Sports Picks & Predictions

Reason: I'm playing on MIAMI OHIO. This line climbed above a touchdown since it opened and I feel that provides us plenty of value with the underdog. No question, the RedHawks have had a disappointing season. This is still a talented and capable team though. Remember, they went from going 1-11 in 2009 to 10-4 and winning a bowl game in 2010. While this year's team got a new coach, it also returned 17 starters. That means that they've had experience winning and having a 1st-year coach here should also ensure they go all out to close out the season with a victory, building some positives for next year. Also, note that these teams had a big and heavily hyped game at Miami last season. The RedHawks were embarrassed by their "instate rival" in that one - their final loss of the season - and that should provide them with some added motivation here. On the other hand, Ohio has already clinched a spot in the MAC Title game. While the Bobcats would surely like to win big, unlike the RedHawks, they've got a bigger and far more important game on deck. Both teams have shown a tendency to play close games. Ohio won by one point last time out and has now seen six of its last eight games decided by eight or fewer points. Meanwhile, Miami Ohio is off back to back games which were decided by a field goal and has now seen four of its last seven decided by a touchdown or less. I feel this one could well be close too and am grabbing all the points I can get. *10

Reason: I'm playing on SAN DIEGO. The Chargers aren't getting much respect these days, while the Bears are getting plenty. That makes sense as Chicago is 6-3 while the Chargers are only 4-5. This is still a very talented San Diego team though, one which is still very much alive in its division. In fact, the Chargers have a far greater shot at winning their division than the Bears do! That said, the Chargers desperately need this one. They also have a lot to prove. I expect them to come ready to play. While they are normally better here at Chicago, this hasn't been one of the Bears' best roles recently. In fact, they're 0-3 ATS the last three times that they were listed as home favorites in the -3.5 to -7 range. During that stretch, the Bears are also a dismal 7-13 ATS when playing a game with an O/U line in the 42.5 to 49 range. Even with the recent losses, the Chargers are still 8-2 the last 10 times that they played in November. The Chargers have seen seven straight games decided by 10 or fewer points, incl. two that were decided by a field goal. With the Chargers "desperate" for a victory, I expect them to give the Bears all they can handle and am grabbing all the points that I can get. *10 Best Bet

Reason: I'm playing on CLEVELAND. Its certainly been a disappointing season for the Browns. A win here won't change that. However, it will help temporarily ease some of the pain. I expect the Browns to be the "more motivated" team here and for that to lead to a win and cover. Yes, last week's loss was a difficult one, lets keep in mind that the Browns were in position to win - they would have won if not for a missed 22-yard field goal. They had a solid edge in total yards and time of possession and QB McCoy was 20 of 27 without throwing an interception. After Sunday's tough 1-point loss here, the Browns are now 2-3 at home. Not great by any means; but at least they have won here and know they can do so. The Browns also know that four of their final six games come on the road and that their remaining two games here come against Baltimore and Pittsburgh, both better teams than the Jacksonville team that they'll face here. In other words, in theory, this should be the "easiest" game remaining on their schedule, as they'll be underdogs in every game the rest of the way. Note that even with last week's loss, the Browns are 9-7 ATS the last 16 times that they were off two or more consecutive losses. Not many bettors have given the Jaguars much respect this season. However, I've successfully backed them a couple of times, winning with them when they beat both Baltimore and Tennessee. I felt those were both favorable spots for the Jaguars though and in each case, the Jags were playing at home. Perhaps more importantly, in both cases, the games actually mattered. The game vs the Titans came in Week 1 (when every team still has hope) and was the home opener, so the Jags really wanted that one. The game vs. Baltimore came on National TV and they were off five straight losses, so they also really wanted that one. It may be harder for them to "get up" for this one though. Even with last Sunday's win over the Colts, (still a hated division rival even without Peyton Manning at QB) the Jags know they essentially have no chance of making the playoffs. Now, they're playing a non-divisional opponent who they have no "rivalry" with. They're also playing their third straight on the road. With a divisional showdown vs. Houston on deck, followed by a Sunday Night game vs. San Diego, it may be tough to focus on the "lowly" Browns. Even with last week's victory, note the Jags are still 1-4 on the road, the lone win coming vs an 0-9 team. They're 6-15 on the road the past few seasons. These teams faced each other each of the past two seasons. In each case, the home team won and covered. Last season, playing at Jacksonville, the Jags won 24-20, as -3 point favorites. However, the previous season, when these teams faced each other here at Cleveland, the Browns won by six (23-17) as -2 point favorites. Playing in front of the home fans, I expect a "hungry" Browns team to bounce back and get it done. *10 Personal Favorite

Reason: I'm playing on CALIFORNIA. I've had plenty of recent success picking my spots to go "on" and "against" Cal. (Most recently, I won with the Bears when they beat up on Utah while winning against them when they got hammered by UCLA.) I feel this will prove to be an excellent "play ON" spot. As you surely know, Stanford lost its first game last week. Playing their biggest game of the season, the Cardinal got hammered by the Oregon Ducks. As they were actually starting to believe that they could run the table, last week's loss figures to be hard to immediately bounce back from. Indeed, many bettors tend to expect highly ranked teams to bounce back huge off their first loss. However, when that first loss comes late in the season, I've often found the opposite to be true. You may recall that I successfully played against the Badgers a few weeks ago, when they were off their first loss. Instead of bouncing back from their loss at Michigan State, as many expected, the Badgers lost again. This week, the Cardinal are not only being asked to bounce back with a victory, they're being asked to bounce back and win by nearly three touchdowns. Against a solid Cal team off back to back double-digit wins, I feel that's asking too much. Note that Stanford is just 1-3 ATS the last four times that it was coming off a conference loss. Off that crushing defeat (and with Notre Dame) on deck, this game surely can't seem that exciting. Note that Stanford coach David Shaw said TE Zach Ertz is unlikely to play against Cal. Also, WR Chris Owusu is out. Remember, Luck had already lost most of his weapons from last year's team. As noted, the Bears are off back to back big wins. They've now held three of their past four opponents to 10 points or less. It should also be noted that the Bears have had this game circled since Stanford destroyed them in front of their home fans last season. Cal did win outright here the previous season though - a 34-28 victory as a +7 point underdog. The Bears are a highly profitable 21-10 ATS the last 31 times that they were +10.5 to +21 point underdogs. A win here would really make their season and I look for them to go all out to try and get it. *10 Best Bet

Reason: I'm playing on TEXAS. The Wildcats are off a win over a good team and boast an impressive 8-2 record. Yet, I feel the 6-3 Longhorns are favored for good reason. Off last week's loss at Missouri and with a pair of tough road games on deck to close out the season, the Longhorns know that they need to take care of business here. While they did lose last year, note that the Longhorns remain an impressive 16-2 their last 18 home finales. The Longhorns also feel they have a score to settle as the Wildcats embarrassed them 39-14 at Manhattan last year and have beaten them three straight times. With K-State off an emotional 4-Overtime victory, the Longhorns are catching the Wildcats at the right time. While K-State may have the better overall record, the Longhorns have been arguably more impressive at home than the Wildcats have on the road. Texas is outgaining opponents by a 470 to 267 margin at home, outscoring them 34.4 to 16.6 here. On the other hand, K-State is actually being outgained on the road, giving up a whopping 463 yards per road game, averaging 427.5 themselves. While they've really struggled in underdog role, the Longhorns have quietly gone an impressive 6-1 ATS (7-0 SU) the last seven times that they were laying points, including 4-0 ATS the last four. Catching an "emotionally and physically drained" Wildcat team, I expect the Longhorns and their superior defense to improve on those stats in convincing fashion. *10 Personal Favorite

Reason: I'm playing on OHIO STATE. I played on Penn State last week. Even if there hadn't been "the scandal," there's a good chance that I would have backed the Nittany Lions in that one. However, I actually liked the Nittany Lions more after the scandal. For starters, the line went up, at or above a field goal. Playing at home, I felt that was offering excellent value. Secondly, I really felt that the players would rise up and elevate their level of play, showing that Penn State was bigger than the disgusting and tragic events which the school was being associated with. While they fell behind early, the Nittany Lions did indeed come ready to play. They ended up losing by three, either a win or push, depending on when and where one played. That was a home game though - a game where they really left it all on the field. While I felt that the Nittany Lions would be able to channel their emotions for a single game, I now feel that it will be much tougher to do it in back to back weeks, let alone at a hostile venue like Ohio State. Last week, they had the full support of the home fans and were running on emotion. This week, neither will be there to help them. I expect the exhausting events to take a toll. Don't expect the Buckeyes to have any sympathy though. Not when they're coming off a disappointing loss of their own! Ohio State is 4-0 ATS the last four times it was off a conference loss and 16-5 ATS its last 21 home lined games. The Buckeyes won their last game here by double-digits (and upset Wisconsin here before that) and I expect another convincing win this afternoon. *10 Big Easy

Reason: I'm playing on ILLINOIS. I wasn't surprised that the Badgers lost at Michigan State or that they followed it up with a loss at Ohio State. After all, that first loss killed their hopes of an undefeated season. It also hasn't been surprising that the Badgers have responded with back to back big wins. After all, those games came against weak opponents, Purdue and Minnesota. I expect them to have their hands full this afternoon though. While they can't go undefeated, the Badgers are still in the hunt for the Big Ten "Leaders" Division title. They know they're currently a game back of Penn State though and also know that they face those same Nittany Lions next week. Obviously, that's a huge game - and I feel it may be easy to get caught looking past Illinois. That could well prove costly though. The Illini have struggled lately and are admittedly dealing with some adversity. They're without a starting linebacker and their coach is on the "hot seat." As coach Zook noted, however, "When you've got problems, that's when you find out what kind of people you are and what kind of person you are and you've just got to keep on keeping on and work through it..." I expect the Illini to "dig deep" in this one. Note that the teams haven't played for a few years but have a history of playing "close" games. The most recent, at Wisconsin in 2008, was decided by 10 points. The most recent here at Champaign (2007) saw Illinois win by five. Speaking of "close games," the Illini have seen their last two home finales decided by a combined five points. The Illini are 3-1 ATS the last four times that they were listed as underdogs in the +10.5 to +21 range and that includes a 1-0 ATS mark as a home underdog in the +14.5 to +17 range. Looking to salvage their season and possibly their coach's job, I expect the Illini to improve on those stats here. *10

Reason: I'm playing on NORTH CAROLINA. Admittedly, the Tar Heels have been a bit inconsistent. That being the case, many bettors are wary to back them. Combine that with the fact that UNC is off an "ugly" loss while V-Tech is off a convincing win and we're getting a very large line to work with. I believe it will prove to be too high. I didn't play on the Tar Heels in their last game. That was a good thing, as they "failed to show up," losing 12-0 at NC State. That was an "instate rivalry" game though and those can tend to have a different feel to them, particularly that one. The Wolfpack wanted it more and played harder. That was the 5th straight time that NC State has beaten UNC though, as that's arguably the most important game to the Wolfpack's fan base. That doesn't seem to be the case for the Tar Heels. However, it should be noted that they've fared well, after losing to the Wolfpack in previous seasons. Last year, they followed up their loss to NC State by winning on the road, at Duke. The previous season, their loss to NC State came in the final game of the regular season. In 2008, the Heels followed up their loss to the Wolfpack with an 8-point victory, as a -7.5 point favorite. the previous season, after losing at NC State, the Heels covered the spread at Georgia Tech, losing by only two (27-25) as a +9.5 point favorite. In other words, just because the Tar Heels stunk against the Wolfpack, it doesn't necessarily mean that they'll do it again. If anything, losing to their "rival" seems to have a motivating effect. In this case, the Heels have also had plenty of extra preparation time, as that game came by on 11/5. Note that UNC is 7-4 SU the last 11 times it was off a conference loss, including a 2-1 SU/ATS mark in that situation this season. Some of you will recall that we backed this same UNC team the game before NC State and the Heels rewarded us by crushing Wake Forest. Also, note that two of UNC's conference losses came by a touchdown or less. The Heels lost by six vs. Miami and by seven at Georgia Tech. The Hokies are off an 11-point win at Georgia Tech but they're no strangers to playing close conference games either. They beat Miami by three and Duke by four. They're still just 2-5 ATS their last seven. While the Hokies are 0-4 ATS the last four times that they were favored in the -10.5 to -21 range, the Tar Heels are 2-0 ATS the last two times that they were underdogs in the +10.5 to +21 range. The Heels won outright here last visit, 20-17 when listed as a +14.5 point underdog. I expect another close one tonight. *10 Best Bet

Reason: I'm playing on BOWLING GREEN. The Bobcats are on a nice roll. However, they're playing on a short week here while also playing back to back road games for the first and only time this season. On the other hand, Bowling Green is well-rested and "desperate." While the Bobcats played on 11/10, the Falcons last played on 11/8. Ohio is still looking to wrap up the MAC East but Bowling Green figures to be even more hungry as they need to win this game AND win their final one (winnable road game at Buffalo) to get to six wins. While they were blown out by one of the best teams in the MAC West (NIU) last time out, the Falcons have beaten Temple and Miami Ohio, two of the better teams in the MAC East. While Bowling Green is only 2-3 at home, last week's loss to NIU was the only home defeat which came by more than a touchdown. The other losses here came by seven points and one point. They're still outscoring opponents by a 26.6 to 24.8 margin here. Despite the sub-500 record, the Falcons have really shown improvement from last year (when they finished just 2-10) and are a much stronger team than the one that was a +8 or +9 point underdog at Ohio last year. Yet, now they're playing a "must win" game, have the schedule in their favor AND are playing their home finale, yet we're getting nearly as many points to work with. While they've dropped two in a row, note that the Falcons are already 2-0 ATS this season, after having lost two or more consecutive games. Ohio is certainly a good MAC team and won't be easy to beat. That said, playing their final home game of the season, I expect the Falcons to go all out, improving on those stats with at least another cover. *10 Best Bet

Reason: I'm playing on DALLAS. I'm afraid that I still don't believe in the Bills. Last week's 27-11 home loss to the Jets did little to change my opinion of them. Note that Buffalo is only 2-6 SU/ATS the last eight times that it was coming off a divisional loss. In fact, the Bills are just 3-9 SU/ATS the last dozen times that they were off a divisional game - as those games seemingly take a real toll on them. This is a very big game for both teams, as both are fighting to try and get to the top of their division. At 5-3, the Bills are in a 3-way tie with the Jets and Pats, who face each other Sunday Night. Despite being 4-4, the Cowboys are a more legit playoff team though, in my opinion. That said, they also know they can ill afford to fall below .500 and risk potentially falling three games behind the Giants. They didn't cover (as the line was very high) but the Cowboys are off a 10-point win vs. Seattle. They've now won seven of their last 10 November games. They're 3-1 at home. The Bills are 1-2 in true road games. While there will be a lot of talk about the Dallas offense missing receiver Myles Austin, note that the Cowboys' defense should get a boost in this one; leading tackler Sean Lee is expected to return after missing the last game and a half with a wrist injury. With an O/U line in the high 40s, this is expected to be a fairly high-scoring game. That should suit the Cowboys just fine. They're 8-3 SU/ATS the last 11 times that they played a home game with an O/U line in the 45.5 to 49 range. I expect them to improve on those stats here and feel that a line of less than a touchdown with the Cowboys is providing us with excellent value. *10 Personal Fav

Reason: I'm playing on DUKE. I feel that these teams are far more evenly matched than the pointspread indicates. Therefore, I feel that getting "double-digits" with the "dog" is very attractive. I won with Duke in this matchup last season. The pointspread was close to a "pick'em" and Duke won by a score of 55-48. Granted, that game was at Duke and this one is at Virginia. Also, this is an improved Virginia team. However, I feel that the same can be said of Duke. Keep in mind that this is now David Cutcliffe's fourth year with the Blue Devils and that with 14 returning starters, this was considered to be his best team since being here. While Duke has lost four straight, keep in mind that two of those losses (vs V-Tech and Wake Forest) came by four points or less. Both those resulted in pointspread victories and have the Blue Devils at a profitable 5-2 ATS their last seven. The Blue Devils have actually won two of their three road games this season, including a victory at Boston College. They're now 8-5-1 ATS their last 14 in the road. As for the recent losses, note that Duke remains a lucrative 7-4 ATS the past few seasons, when off back to back SU losses. On the other hand, during the same stretch, Virginia is only 1-4 ATS when off back to back SU victories. Note that the Cavs lost 28-14 (to NC State) in their most recent home game. In fact, they're just 2-3 ATS at home this season. Their two home wins against 1-A teams came by only four combined points. Looking at the last meeting here and we find that Virginia was a -7.5 point favorite but that Duke won outright, 28-17. The Blue Devils are 11-4 ATS their last 15 against teams with a winning record. They've had Virginia's number the past couple of seasons and I look for them to give their hosts all they can handle once again. *10 Best Bet

Reason: I'm playing on AIR FORCE. Just looking at the records of these teams, many might wonder why Air Force is such a big favorite. After all, the Falcons are only 5-4 while Wyoming is 5-3. However, I feel the Falcons are favored for good reason. In fact, I expect them to win this one quite comfortably. Lets take a closer look. As is often the case, records can be deceiving. To its credit, Wyoming did beat an "ok" San Diego State team, one which beat Air Force. That was by far the Cowboys' most impressive victory though. Their other wins came against 1-AA teams Weber State and Texas State University. The other two wins came against Bowling Green and UNLV, both bad teams with losing records. Keep in mind that the Cowboys also lost 63-19 vs. Utah State. Last week, they fought hard vs. TCU but came up short. That loss figures to be tough to bounce back from, as they really "left it all on the field." Granted, the Falcons don't boast many victories over big name or good teams either. They have at least beaten both Navy and Army though. Having also played Boise State tough (11 point loss as +30 point favorite) on the blue turf, the Falcons have shown they can play with anyone. More importantly, for this particular case, they've also demonstrated that they can blow teams out, in the recent 42-0 destruction of New Mexico. The Falcons won by "only" six at Wyoming last season. However, a closer look reveals that they had a 27-12 edge in first downs in that game and had massive statistical edges across the board. They dominated that game, after falling behind early. The Falcons also shutout the Cowboys the last game here. While the Falcons are off a big (won 24-0!) second half, the Cowboys are off a bad (outscored 14-3) one - I feel that'll prove significant here, from a momentum standpoint. The Falcons have won six of seven November games the past couple of seasons. I expect them to improve on those stats in convincing fashion, earning the cover along the way. *10 Personal Favorite

Reason: I'm playing on PENN STATE. How will the Nittany Lions react to the Paterno scandal/firing? While nobody will know for sure, until the game is actually played. However, my hunch is that they come ready to play. Regardless of how they may feel about Paterno (most still love him but are probably pretty confused) this is a team, school and community that feels the whole world is against them. This is their chance to stand up and show that Penn State is bigger than all that and that they (the players) had nothing to do with any of the alleged atrocities. All that nastiness aside, this is a big football game between a pair of top programs. The Nittany Lions are 5-0 in conference play, coming off a bye, playing at home and have won seven straight games. Meanwhile, the Huskers lost outright (at -17.5 point favorites!) vs. Northwestern, AT Nebraska, last week. (Penn State won by double-digits AT Northwestern!) Yet, the Huskers are favored and because of the scandal, the line has climbed even higher. I feel that's giving us excellent value. With last week's loss, the Huskers are only 3-6 ATS in November the past few seasons. They're also 3-4 ATS, when off a conference loss, during that span. The Nittany Lions are 3-1 ATS (4-0 SU) the last four times that they played a home game with an O/U line ranging between 42.5 and 45. I expect them to band together as a team and to go all out, earning at least another cover. *10

Reason: I'm playing on CENTRAL MICHIGAN. I won with Ohio last week, so I certainly respect the Bobcats. That said, I feel they're over-valued this week. The win over Temple was an emotional one. Facing a "lesser opponent" it may be easy for the Bobcats to suffer a slight "letdown" here. Either way, the win over Temple has caused this line to be a bit higher than it would have been otherwise. Therefore, its worth noting that the Bobcats are a poor 4-6 ATS the last 10 times that they were listed as road favorites in the -3.5 to -7 range. During the same stretch, the Chippewas were 4-2-1 ATS as home underdogs in the +3.5 to +7 range. True, the Chippewas have only three wins on the season, go to along with an admittedly very poor pointspread record. That said, their schedule has hardly been favorable. Indeed, seven of their last nine games have come on the road, including three straight. A closer look at the results shows that the Chippewas have actually been extremely competitive, dating back to the beginning of October. On 10/1, they won outright vs. Northern Illinois. (The Huskies won 45-14 Tuesday night, improving to 5-1 in MAC play. The Chippewas are the only MAC team that has beaten them.) Dating back to the win over the Huskies, ALL five of Central Michigan's conference games have been decided by seven or fewer points. The last three have ALL been decided by a total of just eight points. They had scores of 24-21, 23-22 (a win) and 24-21. I won with underdog Ohio the last time that these teams met. That was back in the 2009 Mac Championship game, played at Ford Field. Central Michigan was a -13.5 point favorite in that one but won by "only" 10. I look for the underdog to get the cash as this one again proves closer than many will be expecting. *10

Reason: I'm playing on WESTERN MICHIGAN. With such a high pointspread, its natural to assume that there's a large talent gap between these teams. With all due respect to Toledo, I don't believe that's the case. Rather, I feel that the Broncos are currently very under-valued and feel that they're capable of giving Toledo everything it can handle. The Broncos are off a bye last week, giving them extra prep. Prior to that, they defeated Ball State by double-digits. They've got five wins on the season and obviously really want a sixth. The Broncos may only be 5-4 but they've had to face three BCS schools, all of them on the road. They lost 34-10 at Michigan to start the season. However, a closer look reveals that they actually limited the Wolverines to 288 total yards of offense. So, the 34 points allowed was a little misleading - although that game was shortened due to lightning. In fact, both teams had exactly 17 first downs, the total yardage was 288-279 and the Broncos had a significant edge in time of possession. So, if not for two defensive TDs by Michigan, that game was actually very close. The Broncos other two games vs. BCS schools saw them win outright at Connecticut, where the Huskies are usually tough AND saw them lose by just three at Illinois. So, this is a team which has proven to be capable of playing tough against top tier opponents, even when facing them on the road. Looking at those three road games vs. BCS foes and we find that the Broncos were underdogs of +3, +13.5 and +14 points. Now, facing a team from the MAC, one which is off a heart-braking loss and which is just 5-4 overall, the Broncos find themselves as double-digit underdogs. Considering that they were only +1.5 at Northern Illinois, the team which just defeated Toledo and which is currently on top (tied with Toledo) of the MAC, I feel this much bigger line is providing excellent value. As noted, Toledo is off a "heartbreaker." I had the 'over,' so was thrilled to seem them score so many points. However, scoring 60 and still losing (they gave up 63!) figures to be rather disheartening. The Broncos have had this game circled since last season. That's because Toledo upset them (WMI was -3.5) at Western Michigan last season. Note that Western Michigan had a whopping 416-268 edge in total yards in that game, to go along with a 24-11 advantage in first downs. In other words, that game could have easily had a different result. The last meeting here at Toledo came in 2009. The Rockets were laying -7.5 for that one. Yet, Western Michigan jumped out to a 41-12 first half lead and cruised to a 58-26 victory. In fact, after years of struggling here, Western Michigan has now won two in row at Toledo. I'll gladly grab the generous points but another outright win won't surprise. *10 Best Bet

Reason: I'm playing on SAN DIEGO. Everyone is pretty down on Phillip Rivers and the Chargers right now, particularly after last week's loss vs. the Chiefs. I feel that they're being a little hard on this team though. Keep in mind that last week's game was their third straight on the road and that it came against a surging division rival which had won three straight and which was "sky high" for a rare Monday night home game. Also, lets not forget that the Chargers had a significant advantage in yards in that game AND that they were in position to win it, if not for a late fumble in the final couple of minutes. Most importantly, let's remember that the Chargers may be 1-3 on the road but that they're a perfect 3-0 out here in San Diego. This week, they should be the team which is "sky high." They've listened to everyone run them through the mud and probably feel they're being unfairly treated. They already lost a game against a marquis team (New England) but that was on the road. Now, they get a chance to host the defending Superbowl champs - the perfect opponent that they can earn some "respect" by beating. True, the Chargers are off a Monday night game. They're 3-1 SU/ATS their last four in that situation though. So, I'm not all that concerned about that part. Really, after that "debacle," the Chargers probably are looking forward to getting back on the field and setting the record straight, ASAP. Also, losing a Monday Night game isn't always a recipe for disaster to following week the way many people tend to believe it is. Looking at the past five Monday night losers, prior to San Diego, we find that those teams went 3-2 SU the following week. The only two losers were Miami and Indianapolis; the only two winless teams in the league. In fact, even those two winless teams played their best after Monday, as they lost by only three and four points, each blowing a double-digit lead in that game. While the Packers are off a bye, with the rule changes, we've seen that isn't necessarily as helpful as it once was. True, the Packers are a great team with a QB who is playing great and who will be motivated to play well in his home state. That doesn't mean that the champs are unbeatable though. I successfully played against the Packers in their last game and the Vikings gave them all they could handle - and that was Christian Ponder's first start. The Chargers were a perfect 8-0 SU in the month of November the past two years and they covered the spread in the last seven of those. Even with the loss at New England, the Chargers are also still 13-6-1 ATS the last 20 times that they were listed as underdogs, including 4-1 ATS their last five in that role. I expect them to bounce back and improve on those stats Sunday afternoon. *10 Main Event

Reason: I'm playing on TENNESSEE. At 5-2, the Bengals enter this game with the better record. They've won four straight and are right there with Buffalo amongst the surprise teams of the league, through the first half. That said, at 4-3, the Titans aren't far behind them. In fact, the Titans have been arguably more impressive than the Bengals and are also arguably in better shape to make the playoffs. Remember, this Tennessee team had a coaching and quarterback change to contend with, during the lockout-shortened offseason. So, it wasn't a big surprise that they lost their opening road game at Jacksonville, a team which the Bengals defeated. At least, not a big surprise to me - as I had a big (10*) play against the Titans that day. However, the Titans have since gone 4-2 and the only two losses were against Houston and at Pittsburgh, a pair of top tier teams with a combined 11-5 record. The Bengals did beat Buffalo but lets not forget that the Bills were in a tough spot (off upset of the Pats) that day, so that wasn't that surprising either. Again, at least not to me, as I had a big (10*) play on Cincy that day. The Bengals other wins all came against teams which are currently below .500 though, as they beat the likes of Seattle, Indianapolis, Jacksonville and Cleveland. Those teams are currently a combined 7-23. They also lost vs. Denver, a team that is 1-5 against everyone else and which ranks among the weaker teams in the league. Besides Jacksonville, the other two common opponents which these teams faced were the Broncos, Colts and Browns. The Titans beat the Broncos and hammered the Colts and Browns by 18 and 17 points. Meanwhile, the Bengals lost vs. the Broncos and beat the Colts and Browns by 10 each. My point is that Cincy's 5-2 record is no more impressive to me than Tennessee's 4-3 record. Again, arguably less so. This week, the Titans have the advantage of playing at home and also of playing their third straight game here. They have yet to leave the Eastern Time Zone this season. They also have a road game vs. Carolina on deck - hardly a reason to get caught "looking ahead." On the other than, the Bengals will be playing their second straight road game and last week's game was way out in the Pacific Northwest, at Seattle. Note that the Bengals also have a showdown looming vs. hated Pittsburgh, the defending conference champs and the team which is at the top of their division. So, not only are they in a tough travel spot but they could also easily get caught looking ahead. The Titans are an impressive 31-11 SU and 25-15-2 ATS the last 42 times that they played a home game with an O/U line in the 38.5 to 42 range. During that stretch, they've gone 21-7 SU and 19-7-2 ATS as home favorites of three or fewer points. I expect them to improve on those stats Sunday afternoon. *10 (Personal Favorite.)

Reason: I'm playing on WASHINGTON. While it was a winning weekend overall, I lost with the Redskins last Sunday. That won't stop me from backing them again this Sunday though, as I feel this is a very favorable situation. For starters, the Redskins are back home. They've won two of three games here and the lone loss came by seven points against a talented and "desperate" Eagles team. The Skins' other two games here resulted in SU victories over Arizona and Washington. The Skins are also in one of their best roles, as we find them at 11-6 ATS The last 17 times that they were listed as home underdogs in the +3.5 to +7 range. Note that they're actually a slightly larger underdog here than they were for their games against Philly and the Giants, teams which are arguably more "proven" than the 49ers. Of course, the reason for the line is that the 49ers have been playing well under Harbaugh and are off to a great start to the season. That said, I don't feel that they're ready to be laying more than a field goal on the road. Keep in mind that this is a West-Coast based team which will be playing an "early" game in the Eastern Time Zone here. Also, note that all three of the 49'ers road games have been decided by six or fewer points, each coming right down to the wire. They beat the Bengals by five points (13-8) by scoring a late TD with less than four minutes remaining. They beat the Eagles by a single point and they were losing against the Lions at the 2-minute warning. In other words, as noted, all their road games have been extremely close. Yet, despite playing thousands of miles away from home, now they're being asked to win by more than a field goal. I feel that's asking too much. Despite the recent struggles, the Skins season isn't a complete "write-off" yet. They're still 3-4, which puts them in a 3-way tie with the Eagles and Cowboys in the NFC East. A win here and they're back to .500. And, that's followed by a game against the struggling Dolphins. So, they know if they can win here, they'll still be very much alive. Note that the Skins last lost three in a row late last season, when they lost four in a row. After the 3-game losing streak, they easily covered the spread at Dallas, losing by three (33-30) as a large underdog. The next week, after having lost four in a row, they won outright, as +7 road underdogs. In fact, after the 3-game slide, the Skins covered the spread in all three of their remaining games to close out the season. Shanahan had never been shutout as a coach in the NFL before Sunday. While the Skins are admittedly still dealing with a number of injuries, I expect Shanahan to have his team "fired up" as the Skins bounce back with a much better effort and improve to 8-3-2 ATS the last 13 times that they'd lost two or more in a row. *10 Best Bet

Reason: I'm playing on ALABAMA. As you know, this is a huge game. And that's putting it lightly. Indeed, considering that the SEC has won six straight National titles, the winner of this game will be favored to win the National Championship. Both teams are very good. Both are very well coached. Both have dominated their opponents. That's led to both also having excellent pointspread records. The Tide have the #1 defense in the country but LSU is right behind them at #3. Many bettors will see all those similarities and determine that the teams are very equal. They'll expect that to translate to a close game and will therefore be quick to grab the points with the underdog Tigers. I've always fared very well in these "huge" games between "evenly matched" teams, partly as I don't worry so much about the pointspread. True, the teams may well be evenly matched (later, you'll see I argue I feel Alabama is a little better on both sides of the ball) but that often doesn't translate to a close game on the field. Also, games here are rarely close. The Tide are 25-1 their last 26 here and 21 of those wins came by at least 13 points, 22 of them by at least nine. While I do think LSU is an excellent team, I personally feel Alabama is better on both sides of the ball. The Tide allow a mere 6.9 points per game and just 180.5 yards. They've hosted teams like Arkansas and Tennessee while visiting venues like Florida and Penn State. Yet, no team has scored more than 14 points against them. They're recorded two shutouts. At home, the Tide are allowing only 5.4 points per game and 166 yards. The LSU defense is also very good (11.5 ppg game allowed) but is allowing 70 more yards (251.4) per game than Alabama. On the road, the Tigers are allowing 15.2 points and 325 yards. Both offenses are averaging about the same number of points. LSU averages 39.2. Alabama averages 39.4. However, the Tide are averaging a much better 457.6 (464.2 at home) yards per game, while the Tigers are averaging 372 yards per game, just 345.7 on the road. The Tide are playing with revenge from a loss at LSU last year and Saban's teams have long been "money" in the revenge role. The Tide won by nine against the Tigers here in 2009 and I look for them to come away with another win and cover here. *10 Main Event

Reason: I'm playing on UCLA. Off an embarrassing loss, the Bruins bounced back with a solid win over California last week. That gives them some positive momentum here. Although I'd successfully played against them earlier in the season, I had the Bruins in the game against Cal. At the time, prior to them beating the Bears, I noted that I thought that they were better than we'd seen and that I expected them to show it. After they did just that, apparently Arizona State coach Dennis Erickson agrees. He was quoted as saying: "UCLA has a lot of talent on their football team. They totally dominated that Cal game, which Cal is an awfully good football team. They have a lot of talent. They're good on defense and offense, when they get the ball running." Erickson went on to say: "We're going to have our hands full. Defensively, they run around, they're down four. They've got seven or eight guys that play that have been heavily recruited we tried to recruit some of them ourselves." The Bruins are 4-1 the last five times that they hosted the Sun Devils, including a 23-13 win here in 2009. The Bruins are fighting for a bowl berth here and I look for them to give their guests all they can handle. *10

Reason: I'm playing on PITTSBURGH. I respect both these teams and feel they're fairly evenly matched. That being said, I feel that getting a field goal or more with the home team is providing us with excellent value. At 6-1, the Bearcats come in with the better overall record. That's worked in our favor, helping us in terms of some added line value. However, a closer look at their schedule reveals that none of the Bearcats' six wins have come against an elite team. The Bearcats did win at USF last time out, perhaps their most impressive victory. However, that win came by only three points and the Bearcats gave up more than 400 yards through the air. Additionally, the Bulls enter the weekend with an 0-3 conference record. So, they haven't exactly lived up to expectations. The Bearcats other five victories have come against Austin Peay, Akron, NC State and Miami Ohio. The first three were at home and the Wolfpack was really banged-up when the Bearcats played them. The loss came at Tennessee and the Bearcats lost that one by 22 points. So, while the 6-1 record may sound impressive, the Bearcats have yet to prove they beat a quality team by more than a field goal on the road. While obviously improved this year, let's not completely forget that this Bearcats team went just 4-8 last season. On the other hand, the Panthers returned numerous starters from the team that went 8-5 last season. They also upgraded their coach. They've only got a 4-3 record but one of the losses came by three points vs. Notre Dame and another came by four points on the road at Iowa, a game which they were dominating most of the way. So, they could easily have a better record. Last time out, the Panthers shook off their first 2-game losing streak of the season by crushing UConn by 15 points. I already mentioned that the Bearcats gave up more than 400 yards through the air in their last game. Now, I'll note that the Panthers put up 433 passing yards in their last. While I already noted that Cincy's 3-point win vs. South Florida was perhaps its most impressive, note that the Panthers hammered those same Bulls by a score of 44-17. The Panthers were slight road favorites (won 28-10) at Cincy last season. Now, an arguably better team is getting points at home. I look for Pitt. to pull off the "upset" here, however, in what could well be a close game, (last game here was 45-44) I'll grab the points. *10 Best Bet

Reason: I'm playing on CALIFORNIA. I successfully played against the Bears last Saturday and they got crushed at UCLA. However, I also successfully played on them in their previous game here (their last here in Northern Cal.) and they blew out Utah. Back "home," in one of their best roles and facing a team which they have dominated, I expect the Bears to bounce back with a double-digit win and cover. Both teams badly need this game if they want to give themselves a chance at a bowl. Some might argue that the Cougars need it more as they're just 3-5 with four games remaining. However, I'd argue that they know they are unlikely to make a bowl and don't really believe deep down that they have much of a shot. On the other hand, with four victories and with this home game vs. Washington State and another home game vs. Oregon State on deck, the Bears know they should be able to reach six victories and believe that they will do so. That said, they also know that they close the season with road games at Stanford and at Arizona State. In other words, they absolutely need to take care of business against the Cougars, the worst team in the conference. Note that the Bears have dominated this series with six straight victories. This year's Bears have a more balanced offense than the Cougars to go along with a superior defense. After winning three of their first four, all wins coming against bad teams, the Cougars have come back down to earth with four straight losses. They're off a double-digit loss at Oregon last week and are now playing their final game outside the state of Washington this season. Their last three losses have come by 15, 23 and 30 points. The Cougars are an awful 1-8 ATS the last nine times that they were listed as road underdogs in the +7.5 to +10 range. During the same stretch, the Bears were 7-1 ATS as home favorites int he -7.5 to -10 range. That includes a 15-point victory over Fresno State in that role this season. I expect the Bears to improve on those stats Saturday afternoon, continuing their dominance in this series and taking another step towards becoming bowl eligible. *10 Personal Favorite

Reason: I'm playing on BOSTON COLLEGE. As usual, the Seminoles are a talented team. Also, off three straight double-digit victories, they're really starting to roll. The betting public knows all about these things though and they also know that Boston College has a poor overall record. Naturally, many will be quick to "lay the points" here. As a result, we're getting a very generous line with the home underdog Eagles here. I feel it will prove to be too high. Yes, the Seminoles' three straight blowout victories have been impressive. However, keep in mind that two of them were at home (both against mediocre opponents) and that the lone road game was at Duke. Let's also remember that, before the winning streak, the Seminoles had lost three straight. The Seminoles are still 1-2 on the road for the season and that includes an outright loss at Wake Forest, when they were laying -10 points. Going back further finds them at a mediocre 7-7 SU/ATS their last 14 road games, including an 1-2 SU/ATS mark when playing a road game with an O/U line in the 42.5 to 49 range. Perhaps more importantly, note that the Seminoles are still an ugly 4-7 ATS (5-6 SU) the past 2+ seasons, when off two or more consecutive victories. There is no denying that the Eagles have endured a disappointing season. That said, they're off their best performance of the season, a 28-17 outright win at Maryland. They ran the ball for an awesome 372 yards (on 62 carries) in that game and that type of performance should give them plenty of confidence and momentum here. Additional confidence should be gained by the fact that Boston College has really played well against Florida State in recent years. Last season, listed as a +22.5 point underdog, the Eagles lost by only five points (24-19) and that was at Tallahassee. The previous season, playing here at Boston College, the underdog Eagles won outright, a 28-21 upset win. Note that November has been a very good month for the Eagles the past couple of seasons, as they've won six of seven November games. That included a 4-0 SU (3-1 ATS) record last November and they were underdogs for two of those games. Despite the poor early results, I feel that the Eagles have a talented defense, better than most probably realize. This is their chance to show the world that they're better than their record indicates. I look for an inspired effort and for that to lead to a pointspread victory. *10 Best Bet

Reason: I'm playing on OHIO. Huge game for both teams here. Although both teams are 5-3, admittedly, Temple has accomplished some more impressive results than Ohio. The Owls won big at Maryland and they only lost by four at Penn State. Ohio hasn't done anything of that magnitude. However, that's partly as the Bobcats haven't had the same opportunity to do so. Additionally and perhaps more importantly, those "impressive results" came early on in the season for the Owls. Entering this game, its Ohio which is off a much better performance. With Ohio "getting points" here, note that all three of the Bobcats' losses have come by eight or fewer points and that their last two losses came by one and three points. Last time out, however, the Bobcats shook off those losses and finally put it all together. They went on the road and won by 17, at Akron. Granted, Akron is among the worst teams. However, that still doesn't mean that a double-digit blowout victory doesn't help a team's confidence level. Despite playing on the road, the Bobcats outgained the Zips by a whopping 556-249 margin. On the other hand, Temple stumbled last time out. Facing a weak Bowling Green team, the Owls managed less than 300 yards of total offense and were defeated 13-10. Both teams have since had a "bye," having now played since 10/22. I expect the extra time in between games to favor the team off the big win and with the experienced coach (Frank Solich) over the team off a loss and with a coach (Steve Addazio) in his first year with the team. Lets not forget that Solich's Bobcats went into Temple and beat the Bobcats fairly handily. The Bobcats had a 280-146 advantage in second half yards in that game, pulling away for a 31-23 victory. Including that result, Ohio was 5-1 SU/ATS in November the past two seasons. Going back further finds them at 7-1 SU/ATS their last eight November contests, including a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS their last four November home games. Going back still further finds them at 14-6 ATS their last 20 home November games. This one could well be close, so I'll gladly grab the points. That said, I look for the Bobcats to improve on their impressive November numbers with an outright win. *10 Main Event

Reason: I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. I'm aware that the Eagles are off a bye and that teams haven't fared all that well off a bye so far this season. I'm not taking the Eagles because they're coming off a bye though. (Although it should be noted that the Eagles are 12-0 off a bye under Reid!) Rather, I'm taking the Eagles as they're playing at home and I feel that they've got something to prove. While both teams have their strengths and weaknesses, I feel that the Eagles match up well vs. this Dallas team. Both QBs have certainly had their highs and lows but I'll side with Vick over Romo. While Garrett may well prove to be a "great head coach," until that happens - I'll still give the experienced Reid and the Eagles the coaching edge. I mentioned that I felt that the Eagles have "something to prove." Most of that stems from the fact that they've been underachieving thus far. However, Rob Ryan's "trash-talking" in the summer figures to also provide the Eagles with a source of added "motivation." The Dallas defensive coordinator had this to say of the Eagles in July: "I don't know if we win the all-hype team. I think that might have gone to somebody else, but we're going to beat their ass when we play them." Of course, just winning a home game against a hated division rival should be plenty of motivation, particularly as the Cowboys have beaten them the last two meetings here. I feel that the Eagles are in a good spot. Prior to the bye, they'd finally broken through with a victory. Michael Vick had this to say of the team's morale: "It was just one win. I think if we get the next one, we'll get that confidence. But we definitely feel good about where we are right now. Obviously, there's a lot of work to be done. We're committed to getting that done." With this game having an O/U line in the low 50s, note that the Eagles are a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS the last three times that they played a home game with an O/U line of 49.5 or greater. With their victory over the Redskins, the Eagles are now 13-6 SU and 12-7 ATS the last 19 times that they were favored by four or fewer points. I expect them to improve on those stats Sunday night. *10 Personal Favorite

Reason: I'm playing on PITTSBURGH. As you know, these are both very good teams. The Patriots are 5-1. The Steelers are 5-2. The Pats have won two in a row, failing to cover last time out. The Steelers have won three in a row and covered last time out. The Steelers went to the Superbowl last year but the Patriots remain the favorite of the betting public. As a result, the Pats are favored here, despite this game being played at Pittsburgh. I feel that gives us excellent value with the "underdog" Steelers. Note that the Steelers were laying -4 points when they hosted the Pats last season. While the Pats may have the better overall record, the Steelers' home record is actually better than New England's road record. Pittsburgh lost road games at Baltimore and Houston but is 3-0 at home. Meanwhile, New England is 2-1 on the road. Going back further finds the Pats at 9-9 their last 18 on the road while the Steelers were 16-5 at home, during the same stretch. The Patriots are scoring a whopping 33.3 points and averaging 508.7 yards of offense on the road. They're also giving up 25.7 points and 480 yards of offense though. Opposing teams are averaging 7.4 yards per play against them in their three road games. On the other hand, the Steelers are outscoring opponents by a 26.3 to 10 margin here at home. Opposing teams are averaging a mere 226.3 yards against them here, averaging just 4.1 yards per play against them here. Brady gets all the attention and is clearly among the best of the generation. Rothlisberger is far from a slouch either. He may not look flashy but he continues to get the job done, week after week, season after season. Belichick remains among the best coaches in the game, arguably of this generation. Once again, Tomlin is no slouch either. While Belichick and the Pats are coming off a bye, with the new rules, that extra week may no longer be such an advantage. Either way, note that the Pats are only 0-2-1 ATS the last three times that they were off a bye. While the Pats tend to fare well at this time of the season, the Steelers have been even better. In fact, they're 10-1 SU the last 11 times that they played in weeks 5-9. Going back further finds the Steelers at an outstanding 62-23 (52-30-3 ATS!) the last 115 times that they played in Weeks 5-9. Playing with 'revenge' last season's loss, I expect Big Ben and co. to "grab the cash" once again. *10 Main Event

Reason: I'm playing on WASHINGTON over Buffalo. The Redskins are dealing with a number of injuries and are off back to back losses. That has many counting them out - both for this week's game and also for the season in general. However, lets not forget that the Redskins are still 3-3 and that they're still only one game back off the lead in the NFC East, which is the exact same position that the (4-2) Bills are in over in the AFC East. In fact, with the Patriots and Jets both residing in the AFC East (as compared to the Cowboys, Giants and Eagles in the NFC East) one could make a case that the Skins have a better chance of winning their division than do the Bills - although either happening is unlikely. In other words, the Redskins' season is far from being a "write-off." The Bills, who are listed as the home team here, are undefeated at "home." In fact, in addition to beating Oakland, they've defeated the likes of the Patriots and the Eagles in their games at Buffalo. However, this game is NOT being played at Buffalo. Rather, its being played at Toronto. As Buffalo safety George Wilson noted: "It's not a home game. We're playing an international game that counts as a home game because it's relatively closer to Buffalo. We're ambassadors of the game, trying to globalize the sport. So we understand that. But at the same time, it's certainly not the same environment that we have here in Ralph Wilson Stadium." Wilson went on to say: "...it still has the feel of a road game because we still have to get on the bus and take the 1 1/2-two hour drive up. In previous years we've seen just as many jerseys for the visiting teams as we saw for our team. The fans tend to cheer for any play, whether it's for the other team or our team..." Note that the Bills are 0-3 in the regular season here in Toronto. True, the Bills are off a bye. However, with the new rules, teams off a bye haven't performed well yet this season. Since the Bills won big in their opener, note that all five of Buffalo's games have been decided by seven or fewer points, four of those being decided by a field goal. Not surprisingly, the Bills are 0-2 ATS when laying points. The Skins lost by double-digits (33-20) last time out. However, a closer look reveals that they actually had an edge in total yards in that game. Also, that was the first time that they lost by more than seven points this season. Their other two losses came by an average of 4.5 points. The Skins are 9-5 ATS the last 14 times that they were listed as underdogs in the +3.5 to +9.5 range. During that stretch, they've also gone a profitable 7-2-2 ATS when off two or more consecutive losses. The Skins are 4-1-3 ATS their last eight against teams from the AFC. Desperate to right the ship before its too late, I expect them to improve on those stats on Sunday. *10 Best Bet

Reason: I'm playing on OHIO STATE. With a 6-1 record and a top 15 ranking, the Badgers are a talented and dangerous team. That said, they're also off their first loss of the season. For a team that had dreams of going undefeated and potentially playing for the national title, that can be very tough to bounce back from. That loss was particularly devastating, as the Badgers had battled all the way back from a deficit only to still fall short. Even coach Bielema acknowledged: "This will sting and they will carry this memory with them for the rest of their lives - and it's going to be difficult." At 4-3, its been a disappointing first season for Luke Fickell, as coach of Ohio State. That said, this is still a very proud and talented program. Also, unlike the Badgers - the Buckeyes are coming off a victory in their last game. So, in addition to having homefield advantage, they've also got some positive momentum. Naturally, they'd love to knock off the ranked Badgers, as their season would suddenly start to look a whole lot better, if that were to occur. Fickell had this to say of how last week's victory can help gain some positive momentum: "...this game is a lot more fun when you're winning and this game's a lot more fun when things are going your way a little bit. I know you've got to make those things happen, but that momentum is so huge, that that's what drives you to do this stuff. And those guys maybe haven't had that in a while, so they're excited about it." We know the Badgers defense is better than it showed last week. This is also an improving Ohio State defense though. Last week, they forced three turnovers and limited Illinois to seven points and 285 total yards. Meanwhile, the offense finally saw tailback Dan "Boom" Herron return from his six game suspension. His return paid immediate dividends as he ran for more than 100 yards and scored a touchdown. Lets not forget that Ohio State's lone home loss came vs. Michigan State - the same team that just beat Wisconsin - and that they only lost that one by three points. While most came under Tressel, its still worth noting that the Buckeyes are 15-4 ATS their last 19 here. With the cover at Nebraska, they're also 4-0 ATS the last four times that they were underdogs in the +3.5 to +10 range. Catching the Badgers "thinking about what could have been," I expect them to improve on those stats on Saturday evening. *10 Main Event

Reason: I'm playing on UCLA. I've successfully played against the Bruins this season. I also won with the Bears last week. This week, however, I feel the "value" lies with the underdog Bruins. One of the main reasons Cal was my "Personal Favorite" last Saturday was that the Bears were in a great spot. They were playing on a "long week," as their previous game had come on a Thursday. They were also catching Utah playing back to back road games and having had to travel across the entire country, on a "regular" week. The Bears jumped all over the Utes and cruised to a 34-10 victory. This week, however, the Bears are playing on a "regular" week while facing an opponent which has had some extra preparation - as this time its UCLA which is off a Thursday game. As you may have seen, UCLA got embarrassed (at Arizona) in that Thursday game, much as Cal had the previous Thursday. While that game did result in several suspensions, I also expect it to be have a motivating effect. They weren't happy with their performance and badly want to improve here. Of course, back to back blowout losses against the Bears the last two years should also provide the Bruins with some added "hunger" here. Most importantly, the Bruins desperately need victories if they want to entertain any thoughts of a bowl game. While the Bears won as the "home" team last week, they've long struggled in road favorite role. In fact, they're an awful 12-31-1 ATS the last 44 times that they were laying points on the road, including a 3-10 ATS mark as road favorites in the -3.5 to -10 range. More recently, the Bears are 2-7 ATS the last nine times that they were laying points on the road, including 1-4 ATS as road favorites in the -3.5 to -7 range. This is a critical game for the Bruins, as they need three wins in their final five games to become bowl eligible. Knowing that two of those games are on the road (Utah and USC) and that another home game comes against a solid Arizona State team, make this essentially a "must win." I expect them to bounce back with their best effort, leading to at least a cover. *10

Reason: I'm playing on NORTH CAROLINA. Off back to back losses and with back to back road games on deck, the Tar Heels badly need this one. I expect this talented team to respond with its best effort. The Demon Deacons are solid but far from unbeatable and they tend to struggle against quality opposition. They barely beat Duke (24-23) last week and they were hammered 38-17 the previous week. Earlier in the season, they lost by seven at Syracuse. Their best road win came at Boston College and the Eagles aren't as good as the Tar Heels this year. In fact, they're 0-4 in the ACC and 1-6 overall. While a home win vs. Florida State was impressive, note that the Deacons are an ugly 1-9 SU and 3-7 ATS the last 10 times that they faced a team with a winning record. They're 4-10 SU/ATS their last 14 road lined games overall. After getting dominated their previous game, the Deacons were actually outgained on both the ground and through the air by Duke last week. The Blue Devils also controlled the clock, had a 16-minute edge in time of possession. This will be their first time playing back to back road games this season. The Tar Heels are 3-0 SU the last three times that they were off back to back losses and they figure to be in a nasty mood here. I expect them to improve on those stats Saturday afternoon, picking up the cover along the way. *10

Reason: I'm playing on RICE. Its always a bit "scary" to go against a team like Houston. The Cougars have a record setting QB in Kase Keenum, a top 20 ranking and they're among the highest scoring teams in the country. Off back to back blowout victories, few will dare go against them here. That said, I feel that very sentiment has caused this line to become too high. Consider that last week the Cougars opened at -20.5 and closed at -24 vs. Marshall, a team arguably not as talented as Rice. (Marshall did beat Rice but only by four and that game was at Marshall.) That game was actually the highest line that Houston had see too, with the exception of a game vs. 1-AA Georgia State. Now, they're laying a much bigger number. While some may argue otherwise, with the exception of the opening game vs. UCLA, Rice is arguably as capable as any team that Houston has played. Indeed, the Cougars have played a very soft schedule. True, the Owls are off a disappointing loss - but they're still a team which returned 17 starters from last season, one of the most experienced teams in the country. Speaking of last season's team - the Owls actually beat the Cougars last year. Listed as +9.5 point underdogs, they won outright by a score of 34-31, a result which should give them confidence that they can hang with Houston here. (Although Keenum didn't play.) The Owls have played a tougher schedule than the Cougars, as they've faced the likes of Texas, Baylor, Southern Miss, Purdue and Tulsa. They faced the first three of those on the road, too. Yet, this is by far the biggest line that they've had for one of their games. Note that while they have been blown out a few times, they haven't lost any game by more than 25 points. The Cougars failed to cover in their lone Thursday game this season (7-point win vs Utep) and I look for them to receive a tough test than most will be expecting here. *10

Reason: I'm playing on JACKSONVILLE. It'll be tough for a lot of bettors to go against the Ravens here. After all, Baltimore is among the best teams in the AFC and comes in on a roll. They also recently saw what a "good" team (New Orleans) did to a "bad" team (Indianapolis) last night on primetime - and that result in fresh in their memory. That reluctance to go against the Ravens has helped to create plenty of line value for us though, as we're able to get "double-digits" with the home underdog. While I certainly respect the Ravens, I feel that grabbing all those generous points will prove to be the way to go. Off five straight losses, the Jaguars could obviously use a victory. Remember, at the beginning of the season owner Wayne Weaver essentially told Del Rio he better show some improvement. After this, the Jags play three straight road games, too. So, this is their chance to step up and prove that they're not a bunch of "quitters." Keep in mind that the Jags rallied to get themselves in position to have a shot at winning at Pittsburgh last week, eventually falling 17-13. Including that result, four of the Jags' six games have been decided by 10 or fewer points. Five of their six games have been decided by less than 14. Many of the Jacksonville players still like their head coach and I expect them to play hard for him again tonight. Middle linebacker Paul Posluszny had this to say: "When people say, 'Aw, his job is on the line' and stuff like that, I disagree because Del Rio is doing a great job of preparing us and being the leader of this team. It's the players' fault that we're in this situation to begin with, not the head coach or anybody else. As a player, you want to take the heat off your man because we're the ones that caused it." The Ravens have only played two road games so far this season. They got blown out at Tennessee and they blew out the Rams, at St Louis. The Rams are 0-6 though and have been outscored by a 171-56 margin - so, while the Jags have mostly been competitive, the Ravens weren't the only team to blow out the Rams. They're just 11-11 SU their last 22 road games overall. The Jags were 11-8 SU at home, during the same stretch. While it still likely won't ultimately save Del Rio's job, in an attempt to do so, I expect the Jags to give their best effort tonight and for that to lead to at least a "cover." *10