Sports Picks & Predictions

I'm playing on JACKSONVILLE. The Bears are coming off an impressive Monday night win. However, they're now playing a second straight road game and doing so on a short week. That's a bigger deal than it may sound like.

Everyone's pretty high on the Bears after the Monday night win. However, it should be noted that they're actually being outgained by a 375.5 to 264.4 margin in their road games.

It should also be noted that Cutler is 0-2 against the Jaguars.

The only time that the Bears played road games in back to back weeks last season, the second game was decided by four points. The last time that the played a road game, after playing on the previous Monday, they lost 17-3.

I expect the Jags to be at their best and won't be surprised if they find a way to score the outright upset. *10 Best Bet

I'm playing on PITTSBURGH. I had the Eagles (and the Under) in last week's 19-17 victory over the Giants. I also played against the Steelers in their last game, a 34-31 loss at Oakland. This one sets up nicely for Pittsburgh though.



While Philadelphia is off a hard-fought and emotional win over the defending champions, the Steelers had last week off.



Note that the Steelers are 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS the last three times they were coming off a bye, going 20-9 SU their last 29.



The Eagles have failed to cover in each of their road games. They barely squeaked by Cleveland (17-16) and got blown out (27-6) at Arizona.



The Steelers crushed the Jets (27-10) in their lone home game. They're 15-4 SU here the past 2+ seasons, going 13-6 at the betting window.



The Eagles are just 4-6 ATS their last 10 against AFC opponents. During that stretch, the Steelers were 6-3 ATS against NFL foes. With the venue and schedule in their favor, I expect the Steelers to improve on those stats Sunday afternoon. *9

I'm playing on KC. The Ravens come in with a 3-1 record while the Chiefs are only 1-3. While the Ravens will surely be a popular pick amongst recreational bettors, I feel the underdog is offering plenty of value.

Admittedly, the Ravens are a bit of a "scary" or intimidating team, as they are indeed very capable. That causes many bettors to avoid betting against them and/or to bet on them. I feel they can often be over-valued. I successfully played against them in their ATS loss vs. Cleveland and feel that they'll be in for another battle.

While two of their three wins have been close, the Ravens have thrived at home, going 3-0. However, they lost their lone road game, a 1-point loss at Philadelphia.

The Ravens like to run a no-huddle offense. That can be tough when playing at a loud road venue - and Arrowhead is known for being "hostile."

Admittedly, its been a tough start for the Chiefs. They did beat the Saints though and they are typically competitive against good teams. They're 7-4 ATS the last 2+ seasons against teams with a winning record.

The Ravens are 6-9-1 ATS their last 16 off back to back SU victories. Each of their last three have been decided by seven or less, two of them by a point. Grab the generous points. *9

I'm playing on TEXAS. Many bettors are likely going to favor the underdog here. They will see the Mountaineers are coming off a game in which they scored 70 points. They'll see that the Mountaineers have a Heisman Trophy frontrunner at QB. And, they'll see that its the Mountaineers which actually have the higher national ranking. I feel that the Longhorns are favored for good reason though.





While the 70 points are standing out in people's memories, I feel that the Longhorns have done much more thus far. Both teams are 4-0. However, the Longhorns have a 35 point road win over an SEC team (albeit a weak one) AND a road win at Oklahoma State.



That win against the Cowboys was huge. It gives the Longhorns a real shot at playing for the National Title. There are only a few really big tests remaining and this is one of them. Of course, the big one is vs. Oklahoma the following week.



I feel the the Longhorns learned a lesson in 2010. They had a 3-0 record that season and were hosting UCLA in their fourth game, prior to facing Oklahoma in their fifth game. Favored by more than two touchdowns, they got caught looking ahead to the Sooners and got smoked. The Longhorns never recovered that season, finishing 5-7.



Last year's team also started off 3-0, with one game to play before meeting Oklahoma. This time, having learned its lesson the previous year, Texas took care of business, delivering a 37-14 victory as a -9.5 point favorite. Although they still lost vs. the Sooners, the Longhorns at least went into that game with an undefeated record. With the lesson of 2010 still fresh in their memories, I expect Brown's team to avoid any letdown and/or look-ahead here.



The Mountaineers have yet to play a true road game and have been favored by double-digits in every game. Sure, they scored 70 against Baylor. Don't forget, they also allowed 63.



Geno Smith will get all the headlines here. However, Texas also has a very good QB in David Ash. Indeed, Ash has completed 78% of his passes for 1,007 yards (251.8 ypg) and has 10 TDs against only one interception.





This has traditionally been a good role for the Longhorns; they're 9-3-1 ATS the last 13 times that they were listed as home favorites in the -3.5 to -7 range. (During that stretch, the Mountaineers were only 4-7 ATS as road underdogs in the +3.5 to +7 range.)



The Mountaineers had a successful Big 12 debut. Facing a far more formidable opponent and a much better defense, expect them to find the going considerably more difficult here. *10 Main Event

I'm playing on TCU. Ranked #15 in the country, the Horned Frogs are finally getting a little respect. However, as the only school in the entire country currently with a double-digit win streak, they don't believe they're getting enough. Beating up on a mediocre Iowa State team, one which has a deceivingly decent 3-1 record, will look good on their resum

I'm playing on GEORGIA TECH. These teams will be meeting for the fifth time in the last four years. The Yellow Jackets won 31-17 last season and have a 50-25-2 lead in the all-time series. They're getting double-digits here and I feel that's providing us with excellent line value.



Admittedly, the Tigers are dynamic offensively. Facing a defensively-challenged Georgia Tech team, they should score points.



I believe the Yellow Jackets will also have plenty of offensive success though. The Tigers are giving up 438 yards per game (543.5 in conference play!) while the Yellow Jackets are averaging a whopping 329 yards of offense per game on the ground.



While the Yellow Jackets may have been looking ahead to this game last week, the Tigers are off back to back hard-fought road games. They survived some adversity at Boston College last week, playing without star receiver Sammy Watkins. Watkins, who is indeed a very talented player, has been cleared to play this week. However, as can sometimes be the case when a star returns, I won't be surprised if the rest of the unit lets down, if only slightly.



Off an embarrassing loss, I don't expect that to be an issue for the well-coached Yellow Jackets. As Paul Johnson noted about the game vs. Clemson, after last week's loss: "...we have to come out and play a lot harder than we did today, or it could be ugly." I believe he'll have had the ear of his players this week and I look for a much improved effort.



Clemson coach Swinney knows he can expect Georgia Tech's best. He was quoted "This is a team that I know they're coming off a tough loss to Middle Tennessee, but they've had two overtime losses at Virginia Tech and then against Miami. I think everybody knows the kind of team that Georgia Tech is and the kind of coaching staff that they have. We're going to have to play a great game."



While the revenge-minded Tigers would love a big win, keep in mind that Clemson has seen all three of its games against quality opposition decided by 14 points or less. The Tigers did beat Boston College by 14 - however, they were losing that game at halftime. So, it was close. They lost by eight at Florida State and they beat Auburn by seven.



While last week's game got out of hand, G-Tech has also been involved in close games. They've had two blowout wins and two losses by six or less. In their lone road game, they lost by three at Virginia Tech.



With both teams hungry for a win, I feel this one could very well also come down to the wire and I'm grabbing all the points I can get. *10 Best Bet

I'm playing on NAVY. I won with Air Force when these teams met last season. Navy was a 3-point favorite but the Falcons pulled off a 35-34 upset. Despite that setback, the Midshipmen are still a profitable 8-2 ATS the last 10 in the series. In a game that could easily again come down to the wire, I feel that they're providing us with very fair value.



While it hasn't been the case so far this season, Navy has long been a strong underdog, going 62-30-2 ATS its last 94 when getting points.



On the other hand, the Falcons are just 6-14 ATS the last 20 times that they were laying points. Note that they're only 4-10 ATS their last 14 home lined games.



Admittedly, Navy has gotten off to a disappointing start. However, this was supposed to be an improved Navy team from last season. And remember, the Midshipmen were favored against AF last year.



Keep in mind that two of Navy's losses came against Notre Dame (at Ireland) and at Penn State. So, there was no real shame in losing those games. Losing at home against SJ State wasn't too good. However, the Spartans nearly did the same thing to Stanford and the Midshipmen were underdogs in that game. So, that loss was somewhat excusable too. They won their only other game by a score of 41-3.



Air Force has the better 2-2 record. Its loss vs. Michigan was certainly excusable. However, losing at UNLV wasn't too good - the Rebels are a bad team and AF was lying -10.5 points in that game. The only two wins came against Idaho State and Colorado State, a pair of bad teams. So, really, this team has done nothing. At least, not yet.



Last year wasn't the first close game between these teams. In fact, each of the last four games was decided by eight points or less. Eight of the last nine meetings have been decided by eight or fewer points and all nine of those were decided by 11 or less. Also, the last four meetings in Colorado Springs were ALL decided by a TD or less.



While the Air Force offense has been quite potent, the defense is giving up more than 435 yards per game. I expect that to be just what the doctor ordered for Navy. In another game that could easily come down to the wire, I'm grabbing all the points I can get. *9

I'm playing on PITTSBURGH. The Orange opened as underdogs and are now small favorites. I feel the initial line was more accurate though and disagree with the line move.

After an awful 0-2 start, the Panthers have recovered. (Remember, they were adjusting to a new coach.) This is a team which brought back 14 starters and was expected to be good. They lost badly the last time they were on National TV and will be looking to show the country that they're better than that.

There's nothing particularly impressive about the Panthers' 55-0 beatdown of Gardner Webb, as that was to be expected. Still, that type of blowout victory can build a team's confidence. The 35-17 destruction of Virginia Tech WAS impressive, far more so than anything that the 1-3 Orange have accomplished.

Syracuse has one win and it came against 1-AA Stony Brook. (The Orange won by 11 as a 21.5 pt fav) There's nothing to be ashamed of about their double-digit loss vs. USC. However, losses against Northwestern and Minnesota are telling.

On the season, the Orange have turned the ball over 10 times and are averaging nine penalties per game.

While the pointspread won't likely be a factor here, note that the Panthers are 5-2-1 ATS the last eight times that they played a game with a line in the -3 to +3 range. During that stretch, the Orange were just 3-8 SU/ATS when doing so.

The Panthers have dominated this series in recent years. Meeting for the last time as Big East rivals, I expect them to continue that dominance Friday night. *9

I'm playing on UTAH. I won with the Utes against BYU as home underdogs but successfully played against them at Utah State, as road favorites. The Utes are home underdogs again here, one of their best roles, and I again feel that they're providing us with excellent value.

As always, USC has excellent athletes. Really, this team is loaded - on both sides of the ball. Still, being asked to lay two TDs on the road - at a venue like this - is asking a lot.

The Trojans have only played one true road game (Stanford) and they lost that one outright. The Utes are undefeated at home.

The Utes are 48-27 ATS the last 75 times that they were getting points, 6-3 ATS when listed as underdogs in the +10.5 to +21 range.

The Utes lost by only nine points at USC last season. They were only +7.5 point underdogs in that one. Now, they're playing at home AND getting an extra touchdown to boot.

Granted, the Trojans are arguably a better team than they were last season. However, the same can arguably be said of the Utes. Keep in mind that Jordan Wynn was just one of 16 returning starters.

Last year's 9-point USC win was a little deceiving. The score was just 17-14 and Utah was lining up for a 41-yrd field goal to send the game to OT. However, the Trojans blocked the kick and took it 68 yards the other way. (The Pac-12 didn't even announce that the TD counted until long after the Coliseum had emptied; fans thought it didn't count.)

After that game, Utah's first in the conference, coach Kyle Whittingham said. ""It was baptism by fire. We stayed toe-to-toe, but we have to find a way to win close games. ... If you have a group of competitive guys, you want to play the best in the country. Personnel-wise, USC stacks up with anyone in the country."

True, the Utes didn't look too good in their last game getting blown out by Arizona State. That was on the road though - they've 4-2 SU the last six times that they were off a conference loss.

While both teams are off a bye, I feel that the extra time may have helped Utah more. Its given players like star running back John White, junior defensive end Joe Kruger (2.5 sacks, two forced fumbles) and sophomore safety Eric Rowe more time to heal. Also, off a loss, I feel that the Utes may be more receptive in practice than the Trojans, who could potentially be a little full of themselves.

Utah is 6-1 after byes during Kyle Whittingham

I'm playing on ST. LOUIS. I'm 3-0 in St. Louis games this season. I successfully played against the Rams at Chicago. However, I also backed them in each of their two games here at St. Louis. I feel that this will be another good spot to do so.

There's no denying that the Cardinals are off to a great start. They're one of only three undefeated teams and they've got wins over the likes of New England and Philadelphia.

Only one of those wins has come on the road though, which means that the Rams' 2-0 home record is actually stronger than the Cards' 1-0 record outside of the desert.

It should also be noted that the Cards are being outgained by an average of 357.2 to 271.1 per game, in terms of total yards of offense. They were outgained 387-245 in their lone road game. (The Rams are outgaining teams by a 369-349 margin here at St. Louis.)

I feel that the short week will favor the home team. The Rams played an early game last Sunday, right here at St. Louis. The Cards played a later game on Sunday and it went to OT. That put them an extra 4 hours behind the Rams right there - and then they had to travel to St. Louis and get adjusted to being there.

While teams typically watch film and get treatments for injuries and soreness on Monday (and the often take Tuesday off) the he Rams were already back at work Sunday night. They were on back into field work Monday.

As St. Louis defensive end Chris Long noted: "Short weeks are less than ideal, but both teams are dealing with it. It's just going to be about who prepares better and who takes care of their bodies better and who adapts better."

While its only a matter of hours, I really do think that avoiding travel and the small amount of extra prep time will serve the Ram well here.

Long went on to say: "I'd like to think that we've got a lot of hard workers and smart guys in here, even though we have young guys, guys who are willing to make those sacrifices that will get you back to your equilibrium by Thursday."

After Monday's practice, Jeff Fisher had this to say: "The guys, they worked the soreness out and they're ready to go. By Thursday night, they're excited to be able to play. It's prime time and we hope things work out well for us.''

Arizona wants this game, obviously. However, the Rams need it more. This is a chance to move above .500 and for them to be right in the thick of the division race. The fans will be extremely fired up, as will the players.

While the Cards were 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS in October the past couple of seasons, the Rams were a surprising 5-4 ATS and 4-5 SU. With both the venue and schedule in their favor, I expect the Rams to improve on those stats with an "upset" win. *10 Best Bet

I'm playing on FIU. The Golden Panthers have been good to me so far this season. I won with "over" in their first game, a loss at Duke. Note that the Golden Panthers racked up more than 500 yards in offense in that one, enjoying a significant edge in that department. I also backed them as underdogs in games at UCF and vs. Louisville. They lost those games but earned the cover in each. I feel that this will be a great spot for them to break through with an outright win.



Arkansas State was the best team in this conference last season. However, I don't believe that's the case this season. The Red Wolves are already 0-1 in conference play, losing at home to Western Kentucky. Sure, they've got two wins. However, those wins both came at home and they came against Alcorn State and Memphis. They were favored by 23.5 and 39.5 points in those games. So, wins were expected. (They did blow out 1-AA Alcorn State but won by only five against Memphis.)



While the Red Wolves suffered major personnel losses from last season, the Golden Panthers brought back many returning starters. They were picked by many before the season began to win this conference and they've had this game circled since the schedule came out. They'll be looking for some payback from a loss at Arkansas State last season, a game which was tied at halftime. Now, an FIU team which is arguably stronger than it was last season gets to play at home against an Arkansas St team which is arguably weaker than it was last season.



While a healthy Medlock may have been preferred at QB, I feel that E.J. Hilliard (25-of-36, 286 yards) will prove capable.



The Golden Panthers are only 1-4 this season but they're 1-1 at home. They're lone home loss came against a good Louisville team though. And, as I mentioned, they had a big yardage edge on Duke in the loss there. I expect them to be sky high for this one, dropping the Red Wolves to 9-20 the last 29 times that they played a game with a line in the -3 to +3 range. *10

I'm playing on DALLAS. I won with the Bears last game. However, that was at home against the Rams. Plus, in addition to having homefield advantage, the Bears also had some extra preparation for that game. Stepping up in class and now playing at a difficult road venue, I expect the Bears to find the going much tougher here.



Some may feel that the Bears have been the more impressive team thus far. After all, they're 2-1 ATS while the Cowboys are 1-2 ATS. However, we have to consider the schedules. The Bears two wins both came at home and they came against the likes of Indianapolis and St. Louis, last year's two very worst teams.



The Cowboys did get blown out at Seattle - that was a difficult spot (you may remember we played against them there) though as they were off the emotional win over the defending champion Giants, while playing far from home.



Contrary to popular opinion, the Cowboys' two victories were actually quite impressive. They went on the road and beat the defending champions, outplaying them in the process. Last tame, they limited the Bucs to a mere 166 total yards of offense.



While the Cowboys are outgaining opponents by a 342-250 margin, the Bears are only outgaining opponents by a 290-279 margin.



Even after the victory last time out, Cutler acknowledged the Bears' offense is still a work in progress. He was quoted saying: "Right now we're just learning the offense. Everyone's getting comfortable. We're finding our identity. Offensive coordinator Mike Tice is still finding his identity as a play-caller ... "



Note that Forte, a big part of the Chicago offense and a player who scored an important fourth quarter TD last time these teams met, is questionable.



Forte practiced Wednesday and proclaimed himself ready to go. However, Lovie Smith noted that he "still has a long ways to go."



When these teams faced each other here two seasons ago, the line was Dallas -7. The Bears won that game. However, it was the Cowboys who had a 374-270 advantage in total yards.



With their improved defense, I feel that the Cowboys are actually a better team than they were in that 2010 meeting. Yet, we're getting them at a far more reasonable line. I feel that's providing us with excellent value. Lay the points. *10

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. I'll admit that Eli has been better than Vick thus far. I'll also admit that the Giants were the superior team last time out. However, the fact is that both teams are 2-1.



The Eagles' loss came on the road and against an undefeated Arizona team which has been playing surprisingly well. They beat Baltimore in their only home game - and the Ravens are among the best teams in the league.



I'd argue that win over the Ravens was more impressive than either of the Giants' victories, which came against a pair of teams which were a combined 10-22 last season. Note that Philadelphia outagained Baltimore by a 486-325 margin in that game



As you probably saw, the Giants were outplayed by the Cowboys in their lone game against a team which was .500 or better last season



While the Giants have converted more of the opportunities, looking more closely at total yards per game shows that both teams are actually very close. The Giants are averaging an impressive 426 per game, 405 on the road. Yet, the Eagles aren't far behind. They're averaging 416.7 per game, 486 at home.



However, on the other side of the ball, the Eagles have a significant advantage. They're allowing 275.7 per game while the Giants are allowing 355.7.



While I already acknowledged the Manning had been better than Vick thus far, that doesn't mean he's going to be better today. Vick, still an amazing athlete, has a lot to prove. Facing the champs on National TV, I expect him to elevate his game.



The Eagles have quietly dominated the Giants, going 7-1 SU/ATS the last eight meetings. I have a feeling they continue that dominance Sunday night. *10

I'm playing on TAMPA BAY. Based at least partially on Robert Griffin III putting up big numbers in his first game, many probably feel that the Redskins have been a more impressive team than the Bucs. I'm not one of them.
The Bucs did lose both their road games. However, both those losses came by less than a touchdown and they came against a pair of tough NFC East teams, New York and Dallas. They won their only home game, taking care of business against Carolina.
While the Skins opening victory over the Saints seemed pretty impressive at the time, with the Saints still winless, that win doesn't seem quite as special anymore. The Skins have since lost vs. the Bengals and Rams.
While the Skins have been better offensively, the Bucs have been better defensively. Washington is allowing 33.7 points per game. Tampa is allowing just 22.3. Washington's 10 touchdown passes allowed is the most in the league.
Everyone is a bit down on Tampa QB Freeman at the moment. However, coach Schiano had this to say: "I have a great trust level with him. There's not a doubt in my mind he's going to do great this year and beyond."
I agree with Schiano and think people shouldn't over-react to the poor offensive production - again, their last two games came on the road against tough NFC East foes.
The Bucs are a perfect 6-0 their last six regular season home games against the Skins. I feel their advantage on the defensive side of the ball will help make it seven straight. *10 Personal Fav

I'm playing on OAKLAND. I won with the Raiders last week. At the time, they were winless and facing Pittsburgh. Many were writing them off. I stated the following though:

"Admittedly, the Raiders haven't looked too good so far this season. Admittedly, the Steelers are a tough opponent. That said, I like the Raiders to bounce back with their best game. Off to an 0-2 start and with back to back difficult road games on deck, the Raiders know they can't afford another loss here - or the season could/will quickly become a write-off. It wasn't supposed to be this way though. Not this season. Some of you may recall that I backed the Raider in Week 3 of the preseason, the week when the starters see the most time. The Raiders were hosting the Lions. In my analysis on Oakland at the time, I included the following quote from Oakland's Michael Huff: 'We want to show everybody that this is the new Raiders. We're going to put that on film every Sunday

I'm playing on the NEW YORK JETS. Not many people are giving the Jets much of a chance here. They can't get over the bad preseason or the loss of Revis. Many of the same people are convinced that the 49'ers are the best team in the league. With that being the general perception of this game, we're able to get the Jets, plus more than a field goal, at home. With all due respect to the 49'ers, I feel this is giving us excellent value with the Jets.



Everyone thought the 49'ers were invincible before last week's game. What happened? Playing an early game in the Eastern Time Zone, against a mediocre opponent, they were beaten soundly.



With that result, the 49ers are just 7-11 ATS on the road the past 2+ seasons, going 8-10 SU. On the other hand, the Jets were dominant (48-28) in their only home game. They're 12-5 SU here the past 2+ seasons. Two of those five losses came by four points or less, too.



Note that each of the 49'ers last seven road wins has come by single-digits. Two of those came by less than a field goal.



Everyone's talking about the Jets losing the game Revis missed. However, keep in mind that was at Pittsburgh with the Steelers coming off a loss. There's a pretty good chance that the Jets were going to lose that one even if Revis played.



A closer look reveals that the Jets are actually 3-1 when Revis hasn't started and that the defense has actually really elevated its game, rising to the challenge. In four games where Revis didn't play at all, they allowed only 17.75 points per game and a total of just 288 yards per game. So, while Revis is an excellent player, contrary to popular belief, this Jets defense is capable of rising to the challenge in his absence.



As coach Ryan said."This is a team game, and as a team, we've got to step it up. Ithink we'll respond. We certainly have to accept the challenge, and we're going to come out and compete. We might do it a little differently, but we're certainly going to give it our best shot, without question."

I expect the Jets to win outright but will gladly improve my chances even further by grabbing the generous points. *10 Best Bet

I'm playing on ST LOUIS. I played against the Rams last week. That was at Chicago though and they were catching the Bears off a loss and with extra preparation time. This week's game sets up far more favorably.



This time, the Rams' opponent is off an "emotional" last second victory and is playing on a short week. Throw in the fact that the Seahawks are a West Coast based team playing in an early Eastern time zone game and this becomes quite a difficult scheduling spot for the visitors.



Yet, the Seahawks are the team laying a field goal. Including this season's loss at Arizona, note that they're 0-2 ATS the past couple of seasons, as road favorites of three or less.



Overall, this team is only 5-13 SU on the road, including 2-9 (2-8-1 ATS) when playing a road game with an O/U line ranging between 38.5 and 42.



While I did successfully play against the Rams in their last game, I also successfully play on them in their lone home game. They beat an over-rated Washington team outright in that game. With the schedule strongly in their favor, I expect them to do the same to an over-rated Seattle team this afternoon. *9

I'm playing on WISCONSIN. I feel that this line is too high. Both teams are 3-1. Yet, because the Huskers have won in more impressive fashion, they're getting a lot more respect than the Badgers here.

True, the victories have been impressive. However, keep in mind that Nebraska was favored by more than 20 points in all three of those games. The Huskers were supposed to win those in blowout fashion. The only time that they faced a quality opponent (UCLA) they lost by six.

The Badgers also lost a close road game against a Pac-12 school. But because their three wins have been close, they're getting run through the mud. That close game experience can be beneficial though - and it should be noted that the win against Utah State came against arguably a more talented opponent than the Huskers have beaten yet this season.

The Badgers, who hammered the Huskers last season, have won five straight conference games, going 14-3 their last 17 conference games. I believe they're better than people realize and feel that their talented defense will serve them well, when trying to cover a large number. (The Badgers are 13-6-1 ATS the last 20 times that they were underdogs of greater than eight points.)

Coach Bielema noted: "It's a tremendous challenge to go on the road and win the way you want to in this league so that's an opportunity that we have in front of us. We get better every week, the team has the right attitude, like I said I don't have any worries about the way guys handle their work during the course of the week and we will see where we are Saturday."

The Badgers are 4-1 ATS the last five times that they were getting points. All four of their games have been decided by 11 or fewer points and three were decided by five or less. In another game that could easily come down to the wire, I'm grabbing all the points I can get. *10 Main Event

I'm playing on SOUTH FLORIDA. The Seminoles are a talented team. However, I don't feel that they should be laying more than two touchdowns here.
The Bulls check in with a disappointing 2-2 record and off back to back losses. Note that both losses came by 10 points or less.
Off an impressive win at Nevada, the Bulls moved to 2-0 after two games. However, they had to play their next game on a short week and were upset by Rutgers. For a team that had dreams of being 4-0 heading into this week's showdown vs. Florida State, the loss at Rutgers was disappointing. Still thinking about the Rutgers loss and possibly looking ahead to the Seminoles, the Bulls suffered a letdown were upset at Ball State last week. This is still a solid team and I expect them to be much better here.
Florida State coach Jimbo Fisher knows the Bulls are no joke. He said the following: ''I don't look at this as a lesser game. I think South Florida is an extremely talented football team. ... They have guys on their team from when they defeated us,'' adding that the Bulls won't be in awe of the favored Seminoles because many players from the teams have known each other since they were high school prospects. ''In their mind, that gives them more motivation and more energy to try to knock you off I don't think there's any doubt...''
When Fisher refers to "the team that beat them," he's referring to the 2009 Bulls which upset the Seminoles. A 14-point underdog, the Bulls won by 10.
South Florida QB BJ Daniels, a Tallahassee native, was a red-shirt freshman at the time. Now a senior, Daniels is a dual threat, that can beat you with both is arm and his legs. He's already thrown for 1,142 yards and nine touchdowns while running for 199 yards.
The Bulls have beaten the likes of Notre Dame and Miami under Holtz and will go into this game thinking upset.
Coach Holtz had this to say of this week's game: "...we've played in some big football games in the past. I don't think the players will be intimidated. They're excited about the opportunity. They understand the last couple of weeks we have not played stellar football, and this is an opportunity to go out and perform against a Top 5 team.''

While this game is huge for the Bulls, its not such a big deal for the Seminoles. They're off a big conference win last time out and have another one on deck.

The Bulls are 7-3 ATS their last 10 against teams from the ACC. They're also 8-3 ATS the last 11 times that they were underdogs of greater than eight points. I expect them to be ready and for them to provide their "rivals" a much tougher game than most will be expecting. *10 Best Bet

I'm playing on CALIFORNIA. I believe that getting the Bears at home in the pick'em range offers excellent value.

A big reason for the low line is California's 1-3 record. However, the fact it that the Bears were only "supposed" to be 2-2. So, 1-3 isn't that far off.

The game that the Bears lost, which they were expected to win, was the opener vs. Nevada. In case you haven't noticed, the Wolfpack are a pretty good team though. (They just scored 69 points and are averaging better than 44.) So, while the Bears should have beaten them - it was never going to be a cakewalk. Plus, playing a team's first game can be difficult.

The other two losses both came on the road and they were against Ohio State and USC. So, there's no shame in either of those losses. In fact, they almost beat the Buckeyes. Then, after leaving it all out on the field in that game, they were beaten more soundly at USC.

They're back home now though and I expect the Bears to wake up from their "hibernation." Facing Arizona State should help.

While the Sun Devils have played rather well at home, they lost their only road game. They're 3-9 on the road the past few seasons. This is still an inexperienced team (fewest returning starters in the Pac-12) with a new coach. I don't expect road victories to come easily.

Admittedly, the Sun Devils defense has played well. Give them credit for that. However, lets not get carried away.

Keep in mind the following, the three 1A teams that the Sun Devils have faced were Illinois, Missouri and Utah. Those teams entered the season expecting to have Nathan Scheelhaase, James Franklin and Jordan Wynn. In the case of the first two (Franklin and Scheelhaase) both those QBs played the previous week, meaning that both Missouri and Illinois faced ASU with QBs making their first ever start, with offenses that had worked with the presumed starter all fall.

In other words, those impressive Arizona State defensive numbers have gone up against offenses which weren't at their best. Their secondary has yet to be tested - and it will be on Saturday

The Bears are 8-1 in nine meetings with the Sun Devils since Tedford became coach, including 4-0 the last four. They won those games by an average of 14 points, including an 11-point win at Arizona St. last season.

Having lost that game vs. Nevada, the Bears know this is essentially as must-win game, if they want to go to to a bowl. They've still got UCLA, Stanford and Oregon to go - plus games against Washington State, Utah and Oregon State all come on the road. Again, they can ill-afford another loss. Desperate for a win, I expect the Bears to rise to the occasion and continue their dominance in the series. *10 Personal Favorite

I'm playing on IOWA. A lot of bettors are probably going to be tempted to grab the points here. They'll look at this matchup, see Minnesota's 4-0 record against Iowa's 2-2 mark and they'll assume that the Gophers are the better team. That perception and those records have kept the line on Iowa reasonably low. Given that I expect the Hawkeyes to bounce back with a double-digit win, I feel that's providing us with excellent value.



Give the Gophers credit for the 4-0 start. Wins are wins, no matter who they come against. However, a closer look reveals that three of those wins came at home, none of them against elite teams, and that the only road win came at UNLV, in Week 1. The Rebels were considered so weak that the Gophers were favored by -9.5 points in that one. Yet, they won by only three, doing so in triple-OT. The three home wins came against New Hampshire, Western Michigan and Syracuse. Again, not exactly teams that we'll be expecting to see on New Year's Day. So, let's not get too carried away by the 4-0 start. (There's a reason why they didn't receive a single vote in this week's AP poll.)



While the Hawkeyes are certainly disappointed with their 2-2 start, Kirk Farentz's team is typically at its best off a loss. Indeed, the Hawkeyes are an outstanding 35-15 ATS their last 50 times line games off a SU loss. Even with a few non-covers so far this season, they're still 18-8 ATS the last 25 times that they failed to cover their previous game.



The Gophers won the last two games in this series. Both those were at Minnesota though. The Hawkeyes have dominated the meetings at Iowa, winning five straight and eight of nine. They were 7-2 ATS in those games, too.



A look at the recent pointspreads in this series shows that the Hawkeyes were favored by at least 13 points in each of the last three meetings, as well as each of the last two here at Iowa.



I'm not getting too carried away wth the non-conference records. This is the beginning of conference play and I expect Ferentz's Hawkeyes to bounce back, as they usually do off a loss, with a solid win an cover. *9

I'm playing on BYU. The Cougars have treated me well so far this season. I successfully played on them when they blew out Washington State in their opener. I also successfully played against them when they lost outright at Utah. Last week, they covered for me at Boise, losing by a single point. While that was a difficult loss, Friday's matchup should provide an excellent opportunity to right the ship with a blowout win.



I successfully played against Hawaii last week. I felt Nevada, which hadn't won on the Island since the 1940s, was going to be really motivated. I also felt that the Warriors were going to be over-matched. That certainly proved to be the case. Playing in front of their own home fans, Hawaii was beaten by 45 points.



It appears that Taysom Hill will be getting the start at QB. (Note that it was Hill who drove for the TD against Boise.) That's fine with me. But I'd have been fine with Nelson, too. Either way, I expect the offense to have success against a Hawaii defense which gave up 69 points and nearly 600 yards of offense.



I quite like the fact that the Cougars played on 9/20 while the Warriors played a very late game on 9/22, at Hawaii.



While the spread may seem high, note that BYU is 3-0 SU/ATS the last three times it was favored in the -21.5 to --31 range.



The Cougars have dominated the Warriors in recent years including a 21-point win at Hawaii last season. I believe the talent gap, or at least the "playing ability," between the teams is currently even wider. Catching the Warriors on a short week and now facing them at home, I expect the Cougars to deliver an even bigger blowout. *10

I'm playing on CLEVELAND. Obviously, the Ravens are pretty good. I think this is too many points for them to be laying though.



Each of Baltimore's last two games have been decided by a single point. Even though this is a TV game, off those hard-fought emotional games and playing on a short week, while also dealing with added emotion surrounding the death of Torrey Smith's brother, I feel it may be hard for the Ravens to fully "get up" for lowly Cleveland.



True, the Browns are off to a disappointing 0-3 start. That should ensure that they're "desperate" here though. Another loss and their season really is a "write-off."



Although the Browns are winless, they have been competitive. All three of their losses came by 10 points or less and two of them came by seven or less.



Speaking of "close games," the Ravens and Browns often seem to play close games against each other. All four meetings since 2010 have been decided by 14 points or less. The two games here at Baltimore were both decided by seven or less.



While the offense has certainly been clicking, the vaunted Ravens defense, still without Suggs, is giving up more than 400 yards per game.



The Ravens are 1-5 ATS the last six times that they were double-digit favorites. During that stretch, the Browns are 4-2 ATS as double-digit underdogs. I'm grabbing all the points I can get. *9 Best Bet

I'm playing on GREEN BAY. Many of you know that I have a soft spot in my heart for home underdogs. Four of my six plays yesterday were "sides." All four of those were home teams and three of them were underdogs. All four of those teams covered the spread for me and the three underdogs (Tennessee, Minnesota, Oakland) all won outright.
I've already nailed numerous home underdogs in college too, including outright winners on Arizona over Oklahoma State, Utah State over Utah and Utah over BYU, just to name a few. This past Saturday, I covered with home underdogs Colorado State and FIU, the latter for the second straight week. I even had Seattle in last week's victory here over Dallas. The point that I'm trying to make is that I fully understand the importance of playing at home.
Having spent considerable time in Seattle and having attended several games here, I'm also well aware that this is no easy venue. Seattle fans love their Seahawks and take pride in being as loud as they can. They'll surely be fired up here.
While there's no doubt that the Seahawks are a better team here than they are on the road, all that fan support can only take a team so far.
When I can play on a road team which I feel is superior, when the line is smaller than I think it should be and I when I believe that other situational factors are in my favor, I won't hesitate to go against my "home underdog nature" and back the road favorite. (That was the case Saturday night at Hawaii, when I backed road favorite Nevada, which won by 45.)
In this case, I do feel that the Packers are the superior team. The Seahawks (and the NFC West) have come a long way - but the Packers are still an elite team - and I feel they've got a score to settle against this division, after getting upset by the 49'ers in Week 1.
I like Pete Carroll and think he's doing a great job with this team. However, for my money, Mike McCarthy is about as good as it gets. He was one of the big reasons I rode the Packers to the Super Bowl a couple of years ago. He and his coaching staff have had plenty of extra time to prepare as the Packers' last played way back on 9/13. I expect them to be extremely well prepared.
Of course, having a QB like Rodgers helps. After back to back sub-bar outings and an "incident" with teammate James Jones, I believe Rodgers and co. are ready to explode. The Monday night stage provides the perfect opportunity.
While the Seahawks defense did admittedly play well against the Cowboys, I expect Rodgers to have considerably more success. He's 2-0 against the Seahawks, both wins were by double-digits.
As for the Packers defense, they were dominant last time out - every bit as good as Seattle's effort vs. Dallas.
The Packers know how to win on the road. They're 13-6 SU and 11-8 ATS away from Lambeau the past couple of seasons. This game kicks-off a stretch where they play four of five on the road. With McCarthy having the extra time to have them ready, I expect the Packers to kick-off that stretch with a win and cover. *10 Main Event

I'm playing on OAKLAND. Admittedly, the Raiders haven't looked too good so far this season. Admittedly, the Steelers are a tough opponent. That said, I like the Raiders to bounce back with their best game.

Off to an 0-2 start and with back to back difficult road games on deck, the Raiders know they can't afford another loss here - or the season could/will quickly become a write-off.

It wasn't supposed to be this way though. Not this season. Some of you may recall that I backed the Raider in Week 3 of the preseason, the week when the starters see the most time. The Raiders were hosting the Lions. In my analysis on Oakland at the time, I included the following quote from Oakland's Michael Huff:

'We want to show everybody that this is the new Raiders. We're going to put that on film every Sunday

I'm playing on CHICAGO. I won with the Rams last week and I'll likely back them again in certain spots throughout the season. Last week's game was against Washington though, a team with a rookie QB making his first start on the road and a team which I felt was over-valued off its Week 1 upset of the Saints. Now playing at a difficult road venue, I expect the Rams to find things much more difficult this week.

The Bears come in angry. They weren't happy with their performance at Green Bay and have in a foul mood about it ever since. Cutler has been vocal about his displeasure and I expect him to lead by example with a big effort here.

The fact that the Bears played on a Thursday should serve them well here. Not only have they had more time to build up their anger over last week's win, they've had more time to gameplan for the Rams.

Give the Rams credit for a nice comeback last week and don't expect them to be pushovers. Do keep in mind that they're still 3-14 on the road the past 2+ seasons though. Even with the cover at Detroit in Week 1, they're still 7-10 ATS in those games.

While both teams have possible question marks with their running backs, I've long been of the mind that most backs in this league are pretty good. With a few notable exceptions, one's essentially as good as another. So, that's not a factor in this play.

The Bears have beaten the Rams three straight times. Those wins all came by a minimum of eight points. The scores were 42-27, 27-3 and 17-9. Going back further finds that Chicago is 4-1 ATS this millennium against St. Louis.

More importantly, the Bears are also 4-0 SU the past couple of seasons off a divisional loss, covering in three of those games. The last time that they played a home game, following a divisional loss, they won by a score of 39-10. I expect another double-digit win here. *10 Personal Favorite

I'm playing on MINNESOTA. The 49'ers have clearly turned into a pretty good team, perhaps even a very good one. However, I'm not willing to anoint them as the "best in the league" or "conference" yet. That's what many seem to be doing though. In fact, I'm personally not even willing to just hand them the NFC West either. (There's still A LOT of football to be played!) Even if the 49'ers do prove to be as good as they appear to be after (only) two games, I still feel that they're presently over-valued. I also feel that this will be a dangerous spot for them.



Off back to back "high profile" wins, it should be easy for the 49'ers to overlook the "lowly" Vikings, or at least let their guard down - if only slightly. After all, they beat the mighty Packers at Lambeau in Week 1 and then proceeded to win on National TV against Jim Schwartz and the Lions. With all the extra attention placed on the "handshake," that was certainly a big game, too.



The Vikings are no slouches though and should not be overlooked. They won their lone home game and they lost their only road game by three points.



While the 49'ers are a very good a defensive team, they're still not necessarily an offensive juggernaut. Rather, they've got an "efficient" offense. Teams like that can have trouble covering large pointspreads, particularly away from home.



Note that the 49'ers are 8-9 SU and 7-10 ATS their last 17 away from San Francisco and that only one of those victories came by greater than eight points - and that was back in 2010.



Of course, it should also be mentioned that the 49'ers are a West Coast team playing an early game in the East, the first time that they will do so this season.



While both SF's games have been decided by single digits, the Vikings have seen both games decided by a field goal. Even coach Frazier acknowledged: "The way our team is built, we're going to play a lot of close games." I'm grabbing all the points I can get. *10 Best Bet

I'm playing on TENNESSEE. While I'm off to a strong start to the season, the Titans haven't done me any favors. Getting more than a field goal at home, in what has really become a must win game, I'm ready to give them another shot this afternoon though.

While the Lions are obviously a much better team than they were for most of the last two decades, they've been far from dominant this season. The only won by four against St. Louis and they lost by eight at San Francisco. Off that "emotional" (due to the handshake as it was on primetime) loss and with a divisional game on deck, playing their second straight road game is likely going to be tough.

The Lions, a dome team, are 2-7 ATS the last nine times that the were listed as road favorites in the -3.5 to -7 range.

During that stretch, the Titans were 8-4 ATS as home underdogs in the +3.5 to +7 range.

After back to back losses against two of the AFC's best (Pats and Chargers) the Titans should be happy to host an NFC team. They're 38-17-6 ATS their last 61 against NFC teams, 5-2-1 ATS the last couple of seasons.

With back to back road games on deck, followed by Pittsburgh after that, the Titans can't afford another loss here. I expect their best effort and for that to lead to AT LEAST a cover. *9

I'm playing on NEVADA. I watched the Wolfpack play here last Christmas Eve at the Hawaii Bowl. The Wolfpack didn't win SU but did cover the spread for me. That was against a fairly tough Southern Miss. squad though. This game comes against a less talented Hawaii squad. This time, I expect the Wolfpack to earn BOTH the win and the cover.



Having been here less than a year ago, the Wolfpack should be less susceptible to the "island's distractions." Having lost the bowl game here and having been upset by the Warriors here in 2010, I expect a very determined effort to come away with a victory this time.



That 2010 Hawaii team had won three in a row when it faced Nevada and was a confident group. The Wolfpack were off to their best start since becoming an FBS program some 18 years before that - and were upset 27-21. While they did beat the Warriors by 14 (at Nevada) last year, coach Ault won't let his players forget the 2010 loss.



An outright win its in only road game, against a fairly good (California) opponent, shows that the Wolfpack know how to win away from home. It was no fluke either. They ran for 220 yards while passing for 230 mark (25 0f 32!) while holding the Bears to 110 yards rushing and an 18 for 38 mark through the air.



Hawaii hasn't given us much to work with yet. The Warriors were blown out by USC, as expected. Then, they blew out Lamar, also as expected. Keep in mind that an inexperienced offense is still learning new schemes while the defense returned only two starters from last season.



I feel that the Wolfpack are the more complete team, on both sides of the ball. While the line has dropped to single-digits, I expect a double-digit win. *10 Personal Favorite

I'm playing on SAN DIEGO STATE. I've already won with the Spartans twice this season. I had them when they nearly upset Stanford and again last week, when they blew out Colorado State. I expect this to be their toughest match yet though and feel that the value now lies in going against them.

Adjusting to the loss of their QB and facing a fairly tough opponent on the road, the Aztecs lost their first game, 21-12 at Washington. They did cover the spread in that one though. The offense has come to life the last two games, scoring 42 and 49 points. That should give them plenty of confidence here.

Yes, the Spartans did nearly score an improbable upset at Stanford. That seems even more impressive now that the Cardinal have beaten USC. However, the fact is that SJ State was catching the Cardinal playing the first game of the season and playing their first game without Luck. The Cardinal were still "going through the motions" a bit while SJ State came ready to play. I don't expect the Aztecs to take them lightly.

While the Spartans do have a winning pointspread on the road the past few seasons, a closer look shows that they're actually only 2-18 SU their last 20 road games. All but two of those 18 losses came by a minimum of three points. I mention the SU record, as this line is low enough that a SU win has a strong chance in also resulting in an ATS cover.

As for the Aztecs, they're 12-5 their last 17 here and 11 of those wins came by a minimum of five points.

While the offense is starting to adjust to life without Lindley, the Aztec defense ranks 15th in the country, with 8.3 tackles per loss per game.

I look for homefield to prove the difference as the Aztecs improve to 17-3 SU the last 20 times that they were in the favorite role, covering the small number along the way. *9

I'm playing on COLORADO STATE. I successfully played on Utah State a couple of weeks ago while also successfully playing against Colorado State last week. However, this time I feel that the line value and betting situation are in favor of the Rams.



When I took the Aggies, they were listed as home underdogs vs. Utah. After beating the Utes, they did a good job of avoiding a letdown and very nearly won at Wisconsin last time out. However, a narrow 2-point loss may have them wondering "what if" a little here.



Either way, the Aggies are now in rather unfamiliar territory. They're 0-3 ATS the last three times that they were listed as road favorite at -10.5 to -14 point favorites.



During that stretch, the Rams were 4-2 ATS as home underdogs in the +10.5 to +14 range.



Overall, the Aggies are a poor 4-8-1 ATS the last 13 times that they were laying points, 2-7 ATS their last nine against teams with a losing record.



Last year's game was decided by a single point - and that was at Utah State. Including that 35-34 win, the Rams have won four straight in the series. This year's Colorado State squad, while still not a great team, is arguably better than last season's team and now they get to play at home. All things considered, I feel this line is generously high. *10

I'm playing on FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL. In part to their 3-0 record, the Cardinals are laying double-digits in this game. However, I feel that the difference in talent, experience and coaching doesn't warrant such a high number; certainly not on the road.

I respect the Cardinals. In fact, I won with them in their win against Kentucky. That was a fairly impressive win, blowing out a rival by 18 points. However, that was at home and a rebuilding Kentucky team was playing its first game of the season. As predicted, the experienced Cardinals took advantage of that. With Kentucky since having lost at home to Western Kentucky, it again shows that the Wildcats aren't much of a team.

The Cardinals other two wins also both came at home. One was against Missouri State - and they failed to cover. The other was against North Carolina and they won by five, giving up more than 400 yards in the process.

Now, off that narrow conference win, they're playing their first road game of the season. That can be tough in itself. Yet, they're also being asked to lay two touchdowns, which is considerably tougher.

FIU isn't getting much respect, thanks in part to a 1-2 record. The Golden Panthers are perhaps the best team in their conference though and that 1-2 record is a little deceiving. Both losses came on the road - the Golden Panthers dominated one statistically (vs. Duke) and rallied to cover (against a good UCF team) in the other, losing by 13. They also won their only home game.

You may recall that these same two teams faced each other at Louisville last year. I won with the Under in that game and watched the Golden Panthers go on the road and limit the Cardinals to just 17 points. FIU would win that game 24-17.

While Louisville admittedly has a stronger team than it did last season, I believe that the same can be said of this FIU team. Keep in mind that the Golden Panthers returned 17 starters from last year. While Louisville is well coached, I believe the same can be said of FIU, a team which went to a bowl in 2011 after closing the regular season with three straight double-digit wins.

While the Cards are 4-5 ATS the last nine times that they were road favorites in the -10.5 to -14 range, the Golden Panthers are 7-4 ATS the last 11 times that they were underdogs. With last year's upset, they're also 5-1 ATS their last six against the Big East. I'll gladly grab the big points but won't be surprised if they pull off the outright win. *10

I'm playing on BYU. When I played against BYU last week, it wasn't because I didn't feel that the Cougars were a good team. I just felt that the value lay against them. This week, while Boise is always well-coached and talented, I feel that the value lies on the Cougars.



Everyone knows how tough the Broncos are on the blue turf. That's caught up with them at the betting window though. Even with a cover here against Miami Ohio last week, the Broncos are only 4-9 ATS here the past 2+ seasons.



True, the Broncos covered in their opening week loss at Michigan State. However, they were dominated in that game (461-206 in yards) and were fortunate to get the cover.



BYU crushed Washington State and its lone loss (last week's game at Utah) came down to the wire and was decided by three points. This is a team which returned 14 starters from a team which won 10 games last season. They're arguably more talented than they were in 2011.



The same can't be said for the Broncos, that was evident in the game at Michigan State. Indeed, this team returned just seven starters from last year's 12- win team.



The Cougars are a profitable 4-1 ATS the last five times that they were underdogs in the +3.5 to +10 range. I expect them to improve on those stats Thursday. *10

I'm playing on ATLANTA. Both teams were impressive in Week 1. Denver beat a better team than Atlanta did. However, the Falcons won by more and they did so on the road. Again, both looked good.

I feel that the Falcons are the more complete team at the moment though. They've been a strong club for a few years now and Ryan is highly familiar with his offense. This really could be "their year," particularly with the Saints stumbling out of the gate. Beating Peyton Manning on National TV would get them a lot of respect, which they feel they deserve and will also put them squarely in the driver's seat in their division.

Speaking of Ryan, you're probably aware that he practically never loses here. The Falcons are 26-4 in his regular season home starts. With a very low pointspread tonight, a SU win is also likely to result in a cover.

The Falcons are 7-2 against AFC foes the past few seasons, going 6-2-1 at the betting window. On the other hand, while they didn't have Manning, the Broncos were only 2-5-1 ATS against NFC opponents.

The Falcons have been a strong favorite in recent seasons, going 16-8-2 ATS the last 26 times that they were laying points, including 4-2 SU/ATS as a home favorite of three or fewer points. While Manning may be happy to be back in a dome, this one belongs to Ryan. *10 Main Event

I'm playing on TENNESSEE. With the Chargers off a win and the Titans off a blowout loss, many will be looking to back the home favorite here. I'm expecting a very close game though and feel that taking the points will prove to be the way to go.



While the Titans lost, their loss came against the Patriots - a team that can make anybody look bad. Meanwhile, the Chargers won - but that as much about Oakland looking back as them looking good. SD ran the ball 20 times for only 32 yards and even Rivers threw for only 231 with just one one TD. Note that Ryan Matthews remains questionable.



True, Locker's status is also up in the air. However, keep in mind that Hasselbeck is a proven veteran, who has led this team to many wins and who started all 16 games last season. Whichever QB is under center, I feel the Titans will be all right. Of course, a (usually) big-time running attack combined with a (usually) stingy defense will help any QB. Expect the Titans to be better in both those areas this week.



Tennessee hopes to get receiver Kenny Brit and defensive tackle Sen'Derrick Marks back. Both players could help their respective units.



Even with last week's win, the Chargers are still 2-5 ATS in September the last few seasons. Over that stretch, they're also just 11-14 ATS when laying points. With the Chargers playing on a short week, don't be surprised if this one comes right down to the wire. *9

I'm playing on ST. LOUIS. Robert Griffin III and the Redskins shocked the Saints in Week 1. The Rams lost to Detroit. That has many wanting to back the suddenly popular Skins. I feel that's providing us with excellent value on the home underdog.
Yes, the Rams were bad last season. That was partly due to a massive number of injuries. They're already dealing with a few injuries this season. Nothing like last year though. In addition to being healthier, new coach Jeff Fisher has had plenty of success in the past and has breathed some new life into the franchise.
The Skins weren't that much better though. They finished at 5-11. I'm not ready to anoint them as Super Bowl contenders quite yet though. Life isn't always going to be easy for RG3, particularly on the road. Winning on the road is rarely easy. Doing it in back to back weeks is even tougher.
The Skins have been a terrible favorite over the years. They're 1-3 ATS the last four times that they were laying points and a dismal 47-78 ATS the last 125.
The Rams played a good Detroit team tough in Week 1, losing by four on the road. Playing their home opener, they're going to be fired up, as are their fans. I'll happily grab the points but feel the Rams have a great shot at the upset here. *9

I'm playing on SEATTLE. If these teams met here in Week 1, the line wouldn't be nearly so generous. Everyone was high on Seattle after the preseason and down on Dallas. However, public sentiment has quickly shifted. After just a single game, the Cowboys are again "America's Team" while the Seahawks are last month's news. I feel that's an over-reaction and that we're now getting strong value with the home underdog.



Keep in mind that Seattle's Week 1 loss, which came by only four points and which could have easily been a win, came on the road. This team is typically much better in front of its loving fans.



In 17 games here the past couple of seasons, the Hawks are a lucrative 12-5 ATS. That includes a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS record when playing a home game with an O/U line in the 42.5 to 45 range.



As impressive as the Cowboys win was, keep in mind that they're only 2-8 ATS the last 10 times that they were off a division game, including 1-3 ATS when off a divisional win.



The Cowboys are also just 4-15-1 ATS the last 20 times that they were in the favorite role, 0-6-1 ATS the last seven times that they were favored by four or less. Grab the points. *9

I'm playing on the NY GIANTS. The Bucs were the more impressive team in Week 1. They knocked off Carolina while the Giants were busy falling to Dallas. I really like how this one sets up for the champs though.
Note that those results set this one up nicely. Not only should they make the Giants "extremely motivated," they've also kept this line around a touchdown, instead of in the -10 range, where it easily could have been, if the Week 1 results were a little different.
Defending Super Bowl champs rarely lose their opening game. At least, not in recent memory. They generally come out and play like champs, at least for one game. The Giants didn't against Dallas. I expect them to do so here though.
Let's not forget that this is a well-coached team, both talented and proud. With last week's stringing loss to Dallas coming way back on Wednesday, they've had plenty of extra preparation time. Off to an 0-1 start, I believe that its safe to say that they won't take Tampa lightly - the Bucs' victory over Carolina helped ensure that.
Needless to say, the Giants weren't happy with their performance on Opening Night. New York's Justin Tuck comments are reflective of the way the team has viewed that loss: "I haven't slept well, so I think we all are itching to get back on the field ... "

Coach Coughlin added: "You can't lose a game. Everybody's 1-0, and we're 0-1. We have another big game this weekend. That's the great thing about our profession, we get to line up and play again."

Let's also keep in mind that Tampa was just 4-12 last season, getting outscored by a whopping 494-287 margin. No other team allowed as many points. Only St. Louis had a worse "net points" mark. The Rams allowed 214 more points than they scored. The Bucs allowed 207 more. Also, note that the team that the Bucs beat last week (Carolina) was only 6-10 last year. So, lets not get too carried away with this team yet. They Bucs may well be better than last season - how they could not be - but there's a long way to go before we can start considering them a "good" team.
Also, note that the Bucs are 2-7-1 ATS the last 10 times that they were off a division game, including a 1-3 ATS mark off a division win.
More preparation time. More motivation. Home field. Better offense. Better defense. Superior coaching. Add it all up and I expect a double-digit win. *10 Personal Favorite

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. The Ravens were the more impressive team in Game 1. They beat Cincinnati by double-digits while the Eagles barely escaped with a victory against Cleveland. Those results have worked in our favor here. If the Eagles had blown out Cleveland the Ravens had eked out a win (or lost) vs. Cincy, we could have easily been seeing a higher line. Instead, we're able to get Philadelphia, at home, for less than a field goal. With all due respect to the Ravens, I feel that's providing us with excellent value.
Note that the Eagles are 4-2 ATS (5-1 SU) the last six times that they were listed as home favorites of three or fewer points.
True, the Ravens are a good team. I believe the same can be said of the Eagles though.
I also don't believe that coming off a divisional win on a Monday night game is necessarily the best situation for this Baltimore team. Note that the Ravens are 1-2 ATS the last three times that they were coming off a Monday night game, going 6-10 ATS their last 16 in that role.
While Flacco and the offense was certainly impressive, I'm not so sold on the Ravens' defense as many are. Keep in mind that they without Suggs, the reigning defensive player of the year. With everyone singing the Ravens' praises, you may not have noticed that the Bengals did run for 129 yards, on 28 carries.
With the Ravens' run defense potentially not what it once was, note that Philadelphia is a near perfect 9-1 when LeSean McCoy rushes for 100 or more yards.
While I respect both teams and both coaches, I feel that the home field and scheduling advantage will ultimately prove the difference. *10

I'm playing on UTAH. There were a number of reasons why I played against the Utes in their last game. None of them were because they aren't a good team. Rather, I thought that their opponent (Utah State) was better than many realized and that the line was higher than it should be.



I also noted that the Utes typically didn't fare too well in the favorite role. Here's an excerpt from the analysis of that play: "...The Utes are an ugly 23-39 ATS the last 62 times that they were favored in the -3.5 to -10 range and 3-8 ATS the last 11 times that they were laying points overall."



This time, however, its the Utes which are the underdog. That's typically a much better role for them, particularly when in this range. Indeed, they're 27-12-1 ATS the last 40 times that they were underdogs in the +3.5 to +10 range, going a lucrative 47-26-1 ATS as underdogs over that time overall.



The fact that Utah crushed BYU last season will have a lot of people wanting to back the revenge-minded Cougars here. That will surely make BYU want to win. However, the fact is that BYU also really wanted to win last year. Teams always want to badly win these instate rivalries and the added motivation that comes from revenge isn't always as significant as many believe. Of course, if BYU does happen to win big, they'll be saying that revenge was a factor. I don't expect that'll be the case though. Note that the last game here was decided by a single point.



True, the Utes lost QB Jordan Wynn last time out. I don't feel that's as big a deal as many might imagine though. Even before the season, Kyle Whittingham noted this was the deepest QB rotation he'd had in eight years here. Hays will likely get the majority of the snaps but Travis Wilson could also see some snaps. Note that Hays threw three TDs in the postseason win over Georgia Tech.



I respect BYU. In fact, I won with the Cougars in their opening win against Washington State. That was at home though and the Cougars were still playing the first game under a new coach. They're playing their first road game here though and it comes against a well-coached bitter rival.



Most are throwing the Utes under the bus I still believe that this Utah team is very capable. They beat the Cougars 17-16 the last time that the teams met here. Another close win here won't surprise. *10

I'm playing on SAN JOSE STATE. I won with the Spartans in their opener. Playing at Stanford, they nearly pulled off the upset. Despite the close 20-17 loss, the Spartans didn't suffer a letdown in their second game. Instead, they took care of Cal Davis. Laying 20, they won by 32. Colorado State is better than Cal Davis. But the Rams are still not a very good team. I expect another double-digit win for a Spartans team which is playing with confidence.



The Rams were able to get up for their opening game against rival Colorado. Listed as 6-point underdogs, they won 22-17. Last week's result shows this team has a long way to go though. Playing at home, the Rams loss 22-7 against N. Dakota State.



The Spartans were underdogs at Colorado State last year. Yet, they never trailed the entire game and ended up winning 38-31. This year, they've got a stronger team. Its Coach MacIntyre's third season here and his best team yet.



On the other hand, the Rams have a new coach in Jim McElwain. While the cupboard isn't bare, keep in mind that McElwain inherited a team that was 3-9 last season. I'll repeat that last week's double-digit loss against N. Dakota State tells a lot about this team.



Note that the Rams are just 7-22 ATS their last 29 lined games on turf. They've won just two of 11 road games the past couple of seasons, going 4-7 ATS.



Despite facing less than dominant competition, the Rams offense is averaging only 231.0 ypg. They'll face a SJ State defense which ranks 18th in the nation with only 266.0 ypg allowed, despite having faced Stanford. Note that the Spartans rank 12th in the country with 9.5 tackles per loss per game. (The Rams rank 109th in that category, w/ 3.5 per game.) This is a SJ State team playing with confidence and licking its chops at the chance to climb above the .500 mark.



While both teams are 1-1, they enter this game going in different directions. The Spartans, who have won three of four, (upset both Fresno and Navy to close out 2011) were better than the Rams last season. Playing at home, I expect this year's stronger team to have an even bigger advantage. *10 Personal Favorite

I'm playing on FIU. I believe that teams are a lot more evenly matched than is reflected in the line. Getting more than two touchdowns to work with, I feel the visiting Panthers are providing excellent value.



A look at last year's meeting between these schools shows that UCF was favored by 6 points. Yet, FIU won the game, 17-10. While we haven't necessarily seen that yet, this year's team is stronger. Keep in mind that this FIU squad entered the season as favorites to win the Sun Belt, bringing back numerous starters from last year's team.



True, the Panthers have failed to cover in both games - a big part of the reason for such a generous line. However, a closer look reveals that they dominated statistically in Week 1 but lost - so, they deserved a better fate there. Last week, perhaps overestimating their opponent, the Panthers didn't dominate the way they hoped to. They did claw their way to an OT win though. That should give them some confidence here and get them pointed in the right direction. The experience of playing and winning such a close game may also serve them well here.



Admittedly, this UCF team is pretty loaded. The Knights are among the most talented teams in their conference. Playing with revenge and also playing their home opener, they'll surely be fired up here. Note that the Knights are only 1-9 the last 16 years against instate opponents though. They should be happy if can just manage to win (SU) here.



Dating back to last season, the Knights have seen five of six games decided by 17 or fewer points. I look for this one to also prove closer than many will be expecting, with the Panthers improving to 5-1 ATS the last six times that they were listed as road underdogs in the +14.5 to +21 range. *10 Best Bet

I'm playing on CINCINNATI. The Ravens have been a very good team in recent years and they're likely going to be tough again this season. The Bengals are no slouches either though and in this case, I believe that the value lies with the visitor.



Baltimore has a rising young star at QB in Flacco. While Flacco has more games under his belt, the Bengals have a rising young star at QB of their own. Dalton's been a winner his whole career and he made the Pro Bowl as a rookie. (Dalton threw for 3,398 yards and 20 TDs with 13 interceptions.)



The Ravens did outscore the Bengals last season - but not by all hat much. Baltimore averaged 23.2 points. Cincinnati averaged 20.8 points. Note that the Bengals average went up on the road, as they averaged 22 ppg away from Cincinnati.



The Ravens did also have the statistical edge on the other side of the ball. However, once again the difference wasn't as big as many might assume.



While the Ravens defense is well known for consistently being dominant, note that Defensive Player of the Year Terrell Suggs is out at the moment. While Ray Lewis and Ed Reed remain the faces of the unit, Suggs is the one who recorded 14 sacks last season.



Baltimore's Torrey Smith conceded the following: "It's definitely tough without Suggs. It's definitely a difference ... "



Getting this many points could well come into play. Both of last year's meetings were decided by eight or fewer points. The previous season, both meetings were decided by six or less.



In fact, a look at the last 15 meetings reveals that only one of those games resulted in a Baltimore win of greater than eight points. That was back in 2008, too. Not surprisingly, the Bengals were a profitable 10-4-1 ATS in those games.



The Bengals have typically been tough in September too, as they're 12-7-1 ATS their last 20 games played in September, including 4-1 ATS their last five. A closer look reveals that only two of their last 20 September games have resulted in losses of greater than eight. Grab as many points as you can get and expect another close one. *10 Best Bet

I'm playing on the NEW YORK JETS. The season hasn't even started but many have already jumped off the Jets' bandwagon. That's largely due to a poor preseason. I learned long ago not to over-react to preseason results though, good or bad.



All the "bandwagon jumping" has caused the line to come down to what it would have (and was) prior to the preseason. I feel that's providing us with excellent value on the home side. Note that the Jets are 10-6-1 ATS (10-7 SU) the past couple of seasons, when playing a game with a line in the +3 to -3 range. During the same stretch, the Bills were only 3-8-3 (4-10 SU) when doing so. They're 0-5-1 ATS the last six times that they were road underdogs of three or less.



Sure, everyone's pretty down on New York right now while being high on Buffalo. Keep in mind that while the Jets were 11-5 at home the past couple of seasons, the Bills were 3-13 on the road.



The Jets won last year's two meetings by scores of 27-11 and 28-24. They were laying nine points for the game at New York. The year before they won by scores of 38-7 and 38-14.



The Bills should be improved defensively this season. Really, they can only go up - last year's team allowed a franchise-worst 5,938 yards, recording a mere 29 sacks in the process. Switching to a 4-3 (and signing Mario Williams) should help. However, it may take time.



While Fitzpatrick is considered to be a lot better than Sanchez by most, keep in mind that he threw 16 interceptions over the final nine games of last season.



In closing, while the gap may indeed have closed a little between these teams, I don't feel that its closed enough for the Jets to become this low a favorite, when they were laying -9.5 here last season. Lay the small number. *10 Personal Favorite

I'm playing on TENNESSEE. Even most casual NFL fans know that the team which lost in the Super Bowl often takes a step backwards, the year after losing. Some likely aren't aware that this typically happens right out of the gate. Indeed, the SB loser is 0-12 ATS in its opening game the past 12 years. Obviously, that streak will eventually come to an end. I don't think it will be this Sunday afternoon.



While New England should again be potent offensively, Tennessee figures to have the edge on the other side of the ball. The Titans allowed less than 20 points per game last season. Note that the Titans also only allowed 16.8 ppg in the preseason, best in the AFC.



While the Pats D allowed 440.3 yards per game on the road last season, the Titans D allowed only 342.6 per game at home.



While I'm not holding the Patriots' poor preseason against them, I do feel that the Titans positive preseason showing will be good for a young team.



Coach Mike Munchak said this of Tennessee's preseason: "You get a confidence going. You start getting a confidence going in each other. To me, when you're playing a game it doesn't matter. It's all about playing your best. I think our guys approached it that way in the preseason that we needed to establish an identity a little bit more that we can go and make those kind of plays."



While the Pats have admittedly been very tough on opening day, most of their recent opening day games have come at home (3 of L4 yrs) and/or against a week opponent. They're on the road here though - and the Titans couldn't be considered a pushover, certainly not here at Tennessee.



The Titans have won six of their last nine home games; only one of those nine games resulted in a loss of greater than seven points. Locker has the offense energized and the defense is fired up for the challenge of shutting down Brady.



The Titans are 5-2-1 ATS since the start of the 2011 calendar year, when listed as underdogs. Although some of the faces are different, they haven't forgotten the 59-0 beating the Pats put on them at New England in 2009. I expect an entirely different result here. *9

I'm playing on ARIZONA. I believe that the Wildcats have had this game circled. For starters, its a chance to host a nationally ranked opponent. It also gives the Wildcats a chance to see how good they really are. Additionally, they haven't forgotten that these same Cowboys whipped them each of the last two seasons. I feel that they'll be highly motivated to prove that this year will be a different story.



The Wildcats have a new coach, in Rich Rodriguez. While Rodriguez wasn't around for last year's two losses, he sure knows the significance of this game and the opportunity it provides. He's brought some new excitement to the program and I expect his players to be ready to go.



True, the Wildcats failed to cover in their opener. Laying -10.5 points, they won by only seven, needing OT to do so. However, that 24-17 victory over Toledo tells only half the story.



A closer look at the stats shows that Arizona actually had a commanding 624-358 advantage in total yards. However, they had two TDs called back by penalties, missed a pair of easy FGs and also turned the ball over three times.



In other words, the Wildcats dominated. They just shot themselves in the foot a bit. In fact, their 624 yards was the second most in school history.



While the mistakes are a bit of a concern, that's partly expected in a team's first game of the season, particularly with a new coach. I really like how the game finished. The Wildcats overcame their mistakes and won in OT. Not only does that give them confidence and positive momentum, the fact that they weren't "perfect" should make it easier to focus on Rodriguez's message this week.



While the Cowboys are a well coached team, it may be a little harder for Gundy to get his message across this week. That's because his players may be patting themselves on the back a little, after an 84-0 blowout of Savannah State, thinking that every week is going to be a cakewalk.



Sure, Gundy was able to give his starters some extra rest. However, they didn't necessarily learn anything from the "lopsided" win and aren't likely to benefit from it as much as Arizona will from its "close" win.



Gundy had this to say of last weeks' rout: "It always concerns us because as a coach, you want to get your players enough work to where you feel like they've advanced in different areas and gotten prepared for the next week but you don't want to get them too much work to where they stress their bodies, they stress their legs or could have at times been vulnerable to some sort of an injury. We would have liked to have more work. It didn't work out that way."



Everyone remembers the Cowboys crushing opponents from the past couple of seasons. And, with last week's 84-0 win, many will assume that this year will just be business as usual. However, lets not forget that this team has 10 new starters from last year's Big 12 championship team. I feel that the line is very generous (it was only 14 LY and that was at OSU and it was only 4.5 here in 2010) and I look for the revenge-minded Wildcats to step up and earn AT LEAST the cover. *10 Revenge GOY

I'm playing on FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL. The Panthers didn't get off to the start they wanted. While they were underdogs, they still had hoped to win at Duke. That didn't happen. However, they did play well in the loss and this is still a solid team - one which will now be playing with some anger and which is playing its home opener. Taking a significant step down in class, I expect the Panthers to bounce back with a convincing win.



The Panthers have been in back to back bowl games. Although it's Week 2, after losing at Duke, FIU knows it absolutely can't afford to mess around here, if it wants to make it three in a row.



Akron's got a coach (Terry Bowden) with a recognizable last name. However, that's about all the Zips have. They've lost nine in a row, dating back to last season and were just 2-22 the last two years. They lost 56-14 vs. UCF last weekend, falling behind 35-0 out of the gate. This hasn't been a good role either. They're 1-5 ATS (0-6 SU) the last six times that they were underdogs of greater than 21 points, 6-15-1 ATS as underdogs the last couple of seasons overall.



The Zips have all kinds of problems, including an inability to run and an inability to stop the run.



The Zips, who averaged 2.6 yards per carry in their opener, gave up an average of 219.6 yards on the ground last season, good for 108th in the country. I guess they should feel pretty good about allowing "only" 206 rushing yards (and 4 rushing TDs) last week.



Note that an already terrible defense lost perhaps its best player when linebacker Brian Wagner transferred in the offseason.



A closer look at last week's stats shows that the Panthers actually outgained Duke by a 513-420 margin. In his debut as the team's full-time starter, QB Jake Medlock threw for 348 yards and two TDs, without recording an interception.



All that offense didn't bother me at all last week - as I had a winning ticket on the Over in the FIU/Duke game. However, I do expect it to have a motivating effect on the Panthers defense here, as they'll look to bounce back with an improved effort. Keep in mind that this unit gave up only 19.4 points per game and led the Sun Belt with 2.7 sacks per contest in 2011. This year's team returned a whopping 17 starters, 10 of them on the defensive side of the ball.



Not only are the Panthers upset about las week's loss, all those starters are still smarting from losing in the bowl game last year. They'll be looking to take out their anger on someone and lowly Akron should be just what the doctor ordered.



The Panthers, picked to win the SBC by the leagues coaches prior to the season, dominated North Texas, 41-16, in last season's home opener. This one could easily prove more lopsided. *10 Personal Favorite

I'm playing on IOWA. While I successfully played against the Hawkeyes last week, I feel that this will be an excellent spot to back them.



Playing at home and listed as +6.5 point underdogs, Iowa State won 44-41 against Iowa last season. Iowa won 35-7 the previous year, easily covering as -13 point favorites. That game was 35-0 until the Cyclones scored in "garbage time," too.



Due in part to last week's results, we don't have to lay nearly as big a number with the Hawkeyes on Saturday. I feel thats providing excellent value. Keep in mind that Iowa is 12-4 ATS the last 16 times that it was listed as a home favorite in the -3.5 to -7 range.



While I'm happy that they've helped us in terms of getting a more reasonable line, I'm not too worried about last week's results. There can be a bit of rust in Week 1 and Iowa was up against a Northern Illinois team which had the longest winning streak in the country. That game was also played at Soldier Field, which could have been a little intimidating for a young team. The Hawkeyes did still win the game and they did it in such a manner that they should be able to bring some positive momentum into Saturday.



Now back "home," the Hawkeyes will be confident. It should be noted that they've won 11 straight home openers and that those victories have come by an average of 33 points per game.



The Hawkeyes will be wearing "throwback" uniforms for this game, commemorating the 1921-22 back-to-back Big Ten championship teams that went a combined 14-0. Expect an inspired effort from the revenge-minded Hawkeyes, as they knock off their rivals and cover the small number along the way. *9

I'm playing on K-STATE. Some will likely see the Hurricanes getting this many points and be quick to back the underdog. I feel the Wildcats are favored by this many points for good reason though.



These teams met last September, at Miami. The Hurricanes were favored by double-digits but the Wildcats won outright. This year's K-State team should be better and now get to play at home.



While the Hurricanes returned 10 starters from last season and appear to be in a bit of a rebuilding year, the Wildcats returned 14 starters from a team which won 10 games last season.



Among the returning starters is QB Klein, who threw for 3000+ yards and whopping 40 TDs last season. The Wildcats return all the key components of their running game along with an experienced offensive line. Additionally, their receiving corps is more experienced than it has been the past few seasons.



The Hurricanes are playing their second straight road game, not an easy spot right out of the gate. The Wildcats, on the other hand, are playing their second straight at home.



The Wildcats are 7-5-1 ATS (13-3 SU) the last 13 times that they were listed as home favorites in the -3.5 to -7 range. I expect them to improve on those stats in convincing fashion Saturday afternoon. *9

I'm playing on UTAH STATE. There is no denying that Utah has had its way with its instate rival this millennium. Indeed, the Utes have won 12 straight meetings, most of them by a comfortable margin. Utah should be pretty good again this year, too. That said, I feel that the gap has narrowed between these teams and that the Utes will have a much tougher fight on their hands than they, or many others, will expect.



While the WAC may not be as tough as it once was, the Aggies are one of the best teams left in it. They were 7-5 last regular season, before losing by a single point in their bowl game, their first since 1997. A closer look at their five regular season losses shows that only one came by greater than a touchdown - and that was on the road at Fresno State.



Overall, including the bowl game, the Aggies' six losses came by an average of just 4.33 points.



They lost by only four points at Auburn, which was ranked in the Top 25 at the time. They also lost by only three points at BYU, while beating Nevada.



Overall, the Aggies saw no fewer than TEN of their 2011 games decided by seven points or less. In other words, this team is no stranger to playing close games. Having battled the likes of BYU and Auburn while also "playing in the postseason," the Aggies won't be intimidated by Utah, the way that they might normally be.



It looked like Utah State QB Kennedy, part of a terrific tandem with Chuckie Keeton, might be hurt last week. However, he'll be ready to go - the "stinger," which was to his non-throwing shoulder, reportedly proved less serious than originally feared.



Either way, Keeton was 22 for 25 for 304 yards and two touchdowns last week - and he can run too. Utah coach Whittingham acknowledged that Keeton's ability to both run and throw presents a "headache" for defensive coordinators. He went on to say this of Keeton: "He is a tremendous athlete with a good arm who moves well in the pocket."



The Utes are an ugly 23-39 ATS the last 62 times that they were favored in the -3.5 to -10 range and 3-8 ATS the last 11 times that they were laying points overall. Meanwhile, the Aggies are an outstanding 14-5-1 ATS the last 20 times that they were getting points, not surprising given their tendency to play close games. I won't be surprised if this one also comes down to the wire and am grabbing all the points I can get with the highly motivated home underdog. *10 Main Event

I'm playing on PITTSBURGH. Its safe to say that not many people imagined Pittsburgh losing its opener to Youngstown State. Laying -18, the Panthers lost by 14. Ouch! I believe that result has worked in our favor though.



With the Panthers checking in at 0-1, many are wanting to back the Bearcats. As a result, we're getting more than three points to work with. Considering that these teams saw last year's game decided by just a field goal, that could well prove significant.



Additionally, I expect last week's shocker to serve us a wake-up call to the Panthers. They were embarrassed and it should have been easy for new coach Chryst to get his message across in practice this week. I expect a highly motivated effort.



The cupboard was far from bare for Chryst, former offensive coordinator at Wisconsin, as Pittsburgh returned numerous starters.



That's not really the case for the Bearcats, who suffered more offseason losses.



Note that Cincinnati was just 5-9 ATS in conference play the last couple of seasons. During that time, the Panthers were 11-3 ATS in conference play.



While Pittsburgh has had a game to work out the kinks, the Bearcats have not. I won't be surprised if that works to the Panthers' advantage.



The Panthers won 28-10 the last time they were here. I'll grab the points but won't be at all surprised by another outright Pittsburgh win. *10

I'm playing on LOUISVILLE. It goes without saying that these teams don't like each other. Both teams come in with something to prove. With the Cardinals laying double-digits, its also assumed that they are the stronger team in this matchup, this year. While its true that these type of "rivalry" games aren't always won by the team which is stronger on paper, in this case, I feel that the large line is justified.

The Wildcats finished below .500 last season. A punchless offense was a big part of the problem. At less than 260 yards per game, they were 118th in total offense. While the Cats do return many of their skill players, scoring again figures to be an issue, particularly against what should be a stingy Louisville D. Playing without tailback Josh Clemons doesn't figure to help matters.

In 2011, Louisville was second in the Big East in total defense. The Cardinals were 23rd in the country in total defense and 10th in rushing defense. At home, they allowed a mere 15.8 points per game. They return the bulk of last year's defensive starters.

The Cardinals won 24-17 at Kentucky last season, covering as -4 point favorites. That was early (Sept 17) in the season. They got stronger late in the season, winning five of their final six. Big East Freshman of the Year Teddy Bridgewater came into his own.

Obviously, Kentucky plays in the tougher conference. Knowing this and perhaps also knowing that the road team has fared well in this series in recent seasons, many may be tempted to take the points. However, they should keep in mind that the Wildcats are 0-5 ATS the last five times that they were listed as underdogs in the 10.5 to 21 range, including an 0-2 mark as road underdogs in the 10.5 to 14 range.

The Cardinals had a commanding 181 to 35 advantage on the ground in last year's game. I believe they're better on both sides of the ball and I expect them to ultimately pull away for a double-digit win. *10 Personal Favorite

I'm playing on TULSA. It would be fairly easy to make a case for the home team. The Cyclones hail from the "bigger" school and they also from the bigger conference. They've traditionally had success in home openers while Tulsa has traditionally struggled in road openers. The Cyclones are even a very slight underdog to boot. Those factors should have many tempted to back Iowa State. However, in my opinion, all that is trumped by Tulsa being the stronger team.





The Golden Hurricane had a very difficult early season schedule last season. Three of their first four games came against Top 10 teams (Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Boise State) including two of those games coming on the road. Those three teams ranked #1, #4 and #8 when Tulsa played them. So it wasn't all that surprising that the Golden Hurricane were 1-3 after their first four games. They didn't lose another game the rest of the entire regular season, until falling against Houston in the CUSA title game and then again against BYU (by only 3) in their bowl game.





That's a lot more than Iowa State can say though. The Cyclones are off back to back losing seasons and have now finished below .500 in five of the last six seasons. During that stretch, they are a combined 27-47. Last year's team did have a couple of memorable wins - regulars will recall we won with the Cyclones when they beat Oklahoma State outright. Still, it was another losing year - and this figures to be more of the same.



The Golden Hurricane have covered the spread in nine of their last 12 "road" games and they're 4-1 SU/ATS the last five times that they were listed as a road favorite - although in this case, the line is not likely to come into play.



While the Golden Hurricane are 4-2 SU/ATS the last few seasons when playing a game where the line ranged from the -3 to +3, the Cyclones are 0-2 SU/ATS when doing the same.





While last year's tough start was practically inevitable, Tulsa has visions of starting 8-0 this season. Whether or not the Golden Hurricane can accomplish that goal remains to be the seen, however, I look for them to at least take the first step on Saturday afternoon. *10 Annihilator

I'm playing on NORTHERN ILLINOIS. This game will be played at Soldier Field. These teams met here on this exact day, five years ago. The Hawkeyes eked out a cover on that day. Laying -12, they won by 13 points - a 16-3 victory. However, a closer look reveals that the stats weren't quite as lopsided as the score. The Hawkeyes did enjoy a solid edge on the ground but the Huskies threw for nearly 100 more yards. NIU ended up missing a 44 yard field goal while also throwing three interceptions on the Iowa side of the field. I believe that this year's teams enter the season on a more equal footing than they did for that game five years ago. (NIU finished only 2-10 in 2007!) Yet, the pointspread isn't that much different. That being the case, I feel that the underdog Huskies are providing excellent value.



Northern Illinois enters the season on a red hot run. In fact, including their bowl win, the Huskies have won nine straight games. They last lost in October 2011 and that was by only seven points. This team has had only had one loss of greater than seven points since the opening game of the 2010 season. That game last year vs. Wisconsin, the #7 team in the country at the time.



While they do lost QB Chandler Harnish - now known at Mr. Irrelevant - they do bring back a number of starters, particularly on defense.



Unlike the 2007 team, this year's Huskies should run the ball on Saturday afternoon. They finished 12th last year in rushing at 234.1 yards per game, while also scoring more than 38 points per game. QB Jordan Lynch is considered a better runner than Harnish, too.



Kirk Ferentz is still calling the shots in Iowa. However, the Hawkeyes have new coordinators on both offense and defense and are a relatively inexperienced team.



The Huskies are 3-1 ATS the last four times that they were underdogs in the 3.5 to 10 point range, winning two of those games outright. They believe they can win this one outright and I expect them to keep it close the entire way. *10 Best Bet

I'm playing on SAN JOSE STATE. With Andrew Luck running the show, the Cardinal have been very good the past couple of seasons. Harbaugh left after a very good 2010 season and the team lost a number of key players. Yet, they became even more profitable under Shaw, failing to cover only twice all season. Luck is now with the Colts though and the team has several other key losses. I don't expect such a dominating pointspread record for Stanford this year and feel that this initial line is a little on the high side.





In addition to losing Luck, the Cardinal will be without tight end Coby Fleener, who led the team with 10 touchdown receptions a year ago. He was a second-round pick by the Colts, Also, offensive linemen David DeCastro and Jonathan Martin were selected in the first and second rounds, respectively.



The Stanford defense does return seven starters. However, one of those is Shayne Skov and he's been suspended for this game.





You may recall that these teams also met in last season's opener. Yes, the Cardinal won by a commanding 57-3 margin. However, that was with Luck running the show. It should also be noted that the score was a little misleading. The Cardinal benefitted from excellent field position, as three of their second quarter scoring drives came from 22 total yards of offense. In fact, the Spartans enjoyed an edge in total yards of offense in the first half, while also recording one more first down.





After the debacle vs. Stanford, the Spartans really came together. While they went only 5-6 the rest of the way, none of those other six losses came by greater than 13 points. In fact, the only other loss of greater than 10 points came at BYU - and that was by only 13. Each of their final four games were decided by a field goal or less including victories vs. Navy and Fresno State to close out the season.





While they did lose some players, this is still arguably McIntrye's most talented team. He's played at Alabama and Stanford in his first two games of his first two seasons - so he knows what to expect here.





Last year's game here notwithstanding, McIntyre's teams have been excellent in the underdog role. I look for the Spartans to keep this one closer than most will be expecting, as life without Luck proves slightly more difficult than imagined. *10

I'm playing on BYU. Perhaps the biggest story attached to this game is the return of Mike Leach to the sidelines. The former Texas Tech coach had plenty of success, prior to getting run out of town in 2009. He'll look to some excitement back to Washington State. Given his track record, the Cougars are likely to improve under Leach's watch. However, this is a very tough test for them and I don't expect that improvement to be immediate.



While the cupboard is not bare, in terms of talent, the Cougars are learning a brand new offense. Washington State should get decent QB play and does have a bigtime receiver in Marquess Wilson. He'll surely be a big part of the offense. However, BYU is well aware of Wilson - and after Wilson, the rest of the supporting cast has some question marks.



The defense gave up more than 400 yards per game last season and now switches from a 4-3 to a 3-4. That may also take some time.



I feel that BYU has an advantage on both the offensive and the defensive line.



I look for BYU to have success exploiting WSU's suspect front seven. BYU, a well coached team with an established system, will be hungry to start off well after a sluggish start last season. The Cougars have a senior quarterback, a talented offensive line and a dynamic pair of big and fast receivers. (Hoffman and Apo are 6'4" and 6'3".)



The defense is also talented and experienced. Keep in mind that BYU closed out last season by winning its final three games by a combined score of 42-14, prior to knocking off Tulsa (by 3) in the bowl.



The Cougars outscored teams by an average score of 32.9 to 18.3 here last season, outgaining them by nearly 100 yards per game here. Note that the margin of victory is greater than two touchdowns. (Washington State was outscored by an average score of 36 to 22.4, a margin of greater than 13 per game.



Leach, a BYU alum, gets a rude welcome back to the game. I expect the home team to pull away for a convincing win. *10 Personal Favorite

Reason: I'm playing on NEW ENGLAND. *As you're probably aware, both teams are coming off very "close" victories. The Patriots squeaked past Baltimore, avoiding OT by a missed FG. Meanwhile, the Giants needed OT to beat San Francisco. As you're likely also aware, the Giants beat the Pats at Foxboro in the regular season AND they also beat them in the Super Bowl four years ago. Combine those factors with the fact that the Giants covered in the Conference Finals and the Pats did not AND we're getting a very low pointspread. Indeed, the Pats were laying double-digits when these teams faced each other in the previous Super Bowl. I feel that low number is providing us with excellent value on the "revenge-minded" Patriots. I won with the Packers in last year's Super Bowl, backing a team which I felt had an excellent QB and an elite coach. The previous year, I backed the Saints over the Colts in large part because I felt they'd have an edge in the coaching department. In this case, both quarterbacks and head coaches have been been here and won here before. While recent head-to-head meetings would suggest otherwise, I still believe the combination of Brady and Belichick is superior to the tandem of Coughlin and Manning. I also believe that both Brady and Belichick are the type of personalities that despise being "shown up." Everyone "expected" them to beat the Giants in the last Super Bow and they came up short. Then, these same Giants snapped their home winning streak. While every player and member of the coaching staff will (obviously) be extremely motivated to win, I expect both Brady and Belichick to "take it to another level," in an effort to "get the last laugh" against these pesky and hated Giants. It should be pointed out that the Pats are a stellar 7-2 SU and 6-2-1 ATS the last few seasons, when attempting to avenge an earlier loss. We saw what they did to the Bills, after Buffalo had beaten them earlier in the season - they crushed them by a score of 49-21 in the "rematch." Going back further finds that the Pats at an outstanding 51-30-4 ATS (63%) the last 85 times that they were in the "revenge" role. While it wasn't a "revenge" situation, it should be noted that the Pats also destroyed Denver, when facing the Broncos for the second time. That kept the Pats perfect when facing a team for the second time this season, winning those four games by 87 combined points. While both teams had last week off, it should be noted that the Giants had to play an extra game to get here, while flying all over the country, plus had to fight desperately just to make the playoffs. I feel that works in the Pats favor. Keep in mind that the Pats just won by 35 points when getting an extra week off in between games. The last time that the Giants played with two week's rest in between games was way back in October. After their break, they barely beat a struggling Miami team, winning by three as -9.5 point home favorites. While even most Giants' fans will admit that the Pats possess the more potent offense, the knock against the Pats has been their defense. This group has played much better than people realize though. Allowing an average of only 15 ppg in the playoffs shows they've elevated their level of play on that side of the ball. One could make a convincing case for either team and there are plenty of stats supporting both sides. The legacies of both the QBs and coaches will be on the line. Ultimately, I expect Belichick and the Pats to have the better gameplan and look for Brady to outplay Manning, as the Pats have their revenge, getting the cash along the way. *10

Reason: I'm playing on GREEN BAY. The Giants were certainly impressive in beating Atlanta. They suddenly seem to be playing their best football and many are starting to make comparisons to the 2007 team, the one that knocked off the Packers in the playoffs. The way they're currently playing, I actually think these Giants compare to the Superbowl winning team. That said, this version of the Packers is MUCH improved from the team New York knocked off in the 2007/2008 playoffs. The Giants came in here and upset the Packers on that 1/20/18 game. That was a Green Bay team led by an aging Brett Favre though. Now, of course, they're led by Aaron Rodgers, who's coming off one of the best seasons of the modern era. The Packers weren't defending Superbowl champs when they faced the Giants in that playoff game. They're the defending champs now and that brings both pride and confidence. Of course, they weren't coming off a 15-1 regular season either. Perhaps most importantly, the Packers also weren't coming off a bye; they'd beaten Seattle the week before. I feel the Packers will have a coaching advantage here. Having the extra week of preparation time helps even more. The Packers are 15-7 the last 22 times that they played with two or more week's worth of rest in between games. That includes a 3-0 SU/ATS mark the last three times this well-coached team was in that spot. The Giants did play the Packers tough at New York in the regular season, Green Bay won that one by a score of 38-35. That wasn't here at Lambeau though. The Packers won huge the last time that the Giants played here, the score of that 12/26/10 game was 45-17 in favor of Green Bay. Including that victory the Packers are 21-3 SU and 17-6-1 ATS their last 24 here. They haven't forgotten the previous playoff loss and I look for them to avenge that defeat in convincing fashion here. *10

Reason: I'm playing on BALTIMORE. The Texans took a huge step by winning last week's playoff game. That was at home against a mediocre Cincinnati team. Now, they're playing on the road against a very good Baltimore team. I expect them to be over their heads. Playing without their starting QB, the Texans have already "done enough" to be satisfied. They're not expected to win here and the season can be considered a success no matter what happens here. Not so for the Ravens. Anything less than a victory and the season will be considered a failure. While that does bring some added pressure, I feel this Baltimore team has the type of makeup that will thrive off that situation. The Ravens were 8-0 at home this season. That included a 29-14 blowout of these same Texans back on 10/16. The Ravens, who were also coming off a bye before that game, moved to 3-0 SU/ATS when off a bye. Overall, the Ravens outscored opposing teams by a whopping 27.4 to 14.9 margin here at home. That includes blowout wins over the likes of Pittsburgh (35-7) the Jets (34-17) and the 49ers (16-6.) The Ravens have been here. They're playing at home and coming off a bye. They expect to win and I expect them to do so convincingly. *10

Reason: I'm playing on ALABAMA. As you are surely aware, this is a rematch of an earlier meeting, at Alabama. While some may not like it, I believe its the best matchup. (Lets not forget that Oklahoma State lost to Iowa State.) More importantly, like it or not, I believe Alabama will prove that it belongs to be here. Many will likely point to the fact that LSU won at Tuscaloosa and they'll be quick to back the undefeated Tigers at New Orleans. That game was hardly a "blowout" though. If you recall, it went to Overtime, a 9-6 victory for the Tigers. A look at the stats reminds us that Alabama had a 295 to 239 edge in total yards. The Tide had a slight edge in time of possession and had more first downs. While LSU punted six times, Alabama did so only twice. Missed field goals (Alabama missed four) were the difference. I agree with Alabama coach Nick Saban when he said the following though: "This could be a totally different type of game. There's so many good players on both sides of the ball for both teams. There's so much opportunity for this game to play out completely different and have a completely different flavor than the first game." Note that Alabama still leads 45-25-5 in this rivalry, dating all the way back to 1895. While LSU had a very slight edge in overall points scored (38.5 to 36), keep in mind that Alabama averaged 433.4 yards to LSU's 375.3. Also, on the road, Alabama averaged 36.6 points and 424.6 yards. LSU, when playing on the road, averaged 35.3 points and 331 yards. (Of course, that's due in no small part to the fact that LSU had to play Alabama on the road.) More importantly, lets not forget that Alabama still has the #1 ranked defense in the country and that ALL 11 of its victories came by at least 16 points. The Tide allowed 191.3 yards per game. The Tigers allowed 252.1. We don't always get second chances in life and teams rarely get them (at this stage) in football. The Tide get one here and I expect them to make the most of it. *10

Reason: I'm playing on ATLANTA. The Giants have the higher seed, based on winning their division. However, Atlanta finished with more victories - I believe the Falcons will prove to be the better team. A closer look at the stats shows that the Giants were actually outscored by a 25.0 to 24.6 margin this season. They did have an edge in yards but it was so slight (383.6 to 376.4) that it was basically equal. The Falcons, on the other hand, outscored teams by a 25.1 to 21.9 margin. And they outgained them by a significant 376.6 to 333.6 margin. Those numbers were even better on the road where the Falcons outgained teams by a 385.4 to 338.6 count. The Giants are just 9-14-1 ATS on the road the past few seasons. The Falcons are 14-10 ATS on the road. The Falcons are 5-3 ATS when playing a road game with an O/U line in the 45.5 to 49 range. The Giants are just 2-6 ATS when playing a home game with an O/U line in the same range. The Giants covered here in 2009, losing by three points, 37-34. They've grown up and are a better team now. I feel they're better coached and I'm expecting an upset. *10

Reason: I'm playing on V-TECH. I was happy to see the Hokies get blown out by Clemson in their last game, as I had a big play on Clemson in that one. However, I fully expect them to bounce back with a MUCH better effort here. Prior to the Clemson loss, the Hokies had won seven straight and 11 of 12. In fact, Clemson was the only team to beat them all year. Admittedly, the rest of the schedule wasn't all that challenging - however, the Hokies took care of business, beating the likes of Virginia, UNC, Miami, Georgia-Tech and Wake Forest. Michigan did close out the season with wins over Ohio State and Nebraska, which will stand in bettors' memories - like the Hokies' loss to Clemson. However, before that, their biggest wins were Ilinois and Notre Dame - and they were very fortunate to beat Notre Dame. They lost by double-digits against Michigan State and by eight vs. Iowa. So, the Wolverines' schedule wasn't all that tough either. Both teams should be motivated to win. However, I really feel that the season-ending loss to Clemson has left a bad taste in the mouths of the Hokies and I expect them to be a little more "hungry" here. Michigan, on the other hand, is just 2-7 ATS its last nine, when off a conference win. The Wolverines are an awful 5-15 ATS against teams with a winning record the past few seasons. During that stretch, the Hokies were 10-7 ATS (12-5 SU) against teams with a winning record. The Wolverines are 3-4 ATS the past few seasons when playing with a line in the +3 to -3 range. During that stretch, the Hokies are 4-1 SU/ATS when doing so. I expect them to be the team which "gets the cash" once again. *10

Reason: I'm playing on STANFORD. Regulars will recall that I had a big winning play against Stanford when the Cardinal faced California. However, that play was based (in large part) on the fact that I felt Stanford would be "disappointed," due to having lost (vs. Oregon) the previous week. That indeed seemed to be the case. The Cardinal did win. However, they only won by three points, a game in which they were laying -17.5. The Cardinal have had plenty of time to recover from that disappointment though and I feel that they'll be completely "up" for this game. Regulars will also recall that I had a big play against Oklahoma State when the Cowboys lost to Iowa State. I had a number of reasons for playing against the Cowboys in that game. Mostly, however, I felt that they were simply laying too many points. I'll admit that I didn't actually expect the Cowboys to lose outright in that game. However, that's exactly what happened. To their credit, the Cowboys responded to that setback by blowing out Oklahoma in their next game - no small feat. However, as you know, that still wasn't enough to get them into the National Championship game. The Cowboys feel like they received the short end of the stick. Unlike Stanford, they're "disappointed" to be here. I expect that to have a negative effect on them. In addition to the fact that Stanford is happier to be here, I feel the Cardinal match up very well with the Cowboys and that the teams are quite evenly matched. Obviously, both have bigtime QBs. However, Luck is the much bigger NFL prospect and I feel that's for good reason. The Cowboys #1 receiver is arguably better than any of Stanford's receivers - however, Luck is so good that he makes all his receivers excellent. While Luck gets all the attention, its on the defensive side of the ball where the Cardinal should have the advantage. Stanford allowed 20.3 points per game and 19.8 on the road. The Cardinal allowed 331.1 yards per game, 328.4 away from home. On the other hand, the Cowboys allowed 25.8 points per game and 445.7 yards. While the Cowboys lost vs. lowly Iowa State, Stanford's lone loss came vs. Oregon, one of the best teams in the country. The Cowboys have been great at the betting window for a few years now. The Cardinal have been even better though. While I expect an outright win, I'll gladly grab all the points I can get! *10

Reason: I'm playing on SOUTH CAROLINA. I successfully played against Nebraska in last year's bowl game. The Huskers were double-digit favorites but lost outright by a score of 19-7 against Washington. I also successfully played against South Carolina in last year's bowl game. The Gamecocks were favored by three points but lost outright (26-17) against Florida State. This year, however, I'm backing the Gamecocks. For starers, I feel the Gamecocks are a better team. Playing in the SEC, they finished with 10 wins. Nebraska played in the Big-Ten but only finished with nine wins. Nebraska beat Penn State - however, that was after the scandal - and the Huskers won by only three points. They beat Iowa and Washington, Ohio State and Michigan State. However, those wins all came at home and they only covered in two of them. They were crushed by Wisconsin and Michigan (48-17 and 45-17!) and even lost at home vs. Northwestern, when laying -17.5. South Carolina beat the likes of Georgia, Navy, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Tennessee, Flordia and Clemson. They did get blown out at Arkansas - but not by nearly as much as Nebraska did against Michigan or Wisconsin. Their other loss (vs. Auburn) came by three points. Both teams averaged roughly 30 points per game. Nebraska scored 30.5, South Carolina scored 30.1. However, South Carolina's numbers improved on the road (31.4 ppg) while Nebraska managed only 26 on the road. Also, note that the Gamecocks averaged better than 30 points their last three games while the Huskers averaged just 18. On the other side of the ball, the Gamecocks allowed a mere 18.8 points per game and just 268.9 yards per game. That 269 ypg ranks fourth best in the country. (That includes a 133 mark against the pass, second best in the country.) Meanwhile, the Huskers allow 22.8 points per game and 350.7 yards. Those numbers climb to 27 and 367.6 on the road. The Gamecocks should have plenty of motivation. They haven't won a bowl under Spurrier AND a win here will give them the first 11 win season in school history. As defensive end Melvin Ingram noted: "Since I've been here, we haven't won a bowl game and so we're trying to go out and change that, got out and get that 11th win and make history..." All things considered, in my opinion, getting the Gamecocks at such a short number is a bargain. They're 6-2 SU/ATS the last eight times that they played a game with a line in the +3 to -3 range, including a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS mark their last three in that situation. I expect them to improve on those stats here. *10

Reason: I'm playing on DALLAS. I'll be the first to admit that the Cowboys have cost me a couple of times recently. I did win in their game against Tampa Bay a couple of weeks ago. However, that was sandwiched between losses against these same Giants before that - and the Eagles last week. Those setbacks won't prevent me from backing them here though. The loss against the Eagles was tough, as Romo got hurt early - and due to the Giants having beaten the Jets earlier, the Cowboys decided to "go through the motions" a little. In hindsight, that was a bad pick. I don't necessarily feel that way about the loss against the Giants though. Indeed, the Cowboys were up by 12 late in the fourth quarter of that one. While they deserve credit for the victory, the Giants were a little fortunate in that one. Not only did they block a critical field goal but they benefitted from some key penalties and a poor punt by Dallas' normally reliable punter. While the Cowboys were favored in that one, they're underdogs here. That's noteworthy as we find them at 9-5 ATS the past few seasons, when getting points. During that stretch, the Giants were a poor 12-17-1 ATS when laying points. That includes an 0-2-1 ATS (1-2 SU) mark as a home favorite of three or fewer points. Note that the Giants are also a dismal 1-6-1 ATS when playing a home game with an O/U line in the 45.5 to 49 range. I'll gladly grab the points. However, I look for the Cowboys to rise to the occasion and score the "upset." *10

Reason: I'm playing on ARIZONA. Last year, in Week 17, I successfully played ON Seattle (16-6 win as a +4 point underdog) while also successfully playing AGAINST Arizona. (The Cardinals lost 38-7 as a +6 point underdog!) I had good reason to play on the Seahawks AND against the Cards in those games though. While "motivation" is always an important factor to consider, its more important than ever in Week 17. Last year, I felt the Seahawks would be "hungry" and that the Cards would not be. This year, I feel very differently about the motivation levels of both teams. I actualy backed the Seahawks when these teams faced each other at Seattle on 9/25. At the time, I felt the Seahawks were at least as good as the Cards - yet, despite playing at home, they were listed as +3 point underdogs. Not surprisingly, Seattle won outright. That result should work in our favor here. That's because it puts the Cards in the 'revenge' role. Combine that with the fact that this is their home finale - and I expect their best effort. After slow starts, both teams have played MUCH better down the stretch. However, while the Seahawks have had a couple of more "high profile" victories, the Cards have done so more quietly. Both teams were officially eliminated from playoff contention last week. However, I feel that the Seahawks will experience a bigger letdown from that fact - as their chances were somewhat better than Arizona's and they seemed to actually believe they had a chance - and continued to talk about it. The Cards knew their chances were basically non-existent and didn't allow themselves to "get excited" the same way that Seattle did. Note that the Cards have won four straight here and are 5-2 at home on the season. That includes victories over the likes of the Cowboys and the 49ers. The lone losses here came against Pittsburgh and the Giants. On the other hand, the Seahawks are 3-4 on the road. Going back further, the Cards are 14-10 at home the past few seasons; the Seahawks are 6-18 on the road. Also, note that the Cards have rallied from fourth-quarter deficits six times this season, one shy of the NFL record. They've won three games in overtime, tying the league record. In other words, this is a team that doesn't quit. While both teams lost last week, I like how Arizona lost better. Down 23-0, the Cards outscored Cincy 16-0 in the fourth, nearly battling all the way back. On the other hand, Seattle had an early and halftime lead vs. SF but let it slip away. That type of loss can be more difficult to "bounce back" from. Note that Seattle is just 1-5 SU/ATS the last six times it was off a divisional loss - a situation the Seahawks don't seem to handle too well. In the end, I expect the Cards to be more "hungry" and look for that to lead to a win and cover. *10

Reason: I'm playing on CINCINNATI. The Commodores hail from the better conference. I believe the Bearcats will prove to be the better team. While I believe they could still win without him, the Bearcats are expected to have senior QB Zach Collaros back behind center. As Isaiah Pead (11 TDS, 1,110 rushing yards) noted: "We're glad to see him out there. Anytime you've got a fifth-year senior at any position on offense, it's a comfortable feeling. We're very happy to have him back." I guess so! All Collaros did was comple 63.4 percent of his throws for 1,860 yards, 14 TDs and eight interceptions. He also ran for eight scores. Remember, he was the Big East leader in passing yards AND TDs last season. While Collaros has certainly played a big part, the Bearcats defense is arguably the biggest difference in the turnaround from a 4-8 2010 to a 9-3 2011. Cincinnati allowed an average of just 20.0 points this season - down from 28 last year. Note the the Bearcats' D led the nation with 3.6 sacks and 8.9 tackles for loss per game. While the schedule was naturally quite tough, the Commodores were still only 6-6 this season. They like to run the ball - and they'll be up against a Cincy run defense which ranked seventh in the entire nation, giving up a mere 92.6 yards per game. Vanderbilt, which has 1st year coach, is only 1-12 SU and 5-8 ATS the last 1 times it faced a team with a winning record. I like what Butch Jones, now in his second year here, has done with the Bearcats and I look for them to step up and score the minor "upset." *10

Reason: I'm playing on NOTRE DAME. I've won with Florida State in back to back bowl games. Last season, I backed the Seminoles against South Carolina and they rewarded me with a 26-17 victory. The previous year, I backed them against West Virginia and they came through with a 33-21 win. While I still respect the Seminoles, this year, I feel the value lies in going against them. In each of the last two years, I felt the Seminoles were providing strong value as underdogs. Those were both relatively "big" bowl games as they were played on 12/31 and 1/1. They also represented Bowden's last bowl game and Fischer's first, without Bowden. So, there was plenty of reason to be excited for those games and they had a lot of motivation to win them. In each of the last two bowls, the Seminoles were underdogs. This year, however, they're the ones laying points. That's not such a good role for them. The Noles are 11-14 ATS the last 25 times that they were laying points and that inlcudes an ugly 2-5 ATS mark as favorites in the -3.5 to -10 range. Four of those five ATS losses resulted in SU losses, too. During the same stretch, the Irish were 6-2-1 ATS as underdogs, including a 5-2-1 ATS mark as underdogs in the +3.5 to +10 range. The Irish did lose at Stanford to close out the season. However, they'd previously won four straight and eight of nine. Note that two of their four losses came by four or less. Also, two of Notre Dame's victories came by three or less. So, getting more than a field goal could certainly prove valuable. Likewise, the Seminoles saw four games decided by five or fewer goals, most recently a 14-13 loss vs. Virginia (as a double-digit favorite!) in their home finale. While the Florida State defense is admittedly stout, the offense has been hampered by injuries all season. The Seminoles' offensive line is a weakness and the running game ranked just 99th in the country. I expect the Irish to have an advantage in that department. In what could well be a very close game, with this line having climbed above the field goal mark, I feel the value lies with the Irish. *10

Reason: I'm playing on WESTERN MICHIGAN. I had success playing on/against the Broncos this season. I feel this will be a good spot to play ON them. The Broncos had a strong season and enter playing their best football. They were 3-1 SU/ATS their last four games. Two of the victories came by double-digits and the lone loss came by only three points, when listed as a +12 point underdog. With the Broncos currently getting a few points in this one, note that three of their five losses came by four points or less. Having never won a bowl game, the Broncos should be extremely motivated. Note that Western Michigan scored at least 38 points seven times this season. Its true that the Boilermakers hail from the stronger conference and also that they too should be motivated to win this game. They've been inconsistent all season though and enter today's game having gone just 1-4 ATS their last five. While I do think Purdue will "want" to win, focus may be an issue. The Boilermakers have had tree players arrested and another suspended since the end of the season. Additionally, receiver O.J. Ross and linebacker Dwayne Beckford won't play. While the Boilermakers had four double-digit losses on the season, like WMU, they also played a number of close games. Six of their games were decided by eight or fewer points, three of them getting decided by three or less. Speaking of "close games," this bowl has a recent history of very tight games. In fact, four straight in this bowl (dating back to when it was called the Motor City Bowl) have been decided by four or fewer points, three of those by a field goal or less. The 2010 game had a score of 34-32. The 2009 score was 21-17. In 2008, the final was 24-21. Purdue played in this bowl in 2007 and that game had a final of 51-48. The Boilermakers are just 5-9-1 ATS the last 15 times that they were laying points. During that stretch, they were 1-3 ATS when facing teams from the MAC. While the Boilermakers were 1-2 SU/ATS when the line ranged from -3 to +3, the Broncos were 2-1 SU/ATS in that situation. Given all the close games, I'll grab the points. However, I expect the Broncos to step up and win this one outright. *10

Reason: I'm playing on NEVADA. As you probably know, Southern Miss. closed out the season by blowing out undefeated Houston. That victory was certainly impressive. However, it has also caused the Golden Eagles to be viewed as an "elite" team which in turn has them laying a large number here. I feel it will prove to be too large. Yes, beating Houston was impressive, which is what will stand in everyone's memories. However, lets not forget that the Golden Eagles were 0-3 ATS their previous three games. They blew out a terrible Memphis team but not by enough to cover. Prior to that, they lost by three points vs. a bad (3-9) UAB team - and they were laying -24 for that one! Before that, they won by only one vs. UCF. Also, note that Houston was undefeated but hadn't really faced any quality opposition. Houston's toughest previous opponents were arguably UCLA and LA Tech (neither elite teams) and they won those games by only five combined points. So, Houston's previous undefeated record needs to be viewed with a grain of salt. Speaking of "easy schedules," prior to facing Houston, the Golden Eagles toughest opponents were LA Tech, Marshall, Virginia, SMU and Navy. While Marshall and LA Tech have both just covered in their bowl games, none of those teams could exactly be called elite. The Golden Eagles did blow out SMU and Navy - but those teams were only a combined 12-12 on the year. The games against Virginia, Marshall and LA Tech were ALL very close. They beat the Bulldogs by only two points. They lost outright vs. Marshall (by 6) and they beat Virginia by only six. Nevada is arguably better than any of those teams, yet the Golden Eagles are being asked to lay a touchdown, or more. I believe that's asking too much. I believe that is especially true, considering that Southern Miss doesn't even want to be here (the Golden Eagles thought they deserved better and wanted to be in the Liberty Bowl) and given that their coach (Larry Fedora) has already accepted a job at North Carolina. Meanwhile, the Wolfpack have a coach (Chris Ault) who isn't going anywhere and who has guided this program for a long time. Nevada can flat out score points. Indeed, the Wolfpack ranked fifth in the entire nation in total offense, averaging just more than 522 yards per game. Of course, that comes in handy when trying to cover a spread as an underdog. The Wolfpack were 2-1 ATS when getting points this season and are 5-3 ATS as underdogs the past few seasons. While the Wolfpack finished at "only" 7-5, they faced some truly elite teams, including Oregon and Boise State - both on the road. They did get blown out in both those games (although they still covered at Boise) but their other three losses ALL came by four points or less. So, unless facing a legit top tier opponent (Boise and Oregon are both much better than Southern Miss, at least in my opinion) the Wolfpack were competitive in every single game. Note that they enter the bowls off a confidence-building 56-3 destruction of Idaho. Both teams were involved in "close" games last bowl season. The Golden Eagles lost by three; the Wolfpack won by seven. I won't be surprised if this one also comes down to the wire and am grabbing all those generous points. *10

Reason: I'm playing on DALLAS. The significance of this game depends a lot on what happens in the Giants/Jets game. However, regardless of what happens in that game, I expect the Cowboys to take care of business. Both teams played well last week. The Cowboys went on the road and crushed Tampa Bay by a score of 31-15. The Eagles victory was arguably more impressive. They dismantled the Jets, a much better team than Tampa, by a score of 45-19. A win is a win though - and lets not forget that the Cowboys won on the road while the Eagles were getting to play at their own stadium. It should also be mentioned that the Cowboys' game was played on Saturday, while the Eagles game was on Sunday. So, the Cowboys are playing on a "normal" week while the Eagles are playing on a "short" week. That's a lot different from the earlier meeting when the Eagles were off a bye. You may have heard Jerry Jones on ESPN, admitting he's "scared" of the Eagles. Those comments, combined (and largely due to) with the fact that the Eagles pummeled the Cowboys (at Philadelphia) earlier in the season, will have many backing the visitors here. I expect them to motivate the Cowboys though. Perhaps equally importantly, with many wanting to back the Eagles, we're currently able to lay less than a FG with the Cowboys - which I feel is a genuine bargain. Indeed, while not quite a 100% certainty, a SU win will almost assuredly result in an ATS victory. Having recently lost to the Giants, a team they will face on the road next week, and having been embarrassed by the Eagles in the earlier meeting, the Cowboys desperately need to win this game, ideally in convincing fashion, regardless of playoff implications. Keep in mind that Romo, formerly known for his November proficiency, has eight TDs and 0 interceptions in December. With such a high O/U line, note that the Eagles are 0-3 ATS the last three times that they played a game where the O/U line was greater than 49. Conversely, the Cowboys are 3-0 ATS the last three times that they played a game where the line was greater than 49 (the Giants game had an O/U line of 49, so didn't quite get there) and they're 8-4 ATS their last dozen in that situation. That includes a 4-1 ATS mark here at Dallas. While the Eagles are off back to back victories, note that they're only 5-9 ATS the last 14 times that they were off consecutive victories. The Cowboys covered the spread (lost by 3 as +4 point favorites) the last time they hosted the Eagles. Prior to that, they'd beaten the Eagles three straight times here. Each of those victories came by at least four points and they came by an average of 16. Although their ATS record in those games wasn't that impressive, the Cowboys are 13-7 SU the last 20 times that they were favored at home by three or fewer points. I expect them revenge-minded Cowboys to improve on those stats Saturday afternoon, and this time, I look for them to cover the spread along the way. *10

Reason: I'm playing on TAMPA BAY. While neither of these teams is "playoff-bound," there is no denying that Carolina has had a much better season. The Panthers were also the more impressive team last week. That said, I don't feel there's a large talent gap between these teams and I also don't feel that the Panthers are a team that should be laying this large a number. Keep in mind that the Panthers are only 2-5 SU here at Carolina and they've been outscored by a 25 to 20.9 margin here. While the Panthers are playing at home, the Bucs have the schedule in their favor. That's because they played last Saturday while the Panthers played on Sunday. That gives the Bucs a "normal" amount of rest while the Panthers are playing on a "short" week. I expect the Bucs to be extremely motivated. They're playing with 'revenge' from a 12/4 home loss to these same Panthers and they'd love to earn a victory to snap their losing skid before the season is over - knowing they play at Atlanta in next week's finale - that makes Saturday's game their best chance to get that victory. Note that the Bucs are 14-7-1 ATS on the road the past few seasons, 4-1 ATS as a road underdog in the +7.5 to +10 range. Including their recent loss vs. Atlanta, the Panthers are 0-3 ATS when playing a home game where the O/U line ranged from 45.5 to 49. On the other hand, including their "cover" at Green Bay, the Bucs are a perfect 6-0 ATS the last six times that they played a road game where the O/U line ranged from 45.5 to 49. I expect them to go all out and look for them to improve on those stats Saturday afternoon. *10

Reason: I'm playing on TENNESSEE. I won with the Jaguars when (9/11) these teams faced each other earlier in the season. This afternoon, however, I expect the Titans to "get the cash." The Titans certainly hurt themselves by losing vs. winless Indianapolis last week. They're still mathematically alive for the playoffs though, although they now need plenty of help. I expect them to bounce back with their best effort. Even if they don't feel they have a realistic shot at the playoffs anymore, the Titans should still be motivated to bounce back with a victory. After all, they're looking to avenge the earlier loss AND they're playing their home finale. Plus, they'd like to get rid of the bad the taste from last week's embarrassing loss. Note that setback came on the road. While the Titans are still 4-3 at home, Also, note that the Titans are 2-0 SU/ATS when coming off a division loss, each victory coming by double-digits. Off the earlier loss to Jacksonville, they responded by beating Baltimore 26-13 in their next game. Then, after losing vs. Houston, they crushed the Colts (27-10) in their next game. Even with last week's loss, note that the Titans are also 4-1 SU/ATS when facing a team with a losing record. The Jaguars certainly qualify as a losing team. Off a 41-14 loss at Atlanta, they're now 4-10 SU on the season and an awful 1-6 SU (2-4-1 ATS) on the road. Given the fact that they're only averaging 11.6 points away from Jacksonville (and only 229.1 total yards) the Jags' poor record is not surprising. The Titans are a better team. They're playing their home finale. They're much more healthy AND I expect them to be more motivated. With the line having come down from its opener, all things considered, I feel they're providing us with very fair value. *10

Reason: I'm playing on INDIANAPOLIS. Obviously, these teams have had vastly different seasons. The Texans are on top of the division. The Colts are at the bottom. Not just of the division but of the entire league. That said, the Colts are starting to play much better recently. Coming off their first victory and playing their home finale, I expect the Colts to continue their recent improved play. The Colts were actually starting to play better, even prior to last week's win. In fact, they're actually 3-0 ATS their last three games. That includes a 7-point loss at New England. Note that last week's victory came here at Indianapolis - so there was no travel during this short week. Also, note that last week's victory came against a Tennessee team which really wanted a victory - not a team going through the motions. So, it was a "legit" win. A victory can do wonders for a team's confidence, having finally gotten the "monkey off its back." The victory over the Titans, who had beaten them earlier in the season, brought the Colts to an impressive 5-0 ATS their last five games, when playing with 'revenge' from an earlier loss. That's noteworthy, as Houston also defeated them earlier in the season. As you know, the Colts have been without Peyton Manning this season. Therefore, don't expect the to give the Texans any "sympathy." Houston has been playing without starting QB Matt Schaub, backup Matt Leinart and star receiver Andre Johnson. The injuries caught up with the Texans last week. Facing a Carolina team that was "playing out the string," the Texans lost 28-13. Prior to last week's setback, the Texans needed a furious 4th quarter rally to win by 1-point. Their previous two victories each came by a touchdown. So, this has not been a team which has been winning by wide margins. The Texans are now 2-5 ATS their last seven, when facing a team with a losing record during the second half of the season. During the same stretch, the Colts are 10-3 ATS when facing a team with a winning record during the second half of the season. They're also 8-1 SU and 7-1-1 ATS their last nine Thursday games. While those results came with Manning running the show, I expect the Colts to rise to the occasion and for them to earn AT LEAST another cover. *10

Reason: I'm playing on MARSHALL. Many are likely to back the favorite in this one. After all, the Golden Panthers had the superior record, are well-coached and are playing in their home state. I'm not buying it. The Thundering Herd are also well-coached and are playing their best football of the season right now. I don't feel that they're satisfied just to be here and I don't feel they'll be at all intimidated by the Panthers. Yes, FIU had eight wins compared to Marshall's six. However, keep in mind that the Thundering Herd played the likes of West Virginia, V-Tech, Southern Miss, Ohio, Tulsa, Houston and Louisville. ALL seven of those teams are playing in bowls. The Panthers, on the other hand, also faced Louisville but otherwise their only other two bowl opponents were LA-Lafayette and Arkansas State - both teams from within their own conference. FIU lost both those games, while also losing to Western Kentucky, the other team in their conference with a winning conference record. So, the difference in records needs to be viewed with a "grain of salt." Note that both teams beat Louisville but Marshall also beat Southern Miss, a victory which was arguably more impressive than anything the Panthers accomplished. FIU is indeed well-coached. However, with their coach (Mario Cristobal) being talked up as a possible hire at a "bigger" school (he reportedly spoke to Pittsburgh on Friday) the Panthers could be slightly distracted. While not spoken of so much, note that Marshall is also very well-coached. Yes, FIU enters on a 3-game winning streak. However, those three games came against the likes of Florida Atlantic, LA Monroe and Middle Tennessee State. Those three teams had a combined record of 7-29 overall and a combined 4-19 mark in conference play. So, even those games need to be taken with a grain of salt. Marshall enters off back to back victories of its own, beating East Carolina in its final game to become bowl eligible - the Pirates are arguably much better than any of the three teams that FIU beat to close out the season. While the Panthers were 3-5 ATS as favorites, the Herd were 5-3 ATS as underdogs. The Panthers are 8-12-1 ATS when laying points the past few seasons. Note that they're also an awful 2-15 SU the last 17 times that they played with two or more week's rest in between games. The Panthers saw five games decided by a TD or less. The Herd also saw five decided by a TD or less. In a game that could easily come down to the wire, I'm grabbing all the points I can get. *10

Reason: I'm playing on SAN FRANCISCO. I cashed tickets in both these teams' games last week. I won with the Steelers/Browns 'under' the total and also won with the Cardinals against SF. (Part of an otherwise forgettable week in the NFL.) This week, however, I feel the value lies with the 49ers. While the Steelers may have Rothlisberger in the lineup, Big Ben is not 100% healthy. "Normal" quarterbacks would not be back so fast from a high-ankle sprain, an injury Rothlisberger said felt like he had a broken leg. He's proven to be as tough as any QB out there - however, no matter how tough he is, any lack of mobility could well hurt his play. Batch is a capable backup - but he's not Rothlisberger. He's also now 37 years old. Whether its a hobbled Rothlisberger or the 37-year old Batch, the Steelers will likely try to protect their QB with a fairly heavy dose of the ground game. However, that plays into the strength of the 49ers, as they're extremely tough against the run. Indeed, they haven't allowed an opposing player to rush for 100 yards since 2009, a span of 34 games. Perhaps even more impressive, the 49ers have yet to allow a rushing TD this entire season - the longest any team has done so since the 1970 merger. Even without linebacker Patrick Willis, who is likely out, this is an extremely stingy unit. Note that the Steelers D also takes a big hit with the suspension of linebacker James Harrison, who appealed his suspension but was denied. Obviously, this is a very big game for both teams. Perhaps even more important than the playoff implications, I believe the 49ers desperately want some respect. They've been among the top teams all season but many have continued to call them a fraud. I'm not currently ready to call for them to win a playoff game at Lambeau. However, I do fully believe they're capable of knocking off the Steelers at home, in a regular season game. A win here will get them the "respect" they feel that they deserve, while also giving them much needed confidence that they can beat "elite" teams, come playoff time. Note that this is the 49ers regular season home finale. They're 6-1 SU and 6-0-1 ATS here on the season. Obviously, they want to keep that "unbeatable" feeling alive here. The Steelers have also been very good at home. However, they haven't been as tough on the road. They're 4-2 SU and but just 2-4 ATS away from Pittsburgh. Their recent road games have come against the likes of KC, Cincy, Arizona and Indianapolis. Their only two road games against teams currently with more than eight wins (Baltimore and Houston) both resulted in losses, each setback coming by at least a TD. The Steelers are 0-2 ATS the last two times they were off a divisional victory. On the other hand, the 49ers are 3-0 ATS the last three times that they were off a division loss. They're also 3-0 ATS their last three Monday night games, stats I expect them to improve upon here. *10

Reason: I'm playing on CHICAGO. Many won't want to touch the Bears this week. After all, Chicago is without its top QB and RB and is off a "heart-breaking" loss against Tebow and the Broncos. Meanwhile, Seattle just won big in front of the national TV audience. That's worked in our favor though, as we're getting the Bears with quite a reasonable line. I expect them to bounce back with a convincing victory. Yes, off back to back wins, Seattle has been surging of late. However, lets not forget that the Seahawks are off three straight home games. Without question, they're a much stronger team in the Pacific Northwest, where their fans give them a ton of support - and where they catch opposing teams in a tough travel spot. However, they're not nearly so good on the road. The Seahawks are averaging only 15.5 points away from home, winning just two of six. One of those wins came at lowly St. Louis and while the other came at New York, they were dominated statistically in that game, giving up 395 yards in the air alone. Going back further finds the Seahawks at a terrible 5-18 SU and 6-16-1 ATS on the road, the past few seasons. During that stretch, note that they're also an awful 4-11 ATS (3-12 SU) when off a divisional game, going a brutal 49-78-3 ATS their last 120 in that situation. Yes, off back-to-back-to-back losses, the Bears have struggled of late. However, only of those games came at home. The Bears are much better at home and are still 5-2 SU (4-3 ATS) here at Chicago. They've outscored opponents by an average score of 27.3 to 17.3 here. With this being their home finale, I expect their absolute best effort. Both teams are mathematically still alive for the playoffs. However, the Bears have a better chance. More importantly, the Bears have a significant scheduling advantage here. I've already noted that they are much better at home (while Seattle is much worse on the road) but this week's schedule is also very favorable. That's because the Seahawks are playing on a short week and just had to travel from the West Coast. Now, this West Coast based club must play an early game in the Eastern Time zone. I did win with the Seahawks when they knocked the Saints out of the playoffs last year. However, I came right back and went against them here at Chicago the following week, making the Bears one of my biggest plays of the season. The Bears beat them by double-diigts. After last week's debacle, Coach Lovie Smith was quoted as saying: "Definitely one of the toughest ones I've had to deal with, we've had to deal with ... We don't like it, but it's how we respond and we will respond." I expect the Bears to do just that, responding with a convincing win and cover. *10 Personal Favorite

Reason: I'm playing on ST LOUIS. As you know, the Rams have NOT had a good season. They're also off a poor showing on Monday night at Seattle, which many watched on National TV. That's caused this line to be very high. Given the play of the Bengals lately, I feel it will prove to be too high. The Bengals lost an absolute heartbreaker last week, blowing a very important game (which they were leading) and losing at the buzzer. Indeed, facing the Texans' third string QB, they gave up a TD with two seconds left to lose by a point. Despite that setback, the Bengals aren't out of the playoff race yet. That makes this a "must win" game for them, which has also gone into this line being "extra high." Must win games don't always win though (not by a longshot) and last week's setback figures to take a toll. Not just "mentally" either. The Bengals lost right guard Bobbie Williams for the season in that game. Yes, the Rams are dealing with some pretty serious injury issues. This is a team which has not quit though. Playing at home, with a chance to "do some spoiling," whether its Clemens (likely) or Bradford leading the troops, I fully expect them to respond with their very best effort. As " coach Steve Spagnuolo noted: "We're not going to use any excuses. We've got to find a way to win." Despite all their trouble, the Rams have managed to go 1-1 SU/ATS in games against AFC opponents. They're 6-4 ATS in non-conf. action the past few seasons. Even when the Bengals have won, they've rarely won big. Only one of their seven victories came by greater than 10 points and that came back in October. Their only two wins in November and December came by three and seven points. The Bengals are now a dismal 4-14 ATS when laying points, including a terrible 1-7 ATS as a favorite in the -3.5 to -9.5 range. I expect them to have their hands full the entire way here. *10

Reason: I'm playing on SAN DIEGO STATE. These teams both finished with identical 8-4 records. LA-Lafayette had the superior ATS record and will play this game much closer to home. However, the Aztecs had the better "away" record and I believe that they're the stronger squad. The Aztecs were 4-1 SU on the road. They outscored opponents by a 24 to 20.8 margin in those games. On the other hand, LA-Lafayette was only 3-4 away from home, getting outscored by a 34.4 to 30.9 margin in those games. The Aztecs also enter as the "hotter" team. They won their last two games, a 31-14 blowout win at UNLV followed up by a 35-28 victory over Fresno State. Prior to that, they covered the spread vs. Boise State, scoring 35 in the process. On the other hand, the Ragin Cajuns enter off back to back losses. Each defeat came by more than a touchdown. San Diego State is 10-4 SU its last 14 non-conference games. During the same stretch, LA-Lafayette is 4-8 SU against non-conference opponents. Going back further finds the Cajuns at a dismal 14-52 their last 66 non-conf. games. Of course, SD State plays in the far more difficult conference and was tested far more often. The Aztecs faced the likes of Michigan, TCU, Boise and Air Force. Other than the loss to Arizona, a team which was inconsistent this year, the Cajuns only top tier opponent was Oklahoma State - that game came back in September and they allowed 61 points, losing by 27. In these "early" bowl games, its always important to consider which team is happier to be there. One could potentially argue that the game is bigger for the Rajin Cajuns as they're their making its first bowl appearance in 41 years. Still, the Aztecs aren't exactly used to playing bowl games every year; they played last year but that was their first bowl appearance since the 90s. So, I feel they're still going to be "fired up" to be here - particularly as last year's team didn't have to travel for its bowl game - a 35-14 blowout of Navy, which was played at San Diego. Meanwhile, the Cajuns may be feeling "happy just to be here." In the end, I look for the Aztecs' superior talent to be the difference. They've got a bigtime running back (Ronnie Hillman had 4 TDs and 178 yrds in the finale vs. Fresno!) and an experienced and very capable senior QB. Ryan Lindley has thrown for more than 12,000 yards (with 87 TDs) in his career with SD State. I expect the Aztecs to again score plenty of points and feel the Cajins will have trouble keeping up. *10

**CORRECTION - ORIGINALLY SENT OUT SEATTLE IN THE AREA ABOVE BY ACCIDENT** Reason: I'm playing on ST. LOUIS. Often, I find myself backing the Seahawks when they play here in Seattle. I won with them when they beat the Eagles here in their last game. I won with them when they beat the Cardinals in their home opener. I came back with the very next week when they "covered the spread" (2 point loss) against the Falcons here. In fact, I even had them when they beat the Saints here in last year's playoff game. (Note that I also avoided playing on them in their two losses here this season, when they were beaten by Cincy and Washington.) In other words, as I've pointed out in my analysis in each of those games, I'm well aware that the Seahawks typically play much better football up here in the Pacific Northwest. That said, I don't feel that they're a team which is ready to be laying double-diigts. Therefore, for the first time all season, I'm going to go against them in a home game. The Rams have certainly had a disappointing season. Last week's loss at SF may have been a season low, as they were blanked 26-0. That result, combined with Seattle's big "TV" win over the Eagles are being factored into this line, making it higher than it would have been otherwise. Again, I feel it will prove to be too high. Seattle has had five home victories in the 2011 calendar year. Of those five, only last week's win vs. the Eagles came by greater than 10 points. Note that the win over the Eagles came at a cost, as the Seahawks lost left tackle Russell Okung for the season. Considering that the offensive line was already banged-up, that could well be costly. Rookie right tackles John Moffitt and James Carpenter were already out with knee injuries. Of course, the Rams are also dealing with injury issues of their own, most notably at the QB position. It currently remains unclear who will get the call. However, even if it turns out being Tom Brandstater, I expect the entire Rams team to come ready to play. Steve Spagnuolo noted this of Brandstater: "The good thing is we had him for a good month period there so the system is not new to him. Last week he was in there with the practice squad reps and kind of got the juices flowing again." Note that the O/U line is very low; currently 36.5 as I type this. With points expected to be at a premium, getting double-digits with the underdog becomes that much more appealing. Speaking of the low O/U line, the Seahawks are an ugly 8-18 ATS, including 1-3 SU/ATS the last four times that they played a home game where the O/U line ranged from 35.5 to 38 points. During that time, the Rams were 4-1 ATS the last five times that they played a road game when the O/U line ranged from 35.5 to 38 points. That includes a 1-0 SU/ATS mark this season. Playing with "revenge" and looking to avoid another embarrassing loss, I expect the Rams to rise to the occasion and earn at least the cover. *10 Best Bet

Reason: I'm playing on DALLAS. Obviously, this is a huge game for both teams. One could argue that its a "bigger" game for the Giants. After all, if they lose this game, they'll have very little chance of winning the division. That will likely cause many to "take the points." However, I feel this game is every bit as big for the Cowboys. They know that if they don't win this one, the teams will both be tied with a 7-6 record. They also know that they have to play at New York to close out the season. So, if the Cowboys don't win this one, it means they'd likely be forced to win on the road. Armed with that knowledge, they know they better take care of business here. Both teams are off tough losses. The Giants fought hard (and covered) vs. the Packers but came up short. The Cowboys loss wasn't as "impressive," as they were beaten (in OT) by lowly Arizona. A loss is a loss though - and I feel that losing to Arizona will provide the Cowboys with some real fire here. That was a game they expected to win - while the Giants were large underdogs vs. the Packers Those backing the Giants will point to the fact that the Cowboys have struggled on Sunday nights recently, in December and also against the Giants, here at Dallas. In the end, I feel those will only serve to provide the Cowboys with further "hunger" though. Motivation aside, I feel the Cowboys are currently the better team. The Cowboys have a powerful running game - and the Giants are among the worst teams in the league against the run. Currently, the NY rushing defense is 23rd in the league, allowing 127 rushing yards per game. Of course, numerous injuries haven't helped matters. In addition to being unable to stop the run, the Giants can't run the ball either. In fact, even with improved numbers against GB last week, they still rank last in the league in rushing, averaging a mere 83.8 yards per game. Both offenses are expected to get a star wide receiver back, as it appears Miles Austin will return for Dallas while Mario Manningham may well be back for NY. Both are very capable players. However, in my opinion, Austin's return may well benefit the Cowboys more. I say that as the Giants had already been getting fairly solid receiver play while the same cannot necessarily be said of Dallas. While it won't get as much attention, note that Dallas is also expecting to get blocking fullback Tony Fiammetta back in the lineup. Some may argue that Manning is currently better than Romo. I won't even go that far though. I feel both are equally capable and I believe this year's numbers reflect that. Manning does have a few more yards (3705 to 3325) but Romo has a better passer rating and fewer interceptions. While some may point to the Cowboys' poor late season record, note the Giants are still just 2-10 ATS the last dozen times that they faced a team with a winning record during the second half of the season. In the end, I look for homefield advantage, combined with the fact that the Cowboys are better at running the ball and stopping the run to prove the difference. I expect Dallas to take a huge step towards locking up the division, improving to 10-4 ATS the last 14 times that they played a home game with an O/U line in the 45.5 to 49 range. *10 Annihilator

Reason: I'm playing on ARMY. As you're probably aware, Navy has dominated this series in recent years. In fact, the Midshipmen have won nine straight meetings with Army by double-digits. The teams are far more evenly matched this year though and I'm expecting a much closer affair. Admittedly, the Black Knights didn't have a great season. They're off three straight losses and finished just 3-8 SU and 5-6 ATS. This year, however, Navy wasn't much better. The Midshipmen also finished with sub-500 record. They were 4-7 SU, matching Army's 5-6 ATS mark. While Navy beat up on Troy, the Trojans had a down year this season. A more impressive victory came against SMU. However, it should be noted that the Midshipmen won that one by only seven. That was one of SIX games that they played which was decided by seven or fewer points. Their other two victories came against Western Kentucky and Delaware, not exactly national powerhouses. The Knights also played some close games. Three of their games were decided by seven or less. While their most recent victory (55-0 vs. Fordham) came against a lesser team, the Knights did also knock off Tulane and Northwestern. Navy has had trouble against "losing" teams. Even including last year's cover against Army, the Midshipmen are still only 3-8 ATS their last 11 against teams with a losing record. On the other hand, during the same stretch, Army was 5-2 SU/ATS when matched up against a team with a losing record. Needless to say, both teams will really want this game. However, given their losing streak in the series and knowing that this may finally be their chance, I expect Army to be a little more "hungry." In the end, in a game that could easily come down to the wire, I expect that to lead to at least a cover for the Knights. *10

Reason: I'm playing on ST. LOUIS. When the schedule was released, this game figured to potentially have playoff implications. That's obviously not the case. At 9-2, the 49ers are all but mathematically the division champs; they'll lock up the division if they can win here. On the other hand, the Rams are just 2-9. They've been out of the playoff race for ages. I respect the 49ers and Harbaugh's clearly done a great job in turning things around. That said, I successfully played against them in their last game (they lost at Baltimore) and I don't feel that they're the type of team that's built to be laying this many points. Note that five of the 49ers last six games have been decided by 10 points or less, the other was decided by 16. As for the Rams, its true that they've been hit hard by injuries. Even this week, AJ Feeley has had to take the snaps in practice, as they were trying to give banged-up Sam Bradford some extra time. Getting this many points, I'm comfortable with either Bradford or Feeley. Feeley was reportedly sharp in practice and the veteran would love a chance to get a shot. Bradford's been coming around. Last week, he threw for more than 200 yards with one TD and no INTS. He also had a great game against the 49ers last season. In fact, at the time, he broke the NFL's single season record for completions by a rookie, leading the Rams to a 25-17 victory and leading to the firing of Mike Singletary. That 25-17 victory was at St. Louis. The Rams also played the 49ers tough here at San Francisco though. They lost 23-20 in OT. I feel this Rams team will show up ready to play. Despite the record, they haven't quit and their coach and players seem to be remaining optimistic. They don't want the 49ers clinching at their expense and would love to knock them off here. While their road record is admittedly pretty poor, the Rams did win their last road game (previous road game was a 6-pt loss) and they're allowing a respectable 23.4 points on the road overall. Keep in mind that the Rams beat the Saints outright and held the Packers to only 24 points, at Lambeau. So, they've been able to hold their own against the other two best in the NFC. The Rams are 4-1 ATS the last five times they played a road game where the O/U line ranged from 35 to 38 and I look for them to give the 49ers a much tougher test than most will be expecting. *10 Best Bet

Reason: I'm playing on TAMPA BAY. There isn't much difference between the records of these two teams. The Panthers are 3-8. The Bucs are 4-7. One could also call the Bucs the more "disappointing" team, as their expectations were significantly higher than Carolina's expectations. I do feel that the Bucs are still the superior team though. I also feel that getting them at this line, at home, is providing us with excellent line value. The Bucs are taking a big step down in class, as this represents their "easiest" game (on paper) in many weeks. I expect them to make the most of their opportunity. While neither team will be making the playoffs, both should want this game. Coming off a win, the Panthers would like to make two in a row. Keep in mind that their victory came against the winless Colts (barely) and that they haven't won two in a row in two seasons. In addition to the win over Indy, it should also be noted that the Panthers other two victories both came at home and that they came against Jacksonville, a team which just fired its coach and Washington, another of this season's worst teams. The Bucs should be every bit as "hungry" as the Panthers, if not more. They're taking a lot of heat in the media for being a bust. However, in fairness, lets take a look at their recent schedule. Their last two games were on the road, they came at Tennessee and Green Bay. They were competitive in each, leading at Tennessee in the 4th while "only" losing by nine at Green Bay. Prior to that, they had a 5-game stretch which featured road games at San Francisco and New Orleans. Home games against Houston and New Orleans and a game "across the pond" in London England, against the Bears. In other words, they've been flying all over the map while facing tough team after tough team. Note that they did win one of those games against the Saints, arguably one of the best teams in football. Prior to grueling stretch, when facing the type of "easier" teams that Carolina has been up against, the Bucs went 3-0, knocking off the likes of the Colts and Vikings. They also beat a good Atlanta team while nearly winning vs. Detroit. So, while the Panthers victories have come against "cupcakes," the Bucs have actually beaten some good teams like the Saints and Falcons. The Bucs beat the Panthers by scores of 20-7 and 31-16 last season. While this is their first time in that situation this season, they're 5-2-1 ATS the last eight times that they faced a team with a losing record in the second half of the season. The Bucs are 7-2 "SU" the last nine times that they were "laying points." I expect them to improve on those numbers on Sunday afternoon, covering the small number along the way. *10 Personal Favorite

Reason: I'm playing on WISCONSIN. The Spartans have the higher ranking and are certainly tough. However, I feel that the Badgers are favored for good reason. The Badgers did lose vs. the Sparatans in the "regular" season. However, that was at Michigan State and the Badgers weren't as tough when playing on an opponent's home field. Note that I successfully played against the Badgers on the road when they lost at Ohio State AND when they failed to cover at Illinois. However, again those were both on the opposing team's home field. In this case, the game will be played on a "neutral" field. Therefore, its worth noting that the Badgers are 12-7 SU/ATS their last 19 "neutral" field games, including 3-0 ATS their last four. On the other hand, the Spartans are 3-10 SU/ATS their last 13 "neutral" field games, going 0-3 ATS their last three. While the Spartans have won just two of their last 10 December games, the Badgers have won six of their last eight December games. Both teams play great defense. The Badgers allow 15.2 points per game and the Spartans allow 15.4. The Badgers have the edge on the other side of the ball though. Michigan State averages a respectable 30.2 points per game. However, that number dips all the way down to 18.8 away from home. Meanwhile, Wisconsin is averaging a whopping 44. 8 points per game, 35.8 on the road. The Spartans averaged 29 points per game against conference opponents, the Badgers averaged 43. The Badgers average 477.1 yards of offense, 430.4 on the road. The Spartans average 383.7 yards of offense, just 337.8 on the road. The Badgers are 3-0 SU/ATS the last three times that they were neutral field favorites in the -7.5 to -10 range. The Spartans are 0-4 SU/ATS their last four, as neutral field underdogs in the +7.5 to +10 range. Its payback time. *10 Personal Favorite

Reason: I'm playing on CLEMSON. I successfully played against Clemson last week. The Tigers already had the division wrapped up though and therefore, I expected the Gamecocks to be the more hungry squad. That turned out to be the case, as South Carolina smashed the Tigers by a score of 34-13. Don't underestimate this team based on the results of the last two weeks. The Tigers were as high as #5 in the national rankings at one point and they still finished with nine wins. At one point they beat three straight ranked opponents, one of those came at Blacksburg, a 23-3 victory against these same Hokies. While I'm aware that the Hokies have been tough in the "revenge" role. However, I feel factor is often over-rated and in this case, I feel its been another factor, along with Clemson's last two losses, which are helping to provide us with excellent line value. Admittedly, the V-Tech defensive stats are far better than the Clemson ones. The Tigers have the type of offense that can help make up for that though. They averaged 33.2 points and 440 yards per game - both better stats than V-Tech, which also has a strong attack. Also, as the Hokies know, the Tigers ARE fully capable of playing tough defense. Clemson held Virginia Tech to a season low 258 yards and without a touchdown; The first time that has happened at home for the Hokies since 1995. The Hokies did blow out Virginia last time out. However, three of their previous six games, including two of their previous three, were decided by four points or less. So, they've been involved in plenty of recent close games. Clemson is 48-32-2 ATS the last 82 times it was getting points. That includes an outstanding 25-12-1 ATS when the Tigers were listed as underdogs in the +3.5 to +10 range, including 5-1 ATS their last six in that role. The Tigers are also 3-1 ATS the last four times that they were off back to back losses. I'm expecting this one to go down to the wire and am grabbing the generous points. *10

Reason: I'm playing on HAWAII. The Cougars have the better record and may indeed be the better team. However, that doesn't always ensure a cover. Far from it. BYU is playing at Hawaii, often difficult to begin with. However, that task could be extra difficult, as the Cougars are likely to be more susceptible to the "island distractions," due to having already agreed to play in the Armed Forces Bowl. While the Cougars are far from home and have little to play for, the Warriors have much on the line. If they win here, they get to play in the Hawaii Bowl. If they lose, they don't play in a bowl and have to watch two other teams play here in their stadium. Yes, they lost their starting QB a few weeks back. However, this is a team which has been able to get strong QB play over the years, from just about anyone they throw in there. The Warriors showed that in their last game, earning a double-digit win, scoring 35 points in the process. While BYU averages 24 points per game on the road, Hawaii averages 37 here at home. With the pointspread up over a touchdown, it should be noted that the Warriors have been involved in numerous close games. They won by 12 last week. However, three of their previous six games were decided by a field goal or less. Each of their last seven games has been decided by a dozen points or less. It should also be noted that the Cougars are only 2-5 ATS the last seven times that they were favored in the -3.5 to -10 range. The Warriors lost by just three points at BYU the last time (2002) that they faced the Cougars and are 6-3 ATS the last nine meetings in the series. I'll take the points but I expect the Warriors to want this game more and for that to lead to an outright uspet. *10

Reason: I'm playing on OHIO. These teams are both certainly deserving of being here. Both teams are talented and both played their best down the stretch. The Huskies enter on a 7-game winning streak. The Bobcats aren't far behind them though, as they've won five straight. While I successfully played against the Bobcats in each of their last two games, I feel they're the team which is providing us with the value here. Yes, I played against Ohio each of its last two games. However, each time I said that I respected that Bobcats, only that I felt they were laying too many points. They still won each game outright, most recently a 7-point win over a fairly solid and determined Miami Ohio squad. This week, however, its the Bobcats which are getting points. In fact, due in part to failing to cover the last two weeks, they're even getting more than a field goal. Given all the recent close games by these teams, that could easily prove significant. Last week, among the reasons, I played against the Bobcats was that they'd already clinched a spot in this game. They still won. But "only" by seven. Including that victory, they've now seen seven of nine games decided by eight points or less. Four of those were decided by four or less, two by a single point. The Huskies are no stranger to close games either. Laying -17.5, they won by only six last time out. In their previous game, they were laying -18 and won by just three points. In fact, three of their last five games have been decided by a field goal or less, four of them decided by six or fewer. Not surprisingly, the Huskies were only 4-6 ATS as favorites this season. Meanwhile, the Bobcats are 8-4 ATS the last dozen times they were listed as underdogs. There is no denying that the Huskies have a bigtime offense, as they average nearly 40 points per game. The Bobcats are no slouches offensively either though. They've got the third best offense in the conference and rank 18th in the country. Its on the other side of the ball that the Bobcats figure to have the advantage. They allow just 21.7 points and 352.1 yards per game. The Bobcats allowed a few more yards (385) on the road, but still less than 400. On the other hand, the Huskies allowed 32 points per game, including 41 on the road. When playing away from home, they allowed a whopping 535.5 yards per game. The Bobcats, who have a veteran coach in Frank Solich, have had some extra preparation time. They last played on 11/22. The Huskies, who have a 1st year head coach, haven't had as much time, as they last played on 11/25. With the Bobcats at 6-1 ATS the last seven times they faced a team with a winning record, I'm grabbing the points. *10

Reason: I'm playing on SEATTLE. While the Eagles chances may be a little better, both teams know that it will take a miracle to get them into the playoffs. While Seattle knows it won't make it - I feel the Philadelphia players probably feel much the same way. After all, they're three games behind the Cowboys, with only five games remaining. As if that wasn't bad enough, they're also two behind the Giants. Overtaking one team might be possible but passing them both would be very tough. Knowing that their chances are "extremely slim" and given the overall situation, I feel the Eagles "may not be at their best" here. Keep in mind that they got blown out by double-digits last week and are now playing a road game, on a short-week, on the other side of the country. Of course, it should also be mentioned that they're again expected to be without Michael Vick. As mentioned, the Seahawks know they won't be making the playoffs. Still, this is a rare home game on ESPN for them - and their passionate home fans will surely be fired up. Unlike the Eagles, the Seahawks did not have to travel in between games, as they were here last week. Again, I feel this factor carries added significance due to the short week. While they're "only" 3-2 ATS here this season, the Seahawks are an excellent 14-8 ATS their past 22 here. In fact, that includes a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS mark when they played a home game and the O/U line ranged from 42.5 to 45. The Eagles are just 3-6 SU/ATS as favorites this season. With both teams having been involved in a number of close games this season, I'll gladly take the points. That said, I'm expect the Seahawks to prove more motivated and look for them to score the outright upset. *10 best bet

Reason: I'm playing on SOUTH FLORIDA. This is a very big game for the Mountaineers. West Virginia is already bowl eligible. However, the Mountaineers can clinch a 3-way tie for the Big East Title. To do that, they'd need to win this game AND have Cincy beat UConn on Saturday. Given that the Huskies generally aren't as good on the road and that the Bearcats are currently a -9 point (-350 on ML) favorite, the Mountaineers probably feel that their chances of earning that 3-way tie are pretty good. (If Cincy loses, then Louisville wins.) If the 3-way tie happened, the team with the highest ranking in the final BCS standings would get the BCS berth, possibly the Orange Bowl on January 4th. While that certainly makes this a very big game, it also gives them a much bigger game to "look ahead" to. Despite West Virginia coach Dana Holgorsen insisting otherwise, that's a very real possibility. Whether or not that's the case, I expect the Mountaineers to run into a tougher opponent than they're expecting. While this is a huge game for the Mountaineers, its a "must win" game for the Bulls, if they want to become bowl eligible. It also offers them one last chance to redeem themselves for what has otherwise admittedly been a very disappointing finish to the season. Keep in mind that the Bulls were expected to contend for the title themselves. Also, lets remember that they haven't missed a bowl game since 2004. The Bulls, who are hoping to have QB Daniels back, haven't been winning but they're still fighting hard. In fact, their last five losses have been by a combined total of 25 points. Coach Holtz had this to say about the losses: "I take it personal. We've come close, but we haven't done a good enough job." While I successfully played against the Bulls the last time (9/29) that they played on a Thursday night. That was on the road though (at Pittsburgh) and they weren't in "desperation mode." I expect Holtz to have his team better prepared this time and fired up to play the big game at home. The Bulls lost at West Virginia last season but they beat the Mountaineers each of the last two games here at South Florida. I expect them to step up and do it again on Thursday. *10

Reason: I'm playing on NEW ORLEANS. I rode the Saints a number of times when they won the Superbowl two years ago. Not only did I go 2-0 on my Superbowl picks (Saints and Under) but I also won with them in the playoffs, leading up to the Superbowl. That wasn't all though. I'd identified them as an elite team early on that season and I played on them in a pair of big games, each of which I called "statement" games. One of those games was a Monday Nighter against the Patriots, which happened to be right at the end of November, just like this one. The Saints didn't just beat the Patriots, they crushed them by a score of 38-17. However, prior to that, I identified their game against the Giants as a "statement" game and played on the Saints. At the time, the Giants were riding high with an undefeated record. The Saints destroyed them by a score of 48-27. Not bad considering that the Giants had the #1 ranked defense at the time. Drew Brees, who hit 15 straight completions at at one point in that game, noted afterwards: "We wanted to really dictate the tempo of the game the whole way through. Seven different guys scored touchdowns. That's big. That's the type of rhythm that, when you get in, you feel like you can call anything and it's going to work." Brees would finish 23 of 30, throwing for 369 yards and four TDs. Eli Manning, on the other hand, finished 14 of 31 for 178 yards. Manning who said: "it's not easy playing there," is currently playing behind a revamped and banged-up offensive line. He's already been sacked 19 times. That's three more than all of last season. As they were prior to that 2009 game, the Saints are beginning to really play well. They're 2-0 SU/ATS their last two games. They won their last home game by double-digits. In fact, they're 4-0 SU/ATS here at home, winning by an average margin of 39.7 to 17.2. On the other hand, the Giants are off back to back losses. The Saints were coming off a bye the last time that they beat up on the Giants. Including that blowout, they're 3-0 SU/ATS the last three times that they were off a bye. In this case, due in part to the offseason rule changes but also as he believes in them, Payton gave his players eight days off during the bye week. This team isn't about to fall apart during the time off though - and I expect them to come back refreshed and ready to go. Brees had this to say: "We have enough of a veteran team now, and leadership and character, and guys just knowing the right thing to do to take care of themselves and make sure they're prepared and ready when we come back." As for Brees, he's 3-0 in his career against the Giants. In those games, he's completed better than 65% of his passes, throwing for seven touchdowns without an interception. His teams won those games by an average of 22 points. Payton is a smart guy and he's well aware that his Superbowl winning team won big in Week 12 (just like this) on a late November Monday night (against the Pats) and that could well have been looked at as a "springboard" for that team, as it really gave them the confidence they can beat anyone. Having already come up short against the Packers (not my much) on "primetime" to begin this season, I fully expect to want to be very motivated to repeat that winning formula. With all due respect to the Giants, this is an extremely powerful Saints team, one which is nearly unbeatable here. With Brees again getting the better of Manning, I expect another double-digit victory. *10

Reason: I'm playing on KANSAS CITY. The Steelers almost always get a lot of love from the betting public. Throw in the fact that nearly everyone just witnessed the Chiefs get destroyed (by the Pats) on National TV AND that the Chiefs are without their starting QB AND we're getting an extremely generous line with the home underdog. Most everyone has written off the Chiefs, who check in at 4-6. And, its true that the odds are certainly now against them. That said, they're still tied with the Chargers and are still within a game of the Broncos and within two of the Raiders. The Chargers and Broncos play each other, so one of those teams will lose. Meanwhile, the Raiders have a fairly tough challenge as they're up against a solid Chicago team. (Although that game is at Oakland and the Bears are withouth their starting QB.) While the Chiefs do have some tough games remaining, they already beat the Raiders at Oakland and get a chance to face them at KC on Christmas Eve. In other words, if the Chiefs could somehow find a way to beat the Steelers, they'd still be very much alive. Obviously, beating the Steelers will be easier said than done. That said, the very fact that they're still mathematically alive for the AFC West title should give them plenty of motivation. Also, the last thing they want is to get embarrassed on National TV in consecutive weeks. Last week, Palko was making his first start and the Chiefs were playing on the road. Although KC acquired Orton, Palko is expected to get the call again. He's now got a start under his belt and he's now playing at home. He knows this is likely his last chance for a while and I expect him an improved effort. (I'd also be comfortable if Orton was the starter.) The Steelers are off a bye, which did allow them to get healthier. Even with that time off, they're still banged-up though. Every game is indeed important to the Steelers right now, although arguably not as "critical" as this one is to the Chiefs. Of course, they also want to look good on National TV. Still, this is a game "sandwiched" in between games vs. division rival Cincinnati and before the Bengals, the Steelers had faced Baltimore and New England. In other words, it may be easy to look past "lowly" KC, a non-divisional opponent which has a losing record. The Steelers were an 11-point favorite when they traveled here in 2009. That game came down to the wire. In fact, the Chiefs won by three points, 27-24. Including that result, the Steelers are a money-burning 10-21 ATS the last 31 times that they were favored by double-digits, going just 3-6 ATS their last nine in that role. I expect them to have their hands full once again, as the Chiefs, 11-3 ATS their last 14 as double-digit underdogs, bounce back and come ready to play. *10 Main Event

Reason: I'm playing on SAN DIEGO. The AFC West is still very much for grabs. That makes this game a huge game for both teams. At 5-5, Denver checks in with the better record. However, I believe that the 4-6 Chargers are favored by this many points for good reason. Taking a look at the total yards between these teams is quite revealing. The Chargers are outgaining opponents by an average margin of 390.2 to 336.1. At home, they're outgaining opponents by an average margin of 393.4 to 308.8. On the other hand, the Broncos are being outgained by a 356.4 to 309.2 margin. Yes, Tebow and the Broncos have managed a couple of victories in a row. They caught the Chiefs off-guard though and then caught the Jets on a short week. This time, however, the Chargers know what to expect and have had plenty of time to prepare for it. Despite their recent skid, the Chargers should have plenty of confidence. They already won by five at Denver earlier and they hammered the Broncos by a score of 35-14 here last season. The Chargers were laying -8.5 for that one but we're getting a lower line on them here. They're 4-2 ATS the last six times that they were listed as home favorites in the -3.5 to -7 range. This is still an extremely talented team, one which still believes. I expect them to bounce back and improve on those stats in convincing "blowout" fashion. *10 Personal Favorite

Reason: I'm playing on INDIANAPOLIS. With an 0-10 record, naturally, not many people want anything to do with the Colts right now. I don't blame them. The Colts have been pretty bad. That said, I feel this is an excellent spot for them. All that negative sentiment has the Colts getting an excellent line, currently more than a field goal. Yet, they're playing a team that is in free-fall of late. The Panthers are 0-3 SU/ATS their last three and they've been outscored by a combined 103-59 margin. Note that the Panthers have yet to win a game on the road. They're 0-4 away from Carolina. That brings them to 3-18 SU on the road the past few seasons. Yet, once again, they're laying more than a field goal. With their remaining four games coming against New England, Baltimore, Tennessee and Houston, the Colts know this game offers them the best chance for a victory. Whatever people might say, this team does not want to finish winless. The Colts are off a bye, giving them extra time to prepare for this one. They're 3-0 SU/ATS the last three times they were off a bye. On the other hand, the Panthers played on the road last week. They're now playing the second leg of a 3-game road trip and they've got a divisional game on deck. I'll gladly grab the points. However, I expect the Colts to be the "hungrier" team and for to lead to an outright victory. *10 Best Bet

Reason: I'm playing on NOTRE DAME. I successfully played against Stanford last week. The Cardinal were -17 point favorites vs. Cal and they won by only three points. One of the reasons that I played against the Cardinal was that I felt they weren't fully "recovered" from their loss to Oregon. While they'd surely like a convincing win here, I still don't think that they've got the Oregon loss out of their heads. Either way, this is a very talented Notre Dame team, one which expects to leave here with a victory. Since dropping a pair of games they easily could have won to start the season, The Irish have won eight of nine, including four straight. They did lose running back Jonas Gray last week. However, they still have another very capable back in Cierre Wood. Indeed, Wood already has more than 1000 rushing yards, including 94 last week. Meanwhile, Michael Floyd is among the best receivers around. He's already topped the 1000 yard mark in receiving, after also doing so last season. In his three games against Stanford, he's got 19 receptions for 310 yards and three TDs. Admittedly, the Irish didn't play well against USC - and they lost that one by 14. Beating Stanford, a team which defeated USC, would go along way in redeeming that loss though - and I expect the Irish to be extremely motivated to do just that. Added motivation comes from the fact that the Cardinal have defeated them the past two seasons. Keep in mind that ND's other two losses both came by four or fewer points. The Irish didn't cover vs. Stanford last season. That was the only time that they failed to get the cash the past nine times that they were "getting points" though, as we find them at 8-1 ATS their last nine as underdogs, dating back to before Christmas of 2008. I expect them to improve on those stats here and won't be at all surprised by an outright win. *10 main event

Reason: I'm playing on SOUTH CAROLINA. Clemson is already set to play in the ACC title game. However, the Tigers have lost two of three, turning the ball over a whopping 11 times in the process. Last week, they lost 37-13 against NC State. Even Clemson coach Dabo Swinney noted this of the Tigers' last three games: "We're lucky we hadn't lost all three." While the Tigers have a "bigger" game on deck, this one is huge for South Carolina. The Gamecocks have a chance to get to 10 wins, which would match the best mark in school history. As coach Spurrier noted: "If you're not in the conference championship game, this becomes the biggest game of the year for us." The Gamecocks offense finally got back on track last time out - albeit against a lesser opponent. Meanwhile, the defense has been among the best in the country all year. The South Carolina defense ranks fifth in the FBS in total defense (279.5 yards per game) and second against the pass (137.5). Spurrier said this of the big offensive performance: "Might have been the best offensive game since I've been here..." The Gamecocks are 3-1 ATS their last four against the ACC and have won 11 of their last 13 non-conference games. They crushed Clemson 29-7 last season and 34-17 the previous year. I expect "more of the same" on Saturday. *10 Personal Favorite

Reason: I'm playing on KENTUCKY. On paper, the Volunteers have more to play for. With an exciting and controversial win over Vanderbilt last week, this game matters for them. The Wildcats, on the other hand, are playing out the string. That doesn't mean that they don't want to close out their season with a win though, while doing some "spoiling" at the same time. While Kentucky is off back to back losses, both those came on the road. They certainly haven't quit either. Last week, the Wildcats lost by only nine, at Georgia. In their last home game, the Wildcats crushed Ole Miss by a score of 30-13. Note that Kentucky is a profitable 6-2 ATS the last eight times it was off back to back SU losses. While the competition has admittedly been very tough, the Vols are winless on the road. Every road game has resulted in a double-digit loss and they've been outscored by an average of 39.7 to 12 in those games. Yet, now they're laying a TD (maybe more at some shops) on the road. I don't believe there's a large gap in talent between these teams. Therefore, I feel the line is very generous and I'm grabbing all the points I can get. *10 Best Bet

Reason: I'm playing on CENTRAL FLORIDA. Both teams have had disappointing seasons and both enter this game, the last for each, off a loss. The Knights have been playing much better football though. Stepping down in class and playing at home, I expect them to close out their season with a convincing victory. The Knights' last three games have come against a good Tulsa team and the other two were on the road, including one against a fairly good Southern Miss. team. While they did lose all three of those games, ALL three losses came by a touchdown or less, including a 1 point loss at Southern Miss and a 7-pt loss vs. Tulsa. By comparison, those same two teams (Tulsa and Southern Miss) defeated UTEP by a combined margin of 88-41 AND the Miners got to face them both at UTEP to boot. UTEP is actually still in contention for a 6-win season which would make it bowl eligible. That doesn't mean the Miners want this game any more than the Knights though, as UCF is determined to go out on a high note. Coach O'Leary had this to say: "It's been a very frustrating season. We've lost six games by a total of 31 points. That's one possession or one defensive stop really. I think our players have played really hard, but we have tried to build our program on not making mistakes, no penalties and not beating yourself, and we really haven't gotten that accomplished this season." Remember, O'Leary's team had 11 wins last year and this is the most successful senior class in school history. They DO NOT want to go out on a losing note. Senior tight end Adam Nissley noted: "As a senior it just means going out on the highest note possible. Being able to go out with a win would be the next best thing without being able to go to a bowl." While he's expected to start, UTEP has a banged-up starting QB. The Miners are also without arguably the best player in their secondary, as senior safety TraVaun Nixon, who leads the team in interceptions, injured his knee last week. The Knights are 16-9 ATS the last 25 times that they were favored and that includes a perfect 3-0 ATS mark the last three times that they were listed as home favorites in the -7.5 to -10 range. I expect them to deliver a highly motivated effort, going out on top and ending the Miners' bowl dreams with a double-digit win. *10 Personal Favorite

Reason: I'm playing on BALTIMORE. Give the 49ers credit. Its not easy to get to nine wins in the NFL, let alone to do it by Thanksgiving. That said, I don't believe that they're a "legit" 9-1 team. Nor do I believe that they're even as good as the 7-3 Ravens. Particularly not here at Baltimore, where the Ravens are a perfect 5-0. While the Ravens have to play the Steelers twice - they already beat them both times, including a 35-7 beatdown here at Baltimore - the 49ers have a trio of lightweights in their division. The Rams, Seahawks and Cardinals are currently a combined 9-21. I feel this will be by far the 49ers toughest game yet. Looking at their road games shows that they squeaked past the likes of Cincy, Philly, Washington and Detroit. None of those four teams has proven to be all that good though. At least not as good as they may have appeared at one time and/or as they were expected to be coming into the season. And, a closer look shows that despite being 4-0 in those games, the 49ers have actually been outgained yardage-wise, when playing away from San Francisco. Meanwhile, Baltimore is "battle-tested" against other quality teams. In addition to the two victories over the Steelers, the Ravens have beaten the likes of the Jets and the Texans, each of those victories coming by greater than two touchdowns. Of course, they've also been a top team for several years now, while that cannot be said of the 49ers. Indeed, the 49ers are still just 7-13 SU their last 20 road games while the Ravens are a commanding 18-3 SU their last 21 at home. Not only are the Ravens a better team (in my opinion) AND playing at home, but they've also got a big scheduling advantage. Keep in mind that the Ravens played right here last Sunday, an early game (31-24) victory over the Bengals. Meanwhile, just as the Ravens were wrapping up that game, the 49ers were getting started playing theirs - and that was way out on the West Coast. So, already playing on a very short-week, the 49ers have had had to travel clear across the country - to play at one of the toughest venues in the entire league. While Jim Harbaugh has made quite the splash, I expect brother John to get the better of him here, with the Ravens covering the small number along the way. *10 Roast

Reason: I'm playing on TEXAS. The Aggies are a talented team and they enter this game off a convincing 61-7 victory. That being the case and with the Longhorns off back to back losses, we're getting a very generous line with the underdog. I feel that big line is providing us with excellent value. Yes, the Aggies are off the big win. However, keep in mind that victory came against a terrible Kansas team, one which Texas also crushed. (The Longhorns beat Kansas 41-0). So, that victory arguably wasn't as impressive as it sounds. Prior to that, the Aggies had been 0-4 ATS their previous four games, losing the previous three outright. They're still an ugly 3-8 ATS on the season. Going back further finds the Aggies are a money-burning 1-5 ATS the last six times that they were listed as home favorites in the -7.5 to -10 range. The Longhorns have gone 2-1 ATS on the road. They won by 10 their last trip here and they're also 13-6 SU the last 19 times that they were off back to back losses. The Aggies are just 3-8 their last 11 Kyle Field finales, including 1-4 vs. Texas. Five of the Aggies' last nine games have been decided by a touchdown or less. Speaking of close games, last year's meeting was decided by a touchdown, a 24-17 victory for the Aggies. I feel this one could well be close the entire way and am grabbing all the points that I can get. *10 Main Event