Sports Picks & Predictions

Love the line value here as we had the Rockets as a slight favorite. Miami is the second worst betting team in the NBA at 9-19-1 ATS. They are just barely better than the worst betting team, Dallas. They are coming in on a back-to-back here after OKC took them to the brink last night. They won but didn’t cover, and we don’t see them playing a better game than they did last night. The Rockets have been playing well and have won three of four. They are 15-12 ATS on the season, meaning they are surpassing oddsmakers expectations on a regular basis. The Rockets have covered six straight at home, and we think they have a great chance to win outright.

Atlanta is banged up and this team stinks on the road. The Magic have two more wins at home than the Hawks have on the road. We had this game handicapped at PK and think the home team has a great chance to win outright. They have won three straight and covered four straight and are in much better form at the moment.

The Pelicans have won seven straight and are playing as well as any team in the NBA right now. Utah has lost two straight and three of four, and the shine has come off their hot start a bit. New Orleans has a better offense and a much better defense, and they should dominate this game on both sides. This team looks very headstrong this season and we don’t think they will have a letdown after a pair of big wins over the Suns.

We were on the Spurs for their last two wins, as we saw a slight upswing for them after losing nine games SU and ATS. Now they are fat and happy after two wins over Houston and Miami, two struggling teams, but now they are probably going to revert to their tanking ways and they face a true championship contender in Cleveland. Mitchell is questionable here. But we think the Cavs win by double digits whether he plays or not. This team plays excellent team basketball and the sum is greater than the individual parts. The Spurs are a struggling offensive team and the Cavs posses the No. 1 defense. San Antonio gives up more than 120 PPG, so we don’t think the Cavs will have any problem scoring enough to get this one over the posted number. Cleveland has covered in five of six meetings and four straight in San Antonio.

To say this road trip has been rough for the Clippers would be an understatement. They have lost two straight, against the Magic in OT and then at the Heat. This is a long season, but this seems like a very crucial game for the struggling Clippers. We never know who will start for LA as their two stars are never a sure thing to make it on the court. But it’s very likely the Big Two should play here. Even if one of them doesn’t, this line will likely swing, but we won’t be deterred if it does. We think this is a great chance for a double digit win even if PG or Kawhi sit. Washington is coming in on a back-to-back. They are banged up as well. They haven’t been playing well, either. But the biggest thing is that we expect the Clippers to play with a sense of urgency here as a loss or another bad game might be the time to hit the panic button. We don’t think that will be needed, however, as we expect a comfortable win and we think the stock will be rising in the coming weeks for LA. Oh yeah, and they have covered in five of the last six meetings, so they normally play well against this opponent.

The Pistons were a sexy pick to be an improved team this season and possibly sneak into the play in tourney. They got off to a slow start and had some major injuries to deal with. But this team has been getting healthier and playing better. They have been a particularly good bet when getting big points, and they are 7-2 ATS when getting double digit points on the spread. These teams played recently in Detroit and Memphis won by 10. We just don’t see them replicating a double digit win in two games so close together.

Make no mistake, the Spurs have been playing some of the worst basketball in the NBA and have been making an art out of tanking. But this looks like a very winnable game for them and they are going to get a win and cover at a certain point. We think tonight is the night. This team shot out of the gate with some great performances and was once one of the better bets in the league. Then some injuries hit and they fell off the cliff. But we think the value has swung the other way now and they should be a favorite here. Houston has only one more win than the Spurs. They are 3-12 away from home. They are 3-7-1 in the last 11 meetings. The Spurs have had extended rest coming into this one and should get a couple of their injured soldiers back for this game, and we expect a rare win from the home team tonight.

Miami is one of the worst ATS teams in the NBA at 8-15-1 ATS. They were one of the best last season but they have not lived up to oddsmaker expectations so far this season. Miami enters this one on a back-to-back, while Detroit had the night off Monday. Detroit has struggled to start the season and has dealt with many injuries, but they are starting to get players back. They have been a very strong bet when getting more than seven points, and they have also covered in all of the last four meetings.

The Jazz got off to a hot start but have cooled off big time and are now looking more like the team we expected to see entering the season. They also have some key injuries that are holding them back. They got a win last time out but that was their first in six games. Utah has excelled in the underdog role for betting purposes, but they are just 2-6 ATS as a favorite this season. Indiana is one of the best ATS teams in the league, and they quietly get the job done night in and night out. They are 8-3 ATS when getting more than three points as a dog. They are also 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in Utah and 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings overall.

Dallas is a very poor road team at 1-7 on the season. They have failed to cover in five straight on the road. Detroit is 8-3-2 ATS as an underdog of 7.5 or more, and they have served bettors well as a big underdog. Dallas is 2-11-1 ATS as a favorite of three or more points. At 5-14-1 ATS, this is the absolute worst ATS team in the league, cashing less than 27 percent of their games for bettors. Detroit’s only ATS loss in their last six games was last time out in a 30-point home loss to the Knicks. They will want to put in a much better effort in front of the home fans here. This is another inflated line for Dallas and this is an easy call to go against them.

The Suns are rolling lately but they have played a very easy schedule. This Kings team is very underrated right now and they have been one of the best ATS teams in the NBA this season. They didn’t play well in their recent three-game road trip so they will want to bring their A Game tonight against a Western Conference rival back at home. The Kings have covered in four of the last five meetings, and we think that trend continues here on Monday.

The Pacers are one of the best ATS teams this season and this team is quietly getting the job done and staying off the radar for public bettors. They are 12-6 ATS on the season, including a 5-2 ATS road mark. They are deserving favorites here. The Clippers will be without their stars again here. And although this team is one of the deepest in the league, it’s still a work in progress and the Clippers haven’t been able to string together much consistent play. Indiana is coming in off an impressive blowout over the Nets and we think they play with a lot of confidence here in LA.

The Lakers are a bad team and not a championship contender. But they have won four of five and are playing decently well right now. The same can’t be said for the Spurs, who started strong but have since fallen off a cliff. They have lost seven straight and covered only one of those contests. They seem to have fully embraced the tanking strategy, and we don’t see them putting up much of a fight here. The Lakers have covered in five of the last seven trips to San Antonio.

Minnesota has won five straight and they are playing with a lot of confidence right now. They are playing the best they have so far this season. Charlotte is just not a good team right now and will likely be missing a couple top players here. We think this game has blowout potential and the Wolves should win by double digits. Minnesota does well on the road against bad teams (8-2 ATS run) and we expect a dominant performance here. We have stayed away from the Wolves a lot this season because of a slow start but it looks like this team is figuring things out and the Wolves seem like a good Buy Low option right now for bettors.

After a 5-game skid, the Cavs are swinging back in the other direction and have now won two straight. This team has been streaky lately but this looks like an excellent spot for them to continue their win streak against a Hawks team that plays better at home. The Hawks have dropped three of four ATS, and they got throttled by Boston on their recent homestand. The Cavs normally step up big at home in these marquee game type situations. Atlanta hasn’t had much luck here in Cleveland as they have covered in only one of their last six meetings. We see that trend continuing here on Monday.

The Kings are the top ATS team in the league at 11-3 ATS. With all the big stories in the NBA this season, this team is flying under the radar. The Pistons are coming off a string of big games against big-name teams, and this matchup won’t move the needle for them as much as recent games against the Clippers, Lakers and Celtics. Sacramento is the No. 1 offense in the NBA and averaging more than 12 PPG more than the Pistons.

Sacramento is 10-3 ATS on the season and playing their best basketball of the season at the moment. This is starting to look an awful lot like a playoff team. They have won four straight: Golden State, Cleveland and Brooklyn were included in that bunch. They are coming off a 30+ point win over the Nets. They have the No. 2 offense in the NBA this season and are facing the league’s worst defense. We just think the Kings will be able to outscore the Spurs tonight. They have put up 120 or more in four straight and 153 against the Nets. They have also covered in 9 of 13 meetings and 4 of 5 in Sacramento.

The Mavs played a grudge match last night against the rival Clippers, who they have meet in the playoff quite a bit. That was no doubt a big game for them. Now they enter this one on a B2B and face a Texas rival. When two Texas teams play, we always try and look for a reason to take the underdog as they normally don’t want to get rolled over on. And this seems like a letdown spot for Dallas here after that big game last night.

This Pelicans team has been inconsistent but they have played a road-heavy schedule this season so far and we think they will excel here at home against the Grizzlies. We think New Orleans has a higher ceiling this season. And the Grizzlies have been overrated on the road, where they have failed to cover in five straight games.

Cleveland is the better team right now and they have had one of the best starts to the season of any team. They enter, however, having lost two straight. Those were both close games, and the Cavs didn’t embarrass themselves. But they will be amped to get back on the winning track against the defending champs. Not only is Golden State playing mediocre basketball and bad defense, but they are getting their opponents’ best shot every night. Everyone wants to take down the champs, and we are sure Cleveland will bring their A Game here.

The Hawks are normally very good at home and are coming off a loss to the Jazz here, and we don’t see them losing two straight at home. They have covered 10 of 14 against Philly in Atlanta, and we expect that trend to continue here on Thursday. Take the Hawks with confidence on Thursday.

The Bucks suffered their first loss of the season last time out at Atlanta. It was a blowout and an embarrassing loss. But this is a great bounce back spot for what has been the best team in the NBA. After a hot start, OKC has come back to earth a bit and has lost three straight SU and ATS. They are pretty much a one-man team with SGA leading the way, but the Bucks have the defensive pieces to slow him down. Both meetings last year were blowouts, and we expect more of the same here.

Golden State is off to a tough start to the season, and we think this will be a close game. Sacramento is 3-1 ATS on the road this season, where they normally get generous odds from the bookies. And that certainly looks like the case tonight. Sacramento has won and covered three of four, and they are playing well at the moment.

To say the Clippers got off to a slow start was an understatement. This team looked like one of the worst in the NBA and Kawhi Leonard has been sidelines again. But this team has won three straight and they are starting to play well together. Utah has been playing incredible basketball to start the season, but we don’t see this is a playoff team. The Clippers have some of the best depth in the NBA this season and we think they will take this game very seriously because of the slow start.

Charlotte has been a decent bet this season so far at 3-2 ATS. They are coming in on a back-to-back and off a blowout loss at Orlando, but we think they were looking ahead to this game against the defending champs. Golden State has faced some heavy hitters in Miami and Phoenix the last two games, so we don’t think they will be too excited about a trip to Charlotte. The Hornets have won four of six meetings outright and we think they will put up a fight today.

These teams played here on Wednesday and Atlanta scored a five-point win. The Pistons are underrated and this is a possible play in tourney team. We don’t think they will play worse than Wednesday, and they were in that game all the way with a chance to win at the end. We think there’s a great chance they play even better as it’s tough to beat a team consecutive games like this.

Detroit is off to a slow start, but this team is not a bottom feeder this season. We think they are a contender for the play in tourney and a team in the rise. This is just too many points as a home dog. Detroit has played three of four on the road, but their one home game was a solid win, and we think they will be primed for a big performance tonight. The Hawks rarely play well here and are 0-4 ATS in their last four visits and 2-6 ATS in their last eight meetings overall. The Hawks are 1-2 ATS despite playing all three at home against a weak schedule.

These are supposed to be two tanking teams, but here they sit at 5-1 ATS on the season. But Utah has shown the ability to win games and not just cover, and they are 3-0 on the season and have looked very impressive. They have the No. 1 offense in the NBA thus far through three games. They are on a back-to-back here, but we don’t see that bothering this young team. We see another high scoring affair here and expect the Jazz to pull away in the fourth quarter.

Both teams are 2-0 SU and ATS, but one team is a championship contender and one team is playing over its head. We think this will be a high scoring game but we think this is where Utah comes back to earth a bit. New Orleans has looked very good to start the season. These teams normally play a high scoring game, and we expect the same here tonight but New Orleans wins by double digits. They might get 130+ on their own.

This is one of those matchups we look forward to each season as it’s pretty much easy money to take the Clippers… and you can pretty much bet them blindly. This is a one-sided rivalry because the Lakers are the Clippers biggest rival but the Lakers have more traditional rivals. So the Clippers always give it everything they have, especially since they are considered second tier in their city. When healthy, the Clippers probably have the strongest roster in the NBA, and they have a healthy roster to start the season. The Lakers look like they might have another long season, and this team will normally be overrated because they are the biggest public betting team in the NBA. We think the Clips will want to come out strong on opening night.

We don’t take many double digit favorites in the NBA, but we think this one is warranted. Minnesota has just crushed OKC in recent meetings. Like CRUSHED. Like all three games were decided by 30 or more. OKC was one of the best ATS teams in the league last season. We used them a lot. We will probably use them a lot midseason once this young team starts to gel. And they have a great leader in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. At some point, he will get the best out of this roster. But this team is much different than the one that covered so many games last season and there are going to be some growing pains. Minnesota has their best team in years and a legit contender. We think OKC runs into a buzzsaw here in the season opener.

The Sixers seem very solid heading into the new season and we think this team is in a great place and primed for a strong start and a possible championship run. Boston not only has the hangover from losing in the finals, but they had a turbulent offseason to say the last with their coach being suspended for the season and losing offseason acquisition Gallinari for the season with an injury. And we forget that this team started very slow last season before turning it on around the holidays, and we think a repeat could be in the cards. Philly has covered in seven of the last eight meetings. Their non-cover during that span? The 135-87 beatdown in February. We have no doubt the Sixers remember that game and they will want to play their best here against a team they normally exceed expectations against.

We are surprised that the Warriors have a chance to close things out tonight as we really liked the Celtics to win this series. They are not out of it yet, however, and we expect them to take care of business tonight at home. The spread normally hasn’t come into play too much in this postseason, and we don’t think it will come into play tonight as the team that wins normally does so by a large margin.

This series has worked out for the Zig Zag Theory to perfection, with each team trading wins/covers and the total going the opposite way each game. We still think Boston is the better team and we think they have a great chance for the outright win here. Curry went off in Game 4 after the Celtics had been in control most of the way through. But we expect a focused group tonight and we think they break the stalemate tonight with a chance to go back to Boston to close things out in Game 6.

The Warriors had some injury concerns with Steph Curry but it looks like he is good to go for Game 4. But we are not sure he will be 100% effective. If this was the regular season, he would probably take some time off to properly heal. And there is always the chance of reaggravating the injury as the Celtics are one of the most physical teams in the league. But even with Curry at full strength, we like the Celtics here. We think they are the superior team, and the hungrier one. The Warriors have a decent supporting cast for their stars, but the team goes cold too often unlike the best championship teams from Golden State. And then there are Draymond Green’s antics. He is a great defender but he is just not helping the team a lot in this series. With the Big Game 3 win, the Celtics have their eyes on the prize and we don’t see them blowing home court advantage here. We think they get another comfortable win tonight.

We think the Celtics are underrated in this series and we think they have a great chance to pull off the series win. We do think this series will go far. We saw Golden State dominate the postseason so far, and that is why we have this steep series line here, but we think the Warriors had a pretty easy path. Memphis is a young team that is still learning playoff basketball and Dallas still needs some pieces to be a championship contender. The Nuggets were a pushover. But Boston has had a much tougher path. They swept a Nets team that was one of the title favorites. They beat the defending champs in the next round and then the No. 1 seed Miami Heat in seven games, winning Game 7 on the road no less. They are more battle tested. And while we have a ton of respect for Golden State and what they have done, they aren’t as hungry as the Celtics and this isn’t the best team they have had during their championship runs. The Celtics are coming off a couple grueling series, but they have had three days off here, which will be plenty of rest. We think Golden State has been off too long for this and they should be a little rusty. Boston always gets up for this opponent and they have covered eight of the last nine meetings here, a trend that stretches back years since these teams don’t play often. Boston has lost the last two Game 1s, which put them in a hole in each series early. We think they bring their A Game here to get the upper hand and steal home court advantage. Boston was a Top 5 ATS team this season and often underestimated by the oddsmakers. We think that is the case here for Game 1 again, and we think the Celtics have a great chance for the outright win.

Miami is getting healthy again and this is too many points as this is the biggest spread in the series so far. We think this will be a very competitive game because the Heat have some players back and if they win they know they will be favored in Game 7 at home. Miami has covered in 11 of the last 15 meetings here in Boston.

Just when one team looks bad one game in these NBA Playoffs, they turn around and look dominant the next game, and point spread have not even come into play that much here in the postseason. This series has the look of one that can go all the way, and the next page in that script is for the Celtics to deliver a dominating performance tonight in front of the home fans.

The Mavs have shown themselves to be very resilient in these playoffs. We don’t take much from their Game 1 performance. Just like Boston, they can bounce back here and if they win then they have the upper hand and home court advantage in this series. They will no doubt shoot a lot better than they did in Game 1. We expect a close, high scoring game here and we still think this will be a good series despite the Game 1 result.

We will give Boston a mulligan for their Game 1 performance. They didn’t come to play, and two starters being out did not help. Smart should be back tonight, and he will help on both ends of the court. This team is well coached and very talented. And they will be able to make the necessary adjustments, especially on the defensive end. We think they have a great chance to win outright here in a low-scoring affair.  

We have been big on Boston this whole series and this is not going to change here for Game 7. This has been one of the strongest teams in the NBA all season after a slow start, and we feel they have a championship-caliber squad this season. They are hungry. They have also been one of the best betting teams in the NBA this season and one you can trust laying points. They have also covered in 12 of the last 16 meetings (one push).

This just seems like a 7-game series to us, and the Celtics just need a win here and they will be heavy favorites to advance at home. Besides Game 1, all their losses were games that could have easily won, but when they have won they have been dominant. This has been one of the best ATS teams this season and we think they are being undervalued again here on Friday as we have them as a slight favorite and we expect them to win outright.

As a Clippers fan, we know all too well that the Mavs have a knack for taking series to Game 7 despite all odds. We expect Dallas to lock down on defense tonight and Luka should go into Superman mode with the season on the line at home. They have been a different team at home in this series and both games have gone under, and we think we will see a repeat here tonight.

The Grizzlies seemed to have given their last gasp last time but still came up short after leading most of the game. Then more bad news came as word arrived that Ja Morant will likely miss the rest of the postseason. So this team for the first time this season knows that there are no reinforcements of their star coming to help, and during the regular season when Morant was out the team performed at a high level knowing he would be back and they just needed to keep the team afloat. Golden State is the better team in the better mental state, and we expect a comfortable win tonight.

Dallas had an off game in Game 1 and they still almost covered. They were outscored in the first three quarters and we think we will see a more complete game from them here as they play a close game with a chance to win. It looks like the Suns don’t have any answer for Doncic and we expect the rest of the team to step up and have a better game. Dallas is one of the best defensive teams in the NBA and they will make some adjustments tonight to slow down the Suns offense.

Boston played very poorly in Game 1 and we expect this team to bounce back strong here. They have high expectations this postseason, and losing here would be devastating for their series chances. Boston had covered seven straight in this series before the Game 1 loss, and we think they match up well here and expect a comfortable win from the home team tonight.

We think this will be a series but we think Game 1 will be all Suns. They didn’t seem to miss a beat when Booker went down and they have played well despite that. They have covered in seven of the last nine meetings, and they have won the last three meetings by at least 7 points. We expect both teams to play strong defense here, but the Suns will pull away late for the comfortable win.

Dallas has covered four straight in this series and we think they are the superior team. Utah just doesn’t have it this season and we expect some big changes in the offseason, which will start tomorrow for the Jazz. Mitchell will probably play here and he is probably being forced back too soon in a desperate move and may hurt the team more than help on the court tonight. Dallas has some history in the postseason with series dragging on too long so we think they will treat this like a Game 7 and lock down on defense.

The Pelicans aren’t your typical 8 seed. They retooled the roster mid season and this team has some nice veteran leadership now and a strong roster. The Suns are a team we did not believe in last season. We were wrong on that front as they advanced to the NBA Finals, but they got a lot of good luck because of major injuries to opponents in their path. But they will not have that same type of luck this season and we see them facing some adversity as they already have taken a blow with the Booker injury. We expect a close game here and one that the Pelicans very much have a chance to win outright.

The Bucks lost game 2 and possibly one of their better players but we think this team plays great team basketball and they will want to use this loss as a wake up call and steal home court advantage back in Game 3. The Bucks have covered 11 of the last 12 meetings here in Chicago and we expect that trend to hold strong tonight.

We try to look at an NBA Playoff series beforehand and see how it plays out. We don’t think the Jazz have it this season and this team was really disappointing all season besides a few flashes where they looked like last year’s team. But we expect the Mavs to win this series, and they are a good team even without their star in the lineup. Doncic is questionable here, but we think they have a great chance to win without him as they did in Game 2. With the Game 2 win, Dallas has now covered in six of seven meetings. They are the much better defensive team, and that really matters in the postseason.

This is a very public line in our opinion. The Nets played a very good Game 1 and still came out on the losing side and Boston had control of things for much of the game. We feel that was their best chance for an upset in Boston and they blew it. We think that close scare will have Boston playing even better this time. There’s a reason Brooklyn was in the play in this season. This team dealt with a lot of roster issues but they were also one of the most disappointing betting teams in the NBA and always overvalued by the oddsmakers. That is the case again here in Game 2 as we think Boston earns a comfortable win.

Brooklyn has just been a mess this season. They haven’t been consistent and injuries are at fault somewhat but there also seems to be a lack of chemistry on this team. They face a Boston team that we think is a real contender, and we think Boston will want to get off to a good start in this series. They are the No. 1 defensive team in the NBA and they are rested and hungry.

The Timberwolves are a great story this year. But we were hoping they won the play in game because we wanted to go against them in the first round, especially in this first game. This just seems like a team that is on the verge but not quite ready yet, and Memphis is a real contender this year. The Grizzlies have had extra rest and time to prepare for this matchup, and this doesn’t seem like a team that would be rusty entering the first game of the postseason. They have also owned Minnesota from a betting perspective. They have covered 24 of the last 32 meetings here in Memphis and 16 of the last 21 meetings overall. We think they will be ready for their moment in the spotlight here in Game 1.

Cleveland was one of the big surprise teams early in the season and they got here because of phenomenal defense. But this team fell off in the latter part of the season because that defense didn’t play as consistently and they faltered too much once they rid themselves of the underdog role and turned to the favorite. The Hawks are 8-2 SU and ATS in their last 10 games. This team is playing extremely well right now and we think they win convincingly here. We think both teams step up on the defensive end.

The Clippers played well down the stretch. Better than the Timberwolves. And they have had Paul George back and he has stepped right in and was not too rusty. The Clippers are 15-6-1 ATS in the last 22 meetings in Minnesota, and this is a place they always play well. With George back in the mix and no clear dominant team in the West, the Clippers have a chance to go far if they can make the playoffs, especially if they can get Kawhi back at some point. We think they will play to win this one and we think they have a great chance.

Dallas need a win for seeding and the Spurs have two road games coming up in the play in tourney in hopes to make the playoffs. While they would normally be up for an in-state rival, they won’t have any focus on this game at all. They don’t want to use too much energy here. We don’t see any defense from the Spurs here and key players will get limited minutes. The Mavs need to win and they will have time off during the play in tourney, so they will play hard here. Blowout.

The Suns have had the No. 1 seed clinched for awhile. That has reflected in their play on the court as they have failed to cover in four straight and they have lost two of three outright. They come in on a back-to-back after a win over the Lakers last night. They probably had motivation there to send the Lakers packing from postseason contention. But now they head on the road for a B2B and we don’t see them really caring about this game too much. And they don’t want to risk injury. With the Clippers playing in the play-in, they can’t afford to rest here in the final games, and they need to keep momentum going, They are also actively trying to get Paul George back into the mix and to gel with the team before the play-in. So we think they will be real motivated here. They have won and covered in three of four and should have covered in Chicago but lost in OT as an underdog.

Philly just doesn’t look good lately and it’s obvious that they are overrated by the oddsmakers right now. They have covered only two of their last seven games. They lost tough games to Milwaukee and Phoenix, and they looked in a great spot to bounce back with a win in Detroit, but they scored only 94 points and lost to one of the worst teams in the NBA. The Hornets have won and covered in three of four, and they barely missed a cover in their loss to Denver. We see this as a competitive game from both sides, and we have to take the points here. Philly hasn’t covered in the last four meetings (three Charlotte covers and a push).

Two bad teams but the Kings are a much better club, and they seem to be building for the future while the Rockets are kind of spinning their wheels. We feel that the Kings are a justified road favorite here. The Rockets scored consecutive wins over a tanking Blazers team and they played San Antonio tough in a recent regional rivalry last time out, and we feel they are a bit Fat and Happy and won’t give much effort here.

The Bulls haven’t been playing too well and they are on a B2B but they are the much better team here and they need a win tonight. They are No. 5 now in the EC standings and they don’t want to drop down into the play in area. They are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Washington, and this is a chance for an easy win against a Wizards team that doesn’t have the same motivation.

This is more of a fade of Miami than a statement about Sacramento. Miami is in a freefall right now and this is a very public number. Miami has dropped four straight and they have covered only one of their last nine. They had that very public blowup on the sideline last week, and that is the type of thing that can linger for a long time. Can the Heat win this one and get back on track? Absolutely. But we just don’t see this team getting back on track in a big way with a blowout. The Kings enter having won two straight. They have covered three in a row as they also lost to the Suns in OT. So they are playing well right now. The Kings are 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings so they normally get up for this opponent.

The Pistons have been one of the best betting teams since the beginning of Feb as they have covered in 14 of their last 16 games. They face a Washington team that is on a back-to-back after playing a much more important game last night against Milwaukee. They had a bit of a rally in the second half and used lots of energy, and we don’t think they will have much left here on Friday night.

The Bucks started off the season slow. Maybe it was the NBA Finals hangover. But no matter, they are in playoff form now and have won nine of 11 games. They have covered in eight of those games, so despite lots of respect from the oddsmakers they are still getting the job done in a big way. They have motivation as well as they will want to get that No. 1 seed, and they are currently a couple games back of Miami. Washington is mathematically still alive, but who are we kidding. This team will be eliminated soon, and right now they are probably just playing out the string. If their last game was any indication, that is exactly the case as they lost to the Rockets by 18. This team is getting blown out on a regular basis, and we don’t see the Bucks breaking too much of a sweat to win this one by double digits.

Orlando is coming off one of its biggest wins of the year last night at home against Golden State. Now they have to turn around on a back-to-back and play a team that is desperate for a win and one they just beat at home on Sunday. OKC will be looking for revenge. We just think this is a big letdown spot for Orlando and this team doesn’t deserve to be a road favorite over any team in the NBA. OKC is one of the best ATS teams in the NBA at 43-25-4 on the season. They have dealt with a lot of injuries but they still manage to play above oddsmakers expectations, and they probably have the best player on the court right now in Alexander. OKC has covered in six of the last seven meetings. OKC has had a very tough schedule. If they are to end the losing streak, this is the game to do it.

We like to back a good team after a bad loss, and that is the case here tonight. Last time we saw the Bucks they lost by almost 20 in Minnesota. They have had two days to let that loss go, and we think they will be motivated and prepared against a regional rival here. The Greek Freak should be back here as he is probable, and he is well rested after missing the Minnesota game. He hasn’t been out long enough to be rusty, but he has been out long enough to regain some energy that is crucial at this point of the season. Chicago is on a back-to-back here, and we see a dominating win from the home team.

Dallas has lost two straight and they were embarrassed last time out on the road in Charlotte and they lost to Philly on the road also. This is getting down to the nitty gritty with the postseason in sight and we don’t see the Mavs dropping three straight, and they are back home for this one. Both these teams are close together in the standings and this is a crucial game for the Mavs as they need to fend off the charging Wolves but also avoid dropping down into the play in seedings. They have won eight of their last 11 so we aren’t to worried about those two losses. They are in fine form overall. And the Wolves have had some nice wins for sure but their recent run is a bit deceiving as they have faced teams with missing stars and many bad teams. They will face a very motivated team tonight and one that is the better club, and this line is more than fair. Dallas has a strong betting history against the Wolves as they are 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings in Dallas and 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings overall.

Props to the Timberwolves. They have been playing great and are one of the best surprises of the NBA season. But their recent run has come against a lot of bad teams. We think the Buck stops here today, so to speak. Milwaukee is red hot also, and they have covered six of seven. They are coming off a long rest and they have motivation for the postseason here.

The Clippers have covered in three of five, but they are playing even better than that looks. They missed the cover by a single point last time out vs. Toronto and they were catching seven in Cleveland and lost in OT, so they should have covered that one and there was a questionable call against them at the end of regulation. Utah will be missing some key pieces here as they have two starters out, including their best player, and some key role players. The usual suspects are out for LA, but they have their main core that has played this season ready to go. The Clippers have covered in four of the last five meetings and we think they go all out here to try and win this one outright as the Jazz are very vulnerable tonight missing these players.

Detroit has been one of the best NBA bets in March and they have covered in 11 of their last 12. Orlando has been inconsistent, even for a bad team, and they are coming off a 40+ beatdown here at home to Brooklyn. Detroit has covered in 7 of the last 10 meetings, and we think this is a great chance for a rare road win for them.

The Lakers continue to get too much respect from the oddsmakers. This looks like a double-digit line to us. The Lakers are coming off consecutive double digit losses. This looks like another blowout to us. Minnesota looks like a real contender with eight wins and covers in their last nine games. They are peaking while many other teams are in their mid-season funk. They already had their letdown game against Orlando and that is the only game they didn’t cover in the last nine. The Lakers are always one of the worst ATS teams in the league every year even when they are a dominant team, but they have been one of the worst ATS teams again this season and they are once again being given too much credit by the oddsmakers as we had this game handicapped at -13 and think the home team had tremendous value here.

Detroit has covered in 10 of their last 11 games. This team is playing well under the radar and we like them getting over double digits tonight. Their non cover was last time out hosting the Clippers where they lost by 4 while getting 3.5. The Heat enter having lost two of three. We expect Detroit to stay within double digits here. They are 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings.

The last time we saw these Sixers at home, they were blown out of the building by the Nets. That was an embarrassing performance in front of the home fans, and then they needed OT to get by Orlando on the road last time out, so we think they put their best foot forward here tonight. The Nuggets have been a little overrated by the oddsmakers lately and they are 0-4 ATS in their last four and enter having lost two straight. We see a motivated Philly team tonight.

The Nets haven’t had any stability in the roster this season, and that has led to some disappointing results on the court for the team that was favored entering the season in the East. There are some very wacky trends out there that are meaningless, but this one fits the Nets perfectly: they are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games where they won by 10 or more points. So they normally follow up a good game with a dud, and they won by double digits against Charlotte last time out. Philly is just quietly getting the job done and they have won eight of 10 and when they win they normally cover. We think the home team has a great chance for a 7+-point win here.

Boston is playing well right now and they are well rested and catch the Hornets on a back to back. In fact, Boston is playing as well as any team in the NBA and the Hornets are overrated after their hot start but they have come back to earth a bit. Boston has covered in nine of the last 12 meetings here in Charlotte.

The Clippers were embarrassed last time out against the Knicks in a blowout, snapping a five-game winning streak. They now face one of their biggest rivals. Possibly they were looking ahead to this game during the Knicks loss? Golden State is in a freefall and has dropped seven of their last eight. They come in on a B2B even though key players rested last night, there will be some tired role players on the roster here. Clippers have covered in six of the last seven meetings here.

Even in this down season for LA, they are still a better team than the Spurs. And they are trending upward in our opinion. They are coming off a very nice win over the Warriors. So the heat is off them, at least momentarily, and they can just go out and play their game tonight. We had the Lakers as a slight favorite here, so we think the wrong team is favored.

Really not a true Must Win but the Lakers really need a strong performance here. They were embarrassed last time out against their Little Brother Clippers, and they have lost four straight. They will at least give a lot of effort here. Just can’t see another blowout. The Warriors have dropped five of six, so they aren’t in the best form right now. We rarely ever take the Lakers ATS because they are normally overvalued but the public bettors have jumped off the ship and there is actually value in this line tonight.

The Clippers have won six straight in this series. They have owned the Lakers recently. They covered all but one of those games, and in that lone ATS loss the Clippers controlled most of the game until a late Lakers rally. The Lakers are the main rival for the Clippers, but it is a rare one-way rivalry in sports. The Lakers have other more important rivals, so this is normally just another game to them. And the Lakers stink this season, while the Clippers have played pretty well through major injuries and roster turnover.

Sacramento is 7-22 on the road this season. They are a slightly better team in this matchup but we think this is too many points for them to lay on the road. The Thunder are one of the best ATS teams in the NBA this season. They should be focused here as this is a very winnable game, and we think the home dog has a great chance to cash.

The Clippers are the disrespected little brother in their own city, and they normally get up big for this matchup. They are 9-1 ATS in the last 10 when the official road team in this matchup. They should have covered in the last meeting but they fell apart late but still won the game. This Lakers team is a mess and we just don’t think they are good or going to turn it around at any point. Nice value in this line tonight.

The Bulls are a much better team overall and the Hawks struggle on the road. We think after the long break that going on the road for the first game back is a bad situation for a team that plays poorly in general away from home. The Bulls were a hot betting team before the break at 5-1 ATS, and we feel they will pick up right where they left off.

These are two of the big surprise teams in the NBA this season. But the difference is that the Wolves are just a surprise but the Grizzlies are a true contender. Memphis has been one of the best betting teams this season and very consistent. Minnesota has been somewhat inconsistent. We think the Grizzlies will put an emphasis on starting off the unofficial second half of the season with a strong performance.

Just not buying the Clippers as double digit favorites over anyone. This team has been highly inconsistent and they aren’t blowing out bad teams on a regular basis. They are 1-4 ATS this season when laying 7.5 or more, so they normally letdown backers in spots like this. The Rockets are coming off their best game in awhile last night as they played tough and got the cover in Phoenix. They lost by 3 as 16.5-point dogs. They have a good chance here to end their losing streak before the all star break, and we think they play a competitive game.

Just don’t like the Spurs as a big road favorite like this. OKC has covered three straight and they have been playing well, and we think this will be a competitive game here in OKC on Wednesday night. The Spurs traditionally don’t play well here and they are 7-19 ATS in the last 26 visits here. They have won only three of their last eight overall.

Portland has won and covered three straight. Two of those games were against very flawed teams and we think the Bucks just had an off game. Memphis is one of the hottest teams in the NBA and they have just been destroying teams lately. They have won and covered six straight even though the numbers have been rising. They are 7-3 ATS on back-to-backs so we don’t see that as a problem tonight.

Detroit hasn’t been playing well lately but they catch the Celtics in a letdown spot on a back-to-back, playing their third game in four nights, and coming off a big beatdown of Philly last night in a game that was more important to them. These teams played earlier in the month and the Pistons hung tough and got the cover. In fact, they have covered five straight in this series and are 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings in Boston.

Orlando has covered in six of the last seven meetings in Orlando. The Magic have won four of their lasy eight, so they are playing decent basketball right now for a bottom feeder. Whenever you see a spread like this you have to look for a reason to play the underdog. You can cover even in a blowout. Phoenix just played their NBA Finals revenge game against Milwaukee and they have the Clippers on deck, so they probably won’t take this game too seriously as they can win without 100% effort.

This is a huge revenge spot for the home team. For the Bucks, it’s just another game against a very good team from the other conference. Of course, the Suns lost in the NBA Finals to the Bucks. So this matchup has probably been on their minds since the Summer. Milwaukee has been playing well, but they have had a very easy schedule lately. We think the Suns are the much more motivated team tonight.

The Lakers stink. They beat New York in OT last time out in a game that shouldn’t have been close. The Bucks have won seven of nine and they are playing some of their best basketball of the season after slogging through the beginning part of the year. Their offense has been humming and they have scored 137 in both of their last two games. We don’t see them getting anywhere near that tonight, but we think they will pull away in this game in the fourth quarter and get a comfortable win that falls well below the posted total.

These are two of the worst offensive teams in the league, and the Mavs are one of the best defensive teams. We expect a low scoring game here, and a low total makes the points for the underdog more valuable. Dallas is coming off two games against playoff type teams then they have the Clippers, a rival, coming up, so we don’t see them giving 100% in this matchup.

Brooklyn is likely without all of their Big 3 tonight and some role players because of injury. This team has not had any roster continuity this season, and it has shown on the court. They are 20-32-1 against the spread. Boston is one of the hottest teams in the league right now, winners of 7 of 8. And we don’t think they will take it easy against the Nets because of their roster issues. This game is important as a potential tiebreaker down the line.

Just think this is too many points. The Jazz have won two straight, but this team is still really banged up and their recent results have not been much better than the Jazz, who have been slogging through the months of Jan and Feb. Utah is 9-17-1 ATS at home, where they are often overrated by the oddsmakers. That seems like the case again tonight. New York has had a light schedule lately, so they should be well rested. They played well enough to win last time out in an OT loss to the Lakers. They are also 12-4 ATS in their last 16 visits to Utah.

Boston has won four straight and six of seven. This team has dealt with all sports of adversity this season to start following their very disappointing season last year. But they seem back on track lately, and they are healthy now. Boston has been one of the best betting teams of the last five or so years, before last season happened. But when they are on track they can easily cover a large road spread like this against a lousy team on a back-to-back. They have covered six of the last seven in Orlando.

Does Portland have Dame Lillard back? Of course not. This spread doesn’t make sense. Portland has been playing well with a turnstile roster, but we don’t think they deserve to be this big of favorites. OKC just beat Portland – by 18! – the last day of January. Portland scored only 81 points. And they didn’t hit the century mark last time out against the Lakers in one of the worst performances of the season. We expect a low scoring game here, which makes the points for the underdog more attractive, and we will sprinkle a little on the moneyline as well.

The Clippers have had two nights off, while the Lakers played last night. That rest advantage is crucial during the mid-season slog. The Lakers won last night, but we have to say that might have been one of the most unimpressive wins we have seen in awhile. Both teams played horribly, but the Blazers played one of the worst games of the season and lost by only five points. They took 20 more shots than the Lakers and hit in the mid-30s for shooting percentage. Late in the game their shooting was especially atrocious. So we give more credit to the Blazers for losing than the Lakers winning. Now they face a rested Clippers team that has been playing the most consistent basketball they have played this season. They have had more roster continuity recently and this has been one of the teams in the NBA hit hardest by Covid and injuries. They lost last time out at Indiana on a back-to-back and on the last game of their long road trip. The first game back after a long trip can be tricky, but we like how the Clippers have had two days off. This allowed a day for the players to focus on personal matters before getting back into basketball mindset. The Clippers had covered seven of eight before that loss to Indiana. The Clippers want this game more. This is a one-sided rivalry since the Lakers have bigger rivals but not the Clippers. They are considered the Little Brother in LA, and they normally bring their best performance when playing the Lakers. They have won four straight meetings and covered in five straight, and they have a long term 17-8 ATS mark when listed as the home squad. The Clippers have a better record (barely) despite having worse injury luck. The Lakers were supposed to be championship favorites. The Clippers were going to be lucky to make the postseason. We think this Clippers roster is definitely a playoff team without Kawhi and George, and they are starting to play better and gel together despite the absence of their stars.

The Nuggets have been playing well, but they are on their last game of a grueling six-game road trip. From the looks of their performance last night in Minnesota, they are ready to go home. And not only are they on a back-to-back, but they are playing their third game in four nights. They are 1-6-1 ATS on the second leg of a back-to-back, so they traditionally don’t play well in these situations. Utah has been a dumpster fire lately because of injuries. Now Ingles is out for the season. They have lost five straight. But four of those losses were to Phoenix (X2), Memphis and Golden State. This isn’t exactly a Must Win Game, but we think they will bring their A Game in order to end this losing streak, and Denver is very susceptible to a blowout because of their travel situation. The Nuggets are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 trips to Utah.

The Clippers have dealt with more adversity and roster upheaval as almost any team in the NBA this season. That is a big reason they have been so inconsistent. But they have been pretty healthy lately, they have had more roster continuity, and they have played better, scratching their way back to .500 and back into the thick of the playoff race. They have showed they can win games multiple ways. They are coming in on a back-to-back, but they played early Sunday so they should be plenty rested here. This team has been playing with swagger recently, and we expect them to beat an inferior team on the road.

This is the most points the Spurs have gotten all season as an underdog. We think it’s too many tonight. San Antonio has been one of the better bets in the NBA with a winning ATS record. They do their best work as an underdog. They are 12-6 ATS when getting seven or more points. The Suns are only 5-5 ATS when laying double digits. The Spurs have won two of three and they are playing pretty well right now. We think they keep this one within double digits.

The Spurs are coming in on a back-to-back while the Grizzlies have had two nights off. That is huge at this point of the season. San Antonio looked good last night. But this team has been highly inconsistent and we just don’t see them bringing the same effort on B2B nights. The Grizzlies are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven meetings here.