Sports Picks & Predictions

Since the opening day of the playoffs when the favorites won and covered all four games, we have seen a shift go to the underdog side. We obviously cannot base any individual game on past history of favorite against underdog but what that did do is put even more of the public action on those favorites, an already popular bet in the playoffs to begin with. I was guilty of it as well on that first night as that is where the value was at the time and now with some adjustments, we have to look at the other sides. We definitely saw this Monday and Tuesday is no different. The Lakers had a pretty much wire-to-wire win against Oklahoma City in game one of this series. Los Angeles built a 17-point lead but it could not pull away from the Thunder despite a big advantage at the three-point line. This is definitely where the difference was as they went 8-22 from long range which was far from great but Oklahoma City was just 2-16 (12.5 percent) from behind the arc and if you consider, if it had connected on just a couple more of those, this game could have gone either way. The Thunder are not a great three-point shooting team but we will see a better effort tonight. This line has come down a point from that first game and that is putting a lot of action, a vast majority actually, on the Lakers for this game two battle. After all, they are the top seed in the Western Conference and have been the most overvalued team in the league this season. The Lakers are just 34-46-3 ATS on the season and that alone shows overvalue. Two of the three Lakers wins in this season series were close while Oklahoma City was able to avoid the sweep and win the final meeting which shows the matchups are not one-sided. The Thunder are 18-8 ATS this season as road underdogs and they are 13-4 ATS as underdogs of five or more points. The Lakers have been horrid as favorites as they are just a very overvalued team which has basically been the case from day one. 10* Oklahoma City Thunder

Phoenix is the one favorite I like tonight even though this line has gone up from the game one number. That was totally expected however as the linesmakers need to make the adjustment for a home team that is down 1-0 in the series and is basically in a must-win situation. I am not a fan of going with these must win teams because we do lose a lot of value but this case is different as the undermanned Blazers will have a much tougher time matching up not only physically but matching the intensity of the Suns who are a pretty angry bunch right now. I still think Phoenix is going to be a tough opponent in the postseason as it finished as one of the hottest teams in the league to end the season. Phoenix closed the season 28-7 over its final 35 games and enters the postseason as one of the hottest teams in the league and that momentum can be a big asset despite what we saw on Sunday. Bringing in the best record in the league since the All-Star break, the Suns are going to be a dangerous team this postseason and after all of the great Phoenix teams of the past, this could very well be the best one yet. The Suns are 18-8 ATS in their last 26 games when playing a team with a winning percentage between .600 and .700 and they are 25-8 ATS in their last 33 games against teams that allow opponents to shoot 46 percent or better from the floor. This includes a 16-4 ATS mark in their last 20 games against such teams. Also Phoenix is 11-2-1 ATS in its last 14 games as a favorite between 5.0 and 10.5 points. We should see a big bounce back effort and if the Suns have the same intensity and urgency as they did against Denver and Utah in their final regular season games, the results will be a blowout here as well. 9* Phoenix Suns

Milwaukee definitely came out slow on Saturday while Atlanta looked like the more focused and determined team. I was surprised at not necessarily the result but of how it happened. The final score showed a 10-point margin but Atlanta outshot the Bucks 53.9 percent to 45.1 percent from the floor as well as 54.5 percent to 30 percent from long range. Those advantages show a possible big matchup edge for the Hawks but that isn

The Bulls lost game one by 13 points but it needs to be pointed out that after getting down 32-18 after the first quarter, Chicago actually outplayed Cleveland the rest of the way. Outplayed may be the wrong term here but outscored is definitely a fact and that is our concern in the long run. We cashed with the Cavaliers on Saturday but we are going the other way this time as the line movement from the first game to the second game is going to line up the public on Cleveland as the line is currently one point less than what it was for Saturday

I believe this is a series that the Suns will want to end quickly so we should see them come out strong and not give Portland any hope. This series had the making of a great one but the loss of Brandon Roy is simply too much for Portland to overcome. I

Saturday was a big day for the chalk in the NBA playoffs as all four favorites were able to win and cover. Good thing for us is that we were on three of those but we switch sides right out of the gates on Sunday and jump on the underdog Thunder. The Lakers enter the postseason on a massive slide and while a lot of that is due to the absence of Kobe Bryant, the problems started well before that. Yesterday we rode the Cavaliers to a win and it can be argued they were in the same boat as they came into the postseason with very little momentum but in my opinion it is not close to the same. The Lakers closed the season by going 4-7 over their last 11 games and that is not what they needed although many will say it does not matter. The difference with Cleveland is that it went 0-4 in its last four games but all of those games were without LeBron James. Bryant missed three of the final four games but the difference is that is was not due to rest but a finger injury and the whole chemistry of this team is a mess right now. Andrew Bynum is back after missing the last 13 games but I don

Utah is coming off its biggest game of the season and it was hammered at home against Phoenix. Instead of getting the third seed in the Western Conference, that loss dropped the Jazz are the way into the fifth seed and home court advantage was lost. They now much travel into one of the toughest home courts in the NBA and even though that last game against the Suns was Wednesday, I still think they are going to show the effects. The Jazz did have a great season on the road as they finished a game over .500 but that was actually tied for the second worst of all Western Conference playoff teams. Denver is fortunate to be in this spot and I think it is going to take it and run. The Nuggets closed the season on a bit of a downer, going 6-7 in their last 13 games including an annihilating loss in Phoenix in the regular season finale that put their seeding up in the air until the following night. They caught a break and we should be a big bounceback here and Denver actually falls into a great situation explained down further. They won the division because of the first tiebreaker which was a 3-1 series win over Utah. The Nuggets have won five of the last six meetings at home and they bring in a 34-7 home record which finished tied for the second best home record in the league. The situation Denver falls into as mentioned is to play on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are revenging a same season loss and coming off a road loss of 20 points or more. This situation is 37-15 ATS (71.2 percent) over the last five seasons with the average point differential being +10.2 ppg. Denver is a good team to play in this situation as it is 18-8 ATS in its last 26 games following a double-digit loss including covers in six of its last seven. Utah meanwhile is just 7-18-1 ATS in its last 26 games as an underdog between 5.0 and 10.5 points. 9* Denver Nuggets

Boston finished the season in a rather hefty slump but the last two games, both losses, were rather meaningless. Most starters were rested in that season finale against the Bucks but looking back we see a 3-7 finish to the season which can definitely be a concern to some but not to me. Many preach motivation and while it is important, I don

Momentum is huge in the playoffs in any sport and winning at the end of the regular season gives teams

The Utah victory over the Warriors last night set the table for a huge game tonight in Salt Lake City. It is as simple as this. If the Jazz win, they win the division and get the third seed in the Western Conference playoffs. They can also get the second seed with a win and a Dallas loss. If they lose, Denver wins the division because of the tiebreaker and they drop to the fifth seed and that is obviously a huge because they lose home court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. We all know motivation is key and there is nothing more to be motivated about than this. The loss of Carlos Boozer is a big setback and he remains questionable tonight so he could play and to be honest, if he doesn

This is an interesting game for Utah. The Western Conference is going to come down to the final day of the regular season on Wednesday and there are only two seeds that are cemented, the first and the last with the Lakers and Thunder respectively. Everything else is still a mess but with the solid foundation of teams, it is a very good mess. Number two through number seven won

The Kings have been in a horrible stretch as they have lost nine of ten and the season is thankfully almost done. This is the final home game for Sacramento and that means a lot in this situation as any past record really gets tossed out the window. Going back further the Kings are just 3-8 in their last 11 home games but seven of those losses came against teams that are going to be in the playoffs so the schedule itself has been far from easy. Three of their last six wins have come against the Clippers and that certainly is not saying a whole lot but another of those six wins came at Houston in the last meeting back on March 3rd. That sets up a revenge situation for the Rockets but road revenge is something I am not an advocate of especially in tonight

Milwaukee lost to one possible first round opponent on Saturday and it will look to avoid making it two straight tonight. A win here keeps the Bucks in fifth place in the Eastern Conference and it is a spot that they will want to hold onto despite that loss against the Celtics last time out. Despite that, this team is playing exceptional and it does not want to lose any of this momentum and confidence heading into the playoffs. The loss to Boston snapped a four-game winning streak for Milwaukee who is now a spectacular 27-10 over its last 37 games. This includes a 26-9-2 ATS mark and the Bucks season winning percentage against the number of 64.9 percent is easily the best in the NBA. Atlanta has won its last 11 home games but continues to have problems on the road, where it had dropped six straight before dominating the final nine minutes of a 105-95 win at Washington on Saturday night. A win over the Wizards is not going to impress me and prior to that, the last two road wins came against New Jersey and Washington again so they have done nothing but beat the bottom feeders in the league away from home. The last win over a playoff team on the road came back on March 1st against the Bulls and Chicago technically is not even in the playoffs as of yet. Before that, the Hawks only road win over a playoff team since January 12th came at Utah and for the season, Atlanta is 6-14 in its 20 road games against current playoff teams (Chicago included). This includes a loss in the last meeting at Milwaukee and this is where I need to bring up line value and line movement. The last meeting in Milwaukee came on March 22nd which was less than three weeks ago. Milwaukee won that game by three points but it failed to cover the number as the Bucks were six-point favorites in that game. What has changed to make this lien go down by five points? The Hawks are 6-4 in the 10 games since then while Milwaukee is 6-5 in its 11 games since then so there is no real difference there and there is no way Andrew Bogut is worth five points. This is a big game for the Bucks who can take the season series with a win. 9* Milwaukee Bucks

Orlando is coming off a win yesterday in Cleveland, who played without LeBron James as he was sat down to rest once again, but nonetheless it was still a big victory for the Magic over their recent Eastern Conference rival. The Magic trailed by as much as 16 points early in the second quarter and looked somewhat disinterested in play. But Van Gundy kept pushing his team, warning them that they were on their

This is definitely the game of the day in the NBA but only because of the playoff implications and certainly not because of the talent on the floor. It is very possible that every team in the Western Conference playoffs could have 50 wins while these two powerhouses are sitting three games below .500 in a battle for the eighth and final playoff position in the Eastern Conference. The Bulls are favored which is not a surprise considering the issues on the Raptors side. Toronto is without All-Star Chris Bosh and it is very possible he has played his last game in a Raptors uniform. Toronto is also going to be without Antoine Wright who is nursing a strained ankle meaning that two of the top seven players will not see action which is pretty big. Speaking of big, the absence of Bosh has caused the Raptors to be on the wrong end of the rebounding battle the last three games (Bosh played just two minutes against Cleveland) and now they face the top rebounding team in the NBA. He matchup edge, which is rare for me to even look at in the NBA, goes to the Bulls in a big way. Chicago is coming off a loss at New Jersey in double-overtime which no doubt put it in a bad spot but that loss actually puts it into a good situation as explained later. That loss snapped a three-game road winning streak so the Bulls have shown recent ability to win away from home. They are 3-3 both straight up and against the number as road chalk which is obviously average but Toronto is just 4-9 straight up and 5-8 ATS as home underdogs. Chicago is playing better over the longer haul, going 7-4 in its last 11 games and it has not lost back-to-back games since mid-March, going 4-0 following its last four losses. Toronto did have a three-game winning streak to close March and begin April but it is still a disappointing 3-7 in its last 10 points. With this game being so important, any sort of revenge factor is not as big but the Bulls lost at home to the Raptors by 32 points and have actually lost both meetings this season by double-digits. That will be in the back of the Bulls players heads no doubt and lets not forget Bosh played in both of those games, averaging 26.5 ppg and 11.5 rpg. The situation mentioned earlier is to play against teams that are coming off a road cover where they lost straight up as an underdog going up against an opponent that is coming off a loss of 10 points or more as a road favorite. This situation is 33-8 ATS (80.5%) since 1996. 10* Chicago Bulls

This is no doubt an ugly game but we are getting tremendous value with the home team. The Clippers have dropped seven straight games and they are far from dominant at home but a .500 record isn

Out with the old and in with the new. The Celtics were embarrassed at home yet again, this time against the hapless Wizards which built a lead as big as 28 points at one time and easily ran away with it. A Celtics team from two years ago would never have let that happen and even though the roster is the same, this is far from the same team. Conventional thinking will peg Boston for a bounceback tonight after such a horrible loss and the public money is certainly showing that as despite the short number, the majority of the action is streaming in on Boston. The Celtics are tied with the second best road record in the NBA but that does little good here against one of the hottest teams in the league. The Bucks won last night in Philadelphia in a game was not nearly as close as the final score indicates. That was the fourth straight win for Milwaukee who is now a spectacular 27-9 over its last 36 games. This includes a 26-8-2 ATS mark and the Bucks season winning percentage against the number of 65.8 percent is easily the best in the NBA. The old versus young adage comes into play because both teams played last night. Milwaukee is the best team in the NBA when playing with no rest, going 17-3-1 ATS and this includes an 11-1 ATS mark when traveling from the road to back home. They are 28-11 at home on the season while covering 24 of those games including going 12-6 ATS against teams with a winning record. Boston is just 1-2 ATS with no rest going from home to the road and while they are solid on the road, this is just the fourth time they have been in this situation this year. In actuality it could be considered the first as those first three no-rest road games came against Washington, Indiana and New Jersey, all non-playoff teams. The short price is also in favor of Milwaukee as it is a tremendous 19-4-1 ATS this season when favored by fewer than five points. This could very well be the matchup in the first round of the playoffs and this is easily the best matchup that the Bucks could get so holding onto the fifth seed is critical. 9* Milwaukee Bucks

This is a big game for both teams as far as playoff positioning goes so this is one of the late season games where we do not have a significant line shift due to a must win situation. As far as motivation goes, with the playoff seedings so important, it could be concluded that it is even on both sides as well but I give a clear edge to the Mavericks for motivation. They have lost the first three meetings this season against Portland and will be looking to avoid the season sweep and it is very possible these teams could meet in the first round of the playoffs and the last thing Dallas needs to be down 4-0 on the year, giving the Blazers unnecessary confidence. This is not one of those matchups where Dallas is at a huge disadvantage. It has just been a case of not playing good and catching this game in a bad spot. After suffering back-to-back losses against Orlando and Oklahoma City, the Mavericks won last time out against Memphis to keep pace in the Western Conference. Dallas has not had a road win over a playoff team since early March but you can

Because of my contrarian thinking, New Orleans was the first look in this game based on the while home underdog having a better home record than the road team but this is a totally different circumstance. The Hornets are close, if not there already, to booking their tickets to end the season. The loss of Chris Paul was devastating as New Orleans simply could not make a push without him. The Hornets got him back for seven games and while there were only two wins over that stretch, you could see a difference in the way they were playing as the end of the season performances were rather strong. However, Paul is now done for the year with another major injury and a loss against Charlotte by a point last time out could be the beginning of the end. A tight loss like that is almost worse than a blowout loss as it bring in the thoughts of what could have been. The Hornets have now lost four of their last five home games and it won

I took Chicago in the last meeting between these two teams and it took out the Nets by 23 points in a big revenge situation. I will be going the other way tonight and a lot of it is due to line value. There is a tendency for bettors to look at teams that are in need of wins for playoff purposes. Those are tough teams to bet on as in every sport, the lines are jacked up and the value actually goes toward the other team that is playing for nothing. In that last meeting just less than two weeks ago, the Bulls were favored by nine points art home and based on the venue change, they should be about a one-point favorite here. But the adjusted line is much greater and that is where the value comes into play. Even though LeBron James did not play last night, the victory over the Cavaliers was a massive one for Chicago and I think it puts the Bulls into letdown mode tonight. The playoffs are within reach as the Bulls are tied with Toronto for eighth place in the Eastern Conference and the importance should surpass any sort of possible letdown but that is not the case with this inconsistent team. The Nets are back home after back-to-back double-digit losses on the road. We all know about the tough season New Jersey is having but the recent play has been better especially at home where the Nets are 4-1 in their last five games. That is a significant improvement from their 3-31 start in the first 34 home games. That last loss in Chicago sets up a revenge situation the other way tonight and the Bulls have historically had trouble in East Rutherford, going 2-10 ATS in the last 12 meetings. This included an outright loss back in December. The Bulls will very likely be peeking ahead to Sunday as they are at Toronto which will go a long way in deciding that final playoff position. 9* New Jersey Nets

This may sound like a facetious statement but I think the Lakers are going to present exceptional value the rest of the season. This is the complete opposite of what it has been all season as Los Angeles has been overvalued the majority of the time simply because it is the Lakers and they are the reigning World Champions. They have hit a rough stretch with losses in three of their last four games and four of their last six contests and this is going to turn people against them as the regular season winds down. This has a lot to do with thinking there is not much to play for before the playoffs begin but that is far from the case. Los Angeles still does not have the top seed in the Western Conference locked up yet and while it is just one win away with laughable games remaining, this is where it wants to clinch it. The Lakers are in need of a big victory as they have been few and far between and it is needed before the playoffs start to provide some momentum. They have not played since Sunday when they were trounced at home against San Antonio by 19 points so that alone will provide a spark and the time certainly does not hurt. Denver is coming off a big win last night against Oklahoma City as it rallied from a 13-point deficit and outscored the Thunder 25-14 in the fourth quarter. The Nuggets now must turn right around and face the best team in the conference in a really bad situation. The Nuggets have struggled this season when playing with no rest, going 6-12-2 ATS in the second of a back-to-back set including a 2-4 ATS mark when going from the road to home. The price range is not in their favor as the Nuggets are 2-8 ATS this season when favored by fewer than four points and 5-14 ATS at this range going back to last season. The Lakers were embarrassed by 26 points in the first meeting in Denver this season so that adds to the motivation even though they did win the last meeting in Los Angeles. The loss against the Spurs will also play a role as the Lakers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games coming off a double-digit loss. 10* Los Angeles Lakers

Milwaukee clinched a playoff spot last night thanks to its win in Chicago but there is no time for celebration. The Bucks are sitting in fifth place in the Eastern Conference which would mean a first round playoff game with Boston if the season ended today. This is a position the Bucks need and want to keep as avoiding Cleveland, Orlando and Atlanta in the first round is a must. Milwaukee continues to play solid basketball as it is 25-9 over its last 34 games which is one of the best records in the NBA over that span. The Bucks last faced New Jersey on February 10th in New Jersey and they were favored by 5.5 points in that game. Based on the change in venue that should make this line easily double-digits and around the -12 to -13 mark. It is far from that and this number is loaded with value for a team that still will be looking for wins. New Jersey have been playing better there is no doubt as it is 3-3 over its last six games but it continues to struggle on the road where it has lost seven straight and is 4-34 on the season. Milwaukee is 7-2 ATS against the Atlantic Division this season while the Nets are just 11-24 ATS this season as underdogs between 3.5 and 9.5 points. The Bucks run away with this game. 9* Milwaukee Bucks

This is a big revenge game for Indiana as it lost its last meeting to the Knicks by 43 points while New York is coming off an upset win last night over division rival Boston. Those two factors are making Indiana a play for many and the linesmakers seem to be taking this into consideration as this line is simply outrageous. As a comparison, 12 days ago the Knicks were getting 10.5 points in Phoenix and now they are getting 9.5 points in Indiana. That makes absolutely no sense. Granted, the Pacers are playing excellent basketball right now but this is the most points they have been favored by all season long. They were favored by 8.5 points over Washington two weeks ago and while they covered easily, Washington and New York cannot be put into the same grouping. The Knicks and Pacers are separated by one game overall and while this is a meaningless game, contests with two fairly equal teams means a short line and that is certainly not the case here. This will be a very up-tempo game and that favors the team that is getting the points and the Knicks are 26-11 ATS in their last 37 games when the posted total is 210 or more. Also, New York is 14-7 ATS this season as underdogs of seven or more points. 9* New York Knicks

Boston is coming off an upset loss at New York last night and that should get it fired up for this game tonight. The Celtics have been a rollercoaster the last few weeks going on streaks of 1-3, 4-0, 1-3, 6-1 and 1-4. This is not exactly the run you want heading into the playoffs so Boston needs to get some momentum going. Also with this recent 1-4 stretch, the Celtics are just a game behind Atlanta so they should feel fortunate and getting that third seed for the playoffs would be a major accomplishment as they would avoid Cleveland until the Eastern Conference Finals should both advance that far. The remaining schedule is very doable and a 5-0 finish is exactly what this team needs. The Raptors lost last night in Cleveland but suffered a bigger loss as Chris Bosh was hospitalized with facial injuries and his status for the rest of the season is questionable. This is a horrible time for this to happen for the Raptors who are just a game ahead of Chicago for the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. Toronto needs to win as well but now is at a big matchup disadvantage. Boston has owned this series the last two seasons with seven straight wins and gaining the sweep should be no problem tonight. 9* Boston Celtics

This is a huge game for the Jazz and one that they will be ready for in more ways than one. They are coming off a loss at Los Angeles on Friday, the 14th straight loss to the Lakers on the road, and that loss allowed both Dallas and Phoenix to move into a tie for second place with them and the Nuggets in the Western Conference. Most important they are now a half-game from losing home court advantage in the first round of the playoffs and at one point, the home edge looked like a lock. The good news is that after Oklahoma City, Utah faces three non-playoff contenders but there is still an issue as those are on the road so nothing is really safe. The one main thing now is to keep winning on its home floor where it is 31-8 on the season as this is just the second to last game of the season at EnergySolutions Arena for the Jazz. Utah wants to put that horrible effort against the Lakers behind it and with three days off in-between, it gives it an excellent chance to regroup. It wants payback from that but it will also be looking for some payback against Oklahoma City who has taken the first three meetings of the season against the Jazz or in other words, exactly one-ninth of their total losses on the season. They will be ready to avoid the sweep to the Thunder. Oklahoma City has won four straight games as it continues to play exceptionally well. The current streak includes three straight wins on the road including games at Boston and Dallas. The game with the Celtics was against a shorthanded Boston team and the game with Dallas was won thanks to nine more free throw attempts, 38 in total which was an aberration of their normal average of 26.7 per game on the season. They have turned into a very good road team as they are eight games over .500 away from home but I don

This is a lot of points to be putting down but this is a gear situation for Orlando. The Magic are coming off a loss at San Antonio on Friday night so heading home is just what it needs. Orlando has been in this situation 10 other times this season when it lost on the road and played its next game at home as it is 9-1 in those games. The Magic have not lost back-to-back games since January 15th and 18th on the road at the Blazers and Lakers so consecutive losses have been non-existent. This late in the season, despite how good Orlando is, you never know what type of effort you may get but in this case we will see a full-out effort based on the fact that the Magic have not locked anything up as of yet. They lead the Hawks by four games in the Southeast Division so they still need to keep winning to secure the second seed in the Eastern Conference. This is also a revenge game for Orlando which lost to the Grizzlies back in January after blowing a 16-point lead. Memphis is coming off a win over New Orleans which followed three straight losses. The Grizzlies had won seven straight road games but they have since dropped three of their last four and the double-digit pointspread, which may seem appealing, has not been a benefit this season. The Grizzlies are 2-6 ATS as underdogs of nine point or more including 1-6 ATS the last seven times and those six losses have come by an average of 17.7 ppg so they have been outclassed in those games against the NBA

It is fair to say that Phoenix is clearly the better team in this matchup and it is playing better basketball most recent as well but that does not mean it should win this game however. The Suns have won 10 straight games as well as winning six straight games on the road to improve to 21-17 on the road for the season. That is all well and good however these six most recent wins came against teams not in playoff spots with Chicago being the closest of the bunch so while winning, it has been winning against subpar competition. On the season only four of those 21 road wins have come against said playoff competition and to me that is pretty unimpressive. I am a big proponent of playing against streaks when the situation calls for it and it certainly calls for it here. The Suns have won the first four games of this roadtrip is pretty easy fashion but now facing a team with a pulse is something new and something it has not seen since March 21st. Milwaukee is coming off a heartbreaker of a loss last night in Charlotte as it dropped an overtime decision by a single point. Heading home and playing another important game is the perfect remedy for the Bucks as they are 22-14-1 ATS at home this season and 21-11 ATS in all games following a loss. Playing with no rest is not going to hurt this young team as they have been fantastic in these spots all season. Milwaukee is 15-3-1 ATS when playing with no rest and this includes a 9-1 ATS mark when going from the road to playing at home. The only defeat came after a three-point loss at Cleveland and then losing at home to Sacramento next time out and that was no doubt a tough letdown spot. Phoenix has owned this series with three straight season series sweeps as well as taking the first game this season. The Bucks did cover that game and they are now 12-4 ATS this season against teams allowing 103 or more ppg and Phoenix easily fits that criteria. Milwaukee is also 9-2-1 ATS in its last 12 games against teams with a winning record including 4-0-1 ATS in its last five home games against teams with a winning road record. 10* Milwaukee Bucks

Take one look at the Western Conference standings and you see a logjam between second place and fifth place with four teams being just one game of each other. Currently Dallas holds that number two spot but not by much. A couple losses could mean home court until the conference finals as well as not facing the Lakers until the conference finals possibly being both out the door. The Mavericks are in need of a strong close and it has to start tonight against Oklahoma City. Dallas is coming off a rather embarrassing home loss against Orlando on Thursday, the same Orlando team that lost by double-digits last night at San Antonio so the Mavericks will be out for some payback. They will also be out for revenge on the Thunder who won the last meeting at home by 13 points in the first game back from the All-Star break and that one was a tough one for the Mavericks to prepare for. Bouncing back has not been a problem for Dallas which is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games following a double-digit loss at home and I totally expect another big bounceback effort Saturday. Oklahoma City wraps up its short three-game roadtrip after winning the first two against Philadelphia and Boston. That puts the Thunder at a very solid 22-15 on the road for the season but this line looks off in this situation. Oklahoma City was getting five points against Dallas in the last meeting here back in January and not enough has changed to warrant this number coming down by a bucket. Also, the Mavericks were favored by five points over Denver last week, who is a better team than Oklahoma City but this one is a bucket less. This is tremendous line value in my opinion and even though Dallas has been horrible in covering at home it has been excellent in this price range, going 8-4 ATS as favorites of fewer than four points. The Mavericks also fall into a solid contrarian situation. Play against underdogs in the second half of the season after a win by six points or less that are averaging between 98 and 102 ppg going up against favorites that are allowing between 98 and 102 ppg. This situation is 38-13 ATS (74.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 9* Dallas Mavericks

Utah has been on a very solid run as it has won three straight, six of seven and is 18-7 in its last 25 games since its last meeting with the Lakers, a 15-point home loss. While that 25-game run is solid as far as the record goes, looking into those games paints a different picture. Of those 18 wins, 13 came against teams that will not be seeing the postseason although Chicago is still in the hunt. The Jazz are 4-4 in their last eight road games with a win over Toronto being the best of the bunch. The last quality road game came at Phoenix back on March 19th and that resulted in a 10-point loss. Utah was getting 5.5 points in that game, the same amount it is getting tonight against a Lakers team that is five games better than Phoenix so that gives us line value. Part of the reason for the low line is because of the slump the Lakers are in, if you can even call it a slump. Los Angeles is coming off a 2-3 roadtrip including losses in the final two games but again, this came on the road. The Lakers are 32-5 at home which is the best home record in the Western Conference and after playing 11 of the previous 14 games on the road, Staples Center is a welcomed site. Kobe Bryant questioned the intensity of the team prior to the game in Atlanta and the Lakers responded with one of the worst performances of the season. We cashed a ticket in that game and now the Lakers are the team to back as they head home and that sense of urgency is completely different on a team

Orlando is coming off a big win last night in Dallas as it was able to avenge an earlier home loss against the Mavericks. They are definitely playing some of their best basketball right now as they have won three straight games and are 14-2 over their last 16 games. Streaks and runs like this tend to put the public right behind these hot teams and that is one of the reasons for the line value we usual receive in the other direction. Blindly looking at these runs is not the way to go about things and when making a play on the other side, I need to look at the games involved in these runs and in this case, I am unimpressed. Six of those 14 wins came against playoff bound teams, Miami twice, so the schedule has definitely been in its favor. Also, the Magic are 6-1 on the road during this stretch which is no doubt solid but two of those wins came against Philadelphia, another against Washington and another against New Jersey. Despite the exceptional 23-15 record on the road, Orlando has not won two games in a row on the road against teams with a winning record since the end of November. Orlando is 7-8-2 ATS this season when playing with no rest and that includes a 1-3-1 ATS mark when both games are played on the road. San Antonio was off last night following a 17-point victory against Houston on Wednesday, to improve to 8-1 in its last nine home games. The Spurs are 27-11 at home this season which is far from great but this recent run trumps that as this is the best home stretch since a 9-2 run in December and January. Obviously this is the best time to be peaking at home with the playoffs looming and the fact that San Antonio is doing it without Tony Parker is even more impressive. Since the end of February, the Spurs are 13-5 with four of those losses coming against Cleveland, Atlanta, Los Angeles and Orlando. The most recent loss came at New Jersey which came right after a big win in Boston so they can be granted a mulligan. The loss in Orlando was a 26-point blowout so that sets up a monster payback situation and this actually is a triple-revenge spot after San Antonio was swept in the season series a year ago. San Antonio is 21-14-1 ATS as a home favorite this season and it catches a very good price in my opinion despite the fact that Orlando is an underdog after being favored in Dallas last night. The Spurs get their revenge tonight. 9* San Antonio Spurs

Miami is the popular play in this game for obvious reasons as it is the better team overall and is currently making a playoff seeding push. The Heat are sitting in sixth place in the Eastern Conference, a half-game from fifth place but also just three and a half games from eighth place. During this stretch run, these are considered must win games for teams and they are even more heightened when playing against teams that are not in the playoffs. What this does is hike up the line because the public is more apt to back a team that is actually playing for something as opposed to just playing for the season to end. This game goes against that rationale in my opinion. The Heat have won six straight games which is their longest winning streak of the season so that is also playing a role in the line that is set. I personally like to fade these streaks and this one presents a great opportunity. With wins in four straight road games, Miami has improved to a game over .500 on the road and in this league, a road record above the .500 mark is definitely solid. This is the fifth game in nine nights for the Heat with travel involved between each game so fatigue can play a role as well. Indiana is one of the few non-playoff contending teams that is playing very well right now and has not thrown in the towel. The Pacers have won six of their last seven games and have won eight in a row at home which is definitely a surprise to some I

Denver is on one of its worst runs of the season and while that is steering a lot of the public in the other direction, it makes this one even stronger in my opinion. The Nuggets have dropped five of their last six games, the second time this season they have gone on a 1-5 stretch and the last time resulted in a resounding win in that seventh game. I expect the same tonight. Despite this bad run, Denver is just a game and a half behind Utah in the NBA Northwest and just two games behind Dallas for second place in the Western Conference. A run like the one the Nuggets are experiencing could normally really hurt a team but they have been able to hold most of their ground and with five of the next six games being at home, this is where the skid needs to be reversed. The Nuggets are 30-6 at home so coming off this five-game roadtrip is a definite advantage. To their credit, four of the five losses have been against teams that are in the playoffs and are all at least eight games over .500 so while losing it not a good thing, at least it has come against a majority of elite teams. The Nuggets were on an 8-1 run prior to this so they know this can be reversed. While Denver is going through a slump, Portland has been rolling. The Blazers won again last night, in blowout fashion over the Knicks and they are now 14-3 over their last 17 games. They have done it with a mix of wins both home and on the road and against winning and losing teams but it does need to be broken down. Portland is 8-3 in its 11 games during this 17-game span which is very impressive but only one of those wins came against a currently playoff team and while going 7-1 against non-playoff teams, it went 1-2 against the playoff teams, losing to Denver and Phoenix. At home, the Blazers are 6-0 but only one win came against a playoff team so as you can see, the overall schedule has been on their side. It has been a fortunate break and because of it, Portland is back in the hunt for a higher than expected playoff seed. The win last night actually clinched a spot in the playoffs and that can always spell a letdown next time out. Denver is on a 0-8-1 ATS run while Portland is on a 6-1-1 ATS run and that presents value. The Nuggets were favored by seven points at home over the Blazers just three weeks ago and now that line has come down quite a bit. Denver also falls into two contrarian situations because of it. Play on home favorites after failing to cover the number in five or six of their last seven games, in a game involving two teams with winning percentages between 60 and 75 percent. This situation is 41-17 ATS (70.7 percent) over the last five seasons. Also, play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points after having covered the number in five or six of their last seven games, in a game involving two teams with winning percentages between 60 and 75 percent. This situation is 61-26 ATS (70.1 percent) over the last five seasons. The Nuggets are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six home games against teams with a winning road record and they extend that tonight as this horrid run comes to an end. 10* Denver Nuggets

We cashed an ugly ticket with Minnesota on Sunday as the Timberwolves snuck in under the number against Phoenix. This is now the perfect opportunity to feed off that decent game and snap its current 16-game losing streak. A streak like that certainly looks bad and it will keep a lot of the public off the Timberwolves here but that stretch was a brutal one. That game against the Suns was the 14th in that 16-game stretch against teams that will be playing in the postseason. Another game came against Houston, who is not going to be in the postseason but still posses a winning record. The 16th game came against these same Kings in Sacramento and that resulted in a 14-point loss so the Timberwolves will be out seeking some revenge tonight. Four of the last five losses have been by single digits and against playoff teams, those losses were not bad ones. This is the first home game against a non-contending team with a losing record since playing the Knicks way back on January 31st and that game resulted in a win by 21 points. The Timberwolves have actually won two straight home games against teams with a losing record that are not in the playoff chase. While Minnesota is in a big skid, the Kings are not playing much better as they have dropped five straight games including the first four of this five-game roadtrip. This includes losses against New Jersey and Indiana last night. Sacramento is just 7-32 on the road this year and despite a good record against the number, the majority of those ATS wins came when getting a lot of points. The Kings are just 3-9 ATS this season when receiving fewer than four points and they are 5-14 ATS in the 19 games on the year when the line is between +3 and -3. Going back further Sacramento is 9-26 in its last 35 games as an underdog of fewer than five points. Minnesota is trying to avoid a franchise record 17-game losing streak so there is a lot of incentive tonight.

The Lakers enter this game coming off a loss at New Orleans on Monday and the thinking by most will be to ride them in looking to bounce back. In their previous 19 losses this season, Los Angeles is 15-4 the next time out but it is just 9-10 ATS in those games and as a whole, the Lakers have not performed well as underdogs, going 4-6 ATS and 3-7 straight up. Los Angeles is only 16-20-1 ATS on the road and in this price range it includes a 2-5 ATS mark as underdogs of fewer than five points. Last and far from least the Lakers are 7-12 ATS on the road against teams with a winning record. Lakers head coach Phil Jackson canceled practice for the second time in as many cities, perhaps easing up a bit with the knowledge the Lakers won't catch Cleveland for the NBA's best record and also won't get caught by anybody in the Western Conference over the next two weeks. They keep talking about a sense of urgency but in fact, there is no urgency at this point. Atlanta is coming off a home win over Indiana on Sunday so it has had some time off to rest and get ready for this game. The Hawks have been outstanding at home this season going 30-7 including eight straight wins with half of those coming against playoff bound teams so they have been playing some stiff competition. Atlanta has actually been at its best when playing the best as it the Hawks are 10-2 ATS this season against teams with a winning percentage greater than .700. Atlanta is all but done in catching Orlando in the Southeast Division but that does not mean it is going to coast the rest of the way. Following its win over Indiana, the Hawks seem to be the team wanting to play with that sense of urgency.

Motivation is a huge factor in the NBA and Phoenix better have plenty of it over the next few days. The Suns didn

The Lakers have won two of their first three games of this roadtrip but this is the fourth game in six nights and despite the day off on Sunday, the spot is not ideal especially as a considerable road favorite. Los Angeles was favored by six points in its last game at Houston and while the number is the same here, I do not think it is a proper similarity. Both Houston and New Orleans are similar in records but not similar in personnel. The Rockets have been recently decimated with injuries and that has led to a four-game losing streak while the Hornets have actually gotten a key contributor back in Chris Paul. New Orleans has lost its last two games, both at home, but chemistry is to blame and New Orleans still comes in with a solid 22-14 record at home, the same record on the road for the Lakers yet the Hornets are getting a half-dozen points. New Orleans is 8-7 ATS as a home underdog this season which is not great but it is 4-1 ATS in its last five home games against teams with a road winning percentage greater than .600. The Lakers meanwhile are 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 games as a favorite and that points to being overvalued. The return of Paul has not done much for New Orleans as he has been pretty much non-existent. He has played 31 minutes in each of the last two games but has scored just five and seven points in those two games. He has dished out 17 assists but the scoring threat isn

Los Angeles brings in a six-game winning streak into San Antonio which is its longest winning streak since mid-December. It has been far from an impressive run as the Lakers gave up big leads against Minnesota and Washington while escaping with three single-digit victories against Golden State, Sacramento and Toronto. Those are not exactly wins against solid teams and they were far from dominant but coming off a 4-5 stretch prior to that, any winning streak, no matter how good or bad, was needed. This recent stretch can be blamed on nothing to play for and just going through the motions as Los Angeles has a comfortable 5.5-game lead in the Western Conference and playing non-playoff contenders cane certainly bring a team down. This game is different however. The Spurs are out for some revenge following a loss in Los Angeles last month but it will be far from easy. While they will be out for payback, the Lakers still have some painful memories of their last trip to San Antonio where they lost by 20 points back in January, the second worst loss of the season. They did get their revenge at home in that most recent meeting but there is still some old business to be taken care of. Los Angeles has won five of the last seven meetings with the other Spurs win coming by just a point at home last season. This is the start of and eight-game stretch where seven of those games are against teams with winning records with five coming on the road. Despite a likely top seed in hand, the Lakers know they cannot let up.

Oklahoma City is in the midst of its worst skid since late January and it has taken a little bit of a fall during the stretch. The Thunder are not in jeopardy of missing the playoffs but they have dropped into a tie for sixth place with the Spurs in the Western Conference standings. They have not lost three straight games since January 27th and they will look to avoid matching that tonight against a team they have had no success against. This is the fourth and final meeting of the season against the Rockets and Oklahoma City is looking to avoid the four-game sweep. Houston took the first three games this season and it is currently on a 13-game winning streak in this series so there is definitely some urgency to snap both streaks tonight and get some momentum going before the Lakers come to town on Friday. Losing at home has been rare of late for Oklahoma City as it is 16-5 at home since last losing consecutive games there December 13th and 16th. Houston is coming off a 10-point loss at Chicago on Monday but other losses which are more important continue to pile up. A thin team to begin with, the Rockets lost three more players to injury that game as Jared Jeffries, Jordan Hill and Kyle Lowry are all on the shelf with Lowry being the only likely possibility of those to see time tonight. They join Shane Battier on the bench, who is out for about two weeks following a knee injury and the depth of the team is becoming a real problem.

This is a huge game for Atlanta. The Hawks trail Orlando by 4.5 games in the Southeast division but this is more about confidence than anything else. Atlanta has dropped the first three meetings this season to Orlando and six straight going back to last season. The three meetings this season have come by 17, 32 and 18 points so that adds a lot more fuel to the fire. It has been a complete domination and the best thing for Atlanta is that this final meeting is at home where it has been as its best, winning seven of its last eight games with the lone loss during this stretch coming in overtime. Overall, the Hawks are 28-7 at home while going 21-14 ATS in those games. Orlando has been one of the hottest teams in the league as it has won 11 of its last 12 games including a perfect 5-0 record on the road. The road opponents have been far from potent however as only one game, an overtime win at Miami, came against teams currently vying for a playoff spot. The other four wins came against Philadelphia (twice) Washington and New Jersey who are a combined 52-158 on the season and also a combined 50 games under .500 at home. The Magic are just 6-9 ATS on the road against winning teams and are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 road games against teams with a home winning percentage greater than .600. This triple revenge opportunity puts Atlanta into a great league-wide situation. Play on home favorites that are seeking triple revenge involving two teams with wining percentages between .600 and .750. This situation is 73-36 ATS (67 percent) since 1996 with the average point differential being +7.6 ppg. This is the first instance of this situation this season. Atlanta meanwhile is 18-8 ATS in its last 26 games revenging a double-digit road loss while Orlando is just 4-15 ATS in its last 19 games following two straight games playing as a road favorite. Also the Hawks are 9-2 ATS this season against teams with a winning percentage greater than .700. 10* Atlanta Hawks

Denver has now put together two straight poor performances. The Nuggets lost last night in New York after blowing a big early lead which came after suffering a rare home loss on Saturday against Milwaukee, one of the hottest teams in the league. Because of this, a three-game cushion in the Northwest Division has deteriorated to just one game over Utah and if the point spreads hold true tonight, they will be even after Wednesday

Everything points to Utah in this game and that is exactly why we are going the other way. The Jazz have won two straight games and four of their last five but all four of those wins came at home with the lone loss coming on the road. They have actually dropped three straight games on the road to fall to 17-17 away from home on the season. That is definitely a great road record in this league but facing a desperate team that has tons of motivation will make it tough to back over .500 on the road. Toronto has also won two straight games and even though they came against Minnesota and New Jersey, the two worst teams in their respective conferences, they were huge wins. The Raptors had dropped six of their previous seven games and 10 of their previous 12 games so wins were needed no matter who they came against. Despite that horrific run, Toronto is still sitting in eighth place in the Eastern Conference standings, two and a half games ahead of Chicago for that final playoff berth. It is safe to say that winning is necessary especially at home. The Raptors have been a disaster on the road but they are still a very good home team, going 23-11 on the season. They need to protect that home court for the rest of the season which included this game and their home game Friday against Denver. They have dropped eight straight against the spread in Toronto so that provides both motivation and line value. Also, they have lost nine straight games against Utah including a 13-point road loss this season and that also brings motivation into play. The public is hammering Utah in this game for obvious reasons but wins like that in this league is far from obvious. Play on teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are shooting 47.5 or better going up against a team allowing between 43.5 and 45.5 percent shooting. This situation is 115-70 ATS (62.2 percent) since 1996. 8* Toronto Raptors

Catching Detroit as a favorite has been rare and it might not be a situation bettors want to get involved in but this spot sets up really well. The Pistons have dropped five straight games but the schedule was set up for failure. Four games came against the Hawks, the Celtics and the Cavaliers twice. It is no surprise that those were losses and the other game in the mix happened to be against the Pacers which may seem like a bad loss but it was on the road and it was sandwiched right between both of those Cleveland games. Those Cleveland defeats completed the season sweep of the Pistons and I don

How can we bet on a team that has lost 11-straight games? Easy because it is the NBA. Washington has suffered through a brutal stretch where it is 0-11 but a good amount of those have been close and I have to give the Wizards credit as the schedule has been a handful. They have played nine of those 11 games against playoff teams as well as a game against Houston. The only non-playoff team faced was a game against Detroit but that was on the road. This is the first true winnable game at home since facing New York back on February 26 and that ended up being a two-point loss in overtime. This is the first home game since March 13, a span of four games on the road that were against the Lakers, Blazers, Nuggets and Jazz, three of those being three of the top four teams in the Western Conference. Don

This game sets up great for Oklahoma City. The Thunder are in a mini-slump as they have dropped two of their last three games and while that may not be considered a slump to some, for a team that went 8-1 in their previous nine games and 17-3 in their previous 20 games, it is a slump. The good news is that after yesterday

This is a significant game for both sides but looking at all aspects of this game, the edge clearly goes to Phoenix. The Suns are winners of three straight games and this marks the seventh straight home game for Phoenix as it has been home since March 4th. With six of their next seven games on the road, the Suns have to take of their games at home and that is even more so when it comes to games against playoff teams. Phoenix has a one and a half game lead over Portland in the Western Conference standings, which is currently in eighth place. That is the last place Phoenix wants to go to so it needs to take advantage of this third and final game of the season series against the Blazers. Making it more important is that Portland won the first two meetings this year and already has won the tiebreaker. That sets this one up as a solid revenge situation and one that goes back to last season as the Suns are looking for quadruple revenge. Portland has been playing exceptionally well as it has won five straight games and eight of its last nine. It is also 10-2 over its last 12 games but taking a look at those 10 wins show that none of them were any good. The only one that came against a winning team was against Memphis and the only wins that came against playoff teams were two wins over Toronto, currently sitting in the last playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. You have to go all the way back to February 10th to find the Blazers last quality win and that came against, you guessed it, the Suns in Phoenix. I fins that we have significant line value here. In Phoenix

Boston picked up a big win last night in Houston and it was big not because of the playoff standings but more so for confidence reasons. The Celtics have clearly struggled against the top tiered teams in the league this season and while Houston can be considered marginal, it was still a solid victory over a winning team from the Western Conference. For the first time this season, Boston's core group is healthy and also for the first time, the Celtics have no built-in excuses for not playing their best basketball. And when you factor in that they're playing some quality opponents, this upcoming stretch, not the three straight wins over bad teams, is reason enough for the Celtics to get excited about the upcoming challenge that awaits them. The Celtics remain tied with Atlanta for third place in the East, although the Hawks own the tiebreaker by virtue of their four-game season sweep. Pater May of ESPN brought up a great scenario that makes this important stretch that much more important. Nailing down the third position in the Eastern Conference will be big because it will allow them to (a) likely avoid Cleveland or Atlanta until the conference final, should they get that far, (b) set up a potential second-round series with Orlando (against whom they play reasonably well, despite being 1-3) and (c) avoid Milwaukee in the first round in favor of, in all probability, either Miami or Charlotte, against whom they are 6-0 this season. The Celtics have been better on the road than at home which is certainly a rarity in this league. Boston is 23-12 on the road compared to 21-12 at home and it is one of only three teams that have more road wins than home wins with Philadelphia and New Jersey being the other two. This is a revenge game for Boston who got thumped at home against Dallas back in January. Obviously I do not like road revenge but a good road team changes that somewhat. What also changes it is the fact that Boston has not forgotten that game as afterward, Celtics forward Rasheed Wallace promised

Boston has been extremely up and down this season and it hits the road in a much needed game. This is the first game of a three-game roadtrip with games at Dallas and Utah to follow so this being the most winnable of the three means getting off to a good start on the roadtrip is top priority. The Celtics begin this stretch tied with Atlanta for third place in the East, although the Hawks own the tiebreaker by virtue of their four-game season sweep. Pater May of ESPN brought up a great scenario that makes this important stretch that much more important. Nailing down the third position in the Eastern Conference will be big because it will allow them to (a) likely avoid Cleveland or Atlanta until the conference final, should they get that far, (b) set up a potential second-round series with Orlando (against whom they play reasonably well, despite being 1-3) and (c) avoid Milwaukee in the first round in favor of, in all probability, either Miami or Charlotte, against whom they are 6-0 this season. The Celtics have been better on the road than at home which is certainly a rarity in this league. Boston is 22-12 on the road compared to 21-12 at home and it is one of only three teams that have more road wins than home wins with Philadelphia and New Jersey being the other two. The Celtics enter this game coming off two straight home wins so while the confidence was waning following three losses in four games prior to that, some of that has been restored. For the first time this season, Boston's core group is healthy and also for the first time, the Celtics have no built-in excuses for not playing their best basketball. And when you factor in that they're playing some quality opponents, this upcoming stretch, not the three straight wins over bad teams, is reason enough for the Celtics to get excited about the upcoming challenge that awaits them. Houston is a good team but not a great team as it is four games over .500 and the playoffs are likely out of the picture. It trails eighth place Portland by four and a half games and it will need a lot of help to get in. The Rockets have won four straight games and this is a scenario that I like to play as non-elite teams with winning streaks of more than three games do not extend them very much past that. Boston is 16-5 this season as a road favorite this season and while the ATS record is worse, this small number means that a win is a likely cover and vise versa. The Celtics also fall into a very favorable situation. Play on road favorites that are allowing between 92 and 98 ppg going up against teams that are allowing between 98 and 102 ppg, after a combined score of 205 points or more in two straight games. This situation is 50-19 ATS (72.5 percent) since 1996 with the average scoring differential being +8.4 ppg. 10* Boston Celtics

At first glance this looks like a good spot for the Spurs who have covered eight straight games and have won eight of nine overall. This however is not a good spot at all. San Antonio is coming off a win in Miami last night and while it is a respectable 6-6 ATS in the second game of a back-to-back set, it is just 2-4 ATS when both games are on the road. The win last night pushed the Spurs to 16-15 on the road this season as they have won four of their last five away from home. Looking at this most recent stretch shows the opposition has been anything but strong as of the last eight wins, only three were against teams with a winning record and two of those were against Memphis and Miami who are four and two games over .500 respectively. Orlando clinched a playoff spot last night after Charlotte lost but it is no time to celebrate. The Magic remain in second place in the Eastern Conference standings but they are just three games ahead of Atlanta and four games ahead of Boston so there is still a lot of work to be done. Orlando is 27-7 at home this season which is the second best home record in the Eastern Conference behind Cleveland. The real clincher however comes from its last game. The Magic last played on Sunday and were dealt their first loss in nine games and their first at home in close to a month. Coming off a home loss, Orlando has been sensational in recent years in its next home games. It has not lost two straight home games during the regular season since 2008 and Orlando has now won 17 straight home games if coming off a loss in its last home game while going 14-3 ATS in those contests. Those 17 wins have come by an average of 16.1 ppg and only four of those games were decided by single-digits. I expect more of the same here. Orlando is 56-28 ATS over the last three seasons following a loss of any kind and it also falls into a great league-wide situation. Play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that have covered at least three of their last four games against the spread, in a game involving two teams with winning percentages between .600 and .750. This situation is 61-24 ATS (71.8 percent) over the last five seasons including a perfect 4-0 ATS this season. 10* Orlando Magic

Charlotte is going to be the popular choice here but it is the right side in this situation. The Bobcats are coming off a huge upset at Orlando last time out and that would normally trigger a letdown but with the day off in-between as well as the playoff scenarios and a power situation backing this play up, that obviously is not a concern. Charlotte keeps winning but the problem is that it is not making up any ground and or advancing in the Eastern Conference standings as other teams have been playing just as good. Namely, Milwaukee isn

I went against the Nuggets on Saturday in the same price range and it once again came down to a fourth quarter where one team dominated the other. Denver tossed in 40 points and outscored the Grizzlies by 17 points in that final period, the second straight game it won in the final 12 minutes. The Nuggets are 3-0 on this roadtrip so far and that has moved them to a game over .500 and that shows that they are very average when it comes to playing away from home. Overall, they have won six straight games and this is usually the game that teams tend to let a little lethargic as it is the final game of a roadtrip before heading home for an extended period of time. This is the third time this season that Denver goes for four straight road wins and it failed to accomplish that the first two times, losing at Miami and Charlotte. The Nuggets won four straight road games once last season but it needs to be noted that none of those games were in succession and the last time they won four consecutive roadies was way back in April of 2005.Houston has won two straight games and it need to build off that momentum and put something together quickly. While not mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, the Rockets are close as they are 5.5 games out with 18 games remaining but six of the next nine are at home and that is where they need to keep the run going. The Rockets are just 14-18 ATS at home this season but they are 5-2 ATS as a home underdog while Denver is 1-7 ATS this season as a road favorite of three points or fewer and 2-10 ATS this season when the line is anywhere between +3 and -3. The Nuggets are also just 3-11-4 ATS in their last 18 games coming off a cover last time out. Going back to last season, the Rockets are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games as a home underdog and they have covered four straight games when coming off a non-cover last time out. 9* Houston Rockets

This is not a good spot for Denver on Saturday night. The Nuggets are coming off a game at New Orleans on Friday and while the Hornets are in a down year, they played them very tough and this series has taken on some extra meaning following that playoff plastering Denver game New Orleans last season. It is far from a rivalry but there is definitely some added motivation on both sides following all of the back and forth talking that took place. As stated, the spot is not good to begin with and playing with no rest this season, Denver is 5-9-2 ATS which is bad to begin with. The real kicker however is traveling from one road game to another road game and the Nuggets are just 16 straight up and 1-5-1 ATS. Memphis is in a very rare scheduling situation in the NBA in that it is playing back-to-back home games. This is something you do not see very often and it is obviously a huge advantage when playing a team with no rest that is travelling. How rare is this situation? This is just the 10th time this season that a team is laying back-to-back home games and considering the home team is 8-2 in the second leg of the homestand, it shows how much of an advantage it really is. The record does drop to 5-3-1 ATS in those games however, we are more concerned about the straight up mark since the Grizzlies are underdogs meaning a win turns into a cover anyway. Memphis built a 21-point lead against the Knicks on Friday and went on for an easy win so a lot of energy was not used which makes the back-to-back situation even more favorable. Adding to Denver

Milwaukee is red hot right now as it is on runs of 4-0, 10-1 and 16-4. Those are exceptional streaks and they have put Milwaukee into fifth place in the Eastern Conference, a spot that was never thought to happen before the season and just a month and a half ago for that matter. The Bucks have beaten some really good teams along the way as well. Or have they? The last two wins have come against Boston and Cleveland which look great to the naked eye but the Celtics are in a funk right now and the Cavaliers were without LeBron James. The other only good wins during this stretch have comes against Miami (three times) and Charlotte. The other victories have comes against some of the worst teams in the Eastern Conference as Philadelphia, New York, Indiana, New Jersey, Detroit and Washington have accounted for nine of those 16 wins. It is good for Milwaukee that it has won when it needed to against the bad teams but the jury is still out on this team in my opinion. The Bucks will face off against one of the hottest teams in the Western Conference. Utah has won four straight games and is 23-5 over its last 28 games and while it has taken out some poor teams, it has also defeated some heavyweights. Victories over Phoenix (twice), Portland (twice), Denver, Dallas (twice), San Antonio and Cleveland are far more impressive than the Bucks current resume. The Jazz are just 17-14 on the road compared to the Bucks being 21-9 at home but schedules have a lot to do with that. Overall, Utah has played the eighth ranked schedule in the league while the Bucks have played a slate ranked just 26th in the NBA. Milwaukee is just 4-14 against top ten teams with the aforementioned Boston and Cleveland games included which come with an asterisk, while Utah is 14-2 against teams ranked between 11th and 16th and that is where Milwaukee resides. This includes a home win over the Bucks by 17 points and while that brings in revenge, it is a soft angle here. Utah is 11-1 ATS this season against winning teams with a winning percentage less than .600 and it is 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings in this series. 9* Utah Jazz

Give credit to New Jersey who got off to a horrendous start this season for not completely throwing in the towel. The Nets are still a horrible 7-57 on the season but they have been more competitive of late as they have covered four straight games and the road has been especially good for New Jersey backers as it is 8-0-1 ATS in its last nine games away from home. This includes three outright victories over Charlotte, Boston and New York in its last five road games. They have lost the last two however and even though were single-digit defeats and covers, I do not see it continuing tonight. Oklahoma City is one of the bigger surprises in the league this season as it has pretty much locked down a playoff spot barring a monumental collapse. It is seven games back in the Western Conference standings and it trails the fourth place Jazz but just two and a half games and getting that home court edge in the first round is still within reach. The Thunder will not be taking New Jersey lightly despite it being 50-games under .500 because of the recent competitive games it has been involved in. Oklahoma City has to take care of business in these games against the lesser teams in the NBA and with a tough stretch coming up, it makes it even more important. I see a lot of value in this line actually. The Thunder have been favored by double-digits only once this season, by 10 points at home over Sacramento just over a week ago. The Kings are 14.5 games better than the Nets but yet were only getting a point and a half less. Even though Oklahoma City failed to cover that game, the line differential does not make sense. James Harden is likely going to miss this game but the rookie has been very inconsistent of late and Oklahoma City has still been winning big when his production has been lacking. Oklahoma City falls into a great situation as well. Play against road teams that are coming off two straight covers on the road where they lost straight up as an underdog, in March games. This situation is 23-5 ATS (82.1 percent) since 1996 with the average point differential being +15 ppg. 10* Oklahoma City Thunder

Philadelphia is a team in turmoil right now and heading in the complete worst direction possible. There is talk about firing head coach Eddie Jordan and that type of distraction is not good for anyone on the team. The Sixers have lost six of their last seven games and are 3-9 over their last 12 games following a five-game winning streak prior to the All-Star break. There was talk about a possible playoff run at the time as Philadelphia was right in the hunt in the Eastern Conference but after this prior skid, it is eight and a half games out of eighth place and the white towel has officially been tossed. As for Charlotte, the Bobcats are very much in the thick of things as they are holding down the seventh/eighth spot with Miami but both are ahead of Chicago by just a half-game so the winning needs to continue. The Bobcats also trail the Bucks by only two games for the fifth spot in the standings so the bottom half of those are still very much up in the air. Charlotte is 23-8 at home but just 8-23 on the road so it is pretty obvious why it is stuck at .500. The winning on the road has improved however as the Bobcats are 5-6 in their last 11 road games which is quite impressive after starting the season with a 3-17 away record through 20 games. We all know how motivation plays a big role in the NBA and that will be case here. Charlotte will be the bigger motivated team tonight and facing a team that is just 10-19 at home is far from intimidating. As rough as the road has been, Charlotte has actually been a road favorite five times this season, winning three of those games. Philadelphia meanwhile is just 2-10 both straight up and against the number as a home underdog which clearly shows the struggles as it simply does not get up for these games. It is also a dismal 1-9 ATS this season in home games coming off a road loss. Charlotte has won three straight games and has gotten some confidence back following a rough stretch where it went 4-9 against a very tough schedule. 10* Charlotte Bobcats

The Bulls have lost four straight games, the last three coming at home. This is the final home game of this current homestand before a brutal roadtrip starts on Thursday at Orlando. Chicago knows it needs to come out of here with a win before it hits the road where it has been pretty bad this season, going 12-19. Conversely, the Bulls record at home is a much better 19-12 despite the recent three-game skid. They are 5-2 ATS as home underdogs this season and they are 15-7 ATS this season as underdogs of fewer than seven points. This also sets up as a revenge game to add extra incentive as Chicago was blasted in Utah by 19 points earlier in the season. Utah comes in with a 15-14 record on the road following a win at Phoenix in its last game away from home. Overall the Jazz have won two straight but after a 17-2 run, Utah is just 4-3 over its last seven games and a seven-game road winning streak has been replaced with a 1-2 road mark in its last three games. The Jazz are a solid 11-6-1 ATS as a road underdog but just 6-5 ATS as a road favorite. This games means a lot more for Chicago than it does for Utah and even though the Jazz have the lowly Pistons on deck, I think it will be difficult for them to put forth a full effort against a very desperate team. Chicago is currently sitting in eighth place in the Eastern Conference standings with the Bobcats just a half-game back. Right now the fifth through ninth place teams are separated by only two and a half games so at this point of the season, every game becomes important. Even more so at home in the midst of a losing skid as the Bulls are in and will break out of tonight. 9* Chicago Bulls

This is a big time contrarian play but one that the value is squarely on our side. I have gone against Dallas in each of its last three road games and have been burnt each time. The first two were because of fourth quarter comebacks and last time out, it was able to build a big early lead and not allow the Bulls to come back. I am going back to the well once again as this time we have additional value with the two different streaks currently in place. The Mavericks have won 11 straight games and with the look of the upcoming schedule, there is talk around Dallas that this streak will be at 15 games when Boston comes calling on March 20th. I could care less if the Mavericks win this game outright as we are obviously more concerned about the point spread. This is a big number for any team to be laying on the NBA road and it doesn

Houston has to be favored in this games based on the overall record comparison of the Rockets and Pistons but I still think the value lies with the home team. Houston is coming off a win last night in Minnesota which moved it within two games of .500 on the road and that is certainly nothing to feel good about here. Obviously the Rockets are playing with no rest and that has not been a good situation this season as they are 5-11 ATS in the second of back-to-back nights and this includes a 1-3 ATS record when both games are on the road. Coming off a loss, the Rockets are a solid 21-9 this season but coming off a win they are just 10-20 including 12-18 against the number. I played against the Pistons on Wednesday and that resulted in an easy ticket on the Knicks. Detroit is having an absolutely horrendous season and it is currently riding a six-game losing streak. However that is a little skewed for this spot as five of those games were on the road while the lone home game came against Boston, which is 22-10 on the road this season, the best road record in the entire league. The Pistons last game was marred with the condition of Rodney Stuckey who collapsed on the bench and had to be taken to the hospital. Detroit was in control of the game at that point but the focus went away after that and they lost to the Cavaliers by seven points. A return home could not have come at a better time. Stuckey will not be in action but expect the entire team to rally around him here. The Rockets have been playing down to the competition as they are 1-5 ATS against teams with a winning percentage between .250 and .400 and as a favorite of fewer than six points, they are just 5-12 ATS. Detroit is not much better as an underdog of the same range but a lot of that is due to bad play on the road. Also, Houston is 3-8 ATS against teams with a losing record and 2-9 ATS in its last 11 non-conference games. 9* Detroit Pistons

Dallas picked up another ho-hum win last night against Sacramento, its 10th straight victory. The Mavericks have now moved into second place in the Western Conference but they find themselves in a tough position tonight. This is just the third road game since February 20th and in those first two road games at Charlotte and at Atlanta, it took fourth quarter comebacks, or fourth quarter meltdowns by the home team, to get the job done so while playing well on the road, it has not been a complete effort. Playing against streaks is a great strategy in this league as it is rare to see teams with winning or losing streaks reaching the double-digit number as unlike college hoops, the situations play a huge part in the game-to-game scenarios as opposed to teams playing hard every night in the college ranks. While Dallas has been winning big, Chicago has been losing. The Bulls have lost three straight games since going on an exceptional 17-7 run that started in early January. The last two losses have both come at home after winning five of their last six games at the United Center. On the season, Chicago is 19-11 at home and it needs to start holding serve on its home court as Chicago is just a half-game ahead of Miami in seventh place in the Eastern Conference and it is only a game and a half ahead of Charlotte for ninth place. Following Dallas, the Bulls host Utah and then hit the road for four straight games so this is a very important stretch. Chicago is 15-7 ATS this season as an underdog of fewer than seven points and it is 5-2 ATS this season as a home underdog. Fading a winning streak and riding a team with the losing streak may seem unconventional but we get value in the line in what will be an outright Chicago win tonight. 10* Chicago Bulls

We cashed a ticket with Denver on Wednesday as the Nuggets were able to bounce back from two consecutive losses at Los Angeles and at Phoenix. The game against Oklahoma City was a highly motivated one and it will be just the opposite tonight. With Indiana coming to town and a home game against Portland on deck, the Nuggets will take it easy tonight as we all know, it is impossible for NBA players and teams to be highly motivated night after night with the exception of the playoffs. This is a big letdown spot for Denver. While Denver will be going through the motions, the Pacers should be just the opposite tonight. They are coming off back-to-back losses against the Lakers and Blazers respectively, both by 23 points, and even though the playoffs are well out of reach, Indiana will be motivated enough to try and save face. It has no doubt been a struggle for this team, mainly on the road where it is 7-25 on the season and while the ATS record sits at a dismal 13-19 as well, this number is perfect. The Pacers are 5-1 ATS this season as double-digit underdogs. Indiana falls into the same contrarian situation as the other game but this one is a real contrarian play based on the teams involved. Play against teams that are coming off a win by 15 points or more going up against an opponent coming off two straight losses by 15 points or more. This situation is 34-13 ATS (72.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 9* Indiana Pacers

Toronto should welcome back Chris Bosh tonight and it cannot come at a better time if he is back in the lineup. He missed six straight games for the Raptors who went 2-4 over that stretch including losses in each of their last four games. Those games came against Portland, Cleveland, Oklahoma City and Houston so the opposition was obviously tough and they take a big step down in class here so the Bosh return, or not, is actually secondary. The first two meetings this season were both won by Toronto in New York but both were close and that will give enough incentive to the Raptors to not look past the Knicks here. We were able to cash a ticket on the Knicks against Detroit as they rolled which came after a blowout loss at Cleveland. That game against the Pistons set up very similar to a situation earlier in the season when the Knicks were blasted by Dallas but came back the next night to easily win against Minnesota. This game sets up nearly the same as well because following that game against the Timberwolves, New York faced Toronto in its next game and here we are once again. Coming off four straight losses will have the Raptors motivated here tonight especially back at home. This may not seem like it but Toronto falls into a very solid contrarian situation tonight. Play against teams that are coming off a win by 15 points or more going up against an opponent coming off two straight losses by 15 points or more. This situation is 34-13 ATS (72.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* Toronto Raptors

Making a very quick comparison, Denver is better than Utah but was getting a better line in Phoenix two games back than what the Jazz are getting tonight. I have not bought into this Utah team despite a recent run where it went 13-1. Solid at home once again, Utah is 24-8 on its home floor but just 14-14 on the road and while a .500 record is not a bad away mark in this league, it has its holes. As a road favorite, Utah is 8-3 but as a road underdog it is 6-11. That latter record improves to 10-6-1 ATS but we have to understand that as an underdog, it was getting a lot bigger lines than the one it is getting tonight. It is short enough to where an outright loss likely means a cover loss as well. The Jazz have been off since Monday which is a good break, especially coming off a loss, but I do not think it is a heavy advantage. Phoenix won last night in Los Angeles against the Clippers and it was a very easy victory. That helps us here because of the no rest situation the Suns are in as players were able to sit a lot, namely Steve Nash who played just 27 minutes and Amare Stoudamire who played just 28 minutes. The Suns are playing great basketball right now as they have won seven of their last eight games and are 13-3 over their last 16 games. They still trail the Lakers by eight games in the Pacific Division but they are right in line to grab a top four-seed in the conference as they are just a half-game out of that coveted spot which comes with first round home court advantage. The team it trails by is coincidentally, Utah, so this game does have some big implications even though there is a lot of basketball yet to be played. The home team has won five straight meetings in this series. While Utah has been outstanding as a short-priced underdog, Phoenix has been just as good as a short-priced favorite as it is 14-5 ATS this season as a favorite of fewer than six points. As a home favorite, the Suns have won 22 of 29 games and just like the short price on the Jazz, this line is small enough to where an outright win likely means a cover win as well. The Suns are 9-1 ATS this season when playing against teams with a winning percentage between .600 and .700 and they have covered seven straight games as a favorite. Phoenix also falls into a simple yet efficient situation. Play on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are shooting better than 47.5 percent from the floor going up against teams allowing between 43.5 and 45.5 percent shooting from the floor. This situation is 115-65 ATS (63.9 percent) since 1996. 9* Phoenix Suns

This game means more for Miami but that does mean it is the right side as playing those teams with more on the line often results in just the opposite outcomes. I am not one to lay road chalk very often in this league but there are times that it is called for. As of late last week, road favorites in the NBA were 108-111 ATS this season which is close to a 50/50 split so there has been no real edge either way. I have had success picking home underdogs this year but it hasn

This is a great spot for Denver. The Nuggets suffered back-to-back losses at the Lakers and Suns including a 16-point setback against Phoenix last time out. I talked about bounceback situations in one of the college basketball writeups and this is one of those spots where the bounceback is a legitimate angle. Denver has lost three-games in a row only once this season but the setup was different as it was two road games sandwiched around a home game. Here, we get the home game following two road games and as a matter of fact, this is the third time the Nuggets have faced this exact same bounceback situation this season. The first two instances, the Nuggets lost two straight games on the road but followed both of those two-game losses with a win at home in their next game and those were against Phoenix and Atlanta so the competition was strong on top of it. I see the exact same thing happening here as Denver has one of the best home courts in the NBA with its 25-5 record, the second best home mark in the Western Conference. Oklahoma City remains red hot but this is the perfect cooling off time. After winning nine straight games, the Thunder dropped two in row against Phoenix and San Antonio before coming back to win their last three games. This 14-game stretch included eight games at home and only six on the road which included games against the Timberwolves, Knicks and Warriors as well as games against the banged up Blazers and Hornets. Yes it has been a solid run but the scheduling has been very advantageous. Oklahoma City is a very good road team with a 17-12 record but Pepsi Arena has been a house of horrors where it has lost the last five meetings by an average of 20.2 ppg. Denver won the lone home meeting this season but the Thunder avenged that loss with a 17-point thumping at home in late January. That sets up a great revenge spot to add even more motivation to the fire. Play on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are outscoring their opponents by three or more ppg after a loss by 15 points or more. This situation is 71-35 ATS (67 percent) over the last five seasons. Also, Denver is 14-3 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points, winning those games by an average of 14.8 ppg. 9* Denver Nuggets

Do you think the Knicks will be a little fired up for tonight

This is a good spot for Boston despite laying points on the road. This is another public game however I actually still see some value in this line. The Celtics 20-10 on the road this season which is the second best road record in the league and for all of the negative talk about Boston going into the dumper, that is impressive. The Celtics have been having trouble at home which is no doubt a surprise but being one of the top road teams, there is no reason to be shy about laying this one tonight. We have many reasons why Boston is looking good tonight. First off, the Celtics are coming off an embarrassing home loss to New Jersey on Saturday and they have had a couple days to for that pain to fester and that just makes it that much stronger. We saw this just recently when Charlotte lost at home against New Jersey and came back three days later and hammered Cleveland. Losing to bad teams can bring out the best in a team the next time out. Second, even though this is on the road, Boston is playing for revenge following a loss at Detroit in January by six points at six-point favorites. Road revenge is tricky as I always say but as mentioned, the Celtics are not your average road team. Actually, this is a double revenge game as Boston lost at home in the final meeting last season but let

I am a big believer in going against streaks with baseball being the lone exception. When teams are on winning or losing streaks, we often get significant line value going in the other direction because the linesmakers have no choice but to make adjustments to try and at least even out some of he public action. Often times, we see this line value when it comes to smaller streaks but it is very subtle which the case in this game is. Memphis is coming off a win in its last game at New York but the streak in question here is the steak in its home games. The Grizzlies have lost six straight games at home which have dropped their record at home from 18-6 to 18-12. It has been a rough way to lose as holding serve on the home floor is extremely important especially this time of year. The last two losses have been by a combined five points, including a one-point loss to the Lakers, the loss before that was by 13 points but it was in overtime and the two prior to that were against Phoenix and Atlanta, both of which are ranked in the top ten in the NBA. None of these should be considered excuses for losing however it has been a tough stretch for sure. Because of this recent home skid, Memphis has a lot of ground to make up in the playoff chase as it is three and a half games out of the eighth and final spot in the Western Conference. This is a significant game to get a chunk back as the team sitting in eighth place happens to be the Blazers. Portland is closing its five-game road trip where it is 3-1 through the first four games. However, two of the wins came against the Nets and Timberwolves, the two worst teams in their respective conferences, while the other came against the shorthanded Raptors, who were without star player Chris Bosh. Another subtle streak has been the dominance of the road team in this series as the host has lost four straight meetings including the first three this season. Memphis has won the last two meetings, both in Portland, and a win here makes it a season series win which is very important for tiebreaker implications if it comes down to that. Memphis is 10-2 ATS this season coming off a double-digit win and it is 19-7 straight up this season as a favorite. 9* Memphis Grizzlies

It is time for some streaks to be broken tonight. Dallas has won a season high seven straight games so the moves it made to bolster its roster have no doubt paid off. The Mavericks have also won 11 straight meetings against Charlotte and Dallas is the only team in the NBA the Bobcats have never defeated. They came close in the first meeting this season as the Bobcats lost by just a point in overtime. Going back to the Mavericks winning streak shows a solid run but five of those seven games came at home including a win last night against New Orleans. Dallas had that game in control as it built a 25-point lead but the Hornets came back and Dallas had to use a late surge to pull away. Not only is the this the second game in two nights but this team has been busy since the All-Star break as this marks the ninth game in 14 days for Dallas which is a huge amount of game in the last two weeks. Conversely, this is just the seventh game since the break for Charlotte and being off since Saturday is big considering the Bobcats are coming off a four-game roadtrip. They lost the first three games of the trip, all of which were very competitive throughout, before winning the finale at Memphis to close on a positive note. This is the first home game since defeating Cleveland on February 19th and I think Charlotte can still build on that confidence. The main reason is that the last home game before that resulted in a New Jersey loss and the Bobcats will still be playing to get rid of that sour taste. This line is in what has been a great spot for Charlotte as it is 11-5 ATS this season as a favorite of fewer than six points and as a home favorite this season, Charlotte is 15-4 straight up and with this line being right around a

We lost a tough one with the Hawks on Friday as they held a double-digit lead in the fourth quarter against the Mavericks but lost in overtime. I am coming back with them on Sunday in what sets up to be a great situation. Atlanta is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 games following a loss and it will be ready to do it again on the home floor where the Hawks are 22-7 on the season. Atlanta has a firm grasp on a home series to start the playoffs as it is tied with Boston for fourth place in the Eastern Conference with the fifth place team five games back. The Hawks trail Orlando by only two games however for that coveted second spot which means not having to face Cleveland until the conference finals if the seedings pan out. The Hawks are 18-11 ATS at home in those 29 games and they are 25-1 ATS this season as a favorite of three or more points and 13-5 ATS as a favorite of seven or more points so this is the ideal number. Milwaukee is red hot right now as it has won six straight games while covering all six as well. However, the competition has been below average at best as wins over Miami and Charlotte were the only victories against teams currently in playoff spots and both of those teams are tied for eighth place in the Eastern Conference. Last night the Bucks throttled the Heat by 23 points but let

This is a huge revenge game for the Lakers. Actually it is a double revenge situation as they have gotten hammered by Denver in both of the previous meetings this season by 26 and 13 points. This tells us that the Nuggets have their number this season and we are getting value because of it. The last meeting came in Los Angeles just 23 days ago and Denver was getting eight points in that one so the line has come down slightly and while that may seem like the value has gone the other way, I feel it is actually on the side of the Nuggets and for the simple reason that this line adjustment is going to get a lot of square action on Los Angeles. As a matter of fact as of Sunday morning, we are seeing this. The overall action has come in on the Nuggets yet the line has gone in the other direction and the reverse line movement is in our favor here. His game reminds me of the game last Thursday when the Nuggets went into Cleveland and won against the Cavaliers with an identical line. Denver is a perfect 7-0 ATS this season as underdogs of four points or more and a win here gets it a game closer in the Western Conference standings as the Nuggets, who are currently in second place, would trail the Lakers by just three and a half games. The Lakers have been inconsistent over the last couple months as they are 16-9 in their last 25 games which is definitely good but it is afar from great for a team that is considered the best in the league by some. They are 3-2 since the All-Star break with both losses coming against top teams Dallas and Boston. Granted Kobe Bryant was not playing in that game against the Celtics and the game against the Mavericks was on the road but Los Angeles has been a wallet killer at home this season. The Lakers are 14-17-1 ATS at home despite a solid 27-5 straight up record and this is because of the line adjustments that are made in their home games. Los Angeles is 12-9 this season against teams ranked in the top ten while Denver is 13-5 against those top ten teams and the cover numbers against winning teams tells a similar story. Denver is 16-12 ATS this season against teams with a winning record while the Lakers are 11-18 ATS against above .500 teams. The matchup does not favor Los Angeles as mentioned earlier and the Denver offense can take advantage yet again. 9* Denver Nuggets

We are backing Golden St. again tonight after its poor performance on Thursday against Denver. The Warriors are playing their sixth straight home game which is a solid edge as they have not had to travel since the first day back from the All-Star break and that was just a short trip to Los Angeles to play the Lakers. Eight of their last nine games have been at home and after dropping the first two, they are 3-3 in their last six. Since before Christmas, Golden St. has been much more competitive and that has resulted in a lot of cashed tickets as it is 19-11 ATS in its last 30 games. They head out for a five-game roadtrip starting Tuesday so they will be looking to end this homestand with a win, especially after that poor performance against the Nuggets Thursday night. Speaking of the Nuggets, Detroit is coming off a loss against them last night. It was a game the Pistons were in throughout as they never trailed by more than eight points and the lead changed hands six times during the final quarter. It was a tough loss for the Pistons who at this point of the season have nothing to play for so getting up for the big teams is all they have left. That means playing a lesser team on no rest is the exact opposite and I really cannot see Detroit getting up for this one. The Pistons are 4-11-1 ATS this season when playing with no rest and this includes a 2-7 ATS mark when that second game is on the road. Making matters worse, this is the fourth game in five nights for the Pistons so fatigue really comes into play for this old team. This is the last game of this roadtrip and Detroit just wants to get back home. Golden St. lost the first meeting in this series back in December by nine points in Detroit so we have a revenge spot as well. The Warriors are also part of a great situation based on their last defeat. Play on teams in the second half of the season that are averaging 102 or more ppg going up against teams allowing between 92 and 98 ppg after a loss by 15 points or more. This situation is 42-16 ATS (72.4 percent) over the last five seasons. Golden St. is 11-3 ATS this season after allowing 120 or more ppg while the Pistons are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS win and 6-18 ATS in their last 24 games as an underdog of fewer than five points. 10* Golden St. Warriors

Portland has won its first two games of this current roadtrip which is arguably the easiest trek of the season. It started in New Jersey and the best of the bunch during the five-game trip was at 31-25 Toronto who the Blazers defeated rather easily on Wednesday. A game against the second best team is on Friday and while that may seem like another easy win, guess again. Chicago has been playing some of its best basketball of the season of late despite a hiccup in Washington on Monday. We cashed a ticket on the Wizards in that one and that was more of a play on Washington than a play against Chicago. The Wizards were playing with some new found energy not seen in a while and the Bulls did their best in giving that game away in the third quarter. Chicago bounced back with a home win against Indiana on Wednesday and with a game at the Pacers Saturday, the Bulls are in an Indiana sandwich but is certainly nothing to be concerned about as a win over Portland is most important right now. Head coach Vinny Del Negro was on the hot seat around the holiday

The Mavericks are playing some great basketball right now and the public knows this. They have won five straight games since losing at Oklahoma City in their first game back from the all-Star break. Last Friday we cashed a ticked on Dallas on the road at Orlando but we are going opposite here for a few different reasons. First off, this is the first road game since that Friday game against the Magic and prior to that, Dallas was 2-5 in their last seven road games with the only wins coming against Golden St. and New York. Dallas so far looks to be the winner for the mid-season trading award as its acquisitions have looked strong thus far. The Mavericks are coming off a home win against the Lakers on Wednesday and I don

Denver has won five straight meetings in this series including the first three this season but of these last five games, four were played in Denver. The one meeting that was played in Golden St., Denver won but it took overtime to get it done. In the three meetings last year, the Nuggets won the season series two games to one but the one Golden St. win took place at home where it has covered two straight. The Nuggets come into this game following a win on Sunday over Boston at home but it has been a very average run as they have alternated wins and losses in their last eight games. The first three games were played without Carmelo Anthony so that had a lot to do with it but they are just 3-2 since his return including a 1-1 record on the road that could very well be 0-2 if not for a last second win in Cleveland. Denver is just 11-14-2 ATS on the road including a poor 4-8 ATS mark against losing teams. This is a different team on the road, which is the case for most NBA teams, as Denver is 24-5 at home but just 13-14 on the road. This included just a 6-10 record when favored on the road where it is 4-12 ATS on the season. The Warriors are playing their fifth straight home game which is a solid edge as they have not had to travel since the first day back from the All-Star break and that was just a short trip to Los Angeles to play the Lakers. Seven of their last eight games have been at home and after dropping the first two, they are 3-2 in their last five. Since before Christmas, Golden St. has been much more competitive and that has resulted in a lot of cashed tickets as it is 19-10 ATS in its last 29 games. Despite a below average 12-17 home record, the Warriors are 16-13 ATS in those games including a 10-7 ATS mark as a home underdog. Golden St. has been very good this season when playing the top teams as it is 18-11 ATS against teams with a winning record. Because of the styles of both teams, which is fast-paced and up-tempo, the Warriors actually match up pretty well and their scoring ability can keep this one tight. They also fall into a great league-wide situation based on this. Play against favorites in the second half of the season in a game involving two teams that are averaging 102 or more ppg, after allowing 100 points or more two straight games. This situation is 30-10 ATS (75 percent) since 1996. Denver is just 1-10 ATS in 11 games this season as a road favorite of fewer than six points and it is 2-10 ATS this year against teams allowing 103 or more ppg. Golden St. meanwhile is 8-1 ATS this season against teams averaging 103 or more ppg. 9* Golden St. Warriors

Even though the first meeting in this series took place way back on opening night, the Cavaliers have surely not forgotten. Boston went into Cleveland and took out the Cavaliers, one of only four home losses for them the entire season. Cleveland is coming off a win on Tuesday against New Orleans and it was an important one as it snapped a season-high three-game losing streak. That was a definite momentum boost and gave the Cavaliers their first win since acquiring Antawn Jamison from Washington. They had gone 0-2 in his first two games with the team but he was inserted into the starting lineup and that paid off and now they will seek their first road win with him on the team. Cleveland is 12-4 in its last 16 road games after an average start of 7-6 away from home and this has been a team that has played up and down to the competition. Cleveland is 5-6 ATS away from home against teams with a losing record but 10-4 ATS in road games against winning teams. Boston is 3-1 since the All-Star break which is a good start as prior to that, it has a very bad run that dated all the way back to late December. After defeating Orlando on Christmas Day, the Celtics went on a 9-13 run and that is certainly not something a true championship team should be putting out there. A lot of that was due to injuries that have taken place and they are still not away from that as Paul Pierce is out once again and will miss tonight

Utah is going to be without two of its best players in all likelihood as Deron Williams and Andrei Kirilenko are both listed as doubtful yet the line reflects nothing of the sort. The Jazz went down with both out of the lineup last time out and even though the opponent takes a step down in class, this is not a major step down. Utah is 4-1 since the All-Star break and most impressive in that run is the fact that all four of those wins came on the road as it is now just a game under .500 away from home this season. Playing in Salt Lake City has been beneficial once again as the Jazz are 22-8 at home this season but that record is actually something we are not accustomed to. Utah lost just four games at home two years ago and last season it went 33-8 so it is on pace to lose the most games at home since 2006-07 when it went 31-10 at EnergySolutions Arena, then known as the Delta Center. Utah was absolutely rolling at one point with a 17-2 stretch but the chemistry of that team is lost with the injury factor in place now. The depth factor is an issue as well as the Jazz have gone pretty much seven-deep the last two games with Sundiata Gaines and Kyrylo Fesenko getting limited minutes off the bench. Charlotte lost its last game against the Clippers in which it was supposed to win so now we will ride the Bobcats with a line that dictates they are supposed to lose. They dropped to 7-21 on the road and that certainly is playing into this line but they are 15-13 ATS in those 28 road games so they are doing something right in staying competitive. Here is the even bigger factor. Charlotte started the season 1-14 on the road so it is 6-7 in its last 13 road games and that is an impressive turnaround considering most teams that start out by losing on the road continue to lose on the road. Charlotte is 11-5 ATS this season as an underdog of five or more points so it is kept a vast majority of the predicted big losses within reason. Included in this recent road turnaround are wins over Miami, Cleveland and Phoenix so the Bobcats have not just done it with wins over the lesser opponents. Charlotte is tied with Milwaukee for the eighth and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference while being just a game and a half pout of the sixth spot and with no other teams trailing, the only concern is winning. This is the first of five straight games against playoff contending teams so the full effort is brought to the court tonight following that fourth quarter meltdown against the Clippers on Monday. 9* Charlotte Bobcats

We cashed a ticket on Washington on Monday as it once again showed a brand new energy not seen all season long but I think it is becoming clear this team has a curse this season. With the Gilbert Arenas suspension and the Caron Butler and Antawn Jamison trades, the Wizards made a statement that it was out with the old and in with the new in a big rebuilding effort. I mentioned that often times, teams that lose star players are often rejuvenated as players who did not get a lot of time before are rising to the occasion. And while that may still be the case in Washington, one of those pieces is gone as the team continues to get thinner. Newly acquired Josh Howard, who came over in the Butler trade, has been lost for the season with a torn ACL. He was one of the players that was off to a great start with his new team so that was a big blow to him and the Wizards overall. Other players stepped up and they were able to overcome a big deficit against the Bulls and win in their last game but I think that renewed energy may have already hit its peak and is on its way down. Washington also won its two previous home games but one of those was against a horrible Minnesota team and the other was against Denver who was off a huge win at Cleveland the night prior. Memphis is coming off a heartbreaking loss against the Lakers last night as Kobe Bryant, in his first game back after sitting out five games, hit yet another game winning shot, this time a three-pointer with just 4.3 seconds remaining. Some will argue that this is a massive letdown spot for the Grizzlies but I believe it is just the opposite. If they had won that game, then they would be in for a letdown but instead they want and need to get it back tonight. Memphis remains on the outside looking in as it is 3.5 games back in the Western Conference

To start off, Steve Nash will not be in uniform for the Suns tonight and while that may be a big absence, we are getting some great line value because of it. Nash is a superstar in this league and he will be missed but to be honest, he has been struggling but the Suns have still been winning. On the season Nash is averaging 17.6 ppg and 11.2 apg, but has averaged just 12.9 ppg on 42.8 percent shooting in the month of February. Despite this, Phoenix is 6-2 in its eight February games and that shows the other talent that is available on this team. In Nash

Dwayne Wade remains out for Miami but that means one thing. The rest of the players need to step up and keep this team moving forward while he is out and that looks as though it is going to be a long time. Wade has a strained calf and while he is day-to-day, it is looking like a long process before he can even think of coming back. Miami has gone 2-1 since he has been out but the two wins came against New Jersey and Memphis which are far from impressive. But there is good news coming from those wins and that is both of those came on the road and tonight

Welcome to the NBA. Utah came back from a monumental 25-point deficit last night in Portland to force overtime and eventually pull out the improbable win. On the other side, Atlanta blew an 18-point lead as it fell apart in the fourth quarter and lost to Golden St. by four points. Those are two opposite results for this matchup and the key is to finding which team benefits the most from last night

Washington is playing with a renewed vigor and it is no random thing. The Wizards were expected to fight with Orlando this season in the NBA Southeast Division but the season got off to a horrible start with a six-game losing streak in the second week and it has been all downhill since. The big stories was the suspension of Gilbert Arenas and then came the decision to start over as the two other players of the

Playing the Knicks is not usually a big game for teams nor does it usually mean letdown after playing that game. However this case is different and I totally see a letdown spot here for the Thunder. Oklahoma City went into New York last night and won a thriller in overtime over the Knicks. That spoiled the much anticipated debut for Tracy McGrady and don

This is a great spot for Denver. We won with the Nuggets on Thursday as they were victorious in overtime over Cleveland, snapping the 13-game winning streak for the Cavaliers. Denver went out and laid an egg the next night in Washington as it was clearly a letdown situation and that alone should have the Nuggets ready to go here. The Nuggets had 25 assists and five turnovers in the win over the Cavaliers before finishing with 12 of each against the Wizards. And that is just the beginning. The last time these two teams met was close to a year ago in Denver and the Celtics ended up winning that game by 38 points which was easily the worst home loss of the season and the worst home loss for the Nuggets since 1998. Even though it took place last season, Denver has no doubt not forgotten. Boston is 3-1 on this current roadtrip with a three-game winning streak in hand and while that is solid, I

This is a big game for Milwaukee. The Bucks pulled off the win last night in Detroit to keep pace in the Eastern Conference and sitting in ninth place, they need to obviously make a move. They trail the eighth place team by just two games and that team comes calling tonight as Charlotte heads to Milwaukee in what may not make headlines, but is a big game in the conference. Milwaukee improved to 9-19 on the road with the victory last night and that is where the Bucks are likely going to decide their playoff fate. Winning on the road is a must for any playoff caliber team and both squads tonight have shown the inability to do that consistently. Playing at home has been a different story for both sides. Milwaukee is 16-9 on the season at home and it will be looking to halt a two-game skid at the Bradley Center, both of which were bad losses. This includes its lone home game since the break, a 28-point bashing from the Rockets and that was tame as they led by 40 points at one time. The Bucks had won seven straight home games prior to this and they should feed off of last night. Twice this season they have played back-to-back games coming off a road win and playing at home and they are 2-0 in those home contests. Overall, the Bucks are 7-1 ATS this season playing with no rest on a road to home back-to-back set. Charlotte is coming off a monster win last night as it took out the Cavaliers which is becoming habit. We cashed an easy ticket on that one but tonight we go the other way. The letdown scenario can come into play but the Bobcats have proven that it tends to not letdown as the two previous wins over Cleveland resulted in wins next time out as well. This is more about playing on the other side and taking this generous line into consideration. The Bobcats are just 7-19 on the road this season but 15-11 against the number. However we need to examine that further. Of those 15 road covers, the Bobcats were getting at least 5.5 points in 10 of those and at least 3.5 points in 12 of those. In two others, they were actually favored. Conversely, Milwaukee has excellent in this area, going 11-3 ATS when favored by fewer than five points and this is how close it is to being 14-0 ATS. One of the losses came in overtime while the other two cover losses were by just a point each. The Bucks are 15-5 ATS this season when dealing with a line that is less than four points either way. This is also a revenge game for the Bucks who were beaten in Charlotte by 10 points in the last meeting and that definitely bodes well as the home team is a perfect 5-0 ATS the last five meetings. 10* Milwaukee Bucks

Boston got away with one last night. Despite scoring just 11 points in the fourth quarter, the Celtics held the Lakers to one field goal over the final 7:14 to record their second straight win after the All-Star break. The defensive effort was outstanding once again and this was a big game coming in for Boston. The Celtics were seeking revenge from a last-second home loss to the Lakers earlier this season and the last time the Lakers hosted Boston, on Christmas Day 2008, they snapped the Celtics' franchise-record 19-game winning streak and gave Jackson his 1,000th victory as an NBA head coach. Boston no doubt remembered that game and they came in with some fire and held on after blowing a sizable lead. Coming off that big victory will make it difficult tonight to come out with that same amount of energy and let

With all of the trades taking place the last couple days, trying to figure out which team made out the best is nearly impossible to predict without seeing the new players playing a few games with their new teams but by what we have seen the first two games, the Mavericks look as though their deal may turn out to be a winner. Granted they are just 1-1 with a loss at Oklahoma City before returning home to beat Phoenix on Wednesday, but through those two games, the new Mavericks look like a new team. Defensively, they have done the job as they clamped down on the Suns, who failed to reach 100 points for just the seventh time this season and just the second time since Christmas. The previous night they held Oklahoma City to 42.7 percent shooting and held Kevin Durant to just 9-28 shooting from the floor and a lot of that effort is because of the newly acquired Caron Butler who was on Durant most of the night and will be on Vince Carter, who is starting to heat up, on Friday. The game against the Suns was as close to a must win as you can get because Friday starts a four-game, six night stretch with what looks like only one definite win and that is at home against Indiana on Monday as the rest are all against playoff contenders. Orlando entered the All-Star break red hot despite coming off a loss against Cleveland in the last game as it went into the extended time off on a 10-3 run and the Magic started right where they left off on Wednesday as they handled the Pistons with ease by 25 points in the first game back. This is by no means a game that Orlando will be taking lightly as Dallas is one of the best teams in the Western Conference but Orlando does have a double-revenge game on deck at home against Cleveland and that is a spot that is tough to ignore and not look forward to. Dallas has had the Magic

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This is an odd scheduling situation for both sides. The NBA had been back for two nights with two rather full cards yet neither Denver nor Cleveland has taken part as this is the first game for each side since last Thursday night. Many will argue that this will benefit the Cavaliers since they have been home for this entire time as well as for close to three weeks now going back before the break while the Nuggets have had to travel but I believe it is the other way around because of the situation. Denver had to head east in this game and on any normal scheduling situation, the Nuggets would be playing with one day or no days of rest but with the entire week off, there is to travel lag or fatigue that normally comes into play when opposing conferences are playing each other and that is extremely important. Emotionally, the news about the cancer for head coach George Karl is going to be a lift ass well. We see quite often in sports how teams rise to the occasion for fallen players or coaches and the fact that Karl will still be on the sidelines will give the Nuggets and even bigger lift. Forward Kenyon Martin, who is averaging 12.3 ppg and 9.4 rpg, should be back for the Nuggets tonight as well. He missed the last two games with tendinitis and the Nuggets are 1-4 when he's out of the lineup. Cleveland came into the All-Star break riding a 13-game winning streak so the time off actually could not have come at a worse time. As many know I am a big fan of momentum and whatever amount the Cavaliers had in the last month, can be considered gone. The Cavaliers are an NBA best 24-3 at home but in total, the home schedule has been extremely easy. As a matter of fact, the entire schedule has been tame as the Cavaliers have played the second easiest schedule in the NBA behind the Knicks. They have won 11 straight games at home but seven have come against non-playoff contenders. Wins over the Lakers and Magic were good but both came in the last minute and a one-point win over Oklahoma City and an eight-point win over Toronto were far from impressive. Another detriment for Cleveland is the recent trade for Antawn Jamison who may or may not be in uniform tonight. If he does play, it may hurt more than help at this point as we saw how a trade of this magnitude hurt Dallas in its first game. Denver is a perfect 6-0 ATS this season as underdogs of four points or more while also going 10-1-1 ATS in its last 12 games when playing with three or more days rest. This is a revenge game for Cleveland but there are too many positives on the Nuggets side to make that an edge for Cleveland. 10* Denver Nuggets

We look to get back on track in the NBA with a very contrarian situation. Last night Dallas was romped in Oklahoma City by 13 points while Phoenix was out winning in Memphis by 14 points in each team

We have seen a common trend in the NBA and that is the success of the home team coming off the All-Star break. Over the last three seasons, the home team is 22-8 both straight up and against the number in the first day back from the extended break and the logic is pretty simple in that the home players have had plenty of rest and have been able to stay put. One such team is Houston. The Rockets I feel are in an ideal spot tonight as they are getting points and for no apparent reason. Well, there are reasons for it but none that should even come into play. Houston has had a whole week to think about the 33-point loss it took at Miami prior to the break so it will be ready to start fresh and continue its solid play at home. Speaking of home, the Rockets have been home underdogs only four times all season long and none in 2010 and they are a perfect 4-0 ATS and 3-1 straight up in those games. The only loss came against the Lakers in overtime by just a point and that is a team they should be getting points against at home and not the Jazz. Utah had won nine straight games leading up to the final game before the break and that game resulted in a 15-point home loss against the Kobe Bryant-less Lakers so any momentum built was lost and if there was any left over, the six days off certainly killed that. The Jazz are just 10-12 on the road this season and my thinking is that any team with a losing road record should never be favored against a team with a winning home record unless there are some serious and vital injury issues talking place and that is not the case tonight. Yes it is a revenge game for Utah who lost at home against Houston by 17 points back in November but I take the revenge factor away on the road especially with a team that has lost more than it has won away from home on the season. That revenge factor especially holds true for Utah who is 7-18 ATS in its last 25 road games revenging a loss. Houston meanwhile is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 games following a double-digit road loss and it is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games following a game where it scored 85 or fewer points. 9* Houston Rockets

The Cavaliers have won 12 straight games and that will get the attention of a lot of the public but take a look at who Cleveland has defeated over that span. It took out the Lakers by six points but that game was not decided until the final minute. I do not see too many other impressive wins on that streak unless you count Oklahoma City, but they won that game by just a point. Miami, Memphis and Toronto are decent but they cannot be put into a category of Orlando. Overall Cleveland has played the second easiest schedule in the NBA and while it is arguably the best team in the Eastern Conference, we all saw last season how good Orlando matches up with the Cavaliers. Just a short time ago, Orlando was struggling as it went through a 2-7 stretch but it has picked things up again as it has gone 10-2 over its last 12 games with the two losses coming by a combined six points. A loss at home against Washington was because of a complete lack of focus in the second half as the Magic were outscored by 22 points in the third quarter. In reality, they should be coming into this game with an eight-game winning streak but they are still playing with some great confidence right now. Included in this recent stretch was a win at Boston and a blowout win at Chicago last night in a game that was not as close as the final score indicates as Orlando built a 29-point lead at one point. Playing last night is not an issue especially considering that the starters got a good amount of rest because of the lopsided effort. Cleveland already got its revenge form the playoff series loss from a season ago as it won in Orlando way back in November so now the revenge angle is on the other side. The Magic have played the Cavaliers extremely tough in Cleveland as only one of the last four meetings has been decided by more than four points. Orlando has a solid revenge record as well as it is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 games revenging a loss where the opponent scored 100 or more points. Also the Magic are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 games as an underdog while Cleveland is just 1-11 ATS in its last 12 games after scoring 100 or more points in five straight games. 9* Orlando Magic

We should have cashed a ticket last night with a very similar situation as the Clippers took a four-point lead into the fourth quarter only to get outscored by 14 points. A lot of those reasons that went into last night

This spot sets up horribly for the Heat. Miami is coming off a 33-point wins last night at home against the Rockets and now it travels to one of the toughest home courts in the league playing a team in revenge mode. Have we seen this before? As a matter of fact we saw it just last month when Miami played host to Indiana and hammered the Pacers by 30 points. It then traveled to Charlotte the following night and was absolutely blasted by the Bobcats by 39 points. The only difference is that Charlotte was not in a revenge spot as it had won the previous meeting by 10 points in Miami and that actually make

Utah is rolling along right now with eight straight wins which is the longest current streak in the Western Conference and second in the NBA behind Cleveland

Oklahoma City continues to push forward as it has won four straight games including a win on the road last time out. The Thunder are 15-7 in their last 22 games and they are getting a lot of attention once again from the betting market due to their 30-19 ATS record on the season. The public is all over them once again tonight with over 85 percent of the action coming in on them as of late Saturday morning. Yet, the line is going in the other direction as it opened at -4.5 in some places and has come down across the board to -4 and even -3.5 in some places. The reverse line movement is a significant factor in the NBA especially when dealing with home underdogs. The last meeting has Oklahoma City favored by 8.5 points at home and that game was just a week ago and the line movement for a switch of venue normally is four points each way so this number should be close to even which gives us excellent value tonight. Oklahoma City has won the first two meetings in this series on the season but both of those came at home which sets up a good revenge situation for the Warriors. Golden St. is playing just the opposite of the Thunder as it has lost seven straight games but it is 4-3 ATS in those games and on the season the Warriors are 27-20-1 ATS so like Oklahoma City, they have been cashing tickets. However unlike the Thunder, they are not getting the public respect due to the losing record straight up. As mentioned, this is a double-revenge situation for Golden St. and it is 32-19 ATS revenging a road loss against opponent over the last two seasons. The defense has allowed as least 110 points in its last five games but the Warriors are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games after allowing 100 points or more five straight games this season. The value also comes into play at home where Golden St. is 8-4 ATS as a home underdog this season and against teams with a winning record it is 16-8 ATS including 7-3 ATS at home. 9* Golden St. Warriors

After two straight losses, Memphis bounced back with a home win over Los Angeles on Monday, the end the Lakers roadtrip with a defeat so it wasn

Milwaukee had its eight-game ATS winning streak snapped last time out against the Magic as a second quarter beatdown by Orlando did the Bucks in and they could not recover. It was a miserable shooting performance by the Milwaukee starters who combined to go 14-46 (30.4 percent) from the floor and that effort is simply an aberration more than the norm of late. Since going on a dismal 4-15 run to end 2009, Milwaukee has gone a decent 9-8 since then and despite going 2-8 on the road during this stretch, it has covered seven of those 10 games. Defense has keyed the recent turnaround with the Bucks allowing an average of 88 ppg on 41.7 percent shooting in the last three games after allowing an average of 104.7 ppg in the previous 10 contests. The defense will prove vital tonight but at the same time, the offense will benefit greatly from the Knicks poor defense. Milwaukee has been off since the 2nd and playing with extended rest has been beneficial as the Bucks are 9-4 ATS this season when playing with more than one day of rest. New York is coming off a big win in its last game as it took out the Wizards by 22 points but that is not necessarily a momentum builder. Last week the Knicks defeated Minnesota by 27 points at home and had another home game two days later which is the same scenario here tonight. They lost that next game against Toronto, favored by roughly the same amount as they are favored by tonight. Looking at the most recent wins by New York shows victories against Washington, Minnesota, Detroit and Philadelphia. That is a mix of some very bad teams, three of which are contenders for underachievers of the year (Wizards, Pistons and Sixers) and the Timberwolves being one of the worst teams out west. We should also take note that the previous three wins came off losses in the game prior and if there is one other factor that will make New York not show up tonight is the fact that the Knicks play at Cleveland tomorrow night. As mentioned, Milwaukee will benefit from the poor defense as it is 16-4 ATS this season against teams that are allowing 99 or more ppg. Also, the Bucks are 4-0 ATS in their last four games coming off a double-digit loss while the Knicks are 1-5 ATS in their last six games coming off a double-digit win and they are 3-7 ATS this season when favored by fewer than six points. 9* Milwaukee Bucks

It is always a tough situation going against the home teams in these Thursday night games because they are usually high profile games and that make the home crowd more into the game and thus, a greater home court experience. In this case however, we will be backing the road team and for some pretty good reasons. San Antonio played last night in Sacramento and escaped with a two-point win and now plays the second of a back-to-back set. The Spurs are not at a disadvantage here however as Portland is travelling off a road game from last night as well. This is just the second game of the annual rodeo roadtrip for San Antonio and despite its length every year, it has been very positive as the team really comes together throughout the journey. The Spurs have gone a combined 40-16 on seven previous rodeo trips so it is pretty obvious they come out to play every night. Injured point guard Tony Parker participated fully in the Spurs' light shootaround Wednesday morning but he did not play last night against the Kings. He came away with no pain and was held out Wednesday just to give it some extra time. All of the injury reports have him listed a doubtful again tonight but all indications are that he will be making his return following three games missed due to that ankle injury. Head coach Greg Popovich confirmed it.

Oklahoma City has been playing very solid all season but more so just before Christmas. The Thunder have gone 14-7 over their last 21 games and that record could be so much better. They have gone 5-4 on the road during that stretch but those losses need to be looked at closer. They all came by 10 points as the losses were by a point, two points, a point and six points in overtime. Even two of the home losses could have gone the other way as one defeat came against the Spurs in overtime while another came against New Orleans near the beginning of January. That obviously sets up a same season revenge spot here and while road revenge is not usually a motivational tool on this end, I make an exception here against the Hornets. New Orleans was making some progress as it was on a 12-5 run until disaster hit against the Bulls at home in overtime. The Hornets star point guard Chris Paul hurt his knee and he is now going to be out possibly two month and that puts a big wrench in the playoff push. The Hornets went on to win the next game against Memphis without Paul as the rest of the team rose to the occasion but they gave it back at home next time out against the Suns. Now sitting a game out of the playoff picture, it is going to be tough to get into the hunt without Paul. One of the teams they are chasing is Oklahoma City and the Thunder will be out to make sure the Hornets remain in their place. The question is if Oklahoma City deserves to be a road favorite. New Orleans is 5-1 as a home underdog this season which is extremely solid but that was with Paul in the lineup. If he was playing, New Orleans would surely be favored here so he alone is driving this line the other way. I am not concerned about that at all as Oklahoma City is 12-11 on the road, with a lot of close losses as mentioned, and it is one of only three teams in the Western Conference with a winning road record with the Lakers and Mavericks being the others. On the season, the Thunder are 17-6 as favorites including 3-1 as a road favorite so this situation sets up just fine for us. Play against home teams in the second half of the season in a game involving two teams that are between +3 and -3 in scoring differential after trailing their last two games by 10 or more points at the half. This situation is 37-13 ATS (74 percent) since 1996. Also, Oklahoma is a solid 11-4 ATS this season on the road against teams with a winning record so playing the league

Milwaukee is coming off a romp last night in Miami as it won by 16 points, its second straight win against the Heat in the home-and-home set and third straight overall. Many will be going against the Bucks tonight thinking letdown but this team is playing very good right now as they have covered eight straight games while going 5-3 straight up. Since going on a dismal 4-15 run to end 2009, Milwaukee has gone a decent 9-7 since then and despite going 2-7 on the road during this stretch, it has covered seven of those nine games which tells us exactly which side the value lies and that is once again the case tonight. Defense has keyed the recent turnaround with the Bucks allowing an average of 84.3 ppg on 39.9 percent shooting in the last three games after allowing an average of 104.7 ppg in the previous 10 contests. Orlando is playing well once again, going 6-1 over its last seven games including wins over Atlanta and Boston on its home floor. The Magic are 18-4 this season at Amway Arena but only 11-10-1 against the number including a 5-5 ATS mark against teams with a losing record. They have lost to Indiana, Chicago and Washington this season, and just escaped Detroit on Sunday albeit on the road. Orlando has won both meetings this season against Milwaukee after taking three of four last season and while I am not a proponent of road revenge in the NBA, the last Orlando win came by 25 points and that is something the Bucks surely have not forgotten. Milwaukee actually falls into a solid situation and it is based on road revenge. Play on road underdogs of 10 or more points that have a losing record on the season that are revenging a road loss against an opponent. This situation is 99-55 ATS (64.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 9* Milwaukee Bucks

The Lakers are coming off a huge come-from-behind win on Sunday over the Celtics and their one-point win resulted in a push yesterday and a letdown for tonight. Los Angeles was finally able to breakthrough with a win against a winning team during this roadtrip as it is now 4-0 against teams with a losing record and 1-2 against teams with a winning record. This is the final game of the eight-game trek and it has been a long 12 days for the Lakers who at this point are a spent team. This is obviously the second game of a back-to-back trip but also the third in four and the fourth in six so there has been a lot of minutes played as well as a lot of travel. They now must try to focus following that last second win over Boston and not look too far ahead to their return home and I think it is too much to ask for in this spot. Lakers forward Lamar Odom said it best.