Sports Picks & Predictions
NBA Archive | |||||||
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
03-23-16 | Jazz +2 v. Rockets | 89-87 | Win | 100 | 8 h 28 m | Show | |
The Jazz are a very strong play here as a road underdog. They have had two nights off while Houston comes in on a back-to-back after a loss at OKC last time out in a game they cared about a lot more than they do with this one on Wednesday night. They are also one of the worse teams in the NBA at back-to-backs as they are 7-10 straight up and 6-11 against the spread. Utah has been playing very well lately and has won five of their last six games. They have covered in all the wins. This team has gotten back to playing strong defense and they are playing better on the road, which has always been a big problem with this team. They have won three of their last five road games, and one of the losses was at GSW, where no one wins. They face a very beatable opponent tonight in a bad spot on a back-to-back and we expect them to earn another road win here. |
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03-23-16 | Bucks +11 v. Cavs | 104-113 | Win | 100 | 7 h 28 m | Show | |
The Bucks have a strong history here in this series as they have covered in five of the last seven meetings. Milwaukee has been playing very good defense lately and they have held their last six opponents to an average of 95 points per game. That bodes well for them getting big points tonight and also the under on an inflated total. Milwaukee has been playing great defense lately and the Cavs are No. 3 in scoring defense on the season and we think this will be a lower-scoring game and we expect the Bucks to be very competitive here as they seem to relish in playing the Cavs. They even won the first meeting this season in overtime in Milwaukee. Cleveland has played in a lot of high-scoring games lately and that is why this total is so high, but they have played many teams that don’t play defense or that like to run or both. But the Bucks have gone under in seven of their last nine games and this team is playing some sneaky good defense lately and we think they come to play tonight and hold the Cavs down from a big night of scoring which will put this one under the posted total as well as help the Bucks cover this double-digit spread. |
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03-21-16 | Bucks v. Pistons -7 | 91-92 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 34 m | Show | |
Detroit is in the midst of a long road trip here where they can get themselves back in the playoff picture in the East by racking up some wins. They need this game big time tonight and we think they get it against a Bucks team that is coming in to play a road game on a back-to-back and came out extremely flat in that game last night at home against the Jazz in a game they weren’t even competitive in. Now they have to go on the road and they take a step up in competition here. Detroit is a team we think is trending up right now and they are coming off a big win over Brooklyn and an impressive win over the Kings as well in which they should have covered except for a meaningless bucket by Sac on the last shot of the game. Detroit has been very good ATS at home at 20-11-2 on the season and they have won and covered the last two meetings in this series. |
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03-21-16 | Magic v. Celtics -8 | 96-107 | Win | 100 | 7 h 34 m | Show | |
Boston hasn’t been playing well but they have had a very tough schedule. They got back on track last time out however against Philly in a 15-point road win and sometimes all an NBA team needs is confidence in order to start playing better. They face another overmatched opponent tonight in Orlando, a team that has lost seven of its last nine games. Boston is very motivated for this game as they are in the thick of the playoff hunt and the Magic are just playing out the string. The Celtics have been good when laying big points as they are 12-6 ATS in their last 18 when laying six or more points and they have dominated this series in Boston with a 27-10-1 ATS mark in the last 38 meetings. |
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03-21-16 | Spurs v. Hornets +6.5 | 88-91 | Win | 100 | 6 h 5 m | Show | |
We think this is a bad spot for the Spurs as well as an inflated line. This is a letdown game after the Spurs won the marquee game thus far this season at home against Golden State on Saturday. The Hornets are quietly playing great basketball, having won 9 of 11 games overall, and this is their best chance to stop a 10-game losing streak against the Spurs – both with their best team and with the Spurs on letdown alert. The Hornets lost an embarrassing one last time out as they were beaten handily by the Nuggets at home. They will be anxious to get that loss in the rearview mirror and also to snap this streak against the Spurs. We aren’t saying they will, but we expect a very close game here and with the Spurs coming off this GSW game they won’t have the same fire as their opponent. This is a huge game for the Hornets and we think they will compete for the win here. |
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03-20-16 | Jazz v. Bucks -1 | Top | 94-85 | Loss | -107 | 6 h 19 m | Show |
These teams are pretty even except for the fact that the Bucks are really good at home (21-13) and the Jazz are really bad on the road (11-23).Milwaukee is quietly playing very well right now. They have won four of their last five games. Utah has won three of four, but their road victory in that stretch was over struggling Sacramento and they showed their true road colors last night in a loss to also-struggling Chicago. So Utah isn’t good on the road and they have to play a back-to-back here on the road in an earlier-than-normal start. And Milwaukee is well rested as they have had two nights off and have generally played a very light schedule lately. The Bucks can pretty much kiss their playoff hopes goodbye if they lose this game and we expect them to play strong at home in what is a bad spot for the visitors. |
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03-20-16 | Clippers -8 v. Pelicans | 105-109 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 20 m | Show | |
They Clippers were off for a couple nights after throttling Houston on the road and they came out very rusty last night against a hot-shooting Memphis team. They were run out of the building and now that makes this an even more important game. The Clippers have done very well after a loss as they are 9-3 ATS after getting beat. The Pelicans are a team on our fade list right now. This team is way out of the playoff hunt and they are dealing with a ton of injuries and they don’t have a lot of veteran leadership to keep this team together right now. And Anthony Davis is one of the injured as he is listed as out tonight. We think the Clippers will have a strong game in the paint and Chris Paul and co. will play with come intensity tonight after an embarrassing loss to the Grizzlies second team last night. |
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03-20-16 | Blazers v. Mavs | 120-132 | Win | 100 | 3 h 20 m | Show | |
Dallas has won and covered in three of the last four meetings in this series and we like them to do so today as well in this early Sunday start. Neither team has been playing well lately but both have had tough schedules. But Dallas does their best work at home and the Blazers just aren’t very good on the road. They are 15-22 on the road this season and they are 1-6 in their last seven away from home. Dallas has a tenuous hold on the No. 8 spot in the west and they need this game more than the Blazers do. They have covered nine of the last 12 meetings in this series and five of the last six at home. These teams have a couple nights off before they play each other again on Wednesday and we expect the home team to take care of business here as they know they can make up a lot of ground in the playoff hunt with a sweep but that makes this a must-win game. |
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03-19-16 | Warriors v. Spurs -3.5 | Top | 79-87 | Win | 100 | 8 h 44 m | Show |
Golden State is mortal on the road where they have lost six games this season. The Spurs are immortal at home where they are 34-0 this season. This is a major revenge spot for the Spurs after their beat down in the Bay Area in January. Revenge isn’t a big handicapping factor for us in the NBA but when it’s a team like the Spurs getting beat up like that you know they will have a chip on their shoulder. We are helped here in the fact that the Warriors have a back-to-back here. They used a lot of energy in their big win last night in Dallas and they are going to need everything they have here. And not only are the Warriors on a back-to-back but they have a couple key injuries as Bogut and Iguodala will both miss this game so they aren’t at full strength while the Spurs are completely healthy with a blank injury list. The Spurs have covered in five of the last seven meetings and we love their chances for a signature win tonight. |
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03-19-16 | Nuggets v. Hornets -9.5 | 101-93 | Loss | -109 | 5 h 15 m | Show | |
Love the way the Hornets have been playing lately, winning nine of their last 10 games, and this team is finally healthy and playing as a group. When healthy this team is a contender in the Eastern Conference, And they have been good for bettors, too, covering in seven of their last 10 games. The Nuggets are in the midst of an eastern swing, and this team has been progressively worse as the road trip has worn on. They have lost all three games so far but have failed to cover in the last two and got a beat down from Atlanta last time out. They have allowed at least 116 in all three of those road games. The Hornets offense is really clicking right now and we don’t think they will have any problems covering this large number and this team has covered in four of the last five meetings. |
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03-18-16 | Blazers -1.5 v. Pelicans | 117-112 | Win | 100 | 7 h 20 m | Show | |
The Blazers have cooled down a little. But when you look at their schedule they have played San Antonio, OKC and Golden State all on the road. Those are the three best teams in the Western Conference and all on a different tier than the Blazers. But now they get to face a team that is a couple notches below them and this for us is when baseball players have the weights on their bats in the on deck circle. The Spurs, Thunder and Warriors were the weights and have this team battle tested and things should seem easy for this Blazers team against New Orleans, especially on the road. Portland has won seven of the last eight meetings and they have covered in five of the last six. They match up well here and the Pelicans are a team on our fade list right now as this team doesn’t have a lot to play for and they have a lack of veteran leadership to inspire the players on the team. |
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03-18-16 | Kings v. Pistons -7 | 108-115 | Push | 0 | 7 h 50 m | Show | |
These two teams have much different motivations tonight as the Pistons are the odd man out in the Eastern Conference playoff hunt at No. 9 but in the second game of a nine-game homestand that can vault them into the playoffs. The Kings are just playing out the string of another down season with a lame-duck coach leading the team and inevitable change on the horizon. The Pistons are a solid team and we think this is a playoff team in the East. They lost last time out against Atlanta in a hard-fought game and this team really must step up tonight and beat this lesser opponent handily. We think they can do it. Detroit has won five of the last six meetings in this series and they have covered in seven of the last nine. All the motivation is in their corner and we actually thought this spread would be closer to double digits, especially since it looks like Rondo is out for Sac and Jackson is a go for the Pistons. |
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03-18-16 | Thunder -16 v. 76ers | 111-97 | Loss | -113 | 6 h 20 m | Show | |
The Thunder have been one of the worst ATS teams this season but as the playoff stretch drive of the regular season is here this team has been playing better and covering numbers. We don’t see them taking this game off as they try to separate themselves from the Clippers in the top half of the Western Conference bracket. OKC has covered five of their last six games and we think they take care of business as a big road favorite here. The Sixers haven’t had much success against any team not named “Brooklyn” lately. They are 14-19-1 ATS at home where they often get too much credit from the oddsmakers for a non-existent home-court advantage. They are just 4-12 ATS at home against teams with a winning record above .500. They come into this one on a back-to-back after another tough game Thursday against Washington. This team is just 5-9 ATS on the second half of a back-to-back and this will also be their third game in four nights. Jahlil Okafor is now out for the remainder of the season and he was the guy who sparked this team whenever it did play well. The Sixers are dealing with a host of other injuries to an already thin roster. Philly has been playing very poor defense lately and the Thunder can pick their score here and they won’t have any problems putting up enough points to cover this big number. |
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03-17-16 | Wizards -9.5 v. 76ers | Top | 99-94 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 26 m | Show |
The Sixers are always overvalued at home. This team is 13-19-1 at home this season. The oddsmakers give them too much credit for home-court advantage. At 6-27 at home the fans don’t have a lot to cheer about. So Philly is getting some extra credit from the oddsmakers for being at home here. The Wizards are also getting dinged for being on a back-to-back. We don’t think those two factors will matter and we expect a big game from the Wizards here. The dog days of the summer are over. The Wizards are a good team that has been a disappointment this season. They are currently in the 10th position in the playoff race in the Eastern Conference, a couple games back from the eight seed. They can’t overlook a game like this and take the night off like they have so many times this season. They need to win and win big here. Being the eight seed in the east is not a death sentence like in the west as the east is pretty wide open this season. But the Wizards have to make their playoff push now. And this team has been playing excellent basketball. They beat the Bulls by 21 last night and the Pistons by 43 on Monday. This team is healthy, unlike the Sixers who stink with a full roster but are really banged up now, and they are playing incredibly well on offense. That’s a bad sign for the Sixers, who have given up 256 points in their last two games. The Sixers don’t have much reason to play better than they have been tonight and the Wizards have every reason to win this one big. Oh yeah, and the Wiz Kids are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings and 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in Philly. |
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03-16-16 | Clippers +3 v. Rockets | Top | 122-106 | Win | 100 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
This is a big rivalry now after last year’s playoff series that saw the Rockets come back from 3-1 down in the series and down big late in Game 5 to come back and win it in Game 7. It has been tough going lately for the Clippers who have been blown out in three of their last four games. But those games were all against teams that were very strong in OKC, San Antonio and Cleveland. The Cavs game was an off game and the Spurs game was very close heading into the fourth quarter before the Spurs started hitting all their shots and the Clips went cold. But they face a step down in competition here and the Rockets aren’t as good as they have been in the past. This team has been a very poor betting team this season at 30-37 ATS. They are often overvalued here at home where they are 13-19 ATS, and we feel that is the case tonight. LA is 8-5 straight up on back-to-backs this season so we are not too worried about fatigue. They are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 after a loss so they normally bounce back strong. After two blowouts and facing a lesser opponent they will likely go all out tonight to get a win here. We actually have the Clippers as a slight favorite in this one and even if they do lose we just don’t see a blowout here tonight. So the spread could come into play if they don’t play as well as we expect them to. But we do think they will win this one straight up. The Rockets have not done well against teams that play well on the road and they are 0-5 ATS in their last five against teams with a winning road record. |
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03-16-16 | Thunder -4.5 v. Celtics | 130-109 | Win | 100 | 6 h 18 m | Show | |
Boston enters this one on a back-to-back after a real tough loss last night at Indiana. This team has lost three of their last four and they are on a downturn right now. OKC has covered four of five after being one of the worst ATS teams most of the season. But that they are starting to cover lines is an indication this team is rounding into playoff form. We think the Thunder will be ultra motivated here. When these teams met in November in OKC Boston blew the Thunder out 100-85. Russell Westbrook from the Thunder and Marcus Smart from the Celtics were jawing at each other all game and Smart went off for a big night and Westbrook commented in the media to indicate he was looking forward to playing them again. Sharp bettors moved this line a bit overnight and sapped some of the value out but we think the Thunder can win this by 7+. |
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03-15-16 | Clippers +9 v. Spurs | Top | 87-108 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 32 m | Show |
The Clippers match up well with the Spurs and they have won three of the last four meetings, including that blowout right after the all-star break. LA played one of their worst games of the season last time out at home vs. Cleveland, but they have been very good after a loss and they will be anxious to put that game behind them with a solid performance here tonight. This is just too many points and a very public line. The Clippers have a pretty bad rap and the public has lost confidence in them since Blake Griffin went down, but this team has been playing overall very well and they are competitive on a nightly basis save for a rare off game. The Clippers are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games after a loss. This is the most points the Clippers have gotten all season as a dog and we think there is very nice value on the underdog here. |
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03-15-16 | Celtics v. Pacers -2.5 | 98-103 | Win | 100 | 6 h 2 m | Show | |
Boston is not in perfect form right now as they have dropped three of their last four ATS while going 2-2 in those games. This has been one of the best ATS teams in the league for most of the season but the oddsmakers have made an adjustment on their lines and that has created value in spots to go against them. The Pacers stunk last time out against the Hawks and they will be anxious to put that effort behind them. Overall they have been playing very well and have won four of their last six and they have covered five of their last seven. One of those wins was against the Spurs so this team can beat any squad on any given night. They have won two of three against Boston this season, so we know they match up well here. Both teams have some key players banged up but most are questionable tonight and Jae Crowder will for sure be out for Boston and this guy is way underrated. The Pacers are very good at home while Boston is average on the road and we think the Pacers win comfortably here. |
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03-14-16 | Pelicans v. Warriors -15 | Top | 107-125 | Win | 100 | 10 h 31 m | Show |
Golden State has won big and covered in all of the last three meetings and tonight they face a broken and demoralized New Orleans team that has dropped three straight and seen This team is now closer to the bottom of the standings in the conference than the playoff hunt and we think we are going to see some more bad play down the stretch run of the season from this group. They are in way over their heads tonight. Anthony Davis is a great young player, but the key word is “young” and he just doesn’t have enough experience to put this team on his shoulders down the stretch and they don’t have a lot of leader types on this team so this is one to go against down the stretch. The Warriors are getting back to their dominating ways lately and have had a couple blowouts in recent games and we expect to see the best from this team tonight against a very familiar opponent. |
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03-14-16 | Mavs v. Hornets -6.5 | 107-96 | Loss | -102 | 6 h 1 m | Show | |
Just love the way the Hornets have been playing and this team has won seven straight. This team doesn’t get much attention but quietly they are playing as well as any team in the NBA right now. That’s a big reason they have covered all but one line in this current winning streak. On the other end of the spectrum the Mavs have lost five straight. This team is really struggling right now and they don’t have a lot of motivation to come in here and play better than they have against an out-of-conference opponent. The Hornets are one of the better home teams in the league at 25-9 while Dallas is well below average on the road. This Charlotte team has won 13 of 15 games overall and they are the best team right now that no one is talking about and that is why this team still has betting value and we feel like this line is a couple points short as well. |
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03-12-16 | Thunder +8.5 v. Spurs | 85-93 | Win | 100 | 7 h 8 m | Show | |
The Thunder are just getting way too many points here and all the value is with the underdog in this matchup. This is the most points given to the Thunder all season long and you just can’t give a team like this that many points. They lost to Minnesota on a last-second shot last night and this team will be desperate to get back on the right track. We think they lost that game because they were looking ahead to this game. The Thunder lost a couple to the Warriors the last couple weeks and they want to prove they belong with the best in the west so they should be very motivated tonight. The Spurs are a great team but they are not as good as Golden State and this team will probably lose a game at home at some point and when they do it is probably going to be against one of the other Top 4 teams in the west and the Thunder certainly fit the bill in that regard and we expect a very close game tonight. |
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03-12-16 | Pelicans v. Bucks -5.5 | Top | 92-103 | Win | 100 | 6 h 8 m | Show |
This is a real bad spot for the Pelicans tonight. Not only do they come in on a back-to back after a grueling overtime game last night against physical Memphis, but this will be their third game in four nights. On the other hand, the Bucks have had two nights off to rest and prepare for this game and we think they will come out and play a solid game here. This team has been good at home lately where they have won three of five. One of those losses was to OKC and one was a close one to Indiana. But they face a step down in competition here from those games and we think this is a real good spot for a rested team to do their best work tonight. The Pelicans are just 3-10 on back-to-backs this season and they do not play well in these situations and while both teams are banged up the Pelicans have a worse injury situation and the Bucks are flat out undervalued tonight. |
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03-12-16 | Pistons -10.5 v. 76ers | 125-111 | Win | 100 | 6 h 39 m | Show | |
Philly is coming into this one on a back-to-back after a rare win on Friday. This team is probably happy with itself right now for that win and they did their positive work for the next week+ last night. This is a team that does not give top effort every night and we expect a flat effort from them tonight. Detroit comes in on a back-to-back as well and this team lost a tough one in Charlotte last night but this Detroit team is very good and they will play hard tonight in a “get right” game in order to get back on track against a very beatable opponent. The Pistons have won three straight meetings in this series by double digits and we think the same happens here. Philly is especially bad ATS at home where the oddsmakers often give them too much credit but they don’t have a real good home-court advantage with many apathetic fans. |
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03-11-16 | Knicks v. Clippers -10 | Top | 94-101 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
The Clippers have been great at bouncing back from losses lately where they are 8-0 ATS in their last eight after a loss. They lost a bad one to OKC last time out, now they are back home against a way inferior opponent and we expect them to play well and win big here. The Clippers have dominated this series the last few years. They have won seven straight meetings by double digits and they have covered in all but one of those, where they missed the cover by just half a point. LA has played a pretty light schedule lately with no back-to-backs and they have a big rest advantage over the Knicks, who were off last night but were on a back-to-back Tuesday and Wednesday so this will be their third game in four nights. This team just hasn’t been playing well consistently and we think this is a real bad spot for them tonight. |
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03-11-16 | Wolves +12.5 v. Thunder | 99-96 | Win | 100 | 7 h 51 m | Show | |
The Timberwolves are amazingly 11-3 ATS this season on the road against above-.500 teams. They play their best basketball in this underdog role. They are 15-10 ATS when catching 16 or more points. They have also covered two of the last three meetings in this series. The Thunder are just not a good betting team this season. This team wins games but they don’t put teams away. They often play down to their level of competition like in this scenario tonight and they don’t seem to have that killer instinct that the Warriors and Spurs have to play hard at the end of games and close the opportunity for a back door cover. With the Wolves stellar record on the road against winning teams you always have to look at them when catching double digits and these young guys often give their best effort against marquee teams and we think that will be the case tonight. |
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03-11-16 | Rockets v. Celtics -5.5 | 102-98 | Loss | -103 | 6 h 22 m | Show | |
Boston has covered the last two meetings and they already blew the Rockets out in Houston by 16 in November. Boston continues to be one of the best ATS teams in the league while Houston is down on the other side of that list with a 28-36 ATS record on the season. We expect the home team to get the job done tonight. Houston is coming off two straight wins, but one was against the Sixers so that isn’t too impressive although they played very well against the Raptors. But this team just doesn’t have any consistency and they are now in the fourth game of a five-game road trip so the road blues are probably starting to kick in. The Celtics have been playing very well at home, where they have won 14 straight, and Houston just isn’t a great road team. |
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03-11-16 | Nets -2.5 v. 76ers | 89-95 | Loss | -103 | 6 h 52 m | Show | |
These are both bad teams, but Philly is a whole different level of bad than the Nets. And we think this line is too short tonight. The Sixers actually beat the Nets for one of their rare wins on the year in the last meeting about a month ago, but Philly had Jahlil Okafor in that one, and he is listed as doubtful tonight. He will probably be shut down for the season soon as the Sixers have no incentive to win games. He had 22 points and 17 rebounds in that last meeting. And the Sixers won by five. Without that kind of contribution they are going to have a tough time winning this one, and we think this line should have been closer to 5. Brooklyn has been pretty competitive lately. They have covered six of eight on this long road trip. They are 19-12 ATS on the road this season. We think they win comfortably tonight. |
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03-09-16 | Clippers v. Thunder -5 | 108-120 | Win | 100 | 8 h 26 m | Show | |
These teams played last week and the Clippers rallied from 20+ down to get the win. The Thunder had their rematch with Golden State on tap the next night and we think they were focusing too much on that game in the second half. That was just a bad spot for them and we were on the Clippers in that game, but we are going the other way tonight. OKC is the better team in this matchup, especially with Blake Griffin out of the lineup for the Clips. OKC and LAC are pretty close in the standings so the Thunder know they need this game bad and we think the cream will rise to the top here as the Thunder are well rested with two nights off and just one game played in the last five nights. |
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03-09-16 | Knicks +2 v. Suns | Top | 128-97 | Win | 100 | 8 h 5 m | Show |
The Suns are the worst team in basketball and no way they should be a favorite over anyone right now. In fact, this team is 4-9 ATS when laying four or fewer points this season. Yes, interim coach Earl Watson has this team playing hard and they pulled a couple upsets lately, but this team should suffer in the role of the favorite tonight. The Knicks aren’t very good but they are at least one tier up from the Suns. We had them as a slight favorite in this one, even on a back-to-back. New York is 8-6 ATS on back-to-backs this season so we don’t see the lack of rest as such a big deal. The Suns lost their two best players to injury and while this starting unit has some young talent, there is a lot less established talent than with the visitors tonight and the Knicks still have Carmelo Anthony, who is the best player by far on the court and a player that can dominate a team like the Suns. The wrong team is favored here. |
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03-08-16 | Wizards +5.5 v. Blazers | 109-116 | Loss | -103 | 8 h 26 m | Show | |
The oddsmakers have made a big adjustment on this Portland team once they started playing well and this team seems a lot better when underestimated. They have now dumped three straight games and covered in only four of their last eight. This team was on a tear for awhile and they have cooled off big time. And we think there is some very nice value with the underdog Wizards tonight. The Wizards have won four of their last six, even though those two losses have come in their last two. But those were two very tough games and one was a one-point loss to the Pacers. We thought this line should be closer to 3 as we think these teams are pretty even but the Blazers deserve to be a favorite because of the home court. But we expect a close game here and think the Wizards match up well here. |
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03-08-16 | Hawks v. Jazz -1.5 | Top | 91-84 | Loss | -106 | 7 h 26 m | Show |
Stock is down on Utah right now as they have lost five of six games. However, four of those games were on the road and one of the two home games was against the Spurs. This is one of the many NBA teams that is a different team at home than on the road. This team is very good at home and we think they bounce back here in what is a very winnable game. The Hawks have been playing well but they are in the fourth game of a five-game road trip and this trip has seemed to go a little too well for them so we think there is a chance they are due for a bad game. Utah already beat Atlanta on the road this season and they have covered in three of the last four meetings. This game is much more important for the Jazz who are just on the outside of the playoff picture and we think they score a big home win tonight. |
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03-07-16 | Magic v. Warriors -14.5 | Top | 113-119 | Loss | -101 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
The Warriors suffered a rare loss last night to the LA Lakers. This wasn’t a sign of anything wrong with this team or that they are weakened somehow. They simply had a bad game and some cold shooting. This is a long NBA season and all the best teams will have a game like that now and again. The Warriors make less of a habit of it than most. This is one of the most motivated and driven teams we have ever watched in the NBA and there is no doubt they will play a lot better here tonight against another very inferior opponent. Golden State is 11-4 ATS in back-to-backs and they are one of the best in the league in these situations so it doesn’t bother us in the least that they are playing a B-2-B here. In fact, with their stellar B-2-B results and the fact they suffered such a bad loss last night indicates they are due for a big bounce back here. These teams met a couple weeks ago in Orlando and the Warriors won by 16. They shot better than 60 percent from the field in that game and that is a bad sign for Orlando tonight after the Warriors were cold last night. We expect some very hot shooting here from the home team. Orlando is coming off a near 20-point loss to Phoenix last time out. That is probably the worst team in the NBA right now. This team has just not been playing well lately and their defense is horrible and we think GSW will be very motivated tonight after the bad one on Sunday. We will give the Warriors a mulligan and expect a huge bounce back effort from them tonight. |
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03-07-16 | Grizzlies +12.5 v. Cavs | 106-103 | Win | 100 | 7 h 44 m | Show | |
We think this line should have been closer to 8.5 or 9 and think there is some great value here on the underdog. The Cavs just haven’t been a good bet as a favorite and they are just 12-21 ATS when laying seven or more points. Memphis has been playing great basketball lately overall. This team did have two head-scratching losses to the Suns lately. But remove those two games and Memphis is 12-3 in their last 15 when not playing Phoenix, and two of those losses were in OT and one was to the Raptors on the road. The oddsmakers dinged this squad big time when Gasol went down with injury but their offense has been rolling and this squad always plays good defense. So we have an underrated team playing an overrated team with an inflated line and we think Memphis plays this one within double-digits tonight. |
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03-06-16 | 76ers +14.5 v. Heat | 98-103 | Win | 100 | 5 h 5 m | Show | |
Miami is just not the type of team you want to lay big points with. They are 3-6 ATS this season when laying more than seven, and one of those wins was against Phoenix two games ago when the Suns had three open looks at threes late in the game that would have sealed the cover and the Heat made a late three to win by 16 as 13.5-point favorites. Then another was last game where they played this same Philly team on Friday and covered by ½ point. But when two teams play home-and-home games like this the following game normally favors the losing team. It’s hard to blow a team out twice in such a short span of time, and the losing team will normally be able to make adjustments and play a stronger overall game. Even though the Sixers have some injuries now this is still a team made up of NBA players and they should put up a fight against a familiar opponent and we have a feeling the game will be even closer than the one Friday night. |
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03-06-16 | Blazers v. Pistons +1 | Top | 103-123 | Win | 100 | 5 h 6 m | Show |
Portland has been playing really well for the last month or so but since this team has been getting some buzz the odds have been overadjusted on some of their games, and we think that is the case here as we had this game handicapped at Detroit -3.5 and we would have leaned to the home team at that number. So we think there is a ton of value in this current line. This is the last game of a six-game road trip for Portland and they have lost the last two games, so you can tell they are ready to get home. Detroit has lost two straight as well but those were both on the road and one was to the Spurs. Before that they had won and covered four straight, including three double-digit wins (including one vs. Toronto) and also a eight-point road win at Cleveland. This Detroit team is very solid and even though they come in on a back-to-back they are 7-6 ATS in these situations this season so we don’t think it will be a problem. |
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03-06-16 | Mavs -3 v. Nuggets | 114-116 | Loss | -108 | 4 h 6 m | Show | |
Dallas has covered the last four meetings, and the fourth meeting was a push. We think they are on track for a comfortable win here on Sunday. Dallas has won four out of their last six games and they covered in all the wins. They are playing very well right now and are in much better form than Denver at the moment. Denver has lost six of their last eight both straight up and against the spread. They are missing Danilo Gallinari, and he is their best shooter and his loss really hurts this team. The Mavs are 12-6 ATS when laying small points (five points or less), so they normally do very well in these situations. They have also covered in seven of the last nine meetings in Denver. |
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03-05-16 | Hawks v. Clippers -5.5 | Top | 107-97 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
We love the way the Clippers have been playing lately and this team seems determined to make up for their slow start on the season. They just keep winning and covering lines, and the bookies have been slow to adjust their lines for this team. LA is well rested here as they have had two nights off and the Hawks come into this one on a back-to-back (6-9 ATS on back-to-backs). The Clippers have done their best work this season as a marginal favorite and they are 14-6 ATS as a favorite of less than six points. Most of those games are here at Staples Center against weaker opponents like is the case tonight. We thought this line should have been closer to 7.5 or 8.0, and we think there is some great value with the home team tonight as we think a rested Clippers team takes care of business comfortably in this one. |
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03-05-16 | Nets v. Wolves -5.5 | 118-132 | Win | 100 | 7 h 14 m | Show | |
Both teams play a back-to-back here but this will be much tougher for Brooklyn as they played an OT game in the high altitude of Denver and now have to travel on the road to take on a Minnesota team that has been playing well at home, covering in seven of their last 10 games here. Even though these teams have similar records the Timberwolves are a step above Brooklyn talent-wise, and the Nets are in the midst of a very long road trip and with this back-to-back they have to be feeling the pain of the trip here. Both teams have been atrocious on defense lately and the pace here should be swift. We think both teams will get their points but in the end we think the Timberwolves win this one by seven or more in a high-scoring affair. Minnesota has a very strong history in this series as they are 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings in Minnesota and 17-6 ATS in the last 23 meetings overall. |
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03-05-16 | Celtics v. Cavs -7.5 | 103-120 | Win | 100 | 6 h 14 m | Show | |
Boston is having a fine season and they have been a great bet, but we think they are in a tough spot against a much better Cavs team tonight. Cleveland has revenge in this one for a one-point loss here on this same court about a month ago. Cleveland led that one by 15 at one point and the Celtics rallied for the win. But Cleveland had won and covered the previous three meetings pretty comfortably. In fact, they have won five of the last six meetings and would have covered tonight’s line in every one of them. We think the Cavs match up favorably here and they should be very motivated tonight. Boston has done most of their good work lately at home but they have dropped three of four on the road and they failed to cover in all those losses. This price is more than fair for Cleveland and we expect a double-digit win. |
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03-04-16 | Wolves v. Bucks -5.5 | Top | 101-116 | Win | 100 | 7 h 57 m | Show |
The Timberwolves are trending heavily to the over lately. Ten of their last 12 games have gone over the posted total and a reason for that is that this team has given up any effort on defense. Six of their last nine games have seen the opponent score 110+, and we expect Milwaukee to have a big game on offense and they can basically pick their score tonight. The Bucks are in fine form offensively and recently put up 128 on Houston. They have also given up 100+ in six straight games on defense. We think points will come in bunches tonight and we think both teams get well over the century mark and we think this line is too low for the home team. We think Milwaukee will have a huge night on offense and the T-Wolves will make up the difference to get this one over the posted number. |
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03-03-16 | Thunder +7.5 v. Warriors | 106-121 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 48 m | Show | |
Not to take anything away from Golden State, who is having a season for the ages and is just keeps finding ways to get the job done on a nightly basis, but we think that the Thunder will come to compete here on Thursday and we expect this one to be a very close game. The Warriors are going to drop at least one game at home this season, and it will probably come from one of the top teams in the west. These teams met on Saturday in OKC and the Thunder played a great game but lost in the final seconds of OT on a Steph Curry miracle three. But they had led for most of the game up until that point and were up by as many as 14 at one point in the game. That sets up a major revenge spot for the visitors here. While we don’t normally use revenge as a major handicapping factor, we do think it comes into play in certain situations, and this is certainly one of those. That last game was less than a week ago so the wounds for OKC will still be fresh and they will have a major motivational edge here while this is just another big game for the Warriors, who get their best shot from opponents every night. And we really liked what we saw from OKC in that game even though they lost. They had a major edge in rebounding and points in the paint, and it was the sharpshooting from the Warriors, especially in the fourth quarter and OT, that did them in. But the losing team in these situations is able to make adjustments and we expect a hard-fought game from the visitors here, who are be getting a very nice underdog number. We expected the Thunder to lose last night in LA, and they blew a big lead. But we thought they would be looking ahead to this game and we think they come out very focused and determined tonight. |
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03-03-16 | Suns +14 v. Heat | Top | 92-108 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 44 m | Show |
Will take a shot with the Suns again here on Thursday night. Yes, Phoenix stinks. But the more they lose the bigger the odds get, and that creates value. The Heat are a strong defensive team. But they win a lot of low-scoring games. Hard to trust them to cover the big number here tonight. In fact, this team is just 1-6 ATS when laying seven or more points this season. The Heat have played down to their level of opposition a lot this season at home, and that is why they have had such a bad ATS mark against lousy teams here. The Suns are coming off a really bad effort last time in Charlotte and that loss was one of the worst of the season. But this is an NBA team and they have an interim coach in Earl Watson who will get a better effort out of his team tonight. Of course the Heat are without Chris Bosh right now and that hurts this team’s chances to cover the big number. We don’t think either team will do anything special on offense and expect a low-scoring game here, which makes the points with the underdog all the more valuable. |
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03-02-16 | Thunder v. Clippers -2 | Top | 98-103 | Win | 100 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
This is a big look-ahead spot for the Thunder, who play Golden State tomorrow on TNT. That game on Saturday was one of the best of the year and the Thunder lost it in heartbreaking fashion. They have to be licking their chops to get another chance in the Bay Area tomorrow and this game is probably an afterthought to them. The Clippers have been sneaky good lately. They just keep winning games and covering spreads while waiting for Blake Griffin to rejoin the team. They have played well in this series and have covered the last two meetings. This team is 9-2 ATS as a small favorite this season and they normally get the job done in these situations. The Thunder are one of the worst ATS teams this season and we think that this is another spot where they are being overrated. |
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03-02-16 | Lakers +7.5 v. Nuggets | 107-117 | Loss | -102 | 8 h 58 m | Show | |
We are getting a good line here because the Lakers are on a back-to-back and because they are the Lakers, a team the public doesn’t have much faith in after they have lost eight of their last nine games. But we liked them last night at home against Brooklyn and we like them again here in this spot. This is just too many points for a 23-37 team like Denver to be laying tonight. Denver not only stinks but they are really banged up right now. Gallinari is out here. Faried is questionable and we think he will be sidelined with lower back pain tonight. A couple other key players will likely suit up and play but maybe not at 100%. With the players on the court tonight the Nuggets aren’t a whole lot better than these Lakers. LA is 8-5 ATS on back-to-backs and this team is young and athletic and we don’t see fatigue being a big factor tonight. The Lakers won the last meeting here earlier in the season and we would not be surprised to see them compete for the win here tonight. |
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03-02-16 | Pacers -1.5 v. Bucks | 104-99 | Win | 100 | 7 h 59 m | Show | |
The Pacers have lost three straight. But when you look at who they played they lost a hard-fought game in Cleveland, lost to a surging Portland team that is beating everyone right now and they lost a heartbreaker by one to a very solid Charlotte team. This game tonight is a great chance for them to get back on track and we think they bring their A Game tonight, and a motivated Indiana team is much better than Milwaukee if both teams are playing their best. Because of these losses the Pacers are a bit underrated right now and the Bucks are coming off a win against Houston, so they are getting too much credit. We are not that impressed with the Houston win and Milwaukee has been a big disappointment this season. Indiana is a very solid defensive team and we think they will flex their muscles in that regard tonight and they have the better offense in this matchup, too. |
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03-02-16 | Jazz v. Raptors -5 | 94-104 | Win | 100 | 6 h 29 m | Show | |
These are two of the Top 5 defenses in the NBA for points allowed and you have to love a total in the 190s here in what looks to be a very low-scoring game. These teams met in Utah in November and the total reached only 182, and we think we could see that same type of game tonight. The Jazz have not played well on offense the last few games, averaging only around 86 per in their last three. This team does not play as well on the road as they do at home. Remember, they are only 9-19 on the road this season. We think both teams will struggle to score but we think Utah will really struggle and expect them to finish around 92 or fewer points. We see the Raptors, a much better overall team and a very good home team, winning comfortably in a low-scoring game. Toronto has covered in five straight meetings here and we see more of the same results on Wednesday. |
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03-01-16 | Suns +12.5 v. Hornets | Top | 92-126 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 3 m | Show |
This is way too many points for the Hornets to be laying tonight, even against a team like the Suns. Charlotte has lost two of three, so they are not in good form right now. This is the first home game for them after a long road trip, and that is always a trouble spot for big favorites. The Hornets have not been good as a big favorite this season as they are 3-6 ATS when laying five or more points. They are just 3-5 ATS at home against sub-.500 teams this season. The Suns should come into this game with a lot of confidence after knocking off Memphis at home last time out. They also played the Spurs and Warriors very tough recently and covered in both of those contests. They have had two nights off to prepare for this game so they should be primed to play their best. Phoenix has a very strong history in this series as they are 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings and 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Charlotte. They have won the last two meetings (and six of the last seven), including one this season in January in Phoenix by nine points. We feel the road team is in a nice position to succeed tonight and they will keep this one within double digits. |
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02-29-16 | Grizzlies -1 v. Nuggets | 103-96 | Win | 100 | 8 h 44 m | Show | |
Love the Grizzlies in this spot. The Nuggets were playing well for a bit but a bad team like this often can’t keep things going for too long. And now they have lost four of their last five. All those losses were in winnable games. Thankfully they won in LA against the Clippers in what was just an off game for the home team so that has kept this spread honest tonight. The Grizzlies had their off game last time out in a loss in Phoenix. They will be primed to not repeat that performance here. Media reports indicate this was a game the team is embarrassed about and we expect them to get back to the great play we have seen recently from this team. Before that game they had covered four of five. This team lost Gasol likely for the season and betting markets responded too harshly to that news as this is still a very strong team and they have the players to make up for the loss of Gasol and they still play a defensive-oriented game and physical style. Memphis has always done well in this kind of spot as a small dog or favorite and we expect them to get a comfortable win tonight. |
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02-29-16 | 76ers +13 v. Wizards | 108-116 | Win | 100 | 6 h 45 m | Show | |
These teams played a few nights ago in Philly and the Sixers hung pretty tough in that game and the biggest lead the Wizards had all game was 10 points. Both teams are on a back-to-back here so Washington does not have an advantage there. These teams also met earlier in the month and the Sixers kept the game within this spread threshold. The fact that these teams will have seen each other three times this month really bodes well for the underdog here, especially since the Wizards covered both meetings. Not only have the oddsmakers pumped up this line a bit larger than it should be, but the Sixers will be able to make adjustments and learn from what they did wrong last time. The comeback against Orlando last night came up a bit short but we think that momentum carries over here tonight. |
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02-28-16 | Heat v. Knicks | 98-81 | Win | 100 | 7 h 54 m | Show | |
Miami is underrated right now. Oddsmakers have overstated some of their injuries and this team has had some nice value lately. They are 3-2 since the all-star break with the losses coming against Golden State (in a very hard-fought game) and at Boston. They covered in four of those five games. They do come in on a back-to-back but they played a very early game on Saturday so they had more time to rest. They have the players to fill in for the injured guys and they play a strong defensive system that gives them a chance to compete every game. Miami has a strong history in this series and have covered in eight of the last nine meetings. They won each of those games that they covered. The Knicks have been overvalued at home where they are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games. We think the Heat defense will rise to the occasion with a big game tonight. |
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02-28-16 | 76ers +9.5 v. Magic | Top | 116-130 | Loss | -109 | 5 h 13 m | Show |
Just don’t think that this Orlando team should be laying this many points to anyone. There is value in the visiting Sixers tonight. Orlando just hasn’t been good in the favorite role this season and they are 1-6 ATS when laying five or more points. The Magic are just 6-19 since the new year and that is not the type of team you want to lay big chalk with, even against a team like Philly. But this is a very winnable road game for the Sixers. These teams played less than a week ago and the game was very close throughout. The Magic finally pulled away in the fourth quarter and won by nine (they outscored the Sixers by five in the fourth) but it was a close game throughout, and since these teams played so recently we think that gives the underdog a better chance since they will be able to make adjustments. |
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02-27-16 | Grizzlies -6.5 v. Suns | 106-111 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 22 m | Show | |
Memphis has covered in four of their last five games, and we think they are a bit undervalued here as well. Three of those covers came against the Lakers (twice) and the Nets, so this team has done what it takes to beat up on bad teams, winning those games by an average of nearly 15 points. Now they face a team possibly even worse than those clubs. Even though Gasol is out of the lineup now this team still plays strong defense and physical basketball. They have shown they can score on bad defensive teams (they averaged 120 in the two games against the Lakers and put up 109 against Brooklyn and Minnesota). Memphis has been playing extremely well lately and a loss at Toronto and a couple OT losses vs. Portland and Dallas are their only recent blemishes. They won’t slip up against this horrible Suns team. |
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02-27-16 | Warriors v. Thunder +3.5 | 121-118 | Win | 100 | 7 h 22 m | Show | |
Just have to take a flier on the Thunder here as we thought this line would be pickem so we have to take the points here as we think there is a very good chance that they could win this one tonight. Golden State has shown that aren’t immortal on the road. They were blown out by Portland on this road trip and they have covered in only two of four games. We think this is another inflated line. OKC and San Antonio are considered the two biggest threats to GSW, and this is their first road game against either team. This is probably the biggest game of the regular season for OKC and we really think they have a great chance to win here. Golden State has covered only one of the last seven meetings in OKC, and this is a very public line. Most times public bettors can just blindly take the Warriors, but not this time. |
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02-27-16 | Blazers -4.5 v. Bulls | Top | 103-95 | Win | 100 | 7 h 52 m | Show |
No Derrick Rose tonight. No Butler. Of course, no Noah. Without the core of the team this Chicago team is below average. Heck, even with these guys in the lineup this team has been a big disappointment. Even though the Blazers lost last time out vs. Houston this team had won six straight prior to that loss, including a blowout at home against the Warriors. This team has been underrated all season and they are playing their best basketball of the season right now and really coming together as a team. The Bulls have been one of the worst ATS teams all season long and this team keeps getting too much respect from the oddsmakers because of the name on the jersey. Unless Rose miraculously plays this line is a gift and even if he does take the court we expect the road team to control this one and score the pretty easy win. |
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02-26-16 | Clippers -3.5 v. Kings | 117-107 | Win | 100 | 9 h 51 m | Show | |
This Sacramento team is fools’ gold. They will string a few good games together and give bettors confidence then they will stink things up on the court for an even longer winning streak. They had a recent three-game winning streak, but that included two wins over Denver and one over Philly. But they were embarrassed last time out against the Spurs on this same court and now this looks like the start of a losing streak because the team that just beat down the Spurs right after the All-Star Break comes to town looking for a bounce back after one of their worst performances of the season. Last time out the Clippers lost at home to Denver, 87-81, as an 11-point favorite. Even though we had Denver in that game and thought it would be a close one, we didn’t expect the Clippers to struggle like that. It was obviously just an off game, which even the best teams in the NBA have. But they should be in good shape to bounce back here. They are the much better and consistent team here. Sacramento is one of the worst defensive teams in the league and they play at a fast pace, which plays to the Clips strengths. LA has been great in bouncing back after a loss (6-0 ATS) and we think this line is way too short tonight. |
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02-26-16 | Wizards -8.5 v. 76ers | 103-94 | Win | 100 | 6 h 52 m | Show | |
The last three meetings have all been Washington blowouts, and the smallest margin of victory has been 12 points. The largest was 29. That 12-point win was earlier in the month. Even though that game looked somewhat close, the Wizards jumped out to a 20-point lead at the end of the first quarter and led by as many as 25 before taking their foot off the gas in the second half. But we still think this one is a major mismatch. Philly is getting too much credit for a non-existent home-court advantage. The Wizards are desperate here and need to start racking up wins to make the playoffs. They can’t afford to overlook teams like this even with a team like Cleveland next up on deck on Sunday. But if the Wizards win this one (which we think they will do easy), can manage an upset of Cleveland at home then they play Philly again Monday. This is a real chance to gain some confidence and get a little win streak going. Washington has covered in five of the last six meetings and we thought this line should have been double digits tonight. |
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02-26-16 | Hornets v. Pacers -3.5 | Top | 96-95 | Loss | -106 | 6 h 51 m | Show |
Revenge isn’t normally a big handicapping factor for us when it comes to the NBA, but we think it will come into play big time here tonight in Indiana. Earlier this month, on this same floor, the Hornets came in and embarrassed Indiana with a 22-point win in the first meeting of the season between these teams. There is no doubt Indiana has had this game circled since then. Indiana has been playing very well lately. They will come into this one with a lot of confidence after winning five of their last seven, including a road win at OKC. Charlotte had won five straight recently but they had a momentum killer last time out in a loss at Cleveland where they played very flat the entire game. Once a big streak like that is snapped teams tend to go back to their normal nightly effort. That’s why wins and losses often come in waves in the NBA. Charlotte is one of those teams that is very good at home and really lousy at home. They are just 10-18 on the road. Indiana is 18-9 at home. Indiana has also been very good against teams with winning records when at home as they are 10-4 ATS in these situations. We expect this to be a comfortable win for the home squad tonight. |
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02-25-16 | Spurs -3 v. Jazz | Top | 96-78 | Win | 100 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
The Spurs have by far the best defense in the NBA this season as they hold opponents to less than 93 points per game. The Jazz are one of the worst offensive teams in the NBA. They also have a strong defense, but the Spurs can score on offense. They have a lot of edges in this matchup all over the court and on the sideline in Coach Popovich as well. Kawhi Leonard is back in the lineup for the Spurs and he is their best player now. He will be a difference maker tonight, and we think there is a good chance for a blowout here. Yes, the Spurs are on a back-to-back, but they got an easy win last night and they are 11-0 in back-to-backs this season (7-4 ATS). They had two nights off before last night’s game so they should be fine here as far as fatigue. Both meetings thus far this season were major Spurs blowouts and we think the bookies are giving the Jazz way to much credit tonight. |
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02-24-16 | Nuggets +10.5 v. Clippers | Top | 87-81 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
Denver has lost three straight but this team recently covered 11 of 12 games and they are undervalued again here. We thought that this line should be closer to eight points and we think there is a very good chance that this will be a close game. The Clippers are a very public team and even though they have played well to come out of the break one of those wins was against Phoenix and the blowout against the Spurs was more of an off game for San Antonio than a great one for LA. But Denver has lost by more than 10 only once in the last five meetings and they always tend to play well in this series. They have also been playing very well on offense and they should be able to score enough points to keep this one close and be in a position to win this one late. We think the total is about five points too low and expect this one to be a barnburner at Staples Center. |
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02-24-16 | Hornets +8 v. Cavs | 103-114 | Loss | -101 | 5 h 27 m | Show | |
The Hornets are under the radar right now but this team is finally getting healthy and they have been playing some very nice basketball lately. The Hornets have won five straight and seven of their last nine games. They have covered six of their last eight. This is a team public bettors don’t pay attention to since they don’t have a lot of star power but this team can be a real force in the east when healthy. The Cavs are a very public team so their spreads are normally inflated and that’s why they don’t have a great ATS record despite their stellar SU record. They looked flat last time out in a loss to Detroit and this will be their third game in four nights. Charlotte won pretty easily at home when these teams played earlier in the month and we think they match up well with Cleveland and expect this to be a close game. |
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02-21-16 | Lakers +7 v. Bulls | Top | 115-126 | Loss | -102 | 8 h 38 m | Show |
This is the worst version of this Bulls team that we have seen in years and there is no way they should be laying this many points to anyone, even the Lakers. Chicago has been one of the worst bets in the NBA this season at 21-33 ATS. They are 10-17 ATS here at home and 3-8 ATS at home against losing teams. LA comes into this game very healthy and this team has been scrappy lately with six straight covers. This is a team that is playing hard every game lately but they keep losing so their spreads are staying honest. We think the home team is overvalued again tonight and we expect a close game here and think the Lakers have a really good chance to win this one straight up. |
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02-19-16 | Heat +10 v. Hawks | 115-111 | Win | 100 | 8 h 33 m | Show | |
Just think this is way too many points for what we expect to be a very competitive game. This is an overreaction to the Chris Bosh injury and the Whiteside suspension. Miami blew out the Hawks last time without Whiteside in the lineup. They have a very solid defense and even with some key players out of the lineup the system is in place and that is why it’s tough to lay this many points against a team like this because in a low-scoring game every point is even more valuable. Wade is healthy here and playing well and when he is at his best he is probably the best player on the court in this game. We think the Heat keep this one within seven points tonight. |
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02-19-16 | Pistons +2 v. Wizards | 86-98 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 33 m | Show | |
The Wizards are one of a few teams on a back-to-back here after the all-star break. This team hasn’t been good in back-to-back situations this season at 3-8 SU. They have been a little better against the spread but they have to win here to cover this line. The Wizards are the better team on paper but games aren’t played on paper and the Pistons are having a stronger season and currently have three more wins than Washington. Detroit also has a strong history in this series with four covers in the last five meetings and they have covered in six of the last seven games here in Washington. We think the wrong team is favored here as we had the Pistons as a slight one-point favorite here and expect them to get the road win here tonight. |
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02-18-16 | Spurs -4.5 v. Clippers | Top | 86-105 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
We don’t think the Clippers are any match for a well-rested Spurs team here on Thursday night. Yes, LA has been playing much better since Blake Griffin first went out with injury. They, however, haven’t had a very challenging schedule during that stretch, and they didn’t perform great against the best competition. Let’s look at their toughest games: at Boston (OT loss), at Atlanta (2-point win), at Indiana (2-point win), at Toronto (blowout loss), at Cleveland (blowout loss), vs. Houston (OT win). They will face a huge step up in talent tonight against the Spurs. Now let’s look at how the Clippers have done this season against the NBA’s best: vs. OKC (one-point loss), at San Antonio (8-point loss), vs. Golden State (seven-point loss), at Golden State (four-point loss). And Griffin was playing in those games. Yes, the team has done well without Griffin but that came against some questionable competition. This team hasn’t done well with Griffin in the lineup against the best teams and they are just not as good of a team without him despite what their recent record might indicate. We think they are outmatched tonight. The Spurs don’t need much motivation to play well, but they will want to start the second half of the season strong with a marquee win here. The Spurs always play well here in LA and have covered in five of the last seven meetings and they have covered in five of the last seven overall. Add in some unprecedented rest and that tilts the needle further in the Spurs favor here. The Spurs are one of the best teams to bet on this season and have compiled a 34-19 ATS record, and they are often undervalued on the road (15-10 ATS). The Clips are just 4-6 ATS at home against winning teams, and just that small sample size shows that they haven’t been tested a lot here. The Spurs are a much better overall team and this line is right tonight. |
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02-11-16 | Pelicans v. Thunder -12 | Top | 95-121 | Win | 100 | 7 h 5 m | Show |
We think the Thunder are the clear play of the week in this spot tonight. They have won 15 of their last 18 games and are playing as well as anyone in the league right now. A win here would get them to 40 wins before the all-star break, and that will be huge motivation. They will also be motivated by the death of Ingrid Williams, the wife of assistant Monty Williams. By all accounts she was very special to the team and they will no doubt play this game in her honor. And their opponent tonight is the Pelicans, the team that fired Williams as he was their head coach for quite awhile. Regardless of those angles the Thunder are just a vastly superior team here. This is the second-best offensive team in the NBA, and the Pelicans have one of the worst defenses. We don’t think they will be able to keep up here. OKC is well rested having had two nights off while the Pelicans will be playing on the road in a back-to-back and this will be their third game in four nights. Also, news came out yesterday that Tyreke Evans, the Pelicans second-best player, is likely out for the season. And that hurts a team that was already fragile to begin with. Anthony Davis is too young to carry the weight of the entire team on his shoulders. |
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02-10-16 | Warriors v. Suns +17 | Top | 112-104 | Win | 100 | 8 h 15 m | Show |
If the Warriors are ever going to take a game off this is probably it. They can beat the Suns without much effort. This is their last game before the All-Star break and this squad has a lot going on during the break and there won’t be a lot of “rest” involved. Just don’t see them putting in enough effort tonight to cover this huge number on the road. This team has done enough good work for the first half of the season that they deserve to take a night off here. Even if they don’t the Suns should play hard here. There is absolutely no reason for them to relax tonight. They have a new coach and they have been more competitive lately. Every time Golden State comes to town it’s one of the biggest games of the season for any team and that will be the case for the Suns tonight. Phoenix has covered in two of the last four, and while that is not incredibly impressive they did not embarrass themselves in any of those games and they seem to have inspired motivation now that Hornacek is out of the picture. |
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02-10-16 | Lakers +15.5 v. Cavs | 111-120 | Win | 100 | 7 h 14 m | Show | |
We think the line is right here and that this is a good spot for the Lakers. LA has been very competitive of late and has covered in four straight games and in five of their last six. The Cavs have just not been good against large spreads and they are 9-17 ATS when laying more than seven points on the season. We just don’t see a blowout here. The Lakers hung with the Spurs on the road recently and that is the type of game we expect here tonight as we think that Cleveland will be looking ahead to the All-Star game and the Lakers probably want to keep improving and a competitive game here would give them some momentum heading into the break. We think there is a great chance LA keeps this one within double digits. |
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02-10-16 | Clippers +1.5 v. Celtics | 134-139 | Loss | -104 | 7 h 44 m | Show | |
Love this spot for the Clippers and think this line is way too low. LA has been playing very well in all the recent matchups against Eastern Conference teams. They had a bit of a hiccup last time out at Philly (we were all over the Sixers there) and were down by as many as 19 before rallying and winning in OT. The Clippers are not only winning but covering a lot of games. This team has been playing its best basketball since Blake Griffin first went down with injury. And they also weathered the storm of the Griffin off-court injury. This team seems very focused right now and they want to go into the all-star break on a high note. They catch Boston in a bad spot here. They come in on a back-to-back after a hard-fought game vs. Milwaukee, a loss, and the Clippers haven’t played any back-to-backs lately so they will be rested here. Boston has been playing well on offense and their defense has been giving up a lot of points and we expect the pace to be swift here and we think LA wins a game where both teams get well over the century mark. |
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02-09-16 | Jazz v. Mavs -1.5 | Top | 121-119 | Loss | -103 | 8 h 36 m | Show |
The Jazz have been playing well but they still stink on the road and we think they are a bit overvalued right now. This team is just 8-15 on the road this season, and that is with winning their last two road games, although those wins came over Brooklyn and Phoenix, two of the worst teams in the NBA. They face a step up in class here and we think Dallas wins this one pretty comfortably. Utah has lost 10 straight here in Dallas. They have covered in just one of the last eight meetings overall. Dallas wins and losses seem to come in waves and they recently lost three straight against a tough schedule but they earned a big OT win last time out in Memphis and we think they keep the momentum going here against a hot Utah team that has done most of their solid work lately against a home-heavy schedule. Let’s see how they fare here on the road against a solid Western Conference foe. |
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02-09-16 | Wizards +1 v. Knicks | 111-108 | Win | 100 | 7 h 6 m | Show | |
Washington has covered in all of the last four meetings here in New York and we think they will do it again here tonight. The Knicks parted ways with Derek Fisher and now Kurt Rambis is leading the team on an interim basis. Even though Fisher stunk this is a downgrade at the coaching position and this Knicks team is a clear fade right now. Things may get worse for this team before they get better and this squad has already dropped 9 of their last 10. The Wizards have had two nights off (4-0 ATS in this situation) and they are healthy right now and even though this team has been disappointing thus far this is clearly a superior team and we had them favored by four in our handicapping for this game so the value here is real tonight. |
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02-08-16 | Pelicans +1.5 v. Wolves | Top | 116-102 | Win | 100 | 7 h 5 m | Show |
Love this line for the visitors here tonight as we had the Pelicans handicapped at -3 so we think there is incredible value tonight with the wrong team favored. New Orleans has lost four straight but three of those losses came to the Spurs, Cavs and Grizzlies and then the Lakers caught them in a back-to-back after that Spurs matchup. That’s a very tough schedule. The role of favorite has been one of the worst for Minnesota as they have compiled a 4-10 ATS record as favorite this season and they are a lousy 8-17-1 ATS at home. The bookies are down on New Orleans right now but we think they are the better team in this matchup against a team that has shown to have no home-court edge and we think the Pelicans get the win tonight. |
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02-08-16 | Clippers v. 76ers +9 | 98-92 | Win | 100 | 6 h 5 m | Show | |
Even though it hasn’t translated into a lot of wins, this Philly team has been playing a lot better than they were playing when they started the season on a historic slide. Some of these young players are finally starting to play together and they have some good veteran leadership that is helping lead the team. The Clippers have been playing very well. But this is a bad spot for them and too many points. They come in on a back-to-back and this will be their third game in four days. They beat Miami yesterday and have the Celtics up next before the All-Star Break and this is very likely a game they will sleepwalk through and LA just hasn’t been very good as a big favorite like this. |
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02-06-16 | Jazz v. Suns +6.5 | 98-89 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 42 m | Show | |
We won’t be taking the Suns too often this season but we think this is a great spot for them and expect them to compete for the win tonight. Utah’s stock is high right now as they have won five straight. They just completed a six-game homestand, however, so that record is somewhat misleading. This team is just 7-15 away from home this season (for comparison, the Suns have 10 wins at home). They are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games. The Suns have played pretty well in their last two games here at home with covers against the Raptors and Rockets. In fact, they have now covered four of five at home with the only ATS loss being that blowout by the Spurs. Phoenix was off last night and they had a couple days off the last few nights while Utah is in on a back-to-back and playing their third game in four nights. Utah is on upset alert here tonight. |
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02-06-16 | Nets v. 76ers -1.5 | Top | 98-103 | Win | 100 | 7 h 12 m | Show |
The Sixers haven’t been favored many times this season but when they have been favorites they have taken care of business with a 2-0 ATS record as favorites. This is a bad spot for Brooklyn. They broke a five-game losing streak with probably their biggest win of the season last night, 128-119 over Sacramento. Now they come in on a back-to-back, on the road, and this is their third game in four nights. Philly is in the same rest situation but being at home is a big advantage here. They are just 2-7 on back-to-backs this season. They used up a lot of energy in that win last night and we think they come out flat on defense here and that will give Philly a big advantage on the offensive end. Philly is 6-3 ATS at home against sub-.500 teams. The Nets are 3-7 ATS as a small underdog of less than three points this season. These teams don’t play good defense in the best of situations but it should be even worse tonight since these teams are fatigued. Offense comes naturally to NBA-level players but defense is something that requires a lot of energy and we don’t see either team playing any D tonight. |