Sports Picks & Predictions

**8** NBA WESTERN CONFERENCE GOW *3-0 RUN* It

**9** NBA DARK HORSE DANDY **77% ANGLES** Toronto is coming off a home win over Detroit and it takes to the road for the second time this season. The first road game resulted in a loss in Memphis but that one can be excused as the spot was horrible. The Raptors has just won a home game against Cleveland and had a home game against Orlando on deck so they were sandwiched in a typical letdown/lookahead scenario. The situation here is much different as this is the first game of a difficult three-game roadtrip with Dallas and San Antonio up next on Saturday and Monday. This could be the most winnable game of the bunch and Toronto needs to start this tough stretch right. New Orleans got away with one on Wednesday as it was on the verge of another loss but Peja Stojakovic hit a game-tying three-pointer in the final seconds of regulation against the Mavericks and the Hornets were able to pull away in overtime. They are now 2-0 at home with that victory along with a five-point win against Sacramento, one of the worst teams in the entire NBA. That emotional win over Dallas coupled with a game at the Lakers on Sunday puts the Hornets in a very tough spot, similar to the one that the Raptors were just in. The normally solid New Orleans has not been playing well, allowing opponents to shoot 46.8 percent from the floor. This is also a good spot for Toronto based on matchups. New Orleans has the big edge at point guard with Chris Paul but the Raptors big men have a huge advantage over the low post players for New Orleans. Play against home teams that are averaging between 98 and 102 ppg going up against a team that is allowing 102 ppg or more after two straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more. This situation is 37-13 ATS (74 percent) since 1996. New Orleans is just 2-13 ATS when the total is greater than or equal to 200 over the last two seasons so it has not fared well in these predictable shootout situations. Meanwhile, the Raptors are 5-1 ATS in their last six games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. 9* Toronto Raptors

**8** NBA ANTI-PUBLIC BLOWOUT *83% ANGLES* We are seeing crazy money come in on the Hawks here and why not? They are 4-1, turning into a very public team and playing the lowly Bobcats. Yet the line is moving the other way on us as it opened at +3 and Charlotte is down to +2.5 and this reverse movement is a big flag. This is the third game in four nights for the Hawks and while that isn

**9** NBA STAR ATTRACTION (TNT) *64% RUN* Motivation is a big factor in the NBA as some nights teams give it an extra push based on the situation while other nights it is just the opposite. Tonight, we will see the former in Salt Lake City. Utah is coming off a brutal loss in Dallas on Tuesday as it took a 15-point lead into the fourth quarter only to get outscored 44-18 behind 29 points from Dirk Nowitzki who finished with a game high 40 points. It can be argued that a loss like that can carry forward but how about two losses? Prior to that, the Jazz were throttled at home against Houston by 17 points after another fourth quarter meltdown. That makes it two straight humbling defeats and that is better to come back from as there is a greater sense of urgency at this point. If there is any pride in these players, they will come back and protect their home floor. Let

**9** NBA SUPREME ANNIHILATOR **59% RUN** Washington is looking to settle some scores on Wednesday, four of them actually. The Wizards were swept last season by Miami and only one of those games was actually a competitive game as the Heat had three wins by 14, 22 and 20 points. Even though Gilbert Arenas did not play in any of those meetings, he was there and there is no doubt he has not forgotten those games. Washington is coming off a loss last night in Cleveland so that sets this one up much better than if it had won against the Cavaliers. The Wizards are 2-2 to start the season but three of those first four games have been on the road and all against likely upcoming playoff teams. They won their lone home game, an easy victory against an overmatched New Jersey team. Miami is coming off a loss last night as well as it was outscored by 14 points in the fourth quarter against the Suns. That was the first loss of the season for the Heat but they have not exactly been playing the toughest of competition as New York, Indiana and Chicago are not the cream of the crop in the Eastern Conference. The only road game thus far was against the Pacers and it was one of those games where the road team had the favorable calls. Miami went to the free throw line 46 times compared to 26 for Indiana and that is rare for the road team to have such a big differential. The Pacers also shot a miserable 4-23 (17.4 percent) from behind the arc. Miami won despite going 1-7 from long range and posting a 16/15 assist/turnover ratio. Miami allowed Phoenix to shoot 50.6 percent from the floor and make 9-23 three-pointers (39.1 percent) after giving up an average of 87.7 ppg on 38.6 percent shooting, including 21.6 percent from three-point land, in its first three games. Washington possesses the same type of firepower as it is averaging 101 ppg through four games and is shooting a healthy 48.1 percent from the floor including 40.7 percent from behind the arc. Last night just was not the Wizards night as they allowed Cleveland to shoot 17 more attempts from the floor and the Cavaliers finished with a 25/7 assist/turnover ratio and not many teams can overcome efficiency like that. 9* Washington Wizards

**8** NBA DARK HORSE DANDY **78% ANGLE** Philadelphia is getting a great number here. The Sixers have won two straight games after starting the year with a pretty bad loss at Orlando. They were able to dispatch Milwaukee in their lone home game so far this season and that was followed up with the overtime win in New York on Halloween night. At full stretch, this is a very solid team and right now Philadelphia is at full strength. The Sixers were swept by the Celtics last season and they have lost seven of the eight meetings over the last two seasons so this is a huge game for them to determine exactly where they currently are. First year head coach Eddie Jordan has brought in a new attacking style for the Sixers and it is based around running a version of the Princeton offense. The Princeton offense is one of the most complicated offensive systems run in the NBA, as all five players on the court must be viable options to pass the ball to the open man, get an open shot, and knock it down. While it is a tough offense to learn it is just as tough for a defense to prepare for. Boston has looked great to start the season. The Celtics opened with a road win at Cleveland on opening night and it has won their three games since then, all of which came at home. The line in that Cavaliers game tells us a lot as they were getting five in tat game and now they are favored by seven points so the linesmakers are telling us that the Cavaliers would be favored by 12 points over the Sixers on a neutral floor and that simply is not the case so we are getting excellent value in this line. The big news out of Boston is the newly signed contract for Rajon Rondo and that is overshadowing his availability for tonight. He is questionable with an ankle injury and while it is likely that he will be playing, he will not be 100 percent. Philadelphia falls into a solid situation based on line value. Play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that won between 45 and 55 percent of their games from a season ago. This situation is 28-8 ATS (77.8 percent) since 1996 with the average point differential being +0.9 ppg. 8* Philadelphia 76ers

**8** NBA ESPN STAR ATTRACTION **72% RUN** The season did not start the way Dallas wanted it to with a home loss against the Wizards on opening night. The Mavericks are notoriously slow starters but they were hoping this season would be different as they have retooled their team to provide better depth are more weapons on offense. That certainly did not show against Washington but we can simply chalk it up as a bad shooting night as Dallas hit only 39.5 percent from the floor including a dismal 22.2 percent from long range (4-18 shooting). The team chemistry was there as the Mavericks committed only nine turnovers so there is no cause for concern with the exception of simply missed shots. The Lakers had their big ceremony on Tuesday night as it looked as though it may not have been a distraction as they came out strong with a big first quarter but then the adrenalin wore off and they let the Clippers hang around the rest of the game. The Clippers committed 20 turnovers and they shot 21 fewer free throws than the Lakers so improvements in those areas would have likely meant a victory. The Lakers shot 41.2 percent from the floor and like the Mavericks, that is not a big cause for concern but they hit only 67.6 percent from the free throw line, committed 16 turnovers and allowed 51 rebounds including 15 on the offensive end. Those are definite causes for concern. The two practices for Dallas between the opener and tonight's game were what you'd expect from an angry team, extremely competitive and even chippy at times. That is a good sign for a team that looks like it is more than ready to come back with more fire. The Lakers swept the season series a year ago, winning all three matchups by seven points each time and that was one of the closest series that the Lakers were involved in showing the matchups are definitely not in their favor like they are against other teams. As a matter of fact, the last seven meetings in this series have been decided by seven points or fewer. The last eight NBA Champions (LA Lakers, Boston, San Antonio, Miami, San Antonio, Detroit, San Antonio and LA Lakers) have combined for a 23-46 ATS mark (33.4 percent) through their first two weeks of the following year. This includes the Lakers first game this season, an ATS loss against the Clippers. It does take a while to adjust and the opposition obviously wants to take out those teams to start their year off right. The Mavericks are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games following a double-digit loss at home so they have been a great bounce back team. In this series, the road team is 7-0-1 ATS in the last eight meetings. 8* Dallas Mavericks

**9** NBA SUPREME ANNIHILATOR **72% RUN** Charlotte is coming off a horrible game in its opener against the Celtics. Thinking it would have been a letdown spot for Boston after it defeated the Cavaliers the previous night, it was anything but that. The Celtics did not shoot the ball particularly well but they did not need to as the Bobcats were the ones guilty of poor shooting. They went just 23-74 from the floor for 31.1 percent including a goose egg from long range as they went 0-10. They also shot a dismal 13-25 from the free throw line, good for only 52 percent, while dishing 10 assists and committing 18 turnovers. Basically nothing went right for Charlotte so Friday it gets to come home and face a team that is considered one of the worst in the conference. The Knicks are not expected to do very much this season and the season got started on a bad note, losing by 22 points in Miami. New York shot 37.9 percent from the floor including 25.6 percent from long range as it hoisted 39 shots from behind the arc. The defense is going to be a real issue and that is great news for the Bobcats. The Knicks allowed Miami to shoot 56.6 percent from the floor and things could have been worse if not for the 16 turnovers committed by the Heat. New York is going to live and die by the long ball and taking away Danilio Gallinari going 7-13 from long range, the rest of the team went 3-26 from three-point range for a woeful 11.5 percent. One of the plans this season was for Charlotte to run more and that certainly did not take place in Boston as the Bobcats were outscored 16-8 in fast break points. Welcome in the Knicks. Miami did not take advantage of all of the missed shots the other night as it was content to go with the flow but Charlotte will be looking for easy baskets in transition. Charlotte was an improved team last season as it won 35 games and looks to better than this season with a quality core of players that has spent time together along with some key new additions. Still, while head coach Larry Brown feels better about his second Bobcats

**8** NBA TNT STAR ATTRACTION *82% ANGLES* Early money is all over the Spurs in this game as 82 percent of the market is on San Antonio following its relatively easy victory last night. Even with that early money coming in on the road team, the line has shifted the other way from an opening of -4 to the current line of -3.5 in some places. The Spurs shot 52.3 percent from the floor last night and that was with newly acquired Richard Jefferson going just 1-7 in his San Antonio debut. The problem last night was that the defense allowed the Hornets to shoot 50 percent from the floor and that does not bode well for tonight playing in a back-to-back situation against a team that has yet to take the floor this season. There is a list of reasons why the Bulls should be at least somewhat improved this season. Chemistry ranks high among them and with that comes a better defensive philosophy and effort. The loss of Ben Gordon, the team

**9** NBA GAME OF THE MONTH ***100% YTD*** This is not the same Detroit team that went to the Eastern Conference Finals for six straight seasons and two NBA Finals appearances including an NBA Championship. It is also not the same team from last season that was swept in the Conference Quarterfinals last year. As a matter of fact, only six Pistons remain from last year's team and they are now guided by first-year head coach John Kuester. There is talent on this team still but it is going to take a while for the chemistry of this new group to come together and we are getting a steal going against them as road favorites here. Last season, the Pistons finished the season four games under .500 and five games under .500 on the road. The overall record was 15 games better than the Grizzlies but Memphis only had two fewer wins at home than Detroit did on the road so thus there is absolutely no big edge for the Pistons on the road here. The Grizzlies have not had a winning season in three years and they are optimistic to turn that around. They are the only team in the NBA that have four players to average at least 17.5 ppg from last season thanks to the additions of Allen Iverson and Zach Randolph. They haven't had a power forward with Randolph's ability in nearly two years since Pau Gasol was traded to the Lakers. He's consistently been one of the five or six players in the league who average at least 20 points and 10 rebounds over the course of a season. Defense and rebounding were big issues a season ago and both are being addressed and things are on the upturn. The Grizzlies were outrebounded by opponents last season by 1.1 per game but they outboarded their opponents by more than six per game during this preseason, averaging 43.5 rebounds which were sixth in the NBA. They also ranked third in the league with 10.4 offensive rpg during the preseason. Granted it was just preseason but there was a clear improved effort that was shown on the floor.

**8** NBA OPENING NIGHT DARK HORSE DANDY This is one of the best scenarios to go against on opening night. It is banner night in Los Angeles and we know what that means. The Lakers will be lowering their 2008-09 NBA Championship banner along with getting their rings on Tuesday on opening night and playing a basketball game is not at the forefront for the players right now. This is a huge night and with that comes a lot of distractions. Focus is going to be an issue but even more so is the bulls-eye on their backs. Los Angeles is once again the favorite in the Western Conference and for good reason as it looks to have gotten even stronger with the addition of Ron Artest. I am certainly not denying the fact that the Lakers are the team to beat while the Clippers will be in the back of the pack clawing for a playoff spot but in spots like this, the Lakers are severely overvalued. Nearly 75 percent of the action has been put on the Lakers as of Monday afternoon and that is surely going to continue which gives us some excellent value with the Clippers. The Lakers swept the season series last year which came after sweeping the season series in 2007-08. They had covered six straight before dropping the final two meetings last season against the number as those were the only two games during this eight-game stretch that were decided by single digits. The Lakers have been favored by at least 13.5 points when they are the home team during the last three meetings so why are the reigning NBA Champions only favored by 10-points here? That is definitely a red flag and the public is biting on a line they feel is way too low in what has been a one-sided series. Injuries could play a role in this game. Pau Gasol did not practice over the weekend and probably won't play Tuesday, if the body language and overall uncertainty over his strained right hamstring is to be interpreted correctly. For the Clippers, Blake Griffin is out with a broken kneecap so his debut will be delayed at least six weeks. Now let

**9** NBA STAR ATTRACTION ***71% RUN*** I will keep this one short and sweet. The Lakers put a dagger through the Magic on Thursday and this series is all but over. Orlando had numerous chances to put Los Angeles away in Game Four to tie up this series but it was not able to take care of business. The Lakers easily played their worst game of the series but it was enough to win and that proved the point that the matchups are simply in their favor. The Magic shot a dismal 29.9 percent in Game One and 41.8 percent in Game Two. To no ones surprise, they lost both of those games. Orlando came back on Tuesday and shot a blistering 62.5 percent from the floor and it needed every bit of it to pull out the win. It shot 41.9 percent on Thursday and it was fortunate the game was as close as it was due to the poor offense performance from Los Angeles. The big reason for that was the poor output from Kobe Bryant for a second straight game. He finished just 11-31 from the floor as his touch was once again not there. This followed a dismal performance on Tuesday as after a hot start, he missed 10 of his final 12 shots while also missing five of his 10 free throw attempts. Not to mention the fact of his lack of production and numerous miscues in the fourth quarter. He did go 8-8 from the line in Game Four including some clutch ones down the stretch. Even an average game from him will give the Lakers the crown. 9* Los Angeles Lakers

**9** NBA STAR ATTRACTION ***69% RUN*** Linesmakers are thinking what a lot of the sharp players are thinking and that is the fact that the Lakers will come out and conceivably win Game Four. The line is already down to -2.5 and is actually -2 at some shops so the Magic win is not swaying action toward their side to even up this series. If not for a missed layup at the end of regulation in Game Two, Orlando would have the ball in its court and would really be able to put the pressure on the Lakers. Instead, despite the Game Three Loss, the Lakers still have the upper hand and they can really put Orlando in a tough spot with a Game Four win. The Magic shot a dismal 29.9 percent in Game One and 41.8 percent in Game Two. To no ones surprise, they lost both of those games. Orlando came back on Tuesday and shot a blistering 62.5 percent from the floor and it needed every bit of it to pull out the win. The Magic shoots 45.8 percent at home compared to 45.5 percent on the road so it isn

*10* NBA FINALS GAME OF THE YEAR *69% RUN* I think we are already seeing a must win game for the Magic and that means three big factors favoring Los Angeles. First, we will get line value as the teams that are in must win spots always have their lines inflated by the linesmakers. Second, because of the situation, the public will be all over the team needs the win and that is certainly the case tonight. Last but not least, all of the pressure is on Orlando right now, especially after dropping Game Two in which it very well could have won. We are seeing the matchup disadvantages that Orlando has in this series. Dwight Howard has been pretty non-existent in both games and he failed to show up at all in the Game One and in overtime in Game Two. Stars are supposed to take over when needed and we have yet to see that from Howard. The Magic have two fast break points this entire series and that is horrendous. It has been said over many media outlets that Orlando cannot win playing a half-court game but the Lakers are forcing them into it. A lot of that is due to coaching and the coaching edge is completely lopsided in this series which cannot be underestimated. There is a lot of motivation on the side of Los Angeles right now and the focus is not going to let up. Watching Kobe Bryant in the post-game press conference after Game Two certainly shows that. Add to the fact that Bryant had a pretty bad game on Sunday and he especially will be motivated to take this one over himself and we all know he is capable of that. The last thing the Lakers want is to give Orlando a even a slight chance of hope in this series. They pretty much know that a win here means the series is over and likely over after four games. The Lakers are 8-3 straight up and 9-2 ATS as an underdog this season. This includes a 2-1 record in the playoffs with both of those wins coming outright. With this line, we can still lose a close game and get the cover. That is important as the least likely scenario will be an Orlando rout. If anything, it would be just the opposite. 10* Los Angeles Lakers

**9** NBA STAR ATTRACTION ***75% RUN*** The importance of this game is just as big for the Lakers as it was in Game One. The team knows it cannot head to Orlando with a 1-1 split in this series since the next three games are all on the road. Los Angeles showed us it was on a mission in the first game and that type of effort will be in place yet again. One huge edge for the Lakers is that they were in this same position a year ago but had to start on the road in the NBA Finals against Boston. They know holding serve on their home floor is absolutely huge. Orlando had significant matchup advantages with Cleveland but that will not be the case with the Lakers. We have already witnessed this for one game. Cleveland did not have a supporting cast to go along with LeBron James but the Lakers in fact do have a much better balanced team than the Cavaliers. The Lakers also have Andrew Bynum who can give Dwight Howard some trouble as we have already seen and overall, the Lakers are a much better rebounding team than Orlando, especially on the offensive end. That can make a big difference between a win and a loss and in our case, the difference between a cover and a non-cover. Another big factor is free throw shooting which usually doesn

**9** NBA STAR ATTRACTION ***72.7% RUN*** I consider the Lakers a better team than Cleveland even though they finished one game behind Cleveland for the NBA

**9** NBA STAR ATTRACTION **8-2 ATS RUN** The action is pretty evenly split for this Game Six which I thought would be the case. We have half of the public on Orlando based on home court advantage and the other half on Cleveland based on momentum from a big Game Five win. I firmly believe the latter is where the smart money is for this game. While it is another

**8** NBA STAR ATTRACTION **7-2 ATS RUN** The home team has won and covered the last two games of this series but that is where it ends. This line is the typical

**8** NBA STAR ATTRACTION **6-2 ATS RUN** I was on the Cavaliers in Game Four and they easily could have pulled that out and tied this series up but instead it has become a

*10* WESTERN CONF. 3RD ROUND GOY *80% RUN* The action is split pretty evenly for this pivotal Game Five in Los Angeles. The general thinking here is that the Lakers will be a hungry team after getting blown out in Game Four in Denver and they should be able to return that favor on their home floor. Los Angeles had the exact same scenario in its last series against the Rockets as it split the first four games, including a big loss in Game Four, and came back and destroyed Houston in Game Five. Let

**9** NBA STAR ATTRACTION **6-0 ATS RUN** I was all over Orlando for Game Three and at first glace, it looks like it is in another good spot. The Magic opened as favorites but the Cavaliers have been hammered since then and they are now the road favorites. This tells us one of two things. Either the early sharp money is on the right side or this line is being driven to the wrong side based on the

**9** NBA STAR ATTRACTION **5-0 ATS RUN** What I don

**9** NBA STAR ATTRACTION *58.9% ATS RUN* Momentum could not be any more on the side of the Cavaliers right now. Had that been in Game One, Cleveland would have had a big edge for Game Two since it would have remained home. In this case, the Cavaliers have to travel to Orlando and I think that any momentum gained by the LeBron clutch shot, is lost due to the change in venue. Most importantly, we have seen that Orlando matches up extremely well with the Cavaliers, arguably the toughest matchup they have of any team in the NBA. Also, the fact that the series is tied and Orlando has stolen the home court edge, you can say that it and not the Cavaliers have the momentum edge. Orlando was able to come back in both games from huge deficits and that alone says a lot about the character of this team. The slow starts in both games may be considered an issue as in the two first quarters of the series, Cleveland has held Orlando to 34 percent shooting and 17.5 points per quarter. ESPN analyst Jon Barry summed it up perfectly.

Fargo's **8** NBA STAR ATTRACTION *58.6% ATS RUN* Denver has covered all 12 of its playoff games and the short price at home is getting the bettors to line up behind the Nuggets once again. They outplayed the Lakers in the first two games of this series in Los Angeles and now that the series has shifted to Denver, the Nuggets look to be in absolutely great shape. Add to that they have won 16 straight games at the Pepsi Center making this an even stronger play for the public. The Nuggets now have the home court and also the pressure that goes along with it. The Lakers are not being given a chance by too many in this game. They were an NBA-best 29-12 on the road in the regular season, although they're just 2-3 away from Staples Center in the playoffs. Two of those losses to Houston were inexcusable as a lack of focus was the difference there. The third loss came at Utah by just a bucket and you can bet that there will be no lack of focus tonight. If Denver can win in Los Angeles, Los Angeles can win in Denver as this series is at close as it can get. There has not been much talk about the Denver injuries. The Nuggets are banged up, Carmelo Anthony's tender ankle, J.R. Smith's strained calf and Kenyon Martin's broken ring finger testament to the rough-and-tumble nature of this tight matchup. None of these injuries will leave these guys out of the game but they could definitely play a role late. The Lakers are not underdogs often on the road but when they are, they take it pretty serious and almost as a slap in the face. In eight games this season as road underdogs, the Lakers are 7-1 ATS, winning six of those games outright. In the situation of bouncing back, they are not many teams that are better as Los Angeles has won 17 of its 21 games following a defeat last time out. Don

**8** NBA STAR ATTRACTION *58.4% ATS RUN* The knee jerk reaction by many here will be to jump on the home team based on the simple fact that the Cavaliers lost Game One and that was only their third loss at home on the entire season. There is no way Cleveland loses two in a row to begin this series. Well, I for one am not buying into that and I do in fact believe that the Magic have a legitimate shot of winning another one here. I mentioned in the writeup of that first game that the line was completely off and that we would not see a number that high again in this series. However, with Cleveland dropping that opener, the linesmakers were forced to put another big number on the Cavaliers not because they wanted to but because they had to. This is another revenge game for Cleveland but that revenge is hard to put into place when the matchups are favoring one side. Cleveland thrives on its defense but that defense finds itself in a tough spot as it will be stretched out against Orlando. The Magic are one of the most prolific three-point shooting teams in the league as they broke the team record for most three-pointers made (817) in a season. They have six players in their rotation dangerous from long range and had nine players on their roster that took more three-pointers than free throws. When those shots fall, they cannot be beat. The Magic went 9-20 in Game One (45 percent) from behind the arc and overall they shot 55.1 percent from the floor. In the four meetings this season, Orlando is shooting 49.8 percent and that is no fluke. Cleveland just does not match up well plain and simple. This is now a double revenge spot for the Cavaliers but they fall into a situation that does not bode well. Play against home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are playing with double revenge and playing just their fifth game or fewer in 14 days. This situation is 37-13 ATS (74 percent) over the last five seasons with the average point differential being just -0.8 ppg. 8* Orlando Magic

**8** NBA STAR ATTRACTION *58.1% ATS RUN* The Lakers were able to sneak one out in Game One of this series despite getting outplayed for the majority of the game. They were basically outshot, outhustled and outplayed yet Kobe Bryant found the magic to pull out a big win. Even though the Nuggets lost, they showed that they match up very well with Los Angeles and they are certainly not going to be backing down any time soon. The Nuggets are behind for the first time in the postseason, but not lacking confidence after holding the lead for most of Game One. Poor free-throw shooting was the difference as Denver went 23-35 (65.7 percent) from the stripe. The steal near the end of the game sealed it but was hardly the main cause for the setback. If Denver plays the way it did in the first game it will win the majority of the time. All three of the Nuggets playoff losses have been by two points while their eight wins have been by 19.3 ppg. One thing that keeps getting brought up is historical trends that really do not pertain to this series at all. The Lakers victory in Game One made it 11 straight playoff wins over Denver, which is the fourth longest streak in NBA history. Big deal as it means nothing here. Also, Phil Jackson coached teams that won Game One have a 42-0 series record. Who cares? Look what happened to the Celtics who were 32-0 when leading a playoff series three games to two. They are now 32-1 in such situations. The point here is that while all of the history is on the Lakers side, it means little in this series and ever more so in Game Two. Denver falls into a great situation here following that Game One loss. Play against favorites after a win by six points or less going up against an opponent after scoring 100 points or more four straight games. This situation is 52-20 ATS (72.2 percent) over the last five seasons. We also have a great scenario based on just the Conference Finals. Home teams that won Game One of the Conference Finals are only 11-20-3 ATS in Game Two. The road team is 11-4-2 ATS when coming off a straight up and/or ATS loss so it shows when we have teams of this caliber playing in these big games, the underdog tends to step it up when called upon. 8* Denver Nuggets

*10* EASTERN CONF. 3RD ROUND GOY *75% RUN* Cleveland has made history by winning its first eight postseason games by double-digits as it is rolling throughout the playoffs. That is the main reason this line is as big as it is and it by no means should be this high. My guess is that we are not going to see a line this big during the remainder of the series so we will hit this one hard in the opening game. The Cavaliers have been waiting patiently since sweeping the Hawks and have been off for nine days which matched the time off between the first and second round series as well. The layoff did not affect the outcome of Game One against the Hawks as Cleveland rolled to a 27-point win but it was a close game in the first half as the Cavaliers led by just four points at halftime. The Hawks are no where near as good as the Magic yet Orlando is getting just three points less than what Atlanta received in that series opener. For starters, Orlando matches up extremely well with Cleveland and that was proven during the regular season when it won the season series against the Cavaliers two games to one. The lone loss came in Cleveland but that was by only four points in a game that could have gone either way. In the last series, the Cavaliers had nine days off as well. Then, the rest was arguably more important than the rust but this time around, the opposite takes precedence. Cleveland did not need the rest as it was playing excellent and this time off is a big momentum killer. Consider the fact that the Cavaliers have played only eight games in the last 35 days. That is not enough to keep a team sharp and we are going to see come continuity issues on the floor tonight. Orlando meanwhile is coming off a tough series against the Celtics but it has had three days off, which is just enough time to catch a nice break but at the same time, not big enough to take away the winning momentum from that series win. In their most recent matchup April 3rd, the Magic crushed the Cavaliers, 116-87. Sure, that makes this a revenge game for Cleveland but that revenge is hard to put into place when the matchups are favoring one side. Cleveland thrives on its defense but that defense finds itself in a tough spot as it will be stretched out against Orlando. The Magic are one of the most prolific three-point shooting teams in the league as they broke the team record for most three-pointers made (817) in a season. They have six players in their rotation dangerous from long range and had nine players on their roster that took more three-pointers than free throws. When those shots fall, they cannot be beat. It also opens things up inside for Dwight Howard who can have success once again. Plus his defense down low is big as he held Cleveland

**7** WESTERN CONFERENCE GOW **26-12 RUN** The Lakers are coming off a tough seven-game series win over the Rockets but I believe that made them better for this opening game of the Western Conference Finals. Los Angeles will be out to make a statement and not get into a similar situation of playing a series that puts it in a position like it was in against the Rockets. There is always the argument of rest versus rust and this is where Denver falls. Rest this time of season is very important but having six days off could be a detriment here. The main reason is that the Nuggets are on the road. We saw Cleveland in the Eastern Conference Semifinals have no problem with nine days off against Atlanta but that game was at home and that home floor edge can often make up for any issues of rusty shooting of a falloff of continuity. On top of that, the Lakers have some incredible line value. The four home games against the Rockets saw the line go up each game from -8.5 to -10 to -12 to -13. Add to that, they were favored by -8.5 points in each of the two regular season games against Denver. As for the Nuggets, they have covered 10 straight games and that is probably the main reason the majority of the public is lining up behind them here. It is hard to come up with a number in this situation that will attract equal action on both sides and surprisingly, the majority of square action has come in on Denver. Going 10-0 ATS is certainly impressive but it means little now, especially with a big layoff the Nuggets have had. The key player is someone you would not expect as the Lakers are a different team depending which Andrew Bynum shows up. The Lakers margin of victory during the regular season was 1.8 ppg more with Bynum in the line-up. While that figure doesn

**9** NBA STAR ATTRACTION *58.6% ATS RUN* By now everyone has probably heard the Game Seven success that the Celtics have has in their past history. The Celtics beat Atlanta and Cleveland at home in Game Seven of the first two rounds last year. They did it again against the Bulls this year, a series in which four games reached overtime. Overall, they are 17-3 in seventh games at home. While history means little to the actual teams taking the court today, it may mean more than you think. The aura of the Boston success can play a big role in the way the opposition comes out to play. Orlando is downplaying it but it is definitely there. There is also the historical record of the Celtics after leading a series 3-2, they are 32-0 all-time. Again that means nothing to the teams on the floor tonight but both just knowing that history gives the edge to Boston as far as a psychological standpoint goes. One area of technical concern is the play of Ray Allen, who, that one big shot in Game Five aside, has had a very subpar series as he's had shooting nights of 2-12, 3-13, 3-11, and 2-11. He is due for a breakout and this could be the game. Just imagine if he was playing only average in this series and where it would stand right now. The Celtics would likely be resting and waiting for Game One against Cleveland tomorrow night. The fact that Allen has played so poorly shows a lot about the makeup of the rest of the team. It is a pretty simple plan for the Celtics but now it just needs to be executed. The Celtics have done a reasonable job of getting back on defense, but they

**8** EASTERN CONFERENCE GOW **26-11 RUN** Once again we have a situation where a team is in a must win spot and because of that, the line is inflated. Orlando was favored by five points in the previous two meetings at home and now that line has jumped a bucket only because it is an elimination game. Based on the last two games of this series, there is a very good likelihood we will see yet another closely contested game as these teams are figuring each other out. Orlando is in a situation where there have been internal squabbles and this is certainly not the spot or the time for this to be taking place. Dwight Howard called out his coach after the last game and even though word is that everything has been straightened out, I highly doubt everything is peachy between Howard and head coach Stan Van Gundy. There was a great article in USA Today by the Game On guys and they brought up some great points. Howard was upset because he shot the ball only 10 times and blamed that on the Orlando Game Five loss. However, upon further review, the Magic were 16-7 when Howard shot 10 field goals or fewer, for a .696 winning percentage that's close to their .720 overall mark. The bottom line is that Orlando doesn't win big when Howard fires away as he averaged 12.5 shots in Magic victories and 12.2 in losses. Shoot away Dwight, shoot away. Take away his dunks and he is a very average post player. Momentum from Game Four did not help as the Celtics came out pretty flat in Game Five but the rally from 14 points down with less than nine minutes remaining will be a better confidence builder going forward into Game six. The Celtics hope to ride that momentum to a clinching victory tonight in Orlando, where they likely will encounter a desperate Magic squad after absorbing back-to-back gut-wrenching losses. Desperate does not always mean more focused or more energetic and it can often pose an opposite effect of what the mission at hand is. Since last season, the Celtics have posted a 2-3 record in Game Six contests, going 2-2 in last season. Both Game Six setbacks came on the road however both were close at Atlanta, 103-100 and at Cleveland, 74-69. This season, the Celtics suffered a disappointing Game Six loss to the Bulls in triple overtime by just one point. The loss to Chicago was tough to take since the series went to a Game Seven which meant hardly any rest. The goal is to win this game and get two extra days before playing Cleveland. After the win on Tuesday, Boston is 17-4 ATS this season following a win by six points or fewer. The Celtics are also 16-5 ATS as underdogs between 3.5 and 9.5 points over the last two years and they are an even better 21-5 ATS when getting between 6.5 and 12 points over the last three years. In case you were wondering, this is the biggest line the Celtics have gotten all season and not for any good reason other than it is a must win for the Magic. 8* Boston Celtics

**8** NBA STAR ATTRACTION *59.4% ATS RUN* While Dallas is still unlikely to win this series, it showed by winning on Monday night that it is not backing down and brings some momentum into this second straight must-win game. The intensity that was on display from the Mavericks was something we had not seen in this series and I expect that to continue in Game Five. I also believe the most important aspect of this game is that there is absolutely no pressure on the Mavericks. No one thinks they will win this game so playing like the pressure is on the other side is what needs to be done. A win here send Game Six back to Dallas and that could setup a Game Seven back in Denver where anything can happen in those final contests. It is unlikely yes, but more likely than it was two days ago. There was a lot of heart on display Monday from Dirk Nowitzki and it will be up to him to carry his team once again. Nowitzki, plagued by well-documented personal issues all week, scored 44 points, including 19 in the fourth quarter. He wasn't ready to go home. Neither was Josh Howard, who scored 21 points and grabbed 11 rebounds on two bad ankles. Winning in Denver is not easy so the line is big for a reason although it is bigger than it should be which I will tough upon down further. The Nuggets have won 15 straight games at home and they have blown through the opposition in five playoff games by an average of 15.8 ppg. Winning outright will be tough but covering will not be as big of a challenge. Depending on the line being used, Denver is possibly 9-0 ATS this postseason and that is a record that is largely in our favor. The reason being is that is puts the public squarely on the streak and creates line value in the process as there is some serious line value in this number. The first two games in Denver saw the Nuggets favored by -6.5 and -7 and tonight, it is up to -9 in some places with the majority sitting at -8.5. The feeling by the linesmakers is that the Nuggets are going to close this series out so they are upping this number to try and even out the action a little more but it does not seem to be working thus far. As of Wednesday morning according to offshore accounts, 70 percent of the over 15,000 wagers are on the Nuggets. Dallas also falls into a solid situation. Play against home favorites after scoring 105 points or more in five straight games going up against an opponent after a combined score of 205 points or more. This situation is 38-15 ATS (71.7 percent) since 1996 with the average point differential being just -4.9 ppg. 8* Dallas Mavericks

*10* EASTERN CONF. 2ND ROUND GOY *59% RUN* Boston won in dramatic fashion on Sunday night with a buzzer beater to even the series up and shift the homecourt advantage back to the Celtics. It has not been a consistent series as each team has lost once on its home floor and no team has won two straight games. That will change tonight as that victory for the Celtics was absolutely enormous as instead of being down 3-1, they are tied at 2-2 and the momentum rides back into Boston with them. Boston not only won the game but uncovered a way to hold down Orlando that will help in these upcoming games. The key was defending on the perimeter and limiting the penetration of the Magic's ball handlers. That enabled the Celtics to stay in command for most of the contest, despite getting little production from their bench and another rough shooting night from Ray Allen. Now heading home, that defensive effort should be even more prevalent. The Magic committed only eight turnovers Sunday after having 17 in Game Three. The Celtics had only three steals in Game Four, eight fewer than in Game Three. But the Celtics mostly followed their orders to play straight-up, fundamental defense without gambling. It took an improved effort on the defensive end for the Celtics to overcome their outside shooting deficiencies, finishing 1-10 from long range. Allen is 3-24 on three-pointers in this series but we all saw what he is capable of in that Bulls series so it is only a matter of time before he becomes involved once again. Tying the series in Orlando was huge but the way it happened was even bigger. If Boston had won Game Three and dropped Game Four, the Magic would be the team with the momentum heading into Game Five but instead, it is reversed and that really cannot be overstated. Orlando was a team that was bringing in the money at a feverish pace but that has not been the case recently. Orlando is 5-11 ATS in its last 16 games including a 2-6 ATS mark on the road. Boston has not been much better but it has been profitable in certain spots and this is one of those as it is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 home games against teams with a winning road record and 6-2 ATS in its last eight home games as a favorite of fewer than five points. Orlando is just 4-13 ATS in the last 17 meetings in this series in Boston. I talked about momentum and the Magic have not fared well following these tough losses as they are 8-26 ATS in their last 34 games following a home loss of three points or fewer. Boston meanwhile is 16-4 ATS this season following a victory by six points or fewer. 10* Boston Celtics

**7** WESTERN CONFERENCE GOW **26-10 RUN** Dallas had its season taken away in Game Three by the officials with a no call foul that possibly could have changed the outcome of the game. Instead, no foul was called, Carmelo Anthony drained a three-pointer for the victory and basically ended any hope of a Mavericks series win. No team has ever come back from a 3-0 series disadvantage but Dallas remains upbeat and confident a will be heading back to Denver on Wednesday for another elimination game. Pride is on the line tonight and the Mavericks will try to avoid two things. First, they are 0-7 against the Nuggets this season and will be looking to avoid the season sweep. Second, they will be looking to avoid a playoff series sweep for the first time in franchise history. The Mavericks talked Sunday about making sure the Nuggets don

**8** EASTERN CONFERENCE GOM *71% ATS RUN* Cleveland is rolling along right now with wins in six straight playoff games, going 6-0 ATS as well, while winning 10 straight against the number going back to the regular season. I expected this line to be in the range of Cleveland -4 or -5, similar to the line it was giving to Detroit in the first road game in the first round. The big reason for the inflated line is the expected absence of Joe Johnson for the Hawks. He has not done much in this series in the first two games but with him now out, I see the rest of the Hawks stepping up and this is a very similar scenario we saw when the Magic defeated the Sixers with the suspended Dwight Howard on the bench for Orlando. I am certainly not comparing Cleveland to the Sixers but it is one of those situations that we see quite often when a team steps up for a fallen player in his first game out. The good news for the Hawks on the injury from is that both Al Horford and Marvin Williams have been upgraded to probable for this game. Both players missed Game Two and were both non-factors in Game One. While Atlanta deals with the likely loss of Johnson, Cleveland has some injury issues of its own, as Delonte West is listed as questionable with an eye injury suffered in Game Two. He very well could play but it remains to be seen how effective he will be. This is obviously a must win spot for Atlanta and it knows that it can win this game. The Hawks defeated Cleveland at home back on December 13th, which snapped the Cavaliers 11-game winning streak. It should be noted that Johnson did not have a great game, scoring 17 points in 31 minutes of action. Atlanta was a home underdog then, one of six games it was getting points at home this season. The Hawks went 5-1 ATS in those games, winning three outright and this is easily the biggest number it has seen at Philips Arena as all of the other lines were four points or fewer. Despite the big number, the public is backing the Cavaliers once again and that is fine by us. The home teams has covered five of the last six in this series and Atlanta is a solid 15-6 ATS in its last 21 games as an underdog between five and 10.5 points. Don

**9** NBA STAR ATTRACTION **5-1 ATS RUN** The betting public is all over the Lakers and why wouldn

**10** WESTERN CONF. 2ND ROUND GOY *59% RUN* While the long layoff did not bother the Cavaliers last night, it certainly had bad effects on the Lakers in the opening game of this series. Los Angeles was embarrassed on its home floor and now finds itself in a must win spot. The Rockets came in with extreme confidence and they were able to control the inside as well as looking for more quick and polished up top. The Lakers countered with lackluster interior defense from big men Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum and poor shooting from leading scorer Kobe Bryant. The whole team shot poorly at the beginning of the game and things could have been a lot worse. The Lakers started by shooting only 5-19 (26.3 percent) en route to a 21-18 deficit by the end of the first quarter. They shot only 39.5 percent (17-43) in the first half, and trailed by only 43-40. Bryant missed eight of his first 12 shots before finding his touch in the second half. He finished with 32 points on 14-for-31 shooting. The Lakers were favored by eight and a half points in that first game and this number is higher as the linesmakers has made an adjustment for the

**7** NBA SUPREME ANNIHILATOR *59% TP RUN* I think the best thing that could have happened to the Cavaliers was the Lakers losing last night. The top seed in the Western Conference goes down and Cleveland will be more focused because of that as it certainly does not want the same thing to happen to it. The Cavaliers have been off for eight days and that is a lot there is no doubt about it. While rust is a concern, I am seeing as more of an advantage as the time off means fresher legs and this time of season, that is extremely important. We saw it last with the Magic who played a Boston team with just a day of rest and even though the Celtics made a huge run late, the early run by Orlando was due to more energy. I see the same thing tonight for the Hawks who have just a day of rest between the final game against Miami and this one. The Hawks/Heat series was horrible and Atlanta was not very good in the series win. The winning margins were all by double-digits but the three losses were by 26, 29 and 15 points. Good teams do not lose games like that. A benefit of the doubt can be given for one loss like that but not three. Cleveland won the season series three games to one even though Atlanta did won the cover battle three games to one. The Cavaliers will not be backing down at all here and they have been simply rolling along with a 9-1 record over their last 10 games with that only loss coming against the Sixers in the season finale when the starters sat. The line may seem big for a second round playoff game but Cleveland is 14-7 ATS when favored by 11 or more points and it is 5-1 ATS in the six games that it has extended rest of three or more days. The Hawks have been dogs only once at this number when they were getting 12 points in Cleveland and lost by 14 points. Also, the Cavaliers are 7-0 ATS after a road win by 10 or more points this season and 7-0 ATS following four straight double-digit wins. Cleveland takes game one going away. 7* Cleveland Cavaliers

**7** NBA STAR ATTRACTION **59% TOP RUN** I just don

**7** EASTERN CONFERENCE GOW **26-9 RUN** This one will be kept short due to the time constraints of this early start. This has been the worst series in the NBA playoffs as not any of the first six games has been close as each one has been decided by double-digits. So what makes this one special? I do not play the

**7** NBA STAR ATTRACTION **59% TOP RUN** With the way this series has played out thus far, the public is riding the Bulls tonight as they are thinking we can expect yet another close game. This series has been arguably one of the best playoff series

**7** NBA DARK HORSE DANDY **59% TOP RUN** The Celtics clearly are not the Celtics of last season. Or are they? They were in the exact same spot a season ago when they led the Hawks three games to two and went to Atlanta and lost game six before heading home and thumping the Hawks to take the series. The only difference in this series is that each team has won one game on the opponent

**7** NBA STAR ATTRACTION (NO/DEN) **59%** Denver is coming off a match of the biggest playoff victory in the history of the NBA. This could be looked at in two ways. New Orleans can completely fold after that game and give the series to the Nuggets. Or it can takes some pride in itself and come out strong while Denver could be playing with some overconfidence. My first thought was that it might be more of the latter as the Nuggets will be overconfident and may be looking to just slide by in this game to take the series. As bad as the Hornets played, those players want to play for pride if nothing else. That lopsided victory prompted the linesmakers to bump this line up four points from the previous two games that were played in Denver. I was not expecting double-digits in this game so we get incredible line value and we see that the public does not care and is lining up on the Nuggets side. The Nuggets have mostly dominated the series, and they lead all Western Conference playoff teams in scoring and shooting percentage. The Hornets trail the field in both categories but both of those are skewed by that last game. New Orleans is coming into this game loose and knowing the pressure is on the Nuggets. Hornets forward David West said the pressure is on the Nuggets to close out the series tonight. If Denver wins, it will be the first time since the 1993-94 season the team has advanced past the first round.

**10** EASTERN CONF. 1ST ROUND GOY *100%* This has been an underdog series with the team getting points going 3-0-1 ATS but that all changes after tonight. Boston is back home with a chance to regain its swagger and avoid a possible elimination in Chicago on Thursday. This is eerily similar to last season as Boston was tied 2-2 in its series with Atlanta, Cleveland and Detroit. The Celtics went on to win each of those Game Fives on their way to the NBA Championship. Hats go off to Chicago to be where it is right now but I think it is more lucky that good to be tied in this series. The Bulls' two victories required extra effort as they won the opener 105-103 in overtime and Game Four in two overtimes on Sunday, 121-118. Ben Gordon's three-point shot with 4.5 seconds left sent that game into a second overtime, a gutty performance after he had strained his left hamstring in the second quarter. If shots go the other way in the latter stages of those two games, the Celtics very could be sitting home right now after a 4-0 series sweep. Boston is not the same team as last year, we all know that, but we could see its most inspired effort of the playoffs come tonight following that

**7** WESTERN CONFERENCE GOW **25-9 RUN** Denver let a golden opportunity get away to take a commanding 3-0 lead in this series. The Nuggets blew an early 18-point lead and then went down by 11 points late in the game before coming back and almost pulling it out. Even though it is up just 2-1, Denver has dominated as a whole, winning 10 of the 12 quarters played and it has a scoring differential of +14 ppg through the first three games. The Hornets were able to hold on their home floor in the first meeting in New Orleans but I don

Writeups truncated today. We saw Boston rebound from an early series split and roll last night and I expect the same from Orlando tonight. The Magic put up a dud in game one but bounced back to even up the series and they will get home court back after tonight. The Magic were 27-14 on the road this season, tied with Cleveland and Boston for tops in the Eastern Conference so winning away from home is certainly not a problem. Orlando falls into a great contrarian situation. Play on road teams after having lost four or five of their last six games and are winning 60 and 75 percent or more of their games on the season. This situation is 66-35 ATS (65.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 7* Orlando Magic

The home team has not been as dominant as expected in the first round of the playoffs as the hosts are just 11-7 which is weak considering all of the home teams in these first round series

**8** NBA SUPREME ANNIHILATOR *17-10 RUN* Orlando is the fourth team that lost its first game of its playoff series at home. The other three teams all took care of business in game two and I see the Magic doing the same thing here. San Antonio was the only team of those first three that covered the second game and Orlando will even that record up after tonight. Orlando blew a golden opportunity as it led by as many as 18 points before blowing the game in the fourth quarter and letting the Sixers gain home court advantage. Going down 2-0 would likely end the series for Orlando and as we have already seen, these teams that started out with that homecourt advantage have come out with a greater sense of urgency in game two. Dating to 1947, there have been 378 seven-game series played in the NBA and only three teams have lost their first two playoff games at home and ended up winning the series. In fact, Dwight Howard is so certain of victory, he issued a veiled guarantee. After being told how rare it is for teams to fall behind 2-0 at home and still win a series, he declared,

**9** #1 RATED 1ST ROUND REPORT *17-9 RUN* Portland was absolutely embarrassed on Saturday as it was trounced at home by 27 points so we can expect a huge bounce back effort tonight. I was on the Blazers in game one and the contest was over early as the Rockets shot 58.5 percent from the floor but we will not see anything close to that here. The home crowd will be rocking once again and this time the home team will come through. Portland finished the regular season 34-7 at home which was the second best home record in the Western Conference behind the Lakers. One of those victories came against the Rockets by two points in overtime but that game was way back in early November and the Blazers are a much better team since then. Their scoring differential was +10.4 ppg at home and some will say this margin is skewed because of early season wins by 48, 38 and 32 points but at the same time, there were some close wins that brought that average down. Of their last six home wins, five were by 20 or more points and three of those were against teams with a winning record. Portland went 2-11 on the road against Western Conference playoff teams but went 10-3 at home, winning those 10 games by an average of 13.3 ppg. The first game was a situation where nothing went right for the Blazers while everything went in favor of Houston. During the regular season, Houston went 10-4 at home against Western Conference playoff teams but 4-9 on the road against those teams so it is in the same situation as the Blazers when it comes to home and road matchups. We only have a half-point differential in this line from the first game so we do not lose a lot of the value that normally comes when the lines are set following a loss. The Blazers fall into a great bounce back situation as well. Play on home teams that are coming off a loss by 10 points or more as a favorite and playing with two days rest. This situation is 54-14 ATS (79.4 percent) over the last five seasons with the average point differential being +10.1 ppg. We saw both the Spurs and Celtics win last night after suffering game one losses (even though the Celtics did not cover) and we will see it again tonight. 9* Portland Trailblazers

**7** NBA SUPREME ANNIHILATOR **17-8 RUN** There is already talk about how the Celtics are finished. Yes, game one was a major blow to the defending champs but if a team is going to bounce back, this is the one. Boston was a force at home this season and losing back-to-back games just isn

Fargo's **7** EASTERN CONFERENCE GOW **24-8 RUN** The Hawks are playing for some respect. In the final weeks of the regular season, all the talk in the Eastern conference was how teams were jockeying for that 5th spot so it could avoid a first round matchup with Cleveland, Boston or Orlando. You think Atlanta was aware of any of this talk? Of course it was and because of that, it will be out to prove something here. The Hawks won three of the four meetings at home against Miami this season including both games played in Atlanta. Those two victories in Atlanta were close games but that final meeting, which was played on the second to last day of the regular season, was meaningless. The Hawks finished 31-10 at home including 11-3 over the last 14 games. Those three losses came against Orlando, Boston and San Antonio and while Miami is a playoff team as well, it can not be put into that group despite having a superstar in Dwyane Wade. Despite the efforts of Wade, the Hawks have a better team and don

**8** NBA SUPREME ANNIHILATOR **SATURDAY** Whether or not Portland ends up winning this series remains to be seen but Game One definitely goes to the home team here. The Blazers are in the playoffs for the first time since 2002-03 so you know the Rose Garden will be one of the toughest places to go into for the opposition during these first eight games of the playoffs. Portland finished the regular season 34-7 at home which was the second best home record in the Western Conference behind the Lakers. One of those victories came against the Rockets by two points in overtime but that game was way back in early November and the Blazers are a much better team since then. Their scoring differential was +10.4 ppg at home and some will say this margin is skewed because of early season wins by 48, 38 and 32 points but at the same time, there were some close wins that brought that average down. Of their last six home wins, five were by 20 or more points and three of those were against teams with a winning record. Portland went 2-11 on the road against Western Conference playoff teams but went 10-3 at home, winning those 10 games by an average of 13.3 ppg. Portland lacks playoff experience as only two players have been to the postseason before but it really is not a huge matter, especially in this first game where it will be more about passion and energy than anything else. The Blazers have their superstar in Brandon Roy, along with LaMarcus Aldridge, who will play a big part in defending Yao Ming, and the deepest supporting cast in the Western Conference that includes Travis Outlaw and Rudy Fernandez providing major scoring threats off the bench. As for Houston, it was definitely a good season but its play on the road was inconsistent and that final loss in Dallas to close the regular season was devastating as it knocked the Rockets down to 5th in the conference. Houston went 10-4 at home against Western Conference playoff teams but 4-9 on the road against those teams so it is in the same situation as the Blazers. Portland is 10-2 ATS in home games revenging a road loss by 10 points or more this season and it is a perfect 8-0 ATS off a home win by 20 points or more this season. 8* Portland Trailblazers

**7** NBA DARK HORSE DANDY **SATURDAY** Public perception goes a long way in the playoffs and despite laying double-digits, the public is all over the Cavaliers here. This is an enormous line for a playoff game with two rivals squaring off and the underdog out to prove something. Detroit was one of the biggest disappointments in the NBA this season as the trade of Chauncey Billups backfired. The good news is that Allen Iverson is out for the season. Ever since Detroit put together a seven-game winning streak in December and January, it was horrendous with Iverson in the lineup. The Pistons went 7-19 in the 26 games since that streak when Iverson played. They went 12-12 in the 24 games he did not play in which is nothing special but he was constantly in and out of the lineup which caused chemistry problems. They went 5-3 in the final eight games in his absence so they could be heading in the right direction. Detroit went just 7-18 as a road underdog this season but covered 12 of those 25 games showing it was much better as the points grew. As an underdogs overall, the Pistons went 6-13 ATS when getting fewer than six points while going 8-4 ATS in the 12 games they were getting six points or more including a 4-1 ATS mark when getting nine or more points and 1-0 ATS when getting double-digits. That lone ATS win came in Cleveland when they were getting 10 points on March 31st and lost by just six. In less than three weeks, the line has increased by a bucket and the only reason is that it is playoff time which brings out the public squares. We have an extremely low total which points to a low scoring game and the Pistons have been prosperous in this spot, going 13-2 ATS in the 15 games over the last two seasons with a total that is less than 179.5. Cleveland was mashing teams early in the season but covering big numbers has been an issue of late as it is just 1-7 ATS in its last eight games when laying double-digits. The chalk has covered eight of the last nine in this series but none of those games has seen a line this high. This one stays closer than expected. 7* Detroit Pistons

**8** WESTERN CONFERENCE GAME OF THE MONTH This one will be kept short. Both teams come in relatively hot as the Rockets have won five straight games while the Mavericks have won four of five and six of their last eight games. This line is telling us one thing and that is that this game is more important for the Rockets and the fact of the matter is that it isn

**7** EASTERN CONFERENCE GOW **24-7 RUN** The Pistons are not keeping it a secret that they want to move up in the standings to be able to face Orlando, a team it has dominated recently and matches up well against. In order to do that, the Pistons must win their two remaining games while everyone else must lose. Some recent headlines show that Detroit does not care where it is seeded but quite honestly, that could be a ploy to get the opposition to comer out flat. The winner of tonight's game will hold the tiebreaker advantage if the Bulls and Pistons finish with identical records. Detroit and Chicago would have identical division records if the Pistons win tonight and the next criterion used to determine the higher seed is conference record and the Pistons already have that one locked up. Even though jumping up two spots to the 6th seed may not happen, avoiding the 8th seed could be just as important since that means avoiding the Cavaliers in the first round of the playoffs. There is a lot of talk about how the Bulls are hot right now and with four straight victories, they are actually tied with a few teams for the longest current active winning streak. It should come as no surprise however that all four of those Chicago wins came at home where its record is the complete opposite of that on the road. The Bulls are just 12-28 away from home this season and since February 20th, the home team is 23-3 in Chicago games. For the season, the home team is 56-24 which is 2nd only to Utah for the biggest advantage for the home team in overall games. Chicago has lost nine of its last 11 games on the road with the two wins coming against last place division teams Washington and Oklahoma City. Six of those nine losses have come against teams that will not be making the playoffs so it isn

**8** NBA SUPREME ANNIHILATOR **15-4 RUN** There is still a lot on the line for the Sixers. They are a game behind Miami for the 5th spot in the Eastern Conference playoffs. The 5th spot means a first round playoff series with Atlanta as opposed to a series against Orlando. And if the Sixers keep losing, it could mean a series with Boston or Cleveland. This is the last true winnable game for Philadelphia who finishes the regular season with games against the Celtics and Cavaliers so this could be the end of any shot at moving up if it loses here. If the Sixers do lose and Miami wins against the Knicks, the Heat clinch the 5th seed. Philadelphia has dropped four straight games so it is hardly looking like a team that is geared up to make a playoff run. A loss here and it is feasible that the Sixers could enter the postseason on a seven-game losing skid and they need to avoid that plain and simple. The good news here is that the Raptors possess the same losing streak and the only thing they are playing for is getting more minutes to its younger players and possibly playing spoiler. This is the final home game for Toronto and while stepping it up for the fans in the season finale is always a possibility, considering that the Raptors are 17-23 at home this season, stepping up may not even be an option. With more on the line, the Sixers are the team that will be stepping it up. Play against home teams in April games where the line is +3 to -3 after three or more consecutive losses. This situation is 30-10 ATS (75 percent) over the last five seasons with the average point differential being +5.2 ppg. This is a revenge game for the Raptors but it doesn

**10** EASTERN CONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR This will be a big public play in all likelihood but we have to side with Orlando tonight based on hat happened last night and what it has to play for still. Normally this would be a good home underdog spot but the Magic played one of their worst games of the season last night in a home loss against the Knicks. They got away with playing lethargic in the game before that against Memphis but it did not happen here. The players were called out by their coach following the game so this game tonight is about pride and also putting together one final run to boost confidence heading into the playoffs. Orlando is still mathematically alive for the second seed in the Eastern Conference although head coach Stan Van Gundy said that the possibility of that went

**8** NBA SUPREME ANNIHILATOR **14-3 RUN** There is no reason to get off the Utah road fade system. Of all of the Western Conference teams in the top eight eligible for the playoffs, the Jazz have the worst road record of the bunch. After winning a season high four straight road games, Utah has now lost seven of its last nine games away from home, a win in Oklahoma City being the lone exception besides the most recent win against the Hornets. It is coming off a loss at Dallas on Wednesday and while it can be said that the Jazz will be ready for this game against another top quality opponent, it is a little more complicated than that. The Jazz are 1-17 in their last 18 road games against teams with a winning record, covering just four of those 18 contests and currently riding a 1-12 ATS run in those games. The Jazz are also 5-17 as underdogs, covering only eight of those 22 games. Utah has dropped 11 of its last 12 road games against the number when getting points so it is fairly obviously it does not have much going in its favor here. The Spurs, a very popular public betting team, are now being faded by some due the season ending injury to Manu Ginobili. They have dropped two straight home games, including the last contest on Wednesday against Portland and they have also dropped four of their last six to put themselves in danger of letting home-court advantage in the first round slip away after holding the second-best record in the West for most of the season. San Antonio is 26-13 at home on the season and it has been very solid this year following a loss, going 19-8 next time out. We catch a good number at home for the Spurs as it seems like Utah continues to get too much credit on the road. Utah is 0-7 ATS in road games after a combined score of 215 points or more this season. Also, the Jazz are just 1-10 ATS in their last 11 road meetings and they have dropped the last 19 games in San Antonio while never winning at the AT&T Center. This is obviously a huge game for both sides but the edge goes to the home team once again. 8* San Antonio Spurs

**7** WESTERN CONFERENCE GOW **22-7 RUN** Utah is coming off a surprising win at New Orleans on Sunday. Surprising because it finally won a big game on the road but I do not see it happening for a second straight game. Of all of the Western Conference teams in the top eight eligible for the playoffs, the Jazz have the worst road record of the bunch. After winning a season high four straight road games, Utah has now lost six of its last eight games away from home, a win in Oklahoma City being the lone exception besides that recent win against the Hornets. While it can be said that the Jazz will be even more fired up, it is a little more complicated than that. The Jazz are 1-16 in their last 17 road games against teams with a winning record, covering just four of those 17 contests and currently riding a 1-11 ATS run in those games. The Jazz are also 5-16 as underdogs, covering only eight of those 21 games. Utah has dropped 10 of its last 11 road games against the number when getting points so it is fairly obviously it does not have much going in its favor here. The Mavericks are attempting to go 16 games over .500 for the first time this season after failing to do so in their three previous chances. A playoff spot is still not guaranteed but a win here will virtually lock it up. While making the playoffs is an almost guarantee, the Mavericks are actually still fighting to get out of the eighth spot in the standings and they are more than capable to do so. The Mavericks' record is only 5.5 games worse than the Denver Nuggets who are currently second in the Western Conference. There is virtually no separation between the seven teams that will make the playoffs that not names the Lakers. Dallas trails Utah by a game and it trails the Hornets by two games and plays them Friday night and in New Orleans on Sunday making these next three games absolutely enormous. For the Mavericks, the return of Josh Howard has elevated the team's play, given them another weapon. They have not played since Sunday meaning he has been able to rest and will be able to make an impact tonight. He has looked very good in the three games he has been back and his last game against the suns was his best yet. His presence is important since Utah can be a very tough rebounding team. Dallas is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 games against teams that are allowing opponents to shoot 46 percent or better and it is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 home games against teams with losing road records. This has been a very home dominated series with the host covering 20 of the last 27 meetings including one push. The home team has won all seven meetings dating back to last season and that record remains intact after tonight. 7* Dallas Mavericks

**7** EASTERN CONFERENCE GOW **22-7 RUN** This game sets up almost identical to the Atlanta game last night and I see the Hawks riding their victory on Tuesday into this one. Atlanta has secured a playoff spot but it is still trying to keep hold of the 4th spot in the Eastern Conference and that all-important home court advantage in the first round series. The Hawks are ahead of Miami by three games after last night

**8** NBA SUPREME ANNIHILATOR **11-3 RUN** This is a great opportunity for the Hawks to get back on track during this recent three-game losing skid. Losing streaks this time of the season are never good when vying for playoff positions but considering the last two losses came against Boston and Orlando and it is feasible to say that the losing skid really isn

**8** NBA SUPREME ANNIHILATOR **10-2 RUN** Some may consider Charlotte to be in a tough spot following that double-overtime loss against Boston on Wednesday but I believe it made the Bobcats even hungrier. They trail the Bulls by a game and a half for the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference and that game against the Celtics would have been enormous. But it wasn

**7** NBA NON-CONFERENCE GOW **21-7 RUN** Normally this would be a long hard look at Indiana but with the situations and timing, the Spurs will be the play here no matter how public it may be. San Antonio obviously has a lot more to play for as it is currently a half-game ahead of the Rockets and a game ahead of the Hornets for first place in the Southwest Division. The Spurs have lost two straight games, the latest one coming at home against Oklahoma City and that defeat actually helps us a great deal here. Not only will San Antonio want to bounce back from that setback but losing to a weak opponent and playing another weak opponent means better focus the second time around. With eight games left with which to gather momentum in the regular season, the Spurs are now forced to press fast-forward on their normal springtime routine. Five of the final eight games are on the road but four of those are against non-playoff contenders and those are the games that need to be won in the clutch and it will have to begin here against a Pacers teams the Spurs have dominated the last two seasons. Indiana has won two straight games and has also won three straight games at home where it is now 22-14 on the season, the exact same record as the Spurs have on the road. That plays right into the hands of a home underdog in most cases but not here. Those last three home wins came against teams from the Eastern Conference and going back, the Pacers have lost three straight home games against teams from the Western Conference. On the season against teams from the opposing conference that have a winning record, the Pacers are 3-5 at home so most of the success have come against the weaker foes as well as within their own conference. This is a revenge game for Indiana who was blasted in San Antonio by 18 points in the first meeting this season but these teams have proven over the past two seasons that they simply do not match up well. The Pacers had Mike Dunleavy for that game but he will not be around for the second matchup. The Spurs have won 12 of their 18 games as a road favorite so it is not uncommon for them to be in this spot and come away with a victory. They are also in a really strong situation that has not lost in three years. Play against home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points in non-conference games that are coming off a close home win by three points or less. This situation is 29-6 ATS (82.9 percent) since 1996 with the average point differential being +11.8 ppg. This is a perfect 7-0 ATS over the last three seasons. The Spurs know they are not playing well and this team knows what it takes to get right in crunch time. It begins tonight. 7* San Antonio Spurs

**8** NBA STAR ATTRACTION **9-2 ATS RUN** Utah is on the road and we all know what that means and if you don

**7** NBA SUPREME ANNIHILATOR **8-1 RUN** This is going to be a very public play which I am not a fan at all of however, there are reasons why I am taking the Lakers. The public would be on the Lakers here no matter the situation so the fact that we get them in a very good spot helps us immensely. They have lost two straight games including a game at Charlotte last night and with this being the final road game of this seven-game trip, Los Angeles is going to be extremely focused in getting a big win on Wednesday. The last win for Los Angeles came at New Jersey on Friday and while that clinched home court throughout the Western Conference playoffs, the Lakers are not going to sit down the rest of the regular season. They are still playing for home court advantage in the NBA Finals should they get far and they now trail Cleveland by three games for that massive advantage. Catching the Cavaliers will be tough now but Los Angeles can only take care of its own business and get back to winning. After this five of the final seven games are at home with one of those road games being in Sacramento so winning out is a real possibility. The Bucks are back home following a huge win in New Jersey as they destroyed the Nets by 29 points. Milwaukee broke open a close game by going on an 18-0 run and it never looked back. That was a double revenge game for the Bucks who lost their first meeting in New Jersey by 14 points and then lost at home by four points in their first game in March. The revenge was also shown by Richard Jefferson who was more than focused to beat his former team and he played like it. Now even though this is the Lakers coming to town, a letdown is expected. Milwaukee was 4-14 in its previous 18 games prior to the New Jersey win and it has not won back-to-back games since early February. The Bucks are 0-5 in their last five games following a victory, losing those by an average of 13.4 ppg. Los Angeles has not lost three straight games all season. They have lost two straight on three different occasions and came back in that third game and won all three by margins of 9, 17 and 10 points. Losing to Charlotte was definitely a surprise as the Lakers have been solid following any type of loss this season as they are 11-4 following a loss of any kind. Playing with no rest is not a liability as Los Angeles has been one of the better teams in the league in the second of a back-to-back set, going 13-4 straight up and 12-5 against the number. Playing the second game on the road following another road game shows a record of 7-2 straight up and 8-1 against the number. Milwaukee is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 games against teams averaging 99 or more ppg. The Lakers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a road favorite between five and 10.5 points. 7* Los Angeles Lakers

**8** EASTERN CONFERENCE GOM **85.7% RUN** The Nets are coming off their worst home loss of the season against Milwaukee and this is precisely the time to jump on them. They have dropped six straight games and following that game against the Bucks, almost everyone quoted on the New Jersey side used some form of the word

**7** EASTERN CONFERENCE GOW **20-7 RUN** I was on the Hawks on Sunday and they were able to take out the Lakers at home as underdogs but now things are totally different. The Hawks have been on a very solid run as they have won nine of their last 12 games (and have clinched a playoff spot. They are currently sitting in fourth place in the Eastern Conference, ahead of Miami by four games following Miami

**10** NBA DIVISION GAME OF THE YEAR *7-0* This is one of those classic NBA lines that makes no sense yet the public is still backing the wrong side. Orlando is favored on the road, as it is in a majority of its games, but this is a spot where it should not be favored. The Magic have the better overall record by 15.5 games but the lines in the NBA are dictated mostly by home and road records since the home floor in the NBA is arguably the biggest advantage in all of professional sports. In this case, Miami actually has a better record at home than Orlando has on the road yet the Heat are getting points at home and I will gladly take them. Orlando is 8-6 in its last 14 road games which is certainly nothing special with six of those wins coming against teams that will mostly likely not be making the playoffs, Charlotte being the lone possibility. The two wins came against Boston, who was missing Kevin Garnett and Rajon Rondo and Philadelphia, who actually outshot Orlando but had 10 fewer three-pointers. The Magic started the season by going 9-1 ATS in road games against teams that currently have winning records but they are just 3-3 ATS in their last six games and that includes the two just mentioned. Included in that loss column for Orlando is a defeat in Miami back in January as the Heat won by six points as 7.5-point underdogs. That was a revenge spot for the Heat and once again, this game sets up the same way and it may mean even more this time around. Orlando defeated Miami by 23 points last month in Orlando and was the second largest loss of the season for Miami. Miami is nothing special as a home underdog, going 5-6 ATS on the season, but just playing at home of late has been a big advantage. The Heat are 9-1 in their last 10 home games and unlike Orlando

**10** NBA DIVISION GAME OF THE YEAR *5-0* Phoenix had a solid run going with six straight wins before it ran into Portland on Thursday and was blown out by 20 points and then an overtime loss last night against Utah. And it came as no surprise. Let

**7** NBA AFTERNOON ATS BLOWOUT *5-0 RUN* The Lakers clinched home court advantage throughout the Western Conference playoffs with their win on Friday over the Nets and I hate to bring in letdown, but it is more than possible here. Los Angeles is still vying for home court for the NBA Finals as well should it get there so it isn

**8** NBA SUPREME ANNIHILATOR **4-0 RUN** Charlotte had a huge win last night in Philadelphia and while some might say a

**7** EASTERN CONFERENCE GOW **19-7 RUN** The NBA is about situations and games that mean more for one team than the other. That is the case tonight. Charlotte is three games back of the eighth spot in the Eastern Conference playoff race and this game is huge. The Bobcats have dropped two straight including a loss in Washington last time out where they blew a 20-point lead. A lot of teams might find it hard to recover from that but Charlotte is coached by Larry Brown and he knows the significance of a bounce back. The Bobcats have a game at home against the Knicks tomorrow and after that it is three in a row against the Lakers Celtics and Heat so this two-game stretch is enormous especially considering that six of the final eight games, including the final four, are all on the road. Charlotte matches up very well in this spot as it has the defense that can slow down the recently potent Sixers offense. Philadelphia has won three straight games and seven of its last nine so it is definitely playing well at the right time. All games are important this time of year but the Sixers are certainly not in the same desperation mode that the Bobcats are in. Philadelphia is tied with Miami for the 5th spot in the standings and that is a big spot considering it will match up with Atlanta as opposed to either Boston or Orlando in the first round of the playoffs. However, there is still a lot of time for these seedings to play out and actually getting involved in the seedings is more important, which Charlotte is aiming for. The Bobcats have won nine of their last 15 games so despite the recent two-game skid, they are playing very well still. Since December 10th, they have gone 24-24 after a 7-16 start and it is no coincidence that the run started with the addition of Raja Bell and Boris Diaw, who came over from Phoenix in the Jason Richardson deal. I see a huge effort tonight from Charlotte as it wants to make up for that Washington debacle.

**8** #1 TNT GAME OF THE MONTH *61% RUN* The Suns remain red hot as they won their sixth straight games last night over Utah but this is where the run comes to an end. You have to play on Phoenix in spots but you also have to play against Phoenix in spots and this is one of those spots. Let

**7** NBA ESPN STAR ATTRACTION *60% RUN* We are due for a classic Boston/Orlando finish as the first three meetings in this season series have been decided by 19, 10 and 7 points which is rather surprising considering how evenly matched there two teams are. I am not making this play hoping for a close game but I am making it thinking the Celtics win it outright. This is a revenge spot for Boston after losing at home to Orlando by seven points 17 days ago. I will start out by saying, as many already know, I do not prefer revenge angles on the road but this one is a little bit different. First off, Boston is 25-12 on the road this season which is a half-game worse than Orlando and tied with Cleveland for the best road record in the Eastern Conference so when there is road revenge going on involving those three teams, we need to make an exception. Also, Boston played shorthanded in that game as Kevin Garnett and Rajon Rondo were out. They are both back and Boston wants to end this season series before a probable second round rematch in the playoffs with a big victory showing Orlando that it is still the superior team when playing at full strength. When the Celtics were near full strength this season, they took 107-88 and 90-80 wins over Orlando. Garnett recently returned to the lineup after missing 13 games because of a strained right knee. Starting guard Ray Allen has also missed some time this month because of injuries. A Boston victory tonight would go a long way toward locking up that second seed, giving the Celtics a two-game lead on the Magic and a 3-1 edge in the season-series. A loss and it remains a fight to the finish as the Magic move even in the standings. Obviously this is a big game for Orlando as well but we need to look at the big picture and that picture is telling us Boston is the superior team in this spot. The Celtics relied heavily on homecourt advantage through last year's championship run, but a third seed would mean they might have to win as the lower seed in three straight series to defend their title. Boston is not an underdog very often but when it is, it has been successful. The Celtics are 5-3 ATS as dogs, winning all five of those games it has covered. This includes a 10-point win in Orlando as 45-point dogs back in January. The Celtics also fall into a solid situation. Play on underdogs who have won over 75 percent of their games on the season after having won five or six of their last seven games, playing a team with a winning record. This situation is 59-23 ATS (72 percent) over the last five seasons including a 15-5 ATS mark (75 percent) this season. Boston gets its revenge tonight. 7* Boston Celtics

**7** NBA TNT STAR ATTRACTION *66-45 RUN* Two weeks ago, Utah was in the midst of a 12-game winning streak but it was also in the middle of a tough five-game roadtrip and sure enough, the Jazz dropped the final three games of that trek and it was really not much of a surprise. Utah has struggled away from home most of the season and even a large winning streak could not break that cycle. That Jazz returned home and easily defeated Washington and then went back out on the road to defeat Oklahoma City on Friday. The best part could be the rest as the Jazz have had three full days off before this game and following a brutal travel schedule, that time off is huge. Utah is a solid 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games following at least three days off. That win over the Wizards was the 12th straight home victory for Utah who is 29-6 at EnergySolutions Arena this year and is now 66-10 at home over the last two seasons. The Jazz are 20-15 ATS in those games which is average but laying big numbers has been the downfall. They are 7-10 ATS when laying eight points or more but a much more solid 12-4 ATS when laying fewer than eight points. They have been a home underdog twice, splitting those games with Boston and San Antonio. One of those ATS losses came against Houston when they were laying 8.5 points and won by seven. That game was only 20 days ago and now Utah is being asked to lay fewer points for no real reason. Houston is playing well right now but this is not a good spot. The Rockets are coming off a huge win in San Antonio on Sunday which was their fourth straight win. They have also won four straight road games including victories over the aforementioned Spurs as well as New Orleans and Denver so that could be part of the reason this line has come down as much as it has from the previous meeting. The last road loss for Houston was that game against Utah and it has now dropped three straight in Salt Lake City. The recent road run has put Houston a game over .500 for the season in away games which shows how much it struggled prior to this current stretch. The Rockets are 20-5 this season following a loss but just 26-20 following a win. They are also 29-7 after an ATS loss but 17-17 after an ATS win and the records against the number in those games are 25-11 ATS and 10-23-1 ATS respectively. This is a revenge game for Houston but it is on the road and you know how I feel about that. Plus, Houston is only 2-10 ATS this season when revenging a loss when the opponent topped 100 points. The home court will once again prove to be too strong for Utah as it inches closer to Denver is the Northwest Division. 7* Utah Jazz

**7** WESTERN CONFERENCE GOW **19-6 RUN** The Nuggets have won five straight games but that really does not tell the whole story. Denver is just 2-3 ATS in those games and the reason is that the five games came against teams with losing records and none of whom will be in the playoffs. Thus, the Nuggets were heavily favored in all of those games including four times by at least 12.5 points so being undefeated over that span is not very surprising. Five of the Nuggets last six games have come at home with the one road game over this stretch coming against lowly Memphis. That game against the Grizzlies resulted in a victory which was a rare road win as the Nuggets had dropped six straight away from home previous to that. And some of those games were against very weak competition so this one will be another difficult task. Phoenix was left for dead after a home loss against Cleveland which was its sixth straight loss but the Suns have come back up for air as they have now won four in a row to remain in the hunt in the Western Conference. The wins were certainly against no top notch competition but it has at least restored confidence in a team that was teetering on disaster. The big thing here is that Phoenix remains at home where it has won three straight games and is 22-13 on the season. The Suns have been one of the biggest disappointments this season but most of the bad results have come in games they should not be winning. Phoenix is just 4-16 as an underdog this year but a more solid 34-15 as a favorite. That certainly bodes well in this series as the home team has dominated, going 8-0 both straight up and against the number in the last eight meetings. The Suns also fall into a very simple yet extremely solid situation. Play on favorites that are coming off two consecutive home wins by 10 points or more going up against an opponent that is coming off a home win scoring 110 or more points. This situation is 32-8 ATS (80 percent) since 1996 including a 17-2 ATS mark (89.5 percent) over the last five seasons. Phoenix is shooting a remarkable 56 percent over its last five games and it is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 games after going five straight games of shooting at least 47 percent from the floor in each. Denver is just 6-18 ATS in its last 24 road games against teams that average at least 103 ppg. It is also 8-20 ATS over the last three seasons against teams that are shooting 48 percent or better from the floor. The home court edge in this series carries on. 7* Phoenix Suns

**8** NBA SUPREME ANNIHILATOR *23-14 RUN* As expected, the Sixers put up a dud against Phoenix the night after defeating the Lakers on a last second three-pointer. I had no interest in grabbing the points against the Suns and also had no interest in putting down seven points on Phoenix despite the probably letdown effect. Philadelphia has how had a day to regroup and we will see a fully focused team tonight. The New Year started slow for Philadelphia with consecutive losses to Dallas and San Antonio but on January 6th, the Sixers started to get things rolling. A seven-game winning streak ensued and since then, they have gone a solid 21-11 to completely turn around what was thought to have been a lost season. The loss of Elton Brand was thought to be devastating at the time but Philadelphia has been more than fine. In the 29 games he played this season, the Sixers went 13-16. In the 37 games he has been absent, they have gone 21-16. It may be coincidental or that other players step up in but either way, this is a team to be on the look out for as there is some great balance and team chemistry working right now. The Sixers are far from out of the woods however as they are currently sitting in the sixth spot in the Eastern Conference but are just five games away from falling into ninth place because of that horrible start that cost head coach Maurice Cheeks his job. They are a game and a half behind Miami for the fifth spot and that is a coveted slot right now as the first round matchup will be Atlanta as opposed to facing either Boston or Orlando is the opening round of the playoffs. Letdowns seem to be common place following games against Los Angeles and tonight, the shoe goes on the other foot. Golden St. is coming off a game last night against the Lakers and even though it lost, it was a close game throughout and the Warriors put in a big effort against their division rivals. The Warriors have been playing better as they have won three of their last four games at home but two of those came against the Clippers and Nets so I am not sold on how strong their home court is currently looking. Philadelphia is 23-9 ATS in its last 32 road games coming off a road loss. When playing on no rest or extended rest of three or more days, the Sixers are 7-18 ATS but everything in-between has been fine, going 23-15-3 ATS when playing on one or two days of rest. 8* Philadelphia 76ers

**7** NBA NON-CONFERENCE GOW **18-6 RUN** People may be looking at Dallas here and seeing the dominance it has had over the Hawks but that is not the right way to look at it. Atlanta has lost 16 of the last 20 to the Mavericks, but those were the old Hawks. These Hawks have a record almost identical to the Mavericks and at home, they have been on fire. Atlanta is 26-7 at home including a 20-13 ATS record and it has reeled off victories in the first six games of this homestand and will be going for the homestand sweep here. Atlanta is 3.5 games ahead of Miami for the 4th spot in the Eastern Conference and with a schedule that features Cleveland, San Antonio, Boston twice, Los Angeles and Orlando in the next two week, these are the games that need to be won. Al Horford is coming off a 23-point, 12-rebound game against Sacramento and that is the fourth time in six games he's had at least a dozen boards. It is important to note that he didn't play in the December game against the Mavericks and Dallas won the battle of points in the paint 48-34. The Mavericks escaped with a two-point win. Dallas was playing really well, going 15-6 through 21 games before losing back-to-back road games against the Lakers and Warriors. It did bounce back with a two-point home win over Detroit but that was after blowing a 17-point lead do it was actually lucky to pick up that win. The road has not been kind of late, as the Mavericks are just 2-7 in their last nine roadies to drop them under .500 away from home with a 16-19 mark. Victories have been contagious for the Hawks as they are 24-15 following a win including an 11-2 ATS record following three or more wins. Dallas is 1-15 ATS after three straight games committing 11 or less turnovers over the last two seasons and it falls into a very negative situation. Play against underdogs that are coming off a home no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite going up against an opponent that is coming off a home win scoring 110 or more points. This situation is 30-9 ATS (76.9 percent) over the last five seasons. 7* Atlanta Hawks

**8** NBA SUPREME ANNIHILATOR *22-12 RUN* I was on Chicago last night but I am going against the Bulls tonight coming off that big win against the Celtics. While a letdown is possible, that is far from the real reason to go against them as there are a number of factors that make the Thunder the play here. I rode the Thunder quite a bit earlier in the year when it seemed as though they could not lose against the number. I backed off and it was good timing as they went on a 4-7 ATS run but they are now killing the books again as they are 7-2-1 ATS over their last 10 games. Overall, they are 41-25-1 ATS which is the third best record against the number in the NBA trailing only Eastern Conference powers Cleveland and Orlando. Oklahoma City has turned into a very solid home team. It has won four in a row at home and going back to the end December, it is a very solid 12-6 in its last 18 home games. Even more impressive could be some of the losses as the Thunder lost at home to Denver by two points, Houston by two points, Denver by a point and New Orleans by two points. Those are almost as good as some of the wins. Oklahoma City is not a favorite very often as it has been this position only eight times but it has won five of those games outright. It is 3-4-1 ATS in those games but that includes a 2-1 ATS mark when favored by fewer than three points. With Chicago

**7** EASTERN CONFERENCE GAME OF THE WEEK The public loves this one. The squares are all over the Celtics here and why shouldn

**10** NBA DIVISION GAME OF THE YEAR *3-0* Both teams enter this game off losses and it sets up a contest with 2nd place in the Southwest Division on the line. The edge goes to the home team in this one for a number of reasons which will be touched upon. First and foremost, New Orleans is home once again following a four-game roadtrip through the Eastern Conference in which it ended up splitting 2-2. The last game was an embarrassing 18-point loss in Chicago so it will be looking to regroup from that outing. The Hornets have won five straight games at home and are 7-1 in their last eight at New Orleans Arena with the only loss coming against Boston. It can be argued that because of that loss New Orleans may not be capable of beating the elite teams but included in this recent home string was a victory over Orlando by 32 points so that argument can be tossed. The Hornets are a respectable 9-14 against the league

Miami is in a tough spot after Saturday

**8** NBA DARK HORSE DANDY ***19-9 RUN*** Going against teams mired in long losing streaks tends to usually give us a lot of line value. Sometimes however you need to shy away from those teams because the mental state of the team is sometimes unknown so you may not know who or what team is going to show up. However, now is the time to jump on because the team is coming off a win but the line is still reflecting that losing streak. Minnesota is coming off a big win against Memphis which snapped a 10-game losing streak as well as a 10-game home winning streak. Because of those pathetic runs, the line is still in our favor and the public will be slow to recover. Minnesota won that game over the Grizzlies by 25 points and wins such as that can really jump start a team by given them some much needed confidence. The Timberwolves have this game, along with another home game against Charlotte before hitting the road to play San Antonio, New Orleans and Houston so these next two games are pretty big to keep any sort of confidence in tact. New York has found its winning ways again as it has won two straight games, both on the road, and the public is more aware of this than it is of the Timberwolves breaking their losing skid. The Knicks have been road favorites only once this season and that game resulted in an outright loss at Oklahoma City. No matter how bad the Timberwolves have been playing, laying points with the Knicks on the road is not an option. Minnesota won the first meeting in New York by 13 points so it does set up a revenge spot for the Knicks. However, that game was way back in December and road revenge on the road is never an angle that should be played in this league, especially with a team that is being asked to win by more than four points and is only 9-22 on the road this season. Play on underdogs that are coming off a home win by 20 points or more going up against an opponent that is coming off a win as a road underdog. This situation is 36-15 ATS (70.6 percent) since 1996. As you can see, in 12 years of data, this has only come up 51 times so it is rare but still hits seven out of ten times. 8* Minnesota Timberwolves

**8** NBA TNT STAR ATTRACTION **15-5 RUN** I have gone against Cleveland numerous times on the road lately and will do so once again. The red hot start for the Cavaliers has led to them being overvalued almost every time out, especially in road games. Cleveland started the season 10-4 on the road but since then, it has gone 12-8 which is definitely solid, but not nearly the same. It is 8-12 ATS in those games and is a proven point to the Cavaliers being overvalued in these recent road games and it is definitely overvalued tonight. Phoenix is having a tougher than normal season and it is in the midst of a season long five-game losing streak. That only adds to our value here. Four of those losses came on the road, all against playoff bound teams while the latest came on Tuesday at home against Dallas who is gaining momentum right now. This recent skid has put the Suns five and a half games out of the Western Conference top eight so a run has to start and what better time than now against one of the best teams in the league while getting a ton of home points. A solid strategy in the NBA is to back these home underdogs whose home record is at least identical or close to the road record of the favorite and that is certainly the case here. Phoenix is 19-12 at home this year so it is only a game and a half worse than the Cavaliers road record. The Suns have been home underdogs only twice this season, winning against the Lakers 11 days ago as dogs of roughly the same number. The loss also came against the Lakers but that was way back on November 20th. Phoenix has not been playing bad during this recent stretch, it has just been on the wrong side of some late game breaks. The last four losses have come by six points or fewer. The Suns defense was torched for 122 points last time out against Dallas and the defense is the liability again but a bounce back effort can be expected. Phoenix is 19-8 ATS in its last 27 games after allowing 120 points or more and Cleveland is 0-6 ATS in the second half of this season when playing against a team that is allowing 46 percent shooting or worse from the floor. There is no denying that Phoenix has struggled against the better teams this season but this number is too good to pass up. Cleveland has covered 75 percent of its games as a home favorite but just 54.2 percent of its games as a road favorite. This game also sets up as a revenge spot as Phoenix was beaten soundly in Cleveland by 17 points just a month ago. The Suns had 22 assists and an amazing 25 turnovers in that game and the main reason for that was that they were without Steve Nash in that contest. This will be a different result in the desert. 8* Phoenix Suns

**8** NBA SUPREME ANNIHILATOR **11-4 RUN** We catch a great number on the Hawks. We all know about the 12-game winning streak for Utah and this is the time to fade. I went against the Jazz on Sunday against Toronto and a bad 4th quarter by the Raptors prevented a victory. Utah came back on Tuesday and won in Indiana which was its fourth straight road win but all four of those victories came against losing teams and this it the first real big test of this roadtrip. The Hawks have won their last two games, both at home, where they are now 22-7 on the season. The last was on Monday against New Orleans to move their record to 11-11 against the Western Conference. One of those 11 losses came in Utah on February 23rd by 19 points so this sets up a big revenge spot as well. The Jazz are only 3-11 this season as road underdogs while Atlanta is 20-5 as a home favorite and with the line being as low as it is, a win likely means the cover. The Jazz have dropped five straight against the number in this role of a road pup while the Hawks are 4-1 ATS in their last five as a home chalk. Utah has owned this series but remember a lot of those games came when Atlanta was horrendous. The favorite has covered 11 of the 13 meetings and the lone dog covers were both by the Hawks. The streak ends tonight. 8* Atlanta Hawks

**7** NBA DARK HORSE DANDY ***17-8 RUN*** This is as contrarian as you can get but that helps with this line as the public is backing the Bucks. Milwaukee is coming off a win over Golden St. following three straight losses while the Knicks have dropped five of their last six games to fall three games out of the Eastern Conference playoff picture. A win here gets them back to within two games while a loss drops them to four games out and with five teams in front, making the playoffs is not likely. If that isn

**8** EASTERN CONFERENCE GOM ***4-1 RUN*** Both Orlando and Detroit are playing very well right now but the nod goes to the Pistons at home based on the situation at hand. The Magic are coming off a huge win at Boston on Sunday and it was a lot tougher than what it looked like might take place. Orlando took a 22-point lead in the third quarter but it had to hold off a ferocious Celtics rally as they cut the lead to three points before Orlando eventually won it at the end. Not only was it a big win but that 4th quarter took a lot out of the Magic and coming out to play another hot team the next night will be a tough task. Orlando is a half-game behind Boston for the best road record in the Eastern Conference while Detroit has been a big disappointment overall and especially at home where it is just 16-15 on the season. That is going to put a lot of the public behind the Magic and that is right where we want them. The Pistons have won four of their last five games and that includes three solid wins over Denver, Boston and Orlando. It is no coincidence that the Pistons have got back to winning when Allen Iverson went down with his back injury. Since Richard Hamilton has been inserted back into the starting lineup, the Pistons are 4-1 and because of this, when Iverson does come back, he will be starting the game on the bench. The team seems to be playing with a lot more confidence now that Iverson and his 41.7 percent shooting are not on the floor. It his lowest shooting percentage in five years and this case is remarkably similar to the one in Houston where the Rockets are much better off without Tracy McGrady around. Even though these two teams have switched places as far as Eastern Conference powers, Detroit still finds a way to take care of Orlando. The Pistons have won both meetings this season and have won six of the last seven games played between these two including a 4-1 series win in last season

**7** NBA NON-CONFERENCE GOW **17-5 RUN** Due to the time of game, this writeup will be kept short. I was on Toronto on Friday and it was a big letdown so what am I doing here? I

**7** NBA SUPREME ANNIHILATOR **11-4 RUN** This is going to be a very popular public play which I do not like to partake in very much but the public doesn

**7** WESTERN CONFERENCE GOW **17-4 RUN** Both Phoenix and Houston enter this game coming off road losses and the edge no doubt favors the Rockets as they are back home where they have been nearly unbeatable of late. Houston has won 10 straight games at home and is 13-1 in its last 14 games at the Toyota Center. If these wins were coming against poor teams then the run would mean little but this streak includes victories over Cleveland, Portland, Dallas, Utah and Denver. Sure there have been the lower tiered teams in the bunch but winning those games by big margins is pretty important as well. The Rockets are two games behind San Antonio in the Southwest Division so keeping pace is essential, especially against a team that is slumping but will definitely not be looked past. The Rockets were a sexy pick to make a run in the second half after the All-Star break and so far they are living up to those predictions. I brought this point up last Thursday when I used the Rockets in that win over the Cavaliers and I think it needs to be brought up again seeing that it is rather important. I think many people doomed Houston once Tracy McGrady went out for the season. I was on the exact opposite on that theory and said so in that first announced game without him against the Nets. He has missed a ton of time this season and in my mind, they are far better off without him. He was banged up numerous times and played through a lot of injuries and that really hurt the chemistry of this team. So how have the Rockets done in his absence? They are 8-2 in this most recent stretch and on the season they are 19-8 in games he has missed. Considering Houston was 20-15 in games he had played, you can make the decision on if it is better off or not. He was mired in the worst shooting season of his career and all him numbers were down so getting him healthy and ready for next year was the right way to go. The Sun may be setting in Phoenix, pun intended. The Suns have dropped the first two games of this current roadtrip five of their last six road games, the lone exception being a victory against the Clippers which is meaningless in my opinion. Phoenix is now sitting in 9th place in the Western Conference, trailing Dallas by two and a half games for the final playoff spot. That may not seem like a big deficit but in fact it is, especially when there are five teams ahead of it all within two games of each other. On the season, the Suns are 15-16 on the road which may not seem too bad and in fact it really isn

**7** NBA DARK HORSE DANDY *11-2 ATS RUN* Toronto is arguably the biggest disappointment in the NBA this season along with Detroit, Chicago and possibly Golden St. as other nominees. The Raptors were talked about contending, yes contending, with the Celtics in the Eastern Division. That did not exactly pan out as Toronto is currently 25 games behind Boston and playing with absolutely no hope of making the playoffs. With nothing to play for, the question arises as to why we are backing such a team. We often find value in these games and that is definitely the case here on Friday. Miami is clearly the better team here so why is it favored by just a point? It is one of those lines that seem way off and because of that, the public is biting. As of late Friday morning, 79 percent of the action is on the Heat according to certain offshore reports. As for Toronto, it has lost three straight games but all of those came on the road and all came against Western Conference playoff contenders. Toronto has won three of its last four home games which is a minor accomplishment as home has not been a big advantage for the Raptors this season as they are just 12-16 at the Air Canada Centre. Toronto has a winning record against only one division this season and that is the Southwest where it is a modest 7-4 which includes two wins over Miami. Another reason that the Raptors are a good play here is that this is the first meeting between these two teams since the trade that brought Shawn Marion in and sent Jermaine O

**7** NBA STAR ATTRACTION **10-2 ATS RUN** Denver is back in the friendly confines of the Pepsi Center following a two-game trip where it went 0-2 losing to Indiana and Detroit. The Nuggets have now dropped five of their last seven games and the lead in the Northwest Division has shrunk to a half-game over Portland and a game over Utah. This is a drop from leads of three and a half games and six games respectively at the All-Star break. Now is the time to bring it and what better time than with back-to-back games against the two teams right on their tail. The Nuggets also get Carmelo Anthony back for this game who missed the Pistons game because of a one-game suspension. Everything has been put behind him and we should see a huge effort from him tonight. These teams have split the season series thus far with both teams winning on their home floor and it is important to note than Anthony was absent for both. Denver is not playing very good right but its two wins during this recent stretch came at home against the Hawks and Lakers. That win over Atlanta came right after a blowout loss to the Celtics by 38 points. The Nuggets have responded well all season following a loss, going 14-7 (12-9 ATS) and going 19-7 (16-9-1 ATS) following a loss against the number. So far this season, Denver is 7-2 within the division and this line should not scare people off as it is 26-7-1 ATS in their last 34 games as a favorite between five and 10.5 points. In what should have been an east victory last night, the Blazers were taken to the final horn by the Pacers and a lot of energy was used on that floor. It was the third straight win for Portland but now it takes to the road where it has lost five of its last six and is just 5-10 in its last 15 road games. The lone win over that span against a good team was at New Orleans where it outrebounded the Hornets 52-32. That will not happen here especially with the thinned out frontcourt. Speaking of thin, the Blazers will be playing in the thin air tonight following a tough game last night and that will be a tough task. The Blazers are 0-2 straight up and against the number this season in the second of back-to-back games when playing at home and then traveling the next night with one of those losses coming to the lowly Warriors in Golden St. While Denver has prospered with this line, Portland is 7-19 ATS in its last 26 games as a road underdog between five and 10.5 points. As a road underdog this season, the Blazers have dropped 13 of 16 games. Denver has really struggled of late from long range as it is hitting just 29.7 percent from behind the arc over its last five games. That should change here as Portland

**7** NBA STAR ATTRACTION **9-1 ATS RUN** Dallas faltered again on the road against a short-handed Oklahoma City team that was without its best player Kevin Durant. It really was no surprise as the Mavericks have played down to the competition on numerous occasions so we should see a big bounce back effort with the Spurs coming into town in this nationally televised game. These two teams met a week ago in San Antonio and the Spurs had no problem with Dallas as they won by 17 points. That sets up a big revenge spot for Dallas and it is actually double revenge as the Spurs also won the last meeting played in Dallas back in December that was decided in overtime. The loss to Oklahoma St. was by double-digits and that should get a spark going once again. This season Dallas has lost a game by 20 or more points on six different occasions and lost by at least 10 points on 12 different occasions. The good thing is that losses don

**7** NBA DARK HORSE DANDY **9-1 ATS RUN** The Cavaliers had a high profile game two night ago at Miami and they have a high profile game two nights from now at Boston and in-between is a relatively letdown game against Milwaukee who they have already defeated three times this season. Cleveland is playing very well with wins in eight of its last nine games but the situation here just does not set up well. Winning all four meetings from the same team in a season is extremely difficult and while the Cavaliers should do it here, nothing is guaranteed and the cover is what we are more interested anyway. This is a huge line and one that makes no sense to me. In their last home game, the Cavaliers were favored by 13-.5 points over Memphis, the same Memphis team that is 15-44 on the season and 12 games worse than Milwaukee. Yet the Bucks are getting only a half-point less. That simply does not fit. The Cavaliers have been extremely strong this season when putting down double-digits but most of that success came early in the season. Since January 9th, Cleveland has been a double-digit favorite only four times in 25 games and even though it is 3-1 ATS, those games came against the aforementioned Grizzlies as well as the Clippers, Kings and Raptors, all of whom are at least 16 games under .500. Milwaukee is playing decent ball right now as it is still sitting in the 8th spot in the Eastern Conference playoff race after going on a 5-5 run. The Bucks do not get double-digits often but they have been solid when they do, going 3-1 ATS and that includes a cover against Cleveland in the first meetings this season. As a matter of fact, Milwaukee is 8-2 ATS this season when receiving at least eight points so it is pretty obvious it has been undervalued in the past and judging by this insane line, it is being undervalued once again. The injury factor is one of the main causes for the Bucks lines to spike as Michael Redd and Andrew Bogut remain on the sidelines. They are 8-8 ATS without Redd, winning seven of those games outright, and 6-6 without Bogut in his recent absence, winning five of those outright. It is nothing spectacular but it is called hanging around and playing well enough to be competitive and that is why this one will be a similar result. Milwaukee falls into a solid yet simple and rather rare power situation. Play on underdogs of 10 or more points after leading in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half. This situation is 47-23 ATS (67.1 percent) since 1996. This occurs on average just over five times per season and the reason is simple. Teams that have the ability to obtain a huge lead are usually not found in the situation of being a large underdog so shortly thereafter. The average point differential in those 70 games was -8.9 ppg. Milwaukee is 12-5-1 in its last 18 road games against teams with a home winning percentage greater than .600. Coming off a home loss last night against New Jersey is not huge for momentum but the Bucks have recovered well of late, going 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a loss and for the season they are 20-12-1 ATS in that situation, winning 19 of those games outright. Milwaukee is 2-1-1 ATS this season in the second of a back-to-back set when that second game is on the road following a home game. Cleveland has been outstanding this season playing with no rest, going 11-3 ATS but it has been much more average with a 16-13 ATS mark with a day between games. The Bucks keep it close once again as their large underdog prowess continues. 7* Milwaukee Bucks

**7** EASTERN CONFERENCE GOW **16-4 RUN** Charlotte has returned home following a west coast roadtrip that started slow but finished strong. The Bobcats lost at Houston and Phoenix but rebounded to win against the Kings, Warriors and Clippers to close out trek. Those last three teams are garbage but wins are wins and it provides a lot of momentum heading into March. While the Bobcats remain the NBA

**8** NBA NON-CONFERENCE GOM ***8-0 RUN*** Philadelphia has had a day off to regroup following its devastating loss on Saturday against Orlando as it blew a 10-point lead heading into the fourth quarter. Instead of a letdown, I see a very focused effort coming from the Sixers tonight in what is a big revenge games from January. Philadelphia lost that first meeting in New Orleans despite outshooting the Hornets 53.7 percent to 45.3 percent. New Orleans was hot from the outside as it went 14-31 from long range while the Sixers went just 2-14 from behind the arc. They felt that game should have went their way and they want it back. As a matter of fact, since New Orleans became a top team in the league starting last season, it has won all three meetings with Philadelphia and none have been close. While that could point to a mismatch favoring the Hornets, it just means line value and more incentive to be displayed from Philadelphia and the matchup is by no means heavily on the Hornets side. New Orleans has been playing very well, winning four straight games since the start of last week but it has a couple things going against it based on this recent schedule. Despite the undefeated mark, the Hornets were unable to cover any of those games, going 0-4 against the number, winning those games by three, one, three and seven points. It has not been easy as last night, they overcame a four-point deficit in the last minute and a half to win and 48 hours before that, they blew a 17-point fourth-quarter lead and rallied to beat the Bucks in the final seconds. Notice that they were favored in all four of those games as they all came against teams with losing records and now the role has switched and that is not a good thing for New Orleans. The Hornets are only 2-13 this season as an underdog including 3-12 ATS in those games so while rare, it has not been a good proposition when getting points. Also, this will be the fifth game in eight nights for the Hornets and this is the second of a back-to-back road set after narrowly escaping New Jersey with a victory. The Hornets are just 5-8 ATS in the second game of back-to-back games including a 2-4 record both straight up and against the number. This also includes a 1-4 record as and underdog including losses in four straight in that situation that have come by an average of 15 ppg. After a 5-7 start to their home schedule, the Sixers are 12-6 in their last 18 home games despite losing the last two contests against Denver and Orlando. The Hornets are 15-13 on the road which is no doubt solid but based on home and road results, this line is off as Philadelphia should be a bigger chalk in this matchup. New Orleans is just 3-5 in its last eight road games and the three teams they have played in that stretch that has winning records all resulted in outright losses. The scheduling situation is much better on the Sixers side even though this is the fifth game in eight nights for them as well. The front end was tough period where travel came into play as the Sixers have been home now for the last three nights. On top of that, the next game is not until Saturday so they will be able to rest all they want to. As mentioned in that first meeting, New Orleans was on fire from long range but it has struggled of late. Over the last three games, the Hornets are a dismal 12-63 (19 percent) and that will not get it done here. The Sixers are allowing opponents to shoot 33.8 percent from long range at home, which is 4th best in the NBA. New Orleans is now 1-7 ATS in its last eight road games and 0-6 ATS in its last six games as a road underdog of fewer than five points. The Sixers meanwhile are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games as a favorite of fewer than five points and that helps here as the favorite has covered four of the last five meetings in this series. Playing a top team is good here as Philadelphia is 8-3 ATS this season against teams winning between 60 and 70 percent of their games. The Sixers get their revenge tonight. 8* Philadelphia 76ers

**8** NBA DARK HORSE DANDY **7-0 ATS RUN** The Cavaliers are coming off a win on Friday against San Antonio, who has been hit with the injury bug once again, and they are on a 6-1 run, with three of those games coming at home where they are 26-1 this season. The two other wins on the road came against the Bucks and Raptors who are not very good teams. Overall, they are 19-11 on the road with a record of 9-7 over their last 16 road games, which is anything but impressive. Only five of those wins came against teams currently in the playoff picture and two of those were against Milwaukee and slumping Detroit. Cleveland still possesses the best ATS record in the NBA but most of that success has come at home and took place early in the season. Even with the recent 6-1 ATS run, Cleveland is 16-14 ATS in its last 30 games which is nothing that will make your eyes pop. It is that recent run that gives us the value we are looking for and the public is once again lining up behind the Cavaliers. Atlanta shook off a 2-4 roadtrip with a home win over Miami on Friday. That improved the Hawks to 20-6 at home this season which is far better than the Cavaliers record on the road yet Atlanta is receiving a good number of points on its home floor. The Hawks have already defeated Cleveland once on their home floor and while it sets up a revenge spot for the Cavaliers, playing the road revenge angle in this league is a bad option. Atlanta has been a solid option as an underdog this season as it is 17-9 ATS including a perfect 2-0 ATS as a home underdog, one of those wins coming against Cleveland. This is a really good spot for the Hawks as this is their final home game before hitting the road one again for a three-game trip. Don

**7** NBA NON-CONFERENCE GOW **16-4 RUN** Chicago has a score to settle. As a matter of fact, it has six scores to settle as it has dropped six straight meetings in this series with the Rockets. This includes a seven-point loss at Houston at the beginning of this month but I believe that the Bulls are in excellent shape tonight to extract some revenge. Chicago is coming off a very poor effort at Washington last night which followed up an equally poor effort at New Jersey two nights prior to that. It really befuddles the mind sometimes how a team can play so good at home against one of the best teams in the NBA, as Chicago did on Tuesday against Orlando, and then put up back-to-back duds on the road in the next two games. That is typical of the NBA and now that a really solid team is coming to the United Center, we should see the Bulls bounce back once again. Overall, the Bulls have been playing pretty well. They made some moves to improve the team and are certainly not giving up on what is another underachieving season. Chicago is making a playoff push as it is a game out of the current playoff standings and it is only four games out of the 6th place spot so there is still a lot of potential. The Bulls are 8-6 over their last 14 games which is even more impressive considering that 10 of those 14 games came on the road. Of five of their last seven losses going back to January 25, two have come in overtime while another came by just a bucket against Miami. With a few bounces going their way, the Bulls would be even in better shape right now. On top of that, Chicago has played the 3rd toughest schedule in the NBA while Houston has played just the 27th ranked slate. I was on the Rockets on Thursday against the Cavaliers and they pulled out a relatively easy win outright over the Cavaliers. I talked about how this team should start making a run in the Western Conference and how it is better off without Tracy McGrady in the lineup. I stand pat on those statement but we have to look at certain situations of when to play, when to get off and when to fade. This is a great spot for the latter. Houston is currently on a six-game winning streak which is tied with Utah for the longest current streak in the league. It hasn

**7** WESTERN CONFERENCE GOW **15-4 RUN** The Nuggets could not be more motivated for this game. The Lakers have won nine straight meetings in this series including all seven last year with a 4-0 sweep in the Western Conference Quarterfinals and that in turn is bringing in public money at an astounding pace. The Lakers are a public team to begin with but this only increases that. This string includes four straight at the Pepsi Center but only one of those games was out of hand as three were not decided until very late. The Nuggets lost both meetings this season but both of those games were played way back in November. Chauncey Billups was not even on the team yet in the one meeting in Denver and that will obviously make a huge difference this time around. Billups is the only guy on Denver's payroll who could be dubbed a Lakers slayer. He was Most Valuable Player of the 2004 Finals when he and the Pistons whipped the Lakers. Denver is 37-17 since his arrival and the home floor has been very tough for opponents. The Nuggets are 21-7 in the season which brings up another strong point. The Lakers are 21-6 on the road, which is just a half-game better so why exactly are they favored here? Granted, the overall record is nine games better but this game is not being played in Los Angeles or on a neutral floor. NBA liners are set based on venue so this does not make logical sense. Based on regular power rankings, the Lakers are about four points ahead of the Nuggets and then adding home court into the mix would make this game a pickem and based on the almost identical home/road records that is the line we should be seeing. All of the home losses by the Nuggets have come against the top teams in the NBA, with the exception of a three point loss to the Pistons, so it brings up the question as to whether they can compete with the big boys. The answer to that is yes the season has provided wins over those very same teams as well. Schedules are not being taken into consideration either. The Lakers are one of the best teams in the NBA there is no denying that but playing the 29th ranked schedule certainly hasn

**7** NBA DARK HORSE DANDY *60.5% TOP RUN* I was big on Dallas on Wednesday in a great revenge spot but I am not only jumping off the Mavericks here but I am going against them. I pointed out that the value was on their side against the Bucks as they were coming off a big loss against San Antonio the previous night. Motivation took care of everything and tonight, what sort of motivation can Dallas possibly have against Oklahoma City? I say little to none and the Mavericks have proven numerous time in the past that they play down to the competition and don