Sports Picks & Predictions

Cleveland has covered four straight and they are 7-3 ATS on the season. This team is still not getting any respect from the oddsmakers, and they are playing great team basketball right now and staying off the public betting radar at the same time. The Knicks are off to a slow start. They have lost two of three and have covered in only one of their last four games. Their defense isn’t playing anywhere near as good as they did last season. We expect a close game here. The Cavs defense has been much better than the Knicks thus far.

The Thunder just beat the Lakers last week in OKC. Revenge is an overrated angle in NBA handicapping, and for sure the Lakers are trying to gel as a team and work on their issues rather than get revenge against the big bad Thunder. While OKC isn’t a good team, they have covered in three of their last four games, and they are playing beyond the oddsmakers expectations. The Lakers are always overvalued by the oddsmakers and they are 2-6 ATS on the season, and they will likely be one of the worst ATS teams in the NBA as they often are.

Philly is shorthanded tonight with some key players injured or ill, not to mention the Simmons situation, which continues to be a distraction. They are also coming in on a back-to-back and playing their third game in four nights while the Pistons had the night off on Wednesday. Detroit has a great chance to win this outright. They are coming off two blowout losses, so there will be some urgency here. These teams played last week and the Pistons hung tough most of the game on the road, earned the cover, and should play better here at home.

1-Unit Play #520 Take Sacramento -5 over New Orleans (10 p.m. EST, Wednesday Nov 3)

These teams played recently and the Kings won on the road. Enough time has passed to not make this a revenge situation and we see Sacramento playing well here in front of the home crowd. They had a real tough road trip recently, and this is a good spot for them to get on the right track and get their first home win of the season against an overmatched opponent. 

3-Unit Play #501 Take Portland -4.5 over Cleveland (7 p.m. EST, Wednesday Nov 3)

Portland hasn’t had a great start to the season and they are winless on the road, but this is a good spot for them to change that. They have had a very tough schedule to start the season. This is by far their easiest game of the season so far, and we think this line is more than fair. This is Cleveland’s first game home after a long road trip, and those first games back can be tricky for the home team. We see Portland winning by 7+ here. 

2-Unit Play #503 Take Boston -6.5 over Orlando (7 p.m. EST, Wednesday Nov 3)

Boston has had a very tough schedule and they have had some OT games and they are better than their record might indicate. They are coming off an embarrassing loss to the Bulls where they were in command most of the game. We think this is a good spot for them to bounce back and get on the winning track. Orlando is a bad team and they have covered only two games despite some generous lines from the oddsmakers. 

These teams met on Sunday, in the same building, and the Rockets lost by 10. Normally the oddsmakers would make the odds less attractive for the losing team in a revenge spot like this, but this is the Lakers we are talking about, and they always get shaded by the oddsmakers. The Rockets should bring their best effort tonight against a familiar foe, and we think they can keep this game close.

The Bucks have had a slow start to the season. They are 3-4 and have lost three straight. This is a get right game for them against the sorry Pistons, and the line is right with them laying a fair number on the road. Milwaukee is 11-2-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings, and they normally dominate the Pistons. Detroit is working a lot of things out with their rebuild right now, and Milwaukee should dominate here and hold the Pistons to a real low score.

There is no way the Clippers should be laying double digits to any team in the NBA right now. This team has looked all out of sorts to start the season, and Paul George has been pretty much the only positive on this team thus far. Could this be a get right game for the home team? Maybe. We just don’t see a blowout here and think the Clippers would be happy with a 6-8 point win.

Just love the way the Hornets are playing this season and this team is 5-2 ATS and coming off a home blowout of Portland. Sometimes it all boils down to confidence in the NBA, and the Hornets are playing with a lot of it right now. The Hornets have the No. 1 offense at this point in the NBA, and the Cavs have one of the worst. We don’t see their defense slowing down the Charlotte attack, and this spread seems short to us.

Just think that this is too many points for the Lakers to be laying over anyone at this point of the season. They have covered only two times this season, and one of those was an OT cover as they were giving points in San Antonio and barely covered in OT. Their only double digit win was last time out against Cleveland, where they won by 12 at home. They will get Houston’s best shot tonight, and Houston is 11-5 ATS in their last 16 visits to Staples Center.

Sacramento have been road warriors this season at 3-0 ATS and SU. In fact, stretching back to last season they are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 road games. The Mavs have been overrated by the oddsmakers and have covered only one game thus far this season. They are far from midseason form and are coming off an uninspired effort vs. Denver where they lost by 30+. Sacramento has a long history of success in this series as they are 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings in Dallas and 21-6-1 ATS in the last 28 meetings overall.

Both teams played last night, but the Pacers are at home here and they have an easier B2B in our opinion. This is also a revenge spot for the home team as they were run out of the building on Wednesday. Toronto has been getting by on defense, but they didn’t play well in that regard on Friday and we don’t expect a better effort here on a back-to-back as energy will be in short supply.

We think that this sets up as a nice revenge spot for Boston. These teams played Wednesday, and the Celtics suffered a nine-point loss at home. We think revenge is an overrated handicapping aspect for the NBA, but it does come into play when the teams recently played each other. And that is the case here. And even better for Boston, they have had two says off while the Wizards played a back-to-back on Thursday, so this is their third game in four nights.

We like to back a good team after a bad (embarrassing) loss, and this is the case tonight for the Clippers, who played one of their worst games with the current core of players. This team has gotten off to a slow start, but they are better than this and they should give maximum effort tonight after a blowout vs. the Cavs. The Clippers normally bounce back well and they are 5-0 ATS after an ATS loss.

Charlotte is one of the best surprises of the new season, and this team certainly looks like a playoff team this season. They are 4-1 ATS on the year and they should be 5-0 ATS but they went to OT with Boston as an underdog and lost in the extra frame. The Hornets have some major offensive firepower this season and they stand at No. 1 in the league offensively. We see this one as another close game and we think the underdog has a chance for the outright win.

Even though their records don’t show it, the Spurs have played as well as the Mavs to open the season. We are seeing progress already from San Antonio this season. They have had a very tough schedule to start off but they have been competitive, and we expect them to be competitive tonight in this regional rivalry. The Mavs wins have come against Houston and Toronto, so we don’t think they should be laying this many points this soon. The Mavs haven’t covered in their last five home games.

1-Unit Play #548 Take LA Clippers -8 over Cleveland (10:30 p.m. EST, Wednesday Oct 27)

This Clippers team has been inconsistent to start off with but we see more games like the blowout against Portland than the rout vs. Memphis in their future. They are on a bit of high alert after losing their first two games, and this season it is all about the regular season and getting a good seed with the hopes of Kawhi returning at some point for a playoff run. They should be able to get a double-digit win against an overmatched opponent that is fat and happy after two consecutive wins. 

2-Unit Play #540 Take Oklahoma City +6 over LA Lakers (8 p.m. EST, Wednesday Oct 27)

It’s early in the season so back-to-backs normally don’t matter that much. It shouldn’t be much of an issue tonight for OKC, who is young and is at home for both ends of the B2B. For the Lakers, however, this team is old. They are already one of the worst ATS teams in the NBA every season as the oddsmakers shade their lines on a regular basis. But this team is also old and they aren’t built for a rugged schedule. They played OT last night and this will be their third game in four nights. And the Thunder will be gunning for them as every team does every time they play the Lakers. 

4-Unit Play #533 Take Indiana -1 over Toronto (7:30 p.m. EST, Wednesday Oct 27)

We love the Pacers with this short line on Wednesday. Some books even have the Pacers getting a point. The Pacers are 1-3 but they have had a real tough schedule to start off the season. They have looked much better at 1-3 than the Raptors at 1-3. Toronto caught Boston on an off night, but otherwise they have looked horrible and their offense is completely inept to start the season, averaging only round 100 PPG. We had this line at Pacers -4.5, so we love the value here tonight. 

2-Unit Play #538 Take Boston -4.5 over Washington (7:30 p.m. EST, Wednesday Oct 27)

After a slow start to the season, the Celtics have won and covered their last two games. This team enters the season underrated because of some poor results last season, especially at the betting window, but this team is very talented on the court and they have been one of the best betting teams for years. The Wizards have had a light schedule thus far, but we don’t think they are as good as they were last season. We think this line is short and there is value in the favorite. 

We liked what we saw from the Clippers in their season opener, a loss at GSW. But they played well and had a chance to win at the end. We think this is a probable Top 4 seed in the West even without Kawhi. This is a very talented team. And they are a bit underrated right now. They don’t want to start off the season 0-2 and they are solidly the better team in this matchup, so we expect them to take care of business in the home opener tonight.

We always state that revenge is an overrated handicapping factor in the NBA. However, it does come into play when the teams have recently played each other, and that is the case here as these teams played Wednesday in their season opener, a six-point Pistons win. Detroit hung in there all game and barely covered, and we think this will be a close game again. This is the Pistons second game of the season, while the Bulls come in on a back-to-back.

Spoiler alert! We will be betting Boston a lot this season. This team has been one of the most dependable betting teams in the NBA for many years before taking a step back last season in what was a very strange season for them. But they reshuffled the administration decks and we expect a much stronger effort from them this season. Toronto really looked bad in their first game and they managed only 83 points against Washington. They face a much stronger defense tonight.

The Warriors were very impressive on Opening Night as they beat the Lakers handily on the road, and now they face the other NBA title contender from the city of Los Angeles, and this time in their home opener. The Clippers have had their number lately, but we expect this one to go the other way. Kawhi Leonard is out, of course, until March at the earliest. So they will have to make due without him, and it might take some time for this team to get on the same page. Their depth will take a hit tonight as Batum and Ibaka are out tonight, as well as some role players. This game is a divisional and regional rivalry, and the crowd should be pumped tonight. We just see the Warriors winning this one comfortably as we see them being really good this year and they have a more stable team right now while LAC is a work in progress with rotations and roster and such.

We see the Bulls as being much improved this season, and the Pistons are still a major work in progress. Chicago is now on a different tier in the Eastern Conference and they are a playoff team in our eyes. We think this opening line is short as we had this one handicapped at 7.5, so getting some value on the other side of the NBA key number of 7 shows us the oddsmakers are a bit behind on this team. We see the Bulls getting a comfortable win tonight.

Much has been made about Kyrie Irving and his vaccine status. But this Nets team is probably still the best in the East without him as long as they stay healthy. They should be extra motivated in this one because of the revenge factor from the playoffs last season and also because they will see the Bucks getting their rings and that will provide extra incentive that the Bucks won’t have on the court. We think the wrong team is favored here.

10 Unit Play. Take #511 Phoenix Suns over Milwaukee Bucks (9:05p.m., Tuesday, July 19 ABC) Just do not believe Phoenix will go this entire series without winning (or at least covering) one road game. Phoenix could not stop Milwaukee at all during the second and third quarters on Saturday and still had the ball with a chance to win it late in that game. Phoenix is 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games as a road underdog. Milwaukee is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games played on Tuesday. Despite losing the last three games, the Sunday are 8-3 ATS in the last 11 games between Phoenix and Milwaukee.

10 Unit Play. Take #510 Phoenix Suns over Milwaukee Bucks (9:10p.m., Saturday, July 17 ABC) Homecourt has been the play in all 4 games thus far and look for that to continue on Saturday night in the desert. Role players tend to play better at home and expect the Suns to bounce back in a big way on Saturday. Phoenix gave away the game on Wednesday and I see them jumping out early and holding the lead tonight. Milwaukee is 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games as an underdog. Phoenix is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games against Milwaukee.

3 Unit Play. Take #507 Phoenix over Milwaukee (9p.m., Wednesday, July 14 ABC) The Suns had an off-shooting night and game 3 quickly got out of hand. But expect them to bounce back in a big way especially Devon Booker, who sat the entire fourth quarter of game 3. The Suns have won Game 4 in each of the 3 previous rounds, and I feel they will take this game down to the wire with a good chance to win straight-up. Phoenix is 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games following an ATS loss in their previous game. Milwaukee is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 Wednesday games.

10 Unit Play. Take #505 Phoenix Suns over Milwaukee Bucks (8:05p.m., Sunday, July 11 ABC) We have used the Suns in both games thus far and won easily. Things will be different in Milwaukee, but I just do not feel the Bucks should be favored by this many points. Milwaukee is still struggling from the arc, and you just cannot win games in this day and age without strong three-point shooting. Phoenix is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games. The Suns are also 5-0 ATS in the last 5 games against the Bucks.

10 Unit Play. Take #504 Phoenix Suns over Milwaukee Bucks (9:05p.m., Thursday, July 8 ESPN) The Suns dominated Game 1 of the NBA Finals and one never got the impression in that game that Milwaukee was going to cover the spread let alone win the game. The Bucks just have not been shooting it well from the arc on a consistent basis and for them to beat Phoenix they must make shots from the three-point line. Milwaukee is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games against Phoenix in the Valley of the Sun. Phoenix is 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games overall.

This is a strange NBA Finals for sure. Milwaukee belongs here, but not sure about the Suns. Phoenix was a team that we thought would flame out in the postseason after a brilliant regular season. They were lacking playoff experience. Teams need to take their lumps with some postseason heartbreak to eventually get to this point. But here we are. The Suns were benefited by a bunch of injuries to key players in the Western Conference Playoffs. They had one of the easier paths to the championship we can remember. But they did earn their postseason experience. They have gotten here by being the healthiest team in the playoffs. They gained a lot of confidence in the postseason, and we think that will be on display here.

We have some major injuries on both sides here but the Bucks have the more complete roster, and the more experienced one. We think they will take the Next Man Up strategy and run with it here to a comfortable win. Even if Young plays for the Hawks, we just don’t see him being effective as he will be rushed back too soon. We have seen it time and time again where they rush a player back and he hinders the team more than he helps. Regardless, we think the Bucks will circle the wagons here and take the win and move one step closer to the Finals.

We think this line is too big, bottom line. The Bucks have always disappointed in the postseason with the current core. We don’t think they should be this big of a favorite. The Hawks are playing their best basketball of this season here in the playoffs, and it sure looks like this team is built for the postseason. They were one of the most impressive teams down the stretch of the regular season, and they haven’t missed a beat here when the games have meant more. We expect a close game here and all the pressure is on the home team.

The Clippers looked exhausted for Game 1 and they still had a chance to cover on the last possession. They had a super quick turnaround from their Game 7 against Utah until Game 1 at Phoenix. Now they have had a little more rest, and this is basically almost a must win for them tonight as they don’t want to go down 2-0 AGAIN in a series and have that hole to climb out of. We think they will do a better job of containing Booker and that this will be a close game where the underdog has a chance for the outright win.

The Suns had too much time off here. We think that, and the fact that Chris Paul is out for this game with Covid, has thwarted the Suns momentum. The Clippers have all the momentum here and are coming off one of the best second-half performances in playoff history. This team is really clicking on all cylinders, and they have shown they can play at an elite level even with Kawhi out of the lineup. Plus, they have some hope for Kawhi to be back at some point as he was seen at Game 6 against Utah without a brace and walking without a limp. That has led some to speculate that he could be back at some point in this series. These Clippers are more battle tested than the Suns in this postseason as Phoenix had a very easy path with the injured Lakers and the hobbled Nuggets. The Clippers had a tougher path and they have been playing better with each passing game after the first couple games in Dallas. They are getting contributions from throughout the roster, and Paul George has stepped up into the Top Dog role with Kawhi out. We just see the Suns having some problems getting into the flow of the game without Paul and with a week off from their last game. The Clippers won and covered in two of three meetings this season, and longer term they have covered in 14 of the last 19 meetings. We think they have a great chance to win outright here.

Just think home court makes all the difference here and the stars will shine on Saturday in this elimination Game 7. The NBA is all about the stars, and the Nets will have two on the court and the Bucks with one. And with Brooklyn being at home we think the crowd will drive them to a win here.

We have been pretty heavy on the Hawks in this series with solid results, but we think it’s time to go the other way here. This looks like a seven-game series to us. And we think the Sixers will take care of business tonight. We expect them to lock down on defense, and we don’t see them blowing a big lead like they did in Game 5. Even experienced teams evolve, and the Sixers learned a big lesson last time out as they took their foot off the gas after accumulating a big lead. Won’t happen again as the Sixers win this one comfortably.  

It was announced this AM that Kawhi Leonard is out indefinitely with an ankle injury. This is a major blow to the Clippers as they had seized all the momentum in this series and were looking in good shape to possibly steal a rare road win in Utah tonight. But we think they still have a chance. Paul George has broken out of his slump, and if he plays hero ball tonight, he can definitely have the Clips in a position to win this one. LA has its deepest team in franchise history, and they have experience playing without Kawhi. Just don’t see the Clips getting blown out here.

The Hawks were one of the best teams in the NBA down the stretch, and they are being underrated by the oddsmakers once again here. Not many expected them to be in this series, but here we are with things tied up and this is now a three-game series and the Hawks have a real chance to make the conference finals. Philly always seems to disappoint in the postseason, and we think the Hawks will give them all they can handle tonight.

Great momentum for Milwaukee heading into Game 5 here with the series tied up. The Nets will likely be without two of their Big 3, and that is a problem with the way the Bucks have played the last two games of this series. They have all the momentum here, and the Nets have to figure out something quickly if they expect to win this one tonight. We don’t see it happening, and we think the Bucks go for the jugular this evening. Yes, the Nets have experience with playing without members of the Big 3 as they have done all season. And they have some role players that have the ability to step up. But we just don’t see where the points are going to come from for the Nets here tonight. They are really struggling offensively and have failed to reach the century mark in the last two games. The Bucks have the capability to score here, and we just don’t see the Nets being able to match that. Milwaukee has a strong betting history here in Brooklyn as they are 16-5-1 ATS in the last 22 meetings here. This Bucks team gets a mulligan from us for last season in the Bubble as they had some off-court issues going on, and a win tonight and putting the Nets on the verge of elimination would go a long way to put that failure in the rearview mirror.

We loved what we saw from the Clippers in Game 3, and we think that positive momentum will carry over here in Game 4. The Clippers have been in this situation before in a must-win game, and they have had success in this situation already in the playoffs. In Game 3 the stars for LA did what they were supposed to do, and the role players stepped up big time. Mitchell for Utah is banged up for this game. He might not be able to perform at his best. Utah benefitted from some great shooting in Games 1 and 2. They have cooled off, however, and that kind of shooting is unsustainable likely throughout the series. Also, the Clippers have been great in the favorite role as they are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as a favorite. Utah hasn’t done great as an underdog as they are 0-5 ATS in their last five in this situation. This has the look of a series that could possibly go the distance, and we see the Clippers evening things up tonight with a comfortable win.

If Denver was going to make a big stand in this series, Game 3 was the place to do it. But they didn’t. At all. They got blown out. Again. Now the Nuggets are toast. And they know it. It’s virtually impossible to come back from a 3-0 deficit in the NBA Playoffs. And Phoenix is playing some of their best basketball of the season right now, and that’s saying a lot since they had a great regular season. But not only are they playing great, but they match up extremely well with Denver and this series looks like a total mismatch. Denver showed a lot of heart in their postseason comebacks last season, but this is a different season, and they just matched up with the wrong team in the second round.

The Bucks haven’t really played a good game in this series yet they are still in it, especially with a win here on Sunday. If they lose, they are on the brink of elimination with the series headed back to Brooklyn. We think they will go all out here and could possibly play their best game of the series. All the games in this series have gone under the posted number, and Game 3 went under by a lot as the total reached only 169. This game will probably be higher scoring with two of the best offenses in the league, but we think the oddsmakers should have made a much larger adjustment on the total.

We expect a close, low-scoring game here. Both teams need to bring their A Game defensively in what is the most important game in the series. The Clippers are done if they lose this one. The Jazz don’t want the Clippers to get back in this series and they saw what happened in Dallas when LA went down 2-0 in that series. The Clippers aren’t playing with a lot of confidence right now. PG can’t find his shot. They have to get it done with defense. But we think this is too many points as we think this will be a close game. We think the Clippers could squeak by in this one and then have a much better performance in Game 4 once the confidence is back.

Denver looks totally outclassed in this series. Phoenix looks like they have barely broken a sweat and they have rolled in the first two games. This one looks like it could very likely be a sweep. We were unsure of the Suns in this postseason because of lack of experience, but Chris Paul has been playing lights out and this team seems dialed in and is playing great team basketball. We think they go for the jugular tonight and essentially put this series out of reach with a win and a 3-0 lead. We had the Suns as 3-point favorites here, and there is great value in the much better team getting points here tonight. We see the Suns putting up a big offensive number tonight, and the Nuggets won’t be able to keep up.

The Hawks have homecourt advantage now in this series and it’s time to go to work in Game 3 and protect that advantage. There aren’t many teams playing as well as the Hawks down the stretch of the regular season and the start of the postseason, and they have been beating the oddsmakers number on a regular basis. We had them as a small favorite here and expect them to win a close game here at home. Philly hasn’t covered in six tries here in Atlanta, and this team always finds a way to disappoint in the postseason.

The Nuggets were blown out in Game 1. But they have done a pretty good job of bouncing back from a bad loss in these playoffs and we expect a much more competitive game in Game 2. The Nuggets have covered in seven of the last 10 meetings in this arena and 14 of the last 20 meetings overall. We just don’t trust Phoenix that much in this postseason and think the floor will fall out from under them at some point. Denver will draw on their playoff experience tonight.

It’s rust vs. momentum here. We will go with momentum tonight. The Jazz didn’t play for almost a week while the Clippers closed out Dallas in Game 7 on Sunday. But LA didn’t look tired, and they are playing some excellent basketball. When this team is playing well, they could be the most talented team in the NBA, and we like them getting points tonight in what we feel is a coin flip game as to who wins. The long break has killed the Utah momentum while the Clippers have fresh momentum. We think the Clips will lock down on the defensive end here and that the Jazz may start the game a bit rusty.

This Atlanta team is on a 12-2 run and we feel they are being disrespected with this number. This team has quietly been one of the best teams in the playoffs at 5-1 both SU and ATS. They are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games. This team has all the momentum and we think this game will be competitive no matter who wins or loses. We had this line handicapped at 3, so we think there is quite a bit of value and the Sixers look like a very public play tonight.

We wanted to wait to see what went down in Game 1 before we made a move on the side in this series, and this one turned out exactly as we wanted to go with the Bucks in Game 2. Brooklyn won Game 1 and that gives the Bucks even more motivation here, and James Harden went down with an injury, which increases the Bucks chances to pull even in this series. The Bucks played a pretty lousy game in  Game 1. This team doesn’t often have two bad games in a row. They are a more stable team than the Nets, who threw together a super team on the fly. We just don’t see the same chemistry for Brooklyn, and that is crucial in such a pivotal playoff game. We expect the Bucks to even this series up tonight with a much improved effort compared to Game 1.

The NBA playoffs is all about stars and although the Mavs have one of the best in the business, the Clippers have two difference-makers on the court tonight. The road team has won every game in this series, and we think that trend will continue tonight. There hasn’t been much intrigue in the postseason thus far and you know the NBA wants a Game 7, so the Clippers might get the benefit of the doubt on some calls tonight. Regardless, we think the Clippers will step up with their excellent defense and do everything they can to slow down Doncic and make the rest of the team beat them.

The Lakers were absolutely humiliated in their last game. With a proud team like LA, that isn’t going to cut it. We expect a spirited performance tonight from the home team. AD might be out here or seriously limited. But they still have LeBron. And they still have one of the best defenses in the NBA. We expect them to play D like their life depends on it tonight, and their playoff life basically does. They have shown they can win games on the defensive side, and we expect that to happen tonight. We just can’t get behind the Suns too much in this postseason because the lack of experience.

Embiid is likely out here and the Wizards have a lot of momentum after a very nice win in Game 4. We think that momentum will carry over here. While Doc Rivers has a championship pedigree, he hasn’t done much recently, and he is starting to become more known for letting lesser teams stick around in playoff series. Washington has nothing to lose here and all the pressure is on Philly, and we think this will be a close game.

LeBron is one of the greatest of all time but he is getting older and can no longer hold the weight of the entire team on his back. That’s why Anthony Davis has been such a good compliment to him. But this team looked lost against the Suns once Davis went out, and it looks like Chris Paul is getting over his injury as he played great last time out. The Lakers are always the darlings of the oddsmakers and bettors, so you normally get an extra point or two when betting against them, and we think that’s the case here as we had this line at 7.5.

This looks like a 7-game series to us, and it’s Denver’s turn tonight. They had an ugly loss last time out, but they have had extra time off and they should come back raring to go on their home court tonight. Denver will ramp up the defensive intensity tonight with the extra energy provided by extra rest, and the Blazers have been inconsistent on defense and we think this one could be a lopsided matchup.

Just think this is too many points. The Nets have looked great for the most part in this series. But this is the most points Boston has gotten as an underdog all season. Brooklyn has been inconsistent when laying big points and they were one of the worst bets in the league when laying five or more this season. The Celtics are a very proud team with a lot of tradition, and while they probably won’t win this game we think they will go down fighting and keep this one within double digits.

We think the Grizzlies have a great chance to win this one and even the series up. It should at least be a close game. Memphis has nothing to lose and they are playing with house money right now. All the pressure is on Utah here. Last game the Jazz got off to a hot start and outscored the Grizzlies 34-22 in the first quarter. The Grizzlies pretty much played even with them the rest of the way after that slow start. Of course they won Game 1 and they haven’t embarrassed themselves at any point in this series. Even though they lost by 10 last time out, they have covered their last four at home after losing by double digits. They know this is their last best chance to stay in this series, and we expect to see a spirited effort tonight. Plus, the refs should dish out some home cooking, especially since there are a lack of games coming up as many of the series in the East have been lopsided.

Luka Doncic is questionable for this game. We have no doubt he will play. His listing on the injury report is probably mind games by Dallas. But we also do think he is ailing a bit and will be well under 100 percent in this game. But regardless, we think the Clippers have turned the tide here. If they win here then they are once again heavy favorites in this series. Dallas has enjoyed some great performances in this series and hit a lot of lucky shots. But LA is a much stronger all around team and they showed they are motivated in Game 3 and we expect to see the same type of performance here.

Boston played great in Game 3. Tatum put the team on his back and scored 50 with a legendary effort. That’s doubtful to happen again, and the Nets should bounce back and comfortably win this one against an outmatched Boston squad. This Game 3 was typical of Boston all season as they will look like they are back on track and then fall on their faces. And it was typical of Brooklyn, a team that has been inconsistent. But we think that loss was a wake up call. And with the other top seeds in the East taking care of business quickly, there will be urgency for the Nets to make sure Boston doesn’t win another game and hang around as the competition will get much tougher in the coming rounds.

Kudos to Memphis for winning Game 1. They caught Utah off guard and they got a great win. But Utah showed in Game 2 why they are the top seed as they dropped 141 points in a blowout. Sometimes good teams need a kick in the butt to get going, and it looks like that loss motivated Utah in a big way. That positive momentum should continue here. And Memphis would not even be a playoff team under the normal playoff format. This is a team on the way up but not there yet, while Utah is a true championship contender. And we think they get the job done again tonight.

We like to envision how a series will play out beforehand and bet accordingly, and we see this series going a long way or maybe even to Game 7 as we think these teams are pretty evenly matched. Portland played well last game but Denver played better, and we think the Blazers will be motivated here and even the series up. They had covered five in a row in this series before the last two losses. We think the early start time benefits the home team as they are in a more comfortable setting and should be able to handle the change better since these games have all been at night.

Miami put up a fight in Game 1 but the last two games have been blowouts. Will Miami play with some pride here? Maybe. But they are outmatched in this series and we expect the Bucks to finish this one off today. They have shown that last year was a fluke and that they are a legit contender. There is urgency to finish this one off and then wait for their next opponent. They are playing extremely well right now. We think this price is right and we expect a comfortable 7+-point win.

Better luck next year, Boston. The Celtics looked cooked and this series hasn’t even been competitive. Brooklyn is healthy and playing well, and Boston is banged up and looks lost. Everything the Nets have been working towards to be in good shape for the postseason seems to be coming to fruition, and they looked poised to end this series in a sweep. This should be another double-digit win. There is some urgency to end this series quickly because the competition for Brooklyn gets much more serious as they move on.

We think the Lakers will win this series but we are surprised how big this line is. The Lakers are one of the most public teams in the NBA and their lines are often inflated. That sure looks like the case tonight as we had this one handicapped at 4. So we see nice value here on the underdog in what should be a close game. The Lakers are 1-5 ATS in their last six after a cover, so they normally follow up a great game with an average one.

We were hyped on the Bucks entering the postseason but also kind of apprehensive because of the fact that they fell on their face last postseason. Was that the Bubble or is this team a postseason underperformer? Well, Game 2 gave us a lot of confidence, and we think there’s a great chance this series ends up as a sweep. This team has unfinished business, and they looked focused and determined thus far in this series and Miami is just outmatched.

We think these two teams are closer in ability than the oddsmakers do. The Wizards hung with Utah in Game 1. It was only the third quarter where the Sixers got a bit of separation, but the Wizards covered and we think they keep this one close once again on Wednesday. Washington was one of the best ATS teams in the second half of the season. They have covered six straight as a dog and are 7-0-1 ATS coming off a loss. They have also covered in four of the last five meetings.

The Clippers are probably feeling some pressure after losing Game 1 in an upset. This team has had the ability to bounce back well in the past, and they did this quite a bit in the postseason last year. A loss here would be a big problem for the organization and we just don’t see this team disappointing again as they are just on another tier talent wise than the Mavs and they have all the ingredients of a championship contender. We expect a low scoring game and possible double digit win by the home team.

The Suns won Game 1 but we are going to back the Lakers again here in Game 2 for all the same reasons, the most important being the Suns inexperience in the postseason. The Lakers aren’t sweating the Game 1 loss and they have been here before. We think there is a lot of pressure on the Suns here and we don’t see them handling the adversity when they have a great chance to go up 2-0. This one should be all LA.

For most of the later part of the season we have been planning to fade the Suns in the postseason. This team has all the look of a regular season wonder but a postseason failure. They don’t have a lot of postseason experience. Chris Paul has a career of postseason disappointments. This team needs some experience before they are a true title threat. Unfortunately, they drew the Lakers in the first round. The Lakers almost never have betting value because they are one of the most public teams in the NBA. There’s no doubt the Suns are scared here. The Lakers are healthy and streaking. We think this line is more than fair for Game 1 and we actually had the Lakers as a slight favorite, so we love the value here for Game 1.

The Wizards are no normal No. 8 seed. This team has been one of the stronger teams in the entire NBA down the stretch after a horrible start to the season. We think they can hang with Philly in this series. The Sixers have seen their share of disappointment in the postseason during The Process era. Even though they are the top seed, we would put the Bucks and even the Nets in front of them as a possible NBA Finals representative from the East. The Wizards are just playing very good team basketball right now, and we feel this is a very public line. It doesn’t hurt that Washington has covered in five of the last seven meetings.

Brooklyn is hot entering the postseason, but they won five straight against a pretty easy schedule. We just don’t think this team has what it takes to win a championship this season. This team has been a very bad bet most of the season, especially when laying big points. They have dealt with so many injuries and roster changes this season that this new team hasn’t had the chance to build chemistry. Boston has been a big disappointment this season. But this is a whole new season, and you can throw out the previous struggles. They played one of their best games in a long time in the play-in game against a Washington team that had been playing extremely well. We expect a competitive game here.

This is what the Clippers played the season for. All the load management, different rotations and team building was intended to be in a good place for the postseason. And we think the Clippers are in a very good place. This team didn’t care about regular season records. All they care about is winning a championship. And this team looks much better than the one we saw flame out of the playoffs last season. Paul George was having some mental issues last season in the bubble but he has been great this season, and this team is pretty much fully healthy here for Game 1. A healthy and motivated Clippers team is on a different level than this Mavs squad, and we think this line is short on Saturday.

Home teams have been dominant in this play in tournament, and we expect that trend to continue on Friday in the final play in game. The postseason is when stars shine the brightest, and although Ja Morant is a rising star, the Warriors have two established stars, including one of the best to ever play the game. We have seen time and time again that Steph Curry elevates his game to a different level when things matter the most, and the stakes couldn’t be higher here. He also makes everyone around him better when he brings his A Game, and we expect to see his best tonight. The Grizzlies wouldn’t have made the postseason in a normal format. This team is on the rise for sure, but we think they are a season away from being a true threat. With Curry, the Warriors can beat any team in the postseason if he elevates his game. Golden State has been a great bet lately as they are 6-0 ATS in their last six games. They are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games against Memphis when playing in the Bay Area. The Warriors scored a double digit win in this same arena against the Grizzlies on May 16. We think there is a great chance they score a comfortable win tonight by 7+ points.

This game features two of the most clutch players of all time facing off in an unprecedented game of two recent championship teams playing for the right to make the playoffs. But Steph Curry has been in fine form for a long time, while LeBron has been oft injured and is just getting back into rhythm for the postseason. This team just doesn’t have a lot of chemistry right now. They won five straight to end the regular season, but they covered only two of those games and they faces teams with questionable motivation while LA had all the motivation. But they will face an extremely motivated Golden State team tonight, and the Warriors are playing well and have covered six straight games. We had the Warriors as slight favorites here and we think it’s their game to lose.

Memphis won the last two meetings in blowout fashion. This seems like a team on the way up, while the Spurs seem to be on the way to irrelevance after being one of the best teams in the NBA for the last couple decades. Memphis has won five of six entering the play-in tourney. They are in good form. The playoffs are all about stars, and Ja Morant is the best player on the court here. The Grizzlies were one of the best ATS teams in the NBA this season, and we think they are undervalued here once again. They are a bit better on both sides of the ball and they have all the momentum heading into this matchup.

Just think this season is a wash for the Celtics. Jaylen Brown went down for the season. That seemed to take the air out of this Celtics team that looked off anyways. They have dealt with many injuries all season and never got to develop the necessary chemistry needed for a championship run. They lost five of six games to close out the season, and they didn’t reach the century mark on offense in three of those games. They are banged up heading into this game with key players nursing a variety of injuries. The Wizards got off to a slow start this season, but they have been playing as well as anyone in the NBA lately. They have been a covering machine as they have covered the majority of their games over the last month or so. They are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 road games. They are 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings. The last five meetings have all gone under the posted number.

We think this line is short. We were expecting a bigger number and think there’s decent value here tonight. The Hornets are backing into the play-in tournament and they have lost five straight. This play-in is new and we don’t have many trends to rely on, but this tournament seems built for teams that are in good form, and the Hornets don’t seem to be that team. The Pacers have been playing a lot better and have won three of five, and they have been a hot ATS team as they are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games. Indiana has all the postseason experience here and this is a new ballgame for the Hornets. We think the Pacers will win comfortably here.

Maybe both teams want the Blazers to win here? The Clippers sure looked like they tanked their last game to avoid the Lakers potentially in the first round or closer down the road. Now the Blazers are in that position. They have a chance to knock LA into the play in tourney. Denver doesn’t have any incentive to win and let the Lakers into the top 6 seeds. We see Portland going all out here and the Nuggets focusing on their first-round opponent, which could possibly be these Blazers, so why would they want to give too much away?

The Celtics have lost four straight. This team will not have many starters in the game today because of injuries or rest. This looks like a team that just wants to focus on the play in tourney next week. Minnesota got off to a real bad start to the season and a lot of that had to do with injuries. But this team has played a lot better down the stretch and has the look of a team that wants to end the season on a positive note. We don’t think Boston cares much about this game as they have their sights set on next week.

Despite a 20-50 record, the Pistons are 35-33-2 against the spread. They get too many points on a regular basis. This team is building something good, and the players play hard and play until the final buzzer. Do they get blown out from time to time? Sure. There is a lot of developing talent on this team. But they get an A most nights for hustle, and this has the look of a team that wants to finish the season on a positive note. This team is 26-16-1 ATS when getting five or more points this season, so they are a pretty safe bet as a big underdog. Denver has been overrated by the oddsmakers as they are 1-4 ATS in their last five. This team is pretty secure in their postseason positioning and we just think they have their eyes towards the playoffs now and they aren’t going all out here in Detroit. The Pistons have covered in five of seven meetings. We expect a close game here, and a SU win by the home team wouldn’t be shocking.

Portland is one of the main teams that need a win tonight. There are three teams trying to stay out of the play-in tournament – Portland, LA Lakers and Dallas – and right now the Blazers are on the right side of the standings. A win here would go a long way to securing their spot. They have been road warriors lately, covering in six of their last seven road games. The Suns are pretty secure in their playoff seeding and this game has no real importance to them compared to Portland. We think the road team will pull out all the stops to win this one.

We were really impressed by the Clippers last win over Toronto. This has the look of a team that is getting healthy at the right time and wants to build some momentum heading into the playoffs. Ibaka is the only main player that will be out tonight. The Clippers have had a real light schedule down the stretch, so they should have plenty of energy here. And they have covered in four of the last five meetings.

Boston has lost three straight, but that has been against much tougher competition then they will see tonight. This has all the signs of a Get Right game against the Cavs, and we think Boston will be primed for a big win. They probably can’t avoid the play-in tourney, but they can at least build some momentum for the postseason, and that is much needed right now. Cleveland is 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven home games despite some generous lines from the oddsmakers, and we think the road team has a great chance for a double digit win.

These teams played in Washington on Monday and the Hawks won by one point. It’s tough to beat the same team twice in a row, and we think the Wizards have a great chance to win this one. The points are an added bonus. Beal should play here. Washington has been playing as well as any team in the East since a slow start. They are one of the best ATS teams in the NBA this season. And we think they are getting too many points once again.

The Magic have suffered two 30+-point losses in their last three games. This team is so wracked with injuries they are fielding a G League-level team right now. And this team stunk before all the injuries. Those big losses were to Minnesota and Boston, one team that stinks and one that is not playing well. The Bucks are in on a back-to-back, and they suffered one of their worst losses of the season last night in San Antonio. They lost by 20+ in what was obviously an off game. We like to back a good team after an embarrassing loss like that as they normally give a lot better effort in their next game. Even on a B2B they should have enough energy to beat this Magic team without breaking too much of a sweat. The Magic haven’t covered in the last six games in this series, and we think they run into a buzzsaw tonight against a Bucks team that will want to remove the bad taste their loss from last night left them.

As bad as the Magic have been playing, the Wolves are not in a position of power to be laying more than seven on the road to anyone. This is the biggest favorite they have been all season. The Wolves have lost three straight and didn’t cover in any of those games. The Magic have won and covered in three of their last six games, so they aren’t playing that bad right now overall. There is more talent on the Wolves side for sure, but we think this is an inflated number.

Popovich has the Spurs playing well down the stretch. They haven’t had much to show for it in the W/L column as they lost two crucial games in OT. They are coming off a blowout loss vs. Utah and we always like to back a solid team after an embarrassing loss. The Spurs are barely clinging on to the No. 10 spot in the West and the last spot in the play-in tournament. Sacramento is still alive, but barely. Sacramento has seen some mild success lately. But we just don’t believe in this team in a must-win game against a more talented Spurs squad and one that is better coached.

Both teams are dealing with injuries but we think the Jazz are the better team and they have better weathered their injury status. We are very impressed with their last two games as they swept a desperate Spurs team that is fighting for their playoff lives. We expected this number to come out closer to 6, and with a lean to Utah at that number, so we are going with the value here tonight.

Boston is rested. They had the night off Thursday, and before their 36-point domination of Orlando last time out, they had two days off before that. The Bulls are coming in on a back-to-back. They won last night but had dropped four straight before that, so they aren’t in great form right now. The Bulls are the more desperate team. They are four games out of the last spot in the playoff play-in, with six games left. They are done. And they have been playing like it. They are here in the spot out of the playoffs because they aren’t a very good team. Boston has a lot to play for as they are on the bubble of the play in tourney, but they are currently No. 6. They control their own destiny to avoid the play in. And most importantly, they have been a great bet in this series as they are 4-1 ATS in their last five in Chicago and 12-3 ATS overall in the last 15 meetings. The Bulls got a rare win in this series last month, but we don’t see it happening twice in a row.

The Clippers have been one of the best ATS teams in the league all season and the Lakers one of the worst. The Clippers haven’t been covering lately but they are as healthy right now as they have been in a long time, and they face their biggest rival tonight. The Lakers don’t really think of this as a big rivalry for them, but the Clippers do. That’s why the Clippers are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. The Clippers didn’t play well last time out vs. the Raptors but still won. We think they were looking ahead to this game a bit. We expect their best performance tonight in what should have a playoff atmosphere. But the Clippers are healthy and the Lakers aren’t, with LeBron and several key players out tonight.

The Spurs lost to the Jazz on Monday here in Utah. They were down big in the first half but played much better in the second and kept the score respectable even though they missed the cover. But this game becomes a lot more important for San Antonio. They are two games in front of New Orleans for the last spot in the play in tourney. They need to get a win. They have lost four straight against a very tough schedule but they went to OT at Boston and vs Philly even though they couldn’t pull out the win in either of those games. The Jazz have covered in only two of their last six. They already beat the Spurs on Monday and they don’t have a lot of motivation for seeding as they seem locked into a Top 2 spot. Have to thing that Popovich, one of the best coaches in the history of the game, will have his team motivated here in this rematch. The Jazz have covered in only one of their last six home games, so they have been overrated by the oddsmakers and are missing some of their Top Guns again for this matchup.

The Wizards are the last team in for the play in tourney in the East so it’s imperative that they keep winning. They have been playing like a legit playoff team after a slow start to the season, and the oddsmakers continue to undervalue this squad. They have won seven of 10 so they are in good form. They have covered in 14 of their last 17 games, so they are not being lined correctly. The Bucks come in on a back-to-back and playing their third game in four nights. They just had a doubleheader against Brooklyn, a team they will likely cross paths with in the playoffs. They probably won’t take this game as seriously. And the Bucks haven’t been blowing teams out of the water lately. We think the Wizards will be hyped to compete here and expect them to cover.

The Clippers are the healthiest they have been in awhile, and their two stars are expected to play tonight. They have lost three straight and they are desperate for a win right now. They have had two nights off to regroup and should be ready here. As of right now they are set to play the Lakers in the first round. They won’t say it, but they don’t want it. They will probably do their best to move up in the seeding, and they don’t have many chances to do it left. We think they give their best effort tonight and win this one by double digits.

These teams played last night and the Warriors blew out the Pelicans. But it’s very hard to beat a team twice in two nights, especially on their home court. New Orleans is out of the playoff picture as things stand now. Every game is a playoff game for them if they wish to compete in the play-in tourney. Last night the Warriors jumped out to a big lead but New Orleans played with them all the rest of the game, and we expect a more complete performance from them tonight.

This is a battle of two Top 10 defenses and we expect a low-scoring game. But we think Denver will have the stronger motivation tonight when it comes to the ATS angle. These are possible first-round opponents in the postseason. The Lakers right now are trying to get AD and LeBron back into playing shape. All they care about is to be healthy and in a good headspace come playoffs. They don’t care much about this game. The Nuggets will want to prove something, we expect, and they should bring a lot of energy here. Denver is one of the hottest teams in the league right now and they are coming off a win against the Clippers that was very impressive.

Orlando won last time out and they have won two of three. We just think they are satisfied and the Pistons, losers of two straight, will be the more motivated team here, especially at home. Both of these teams are dealing with long injury lists. But the Magic don’t handle success well and they are 0-5 ATS in their last five after an ATS win. The Pistons are also 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. We think the home team will show some motivation here in an easily winnable game.  

The Celtics have had players in and out of the lineup all season, so it has been hard to get a read on this team. They should be pretty healthy tonight with the exception of Walker. We think this team is ready to make a move approaching the playoffs. We had this line at 6.5 with a lean to the Celtics at that number, and we think they are a bit undervalued tonight. We expect a comfortable 7+-point win.

The Nets have been a bad bet all season. But they seem to be coming together as we head towards the postseason. They have won and covered three straight. That includes wins over Boston and Phoenix, so they haven’t played creampuffs. The Pacers are banged up and they are coming off a home blowout to Portland. They face a big step up in competition here against one of the NBA title favorites. We think the Nets have a great chance for a double digit win.