Sports Picks & Predictions

I'm playing on CLEVELAND 8* MAIN EVENT. Lebron and co. brought the city a championship. The Indians came up short but are still heroes. The Browns continue to let Cleveland down. Admittedly, they have been pretty bad. This is a "big game" for them though. Not only are the Ravens a hated rival - remember the Browns once reloacted to Baltimore - but this is a chance to show the world, on National TV, that they're not as bad as their record suggests. The Ravens only average 19.2 points per game, just 17.7 here at Baltimore. Needless to say, that makes covering a big number like this one difficult. Note that the Ravens are just 8-14-3 ATS the last 25 times that they were laying points. The Browns actually average more points (and yards) on the road than the Ravens do at home. They're averaging 19.4 ppg and 358 ypg when playing away from Baltimore. The Browns always seem to get up for the Ravens and they played them tough again in both meetings last season, both those games being decided by six or fewer points. In fact, that makes it 10 straight games in this series which were decided by 10 or fewer points, seven of those decided by a TD or less. Throw in the fact that the Ravens have yet to win a game by more than a TD this season and I'm grabbing all those generous points. 

I'm playing on GEORGIA SOUTHERN 10* PERS FAV. The Eagles broke through with a "cover" at Ole Miss last week, putting up more than 400 yards of offense. Returning home and stepping down in class, for a game which they badly need to win, I expect them to follow it up with a blowout win. I say that the Eagles "badly" need the game as they're 4-5 at the moment and need wins to have a shot at a bowl. Their next game is on the road and their final game is against Troy, a team which has currently won six straight. In other words, they need to take advantage here. The Cajuns aren't that good these days and are headed towards a second straight losing season. They've dropped four of their last five, the last two of those losses coming by double-digits. The lone win came vs. Texas State, the worst team in the conference. The fact that both teams are on a short week figures to favor the home team. In my opinion, the Eagles are stronger on both sides of the ball. They're healthier and I expect them to also be hungrier. I'm expecting a double-digit win.

I'm playing on NORTHERN ILLINOIS 10* MAC ATTACK. Four of the last five meetings between these teams have been decided by seven points or less, Northern Illinois winning all five. While its Toledo which is favored this time round, I'm expecting another close one. With this game being played on the South Side of Chicago, the Rockets will be playing the second of b2b games away from home. They failed to cover the only other time that they were in that situation this season, a non-cover at Eastern Michigan on 10.8. The Huskies got off to a slow start but have turned their season around. The Huskies are averaging 39 ppg their last three games, compared to the Rockets' 35 over their last three. While Toledo is fighting to try and catch Western Michigan, NIU is fighting to stay its bowl hopes alive. I'm grabbing the generous points. 

I'm playing on BALL STATE 10* BEST BET. This is a very big game for both teams. Eastern Michigan badly wants a victory, as one more would make them bowl eligible. Off back-to-back losses, losers of three of their last four and playing their regular season home finale, the Cardinals should also be extremely hungry. I expect them to have the advantage against an Eastern Michigan team which is coming off two consecutive losses of its own. While the Eagles gained 33 yards on the ground last time out, the third time in four games they ran for less than 90 yards, the Cards have run for more than 250 yards on the ground in each of their last three games, 298, 256 and 356. The Cards have owned the Eagles over the years. With an edge on the ground and the venue in their favor, I'm expecting more of the same Tuesday night.

I'm playing on SF 10* BEST BET. Its true that the 49ers have been pretty bad of late. Its also true that they've cost me a couple of times. That said, I look at each game/team on a game-by-game basis, without bias. After doing so, I believe that that the 49ers are offering us excellent value this week. The Saints aren't the same team on the road. They've won only one road game and that win came by a single point. They only average 23 points on the road and they're an ugly 1-8 ATS that they were favored in the -3.5 to -9.5 range, including an 0-2 ATS mark on the road in that -3.5 to -7.5 range. While the Saints are off a hard-fought win over Seattle, the 49ers are well-rested, coming off a bye. I believe it came at the right time and I look for them to step up with at least a cover. 

I'm playing on NY 10* DIV GAME OF MONTH. This is a huge game in the NFC East. History would suggest that the Eagles might have the advantage. After all, they swept the Giants last season and have had plenty of success here in recent seasons. That history has worked to our advantage here, in my opinion. Despite the fact that these teams are currently going in opposite directions, we're able to get the Giants at a very reasonable number. Off b2b wins, the Giants bring some positive momentum into Sunday's game. The Eagles are off a hard-fought OT loss against Dallas and have now dropped three or four. While its true that the Eagles have fared well off a divisional setback the past couple of seasons, those "type" of losses can be difficult to bounce back from. When I say "those type of games," I'm referring to the fact that last week's was a game in which the Eagles had outplayed the Cowboys (most of the way) and in which they held a 10-point fourth quarter lead. To blow that type of game against a hated rival figures to be difficult to bounce back from. A look at the numbers shows that the Giants are outgaining opponents by a 436.3 to 360.7 margin when listed as the home team while the Eagles are being outgained by a 370.2 to 289 margin on the road. After the Eagles started out hot, there were some comparisons of Wentz to Peyton Manning. While those comparisons have mostly stopped lately, I look for brother Eli to get the better of the rookie here. 

I'm playing on OHIO STATE 10* GOW. While the Buckeyes are off four straight pointspread losses, I expect them to break out with a big win and cover Saturday evening. The Huskers had hoped to come into this game with an undefeated record. However, they lost at Wisconsin (in OT) last week, their first setback of the season. Losing the first game, for a team which had dreams (even if those dreams were unrealistic) of an undefeated season can be difficult to bounce back from. The Buckeyes can attest to that fact. After getting upset at Penn State a couple of games ago, they struggled to "get up" for Northwestern last game, winning by only four. They did win though and now can move forward. I believe they're ready for a break-through performance while the Huskers, playing their second straight road game, may still be thinking about "what could have been." The Buckeyes are more skilled and have more depth. Look for Meyer to have them ready to deliver a blowout. 

I'm playing on GEORGIA. Off back-to-back losses, if history is any indication, the Bulldogs figure to be a dangerous team. Indeed, they're 16-5 ATS (19-2 SU) the last 21 times that they were off b2b losses. During the same stretch, they're 12-4 SU/ATS as a road favorite of three or fewer points and 19-6 SU/ATS when playing a road game with an O/U line in the 49.5 to 56 range. During that period, Kentucky was an ugly 4-9 ATS as a home underdog of three or fewer points. The Bulldogs dominated Kentucky last season, as they did the year before. I still believe they're the stronger team and I expect them to demonstrate that Sat. evening. 

I'm playing on K-STATE 10* BIG 12 GOM. I won with the Cowboys last Saturday, so am well aware that they're rolling right now. However, I expect that roll to come to an abrupt end on Saturday afternoon. While the Cowboys do indeed have a potent offense, the Cats arguably have one of the best defenses in the country. Despite playing in the high-scoring Big 12, the Cats are allowing a respectable 21.6 ppg and 362.2 ypg. Here at home, where the Cats are a perfect 4-0, they're allowing a mere 16.5 ppg and 300.2 ypg. That compares very favorably to the 27.5 ppg and 488.5 ypg that the Cowboys are allowing on the road this season. While the K-State offense may not be flashy, they still average 41.5 ppg here. While the Cowboys are 4-6-2 ATS on the road the past couple of years, the Cats are 11-6-1 ATS (14-4 SU) at home. The Cowboys won a close one (36-34) at Stillwater last season. However, the Wildcats hammered them when they last played here at Manhattan. In fact, they're 7-1 SU/ATS the last eight meetings here. I'm expecting more of the same here. 

I'm playing on CHICAGO. As you're probably aware, the Bears have really struggled this season. In fact, they've got just one win in seven tries. Meanwhile, the Vikings are an impressive 5-1 SU/ATS on the season. Those records alone may have some expecting a blowout win for the Vikes. After all, the Bears are essentially already "playing out the string" while Minnesota will be playoff bound, if it continues to win at its current pace. Winning on the road in the NFL is rarely easy though, particularly when being asked to beat a hated divisional opponent by a fairly wide margin. I expect the Bears to treat this one like its their "Super Bowl." This is a chance for them to show the world that they're not as bad as everyone believes them to be. While the Minnesota D is indeed formidable, the return of Cutler, who has only played two games, figures to provide a boost to the Bears' offense. Due to having played on a Thursday last time out - a game which saw them embarrassed on National TV - the Bears have had plenty of extra time to prepare for this one. The Vikings, who won by just three here last season after losing by eight the year before, are playing back-to-back road games for the first time this season. They finally came back down to earth last week and I expect them to have their hands full against a determind Bears team the entire way. Look for Cutler and co. to improve to 3-0 ATS the last three times that they played a game where the O/U line ranged from 35.5 to 42. 

I'm playing on CAROLINA 10* PERS FAV. While I certainly respect the Cardinals, the Panthers have a lot going for them here. For starters, I believe that Carolina is a lot better than its (1-5) record suggests. The Panthers and their players believe that too. Unlike other teams with similar records, they still believe that they can run the table and make the playoffs. Playing in the AFC South helps. At 4-3, the Falcons are the only team in the division above .500. That said, the Panthers know that they're in "must win" territory. They can't afford another loss here. While the Panthers are off a bye, the Cards are off a Sunday night game up in the Pacific Northwest, a hard-fought battle that ended in a tie, one which came against their most hated division rival. Now, they travel across the country to play an early game against a rested and hungry Carolina team which is still 16-6 its last 22 here. Look for the Panthers to put it all together, improving to 7-1 SU/ATS their last eight as home favorites of -3 or fewer points. 

I'm playing on OREGON 10* BLOWOUT OF THE WEEK. For the first time in two decades, the Ducks have lost five straight. However, I expect this to be the week where they "get healthy" again. While the defense remains a concern, Oregon has found its QB; Justin Herbert threw six TD passes last game, the Ducks scoring 49 points. Sure, it resulted in a tough 52-49 loss, at Cal. The Ducks showed a lot of heart though, rallying from 21-0 and 34-14 deficits. As that was a Friday game, they've had an extra day to recover and prepare for this one. The Sun Devils, who are also "defensively-challenged" and who are also off b2b losses of their own, are banged-up on both sides of the ball, including at the QB position. Starting QB Manny Wilkins has been banged-up a lot and he got hurt again last game. While his status remains uncertain as of this writing, it appears entirely possible that he could miss the game. With their backup QB already out, that means inexperienced true freshman Sterling-Cole would get the call. Regardless of who is behind center for the Sun Devils, it looks like they may also be without their starting center once again. A.J. McCollum missed last week's game due to a persona matter. Regardless, I expect the Sun Devils to have trouble keeping up with Herbert and the rejuvenated Oregon offense. With three of their final four on the road - and the lone remaining home game coming against Stanford - the Ducks know they absolutely need to take advantage of this winnable game. I expect them to do just that, pulling away for a double-digit "blowout" win. 

I'm playing on OKLAHOMA STATE. With a 6-0 record, the Mountaineers and their fans are starting to get pretty excited. I expect them to suffer their first loss this week though. After a slow start, the Cowboys have turned the corner. They've won three straight, starting with an 18-point win over Texas and ending with a 24-point win last week over Kansas. While that may not have been as impressive as WVU's 24-point over TCU, the Cowboys are still a team full of confidence right now, one which is excited at the prospects of handing WVU its first loss. Keep in mind that the Mountaineers have only played one "true" road game (Texas Tech) all season. They're 6-5 SU (5-6 ATS) their last 11 on the road, while the Cowboys are 13-5 SU at home, during the same time. Including an upset loss against the Cowboys (at WVU) last October, the Mountaineers are just 4-7 ATS in October the last 2+ seasons. While the Mountaineers, who weren't ranked to begin the season and who weren't expected to be this good, have been tough on both sides of the ball, the Cowboys can score with the best of them. They're strong on special teams and very well-coached. Grab the points but don't be surprised to see an outright upset. 

I'm playing on SOUTH FLORIDA 10* ESPN SPECIAL. Admittedly, this season hasn't gone as planned for the Bulls. At one point, they had aspirations of an undefeated season. However, those dreams didn't last long, as they were beaten soundly by Floirda State on 9/24. Note that the Bulls, who lost their second game last week, bounced back from their first loss with arguably their best game of the season, a 45-20 destruction of Cincinnati, when listed as a -7-point favorite. Friday's game offers the Bulls a chance to again bounce back, while avenging a loss at Navy last season. With the game being televised on ESPN2, it also offers them a chance to show the world how good they really are. As per usual, Navy has a strong running attack. The Midshipmen will surely put up some fairly big numbers on the ground. I believe that the Navy defense, which has allowed an average of 32 points and 448 yards its last three games, is vulnerable though. While the Midshipmen are off b2b impressive wins, their last road game resulted in a 14-point loss against Air Force. Note that they're working on a short-week here while USF, which played last Friday, works on a "normal" week. This is "gut check" time for the Bulls, a team with plenty of seniors. I look for them to make things right, bouncing back and improving to 6-2 ATS when listed as favorites. 

I'm playing on JACKSONVILLE 10* AFC SOUTH “GOM.” These teams have been involved in a number of very close games in recent seasons. While I like the Jags' chances of winning outright, another tight one won't surprise on Thursday. That makes getting an extra field goal, or more, an appealing proposition. The last four meetings have all been decided by eight or fewer points. The two games here at Tennessee have both been decided by a field goal of less. The Titans won 42-39 here last season and 16-14 the previous year. The Jags have won two of three games away from Jacksonville this season, each of their last two. They knocked off the Colts in London and beat the Bears in their most recent road outing. Note that three of their six games have been decided by a field goal or less, four of six have been decided by four or less. Meanwhile, off a loss last time out, the Titans are 3-4 on the season. Two of their three wins came by two points or less, too. That means that they'd be 1-6 ATS if asked to cover this week's line in every game - and that lone "decisive" win came on the road. They're 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS here at home. In fact, they're now a brual 3-15-2 ATS their last 20 games here. The Titans lost a couple of important starters to injury in their last game. Guard Quinton Spain is expected to be out several weeks. That'll likely hurt the Titans running game while the pass protection will also suffer. Meanwhile, cornerback Perrish Cox is in concussion protocol and is expected to also miss Thursday's game. He already had a couple of INT's and his loss would hurt a secondary which got completely lit up by Bortles (5 TDs) and Robinson (10/153/3 TDs) the last time these teams met. I'm grabbing the points with the Jags.

I'm playing on SF. The 49'ers could badly use a victory and this should be the perfect opponent and situation for them to get one. The Bucs are off a bye but that's not necessarily a good thing, as they're 0-2 SU off a bye the past couple of seasons. An upset win over Carolina, prior to the bye, may have made focusing a little more difficult, during the off-week. Note that the Bucs are 0-4 SU/ATS their last four off a divisional victory. While they've still got Evans, the losses of Martin and Jackson figure to take a toll on the TB offense. The 49ers are desperate and this is a team they can beat. They've dominated them historically and I look for history to repeat itself Sunday afternoon. 

I'm playing on WESTERN KENTUCKY 10* BLOWOUT OF THE WEEK. Old Dominion has been the better team for bettors so far this team. However, Western Kentucky is laying double-digits for good. reason. The Hilltoppers survived a scare at Middle Tennessee, finishing on the right side of a wild 44-43 affair. After having finished on the wrong side of a couple of those earlier (Vanderbilt, LA Tech) that victory was much needed for the Hilltoppers. Now, with some positive momentum behind them, they return home and step down in class to take on an ODU team which they hammered by 25 points (at ODU) last year. Sure, the Monarchs have four victories. In fact, with an undefeated record in conference play, ODU fans are starting to get pretty excited. However, lets keep in mind that all four of those came against weak teams (Hampton, UTSA, Charlotte, UMass) and that three of them came at home. When they stepped up in class to take on the likes of Appalachian State and NC State, the Monarchs lost by scores of 31-7 and 49-22. While the Monarchs are 2-7 ATS the last nine times that they were road underdogs in the 10.5 to 21 point range, during the same period, the Hilltoppers are 5-1 ATS (6-0 SU) as home favorites in the -10.5 to -21 range. I expect them to improve on those stats in "blowout fashion" Saturday evening. 

I'm playing on TCU 10 TV BEST BET.  I believe we're getting excellent value with the visitors in this one. While the Mountaineers were playing at Texas Tech last week, the Horned Frogs had the week off to prepare. With a perfect 6-0 SU/ATS record their last six after a bye, that's significant. True, the Mountaineers looked very good in beating up on the Red Raiders. They're averaging an impressive 534 yards of offense per game. The Frogs aren't giving anything away in that department though. They're averaging 530 yards of offense, while also averaging better than 40 ppg. (WVU averages 32.8) While the Frogs do have a couple of blemishes on their record, both of those losses came by six or fewer points. Speaking of "close games," the last meeting between these teams here was decided by a single point. I won't be surprised if this one also comes down to the wire and am grabbing all the points I can get.

I'm playing on LOUISVILLE. Off their loss to Clemson, it wasn't completely surprising that the Cardinals didn't dominate Duke. (They still won by double-digits (24-14) though.) Now, a week further removed from the Clemson loss, I expect them to "put it all together" with a more "dominating" victory.  With a 63-20 destruction of Florida State under their belt, the Cards are certainly capable of beating up on the Wolfpack. The Wolfpack, 0-2 on the road are off a hard-fought and emotionally draining OT loss at Clemson and are now playing their second consecutive very difficult road game. In case you didn't see last week's result, the Wolfpack actually had a chance to upset Clemson but missed what would have been the game-winning field goal (only 33 yards) at the end of regulation. I expect that loss to catch up to them here, the Cards keeping the pedal to the metal the entire way, en route to a lopsided win.

I'm playing on SOUTH FLORIDA 10* ANNIHILATOR. Both these teams have been kind to bettors. While they failed to cover last time out, the Bulls are 5-2 ATS. The Owls have fared even better at the betting window. Off six straight covers, they're 6-1 ATS on the season. Neither team has faced a very competitive schedule; both have lost when they stepped up in class. Temple lost against Penn State and Memphis. The Bulls' lone loss (Florida State) was a big one, as it cost them a shot at an undefeated season. They've responded with three straight double-digit wins though and I expect them to keep it rolling with a fourth tonight. The Owls average a respectable 32 ppg, 378 ypg. However, the Bulls' offensive numbers are much better. They average 44.1 ppg (45 on the road) on the strength of 506.4 ypg. The Owls only beat them slightly in the points allowed department, 23 to 25.9. Last year, Temple was favored by three points (at USF) yet the Bulls hammered them by 21 points. This year's Owls' team is arguably not as strong while the Bulls are even better than they were. Temple came into that game with a Top 25 ranking and an 8-1 record. After last year's game, Temple coach Matt Rhule commented: "It was just one of those nights where nothing really went well." With the Bulls at 4-1 ATS (5-0 SU) their last five as road favorites, I'm expecting a case of "deja vu" for Rhule and co. tonight.

I'm playing on BOISE STATE 10* THURSDAY “GOM”. The Broncos have a score to settle. You may recall that the Cougars upset them (at BYU) last September. You may recall that one. Boise was up four with less than a minute left. They had BYU on a fourth down but BYU QB Mangum, who hails from Idaho, connected on a hail mary TD pass to Juergens to give the Cougars the lead. Moments later, they'd seal the deal with a 50-yard INT TD. Needless, to say the Broncos haven't forgotten. Even more important than avenging that loss is the chance to stay perfect. The rest of the schedule is manageable. If the Broncos can take care of business tonight, they'll have a legit shot at an undefeated season. The Broncos aren't getting a ton of respect in part because they've been winning without covering. However, I agree with coach Harsin when he noted: "Watch college football. Every single week, it's hard to win every single week. There are no apologies for a 'W.'" Keep in mind that four of six wins have still come by double-digits and that this is still a very capable team, on both sides of the ball. Both teams are on a short week. While its true that BYU has enjoyed one extra day's worth of rest, I'd argue that advantage is negated (and then some) by the fact the the Cougars have played an exhausting schedule, incl. an extra game than the Broncos, which has seen them flying all over the country. They finally get a break afte this game but that won't help them tonight. The Broncos hammered the Cougars 55-30 when the teams met here in 2014, almost exactly two years ago. Including that victory, they're 5-1 ATS (6-0 SU) the last six times that they were home favorites in the -3.5 to -7 range. I expect the revenge-minded Broncos to record another double-digit win tonight.

I'm playing on SEATTLE 10* GAME OF THE MONTH. The Falcons have been rolling. However, I believe the Seahawks will bring them back down to earth in a big way on Sunday afternoon. While the Falcons certainly deserve some credit for last week's win at Denver, we just saw the Chargers dominate the Broncos on Thursday night. So, perhaps beating Denver wasn't as big a feat as it seemed at the time. More importantly, it puts the Falcons in a difficult scheduling spot. Now, they're playing the second of b2b road games and their fourth road game in the past five weeks. They're doing so thousands of miles away from home, at arguably the most hostile environment in the NFL. Meanwhile, the Seahawks have the luxury of playing at home and playing with an extra week's worth of rest. They bye allowed them to "get healthy" while also providing some extra time to prepare for the Falcons. While Atlanta may have caught Denver off guard, expect the well-rested Seahawks to be ready. Prior to their bye, the Hawks were off b2b double-digit wins. I'm expecting another one here.

I'm playing on MIAMI 10*. While I certainly respect the Steelers, I believe that this number is a little high. This is essentially a "must win" game for the Dolphins as they simply cannot afford another loss. They've got some potentially winnable games coming up but they need to find a way to score the upset here. In recent seasons, they've fared well, when off b2b SU losses. Their Week 3 victory, which followed consecutive losses to open the season, brought the Dolphins to 7-2 SU the last nine times that they were off two or more consecutive SU losses. While the stats favor Pittsburgh, I still believe the Dolphins are a little more talented than the stats say they are. With their season (arugably) on the line, look for them to be the "hungrier" team, digging down deep and earning at least a cover. 

I'm playing on TULSA, 10* TV BEST BET. Given the situation and matchup, I believe this line is generously high. The Cougars had hopes (and expectations) of an undefeated season. Their dreams were shattered by Navy last week though. Off that devastating loss, I don't feel they'll be very "up" for this game. They're going to face a Tulsa team which is playing well, too. The Golden Hurricane are 4-1 overall, the only loss coming at Ohio State. While its true that those four victories have come against fairly week competition, Tulsa still did take care of business and will enter this game with plenty of confidence. Tulsa ran for more than 300 yards (344 + 315) each of its last two games and will face a Houston defense which just allowed Navy to rack up more than 300 on the ground. While they didn't fare too well at Ohio St, the Golden Hurricane are still a healthy 5-1 ATS the last six times that they played a road game with an O/U line of 70 or more. During that stretch, Houston is only 1-3 ATS at home, with an O/U line of 70 or more. Last year's game (at Tulsa) was decided by 14 points and the 2014 game here at Houston was decided by 10, Tulsa easily covering as a 19.5 point underdog. Look for this one to also prove closer than most will be expecting. 

I'm playing on MICHIGAN STATE 10* PERS FAV. A 9/17 upset win at Notre Dame brought the Spartans to 2-0 and gave fans plenty of reason for optimism. Since then, the Spartans have stumbled, losing all three games. Losing streaks such as this one have been few and far between in the Dantonio era. The team is under 500 for the first time in almost four years and they heard boos when they left the field in Saturday's loss against BYU. Needless to say that doesn't sit too well with Dantonio or his players. I believe they'll silence the critics on Saturday afternoon. The Wildcats, 1-3 ATS off a bye the past couple of seasons, did manage a win at Iowa in their last game, two weeks ago. However, like the Spartans, they're still below .500 - and that includes upset home losses against Western Michigan and Illinois State. Regardless of who ends up behind center, I expect the Spartans to get back to controlling the clock and dominating on the ground and believe the Wildcat D will provide them with that opportunity. Look for the Spartans to bounce back with a much better effort, improving to 4-1 ATS the last five times that they played a home game with an O/U line in the 42.5 to 45 range.

I'm playing on BALTIMORE. The Skins were able to effectively run the ball against the likes of the Browns and Giants. However, I expect them to have considerably more trouble doing so against the Ravens, as the Baltimore D has been outstanding. In fact, with only 256 yards (210.5 at home) allowed per game, the Ravens' defense ranks #1 in the entire league. On the other hand, the Skins are allowing 413 yards per game, 457 per game on the road. While the Skins are 3-7 ATS their last 10 against the AFC, the Ravens are 5-2-1 ATS their last eight against NFC teams. Look for their superior defense to be the difference this afternoon. 

I'm playing on STANFORD. I played against Stanford in last week's blowout loss at Washington. However, I'm coming right back with what I expect to be an angry Cardinal team this week. This line came down from its opener, providing us with excellent value. I believe it easily could have gone the other way. The well-coached and disciplined Cardinal are 4-1 SU/ATS the last five times that they were off a conference loss. They're already 2-0 SU/ATS here at home, moving to 11-4 ATS (12-3 SU) their last 15 lined home games. The Cougars are undefeated at home but lost their only road game. They lost by 17 when they visited here in 2014. Stanford has been playing some pretty tough defenses in recent weeks. That's made it tough for their banged-up offensive line to open up holes for McCaffrey. The Cougars defense isn't nearly as good though. (Remember that Oregon's Royce Freeman ran for 138 yards and three TDs against them.) So, while still less than 100%, the line should be able to be more effective which in turn should lead to a big game from their superstar back. Look for the Cardinal to bounce back with its best effort, ultimately pulling away for a double-digit win.

I'm playing on OREGON. The Huskies are playing well right now and they came through for me in a big way against Stanford last week. However, off that (admittedly impressive) victory, I believe that they're laying a little too large a number for this week's game at Eugene. While the Ducks are off to a disappointing start and off three straight losses, they've still dominated the Huskies for years. They also haven't lost four straight since the end of the 2006 season. True, the Ducks have some uncertainty at the QB position; Herbert relieved Prukop in last week's loss. Regardless, of which QB is under center, I believe the Ducks can still score though. Royce Freeman, who ran for more than 300 yards in two games against the Huskies, is off a 3-TD performance against the Cougars. Washington's coach Chris Petersen said this of Freeman: "He's as good as there is in the country, without question. He backs it up every week." Counting the Nebraska game as a 'push,' the Ducks are 4-0-1 ATS the last five times that they were getting points. Meanwhile, the Huskies are just 1-4 ATS the last five times that they were listed as road favorites in the -7.5 to -10 range. I'm grabbing all those points. 

I'm playing on ARIZONA. Two weeks ago, I backed the Cardinals when they crushed the Bucs by a 40-7 margin. Last week, with the Cards on the road for the first time, I played against them. The Bills would go on to beat them 33-18. Off that loss and now back at home, I'm coming back with the Cards on Sunday afternoon. While only 1-2, I believe that this is still a strong Arizona team, one which has an advantage on both sides of the ball in this matchup. While they already avenged that loss with a 27-3 victory at St. Louis, the Cards won't have forgotten that the Rams beat them in the first week of October here last season.  Catching the Rams playing the second of b2b road games, I expect another double-digit win.

I'm playing on SF. Some of you may be surprised to see me playing on the 49'ers. After all, I've played against them each of the last two weeks. (The 49'ers lost those games by scores of 46-27 and 37-18.) Those games both came on the road against angry, desperate and highly talented/capable teams, Seattle and Carolina. As you know, the Seahawks and Panthers have represented the NFC in the SB for three years in a row. This week, however, the 49ers are back home and they're hosting a Dallas team which hasn't been to the Super Bowl in decades. I believe they're catching the Cowboys, who are without Romo and likely without Dez Bryant (gametime decision but expected to miss) at the right time. The Cowboys played their first two games against divisional opponents and their next one was a nationally televised Sunday night game. Off those three 'big games' and now flying out to the West Coast, I feel that the Cowboys may be ripe for a letdown. The 49'ers, on the other hand, should be extremely motivated to bounce back from b2b blowout losses. Keep in mind that they won their only game here by a score of 28-0. They're 4-0 ATS their last four as home underdogs of three or fewer points and I expect them to improve on those stats Sunday afternoon. 

I'm playing on LSU. Since joining the SEC in 2012, Missouri has played every team except LSU. I believe they're catching the (LSU) Tigers at the wrong time. As you are likely aware, the big news for LSU is that Les Miles is out, along with offensive coordinator Cam Cameron. While Miles certainly had success at times, I believe that this was the right move and I look for it to pay immediate dividends. Miles nearly got fired late last season. That can be difficult on the players (and coach) and they should now be able to move forward. Defensive line coach Ed Orgeron takes over on an interim basis. He's had success in this role before, as he went 6-2 in the interim role when USC fired Lane Kiffin a few years back. I expect the change and a change in offensive philosophy (Orgeron had this to say: "...we're going to spread the ball around a little bit, do some different things, change the style of play. There's a lot of things on offense we've done well running the football. We want to have a different passing game. We want to be more creative, find ways for the quarterback to get the ball down the field throwing it.") to prove to be just what the doctor ordered for a very talented but struggling offense. Going back several years, Orgeron didn't fare too well as the head coach of Ole Miss, from 2005-07. Back then, Missouri beat him twice. A decade later, now armed with the superior team on both sides of the ball, Orgeron gets his revenge, the Tigers kicking off the post-Miles era in blowout fashion.

I'm playing on BOWLING GREEN. Its true that the Falcons haven't exactly been impressive. They're 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS on the season and they got utterly destroyed last week. Those results have helped to provide us with a much lower line than we normally would have gotten for this matchup; I believe the Falcons are offering excellent value. Lets keep in mind that Bowling Green has had a brutal schedule. The Falcons have played road games at Ohio State and Memphis and one of their two home games came against an explosive Middle Tennessee State team. They were getting more than 50 combined points at the betting window for those three games, so going 0-3 there was not surprising. They did win their lone "winnable" game - albeit barely. Now, however, they get a "fresh start" with the beginning of conference play. Who better than to restore the Falcons' confidence than Eastern Michigan, a team it has absolutely dominated (9-1 SU L10) over the years. Granted, the Eagles are on the upswing and appear to be a little stronger than they've been in recent years though. Thats still not saying much though and they're 3-1 non-conference record needs to be taken with a grain of salt. They deserve a little credit for beating Wyoming. However, that game came at home. The other two victories came against Miss. Valley State and Charlotte. Needless to say, Bowling Green has played much tougher competition. I expect that experience against bigger stronger athletes to pay dividends here. Stepping down in class, look for the Falcons, who are the defending MAC champs, to "get healthy," the Eagles falling to 0-4 ATS their last four as road underdogs of three or fewer points. 

I'm playing on UCONN. The Cougars are obviously a very good team, strong on both sides of the ball. They entered the season with a national ranking, beat Oklahoma in Week 1 and have proceeded to destroy every team since. Impressive indeed. Those results have helped to create a very high line on Thursday night though and I believe that it will prove to be too high. Keep in mind that Houston was also strong last season and that those 2015 Cougars lost to UConn by three points (20-17) as -8 point favorites. Speaking of "close games," the Huskies have seen all four of their games decided by seven or fewer points, three of them by four or less. The UConn defense has been mostly solid, allowing 22.5 ppg. Counting the Lamar game as a 'push,' the Cougars are actually only 6-9-1 ATS at home the past 2+ seasons. They've been very stingy against the run but the Huskies aren't going to deviate from what they do. Look for the visitors to have some success on the ground, helping them to limit the amount of time that the Houston offense is on the field. While we have to go back a number of years, the Huskies are 8-4 ATS their last 12 as road underdogs of greater than 21 points. I expect them to improve on those stats Thursday. 

I'm playing on NEW ORLEANS. This game will be played almost 10 years to the day that the Saints played "Domecoming," their first game back home after missing nearly a year due to Hurricane Katrina. Their opponent that Monday night? These very same Atlanta Falcons. (The Saints cruised to a 23-3 victory.) While the Falcons have gone through various coaches and QB's - Jim Mora (JR) was Atlanta's coach that night, Michael Vick their QB - both Sean Payton and Drew Brees, who went 20 of 28 that night, remain for the Saints. The significance of this game won't be lost on either of them, just as it wasn't that night. Looking at some more recent history and we find that the Saints, who have started the season at 0-2, are 6-2 ATS the past couple of seasons, when off b2b SU losses. Needless to say, the Saints know they can't afford to fall to 0-3. Not when they're playing in the same division as Newton and the Panthers, who they'll face in Week 5, after returning home from a trip to the West Coast in Week 4. They beat the Falcons by 10 points here last season; I expect them to "rise to the occasion" with a "statement win" on Monday night. 

I'm playing on BUFFALO. I respect the Cardinals; as many of you know, I've backed them in each of their first two games. After disappointing in their opener, they bounced back with a blowout win over Tampa last week. They're on the road for the first time here though and I expect them to have their hands full. Note that the Cards are only 3-6 ATS, after their Week 1 setback, their last nine against teams from the AFC. (During the same stretch, they've dominated NFC teams.) The Bills had lofty expectations this season, the Brady suspension providing particular optimism. However, they find themselves at 0-2 entering the week, the Pats 2-0, heading into their Thursday game vs. Houston. Regardless of what happens on Thursday, the Bills figure to be in "desperation mode." They know that they can ill afford to head into Foxboro, the first of b2b road games, with an 0-3 record. That makes taking care of business essential this week. They'll be working with some extra rest, the result of having played a Thursday game last week, and that figures to help in their preparation. The Bills are 5-2-1 ATS the last eight times that they were underdogs in the 3.5 to 9.5 range. During that stretch, they're also a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS when coming off b2b SU losses. Look for them to bounce back with AT LEAST a cover once again here. 

I'm playing on CINCINNATI. Thus far, the Broncos have fared just fine without Peyton Manning. I expect the defending champs, who are playing their first on the road, to finally taste defeat on Sunday afternoon though. This is the Bengals' home opener and there's going to be some extra emotion and energy in the stadium. While they lost last week, Marvin Lewis' Bengals remain an impressive 7-1 SU and 6-1-1 ATS their last eight September games. They're also 3-1 SU/ATS their last four off a division loss. While the Broncos came back to beat them last December - which sent the Bengals to the Wildcard Rd. vs the Steelers - the Bengals won big (38-27) the last meeting here at Cincinnati, a big Monday night win over Manning. I expect another big win and cover for the Bengals here.

I'm playing on ARIZONA. Washington has a good team this year and looked impressive through its first three games. However, lets keep in mind that all three of those games were at home and that all three were against teams which were weaker than Arizona; the Huskies were laying more than 100 combined points in the three games combined. Now, however, the Huskies play their first conference game and they do so late in the evening at a hostile environment. They'll be facing an improved Arizona team which has been getting better each week and which will be determined to get some payback after getting destroyed by the Huskies last year. 

Washington coach Chris Pederson noted: "...everybody plays a little bit harder and all those type of things. And then you factor in that we're going away, night game, first league game -- I know what the energy will be like in that stadium. That will feel completely different to us."

There's also a huge home game vs. Standford on the deck, followed by a road date at Oregon. So, it might be easy to look past a Wildcat team which they hammered last season. 

The line climbed higher due in part to injuries to Arizona's QB Solomon and RB Wilson. However, replacements Dawkins and Taylor may in fact both be better. Dawkins can run a lot better than Solomon and is full of confidence after a big game vs. Hawaii. Rich Rodriguez noted: "The thing he did well against Hawaii was his decision-making was good. His eyes were in the right spot. He was decisive in all of his actions, and I think that is why he gained some confidence as the game went on."

Meanwhile, Taylor came in and racked up 168 yards on 18 carries. Rodriguez said this of Taylor: "He has probably learned as quickly as any true freshman I have ever had, and I have had some really good ones throughout the years."

The Wildcats, who beat the Huskies by a point when these teams met here in 2014, will be thinking upset. After all, they're 7-5 their last 12 home games against top-10 teams (dating back to 2005) and they've beaten a top-10 team every year that Rodriguez has been here. Look for them to give the Huskies a much tougher test than expected. 

I'm playing on TENNESSEE. The Gators beat the Vols by a point (28-27) last year. They also beat them by a single point (10-9) the previous year. In fact, Tennessee hasn't beaten Florida since 2004. The Vols should get some payback on Saturday afternoon though - and by a lot more than a point. Both teams are dealing with some injury issues. Cornerback Cam Sutton and MLB Darrin Kirkland Jr are among the injured for the Vols. Both of those losses are admittedly significant. The Gators' injuries are arguably even bigger though, starting with QB Del Rio. It doesn't help matter that they're also banged up along the line at the offensive guard spots. While they hope to have WR Gallaway available, he may be at less than 100%. The time is right. Look for Butch Jones' veteran team to do something no Tennessee team has done in more than a decade, covering the number along the way.  

I'm playing on HOUSTON on Thursday night. Normally, for a game on a short week, I often initially take a look at the home team. This isn't a "normal" situation though. The Patriots survived admirably without future Hall-Of-Fame QB Tom Brady. However, now it appears that they're also going to be without his replacement, Garroppolo. As you probably saw or heard, Garroppolo went down in the win over Miami. That looks like its going to leave a rookie QB, Jacoby Brissett, making his first start, while playing on a short week. Brissett was six of nine in relief but now he's up against J.J. Watt and a Houston defense which has surrendered a mere 13 points and 274.5 total yards per game, thus far. (That's a whole lot better than the 22.5 ppg and 401.5 ypg which New England has allowed!) The Texans are 13-2 SU and 12-3 ATS the last 15 times that they were favored, including 2-0 SU/ATS as a road favorites of three or less. They're itching for some payback, after the Pats embarrassed them (27-6) at Houston last year. I expect them to get it. 

I'm playing on CAROLINA. The 49ers are in the wrong place at the wrong time. Angry off their opening week loss, the Panthers are playing with extra rest, due to having played on Thursday night. On the other hand, SF is off a late MNF game on the West Coast and is now playing an early Sunday game in the Eastern Time Zone. Note that the west-coast based 49ers are a money-burning 14-26 ATS over the years, the past 40 times that they were off a MNF game, 0-2 SU/ATS their last two. While the 49ers were 6-10 ATS (5-11 SU) on the road the past two seasons, Carolina was 13-6 ATS and 15-4 SU here at home. During that time, the Panthers are also 5-1 ATS against teams from the NFC South. While the 49ers looked impressive against the Rams, I'm not convinced that all their defensive issues are solved yet. Look for the Panthers to expose those issues, en route to a lopsided win and cover. 

I'm playing on LSU. I successfully played against the Tigers in their opening week loss at Lambeau Field. Off that loss, in hindsight, it wasn't all that shocking that they failed to cover the big number against Jacksonville State last week. The Tigers have now had time to "recover" though and I expect them to be at their best on Saturday evening. Its true that the Bulldogs have played LSU tough in recent seasons. However, I believe that the talent gap between the teams is wider this season. Remember, that LSU entered the season with legit aspirations at winning the national championship. This week, the Tigers will be looking to silence the critics and for a big break-out game from the offense. Superior on both sides of the ball, I expect Miles' team to keep the pedal to the metal the entire way en route to a convincing win and cover. *GOM

I'm playing on CINCINNATI. Recent meetings between these schools have been close. The Cougars won by three at Houston last season. Laying -7, the Bearcats won by a touchdown here at Cincinnati the previous year. While that game landed right on the number, the Bearcats are 5-0 SU and 4-0-1 ATS the last five times that they were a host in the series. They'll come in confident here and I expect them to give their ranked guests all they can handle. The Cougars showed that they're worthy of their ranking by defeating Oklahoma. However, as they know all too well, this is a tough place to play. The Bearcats are 11-2 SU here the past 2+ seasons. The Bearcats have an experienced defense and an offense which just put up 38 points and more than 500 yards at Purdue. Benefitting from a big offensive line the balanced attack had 250 or more yards on both the ground and through the air. Houston coach Tom Hernan said this of the Bearcats: "As good as they were last year, they've improved on both sides of the ball. Their defensive line and their defensive tackles seem to be in a lot better shape. They're moving around better. Their two safeties are really good players that make a ton of tackles for them. They seem to be a little more sound in what they're doing. They're in the right places at the right time on defense. On offense, the quarterback is playing at an extremely high level. He's a really good player behind a massive offensive line. They're running the ball a little bit better than they have in years past. It will be a challenge." I look for Hernan's team to indeed be challenged and won't be surprised if the Bearcats rise to the occasion and score the outright upset. 

I'm playing on JACKSONVILLE. Getting a handful of points, I believe the Jaguars are offering excellent value. The Jags figure to be significantly improved this season. They've got a young and talented offense (Bortles threw 35 TDs and 4400+ yards LY) with another year under its belt and a revamped defense that they spent big money on during the offseason. Rodgers is (obviously) a great QB and he'll surely enjoy having Nelson back. That said, last season was the worst of Rodgers career. Also, Nelson didn't play in the preseason after missing all of last year. Additionally, they just released Josh Sitton, a fixture on the offensive line and 2-year All Pro. The Jags outscored teams by an average of 23.4 to 22.0 here last season, while the Packers outscored teams by a 23.7 to 23.0 margin in games away from Lambeau. There's going to be a lot of excitement in the stadium and I look for the Jags to rise to the occasion, earning AT LEAST a cover. 

I'm playing on KC. The Chiefs are 4-0 against the Chargers the past two seasons. The past three of those victories all came by a minimum of seven points and by an average of greater than 16. I look for "more of the same" this afternoon. The Chargers, 4-12 last season, still don't know if SD will be there permanent home. That's got to be an unsettling feeling. The Chiefs, who have covered 12 of 20 (60%) as favorites the past couple of seasons, enter today's action on a 10-game "regular season" winning streak. Even without Charles, they still have a potent running attack. I expect them to wear down their guests, en route to another win and cover. 

I'm playing on OREGON. I see this one turning into a blowout. The hire of Bronco Mendenhall excited Virginia fans. Many assumed the Cavs, who were just 4-8 last year, would qualify in Mendenhall's first year. However, those expectations took a major hit last week. Despite being favored by double-digits, Virginia lost by 17 points against Richmond. It wasn't a fluke either, as the Spiders outgained them by a commanding 524-302 margin. If Richmond, who was previously 2-30 against the Cavs and who hadn't beaten them since the 1940s, put up 500+ yards against the Cavs, you can imagine what Oregon is going to do. The Ducks topped both the 50-point mark and the 500-yard mark in their opener. More of the same Saturday night. 

I'm playing on TEXAS TECH. The Red Raiders return Patrick Mahomes and all he did was throw for 4563 yards last season. While the opponent (Stephen Austen) was a lightweight, the Raiders scored 69 points in their opener, piling up more than 600 yards of offense in the air alone. Obviously, ASU represents a major step up in class. Still, the Tech offense figures to come in full of confidence and lets not forget that the Sun Devils were the nation's worst team against the pass (337.8 ypg) last season. We may not be able to count on much improvement this season either, as lowly Northern Arizona threw for 369 yards against the Sun Devils last week, despite being a 4-TD underdog. While the ASU passing attack managed a mere 180 yards, Lumberjack receiver Elijah Marks had 178 receiving yards himself. While the Sun Devils eventually pulled away, they were being outgained by what was supposed to be a very weak opponent by a 212-169 margin at halftime. While we have to go back a number of years, the Raiders are 11-4 ATS their last 15 as road underdogs. Ten of those 11 covers resulted in outright wins. While I'll gladly grab the points, with Mahomes carving up the suspect ASU secondary, I'm expecting another outright win here. 

I'm playing on TEXAS. I like the Longhorns' chances of scoring the upset tonight. Always talented, this year's Longhorns are out to show that Texas is still a better team/school than the one which took the field in 2014 and 2015. Needless to say, a nationally televised Sunday Night "stand-alone" game against a ranked and high profile Irish team provides the perfect opportunity. Of course, the Longhorns also feel that they've got a "score to settle" as the Irish hammered them (at ND) on this very weekend, last September. With tonight's rematch being played in Austin, on a warm night with 10's of thousands of screaming fans wearning orange, I expect an entirely different result. The Irish are indeed a good team, worthy of their preseason ranking. They've lost a little from last year though while the Longhorns - and their new look offense - should be considerably stronger. Look for Longhorns to come to play tonight, giving the Irish all they can handle the entire way. 

I'm playing on GEORGIA. This is the beginning of a "new era" for the Bulldogs and I expect them to usher it in with a big win. The Tar Heels, who scored over 40 ppg last season, are no slouches. They've got some questions along the defensive line though and last year's team struggled against the run. That's a problem when facing Nick Chubb, who is not expected to be limited and who has reportedly made a full recovery. While the Tar Heels are likely going to put up some points, I look for the Bulldogs to ultimately wear them down, en route to a win and cover. 

Condition: Georgia at -6 or better. No play if line climbs above -6. 

I'm playing on WISCONSIN. This game has an O/U line in the 40s. With points likely to be at a bit of a premium, I believe that asking LSU to cover such a large number on the road (while technically a neutral field, the game is being played at Lambeau Field) is asking a lot. With a Heisman candidate at running back, plenty of experience and NFL calibre talent throughout the roster, the Tigers are indeed a very good team. I believe that the Badgers are going to be a lot more competitive than many will be expecting. While the Tigers may have plucked away the Badgers' defensive coordinator (Aranda) the Badgers are still the team which ranked #1 in scoring defense last season, second in total defense. Needless to say, the Badgers D will be extremely motivated for this big TV game, a chance to show their old defensive coach that they are capable of taking on mighty LSU. While Wisconsin's new QB (Houston) may lack game experience, he's a 5th year senior with decent mobility and a good arm. He came off the bench in a game (Illinois) last year and was 22 of 32 with two TDs. Look for the Badgers to give their highly ranked guests all they can handle. 

Conditon: Badgers at +10 or better. No play if line dips below +10.

I'm playing on DENVER. Carolina has certainly had an impressive season. The Panthers are up against an outstanding defense here though, one which is peaking at the right time. They're also up against a future Hall-Of-Fame QB, one of the all-time greats, one who will be playing with a chip on his shoulder.

Manning has had a storybook career. However, much of his legacy is likely going to ride on this game. A victory gives him another SB ring and a winning all-time postseason record. A loss, however, gives him a losing playoff record and he becomes a 3-time loser. Needless to say, Manning hasn't forgotten the debacle against Seattle two seasons ago. As someone who appreciates the history of the game, and his place in it, this game is as big as they come for Peyton.
 
I really liked what I saw out of Manning against the Pats. He did what he needed to do, even running for a key first down when needed. I also liked the way the talented receiving corps bounced back after dropping a few in the poor conditions against Pittsburgh the previous week.
 
Like him or not, Newton has looked pretty darn impressive all year. The same can be said for Brady though and the Broncos defense made him look like an ordinary QB in the conference championships. Less than ordinary, in fact. Indeed, Brady's 18.1 QB rating in the first half was the lowest by any NFL playoff QB in the past five years. While he still threw for more than 300 yards, Brady connected on less than half of his passes and had more INT's than TD passes. (That was the only time he's ever been held to less than 50% completions in a playoff game.) The Broncos hit him at least 20 times. The point that I'm trying to make is that if the Broncos can do that to Brady than I believe that they can do the same to Newton. This defense is that good.
 
The Panthers are banged-up, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. The last time that they played away from Carolina, they lost. They've become accustomed to having things easy, blowing teams out and posing for the camera. They're going to be in for a dogfight here though against a battle-tested Broncos team which has been involved in close games all season. I look for that close game experience to serve them well here.
 
As a close game won't surprise, I'm happy to grab the points. That said, I'm expecting an outright win from Manning and co. 10* Main Event

I'm playing on ARIZONA. With 30 victories between them, these teams are obviously both extremely capable. That said, I really like how this one sets up for the visitors.

I (successfully) played against the Cards last week. Among my reasons for doing so was that I felt that they were laying a very big number. I really respect Rodgers and McCarthy and liked the momentum that the GB offense had gained from the win over Washington. Also, I didn't like that Arizona had lost its last game by a score of 36-6. Additionally, I knew Palmer hadn't won a playoff game - and until he'd overcome that hurdle, I didn't feel that his team deserved to be laying 7 or 7.5 points against the battle-tested Pack. Things set up much differently this week though.

For starters, the Cards no longer have to worry about laying any points. More importantly, instead of coming off a blowout loss, the Cards are now coming off a momentum-buidling win. They survived a miracle comeback by GB and still came out ahead. Their veteran star receiver was the hero and Palmer got the monkey off his back with a playoff win. They also get an extra day's worth of rest to compensate for the travel.

Carolina was certainly impressive in the first half against Seattle. However, the Panthers then had to hang on for dear life, nearly squandering a massive lead, while getting banged-up in the process. Olsen and Stewart, Newton's top two offensive weapons, were among the walking wounded. (Both are expected to play but its possible that they may be slightly less than 100%.)

While there's no denying that the Panthers have a talented defense, it should be noted that they've given up 20 or more points in four of their last six game and that two of those teams torched them for 35 or more. Now, they'll be taking on the #1 ranked offense in football, one which averaged 32.7 points and 426.2 points while going 7-1 on the road. (They outscored teams by an average of two TD's on the road this season, 32.7 to 18.7.) The Panthers won last year but the Cards didn't have Palmer, who happened to throw for 4671 yards (35 TDs) this season. Payback time. 10* Playoff GOY

*10 ROAST on Seattle Seahawks.

The Seahawks may have been lucky to sneak into the Divisional Round in a win over Minnesota, but this a quality team and a playoff savvy squad that will make the most of this opportunity. Seattle has plenty of motivation against the Panthers, who claimed the top spot in the NFC with a one-loss season. That record included a win in CenturyLink Field in Week 6. However, that was a long time ago and Seattle is a much different team. In the first meeting with the Panthers, Seattle was able to sack Cam Newton three times and limit him to 20-of-36 passing with two interceptions. The Seahawks pass rush has picked up the pace in recent games and will bring even more heat against Newton, who has struggled to complete passes under pressure. As Cam goes, so do the Panthers. If he’s struggling to create offense, Carolina is stuck looking for points elsewhere. That could be tough against the best scoring defense in the NFL for four years running.

I’m playing on Seattle as a 10* Sunday. 

*10 DIVISIONAL RND. GAME OF THE WEEK on Green Bay Packers.

The Packers looked like the team football fans have been waiting on in recent weeks in a one-sided win over Washington in the Wildcard Round. Green Bay manhandled a good Redskins defense and did a good job protecting Aaron Rodgers, allowing only one sack. This team is getting healthier on the offensive line and won’t have a repeat of Week 16’s beating at the hands of the Cardinals. Green Bay is getting good work from runners Eddie Lacy and James Starks, which will keep the Cardinals defense guessing. Arizona was rolled by Seattle in the season finale in which the Seahawks rumbled for 145 yards on the ground and dominated time of possession, tallying 36:37 of game time. The Packers, who rushed for 141 yards against the Redskins, can set a similar pace in the Divisional Round.

I’m playing on Green Bay as a 10* Saturday. 

I am playing on CLEMSON. Sharp action offshore has been hammering Clemson leading up to this game - even though the public is largely on Bama - and I have to agree with the wiseguy money here.

Clemson is once again being largely underestimated as the No. 1 ranked team in the nation, just like the Tigers were in the national semifinals when they clobbered Oklahoma 37-17 as 3.5-point underdogs. I feel this is simply way too many points to be giving such a talented and explosive team like Clemson, which is the 11th-ranked offense in the nation in yards per game.

I feel the Tigers will be able to adjust no matter what looks Bama throws at them on defense with a balanced attack that averages close to 300 yards passing and over 200 yards rushing per game. It's no wonder Clemson won the yardage battle in every game it played this season - especially when you consider the team owns the 6th-ranked defense in the land in yards against.

Throw any team you like up against Clemson, this is just way too many points to be giving them and this number represents a lack of respect from the general public. And if you like trends - consider that Clemson rides a streak of four straight covers in bowl games into this game and the Tigers are also 6-0  ATS in their last six neutral site games. 10* 

I am playing on the GREEN BAY PACKERS. This spread is rightly a close one but I believe the Packers hold the edge here with the better quarterback and better defense statistically.

The Redskins are an overrated squad in my opinion after playing in a horrendous division all season with a weak schedule through which they could only muster a 9-7 record. The Skins didn't beat one team all season with a winning record and I just feel they are unjustly getting too much action here as a result.

While it's true Green Bay has had its struggles on offense, Washington's secondary is nothing to brag about with a ranking of 25th in the league against the pass. I think we'll see Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay passing attack have a big performance on Sunday and I think we'll see Green Bay's defense look more like the one that held Minnesota to 20 points and just 91 yards passing last week, rather than the one that allowed 38 points to Arizona the week before.

The Redskins have lost the yardage battle in four of their last five games and in seven of their last 10 and I feel that's a great indicator a team playing above its head. I expect Green Bay to get the win and cover on Sunday. 10* Game of the Week 

I'm playing on GREEN BAY.

Off a 38-8 loss at Arizona, many are asking what happened to the once mighty Packers? I'm not ready to write them off because of one bad game though. After all, it was their second straight road game and they were up against a tough Arizona team. Now, they're back home where they've won 18 of 24 games the past few seasons. Now, they're facing a familiar foe that they hammered last month at Minnesota, one which they destroyed in last year's meeting here. While the Vikings have admittedly improved, I look for another win and cover for the Pack.

10* Personal Favorite

I'm playing on SEATTLE.

The Cardinals are rolling and come in off an impressive blowout of Green Bay. The Seahawks are off a loss vs. the lowly Rams. That will have most backing the home team. The Hawks haven't forgotten that the Cards beat them up in Seattle though. They also know that they could use some momentum going into the playoffs AND that they could meet Arizona in the playoffs. While I respect the Cards, I won't be surprised to see the Hawks step up and score the upset.

10* NFC West G.O.M.

I'm playing on BUFFALO.

Many will likely back the Jets here because they "need" the game more. I don't expect the Bills to lack motivation though. Not with the chance to play spoiler against a hated rival. Running back Dixon called it: "the Bills' Superbowl" and went on to say: "We got something to play for now," he said. "We been having something to play for -- that's our respect and our pride. We always want that. But to send them home packing -- that would be great." The Bills haven't lost here since way back in mid-October. They beat the Jets at NY and I expect them to give them all they can handle again here.

10* AFC GOW

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA.

In a game where motivation might well determine who covers the spread, I believe that the Chip Kelly release may well give the Eagles the edge. While Kelly had some supporters, there were also a number of players who weren't on board with his approach and/or personality. I believe they'll come together in an effort to show they're better off without him and that they really were better than the 6-9 record Kelly left them with. The Eagles are 2-0 ATS off a division loss, defeating the Jets and Saints by a combined 53-34 margin. An outright victory won't surprise.

10* best bet. 

I'm playing on TCU in the Alamo Bowl.

I released this selection prior to the news about Boykin, the Frogs' starting QB who is suspended. Unfortunately, I'm locked in with the Frogs at a pick 'em price, one of the drawbacks of releasing plays early. Needless to say, I would have preferred the adjusted (post-suspension) line, which I feel is offering excellent value. I'm not writing off the Frogs chances of winning outright though. We just saw Baylor overcome some key losses. Many wrote off the Bears but they rallied together and overcame the adversity. Likewise with Clemson. The Tigers seemingly weren't affected by suspensions, as they hammered Oklahoma. Speaking of Oklahoma, the Frogs very nearly defeated the Sooners (30-29 loss) in a game they played without Boykin. Admittedly, the Boykin loss is indeed a big deal. However, as noted, the Frogs have shown that they can compete against top tier opponents without him. They'll be up against a porous Oregon defense which allows 36.7 ppg and more than 480 ypg. That defense may have a slight emotional letdown now that they know they won't be facing TCU's #1 QB. Gary Patterson has been outstanding when given extra time to prepare. Don't be surprised when the Frogs find a way to win.

10* Main Event

I’m playing on OKLAHOMA STATE in the Sugar Bowl.

The Rebels come in as the hotter team. They won their final two games while the Cowboys lost their last two. Those results have helped to provide us with some additional line value, as the Cowboys are considerable underdogs. I like their chances partly due to an ability to play well away from home. Indeed, this team was a perfect 5-0 on the road this season, winning at Texas, West Virginia and Texas Tech. While OK. State outscored teams by more than eight points per game, when on the road, Ole Miss was outscored by an average score of 31.6 to 28.4, when playing away from home. The Rebels, who were destroyed by a Big 12 team in last year’s bowl, will play without defensive star Nkemdiche. He’s a dynamic player and I expect his absence to prove significant. The Cowboys have shown an ability to come back (erase deficits) and also to win close games. I’m grabbing the points.

10* GOW

I'm playing on IOWA in the Rose Bowl.

The Hawkeyes don't get much respect from the betting public and come in as considerable underdogs. I believe they're better than many realize though. Keep in mind that this is a team which lost only once all season - and that loss was by a field goal. Remember, this is a team which has road wins at venues like Nebraska, Northwestern and Wisconsin. (Iowa was the only team to win at NW and one of only two teams to win at Wisconsin.) While wins at NW and Wisconsin might not sound like much, Stanford can respect how difficult winning at NW actually was this season. The Cardinal lost 16-6 when they played there. That was one of five games that Stanford played which were decided by 10 or fewer points; three of Stanford's final six games were decided by exactly two points. Iowa saw four of its final five decided by eight or less and was involved in seven games which were decided by 10 or less. Another close one won't surprise.

10*

I'm playing on FLORIDA in the Citrus Bowl.

This has been a comeback year of sorts for both programs. Each has fallen from its former glory in recent years. Each is now back playing a New Year's Day Bowl game. That said, motivation doesn't figure to be a problem for either side. Many seem to feel Michigan has a superior offense, the reason the Wolverines are favored. I'm not so sure that's true though. Yes, the Gators offense really struggled down the stretch. This is still a team which scored 27 or more points six times, four times vs. SEC opponents. They've had plenty of time to work on fixing the offense. On the other side of the ball, the Gators are as good as it gets; they held six opponents to 14 or fewer points. I believe that they're better than the Michigan defense, which lost a pair of key defensive linemen (Ojemudia and Glasgow) in late November, currently is. With an O/U line currently below the 40-mark, points are expected to be at a premium. I'm grabbing all I can get with the hungry and dangerous underdog.

10* WINNER

I'm playing on OHIO STATE in the Fiesta Bowl.

The Irish bring a much better ATS record to the table. However, I believe the Buckeyes are the superior team. Off a 42-13 thrashing of Michigan, the Buckeyes are full of confidence. If you've followed my plays over the years, you'll know that I've successfully played against the Irish several times in January Bowl games this millennium. (They've played five January bowl games since 2001 and each has resulted in a double-digit loss.) Speaking of history, 13 of the last 16 Fiesta Bowls (incl. 5 of the L6) have been decided by at least seven points. I expect history to repeat itself, the Irish and their fans enduring another double-digit setback.

10* Personal Fav

I'm playing on MICHIGAN STATE in the Cotton Bowl Classic.

The perception is that the Spartans are lucky to be here. That may be partly true - as the blocked punt play against Michigan was certainly pretty fortunate. The fact is that they were right there with Ohio State before that play though. This is a team that hasn't been blown out by anyone; the Spartans' lone loss came by a single point. As per usual, Alabama represents a formidable challenge. The Tide aren't unbeatable though, as evidenced by their loss vs. Ole Miss. Tennessee was another team which played the Tide close, losing by just five. The Spartans have won 18 of their last 20 against teams with a winning record and they're 6-1-1 ATS their last eight when getting points. I like their ability to "scratch and claw" their way to victory and I look for them to give the Tide all they can handle.

10* Main Event

I'm playing on CLEMSON in the Orange Bowl.

There will be a lot of talk about the three Clemson players who are suspended for this game and that will be one of the reasons many will favor Oklahoma. Only one player (Cain) was relevant though, as the other two didn't play. And, although Cain was the second leading receiver, he's being replaced by a senior (Peake) who had almost identical numbers as Cain. While some might see the suspensions as a distraction, I believe that they'll help bring the team even closer together. The Tigers are 29-14-1 ATS their last 44 as underdogs in the 3.5 to 10 range. Behind a big game from star Deshaun Watson, I expect at least another cover on New Year's Eve.

*10 GAME OF THE MONTH

I'm playing on USC in the Holiday Bowl.

The Trojans limp into tonight's bowl game, having lost two of their final three and with a 1-4 ATS mark their past five. This is a talented team, however, one which has been battle-tested against the best of the west. The Trojans have also been excellent when coming off a loss. A 40-21 victory over rival UCLA on 11/28 brought them to 8-1 SU/ATS the last nine times they were coming off a loss. Unlike USC, the Badgers have played an extremely soft schedule. They did face Alabama. However, that was way back in the first week of September and they lost by 18, as 12-point dogs. Since then, the best team they faced was Iowa. Playing at home, the Badgers only managed six points in that one, a 10-6 loss. They avoided Ohio State, Michigan and Michigan State. The next best team they faced, arguably, was Northwestern. The Badgers lost that one too. I look for USC to be too much for them.

10* Main Event

I'm playing on LSU in the Texas Bowl.

Regardless of whether this is Les Miles final game with LSU, I expect the Tigers to close their season with a one-sided victory. The Red Raiders have serious trouble stopping the run, ranking an awful 126th in the country. Meanwhile, the Tigers bring a back to the table (Fournette) who averaged more rushing yards per game than any other player in the country. I expect that to spell trouble for the underdog. Look for Fournette to go off as the motivated Tigers win in decisive fashion.

10* Main Event

I'm playing on BAYLOR in the Russell Athletic Bowl.

These teams can both light up the scoreboard. UNC comes in averaging an impressive 40.9 ppg. Baylor boasts an even better 48 ppg. The difference is much greater when you look at their points away from home though. When playing on the road, the Tar Heels average 31.5 ppg. The Bears, on the other hand, average 47 ppg (600.7 ypg!) on the road, showing an ability to put up a big number, regardless of venue. Of course, Baylor's offense has taken a hit due to injuries at key positions. That has most expecting a win for the Heels. I believe the Briles and the Bears have had time to adapt and look for them to surprise.

10* best bet

I'm playing on CALIFORNIA in the Armed Forces Bowl.

I won with the Falcons in their final regular season game, a cover at San Diego State, a game they lost by three points. So, I'm aware that they've fared well in the underdog role. I feel that Air Force will have trouble keeping up with a superior opponent on Tuesday afternoon though. The same San Diego State team that defeated the Falcons was destroyed (35-7) by Cal, the only Mountain West team that the Bears faced. The Bears are battle-tested, having faced the best of the west. They're stepping down in class and I'm expecting a double-digit win.

10* Annihilator

I'm playing on DENVER.

While they've had an extra day to work with, this is still a tough scheduling spot for the Bengals. Still without their starting QB, they play the second of B2B road games, having played at SF last Sunday. Making matters worse, they'll be playing in the bitter cold and taking on arguably the best defense in the league. True, they've been great on the road all season. However, this is the first time that they played consecutive road games in consecutive weeks. (Only previous time they played b2b road games was separated by a bye.) Expect it to catch up with them here. Broncos roll.

10* MNF GOY

I am playing on MINNESOTA (vs Central Michigan) as my *10 CFB Blowout *Game of the Week* on Monday, December 28th @ 5 PM ET

Minnesota, like Nebraska, is a 5-7 bowl team. The Golden Gophers, like the Cornhuskers, are likely to get a big bowl win. The key here is strength of schedule. Minnesota played a very tough schedule whereas Central Michigan, played a much weaker schedule and yet only ended up with a slightly better record (7-5) in comparison with the Golden Gophers. The Chippewas struggle to run the ball on offense and that will allow the Minnesota defense to focus on shutting down QB Cooper Rush and the passing attack of the Chips. Central Michigan also had a new head coach coming into this year and he came over from the NFL and this is his first time in the college ranks again since the late nineties. Compare that to the continuity of a Minnesota coaching staff (minus coach Kill of course) that has been to five bowl games together. This is a big edge for the Golden Gophers who now have named coach Clayes as the full time coach. Minnesota already beat two MAC teams in the regular season and they make it three straight here by dominating an outclassed Central Michigan team. The Chippewas are on a 3-5 ATS run when they enter a game on a winning streak of two games or more. Minnesota's regular season ended with a loss to Wisconsin and the Golden Gophers are 5-0 ATS this season when off of a loss to a conference rival. Look for that ATS record to improve to 6-0 with a big win in the Quick Lane Bowl Monday.

I am playing on PITTSBURGH (vs Navy) as my *10 MILITARY BOWL *ROUT* on Monday, December 28th @ 2:30 PM ET

Revenge game for Pittsburgh as these teams met in 2013 and Navy came away with a 3-point victory. The Panthers had a tough late season schedule and dropped 3 of their last 5 games but Pitt did start the season 6-1 and are fully capable of dominating like they did earlier in the season. The Panthers were very strong on defense this season and that is critical to shutting down the option attack of Navy. The Panthers do match up well against the offense of Midshipmen and that takes away Navy's biggest advantage over opponents...that is, those that are ill prepared or simply not capable of stopping the option attack. Pitt has had plenty of time to prepare for this game and the Panthers defense is their strength. Navy's regular season (before the Army game) ended in disappointment as Houston defeated them handily and that took away their shot at playing for the AAC title. The Midshipmen followed up the disappointing loss to the Cougars with a lackluster effort against Army and are truly stumbling into this bowl game. Pittsburgh already faced the option earlier this season (against Georgia Tech) and the Panthers defense gained valuable experience in that game and Pitt's D has come a long way since then. Pittsburgh also traveled well this season as they went 5-1 ATS in road games. Navy is 14-21 ATS in games against the ACC and, the Midshipmen are outclassed again Monday in the Military Bowl.

I am playing on MINNESOTA (vs NY Giants) as my *10 SNF Game of the Year on Sunday @ 8:30 PM ET - With the Eagles falling to the Redskins on Saturday night, the Giants are eliminated from post-season contention as Washington locked up the NFC East. It's tough to see the Giants offense having a lot of push tonight with the disappointing result of last night's game. That said, I don't look for the Giants to be able to match the intensity that the Vikings bring into this game. Minnesota is still locked in a dogfight in the NFC North and will be bringing their "A game" tonight. The Vikings last five games against teams with a losing record have seen them allow just 15.8 points per game and all 5 games resulted in Minnesota victories. The Vikes are an incredible 11-3 ATS this season and the Giants are limping into this game with straight-up losses in 4 of their last 5 games. In week 14 the Giants played on Monday night while the Vikings played on Thursday night. The physical toll for New York of now playing their 3rd game in 14 days is a tough one compared to a Vikings team playing their 3rd game in 18 days. In addition to the physical toll, the emotional toll of the recent losses and knowing your season is over is a tough one for the Giants (after Redskins wrapped up NFC East last night) while the Vikings got a big boost with their huge 38-17 win over Chicago last week. This one should be ALL Minnesota on Sunday night.

I am playing on SEATTLE (vs St Louis) as my *10 Blue Marlin on Sunday @ 4:25 ET - The Seahawks have not only won five straight games, Seattle has simply been dominating opponents. In the five game win streak, Seattle has won games by an average margin of 20.4 points per victory. Needless to say, St Louis is in trouble here. The Rams are off of back to back wins but those victories came at home. On the road, the Rams are 1-5 straight-up (and 1-4-1 ATS) this season. St Louis, before the back to back home wins, had lost five straight games and averaged scoring only 10.8 points per game in those contests. This is also a revenge game for the Seahawks because they lost their season opener at St Louis by a field goal. That 34-31 defeat is a loss that Seattle will want to avenge in a big way on Sunday afternoon. Seattle's last two home games against the Rams were victories by an average margin of 16 points per win and the Hawks should easily take Sunday's game by at least 3 TD's. In games played in the last four weeks of the regular season, Seattle is on a 9-1 ATS run. As a home favorite of 10.5 to 14 points, the Seahawks are on a 6-2 ATS run. In a road game with a total set in a range of 38.5 to 42 points, the Rams are on an 0-8 ATS run. This one is ALL Seattle on Sunday as they get their revenge in a big way.

I am playing on DETROIT (vs San Francisco) as my *10 Breakfast Club on Sunday @ 1 PM ET - The 49'ers are simply ready to fade into the off-season. San Francisco hasn't put up much of a fight lately with 6 losses in their last 8 games. The average margin of defeat in those six losses was 14 points per defeat. The Lions are likely to put another big loss on the Niners here. Detroit is still playing with fire. The Lions got a 35-27 win over the Saints last week and that game was on the road. Detroit is back home for this week 16 match-up and the Lions have averaged 28.4 points per game in their last 5 home games. The Lions got good news on the injury front too as Calvin Johnson (ankle) is listed as probable for Sunday's game. Johnson has had some huge games at home and another one is likely against a Niners defense that ranks among the worst in the league. San Francisco's offense is also a concern here as they have been held to 17 points or less in 6 of their last 7 games. The 49'ers won't be able to match the potent Lions offense score for score in this one and that's why it's only a matter of time before Detroit has amassed a double digit lead in this one. The Lions, since the midway point of this season, have started to impose their will against weaker foes as Detroit is on a 3-1 SU and 3-1 ATS run against teams with a losing record. The Niners are 2-5 ATS in road games this season and are also known for "mailing it in" at the end of a season with a 2-8 ATS mark the last three seasons combined in games played in the final four weeks of the regular season. This game has the perfect ingredients for a Lions blowout win.

I am playing on UCLA (vs Nebraska) as my *10 Main Event on Saturday, December 26th @ 9:15 PM ET - The Bruins won each of the last two regular season meetings between these teams. Head coach Mora (UCLA) last faced head coach Riley (Nebraska) back in 2012 and Riley's Oregon State team knocked off the Bruins. That makes this a revenge game as far as Mora is concerned as it's the first time these coaches have met since then. The Bruins are going for a 3rd straight win in bowl action while Nebraska has lost four of their last five bowls. The Cornhuskers only went 5-7 this season and, in that regard, are fortunate to even be in a bowl game. Though the Huskers made some headlines this season with their upset of Michigan State and the fact they outgained Iowa by nearly 200 yards, those two big games came at home for Nebraska. Now the Cornhuskers are in a venue (Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, CA) that clearly favors the Bruins. That, in addition to the fact that UCLA is a solid 8-4 team and that Mora seeks revenge against Riley all combines to make this a great spot for a big Bruins win. UCLA played the much tougher schedule in comparison with Nebraska. The Bruins have a significantly stronger pass defense in comparison with the Cornhuskers. UCLA is on a 7-3 ATS run as a favorite in a range of 3.5 to 10 points and the Bruins are on a 4-0 ATS run when entering a game with two or more weeks of rest.

I am playing on PHILADELPHIA (vs Washington) as my Saturday NFL *Game of the Year* on Saturday @ 8:25 ET - This is the Eagles season Saturday night. Last year in Week 16 of the season these teams also met on Saturday night and a Redskins team with just 2 wins on the year got the upset win even though Philly outgained Washington by nearly 200 yards. The Eagles haven't forgotten that loss nor the loss at Washington earlier this season where a late Redskins TD pass with under a minute to go did the Eagles in. This is a do or die game for the Eagles while Washington can clinch the NFC East with a win. Look for the Eagles to bounce back after last week's tough result where Philly was done in by four turnovers in their ugly loss against Arizona. The Redskins have struggled on the road this season with a 1-5 straight-up record and 2-4 ATS mark this season. This is nothing new as the Skins are 7-15 ATS in road games the last three seasons combined and that includes an 0-3 ATS mark as a road dog of three points or less. The Eagles are on a long-term 60-41 ATS run when playing with revenge. The Redskins gave up over 450 yards of offense to the Bills last week so Washington was fortunate to get the win thanks to a rare, strong performance on offense. Prior to scoring 35 points against the Bills, the Redskins had averaged 19 points per game in their four previous games. The Redskins will struggle to keep up with an Eagles team piling up the yardage with Sam Bradford at QB. Done in by turnovers last week, the Philly offense limits mistakes and resumes their long-term series dominance of the Redskins after suffering rare, back to back losses to Washington in the last two meetings. 

I am playing on SOUTHERN MISS (vs Washington) as my *10 CFB *Game of the Week* on Saturday, December 26th @ 2:20 PM ET - A lot of value here with Southern Miss considering that the Golden Eagles went 9-4 straight up this season and also 10-3 ATS. Washington only went 6-6 on the year. The Huskies did face a tougher schedule but the Washington offense is truly a liability in this match-up. The Golden Eagles average over 500 yards and 40 points per game. The Huskies averaged less than 400 yards and 30 points per game. The value in the Heart of Dallas Bowl is with Southern Miss and the big points. The Huskies improved this season but they are still a young team that could struggle in a bowl setting. Last year was head coach Petersen's first bowl as the Huskies coach and all the success at Boise State did not translate over immediately as Washington lost 30-22 in the Cactus Bowl last year. With only 9 returning starters this season, the youth of this team will be an issue in this year's bowl. Southern Miss went a perfect 4-0 ATS in non-conference games this season. The Golden Eagles averaged 52 points per game in their last four games this season. The Huskies were held to 23 points or less in two of their last four games this season. Look for Southern Mississippi's potent offense to keep them in this game all the way through. 

I am playing on SAN DIEGO (@ Oakland) as my *10 NFL Game of the Week on Thursday @ 8:25 ET - San Diego is unlikely to have a letdown here as the revenge-minded Chargers play loose and build momentum from last week's emotional team win over the Dolphins. San Diego dominated Miami with edges of 26 to 13 in first downs and 442 to 231 in yardage. The Chargers are seeking revenge here for the 37 to 29 home loss to the Raiders in late October. Oakland comes into this game off of an ugly home loss to the Packers last week as early Raiders turnovers led to 14 quick points for Green Bay. That defeat officially eliminated Oakland from playoff contention and they are simply putting the wraps on another disappointing season while the Chargers are trying to "save face" here at the end of the season and that started with how hard they played in last week's big win over Miami. The Raiders are a very poor 6-20 ATS in their last 26 games as a home favorite and they appear to very over-priced in this spot. Take advantage with the underdog Chargers in this one. 

I am playing on SAN DIEGO STATE (vs Cincinnati) as my *10 BEST BET on Thursday, December 24th @ 8 PM ET - QB Gunner Kiel is out for Cincinnati and QB Maxwell Smith is out for San Diego State. The key difference of how these teams are impacted by the injury situation at QB is that the Bearcats rely heavily on their passing attack while the Aztecs rely much less on the pass and much more on their ground game. The potent San Diego State rushing attack is led by RB Donnel Pumphrey who is the Offensive Player of the Year for the Mountain West Conference. The Bearcats allow nearly 200 rushing yards per game and an average of 5 yards per carry and I expect the weak Cincy run defense to be exploited by San Diego State in this game. The Aztecs have the much better defense in this match-up as they allowed just 17 points per game this season while Cincinnati was rolled for 30 points per game. Off the loss in last year's bowl game against Air Force, San Diego State wants to make the most of the opportunity this season and I look for them to roll to the solid victory here as a power ground game and the better defense is the perfect combo to back a team especially when they are in this fantastic price range!

I am playing on WESTERN MICHIGAN (vs Middle Tennessee State) as my *10 ANNIHILATOR on Thursday, December 24th @ Noon ET - The Broncos, coming from the Mid-American Conference, played a tougher schedule than did Middle Tennessee State, coming from the SunBelt Conference. Western Michigan got a big upset win on the road at Toledo in their regular season finale. Knocking off a solid team like the Rockets on the road gives the Broncos a huge boost of confidence heading into the season finale. The Blue Raiders come into this game on a strong season-ending run but faced some ultra weak competition to wrap up the regular season with games against the likes of Florida Atlantic, North Texas, and UT-San Antonio. That could leave the Middle Tennessee State ill-prepared for the challenges they will face with a solid MAC team Thursday. Western Michigan is 8-4 ATS when off of a win against a conference rival while MTSU is 6-9 ATS when off of a win over a conference foe. Also, the Blue Raiders are 2-4 ATS when off of a bye week and 2-5 ATS as an underdog when the line is set in a range of +3.5 to +10 points. Western Michigan averages nearly 500 yards of offense per game and has the better rushing attack in this match-up. Look for that to be the difference as the Broncos grind out the bowl win in the Bahamas.

I am playing on UTAH STATE (vs Akron) as my *10 ANNIHILATOR on Tuesday, December 22nd @ 3:30 ET - Certainly the location of this game (in Idaho) favors the Aggies. Utah State surprisingly did lose 6 games this season and, sitting at 6-6, the Aggies are hungry for a win here to make sure they have a winning season. The Zips are coached by Bowden and, with Auburn, he went to 3 bowls and compiled an 0-3 ATS record. Akron is a sizable dog here and they should be. Utah State played the much tougher schedule. Though both defenses look strong, the Aggies performance on that side of the ball is much more impressive as they have faced the tougher opposition. Utah State is coached by Wells and he's got a 2-0 ATS mark in bowls heading into the Idaho Potato Bowl. The Aggies might have had a better regular season were it not for QB Chuckie Keeton having some injury issues. With getting in some important late season action and now having extra time to rest prior to this game, look for Keeton to be back in top form and that will help key what should be a blowout win for Utah State. The Aggies will be focused on shutting down an offense that is one of the weakest in the MAC. Wells two bowl appearances saw his teams allow an average of just 10 points per game and I expect another dominating effort from his Aggies defense on Tuesday afternoon. 

I am playing on PHILADELPHIA (vs Arizona) as my *10 NFL *Game of the Week* on Sunday @ 8:30 PM ET - Even though the Cardinals continued their winning streak last week it was the 3rd time in their last 4 games that Arizona failed to get the cover. The Cards allowed nearly 400 yards of offense in last week's tight win and it was the 3rd time in their last 4 games that Arizona allowed passing yards of 278 or more. The Cardinals are 4-6 ATS and on a long-term 26-38 ATS run as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Arizona is taking on an Eagles team surging with confidence after back to back wins over the Patriots and Bills. The return of QB Sam Bradford from injury as well as notching these two key victories, has led to a resurgent feeling in the Eagles in the locker-room. Philadelphia is tied for first place in the division and the Eagles know they control their own destiny as to whether they make the post-season or not. Motivation and emotion are key factors in the NFL and the Eagles certainly have those areas working in their favor for this one. Philadelphia has won 10 of the last 14 home match-ups versus Arizona. The Eagles have rushed for over 115 yards in 3 of their last 4 games. The Cardinals have been held under 98 rushing yards in 3 of their last 4 games. The ground game could be a key in this tough grudge match battle and that favors the Eagles in the trenches. Philadelphia has games with the Giants and Redskins to wrap up their season but there is no way they'll overlook the 11-2 Cardinals. Arizona finishes their season with the 9-4 Packers and a big rivalry game with the 8-5 Seahawks. The Cards could get caught underestimating this scrappy, resurgent Eagles team on Sunday night. 

I am playing on ATLANTA (@ Jacksonville) as my *10 NFL Game of the Month on Sunday @ 1 PM ET - The Falcons are facing a Jaguars team that is off of a pair of unusually high-scoring games and the fact that the Jags scored an average of 45 points per game in the past two games has helped to inflate this number. Jacksonville scored 51 points last week but that was on only 380 yards of offense. The Jaguars are facing a Falcons defense that allowed just 19 points per game in their six games prior to their rare, poor performance last week. Look for Atlanta's defense to have its ears pinned back and be ready to go hard Sunday after the embarrassment of the 38-0 loss last week. The Jaguars are still alive in the weak AFC South division in terms of the playoff picture. That means the pressure is on Jacksonville here while the Falcons are basically just playing for next season. That means a relaxed Atlanta team will be taking the field here. Jacksonville will try to play conservative here and just not make mistakes against a team they know they should beat because Atlanta has lost 6 in a row. The problem with this is teams often get themselves in trouble when trying to play too conservatively and basically play "not to lose". Look for that to be the situation with the Jaguars this week. As for Atlanta, the Falcons will look to pound the ball on the ground after too many turnovers have led to trouble for them in recent weeks. The result is an aggressive, physical Atlanta team on both sides of the ball leading to a big effort for the Falcons here and a great shot at the outright upset win. Jacksonville is on a 1-9 SU and 1-9 ATS run in their last 10 games against non-conference opponents. The Jags struggle again against an NFC foe.

I am playing on DALLAS (vs New York Jets) as my *10 Main Event on Saturday @ 8:25 ET - The Cowboys had a tough effort at Green Bay last week as they managed just 7 points and 11 first downs. Look for a big bounce back effort here from Dallas as they are still alive in the very weak NFC East division. Last week was the 2nd time in 4 weeks that the Cowboys ran for more than 165 yards. Getting the ground game going against the Jets will open things up for the aerial attack and the pass defense is the one mediocre area of the Jets defense. Look for the Cowboys to put up a lot more points than many are expecting here. On other side of the ball, the Jets will certainly put up some points but they are not going to be able to keep up with the Cowboys in this one. Dallas ranks among the top teams in the league at defending the pass. The Jets, on the other hand, allowed 268 passing yards to the Titans last week and the Jets were fortunate that ended up equating to only 8 points. The Jets have allowed 284 passing yards per game the past eight weeks! Also, prior to allowing just 8 points to Tennessee, the Jets had given up an average of 24 points per game the past eight games. New York did not allow less than 20 points in any of those games. The Cowboys, at home and still mathematically alive in the playoff race, certainly will bring an intense effort here!

I am playing on UTAH (vs BYU) as my *10 Opening Day Personal Favorite on Saturday, December 19th @ 3:30 PM ET - The fact that Utah RB Devontae Booker is out is keeping this line lower than it should be. The Utes will still be able to get solid running considering the depth they have at that position. On the other side of the ball is the key as Utah's solid defense will lead the way. Though both teams in this match-up have a solid defense, the Utes hold the edge with their run defense. Utah also has a big edge at special teams where they have been particular strong in both ends of the punting game as well as the field goal unit. Strong legs for Utah's kicking game and the Utes have perhaps the top overall special teams units in the nation. Another key here is that BYU's strength of schedule is nowhere close to the strong schedule that Utah faced this season. This factor, along with BYU's 8-5 ATS record compared to Utah's 5-7 ATS record this season, is helping to provide exceptional line value on a Utes team that is laying just a couple points in this match-up. Of course there has been extra time off leading into this bowl match-up and Brigham Young is 0-7 ATS after a bye week. Utah is on a 9-1 ATS run in non-conference games. The Utes are 30-13 ATS when playing with two or more weeks of rest. 

I am playing on CHICAGO (vs Washington) as my *10 NFL *Game of the Year* on Sunday @ 1 PM ET - Very tough spot for the Redskins. On Monday night against the Cowboys, Washington had a chance to take sole possession of first place in the NFC East. Instead, they lost a nail-biter 19-16 and now are tied with the Giants and Eagles for first place with the Cowboys just a single game back. Not only is it short rest for the Redskins this week (a physical toll) but there is also the emotional toll of a very tough home loss in a spot where the Skins had a chance to really put themselves in a fantastic position in the division. This is one of only 4 games remaining and the Redskins are still lamenting the position they could have been in. The Bears also come in off of a tough game but the advantages here for Chicago include a second straight home game and the fact the Bears are on regular rest here. The Redskins have lost all 5 of their road games this season and they have only covered one of those five games. Washington is on a 6-15 ATS run in road games the past three seasons and also 4-12 ATS against teams with a losing record. The Bears are 6-2 ATS this season when playing on rest of six days or less. Chicago had a 20-13 edge in first downs against the 49'ers last week and the Bears did outplay the Niners but lost in OT. Chicago will bounce back huge this week against a Redskins team that is losing by an average margin of 15 points per defeat on the road this season and that has been outgained by more than 150 yards per game in road games this year. Look for Chicago's ground game on offense and solid pass defense (rank as one of the best in the league) to key this big win over Washington Sunday.

I am playing on CLEVELAND (vs San Francisco) as my *10 BLUE MARLIN on Sunday @ 1 PM ET - The 49'ers are off of a 'fluke' win at Chicago last week as they won in overtime despite only having 13 first downs in the entire game. San Francisco now faces a Browns team that is very hungry for a win and at home with Johnny Manziel back under center. Look for this to result in a big effort from the Browns and Cleveland will take advantage of a San Francisco team traveling east for a second straight week. The 49'ers had averaged just 10.4 points per game in their five games prior to the crazy win at Chicago last week. San Francisco has struggled to move the ball all season long. The Browns have averaged 269 passing yards per game in their past three games and Manziel has had a big game against the division rival Steelers in his most recent start. The 49'ers are 23-40 ATS in road games with a total set in a range between 38.5 and 42 points. San Francisco also was 0-5 straight-up and 1-4 ATS this season in road games before coming up with the win at Chicago last week. Look for Cleveland to respond in a big way for a home win here as Manziel has another big game against a weak Niners defense.

I am playing on SAN DIEGO (@ Kansas City) as my *10 NFL Shocker Game of the Week on Sunday @ 1 PM ET - Kansas City got the win at Oakland last week despite being outgained by a 361 to 232 margin. The Chiefs were quite fortunate and that 34-23 win is helping to drive this line higher than it should be. San Diego is off a loss to Denver but the Chargers held the Broncos to just 17 points and less than 300 yards of offense. San Diego now seeks revenge against the Chiefs for an embarrassing 33-3 loss at home just three weeks ago. That said, there is no shortage of motivation here for the Chargers and San Diego has averaged 356 passing yards per game in the Chargers last three road games. Phillip Rivers and Company will be ready to do some damage here after being held to 3 points last week by Denver and also held to 3 points in their prior match-up with the Chiefs. The Chargers are already a perfect 2-0 ATS this season when off of a loss against a division rival and I look for them to make up for the loss to Denver by absolutely giving the Chiefs all they can handle here. Kansas City has gone 5-9 ATS when off of a divisional game and the "lucky" win over Oakland last week makes them very vulnerable to a hungry underdog San Diego team this week.

I am playing on ARMY (vs Navy) as my *10 Main Event on Saturday @ 3 PM ET - Big points here. Of course it goes without saying that Navy is the better team by far but these teams are very familiar with each other and often run similar offenses. That helps close the gap between the teams even though the Midshipmen are definitely superior. This is a big reason that the Black Knights have covered 4 of the last 6 meetings. Also, looking closely at the lost four years worth of meetings, Army has been in the game with a chance to win it in the fourth quarter in three of the past four years. The Midshipmen have had trouble putting away the Black Knights in recent meetings and that should be the case again Saturday. Navy is 2-4 ATS as a favorite of 21.5 to 31 points. Army is 17-9 ATS as an underdog of 21.5 to 31 points. The Black Knights have covered 3 of their last four games played on a neutral field. Army is only allowing 28.5 points per game on the season and yet here they are an underdog of more than 3 TDs against a Navy team that has struggled to create much separation from them in recent meetings. Look for the Black Knights to stay well within this inflated number. 

I am playing on MINNESOTA (@ Arizona) as my *10 Main Event on Thursday @ 8:25 ET - The Vikings only had 9 first downs in last week's embarrassing 38 to 7 home loss to Seattle. The Cardinals only gave up 9 first downs in their easy 27 to 3 road win at St Louis last week. This sets things up very nicely for a contrarian play this week as the team (Minnesota) that got dominated last week now takes on the team (Arizona) that was on the right side of some domination last week. Of course most will flock to back the Cardinals here but that is underestimating the emotional aspect of football. Off of that insanely ugly loss last week, the Vikings are likely to bounce back with a huge effort this week. As for the Cardinals, they could be a little flat here after the big divisional win last week and Arizona is hosting a Minnesota team that has covered 14 of last 18 in non-divisional games. The Vikings are very solid against the pass and also have a powerful ground game on offense. Look for both of these areas of strength to be keys that help keep Minnesota inside the large number on this game. The Cardinals are on a 2-5 ATS run when off of a win against a division rival. Also, Arizona is on a 1-4 ATS run in Thursday games and have failed to cover the spread 8 of the last 9 times they have been a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 points. The Vikings are 11-6 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points and Minnesota is 5-1 ATS in road games this season.

I am playing on DALLAS (@ Washington) as my *10 NFC East *GAME OF THE YEAR* on Monday @ 8:30 PM ET - Dallas has won three of their last four meetings with Washington. Last year the Cowboys wrapped up the season by demolishing the Redskins in a 44-17 final. With the Giants losing to the Jets on Sunday, the NFC East is still absolutely up for grabs. Dallas is certainly well aware of the fact that, no matter how frustrating this season has been to this point, the Cowboys can move to within a game of first place by knocking off the Redskins tonight. Dallas is coming off of a loss to Carolina on Thanksgiving Day so they have the rest edge heading into this match-up as the Redskins hosted the Giants on Sunday last week. The Cowboys held the Panthers under 300 yards of offense last week but Dallas lost the game because of turnovers. The Redskins got by the Giants last week but they were the beneficiary of a 3-0 edge in turnovers just as the Cowboys were on the wrong side of a 3-0 turnover margin against Carolina. All of this is combining to create some nice line value for the underdog in this Monday night match-up. Though the Cowboys are again without Romo, the Dallas defense has been playing exceptionally well in their last three games. The road team has won each of the last three meetings between these teams and I look for that to be the end result tonight as well. The points are worth taking in this match-up. The Redskins are on a 13-27 ATS run as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. Dallas is on a 6-2 ATS run as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. 

I am playing on NEW ORLEANS (vs Carolina) as my *10 Best Bet on Sunday @ 4:25 ET - The Saints fit the definition of a classic 'ugly dog' as New Orleans has lost - and also failed to cover - three straight games. This lack of performance at the betting window has led to some exceptional home dog value with New Orleans this week. Oftentimes when no one wants a team that is precisely the best time to back them. The Saints are getting a lot of value here because the Panthers are undefeated on the season, have covered four straight games, and everyone watched Carolina trounce Dallas on Thanksgiving Day. What is interesting about the Turkey Day game is that the Panthers had less than 300 yards of offense against the Cowboys. The key to the win for Carolina was the Dallas turnovers as the Cowboys had three in the game. In fact, the Panthers offense has only averaged about 322 yards per game in their last three games. New Orleans is averaging over 400 yards of offense per game on the season and I look for them to give the Panthers all they can handle here. It is easy for Carolina to overlook the 4-7 Saints here as the Panthers are 11-0 on the season and have defeated New Orleans in each of their last two meetings. The Saints will be out for revenge here and are likely to be the more motivated team. New Orleans is 3-0 ATS this season and 7-2 ATS the last three seasons when playing with revenge. Look for a shocker at the Superdome on Sunday.

I am playing on PHILADELPHIA (@ New England) as my *10 Game of the Week on Sunday @ 4:25 ET - Sam Bradford is expected to be back at QB for the Eagles this week and anyone who doesn't think that is a big deal must not have watched Marc Sanchez play the last few weeks. The fact is that, with the whole world against the Eagles and coach Chip Kelly, there has likely never been a better time to back them than this week. The Patriots are dealing with a major injury bug and also are coming off of a meltdown defeat at Denver that ended their unbeaten season. While a common theory is to back a good team off of a loss, the Patriots are likely to have some carryover effect from the loss to the Broncos. That defeat against a Broncos team playing with Osweiler at QB says a lot about just how bad the Patriots current situation is. They are plagued by injuries that have limited the weapons Tom Brady has to throw to. Additionally, the Pats offensive line injuries throughout the season have worn on them up to this point even as they have gotten healthier along the line. The cohesiveness of the unit has not been the same. That's part of the reason the Pats were outgained by over 100 yards last week at Denver. With the Pats offense struggling the points could again be a little harder to come by this week as the Eagles defense has welcomed the extra rest since they played on Thanksgiving. Philly's D is fired up for a strong performance after the rarity of allowing a ridiculous 45 points in back to back weeks. The Patriots are 15-27 ATS in home games with a total set between 45.5 and 49 points. The Eagles are 7-4 straight-up in their last 11 games on turf and, with good weather expected in New England and the Eagles having the healthier offense, look for Philly to be in this one all the way and possibly even steal the upset win on the road.

I am playing on TENNESSEE (vs Jacksonville) as my *10 Blue Marlin on Sunday @ 1 ET - Jacksonville got the home win over Tennessee in mid-November and now it is time for the Titans to return the favor in the rematch. The home team has won each of the last three meetings between these teams. Additionally, the Jaguars are dealing with a cluster of injuries while the Titans come into this game in surprisingly good shape from an injury standpoint. The Titans have a long-term record of 21-11 ATS as a home favorite of 3 points or less. The Jaguars are on a 15-22 ATS run as an underdog. The Jags came back late to beat the Titans in their recent match-up. Also, Tennessee gave up a late TD for the deciding score in their loss to Oakland last week. These tight losses have led to value here with the short home favorite Sunday. On the season the Titans have the better defense, they also are the healthier team, they have the home field edge here, and they rank among the league leaders in sacks with a better pass rush than the Jaguars. Look for Tennessee to get the big revenging win here.

I am playing on IOWA (vs Michigan State) as my *10 CFB Game of the Week @ 8:15 ET Saturday - Of course this battle is for more than just the Big Ten Championship as the winner will undoubtedly be in line for one of the 'final four' playoff spots. I am backing the undefeated Hawkeyes who come into this one as an underdog despite having a fantastic season with an unblemished record. Iowa has covered 9 of the last 12 meetings between these teams and there have been 5 outright upsets by the dog in the last 12 match-ups. Both teams have stellar defenses but Iowa's offense has shown a little more this season and also gets a boost with the return of RB Canzeri who is back healthy and has run for nearly 1,000 yards plus 12 TD's this season. Iowa was held to 28 points in their win over Nebraska last week but had previously scored at least 40 points in 4 of their last 8 games. The Spartans scored 55 points in their blowout win over Penn State last week but, prior to that, Michigan State had only scored more than 38 points once this entire season. Look for Iowa's powerful ground game to be the difference maker on offense in this one. The Hawkeyes ground game has averaged 70+ more yards per game when you compare what Iowa and Michigan State have each done over their last 7 games. Look for the Hawkeyes to pound out one more win. The Spartans are 3-7 ATS as a favorite this season. Iowa is 7-3 ATS as a dog the last 3 seasons.

I am playing on AIR FORCE (vs San Diego State) as my *10 Best Bet on Saturday @ 7:30 PM ET - The Aztecs have lost (and failed to cover) both times they hosted a non-regular season game at home in Qualcomm Stadium. The most recent time was in the 2014 Poinsettia Bowl when San Diego State faced Navy (coincidentally also a triple option team like Air Force) and the Aztecs lost 17 to 16. San Diego State does have a solid defense but their passing attack has not been overly impressive under QB Smith. It will be difficult for the Aztecs to build up a margin here if they have to rely too heavily on Pumphrey and the running game. The Falcons were 6-1 in Mountain West action this season before they seemingly overlooked New Mexico last week and ended up losing by a dozen points. Look for that loss to have Air Force a little extra aggressive with this big opportunity now on the table in the Mountain West Championship Game Saturday. The Falcons are 3-1 ATS as an underdog this season. San Diego State has been held to 144 yards or less in 5 of their last 6 games. Air Force, well known for their powerful ground attack, has also been getting the job done through the air in recent weeks with a 239 passing yards per week the past three weeks. The Falcons were hurt by turnovers last week at New Mexico and that has impacted the line set on this game. Air Force is simply getting too many points in this match-up and San Diego State once again struggles with a triple option team.

I am playing on FLORIDA (vs Alabama) as my *10 Main Event on Saturday @ 4 ET - Looks like another case of a very strong football team simply being given way too many points. While Alabama certainly is deserving of plenty of respect, laying this many points against a Gators team that has only given up more than 14 points in 4 of their 12 games this season certainly seems to be a little much. Florida can play 'some D' to say the least! The Gators have one of the top defenses in the nation and Florida now faces an Alabama team that also has a stellar defense but whose offense is perhaps not as powerful as what the betting markets are suggesting here. The Crimson Tide offense has been held to 31 points or less in each of their last 6 SEC games and none of those contests was against a defense as strong as the Gators defense. Though Florida's defensive line is a little 'beat up' heading into this game it is still a formidable defensive unit that is going to challenge the Crimson Tide offense. Alabama has failed to cover 3 of their last 4 games played in domes. The Gators are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games played on a neutral field. Big points here...big points worth the taking. Florida's 25 points loss to FSU last week saw them outgained by only 42 yards in the game so the 'deceiving final score' is helping to offer line value here.

I am playing on GREEN BAY (@ Detroit) as my *10 Main Event on Thursday @ 8:25 ET - The Packers are off of their Thanksgiving Day loss to the Bears where they had 24 first downs (compared to just 17 for Chicago) and where Green Bay did outgain the Bears by 74 yards. The Pack simply did themselves in with turnovers and I look for them to respond in a big way in this revenge match-up with the Lions. Back at Lambeau Field just a few weeks ago, the Lions marched into Green Bay and got their first win there since '91. The Packers are ready to avenge that loss and they catch the Lions at the perfect time to do just that. Detroit is off of a blowout win over the Eagles on Thanksgiving Day. The Lions have now won three straight games but Detroit is 2-8 ATS when they are on a winning streak of two games or more. Overall, the Lions are 3-6 ATS this season (and 6-11 ATS the last three seasons) when they are an underdog. In this match-up Detroit is only getting 3 points against the Packers and Green Bay should win this one in a true road rout. The Packers are 14-6 ATS as a road favorite in divisional games. In Green Bay's most recent road game they went into Minnesota and blasted the Vikings by a 30-13 final score. The Packers defense is giving up about 7 points per game less than Detroit is so far this season. Not only do they have the better defense, Green Bay also has the stronger ground game attack on offense and I look for that rushing attack to wear down the Lions here as the Packers get the revenge win on the road.