Sports Picks & Predictions

Miami has dropped its last two games but a trip to Philadelphia should put an end to that. The Heat lost at Orlando in overtime and then dropped its last game in Chicago on Wednesday and they will be looking to avoid their second three-game losing streak of the season. The swagger that was there during a nine-game winning streak and a 20-3 run has been absent as Miami is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven games but it has won 11 of its last 13 games against the Sixers, including nine straight in the regular season.

The Sixers lost to the Pacers on Wednesday after winning three straight against the Celtics, Jazz and Knicks and this is the first game of a tough two-game stretch as they head to Chicago tomorrow. Philadelphia leads the Atlantic Division by a game and a half over the Celtics and while it has been a good season so far, a lot of that is due to the scheduling as the Sixers have played the 27th ranked schedule in the NBA. They have been great as favorites but horrible as underdogs.

The Heat have comfortably taken both meetings this season against Philadelphia and while that sets up double revenge for the Sixers, it goes beyond that. As mentioned, they have lost nine straight regular season games in this series and as good as revenge can be as a motivator, sometimes the matchups simply get in the way. Motivation could be stronger on the other side as Miami has lost four straight road games and it has not lost five straight on the highway since 2007-08. That was their infamous 15-win season.

Miami was coming off a loss in its last visit to Philadelphia as two nights earlier it blew an 18-point lead at Milwaukee so the situation is somewhat similar. Miami is 15-7 against the top 16 in the NBA including 12-5 against the top ten while Philadelphia is just 6-14 against the top 16 including 6-8 against the top ten. The Sixers are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games against teams with a winning record and to no surprise they are just 1-3 as home underdogs this season. 10* (803) Miami Heat

Oklahoma City is coming off a home loss against Houston on Tuesday which was its second loss in its last three games, both coming at home. The Thunder still have a four-game over the Spurs but they are two games behind Chicago for the NBA's overall best record and that is and that is one of the goals as the best record gets home court advantage in the NBA Finals should they get that far. Hitting the road is no problem as Oklahoma City is 14-7 on the highway, which is the best road record in the NBA.

This is obviously a big game for Denver as well as it is five games over .500 on the season and it currently sitting in sixth place in the Western Conference. The Nuggets are only a game behind Memphis for the all-important fourth position but they are also just two games ahead of Minnesota which is sitting in ninth place. Denver surely needs to keep the winning going but this is not the spot to add to its one-game streak. The Nuggets are only 13-10 at home this season.

Oklahoma City is 8-0 in its last eight games following a loss including 7-1 against the number although the ATS record is meaningless since an outright win here means a cover as well. The Thunder are 16-7 against teams ranked in the top 16 in the NBA while Denver is just 11-15 against such teams. The Nuggets will be looking for some revenge here as they lost the first meeting this season on the road which came after losing in the first round of the playoffs last season four games to one.

The loss against the Rockets was dreadful as Oklahoma City was up 102-91 with 2:29 left but it was outscored 13-1 the rest of the way. That could linger for a lot of teams but not a team of the caliber of the Thunder as they plan to come back fighting. As Kevin Durant said, "We have to continue to just keep playing together and we'll be OK." The Nuggets are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight home games against teams with a winning road record while the Thunder are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games following an ATS loss. 10* (705) Oklahoma City Thunder

The Lakers are coming off a big and much needed win last night in Memphis as they took out the Grizzlies in double overtime for just their eighth road win this season. That sets up a great spot to go against them tonight as they have been horrible this year in situations like this. Los Angeles was a slight underdog on Tuesday but now it shifts to a road favorite which has been a money burning spot as it is only 3-6 straight up when laying chalk on the highway while going a putrid 1-7-1 ATS.

We played against New Orleans on Monday for a small play and came away with a victory as Charlotte not only covered but won the game outright for just its sixth win of the season. The outright victory was not at all surprising as the Hornets have played down to the opposition all season. When favored, they are now 0-6 ATS and have lost all of those games outright. They have not defeated any real bad teams at home but own signature home victories over Dallas, Orlando and Boston.

You can toss out revenge for the most part as New Orleans is far from the same team it was last season when it lost in the playoffs to the Lakers but it does add some motivation for the players that are still with the team. The Hornets lost the first round series 4-2 after winning the first game in Los Angeles but then losing the series clinching game at home by 18 points. Despite going 10-26 as an underdog this season, the Hornets are 20-16 ATS in those games and that shows how much they have been undervalued.

The Lakers are playing with no rest which has not been a good situation as they are 4-9 ATS in the second of back-to-back games. It gets even worse when the second game is on the road as they are 2-8 ATS which includes going 1-5 ATS when both of the games have been on the highway. The Hornets are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games as underdogs and while they have stepped up against the better teams, the Lakers have gone the other way, going 0-5 ATS in their last five games against teams with a losing home record. 10* (608) New Orleans Hornets

This is the third meeting this season between Toronto and Cleveland with the Raptors taking the first two matchups. We played on Toronto in that most recent game which took place back in January but this is a good opportunity for the Cavaliers to get some revenge while continuing its recent solid play. They have won three straight games which is a season high and their 16 victories are only three less than all of last season. Cleveland is a half-game behind Milwaukee for the eighth seed in the Eastern Conference.

Toronto has dropped its last two games to fall 15 games under .500 and this will be only its second road game so far in all of March. The Raptors are 6-14 away from home including a 1-5 record over their last six games on the highway which includes losses to Detroit an Washington. This will be the second straight start missed by point guard Jose Calderon which is huge as he is third in the NBA in assists and he leads the league in assist/turnover ratio with an incredible 4.47.

Cleveland's three-game winning streak is impressive enough but considering the wins came against Denver, Oklahoma City and Houston, it only adds to it. This could be a game the Cavaliers of last season would lay down but these victories have given them some much needed momentum and confidence in going for this playoff push. A key player has been rookie Kyrie Irving who is averaging 9.1 ppg in the fourth quarter since January 27th which is the best average in the NBA.

Irving looks for a big game here as he has been limited to 9.0 ppg on 5-25 shooting in the two meetings with Toronto. Cleveland has not won four straight games in two years so it knows how important this game really is despite coming against one of the worst teams in the conference. The Cavaliers fall into a great situation as we play on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are revenging a road loss while coming off a home win by 10 points or more. This situation is 98-60 ATS (62 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (534) Cleveland Cavaliers

Minnesota's first game without Ricky Rubio was not a good one as it lost at home to New Orleans and that wasn't a great surprise as it was a big loss for sure. Expect the Timberwolves to rebound it their second game however as they are still playing exceptional this season as they are 21-21, very solid considering they won only 19 games all of last season. They are also 9-9 on the road, one of just five teams in the Western Conference and 11 teams in the entire league with a .500 or better road record.

Phoenix is making a big push after it was written off a while ago. The Suns have won two straight games and are 7-2 over their last nine games. Only one of these games has been played on the road so they are taking care of business at home where they are now 12-9 and Phoenix trails Houston by only two games for the eighth and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. The Suns have been underdogs most of the time though and they have been very average in the role of favorites.

Rubio was having a great season no doubt but his loss isn't going to kill the Timberwolves. According to an ESPN report, Only 53 percent of the Timberwolves' made field goals have been assisted on, the 6th-lowest percentage in the NBA, and Rubio was turning the ball over on 22 percent of his possessions. His field goal percentage was pretty bad over his last few games and Luke Ridnour is a solid backup that will take over the spot until Juan Barea returns from his ankle injury.

Phoenix has owned this series with nine straight win including a victory in the lone meeting this season as it won by nine points earlier this month at home. The line is actually lower this time around which is a bit of a surprise based on the Suns recent play. Minnesota is 10-2 ATS this season in road games when coming off a game at home and it is 4-1 ATS in its last five road games against teams with a winning home record. Look for the Timberwolves to break their skid against Phoenix with an outright win. 10* (511) Minnesota Timberwolves

As bad as Portland has looked the last two games, this is a great opportunity for the Blazers to bounce back. They were hammered in Boston last night but that was no surprise. It was the Trail Blazers

Apparently it is the demise of the Lakers. They blew a 12-point lead against Detroit on Tuesday and ended up losing in overtime. The next night they blew a 21-point lead against Washington and lost by five points. Los Angeles should not be losing to either of those teams granted, but fatigue from the overtime game may have played a part in the late collapse against the Wizards. They have not been good on the road and everyone is talking about it. You can be sure they are hearing it .

Minnesota has been a great turnaround team this season as it has gone from the bottom of the Western Conference to a legitimate playoff contender. The Timberwolves are currently sitting tied for eighth with Utah for the final slot with five teams within two and a half games of the seventh spot so there is a cluster of team involved. Minnesota is arguably the rawest of the bunch so it will be interesting to see how it performs over the latter part of the season. All I know, this is not a good spot for the Timberwolves.

The Lakers have owned this series with wins in 17 straight meetings including a home win at the end of February by 19 points. The home and road surely makes a difference but dominance over a team for so long does have meaning. All of a sudden many seem to forget that the Lakers just defeated arguably the hottest team in the NBA when they upset Miami prior to heading out on the road. Yes that was at home but Los Angeles still ranks as one of the top teams in the NBA despite the road woes.

The Lakers have been road underdogs 12c times this season which is a lot for a solid team like this but those 12 games came against either NBA elite teams or teams with a strong home court advantage. The Timberwolves have neither. Los Angeles is 6-1 ATS in its lat seven games against teams with a winning record so it has stepped up to the opposition more often than not. The Lakers have covered four straight in Minnesota and this is the perfect opportunity for a big rebound performance. 10* (809) Los Angeles Lakers

The Bulls are rolling right now and they are playing with a purpose. They have been exceptional on their home floor, going 15-2 straight up and while they are just 9-8 ATS, six of those spread losses came when they were favored by 14, 12.5, 11, 11, 11.5 and 13.5 so covering the big number has not been a concern. Chicago has been a single digit favorite only twice in its last eight home games and it was able to cover both times. The Bulls are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 home games against teams with a winning record.

Orlando is coming off a dreadful loss against Charlotte as it blew a 20-point lead and lost by 16 points. All teams in the NBA have off nights but supposed title contenders do not let a 36-point swing take place not in their favor. The Magic dropped to 25-15 overall and 12-8 on the road which are still good but that should be the case when playing 28th ranked schedule in the league. Chicago has played a weak schedule also but their record is seven games better. Orlando has been good after a loss but not against this competition.

Chicago has been in this scenario of playing with no rest heading home coming off a road game and it has gotten the job done all five times. They are just 3-2 ATS in those games but it needs to be noted that the two spread losses were against Toronto and Charlotte when they were huge double-digit favorites. The Bulls won those five games by an average of 14.4 ppg so they have dominated. Overall Chicago is 11-2 when playing with no rest which includes an 8-5 record against the number.

Orlando is just 3-7 against the NBA's top ten with all three of those wins coming at home. One of the four home losses came against Chicago as the Bulls won by 14 points which was Chicago's fourth straight win in this series including the last three all coming Orlando. The revenge factor is in play but road revenge in this situation can be tossed. Orlando is 0-4 ATS in its last four road games while the Bulls are 5-0 ATS in their last five games against teams with a winning record. 10* (702) Chicago Bulls

Golden St. is finally back home following a grueling six-game roadtrip, five of which took place after the All-Star break. The Warriors did go 3-3 over those six games including a 20-point win in the finale at Washington so it does come home with some solid momentum. Golden St. is 9-9 at home this season but it has won five of its last seven games in Oakland after a 4-7 start. The two losses came against Oklahoma city and Portland by a combined five points.

Memphis has been on a roll as it went into the All-Star break riding a 7-2 run and it has won its three games since then to put together a very strong run. The Grizzlies have gotten up to the fifth spot in the Western Conference standings and are trailing the Clippers by just a half-game for the all-important fourth seed. This is a game they will not be taking lightly as they are playing with confidence and considering they do not play again until Saturday, there will be no lookahead.

The issue for Memphis is that most of those games during that 12-game stretch came at home. The Grizzlies only played three road games and the only two wins that came out of were at New Jersey and Toronto which are 3-13 and 6-13 respectively on their home floors. Memphis is 7-10 on the road this season and the only real quality win came at Atlanta. They did win the first meeting in Golden St. but that came by just one point after outscoring the Warriors by 17 points in the fourth quarter.

Golden St. will be looking to avenge that horrible home loss and while the Warriors did have a shot to take out the Grizzlies in Memphis, that game also resulted in a one-point loss after they took the lead into the fourth quarter. Two losses by a point will have them fired up here. Memphis has won only three times in 11 games as a road underdog and a loss here likely means a cover loss as well. Golden St. is 18-5 ATS in its last 23 home games following a roadtrip lasting longer than seven days. 10* (626) Golden St. Warriors

Los Angeles hits the road for the start of a three-game road trip and it comes against three teams that it has destroyed in the last meeting so the motivational aspect will be in favor of the opposing sides as the Lakers always have a bulls-eye on their backs. The Lakers are just 6-12 on the road compared to 17-2 at home and while they have lost to some good teams on the road, they have also thrown up some clunkers against some inferior teams as motivation remains an issue.

Detroit started the season at 2-3 with the wins coming against Orlando and Indiana but it went downhill fast. The Pistons dropped 10 of 11 games and 19 of their next 21 contests to hit an all-time low. Things have gotten a lot better and even though Detroit is well out of the playoff picture, it has gone 8-6 over its last 14 games, showing a much improved sense of confidence. At 9-11, the home record is at least respectable and it better than its counterparts road mark plus the Pistons are 9-5 ATS as home underdogs.

This used to be a great series back in the day but it has taken a turn for the worst since then. The Lakers have owned Detroit as they have won the last five meetings, all of which have been by double-digits and they have easily covered every one of those games. Looking at that seem to give Los Angeles the edge but as mentioned, it has not fared well on the road this season and laying a lot of points to an improving team is a big risk. Coasting through these games is no longer an option.

Los Angeles has not exactly been killing it on the road when it should as the Lakers have only won two of their six games as road favorites and are just 1-5 ATS in those games. Also they are just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 road games against teams with a losing home record. Detroit meanwhile is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games against teams with a losing road record while going 5-2 ATS after a loss. The time has been good in the past as well as the Pistons are 21-6 ATS when playing just their second game in five days. 10* (560) Detroit Pistons

Cleveland has lost five straight games including four in row coming out of the All-Star break but the wrong team is favored in this game. The Cavaliers have dropped three straight games at home to fall to 8-11 at home on the season but their home record is still much better than the Jazz' record on the road and those are the marks we need to look at in this league and not the overall numbers. In order somehow stay in the playoff hunt, Cleveland needs this game with two tough road games on deck.

Utah is coming off a loss in Dallas on Saturday as the road woes continue. The Jazz have lost six straight games on the road to drop to 3-13 on the season and this is after starting 2-3 away from home. They are three games out of the Western Conference playoffs but it is that close only because of a solid home court advantage and even that is down from recent years. Utah has been a road favorite only once this season as it was a five-point chalk at New Orleans and lost outright by six points.

The Jazz covered that last game in Dallas as 7.5-point underdogs but after a cover this season, they have lost 11 of 17 games next time out. Coming off a close loss has not helped matters either as Utah is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 games following a loss by six points or fewer. Going back to last season Utah is 1-4 ATS in its last five games as a road favorite while going 1-6 ATS in its last seven games on the road against teams that possess a losing record at home.

Cavaliers standout rookie Kyrie Irving has been sick and actually had to sit out against Chicago before coming back against Washington last time out. Him being healthy is pretty big. Cleveland is 4-11 against the NBA's top 16 teams but a much more respectable 9-11 against the teams outside that ranking and this number sets up well for the Cavaliers which are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games as underdogs of fewer than five points including 6-0 ATS in that role at home. 10* (502) Cleveland Cavaliers

As much as I like the Clippers as a team that can make some noise in the Western Conference, this is not a good spot for them on Sunday. I have played against them a couple times this year when they have come off a loss as that has been a strong situational angle for them but this game spells trouble. Los Angeles is 9-8 on the road this season which is very solid in this league but take a look at those road victories and you can se why it has been as successful as it has.

Houston closed the first half of the season as one of the hottest teams in the league but the second half has not been as good so far. After narrowly defeating the Raptors at home in their first game back, the Rockets lost at Utah by a ton and then were upset at home against Denver on Friday. Houston had a four-game winning streak prior to that and it is now sitting at 15-5 at the Toyota Center on the year which is certainly one of the better home records in the entire league.

The Rockets will not only be highly motivated to snap their current losing streak but they have some motivation toward the Clippers as well. The first meeting was in Los Angeles and it was a disaster from the start. The Rockets were outscored 41-26 in the first quarter and fell behind as much as 30 points so it was certainly not a great performance. Houston shot a respectable 46.1 percent but it could not compete with the Clippers which could not miss, shooting 57.3 percent from the floor.

The Rockets have been great this season in this situation as it is 8-1 ATS in its nine home games this season when coming off a loss and it has won those games by over 10 ppg. The Clippers meanwhile have not been as they are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 road games after a loss by six points or fewer. Making the situation ever better is the fact that the Rockets are 25-12-1 ATS in their last 38 games following a double-digit loss so they bounce back big here and we don't have to lay a big price to do so. 10* (810) Houston Rockets

Orlando had the night off following a tough home loss to Oklahoma City on Thursday night. The Magic are in good position to bounce back and sweep the season series against the Bucks. The loss against the Thunder snapped a three-game home winning streak where Orlando is now 12-7 on the season. That record could be a lot better though as three of those losses came in overtime and holding serve on their home court is becoming even more important as the season starts winding down.

Milwaukee lost a tough one in Atlanta last night as it led by 15 points in the third quarter, but got outscored 34-18 in the fourth quarter. The Bucks are now 0-2 on this roadtrip and 6-14 on the road overall and going back prior to the All-Star break, it has been a miserable run overall as they are 2-8 over their last 10 games. Three of those losses have come against Orlando and while playing the same team so many times in a short period normally helps, it isn't the case here.

Orlando has won the first three games of this series thanks to aggressive play. The Magic have outshot the Bucks in all three games but most important, they have held a 52-31 advantage in made free throws and that is no accident. They have had no answer for Dwight Howard who is averaging 21.7 ppg and 16.7 rpg in the three games. Orlando has won 13 straight games against Milwaukee with Howard in the lineup, and it has not lost a home game in this series since December of 2004.

Orlando hits the road for three straight games after this and coming off a loss, this is a big game to win. The Magic are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games while the Bucks are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games playing with no rest including 3-9 ATS this season. They also fall into a negative situation where we play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are revenging a home loss, off a cover where it lost the game straight up as an underdog. This situation is 58-24 ATS (70.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (502) Orlando Magic

The Sixers are coming off a tough home loss to the Thunder as they blew a late lead and ended up going down by four points. That has been a problem all season for Philadelphia as it has played 10 games against teams ranked in the top ten and it is just 2-8 in those contests. It is also just 6-12 against the top 16 but when playing teams below that, the Sixers are 15-5. that is a straight up record but when favored big, it has been no issue as they are 12-3 ATS when favored by seven or more points.

Golden St. got thumped in its first game out of the All-Star break but it bounced back quickly as it won on Wednesday in Atlanta. That improved the Warriors to 5-9 on the road and the Hawks were the first team they have beaten on the highways that is currently in a playoff position. They have had a similar problem like Philadelphia based on the opposition as overall, Golden St. is 7-5 against teams outside the top 16 in the league but just 7-13 against teams within it.

The Sixers went into the All-Star break riding a five-game losing streak so the fact that is came out and destroyed the Pistons in Detroit in the first game back was a good sign. Playing Oklahoma City even for the majority of the game was also a good sign and the Sixers know that this game against Golden St. is a big one because Chicago comes into town in their next game so riding a 1-7 losing mark is not something they want to go in with in trying to keep space between them and Boston in the Atlantic Division.

This is a revenge game for the Warriors which lost at home to Philadelphia by 28 points in the first meeting this season but we certainly are not going to be concerned about road revenge. As mentioned, the Sixers have been solid as bigger favorites and they are 40-19 ATS in their last 59 games against teams with a losing record so they have fared well as a chalk for some time now. Philadelphia has covered four straight meetings in this series at home while going 9-5 ATS this season following a loss. 10* (814) Philadelphia 76ers

The Clippers are coming off a loss in their opening game after the All-Star break and it was not a pretty game. They had Minnesota on the ropes but they were outscored by 15 points in the fourth quarter and an early double-digit lead turned into a late double-digit loss. The Clippers still hold down the third spot in the Western Conference and part of that has been the ability to recover from losses as Los Angeles has lost back-to-back games only twice all season.

While the Clippers were losing, the Kings were winning against Utah as they used a strong second half to pull away. Sacramento moved to 8-5 with that victory and even though it possesses a better home record than what the Clippers have on the road, this is not a good spot. The Kings have won back-to-back home games only once this year and part of the reason we played on them last night was the fact that the crowd was going to be more energized because of the announcement they were staying in town.

This is the start of a brutal stretch for Los Angeles as it plays six straight games on the road with a mix of good and bad teams. The Clippers have games at Houston, Minnesota and San Antonio which are the toughest of the bunch so a 3-3 record is imperative over this stretch. That means beating the poor teams and so far this year, it has had the knack of doing that as it is 8-3 against teams ranked outside the top 16 in the NBA. They are 5-0 ATS in their last five games against teams with a winning percentage below .400.

The Kings meanwhile have struggled against the better teams in the league as they are 5-15 against teams ranked within the top 16 in the NBA. This is the first meeting this season between these two teams and they don't meet again until a home-and-home in April. Los Angeles took three of the four last year. As mentioned, the Clippers have been great this season avoiding losing streaks and they are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a loss and 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a double-digit home loss. 10* (705) Los Angeles Clippers

The Spurs are finally back home following their annual rodeo roadtrip and it ended up being the most successful one in the history that they have had to do it. San Antonio went 8-1 in those games and while the one game was a forgetful 40-point loss in Portland, it bounced back two nights later with a win at Denver to close the first half. The successful roadtrip put the Spurs three games behind Oklahoma City in the Western Conference and now they are home for seven straight games to add to their 13-1 record at home.

The Bulls own the second best record in the Eastern Conference heading into Tuesday and they have been solid both at home and on the road. Their 14 road wins are the most in the NBA and while they do own good road wins against the Lakers, Clippers and Magic, none of the others are overly impressive. This has been the case for home games as well and it has led to the 29th ranked schedule in the NBA. The overall record is great, no doubt, but Chicago is just 7-5 against the top 16 including 2-2 against the top 10.

The Spurs meanwhile have played the toughest schedule in the league through the first half of the season and a lot of that is due to 20 of 34 games taking place on the road. San Antonio is 15-8 against the top 16 which is nearly double the amount of game placed against the upper echelon than the Bulls have played and the winning percentage is much better. The Spurs have also been tested with 14 gamers against the top 10, going 8-6 including a 6-0 record at home.

The only home loss for San Antonio came against Sacramento of all teams by just two points but that was a tough spot as it has just come off road games against Miami and Orlando, with the latter going into overtime and resulting in a two-point win. Going back to last season, the Spurs are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games at home against teams with a road winning percentage of greater than .600 while going 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games against teams with a winning record. 10* (520) San Antonio Spurs

The Kings are back home following a six-game roadtrip to end the first half of the season and it was not a very good one as they went 1-5. They did close out the trek with a victory at Washington which improved them to 4-17 away from home on the season. Those 21 road games are the most played by an team so the fact that Sacramento is near the bottom of the Western Conference is not much of a surprise. The Kings are a lot more respectable 7-5 at home.

Utah closed the first half with a disappointing loss at Minnesota as it blew an 18-point lead and lost by a bucket in the final seconds. That was the third straight loss for the Jazz and while the time off came at a great time for them, hitting the road again is not a good thing. They are 3-11 on the highway this season including losses in four straight road games and eight of their last nine. Utah is 1-4 ATS in its last five road games as an underdog of fewer than five points.

There was some good news in Sacramento as the second half of the season gets underway. The city, the NBA and the Kings announced a tentative deal Monday to finance a new arena that would keep the team in Sacramento. While it may not seem like a big deal, this has been an ongoing issue that has affected the team and its fans and now basketball is the main priority again. Based on that and the fact the Kings have been out of town so long, we should see a very strong crowd for the home team.

Sacramento has played the second toughest schedule in the NBA and a lot of that is because of the huge number of road games played. Despite the recent poor play, the Kings are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games and their six games difference of ATS wins versus straight up wins is the third biggest margin in the league. Sacramento is playing with some revenge as well as it lost in Utah by three points as nine-point underdogs last month. The Kings have covered three straight meetings as well as seven of the last nine. 10* (716) Sacramento Kings

We played on Atlanta Wednesday on the road as an underdog but will be fading the Hawks Thursday at home as an underdog and a lot of that is based on the situation and the opponent. Playing with no rest has been solid for the Hawks so far as they are 7-1 ATS in the second of a back-to-back set this season but this is the first instance of its this season where they are short handed. Atlanta is 0-6 ATS in its last six games as an underdog of fewer than five points.

The Magic have been playing very well, going 9-3 in their last 12 games heading into Wednesday following that four-game skid they endured in late January. Orlando has a 1.5-game lead on the Hawks in the Southeast Division and it would like to increase that with a quality road win. On the season, Orlando is 9-6 on the road while winning three of its last four games on the highway, the lone exception being a loss in Miami. The Magic are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games against teams with a winning home record.

The Magic are still out for revenge as Atlanta has dominated them of late. After winning the first regular season meeting last year, Orlando lost the final three regular season matchups and then faced the Hawks in the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals and lost the series in six games. Orlando then dropped the first meeting at home this season so it is out for some serious payback and it will not be treating this game like any other as a victory over its division nemesis would be perfect heading into the break.

Orlando falls into a great situation here as well as we play on road favorites with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 playing a team (with a winning percentage between .501 and .600, in February games. This situation is 48-20 ATS (70.6 percent) since 1996 with the straight up record being 53-15 and that is big since with this line, an outright win likely means a cover as well. Look for the Magic to be the hungrier team here and finally break though in this series. 10* (703) Orlando Magic

The Knicks have been playing some exceptional basketball as heading into Wednesday night, they have gone 8-2 over their last 10 games despite horrible losses to New Orleans and New Jersey, games they should have easily won. They have been nearly as good on the road as they have been at home, going 7-8 and while those wins have come against some weak teams, this is a different team now. While the feeling is that they have been overvalued, that changes against the most overvalued team in the NBA.

Miami is on a hot streak of its own as it has won seven straight games while going 18-3 over its last 21 games. While it did have a run of six straight covers, those 18 wins did not provide much contributions to the wallet as the Heat only covered 12 of those victories and in that 21-game span, they went 12-9 ATS and that six-game difference is very significant. Miami is 14-2 at home but only 8-8 against the number. The variance is worse coming off a win as it is 20-5 but a mere 12-13 ATS coming ff a victory.

The Knicks stayed within 10 points in the first meeting against the Heat this season down in Miami and they have gotten the best of Miami, going 4-0 ATS over the last four meetings, winning two of those outright last season. In that first meeting this season, obviously there was no Jeremy Lin and also Carmelo Anthony did not play while Amare Stoudemire had a very bad game, shooting just 5-14 from the floor, scoring 12 points and grabbing just six rebounds.

New York has been solid in this role as it is 30-11 ATS in its last 41 games as a road underdog while going 15-5 ATS in its last 20 games against teams averaging 99 or more ppg. Miami is just 5-15 ATS in its last 20 games after covering five or six of their last seven games and fall into a negative situation where we play against double digit favorites after a home game where both teams scored 100 or more points and playing eight or more games in 14 days. This situation is 59-25 ATS (70.2 percent) since 1996. 10* (701) New York Knicks

San Antonio burned us again last night with a narrow win and cover in Utah. We will be going against them here again though as this road run comes to an end. The Spurs have won 11 straight games including their first seven games during this roadtrip. The last two could have gone either way however and now playing their third tough opponent in four nights makes the challenge even tougher to keep the streak going. The depth has taken a big hit and could be in even worse shape tonight.

While the Spurs were winning in Utah, the Blazers were losing in Los Angeles as they were throttled by the Lakers in a game that was not as close as the final score indicated. Portland trailed by an many as 30 points as it was outscored 37-7 to start the game and never had a chance. That presents us with a good rebound opportunity as Portland heads back home where it is 12-5 on the season. The Blazers got back to their wining ways at home with a win over Atlanta after losing four straight.

As mentioned, the Spurs are pretty thin right now. In the win over the Clippers, they paid a price as Manu Ginobili got hurt again and is out for a while and center Tiago Splitter also left the Clippers game with an injury. Both are out until March. On top of this Tim Duncan has logged nearly 79 minutes in his last two games on Saturday and Monday so he could very well sit out tonight or be limited in hid minutes. The Spurs got key contributions late from reserves last night and that isn't likely to happen again.

The Blazers are 13-3 ATS as favorites of four points or more this season so this is a situation they have excelled at. They have been great avoiding long losing streaks as they are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss while going 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a spread loss. Portland had won three straight games in this series but lost the first meeting this season in San Antonio which sets up a revenge spot. The Blazers have won six straight at home in this series. 10* (710) Portland Trailblazers

Cleveland looks to make an immediate bounceback after getting blown out at home against Miami on Friday and it is in good position with a short price. The Cavaliers fell to 6-8 at home with that loss but prior to the Heat loss, they were 3-2 in their last five games at home which were wins over the Pacers, Clippers and Mavericks. Cleveland is 11-6 following a loss this season which is not bad considering losses came in big bunches last season. A wins here evens out their current homestand.

Sacramento is also coming off a loss on Friday as it lost in Detroit by six points which was its fourth consecutive loss and third straight loss to open this six-game roadtrip. The Kings have been playing well at home with some big wins over some big teams but the road has been a completely different story as they are now 3-15 on the season. The Kings have allowed an average of 111.7 ppg on 49.6 percent shooting in losses to Chicago, New York and Detroit to open the roadtrip.

Cleveland has had a tough time generating offense on a consistent basis but Sacramento won't slow its down here based on those last three games and the fact that it is allowing 102.5 ppg on 47.3 percent shooting in those 18 road games. The offense has been arguably worse as the Kings are averaging only 90.2 ppg on 40.8 percent shooting, 25th and 29th in the league respectively. Cleveland has shored up its defense, allowing more than 100 points only once in regulation in its last nine home games.

That matchup will be important as Sacramento is 2-6 ATS in its last eight games after allowing 100 or more points while Cleveland is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games when its opponent allows 100 points or more. As mentioned, Cleveland has been solid coming off a win and it is now a perfect 5-0 ATS in its last five games coming off a cover loss. The Kings and the underdogs have dominated this series of late against the number but the dynamics have changed on both sides with roster turnover making it meaningless. 10* (808) Cleveland Cavaliers

San Antonio is up to its old tricks, winning its last nine games which is the longest winning streak of any team in this out of sorts NBA season. The last five games have all been on the road and after a brief stop at home, the Spurs resume their rodeo trip today. The opposition during this winning streak has been suspect at times, especially during the east coast swing but now things will start to toughen up. The Spurs are just 3-6-1 ATS on the road coming off a win.

Los Angeles has had a day off to relish in its win in Portland, the first time the Clippers have won at the Rose Garden in their last six tries. They return home where they are 11-3 on the season and the win over the Blazers can go a long way as they battled back from an 18-point deficit. Los Angeles has won four of five, six of eight and 10 of its last 13 games going back to late January and the majority of those games were on the road as the Clippers have had just four home games during that stretch.

Last year the Clippers broke through with their first win in forever in this series, snapping an 18-game winning streak by the Spurs. San Antonio got right back to dominating though as it won the first meeting this season by 25 points at home but that was just the second game of the season for each team. Los Angeles has obviously come a long way since then and now it can actually play for revenge as it has the capability to start its own run of domination.

The Clippers have been solid in the payback role this season, going 9-1 ATS in their games revenging a road loss. Playing the elite has been prosperous as they are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 home games against teams with a winning percentage of .700 or more and they fall into a great situation where we play on favorites revenging a double-digit road loss in a game involving two teams with winning percentages between .600 and .750. This situation is 56-27 ATS (67.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (502) Los Angeles Clippers

Miami is coming off a very impressive run and it was actually one of the best ever as the Heat won three games in three nights on the road, all by double digits and they were the first team ever to accomplish that feat. They are on a hot run right now, winning 15 of their last 18 games to move a half-game behind Chicago in the Eastern Conference prior to Friday's action. Miami has won four straight games o the road but it is just 6-5 in its last 11 games on the highway.

Cleveland is showing a ton of improvement this season as it is 11-16 through 27 games. Last season the Cavaliers were just 8-19 through 27 games and it took them 58 games to finally catch that 11th victory which shows things are on the rebound. Cleveland is a decent 6-7 at home and the last three wins have been impressive ones against the Pacers, Clippers and Mavericks. This is the biggest game of the season thus far as even though the LeBron James move is in its second season, it is still a big thing in Cleveland.

The funny thing about all of this is that James said just on Thursday that he wouldn't rule out coming back to Cleveland. "And if I decide to come back, hopefully the fans will accept me," he said. Good luck on that one. The Cavaliers have lost both meetings so far this year but both of those came in Miami and the line comparisons are pretty interesting. The Heat were favored by 13.5 points in both of those games meaning a chance in venue should move this number to around -5.5 to -6.5 yet the Heat are laying double-digits.

Cleveland didn't do so well last season with the initial return of James as it lost by 28 points but capped the season with a 12-point home win. Miami lost some momentum with the two nights off I believe and Cleveland is more than capable of winning this game outright with the way it has been playing but the 10 points are well worth the take. The Cavaliers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as a home underdog while Miami is 2-5 ATS in its last seven games as a road favorite between 5.0 and 10.5 points. 10* (808) Cleveland Cavaliers

This line came out late due to the uncertainty of Bulls guard Derrick Rose and Celtics forward Kevin Garnett, mostly because of the former. Rose is most likely out for this game and Rose has missed eight games this season with Chicago going 6-2 in those games so while his absence is missed, it is far from detrimental to the team. Granted the wins came against mostly scrub teams but the Bulls are more than capable of winning against the better teams obviously.

Chicago owns the best record in the Eastern Conference at 24-7 and it has accomplished this despite playing a very tough schedule to start the season. The schedule itself is ranked only 27th in the NBA but of their 31 games, 20 of those have been on the road. Prior to their win over Sacramento, the Bulls endured a nine-game roadtrip and came away pretty successful with a 6-3 record. The trip ended with a loss at Boston so there will be some payback on the table for this one.

The Celtics are coming off a brutal loss last night at home against the Pistons, their third loss in four games with the lone win being that game against Chicago. Garnett missed his first game of the season last night and his availability is still unknown for tonight but the feeling is that he will play. He may have a big impact however because he is not 100 percent but with or without him will not make a difference. Boston is just 4-5 on the road and has played a schedule the opposite of the Bulls with 19 of 28 games being at home.

Boston is 3-4 ATS this season in the second of a back-to-back set and this is just the fourth time that the second game has taken place on the road. The first three times all resulted in straight up and ATS losses with Boston losing those games by 19, 14 and 12 points. Also, the Celtics are just 1-7 ATS in their last eight road games against teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. They have been solid as bigger underdogs this season but this situation calls for a big Bulls revenge win. 10* (704) Chicago Bulls

It is time for some road revenge for the Hawks. Playing road revenge in this league is not usually a wise endeavor but this season is different than most with situations popping up that we have not seen in quite some time. Atlanta is on a five-game roadtrip and it is a brutal one that started off against the Lakers on Tuesday and also features games at Portland, Chicago and New York. This is the most winnable game of the bunch and Atlanta knows it so there will be no post-Laker letdown.

The Suns were playing some solid basketball with wins in four of five games before losing at Golden St. on Monday. The starters logged a lot of minutes in that game and that is important because the Suns are also in action on Tuesday at Denver making this one their third game in three nights. While some players will most likely rest on Tuesday, it is obviously not a full team rest and with the different rotations taking place, it makes things really difficult and can hurt the team chemistry.

Atlanta lost the first meeting at home to Phoenix by nine points and that was the third of three straight ugly losses at home. That was the fourth straight win by the Suns in this series as they swept the season series last year and won the final game the previous season. Phoenix has actually covered six straight games in this series and while it has won the last four home meetings, take note that the Suns were favored in all of those games. Despite the win earlier this year, these teams have switched positions.

Phoenix is 13-1 this season against teams ranked outside the top 16 and that only loss happened to be against the Suns so it was a total aberration. While there won't be a Laker letdown as mentioned because of the schedule, the Hawks have been good in this spot to begin with as they are 6-1 ATS when playing with on rest this season including 5-0 ATS in their last five. The Suns are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games and their 5-7 straight up record is certainly nothing to be intimidated by. 10* (521) Atlanta Hawks

Miami is coming off a blowout win last night in Milwaukee, its third straight victory, all of which have come on the road. The Heat are now playing their third game in three nights and while the minutes for the starters have been kept under control, this is still a tough task no matter how much rest was given. The Heat are now 10-5 on the road but just 5-5 over their last 10 games on the highway after starting the season 5-0. They are 7-8 ATS in those games which signals being overvalued.

Indiana meanwhile has lost three straight games but has had two days off a try and get things sorted out. The Pacers were involved in their own tough stretch as they played four games in five nights and it obviously did not work in their favor. 10 of their last 15 games have been on the road and on the season, 17 of their 27 games have been on the highway so it has been a difficult schedule to start to the season. The Pacers are 0-5 ATS in those most recent home games which adds to the great contrarian spot here.

Not only are the Pacers ready to end their losing skid overall, they are looking to end a three-game losing streak to the Heat. This includes a loss in the only meeting this season which resulted in a 35-point drubbing in Miami and Dwyane Wade didn't even play. Indiana hung around for a quarter but then it was all Miami and that defeat was the Pacers worst loss since a 132-89 loss in New York in January, 2010. And yes, the Pacers did avenge that loss against the Knicks as well.

This is a game they desperately need to get back on track and prove that they can defeat a quality opponent. The situation definitely calls for it and Indiana also falls into one of the best league-wide situations out there. We play on home underdogs with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 on the season that are coming off a loss as a favorite. This situation is 45-18 ATS (71.4 percent) since 1996 including going a solid 11-2 ATS over the last five seasons. The Pacers get their revenge tonight. 10* (702) Indiana Pacers

We won with Golden St. last night and we will come back with the Warriors tonight for many of the same reasons. They defeated Houston last night which was just their second win over the Rockets in the last 14 meetings and tonight they will try and defeat the Suns for just the second time in the last 13 meetings. Golden St. has lost to Phoenix in seven consecutive matchups and again similar to the Houston scenario, the Warriors have been underdogs in all of those meetings showing how things have turned around.

Phoenix is playing its best basketball of the season as it has won four of its last five games including three straight on the road. The Suns were 4-8 on the highway prior to this so they were not a very good road team and keeping this pace up will certainly be a challenge. While they are playing with some positive momentum, Phoenix may be looking past the Warriors as they head to Denver tomorrow night, part of a three-game stretch being played in three nights.

Golden St. brings in an identical 7-8 record on its home floor. Prior to the most recent home loss against Oklahoma City, the Warriors had won three of four games, all of which came at home with the lone defeat coming against that same Oklahoma City team so take away games against the best team in the west and the Warriors are 4-0. Golden St. owns some big wins against Chicago, Miami and Portland while four of those eight losses have been by three points or less so the record could very well be much better.

The Warriors have failed to win three straight games as they have had an opportunity to accomplish this on three previous occasions only to fail all three times. That provides added motivation. "We want to get on a little win streak here and get back in the playoff hunt," said Klay Thompson. "We're more than capable right now." Golden St. is 30-15 ATS in its last 45 home games after scoring 105 or more points in its previous game while going 15-7 ATS in its last 22 games as a home favorite of fewer than five points. 10* (512) Golden St. Warriors

Utah is coming off a win last night in Memphis as it snapped a four-game road losing streak to improve to just 3-7 on the road. Clearly they are not a good team away from home and no matter the opposition, putting them in the role of a road favorite is dicey. This is their first instance this season which shows time are changing as Utah was a road chalk 30 times the last two seasons. This has the makings of a letdown game for Utah based on last night and what is on deck.

This is the second of three games in three night for Utah and while you might think to wait to go against them tomorrow night, the opportunity strikes tonight. Head coach Tyrone Corbin said he planned on tweaking some minutes to keep players fresh but it certainly did not happen last night against Memphis. The Jazz have four players averaging over 25 minutes, Al Jefferson (33.1), Paul Millsap (31.3), Gordon Hayward (28.2) and Devin Harris (26.2) and all exceeded their average last night.

New Orleans is having a miserable season as it is 4-23 and hot on the heels of Charlotte as the worst team in the NBA. The Hornets have lost eight straight games straight up and all of those resulted in cover losses as well. They have been equally bad at home and on the road but the one big thing in our favor is value. New Orleans has been a home underdog numerous times but that has been against the NBA's top teams and not a team that is in search of just their fourth road win of the season.

Not only does Utah have to try and stay somewhat fresh for tomorrow night but it is a meaningful game as the Jazz catch Oklahoma City again to try and get some payback. The Jazz are 4-5 ATS this season when playing with no rest and they have lost both games when playing on the road for two straight games so they are in a very vulnerable spot. Add to that, Utah is 0-5 ATS in its last five road games against teams with a losing home record and we have the chance to see an outright upset tonight. 10* (506) New Orleans Hornets

Surprisingly the road team has won the first two meetings this season but that changes Sunday. Miami is only two games ahead of Atlanta in the Southeast Division and is a game worse on the road than the Hawks are at home yet the Heat are favored and by a substantial amount. When these teams met in Atlanta in the last meeting just over a month ago, Miami was favored by a point and now the number has risen significantly and it will prove to be too much of an increase.

Miami won and covered in that meeting but it was an overtime victory that obviously could have gone either way. The Heat are 8-5 on the road this season and of the other seven road wins, three were by three points or fewer while two others came against New Jersey and Washington, two of the worst teams in the Eastern Conference. They are coming off that win over the Wizards but the away wins have been few as they are just 3-5 in their last eight on the highway.

Atlanta hit a small bump in the road last week as it dropped three straight games at home and badly. They lost those games by a combined 54 points against the spread but the Hawks bounced back with an easy home win over Indiana and then followed that up on Friday with an overtime win at Orlando. They look to be back to the way they were playing earlier in the season which included a big come-from-behind win at Miami. Atlanta is 11-5 ATS in its 16 games against opponents coming off a win.

The Heat are still considered the team to beat in the Eastern Conference because they are the reigning champions but it comes as no surprise that their ATS record is eight games less than their straight up record and that eight-game difference is easily the biggest disparity between ATS and SU records in the NBA. It is a simple explanation of a team being extremely overvalued. Miami is just 4-8 ATS as a road favorite this season and this is the area where most teams do see the overvaluation the most. 10* (808) Atlanta Hawks

Both Portland and Dallas were in action on Friday and while the Blazers have been pretty below average when playing with no rest, this game means a lot to the Blazers. In last year's first round in the Western Conference Quarterfinals, the Blazers had a 2-2 tie with Dallas but lost Game Six against the Mavericks and after winning the first two home games, they lost to Dallas by seven points in the Rose Garden to end the series. This is the first meeting since then and Portland has not forgotten.

Dallas is coming off a win at Denver on Thursday but the Mavericks have been looking anything but the World Champions that they are. They are 15-11 on the season but have battled consistency throughout the year. Prior to the game against Denver, Dallas had dropped its three previous games which came right after an 11-3 run which does show the inconsistencies. The Mavericks are 9-5 at home but they have been far from dominating as they have a scoring differential of just +4.9 ppg.

That is important because Dallas has played a schedule this season that is ranked right in the middle of the NBA. The Mavericks have been able to take care of the poor teams, going 11-1 against teams ranked outside of the top 16 in the power rankings but they are just 4-10 on the year against the top 16 including a 3-7 record against the top ten. Needless to say, Portland is within both of those groups. Overall, Portland has played a weaker overall slate but is 5-3 against the top 10 and 7-6 against the top 16.

As mentioned, this is a revenge game for the Blazers as anytime a team ends your season, you don't forget. Portland has struggled in Dallas over the years and it has struggled in the role of a road underdog as well but those can be tossed out here. The Blazers have gone 0-5 ATS as underdogs of fewer than four points but they covered their only game when they were getting more than that, a 10-point outright win in Oklahoma City as 4.5-point dogs. Basically it shows the value we are receiving tonight. 10* (511) Portland Trailblazers

After the Lakers brought home the NBA title back in 2009-10, the Celtics went to Los Angeles in the first meeting last season and defeated the Lakers by 13 points. The Lakers then returned the favor in Boston by way of a six-point victory so last season the road team won both of the meetings. I think that changes this year starting off with this first meeting in Boston and a lot of that is simply based on the way Los Angeles have been playing on the road this season.

The Lakers are only 3-9 away from home on the season with the wins being all narrow ones against Utah, Minnesota and Denver. We had the Lakers in that game against the Timberwolves as they were getting two points which is just a bucket less than what they are getting here. I feel that is undervaluing the Celtics which are back to relatively full strength with the return of Ray Allen and Rajon Rondo. Rondo is a big key in the success of Boston both past and future.

Boston has won four straight games, all coming at home and while those wins came against some weak competition, that is negated by the fact that the Celtics have been home for the entire month and for a team that is near the top of the age group in the NBA, that is big benefit. The Celtics have spent the majority of their early season at home as two-thirds of their games have taken place there so they need to add to their 10-6 home record. It needs to be noted that Rondo has been out for the last two Boston home losses.

Even though both teams are not playing to their potential, this is a big game as this rivalry is still strong and we have to give the big edge to the home team in this instance. The Lakers are just 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring 90 points or less two straight games and 9-23 ATS in their last 32 games against teams that are outscoring opponents by three or more ppg. They are also -9 ATS in their last 11 games as a road underdog while Boston is 4-1-1 ATS in its last six games as a home favorite of five points or less. 10* (702) Boston Celtics

The Hawks are in a funk right now. After winning five of six games to close out January, they have lost their last three games, all of which have come at home and all were very winnable games. Losing to Memphis and Philadelphia are not horrible losses but the most recent defeat against Phoenix was a bad one as it was Atlanta's first loss against a losing team at home this season. The Hawks were keeping pace with Miami but they are now three games back in the Southeast Division.

Indiana is coming off a home win last night against Utah and while it should have been an easy victory, it was far from that. The Pacers built a 21-point lead before the Jazz came back to tie the game but Indiana was eventually able to pull away late. That type of victory took a lot out of them even it never should have come down to that. Indiana has been playing great all season as it is just 2.5-games behind Chicago in the Central Division thanks to equally good play at home and on the road.

Atlanta will have plenty of motivation because of its three-game skid but also because of a loss it suffered in Indiana last month. The Pacers defeated the Hawks by 12 points but it was a lot uglier than that as Indiana was down by 24 points thanks to putting up a nine-spot in the third quarter. Atlanta has covered the last four meetings at home against Indiana and the favorite has taken control of this series, covering 16 of the last 21 meetings. The Hawks have won eight straight home meetings as well.

The Hawks fall into a very solid situation as well as we play on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are coming off a loss as a favorite, in a game involving two teams with winning percentages between .600 and .750. This situation is 53-20 ATS (72.6 percent) since 1996. Atlanta has not lost four straight home games since April of 2007 and this has turned into a must win situation as the Hawks have games against the Magic, Heat and Lakers in their next three contests. 10* (512) Atlanta Hawks

Oklahoma City came away with a big overtime win last night in Portland and I expect a bit of a letdown following that. The Thunder have not alternated wins and losses in each of their last five road games and while tonight's game may seem like a relief after last night, that won't be the case. They picked up their 10th road win of the season last night which is the most in the Western Conference so while they have played well away from home, they are just 2-5 ATS this season when playing with no rest.

Golden St. is coming off an overtime game as well, but it lost at Sacramento and that was all the way back to Saturday. The Warriors had won three of four games prior to that, all of which came at home with the lone defeat coming against this same Oklahoma City team. Overall Golden St. is 6-7 at home but it does own some big wins against Chicago, Miami and Portland while three of those seven losses have been by three points or less so the record could very well be much better.

The loss against the Kings was the second straight game against Sacramento that the starters were benched because of a lack of effort and hustle. It was a message from head coach Mark Jackson basically telling his players get more competitive or don't play. Because that happened last game and there has been two days off since then, we can expect to see a much better effort. After that first game against Sacramento, the Warriors came back next game and blew out Utah with the starters scoring 98 of the 119 points.

While this is the second of a back-to-back for Oklahoma City, it is also the fifth game in seven days and there has been travel involved in every one of those days. Adding to the Warriors incentive is the revenge factor as they lost by 11 points in that last meeting no thanks to getting outscored by 17 points from the free throw line which is usually pretty unheard of for a home team. Golden St. is 4-1 ATS in its last five home games against teams with a road winning percentage of .600 or better. 10* (712) Golden St. Warriors

The Thunder are coming off a loss on Saturday at San Antonio and while they have lost back-to-back games only once this season, being the favorite hear is a stretch. They have been the road favorite in 11 of their 13 games on the road but the two games they have not been favored have come against very similar opposition in Dallas and San Antonio. Oklahoma City split those games and its loss against the Spurs is very similar to the way this one sets up.

Portland is 11-1 at home this season which is the second best home record in all of the league behind San Antonio's 13-1 mark. The Blazers are coming off a decisive 20-point win over Denver on Saturday which made it five wins in a row at the Rose Garden. That only loss came against Orlando which may not look very good right now with the way the Magic have been playing but it was right before the start of a six-game roadtrip for Portland so the loss can at least be somewhat justified.

This is a revenge game for Oklahoma City as it lost at home to Portland by 10 points back on January 3rd which is its only home loss this season. That certainly is going to provide some added motivation for the Thunder but road revenge in the NBA is not a situation that we like to go after. They have not lost back-to-back road games since last April and those games happened to include Portland into the mix as well. The Thunder are just 3-9 over the last 10 meetings in this series. 10* (520) Portland Trailblazers

Toronto heads home after getting crushed in Boston on Wednesday by 36 points which came after a home loss to the Hawks by 23 points. It has been an up and down year so far for the Raptors but this is a good spot to get back into the win column as they catch one of the worst teams in the NBA while playing with revenge on top of it. Toronto is just 2-6 at home but this is just its third home game in its last 12 games and the Raptors hit the road again on Monday.

Washington has been playing a lot better since the firing of head coach Flip Saunders but this is still a bad team. The Wizards held their own against Orlando on Wednesday but the Magic are playing some of the worst basketball in the league right now so that wasn't much of a surprise. Washington did have that shocking win over Oklahoma City but it was pretty clear after seeing that game that the Thunder didn't even show up. Two other wins came against 3-20 Charlotte.

That fourth victory came against Toronto at home and the Raptors have not forgotten. The Wizards were playing horrible and were off to a 0-8 start before Toronto came calling and it resulted in a 15-point home win. Giving Washington its first win was an embarrassing situation for Toronto and they will be out for some payback at home. The home team has won the last six meetings in this series so the Raptors know they can take care of business in what is a rare home game.

Toronto is also going to right the ship from the debacle against the Celtics. "You learn from getting your butt kicked like we did tonight," Toronto head coach Dwane Casey said. "I told the team, 'For the rest of your basketball careers, remember how this feels tonight, getting beat by 40.' It's something you never want to forget." The Wizards are 2-7 ATS in their last nine road games against teams with a home winning percentage of less than .400 so don't think Washington steps up even if the opposition is a step down. 10* (804) Toronto Raptors

After starting the season 1-2, the Clippers have been playing excellent as they are 11-5 in their 16 games since then and they have only played one really bad game over that stretch, a 29-point loss in Utah where Chris Paul did not play and starters were pulled early. It was also the second game of a three-game-three-night set so the situation as bad to begin with. Los Angeles has won 10 of its last 11 games at home with the only loss being a three-point setback against the ever improving Timberwolves.

Denver is no doubt a solid and improving team but it enters this game riding a two-game skid, the third time it has been involved in such a losing streak. The Nuggets never made it three straight defeats but they had the luxury of playing that third game at home in the first two instances. They are coming off a loss at Memphis in overtime which snapped a five-game road winning streak and it was some karma in that loss as two of those wins during that winning streak came in overtime as well.

Denver will be out for payback here as it lost at home to the Clippers which was the first of the two most recent defeats. It won't be that easy however. The Nuggets have lost three straight meetings in this series going back to last season and two of those were when the Clippers were not nearly as good. The addition of Chris Paul has been enormous as he is averaging 18.1 ppg and 8.9 apg and while the Clippers went 3-2 without him, they need him in there to keep pace in the Western Conference.

Los Angeles has been getting it done against the solid teams as well as it is 5-1 ATS in its last six games against teams with a winning record and it possesses a 5-3 straight up record against the top ten in the NBA. Those five wins are tied for the most in the league with Miami, San Antonio and Minnesota. Overall the Clippers have played the sixth toughest schedule and being in second place in the conference is very impressive based on that. Look for the confidence of this team to continue climbing. 9* (510) Los Angeles Clippers

Atlanta returns home following a 4-1 roadtrip and because of the Orlando collapse, the Hawks have moved into second place in the Southeast Division, just a half-game behind Miami. They are a solid 8-5 on the road but they are an even better 8-1 at home where they are outscoring opponents by 11.6 ppg. The schedule has been a mix of cupcake teams as well as some powers so they have held their own by going 3-4 against teams ranked within the top and 13-2 against teams ranked outside that range.

We won with the Grizzlies in their last game against Denver and admittedly, it was a fortunate win. Memphis came back from a 13-point deficit to send the game into overtime and Denver had a chance to possibly put it away but the Grizzlies fought and came away with the outright win. The short homestand is history as the Grizzlies hit the road for the seventh time in 10 games and they have not been road warriors, going 4-7 overall with all four of those wins coming against losing teams.

Atlanta got Kirk Hinrich back three games ago and while he has not put up huge numbers, his presence is good for the depth of the team. He will shake off the rust as he gets more games under his belt and this will be his first game in Atlanta since his return. The goal is to get him going and get him involved in a trade for a big man as the play of Jeff Teague at the point has been terrific. The matchup here is a good one for Atlanta since Memphis is without Zach Randolph as he has been a Hawks killer down low.

Memphis has a game at Oklahoma on Friday and it is still looking for revenge following last season's playoff defeat. The Grizzlies have hosted the Thunder twice and both resulted in close losses so payback in still in the plan. The Hawks have been solid in the role of a small favorite as they are 9-2 ATS when laying single digits this season while Memphis is just 1-5 ATS in its six games as an underdog between three and 7.5 points and 0-7 ATS in its last seven road games against teams with a winning home record. 10* (502) Atlanta Hawks

This is already the fourth meeting between Houston and San Antonio and the Spurs will be going for the series split as they lost for the second time in Houston in the last meeting just over a week ago. San Antonio picked up its third road win on the season at Memphis on Monday and it was certainly a bog one for confidence. The Spurs have been much better at home this season as they are 10-1 with an inexplicable loss against Sacramento being the lone blemish.

We played against Houston on Monday and it got stomped at home against Minnesota. I think this is a good spot to continue to fade the Rockets as the markets are still giving them too much credit because of their recent winning streak. It was a horrible start for the Rockets which opened 3-7 but has taken nine of its last 11 games and the schedule has played a big part in that. Seven of those wins came against teams with a losing record and only two of those games were on the road.

Houston has played nine of its last 11 games at home after starting the season with seven of its first 11 games on the road so you can see how the record have evened things out for the most part. It is early but the Rockets have been very public in calling out their coaches and that is certainly not a thing to let everyone hear. They are saying coaches are not making adjustments but it comes down to effort and if there is effort to begin with, adjustments do not even need to be made.

Houston is 3-6 on the road and the defense has been a sieve as the Rockets are allowing 102.2 ppg on 48.9 percent shooting. San Antonio remains one of the better shooting teams in the NBA as it is tied for fifth at 46.1 percent shooting from the floor including 47.4 percent at home which is good for sixth best in the league. The Spurs are 4-0 ATS in their last four games against teams with a winning record while Houston is 1-4 ATS in its last five road games against teams with a winning home record. 10* (718) San Antonio Spurs

Memphis returns home following its four-game roadtrip that did not end very well. After winning at Golden St., the Grizzlies lost the final three games against the Blazers, Clippers and Suns. To their credit, they looked better as each game moved along but heading home has come at a good time before things get too out of hand. Before this three-game skid, Memphis had won seven straight games including four straight at home where it is 6-2 on the season. It has played the eighth toughest schedule in the NBA.

Denver had its own winning streak snapped as its six-game run came to an end with a home loss against the Clippers on Sunday. The Nuggets pay a visit to the Clippers on Thursday so they already be looking forward to that game for some revenge. Even so, this is the toughest road test Denver has seen in some time as it has won five straight away games, two of which took overtime to win. The three road losses this season came against the Spurs, Lakers and Blazers.

With the Grizzlies playing on Monday against San Antonio, this could be taken as a possible letdown spot but they need to gain some momentum back and this game is their last home game before another roadtrip, this one consisting of three games. And those games are against Atlanta, Oklahoma City and Boston in a three-in-four-night stretch so that adds to the importance of this game against Denver. Memphis won the only home meeting against Denver last season after dropping three of the previous four.

This is the fourth time Memphis has played with no rest this season but this is just the second time that the second game has been at home. The first resulted in a 33-point win over Sacramento on its home, floor and while we cannot compare the Kings to the Nuggets, the situational of having a non-travel day wit the second game at home is very big. The Grizzlies are 15-3 ATS in their last 18 games as a home favorite of fewer than five points. Look for a big bounceback Tuesday. 10* (510) Memphis Grizzlies

We played against Minnesota last night but will back the Timberwolves tonight in what is a good bounce back situation. They are coming off a five-point loss to the Lakers but fought back from an 18-point deficit in what could have turned into a win had the shots fallen. Minnesota outrebounded the Lakers 52-41 including a 24-7 edge on the offensive end while committing just four turnovers. This is a much improved team this season and now has what it takes to win on the road.

Houston is off to a surprisingly good start this season as it is 12-8 and just a half game behind Dallas for first place in the Southwest Division. It was a horrible start for the Rockets which opened 3-7 but has taken nine of its last 10 games and the schedule has played a big part in that. Seven of those wins came against teams with a losing record and while one of those was at Minnesota, the Timberwolves were the best of the bunch. A 9-2 home record is offset but just a 6-6 record within the conference.

One key players is back in the Minnesota rotation and that is Michael Beasley who has played the last two games after missing the previous 11 games with a foot injury. He is coming off a double-double last night and his presence is big. The Rockets are dealing with their own injury issues as Kevin Martin, the teams' leading scorer, is questionable with plantar fasciitis, He has missed the last two games and his status has kept this game off the board at most shops.

The Timberwolves will look to get some payback after last Monday's home loss to the Rockets as they were hammered by 15 points. Road revenge is not easy but Minnesota has been holding its own in these spots as it is 5-1 ATS in its last six games as a road underdog between 5.0 and 10.5 points while going 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games against teams with a winning record. The Rockets have absolutely dominated this series but the Timberwolves took the last meeting in Houston last season. 10* (711) Minnesota Timberwolves

The Lakers were a huge disappointment last night but that wont stop me from backing them again tonight. Los Angeles fell behind against Milwaukee early and could not come back as it lost by 11 points and was outscored in three of the four quarters. While I expected last night to be a gut check for the Lakers in their road miseries, they did not come through but I do expect tonight to be a different situation as last night was an embarrassing loss to a middle of the pack team from the Eastern Conference.

The Timberwolves are a very improved team and it shows in their energy, consistency and overall record. Still, they are under .500 on the season while going 5-6 at home which is a testament for the schedule they have played but also shows that they have a tough time with still with the elite teams in the league. Minnesota is coming off a win over San Antonio but it has played the Spurs well in recent matchups but the same cannot be said for their series against the Lakers.

Los Angeles has won the last 15 meetings against the Timberwolves since March of 2007 and while Los Angeles may seem frail at this point, this is the perfect opportunity for a recovery. The Lakers are just 1-7 on the road but as mentioned from last night, the schedule has not been easy and while last night's loss can be considered inexcusable, it is even more important for a bounce back. The Lakers have covered six of the last seven meetings in Minnesota and add to that here. 10* (811) Los Angeles Lakers

The Lakers snapped a three-game losing streak against the Clippers on Wednesday and head out to try and solve some of their road issues. They are just 1-6 on the road this season and it took overtime to get that lone victory in Utah. In their defense, it has been a tough road schedule with six of those seven games against teams currently in a playoff position. Milwaukee is currently there as well but with a losing record, the Bucks should not even be thrown into the mix.

Milwaukee is coming off a hard fought game last night in Chicago so it may be tough to turn around to play another elite team in the second of two nights. The Bucks have struggled in this situation already this season as they are 0-6 ATS playing with no rest, losing the last five of those outright and by an average of 13.8 ppg. After starting the season 4-0 at home, the Bucks have dropped their last two, both against playoff teams and the only good win was against the Spurs but they are 2-7 on the road this year.

While Milwaukee is playing the second of a back-to-back set, Los Angeles has had some ample rest as this is just its third game in a week which is a big break considering the truncation of this years schedule. This is a game that the Lakers will be out to prove something and that is the ability to take car of business on the road. "We've got to come out firing and hitting and being aggressive on the road and being confident in what we're doing," power forward Pau Gasol said about this upcoming two-game trip.

Milwaukee will be without center Andrew Bogut, who will be sidelined for eight to 12 weeks after fracturing his left ankle during the Bucks' victory Wednesday over the Rockets. That gives the Lakers a significant edge down low with Gasol and Andrew Bynum. The Lakers have won eight of their last 10 meetings in Milwaukee, including three in a row and the Bucks had trouble against the Western Conference, going 13-27 ATS in their last 40 games. 10* (507) Los Angeles Lakers

Portland is coming off its second straight road loss to a losing team to drop to 3-7 on the road for the season after losing at Golden St. on Wednesday. The home floor has been much better for the Blazers as they are 8-1 at the Rose Garden and it remains one of the tougher environments for opponents to come into. They have only lost 12 times at home during the regular season since the start of last season and this year, they are outscoring opponents by over 10 ppg.

The Suns have lost two straight games and after an average 4-4 start to the season, they are 2-7 over their last nine games. This is clearly a team in transition and while there are a couple consistent players on this team, it is made up mostly of journeymen and role players. Things could go from bad to worse as Steve Nash trade rumors are swirling more and more as the Suns will be happy to put 2011-12 aside and start over next year. That kills a team confidence as that confidence is clearly waning already.

The Blazers have been in this situation twice this season where they have lost on the road with a home game up next and those resulted in wins by an average of 16 ppg. One of those earlier road losses was at Phoenix so not only do have a bounceback opportunity but we have a revenge situation and not just any revenge situation. Portland went into Phoenix with a 5-1 record and was handed a 25-point loss, easily its worst loss of the season and its worst loss since a 25-point loss at the Lakers last November.

The Suns two most recent wins came against Boston and New York, two big disappointments in the Eastern Conference and the only quality win of the bunch came against these same Blazers. That does not mean it was a matchup edge, it was just a poor situation for Portland which was coming off a monster win the prior night against the Lakers. This is the most Portland has been favored by over Phoenix in a very long time but I don't think it is going to matter as the gap is getting bigger and bigger. 10* (824) Portland Trailblazers

Orlando put up a franchise low 56 points against the Celtics on Monday and it came back with a big win on Tuesday over Indiana which showed great resolve from a team that certainly hit a season low. Now the Magic are back home for the first time since defeating the Lakers last Friday to move them to 6-2 on the season. After Orlando won the first meeting on Christmas Day last season, the Celtics have won the last three meetings but all of those games took place in Boston.

The win over Orlando was the second straight for Boston and it has been off since then as it go a much needed break. It has been a tough start for the Celtics which are still under .500 but in the weak Eastern Conference, they are sitting in the seventh spot of the standings. Their 7-9 record would put them in 11th place in the Western Conference. Boston is just 2-4 on the road this season and the most trouble part of that is that both of the wins came against 3-15 Washington and neither came easy.

Obviously this is a big game for Orlando as it will be seeking its revenge following that embarrassing loss that took place in Boston. "It's not another game," said Magic forward Glen Davis. "We want to beat them. We want to beat them bad because we didn't show them who we really are. They played a good game." Guard J.J. Redick emphasized that Thursday's matchup is more important than a typical regular-season game. "Yes," he responded. "It absolutely is. We got embarrassed. We got embarrassed. So, yes, it is."

This is the biggest number that Orlando has been favored by over the Celtics in a while but it is justified and I feel it is still on the value side. The Magic were favored by seven points Monday as Boston was without Ray Allen and Rajon Rondo and now it is favored by just a point more at home with Allen still on the shelf. Boston is just 3-16 ATS in its last 19 games after a win by 15 or more points and 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games following a win by 20 or more points. 10* (502) Orlando Magic

This may be a surprising line for some with a team that is five games worse being favored. However the situation is a very good one for the Warriors as they look to turn around what has been a very frustrating start to the season. They are coming off a loss against Memphis on Monday after blowing a 16-point lead against the Grizzlies and the fourth quarter has been their Achilles Heel. After the loss to Memphis, the Warriors are 4-5 when they've entered the fourth quarter leading or tied.

They catch a Blazers team coming off their second straight easy win at home and makes it three games in three night for Portland. The issue isn't so much about playing with no rest as the minutes for the starters has been kept under control but simply hitting the road has been a struggle for Portland which is 3-6 away from home. The Blazers are averaging 104.3 ppg at home which is third best in the NBA but on the road they are averaging only 90.4 ppg, which is in the bottom half of the NBA.

This is a great opportunity for Golden St. to silence some critics and after breaking down the loss to Memphis head coach Mark Jackson said he pulled no punches in pointing out to his players what went wrong. Getting called out can be a very good thing especially when it comes to a lack of hustle and a lack of toughness which is what Jackson referred to. Golden St. is the only team in the NBA not to have won a game within its own conference as it is 0-6 against teams from the west which sets up for motivation.

This is the first meeting this season between the Blazers and Warriors and Golden St. has gotten the best of Portland over the last couple years. It has won six of the last nine meetings, including three of four last season, while covering eight of those games. In both home meetings last season, the Warriors were favored both times so this line is certainly not out of line. Going back further, Golden St. is 11-1 ATS in the last 12 home meetings and the Blazers are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games as a road underdog. 10* (724) Golden St. Warriors

Good teams bounce back from poor efforts and we should see Orlando do that tonight. The Magic played in Boston last night with the Celtics playing without Ray Allen and Rajon Rondo and they got embarrassed in losing by 31 points. Orlando put up only 56 points which is the fewest amount of points scored in team history no thanks to putting in a mere 10 in both the third and fourth quarters. The Magic shot better from three-point land (25 percent) than they did from inside the arc (24.5 percent).

Indiana returns home following a big road win at the Lakers on Sunday and admittedly, we were on the wrong side of that one. The Pacers have now won seven of their last nine games and are currently sitting in second place in the Eastern Conference by percentage points while trailing the Bulls by three games there and in the Central Division. That is rather big in this scenario as the Pacers travel to Chicago for the first meeting with the Bulls this season so a peek ahead is very possible as well.

After winning three of the four meetings with Indiana in 2009-10, Orlando swept all three games from the Pacers last season and that continues as not a lot has changed over the last couple years. Pacers center Roy Hibbert will face his toughest test this season when he tries to slow Magic center Dwight Howard who is coming off one of his worst shooting nights as he was just 4-15 from the floor. That will certainly provide motivation and he has held his own with an average of 20.3 ppg and 14.3 rpg in those six wins.

Howard has recorded a double-double in all but three of his 16 games this season. Orlando is 25-9-1 ATS in its last 35 games following a loss of more than 10 points while going a perfect 4-0 ATS in its four games following a loss this season, winning all four of those games outright, winning those games by an average of 11.5 ppg. Indiana meanwhile is just 8-17 ATS in it last 25 games following a win and only 4-15 ATS in its last 19 games after covering the spread in two or more consecutive games. 10* (503) Orlando Magic

The NBA works in mysterious ways. Oklahoma City was riding a seven-game winning streak heading into Washington and it lost to arguably the worst team in the NBA. Those night happen, even to the best teams, but what also happens with the best teams is that they bounce back and we can expect the Thunder to do that on Saturday. They have had since Wednesday to stew over that loss and while we don

The Knicks are a mess right now but this could be the game that gets them back on track. New York has dropped four straight games after a four-game winning streak right before this. The last victory came against Philadelphia and we were involved with the Knicks in that game but since then, nothing has gone right. The last two losses both came at home which dropped them to 3-4 at home and while this recent skid is not helping momentum, it is helping out with the line value.

Milwaukee is coming off its first home loss of the season now the goal is to grab its first road win of the season as it enters Friday with a 0-8 record on the road. The Bucks haven't been very competitive in those games either as they are just 1-7 ATS with the only cover coming at the Clippers as they stayed within the 10-point spread by losing by six points. Milwaukee is getting outscored by over 10 ppg on the road and it hasn't exactly faced an overly tough slate away from home.

Also adding to the value for New York is this series history as Milwaukee has covered seven straight meetings while winning three of four outright last year including the final two. That sets New York up in a revenge spot but let's face it, it is more concerned about getting out of its funk and with Denver coming in tomorrow and then a four-game roadtrip after that, it needs to take care of business here. Knicks coach Mike D'Antoni is calling his team's poor play a "crisis" and statement like that can actually do wonders.

The Knicks offense has been stuck in neutral but Milwaukee should help solve that as the Bucks have allowed opponents to shoot 48.6 percent over their last five games. New York is coming off a 37.2 percent effort against Phoenix in its last game and it has shot 41.7 percent in its last seven games. The shots just aren't falling and it is something that should come around and Carmelo Anthony is at the front of the line. He needs to take control of this team and it starts on Friday. 10* (808) New York Knicks

The Utah season has been a lot like the season the Sixers have been having. The Jazz have played some very poor teams in the NBA as 75 percent of their wins have come against teams that will either not be in the playoffs or somehow sneak in after another team falters. Also like Philadelphia, Utah has faced some teams that were missing one of if not their best player so they have had the luxury of playing bad teams that were even in worse shape because of a missed pivotal player.

This is the second of a back-to-back set for the Mavericks and baring any significant injury, they should be just fine. They are 4-2 ATS this season playing with no rest so the adjustments have been done well. Heading into Wednesday, Dallas had won seven of its previous nine games following a dreadful 1-4 start where it looked absolutely lost. The new roster had a lot to do with the start and a shortened training camp certainly did not help. Even though it has not shown this year yet, the Mavericks are strong on the road.

Utah

The Spurs got embarrassed last night as they let a 14-point lead at halftime turn into a 22-point loss against Miami as they were outscored 71-35 in the second half. Runs like that are uncommon for the elite teams in the NBA but bounceback are not and I expect San Antonio to rebound tonight. The home/road dichotomy remained unblemished as the Spurs, which are 9-0 at home, dropped to 0-5 on the road with the loss and they are now the only team in the NBA where the road team has yet to win in any of their games.

Orlando is heating up as it has won five straight games but I'm not sold. Three of those came against league bottom-feeders, another came against the reeling Knicks while the other came against Portland, which had just won a home revenge game against the Clippers the previous night. The win over the Bobcats last night was a little tougher than expected and now the Magic get to play their third game in three nights, the first time they have faced this scheduling anomaly this season.

The Spurs certainly have not forgotten their last trip here as they lost to Orlando by 22 points last December. They allowed the Magic to shoot 59.5 percent from the floor which was one of their worst defensive performances of the season. Along with Milwaukee and Washington, the Spurs are the only team in the league that has failed to win on the road yet this season and that is not good company to be in. After last night, there should be some motivation. "We should be embarrassed," head coach Gregg Popovich said.

Dating back to last season and including three playoff defeats at Memphis, the Spurs have lost their last 10 games away from home. That may not seem like a streak we want to get involved in especially knowing they are 0-10 ATS in those games as well but because of this, the value is there. Orlando was favored by just two points in the home meeting last season and now it is up to as much as six in this one. That is what we call an overadjustment. The Spurs snapping that road losing streak would not be a surprise. 10* (705) San Antonio Spurs

Miami is in one of its slumps that we saw last season and had yet to see this year previous to this recent skid. The Heat have lost three straight games and its been the clutch play that has really hurt as two of those losses came in overtime prior to the most recent loss against Denver which was a 13-point setback. All of those came on the road however and Miami heads home for just its fifth home game of the season and its first since January 4th. Dwyane Wade will be unavailable but that should not be a concern here.

San Antonio comes into this game with an undefeated record at home but it is winless on the road with a 0-4 record. Three of those losses were not very close and overall the Spurs are 0-4 ATS on the road. They are certainly going to be up for this game after losing by 30 points in their one trip to Miami last season but that was a revenge game for the Hear which had lost in San Antonio 10 days prior to that, also by 30 points. Motivation will be big on both sides but the edge goes to the home team.

As mentioned, Wade will be out as he is dealing with an ankle sprain and while his absence is costly, there is plenty around him that can pick up the slack. Namely, we are referring to one LeBron James. James said he would treat Wade's absence like he did his time in Cleveland, when he was the Cavaliers main option. He is averaging 29.5 ppg, 8.2 rpg and 7.4 apg yet he is still getting called out so his lack of being able to take over a game. The feeling is that he will be out to prove something on Tuesday.

Miami is 4-0 ATS in its last four games following a double-digit loss and this will be the first instance of that this season. As mentioned, the Spurs have had trouble on the road and it goes back further as they are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 road games and 0-7 ATS in their last seven road games against teams with a winning home record. San Antonio is coming off a win over Phoenix by scoring 102 points and it is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games after scoring 100 or more points. The rout is on here. 10* (506) Miami Heat

These teams played 12 days ago in Chicago and it was ugly. The Bulls defeated the Grizzlies by 40 points and it could have been a lot worse. Chicago outscored the Grizzlies by 13, 13 and 14 points in the first three quarters and once the starters were all out, the Bulls let up on the gas. Chicago shot just 46.4 percent including 38.5 percent from long range which is certainly good but it was the Memphis lack of offense that was the story as it shot just 31 percent including 11.1 percent from behind the arc.

Memphis totaled just 64 points which was easily its lowest output of the season and it was the first time it was held in the 60's since March of 2009 when it scored 66 points in Portland. "It was embarrassing and humiliating," Grizzlies head coach Lionel Hollins said. Don't think for a second that they won't use that result as some motivation on Monday. Memphis has won two straight games and looks for its first three-game winning streak since last April.

The Bulls possess the best record in the NBA at 12-2 and are currently riding a five-game winning streak. While the start has been great, the schedule has had a lot to do with it as they have played some bottom of the barrel teams along the way. The fact that they have the best record in the league and are coming off a 40-point win in the first meeting, should get a lot of action on their side which has been the case already. Yet we are seeing a small line that is getting smaller and the reverse action is a take.

Memphis is 4-2 at home and it has been a very strong team at the FedEx Forum of late as it is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 home games as well as going 14-4 ATS in its last 18 home games against teams with a winning record. The Grizzlies fall into a great situation as well as we play against road teams after two straight games where both teams scored 90 points or less going up against an opponent after scoring 105 points or more. This situation is 71-34 ATS (67.6 percent) since 1996. 10* (704) Memphis Grizzlies

Orlando is coming off a big road win last night at Portland as it shot lights out, hitting 58.6 percent from the floor including 59.3 percent from long range. Seven players scored in double-figures but don't expect a repeat of this tonight. This was its most complete game of the season and for a team that has struggled with consistency, putting together consecutive solid efforts on the offensive end is a stretch. The Magic have gone over in their first two games of this roadtrip which presents value on the under here.

Golden St. played on Tuesday against Miami and the Warriors came away with a win in overtime. That victory snapped a five-game losing streak and despite scoring 111 points, the offense was not very good again as Golden St. shot just 40 percent from the floor and it was held to 96 points in regulation. The Warriors have now gone seven straight games with 96 points or fewer on offense during regulation, averaging only 90 ppg over that stretch. The Miami game went over but it was under at the end of regulation.

The times of Golden St. being a run and gun team have gone as it has averaging just over 189 ppg in its games this season. That is part of the reason we are seeing a total as low as it has taken the linesmakers a while to catch up. The Warriors are 6-3 to the under this season including five of six staying under at home. Orlando is 7-3 to the under this season even though the last two have gone over so it too has been keeping games low, averaging just above 188 ppg in its games.

Because of the recent results, the value is on the low side here and both teams have solid histories in this situation. Orlando is 24-8 to the under in its last 32 games with a total between 180 and 189.5 points including 13-4 to the under on the road. Golden St. meanwhile is 13-3 to the under in its last 16 games coming off a win as a home underdog while going 18-6 to the under in its last 24 home games. This total is over 20 points less than the last meeting and it is this much lower for a reason. 10* Under (509) Orlando Magic/(510) Golden St. Warriors

We lost going against the Sixers last night but that won't stop us from going against them again on Wednesday as the situation sets up nicely. Philadelphia has won six straight games and with the exception of a win over Indiana, the streak is against teams not likely sniffing the playoffs this season. On top of it, the last four wins were all at home and the value comes into play considering that the Sixers covered all six of those games while winning five of those by double-digits.

After a slow start, the Knicks are playing much better as they have three straight wins of their own following a 1-4 beginning of the year. They too have defeated teams that likely won't be seeing the playoffs but part of the value comes from their side as well as they are just 2-7 against the spread which is keeping this number down in a good range. This is an excellent chance for a quality win as those have been few and far between with a victory against the Celtics on Christmas Day the only one to qualify.

This is a rare stretch for the Sixers as it does not happen too often that a team in the NBA can go through a stretch like this with no letdowns. Playing in MSG tonight likely won't cause a letdown but they have had some good fortunes along the way. Last night, Kings leading scorer Marcus Thornton was a late scratch, the game before that, Pacers leading scorer Danny Granger was a late scratch, and the list goes on. They have played six such games with key players missing from the opposition.

The Knicks fall into a great situation that has been a rare one that has not been in play in a few years. Play against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are allowing opponents to shoot 41 percent or less on the season, after three straight games of allowing 42 percent shooting or less. This contrarian situation is 23-5 ATS (82.1 percent) since 1996. while the Knicks have failed to get the cash this season, they are 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games as favorites of fewer than five points. 10* (706) New York Knicks

The home court has been a big advantage in games involving both San Antonio and Milwaukee as the host is a combined 17-0 on the season in their games. Both teams are undefeated at home and winless on the road and even with this, the Spurs come in as road favorites. San Antonio is coming off a loss at Oklahoma city on Sunday which followed three straight home wins and they head back home tomorrow for a revenge game against Houston as they lost the first meeting on the road by 20 points.

The schedule has been a tough one for Milwaukee as it is coming off a five-game roadtrip where it was unable to grab that first road victory of the season. It was a west coast trip on top of it to the competition was tough to begin with but the Bucks are now 0-6 on the road and the toughest thing for them is that four of those losses were by six points or less. They have played only twice at home and while this is their biggest test so far, not having played here in 10 days only adds to the motivation for Milwaukee.

The Bucks have been shorthanded along the way also which has not helped things. Center Andrew Bogut, who left the team on an excused absence before the second game of the trip due to a family issue, is expected back Tuesday and his double-double average will be welcomed back. In the last game against Phoenix, starters Stephen Jackson, Drew Gooden and Brandon Jennings scored a combined 21 points, which was nearly half of their combined season average so expect a rebound from all three here.

The Spurs are shorthanded as well as Manu Ginobili will be out for an extended period and Milwaukee is not upset about that as he averaged 24.5 ppg in the two wins against the Bucks last season. Milwaukee is 18-7 ATS in its last 25 home games following two or more consecutive losses, winning those games outright by an average of 5.6 ppg while going 5-1 ATS in its last six home games following a road trip that last for more than a week. The Spurs are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 road games. 10* (510) Milwaukee Bucks

This line was a late opener due to the status of Michael Beasley and he is likely out which definitely helps the Wizards in this spot. Minnesota is just 2-5 on the season yet it is a road favorite which I feel is the wrong call here. The Timberwolves have had the benefit of the schedule giving them five straight home games and they are the only team in the league that has played fewer than two games on the road thus far. They were competitive against the Bucks in their only road game but the situation is much different now.

Washington is the lone remaining winless team in the NBA and that obviously makes it hungry for a victory. The Wizards have been competitive in a lot of their games though and the schedule has been a tough one with their last four games coming against the Celtics twice, the Magic and the Knicks. The offense has been the biggest liability as they are the fourth lowest scoring team in the league but this is an opportunity to turn that around.

This is the worst start in franchise history for Washington and head coach Flip Saunders said in the Washington Post that his players have been upbeat and positive during practices but understand the frustrations of taking the painful lumps while figuring out how to play the right way. Today offers an opportunity for that. Minnesota is a road favorite for the first time since January of 2009 and despite playing a team that has yet to win a game, this is not the time for it to be back in that role. 10* (802) Washington Wizards

As much as we like taking a look at home underdogs that are playing with same season revenge, we have to buck the Hawks in this spot. Atlanta lost at Chicago on Tuesday by a bucket and while it certainly wants some payback, I don't see how it can get it in this horrendous spot. The Hawks are playing their third game in three nights and their fifth game in six nights so the schedule certainly does not favor a strong effort here. Making matters worse, Atlanta's last two games went into overtime.

The Bulls are coming off a win at Orlando last night and while they are playing in back-to-back mode as well, it is not nearly the same. While Atlanta is playing its fifth game since Monday, the Bulls are playing their fourth game even though it is a fourth game in five night scenario. Chicago now has won six straight games and the best part for them is that five of those were blowout wins and the bench got a lot of minutes meaning the starters have gotten more rest than normal.

The back-to-back overtime games for the Hawks is the bug issue here. Four starters, Joe Johnson, Jeff Teague, John Smith and Al Horford have put in some major minutes the last two days. Respectively they have played 91, 86, 82 and 82 minutes over the last 48 hours and extrapolating that over what the average minutes are we are talking well over two games and close to two and a half games played the last two nights. Young or old, that puts a lot of strain on the legs over that stretch.

Chicago has no issues winning on the road as it is now 5-1 away from home this season and it is no fluke as the Bulls went 26-15 on the road last season which was the second best road record in the Eastern Conference. The Hawks have struggled against such teams as they are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 home games against teams with a winning road percentage greater than .600. The Bulls have won five of the last six meetings going back to last season's playoff series and this one could be one of the easiest ones. 10* (503) Chicago Bulls

We got a win with the Blazers last night against the Lakers as the Rose Garden remains a house of horrors for Los Angeles as it dropped to 6-30 in its last 30 games there including 2-11 in its last 13. The Lakers game is always a big deal for Portland and last night was no exception so coming off a big nationally televised game and hitting the road the next night spells a big letdown for the Blazers. They are off to a great start at 5-1 but this is just their third road game of the season.

Phoenix meanwhile is not off to a great start as it is 2-4 through six games and the problem has been a number of things. The Suns are not shooting the ball well and are allowing too many offensive redounds on the other side and that has hurt the transition game. At 93.6 possessions per game, the Suns' are ranked 24th in the NBA and ahead of only New Orleans in the Western Conference. This comes after being fourth in the NBA in possessions per game a season ago.

In their last game on Wednesday against Dallas, the score was tied after the first quarter but the Suns missed 12 of their first 15 shots in the second and that was it. The failure to execute is when Nash leaves the game is the big issue as Phoenix was outscored by 20 points in the 11:24 that Nash did not play Wednesday. His numbers are way down this season and it can be attributed to the aforementioned lack of a transition game as well as poor shooting on his part. He will get better.

The Blazers were fortunate on Thursday as the Lakers went 0-11 from long range but still managed to outshoot Portland. The Blazers have been very efficient and it was evidenced last night with only four turnovers. Don't expect either of these to happen tonight. This is the first meeting in this series this season and the home team is 5-2 ATS the last seven meetings. Portland is just 1-5 ATS in its last six road games while the Suns are 61-40 ATS in their last 101 games after playing their previous game on the road. 10* (822) Phoenix Suns

The Lakers opened the season 0-2 but they have since turned things around with a 4-1 run to move over .500. Things won't be easy here though as Los Angeles is winless on the road and heads to another tough road environment in the Western Conference. The home court has been a big advantage so far this season as home teams are 53-39-1 ATS which is close to a 58 percent success rate. This is eventually going to even out but because the road team here is a public team, there is no value lost on the home team.

Portland is 4-1 on the year including a perfect 3-0 record at home. The Blazers are coming off a big road win at Oklahoma City and while the situational edge was on their side for that game, it was a victory that can go a long way. Many predicted the Blazers to be a possible sleeper in the Western Conference and that has held true to form so far, even though it is early. Portland is one of only four teams in the NBA to rank in the top 10 in points scored and allowed so it has been a justifiable start.

Portland is a better team this season so the numbers don't lie. Gerald Wallace was a big pickup at the end of last season and is averaging 14.4 ppg on 50 percent shooting while brand new pickup Jamal Crawford is averaging 14.2 ppg off the bench. The Blazers are able to run more and create more shots as they are averaging 99.2 possessions, fourth most in the NBA, which is up from 91.2 from a season ago, dead last in the league. The Blazers have actually been last in the NBA the last three years.

The Blazers' new uptempo offense has scored 100 or more points in four of its first five games for the first time since 1992-93. The Lakers have not had a lot of success in Portland as they are just 6-23 in their last 29 games at the Rose Garden including a 2-10 record over their last 12 games. This is the only meeting in Portland this season so the Blazers will be hungry for the win. The big spotlight games have been solid for Portland as it is 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 Thursday night TNT games. 10* (508) Portland Trailblazers

After winning its season opener, the Bobcats have lost their last three games and their 1-3 record is a big factor for where this line is at. The schedule has certainly played a role as Charlotte have faced the Heat twice and Orlando once over the last six days so the fact that it is 1-3 really comes as no surprise. The last game came on Sunday as the Bobcats went to Miami and were absolutely crushed as they lost by 39 points as they never led and actually were down by 46 points at one stage in the game.

Cleveland is 2-2 to start the year and while much isn't expected of the Cavaliers again this season, the start has to be encouraging. After last season's disaster, anything positive is good sign going forward. However I don't think this line is in the right spot though as the Cavaliers were favored against Toronto and New Jersey by less even though both of those teams are likely going to be worse than the Bobcats this season in my opinion. Early season value is in place here.

The Cavaliers have been living and dying by the three-point shot and that is not a way to survive in this league. They have gone 11-45 (24.4 percent) from long range in their two losses while going 23-38 (60.5 percent) in their two wins. They made 16 three-pointers in their last game against New Jersey which was one shy of a team record and we certainly will not be seeing that type of success here. The Bobcats have one of the worst three-point shooting defenses in the NBA but it is too early to validate it.

These teams squared off here toward the end of last season and Charlotte actually came in as the road favorite and I don't feel enough has changed since then to warrant a five-point line swing. The Bobcats are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games after failing to cover the spread in two or more consecutive games. Also, Charlotte is 4-0 ATS in its last four games as a road underdog of fewer than five points while Cleveland is 1-5 ATS in its last six games as a favorite of fewer than five points. 10* (501) Charlotte Bobcats

After a three-game roadtrip, the Nets are back home to try and halt a four-game losing skid as well as to try and grab its first home win of the season. New Jersey has played only one game at home and that came against Atlanta last Tuesday and it was blown out by 36 points which sets up both line value and motivation for today. The offense has been horrible so far this season and the Nets are coming off a 16-point loss on the road last night at Cleveland, shooting only 38 percent from the floor.

Indiana lost its first game of the season last time out at Detroit on New Year's eve and while we played against the Pacers then, we will be going against them once again here as a bigger road chalk. I consider the Pistons to be the worst tram in the NBA yet Indiana was favored by three points less in that game than it is here. The Pacers have owned this series with seven straight wins as well as seven straight covers but that is not important when they are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games against teams with a losing home record. 10* (708) New Jersey Nets

Minnesota is 0-3 to start the season but this is a very improved team. All three losses have been by four points or fewer including both games at home against Miami and Oklahoma City, arguably the two best teams from their respective conferences. Facing the reigning World Champions only adds to that schedule strength although this one could be considered the easiest of the bunch. The Timberwolves won their first game after just two games a season ago and this is where they break through.

Dallas is feeling the NBA Champion hangover. Or simply they are far from as good as the same team from last season. I think it is a little bit of both as the losses that the Mavericks have encountered have been bigger than once perceived. They have also played a brutal schedule by facing both the Heat and Thunder in addition to Denver, another top team in the Western Conference. Dallas has improved along the way as each game has gotten better but this is a tough opening.

Minnesota lost by just two points to the Heat last time out and it was the bench that carried them. Kevin Love was the only starter to hit double figures in scoring but five reserves all scored 10 or more points and the depth of this team could carry them further than most think. The Timberwolves could be catching Dallas at the right time as the Mavericks are coming off their first win of the season and have a revenge game at home tomorrow against Oklahoma City.

We played against Dallas last Sunday which was part of a system that goes against the defending NBA Champions the first two weeks of the new season. Prior to Dallas. the last nine NBA Champions (Boston, San Antonio, Miami, San Antonio, Detroit, San Antonio and LA Lakers three times) have combined for a 30-52 ATS mark (36.6 percent) through their first two weeks of the following year. Look for the Timberwolves to get their first win of the season tonight. 10* (810) Minnesota Timberwolves

We played against Detroit last night and won as the Pistons were hammered in Boston, trailing by as many as 25 points before a big fourth quarter made the final score more respectable. While it was a play against Detroit Friday, it was more of a play on Boston as the Celtics came into their game 0-3 with that being their first home game. The big factor last night was the inability to hit from long range as the Pistons were just 3-16 (18.8 percent) outside the arc while the defense allowed Boston to shoot 52.2 percent.

Detroit did do some good things last night as they were 14-15 from the free throw line while posting a 2.00 assist/turnover ratio as it committed just nine turnovers. Heading back home for just their second home game of the season, I expect the Pistons to rebound. Detroit is not a good team and it is going to struggle a lot but this NBA season, situational plays are even more important and with both teams playing last night, we give the edge to the home team.

The Pacers are off to a 3-0 start following a win last night at home against lowly Cleveland. Even though the season is very young, Indiana has had a fortunate early season schedule as it has played the 28th toughest schedule in the NBA thus far. One of those wins came against Detroit at home in a game that the Pacers never trailed in and cruised to an easy win. That sets up an early revenge situation for the Pistons who get Charles Villanueva back after serving his three-game suspension.

The public is hammering Indiana but the line has come down showing a significant reverse line move which is a big take for the home team. The home team won all four meetings last season so even when the Pistons were dreadful last year, they were able to take care of business at home. The Pacers are in a very unfavorable situation for the first time this season as they are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games playing with no rest and 3-12 ATS in their last 15 road games playing their third game in four nights. 10* (504) Detroit Pistons

We played on Memphis Wednesday night against the Thunder and it dropped a three-point game in a frustrating loss. The Grizzlies outshot Oklahoma City in that game but the long range shooting was the difference as Memphis was only 2-16 from behind the arc and it made eight fewer three-point shots than Oklahoma City did which ended up being the difference. The Grizzlies are now 0-2 as they suffered an opening loss at San Antonio which was a big revenge situation for the Spurs.

The Rockets came through for us last night as they never trailed in a wire-to-wire cover against the Spurs. While that was a great spot for Houston, that is not the case tonight. The Rockets opening game was on the road at Orlando on Monday and while that game was pretty close throughout, it never should have been. The Magic shot 53 percent from the floor but made it to the free throw line only 10 times and that is where Houston was able to take advantage despite shooting only 43.9 percent for the game.

Despite the loss on Wednesday, Memphis showed a lot of improvement from its opener. "We did a lot of things better than we did against San Antonio," said center Marc Gasol. "The effort was better and the Forum helped us a lot. Turnovers were down. There

We won with San Antonio on Monday as it defeated Memphis in a revenge spot going back to last season's playoffs. The Spurs are coming off another win, this one from last night as they easily took out the Clippers at home. They now head out on the road for the first time this season which now makes them in a very vulnerable spot. I mentioned pm Monday that the shortened season may help San Antonio early but could very well hurt them late because they are an old team. No rest games is also a disadvantage.

Houston has had the luxury of two days off since losing at Orlando in its opening game. The Rockets struggled to hit long range shots as they went just 6-27 (22.2 percent) from behind the arc led by Kevin Martin putting a 0-6 goose egg. Other than that, it was not a bad game for Houston as it put down 85 percent of their free throws, won the battle of the boards and posted a fantastic 2.6 assist/turnover ratio. Now the Rockets are back in Houston for their home opener.

While the Spurs have looked great in their first two games, it is hard for any team in this league to keep up that pace and letdowns are certainly bound to happen. Even Manu Ginobili isn't sure what's going on. "I didn't think that the team was ready to have two games like this," Ginobili said. "We're looking sharp, but I don't want to get too confident. I don't think it's fair or it's true. We still have a long way to go. It just so happened we played two very good games."

The Spurs have not opened a season 3-0 since 2007-08 and I don't expect them to match that here. Houston is a middle of the pack team in the Western Conference as its season win total was right around 33, making it a predicted .500 team. The Rockets are still a very good team at home and going back to last season they are 12-4 ATS when coming off a loss against the spread. They are also 11-2 ATS in their last 13 December home games and they get off to a solid start at home on Thursday. 10* (504) Houston Rockets

We played against Memphis in its season opener against San Antonio as the revenge factor for the Spurs was the key to that play. Now that revenge situation is on the side of the Grizzlies as they will look to avenge their loss in last year's Western Conference Semifinals in seven games to the Thunder. This is also the home opener for Memphis and the FedEx Forum has quietly become a strong home court advantage as the Grizzlies went 30-11 there last season, one of only nine teams to win at least 30 games at home.

Oklahoma City is off to a 2-0 start as it has recorded a home win over Orlando and snuck out a road victory against Minnesota. The Thunder are a very popular pick to represent the Western Conference in the NBA Finals this season and with the Mavericks and Lakers not looking up to par in the early going, it is a definite possibility. Oklahoma City lost to Dallas in the Western Conference Finals a season ago and with a home game against Dallas tomorrow night, we have a lookahead revenge spot for the Thunder.

These are two of the youngest teams in the NBA with the greatest upside and one key piece that is in place for the Grizzlies is Rudy Gay who did not play in the series against Oklahoma City last season and played in his first game on Monday since last February. He had 19 points and 10 boards against the Spurs and he has had great success in his limited action against Oklahoma City as he has averaged 24.3 ppg in his last four games against the Thunder.

Oklahoma City won a triple-overtime game at Memphis in the playoffs last season and that has been the only win in its last six games at the FedEx Forum so that makes the home underdog price that much more appealing. The Grizzlies are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 home games against teams with a road winning percentage great than .600 and they are 23-5 ATS in their last 28 games coming off a road loss. Memphis is also 17-6 ATS in its last 23 games after scoring 85 or fewer points last time out. 10* (712) Memphis Grizzlies

This is one of the best scenarios to go against on opening day. It is banner day in Dallas and we know what that means. The Mavericks will be lowering their 2010-11 NBA Championship banner on Sunday on opening day and playing a basketball game is not at the forefront for the players right now. This is a huge day and with that comes a lot of distractions. Players have been saying that once the banner is lowered and the game starts, they will be focused but that is easier said than done.

Dirk Nowitzki said he can't wait for the banner to be unveiled. "I always said that the banner raising is probably one of the best days of my life -- working for something for so long and being there with my teammates and the coaches and obviously the fans there, it's going to be something special,'' he said. Enough said. Add to that the fact that Miami was the team that fell victim to the Mavericks and we have an even stronger scenario going on Christmas Day in Dallas.

Now let

As expected, after two very low scoring games, we saw Game Five exceed the total by over 30 points as the 'over' easily cashed. Now that the series has seen its highest scoring game, and for the first time a 100-point effort from a team as well, we will be going back the other way as the series shifts back to Miami. The linesmakers made a pretty big adjustment from the Game Five closing number as their hands were tied and expect the public money to come onto the 'over' based on that last game.

Not only did one team surpass the century mark for the first time in this series, both teams did. Neither team could miss from the floor no matter what defense was thrown at them and this was definitely an aberration based on the first four games but we took advantage of it at the right time. Both offenses are strong and they were due for big games but the defenses have been the deciding factor the majority of the time and we will see those units take over back in Miami.

One thing that did not change on Thursday was the pace of the game and it actually slowed down some. Shots were simply going in, especially from long range where Dallas was 13-19 and Miami was 8-20 and those 21 combined three-pointers were one short of the previous two games combined. The pace of the first four games was close to identical as there were 147, 148, 148 and 148 shot attempts but in Game Six, there were just 139 shots hoisted. There is no need to be concerned about the style of play changing.

This is a must win game for Miami which is their its situation like this in the playoffs as it has yet to be on the brink of elimination. That means the defense will be on display as Miami is 8-1 to the 'under' in its last nine games after allowing 100 or more points in its previous game. The first and only time it happened in the playoffs, it allowed 75 point to Chicago next time out. Also, history is back as we play the 'under' where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points in the finals. This situation is 24-5 (82.8%) since 1996. 10* Under (711) Dallas Mavericks/(712) Miami Heat

The 'under' has come in with ease in the first two games of this series in Dallas and that is providing us with excellent value going the other way for Game Five. We are catching the lowest total in this series thus far and based on the bounce, or the zig zag, this game should be able to surpass it. We took the 'under' in Game Three and that easily stayed below the number and the big reason for the play was because of the history of low scoring games in the Finals in this parameter but I feel that finally breaks here.

The two defenses have been playing exceptional as neither offense has been able to get in rhythm at all. The thing is that both teams can score and they do have the capability of putting up big numbers. Both are averaging right around 100 ppg and both are shooting in excess of 47 percent and while we have only seen these percentages once in this series, Game Two, the situation calls for it here. This is the third straight game being played in Dallas and the acclimation will help the offenses of both sides.

LeBron James is coming off a horrible game where he scored just eight points on 3-11 shooting. It is a pretty safe bet that he comes out strong on the offensive end and makes amends. On the other side Dirk Nowitzki carried the Mavericks in their comeback but he made only six of 19 shots and was extremely sick with a sinus infection throughout. He finished with 21 points but it was a below average performance and with this being the pivotal Game Five, breakout games from them will also help the offenses around them.

Miami is 10-1 to the 'over' in its last 11 games after scoring 90 points or less in two straight games. On Tuesday, the Heat shot just 14.3 percent from long range but that helps us here as they are 8-0 to the 'over' this season coming off a game where they shot 20 percent or less of their three-pointers. Dallas meanwhile is 10-1 to the 'over' in its last 11 games after allowing 90 points or fewer in two straight games while going 15-5 to the 'over' in its last 20 games following a win of three points or less. 10* Over (709) Miami Heat/(710) Dallas Mavericks

Dallas lost a tough one on Sunday with a chance to take control of this series. Instead, the teams are back to regular home court status but the Mavericks are pretty much in a must win spot on Tuesday. A loss here means trailing this series 3-1 and it would be highly unlikely to come back from that despite owning a 2-1 edge in game played in Miami this season. Must wins usually come with pressure involved but this Dallas team is playing with confidence and it knows it can tie this series up.

Miami has looked like the dominant team thus far but the Mavericks have not backed down once. The Heat have repeatedly built double-digit cushions, and a late collapse in Game Two is all that's keeping them from the lead that's never been blown in an NBA series. All it takes is a Dallas effort of not falling down by big margins as it has done in the first three games, falling down by 12, 15 and 14 points in those games respectively. It may be easier said than done but the Mavericks can do just that.

The Mavericks are shooting only 42 percent from the field and 38.3 percent from three-point range in this series. Ball movement, or lack thereof, has been a major issue for Dallas and a lot of this is on the shoulder of the role players. Dirk Nowitzki is having a spectacular series but Dallas needs other players to step up in order to give him the opportunity to create. The Mavericks are accustomed to getting a push off the bench from Peja Stojakovic and J.J. Barea and it has not happened. Now is the time.

Dallas falls into a solid situation here as well. This simple yet effective scenario says to play on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are coming off a loss as a favorite, in a game involving two teams with winning percentages between .600 and .750. This situation is 51-19 ATS (72.9 percent) since 1996. The Mavericks have responded well after a defeat as they are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a loss. This includes a perfect 4-0 so far in the playoffs. 10* (708) Dallas Mavericks

Miami is saying the right things. The Heat blew a 15-point lead with seven minutes left on Thursday to lose Game Two and send the series to Dallas tied at one game each instead of being up 2-0. They are saying they have already let it go and are past it but I am not so sure about that. They can talk about all of the confidence they think they have but until they prove otherwise, that was a deflating loss to get over. Miami has already proven this season it has had a hard time coming back from similar situations.

Miami was stung in three occasions during the regular season that are hard to forget. The Heat blew a 19-point second-half lead against Jazz in November, they blew a 15-point lead in a loss to the Knicks in late February and they blew a 24-point lead against the Magic in early March. In all three cases, the Heat failed to bounce back in their next game as they lost the following game outright in all three instances and two of those games the next time out took place at home.

While the Heat are talking about confidence, it is Dallas that should be brimming with confidence. The Mavericks overcame a huge deficit and they were staring at a 2-0 hole in this series but instead they are tied with the next three games taking place at home and while wrapping up the series there will be unlikely, grabbing a win here will put a monumental amount of pressure on Miami. There is some desperation in play as momentum shifts to the Mavericks.

Miami is 3-13 ATS this season following a loss by six points or fewer while Dallas has dominated through the playoffs, carrying a 14-3 ATS record. Also, the Mavericks are 18-6 ATS this season when the line is between +3 and -3 and they are on a 10-2 ATS run as a favorite. Miami meanwhile has not only not responded from losses but it is just 5-14 ATS in its last 19 games playing on two days rest. Dallas has won 11 of the last 12 meetings and there is no reason to think it cannot keep that up. 10* (706) Dallas Mavericks

We played the 'over' in Game Two based on value because of the line adjustment from the first game. Now we will go back with the 'under' based on history and more appropriate adjustments that will be made by both teams. The comeback from Dallas on Thursday was a big one for the series and the mentality for both teams which sends this one into an even more defensive-geared situation. Based on history, we should see yet another low scoring game.

Based on the simple bump theory, both teams should have better efforts defensively. In Game One, Miami shot 38.8 percent from the floor while Dallas shot 37.3 percent. In Game Two, Miami hit 46.6 percent from the field while Dallas hit 48 percent. Those differences are huge because the teams combined for 147 shots in Game One and 148 shots in Game Two and if they stay in that same range with attempts in Game Three and the defense brings those shooting percentages down, it stays way 'under'.

I mentioned that there would be an increase in fast break points in Game Two after the teams combined for 19 in the first game and that was the case as they combined for 29 fast break points on Thursday. Those possessions obviously speed up the game and lead to more possessions and points but we should see that number come back down here based on the law of averages. Since 1985 when the series is tied 1-1, the Game Three winner has won the championship all 11 times and that means defense is the key.

History shows this situation to be very low scoring as we play the 'under' in NBA Finals games when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points. This situation is 22-4 (84.6 percent) since 1996 and is a perfect 5-0 over the last five instances when the closing O/U is in that range. The average score overall is 176.2 ppg in those 26 games. Also, Miami is 18-7 to the 'under' in its last 25 road games when the total is between 185 and 189.5 and 5-1 to the 'under' in its last six games as an underdog. 10* Under (705) Miami Heat/(706) Dallas Mavericks

Game One of this series stayed well 'under' the total, covering by more than 12 points, but Game Two adjustments will be made by the offenses to try and get something going. Both teams shot poorly on Tuesday as Dallas shot 37.3 percent while Miami shot just 38.8 percent and there was a total of only 19 fast break points. Dallas and Oklahoma City averaged 27 fast break points in the last series while Miami and Chicago also averaged 27 fast break points so we should see an increase this time around.

We are catching some solid value here as well as this total has dropped by more than a bucket from the closing O/U from Game One. We have used the zig zag with a lot totals during the postseason because of the adjustments made based on the previous game and a lot of these have come in the way we expected. Both regular season meetings between the Mavericks and Heat went 'over' the total as they scored 201 and 194 points in those games. Also, both Dallas and Miami are 5-3 to the 'over' in their last eight games.

Miami is showing that it is the best defensive team in the NBA as it completely shut down Chicago and did a number on Dallas to open the Finals. The Mavericks lost an eight-point lead in the third quarter as they were held to just 10 points in the final 10 minutes of that period. Prior to that, the Mavericks made six 3-pointers in the first half and just seven shots from inside the arc. They are a much stronger team on offense than what was on display as for the season, they are averaging exactly 100 ppg.

Miami is 14-7 to the 'over' after having won 20 or more of their last 25 games this season while Dallas is 21-11 to the 'over' after having won 15 or more of their last 20 games this season. The 'over' is 6-1 in Miami's last seven home games and it is 16-7 to the 'over' in its last 23 home games after having won five or six of their last seven games this season. This has been a good total for Dallas to get in a high scoring game as it is 19-10 to the 'over' this year when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points. 10* Over (703) Dallas Mavericks/(704) Miami Heat

Many expected the Heat to be in this position at the start of the season and after a sluggish and inconsistent start, they are playing their best basketball of the season. Miami has cruised in all three playoff series, winning 4-1 in each of those so it really has not been tested. The Heat were supposed to be challenged by both Boston and Chicago, two of the best defenses in the NBA, but neither were able to get the job done. Miami thus is a pretty large favorite for this first game.

Dallas made a very similar run through the Western Conference as only one series went more than five games, which happened to be the first series against Portland. The Mavericks then swept the defending champion Lakers and took out Oklahoma City in five games so it can be argued that Dallas is playing just as good, if not better, right now. The Mavericks are just one game worse with their overall record but have played a much tougher schedule and do in fact have a better record against the top ten in the NBA.

The Mavericks won both regular season meetings which is a sign of a matchup advantage even though those were early in the season. The Miami big three of LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh averaged 21.7 ppg in the two regular season meetings with none of those three scoring fewer than 19 points in any of those games so the Mavericks were able to win both meetings despite those players all playing well on both occasions. Dallas has actually won 10 straight since the 2006 Finals collapse.

Dallas finished the regular season tied with Miami with the best road record in the league so both teams possess the game to nullify the opponents home court edge. The Mavericks are 5-2 o the road during the postseason and they are now 17-4 ATS this season in their 21 road games as underdogs of six points or fewer. Miami meanwhile is just 2-11 ATS in its last 13 home games after covering three or more consecutive games so that gives us exactly the value we are looking for. 10* (701) Dallas Mavericks

Miami has won and covered three straight games to take a commanding 3-1 lead in the Eastern Conference Finals but this is the spot we should see Chicago play its best basketball since the opener when it rolled. The Bulls backs are against the wall and playing at home again puts them in a position where they can play loose and actually put the pressure on the Heat. A must win situation usually creates line value the other way but the Bulls are favored right where they should be based on the venue change.

Game Four was a tough one for the Bulls as they had every chance to pull out the win and it is even tougher on Derrick Rose. Even though the Bulls never would have been in position to steal the last game if not for Rose, shooting 8 of 27 with seven turnovers in a must-win game indeed makes this the hardest one for him to forget. He has had three of his four lowest scoring games in the playoffs over the last three games and to no surprise, Chicago lost all three of those games. Look for a bust out game from him here.

The Bulls maybe due for some home cooking here as even though they managed a 44-24 edge in points in the paint, the Heat enjoyed a 38-22 advantage in free throw attempts and made 15 more from the line overall. That is a big disparity when it comes to teams that are closely matched and it begs the question of will there be retribution for Game Five? The home team has had the edge in free throw attempts in all four games with the last game being the widest margin so that trend should continue here.

As much as these games are decided by the players, do not be surprised to see the referees give some back. Especially knowing that the NBA wants this huge TV draw to continue at least another game heading into the weekend. Situationally we play on home favorites that are playing with triple revenge, in a game involving two teams with winning percentages between .600 and .750. This situation is 83-44 (65.4 percent) since 1996. The Bulls keep the series alive for at least one more game. 10* (520) Chicago Bulls

The last total we played in this series won as the 'under' came in by 18.5 points in Game Three on Saturday. The game on Monday went 'over' the closing total of 196 by a large amount thanks to overtime although it would have gone 'over' in regulation time as well. That has forced the linesmakers to move this total up once again as it has increased by over a bucket and that is giving us some solid value going the other way once again. We are seeing roughly the same total that stayed 'under' in Game Three.

After a high scoring first half in Game Four, Dallas and Oklahoma City combined for just 89 points in the second half and that was the fourth half in the last three games that has stayed under 100 points and that is the key number we are looking for. Actually those halves all had 92 points or less so they have shown the ability to not only go low but go way low. With the series shifting back to Dallas and Oklahoma St. in a must win spot, will see an emphasis once again on the defensive end.

Offensively, the Thunder started strong and finished weak on Game Four. It seemed like they were ready to roll over their opponent right out of the gate, starting the game on a blistering tear making their first nine shots to jump out to a 18-8 lead in just over four minutes of play. They followed it up in the second quarter making their first 10 shots and entered halftime shooting an astounding 58-percent from the field. That quickly vanished and while defense will be the emphasis, the offense should come out slow again as well.

The last three games have alternated between the 'over' and 'under' and the zig zag theory with totals has held pretty true to form throughout the postseason. We will see it continue in this series as well. The 'under' is 9-3-1 in the Mavericks last 13 games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game while the 'under' is 6-2 in the Thunders last eight games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. These streaks get extended once again. 10* Under (517) Oklahoma City Thunder/(518) Dallas Mavericks

This is a big game for both sides. A Miami win can give the Heat a 3-1 lead heading back to Chicago and while not insurmountable, it will be tough for the Bulls to come back. A Chicago win ties the series and gives the Bulls their home court edge back. This is considered a crucial turning point game and in crucial games, the team with more experience has the edge. Miami has that experience as it has shown throughout the entire playoffs thus far.

Josh Robbins of the Orlando Sentinel summed it up perfectly. In Game Three, Chicago slowed LeBron James and Dwyane Wade, holding them to 12-30 shooting combined. But in the NBA, you can't take away something without leaving opportunities somewhere else. Chris Bosh took advantage of that, scoring 34 points. Miami shot over 50 percent from the floor which was just the 11th time all season the Bulls have allowed 50 percent or more. They are 2-9 in those games so a repeat of that means another Miami win.

The lack of scoring offered by the Bulls has been telling as there is simply not enough creativity in the approach to this point. The point about the Bulls offense has just as much to do with the Miami defense as well. Scoring 15 points in the first quarter, 41.6 percent shooting for the game, 13 turnovers to 15 assists and the struggle all night by Derrick Rose to create something is a testament to the strength of the Heat defense. Chicago needs another shooter to spread the floor against this defense and it does not have it.

Chicago has been strong following a loss this season but Miami has been just as strong following a win. The Heat also fall into an ideal situation based on this momentum. Play on home favorites with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 when leading in a playoff series and playing a team with a winning record. This situation is 53-23 ATS (69.7 percent) over the last 5 seasons. This goes against the zig-zag but it looks at this point Chicago will not have the ability to make the necessary adjustments. 10* (516) Miami Heat

It is desperation time for Oklahoma City and this is a team that should be able to flourish in that role. After falling behind 2-1 in the Memphis series, the Thunder reached down deep and grabbed Game Four in overtime which avoided a 3-1 series deficit. The same goal is on the table here as they look to avoid going down 3-1 with the series shirting back to Dallas in Game Five. It is certainly a must win spot and for the linesmakers to only move this line a point form the Game Three closer signifies value.

Oklahoma City scored only 12 points in the first quarter in Game Three, and Dallas led by as many as 23 points in the first half behind balanced scoring and patient passing. The Thunder never led in that game and they were held to just nine fast break points but there was a glimmer of a team that never gave up. The Thunder cut the lead all the way down to four points from 22 in the second half but the Mavericks were able to hit clutch shots down the stretch to hold on. A quicker start for Oklahoma City is obviously the key.

The Thunder shot a mere 36.5 percent including 5.9 percent from long range (1-17) after shooting 51.4 percent and 41.2 percent respectively in the first two games of this series. Dallas made a pledge to play better defense and while it definitely did, we are not going to see a second straight performance like that from either side. The Thunder's misfirings put them in the NBA's playoff futility record book. According to the Elias Sports Bureau, they tied the 2003 Suns for the second-worst three-point percentage in a playoff game.

Oklahoma City is 18-7 ATS in its last 25 games following a home loss while going 19-9 ATS in its last 28 games following an outright loss as a favorite. Going back further, the Thunder are 74-40 in their last 114 games following a loss of any kind so adjustments have been positive. Situationally, we play on teams averaging 102 or more ppg going up against teams averaging between 98 and 102 ppg, after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half. This situation is 47-22 ATS (68.1 percent) since 1996. 10* (514) Oklahoma City Thunder

Miami had a big win in Game Two of this series as it not only avoided a 0-2 deficit but it also gained home court advantage through the rest of this series. The Heat are a team that are not going to let that pass. We won with the Heat in that game as they won by double-digits as underdogs and now heading home, I expect more of the same. It took a while for this team to come together but we have witnessed a huge transformation as the chemistry has come around as they have gone 24-6 over their last 30 games.

The Bulls were one of the best home teams in the NBA during the regular season and they actually had the best home record in the Eastern Conference. However, hitting the road has not been as successful and even though they are 12 games over .500 in the regular season and postseason combined, the differences are glaring. The biggest reason for the big dropoff is the fact that the offense has basically one go-to guy in Derrick Rose and that is it and playing in a hostile environment will once again hurt.

Chicago has not lost back-to-back games in three and a half months which is no doubt impressive but only once has it lost at home and won on the next game on the road and that away game happened to come against Minnesota, the worst team during the regular season in the NBA. Coming off a 34.1 percent shooting performance in Game Two, I just cannot see how the Bulls can bounce back from that on the road against the third toughest home defense in the NBA.

There has been talk about Miami not being a clutch team but during the playoffs, it is safe to say the Heat have erased that moniker. The Heat have ended playoff wins with runs of 9-2, 22-17 and 5-0 against the 76ers, 22-11, 12-4 and 10-0 against Boston and 12-2 against Chicago which signifies clutch in my opinion. As far as a great situation, we play against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are revenging a loss as a favorite, playing with three or more days rest. This situation is 51-26 ATS (66.2 percent) since 1996. 10* (512) Miami Heat

We won with the 'over' in Game One of this series with a reasonable closing number of 194.5. We missed the 'under' in Game Two but will go back with it here. Because of the high scoring game that took place in the first two games, the linesmakers need to keep this number high and it remains five points higher than the opener. Because of that high scoring Game One, they were forced to make a move this much based on the fact the majority of action will be on the 'over' as will be the case again here.

The 'over' has come in four of the five meetings this season but one of those 'overs' would actually have come in 'under' the Game Two total while the one game that did finish 'under', the closing total was right in line with this one. We used a lot of zig-zag scenarios, with totals and not sides, in the first two rounds of the playoffs and the majority of those ended up working out. The Game Two 'under' nearly panned out despite three quarters well into the 50's.

Oklahoma City shot lights out in Game Two, hitting 55.7 percent of its shots. It took only 70 shots however and in the first two games, the teams are averaging just over 73 attempts per game. During the regular season, the Thunder averaged 80.6 shots per game while the Mavericks averaged 78.8 shots per game so these two teams are putting together lengthier possessions in the postseason and if not for the hot shooting by one side in the first two games, we would have seen much lower scoring games.

The 'under' is 8-3-1 in the Mavericks last 12 games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game while the 'under' is 5-2 in the Thunders last seven games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. Also we play the 'under' with road teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 that are revenging a straight up loss as a favorite, with a winning percentage between .600 and .750. This situation is 41-17 (70.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* Under (509) Dallas Mavericks/(510) Oklahoma City Thunder

Dallas won and covered for us last night and we are catching a similar number for Thursday as we go the other way. The Mavericks showed that the time off did exactly as we expected as they came out a little slow and rusty but the rested bodies took over and controlled the final three quarters. After scoring 122 points against the Lakers to close that series, Dallas put up 121 points last night behind the unconscious effort from Dirk Nowitzki, who scored 48 points on 12-15 shooting and 24-24 from the free throw line.

Oklahoma City did not play a bad game last night and it actually made a comeback in the fourth quarter before the Mavericks were able to pull away. The Thunder shot 47.2 percent from the floor as well as going 37-43 from the free throw line. Normally, this is good enough for a win but they ran into a buzzsaw on Tuesday that they could not overcome. Oklahoma City will not have to make many adjustments with the exception of defense on Nowitzki but even then, it is unlikely he will go off like that again.

This is a classic example of the zig-zag theory. We did not use this much in the first couple rounds because of the mismatches of the teams but now that there is more parity, the zig-zag or bounceback becomes more playable. There is a big difference between good and bad teams when playing with a sense of urgency and simply put, the Thunder are a very good team. We get additional leeway as well as we catch a decent sized number and while they can easily win, we have room to play with for the cover.

Because of the Dallas win and the run it has had, public action will again be on the home team. The Mavericks have yet to lose against the number in the postseason, going 10-0-1 ATS, 11-0 ATS for some, and going back to the regular season, they are 14-0-1 ATS, 15-0 ATS for some. This provides contrarian value. The Mavericks are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game while the Thunder are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. 10* (507) Oklahoma City Thunder

We won with the 'over' in Game One of this series with a reasonable closing number of 194.5. Because of the high scoring game that took place, 233 points put on the board, the linesmakers needed to make a huge adjustment for Game Two and this current number is five points higher than the opener. Because of that high scoring Game One, they were forced to make a move this much based on the fact the majority of action will be on the 'over'. There is no doubt it is too big of a move however.

The 'over' has come in three of the four meetings this season but one of those 'overs' would actually have come in 'under' the Game Two total while the one game that did finish 'under', the closing total was right in line with this one. We used a lot of zig-zag scenarios in the first two rounds of the playoffs and the majority of those ended up working out. The big exception was the Atlanta/Orlando series but other than that, we saw a lot of games go back and forth and that was due to total adjustments made.

Speaking of adjustments, we will see some come Game Two from both sides. Namely the defensive side of things. Both teams were able to have a lot of success on the offensive end as three of the four quarters saw 56, 66 and 64 points scored. While both teams shot well, we did not see a ton of attempts. Oklahoma City took only 72 shots while Dallas took only 73 shots and the difference was that the two teams combined for 79 free throw attempts, making 71 of those. We are unlikely to see that again in Game Two.

The 'under' is 8-2-1 in the Mavericks last 11 games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game while the 'under' is 5-1 in the Thunders last six games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. The recent history between the two teams will signal another high scoring game however, there is a big difference and it goes back to the adjustments that will be made as those other meetings did not occur in consecutive games, as this one will. 10* Under (507) Oklahoma City Thunder/(508) Dallas Mavericks

Chicago took care of Miami in Game One as expected and now that the Bulls have a 4-0 record against the Heat and the line is the same from Game One, the public is all over the home team once again. We expected Chicago to take the opener but it was a surprise that it was able to pull away and dominate the way it did in the second half. It is unlikely it will happen again however, especially on the offensive side as the 103 points in Game One was only the third time they have gone over 100 points in the postseason.

If effort is the simple answer, then Game One was essentially a wake-up call for the Heat. You can say that the Heat's offense looked awful against the Bulls, but then again, that's not the first time that's happened. The Heat offense has a way of recovering, starting with LeBron James and Dwyane Wade playing more like themselves. The Heat did lose all three regular season meetings as well but those games could have gone either way as they all came down to the final possessions.

As mentioned, the Bulls have eclipsed 100 points only three times in the postseason and not in back-to-back games. Conversely, the Heat had not allowed 100 or more points in the playoffs prior to Sunday and you know they will be taking that one personally. Miami still allowed a very respectable 43.7 percent shooting and it actually outshot the Bulls which is rare for a team to accomplish that and lose by as much as it did. Miami was outscored by 21 points from long range which made the big difference.

This is a classic example of the zig-zag theory. We did not use this much in the first couple rounds because of the mismatches of the teams but now that there is more parity, the zig-zag or bounceback becomes more playable. There is a big difference between good and bad teams when playing with a sense of urgency and underdogs coming off a bad blowout are more apt to avoid it again as they can make the proper adjustments. In this case, Miami can do that similar to the way it did it in Boston after its 16-point loss. 10* (505) Miami Heat

The Mavericks will have had 10 days off since their last game while the Thunder will be off for just a day so we need to figure out which team it benefits more. In this case I think it is a wash. Dallas is the older team and the benefit of sweeping the Lakers early was to rest and recuperate while the Thunder are much younger and would likely prefer to keep going with no time off. The difference now is the mental aspect as Oklahoma City is coming off a mentally grueling seven-game series so the quick turnaround will be tough.

With as long of a break as the Mavericks will get, there will be, without a doubt, some rhythm will be lost. While there's always the concern that nine days between games can take the sheen off of a team, the Mavericks never pass up rest because they have a 38-year-old point guard in Jason Kidd and three other starters, plus their sixth man, who are older than 30. The Mavericks' wisdom will be one of the strengths against the Thunder's youth and athleticism.

The Mavericks have every right to believe it is all about them going into the conference finals and they have gotten better as the playoffs have gone on. And they are doing it with great balance on offense and a strong defense. Of the four teams left in the playoffs, the Mavericks are the lone outfit yet to surrender 100 points in a game and they are allowing an average of just 88.2 ppg. On the other side, are blowing away the field by shooting 47 percent including 41.9 percent from long range.

Dallas and Oklahoma City met three times this season with the road team taking all three games. In the meeting in Dallas, the Thunder were fortunate to take on the Mavericks without Dirk Nowitzki in the lineup so the win there can be tossed out the door. Play on home teams after successfully covering the spread in four or more consecutive games, in a game involving two teams with winning percentages between .600 and .750. This situation is 32-10 ATS (76.2 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (504) Dallas Mavericks

Miami is the favorite in this series despite being a lower seed and not having home court advantage in this series. This is completely wrong in my opinion as the Heat, while playing their best basketball of the season, are the number two seed for a reason. That reason is because the Bulls deserve being the number one seed in the Eastern Conference following as spectacular season. Included in the Bulls 62 regular season wins were three against Miami, leading to a regular season 3-0 sweep.

Home court advantage plays a big role in the playoffs and with two very strong road teams in this series, holding serve on the home court will be vital. Chicago went an NBA best 36-5 at home this regular season and backed that up with a 5-1 record at home through the first two rounds of the playoffs. Chicago possesses the best scoring margin in the league as it is outscoring opponents by 10.1 ppg on its home floor. The Bulls have stepped it up all season against the elite teams, going 16-7 against the NBA's top ten.

Conversely, the Heat are just 13-15 this season against teams ranked in the top ten and they are just 10 games over .500 against teams ranked within the top 16 while the Bulls are 17 games over .500 against the top 16. Despite being the lower seed, the pressure is on Miami in this series as it came in with the highest of expectations and those remain. Chicago is going about this the right way as it is going with the "Us against the world" attitude as the Bulls will use that underdog card as a motivator as well.

It is about defense and the Bulls led the league in opponents' field-goal-percentage and opponents' three-point percentage as well finishing second to the Celtics in average ppg. They can thank head coach Tom Thibodeau, who game-planned to eliminate LeBron James in the 2008 Eastern Conference semifinals when the former worked for the Celtics and the latter played for the Cavaliers. Chicago is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 home games when playing against teams with a winning percentage of .700 or better. 10* (502) Chicago Bulls

Because of the last two games, we are getting a sensational number with this total in the final game of this series. It is actually the lowest total of the series thus far and the two most recent games that were low scoring are completely affecting it. In my opinion, it has come down way too much as the last two games are not only what should be taken into consideration. Three of the first four games in this series went 'over', all of which had higher totals than what we are seeing on Sunday.

All four of the regular season meetings and the first two games of this playoff series went 'over' and most of those went 'over' rather comfortably. The Game Five result was the first and the Game six result was the second in all 10 meetings between Oklahoma City and Memphis that at least one team didn't score 100 or more points. There was good value on the Game Six 'over' simply because of that but now that it has occurred two times in a row, the value is even greater.

Oklahoma St. played incredible defense in Game Five which was an aberration or a case of Memphis missing shots. In Game Six, it was the Thunder offense that was dismal. After making his first two shots of the game, Kevin Durant finished the night shooting 3-14 from the field for just 11 points. What was worse was Durant taking nine 3-pointers in the game and making only one. Now that both of those occurrences have taken place, we are unlikely to see either happening again meaning more offense on both sides.

Oklahoma St. fits the mold perfectly for it to make this one a high scoring affair. The Thunder are 8-1 to the 'over' after a loss by 10 points or more this season and an even more impressive 16-3 to the 'over' after scoring 85 points or less over the last three seasons, averaging 202.4 ppg in those 18 games. Meanwhile Memphis is 5-0 to the 'over' in its last five games following a win while going 7-2 to the 'over' in its last nine games as an underdog between 5.0 and 10.5 points. 10* Over (753) Memphis Grizzlies/(754) Oklahoma City Thunder

The Thunder, whose backs were in the corner at one point in this series, are showing that they are the stronger team and we will see a result similar to what we saw last night with the Bulls which went on the road to close out their series with Atlanta. Oklahoma City has had the upper hand since Memphis picked it apart in the series opener and it hit the apex in Game Five with a 27-point victory. The Thunder took one of two in Memphis last weekend so winning here is not a problem.

Fatigue played a huge role in Game Five and will do so again in Game six. "I don't know if fatigue was a factor," Thunder coach Scott Brooks said. "It was not on our end." He was right. The Thunder had the advantage of young legs coming off the triple-overtime Game Four in Memphis. Now the Thunder have the advantage of having rested its starting lineup in Game Five Kevin Durant played 31 minutes, Russell Westbrook played 25, Kendrick Perkins played 23, Serge Ibaka played 21 and Thabo Sefolosha 16.

Memphis is playing behind for the first time in this series and in the postseason so how it reacts is a big question mark. Playing at home helps but the Grizzlies are feeling the pressure for the first time. The inside game will be the deciding factor once again and Oklahoma City will have that edge based on the rest. The team that has scored more points inside the paint has won each game, and the Thunder outrebounded the Grizzlies 50-33 Wednesday night.

Oklahoma City falls into a sensational league-wide situation based on season stats and the result from Wednesday. Play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are averaging 102 or more ppg going up against teams that are allowing between 92 and 98 ppg, after a win by 20 points or more. This situation is 31-8 ATS (79.5 percent) since 1996. The Thunder have responded very well this season after those type of victories as they are 7-0 ATS this season following a win by 20 or more points. 10* (747) Oklahoma City Thunder

After the last game of this series went 'under' I would normally be taking a hard look at the 'over' for this game but there are important factors that are signaling another low scoring game. First and foremost, this is a must win game for Atlanta and the Hawks are not a strong team offensively as they are averaging only 94.1 ppg on the season which is third lowest in the NBA. That means in order for Atlanta to force a Game Seven. It is going to have to get it done with defense and it should be up to the challenge.

With the last game not surpassing the number, the total tends to be adjusted next time out and while that is the case here, it is a rather small adjustment. The total currently is at 179 in a few places which is the highest and surprisingly, it is the highest of the three games that have been played in Atlanta. Certainly not by much but considering the first two games of this series in Atlanta went 'over' one would think this number would be adjusted further to take those games into account but it has not.

The Bulls defense has really stepped things up. They have allowed 83 points or fewer in three of the first games in this series and they have won all three of those. They allowed 103 and 100 points in the other two games and those ended up as losses so in order for Chicago to avoid a Game Seven, even though it would be at home, it must clamp down on defense once again. The last game of this series stayed 'under' by a bucket but it could have been a lot more as it was skewed by a 53-point first quarter.

Even though the first two games of this series in Atlanta went 'over', the Hawks are 7-2 to the 'under' in their last nine home games against teams with a winning road record and the 'under' is 19-6 in their last 25 games as a home underdog. Chicago is 22-10 to the 'under' this season after allowing 85 or fewer points and it is 34-18 to the 'under' in its last 42 games coming off an 'under' in its previous game. Playing with a day of rest, the Bulls are on a 36-16 'under' run while the Hawks are on an 8-2 'under' run. 10* Under (741) Chicago Bulls/(742) Atlanta Hawks

The last game finished with 192 points in regulation and had it not gone into overtime, the 'under' would have come in. People now see the 256 total points scored and they will surely be all over a high scoring game once again. Also, the Game Four scoring has skewed the overall averages, inflating them to the point where they cannot be looked at. Even the Game Three scoring is skewed because of the overtime even though that game stayed below the total.

With the 'over' hitting on Monday, that made it eight of the last nine meetings the 'over' has hit, including seven of eight played this season. Every one of those games has seen each team score at least 100 points and the linesmakers have had no choice but to boost this number up because of the large amount of action that will continue to come in on the 'over'. The total has gone up three points since the closing O/U from Game One and that is a big jump, even with what we have seen witnessed in this season series thus far.

We played the 'under' in Game Two and all things considered, it was a bad break that it did not hit as going into the fourth quarter, only 144 points were on the board but the teams erupted for 69 points in the final period which carried it 'over'. What this tells us is that three straight games in this series could easily have gone 'under' yet two of the three went 'over'. Contrarian thinking is saying that despite the breaks going for the high scoring games, the 'under' is the play once again here.

This is part of the zig zag theory that is based on totals as we go against the outcome of the previous game and we also have a contrarian situations that comes into play based on recent results. Oklahoma City is 10-1 to the 'under' in its last 11 home games after allowing 100 or more points in four straight games. Also, the 'under' is 5-0 in Oklahoma City's last five games after it scored 125 or more points in its previous game so it has not been a team that has carried offensive momentum forward. 10* Under (739) Memphis Grizzlies/(740) Oklahoma City Thunder

With the series heading back to Chicago, I expect to see a very low scoring game in this pivotal Game Five. The 'over' came through in both games in Atlanta and because of that, we are getting value in the 'under' for this game. The highest scoring game of the series was in Game One and the linesmakers were forced to push the number up in Game Two where the 'under' was successfully played. This is a similar situation where they had to make an adjustment and it is simply too much.

This is the highest total of the series so far and a lot of that has to do with the fact that three of the four games have gone 'over'. This has been a rarity for the Hawks as they went 'under' in five straight games against Orlando in their last series and going back further they were 13-3 to the 'under' in their previous 16 games. This is because of a defense that is underrated as Atlanta has held its opponents to fewer than 100 points in 16 of its last 20 games, including 10 games of fewer than 90 points.

The Bulls defense meanwhile is one of the best in the NBA. After allowing the lowest field goal percentage in the NBA during the regular season. Chicago is allowing just 42.9 percent from the floor during the playoffs which is actually lower than its regular season percentage allowed. At home the Bulls defense is even better. After allowing 103 points in Game One, Chicago responded with just 73 points allowed in Game Two and after giving up 100 points in Game Four, I expect a very similar outcome here.

The Bulls have tightened their games up following a big loss as they are 10-1 to the 'under' revenging a loss of 10 points or more this season including a perfect 7-0 to the 'under' revenging a double-digit road loss while Atlanta is 5-0 to the 'under' in its last five games after a double-digit win. The Hawks meanwhile are 20-8 to the 'under' in their last 28 games as a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 points and 22-9 to the 'under' in its 31 games this season against teams with a winning record. 10* Under (733) Atlanta Hawks/(734) Chicago Bulls

It is going to be extremely tough for the Thunder to regroup on Monday following Saturday's demoralizing loss. They blew a 16-point lead against Memphis and ended up losing in overtime. After hearing the press conferences from players and coaches after the game, it is clear that Oklahoma City is in trouble. This is a young team and this is no doubt the toughest defeat these players have had to endure. Success in the NBA is being able to rejuvenate following such losses and I cannot see Oklahoma St. doing that.

To Oklahoma City's credit, it was the better team for three quarters Saturday and looking at the overall picture, it still may be considered the better team even though it is down 2-1 with a must win situation on tap here. However, the Thunder were 7-30 in the fourth quarter and overtime, had nearly as many turnovers (six) as field goals (seven) in the fourth quarter and overtime and scored just 17 points in the final 17 minutes. That is a collapse even some veteran teams may have a tough time recovering from.

While it can be argued the Thunder lost the game, Memphis has to be given credit for not giving up, coming back and taking control of the series. A lot of the credit can be given to the defense as Memphis it locked down when needed. According to Darnell Mayberry from Thunder Rumblings, Durant had just four points on 2-10 shooting in the fourth quarter and overtime. He came into the game leading all players in the NBA Playoffs with just over 10 points on over 60 percent shooting in the fourth quarter.

As far as line value goes, we are getting the same number as Game Three which is a surprise as this line should be higher based on the zig zag and the must win for the Thunder. Memphis is 20-9 ATS in its 29 games in the second half of the season against winning teams while going 14-4 ATS in its 18 games in the second half of the season against teams outscoring opponents by three or more ppg. Last but not least, the Grizzlies are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games as a home favorite of fewer than five points. 10* (732) Memphis Grizzlies

We won with the 'under' in Game Two and we will once again go back to the 'under' for Game Four. Game One of this series went 'over' the total and it wasn't even close as Atlanta and Chicago surpassed the number by 20 points. The closing number on Monday was 178 and the number went up by a bucket for Game Two and while it isn't a huge increase, it was enough to provide some value. The game snuck 'over' on Friday and while the number has not gone up much, any increase is on our side.

After scoring 103 points in Game One, Atlanta has not been as successful on offense as the Bulls defense has clamped down as expected. After shooting 51.8 percent in the opening game, the Hawks shot 33.8 percent in Game Two. Atlanta hit a respectable 47.1 percent on Game Three and while it was still held to 82 points, Chicago knows it must to a better job on the defensive end. Chicago is allowing under 43 percent shooting on the season and we will see a better effort here.

The Bulls are shooting 43.5 percent in this series which is lower than their season average and that should continue against the Atlanta defense that has been solid the entire playoffs. The Hawks have been a solid defending team all season and they have allowed 100 points only once in nine playoff games and have allowed more than 90 points in only three other occasions. Atlanta is now 3-1 to the 'under' in its home playoff games and is 8-1 to the 'under' in its last nine home games overall.

When the competition steps up, both teams have played more lower scoring games as Chicago is 24-13 to the 'under' this season when playing a team with a winning record while the Hawks are 30-15 to the 'under' when playing against a team with a winning record this season. Also, the Bulls are 22-9 to the 'under' after allowing 85 points or less this season while Atlanta is 30-17 to the 'under' after a game where they failed to cover the spread this season. 10* Under (727) Chicago Bulls/(728) Atlanta Hawks

Boston is against the wall now and after allowing the Heat to put up 99 and 102 points in the first two games, the way to get back into this series is with defense. The Celtics are allowing 91.3 ppg on the season so those two efforts were certainly not what they had in mind. Returning home is a start as the Celtics are giving up just 91.2 ppg on their home floor and in the two home meetings against the Heat, they gave up 80 and 82 points as both games stayed well below the number.

The first two meetings in this second round series have gone 'over' and because of that, we are getting some solid value. Game One had a closing total of 179.5 while Game Two had a closing total of 181.5 and for Game Three, the number has been pushed even further. We are seeing an increase of just a point but that still creates value and the change in venue adds to that. The Celtics and Heat went 'under' in three of the four regular season meetings which needs to be taken into consideration as well.

Miami is 8-3 to the 'over' this season when it is an underdog but eight of those games came against the Western Conference. The offensive output is what we need to be concerned about and the Heats scored 97 points or fewer in eight of those games including all three within the conference. They were never underdogs against Boston which makes this the first instance of the season so the offensive inconsistency in these situations along with the low scoring in Boston help our cause here.

I mentioned that the change of venue helps our value and that is due to Boston being 11-2 to the 'under' in home playoff games over the last two years including 2-0 to the 'under' this season. Also, the Celtics are 17-4-1 to the 'under' in their last 22 games as a favorite. Meanwhile the Heat are 22-13 to the 'under' after a win by 10 points or more this season including 9-3 to the 'under' in their last 12 games. Also, the 'under' is 4-0 in Miami's last four games after it scored 100 or more points in its previous game. 10* Under (723) Miami Heat/(724) Boston Celtics

The Lakers are in trouble, down 2-0 in the series but heading to Dallas may be a good thing at this point. Suspensions, pointing fingers and disdain from former players are the storylines for Los Angeles which is trying for a third straight NBA Championship after losing the first two games at home in a playoff series for the first time in 42 years. While definitely not ideal, the 'backs against the wall' scenario puts the Lakers in the position to put it all on the line tonight as a 3-0 deficit means curtain's closed.

Give the Mavericks credit as they are in the drivers seat right now, not only for this series but for representing the Western Conference in the NBA Finals. That is still a long ways off however and the confidence of Dallas is still in question. "If you would have told me before that we were going to win both games, it would have been hard to believe,

Game One of this series went 'over' the total and it wasn't even close as Atlanta and Chicago surpassed the number by 20 points. The closing number on Monday was 178 and the number has gone up by a bucket for Game Two and while it isn't a huge increase, it is enough to provide some value in what should be a totally different game this time around. This takes the zig zag theory into play and both teams had similar results in their first round series that should make for a lower scoring game on Wednesday.

Game One was just the second of seven playoff games for the Hawks that went 'over' the total. This Game Two is set up the same way from their Game Two in the first round against Orlando. In that opener, the Hawks won while shooting 51.4 percent from the floor. In the next game, Atlanta shot just 39.5 percent from the floor and scored only 82 points, 21 fewer than in its previous game. In Game One Monday, the Hawks shot 51.3 percent from the floor and I expect another huge dropoff here as well.

The Chicago defense is one of the best units in the NBA and it was not on display in that first game. The Bulls allowed the Hawks to shoot over eight percent higher than what they normally allow and that is something that is taken personally. Chicago knows it has a better chance of winning a low scoring game than a shootout, especially at home, and the way to do that is hunker down on defense. The Bulls opening game against Indiana also went 'over' and a better effort on defense allowed Game Two to stay 'under'.

The Bulls have been in similar situations this season and they have in fact responded with better defensive efforts. Chicago is 16-7 to the 'under' revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points this season and 43-30 to the 'under' after one or more consecutive overs over the last two seasons. Atlanta meanwhile is 19-8 to the 'under' in its last 27 games as a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 points while also going 21-7 to the 'under' versus teams that are outscoring their opponents by three or more ppg this season. 10* Under (713) Atlanta Hawks/(714) Chicago Bulls

I won with the Heat on Sunday and will be going the opposite in Game Two. The Celtics did not play a good game at all in the opener as they missed out on a lot of chances to get back into the game after falling behind early. Boston was erratic on offense from the start as in the first 16 minutes of the game, it was 7 for 27 from the floor and finished the game with 13 turnovers. That type of effort is not going to win much on the road but as we have seen this season, the Celtics are very capable of getting it done away from home.

The one key player for the Celtics in Game Two is going to be Rajon Rondo. The Heat had no one who could contend with Rondo but they got away with this one because the real Rondo didn

Not many expected Atlanta to be here but they took care of the Magic in the first round and now face an even more difficult challenge. The Hawks were able to win one game in Orlando which just so happened to be the first game of the series which did end up being the difference maker. Can the Hawks duplicate that feat in Chicago? I highly doubt it. When combined with the extra days off the Bulls gained by beating Indiana in five games and the home court edge, the Bulls will not fall down first.

Chicago finished the regular season 39-5 at home which was tied for the best home record in all of the NBA. That is pretty significant because the Hawks were able to defeat the Magic on the road but they lost seven more home games during the regular season than Chicago did and yet we are getting a shorter line than those first two games played in Orlando. Some will argue that Chicago struggled with Indiana and while the Bulls did have some closer than expected games, it was still by far the dominant team.

The Hawks did have a matchup edge with Orlando which was obviously shown in the first round series as well as the regular season. It is different here. The Bulls won the season series two games to one but in reality it should have been a sweep. Atlanta won the first game of this series at home and we cashed a ticket in that game but it was fortunate to overcome a 19-point deficit in doing so. The Bulls easily won the other two meetings as they had a combined biggest lead of 69 points.

The Chicago Times nailed it as it quoted that if the other Bulls (other than Derrick Rose) can ham-and-egg it the way they did in the first round, with different people making shots, their defense ought to make them a tough obstacle for the Hawks. Atlanta is down a key player as well as Kirk Hinrich, the former Bull who could have made things difficult for Rose, is doubtful for the series with a hamstring injury. The Bulls are 23-8-2 ATS in their last 33 games against teams with a winning record. 10* (704) Chicago Bulls

The talk of the early part of the NBA season was how easily Boston handled Miami during the first three meetings, but in actuality, the games were a lot closer than they were portrayed to be. The Celtics won those games by an average of just 5.3 ppg and two of those were at home. Once the Heat finally established themselves, they were able to manhandle Boston and won the final meeting by 23 points at home and I expect another lopsided affair to start this series.

That final meeting came near the end of the regular season where Miami was able to find its identity after a season full of ups and downs. After a five-game losing streak in early March, the Heat closed the season by going 15-3 over their last 18 games and eventually overtook the Celtics for the second seed in the Eastern Conference. In the playoffs, Miami needed five games to advance, overcoming double-digit deficits in three games to end Philadelphia

After Orlando won Game Five to keep its series alive with the Hawks, it was unable to get it done last night and was shown an early exit. San Antonio is in the same boat tonight and coming off an improbable Game Five win, the Spurs take that into tonight and extend the series to head back home for the clinching game. I won with the Spurs in that game, some may have pushed, and the big reason behind it was heart which they showed they had plenty of. And there is plenty more left.

Memphis is playing a great series and it is one shot away from already advancing. The Grizzlies know this is now the biggest game in franchise history as they do not want to have to win the series on the road so their job is to get it done at home. That puts a lot of pressure on this young team and I think it will be too much. Atlanta did it last night but the Hawks are of a different makeup and while the matchup is not heavily in favor of San Antonio, it is enough that is coupled with the momentum shift its way.

The key in Game Five was obviously in the overtime session but it was more about how the teams looked in overtime and San Antonio looked far more confident than Memphis by closing out Game Five rather easily. This is a veteran team that is playing for what could be the last chance for an NBA Championship and they know it. The Spurs have yet to put together a full game on the offensive end and Memphis is not that great of a team defensively so it should not be difficult for San Antonio to finally break out.

As far as this line goes, we are seeing too much of an adjustment as a 10-point swing is too aggressive and this is now the biggest number for the Grizzlies against the Spurs all season. That is certainly a factor seeing that the Grizzlies have owned this series against the number, going 9-0-1 or 9-1 ATS the last 10 meetings. The Spurs are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 road games after a home game where both teams scored 100 or more points. This is new territory for Memphis and back to San Antonio we go for Game Seven. 10* (541) San Antonio Spurs

I feel that Dallas is clearly the superior team in this matchup and this series should already be finished. The Mavericks showed what they are capable of in their Game Five win and if not for a 23-point blown lead in Game Four, Dallas could be home resting for the second round. Instead it still needs one more win to bring home the series but the Mavericks have momentum on their side once again as that shifted to the Blazers side following that improbable comeback last Saturday.

If playing the zig zag theory, Portland would be the play as it is coming off a loss but you can see how the linesmakers have adjusted this line as we are seeing a 9.5-point swing from Game Four to Game Five. One of the key strategies in playoff betting is to focus on road teams that know how to win on the road and Dallas certainly fits that bill. Despite losing both games in Portland, the Mavericks are 28-15 on the road this season. Portland is just 13-32 ATS in its last 45 games as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6.0 points.

NBA history is on our side here as well as momentum from a Game Five win is considered the greatest momentum there is. The Game Five winner of a series tied 2-2 has a 95-percent success rate through NBA history showing that it is hard for the team that is down to comeback and take the series. Granted, the visiting team has yet to win in this series, which means the Mavericks will have their work cut out for them in Game Six but as mentioned, they are a road tough team.

Dallas falls into a very simple yet very effective situation. Play against favorites after failing to cover the spread in three or more consecutive games going up against an opponent after successfully covering the spread in four or more consecutive games. This situation is 44-21 ATS (67.7 percent) over the last five seasons. The Mavericks are 13-4 ATS in their 17 games this season as a road underdog of six points or less including an 12-3 ATS mark as a road underdog of fewer than five points. 10* (535) Dallas Mavericks