Sports Picks & Predictions

The Bulls have been a money pit for bettors lately as they have covered in only one of their last eight games. They have lost three straight coming into this one and they played horribly in a back-to-back, home-and-home against the Bucks. Normally when a team loses the first game of those types of series they come back strong the next night, but the Bulls lost by 26 in the second stanza. That isn’t a promising sign for a team. The Pistons have lost two straight and this team has been inconsistent, but we feel they match up well here. They are 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings and they beat the Bulls pretty soundly in Detroit earlier this month.

Denver has won and covered the last three meetings in this series, and that is the way we think this one is going as well. This is the last game of a long road trip for New York and we think they fall flat in the high altitude of Denver. The Nuggets haven’t played very well lately but they have had an incredibly tough schedule and recently finished a long road trip of their own. But their last game, a home blowout of Portland, was very encouraging, and we think they can build off that momentum here tonight against an overrated Knicks team, which could be missing Derrick Rose tonight.

Houston has been tearing the NBA apart lately and have been playing as well as any team in the league. This is a bad spot for them. They come in on a back-to-back, for a road game no less, and this will be their third game in four nights. The Timberwolves have had a rare three nights off so they have a huge advantage with rest here. And we think they are facing an inflated number as the bookies are starting to adjust on this Houston team. We are starting to see some positive signs from this Timberwolves team. They have covered in two straight and scored a big road win at Chicago last time out. We think this is a solid “buy low” team right now and we had this game handicapped as a PK so we think there is very nice value tonight for our Top Play.

This is an extremely important game for the Hornets in their final game of a five-game road trip. They lost in OT in Boston last night and that makes them 0-4 on this trip so far. They desperately need to win this one to salvage the trip, and if they do lose tonight then that road trip is an utter disaster. Win it and it is just a bad road trip. We think they will go all out for the win here tonight. Both teams come in on a back-to-back so that is even. But the Hawks really expended a lot of energy to win last night at Toronto in revenge of a 40+-point blowout in the previous meeting, and we think the Hornets have more motivation here, not to mention they are a better team. And they should be at full strength tonight with Kemba Walker back in the mix.

We really don’t think that a team being “due” for a win is a viable handicapping strategy but, that being said, we think LA is due for a win and they have a very beatable opponent tonight. This Lakers team started off the season very strong so we know they can be competitive. These guys are young, though, and they went off the rails a little bit. But we still think that this team will get better as the season progresses, and it’s telling that they are favorites here tonight on the road despite their recent lack of success getting wins. The Lakers have covered four of the last five in this series and we think they are the better team by far here. Also, they have road games at Cleveland and Charlotte coming up next, so if they don’t win here the streak will extend for awhile longer.

Orlando as a favorite? No thanks. Orlando as a big favorite? Double no thanks. This team is 1-8 ATS as a favorite this season. They have been more than solid as an underdog when teams normally let down against them, but when they are the hunted team they have mostly fallen flat on their face. Brooklyn has covered five of their last six games and this team is playing above its expectations this season. They come into this one with a lot of confidence after beating the Lakers straight up last time out. We expect this to be a close game and might sprinkle a little on the Nets moneyline if it gets higher close to gametime.

The Spurs played a strong game last night against Boston, now they have to head on the road for a back-to-back against a much lesser opponent, and we think this is a prime letdown spot for them. The Suns are a real feisty team. Despite an 8-17 SU record they are 13-11-1 ATS, and this is the type of team you want to look for in NBA handicapping. They have room to improve on that ATS record as well, but we think they have value in this game as they are coming into this one very confident after playing well in three straight games (two wins and one OT loss).

We like this young Bucks team. They have some real talent here. They don’t always get it done at the betting window or on the court, but they have a lot of potential if you pick your spots, and we think this is a great spot for them tonight. They have lost three straight so they will play really hard here in order to avoid a four-game slide. They also have a rare national TV showcase in Milwaukee and will want to take advantage. The Bulls are on TNT all the time so this is just another game. But for Milwaukee this will be a big deal and they already have a great home-court advantage. The Bucks are 3-1 ATS as a small favorite this season.

The Pacers have five more wins on the season than do the Pelicans but New Orleans got off to a horrible start to the season but right now we think this is a much better team than the Pacers. New Orleans hasn’t played that well lately but they have had a difficult schedule. They looked really good last time out against Golden State, however, and most importantly this team played with an incredible amount of fire in that game. We don’t think “day of the week” trends mean much, except for the Thursday games since that is a unique day in the NBA week. And the Pels are 5-1 ATS in their last six Thursday games while the Pacers are 1-10 ATS in their last 11!

The Pistons were blown out last time out at home vs. Philly. That is a bad loss. And, yes, this team is inconsistent. But it’s because of that loss that we think that Detroit will perform well here. They have had two nights off and should be fresh and they should be focused to put that bad loss in the rearview mirror. And they certainly face a beatable opponent tonight. Dallas has as many wins at home this season as Detroit has on the road. The Pistons have also covered in five of the last seven meetings in Dallas. We expected this line to be over 7 so we are very happy to have seen this released on the other side of the key NBA betting number tonight.

The Lakers have won three straight in this series and we think this is a great spot for them to get another win on Wednesday. LA has lost seven straight and hasn’t been playing that well. But this is a very winnable game for them and they will go all out to avoid extending the winning streak. They play at Philly on Friday, so this is actually a chance to start a winning streak. LA has almost as many wins on the road as the Nets do at home, and we think the wrong team is favored tonight. This is the first time the Nets have been favored all year and we suspect they won’t fare well in the favorite role.

We think that this is a real tough spot for the Magic. They are coming in on a back-to-back after a lot of running and gunning against Atlanta last night in one of the highest scoring games of the season (we had the under there, whoops on that one!). Orlando hasn’t been good on back-to-backs as they are 2-3 ATS and they allow well over their season average on defense. A fatigued team that hasn’t been playing good defense is not a good situation for the home team tonight as the Clippers are pretty well rested having played only two games in the last six nights. Orlando has allowed 116 or more in four of their last five games. This team was pretty good defensively earlier in the season but they haven’t been lately while their offense has been playing better so the over is an easy call here too. But the Clippers can probably pick their score on offense and with the way Orlando has been protecting the basket and with them being on a back-to-back they can probably pick their score tonight.

We just think that this Suns team is underrated right now and we like them as a home dog against the Knicks in a clear letdown spot for New York. They have played the Cavs and Lakers in two of their last three games and now they face the lowly Suns and you just have to think that with the makeup of this team that this will be a good letdown spot for the team. They have been playing well lately but the odds are starting to get inflated higher than the talent on the court would indicate. The Suns are 4-0 ATS at home against teams with winning records and we think they some to play tonight against another top opponent.

These teams have played twice already this season and the Pelicans covered in both meetings. And now they have a better team with Holiday back in the mix. The Warriors have had a busy schedule and this is their eighth game already this month and you can tell by the last few games that this team looks worn out as they were blown out by Memphis and failed to cover against Minnesota and Utah in their last three. We think Anthony Davis will have a huge game here on Tuesday night and he will help his team to a cover against a lackadaisical Warriors team tonight.

The Kings normally fare well ATS in this series with a 13-5-2 mark in the last 20 meetings. We think that this line is a bit too large tonight and we expect a competitive game here. The Kings come in on a back-to-back after a home loss to New York but this team has been really good on bounce-back situations as they are 8-1 ATS after a loss and 5-0 ATS after an ATS loss. We just don’t like the Jazz laying big points like this as this team is banged up right now (Sacramento has a clear injury sheet) and they really haven’t played up to expectations yet.

Golden State has covered six of the last seven meetings in this series. We know the Warriors think of Memphis as a rival and we expect their best effort here. The Grizzlies have been playing a lot better than we expected this year but this team is still down from what we have seen in the past from this club. We think the bottom will fall out soon and that they will start dropping a lot of games. This one sure looks like a mismatch to us. The Warriors are starting to look like the team that was best ATS in the NBA last season and they are well rested after Friday off and we don’t see any problems for them here. Look at who Memphis has played in their current 5-game winning streak: Orlando, LA Lakers, New Orleans, Philadelphia, Portland. They face a big step up in competition tonight.

We think the Blazers are a bit underrated right now. These teams have similar records but Indiana is doing what they are supposed to do and maybe even overachieving a bit while Portland has disappointed a bit and seems to be figuring things out on the court. But we think that this Blazers team is a lot better overall than Indiana. Portland has been a bit streaky as they won three straight and dropped the next two. But they had better get the win tonight because the Clippers and OKC are on deck for this team so this is their best chance for a win and to avoid a longer losing streak. We think they get the job done tonight.

We just really like the Rockets this year and think they are clearly the better team in this matchup. This team is among the best betting teams in the NBA this season at 15-7 ATS, and the reason they are so good at covering is taking care of business in games like this, which they have done many times this season. Houston has also owned this series ATS, covering in seven straight meetings. There are some teams in the NBA that just cover almost automatically against certain opponents, and we think that this is a very weak number for Friday as we had this line at Houston -4.5. OKC is getting all the hype because of Russell Westbrook and his awesome Triple Double run, but Houston is the more complete team and we think they continue their road success tonight where they have as many wins as the Thunder so at home (9-5 on the road this season).

The Bulls have lost three straight but they just went through a brutal stretch of four games in five nights. But they have had a night of rest here and we think that will do them wonders. The Spurs have yet to lose a game on the road this season. That isn’t going to last, and we think they could slip up here. The Spurs have been playing great basketball, but they have covered only one of their last five games, which tells us that their lines are becoming too inflated. We had this game handicapped at PK with a lean to Chicago, so great value here tonight. Chicago is a solid 5-3 ATS at home this season and they have been a solid ATS team at 12-9 despite a recent ATS slide. But we think they will be hyped for this game and play their best game in awhile and we think they have a great chance for the straight up win here. They have covered in three of the last four meetings and they won the last two in Chicago.

We just think that this is a bad spot for the Warriors on Thursday night. They are coming off a Wednesday game against the Clippers, their most hated rival. They played a real strong game against the Clippers last night and now they travel here to a Utah team that will be going all out for the win and had the night off Wednesday. This line looks inflated to us, like most of the Warriors lines are, and we think this might be a spot for a slip up after an intense effort at Staples Center on Wednesday night. You also have to wonder why Steve Kerr kept the starters in so long last night when the game was well in hand. We think that will hurt the visitors tonight against a rested team. Utah played the Warriors tough in Utah last year and we expect the same kind of effort tonight.

We like the Clippers this season and have taken them a lot so far during our hot start to the season. But we still think the Warriors are a lot better team and it’s real rare to get them with this low of points as we see this line here tonight. These teams don’t like each other. Everyone is saying this season how maybe the Clips have supplanted the Warriors as the top team in the west and how they are the only team with the capabilities to beat Golden State in the playoffs. Golden State really enjoys beating up on the Clippers without any extra motivation, but give this team a chip to put on their shoulder and we think their A Game will come out tonight. They always seem to give their best effort against LAC and they really have the ability to get into their heads. Yes, the Clippers bench is better than that of the Warriors but we still think the starters for Golden State are much better and in better form right now as well. The Clips have two more losses at home than the Warriors do on the road. The Clippers haven’t covered in four straight here at Staples Center. The Warriors have won six straight in this series and we think they will be very motivated tonight, and if both teams bring their A Games we think Golden State covers this number pretty easily.

We think this Bucks team is a bit underrated right now. A one-point loss to the Spurs at home is their only blemish on the season so far and the Spurs haven’t even lost a road game this season so that is a pretty impressive result even though they lost. They also beat the Cavs here during that recent stretch. Portland has been playing better but this team isn’t very good on the road and we thought this line should be closer to 4.5 and think there is some nice value here on Wednesday night. Milwaukee has covered in eight of the last 10 meetings and we think that is the direction this one is going in as well.

The Bulls are a very average 6-6 away from home this season while the Pistons have been excellent on their home court at 7-3. The Bulls are slumping right now. They got blown out in Dallas and then laid an egg last night as a decent favorite at home to Portland. This will be their fourth game in five nights and a back-to-back, not a good recipe for a slumping team to get back on the winning track. Detroit has won five of their last seven and they have covered in all the wins. They have also played well against the Bulls, covering in six of the last seven meetings between these clubs. We think that this spread is way too low.

Portland hasn’t been playing great the last couple weeks but they should have some renewed confidence after winning two straight and we think this is a solid “buy low” team right now. Chicago has lost three straight as a favorite and we think there is an excellent chance they lose this one, too. At the very least we think this will be a close, competitive game and the underdog should have no problem cashing this ticket. Portland is well rested as this will be just their second game in December and we think they will come up with some offense here on the road.

Paul Millsap is questionable here for the Hawks but we think they get the job done regardless if he plays or not. The Thunder have been winning and the Hawks have been losing, but the bookies have given the Thunder too much respect here on the road. Atlanta has had a real road-heavy schedule lately and they are coming off two blowout losses and we think they give their best effort here in order to get back on the winning track. It doesn’t take long for the Thunder to get back to public team status when they win, and we think that there is some real solid line value here as a result.

The Nuggets have as many wins on the road as Philly does at home, and we expect Denver to take care of business here tonight. Denver has lost three straight, but all those teams were a lot better than the Sixers and we think that the Nuggets will give their best effort against a very beatable opponent in order to get back on track. We think Denver is really underrated by the bookies and we had this line around 7 so we think there is solid line value tonight.

Portland is a very public play tonight but we will side with the sportsbooks in this one. The Blazers can score, but they can’t defend. But defense is what Miami does so well, and the Heat will be able to keep this one within striking distance on the strength of their defense. The Heat have actually scored 100+ in four straight games, so we think they can hang offensively here tonight. The same probably can’t be said for the Blazers defense. This Portland team is just not very good right now and they have covered in just three of their last 10 games. We expect a very close game here, and either way we should be fine getting this many points.

Dallas has covered and won in three of the last four meetings in this series. This is a real bad spot for the Bulls, They beat the Cavs last night and gave everything they had in that game. We feel it will be tough for them to come out with fire against this lesser opponent. Dallas is playing hard every night and they have covered in three straight games. We feel they will challenge for the win tonight against a weary Bulls squad.

Many of the key players are out here for Memphis, and this line is more because of the recent reputations of these teams than the teams they will field on the court tonight. The Lakers are on a back-to-back after getting blown out in Toronto, but this team is young and proud and we don’t think they will play bad two nights in a row. Especially with such a winnable game here. The Lakers are 7-3-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings in this series and we think they have a great chance for the straight up win here.

We are going to take another shot at the Timberwolves here. This team has kind of been our achillies heel this season but when we think there is value we think there is value, so we aren’t going to back off because we think this team will start performing soon. We think this is a great spot for the road team. These teams played Wednesday in Minnesota and the Knicks won a close one. Revenge normally doesn’t play into our handicapping that heavily, but it does when teams play a home-and-home like this as the team that lost normally gives a lot better effort, and that is what we expect from Minnesota tonight.

The Warriors have been playing great basketball lately, but they haven’t been as consistent as last year and the line for their games have risen. They are 8-9-1 ATS this season They have dropped two straight ATS and they will have two nights off heading into this game. We think that might stifle their momentum a bit. Houston is one of the best ATS teams in the league this season at 12-6 and they are 9-3 ATS in road games. They have covered in seven of their last nine overall. They have an offense that is playing well and can match up with the Warriors and Golden State isn’t dominating on defense yet at this point of the season.

The Clippers have lost three straight, including a blowout loss at Indiana and an inexplicable OT loss at Brooklyn last time out. We just think that this team had a little loss of focus but we think this is a great spot for them to bounce back, and we still think that this is one of the best teams in the NBA right now. They should be as focused as ever to avoid a four-game losing streak and get back on track. We think this is a high priority game for LA while this is just another big TV game for the Cavs. All media reports indicate LA is in a good mental state despite the losses, and Blake Griffin will be fresh here since he sat out the Brooklyn loss for rest. Even after dropping three straight ATS the Clippers are still 10-9 ATS, a much better mark than the Cavs at 6-9-1. Doc Rivers went ballistic after a tech in the Brooklyn game and was ejected. He ripped into his team in the press afterwards. We think the squad will respond with an inspired effort here. We had this game at PK with a lean to the Clippers at that number, so we think getting this many points adds a lot of value as we see the road team getting the win.

The Suns have been great in this series, covering in 11 of the last 15 matchups and in five of the last seven in Phoenix. The Hawks have not played well on this long road trip, having lost three of four, and this is the last game of the trip and no doubt they will be thinking of home. This is just a bad spot for the road team and they are laying too many points here. The Suns have been a feisty club at 10-8 ATS this season. They have been playing better than oddsmaker expectations and they have had two nights off heading into this contest while the Hawks will be playing their third game in four nights. A lot of signs here pointing to a Suns cover, not to mention that this line is inflated in the first place because the Hawks are the “name” team here while no one but sharps want to bet on the Suns.

The Timberwolves have not been very good to start the season, but we do think there is value in this line as we had this one handicapped at -7. The Knicks have been a really bad road team this season. They are just 1-6 on the road this year. They are just 4-7 ATS as an underdog, and this is not a good role for them. Minnesota is going to turn things around at some point and we think they will eventually become an ATS cash cow. They had a tough last couple of games but we think they go all out for a strong win in this one against an overrated team.

Utah played last night (a win for us on the betting line) but we think they are being penalized too much on the line here for the back-to-back. They played a great game at Minnesota and we think they will put up a similar effort here. Yes, they are on a back-to-back, but they had two nights off before the T-Wolves game so they should be in good shape here. This team has now won three straight and they are playing with a lot of confidence right now. Houston has been playing well too, but we think they are overrated in this matchup as we had the Jazz as a slight favorite on our handicapped line.

We think this is a pretty public line tonight. The Cavs are a huge public betting team and even though they are playing great on the court they have not been able to cover the majority of their spreads. The opposite kind of team will be on the other side of the court tonight as the Bucks are a team that no one wants to bet on. They haven’t been good ATS either, but they are not saddled with extra points like the Cavs are on a nightly basis. We thought this line should be closer to 5, so getting this number on the other side of the key NBA betting number of 7 provides some nice value.

Revenge doesn’t usually play a big role in our handicapping but it can if the game in question was recent and the loss was bad for one team. And that is the situation we see here tonight as the Lakers and Pelicans link up for the second time this season in New Orleans. The last meeting was ugly for the home team as the Pels lost by 27 and the Lakers shot better than 55 percent both from the field and 3-point distance. But the Pelicans are playing a lot better now. They have won four straight at home and covered in all those games and they have covered in six of eight overall. This line is a bit short in our opinion.

The Wolves are a team that we have liked this season but this team is not in good form right now and they enter this one having lost four of five. Utah is another team we like and this squad is rounding into form and they have won two straight in blowout fashion. The Jazz have really clamped down on defense and this team has played some of the best D the NBA has seen this season in their last two. We feel they will play well here, too, and this is just a mismatch as the Jazz are a strong playoff type team in their current form while the Wolves are still learning how to play together. The Jazz have also dominated this series lately with four wins and covers in the last five meetings.

Charlotte has won two of the last three meetings and they have covered in three of the last four. They have revenge here as the Grizzlies came into Charlotte last week and won by 15. The game was out of hand early and we have no doubt the Hornets want to make up for that bad performance. The Hornets have had a tough schedule lately and have lost a couple OT games, but this team is much better than the Grizzlies and we think they should be favored by 4.5 or 5.0 in this matchup. Both teams are somewhat banged up on this matchup but the Hornets should get Nic Batum back tonight, and he will give the Hornets a shot in the arm.

This is a case where an overrated favorite (5-10 ATS) hosts a solid underdog (Sacramento is 10-6-1 ATS this season), and the line seems to be inflated. The Wizards haven’t been good here in the favorites role and they are 1-4 ATS when laying three or more points this season. Sacramento is being penalized too much for the back-to-back here, and we like the tenacity this team has displayed this season as they seen to fight hard even in a losing effort. They have covered in six of their last seven games overall and this is another spot where the line looks too big for the underdog. Could definitely see the Kings winning this one SU.

Dallas has lost eight straight. This isn’t a good team. But they are not THAT bad. Six of those eight games were on the road. Three of those road games were against the Spurs, Warriors and Celtics. They also played the Clippers at home. They have the Spurs coming up next and then are at Charlotte. This is really the best chance to stop the losing streak, and we expect their best effort tonight. The Pelicans have been playing better lately but we just don’t like this team in the road favorite role, and this team is 0-4 ATS overall as a favorite this season. We expect a close game and for Dallas to challenge for the win.

The Clippers are coming off a rare loss last time out against the Pistons and now they have a great opponent to bounce back against. We just like the mentality of this Clippers team this year as they are playing their best overall basketball of the BG/CP3 era. They know they have to keep winning to keep pace with the Warriors and we expect an inspired effort after the loss last time out. The Pacers hosted a similar type of team recently in the Warriors and lost by almost 40. There’s no reason to think that this won’t be a blowout with a motivated Clippers club.

The Thunder just aren’t playing well right now and have lost seven of their last 10. They have covered in only three of those games. This is a public team and they are kind of living on their reputation from last season and they just aren’t a very good team right now. The Pistons are flying sky high after beating the Clippers last night and this team is starting to round into form. They haven’t played well on the road but they come into this game with some momentum and they already blew out OKC in Detroit earlier this month so we know they match up well.

We leaned Charlotte last night when these teams met up in New York and we are glad we didn’t pull the trigger as they lost in OT. Revenge is an overrated handicapping factor in the NBA, but it does come into play at certain times, and these back-to-back, home-and-home situations are definitely one of those where it does. When a team loses the night before then they play again, especially back at home, the team that lost before is normally almost an automatic play for us. And the line is just what we expected here for us to pull the trigger on the Hornets for a comfortable win.

The Pelicans are playing some of the best basketball in the NBA right now and have won four straight. They have covered in six straight. The return of Jrue Holiday has really given this team a lift, and Anthony Davis is playing as well as anyone is in the league right now. This team beat the Blazers last week. That was a 12-point home win and it was part of a current 1-5 slide for the Blazers where their only win was against Brooklyn. Forget about revenge here. The Blazers are just trying to figure out what is wrong with their team, and with recent results considered the Blazers would have revenge coming for a lot of teams. We expect a close game here.

Utah has been good as a small favorite and they are 5-1 ATS this season when laying less than five points. That normally means when they are at home vs. a decent team or on the road against a bad one. That first scenario presents itself tonight, and we expect the Jazz to win this one pretty comfortably. Utah broke a 4-game losing streak last time out in a home blowout win against a pretty good Denver team and we think they have a renewed sense of confidence here. This is a team we think will be a factor in the west this year, and although they haven’t played like it yet we think this team will start seeing some better results and we think they match up nicely here on Friday.

The Bucks have had three nights of rest coming into this one and we think that will make all the difference tonight. Toronto is on the last game of a 5-game road trip and they have to be thinking more about home tonight than this opponent, and we don’t think they will give max effort in this game. This will be their fourth game in six nights and the last one on the road, and we don’t think this is a good spot for them. They have lost four of six overall and needed OT to get by Denver, so they are not in the best form right now. Milwaukee has been playing well at home with a 5-3 SU record, and we think they will challenge for the win here tonight as well.

The Thunder were hot out of the gate but the reality of LWD (Life Without Durant) is starting to creep in. This team hasn’t played well lately and is 1-5 ATS in their last six games. The defense has been bad and Russell Westbrook can’t do enough on his own to win games. The supporting cast for this team has definitely been hit or miss. Sacramento has covered four straight and six of their last seven. This team is playing hard every night and they are getting some solid coaching. This is a team that has been so bad for so long that the bookies are slow to adjust the lines here, and that is especially true against a traditional public team like OKC.

The Clippers have won and covered in the last two meetings between these clubs and in three of the last four. We think this team will be up for this game as they want to stick it to Mark Cuban over the DeAndre Jordan fiasco two summers ago. Even though the Clippers have failed to cover in their last four, two of those games failed to cover by half point and one other was close, too. This is a major mismatch and we think this Clippers team will want to get off to a positive start to this road trip with a blowout victory here on Wednesday night. Dallas isn’t doing anything on offense lately and their defense isn’t strong enough to stop this Clippers offense, which is humming on all cylinders to start the season.

We just think that this is too many points for the Pistons to be laying against any team. Miami is a live underdog here on Thanksgiving Eve. And we think this will be a hard-fought defensive battle. Both of these teams are among the tops in the league for points allowed and both offenses leave something to be desired. We expected this total to be in the low 180s and there is a lot of value here in the high 180s. And the lower the total goes the more valuable the points are for the underdog, and that is definitely the case tonight here in Detroit. The under has cashed in four straight meetings and Detroit is 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.

Just think this is way too many points to be giving a Portland team that is struggling right now but that is very talented just the same. The Blazers haven’t been covering many lines lately, but the spreads keep growing for them. And Cleveland hasn’t been a good ATS team, either, but the value is drained from this team because the public will keep betting them whether they cover or not. Portland is better than they have been playing lately and they will be pumped to get back on track against the world champs. Without any major injuries we would probably take Portland plus double digit points every chance we get, and they have covered four of the last five meetings in this series.

Denver has dominated this matchup ATS with four straight covers and five of the last six. This is a team we really like to wager on as an underdog this season. They are 9-4 ATS on the year so far, so they have paid backers handsomely this far. Chicago has been great ATS thus far as well, but we think this is a lousy spot for them as they played both LA teams in back to back nights and have only had one day off then have to play in the high altitude of Denver in their third game in four nights. We think the home dog has a great chance to win this one straight up.

After a real slow start to the season the Pelicans are playing a lot better now. They have won three of four and covered in all those games. Yet the bookies are still lining their games like the team that started out the season slow. They have Jrue Holiday back in the mix now, and even though he isn’t a household name he is a big key for this team. New Orleans has covered in five of the last seven meetings in this series and that’s the way we see this one going in a close game. This is a bad spot for Atlanta as a lone home game sandwiched in between two road trips.

Portland has won and covered in two of the last three meetings and they have covered in six of the last eight in this series. Portland hasn’t covered many lines lately, but they got on track last time out with a win and cover at Brooklyn. They don’t have any travel issues here, going across town to play in MSG against the Knicks. Since the Blazers failed to cover in a string of games the bookies adjusted the total for this team too much. We had them as a slight favorite here and expect them to win this game straight out.

Orlando has been playing great defense lately and we think they will be able to keep the scoring down from the Bucks in this one and cover the spread in a low-scoring game. Orlando has held four of their last five opponents in the 80s, and they are really locked in defensively right now. Their offense hasn’t been great, so they have to get it done on the defensive end. The Bucks have played in some high-scoring games lately but that has been mostly against high-paced teams, and we think Orlando will slow the game down for the under and the cover as an underdog.

The Timberwolves have been a bit up and down this season but we are sticking with them because we think this team will be pretty good ATS when all is said and done. We think this is a very winnable game for them tonight. They have won and covered in the last four meetings against Boston at home. This will be the third game in four nights for the Celtics, and after playing Golden State and Detroit this is probably a letdown spot against a out-of-conference opponent that isn’t a superpower. The Wolves have pretty much been alternating wins and losses lately and they are coming off a real bad performance against Memphis and we think this is a great spot for them to bounce back.

Charlotte has won the last two meetings in this series and they have covered in three straight meetings. The Hornets are 7-4-1 ATS this season and this team holds betting value since they are very off the radar and play well despite big-named stars. This will be the third game in four nights for both teams, but since the Hornets are at home that benefits them big time in this scenario. The Griz have been on the road a lot and this team should be road weary tonight after a long road trip, one home game and then this being the first of two more on the road. Bad spot for the visitors and the line is too short here.

Utah has won five in a row and six of seven in this series. We think that trend continues here on Sunday. Utah is 3-0 on the road against sub-.500 teams and we expect them to challenge for the straight up win tonight. We have taken Denver a few times this season as a dog but we just don’t like them right now in the favorites role and we think the Jazz will go all out to win this game as they have dropped three straight, but all those games were tougher than the one they will face tonight. Defense gets the job done for Utah tonight!

We like the Kings as an anti-public play here on Sunday. Sacramento has been underrated by the oddsmakers this season at 7-5 ATS. They are playing hard and their comeback against the Spurs the other night impressed us as in the past this team gave up in those situations a lot. The Kings have won and covered in the last three meetings between these teams, and they match up well here as well. Toronto has had a string of tough games and we think this is a classic letdown spot here.

The Clippers have covered in six of the last eight meetings in this rare series, and we think that is the way this one will shake out tonight as well. LA is coming in on a back-to-back but they played really well last night at Sacramento and they led that game by as many as 26 before letting the Kings come back a bit in garbage time. We think this Clippers team is being punished by the oddsmakers too much for the b-2-b situation but we think they are the clear play tonight. This is a very athletic and motivated club and we don’t think the back-to-back will affect them, especially at home. The Clippers offense is in mid-season form right now and they have scored 119 or more in three of their last four games. The Bulls have put up some good defensive numbers lately but those have been against mostly very poor defensive teams.

The Timberwolves are a team we were real high on starting the season but they struggled out of the gate. They have won two of three, however, and are starting to play like that confident team that we envisioned before the season started. The Grizzlies are coming in on a back-to-back, and on the road that is always tough. This will also be their third game in four nights, and that is real tough for a physical team like Memphis. They managed only 80 points last night in the win over Dallas, and we think they will struggle on the offensive end here as well as the visitors pull away in the fourth quarter.

We like the home dog here. The Nuggets have covered the last three meetings between these clubs and four of the last five. We think that trend will continue here on Friday. Denver is one of those teams that is undervalued by the oddsmakers. Despite a 4-7 record they are 7-4 ATS, and we think this team has a lot of value tonight. This will be the third game in four nights for Toronto, and after losses to Cleveland and Golden State they will have a tough time getting the win in the high altitude of Denver. Denver played two nights ago but before that they had two nights off, so rest is in their favor big time in this matchup. Denver has had a real tough schedule this season and it’s been road-heavy. But their offense can hang with Toronto and we see them pulling out the win here at home on Friday.

This is a rare matchup of traditionally bad teams on TNT. But this matchup was put on TNT to feature the Timberwolves, and we expect them to shine on the national stage. This team has struggled a bit to start the season but when they have won they have covered and the wins have come in blowout fashion. The Sixers come in on a back-to-back and this will be their third game in four nights. They won at home last night vs. Washington and we think they will be in a letdown spot here. Minnesota has the ability to jump all over teams when they are playing well, and we think they will put forth their best effort in a rare national spotlight.

Portland has covered in five of the last six meetings in this series and that is the way we see this one going as well. Houston comes in on a back-to-back after a hard-fought loss against the Thunder last night. This will be their third game in four nights. Portland hasn’t been great ATS lately, dropping their last five, but that won’t last forever and the odds have gotten pretty enticing for this team as we think there is great value in this matchup and we would probably put the Rockets at -1 here and we think the visitors have a great chance for the straight up win.

4-Unit Play #520 Take Sacramento +6 over San Antonio (10:30 p.m. EST, Wednesday)

This is another situation where a well-known team is not playing up to its potential yet in the young NBA season. The Spurs are fine at 8-3, but you can tell since this team has already lost three games at home that something is wrong here. We just don’t think this team is as good as year’s past, and definitely not as good as last year. The Kings have been playing well lately. They covered three of their last four games. In that last one they took the Blazers to OT, eventually losing on the road. But they have showed a lot of heart lately, and they have had a full four days off to get ready to play their best here. This team is rested and completely healthy. We think they challenge for the win tonight.

3-Unit Play #522 Take LA Clippers -12 over Memphis (10:30 p.m. EST, Wednesday)

The Clippers have started off the season playing like the Warriors did last year. They are jumping all over teams and leaving nothing up to chance. That is a good team to back for ATS profits, and this team is 9-2 ATS and seems to cover any thread thrown at them except against OKC, the only two games they failed to cover so far. They were off yesterday and also are extra rested because their last game was a blowout against Brooklyn and starters got extra rest in that one. We think this Clippers team has learned that every game is valuable and that there can be no off nights if they want to wind up with a good seeding come playoff time. They have covered two straight in this series and we expect that trend to continue tonight. This Memphis team is not as good as the ones we have seen in the past, and the Clippers are a lot better this year.

Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports

3-Unit Play #514 Take Toronto +6 over Golden State (8 p.m. EST, Wednesday)

This is not the same dominating Golden State team as last season. Yes, they are very good. But they aren’t great. Yet. And they are overrated by the oddsmakers and the betting public for sure. They are just 4-6 ATS despite their 8-2 record. Toronto is 2-0 ATS as a dog of four or more points and we have no doubt they will be up for this game as every team tries to give their best effort against the Warriors. Toronto has covered in four straight games and six of seven so this is just a situation where one team is overrated by the bookies while one is underrated and we expect this to be a very close game on Wednesday.

3-Unit Play #516 Take Oklahoma City -2 over Houston (8 p.m. EST, Wednesday)

We think this line is short for the Thunder on Wednesday. This team has lost four straight but they are a better team than that. Their last game was a beatdown in Detroit and we think this team will go all out here at home against Houston to avoid a 5-Game losing streak. The Rockets are 4-3 on the road but most of those wins have come against feeble opponents. We like the Thunder defense to tighten up in this game and the Rockets can’t play defense so we think that will be the difference here on Wednesday and we expect Westbrook to have a monster game for the Thunder.

We went against Brooklyn last night and the Clippers rolled, but we are going to back them tonight here on Tuesday. They face a much lesser opponent tonight and this team has been very good ATS this season at 7-3 ATS. The Lakers have been strong as an underdog but we don’t like them laying a lot of points like this as while they are an improved team this squad is not ready for favorite status. This back-to-back situation isn’t that bad for the Nets as they will be playing in the same building as they did last night and this team is young so fatigue should not be a factor. Brooklyn has been better than expected this season and we expect them to keep this game close tonight.

The Clippers look like the best team in the NBA so far this season and they are looking like the Warriors did last season, just punishing opponents. We don’t see this team taking a club like Brooklyn for granted as they have learned a lot of lessons about this in the last couple of years and they know that this season they have the best squad the franchise has ever had and every game is important. LA has the best defense in the league and Brooklyn one of the worst, and even though this Nets team is 4-5 on the season they have had a pretty easy schedule. But make no mistake this is one of the five worst teams in the NBA. The Clippers have shown the ability to blow good teams out of the water but we think they should win this game by 20+.

This Hornets team is very under the radar but they have been great so far this season at 6-2, including a 3-0 mark on the road. The Cavs are 7-1 but they are only 3-5 ATS as this team is very often shaded by the oddsmakers. The public isn’t going to tough the Hornets here and the oddsmakers know that so they have to add points to the line, and we think this line should be closer to 6. Not a ton of extra value here but enough to make this a play, and we expect a close game here as the Cavs now have an even bigger bullseye on their back after winning it all last year and they will get the best from most opponents. Cleveland is 1-3 ATS at home against above-.500 teams, which just goes to show that they are overvalued in this spot.

The Pistons haven’t won on the road yet and that is a dubious distinction and we think they go all out to get that first road win against a very beatable opponent here on Saturday. They have had some pretty tough road games as two of their last three were at the Clippers and at San Antonio. This opponent tonight is nowhere near the caliber of those squads. Denver is a nice underdog team this season for sure, but we just don’t like them in this role as a decent-sized favorite and we think Detroit has a great chance to win this one outright.

Memphis is heading on the road for 8 of their next 11 and this team will want to get off to a strong start to this trip with a win over a very beatable opponent in the Bucks. The Grizzlies have covered in the last three meetings in this series and they should win this one outright. The Bucks are reeling, having lost two straight to two pretty bad teams, the Mavs and Pelicans. That loss to New Orleans gave the Pels their first win of the entire season. Memphis has had a pretty tough schedule lately so we think they will take care of business here on the road against an inferior opponent. They are very well rested and this is a prime spot tonight.

We think this is a bad spot for the Clippers coming off a hard-fought, down-to-the-wire battle against Oklahoma City last night. That’s a tough back to back to play in as the Thunder are a big, physical team. The Clippers have covered in only one of the last four meetings. The Wolves have gotten off to a slow start this season but this team is much improved this year. They will put it all together, and this would be a statement win for them. We think they bring their best game tonight, and they match up well with Los Angeles. They are coming off a confidence-building road win last time out and have had two days off to rest and prepare for this game. We think they have a very good chance for the straight up win here and we think it will be a very close game regardless.

The Clippers are off to their best start in franchise history and right now this looks like hands down the best team in the NBA. They look like Golden State did last season. They are 7-1 both SU and ATS, and their one loss this season was to these Thunder in LA last week. This was just an off game from the Clippers and not a signal that the Thunder are the better team. LA shot less than 40 percent from the field in that game and the shots just weren’t falling. Despite that off game they were still in the game until the final seconds. Outside of the Clippers win and a blowout loss to Golden State the Thunder have had a pretty easy schedule up until Wednesday when they were pretty much exposed by the Raptors at home in a 10-point loss. We just don’t think that this team is as good as they have looked so far, and the Clippers will want revenge in this game for the one blemish on their record. We had this game handicapped at Clippers -7, so we think there is some great value here. LA has one their last three games by an average of 29 points, and they made the Blazers, a very good team, look foolish last time out. They are playing by far the best defense in the league in allowing around 88 points per game. This team is one of the deepest in the league now with a retooled bench, and everyone seems to be on the same page. Doc Rivers stressed the importance of getting off to a fast start this season since by the start of December they were in such a division hole that they would never be able to recover from. Looks like the players have listened, and we just don’t see them losing to what we consider a mediocre Thunder team twice in the same month.

The Pelicans are on the last game of a three-game road trip tonight. They have a chance to set the franchise record for losses to start a season tonight. We think they give an all-out effort to avoid that tonight. This team has been bad, but they still have some talent and also a guy named Anthony Davis, one of the NBA’s best players and definitely the best player on the court here tonight. This team will probably not be very good this season but they will still win a bunch of games and they won’t be kept out of the winless column for long. This is the most winnable game on this road trip and the Pelicans had two OT losses before this trip so they have been close to getting that first win. The Bucks scored 74 points (in regulation) last time out in their loss at Dallas and we think that current bad offensive form could translate into a Pelicans win tonight.

We will take Miami in Wade’s return to South Beach. Neither team is playing well right now, but the Heat have had a bit tougher of a schedule lately and we think they are well positioned to win and cover here at home. The Bulls haven’t been good on the road this season or last, and Miami has won and covered in four straight meetings in this series. Most public bettors think Wade will have a big game here but he is not as good of a player as he once was, and we expect Whiteside to have a monster game here for the Heat.

We have backed the Clippers a lot this young season and we said we expected a hot start and that is just what happened as they have their best start in franchise history at 6-1 and are climbing up everyone’s power rankings. We think this team is going to be a solid bet all season. However, we do think this line is too large on Wednesday for the home team. These teams met in the Clippers season opener and LA won by eight in Portland but the game was tied heading into the fourth quarter and that loss sets up a revenge spot here for the Blazers. The Clips have the best scoring defense in the league but the Blazers were able to put points on the board against them (only team to eclipse the century mark) and we think they will be able to put enough points on the board to keep this one close.

We like the Raptors in this spot. This starts a big stretch of 8 of 10 games on the road for Toronto against a lot of tough teams but we think they will want to get off to a hot start here against the Thunder. We think OKC is a bit overrated right now. Yes, they are 6-1 this season. But they have had a home-heavy schedule that has featured teams like Phoenix, LA Lakers, Minnesota and Miami, all teams that were supposed to be bad or have struggled so far. They won at Philly in a game they didn’t cover, got blown out at Golden State and barely beat a Clippers team that played by far their worst game of the season (the team was ice cold from the field).  The Raps have had a couple nights off and come into this one rested. This has been a good team ATS the last couple years for covering in games like this and we think they have a great chance to challenge for the win tonight.

So we have been on the Lakers quite a bit this season and that’s been a major reason for our hot start. But it doesn’t take long for the numbers to get inflated with this team when they play well. And that is the case tonight against a team that has owned them with 10 straight wins against the Lakers, six coming by double digits. This is a young team and they are well coached now, but we still think that maybe it’s too early for them to be lined like this against a team like Dallas, even though the Mavericks haven’t started off the season well. The Lakers couldn’t score on the Mavs last season and Dallas held them under 90 points, on average, in the three-game sweep. We think their defense will get the job done tonight again.

Both of these teams have been cash cows so far this season with the Suns at 4-2 ATS and the Lakers at 5-1 ATS. The Suns are playing well but we have to go with the home team here and we expected this line to be higher and there is some very nice line value here. The Lakers have had a little tougher schedule this season and this team just dominated the Golden State Warriors last time out and they are playing with a lot of confidence right now. Their success this season so far just shows how important coaching is in the NBA and we think this line is short tonight.

We are just really high on this Clippers team to start the season. They have started slow almost every year of the Chris Paul/Blake Griffin era, but this year they look a lot different and they seem to be in mid-season form despite a close loss to Oklahoma City last time out. In that game just about every player besides Chris Paul had an off game. But we think they will bounce back strong here. The Spurs enter on a back-to-back after a tough matchup in Utah on Friday. This team has looked good so far but it has mostly been a pretty easy schedule outside of the Golden State game and the two against Utah. But something just seems a bit off with this team to start the season. We expect a close game here, and it would not be shocking to us to see the road team with straight up.

When the Sixers play the Cavs it’s like their own little version of the NBA Finals and they seem to elevate their game big time against this opponent. They have covered in six of the last seven meetings in this series. Although they have only won one of those matchups, this is the best Philly team we have seen during that stretch and the line is not much different than what we have dealt with in the past. The Cavs have looked great to start the season but this team is overvalued by the oddsmakers as is indicated by their 2-3 ATS record despite their 5-0 SU record. This will only be their second road game this season. This is one of the biggest home games for Philly this year and we think these young guys give a great effort here in a close game.

The Timberwolves have gotten off to a slow start on the season at 1-3. But this team is going to be pretty good this season and it’s just a matter of time before they start cashing some tickets. This is a role that they were very good in last season as a decent underdog on the road. This team matches up well with OKC and they have covered in three of the last four meetings. They even scored a straight up win in the last meeting in OKC. These games have mostly been close lately and now Minnesota has lessened the gap of talent between these two clubs as they are getting better while the Thunder lost a lot when Durant left to greener pastures.

We were on the Warriors last night as they hosted the Thunder and blew them out. Now they travel to Los Angeles in a game that is much less important to them. But this game means a lot to the Lakers, and this game is very big for the youngsters of the Lakers. If anyone knows how to slow down the Warriors attack it’s a former coach, and Luke Walton will devise a good gameplan to keep this one close. LA is very confident coming off a road win in Atlanta and this team was one of the few to beat Golden State in the regular season last year. We think this will be a real competitive game. Despite the results against OKC last night this Warriors team is still working some things out and we don’t think this big spread is warranted tonight.

The Jazz match up well here. So well, in fact, that they just scored a 15-point win in San Antonio a couple nights ago. This Spurs team is a veteran club and they are just focused on becoming a better team and this team is not the type to obsess over revenge against a team like this. And the Spurs host the Clippers tomorrow night, and we think that is the game they will be more focused on. We missed the good opening line on the total here but think this will be lower-scoring than that recent meeting and the lower the point total the more valuable the points are with the underdog.

The Knicks have won and covered in three of the last four meetings. New York is 1-3 on the season while the Bulls are 3-1. But Chicago has had an easier schedule and we don’t think these two teams are as far apart as this spread would indicate. We expect the Knicks to tighten up defensively in this matchup and expect a close game. The Knicks have a couple players in Rose and Noah that will want to play their best here against their old team, and we expect the Knicks to cover this one if not win outright.

The Pelicans are 0-5 on the season and the spreads just keep getting better for this team and this squad is starting to see some real value. If this game was on opening night the Pelicans may be a 8-point favorite. But Phoenix has been more competitive than expected and the Pelicans have yet to win a game, therefore we have a slim line here. But make no mistake the Pelicans are a lot better of a team than the Suns and Phoenix is only 1-4 so even though they have played well they are not playing well enough to warrant this kind of spread on the road. This line tells me these teams would be about pickem on a neutral floor, and with Anthony Davis being one of the NBA’s best we think the Pels have a decided edge.

In this matchup of Durant vs. Westbrook the Warriors have a huge edge. The Thunder come in on a back-to-back after a hard-fought win at the Clippers on Wednesday and now they face an even tougher test here on Thursday. Both these star players want to win this game, but Westbrook expended a lot of energy last night against LA and Durant has a much better supporting cast. The Warriors have an us-against-the-world mentality and I have a feeling that the rest of the Warriors want this game for Durant even more than Durant does. We expect the best performance of the year from Golden State here, and this one should be a blowout.

Indiana has won two straight in Milwaukee and three of four in the series overall. They are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in Milwaukee. We just think that this Pacers team is the better ballclub right now and our first thought when we saw this line that it was a bit short. Both teams have been allowing too many points on defense, but the Pacers seem to have the better offense at this point and their backcourt should be able to get the job done for the road win tonight, their first of the season, against a very beatable opponent.

This is another great spot for the Clippers, who we are very high on entering the season. They are 3-0 SU and ATS this season thus far. Coach Doc Rivers has emphasized a fast start this season and this team is really looking better than they have at any point early-season in the Blake Griffin era. This is a horrible spot for OKC. They play the Warriors on national TV tomorrow. Russell Westbrook and his massive ego are probably putting in all their chips on that game and could care less about this one. We don’t expect max effort here. All anyone ever asks Westbook is about Durant leaving to greener pastures. You can tell by his responses that he is really bothered by this. He will give it his all on Thursday but on Wednesday this is a real look-ahead spot for the visitors.

The Suns have had the toughest schedule in the NBA to start the season as they played OKC, LAC and GSW. They are battle tested. Two of those were on the road. They covered in two of the three games. We think they will play well tonight here and challenge for the win. The Blazers come in on a back-to-back after chasing the Warriors around all night and an after-Golden State back-to-back is tougher than a normal one since everyone wants to beat the Warriors. We think the Suns have a great chance to win this one straight up.

This is more of a fade of Detroit than a backing of Brooklyn but we think the Pistons will be one of those teams that plays well at home this season and struggles on the road. They have looked good at home in beating three lousy teams but they lost bad on the road in their lone road game so far. The Nets have been playing hard this season and are better than expected as they are 3-1 ATS on the season. We expect them to play well here and challenge for the win. Brooklyn has covered in six of the last eight meetings.

These teams played last week and the Grizzlies got a close win at home. The Timberwolves led by as many as 17 in that game but Memphis rallied in the second half and the game went down to the wire. That sets up the perfect revenge spot tonight for the Timberwolves and we think they get the win here at home. They have covered six of the last eight meetings in this series and this is the best team they have had during that stretch and you can probably say the opposite for the Grizzlies. The line is right here and this looks like a great spot for the Timberwolves to get their first win and cover of the season.

Just don’t like this New Orleans team right now and besides Anthony Davis this team doesn’t offer much in terms of scoring. Yes, Davis is leading the league in points per game but the team has not had any success on the floor. This team is massively overrated by the oddsmakers and the general betting public right now and we think the Bucks have a great chance to score a road win here, especially if they can focus on slowing down Davis and playing team basketball. This really seems like a line set to attract New Orleans money but we think the underdog is the clear play here.

Neither team has a win, but we don’t think the Magic should be favored by this many points against anyone, much less on the road. This is a very winnable game for the Sixers and we expect a strong game from the home team tonight and think this will be a very close game no matter who comes out on top. We had the Magic -1 in this contest and think there is some very nice value here. Orlando hasn’t been playing very good defense and we think the Sixers will be able to score enough points to keep this one close on Tuesday.

Both teams are coming into this one on back-to-backs but the Clippers were at home yesterday also so they are in a better position with no travel. Phoenix also played Golden State on Sunday at home and put up a pretty good effort in a six-point loss and we think this is a letdown spot for them after that game, one they surely wanted more than this one. The Clippers are underrated to start the season. Everyone remembers the playoff exits and frustrations with this team but no one remembers how good this team can be, and coach Doc Rivers has emphasized a fast start this year as this team has been notoriously slow to start. But they have looked great so far and look to be in midseason form, and we expect them to dominate this much lesser opponent tonight.

Minnesota is a team we think the oddsmakers are behind on here at the start of the season. We had them in the season opener The Timberwolves lost in Memphis in their opener but the game was nothing to be ashamed of as they played well and gave the Grizzlies a fight to the end on a night Memphis played an awesome game. The Kings are just not a very good team this season. They basically have DeMarcus Cousins and not a lot else. This team has been great to bet against in recent years and we think that are overvalued tonight as the Wolves should be -5 here minimum. Great line value tonight. The Wolves should easily get their first win of the season tonight.

Memphis played really well in their season opener against Minnesota and we think the Knicks are way overrated this season, at least to start the season. This team is a puzzle and they are hoping all the pieces fit together right but we think that will take time if it ever even happens. Memphis is healthy and confident coming into this one and we think they will get the win here on the road tonight.

Orlando hasn’t looked very good to open the season but you can’t judge a team by just two games and we expect them to give the Cavs their best shot tonight. Cleveland is coming in on a back-to-back after a hard-fought game against rival Toronto last night and now they face a much lesser opponent and we think this is a prime letdown spot for them tonight. This team is often overvalued by the oddsmakers but that is very evident here with this huge number on the back-to-back. We think Frank Vogel will have his team ready tonight and we think Orlando is a solid value play.