Sports Picks & Predictions

The Cavs got a double-whammy of urgency after both losing Game 3 at home to Boston and also with the Warriors finishing their series against San Antonio in a sweep. Now Golden State is resting until this series is over and the NBA Finals start so it’s urgent for the Cavs to finish this one off and put the Celtics to bed. We don’t like laying this many points typically but we think the Cavs are the only way to go here. Boston had their moment of glory in Game 3 but we think this one will be all Cleveland from here on out. The Cavs were up by as many as 21 in Game 3 but they took their foot off the gas and the Celtics played just about the best they can with the current roster and won the game on a buzzer-beater. We see Cleveland playing more of a complete game here and if they are as motivated as we think they will be tonight they should have no problem covering this large number.

We had the Celtics in the east in Game 3 and they won straight up as massive underdogs and now we think that this game will follow a similar script here in the west. Golden State and Cleveland seem very competitive between each other already and we are not even to the NBA Finals. Once one team reaches an achievement then the other team tries to outdo them. And now that the Cavs lost Game 3 we think the Warriors might let up a little bit here. This is the most value-packed line for the Spurs all series and we think they are getting too many points. Kawhi Leonard is doubtful here but the Celtics showed that a proud team can rise up without its best player and we think the Spurs will play with a lot of pride here tonight. We were on the Warriors in every game this series but we think the value has switched over to the other side. The crowd will be crazy here and we have a feeling Popovich has something up his sleeve tonight to get the best out of his team. Not sure the Spurs can win this one straight out as the Warriors are just too good, but we do think the Spurs can keep this one within double digits and this team just won’t roll over tonight.

We liked the opening line in this game and we expected Thomas to be out and now that he has been ruled out for the playoffs this number has jumped even higher and we just think this is a bit of a ridiculous number. We love to back a team that was humiliated in their last game and we think the Celtics will play with a lot of pride tonight. This team has never been about one guy. This squad has played some of the best team basketball in the NBA this season and this is a prideful bunch and we think that they will go all out on the defensive end tonight and keep this game close. We think the Cavs will settle down a bit and they won’t play with the same hunger that they did last time out. The Celtics had one of the worst games in franchise history last game and we just think they will really step up tonight and the Cavs will not get as many easy baskets as they have for the first couple games of the series. When we look at his line we have to say this is not the Phoenix Suns this is the Boston Celtics and they are getting way too many points tonight. This one could be a blowout and we can still cover.

We don’t think the extra days off or change in venue are going to help the Spurs too much in this Game 3 tonight. Of course the big story here is that Kawhi Leonard is questionable. We don’t think it will make a difference if he plays or not in this one. This is an injury that would probably keep him out significantly in the regular season so if they throw him in there it might so more harm than good, especially since the Warriors will play at a very high pace and the Spurs rely on Leonard for a lot of their defensive efforts. Playing on a bum ankle will probably hurt the team more than help on the defensive end. If he doesn’t play then their offense is really in trouble as they have to keep up with the best offense in the game. The NBA’s two best teams seem on a collision course for the NBA Finals and there is nothing that is going to stand in their way. Both teams want to end these series early in order to get the most rest possible before the NBA Finals. Golden State saw what Cleveland did to Boston last night and they will now want to one-up the Cavs. These teams really want to pound their opponents and they won’t let up at the end of the game. We really thought that this line should be closer to 9 and we would still like the Warriors at that number and we think they will win by double digits again. The Spurs would be outmatched even at full strength but with two starters likely out (Tony Parker and Leonard) the Spurs are at even more of a disadvantage and they really look like they don’t believe they have any chance in this series. And they are right.

This is what we took for Game 1 but we think both of these plays will cash tonight just like they did for the first game in this ECF matchup. Boston got off to a real slow start in Game 1 and shot terribly from the floor. That should improve tonight and we think they will play more of a complete game so we won’t have to sweat out this total until the end. Even with Boston unable to make many shots in the first half of Game 1 this one still got over the posted total. It’s doubtful to think that they will go that cold again. And we just don’t think that the Celtics can match the Cavs on the court and Cleveland can easily score 120+ in this game. They have been simply dominant in this playoffs and we think they want to sweep this series really bad and they have a chance with a win tonight. Boston let the Wizards hang around too long and now they are at a severe disadvantage in this series after playing in Game 7 while the Cavs had plenty of time to rest.

These teams averaged almost 225 points in four regular-season meetings. The first meeting this season made it all the way to 250. Both teams are playing really well on offense right now. Cleveland scored 109 or more in all four of their games in their sweep of Toronto. We don’t think they will be rusty because after a long layoff last series they came right out and scored 116 against the Raptors so they were able to pick up right where they left off. Boston has averaged 124 points in their last four home games on offense, and although we don’t think they can keep up with this fresh Cavs team we do think they will be able to score their fair share of points to get this one over the posted number. We think both teams will run a lot here and there’s a great chance that this one will wind up above 220. It could go well above that number as long as the Celtics avoid any lengthy cold shooting streaks.

Game 1 went over the total easily and that was with the Warriors really rusty in the first half. They came to life in the second half and got back into playoff form and we think that will continue here. The Spurs are a team we liked a lot during the regular season. But this team just does not compare to the Warriors, probably one of the best teams of all time, even at full strength. But they are not anywhere near full strength tonight missing Parker and likely Leonard as well. The Spurs have shown in these playoffs they can score without Leonard and we think they will be able to score enough to make up their share to get this one over the posted number but we expect the Warriors to continue where they left off as they scored 71 in the second half of Game 1 and we just think this is a mismatch with the banged-up Spurs and a motivated Warriors team tonight.

Boston has averaged 125 points in their three home games in this series and we think they will play well on offense tonight after a lousy effort on that front in Game 6. You get the feeling that Washington gave everything they had in Game 6 to win it at the end, and the Celtics were robbed of an extra second on the clock that could have given them more time for the game-winning shot at the end of the game. We always said we thought that this series would go to Game 7 and now we are here. But we think that the Celtics will win this one big. They have covered in all three home games in this series and they have covered in five of the last seven meetings overall. This has been a good series but the better team will advance tonight.

With five days off we like the Warriors here to win in a blowout. Yes, Kawhi Leonard is likely to play here but we doubt he is close to 100% and San Antonio is already down a starter in Tony Parker. They have had a much tougher road than the Warriors in these playoffs and just a couple days off coming into this game. The Warriors did everything right this regular season as for not exerting themselves too much while San Antonio played harder in the regular season than we normally see them (and maybe that is why they have had injury issues in the postseason). We like to play the Warriors when they are motivated and we think that motivation kicks into high gear here now that they have a more formidable opponent. But we think Golden State is on a whole other level above the Spurs and we think they flex their muscle here on Sunday.

All five games in this series have been decided by 10 points or more and we think Washington will win this one tonight so we don’t mind laying the number here on Friday. Not only has the home team covered every game in this series but that pattern has been intact in the last nine meetings between these clubs. With so many short series this playoff season we think there will be at least one Game 7 in this round and this one looks like it could be the one. The refs might give the home team some extra love in order for that to happen. The Wizards won their two home games in this series by an average of 23 points and we think they can play that way again here and send this one back to Boston for a deciding Game 7.

The over has hit in four of the five games in this series. And we don’t think that trend will continue tonight. The only game that went under was that game where the Rockets had one of their worst shooting games of the playoffs and the Spurs didn’t play all that well either. But that was way back in Game 3 and these teams have been better offensively since. This one has all the signs of a seven-game series and has been one of the best series of the playoffs so far. We are sure the Rockets will get the favorable calls at home by the refs to give them an extra push to get this series to Game 7. Kawhi Leonard didn’t play much at the end of Game 5 with an ankle sprain and he will likely play here but it’s doubtful he can play to full effectiveness and we think that helps the Rockets and the Over here as he won’t be at his best defensively and Houston will try to push the pace even more with him hobbled.

In our mind Washington has covered three games in this series even though they only covered two. We had them in Game 2 and they should have won and covered but we suffered a bad beat in OT. But they have clearly been undervalued in this series and we think they have grabbed all the momentum in this series with two massive blowouts in Games 3 and 4. We don’t think this one will be a blowout, however, and we expect a close game. But the road team definitely has a chance to win this one straight out. We called a close game in San Antonio last night in Game 5 over in the west after all the games had been blowouts and we think this Game 5 will go down in a similar fashion and we just have to take the points here with the team that is in better form in a series that we have thought was pretty even all along.

Every game in this series has been a blowout but we think we are in store for a close game tonight. All four regular-season matchups were decided by four points or less. We have always liked the Rockets in this series and now that this one is a three-game series we think Houston will take one of these road games. It seems they have regained their shooting touch in Game 4 and we expect it to continue here. The loss of Nene hurts this team but we expect his teammates to rise up in his absence and this seems like a team that can handle adversity well. In a game we expect to be close we have to take the points here and we think Houston is getting a couple too many.

We were on the other side in Game 3 and the Warriors won by 11 even though Utah played well most of the game. But here for Game 4 we are getting probably the best line for Utah in the entire series as they are now getting a big number at home where they try to avoid the sweep in Game 4. The Jazz actually led Game 3 for quite a bit of time and had a nine-point lead at one point. While Toronto basically threw in the towel in their Game 4 and rolled over we think Utah will play with a lot more pride here and they don’t have a lot of pressure in their Game 4 as opposed to Toronto because nobody thought they would get this far anyways. We think they will be loose and will go out there and play their game and we wouldn’t be shocked to see them score a close win here to give the home crowd one last gift before the season ends. We think this will be a close game either way.

We had the Rockets big Game 3 and it was a real head-scratcher of a game. Neither team played well but Houston was just awful. They shoot incredibly poorly. Some of that was the Spurs defense but mostly they were just off. But we still think the Rockets have a great chance to win this series, and they are pretty much in a must-win situation here in Game 4. Harden and the Rockets can’t go too long with this cold shooting and we expect things to turn around in Game 4. We expected Houston to win one of these home games in a blowout and since it didn’t happen in Game 3 we think there is a great chance that Game 4 is the one.

We think there’s a great chance that this one goes to seven games. And we love the way the Wizards have played the last two games. We think they should be up 2-1 here. But they blew Game 2 in OT. But we think these teams are pretty even and we expect the Wizards to take care of business at home in Game 4. After the huge Game 3 win by Washington we handicapped this game at 6.5 with a strong lean to the home team at that line so we love that we are getting a short line here for Sunday. We expect the Wizards to win by 7+ points and set the stage for a three-game series for the right to proceed to the ECF.

Game 3 was Toronto’s big chance to get back in this series and they just fell flat on their face. Now they are playing for nothing more than pride. If they didn’t play hard enough with everything on the line why would they suddenly raise their level of play for just pride? It looks like Kyle Lowry might miss this game as well. They have no chance without him. Cleveland is all about rest as they have played the last couple seasons with rest being a main priority and we think they will want to end this series on Sunday and give themselves a long rest before the winner of Washington/Boston is decided.

The Jazz have snuck in the back door in both Games 1 and 2 with the late cover. But we just haven’t liked the way they played overall in those two games. A couple stretches of cold shooting by the Warriors is the only reason these games weren’t 20-point blowouts. George Hill is questionable here and the Jazz need every single member of the team to be competitive here. The Warriors know how crucial a Game 3 matchup is and the series will essentially be over if they win so we think they go all out to achieve that goal here on Saturday. The Jazz played about the best they can offensively in Game 2 yet still lost big and we just don’t see how they can keep up with the road team tonight unless Golden State just has a real bad game shooting from the floor.

Both Games 1 and 2 were blowouts and we think this one has a good chance to go that way as well. We think the Rockets have a great chance to win this series. Everyone talks about the Clippers failures in the playoff but the Spurs have fallen on their faces in the postseason the last two years with the current core, losing to these same Clippers a couple seasons ago and falling in the second round to the Thunder last season. They just haven’t been as good in the postseason as they have in the regular season and we see Houston taking this one. Yes, Tony Parker is out for the Spurs. He will be out for the rest of the playoffs. That kind of hurts us with this play as I think the casuals put too much stock in Parker’s current abilities and as a result has moved this line from the opening number of 4. But we don’t think the points will matter here. Houston is just a very underrated team. We think that they have a better chance against the Warriors in the conference finals than the Spurs would. And after a lousy Game 2 we think they will bounce back here in Game 3. James Harden had a real bad game in Game 2. He scored only 13 and was 3-for-17. That’s not going to happen again at home and those numbers will probably even out here in Game 3, meaning we expect a big night from the Houston star. In Game 2 Houston went down by 10 at the half and they shot poorly in the second half. And the Spurs shot well above their season average from the floor. Houston will play better defense here at home and the Spurs won’t play as well offensively but we expect a big bounce back from the Rockets offense here. We feel this is a very public line and from what we saw in Game 1 we think the Rockets can win this one by 7+ in this crucial Game 3 matchup.

The Jazz were able to sneak in the back door in Game 1 and we think they will play a better game overall here and we think they can keep this one within double digits. This is an inflated line as far as we are concerned and after playing pretty lousy most of Game 1 we think Utah will play better here. We think they will make more of a contribution on the offensive end to get this one over the posted number. This series has had a bunch of unders, but Game 1 was real close to going over and the Warriors probably took their foot off the gas a bit at the end of that game but we think that this one will be more competitive and the Warriors will still be taking the game seriously late in the fourth. That will help the total here, and we think this will be a very competitive game overall.

We were going to go higher units on Washington here as we thought the spread would be about 4 but it opened at 5 at most shops and has been bet to this number, taking some of the value out of the home team. We still think that the Wizards will win this one and get back in the series. We think this series is pretty close despite the Celtics winning Games 1 and 2. It should be tied now but the Celtics had an amazing comeback in Game 2 and won it in OT. We don’t think Thomas can repeat his Superman performance from Game 2 and the Wizards will probably get a more well-rounded game on their side and Beal’s numbers are sure to even out after a poor shooting night in Game 2. Washington won both games in blowout fashion at home in this series during the regular season, and we expect them to get a comfortable win here.

Game 1 was the first Cleveland blowout in this series since last season. Toronto won big in one regular-season meeting but all the others were Cleveland wins by no more than four points. We just don’t see the Cavs winning big in both home games here to start the series and we think the Raptors are a live dog tonight. Toronto has been good after a loss lately and they are 5-1 ATS after a straight up loss. That means that this team is good at bouncing back lately, and we think that will be the case tonight. Cleveland has been one of the worst ATS teams this season and they are constantly overvalued by the oddsmakers. We certainly think that is the case tonight as normally the team that loses Game 1 is tabbed to bounce back and play better in Game 2 but we are getting an even better line here.

We think that Utah built a lot of momentum in their series win over the Clippers. We think that will carry over here. Everyone is criticizing the Clippers for losing to an “inferior” team, but we were very impressed with the Jazz and their defense, especially in their Game 7 performance in LA in the close out game. We love the Jazz here getting this many points and feel they will keep this one within double digits. They were able to control the pace in almost every game against the Clippers and they held them under 100 (one of the best offensive teams in the NBA) in six of the seven games of the series. We think that they will be able to disrupt the Warriors offense a bit and slow them down, and that makes all these points even more valuable. Golden State made it look easy against Portland but they face a much better team here in the second round and the Jazz will be competitive here. The nightlife isn’t the only reason the Warriors wanted to play the Clippers because they have a mental edge over that team but we don’t think they own the same against Utah and the Jazz will give everything they have in this series.

In Game 1 the Wizards hung right with the Celtics most of the game but they had a real poor third quarter where they were outscored by 20 points and that was the difference in the game. We had Boston in Game 1 for our free pick but we are going to use the zig zag theory here and we expect the road team to play a more complete game here on Tuesday night. Boston has now won five straight games after going down 2-0 in their series against the Bulls but for that reason we think they are starting to get overvalued because normally in this case the odds would sway towards the road team that is desperate for a win. We think they will play much better here and we expect a close game as we don’t see Washington playing two lousy games in a row.

Houston has a real chance to win this playoff series. There are three real legit teams in the west this year and these are two of them. We think the Rockets are getting a very nice number here and we think that this series will be competitive. The Spurs have had some struggles in the playoffs in recent years and their postseason results don’t really match their regular-season successes. They had a tougher time with Memphis than they should have in the first round and now they face a much better squad. The Spurs won three of four meetings in the regular season but all the games were close and we don’t think that this one is very different. And most of the pressure seems like it’s on the Spurs here as no one is talking about Houston much and this line is off as well as we thought 3.5 would be more appropriate and we would lean to the Rockets at that number as well.

We like the underdog to cover here in Game 1 on Monday. The Cavs aren’t as good as they were the last couple of seasons and this team has been overrated by the oddsmakers all season long. It wouldn’t be surprising if they were unseated in the east this year. Toronto probably doesn’t have the horses to get it done, but Boston will be a good series if both advance. Cleveland swept the Pacers but all the games were close and six points was the largest margin of victory. Now they face an even better team. Their last game was 4/23 so there is a good chance they are rusty for this one too and a couple missed buckets at the start of the game that would otherwise go in can really help the underdog tonight. The Cavs won three of four regular-season meetings but none were by more than four points. Toronto is a lice dog tonight and the Cavs should face even more adversity in this series than they did against the Pacers.

Utah put up quite a fight in this series but now they are in a real bad position after blowing it in Game 6 at home. That was a pretty easy win for the Clippers and we think the momentum will carry over here into this Game 7. The Clippers, as most NBA teams, are much better at home and they have had some success here in Game 7s (remember that epic game against San Antonio?). The Clippers aren’t as good without Blake Griffin but Jamal Crawford started to heat up in Game 6 and J.J. Redick should contribute here as well. The Jazz have a nice team and a solid defense but now that home-court advantage is back in the Clippers hands we think they will take advantage and will be the lucky team to likely get swept by the Warriors. LA is the better team even without Blake and Chris Paul really seems like he is on a mission to win this one and having the best player on the court normally makes a big difference in these types of Game 7 situations.

This is do or die for the Clippers and maybe the last stand of this franchise as we know it with the current core of players. The Clippers have not played up to expectations in this series, even with Blake Griffin out of the lineup. But this matchup is still close and we just think that this is too many points tonight in what we expect to be a hotly-contested game on both sides. We have to assume LA will leave everything on the floor tonight and that they will establish the pace to get this one over the posted total. We have always thought this series would go to Game 7 as most of the Clippers playoff series have, and we think they will shoot better from the floor tonight.

We like the Celtics to close this thing out tonight. The road team has mostly been the bet so far in this series. And we think that trend will continue tonight. The Celtics had some off-court distractions that held them back in Games 1 and 2 but they have played up to expectations since and we think they are being underrated by the oddsmakers here tonight. We had this line handicapped at Boston -6 so we think there is some nice value on the road team laying this small number.

The home team has dominated this series and as we go to Game 6 in Memphis we think the Grizzlies will give one last stand. They really match up pretty well with the Spurs and were in Game 5 most of the way until San Antonio really turned it on late. But we think the Griz will play well tonight and keep this one close throughout. They should feed off the crowd energy to keep playing hard until the final buzzer, win or lose. Four out of the five games in this series have gone over the posted total and the bookies haven’t made a big enough adjustment here. Memphis has surpassed the century mark in all of the last three games (one in OT) and we think they will score enough to both cover and get this one over the posted number.

Milwaukee is going to be good in a year or two. Potentially really good if they can stay healthy and add a piece or two. But they have lost the momentum in this series and we think this one ends tonight. Toronto’s offense has really come on and the Bucks really seem to have lost their defensive edge as they gave up 118 in the last game, a blowout loss in Toronto. The two nights off here really benefits the better team, and the Raptors are 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings in Milwaukee. We really thought that Toronto should be at least -2 here and we expect them to win tonight. They have been playing more like a team and have more scoring options and the further we have gotten into this series it’s evident that the Bucks are a one-man show.

The road team has won every game in this series. We don’t think that trend is sustainable, but we also think the road team is getting too many points tonight. For whatever reason the Celtics have not been good on their home court lately as they have covered in only one of their last nine games here. They are 17-26 ATS this season at home. This one is just a three-game series now and the Bulls have a real chance here with a win. Not sure they will get it, but this should be a close game. We just don’t think the Celtics will complete three straight blowouts in this series and we think they are once again overrated by the oddsmakers at home.

We were surprised that the Wizards played so poorly in Atlanta but now that they are back home we expect them to reestablish their dominance in this series. The home team has dominated this series both ATS and SU, and we expect that trend to continue tonight. Remember, although the Wizards played better on the road down the stretch they are only 19-24 at home but an almost unbeatable 32-11 at home this season. We think they come out fired up in this one and we think that this could be a double-digit win tonight. Washington was really good ATS this season at home and we think their home-court advantage will be the difference as they put Atlanta on the brink of elimination tonight.

We always like to get our vision of how a playoff series will unfold and then pick the individual games accordingly. And we think this one has all the attributes of a 7-game series. And why not? It seems like in every playoff series the Clippers play they find a way to disappoint and the underdog takes them to a Game 7. But we think they will play well tonight. They are being punished on this line for the loss of Blake Griffin but the team is OK without him as they have some guys that will benefit from more touches and Chris Paul is a maestro at point guard and will make the players around him better. Utah’s best player, Gordon Hayward, has to leave Game 4 after a few minutes because of bad food poisoning. He is an elite athlete and has the best training staff available, but it still is real hard to get over this type of illness quickly. So we don’t think he will be 100%. We think LA wins this and they should be able to do enough to cover this small number.

We think the OKC and Memphis lines could have been switched as the Rockets are pulling away in their series while the Grizzlies have captured momentum and are very much in this series. The bottom line here is that this is just too many points, especially since this total is in the high 180s; the lower the score the more valuable the points are for the underdog. Yes, San Antonio won by double-digit blowouts in their first two games. But in an NBA Playoff series teams become to know each other real well and although the Spurs will likely win this one we don’t think the Grizzlies will let this one become out of hand. Memphis is playing with a lot of confidence right now. And the Spurs have struggled in the playoffs the last couple years and maybe this team is just built more for regular season success than the playoffs. Regardless, we think this will be another close game.

We think Houston is the much better team in this matchup and it is imperative for them to close things out tonight as they want to get some rest before the second round. We think they will go all out to do that. The Thunder seem resigned to their fate after the frustration set in after Game 4 with Westbrook’s new conference tirade. Yes, that’s pretty cool that he was defending his teammates and all, but that is not the type of distraction you need to create when your team is down 3-1 in a playoff series. Houston has covered in 13 of the last 16 meetings in this series and we think they are in a prime spot to end this series with a double-digit win tonight. We thought that this line should be close to 10.

We always thought that the Wizards would win one game in Atlanta and it didn’t happen in Game 3 so we think it’s very likely to happen in Game 4, and as a result we had the Wizards as a whooping 4-point favorite in this one, meaning there is some amazing value here with the underdog. Washington got off to a slow start this season but they have been one of the best teams in the second half of the season and this team seems built to win this series to us. They lost their season opening game to the Hawks but they won all of the most recent three regular-season meetings and this team is just much better than the Hawks. And now the pressure is dialed up as they don’t want the Hawks to win this one and even the series up going back to DC for Game 5. They have some tougher opponents on the horizon and need to finish this one off ASAP, so getting the win here and putting the Hawks on the brink of elimination heading home for Game 5 is a scenario that they want and need to happen. Washington didn’t show a lot of urgency in Game 3 but they will show it tonight and we expect to see a completely different outcome than we saw there. And getting this many points means in case this is a close game and the Wiz lose a close one that we are protected a bit by the points. But we don’t think we will need them tonight as the Wizards should win straight up.

Toronto earned a road win last time out to even up the series and now the series heads back to Canada for Game 5 tonight. That win and cover was the first time the Raptors covered in five meetings between these clubs (the first three in this playoff series and the last meeting in the regular season). We still like Milwaukee to win this series and we think they will either win this Game 5 or be really competitive. They just had a horrible offensive night in Game 4 in scoring only 76 points on 37 percent shooting from the floor. They were also horrible from three-point land in going 5-of-21. A big part of that was a solid Toronto defense but also the shots just weren’t falling. But we think those numbers will even out tonight, and in a series with such low-scoring games as this one that makes the points with the underdog even more attractive.

Blake Griffin is out and this Clippers team can get by with CP3 and DeAndre Jordan and they will still probably win this series. But we have seen how this team deals with major injuries in the postseason in the past, and we expect to see a lot of feeling sorry for themselves tonight. Chris Paul played out of his mind to bring this team back in Game 3. But can we expect two performances in a row from him like this? Judging by history that’s doubtful. This is a must-win game for the Jazz tonight and we think they will take care of business at home. We can see this series going to 7 games as most of the Clippers playoff series have in the past, and that would mean a Utah win tonight. The Clippers actually played better in Game 3 after BG left the game and they can do some damage without him but we expect morale to be low here for the road team and the home team should be primed for a big performance.

Wasn’t ever too worried for Boston after they started 0-2 in this series with two home losses. They had some major off-court distractions that really affected the team. But they were uber-focused in Game 3 and we expect them to even the series up here on Sunday. Of course underdog teams can catch lightning in a bottle at any time but we just think that this Bulls team stinks and they barely made the playoffs. Boston is maybe one of the weaker No. 1 seeds in recent memory but they are still a much better team and the No. 8’s have such a torrid history in this matchup for a reason. Boston recaptured the momentum in this series and with one win today they reclaim home-court advantage in a three-game series and they will again be a heavy favorite to win this. We wouldn’t be surprised if this one was another blowout like Game 3.

The Thunder got a win last time out to save their chances for the series but they played about the best game they could at home in Game 3 and still won by only two points. We think it’s very telling that the line has shrunk from the Game 3 line and we think the Rockets win this game to put OKC on the brink of elimination. When both are playing their best Harden and Westbrook cancel each other out but the rest of the Houston team is much better than the roleplayers from OKC, and we had this game handicapped at Houston -3 so we think there is some really nice value here. Houston really struggled from three-point land in Game 3 and the Thunder shot well above average from three-point land and the floor in general. And for that disparity in shooting for the home team to win by only two tells us a lot. We think these numbers equal out and we think that there’s a great chance Houston wins this by 5+.

This line was a bit surprising to us as well after Game 2 saw the Warriors win by 39 points. This is just a major mismatch and we think Golden State will win this by 10+. Kevin Durant could rejoin the team tonight and if he does this line is sure to rise. But don’t wait for his status to be assured, just bet the game. Golden State has been in playoff mode for a couple weeks and they know they can end this series in four games and they will go for the jugular tonight. Portland had their big game in Game 1 and they played about the best they could and still lost by 12. We think we will see the best of the Warriors here tonight.

The Spurs had a bad game in Game 3. It happens to even the best teams. The Warriors and Cavs faced their share of playoff troubles en route to the NBA Finals last year.  But we aren’t going to punish San Antonio too much for that game. In fact, we think this team will come out as focused as ever. They need to finish these teams off fast to be in the best position to beat Golden State if these teams meet in the WCF like expected. And we know the mindset of this team and after a loss they are probably going to treat this like a Game 7 and go all out for the win, especially after getting run off the floor and embarrassed last time out. The Grizzlies are good but they are down this year from past squads and we think the Spurs win big here tonight.

When we saw this line we had to rub our eyes as we thought that the Wizards should be favored here. Washington has made it look easy in winning and covering the first two games of this series, and we don’t think they have played their best game yet, either. We think they have a great chance for the sweep here against an overrated Hawks team. They have now covered in four of the last five meetings between these clubs and we think the two nights off really plays to the advantage of the better team here. The Wizards got better on the road as the season went on and we think they have the upper hand in this matchup as they know they need to finish Atlanta off early and a win here means the series is all but over. They scored 109 and 114 in Games 1 and 2 and we think they can get near 115 again. The bookies adjusted this totals number down but we think they should have gone the other way.

Game 3 of a seven-game playoff series in the NBA is the most important one, and the Raptors performance in that game was pretty telling of where this team is at right now. We said from the start that we think the Raptors will lose this series and that became even more evident with that pitiful Game 3 performance. The Bucks are playing some incredible defense right now and this team seems built for postseason success. The Raptors just don’t seem to have an answer and yet here we are with a very public line for Game 4. With the way this series has gone we expected this number to be at least 5, and we think there is once again value on the underrated Bucks.

Both Games 1 and 2 have gone under easily and yet the bookies have not adjusted the number that much here for Game 3. But this is the most important game of this series unless it goes to 7 games and we expect both teams to keep doing what they have been doing on D. Utah is arguably the best defensive team in the league but they lost Rudy Gobert, who has already been ruled out for tonight. But this team plays a defensive system and the home crowd should fuel them tonight. The Clippers are known as an offensive team but down the stretch of the season this team has been playing excellent defense and they have been really good in the playoffs so far. The Jazz will have trouble getting anything going inside and they will try to slow the game down as they have in Games 1 and 2 in LA. But now they are home and we doubt the Clips will be able to push the pace too much. We think the Clippers will have enough on offense to win this game but we don’t see them getting too much over the century mark if they even get there. We think this will be a low-scoring game just like Games 1 and 2 and we think the better team will win here, and that’s the Clips.

We liked the Celtics and the under before it was announced this morning that Rajon Rondo was out indefinitely with a hand injury. Now we like these plays even more. This series has been one-sided so far but even lopsided NBA Playoff matches rarely wind up a sweep and we think the Celtics will win this game. They are the much better team. They have been dealing with a lot of issues the first two games and some off the court stuff that was a big distraction but they should be very focused here because if they lose this one the series is nearly over but if they win they are right back in it. They have one of the best coaches in the league and he should have a gameplan. Shooting hasn’t been good for this team in this series but we think they will concentrate on defense, and the loss of Rondo, who was having a very good series, will help them achieve their defensive goals. It’s telling that both Games 1 and 2 went over the total yet we are getting the lowest total thus far in the series. Both teams are rested and we think strong defense will be one of the main themes of the night.

The Grizzlies don’t seem to have any answer for the Spurs, who have won by double digits in both games at home. They held Memphis to 82 points in both games and even with the change of venue we just don’t see how the Grizzlies are going to improve too much on those offensive numbers. More than any series besides Portland/Golden State this one looks like the best chance for a sweep, and we think that the Spurs have learned a lot from their playoff failures the last couple years. The main lesson is to not take any game or opponent for granted, and we think there’s a chance they could play their best game of the series here in Game 3.  

The Bucks have been the better team in this series even though the Raptors won Game 2. But they needed some last-minute heroics to do so, and the change of venue should greatly favor the Bucks. Milwaukee has now covered three straight in this series and they are getting a very value-packed line again tonight. We think Milwaukee wins this one on the strength of their defense, which has been one of the better units in the NBA down the stretch run of the season. Their offense doesn’t score a lot so they really need to lock down on the defensive end in order to give themselves the best chance for the win. The Raps shot great from both the floor and 3-point land in Game 2 and we think the Bucks will make the necessary corrections here and have a much better defensive effort in Game 3. The bookies adjusted this total upwards after Game 2 but we think that number was adjusted the wrong way and this should go our way Thursday.

The Cavs have been one of the worst bets in the NBA all season long and they are overvalued once again here on Thursday. We had the Pacers as a slight favorite in this game and expect them to win Game 3 here at home. Indiana has been really competitive in this series and the Cavs are just not as good of a team as last season. This team normally doesn’t turn it on until the playoffs but something is just off with this club this season. Cleveland also hasn’t played great in this series and they have covered in only 2 of the last 13 meetings between these clubs and they are 1-6-1 ATS in the last eight meetings in Indiana. The Pacers will lose this series. But we think they provide a last gasp tonight as a desperate team in a must-win game, and the odds here are heavily skewed to the public Cavs.

We were on the Wizards Game 1 for our free pick and we like them here for Game 2 as well. We think this could be a really similar game as Game 1 but that maybe the Wizards cover by a couple more points as they have an even better offensive night. They missed a bunch of threes in that game and shot a real low percentage but that should probably turn around tonight and there is a great chance that they can put up even more than the 114 they scored on Sunday. They got off to a real slow start in the first half before playing really well in the second. We just think that Atlanta is outmatched here. They should get enough points to get this one over the total by virtue of the pace here, but we don’t see them being able to keep pace with Washington on the scoreboard.

The Jazz stole Game 1 but lost Rudy Gobert in the process. While that is a considerable loss, we think the oddsmakers have posted too big a number here. The Clippers just have a way of blowing it in the playoffs and after losing Game 1 at home now the pressure is really on this team – and this is a team that probably is more under the pressure cooker than any team in the playoffs because they have fallen well below expectations way too often in the postseason. And this team has shown that they don’t handle adversity well. We think they will likely get the win here but as both teams have been playing very good defense, we expect another low-scoring affair and that makes the points for the underdog even more valuable. We thought this line would be 7 at most after the Game 1 result so we think there is really some nice value tonight.

Really liked the way the Bucks took control of Game 1 and we think they are getting too many points in what should be a close, low-scoring game. We think the Bucks are underrated and we said with our Game 1 pick on them that we think they have a very good chance to win this series and now they have the home-court advantage after stealing Game 1. Milwaukee played very strong defense down the stretch of the season and they held Toronto to just 83 points in Game 1. The Raptors will get more points tonight. But we think the Bucks D will do enough to keep this one low scoring and give them a chance to win it at the end. We had this line handicapped at 4.5 so we like that we get the number on the other side of 7, a key betting number in the NBA.

To us this looks like the ugliest series in the first round of the playoffs. The bottom of the west was down this year and Portland barely made it in over the last few games because of a late-season surge. The Warriors had some issues throughout the season but now they are back in championship form and this team did everything right in the regular season this year as opposed to last season when they spent so much energy on setting regular-season records only to struggle more than expected in the playoffs. We feel the different approach will pay off here and the Warriors look primed for a blowout. Yes, this line is large but when Golden State is feeling it they can cover any line, and the Blazers don’t play well enough on defense to slow them down and their offense won’t be able to do enough to match that of the Warriors.

At the start of the season we said the Clippers would get out to a hot start as the pressure was on to perform better this year than they had in the past. And that is just what they did. They suffered some injuries throughout the season and the regular season didn’t turn out just as expected but they closed the season strong by winning their last seven games. But now is when the real test starts for this team. They have flamed out in the playoffs every year, and last season they looked like they would cruise against Portland and then Paul and Griffin were injured. Now this might be the last stand for this team. And just like they wanted a strong start to the regular season we think it’s of the utmost importance for this team to have a strong start to the postseason. Utah has a fine team but in the playoffs you need some star power. The Jazz rely on their stingy defense for success but the Clippers have been playing as well as anyone on the defensive end down the stretch but they have an offense that should be able to succeed here in this series and especially at home in Game 1. They have covered in five of the last six meetings between these teams and we think they will want to make a statement here in Game 1 while the public’s confidence is not too high with this team and therefore this line was released too short.

We just think that this line is too large on Saturday for the playoff opener in this series. We think this will be a close, low-scoring game. We think the Raptors had a down season from what we expected from them. Yes, they dealt with some injuries during the season but this team had a chance to be a Top 2 seed and it didn’t work out that way. The Bucks have the strongest chance of the lower seeds to pull an upset, in our opinion, and we think that they will keep this one close. Both of these clubs are going to feel each other out and concentrate on defense, which makes the points with the underdog more valuable since we are expecting a low-scoring game from two defensive-minded teams (both are in the Top 10 defensively). There may be some higher-scoring games later in the series but we think the bookies have posted too big a number here for how we expect this game to play out. The under is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings.

The Lakers are just 4-7 ATS this season as a favorite, and we think there is a great chance the Pelicans win this one straight up tonight. The two big stars for the Pelicans will be out tonight but this line is an overreaction because the Pelicans are probably still better than the Lakers even without Davis and Cousins. New Orleans is 16-5 ATS in the last 21 meetings in LA, and there aren’t many trends in the NBA stronger than that. LA plays at Golden State tomorrow night in their season finale and we think they will be more focused on that game where if they play well it will be a nice finale for the season for them. New Orleans has lost four straight but this is their last best chance for a win as they finish the season at Portland tomorrow.

The Hornets have lost four straight and this is their last game of the season, and we know this team does not want to end up with a five-game losing streak to end the season. That will be motivation tonight. Not sure if they will get the win, but they should play hard. And this seems like an inflated line. Charlotte has won and covered in all three meetings this season. This is also a letdown spot for Atlanta after one of their biggest wins in team history, coming back from 26 down against the Cavaliers last time out to win in OT. The Hawks have not been good as a big favorite this season and we see this one as a close game as the Hornets bring a lot of pride to the floor tonight in their last game.

Some players questionable on both sides but we think this is an inflated line to begin with and all the motivation lies with the road side tonight. After their loss last time out coupled with the Clippers win over the Spurs, this team is now tied with the Clips, who would get home-court advantage in their first-round playoff series unless the Jazz finish with a better record. Utah has the tougher remaining schedule, but with the Warriors locked into the No. 1 seed there is not as much motivation for the home team here. Utah has responded to bad losses well, going 8-2 ATS in their last 10 after losing by 10 or more points.

The Spurs were embarrassed by the Clippers last time out (at home no less) and after the game Coach Gregg Popovich said that there will be no rested players down the stretch. This team has flamed out in the playoffs the last couple seasons so we think they really try to build some momentum heading into the postseason. Even though the Spurs are locked into the No. 2 seed, you sense more urgency here at the end of the season than in the past for this team. With Denver’s loss on Sunday the Blazers are locked into the No. 8 seed. We think they will start focusing on the Warriors now and that makes the rest of the regular season meaningless to them.

The Bucks blew the Hornets out in Charlotte in the last meeting, late last month, and we think we could see the same result as these teams meet in Milwaukee. The Hornets have nothing to play for here and they have dropped three straight both SU and ATS as they just don’t look interested right now. The Bucks are still playing for seeding in the postseason so they should be uber motivated in this game. Kemba Walker, the best player for the Hornets, is listed as doubtful tonight. Just doubt that this team is going to rise up and play better than they have with their leader out, especially on the road. We think there is a good chance for a 10+-point blowout here.

We had the Wolves the last time these teams played in LA and that was one of the Lakers better games they have played in awhile and they won it in OT. Just don’t think that they will be able to put forth that kind of effort twice against the same team. This Lakers team doesn’t have much interest in winning out in the stretch run of the regular season. In fact, it benefits them to lose because of their tenuous hold on their upcoming draft pick, which would head to Philly if it’s outside the Top 3. Losing these last three games would give them a better chance to keep their pick, and that’s only if the Suns go on a winning streak to end the season. The Wolves are a team that wants to finish the season on a high note. Their recent games have included two against Portland and also Utah and Golden State on the road. They finish with OKC and Houston, so this is their last best chance for a big blowout road win.

Denver needs this game badly for any chance at the playoffs. It’s pretty much a must win. OKC is a pretty weak road team anyways but Denver has all the extra motivation here. Denver has been underrated a lot lately and this team has covered in four straight games, winning three of those. OKC has had their number lately but they have to play the Thunder twice in their last three games so they will be very focused on turning those trends around and they know they need to sweep them for any hope at the postseason. Not sure if that will happen but there’s a great chance they can win this one comfortably at home as the finale is at OKC.

We don’t make a habit of backing the Cavs at the betting window because this team has been overvalued by the oddsmakers for much of the season. We do think they have value with this short line on Sunday. These teams played on Friday and the Hawks won big in Cleveland. You could tell that Cleveland was really embarrassed by that defeat. When these home-and-home series happen in short succession then the team that lost the last game is normally a live play in the second game, and that is certainly the case tonight with a team as strong as the Cavs. We think we will see more of the team that blew out Boston than the one that lost to Atlanta last time out. Cleveland is 5-1 ATS in the last six in Atlanta and 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings overall.

This is just too many points. Yes, the Pelicans will be without Davis and Cousins. But Steph Curry will be resting during this game for the Warriors, and this will be Durant’s first game back for the Warriors. All Golden State wants to do is get him involved and ease him back into the rotation. Remember that this team took a long time to gel when Durant started at the beginning of the season and that is part of the reason this team was really lousy ATS for most of the start of the season. We just think the Warriors are more focused on getting Durant back integrated with the team than playing playoff-level basketball in this game and we will take this many points in almost any situation in an NBA game.

Both teams need this game. The Jazz have a one-game lead for the No. 4 spot in the Western Conference Playoffs over No. 5 LA Clippers. The Blazers are holding down the No. 8 spot, one game ahead of Denver. These teams met four nights ago and the Jazz won in a rout. But we think Portland will be primed for revenge here. First, they need this game more. Also, this team is much better at home than on the road and we think they play a much better game here. They have won and covered in six straight at home. They also had Friday off while the Jazz hosted Minnesota. Utah is 1-7-3 ATS in their last 11 in the second of a back-to-back and this team has not gotten the job done without rest lately.

The Clippers have won and covered in two of the last three meetings. They match up well against the Spurs and LA will have all the motivation tonight. They are one game behind the Jazz for home-court advantage in their probable first-round matchup of the playoffs. Utah has a tough one tonight at Portland so LA with a win here could gain some serious ground. The Spurs come in on a back-to-back and this team does not care much about the rest of the regular season as they are locked into the No. 2 seed in the West. The Spurs are 1-4 ATS in the second game of a back-to-back in their last five. We think LA goes all out for the win here and they have played well against the Spurs. They are averaging 121 PPG in their last four and are playing very well right now.

Denver is in a must-win position here. But they wouldn’t be in this position if they were a great team, and New Orleans would love to play the role of spoiler here on Friday. These teams played on Tuesday and Denver won a close one. When two teams play in close succession like this the team that lost is normally a live bet next time out, and we certainly think that’s the case tonight. New Orleans has been off since that game on Tuesday so they are well rested here and this will be the Nuggets third game in four nights. Just think the Pels are getting too many points here in what we view as a close game.

The Mavs are out of the playoff hunt but they will play hard tonight against their in-state rival while the Spurs have an eye on the playoffs as they are locked into the No. 2 seed so the rest of the regular season is meaningless to this team and the backups will be on full display tonight. Dallas has covered in three straight meetings in this series. This team has had a tough, road-heavy schedule lately and this is their last big home game of the season and they aren’t going to take it easy on the Spurs just because they are resting starters. We think they will be very motivated to get a win over the Spurs in front of the home fans to close the season.

The Grizzlies have lost three straight but this team has an easy schedule down the stretch and they will want to play well to get some momentum going heading into the playoffs. This one just screams blowout. The Knicks will be without all their stars tonight. They are 1-4 ATS in the last five meetings in this series, and the outlook for them tonight isn’t very good. They are coming in on the second of a back-to-back and this will be their third game in four nights. We just see this as a “get right” game for the home team and this one should not even be close.

These teams played three nights ago and the Blazers lost by one. They still covered, however, and they have now covered in six of their last seven games. We think this one will go the other way in Portland where the Blazers are a solid home team and the Wolves have proven to be very inconsistent on the road. Portland is currently holding down the No. 8 playoff spot and this team must continue to win if they are to make the postseason. They have been playing really well lately and we expect a big game tonight against a Timberwolves team that is just playing for pride. Portland has covered in six of the last eight meetings in this series!

Brooklyn is really playing their best basketball of the year down the stretch of the season and you can tell it’s important for the players on this team to finish the season on a positive note. They have covered four straight games and 13 of their last 17 games. We think they are underrated tonight. They have won three straight games, and one of those wins was by double-digits over Orlando in Brooklyn. Forget about revenge here, the Magic are more concerned about getting this season over with and we think revenge is the last thing on their minds. This team has given up an average of 121 points on defense in their last five games. That just shows that they don’t care as that is some of the most putrid defense the league has seen in awhile. Brooklyn put up 121 in the recent meeting and they scored 141 last time out against Philly and there is not much doubt that they will put up a massive number tonight.

The Bucks match up real well here as is evident by the fact that they have won and covered in all of the last three meetings. The Pacers have lost six of eight and this team is floundering down the stretch. They are now out of the current playoff picture in the East. Some might think they will give it their all tonight in order to make the playoffs, but their situation has been tenuous at best lately and they haven’t got the job done so what would make tonight different? The Bucks are the better team in this matchup and we think that this one is basically a coin flip as to who wins it so we have to take the points here as we expect a very close game.

The Grizzlies have covered in four of the last five meetings in this series here at home. They are also 4-0 ATS in their last four home games overall. The Thunder are a good team, no doubt, and Russell Westbrook would be a deserving MVP. But this team is just 16-21 on the road (SU and ATS). They are often overrated on the road and that seems like the case tonight as we thought that this line should be closer to 4.5. Memphis doesn’t play on the road again this regular season and they know that they need this game to make a push for the No. 6 seed to avoid the Spurs in the first round of the playoffs.

We just don’t have a lot of faith in Cleveland this season and we think they are susceptible to losing in the playoffs this year. This game might go a long way to deciding that outcome as these teams are tied atop the EC playoff heap, and the winner of this one has a good chance to claim the top seed. Boston comes into this one having had two nights off while the Cavs are on a back-to-back and will be playing their third game in four nights. Cleveland has covered in only one of the past five meetings in this series. The Cavs don’t seem to have the hunger they had last year and that fire can dim after winning a championship. The Celtics seem to have it this season, and this team is a serious threat in the East. Boston is 14-5 ATS as a favorite of less than 4.5 points, and we think they take care of business for a comfortable win tonight.

This is basically a must-win game for both teams who are just outside of the playoff picture in the East. Miami has the inside track as they are ½ game out of the No. 8 spot and the Hornets are 1.5 games behind them. Miami, however, has had two nights off heading into this one and the Hornets are on a back-to-back and will be playing their third game in four nights. That rest discrepancy is huge at this point in the season. Miami is coming off two home losses to better teams than this and they have had a couple days to think about things and get prepared for this important game and we think that they will win a close one here.

The Warriors are back to playing Golden State basketball and are the hottest team in the NBA right now. However, as this team has success the numbers rise for their games, and this is a very inflated number in our opinion. The Timberwolves have covered in eight of the last nine meetings. This team has some talent although they have been inconsistent. But they always seem to play well in this matchup and we think tonight will be the same. Minnesota actually has two wins in the last four meetings! Golden State is 19-28 ATS when laying double digit points this season and we think this is another overinflated line tonight.

Utah has a much better record than the Blazers this season but you have to remember that the Blazers got off to a horrible start this year but that they have been playing a lot better recently. These teams are not as far apart as these odds might have you believe. Portland has now covered in seven straight games and we think that they are getting too many points once again tonight. They are on a back-to-back here but we aren’t worried about that as they are 7-0 ATS in their last seven on the second night of a back-to-back. They have also covered in four of the last six meetings.

Brooklyn has been one of the best bets in the NBA lately and while bettor confidence is down on this team they have been playing very hard down the stretch. They have now covered in 12 of their last 16 games. And we think they are majorly underrated here. The Sixers have been one of the best ATS teams all season but they have slid back a bit and have covered only three of their last seven games (despite some generous lines). The Nets are 10-4 ATS this season on the road against a sub-.500 team and they are the squad that is playing with a lot of pride right now as the Sixers look more ready for the season to be over as their play has trailed off big time lately. Brooklyn has extra motivation here as well since the Sixers have won all three meetings this year and the Nets won’t want to be swept. Brooklyn also has a chance here for a rare three-game winning streak and this looks like a squad that will finish the season with some momentum. We also think this total is way too high as the Nets have been playing some pretty strong defense lately and we don’t see this as a shootout.

The Wizards were the hottest ticket in town for awhile but this team has trailed off as well and they have covered only three of their last 10 games. They are coming into this one off three straight losses and with non-covers in all three of those games. The Hornets have been a head-scratcher all season but this squad is finally playing to their potential and they have now covered in seven of their last nine. They are coming off a very impressive recent stretch that saw them with three straight, including road wins at OKC and Toronto. In fact, this team has three straight wins on the road. We think the Hornets have a great chance for the straight up win here.

The Hawks are just 2-6 since Paul Millsap went down with injury and although he is listed as questionable today, we have a hard time believing that he will be effective even if he does make it on the court. One of those losses was to this same Nets team, in Atlanta, in a 15-point blowout. That wasn’t a fluke as this Nets team is playing very hard down the stretch. They are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games and we think they have value again here as the home underdog on Sunday. Forget about the revenge factor here as the Hawks are just trying to get healthy and get in synch for the playoffs and they are not worried about revenge against the team with the worst record in the NBA.

The Pelicans are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games and this team has been underrated at home lately. The Bulls are in a tough spot here as they come in on the second night of a back-to-back and this will also be their third game in four nights. They played a hard-fought game against the Hawks last night and played and beat Cleveland on Thursday and now they have to travel on the road to play a Pelicans team that is an out-of-conference foe and that makes this a letdown spot. This line is big for a reason and we think there’s a great chance for the home team to earn a double-digit win on Sunday.

The Hornets have been back and forth most of the season but they are playing well right now and they have been underrated by the oddsmakers and have gone 6-2 ATS in their last eight games. OKC has covered only two of their last six games. The Hornets won the last meeting in this series by double digits back in January. The Hornets are two games out of the playoff picture in the east and this is basically a must-win game for them today. There is not the same urgency coming from the home side tonight as they are pretty much locked into the No. 6 in the west. We think this will be a very close game and have to take the points here.

The Blazers are playing as well as anyone in the league lately and we think they will win this one going away against a Suns team that is waiting for the offseason to begin. They just beat Houston on this same floor last time out by double digits so there’s no reason to believe that they can’t beat the Suns by even more. Portland has covered in five straight games, and this team is really clicking on offense. We don’t see the Suns doing anything special on defense tonight, and the Blazers have a great chance to put up 110+ or maybe even a lot more. We just don’t think that the Suns can keep up. Phoenix has Houston coming up at home on Sunday and they play the Warriors after that, and we would think they have their eyes on those games probably more than this road game against a middling WC team tonight.

Four of the last six meetings between these teams have gone under the posted total. The Hawks have averaged 97 points in their last two games, and those were against the Sixers and Suns, two teams that aren’t in the conversation among the best defensive clubs in the NBA. They will face a much tougher test tonight. They have now gone under in eight straight games, and the bookies are still posting too high lines for this team. The Bulls have been playing very good defense lately and we think they will hold the Hawks to a real low score here, covering ATS and keeping this one under the posted number. The under is 10-2 in the last 12 meetings in Chicago and 16-7 in the last 23 meetings overall.

The Clippers have covered in both of the last two meetings, both blowouts. The Lakers don’t have a lot of motivation here as they need to keep losing in order to have the best chance to keep their upcoming draft pick (if it’s in the Top 3). The Clippers have all the motivation in the world as they are currently 1.5 games behind Utah for the No. 4 seed and home-court advantage in their likely first-round playoff series. These teams played a couple weeks ago and the Clippers were up by as many as 37 in that game at one point. In garbage time the Lakers came back a little but still lost by 24. Not sure why this game would be any different Saturday afternoon.

Four of the last five meetings in this series have gone under the posted total. Detroit’s offense has gone into the doghouse lately. This team has gone under in eight of their last nine games and the main reason is their poor offensive play. They have surpassed the century mark only once in their last 10 games and on most nights they haven’t got anywhere near 100. They come in on a back-to-back tonight after scoring only 90 against a poor defensive team in Brooklyn. The Bucks are much better at defense, and we just don’t see how they will score more than that tonight. We have a good feeling this will be a blowout, so that would bode well for the under. Detroit averages less than 93 points on offense in the second night of a back-to-back and we think there is a good chance that they could wind up in the 80s tonight.

Dallas has covered in four of the last five meetings in this series. Even though the playoffs are now likely a pipe dream for the Mavs, we think they still have some fight in them and this line looks too big here on Friday. Even though Dallas has lost three of four they are 3-1 ATS in their last four and that shows that the lines are too big against this team. The Mavs got off to a slow start this season but they have been pretty good in the second half and these teams are not as far apart as their records may indicate. Marc Gasol is out tonight for the Grizzlies and we think this one is a close, low-scoring game.

The Pacers are one of the worst road teams ATS at 13-23, and they are in tough tonight. This line looks really short and we expect the home team to roll in this one. These teams met less than two weeks ago, on this same court, and the Raptors won by 25. They probably won’t score a win that big, but a win by 7+ is a safe bet. Indiana has been receiving some pretty generous lines yet they are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games. Toronto has won six of their last seven and they have covered in five of those games, and this team is rounding into playoff form right now. We think there is a good chance that this one could be a double-digit blowout.

The Clippers have a small margin of error for the rest of the regular season if they want to overtake Utah for the No. 4 seed and play their first-round series with home-court advantage. They are on a back-to-back but we think they will play well here. The Suns have stunk all season but they are even worse now and not only is Devin Booker questionable tonight but this team is far from the one that started the season as most of the key players are either injured or shut down for the season. LA goes for the season sweep here and all three wins were by double digits. LA’s defense should get the job done here and their offense should thrive against a team that plays poor defense.

These teams played about a week ago and the Lakers played a very rare hard-fought game and won it in OT at Staples Center. That sets up a nice revenge spot for the Wolves here, and despite their inconsistency they are the much better squad in this matchup. The Lakers don’t have a lot of motivation in this one. In fact, it’s quite the opposite as LA needs to keep losing to give themselves the best chance to keep their upcoming draft pick as long as it lands in the Top 3. Despite getting generous lines on a regular basis this team has been a nightmare to bet on. Minnesota hasn’t performed well against a road-heavy schedule, but they got a big win last time out at Indiana and that positive momentum should continue here on Thursday.

Brooklyn is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings in this series and you just have to think that Detroit is laying too many points in this game. Detroit hasn’t lived up to expectations this season – nowhere close, actually. They have covered in only two of their last nine games and this team just plays to the level of competition on a nightly basis. Brooklyn has been playing hard despite a lack of talent and they have covered five of their last nine, so you can tell which team in this matchup is the overvalued one. The Nets are 9-4 ATS on the road against sub-.500 teams, where they normally are getting too many points. That seems to be the case tonight as well.

The Clippers blew a late lead last time out against the Kings and had a head-scratching loss at home. That ups the urgency for this game since the Clippers are still behind the Jazz for the coveted No. 4 spot in the playoff seedings and at least one series at home. This Wizards defense has been atrocious lately and they have given up 110+ a bunch lately. The Clippers have at least been playing strong defense their last few games and after an off offensive game last time out we are confident that they will have a strong game on offense against this Wizards team that hasn’t been protecting the basket. Even though the Wizards played in this building last night, this is still a back-to-back and we think it’s a bad spot for the visiting team.

We think this is a bad spot for the Warriors, coming off a real tough road game last night in Houston and now playing in an even tougher venue on a back-to-back against a much better team. The Spurs blew out the Warriors early in the season and they won the second game too even though it was mainly the backups for both teams competing. But it seems like the Spurs are taking this regular season a lot more seriously after flaming out in the playoffs last year while the Warriors are taking the regular season less seriously after they ran out of steam in the playoffs last year. The Spurs want this one more tonight, and they are rested and ready.

Miami is in a tough spot here. This will be their third road game in four nights and they played the Celtics and Pistons before this, so you can’t help but think this is a letdown spot. The Heat are just 5-8 SU on the second night of a back-to-back and we think they are giving up too many points tonight. New York hasn’t been playing particularly well lately but they have had a tough schedule that has been road-heavy. We think they have an excellent chance to win this game, and they should come in with confidence after a win vs. the Pistons last time out. Just think that this one is a coin flip as to who the SU winner is so we have to take the generous points here.

Philly is the top ATS team in the NBA for a reason, and that reason is by performing well in games like this. The Hawks come in on a back-to-back after a four-point home win against the horrible Suns last night. The Hawks have not been good since Paul Millsap went down and they are just 1-5 since he was injured. He won’t be back for a couple games. Philly is 15-2 ATS in their last 17 home games and that is one of the strongest trends in the NBA right now. We love them tonight at home against a struggling team on a back-to-back. Philly played last night, too, but they are at home here and that gives them a big advantage and they are also 7-1 ATS in their last eight second games on a back-to-back.

Denver has covered in three of the last four meetings, and the one game in that series of games that they didn’t cover was the one they lost by two in overtime as a 1.5-point underdog. The Nuggets are playing well on an almost nightly basis lately and they have covered in seven of their last nine games. This team isn’t flashy and doesn’t reel in the general betting public so they can keep their betting value despite covering a lot of games like they have recently and we certainly think that is the case tonight as we expect them to win here. Portland has been playing well too but their recent record has mostly been pumped up by beating up on cupcakes. Denver definitely has more quality wins lately. We think this is a good spot for them for another quality win tonight.

The Pistons have covered in five of the last eight meetings in this series. Detroit has only one win in their last eight games but this team stinks on the road and they have played a road-heavy schedule lately and the home games they have had have been tough (they lost to Utah and Toronto in consecutive games). And tonight they play a team that is less strong than those opponents and the line is about the same for what Detroit was getting against Utah and Toronto, which means this team is getting more value in the line than usual tonight. Detroit is a very good home team and the Heat are bad on the road. Recent results aside, we think this is a good spot for the home team to get a win tonight.

Looks like the Wolves have thrown in the towel on the season as this team is barely competitive right now and they have lost six straight games both SU and ATS despite some very favorable lines. This line is more than fair for the home team. Indiana is really good at home at 26-11 and they will face an opponent tonight that has won only 10 all season on the road. Why would the Wolves play better than they have lately in this one, against an out-of-conference opponent? Doesn’t seem likely. Minnesota is 0-6 ATS in their last six road games and they have covered in only 2 of the last 7 games in Indiana. The Pacers have been inconsistent lately but this looks like a game that they can win pretty comfortably.

The Thunder are just not a good road team at 14-21 on the season and we think that the wrong team is favored tonight. Dallas hasn’t been playing all that great but they have had an incredibly hard schedule so far on this homestand with games against the Warriors, Clippers and Raptors. They got only one win there (against LA), but they have their most winnable game on this homestand tonight in our opinion. Dallas is 3.5 games out of the No. 8 playoff spot in the west (thanks mostly to a lousy start to the season), and they have to win this one big time if they have any hopes of the postseason. We think they will be hungry tonight and win against an overrated OKC squad.