Sports Picks & Predictions

We lost with Memphis on Friday as it fell behind early against the Spurs and while it made a push in the third quarter, it could never get over the hump. The Grizzlies lost Marc Gasol early in the second quarter and unfortunately, that changed the dynamic of the game. They were coming off four straight road wins prior to that and I feel this is a good spot to bounceback at home where they have dropped three of their last four games. Houston has won four of its last five games including a home win on Saturday against Minnesota. The Rockets are just 3-3 on the road however and while they have a slightly better overall record, I do not think they should be favored here. They have played the 22nd ranked schedule in the NBA while the Grizzlies have played the second toughest so that needs to be taken into account as well. Houston is 8-19 ATS in its last 27 road games after allowing 100 points or more two straight games while going 3-9-1 ATS in its last 13 games following a win of more than 10 points. Memphis meanwhile is 21-9 ATS in its last 30 games against teams allowing 43 percent shooting or less. James Harden will miss his second straight game for Houston and that is where Memphis can take advantage with a strong defensive effort. 10* (710) Memphis Grizzlies

After a slow start, Memphis has found its groove winning its last four games all coming on the road. The Grizzlies last loss came at home against Toronto by 16 points so they will be out to make up for that as well as getting some redemption on top of it. Memphis lost the first meeting this season, a seven-point setback in the first game of the season and in addition, the Grizzlies will be out for payback after getting swept in last year's Western Conference finals. The Spurs bring in the best record in the NBA at 10-1, tied with Indiana, and because of that, we are catching a very favorable line. Memphis has been favored in the last four meetings but now it is catching a point and it comes down to the records but with the Grizzlies finally hitting their stride, they have a ton of value tonight. Memphis is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 home games against teams that are outscoring their opponents by nine or more ppg while going 23-9 ATS in their last 32 home games against teams with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. Meanwhile the Spurs have dropped four straight against the number against teams with a winning record. 10* (512) Memphis Grizzlies

We won with Washington last night but we will be going against the Wizards tonight as they hit the road for the second of a back-to-back set. Washington improved to 2-2 at home with the Tuesday victory but is still just 3-7 overall and the 1-5 road record has been their undoing. The only road win for Washington was at Philadelphia which started off hot but has lost seven of its last nine games. Cleveland has been off since Saturday when it defeated Washington on the road in overtime. It was the Cavaliers first road win of the season which came after their first home loss of the season the night before against Charlotte. That obviously makes this a revenge game for Washington but backing road revenge in the NBA is something I stay away from. Especially with a team that struggles consistently on the highway. The rest factor is a big factor here as well as Cleveland has been off for a while and it is 4-0 ATS in its last four games playing with three or more days rest while the Wizards are 0-5 ATS in their last five games playing with no rest. The Cavaliers get back to their winning ways at home tonight. 10* (504) Cleveland Cavaliers

Washington has lost four straight games including its last one at home in overtime against Cleveland after blowing a 15-point lead. The Wizards were considered playoff contenders before the season started and while there is plenty of time left, a 2-7 start is not exactly what they envisioned. First and foremost, they need to take care of business at home where they are 1-2 as six of the first nine games were on the highway. This is actually an exceptional spot for Washington as coming off that loss to Cleveland will have them energized and it catches Minnesota in a great situation. The Timberwolves are off to a 7-4 start after a blowout win over Boston on Saturday. The Timberwolves are 5-1 at home but just 2-3 on the road including splitting as road favorites. Minnesota has a game at home against the Clippers tomorrow which puts in a big lookahead situation and revenge situation as well as it lost the first meeting against them this season by a bucket just over a week ago. The Wizards are 26-12-1 ATS in their last 39 games against teams with a winning record and they have covered seven of the last eight meetings at home. 10* (702) Washington Wizards

Brooklyn got hammered on the road on Wednesday at Sacramento as the Nets never led and ended up losing by 21 points as a four-point favorite. That dropped them to 0-4 on the road and they have not come close to covering a game on the highway, losing those four games by a combined 64.5 points against the spread. It is safe to think that the linesmakers have no choice but to keep the heavy wood off of them until they can show they can win on the road. That finally happens on Friday as this one is a big one considering Brooklyn has a game against the Clippers on Saturday and sitting winless on the road, there is no chance they are looking ahead to that. Phoenix lost a touch one in Portland on Wednesday by a point but at 5-2, the Suns are one of the pleasant surprises this season. They are a perfect 4-0 at home and while I feel the winless Nets break their streak, I also think the Suns streak comes to an end as well. The Suns are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games against teams with a road winning percentage of less than .400 while the Nets have covered four of their last five after a double-digit loss. 10* (715) Brooklyn Nets

The Cavaliers are at least one thing this season and that is consistent. Following their 29-point loss at Minnesota on Wednesday, they fell to 0-6 on the road and only two of those losses were decided by single digits. Conversely, Cleveland is 3-0 at home and while those wins have come by only seven points combined, wins are wins are the Cavaliers are due for a big breakout on their home floor. Enter Charlotte. The Bobcats are coming off an upset win at Boston to improve to 4-4 overall and 2-2 on the road. This is definitely a team on the upswing and while the spot was good in Boston, it is not good here. The Bobcats caught the Celtics on a five-game ATS winning streak and now they catch Cleveland on an eight-game ATS losing streak. That is a streak I love to go against and adding to it is that one of those losses came in Charlotte as the Cavaliers lost to the Bobcats by six points as a 3.5-point chalk. Now they are only favored by a few points more at home and presents us with excellent value. The Bobcats are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 road games against teams with a winning home record. 10* (710) Cleveland Cavaliers

While most will be expecting a shootout in Oakland on Thursday, I am expecting a lower scoring game that should stay below this inflated number. The Thunder played last night which made it three straight overs and they have gone under in four of their last five games playing with no rest. Golden St. meanwhile has gone over in two straight games but those totals were lower than tonight's and note than the Warriors have gone under in all three games this season when the total is higher than 206 which is the case tonight. This has been a very high scoring series as well and that is going to add to the public money on the over and all of this is beneficial to us as the number is inflated based on the public reaction. Oklahoma City is 14-3 to the under in its last 17 road games after scoring 100 points or more five straight games while the under is 7-1 in the Warriors last eight games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Additionally, we have a league-wide situation favoring both teams as we play the under in the first half of the season where the total is between 200 and 209.5 involving teams with a winning percentage between .600 and .750, playing a team with a winning record. This situation is 48-17 (73.8 percent) to the under the last five seasons. 10* Under (503) Oklahoma City Thunder/(504) Golden St. Warriors

We played this total last week which stayed well below the number. We got the possessions and shots we wanted but they just were not falling last Friday as Los Angeles and New Orleans shot a combined 41 percent from the floor while making only nine three-pointers. Tonight we are catching a better number as this is the first Lakers total that is under 200 on the season and a lot of that has to do with three straight unders hitting the window in their games. As for New Orleans, it has also gone under the total in three straight games as defensively, they remain one of the best in fewest shots allowed as 80 has been the highest total the Pelicans have given up. The Lakers are averaging 89 shots per game at home while New Orleans is averaging 86 shots per game on the road and the Lakers defense is not going to be helping much as they are allowing an average of 106.5 ppg to rank near the bottom of the NBA and were outscored 50-32 in the paint and 19-9 in transition in their last game against Minnesota. Meanwhile, the Pelicans lost in Phoenix in their most recent game on Sunday as they committed 17 turnovers and scored only 16 points in the first quarter and no offense is going to overcome those figures. Also, Despite going only 4-13 with three-pointers against the Suns, the Pelicans still lead the NBA with 43.8 shooting percentage from behind the arc. The Lakers are 21-7 to the over in their last 28 games after three straight games where they shot 42 percent or worse. Additionally, the over is 12-4 in the Lakers last 16 games against team with a losing record while the over is 8-2 in the Pelicans last 10 games against teams with a winning percentage below .400. 10* Over (507) New Orleans Pelicans/(508) Los Angeles Lakers

After opening the season 3-1, Houston has lost its last two games, both at home against the Lakers and Clippers. While it is difficult to state a game is a must win game this early in the season, this one fits for the Rockets as they need to pick up a victory before hitting the road. The offense has been non-existent during the two-game skid as Houston has shot just 41.3 percent from the floor while putting up only 98 and 94 points. This after averaging 112.8 ppg in its previous four games and while its faces what looks like a tough Toronto defense, the Raptors have not really been tested much. Looking at the schedule shows most of the Raptors opponents are offensively inept and their 93.9 ppg allowed, which is fourth fewest in the NBA is skewed because of that. Toronto is 0-3 against the NBA's top 16 while its 24-point home win over Utah on Saturday is giving it a little too much credit here. The Raptors are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games following a win of more than 10 points while the Rockets are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 home games after having lost two of their last three games. The health of James Harden was clearly an issue against the Clippers as he had trouble attacking against them, getting to the line only three times. The time off between this games can only help him. Getting him back in gear and having a clear edge down low gives Houston a big edge in this matchup. The home team has dominated this series with wins in 12 straight meetings. 10* (712) Houston Rockets

We played against Brooklyn last night as the Nets lost in overtime against Washington to fall to 0-3 on the road. The Nets may have been guilty of looking ahead to this game as they played pretty poor despite having a big lead at one point as 21 turnovers can be a tell-tale sign of a team not focused in the game as well as putting up a poor defensive effort. You can guarantee they will be focused tonight against Indiana which at 6-0, it the lone undefeated team in the NBA. The Pacers are coming off a win over Toronto last night as they had to fight off an early 12-point deficit to pull away. While the back-to-back games is in play for both sides, this is the fourth game in five nights for the Pacers and even though it is early in the season, it is never an easy scenario for teams and players. The Nets are hoping Paul Pierce can shake his recent illness and show some improvement as he had a season-low four points while sinking just 1 of 5 from the field against the Wizards. It is still up in the air whether or not Kevin Garnett will be taking the night off or not but at this point, it really doesn't matter either way as he is averaging a mere 6.0 ppg on 30.4 percent shooting. The Pacers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games against teams with a losing record while the Nets are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a loss. Brooklyn dominated this series last season by sweeping all three games and it continues as it puts an end to the perfect start for Indiana. 10* (706) Brooklyn Nets

After going 38-3 at home last season, the Nuggets are already just one loss away from matching that mark this year as they have started 0-2 at the Pepsi Center and 0-3 overall. They are coming off a loss against San Antonio and it was a game they could have and should have won but they were outscored 30-16 in the final period to lose by eight points. During a lengthy film session Wednesday, Nuggets head coach Brian Shaw reiterated the need to push the tempo at home and minimize turnovers that have plagued Denver in two of its first three games. The Nuggets committed 19 turnovers in their opener at Sacramento and added 23 miscues against San Antonio. Denver has a significant edge down low as the Nuggets are fourth in the league in rebounding while the Hawks are 25th so look for the Nuggets to dominate the boards down low with Kenneth Faried and Javale McGee. Atlanta won in Sacramento in its last game as it nearly blew a 19-point fourth quarter margin as it got down to one point before the Hawks were able to finish off the Kings. That evened the Hawks record at 2-2 and got them their first road win of the season where they are currently 1-2. Winning consecutive road games was a challenge last season as Atlanta went just 2-6 on the road immediately following a road victory. Despite the poor start, this is still a very solid Denver team that will be in the playoff mix once again and it has to take care of its home court. The Nuggets have won eight of the last nine games in Denver against the Hawks so this is a good place to grab that elusive first home win of the season. Denver is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games against teams averaging 103 or more ppg while the Hawks are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine games after scoring 100 or more points in their previous game. 10* (704) Denver Nuggets

The Pacers blew our ticket last night as a big third quarter led them to their fourth straight victory to open the season and remain the lone undefeated team in the NBA which is definitely a surprise this early in the season. It will be a test to keep it going however as the schedule has set up in the Pacers favor as through the first week of the season, they have faced the 30th ranked slate in the NBA. Now they will face their biggest test of the early season even though the Bulls are not playing to their ability yet. Chicago is off to a 1-2 start, losing both games on the road and narrowly defeating the Knicks at home by a point. The Bulls are 0-3 ATS and coming off what can be considered an embarrassing loss at Philadelphia on Saturday, they put together an intense practice on Monday which lasted for three hours. They hope to carry the intensity over into games and especially this one as Chicago is in need of a big win. It is also in need of hitting some shots. After three games, the Bulls are 29th in the NBA in three-point shooting at 23.2 percent. Only the Thunder is worse at 22.1 percent. In addition, the Bulls are just 22nd in three-point attempts at 18.7. Against the Pacers' tough interior defense, the Bulls are going to need to score over the top which is something the Pistons could not do last night, making just 20 percent from long range on 5-25 shooting. Derrick Rose also needs to step things up as he has shot just 28.8 percent from the floor through the first three games and has been to the free throw line just 10 times. He has had some of his best game against Indiana and this could finally be his season breakthrough. The Bulls went 1-3 against Indiana last season but in the other 16 games since Rose joined the team, they are 13-3 against the Pacers. The Bulls are 33-13 ATS in their last 46 games coming off an upset loss as a favorite while going 26-9 ATS in their last 35 games after a loss by six points or less. Look for there to be no undefeated teams remaining in the league after tonight. 10* (503) Chicago Bulls

We made a poor call on the Knicks last night as they could not stop Minnesota in the first quarter, allowing 40 points to the Timberwolves and falling behind by 21 points, a deficit they nearly erased but could not overcome. Minnesota is 3-0 for the first time in 12 years but that streak ends tonight. The Timberwolves were pretty average over the last three quarters last night, averaging just 23 points per quarter while getting outscored by 12 points and nearly blowing a 23-point lead. Playing in the second of back-to-back nights will be difficult after last night and last season, Minnesota was just 8-14 playing with no rest including going 4-7 on the road. This is definitely a team on the rise, but now that the cat is out of the bag, the value is going the other way. Cleveland is back home following two road games over the weekend, both resulting in losses. We played against the Cavaliers Friday in Charlotte and after that loss, they traveled to Indiana and were crushed by the Pacers by 15 points. I expect a big bounceback effort tonight on their home floor as going back, the Cavaliers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a loss of more than 10 points. Minnesota meanwhile is 5-15-1 ATS in its last 21 games following a win while going back further, it is 7-18 ATS in its last 25 games coming off a win as an underdog. Look for Cleveland to grab the comfortable win at home, thus covering with this short number. 10* (504) Cleveland Cavaliers

The Knicks return home following a last second loss in Chicago on Thursday night as Derrick Rose scored the game winning floater with just 5.7 remaining. New York fell to 1-1 with the loss as the lone victory came here at MSG against the Bucks to open the season. Expectations are high once again in New York as even Garden Chairman said the Knicks should be expected to win the NBA Championship and it starts by taking care of business at home. Last season, the Knicks won a playoff series for the first time in 13 years thanks to having the home court advantage as it was 31-10 at MSG during the regular season and 5-2 in the playoffs. Additionally, the Knicks were able to bounce back well as they went 21-12 following a loss and I expect a big bounce back effort tonight. Minnesota meanwhile is off to a 2-0 start and it looks to start a season 3-0 for the first time since 2001 but the problem is that the Timberwolves are not at home. Both victories to open the season came at home including a resounding victory over Oklahoma City following an overtime win over Orlando but Minnesota went just 11-30 on the road last season including 9-29 when getting points. Like New York, the Timberwolves were a solid team when coming of a loss but they went only 7-23 following a victory and one of those losses came here in New York right after they defeated the Thunder in December. The line then was eight points and I'm not sold that the gap has closed this much. The Timberwolves are 3-11-1 ATS in their last 15 road games against teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600 while the Knicks are 18-2 ATS in their last 20 home games after playing a game as an underdog. 10* (710) New York Knicks

The NBA card is filled with a lot of three-in-four matchups including both teams here. Houston is coming off a win last night at home against the Mavericks as James Harden had another big night scoring while Dwight Howard again had a huge night on the boards. The Rockets now hit the road for the first time and after being favored by 6.5 points at home, they are now favored by the same amount on the road. Basically this is saying that Houston would be favored by 2.5 points against Dallas on a neutral floor and 10.5 points against Utah on a neutral floor and this differential of eight points is way off. This is the Rockets first road game of the season and high expectations lead to high point spreads which is the case here. Utah meanwhile is off to a 0-2 start and expectations are not very high on the Jazz this season as they cut loose on a lot of their roster but they didn't get to the point of a total rebuild. They lost at home in their opener against Oklahoma City by just three points and lost by a similar margin last night in Phoenix. The fact they head home is a big advantage in this three-in-four situation. Houston was horrendous playing with no rest last year and the fact that it is even older this season should not improve that. The Rockets were 6-15 straight up and 8-13 ATS in the second of a back-to-back set including going 0-5 straight up and 1-4 ATS when going from home to on the road. Utah meanwhile was 4-1 straight up and ATS when going from the road to home on no rest a season ago. The Jazz also fall into a solid NBA situation as we play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that had a winning percentage between .450 and .550 from a season ago. This situation is 39-12 ATS (76.5 percent) since 1996. Additionally, the Jazz are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up loss while the Rockets are 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 road games against teams with a losing home record. 10* (512) Utah Jazz

We played against Charlotte on Wednesday and despite losing by 13 points, the Bobcats played a relatively good game. The game was close for the most part but Houston was able to pull away in the fourth quarter and actually got the cover on a last second three-pointer before the shot clock expired. Now the Bobcats are back in Charlotte for their home opener and while this is a team still in rebuilding mode, the first game at home is always a big one. Despite some very rough seasons overall the last two years, Charlotte has won its home opener in each, defeating Milwaukee as a three-point underdog in 2011-12 and defeating Indiana last season as a seven-point underdog. Now underdogs once again, I expect the Bobcats to rise to the occasion. Cleveland meanwhile is coming off a win in its season opener against Brooklyn as it defeated the Nets by four points at home. Now the Cavaliers go from home underdog to road favorite which is a scenario I like to go against. Last season Cleveland was just 10-31 on the road and while one of those wins was here in Charlotte, it was by only two points and the Cavaliers were not favored then and I don't believe they should be favored now. The Cavaliers were road favorites only once last season and while they won and covered, it was a game at Orlando which was missing three of its top players. Charlotte falls into a great situation here as well as we play against teams in the first six games of the season that are coming off a win as an underdog, after closing out last season with five or more straight losses. This situation is 30-8 ATS (78.9 percent) since 1996. 10* (704) Charlotte Bobcats

After winning two straight games against Memphis to open the playoffs last season, the Clippers went on to lose four straight games for a quick exit. That led to the firing of head coach Vinny Del Negro and the Clippers brought in Doc Rivers for a fresh start but the start to the new season did not go as planned. The Lakers bench dominated the Clippers in the fourth quarter and they lost their season opener by 13 points to a team they were not supposed to lose to, especially one without Kobe Bryant. It is now bounceback time for Los Angeles which claims it was not ready and was a good lesson to open the season. I expect the Clippers to rise to the occasion tonight on national television. They take on Golden St. which destroyed the same team that beat the Clippers two nights ago. The Warriors never trailed against the Lakers, built a 35-point lead and showed the rest of the Western Conference they are to be taken serious. Golden St. shot 53.5 percent from the floor including 55.6 percent from long range and while this is a big game for them as well, I do not expect the same sharpshooting tonight on the road. The Warriors were just 19-22 away from home last regular season and went 2-4 on the highway during the playoffs. They were in this situation only once last season where they won at home and played on the road the next night and it resulted in a loss at Sacramento. A similar result is on the table for tonight. The Clippers fall into a great early season situation where we play on favorites in the first six games of the season that are coming off a loss as a road favorite, a playoff team from last season which lost four or more of their last five games. This situation is 28-7 ATS (80 percent) since 1996 including a perfect 6-0 ATS the last three seasons with an average point differential of +13.3 ppg. 10* (504) Los Angeles Clippers

One of the more improved team in the NBA this season could be the Sacramento Kings. They need to learn how to win on the road but that is not our concern tonight. The Kings have new ownership, a new general manager and a new head coach and this stale franchise will no doubt embrace the change. Sacramento doesn't appear to have the defensive skill to completely reverse their putrid rankings from last year, but with a little focus, effort and good coaching, they could become respectable. If not for anything else, they will be exciting to watch on offense as additions of Ray McCallum and Ben McLemore bring fresh life into the roster. While the Kings are looking to go up, the Nuggets are set to take a major backwards fall. They were 32 games over .500 last season but lost to Golden St. in the first round which eventually led to the firing of head coach George Karl despite being names the NBA Coach of the Year. Denver lost Andre Iguodala to free agency and could be without two additional starters tonight if Ty Lawson cannot go. Danilo Gallinari will be out for at least another month. Even forward Kenneth Faried is not 100 percent. Had this been last season, we could eat up the points Denver is getting here but it is the underdog for a reason. The spread variance is eight points from last year to this year and after nine straight wins in this series, that streak ends tonight. Denver struggled on the road last season to begin with and with so many question marks going into the season opener, including a complete overhaul of the offensive system, those road struggles will be even worse. 10* (726) Sacramento Kings

This is one of the best scenarios to go against on opening day. It is banner day in Miami and we know what that means. The Heat will be lowering their 2012-13 NBA Championship banner on Tuesday night and playing a basketball game is not at the forefront for the players right now. This is a huge event and with that comes a lot of distractions. Players have been saying that once the banner is lowered and the game starts, they will be focused but that is easier said than done. Now let's go back to the NBA Champion angle. Prior NBA Champions are usually slow starting out of the gate the following season since their lines are over-adjusted to start the season. The last 12 NBA Champions (Dallas, Boston, San Antonio, Miami three times, San Antonio, Detroit, San Antonio and LA Lakers three times) have combined for a 38-61 ATS mark (38.4 percent) through their first two weeks of the following year. Distractions and overvaluation are definitely keys to this. We have seen it in the season opening game for the reigning NBA Champions for six of the last seven seasons. Two years ago, Dallas got thumped by Miami. Three years ago, the Lakers won but did not cover against the Rockets. Four years ago, the Lakers won but did not cover in their opener against the Clippers. Five years ago, the Celtics won but did not cover at home against the Cavaliers. Six years ago, the Spurs won but did not cover at home against the Blazers. Seven years ago, Miami lost against the Bulls by 42 points in its opener. Last year, the Heat did cover against Boston giving the recent run its only blemish. While we are looking to fade Miami, this is a big game for Chicago. The Bulls finished 45-37 last year which was a disappointment and it was largely due to Derrick Rose being out. They did make it out of the first round of the playoffs as they got past Brooklyn in seven games but were taken down by Miami in the second round 4-1 after taking the first game. While this is a test for Chicago, I expect greater motivation on its side to get the season started on a high note. 10* (503) Chicago Bulls

The blown lead by San Antonio in Game Six can be viewed two ways. It is going to absolutely crush the Spurs going forward or it will put Miami in a tough spot facing a letdown situation. I feel it is the former as a loss like the one that San Antonio endured on Tuesday is difficult to recover from. The Spurs had this one wrapped up as they were up by five points with 28 seconds remaining and were at the free throw line when it completely unraveled. Two missed free throws, one from Manu Ginobili and one from Kawhi Leonard didn't help while two blown defensive rebounds with Tim Duncan off the floor, led to two second-chance three-pointers for Miami in regulation. The rest is history. Duncan played one of his best postseason games of all-time as he put up 30 points and 17 rebounds but he played more than 44 minutes and managed only five points after halftime. I do not see a repeat and I definitely see some fatigue settling in. It will be tough for the Spurs to come back mentally. "I have no clue how we're going to be reenergized," Manu Ginobili said after the game. "I'm devastated." It lingered into Wednesday as well. "I'm still down," he added. "A blow like that, it's not easy to get back up." Home teams have won 41 of 53 Game Sevens since 1991, covering 31 of those games and this one has the added benefit of the Miami miracle. 10* (714) Miami Heat

We lost with the under on Game Six as it was looking good until the Miami comeback sealed our fate which sent the game into overtime. I am coming back with the under tonight however as I feel the situation is perfect for a very low scoring affair. It is also going against the over streak which many will be riding once again. We have now seen the last four games go over the total and the last three have not even been close. Game Four saw 202 points, Game Five saw 218 points and Game Six saw 203 points. People will be expecting to see the high scoring continue because that is what they want to see but I expect the exact opposite here. This is where there is a difference from the past and it is almost as though the linesmakers are trying to bait bettors into taking the over. Whereas the total has risen each of the last three games to compensate for the over action coming in, this number has actually gone down from Game Six so many will feel there is value by taking the over. That may be the case from a raw numbers standpoint but not a situational standpoint. History shows these games are played tighter than others as the last three NBA Finals Game Seven total scores have been 162, 155 and 174. Clearly, defense is emphasized. We also have a great situation on our side as we play on the under in the NBA Finals where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points. This situation is 50-18 (73.5 percent) to the under since 1996. 10* Under (713) San Antonio Spurs/(714) Miami Heat

We won with the Over in Game Three as the number cleared the total by three points and that gamer triggered an Over barrage as the last two games have also gone over the total. The last two were not even close as Game Four saw 202 points while Game Five saw 218 points. That last game was easily the highest scoring game of the season series between the Heat and Spurs, regular season and playoffs, and it was also the highest scoring regulation game for San Antonio in the playoffs. It was also the highest scoring game for Miami in the playoffs as well so that will only help us out even more here. People will be expected to see the high scoring continue because that is what they want to see but I expect the exact opposite here. Because of the recent high scoring, the linesmakers have been forced to adjust the total to accommodate the Over action and thus, we are seeing the highest total of this series so far. That presents a ton of value. San Antonio is 8-1 to the under this season after allowing 100 or more points in two straight games and while going 12-3 to the under this season after scoring 60 or more points in the first half. Miami has gone under the total in four straight home games while going 19-8 to the under in its last 27 games against winning teams. The Spurs also have a solid situation on their side for a low scoring game as we play the under where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points involving a team shooting 46 percent or better on the season going up against an opponent that allowed 55 percent or higher in its last game. This situation is 50-22 (69.4 percent) to the under the last five seasons. 10* Under (711) San Antonio Spurs/(712) Miami Heat

As mentioned in the Game Four analysis, playing the Zig Zag Theory over the last eight games with Miami would have provided you with a perfect 8-0 ATS record as the Heat have alternated ATS wins and losses since Game Two of the Indiana series. They extended that on Thursday with an easy winner making it nine straight Heat covers by laying the bounce. I think this streak finally comes to an end however as I believe Miami takes control of the series by winning Game Five and heading home in need of just one more win to defend its NBA title. LeBron promised a better game and he didn't disappoint as he scored a team high 33 points on 15-25 shooting as Miami shot 52.9 as team. The Heat won going away despite San Antonio taking 14 more free throws but it really came down to turnovers as the Spurs had 18 of them thanks to 13 Miami steals and it will be up to the Heat to continue that defensive pressure in what is still considered a must win game. Miami also didn't allow as many open looks from three-point range as it allowed just 16 attempts and while the Spurs did make half of those, limiting the attempts is the key. Miami found its rhythm in Game Four and that is bad news for San Antonio as the Heat are a team that can use that momentum in crunch time as we saw on Thursday. The Heat have had their struggles of late following wins which have aided in the Zig Zag success but they are now 15-6 ATS in their last 21 road games against teams with a winning home record while the Spurs fell to 2-6 ATS in their last eight home games against teams with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. Getting this one early could be big as the value is on the Heat at a pickem price. 10* (709) Miami Heat

Playing the Zig Zag Theory over the last eight games with Miami would have provided you with a perfect 8-0 ATS record as the Heat have alternated ATS wins and losses since Game Two of the Indiana series. This is a trend I don't prefer backing because you know it will not last but I think this situation is different in that we have to continue to ride it. The Heat were embarrassed on Tuesday at San Antonio as they lost by 36 points after putting up that identical number of points in the second half. While Miami did not play that well, the Spurs played over their heads with a tremendous 16-32 shooting display from long range. However it is very interesting to note that since the NBA Finals went to a 2-3-2 format in 1985, the Game Three winner when the series was tied 1-1 has gone on to win 12 of the 13 titles, though the Heat were the lone one that didn't, in 2011. Definitely some irony there. That was a big loss in terms of Miami trying to repeat as champions but it is far from done as five of the 12 teams that lost by 30-plus in an NBA Finals game went on to win the series (not counting series ending 30-point losses). I see Miami coming back big, just like it did against San Antonio after losing Game One and it has been solid in this situation for a while, going 14-3 ATS in its last 17 road games following a loss by 20 or more points. The injury to Tony Parker is a big one while the bounceback we will get from LeBron James will be the difference maker in evening up this series. 10* (707) Miami Heat

The first two games of this series went under the total with both closing totals being 189.5. Now the series shifts to San Antonio and we are catching a lower over/under to work with and it is the lowest total in the four meetings going back to the regular season. The Heats have now gone under the total in five straight games which makes this game a great situation to go the other way. The defense has led the way over this stretch as Miami has allowed just 84.4 ppg and the main reason has been limited opponents shots as it has forced opponents to shoot an average of 74.8 attempts per game. This is down significantly from its 80.9 attempts per game allowed during the regular season. San Antonio will have something to say about this on its home floor. The Spurs defense has limited the made shots over the last five games but they have allowed an average of 88.2 attempts per game over that span and more shot on offense from both sides means a potentially higher scoring game. I expect San Antonio to shoot the ball better than it did in Game Two as the big three of Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili went a combined 10-33 (30.3 percent) from the floor. The Spurs have gone over in five of their last six home games while going 5-2 to the over in their last seven games following a loss. Meanwhile Miami is 10-4-1 to the over in its last 15 games playing on one day rest. 10* Over (705) Miami Heat/(706) San Antonio Spurs

We won with the Spurs in Game One of the NBA Finals as they took the opener outright in Miami. It did not come as a surprise at all as San Antonio, despite losing the two regular season meetings, kept those games very close but now is the time Miami steps it up. The Heat can ill-afford to go down 2-0 in this series before hitting the road for three straight games at San Antonio so while the pressure may be on, this team has shown it can get it done when needed. The Heat are a perfect 4-0 straight up and ATS following a loss in the playoffs and all we need to do is look back at the Chicago series when Miami lost Game One at home only to go on and defeat the Bulls by 37 points in Game Two. Miami has not lost consecutive games since January, has not lost consecutive home games since June of 2011 and after losing a game at home this year, it has gone a perfect 6-0 straight up and ATS in its next home game. One player that will have a big game is LeBron James as despite posting a triple-double, he scored just 18 points which was his lowest output of the playoffs by far. Miami is 14-4 ATS this season revenging a loss and this is the biggest revenge game to date as going to San Antonio tied at 1-1 is not ideal but it is all that is left for the Heat at this point. 10* (704) Miami Heat

The question in Game One is whether the extra rest is going to hurt or help the Spurs. They have been off since May 27th after sweeping the Grizzlies which means a full 10 days off prior to the NBA Finals. We have to decipher if rust or rest will be the bigger factor and I believe that the latter is going to benefit San Antonio more. While this is now a team of veteran stars and upcoming young players, the added time off benefits everyone especially the older players after a very long season. Adding to that is the fact that Miami is coming off a hard fought series against Indiana that went the distance which will give San Antonio a big edge in not only rest but also with the letdown effect. Miami is the best team in the NBA and no one is denying that but the Pacers showed how certain matchups can take advantage against the Heat and San Antonio has those as well. Miami won both regular season meetings but they were decided by a combined seven points and expect this opener to show a similar type of game. Miami has shown the letdown effect in these playoffs as it is 0-5 ATS in its last five games following a win while the Spurs have been solid in these types of situations, going 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games against teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. Look for a very close game here with the Spurs having a legitimate shot at stealing the opener. 10* (701) San Antonio Spurs

Miami went cold in the third quarter of Game Six and even though it rallied from a 17-point deficit to cut the lead to four points but then a couple questionable calls pretty much put the game away. LeBron James finished with 29 points, going 10 of 21 from the field, but the Heat got next to nothing from Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh, who combined to score 15 points. Now it is on to Game Seven in the Eastern Conference Finals for Miami for the second straight season. Last year, the Heat rolled over Boston by 13 points and I expect a similar outcome here. Heading back home is obviously huge despite the recent road success for Miami as the Pacers are a different team on the highway, sitting five games under .500 for the entire season. The Heat recover well from setbacks as they are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss including a perfect 3-0 ATS in the playoffs with those wins coming by an average of 22 ppg. They also fall into an outstanding situation as we play on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are revenging a double-digit loss as a road favorite where team scored less than 85 points. This situation is 24-4 ATS (85.7 percent) since 1996. 10* (528) Miami Heat

Those playing the Zig Zag Theory have cleaned up in this series as playing against the winning team since the opener has yielded a perfect 4-0 ATS record. I believe that comes to an end tonight however as this is the game that the Heat can prove that they are the dominant team and avoid the ever-so-crazy Game Seven where anything can happen. Miami was able to pull away in Game Five thanks to a 30-13 third quarter with LeBron James again leading the way. He took off for 16 points and four assists in the third quarter to finish with 30 points overall in Game Five. For the last two seasons, Miami has had that killer instinct when sitting with three victories as it has closed out the series the next game and that trend will continue here. I give Indiana a lot of credit as it has shown that it can match up with the best team in the NBA but ultimately, it does not have enough to keep up. The Spurs have been off and rested for a while now and with Game Seven slated for Monday and the NBA Finals slated to start on Thursday, Miami wants to end this series now and gets its own rest. The Pacers have been solid coming off a loss but Miami is 18-8 ATS coming off a home win by 10 points or more this season and playing on the road is no issue as it is 21-6 ATS in its last 27 road games. 10* (523) Miami Heat

After another over in Game Four, the first four games of this series have now all gone over the total and while we got burnt the last game, we will come back with the under again tonight. Not only will we be going against the over streak but we are again catching a valued number as this is the highest total that has been posted thus far in this series. Going back to the second round of the playoffs, Miami has seen the over go 5-0 in its last five games while Indiana is on a similar streak with its last five games going over the total as well. I mentioned Indiana needed a strong defensive effort in Game Four and it got it as it held Miami to 39 percent shooting from the floor. While the Pacers shot 50 percent that game, the reason the game cleared the total was due to free throws as the teams combined for 60 attempts, making 50 of those. This has been the story of late as after making a combined 40 free throws in Game One, they have averaged just over 49 makes the last three games. I expect that to come down as these teams are averaging just a combined 36.2 makes per game on the season. Both teams fall into two solid situations. First, we play the under involving teams that have gone over the total in five straight games and are outscoring opponents by three or more ppg. This situation is 156-96 (61.9 percent) to the under since 1996. Additionally, we play the under where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points in a playoff series which is tied. This situation is 104-64 (61.9 percent) since 1996. 10* Under (519) Indiana Pacers/(520) Miami Heat

The first three games of this series have all gone over the total but I expect that to come to an end tonight. Not only will we be going against the over streak but we are catching a great number in doing so as this is the highest total that has been posted thus far so we are getting additional value on top of it. Going back to the second round of the playoffs, Miami has seen the over go 4-0 while Indiana is on a similar streak with its last four games going over the total as well. The Pacers need this game badly to avoid falling behind 3-1 in this series and the only way to do that is to do a better job on the defensive end. The Heat's five starters each scored in double figures for the first time this postseason and overall they shot 54.5 percent from the floor while their 70 points in the first half set a franchise playoff record for points in a half. Indiana is allowing an NBA best 42.2 percent shooting on defense so that last effort was an aberration. Miami continued its strong play of defense, allowing the Pacers to shoot just 39.7 percent from the floor and over its last five games, it is allowing just 40.7 percent shooting. 10* Under (515) Miami Heat/(516) Indiana Pacers

History is clearly not on the side of the Grizzlies as no team has ever come back from a 3-0 series deficit in the NBA Playoffs. As a matter of fact, only three teams have gone on to force a Game Seven but in this case, Memphis is not dead yet. It has in fact already spurned history this year as the Grizzlies became the first team in NBA Playoff history to lose the first two games of a series (against the Clippers) and then go on to win the next four games all by double digits. Obviously that doesn't have a lot to do with this game but this is a team with no quit and we will see another great effort from Memphis similar to the one that we saw at the start of Game Three. The Spurs didn't take their first lead until 15 seconds into the fourth quarter so they have to be given credit for not folding. The Spurs are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game while Memphis is a perfect 6-0 ATS in its last six games following an ATS loss. While the series may be out of reach, the Grizzlies extend it for one more game at least. 10* (514) Memphis Grizzlies

Indiana may look tasty as a home underdog here but let's not forget it is playing one of the best road teams we have ever seen and one that is coming off a bitter defeat. The Pacers handed the Heat what became their fourth loss in 50 games and now we are catching Miami where a win likely leads to a cover. It has won nine straight games on the road and going back further is 22-1 over its last 23 road games. The Pacers are no doubt a solid home team and they have shown they match up very well against Miami but this is where the best team in the NBA steps up. Miami will be out avoid what happened last year in this playoff series as it lost one of its two home games to the Pacers only to go on and get hammered in the first game in Indiana. The Heat also fall into a solid situation where we play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are coming off a loss as a home favorite, playing three or less games in 10 days. This situation is 25-6 ATS (80.6 percent) since 1996. 10* (511) Miami Heat

Due to unforeseen circumstances, I am unable to provide my normal in-depth analysis for Saturday's games. We won with Memphis in Game Two as the Grizzlies rallied from a late deficit to force overtime and secure the cover. That helps us here because of the outright loss as Memphis cannot afford to go down 3-0 in this series and desperation mode will be in play. The Grizzlies have been here before as they fell behind 0-2 against the Clippers only to bounce back to not only win and cover Game Three but to go on to win the next four games. That latter task will be difficult but heading home here will have them in great shape. The Grizzlies are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six home games while going a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a loss. Also, we play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points after having covered three of their last four against the spread, in a game involving two teams with winning percentages between .600 and .750. This situation is 51-27 ATS (65.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (510) Memphis Grizzlies

I played against Miami in its first half in Game One in the series against Chicago and it not only didn't cover the half but lost the game outright. The Heat went on to win the next four games to take the series but the last thing they want is to lose Game One again as the challenge to come back from that will be more difficult. Miami was off for over a week before taking on Chicago and it will have been off for a week leading up to this series and while rustiness can be attributed to the Game One loss against the Bulls, I feel they have learned from that mistake and will come out a much different team this time around. Indiana took care of New York in six games after taking out Atlanta in six games as well. The Pacers were 6-0 at home but their road woes continued as they went just 2-4 on the highway with all four of those losses coming by double-digits. This same comparison can be said about the season series as Indiana defeated Miami in the first two meetings but both of those games were at home and Miami was able to return the favor with a 14-point win in the third and final regular season meeting. I fully expect the Heat to come out as if this is an elimination game. The Pacers are 2-6 ATS in their last eight road games against teams with a winning home record and while Miami is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games following a win, it is 6-0 ATS in its last six games following an ATS loss. 10* (504) Miami Heat

The extended time off did not help Memphis as it came out rusty in the Game One of this series as it was outscored 31-14 and was never able to get back into the game. That was a bad call on our part but I certainly expect a much better effort in Game Two as the Grizzlies are only dealing with one day of rest and will be stoked to come out for some retribution. It was a surprise that Memphis did get blown out as bad as it did in Game One after three of the four regular season meeting against the Spurs were tight. Because of the severity of the loss, we are catching some additional value here and while that is good to have, I don't think the Grizzlies will even need it. We can chalk that game up an as anomaly considering it was Memphis' worst defeat since January and their third worst of the season. The difference was the hot shooting Spurs which nailed 14 three-pointers, the most Memphis has allowed all season long as well as five more than any other opponent in the playoffs. Additionally, the Spurs' 14 three-pointers marked a franchise playoff-record. As far as the Grizzlies offense, they shot just 43.2 percent while Zach Randolph had one of his worst games as he scored just two points on 1-8 shooting and his -28 +/- was easily the worst of any Memphis player. Expect a bog bounceback from him as well. We have two situations in our favor as well. First we play against home teams after two straight wins by 10 points or more against opponent after scoring 85 points or less. This situation is 40-17 ATS (70.2 percent) over the last five seasons. Second, we play on road teams that are outscoring their opponents by three or more ppg, after a loss by 15 points or more. This situation is 70-40 ATS (63.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (505) Memphis Grizzlies

Does Memphis have what it takes to make it to the NBA Finals? Not many gave the Grizzlies a chance in the first round against the Clippers after losing the first two games of the series only to go on and win the final four games. They then lost the first game in the second round against the Thunder only to go on and win the final four games there as well. I am expecting a different start in this series however as Memphis may not be able get away with early losses again but even so, a close game either way cashes a ticket for us. The home team won all four regular season meetings this year but three of the games were decided by four points or fewer including two in overtime which shows how the games, and the series, could go either way in this matchup as home court may not play as big of a factor as many believe. Fifth seeded Memphis would be the lowest-seeded team to reach the NBA Finals since the eighth-seeded Knicks in 1999, but this isn't a classic underdog pick. Since Tayshaun Prince the Grizzlies back on February 1st, the Grizzlies have the third best record in the Western Conference's, ahead of the Spurs. The Grizzlies are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games against teams with a winning record while going back further, they are 20-4 ATS in their last 24 games in the second half of the season against teams with a winning percentage of .700 or better. Meanwhile the Spurs are just 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games against teams with a winning record and they fall into a negative situation where we play against home teams that are revenging a loss of three points or less, off a road win by 10 points or more. This situation is 27-8 ATS (77.1 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (501) Memphis Grizzlies

The home team has won and covered the last four games in this series and all in very easy fashion as all four victories have been by double-digits. While many expected this to be a very good series, it has been anything but with the lopsided games but I think that changes tonight as the Knicks stave off elimination once again. New York, trailing 3-1 in this series, won Game Five at home to keep its playoff hopes alive and now it will have to win on the road in order to extend this series to the limit. The Knicks offense has been stymied in the two games at Indiana but its 25-21 road record this season shows they can win on the highway. This included a 2-1 record at Boston with the lone loss coming in overtime. With the season once again on the line, I expect the Knicks to finally solve some of the issues that plagued them in the first two games in Indiana. George Hill's status is still unknown for Game Six, so it's very possible the Knicks could continue to exploit the lack of depth Indiana has at the point as D.J. Augustin clearly was not the answer after finishing with no assists and the team turning it over 19 times. How important is Hill? With him on the court, the Pacers have outscored opponents by 61 points in the playoffs. When he's on the bench, Indy's been outscored by 37. Indiana is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games after allowing 90 points or less three straight games while the Knicks are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games against teams with a winning record. We finally get treated to a non-home blowout in this series. 10* (747) New York Knicks

You have to give the Warriors a lot of credit for what they have done in the playoffs so far. After losing the opening game in their series with Denver, they Warriors won four of the next five games to oust the third-seeded Nuggets. They then split two games in San Antonio and then evened up the series at two games apiece with a come-from-behind win in overtime in Game Four before losing Game Five. Now with their backs against the wall, the Warriors need to win tonight to extend the series but I do not see it happening. San Antonio's experience will prove to be too much and its coaching has made the correct adjustments over the last three games to shut down the potent Golden St. offense. The Spurs have a game to work with and Game Seven is at home should it go that far but they do not want to head home as anything can happen in a Game Seven. San Antonio has shut down Klay Thompson since he scored 34 points in Game Two and while the defense has been given credit for slowing down Stephen Curry, his ankle injury is clearly affecting him even though he is not using it as an excuse. History is clearly on the Spurs side as well as teams that have won Game Five of a best-of-seven series that was tied have gone on to win the series 88 out of 99 times and San Antonio alone is 11-1 in its last 12 series when leading 3-2. Granted not all of these have been won in Game Six but the confidence level is there. The Spurs have a great situation on their side as we play on road teams with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 coming off a home win by 10 points or more, playing a team with a winning percentage between .501 and .600. This situation is 51-23 ATS (68.9 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (741) San Antonio Spurs

Oklahoma City is on the brink of elimination so this is obviously a must win situation for the Thunder. Coming back from a 3-1 series deficit is not going to be easy for the Western Conference favorites and it makes it even more difficult with the absence of Russell Westbrook. The Thunder had a great shot to even up this series in Game Four but they lost in overtime and now back home, I expect them to respond in a big way. Memphis clearly has the momentum in its favor and it has covered all four games in this series thus far. While we may be losing value with the increased number, I feel it could be even higher in this situation. Realistically, the Thunder could have the 3-1 series edge right now but being unable to close in the second half has been the big liability which has put them in this hole. In each of the first three games of the series, the go-ahead bucket was scored in the final two minutes and then there was the overtime in Game Four. Memphis has outscored the Thunder 23-12 in the final 90 seconds and overtime in this series. Surprisingly, it has been Kevin Durant that has come up small over the last two games as he went a mere 3-17 in the fourth quarter and overtime in the two games played in Memphis. Superstars step up and lead their team and that is what I am expecting from Durant tonight. Despite the Game Two loss, Oklahoma City is still 37-9 at home and it is 11-3 ATS in 14 home games revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points this season. 10* (738) Oklahoma City Thunder

San Antonio had an opportunity to take a commanding lead in this series on Sunday but instead blew a late lead and eventually lost in overtime. Instead of a 3-1 edge, the Spurs are tied with Golden St. with pivotal Game Five ready to go a long way in deciding this series. A split in Oakland got the home floor back on the side of the Spurs and now they have to take advantage because the first two games of this series at home went the way of the visitors. The Warriors have clearly been the better team in San Antonio and this is something the Spurs need to reverse. The Warriors held leads of 18 and 20 points in the first two games respectively while holding the lead for 95 of the 106 minutes played at the AT&T Center. That is pretty bad for a team that that overall is 38-7 at home on the season and this is where the experience of the team will take over, just like it did in Game Three after being down two games to one. The offense needs to take over this game and I think that will be the case after a horrendous game as the Spurs shot 35.5 percent from the floor, were 7-27 from the three-point line and grabbed just 51 rebounds to Golden St.'s 65. After shooting just 39 percent in Game Two, San Antonio responded with a 51 percent effort in Game Three and I expect a similar rebound here. Only twice this year have the Spurs lost consecutive games when they played their normal starting lineup in both games. San Antonio is 19-8 ATS in its last 27 games coming off a loss as a favorite. 10* (734) San Antonio Spurs

It is becoming crunch time for the top seed in the Western Conference as the Thunder trail the Grizzlies 2-1 following a loss in Game Three on Saturday. With two more home games on tap if the series is stretched to seven games, this game isn't a must win contest but it is as close as you can get for Oklahoma City. Falling down 3-1 is certainly not ideal and a victory here puts the home court back in possession of the Thunder. Oklahoma City could not have had a worst game on offense in Game Three as it was 32-88 (36.4 percent) from the floor. They wasted a great game on the boards as the Thunder outrebounded Memphis 51-44 including 14-5 on the offensive end and they achieved their goal of winning the inside game as they outscored the Grizzlies 44-30 in the paint. The Thunder spent Sunday trying to regain confidence shooting the ball after their worst performance this postseason both shooting and scoring. I expect a huge bounceback and this is the type of situations where superstars take over and that is what we should see from Kevin Durant. The Thunder are now 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games against teams with a winning home record while going 17-8 ATS in their 25 games this season coming off a loss. Even though Memphis got the cover in Game Three, the road team is 8-2 ATS over the last 10 meetings in this series. 10* (729) Oklahoma City Thunder

Miami has taken control of this series after losing the opener at home so now it is up to Chicago to do it best to try an even this series as going down 3-1 and heading back to Miami is fatal. The Bulls were right in it in Game Three as they entered the final period tied with the Heat and were down by just two points with four minutes left but Miami ended the game on a 19-11 run which sealed the win and cover. Amazingly, the Heat are 21-1 in their last 22 road games, with the lone loss coming in Chicago, which snapped the team's 27-game wining streak in March. Therefore Chicago knows it can win here and that was proven on Friday as well despite the loss. I think the Miami offense takes a step back here and namely Norris Cole. He is the Heat's second-leading scorer in the series, at 14.8 ppg, shooting 50 percent from the field including going 8-8 on three-pointers. That will not last. The Bulls are 13-4 ATS coming off a home loss this season and they are 4-0 ATS in their last four games coming off a double-digit home loss. They fall into a great situation also as we play against road favorites with a winning percentage of .750 or better after having covered four of their last five against the spread, playing a team with a winning record. This situation is 59-22 ATS (72.8 percent) since 1996. 10* (728) Chicago Bulls

We won with the Spurs in Game Three as they finally looked like the better team in this series. After being underdogs then and opening as underdogs in this game, San Antonio is now the favorite and while I do not expect the line to even come in play, it is a good buffer should the game be closer than I anticipate. On Friday, San Antonio outshot Golden State 50.6 percent to 39.3 percent as Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson were held in check, though the Spurs didn't feel like they defended any differently. That means it was just an off-shooting night with the opportunity to get it back this afternoon. Golden St. had won both home meetings against San Antonio prior to Game Three so it knows it can easily bounce back and even up this series before heading back to San Antonio. The Warriors know a loss here could be devastating. The big story here is the health of Stephen Curry who hurt his left ankle in Game Three and is considered a gametime decision today. The quick turnaround time between games does not help as Sunday's game starts about 38 hours from the end of Friday night's game but with the series on the line, there is hardly no chance he does not go today and he will be fine. Golden St. is 25-13 ATS following a loss this season while going a perfect 6-0 ATS in its last six games following a double-digit home loss. Additionally, the Warriors are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games against teams with a winning record while the Spurs are just 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games following a win. 10* (726) Golden St. Warriors

We won with the Spurs last night and this game sets up very similar. Memphis blew a big lead in Game One but came back to win the second game which is exactly what Golden St. did against San Antonio. Now it is up to Oklahoma City to hit the road and dig deep to try and get its home court advantage back. The loss of Russell Westbrook is certainly evident for the Thunder but that is not where the problem was for Oklahoma City in Game Two as 50 of the Grizzlies 99 points came in the paint, a dominating effort by the interior of Memphis. They made just 12 of their other 43 shots, but managed a 50-30 advantage in the paint. Part of the problem for the Thunder was settling for jump shots as they took only 17 shots inside the paint and they need to increase that. Additionally, the key to this game could be Kevin Martin who played a huge role in Game One with 25 points but came back with just six points in Game Two on 2-11 shooting. In two games against Memphis, the Thunder's starting lineup has scored only 64.7 points per 100 possessions which is horrid. The Thunder find themselves in a difficult situation in trying to win in Memphis where the Grizzlies have won 17 of their last 18 games but the thing is for us, we do not even need the outright win as we are catching a very favorable line. Oklahoma City is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 road games against teams allowing 91 or fewer ppg while going 15-5 ATS in its 20 games this season coming off a loss as a favorite. 10* (721) Oklahoma City Thunder

This series has clearly been dominated by Golden St. thus far as if not for a meltdown in the final four minutes of Game One, the Warriors would have a commanding 2-0 lead. They have held leads of 18 and 20 points in the first two games respectively while holding the lead for 95 of the 106 minutes played, and now that the series shifts west to Oakland, it would seem that Golden St. has a big edge. This is a huge game for the Spurs as not only do they need a win to recapture home court advantage, they need to start playing better and I feel the veteran aspect of this team gets it done. San Antonio knows it cannot continue to play the way it has and expect to win this series and this is where its experience needs to take over. The Spurs have been here before while this is just the second postseason for Golden St. in the last 19 years and that is significant in a pivotal Game Three in my opinion. The Warriors took care of Denver in all three games played on their home floor but two of those could have gone either way and for this game when talking value, it is on the Spurs side. We are seeing a 9.5-point line shift from Game Two which is too much of an overadjustment. San Antonio is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 games coming off a home loss while going 14-4 ATS in its last 18 games revenging a home loss. Additionally, the Spurs fall into a great situation where we play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are coming off a loss as a home favorite, playing three or less games in 10 days. This situation is 24-6 ATS (80 percent) since 1996. 10* (719) San Antonio Spurs

Golden St. let a huge win slip away in the opener of this series as it blew a 16-points lead with less than four minutes remaining and eventually lost in double overtime. The Warriors proved they can play with the elite after taking out Denver and taking the Spurs to the wire in this series opener and now it comes down to how they will respond. They can be a deflated bunch and not even show up or they can learn from that game and come out knowing they can win and take control of the home court with a victory tonight. I expect it will be the latter. Golden St. won three straight in the opening round after dropping the series opener to Denver and in this case, they know they were the better team for the majority of Game One in this series. Stephen Curry was masterful once again as he scored 44 points including going 6-14 from long range. The Spurs were able to defend him better late in the game after Klay Thompson fouled out and that really hurt Golden St. down the stretch. We are getting less value in Game Two but it is for good reason. The Warriors are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games against teams with a winning percentage above .600 while San Antonio is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games against teams with a winning record. Additionally, the Warriors are 19-9 ATS in their last 28 games as a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 points while the Spurs are 9-21 ATS in their 30 games this season against teams that are making 36 percent or more of their three-point attempts. 10* (715) Golden St. Warriors

The Knicks are coming off a poor performance in Game One as they shot just 43.2 percent from the floor and despite scoring 27 points, Carmelo Anthony was just 10-28 from the floor. New York desperately needs to even up this series before going to Indiana as it has already lost home court advantage and cannot afford to go down 2-0 in this series. After getting blown out twice in Atlanta in its first two road playoff games, the Pacers have now won two in a row on the highway but making in three straight will be a challenge as they are still two games under .500 on the road for the season. Their defense has been great the last two games and the offense came to life as well as they shot 48.7 percent from the floor in Game One and had a big edge down low. The home team had won all four regular season meetings, including three by double-digits, and the Knicks won both meetings at home by 12 and 10 points. New York is 12-4 ATS this season revenging a loss where its opponent scored 100 or more points and despite the Sunday loss, it is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games against teams with a winning record. Indiana is 7-15 ATS in 22 road games this season against teams with a winning record and the Knicks fall into a great situation where we play against road underdogs between 3.5 and 9.5 points after covering three of their last four games in a game involving two teams with winning percentages between .600 and .750. This situation is 49-26 ATS (65.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (710) New York Knicks

The home team has absolutely dominated this series with all five hosts winning by double-digits. Going back to the regular season, the home team has won all nine meetings but with that being said, I feel it comes to an end here. The Pacers are the better team in this matchup but they have been far from strong in Atlanta where they have now lost 13 straight meetings. That would make a win here seem bleak and even though the series is on the line for the Hawks, I think Indiana comes in with more energy. This may be the last time the Pacers have a home-court edge in the playoffs so for nothing else, they have to learn to win on the road or they will not be advancing past the next round. Indiana is coming off its best defensive game of the series as it allowed just 33.3 percent shooting from the floor including just 21.4 percent from long range and that has been the strength of this team all season. The Pacers need to keep that rolling and while they have not kept things close in the two games in Atlanta, they have allowed just 43.6 percent shooting in those games. It is the offense that has let them down as it has shot just 32.7 percent in the tow losses. One big factor in favor of the Pacers is free throw shooting as they are hitting 80.1 percent in the series compared to just 65 percent for the Hawks while outscoring them by an average of close to seven ppg from the charity stripe. Indiana falls into a great situation where we play against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are revenging a loss of 20 points or more, off a road loss by 10 points or more. This situation is 30-9 ATS (76.9 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (547) Indiana Pacers

It is crunch time for both teams tonight. Brooklyn is coming off a win in Game Five to extend the series but still needs to win the last two to take it. The Bulls meanwhile are up 3-2 but are in need of a win here to avoid going back to Brooklyn for Game Seven. With so much on the line, we should expect a game being played where each possession is critical and that will lead to a low scoring affair. The last two games of this series have gone over and we are now seeing a total that is seven points higher than it was in Game Four and 3.5 to 4 points higher than it was in Game Five which is providing excellent value. Injuries remain a big issue on both sides as the injury list is long both ways and that hurts the chemistry of the offenses more than anything. The big one for Chicago is the absence of Kirk Hinrich who is listed as doubtful with a calf injury. He has averaged 14.3 ppg over the last three games he has played in this series before sitting out Game Five. The Bulls defense has responded very well following a poor effort as they are 17-4 to the under in their last 21 games revenging a road loss of 10 or more points. Brooklyn meanwhile is 25-12 to the under in its last 37 road games after playing a game at home and more recently it is 20-9 to the under in its last 29 games playing on two days rest. With the last two games easily going over the number, expect the opposite tonight in what will be a low scoring affair. 10* Under (539) Brooklyn Nets/(540) Chicago Bulls

Houston has made two huge comebacks in the last two games to keep the series alive and interesting. The Rockets fought back from a 26-point deficit in Game Three but still ended up losing. In Game Four, they came back from a 13-point deficit and were able to hold on to extend the series as the teams head back to Oklahoma City. Houston has kept games close since getting blown out in Game One but I am expecting the Thunder to regain control and end it tonight with a big win. Obviously the loss of Russell Westbrook is huge for the Thunder and this will be the first game back home without him and the home court edge will be a significant difference in picking the whole team up. Without Westbrook, the Thunder have been far less effective on the fast break, scoring just 15 points in the last two games after totaling 45 in the first two. But again, the venue has played a big part in that. Losses have been far and far between for Oklahoma City this season and consecutive losses have been more rare as it is 18-4 following its first 22 losses including going 17-5 ATS in those games. The Thunder have dominated good teams on their home floor as they are 17-6 ATS in 23 home games against teams with a winning record. Oklahoma City was favored by double-digits in the first two games at home in this series and the line has come down a decent amount due to the Westbrook injury and I feel there is definitely value to be had. The Thunder have covered six of the last eight home meetings with Houston and they are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 home games against teams with a road winning percentage of less than .400. 10* (536) Oklahoma City Thunder

We won with Atlanta on Saturday as the Hawks overcame two losses in Indiana to get back in the series. One of the big reasons for that play on the Hawks was they arguably played better in both games in Indiana as they outshot the Pacers but were killed on the boards and outscored substantially at the free throw line. In Game Three, Atlanta again outshot the Pacers but were still outrebounded and outscored from the charity stripe. The Hawks took advantage of Indiana shooting only 27.2 percent from the floor including a mere 16 percent from long range on 4-25 shooting. I expect the Pacers to bounce back in a big way here and despite not having won in Atlanta in 12 straight meetings, they break that streak and take control of this series before heading back home. Indiana matched the lowest-scoring first half in the franchise's playoff history as it scored just 30 points and that alone is motivation enough to come out strong on Monday. After being the more aggressive team in the first two games of this series, the Pacers felt they gave that away on Saturday and if they can establish themselves in that regard once again, Atlanta cannot match up. The Pacers are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games coming off a double-digit loss while the Hawks are 1-5 ATS in their last six games coming off a double-digit win. Additionally, Atlanta is 1-12 ATS in 13 home games this season coming off a home win while the Pacers fall into a great situation as we play on road teams that are coming off a road loss scoring less than 80 points, playing six or less games in 14 days. This situation is 27-10 ATS (73 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (517) Indiana Pacers

Denver is now in a must win situation as it needs to even up this series before heading back home. We played on the Nuggets in Game Three and despite another hot shooting performance from Golden St., they nearly pulled out the victory. Give credit to the Warriors for playing two great games without the services of David Lee who was lost for the remainder of the season after getting injured in Game One. I do not expect them to continue on their torrid shooting pace however and it will be up to Denver to play a better second half here. The Nuggets shot just 39 percent, after taking a 12-point lead to the locker room, while the Warriors shot 53.7 in the final two quarters in Game Three. How big is this game for the Nuggets? In 438 best-of-seven NBA series, only eight times has a team gone down 3-1 and come back to eventually win the series. The Nuggets are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games against teams with a winning record while Golden St. is 8-18 ATS in its 26 games this season following two or more consecutive wins. Denver falls into a solid situation as we play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 after a road game where both teams score 100 or more points, and playing six or less games in 14 days. This situation is 34-10 ATS (77.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (515) Denver Nuggets

Despite outshooting Indiana both games of this series, the Hawks find themselves down 2-0 after losses by a combined 32 points. Atlanta has outshot the Pacers 49.6 percent to 46.1 percent overall so it hasn't been playing poorly but it has been on the wrong side of the home calls for sure. The difference was rebounding and free throw shooting as Atlanta was outboarded 48-32 including 15-6 on the offensive end while getting outscored at the charity stripe 30-7 in Game One. In Game Two, it was outrebounded 47-41 including 15-11 on the offense end while getting outscored at the free throw line 21-11. Those two categories were the ultimate difference between a close game and a blowout in both of those games and a possible outright Hawks win either time and a series split. A return home should be able to cure things for the Hawks as they are in must win mode and know they cannot let another one slip away. Indiana has lost its last 11 games at Philips Arena including both meetings this season. The Pacers are just 19-21 on the road and they have not even played on the road in nearly two weeks as their last road game of the season at Boston was postponed. Indiana is 5-13 ATS this season in road games against teams with a winning record while going 3-13 ATS in its last 16 games after two straight wins by 15 or more points. Atlanta meanwhile is 5-2 ATS in its last seven home games after being away from home for seven or more days and it is 30-13 ATS in its last 43 games after failing to cover five or six of their last seven games against the spread. 10* (506) Atlanta Hawks

The first two games of this series have gone under the total and by a wide margin for that matter. Game One went under by 26.5 points while Game Two went under the total by 27.5 points. This is creating exceptional value going the other way as tonight's total is 6.5 points less than the Game One Total and 2.5 points less than the Game Two total. This is the lowest over/under in this series since the final game of last season when the posted total was 182.5 and the teams combined for 228 points. Going back to the regular season, the under has come in five straight meetings although two of those would have gone over if being played with tonight's total. I am expecting Boston to play a lot better offensively on its home floor following rough performances in New York the first two games. The 23 points the Celtics scored in the second half of Game Two was the fewest in the team's playoff history and the 25 points scored in the second half of Game One was not much better. The Knicks have limited Boston to 39.2 percent shooting on their home court but New York is clearly not the same team defensively on the road, allowing 46.3 percent shooting this season. Additionally, Boston is much better at home, shooting 47.7 percent from the floor which is sixth highest in the NBA. We play the over involving teams after a win by 15 points or more against opponent after scoring 80 points or less two straight games. This situation is 46-20 (69.7 percent) to the over since 1996. Also, Boston is 10-4 to the over in its last 14 games after scoring 75 points or fewer in its last game. 10* Over (739) New York Knicks/(740) Boston Celtics

Miami is clearly the dominant team here and no one didn't say it wasn't going into this series. The Heat are coming off two double-digit wins at home to take a 2-0 series lead and now it shifts to Milwaukee in what is a must win game for the Bucks. Milwaukee played a great game in Miami and they were in it until the Heat pulled away in the fourth quarter but the Bucks hung on for the cover. They outshot Miami 50 percent to 45 percent but Miami benefitted from the home court as it got the call and outscored the Bucks 22-10 from the free throw line which was the ultimate difference. As mentioned before Game Two, the Bucks needed offensive support from players other than Monta Ellis and Brandon Jennings. Ellis and Jennings combined for 48 points in Game One, and while they indeed got support from others in Game Two, Ellis and Jennings had just 15 combined points on Tuesday night. This is a game that everyone needs to step up to avoid the insurmountable 0-3 series deficit. Miami has won 66 percent of its games as a road favorite but it has covered only 51 percent of those games showing how much it has been overvalued in such situations. The Heat have controlled this season series because of big runs and Milwaukee has to avoid that here. In the two meetings at home, the Bucks won once and were close in the other so the home floor will be a big edge tonight. The Bucks are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 home games following a road trip of seven or more days while Miami is 7-19 ATS in its last 26 road games after covering eight or more of their last 10 against the spread. 10* (734) Milwaukee Bucks

We played on Atlanta on Sunday and the Hawks went down despite outshooting Indiana 50 percent to 44.9 percent from the floor. The difference was rebounding and free throw shooting as Atlanta was outboarded 48-32 including 15-6 on the offensive end while getting outscored at the charity stripe 30-7. Those two categories were the ultimate difference between a close game and a blowout and a possible outright Hawks win. Head coach Larry Drew called his team out for being soft despite coming out and saying that the game was not called in their favor. With two days in-between games, the Hawks have had a chance to refocus and be more physical here to try and grab a split which would bring the home court edge back to Atlanta. Drew was more upset that his team didn't play through the calls and got beat up inside and out. It is imperative that the Hawks match the Pacers intensity. We have seen zero change in the line from Game One to Game Two and that is in our favor here based on the bounce angle as a team that loses usually sees the line go the reverse way so I feel we are on the value side here. Despite being on a four-game, non-cover streak, the Hawks are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games following a double-digit loss while going 18-7 ATS in their last 25 road games revenging a double-digit loss. Additionally, Atlanta is 30-12 ATS in its last 42 games after failing to cover five or six of its last seven games against the spread. Meanwhile the Pacers are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games following a double-digit victory while going just 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games following an ATS win. 10* (729) Atlanta Hawks

The Nuggets definitely got away with one in the first game of this series as Andre Miller drove for a layup with 1.3 seconds left to lift Denver to the Game One victory. That opening game scare will provide the Nuggets with a bigger sense of urgency here as they were taken to the brink in Game One and know they cannot afford to let that happen again. Golden St. nearly pulled off the upset that not many teams have been able to accomplish this season and that is winning in Denver where the Nuggets are now an insane 39-3 on the season. And now Golden St. is at an even bigger disadvantage in Game Two as David Lee was lost for the remainder of the postseason because of a torn right hip flexor while the Nuggets will have some fresh legs returning to the lineup as Kenneth Faried expects to play after sitting out the first game with a sprained left ankle. That is a huge replacement for both sides and Denver has to take advantage. The Warriors enjoyed a rebounding advantage in Game One, in large part because of Andrew Bogut and Lee's 14 rebounds apiece. So rebounding now certainly becomes an issue. Also, the Warriors won't be able to run the high pick and roll with Stephen Curry and Lee which became one of their go-to plays. The Warriors are 2-10 ATS in 12 games this season after consecutive covers while Denver 11-2 ATS this season after failing to cover four or five of its last six games against the spread and it falls into a great situation where we play on favorites that have won 20 or more of their last 25 games with a winning percentage between .600 and .750. This situation is 63-35 ATS (64.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (726) Denver Nuggets

Home court was certainly vital during the first set of games as the host won all eight Game One matchups while covering at least six of those and possibly seven depending upon the line from the Knicks game. The home teams are supposed to win obviously but winning and covering goes right into the hands of the public better as they cleaned up this weekend. We have seen the zig zag theory go the other way in recent years in the NBA Playoffs as linesmakers and even the law of averages have turned this once profitable theory into a bust. The situations though cannot be overlooked and opportunities to go with it will still come into play. While that may not trigger a complete comeback that was so lucrative a couple decades back, it does show that playing these in the right spots can give positive results. We come across our first one tonight. The Bulls trailed by as many as 28 points in Game One against Brooklyn and never led so they will be out for a not only a better performance, but a way to tie this series up. The stout defense was dreadful as they allowed the Nets to shoot 55.8 percent from the floor while they were outscored in the paint 56-36. The Nets averaged only 87.5 ppg in four games against Chicago during the regular season, losing three of four so we can stamp Saturday's performance as an aberration. We can also count on the home floor not being as electric as it was in Game One as it was Brooklyn's first meaningful postseason game since the 1956 World Series. Chicago falls into a solid bounceback situation as we play on road teams in a game involving two teams that are shooting between 33 and 36.5 percent from three-point range, after a game allowing a shooting percentage of 55 percent or higher. This situation is 55-28 ATS (66.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (717) Chicago Bulls

If you had known this would be a first round series at the beginning of the season, there would have been a lot of excitement but it has certainly lost its luster now. The Lakers stumbled this season and getting into the playoffs was far from guaranteed until a late season push got them in and into the seventh spot no less. Still, not many gave Los Angeles a lot of hope and with the loss of Kobe Bryant, those chances got even smaller. Give the Lakers credit though for coming together and winning their final five games of the regular season to bring at least some momentum into the postseason. The Spurs lack that momentum as they lost their last three games of the regular season including an embarrassing home loss against Minnesota in the season finale. Something says this team steps it up now though and San Antonio knows that this first game is extremely important. The Spurs are 35-6 at home and with the endings to the regular season of both teams, there is value in this number. San Antonio was a 3.5-point favorite in the last meeting in Los Angeles on April 14th and now it is favored by just 8.5-points at home after being favored by 13.5-points in the last home meeting. The Lakers are 0-9 ATS in their nine games this season following two or more consecutive covers while the Spurs are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games coming off a home loss. San Antonio falls into a great situation as well as we play on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are averaging 102 or more ppg against teams allowing between 98 and 102 ppg, after allowing 105 points or more two straight games. This situation is 62-32 ATS (66 percent) since 1996. 10* (712) San Antonio Spurs

A loss against Toronto ended the Hawks chances of getting the fifth seed in the Eastern Conference but it is becoming more likely they let that game go on purpose. It moved them down to the sixth spot so they had to face Indiana instead of Brooklyn (it mattered none since Atlanta split the season series with both), but more importantly, it avoided the possibility of playing Miami in the second round should it escape the first round. The Hawks ended up losing their last two games to end the regular season but that is not a huge concern considering that the Pacers closed the regular season with three straight losses. Additionally, Indiana is just 1-5 over its last six games with the ;one victory coming against lowly Cleveland by only five points. Indiana heads into the postseason with the league's best defensive field goal percentage at 42.0 percent, best defensive three-point percentage at 32.7 percent and the league's second-best scoring defense at 90.7 ppg. If the Hawks can score in transition, it mitigates one of Indiana's biggest strengths which is that tough defense. One key concern for Indiana is the health of point guard George Hill who sat out the end of practices Friday and Saturday with a left groin injury so he is not close to 100 percent. The Pacers are just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games against teams with a winning record while the Hawks are 6-2 ATS in their last eight road games. 10* (709) Atlanta Hawks

Playoff basketball in Los Angeles is an annual tradition but it is a little different this season. While the Lakers are in, barely, it is the Clippers that are the talk of the town this year and for good reason. They get to open this year on their home floor and it comes against a familiar opponent as the Clippers and Grizzlies meet in the first round of the Western Conference playoffs for the second consecutive season. A year after the Clippers' seven-game victory over Memphis, the Grizzlies have a chance at some revenge but the first game edge goes to Los Angeles with its 32-9 home record heading in. The Clippers have the experience as well as knowing that a loss here could mean a series loss as that is exactly what they did to Memphis last season, winning Game One on the road and eventually winning the series in seven games. The pace of the game will be a big factor in this outcome. The Grizzlies are averaging the second slowest pace in the NBA and while the Clippers are just 19th in pace, they are going to try and push it more on their home floor. While Memphis has one of the best half-court defenses in the league, it's vulnerable in transition against the Clippers

A lot of credit has to given to the Lakers for its late season push into the playoffs, most notably their last game. After losing Kobe Bryant for the season after tearing an Achilles and also playing without Steve Nash, Los Angeles came together as a team and defeated the Spurs on Sunday for its fourth straight win and seventh win in its last eight games. The Lakers are a game ahead of the Jazz for the eighth and final playoff spot in the Western Conference and could move up to seventh place with a victory over the Rockets. While they control their own destiny, the Lakers will also get into the playoffs with a Utah loss at Memphis tonight which they will likely know prior to the start of this game. Conversely, a Jazz win and Los Angeles knows it has to win. Houston is coming off a devastating loss against the Suns on Monday and it know it has to bounce back here. A loss means the Rockets fall into the eighth spot and a first round matchup against Oklahoma City but a victory here coupled with a Golden St. loss puts them up into the sixth seed. Either way, the first round matchup will be difficult but Houston does not want to enter the playoffs riding a two-game losing streak. Coming off that win over the Spurs, I do not see the Lakers putting together another strong performance and they fall into a negative situation where we play against home teams that are playing with double revenge against opponent off an upset loss as a road favorite. This situation is 76-35 ATS (68.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (529) Houston Rockets

The Hawks are one of the few teams remaining in the NBA that still has something to play for. They are in pursuit of the fifth seed in the Eastern Conference and while Atlanta does not hold the tiebreaker against the Bulls because of two losses in three games during the season series, it will lock it up if it can win tonight and then tomorrow at New York which is very likely considering that the Knicks will again be resting starters. Atlanta has won two straight games following a three-game skid and while getting the fifth -seed is priority and avoiding Indiana in the first round, heading into the playoffs on a winning streak is just as important. The Raptors have been playing some of their best basketball as they have won three straight games and five of their last six. Still, Toronto is just 12-28 on the highway and with a game left at home against Boston tomorrow, I expect a peek ahead to that home finale. The Raptors will be out to avoid the series sweep but after getting crushed at home against the Hawks just over two weeks ago, I don't see it happening. The Raptors are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games against teams with a winning record while Atlanta is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games after allowing 100 or more points in its previous game. The Hawks also fall into a solid situation as we play on teams in the second half of the season that are allowing between 92 and 98 ppg going up against teams allowing between 98 and 102 ppg, after a combined score of 205 points or more in two straight games. This situation is 115-65 ATS (64 percent) since 1996. 10* (702) Atlanta Hawks

Brooklyn is coming off a loss on Sunday against Toronto which snapped a four-game winning streak and ended any chance of moving up in the standings. Despite being two games back with two to go, the Nets can't catch Indiana for the third seed, which owns the tiebreaker as a division winner. With nothing left to play for, it is all about rest now for Brooklyn which hopes to head into the playoffs rested and healthy. Nets head coach P.J. Carlesimo said his staff will discuss resting players over the final two games. Gerald Wallace is definitely out while Deron William and/or Joe Johnson could sit tonight. Washington meanwhile has lost four straight games and the goal is to try and salvage something at the end of the season following a pretty solid mid-season run. "It's very disappointing," Garrett Temple said. " We have two more games left and we definitely want to get to 30 wins." Motivation will be a big factor here and we are getting a very solid number on the team that should come in as the more motivated team. The Nets are 17-35-2 ATS in their last 54 home games against teams with a losing road record while Washington is 33-16-2 ATS in its last 51 games against teams with a winning record while going 13-4 ATS this season against teams with a winning percentage between .501 and .600. 10* (507) Washington Wizards

I played against Phoenix on Wednesday following three straight close losses but instead of folding, the Suns went into Dallas and defeated the Mavericks which ended the latter's playoff hopes. Despite having the worst record in the Western Conference, Phoenix continues to play hard on a nightly basis and at this point of the season, we will continue to see that with just three games remaining. Feasibly, with games left against Houston and Denver, this is the final winnable game on the schedule and the players likely understand that. On top of that, they will be out for some payback after losing by 31 points at home in the last meeting against the Timberwolves last month. Minnesota is coming off a loss last night at Utah which was its third straight loss, all of which came on the road. A return home is certainly ideal but this is the fourth game in five nights for the Timberwolves and at this stage of the season, it is a tough situation. Timberwolves center Nikola Pekovic, who missed Friday's game against the Jazz with a left calf contusion, is questionable here and his absence could be huge as he is averaging 18.4 ppg on 62.3 percent shooting in the last five meetings with Phoenix. Minnesota is just 8-19 ATS in its last 27 games as a favorite between 3.5 and 9.5 points while going 6-14-1 ATS in its last 21 games following an ATS win. The Suns meanwhile have prospered here, going 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings in Minnesota with the road team going 13-3 ATS over the last 16 meetings. 10* (507) Phoenix Suns

This is a big game for seeding on both sides. Indiana can clinch the third seed in the Eastern Conference with a victory here while Brooklyn is the one team that is chasing the Pacers so the Nets need the win to try and remain alive for that third seed. I feel there is a lot of value on the home team here based on what is at stake and their 30-9 record at home. While Indiana guns for the third seed, moving up to the second seed is still a possibility as it trails the Knicks by two games with a meeting in New York coming up on Sunday. In order for that to still be a possibility, the Pacers have to win here or that game becomes meaningless. The Nets have won three straight games including an upset win at Boston last time out which makes this situation that much more difficult. Even with that victory, the Nets are just 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games against teams with a winning record. These teams played here two months ago and the Pacers were favored by nine points so the line has come down considerably. Indiana lost that game as well as the first meeting in Brooklyn so it has some added motivation of avoiding the season series sweep. The Pacers fall into a fantastic revenge situation as we play on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are playing with double revenge against opponent off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog. This situation is 44-17 ATS (72.1 percent) since 1996. 10* (702) Indiana Pacers

The Knicks remain the hottest team in the NBA as they have won 13 straight games and their win over Washington on Tuesday clinched their first Atlantic Division title in nearly two decades. The goal now is to keep the space between them and the Pacers for second place in the Eastern Conference which would mean avoiding Miami until the Eastern Conference Finals. That is a big deal for sure but the Bulls have some important things to deal with as well. Keeping a hold onto fifth place is a must so they avoid Indiana in the first round of the playoffs and right now they are tied with the Hawks for that spot. It has not been a good run as the Bulls are 14-18 since the start of February and have lost their last two games to Detroit and Toronto and Chicago's last five losses have come against teams with losing records. The Chicago frontcourt injuries are certainly a concern but tonight they are negated as the Knicks will be without big men Tyson Chandler and Kenyon Martin on Thursday. The Bulls are 24-10 this season following a loss and going back to last season, it is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 games coming off a loss as a home favorite. The Bulls fall into a solid contrarian situation where we play on home underdogs after failing to cover four of their last five games against the spread going up against an opponent that has covered six or seven of its last eight games against the spread. This situation is 37-7 ATS (84.1 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (502) Chicago Bulls

Two disappointing seasons are about to come to an end as Detroit and Cleveland wrap up their seasons. After dropping 10 straight games, the Cavaliers won two in a row before falling in Indiana last night. Despite the loss, they played very well but they blew a 20-point lead by getting outscored by 25 points in the fourth quarter. That is a tough loss to take but I expect a bounceback here as they will be out to avoid a season series sweep against Detroit after dropping the first three games. Cleveland has struggled against the Western Conference, going 11-18-1 ATS but in its own conference it is a solid 29-18 ATS. Detroit is coming off a home win against Chicago in its last game on Sunday but winning consecutive games have been few and far between for the Pistons. They have not done so since early February and they are 0-5 over their last five games following a victory. Additionally, the Pistons are 11-30 ATS in their last 41 games following a win of more than 10 points while the Cavaliers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven home games against teams with a road winning percentage of less than .400. While Detroit has dominated with five straight wins in this series, it has been favored in all of those and the favorite is 21-7 ATS in the last 28 meetings in this series. 10* (706) Cleveland Cavaliers

Golden St. had an opportunity to clinch a playoff berth in its last game but lost against Utah at home on Sunday. The Warriors are still in line to grab that playoff spot as well as keeping hold on sixth place in the Western Conference and this is the game they know they need to take care of business in. With the next three games being against the Thunder, Lakers and Spurs, they cannot slip up here and somehow have the season possibly come down to the final game of the season at Portland. Golden St. is 26-12 at home and it has lost consecutive home games only once all season long as it is 10-1 straight up and 8-3 ATS in its 11 home games following a loss in its previous home game. Additionally, the Warriors are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a loss. The Timberwolves have been playing much better of late as they have won three of their last four games and are a respectable 6-4 over their last 10 games. They are coming off a win against Detroit last time out as they reached the final goal of the season which was getting head coach Rick Adelman his 1,000th career victory. After losing nine straight road games, Minnesota has won its last three games on the highway but that streaks ends tonight in what is a pretty significant letdown situation. Minnesota is 5-15-1 ATS in its last 21 games following a win and just 3-10-1 ATS in its last 14 road games against teams with a winning home record. 10* (668) Golden St. Warriors

Dallas is clinging to a little hope for the playoffs as it trails Utah by two and a half games and Los Angeles by three games and will have to pass both in order to get in. The Mavericks are coming off an impressive win at Sacramento last time out and it was impressive in the fact that they were able to overcome a devastating loss in Denver the previous night. These must win games are tricky when it comes to the betting window as the lines are adjusted because of the must win situation. Case in point right here where Dallas was getting a point and a half from the Kings and is now favored by 3.5 points. That is a significant overadjustment. Of course part of that has to do with Portland's recent struggles as they have dropped back-to-back games by 18 points apiece which makes this a good time to back the Blazers. Teams that have been eliminated from the playoffs are just out to end the season but there is still the pride factor and getting blown out in consecutive games is something that teams strive to recover from, no matter the situation. The Mavericks are just 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a win while the Blazers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six home games against teams with a road winning percentage of less than .400. 10* (518) Portland Trailblazers

The Pacers have yet to clinch the division as they had a shot to lock up the Central Division last night but ended up getting hammered at home against the Thunder. Indiana however has been very solid in the situations at hand tonight as it is 19-8 straight up and against the number following a loss while going 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games following a double-digit loss. The Pacers have clearly been a better team at home than on the road, even though that did not show last night, but they have fared very well against the teams they should take care of as they are 12-3 straight up and 11-4 ATS as a chalk on the highway. Washington looks to avoid the season series sweep while trying to break a nine-game losing skid in this series and while it has been playing very well at home, there is a lot more at stake on the other side. Indiana put up just 75 points last night, its lowest output in over three months, while shooting a season low 9.5 percent from long range and after scoring just eight fourth quarter points, they will be extremely hungry to get the offense going again. Indiana is 13-4 ATS this season as a favorite of fewer than five points and it gets the job done tonight following last night's collapse. 10* (801) Indiana Pacers

Golden St. has won two straight and four of its last five games to inch closer to a playoff spot in the Western Conference. The Warriors currently hold down the sixth spot and while they will have to keep on winning to avoid dropping down, this is not the ideal spot. They are coming off a five-game homestand where they are now 26-11 but the road has not been as good as Golden St. is just 17-21 on the highway and this line is a little out of control. This is by far the most the Warriors have had to lay on the road as the previous high this season was 4.5 points at Charlotte way back in December. Additionally, Golden St. was favored by 8.5 points in the last meeting at home against Phoenix and now it is laying nearly as much on the road. The Suns are no doubt struggling as they have lost seven straight games as well as 13 of 15 which includes five straight losses at home. We are not asking them to win here though which is why we are catching a ton of value. In the last five games that the Suns have gotten at least four points at home, they are 4-1 ATS. While the defense has been an issue, the Suns are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game. Golden St. meanwhile is just 3-10 ATS in its last 13 road games while going 0-9 ATS in road games after successfully covering the spread in two or more consecutive games this season. 10* (522) Phoenix Suns

The situation is not a good one for the Mavericks as they trail the Lakers by two and a half games for eighth place in the Western Conference with the season winding down quickly. I played against them in their last game against Los Angeles but I expect a big effort tonight as this game could very well determine the postseason outcome. Dallas has struggled on the road this season with a 14-23 record while the Nuggets possess the best home record at 33-3 so the challenge seems to be difficult but we are getting a line that is taking that into account. Denver is coming off a win last night in Utah and it has actually struggled with no rest playing that first game on the road as it is 3-6 on the year. The Nuggets are playing for home court advantage in the first round of the playoffs as they are tied with Memphis for fourth place in the Western Conference so this game means a lot to them as well so they will not be sitting down. However, I expect the Mavericks to show that the significance of this game is more on their side and they have been great facing adversity, going 14-2 ATS in their last 16 games following a loss. They have fared well in this tough environment as well, going 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings in Denver and they fall into a great contrarian situation where we play against home teams after two straight wins by 10 points or more going up against an opponent after scoring 85 points or less. This situation is 38-17 ATS (69.1 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (703) Dallas Mavericks

Washington has been playing very well in the second half of the season but it has struggled all year in the situation of no rest with the second game being on the road as it is winless at 0-10 n such spots. The Wizards are coming off a win at home against Chicago last night which was their second straight win with the first one coming against Toronto two nights earlier. While it has been a much stronger second half, winning on the road is still a problem as Washington is 7-29 away from home, which is tied for the second worst road record in the NBA. Toronto will be looking for some revenge following that loss in Washington but more importantly, it will be just looking to win as the Raptors have lost two straight and seven of their last eight games. The Raptors are 17-8 ATS in their last 25 games against teams with a winning percentage below .400 and hey fall into a great situation going against the Wizards as we play against road underdogs that are coming off a home win by 10 points or more with a winning percentage between .250 and .400. This situation is 62-30 ATS (67.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (504) Toronto Raptors

This is a big game for both sides with the playoffs approaching as Dallas and Los Angeles are chasing Utah for the final playoff spot in the Western Conference. The Mavericks are two games back while the Lakers are a half-game back following the Jazz win last night, their fifth straight overall. This is the fourth and final meeting between these two teams and the road team has owned it so far with three wins through the first three games but that changes tonight. Dallas beat the Lakers 99-91 at the Staples Center in the season opener, but the only time in franchise history it recorded two wins in Los Angeles came in the 1983-84 season. The Lakers have won 11 of their last 13 home games despite a loss against Washington in their last game at the Staples Center and they have followed up a home loss with a win in their last three home games. The Lakers also fall into a phenomenal situation as we play on teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are averaging 102 or more ppg going up against a teams allowing 102 or more ppg, after scoring 100 points or more four straight games. This situation is 29-8 ATS (78.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (766) Los Angeles Lakers

The Clippers return home following a disappointing roadtrip where they went 1-3 including losses in each of their last two games. Los Angeles has won three straight games at home where it is 28-8 on the season and holding its own there is especially important now as it trails the Nuggets by a game fir third place in the Western Conference standings. With 49 wins overall, the Clippers are seeking a 50th victory for the first time in franchise history and we should see a huge effort tonight after what took place in Houston. The Clippers were outscored 30-13 in the third quarter while Blake Griffin, DeAndre Jordan, Caron Butler and Willie Green were benched in the final period. The Pacers meanwhile are coming off a win in Phoenix and have gone 3-0 to start this four-game roadtrip while winning four straight overall. Indiana is still a game under .500 on the road so it has had issues despite the current run. Adding to the Pacers success is the fact that it has played the easiest schedule in the NBA and they have played on point against the opposition as they are 38-10 as favorites while going just 9-17 when in the role of underdog. The Clippers meanwhile are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games against the NBA Central and 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a double-digit loss. Indiana is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 road games against teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. 10* (746) Los Angeles Clippers

I'm not a proponent of laying road chalk too many times but we have a good situation to do so here. Oklahoma City is coming off a loss in Minnesota last night to fall to two and a half games behind the Spurs for first place in the Western Conference. They have a game at home against San Antonio on deck but it is not for four days so they will be out to get back into the win column and cut that lead back to two games. The Thunder have been a great team this season coming off a loss as they are 15-4 following a loss while covering 13 of those 19 games. They have been just average when playing with no rest but they pulled out a win and cover when playing the second of back-to-back road games following a loss in the only other similar situation this season. Milwaukee snapped a four-game losing streak with a win over the Lakers on Thursday but that was an ideal situation as Los Angles was coming off a win the previous night while the Bucks were coming off a loss at Philadelphia the night before. Milwaukee has been just average at home, going 19-17, and it is just 2-5 both straight up and against the number as a home underdog. Additionally, the Bucks are 5-13 in their 18 home games this season when coming off a spread victory while going 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games playing with just a day of rest. The Thunder meanwhile are 21-8-1 ATS in their last games after allowing 100 or more points in their previous game. 10* (511) Oklahoma City Thunder

Denver had won 15 straight games but went on the road and had the streak halted at New Orleans as the Nuggets were routed by 24 points. The challenge was tougher in their last game at San Antonio but they played better despite coming up short by just a point. Now riding a two-game losing streak, Denver returns home on Friday where it will show no mercy in getting back into the win column. The Nuggets are 32-3 at home including wins in 17 straight games. Brooklyn has gotten off to a great start on its season long eight-game roadtrip as it is 4-1 through the first five games but all of those wins have come against teams not currently in playoff spots, with Dallas being the only contender. The lone defeat came at the Clippers and surprisingly, the Nets were getting more points in that game than they are now which is due to its current run. This is a revenge game for Denver which lost in Brooklyn by 11 points last month which was the final leg of a three-game losing streak. The Nuggets have won the last five home meetings with the Nets by an average of 13.2 ppg and I expect similar things here. The Nets are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games against teams with a winning percentage above .600 while Denver is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games following a loss. Additionally, the Nuggets are 14-4 ATS this season at home against teams with a winning record. 10* (870) Denver Nuggets

Sacramento is coming off a rare road win last night in Golden St. as it upset the Warriors by seven points as a nine-point underdog. It was just the seventh road win for the Kings and winning consecutive road games has happened only one other time this year. The last four road victories have resulted in a loss in the next road game by 20, 9, 18 and 28 points. The victory snapped a two-game losing streak and while consecutive road victories have been few and far between, consecutive victories of any sort have been hard to come by as Sacramento is 8-17 straight up and 10-15 ATS. While the Kings were winning at Golden St., the Suns were getting destroyed in Utah as they lost by 15 points. The difference was a big fourth quarter by the Jazz as Phoenix entered the final period down by only four points. It was the fourth straight loss for Phoenix as it fell to 7-29 on the road and it will look to break a three-game home losing streak where it is a much more respectable 16-20 on the season. When playing with no rest and the second game being on the road, the Suns are a dismal 2-10 but when the second game of a back-to-back set is at home, they are 2-3 both straight up and against the number and it needs to be noted that two of those losses were against the Heat and Clippers. The last time this situation took place, Phoenix lost at Sacramento and came home to defeat the Rockets the next night. That brings up another solid spot as the Suns will be out for revenge from that Kings loss and they will be going for the season series win on top of it. Phoenix is 10-2 ATS in the last 12 home meetings against Sacramento including an 11-point win in the first home matchup this season. 10* (806) Phoenix Suns

Memphis is sitting in fifth place in the Western Conference but is just a game out of third place so improving on seeding is very possible still. The Grizzlies had won 14 of 15 games but have since gone just 3-4 over their last seven games with the home team winning all seven of those games. That would make the Knicks the likely choice here but I feel that streak is broken tonight. Memphis is coming off an embarrassing road loss at Washington making it four straight non-covers but playing another Eastern Conference team is just what it needs. The Grizzlies are 21-7 straight up and 19-9 ATS in non-conference games this season while going 15-7 following a loss. While the Grizzlies have faltered, the Knicks have found their rhythm again as they have won five straight games including a romp at rival Boston last night. New York is now two and a half games ahead of Brooklyn in the Atlantic Division and percentage points ahead of Indiana for second place in the Eastern Conference. Additionally, the Knicks have covered six straight games so we are going contrarian on both sides of the ATS streaks. New York is just 11-19 against teams ranked within the top 16 while Memphis is 21-16 against similar teams while going 51-25-3 ATS in its last 79 games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. Also, we play against teams where the line is between +3 and -3 that are revenging a road loss of 10 points or more going up against an opponent off a road loss. This situation is 78-42 ATS (65 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (759) Memphis Grizzlies

After a bad start to the season, Dallas has made a strong late-season charge as it is 21-13 over its last 34 games and is within striking distance in the Western Conference. The Mavericks trail the Lakers by just a game and a half for the eighth and final playoff spot following two straight wins coupled with Los Angeles having lost three in a row. Dallas is 20-14 at home and it needs to continue to take care of business there and while this is no easy task tonight, this is the start of five straight games against teams currently in playoff positions including two more after this at home. The Clippers are also riding a two-game winning streak but both of those games were at home. They have dropped two straight on the road including a loss at Sacramento last time out and this is the start of four road games in five nights. Clippers head coach Vinny Del Negro said Chris Paul will be a gametime decision tonight because of an injuries knee. He thinks he will play but because of this four-in-five trip, he may hold him out. "I don't want him to play half-speed out there and have a setback," he said. "I feel he'll be out there. I just don't know how much and how sore he'll be." Los Angeles has won the first two meetings against the Mavericks but both of those were at home and it has not swept a season series against Dallas in two decades. Dallas is 17-8 ATS this season revenging a loss and the Mavericks are 18-4 ATS in their last 22 games following an ATS loss while the Clippers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a straight up win. 10* (656) Dallas Mavericks

Denver continues it roll into the record books as it has won 15 straight games which has tied a franchise record. It has played second fiddle to Miami but this is a very impressive run. The Nuggets should be getting Ty Lawson and Wilson Chandler back tonight, which was the main reason there was no line until late Monday morning. The schedule has been someone favorable with nine of those games coming at home and four road games coming against teams that will not be vying for the playoffs. We can lump New Orleans into that group but this is a dangerous team that has won its last two games, both against upcoming playoff teams, and will be playing with some pride tonight after getting hammered in both meetings this season against the Nuggets, both in Denver. The Nuggets won those games by 18 and 15 points and they are now favored on the road by nearly the same that they were favored by at home in the most recent matchup last month. While the Nuggets are going for a franchise record winning streak, we cannot overlook the fact that they may be overlooking the Hornets are peeking ahead to their upcoming game against San Antonio on Wednesday. Denver has definitely been hot on the road but it is hard to ignore the fact that it is 17-19 on the highway this season. While the Hornets home record may be worse than that, it is worse by only two and a half games and the linesmakers have had to overadjust with this line. After going on a 10-0-1 ATS run over 11 games, the Nuggets have failed to cover in three of their last four games. The home team has covered four straight meetings and that streak continues tonight. 10* (608) New Orleans Hornets

The Bulls let us down on Thursday as they were hammered pretty bad against Portland. It was their second straight loss, both coming at home, so I expect them to be very motivated tonight to break that skid. Additionally, Chicago will be looking to avoid a four-game series sweep against the Pacers which only adds to the situation. Every game is starting to matter for Chicago which is only a half-game ahead of Boston for sixth place in the Eastern Conference and only 2.5 games in front of the eighth-place Bucks. Avoiding seventh and eighth place is must in the playoffs. Indiana meanwhile is coming off a win last night against Milwaukee as it broke away in the second half for a 24-point victory. The Pacers are rolling again as after dropping four of six, Indiana has won its past three games by an average of 22.4 ppg. The difference though is that the last two games were at home with the road win coming at Cleveland which is the third worst team in the Eastern Conference. The Pacers are just 15-18 on the road as they have beaten the teams they should beat but have lost to the better teams. It shows in the results based on the lines as Indiana is 11-3 as a road favorite but a dismal 4-15 as a road underdog. Chicago falls into a dominant situation as we play on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are revenging a same season loss going up against that opponent which is coming off a divisional win by 20 points or more. This situation is 42-15 ATS (73.7 percent) since 1996. 10* (506) Chicago Bulls

The Knicks are clearly the better team in this matchup so the line switch from underdog to favorite is justified and a win here likely means a cover as well. After losing four straight games to open a five-game roadtrip, New York won the final road game of the trek against Utah and then blew out Orlando in its most recent game two nights ago. Games are becoming more important now for the Knicks as they are ahead of Brooklyn by just one game in the Atlantic Division so taking care of business in the winnable games is essential right now. New York is 29-7 this season against teams outside the top 16 in the NBA power rankings and it is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 games against teams with a winning percentage below .400. Toronto is 3-9 over its last 12 games including a loss at Charlotte last time out. You can argue that embarrassing defeat will have the Raptors motivated tonight and while that very well could be the case, they won't have enough to bring to the table. The three victories over this recent 12-game stretch came against Charlotte, Cleveland and Phoenix, three of the worst five teams in the NBA power rankings. The last time Toronto defeated a team with a winning record came right here exactly one month ago against the Knicks and New York surely has not forgotten. It is actually a double-revenge spot as New York lost the most recent meeting played at MSG last month as well. The Knicks are 17-6 in their last 23 games revenging a loss where the opponent scored 100 or more points. 10* (801) New York Knicks

I played on Chicago in its last game against Denver and while it lost, it was able to secure the cover in the one-point defeat. Now the Bulls go from an underdog to a favorite which is a role they have struggled in this season, especially laying a big number as they are 4-12 ATS as favorites of six points or more. They have been more successful as a lesser chalk which is the case tonight. Chicago has had problems this season against the elite teams in the NBA, going just 2-17 against teams ranked within the top ten in power rankings. The Bulls however are 22-9 against teams ranked outside the top 16 and that is where Portland falls. The Blazers are 0-2 on this current roadtrip and while the last game at Milwaukee shows a seven-point loss, they were never really in it as they trailed by as many as 27 points as the Bucks took the pedal off the gas. Portland dropped to 9-25 on the road including losses in 10 of their last 11 and 14 of their last 16 games on the highway. Portland has had the Bulls number with wins in three straight meetings in this series including a win at home earlier this season but that works in out favor here with the revenge factor coming into play. Even more so, Chicago has responded very well coming off a loss, going 21-8 this season and going back further, the Bulls are 10-1 ATS in their 11 games under head coach Tom Thibodeau coming off a loss by three points or less. Additionally, Chicago falls into a great situation where we play on teams in the second half of the season that are allowing between 92 and 98 ppg going up against teams allowing between 98 and 102 ppg, after a combined score of 205 points or more in two straight games. This situation is 113-63 ATS (64.2 percent) since 1996. 10* (702) Chicago Bulls

The Thunder were challenged at home last night against the hottest team in the Western Conference and came up small as they lost by 10 points against Denver. It was just their fifth home loss of the season and based on a previous situation, I expect Oklahoma City to come out strong tonight. The Thunder lost at home against Miami on February 14th, also by 10 points, and ended up losing their next game on the road at Houston. The difference there is that those games were sandwiched around the All-Star break so playing right after that bitter defeat will have them fired up tonight. Oklahoma City has been one of the best teams in the NBA when it comes to playing after a loss as it is 14-3 straight up and 13-4 ATS in their previous 17 games this season following a defeat. Memphis was rolling along with a 14-1 run and then ran into Denver on the road and lost a tough one by seven points and then followed that up with a loss in Utah the following night. The Grizzlies bounced back and easily took care of Minnesota on Monday and while they have been very solid at home with a 26-8 record, they are catching Oklahoma City at the wrong time. This is a revenge game for Memphis which lost at Oklahoma City by 17 points but that was a revenge game at the time for the Thunder which lost to the Grizzlies at home by 10 points earlier in the season. Oklahoma City is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games against teams allowing 91 or fewer ppg over the last two seasons and falls into a solid situation where we play on road teams with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 after being beaten by the spread by more than 18 points in their previous game. This situation is 55-34 ATS (61.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (615) Oklahoma City Thunder

Golden St. is coming off a huge win yesterday as it throttled the Rockets by 30 points. The Warriors were down by two points early but took control of the game as Houston shot just 32.6 percent from the floor including going 9-35 from long range. It was a big win for Golden St. which moved to a game and a half ahead of Houston for sixth place in the Western Conference while avenging a home loss against the Rockets just over a week ago. Winning streaks have been few and far between though as the Warriors are 0-6 ATS in their last six games following a win. New Orleans is back home following a three-game roadtrip where they went 0-3 and losing all three games against the number as well. The Hornets are 9-7 over their last 16 home games and even the losses have been close ones as of those seven defeats, five have been by six points or fewer. Golden St. has won both meetings so far this season but this line is certainly intriguing. The Warriors were getting five points the last time the teams played at New Orleans Arena but now the line has shifted eight points. Things have not changed dramatically either as the Warriors are 14-15 in their 29 games since then and covering has been an even bigger issue as they are 11-18 against the number in those games. New Orleans is 32-16 ATS in its last 48 games when playing with double-revenge and after rough roadtrip, expect the Hornets to come out and take care of business. 10* (518) New Orleans Hornets

Memphis had its six-game winning streak snapped last night in Denver and I expect that to carry over into tonight. This is not only the third game in four nights for the Grizzlies but it is also the fourth game in five nights which is a huge disadvantage playing in the thin air in Salt Lake City against a fresh Jazz team playing with two days of rest. Utah is coming off a horrible showing against the Thunder last time out but a lot of that can be attributed to the effort from the home team as Oklahoma City, which was out to make up from a disappointing loss at San Antonio two nights earlier, was also avenging a 15-point loss to the Jazz last month in Utah. "We got embarrassed and have to be able to compete in these games," Gordon Hayward said in a somber Jazz postgame locker room. "Coming down to three or four weeks left in the season, trying to get into the playoffs, we can't come out with efforts like this." Now Utah is playing with revenge, triple revenge actually. The Jazz have lost the last three meetings including a 13-point loss in this building last time out. The schedule is playing a big part in an awesome situation as we play on home favorites that are playing only their 2nd game in five days going up against an opponent that is playing its 4th game in five days. This situation is 36-9 ATS (80 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* Utah Jazz

Miami is not only the hottest team in the NBA this season but it is one of the hottest teams we have seen in many, many years. The Heat are winners of 20 straight games and one more will make it the third longest winning streak in the history of the NBA. Obviously, that is a tough streak to go against but it is certainly factored in the line as it has been for a while. Despite winning 20 straight games outright, Miami is just 12-8 ATS, which by most stands is excellent but not going against a 100 percent winning clip. Also, the Heat are just 4-6 ATS in their last 10 games after reeling off 20-straight covers. The thinking here is they should roll Milwaukee but this is a team that gives them fits as Miami has actually lost four of the last six meetings against the Bucks including a 19-point Milwaukee win on this floor back in December. The Bucks meanwhile have hit a bit of a skid as they have dropped two straight games following winning six of its previous seven games. The last two losses have not been close ones either as Milwaukee lost at home against Dallas by seven points and at Washington by 13 points. The Heat are scoring an East-leading 103.3 ppg this season but have surpassed that mark only once in eight March games and Milwaukee has done a number on the Miami offense during those last few meetings as mentioned. That doesn't bode well even with the Bucks recent struggles as the Heat are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. This is a great setup for the Bucks which are not only getting a bucket more than the last meeting but has an excellent shot at taking this one outright. 10* (816) Milwaukee Bucks

Memphis rolled into Portland on Tuesday riding a four-game winning streak while winning 12 of its last 13 games to improve to 23 games over .500 and keep pace with Denver. The Grizzlies are a game ahead of the Nuggets for the all-important fourth spot in the Western Conference which comes with home court advantage in the first round of the NBA playoffs. They are 5-1 over their last six road games, the only loss coming at Miami but it still resulted in a cover where Memphis is 6-0 ATS over that stretch. This is the third time for Memphis to try and get some payback on the Clippers as it has been unsuccessful in both attempts this season. The Grizzlies were ousted from the playoff last season by the Clippers in seven games as Los Angeles went into Memphis and took Game Seven by 10 points. It then won the first meeting at home very early in the season but then went back to Memphis and destroyed the Grizzlies by 29 points. Playing with no rest is not an issue as the Grizzlies are 9-4 ATS this season including 3-0 ATS in the second of back-to-back road games. Los Angeles has alternated wins and losses over its last five games and sits one game ahead of Memphis in the Western Conference but more importantly has a comfortable nine-game lead over the Warriors in the Pacific Division. While the home floor has been good this season, the Clippers have struggled against some of the elite teams that have come in as games against Oklahoma City (twice) and San Antonio have resulted in losses. Overall, the Clippers are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games against teams with a winning percentage above .600 while the Grizzlies are 5-2 ATS in their last seven road games against teams with a winning home record. 10* (621) Memphis Grizzlies

We played on San Antonio last night at home against the Thunder but will be going against the Spurs on Tuesday as they hit the road to Minnesota. The Monday game was a big one for the Spurs for a couple reasons as they were playing their first game following a home loss against Portland by 30 points so they were out to make up for that and they were also playing with revenge against the Thunder. A matchup of that magnitude usually results in a letdown the next game and even more so when it is taking place the following night and against a much weaker team. The Spurs have three straight meetings in this series while covering all three as well which includes to wins this season. The last meeting took place in Minnesota and while San Antonio won by 10 points, it was only favored by five points. That was just a little over a month ago so we are getting a much better line this time around and in that last game, Tony Parker was playing for the Spurs and had a game high 31 points. He is obviously out for this one. It has been a tough season for Minnesota as injuries have really hurt the Timberwolves right from the start of the season. They have lost two straight games, both coming by way of a blowout as they lost in Denver by 23 points and then followed that up with a home loss against Dallas by 23 points. Clearly Minnesota is the far inferior team here but when playing the situational angles, they are in good shape for a bounceback on its own part. The Spurs have struggled in playing down to the competition as they are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games against teams with a winning percentage below .400. San Antonio has been favored by seven or more points on the road five times since mid-December as has gone 1-4 ATS with the lone cover coming just one point. 10* (564) Minnesota Timberwolves

San Antonio has had this game circled since Friday after it was blown out at home against Portland by 30 points. It was the franchise's worst defeat in Tim Duncan's 16 seasons and the second-worst ever at home while the 136 points were the most by a Spurs opponent at the AT&T Center. The challenge will be tough here no doubt as the Thunder bring in one of the best offenses in the NBA but the Spurs will respond to that Friday debacle in a big way. Additionally, San Antonio will be out for revenge following a 14-point loss in Oklahoma City in the last meeting between these two teams. The Thunder are coming off a home win on Sunday against Boston to make it five straight wins to move to within a game of San Antonio for first place in the Western Conference. While they are 14-3 ATS at home against teams with a winning record, the Thunder are just 7-8 ATS on the road against winning teams and they are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games against teams with a winning home record. San Antonio meanwhile is 25-4 at home despite the loss on Friday and it is 12-2 following its 14 previous defeats this season. The only two times the Spurs have lost consecutive games this season took place back in December and in both instances, both of those games were on the road and both were in no rest situation. San Antonio has covered four straight following a loss while going 13-4-1 ATS in its last 18 games following a double-digit loss and they are 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. The Spurs also fall into a great situation where we play on home teams that are revenging a road loss of 10 points or more and coming off a loss by 15 points or more as a favorite. This situation is 61-27 ATS (69.3 percent) since 1996. 10* (504) San Antonio Spurs

Despite being the better team overall, the Blazers are totally overvalued in this game and in no way should they be a road favorite. Portland is coming off a 30-point demolition of San Antonio on Friday and that is surely playing into this number. It was a shocking win as the Blazers were double-digit underdogs in that game and rightfully so as they came in with just eight road wins prior to that. Now they are favored for the fourth time in 32 games on the highway and their 0-3 straight up and ATS mark the three previous times shows they are in another tough spot. New Orleans has dropped its last three games and wins have been few and far between since a 4-1 run in early February. The Hornets are coming off a loss in Memphis last night but they have been respectable in back-to-back situations this season, going 3-4 straight up and 4-3 ATS when that first game of the back-to-back was on the road. Portland is playing with revenge after suffering a 36-point loss here last month but road revenge is not a strong angle to back. The Blazers are 2-13 ATS in their last 15 road games after a double-digit win while New Orleans is 16-4 ATS in its last 20 games following a double-digit road loss. Additionally, New Orleans falls into a great situation where we play against teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are revenging a road loss of 10 points or more going up against that opponent coming off a road loss. This situation is 76-42 ATS (64.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (814) New Orleans Hornets

Miami has won 17 consecutive games so clearly it has a bulls-eye on its back and while value may be slim, this is actually a favorable spot for the Heat. They have been at home for close to a week so the schedule is on their side and while a lot of the recent wins have come against far superior opposition, that will not go against them here. Miami took out the Pacers in last year's playoffs four games to two after falling down two games to one but it has been Indiana getting the upper hand this season with two wins in the first two matchups. The Pacers took out Miami by 10 points in January and then by 13 points in February but both of those games were at home. Additionally, Miami was favored by a bucket both times and now favored by just 4.5 points more here, the value is going their way. Indiana has won four straight games on the road but that is in a span of over a month. The Pacers have played only four games on the highway in their last 17 games so the schedule has definitely been in their favor. And the road games have been pretty tame as they have come against Philadelphia, Detroit, Toronto and Orlando, which are four of the worst seven teams in the Eastern Conference. The Pacers are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 road games against teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600 and the fact that Miami has not covered any of its last five games at home puts even more value on it here. 10* (808) Miami Heat

Clearly Oklahoma City is a better team than Charlotte, 31.5 games better to be exact. Looking a power ratings, the Thunder are first and the Bobcats are last so looking simply at those factors, the Thunder should roll. But that is why they play the games. Take them out of Oklahoma City and while still a very strong team, they are far from the same. They are 17-12 straight up and 14-13-2 ATS while going 13-12-1 against the number as a road chalk. Decent but far from dominating. And the situation at hand is not in Oklahoma City's favor as this can be considered a big breather game as it is coming off a string of games against the Nuggets, Chippers, Lakers and Knicks, three of which were on the road and the last one coming Thursday night in New York. The Thunder have not traveled well either as they are 2-3 straight up ATS when playing the second of back-to-back road games. Oklahoma City has been favored by 14 or more points four times but all four times have been at home. Charlotte has been an underdog of 14 or more points four times but all of those games were on the road. The Thunder have been double-digit road favorites only twice this season and they failed to cover either of those games, losing one straight up in Washington as a matter of fact. Charlotte has had some bad losses this season but it was completely embarrassed in the first meeting at Oklahoma City as it lost by 45 points, easily the biggest loss this season so motivation will not be an issue. The Bobcats also fall into a great situation as we play on underdogs that have failed to cover the spread in 12 or more of the last 15 going up against an opponent that has covered five or six of its last seven games against the spread. This situation is 45-19 ATS (70.3 percent) since 1996. 10* (804) Charlotte Bobcats

The Clippers are currently fourth in the latest NBA power rankings with the Spurs, Thunder and Heat sitting ahead of them. Los Angeles is 10-3 over its last 13 games with those three losses coming against the Spurs, Thunder and Heat and surprisingly, two of those were at home. The Clippers had lost six of seven road games but they have won their last five games on the highway to improve to 20-12 away from home and those 20 wins are the second most in the NBA. They are coming off a home blowout win last night over Milwaukee but there is no concern of a letdown or playing with no rest. The Clippers are 34-9 this season following a victory so they certainly do not get caught up in anything. Additionally, they are 10-5 this season when playing with no rest while going a perfect 3-0 when traveling from home to on the road. Denver is going to be a very popular play and for good reason as the Nuggets are 26-3 at home including wins in 16 of 17 but nothing has been easy against the top teams on its home floor. Denver lost to Miami, defeated San Antonio by six points, defeated Oklahoma City in overtime, defeated Indiana by one point and defeated Oklahoma City again by two points. As you can see, they have been far from dominant against the top five teams in the league but there is one omission. The Nuggets took out the Clippers by 14 points which sets up a payback spot for Los Angeles but road revenge is not an angle as there will be plenty of motivation anyway. But it does put the Clippers in good position as they are 13-4 ATS revenging a loss this season. Los Angeles has won and covered seven of 10 games when getting points this season and we can add another one to the list here. 10* (503) Los Angeles Clippers

This is the second game of the home-and-home between Houston and Dallas and the Mavericks will be out for some payback after getting shellacked at Houston on Sunday. The game was close through halftime but the Rockets exploded for 44 points in the third quarter, ended up building a 37-point lead and went on to win by 33 points. Houston was playing for revenge on Sunday as it had lost both of the previous meetings this season and going back had dropped the last nine meetings in this series so while it will be out to get its own winning streak going against Dallas, this is not the spot to do it in. The Rockets have been playing better on the road as they are 6-5 over their last 11 games on the highway but are still 13-19 overall. Dallas had a nice run going where it went 12-6 over 18 games to close January and open February but it has since lost four of its last five games culminating with the defeat in Houston. The Mavericks are coming off a 1-2 roadtrip and will be out to snap a two-game skid at home where they are now 16-12 on the season. They are 20-12 ATS following a loss this season including 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games and going back further they are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games following a loss by more than 10 points. While the Rockets have been profitable following a win and despite the cover against Dallas last time out, they are just 1-4 ATS against teams with a losing record. Payback will be sweet for the Mavericks on Wednesday. 10* (720) Dallas Mavericks

The Lakers concluded their homestand with a last second victory over Atlanta which pushed them to 30-30 on the season which is the first time they have been at .500 since late December. Going back, Los Angeles is 13-5 over its last 18 games and while that may seem impressive, the schedule has definitely helped it out. Half of those games were at home which is a bonus while five of the nine road games came against teams not even sniffing the playoffs while it lost three of the other four. The Lakers are 3-18 against teams ranked within the top ten of the NBA power rankings and that is horrible for a team that is ranked in the same group by some rankings. Putting that into perspective, teams such as Phoenix, Washington and Minnesota have far better records against the top ten than Los Angeles and it three wins is only one better than Charlotte, Sacramento and Detroit. Oklahoma City returns home following a solid road victory at the Clippers on Sunday and it will be out for some payback on top of it. The Thunder are 26-4 at home and they will be looking to take the season series after winning the first two games but losing the most recent meeting in Los Angeles by nine points. They have been awesome when laying a big number as they are 22-8 ATS in 30 games this season when laying eight or more points. Conversely, the Lakers are 4-15 ATS this season when getting points and again, that comes down to their struggles against the top teams. Additionally, the Thunder are 7-0 ATS in their last seven home games against teams with a road winning percentage of less than .400 while los Angeles is 16-37 ATS in its last 53 games following a victory. 10* (504) Oklahoma City Thunder

The NBA is funny at times where you will see teams play the complete opposite of what they just did depending on the opponent, situation or other factors so basically, you cannot go by 'what you see is what you get'. This is an ugly underdog play for tonight and a lot of it is based on the opposite of what Charlotte has done and what it has done to the line. The Bobcats are off to a 0-3 start on this roadtrip including two straight losses by 30 and 36 points. That is the definition of ugly. As a matter of fact, Charlotte has dropped six straight games overall, losing all of those against the spread, and by an average of 14.2 ATS ppg. The public will be no doubt riding against Charlotte once again so the line had to be adjusted. In this case I feel it was adjusted by too much. Portland is coming off a win over Minnesota on Saturday which was its second win in three games but going back it is just 7-16 in its last 23 games to fall way back in the playoff picture. This includes a 6-6 record at home which is certainly nothing special and some of those losses came against the likes of Cleveland, Milwaukee, Washington and Phoenix so it isn't like they have only been losing to the elite teams. The Blazers are now favored by the most points they have been favored by all season and the role of favorite has not been good anyway as they are 5-11 as a chalk of more than three points. Obviously Charlotte has not been very good against the spread this season but it is hard to see the Blazers get up for this one considering they are 9-19 ATS already this season against teams with a losing record. Also, they are 4-17 ATS in their last 21 games following two or more consecutive covers and they fall into a negative situation where we play against favorites of 10 or more points after having lost four or five of their last six games, and playing just four or less games in 10 days. This situation is 36-13 ATS (73.5 percent) since 1996. 10* (711) Charlotte Bobcats