Sports Picks & Predictions

I’m playing on Alabama as my 10* Game of the Month.

Alabama has received an unusual amount of attention this offseason and not in the way you would think. Things are quiet in Tuscaloosa, even with the Crimson Tide sitting No. 3 in the country. Alabama will wake up the nation with a dominating win over Wisconsin in Week 1, taking on the Badgers at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas Saturday. The Tide stare down a Wisconsin team switching out head coaches again, with Paul Chryst taking over. Reports from Wisconsin’s summer sessions stated that the offense was having a tough time adjusting to Chryst’s playbook. The questions for Alabama this season revolve around its quarterback spot, but there is no doubt the Crimson Tide defense will be on par with past seasons. Nick Saban brings back eight defensive starters from last season, a squad that ranked fourth in rushing defense (102.43 yards against) and sixth in points allowed (18.4 ppg). If Alabama wasn’t on the tip of everyone’s tongue when it came to the national title conversation, the Tide will be following this one-sided win over Wisconsin in Week 1.

I’m playing on Alabama as my 10* Game of the Month Saturday.

I am playing on TEMPLE.  Last year’s 30-13 game was much closer than the score indicated and I think this year Temple gives Penn State a scare and keeps this game very close.  The Owls return most of their starters from a team last year that made huge strides and kept things to a score of 6-3 at the half at Beaver Stadium. The Owls finished the season with a .500 record and they made for a respectable bet down the final stretch of the season at 3-2 against the spread.  Temple needs to find a way to stall Penn State’s rushing game, which racked up over 250 yards in last year’s meeting and I think we’ll see that happen with all 11 starters returning from what was a top 20 defense last season.  The Owls also return seven players on the offensive line with starting experience, so I expect to see a much better passing game from quarterback P.J. Walker  this season. I think Penn State will be a little surprised in this matchup and I like the home side getting the points here.  10* Afternoon Best Bet 

I am playing on COLORADO. This marks my first 10-star play of the college football season and I think the Buffaloes get the job done against an inferior Hawaii team.  The Buffaloes have had a bit of a rough go since moving to the Pac-12 in 2011 but I think they will jump out to great start to the season, thanks mostly to the offense.  Junior quarterback Sefo Liufau returns (28 touchdowns, 15 interceptions in 2014) along with his favorite receiver Nelson Spruce, who finished tops in the Pac-12 in receptions last year. I also feel the run game should be stronger this year after a bit of a disappointing season last year.  Jim Leavitt is the new D coordinator and that should help a defense that pretty much can't get worse than 2014. It will help starting against a Mountain West opponent that many are predicting to finish near the bottom of the Mountain West Conference this season. Hawaii also failed to cover the spread in its final 10 games last year (0-8-1 ATS) and I don't even think home field can help the Warriors here. 10* Friday Feast

I am playing on NEW ENGLAND. The Colts are on a great run and I think oddsmakers have laid out a tempting line for underdog players, but I think the Patriots cover this one on home field against one of their favorite opponents. 
The Colts have been the whipping boys of the Pats recently, with New England winning the last three meetings by an average of 26 points and they covered the spread in those games by an average of more than three touchdowns (21.2 pts). 
This is a different Indianapolis team, you say? Sure, I'll admit the Colts are much improved but I still think the Patriots are the better team and they cover this weekend. 
There is a lot of talk about an improved secondary for Indianapolis, which is true but the Colts are getting too much credit for last week's game against the Broncos. Peyton Manning looked dreadful with errant, fluttering passes sailing off the mark while going 26 of 46.  
The Colts won't have any such luck against Tom Brady and New England. Brady went 33-of-50 last week while throwing for 367 yards and three TDs against what I feel is a much better defense. The Pats used trick plays, Rob Gronkowski and a host of receivers to come back and beat the Ravens. 
The problem for the Colts is they won't know what to worry about with New England when the Pats have the ball. The passing game was in top form last week but the Pats also pounded the Colts for 246 yards rushing when they met in November.
Home field (the Pats are 8-1 ATS last nine games at home vs. teams with a winning record), the Pats' versatile offense and an overrated Colts secondary are the reasons I like New England to win and cover this week. 10* Patriots

(*This line could potentially dip below -7. So it may be wise to wait to play. If waiting, keep a close eye on the movements and act accordingly.)

I am playing on DENVER. Sometimes you wonder whether a playoff bye is good for a team or not but in this case there should be no wondering for the Broncos – it was definitely a good thing. 
After having an early bye in September, the Broncos were a banged up unit with 22 players scrawled on the injury list before Denver’s season finale against Oakland. That included quarterback Peyton Manning and team leading tackler Brandon Marshall, who were back to practice this week and should be ready to go Sunday. 
For those wondering why the Broncos looked like they weren’t in top form in the closing weeks of the season, I believe they were just running out of gas. I think we’ll see a fully re-charged Denver team this week against Indianapolis, which is a huge reason I like the Broncos to cover the number. 
Julius Thomas is another player who benefitted from the rest opportunity after trying to shake an ankle injury since November. He had three touchdown receptions in the first meeting against the Colts, so his return to health is huge for the Broncos. 
Denver’s passing game in general is another reason I really like the Broncos here, not just because the Broncos had the fourth most passing yards per game and second most passing TDs in the NFL this season, but also because the Colts tend to struggle against the best passing teams.  Indianapolis went 1-4 against the top five passing offenses it faced this season and 2-3 against the spread in those games. That included a 31-24 loss to the Broncos to open the season, though Indy scraped out the cover with one point. 
I think with a rejuvenated Broncos squad on home field, Denver will be able to score enough against this defense to cover the number. Luck got hammered in his only other road playoff game of his career last year in New England (43-22) and I’m anticipating another double-digit win for the more experienced home side again this week. 10* Denver

I’m playing on the UCLA Bruins as my 10* Bowl Game of the year Friday.

The Bruins meet the Big 12’s Kansas State Wildcats in San Antonio for the Alamo Bowl on Jan. 2. Both teams come in with nine wins but the Wildcats have been a completely different team away from Manhattan this season.

Kansas State’s defense is giving up an average of 31.4 points on 484.4 yards per game on the road – compared to just 14.7 points on 269.8 yards against at home. While this is technically a neutral-site game, that two-faced trend should have UCLA’s potent offense licking its chops.

The Bruins have one of the top passers in the country in junior QB Brett Hundley, who has been the driving force behind the 22nd-ranked offense in the country (467.9 yards per game). UCLA has a balanced playbook, passing the ball on just 46.43 percent of its plays, and turning lose an underrated rushing attack that carried the ball for 4.62 yards per attempt – second in the Pac-12.

The Bruins have some very talented players on the other side of the ball, especially at linebacker. Their 3-4 defensive set allows those standouts to shine. UCLA doesn’t give up anything deep – ranked second in the conference with the fewest plays of 20-plus yards – and will be tough to move the chains on when it comes to third down. UCLA’s opponents converted on third down just 40 percent of the time – something KSU is used to doing against softer Big 12 defenses this season.

The Wildcats’ two-faced defense on the road and the Bruins' balanced scoring attack is why I’m playing on UCLA as my 10* Best of the Best Friday.

I am playing on MISSISSIPPI STATE. Bulldogs head coach Dan Mullen said if his team could pick its bowl prior to the season, the Orange Bowl would’ve been their No. 1 choice and I think we’re going to see the best effort of the season from Mississippi State in Miami.

The Bulldogs’ losses came against the top team in the country, Alabama, and against what I feel is an underrated Ole Miss team. Mississippi State could very well be in the playoff picture and I think they will be way too much for Georgia Tech in this one.

The Yellow Jackets rely on their running game in the triple option offense and though Miss State didn’t have the most incredible defensive numbers, I think the Bulldogs have the speed and size to prevent Georgia Tech from getting to the outside on them and finding their holes.  The Bulldogs only allowed 11 rushing touchdowns this season.

Teams also seem to do much better against Georgia Tech when they have the extra time to prepare. The Bees are 1-5 in bowl games under head coach Paul Johnson and they average just 14.8 points and 317.3 yards per game in those contests.

Georgia Tech's offense also enters this game without its top receiver, DeAndre Smelter, who tore his ACL and was lost for the season Nov. 29. Smelter was a great pass catcher for GT but was also a great blocker down field and is a huge loss for the Yellow Jackets.

When you put it all together, I just don’t think Georgia Tech has enough to cover against MSU. The Bulldogs own the ninth best total offense in the nation with over 500 yards per game. They can beat you on the ground, where they rank 20th in the country, and QB Dak Prescott is more than happy to air it out too, with almost 3,000 yards passing this season. Mississippi State ranks 16th in the nation in scoring offense with 37.6 points per game, which is why I will happily lay the points here. 10* New Year’s Even Personal Favorite 

I am playing on OLE MISS. I know a lot of folks are paying attention to the fireworks offense of TCU but there are a lot of reasons I like the Rebels in this one.

For starters, I think Ole Miss comes into this game in a much better frame of mind than the Horned Frogs. TCU is still licking its wounds after being left off the list of playoff-bound teams, despite closing the season by smashing Iowa State, which is what many felt it needed to do to get in. Ole Miss, on the other hand, is thrilled to be getting a New Year’s Eve bowl game after fighting its way to just three losses this season in the best conference in the country.

The Rebels are coming off  their best win of the season, a 31-17 victory over Mississippi State, in which the Rebels controlled the game from start to finish. That was a much needed boost of confidence for Ole Miss, who had struggled to three losses in four games prior to that game.

I think a little too much can be made of those losses, which is why the Rebels aren’t favored here. They lost by a combined seven points to LSU and Auburn and this is the SEC after all. The loss to Arkansas was against a much improved team that has a record that isn’t really telling the truth right now.

The Rebels own the best scoring defense in the country with a stifling 13.6 points against per game.  I typically like defense over offense and when we’re talking about the best in the nation in the best conference in the nation, this isn’t really a tough pick for me.

Ole Miss can also score with an average of over 30 points and over 440 yards per game. The Rebels have won six straight bowl games and are 4-0-1 against the spread in their last five postseason contests.

To give just one more reason I really like the Rebs here is that they’ve already played in the Georgia Dome this season, where they beat Boise State 35-13 in their season opener. They covered the 9.5-point spread in that one and I believe they’ll be 2-0 against the number in Atlanta this year by the time this game is over. 10* Best Bet

I am playing on NOTRE DAME. I like the Irish here largely because they’ve decided to change up their game plan, a much needed move after they lost their last four games to close out the regular season.

Coach Brian Kelly announced he’ll be playing both Everett Golson and Malik Zaire at QB in Nashville for the Music City Bowl. Golson was the starter for all 12 games this year and is no doubt a talented QB, but he became a turnover machine and coughed the ball up 22 times season including eight lost fumbles.

That’s just way too often to be handing the ball over to the opposition and many of those decisions came from poor decision making with Golson trying to manufacture too much under pressure or on broken plays. Zaire brings an added rushing threat and that’s good because the Irish will need to find ways to keep an LSU defense guessing. LSU ranks eighth this season in total defense.

The Tigers don’t, however, have a fabulous offense and that’s another big reason I think Notre Dame can keep this one close. The Tigers rely almost completely on running the football and own the 114th ranked passing attack in the nation.

Notre Dame doesn’t have the best defense in the country but if it can focus on one dimension, the Irish can load the box and slow LSU enough to cover the spread. The Domers possess an opportunistic secondary and they picked off 16 passes this year and may be able to get a couple more if LSU starts forcing throws.

I don’t expect this one to be the prettiest of bowl games and in those cases I tend to really like the underdog and that’s no different here, especially with the number of points Notre Dame is getting. 10* Music City Bowl Best Bet

I’m playing on the St. Louis Rams as a 10* Sunday. The Rams aren’t going to the tournament but have plenty of motivation versus the defending Super Bowl champs in the season finale.

St. Louis already has a win over Seattle this season and has covered in four of its last five meeting with the Seahawks. The Rams took a 28-26 victory at home in Week 7, getting some huge plays on special teams including a 90-yard punt return touchdown from Stedman Bailey.

Seattle has struggled to contain returners all season, allowing an average of 11.5 yards per punt and 23.9 yards per kickoff return. The Seahawks face a Rams special teams that has plenty of speed and ranks third in the NFL in punt return average and has taken two returns back to the house. St. Louis could be looking at solid starting field position on most drives, something Seattle is not used to giving away.

The Rams would love nothing more than to finish 2014 on a high note. St. Louis’ season seemed lost when QB Sam Bradford went down with an injury before the schedule started. However, the defense came together and the Rams youngsters picked up the slack on offense.

The Rams have dropped back-to-back contests and are a prideful team, especially on defense. St. Louis has been one of the most dominant pass rushes in the second half of the year. The Rams have 37 sacks, including nine in the last three games, and got to Seattle QB Russell Wilson three times in their last meeting.

St. Louis will bring the same pressure in Week 17, get Wilson on the move and tighten up the coverage down field. The Rams won’t give away anything big down field, so expect this game to be a tight, defensive grinder. That makes this big spread even harder for Seattle to cover.

The Rams ability to get gains on special teams and their defense not allowing any big strikes is why I’m playing on St. Louis as a 10* Sunday.

I’m playing on the Kansas City Chiefs as a 10* Sunday. Kansas City hosts the San Diego Chargers in the season finale. The Bolts have a clear shot at the postseason while the Chiefs need a win over San Diego and a lot of help from other teams in the playoff mix. There’s no shortage of motivation here for the home side.

Kansas City lost for the fourth time in the last five games to Pittsburgh last Sunday, putting its playoff chances in the “slim to none” category. But that won’t stop the Chiefs from going out and playing their AFC West rivals hard – at least relishing the opportunity to play postseason spoilers in Week 17. Arrowhead Stadium will be rocking for the season finale.

Kansas City already scored a win over San Diego back in Week 7, edging the Chargers 23-20 as a 3-point road underdog. The Chiefs limited San Diego QB Philip Rivers to 17-for-31 passing and 205 yards in that game, catching Rivers at a time when he was in the MVP conversation. Rivers limps into the final game of the season nursing a bad back and a chest injury.

The Chargers are ripe for a letdown after a remarkable comeback against the San Francisco 49ers last week. San Diego fell behind 28-7 and battled back to take a 38-35 overtime victory. San Diego’s defense has allowed an average of almost 27.5 points per game in the last five contests.

The rushing defense was mowed over for 355 yards against the 49ers and has allowed 184.3 yards per game in the last three outings. The Bolts face a run-heavy Chiefs playbook with two very capable rushers splitting carries. Running back Jamaal Charles and Knile Davis will see extra action with QB Alex Smith out with a lacerated spleen.

The Chiefs at home and running against a weak San Diego defense is why I’m playing on Kansas City as a 10* Sunday.

I’m playing on the Tennessee Titans as a 10* Sunday. The Titans are playing for pride in the regular season finale, getting a handful of points from the Indianapolis Colts Sunday.

The Colts are coming off a rough loss to Dallas last weekend and can’t improve their playoff standing with a win in Week 17, having already clinched home field for a Wild Card Weekend matchup next weekend. While head coach Chuck Pagano told the media he plans to play his starters, that playing time could diminish with a postseason matchup lurking the next week.

Indianapolis has won four of its last five games heading into Week 17 but has been anything but dominant in those victories, with a 2-2-1 ATS mark in that span. The Colts have been terribly careless with the football, turning the ball over 15 times in that five-game span including three giveaways in the loss to the Cowboys.

Tennessee has a respectable pass rush with 38 sacks on the season and was able to get to the quarterback four times in last Thursday’s loss to Jacksonville. The Titans can go for broke in the season finale and try to get Andrew Luck moving around in the pocket, hopefully making some mistakes. Indianapolis is going with second-year center Khaled Holmes again, so there's a glaring weakness in this Colts' protection.

The Colts have also been beaten up on the ground in recent games. They allowed Dallas to plow the road for 127 yards rushing and have given up an average of 126.3 rushing yards in the last three outings. Tennessee will attempt to control the football and pace of the game after possessing the pigskin for just 17:39 in the first meeting between these AFC South rivals. The Titans actually dominated time of possession versus Jacksonville, at 34:52, so they know how to hog the ball and milk the clock.

With the Colts focused on the postseason and not playing solid football recently, I’m playing on Tennessee as a 10* Sunday.

I am playing on NEBRASKA. I think the Cornhuskers are getting a few extra points here because their coach, Bo Pelini, was fired at the end of the year. But I see two pretty evenly matched squads here and I think that storyline is a little overvalued so I’m taking the points.

Nebraska will turn to Barney Cotton in the interim to coach the team before Mike Riley takes over after leaving Oregon State to take the job. Cotton has been coaching with the team for eight years and was previously an offensive lineman there and I think he’ll have this team inspired to beat USC. It wasn’t a graceful split between Pelini and Nebraska and several players spoke out in support of their coach on social media. I believe they’ll be determined to finish the year with a win as Pelini’s team.

The Huskers have a versatile QB in Tommy Armstrong Jr., whom I feel will give USC fits. The Trojans suffered their worst loss of the season against UCLA’s Brett Hundley, a dual-threat QB who threw for three TDs and rushed for another against USC. Armstrong passed for 2,314 yards and 19 touchdowns this year and rushed for 664 yards and five more TDs and led Nebraska to being the No. 13 scoring offense in the nation this year.  

USC can score too but what I like that the strength of the USC offense - it’s passing game - will go up against the strength of Nebraska’s defense.  USC has the 15th best passing attack in the nation but Nebraska owns the third-best passing efficiency defense in the country.

I believe oddsmakers have set this one too high and it’s definitely possible that the Huskers could win this game in their third trip to the Holiday Bowl since 2009. 10* Saturday Main Event

I am playing on ARIZONA STATE.  The Sun Devils own the higher scoring offense, they have a much shorter trip to the Sun Bowl, they play in the better conference and they’ll have the best playmaker on the field for this game. 
Arizona State averages 37 points per game, which ranks a respectable 17th in the nation and this team tends to score by airing it out. The Sun Devils toss it for 276 yards per game and rank 16th in the nation in red zone offense so once they get close, they tend to get their points. 
It’s comforting for any QB to have a running back like D.J. Foster on his squad, who is the only RB in the nation with over 1,000 rushing and over 646 receiving yards this season.  Even when Duke is able to slow down the ground assault, the Blue Devils will have Foster to contend with. 
Perhaps the biggest reason I like Arizona State though is that this team owns a playmaking defense. The numbers, in terms of points against and yards against, aren’t the best but this team comes up big when it needs to. ASU tied for the Pac-12 lead with 13 interceptions this season, which is a huge reason the Sun Devils own the sixth-best turnover margin in FBS. They also rank 24th in red zone defense, so we may see this defense bend a little but it finds a way not to break. 
Duke has a long way to travel for a very tough matchup and I don’t believe the Blue Devils have the squad to cover this number. 10* Personal Favorite

I am going with the better quarterback in this game and in this case it also happens to be one of the best in the nation in Jacoby Brissett for the Wolfpack.   Brissett is one of three quarterbacks in the nation with 20 or more passing touchdowns, 300 or more rushing yards and five interceptions or fewer. The junior also ran for three touchdowns and I think his dual threat ability will keep this UCF defense on its heels.  The Pack finished the season with three wins over their final four games and they lined bettors' pockets with four covers over their last five games. They allowed just 20 points combined in their final two games, both wins, and won the yardage battles in both those games by over 200 yards.  For UCF, this bowl game isn't just a step down from the Fiesta Bowl it played in and won last year, it's a whole flight of stairs down, and you have to wonder a little about the motivational factor. I can't help but think the Knights already reached the apex of their season when they beat ECU on a now infamous last-second Hail Mary to claim a share of the AAC title.  

NC State has shown flashes of brilliance this year – like owning a 24-7 lead over Florida State before ultimately losing that game – and I think we’ll see more of that Wolfpack team the day after Christmas in the Bitcoin St. Pete’s Bowl.  10* Best Bet

I’m playing on the Cincinnati Bengals as my 10* Main Event Monday. The final Monday Night Football of the season is shaping up to be an instant classic. The Bengals welcome the Denver Broncos to Paul Brown Stadium, fighting for their playoff lives on the NFL’s primetime stage.

Cincinnati can clinch a postseason ticket with a win at home Monday night. The Bengals have a battle with the rival Pittsburgh Steelers in the season finale, so they won’t leave anything to chance on Monday night. Cincinnati is going to be stingy on both offense and defense versus Denver.

The Bengals best chance to stop Payton Manning & Co. is to keep them on the sidelines, and their dominating run game allows them to do just that. Cincinnati has a two-headed monster on the ground in Giovanni Bernard and Jeremy Hill. The pair rushed for 227 yards on 40 carries in last weekend’s shutout of the Browns, completely controlling the pace of the game.

Cincinnati has rushed for an average of 147.3 yards in its last three games, chewing up an average of 32:14 minutes with the football. Against the Browns, the Bengals hogged the pigskin for almost 39 minutes. Denver is one of the best defenses against the run, but with Bernard and Hill – two very different style runners – keeping fresh legs on the field all game, the Bengals will wear down the Broncos front line and expose the loss of run-stuffing LB Brandon Marshall.

On defense, Cincinnati has started to round into form after an inconsistent year on that side of the ball. Factoring out a rough day against the Steelers in Week 14, the Bengals have limited each of their last four opponents to 13 or fewer points. They go up against a Denver offense that has changed faces in recent weeks.

The Broncos have turned to a shorter, more ground-geared attack. Manning hasn’t gone over 300 yards in four straight games and has completed only 14 passes in each of the past two contests. On top of that, the Broncos QB is nursing a thigh injury. The Bengals front four will get Manning moving in the pocket, testing just how tender that injury really is.

The Bengals are at home and desperate to clinch a postseason pass, with the ability to pound out the pace and limit the Broncos offense. That’s why I’m playing on Cincinnati as a 10* Main Event Monday.

I’m playing on the Miami Dolphins as my 10* Personal Favorite Sunday. The Dolphins’ playoff hopes are thinning but this game versus the Minnesota Vikings is still a huge must-win situation. Miami is at home to a team coming off a crushing defeat last Sunday.

The Vikings back into this game off a slim 16-14 loss to the Detroit Lions. The Lions took the lead late in the fourth quarter and stole what could have been Minnesota’s third straight win. It was the Vikings’ fifth road loss of the year and makes for a tough week to prepare for the Dolphins.

Run the ball and stop the run is the old adage when it comes to winning football games, and Minnesota can’t do either. The Vikings’ rushing attack has averaged 94 yards per game over the last three contests, including only 76 yards on the ground against Detroit.

Without a respectable run game, the Dolphins pass rush will be all over rookie QB Teddy Bridgewater. Miami comes into Sunday with 34 sacks and will move Bridgewater around in the pocket and force bad decisions. He’s thrown three interceptions to three touchdowns in his last two games, and has five INTs in his last five games.

Minnesota has been beaten up by the run this season. The Vikings, who have undergone a major change on defense under Mike Zimmer, are still getting gashed on the ground. Minnesota has given up an average of 142 rushing yards in its last three games and faces a Dolphins offense that can exploit that weakness and keep the Vikes’ pass rush at bay with a solid ground game.

That will open up the passing game on playaction and help QB Ryan Tannehill find his targets. The Dolphins take a conservative approach to passing the ball, but if the run is established, Tannehill can strike for deep throws to Mike Wallace and Brian Hartline.

The Dolphins needing to win to stay alive in the postseason picture and the Vikings’ letdown and shaky run game is why I’m playing on Miami as my 10* Personal Favorite Sunday.

I am playing on an ATLANTA team that I feel is playing its best football of the season. The Falcons are also a strong bet at home, while Pittsburgh’s scoring numbers show the Steelers typically play a step below their capabilities on the road more often than not this season.

The Falcons are 4-2 against the spread at home and a perfect 3-0 as a home underdog, the spot they are in against the Steelers this week. Home dogs in general have been a solid spot for bettors most of the season at 34-30-2 against the spread and an incredible 16-10 ATS over the last month (61.5 percent).

Atlanta has looked like a new team the last two weeks with a win over the Arizona Cardinals (tied for top record in the league) and a respectable 6-point loss in Green Bay against the current Super Bowl favorites on Monday night.

The Steelers are 2-3 straight up and against the spread in their last five road games and they’re scoring average drops by close to a touchdown from 27.8 to 21.7 points when they hit the road this season. I believe that may not be enough to keep up with an Atlanta passing attack that’s been on fire its last two games.

Matt Ryan has passed for a combined 736 yards and six TDs against two interceptions over his last two games while Julio Jones has been the best receiver in the NFL for two straight weeks. A Pittsburgh defense, meanwhile, has struggled to make plays this season with just 24 sacks (24th in the NFL) and eight interceptions (also 24th in the NFL).

I feel Ryan will stay in his groove this weekend against this defense and the Falcons will hold their place atop the fledgling NFC South as a team that continues on the rise. 10* Best Bet

I’m playing on the Atlanta Falcons as my 10* Super Play Monday. The Falcons are finding their form just in time for a postseason push, and ride that momentum to Lambeau Field for a Monday Night Football showdown with the Green Bay Packers.

Atlanta has won three of its last four contests, including a big statement win over the Arizona Cardinals last Sunday, pushing the Falcons back to the top of the NFC South. They put up 29 points on 500 yards against the top defense in the NFL and have enough fire power to match the Packers’ potent passing attack.

The deep ball is quickly becoming a major weapon for Atlanta, especially with receivers like Julio Jones and Roddy White burning up the turf. The Falcons scorched the Cardinals secondary with long passes last Sunday and face a less-than-intimidating Green Bay unit, which has allowed 366.8 yards per game – 25th in the NFL.

A good chunk of those yards allowed have come on the ground, where Green Bay’s opponents are marching for more than 132 yards an outing. That number could be a lot worse if not for the offense’s production putting opponents behind on the scoreboard and forcing them to abandon the run.

Atlanta is coming off its best rushing performance of the season, rumbling for 142 yards on 34 carries against Arizona. That allowed the Falcons to dominate the clock, holding on to the ball for more than 37 minutes. They have the ability to control the pace of this game, especially if the deep pass connects and opens up room for the runners.

The Packers run the risk of suffering a letdown in Week 14, coming off a huge win against the New England Patriots – a game many said was a Super Bowl preview. Green Bay has been the best first-half team in the NFL, but if they come out flat Monday, this spread is far too large to make up ground against the Falcons, who are also among the best first-half scoring teams in the league.

The Falcons’ momentum and the Packers’ letdown potential is why I’m playing on Atlanta as my 10* Super Play Monday.

I’m playing on the San Diego Chargers as my 10* Best Bet Sunday. The Bolts host the New England Patriots Sunday night, hoping to catch Tom Brady & Co. in a tough spot. New England, off a loss to Green Bay, travels across the country for this primetime game.

San Diego is quietly staying in the postseason hunt, bringing a three-game winning streak into Week 14. The Chargers edged Baltimore on the road last Sunday and have lost just once inside Qualcomm Stadium this season, going 3-3 ATS in those games.

The Bolts have the firepower to match the Patriots, putting up 24.7 points on 383.3 yards per game during that winning streak. And with the calendar turning to December, San Diego backers can only expect those numbers to go up. Quarterback Philip Rivers is one the best passers in the final month of the schedule, boasting a 30-6 career record in December.

Rivers will have the Patriots secondary on its heels with his various deep-ball threats. That should open up the underneath routes for TE Antonio Gates as well as make running room for RB Ryan Mathews, who is starting to return to form after missing most of the season with injury. The Packers were able to keep New England guessing with a balanced playbook and dominated time of possession, owning the football for 36:35. San Diego has the tools to do so Sunday.

A hot Chargers team with enough offensive pop to match the Patriots is why I’m playing on San Diego as my 10* Best Bet Sunday.

I’m playing on the Philadelphia Eagles as my 10* Personal Favorite Sunday. The Eagles are coming off a huge divisional win on Thanksgiving and host the defending Super Bowl champs, crossing the country for a showdown between a high-powered offense and a hard-nosed defense in Week 14.

Philadelphia is finally finding its footing in the ground game after struggling to pick up rushing yards all season. The Eagles dominated the Cowboys with 256 yards on the ground on Thanksgiving and have averaged 176.3 rushing yards over the last three games – tops in the NFL in that span. Running back LeSean McCoy is making his fantasy owners happy, putting up 377 total yards rushing in that three game span – that’s 37 percent of his total yards on the season.

The improvements on the ground can’t come at a better time for QB Mark Sanchez, who is right at home in Chip Kelly’s system. Since taking over the No. 1 spot following an injury to Nick Foles, Sanchez has thrown for 1,404 yards. He played perhaps his best game against Dallas last Thursday, mainly because he didn’t turn the ball over.

Hidden behind the headline the offense gets is a dominating Eagles defense. Outside of a blowout loss to Green Bay, Philadelphia has allowed an average of just under 17 points per game since shutting out the Giants back in Week 6.

The pass rush was the most impressive part of Thanksgiving’s win, putting Cowboys QB Tony Romo on his heels on nearly every snap and scoring four sacks against the top offensive line in the NFL. We've seen Seattle QB Russell Wilson struggle when his line breaks down, and Philadelphia will be able to move Wilson around and close in on him with its tremendous speed on defense.

Everything is hitting its stride for the Eagles just in time to host the defending Super Bowl champs, which is why I’m playing on Philadelphia as my 10* Personal Favorite Sunday.

I’m playing on the Jacksonville Jaguars as my 10* Divisional Best of the Best Sunday. Jacksonville is in a rare spot, bringing momentum into Sunday’s action after defeating the Giants last week. The Jaguars try to keep it rolling against the Houston Texans, who have split wins and losses in their last six games.

Jacksonville seems primed for another late-season surge after being stuck in the NFL basement all season. The Jaguars showed signs of life at this time last year, winning three straight games – two of which came against the Texans.

Houston could get caught looking ahead to another divisional road game in Indianapolis next week and has had a hard time staying consistent this season. The Texans are a dismal 2-9 ATS when coming off a victory and have covered in just three of their previous 10 games against AFC South rivals.

The Jaguars defense has logged more minute than all but two teams in the NFL, skewing their results. The Jacksonville stop unit is very aggressive, with 37 sacks heading into Week 14, and put Giants QB Eli Manning on his back four times last Sunday. The Jags will throw the kitchen sink at Houston QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, who will be hard pressed to repeat his six-touchdown performance from Week 13 – even against Jacksonville.

The Jaguars' hunger for more wins and the Texans looking ahead to the Colts is why I’m playing on Jacksonville as my 10* Divisional Best of the Best Sunday.

I am playing  on FLORIDA STATE. All the Seminoles ever seem to do is win and their winning streak is now at a legendary 28 games. I believe their streak will continue on Saturday in the ACC Championship game and they’ll grab the money at the betting window to go along with it. 
Florida State isn’t the best bet in the nation this year at just 3-9 against the spread but the defending national champion Seminoles also saw a pile of inflated spreads. It’s no coincidence that in two of the three games they covered, the spread was set at less than a touchdown (-1.5 vs. Miami and -3.5 vs. Louisville).
The number is set below a touchdown once again this Saturday against the Yellow Jackets and that bodes well for the Seminoles. The Noles have covered the spread when the number is set at less than a TD in their last five tries going back to the 2011 season. 
We all know about the clutch play of reigning Heisman Trophy winner Jameis Winston this season, but another reason I really like Florida State here is because of defensive coordinator Charles Kelly. Kelly is intimately familiar with Georgia Tech’s triple option offense after serving under Paul Johnson from 2008 to 2012. The Noles beat Citadel – the only other triple option offense they’ve faced this season – 37-12 while not allowing a rushing TD in the game. 
Florida State also ranks seventh in the nation in red zone defense while Georgia Tech ranks a lowly 90th in red zone offense, one of the key mismatches in this game that may be overlooked by many.  
Georgia Tech will also be without its top receiver this Saturday, another reason I like Florida State.  DeAndre Smelter tore his ACL last game against Georgia and will be gone for the remainder of the season. 
Smelter earned 715 yards receiving and had seven TDs this season but might be missed even more as an excellent downfield blocker. The injury is a huge blow for the Yellow Jackets and is a key reason why I see Florida State pulling away for the win and cover. 10* Conf. Championship Best Of Best - Florida State 

I am playing on TULANE. At first it may appear like Tulane doesn’t have much to play for, but this will be Senior Day for the Green Wave and all signs are pointing to a strong effort. 
"I told the kids, you want to send the seniors out the best way you can because these seniors have been awesomely outstanding," said an upbeat sounding Tulane coach Curtis Johnson at his weekly press conference.
Johnson is in transition mode at Tulane, where he’s trying to build a program of winning with a change in attitude. This young offense is still making strides and players know they are still fighting for starting spots next season. 
That means Tulane is going to be a stiffer challenge than Temple would probably like with the Owls needing a win to become bowl eligible at 5-6 this season. All the pressure sits squarely on Temple, who has scored just 32 points over its past three games while committing nine turnovers. The Owls coughed up four fumbles over that stretch and averaged just 271 yards of offense. 
Temple picked a bad time to play its worst football of the season and I’m not so sure the Owls shouldn’t be the ones getting the points in this game.  10* Best Bet

 I am playing on IOWA STATE. I feel the Cyclones are getting way too many points from oddsmakers here and it makes sense to take the Cyclones in a spot where most bettors will be shying away.  The Cyclones are the last place team in the Big 12 while TCU could manage to squeak its way into a playoff position if it has a monstrous win over Iowa State. I feel that intangible factor has added a generous helping of added points to this pointspread like an extra helping of mashed potatoes on last week’s Thanksgiving dinner plate.  The Cyclones offense is actually playing its best football of the season with 55 points over their last two games. They racked up close to 1,000 yards of offense combined in those efforts against WVU and Texas Tech and I believe they’re going to find a way to get their points again this Saturday.  TCU will score too – it always does - but I feel the Horned Frogs may lack a little bit of focus in this game and could be more concerned with winning pretty for the playoff committee than simply winning. That works in our favor here.  Iowa State has covered the last two meetings with the Horned Frogs and I believe they’ll make it a third in a row on Saturday with so many points to work with from the sportsbooks. 9* Breakfast Club  

I am playing on EAST CAROLINA. The Pirates have the benefit of playing on home field on Senior Night for this nationally televised contest on ESPN and I think the crowd will help ECU maintain its perfect record on home soil this season. 
The Pirates are 5-0 at Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium this year and they’ve won by an average of 22 points against FBS opponents at home and by no fewer than 10 in any of those games. The AAC’s best offense plays even better at home than overall this year, where ECU averages over 600 yards of offense including over 400 yards passing. The Pirates also average nearly nine more points at home (46.4) than when you throw their road games into the mix (37.8). 
UCF, meanwhile, has a sputtering offense on the road this season where it averages just 312 yards and 18 points per game. The Knights scored 27.8 points per game on the season overall and when you compare those numbers  to their road scoring, it’s not much of a surprise their only two conference losses came away from home this season. 
UCF has the best defense in the AAC but in this case I think offense will prevail. Senior quarterback Shane Carden  ranks third in the nation in passing yards per game and will be motivated to finish an outstanding career at ECU in style. 10* Thursday Night Main Event 

I’m playing on the New York Jets as my 10* Best Bet Monday. The Jets are back home in the Meadowlands after a bad loss to Buffalo last Monday, hosting a Miami Dolphins team playing its third road game in the past four weeks for another Monday Night primetime matchup.

The Jets hand the ball back to second-year QB Geno Smith in Week 13, after benching him for veteran passer Mike Vick four weeks ago. Smith came in against the Bills last week, completing 10 of 12 passes for 89 yards and boasted a 97.6 QB rating – his highest mark of the season.

He was terrific against Miami last season, passing for 190 yards and adding on another 44 yards and a touchdown on the ground in the regular season finale. Smith has the ability to break off big gains with his legs but often seems hesitant to do so. Knowing that the job is his until the end of the season, we expect a much more confident and comfortable Smith under center.

Miami has a solid pass defense but has shown a weakness to the run. The Dolphins allowed Denver RB C.J. Anderson have a monster day last weekend, rushing for 167 yards and a touchdown. The Broncos tallied 201 total rushing yards in that win.

The Jets have a potent ground game behind Chris Ivory and Chris Johnson, who have helped lift New York to fifth in the league in run yards per outing - 136.4 per game. They can control the ball, keep the pass rush at bay, and wear down the Fins stop unit with a smash-mouth playbook, mixing in playaction passes and some scrambles from Smith.

The Jets' offense playing loose at home against a road weary Dolphins team is why I’m playing on New York as my 10* Best Bet Monday night.

I’m playing on the Green Bay Packers as my 10* Personal Favorite Sunday. We get a possible Super Bowl preview when the Packers host the New England Patriots at Lambeau Field in Week 13. The Cheeseheads are dominant at home and will look to flex their muscle for the Green Bay faithful Sunday.

New England has defeated a who’s-who of star NFL quarterbacks in recent weeks, knocking off Jay Cutler, Peyton Manning, Andrew Luck and Matthew Stafford. However, no player is even close to performing on the same level as Aaron Rodgers right now – especially Rodgers on his own turf. Rodgers has a 138.1 QB rating inside Lambeau and has connected for 18 of his 30 touchdowns at home.

To complement Rodgers’ prowess through the air, RB Eddie Lacy is starting to pick up steam and is coming off a monster day versus Minnesota last Sunday. The bulldozing back rushed for 125 yards and a touchdowns, his first 100-yard effort in six games. Lacy will be key to controlling the pace of the game and keeping the Patriots defense honest.

New England hasn’t met a dominant rushing attack since a close call against the Jets back in mid-October. New York RB Chris Ivory, who has a similar running style as Lacy, rumbled for 107 yards and a touchdown and allowed the Jets to dominate the ball with 40:54 time of possession. In their last loss, to Kansas City on Monday Night Football in Week 4, the Pats were bullied for 207 yards on the ground and the Chiefs used up 36:27 of clock.

Green Bay will come out strong, looking to put New England on its heels. The Packers are tops in the league in first-quarter scoring, averaging 10.4 points in the first 15 minutes. New England hasn’t had to play from behind often this season and could find itself out of that comfort zone quickly Sunday.

I’m playing on the Atlanta Falcons as my 10* Best Bet Sunday. The Falcons are home to the Arizona Cardinals in Week 13 trying to stay atop the NFC South. Arizona finds itself outgunned on the road against a desperate team.

The Falcons won back-to-back games before being upended by the Cleveland Browns last weekend. Atlanta is first in the division despite a lousy record but has the offensive explosiveness to compete each week. The Falcons have a dominant passing game, ranked seventh in the NFL with 269.5 yards through the air per outing.

Atlanta will be tested against a blitz-happy Arizona defense, which thrives on pressuring the passer. However, the Falcons offensive line does a good job keeping quarterback Matt Ryan clean. Atlanta has allowed just 23 totals sacks all season and Ryan has only thrown nine interceptions.

If the Falcons can weather the storm on offense, they will be able to outgun a Cardinals attack that has mustered only 17 points in the past two weeks. With backup QB Drew Stanton under center and some missing pieces in the passing game, Arizona has totaled just 455 yards passing with two touchdowns and three interceptions in the last two contests.

The Falcons defense is at the bottom of the barrel in terms of yards allowed but this stop unit has also made big plays, with 12 interceptions on the year. Atlanta had three picks against the Browns last Sunday and two against the Panthers the week before.

A Falcons offense with plenty of pop and a defense that can take advantage of the Cardinals' QB troubles is why I’m playing on Atlanta as a 10* Best Bet.

I am playing on ALABAMA. If I were to run down all the impressive numbers the Crimson Tide possess, you’d have to clear your evening schedule, pull up a couch and get comfortable. 
To name just a few, they rank  fifth in the nation in total defense, second in rushing defense, second in scoring defense, 16th in team passing efficiency and in the top 11 in both third and fourth-down conversion percentage.  
There is a reason Bama is ranked No. 1 in the College Football Playoff Rankings. 
The only reason the Tide’s numbers on offense aren’t quite as blow-you-away as the stats on defense is because they spread the ball around so much. Auburn defensive coordinator Ellis Johnson said this week that Lane Kiffin has “a toy box full of toys” on offense and they get “everybody the ball.” 
That’s especially scary for a Tigers defense that enters the Iron Bowl after allowing 30 points or more in five straight games against FBS competition, a streak that leaves a stain so bad, it’s never been seen before in school history. 
Now they face an Alabama team that has won 15 straight games at Bryant-Denny Stadium, which ties for the nation’s longest home winning streak with Baylor. Bama is plowing the field for 42.9 points per game at home this season, but what I love even more is they are holding opponents to ridiculous 58.4 yards rushing at home. 
Auburn absolutely needs to get its run game going to have any prayer of covering, which ranks tops in the SEC with 266 yards per game. But I just don’t see that happening against Alabama. 10* Main Event - Alabama 

FLORIDA at FLORIDA STATE 
I am playing on FLORIDA STATE. Despite the criticism the Seminoles have faced for their slow starts this season, they’re winning by an average of 13.3 points per game that’s plenty to cover the spread for this week’s game against the Gators. 
Oddsmakers usually get it right in this series and the favorite has covered the spread in six of the last seven meetings. I think Florida State’s offense will simply be too much to for the Gators to handle here and we’ll see the Noles take their fourth win and cover in the last five meetings. 
Florida State brings the No. 12 passing offense into its final game of the regular season – the same one that lit up the Gators for 327 yards and three TDs through the air last year in a 37-7 victory. Florida couldn’t even manage to cover the four-touchdown spread in that game. 
On defense, the Seminoles don’t have a lot of flashy numbers to throw around but this team gets it done when it counts. They own the No. 9 red zone defense in the country, the No. 8 red zone offense and the 12th best 4th-down conversion defense. 
What I also like about the Seminoles heading into Saturday is they are still playing like they have a bone to pick. They are ranked third in the College Football Playoff Rankings, even though they are the defending national champs and undefeated, while the two teams ahead of them each have a loss on their records. 
Florida State likely also hasn’t forgotten that the last team to beat them was the Gators – two years ago. 10* Non-Conference Best of Best Florida State

I am playing on STANFORD. The Cardinal have had UCLA’s number recently with wins in the last six meetings while they covered the spread in five of those. 
All the pressure sits squarely on UCLA and the Bruins have one eye on the Pac-12 Championship Game after beating USC for the third straight year last week in a monstrous win for the school. UCLA’s sensational dual threat QB Brett Hundley proved he’s already looking ahead by indicating in an interview with Jim Rome this week he likely won’t return to UCLA for his senior season. 
Stanford is a physical team that owns the best defense by far in the Pac-12 this season and for those reasons, it is about the last team you want to see if you are looking ahead – or behind for that matter, which could be the case here. The Cardinal rank in the top 10 in the nation in total defense, passing efficiency defense and scoring defense. Only Oregon and Arizona State have scored more than 17 points against them in regulation time in Pac-12 play this season. 
The Cardinal are also feeling confident on offense after scoring 38 in a win over Cal last week. Remound Wright rushed for four touchdowns to help the Cardinal match their highest point total of the season in conference play. 
Another factor I like in what I anticipate to be a close game is Stanford owns the No. 1 punt return unit in the entire nation. With a stout defense and a strong punt return unit, the offense could be working with favorable field position against this unfocused Bruins team. 10* Best Bet – Stanford

I’m playing on the San Francisco 49ers as my 10* Game of the Week Thursday. The Niners are hitting their stride at the right time and welcome the rival Seattle Seahawks to Levis Stadium for what is the biggest game of the year for San Francisco and its new digs on Thanksgiving Day.

San Francisco brings momentum into this NFC West war, winning three in a row after taking care of the Washington Redskins last week. The 49ers defense is beginning to round into form with the return of Aldon Smith anchoring the linebacking corps.

The Niners have allowed an average of just 15.7 points over their last three, putting the clamps down on opposing passers in that span. San Francisco is limiting opponents to 209.7 yards through the air during that winning streak, posting nine sacks and seven interceptions in those games.

Seattle has four wins in its last five, suffering that lone loss to Kansas City two weeks ago, but those victories have come against lesser opponents. The Seahawks took down Carolina, New York and Oakland – who have a combined record of 7-25-1 – and then beat up Arizona, which was without its starting QB and top WR.

The Seattle offense will lean a lot on RB Marshawn Lynch Thursday but with a short week and an ailing back, the burden may be too much for Lynch to handle. He rushed for only 39 yards on 15 carries versus the Cardinals and was held out of the end zone for the second straight week. San Francisco’s defense is allowing only 92.9 yards on the ground per game.

A peaking Niners squad at home and a Seahawks team fat off of cupcake opponents is why I’m playing on San Francisco as my 10* Game of the Week Thursday.

I’m playing on the New Orleans Saints as my 10* Monday Main Event. The Saints have dropped back-to-back games inside the Superdome – an almost unheard of feat in recent seasons. New Orleans is out to stay in the division hunt in the log-jammed NFC South and host a Ravens team struggling away from Baltimore.

This Monday Night Football showdown is setting up nicely for the Saints, who play their best football at home on the primetime stage. New Orleans is 5-1 ATS in its last six Monday nighters and has outscored opponents 160-70 in its last four home Monday night games – an average difference of 22.5 points per game.

Baltimore has lost two straight road games – at Pittsburgh and Cincinnati – and is 1-3 SU away from home in its last four outside of Maryland. The Ravens defense is allowing 379.4 yards per road game – compared to just 292 yards against at home – with those gains translating into 25.6 points against – compared to only 10.6 at home.

On offense, Ravens QB Joe Flacco has faded in the second half of the schedule. He’s completed under 60 percent of his passes and has a touchdown-to-interception count of 5-5 in the last four games. Flacco has been flustered by blitz packages and will see plenty of bodies coming after him with Saints defensive coordinator Rob Ryan unleashing his dogs Monday night.

A desperate Saints squad that shines on the MNF stage and a rough road record for the Ravens is why I’m playing on New Orleans as my 10* Monday Main Event.

I’m playing on the New York Jets as a 10* Monday. It’s been a rough week for the Buffalo Bills, who lose their home-field edge thanks to a massive snow storm that pushed this AFC East showdown from Sunday to Monday in Detroit.

The weather issues in Western New York took the focus off football for the Bills, who were left up in the air about practice and game schedule until the middle of the week. Instead of having a decisive home-field advantage with the winter weather in Week 12, Buffalo is on a neutral field when it faces the Jets, who have had two weeks to prepare for this game after enjoying a bye in Week 11.

New York’s ground game will love the fast track inside Ford Field, giving solid footing to a rushing game that ranks fourth in the NFL – averaging 140.8 yards per game. New York rumbled for 150 yards in their stunning win over Pittsburgh two weeks ago, handing the ball off 36 times. The Bills gave up 125 yards on 24 carries in their loss to Miami – an average of 5.2 yards per run.

Buffalo was able to put up big passing numbers against the Jets defense in Week 8, with Kyle Orton connecting for four touchdowns. New York is eager to get a second shot at Orton, who has regressed in recent outings. He’s completed just over 58 percent of his passes and has only one touchdown in his last two games – both of them losses.

Buffalo’s bad week and the Jets rushing game enjoying a clean neutral site is why I’m playing on the New York Jets as a 10* Monday.

I’m playing on the New York Giants as my 10* Best Bet Sunday. New York is coming off a miserable showing against San Francisco, but despite Eli Manning’s five interceptions the G-Men actually had a chance to win the game in the dying minutes of the fourth quarter. The Giants stay home for this Sunday Night showdown with the Dallas Cowboys, and would love to throw a wrench in Big D’s playoff plans.

New York gave Dallas a good fight in their first meeting, never letting the Cowboys feel comfortable in that Week 7 clash in Arlington. The Giants have a decisive home edge versus Dallas Sunday night, with rain in the forecast making for some slick field conditions and temperatures dipping into the low 40s. The Cowboys have shown in the past that they’re not used to playing in the elements.

The Giants also catch the Cowboys looking ahead to next Thursday’s Thanksgiving Day showdown with the Philadelphia Eagles. That matinee meeting will go a long way in deciding the division. Dallas has a short week to prepare for that matchup, so focus could be split between Sunday night and what lies ahead on Turkey Day.

New York’s defense did a good job limiting San Francisco’s passing game in Week 11. Colin Kaepernick completed just 15 of 29 passes for 193 yards, and the Niners converted on third down just six of 14 times. The Giants are in the top half of the league in third down defense, allowing opponents to convert on just 39.53 percent of third down tries. That should stump the Dallas offense, which is among the best in the NFL at keep the chains moving, boasting a third down conversion percentage of 50.77.

A tough road spot for the Cowboys and a Giants defense looking to build off a underrated performance is why I’m playing on New York as my 10* Best Bet Sunday.

I’m playing on the Seattle Seahawks as my 10* Best of the Best Sunday. The defending Super Bowl champs don’t have time to lick their wounds after losing to the Kansas City Chiefs last Sunday. That’s a good thing for Seattle backers, as this team is chomping at the bit to get back on the field and prove they’re still top dog in the NFC against the conference-leading Arizona Cardinals.

The Cardinals offense showed just how lifeless it can be without Carson Palmer at the wheel. Arizona managed just 14 points against the Detroit Lions last week, scoring two first-quarter touchdowns and then proceeding to get shutout in the final 45 minutes. Backup Drew Stanton’s wheels wobbled late in the game with two interceptions. Seattle will focus on getting more pressure on the untested Stanton at home Sunday.

Speaking of home, the Seahawks will have the 12th Man amped for this NFC West clash. The home team has covered in 11 of the past 15 meetings between these rivals and the forecast in CenturyLink Field is calling for classic Seattle weather, rain and cold, which should make the Cardinals very uncomfortable.

The Seahawks have the ground game to wear down Arizona’s defense over the course of four quarters. Marshawn Lynch rolled over the Chiefs' stout stop unit for 124 yards but couldn’t crack the end zone, putting a damper on what could have been another huge day from Beast Mode. Lynch had 91 yards and a touchdown versus the Cardinals at home last season.

A motivated Seahawks side at home and a backup QB facing the dreaded 12th Man is why I’m playing on Seattle as my 10* Best of the Best Sunday.

I am playing on UCLA. The Bruins control their own destiny in winning their first conference championship since 1998 and I believe they’ll get the win and cover at home against USC on Saturday. 
I feel the Bruins will grab their third straight victory over USC because I believe they’re the better coached team with a better quarterback. UCLA has been beating opponents this year by however it needs to using the nation’s No. 17 overall offense to win through the air or with a sturdy rushing game, depending on what the defense gives them. 
Case in point is UCLA beat Arizona 17-7 two games ago by running the ball 59 times for 271 yards. The Bruins controlled possession and used a slower tempo than what we see normally from them. Then last week, QB Brett Hundley was back to airing it out and went 29-of-36 for 302 yards and two TD passes in a 44-30 win over Washington. 
Hundley is one of the best quarterbacks in UCLA history – not to mention in the nation this season - who can beat you with his legs or his arm and doesn’t mind changing up the game plan to get the ‘W’. He and a very solid UCLA offensive line are the reasons why the Bruins own the No. 1 red zone offense in the entire country this season. 
UCLA comes into this game off a bye week, so the Bruins are well rested and are 4-0 against the spread in their last four games coming off a bye. I don’t think the Trojans will be able to stop them and I anticipate we’ll see the Bruins earn their third straight win and cover against their city rivals. 10* Saturday Main Event

OKLAHOMA STATE at BAYLOR  I am playing on OKLAHOMA STATE. I believe oddsmakers have inflated this spread way too much for a Baylor team that’s trendy to cheer for right now against an Oklahoma State team that many are loving to criticize right now.  While the Cowboys have been underdogs this season, they haven’t been  underdogs of within two touchdowns of this week’s number and I feel they’re going to give Baylor an effort that may surprise some.  What I like is that there is no panic in the Cowboys, which is essential because head coach Mike Gundy knows many of his team’s offensive challenges come from a young offensive line that will take time to develop.  “I’m not sure anger and frustration is a positive resource for improvement,” a calm Gundy told reporters after his team’s fourth straight loss last week.  Gundy has managed to keep the focus on him this week also, which has turned some attention away from his struggling units on the field. Oklahoma State legend Boone Pickens said this week that he cheers for the Cowboys and “I don’t care who coaches ‘em”. That has everyone in Stillwater talking about an inferred snub of their coach and it means his players aren’t reading about how bad they are in every local news story.  Gundy has been a master in the past of getting his players to pull for him and I believe that’s what will happen on Saturday in a spot where  oddsmakers are being very generous with the points. 9* Saturday Shocker

I am playing on ARIZONA. The Wildcats still have hopes of winning the Pac-12 South and I like that motivator, among other things, to propel them to a win on Saturday while preventing them from looking ahead to state rival Arizona State in their season finale. 
Arizona pulled out a 27-26 win over Washington last week by the skin of its teeth and I love that the team went right back to work the next day to sort out the offensive troubles it ran into during the game. 
Head coach Rich Rodriguez hauled his QB and receivers into the film room before practice on Sunday to get the Wildcats’ normally prolific passing game straightened out. 
“It wasn’t really enjoyable for them or for me,” Rodriquez told the Airzona Daily Star this week. “I told them that my expectations are so much higher for them than anyone else’s. We owe it to each other to be as sound and efficient and clean as far as doing your assignments as best as possible.” 
I like the Wildcats to be refocused again this Saturday, especially against a Utah team they out-match statistically. Arizona brings the nation’s No. 14 passing defense to go up against the Utes’ 87th ranked passing defense, which is where I believe Arizona will really pull away in this one. 
Utah has somehow managed to cover the spread in six of its last eight games despite the fact the Utes lost the yardage battle in all eight of those games. That’s not something you see very often in pro or college football and I think the Utes’ luck runs out this Saturday against a very solid Wildcats team – especially considering Utah is giving away points this week where they were underdogs in six of their past eight games.  10* Saturday Afternoon Best Bet

I am playing on NOTRE DAME. The Irish have won and covered the spread in four straight Senior Day games and I believe they’ll make it a fifth in a row on Saturday during the school’s first game ever against Louisville. 
Notre Dame is 5-1 at home this year and the school always has the benefit of an especially electric home crowd for their final home game of the season. 
Another problem I see for the Cardinals is they’re a team that prefers to win with tough defense this year and I don’t feel they’ll be able to slow down a Notre Dame offense that has been held to fewer than 31 points only twice and fewer than 27 points just once.  The Irish have also been at their most prolific on offense over their past three games where they averaged 40 points and over 500 yards. 
If this game does turn into a high scoring affair, Louisville is going to have to try to keep up without its No. 1 quarterback, Will Gardner. Gardner was lost for the season last week to a knee injury and freshman Reggie Bonnafon will be left to man the offense. 
Bonnafon goes up against an opportunistic Irish defense that has 15 interceptions this year, which ranks 10th in the country. I won’t be surprised to see the Louisville QB cough up at least one or two picks as a freshman playing in the overwhelming atmosphere of South Bend for the first time. 
Notre Dame is 2-1 straight up and against the spread this season against ACC teams with the lone loss coming against No. 1 ranked Florida State. 10* Saturday Afternoon Personal Favorite

10* Analysis to come before 7AM on game day

I am playing on NORTH CAROLINA. Last week I successfully faded Duke by releasing a play on Virginia Tech and I believe the Blue Devils are laying too many points once again this week in their annual Tobacco Road showdown.

Besides having a dangerous offense that ranks 23rd in the nation in scoring, UNC is a team that causes turnovers and I feel that turnovers are going to be a huge factor in this game. The Tar Heels have recovered nine fumbles and picked off 11 passes this season and have forced at least one turnover in every game they’ve played.

Duke, meanwhile, is coming off its worst turnover performance of the season after coughing the ball up three times against Virginia Tech. The Blue Devils seemingly fell apart in every aspect against the Hokies including missing two field goals by a perfect field goal kicker this season and they gave up four sacks after giving up just four all season combined.

They won’t get away with more sloppy play against a UNC team that is playing its best football of the year with three wins in its last four games. The Heels also have a ton of motivation for this game. A win Thursday night would secure bowl eligibility for them and end arch rival Duke’s hopes of winning the ACC Coastal Division.  10* Thursday Best Bet - UNC  

I am playing on WEST VIRGINIA. I feel the Mountaineers are being a little undervalued here by oddsmakers Thursday night after two straight losses.

Those losses were to a Big-12 leading TCU squad on a last-second field goal and to a vastly improved Texas team that faced the Mountaineers while I believe they were facing a bit of a hangover from the TCU loss.

WVU is still a very good team despite the losses and I believe they’ll be propelled by an incredible home atmosphere on Senior Night in front of a national TV audience. The Mountaineers have used a bye week to shake off the sting of the two-game slide and to get healthy while preparing for another tough opponent.

One of the key matchups that has me liking West Virginia here is its outstanding passing game against a so-so pass defense for K-State. WVU ranks 12th in the country with 318 passing yards per game and the team has five receivers with at least 200 yards this year. One of the few weaknesses on this Wildcats team is its pass defense where it ranks 56th in the nation in passing yards allowed and 63rd in the nation in passing efficiency defense.

I expect this game to be another exciting one for West Virginia but the determining factor for me is the Mountaineers’ top strength is playing against what I feel is K-State’s biggest weakness. That adds up to what I believe is a very strong play. 10* Thursday Personal Favorite

I’m playing on the Indianapolis Colts as a 10* Sunday Night Football Main Event. Indianapolis can get some revenge on the New England Patriots at home in this marquee matchup Sunday night and also stake its claim as the team to beat in the AFC.

The Colts bowed out of the playoff last season, losing 43-22 to the Patriots at Gillette Stadium in the AFC Divisional Round this past January. Indianapolis hasn’t forgotten that loss and will be looking at Sunday as a true test of where it stands in the conference picture.

Andrew Luck hasn’t had much success against the Patriots in the past, especially when it comes to limiting his turnovers. However, both head-to-head meetings came in New England. This time around, Luck is peaking and playing inside the comfortable domed confines of Lucas Oil Stadium.

Both of these offense are going to try and chew up as much time off the clock in order to freeze out the other. And while both have the potential to dominate time of possession, the Colts have a much better running game than the Patriots do at this point. Ahmad Bradshaw is a threat to run or catch for gains and Trent Richardson can punishing opposing tacklers with his smash-mouth style of running.

A revenge-fueled Colts side dominating the football with plenty of weapons is why I’m playing on Indianapolis as a 10* Sunday Night Football Main Event.

I’m playing the St. Louis Rams as my 9* Breakfast Club Sunday. The Rams have shown a tendency to play up to their competition, hanging with the NFL’s elite in those tough games. St. Louis faces just that in Week 11, playing a Denver Broncos club taking to the road for the third straight week.

The Rams had the Arizona Cardinals on their heels last week, jumping out to a 14-10 lead before succumbing to the Cardinals defense and losing a lopsided game. However, that fight is nothing new for St. Louis, which has taken wins over NFC powers San Francisco and the defending champion Seattle Seahawks in recent weeks.

The Broncos come to St. Louis weary from the road. This will be their third straight away game, after losing at New England on Sunday night three weeks ago and rolling Oakland in the Bay Area last Sunday. Denver hasn’t been that sharp away from Mile High, suffering their two losses on the road.

The Broncos are putting up 28.2 points per road game – nearly a touchdown less than at home – and QB Peyton Manning is completing 64.5 percent of his passes in enemy territory, compared to 71.2 percent inside Sports Authority Field. Five of his seven total interceptions have come on the road as well.

He’ll go up against a Rams pass rush that has unleashed hell in the last four games after a very slow start to the year. St. Louis has 16 sacks in that span, including an eight-sack effort in the win over the 49ers three weeks ago. Pro Bowl DE Robert Quinn was held without a sack through the first five games but has erupted for six sacks in the last four contests.

A hard-nosed Rams team ramping up the pass rush versus a road-weary Broncos side is why I’m playing on St. Louis as my 9* Breakfast Club Sunday.

I’m playing on the New York Giants as my 10* Best Bet Sunday. The Giants are back home hosting a San Francisco 49ers team bound for a letdown after pulling off a come-from-behind overtime victory in New Orleans last week. On top of that, the Niners have to cross the country for this early 1 p.m. ET kickoff Sunday.

The 49ers needed some magic and help from the officials in their much-needed win over the Saints. San Francisco’s offense sputtered again late in the game, managing only three points in the second half versus New Orleans. On the year, the Niners are averaging only 6.2 points in the final two quarters – last in the NFL – including just 2.9 points per fourth quarter.

This will be San Francisco’s second straight road game, a situation that cost them a head-turning loss to the Denver Broncos in Week 7. The Niners not only deal with that schedule spot but also an early start time on the East Coast. This 1 p.m. ET kickoff is at 10 a.m. back in the Bay Area against a Giants team that has won five of the last six encounters with San Francisco, including the last two meetings in East Rutherford.

New York has its back against a wall after a loss in Seattle last week. The Giants have dropped four straight games but three of those have come away from MetLife Stadium. The G-Men are happy to be home, where they average more than five points more per game and QB Eli Manning has passed for 793 yards, six touchdowns and zero interceptions in his last three home stands.

A sputtering Niners offense making a cross-country trip to face a home-happy Giants squad is why I’m playing on New York as my 10* Best Bet Sunday.

I’m playing on the Chicago Bears as my 10* Personal Favorite Sunday. Chicago is coming off an embarrassing loss to the Packers on Sunday Night Football and desperately needs a win. Enter the Minnesota Vikings, who have struggled in recent trips to Soldier Field.

The Bears have been backed into a corner after Sunday’s beatdown at the hands of the rival Packers. They’ve lost three straight and five of their last six going back to Week 4. This Chicago team was supposed to compete for the NFC title and its running out of time to make a run at the wild card.

The Bears’ biggest problem has been their slow starts, digging an early hole that they’re unable to claw out of. After Sunday’s loss, in which Chicago allowed 42 first-half points to the Packers, the Bears have been outscored 94-7 through the first two quarters during their current three-game slide.

Luckily, for Chicago, the Vikings have been ice cold in the opening quarters, averaging just 8.1 points per first half this season. Minnesota has been slow out of the blocks even in their last two games – both wins – scoring a combined 10 points in the first halves of those outings. Overall, the Vikings offense ranks 26th in the NFL - 18.7 points per game.

Minnesota has lost five in a row in the Windy City, going back to 2009, and has managed to cover in only one of those trips. Mother Nature could be playing into those woes for the Vikings, with the forecast calling for cold and a chance of snow in Chicago Sunday.

A desperate Bears team at home taking on a slow-starting Vikings side is why I’m playing on Chicago as my 10* Personal Favorite

I am playing on ARKANSAS. Every SEC team that played the Razorbacks this season left the field wiping its brow and letting out a humongous sigh of relief. 
That’s because they know how lucky they were to come away with wins after facing this steadily improving Arkansas team that is desperately fighting to end a now 17-game SEC losing streak. And that includes a No. 1 ranked Misssissippi State squad, who escaped with a 17-10 win against the Hogs in which the Bulldogs trailed at halftime. It was the fourth time this year that Arkansas has either led or been tied in the second half of a game and went on to lose. 
“These guys never quit,” Arkansas head coach Bret Bielema told reporters this week.” I think they have shown that all year long; it's not an option in our program."
I agree and I believe we’ll see the heartbreak finally end for Arkansas on Saturday and we are fading LSU after successfully doing the same last week. The Razorbacks enter this game coming off a bye while LSU tries to shake off a devastating loss to Alabama last week in which the Tide kicked a field goal with three seconds left to send the game to overtime. 
I believe Arkansas will grind LSU down over the course of the game using its 16th nationally ranked rushing offense. The Razorbacks also rank No. 2 in the nation in time of possession and I think we’ll start to see the fatigue set in for the Tigers in the second half when I believe Arkansas will pull away. 
One final note: Arkansas is among the best bets in the nation at 7-2 against the spread and the Hogs have lost the yardage battle in a game only twice this year, by fewer than 60 yards each time.  10* Personal Favorite

I am playing on STANFORD.  The Cardinal need one more win to become bowl eligible, they are seeking revenge after losing to Utah last season, and Saturday marks their last home game of the season. 
So they have all the motivational boxes checked off but I also happen to believe they’re better than the Utes and good enough to cover the number. 
Stanford has the upper hand because of its defense, which I feel  will propel them to the convincing win. The Cardinal rank 11th in the country in rushing defense, fifth in the country in total defense, sixth in passing defense and fourth in scoring defense. 
That is the last thing Utah wants to hear right now because the Utes have lost the yardage battle in seven straight games. It’s kind of a minor miracle that the Utes managed to win four of those contests but I feel their luck runs out against Stanford this week. 
The Cardinal are coming off a bye week and have had plenty of time to study Utah’s habits. I feel they’re going to give the Utes plenty of trouble especially with a struggling Utah passing game. 
The Utes average fewer than 200 yards passing per game and have been out-gained through the air by some big margins in six of their last eight games.  It hasn’t helped that top receiver Dres Anderson was lost for the season two games ago. 
I don’t think Utah will be able to bail out with its normally stout rushing game against this suffocating defense, which is why I like the Cardinal in this afternoon Pac-12 tilt. *10 Conference GOY

I am playing on ALABAMA.  I am taking the Tide for the second straight week after successfully taking them last week over LSU. 
Bama has gone from a team to avoid after going 1-5 against the spread to start the season to 2-1 ATS over its past three games. Mississippi State, meanwhile, has been exactly the opposite after failing to cover in three straight games, though the Bulldogs continue to win games and the yardage battles in the box score. 
Keep in mind here that oddsmakers know how appealing it looks to the betting public that the No. 1 ranked team in the nation, Miss State, was given a touchdown on the opening line. For many, that will be too irresistible to pass up but I believe Alabama will pull out the cover on home field. 
The Tide continues to jell more every game on offense under offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin and that was never so evident as last game in overtime against LSU. Bama called a surprise passing play to former offensive lineman Brandon Greene, who caught the pass and plowed his way to the 1-yard line on the first play of overtime. It was the first reception of his career and gives some insight to the kind of confidence Alabama is feeling right now.  
Both teams are stacked with impressive statistics and playmakers on both sides of the ball. But I feel that defense wins tough games in the SEC and Alabama holds the edge in this game. The Tide own the No. 3 rushing defense and No. 2 scoring defense, just to point out a couple of numbers.  10* Saturday Afternoon Main Event

I am playing on CAL. The Golden Bears haven’t beating USC since 2003 and at I believe the Trojans should be nervous about this year’s game even though it is at Los Angeles Coliseum. 

The reason is Cal brings one of the best quarterbacks and overall passing games in the nation and it will face a USC secondary that is neither incredible nor entirely healthy.  

USC ranks 101st in the nation in passing yards allowed per game Freshman starting safety John Plattenburg has a Charlie horse and is expected to be a game-time decision on Thursday. Outside linebacker/safety and arguably the team’s best defensive standout, Su'a Cravens, is expected to play but he suffered an MCL sprain in the last game against Washington State. 

I feel Bears quarterback Jared Goff will be able to keep Cal in this game and maybe even give them a shot at winning it. He ranks  fourth in the nation with 3,119 passing yards and is four passing TDs away from tying a single-season record at Cal. Goff has only four interceptions compared to 10 last year and what makes him so dangerous is the way he spreads the ball around. Cal has six receivers with at least 20 catches this season. 

The Golden Bears are 4-0 against the spread on the road this season and I feel oddsmakers are being far to nice to them once again for this Pac-12 showdown. 10* Thursday Best Bet

I am playing on EAST CAROLINA. I like the Pirates to come away from Cincinnati with a win on Thursday for two main reasons. 

The first is that just about anywhere you look, the Pirates stack up better statistically. The second is that ECU is coming off one of its most baffling losses in recent school memory and I believe the Pirates will be extra hungry for a win against the Bearcats. 

There’s no real need to go through every statistic but ECU’s numbers are better than Cincy’s when you stack them up in just about every category on offense and defense. The Pirates have the No. 4 total offense and the No. 3 passing offense in the nation but the number I feel might have the biggest impact on Thursday is the Pirates’ rush defense. 

ECU’s rush defense ranks eighth in the country and allows just 96.8 yards per game. That will be key against a Cincy offense that used a run game to propel the team to a win over Tulane last week. The Bearcats had two 100-yard rushers in that contest for the first time in a game since 2003, which was a huge benefit for QB Munchie Legaux. Legaux is now the starting QB in place of Gunner Kiel, who has been bothered by a rib injury for several weeks. 

I don’t believe Legaux will have the comfort level he did against Tulane where a running game opened up the field and made passing easier. I expect ECU to stall the rush and put a tighter squeeze on executing an air assault. 

ECU is coming off a tough 20-10 loss to Temple and the baffling part is the Pirates never really threatened to win the game despite outgaining the Owls by 293 yards. Five turnovers in sloppy weather killed ECU in the end and I expect the Pirates to take better care of the ball against Cincy. 

The Pirates are 11-0 ATS following a straight up loss and they have outgained their opponents in yards in all eight of their games this season.  9* Thursday Roast 

I’m playing on the Carolina Panthers as my 10* MNF Main Event Monday. The Panthers are hungry for a win after going without a victory since early October. They clash with a Philadelphia Eagles team putting a backup QB under center against one of the NFL’s toughest defenses.

Mark Sanchez is the man in the City of Brotherly Love, whether Eagles faithful like it or not. An injury to starter Nick Foles has the former Jets QB in the spotlight. Sanchez looked brilliant at moments in relief of Foles last weekend but was picked off twice in the win over Houston.

This Chip Kelly offense is all about timing, something Sanchez and his first-team targets haven’t worked on much. Add to that poor chemistry and Carolina team that will bring pressure to put Sanchez on his heels.

The Panthers have gone up against three top teams – Green Bay, Seattle and New Orleans – the last three weeks, facing three Super Bowl winning quarterbacks in three straight losses. Carolina actually did a good job against New Orleans QB Drew Brees and takes a major step down versus Sanchez.

The Panthers have the patience and ground game to slow down the Eagles’ up-tempo attack. This rushing attack has been limited in recent games with Carolina playing from behind and forced to abandon the run at times. However, the Panthers combo of RBs DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart is finally healthy and, along with Cam Newton’s ability to scramble, should allow them to chew up the turf – and clock – icing Philadelphia’s offense on the sideline.

The Eagles’ QB issues and a Panthers team hungry for a win is why I’m playing on Carolina as my 10* MNF Main Event Monday.

I’m playing on the Buffalo Bills as my 10* Breakfast Club Sunday. Buffalo is coming off the bye week and hosts a streaking Kansas City Chiefs team that could get caught looking ahead to next week’s date with the defending Super Bowl champs.

The Bills took back-to-back wins into the bye and roll into this game at 5-3 SU, smack in the middle of the postseason wild card hunt in the AFC. Buffalo QB Kyle Orton, who took over as the starter four games ago, has had the extra week to work with his receivers and that should add some punch to this offense, which is trying to overcome injuries to the rushing corps.

Kansas City has had its own issues on offense. The Chiefs are putting up just 22.8 points per game on the road with the passing game struggling to move the chains. Away from Arrowhead, Alex Smith is managing an average of only 196 passing yards and meets a Buffalo defense among the most underrated in the league.

The Bills, under new defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz, have done a tremendous job limiting opponents’ chances. Buffalo is giving up just 326 yards per game – eighth in the league – and has forced rival offenses to settle for field goal attempts on 45 percent of their trips inside the red zone at Ralph Wilson Stadium. The Bills have been especially stingy against the run, budging for only 3.6 yards per carry – seventh lowest in the NFL – and can put the breaks on Kansas City’s ground game.

That defense could crack an unfocused Kansas City team in the mouth, with the Chiefs riding high on their current three-game streak and looking ahead to Week 11’s showdown with the Seattle Seahawks back in Arrowhead.

An underrated Bills stop unit and an improving passing game is why I’m playing on Buffalo as my 10* Breakfast Club Sunday.

Jets. 10* best bet. Analysis before game day 

I’m playing on the Detroit Lions as my 10* Personal Favorite Sunday. Detroit took a three-game winning streak into the bye week and takes on a Miami Dolphins team that isn’t as good as its own three-game winning run would lead bettors to believe.

The Lions offense is usually the squad getting the headlines but the stop unit is the talk of the town in the Motor City. Detroit ranks No. 1 in yards allowed, giving up only 290 yards per game, and has a dominating front four that is pressuring opposing passers for 23 sacks on the season. Miami has struggled with protection at times and this Lions pass rush can disrupt a Dolphins offense that is finding it form.

Not to be outdone, Detroit offense returns its top weapon in WR Calvin Johnson, who has sat out the previous three games with an ankle injury. Johnson is the lifeblood of this offense, which has struggled without him drawing defenders to his side of the field. Detroit has averaged just over 19 points since he went down. The Lions are also getting dynamic RB Reggie Bush back on the field, another weapons the Miami defense must account for.

The Dolphins come into Week 10 on a three-game tear but have taken those wins over some teams in tough situations. Miami took advantage of a reeling Bears squad with locker room issues, then beat up on the toothless Jaguars, before hosting a Chargers team that traveled cross country for an early kickoff last Sunday.

The Lions defense and its ability to pressure the passer and an offense getting its top target back is why I’m playing on Detroit as my 10* Personal Favorite Sunday.

I am playing on ALABAMA. The Crimson Tide have perhaps their best and most balanced offense we’ve seen in years, which is a little scary for LSU and confidence boosting for this pick. 
The Tide rank 11th in total offense in the nation, third in passing efficiency, 18th in scoring offense and stop me when you're getting bored. One of the less publicized elements I like here though is that Bama is one of the very best in the country at moving the chains when they need to and halting the opposition when they need to - which I feel will be huge factors in this game in what is sure to be a gritty SEC battle. Alabama ranks second in the nation in third down conversion percentage on offense and second in the nation in fourth-down conversion defense. 
Those may not seem like huge considerations normally when you're doing your handicapping, but you'll especially notice these elements Saturdaynight in Baton Rouge with a crowd that can blow out your eardrums when both sides of the betting line are desperately in need of either a stop or a first down.
Another reason I like the Tide here is LSU has been winning games lately the good ol' fashioned SEC way - by running the ball and stopping the run – which I don’t believe they’ll be able to do against Alabama. The Tigers won that way in their last game, 10-7, against Ole Miss but I feel they’ll be in trouble if they come in with the same game plan this week and expect to have success. The Tide give up a paltry 77.6 rushing yards per game and are second-best in the nation at stopping the run. 10* MAIN EVENT - ALABAMA 

I am playing on ARIZONA STATE. I like the Sun Devils here and it may not be for the reasons you might think.  Most folks think offense when they look at ASU and it’s no wonder. The Sun Devils own the No. 22 total offense in the nation and they’ve scored at least 38 points in four games this year. But I like them to beat the Domers on Saturday with defense.  Arizona State started a little more slowly than it would’ve liked on defense but the team also had to replace nine starters on defense coming into the season. Lately the Sun Devils are coming into their own and they’ve given up an average of just 15.33 points per game over their last three. They also allowed fewer than 300 yards in each of those games in quality wins over Utah, Washington and Stanford.  "I don’t think any team will score more than 20 points on us the rest of the season," said WR Jaelen Strong this week.  I think Arizona State will also be able to take advantage of a Notre Dame defense that  has gone from stellar in the early season to sloppy recently. The Irish are giving up an average of 37.7 points over their last three contests and they just lost starting linebacker Joe Schmidt for the season to an ankle injury.  10* PERSONAL FAVORITE

I am playing on SYRACUSE. Last week I played against Duke when the Blue Devils traveled to Pitt and the difference between covering that game and not was a missed 26-yard field goal by Pitt’s kicker that allowed the game to go to overtime. 
Duke is winning, but by the skin of its teeth. The Blue Devils are on a four-game winning streak and those wins have come by a measly combined four points. 
They face a Syracuse squad that isn’t getting much national publicity these days but the Orange are becoming a tidy little bet. They’ve covered three of their last four games but the lone game they didn’t cover – last week to NC State – they did manage to win the yardage battle. 
Perhaps the biggest reason I like Cuse here is that Duke’s weak spot is probably its rushing defense, where they give up over 200 yards per game. The Orange are 3-1 this season when they can produce a 100-yard rusher in a game and 0-5 when they can’t. And I believe they will against Duke on Senior Day on home field. 10* Best Bet

I am playing on GEORGIA. Any hopes the Wildcats had of Georgia overlooking them went out the window last week when the Bulldogs took a licking from Florida 38-20 with the Bulldogs favored by 11.5 points. 
The Bulldogs are simply better than Kentucky just about everywhere on the field and I don’t see the Wildcats keeping things closer than double digits on Saturday.  Georgia owns the No. 10 scoring offense in the country, the No. 21 total defense and they rank No. 2 in turnover margin. 
I don’t believe Kentucky has anything that can stop Georgia’s rushing attack, which ranks 16th nationally and piles up over 250 yards per game. The Wildcats have been sorely out-yarded in rushing in each of their past three games – all losses – and in five of their six SEC contests this year. 
If you can’t stop the run, you can’t beat Georgia. And I don’t see Kentucky stopping the run Saturday. By the way – the Cats have given up a combined 146 points over their past three games. 10* Breakfast Club 

I’m playing on the Pittsburgh Steelers as my 10* Main Event Sunday night. The Steelers have revenge on their minds versus the Baltimore Ravens and come into Week 9 playing some of the best football in the league, with perhaps the hottest quarterback under center.

Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger put up a game for the ages in a 51-34 victory over the Colts last weekend, throwing for six touchdowns and 522 yards. Big Ben is not likely to repeat that output but he’s had the hot hand, with 1,288 yards passing and 10 touchdowns to one interception in the last four games in which the Steelers are 3-1 SU and ATS.

Pittsburgh was embarrassed by Baltimore in Week 2, losing 26-6 and getting shutout of the end zone. The Steelers have covered in three of their last five head-to-head meetings with the Ravens, with a push in that span, and oddsmakers aren’t giving them much credit despite holding the home edge at Heinz Field.

Baltimore has some holes in its defense, most notably starting corner Jimmy Smith. The Ravens have done a good job against the run this season but are allowing 256 yards passing per game – 22nd in the NFL. Pittsburgh has plenty of weapons to choose from and Roethlisberger will exploit any weaknesses he finds in the pass defense.

With Pittsburgh red hot and stoked by revenge against the Ravens, I’m playing on Pittsburgh as my 10* Main Event Sunday night.

I’m playing on the Seattle Seahawks as my 10* Personal Favorite Sunday. The defending Super Bowl champs have put in three shaky performances – going 2-1 SU and 0-3 ATS – but have a chance to redeem themselves in front of the infamous 12th Man against the winless Oakland Raiders and rookie QB Derek Carr Sunday.

Enough is enough for the Seahawks, who look nothing like the team that dominated Denver in the Super Bowl last February. Seattle’s defense has been nowhere near as imposing, giving up an average of 126 rushing yards against in that three-game span. This divisional spat with the Raiders, who rank dead last in rushing yards (69.6 per game), is a great kick starter to get the Seahawks stop unit back on track.

Another hiccup in the Seattle system is the offense, which stalled out for only 13 points in a close win over Carolina last week. Running back Marshawn Lynch has been the center of ridicule, managing just under 59 yards per game in that three-game stretch. Beast Mode will look to shut those doubters up with a big day on the ground against a Oakland defense getting bullied for 130.1 rushing yards per outing – 26th in the NFL. 

Even the Mother Nature is setting up for a big day from the Seahawks. The forecast for Seattle is calling for soggy weather and temperatures dipping into the 40s – a perfect day for football by CenturyLink Field standards. 

With Seattle anxious to impress and the Raiders and their rookie passer walking into hostile territory, I’m playing on Seattle as my 10* Personal Favorite Sunday.   

I’m playing on the New England Patriots as my 10* Rivalry Best of the Best Sunday. Peyton Manning and Tom Brady open another chapter in their longstanding rivalry in Week 9. The Patriots have the home-field edge and history on their side Sunday afternoon.

Manning and Brady have been going at it for a while. This will be the 16th meeting between the two future Hall of Fame quarterbacks, with Brady and the Patriots holding a 10-5 SU and 7-6-2 ATS edge. However, historical records don’t hold much water compared to current form, and no team looks hotter than New England heading into Week 9.

After many wrote off the Pats in the early going, New England has reeled off four straight victories since losing in embarrassing fashion at Kansas City on Monday Night Football. But despite that roll, oddsmakers are still discounting New England and setting it as a rare home underdog this Sunday. Since his time with the Pats, Brady is 7-1 ATS as a home pup.

The Patriots have outscored opponents 158-87 in that four-game span. And while the offense steals a lot of the headlines – especially in this type of matchup – New England’s defense has been one of the best stop units in the league. The Patriots have the second-best pass defense in the NFL, allowing only 210.9 yards against per game, and boast eight interceptions and 10 forced fumbles. This unit checked Manning to just 150 yards passing, two touchdowns and an interception in last year’s remarkable comeback in Foxborough. 

An undervalued Patriots team with a defense stepping up for this big game is why I’m playing New England as my 10* Rivalry Best Game Of The Year.

I’m playing on the New York Jets as my 10* AFC Best of the Best Sunday. The Jets are being discounted by the oddsmakers in this road trip to face the Kansas City Chiefs, but have shown a toughness away from home this season.

New York is hoping the injection of veteran QB Michael Vick will help spark the offense in Week 9 after struggling to gain ground with second-year passer Geno Smith under center. Smith often tried too hard to be the “pass first” QB, giving up many opportunities to run the ball instead. The Jets won’t have that problem with Vick, who can still chew up big yardage with his legs. 

The threat of Vick breaking off big gains on the ground will keep the Chiefs defense on its toes, and will likely leave them to designate a linebacker to spy on the QB if Vick can do some damage with the run. That should open up some shorter underneath passes to new playmaker Percy Harvin, who can tack on yards after the catch, as well as budding TE Jace Amaro, who is currently second on the team in receiving yards.

Kansas City has done a good job stymieing the passing game this year – ranked tops in the NFL – but have been pushed around by opposing run games. On top of Vick’s ability to scramble, New York is getting great production from RB Chris Ivory. He’s found the end zone five times already and dominated the Patriots on Thursday night two weeks ago, running for 107 yards and picking up 5.1 yards per carry. 

The Chiefs allowed 171 yards to San Francisco three games ago, but haven’t faced a dominant rushing attack since. The Jets come into Week 9 with the fourth-most potent ground game, at 139.9 yards an outing. New York can control the pace of the game and keep this contest much closer than books expect.

A relentless Jets ground game and a Chiefs defense that’s been bulldozed at times this season is why I’m playing on the New York Jets as my 10* 

I’m playing on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as my 10* Breakfast Club Sunday. Tampa Bay isn’t getting much respect on the road in Ohio, despite taking on a Cleveland Browns team that has lost its offensive pace and has benefited from a light schedule.

The Buccaneers have dropped some tight games in recent weeks, suffering two overtime losses including a 19-13 defeat in the added frame against Minnesota last weekend. Tampa Bay could easily be 3-1 in its last four and this spread would look a lot different.

The Bucs butt heads with a Browns team that has watched the power from its running game go out the window. After marching through opponents to open the season, Cleveland has managed to rush for just 108 yards on 55 carries in its last two outings – an average of just 1.96 yards per run. The power outage on the ground has everything to do with the loss to star center Alex Mack, who is out with a broken leg.

Adding to Cleveland’s offensive woes is a concussion to standout TE Jordan Cameron, who is out indefinitely after suffering yet another concussion against Oakland last week. Cameron was QB Brian Hoyer’s safety net and without him and a legit run game to keep the defense honest, Hoyer could find himself under a ton of pressure from a Bucs defense that is still out to prove itself.

A hungry Tampa Bay team and a Cleveland offense limping into Week 9 is why I’m playing on Tampa Bay as my 10* Breakfast Club Sunday.  

10* Best Bet, Oklahoma State, analysis posted shortly ...

I am playing on SOUTH CAROLINA. I like the Gamecocks here Saturday as the Vols enter hostile territory in a tough SEC night game environment in Columbia. 
South Carolina had this game circled on the calendar before the season began after Tennessee upset the Gamecocks last October and prevented them from playing in the SEC championship. They won’t overlook the Vols this time around and they won’t need to look far for motivation. 
What I like about this game is that most of the Gamecocks’ problems have come on defense this season and Tennessee doesn’t exactly pose the scariest offensive threat in the SEC. The Vols rank 113th in rushing offense and it’s largely because of a disjointed O-line that has struggled to make holes and protect the quarterback this year. 
Only two teams have managed to hold the Gamecocks to fewer than 33 points this season and I am anticipating them to find the end zone early and often in this contest. The Gamecocks rank 6th in the country in first down offense and I think they’ll use that to get Tennessee on their heels from the opening drive.  10* Personal Favorite

I am playing on PITT.  I’m expecting Pittsburgh to bounce back after a rough game last week that saw them cough up four turnovers on their first six plays that led to a drubbing before they even realized what time it was. 

I expect the Panthers to be much better against a more traditional offense like Duke’s this week after facing the triple offense of Georgia Tech last week. Pitt owns the 17th ranked overall defense in the country, the sixth ranked pass defense and the 11th ranked third down conversion defense. Those are the numbers that I feel will be the deciding factors in Saturday’s game. 

Pitt boasts a force on the ground in James Conner, who leads the ACC with 1,079 yards and 14 TDs. I believe it’s a great recipe for the Panthers in a game that might see some wintry weather with cold temperatures and a possibility of rain or snow.  

Duke’s rush defense is nothing to write home about with 193 yards against per game, which I expect to be a major advantage for Pitt in controlling the pace of this contest.  10* ACC GAME OF THE YEAR

I am playing on HAWAII. This is a popular game on college Saturdays because bettors easily get caught up in either chasing losses or grabbing one more ‘W’ before NFL Sunday rolls around. It’s the ‘last call’ of the betting world on Saturdays with home games starting around 11 p.m. ET due to Hawaii’s time zone.  Despite that, I rarely offer plays on Warriors games unless I really like them and this week is one of those games.  Hawaii is getting points on home turf against a team they matchup very similarly statistically with and that’s facing the tough travel to paradise.   "Those guys play with their hair on fire," Utah State Matt Wells said this week. "They play hard, they chase the football and play with tremendous effort. I know that is something [Clune] has instilled in them and demanded out of them. I think that's very, very evident when you flip on the tape."  The Warriors will have an improving O-line to help them do that that is finally getting healthy after some early injuries to start the year. The O-line has given up just three sacks through its first three conference games, which will come in handy against a Utah State squad that is best at stopping the run.  What the Aggies aren’t so good at is getting yards when they need them. Utah State, which is seriously depleted at the QB position, ranks 118th in the country in third down conversions and nearly dead last at 124th in fourth down conversion  percentage. Utah State also ranks near the worst in the country in penalty yards per game and Hawaii has long been known to get the benefit of the doubt on penalties at Aloha Stadium.  The Warriors haven't forgotten last year's 47-10 blowout loss - they'll be looking for some payback here and will be anxious to show how much they've improved.  As always, the visiting team is in tough when traveling to Hawaii. Utah State planned to leave Thursday, giving them shorter prep time than usual to prepare for Saturday’s game.  10* Revenge GOY

I am playing on TROY. At first glance, you see the Trojans are just 1-7 straight up this season and struggling in the final year for their storied coach Larry Blakeney.  Upon closer inspection we see that Troy is 4-4 against the spread this year and all four of their covers came against winning teams. 

In short, Troy gets up for better teams and it plays down to its competition. Georgia Southern is certainly one of those better teams as the current leader of the Sun Belt Conference and I expect a big effort from the Trojans in a nationally televised Thursday night game. 

Georgia Southern relies almost entirely on its ground game to move the chains for 402 yards per game rushing. That’s about 50 yards more than any other team in the country on the ground. 

The two things I like about that are: 1. A so-so Trojans defense doesn’t have to worry much about a passing game and 2. This offense has the potential to eat a ton of time on the clock. This is the biggest spread Ga. Southern has seen all season and I see the sand falling to the bottom of the hour glass before the Eagles have a chance to cover this lofty number. 

Troy is working with two QBs right now under center but both are mobile and can improvise when needed. I like that factor heading into Thursday along with kickoff threat Chandler Worthy, who ranks 15th in the country in kickoff returns this season. He’s returned two kicks for touchdowns and if Troy can’t get its offense moving, it will likely often work from decent field position at least. 10* Best Bet

I’m playing on the Washington Redskins as my 10* Best Bet Monday. The Redskins have a chance to catch the Dallas Cowboys in a perfect letdown spot on Monday Night Football and won’t roll over for their hated divisional rival, presenting some great value against the spread. Washington has played Dallas hard in past meetings, covering the spread in seven of their last eight games.

The Cowboys come into Week 8 fat and cocky off two massive wins. Dallas stunned Seattle in CenturyLink Field two weeks ago then followed that with a one-sided win against the Giants last Sunday. With an important NFC tilt against the Cardinals on tap, Washington can also catch the Cowboys looking ahead.

The Redskins snapped a four-game skid with a win over Tennessee last Sunday. Washington is handing the ball to third-string QB Colt McCoy this Monday, with head coach Jay Gruden putting his full confidence in the former Texas star. McCoy looked great in relief of Kirk Cousins last week, completing 11 of 12 passes for 128 yards and a touchdown. Washington has dangerous weapons around McCoy in WRs Pierre Garcon and DeSean Jackson, who was a thorn in the side of the Cowboys during his tenure with the Eagles.

Washington’s defense continues to stay under the radar, despite limiting opponents to just 321.9 yards per game – sixth lowest in the NFL. The Redskins have an aggressive defensive line that will make life tough on Cowboys QB Tony Romo, who is still limited by his nagging back injury. If they can plug the running lanes and keep RB DeMarco Murray from finding daylight, it could be a long night for the Dallas offensive line.

A unfocused Dallas team and an undervalued Washington side is why I’m playing on Washington as my 10* Best Bet Monday.

I’m playing on the New Orleans Saints as my 10* Main Event Sunday. New Orleans is back home in the Superdome with a chance to make a statement in the NFC and springboard itself back into the Super Bowl conversation against the Green Bay Packers on Sunday Night Football

The Saints are kicking themselves after letting the Lions steal a win in Week 7, giving up two late touchdowns to Detroit and losing 24-23 on the road. New Orleans has its back against the wall, sitting at just 2-4 SU and ATS on the season, needing a big game on the NFL’s big stage Sunday night.

This team is a different animal at home, and has been for a long time. The Saints have covered in 36 of their previous 53 home games – 68 percent – and are a perfect 6-0 SU at home on Sunday night under head coach Sean Payton, who took over the clipboard in 2006. 

These two teams have produced some lofty scores in recent history, but the Saints could opt to exploit the Packers’ biggest weakness – the run defense – Sunday night. Green Bay is allowing 147.7 yards on the ground per game, which ranks second worst in the NFL. New Orleans lost RB Pierre Thomas last week but returns Mark Ingram and has a dangerous weapon in Khiry Robinson, who has shown his explosiveness this season. 

New Orleans defensive coordinator Rob Ryan will likely follow his brother Rex’s gameplan versus Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers. Rex Ryan’s Jets sacked Rodgers four times and limited the former MVP to a 59.5 completion percentage. Look for an aggressive pass rush from New Orleans, which was able to get three sacks on Detroit QB Matt Stafford and pick off two passes last Sunday. 

A desperate Saints squad right at home on Sunday night is why I’m playing on New Orleans as my 10* Main Event Sunday.

I’m playing on the Cincinnati Bengals as my 10* Breakfast Club Sunday. The Bengals are ripe for a rebound after a dismal showing against the Colts in Week 7 and can’t afford a loss to AFC North rivals, the Baltimore Ravens, Sunday afternoon.

Cincinnati is happy to be back home in Paul Brown Stadium, where it averages 31.3 points per game – compared to just 13.3 on the road. The Bengals actually play their next three games at home, allowing the team to relax and focus on football heading into this important Week 8 matchup. Cincinnati is a moneymaker in Cleveland, covering the spread in 13 of their last 16 home stands.

The Bengals were able to edge the Ravens on the road in Week 1, getting a tremendous game from its defense which limited Baltimore to 16 points and forced two turnovers. Cincinnati will have LB Vontaze Burfict on the field after he suffered a neck injury last week. Burfict was a dominating force in the opener against Baltimore before leaving the game with a concussion – a dramatic turning point in that Week 1 contest. 

Baltimore has picked up back-to-back wins against lesser opponents, misleading the odds for this divisional grudge match. The Ravens rolled over the hapless Buccaneers 48-17 in Week 6 and then handled the Falcons with ease, winning 29-7 last Sunday. 

Those one-sided victories came against defenses ranked 32nd and 30th respectively. And while the Bengals defense currently sits between those clubs at 31st, this stop unit has shown its teeth. Cincinnati ranks fifth in the NFL in turnover ratio, registering 10 takeaways while turning the ball over just five times.

A home-happy Bengals team and an overrated Ravens side is why I’m playing Cincinnati as my 10* Breakfast Club Sunday.

I’m playing on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as my 10* Personal Favorite Sunday. The Buccaneers are off the bye and at home to one of the few NFL teams on par with them in the NFL power ratings, the Minnesota Vikings, who are bound for a letdown after a heartbreaking loss in Week 7. 

Tampa Bay enjoyed a bye this past week, with head coach Lovie Smith tinkering with a defense that is allowing a league-worst 34 points per game. The Bucs have run some tough road in recent weeks, facing myriad of elite passers in Joe Flacco, Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger and Matt Ryan – three of which have quarterbacked Super Bowl winners. 

Tampa Bay gets a break with rookie Teddy Bridgewater under center for the Vikings. Bridgewater has only one touchdown pass to five interceptions, and doesn’t present the deep threat the Bucs have feared in recent games. Minnesota has been miserable at protecting its franchise future, allowing opponents to sack its quarterback 19 times in the past three games.

The Vikings face a familiar foe in former head coach and current Bucs defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier Sunday. Frazier, who was fired from Minnesota last December, has first-hand knowledge of the Vikings personnel and will look to exploit that inside info in Week 8. 

Minnesota comes into Week 8 already on its heels. The Vikings lost 17-16 to Buffalo Sunday on a last-second touchdown, handing the team its third straight loss. That deflating result, plus the fact Minnesota has scored 10 or fewer points in four of its seven games sets up perfect for a Tampa Bay team in need of a break.

An opportunistic Bucs team and the Vikings’ offensive woes is why I’m playing on Tampa Bay as my 10* Personal Favorite Sunday.

I am playing on TENNESSEE. You may be looking at Alabama’s win 59-0 last week – its largest margin of victory since 1979 – and wondering why I’m taking the Vols this Sunday. 

It’s actually because of that big win. I believe oddsmakers have set this line too high in anticipation of Tide supporters who will inevitably jump on Bama no matter what the line was set at after a win like that. 

I feel Tennessee’s stout defense can grind this game down to an old-fashioned SEC hit fest, leaving the spread looking way too generous for the underdog by the time the final whistle blows. The Vols own the No. 6 pass defense and the 19th overall defense in the nation. They also own the seventh ranked third down conversion defense in the land, which is an area Bama has had success this season on offense. 

The Vols will use a sold out crowd  (and an angry one thanks to Lane Kiffin) to help keep Bama off balance on those third down spots where the Tide normally keep the chains moving.  I see that leading to some promising field position and a running clock for the Vols, factors which will help them cover the number. 

Another element I really like here is that it t’s no secret Alabama is much less comfortable on the road than at home lately. The Crimson Tide have failed to cover the spread in their last four road outings.  10* Best Bet  

I am playing on OKLAHOMA STATE.  I believe the Cowboys will use a deafening home crowd at the ‘Greatest American Homecoming Celebration’ this Saturday to help propel them to a win over West Virginia. 

Oddsmakers are anticipating the public will overreact to the Cowboys’ 42-9 loss to TCU last week, which is why OK State isn’t favored by more points here. That game was the worst of the season for the Pokes and I expect them to bounce back this week. 

Part of the problem in that loss was an inability to establish a running game. Oklahoma State came into the contest hoping to establish a ground presence but was ultimately stymied by TCU’s 38th nationally ranked rush defense. This week the Cowboys face a weaker West Virginia run defense that allows 167 yards rushing per game. I believe that will help Oklahoma State set up its passing game and get back to scoring points after an off week versus TCU. 

Another factor I love about this game is that one of the key mismatches between these two teams is in the red zone. Oklahoma State owns the 15th best red zone offense in the country while West Virginia owns the 117th ranked red zone defense. I feel that will prove extra costly for a West Virginia team that is one of the absolute worst in the country in turnover margin (-1.57) ranked 123rd.  OK State - 10* Personal Favorite

I’m playing on the BRONCOS. Denver appears to have hit its stride after struggling prior to the bye week, winning handily over the Arizona Cardinals and New York Jets. Its reward: a home date with a San Francisco 49ers unit that fell asleep at the switch early on before rallying to beat St. Louis.

Led by Peyton Manning and his usual cast of characters, the Denver offense has rolled to 72 points over the past two games - and probably could have scored a lot more than that if it really wanted to. Aside from a rough three-quarter stretch in Seattle - where more than a few teams have had trouble over the years -  Manning and the Broncos have looked an awful lot like they did last season. Expect the Broncos to pick on the 49ers’ secondary, particularly since they will likely struggle to do much on the ground. 

San Francisco fell behind 14-0 early against the Rams and was fortunate to pull away, taking advantage of several St. Louis miscues. The 49ers shouldn’t expect a repeat from a Broncos side that is allowing the fourth-fewest yards per game in the NFL (318.2). Add in a decimated 49ers defensive line that will be likely be without Patrick Willis, and the Broncos are primed for a big win in prime time.

10* - SNF Game Of The Year

I’m playing on the RAIDERS. Oakland is still looking for its first outright win, but looked good in last week’s narrow loss to San Diego and remains home for a date with an Arizona Cardinals team that has struggled mightily to contain opposing pass attacks all season long.

I’m not expecting much rushing in this one; the Cardinals rank 30th in yards-per-game average (85.6) and third in fewest yards allowed (75.8) while the Raiders are averaging just 72 yards per contest on the ground. But rookie Raiders quarterback Derek Carr erupted for 282 yards and four scores against a Chargers defense that came in as one of the stingiest against the pass - and now he gets to feast on a Cards secondary allowing a league-high 309 yards per contest through the air.

Oakland is also resilient, going 7-3-1 ATS in its last 11 games after allowing 350 or more yards in its previous outing. With the Cardinals expecting to start either Carson Palmer, who chucked 13 interceptions in eight road games last season, or unproven Drew Stanton, who has completed fewer than 49 percent of his passes, I don’t have faith that the offense will score enough to make up for what could be a rough day on the Arizona D.

10* - Non-Conference Game Of The Year

I’m playing on the CHARGERS. Philip Rivers and Co. have been one of the most impressive home teams so far this season, outscoring the opposition 94-35. And while the visiting Kansas City Chiefs have looked decent in their three road outings so far in 2014, I don’t how they can match Rivers on offense - or stop him on defense.

Rivers has led the Chargers to five wins in a row, with the offense putting up 30 or more points four times in that stretch. And while that run includes victories over Jacksonville, the New York Jets and Oakland - three teams that aren’t exactly Super Bowl contenders - it kicked off with triumphs over Seattle and Buffalo. Rivers has dissected every defense he has encountered since Week 2, and the Chiefs - despite ranking seventh in opposing passing yards per game (214.4) - shouldn’t mount much resistance.

Kansas City’s running game needs to be respected - Jamaal Charles is a phenomenal talent, and his backup (Knile Davis) did terrific work in his absence. But Alex Smith and the passing game has been largely underwhelming yet again, ranked second-last in yards per game (197.4) with just eight touchdowns through five games. As good as Charles is, he can’t do it himself against a Chargers team that should challenge the 30-point plateau.

San Diego comes in 7-1 ATS in its last eight games; expect that trend to continue this week.

10* Personal Favorite

I’m playing on the JAGUARS. Jacksonville nearly pulled out its first win of the season in Tennessee last weekend, and now returns home to face a Cleveland Browns team that is giving up more than 400 yards per game. I’ll happily take the points here, even with the Jags’ offense still struggling to find its legs.

The switch from Chad Henne to Blake Bortles hasn’t yet resulted in more points on the scoreboard, but it has allowed Jacksonville to sustain longer drives and keep the beleaguered defense fresh. The Jaguars averaged just over 24 minutes of possession time in its first three games, and close to 29 minutes in three contests since. That has had a major impact on a defensive unit that has limited opponents to 33 combined points in back-to-back losses.

The Jaguars are also committed to running the ball more - and that could cause a problem for a Browns defense surrendering the most rushing yards per game in the NFL (149.6). And these aren’t elite rushing games the Browns are facing - they allow 149 yards on the ground against Tennessee, 160 versus Baltimore and 174 to New Orleans. Jacksonville hasn’t run the ball well all season - but I believe they’ll do so with plenty of success this Sunday.

10* - Best Bet

Jameis Winston (probable) and the Seminoles offense is on a three-week stretch of dominance, and that should continue unabated against a Fighting Irish team that has been solid defensively for most of the season, but inexplicably gave up 43 points at home to North Carolina last week.

The Irish are fortunate to still be unbeaten at this point, having turned the ball over nine times in the last three games. Quarterback Everett Golson has thrown four picks in his previous three contests and completed barely 50 percent of his combined passes in wins over Stanford and the Tar Heels. The Seminoles turned three Syracuse turnovers into 10 points last week, and will make Golson and Notre Dame pay for not holding on to the football.

And let’s be real: this pick is mostly about the Florida State offense, which should pick apart Notre Dame’s young, suspect secondary. The Seminoles have racked up 1,489 yards of total offense over their last three games, coinciding with Winston’s return to the lineup. They’re also 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games, and have won their last 10 contests at Doak Campbell Stadium by an average of 41.8 points. I expect Winston to play and I expect a double-digit win. 

10* - Main Event

I’m playing on OKLAHOMA STATE. The Cowboys have yet to play a bad game this season - they gave top-ranked Florida State all it could handle before falling just short in the season opener, then reeled off five straight victories while scoring more than 35 points four times. Take them as an underdog against TCU? Don’t mind if I do.

From a trends perspective, Oklahoma State has plenty going for it. It’s 21-6-1 ATS in its last 28 October games, and 7-3 ATS in its previous 10 conference tilts. The Cowboys are in the top 30 nationally in points per game, and have held opponents to 20 or fewer points in three of their last four games. Simply put, they’re one of the most balanced teams out there - not only in the Big 12, but in the NCAA.

The Horned Frogs have an impressive offence in their own right, but they’ve been put in their place on the defensive end after a strong showing against a trio of pretenders. TCU surrendered 94 points against Oklahoma and Baylor, and should face a similar challenge against quarterback Daxx Garman and a relentless Cowboys attack. And while Horned Frogs junior QB Trevone Boykin is a talent, he completed just 41-of-85 passes against the Sooners and Bears - and that won’t fly against Oklahoma State.

10* - Best Bet 

I’m playing on ALABAMA. Saturday’s matchup against visiting Texas A&M is a tale of two teams headed in opposite directions, and until I see Kenny Hill and the Aggies prove they can play four solid quarters against quality opposition, they can’t be trusted - especially in hostile Tuscaloosa.

Texas A&M’s once-formidable offense has all but disappeared over the first three quarters of its last three games, registering just 38 points over that span. Hill and the boys can’t seem to get things going until the fourth quarter - and if they wait that long against the Crimson Tide, they could find themselves down by four touchdowns - and no team comes back from that kind of deficit at Bryant-Denny Stadium. 

Alabama looked shaky at times in a loss to Ole Miss and a narrow win over Arkansas, but I’m not betting against the Tide at home. Especially not with the Aggies having surrendered 83 points over their last two games and boasting a 1-6 ATS mark in their last seven conference games. This is also Alabama’s lone home game in a six-week stretch, so you know they’re going to come out firing.

10* - Personal Favorite

I’m playing on OKLAHOMA. The Sooners come into this one ready to prove that last week’s win over Texas wasn’t a fluke, even though the numbers suggest it may have been. Oklahoma remains a contender for the Big 12 title despite struggling in back-to-back games, and recent trends suggest they should have little trouble handling visiting Kansas State on Saturday.

The Sooners have played down to the level of their competition at times over the past few years, but they’ve also shown an innate ability to get up for good teams. Oklahoma is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games against teams with winning records. And the Sooners don’t let bad games affect them moving forward, having gone 7-0 ATS in their last seven games after surrendering more than 450 yards in their previous outing. Don’t expect Oklahoma’s defensive struggles to continue through the weekend.

The Wildcats have played just one road game this season, and came nowhere near covering in that one, escaping with a 32-28 victory over Iowa State despite going in as an 11 1/2-point favorite. Kansas State boasts one of the more potent running games in the conference - averaging 4 1/2 yards per carry with 18 touchdowns - but could have fits against an Oklahoma defense limiting opponents to 3.2 yards per carry. And if the Wildcats can’t get the run game going, it could be a long day in Norman.

10* - Breakfast Club

I’m playing on the Philadelphia Eagles as my 10* Divisional Best Of Best Sunday. Philadelphia can make a statement in the NFC East with a win over the New York Giants, who have won three in a row since dropping their first two contests.

The Eagles are scoring on both sides of the ball in recent weeks, finding the end zone on blocked punts and punt returns while also scoring off an interception return. Philadelphia is getting excellent play from its special teams, especially a return unit that is giving the offense tremendous starting field position. 

The offense has needed that help in recent games. Chip Kelly’s high-octane attack has sputtered a bit, with QB Nick Foles making some costly mistakes. However, Kelly cracked down on Foles and has tinkered with his passer leading into this Sunday night game, confident he can find his form again.

The Giants defense has been able to capitalize on some friendly defensive matchups recently. New York faced Houston without RB Arian Foster, caught Washington backup Kirk Cousins in a bad place, and hosted an Atlanta team that can’t score on the road this past weekend. In the first two games of the season, the G-Men coughed up 60 combined points and will be exposed again in Philadelphia.

New York is also prone to mistakes on the offensive end, especially QB Eli Manning. While he’s been solid during the team’s winning streak, Manning threw four picks to start the season and totaled 27 interceptions last season – three of which came against the Eagles. This Philadelphia defense can turn those errors into points very quickly.

A Philadelphia team capable of scoring points on offense, defense and special teams, as well as a mistake-prone Giants side is why I’m playing on the Philadelphia Eagles as my 10* Divisional GAME OF THE MONTH Sunday.

I’m playing on the Oakland Raiders as my 10* Best Bet Sunday. The Silver and Black are under new leadership for the time being, with Dennis Allen getting the ax and fiery Tony Sporano taking over on an interim basis. The team has responded in a positive light and are a live underdog against the San Diego Chargers in Week 6.

Sporano got things started with a bang in the Bay Area, prompting his players to bury a football representing the team’s slow start to the season. By the looks of things, and reports out of practice, there’s new life in the Raiders coming into Sunday. The drills were smoother and quicker, the team seemed more focused and an importance on fundamental football has play looking sharper. 

On the other side of the field, the Chargers are scrambling to fill holes on their depth chart thanks to a rash of injuries. The rushing corps was already depleted with the losses of Ryan Mathews and Danny Woodhead, but now that fellow RB Donald Brown is dealing with a concussion the Bolts are scrambling to find capable bodies to run the football – even going as far as giving veteran Ronnie Brown another go-around. 

On top of the banged-up running game, San Diego is down to its fourth-string center after Doug Legursky was placed on IR this week. The Chargers are forced to slide rookie guard Chris Watt to center for this Sunday’s game, throwing a major wrench in the Bolts offense. 

The Raiders defense, which is expected to pick up the pace with Sporano making the calls, will test that weakness in the Bolts’ offensive line. Without a running game to keep Oakland honest, expect plenty of blitz packages from the Raiders as they try to rush QB Philip Rivers in the pocket. Points may be hard to come by, even for this Chargers attack that has seemed so potent at times.

A revitalized Oakland side and a Chargers teams frantically trying to fill holes is why I’m playing on the Oakland Raiders as my 10* Best Bet.

I am playing on LSU. The Gators are in a bit of a mess entering this week while LSU will be hungry to rebound after a humbling loss to Auburn last week.

Florida’s offense has been nothing to brag about amid quarterback struggles this season. But last week it appeared for a fleeting moment like they had a solution. Backup QB Treon Harris came off the bench and was just efficient enough to propel the Gators to a 10-9 win over Tennessee.

The bad news for Florida is the team has placed him on interim suspension following sexual assault allegations against Harris that came on Monday. The incident allegedly took place in the wee hours of Sunday morning and the Gators have been dealing with all the distractions and the media circus that come with that kind of controversy.

It means Florida will return to Jeff Driskel, who couldn’t find a Gator in the Everglades right now. He hasn’t been able to throw for even 100 yards in each of his last two games with one measly touchdown pass and five interceptions combined in those games.

LSU has been having its own QB issues but the Tigers couldn’t have caught Florida at a better time here. LSU is also 4-1 against the spread its last five games coming off a straight up loss.

Coach Les Miles knows how to get his team to rebound and I strongly believe LSU will take down the Gators in the Swamp. 10* Personal Favorite

I am playing on MICHIGAN. The Wolverines just might come into this game with the biggest home edge in all of college football this week. 

This will be the Wolverines’  first Big Ten night game in Michigan Stadium’s 88-year history and they’ll be playing it with huge revenge motivation after Penn State won and covered the last five meetings in the series. 

This is only the third home night game in Michigan’s history and the school set an attendance record each of the previous two occurences. I believe a hostile crowd of over 110,000 will make life miserable for Penn State on Saturday and the Nittany Lions will fall short in an old fashioned style Big Ten battle where two great defenses will gut it out. 

There isn’t much to separate these two on defense but where Michigan has a key advantage is the Wolverines are 15-for-15 in red zone opportunities this year. That makes them only one of five schools in the country to be perfect in that category. In a game where I anticipate limited red zone opportunities, I like Michigan to fulfill what the home crowd is looking for on Saturday.   10* Big Ten GOM

I am playing on NORTH CAROLINA. I believe there is a spot here to fade Notre Dame at a time where this very public Irish team is being lauded in the media and visions of national championships and Heisman Trophies are dancing in the heads of Irish supporters.

The Tar Heels are 0-5 against the spread this year, but I see a quickly improving team that’s getting a generous helping of points on Saturday. Their weakness has been on defense – mainly its youth - where they brought an inexperienced batch of starters to the field.

Things are starting jell now and last week they allowed the fewest number of yards since their season opening victory against Liberty. The Heels held Virginia Tech to a respectable 357 yards and eventually it was the offense’s three turnovers in bad spots, all of which led to touchdowns, that doomed UNC.

I believe UNC will take better care of the ball this week and throw some things at Notre Dame that will keep the Irish guessing. The Heels say they’ll stick with a dual quarterback rotation of Marquise Williams and Mitch Trubisky. They’ll use the two to continue to run a no-huddle, up-tempo offense that aims to keep the Irish unsettled on defense and I believe that will ultimately help them cover this big number. 10* Best Bet

I am playing on NEW ENGLAND. The betting public could barely wait for oddsmakers to release this line before they started throwing money down on the Bengals for this Sunday night matchup. I believe they’re throwing money down the drain and here’s why.

Let’s keep in mind that the Patriots are 2-2 this season, not 0-4 like the recent dooms day media coverage would suggest. That’s still good enough for a three-way tie for tops in the AFC East.

The Pats are at home this week where they’ve won 10 straight games and gone 7-3 against the spread in those efforts. They’ve also won and covered in their last four home games against winnings teams, which shouldn’t surprise anyone that Tom Brady and Bill Belichick tend to rise to the occasion.

This line is skewed by the fact the Pats are coming off one of their worst losses in the Brady-Belichick era but I always caution bettors not to overreact to one game. I’m focusing instead on the fact the Pats own the fourth-best total defense in the league and the best passing defense. That will be enough to keep New England close and allow Brady and the offense to snap out of their passing funk.

The Pats can only go up on offense and there’s no better spot for them to quiet the apocalyptic criticism than at home in a Sunday Nighter.

10* Main Event

I am playing on SAN FRANCISCO. I believe the 49ers will stop the Chiefs’ momentum and send them spiraling back to earth after Sunday’s game.

Kansas City was able to handle the Patriots last week on home soil by bullying them at the line of scrimmage. I don’t see that happening this week on hostile ground in San Francisco. The Niners have one of the best front seven units in the NFL and the their O-line is coming off its best game of the season after running back Frank Gore dashed for 118 yards against the Eagles.

San Fran owns the second best overall defense in the NFL and they have a knack for turning the ball over with five interceptions and four fumble recoveries. They’ll also be very comfortable playing against their former QB Alex Smith on the other side of the field.

On offense, the Niners present a challenge the Chiefs haven’t truly faced yet this year – a legit dual threat QB. Colin Kaepernick leads the NFL with 187 rushing yards and though he doesn’t rack up a ton of mileage through the air, he is efficient with a 66.9 completion percentage. The Niners offense also knows how to move the chains when it needs to, ranking fifth in the NFL in 3rd down conversion rate.

10* Personal Favorite

I’m playing on CAROLINA. Panthers QB Cam Newton faces one of his favorite teams to throw against on Sunday, which is just what Carolina needs to snap out of its two-game losing streak.

Newton has passed for over 300 yards each of the last two times he faced the Bears and don’t be surprised if he does it a third straight time. The Bears secondary ranks a disappointing 20th in the league in passing yards allowed and they have struggled to consistently bring a pass rush. (They rank just 20th in the league in rushing yards allowed.)

On offense, the Bears were thankful to see running back Matt Forte explode for 122 yards rushing last week while QB Jay Cutler struggles to establish some rhythm through the air. The problem with that for the Bears is they have a banged up offensive line that suffered another blow in practice this week when starting left tackle Jermon Bushrod hurt his knee and had to leave the field.

Carolina is an undervalued squad that has been the victim of a nasty schedule to start the season. I see them handling the Bears on Sunday in front of the home crowd.

10* Breakfast Club

I am playing on AUBURN. Auburn Tigers faithful have been waiting since 2010 to taste another victory against SEC West foe LSU and I believe they won’t have to wait any longer than this weekend.

Auburn is in a perfect spot here with a drastically improved, stifling defensive unit that will face a freshman quarterback about to make his first college start. Auburn ranks better statistically in just about every defensive category compared to last year’s team, ranking in the top 20 in the nation in total yards, rushing yards, and points allowed.

LSU, meanwhile, hasn’t seen the consistency it would like on offense which is why the Tigers are starting Brandon Harris. Harris led seven touchdown drives last game – but that was against New Mexico State in a friendly atmosphere. I’m anticipating he’ll learn some tough lessons on Saturday.

10* Personal Favorite

I'm playing on NEW ORLEANS.   After losing two straight heartbreakers, the Saints got a long overdue win last week at home. They beat Minnesota 20-9 as 9.5-point favorites within the friendly confines of the Superdome. But having to hit the road for a third time in four weeks has tempered enthusiasm here, meaning we can get away with laying a pretty short number against a still suspect Cowboys team.

Dallas had a huge come from behind victory Sunday, beating the Rams 34-31.  They trailed early 21-0 and for the first time we saw the Cowboys defense play poorly.  They gave up 448 yards and allowed St. Louis to convert 8 of 13 on third down.   Not a good sign when getting set to face Drew Brees.

These teams played last year and the results were ugly if you were a Cowboys fan.  The game was in New Orleans and the Saints won 49-17 with Brees connecting on 34 of his 41 pass attempts.  It was his third straight game throwing for at least 350 yards against this Dallas defense.   The offense set a NFL record, gaining 40 first downs.  

The Saints are clearly not the same team on the road.  They are 0-2 this year and lost four straight regular season road games.  But that lack of success has not applied to Dallas.  Brees is 3-0 all-time on the road vs. the Cowboys.

I'd say that Brees should look to pick on Cowboys' cornerback Mo Claiborne in this one, but the defender's role is going to be greatly reduced here after an awful game vs. St. Louis and storming out of practice earlier this week.  But if Claiborne is the starter, that gives you an idea on just how bad the reserves are.  

Ultimately, the Saints are going to win some road games.  This one is not outdoors, which works to the benefit of their offense.  The defense obviously made a ton of strides last week vs. Minnesota.  Dallas is just 6-11 ATS its last 17 home games including 1-4 ATS last five.  10* main event.

I'm playing on SAN FRANCISCO.    The 49ers are a team that really needs to win this week.  They're 1-2 and have faded badly in the second half of back to back losses to Chicago and Arizona.  Really, had it not been for a turnover-fueled first half lead against Dallas, things could actually be worse.  

Despite this, I had expected bettors to leap on San Francisco this week in a must-win spot as they host Philadelphia.  The sharp money did initially, but since then the line has held as the majority of tickets have actually come in on the underdog.  A contrarian by nature, I often find myself on the opposite side of the public.  That is the case here.

Obviously what the public sees here is a 3-0 team getting points.  But the Eagles are not your ordinary 3-0 team.  In all three games they have had to come from behind.   They've trailed in all three games by 10 or more points at one point.  Prior to this, no team had ever started a season 3-0 when trailing by double digits in each game.

An early hole here wouldn't be as easy for Philadelphia to climb out of.  On paper, the 49ers are a team designed to protect leads.  That has been their signature the past three seasons under Jim Harbaugh.  But strangely, it's been a different story this year.  In the first halves of games, San Francisco has outscored opponents 59-16.  In the second half, they are looking at a 52-3 deficit.  That's stunning, but not irreversible.  I would say the next time we see them get out to a big lead (here?), they will close out in familiar form.

One key trend is that San Francisco has yet to lose three straight games under Harbaugh.  Last year in Week 4, they were off two straight losses and routed St. Louis 35-11.  That's the only time they'd lost two straight under Harbaugh.  

Philadelphia's isn't without its own issues, on both sides of the football.  They've allowed 61 points the last two games and if you take out the second half vs. Jacksonville, they have given up an average of 10 points per quarter.  They haven't sacked the quarterback in the last two games.  The offensive line, which was so good last season, is dealing with multiple injuries.   10* personal favorite.

I'm playing on MIAMI.   Anyone that was expecting an early season drop off from Duke after the Blue Devils won the ACC Coastal last year has to be scratching their head.  Then again the level of competition hasn't been too great for David Cutcliffe's team, which is now 4-0 SU after a 47-13 win over Tulane last week.

Things definitely get tougher this week as Duke visits Coral Gables to play a Hurricanes team that will a) be out for revenge and b) angry after losing last week at Nebraska.

The revenge comes from a 48-30 loss last year in Durham. Miami was coming off back to back losses there and were without Duke Johnson, who got injured in the Florida State game.  Before last year, Miami had not lost to Duke going all the way back to 1976.

Last week's loss to Nebraska saw Miami get run over and commit five personal foul penalties in the second half alone.  The penalties can be corrected. The poor run defense could be an issue, but at least they won't be up against Ameer Abdullah again.

The big difference for Miami on offense this year compared to last is the presence of their own running back Johnson.  So far, he is averaging 6.1 yards per carry.  Had the team not fallen behind in both losses, Johnson could perhaps have been used more effectively.

QB Brad Kaaya has steadily improved over the course of four games.  The freshman has thrown for over 300 yards each of the last two games.  Against Nebraska, he was 28 of 42 for a career best 359 yards.  

Though one-point away from being 4-0 ATS, the competition just hasn't been that great for Duke, who has played Elon, Troy, Kansas and Tulane. 

While the stats may not support Miami being the favorite here, I'll still side with their superior athleticism and individual matchup advantages.  10* personal favorite. 

I'm playing on WASHINGTON.   This is a game that I expect to go down to the wire.  Washington has played Stanford tough each of the last two years, including a 17-13 upset at home in 2012.  Last year's game was 31-28 in favor of Stanford, but it was UW that held the 489 to 279 edge in total yards.   They covered as eight-point underdogs.

Now, we have a similar line, only this time in Seattle.  Seems like a pretty good value to me. I know it's coach Chris Petersen's first year, but the Huskies are 4-1 ATS their last five as home dogs.

Washington has started 4-0 for Petersen, which is the first time a coach has started that well at the school in over a century.  It wasn't easy last week as they actually trailed Georgia State 14-0 (as five TD favorites!) before closing the game on a 45-0 run during which they would outgain their opponent 231 to 73.

Winning the turnover margin, 4-0, did the Huskies a lot of favors obviously last week. Personally, I'm not putting a ton of stock into that early deficit.  I had Washington the week previous when they blew out Illinois 44-19.

Stanford is off a bye.  Both wins this year have been shutouts.  But they have suffered a very frustrating loss, to USC, even though they moved the ball well in that game.  

Coming off the bye, naturally you would expect the Cardinal to be "amped up." But those who have played in Husky Stadium aren't shy about letting you know that it's one of the toughest places to play in the entire country, if you're the road team.  A young Stanford offensive line could struggle Saturday afternoon. Washington is 19-3 straight up its last 22 home games.  10* best bet. 

I'm playing on GEORGIA.  If the current number holds, this would be the largest pointspread in the history of the Georgia-Tennessee rivalry.  Frankly, it's indicative of the way this SEC East matchup has gone in recent years.  Georgia has won four years in a row, and while the last three have been pretty close games, this one figures to be a blowout.

The Bulldogs come into this game off a 66-0 beatdown of Troy that saw them run for 367 yards, their most ever under coach Mark Richt. That's with Heisman candidate Todd Gurley running the ball only six times.  So Gurley will be at full strength here and that's bad news for a Tennessee team that's coming off a 34-10 loss to Oklahoma.  In doing so, the Vols allowed 7.4 yards per carry to a freshman running back.

The Volunteers had an off-week after losing to OU, but I don't see it helping much against a far superior opponent.  This has been a program on the decline for some time.  Tennessee just can't hang with the big boys anymore.  They did upset South Carolina last season, but also lost to Oregon, Florida, Alabama, Missouri and Auburn all by two touchdowns or more.  

Tennessee is a young team dealing with injuries.  That's a bad combo when heading "between the hedges."  Two of the team's top five receivers may not play here, which would be a crippling blow.  It's already been confirmed that Von Pearson will not play in this game.

Additionally, no team in America has played more true freshman this season than the Vols have.  They've sent 22 such players onto the field after just four games.

I've also been impressed with Georgia QB Hutson Mason, who is completing 71.2 percent of his passes this year.  The Bulldogs are going to be just too much for the Vols.  10* main event 

I'm playing on the GIANTS.   While the Giants won last week to improve their record to 1-2, the Redskins lost (but covered) and now find themselves in the same place in the NFC East standings.  I see the value as being on the dog in this one.

Eli Manning is finally starting to look like Eli Manning again.  He comes off his best game of the season, completing 21 of 28 passes against Houston for 234 yards and a pair of touchdowns.  Most importantly, he didn't throw an interception.  Manning was also supplemented with a nice running game, courtesy of Rashad Jennings going for 176 yards.

While the Giants ended up winning by a final score of only 30-17, it wasn't even that close.  They outgained Houston 262 to 83 in the 1st half.  Again, perhaps the most important thing is that they won the turnover battle for the 1st time in a game this season.

Everyone has been quick to jump on the Kirk Cousins bandwagon in Washington.  But while the backup quarterback has put up some impressive stats so far, all he has to show for it is a win over the winless Jaguars.   He has faced two bad defenses thus far as well.  

The home team has dominated Thursday night football so far, but under coach Tom Coughlin, New York is 3-1 ATS on TNF.   Coughlin is also 11-8-1 ATS and 14-6 straight up vs. the Redskins in his time on the Giants sidelines.

The Giants swept the Redskins last season.  Both games came late in the year.  While Washington was a bad team in 2013, I would be remiss if I didn't point out that Cousins started the second of the two games.  He played very poorly, completing just 19 of 49 passes while also throwing two interceptions.

Also important is pointing out that the underdog is on a 6-1 ATS run in this NFC East rivalry.  10* best bet.