Sports Picks & Predictions

We went against the Bulls last night and that didn’t work out. They won their seventh in a row, and in blowout fashion, against Orlando. For whatever reason this team, which looked like the clear-cut worst team in the NBA before the season started, has put it together with great coaching and solid team-oriented basketball. Just have to love getting double-digit points here with this team tonight as good as they have been lately. The Bulls have covered in eight of the last nine meetings and this team normally gets up to play Cleveland no matter the circumstance, so we don’t think the back-to-back will hurt them too much tonight. The Cavs are one of the worst teams to bet on in the entire NBA year in and year out as they face inflated spreads by the oddsmakers and they don’t care much about the regular season and tend to do just enough to win but not always cover the line.

The Blazers have won and covered two straight in this series. This team has been kind of under the radar for awhile as they have been on a long road trip and they have earned mixed results as far as straight up wins go. But when you look at their recent ATS results you see that they are 6-0 ATS in their last six, so they are underestimated by the oddsmakers right now. And that looks true again tonight as they are only slight favorites against a Spurs team that has been very shaky on the road and will be without Leonard tonight.

Denver has had a road-heavy schedule lately and they have been kind of a forgotten team after some mixed results on the road. But tonight they are back at home where they are one of the best in the NBA on their home court. They are 11-2 at home while the Wolves are a paltry 7-7 on the road. Denver has covered in five of the last seven meetings in this series and we expect them to win this one comfortably tonight as the Wolves have been very inconsistent away from home. Denver is 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games and we expect that trend to hold weight again tonight.

The Bulls are one of the hottest teams in the NBA and out of nowhere this team has won six straight. Any team can get hot at any time in the NBA as these are some of the most talented basketball players in the world even though some teams have less supreme talent than others. But now the Bulls are in the role of a big favorite against a team that is probably a bit better than them. Even with the six-game winning streak the Bulls are only 9-20, and when all is said and done this team will have one of the worst records in the NBA. We just think this is too many points for a team like Chicago to be laying tonight.

Brooklyn is in the Top 4 this season for NBA ATS teams and we think this is a good spot for them tonight. Brooklyn has a strong history in this series as they are 7-1 in the last eight meetings at home and they are the much stronger team in this matchup. Brooklyn has lost three straight but they have had a pretty tough schedule lately and we think they will use this chance against an inferior opponent for a big win here on Wednesday night. This is the final game of a four-game road trip and we think the Kings will be ready to go home after this one.

We went with the Hornets last time out against the Knicks and were very impressed with the way they played and we will back them here as this is a team that has some talent and they started off the season slow but this might be time for a surge and they certainly will not get any love from the oddsmakers as this is a team that the public hates to bet on even when they play well. And we certainly think that they are getting a good line tonight as we had this game at pickem so there is nice value here for the home underdog in a game we expect to be close and it could go either way as to who wins straight up. Charlotte has covered in three of the last four meetings.

The Bucks are a team that doesn’t always play to their potential this season but they should be sharp and focused here on Tuesday night. The Bucks have lost three straight, including one to the suddenly-hot Bulls. A three-game losing streak is bad. But a four-game losing streak is panic time. They would be hyped for this game anyways but there is a lot more on the line tonight as this team needs to get back on a winning streak. The Cavs are one of the hottest teams in the NBA right now but this team is notoriously bad against the spread and this season is no different at 11-19-1 ATS. They are overvalued again tonight.

The Warriors are banged up right now but this is still a very good team and much better than the Lakers even with these key players out. They still have Durant and Thompson and they have a lot of other nice pieces. The Lakers are retiring Kobe Bryant’s jerseys tonight and that could be a distraction for the home club. Golden State is 13-6 ATS in the last 19 meetings and even though the Lakers have been down for a couple years other teams still want to win at Staples Center and we think the Warriors bring their best effort tonight.

We will go with the hot team here with the home underdog as the Bulls have won five straight while the Sixers have lost five of six. Chicago is playing great team basketball and strong defense and they are obviously better than most of us thought as this winning streak is no joke. Their last three opponents are likely playoff clubs. Philly has playing OT games in their last two contests and this is a lone road game sandwiched between home games and we don’t think this is a good spot for the road club tonight.

The Hawks are only 6-23 SU but they are 15-13-1 ATS and that shows us this is a team that is better than the oddsmakers think and also a team that plays hard most nights to keep games close. The Hawks have had two nights off while Miami will be playing its third game in four nights and they have Boston on deck after the night off Tuesday so they could very well be in a letdown spot here. Atlanta has won only two of their last nine games but they are 7-2 ATS during that span but this is a game we think they can actually win straight out.

Porzingis is questionable here and likely won’t be near 100% if he does play with a sore knee. The Knicks have won four straight and the Hornets have lost three straight so this line looks a little fishy. But Charlotte has had a much tougher schedule and we think this is a good spot for them to get back on the winning track. New York has played really well at home but they are just 2-8 on the road this season and we think that the Hornets will roll to a comfortable win tonight as they will be playing with purpose.

The Celtics have become overvalued and they are not playing their best basketball of the season right now. In fact, they have covered in only three of their last nine games. The Pacers have been very strong at home this season at 10-6 and Boston has a bullseye on their backs now and they will probably get the best effort from their opponents almost every night, especially on the road. The Pacers have been playing well above expectations this season and we think they have a good chance for the straight up win here.

The Cavs seem to run hot and cold ATS and they are cold now as they have failed to cover in three straight and five of six overall. Washington has been cold ATS but they had the night off on Saturday while the Cavs are coming in on a back-to-back and this will be their third game in four nights, and it’s always tough to play a good team on the road in that situation. We think that this is a great spot to back the home team and we are confident they will win this one comfortably tonight.

The Kings have covered in four of the last five meetings and we think that they are getting too many points tonight. Sacramento has covered in four of their last six games and they have been playing pretty well overall. One of those last non-covers as last time out as the Kings got blown out in Minnesota. That was a game the Kings did not show up for so we expect a much better effort here and we think Sacramento can keep this one within double digits.

Houston is playing as well as any team in the NBA right now and we don’t think the Bucks will be able to match up with them tonight. Both teams are coming in on a back-to-back but Houston was home last night and they get to stay at home here while the Bucks had to make the long road trip to Texas. That’s not to mention that the Rockets made it look easy in beating the Spurs last night while the Bucks lost to lowly Chicago at home. Houston is in much better form right now and this is an easy call tonight.

The Suns were already a very thin team talent-wise and were down Devin Booker already and now Tyson Chandler might be out here as well. With the Bulls playing well lately this Suns team may be fielding the weakest lineup in the NBA tonight. This looks like a real good spot for the Timberwolves to shine. They beat a much better team in the Kings on Thursday by 20+ and we think they could lay down a similar beatdown tonight. The Wolves are 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings between these teams in Minnesota and we think that the Wolves match up real well in this game and we expect them to shine tonight.

The Cavs had the night off last night while the Jazz are coming in on a back-to-back after a big game against Boston last night and now this will be their third game in four nights. To make matters worse, they will be without Rudy Gobert tonight. This team gets the job done with defense but with such a brutal recent schedule we don’t think they will have the energy to stop the Cavs high-octane offensive attack.

The Nets are the No. 3 ATS team in the entire league at 17-10. They have been great as a big underdog this season as they are 7-1 ATS when getting seven or more points. This is a team that can hold betting value every night as they don’t have any stars and are well below .500 on the W/L record but this team plays hard almost every night and they have some underrated talent on the court. They come in on a back-to-back tonight but they are 3-1 ATS in these situations this season and this is a young and athletic team so we aren’t worried about the lack of rest and after a poor performance last night we think they will want to play much better here tonight.  Toronto has dropped four of their last six ATS and they have struggled to cover as a double-digit favorite as they are just 1-3 ATS in this role in 2017.

We think that “revenge” is one of the more overrated NBA handicapping angles. However, when the teams played recently we do think that it comes into play. And these teams played less than a week ago in LA with the Clippers scoring a one-point win. They needed a three in the last 10 seconds for the win and there was also some controversy with the clock on the Wizards last possession so we have no doubt that they remember that game. The Wizards should have John Wall back here as he missed the last meeting and that will be a big improvement for this Wizards team. Washington had a slow start in that last meeting but they outplayed the Clippers in the second half and we think they will put forth a more complete performance here at home on Friday night.

We thought the Pistons were just in a slump against a tough schedule then they were blown out of the water at home against Boston and then they had a really embarrassing home blowout loss to the Nuggets last time out and this team just is not playing well right now. Atlanta has covered in five of the last eight meetings in this series. They have been a covering machine as of late as they have covered in four straight games and in six of their last seven. This team is playing hard almost every night and we have no doubt they will be amped to have the Pistons in town tonight and Detroit might be more focused on a tougher opponent in the Pacers, who they travel to play on the road tomorrow night.

These teams played late last month in Utah and the Jazz won by 30. We don’t think that the change in venue will matter much here. Utah has lost three straight and the Bulls have won three straight but that doesn’t mean much to us for handicapping this game as the Jazz had a much tougher schedule. The Bulls destroyed Boston last time out but every team takes a night off now and again and we don’t give the Bulls too much credit for that win. The Jazz are the much better team in this matchup and after such a tough slate of games they should be very motivated to get back on track against what is probably the worst team in the NBA this season.

OKC is one of the worst ATS teams in the league this season and it is looking more and more every game like this Big 3 experiment in Oklahoma City may not work. This will be Paul George’s return to Indiana and he won’t get a pleasant welcome back from the fans or his old team. Right now the Pacers are actually the better team and they will be ultra motivated tonight while the Thunder are just still trying to figure things out and won’t take this game as seriously. OKC won early in the season but things are a bit different now and Indiana has been nearly unbeatable on their home court (10-4) while the Thunder can’t get anything going on the road (3-9). This spread is giving the Thunder too much credit on name alone.

The Spurs have just not been good on the road this season and they are 6-6 so far and an even worse 4-8 ATS away from home. Leonard is expected to return tonight for his season debut after missing the first 27 games of the season. He won’t be in midseason form and he won’t get a lot of minutes right off the bat. For his first couple games back he may hurt the team more than help it until he gets back into game shape and gels with his teammates. We expect this to be a close game as the Mavs have covered in five of the last six meetings.

The Lakers have won two straight impressive road games but we think they are getting overrated tonight by the oddsmakers as a result. The fact is that this team is just 4-8 on the road even after those two wins and tonight they face a Knicks team that has been incredible at home at 12-5 both SU and ATS. They are also 5-1 ATS as a small favorite this season and we think that they will win this game pretty comfortably tonight. The Knicks have covered in four of six and this team seems to be continually underrated by the bookies at home.

The Pistons have lost six straight, but they had probably the toughest schedule anyone could possibly play during that stretch. They played well enough to win in at least half of those games. This is the weakest team they have played during this stretch and we think they go all out to get back on the winning track tonight. Detroit won and covered both games last season and this Pistons team is a better club this year. Both wins were by 10+ points. They have covered in 10 of the last 14 meetings between these teams in Detroit. The Pistons are still one of the best ATS teams in the league and we think they flex their muscles tonight against an inferior opponent.

The Clippers D has been terrible recently and they have allowed 112+ in five of their last six games and their best defensive performance during that stretch was giving up 108 in Dallas. That does not bode well tonight against a Toronto team that is in mid-season form offensively. Toronto has averaged 117 PPG in their last six and we don’t see any way the Clippers slow them down tonight. The Raptors have covered in six straight meetings in this series.

The Raptors are playing as well as any team in the NBA right now having won nine of their last 11. They have covered in six of their last 10 but they had a couple recent games where they just missed the cover. This team looks better than the Raptors squad that we saw the last couple years and this team could be a legit NBA Finals contender if other top clubs in the east can’t stay healthy. We think that this team will keep up their hot play today against an overmatched Sacramento squad. The Kings are at home but this start time does them no favors as it is a very early start California time and we think that plays to the Raptors advantage. This is the first game back home after a long road trip for the Kings and that can be a bad omen for a bad team like this as they often can’t keep their focus on the game when they have other life stuff to take care of. And the fact that they got a big win last time at New Orleans (in OT no less) might make this team feel like they have done their work for the weekend and that they won’t give full effort here. Toronto averages about 15 points more per game than do the Kings on offense and we just don’t think they can keep up with a Toronto team that looks really focused right now and is rounding into mid-season form.

The Jazz have lost two straight and we think they make it three in a row tonight. Milwaukee is coming in on a back-to-back but they are 8-2-1 ATS in these situations lately and we think they will be fine after barely breaking a sweat last night vs. Dallas last night. After a slow start the Bucks have won five of six with their lone loss coming at Boston. They are starting to play as well as we expected them to and we think that this line is short tonight as we had this one handicapped at -4.5 with a lean to the home team at that number. We expect a low-scoring game here and the Bucks will separate themselves in the fourth quarter for the win by 5+.

These teams played on Wednesday but in a strange scheduling quirk the Magic hosted Denver (while getting run out of the building) while the Hawks had the night off. That sets up a big revenge spot here as the Hawks lost in Orlando in overtime and now they are the rested team while Orlando comes in on a back-to-back after getting embarrassed on Friday. Atlanta is 6-2 ATS against their last eight opponents with a losing record and we think they are in a much better position for a big performance tonight than is Orlando.

The Clippers are getting used to life without Blake Griffin and we think they will play well in this Saturday matinee. The Wizards are in the midst of a road trip and this will be their third straight away from home while the Clippers have had two days off and they had two days off before that so they are very well rested here and with Gallinari back we think that this squad has a good chance to win here straight up. Getting the points is just a bonus.

Boston is 10-2 ATS on the road this season and this is a team you can really trust away from home. They are also a better team than the Spurs at this point in time. The Celtics are a perfect 5-0 ATS when getting points this season and we expect them to take care of business and win this game outright. These are two of the best defensive teams in the league and this should be a close game and in the fourth quarter every possession will be contested. These teams met in October and the total went just above 200 but these defenses are in midseason form now and this will be a tight game but in the end we have to go with the Celtics as we know they want this one really bad and their defense should go all out to win a low-scoring game here.

Memphis has covered only one of the last five meetings between these teams, and this is the worst version of the Grizzlies that Toronto has seen during that time. We took the Grizzlies against Minnesota a couple games ago as they were desperate for a win and they got it against the Wolves but then they had a big letdown the next game out in getting blown out at the Knicks. Now they face a much better team in the Raptors tonight. We are super impressed with the play of Toronto this year as they have adapted their style and are getting great ball movement on offense. This is the first game of Toronto’s four-game road trip and we know they will want to get off to a good start here against a floundering team that is also one of the worst ATS teams in the NBA.

Detroit has lost four straight but three of those losses were very respectable and those were all on the road. Now they are back home where they are 8-2 on the season. This is the second meeting this season between these teams and the Pistons already won in the Bay Area in October as part of their 15-7-2 ATS record. Detroit is Top 3 ATS this season and this team seems to love the big matchups as they have beaten a lot of top teams this season. Golden State is a very good team even without Curry but they have had a pretty easy run of it on their current road trip and we expect this team to face a bit of adversity tonight.

Utah is 11-4 ATS at home this season and they are undervalued again tonight. The Jazz are coming off a road loss at OKC but this team won six straight before that, with five coming on this same court. This team has one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA and this is a very good team this season even after losing Gordon Hayward. Houston has won seven straight but this team has had a real easy schedule lately. This is the toughest game they will have played in their last eight games. The Jazz have scored 110+ in five of their last seven games and this is an offense that can hang with the Rockets and keep up with their pace. We think both teams will get their points and we expect a close, high-scoring game here on the TNT nightcap.

The Lakers have lost five straight but they have had three nights off before this game and we think that they will be primed for a strong showing here on Thursday night. These teams played in LA last month and we thought the Lakers matched up pretty well and they were up heading into the fourth quarter but ended up losing by six. With the extra rest coming into this game we think they will play well again and this seems like an inflated line as we had this one at 6.5 so getting this one on the other side of the key NBA betting number of 7 provides some nice value for this TNT matchup as we expect a close, hard-fought game.

Detroit has lost three straight so they will be very keen on getting back on the winning track tonight. If you look at those losses, though, you will see that there was only one bad loss, and that was to the Wizards in a game that they did not play well. The next night they were on a back-to-back in Philly and they led entering the fourth quarter but ran out of gas late. Then they led the Spurs almost all game and San Antonio hit some nice shots late to score a three-point win even though the Pistons covered. Now Detroit is on the last leg of their 4-game road trip which makes this game even more important as if they win here tonight they will come out of this trip without many worries but if they lose all four of their games then this was just a disastrous road trip. We think they give max effort here. We expect a real close game here and we had this spread closer to pick’em. Milwaukee has won four of six but if you look at their schedule they needed OT to get by Phoenix then they won a home and away against Sacramento. Those are two of the five worst teams in the NBA. And they also won at Portland, which is their only recent quality win. Detroit has covered the last three in this series and the games have all been pretty competitive. We see this as a game that will be close again but we think the Pistons have the more complete team right now and they will be extra motivated in this game. We think that they pull out a close one tonight on the road.

We always like to take a team that is coming off an embarrassing loss because these players are pros and they will give a much better effort the next time out. The Wizards were on the wrong end of one of the biggest blowouts of the season as they lost last night by 47 points in Utah. That came after playing almost a perfect game at home in their own blowout win over Detroit even with John Wall sidelined. They are going to give a much better effort here and we are sure of that. Portland has lost two straight, both at home, and this team is just 7-6 at home this season and that is just one more win than the Wizards have on the road. And while we think revenge is mostly an overrated handicapping philosophy we do think it comes into play and the Blazers won in Washington last week and we think that maybe last night in Utah that they were looking ahead to this matchup. We also expect a low-scoring game, which makes the points for the underdog all the more valuable.

The Suns are running on fumes here tonight as they are on the last game of a six-game road trip and come in on a back-to-back. They won in Philly last night in a big surprise and they also played Boston real tough but now this is their third game in four nights and we don’t think they will have much left here. Toronto is playing extremely well and they have won seven of their last nine games. Toronto is 7-3 ATS when laying six or more points this season so this is a team that you can trust when laying a big number as they tend to beat up on bad teams. The Suns are just in a very bad spot tonight and we think this will be a very ugly game for the visiting team that could lose by as many as 20 points tonight.

Detroit is one of the best ATS teams in the league at 14-7-1 on the season and even though they have lost two straight we think they will be primed for a big bounce-back performance here. Detroit is 5-2 ATS on the road against winning teams. They have some big wins this season on the road as they beat OKC, Boston and Golden State already this season. We think that not only will they be primed to end this two-game slide but they want to put another feather in their collective cap by beating a top team on the road. We think the Pistons are absolutely legit this season and since this team doesn’t have big stars and is not a team with recent success that they will hold their betting value despite some major ATS success already this season.

Memphis is on a long losing streak. This isn’t a team like the Bulls or Suns; this is actually a decent squad that is just in a slump. And we think they will play hard until they end this losing streak so we could see some value in their numbers as they get bigger and bigger. We definitely think there is value here getting the points at home against a Minnesota team that is on a back-to-back after beating the Clippers on Sunday (in a game where they did not cover). But this team is inconsistent and they normally follow up a win with a loss as this team has not been able to build any positive momentum. Minnesota is 4-11 ATS in the last 15 games in Memphis and we think the home team has a very strong chance to end the losing streak tonight.

We were on the Pistons last night and they put forth an embarrassing performance but we think that we will see a much better effort from them here on Saturday. Last night they were beaten in almost every aspect by a Wizards team that was missing John Wall but they just took the night off there and this team is much better than that. This team has been one of the Top 3 clubs in the Eastern Conference and they are one of the best ATS teams on the season. We really like them getting this many points against a team that while improved is still a work in progress and we think that the Pistons are the more complete ballclub right now. Plus Detroit has revenge as they lost to Philly as one of their seven losses on the season (in October).

The Clippers are a mess right now and wrought with injuries but we don’t think the Mavs should be favored by this many over anyone. The Clippers are a better team even with this depleted roster. LA played well against Utah last time out before a late collapse but in their second game sans Blake Griffin we think they will put together a more complete game. Dallas has been favored only three times this season and they have failed to cover in any of those games. They are 1-7 ATS at home against teams with a losing record. We think that this is a very winnable game for the road team and we expect them to go all out for the win since those are going to be harder and harder for the Clippers to get this season with all the injuries holding them back. We also expect this one to be pretty low scoring as the Mavs don’t have a very strong offense.

The Spurs are just 10-10-1 ATS this season and this team is not playing championship-caliber basketball at the moment. Leonard is out and this team has struggled to meet expectations with their star out. San Antonio is 4-5 on the road this season SU and 2-7 ATS. This is the second game of a home-and-home as these teams played in San Antonio on Wednesday with the Spurs capturing a nine-point win. But it’s hard for the same team to win the second game in these situations, especially when the second game is a road contest. The Grizzlies have dropped nine straight so they will be very desperate for a win, and we think with the last meeting being just a couple days ago that familiarity will give them a chance to succeed here. We think they will get the job done via defense. The Grizzlies can’t score much but they can play defense when motivated, and we think that will be the case tonight. The Spurs, of course, always play strong D and we think both teams will grind it out in this game. And a low-scoring game makes the underdog more attractive. Memphis has covered four of the last five meetings in this series at home.

Love the Pistons as a slight road favorite in this spot. The Wizards are banged up. John Wall is out here and Bradley Beal is nursing an eye injury and is questionable for this game. Beyond those two guys the Wizards are a pretty weak squad. This is a team to fade until Wall returns. On the other side is the Pistons, who have been probably the biggest surprise of the season so far. This team has been teetering on the edge of being a contender for the last couple years but they finally have put it together this year. They are 14-6 SU and 14-5-1 ATS so when they win they normally cover, and we expect them to get the win tonight and easily cover this short line. Detroit is 5-0 ATS on the road against teams with a winning record!

The Clippers are in real trouble. Now that Blake Griffin is out a couple months with an ankle injury they are now down another starter after two other starters are out injured. Griffin was basically carrying the team up to this point and they don't have a lot to get excited about now that he is out of the lineup. DeAndre Jordan is a nice complimentary piece but he's not the type of player that will put his team on his back and wins games by himself. This looked like a lost season even with Griffin in the lineup but now with him out two months or more this team might be looking at a high draft pick in the offseason. The Jazz have won four of five and they are starting to play very well despite some injuries. This team already had the Clippers number even with a complete roster (4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in LA) but we expect this one to be all Jazz on Thursday night. The Clippers are getting too much credit by the oddsmakers because of two nights rest and home court, but we think the Jazz are the clear play here. We also expect a low-scoring game here.

The Sixers are a bit banged up right now but we think that this line is too large on Thursday. Philly is 7-2 ATS this season as an underdog so getting this many points is very attractive tonight. Philly has also covered in four of the last five meetings and they have not lost by more than 10 in any of those games. Boston has lost two of their last four so they aren’t in the best form right now after the long winning streak. The Sixers play hard almost every night and you know that they want to play well here on the road against this opponent. We expect a very close game here.

We like to back good teams coming off a bad loss and the Thunder certainly fit the bill here as they were blown out in Dallas last time out after a one-point home loss to the Pistons. They have had three days off to lick their wounds and regroup and we think they will be focused and ready at Orlando tonight. Orlando has lost nine straight games and they have covered only one in their last six. The Magic are just 3-6 ATS when getting six or fewer points as a dog. This is a team we look to bet on when getting big points but this is too few points tonight against a Thunder team that will come in anxious for a big performance.

The Kings are playing pretty well lately. They have failed to cover the line in only one of their last six games (one push). They are coming in with a lot of confidence after beating Golden State last night, even though the Warriors were missing some key players. But they are now 6-3 ATS at home and we think they will be competitive here tonight. The Bucks have covered only one of their last five and they continue to be overvalued.

The Heat are very good on the road as they are 6-4 thus far this season, and that is the same record that the Cleveland Cavaliers have at home. The Cavs are on a big winning streak but this team is still overvalued nighty and we think that they are giving too many points tonight. They enter on a back-to-back after a big win against Philly last night. But Cleveland is just 1-11 ATS as a favorite of three or more points this season. We think that this will be a close game and that the underdog has a chance for the straight up win.

These are two of the best teams in the Eastern Conference and two of the best betting teams as well. But we think the Celtics are on another level above Detroit and we think that they will be very motivated in this game tonight. Boston is 18-3 this season straight up. They are 17-3-1 ATS. That means that most often when they win that they win by enough to cover the number. And we expect that to be the case tonight. The big Celtics winning streak ended last Wednesday in Miami. You expect for a team to lose after that long winning streak to let down in the following games but the Celtics did not miss a beat and earned two blowout wins and covers in their next two games. The Pistons are coming off a big road win in OKC but they have lost three of their last five overall and they got blown out in Cleveland against a team that is not as good as this Celtics club this season. This is the start of a homestand for the Celtics and we think that they will want to get off to a strong start and flex their muscles a bit against one of their main contenders in the East.

The Grizzlies have not been playing well and have dropped seven straight. But they have had a pretty tough schedule overall and this should be a good “get right” game for them on Sunday night. Brooklyn is only 2-7 on the road this season and after playing tough against teams like Golden State and Cleveland lately we doubt they bring their A Game tonight against a lesser opponent. This line has been overadjusted but we expect Memphis to come out hungry here and we think that they win this one by 7+ points.

The Spurs have not played well on the road this season but they have a great chance to start to turn that trend around here on Saturday night against a fatigued Hornets team. This Charlotte squad is coming in on a back-to-back after losing a one-point heartbreaker in Cleveland last night. They had Thanksgiving off but they played Wednesday night and went to OT in that game. That makes this a big letdown spot for a weary team. The Spurs have had two nights off to stew about their last game, a huge blowout loss in New Orleans. Because they were so bad that night we have a feeling this team will come out strong here and bring their A Game to try and put that bad loss in the rearview mirror. Nic Batum missed the game last night for the Hornets and he is questionable here and if he is out or not at 100% then that makes this Charlotte team much weaker as he is a key piece for this squad. The Spurs are 5-1 ATS as a small favorite this season (4.5 or fewer points) and we think that this is a great spot for them to bounce back against a tired team.

This Detroit team is one of the most undervalued clubs in the NBA this season. They are 11-5-1 ATS on the year and we think they are getting too many points once again tonight. The Pistons have dropped three of four but they did not embarrass themselves in any game except the last one, a home blowout vs. Cleveland. That was their last game and that was on Monday so they have had plenty of time to relax and regroup and we think they will come into this matchup with something to prove. And since they are 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings in this series that shows us that they normally bring their A Game against the Thunder. OKC is coming off their biggest win of the season in blowing out the Warriors at home. We think that makes this a letdown spot against an out-of-conference opponent. And that this one is coming right after the Thanksgiving holiday and two days after their win over Golden State makes this even more of a letdown spot. OKC has been pretty average this season overall. They are still a work in progress. We expect a real close game here and a Detroit straight up win would not be shocking.

Boston is clearly one of the best teams in basketball and one of the best teams in the east. But they can't win every game this season and they definitely won't cover every one, especially with their recent lines going sky high. They lost last time out and now that the winning streak is over this team will probably take their foot off the gas a bit. Orlando is a decent squad this season and they are finally getting healthy. They are 6-3 ATS on the road this season and this team is normally undervalued on the road where they usually get big points. Actually this team is 5-1 ATS when getting five or more points this season and they are 6-3-1 ATS on the road. We think that the Thanksgiving holiday might be a distraction to the Celtics and they could come into this one unfocused and the young guys on the Magic will definitely want to play well here. We think that they can keep this one within the big line.

We like to back the Warriors in situations where they are ultra motivated. And that should be the case tonight as Golden State and Kevin Durant travel back to visit his old team, the Thunder. Golden State has covered in seven straight meetings in this series. The last four wins have all been by more than 15 points. This team always has an “us against the world” mentality and Durant’s teammates will want to step it up for him on what is now enemy territory. OKC is 1-6 ATS this season against teams with a winning record. We think that this team will be good come playoff time but they are still working things out and trying to gel as a team while the GSWs are the complete package right now.

Brooklyn has covered in all of the last three meetings and we think that they are once again getting too many points in this matchup. The Cavs have been just horrible as a big favorite this season and they are 1-9 ATS when laying three points or more. Brooklyn is a perfect 3-0 ATS when getting eight or more points this season. The Cavs are coming off a rare blowout win but this team is just not beating teams badly this season and even though they have sometimes mixed results the Nets seem to come to play every night. They seem to really get up for this opponent and we have a feeling they will make it four straight covers against the Cavs tonight.

This is too many points for a team like the Lakers to be laying against anyone. Even though the Lakers have stunk for the last couple years they can still be a public team, and as the lone game in the NBA on Tuesday against one of the dregs of the Eastern Conference we think that this line is inflated a bit. The Bulls have been pretty good when getting big points like this as they are 6-4 when getting six or more points. The Lakers have only laid a line in this big of a range once, a few nights ago vs. Phoenix, and they lost straight up as 7.5-point favorites. Chicago has covered five of the last seven meetings and we think that this is a very winnable game for a team that won’t collect many Ws on the season.

The Clippers are in their biggest slide in years as they have lost eight straight entering this game. But this is just a much better team than the Knicks despite the recent results and we have to be happy laying this small number here on Monday night. LA played pretty well at Cleveland the other night, losing in OT, and then they were awful in the back-to-back at Charlotte. But they had Sunday off to regroup and we think they will be very motivated to get back on the winning track here. They have a very favorable upcoming schedule and they can start to turn this thing around tonight. They should get P. Beverley back tonight and he will be a sparkplug on defense. LA is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings in NY and 6-2 in the last eight meetings overall.

These teams have identical 10-5 records on the season but Detroit is 10-4-1 ATS while the Wolves are just 8-6-1. We think the Pistons have been undervalued by the oddsmakers and we think that is the case here tonight as we had this line at 4 with a strong lean to the road team at that number. Detroit has dominated this series the last couple years, winning and covering in five straight matchups. They have lost two straight coming into this one. The first was at Milwaukee, a very strong team in their own right. The second was at Indiana, and they blew a big lead in that one as the home team got momentum in the fourth quarter. We will forgive them for that slip up and back them here as they want to come away from this road trip with something to show for it and they will go all out for the win tonight.

Atlanta has a lot better ATS record (7-7-1) than they do SU record (3-12) and that is what we look for in a home underdog against a “buzz” team like the Celtics that are on a massive winning streak and just beat the world champs last time out. Atlanta always plays tough in this series and they have actually covered in five of the last six meetings. This is the first game of a new road trip for Boston and after their big win over the Warriors this is probably a letdown spot for the road team. It seems like the bookies are begging the public to take the Celtics here and they are obliging but we expect a close, low-scoring game here and we think that the underdog is the only way to go in this matchup.

Utah is banged up right now and they haven’t been playing well lately. They are also coming in on a back-to-back. But we just think this is too many points they are getting tonight. This is Orlando, after all, that is their opponent tonight. They have lost three straight as well. The Jazz could get Ricky Rubio back tonight from injury and that would be a big help to the offense here. Utah has won two straight meetings in this series and they have covered six of the last seven meetings in Orlando. We think the Jazz will go all out to end this losing streak in what is a very favorable matchup on Saturday.

The Clippers are really struggling right now but this is more a play against Cleveland than for the Clippers. The Cavs are always overvalued by the oddsmakers, and they have been particularly bad at home where they have yet to cover a game this season (0-6-1 ATS). They have been particularly bad as a favorite as they are 1-8 ATS when laying 3 or more points on the season. The Clippers are really desperate for a win. They come into this game having had three nights off to regroup and we expect a strong effort tonight.

This Pistons team is flying up our power rankings and we think this squad is legit. They are 10-4 SU this season and they have been a covering machine on the road. We think that they are in great shape for a big road win here on Friday night. These teams just played in Detroit recently and it was a very dominating performance by the Pistons, who won by 17. We think they could easily score a massive win here as the “revenge” angle is way overrated in NBA handicapping, especially for a team like Indiana that is one of the more lousy teams in the NBA this season. They are just trying to take the season game by game and if they have revenge on their minds then they are going to have a lot of enemies this season because they won’t win too many games. We think the Pistons are undervalued here on the road and we expect them to continue their strong play here on Friday.

The Celtics enter having won 13 straight but we think they are running into a buzzsaw tonight. Golden State has won seven straight themselves and they are in midseason form right now. When this team is playing well they can cover any line thrown at them over any team. And when they are motivated they are very dangerous. And there is no doubt they will be motivated tonight as they have a chance to halt this Celtics winning streak. The fact that Boston has won two of the last three meetings will fuel the Warriors fire even more. This is just the much better team slat out and we expect a big performance from the road team.

The Grizzlies started off real hot at the beginning of the season and they have trailed off a bit and have lost three of their last four. They are coming off a long road trip, mostly against very tough teams, and then this is their first game back home before they face Houston and Portland in their next two games. We just don’t see how they are going to be very focused for this opponent, and it seems with this small line that the bookies are begging the public to take the home team here. Memphis is 0-3 against the Eastern Conference so far this season and we just think this is a bad spot for them tonight, especially with Conley very questionable for this game.

Miami always seems to play well against the Wizards. In fact, they have won five straight in this series. And they have covered in four of those five games. We like them at home tonight against this short price. This is the first game of a home-and-home and these teams play Friday in the Nation’s Capital and the home team is normally a very strong play in the first leg of these situations. The Heat have been on the road for a long time but they have had two nights off heading into this rare home game and we think that the home crowd will be rocking for this one. The Wizards record has been pumped up by an incredibly easy schedule and any decent team with that slate should be better than 8-5. We think there is nice value in the home team tonight.

Houston has won six straight but they have played some pretty flawed teams during that stretch. Next to Cleveland this is the best team they have played during that stretch. We just think that this is too many points to give up to Toronto. The Raps haven’t been lined as this big of an underdog too much this season but they have covered every time they are getting decent points as they are 2-0 ATS when getting four or more. We see this as a very competitive game and we think that the Raptors are a very live underdog on Tuesday and they have a great chance to win this game outright, so getting this many points provides great betting value.

We think this is a real good spot for the Blazers tonight. Denver has been very good lately but they have played their last six games at home and it hasn’t always been against the best competition. Portland has been playing pretty mediocre basketball to start the season and they enter this matchup at 6-6. But they have played a lot of close games and we think they are playing better than that record might indicate. The Nuggets have played a very home-heavy schedule to start the season but they are just 2-3 SU on the road and 1-4 ATS this season. We think after losing two straight really close games that the Blazers will go all out for the win tonight. We had this game handicapped at Portland -4 with a strong lean to the home team at that number so to get them as a slight underdog is a gift here. We think these teams are about equal but we give the nod to Portland because of their great home-court advantage tonight.

Orlando is on a back-to-back here and playing their third game in four nights. That is really tough to do in the high altitude of Denver. The Nuggets had the night off on Friday and they should be primed for a big performance here tonight. The Nuggets have won four of five and they are playing really well, with their only loss during this stretch coming against the Warriors. This is the last game of a six-game homestand and if they get the win here tonight that will make it an extremely successful homestand. Denver has won seven of the last nine meetings in this series and they are 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings at home in this series.

With the last two games in this series being decided by a grand total of three points (and the Bucks covering in both games) you have to like Milwaukee here with the underdog points on Friday. The Bucks are off to a real slow start to the season but this is a stock to buy low as this team will be a force this season and it just seems to be a matter of time until they start cashing tickets on a regular basis and we expect that to start tonight. Both teams have had a couple nights off but the Bucks are even more well rested with a real light schedule lately and we think they will want to flex their muscle in this game not only to end a four-game losing streak but to test their mettle against one of the best teams in the west.

OKC has won and covered four of the last five meetings in this series. The Nuggets have been playing real well lately but their record is somewhat Fool’s Gold as they have run into some of the worst of the worst in the NBA this season. OKC has had a shaky start to the season and they have lost three straight. But we just think that there is some nice value here as if this game were at the start of the season the Thunder would probably be 4 or 5 point favorites here and we think that is a more solid number than this short one posted by the bookies. We think the road team gets back on the winning track here in the TNT nightcap.

Boston has won nine straight and now they are back at home after a three-game road trip. Actually five of the last seven have come on the road but that hasn’t slowed the Celtics down as they have covered in eight games of the winning streak. We think they are in store for another cover tonight. The Lakers are still figuring things out. They have covered four in a row (which has kept this line reasonable) but those opponents were all flawed and they face a very good team tonight. This Lakers team has played only three road games thus far this season and as a result they are a bit overrated and we expect a double-digit win from the home team tonight.

We see this as a low scoring game and we think the underdog covers in this one. Orlando is banged up right now, especially in the backcourt, and they scored only 83 and 88 in their last two games, respectively. We don’t see them getting back on the offensive track until they get healthy again. They have now gone under in four straight games and in five of their last six. The Knicks are coming in on a back-to-back and this is their third game in four nights. We don’t see them putting a massive number on the scoreboard tonight although we do think they can do enough offensively to cover this line. New York is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings and 8-2-1 ATS in the last 11 in Orlando. This should be an ugly game but it doesn’t matter as we expect to cash both tickets here.

These teams have identical records but we think the Grizzlies are slightly ahead of the curve when you compare these two teams head to head. We think that they have a great chance to notch the straight up win tonight. Portland scored a big win over OKC last time out and as a result we think they are a bit overvalued in this game as we had this one as a pickem so getting the points here gives nice value to the underdog that we think is very live tonight and we expect the Griz to score the road win tonight.

While the Clippers have had zero success lately against the Warriors they have fared much better against the other Western Conference top power, the Spurs. They have won and covered in four of the last six matchups. And who can forget that awesome playoff series a few years ago where the Clips won in Game 7. After a hot start the Clippers have lost four of five. But this is a better team than that recent record. They are embarking on a long road trip and this is the first game and we think they will bring their A Game tonight to start the trip off on the right foot against a team they have had a lot of success against recently. The Spurs are banged up right now and this team is more vulnerable than ever.

Both of these teams have had slow starts to the season but the Cavs are normally overvalued by the oddsmakers and this team is a very poor 2-8 ATS this season. We think they are overvalued in this spot as well. The Bucks will want to play their best here and you get the feeling that this is just another game for Cleveland. These teams already played this season and the Cavs blew the Bucks out and that loss is probably still fresh on their minds. We expect a much better performance from the road team here in this matchup. Milwaukee is well rested here with three nights off and with that extra time we think they will be primed to end the losing streak here and even if they don’t we expect a close game here.

We said we might cool off from fading the Warriors for awhile as we had a big play Saturday against them and they have been playing really well their last few games. However, when we saw this line we just had to throw a couple units on the Heat here as this line is just too large, especially for a Warriors team that hasn’t been good at covering lines in the regular season for the last year or so. We just think there is nice value here. This is the Miami freaking Heat not the Kings or the Bulls. The Heat have had a slow start to the season but they have covered four straight in this series and they will very likely give a lot of effort tonight against the defending champs.

Atlanta always seems to get pumped for this matchup and they have won and covered four of the last five meetings. The Celtics are playing great basketball right now and they have won and covered eight straight. But with that success comes inflated lines and this one sure looks inflated tonight. The Hawks are not very good this year but we expect this Atlanta team to be a plucky underdog in spots this year, especially at home. They haven’t yet won a home game this season and that won’t continue long and we think they give extra effort tonight in order to try and secure that first win against a team that has become a bit overrated by oddsmakers. We might throw a few bucks on the moneyline here but we think this many points is too good to pass up.

Portland always plays tough in this series and they have won and covered in four of the last five meetings. The Thunder have gotten off to a real slow start this season at 4-4. And when you look closer at their wins it looks even worse when you see that three of those wins were against the Bulls, Knicks and Pacers. They will face a much tougher test tonight in a Portland team that has been playing well to start the year with a 5-4 start. They have had a couple nights off heading into this game and they should be well rested to defend the home court. The Thunder are still figuring things out and we think they are a bit overvalued in this spot as a road favorite.

Utah has a strong history in this series recently as they have covered three of the last four meetings, winning in all three of those games. The Jazz have been playing great basketball to start the season but they hit a roadblock last time out against the Raptors for their first home loss. They have yet to win on the road but two of those games were really tough matchups and they had that one loss against Phoenix that was just a head scratcher. But we think they will bring their A Game in hopes to get that elusive first road win and show the league that they aren’t only a good home team. Utah has been really good against the number this season at 6-3 ATS and we think that they are undervalued again here. Both of these teams have trended to the under this season but we think the oddsmakers have overadjusted the number here and it seems there is nice value on the over.

Denver is coming in on a back-to-back but they always play the Warriors tough and we expect the same on Saturday night. In fact, Denver won the last meeting, by 22 points, the last time these teams met in this building. They have covered the last two meetings and in seven of the last nine overall. The Warriors looked real good in their last two games in blowing out the Clippers and the Spurs, both on the road. But those are two of Golden State’s biggest rivals and we think they were pretty amped up for those games. But overall they are slogging through the first couple weeks of the season and they are just 3-6 ATS as they have not been bringing a championship effort every night. And teams are giving their best against them in just about every matchup. We think that will be the case here for Denver on Saturday night.

Utah has been excellent this season and they are 5-0 at home. But we think that the Raptors are the better team here at this point in time and we had them as a small road favorite in this matchup. Toronto has won seven of the last eight in this series and they have covered in all eight of those games! That is a trend that has lasted for several years. Utah just played a string of Western Conference rivals and they have a game at Houston on deck and we think they might be in letdown mode tonight against this out-of-conference foe. We think there is great value tonight in going against this false favorite.

The Spurs have lost four straight, but three of those were on the road and last night they lost to a motivated Golden State team that is one of the best squads of all time. This Spurs team just does not lose multiple games that often and they want to end the losing streak tonight at home. Sometimes on back-to-backs Gregg Popovich may rest players. But they are already shorthanded with Leonard out and we think they give full effort tonight. We have taken the Hornets sparingly this season but for us mostly this is a team to fade until Nic Batum comes back as he is one of their key cogs. The Hornets have not beat the Spurs since 2016, losing 10 straight in the series. The Hornets have played well, but they have had a relatively easy schedule and it has been home-heavy as well. We think that the Spurs are being punished too much by the oddsmakers here for the back-to-back but I can’t see a team that will be more motivated to get a win here on Friday night.

The Warriors have struggled to start the season. They are just 2-6 ATS through eight games. But their Monday win at LA Clippers showed that all they have to do is flip a switch and they can be back in championship form. They wanted that win badly against the Clippers and we think that they will be similarly motivated for this contest against the Spurs, arguably the second-best team in the west. The Spurs have started slow as well and they are banged up right now. We don’t think they will be able to have much success against a healthy and motivated Warriors team. Golden State might be a team to fade early season against sub-par opponents or laying big numbers. But with this game on the road and considering the quality of the opponent we think the price is right here and there is a good chance that this game will be a blowout.

We were on the Kings last night and they put in a pitiful performance in a loss at Indiana. We just think that they will play harder tonight against what is already an inflated number. The Kings covered both meetings last season and they even blew the Celtics out in one game at home. The Celtics have had nothing but big games against marquee opponents this season so far but this is the first game against a pretty much meaningless opponent and it is probably human nature for this team to be in a letdown spot tonight. That is not a good place to be when laying such a massive number like the Celtics are tonight!

The Bucks are coming in on a back-to-back and they lost last night to the Thunder but this team faces a big drop off in competition tonight as they travel to Charlotte. Milwaukee has won and covered the last two meetings between these teams. The closest out of those contests was a nine-point win about a week ago. This is the start of a four-game road trip for the Bucks, and we think they will want to get off to a strong start in a very winnable game after getting blown out last night. We think they are the better team in this matchup.

The Suns have won three of four since their coaching chance but they face a much tougher test tonight against one of the best teams in the east. This Phoenix team is coming in on a back-to-back after a win last night in Brooklyn where they expended a lot of energy. Washington has had a couple nights off and they will be anxious for a big win here after coming back from a west coast swing where things didn’t go as well as they would have hoped. The Wizards have covered in three of four games and we think they are rested and poised for a massive blowout win tonight against a fatigued Suns squad that is in over their heads.

The Pacers have been decent to start the season but there’s no way this team should be favored by this many points against any team in the league. The Kings have gone 0-4 ATS in their last four but the oddsmakers have overadjusted here. The Kings have had a very tough schedule to open the season but this is a real winnable game for them so we expect them to go all out. Their tough schedule up to this point will help them as they face this weaker opponent. Indiana is coming off a win against the Spurs and they play at Cleveland tomorrow so this is more of a meaningless game for them and we expect the effort to be with the road team here.

We almost always take the Warriors when they play the Clippers as this has been a one-sided rivalry lately. But we think that LA is in a great position to challenge the Warriors tonight and even maybe win this game. Golden State is 1-6 ATS this season and the oddsmakers are not adjusting to their slow start. They are on a back-to-back here after losing at home to the Pistons last night and now they face a big step up in competition against a team that is really going to play their best game against the team they want to beat the most.

Orlando is playing very well to start off the season and we think that this line is too steep. The Magic are averaging a full seven points more on offense than the Pelicans and their defensive points per game allowed is very similar to that of New Orleans. We think that this will be a close game and we think that this is a live underdog tonight. New Orleans just came off a big win at home against Cleveland and they have a tough game vs. Minnesota coming up next so we think they may look past this Magic team tonight. This Orlando team looks like a real scrappy ballclub that will cover some big lines this season as expectations are low and they have been playing beyond them so far this season.

San Antonio has a strong history in this series where they have covered six of the last seven meetings. The Spurs have dropped two straight games so we think they bring their A Game tonight to get out of this road trip with a split. The Spurs don’t lose three in a row often. Boston has been very solid in winning three straight games but they haven’t played anyone on the same level as the Spurs. San Antonio is 13-3-1 ATS in the last 17 meetings in Boston and we expect them to have success again in a building they have played so well in the past.

The Warriors are 1-5 ATS this season thus far. This team we think is following more in the footsteps of teams like the Cavs and Spurs who don’t take the regular season that seriously and concentrate on the postseason. Golden State was not very good at the start of last season, either, especially against double-digit spreads. They are coming off that hard-fought win over Washington, a team they have a lot of history with, and they have road games at Clippers (tomorrow) and Spurs coming up. They are probably not concentrating that much on this opponent tonight and we think the Pistons will be able to keep this one close. Detroit is 5-1 ATS this season so it’s obvious they are a bit underrated by the bookies right now.

Charlotte has completely dominated this series, going 5-0 SU and ATS during the last five meetings. We think this line is short once again on Sunday. Both teams are coming in off a different side of a blowout as the Hornets lost big to Houston while the Magic upset the Spurs. That is why we are getting a nice line tonight but this is a whole new game and the Hornets are the better ballclub here. The Magic have had a nice start to the season for sure but we think that they will come back to reality tonight against a team they have not had much success against. Both teams have been playing pretty strong defense (Charlotte allowing less than 100 per game and both teams allowing around 42% shooting from the field). We think this will be a low-scoring game and the Hornets pull away in the fourth.

The Pistons have been inconsistent and the LA Clippers are one of the last undefeated teams left in the NBA, but we have to say that this line is inflated here on Saturday night. This is a sandwich game for the Clippers. They are coming off a big game at Portland where Blake Griffin sank a buzzer-beating three at the buzzer for a one-point win, and then they play their arch enemy, Golden State, on Monday. There is a very good chance that they will overlook this Eastern Conference opponent tonight. And even if they play their best, the Pistons are not a pushover. They are coming off a 20+-point win over Minnesota and will be coming into Staples Center with a lot of confidence. We might throw a buck or two on the moneyline as well, but we think these points are too many to pass up.

Both teams wowed on offense in Game 4 and the Cavs probably played their best game of the season on the offensive end. We just don’t think that will happen again and we think the Warriors make some adjustments on the defensive end to make sure nothing like that happens. We are getting the highest total of the series here by a bunch, and we think it’s time to strike for the under for our big play for Monday. The Warriors are one of the best defensive teams in the league even though their numbers don’t show it because they play at such a fast pace. But this team is pissed about how Game 4 went down and we expect them to lock down more on defense. It’s a good choice to think the Cavs will probably cool off big time compared to Game 4 now that they are here on the road. We said before our Game 4 pick on Cleveland that we thought they would give one last gasp and that the Warriors might take their foot off the gas a bit and we think that’s just what happened but now we have an extra motivated Warriors team here that will take care of business and we think that Cleveland will struggle to put up enough points to get this one over the enormous total.

We have been on Golden State for all three games of these NBA Finals but the odds have finally risen to where the Cavs have some betting value. They had Game 3 all but won but you have to be up by 10+ with even a minute left against this team as they can get hot in a hurry and the Cavs missed some key shots that sunk them. Game 3 is so crucial in a 7-game series and the Warriors got the win and now this series is all but over. We think they may take their foot off the gas just a bit tonight and the Cavs are a prideful team and we expect to see the best game from them and we think that this will be another close game just like Game 3 and we could see the Cavs winning this one but think it could go either way. Golden State had all the betting value through three games but now the line indicates the Cavs have value in our opinion. We have released a totals play for every game in this series but had to stay away tonight as the number has risen just too much and we just can’t play the under with the way the Warriors offense has been dominating. However, we do think that the Cavs might make a big defensive stand here and even the Warriors have a bad game offensively where they have cold spells from the field. With the series basically wrapped up for all intents and purposes maybe the Warriors aren’t completely in the zone and there is always that thought in the back of their minds that they could go home and win it in front of the home fans in Game 5.

Cleveland didn’t play too well offensively in the two games in Golden State but Game 2 still soared over the posted total by nearly 25 points. The bookies posted a higher number here for Game 3 but we still think it’s not high enough. Cleveland will probably do better on offense and pace will be a big part of that but we don’t think there is anything they can do to stop the Golden State offense. They are playing probably their best basketball of their golden era right now and are one of if not THE best team of all time. Their offense is pretty much unstoppable right now. If Gregg Popovich of the Spurs, in our opinion the best coach in any sport, could not do anything to stop this offense then that means Cleveland coach Tyronn Lue is in way over his head. Golden State is even more dangerous when they are motivated. They haven’t lost in the playoffs yet and we get the feeling that finishing off the playoffs with an unblemished record is a big priority for this team just like the regular-season wins record was last season. This team is a collection of massive egos. While big ego is a negative thing in everyday life it’s a great thing in sports because when you are putting your money behind a team like this you can expect the best results on a nightly basis and we just don’t see the Cavs putting up enough of a fight here and we don’t think they have the defensive chops to slow Golden State down as no one has been able to lately.

We were on Golden State in Game 1 and we had a great feeling that they would come out strong to start the series. We don’t see them letting up here in Game 2 and we think that this series is much more of a mismatch as it might seem to most. Cleveland is a very good team that plays in a weak conference but Golden State is a great team that plays in one of the tougher conferences in the history of the league in the current Western Conference. Many people like to use the zig zag theory when it comes to handicapping the NBA Finals and we know Cleveland will be a popular bet on Sunday but we think that Cleveland was very lucky to win last year and they ran into a Warriors team that had simply run out of gas. We thought the bookies may have posted a Game 2 line to make the Warriors more attractive to bettors looking to play the zig zag but they made the line even higher for Golden State but we don’t think it will matter as we think this one will be a double-digit winner. We also like the pace that these teams played at on Thursday and we think the rust is off now and that the scoring will be up from Game 1.

We think these are some very weak numbers for Game 1 of the NBA Finals. We think Golden State is much better than a favorite of this number as they have revenge for losing last year and also lots of time off to prepare. Yes, this team lost this series last season but they did things all wrong in the regular season by chasing the season wins record and they just ran out of gas with a big advantage in the Finals and let the Cavs come back and win it. They didn’t make the same mistake this season. They did things right and they took it easy more in the regular season and some people were even wondering if this team was as good as last season. They are every bit as good and even better. Cleveland rolled through the playoffs but the east was very weak and they didn’t face the same type of competition as Golden State did. But the Warriors have been in Championship Mode since the stretch run of the regular season and this team is playing as good as they ever have right now. This is one of the best teams in NBA history and Cleveland doesn’t fall into that category as far as we are concerned. They will play with a chip on their collective shoulders in this series and that is when this team is the most dangerous. We think both teams will get their points here but we don’t think the Cavs will be able to keep up for four quarters and we think there’s a great chance that this one winds up in the 230s or above.

We had the Cavs in Game 4 and they probably would have covered if there had been one more minute in the game. They could have went for a shot to push or cover but they just dribbled the shot clock out. But we have a more manageable line here for Game 5 and we aren’t worried about the lack of home-court advantage because the Cavs won in blowouts in both games in Boston. The Cavs know that the Warriors are resting right now and they don’t want to leave anything to chance here to let Boston come back like they did in Game 3 and we think that this one will be all Cleveland for four quarters. Boston is still a piece or two away from really being a contender for the NBA Championship and the Cavs have that type of team right now and we are confident this will be a double-digit blowout.