Sports Picks & Predictions

The Magic are 2-8 ATS as a favorite this season and this team just should not be favored by this many against anyone with the way they are playing right now. They have shown a real lack of heart in getting blown out the last couple games. These teams have similar records and even though the Magic have better talent, the Sixers have at least been playing harder lately and we think they can challenge for the win tonight. Philly is 6-6 ATS on back-to-backs this season so they should be fine here after a pretty competitive game last night against the Spurs (they covered).

The Heat have won 11 straight. And they are getting points against a team that is 22-28 on the season? We have to give credit to the Heat as winning 11 games in a row in the NBA is impressive no matter who the opponents, but Miami has had a home-heavy schedule lately and they have played a lot of bad teams as well. They had some good wins there as well, but they have mostly played bad teams at home. Even though the Bucks have a losing record, this is a team that we are pretty high on and they should have a lot of betting value down the stretch of the season. We think they match up well with Miami here, and the Heat aren’t going to keep this winning streak going much longer. In fact, we think it ends tonight. The home team has won and covered in the last four meetings in this series. The Bucks have also covered in seven of the last 10 meetings.

The Pelicans have played pretty well at home lately, winning three of their last five, including wins over the Spurs and Cavs. We expect them to challenge for the win tonight. The Jazz are a very good team but they are much better at home than on the road. Utah is coming off a big road win over Atlanta and they will probably overlook this New Orleans team a bit tonight. We expect a big night from Anthony Davis here, and even though the Jazz are playing well they normally can’t score enough on the road to cover big numbers and they are just 10-14 ATS on the road this season. And they have shown the aptitude to have a letdown in these spots against teams with winning percentages lower than .400 as they are 0-5 ATS in their last five games against teams like this.

Dallas played in the high altitude in Denver last night while the Blazers were off last night and they had a day off before their last game on Sunday so they should be plenty fresh and ready to score the road win here. And this is a big revenge spot for the road team as they lost to the Mavs in Portland on Friday. Dallas jumped out to a 24-point lead in that game but won by only four points, and the only thing that stopped the Blazers from coming back and winning that one was that time ran out. Revenge is an overplayed NBA handicapping facet but it does come into play when teams have met recently, and that is certainly the case here tonight.

Orlando has a very strong history in this series and they are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings in Houston and 11-3 ATS in the last 14 meetings overall. This team hasn’t been playing too well lately and they have burned us a couple times, but when the value is there it’s there and we have to roll with them again tonight. This team is definitely better than they have shown in recent games and without a lot to play for teams like this sometimes don’t give effort every game in the dog days of the NBA season but they have covered three of their last five overall and they have been very good as an underdog play this season.

The Kings have covered the last two meetings in this series and they were very competitive when these teams met last time in Chicago late last month, a three-point loss. We think they will return the favor here tonight. The Kings are riding sky high after an OT win last time out here on this same court against the Warriors. We think that positive momentum will carry over here into this game. The Kings have covered in eight of the last 10 meetings, and we think this is another very public line tonight as we thought the home team should be favored by a couple more points.

The Clippers haven’t played well here in Toronto but we expect them to compete for the win here tonight. They played a pretty listless game on Super Bowl Sunday at Boston but still got the cover. We think that they will give a better effort here, and the Raptors haven’t exactly been playing their best as they have lost eight of their last 11 and will be without DeRozan again here. The Clippers have played well without Chris Paul in the past and now that Blake Griffin is getting back into game shape we can see this team starting to notch some more wins. They should be in must-win mode tonight and we don’t expect two games in a row like the one they played against Boston yesterday.

These teams have similar records but the Jazz have had many injury issues this season and the Hawks have been playing a bit over their heads but we just think that Utah is the much better team here and we think they should be a decent-sized favorite here. Utah has covered four of the last six meetings in this series and we think they match up well in this contest. They won by 27 at home when these teams met in November. We expect the Jazz defense to flex its muscle tonight and we think there is a chance they will hold the Hawks to a real low score here. We had this game handicapped at Jazz -3.5, so we think there is some nice value here.

We like the home dog here. Both teams are on a back-to-back tonight, but the Wolves have been great in this situation and are 6-1 ATS on the season in the second end of a back-to-back. They also have a big advantage here being at home in this one as that makes the back-to-back a lot easier to navigate. The Grizzlies are not only on the road here, but they are on their last game of a six-game road trip and they looked like they were running out of gas last night in OKC. We really doubt they give full effort in this one. Also, Minnesota has covered in five of the last six meetings at home in this series.

The Nuggets are on a back-to-back here and playing their third game in four nights while the Spurs last played Thursday and they had Wednesday off as well, so this team is fairly well rested. The Nuggets are only 4-6 ATS on the second of a back-to-back. San Antonio has covered in four of the last five meetings and they covered lines of 12.5 and 14.5 in that span. The Spurs are 19-14 ATS when laying six or more points, so they are very solid at covering the big lines. The Nuggets are 4-8 ATS when getting five or more points so this team has not been very good as a solid underdog. The Spurs have won the last two meetings by an average of 21 points, and we expect another blowout here tonight.

Orlando has won and covered in three of the last four meetings in this series. They have covered in three of their last four contests overall, including two straight up wins over Toronto. They are 11-4 ATS this season when getting seven or more points, so they have been an excellent play as a big underdog. They are also an excellent 7-3 ATS when playing in the second end of a back-to-back. We expect a close game here and think that the Magic will keep things close all game long. They are pretty healthy right now and this team has done their best work on the road this season (15-12 ATS on the road).

The Bucks have not been playing well lately and the Nuggets have been pretty good (although they have lost two straight entering this game). But the Bucks are just a much better team here and we had them handicapped as 3-point favorites here, and that makes great value tonight as we think that Milwaukee should win this game straight up. Milwaukee has had a really tough and road-heavy schedule lately and they are underrated at this point of the season. We think that this team will get things together and go on a nice ATS run soon, and that could start tonight. Denver is pretty banged up right now while the Bucks are relatively healthy and the Nuggets are also playing their third game in four nights, so fatigue should be a factor here. We would not be surprised to see the Bucks win this one by 6+.

We sometimes look for talented teams that suffered a bad loss and look to back them in their next game. We did that recently with the Clippers after their blowout loss to the Warriors and they took care of business next time out at Phoenix. The Wolves come off a horrible effort at Cleveland and we think they will bounce back here against a much lesser team. Minnesota is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings in Detroit and they have been a great bounce back team at 5-0 ATS in their last six games after a loss. That last one was a big loss and this team should play with a lot of pride tonight. We expect a high scoring game here as both teams are trending heavily to the over in recent games.

Atlanta is in a downturn right now and they have they have lost three of five and have covered in just one of those games. They are in a real tough spot here on a back-to-back after getting blown out in Miami last night. Now they have to play this back-to-back on the road and against a much better team. We don’t expect things to go too well for them. Houston is 9-2 ATS this season when laying nine or more points so they usually excel in these types of situations. The weary Hawks probably will not be able to keep up with the Rockets energy tonight since Houston had the night off Wednesday.

We like to back teams off a big loss and that is the case the Clippers find themselves in tonight after an embarrassing 46-point loss to the Warriors. The Clippers have had three nights off after that game and they are in a pretty much must-win situation tonight after losing four of their last five. But that was against a pretty tough schedule and we think they will take full advantage of this lesser opponent tonight. Blake Griffin hasn’t been that effective since his return but he is getting back in basketball shape and should be a beast until Chris Paul gets back closer to the playoffs. They played well without Paul in the past and we think this team will start to notch more wins. And they will certainly take this game very seriously after that drubbing by the Warriors last time out.

The Timberwolves are playing some of their best basketball of the season right now and have won five of six. We are always looking for a good spot to go against the Cavaliers, who are 19-26-2 ATS this season and not nearly the club that won the championship last year. Not only are they getting their best shot from opponents on a nightly basis but they also are facing overinflated odds by the bookies. Minnesota has been a great play as a big dog and they are 5-1 ATS this season when getting six or more points. They showed some clutch play last game out in the OT win over Orlando and we expect them to come into this game very confident tonight.

The Magic are nearing full strength on their roster and we had them handicapped as a small favorite in this matchup and expect them to notch the home win here tonight. The Pacers are not a good road team and they have only seven wins away from home compared to eight home wins for the Magic. The Pacers have also had trouble in covering on the road against sub-.500 teams and they are 4-9 ATS in these situations this season. The Magic have played very well for two games in a row and they have covered in both contests, and they should have won last time but failed in OT at Minnesota. We think there is nice value in this line tonight.

We think that the Hornets are a better team than Portland and we are more than happy to get this many points for a game we think the Hornets can win straight up. The Hornets have lost four straight but they faced a pretty tough schedule there and this team is better than that record might indicate. And they were not embarrassed in any of the games, and were competitive in most. That just ups the must-win factor in this game and this is a much more crucial game for the Hornets than it is for Portland. Charlotte has covered in four of the last six meetings, and we think they have a great chance to win this one tonight.

The Wizards have won and covered in the last four meetings in this series. The Knicks had the night off on Monday but they played in a four OT game on Sunday and that is like playing an extra half of basketball and that fatigue will be a factor here. The Wizards are really underrated right now, and that is obvious by the fact that they have covered nine straight games entering this matchup. And they are not just covering since they have won all but one of those games. This team has been really good at home where they are 19-6 SU on the season and 17-8 ATS. This team can put up points in a hurry and we think the weary Knicks will not be able to keep up.

The Magic have covered in three of the last five meetings. They may get Evan Fournier back tonight, and he could be a huge boost to this club. Yes, Orlando is coming in on a back-to-back and even played in OT last night, but this team is young and we don’t think that fatigue will be a huge issue. This is just too many points for a Minnesota team that has been inconsistent. The Magic are 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings in Minnesota and 12-4 ATS in the last 16 meetings overall. They are also 8-2 ATS when getting eight or more points this season and they are normally a strong play as a big dog.

We have gone against the Clippers in this matchup just about every time these teams have played the last couple seasons with great results. But our gut tells us that this one will be different tonight. The Warriors haven’t been good against the big lines this season at 13-20 ATS when favored by 10 or more, and the Clippers have had three nights off heading into this game and are in a prime spot to perform well tonight. With the recent domination against the Clips we think the Warriors might not come out with the same intensity that we are used to seeing when these teams meet. The road team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.

The Pistons have had a rare four nights off here, and at this point in the NBA season that is huge. Lots of teams are worn out right now and that is why you have seen so many upsets lately. Not only is Miami coming in on a back-to-back, but this team is playing its third game in four nights. Miami has won six straight but we just don’t see how they have much left in the tank tonight. Detroit has won three of four and they are in pretty good form right now. The Pistons have a clear injury sheet tonight, while the Heat are pretty banged up, and Whiteside is questionable, one of the Heat’s most crucial players. We think the Pistons will have a lot of energy on defense tonight while we expect the Heat to struggle on the offensive end.

Not only has Charlotte won and covered the last two games, but they are getting the Kings in a real bad spot here. This is Game 5 of an eight-game road trip and this will be the Kings third game in four nights and a back-to-back. And this is a super back-to-back because the Kings played in OT in their last two games. We don’t think they will have much left in the tank here. The Hornets have had a tough schedule lately and they have lost three straight but those were all tough games and tonight they have a great chance to get back on the winning track in a big way against a team that has to be running on fumes tonight.

The Magic have been great as decent-sized underdogs this season and currently stand at 9-3 ATS when getting more than seven points, and we think they are playing a vulnerable team tonight. Boston has won only one of their last four games and they are not in great form despite a win over Houston last time out. This will be the Celtics third game in four nights while the Magic have had two nights off to rest. Both teams come into this game banged up, but the lack of rest should hurt Boston more in that regard. You just always have to look at the Magic when they are getting big points as they normally put up a heck of a fight in these situations.

The Kings have been one of the better road teams against the spread at 13-11 ATS on the season. We think that they are getting too many points here once again tonight. Sacramento is 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine meetings between these teams, and we think they match up well here. Sacramento has covered three straight games and they should come into this game with a lot of confidence after road wins over Detroit and Cleveland in their last two games. They had the night off while the Pacers are on a back-to-back here. The Pacers are one of the worst in the NBA in these situations at 1-7 SU and ATS!

Denver has played well lately but this team is not worthy of being a seven-point favorite over any NBA team.  The Suns are playing well too but this team is more under the radar, but they have covered in five of their last six games and they should play their A Game here tonight in what is a very winnable game. The Nuggets haven’t been big favorites too often this season, but when they are they are just 1-2 ATS and we expect a close game here.

The Sixers are on a back to back and they will be without Embiid tonight. They have not been good at all in back to back situations and are just 1-8 SU and 3-6 ATS. They got a home win over the undermanned Clippers last night and that has kept this line down but we thought that this one should be closer to 14. The Bucks haven’t been playing well. They had a recent five-game losing streak. But the NBA is streaky and they dominated Houston last time out and that should give them a lot of positive momentum that will continue here on Wednesday night. One of those losses during that losing streak was in this same building to this same Sixers team. Not only does this create a great revenge spot, but Embiid had a monster game there and he won’t be on the floor tonight. We see a very different outcome tonight. The Bucks haven’t been a great ATS team thus far but we expect that to change and they should be in the plus by the end of the season.

Minnesota has won and covered both meetings this season and they match up extremely well here. They have had their share of bumps in the road this season but their six road wins is only one less than the Suns at home, and the Timberwolves are playing a lot better lately, having won five of their last seven games overall. The Suns are a scrappy team that we have played in certain spots as a big underdog, but this team is 0-4 ATS as a small favorite this season and we just think that this is a game the Wolves have a big talent edge in and we expect them to take this game seriously as they don’t have a lot of room for error after their slow start to the season.

Utah is 11-3 ATS in the last 14 meetings and we love them getting points tonight and think that the wrong team is favored here. The Jazz have to play in the high altitude here and they have played a heavy schedule lately but they are 7-4 SU and 5-5-1 ATS in back-to-backs this season so we aren’t too worried about that since this team has shown they can play in these situations. This will be the third game in four nights for Denver as well so that kind of evens things out, and Utah has a health advantage tonight with several Denver players banged up. Utah is just playing great basketball lately and we think they have a great chance to win this one outright.

The Sixers covered in the last meeting last season but the Clippers had covered in eight straight meetings in this series before that last game (the Clips won by six against a nine-point spread). LA should get Blake Griffin back tonight. Although he won’t play full minutes he should give this team a huge boost both emotionally and on the floor as well. You can kind of tell that this team played like they knew the cavalry was coming last time out in a 10-point win at Atlanta as this team just has not historically done well with Griffin and Chris Paul out of the lineup. We think their star will give them a big boost tonight and Embiid is not expected to play for Philly and they are not as strong without him.

Love the Bucks in this spot. They have lost five straight but all that means is that the value is back with this team. They are much better than their recent record and we think they will bring their A Game back at home. Four of the losses have been on the road. Their one home loss was to a Philly team that has been playing really well. This is a revenge spot for the Bucks since these teams played recently in Houston, a Bucks blowout loss. But the Bucks are 7-3 ATS this season at home against winning teams, and we think they play really well here tonight and we give them a more than decent chance for the straight up win.

The Warriors haven’t been a great team to bet on this season as they started the season slow and were overvalued by the oddsmakers. But they have covered five straight and this team is playing as well as they have all season. We think this team is coming on big time and that they will start wrecking teams on a nightly basis. Remember, despite inflated lines this team was the best ATS team in the NBA last year and they have an even better squad this season. We like them in this spot on the road (lower line) against a way inferior opponent. The Heat are just 4-7 ATS at home against above-.500 teams this season.

The Spurs have won and covered the last three games in this series, and none have been close. In fact, the Spurs have won all three games by an average of 28 points. And we are getting the shortest line they have faced in any of those games. The Spurs are being punished here by the oddsmakers because Tony Parker and Pau Gasol are out, but this team is less about the players than the system, and they have plenty of solid players to pick up the slack. The Spurs have been great at covering big lines and they are 17-11 ATS when laying six or more points this season. This team doesn’t let up in the fourth quarter with a big lead and that is why they are such a great team to bet on.

We like the way the Mavs have been playing lately and we have been on them in certain games, but we just don’t think they are ready to be favored by this many points over any team. This is the biggest favorite they have been all season, and we think this will be a close game. The Lakers definitely have a chance to win this one. They have lost 12 straight to the Mavs and that ups the urgency to go out and get a win here. And the Mavs teams that won most of those games against the Lakers is not as good this season and the Lakers are improved, and we think they come to play here on Sunday.

We are not a big fan of this Cavs team and there probably isn’t a more overrated squad in the east. Yes, they are the best in the east by far, but they are always overvalued by the oddsmakers (18-21-2 ATS this season) and we don’t think they stack up well against the best teams in the west. Anytime you are getting points for the Spurs you really have to take notice, and that is the case here tonight. The Spurs have covered in five of the last seven meetings in Cleveland, and we think they win this one straight up tonight, but we will take the points instead of the moneyline in case it’s a close game. The Spurs have been dogs only twice this season, and of course they are 2-0 ATS in these situations. Make that 3-0 tonight.

Memphis matches up well here and they have covered in five of the last seven meetings. They won the last two straight up. Houston is on a real tough back-to-back here after tangling with the Warriors last night, and that game didn’t go well for them. In fact, they haven’t been playing well lately and have covered in only two of their last seven games. These teams played recently in Houston and the Griz won by five. Forget about revenge here as the Rockets were focused on the Warriors last night and this game will not be as crucial to them and this is a real bad spot for the visitors tonight.

The Wizards are just one of those teams that can’t play basketball away from home. They are 5-13 on the road this season and just 7-11 ATS. They have been playing well lately but have had a home-heavy schedule and we think they are overvalued on this line. Detroit has won two straight and they have looked good doing it, and they are looking for revenge after suffering a beatdown in Washington last month. But they are 10-4 ATS in this series in the last 14 meetings in Detroit and we expect them to take care of business by a comfortable margin tonight.

These teams have played to the under in four straight meetings, and the last three got nowhere near this posted total. We think this will be a low-scoring game. Dallas is trending to the under as seven of the last nine games they have played have gone under, and they are doing it on the strength of their defense. These teams have similar records, but the Mavs have dealt with many injuries this season and now they are relatively healthy. We think they are clearly the better team on the floor in this matchup. They are very confident after three straight wins and we think their defense gets the job done tonight here in South Beach.

NBA Game of the Year. This is the last game of a seven-game homestand for the Kings. It hasn’t gone well. They have only one win during that stretch. We think that makes them a very desperate team tonight in a very winnable game. They are on the road for eight straight games after this game tonight, and they better get a win here at home against a very beatable opponent because if they lose this one they are in trouble. There isn’t much such a thing as a must-win game at this point in the season, but this one is close. If you look at the opponents the Kings have played in this recent homestand you start to think that maybe this team is not playing as bad as their recent results indicate. Opponents included the Clippers, Warriors, Cavs and Thunder. That’s about as tough as a four-game stretch as a team can have. They won against Detroit. The only bad loss during that stretch was against Miami. They took Cleveland to OT and covered against the Warriors. They played OKC pretty close too despite the non cover. Indiana has had a lot easier recent schedule. They are 6-1 in their last seven games, with wins over New Orleans (Anthony Davis had limited minutes), New York, Brooklyn, Detroit, Orlando and Chicago. And most of these games were at home. We are confident the Kings could have played just as well with that schedule, and the Pacers are overvalued as a result. But the Pacers just stink on the road, where they have won only five games this season. They are 5-13 ATS on the road, so when they lose they normally fail to cover as well. Sacramento is 4-1 ATS as a small favorite this season (less than 4.5 points) and the Pacers are 3-9 ATS as an underdog of less than 4.5 points.

Sharp bettors took some of the early value out of this line by pounding Boston, but we think there is a great chance that the Celtics win this one by double digits. Boston has covered in three of the last four meetings and in six of the last nine. We can’t think of another team that has more internal problems as the Knicks right now and this team is really struggling and has won only two of their last 13 games. The Celtics are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 games and are playing as well as any team in the NBA right now. Noah and Porzingis are both questionable for the Knicks tonight, but we don’t think it will matter if they play or not as we see the Celtics rolling here.

Just think this is too many points for the road team tonight. Portland has covered in six of the last nine meetings in this series and we expect them to put up a fight tonight. The Hornets have just one win in their last eight games. They just finished up a long road trip and they lost every game. Normally teams struggle with their first game back after a long trip, and that should be even more so the case for the Hornets who have no confidence right now. The Blazers haven’t been playing great, either, but they have at least split their last four games, and we think they will keep this one close tonight.

Dallas has won and covered in two straight games and this team is playing with some confidence right now. The Bulls have eight more wins than the Mavs this season but Dallas has dealt with a lot of injuries all season and these teams aren’t as far apart as you might think. We just don’t think the Bulls are good enough to be laying this many points to any team coming off of two wins. Chicago has not been a good team to back as a favorite as they are 4-9 ATS when laying four or more points this season and we think they are overvalued here once again. Dallas plays in the Western Conference and they play tougher teams on a nightly basis and that is a big reason for such a disparity in these teams records, plus the injuries for Dallas. The Mavs have won three straight in this series and they have won and covered in four of the last five. We think they have a great chance for the straight up win here tonight.

Utah is playing pretty well lately and even though they had the night off last night this will be their third game in four nights and we think they should struggle to play here on the road like they have been recently, especially against a plucky Suns squad that is back from Mexico and flying high after a win over the Spurs last time out. The Suns have covered in six of their last eight games and this team has been playing hard every night lately. They are 8-2 ATS at home against top teams and this squad normally gets fired up and plays well when a good opponent comes to town.

We just think the Warriors are a much better team in this matchup. Yes, the Cavs won the finals last season, but we think the Warriors were out of gas late in that series after (stupidly) trying so hard for the regular-season wins record. And Cleveland got the win on Christmas when these teams played but they caught the Warriors at the end of that game and we thought Golden State controlled most of that game. Now the venue changes as the Warriors are back home for this one and we think they have a big game here as they should be very very motivated and this team plays its best with a chip on its shoulder.

Philly has been a really hot ATS team and they have covered in six of their last seven games overall. We like their chances to cover this big number today. The Bucks are just 2-5 ATS when laying four or more points this season so they just haven’t been a good play as a big favorite. The Bucks have won nine straight in this series but this is the first meeting of the season and Philly now has the type of team that can be competitive here. We think they give top effort here to end this losing streak and we think they will keep this one close.

The Wizards are one of those teams that has no clue on the road but is great at home. They are 15-6 at home this season and have covered in nine of their last 10 here in DC. Philly will likely be without Rookie of the Year frontrunner Embiid as he normally rests on the second end of a back-to-back. That’s probably a big reason that the Sixers are 1-6 in back-to-backs this season. The Wizards just play great on their home court and they have had two nights off coming into this one. Philly has been playing pretty great lately but this team still has a long way to go and we see a blowout win for the home team here tonight.

It used to be that the Clippers dominated this series but the Lakers are getting better as a team and they are taking this rivalry more seriously and they have actually now covered in five of the last six matchups. And we think they will keep it within double digits here on Saturday. The Lakers are coming off a couple embarrassing losses and we think they will give their best effort today against a team they normally play well against. The Clips haven’t been good at covering the big lines and they are 9-13 ATS when laying six of more points this season. We think this line is 3-4 points too large and we expect a close game here.

We think that this line is kind of a joke. Yes, Detroit is on a back-to-back here and they haven’t been good in this situation but you are going to tell me they should be an underdog by almost the same point total as they were in Golden State last night? Yes, they didn’t cover last night but the Jazz are not the Warriors. This one has a real low point total and we like the under and with a low-scoring game the points with the underdog are more valuable, especially when you are getting double digits. Detroit has covered in four of the last five meetings and they have won two straight in the series, and we expect a close, low-scoring game here tonight.

We are always looking for spots to go against Cleveland as they are a poor ATS team at 16-20-2 and this team always has their lines shaded by the oddsmakers. And we certainly think that is the case tonight. We had this line at Cavs -4 so we think there is nice value here. Sacramento has been a great underdog play and they are 8-3 ATS when getting five or more points this season. Cousins is about to get a fat contract extension and he should be motivated to play a strong game tonight against the defending champs. The Cavs have a huge game upcoming at Golden State and they are probably focused on that more than Sacramento tonight!

Even though the Timberwolves are 2-2 in their last four they have played four pretty strong games in a row and we think the Thunder are a very public play tonight. Minnesota has covered three straight games and we had them as a slight favorite in this game tonight and we expect them to win this one. OKC has covered only 3 of 11 meetings in Minnesota and the Wolves normally match up well in this series. You are starting to see the confidence shine through with this Minnesota team and this squad is very talented and we think they will continue to cover tonight.

Boston is a little banged up but this team is better than Atlanta and we think it’s a gift to get points in this matchup tonight. We fully expect the Celtics to win this one. Atlanta is playing really well right now but this squad has had a super easy schedule and San Antonio is the only real quality win they have in that time. We think this one would qualify as a quality win but that’s not going to happen. This is another game where we had the underdog as a slight favorite and we think that the Celtics will take this one on the road here on Friday.

We have found that fading the Warriors when laying big points is becoming a solid trend. This team is just not playing as well as last year consistently this season and they shouldn’t be giving that type of effort on a nightly basis because look at how that worked out for them last year as they lost to Cleveland in the NBA Finals and looked gassed there at the end of Game 7. The Warriors are just 12-22 ATS this season when laying seven or more points. They are 10-19 ATS when laying double digits. Not only do they not have the same killer instinct as last season but they also are getting their best games from opponents on a nightly basis. Detroit actually played them tough already once this season in a six-point loss in Detroit and they won the meeting before that in Detroit last year. They have covered in three of the last four meetings, and they lost by 14 the last time in GS and were close to covering the spread. We think they come to play again tonight and all indications show they match up well.

There is a lot going on with the Knicks right now and this team has dropped nine of 10. But bettor confidence is at an all-time low with this team and this spread just offers some nice value. The Bulls are without their best player tonight in Jimmy Butler. The flu is going around this team right now. Like the Knicks, the Bulls have their share of issues right now and we think this is a great spot for New York to get a much-needed win. They have covered in four of the last five meetings in this series and we think they will shake off the issues and play a strong game here against another flawed ballclub.

Bonus Play #509 Take Dallas -2 over Phoenix (10 p.m. EST, Thursday)

This game will be played in Mexico City. The Mavs have been streaky lately and they followed three ATS covers with three ATS losses, and one of those losses was to this Suns team a week ago tonight. Revenge doesn’t play a big part in our NBA handicapping but it does play a role when teams have played each other recently, and that is the case here, and we think the Mavs will get the job done here. These teams have similar records but the Mavs have dealt with more injuries and they are relatively healthy right now. They have also won four of the last five meetings and covered in three of the last four.

Anthony Davis is banged up here and left the Pelicans last game and is questionable here. You have to think that he won’t be anywhere near 100% even if he plays, and Davis is one of the most important players in the league to his team’s success. Brooklyn has been good against sub-.500 teams and they are 7-3 ATS against these types of clubs this season. They have also been great as small underdogs, posting a 6-2 ATS record as a dog of less than 5.5 points. Brooklyn has had a pretty tough schedule lately and we think this is one of the more winnable games they have played in awhile and we think they give top effort here and challenge for the win.

The Spurs have covered in seven of the last nine meetings in this series. The Spurs are playing at a championship level right now and they will be too much for the Bucks to handle tonight. San Antonio has covered in seven of their last eight games. The Spurs have always been really good at covering big lines and this year is no different as they are 15-8 ATS when laying six or more points. This team just has that killer instinct and they don’t let up at the end of the game even when up big. The Bucks are banged up while the Spurs are pretty healthy. We think this one is a mismatch even though we like this Bucks team but they are in over their heads tonight.

The Hornets are a team to fade as long as Nic Batum is out as he is one of the most unheralded players in the league and the No. 2 player on this team. But they really lose a lot with him out of the lineup and they head into a buzzsaw tonight in Houston and don’t expect much from the visitors tonight. Houston just keeps getting the job done and they are 8-0 in their last eight games and they have covered in six of those. The Hornets have dropped four of five and aren’t playing too well right now and times should continue to be tough until Batum comes back. Houston is 7-2 ATS when laying nine or more points so they usually get the job done as big favorites.

The Pelicans have won and covered the last two meetings in this series, including about a week and a half ago when the Pels scored a 12-point win in New Orleans. The Knicks were overrated to start the season and they have been playing some of their worst basketball of the season in losing seven of eight, and they had to mount a big comeback in their one win during that stretch. New Orleans is 6-3 ATS as a small dog this season and this is one of their best roles. We think they keep this game very close with the chance for the straight up win, and we think this is an inflated line tonight for the home team.

Orlando already destroyed the Lakers by 19 in Orlando last month and this is just the better team taking the floor tonight and we had the Magic handicapped at -1 in this game and think there is some nice value here with this underdog line as a result. Orlando has had a really tough schedule lately and this is their most winnable game in awhile. We think they will give their best effort. The Lakers are only 2-5 ATS as a favorite this season and we think they will fail in this role again here Sunday night.

The Mavericks have covered in three of their last four games and this team is finally getting healthy and we think they are a better team than their record and also the public perception of this club is skewed, and that provides betting value. The Hawks are playing very well but they are in the middle of a four-game road trip, having won the last two, and they aren’t going to sweep this thing so there is a decent chance they lose tonight. Especially considering this will be their third game in four nights against an opponent that will not inspire their competitiveness. Kyle Korver is on the way out of town and won’t play here. Atlanta has dominated this series but this looks like a bad spot for them tonight.

The Hornets need all the help they can get against the Spurs on the road but they will be without Nic Batum here and he is really one of our favorite players in the league and he’s a very important player for this team. We feel they will slide a bit with him out of the lineup. And they are in tough tonight in San Antonio. Many good teams have trouble covering big lines, but not the Spurs, who are 10-7 ATS when laying seven or more points. We expect that percentage to rise as the season wears on as the Spurs have that killer instinct that a lot of other teams don’t possess. The Spurs are completely healthy and had the night off while Charlotte is playing their third game in four nights in a very tough building for opposing teams.

The Knicks have covered only one of their last eight games in Indiana. Carmelo Anthony is banged up and questionable here. Reports say the injury is so bad that he needs “around the clock” treatment. That doesn’t bode well for a team playing their third game in four nights, and on road back-to-backs no less. The Pacers have won and covered four in a row and this team is playing extremely well right now. They are 14-5 at home this season while the Knicks are just 6-12 on the road. New York got a rare win last night but they have been struggling overall and we just think this is another bad spot for them with an injured superstar.

The Grizzlies have covered in two of the last three meetings and they scored a 21-point home win last time these teams met, holding the Warriors to just 89 points. We don’t expect that kind of result tonight, but we do think the Grizzlies will play hard and keep it close. This series has developed into a rivalry and Memphis should give their best effort. Golden State has covered in only one of their last six games and they just aren’t giving full effort on a nightly basis and they normally have to play their best to cover the massive points they are laying on a nightly basis. This team is 10-16 ATS this season when laying 10 or more points.

Houston is one of the best ATS teams in the league and they are playing a Magic team that has been a solid big underdog on the road but has failed miserably ATS at home with a 5-13-1 ATS mark at home. We aren’t worried about the back-to-back here as the Rockets are 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS on the second night of a back-to-back. They average 121+ points on the second night in these situations! The Magic started off the season playing strong defense but now they have fallen off the cliff in that regard. For every decent game they play defensively they allow 110+ a couple of times, like they have done in three of their last four games, and the Rockets have the type offense that will make them pay.

Atlanta is on a back-to-back here, on the road no less, while the Pelicans have had two nights off. Rest definitely favors the home team here. New Orleans is hot and they have won and covered in four of their last five games. Their only slip up was an eight-point loss at Cleveland. They have also covered in six of the last eight games in this series. The Pelicans are playing a lot better after a bad early start and with the Hawks on a back-to-back we had this game handicapped at Pelicans -6 so we think there is great value here and we think there’s a good chance they win by more than seven tonight.

We have gone against OKC quite a bit this season but this time we think the value has swung the other way as this line is way too large tonight. The Rockets are the better team, but not that much better. The Thunder come in on a back-to-back and we can understand the oddsmakers punishing them for that, but this line still looks about three points off the mark. And you know Russell Westbrook and his big ego will want to have a big game in a marquee matchup like this against an old teammate, especially after an off night last night. The Thunder have lost two in a row and they will go all out to avoid a three-game slide.

Utah has been pretty good on the road and they actually have one less win on the road (10-7) than the Raptors have at home (11-5). We think this will be a competitive game that the Jazz have the chance to win straight up. This is a crucial road trip for Utah and they had a bad loss last time out at Boston and we just think they will play a lot better in this matchup. Toronto is one of the best ATS teams this season but they have started to become overrated by the oddsmakers and they are only 1-4 ATS in their last five games, with the only ATS win coming in a blowout at the Lakers. This is their first game home after a long road trip and history says that is a bad spot many times for good teams.

It’s not often we want to lay this many points in an NBA game, but the Warriors are definitely a team that can cover a line like this, and we think they are primed for a top performance tonight. Golden State has won the last two meetings by 45 and 23 points, respectively, and Damian Lillard was in the lineup for Portland in those games. He has missed four straight games and is doubtful tonight, and we think this one could get very ugly. Portland just stinks on defense and they are the third-worst team in the NBA for points allowed. They can compete against other poor teams but they can’t outscore the Warriors, and they haven’t held Golden State to less than 125 in the last four meetings. With or without Lillard we don’t think they will be able to do anything differently tonight, and since the Warriors haven’t been covering lately this line is manageable as we thought it would be a bit higher but we love it at anything less than 20 as we see this one as a total bloodbath. Golden State has covered in 20 of the last 26 meetings at home in this series!

The Hawks have not been good in the favorites role and they are 6-10 ATS as a favorite of less than seven points, which obviously they find themselves in here tonight. Atlanta normally follows up a solid game with a stinker, and they are 1-8 ATS after an ATS win, another situation they find themselves in tonight. We also think they may come in here a bit overconfident after beating the Spurs last time out. Orlando has won and covered in three of their last five and they have covered in nine of the last 12 meetings in this series. We expect them to compete for the win here tonight.

The Thunder have won 10 straight in this series. But this is not the same OKC team in the past, and we actually think that the Hornets have surpassed the Thunder in terms of being a better all-around team. But because they don’t have any big-name stars they don’t get a lot of attention from the betting public. But we think they will go all out to avoid losing their 11th straight in this series. The Hornets have won five of their last eight but come into this one having lost two straight, which makes this a great bounce-back spot against a beatable opponent. The Thunder are 0-5 ATS as a small dog this season!

The Wizards are hopeless on the road. At 3-11 the Mavs have double the wins at home than Washington has in road games. The Wiz are 5-9 ATS on the road and we think they are overvalued in this game tonight. Dallas is finally getting healthy and this team has played better than expected thus far even dealing with some key injuries. But they have been playing pretty well lately and have covered in four of their last six games. They are also 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings in this series. We expect the home team to come up big tonight and think the wrong team is favored.

Boston is 5-0-2 ATS in the last seven meetings in this series in Boston and 7-2-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings overall. We are thrilled to get them at less than the key NBA betting number of 7 here. The Celtics have covered in seven of their last nine with one push, and we think they match up well in this contest tonight. We expect them to get a comfortable win. This is their first game since 12/30 and they are well rested tonight while Utah has had a pretty busy schedule, and they are not as good on the road as they are at home. We expect the Boston defense to come up big here and the Utah D will keep the Celtics to a reasonable score, but not enough to keep this game close.  Both teams trend to the under when the total is 200 or higher.

The Bucks finished off a 4-game road trip by winning two of three and covering in both wins. We had them last time out against the Bulls and really liked what we saw in a blowout win. The Bucks are 5-1 ATS this season as a small dog (four points or less) and they have thrived in his role we see them in again tonight. The Thunder are 0-4 ATS as a dog of three or less, meaning they tend to struggle in a situation like this. The Thunder are a public team here while the Bucks are a team that bettors don’t like to wager on, and we thought this spread should be closer to 4.5 with a lean to the Bucks at that number so we think there is some nice value here tonight.

We had the Sixers last night in Utah and they were very competitive through three quarters before the bottom fell out in the fourth. But now Joel Embiid will be on the court for this one and he makes this team so much better. And now they play a worse team than they faced last night. This team is young and they shouldn’t be hurt too much from a back-to-back and they should want to put on a good performance after flailing late last night. Philly has covered seven straight in Denver. The Nuggets are on an 0-4 ATS slide and a team that is struggling like this one shouldn’t be a double-digit favorite over anyone.

We have been burned lately a lot by the Pistons but we have to roll with them here as we just think there is value here. This team played Atlanta early in the month and rolled to a nearly 40-point win. So we know they match up well. Atlanta has been bad as a favorite in this range as they are 5-10 ATS as a favorite of less than seven points. They get too much credit from the oddsmakers and this is not the team that we have known in the past few years. Detroit has some mental issues but this is a pretty good team and we think they bounce back well here after a sub par performance last time out against the Bucks.

We think that this is a bad spot for the Mavs tonight. This will be their third game in four nights and this team is not very good to begin with. They are coming off a very emotional game vs. Houston where there were a lot of techs and even some after-the-game drama. We think they will fall flat here against the Lakers tonight. The Lakers didn’t play well during their long road trip but now this is the third game back at home and they have played very well in their last two games, winning against the Clippers and losing by only two (but covering) vs. Utah. This is an extremely winnable game for them tonight not to mention they are the better overall team right now.

This is more a play against Utah than for Philly as we don’t think this team is good enough right now to be laying this many points to any team. They have dropped three of their last four, with their only win coming by only two at the Lakers. They have covered in only one of their last six games. Utah hasn’t been good as a big favorite and they are 0-3 ATS when laying more than eight points so far this season, and this is by far the most points they have given up all season long. The Sixers have had a real light schedule over the holidays and we think they come into this one with a lot of energy and keep the game within double digits.

Boston has won and covered six of their last seven games and they are playing their best basketball of the season right now. They have covered in two of the last three meetings in this series, and we think the Celtics think of this as one of the biggest games of the season while it’s just another game to the Cavs. Boston is one of the better ATS teams at 18-13-1 ATS this season and Cleveland is just average even though they are the better team. But they are always saddled with shaded lines, and we feel that is the case tonight as we had this game handicapped at 4. The Celtics are healthy coming into this game and we think they are primed for a big performance tonight.

The Kings are one of the best ATS teams this season (17-13-1) while the Blazers are one of the worst (12-21). We think those trends will continue on Wednesday. Damian Lillard is doubtful for this game and this team stinks with him in the lineup but without him they are in real trouble, especially against the most consistent Kings team we have seen in a few years. The Kings have won four straight entering this game and they are playing with a ton of confidence right now. The Blazers have dropped 10 of 11 and six straight games. The road team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings and we expect the Kings to get a pretty easy win here whether Lillard plays or not.

We think the Timberwolves are a good buy low team right now and they should be able to challenge for the win here in Denver tonight. Denver hasn’t covered in three straight games and they really should have beaten a worn-down Clippers team by more than four last time out as that teams was missing a bunch of starters and playing their fourth game in five nights. The Wolves are the better team here despite the records and they come in confident after a home win vs. Atlanta last time out. Minnesota is 13-5 ATS in the last 18 meetings in Denver, and we thought this line should be closer to PK with a lean to Minny at that number so we think there is great value here plus the points.

LA is in a freefall right now and they have lost three straight games – to the Mavs, Lakers and Nuggets, no less. Blake Griffin is out and Chris Paul is very questionable for this game against his old club. Redick is also questionable and it’s hard to believe he will play here. So this deep team all the sudden becomes really thin and now they have to stop the losing streak playing their fifth game in seven nights. The players they will have to try and stop the losing streak aren’t the kind of guys that can lead the team but they are more complementary players, and we think this team will be worn out here and will have to regroup after the new year because they play at Houston on Friday and at OKC on Saturday so they are a team to fade until they get their strength back.

Detroit has won four straight in this series and we think they get the job done again tonight. The Pistons really play well defensively against the Bucks and Milwaukee hasn’t scored more than 91 points in the last three meetings. We think the Pistons will clamp down on defense again in this matchup and this team seems to have figured some things out as they have covered two straight, against last season’s NBA Finals participants no less, including a 16-point blowout of the Cavs. We think the Pistons win this one pretty easily.

The Pacers have been a real lousy bet on the road as they are 4-12 ATS this season, and we think this line is a bit short as well. The Wizards are a solid 10-7 ATS at home and this is their sweet spot as they are 4-1 ATS as a small favorite like this. The Wizards have covered in six of their last seven games and they are overall playing their best basketball of the season right now. Indiana has covered in only one of their last seven and they have dropped three straight SU coming into this game. Washington has covered in six straight at home, and that is a trend we see continuing here on Wednesday.

The Jazz have had three nights off. We think that can work against a team like this that tends to struggle offensively at times and they could be even more rusty than normal. And this team is just not in good form anyways right now as they have dropped three straight games and covered in only one of their last five. This has never been a great road team either and we just don’t see them dominating the Lakers at Staples Center and think there is a very good chance that this one is close. The Lakers are coming off a confidence-building win over the Clippers and even though they don’t have a lot of wins lately they are 4-2 ATS in their last six so they are playing a lot of close games even though they aren’t winning a lot.

OKC is 2-6 in the last eight games in Miami and we think that this will be a close game that the home team has a chance to win straight up. Miami has been solid ATS this season when not much was expected from this squad. OKC has a nice record but they have played a home-heavy schedule so far and we don’t think they are as good as their record may suggest and they still get a lot of public betting love since they have been so good in past years so the oddsmakers give too many points sometimes, and that definitely seems like the case here for Tuesday. The Heat have been playing well lately and have a couple OT losses that have made them look worse on paper than they have played on the court.

These teams played last week and it was a hard-fought OT loss by the Grizzlies. Since that game was so well played on both sides and the Grizzlies took a loss, we think that game will still be on the minds of the Grizzlies in this one and revenge is definitely in play here tonight. We already know the Grizzlies match up well here. And you can add in the fact that Boston just hasn’t been good at covering numbers here at home where they are 4-8 ATS this season so far. Boston is 1-3 ATS when laying 7 or more points this season and we think the Grizzlies will be really tough in this game and they will not only cover but challenge for the win.

Paul and Griffin are out. Redick is out too. Raymond Felton, CP3’s backup, is sick. This team seems to be staring a freefall with consecutive losses to the Mavs and Lakers, and now they play a team in a back-to-back situation that is better than both of those clubs. This is also their fourth game in five nights and this team is just worn out. You could see it last night in the Lakers loss. Just don’t see how this team is going to regroup and win against a Nuggets team that has had a couple nights off. And this is a good revenge spot for Denver after they got blown out on this same court less than a week ago. They should go all out for a win tonight, and we think that this is a very easy call.

The Pelicans haven’t been playing well but that has kept the line manageable here and we just think they are a much better team than the Mavericks. We think the Christmas break will help this New Orleans team regroup and that they will play with a lot of effort tonight. Dallas has won two straight and we think they may rest on their laurels a bit here and the Pels should play with more urgency, especially since they have lost to Dallas in two straight meetings. Anthony Davis should have a monster night tonight for New Orleans.

Orlando has played better on the road than at home for whatever reason, and we think that trend will continue tonight. This team is 6-10 at home while 8-8 on the road. They are 4-11-1 ATS at home and 9-7 ATS on the road. Sometimes lousy teams play like this because there is more pressure on them in home games and they aren’t good at handling pressure. Hurting the Magic even more in tonight’s game is the fact that Evan Fournier, their leading scorer, is listed as questionable. This team already stinks on the offensive end and will probably struggle to score against Memphis with him and definitely if they are without him tonight.

Blake Griffin is out. Chris Paul is questionable with a hamstring issue. If he was able to go you have to think Doc Rivers would hold him out as hamstrings can be tricky and linger and if Paul and Griffin are out for any considerable amount of time then the Clips are in real trouble. But even if Paul plays we still like the Lakers tonight. The Clips used to dominate this series but are now 1-4 ATS in the last five meetings. The Clippers have covered in only two of their last seven games and the bench hasn’t been doing too well lately. With Paul hampered or out the role players have a lot more pressure and they can’t play to the best of their ability without the facilitation of Paul. He makes everyone better. We think this will be close whether CP3 plays or not. But if he is out we think the Clippers are on upset alert.

Portland has really taken a step back this year and they sit at 13-18 on the season after making the playoffs last year and even winning a series. The Spurs suffered a rare loss last night against the Clippers in a game where their shots just didn’t fall. But if they don’t fall for the Spurs one night they probably will the next, and we think this is a great opportunity for them to bounce back. Maybe Pop limits minutes for the starters here. It’s more about the system in San Antonio rather than the players to an extent and they can play well no matter who is on the court and the coach will maximize the potential of those players that are in the lineup. Even though SA is on a back-to-back, this will be the Blazers third game in four nights, so we think it’s a wash pretty much in terms of fatigue.

Charlotte has won three of the last four meetings in this series and they have covered in six of the last seven. They have had two nights off before this game and before their last one they had two nights off, so rest is really in their favor tonight. This team ended a losing streak and has now won two straight so they are playing with confidence right now, and this is a better overall team than the Bulls too. Chicago has lost four of their last five games and they have covered in only two of their last 10. We think the Hornets will cruise to a pretty easy win in this one.

The Spurs suffered one of their worst losses of the season to these Clippers, in San Antonio, early in the season. That was a 24-point home loss for San Antonio. That is when the Clippers were playing better than anyone in the league and when the Spurs had some struggles at the start of the season. Now the roles have changed as the Clippers have been struggling and now are dealing with the Injury bug as Blake Griffin is out for around a month and the Spurs have looked like one of the best in the NBA again lately and they ended Houston’s long winning streak last time out. We have no doubt they have had this game circled since that bad home loss and we think they dominate tonight.

We really like the way this Wizards team is playing and they have now covered in six of their last seven games, winning in five of those contests. This team has had a bad reputation the last couple of seasons and the start of this one for not getting the job done at the betting window and that will keep their spreads manageable if they keep playing well. And that is certainly the case tonight as we think there is some nice value with the underdog here. The Bulls won big last time out against a Detroit team that didn’t show up, but before that they had lost three straight and we can’t help but think that they are a bit overrated right now. The Wizards will put up a much tougher fight than the Pistons did the other night and this should be a competitive game with a real live underdog threatening for the win.

We had the Pistons big on Monday and they played one of the worst games in the NBA this season in a huge blowout loss at Chicago. This team has a lot of ability but they don’t come to play every night. However, we think that this is a great spot for them to show up. For one, that loss was a complete embarrassment and there will be a lot of criticism if they don’t play well here in a very winnable game back at home. The team was called out by Van Gundy in the media, and we think these guys will respond tonight, not to mention that Memphis is on a back-to-back after a really hard-fought game last night vs. Boston that went to OT, so this is a real tough B-2-B against what should be a motivated Pistons team.

We had the Bucks last night as these teams played the first of a home-and-home, back-to-back, and we took a bad beat on Milwaukee as they lost in OT as an underdog. When teams play in series like this you always have to take a hard look at the team that lost the previous night, and we actually like the Bucks even better tonight than last. They showed they can hang with the Cavs, and they will be even more motivated tonight to avoid the sweep at the hands of the best team in the east. We think that the back-to-back situation also eliminates the home-court edge a bit and that the Cavs are normally getting a point or two added to their spread by the bookies each night, and that definitely seems like the case here.

Utah has played the Warriors real tough the last two meetings. They are pretty healthy right now and this will be a good barometer to see where they stack up in the Western Conference hierarchy. We expect them to come to play tonight. The Jazz have only been underdogs of more than eight points twice this season, and they have covered in both of those contests. Meanwhile, the Warriors have not been good at covering big lines as they are 8-14 ATS this season when laying nine or more. We think Utah comes to play and keeps this one within double digits.

We think that this Bucks team is very underrated. They have had three nights off heading into this game and that is a major advantage as they will be gunning for the world champs big time tonight and that extra rest gives them a real advantage here. The Cavs have been off too, but this is just another game for them while Milwaukee will go all out in this one, and they are coming off a home-and-home sweep over the Bulls so they will be very confident here. Kevin Love is out for Cleveland, so that hurts. And this Cavs team is generally shaded by the oddsmakers and we feel that is the case tonight laying this many on the road to a very solid Bucks team.

Don’t care how well the Rockets have been playing. When you get the Spurs plus points (against anyone but the Warriors) you take it (note: this line moved just before release but we still love the Spurs here laying a point). This team has lost only once on the road this season. They have won and covered four of five in this series. They have the defensive acumen to slow down the Rockets 3-point barrage. They have won eight of nine themselves and we know they can handle a high-pressure situation like this since they have done it so many times in the past. The Rockets have had a couple nights off and that normally hurts momentum for a hot shooting team like this.

These are a pair of offensively-challenged teams, and we have a hard time believing they will total 200 or more in this game. Both these teams are in the Bottom 4 in the NBA for points scored. Orlando has been giving up a lot of points lately, but this is an opponent which they can get back to their strong defense against as the Heat average around 97 points per game. The under is 6-1 in the Heat’s last seven games on one day of rest, and that seems to be the sweet spot for them to step up on the defensive end. We also think the Magic will be competitive here in a very winnable game. We think they are the superior team in this matchup and this line looks off to us.

We just think that this Hawks team is a good “buy low” squad right now. They have played some bad basketball this month, but we have seen some signs that they are improving lately and they definitely aren’t as bad of a basketball team as we have seen from them at some points this month. We think this is a very winnable game here, and against a public team like OKC we feel the bookies are basically begging the public to take the home team here with this small line. The Thunder have hit a rough patch lately, winning only two of their last five, and one of those wins was against the Suns. Atlanta has been a good underdog team lately and we think that will continue here on Monday as we expect them to win this one straight up.