Sports Picks & Predictions

We won with the Knicks last night but that was more of a play against Brooklyn than anything else and tonight we will be going against New York. The Knicks have won two straight games to move back to .500 but are coming off a four-game homestand and are now playing their first road game since before Thanksgiving. The Bucks lost their second straight game, this time at Detroit last night. They never led and it ended up being their eighth straight loss on the road but they are a much more respectable 5-2 over their last seven home games. They opened the season with a 25-point home loss to New York so Milwaukee will be out to make amends even though it already did pick up a win at MSG. The Bucks have played exceptional this season playing with no rest, going a perfect 4-0 ATS. In my opinion, the wrong team is favored tonight. 10* (714) Milwaukee Bucks

This is an early season revenger for Minnesota as it lost at home against Portland last month to aid in its not-so-good 2-7 record at home. Surprisingly, the Timberwolves are 6-3 on the road so it has been a very unusual start for them as they head into this one having lost two straight. Portland meanwhile is coming off an upset win over Indiana at home but it has been a trying season for the Blazers without LaMarcus Aldridge and Nicolas Batum. After starting the season 4-2, Portland is just 4-10 over its last 14 games including a 1-6 record on the road with the lone win coming against the 3-16 Lakers. Here, we play against teams where the line is +3 to -3 coming off an upset win as an underdog going up against an opponent off a upset loss as a favorite. This situation is 63-28 ATS (69.2 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (708) Minnesota Timberwolves

It has been a trying season for the Rockets as they have done their best to fall out of contention in the Western Conference. They made it to the Western Conference Finals a season ago so expectations were high but after a poor start to this season, head coach Kevin McHale was let go which has not cured much. Although Houston has won three of its last four games and is catching a very solid number here. Dallas is just three games over .500 following a 2-4 run but the fact it is riding a five-game home winning streak is the main reason for the size of this number. The Rockets fall into a great situation as we play on road teams after allowing 100 points or more four straight games going up against an opponent after a win by six points or less. This situation is 45-19 ATS (70.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (509) Houston Rockets

Fresh off a pair of wins, Brooklyn heads to MSG to face the Knicks for the first meeting this season. The Nets are in the midst of their first multi-game winning streak of the season with both of those wins coming by just three and four points and both took big fourth quarter comebacks. The Knicks meanwhile are coming off a win over the Sixers, which is certainly nothing great, but it snapped a four-game skid so it in fact was a much needed victory. Brooklyn has won just one road game this season and despite a 1-10 road record, it is catching the smallest line it has seen on the highway all season. Going back, Brooklyn is 4-16 ATS in its last 20 games following consecutive wins while the Knicks are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a win. 10* (502) New York Knicks

The Wizards are playing some horrible basketball right now but in no way should they be a home underdog in this spot. They are coming off a loss against the now 3-15 Lakers which was their fifth loss in six games and they were unable to capitalize off a big upset win in Cleveland the previous night. Phoenix is going though a similar skid as it has lost six of its last seven games including losses in two straight following a win in Toronto to open this roadtrip. The Suns were favored over Brooklyn by 3.5 points to open the week and there is no way they should be favored again on the road against a much better team despite the home team struggles. Going back, the Suns are 0-4 ATS in their last four games against teams with a losing straight up record while the Wizards are 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight games against teams with a losing straight up record. 10* (504) Washington Wizards

Orlando is one of the NBA's pleasant early season surprises as it comes in with a 10-8 record which currently puts it in a tie for seventh place in the Eastern Conference. The Magic have won four straight games and Orlando has not won five games in a row in nearly four years so this is brand new territory. After finishing six games under .500 last season, Utah is off to a .500 start which is actually good enough for seventh place in the Western Conference. The Jazz are coming off a hard fought battle against Golden St. as they gave the Warriors all they could handle in a three-point loss. It was the second straight home loss and just the sixth home game overall on the season. Utah will be out for some revenge following a loss in Orlando earlier last month by nine points as a 1.5-point favorite and going back, the Jazz are 9-0 ATS in their last nine games revenging a straight up loss as a favorite. Additionally, Utah is 15-3 ATS in its last 18 games after allowing 105 points or more. The defense has allowed 96 points or less in four or five games after allowing 100 points this season and we will see another solid bounceback effort tonight. 10* (706) Utah Jazz

Denver has dropped six straight games and the offense has gotten progressively worse over the stretch as the Nuggets scored 107 points in the first loss and are coming off a season-low 74 points scored at Milwaukee on Monday. The under has come through over the last four games which came after a four-game over run where the offense was much more efficient and the dense was awful. Chicago meanwhile has alternated wins and losses over its last five games but going back further, the Bulls have gone under the total in seven straight games. While their own defense has looked sharp, they have gone against some very tough defenses of late with the last four games coming against teams ranked in the top ten in shooting percentage defense. Denver is ranked 5th worst. The Bulls defense has performed very well this season allowing just 41.1 percent shooting but the pace is the difference as Chicago is the 7th fastest team in the league with 102.2 possessions per game and its 91.3 field goal attempts allowed per game is by far the most. Denver is 13-4 to the over in its last 17 games against teams allowing 43 percent shooting or better while the over is 6-2 in the Bulls last eight games against teams with a winning percentage below .400. 10* Over (509) Denver Nuggets/(510) Chicago Bulls

Both Memphis and New Orleans got off to horrible starts this season but it has been the former that has been able to recover the most. The Grizzlies have won seven of their last nine games including their last game against the winless Sixers so while the recent run has gotten them over .500, this is a team that still has issues. After a solid three-game winning streak that had them going in the right direction, the Pelicans have lost their last two games but those were on the road and they have won their last two home games and three of four. New Orleans has played seven of their last 10 games on the highway so the schedule has been trying and despite that, they have covered their last four games against winning teams. The best news for New Orleans is that Tyreke Evans and Norris Cole will be making their season debuts tonight after missing the first 13 games because of injuries. The Grizzlies are 8-19-2 ATS in their last 29 games against teams with a winning percentage below .400 while New Orleans is 25-9 ATS in their last 34 games after failing to cover two of their last three games against the spread. 10* (708) New Orleans Pelicans

This is the second meeting in two weeks between Orlando and Minnesota and the Timberwolves will be out for some revenge following that overtime defeat. Minnesota is coming off a short two-game roadtrip where it split as it defeated Sacramento on Friday only to follow that up with a loss against the Clippers on Sunday. The Timberwolves opened the season 0-6 at home but have won two straight at the Target Center and while a win over Philadelphia means little, a win over Atlanta last time out was a solid one. Orlando is over .500 for the first time this season following its third straight win on Sunday and it is over .500 for the first time since November 6, 2013. This is a team moving in the right direction but this is not a good spot as the Magic are 2-5 on the road including losses in three straight all by nine points or more. The Magic are 1-4 ATS in their last five games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game while the Timberwolves are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. 10* (710) Minnesota Timberwolves

Washington has gotten off to a horrible start to the season based on expectations coming in and it certainly doesn’t get any easier here. The offense has been atrocious the last three games as the Wizards have scored 87, 78 and 82 points and to no surprise, all of those games stayed below the total. I expect a big effort tonight against an average Cleveland defense that has been very inconsistent. The Cavaliers have stayed below the total in two straight games as the offense has tallied just 90 and 95 points but now they face a Wizards defense that has allowed 105.1 ppg on 46 percent shooting through 14 games, both of which are 25th in the NBA. Cleveland is shooting 46.1 percent while averaging 103.1 ppg and prior to this two-game under run, they had gone over the total in six straight. Here we play the over involving road teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 after going under the total by more than 12 points in two consecutive games, first half of the season. This situation is 41-18 (69.5 percent) to the under since 1996. Meanwhile, the over is 40-17-1 in the Cavaliers last 58 games playing on two days rest. 10* Over (701) Washington Wizards/(702) Cleveland Cavaliers

The Spurs 14-3 record is second best in the NBA, only trailing 18-0 Golden St., following their fifth straight win on Saturday over Atlanta. It was the ninth consecutive win at home to start the season and while a 5-3 road record is respectable, the win at Boston is the only one against a team with a winning record. Chicago is coming off a loss at Indiana to close its four-game roadtrip with a 2-2 record and now the Bulls head home to improve upon their 5-1 record at home. Four of those five wins have come against teams with a winning record so while the Spurs have not had a quality road slate, the Bulls have a very quality home slate. The Bulls fall into a fantastic situation as we play against road favorites with a winning percentage of .750 or better after having covered four of their last five games against the spread, playing a team with a winning record. This situation is 64-29 ATS (68.8 percent) since 1996. The Spurs are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a win of more than 10 points while the Bulls are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a loss of more than 10 points. 10* (506) Chicago Bulls

Oklahoma City has gained some momentum with four straight victories to move to 11-6 on the season but the Thunder have played a very easy schedule thus far. Of those 17 games, only three have come against teams ranked in the top ten in the league and they have gone just 1-2 in those games including a loss in the only road game against a top ten team. On top of that, only six of the first 17 games have been on the highway. Atlanta has been pretty inconsistent of late following a 7-1 start to the season as it has gone just 4-7 over its last 11 games but the majority of those have been on the road. The Hawks are coming off a loss at San Antonio by 20 points but they have followed up their last three losses with wins next time out. Atlanta is 34-19 ATS in its last 53 games against teams with a winning record while going 34-21 in its last 55 games after playing a game on the road. Oklahoma City is just 1-5 ATS in its last sis games against winning teams while going 8-19 ATS in its last 27 road games against teams with a winning home record. 10* (510) Atlanta Hawks

Boston went to Orlando last night and got throttled by 19 points but more important for our purposes here, it was its third straight under after going over in its previous four games. Now the Celtics are catching a total that is the lowest they have seen all season and the time they have had one south of 200 in 15 consecutive games. The Heat meanwhile have gone under in four straight games but those four games were against teams ranked 24th, 29th and 30th in the NBA in scoring offense while Boston is a top 10 offense. The under has been a trend all season with 15 of 17 staying below the total but only three games overall have come against top 10 offenses. The trend for the over/unders for Miami has seen the number go down in each of these past four games and while this one is back up a bit, it is still in a good range based on the opponent. The over is 6-1 in the Celtics last seven games against teams with a winning record while the over is 6-1 in Heat's last seven games against team with a winning record. 10* Over (501) Boston Celtics/(502) Miami Heat

The Clippers had lost four of five games before trouncing New Orleans on Friday with the offense putting up 111 points. That offense has been inconsistent of late but they are still the sixth highest scoring team in the NBA and the recent inconsistencies has led to a run of five straight unders. Minnesota is also coming off a win, its third straight, and it has been the defense that has led the way so something has to give today. That defense has led the Timberwolves to four straight unders but now they face a real challenge. Both teams are in the top ten in the NBA in shooting percentage and we are seeing a significant decrease in the total than each team had in its previous game. The over is 8-2 in the Clippers last 10 home games against teams with a winning road record and the over is 12-3 in their last 15 games following a win. Meanwhile, the over is 51-33 in the Timberwolves last 84 games following one or more consecutive unders with an average of 210 ppg scored in those follow up games. 10* Over (703) Minnesota Timberwolves/(704) Los Angeles Clippers

The Clippers are arguably the second most disappointing team in the NBA with the Rockets taking top prize. Los Angeles fell below .500 for the second time in three games following a home loss against Utah on Wednesday. After starting the season 4-1 at home, the Clippers have lost three straight here. New Orleans meanwhile has won its last three games after a horrific 1-11 start. The last won was its first road win after dropping seven straight and they are not in a good spot to keep the road winning alive. New Orleans is 4-15 ATS in its last 19 games after a combined score of 225 points or more while going 1-6 ATS in its last seven games against teams with a losing record. The Clippers meanwhile are 47-28 ATS in their last 75 games after failing to cover 8 or more of their last 10 games against the spread. 10* (724) Los Angeles Clippers

The Spurs are sitting atop the Southwest Division yet again as they have won three straight games and nine of their last 10. the lone defeat came on the road where San Antonio is 4-3 compared to 8-0 at home. Denver has lost its last four games, the first of which came in San Antonio where the Spurs were favored by 13.5 points so you can see the value difference here. The Spurs are not at full strength tonight as both Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili will be resting with a game against Atlanta tomorrow. Additionally, we play on underdogs after allowing 105 points or more three straight games going up against an opponent after a win by six points or less. This situation is 36-10 ATS (78.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (718) Denver Nuggets

Both Miami and New York suffered losses on Wednesday as each offense could not keep up. Expect those offenses to move things along tonight against inconsistent defenses. These teams are a combined 22-7-1 to the under and that is keeping this total down and is actually a bucket lower than what it was when they met on Monday. The over is 10-1 in the Heat's last 11 games following a loss of more than 10 points while the over is 7-3-1 in the Knicks last 11 games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. Additionally, New York is 23-11 to the over in its last 34 games when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points. 10* Over (705) Miami Heat/(706) New York Knicks

Miami is off to a great 9-4 start this season including wins in three straight games but the schedule could not have started any easier. Of those 13 games, 10 have been at home including the last seven with only two of those games coming against teams with a winning record. Overall, the Heat have played the easiest schedule in the NBA and the only road win came against the Timberwolves. Detroit started hot but has lost two straight games and six of its last eight games to fall to 7-7 overall. Unlike the Heat, the Pistons have played a tough schedule, ranked sixth overall, with nine of those 14 games taking place on the road. The Heat are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games following a win of more than 10 points while the Pistons are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games following a loss of more than 10 points. 10* (708) Detroit Pistons

Cleveland is coming off a three-game sweep in its most recent homestand to move to a perfect 8-0 at home and now it hits the road where it is just 3-3 on the season. It has been a very favorable schedule for the Cavaliers as they have played the second easiest slate in the NBA through the first month. Because of who they are, they come in as a road chalk while having played just one team with a winning record away from home. Toronto has withstood a very tough schedule through the first month of the season as it is 9-6 following a disappointing 2-3 west coast roadtrip. 11 of the first 15 games have been on the highway and the Raptors are 3-1 at home with the lone defeat coming by just a bucket. Cleveland is just 1-10 ATS in its last 11 road games the last two seasons after scoring 105 points or more two straight games while the Raptors are 5-0 ATS in their last five games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. 10* (710) Toronto Raptors

Charlotte has won three straight games but it has not exactly been against top level opposition as those wins came against teams a combined 8-36 and all three teams are ranked 25th or worse in power ratings. The Hornets are 6-1 against teams ranked in the bottom half of the league but just 2-5 against every other team. Washington hasn't exactly been lighting things on fire as it is just 6-5 following a loss at home last night against Indiana which snapped a three-game winning streak. While Charlotte is 6-1 at home, the Wizards are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games against teams with a winning home record while going 7-2 ATS in their last nine road games against teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. The underdog has covered five straight games in this series and we expect that to continue here. 10* (703) Washington Wizards

Chicago has not gotten off to a good start on this west coast swing as it has split the first two games but you cannot fault the Bulls for a loss against Golden St. as no team has been able to solve the Warriors thus far. Both of those games stayed below the total to make it three straight unders and these last two have had closing totals higher than tonight's. The offense will get a boost tonight with the return of Derrick Rose as three days off since the Golden St. game has given his ankle time to heal. Portland has won two straight games since suffering through a seven-game losing streak. The defense has been the difference but those games came against the dreadful Lakers and the struggling Clippers. After seven straight overs, Portland has gone under the total in four of its last five games and with that, the over/under is affected as it is the second lowest over this six-game stretch, the lowest being a point lower against the Spurs, which posses the best defense in the NBA. The Bulls possess a better offense than in the past and they are playing at a much fast pace than in the past as they are averaging 102.4 possessions per game, seventh most in the NBA. While the Chicago defense is still solid, Portland is 15-4 to the over in its last 19 games against teams allowing 43 percent shooting or lower. 10* Over (509) Chicago Bulls/(510) Portland Trailblazers

After starting the season with seven consecutive covers, Orlando has covered just once over their last six games as linesmakers finally adjusted to catch up. The Magic did go 3-3 in those games and they are now at 6-7 overall with only one of those losses coming by double-digits. This is a significantly improved team and they catch a Cleveland team that is pretty thin with some injuries. Mo Williams and Timofey Mozgov are both out and while the Cavaliers are still loaded, they have had a tough time covering big numbers. Of course because it is Cleveland, the lines are inflated and with that, the Cavaliers are just 1-6 ATS in their seven games when favored by six or more points. Orlando meanwhile is a perfect 4-0 ATS as an underdog of six or more points and it is one of just two teams in the NBA with a losing record that is getting outscored by less than one ppg which reiterates the point about games being close. Going back, Orlando is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 road games against teams outscoring their opponents by three or more ppg. Additionally, the Magic are 9-0 ATS in their last nine road games after failing to cover five or six of their last seven games against the spread while the Cavaliers are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games after two or more consecutive wins this season. 10* (701) Orlando Magic

This is the second of a home-and-home set between Boston and Brooklyn with the Celtics easily winning the first matchup on Friday by 25 points. They were nine-point favorites there and based on the venue change, they should be favored between 2.5-3 points here so you can see the line value were are getting. Boston has been playing well with wins in six of their last eight games including three straight road wins but now it comes in the highest it has been favored on the road all season. Brooklyn is off to a rough start but the schedule has been tough with six of their last seven games taking place on the road. The one home game resulted in a win by a bucket over Atlanta and the other two prior home losses were very competitive. The Nets fall into a solid contrarian situation where we play against divisional road favorites that are coming off an home win scoring 110 or more points. This situation is 44-17 ATS (72.1 percent) over the last five seasons. Brooklyn is 23-9 ATS in its last 32 games after having lost two of its last three games and 5-1 ATS in its last six home games against teams with a road winning percentage of greater than .600 while the Celtics are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games against teams with a home winning percentage of less than .400. 10* (506) Brooklyn Nets

After four consecutive losses, the Rockets fired head coach Kevin McHale and they were well on their way to a fifth straight defeat as they trailed Portland by 17 points. But as we all know, no lead is safe in the NBA and Houston rallied in the fourth quarter to send the game into overtime which it won by five points. That is the type of win the Rockets desperately needed and it is one that can be carried forward. On the flip side, it was the fifth straight non-cover so we are getting line value because of it. It has not been a great start for the Grizzlies either as they are 6-6 although they have won three straight games heading into tonight. The last one came back on Monday however so some of the positive momentum may have been lost with the lengthy time off. Going back, the Grizzlies are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 games against teams with a losing record while the underdog has covered five of the last six meetings in this series. Houston meanwhile is 54-30 ATS in its last 84 road games after failing to cover the spread in three or more consecutive games. 10* (511) Houston Rockets

Golden St. is 5-0 on the road but this is their biggest test so far but are overpriced because of their perfect 12-0 start to the season. The Warriors are 7-5 against the number after opening by covering their first four games so the linesmakers have made the necessary adjustments and we are again catching an overadjustment here. The Clippers snapped a two-game skid with a win over Detroit and are now back after a four-day layoff after getting no more than two between any of its first 10 contests. They have had issues on the road with three straight losses but are a solid 5-1 at home with the lone loss coming against Houston by four points which was due to a 26-17 deficit at the free throw line. The Clippers will be without Chris Paul for a third straight game and while his absence is big, this team is still loaded and ending the Warriors 12-game winning streak to start the season is the goal in this hated rivalry. The last NBA team to open a season with 13 consecutive victories was the 2002-03 Dallas Mavericks, who won their first 14 games. These teams met earlier in the month with the Warriors closing as a 7.5-point favorite at home which is a fair number but now being close to that chalk on the road is simply too much. This season's meeting marks Golden State's smallest margin of victory of 2014-15. Here, we play against road favorites against division opponents, off an home win scoring 110 or more points. This situation is 44-16 ATS (73.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (706) Los Angeles Clippers

Atlanta opened the season 8-2 but it has now dropped three straight games including a pretty embarrassing loss at Brooklyn last night, just the second win of the season for the Nets. The last two defeats have come by a combined three points so it hasn't had a fortunate run as things could have gone the other way. The losing streak, along with the fact that the Hawks have dropped five straight games against the number, is giving us a very good number. Sacramento is also helping with the low line as the Kings have won three straight games following a six-game losing streak. It is a nice run but all of those wins came at home and overall, they are coming off a six-game homestand. This is the first road game since November 4th and just the third road game of the season as nine of the first 11 games have taken place at home. Additionally, those first two road games were on the west coast so now comes a real trip. Point guard Jeff Teague has missed the last two games, and is questionable tonight but despite his absence being a big one, this line is not where it should be given the difference between these two teams. Atlanta has dominated this series with 14 straight wins and most of those were with a below average Hawks team and the Kings are 9-21 ATS in their last 30 games off an upset win as an underdog. 10* (514) Atlanta Hawks

Charlotte and New York meet for the second time in less than a week and while the game was not decided until the final buzzer, the game stayed well below the total as 188 total points were scored in a game that closed with a 200.5 over/under. We are now getting a number that is a couple buckets lower than that obviously due to that result but also to extended runs from both sides. Charlotte is 3-0-1 to the under in its last four games with all those games closing at 199 or higher while the Knicks have gone under in three straight games and seven of their last eight games and tonight's number is the lowest of the bunch. The offense should continue to get better with the improved play of Carmelo Anthony as through the first six games, he shot 37.5 percent or worse five times but since then, he is averaging 26.6 ppg on 45.9 percent shooting and 38.7 percent from long range. Going back, New York is 67-41 to the over in its last 108 games as a home underdog of three points or less while the Hornets are 7-1 to the over their last eight games against teams with a losing record. We see a much higher scoring game here than what we saw last week. 10* Over (709) Charlotte Hornets/(710) New York Knicks

Following a pair of upsets over the weekend, the Celtics are over .500 for the first time since opening the season 1-0 following a win over Philadelphia. Boston defeated Atlanta at home on Friday and then took out the Thunder last night on the road by 15 points thanks to a 28-11 fourth quarter. That puts the Celtics in a letdown situation for tonight and they are facing the wrong opponent at the wrong time. While the Celtics are trending up, the Rockets are going in the wrong direction as they have dropped three straight games and are now a dismal 4-6 on the season. The defense has been the issue as the Rockets are allowing opponents to shoot 47 percent from the floor while giving up 108.3 ppg. Because of the struggles, Houston is laying a very reasonable number tonight and is actually laying fewer points tonight than they did in their last game against a better Dallas team. Houston is 16-6 ATS in its last 22 games following a double-digit loss while going 20-8 ATS in their last 28 home games against teams with a winning road record. Meanwhile, the Celtics are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games against teams with a home winning percentage of less than .400. 10* (506) Houston Rockets

Portland's totals have been all over the place over the last 11 days, ranging from 189.5 to 206 yet the Trailblazers have surpassed the total in each and every game. We are getting a number on the high side for Sunday and we are banking on a lower scoring game and that over streak coming to an end. It is a run that is surprising based on the fact that Portland is just 18th in the NBA in pace, averaging just 99.7 possessions per game. On the other side, Charlotte is 26th in the pace category as it averages just 98.6 possessions per game and its recent run of three straight unders coincides with that. While the Trailblazers have seen totals from all angles, this is the highest one that the Hornets have encountered this season. In all three games that Charlotte has had a total in the 200's, all fell below the mark of what it has here Sunday. This has been a high-scoring series as each of the last three years has resulted in a sweep of the over but again, this is the highest number of them all. 10* Under (705) Portland Trailblazers/(706) Charlotte Hornets

After a 3-1 start, Washington has lost three straight games and none of those were pretty. Losses by 24, 15 and 20 points led to head coach Randy Whitman calling his team out as being soft and lacking confidence. "Effort. That's all it is," Wittman said Friday. "Loose balls. Effort. Who's going to dive on the floor? This team's capable of doing it. They've proven that." During the current losing streak, the Wizards, whose foundation for success during playoff runs the past two seasons was their defense, are giving up 119 ppg. The challenge is to correct that tonight against the surprisingly good Orlando Magic. They have won two straight and four of five games but they are catching Washington at the wrong time for sure. Because of the recent runs, we are getting line value here as Orlando was getting 4.5 points at home against Washington in its opener and now it is getting just one point more on he road. Here, we play on favorites that are averaging 102 or more ppg going up against teams averaging between 98 and 102 ppg, after allowing 120 points or more. This situation is 54-24 ATS (69.2 percent) since 1996. 10* (504) Washington Wizards

We have some early season revenge in play tonight with the Bulls as they will be out to avenge a 25-point loss in Charlotte on November 3rd. It has been a very average start to the season for Chicago as it has gone just 3-3 since 2-0 start, the last time it has won consecutive games. The Bulls are coming off a win over the Knicks in their last game which was back on Monday so they have had a good deal of time off to get ready here. Charlotte is also coming off a win over the Knicks in its last game which was a game is really should have lost as a last second three-pointer from New York was overturned even though one of the scoreboards showed there being time remaining. The Hornets have won two straight games and four of their last five games after a 0-3 start but this is not the ideal spot to keep the run going. They have failed to cover both games this season when getting six or more points and going back, they are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine games following a victory. Meanwhile, the Bulls are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games against teams with a losing road record while going 28-11 ATS in their last 39 games revenging a loss of 10 points or more. Chicago gets its revenge in a big way tonight. 10* (716) Chicago Bulls

After opening the season with an over against Charlotte, Miami has now gone under the total in its last seven games as the defense has been lights out over that stretch. Because of this, the totals have to be adjusted based on the opponent and tonight sees the lowest over/under that Miami has seen this season. Additionally, this is the first total for the Heat that has been in the 180's and it is on the low end for that matter and going back, Miami is 17-4 to the over in its last 21 home games where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points. Utah is coming off a high scoring game in Cleveland to post just its second over of the season and that one also happened to be in the 180's. Utah is also playing solid defense but the key number here is the offensive shooting percentages which are a combined 89 percent. Utah is 4-0 to the over in its last four road games against teams with a home winning percentage of .600 or better while the over is 7-1 in their last eight games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. Miami falls into a great situation for a high-scoring game as we play the over involving teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points that are outscoring their opponents by six or more ppg going up against an opponent after a combined score of 205 points or more. This situation is 169-109 (60.8 percent) to the over since 1996. 10* Over (501) Utah Jazz/(502) Miami Heat

Golden St. has started right where it left off from last season as it has rolled to an 8-0 start to be the lone remaining undefeated team in the NBA. The Warriors haven't exactly played the most elite schedule as it is ranked 22nd in the NBA and while it is hard to overlook the fact of winning, lines are getting overadjusted. This is the perfect example of that as Golden St. was favored over Memphis at home nine days ago by nine points and now it is favored on the road over the Grizzlies by seven points and that adjustment is not correct. Memphis lost that game by a whopping 50 points so it is safe to say there will be some payback in mind for tonight. It goes back even further as last season, after taking a 2-1 in the Conference Semifinals, Memphis dropped the final three games of the series all by 13 or more points as Golden St. turned it up a notch. The Grizzlies are off to a 3-5 start this season but their schedule has been very tough as it is ranked third in the league with six of the first eight games taking place on the road and this is the first home game since Halloween following a five-game roadtrip. The Warriors are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games against teams with a winning percentage below .400 while the Grizzlies are 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. 10* (714) Memphis Grizzlies

After starting the season with a perfect 5-0 record, Toronto has dropped its last two games but now comes the perfect opportunity to get back into the win column. A loss in Orlando on Friday was followed up by a 20-point loss in Miami as the offense managed just 76 points so we can expect to see a big turnaround tonight. There is value here as well because of the losing skid as last season, the Raptors were favored by 12 and 12.5 points in the two home meetings. The fact that New York already has three wins is also playing a role in the spread but this is a spot the Knicks should not be looking forward to. They are coming off a win on Sunday against the Lakers which snapped a three-game losing streak and while the defense has been surprisingly solid, the offense continues to struggle and that does not bode well here facing one of the best defenses in the league this season and last season. Toronto has a great league-wide situation on its side as we play on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are averaging between 98 and 102 ppg going up against teams allowing between 98 and 102 ppg, after a blowout loss by 20 points or more. This situation is 41-14 ATS (74.5 percent) since 1996. Additionally, Toronto is 16-3 ATS in its last 19 games after scoring 90 points or fewer in two straight games while the Knicks are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games following a win. 10* (508) Toronto Raptors

Miami and Indiana stayed below the total for us on Friday as we missed the over thanks to a dismal 79-point second half. That is done with and now we are set with a better matchup and an even better number to work with. This is by far the lowest total the Heats have seen this season and a big reason for that is the fact that they have gone under the total in five straight games after opening the season with an over against Charlotte. After opening the season by surpassing the century mark in its first five games, Toronto was held to just 87 points on Friday to suffer its first loss of the season. The defense has been excellent for the Raptors, as was the case last season, but now they go up against a Heat team that is shooting 46.3 percent on the season, good for sixth best in the NBA. Like Miami, Toronto has been on an under run, going below the total in four straight games and similarly to the Heat, this is the lowest total the Raptors have seen as well. Toronto is 13-4 to the over in its last 17 road games where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points while Miami has gone over the total in seven of its last 10 games following a loss. 10* Over (505) Toronto Raptors/(506) Miami Heat

Washington saw its three-game winning streak come to an end last night in Boston as the Wizards were crushed by 20 points. We expected a big effort from the Celtics and got it but now Washington turns its attention to the team that once again has the best record in the Eastern Conference. Atlanta was the surprise of the NBA last season and the Hawks are starting right where they left off as they are off to a 6-1 start which includes wins in six straight games following a season opening loss to Detroit. The Wizards should have some added motivation tonight as it was the Hawks that eliminated them from the playoffs a season ago, a 4-2 series loss in the Eastern Conference Semifinals. This is not a great spot for the Hawks as well as this is their fourth game in five nights so fatigue can always come into play. Going back, the Wizards are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games against teams with a winning home record while the Hawks are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games. Atlanta is the biggest public consensus on the NBA board for today and we go against that here. 10* (705) Washington Wizards

Both Miami and Indiana are off to average starts this season and both have been involved in some very low scoring games this season. I think that changes tonight as we are bucking that trend and going with the value play in what looks to be a high scoring game. The Heat opened the season with an over against Charlotte but since then, they have stayed under the total in four straight games with none of those really coming close to going over. The Pacers meanwhile are off to a similar start where they went over in their first two games but have stayed under the total in their last three games and like Miami, none have been close to surpassing the number. The contrarian approach tonight is to see both streaks broken. From a pace standpoint, both teams are averaging more possessions per game than they did last season so we should see an uptempo style in this matchup. Indiana is 50-32 to the over in its last 82 games when the total is between 190 and 199.5 and 8-3 to the over in its last 11 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Meanwhile, the over is 5-2 in Miami's last seven road games against teams with a losing home record. 10* Over (511) Miami Heat/(512) Indiana Pacers

After making a playoff run last season, expectations were high in New Orleans but so far, not so good. The Pelicans are off to a 0-4 start to the season and they have failed to cover any game, losing each by a minimum of nine points. Along with the Lakers, they are the only winless team in the Western Conference and that is a distinction they need to avoid. The Hawks meanwhile opened the season with a loss to Detroit but have bounced back with five consecutive wins. All of those have been against average to below average Eastern Conference teams however as the schedule is ranked 26th in the NBA while New Orleans has played the toughest schedule thus far. Going back, the Pelicans are 0-8 in their last eight games but six of those losses have come against Golden St. New Orleans is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 home games against teams outscoring opponents by three or more ppg while going 19-7 ATS in its last 26 home games against teams with a winning road record. Meanwhile, Atlanta is 18-39 ATS in its last 57 games against teams shooting 41 percent or worse. The streak ends tonight for New Orleans. 10* (514) New Orleans Pelicans

Washington is coming off a last second upset victory at home over San Antonio on Wednesday which was its first home win of the season after getting upset by New York. The Wizards are 2-0 on the road but are facing a desperate team tonight and are not in an ideal situation. Boston opened the season with a victory against Philadelphia, which of course is not saying much, but has since lost three straight games including a two-point loss at Indiana on Wednesday. The Celtics have failed to cover any of those games but that changes tonight. They fall into a solid situation where we play against teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are coming off a win as an underdog going up against an opponent off a loss as a favorite. This situation is 59-28 ATS (67.8 percent) over the last five seasons. Additionally, the Celtics are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games against teams with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. Meanwhile, the Wizards are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games against teams with a losing home record and 3-15 ATS in their last 18 games after a win by six points or less. 10* (506) Boston Celtics

After a 0-3 start, the Hornets won their first game of the season in blowout fashion as they rolled over the Bulls on Tuesday by 25 points in a game in which they led by as many as 35 points and also never trailed in. Two losses came against Atlanta while the other was at Miami so the schedule has not been in their favor but Charlotte comes into a tough one here. Dallas opened the season with three straight road games with the lone loss coming against the Clippers and in its home opener, the Raptors pulled away in the fourth quarter with an 11-point win. The Mavericks were good, but not great, at home last season but they still have a big edge here and we are getting a solid line to deal with. I know times change but the gap between these two teams has not narrowed as much as this line is telling us as since 2012, the Mavericks have been favored by 14, 10, 8 and 9.5 in the four home meetings and they won all of those games by more than they are favored by tonight. They have owned this series as the Mavericks have won 23 of the last 24 meetings including every one at home, 14 in a row. Look for Dallas to pull away here before a home-and-home series with New Orleans. 10* (706) Dallas Mavericks

Orlando and Houston are coming off their first wins of the season after 0-3 starts as the Magic won last night in New Orleans while the Rockets took care of Oklahoma City on Monday. The offense finally came to life for Houston against the Thunder as it went over the century mark for the first time this season but the defense remains a concern, as it is allowing 107.8 ppg. Despite this, all four of the Rockets games have stayed under the total and we are getting value now because of that. The Magic have now covered all four games this season and while it is tempting to go against that tonight, laying that number with the Houston defense does not seem logical. Orlando has gone under the total in three of four games including the last two games so it also fits into the contrarian situation here as well. The lone game that went over comes against a similar style team as the game with Oklahoma City easily eclipsed the total even before overtime came into play. Orlando is 31-13 to the over in its last 44 games against teams shooting 41 percent or worse while Houston is 7-3 to the over in its last 10 games against teams with a winning percentage below .400. 10* Over (511) Orlando Magic/(512) Houston Rockets

Looking at the records of Indiana and Detroit, you would think they should be reversed as the Pacers had higher expectations but they are sitting 0-3 while the Pistons are the undefeated team at 3-0. This is the best start for Detroit since 2008-09 and new head coach Stan Van Gundy certainly has a lot to do with that. Now after being underdogs in the first three games, the Pistons are now overpriced as favorites because of the records and what has happened inside the games. The Pacers have struggled no doubt but Detroit has been getting outplayed despite the wins as it has been outshot by 5.3 percent from the floor. Indiana is still trying to get used to a new system as it looks to bounce back from its worst loss thus far on Saturday against Utah. The Pacers haven't started 0-4 since losing their first nine games in 1988-89 and I do not see the losing streak lasting much longer. With Paul George being back as healthy as ever and the additions of Monta Ellis and Myles Turner gives Indiana a very positive outlook going into the season. Going back to last season, the Pacers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a double-digit loss at home and they fall into a great contrarian situation where we play on road teams that are coming off a loss as a favorite going up against an opponent coming off a win as a home underdog. This situation is 34-10 ATS (77.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (705) Indiana Pacers

The Bucks were a pleasant surprise last season as they improved by 26 games from 2013-14 and made the playoffs as the sixth seed. While we won't see a similar improvement, Milwaukee has the ability to be better once again. The return of Jabari Parker from injury and the addition of Greg Monroe will improve the offense considerably which we have already seen the first tow game despite losses in both. The Bucks had the second-best defense in the entire NBA last year so the fact they have allowed 122 points and 118 points is shocking. It won't get easier tonight but we will definitely see an improvement. Toronto has won its first two games thanks to a pair of come-from-behind efforts. The Raptors are favored to win the Atlantic Division but that won't take much in the weakest division in the NBA. While the offense is solid, the defense remains a weakness and that could be a problem matchup here. There is not a huge difference or gap in power ratings here yet the line is telling us different and that is due to the records from both sides early in the season. Milwaukee is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 road game where the total is between 200 and 209.5 while Toronto is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 games coming off a road win by 10 points or more. 10* (705) Milwaukee Bucks

We lost by playing against Golden St. on Tuesday as it was able to pull away from New Orleans in its season opener. 13 more shot attempts and a 21-8 edge in offensive rebounding was the difference but that will not happen tonight and we will go against the reigning champion angle again here, especially as a road favorite against a team that will contend for the Western Conference championship. Houston is coming off a disappointing season opener where it was hammered at home by 20 points against the Nuggets in an awful shooting performance. The Rockets were eliminated in the Western Conference Finals last season by Golden St. in five games so they will be out for some payback. The Rockets are 13-2 ATS in their last 15 games coming off a loss as a favorite and we will see a big bounceback effort tonight. 10* (720) Houston Rockets

Milwaukee got embarrassed at home in its season opener against one of the worst teams in the NBA which makes them a focused bunch tonight as it takes the home floor again. The big thing from Wednesday was the fact that the Bucks allowed 122 points and this was from the second best defense in the NBA a season ago. Giannis Antetokounmpo returns to the lineup after a one-game suspension which also helps. Washington won in Orlando by a point and comes in as a road favorite once again. This is a very public team and with overadjusted lines, Washington went 33-46-3 ATS last season. Going back, the Wizards are 5-22-1 ATS in their last 28 games following an ATS loss and here, we play on teams coming off a loss by 10 points or more as a home favorite, that had a winning percentage between .401 and .499 last season. This situation is 22-4 ATS (84.6 percent) since 1996. 10* (712) Milwaukee Bucks

Oklahoma City is coming off a quality win over San Antonio in its season opener but now comes in as an overpriced road favorite tonight. This is an odd scheduling spot as the Thunder have Denver and Houston on deck over the weekend and this can be a lookahead situation. Orlando dropped a tough one in its opener as it fell by a point against Washington. The Magic covered as a home underdog and we should see that a lot this season. Despite just 25 wins last season, the Magic finished above .500 at the betting window and they have been so bad for so long, expectations are low once again which can lead to many good betting opportunities. Expect a full effort tonight from Orlando which head out on the road for three straight games as well as five of its next six. 10* (706) Orlando Magic

The Lakers are one of the teams in the Western Conference that we don't know much about because of their youth and the health of Kobe Bryant. One thing is for certain though and that is the talent is far superior than the opposition tonight and the fact the Lakers are the first to play at the Staples Center (over the Clippers) is a big deal. Bryant will set a league record for most seasons played with one franchise, surpassing John Stockton, who played for the Jazz from the 1984-85 season until his retirement after 2002-03. Julius Randle and D'Angelo Russell are the future of the franchise which adds to the added excitement of this home opener. The Timberwolves are expected to struggle again this season after finishing with the worst record in the NBA last season, a miserable 50 games under .500. While preseason games typically do not factor into regular season betting analysis, it is hard to ignore the fact that Minnesota struggled immensely as three of five losses were by 22 or more points and that is a big problem. The Timberwolves won only seven games on the road last season and while the Lakers were not a lot better at home, they were banged up all season. This is a much different team and one that is healthy which is certainly huge in the beginning of the season. 10* (728) Los Angeles Lakers

This is one of the best scenarios to go against on opening day. It is banner day in Golden St. and we know what that means. The Warriors will be lowering their 2014-15 NBA Championship banner on Tuesday night and playing a basketball game is not at the forefront for the players right now. This is a huge event and with that comes a lot of distractions. Players have been saying that once the banner is lowered and the game starts, they will be focused but that is easier said than done. Now let's go back to the NBA Champion angle. Prior NBA Champions are usually slow starting out of the gate the following season since their lines are over-adjusted to start the season. The last 14 NBA Champions (San Antonio, Dallas, Boston, San Antonio four times, Miami three times, Detroit and LA Lakers three times) have combined for a 42-71 ATS mark (37.2 percent) through their first two weeks of the following year. Distractions and overvaluation are definitely keys to this. We have seen it in the season opening game for the reigning NBA Champions for seven of the last nine seasons including last season when the Spurs failed to cover. Golden St. took care of Cleveland to win its first NBA Championship since 1975 and there will be a bullseye on their backs all season. That surely starts tonight for New Orleans which will be out for revenge after getting swept in the Conference Quarterfinals in four games. The Pelicans finished 45-37 last season to finish eighth in the Western Conference and they should only get better. They have covered 28 of their last 42 games as underdogs and will keep this one tight. 10* (505) New Orleans Pelicans

While many are calling for this series to be over already, we are not quite there yet. The Warriors won pivotal Game Five at home and teams that take a 3-2 series lead in the NBA Finals have gone on to win the NBA Championship 35 out of 43 times. But that includes series that have gone the distance as only 25 of those 43 had it ended in six games. The Cavaliers had chances in Game Five but blew a significant lead and were outscored by 11 points in the second half. They have now lost two straight games by double-digits and that is a wake up call heading home in this elimination game. It is unfortunate for Cleveland that injuries have played such a vital role and it has basically turned into a one man show. One player that needs to pick up the slack is J.R. Smith who has gone a dreadful 4-22 from long range the last two games and I believe that he gets the job done tonight. The Warriors are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game while the Cavaliers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. 10* (712) Cleveland Cavaliers

The total has been killing us in this series but now is not the time to lay off as we will come back with the over in Game Five. Golden St. was able to regain home court advantage with a commanding win in Cleveland in Game Four. Now that the Warriors are back home, they can carry the momentum from that game as the offense got back on track. They managed 103 points on 46.8 percent shooting including 40 percent from long range, huge improvements from the previous two games. Cleveland was the problem in Game Four as it shot just 33 percent including a horrid 14.8 percent from long range, missing 23 of 27 attempts. Scoring only 12 points in the fourth quarter was the difference in that one staying under and even though the Cavaliers are now on the road, we will see a better performance offensively. The rest factor should come into play as well as the extra day will benefit both sides, especially Cleveland as fatigue has been a big issue. Going back, the Cavaliers are 38-16 to the over in their last 54 games playing with two days rest and that includes a 60 percent clip this season. 10* Over (709) Cleveland Cavaliers/(710) Golden St. Warriors

After getting destroyed in Game Four at home, many are writing the Cavaliers off in this series and the home court advantage they gained has been lost. The series is even at two games apiece which makes Game Five absolutely pivotal for both sides and while the argument will be it is more important for the Warriors because the next game is in Cleveland, I think it is more important for the victors as a loss forced the Cavaliers to win the final two games including another on this floor. The Warriors have lost only four times at home all season but two of those have been in the postseason including one against Cleveland already. The line is taking the dominant home floor into consideration as Golden St. is favored by the most it has been in this series so far. While an outright win may be farfetched to some, consider the fact that the Cavaliers are coming off a horrible game so a bounce back is imminent and the added time off is a big factor. Cleveland is a perfect 15-0 this season when playing with two days rest and that included the win here last Sunday. Don't count Cleveland out just yet. 10* (709) Cleveland Cavaliers

The zig didn't zag in Game Three for the total as even a 60-point fourth quarter could not keep the game from staying under the total. We will go against the grain again and look for the bounce theory to hold true for Game Four to send this game over the total. The first two games of this series went into overtime and despite that, Game Two stayed well below the total. In Game One, the under would have come in if not for the extra time as it snuck over by a few points. Because of those regulation results, we have seen the over/under go from 203.5 to 199 to 194 to 193 so we are getting over a 10-point swing in a matter of just four games. That is some incredible value and while it was roughly the same last game and did not come through, I expect a different story on Thursday. For one, this Golden St. offense has now been held in check in two straight games and Tuesday represented only the second time all season that the Warriors are under 60 points after three quarters and the first time it happened it was in Game Two. Give Cleveland credit for great defense and Matt Dellavedova has been the key. The problem is he is not 100 perfect and head coach David Blatt said he will limit his minutes because of the cramps and fatigue. Now it's time to see some points. 10* Over (707) Golden St. Warriors/(708) Cleveland Cavaliers

The NBA Finals shifts back to Cleveland where the Cavaliers have obtained home court advantage as they were able to split in Golden St. they come in as a short home underdog but we will be looking at the total tonight where we are getting a very strong number to work with. The first two games of this series have gone into overtime and despite that, the last games stayed well below the total. In Game One, the under would have come in if not for the extra time as it snuck over by a few points. Because of those regulation results, we have seen the over/under go from 203.5 to 199 to 194 so we are getting close to a 10-point swing in a matter of just three games. Both teams have gone under the total in the majority of their games this season but those have come with some high totals as they are a combined 11-7 to the over when the over/under is less than 195. While defense has been the story so far, I expect the shooting to improve tonight and namely, that comes from Stephen Curry where he was just 5-23 from the floor including just 2-15 from long range. The Warriors have scored fewer than 100 points 19 other times this season and they have eclipsed the century mark all but three times in the next game. Meanwhile, the over is 4-0 in Cavaliers last four home games against teams with a winning road record. 10* Over (705) Golden St. Warriors/(706) Cleveland Cavaliers

The Cavaliers and Warriors had no problems reaching the NBA Finals and the matchup that everyone was hoping for. We waited on this line after it came out, anticipating a move toward Cleveland and that is exactly what happened so now is the time to back Golden St. as it would not be at all surprising to see this number go back up by game time next Thursday. The time off was good for both sides to rest and take care of some nagging injuries and when we finally get to playing, the Warriors have a decisive edge on their home floor. They have lost only three times at home all season and there was a very common trait in all three games which was Stephen Curry struggling. He scored just 16, 19 and 21 points in those three defeats while going a combined 4-27 (14.8 percent) from long range and those clearly on not normal number. Neither was 18-point performance in Cleveland in the last meeting where he was just 3-9 from downtown. We talk about statement games for teams but this is a statement game for Curry and expect the best to come out. Cleveland rolled through the Eastern Conference playoffs but the Western Conference is a different beat and the Cavaliers were a pedestrian 18-12 against the west during the regular season. The Warriors get off to the start they need in Game One. 10* (702) Golden St. Warriors

The under came through in the first three games of this series before Game Four easily went over the number by 29 points. Because of that result, we are seeing the total rise back up slightly for Game Five which goes back to Golden St. where the Warriors look to finish off Houston. Like Cleveland last night, they want to end it here to avoid another game and get as much rest as possible. The Cavaliers did it with defense to close out Atlanta and I expect Golden St. to turn up the defense after allowing 128 points on Monday which was the most amount of points they have given up all season. The Warriors have allowed 100 or more points in the playoffs only three times and the first two times they clamped down in the next game. While many take Golden St. as an explosive team that often plays high-scoring games, that couldn't be further from the truth as 42 of their 95 games have stayed below the total. The under is 6-0-1 in the Warriors last seven home games while the under is 9-4 in the Rockets last 13 games against winning teams. Look for Golden St. to regroup on defense which will be the key for a low scoring game tonight. 10* Under (517) Houston Rockets/(518) Golden St. Warriors

We saw the Rockets avoid getting swept by the Warriors last night and Atlanta will try and do the same tonight but the difference is big being on the road as opposed to home. The Hawks are a very respectable 28-20 on the highway but losing a tough game in overtime that could have changed the look of the series will be tough to overcome. Cleveland has won 25 of its last 27 home games and while one of those has come in the postseason against the Bulls, the Hawks have not looked like the same Hawks team during the regular season. They are just 8-7 in the playoffs with half of those wins coming by five points or less against much weaker competition. The Cavaliers played their second consecutive game without point guard Kyrie Irving, who again sat out due to left knee tendinitis. Irving averaged 21.7 points and 5.2 assists during the regular season and is averaging 18.9 points and 3.5 assists in the playoffs. Matthew Dellavedova has filled in and while he is no Irving, he has played very well on both ends of the floor. If there is one team that could use some rest, it is the Cavaliers as they don't want to go back to Atlanta on Thursday and would love nine days off before the NBA Finals start June 4th. 10* (516) Cleveland Cavaliers

While the Rockets may be down 2-0 in this series, they have shown they can hang with the best team in the NBA as two close losses have been the difference. Houston lost all four games during the regular season but those were all blowouts so the Rockets have adjusted to keep things close and returning home is the chance to get back into this series. Falling behind 3-0 simply cannot happen if they want to have any chance and they are in a solid spot tonight based on the fact they are a home underdog. Houston has been a home dog nine times during the season and has won six of those outright while covering seven of those. This including winning both of these situation against the Clippers in the postseason. Winning these close games is certainly a positive for Golden St. as that is what the elite teams do in the postseason. But those were at home where the Warriors have lost just three times all season and now they hit the road where they are still very good but very vulnerable. Golden St. is just 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games following a win while the Rockets are 24-9 ATS in their last 33 games following a loss. 10* (510) Houston Rockets

We lost with the Hawks in Game One but will come back with them here in what is a must win spot to stay in the series. Atlanta looked particularly good in the first half against the Cavaliers but a poor start to the second half put them behind by double-digits and they could not recover. The difference in that first game was simple. The overall shooting was very even but Cleveland was 10-26 from long range while the Hawks went just 4-23 from beyond the arc and that was the obvious difference. The majority came from J.R. Smith who was an unconscious 8-12 from three-point land from off the bench. Do not expect a repeat from him and we can expect a better showing from Atlanta as well. That was just the eighth home loss of the season for Atlanta compared to 40 wins and the Hawks have not lost consecutive home games all season, going a perfect 7-0 in their next home game after losing their previous home game. Additionally, Atlanta has covered its last four playoff games coming off a non-cover and while it has already lost home court advantage in this series, Atlanta knows it has to get the job done tonight. 10* (508) Atlanta Hawks

The under came in for Game One of this series and it was pretty fortunate for under bettors as a 113-point first half was followed up by a 103-point second half. We are not seeing a huge move going into Game Two and after neither teams shot lights out, I think we are going to see a shootout tonight. When you think Golden St., you think offense and while that is the case, the Warriors have been on a huge under run. They have stayed below the total in seven of their last eight games but a lot of that is due to the opposition and the pace involved. Golden St. is coming off two series against the third slowest and sixth slowest teams in the league in term of pace and in this series, they are facing the only team faster than them. Only six teams have averaged 170 or more shot attempts per game combined on offense and defense and these two teams are part of that group. Obviously the ball has to go in the hole for this to be high scoring but I expect much better shooting tonight than we saw on Tuesday. While the Warriors under trends have been dominating, the Rockets offset that as they are 5-1 to the over in their last six road games and 11-5 to the over after scoring 100 or more points last time out. 10* Over (505) Houston Rockets/(506) Golden St. Warriors

Cleveland and Atlanta had identical series in the Eastern Conference semis as both lost the opener, won Game Two, lost Game Three on the road and went on the win the final three games, two of which were on the highway. Those finishes do not give us a clear indicator of which team is better equipped to start this series strong but I give the edge to Atlanta for being home as well as the line value aspect. The Cavaliers were getting two and half points in Game Six in Chicago and are now getting just one point against the best team in the Eastern Conference. Atlanta took three of four against Cleveland during the regular season and while LeBron James did miss one of those games that the Hawks won, they outplayed the Cavaliers in the other two wins and this is no doubt a statement game for Atlanta as they are still being considered the underdog in this series. The Hawks want to and probably need to come out strong as a Game One loss really puts the pressure on them in Game Two which they do not need. Atlanta ha lost at home only seven times all season and going back, they are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games against teams with a winning road record while the Cavaliers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a win of more than 10 points. 10* (504) Atlanta Hawks

The top two seeds from each conference made the conference finals but it certainly was not a given, especially for the Rockets. They trailed the Clippers in their conference semi three games to one but rolled at home in Game Five, had a miraculous comeback in Game Six and never trailed in Game Seven to take the series. Those last three victories were all as underdogs which shows a lot of character but now the challenge is even greater. Facing top seed Golden St. will have an added element as Houston will try and rebound from losing all four meeting during the regular season, all of which were decided by double digits. That is a big reason the Rockets are catching double-digits here and I simply think it is too many points in this spot even more so considering they have not been a double-digit underdog all season long. The Warriors are a great team there is no doubt but asking any team to win by double-digits in a conference final against an elite team is asking too much. Houston has covered five straight games following a double-digit win and the confidence that came from that series comeback will still be there thanks to having only one day off heading into Game One. 10* (501) Houston Rockets

The Rockets are coming off an incredible comeback in Game Six to force the decisive Game Seven on their home floor Sunday. The Clippers meltdown was shocking as they blew a 19-point lead only to go on to lose by 12 points and the sting of that defeat is going to be hard to recover from. Even more surprising is the fact that Houston got it done without James Harden for the most part who didn't even play in the fourth quarter which shows how dangerous this team is from top to bottom. Houston has won the last two games played here including a 21-point romp in Game Five to keep the series alive and yet are still getting points and in this case, I believe the wrong team is favored once again. The Rockets are a very impressive 35-12 at home and while they have been one of the best teams in the league this season coming off a double-digit loss, they are 4-0 ATS in their last four games coming off a double-digit win. The improbable series comeback is culminated on Sunday. 10* (752) Houston Rockets

After losing this total the last two games, we are jumping on again party to the law of averages but also because we are now really seeing some value and a lot of the same jargon goes along with it. We have now seen the first five games of this series all stay under the number which sets up a great opportunity tonight to see the highest scoring game through the first six contests. The over/under has now moved 4-4.5 points from the last game due the low scoring games that have stayed below the number by close to double-digits each time. Tonight is the lowest of the bunch by over a bucket and the linesmakers are well aware that if they move this number too much, the over could get hammered which would set up a big liability for them. This is only the second time all season that Golden St. has had a total of less than 195 and that game ended up going over the number. While the Memphis defense can be considered a key reason, the Grizzlies are allowing opponents to shooting over 44.1 percent on the season including 45.9 percent at home, both of which are higher than what Golden St. allows. The Warriors offense just has not been in synch this series due to the pace but this is certainly the game to get it going and while the trends for the under are numerous, we will go against all of those and cash in a high scoring ticket. 10* Over (747) Golden St. Warriors/(748) Memphis Grizzlies

This game sets up very similar to the Cleveland game last night and I expect a similar result where the much better team is coming off a pair of wins to take control of the series and is getting points in a must win situation for the opposition. Like the Cavaliers, Atlanta wants to end it here even though the final game would be at home where it was dominant all season long. Game Five was obviously a crucial one and the Hawks came away with the last second victory which will provide some serious momentum heading into Game Six. The Wizards were in control of the last game as they held an 11-point lead late in the fourth quarter only to let it go and even though they are back home, that is a tough game to recover from. For as good as John Wall's return was needed in Game Five, how long both he and the Wizards last in these playoffs will hinge on the durability of his hand. Everything seems to be fine but he is not 100 percent and you could see some issues, namely poor shooting and a team high six turnovers. Washington is just 5-10 ATS this season as a short-priced favorite of less than four points and have been pretty poor coming off a loss, going just 14-23-2 ATS. The Hawks meanwhile are 26-14 ATS against winning teams and like Cleveland, they avoid a seventh game and get some much needed rest before facing the Cavaliers. 10* (745) Atlanta Hawks

Despite winning two of the last three games, the Cavaliers have been unable to cover any of those but that changes tonight as they look to close out this series to avoid going back home for a Game Seven where anything can happen. Cleveland fell behind 2-1 through the first three games but has been able to sneak out two close wins over the last two games to regain control and put itself into good position to make a trip to the Eastern Conference Finals. LeBron James is coming off his best game of the series with 35 points and 12 rebounds and most importantly, not a single turnover. This is the time he can literally take over a series and Chicago knows it. The Bulls probably have seen too much of James, who has a 15-5 playoff record against Chicago since 2010 and most of the time, James was the difference. Chicago is ailing with Pau Gasol retaking the court tonight but not close to full health while Derrick Rose is once again dragging, this time with a wrist injury. Going back further, the Bulls have covered six of the last seven meetings this season but that helps us in getting a better line. Additionally, the Cavaliers are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. 10* (741) Cleveland Cavaliers

We lost with this total Monday but will come back with it tonight with the change of venue probably playing a big role. We have seen the first four games of this series all stay under the number which sets up a great opportunity tonight to see the highest scoring game through the first five contests. The over/under has not moved much despite the low scoring games that have stayed below the number by close to double-digits each time. Tonight is the lowest of the bunch and even though not by much, the linesmakers are well aware that if they move this number too much, the over could get hammered which would set up a big liability for them. The Warriors offense played their best game since the opener and while the Memphis defense will likely try and slow it down, this Golden St. offense is due to bust out at home where it has averaged 112 ppg on 49.3 percent shooting. Obviously, the under is on a role and the trends favor those once again but we will again go contrarian and look for the first shootout in this series. 10* Over (739) Memphis Grizzlies/(740) Golden St. Warriors

It is obviously must win time for Houston as it trails the Clippers three games to one in this series after getting blown out in consecutive games in Los Angeles. We were on the wrong side in both of those unfortunately but a return home will get the Rockets back in gear and to be able to extend the series at least one more game. Obviously, the Chris Paul injury affected the line in the first two games in Houston but we are seeing a minimum 10-point line swing from then to now and that is absolutely way too much of a variance. The Rockets plan on Sunday completely backfired as Houston's fouling strategy did little to improve its chances as Los Angeles ended up with a playoff-high point total after averaging 116.7 ppg over the first three games. The home crowd will be a much needed edge for the Rockets as they look to improve upon their 34-12 record at home and while they did fair to cover the last game, they are still a solid 12-3 ATS over their last 15 games coming off a double-digit loss. 10* (736) Houston Rockets

The top seeds from each conference are down 2-1 in their series and both need to win on the road tonight to avoid a 3-1 deficit which will makes things extremely tough going forward. Memphis has taken the last two games in this series and to no surprise, it is again a home underdog in what is pretty much a must win for the Warriors. We are concentrating on the total tonight however as we have seen the first three games of this series all stay under the number which sets up a great opportunity tonight to see the highest scoring game through the first four. The over/under has not moved much despite the low scoring games that have stayed below the number by close to double-digits each time. While the Memphis defense can be considered a key reason, the Grizzlies are allowing opponents to shooting over 44 percent on the season including 45.8 percent at home, both of which are higher than what Golden St. allows. The Warriors offense just has not been in synch the last two games but this is certainly the game to get it going and while the trends for the under are numerous, we will go against all of those and cash in a high scoring ticket. 10* Over (731) Golden St. Warriors/(732) Memphis Grizzlies

We lost with the Rockets on Friday as they trailed by as many as 32 points in what resulted in a 25-point defeat. Houston has yet to cover in this series and the line is portraying that with the Rockets getting a huge number today. Losing consecutive games has been a rarity all season for Houston as it is 21-7 on the season following a defeat while covering 20 of those games. Additionally, the Rockets are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games following a double-digit loss. The Clippers covered for just the second time in their last 10 home games and while their 33-13 record at home is impressive, the 26-17 road record for the Rockets is just as impressive so they have the confidence knowing that they can tie this series up on the highway before heading back home. Houston knows full well it cane rebound after all, the Clippers lost by 27 points in Game Three to the Spurs in the first round, falling behind 2-1 in the series only to come back and beat the Spurs in San Antonio in Game Four to even the series. 10* (727) Houston Rockets

Despite outshooting Chicago and holding the biggest lead of the game at one point, the Cavaliers dropped Game Three of this series and will be in a must win situation to avoid going into a big hole heading back home. The difference last game was from the free throw line as Cleveland wax outscored 25-18 from the charity stripe which was the ultimate difference. LeBron James had an awful shooting game as did Kyrie Irving and like they did in Game Two after Game One struggles, I expect both to pick it up today. The Bulls still have big concerns, with Pau Gasol iffy with a strained hamstring that rendered him unable to play in much of the second half of the Game Three win on Friday night. He is questionable today which further improves Cleveland's dominance down low. The Cavaliers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following an ATS loss. The line shift from the last game is skewed toward a Cleveland win which is more than expected Sunday. 10* (725) Cleveland Cavaliers

After dropping the opener of this series, Atlanta bounced back on Tuesday to even the series and has a chance tonight to regain home court advantage. The Hawks took advantage of a 22-8 edge at the free throw line in Game Two and while they cannot count on that again, they do have the big edge down low. Atlanta's starting front court of DeMarre Carroll, Paul Millsap and Al Horford combined to outscore the Washington starting frontcourt of Paul Pierce, Nene, and Marcin Gortat 58-27. While the backcourt did not play particularly well, I see that getting better here. The loss of John Wall is huge for Washington and while Ramon Sessions played excellent in his absence, he cannot be consistently counted on the way Wall can be. The line has not shifted in our favor but I do not expect to make a difference as the Hawks are 23-9-1 ATS in their last 33 games against teams with a winning record while the Wizards are 5-23-2 ATS in their last 30 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. 10* (721) Atlanta Hawks

We often talk about line value and this is a great example of it. Houston lost the home court edge in this series after dropping Game One but it can regain it with a victory tonight and the Rockets are getting an outstanding line on top of it. They were favored by 7.5 points in the first two home games, the second game line was not adjusted due to the Chris Paul injury, which should make them close to a pick or a one-point dog but instead they are getting 4.5 points in some cases. That makes this a ridiculous line swing. Going back to the San Antonio series, the venue switch line swing were all between seven and nine points which is a typical move. Obviously, Los Angeles has a strong home floor where it is 32-13 but the status of Paul is still up in the air as he is questionable. His absence is huge as in Game One, the Clippers turned the ball over 23 times and in Game Two, the Clippers offense moved away from team ball, settling for one-on-one plays and in both instances, Paul would have helped. Even if he does go, he will be far from 100 percent. The Clippers are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 home games against teams with a road winning percentage of greater than .600 while the Rockets are 24-7 ATS in their last 31 games following an ATS loss. 10* (719) Houston Rockets

The Rockets opened up a big early lead against the Clippers in Game One as they led by as many as 13 points but costly turnovers and too many missed free throws have put Houston in a whole. Like Cleveland, the Rockets can ill afford to hit the road down 2-0 in the series so they have to take advantage of how important the home floor is and how good it has been to them particularly. They are 33-12 on their home floor and will come out with hopefully the same energy as they did in Game One and be able to sustain it. Give credit to the Clippers as they easily could have folded early in Game One but they hung tough and mounted a big comeback to win comfortably. A lot of that was handed to them however with the Houston miscues and Los Angeles had not better be looking forward to such good fortunes again tonight. Chris Paul sat out the first game with a hamstring injury and he has been downgraded to doubtful for tonight. While some say it may be a gametime decision, it is likely the Clippers will not force it to make it worse especially that they already have a game in hand. The Rockets are 12-1 ATS in their last 13 games following a double-digit loss. 10* (716) Houston Rockets

The Bulls cashed a ticket for us Monday as they led wire-to-wire and took advantage of a Cleveland team that was without two key contributors and was on an eight-day layoff. The Cavaliers will still be without Kevin Love, who is gone for the season, and J.R. Smith, who is serving the second game of a two-game suspension but I expect the home team to bounce back here. The Cavaliers had won 22 of their previous 23 home games but shockingly never even led in Game One as it was an offensive clinic for the Bulls for the better part of three quarters, despite the score not reaching triple digits. They shot 50 percent from the field and 56 percent from three-point range, turning the ball over just 10 times and totaling 23 assists. That type of efficiency will be nearly impossible to duplicate tonight. On the other side, LeBron James and Kyrie Irving combined for 49 points, but it was on 19-for-45 shooting. It was the first time in James' storied career that his team never led in a home playoff game, a span of 85 games so I expect him to take over tonight in what he even called a horrible game played by himself. The Cavaliers have already lost home court advantage so going down 2-0 in the series would be detrimental. 10* (714) Cleveland Cavaliers

Memphis led very early against Golden St. on Sunday but fell behind shortly thereafter and could not recover. The Grizzlies didn't play bad overall as many of the numbers were equivalent to those of Golden St. but the difference of the game was from behind the arc as the Warriors nailed 13 three-pointers while Memphis was just 3-12 from long range, and that will have to improve even though the Grizzlies are not known to be a big three-point shooting team. We are playing the bounce angle here with Golden St. covering Game One as Memphis is getting a little bit of added value and even though the Grizzlies did not cover the first game, this is just the second game they have been double-digit underdogs all season. Memphis was without Mike Conley in Game One but he is expected to be back tonight and his presence is big on both sides of the floor. He's a great backcourt defender and the defensive communication system involves Conley relaying play-calls not to mention the fact he led the team with 107 three-pointers on the season. The Grizzlies are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games following a loss while the Warriors are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games following a win. 10* (711) Memphis Grizzlies

The time off did not affect Golden St. as we thought it might but it was the Memphis lack of production from long range that was the big difference Sunday. Cleveland is going through a similar situation as it has not played a game in eight days and it will have to take the floor tonight without two key players as Kevin Love is done for the season while J.R. Smith is suspended for the first two games of this series. That will leave the Cavaliers in a tough spot to try and find somewhere to make up for that lost production and the fact they have to been able to do anything but practice is a detriment. Chicago had a 3-0 lead on Milwaukee but could not close it out early and actually got taken to six games where the Bulls won the series thanks to a 54-point Game Six drubbing. They have had three days off which is a good break as it allows rest but not too much to have the rust settle in. Chicago has to take advantage of its solid defense that has been a lot better since all of the regular starters have been back in place and will have to take advantage of its big advantage in the frontcourt. Chicago is 5-1 ATS in its last six games after a win . 10* (703) Chicago Bulls

Memphis and Golden St. had pretty similar paths to this Western Conference semifinal series as they were both able to coast without much trouble. The Grizzlies took care of Portland in five games while the Warriors swept the Pelicans in what was a tougher than expect series despite being able to win all four games. Golden St. ended its series on April 25th, right when Memphis was still only playing Game Three and that is a big factor in my opinion. The Grizzlies have had three days off which is sufficient rest this time of season while the Warriors have been off for a week and that is a detriment as rust can certainly settle in. These teams played here back in mid-April and Golden St. did win the game but it came by just four points as an eight-point favorite. So while we are not only getting an added basket here, this is the most amount of points the Grizzlies have gotten this season. The Warriors are right at .500 against the number as double-digit favorite and I think is way to much to be laying against a quality opponent. Additionally, they are just 1-7 ATS in their last eight games following a victory. 10* (701) Memphis Grizzlies

Home court has not been an advantage in this series as the road team has won four of the first six games including the last three following a Clippers win in San Antonio to send the series back here for a decisive Game Seven. I think the home floor will be a big edge tonight however and the Clippers take the series with bookend victories. Despite two straight wins here by San Antonio by identical 111-107 scores, Los Angeles is still 31-13 at home on the season while the Spurs are just four games over .500 on the highway. This is the second straight year that the Spurs have had to play a first round Game Seven. The Spurs went on to win their fifth championship last season after defeating the Mavericks at home, but San Antonio is just 1-3 in Game Seven's on the road in their history. Going back, they are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 road games against teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. The game should be an entertaining one and we will see the Clippers advance into the second round. 10* (552) Los Angeles Clippers

This is the final series that is still going on in the Eastern Conference and that is a surprise for sure as the Hawks entered as the No. 1 seed but are on the brink of a possible Game Seven on Sunday. You have to give credit where credit is due and Atlanta had an outstanding regular season but the Hawks are arguably one of the weakest top seeds in the NBA playoffs that we have seen in quite some time. Their run in January has to be commended but ever since a loss at Philadelphia in early March, they have been average at best, going 14-12 over their last 26 games. Atlanta failed to cover the first four games of this series but cashed in Game Five by a single point as a nine-point favorite and come in overpriced once again. The Nets are hanging tough and their 15-9 over their last 24 games is solid. They were close to putting Atlanta in a tough hole but were on the wrong side of a 10-2 run to end the game on Wednesday and while the home floor has not been great this season, the Nets are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games against teams with a winning road record. Atlanta has not covered a road game since April 8th which coincidentally came here when it won by three points as a 4.5-point underdog, showing how far this line id off once again. 10* (538) Brooklyn Nets

We have seen the last two games of this series fly over the total but with a lot at stake tonight, I see a much lower scoring game and we are getting value on top of it. Game Four closed with a 202.5 total and Game Five closed only slightly higher at 203 but now we are seeing a three-point shift from Tuesday to now and a lot of that is based upon the results of the last two games. We talk about the bounce angle in the playoffs and while it is typically used for the pointspread, the shifts in the over/unders make it a valuable totals tool as well. The most recent example came in the Atlanta/Brooklyn series where the first three games all stayed under the total but Game Four easily eclipsed the number and even though there were three straight games that went under, the likelihood of three straight games going over here is a lot less. While both Los Angeles and San Antonio are considered high scoring teams, and that is a fact, the linesmakers know what they are doing which is a reason that both teams have seen the under cash at a high clip this season. The under is 7-2 in the Clippers last nine games coming off a loss and 11-5 in their last 16 games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. Meanwhile, the Spurs have been a higher scoring team when playing poor opposition and they are 9-17 to the under this season when favored by fewer than six points. 10* Under (535) Los Angeles Clippers/(536) San Antonio Spurs

This game sets up strikingly similar to the Dallas/Houston game last night and I think the result will be just the same. The Blazers played with some pride on Monday as they made a late push in the fourth quarter to win and cover and avoid the four-game sweep to the Grizzlies. Additionally, they also snapped their seven-game losing streak to Memphis. Now they head back out on the road where things have not been good recently as they have dropped six straight, both straight up and against the number and this has been a bad situation all year as Portland is 2-9 ATS this season as an underdog of five or more points. Going back further, the Blazers are 0-7 ATS in their last seven road games against teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. The Grizzlies would like to wrap it up at home and avoid another trip to Portland which would also take time away for additional rest. The Grizzlies have won and covered their last four home games and they have also covered their last four games following a loss. In Game Four, the Blazers outrebounded Memphis 50-40, had a 22-9 edge in second-chance points and a 40-38 advantage in points in the paint, three statistical categories the Grizzlies excel in so we will see a reversal at home. The Grizzlies will still be without Mike Conley who is coming off surgery for fractured bones in his face and while he will be missed again, Memphis has the depth to take care of this. 10* (528) Memphis Grizzlies

The Mavericks avoided playoff elimination and getting swept by the Rockets with a 12-point win on Sunday and they look to keep the momentum rolling on Tuesday but I just do not see it happening. Last night, Milwaukee was able to parlay its Game Four win in a Game Five road win which shows it can be done by teams backed up against a wall but this has been a very unfavorable spot for Dallas all season and the worst in the entire NBA by a longshot. They are 0-12 ATS this season when getting four or more points so not only have they not been winning, they haven't been competitive against teams that are given a sizable edge. Those 12 losses have come by an average of 14.7 ppg and only one defeat was by less than what Dallas is getting tonight. On top of that, injuries are never an excuse for losing, and the Mavericks certainly aren't making excuses, but there comes a time when a team suffers so many injuries that it becomes compromised and that is the case here. The Rockets want to close this one out at home and avoid going back to Dallas because anything can happen with two games left and the Rockets want some time off before starting the second round. Houston is 32-11 at home and has dominated in the favorite role. Additionally, the Rockets are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a double-digit loss. 10* (518) Houston Rockets

Three series are in the books as Golden St., Cleveland and Washington have all advanced following 4-0 sweeps in their series. Dallas was the only team to avoid a sweep thus far as it beat Houston yesterday and now it is up to Portland to avoid an early exit. The Blazers played tow absolutely horrible games in Memphis and we backed them to get it done in Game Three at home but came out slow and never even had a lead. The Blazers are now 32-10 at home which is the fourth best home record in the NBA and now it is all about pride and then hope for some magic going forward. Motivation will be no issue as Portland will try to solve the Memphis dominance over them as they have lost all seven meetings this season to the Grizzlies while not even covering one of those. Overall, Portland has lost seven straight games while not covering any of those and the Grizzlies have six straight covers. Their issue is that Mike Conley is out tonight and will likely be out for a while following bad facial injuries. The Grizzlies are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. We go contrarian once again here as the Blazers are able to extend the series for at least one more game. 10* (514) Portland Trailblazers

After dropping the over in this one Saturday, we are coming back with it again for all of the same reasons and we are seeing even greater value now. We have seen the first three games of this series go under the total but I expect that to change tonight. While the over was never even in jeopardy during the first three games, we are seeing a shift in the total which we can take advantage of. Game One closed at 205, Game Two closed at 202.5 and Game Three closed at 199 and we are seeing a similar shift into Game Four. It is also interesting to note that these two teams played in April during the regular season and those totals were also higher that what we are seeing tonight and those gamers resulted in easy overs, posting 230 and 225 points. Atlanta has a combined offensive and defensive shooting percentage of 90.2 percent while Brooklyn has a combined shooting percentage of 90.3 percent with offense and defense and anytime you can get two teams that are both over 90 percent, as long as the pace is in our favor, we have a great chance to surpass the total. Going back, the over is 7-3 in the Hawks last 10 road games while the over is 12-4 in the Nets last 16 games following a win. 10* Over (509) Atlanta Hawks/(510) Brooklyn Nets

This has been a horrible first round of the NBA postseason as far as entertaining value and betting on our part as the public is absolutely cleaning up right now. Four playoff series are sitting at 3-0 with another already in the book with Golden St. sweeping the Pelicans. This is one of the two series that are still interesting at 2-1 and with Atlanta/Brooklyn being the other, this one has the ability to be the best of the first round. After winning the opening game, the Clippers lost at home against San Antonio in Game Two in overtime and then they put up their worst offensive performance of the season by far in Game Three but that should be a huge motivator today. From a value standpoint, we are on the right side as this line is a point and a half higher than it was on Friday based on the lopsided 27-point victory for San Antonio. The Clippers have lost two straight games for just the third time since early February and even after Friday, they are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine road games. This line has entered a good range for them as well as they have covered three of four games this season as underdogs of six or more points and the underdog is still a potent 11-5 ATS the last 15 meetings in this series. 10* (503) Los Angeles Clippers

It has been an unprecedented postseason thus far and teams covering the spread and been continuing to do so. In the eight playoff series, the team that covered Game One has an incredible 11-3 ATS record going forward throughout the series so playing the team off a cover has been very lucrative thus far. Followers know that I am not one of those we are more contrarian than anything and there is a very good chance this evens out before it is all said and done so we will keep riding the bounce angle. Two series can be closed out tonight and we will avoid those as it is hard to gauge how those teams down 3-0 will respond but we will be backing the Blazers which are down 2-0 to Memphis and coming off two horrible games on the road. The Blazers fell to 19-24 on the highway but they head home with a 32-9 record which is the fourth best home record in the NBA and they can get right back in this series. Motivation will be no issue as Portland will try to solve the Memphis dominance over them as they have lost all six meetings this season to the Grizzlies while not even covering one of those., This is as contrarian as it can get and we see the Blazers responding in a big way tonight in front of their home crowd. 10* (752) Portland Trailblazers

We have seen the first two games of this series go under the total but I expect that to change this afternoon and we are getting value on top of it. While the over was never even in jeopardy during the first two games, we are seeing a shift in the total which we can take advantage of. Game One closed at 205 and Game Two closed at 202.5 and we are seeing a similar shift into Game Three. It is also interesting to note that these two teams played in April during the regular season and those totals were also higher that what we are seeing tonight and those gamers resulted in easy overs, posting 230 and 225 points. Atlanta has a combined offensive and defensive shooting percentage of 90.4 percent while Brooklyn has a combined shooting percentage of 90.6 percent with offense and defense and anytime you can get two teams that are both over 90 percent, as long as the pace is in our favor, we have a great chance to surpass the total. Going back, the over is 4-1 in the Hawks last five road games against teams with a losing home record while the over is 5-1 in the Nets last six home games against teams with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. 10* Over (745) Atlanta Hawks/(746) Brooklyn Nets

The Raptors have put themselves into a big hole, losing both games at home to open the series and are now forced to win one road game to stay within reach and forced to win two road games to claim home court back. This is one of seven of the eight playoff series where one team has at least a 2-0 edge which has made for some of the worst postseason basketball we have seen in years. Making it even worse it the bounce angle has fallen flat this season with San Antonio being the first team to cover following a cover loss the previous game. That Spurs cover could signal a turnaround after the angle opened the playoffs a dismal 0-8 ATS. The big issue for Toronto in the first two games was the play, or lack thereof, from Kyle Lowry. He scored just seven points in Game One and then put up only six points in Game Two prior to leaving the game with a shin injury. Even though he did not return, the injury is not considered serious and he will be back tonight but it is imperative for him to produce like he did during the regular season, averaging 17.8 ppg. Despite the cover last time out, the Wizards are 4-23-2 ATS in their last 29 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. A change of atmosphere could help the Raptors which have covered five of their last six trips here. 10* (741) Toronto Raptors

We are 0-2 on the Bucks in this series and we will back them tonight at home as they look to get back into this series. One of my arguments for Milwaukee has been its defensive presence during the regular season as it was fourth in the NBA in defensive efficiency and led the league in forcing turnovers. Game One was not a good one for the defense but the Bucks improved immensely in Game Two sans for not being able to contain Jimmy Butler. Take away his numbers and the rest of the Bulls shot 33.9 percent and with the series shifting to Milwaukee, this is a game it can steal. Chicago has won and covered six straight games and that is playing with this line as based on the venue change, this game should be around a pickem based on the lines from the first two games in Chicago. Instead, we are seeing only a 4.5-point swing which given even more value to the Bucks tonight. The Bulls have now won nine straight home games but are just 4-9 in their last 13 road games while the Bucks are 27-16 ATS this season following a loss. The Bucks ended a nine-game home losing streak to the Bulls with a 95-91 victory April 1st so the confidence from that knows they can get back into the series tonight. 10* (736) Milwaukee Bucks

Portland has picked the wrong time to match it longest losing streak of the season as it has reach five games and extending that means a 2-0 deficit in the series before heading home. The Blazers played terrible in the first game of this series as they never led, trailed by as many 29 points and were killed down low, getting outscored 52-38 in the paint. Portland has not had a lead in three straight games now as its last lead came in the fourth quarter against Utah back on April 11th. This is a much better team than what was on display Sunday and the extra day off between games helps them more than it benefits the Grizzlies. Memphis has won two in a row while covering four straight games and after closing as a 5.5-point favorite in Game One, the Grizzlies are being asked to lay a little bit more tonight but this fit perfectly into the bounce angle for this second game. Memphis has owned this series on the season, winning and covering all four regular season meetings and while I don't promote road revenge, the value is clearly on the road side desperate for a bounce back victory. The Grizzlies are just 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games following a win while going 2-7 after scoring 100 or more points in their last game. Portland has won eight of 10 games this season when playing with two days rest and I look for that to continue here as an outright win if far from out of the question. 10* (729) Portland Trailblazers

We lost a tough one with Toronto in the opener of this series as the Raptors rallied from a 15-point deficit to force overtime only to lose by seven points as they were outscored 11-4 in the extra frame. It was an odd game where neither offense could get any consistency going, long range shooting was dismal on both sides and there were very few free throws throughout. I expect the Raptors to hold serve on their home floor and while the home court advantage in the series is lost for now, they at least will not be completely out of the series before hitting the road to Washington. The Wizards captured a rare quality road win and they have not been great in these spots. As mentioned prior to Saturday, going back to late-January when they went to Portland, the Wizards have played 23 road games, 11 of which were against current playoff teams. Washington is 2-9 in those games and while some were close, the average loss in those nine games was 12.2 ppg. Overall, they are six games under .500 on the highway. This plays right into the bounce angle playoff theory and while the Bucks came up a point short and Golden St. came up three points short last night, those were based on Game One cover losses and this is based on an outright defeat. Look for the Raptors to take control tonight and even up this series. 10* (724) Toronto Raptors

We lost with the Bucks on Saturday night in Chicago but we are coming back with them here for pretty much the same reasoning as then. . The Bucks aren't going to be on many people's radars in the Eastern Conference that will likely come down to Cleveland and Atlanta but this team is capable of putting a scare into some. Milwaukee has the traits that can make them dangerous come playoff time as it is fourth in the NBA in defensive efficiency and led the league in forcing turnovers. The difference in Game One was from long range as Milwaukee managed to go just 4-16 from behind the arc while Chicago nailed 12 three-pointers. The defense just wasn't in tune with the exception of the fourth quarter but I expect a much better effort tonight overall. Chicago has won five in a row which sets up a good contrarian play against and going back, the Bulls are 8-17 ATS in their last 25 games following an ATS win. Meanwhile, the Bucks have covered four of their last five games following a double-digit loss and on the season, they are 27-15 ATS following a defeat of any kind. Additionally, Chicago is just 6-15 ATS this season as a favorite of eight or more points and while an outright Milwaukee win is not out of the question, we will grab the points again in what will be a much more competitive game than we saw on Saturday. 10* (717) Milwaukee Bucks

The Spurs loss in the last game of the regular season against New Orleans was the most costly defeat on that last day of any other team making the postseason as it dropped them from the No. 2 seed all the way down to the No. 6 seed. There is only a one game separation between those seedings so while the matchups are even, having the home court advantage is enormous, especially for the Clippers in this matchup. These teams have not met since February and both teams have changed quite a bit since then with Los Angeles riding some serious momentum. The Clippers have won seven straight games as well as 14 of their last 15 with the only loss coming against overall No. 1 seed Golden St. by just four points so they come in as the hottest team in the league. San Antonio had that claim until Wednesday as it was riding an 11-game winning streak prior to losing against the Pelicans and it was also on a 14-1 run going back further. With similar streaks from both sides, we would expect the number to be a pickem on a neutral floor which would make the Clippers about a four-point favorite at home but we are not seeing that here so not only are we riding the Clippers momentum but we are riding the great home value. They haven't covered at home in five straight games but looking at the lines will tell you why. The Spurs are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 road games against teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. 10* (716) Los Angeles Clippers

The hottest team entering the playoffs in the Eastern Conference isn't one of the top teams but it is No. 7 seed Boston, winning of six straight games to make it into the playoffs. The Celtics run looks impressive with five of those wins coming against playoff teams but it is definitely skewed with two of those coming against a Cleveland team not at full strength including one game where all starters sat and then another game against Milwaukee where benches were emptied after playoff seeding were determined from other games being played. Now comes the second season and while it was a great story, Boston does not have the talent or the physicality to match up here in the postseason with the Cavaliers. Cleveland will be out to make a statement in this opener as it not only want to avenge the two late season losses against the Celtics but also wants to send a message to the rest of the conference in this Sunday opener. The Cavaliers started slow due to the chemistry not being there but they finished the season with the best record in the league since mid-January, going 34-9 over their last 43 games. Only 12 of those wins were by single digits and they all came by an average of 14.3 ppg. This is a big number to be laying against a team that has won six straight games but I think it will prove to not be enough. 10* (710) Cleveland Cavaliers

One team that others need to be weary of in the postseason is Milwaukee. The Bucks aren't going to be on many people's radars in the Eastern Conference that will likely come down to Cleveland and Atlanta but this team is capable of putting a scare into some. Milwaukee has the traits that can make them dangerous come playoff time as it is fourth in the NBA in defensive efficiency and led the league in forcing turnovers. Not many saw this coming after the Bucks finished with the worst record in the NBA last season but the personnel changes along with the hiring of head coach Jason Kidd did wonders. Chicago won its final four games of the regular season to hold off Toronto for the third seed in the Eastern Conference and with the return of Derrick Rose, some are picking the Bulls as a sleeper team to make a run at the NBA Finals. I' not one of them. While talent is there, injuries have really hurt the Bulls and not just because of missed games but because of continuity. The preferred starting five of Mike Dunleavy, Derrick Rose, Jimmy Butler, Pau Gasol and Joakim Noah has made just 21 appearances together. The Bucks have the length and grit to rein in Gasol and Noah as well as the lateral quickness to contend with Butler and Rose on the perimeter. This is a vital game for both sides but I think the Bulls are getting a little too much credit with this line and Milwaukee keeps it closer than most expect. 10* (705) Milwaukee Bucks

A year of expereience can go a long way for Toronto. The Raptors came into the postseason last year as a very inexperienced team, lost a late lead in Game One allowing Paul Pierce and the Nets steal that one and then eventually lose the series in seven games. Look for a very focused effort Saturday afternoon as grabbing the first game is at the forefront to avoid a repeat of last season. Speaking of Pierce, he has been running his mouth and has given Toronto additional motivation and on Wednesday night after the Raptors beat the Hornets, DeMar DeRozan told Toronto reporters that Pierce might not want to see the Raptors in the playoffs before the matchups were made official later that night. Washington dropped a pair of overtime games on the road to close out the regular season and fall to 17-24 on the highway. Two of those losses came at the Air Canada Centre where Toronto has covered seven of the last 10 meetings. It gets even worse than that though as going back to late-January went they went to Portland, the Wizards have played 22 road games, 10 of which were against current playoff teams. Washington went 1-9 in those games and while some were close, the average loss in those nine games was 12.2 ppg. The Wizards are a dreadful 3-23-2 ATS in their last 28 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game while going 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 games playing on two days rest. 10* (702) Toronto Raptors

All but two teams are in action tonight and with 14 games going on, there would seem to be a lot of opportunities out there but there actually aren't. Numerous teams will be resting starters, teams that need to win that are playing non-playoff teams have seen their lines skyrocket and then there are the non-payoff matchups where anything can happen. We are playing on a game that is meaningful for both sides and we are getting great value on the home team based on recent runs. Memphis has lost two straight and Indiana has won seven straight and we are getting a short price because of it. Memphis can now only be the five or six seed in the Western Conference. If the Spurs and Rockets win it doesn't matter what the Grizzlies do, they are the sixth seed. The Grizzlies can climb to the five seed if they beat Indiana while Houston loses to the Jazz. If the Rockets and Grizzlies win but the Spurs lose then Memphis climbs to the five seed also. The good thing is that all of these teams play at the same time so they won't know their fate until their game is completed. Being No. 5 or No. 6 doesn't seem like a huge difference but in fact it is. The No. 5 seed gets to host Portland in the first round even though the Blazers are the higher seed so this is a huge game for the Grizzlies. This is big for the Pacers to make it into the playoffs but coming off that game last night will be tough as they are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games when their starting five players combine for more than 160 minutes of the previous day. 10* (522) Memphis Grizzlies

With Chicago winning last night, Toronto is now a half-game behind the Bulls for third place in the Eastern Conference. The difference between third and fourth place is who the possible second round playoff opponent will be, either Atlanta or Cleveland, so there really is not a lot to win or lose either way. On top of the seedings ramifications with this game, this is a pretty big game for Toronto as a victory here gives the Raptors the most regular season wins in franchise history. The Celtics clinched a playoff spot last night even though it was idle as the Nets loss gave them the spot thanks to tiebreakers scenarios. Boston can still finish seventh or eighth which means a tossup between playing Cleveland or Atlanta in the first round. The Celtics are the second hottest team in the Eastern Conference following a pair of wins over Cleveland but they were fortunate to catch the Cavaliers resting starters in the second matchup. The Raptors, who are trying to complete a 4-0 roadtrip for the first time in franchise history, have won six of their last eight games but one of those defeats came at home to the Celtics so they will be out for some payback. The road team has covered four of the last five games in this series and that run continues tonight. 10* (701) Toronto Raptors

Despite a big NBA card Monday, they are not many good spots on the board as this is the time of year which makes it hard to get a read on some teams and what their plans are if they haven't been made public. One we do not have to worry about is with Brooklyn as it is still fighting for a playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. This line was delayed in coming out in most spots for no apparent reason. The Nets are tied with Indiana for the eighth slot, one game behind Boston and while the term must win is thrown around a lot in these situations, it fits tonight. Brooklyn controls its own destiny as if it wins out, it gets into the playoffs as it holds the tiebreaker over the Pacers which close the season against Washington and Memphis so it is not an easy finish. The Nets close the season Wednesday at home against Orlando so they definitely have the better road. They have been playing well as they have won eight of their last 11 games and 12 of their last 17 to make a move up in the standings and going back, they are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. Chicago has won two straight games but it is looking for consecutive road wins for the first time since Feb. 7-8. Since then, the Bulls are 3-9 in their last 12 road games and they are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games against teams with a losing home record. 10* (512) Brooklyn Nets

With the home-and-home loss to San Antonio, the Rockets are now a half-game behind Memphis and San Antonio which has dropped them all the way down to sixth place in the Western Conference. They have three games left, all of which are winnable and they have the easier road in the regular season than their divisional counterparts despite them having only two games left. Houston lost a tough one at home last time out which was only its 11th home loss of the season and it has backed up the last six home losses with a win next time out. This is no doubt a big game for New Orleans as well as it is tied for Oklahoma City for the eighth and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. The Pelicans won at home against Phoenix on Friday but their road issues are the reason that they are still fighting for the postseason as they are 16-23 away from home and going back, they have dropped six straight road games against Western Conference teams currently locked into a playoff spot. This is a team poised for a solid future but still isn't there and it is catching Houston at the wrong time which is a perfect 5-0 this season coming off consecutive losses, winning those games by an average of 13.6 ppg. 10* (714) Houston Rockets