Sports Picks & Predictions

I'm playing on the NY JETS.   Last week saw the Jets blow a 21-3 lead at Green Bay, losing 31-24, but covering as underdogs.  The Bears were outright winners in San Francisco, but their game went the opposite way of the Jets as they fell behind early only to mount a successful comeback.  I'm not sold that is all is right with Chicago now. I'll be going with the Jets.

Thanks to a +4 turnover margin, the Bears were able to come from behind and beat San Francisco 28-20.  Assuming the Jets can take better care of the football than the 49ers did, Chicago still has a lot to prove in my book.

This is a team that lost outright in Week 1, at home, to Buffalo.  They were down 20-7 going into the fourth quarter last Sunday. So they're one big quarter away from being 0-2 and really they hadn't looked very good at all before that big fourth quarter in San Francisco.

Winning back to back primetime games is not easy to do.  Especially when you are the road team in both games.  That's the situation for Chicago and I'm just not confident in them in this spot given a 2-6 ATS record off a win under Marc Trestman. Overall, the Bears are a bankroll busting 5-12-1 ATS the last two seasons.

The Bears' run defense looks no better this year. They've given up an average of 5.3 yards per carry in two games, allowing 320 yards on the ground.  The Jets have run the ball very well in their two games, including 212 yards in the win vs. Oakland.  They had 146 more last week against the Packers.  They also have a mobile QB in Geno Smith.  

Not only do the Jets have the league's best rushing offense, but they also have the league's best rushing defense.  They've allowed an average of just 52.5 yards per game so far.

The Jets were 6-2 SU last year off a loss.  They had the same record at home.  I'll lay a short number in this situation.  10* main event.

I'm playing on MIAMI.   Neither of these teams played well last week.  Actually, I take that back.  Kansas City played better than expected in covering the spread in a 24-17 loss to the Broncos. But the bottom line is that the Chiefs have opened 0-2, and this has the look of a difficult season for them.  I'll lay the points with the Dolphins here.

Miami at least has a win to its credit, beating New England in Week 1.  That was here at home.  They didn't fare nearly as well last week up in Buffalo, but that's a place where they traditionally struggle.  Back at home, I'd expect them to bounce back.

Both teams may be without their starting running back for this game (check statuses).   It is confirmed that Miami will not have Knowshon Moreno available for the next four weeks after he dislocated his elbow against the Bills.  Kansas City is still unsure of the status of Jamaal Charles, but remember he wasn't very effective in an opening week loss to Tennessee.  Another key injury the Chiefs are dealing with is the ankle of starting safety Eric Berry.

Overall, seven Kansas City starters are either injured or suspended right now.

I have to wonder how KC will respond after suffering such a tough loss in Denver last week.  History says not well as the team is 3-7 ATS off its last 10 straight up losses while also going 1-4 ATS off its last five ATS wins.  

Miami has done well at home recently, covering five of six.  They are also 5-2 ATS in September the last two years.

Chiefs QB Alex Smith has not played well and comes into this game as the league's lowest rated passer.  If the Dolphins offensive line can protect Ryan Tannehill the same way they did vs. New England, then they should leave with the cash.  10* personal favorite. 

I'm playing on OAKLAND.   Those who find value in taking large underdogs will have that theory put to the test this week as the Raiders visit New England.   This line was quickly bet up and it has reached a point where I personally feel the value is on Oakland.

Don't get me wrong; the Raiders have struggled.  Most would consider them to be the worst team in the league.  That's why they're getting so many points.  But I am of the opinion that this is simply too many points to lay in an NFL game, especially one taking place so early in the season.  There's always the issue of motivation for the favorite.  

New England is a team that's earned a reputation for putting up a lot of points.  But even though they scored 30 last week on Minnesota, I don't believe this Patriots offense is as good as previous editions.  They failed to gain even 300 yards against the Vikings and one of their three touchdowns came after a blocked field goal.

Tom Brady seems to be in a bit of a decline.  He threw for just 149 yards last week after completing only 51.8 percent of his passes in the first game.

The Patriots have also hurt themselves.  They've had a league-high 263 yards go against them due to penalties.

Bad starts have been another issue.   They have fallen behind 7-0 in both games thus far.  Against Miami, they went three and out, then had a punt blocked.  Versus Minnesota, they gave up a seven-play, 80 yard opening drive.  With the spread being this high, falling behind at all would make it very difficult to cover.

New England has not been a good bet as a double digit fave recently. They are just 6-14 ATS laying 10 or more points dating back to the 2008 season including 1-6 ATS the last seven times.  10* best bet. 

I'm playing the GIANTS.  For a second straight week, Houston is a road favorite.  They easily covered last week, but that was against Oakland.  The Giants come in desperately needing a win, having opened 0-2, both straight up and against the spread.  As a home underdog, I think they are a tremendous value in Week 3.

Let's not forget the Texans also opened 2-0 last year. They would go on to lose their final 14 games in what was a disastrous season. No one, including me, is saying that will happen again in 2014.  But, the level of competition hasn't been too significant to this point either.  So far, Houston has beaten both the Redskins and the Raiders, two teams that combined for just seven wins a year ago.

The Giants have played a couple of decent teams in Detroit and Arizona.  While we all saw them struggle in the first game (Monday night game), they actually played a lot better last week vs. the Cardinals.  With the team down 22-14, running back Rashad Jennings had a costly fumble inside the Arizona 20-yard line.  That was only after a Ted Ginn punt return for a TD and the Giants fumbling the ensuing kickoff away, setting up a Cardinals' field goal.

One positive development for New York against Arizona was the play of QB Eli Manning.  After a rough preseason, Manning appeared to have a grasp of the new offense for the first time.  He completed 26 of 39 pass attempts for 277 yards and two touchdowns.  One of his two interceptions came on a desperation heave at the end of the game.  The other was on a tipped ball.  

Last week's win and cover by the Texans broke an 8-game ATS losing streak when looking to follow up a SU win.  

Surprisingly, despite two relatively comfortable wins, Houston has been outgained in both games this year.  Turnovers, which killed them last year, have swung in their favor and that's a big reason for them being unbeaten right now.  But I look for the Giants to get the breaks in this one.  10* best bet.

I'm playing on WASHINGTON STATE.  One could certainly make the argument that this game matches up the best team and worst team from the Pac 12.  But the pointspread is referred to the "great equalizer" for a reason.   Taking a generous amount of points at home this week, I like Washington State to cover against #2 Oregon.  

Though they are just 1-2 SU/ATS, Washington State has yet to be an underdog.  So the disappointing start to the season that includes losses to both Rutgers and Nevada actually works in our favor here.  It is likely that the Cougars wouldn't be getting nearly this many points had they lost only once and certainly not if they were unbeaten.  

The Cougars have actually covered four years in a row against the Ducks, every time as a big dog.  Last year's game saw them lose 62-38 down in Eugene, but they were taking nearly 40 points.

This will be the first time Oregon has played on the road this season.  After covering the spread in each of the final eight road games under Chip Kelly, the Ducks fell to 3-2 SU/ATS outside of Eugene last year under Mark Helfrich.

This is also the first time that Washington State has played UO in Pullman since 2010.  The 2012 "home game" was actually played in Seattle.   That 2010 matchup was the closest between the teams in recent memory as the Ducks won by "only" 20 points.  

As long as Mike Leach is the coach, you know WSU is going to put points on the board.  While they certainly may have trouble stopping Oregon on offense, the Cougars should be able to score enough to stay within the generous number.   The team averaged 31.0 points per game last season and is up over 36 PPG through three games this year.  10* main event. 

I'm playing on ARIZONA.   I believe Rich Rodriguez's team will be taking this game seriously as they very nearly lost to Cal last year in Berkeley as a big favorite.   But this year's game is at home and this isn't the first time in 2014 that I've backed the Wildcats in Tucson.  They came out of the gates with a real easy 58-13 win over UNLV in the opener.

Since that time, it's been a pair of close calls for "Rich Rod."  I went against his team in Week 2 as they visited UT-San Antonio and won by just a 26-23 margin.   I laid off last week's home game vs. Nevada as they won 35-28, but still feel I've got a pretty good pulse on Arizona nonetheless.

With the two narrow wins, bettors have lined up early to bet against the Wildcats.  I feel that works to our advantage.   A Cal team I played in the opening week against Northwestern (a win) is now being overvalued.

I say that because the Bears have lost their last 14 Pac 12 games.  That's the second longest conference losing streak in the entire country right now.

Both teams are pretty good at stopping the run.  But when it comes to offense, Arizona is much better.  In fact, there are few better nationally on that side of the ball.  They come in averaging 582.7 yards per game.  That is tops among all Pac 12 teams and 8th overall in the country.  The Wildcats may be averaging slightly less points than they were at this time last year, but the yardage is up, both on a per play and per game basis.

Freshman QB Anu Soloman has been better than expected as has freshman running back Nick Wilson, who had big shoes to fill after Ka'Deem Carey went to the NFL.

I just don't see Cal as being ready to compete with the upper echelon in the conference.  10* personal favorite. 

I'm playing on SMU.   Sometimes, when taking a look at a given matchup, there's no disputing who the underdog should be.  This is one of those instances as Southern Methodist hosts #6 Texas A&M.   The Aggies are rightfully big favorites in this spot, but I think too big of favorites against a SMU team that will play desperate football here.  I'm going to take the points.

To say things haven't gone well for SMU thus far would be a mild understatement.  They lost their first two games - against Baylor and North Texas - by a combined 88-6 margin.  Then their coach June Jones resigned due to personal reasons.    It's hard to imagine any team in the country being in worse shape after only three games than the Mustangs are.  

But they have had an extra week to prepare and should come out fired up to play this, their first home game of the season, for a new head coach.   Tom Mason, who was the defensive coordinator under Jones, is taking over on an interim basis for the remainder of the year.

I just think that this is too many points for any team to lay on the road.   It would be easy for Texas A&M to look past this game and towards a stretch of four key SEC West battles that follow it.  

Also, the Aggies will be without one of their key playmakers, Speedy Noil.  The aptly named wide receiver has suffered an unspecified injury according to coach Kevin Sumlin.  The five-star recruit, who also returns punts and kicks, currently leads the team in all-purpose yardage.

The Aggies "only" won by 28 points last week over Rice and that was at home.  I can guarantee you that no matter where the line closes, it will be the most points the team has had to lay in any road game during Sumlin's tenure at College Station.   10* best bet. 

I'm playing on KANSAS STATE.   Auburn deserves all the respect that it's getting here from the oddsmakers as they come into Thursday night on a 13-0 ATS run.   But that being said, I still feel they're laying too many points against a ranked, non-conference foe that has treated its own backers well when playing at home.  I'll be taking the points in this one.

Kansas State boasts an 88-53 ATS home record in Bill Snyder's 22 years in Manhattan.  That's 62.5%.   They may not have covered the spread in the opening game this year, but they were also laying in excess of 40 points against Stephen F. Austin.   

Laying points on the road in these Thursday night situations is always tough.   Take note of the fact Auburn has not played a true road game out of conference in the last two seasons.  The have played one non-SEC foe at a neutral site each year. In 2012, they lost their opening game to Clemson in Atlanta and then of course last year fell to Florida State in the BCS Championship Game.  

Since Snyder came back to the school in 2007, Kansas State has a 27-7 SU home record.  Surprisingly, they lost three times at home last year, matching the number of losses from the previous three seasons combined.  But all three losses were by 10 points or less.  

The key for the Wildcats will be stopping the run.  Auburn led the nation in rushing yardage last season and again is averaging well over 300 yards per game on the ground this year.  But Kansas State has allowed just 174 yards rushing total in two games.    10* main event.

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA.   With the Colts losing last week, many are going to be pointing towards Andrew Luck's 9-0-1 ATS record off a SU loss the last two years.  But I don't necessarily share that same faith in this year's Colts.  Especially now that they're laying points to a Philadelphia team that can score in bunches.  I'm taking the Eagles.  

Neither of these teams got off to good starts in Week 1.  Indianapolis obviously lost, falling to Denver 32-24.  But because they were able to come back from a 24-0 deficit to cover, I think the public is putting too much faith in them.   Philadelphia was trailing by a similar margin last week vs. Jacksonville, but still covered a double digit spread against Jacksonville.  That's more impresssive to me.

I expect Indy to struggle all season defensively.  They were already going to be without Robert Mathis for four games (suspended), but now he's lost for the year after injuring himself while working out.  Mathis led the NFL in sacks (19.5) last year.  That's a big loss.  They also allowed 102 yards rushing against the Broncos.  Last year, Philadelphia led the NFL in rushing.

The Colts have also become too one-dimensional on offense.  They can't run the ball and the Trent Richardson trade looks worse with each passing game.  Andrew Luck just doesn't have enough help this year.

The team will be weaker at linebacker in this game with Jerrell Freeman (33 straight starts) not playing because of a hamstring injury.  His replacement, Josh McNary, missed a good deal of training camp.

Even with two backups playing last week (will be the same this week), Philadelphia's offensive line didn't allow a sack in the second half against Jacksonville.  That's impressive.  

Though Indy has proven itself to be a great bounce back team, I just don't trust this defense enough to call for them to even win the game.  10* main event.

I'm playing on ST. LOUIS.   Both of these teams are off ugly home losses to start the year.  Already coming into the game with problems at QB, St. Louis scored only six points in an ugly loss to Minnesota at home that saw them have to call upon third-string QB Austin Davis (remember that Sam Bradford is out for the year).  Tampa Bay hardly did any better.  They scored only 14 points in a home loss to Carolina.  Josh McCown did not look like the same quarterback we saw for a nice stretch last year in Chicago, including tossing a horrible interception right after fumbling the ball on the same play.

Because Tampa Bay was expected to improve this year and St. Louis was expected to basically be the same or worse, the public has gotten down early on the Bucs in this game, pushing the line higher than it should be.  Tampa might win this one, but I can't see them covering.  Not after last week's performance.

This is the kind of matchup where I'd probably take the dog regardless.  Because the game is in Tampa, it's obviously going to be the Rams catching points.  But with a very good front four, I believe they're uniquely suited to stopping a Bucs offense that looked pretty lost last week.

When the advanced line for this game was posted at the Westgate (formerly Las Vegas Hilton) prior to the Week 1 kickoffs, it had Tampa Bay laying only 2.5 points.  While the Rams certainly didn't perform up to expectations last week, neither did the Buccaneers, so in this instance I feel the line move, especially as significant as it is, is unwarranted.

TB was held scoreless for three quarters last week and quite frankly McCown looked horrible.  He threw for only 183 yards on 35 attempts, which works out to 5.2 YPA.  That's an ugly number.

McCown's job this week is made more difficult by the fact that Logan Mankins is out. Acquired in a trade with New England right before the regular season, Mankins was supposed to be the difference maker for a Bucs offensive line that otherwise had plenty of question marks.  Even with Chris Long being injured, the Rams' front four remains talented enough (they still have Robert Quinn), to make it long day for the Bucs up front.  10* best bet. 

I'm playing on WASHINGTON.   Is it too early to start talking about a "must win" for 1st year Redskins coach Jay Gruden?  Starting 0-2 against the AFC South is I'm sure not the way he envisioned his tenure beginning, so a win over Jacksonville is something I'd certainly call a "must."  

Washington opened the season by losing 17-6 at Houston (Remember, I took the Texans).  While Robert Griffin III and the offense continue to not impress, the one positive takeaway I had for the team was a defense that held Texans stud running back Arian Foster to an average of just 3.8 yards per carry.  The Redskins did finish the game with the edge in total yards, 372-316.  

Jacksonville meanwhile was a painful beat for their backers as an early 17-0 lead turned into a 34-17 loss and those who took them plus the double digits went from feeling they had a potential outright winner on their hands to a losing ticket altogether.

I can see how given all the buzz underdogs created in Week 1 (went 11-5 ATS overall) that those same people might want to come back with the Jaguars again this week.  But I'd tell those folks to beware.  This is still not a very good team and their shortcoming became apparent as they fell apart down the stretch last week.

The offense didn't really do anything after taking that 17-0 lead.  Toby Gerhart was given a pretty sweet deal to be the lead running back here, but gaining only 42 yards on 18 carries is not a positive sign.  Chad Henne is still the quarterback, by the way.   Defensively, this team lacks a serious pass rush.  That's got to be music to the ears of RG3 after facing Houston last week.

At the end of the day, Gruden can't lose his 1st home game or he risks losing the fanbase.  Look for Washington to win this one by at least a touchdown.  10* personal favorite.

I'm playing on UNLV.  It's been a pretty rough start to the season so far for these Rebels.  I went against them in their first game as they lost a laugher at Arizona, 58-13 as big underdogs.  Last week, though a win, was hardly any more impressive as they beat a lowly FCS squad, Northern Colorado, by only a 13-12 final margin.

Though that kind of win isn't going to impress anyone, it should be mentioned that UNLV did turn the ball over four times, obviously making it harder on themselves.  One positive is that they did run the ball for 211 yards.

They are back to catching a big number this week as they host Northern Illinois, who is off a win over Northwestern, which was one of just a series of black eyes for the Big 10 last week.  But despite beating a team from the Big 10 for a second straight year, I don't believe there's reason to think that this Huskies team will be as strong as the last couple of seasons.

Sure NIU has won 16 consecutive road games.  But they were held scoreless in the first half last week by a Northwestern defense that likely isn't very good.  This is also the second of what will be three straight road games for the team.  This is the sandwich game as they'll play Arkansas next week, again a foe from a bigger conference.  I can see them looking past UNLV here.  

Last year when Northern Illinois was better and had Jordan Lynch at quarterback, they went out West once during the regular season and failed to cover an even larger number against a poor Idaho team.  Ironically, they had just beaten Iowa the game previous, so it's a similar letdown situation this week.

NIU was actually 0-2 ATS on the West Coast last year, also losing its bowl game to Utah State by a score of 21-14.   10* best bet.

I'm playing on SOUTH CAROLINA.  Who would have guessed that this would be the line for this all-important SEC East matchup just two weeks ago?   But with the Gamecocks off to a lethargic start that includes that high-profile, embarrassing loss to Texas A&M in the opener and then a close call last week vs. East Carolina, they are now a decided underdog against Georgia.  The Bulldogs have played just one game and looked impressive against Clemson.

I was on Georgia there, laying the points.  Though it ended up being a relatively easy cover, it was a three-point game going into the fourth quarter.  They will not have the benefit of playing in Athens in this game.

Last year it was Georgia that came into this matchup in somewhat of dire straits, off a LOSS to Clemson the week prior.  Now that they are off a win AND a bye week, it's kind of easy to see why they'd be favored, especially with South Carolina struggling.  But I think it's too many points.  Before the season started, South Carolina absolutely would have been favored here.

Remember that South Carolina came into the season owning the nation's longest home win streak at 18 games.  A&M caught them off guard.  I don't think Georgia will.  

Georgia had lost to South Carolina three straight times before winning last year.  They have not won in Columbia since '08, scoring a total of only 13 points in two losses since.

The Gamecocks' defense has taken it on the chin in the first two games, but the pass-happy attacks of A&M and East Carolina may very well have simply been bad matchups for their secondary.  Georgia is a run-first team that I see them matching up better against.

Speaking of running the ball, South Carolina will have to get Mike Davis going.  He has just 116 yards rushing in the first two games.  He went for 149 last year against Georgia.  He was not healthy in the A&M game and the team falling behind early didn't help his production.  Last week, he did run for 101 yards against East Carolina. This week, I'll call for a big game from him and South Carolina.  10* SEC best of the best.

I'm playing on WASHINGTON.  Chris Petersen is perhaps finding out that life in the Pac 12 isn't all that it's cracked up to be.   His Huskies have struggled to a 2-0 start, beating Hawaii and Eastern Washington by a combined 8 points.  But I'll give them a bit of a pass as playing out on the Island can be tough as can the week after.  

If there's one conference you want to be playing right now, it's the Big 10.  The once proud league got beat up badly last week with a number of high profile losses.  Who would have guessed that Illinois would be among the few left at 2-0?  But the Illini have certainly had a couple of close calls.  In Week 1, they actually trailed Youngstown State (a FCS team) 9-7 entering the fourth quarter.  Last week saw them neck and neck with Western Kentucky, again trailing at home as favorites entering the final 15 minutes.

Oddsmakers are predicting another easy win for the Pac 12 over the Big 10 this week.  This is hardly Oregon-Michigan State in terms of overall levels of talent, but might the discrepancy between the two teams be the same?  

Washington beat Illinois last year by 10 points in Chicago, a game they never trailed.  Though it got close in the end, the Huskies led by as many as three touchdowns.   They also rolled up 600-plus yards total offense, nearly double that of the Illini.  

Taking their act on the road this year is probably not going to end well for Illinois.  They have lost eight of nine away games the last two years for coach Tim Beckman.  They are also 1-8 against the spread.  The last time they traveled West was two years ago against Arizona State and predictably they lost badly 45-14 (as only 4-point dogs?)

Meanwhile, Washington has a pretty safe bet in Seattle, going 15-6 ATS its last 21.  10* personal favorite.

I'm playing on IOWA.   On a Saturday that saw the Big 10 pretty much embarrass itself nationally, Iowa came awfully close to putting itself at the top of the list.  They trailed Ball State with a minute to go, at home, before scoring a touchdown to go ahead for good 17-13.   After not being that impressive either in the first game against Northern Iowa, there's some real "soul searching" going on right now in Iowa City leading up to the big in-state rivalry game with Iowa State.

Fortunately for the Hawkeyes, ISU is more down than they are.  The Cyclones opened their season by getting blown out by North Dakota State, the second year in a row the Bison opened their season with a win over a Big 12 opponent.  Then last week saw ISU come close, but ultimately fall short against Kansas State in a 32-28 loss.  

Though Iowa State left town with the cash last week and the last four matchups with Iowa have all been decided by six points or less, I'm still going to lay the points with the favorite this year. Iowa should be better while little was expected from the contingent from Ames.

Iowa's goal this season is a Big 10 championship and with a favorable schedule and the conference being down, they should be a player.  Their four top players on offense all returned.  After throwing 2 or more touchdown passes in seven games last year, QB Rudock had a career-high in yards last week with 322.  This offensive line, thought to be one of the best in the Big 10, should be better.  

I'll point out that the Hawkeyes missed three field goals last week against Ball State.  That was part of the reason that the game was close despite Iowa having a 27-13 edge in first downs and a 455-219 edge in yards.   The defense did not allow a touchdown in the game as the only time Ball State found the end zone came on an early fumble return.  10* best of the best.

I'm playing on BALTIMORE.   Obviously, this game is going to take a back seat to the Ray Rice storyline.  But I feel in a must-win spot, the Ravens are somewhat being undervalued here.  They nearly came back to beat Cincinnati last week while Pittsburgh almost blew it against Cleveland.   I can't see Baltimore, traditionally a very strong home team, opening its season with two straight division losses at M&T Bank Stadium.  

There were some trends last week that really supported a play on the Ravens.  Before losing outright to the Bengals to open the season, the team was 9-0 straight up and 8-1 against the spread as a home favorite of three points or less under John Harbaugh.  Week 1 marked their first home loss in the first four weeks of the season since Harbaugh's been the coach here.  Just last year, they were 6-2 SU at home.  The fact that they lost last week doesn't make those trends any less true; there's just a loss in there now.

Incredibly, the past five meetings between these teams have all been decided by three points or less.  That makes a case for the dog in this situation, especially since the Ravens only won 22-20 over the Steelers Thanksgiving night at home last year.  (PIttsburgh left with the cash as three-point underdogs after missing a potential game-tying 2-pt conversion.)

But the Steelers were also on the verge of not covering that game obviously, before the late TD.  They were on the wrong end of a backdoor cover last week, blowing a 27-3 lead at home to the Browns and needing a last second field goal just to pull out the straight up win.

With the Ray Rice situation hopefully behind them, perhaps Baltimore pulls together in this one? It's a game they have to have and in the past we've seen teams pull together amidst similar distractions.

Perhaps Joe Flacco's numbers would have looked a lot better last week had his receivers not dropped six passes.  Also, the Ravens defense did allow just one touchdown, the late bomb to AJ Green.   Pittsburgh's defense looked a lot worse against a Cleveland offense that few have an affinity for.   10* main event.

I'm playing on SAN DIEGO.  Getting the "hook" (half point) here is obviously pretty nice. But I wouldn't be surprised if we didn't end up needing it at all as I think the Chargers have an excellent shot at taking this game outright.

Arizona is coming off a 10-win season.  But few are predicting a repeat finish this season playing in the tough NFC West.  The Cardinals defense carried them last year, but three of their starting players from the front seven are gone (Dansby, Dockett, Washington).  That's going to spell trouble against a Chargers offense that by most measures only ranked behind Denver in terms of being the best in the league in 2013.  

San Diego's defense was its Achilles heel last year, but that group actually improved as the season went along, thanks to a pass rush.  They brought in some new cornerbacks in the offseason, one in the draft (Verrett) and one in free agency (Flowers), and I like those moves.

But when discussing the Chargers, you have to talk QB Philip Rivers.  He completed almost 70% of his passes last season, a number which the coaching staff predicted before the season and was laughed at for.  The new coaching staff did wonders for him and he ended up with almost 4500 yards passing and 32 touchdown passes.  

Even if tight end Antonio Gates can't go tonight, Rivers won't be lacking for weapons.  Receiver Keenan Allen had great rookie year and the Chargers have another TE in waiting in LaDarius Green.  

I am far more worried about Arizona's injury situation. Running back Andre Ellington was supposed to have a breakout year, but has been limited in practice and will be a gametime decision.  Also, what if punter Dave Zastudil can't go?  The team doesn't have another punter on the roster!

The Cardinals are 0-4 ATS their last four appearances on Monday Night Football.  10* best bet.

I'm playing on HOUSTON.   Two teams looking to rebound from very disappointing campaigns meet in the first week of the season. With Houston at home and available below the key number of three, I've decided to lay the points.  

In fact, according to record these teams should have drafted 1-2 back in April.  But because of the Robert Griffin III trade, the Redskins lost their right to the #2 overall choice.  Houston being able to add Jadeveon Clowney while Washington really added no one of consequence is an obvious and automatic advantage in the Texans favor.

We have two rookie head coaches making their debuts in this one as well.  Both have been head coaches before; Houston's Bill O'Brien in college and Washington's Jay Gruden in the Arena League.  Both were also offensive coordinators previously in the NFL.   Opening at home, I give the slight edge to O'Brien.  

With Clowney joining JJ Watt, I give the Texans a significant edge defensively in this matchup.  Linebacker Brian Cushing also returns from an injury-riddled campaign.   

While Houston has questions at quarterback (Ryan Fitzpatrick?), who knows if RG3 will ever be able to stay healthy for Washington?  After the disastrous end to the Mike Shanahan era in D.C, things can probably only get better, but Griffin is back to square one.  

Trends aren't necessarily as useful when you have new head coaches.  But for what it's worth, the Redskins did fail to cover five of their last six road games last year.  There is the fact that Houston lost its last 14 games last season.  So O'Brien and the new coaching staff will be desperate for a win.  They'll get it and the cover.  10* personal favorite.

I'm playing on TEXAS.  I'm well aware that Longhorns QB David Ash is going to miss this game.  But by now the team should be used to playing without him.  Also, with the way the defense played for Charlie Strong in the opener, the impact of Ash's absence won't be as great.

I know it was "only" North Texas, but the Mean Green have a veteran offensive line and it was dominated by the Texas front four.  They forced two interceptions on the first seven pass attempts they faced and brought constant pressure throughout the game.  They allowed only eight first downs and 94 total yards!  That's what you call a dominating performance.

Remember that Strong's defenses at Louisville were very good.  Just last year he presided over a unit that ranked #1 against the run in the entire country.  That will come in handy facing a BYU offense that averaged 5.5 yards per carry in last week's 35-10 win over Connecticut.

Lest we forget the revenge angle that's in play.  The Longhorns got embarrassed last year out in Provo, losing 40-21.  They actually came into that game as seven-point favorites.  That loss signaled the end of the Mack Brown era.   As noted above, the defense BYU will run into here is going to be much tougher.  

Ash played last year against BYU and obviously wasn't much a difference maker.   As I said before, they are used to being without him as he was lost for the year in game #3 (week after BYU) last season.  The 'Horns responded by winning seven of their final nine regular season games.  

Look for the defense to carry Texas to victory in this game as we're getting good value and Ash won't be missed as much as you think.   10* revenge GOM

I'm playing on SOUTH CAROLINA.   Obviously, you couldn't have drawn up a worse start for Steve Spurrier and South Carolina as they got hammered by Texas A&M in their opening game, 52-28, at home.   They obviously weren't ready for A&M quarterback Kenny Hill.  None of us were.  

This week's opponent fortunately won't be nearly as challenging and this looks like a bounce back spot for the Old Ball Coach and his team.  The opponent is East Carolina, a team that just two years ago the Gamecocks clobbered on this field by a score of 48-10.  They easily covered the three touchdown spread in that one.  

The line for this matchup isn't nearly as high because of what happened last week.  Unfortunately, some of the value is now gone because the number has been bet up, but that's still okay.  I expect South Carolina to roll in this one.

East Carolina is a team that like Texas A&M will look look to pass the ball quite a bit.  Last week, it really didn't matter what the Pirates' offensive gameplan was because they were obviously going to defeat NC Central and they did by a score of 52-7.  But I wouldn't count on Spurrier's defense being as bad as it was last Thursday.

What I would count on is South Carolina bouncing back.  Only once in the previous three seasons have they lost back to back games.  That was in 2012 when they played at LSU and Florida in consecutive weeks.  Don't forget that coming into the year, this was the team with nation's longest home winning streak.

Laying two scores seems like a lot if you watched the Gamecocks last week, but considering the mood the coaching staff is likely to be in, plus how we all viewed this team before the A&M game, they're certainly up to the challenge.  10* personal favorite. 

I'm playing on TULANE.   Going against Tulane provided me with my first win of this college football season.  I have to say that it was a fortunate one though.  

Playing at Tulsa and getting anywhere from 3.5 (where line opened) to 6.5 (where it closed), the Green Wave came out and took a 21-7 lead on the road.  At that point, I was sweating pretty badly.  But not only did Tulsa come back and win, but they prevailed by seven points in double overtime!  A real bad beat if you were a Tulane bettor though.

This week sees the Green Wave taking double digits at home against Georgia Tech.  The Yellow Jackets opened their season with a fairly uninspired 38-19 win over Wofford.  That was at home too.   Not sure if I'd want to be caught laying double digits on the road with this relatively inexperienced GT team this early in the season, so I'll go the other way.

The Yellow Jackets were a double digit road favorite only once all of last season.  They pushed at Virginia, winning 35-25.  They went 0-3-1 ATS their final four road games in 2013.

They are also 0-4-1 ATS their last five games following a SU win, showing that they can't maintain success typically.  Since Paul Johnson's first two seasons when they went 5-0 ATS as road chalk, the Jackets are just 6-8-2 ATS in that role.   

Tulane is both 5-0 ATS off an ATS loss and 4-0 ATS its last four home games.  The Tulsa team they played last week figures to be improved this year.  I can't say the same about Georgia Tech.  

The Green Wave had over 500 yards of total offense last week.  I like seeing that.  They've also had two additional days to prepare for this game.  10* best bet.

I'm playing on LOUISVILLE.  These teams just met in the Russell Athletic Bowl at the end of last season.  Louisville dominated in a 36-9 rout.  Though they won't have Teddy Bridgewater (NFL) or DeVante Parker (injured) for the 2014 opener, they do have Bobby Petrino back on the sidelines and as a result I don't expect the Cardinals to skip a beat.  Look for them to win big in their first ever ACC home game.

Miami will be starting a true freshman at quarterback themselves, so both teams are dealing with new starters at the position.  At least Will Gardner has some previous experience for Louisville.   

Petrino won 41 games in his four-year previous stint at Louisville. Since then, his career has been marred in controversy.  He famously quit the Atlanta Falcons to become the coach at Arkansas, but then was caught with a female student after he crashed his motorcycle.  He resurfaced at Western Kentucky last year where he went 8-4 straight up.  Obviously, he's still a very good coach.

Every year we hear how Miami "is back."  Every year this never really takes place.   Last year's team lost four games.  This year's returns fewer starters and plays a tougher schedule.  This is a tough spot having to open their season on the road with Brad Kaaya making his first career start.

Miami's top offensive weapon is running back Duke Johnson, who is coming back from a serious ankle injury that cost him the second half of last season.  Louisville shockingly led the nation in rushing yards allowed last season.

With this being a national TV game at home, Petrino and the new coaching staff are absolutely going to place a massive emphasis on winning here.  They will with room to spare. 10* main event. 

I'm playing on UTAH STATE.   Tennessee owns the unique distinction of being the ONLY team in the country not to return a single starter along either the offensive or defensive line. This is a dangerous Utah State team they are laying points to and I think it's too many.

When looking at Utah State this year, QB Chuckie Keeton is the name to remember.  Considered to be one of the more irreplaceable players in all of CFB, Keeton was lost for the year at the midpoint of last season.  The Aggies still made the Mountain West Championship Game and there gave Fresno State all they could handle.

Keeton is back this year.  Something you may not know is that at the time of the ACL injury he was second in the entire country in TD passes with 18.  He makes Utah State infinitely better.

The Aggies won't be intimidated by the environment of Neyland Stadium either.  Three years ago with Keeton making his first career start they went into Auburn and nearly won as 23-point underdogs.  That Auburn team was coming off a National Championship.  This Tennessee team certainly is not.

Utah State also brings in a quality defense.  Last year saw them rank 2nd in the country, giving up just 2.8 yards per rush.

It's pretty incredible to see how far Tennessee has fallen down the SEC pecking order.  They've had four consecutive losing seasons.  It's going to be tough avoiding a fifth as they face one of the nation's most difficult schedules.  

The SEC vs. the Mountain West is what's helped to inflate this line.  But Tennessee is one of the SEC's worst teams and Utah State is one of the MWC's best.  Take the points in this one.  10* GOM

I'm playing on OHIO.  Let's get right into the revenge angle, shall we? Ohio was Kent's final opponent last year.  This is a game Ohio has been waiting for all offseason as they were hammered 44-18 at home by a Kent team that finished only 4-8.  That's one of those head scratchers when you look back at the previous season's results.  I expect the Bobcats to gain a measure of revenge coming out of the gate.

Last year's game saw Ohio fall into a huge hole early as Kent State scored two defensive touchdowns in the opening nine minutes.  It was pretty much over from there.  You'd have to believe that something similar won't happen again.

This is actually a double revenge situation for Ohio as they lost here 28-6 in 2012.  But that was a ranked Golden Flashes team that was the program's best since the 70's.  This KSU team loses perhaps its best players on both sides of the ball from last season, RB Dri Archer and DT Roosevelt Nix.

Ohio also loses a ton of talent, especially on offense, but does have eight starters back on defense.  They were the better team overall last year and should be again this year.

Taking the points in this MAC East rivalry has traditionally been the way to go.  The underdog has taken the game outright in half of the past six matchups. Usually that has been Kent State getting points.  That's not the case this year, however.  I can't see the Bobcats failing to cover a 6th straight time against their division rivals.

Kent was 0-4-1 ATS at home last year.  10* revenge game of the month.

I'm playing on GEORGIA. Two big things have me pointing towards Georgia in this matchup. One is revenge. Two is they should be much improved while Clemson is likely to go in the other direction. I'm not concerned about laying the points either as the Bulldogs have lost only one game "between the Hedges" the last two years.

Georgia is off an 8-5 season where many things went wrong, namely an injury to starting quarterback Aaron Murray. Hutson Mason had to step in as his replacement and he certainly performed admirably. He led the team from 20 points back to defeat Georgia Tech in the final regular season game and then threw for 320 yards against Nebraska in the bowl game. Those performances bode well for this season.

There were also a number of close losses for Georgia last season, most notably the one against Auburn with the ridiculous deflection on the Hail Mary. They also lost by four at Vanderbilt and by three at Clemson. This will be an improved team this year.

That three-point loss to Clemson could have gone either way. The Bulldogs actually had the edge in total yards and did lead for most of the second quarter. Getting the rematch at home is a big deal, especially in a season opener.

Clemson loses a number of its top players at the skill positions, most notably WR Sammy Watkins. But also gone is their all-time leading passer Tajh Boyd, who had 5 touchdowns and 312 total yards in last year's game. I'm not sure how the Tigers will replace that.

Don't be surprised if Georgia RB Todd Gurley is the difference in this one. Last year, he ran for 154 yards against Clemson - on only 12 carries. He is perhaps the best running back in the entire country. 10* personal favorite.

I'm playing on CALIFORNIA.  This line has been bouncing around since it opened.  Many other bettors quickly joined me on the dog as Cal went from +12 to +10.  There's since been some buyback on the chalk.    Getting double digits, I feel the value is on California.

This is a cross-country trip for the Bears, who hosted Northwestern in the 2013 opener and lost 44-30.  That set the tone for a terrible first season under Sonny Dykes where they went 1-11 with no wins over FBS teams.   But I think there's reasons to be a little more optimistic with this year's Cal team.

They bring 15 starters back, nine of them on offense. As a freshman, QB Jared Goff set the passing record (for freshman) at the university.  It's also unlikely that the team will finish -15 in turnover margin again as they did last season.  Basically, what I'm saying is Cal can only go up.

Northwestern is also coming off a terribly disappointing season.  They were more competitive than California was, but no team (perhaps in the nation) had worse luck at the end of games.   They too are almost guaranteed of improving on 2013's win total.  But I'm still not sure I like the Wildcats in the chalk role.  They failed to cover four of five times last season laying points in Evanston.

Last year's game was a bit closer than the final score indicates.  It was tied early in the 4th quarter and Cal was able to cut the lead to 7 points with just under five minutes to go.  They also had to overcome two interceptions that were returned for touchdowns.  That's basically a guaranteed loss right there and ended up being the difference in the final score.

Northwestern is a team not known for winning games by big margins. I prefer to be on them as a dog, quite honestly.   There is also the issue of RB Venric Mark, who was to be suspended for the first two games anyway, transferring out of the program.  Grab the points.  10* best bet.