Sports Picks & Predictions

I'm playing on TAMPA. I successfully played against the Bucs in their last game, a loss at Chicago. However, I like how this one sets up much better. Last game, the Bucs were playing on the road, on a short week. They were also laying more than a field goal. This game sets up much differently. This time, the Bucs are getting points. This time, they're at home. This time, they're playing with extra rest. I also like that Brady was embarrassed in losing. He's going to be determined to bounce back with a big effort and I expect him to do exactly that. (Obviously, both QBs want to beat the other. They're 1-1 in h2h matchups, each winning on his homefield.) Both teams want it, too. Still, this game arguably means more to Brady, Arians and the Bucs. Off their only previous loss, the Bucs responded with a double-digit win. I expect them to bounce back once again, handing the Pack their first loss of the season. 

I'm playing on VIRGINIA. There are some early similarities between the Demon Deacons and the Cavs. Both have 1-2 SU records. Both are 2-1 ATS.   These teams already have a couple of common opponents. Both have played Clemson. Both have played NC State. Each team went 0-2 in those games. Virginia's win was arugably more impressive though. The Cavs hammered Duke. Wake Forest's victory, though lopsided, was against lowly Campbell. (The Deacons were -34.5 point favorites.) So, the Deacons have yet to defeat a "real" team. While the Cavs may be without QB Brennan Armstrong, backup Lindell Stone completed 30 passes and threw three TDs last week. Coach Bronco Mendenhall noted: "Lindell did not have many practice reps at all with our offense. He was really working with our defense and helping us in that regard, and just that he came in and was effective and moved the football team, I was encouraged by that." Regardless of who is behind center, he'll be working behind an experienced offensive line and I expect the Cavs to get off to a faster start, something Mendenhall has been emphasizing. Mendehall also has an experienced and capable defense. Look for his team to emerge victorious, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on NEW ORLEANS. The Saints have a lot going for them, in my opinion. In addition to being very tough to beat at home, they're arguably better on both sides of the ball. Sean Payton gives them an edge in the coaching department. They're still very much alive in the playoff race. The Chargers are not. Of course, there's also a little score to settle. This will likely be the last time that Brees gets to face the Chargers. It may seem like he's been a Saint forever but it was the Chargers who drafted him and then essentially let him go. Brees recently noted: "When I was drafted by the Chargers back in ’01, it was my hope, my plan, to be the franchise quarterback there for my whole career." Note that Brees and the Saints are a perfect 3-0 against the Chargers. While he won't have Thomas to throw to, I say that Brees continues to haunt his old team one final time, the Saints picking up the cover along the way. 

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. The Eagles earned a hard-fought win at SF, their first victory of the season. While the Steelers represent a different type of challenge, monkey off their back, I expect the Eagles to carry the positive momentum forward. Just like that, the Eagles are in first place in the NFC East. Really, they're a better team than their record indicates. Due to that record, the Eagles find themselves as a similar sized underdog as last week, a role they thrived in. Its also a lot of points to ask the Steelers to win by. Consider that Philadelphia's last two games have been decided by a combined five points and that Pittsburgh's last two games were both decided by seven points or less. The Steelers have been nothing special (16-22 ATS) over the years, when coming off a bye. While they haven't met since 2016, the Eagles have won two of the last three meetings between these instate rivals and the lone loss (16-14 in 2012) was by just two points. Grab the points and expect another close one. 

I'm playing on CLEMSON. The Tigers have won by "only" 24, 49 and 18 points. Thats led to a poor start at the betting window and some to question how good this year's team is. I expect a visit from Miami to "get them going." The Canes are their toughest test yet, which is why the Tigers aren't favored by quite as much as they were in previous games. Note that they're 6-2 ATS the past couple of seasons, as favorites in the -10.5 to -21 point range. During that span, they've gone 6-1 ATS in October, 14-4 ATS against winning teams and 15-5 ATS in conference play overall. The Canes are off a bye but that hasn't too helpful in recent seasons. They're 0-5 SU/ATS the past five times that they were in that situation. During that span, Miami was 4-9 ATS against teams with a winning record. While the Canes have indeed looked good, Clemson is the first winning team which Miami has faced this season. While Miami does have some great athletes, Clemson is still better on both sides of the ball. Expect the Tigers to silence their critics while providing Miami with a rude reality check.

I'm playing on LOUISVILLE. Both teams will be anxious to get back on track here. The Cardinals are more talented on both sides of the ball; I expect them to be the team which does so. In addition to giving up fewer points per game, the Cardinals average 29.7 ppg on offense, while GT averages just 19.3. After back-to-back games in the underdog role, Louisville finds itself favored again. The only previous time that the Cardinals were favored, they took care of business agianst Western Kentucky, a 35-21 win on 9/12. Meanwhile, this isn't a good look for the Yellow-Jackets. They're 0-5 ATS the last five times that they were listed as underdogs in the 3.5 to 10 point range, most recently losing by 28 (49-21 on 9/19) in that role earlier this season. Before slowing down at Pittsburgh, the Cardinals had racked up more than 500 yards against Miami. I expect them to have a big day against this defense and don't feel that the Jackets will be able to keep up.

I'm playing on CHICAGO. While I succesfully played against the Bears on Sunday, I like their chances of bouncing back Thursday night. Last week, the Bears were dealing with a Colts defense which ranks #1 in the league in points allowed and #1 in the league in terms of yards allowed. The Bucs haven't been as stingy. While the Colts allow 14 ppg, the Bucs allow 23. The Bears, themselves, allow just 20.3. I like that the Bears are playing at home for the second straight week. Even if the distance isn't that great, traveling while playing on a short week, in 2020, is less than ideal. Prior to Sunday's loss, the Bears had seen all three of their games decided by less than five points. Don't be surprised when this one also comes down to the wire, the Bears with an excellent shot at the outright win. 

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. As you may have heard, the 49ers have been hit extremely hard by injuries. They were able to overcome those injury issues against the Giants and Jets. However, now they're facing a winless and desperate Eagle team, one which comes in badly in need of a victory. Yes, Philadelphia is also dealing with some injuries. However, those injuries aren't as bad or as numerous as SF's injuries. Keep in mind that the 49ers played without 10 starters last week. While they may have other areas of concern, the Eagles' defensive line is excellent. They were all over Burrow (8 sacks, 18 QB hits) last week and will be all over the QB again here. On the other side of the ball, turnovers have hurt. I expect them to clean that up here. The 49ers were fortunate to face the two NY teams when they did. Expect them to have their hands full Sunday night. 

I'm playing on BYU. This figures to be a one-sided blowout. The Cougars have crushed both opponents which they have faced. They beat Navy 55-3 and they beat Troy 48-7. They should be able to do the same to an LA Tech team which is essentially in rebuilding mode on defense. Yes, the Bulldogs are 2-0. However, they've given up 30 or more points in both games. Last game, Houston Baptist scored 38 against them. Indeed, BYU will have no trouble scoring. This hasn't been a kind role for the Bulldogs over the years; they're 6-14 ATS (1-19 SU) the past 20 times that they were underdogs in the 21.5 to 31.5 point range. I say the Cougars, 8-3 ATS their last 11 against CUSA opponents, put up a big number with the overmatched Bulldogs being unable to keep up. 

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. Both teams are 0-2. Both will be hungry for a win. I expect the Eagles to be a little more desperate though and I believe that they bring more to the table. Obviously, Burrow and the Bengals want their first win. Expectations are pretty low in Cincinnati though. Nobody will be too upset if it takes a couple of years for Burrow and the new look team to start winning. Thats not the case for the Eagles though; this is a team which expects to win now. They're going to come in angry and I expect Burrow and co. to suffer the consequences. While they're highly motivated, the Eagles aren't pushing the panic button. Wentz had this to say: "We're not panicking. The sky is not falling. We have the potential with the pieces we have on this offense to be elite, to be great and we're excited to come out (next week) and start showing it.'' The Eagles are a resilient team, having dealt with a lot in recent seasons. Sanders noted: "...it's a long season and we're going to have opportunities. It takes resiliency and that's the type of team we have.'' Expect the resilient Eagles to bounce back, securing their first win and picking up the cover along the way. 

I'm playing on LOUISIANA MONROE. Off to an 0-2 start, the Warhawks will be happy to step down in class and into the favorite role. They're also going to be highly motivated to get that first win. As tight end Josh Pederson noted: "The guys are hungry for that first win. Obviously we’re not happy about the last two weeks, but this game is an opportunity for us to get on track and I definitely think this is a must-win week." Note that Louisiana Monroe faces a UTEP team which is just 7-14-1 ATS (0-22 SU!) the past few seasons, when listed as an underdog. Indeed, the Miners are among the worst teams in the country. They do have two wins this season but those came against FCS teams. They haven't beaten an FBS opponent or won on the road since 2018. Playing in a "must win week," I say the Warhawks pull away for a double-digit win. 

I'm taking the points with MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE. After back-to-back ugly losses to start the season, the Blue Raiders are going to be hungry to show everyone that they're better than those results indicate. Yes, they've struggled but this is a team they match up well against and they're coming in expecting to win. The Roadrunners are off to an impressive 2-0 start. However, keep in mind that one of those wins came by three points in double-OT and that the other came against lowly ranked Stephen F. Austin. After failing to cover in that game against Stephen Austin, the Roadrunners are just 4-9 ATS in home games the past couple of seasons, 1-3 ATS as favorites. Expect them to have their hands full once again. 

I'm playing on UAB. The Blazers lost QB Tyler Johnston to injury. That's not ideal. However, its been factored into the line and we're getting UAB at a bit better price as a result. Importantly, backup Bryson Lucero has played in both games and with the Blazers off last weekend, he's had plenty of time to prepare for the starting role. I believe that the Blazers, who started the season a 10-point win before losing at Miami, have a talent advantage in this one. Keep in mind that this is an extremely experienced UAB team, one which feels capable of winning the rest of its games. Indeed, UAB returned 18 starters. The Blazers are 14-6-1 ATS in recent seasons when laying points and they're 4-1 ATS when coming off a bye. Look for the Blazers, who rarely lose in their home state, to improve on those stats, delivering a statement win over their "instate rival." 

I'm playing on HOUSTON. I like how this one sets up for the Texans and believe that they're offering plenty of value. Everyone just saw the Texans get beaten up by the Chiefs. Meanwhile, the Ravens just blew out the Browns. So, many are down on the Texans and high on the Ravens. Thats led to generous points with the Texans as a home underdog. Yes, the Ravens are good. But, its important not to over-react to one game. The Texans are better than they showed. They generated some momentum towards the end of the KC game and I expect them to carry it into this one. I really like that they've had an extra couple of days, due to having played on Thursday. This early in the season, after not having had a preseason, I believe that extra rest and preparation time will prove significant. While not having Hopkins hurts, Watson still has some weapons including Fuller who caught 8 of 10 for more than 100 yards. David Johnson showed promise out of the backfield (more than 100 total yards and a TD) and figures to be a big upgrade at running back. The Texans haven't forgotten that the Ravens hammered them last season, at Baltimore. They're coming in highly motivated. While I absolutely like their chances of the outright win, I expect their best effort to lead to AT LEAST a cover on Sunday afternoon. 

I'm playing on SOUTHERN MISS. The Bulldogs are off a good season and they've got a 'big name' coach. This is a unique 'pandemic situation' though. LA Tech didnt play its first game due to Covid issues. It wasnt just a few players either. Nearly the entire roster has been out; more than 50 players were unavailable for the Baylor game. They've been dealing with extensive testing and stress and have been unable to properly practice or prepare. Hurricane season doesn't help matters. Remember, the Bulldogs lost a lot from last year's defense, too. Meanwhile, Southern Miss already has a game under its belt and now they've had a chance to work out some of their issues. The fact that the Golden Eagles lost that one should add to their determination here. The South Alabama loss notwithstanding, the Golden Eagles are typically pretty tough at home. Expect them to show no sympathy for their guests in this one. 

I'm playing on CLEVELAND. I really like how this one sets up for the Browns. Both teams lost their opener. However, the Browns were crushed by Baltimore while Cincy lost a close one vs. the Chargers. That may have many thinking that the Bengals played better. However, the fashion that they lost that one (outscored 10-0 in 4th) figures to be harder to bounce back from (more deflating) than the Browns' blowout loss. Indeed, the Browns were embarrassed and they will be absolutely determined to bounce back and prove to the world that they aren't a joke. Remember, this is a team which has been stockpiling talent on both sides of the ball for years now. As Baker Mayfield noted: "Sometimes a wake-up call is good for everybody. A punch in the mouth and that’s how we should take it." Also, keep in mind that the Browns were on the road against a very tough Baltimore team last week while the Bengals played at home. Note that the Bengals are just 2-13 SU their last 15 on the road. The Browns have had success on Thursdays, going 8-4 ATS their last 12 and 2-0 SU/ATS the past couple of seasons. That includes a 21-7 win over the Steelers last season. Expect them to bounce back with an important win and cover. 

I'm playing on PITTSBURGH. With quite a few years in the Patriots' organization and coming highly recommended from Belichick, its entirely possible that Joe Judge will go on to have a successful head coaching career. However, before that ever happens, I expect him to receive an unfriendly welcome to the head coaching fraternity by Mike Tomlin and the Steelers. Over the past few months, Judge has had to do a lot of things for the first time. He and the Giants very likely would have benefitted from the chance to get to know each other better over a few preseason games. Tomlin, on the other hand, knows his team well. They got horrible QB play last year and were still competitive. Now, the Steelers get Rothlisberger back and he'll surely be an improvement. Meanwhile, the defense is expected to rank among the league's best. Despite no preseason games, NY still managed to lose some starters to injury. The Giants' secondary was already thin and they lost Xavier McKinney. Though a rookie, he was expected to be their starting free safety. Meanwhile, linebacker David Mayo (143 tackles last year) also went down. While the Giants are projected to win six games this season, the Steelers O/U line is 9.5. Expect Tomlin's team to get the first of those Monday night, covering the relatively small number along the way.

I'm playing on MINNESOTA. This is the first time in the Vikings' 60-year history that they will open a season at home, against Green Bay. These teams have won 10 of the past 12 division titles and 14 of the past 18. If projected win totals mean anything, it'll likely be one or the other, once again. In other words, this is a big game. The Packers took both last season's meetings and went on to win the division title. The Vikings know they can't afford to let that happen again; I expect them to have the edge in Sunday afternoon's season opener. While Rodgers has been an elite QB for a long time, he's nearly 37 and can only do so much with a fairly limited supporting cast. The Vikings do have some new faces but the key contributors are back. While he doesn't have the big name of Rodgers, Cousins is off a strong year, finishing with a 107.4 passer rating. He threw for 3600+ yards with 26 TDs against six INTs. Dalvin Cook will play a prominent role and he's reportedly looked great in camp. I believe Minnesota has a slight edge on defense. While it should be a good game, I say the Vikes get the win and cover. 

I'm playing on KANSAS. Last year, here at Memorial Stadium in Lawrence, Coastal Carolina beat Kansas by a score of 12-7. It was the first time that the Chanticleers had EVER beaten a 'Power 5' school. Needless to say, Les Miles and co. haven't forgotten. While the Jayhawks are young, they're still the more talented team here. The fact that they don't have to travel more than 1000 miles during a pandemic also works in their favor. Coastal Carolina coach Chadwell acknowledged that travel presents challenges: "They know we can lose somebody today to quarantine or whatever it may be. Until we get on that plane, there is going to be some apprehension ..." Addtionally, Coastal Carolina had to relocate due to Hurricane Dorian. (The Chanticleers stayed and training in South Carolina's Upstate region.) Les Miles knows his team needs to beat the likes of the Chanticleers. He'll have his team ready; I say its "payback time."

I'm playing on ND. The Irish hammered the Blue Devils 38-7 last season. That kicked off a stretch which saw the Irish close out their season by winning each of their final five games by 21 or more points. Expectations are very high this season and I look for the Irish, now part of the ACC, to make a statement in this one. While Duke is capable defensively, it won't be capable enough to stop this Irish attack. Indeed, ND brings back eight starters including QB Ian Book, who had 34 TDs against just six INTs last season. Speaking of Book, he was outstanding against the Blue Devils last season and that was at Duke. He threw for four TDs while gaining 139 yards on the ground. In fact, in that game, he became the first ND QB to throw for three or more TDs and run for more than 100 yards. Things were already bad on the offensive side of the ball for Blue Devils but losing starting center Wohlabaugh to a knew injury was a major blow. Of the chance to play in the ACC, Brian Kelly noted: "...Our players are excited though, quite honestly, that they get a chance to play for a championship - an ACC championship.'' Expect a blowout. 

I'm playing on UAB. Obviously, the Canes have the bigger name and hail from the bigger conference. They get to recruit the better players. That said, the Blazers have a lot working in their favor here. They've already got a game under their belts and put up 45 points in the process. They arguably played better than the 45-35 score indicates, too. Central Arkansas got a few scores off turnovers; UAB had a 459-293 edge in total yards, including a 233-100 rushing advantage. Having worked out a few kinks will help them here. Keep in mind that UAB went 9-5 last season and won a bowl game. While the Blazers return a number of key starters, the Canes lost a lot of them. Miami has struggled as a favorite in recent seasons and will have its hands full here. Grab the generous points.

I'm playing on KC. The Titans have certainly been impressive. First, they knocked off New England, a top defensive team. Next, they crushed Baltimore, a top offensive team. Obviously, Henry has been an absolute beast. I believe that the Chiefs are a different animal though. Mahomes has been here before and he's peaking at the right time. The Chiefs fell behind 24-0 out of the gate last week and they didn't even bat an eye. By halftime, they were up by four. By the end of the game, they won by 20. Yes, they ended the game on a 51-7 run. Thats absolutely dominant. The Titans haven't fallen behind. So, thats allowed them to keep running Henry the entire game. However, when the Chiefs get up double-digits, as I expect them to do, its going to be a lot harder for the Titans to stick with the running game. While both teams played last week, the Chiefs played at home, while the Titans were on the road. The previous week, the Chiefs had a much-needed bye while the Titans were again on the road. That extra rest and not having to play on the road will help the Chiefs here. Indeed, this is the Titans fourth road game in four weeks. That can and will take a toll. KC hasn't been on the road since before Christmas. The Titans are 0-2 ATS when off a double-digit win as an underdog. Going back further finds them at 6-17-3 ATS in that situation. The Chiefs are 5-2 ATS as home favorites. Yes, the Titans beat them earlier. But the Chiefs are also 3-0 SU/ATS their last three in the revenge role, 7-3 SU/ATS their last 10. They're 15-5-1 ATS off a double-digit win. Expect another double-digit victory. 

I'm playing on GREEN BAY. I have a lot of respect for Russell Wilson. Pete Carroll, too. However, I expect their season to come to an end on Sunday. The Hawks lost a heartbreaker vs the 49ers two weeks ago, a game that came down to the final play. Last week, they left in all on the field, at Philly. Playing back-to-back road games can be tough. While they were giving it everything they had, the Pack were resting. That extra rest, combined with homefield advantage, will prove the difference here. The Pack were 7-1 at home (5-0 L5) this season and six of those seven wins, including each of the past four, came by more than four points. The Hawks defense came up big last week, holding the Eagles (minus Carson Wentz for most of it) to nine points. They're only 4-8 ATS the past dozen times that they allowed 14 or fewer points in their previous game though. The Pack are 9-4 ATS (12-1 SU) the past 13 times that they were home favorites of seven or less. Expect them to improve on those stats Sunday. 

I'm playing on SEATTLE. The Eagles went on a nice run to get here. However, the fact is that they're still a 9-7 team which got four of its wins against the Giants and Redskins, a pair of teams with a combined 7-25 record. While their known for having a strong homefield advantage, the Seahawks have been excellent on the road. They know they can win here, too. In fact, they did so back in October. Including that 17-9 victory, the Hawks are a dominant 10-1 SU and 8-1-2 ATS the past 11 times that they played a road game with an O/U line ranging from 45.5 to 49. They're also 6-1 ATS their last seven against teams from the NFC East and 8-1 SU their last nine as a road favorite. Off the tough loss to SF in their reg. season finale, note that the Hawks are 5-1-2 ATS (6-2 SU) the past eight time that they were off a home loss. Expect Wilson to lead them to another victory on Sunday afternoon. 

FRIDAY 10* CFB MAIN EVENT (71% IN 2020) **OHIO/NEVADA**

While he came up short with the total in the Birmingham Bowl, Ben Burns already has a 5-2 (+$2,810) record with his top rated selections in 2020. He's putting that 71.43% RECORD on the line for this afternoon's Idaho Potato Bowl. Don't miss it!

I'm playing on OHIO. Nevada has the better record and played in the tougher conference. Yet, Ohio is favored. What gives? Indeed, a lot of people are likely going to be quick to grab the points, based on the records/conferences alone. However, in my opinion, the Bobcats are favored for good reason. In fact, I expect them to win this one by double-digits. Here are a few of the reasons why. The Bobcats outscored teams by 92 points this season. Nevada, on the other hand, was outscored by 129 points. The Bobcats could have easily had a better record, as they lost four games by a field goal or less. The Bobcats have a big edge on offense. In addition to their experienced coach, they've got an excellent senior QB, working behind a solid offensive line and complemented by a pair of capable backs. They'll be working against a depleted Nevada defense which has a few interim head coaches, after Casteel got fired and which is dealing with multiple suspensions. Ultimately, I believe the Bobcats will put up a big number and I don't expect Nevada to be able to keep up.

I'm playing on GEORGIA. Yes, the Bulldogs just got hammered by LSU. However, in case you haven't heard, the Tigers are extremely strong this season. So, there's not much shame in getting blown out by them. After thumping the Bulldogs, LSU went on to smash the Sooners. Yes, the same Sooners who beat Baylor, twice. Georgia still outscores teams by a dominating 33.5 to 12.1 margin. Only Clemson (11.5) allows fewer points per game. Baylor allows 19.3 ppg. While Georgia allows 273.4 ypg, the Bears allow 358.9. While Baylor is 1-4 ATS its last five off a bye, the Bulldogs are 5-1 ATS their last six off a bye. Expect their superior defense to prove the difference, the Bulldogs pulling away for a double-digit victory. 

I'm playing on SEATTLE. Needless to say, this is a huge game for both teams. Playing at home, I expect the battle-tested Seahawks to have the advantage. While the 49ers have enjoyed a great season, this is still relatively new territory to them. The Hawks and their rabid fans have been here before. Many times. Russell Wilson is starting to get some credit as being one of the best QBs but he's still under-rated, in my opinion. The signing of Lynch is only going to get the crowd going that much more. Beast Mode is back and the veteran's explosive personality should provide a boost for the entire team. The Hawks are 12-7-1 ATS the last 20 times that they were getting points. They're also a perfect 5-0 SU (3-0-2 ATS) the past five times that they were off a division loss. While I like Seattle to win outright, with the last two meetings both decided by a field goal, I'm happy to grab the points. 

I'm playing on OHIO STATE. I successfully played against the Buckeyes in the Big Ten Championship. They were facing a revenge-minded Wisconsin team which had a bigtime back and which was coming in full of confidence. The Buckeyes took the Badgers' best punch but stormed back to still win by 13. To most, Clemson's 62-17 win over Virginia was probably more impressive. However, I'd also backed the Cavs in their previous game, a 39-30 win over archrival V-Tech. The Cavs. not nearly as strong as Wisconsin in the first place, were still celebrating snapping their skid against the Hokies and never really believed they would beat Clemson. I guess what I'm trying to say is that I was not more impressed with Clemson's win than I was with Ohio State's win. Really, I believe the closer win and the fact that they were tested will serve the Buckeyes better than Clemson winning in another blowout. Overall, the Buckeyes' schedule was arguably much tougher too, not just that final game. Thats going to serve them well here as they've faced plenty of quality teams while Clemson hasn't really done so. Over the years, Clemson is 30-31 ATS when playing a line with a game in the +3 to -3 range. During the same span, the Buckeyes were 30-16-2 ATS when playing a game with a line in that range. During that span, they were also 31-19 ATS when getting points. While I respect the Tigers, I believe the wrong team is favored. Ohio State gets it done. 

I'm playing on TEXAS A&M. This line has come down and I feel thats providing excellent value with the favorite. The Aggies have taken on the likes of Alabama, Auburn and Clemson. You may recall they very nearly beat both "Tiger" teams, losing by four to Auburn and just two against Clemson. The Cowboys aren't in the same class. Despite taking on some of the best teams in the country, the Aggies still allow an average of just 22.7 ppg. Oklahoma State, on the other hand, allows 27. While there will be a lot of talk about having their running back (Chuba Hubbard) healthy, its important to note that the Cowboys will be without their star safety (Kolby Harvell-Peel). Texas A@M already had the better defense and his absence makes the Cowboys' unit that much weaker. Meanwhile, the Cowboys other starting safety will have to sit for the first half due to targeting in the OU game. It all adds up to a win and cover for the Aggies. 

I'm playing on MINNESOTA. Both teams are off impressive wins last week. Playing at home, playing with revenge from the earlier loss at Lambeau, I believe it'll be the Vikings which follow it up with a victory here. While the Packers have actually been outscored by an average of 21.2 to 20.8 on the road, the Vikings are outscoring teams by an average of 27.7 to 14.2 here at Minnesota. Big difference. The Packers have been outgained by an average of 378.3 to 271, in terms of yards per game, when playing on the road. Perfect at home, the Vikes have outgained visiting teams by a 368.3 to 341.7 margin. Again, a big difference. Last year's game at Lambeau was 29-29 but the Vikings won 24-17 when playing here at home. The previous season, they won 23-10 here. The Pack are 1-4 ATS the past five times that they were road underdogs in the 3.5 to 7 range. The Vikes are 9-3 ATS their last 12 as home favorites of seven or less. I believe homefield will again prove significant and I'm laying the relatively small number. 

I'm playing on CHICAGO. The Bears lost at Lambeau last week while the Chiefs continued their dominance of Denver. Those results have helped in providing us with strong value with Chicago. Indeed, the Bears have thrived in the home underdog role. They're 7-1 ATS their last eight, when getting points at home, 2-0 SU/ATS this season. Last time they were underdogs here, they beat Dallas outright. Playing their home finale, naturally, they're going to be fired up. I believe they're going to have success moving the ball against the Chiefs' defense and I expect AT LEAST another cover on Sunday night. 

I'm playing on LA. Both these teams have disappointed. While the Raiders actually have the better record, I believe the set up favors the Chargers. Rivers and co. still have plenty of pride. Playing their home finale and also playing with revenge from last month's 26-24 loss at Oakland, they're going to be highly motivated for this one. As for the Raiders, they played their final game at Oakland last week. That wasn't even enough to really motivate them, as stumbling Jacksonville handed the Raiders their fourth straight setback. The Raiders have been outscored by a combined score of 136-49 in those four losses. Ugly. The Chargers are 3-1 ATS the past four times that they attempted to avenge an earlier 'upset' loss. Going back further finds them at 25-13 ATS in that situation. Laying -6 points, the Chargers beat the Raiders 27-10 here last season. Expect another double-digit win. 

I'm playing on LA. Two weeks ago, I won with the Rams when they beat up on Seattle. Last week, I successfully played against the Rams, when they got hammered by Dallas. I'm coming right back with them here though. The 49ers also lost. However, they're loss may well take more of a toll on them this week, than LA's loss, due to the nature of it. The Falcons scored 12 points in the final two seconds to stun the 49ers. SF is just 5-10-1 ATS as a favorites the past 2+ seasons, 3-7-1 ATS as a home favorite. During the same span, the Rams are 4-1 ATS as road underdogs. They're playing with 'revenge' from a 20-7 loss at LA and they're 8-4-1 ATS (10-3 SU) in the revenge role the past 2+ seasons, 3-1 ATS (4-0 SU) when revenging a loss from a game in which they were favored. Grab the points but don't be surprised when LA wins outright. 

I'm playing on UTAH State. While the Golden Flashes went on a nice run to get here, I believe that there's a class difference between these teams. The Aggies arguably underachieved this season but this is there chance to show everyone they're better than what we saw from them in the reg. season. They played in the tougher conference and their more difficult schedule will serve them well here. Despite the more difficult conference, the Aggies scored more points and compiled more yards, while allowing fewer points and fewer yards. Kent State was fortunate in the turnover department but thats not something that can be relied on consistently. With an O/U line in the mid-high 60s, this should be a high-scoring game. That suits the Aggies fine. They're 17-8 ATS their last 25, when the O/U line was set at 63 or higher. Expect them to improve on those stats with a double-digit win here. 

I'm playing on DALLAS. The Cowboys opened as favorites here but money came in on the Rams and now its LA which is favored. While I respect the Rams, I believe that move is providing us with excellent value on what is going to be an extremely determined Dallas team. Obviously, the Cowboys would love to avenge last year's playoff loss. This game is about more than that though. The Cowboys need to win the NFC East to get the playoffs and the defending division champs know they're going to need this game to accomplish that feat. The Rams know they need this one every bit as much, which is going to make for a good game. Playing at home and playing with extra preparation time (Cowboys are 4-1 SU/ATS their last five, off a Thursday game) is going to give Dallas the edge though. You'll hear a lot about the Cowboys not beating good teams so far this season. That changes here. Backs against the wall, ook for the Cowboys to bounce back with their best effort of the season, improving to 7-1 ATS the past eight times that they'd lost three of their previous four games. 

I'm playing on NEW YORK. While I lost with the Jets this past Sunday, I always do my best to wipe the slate clean and look at each game without bias from preivous plays, won or lost. In this case, though it surely didn't help me Sunday as they failed to cover, I like the fact that the Jets eked out the SU win. That showed heart and will provide confidence and positive momentum for this one. They've quietly won four of five and nobody has beaten them by more than 16 since the Pats did so back in October. Of course, the Ravens have looked very impressive all season. A road game against a tough Buffalo team can take a toll though and they're being asked to cover an awful big number here, on a short week. Their last two games have both been decided by seven or less. The Ravens have thrived on the road, at the betting window, but they're actually only 2-4 ATS when listed as the home team. Going back further finds them at an ugly 8-15 ATS in home games, the past 2+ seasons. Look for this one to be closer than many will be expecting and grab the generous points. 

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. Both of these teams have seen better days. The Eagles have dropped three straight, most recently a humiliating loss against lowly Miami. The Giants, meanwhile, haven't won in months. Playing at home, knowing they will face these same Giants at New York in 20 more days, I expect the Eagles to be the team which bounces back. As bad as Eagles' fans might feel, keep in mind that the first two of their three losses came against the Patriots and the Seahawks, a pair of playoff teams capable of meeting in the Super Bowl. Both losses were close. So, in hindsight, a letdown against the Dolphins wasn't that shocking. Here, however, they're facing a hated division rival and there won't be any letdown. The Eagles' defense allows 18 points and 270.5 yards here at home. The Giants, on the other hand, allow 30.8 ppg and 404 ypg on the road. Expect that far superior defense to be the difference, the Eagles bouncing back with a double-digit win. 

I'm playing on LA. The Seahawks have obviously been on a very impressive run. I feel that it comes to a temporary halt tonight though. The Rams got embarrassed, on National TV, by Lamar Jackson and the Ravens, two weeks ago. Tonight, they get a chance to show the world that they're better than that. They've already bounced back by blowing out Arizona last week, providing some positive momentum here. Note that the Rams are 9-1 SU their last 10, off a division win and 5-0 SU their last five off a divisional win of 21 or more. True, they're up against another special QB in Wilson. Seattle brings out the best in this LA team though. The Rams gave the Hawks all they could handle at Seattle, losing by one. Prior to that, they'd beaten them three straight times. In addition to playing at home, the Rams have the schedule in their favor; the Hawks are playing on a short week. While the Hawks obviously want to win, the Rams need to. As Gurley noted, "we're scratching our way in." Look for them to find a way.

I'm playing on the NEW YORK JETS. The Dolphins already beat the Jets. Last week, they upset the Eagles. Meanwhile, the Jets lost against the previously winless Bengals. Many will look at all that and see this as a no-brainer to take the points. Football is a funny game though; I have the Jets winning by double-digits. Neither offense has been good but the Jets have been slightly better, in terms of ppg. More importantly, they've been much better, in terms of points allowed. The Jets allow 23.3 ppg (20.8 at home) while the Dolphins allow 31.4. Over their past three games, Miami opponents are averaging 36.3 ppg and 425.7 ypg. The Jets, on the other hand, have allowed an average of 14.0 ppg and 236.7 ypg, their last three. The Dolphins are 7-13 ATS their last 20 as road underdogs and that includes a 1-5 ATS mark their last six as road underdogs in the 3.5 to 7 range. They're 0-3 SU/ATS the past couple of seasons, when off a game they won SU where they were a home underdog of seven or more points. During that span, the Jets were 2-0 ATS when off a loss as a road favorite. Lay the points, its payback time. 

I'm playing on BUFFALO. Both these teams are having excellent season. However, the Ravens, thanks to Lamar Jackson's remarkable numbers, seem to be getting a lot more credit/respect than the Bills. Indeed, while the Ravens are 10-2 the Bills are 9-3. Yet, the Bills are nearly a touchdown underdog, at home. Thats too much, in my opinion. The Bills are 4-1 their last five, holding all five of those opponents to 20 or fewer points. The one loss came by just three. In addition to having the venue in their favor, the Bills have had extra time to prepare, as they played on Thansgiving. The Ravens are off an extremely hard fought 3-point win against SF. Expect them to have their hands full once again, the Bills earning AT LEAST a cover and improving to 5-2 ATS the past seven times that they were home underdogs of seven or fewer points. 

I'm playing on WISCONSIN. I won with the 'under' when the Buckeyes beat the Badgers earlier in the season. It was only 10-0 at halftime before getting a bit dicey in the second half. The Buckeyes won 38-10. That was at Columbus though and now the game is being played at Lucas Oil Stadium, at Indianapolis. Yet, the Buckeyes opened as even bigger favorites for this one than they closed as for the first game. Thats not giving much respect to the Badgers and its offering us excellent value. Wisconsin's Jonathan Taylor had this to say: "Very motivated. I know my team will try to lean on me to make plays. I have to make sure I'm ready this week." With Taylor bouncing back with a much better effort than he had in the first game, look for the Badgers to improve to 3-0 ATS the past three times that they attempted to avenge a loss of 21 or more points. 

I'm playing on OKLAHOMA. The Bears were up 31-10 at halftime in the first meeting and they still couldn't win. Having squandered that opportunity, they won't get another one. Prior to that 34-31 comeback thriller, the Sooners' last win against the Bears came by 33 points. I believe that there's still a talent difference. The earlier meeting and Baylor's big win againt Kansas have helped us by keeping the line in single digits. Remember, the Sooners were a -10.5 point favorite for the first meeting and that was at Baylor. Off an 18-point win at OSU to close out the season, look for the Sooners to get off to a much better start in this one, keeping the pedal to the metal the entire way and improving to 6-2 ATS (8-0 SU) the past eight times that they were off a double-digit road win. 

I'm playing on HOUSTON. Recent meetings between these teams have been at Foxboro. The last two were both very close, New England winning by seven and three points. Now, the Texans get to face them here at Houston. I expect that to make all the difference. In addition to playing at home, I like that the Texans have had some extra time to prepare. Their last game was on a Thursday; they're 2-0 ATS off a Thursday game, the past couple of seasons. Speaking of that Thursday game, I like the fact that the Texans were able to eke out a win. Note that they're a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS the past couple of seasons, when off a game where they won but didn't cover. The Texans haven't lost here since September. In what should be another close one, I'll happily take the points. However, I expect the Texans to bring their A game and win outright. 

I'm playing on NC STATE. Though they didn't win, I like the effort the Wolfpack showed in battling back against G-Tech last game. (They're 7-2 SU/ATS over the years off a road loss of three or less.) Obviously, they're going to be fired up to host their instate rival. With the line having risen to double-digits, I believe we're getting outstanding value. Note that the Tar Heels are only 4-7-1 ATS as favorites the past couple of seasons. I like the fact that NC State has had a couple of extra days to prepare; their last game came on a Thursday. The Wolfpack won by six at North Carolina last year and they beat the Heels by 12 here the previous year. UNC might find a way to win this year but if they do, its NOT going to be easy. Grab the points. 

I'm playing on CSU. This line has risen from its opener and I believe its providing us with excellent value on the home underdog. The Broncos were favored by 6.5 points their last visit here, winning by seven. You may remember that one, the Broncos were undefeated at the time but the Rams gave them a real scare, leading 35-17 at halftime. While the Broncos could be looking ahead to bigger things to come, the Rams will honor 13 seniors before the game, their last of the season. The weather is likely going to be ugly; as of Wednesday that they had 100 workers in their shoveling snow. That may well favor what is going to be a determined home team. Grab the points. 

I'm playing on VIRGINIA. I successfully backed the Hokies when these teams met last Black Friday. The Cavs were -5.5 point favorites but the Hokies won outright by a field goal. This time, its the Hokies who are favored. Once again, I'll be backing the underdog. While I do expect the Cavs to win outright, having an extra field goal to work with, in a game which could well be decided by a field goal or less, is a comforting feeling. Off three straight wins, the Cavs come in full of confidence. Last time out, they hammered Liberty 55-27, a game which saw them rush for a season high 227 yards. It was the most points they scored in a game since 2004. While the Hokies are off b2b blowout wins, both in shutout fashion, its worth noting that they're only 1-3 SU/ATS the past couple of seasons, when off b2b wins of 21 or more points. The Cavs, meanwhile, are 5-0-1 ATS after scoring 24 or more points in the first half of their previous game. Expect at least another cover Friday afternoon.

I'm playing on ATLANTA. While I successfully played against the Falcons last game, I believe that a primetime Thanksgiving game, at home, against the Saints, will bring out their best. Indeed, this is as big as it gets for them, as the playoffs are out of the question. Having already won at New Orleans, they know they can play with these guys. That was no fluke either; the Falcons won 26-9, less than three weeks ago. I expect this one to be closer. Games between these teams, here at Atlanta, almost always are. In fact, 10 straight meetings between these teams, here at Atlanta, have been decided by 10 or fewer points. Nine of those 10 were decided by six or less. If you'd been getting +6.5 or +7 with the Falcons in each of those games, you'd be a perfect 10-0. The Saints saw their most recent game decided by a field goal. Look for this one to also come down to the wire, the Falcons bringing their best game and improving to 12-4 ATS their last 16 Thursday games. 

I'm playing on LA. The Ravens have certainly been on an impressive run. However, I feel that the defending NFC champs aren't getting nearly enough respect. The Rams have the weapons on offense but its their defense which has been dominant of late. Since acquiring Jaylen Ramsey, they've held four straight opponents to 17 or less and three of those finished with 10 or less. Ramsey had this to say: "Hopefully, we go out there, we set the tone, we play a good game and we let the world know who the L.A. Rams are." Last time out, LA allowed just seven points. The Rams, 10-2 their last 12 against AFC teams, are 3-1 ATS the last four, after allowing 17 or fewer points in each of their last three games. Baltimore, meanwhile, is 1-3 ATS after allowing nine or less points. The Ravens are also just 1-5 ATS the past six, after covering in four or five of their previous six games. While I like LA to win outright, I'm happy to grab the points. 

I'm playing on SF. These teams met last October, at Lambeau. The Packers were laying -9.5 points but the 49ers gave them all they could handle. SF took a 24-20 lead into halftime and GB eventually won 33-30, hitting a field goal as time expired. The 49ers have gotten a lot better since then though and now they're playing at home. I expect them to make a statement on National TV, showing the world that they are indeed for real. While Rodgers may be from California, the Pack lost 26-11 the last time that they played in this state. The Pack are just 6-13-1 ATS the last 20 times that they were off an ATS win. The Pack outscore teams by a 21.5 to 19.2 margin on the road, the 49ers outscore teams by a dominant 33.2 to 17.8 margin at home. Lay the points. 

I'm playng on TAMPA. Off six straight losses, the Falcons suddenly caught fire and won big in b2b road games. Now, they find themselves favored for the first time in more than a month. The Falcons are 0-2 ATS when laying points on the season and I expect them to have their hands full against what will be a determined Tampa team. True, the Bucs haven't won for a long time. They're still playing hard though and this is a game they know they can win. While I like the Bucs' chances of winning outright, having more than a field goal to work with could well come in handy, given the recent history between these rivals. The last three meetings have all been decided by five or less, two of them decided by three or less. The Bucs are 8-3 ATS the past 2+ seasons, after having lost six or seven, of their previous eight games. Grab the points. 

I'm playing on UTAH STATE. While I respect the Broncos, I expect them to have their hands full here. Last year's game was decided by single-digits and that was at Boise. Now, the Broncos are on the road where they're 0-2 ATS their last two. The Aggies, who average better than 500 yards of offense per game here at home, are off back-to-back wins. The fact that they were both close ones should serve them well here. They're coming in confident they can score the upset. The Aggies are 4-1 ATS the last five times that they were home underdogs in the +7.5 to +10 range. Expect them to improve on those stats with AT LEAST a cover tonight and don't be surprised by the outright win. 

I'm playing on HOUSTON. While I won with the Colts last week, I really think that they're in trouble here. Importantly, they're now on the road, instead of at home. In my opinion, thats even more significant than normal when on a short week. The Colts are 2-2 on the road, the Texans 3-1 at home. The Colts won the first meeting, at Indianapolis. However, the Texans were playing their second straight on the road. All the same, the Texans were able to do a great job in slowing down Marlon Mack and the Colts ground game. Speaking of Mack, he's out for this week. That hurts a team which is banged-up at receiver and which relies very heavily on the run. Williams ran well last week to replace Mack but he will find the going much tougher here against a Houston team which rarely allows running backs to find the end zone. The Texans are also without their starting back but I like Hyde as a replacement better than Williams. I also expect Watson to bounce back with a much better performance; in their last two home games the Texans have scored 80 combined points. Look for the Texans to improve to 6-2 ATS the past eight times that they attempted to avenge a road loss. 

Im playing on NIU. While neither team is exactly stout defensively, the Huskies have the edge in that department. They allow 27.9 ppg (12.3 at home!) and 386.2 (217.3 at home!) yards. Eastern Michigan, on the other hand, allows 31.3 ppg and 435.2 ypg. The Eagles got a big win last time out. However, that was at Akron. Now, they're playing their second straight on the road, while taking a considerable step up in class. While we have to go back some time, note that the Eagles are 3-9 ATS the past dozen times they were off a double-digit conference win and 1-4 ATS (0-5 SU) when off a conference win of 21 or more. The Huskies have been to seven of the last nine MAC title games. They still have a shot to get back but would need to win out and get some help. Either way, in order for them to be bowl eligible, they need to win both this game and the next. They found a way to beat Toledo, eking out a 3-point win. They're 11-3 the past 14 times that they were off a win of three or less, 3-1 (SU and ATS) the past four. Speaking of close wins, the Huskies have won the last two between these teams by scores of 26-23 and 30-27. Back home and desperate for a victory, expect them to find a way once again. 

I'm playing on LA. I sucessfully played against the Chiefs last week. At the time, I noted that the return of Mahomes wasn't going to fix the Chiefs' issues on defense, particularly against the run. Sure enough, that was the problem. The Titans scored 35 points and Derrick Henry (188 rush yards, 2 TDs) won me my week in Fantasy. The Chargers run the ball differently than the Titans but they too will be able to exploit the Chiefs' soft run defense. In the most recent meeting between these teams, a 29-28 win for the Chargers, LA had double as many yards on the ground, a 119-60 advantage. In fact, the Chargers also even threw for more yards in that game, while holding a solid edge in first downs and time of possession. Chargers coach Anthony Lynn played in Mexico as a player and that experience should prove helpful. Knowing what its like and with the Chargers having extra time off, due to playing on a Thursday last week, Lynn had them train in the high altitude of Colorado Springs for the week, to help prepare for the 7200 feet about sea level they'll deal with in Mexico City. Look for it to prove helpful, the Chargers coming away with AT LEAST the cover on Monday night. 

I'm playing on TAMPA. The Saints were upset by lowly Atlanta last time out. Many will expect them to immediately bounce back and blow out Tampa. Easier said than done. The Bucs may be just 3-5. However, one of those wins came in their last game and four of those five losses came by seven points or less. (The other was by 11.) In other words, they were right there in every game and the record could easily be better. One of those close losses was at New Orleans in early October. Thats noteworthy as the Bucs are 5-0 ATS the past five times that they were attempting to avenge a same season loss. With the Saints 0-4 ATS their last four, when off a divisional loss, I'm grabbing the points with the revenge-minded Bucs. 

I'm playing on CLEVELAND. Both teams earned impressive close wins last week. The Steelers upset the Rams while the Browns, in Hunts' first game, eked out a win against the Bills. Playing at home with no travel on a short week, more desperate than their guests, I expect the Browns to be the team which follows it up. Needless to say, its been a very disappointing season for Browns' fans. This is still a highly talented team though, one picked by many to go deep into the playoffs. Even if it doesn't ultimately amount to them getting anywhere, a win against the Steelers on National Television will go a long way to ease the suffering of the faithful. Last year, they earned a tie in the game here. This year, Rothlisberger on the bench, the Browns take the next step and knock off the pesky Steelers, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on KENT STATE. The Bulls hammered the Golden Flashes, at Buffalo, last season. Playing at home, I expect a much better effort from the Golden Flashes this year. While they've dropped three in a row, the Golden Flashes continue to play hard; they've covered three of four and four of six. Admittedly, the Bulls have looked impressive in beating up some bad teams lately. While they did have last week off but this still marks their second straight on the road, the first time they've played in that situation. Also, note that the Bulls are just 1-4 SU/ATS the past five times that they were off a win of 28 or more. Conversely, the Golden Flashes are 6-3 ATS the past couple of seasons, when off b2b conf. losses, 3-1 ATS when off three straight conf. losses. While I like the Flashes' chances of an outright win, I'm grabbing the points. 

I'm playing on TENNESSEE. With Mahomes expected to come back, we're getting extra line value with the Titans. Its not always easy for a team when a star returns though. For one, the star can sometimes be rusty. However, regardless of whether or not thats the case, there can still be a natural letdown, as opposed to the expected boost, when a star comes back. The reality is that the Chiefs were playing really hard for Moore. They beat the Vikings last time out and were right there with the Packers in their previous game. So, QB wasn't really the problem. The Chiefs' weakness, as I see it, is their run defense.  Indeed, KC ranks 28th in rushing yards per attempt and just 29th in the league in terms of rushing yards allowed. Only Cleveland, Cincy and Miami are worse. That spells trouble against a Titan offense with a capable ground game. The Chiefs have seen six of their last seven games decided by seven or fewer points. Meanwhile, all four Titan home games have been decided by seven or fewer points, the last two here both decided by four or less. Speaking of tight games, the last two meetings between these teams were decided by 1 and 2 points. In what could well be another close one, I'm grabbing all the generous points. 

I'm playing on SOUTH CAROLINA. I believe that the Gamecocks are catching the Mountaineers at exactly the right time. Prior to last week, Appalachian State had a perfect record, a national ranking and huge dreams. All that changed with an upset loss against Georgia Southern last week. The common line of thinking is that previously undefeated teams tend to immediately bounce back after their first loss. However, I've often found that the opposite is true. Of course, winning this game was never going to be easy for the Mountaineers, regardless of what happened against Georgia Southern. The Gamecocks got their confidence back with a 24-7 win last time out and now they're getting some injured players back. With Texas A&M and Clemson on deck, this is absolutely a must win. Expect them to rise to the occasion, moving to 4-0 ATS as home favorites. 

I'm playing on DALLAS. With Barkley seemingly back to full health, many will be quick to back the Giants, getting points at home. Count me out. The Cowboys are favored for good reason. While the Giants allow more than 27 ppg, the Cowboys allow just 17.7. On the other side, the Giants score less than 20 per game while the Cowboys score more than 27. They've beaten the Giants five straight times. Three of those wins came by double-digits, all but one came by at least seven points. Arguably, the gap is bigger now than it has been in the past, too. The Giants have lost four straight. Their last losses came against the likes of Arizona and Detroit. The Cowboys, got back on track by trashing the Eagles 37-10 last time out. Every one of their victories has come by double-digits. In addition to the 27-point win over the Eagles, the Cowboys won by 25 and 10, while beating these same Giants by 18. While the Giants are off a tough loss, the Cowboys are off a bye. They've been money (23-12 ATS L35) in that situation over the years. They're a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS the past five times that they'd lost three of their previous four. Expect them to improve on those stats with another double-digit win. 

I'm playing on BALTIMORE. The Patriots have obviously gotten off to a great start. However, I expect them to receive their toughest test of the season yet on Sunday night. The Ravens are 8-4-1 ATS as underdogs the past 2+ seasons, winning six of those outright. Long known for its defense, Baltimore gives nothing away on offense in this matchup. The Ravens have scored 23 or more every game, averaging 30.6. In their three home games, they're averaging 444 yards. Overall, they average 434.9 yards per game. Thats more than the Pats, who average 370.1 yards per game, 340.1 on the road. While the Ravens may be 1-4-1 ATS their last six, their last 5-1 ATS the past six times that they'd failed to cover the spread in four, or five, of their previous six games. Expect AT LEAST another cover here. 

I'm playing on OLE MISS. Auburn is obviously the more talented team. Off last week's loss, many will expect the Tigers to bounce back with a blowout win. However, while I respect the Tigers, I believe this will prove to be a far tougher game than is being suggested by the line. Last week's loss at LSU was huge. Note that Auburn is 4-10-1 ATS its last 15, off a loss of three or fewer points. Up next, after a bye, is Georgia, another huge game. With this game sandwiched in between those two huge game and with the Tigers off three straight SEC road games, its going to be difficult for the Tigers to "get up." Four of the Rebels' five losses have come by 11 points or less. They're 3-1 ATS off a loss. While the Tigers are still thinking about what might have been - and whats to come ahead, the Rebels are off a bye and are going to be extremely focused on trying to get themselves a signature win. Look for the Rebels to come ready to play and for them to give their hosts all they can handle the entire way. 

I'm playing on WASHINGTON. While I respect the Utes, I believe they're going to run into a problem on Saturday afternoon. The last three games in this series have had scores of 10-3, 21-7 and 33-30, all in favor of the Huskies. Washington, 7-1 SU in November the past couple of seasons, is coming off a bye. They've had a full extra week off than the Utes. The Huskies could easily have a better record as they lost by one vs. Cal and by four vs. Oregon. The Utes did win big in their last game on the road. That was at Oregon State though. Prior to that, in their previous road game, they lost at USC. While I'll happily grab the points, I say the Huskies find a way of winning a close one here. 

I'm playing on UCONN. Admittedly, the Huskies aren't the best team around. However, playing at home on National TV, they're good enough to hang within four touchdowns of Navy. The Midshipmen are just 2-4 ATS as road favorites the past couple of seasons. The Huskies played Houston tough here in their last home game, losing by seven as a 21.5 point underdog. Then, they gained some confidence by beating up on the Minutemen. Look for them to carry the positive momentum into this evening's game, covering the big number and improving to 3-0 ATS the last three times that they were home underdogs of greater than 14 points. 

I'm playing on ARIZONA. You've probably heard about Garoppolo's impressive record as a starter. Thats only partly him. Football is a team game and the 49ers have been a very good team. Still, this is asking a lot. Here, they're playing on the road, playing on a short week, against a divisional opponent and laying more than a touchdown. They've also got a huge showdown vs. Seattle on deck. Note that the 49ers are just 6-11 ATS the past 17 times that they were road favorites in the -7.5 to -10 range. During that span, the Cards were 9-6 ATS as home underdogs in the 7.5 to 10 range. The Cards have dominated the 49ers in recent seasons, including five straight wins here at Arizona. With the last three meetings here all having been decided by a field goal, I'm grabbing the points. 

I'm playing on KC. While the Packers are off to a nice start, I expect them to have their hands full this evening. The Chiefs are a perfect 4-0 ATS the past four times that they were listed as road underdogs in the 3.5 to 9.5 range and they're 5-1-1 ATS their last seven as underdogs overall. True, Mahomes remains out. However, I truly believe that they can win with Moore behind center. Moore is a veteran and he is going to relish this opportunity. Moore has a great coach and is surrounded by plenty of weapons. Expect the Chiefs to rise to the occasion with AT LEAST a cover on Sunday night. 

I'm playing on ATLANTA. With Matt Ryan out, we're getting a lot of extra point with the Falcons. I feel thats providing excellent value. Matt Schaub has been around for years and knows how to win. Pete Carroll acknowledged as much saying: "They're explosive on offense. They got highlight players that we recognize and know. The running backs, receivers, the tight end, the QB. Matt Schaub is a renowned backup quarterback that has come off the bench for teams for years. He's got a winning record if he's the one that plays. Danny coaching the defense and Bob Sutton, a friend of ours that we know for years from KC and all that and years beyond. I have a lot of respect for what’s going on. I know, just watching the film and watching what we're up against, they're going to cause problems for us...." While the Hawks have indeed thrived on the road, they're off a 30-16 loss and two of their three road games have been decided by four or fewer points. An early game at Atlanta, for this West Coast based team, is not going to be as easy as many will be expecting. The Hawks lost by 16 last time they played here and then the teams played a 3-point game at Atlanta next. Grab the points and expect a motivated effort from the Falcons to bring them to 5-2 ATS the past seven times that they were off a game where they scored 14 or less.

I'm playing on UTAH STATE. Big game for both teams. In my opinion, its even bigger for the Aggies. I absolutely expect them to be ready. Indeed, unlike other teams and coaches, Coach Anderson prepares for this game all season long. He was quoted as saying: "Camp, spring ball, bye weeks, the day after Christmas. Whenever we find an opportunity to squeeze in a few moments of Air Force, we'll absolutely do it. You have to in my opinion." That gives Utah State over other Air Force opponents, as the Aggies are more prepared for the Falcons' unique attack. I like the fact that Air Force is off a late game at Hawaii last week. Thats a long way to go and something many of these kids aren't familiar with. The Aggies are playing with a lot of confidence. They've only lost twice this season. The first was by three points, at Wake Forest. The second was at LSU. No shame in that. They already responded to the LSU loss by crushing Nevada (36-10) last week. The Aggies have won at San Diego State. So, they know they can win on the road. They beat the Falcons by 10 last year after the previous season's game was decided by a field goal. With Air Force just 6-16 ATS over the years, when playing a home game with an O/U line in the 56.5 to 63 range, in a game where I expect the underdog to win outright, I'm happy to grab the points.

I'm playing on DUKE. I successfully played against the Blue Devils last week. So, I wasn't surprised to see them lose, at Virginia. However, I like how they match up - and how this game sets up - much better this week. While the Blue Devils got hammered at UVA, the Tar Heels suffered a far tougher loss. They fell 43-41 to the Hokies, at Blacksburg. In case you missed it, that was a wild 6-OT affair, the longest game in ACC history. To end up on the wrong side of it will be very tough to bounce back from. (UNC is 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS its last seven off a conference road loss.) Note that Duke also played at Lane Stadium; the Blue Devils crushed the Hokies 45-10. So, they know how to win on the road. Also, note that Duke is already 2-0 off a loss this season, winning 45-13 and 41-23. The Blue Devils are 8-2 ATS their last 10 as road underdogs and they're a perfect 3-0 ATs the past three times that they allowed 42 or more points in their previous game. The Blue Devils have had their way in this series recently. Catching the Heels at right time, expect that to continue Saturday afternoon. 

I'm playing on HOUSTON. Last year, when these teams met at Dallas, the Cougars were ranked #18 in the country. Favored by two touchdowns, they lost outright. Now, we've got a role reversal. This time, its the Mustangs who enter the game with the national ranking while listed as the road favorite. Like last year, I believe that the home underdog has a real shot at the outright win. While every game is now crucial for the Mustangs, while playing on a short week, it might be easy to look past Houston and ahead to Memphis. Either way, I expect them to have their hands full. Needless to say, the Cougars haven't forgotten last year. While this season has been a disappointment, a win tonight will do a great deal to salvage it. They're going to go all out to get it. I played on the Cougars the last time these teams met here and they rewarded me with a 35-22 win and cover. With the Mustangs just 1-6 ATS the past seven times that they played a road game with an O/U line of 63 or greater, I'm grabbing the points. 

I'm playing on NEW YORK. While the Patriots have been making it look easy, I expect them to finally receive a test on Monday night. The Jets, who covered at New England a month ago, come in confident. Last time out, they beat Dallas outright, a 24-22 win. Note that the Jets are 2-0 ATS the last couple of times that they were off a win off three or fewer points. During that span, they're also 6-2 ATS when avenging a loss of 14 or more points. Some might be surprised to learn that the Pats are just 6-12 ATS their last 18 as road favorites in the -7.5 to -10 range. Look for them to have their hands full in this one. 

*10 Non-Divisional GOM on Bears. I'm playing on CHICAGO. Naturally, I respect the Saints. They came through big for me two weeks ago against Tampa. Last week, their defense helped me cash an important 'under,' allowing just six points and 226 total yards. Still, this is a very tough spot. Playing the second of b2b road games, I expect the travel and absence of Brees to finally catch up with them. Note that Kamara, currently questionable, appears unlikely to be ready, as he has yet to practice. Either way, the Bears are going to be in a hostile mood after blowing the game against the Raiders. They've had two weeks to prepare for this one. The Bears, who hope to have Trubisky back, are tough at home. Look for them to improve to 14-5-1 ATS their last 20 here. 

I'm playing on WASHINGTON. While the 49ers are off to a fantastic start, I believe that this will prove to be a very tough spot. This is a West-Coast based team, playing an early game, its second straight on the road, while coming off a huge win over a division rival. Off to a perfect start, it'll be easy for the 49ers to start patting themselves on the back a bit. It may not have been overly impressive, but the Skins did get a win last game. That gives them some positive momentum coming in. With a pair of road games on deck, the Skins know they need to take advantage of the scheduling advantage here. They're 4-1 ATS (5-0 SU) their last five against the NFC West. Expect them to give their guests all they can handle. 

I'm playing on UTAH. The Utes are the superior team. They're playing at home. They're on a roll. Importantly, they've also got payback on their minds. Not only did the Sun Devils beat Utah 38-20 at ASU last season but they also beat the Utes by a 30-10 score, right here, the previous season. Utah, which was favored by -10 points for that game, hasn't forgotten. The Utes have only lost one game this season. That was at USC. Their other five games have all resulted in victories and ALL have come by more than 17 points. While the Sun Devils are off b2b upset wins, they're 0-2 ATS the past couple of seasons, when off b2b SU victories when listed as underdogs. The Utes are 16-9 ATS their last 25 as favorites. Determined to avenge the recent losses, exepct them to keep the pedal to the metal the entire way, en route to another convincing win. 

I'm playing on UNLV. The Bulldogs got hammered last time out, a 42-24 loss at Air Force. They're 1-2 ATS off a conference loss the past couple of seasons and they haven't won a game by more than 14 points this year. The Rebels bring some positive momentum into this game and they'll be confident. Last time out, playing on the road against an SEC team and listed as 16-point underdogs, they won 34-10. Granted, it was Vanderbilt. Still, that was an impressive win. The Rebels are quietly 10-4 ATS their last 14 as road underdogs. The Rebels won outright, as 3-TD underdogs, the last time that they played here. Grab the points. 

I'm playing on LA. The Steelers have been good for so long that its hard for many to accept reality; this is currently a bad team. Indeed, the Steelers have been bad on both sides of the ball - and on special teams. Granted, the Chargers haven't been much better. They're working with a lot more though, while also playing at home - and I believe that their season can still be salvaged. Of course, with b2b road games on deck, that requires that the Chargers take care of business here. I expect them to do just that. The Chargers have failed to covers in three of their past four. They're a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS in that situation (after having failed to cover 3 of previous 4) the past couple of seasons though. During that span, they're also 4-0-1 ATS when playing a game with an O/U line in the 35.5 to 42 range. Expect the Chargers to take advantage of their banged-up and struggling guests, bouncing back with a much-needed, momentum-building double-digit win. 

I'm playing on UTSA. While I successfully backed the Blazers in their last game, I feel that they're laying too many points this week. Last week's game was at home. This week, the Blazers are on the road. Off last week's big win and facing a team which they hammered last season, I believe that the Blazers will be ripe for a letdown this week. That'll prove costly though. UTSA is off its best game, arguably, in recent memory, a 26-16 win at UTEP. While the Blazers will be without their starting running back, the Roadrunners ran for more than 300 yards last week. The offensive line dominated and true freshman Sincere McCormick put up a program record 189 yards. The Roadrunners deep and experienced defensive line is also off an excellent game. The Roadrunners, who brought back considerably more starters from last year than did the Blazers, haven't forgotten last year's 52-3 shellacking at UAB. They played the Blazers tough here the previous season though, a 24-19 game. Note that UAB is just 10-19-1 ATS the past 30 times it was listed as a road favorite. Hungry for a "signature win," expect the Roadrunners to give their guests all they can handle once again. 

I'm playing on NEW YORK. Every year, some suggest that this will be the year that the Pats take a step back. It never seems to happen. They keep rolling, year after year. Here we are, October 10th and they're already 5-0. Three of the five wins came by more than 16 points, too. Is it really that easy? I don't think so. With all due respect to the Pats, they've faced a pretty soft early schedule. The Steelers, Redskins and Dolphins, the three teams that they beat by more than 16, are a combined 1-13. The Jets, another team they faced, are also 0-4. So, thats four opponents which are a combined 1-17. The only team with a decent record (Buffalo) gave the Pats all they could handle and lost by only six. The Giants are below .500 However, they do at least have a couple of wins under their belt. The Giants faced Buffalo, New England's hardest opponent to date. But, unlike the Pats, the Giants have also faced other winning teams like the Vikings and Cowboys. Off a sub-par performance against Minnesota, I expect them to bounce back with a much better effort here. Note that the Giants are 9-3 ATS their last 12 after scoring 14 or fewer points in their previous game, 6-2 ATS when off a double-digit home loss. I believe that the line is a bit inflated and I'm grabbing the points.

I'm playing on NEW ORLEANS. The Bucs were sure impressive last week. Nobody could have imagined them going to LA and dropping 55 points on the Rams. Impressive as that was, its important not to over-react to one game. I feel that has happened here. If the Bucs hadn't been so impressive, they'd be a bigger underdog here. In other words, last week's result has worked in our favor, in terms of line value. (The Saints were -10 for last year's game here and -7 the previous season.) Keep in mind that the Bucs also gave up 40 points. They've now allowed more than 30 in three of their four games. This is also a tough travel and scheduling spot for them. Off the win at the West Coast, they now play an early game in the Eastern Time Zone. Its their second straight road game and third road game in the past four weeks. Last season, when playing the second of b2b road games, the Bucs were 0-3. (One of those b2b spots had a bye in between the games.) Each of those losses came by a minimum of five points - and they didn't have to fly from the West Coast the previous week. The Saints are off a dominant defensive effort against an elite team, holding Dallas to 10 points. While they won that one on the strength of their defense, they won the previous week's game on the strength of their offense. They've shown that they can win without Brees. The Bucs are 1-5 ATS (0-6 SU) the last six times that they had won two of their previous three. They're also 1-4 SU/ATS the past five times that they were off a double-digit road win in a game where they were listed as underdogs of six or more points. The Saints, on the other hand, are now a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS the past five times that they were off an upset victory. They were also a perfect 7-0 SU/ATS in October the past couple of seasons. Thats a combined 12-0. I expect them to keep on rolling, covering the small number along the way.

I'm playing on UAB. The Owls, now 0-5, are off a very tough loss last week. Fighting hard for its first win, Rice took LA Tech to OT last week. The Owls had a 14-7 lead at half. They were up 17-14 with less than two minutes remaining. They even held the lead (20-17) in OT. However, it was LA Tech which ultimately prevailed. While the Owls have battled, those are the type of losses that can be tough to recoved from, especially for a winless team starting to lose hope. I believe they're going to be susceptible to get blown out here. UAB is 3-0 ATS is last three off a conference loss and 7-1 ATS its last eight October games. The Blazers are also 11-3 ATS (14-0 SU!) their last 14 at home, as they have one of the longest home winning streaks around. Though they lost at WKU last week, the Blazers beat South Alabama by a score of 35-3 their last time on this field. The Blazers won 42-0 at Rice last season and 52-21 here the previous season. They're fully capable of bouncing back and blowing out a demoralized Owls team, once again. Expect them to do just that, keeping the streak in tact with another double-digit win. 

I'm playing on CINCINNATI. I won with the Bengals last week and I'm coming right back with them again here. When you think of the Steelers' offense of recent seasons, you think of names like Rothlisberger, Bell and Brown. The Bengals won't have to face any of them. Bell has moved on. Brown is recently out of the league. Big Ben is hurt. The Steelers are off a very tough loss and off that loss, had to travel back from the West Coast. They're 0-3 on the season. The last two losses came by two and four points. Those can be difficult to bounce back from. The Bengals have now seen two of their three games decided by four or less. They lost by just three against a much better Pittsburgh team here last season. That makes it three of the past five meetings in the series which have been decided by four or fewer points, four of those five decided by a TD or less. The Bengals are now 13-5 ATS their last 18 on the road. In what should be another close one, grab the points. 

I'm playing on UTAH. While both teams lost last week, the Cougars' loss is going to be more difficult to bounce back from. In case you missed it WSU blew a 49-17 lead and went on to lose 67-63, the highest scoring game in Pac-12 history. Coach Leach commented: "Our guys got frantic and panicked. We collapsed in every phase of the game." Off that type of "collapse," I believe its going to difficult to play at this tough venue. The Utes have had an extra day of preparation (Utah played 9/20 while WSU played 9/21.) The Utes have payback on their minds as they lost at WSU last season and as the Cougars beat them here two years ago. The Utes are 8-3 ATS (10-1 SU) their last 11, as home favorites, 2-0 ATS as home favorites of seven on less. They're also 4-1 ATS their last five off a road loss, 3-0 ATS off a road loss when they were favored. Expect them to improve on those stats Saturday. 

I'm playing on NEBRASKA. Last week's results have helped to provide us with excellent value with the home underdog. The Buckeyes absolutely destroyed Miami Ohio while the Huskers barely eked out a win against Illinois. However, Illinois is actually a pretty decent team, at the least, the Illini are much stronger than Miami Ohio. Plus, Nebraska was on the road, while Ohio State was at home. I like the fact that the Huskers rallied to pull it off last week and that they had to fight to do it. While Ohio State has yet to be tested, the Huskers have now been involved in two close ones (both on the road) and that close game experience figures to serve them well. (Both home games have resulted in double-digit wins.) Speaking of close games, you may recall that Ohio State was a 17-point favorite for last year's game. However, it was the Huskers who were up 21-16 at halftime. The Buckeyes managed to escape with a 36-31 win but the cover was never in doubt for Nebraska. Its the first evening game for Ohio State all season; Lincoln can be a tough place to play and the crowd is going to be extremely fired up. Note that its the first ESPN "Gameday" at Lincoln in more than a decade. The Buckeyes are 0-2 ATS the past couple of times that they were off three consecutive covers. Expect them to have their hands full the entire way. 

I'm playing on ASU. Both these teams have been involved in some close ones lately. Cal is off a big emotional/controversial win over an SEC opponent in the Eastern time zone. The Bears hung on to win by eight. However, the game down to the final play. Note that Cal is just 1-3 ATS its last four off a road upset. The Bears previous two games were decided by six (against North Texas) and by just one, at Washington. Even their game against Cal Davis was relatively close, 14-point win. Likewise, ASU is off b2b 3-point games. I see another potentially close one, which makes the points very attractive. The Sun Devils have won at Michigan State. That was in front of more than 70,000 fans and a national TV audience. They're not afraid of the moment. Look for ASU to give its hosts all they can handle once again, improving to 7-2-1 ATS its last 10 as a road underdog.

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. The Lions are going to find an angry and hungry Eagles team. Philly knows it let one get away against Atlanta. The Eagles also know that four of their next five come on the road. In other words, they can ill afford to drop this one. Undefeated (1-0-1) through two games and with three of their next four at home, the Lions may not be feeling the same sense of urgency. True, the Eagles are a bit banged-up at the receiver position. However, thats an area where they're pretty deep and this is a team which likes to spread it around. Even if Jackson and/or Jeffery are out, Wentz still has the likes of Ertz and Agholor to work with. The Lions may have won last week but they still scored only 13 points. That won't cut it here. Note that they're just 1-4 SU/ATS the past five times that they scored 14 or less in their previous game. During that span, the Eagles are 4-2 ATS (5-1 SU) when off a loss of six points or less. Expect them to improve on those stats with a double-digit win on Sunday afternoon. 

I'm playing on UCLA. The Bruins' tough start has led to an extremely generous line, one which I feel is providing us with excellent value. When these teams last met, the Cougars were double-digit favorites but won by only six. I look for this one to also prove close. The Bruins first two games were both decided by 10 points or less. Sure, Oklahoma beat them by more than that. However, I don't put WSU in the class of the Sooners. Keep in mind this is an experienced UCLA team, one chomping at the bit to turn its season around. The Cougars, who won by only seven last time out, have a huge game against Utah on deck. Look for the Bruins to provide a much tougher game than many will be expecting, moving to 3-0 ATS their last three, after trailing by 17 or more points at the end of the first half of their previous game. 

I'm playing on TEXAS. The Cowboys have been living a lie. Their games have come against Oregon State, McNeese State and Tulsa. To their credit, they've taken care of business. However, the fact remains that they were double-digit favorites for each of those games, despite two of them coming on the road. Now, however, they're stepping up in class considerably while playing their third road game in the past four weeks. I expect reality to set in. While the Longhorns came up short vs. LSU, they rebounded by crushing Rice last game. They also hammered LA Tech in the first game. The Longhorns have a score to settle, as OSU has had their number of late. Back-to-back 3-point losses in the series have been particularly tough to swallow. This is a highly motivated Texas team, one which is 5-0 ATS its last five, off b2b non-conf. games. Expect them to get some payback, covering the relatively small number and moving to 4-1 ATS the past five times that they were a home faovrite of seven or less. 

I'm playing on TULANE. The Green Wave have a lot going for them here. They're off an absolute blowout (58-6) of Missouri State. That lopsided game allowed them to rest starters in the second half, preparing for this one. It was also at home, meaning no travel for the short week. On the other hand, Houston is off an emotional and hard-fought loss against Washington State. The Cougars left it all on the field for that one and may well experience a letdown because of. Note that they're 4-9 ATS the past couple of seasons, off an ATS cover, 0-1 ATS when off an ATS cover where the team lost SU as an underdog. Tulane is 9-4 ATS over the years, off a home blowout win of 28 or more. The home team has had the advantage in this series of late. Expect that to be the case again this evening, Tulane covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on NEW YORK. The injury to QB Darnold has created plenty of value with the home underdog Jets. While they may have been a popular choice to win the Super Bowl, the Browns didn't look good at all in Week. Asking them to go on the road and to cover this many points is asking a lot. The Jets still have a bigtime back in Bell. Their defense was arguably much stronger than Cleveland's in Week 1. Speaking of the Browns' defense, Cleveland is missing some players on that side of the ball. Saftey Randall is out, as is linebacker Taylor. Defensive End Smith may still not play either, though he has returned to practice. Either way, I expect Siemian and the Jets offense to have some success. Though the Jets defense is missing a key player in Mosley, the entire unit figures to be fired up. Remember, their defensive coordinator Gregg Williams used to be the def. coordinator for Cleveland. Jets' safety Jamal Adams noted: "Obviously, he has a chip on his shoulder about this game. We're going to go out there and play for him. He's going to be all riled up.'' Desperate to avoid falling to 0-2, expect the Jets to give their guests all they can handle. 

I'm playing on WMU. Georgia State is off to a 2-0 start, including the upset of Tennessee, so is likely going to be a popular pick. However, I feel that the Broncos are favored for good reason and I expect them to bring the Panthers back down to earth. These same teams met at Georgia State last season. Despite playing on the road, the Broncos literally ran all over the Panthers, clearly outclassing them. For the game, they had a 294-58 edge in yards on the ground. They dominated in first downs and time of possession, en route to a decisive 34-15 win. While the win over the Vols was indeed impressive, giving up 42 points against Furman last week wasn't. With the Panthers just 1-8 SU/ATS the past nine times that they allowed 37 or more in their previous game, I'm laying the points and expecting another double-digit win for the Broncos. 

I'm playing TAMPA. Both teams are going to be hungry and both will be extremely anxious to avoid falling to 0-2. A close first half won't surprise. The Panthers managed only three points in the first half of last week's game here and were trailing 14-3 at the break. The Bucs got off to a better start, they were up 7-6 at the break of their game. Getting more than a field goal with the visitors for the first half, I'm grabbing the points. 

I'm playing on MIAMI. Admittedly, the Dolphins don't have the talent that their fans would like. However, Week 1 is a different animal. The Fish haven't written off their season yet and they'll be coming ready to play. With the betting public hearing about how bad the Dolphins are going to be, the line has climbed from its opener. Getting all those points, for the home opener, provides us with excellent value. Keep in mind that the Ravens have struggled in the road favorite role over the years. Look for Fitzpatrick, who beat out Rosen for the starting job in the preseason and who is starting for his eighth team (an NFL record) to keep the Dolphins in it the entire way, with a great shot at the outright upset.

I'm playing on USC (10* PAC 12 GAME OF YEAR). As you may have heard, the Trojans lost their QB (Daniels) for the season last week. That means true freshman Kedon Slovis gets the call. The good news for Slovis is that he got some action last week, completing six of eight passes and that he's now had a full week to prepare, knowing that he'll be getting the start. While many are writing off USC with him behind center, new offensive coordinator Graham Harrell had this to say of Slovis: "I think, talent-wise, he's as good as I've ever seen..." Meanwhile, Stanford's QB (K.J. Costello) took a hard hit to the head last week and remains questionable, as of this writing. Thats a big blow, if he can't go, or isn't 100% healthy, as he led the Pac-12 in passing efficiency last season. Regardless of who is behind center for the Cardinal, they'll be without the services of all-conference left tackle Walter Little. Another huge blow. Losses to starters are particularly significant for the Cardinal as they didn't return many starters from last season in the first place. The home team has had its way in this rivalry of late. The Cardinal won at Stanford last year, the Trojans get some payback at home this year. 

I'm playing on OKLAHOMA. While everyone knows that the Sooners no longer have Murray as their QB, the cupboard is far from bare. The Sooners still have their offensive system in place and their offense is going to be just fine. Hurts takes over and he's got weapons at his disposal. Keep in mind that Oklahoma has averaged more than 45 ppg since 2015, leading the nation in most offensive categories during that span. On the other side of the ball, the Sooners brought back plenty of starters on defense. Speaking of defense, Houston is a team which doesn't play much of it. The Cougars are 3-7 ATS the past 10 times that they were road underdogs in the 21.5 to 28 point range. Oklahoma, meanwhile, is 7-3 ATS its last 10, when playing a home game with an O/U line of 63 or greater. I'm expecting the Sooners to win in a blowout.

I'm playing on WSU. At first glance, this line may appear a little higher. However, the reality is that it could be even higher, as this is an absolute mismatch. The poor Aggies, who will also have to play road games at Alabama and Ole Miss, know it. Coach Martin had this to say about the Aggies extremely tough schedule: "Football pays the bills. We're getting quite a bit of money to play Alabama and Ole Miss and Washington State. We understand that football has that priority ... This is one of the only years we'll ever play three power conference games. We'd like to stay away from that and limit that to two. It makes it more realistic for us. This is one of those challenging years and we’re going to accept it." Indeed. The Cougars have advantages all over their field. True, they lost last year's QB. However, the offense returned just about everyone else. The receiving corps is stacked, the offensive line is great. The offense will again be potent. The defense's weakness last year was against the run. However, they're going to be winning so much here that the Aggies are going to need to attempt to throw. It won't be pretty. The Cougars are out to prove last year wasn't a fluke. I expect them to keep the pedal to the metal the entire way, starting the season with a "statement blowout win."

I'm playing on LIBERTY. This is a dangerous game for Syracuse. Hugh Freeze takes over for the Flames. While he did have some past recruiting violation issues, Freeze also brings a winning attitude and a history of success. Freeze was 39-25 at Ole Miss with a couple of bowl wins. Prior to that, he was 10-2 at Arkansas State. Freeze inherited plenty of offensive talent. The Flames averaged better than 33 ppg last season and they return their top passer,  top rusher and top receiver. QB Calvert threw for more than 3000 yards in 12 games, finding the end zone 22 times. While last year's defense was admittedly pretty soft, Freeze's team does bring back five of its top six tacklers. The Orange, who lose QB Dungey who had a lot of heart and more than 9000 career passing yards, will score some points, probably quite a few of them. However, I expect the Flames to be able to keep up. The Orange gave up some big plays last year and they've got a lot of new faces on defense. Syrcause coach Babers acknowledged as much: "The first game that we have is a quality opponent with an outstanding head coach that’s known for his offensive genius. It's going to be a difficult game for us, especially since we don’t have any tape of him with that personnel." Regardless of what Babers may say to his team, with Maryland on deck next week, followed by a huge game vs Clemson after that, the Orange could easily overlook the Flames. In a game which I feel will be a lot closer than most will be expecting, I'm grabbing the points. 

I'm playing on MICHIGAN STATE. Determined to make a statement, I see the Spartans keeping the pedal to the metal the entire way in this one. Tulsa's inexperienced offensive line is going to lead to trouble against the superior Spartan defenders all evening long. That will lead to problems for both the Tulsa throwing and running game. While Tulsa has a couple of decent backs, the Spartans are dominant against the rush. The Spartans struggled offensively last season and this is an opportunity to show that this year will be different. Tulsa allowed an average of 34.5 ppg on the road last season. Expect a blowout. 

I'm playing on FLORIDA. While these rivals haven't met since 2013, I expect the Gators to have a significant advantage in the season opener at Orlando. The Hurricanes would love to get their 'new era' off to a winning start and beating Florida would sure be a great way to do it. Thats asking an awful lot though. Consider that Miami has a new coach, a new offensive coordinator and a ton of new players. The Gators, on the other hand, are off a 10-win season under Dan Mullen. The Gators are looking to build off that and have the pieces in place to do so. They know if they can beat Georgia, that the sky's the limit for them. It all starts here, however. Speaking of Mullen, don't forget that he was passed over for the Miami coaching job. Twice, in fact. Whatever he may say, winning big is going to feel extra special. Expect the Gators, 6-2 ATS their last eight non-conf games, to win by double-digits. 

I'm playing on LA (10* GAME OF YEAR). Admittedly, the Rams are fortunate to be here. That doesn't mean that they're not the better team though. Much has changed since Brady and Goff met two years ago, a 26-10 win for the Patriots. Both QBs have gotten older, a good thing for Goff's development but not necessarily for Brady. Goff had Gurley back then. However, he also had Jeff Fisher (tied for most reg. season losses in NFL history) coaching him and nearly everything else has changed, too. The Rams are stronger across the board then they were. The same cannot necessarily be said of the Pats. The Rams averaged 32.4 ppg this season, the Pats averaged 28.6. While not many will make mention of it, I believe that the environment (stadium) helps LA and I like that the Rams are coming off a game in New Orleans as compared to the Patriots coming off a very cold game at Arrowhead. The Aaron Donald factor on defense needs to be mentioned; he can and does change games. It also needs to be noted that the Rams were a perfect 4-0 against the AFC this season, including wins against the Chiefs and Chargers, the two teams that N.E. beat to get here. Look for the Rams to prove to be the better team Sunday. 

I'm playing on KC (10* GAME OF THE WEEK). Playing at home, the Patriots managed a 43-40 win when these teams met in the shootout. On a chilly Sunday at Arrowhead, I expect the Chiefs to have their revenge. They're saying this will likely be the coldest playoff game ever played here. I expect that to benefit the hard-hitting home team. We know about Mahomes and the offense; the Chiefs 35.1 ppg was #1 in the NFL. (New England ranked 4th at 28.1 ppg.) However, I also really liked what I saw from the Chiefs' defense last week, as they absolutely dominated Luck and the Colts. The Pats were 0-3 SU/ATS on the road this season, when the O/U line was 49.5 or greater. The Chiefs, 4-2 ATS as home favorites of -3 or less, got the playoff monkey off their backs last week. Demons exorcised, expect them to ride the positive momentum right into the Super Bowl.