Sports Picks & Predictions

After a perfect 2-0 start, Phoenix has gone just 1-3 over its last four games including two straight losses at home. The Suns lost in overtime against Sacrament last time out and going back to that perfect start, that have gone four games without a cover. Despite this run, the Suns are 25-9-1 ATS in their last 35 games following an ATS loss. Golden St. meanwhile is off to a perfect 5-0 start and has covered every game along the way, hence the Warriors are listed as road favorites tonight. We won with them on Thursday and they are coming off another win last night at Houston, which also came into Saturday undefeated, so they are ripe for their first letdown on the season following two huge wins. And with a game at San Antonio on Tuesday, Golden St. also can be guilty of a possible lookahead to that one. Phoenix is 23-12 ATS after allowing 105 points or more over the last two seasons so it is in a solid bounceback spot here. The home team won all four meetings a season ago and I expect this year to start off with the same. 10* (512) Phoenix Suns

After losing two games last weekend, Portland has picked things up this with two massive wins as it defeated Cleveland by 19 points and Dallas by 21 points. Those games were at home however where four of the first five games for the Blazers have taken place this season. They lost their lone road outing at Sacramento which was over a week ago and they hit the road again for just the second time this season following a three-game homestand. While the Blazers have won two straight, the Clippers are coming off a loss at Golden St. on Wednesday and it was not a good one. The final deficit was 17 points but the game was not even that close as garbage points narrowed the gap and after the defeat, the Clippers find themselves 0-5 ATS, one of only three teams in the NBA without a cover. It is about effort as they have been outrebounded in every game and couldn't hold double-digit leads in four games so we can expect a full out effort today after some comments after the Warriors game should have them ready to go. Clippers head coach Doc Rivers called his players "soft" and in a league full of egos, that is motivation enough. The Clippers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a SU loss of more than 10 points and they get back into the win column on Saturday with their best effort of the season. 10* (702) Los Angeles Clippers

While Dallas played good for a half last night, the Mavericks fell apart in the second half as they fell behind by 27 points and ended up losing by 21. Dallas had won three straight games prior to Thursday and now it will look to bounce back in the second of a back-to-back set at Utah which it has beaten in six straight meetings. The Mavericks dropped to 1-2 on the road but going back, they are 39-14 ATS in their last 53 road games against teams with a winning home record. Utah last played on Wednesday and was able to defeat the Cavaliers on a last second shot to move to 2-3 on the season. The Jazz are in a classic letdown spot tonight and winning consecutive games has been a rarity the last couple years. Last season, Utah was just 7-17 following a victory including a 4-12 record following a home win. The Jazz are 0-1 following a win this season and they catch Dallas at a bad time as the Mavericks are 25-7 ATS in their last 32 games following a loss of more than 10 points. Additionally, this game falls into one of the great bounce angles as we play against home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are coming off a home win by three points or less, in November games. This situation is 24-1 ATS (96 percent) since 1996. 10* (519) Dallas Mavericks

Through eight games combined between these two teams, the under has come in all eight times which sets up a great opportunity tonight for a higher scoring game and we are getting a good number to play with. San Antonio played last night and blew a 17-point lead but was able to hang on in a low scoring game that finished with just 86 points. Prior to that, the Spurs and Suns finished with only 83 points so I expect things to change here. As for Houston, the offense has been able to score in bunches as it has gone over 100 points in all five of its games but it has been the defense that has kept the under run going as the Rockets have allowed no more than 93 points through five games. While the Spurs offense has been quiet thus far, remember that they were fourth in the NBA last season in scoring with 103 ppg. Houston meanwhile is right around its average from a season ago so we should see both offenses find success tonight. The first meeting last season went over the total and while the final three meetings all stayed under, two of those would have gone over if using tonight's number as those final three games has over/under totals of 212.5, 209 and 211.5. The over is 12-3-1 in the Rockets last 16 home games against teams with a losing road record while the over is 18-7 in the Spurs last 25 road games after a game where they failed to cover the spread. 10* Over (701) San Antonio Spurs/(702) Houston Rockets

We lost with the Clippers in their last game as they were coming off a loss against Sacramento in their previous game and while they did bounce back with a victory, they failed to cover. Now they hit the road for the first time this season as their lone road game came at the Staples Center against the Lakers, which doesn't count as hitting the road, and the challenge will certainly be a tough one. The first four games came against some soft opposition as three of those teams are not going to make the playoffs while the fourth, Oklahoma City, is a mess right now. Now the Clippers head to Golden St. to take on the undefeated Warriors, which are off to their best start in 20 years. The Warriors are 3-0 and they will b e sky high tonight as they will be out for some payback after the Clippers eliminated them from the playoffs last season in a classic seven-game series. Golden St. will be getting David Lee back tonight who missed the first three games of the season with a hamstring injury. Andrew Bogut, who was injured during last seasons first round of the playoffs and did not play, is leading the team with 9.0 rpg so he and Lee together is big. The Warriors are 11-1-1 ATS in their last 13 games playing on two days rest and they have covered 16 of the last 21 home meetings in this series. Revenge will be sweet tonight. 10* (524) Golden St. Warriors

These teams played six days ago and while they went over the total then, the value has shifted quite a bit to the other side. And a lot of that is due to what has taken place to start the season. The Lakers are off to a 0-4 start with all of those games going above the total. The noteworthy thing is that each game has seen a higher total going forward as it has gone from 207 to 208 to 210 to 210.5 and now it has gone all the way up to 215 in some spots which is a huge adjustment. On the other side, Phoenix has gone over in two of its first three games including last time out at Utah where it lost by 27 points. This too is the highest total that the Suns have seen this season as the previous high has been 208. The Lakers defense has been the main culprit in their slow start to the season and they are aware that they need to buckle down. Los Angeles is allowing a league-high 118.0 ppg but that number is not high because of pace, which is an important factor in totals. The Lakers are allowing an average of 77.3 shot attempts per game which is fifth lowest in the league so they have been on the wrong side of some hot shooting teams, especially from long range where opposing teams are averaging a league-high 12.8 three-point makes per game. On the other side, Suns games are seeing 169.3 shots per game from both sides which is the fifth lowest in the league. Going back to last season, the under is 8-2-2 in the Suns last 12 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game while the under is 4-0 in the Lakers last four games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game. 10* Under (715) Phoenix Suns/(716) Los Angeles Lakers

The Clippers are coming off a loss last night after opening the season 2-0 so this will be the first opportunity to bounce back off a defeat. They were fantastic in this spot a season ago as they won 23 of 31 games following a loss and they were even better in this tightener. Los Angeles was 6-0 last season when playing at home immediately coming off a home loss. The Clippers covered five of those six games and the six victories came by an average of 19.2 ppg with five coming by double-digits. Los Angeles has yet to cover a game this season so it is getting a very good line tonight and the lowest of the season. Utah meanwhile has started just the opposite as it was blown out in its first two games against Houston and Dallas before destroying Phoenix by 27 points at home on Saturday. Last season, the Jazz went 7-17 following a victory including going just 1-5 in six road games following a victory at home. Those five losses came by an average of 14.2 ppg and one of those happened to come against the Clippers after a home win over the Lakers. That loss was by only eight points but Utah was getting 14.5 points in that one so we are laying a very reasonable number tonight based on that differential. The Clippers have won nine straight in this series including five straight at home, coming by an average of 11 ppg. 10* (512) Los Angeles Clippers

This game is off the board in most places due to the uncertainty of Warriors forward David Lee but he likely will not play and won't make his season debut until later in the week. It hasn't mattered for the start of Golden St. however as it is 2-0, winning the first two games by 18 and 23 points. Those games were against the Kings and Lakers however so the Warriors take a big step up in competition here. While Golden St. drilled Sacramento, Portland went there and lost by nine points two nights later which puts the Blazers in a great bounce back spot tonight as they return home. We won with Portland on Wednesday as it ran away from Oklahoma City in the fourth quarter and catching the Warriors off a win last night and having to travel sets up the good opportunity. Over the last six seasons, the Blazers are 5-1 after losing their first game and the loss on Friday should serve as an early wake up call. The teams split the season series last year, each winning one game at home and one game on the road. Portland's success comes down to the play of LaMarcus Aldridge as in the two losses, he either didn't play or was limited while in the two victories, he scored 30 and 27 points while hauling down a combined 28 boards. He has paced the Blazers in the first two games of the season, averaging 24.5 ppg. Look for the Blazers to rebound with a big win tonight. 10* (708) Portland Trailblazers

The Pacers lost at home last night against a very good Memphis team and now have to hit the road for the first time this season. This is a different team from last year for sure but it looks as though they have lost the respect of the linesmakers. The Hawks were last favored by double-digits in April of last season, right before the playoffs, against the Sixers by 12.5 points. While that team hasn't changed much nor has Atlanta, this line is saying that Indiana is just two points better that Philadelphia? I don't think so. The loss of Paul George, not to mention Lance Stevenson, is no doubt huge but it is not as big as this line may be telling us. This is a 14.5-point swing from the opening game of the playoffs that was played here and it is simply too big of an adjustment. That game against the Sixers was the only time Atlanta was a double-digit favorite all season. The Hawks lost their opener in Toronto on Wednesday so they will be out to make up for that as well as avenging the first round playoff loss to the Pacers last season. Revenge can only go so far in certain cases however as it is hard to get up for it when the opposing team is different from the previous version. Atlanta was a lot better at home than on the road last season but a 24-17 record in its gym is nothing to get excited about. Plain and simple, the Hawks have no business laying double-digits to any team. 10* (513) Indiana Pacers

Overreactions in any sport are common and that certainly includes the NBA which we are seeing right here. We played against the Cavaliers last night and as expected, they did not play very good in the debut of the "New Big Three" but they have a chance to bounce back tonight. I certainly do not expect the chemistry of the new roster to be at 100 percent after just one game but I do expect the team to be a lot more focused after last night which was a circus atmosphere in Cleveland and that is putting it lightly so hitting the road right away is a very good thing. The Bulls opened their season with a resounding win over the Knicks on the road, the same Knicks team that just beat Cleveland last night so doing the math means Chicago rolls tonight. If only it were that easy. The Bulls are contenders right behind Cleveland in the Eastern Conference thanks to the return of a healthy Derrick Rose but he was pretty average in his season debut. The Bulls will be fired up tonight to host LeBron and company but they too have some chemistry issues with a lot of new personnel even though it may not have shown in the first game. While the Cavaliers felt the pressure at home last night, the Bulls could feel that same pressure in their home opener tonight and I expect Cleveland to bounce back Friday night. 10* (703) Cleveland Cavaliers

The Knicks got throttled last night, their second worst opening night loss in franchise history while Cleveland opens its season as favorites to win the NBA Championship. Who do you think the public will be on here? It was a bad offensive display last night against the Bulls as New York shot just 36.5 percent from the floor including 17.6 percent from long range. Carmelo Anthony finished with just 14 points but it wasn't just him as everyone shot the ball bad but some of that credit has to be given to the Chicago defense. Things can only get better. This is a big night in Cleveland for obvious reasons but we cannot be handing the Cavaliers a championship yet. Remember back in October 2010 when the highly anticipated Big Three of Miami took the floor for the first time and lost against Boston. That Heat team would start the year 9-8 before finally getting going and the point here is that this new team in Cleveland is not going to come out on fire and blow every one away early on. There are going to be chemistry issues early on and we can take advantage of the early overvalued lines. New head coach David Blatt even said that he feels his team is ready to go, but realizes the Big 3 still need time to jell. New York went 4-0 ATS in its final four games following a double-digit loss last season and the Knicks are getting more points tonight than they did in any game last year which again shows the drastic overadjustment of this line. 10* (503) New York Knicks

This is a good opportunity for Portland to jump on one of the frontrunners in the Western Conference. This is a big number for the Blazers to be laying against one of the top teams in the conference but it is more that justified. First off, Portland is a team on the rise as it improved by 21 games last season from the previous one and has a chance to break into the elite. Second, the home floor is one of the best around and opening night will surely make it even more electric. Third, the Thunder enter the season as one of the most banged up teams in the NBA. Kevin Durant is out for an extended period of time while five other players are either out tonight or will be limited. Andre Roberson and Perry Jones will make their way back to the court tonight to start at shooting guard and small forward, respectively, but Durant, Anthony Morrow, Reggie Jackson, Mitch McGary and Grant Jerrett will not make the trip leaving the Thunder with nine active players for tonight's game. This is a tricky situation as the Thunder also play tomorrow night as they are in Los Angeles to play the Clippers so managing this team and the minutes will be difficult. Portland and Oklahoma City split their four games last season and a depleted Thunder team should be no match tonight as the Blazers pull away. 10* (724) Portland Trailblazers

This is a big game for Miami, a statement game if you will. The Heat were embarrassed in the NBA finals last season against San Antonio as they lost four games to one with all four losses resulting in double-digit blowouts. That alone should provide some motivation heading into the new season. However, we also have a different motivator going tonight as Miami will be out to play hard to win following the departure of LeBron James who went back to Cleveland in the offseason. This has been a great angle over the years where we see a team step it up in their first game of the season after the team's superstar hit the road. We recall the Cavaliers doing it their first game after LeBron left as they defeated Boston in 2010. Washington would normally provide a formidable opponent but the Wizards are not close to 100 percent. They made a great run last season and are expect to be a top four team in the Eastern Conference but tonight they head to Miami without some key contributors. Nene and DeJuan Blair are serving suspensions, Bradley Beal is out with a wrist injury, Kris Humphries is out with a hand injury and Martel Webster was already on the shelf after back surgery over the summer. Because of low expectations in Miami, we are getting a solid number which is eight points less than the first meeting last season. 10* (710) Miami Heat

This is one of the best scenarios to go against on opening day. It is banner day in San Antonio and we know what that means. The Spurs will be lowering their 2013-14 NBA Championship banner on Tuesday night and playing a basketball game is not at the forefront for the players right now. This is a huge event and with that comes a lot of distractions. Players have been saying that once the banner is lowered and the game starts, they will be focused but that is easier said than done. Now let's go back to the NBA Champion angle. Prior NBA Champions are usually slow starting out of the gate the following season since their lines are over-adjusted to start the season. The last 13 NBA Champions (Dallas, Boston, San Antonio four times, Miami three times, Detroit and LA Lakers three times) have combined for a 40-66 ATS mark (37.8 percent) through their first two weeks of the following year. Distractions and overvaluation are definitely keys to this. We have seen it in the season opening game for the reigning NBA Champions for six of the last eight seasons. San Antonio won its fifth NBA Championship since 2003 after defeating Miami in five games and hosts Dallas on opening night. The Spurs are again one of the favorites to win again this season and Dallas will be out for some revenge after losing in the Western Conference quarterfinals in seven games. The Mavericks have fared well in this matchup, winning six of the last seven meetings against the numbers and the underdog has covered eight of the last nine meetings in this series. Look for Dallas to keep this one close and the outright win is far from out of the question. 10* (501) Dallas Mavericks

To say Miami's back is against the wall is an understatement as two home losses have put it down 3-1 in this series and it will need to win out to defend its NBA titles. While that may be asking too much, I expect an all out effort on Sunday to remain alive and we are getting some added value on top of it. This is the biggest number the Heat have seen in this series thus far and it is due to the dominance that the Spurs have put forth through the first four games. If nothing else, I expect a close game, much closer than what we have witnessed the last two games. After Miami lost Game One by 15 points, it bounced back to win Game Two and it is in a similar situation here in that it will have two days off in-between games and that is very important for a team that looked completely out of gas on Thursday. Obviously the key is to slow down the Spurs offense which is shooting 54.2 percent in the series. The NBA Finals record for a series of any length is 52.7 percent which show the high level of efficiency. The best player on the floor has not been the best player thus far and when it comes elimination time, LeBron James has stepped up in the past. His 45-point game in Boston in the 2012 Eastern Conference finals, a triple-double against the Spurs in Game Six last year and scoring 37 points in Game Seven shows his ability to take over when needed. The Heat have covered four of their last five games after a double-digit loss and we will see another cover at the very least on Sunday. 10* (709) Miami Heat

After getting homecourt advantage away from San Antonio with a Game Two win, the Heat gave it right back with their second blowout loss in this series to fall behind 2-1. Realistically, Miami could be down 3-0 in this series as it escaped with a two-point win on Sunday to even the series so while many will point to the Spurs as being the dominating team with a chance to really open up the series tonight, we have yet to see Miami play even close to its best game and I expect that to happen tonight. San Antonio scored a record 41 points in the first quarter to open up a big lead and never look back in Game Three and it went on to shoot 59.4 percent from the floor. Lost in the incredible offensive performance from the Spurs is the fact that they had a rough time stopping Miami from efficiently scoring. LeBron James shot 9-of-14 (64.3 percent), Dwyane Wade went 8-for-12 (66.7 percent), and Chris Bosh shot a perfect 4-for-4. Overall, Miami shot 51.6 percent from the floor. The Heat are in good position for a bounceback as they are 4-0 in the playoffs following a loss and going back to 2012, they are a perfect 13-0 in the postseason when coming off a defeat. Additionally, the Heat are 24-9 ATS in their last 33 games following a loss of more than 10 points. While san Antonio has control of the series knowing two of the final three games are at home, this is an absolute must win for Miami and while it is laying more than in Game Three, I don't expect it to come into play. 10* (708) Miami Heat

Miami brought home the victory in Game Two and it now is in the drivers seat. The series now shifts to Miami with the Heat holding home-court advantage, and renewed confidence after another series-tying victory in a long list of clutch postseason performances. They battled back more than once and made up for the effort in Game One where they went 3-16 after LeBron James left the game and it was the defense that shined the most when needed. After shooting 14 for 16 in the fourth quarter of Game One, the Spurs were 6 of 17 in Game Two and they closed at 43.9 percent from the field after shooting 58.8 percent in Game One. Miami is 8-0 straight up and 6-2 ATS at home in the postseason so it has done an excellent job of taking care of its home court and while this will be the biggest test, the Heat will again be up for the challenge to not give back that home court advantage right away. Going back to last season, the Heat are 18-3 in their last 21 home playoff games and going back since the start of the 2011-12 postseason, they are 29-5 in their last 34 games at home. The Spurs meanwhile haven't exactly been getting it done on the road as they are 2-7 ATS in their last nine road games against teams with a winning home record while the Heat are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games against teams with a winning road record. 10* (706) Miami Heat

The Heat were defeated by 15 points against San Antonio on Thursday but it was not as bad of a loss as the final score showed. Miami actually had a seven-point lead in the fourth quarter but after LeBron James had to leave the game because of cramping, the Heat crumbled. The Spurs outscored the Heat 16-3 after James left the game. Game Two is now as close as a must win game can be as falling behind 2-0 in this series could be overwhelming. The Spurs showed why they finished with the best record in the NBA but it will be up to Miami to show why it has won back-to-back championships and it will not fall down again. Credit the Spurs for playing an excellent game despite committing 22 turnovers as they shot an absurd 58.8 percent for the game and an unreal 14 for 16 in the fourth quarter. Don't expect a repeat performance of that and Miami definitely caught the biggest break with two days off in-between Game One and Game Two so the rest factor is huge and obviously for James the most. Miami is 3-0 in the playoffs following a loss and going back to 2012, it is a perfect 12-0 in the postseason when coming off a defeat. Additionally, the Heat are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 games following a loss of more than 10 points. Look for Miami to grab the home court advantage and head home with the series tied. 10* (703) Miami Heat

The two top teams in the NBA did their part in the Conference Finals and now meet in the NBA Finals for a second straight season. Both will have had ample time off to rest and that is more in favor of the Spurs due to the ankle situation with Tony Parker but all indications are that he will be ready to go in Game One on Thursday. This is the matchup San Antonio wanted as it wants to avenge last season's series loss that went the distance but could have been won by the Spurs if not for Ray Allen's three-pointer with 5.2 seconds left in regulation in Game Six that sent the game into overtime. While the Heat had home court advantage last season, San Antonio controls it this time around and Game One is the pivotal contest for the Spurs. Despite being the elite of the NBA, the two meetings during the regular season were anything but competitive as Miami won the first game at home by 12 points and the Spurs returned the favor with a 24-point drubbing of the Heat on their home floor. I think we can expect a few closer games in this series although last year's finals saw only two games decided by fewer than seven points. Miami won only two of seven games this regular season when it was an underdog and I expect that to continue for at least one more game. The Spurs have covered seven straight games at home and they get the early series edge with a win and cover on Thursday. 10* (702) San Antonio Spurs

We had the over here in Game Five and things were looking very good until a 38-point fourth quarter did us in and it resulted in either a push or a loss depending on the number. We are coming right back with it again here tonight. The home team has dominated this series thus far as the host has taken all five games and none have been close as nine points has been the smallest margin of victory. While we could see a close game finally tonight, we are going with the bounce angle toward the total as we are more apt to see a high scoring game which has been missing the last four games. After going over the total in the first game of this series, the last four games have all stayed under the number and not only does that give us a great contrarian opportunity but it gives us value in the number. Also mentioned on Thursday, this has been a series where one team has flourished on offense while the other has been horrible and it has been the home team dominating the offensive numbers 50.7 percent to 41.5 percent and we have yet to see a complete offensive games from both sides which is very surprising due to the quality of these teams. While we are on a run of unders in this series, San Antonio is 6-1 to the under in its last seven games while Oklahoma City is 7-1 to the under in its last eight games so we are going against even bigger streaks and I definitely expect that to change tonight. 10* Over (523) San Antonio Spurs/(524) Oklahoma City Thunder

Miami took control of this series with three straight wins after losing the opening game and many feel that after the Game Five loss, it ends tonight. While that may be the case because the Heat are at home, we are getting some great value in this line as they are favored by a bucket more than they were in the first two games played here. Miami had no issues in the first two games played here but we should see a different Pacers team tonight as the momentum from Wednesday is a big factor. We saw it in their last series against Washington after Indiana won at home in Game Two, they rolled on the road following that victory. The Pacers need someone besides Paul George and Lance Stephenson to step up, and some combination of David West, who scored 19 points in Game Five, and center Roy Hibbert could be the difference. On top of everything else, this is the biggest line that Indiana has gotten all season long and while it was not very competitive here in the first two games, it is a different scenario now. With their backs once again up against the wall, the Pacers come through. 10* (521) Indiana Pacers

The home team has dominated this series thus far as the host has taken all three games and none have been close as nine points has been the smallest margin of victory. While we could see a close game finally tonight, we are going with the bounce angle toward the total as we are more apt to see a high scoring game which has been missing the last three games. After going over the total in the first game of this series, the last three games have all stayed under the number and not only does that give us a great contrarian opportunity but it gives us value in the number. We have seen the total steadily decline since Game Two as it has gone from 209.5 to 208 to 207.5 to 206 for tonight and dropping three and a half points in a few games is a huge swing. This has been a series where one team has flourished on offense while the other has been horrible and it has been the home team dominating the offensive numbers 50.6 percent to 41.1 percent. This could very well be the game that both teams play a complete game on offense and even of the Thunder can improve slightly from their first two games in San Antonio which won't be hard to do, this one goes over easily. The over is 5-0 in the Thunder's last five games following a win of more than 10 points while the over is 12-3 in the Spurs last 15 games following a loss of more than 10 points. 10* Over (519) Oklahoma City Thunder/(520) San Antonio Spurs

We cashed both the Under in Game Two and the Over in Game Three in this series and we go back to the totals for Game Five as we are again catching some solid value. The last two games of this series have surpassed the number and because of that, the number is now a bucket higher than it was in those previous two games. Additionally, the total is the highest it has been this series (tied with Game Two) that went under the total by 14.5 points. With Indiana's playoff lives on the line tonight, I expect its defense to come up huge as that is the trademark that has gotten them to where they are. The Pacers have allowed Miami to shoot 50.7 percent from the floor during the first four games of this series so now it is time to buckle down to stay alive. The Pacers are now on their first three-game playoff losing streak since losing Games Four, Five and Six against the Heat in the 2012 Eastern Conference semifinals and while it is going to be difficult to come all the way back even with a win here, it cannot do so by getting into a shootout with Miami so possessions will play a big role here as well. Last year in Game Six of the Eastern Conference Finals, Indiana was facing a similar spot as home in an elimination game and buckled down and won with the game finishing with just 168 points scored. I see this game to play out a similar way. The Under is 4-0 in the Pacers last four games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. 10* Under (517) Miami Heat/(518) Indiana Pacers

After getting blown out in San Antonio in the first two games of this series, the Thunder responded with a win on their home floor to get back into the Western Conference Finals. The home floor certainly helped but Serge Ibaka returned for Game Three after missing the first two games of the Western Conference Finals with a calf injury. His miraculous return was a huge difference as he provided the type of rim protection the Spurs didn't see back in San Antonio. In the first two games, the Spurs had 120 points in the paint but on Sunday, they only had 40. He is going to be back for Game Four which gives Oklahoma City the chance to even up this series before heading back to San Antonio. The Spurs have covered just one of their last seven road games and on the season, they are only 11-14 ATS in their 25 road games against teams with a winning record. Additionally, the Thunder have covered eight straight meetings at home in this series and they are 15-3 ATS in their last 18 home games against teams with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. While this game is big for both sides, it is more important for Oklahoma City as a 3-1 deficit with two games remaining in San Antonio would spell disaster. 10* (516) Oklahoma City Thunder

After losing the opening game, Miami has regained control of this series with two straight wins and it looks to take a commanding 3-1 lead before going back to Indiana. The Pacers will have something to say about that however. The series could easily be 2-1 in their favor and even 3-0 for that matter as they blew it late at home in Game Two and lost a 15-point lead in Game Three. Prior to Miami's back-to-back victories, the teams had alternated wins and losses in 13 straight meetings which shows how evenly matched up they really are but it has been the Pacers that have had the trouble of closing. The Heat have trailed by at least eight points in the first quarter of each of the first three games of this series so give them credit for coming back in two of those but also give credit to Indiana for the good starts and another one could mean an even series going back to Indiana. The Pacers shot 12-of-36 on jump shots Saturday, including 6-of-20 (30 percent) on uncontested jumpers, their worst in a game this playoffs so we will see a better performance in Game Four. The Pacers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a loss of more than 10 points and the outright win isn't out of the question. 10* (513) Indiana Pacers

The Spurs are proving to be the best team in the NBA after dominating the first two games of this series at home. The Western Conference Finals now switch to Oklahoma City and this has now turned into a must win game for the Thunder as a 0-3 deficit will pretty much do them in. I expect a turnaround tonight. While the Thunder followed up a Game One loss with another defeat, they are 19-10 this season following a loss and the short price here likely means a cover as well. San Antonio is playing its best basketball right now but the Spurs have covered just one of their last six road games and on the season, they are only 11-13 ATS in their 24 road games against teams with a winning record. Additionally, the Thunder have covered seven straight meetings at home in this series and they are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 home games against teams with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. Oklahoma City gets back into the series with a big victory on Sunday. 10* (512) Oklahoma City Thunder

We have seen this total go from one extreme to the other as Miami and Indiana combined for 203 points in Game One and then dropped to 170 points in Game Two. The posted totals have reflected the points scored as they have moved each game according to what happened in the prior game and we are seeing it again here albeit ever so slightly. The defenses were not on the floor in the first game but both stepped up last time out or did they? Miami shot 50.7 percent from the floor despite the low point total and it is hitting slightly over 51 percent through the first two games and a return home should keep that going. Four the Heat's last five home games have surpassed the total and while Indiana has played under mostly on the road of late, the Over is 10-4-1 in the Pacers last 15 road games against teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. The extended time off also helps the cause as Indiana is 4-0 to the over in its last four games playing with three or more days rest while the over is 18-7-1 in Miami's last 26 games playing with three or more days rest. 10* Over (509) Indiana Pacers/(510) Miami Heat

Similar to the Miami/Indiana game last night, we are seeing a jump in this total due to the results from Game One. In this case, the Thunder and Spurs combined for 227 points which went over the total by close to 20 points and now the over/under has gone from a 208.5 closing in Game One to as high as 212 in some places on Wednesday for Game Two. We are going the value route once again and while neither of these teams are on big over runs which would increase the contrarian values, the defenses are not getting the respect they deserve here. While both offenses are very potent, the defenses are overshadowed as the Thunder are allowing 43.7 percent shooting and the Spurs are allowing 44.3 percent shooting and combined they allow just over 198 ppg. The big factor tonight will be the Oklahoma City defense as it was damaged the most in the opener by allowing 57.5 percent shooting no thanks to giving up 66 points in the paint. On the other side, the Spurs have to shore up as well as they allowed 59 first half points. Kevin Durant has surpassed his scoring average in just one of five meetings this season, while Russell Westbrook shot below 50 percent for the 23rd time in 28 career matchups. The Under is 4-1 in the Thunder's last five games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game while the Under is 14-6 in the Spurs last 20 games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. 10* Under (507) Oklahoma City Thunder/(508) San Antonio Spurs

We are getting some good value with the total tonight after the first game went over the number by 21 points. It was the fourth straight game that Miami has gone over the total as well as sixth in the last seven games and that is a streak we like going against as it offers solid contrarian value. Indiana has been mostly on an under run with six of its last nine games staying below the total and this number again fits. This total is right in the range where Indiana has stayed under the number in a vast majority of its games this season. When the total is in the 180's, the Pacers are 32-12 to the under since the start of the season. Game One saw Miami shoot 51.3 percent from the floor and Indiana shoot 51.5 percent from the floor and both teams are going to be out to tighten up those defenses as they both came in playing well on that side of the floor. Throughout 14 postseason games thus far, Indiana has shot 44.8 percent from the field including 38.2 percent from beyond the arc and that is a lot more realistic of what we should see tonight. The fact that Indiana was able to generate such efficient offense was surprising enough on its own, but the fact it pulled it off against an opponent so familiar with its limited playbook was even more surprising. The Pacers are the better of the two defenses in this matchup and we will see a definite improvement there. The under is 9-4 in the Pacers last 13 home games against teams with a winning road record. 10* Under (505) Miami Heat/(506) Indiana Pacers

The Thunder lost the opening game against the Clippers but came back to win four of the next five to advance to the Western Conference finals. San Antonio meanwhile had no trouble with Portland after taking two of the final three games against Dallas so it is playing some of its best basketball right now and it certainly caught a break in this series. The loss of Serge Ibaka for Oklahoma is huge as it really affects both sides of the floor. Offensively, he is their third scoring option and during the playoffs, he averaged 12.2 ppg on 61.6 percent shooting and that will be missed. Defensively, it will be even more painful as Oklahoma City had a big matchup edge with him against the Spurs this season. San Antonio's offense averaged 93 points per 100 possessions when Ibaka was on the court, and 120.8 (shooting 51.4 percent) when he was on the bench. That is 27.8 per 100 better when he was out. Additionally, Russell Westbrook shot just 32 percent with Tony Parker guarding him during the regular season and now with Ibaka out, the offense of the Thunder could really suffer. Oklahoma City has been awesome as an underdog this season but I don't like the setup in Game One. While the Spurs don't need extra motivation, the fact they were swept 4-0 during the regular season against Oklahoma City should give them an extra push to not only win, but win big and make a statement to open this series. 10* (504) San Antonio Spurs

The home team dominated the regular season series, winning all four meetings and going back to last season, it has been eight straight games since the visitor was able to taste victory. That changes in Game One of the Eastern Conference Finals on Sunday. Indiana closed the regular season on a 10-13 run and it did its best to get ousted in the first round against Atlanta as it got taken to seven games after trailing 3-2 in the series. Against Washington, the Pacers won 4-3 but they were on the verge of heading back home for a Game Seven before a late run on Thursday night sealed a win. This team is clearly still not right and being a home underdog may be attractive to some, but not me. Miami had no issues with Charlotte in its first round sweep and while it slipped up one game against the Nets, they went through them pretty easily. The big key here is rest as the Heat played just nine playoff games while the Pacers played 13 so they will no doubt be the fresher team and on top of it, they are 4-0 ATS in their last four games playing on three or more days rest. This is the third straight season that these two have met in the playoffs and since 1994, when a team has beaten a team in consecutive years in the playoffs and then met again for a third straight year, that team has won again four out of the five times it has happened. Granted, that is the series but with Indiana having home court, Miami will have to win here and it should make a statement in Game One. The Pacers are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 home games against teams with a winning road record. 10* (501) Miami Heat

We won the Clippers on Tuesday and while they lost outright in a very controversial ending, I expect yet another very close game tonight. It is a must win game for Los Angeles and while it is 38-9 at home on the season, the line value is significantly going the other way. If the Clippers were getting 5.5 points on the road in the last game, a typical line move for the venue change would make them a 2.5-point favorite here as home court is usually awarded four points. We are seeing a much bigger adjustment just like the one we saw from Game Four to Game Five where Oklahoma City went from a five-point underdog to a 5.5-point favorite and these 10.5-point swings are simply too much as the home floor is being given too much credit. The last two game has seen the eventual winner rally from late deficits to shock the other team as the Clippers came back from 16 points down in the fourth quarter to win Game Four while the Clippers squandered a late 13-point lead against the Oklahoma City to lose Game Five. What should we expect tonight? I think it is doubtful we see another big lead let alone one that is lost as these teams are just about dead even in scoring differential in this series through five games (108-107.8 favoring Los Angeles). The Clippers are just 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games against teams with a winning record including going 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games against teams with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. Meanwhile the Thunder are 16-7 ATS in their last 23 games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. 10* (743) Oklahoma City Thunder

Miami and Brooklyn are in a possible playoff clinching game and while both closed their first round series with overs, I expect this one to stay below the total even though it not an elimination game for sure. Three of the first four games of this series have gone over the total including each of the last two and because of that, we are getting some added value as this total is two points higher than the last game. While a bucket may not seem like much, we have all seen how some of these come right down to the final possession or final free throw so every point counts. This also goes along the lines of using the zig zag or bounce angle and I have mentioned in the past that while the sides have not been as good in recent years, totals have still done pretty well and with us going against a two-game over run, it is even more in our favor. Going back, Brooklyn has gone over the total is seven of their last 10 games while Miami has also gone over in seven of their last 10 games and those are obviously trends that we prefer to fade as recent games tends to not only sway the public but that in turn changes the numbers. The Under is 4-0 in Miami's last four home games against teams with a road winning percentage of less than .400 while the under is 6-2 in Brooklyn's last eight games as a single-digit underdog of seven or more points. 10* Under (737) Brooklyn Nets/(738) Miami Heat

The Clippers escaped with a huge win on Sunday as they rallied from a 22-point deficit to win by two points to even this series. I think that momentum carries over into Tuesday. Los Angeles shot just 25 percent in the first quarter and trailed by as many as 16 points in the final period before the huge comeback to stay in the series. The Clippers know they can win here as they did so in Game One and the value is on their side as they have failed to cover the last three games against the Thunder. Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook have played outstanding basketball in the series, but the Thunder have lost when others haven't produced. The Clippers had success with Chris Paul guarding Durant at times in the second half on Sunday. Though Durant made 7 of 10 field goals after the break, he also committed seven turnovers and Paul is known for his exceptional defense. It is that defense as a whole that will be important tonight. The Clippers have covered 10 of 16 games this season as road underdogs and they have won an outstanding 43 of 55 games outright when playing with one day of rest. The road team has dominated this series since the end of the regular season and while Los Angeles has an excellent shot at winning outright, we will grab the points and take the cover at the very least. 10* (735) Los Angeles Clippers

After rolling in the first two games of this series, Miami got rolled in Game Three in Brooklyn but I expect a rebound tonight in Game Four to take control of this series. The Heat lost all four regular season meetings as the Nets were able to come up with huge plays in crunch-time which equaled three one-point wins and one double-overtime victory. Obviously all of those games could have gone the other way and Miami proved it is the better team in the first two games of this series and it now needs to do so again. Brooklyn shot lights out in Game Three as it went 52.8 percent from the floor including 60 percent from long range on 15-25 shooting but don't expect to see those types of numbers again as Miami is much better defensively. After the game, LeBron James addressed both the intensity that was lacking in Game Three, as well as the inability to keep the Nets from making 15 three-pointers. "We have to be better in Game Four," he said. "We understand that. The loose balls we gave up two threes on, not getting on the floor, we gave up some easy ones. And we can't allow that." Miami is laying an extra point and a half than it did in Game Three but it does not amount to much as it is still a one possession line. The Heat are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a loss of more than 10 points while the Nets are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games following a win. 10* (729) Miami Heat

After blowing away Oklahoma City on the road in Game One of this series, the Clippers have lost the last two games, including the most recent one at home, and have thus given the home court advantage back to the Thunder. Now the goal is to even up this series and avoid a 3-1 hole and having to go back to Oklahoma City to try and stay alive. Los Angeles is 37-9 at home so the loss here on Friday was a rare one and it has not lost two straight games at home all season. The Clippers are a perfect 8-0 straight up and 7-1 ATS in their eight home games following a loss in their most recent home game. Arguably even more impressive is that the Clippers longest winning streak this season is just two games as they are 5-0 straight up and 4-1 ATS following two consecutive losses. Oklahoma City will be no pushover as it wants to take control of this series and while it has won three straight road games, it is just 5-6 in its last 11 games on the highway. Going back further, the Thunder are just 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 road games. Look for a great effort from the Clippers today as they even up the series on Sunday. 10* (726) Los Angeles Clippers

We are banking on the third time being the charm for Portland as it looks to stay alive in this series and avoid going down 3-0. The Blazers have been dominated in the first two games of this series, losing by 24 and 17 points and while we were on the wrong side both times, a return home will definitely help them. Portland is 33-11 at home including wins in nine of their last 12 games and it is catching points which is a rarity as it is 2-0 ATS as a home underdog this season. The Spurs are playing their best basketball of the playoffs right now as in addition to the two blowout wins over the Blazers, they dominated Dallas in the final game of their opening series, winning by 23 points. All of those games were at home and while San Antonio is a very solid road team, it is just 10-12 ATS on the highway against winning teams. Additionally, it is 0-4 ATS in its last four road games, losing three of those games outright. Portland has now gone six straight games without a cover and that is playing into this number as well which adds contrarian value to it. The Blazers have covered 10 of the last 13 meetings at home against the Spurs and they get back into the series with a must win tonight. 10* (724) Portland Trailblazers

We played on Portland on Tuesday and it was clearly a horrible call but that won't stop us from betting on them again tonight. The bounce angle has worked pretty well this season after a few years of it going the other way because the linesmakers caught on and have shaded the line the other way but in the case tonight, we are actually getting a better number. That is due to the overall dominance that San Antonio put forth in Game One but this is not that big of an advantage matchup for the Spurs as that game indicates. Portland never led in Game One and trailed by 26 at halftime so it was over early but I expect a much better effort tonight. The Blazers rushed their plays and didn't allow them to develop and that was likely a sign of nerves which was surprising considering they went to Houston in Game One of the opening round and played great. Additionally, they gave up 13 offensive rebounds and way too many second-chance points to a team that places relatively low emphasis on both areas offensively as we mentioned in the Game One analysis. Despite the easy win, the Spurs are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall while going 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a win. The Blazers are still respectable on the road, going 6-2 ATS in their last eight games on the highway. It will be far from surprising to see Portland tie this series up but at the very least, stay within this big number tonight. 10* (715) Portland Trailblazers

Oklahoma City could not have played a worse game to open this series as they trailed by as many as 29 points and was pretty much done from the start after allowing 39 first quarter points. The Thunder committed 18 turnovers leading to 23 Los Angeles points which certainly is not going to get things done and consequentially, they suffered their worst home playoff loss in six seasons since relocating from Seattle to Oklahoma City. It was the second straight home loss to the Clippers after going down by eight points back in February and we will see a huge effort on Wednesday to avoid going down 2-0 in this series and putting their backs squarely against the wall. Credit has to go out to the Clippers for dominating on the road as they had won just one of their previous four road games coming in and are now just 1-4 ATS in their last five road games. While it was a great performance, Los Angeles was just 17-30 from the free throw line and while it may be considered an aberration, fouling DeAndre Jordan is a definite option going forward as he is shooting a putrid 42.8 percent from the stripe this season. Oklahoma City is 17-9 this season after a loss and the Thunder are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games following a double-digit loss at home while the Clippers are 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight games following a win of more than 10 points. Look for the Thunder to return the favor on Wednesday and square up this series. 10* (712) Oklahoma City Thunder

The Spurs won for us on Sunday as they easily took care of Dallas in Game Seven which ended up being a tougher than expected series. Now they have a quick turnaround against the Blazers which finished off their series against Houston in six games and ended last Friday so they have a big edge in time off. Additionally, that last second win in Game Six would have been tough to get over from had Portland had to play shortly thereafter so it will not be in a letdown spot. While the Spurs owned the best record in the NBA, Portland actually matches up well as the advantages that Houston had against the Blazers, they now have against San Antonio. San Antonio does not draw many fouls nor do they focus on offensive rebounds. If the Blazers want to keep the tempo high they should be able to push more easily against the Spurs than they did against the Rockets. San Antonio proved vulnerable at times against a Dallas team with similar offensive and defensive efficiency numbers as Portland, failing to achieve peak play until a dominant performance in the final game. We saw the Spurs barely hold on against Dallas in Game One while Portland was able to win in Houston in Game One and it can use that confidence here. The Blazers have played well the last couple years against the Spurs and they come in riding a 6-1 ATS run in their last seven road games while the Spurs are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games against winning teams. 10* (707) Portland Trailblazers

By now, everybody knows that the Nets dominated Miami during the regular season as they won all four meetings against Miami. Were they the better team or were they simply fortunate? It is definitely the latter in my opinion as they were able to come up with huge plays in crunch-time which equaled three one-point wins and one double-overtime victory. Obviously all of those games could have gone the other way and Miami will be out to prove that is the case as this is a statement game for the Heat. And because of those regular season losses, they will have full attention here. Miami is coming off a sweep against Charlotte which was no surprise and the extra time off is a big benefit here considering that Brooklyn was taken to the brink as it needed a one point win on the road in Game Seven on Sunday to clinch the series. With the short turnaround, the Nets flew directly from Toronto to Miami so they are at a severe disadvantage because of that. The Heat's seven-day break between playoff series was spent conditioning and battling against one another as if it were preseason-training camp. Last season, the Heat had a long break after sweeping the Milwaukee Bucks and then lost to the Chicago Bulls in Game One of the second round and they will be using that as motivation here. Look for Miami to come out strong, set the tone and eventually pull away for the easy win in the series opener. 10* (706) Miami Heat

Washington has had three extra days off in preparation for this series and while that could help the defense, I think the offense will benefit more as they should be highly energized against a likely tired Pacers defense. The Wizards went under in their final game against the Bulls but prior to that, they had gone over in six straight games. The Pacers meanwhile stayed under in their final two games against Atlanta as they really picked up the defensive intensity and going back, five of the last six games stayed under. As mentioned, the Pacers could be tired playing with just one day of rest and that will hurt the defense more than anything else. While we are getting a good number based on recent games, this total has a lot of value included in it and part of that is due to the regular season series. All three games stayed under the total and by a lot for that matter but at the same time, the lowest over/under in those three games was 185.5 so you can see the big drop here. Both teams went over in their first round series openers which makes since as it was a feeling out the opposition for both sides and I expect the same to happen here. As mentioned, the over is 6-1 in the last seven Wizards games and the over is 5-2 in the seven games Washington played following three or more days rest while the over is 5-2 in the last seven Pacers home games. 10* Over (701) Washington Wizards/(702) Indiana Pacers

This is going to be a very popular public play but I am not too concerned with that here as we are getting some decent value in my opinion despite the home team advantages which could make this line bigger. The Spurs have been at the disadvantage in this series at the betting window however as the Mavericks have covered each of the six games in the role of underdog, obviously winning three of those outright. This may come as a surprise to many after the Spurs had won the previous nine meetings in this series but here we are back in San Antonio for the deciding game. We played on the Spurs in Game Six and things were looking good entering the fourth quarter after they outscored Dallas by 11 points in the third period but the defense fell apart in the final 12 minutes as San Antonio allowed 37 points and gave up a pivotal 14-2 run that put the Mavericks in front for good. While the fourth quarter defense was bad, head coach Gregg Popovich said the first quarter defense was worse and arguably. Overall, the Spurs allowed 71 points on 56.3-percent shooting in two quarters in a close-out playoff game and that is something Popovich will certainly fix. San Antonio is 18-4 following a loss this season and while it has been laying a goose egg in the cover department of late, this is the time the Spurs show why they are the best team in the NBA still. 10* (550) San Antonio Spurs

Facing elimination, Brooklyn came out strong in Game Six as it never trailed, built a 26-point lead and held off a late rally to extend this series. Now the teams travel back to Toronto for Game Seven on Sunday and while the home court has not been totally dominating, I think it plays a big role in this deciding game. If for nothing else, we are seeing some exceptional value as the -2.5 lines that are available are the lowest we have seen this series and are half of what Toronto opened at in Game One. What has exactly changed to make this line this much shorter than the opener? There is a lot of talk about experience and the Nets certainly have more of it but I feel that is completely offset by Toronto playing this game at home as we saw what experience and a home floor can do with the Nets on Friday. The x-factor here is Kyle Lowry. He, along with DeMar DeRozan, have accounted for nearly 50 percent of their offense in this series but Lowry was just 4-16 for 11 points on Friday so it will be important for him to bounce back. We could also use a poor game from Deron Williams as he has scored 24, 22 and 23 points in the Nets' three victories in this series, while averaging just 12.7 ppg in their three losses. The Nets are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games following a win while Toronto is 18-6-2 ATS in its last 26 games following a loss. Neither franchise has won a Game Seven in the NBA Playoffs but that changes for Toronto on Sunday. 10* (546) Toronto Raptors

We won with Oklahoma City in Game six as the Thunder rolled to a 20-point win in a game that was never close from the start. That sets up Game Seven back home for Oklahoma City and even though it has a big home court edge, I expect this game to be a lot closer that the last. Let's not forget that the previous four games all went into overtime so for the most part, this has been a tightly contested series. Memphis was out of sorts on defense and its offense was arguably worse as it shot just 37.3 percent from the floor including 21.4 percent from long range on 3-14 shooting. Not helping matters was going just 19-28 from the free throw line while the Thunder took advantage of their own free throws by going 23-25 from the charity stripe. While we mentioned in the Game Six analysis that Oklahoma City has been awesome this season following a loss but Memphis has been even better as it is 25-9 straight up after a defeat so taking the points with the Grizzlies here is just gravy. They are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games after a loss while going 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a double-digit loss and one of those instances was in this series after Memphis lost Game One by 14 points only to come back and win Game Two in overtime. Meanwhile, the Thunder are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a win of more than 10 points. Winning here is no easy task but Memphis has done it twice in this series so we won't see an intimidated team come Saturday. 10* (541) Memphis Grizzlies

We are going against the trends here and banking on the Spurs putting together a dominating performance for the first time in this series. Coming into the playoffs, San Antonio had won eight straight meetings against the Mavericks and the majority of those were not close but now San Antonio is barely getting by. Down 2-1, the Spurs have fought back with two straight wins but they were close enough where Dallas was able to cover both and it has now covered all five games in this series. Going back, the Mavericks are 6-0 ATS in their last six games while the Spurs are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games. Those records I feel are playing into this number as the last time these two teams met in Dallas, San Antonio was favored by 4.5 points and now it has dropped a point and a half since then. This is the spot where a top seed comes to play and while Dallas seems to have nothing left in tank, the Spurs look like they are just now getting comfortable and ready to send a knockout blow. They have found the way to beat Dallas with their solid pick-and-roll offense and it was in fine form in Game Five as the Spurs outscored Dallas 54-28 in the paint and on the night, San Antonio had five different players score over 15 points. Despite the cover struggles in this series, the Spurs have covered seven of the last 10 meetings in Dallas and going back, the Mavericks are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven home games. 10* (533) San Antonio Spurs

This has been an incredible series. After Oklahoma City won the first game by 14 points, the last four games have been especially close, so close that they all went into overtime which is a new record for consecutive overtime games in a playoff series. For the Thunder to advance, they have to win here and then win back home which has been no easy feat as the Grizzlies have won the last two games played in Oklahoma City. Slow starts have killed the Thunder as they have had to rally numerous times just to force the extra session including Game Five where they had to rally from a 20-point deficit and the biggest lead they had the entire game was just one point. The offense has had trouble against the Memphis defense as the Thunder are shooting just 39.7 percent from the floor and while Kevin Durant is averaging 28.5 ppg in the series, his offensive efficiency has been horrid. They need to have better ball distribution which I mentioned on Saturday when we took the Thunder and it worked as Reggie Jackson came though by scoring 32 points and they need another effort from someone other than Durant or Russell Westbrook. Oklahoma City has won two of the four games played in Memphis this season and with their backs squarely against the wall, the Thunder are forced to make it one more. They are 16-9 this season following a loss while going 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. Meanwhile, the Grizzlies are 4-10-2 ATS in their last 16 games following a win. Oklahoma City pulls away to love another day. 10* (525) Oklahoma City Thunder

We won with the Wizards/Bulls under last night and we are playing this one for a lot of the same reasons and it is considered even more of a contrarian play. This has quietly been one of the best playoff series as three of the four games have gone into overtime and that certainly has not helped the under. All four games of this series have gone over the total and going back to the regular season and last year, 11 straight meetings have surpassed the total. The over/under has stayed pretty consistent though as the linesmakers know they cannot set this one very much higher as it is at a very high number already. We played the under in Game Three and that obviously did not come through but it is based on the contrarian aspect as well as what was stated in the other analysis. These were two of the highest scoring teams in the NBA during the regular season and while it has carried over, the shooting has been average. Portland has shot 46.4 percent from the floor while Houston has shot 43.8 percent from the floor in the first four games so it has been about pace, and overtime, and as long as the shooting percentages remain poor, this definitely has a chance of busting the over streak. With Houston trailing 3-1 in this series and now playing back home in a must win situation, this is the game where the defensive effort is picked up. When breaking down by quarter, the magic number is 54 which is the average per quarter to hit the total and through the first four games, the under is 8-6-2 for quarters that have stayed below the 54-point plateau so there have been more lower scoring periods than higher scoring ones which is the ultimate goal. 10* Under (519) Portland Trailblazers/(520) Houston Rockets

With all of the controversy surrounding their owner, the Clippers came out flat in Game Four, fell behind by as many as 24 points and now have to head home in search of their old winning ways. The good news is that two of the last three games are at home where Los Angeles is 35-8 on the season and while this isn't considered a true must win game just yet, it is as close as you can get. We played on Golden St. in Game Four with the thinking that Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson would bounce back from a poor shooting game in the previous contest and that proved correct as they went a combined 10-22 from long range and as a team, Golden St. shot 55.4 percent from the floor. While the Warriors may have the momentum now, the Clippers will put the distractions aside and come out with a big effort in Game Five. Los Angeles has been one of the best bounceback teams in the NBA this year as it is 20-6 straight up and 19-7 ATS following a loss which includes going 7-1 following a double-digit loss, winning those games by an average of 14.7 ppg. Meanwhile, the Warriors are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games following a win of more than 10 points. 10* (512) Los Angeles Clippers

In what was expected to be a low scoring series, the first four games between Washington and Chicago have all gone over the total. We have seen the over/under steadily rise from the opening game and while we are getting roughly the same number as in Game Four, it is still on the value side and we are able to get a number a little bit higher. The key here is the Chicago defense which has not looked like the typical Chicago defense as it has allowed at least 97 points in each game, although one of those did go into overtime. The Bulls allowed 91.8 ppg during the regular season which was the fewest in the league and their 43 percent shooting allowed was second best. They have allowed Washington to shoot 44.7 percent which isn't bad but the first two games as home were not good. The good thing is that Chicago has gotten progressively better in each game and we will see a big bounceback at home after allowing the Wizards to shoot 48.7 percent in those first two games in Chicago. The Bulls have gone under the total in 20 of 32 games when they are favored at home and while Washington has been more of an over team throughout the season, I fully expect the home team to dictate the pace and clamp down on defense to keep this series alive. 10* Under (507) Washington Wizards/(508) Chicago Bulls

As bad as Indiana has looked at times in this series, it is in good position as it has regained the home court advantage following the victory in Atlanta on Saturday. The Pacers have looked horrible in two of the four games and while they didn't look as bad in Game Four, it was far from a strong effort. Back home, I expect the Pacers make a statement and seize control of this series as this is the perfect opportunity to reestablish themselves as the top team in the Eastern Conference. Lose tonight and they'll go back to Atlanta, where the Pacers have won only three times since December 2006, facing elimination. It has been more than a month since the Pacers starters have strung together consecutive wins and for a top seed, that is certainly a troublesome statement but once they have forced upon themselves with erratic play. The fact of the matter is that Indiana is 36-7 at home despite some recent struggles and while covering has been few and far between, the last game here resulted in a Pacers runaway and we are actually getting a better number this time around. While the Hawks are the only team in the league to win at Indiana twice this season, they are 13 games under .500 on the road and if they are not hitting from long range, which did not happen in the last game here, they have no chance and expect to see the lockdown Indiana defense to again do a great job on the perimeter. 10* (504) Indiana Pacers

The Clippers nearly blew an 18-point lead in Game Three but were able to hold on and pullout the two-point win on Thursday. Los Angeles now has the series lead at 2-1 which makes this a must win for the Warriors and I expect them to get it done. They were able to stay within reach in Game Three despite Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson going a combined 5-19 from long range and the duo tends to respond following poor efforts in their last game. It was a disappointing loss for Golden St. which took over home court after winning one game in Los Angeles but it can again seize control of home court with a win here. The home team had won seven straight in this series prior to the playoffs and going back, the host is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings while the Clippers have covered just once in the last six meetings in Golden St. As mentioned in Thursday's analysis, the Warriors are a rare home underdog and they are now 2-0-1 ATS on the season in this role. They have been solid underdogs all season, going 9-3 ATS as underdogs of fewer than six points and following a loss, Golden St. is 23-9 on the year. 10* (756) Golden St. Warriors

You will hear me talk about the bounce angle, or the zig zag, during the NBA playoffs and while it relates a lot to sides, it has become a lot more powerful with totals as we can catch some excellent value along the way. I feel that is the case here for Game Three between Houston and Portland as we are seeing the total inch up from the first two contests. This is a move we often see as when games go over or under, the next game will take that into account to avoid the public bet of a reoccurrence. And the reoccurrence here is going to have the public all over the over once again. Not only have the first two games of this series gone over but going back to the regular season, all six meeting have surpassed the number. Going back even further, the last nine meetings have gone over the total so you know where the public will be lined up on Friday. These were two of the highest scoring teams in the NBA during the regular season and while it has carried over, the shooting has been average. Portland has shot 45.3 percent from the floor while Houston has shot 42.1 percent from the floor in the first two games so it has been about pace and as long as the shooting percentages remain poor, we should be fine. Going even further contrarian, Portland has gone over the total in five straight games going back to the regular season so that adds some more value. Look for the over streak to be broken on Friday. 10* Under (743) Houston Rockets/(744) Portland Trailblazers

Many may question the mindset of Golden St. after it suffered a 40-point loss to the Clippers in Game Two. I think the Warriors will be just fine as they achieved their goal of splitting the first two games in Los Angeles after winning Game One which brought the home court edge to Golden St. so coming out flat in Game Two was not out of the question. The linesmakers have made an adjustment in the venue switch in my opinion as the Clippers were favored by eight points at home and are now the road favorites here and I feel it is too much of an overadjustment. Golden St. had a rough stretch in the middle of the season at home that concluded in February with a 16-point loss against Charlotte but since then, it has gotten some of its swagger back as it has gone 13-5 over its last 18 games at home which isn't out of this world but it dwarfs its 9-8 home stretch just prior to that. The Clippers have been no slouches on the road after an average start as they are 9-3 in their last 12 games on the highway and while that includes going 4-1-1 ATS as road favorites, they were favorites against non-playoff teams only. The Warriors have been a great bounceback team coming off poor efforts. They are 22-8-1 ATS in their last 31 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game while going 12-2-2 ATS in their last 16 games following a loss of more than 10 points including a 6-1-21 ATS record this season. The home team won all four meetings during the regular season and this is just the third time Golden St. has been a home underdog all season, going 1-0-1 ATS the first two times. 10* (738) Golden St. Warriors

You will hear me talk about the bounce angle, or the zig zag, during the NBA playoffs and while it relates a lot to sides, it has become a lot more powerful with totals as we can catch some excellent value along the way. Dallas and San Antonio square off tonight for Game Two and the Mavericks still have to be hurting from blowing a 10-point fourth quarter lead as the Spurs went on a 14-0 run to take the opener. That game stayed well below the total, by 28 points to be exact, and because of that we are catching a great number in Game Two. The first game total closed at 203 and for tonight, we are seeing a lot of 198 totals out there so we can use the bounce angle to our advantage. This is a move we often see as when games go over or under, the next game will take that into account to avoid the public bet of a recurrence. While this is a purely situational theory, the matchup is on our side as well. Three of the four regular season meetings went over the total and the one game that did stay under, enough points were scored to surpass what we are given tonight. These are two of the highest scoring teams in the NBA and during the regular season, the Spurs and Mavericks ranked second and fourth in shooting percentage respectively and that was not on display in Game One but we should see a significant improvement tonight. Rest is key as Dallas is 8-0 to the over in its last eight games playing with two days rest while the Spurs are 7-2 to the over in their last nine games playing with two days rest. 10* Over (729) Dallas Mavericks/(730) San Antonio Spurs

The Pacers were one of five higher seeds to lose the first game of their series and so far the Clippers bounced back to win Game Two, and handily, with the four remaining teams still to play. Those five teams are already in a hole as they have lost home court advantage and losing the second game would be a disaster for the rest of them including Indiana which has really fallen on some hard times, Getting booed on their home floor cannot have felt very good and if there is any character left for this team, we will see it tonight. We are actually laying a shorter price than we did in Game One and with Atlanta having now covered six straight games, this one fall right into our wheelhouse. Indiana was outscored by eight points at the free throw line in Game One, which was the difference in the final score, and this was similar to the Memphis/Oklahoma City game where the Grizzlies were outscored by 10 points from the line in the opener but made that up in the second game. I expect a similar result here and that is only one factor that the Pacers should turn around tonight. The Hawks are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game and while the Pacers ATS run has been dismal, I expect a big rebound on Tuesday night. 10* (722) Indiana Pacers

Oklahoma City rolled in Game One of this series on Saturday as it won by 14 points but look for Memphis to play a much better game tonight. The Grizzlies never led, trailed by as many as 25 points and shot just 36.3 percent from the floor. The big difference however was at the free throw line as Memphis was just 18-31 while the Thunder went 28-32 from the charity stripe. The Grizzlies came into this series riding a five-game winning streak and they were one of the best teams in the league after a slow start as they went 35-13 over their last 48 games of the regular season and bouncing back from losses was the key. After a five-game losing streak in mid-December, Memphis won 16 of its last 18 games following a loss covering 13 of those games. This included a 6-1 ATS mark as underdogs with six of those being outright wins. This sets up similar to last season, in two different instances. Memphis lost Game One against the Clippers by 11 points but played much better in Game Two, losing by just a bucket before going on to win the next four games. In the second round against Oklahoma City, the Grizzlies lost the first game and then went on to win four straight. Memphis has covered four of its last five games following a double-digit loss and that run continues tonight. 10* (717) Memphis Grizzlies

Chicago got a pretty favorable draw in the postseason and it came about by losing its final regular season game of the season at Charlotte. The Bulls dropped to the fourth seed in the Eastern Conference which means a series against Washington instead of Brooklyn and possible date with Indiana instead of Miami and both of those are much favorable matchups. Chicago is a dangerous team with its stifling defense and even though Washington won the regular season series 2-1, the majority of the Wizards players have no playoff experience. Washington was definitely a pleasant surprise this season but it finished only six games over .500 and even worse, it went 4-11 against other playoff teams since the All-Star break. Conversely, the Bulls have been one of the best team in the league even without superstar Derrick Rose. The Bulls, after their 12-18 start, finished 36-16, the best record in the Eastern Conference over that period. While many teams would fear playing Indiana or Miami, it is those teams that should fear playing the Bulls. The last thing Chicago wants is to give the home floor to Washington so it has to get out of town with a sweep which I fully expect. The Bulls are 14-4-1 ATS in their last 19 games following a loss while the Wizards are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games against teams with a winning home record. Chicago won 22 of its 30 games when favored at home and with a substantial postseason experience edge, its gets out to a quick start in this series. 10* (714) Chicago Bulls

The Spurs have dominated the Mavericks the last two seasons, winning all eight regular season meetings while covering six of those including three of four this season. That is a big reason this is the biggest line Dallas has seen this season against San Antonio and by a big margin for that matter. The first two games in San Antonio, the Spurs were favored by 5.5 and 6.5 points and while one was a blowout, the Mavericks covered the other matchup. Dallas has been solid on the road with a 23-18 record and it has covered six of its last seven on the highway, winning six of those outright with the only loss coming by just a single point in the season finale at Memphis in overtime. The Spurs once again had a spectacular season but they went just 3-3 down the stretch not counting the regular season finale when they rested their starters. San Antonio has had home court advantage numerous times over the years but surprisingly, it has struggled to get out of the first two games with two wins especially when the Spurs enter the postseason not on a winning streak like it did in 2012 when it came into the playoffs on a 10-game winning streak. Dallas is 11-5 ATS this season as an underdog of four or more points while going a perfect 2-0 ATS when getting eight or more points. That included an outright win in Indiana and a narrow loss in Miami. Additionally, the Mavericks are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 road games against teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. 10* (709) Dallas Mavericks

With everyone down on Indiana, this is a statement game for the Pacers. They backed into the top seed as Miami pretty much gave up the number one seed by resting starters down the stretch but Indiana likely would have gotten the top seed anyway. We won with Indiana in its second to last game against the Thunder and that was a big win as it halted a 3-8 stretch and then a season ending win over Orlando provides them some much needed momentum heading into the postseason. One of those losses during that stretch came at home against Atlanta where the Pacers lost by 19 points and the game was not even that close as they never led and trailed by as many as 35 points. Now it is payback time. The Hawks finished strong as they went 6-2 over their last eight games and they have won three straight on the highway but this is now a whole different ballgame. Overall, Atlanta is 14-27 on the road which is the worst road record of all teams that are in the postseason and while it went 6-0 as a road favorite, it went just 8-26 as a road underdog. The Hawks are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game while Indiana is a very solid 8-2 ATS as a favorite between 6 and 8.5 points. This is rematch of the first round series from a season ago in which the Pacers won 4-2 and that included a 17-point win in Game One and I expect more of the same this year in the opener. 10* (706) Indiana Pacers

Game One of any NBA Playoff series is important for the home team as a loss gives the home court edge to the opponent and we are getting a very good price with Toronto in this opening game. The Raptors won the Atlantic Division by four games over Brooklyn and locked down the number three seed in the Eastern Conference and they hope to take advantage of a Nets teams that struggled down the stretch of the regular season, losing four of their last five games. Toronto finished 26-15 at home which was just the fifth best home record in the Eastern Conference but after a 3-7 start, the Raptors went 23-8 down the stretch at home. Brooklyn went 16-25 on the road which is the second worst road record of all playoff teams and it wasn't exactly competitive down the stretch, going 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games and overall they won just seven of 23 games when listed as road underdogs. Even worst, Brooklyn is 2-8 ATS this season as an underdog of fewer than four points. The Raptors success can be attributed to not putting together big losing skids and they have won 12 of their last 14 games following a loss while going back, they are 17-4-1 ATS in their last 22 games following a loss. This has been a close series with each team winning two games including one each on the opponents home floor but the biggest blowout came here in the second meeting with the Raptors winning by 16 points. 10* (702) Toronto Raptors

This is one of the few games on the Wednesday card that involves two teams still playing for something and in this cased, it is playoff seeding. The Bulls are tied with the Raptors, which play the Knicks tonight, for third place in the Eastern Conference and while they are locked into a homecourt advantage in the first round no matter what, Charlotte arguably has a lot more to play for. The Bobcats will either finish seventh in the Eastern Conference and be matched against the Heat, or finish in sixth place and face the Raptors. Either a Wizards victory at Boston or a Bobcats loss to the Bulls locks the Bobcats matchup against the Heat. While a Washington victory is likely, Charlotte will not know the outcome until this game is done since that other game starts an hour later. Bobcats head coach Steve Clifford has expressed the importance of this game and not just winning but playing good as he has not liked the effort the last few games. Additionally, the Bobcats should be hungry as they have lost the first three meetings with Chicago and will be out to avoid the season series sweep. The Bobcats are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games against teams with a winning road record while Chicago is just 3-6 ATS as an underdog of fewer than three points. 10* (522) Charlotte Bobcats