Sports Picks & Predictions

It’s not often you get a relatively healthy Cavs team as this big of an underdog but we like them tonight to cover this big number in San  Antonio. The Cavs have covered in three of the last four meetings, and the game they didn’t cover, the last one, they lost in overtime in a game they easily could have won. Cleveland has been up and down lately and they had a pretty rough recent road trip. Their first game back at home didn’t go much better with a loss to the Wizards. But that makes this game all the more important with the playoffs approaching and with the need for some positive momentum. The Cavs don’t normally take the regular season that seriously but we expect their best effort tonight.

The Magic have a very strong history in this series as they have covered in seven of the last nine meetings. In fact, they have won the last two meetings straight up. Orlando has had a very light schedule lately and they come into this one with two days off and they should be primed to play another very close game. The Magic have won three of their last four and they are playing well recently. We think they give their best effort tonight against a team they have played well against and we also think this is a couple too many points for the favorite.

Golden State hasn’t been a good bet this season but they are rounding into form lately and they have covered four of their last five. They failed to cover last time out against Sacramento but won by 14 as an 18-point favorite. They didn’t have a lot of motivation in that game but still played well and won in a blowout. But they have motivation tonight as the Grizzlies are a traditional rival and they have beat the Warriors twice this season. But Golden State won the last meeting by 15 – in Memphis no less – and we think they give their best shot to split the season series tonight. Memphis has won four of their last six but they also have five double-digit blowout losses in their last five games and this team has not been playing hard in losses. Marc Gasol is also questionable for this game and the Grizzlies will need all the help they can get to stay competitive in this game.

We normally don’t factor revenge too much into our NBA handicapping, because these players are professional and not as emotional as college players. Also, some guys probably don’t even know who they play in the next game (this has been proven in TV interviews). But when a team suffers a bad loss and the game was recent then that can be a factor for revenge. And this Dallas team lost by 22 in Toronto a couple weeks ago and we think they will give every effort to play better in this one. Dallas is currently a few games out of the playoff picture in the West and this is a must-win game. We think they get it tonight.

This is the first game of a five-game road trip for the Wizards and we think they do all they can to start off strong as the playoffs are nearing in a couple weeks. This team has been a completely different team after a slow start and they are playing as well as any team in the NBA lately. LeBron is questionable here with a scratched eye, and the Cavs normally err on the side of caution when it comes to him and we doubt he plays here. This line certainly indicates that the bookies are leaning that way. With or without LeBron we feel the Wizards have a very good chance to win this one. The Cavs seem to be treading water waiting for the playoffs while the Wizards look to build momentum for the postseason.

This is a game we have had circled for awhile since the Jazz beat the Clippers in Utah last time out. That was a rare win for the Jazz who got their first win and cover in five meetings in this series. The Clippers have had their fair share of problems throughout the season and they have dealt with extended injury absences for two of their big 3. But this is such a crucial game and we think the better team takes control of this and dominates in this matchup. LA has been playing pretty well lately. They lost last time out at a Mavs team that is playing much better down the stretch, but they had won the last three before that. We took Dallas on Thursday and said the Clippers were probably looking ahead to this one, and we think that was the case as they lost in the final seconds. LA is a game and a half back of the Jazz for the No. 4 seed and we think they do what it takes to win this big and get a better chance at home-court advantage in the first round when these teams likely meet in the playoffs.

The Wolves won by 26 the last time these teams met up, and we think we could see another blowout here tonight. Minnesota has lost and failed to cover in four straight, but that was against a pretty tough schedule. Tonight provides the perfect opportunity for them against a “get right” opponent. The Lakers don’t have a lot of interest in winning right now. They need to keep losing in order to give them the best chance to keep their draft pick in the upcoming loaded draft. This is also pretty much a must-win game for Minnesota and we expect to see their best against an inferior opponent.

After covering seven of their last eight games, the Sixers are the top ATS team in the league. This is a squad that bettors think badly of and they don’t have a lot of top-shelf talent, but they play hard every night and they play like a team. That is the recipe for a great ATS team. The Sixers are 12-7 ATS on the road against sub-.500 teams and we just don’t feel like the Bulls should be laying this many points to any team right now. The Bulls have covered in four straight games but they were facing more standard lines but tonight they have an inflated line and it would not shock us to see Philly win this one straight out.

The Pacers haven’t covered a game in this series since 2014. Denver is also 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in Indiana. Denver has covered in six of their last seven games and this team is playing very well right now. They are coming off a blowout win over Cleveland and this team should come into this one with a lot of confidence. The Pacers have been very inconsistent and they just can’t seem to get a winning streak going. The Pacers have two more wins on the season than Denver but they play in the much weaker conference and have easier matchups on a regular basis.

The Cavs are just a poor ATS team as they are often overvalued by the oddsmakers and we think that is the case again tonight. Charlotte is on an upswing as they have won and covered in three straight games. This is a team that we think is better than their record. They have gone through some real rough patches this season but there is some talent there. Teams tend to really get up to play the world champs and we think the Hornets will bring their A Game again tonight. The Cavs seem to be coasting to the playoffs but the Hornets need every win they can get and this is almost a must-win situation for them tonight. We think they challenge for the win here in what should be a close game.

We liked the Mavs at the opening line of 3 and like them even better here at this number. The Clippers have one of their most important games of the season coming up Saturday vs. Utah as that matchup will be crucial for the No. 4 seed and home-court advantage in the playoffs. Dallas has had a road-heavy schedule lately and they have a couple bad losses but a team is never as bad or good as their last outing and we think we will see a much better game tonight than they played here last time out vs. Golden State. The Clippers are just 7-14 ATS on the road against sub-.500 teams where they are normally favored but also normally fail to reach their potential. We think this will be a very close game and grabbing the points is the only way to go.

The Grizzlies match up well here and they have taken three of the last four meetings ATS. Also, five of the last seven meetings have gone under the posted total and these teams played last week and the Grizzlies won straight up and since these teams just played we expect to see more defense here because of the familiarity and we think this will be a low-scoring game, which favors the underdog. You don’t get the sense that the Spurs are a team that would be too focused on revenge because they just go about their business with workman-like precision. We think the Griz want this one more. Not sure if they get the win but we see strong defense on both sides and a close game overall.

The Bucks came off a tough road game last night as they beat Portland but this team hasn’t been very good in back-to-backs this season and they are just 6-10 SU and 7-9 ATS. We just think this is a bad spot for the Bucks as they come in not only on a back-to-back but this is the sixth and last game of their long road trip. They have won three of their last four and should be pretty happy with the trip and ready to head back home, where they play four of their next six. We don’t think that they will be giving their all in this game – even if they had the energy to do so. The Bucks aren’t a good road team and have one more win than the Kings have at home. We think that this will be a very close game and the Kings could pull off the upset.

The Nuggets are playing well and have covered in five of their last six games. They are a much better ATS team than the Cavs this season and this is just the type of matchup where the Cavs are overvalued – against a team that the public just doesn’t like to bet on. The Cavs have failed to cover in four of their last six on the road and we think that Denver can win this one straight up. Denver is 10-4 ATS as a small dog in this range and Cleveland is 5-13 ATS in road games against sub-.500 teams, and this is where their ATS record has been really hurt this season. Great line value here tonight and Denver has been great in bounce back situations as they are 12-2 ATS after a loss!

Milwaukee is 5-1 in the last six meetings in this series and 4-1 in the last five meetings in Portland. Milwaukee is on Game 5 of a pretty tough road trip but they have performed admirably by going 2-2 with a win over the Clippers. They were drubbed by the Warriors last time out so that has added a bit of value to this line as we expected this one to be around 3. Portland has been playing well but this is their first game home after a long road trip and we look to sometimes go against teams in this situation, especially if they are playing a team like this from another conference as their minds might be elsewhere. We think this is a very winnable game for the Bucks and we think this will be a close game regardless.

Minnesota played really lousy on their recent road trip, losing all three games SU and ATS, and they can’t be proud of that result. They better play well here tonight against the Spurs because they head back on the road after this game and this team is not very good in road games while they have a .500 record at home. The last two meetings between these teams were in San Antonio and the Wolves covered in both and we think there is a great chance they are competitive here, especially after reading media reports about how they want to make up for their bad road trip with a strong performance here at home. San Antonio is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 so they are regularly being overvalued by the oddsmakers compared to their current form.

We had Memphis as a slight favorite in this game so there is great line value tonight for our Top Play for Tuesday. The Grizzlies have covered in six of the last eight meetings between these clubs. They have won seven of those games, so they obviously match up well in this series. Memphis is playing great ball right now and they have won and covered in four straight, including a win over San Antonio last time out. This team has had two nights off after that game and will be the more well rested team here tonight. The Pelicans have been playing some good games lately, too, but overall Memphis is the much better team here and we have them winning this game straight up.

The Warriors have covered in two straight games but they are just 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games. They beat the Bucks and Magic big at home to get back on track but we just don’t think this team is in top form right now and they are in for an incredibly tough matchup tonight in OKC. Durant being out of the lineup takes away a lot of the intrigue from this matchup but the Warriors are still his team and the crowd and the home team will be more into this one than an average game. We think that OKC has a very good chance to win this one tonight. We had them as a slight favorite in this one and we think this looks like another clearly inflated line from the bookies.

Neither team has been in top form lately but we think this line is a coin flip for two teams that are pretty even. We think you just have to take the points in this matchup. The Wizards have won and covered in two out of three meetings and we think they have a great chance to capture the road win tonight. Boston is coming in on a back to back and even though both teams will be playing their third game in four nights, the Wizards have the big rest advantage as they had Sunday off. The Wizards are 28-13 SU this season with one day of rest and we think they keep this close and possibly win.

Detroit has covered in eight of the last nine meetings in this series. The Suns just lost consecutive games to the Magic and Kings, so that right there tells you how things are going for this club. Detroit has lost three straight but that came against a much tougher schedule and they need this win tonight and we think they bring their A Game against a much more inferior opponent. Not only are the Suns the worse team but they are also banged up right now and we think the home team cruises to an easy double digit win here.

The Bucks are one of the hottest teams in the NBA and they have won and covered in seven of eight games. They won straight up last time out at the Clippers and they don’t have any travel involved here as they play in the same building and against a much worse team. The Lakers are the definition of a team that is tanking. They have covered only one of their last 10 games. They have to keep losing to have a good chance to keep their draft pick, and they have been making an art of it lately. We don’t think that the Bucks will rest on their laurels after the win against the Clippers, and this is a team playing with a lot of confidence right now.

The more Miami wins the more the value starts to rise going against them and we just think that this line is way too large on Friday as we thought -2 would be a more appropriate line and we would lean to the Wolves at that number. But we really like them a lot at the current line and we think they have a great chance to win this game straight out. Minnesota can be inconsistent. But they have recent wins over Washington, Golden State and the LA Clippers, and they will come into this game with every intention of winning. These teams are pretty evenly matched in our opinion and we have to take the points here on Friday.

The Wizards have lost two straight but they are the much better team in this matchup and we thought that this line should be double digits. The Bulls have won and covered only one of their last seven games. This team lost Wade for the season and we think that was the final nail in the coffin for them and we expect some more poor results down the stretch. The Wizards have lost two straight entering this game, but this is their second game back home after a long road trip and we expect a really solid effort tonight. John Wall is questionable here but we think he will play and even if not we feel like the Wizards are due for a big game.

Orlando has dropped three straight, but we expect their best effort tonight as everyone seems to get up to play the Warriors lately. Golden State has covered just once in 10 games. They almost lost to Philly last time out here at home but they pulled out a two-point win. This team has been bad all season at covering big lines and they are 16-27 ATS against double-digit lines. Orlando is 6-3 ATS against lines of 10 or higher, so this matchup is good for both of those trends. Orlando is also 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in the Bay Area. They lost by six points and one point the last two times they have played here, and the Warriors are not playing as well as they were last season.

These teams played a few nights ago and the Nets scored an eight-point win at home. Forget about revenge here as the Knicks have so many issues right now that getting revenge on the lowly Nets is probably their last priority. Porzingis has been the lone bright spot for New York this season and he is probably out here and team brass has already conceded that this is a lost season and is management has given up then why would the players, who have stunk all season, want to give any effort? Brooklyn has been really good at bouncing back from a loss and they are 6-1 ATS in these situations this season. This is a good chance in our eyes for the Nets to get a rare road win (even though they are just a subway ride from home here).

Utah comes in on a back-to-back but has won six of their last seven overall and this team is playing as well as any team right now. We always look for a spot to go against the Cavs, who have a good record SU but are a sub-.500 team ATS. The Cavs have actually covered in three straight so their lines get inflated again quickly, especially after playing one of their best games of the season last time out. Utah is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings and we expect them to keep this one close as well. This team is on a roll right now and they can possibly win this one straight up.

The Bucks just beat down the Clippers in Milwaukee less than two weeks ago, and that was a double-digit win. Revenge is an overstated handicapping angle for the NBA and the Clippers are not focused on an out-of-conference foe but instead they are trying to work Chris Paul and Blake Griffin back in the lineup and trying to get on the same page for a playoff run. The Clippers just have not been playing up to their potential lately and we think this is likely a close game and the Bucks showed recently already that they can match up well with LA.

The Kings have been playing pretty well lately for what they have on their roster and we think this is a very winnable game for them tonight. They beat Orlando last time out as an underdog and they took the Wizards to OT in a loss and also played the Spurs pretty tough on the road. While some thought this team would roll over when Cousins was traded, they seem to be playing harder on a nightly basis. The Suns are just 3-8 ATS as a favorite this season and this is not a good role for them. Maybe we could see three points here for this line but this line is too large for the way the Suns have performed as a favorite.

Dallas has had great success in this series in covering in seven of the last eight meetings. Dallas has lost two straight and they have failed to cover in their last three so they are undervalued tonight but overall this team has been playing very well for awhile and the Wizards have cooled off a bit since their really hot streak. They have covered only two of their last seven games and this looks like an inflated line tonight as we thought that 4.5 would be a more suitable line for this game.

The Pacers have played better on the road lately but the fact remains that even with improved play that they are just 11-21 on the road this season. They are a better team overall than the Knicks but at least the Knicks have 15 wins at home this season and we think they have the edge here and they are getting points at home tonight. New York has covered in four of the last six matchups between these clubs. The Pacers have lost three of their last four on the road. New York has had a tough road-heavy schedule lately and we think that being back home will give this team a boost and a chance for a much-needed win.

Detroit always seems to get up for this matchup and they won the last two meetings and they have covered in three of the last four overall. They won by five last week in Detroit when these two teams met up. Revenge isn’t a major factor in the NBA and the Cavs don’t really take the regular season all that seriously, hence their 30-33-2 ATS mark, and we don’t think they will be super focused on revenge here and this should just be another game to them that they should win, but we think that the Pistons can keep this one close with a chance for the upset. Five of the last six meetings have gone under the total and we think this total is too high once again with both teams trending to the under recently.

The Clippers have won four of five and now that they are getting healthy they are finally putting it together ahead of the playoffs. This game is crucial for the No. 4 seed in the playoff and home-court advantage. The Clippers are currently one game back but they already have the tiebreaker by virtue of winning both of the previous matchups this season (they have won and covered in four straight meetings). The Clippers are much better than the Jazz when playing well and fully healthy and they have matched up very well against them in the past. In a playoff-type atmosphere we will back the better team here.

This line is a bit of a head scratcher. The Spurs played good against the Warriors on Saturday but this team is missing Aldridge and Parker tonight and possibly Leonard as well. Yes, they beat the Warriors shorthanded but Golden State had their JV squad playing and Atlanta will be much tougher competition tonight. The Hawks coach used to be an assistant in San Antonio so this is a big game for them when these teams meet. The Hawks won the first meeting in OT and they should be able to stay very competitive here against a watered-down Spurs team.

With six straight wins the Bucks are playing as well as any team in the NBA right now and the oddsmakers still haven’t caught up with this team. They face a Memphis team tonight that is slumping big time with five straight losses. It’s not like the Grizzlies have faced a murderer’s row, either. They lost to the Hawks, Nets and Clippers at home, all as a favorite, and they lost on the road to the Mavs as a favorite as well. They actually haven’t covered a line in this losing streak and they look overvalued tonight against a Bucks team that has been playing lights out.

Both teams started off the season slow but both are now realizing their potential and we just have to back the home team here. The Wolves have had a road-heavy schedule lately but when they have been at home they have been amazing with three straight wins, against the Warriors, Clippers and Mavs. Those are three very good teams (the Mavs are playing like a playoff team now). They have won two of four on the road, including a win at Utah and an OT loss at San Antonio. This is the last game of a long road trip for the Wizards, who played in OT in their last two games and will be playing their third game in four nights. Bad spot for the road team here.

Dallas has covered in three of the last four meetings in this series and we think they make it four of five tonight. This team has won six of eight and is playing its best basketball of the season and the oddsmakers still seem to be lining this team based on their overall body of work instead of their current form. This team is playing like a playoff team right now despite a slow start to the season. Toronto has lost three of four and this is the dreaded first game home after a long road trip when teams tend to struggle in this spot. We expect a real close game here that the Mavs have a great chance to win.

Both teams have similar records but the Rockets are 38-28 ATS this season while the Cavs are just 29-33-2 ATS. That just goes to show you which one of these teams is normally overvalued by the oddsmakers. The Rockets can pick their own score when their offense is clicking and this should be a fast-paced game that plays into the Rockets strengths. Houston has been really good as a favorite this season and when you like them you can normally be confident that they will score enough to cover the line when laying points and that is definitely the case here tonight. Cleveland has lost four of their last six and this team isn’t playing very well right now and we don’t think this is a good spot for them tonight.

Five of the last six meetings in this series have gone under the posted total. The under is also 4-0 in the Heat’s last four road games. This team has had trouble scoring on the road and they have failed to reach the century mark in two of their last three on the road. This Pacers defense is playing very well lately and we think the Heat are going to have a tough time on offense today, especially with Dragic likely to miss this game for the Heat. Indiana has won and covered in four straight meetings at home in this series and they are an excellent home team overall this season and we expect them to get the job done in a big way Sunday and the under should be an easy cash as well.

Atlanta is coming in on a back-to-back and this team has played six straight at home. That puts them in a bad spot to head on the road to play a physical team like the Grizzlies and we don’t see it going too well for them tonight. Memphis played on Thursday but they had two nights off before that so they should be much more well rested than their opponents tonight. Atlanta hasn’t been good after a win lately as they have dropped four straight against the spread after a win, and like we said we just think this is a real bad spot for the road team against a Memphis squad that has dropped four straight, albeit against a pretty tough schedule. They need this win badly and they will go all out to get it and should cover the number pretty easily.

Well, this one sure turned out to be a lemon. The Warriors are resting their four best starters and the Spurs are sitting a couple key guys as well. This was supposed to be one of the best games of the season but not it’s looking like anything but. The ABC execs have to be fuming. Nonetheless, we expect the Spurs to win big here. They are a deeper team. The stars of the Warriors elevate the other players around them and make them much better but for San Antonio it’s more of the system and they have some nice depth and we think they will take this game very seriously and expect them to win big.

Utah is playing great basketball right now and they have won four straight and their defense has really been getting the job done lately. We expect their defense to be in top form today and expect a real low-scoring game which the Jazz have a chance to win straight up. OKC has dropped four of five overall and this team is just not in top form lately despite a win over San Antonio last time out. The under is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings and a low-scoring game plays into the Jazz’s hands. We think Utah is the much better and more well-rounded team and we expect them to win this one straight out on Saturday afternoon.

The Bulls just have a knack for winning these games against top competition at home. They beat Golden State here. They also won when facing their biggest tests against Boston and Toronto recently. The Bulls have lost three straight since that win against the Warriors but that just means they are more desperate for a win tonight and we are getting a very good line because with this team’s history against top opponents at home we expected a line closer to 3 here and we would have leaned to the Bulls at that number as well but the big line here warrants a top play. The Bulls are 8-4 ATS at home against above-.500 teams and they are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings against Houston in Chicago. Houston has dropped two straight as well heading into this matchup and they are not in great form right now. We expect a pretty close game here and we think this is a coin flip as to the winner but getting the points here is just too good to pass up for our top play for Friday.

OKC has lost four straight and they should be desperate for a win tonight and especially against one of their main rivals. And OKC is 3-1 ATS in the last three meetings and they have been a great bet at home all season at 21-10-1 ATS. The Spurs come in on a back-to-back and they have to play it on the road, which is always tough. Plus, the Spurs had to mount a major rally last night vs. Sacramento and they outscored the Kings 32-18 in the fourth quarter, which caused them to use up a lot of energy. We think they might be really lacking in effort tonight compared to what we are used to from the Spurs. Despite winning nine straight the Spurs have covered in just three of those games, and this team has been overvalued by the oddsmakers compared to their current effort on the court.

We have been on the Clippers lately with poor results but we have to go with where we see value so we will back them Thursday for our top play. The Clips are getting Blake Griffin and Chris Paul back in playing shape and they should start to play better as they make their playoff push. Memphis has had the edge in this series for a long time but the Clippers scored a nine-point win last time out so maybe the tide is turning in this series. The Clippers come in on a back-to-back after a poor effort last night in Minnesota but it’s just hard to see this team playing games like that on back-to-back nights and maybe they were looking ahead to this game against a more traditional rival. We had LA as a slight favorite in this game and expect them to win straight up.

Golden State has covered just one of the past eight meetings between these clubs. We thought that this line should have been around 6 but it’s on the other side of the NBA key betting number of 7 so there is some nice value with the underdog here. Boston seems to always get up to play the Warriors and they were one of their biggest thorns in their side last season. Boston won here last season and they should have won in Boston but they fell in OT. The Celtics were blown out by the Warriors by 16 early in the season in Boston, but we don’t think that this will happen twice as by all indications the Celtics take this matchup very seriously and we think they give their all tonight while this is likely just another game for the home team. Golden State has covered only one of their last seven games and they look overvalued again here tonight.

We really like the Bucks in this spot. They are trending upwards and have won and covered three straight and they have covered in four of five overall. They are now 7-3 straight up in their last 10 games and this team is making a major move towards the playoffs. The Knicks beat Orlando twice and they have a recent win against Philly (and a loss against the Sixers as well), and this team is just not playing well lately. Carmelo Anthony is banged up although he is listed as probable tonight but the Knicks seem to just be waiting for the season to win unlike their motivated opponent tonight who is a team on the rise lately. This will also be the Knicks third game in four nights and fatigue should be an issue, especially on the road.

The Clippers have just dominated this series in Minnesota and they are going for their 10th straight win here on Wednesday night. The Wolves have been covering a lot of lines lately but the oddsmakers are giving them too much credit here. LA has been playing well lately and they are finally healthy and they have shown over and over that they match up well in this series. They are 12-3-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings and they are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games. We expect to see the best Clippers team tonight against an opponent that hasn’t had many answers for them the past few years.

Detroit has been a covering machine lately and they have covered in five of their last seven games. This is the Pacers first home game back after a five-game road trip and sometimes in these situations the home team has their minds elsewhere. They didn’t look very good last time out in a 12-point loss at Charlotte, and we think they are in tough tonight against a Pistons team that has been playing well lately. This will be the Pacers third game in four nights and this team has shown that they do not play to their best abilities when fatigued. We think that this game is a coin flip as to who wins on Wednesday so taking the points here is the way to go.

The Lakers are a team to fade down the stretch. While we don’t think they are blatantly tanking, they need to finish with one of the NBA’s worst record to get a chance to keep their high draft pick in the upcoming draft. No one is going to get fired for bad performance, so they just don’t have a lot of motivation to win right now. They have not covered in seven straight games, so that just goes to show you how they are playing lately despite some generous lines. Dallas has covered in four of the last seven meetings and they won the last meeting by 49 points! We think this one will be a blowout as well, and Dallas is a couple games out of the playoffs in the west standings so they aren’t going to overlook any opponent right now.

We were on Portland last time these teams played last week in Portland, and we will go for the other side here in this home-and-home, and that just goes to show how important home-court advantage is in the NBA. The Thunder lost all three games in their three-game road trip, so they will be pretty desperate for a win here, and this team is a completely different club at home (23-8) compared to the road (12-20). They are 21-9-1 ATS at home and that is one of the best ATS trends in the league for home teams. They are also 4-0 ATS in the last four games of this series in OKC.

Charlotte is home after a long road trip while the Pacers are on their last-game of a five game road trip. Advantage Hornets there. Indiana is also one of the worst teams on the second end of a back-to-back and they are just 3-10 SU and 2-10-1 ATS in these situations this season. They played on Sunday in Atlanta and won a very hard-fought game on a last-second shot and it’s very tough to go on the road after a game like that and give another solid performance. Charlotte went 3-4 on their road trip but they lost OT games to the Pistons and Clippers and they are playing much better than their recent results would indicate. This is a team on the upswing and we think this number is very beatable tonight.

We went with the Warriors on Sunday and watched that game very closely and even though they won it’s obvious that they just don’t have that killer instinct right now. It’s probably the best thing for their championship aspirations to take it somewhat easy right now as last season they wore themselves out and faltered in the finals. They have now failed to cover in six straight games. The Hawks have failed to cover in three straight but they have been very competitive and this is a huge game for them tonight as the lone time they host the Warriors this season. Atlanta is 7-1 ATS this season as a dog of four or more points and they are undervalued again here on Monday and we think this will be an extremely close game that the Hawks have a chance to win straight out.

When teams play back-to-back, home-and-home contests like this, the team that lost the night before is normally a strong play the second game. But this is just too many points the Heat are getting tonight! Miami destroyed the Cavs on Saturday while two of the Big 3 sat for Cleveland. LeBron and Irving will be back on the court tonight, but the Cavs are overvalued all the time and despite the best record in the east they are well below .500 ATS, and Miami is a blue collar team that is just not going to rest on its laurels and be happy with the win last time out. We expect them to compete hard here and this one should stay well within double digits.

Sometimes all it takes is a little confidence for a talented team to start playing well and we have seen that with the Sixers at points this season and now we are starting to see it with the Bucks. They have been amazing the last couple games in home wins vs. the Raptors and Clippers, and we think that confidence will carry over here into this very winnable game. The Sixers are really banged up right now and they haven’t been playing all that well lately and we think there is a good chance that the Bucks win this one by 7+.

Boston has just not been a good bet this season as a big favorite. They are 7-13 ATS when laying six or more points. We see this as a pretty big sandwich game for the Celtics as they just played the Cavs and Lakers (a big rivalry for them) and then they play at the Clippers against former coach Doc Rivers tomorrow in LA, and they probably won’t take this game as seriously as they took any of those others. The Suns have played two straight very solid games on this same court with straight up wins and covers (as underdogs in both games) against the Thunder and Hornets, and they are playing with a lot of confidence right now. We think they play a strong game here and keep this one close with a chance to win straight up if Boston doesn’t play well, which we are expecting.

Just like this Golden State team when they have a chip on their shoulder, and after losing at the Bulls and Wizards they will be very anxious to get back on track here on national TV from New York. We normally haven’t liked taking the Warriors minus the big points as they have tended to be hit or miss in these situations. And of course Durant is out for awhile. Golden State has dominated this series and they have won all of the last five meetings by an average of 26 points. They have covered in three of the last four, but the only one they didn’t cover was still a 13-point win at home in December. They led that game by as many as 25. The bookies are punishing this Golden State team because of the Durant injury. But this team has done pretty well in the past without Durant. Yes, their supporting cast may not be as good as the last couple years, but they still have the best team in the league even without KD and after cold shooting last game we think that things even out the other way here. The Knicks are the opposite of the Warriors, a very dysfunctional group, while the Warriors play the most unselfish team basketball in the NBA. Golden State should roll here.

The Grizzlies normally come to play in this matchup and they have covered in five of the last eight meetings. Memphis has some real offensive ability and they have shown in recent games against Phoenix (130 and 110 points scored in two matchups) and Brooklyn (112) that they can score some points when they play a team that likes to run or plays weak defense. The Rockets are better defensively than those teams but they do like to run and take a lot of shots, and the Grizzlies can hang with that pace is presented with that scenario. We expect a close game here and the Grizzlies will be able to score and hang with the Rockets all game long in what will probably be a shootout.

Denver has been playing well and Charlotte really hasn’t, but you have to look at these two teams on paper and think that this is too many points. Denver has been below average this season when laying big points and we just don’t think they are good enough to lay this many points. Maybe against a team like Brooklyn or Philly, but the Hornets have some nice talent and they are probably desperate for a win tonight in a very winnable matchup. They haven’t been terrible in their last five games if you look closer at the results as they have two wins and two OT losses (at Detroit and at LA Clippers). A little luck in those two games and this team is on a hot streak right now. We think the Hornets go all out here to end this long road trip on a positive note.

The Clips have covered in six of the last nine meetings. This team has struggled lately and burned us a couple times but we just have to take the value here tonight. The Clippers are a much better team here. They have been dealing with players coming back into the lineup and it has taken everyone a bit of time to mesh. They went down big in the first half last night at Milwaukee but they played really well in the second half and probably would have won the game eventually if they had more time. They have dropped four of their last five and they really need a win badly here and there will be no taking the night off, especially in front of a national TV audience. Chicago is probably a little too high after their big win over Golden State and they have a road trip coming up and we just think this is a real bad spot for the Bulls tonight.

The Clippers have had an incredibly tough schedule since the all-star break as they have played the top 3 seeds in the west, and things didn’t turn out well for them. So this game is crucial. Chris Paul is getting back into playing shape and he will start to be more of a factor down the stretch. This team has been inconsistent for much of the season but when this team is playing well they can beat anyone, and the Bucks have been one of the worst teams in the east for the last month or so. This should be a “get right” game for the Clippers and a blowout would not surprise us.

These teams just played on Wednesday in Toronto and the Wizards scored the road win. Revenge isn’t a big handicapping factor in the NBA because these guys are professionals with short memories, but when teams play games in close succession like this the second meetings normally fares well for the losing team, and we think that will certainly be the case tonight, and we love that we are getting so many points here as we had this line handicapped at -3 with a lean to Toronto at that number. Toronto had won the last five meetings in the series before the Wednesday loss.

Portland has won five in a row at home against the Thunder. We think that trend continues here tonight. Portland has won only one of their last six games. They haven’t been covering lately, either. But if you look closer that have been playing some decent ball. They were up big late last time out against Detroit before falling in OT and they lost at Toronto by six the game before that when getting 5.5 points. They played well at Atlanta before the break too but lost in OT. They should be hyped to play the Thunder tonight and we see them giving their best effort. OKC is a decent team but their current four-game winning streak came mostly against lousy teams. We think they will lose this one on the road tonight.

The Bulls have won 17 straight home games on TNT on Thursdays. While we don’t believe in certain trends like the day of the week trends, some like these stand out and the Bulls definitely like to play in front of a national audience against top teams. The Warriors have covered in only one of their last six games and this team is being overvalued by the oddsmakers compared to their play on the court. The Bulls have covered in four of their last five so they are playing pretty well right now. With the TNT trend in mind we thought the Warriors should be about -4.5 and it would not shock us to see them win this one straight up.

We think this is a great spot for the Clippers. They have had two nights off entering this game and should be well rested. They lost to the Warriors and Spurs on back-to-back nights out of the break and now they play the third best team in the west. They really need to put on a good performance tonight and should go all out to do so. They don’t want to lose to the three top teams in the west in one week’s time as they would be a bad omen for their playoff chances. The Rockets have six more wins than the Clippers but have been relatively healthy this season compared to LA, who missed both Blake Griffin and Chris Paul for a considerable time. Paul and Griffin were out last time these teams played in a blowout home loss but the Clippers won and covered both meetings before that. The sharps pounded the Clips overnight as this line was released at PK but there is still very nice value here with the Clips laying the small number at home. The Rockets have covered only one of their last three games and this team is probably a bit overvalued right now and this is pretty much a must win game for the Clippers after losing those last two to GSW and San Antonio. LA is 5-2 as a small favorite this season and we think they get the job done here tonight at Staples Center.

The Nuggets come into this one on a back-to-back and this team is 3-10 and 5-8 ATS in these situations this year. They scored a win last night at Chicago but are just 2-3 in their last five games, and another win against the Nets is hardly impressive. The Bucks have been inconsistent but we just think this line is way too short tonight for the home team. Denver has either been putting up big numbers lately or struggling on offense, and we think the Bucks defense will come up big tonight against a fatigued Nuggets squad.

The Hawks have had all the success in this series the last couple years but we think the Mavs will be competitive here tonight and maybe even win this one straight out. Atlanta has won only one of their last four games and that was against Boston, who was probably looking ahead to their matchup tonight against the Cavs. Dallas comes in having won two straight and they are playing with a lot of confidence right now. The Hawks have been below average on the betting line when laying a big number and we think they are overvalued again here tonight.

The Lakers are in full tank mode. They have to be because they need to keep losing in order to keep their draft pick. So this is a team to go against in certain spots moving forward. The Hornets have won four straight in this series. We have seen a drastic improvement from this team in the last few games as they have covered three of their last four and took the Clippers and Pistons to OT in road losses. This team has always had some talent but they have lacked consistency but it looks like they are putting it together for a possible playoff run. We just think they are the much more motivated team tonight and we expect them to get a pretty comfortable win.

You can’t do much better than betting the Nuggets in this series the last couple years as they are 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings and they have won the last two outright. We think that they have a real good chance to score the straight up win here again tonight. Huge NBA Finals sandwich game here for the Bulls as they beat the Cavs last time out and then they host the Warriors in their next contest. They are not going to take this game that seriously as a result and this team is just 13-17 ATS against sub-.500 teams as they normally play down to the level of their competition. Denver is 8-2 ATS as a small dog in this point range they find themselves in tonight and we think they will play hard in a very winnable game.

We really love the way the Jazz are playing right now as they have won and covered three straight and they are in playoff form right now. They are the better team in this matchup and this line is more than fair. They have done their recent good work against solid competition. The Thunder have also won and covered three straight, but those games were against the Pelicans, Lakers and Knicks, three of the NBA’s more dysfunctional groups. Utah is 9-3 ATS as a small favorite and the Thunder are 1-6 ATS as a small dog, and we think that those trends will continue tonight and we thought Utah should be at least -4 here and maybe a bit more. We think there is a great chance that they put up a great defensive performance and win this one by 5+.

Sacramento has won and covered both meetings this year. But that was with DeMarcus Cousins leading the charge for the Kings. But you know what? With the departure of Cousins we think that gives this team some value as these young guys probably have a lot to prove, the oddsmakers will undervalue this team and the betting public wants no interest in them. They played really well in their first game out of the break and then took a step back their next time out, but we don’t think they will have to real bad games in a row and they face an inconsistent Wolves team tonight. We think both teams get their points but that the Kings keep this one close or win a close one.

Five straight meetings in this series have gone under the posted number. We think this will be another low-scoring, defensive battle, and we think the Mavs should come out on top here. Miami has been playing well but we are just not big believers in this team long term and they are definitely becoming overvalued as we had the Mavs -3 on our line for this game. Dallas has covered four of five at home and they have been real tough here lately and we expect that to continue tonight. The Mavs have been playing exceptional defense lately and we think that will translate into a cash on both the side and the total tonight.

The Celtics have six more wins than the Hawks but these teams are normally very competitive on the basketball court and the Hawks have either won or lost a close one in all of the last four meetings. We think that this one will be competitive again and we love the line here tonight and think that this is a very public line. The Hawks have lost three straight but two of those were very tough matchups and then their last head-scratcher was at Orlando on a back-to-back and they were probably looking forward a bit to this game as this is developing into a nice little rivalry. A team is never as bad or good as their last game and we expect a solid effort from the road team tonight.

Toronto rarely gets proper respect from oddsmakers and that is why they have been one of the best ATS teams in the NBA the last couple of seasons and this season is no different. And we think that this spread is a bit short as we had this one handicapped at 7.5 so we think there is nice value here tonight. The Raptors have won three straight meetings in this series and they looked real good in their first game back after the break as they dominated the Celtics and we think they hold their momentum here and score a big home win over an overmatched opponent.

Washington is hot but when you put these two teams down on paper the Jazz are the much better club and we had them as a slight favorite in this matchup. Utah has been very good on the road this year and that has always been a problem with this team but this is the best Jazz team we have seen in years and we expect them to get the job done on Sunday. The break might have sunk the Wizards momentum as they had a head-scratching loss at Philly and the Jazz looked very good in their win after the break. We expect the Jazz to score the road win here and think they match up very well here.

If their effort in their first game back from the break is any indication, the Lakers are in tank mode for the rest of the season. This team needs to lose to keep their pick in this year’s draft. The Spurs are ruthless and they can often cover these big lines and they rarely let down at the end of games and let the opponent in the back door. San Antonio won by 40 the last time these teams played and the Spurs seem very focused after a solid win over the Clippers last time out and they are familiar with this building after just winning here.

It will take some time for DeMarcus Cousins to work himself into the force that the Pelicans are hoping he can become with the twin tower tandem with Anthony Davis. They put up some big stats in their first game, a blowout loss to Houston. But they didn’t get any production from any other players on the court. This is a work in progress for sure while the Mavs have been playing very solid team basketball despite some up-and-down results. But this team is a winning team ATS and they are often undervalued and we sure think that is the case tonight as we expect them to score the straight up win here as the small home dog.

Miami has dominated this series lately with three straight wins and covers. We were on the Pacers last night and they covered at home in an impressive win vs. Memphis. But now they go on the road where they haven’t been the same team and they are on a back-to-back, no less. Miami is on a back-to-back but they are 8-2 ATS compared to a 2-9-1 ATS record in back-to-backs for the Pacers. Miami is in much more consistent form lately as well and this team just keeps getting the job done. We think they get some home cooking tonight and they should win this one by 7+.

Not sure what is wrong with the Hornets but they have better talent than they have displayed lately and they have just been horrible as they have not been playing fundamental team basketball. They had a great chance for a win last time out at Detroit but blew a huge late lead and lost in OT. No way they should be a favorite here. The Kings played great in their first game in the post-Cousins era and they seem to have a chip on their shoulder. This team still has some talent and they are probably the better team right now even without Cousins. Great value in the home underdog in this early tip.

The offenses should be rusty here and the defenses should be fresh, and we think this will be a low-scoring contest just like the last four meetings have been, and all have gone well under the posted total. This one has been given a big total because of some of the Bucks recent contests, but we think they will be able to hold down a Jazz offense that is not often very dynamic on the road and we think that they can score the win in a low-scoring game. The Bucks won three straight before the break and we think that the positive momentum will carry on here in their first contest after the break.

The Pacers were in a bit of a slide before the all-star break but they have been very good at home this season at 20-10 and we had them as a slight favorite in this game and we think the wrong team is favored here. The Pacers faced a real tough schedule before the break and we think the all-star break gave them the rest they needed and they will come back fired up to halt this six-game losing streak. The Grizzlies have had all the luck in this rare matchup the last couple years but we think this is a real nice spot for the home team to get back on track as they will win a low-scoring matchup.

The Warriors own this series. They have won nine straight in the series (they have covered in five of six) and they seem to take a perverse pleasure in making the Clippers look bad. They know exactly how to expose their weaknesses and how to push their buttons. And the Clips really have no answer for these guys. This team is thought of as the only team to be able to challenge the Warriors in the playoffs (besides maybe the Spurs), but that is complete BS as that series would be a 4-0 sweep. These teams hate each other but the Warriors are the ones that have the superior talent and the better coaching and also they play as a team. And they always take this matchup seriously, and when they are at their best they are very hard to beat. Chris Paul could return for the Clippers tonight. As we saw when Blake Griffin returned to action for this team, it took him a few games to get back in the groove. This is not the type of game where a player wants to be thrown in the fire after being out for a long time, and the possibility of Paul playing has lowered this line and given us even more value as we were more than happy to take the Warriors at the opening number of 14-14.5. They haven’t had any success against the Warriors recently with Paul in the lineup anyways, and a rusty Paul might be more of a hindrance to his team than a weapon.

The biggest trade of the season happened over the break as DeMarcus Cousins was sent to New Orleans to pair up with Anthony Davis. Cousins should play tonight and we don’t think he will be incredibly effective from the start. But his presence brings a lot of excitement to this city and to the team and we think that the squad will respond very favorably on the court tonight. The pelicans finished off first half before the break hot, winning three of four on a four-game road trip. This is their lone home game before they go on the road again, and we think they will bring their A Game tonight.

Both of these teams have been playing badly before the break but we have to take the points with the home underdog here. This is just one of those cases where one team always seems to come to play against another, and the Magic are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings in Orlando and 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings overall. Portland dropped three straight and four of six before the break. The Magic haven’t been playing any better, but they are the ones getting points here and we think that this game is a coin flip for whoever wins it so getting the points in this situation provides some nice value in what should be a close game.

We had the Pacers as our big play on Wednesday and they hung with the Cavs all game until the fourth quarter, and one thing about tonight’s game as a reason why we like the Pacers is even though they come in on a back-to-back, they didn’t give much effort in the fourth last night so they should be relatively fresh! Yes, the Wizards have been playing well but they have dropped four of six ATS as they have been overvalued by the oddsmakers. Washington has played a home-heavy schedule, which has made them look good, but the reality is that this team is 9-14 on the road and the Pacers are one of the best home teams in the NBA.

A lot of people are down on the Clippers right now and with good reason as they have pretty much stunk since their hot start and they have dealt with major injuries as well. But they have been very good recently and are 3-0 SU and ATS in their last three games, and those were all on the road where the Clips traditionally haven’t played great. But they are back at home tonight and they really need this win to go into the all-star break with some momentum. They are at Golden State and vs. San Antonio right after the break, so that makes this game even more crucial against a very beatable opponent. One day of rest as been the sweet spot for the Clips, who are 8-1 ATS in their last nine in this situation. This team has played very good in the past with Griffin in and Paul out, and we think they continue their ascension tonight.

Just think this is too many points for the road team tonight. Unbelievably, the last three times these teams met all three games went to overtime, and that just goes to show you that these squads match up pretty well. The Pelicans are in the last game of a four-game road trip and they have won and covered in two of their last three, so they are playing pretty well right now. In their non-cover they were competitive in a six-point loss at Sacramento as four-point underdogs. The Pelicans have been strong underdogs in this spread range with a 5-1 ATS mark as dogs of between 7 and 10.5 points, and we think this will be another competitive meeting between these squads and OT is not out of the question here!

With their recent body of work, the Bucks just don’t deserve to be favorites by this many over any team in the NBA. This team has been really bad against the dregs of the NBA as they are 1-5 ATS against teams with a winning percentage under .400. The Nets have of course struggled a lot recently but this team has had a very tough schedule but they have been pretty competitive recently and have covered in two of their last four. They have also covered in two of the last three meetings between these clubs. The Nets haven’t done much to cheer about lately but this is a very winnable game for them and we think they give top effort here as they will want to enter the break with a win while the Bucks look like a team that needs to regroup at the break.

These teams played a week ago and the Pacers lost by 15 points at home. Now they face each other in a rematch and the Cavs are pretty small favorites at home here. This line seems fishy and we will side with the sportsbooks on this one. The Pacers always seem to get fired up for this series and they are 7-1-1 ATS in the last nine meetings despite that last loss last week. But this sets up a nice revenge spot for the road team here. Kevin Love had a big game last week with a double-double but he is out now and that leaves the Cavs a bit shorthanded. The Pacers haven’t been a good road team this season but they have been better recently and are 4-0 ATS in their last four on the road. The Cavs have not been good in back-to-back situations like they find themselves in again tonight and are 0-4 ATS in their last four in this situation.

The Lakers as a favorite? No thanks. This team is 3-5 ATS as a favorite this season and they are 3-6 ATS at home against a team with a losing record. We had the Kings as a slight favorite in this game and we expect them to take care of business tonight. The Lakers are a tricky team moving forward as they need to keep losing to get their Top 3 pick in the draft. We aren’t saying that they will tank, but they don’t have a lot of motivation to win. This team should perform well as an underdog but they are more likely to disappoint as a favorite like we see them here tonight.

After losing two straight tough, close games, we expect the Raptors to come out with a big game tonight against the banged-up Bulls. Looks like Jimmy Butler might play tonight but Wade is out again, and this team is just not any good at full strength. They have their moments, but they face a much better team tonight. Even though the Raptors have been struggling a bit to cover lines, this is still one of the best NBA teams against the spread and we expect them to finish in the Top 5 this season in this category as this team rarely takes a night off.

One day of rest seems to be the perfect recipe for the Clippers as they are 7-1 in their last eight in this situation which they see themselves in tonight. And we just think that this is too many points. The Clippers had been struggling but seems like they are back on the right track with two straight wins. Utah has lost two straight and they haven’t looked great in those outings. The Clippers have won and covered in three straight meetings in this series and we just think that this is too many points tonight as we had this line handicapped at 4.5 so there is some nice value here on Monday night.

Dallas has won and covered in three of the last four meetings and we have them handicapped as a slight favorite in this matchup and expect them to win the game. The points are just a bonus in case it’s close. Both teams are playing well but the Mavs have been really underestimated by the oddsmakers and they have cashed in seven of their last eight games. This seems like another spot where they are underrated as the Mavs have been really good at home lately and they are 17-10 ATS here on their home court this season.

A team that has won two straight comes in as a big underdog against a team that has lost nine of 10. But we have to go with the squad with the much better talent here, and because of the Hornets recent struggles we are getting a very solid number here to go against. And you can’t really punish the Hornets for their recent struggles as they have had one of the toughest schedules in the NBA recently but this will be one of their most winnable games tonight and we think they go all out with max effort to get a big win here and they will want to get far ahead in order to avoid the risk of a backdoor cover.

The Raptors have had their troubles in the dog days of the NBA season but this team is still one of the best bets in the NBA at 31-22-1 ATS on the season. They are healthy now and we think that they will want to finish the first half of the season strong before the all-star break. They have won and covered in two of their last three and they are in a good spot here to take that 3 of 4. Detroit has lost 9 of their last 13 games and this team has been very inconsistent all season long but they have been trending downwards in a big way lately. We see the Raps getting a pretty comfortable win here.

The Warriors like to portray an image of being great teammates, whether that is true or not, and we think that they may go overboard to get Kevin Durant a big night here in his first visit back to OKC after leaving the city for the Bay. We think that may screw up their game. This is already a distraction as reports came out today that Durant has hired extra security for this game. The crowd here will of course be a big factor and Golden State is also coming in on a back-to-back and playing their third game in four nights while the Thunder were off Friday and they had two nights off before their last game on Thursday, so they should be well rested here and primed for a big performance. OKC has all the motivation here and we expect them to keep this one close or win straight up.

The Heat have won 13 straight and you can’t argue with that success. But this team is just not as good as they have looked lately and they have benefited from a pretty easy schedule and they have played a home-heavy schedule for the most part. They are on a back-to-back here and they will be playing their third game in four nights while the Sixers had the night off on Friday. We think they may run out of gas here and lose this one straight up. The Sixers are 9-0 ATS in their last nine home games. This team plays hard almost every night, and they have revenge here for a recent beatdown in Miami. It seems like the oddsmakers are begging the public to take Miami here with this small line but we think this is a real bad spot for them and expect the Sixers to keep this very close or win it.

There is something wrong with the Bucks. This team has just fallen on its face big time lately, and the low point of the current fall from grace came in their game against the Lakers last night where they allowed LA to score 47 points in the first quarter! It might be difficult to score 47 points in a quarter with no one defending, but with an NBA defense that just shows a total lack of effort from the Bucks. Now they come into this one on a back-to-back and face a much better team that has one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA right now. This line is more than fair, and we think the Pacers come to play after losing a close one in Washington on Friday.

The Wizards have been one of the hottest teams in the NBA for awhile, but the odds are starting to get inflated with this club, and as a result they have covered in only one of their last four games. Indiana is no scrub, either, as they have won seven of their last eight games overall. Washington showed some troubling signs in their last game as they needed OT to get the win in Brooklyn. These teams are normally pretty competitive when playing each other and we just have to take the points here in what we think is a pretty even matchup.

We love to back the Warriors when they are motivated, and they should be extra motivated tonight after the Grizzlies won the past two against them. The Grizzlies are a team that can give the Warriors some trouble but Golden State is a much better overall team and they are at their best with a chip on their collective shoulders, and that should be the case tonight. We think the Warriors has off nights the last two times these teams played but that won’t happen a third time in a row and this spread is more than reasonable since the Warriors are on the road. Lightning won’t strike three times here tonight as we think the road team wins this one pretty comfortably.

The Bucks haven’t been playing well lately but this is a very winnable game for them and we expect them to get back on the winning track in a big way here. We had this line handicapped at 8, but of course the bookies can’t lay a big line on this game like that since the Bucks haven’t been playing well, but this is only their second game in six nights so they are very well rested and they will go all out for the win here, especially with a much tougher game at Indiana coming up on Saturday. The Bucks have covered in seven out of the last 10 meetings between these teams here in Milwaukee.