Sports Picks & Predictions

I am playing on SEATTLE (vs Pittsburgh) as my *10 NFL Blue Marlin on Sunday @ 4:25 PM ET - Even though Seattle has had a pair of home losses this season the home of the "12th Man" is still a tough place for visitors to play. The Seahawks have a 21-4 straight-up record here the last 3 years combined. Seattle is 6-1 ATS when they are a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. The Hawks know how to turn it on at this time of year as they are 7-2 ATS the last three seasons combined in Weeks 10 through 13. Even though Marshawn Lynch is hurt, RB Rawls filled in with huge success last week. The Steelers had a bye last week but they actually have a long-term losing record (15-17 ATS) when off of a bye week. It has proven to not be that big of a edge for Pittsburgh. Also, the Steelers history in Seattle is not good with three straight losses both straight-up and ATS. The Seahawks have the much better defense when comparing these two teams. That combined with Seattle's powerful running game are the keys to victory for the Seahawks here. Seattle has given up 13 points or less in 3 of their last 4 games. Pittsburgh has allowed 20 points or more in 3 of their 4 road games this season. This small line is offering huge line value to a powerful home team that has gotten their season back on track with wins in 3 of their last 4 games. Look for the Seahawks recent surge to continue here.  

I am playing on SAN FRANCISCO (vs Arizona) as my *10 NFL Shocker *Game of the Week* on Sunday @ 4:05 ET - The 49'ers struggled again on the road last week but they have been a different team at home all season. This includes 3 outright upsets as a home dog so far this season for San Francisco. Now the Niners take on a Cardinals team that is off of a big road win at Cincinnati last week. QB Palmer wanted that game badly as he faced his former team so don't discount the fact that this could be a tough one for he and the Cardinals in terms of being a flat spot. This is particularly true because the Cards are in a bit of a lookahead here with a big revenge match-up against the Rams up next. That helps to make this the perfect spot to grab the 49'ers as an under-rated underdog capable of being dangerous for a team in a flat spot. The Cardinals are 27-36 ATS when they enter a game on a streak of two or more consecutive wins. The 49'ers have given up an average of only 15.2 points per game in their five home games this season. Look for this match-up to be a lot closer than what the betting markets are forecasting. The Niners are a great value as a double digit underdog in this spot.

I am playing on SAN DIEGO (vs Jacksonville) as my *10 NFL *Game of the Month* on Sunday @ 1 PM ET - The Jaguars are off of a come from behind win against the Titans last week. Not only that but Jacksonville has now won back to back games for the first time since December of 2013. With that said, I don't foresee the Jags will make it three straight here. Jax will have their hands full with an angry Chargers team. San Diego has not only lost six straight games, they also were thoroughly embarrassed on their home field by the Chiefs last week. That 30 point loss in San Diego means that you can count on a refocused an energized Chargers team hitting the field in Jacksonville on Sunday. Though you wouldn't know it from looking at recent results, these teams are roughly equal across the board except for one area. Looking at yardage production on offense, the Chargers are clearly the better team on offense. That said, the reason for this line has a lot do with recent results and that is what is helping to drive line value toward the underdog Chargers in this one. San Diego is 3-0 ATS the last 3 seasons as a road dog of 3.5 to 7 points. Also, against the AFC South Division, the Chargers have an incredible long-term ATS mark of 24-3. The Jaguars are 1-4 ATS their last five against the AFC West and Jacksonville is also on an ugly 6-11 ATS run in home games. Look for the Chargers to get the upset win here but if they do fall short it should be by a field goal or less. Huge effort from the road dog this week after embarrassment at home last week.

I am playing on CALIFORNIA (vs Arizona State) as THE *10 CFB *GAME OF THE YEAR* on Saturday @ 10 PM ET - Cal is off of a loss at Stanford while Arizona State is off of a huge win over rival Arizona. That sets this up very nicely for a play on the Golden Bears. Cal is 4-1 in home games this season and the four victories have come by an average margin of 31 points per game. The Bears are catching ASU off of a 2nd straight win but the Sun Devils had previously lost three straight games. Arizona State has lost their last two road games by an average margin of 15 points per game and the Bears have been winning big at home all season long. We're getting some line value here because of Cal being off of the loss to Stanford. A key variable there was that the Golden Bears allowed a KR for a TD and Cal settled for three field goals in the red zone. California did outgain the Cardinal by 139 yards and they will pound ASU after the Sun Devils big win last week also made them bowl eligible. This is a definite flat spot for Arizona State and they have gone 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games as an away dog. In looking at these two teams closely, Cal has the better defense and the Bears are off of a superb defensive effort against Stanford last week. The Golden Bears also definitely have the better offense in this match-up. The Sun Devils have averaged just 21 points in their last two road games. Cal is averaging 43.4 points per game in home games this season. This one should be ALL CAL.

I am playing on FRESNO STATE (vs Colorado State) as my *10 Shocker *Game of the Week* Saturday @ 9 PM ET - It's been a tough year for Fresno State but I expect them to bring a strong effort in their final home game of the year. They are hosting a Rams team that is off of a win in their home finale last week and that made CSU bowl eligible. Off of that big home win and now facing a hungry home dog, the value here looks to be with the Bulldogs. Fresno State won 28-7 in the last meeting between these teams. The Bulldogs also have won three straight home finales are on an 8-1 run in home finales. Fresno State got pounded last week at BYU but a lot of that had to do with being off of a big win on the long road trip to Hawaii the prior week. The Bulldogs got 6 TDs in that game but QB Greenlee then struggled last week. Look for Greenlee and Fresno State to bounce right back here. Colorado State is 6-15 ATS in road games with a total between 56.5 and 63 points. Fresno State is 5-2 ATS as a home dog in a range of 7.5 to 10 points and they are the play here as the points are too much for the Rams to be laying on the road especially when you consider the situational and motivational edges here. 

I am playing on USC (vs UCLA) as my *10 CFB Blue Marlin on Saturday @ 3:30 PM ET - UCLA has won and covered in each of the last three meetings between these teams. The Bruins had amassed a double digit lead by halftime in two of those meetings. Needless to say, USC has revenge on their minds here. The winner of this game will clinch the PAC-12 South Division. The Trojans are off of a blowout loss to Oregon last week but was the first time since week 3 of the season that USC was outgained! Also, the Trojans committed 12 penalties for 124 yards. It was an ugly game all the way around and I look for USC to respond in a big way in their rivalry game this week. UCLA is off of a win versus Utah but they were quite fortunate. The Utes, despite scoring only 9 points in the game, did move the ball quite well. Utah had 5 drives of 10 more plays but three resulted in field goals and two were ended on turnovers. This is a back to back road game situation for UCLA and that is a spot in which the Bruins are on a 1-6 ATS run. The Trojans are 17-10 ATS as a home favorite. Factor in the revenge factor and the scheduling edge and the situational edges and you have all the variables working in favor of a blowout home win for the Trojans in this one. 

I am playing on BOISE STATE (@ San Jose State) as my *10 Personal Favorite Friday @ 3:30 ET - Boise State certainly has history on their side in this match-up as the Broncos are 5-0 all-time against San Jose State. Boise State is certainly expected to be fired up here as they have lost back to back home games entering this match-up. This is the first time this has happened to the Broncos in 18 years and I look for Boise State to take out their frustration on a Spartans team that is just 5-6 on the season. San Jose State is off of a win at Hawaii last week so this is certainly a big situational edge for the Broncos. The Spartans are not only off the long trip to Hawaii, they also are on a short week since this game is on a Friday. Look for Boise State to do plenty of damage against San Jose State on the ground in this one. The Spartans have allowed 4 of their last 5 opponents to gain at least 200 yards on the ground. Boise State has the rest edge here as they are off of a Friday game and the Broncos have gone 8-3 ATS when off of a Friday game and they are 29-13 ATS in their last 42 as an away favorite. San Jose State is 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog. Big situational edges for the Broncos and yet the spread is quite reasonable. Lay the points with Boise State in what should be a rout.

I am playing on CHICAGO (@ Green Bay) as my *10 Turkey Day BEST BET on Thursday @ 8:30 PM ET - The Packers are off of a key divisional win at Minnesota but previously had lost 3 straight. The Bears come into this game off of a tight loss but previously had won 2 straight. The value is clearly with the big dog in bounce back mode especially considering that Green Bay got such a big win on the road last week. Chicago got embarrassed on Thanksgiving Day last year and will be looking to atone for that performance here after they wrapped up last season's appearance by allowing a game-ending 31-3 run to the Lions. Though the records may not reflect it (with the Packers at 7-3 and the Bears at 4-6), statistically Chicago has been a little better than Green Bay on each side of the ball. Additionally, Chicago has an edge in pass protection when looking at this match-up. The Bears had covered 5 of their last 6 before last week's tight loss to Denver. The Packers had failed to cover in 4 straight games before getting the cash against the Vikings. Big value to the big dog in this divisional match-up.

I am playing on TEXAS (vs Texas Tech) as my Turkey Day ESPN *ROAST* on Thursday @ 7:30 ET - Texas has dominated this rivalry and I look for more of the same this year. The Longhorns have won 14 of the last 16 meetings between the teams and they've gotten the ATS cover in 11 of those. Of course with the low point spread on this year's game, any victory is likely to lead to the ATS cover as well and that is what I am fully expecting here. The key here is the difference in the defenses. Even though the Longhorns are off of a loss to West Virginia in their most recent game, UT actually outgained the Mountaineers by 60 yards but four turnovers were the difference maker. The Horns are still hanging on to hopes of bowl eligibility but they know to keep those hopes alive they must get the win this week. Texas Tech, like Texas, is off of a bye week but, unlike the Longhorns, the Red Raiders are off of a win against Kansas State. Prior to that victory, Texas Tech had lost three straight and I look for the Longhorns to quickly return the Red Raiders to their losing ways. Texas Tech has given up 44 points or more in 5 of their last 8 games. The Longhorns, before the deceiving final score in their loss at West Virginia, had given up an average of only 17.5 points in their four prior games! Defense wins football games and that will prove to be the case again in this key Big 12 match-up on Thanksgiving Day.

I am playing on DALLAS (vs Carolina) as my *10 Turkey Day Personal Favorite on Thursday @ 4:30 PM ET - The Cowboys are a different team with Tony Romo leading the way. There is no doubt about that. Dallas has gone 16-3 in the last 19 starts Romo has made and he led them to victory against Miami last week. Though Romo had a little rust early in his start against the Dolphins he was able to shake it off and he ended up throwing for 227 yards and two TD's in that game. Also, the Cowboys defense was very impressive against Miami and Dallas has held 3 of their last four opponents to 14 points or less. The Panthers come into this game with a spotless 10-0 record but they've only played one team this season that has a winning record and that was Green Bay. The Packers recent three game losing streaks also shows that the win over The Pack may not even be as impressive as was once thought. The Panthers will have their hands full with a Cowboys team that knows the NFC East is still up for grabs and that seems highly re-energized by Romo's return. The Cowboys were blown out by the Eagles last season on Thanksgiving so they have extra motivation here as well. 

I am playing on PHILADELPHIA (@ Detroit) as my *10 Turkey Day ROAST on Thursday @ 12:30 PM ET - Look for QB Mark Sanchez to be much better in his second start for the Eagles. Certainly the first one was ugly as he was a turnover machine in their embarrassing home loss to the Buccaneers Sunday. The Lions are getting a lot of attention from the betting markets leading up to gameday but Detroit is only 3-7 on the season and that is even with back to back wins in their two games since the bye week. Even though the Lions are 'use to' playing on Thanksgiving Day, familiarity hasn't exactly helped them as they are 3-8 ATS in their 11 games on Turkey Day. Overall, the Lions are on a 3-10 ATS run heading into this game. Despite recent disappointment, the Eagles are still very alive in the NFC East race and the Philly defense will be able to focus on the passing attack of the Lions because Detroit possesses the worst rushing attack in the NFL. 

I am playing on BALL STATE (vs Bowling Green) as my *10 Tuesday BEST BET @ 7 ET - It's been a tough season for Ball State but that doesn't mean the Cardinals won't play with pride and heart in their season finale. This is particularly true because the game is at Ball State. The Cardinals have won 3 straight home finales. They are a huge underdog to the Falcons because Bowling Green has been flying high this season while the Cards have struggled on both sides of the ball. The Falcons are in a 'sandwich spot' here as they are off their huge game against rival Toledo and now have the MAC Title game on deck too. In a spot like this, the points are simply too much. This line is inflated and the Cardinals have gone 13-7 ATS as an underdog of 21.5 to 31 points. Look for Ball State to 'leave it all on the field' in this one while Bowling Green gets caught looking ahead to the MAC Title game. That will make this game a lot closer than many are expecting.

I am playing on SEATTLE (vs San Francisco) as my *10 NFL Game of the Week on Sunday @ 4:25 ET - The 49'ers are winless on the road this season and the average margin of defeat in those game has been 22 points! Even though San Francisco is off of their bye week, the Niners are 2-7-1 ATS when playing after a week off. The 49'ers overall have failed to cover 11 of their last 15 games and they're in trouble here as they head to Seattle at absolutely the wrong time. The Niners are facing  Seahawks team that is not in a friendly mood after they blew a 29-25 late lead last week and lost to the Cardinals in Seattle. The Hawks battled back from an early 19-0 deficit in that game but, to end up still coming up short at home, Seattle will be ready to explode with energy with the "12th man" behind them in their noisy home stadium Sunday afternoon. The Seahawks dominated in a 20-3 win at San Francisco earlier this season. The Niners did get a tight win before their bye week (versus Atlanta) but QB Blaine Gabbert did throw two picks in that game. Seattle is the much stronger defense and also is quite superior on offense in comparison with the struggling 49'ers. With that said, the big points here are actually quite manageable as the Seahawks should dominate even more than they did in San Francisco earlier this season. The Niners are 0-3 ATS in divisional games this season. The Seahawks, in games played in the second half of a season, are on a 6-0 ATS in games against teams with a losing record. Seattle takes San Fran behind the woodshed Sunday - a true whipping to atone for their home loss to the Cardinals last week. 

I am playing on SAN DIEGO (vs Kansas City) as my *10 AFC West *GAME OF THE YEAR* on Sunday @ 4:05 ET - Only Tom Brady has thrown for more yardage than Phillip Rivers this season. Look for Rivers and the Chargers to test a mediocre Chiefs pass defense throughout this match-up Sunday afternoon. The problem for Kansas City is their own passing attack on offense is too weak to keep up with high-flying Chargers. The Chiefs also give up too many sacks and they were fortunate in their win over the Broncos last week. Kansas City won despite gaining only 303 yards in the game. Certainly some credit has to go to the Chiefs defense for the 5 INTs in the game but the majority of the reasoning for all the picks was simply Peyton Manning looking like his career may be done! With the Chiefs off of that big upset win at Denver (and it was a revenge win) and with San Diego off of their bye week, this is the perfect spot to back the Chargers. San Diego is ready to bounce back after a much needed bye week followed a tough, late loss at home to the Bears on Monday night two weeks ago. The Chargers get their shot at revenge now as they host a Chiefs team that beat them in both meetings last season. Kansas City was so hungry for that revenging win over Denver last week and the Chiefs are on a 3-9 ATS run when off of a divisional game. The Chargers are on a 4-0 ATS run when off of a Monday Night football game.

I am playing on BOSTON COLLEGE (vs Notre Dame) as my *10 Non Conf Game of the Year @ 7:30 ET Saturday - This is essentially a home game for Boston College. The game is being played at Fenway Park in Boston. The Eagles are 9-4 ATS in this series with the Fighting Irish. Even though Boston College enters this game having endured a tough season, the Eagles are off of their bye week and they've been gearing up for this game as it's their last chance to make some noise this season. Boston College's season finale is at Syracuse so a win there certainly wouldn't make any big headlines for the Eagles. However, should BC pull off the upset of Notre Dame, everyone in the country would hear about that! Look for Boston College to bring a huge effort for this game. The Eagles defense is arguably the top defense in the nation. Even though the Boston College offense has been a big weakness, the Eagles did net their season high in passing yards in their loss to NC State before the bye week. Notre Dame is off a win by a 3-TD margin against Wake Forest last week. However, the Irish were outgained by the Demon Deacons in that game and yet the scoreboard result is what is leading to an over-inflated line with ND this week. That is why I see such big value here with a top-ranked Boston College defense playing at home and with their last chance to make a statement this season. The Eagles will pull all out all the stops to keep this one close Saturday. Notre Dame is 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games not in South Bend. Also, as a double digit favorite, the Fighting Irish have covered just 5 of their last 19 games. 

I am playing on OKLAHOMA STATE (vs Baylor) as my *10 CFB Game of the Week @ 7:30 ET Saturday - The Cowboys have dominated this series long-term. Not only has Oklahoma State won 15 of the last 18 meetings between the teams, the Cowboys are also on a 13-3-2 ATS run in the series. The Bears did get the win last season however and the Bears embarrassed Oklahoma State by jumping out to a 42-14 lead in the eventual 49-28 win. That makes this a revenge spot for the Cowboys and it's the perfect set up for Oklahoma State to take advantage of. The last time the teams met north of the Red River, the Cowboys blew out the Bears by a 49-17 final. Oklahoma State, after last year's loss at Baylor, was caught looking ahead to this game a bit as they barely got by Iowa State last week. As for the Bears results last week, they suffered their first loss of the season as they lost to Oklahoma by double digits. That home loss for Baylor could easily result in a case of 'unbeaten letdown' this week as the Bears hopes of going undefeated this season came to an abrupt end. Oklahoma State is 27-13 in their last 40 as a home favorite and the Cowboys certainly watched film on how the Sooners held the Bears to a season low 18 first downs last week. Perfect set up for a huge OSU win this week.

I am playing on LSU (@ Mississippi) as my *10 Main Event @ 3:30 ET Saturday - The Tigers have won 10 of the last 13 meetings between these teams and yet they are getting some points in this year's match-up. That sets up some nice underdog line value for a hungry LSU team. Even though the Tigers are on the road, the home team has covered just 4 times in the last 16 meetings between these schools. Mississippi is off of a bye week and still could be lamenting their loss to Arkansas in overtime in the prior week. After starting the season 4-0, the Rebels have since gone just 3-3. LSU has lost two straight after starting the season with a perfect 7-0 mark. However, the Tigers today will take advantage of an Ole Miss defense that has allowed over 425 yards per game in their last four games. LSU RB Fournette is hungry to bounce back in a big way here (after rare back to back games below 100 yards on the ground) and he'll take advantage of a struggling Rebels defense. Mississippi has lost four of their last six home finales both straight-up and ATS. I am grabbing the points with LSU here but would not be surprised if they get the straight-up win.

I am playing on BOISE STATE (vs Air Force) as my *10 Main Event Friday @ 9:30 ET - Boise State plays this game with true revenge against the Falcons. The Broncos certainly should be well prepared for the option as the past two weeks for Boise State have included a bye week and a game against New Mexico. That's the perfect set up for being prepared to face the Air Force option. That being said, the Broncos did get caught looking ahead to this game as they lost to the Lobos last week even though they were a huge favorite. However, it truly was a strange result on the scoreboard compared to what took place on the field. The Broncos lost 31-24 despite gaining nearly 650 yards in the game. Boise State was simply done in by four turnovers and lost despite outgaining the Lobos by more than 200 yards. Two of the Broncos turnovers last week came in the red zone adding even more fuel to the fire for Boise State this week as they now prepare to face the Falcons team that defeated them by two TDs last year even though Boise State was favored by two TDs. The Broncos were done in by turnovers in last year's game against Air Force. Boise State lost despite an edge of 130- yards in the game. The Falcons are off of a win over Utah State last week but was a home game and Air Force has won 12 straight home games. As an away dog, the Falcons are on a 4-8 ATS run. Boise State is on a 42-25 ATS run against teams with a winning record. Payback time for the Broncos who had won 18 straight games at home before last week's loss to the Lobos.

I am playing on TENNESSEE (@ Jacksonville) as my *10 Main Event on Thursday @ 8:25 ET - The Titans are in a nice bounce back spot here. Two weeks ago they responded well under interim head coach Mularkey and got an outright upset win over New Orleans in the Superdome but they followed it up with a poor effort last week. After being held to just 11 first downs and 242 yards in their loss to Carolina last week, look for the Titans to respond with a big effort this week at Jacksonville. The Jaguars are off of an upset win at Baltimore last week. The Jags got the game winning field goal (a 53 yarder!) as time expired as Jacksonville benefited from four Ravens turnovers. The Jaguars allowed nearly 400 yards of offense to the Ravens and Jacksonville also is likely to be emotionally spent after getting a last second win like that on the road. The Jags have gotten the ATS cover in just 7 of their last 27 home games. Keys in looking at this match-up are the situational edge (Tenn off loss, Jax off win), the fact that the Titans have the much better overall defense, and Tennessee has the much better pass rush in comparison with Jacksonville. The Titans are 6-2-1 ATS in Thursday games. The Jaguars are 1-3 ATS this season in games with a line in the range of -3 to +3. 

I am playing on WESTERN MICHIGAN (@ Northern Illinois) as my *10 BEST BET Wednesday @ 8 ET - This is a battle for first place in the MAC West division and the Broncos certainly have revenge on their minds. Western Michigan has lost each of the last six meetings between the schools. This looks like the year the Broncos can put an end to that streak. The set up is perfect as Northern Illinois is off of a road win at Buffalo while Western Michigan is off of a home loss to Bowling Green. The Falcons offense has been insanely good this season so there is not a lot of shame in that Broncos loss and it certainly has them fired up for this next game. The Huskies win over the Bulls is masking the fact that they do have a concern with the QB position. Northern Illinois was able to get by a mediocre Buffalo team but they are hurting with QB Hare out for the year. His replacement, Graham, is a redshirt freshman. You can bet the Broncos defense is licking their chops when they think about taking advantage of this significant step down in experience level for the Huskies QB position. Look for this to be a key variable in this game as the Broncos bounce back from their first MAC loss of the season. Western Michigan has covered 10 of their last 13 games as a road dog.

I am playing on HOUSTON (@ Cincinnati) as my *10 Main Event on Monday @ 8:30 ET - Even though the Texans have a losing record this season they have been very competitive and actually have outgained their opponents overall on the year. In this match-up Houston is a big underdog and this line appears to be inflated. Houston knows they come into this game with a chance to tie the idle Colts (bye week this week) at the top of the AFC South standings. The Bengals have a ridiculous 7-0-1 ATS mark after their big win over the Browns last week. Truly the big difference between these teams this season has been turnovers. Statistically the Texans and Bengals aren't that different. The Texans have been strong against the pass this season and their aerial attack on offense has produced very well. The key is for Houston to cut down on their turnovers. The Texans have done that and they've now won 2 of their last 3 games. Even though the Bengals are off of a Thursday night game (allowing for some extra rest) the Texans benefit even more here from being off of their bye week. In 8 games this season Houston has only lost two games by more than 7 points. For the Bengals, only 3 of their last 7 games have been won by more than 6 points. The points are simply too big here. Look for a competitive game all the way through. Texans confidence boosted by the big win over Tennessee before their bye week. Held the Titans to just 6 points. It will be tough for the Bengals to create much separation in this Monday night match-up. 

I am playing on SEATTLE (vs Arizona) as my *10 Blue Marlin on Sunday @ 8:30 ET - Big revenge game for Seattle after losing at Arizona earlier this season. Now the Seahawks get the Cardinals in their house where "the 12th man" often is a factor in the loudest venue in the NFL. Both teams are off of their bye week and Marshawn Lynch, recovering from his abdominal injury, is listed as probable for this one. The bruising running back will be utilized to wear down the Cardinals defense and chew up clock in this one as the Hawks look to keep the highly ranked Cards offense off of the field as much as possible. The Cardinals are particularly strong with their aerial attack this season but the Hawks strength on defense is against the pass. Overall, the Seahawks have given up just 12 points or less in 4 of their last 6 games. The Cardinals have allowed an average of 21 points per game in their last five games. The way the Seahawks play at home, so tough on defense, I look for the strength of the Hawks defense over the Cardinals defense to be a huge key here. The Cards defense is solid but not on the same level as the Seahawks and this is particularly key when the game is being played at Seattle. Seattle had won (and covered) 3 straight games against the Cardinals before the loss at Arizona early this season. Sunday it is payback time.

I am playing on MIAMI (@ Philadelphia) as my *10 BEST BET Sunday @ 1 ET - The Eagles were fortunate to eke out an overtime win at Dallas in the Sunday night game last week. The Cowboys had 27 first downs in the game while the Eagles had only 16. Once again, as has happened often this season, the Eagles could not get their run game going last week. Miami has been solid against the pass this season so with the Eagles already struggling on the ground and having to try and beat the Dolphins through the air, this has set up nicely to be a value spot for Miami plus the big points. Miami is off of a loss at Buffalo last week but the Dolphins had 29 first downs in that game while the Bills had just 18 first downs. As you can see, both the Dolphins and Eagles were involved in unusual games last week where the scoring didn't coincide with the way the games truly played out on the field. This is leading to some solid line value for the underdog in this game. Miami has only another non-conference game on deck. For the Eagles, they do have an NFC foe on deck and plus Philly got the much desired revenge win at Dallas last week. That sets this up well in terms of the scheduling situation favoring Miami. The Dolphins are 31-18-1 ATS as a road dog and I expect Miami to add another W to that ATS mark on Sunday.

I am playing on CLEVELAND (@ Pittsburgh) as my *10 NFL Game of the Week on Sunday @ 1 ET - The Steelers edged out Oakland last week but they were helped by turnovers as the Raiders turned it over 4 times. That certainly aided Pittsburgh as they were able to notch the three point victory. The Steelers did allow 440 yards to Oakland last week and that has to be a concern for Pittsburgh as they head into this divisional battle Sunday. The Browns are licking their wounds a bit after getting roughed up at Cincinnati last week but the extra time off (that was a Thursday game) does help them here. With Ben Roethlisberger again hurt for Pittsburgh, I look for the Steelers to fail to cover for a fourth straight game. Pittsburgh's track record as a home favorite in this price range is poor as the Steelers have gone 1-5 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. In home games with a total in a range of 38.5 to 42 points, the Steelers are 1-4 ATS. Cleveland is 7-4 ATS as a road dog of 3.5 to 7 points. The Browns also are 36-25 ATS in road games with a total in a range of 38.5 to 42 points. Look for the return of QB Josh McCown to spark the Browns on Sunday as they go all out in an upset bid heading into their bye week.

I am playing on SAN DIEGO STATE (vs Wyoming) as my *10 BLUE MARLIN Saturday @ 10:30 ET - A lot of points to lay here but Wyoming has simply been dreadful this season and a blowout is in the offing Saturday. The Cowboys are 1-9 on the year and all nine losses have come by a double digit margin. All of Wyoming's road losses have come by at least two touchdowns and they certainly appear to be traveling to San Diego State at absolutely the wrong time. The Aztecs are off of their bye week so they will have rested, fresh legs. Additionally, the San Diego State offense has been rolling and firing on all cylinders. The Aztecs have averaged 44.5 points per game in their last two games. San Diego State is hosting a Wyoming team that has averaged just 17 points per game on the road this season. You can see that based on those numbers alone there is reason to expect a blowout here. Adding fuel to the fire is the fact that the Aztecs did lose outright (as an 18.5 point favorite!) in a shocking upset the last time they hosted the Cowboys. With that said, there is no doubt the Cowboys have the attention of the Aztecs this week and San Diego State has payback on their minds. The Aztecs are not only off of a bye week, they catch Wyoming playing for the 11th straight week so this game offers a big scheduling edge for San Diego State. The Aztecs have covered five straight games overall. Also, in conference action, San Diego State is on an amazing 21-6 ATS run in conference games. Huge edge in defense to the Aztecs in this one and that will help lead to a blowout margin in getting revenge for that prior home loss to the Cowboys.

I am playing on LSU (vs Arkansas) as my CFB *10 GAME OF THE MONTH Saturday @ 7:15 ET - Off of their disappointing loss to Alabama last week this may not seem like the best spot to back LSU as one may fear that they would be flat after their undefeated start to the season came to an end or, after losing such a important game against a big rival. However, the key reason that is highly unlikely is that the Tigers have plenty of motivation relating directly to this match-up with the Hogs. Arkansas embarrassed LSU last year in a 17-0 win. In that game the Tigers were held to season lows in yardage and in first downs. LSU didn't even crack the 125 mark in yards and also the Tigers were held to just a dozen first downs. The Razorbacks defense hasn't shown many signs of defense like that this season and I look for the hungry Tigers to use their big running game to open up some opportunities down the field for the aerial attack too. LSU is hungry after the loss to the Alabama and the Tigers also are extremely fired up for returning some punishment to the Razorbacks in Louisiana after what the Hogs did to them at Arkansas last season. The Razorbacks are off of their wild overtime win at Mississippi last week so this is the perfect spot in which to fade them. Arkansas won't be able to refocus after the emotional high of beating the Rebels in overtime while the Tigers will have plenty of focus at home and remembering what happened against Arkansas last season. This one should be all Tigers!

I am playing on WASHINGTON (@ Arizona State) as my *10 BEST BET Saturday @ 3 ET - Look for the Huskies to spoil the Sun Devils homecoming game. Washington is a small dog in this game despite the series dominance that Arizona State has had in their match-ups. That fact alone is sending a message to the betting markets for this one. That message is that the gap has closed in terms of the talent level between these two teams and, indeed, this looks like the perfect opportunity for the Huskies to put an end to the Sun Devils 9 game winning streak in this series. Washington lost last season's match-up by two touchdowns despite outgaining Arizona State in that game. The Huskies have payback on their minds in this revenge spot. The Sun Devils come into this game on a bit of a freefall as they have lost three straight games. As for the Huskies, even though they are off of a loss to Utah, Washington did outgain the Utes in that game. Washington is led by Head Coach Petersen who has covered 14 of last 22 as an underdog. Arizona State is slumping with having failed to cover 9 of their last 11 games. With both teams sitting at 4-5 on the season this becomes a critical contest and there is great value with the Huskies as an underdog as many of their recent defeats have been impacted by turnovers. Statistically, the Huskies have actually been quite productive (other than the turnovers) and this is leading to great line value in this spot.

I am playing on COLORADO (vs. Southern Cal) as my *10 CFB Game of the Week on Friday @ 9 ET - It will be a chilly evening in Colorado on Friday night. Not exactly typical of the weather the Trojans are used to down in sunny Southern California. This does appear to be a bit of a trap game for USC and I expect the Buffaloes to be a tough out as a scrappy home dog. Colorado is off of a rare poor effort against Stanford. Prior to that game the Buffaloes had only two losses by more than an 8 point margin this entire season. Colorado is a dangerous place to visit late in the season and can be a tough out as a home dog. The Buffaloes are on an overall 10-3 ATS run in home games. The Trojans are 11-21 ATS in their last 32 games as a road favorite. The fact that USC is favored by more than two touchdowns here is offering even more value on what should be a chilly, raw night in Boulder, Colorado. Statistically, the Trojans only rank slightly better on each side of the ball in comparison with the Buffaloes. USC has been more efficient on both sides of the ball in terms of the relationship between yardage and points but, the point is, in terms of moving the ball on offense and limiting others production on defense, there is not a large gap between these two teams. Certainly there does not appear to be one large enough to justify this big line. USC is 2-8 ATS when they are on a winning streak of two or more games. Colorado is 3-1 ATS as a home dog in a range of 14.5 to 17 points.

I am playing on GEORGIA TECH (vs Virginia Tech) as my *10 Blue Marlin on Thursday @ 7:30 ET - The Yellow Jackets have covered 5 of the last 7 meetings with the Hokies. Their option attack, no matter how strong a defense might be, is never that easy to defend. With that said, Virginia Tech has not been as strong on defense this year as they have been in prior seasons and a road game at Georgia Tech is unlikely to help matters for Virginia Tech. The Hokies dominating win over Boston College on Halloween may look good on paper but the Eagles have one of the worst offenses in Division I football this season! That defensive effort, though impressive, almost needs stricken from the records when trying to gauge the Virginia Tech defense. That said, in their other three road games this season, the Hokies have allowed an average of 30 points per game. That spells trouble as Virginia Tech now faces a Yellow Jackets team that has averaged 43 points per game in their home games this season. Georgia Tech is angry off of their upset loss at the hands of the Hokies in Virginia. The Yellow Jackets also know that they must win out to become bowl eligible. All these factors in favor of the home team have me siding with Georgia Tech in this one as they should win in a rout. 

I am playing on SAN FRANCISCO (vs Atlanta) as my *10 NFL Game of the Week @ 4:05 ET Sunday - The 49'ers are going to surprise people today. The QB change was needed. Gabbert is coming in for Kaepernick and I expect this to spark the Niners in a big way on Sunday. As it is, San Francisco has played much better at home in comparison with on the road this season and we certainly haven't seen the Falcons blowing teams away very often this season. As a result, there is great line value here with the sizable home dog. Atlanta is 6-2 on the season but 4 of their 6 wins have been by 6 points or less. Also, the Falcons haven't blown out team in over a month when they annihilated Houston on October 4th. As for the Niners, they are 2-2 at home this season and San Francisco will get a spark with the QB change today. Remember there have been some flashes of significant success on offense for the Niners this season and those did come at home. San Francisco put up 230 yards on the ground against the Vikings and 326 yards through the air against the Ravens. With the QB change sparking the entire offensive unit, I expect a big day for SF against a Falcons defense that has allowed an average of nearly 250 passing yards per game in their road games this season. Atlanta is 3-8 ATS when off of a divisional game and they lost to Tampa Bay last week. The Niners are 8-4 ATS in games in NFL weeks 5 through 9 the past 3 seasons.

I am playing on the NEW YORK JETS (vs Jacksonville) as my *10 Blue Marlin on Sunday @ 1 PM ET - The Jets lost by a pair of touchdowns to the Raiders on the West Coast last week. With that said, New York is ready to respond in a big way this week. The Jets are hosting  Jacksonville team that had a bye last week after going to London the week before. Even though the Jaguars won that game at London, Jacksonville was quite fortunate. The Jags barely hung on for the win against the Bills and that is helping to offer some line value here as, arguably, Jacksonville won a game they did not deserve to win. The Jags are one of the worst teams in the league defending the pass and, on offense, Jacksonville has struggled in the run game. These are weaknesses that the Jets will take advantage of with their game planning. The Jaguars are a poor 14-31-1 ATS when they face teams from outside their division. The Jets, will be looking to bounce back after an embarrassing effort out West and New York is 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games. The Jets have one of the top defenses in the league (last week's effort being an aberration) and the Jags are 13-23-2 in their last 38 games as an underdog. Jets should win this one in a blowout!

I am playing on WASHINGTON (vs Utah) as my *10 PAC-12 Game of the Year Saturday @ 7:30 ET - The Huskies had lost three of their four games prior to facing Arizona last week. Washington then proceeded to absolutely crush the Wildcats in a 49-3 final and I expect the Huskies to carry forward some momentum from that game right into this week's big match-up with Utah. Series history is certainly on the side of the Huskies as, though most of it is quite dated, Washington is 8-0 all time against the Utes. The Huskies absolutely dominated both sides of the ball last week as they shut down an Arizona team that had been moving the ball quite well on offense. That gives the Huskies defense a big confidence boost heading into this match-up with Utah. The Utes seem to be stuck in a "sluggish mode" right now and it's the perfect time to fade them again as they can't seem to shake the doldrums. Utah suffered their first loss of the season two weeks ago against USC and then seemed quite sluggish in their unimpressive win last week over a weak Oregon State team. Statistically the Huskies are the better defense in this match-up and they hold the home field edge as well as the situational edge as the Utes still seem stuck suffering from 'unbeaten letdown' since the loss to the Trojans. Washington keeps Utah's downward spiral going Saturday.

I am playing on SOUTH CAROLINA (@ Tennessee) as my *10 Game of the Week Saturday @ 4 ET - After winning three straight in this series, South Carolina has been upset each of the last two years. Perhaps this is they year the Gamecocks get the big upset? Whether that occurs or not I certainly do feel these big points are well worth the taking. Tennessee seems overpriced here with an inflated line. The Volunteers are facing a South Carolina offense that got some confidence back with arguably their best performance on offense this season in their 35-28 loss to A & M last week. The Gamecocks defense has been a weakness this season but with a resurgent offense and catching Tennessee off back to back big games, I expect South Carolina to 'hang around' in this game all the way through. The Volunteers had a big game with Alabama two weeks ago and then got a big road win at Kentucky last week. Not sure the Vols have enough left in the tank to earn a blowout win here. Look for South Carolina to give them quite a scare in this one as they stay close throughout. 

I am playing on NORTH CAROLINA (vs Duke) as my *10 Blue Marlin Saturday @ 12:00 ET - This battle is for first place in the ACC Coastal Division as well as the Victory Bell. It is a big rivalry indeed and yet North Carolina has truly dominated as they have won 22 of the last 25 meetings. Duke is off of a crushing loss to Miami as the Blue Devils rallied late and looked like they had won the game only to have questionable multi-lateral kickoff return touchdown for the Hurricanes prove to be the deciding points. Games like that are so tough to come back from and I expect Duke to struggle here. Last year the Tar Heels annihilated the Blue Devils by a margin of 25 points and, considering the circumstances here, a similar result this year can be expected. The Tar Heels are on a 15-8 ATS run and getting fantastic QB play from Williams. North Carolina also is going for their 8th straight win overall as they've won 7 in a row since dropping their season opener this year. Laying just single digits, this play easily made my Saturday card.

I am playing on SMU (vs Temple) as my *10 Main Event Friday @ 8:00 ET - The last time these two teams met was two years ago and the Mustangs won by double digits even though they were down by two touchdowns at halftime. The fact that SMU has this game at home and that Temple is off of a huge 'mega-game' against the Fighting Irish has me backing the Mustangs here. SMU is catching the Owls at the perfect time to spring the upset. SMU comes into this game off of a loss to Tulsa and the issue in that game was an inability to stop the Golden Hurricane offense. However, the Owls offense is certainly not a strength this season and it is going to prove difficult for Temple to create much separation on the scoreboard in this one. The Owls hanging tight with Notre Dame last week was certainly impacted by the fact that Temple got some red zone turnovers in that game. The Fighting Irish easily could have won by quite a margin if not for those turnovers. This 'quirky' result from last week is helping to provide additional line value this week as the Owls are a more heavily favored than they should be in what is truly a flat spot that is perfect for the fade. Take SMU and fade Temple here as it will be hard for the Owls to be focused on a 1-7 Mustangs team when they just played a 7-1 top foe.

I am playing on FRESNO STATE (vs Nevada) as my *10 Main Event Thursday @ 10:30 ET - The Bulldogs are a dangerous home dog in this spot. For one thing, Nevada is in a great spot to be faded here. The Wolf Pack have gone 5-13 ATS as a road favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. Also, Nevada is off of a win over Hawaii and the Wolf Pack have gone 2-6 SU and ATS the last 8 times they are off of a victory over a conference foe. Fresno State is known for thriving in this role. As a home dog of 3.5 to 7 points the Bulldogs have gone 8-2 ATS. Fresno State won 7 of those 10 games outright. The Bulldogs have won each of the last two meetings between these teams by at least 18 points each time. From October 17th through November 27th this is the only home game that Fresno State has on their schedule. As a result, this one had already been circled as a must win game and the Bulldogs want to make the most of their home field edge Thursday. Look for Fresno State's fantastic history in the home dog role to add another win tonight. 

I am playing on CLEVELAND (@ Cincinnati) as my *10 NFL Thursday Game of the Year @ 8:25 ET - The Browns turn to Johnny Manziel in this one. The double digits being offered to Cleveland are a huge value here. The Browns blew the cover in the second half last week against the Cardinals and that has helped to keep this line up higher than it should be. Cleveland has forced 8 turnovers in their 3 last three games and that could be a factor in this game as well. The Browns are facing the Bengals at an opportune time to spring the upset. The Bengals are off of a hard fought late game win at Pittsburgh Sunday. That win over a hated rival was an emotional one for the Bengals and it is going to be difficult for Cincinnati to maintain that same level of high intensity in back to back weeks. Also, the Bengals are winless and 0-2 ATS in their Thursday appearances in recent seasons. As a favorite of 10 or more points, Cincinnati is on a longterm 1-5 ATS run. The Browns are 18-9 ATS as a road dog of 10.5 to 14 points. Cleveland also is undefeated and 2-0 ATS in their Thursday appearances in recent seasons. In a road game with a posted total between 45.5 and 49 points, the Browns are on an 8-2 ATS run. The value is with the big points and the hungry underdog in Thursday Night NFL.

I am playing on WESTERN MICHIGAN (vs Ball State) as my *10 Blue Marlin Thursday @ 7:30 ET - The Broncos are poised for a blowout here. Two years ago Western Michigan lost at home against the Cardinals and they certainly haven't forgotten that game. The Broncos lost by a 3 touchdown margin to Ball State. The Cardinals truly were the much better team back in 2013 but things have definitely changed quickly in a span of just two short years and now Western Michigan can 'return the favor' of a beatdown in this one. The Broncos are favored by two touchdowns and it is absolutely an 'earned' pointspread. Ball State has one of the worst defenses in the MAC and also ranks quite low on the offensive charts as well. The Cardinals, since their season opening win over an over-matched VMI team, have had just one big game on offense the rest of this season (against Northern Illinois). In their other seven games since the season opener, Ball State has averaged just 20 points per game! That kind of performance on offense is not going to cut it against a Western Michigan team that has averaged 41 points per game in their last 6 games. In weeks 10 thru 13 of the CFB season, the Cardinals are 0-5 ATS the past two seasons. The Broncos are 5-2 ATS in games on turf this season and the Cards simply are not going to be able to keep up with Western Michigan's potent offense in this one.

I am playing on OHIO UNIVERSITY (@ Bowling Green) as my *10 MAC Game of the Year Wednesday @ 8 ET - The Falcons certainly have been rolling and therefore are getting a lot of attention heading into this match-up with the Bobcats and that is helping to provide additional line value for underdog Ohio University in this one. Oftentimes the worst thing for a team that was rolling is to have a bye week. That takes away from the momentum that was being built. Look for Bowling Green to perhaps be a little sluggish in this one early and I certainly don't expect them to be firing on all cylinders right out of the gate. Also, the Bobcats are allowing just 194 passing yards per game. One of the Falcons biggest strengths is their passing attack but they not find the yardage through the air coming so easy against Ohio U. The Bobcats were off of back to back losses so, for them, the bye week was welcome. It was the first time this season that Ohio U. had lost two straight games. The past seasons, when off of back to back losses, the Bobcats have gone 3-1 SU and ATS in their next game. Neither team has played a difficult schedule this season but this is the Falcons first game this season where they've faced a team with a winning record on the year. That is worth noting because Bowling Green is 21-33 ATS in their last 54 games against teams with a winning record. Look for this game to be much closer than many are expecting. 

I am playing on INDIANAPOLIS (@ Carolina) as my *10 MNF Main Event - The Colts are off of back to back losses. This has only happened one other time this season and just one other time the prior two seasons combined. Each time, Indianapolis responded to the back to back defeats by getting a straight-up win in their next game. While that may be a bit much to ask for against the undefeated Panthers, the fact is there is a lot of value with the points being offered to the Colts in this one. Indianapolis lost their first two games this season and they did rally for a road win in their next game. The Colts are 5-2 ATS in road games with a total in a range of 45.5 to 49 points as this total is. Indianapolis also is 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games played on grass. Carolina may try to slow this game down with their potent running attack. In my opinion that even makes having the points with the Colts that much more attractive because I feel the Panthers are going to struggle to pull away in this game and the Colts (especially with having Andrew Luck in the pocket) could absolutely spring the upset here or be in line for the back door cover (if needed). *10 MNF Main Event INDIANAPOLIS

I am playing on DALLAS (vs Seattle) as my *10 Game of the Week on Sunday @ 4:25 ET - Look for a much better game from Matt Cassel today. The Cowboys did move the ball well against the Giants last week but they were done in by turnovers. That has been a recurrent them for Dallas this season ever since Tony Romo went down with an injury. The Cowboys offense has moved the ball well but then shot themselves in the foot. Now that Cassel was able to shake off the rust last week, I look for less mistakes today and I expect the Cowboys to continue to move the ball well. The Cowboys attack on offense should be further bolstered by the return of Dez Bryant as the star wideout is listed as probable for this game and expected to make his return to the lineup. The Cowboys will certainly be fired up about facing the back to back NFC champs and I like the home dog value Dallas is getting in this spot. The Cowboys are 12-6 ATS as an underdog the last 3 seasons. Also, specifically as a home dog of 3.5 to 7 points, Dallas is on a longterm 8-4 ATS run. When on a losing streak of 2 games or more the Cowboys have responded with a solid 33-21 SU record and 30-21-3 ATS. Weeks 5 through 9 of an NFL season have not been kind to Seahawks backers in recent seasons. The last 3 years in Weeks 5 through 9 Seattle has gone 3-9 ATS. The Hawks are off of a divisional win over San Francisco and they have Arizona on deck after their upcoming bye week. That makes this a difficult spot for Seattle and it is a perfect home dog spot with Dallas who should get a boost with the return of Dez Bryant.

I am playing on ST LOUIS (vs San Francisco) as my *10 Blue Marlin on Sunday @ 1 PM ET - St Louis has given up a total of just 18 points in their last two home games. That doesn't bode well for the 49'ers offense to get back on track today. San Francisco's offense has been struggling badly as they've been held to 7 points or less in 3 of their last 5 games. The Niners were held under 200 yards of offense in each of those 3 games and San Francisco is simply not getting good QB play right now. The Niners have lost five of their last six games while the Rams have won two of their past three games. As an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points the 49'ers have gone 3-8 ATS the last 3 seasons combined. In divisional games San Francisco is 0-2 ATS this season and 5-10 ATS the last 3 seasons combined. Since they are off of a loss to a division foe (Seattle) you might would expect San Francisco to bounce back here but they are 2-4 SU and ATS when they are off of a divisional loss. The Rams have gone 6-2 ATS in the past two Novembers and they get this November off to a good start as well. The Niners had more punts than first downs last week! The anemic offense of San Francisco is once again the difference maker in this one.

I am playing on WASHINGTON STATE (vs Stanford) as my *10 ESPN Game of the Week @ 10:30 ET Saturday - Another case of tremendous line value with a dangerous big dog on their home turf. Make no mistake about it the Washington State defense is a weakness of theirs. But when you have an offense like the Cougars do (averaging over 500 yards per game this season) you rarely are out of game and also have tremendous backdoor cover potential (if needed). Washington State is catching Stanford at a good time. It is the first road game that the Cardinal have had since late September. That can be tough on a team and Stanford is 3-7 ATS as a road favorite the last 3 years. Also, as a road favorite of 7.5 to 10 points, the Cardinal have gone 1-4 (20%) ATS. The Cougars are playing with some extra confidence right now as they have won three straight games. When entering a game on a winning streak of 2 games or more, Washington State is 4-1 (80%) ATS. The Cougars only two losses season came by 7 points or less and they are 'in this one' all the way Saturday night.

I am playing on TEMPLE (vs Notre Dame) as my *10 CFB Game of the Month @ 8 ET Saturday - People not from the Philly area don't understand the level of passion the Philly fans have about certain teams. When you've had the years of subpar results that many Philadelphia pro and college teams have had it creates a disdain for some of the most successful teams across all levels. This is why people around Philly are known for hatred of the Yankees in MLB, the Cowboys in NFL, and - you guessed it - Notre Dame in College Football. With all the history of storied success for the Fighting Irish there are many fans in the area who feel that any Saturday is a good Saturday...as long as Notre Dame loses. The key point here is that Temple and all the fans are going to be sky high for this game. College Gameday is coming to Temple and the Owls are going to be more than ready. The points being offered to the undefeated Owls here are simply too high. Notre Dame gave up nearly 600 yards in their most recent game and the Fighting Irish will struggle to hold off the Owls in this one. With that said, I just don't see Notre Dame as being able to pull away in this game. The Irish are 3-7 as a road favorite the last 3 years combined. As a road favorite of 10.5 to 14 points, Notre Dame is a long-term 3-6 ATS. Temple is 3-0 ATS this season and 14-6 ATS the last 3 seasons combined as an underdog. As an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points the prior two seasons, the Owls went 4-1 (80%) ATS. Huge value with the hungry, big dog in this match-up.

I am playing on KENTUCKY (vs Tennessee) as my *10 SEC Game of the Year @ 7 ET Saturday - The Volunteers are off of a tough loss at Alabama. The defeat at the hands of the Crimson Tide was the type of loss that is tough to bounce back from. The Vols have now lost 4 of their last 6 games and I simply do not see any justification for Tennessee to be installed as favorite of more than a TD in this road game at Kentucky. The Wildcats did get trounced by Mississippi State last week but the Cats were on the road and turnovers certainly had a lot to do with that final result as well. Kentucky has lost back to back games but they previously were 4-1 on the season. The Wildcats can (and should be expected to) bounceback in this spot. Kentucky has been dominated for years in their series with Tennessee but the Cats have absolutely closed the gap on the Vols in terms of talent level. These teams are much more evenly matched now and with the home field edge combined with the large point spread here, the underdog is the way to go in this one. The Wildcats have averaged nearly 300 yards per game through the air in their last 4 games and look for the Kentucky aerial attack to be the difference-maker in this match-up Saturday.

I am playing on BALTIMORE (@ Arizona) as my *10 Game of the Week - The Ravens are 0-5-1 ATS on the season but they've actually played a number of close games and I feel the spread here with Arizona has gotten out of hand. Baltimore's six games this season have all been decided by 6 points or less! The Ravens lone straight-up victory came by 3 points and their five losses came by an average margin of defeat of just 4.4 points! Now they are dogs of more than a TD and they've played a tougher schedule than have the Cardinals. Arizona, coming into this week's action, has played just one team all season that currently has a winning record on the season. All of the prior opponents of the Cardinals had just two wins on the season except for Pittsburgh and that Steelers team just beat the Cards by double digits last week. By the way, that's the same Steelers team against which the Ravens have their lone victory of the season. The Steelers enter this week with a 4-2 record on the season and Baltimore also has faced Denver and Cincinnati. Both of these teams area undefeated 6-0 on the season. That said, the combined record of these three teams is 16-2 and, as you can see from this, the Ravens have indeed faced the much tougher schedule. A couple long-term trends are also in play here as the Cardinals are 1-7 ATS as a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 points and Arizona also is 2-7 ATS on Monday nights. The Ravens are 6-2 ATS in non-conference action. *10 Game of the Week BALTIMORE

I am playing on DETROIT (vs Minnesota) as my *10 Best Bet Sunday @ 1 PM ET - Adrian Peterson is a question mark heading into this divisional match-up and that certainly won't do the Vikings any favors. Minnesota is off of a big win over Kansas City so the Lions are catching the Vikes at the right time in my opinion. Detroit has been right on the cusp of a victory in so many games this season but they have fallen just short...until last week...and I feel that the big much-needed win that the Lions got last week will be a spring board for future weeks. Look for Detroit to win huge today on their home field and I like having them as a home dog in this match-up. The Lions are playing with revenge from their loss at Minnesota earlier this season and Detroit is facing a Vikes team that has been outgained in each of their last three games yet won two of them. Look for the Vikings good fortune to run out this week. 

I am playing on ST LOUIS (vs. Cleveland) as my *10 Personal Favorite @ 1 ET Sunday - Perfect timing for the Rams to catch Cleveland. The Browns are off of a heart-breaking overtime loss at home against the Broncos last week. Cleveland had their chances to knock off one of the few remaining undefeated teams in the league but the ultimate disappointment of falling just short there is something that is hard to then take on the road. Now the Browns have to deal with a rested Rams team that is off of their bye week. In their week before the bye St Louis lost at Green Bay but the Rams actually outgained the Packers in that match-up. In fact the Rams defense has been among top performers so far this season and I look for a huge performance from the St Louis D since they are coming off of a loss and a bye week. The Rams have allowed an average of just 19 points per game in their last 3 games while Cleveland has given up at least 26 points in all but one of their games this season. There is a huge difference in the quality of defenses of these two teams. Combining that with the strong situational edges the Rams have here and this play easily got the call as my *10 Personal Favorite for this week. 

I am playing on WASHINGTON (@ Stanford) as my *10 Best Bet on Saturday @ 10:30 PM ET - With all the questions about the quarterback position for the Huskies throughout the week, there ended up being tremendous line value offered to Washington in this match-up at Stanford. The Huskies are hungry after their tight loss to Oregon last week. Speaking of tight losses. Each of their past two meetings with Stanford have been decided by just one score as well. I feel this line has truly gotten out of hand on the Cardinal because this season they also certainly haven't shown the same stout defense they had possessed in prior years. This season the Cardinal have given up 386 yards or more in 3 of their last four games. That is simply something you would not have seen with past Stanford teams. There is additional line value here because the Cardinal beat UCLA by 3 TD's last week but Stanford was out-gained by 65 yards in that game. Washington is 8-4 ATS in road games the last 3 seasons. Stanford has some extra rest for this game but the Cardinal have gone 1-3 straight-up and against the spread the last 4 times they've played a game after 8 days of rest. I like the big points with the scrappy underdog in this one. *10 Best Bet WASHINGTON

I am playing on USC (vs Utah) as my *10 Personal Favorite Saturday @ 7:30 ET - Big revenge spot for the Trojans as they lost on a field goal with less than ten seconds to go in last season's match-up between these clubs. The last time the teams met at Southern Cal the Trojans dominated with a win by a margin of 16 points. I look for a similar result today. USC is off of a loss by a double digit margin at Notre Dame so the Trojans do have more motivation here than just revenge for last year's defeat at the hands of the Utes. In the loss to the Fighting Irish the Trojans outgained Notre Dame by more than 100 yards and I look for them to come up big at home here and bounce back from the frustrating road defeat. The Trojans are catching Utah at a good time as the Utes are off of a big come from behind win over Arizona State last week that kept them undefeated. Utah has a bullseye on their backs right now and USC would love to be the team that puts the first blemish on their record. Even though the Utes are undefeated they have been outgained in half of their games this season and I look for a huge game from the Trojans in their first home game since Sarkisian was fired.

I am playing on Virginia Tech (vs Duke) as my *10 ACC Game Of Year Saturday @ 3:30 ET - The Hokies are 13-1 in the last 14 meetings in this series. Virginia Tech did get some measure of revenge last year by winning at Duke. However, the Hokies still remember what happened the last time the Blue Devils visited Blacksburg, VA. That home loss two years ago is something Virginia Tech wants to make sure doesn't happen again here. In that game the Hokies actually outgained Duke by nearly 200 yards but simply fell short on the scoreboard. While the Blue Devils come into this year's match-up off of win (huge win over Army preceded the bye) the Hokies come in very hungry. This is not only because of the home loss to Duke two years ago but also because they lost by double digits to Miami last week. Virginia Tech will be fired up in this spot and they are a great value at a low price at home for this one. Revenge time in this ACC match-up Saturday. Even though Duke has certainly enjoyed a resurgence under coach Cutcliffe, this is still a Blue Devils team with long term marks like these: 31-96 SU in road games, 38-149 SU in conference games, and 8-23 SU when off of a bye week. This one should be all Hokies.

I am playing on SAN DIEGO STATE (vs. Utah State) as my *10 Best Bet on Friday @ 10:30 PM ET - Although these teams haven't met since 2010 and some of the history is old, it's hard to ignore the fact that San Diego State has a 10-1 edge in this series history. The last time these two teams met was 5 years ago and the Aztecs gained more than double the yardage of the Aggies. I expect Utah State to struggle in this tough scheduling spot as they are off of a huge win over Boise State. That makes this a definite flat spot for the Aggies. It had been nearly 25 years since Utah State had recorded a home win over a ranked foe and they did benefit from 8 turnovers in that win over the Broncos. San Diego State is also off on upset win but it was a small upset as the Aztecs were +3 beat San Jose State. Unlike Utah State's big dog win, it also wasn't about turnovers. San Diego State simply pummeled the Spartans with a dominating yardage edge of 377 to 148. The Aztecs are in a nice situation here as a home dog and catching a road fave of a huge upset win. That makes the Aztecs a very dangerous dog in this spot. *10 Best Bet SAN DIEGO STATE Friday

I am playing on UCLA (vs California) as my *10 Thursday Main Event - Looking at the history of this series it's been the home team that has held the upper hand as they've won 13 of the last 15 meeings with a fantastic 12-2-1 ATS mark in those 15 games. With that said, the Bruins look like the play here, on the surface, but there is certainly much more than just series history on their side. UCLA won last year's game by only two points but they actually outgained Cal by about 200 yards and so the margin of victory should have been even greater in that non-covering win. The last visit at UCLA was two years ago and the Bruins won by a 27 point margin in a dominating win. Each team comes into this game off of a loss and even though the Golden Bears are off of a bye week the Bruins are at least on normal rest since they did play last Thursday as well. That ugly result against Stanford last Thursday has UCLA fired up to come up with a huge win here on Thursday night. The Bruins have lost back to back Pac 12 games by double digit margins and I believe that will have them fired up for a huge performance here. Also, UCLA does have a strong pass defense and the Bears do get about 70% of their offense through the air so I expect this strong edge for the Bruins to be a difference-maker in this one. Once again in this series, the home team should get the job done. 

I am playing on EAST CAROLINA (vs Temple) as my *10 Thursday ESPN Roast - This is a revenge game for the Pirates as they lost to the Owls last season despite outgaining them by nearly 300 yards. East Carolina had an edge in first downs of TWENTY but it was EIGHT fumbles on the day (5 of those resulting in turnovers) that ruined the day for the Pirates. A tough loss byt a 20-10 final as a 10 point favorite so revenge is definitely on order Thursday. East Carolina comes into this game off of a win over Tulsa last week. Even though the 30-17 final may not look that impressive, the Pirates were up 23-0 in the 4th quarter of that game before 'taking their foot off of the gas'. The Owls come into this game with a perfect 6-0 record on the season and actually ranked for the first time in 36 years. That is keeping this line off of where it should be and I'll grab the value with Pirates HC McNeill who has a 6-1 ATS record when seeking revenge. 

I am playing on PHILADELPHIA (vs NY Giants) as my *10 Main Event on Monday @ 8:30 PM ET - Philadelphia is off a blowout win over New Orleans where they got their offense back in top form with a 519 yard performance. That gives the Eagles plenty of confidence as they now take on a Giants team that barely escaped with a 3 point win over the 49'ers last week. Though it would be nearly impossible for the Giants to overlook the Eagles it is still worth mentioning that the Giants do have the Cowboys on deck. Dallas handed them an early season loss in excruciating fashion. That said, if the Giants get down in this one it would be easy to start looking ahead to their opportunity for revenge against Dallas coming up later this week. The Eagles are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 match-ups with the Giants and always sem to give New York a lot of problems. There have been multiple "miracles at the meadowlands" through the years but, in this case, this match-up is in Philly where the Eagles are on a long-term 40-19 straight up run when favored by 3.5 to 7 points. With that type of success, and knowing this point spread is at the lower end of that scale, don't be suprised if the Eagles get another big ATS win over the Giants here. *10 Main Event PHILADELPHIA Monday.

I am playing on INDIANAPOLIS (vs New England) as my 10* Rivalry Game of the Week - The Colts are healthier this week, they've won three straight games, and the Patriots are simply getting too much respect from odds makers here. Indianapolis has given up 20 points or less in 3 of their last 4 games and they play this game with playoff revenge from January's playoff beating in Foxboro. Getting this game at home is a huge edge and the Pats are 3-6 ATS as a road favorite of 7.5 to 10 points. The Colts have failed to cover their first two home games this season but they entered this year having gone 12-5 ATS in home games the prior two seasons. With better health (Luck and Hilton) and with the confidence of a three game winning streak in tow, the Colts have what it takes to give the Patriots all they can handle here. The result should be that Indianapolis resumes their strong ATS trend of covering in home games.

I am playing on BALTIMORE (@ San Franciso) as my 10* Non-Conf. Personal Fav - The Ravens, after finally getting into the win column with a key win over Pittsburgh, are livid again after they dropped last week's game to the Browns. A tight loss to Cleveland means Baltimore needs to get back on track in a hurry as they are already 1-4 on the season. With a pair of road games now on the docket for Baltimore (and a tough one up head at Arizona), the Ravens know they must take care of business at San Francisco this week. The 49'ers have lost 4 straight games and given up 34 points per game in those 4 match-ups. With that said, this looks like the perfect match-up for Baltimore to get back on track. The Ravens are 6-1 ATS in non-conference games the last three seasons combined. One might think that Baltimore would be flat when coming off of an AFC North game. However, the Ravens are 9-4 ATS when off of a divisonal game. This is a very small line on this game and the 49'ers are 3-9 SU in their last 12 games as an underdog. The Niners are averaging just 15 points per game this season while the Ravens have averaged 27.5 points per game in their last 4 games. San Francisco simply won't be able to keep up here and this one should be all Baltimore.

I am playing on DETROIT (vs Chicago) as my *10 Game of the Month on Sunday @ 1 ET - The Bears have snuck out back to back wins but, in my mind, that is merely helping to give us some nice line value here in the ability to, at a short price, fade a team that easily could be winless on the season just as the Lions are. Despite being without a victory this season, Detroit has been playing better of late and have definitely had some close calls this season where they have come up just short. At home, in a divisional game, and in desperate need of a victory, I expect the Lions to come up big here. The Bears lost their first three games this season by an average margin of defeat of 20 points per game. The Lions put up 436 yards of offense against Arizona last week but fell short due to 6 turnovers. Even though turnovers have been an issue for Detroit this season, the Lions actually were "even" in turnovers on the season before last week's 0-6 debacle against the Cardinals. Detroit is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 as a home favorite. Also, the Lions have won each of their last 4 games against Chicago and I expect another big victory over the Bears early Sunday.

I am playing on COLORADO STATE (vs Air Force) as my *10 False Favorite Game of the Year - This is a big revenge spot for the Rams as they were a TD favorite over the Falcons last year but lost outright by a field goal. Colorado State will have extra motivation as a result and the scheduling situation certainly favors the Rams as well. That's because CSU has a bye week on deck while Air Force is in a much tougher scheduling spot. The Falcons are off back to back rivalry games including last week's big win over Wyoming. Look for this win to leave Air Force a little "flat" for this game where as the Rams are fired up not only because of last week's loss to the Falcons but also because they got drilled 41-10 by Boise State last week. Now it's CSU's turn to be on the right side of a rout and the last time they faced Air Force here they won huge by a 58 to 13 margin. While the margin may not be quite so big this time around, the scheduling and motivational edges here sure do point to another big win for the Rams.

I am playing on FRESNO STATE (vs UNLV) as my *10 Friday ESPN Best Bet - This is a perfect spot to back the Bulldogs. Fresno State was embarrassed badly last week at home against Utah State. That said, the Bulldogs will be looking to take out some frustration this week after the embarrassment at the hands of the Aggies last week. Fresno State will take advantage of facing a UNLV team that is 2-4 on the season. The Rebels upset the Bulldogs last season to end Fresno State's 3 game winning streak in this series. That said it's time for a little payback Friday and the Bulldogs won the last meeting in Fresno State by 24 points. While it is true the Bulldogs have lost five straight games heading into this one, they have certainly faced a tough schedule with some tough match-ups during that stretch. 3 of the first 4 games in the 5 game losing streak were on the road. The Bulldogs, after last week's rare debacle at home, will certainly come to play on Friday night at home. Fresno State is 7-2 ATS as a home dog of 3.5 to 7 points and 6 of those 7 victories against the spread were outright victories! The Bulldogs don't take the home dog role lightly. As for UNLV, the Rebels are on a 7-17 ATS run as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points. UNLV is certainly not used to being a favorite often in recent seasons and they are likely to struggle again in that role Friday night. As a road favorite of any size they are on a 6-11 ATS run. *10 ESPN Best Bet on FRESNO STATE Friday.

I am playing on UCLA (@ Stanford) as my *10 Pac-12 Game of the Week Thursday @ 10:30 ET - Big revenge spot for the Bruins. UCLA was up 10-7 in the 2nd quarter of last season's match-up but then Stanford's defense rose the occasion and the Cardinal went on to outscore the Bruins 24 to 0 from that point forward. UCLA was nearly a TD favorite in that game and suffered the upset at the hands of Stanford. That makes this a payback spot for the Bruins as they can return the favor by getting the outright upset as a dog of nearly a full TD in this one. From a situational (and line value) perspsective, this one sets up very nicely as the Bruins are off of an ugly loss to Arizona State before their bye week while Stanford is off of a huge win over Arizona before their bye week. UCLA has covered 6 of their last 8 times as an away dog and the Cardinal defense is not as strong as it's been in prior seasons. Stanford has allowed 24 points per game in their 3 games against Pac-12 competition this season and this will be their toughest Pac-12 test yet. *10 Pac-12 Game of the Week UCLA.

I am playing on NEW ORLEANS (vs Atlanta) as my *10 NFL Main Event Thursday @ 8:25 ET - The Falcons are undefeated on the season but certainly have been on the verge of a loss on more than one occasion this season and I believe lady luck should finally run out on this team this week. The Saints got utterly embarrassed at Philadelphia last week and New Orleans will be hungry for a bounceback on national TV in a primetime weeknight game. The Saints were victimized by turnovers last week but I do not expect that to be repeated here as Drew Brees looks to get his team right back on track. New Orleans did defeat the Cowboys two weeks ago and can get the job done in another key primetime match-up tonight. Over the past 9 years, the Saints have won 13 of their 18 meetings with Atlanta and here they are getting 3.5 points which is offering great line value to the hungry home dog. *10 NFL Main Event Thursday NEW ORLEANS.

I am playing on NORTH TEXAS (vs Western Kentucky) as my *10 Thursday Game of the Year @ 7:30 ET - North Texas has made a coaching change after their unacceptable and embarrassing start to the season. After the firing of head coach McCarney I look for the Mean Green to respond in a huge way and that begins tonight in a rare primetime affair that the host team is going to want to make the most of. North Texas is relishing the opportunity to take a shot at shutting down the red hot offense of the Hilltoppers. With Western Kentucky coming into this game rolling, the fired up Mean Green defense is ready to go into full "attack mode" in this one. These Conference USA foes used to face each other as SunBelt foes and the Mean Green held the upper hand having won 4 of the last 6 and going 4-1-1 ATS in those meetings. Western Kentucky enters this game off of a huge win over rival Middle Tennessee State last week so certainly the situational advantage is in favor of North Texas in a huge way this week. That was the first time the Hilltoppers had won at home against the rival Blue Raiders since 1989. It's nearly impossible for Western Kentucky not to be a little flat here after that huge win and, again, they're walking into a hornets' nest tonight as the Mean Green are fired up after the coaching change that followed them getting thoroughly embarrassed in their 66-7 homecoming game loss! *10 Thursday Game of the Year NORTH TEXAS.

I am playing on AUBURN (@ Kentucky) as my *10 Thursday ESPN Main Event @ 7 ET - Great value here with the Tigers bascially just needing to win the game to get the cash. Auburn has won 16 of the last 17 games between these teams. Look for another big game from RB Barber here as he had 5 TDs for Auburn in their win over San Jose State before the bye week. I also think that the way the Tigers are handling the situation with WR Duke Williams will have a positive impact on the psyche of this team. Auburn has certainly underperformed so far this season but they begin to turn the corner here now. Kentucky was fortunate to get past Eastern Kentucky in their game before the bye and they won't be so fortunate here. *10 ESPN Main Event on AUBURN.

I am playing on SAN DIEGO (vs. Pittsburgh) as my 10* MNF Main Event @ 8:30 PM ET Monday - Big win for the Chargers last week to get back to .500 on the season. They have outgained 3 of the 4 opponents they have faced this season and I look for their offense to continue rolling tonight. They've averaged over 300 yards through the air so far on the year and Pittsburgh (other than the Rams game) has given up some big yardage this season. Over the last three years the Steelers have been a road dog of 3.5 to 7 points three times. They lost all 3 games and failed to notch a single cover in those three games too. The Chargers will be going for their 4th straight cover on Monday Night Football. Pittsburgh squandered a big lead against the Ravens in thier last game and that makes them a dangerous team to back right now as no lead is safe and getting backdoored for a defeat is always a possibility when playing like that. With that said, and with the small line being offered on the Chargers here, the home team is the play in this one. The Chargers are on an 18-11-1 ATS run in home games where they are favored against a non-divisional opponent. *10 MNF Main Event on SAN DIEGO.

I am playing on SAN FRANCISCO (@ NY Giants) as my *10 Main Event on Sunday @ 8:30 PM ET - After a key divisional win (over Washington) and a big win over a team (Buffalo) that had been playing well, I look for the Giants to fall flat on Sunday. In the NFL it is so difficult for a team to play at a high level of emotion week after week after week as it is so exhausting. That said, another key that is going agianst the Giants here is that this is also a lookahead spot. New York has big divisional games on deck with the Eagles and Cowboys coming up after this game against the Niners. On the other hand, San Francisco is fully focused on the task at hand Sunday night as they have now suffered three straight losses and their offense struggled badly in the last two. On deck for the 49'ers is a non-conference match-up with Baltimore so certainly there is no distraction here for San Francisco. They are hungry for a win and struggling teams often pull together in primetime games like this as it is their chance to shine on national TV and put the recernt weeks' frustrations behind them. The Giants have been victimized by blown late leads earlier this season (at Dallas and versus Atlanta) and that means no lead is safe with this team. The 49'ers are on a 27-14 ATS run in games with a total between 42.5 and 45 points. The Giants are 1-4 straight-up and ATS in their last 5 against NFC West teams and, again, they have some key NFC East battles up ahead as a distraction here. *10 Main Event on SAN FRANCISCO Sunday.

I am playing on BALTIMORE (vs Cleveland) as my *10 Situational Game of the Year on Sunday @ 1 PM ET - The Ravens have extra rest here and come in riding an emotional high after their come from behind win over the Steelers in Thurday night action. As for the Browns, they are off of a deflating loss to the Chargers and the fact they traveled to the West Coast for that game also leads to more value here for Baltimore. From a situational perspective, the Browns off of a deflating road loss on the West Coast combined with the Ravens spirits being buoyed by a huge win over the divsion rival Steelers last Thursday sets this one up very nicely. The Browns have allowed at least 30 points in each of their two road games this season. The Ravens are averging 27 points per game in their last 3 games. Baltimore is 9-3 ATS when off of a divisional game including 6-1 ATS when off of a divisional win. Cleveland is just 4-14 straight-up in road games the last 3 seasons combined. That said, with the reasonable spread posted on this game, I am very comfortable laying the points with the Ravens here. *10 Situatiional Game of the Year on Baltimore.

I am playing on TAMPA BAY (vs Jacksonville) as my *10 Personal Favorite on Sunday @ 1 PM ET - The Buccaneers lost last week despite a 411 to 244 yardage edge against the Panthers. As you would expect, it was the "turnover bug" that was the difference maiker there. The key is that the unusual result last week helps to offer nice line value this week with Tampa Bay. The Bucs were fully capable of putting up big numbers against a solid Carolina team last week but the scoreboard did not reflect the domination on the field. That has helped keep this line down lower than it should be against Jacksonville on Sunday. Tampa Bay should crush the Jags. Jacksonville is in a tough spot here as they play their third straight road game after losing the first two by a combined score of 67 to 30. In their three losses this season the Jaguars have been held to an average of just 13 points per game. The Jags have lost 11 straight road games and are on a 1-8 ATS run in non-conference games. *10 Personal Fave on TAMPA BAY Sunday.

I am playing on ARIZONA STATE (vs Colorado) as my *10 Personal Favorite on Saturday @ 10 PM ET - Arizona State has won six straight in this series and the Sun Devils have gone 5-1 ATS in the process. Though the spread on Saturday's game may seem a bit high at first glance, those six wins came by an average margin of 27 points per game. Another blowout should be on tap for Saturday as well. Colorado was able to hang with Oregon in the first half last week but the way they got blown out in the second half is a sign of things to come here this week. Arizona State is coming off of a blowout win over UCLA and they will carry momentum from that victory (by a double digit margin as a double digit dog) right into this week's game. What the Sun Devils did against the Bruins run game last week was ultra impressive and shows just how much the ASU defense has already progressed early this season. Colorado is on a 13-32 ATS run as an away dog and I look for them to falter in that role again this week. ASU should roll big here.

I am playing on MICHIGAN STATE (@ Rutgers) as my *10 Blue Marlin on Saturday @ 8 PM ET - Big points to lay here with the Spartans but they're absolutely worth it. After letting Purdue come back last week - and only winning the game by a margin of 3 points - Michigan State learned their lesson. They need to battle hard all the way through. Just like they did the last time they faced Rutgers. That was last year and the Spartans rolled the Scarlet Knights by 42 points. Another huge victory over Rutgers should be expected here. Even though the Knights are 2-2 on the season they beat an FCS team and a very bad Kansas team. As for their other two games this season, Rutgers was outgained badly. The point is that the Scarlet Knights, and especially their subpar defense, are likely to get torched here as they take a major step up in class to face the Spartans. Even though Michigan State is 0-5 ATS this year (which actually makes for for extra line value here) the Spartans are on a 17-5 ATS runs as an away favorite and I look for them to again dominate in that role on Saturday.

I am playing on OKLAHOMA STATE (@ West Virginia) as my *10 Big 12 Game of the Year on Saturday @ 7 PM ET - West Virginia has won each of the last two meetings between these teams so this is a double revenge spot for Oklahoma State and I expect the Cowboys to make the most of it. This is a great spot to fade the Mountaineers as they are still reeling from the beating they took last week at the hands of Oklahoma. West Virginia was down by 17 by halftime and never was able to fully compete with the Sooners in the eventual loss by a margin of 20 points. That said, the Mountaineers are being overvalued in this match-up in my opinion. The Cowboys are undefeated on the season and their aerial attack was dominant last week and they now face a Mountaineers defensive unit that allowed 320 yards through the air last week. Also, from a scheduling perspective it's a big edge for the Cowboys here as West Virginia is off of the big game with Oklahoma and the Mountaineers have Baylor on deck. Oklahoma State is in a much better position as they have a bye on deck. Sealing the deal for me is the fact that the Mountaineers are just 7-13 ATS in their last 20 as a home favorite. Combining that with the significant points being offered to the Cowboys here and this is the perfect spot for a big play on Oklahoma State. 

I am playing on TEXAS (vs Oklahoma) as my *10 Rivalry GOW on Saturday @ Noon ET - In last year's Red River Rivalry the Longhorns lost despite having edges of 250 more yards and 13 more first downs than the Sooners. Texas was done in by a kickoff return for a TD and an interception returned for a TD. Of course the Horns have huge motivation here after the way they lost last season's game. That said, even though Texas has played poorly recently, these rivalry games are an entirely different "breed" of game. I expect a huge effort from the Longhorns to keep them easily within the large points being offered here. UT is off of an embarrassing effort against TCU but they catch Oklahoma off of a huge win over West Virginia. That makes for great line value here and the Longhorns haven't started a season 1-5 in nearly 60 years. Texas will scratch and claw and do everything they need to do to stay in this rivarly game. The Horns have covered 6 of the last 9 in this series while, overall, Oklahoma is on a 6-11 ATS run as a conference favorite. Huge value to the Horns in this one with the big number.

I am playing on VIRGINIA TECH (vs NC State) as my *10 Friday Main Event @ 8 PM ET Friday - Virginia Tech has won three straight in this series including the most recent meeting which featured a double digit win back in 2010. The Hokies home crowd is typically in full force in these primetime weeknight games and I look for them to be 'loud and proud' on Friday night. That said, the Wolf Pack will be battling two key elements tonight. They will have to deal with crowd noise plus the stellar defense of Virginia Tech. The Hokies have held 3 of their last 4 opponents to 276 yards or less. The Wolf Pack, on the other hand, have faced a very weak schedule and I expect their defense to be fully exposed tonight. The Hokies are off of a weak performance on offense but that was preceded by Virginia Tech gaining at least 439 yards in each of their three prior games. In fact, the Hokies amassed nearly 600 yards of offense in one of those games. This is a key ACC battle for these teams and the home field edge and the crowd noise will go a long way for the Hokies. Virginia Tech has lost two straight but, in the past two seasons, they have gone 3-1 SU when they're off two or more consecutive straight-up losses. NC State is on a 3-14 straight-up run in conference games and they are 0-7 straight-up in the month of October the past two years. 

I am playing on DETROIT (@ Seattle) as my *10 MAIN EVENT on Monday @ 8:30 PM ET - With Marshawn Lynch's hamstring injury there is extra line value here the the Lions. The Seahawks are off of a shutout win last week but October has not been their month. It's not just the long-term (29-56 ATS in October), it is the short term as well (2-6 ATS in October the past two seasons). The Seahawks are hosting a Detroit team that is hungry to get into the win column after coming up short against Denver in primetime last week. The Lions actually had more first downs than the Broncos in that game but they lost by double digits on the scoreboard. That is helping to result in this inflated line here at Seattle. Note that dogs in Monday night football are on an 8-2 ATS run on MNF and that is even with the Chiefs non-cover last week against the Packers. Since blowing that first game at San Diego early this season when Detroit let a huge lead get away, the Lions have only been outgained by an average of 45 yards in their past two games. They will also play tough and should be 'right with' Seattle all the way through this one. The Seahawks are just 2-4 ATS as a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 points the last 3 seasons and two of those four losses were straight-up defeats. The Lions could get the upset here and finally get into the win column. Certainly they appear to be well worth the points.

I am playing on NEW ORLEANS (vs Dallas) as my *10 Main Event Sunday @ 8:30 PM ET - Why is an 0-3 team favored here against a team that very nearly could be 3-0 on the season? Precisely! Don't fall for the trap in this one. The Saints deserve to be favored to say the least! New Orleans is at home, hungry, with their backs against the wall. New Orleans is facing a Dallas team that is still licking its wounds after allowing a huge come back to the Falcons last week. That was a devasting loss for the Cowboys to take and it further deteriorates the confidence level has when Brandon Weeden is their quarterback. As a starter, Weeden's struggles are well documented. Adding even more pressure for Weeden is the fact that he's not only having to replace Tony Romo here, it's the fact that he doesn't have Dez Bryant to throw to either. With injuries mounting for the Cowboys, and with the Saints about as hungry of a team as you will ever see, this is a great spot to back a short home favorite. The Saints went 11-5 at home the past two seasons and, after starting this season's home schedule with a tough loss two weeks ago, look for New Orleans to respond in powerful fashion tonight as the Saints improve to 6-1 (86%) ATS in their last 7 home games against Dallas.

I am playing on SAN FRANCISCO (vs Green Bay) as my *10 NFL Game of the Week Sunday @ 4:25 ET - Nothing went right for the 49'ers last week as four turnovers helped lead the way to a blowout loss at Arizona. Now the Niners get a chance to redeem themselves on their home field and San Francisco is known for playing much tougher at home. The 49'ers are so tough at home in fact that they have only been a home dog 3 times in the past 6 years. How did they do in those 3 games? A perfect 3-0 ATS. I look for another strong performance here at home from the Niners as they catch the Packers off of back to back big wins. Green Bay is off of a big Monday night win over Kansas City and, prior to that game, the Packers got a big double revenge win over the Seahawks. That makes this a tough spot for Green Bay to have very much left in the tank for a rare road trip west. The Niners are 6-1 SU and ATS in the month of October the past two seasons. The Packers are 0-2 SU and ATS the last two seasons when off of a Monday Night Football game. Also, Green Bay is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games against teams with a losing record. Indeed the 49'ers are a dangerous dog here. 

I am playing on ST LOUIS (@ Arizona) as my *10 NFC West GAME OF THE YEAR Sunday @ 4:25 ET - Arizona is off of a huge win last week but certainly that huge margin of victory was helped by the fact that they were the beneficiary of four turnovers in that game. The Rams are off of a loss last week but the defense impressed as they allowed just 12 points to the Steelers. The St Louis defense has been quite strong so far this season with an average of only 18 points per game allowed the last two weeks. Also, St Louis did knock off Seattle in week one this season. The Rams have proven they can play with anybody this season and this line is simply inflated due to the big success that the Cardinals have had so far this season. With a perfect 3-0 mark on the season and an average margin of victory of 25.7 points per game so far this year, Arizona is overconfident heading into this game. The Rams are a dangerous road dog that is 5-2 ATS in road games with a posted total between 42.5 and 45 points. The Cardinals have just one ATS cover the last five times they enter a match-up off of a win against a divisional foe. With their easy win over San Francisco last week, look for Arizona to get caught under-estimating the Rams and their solid defensive unit. 

I am playing on SAN DIEGO (vs Cleveland) as my *10 Blue Marlin Sunday @ 4:05 ET - The Chargers didn't just lose last week...they were embarrassed in their 31-14 loss at Minnesota. Now that San Diego is back home, look for them to take out their frustration by dominating a lesser foe. The Browns defense was scorched by Oakland last week as the Raiders piled up over 450 yards of offense. Cleveland has problems on the other side of the ball too as they've been plagued by turnovers with 7 already in the first three games. The Browns are 0-4 ATS in road games with a posted total between 42.5 and 45 points. As a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points the Chargers are 3-1 ATS the last 3 seasons and on a longterm 30-21 ATS run in that role. The Browns have the worst run defense and the league and the Chargers did outgain the Vikings by 85 yards last week so the final score was not a true reflection of the battle on the field. This is all leading to a lot of value for San Diego in this spot.

I am playing on Middle Tenn. State (vs Vanderbilt) as my *10 Personal Favorite @ 7 ET Saturday - Vanderbilt is off of an SEC loss as they fell short against Mississippi last week even though they were in the perfect spot to take advantage and pull off a huge upset. That's because the Commodores were catching the Rebels off of their big win over Alabama. Unable to take advantage of the flat spot for Ole Miss, Vandy is now in a flast spot themselves. Off of the big game versus an SEC foe and with a bye week and another SEC foe, South Carolina, on deck this is a tough spot for Vanderbilt. The Commodores are facing a Middle Tennessee State that is much hungrier than they are. The Blue Raiders look at this as a chance to make some noise with a big win over an SEC foe. Middle Tennesee has won 12 of their last 14 home games and gone 9-5 ATS in those games. Look for the Blue Raiders to take advantage of a Vandy team that has lost 6 straight road games and that has lost 6 of their last 9 games against non-SEC foes. Motivation is huge in sports and this is a classic case where only one team has it. 

I am playing on Arkansas (@ Tennessee) as my *10 Game of the Week @ 7 ET Saturday - After blowing a late lead of two touchdowns against Florida last week this is a brutally tough spot for the Volunteers. It is just simply very tough to bounce back from a game like that and Tennessee is struggling with the fact that they can not close out games. With that said, this is a nice underdog situation to grab a team that should be 'right there' with Tennessee all the way. In fact, Arkansas has a great shot at the upset here and they also have great backdoor cover potential. So, no matter how you look at it, this is one of those value spots for a dangerous underdog. The big problem for Tennessee is the aerial attack as they can't seem to get anything consistent going in terms of getting the ball downfield to their receivers on longer patterns. This is going to allow the Razorbacks to stack the box to defend against the run and I just do not see the Volunteers being able to win big here based on the current struggles in the passing game. While Arkansas also lost a tough one last week (in OT to Texas A & M) they have the much better passing attack and their run defense also has been solid this season. That is the key to the Razorbacks giving the Volunteers all they can handle in this one!

I am playing on Rice (vs Western Kentucky) as my *10 Conference USA Game of the Year @ 3:30 ET Saturday - Rice is off a crushing loss and will be looking to bounce back after getting hammered 70 to 17 by Baylor. Western Kentucky is certainly no Baylor and I feel this line is quite inflated. The Hilltoppers are off of a huge win last week by a 56-14 final but that came against an outclassed MAC foe as Miami-Ohio's struggles continued. Rice is happy to be home here but the fact they have played 3 straight road games hasn't fazed the Owls as all three games were in-state road games. Before last week's struggles against the powerful Bears, the Owls were avaraging over 500 yards of offense per game this season. The Hilltoppers defense is a glaring weakness and yet they may be overconfident this week after the annihilation of the RedHawks. That sets this up perfectly for being a great spot for the Owls to bounce back at home and immediately get back on track after the ugly loss to Baylor. Before the crushing loss to Baylor, the Owls had taken an ATS loss just 2 times in their past 13 games. Look for Rice to immediately resume the winning for their backers in this prime value spot. 

I am playing on DETROIT (vs Denver) @ 8:30 PM ET Sunday as my *10 Main Event - Perfect time to back the Lions. The public will likely be all over Denver here as they see the 2-0 Broncos taking on an 0-2 Detroit team and they see the smallish 3 point line at the game. Of course the contrarian angle for this game, and in my opinion the right angle for this game, is to back a Lions team that is ready to fight back. When a team has its back against the wall that is often the best time to back them and the hungry Lions are ready to respond in their home opener after tough back to back road losses to open up the season. The Broncos have been fortunate so far this season as they only beat the Ravens because of a game saving INT in the end zone with just seconds left and then, last week, Denver was very fortunate to escape Kansas City with a win. Off of that key divisional win, look for the Broncos to fall flat here. Denver is 2-8 ATS on artificial turf and 6-17 ATS against NFC North opponents. Detroit is looking to go to 3-0 ATS the last 3 years when they are off of a loss against a divisional rival. Look for them to bounce back off of the loss to NFC North foe Minnesota. The Lions are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 home openers. *10 Main Event on DETROIT Sunday

I am playing HOUSTON (vs Tampa Bay) as my NFL *10 Game of the Month on Sunday @ 1 ET - The Texans are 0-2 and JJ Watt and the entire front seven are fired up about rectifying that situation and, in the process, getting a ton of pressure on Jameis Winston and the entire Buccaneers backfield. From a situational standpoint, this one is set up quite nicely with the Bucs off of their big upset win over the Saints as a huge dog last week. With Houston off of a road loss at Carolina last week, and Tampa Bay off of the big road win as a sizable dog, I am expecting a blowout in this one. That front seven of Houton's defense will set the tone early in this game and the Texans offense actually has moved the ball quite well this season but they just don't have the points to show for it. Look for Houston to get those big points this week. Tampa Bay is on a 2-11 ATS run against AFC South opponents. The Texans are 40-25 ATS when they enter a game off of two or more consecutive losses. In match-ups where the total on the game is between 35.5 and 42 points, the Buccaneers are 1-11 SU and 3-9 ATS. With this line holding just under a touchdown, there is huge value on backing the Texans for the blowout win. With their backs against the wall, they will respond at home. *10 Game of the Month HOUSTON

I am playing on ARIZONA STATE (vs. USC) as my 10* Best Bet on Saturday. 
This is one of the later games on the board on Saturday, which gives you a strong play heading into the final stretch of the college football day. 
I was thrilled to see ASU getting so many points here when this line came out and I'm surprised to see the line as high as it is. The Sun Devils have absolutely feasted on USC in recent years when it comes to covering the spread. They are 8-2 against the spread over the past 10 seasons against the Trojans, which includes a 6-1 ATS stretch over the last seven years and two consecutive straight up wins. 
ASU broke Trojan hearts last year with a Hail Mary victory as 11.5-point underdogs and the Trojans have to face quarterback Mike Bercovici again this year, who is back as Arizona State's starter. He started last year's game due to an injury to regular starter Taylor Kelly and he torched USC for 510 yards and five TDs with no interceptions.
I think we saw last week what happens to USC when it faces a solid offense this season when the Trojans fell 41-31 to Stanford as 9.5-point favorites. I think we'll see a similar result this time against a Sun Devils offense that knows how to put points on the board. 

 I am playing on FLORIDA (vs. TENNESSEE) as my 10* Personal Favorite play on Saturday @ 3:30 ET

When it comes to divisional SEC power bouts, I tend to lean towards the team with the better defense and that's the case in this SEC East matchup in The Swamp. 
Florida is favored by a tiny margin and though the offense still hasn't quite figured out who its top quarterback is, the defense has established itself as one you don't want to line up against. The Gators got two of their top starting players back in the secondary after injuries and they stepped up to hold Kentucky to just nine points in a 14-9 win. 
The D-line dominated Kentucky and the Wildcats managed just 240 yards - way below their season average - and Florida won the yardage battle for the third time in three games this season. 
With home field and the better defense, I believe the Gators will shut down the Vols and earn the win and cover on Saturday.  

I am playing on INDIANAPOLIS (vs. NY Jets) as my NFL 10* Game of the Week on Monday @ 8:30 ET - While the Jets are off of a big win by a 21 point margin over the Browns in Week One, the Colts will be very hungry to bounce back here as they are off of an embarrassing loss at Buffalo where they lost to the Bills by a double digit margin. It may seem they are a little pricey in this spot with the line in the neighborhood of a -7 but the Colts actually went 8-2 ATS the past two seasons when they are a favorite in range of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Also, in home games with an over/under in the range of 45.5 to 49 points, the Colts have gone a perfect 8-0 ATS the past two seasons. The Jets are 2-4-1 ATs as a road dog of 3.5 to 7 points the past two seasons. Although the Jets won huge in week one a lot of that had to do with being the beneficiary of 5 Browns turnovers. The yardage in the Jets game weas very nearly equal so it certainly was not as impressive as the final score may have implied. As for the Colts, off of a tough defeat and ready to bounce back huge from that, I completely trust Andrew Luck and Company to have a huge game here. They lost the turnover batlle with the Bills 3-0 and that was a big difference-maker last week. INDIANAPOLIS is my NFL 10* Game of the Week

I am playing on JACKSONVILLE (vs Miami) as my 10* AFC Best Bet @ 4:05 ET Sunday.

The Dolphins did get their season off to a winning start with a road win over the Redskins last Sunday. However, Miami was outgained by nearly 100 yards in that game and their offensive performance was particularly concerning. it's tough to go on the road and win in back to back weeks and this is especially true if you don't have an offensive system that is firing on all cylinders. The Dolphins will face an angry Jaguars team that lost 20 to 9 at home against Carolina last week. That is a deceiving final score as Jacksonville was equal statistically with the Panthers and that "false final" is helping to lend some line value to the home dog Jags this week. A low-scoring battle is expected here and the Dolphins are a poor 23-35 straight-up in road games with a posted over/under in a range of 38.5 to 42 points. That is a straight-up record and here they Dolphins not only must win straight-up, Miami is being asked to cover a sizable point spread on the road. I don't see that happenig. Big line value for the hungry home dog here.

10* AFC Best Bet on Jacksonville Sunday.

I am playing on the MINNESOTA VIKINGS (vs Detroit) @ 1 ET Sunday as my 10* Personal Favorite.

Detroit is a "shaken" team right now. It's hard to not have your confidence shaken after you've blown a huge lead like they did at San Diego last week. The Lions jumped out huge on the Chargers in Week One but then fell apart and blew the lead and the game. Now this is a team that will play with that in the backs of their minds right now - a team with which, therefore, no lead is truly safe. To fix all this the next week is a daunting task and this is especially true when now taking to the road and facing a division rival. The Vikings are not only a divisional foe, Minnesota is also an angry tream off of an embarrassing loss at San Francisco on Monday night football. Look for the Vikings to bounce right back as Minny has won 19 of the last 23 match-ups between these teams in Minnesota. With a low line here but high odds for the straight-up win, you can see why I like the Vikes minus the short number in this spot. Just like last week, look for the Lions pass defense to get torched. With last week's loss, the Lions are now 6-11 ATS and SU the last 2+ seasons.

10* Personal Favorite on Minnesota Vikings.

I am playing on WASHINGTON (vs St Louis) as my 10* NFC Best Bet @ 1 ET Sunday.

The Rams are off of their huge upset win over the vaunted Seattle Seahawks. I look for that to leave St Louis a little gassed and emotionally drained heading into Week Two. Making a road trip east after a huge win like that is not easy to do and they'll be walking into a hornets nest of sorts. The Redskins are fired up after their tough loss to Miami in week one. The Skins actually outgained the Dolphins by nearly 100 yards but they did themselves in with a couple of costly INTs. The Rams are 3-11-1 ATS in their last 15 road openers and their win over Seattle was also an OT win last week. Those types of victories are even tougher to come back from the following week. While the Rams are still celebrating their week one upset win, the Redskins are looking for an upset of their own here in Week Two. This is only the 2nd time in the last 4+ seasons that the Rams have been a road favorite. Look for them to struggle in that rare role.

10* NFC Best Bet on Washington Sunday.

I am playing on ARKANSAS (vs. Texas Tech) as my 10* Personal Favorite play on Saturday. 
One Arkansas headline read that the Razorbacks' "football season is over" this week after losing to Toledo last Saturday. That's pretty much how it felt after a shocking 16-12 loss as three-touchdown favorites but the good news for betting the Hogs this week is they are highly undervalued. 
I don't see Arkansas coming into another game without complete focus this season and that starts with Texas Tech on Saturday. I believe Arkansas has the defense to halt a Red Raiders squad that has to rely on high scoring to get its wins. 
The Razorbacks are allowing an average of just 69.5 rushing yards and just 191.5 passing yards through two games and I think it's going to be a shock to the system for Texas Tech. The Red Raiders are piling up an average of 642.5 yards through two games - that's not a typo - and I think the Raiders will run into major trouble as soon as that offense realizes it's not going to breeze through their play book. 
The Razorbacks are 6-0 against the spread in their last six against the Big XII and they are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a loss. 

I am playing on COLORADO STATE (vs. Colorado) as my 10* Rivalry Best of Best play on Saturday. 
Last week Colorado State was a favorite play of sharp bettors in the sports betting industry and I'm happy to take them this week. This rivalry game is typically hard fought and closely played no matter what the skill level is of these teams and I think you have to look hard at the home underdog here getting more than a field goal early in the week. 
Colorado State played well enough to deserve a win in a 23-20 OT loss to Minnesota last week and I think the Rams will be in a foul mood this week after feeling like they had one stolen. I expect the Rams to take advantage of a Buffs squad that just lost its starting left tackle Jeremy Irwin. I think that is going to leave a very vulnerable junior QB Sefo Liufau, who hasn't thrown for more than 168 yards in either of his games this year for CU. 
I am also wondering if the Buffs may face a bit of a letdown this week on the road. Last week's home win over a weak UMass team snapped a losing streak for CU that goes back to September of last year. I'm not sure they'll be able to keep tempo with a Colorado State team that is 10-1 against the spread in its last 11 non conference games and 7-1 ATS in its last eight games in September.

I am playing on UMASS (vs. Temple) as my Early Best Bet on Saturday. At first this game may look like a no brainer with Temple starting the season with two wins and covered spreads while UMass got smoked in its season opener. But I believe oddsmakers have made a mistake in giving the Minutemen so many points at home here and I am looking to take advantage. The Owls had the benefit of being slated as nearly touchdown underdogs in their first two games but now I think oddsmakers are going the other way by overvaluing them. A big red flag that stands out for me with Temple is that the Owls lost the yardage battle by 261 yards last week in a 34-26 win over Cincinnati. That suggests they were outplayed but still managed the win. Temple was especially outplayed with the passing game last week where they lost that battle by a staggering 346 yards. That's where I feel UMass can really take advantage with senior QB Blake Frohnapfel, who threw for a respectable 225 yards last week and one TD against one INT and UMass actually won the yardage game through the air against Colorado by 82 yards. I'm not sure the Minutemen will win this one, but I think they keep it close with their passing game with home field advantage and I am happily taking the mountain of points. 

At 7:10 ET Monday, I’m playing on ATLANTA (vs. Philadelphia) as my 10* Best Bet.

The Falcons enter a new era with head coach Dan Quinn flipping the script in Atlanta. This franchise has long been known for its offensive prowess, but Quinn has injected the Falcons with a hard-nosed defensive philosophy since coming over from Seattle, where he turned the Seahawks into one of the most feared stop units in the league. There is a major overhaul on both sides of the ball, but while the defense sharpens its teeth in the early going Atlanta can still look to QB Matt Ryan and his talented receiving corps to put some points on the board. Receiver Julio Jones is one of the very best deep threats in the NFL and Roddy White remains a productive target, with seven touchdowns last season. The Eagles enter the Monday Nighter in Year 2 under Chip Kelly, who shook things up this summer. Philadelphia has a major overhaul on offense, with Sam Bradford at QB and DeMarco Murray and Ryan Matthews at RB - all three of which are injury prone. However, it was the defense that should have gotten the bulk of the attention. The Eagles allowed 72 passing plays of 20 or more yards in 2014 – most in the league – and now face a Falcons offense that can air it out. Atlanta is getting very little respect from oddsmakers at home in a huge debut for their revamped team.

I’m playing on ATLANTA as my 10* Best Bet Monday.

At 1:00 ET Sunday, I’m playing on the HOUSTON TEXANS (vs. Kansas City) as my 10* Personal Favorite.

It’s been a rough offseason for the Houston Texans. Not only are they still shaky at quarterback, with Brian Hoyer tabbed as the starter (for now), but they lost star running back Arian Foster to a groin injury for at least a month of regular season action. And until Foster returns and Hoyer gets his feet wet (or they find a better QB), it will be on Houston’s defense to keep this team afloat. Luckily, for the Texans, they have one of the better stop units in the league, headlined by defensive juggernaut J.J. Watt. Houston and its talented defense is getting little love from the bookies in Week 1, tagged as a slim home favorite over the Kansas City Chiefs Sunday. The Texas actually improved on defense this offseason, adding mammoth nose tackle Vince Wilfork and cornerback Johnathan Joseph to go along with a healthy Brian Cushing and Jadeveon Clowney. The Chiefs had trouble scoring against average defenses last season, and will find points hard to come by in Week 1. Kansas City has played musical chairs with its offensive line this summer and comes into Week 1 with a makeshift protection against one of the nastiest pass rushes in the NFL. Houston’s defense will give the Texans offense plenty of chances to score points this Sunday. It might not be pretty in the end but the value is there with Watt & Co.

I’m playing on the Houston Texans as my 10* Personal Favorite Sunday.

At 8 ET Saturday, I’m playing on MICHIGAN STATE (vs Oregon) as my 10* Main Event.

Michigan State returns 14 starters from a solid team last year and I think Sparty will get revenge at home following a 46-27 loss to the Ducks last season. 
The Spartans should have one of the top defenses in the Big Ten and they put it on display last week when Western Michigan managed just 18 rushing yards. I don't feel Oregon is the type of team that can rely on its passing game to win and I think slowing the Ducks on the ground will be a huge factor in helping MSU win and cover here. 
The Spartans are 8-4 against the spread in their last 12 home games so they will have that advantage working for themon Saturday. They will also be facing what appears to be a sloppy defense if Oregon's Week 1 performance is any indicator. The Ducks allowed an astonishing 549 yards to FCS Eastern Washington and that kind of play won't cut it against the Spartans. 

I’m playing on MICHIGAN STATE as my 10* Main Event Saturday.

At 8 ET Saturday, I’m playing on TEXAS (vs Rice) as my 10* Personal Favorite.

After Texas got hammered 38-3 by Notre Dame on Saturday, I think we are seeing a much more favorable line this week against Rice than we would have if Texas had kept that one close. I believe it's a good time to jump on the Longhorns because they are not wasting any time in making changes to improve. 
Head coach Charlie Strong demoted his defensive coordinators early this week and promoted his receivers coach to step up and make the play calls on D. I think we'll see a different result this week against Rice as a result, which is obviously a team that isn't on Notre Dame's talent level. 
I think this Longhorns offense will also see some success against an Owls defense that is in a complete rebuilding year. The defensive line received a total personnel overhaul and I think Texas should be able to control the pace of this game at will at the line of scrimmage. The Rice starting secondary is also completely new and I expect to see Texas bust out of its offensive funk that dates back to last season. I also like that the Horns have covered the spread in five of the last six meetings. 

I’m playing on TEXAS as my 10* Personal Favorite Saturday.

At 7 ET Saturday, I’m playing on OHIO U. (vs Marshall) as my 10* Best Bet.

I was surprised to see Ohio open as an underdog for this game and then more surprised to see bettors fading the Bobcats through the week with their action at sports books. I'll be fading the early public action on this one in a game where I feel Ohio is the better team and playing on home turf, so I'll happily take the points. 
I think oddsmakers are making a little too much of Marshall's victory over Purdue last week. The Thundering Herd still have a large turnover from last season, including at QB, and I don't think one game is enough to call them experienced. Ohio returns a pile of players on both sides of the ball, perhaps most importantly QB Darrius Vick. I think Vick and the Bobcats backfield will be able to rack up some yards against this green Marshall defense that allowed 454 yards against Purdue last week.  
The home team has won and covered the last two meetings between these two teams, which includes a 34-31 win by Ohio two years ago when the Bobcats were set as 7.5-point dogs. I'm expecting a well coached and experienced Bobcats team to take advantage of a Herd defense that needs more time to jell.

I’m playing on OHIO U. as my 10* Best Bet Saturday.

At 8:30 p.m. ET Thursday, I’m playing on the NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (vs. Pittsburgh) as my 10* Main Event.

The defending Super Bowl champs already have a big win on the board and the season hasn’t even started yet. New England has star quarterback Tom Brady under center against the Pittsburgh Steelers after dodging a four-game suspension for his role in the “Deflatgate” scandal. Not that the Patriots really needed any added motivation, but we fully expect Brady, Bill Belichick and the Pats to make things personal Thursday night. New England does have some holes in the receiving corps with Brandon LaFell out and Julian Edelman nursing an ankle injury. But as long as Rob Gronkowski is on the field, Brady should be able to tear apart a soft Steelers secondary. Pittsburgh has the offense to counter – if it had all its parts. The Steelers are without versatile RB LeVeon Bell, center Maurkice Pouncey and No. 2 WR Martavis Bryant, which means New England can focus on slowing down top wideout Antonio Brown Thursday night. The Patriots are golden at Gillette Stadium, boasting a 13-5 ATS record in their last 18 home stands. They’ve also been the smart play against the Steelers, going 10-3 ATS in their last 13 head-to-head meetings.

I’m playing on New England as my 10* Main Event Thursday.

At 8:00 ET Monday, I’m playing on VIRGINIA TECH (vs. Ohio State) as my 10* Main Event.

Virginia Tech is once again standing in the way of the Ohio State Buckeyes, having dealt the defending national champs their only blemish in 2014. The Hokies, who were 10-point underdogs when they won 35-21 last fall, are now two-touchdown pups in what many are calling a revenge game for the Buckeyes. That group think has inflated this spread and will likely continue to do so as the weekend progresses, opening up serious value with Virginia Tech. While some are counting on Urban Meyer to erase last year’s loss, we see that stunner as giving the Hokies a massive boost in confidence, having beaten the national champ and holding a physiological edge in the rematch. Frank Beamer always has his defense drum tight, with eight of his 16 returning starters coming back for a stop unit that allowed just over 20 points on 343.8 yards per game. Ohio State enters this game with some turmoil, having lost WR Noah Brown for the season to injury and playing without suspended WR Corey Smith and RBs Jalin Marshall and Dontre Wilson. The Buckeyes are loaded – let’s not get that wrong – but they could be treading down the path of Florida State, which busted bankrolls week after week as the defending national champs, unable to meet the oddsmakers’ lofty expectations.

I’m playing on Virginia Tech as my 10* Main Event Monday.

At 3:00 ET Sunday, I’m playing on MARSHALL (vs. Purdue) as my 10* Roast.

The Thundering Herd host the Purdue Boilermakers on Sunday afternoon. With this line dropping to a -7 on Marshall it's definitely "go time" for backing the home favorite in this game set for battle on Sunday. The Thundering Herd have the much better passing attack in this game and I am projecting them to outgain Purdue by a full football field through the air in this one. The Thundering Herd do have a new QB that they are breaking in this season but all indicators point to him being fully prepared for this season and ready to "literally" hit the ground running in week one. Marshall wants this game badly as it's arguably the toughest team on their schedule this season and the team (and school) is fired up to host a Big Ten school on a Sunday afternoon when this is the only football game being played the entire day. The Boilermakers have lost 8 of their last 9 road openers including 7 in a row and those defeats have come by an average margin of 13 points per game. The last time these teams met was 3 years ago and Purdue won by 10 despite being outgained by nearly 100 yards. The Thundering Herd get some revenge for that defeat Sunday.

I’m playing on MARSHALL as my 10* Roast Sunday.