Sports Picks & Predictions

This is an excellent spot for the Wizards as they look to bounce back from another road loss on Saturday at Charlotte. Washington is now 0-18 on the road this season, the lone remaining winless team away from home but it has performed a lot better on its home floor as it is 9-8 and a chance for another rebound. The Wizards are 7-5 in home games following a road loss which is nothing special but there will be some extra motivation in place for tonight

The coaching change that the Bobcats have gone has paid off thus far and there is a lot more energy with this team. After beginning 9-19 under Larry Brown, Charlotte has gone 4-2 under interim coach Paul Silas. The players, who were said to have quit under Brown, are playing with more energy in the Silas system as they are running once again and the up-tempo style so far has been a success. The schedule has been soft but wins are wins and that only helps with the confidence. Memphis had its three-game winning streak snapped with a loss at Oklahoma City on Saturday and it was a very impressive streak to say the least as the three wins came against the Thunder, Jazz and Lakers. Still, the Grizzlies have struggled on the road this season with a 6-14 record yet are road favorites in this contest, making it just the third time this season they have been in that role. It has not been a good role either as Memphis lost all three games outright. Charlotte has the better home/road split record in this matchup yet it is still the underdog. The Bobcats record could be better as bad luck has been on their side as nine of the 21 losses have been by five points or fewer. There is also an added bit of motivation for Charlotte. This is a big revenge game for the Bobcats as well as these teams played back on December 15th and Memphis gave it to the Bobcats by 33 points which is the worst loss of the season for Charlotte. The Bobcats swept the season series the previous two years so that lopsided win was more of an aberration than a normal occurrence between these two teams. Memphis is 0-4 ATS in its last four games as a road favorite of fewer than five points while the Bobcats are 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games against teams with a losing road record. Also, Charlotte is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 home games following a home win in its last game. Revenge will be sweet tonight. 10* (702) Charlotte Bobcats

The Nuggets head home after getting embarrassed on Wednesday and Thursday against the Clippers and Kings respectively and they will look to take their frustrations out in a revenge spot against the Hornets. Denver lost the two games out west by 13 and 20 points to drop to 5-12 on the road this season but it is a whole different matter at home. The Nuggets are 15-3 in Denver this season with two of the losses coming against the Mavericks and Spurs by a point each. New Orleans continues its short road trip following a tough loss against the Lakers on Friday as it lost by just four points. That dropped the Hornets to 7-11 on the road including 11 of the last 15 after starting the season 3-0 on the road and trying to grab a road win here will not be easy as they have dropped five straight meetings in Denver by an average of 14.8 ppg. The Hornets have not fared well within the conference as they are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games against Western Conference teams. Denver head coach George Karl summed up the Kings game pretty simple.

Atlanta returns home following a very successful roadtrip where it went 3-1 including wins in its last three games which is part of a great situation explained later. The Hawks are now 16-7 over their last 23 games and excluding losses against New Jersey and Detroit, those other five defeats came against some elite teams. All of those were on the road as well as Atlanta brings in a nine-game home winning streak after a slow start where it went 3-5 in its first eight games. Indiana is coming off a tough loss last night at home against the Spurs and that will a tough one to bounce back from. The Pacers have been in a huge rut and a win there could have possibly gotten them going in the right direction but instead it dropped them to 5-12 over their last 17 games. This includes a 0-8 record on the road which is very disappointing following a solid 5-2 start away from home. This is a revenge game, actually eight times over, but road revenge is not in play very much in the NBA. That revenge aspect puts the Hawks into a great situation as well as the recent Atlanta road success as mentioned. Play against road teams that are revenging a loss where team scored less than 85 points going up against an opponent off three or more consecutive road wins. This situation is 33-6 ATS (84.6 percent) since 1996 including a perfect 8-0 ATS record the last five seasons. Also, the Hawks are 8-0 ATS in their last eight home games after a double-digit win as an underdog. 10* (506) Atlanta Hawks

The Bulls have won five straight games thanks to winning their last four games at home where they are 15-3 on the season. The lone road win over this streak was in Detroit in overtime to move to over .500 on the season and recently, 11 of Chicago

This is a bad spot for the Spurs. After losing at Orlando two days before Christmas which snapped a 10-game winning streak, San Antonio has started another run by winning four straight games and also covering each of those. The Spurs are the second best road team in the NBA with a 10-2 record so naturally they are going to be favored the majority of the time as they have been in seven of 12 games. They are 4-2-1 ATS in those games but only one win came against a winning team and that was Dallas without Dirk Nowitzki. Tomorrow night San Antonio heads to Boston where it will be a matchup of the top teams from each conference so there is a definite lookahead situation in place for tonight. The Spurs have dominated this series with the Knicks and despite New York owning a winning record, a full amount of focus tonight will be difficult. San Antonio has avoided some of the league

I played on the Clippers in their last game but they fell at home to the Jazz by eight points. I am coming right back here with them as they fall into a very good spot. Prior to the loss on Wednesday, it had won five of its last six games including three on the road which is most impressive. The Clippers are becoming much more competitive now that the roster has had some time to play together and this young team is coming together and playing exciting basketball. Blake Griffin is turning into a star in his rookie season as he has recorded 20 consecutive double-doubles. Atlanta lost the first game of its roadtrip in Oklahoma City on Friday to fall to .500 on the road for the season which is still pretty solid in this league. I played on the Hawks two road games back when it hammered Milwaukee but that was a big revenge situation and Atlanta was an underdog in that game with a lot of value attached to it. As a road favorite, there is no value as it is 1-3 ATS in its last four games in that role while going 2-5 ATS in its last seven games as a favorite of fewer than five points. Also, the Hawks are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games. 10* (804) Los Angeles Clippers

The Raptors are coming off a huge win against the Mavericks in their last game and because that was three nights back, any confidence from that has been lost. After a 6-2 run at the end of November and the beginning of December, Toronto has gone 3-9 over their last 12 games and things could get even worse with the injuries piling up. The injury report is dotted with six names since the game against Dallas and the Raptors could be severely shorthanded tonight and not even close to 100 percent at the very least. Houston had its five-game winning streak snapped against Miami on Wednesday but they look to close out December with one more win and improve upon their 10-4 month thus far. The game against the Heat would possibly put Houston into letdown mode here however the Rockets should be sky high for this game following their 10-pont loss at Toronto last month. The home team has won seven straight meetings in this series and each of those games were double-digit victories by the host. The Raptors are 18-37 ATS in their last 55 games as underdog between 3.5 and 9.5 points while the Rockets are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six games following a loss. 10* (810) Houston Rockets

Don

The Lakers are coming off back-to-back losses and they were ugly losses. Both came at home against Milwaukee and Miami by 19 and 16 points respectively and it has been rare for them to put together horrible consecutive showings. A trip on the road can only help and those two defeats are adding to the value here. This is the first game this season that the Lakers have been underdogs and they are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points. The Spurs bounced back from their big loss in Orlando with a home win over Washington two days ago. The loss to the Magic snapped a 10-game winning streak, which was the second double-digit winning streak for San Antonio this season. The Spurs have the best record in the NBA while their 17 wins at home are easily the most in the league. They have been very fortunate with their schedule as 19 of their 30 games have come at home. The Lakers have covered four straight games on the road and they fall into a solid situation based on their most recent setback. Play on teams that are coming off a loss by 15 points or more as a favorite, playing with two days rest. This situation is 34-12 ATS (73.9 percent) over the last five seasons with the average point differential being +4.7 ppg. While the Lakers want to end their skid, I

Atlanta lost in New Orleans last night as 3.5-point underdogs and tonight it will be looking for some revenge against the Bucks. Surprisingly the Hawks are getting just a point less tonight than they got last night despite playing a team that is five games worse and ranked eight spots lower in the NBA power rankings. This is considered excellent line value for a team that will be going for payback following a 17-point home loss against the Bucks in November. Milwaukee is playing for the first time since December 23rd so any momentum it has from its two-game winning streak has been lost. In the first meeting that Milwaukee won, we played on the Bucks and easily cashed and that was based on the revenge angle as well. We cannot forget that Milwaukee took the Hawks to seven games in the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals last season in the and actually held a 3-2 lead before Atlanta ended up blowing the Bucks out in the last two games. The Bucks are banged up heading into this game as they are still without Brandon Jennings while Drew Gooden and Corey Maggette remain questionable. Atlanta meanwhile is back to full strength. Milwaukee is 2-5-2 ATS in its last nine home games while going 1-5-1 ATS in its last seven games within the conference. Also, the Bucks are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as favorites of fewer than four points while Atlanta is a perfect 3-0 ATS as underdogs of fewer than three points this season. 10* (707) Atlanta Hawks

Should Cleveland be favored over any team? In most cases no, but in this case, yes. The Cavaliers are off to a dreadful 8-21 start to the season including losses in 12 of their last 13 games. Even worse, of those 12 losses, nine came by double-digits so this team is obviously not playing very well right now. One of those defeats came in Minnesota as the Timberwolves defeated Cleveland by 34 points. It is the biggest loss for the Cavaliers this season so they will be out for some payback. While it was the biggest loss for Cleveland, that victory was the most lopsided one this season for the Timberwolves which adds even more fuel to the fire for the Cavaliers. Minnesota is not playing well right now as it has dropped seven straight games, six of which were on the road. Speaking of the road, the Timberwolves are 1-17 on the road this season including losses in 12 straight. Minnesota is getting outscored by 13.2 ppg in those 18 road games. Cleveland is 18-6 ATS in its last 24 home games following a road loss and while most of that came with LeBron James in the mix, the Cavaliers are 4-1 ATS in that role this season. They are also 4-1 ATS in their last five home games against teams with a losing road record. Minnesota meanwhile is 3-8-1 ATS in its last 12 games playing with three or more days rest while going 4-12 ATS in its 16 games against the NBA Central. The favorite has covered five straight in this series as well. 10* (504) Cleveland Cavaliers

The Magic would like to forget last season when it comes to the Celtics that

Orlando continues its struggles as it has now lost four straight games and is 1-8 over its last nine games. That is a real struggle and now facing the team with the best record in the NBA seems like a real problem but this team is too talented to keep the skid going. Orlando is favored which is putting the public action on the Spurs side which was bound to happen. The Magic will be playing for revenge as well from an earlier season loss but that is secondary right now as they simply need to win. I stated in the analysis of the Dallas game that three of the new players saw action for Orlando in that Atlanta game and Gilbert Arenas, Hedo Turkoglu and Jason Richardson shot a combined 6-23 (26.1 percent) so the offense was clearly out of sync. I claimed it can

This is a great spot for New Orleans. The Hornets are coming off consecutive road losses on Sunday and Monday and they have now dropped six straight games away from home. The good news is that they are back home where they have won two straight and are 11-3 on the season. Even though it is only New Jersey coming to town, we can expect the hornets to be fully focused here as this is the last game for four days and they want to end their modest losing skid heading into the holiday. New Jersey is coming off a win last night in Memphis which makes it two straight wins and three of four for the Nets. However I do not think they make it three in a row as they have not won three straight games since February of 2009. New Jersey has been very solid this season when playing with no rest but this is the first instance this season where the Nets are playing back-to-back road games and not getting double-digits in the second one. The Nets are off until December 27th and they may be looking ahead to the break. New Orleans will also be looking for some redemption. The Hornets lost by 28 points at New Jersey toward the end of last season which was the first Nets win in this series in the last six games. New Jersey is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven games as a road underdog while the Hornets are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games against teams with a winning road percentage of less than .400 and 39-18 ATS in their last 57 home games after two consecutive non-conference game. New Orleans gets its revenge tonight. 10* (512) New Orleans Hornets

I played against Orlando on a small play and played on Dallas on a premium play last night but am switching both roles tonight and going with the Magic. The Mavericks are coming off a big win in Miami last night, their second over the Heat this season and while they are one of the top teams and hottest teams in the league, that is going to spell a letdown. Dallas is 3-1 ATS this season when playing with no rest but the one loss came in a similar spot with both games being on the road. Orlando lost again last night making it seven losses in its last eight games so things need to start turning around pretty quickly. One of the big reasons for playing against the Magic last night was because of all of the new players in and the old players out. That was the first time the new team played together as they were not even able to practice. With a game under their belt and a return home, things will be better tonight even though the competition is not any easier. Three of the new players saw action for Orlando last night and Gilbert Arenas, Hedo Turkoglu and Jason Richardson shot a combined 6-23 (26.1 percent) so the offense was clearly out of sync. I am not saying one game is going to solve it but we can be assured that the shooting will not be any worse tonight. Also, Orlando was outrebounded 51-38 which also goes back to the rotations and that rebounding disadvantage was a rarity. We will see a turnaround of that tonight also. Dallas has been particularly tough as an underdog this season as it is undefeated against the number in that role which was a major reason for playing it last night but we are going contrarian tonight as the situation is a very difficult one. Orlando is 41-17 ATS in its last 58 games coming off a road loss including a 20-7 ATS mark when coming off a double-digit road loss. The Magic are also 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games when playing at home off a double-digit loss. 10* (702) Orlando Magic

Normally teams that are playing very well and have a big streak going tend to lose line value but that is not the case here. The Sixers have been playing excellent basketball as they have won three straight games and seven of nine since the end of November. More importantly for our purposes, Philadelphia has covered 10 straight games but the rare value is still there despite this run. The Sixers are 7-1 in their last eight home games, the lone blemish being just a one-point loss to the Celtics. The reason for the continued line value on the Sixers is because of who they are playing. The Lakers are road favorites, which has been the case in all 14 of their previous road games this season and they have gone 9-5 straight up and 7-7 against the number which is very average for a team that has been favored in each contest. This is the result of the public perception that the Lakers receive as they are one of the most heavily bets teams every year based on simply who they are and the lines need to be adjusted. Philadelphia is the second most profitable team in the NBA when it comes to the spread as it is 17-7-1 ATS including 10-3 ATS at home. The Lakers are in a difficult spot here as this is their sixth straight road game and their third game in four nights so the travel has been grueling the last 10 days. And even with this, Los Angeles has played the 30th ranked schedule in the NBA which shows it has been a relatively easy start to the season. The Sixers are 0-6 against the NBA

San Antonio remains red hot as it has won six straight games but it is important to note that all of those games were at home. The last time the Spurs hit the road was on the first of the month against the Clippers and we cashed a ticket on Los Angeles as it won outright. That is the only road loss of the season for San Antonio which is no doubt impressive but its lack of recent road play is a big disadvantage here especially knowing that the Spurs return home for three more game directly following this game. The Nuggets still own a very solid home court advantage as they are 11-1 at the Pepsi Center on the season. The only loss came against Dallas in the fourth game of the season and that was by only a single point. Denver was favored in that game and this game marks just the third time this season that is has been a home underdog, resulting in wins in those games outright against the Magic and the Lakers. The Nuggets are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as a home underdog dating back to last season. All of the trade talk surrounding Carmelo Anthony has not been a distraction for the Nuggets. Following a four-game roadtrip, Anthony insisted it was good to be home, even if he has no idea how much longer this may still be home. When asked if he wants to remain in a powder blue uniform, Anthony responded,

This will be a very unpopular play but the contrarian situation calls for a play on the big underdog. The first meeting this season took place in Cleveland and it was one of the most anticipated games of the early season for obvious reasons. Miami was able to easily take care of the Cavaliers in that game and since then, the Heat have been rolling while Cleveland has been sputtering. These are two teams clearly going in opposite directions but the spot signals Cleveland. The Cavaliers have lost eight straight games and only one of those was respectable, a five-point home loss against Chicago. We played Cleveland that game and cashed and there will be a similar effort tonight as the Cavaliers will be looking for some revenge against Miami after that earlier meeting. As far as the line goes, this is easily the biggest number Cleveland has seen this year and it is also the biggest number that Miami has been favored by as well. That signifies line value. Miami has won nine straight games and during this stretch, it has covered eight in a row which includes that win in Cleveland. The Heat were favored by 5.5 points in that game and now they are laying 12 points more in some shops which is too big of an overadjustment based on the switch in venues. With the way the teams have been playing, we are almost certain to see a Miami letdown in this one. There is no chance the Heat will be as energized as they were in the first meeting in Cleveland. The Cavaliers are also part of a solid contrarian situation. Play against favorites of 10 or more points after allowing 85 points or less and that are outscoring opponents by seven or more ppg going up against teams that are getting outscored by a seven or more ppg. This situation is 34-11 ATS (75.6 percent) since 1996. Miami has beaten up on the bad teams but because of the overpriced lines, they have not been covering as they are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games against teams with a winning percentage of less than .400. 10* (509) Cleveland Cavaliers

The Sixers have definitely started to play much better after a horrible start to the season. However, this is not a spot they should be laying points in, no matter the opposition. Philadelphia is just 1-10 on the road this season and only a couple of those games have been close as the Sixers have been outscored by an average of 7.4 ppg in those 11 road games. Making this spot even tougher is the fact that this is only the second road games in the eight games for Philadelphia, a run going back to November 27th. The Nets are certainly not playing very good but that rarely matters in this league as it is about situations and where the true value lies. The Nets have dropped seven straight games but the schedule has been absolutely brutal and going back further as well. New Jersey started the season with four straight home games but since then, 13 of its last 20 games have been on the road and this is the first time since October that the Nets are home for more than one consecutive game. While the majority of their recent games have been on the road, the caliber of teams the Nets have played has made it even more difficult. New Jersey has played the fifth toughest schedule in the NBA and they are tied with five other teams by playing 11 games against teams ranked within the top ten in the league. New Jersey is 0-11 in those games but a much more respectable 6-7 against the rest of the NBA. The Sixers have only played six games against the league top ten yet has just two more total wins. This is a revenge game for New Jersey, which lost by 16 points in Philadelphia earlier in the season, making it five straight losses in the series. The Sixers are on a potent ATS tear but that is what gives us the additional value and it should be noted that Philadelphia is 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as a road favorite and 3-10 ATS in their last 13 road games against teams with a losing home record. New Jersey meanwhile is 5-1 ATS in its last six games as a home underdog and 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings at home. 10*(702) New Jersey Nets

The Heat are rolling right now as they have won eight straight games while covering their last seven games. This is exactly what was supposed to happen to start the season but Miami got off to a slow start and it was due to obvious chemistry issues. It has since solved those issues and with Miami rolling, we are getting excellent value on the other side. The Heat were overpriced early, found some value during the slow start and are once again overpriced. At the start of the month, Miami was favored by 11 points over Detroit, which is 7-18 on the season, the third worst record in the Eastern Conference. Less than two weeks later, the Heat are favored by the same amount over a team that is 14-9, the sixth best record in the Western Conference. New Orleans got off to a very strong start and has since cooled off but it is still a solid team and one that Miami should once again have problems with. New Orleans defeated Miami in the first meeting this season. The Hornets are coming off a blowout loss on Sunday against the resurgent Sixers and that sets them up well here. They had lost three games by double-digits prior to yesterday and gone 2-1 the next time out and they are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a loss by 10 points or more. Yesterday

Orlando is coming off a horrible loss last night which was its third straight defeat after starting the season with only four losses through its first 19 games. I expect a huge effort tonight despite playing with no rest where the Magic are just 1-5 ATS on the season. The caveat to that is that Orlando has won four of its last five games outright with no rest but just has not covered. Three of those games came against inferior opposition where they were favored huge and the other was against Chicago where they were underdogs. Utah is coming off a blowout loss against Miami on Wednesday. I played against the Jazz in that game and I am playing against them again here for pretty similar reasons. The Heat were playing in a revenge situation from an earlier loss and Orlando will be doing the same tonight. Following the win over Miami, the Jazz went to Orlando the very next night and handed the Magic a double-digit loss so Orlando will be out to avenge that defeat tonight. Utah has won eight of its last 10 games with the only blemishes being a game against the Mavericks and the one against Miami last time out. During this recent 10-game run, only two wins have come against teams with winning records so the schedule has been pretty soft during this stretch. Making matters worse is the fact that Utah is banged up with three players questionable including Raja Bell and Andrei Kirilenko who are both likely gametime decisions tonight. After last night

The Sixers got off to a horrendous start this season but they have been turning it on of late as they look to continue to build some much needed confidence. Despite the 7-14 start through 21 games, Philadelphia has actually been one of the better ATS teams this season, one of only three teams in the NBA with a losing record that is in the top ten ATS standings. The home team is 16-5 in the Sixers 21 games this season which is standard for a lot of teams in this league. Boston is off to a 17-4 start which is the best record in the Eastern Conference by two games. The Celtics are coming off a blowout win last night against Denver but the Nuggets were without their player Carmelo Anthony so the victory was a little tarnished. Still, they have won eight straight games including three in a row on the road where they are 7-3 on the season. The public will be all over Boston once again here and that is causing a line that is overinflated. The Celtics are one of the oldest teams in the NBA and the results show that. They are a perfect 6-0 ATS when playing with two or more days of rest but they are just 6-8-1 ATS when playing with no rest or one day of rest. This includes a 2-3 ATS record in the second of a back-to-back set and that includes a 1-2 ATS mark when the second game is on the road. When that is the case and the first game was at home, Boston is 0-1 SU and ATS, losing in Cleveland after defeating Miami at home in the season opener. Philadelphia is 6-0 ATS in its last six games and 5-1 ATS this season against teams with a winning record. Meanwhile Boston is 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 games against teams with a winning percentage below .400 and 0-3-1 ATS in its last four games when its opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. As underdogs of fewer than eight points, the Sixers are 8-3 ATS. 10* (702) Philadelphia 76ers

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This is a great spot for Sacramento. We won a similar bet with the Clippers earlier this week and this one sets up just a good. The Mavericks have won eight straight games, covering seven of those including a big win at Utah last night. They look unstoppable, especially going up against the Kings who come in riding a seven-game losing streak and are 1-12 over their last 13 games. They lost to the Lakers last night as they were in a horrible spot with Los Angeles having lost four straight games heading into that one. Dallas is a perfect 3-0 ATS with no rest but this is the first instance this season with both back-to-back games coming on the road. Sacramento is 1-1 ATS with no rest but this is the first time that it has been at home during the second leg. This is easily the most points they have gotten at home this year and conversely, this is the most points Dallas has given on the road. The Kings fall into a great contrarian situation as well based on the recent runs. Play on underdogs that have failed to cover the spread in 12 or more of their last 15 games going up against an opponent that has covered five or six of their last seven games against the spread. This situation is 41-15 ATS (73.2 percent) since 1996. 10* (512) Sacramento Kings

This is a big game for Chicago. The Bulls will be at full strength for the first time this season if Carlos Boozer makes his highly anticipated debut for the Bulls, which looks to be the case. It could not have come at a better time with Orlando and Dwight Howard coming to town. Chicago is also looking for some retribution. Hard fouls by Howard sent Derrick Rose out of the Bulls' last two meetings with the Magic, which Orlando won by a combined 49 points. It is safe to say the Bulls want to return the favor. This is just the third time the Magic have been tested on the road this season and the first two were failures. They lost at Miami by 26 points and at San Antonio by nine points. The Magic

We cashed a ticket with the Pacers on Sunday as they defeated the Lakers outright to win their opener of this four-game roadtrip. Indiana has Utah up next which put it into a tough spot here of getting focused coming off a huge upset and facing another Western Conference power tomorrow. The Pacers have been red hot at the ticket window, going 5-1 ATS in their last six games and that provides value here. This is just the second time they have been road favorites and the first resulted in a 26-point loss in Philadelphia. The Kings continue to struggle but this is one of the best times to back them as they are a desperate team with a lot of line value on their side. They have dropped four straight games as the offense has been non-existent and while Sacramento has not been a very strong home underdog of late, those games mostly have been against the elite teams in the league. Indiana is not one of those teams. This is the fourth time this season the Kings have been home dogs, with the Lakers, Hornets and Bulls being the other three instances. The recent ATS runs on both sides gives us line value as mentioned and it also puts the Kings in a solid contrarian situation. Play on home underdogs that have failed to cover the spread in eight or more of their last 10 games, going up against an opponent after having covered the spread in five or six of their last seven games against the spread. This situation is 60-26 ATS (69.8 percent) since 1996. With the Lakers and Mavericks on deck Friday and Saturday, this is best opportunity for the Kings to break out. 10* Sacramento Kings

Both teams are coming off Sunday losses and Oklahoma City is in the better spot to rebound from its loss. The Thunder came up a point short in Houston last night and they have been a very solid bounceback team this season as they have won four straight games following a loss. Playing on no rest is also no problem for this young team as Oklahoma City is a perfect 3-0 ATS this season in the second of back-to-back games. This one is even stronger based on the fact this is the first one of the season at home. After a perfect 8-0 start to the season, New Orleans has slipped of late, going just 4-4 over its last eight games straight up and going 1-6-1 ATS in those contests. This includes a 2-3 record on the road and coming off their first home loss of the season, we don

We won against the Lakers on Friday in Utah and we will go against them again here. This is a very unusual and difficult scheduling situation for Los Angeles as it is coming off a one-game roadtrip at Utah two nights ago and then heads back on the road for another roadtrip at Memphis on Tuesday. Playing at home is always a good thing but in this case, the Lakers have little time to enjoy it. They were in a similar spot earlier this season at home against Phoenix sandwiched around two road games and lost to the Suns. The Pacers begin a four-game west coast roadtrip on Sunday following a disappointing overtime loss against Oklahoma City on Friday. Indiana is 7-7 on the season as it has been unable to get any sort of big run going but at the same time, it has not had any big runs going the other way as Indiana has lost consecutive games only once this season. Actually, the Pacers are 4-0 both straight up and against the number this season when coming off a home loss. The Lakers are 9-0 against the bottom half of the NBA but just 4-3 against the top 16 in the league and playing the 28th ranked schedule has certainly helped matters as well. As mentioned, the Pacers have responded well off a home loss and they are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall following a loss. Also they are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games against teams with a home winning percentage greater than .600. The Lakers meanwhile are 9-23 ATS after having won four of their last five games. 10* Indiana Pacers

We played on Miami last night and while it missed the cover by a bucket, it did pick up a much needed win to gain some confidence and momentum heading into this game. The Heat are on a dreadful 1-10 ATS run and while that may be fade material for some, it is a take sign here as that means the value lies with Miami, which is something we never thought would be the case this season. Miami has been an underdog only once this season and that came in Orlando in a big revenge situation. Dallas meanwhile is red hot right now with wins in four straight games including three of those coming on the road. This is no big surprise as the Mavericks have been a better road team than home team the last couple years. Dallas won in San Antonio last night which snapped the Spurs 12-game winning streak and while it is hard to say letdown with Miami up next, last night

We used the Hawks in a similar role a week ago tonight. They were coming off four straight losses and then had a win over Minnesota but it was not a very good victory. Atlanta headed to Indiana and pulled off a double-digit win and tonight, it heads to New Jersey following back-to-back home losses against the Mavericks and Celtics, the latter coming last night by 23 points. The Hawks have struggled against the better teams, going 1-5 against the top 16 but going 7-0 against the bottom half of the NBA. New Jersey returns home following a four-game roadtrip where it went 1-3 including losses in the final three games. The Nets played decent but they are still not quite to the point of winning against the elite teams. New Jersey is 4-3 against teams in its own category, 17th in the league or worse, but 0-6 against teams ranked within the top 16. Atlanta started the season 6-0 and while going 2-6 since, four of the losses came by five points or less and those were all against the top teams as mentioned. Atlanta swept the season series last year and all three games were blowout wins as the Hawks won by 23, 30 and 24 points. Granted the Nets are a better team this season but they are not that much improved the likely make this series closer. Atlanta was favored by seven points in the one meeting in New Jersey and the recent struggles have brought the line down significantly which adds a lot of value to the much stronger team. The Hawks are 5-1 on the road so winning away from home is not an issue. Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in its last five games as a road favorite while the Nets are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games as a home underdog of fewer than five points. Also, the Nets are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 home games coming off a road loss, losing those games by an average of 10 ppg. Atlanta meanwhile is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 road game when failing to cover the spread in four or five of its last six games. After a 1-5 run at home, hitting the road is just what the Hawks need. 10* Atlanta Hawks

I see a lot of value in the under in this matchup. The Hornets are coming off an ugly win at Sacramento last night and while the 146 points scored may not be helping this line, other factors negate that. New Orleans had gone over in four straight games prior to last night as the offense was clicking but that took a back seat last night. The defense is what has made the Hornets as strong as they are right now as they are allowing just 90.4 ppg on 42.5 percent shooting, second and first respectively in the league. The Clippers have gone over in five of their last six games but tonight they will see some defense, something has been hit to miss of late. Los Angeles have gone over 100 points in five of its last nine games but all of those came against teams ranked in the bottom half of the league in points allowed. The other four games where they averaged 88.4 ppg all came against teams in the top third of the league in defense. Basically the Clippers have played what the opposition allows and that will be the case again here. Six of the last seven and eight of the last 10 meetings in this series have gone over which tends to give us value going the other way. These teams played two weeks ago in New Orleans and the game went under 189.5 as 183 points were scored. Now just two weeks later, the posted total has gone up six points which is likely due to the recent results as talked about but this is too much of a jump in my opinion. The recent trade between the Hornets and Raptors will not affect the floe of the game as well. The under is 7-0 in the Hornets last seven games against teams with a winning percentage below .400 and the under is 22-10 in their last 32 games as a favorite between 5.0 and 10.5 points. Meanwhile the under 5-2 in the Clippers last seven games as an underdog between 5.0 and 10.5 points. 10* Under New Orleans Hornets/Los Angeles Clippers

I can

The linesmakers are saying one of two things here, maybe both. First, the Magic are better than Miami as they are favored by more than what Miami was favored by last night. Second, the 27-point loss by Phoenix needs to taken into consideration as it was a huge one. Well, I think both of these are false and Phoenix is the beneficiary. The public will see nothing but that loss last night against the Heat and fade the Suns again but we need to go the opposite way. We played against Phoenix last night and won in convincing fashion, as it was never in doubt. It was a situational play and that situation reverses tonight. We have to remember the Suns were playing some great basketball prior to last night as they had won five of their previous six including big road wins at Atlanta and Los Angeles. Against the Lakers, Phoenix made 22 three-pointers while last night, it made only five. I think both can be considered aberrations but will see a better effort from long range tonight. Orlando is coming off an easy win in its last game against Memphis as it won going away, leading by as many as 17 points and never trailing. That snapped a two-game home losing streak and it was the first

I think we see Atlanta snap out of its funk tonight. The Hawks had lost four straight games before winning Sunday at home against Minnesota. Yes it was a win but it was very unimpressive as they were outshot by the Timberwolves but were fortunate to get to the free throw line eight more times while converting 11 more attempts than the Timberwolves. With home games coming up against Dallas and Boston next, Atlanta will be focused for the win, especially seeing that the next game is not until Saturday. Indiana put up an incredible performance against the Nuggets a week ago tonight as it shot an unheard of 64.4 percent from the floor including 53.3 percent from long range. Like any big game, the Pacers came back with a dud, shooting 20 percent worse against Houston and then followed that up with a similar effort against the Cavaliers but ended up winning because Cleveland could not make anything. The Hawks are a much better shooting team and that will be the difference here. Atlanta leads the NBA in shooting as it is hitting 49.3 percent from the floor and this has not been a good matchup for the Pacers in the past. The Hawks have won the last six meetings in this series including a three-game sweep last season that saw them win by an average of 11 ppg. They can keep this up by doing a simple thing

The Hawks were absolutely pounded by Milwaukee on Wednesday as we cashed a very easy ticket on that one. The game was actually worse than the final score indicated as Atlanta trailed by 30 points at one point and made it look more respectable by cutting the gap in the fourth quarter during garbage time. That is now the third straight loss for the Hawks which has become a rarity for this team as they lost that many consecutive games only once all of last season. I expect a huge bounceback tonight. While Atlanta has been losing, the Jazz have been winning. They have won three straight games including the last two in Miami and Orlando which are both massive wins. Against the Heat, Utah overcame a 22-point deficit and sent the game into overtime on a last second tip-in and then pulled away in the extra session. The next night in Orlando, Utah overcame an 18-point deficit as it outscored the Magic 39-20 in the fourth quarter to win going away. Even with a day off, they cannot keep this up. There could be good news for the Hawks on the injury front as well as Mo Evans and Marvin Williams both could be back tonight. These are the only two small forwards on the team so putting together a workable rotation has been difficult Phoenix, Orlando and Milwaukee exposed Atlanta

The Lakers are just one of two remaining undefeated teams in the NBA and here is the biggest test of the young season. Los Angeles is 8-0 and are looking like a team on a three-peat mission however one look at the schedule tell us exactly why this team is where it is. The Lakers have played the 29th ranked schedule in the NBA and while winning is winning, winning over six teams with losing records usually isn

The Bucks won an easy game last night over the Knicks and the initial though is to fade Milwaukee tonight in the second of a back-to-back set. However, the back-to-back should not come into play here based on the fact that there was a shortage of minutes played by the starters so rest (and fatigue) will not be an issue. The Bucks started slow by going 1-3 in their first four games and while the fifth game was a loss at Boston, it seemed to shake the team and since then, they have been playing much better. The Hawks are coming off two straight losses and that is another reason the public is all over Atlanta in this game. Both games were four-point losses and they came against solid opposition in Phoenix and Orlando but tonight

The Nets are 2-4 and certainly better than last season, when it was widely acknowledged that their talent level was too good to finish with their woeful 12-70 record. New Jersey started the season with a 2-0 record but has since dropped its last four games but it is not overly surprising. Two of those losses came against Miami while another came against Orlando and a fourth was against Charlotte by just a bucket in a game it should have won. Cleveland is 3-3 and surprisingly, it is tied for first place in the NBA Central. The fact that the division leaders are at .500 shows the weakness of the conference and I don

We knew coming into the season that it was going to be a struggle for the Pistons as they were looking toward rebuilding a team that fell off in a big way last season. However, starting the season 0-5 was not expected but taking a closer look explains why. Detroit lost its opener at New Jersey while blowing a late lead and the next four games came against teams that will most likely be qualifying for the playoffs. The Pistons opposition has an overall record of 16-7 so they definitely have played a tough schedule despite the Bulls and Thunder getting off to slow starts. Meanwhile, the Bobcats are 1-3 to begin the year with the lone win coming at New Jersey two nights ago by a bucket. This is a talented team but one that has yet to show it can play together. On the road, the Bobcats are averaging only 86.3 ppg on 43.1 percent shooting. This is the first of two winnable home games for the Pistons prior to heading out west for a four-game roadtrip so these weekend games are pretty important. The last thing this team needs or wants is to remain winless. As for Charlotte, they head back home tomorrow night to take on Orlando and while a win is needed for the Bobcats as well, a peak ahead to that game is hard not to do. The big story in Detroit is the rift going on between players and head coach John Kuester, He called his locker room out for a lack of leadership and against Atlanta, Rodney Stuckey was benched. While things may go from bad to worse before they get better, this is the time to back this team as right now, pride is on the line. We look for the Pistons to pull together tonight and grab that first victory. Detroit is a perfect 5-0 ATS in its last five games against the NBA Southwest while the Bobcats are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games against the NBA Central. 10* Detroit Pistons

For a team that was supposed to make a possible run at the Lakers in the Western Conference, it certainly has not showed for the Thunder. Granted we are just four games in so there is no reason to panic. Oklahoma City is coming off its second straight blowout loss but that actually sets us up here. It seemed as last night was more of a lookahead or a look past of the Clippers and it obviously hit them where it hurts. Portland had a very successful roadtrip where it went 3-1 to improve to 4-1 on the season and it is making some early noise. We knew this was going to be a solid team and a big roadtrip is important early in the season but those four games were against the Clippers and three teams from the Eastern Conference. Not too take too much away from it, but it was not as challenging as it could have been. Kevin Durant had the worst perimeter shooting night of his young career as he went 0-10 from behind the arc and something tells me he shows up big time tonight.

This game has San Antonio written all over it and the public is certainly buying into it. The Spurs are coming off a home loss against New Orleans on Saturday after winning their opener against Indiana three nights earlier. This marks the first road game of the season for San Antonio and it is being asked to put down a big number which is never an easy task in this league. On top of it, the Spurs travel to Phoenix on Wednesday as they will be playing for revenge following last season

This is the home opener for the Knicks and they are getting a great price here. New York is coming off a loss last night in Boston and while this is the second game of a back-to-back set, it should not affect this team. It is early in the season so fatigue is far from an issue and also this team is young as the Knicks are the fifth youngest team in the league with an average age of just under 25 years old. There are a lot of new players on New York, including two rookies in the starting five, but I am not concerned in this spot. Portland is 2-0 on the season with a revenge win in its opener as well as a win against the Clippers the next night. The Blazers have had a lot of time to rest and that can actually be a problem here as momentum is hurt for than rest is needed. Even though they are winning, the Blazers have not been playing complete as they have outscored their first two opponents by 31 points in the fourth quarter but have been outscored overall in the first three quarters. A complete game from New York means an outright win. Portland has not started 3-0 since 1999-2000 and while this team is different than ones in years past, it is not an ideal spot. Is the wrong team favored here? It is a definite possibility. 10* New York Knicks

Toronto

It is just the third day of the NBA season but we have yet to see a line this big. Not even close. We are well aware of how good Orlando is and how many problems the Wizards had last season but Washington should be a much improved team this season. It may not show up in a playoff appearance but you will see a different team that focuses on fundamental basketball, hard work and playing together as a team. This line is based on last year

This is a good spot now but if it took place a few months down the road, depending on health and players leaving, it may not be nearly as good. However, because of what we have now, we will run with it. Denver is a tricky team to predict because we simply do not know how long the current pieces will be in place, namely Carmelo Anthony. Chances are he will be traded by February or March which could mean a strong start but a weak finish but that is not our concern here. The Nuggets will be looking to win early and often and they start right off with a game against a team that knocked them out of the playoffs a season ago. Utah took out Denver four games to two in the first round of the playoffs before it was knocked out in the second round by the eventual NBA Champion Lakers. The Nuggets did win two of the three home meetings in the series and during the season overall, they won four of the five meetings with the wins coming by an average of 10.8 ppg and all being by seven or more. The Jazz should be in decent shape this season despite losing Carlos Boozer as they got Al Jefferson as a replacement and in the long haul, it should be an upgrade. They are not at full strength however as Mehmet Okur will be out for a couple more months because of an Achilles injury while a starter currently falling into the questionable-health category is Raja Bell, who is recovering from bursitis of the left rotator cuff. He will play but is not at 100 percent. Anthony will once again play a big part against Utah as he did last season. Anthony averaged a career-playoff high 30.7 ppg while grabbing 8.7 rpg and shooting 46.4 percent from the field. He simply matches up well against the Jazz and even he is glad for the chance to play the Jazz. He said early in the week that he is excited about opening against division rival Utah.

This is one of the best scenarios to go against on opening night. It is banner night in Los Angeles and we know what that means. The Lakers will be lowering their 2009-10 NBA Championship banner along with getting their rings on Tuesday on opening night and playing a basketball game is not at the forefront for the players right now. This is a huge night and with that comes a lot of distractions. Added to that, the reigning champions are a huge public play and with that come an overinflated line. The Lakers enter the season banged up as well. Kobe Bryant, who had offseason surgery on his right knee, said he was "comfortable" playing 30 minutes and head coach Phil Jackson doesn't anticipate playing him much more than that. Jackson said he is eyeing a comeback for Andrew Bynum around Thanksgiving while Luke Walton aggravated his strained right hamstring Friday and is doubtful. Walton's absence could mean more time for second-round draft pick Devin Ebanks. As for the Rockets, last season was a nightmare but they figure to be significantly improved from last season

I

As good as this series has been in my opinion, we have yet to see a game decided by fewer than six points through the first five games which is very surprising. This is even more surprising considering both of the regular season meetings were decided by a single point. I do not play the due theory but we are overdue for a classic finish and that definitely favors the underdog. That is far from the reason for this pick however as the basis is all about the value involved because of what the public is going to be doing here. The Lakers are down a game and have their backs against the wall and because of that, this is a

We have cashed all four games in the Finals thus far as we have gone the alternating route or the bounceback option as the Lakers and Celtics have alternated wins through the first four games. I am going to buck this trend on Sunday as the Celtics, who played solid in desperation time, will have to once again dig deep to avoid going down a game and needing to win the final two games in Los Angeles to win the championship. The best part about the Game Four win was that it was the Celtics bench that was the difference as the Boston starting five played well below average. That means it is rebound time for those starters as they knew they were bailed out. As was the case for Game Three, the Game Four plan is to have at least two of the three

As we have seen so far in this NBA Finals, it has been a series of bounce backs through the first three games. Boston was able to gain home court after a split in Los Angeles and then the Lakers reclaimed it by winning in Boston on Tuesday. I see the same trend continuing on Thursday as the desperation will be there for the Celtics to avoid going into a 3-1 hole. In Game Three Boston jumped ahead early but the Lakers made a big run and never gave the lead back even though it was dicey for a while. Boston clawed back into the game and if not for some clutch shots down the stretch, the Celtics could have pulled off the late comeback but Los Angeles was able to pull away. Taking a look at the boxscore and the game was relatively even with the only real Lakers advantages being at the free throw line and rebounding. Those are obviously two huge aspects of the game but they only have slight advantages and were not dominant. One huge mystery for Boston was Ray Allen. He was coming off a masterful performance in Game Two, a game in which the Celtics probably would not have won if it weren

It is now time for the Lakers to return the favor in Boston for Game Three. The Celtics evened the series at a game apiece and grabbed home court in the process with the next three games being played on their homecourt to add to it. I was on Boston in Game Two and was not surprised with an outright win following the lethargic effort it put forth in Game One. The Celtics had two big edges on Sunday and those were unheard of three-point shooting as well as foul trouble on the other side. Ray Allen could not be stopped from long range as he went 8-11 behind the arc while as a team the Celtics shot 68.8 percent from three-point land. We won

Based on the bounce, the zig-zag or whatever you want to call it, I expected this line to be lower than what we had on Thursday. Reason being is that the tendency is for bettors to go the other way and back the losing team of Game One and thus, the linesmakers have adjusted over the last few years because of this. With this game not until Sunday, the number may still go down but there is a lot of value out there in my opinion. We cashed on the Lakers in that opener and a lot of the thinking behind it was simple motivation. That was based on the 2008 Finals and how it ended when the Celtics won the final game by 39 points and then the team bus was practically vandalized. Now the motivation goes the other way and despite still being on the road, Boston will keep this one a lot closer. The Celtics seemed very out of sorts in Game One as the emotion seemed to be lacking but you can guarantee that it will pick up on Sunday. It is pretty public knowledge at this point that Phil Jackson is 47-0 in series when he wins the first game. Boston is well aware as it was brought up by many reporters after the game during interviews but that is not affecting how the players are taking the rest of the series. It is just adding fuel to the fire and the Celtics have some historical advantages as well. Boston is 4-2 in playoff series that opened with a loss and, more to the point, 3-1 against the Lakers in the NBA Finals after an opening game loss. And that Jackson 47-0 record does not include any series against the Celtics. The other good thing about Boston staying in Los Angeles is the bulletin board material it will read about for the two days leading up to the game. Going through the LA papers and you will see numerous quotes and stories about how Boston was soft, looked old and played with no effort. Boston is 9-1 ATS coming off a double-digit road loss the last two years and coming off a bad defensive effort where it allowed 100 or more points, Boston is 5-0 ATS the last five following up games. Don

The first game of this series is a big one for both sides for obvious reasons especially with the way the series is formatted. With it being a 2-3-2 series, the dynamics are different but the home court advantage team still has the edge, winning 19 of the 26 series since the 2-3-2 format came into play in 1985. Los Angeles has the experience of knowing how important Game One is the last two years. They have been in this position the last two years as they were at home last season and won against the Magic in the opener by 25 points and went on to win the series. They had to start on the road in the NBA Finals against Boston two years ago, lost by 10 points and lost the series. Los Angeles is 8-0 at home in the playoffs, going 5-3 ATS and while Boston has played exceptional on the road, the Lakers have a big intangible in their corner and that is revenge. Even though it was two years ago and four regular season games have been played since, the Lakers have not forgotten the last game in the Finals between the two when the Celtics won the championship by taking the final game by 39 points. That is still going to be in the minds of the players and that will play a big part in the focus of the team. The Lakers also feel they are better prepared this time around as opposed to the 2008 NBA Finals. While the Lakers were beaten pretty badly in the 2008 Finals, they can draw some positives from it. Los Angeles did not know what was coming at them two years ago but that won

This has come down to be a must win situation for Phoenix as another loss and it is done for the season. I am not a huge proponent of these must win scenarios simply because the linesmakers adjust for them and also because the opposing team isn

Can the city of Boston be in for another playoff meltdown? After the Bruins blew a 3-0 series lead, the Celtics are halfway home to doing the same thing which would make them the first NBA ever to give up such a series lead. It is still far from a done deal but the Celtics, which looked so dominant the first three games of this series, are in some serious jeopardy right now in this pressure filled game. Yes, it is a must win game for Orlando but the Magic are not feeling the pressure and playing loose has proven to be the correct ingredient. I mentioned in the Game Five analysis that the Magic have history on their side and they are using that to their advantage. Orlando is in a nearly identical situation from a year ago and that is trailing three games to two against the Celtics. Obviously Orlando was able to capitalize and win the series and it has that positive history on its side to look back on and show that it is far from out of it. The other advantage that Orlando has is momentum. We have seen it throughout the playoffs and as recently as last night with the Suns. The best thing right now for Orlando is the one day gap in-between games as it can keep that momentum rolling. Boston comes into this game severely banged up and while none of the star players are hurt, the role players have taken a hit. Down low, Glen Davis and Rasheed Wallace were hit with a concussion and back injury while guard Marquis Daniels also suffered a concussion. This is a huge concern for the depth of Boston especially down low and it was fortunate, although it was the right call, that the second technical foul issued to Kendrick Perkins in Game Five was rescinded and he is able to play. Orlando has won three of the four meetings played in Boston this season so winning there is far from a problem and it has proven that this spot has been one of the best as it is 11-3 ATS in road games following a double-digit home win. The road team and the underdog are both 8-2 ATS in the last 10 games in this series and we see that continue tonight. 10* Orlando Magic

Based on the fact that the home team has won and covered the first four games of this series, it comes as no surprise that the public is going to be all over the Lakers tonight. Don

We saw some new life out of Orlando on Monday as it was able to steal a game in Boston and extend the series at least one more game. Momentum plays a big role in this league and the situation tonight calls for that momentum to stick around on the Magic sidelines. We saw it last night with Phoenix as a huge win Sunday was capitalized into another huge win on its home floor on Tuesday and momentum played a big role in that. Only one day of rest in-between helped and Orlando is facing that here which is a bonus in my opinion. Many thought this series was over after three games but I thought we would see the real Magic team show up for Game Four and they did. I do expect Orlando to digress now as a win here sends the series back to Boston and puts it in a nearly identical situation from a year ago and that is trailing three games to two against the Celtics. Obviously Orlando was able to capitalize and win the series and it has that positive history on its side to look back on and show that it is far from out of it. As far as line value, we have that on our side as well as the first two games saw the Magic laying -6.5 and -7 at home and now they are laying a bucket less. This is another indication of the linesmakers believing it is over as well as the public thinking it is over as even with the smaller line, a huge majority of the public action is on the Celtics tonight. I mentioned in the Game Four analysis that playing for pride is a big thing in this league and no team, especially one with such high expectations, wants to get swept so if there was a game Orlando wants to show up in, this was the one. The pride continues as the Magic do not want to lose this series in front of their home fans where they are 38-9 on the season. Orlando is 13-0 ATS after a win by six points or less this season and it is 6-0 in its last six games as a favorite of fewer than five points. Both of those angles give Orlando incredible value here simply based on the fact that this is the lowest line it has seen at home since March 7th against the Lakers. 10* Orlando Magic

We get value on the home team in Game Four because of the line adjustment made due to compensate for zig zag backers that play the losing team of the last game this time around. The theory makes sense in a lot of way especially seeing how the losing team may be the more desperate team in need of a win but in this case, it still falls to Phoenix. The Suns, even though they are down just 2-1, can tie the series with a win but are still at the disadvantage as they go back to Los Angeles without a home court edge. The one day off in-between is very important here in my opinion. The Lakers had only one day off between their first two wins and then three days off killed their momentum. The momentum has shifted and the Suns can ride that into Tuesday without extra days taking that away. We saw on Sunday night what Phoenix is capable of and anyone that had written this team off after the first two games was sadly mistaken. The Suns were one of the hottest teams entering the postseason and after easily taking out the Blazers and Spurs, the latter in a sweep, this team was expected to give the Lakers fits. They no doubt still can in my opinion. If Amare Stoudamire plays the way he did in Game Four like he did last game and not the first two, the Lakers are going to have their hands full again despite having thought to have the edge inside. The play of Robin Lopez, Steve Nash and the zone defense all played big parts but it came down to Stoudamire and if his heart and focus is there, he really won

Game Three was the must win game for Orlando and it did not even come close to competing. Because of that, the linesmakers have made a huge adjustment knowing that the public is going to be on Boston Monday to sweep the series. No NBA team has ever come back from a 3-0 deficit in a playoff series and there certainly is not a lot of confidence in Orlando to buck that history trend. The Magic must capture Game Four on Monday night to avoid being swept, a depressing prospect for a team that ran off 59 regular-season wins and won its first eight games of the postseason. Do I think Orlando can come back and win this series? Probably not. I say probably only because a win here gets them back home where they could come within two games and who knows. I do think if any team is capable of doing it, it is Orlando as it has the makeup of a team that can make a run. Last season, the Magic made it to the NBA Finals so they have the experience and they also have the experience of a comeback as they trailed Boston 3-2 last year and came back to win the series. The Celtics were without Kevin Garnett so they were a different team but that series lost is still in their heads and that could be a mental downfall come later on. For now, we are concerned about this game only and if Orlando shows up, which it has not done so far, it can extend this series. Playing for pride is a big thing in this league and no team, especially one with such high expectations, wants to get swept so if there is a game Orlando wants to show up in, this is the one. The first two losses in this series were close ones and the blowout loss last time out even adds more motivation to the table. Orlando is 17-4 ATS coming off a road loss by 10 points or more over the last three seasons and it is 14-4 ATS revenging a loss of 10 points or more over the last two seasons. Boston meanwhile is 9-21-1 ATS in its last 31 games following a win by 10 points or more. This is a much bigger line and the Celtics are just 3-11 ATS in their last 14 playoff games as a favorite between 5.0 and 10.5 points. 10* Orlando Magic

Today

The road team has dominated this series all season including both playoff games obviously but the home team will change that tonight. The Celtics have a chance to put Orlando into an insurmountable hole while the Magic are in a must win situation so it needs to be figured out which team wants it more. At this point, I firmly believe it is Boston who is the more motivated team. Orlando is saying all of the right things about how winning in Boston is not impossible, especially considering it did it twice during the regular season, but the Magic have to be hurting right now knowing they just dropped two games at home and history is not on their side. The Celtics have never blown a 2-0 lead in a best-of-seven series while the Magic have never come back after losing the first two games. Coming into the playoffs, it seemed as though Orlando was peaking at the right time and even more so after sweeping the first two series

The lines are usually adjusted in the playoffs to actually give more value to the team that won and that is to thwart the players who still go after the losing team based on the zig-zag theory. I use this term a lot because it used to be a sound system in the NBA Playoffs and we have to look at ways to go about using this to out advantage even though it no longer is a successful system, But that does not mean we can try and figure out what the linesmakers are thinking the public is going to be on. This theory basically used to say to bet the loser of the previous game in the next game but linesmakers have caught up to this rationale in recent years as you will see that the line in the second game is usually lower even if the home team won that previous game in the series. However in the case of the Suns, the line is actually higher for them which is very rare. Take note that the first game of the first two series for the Lakers was won by Los Angeles and the Game Two line came in a point and a half lower. Now we are seeing the line going the other direction and a lto of that is based on the pure dominance that the Lakers showed. So now we get line value and the fact that we get to play against a team that looked like a champion in Game One. The Lakers shot an incredible 58 percent from the floor and I can guarantee that isn

We cashed a ticket in Game One of this series with the Celtics on Sunday and conventional thinking is to back the Celtics again considering the line is even higher this time around. Normally the zig-zag benefits the road team in Game Two since it usually loses and in this case the higher line lessens the value of Orlando according to the public but in my opinion, the value is more on the side of the Magic. The line is higher and that is putting the money on Boston but let

Both Phoenix and Los Angeles are coming off sweeps in the last round so both have had a lot of rest heading into the Western Conference Finals so while trying to find an edge in that regard is pretty much a non-factor. However, the long layoff may have been more beneficial to the Lakers to get their numerous bumps and bruises time to rest and heal. The Lakers went from struggling against Oklahoma City in the Conference Quarters to completely dominating the Jazz in the Conference Semis and that momentum is just what they need in facing the Suns. They were able to take three of the four meetings this season against Phoenix but three of those took place before the New Year so the history there is tough to go by. What we can look at is past playoff history and that provides the Lakers with a big motivational edge and even more so in Game One to be able to get out to a good start. The Suns knocked off Kobe Bryant and the Lakers in the first round in 2006 in seven games. The next year, the Suns dismissed the Lakers in five games. Afterward, Bryant demanded the Lakers make moves to upgrade their roster.

The Celtics find themselves in a tough situation here for Sunday and I think that is getting a lot of the public on the home team. I do not think this situation is bad at all. They are coming off a big series win against the Cavaliers but they have had time to rest, with three days in-between, so any sort of emotional letdown is not in effect. On the other side, Orlando has yet to lose a playoff game, going a perfect 8-0 thus far, and it is clearly the hottest team in the league right now. While that may seem like a good option to back, it provides value no the other side. Orlando has had a lot of time off, six days to be exact, and while it helped the Magic against the Hawks, it is not a big thing here. They have big mismatches all over the floor against Atlanta but they do not get those same advantages against the Celtics. Orlando won three of four games against Boston this season, but hasn't seen the Celtics since their last meeting on February 7th. The Celtics are clearly a different team, being much healthier at the top of the list, and also different from the team that lost to the Magic in seven games in the Eastern Conference Semifinals a season ago. The last meeting in Orlando had the Magic favored by 3.5 points and now the line has gone up significantly. Boston is 12-4-1 ATS in its last 17 playoff games as an underdog while the road team and the underdog has covered five straight in this series. 10* Boston Celtics

History is definitely on the side of the Celtics in this series. Of the 154 NBA playoff series that sat at 3-2, over 83 percent of those teams with the series lead have gone on to win the series. Of those 154, Boston has been in on the right side of the 3-2 lead 32 times and is a near perfect 31-1 in taking home the series. There is a slight history problem however as that one loss came last season. The Celtics were in a similar situation as they were up 3-2 against Orlando and they had the luxury of knowing a potential Game Seven would be at home. They lost Game Six in Orlando and then were walloped in Game Seven by 19 points. That shows that the better teams can actually come back and that alone is going to give Cleveland a little extra incentive. Watching Game Five raised a lot of questions. The biggest obviously surrounded LeBron James in that in one of the biggest games of the season, he put up arguably one of his smallest efforts. I expected him to bounce back from his mediocre Game Four effort but he went the other way. What can we expect in Game Six? Arguments are being made both ways but I see a similar effort like we saw in Game Three where he scored 38 points and basically won the game in the first quarter. Cleveland has lost back-to-back games by double-digits for the first time since 2007 so this is definitely a rare occurrence. If pride doesn

After last night

Utah lost Game Three and it is now in a hole that no other team has been able to overcome as teams are 0-89 in their NBA Playoffs

There was absolutely no value on San Antonio in Game Three as it was favored by seven points which I think was unheard of considering it was the seventh seed playing the third seed. The reason the Suns were not a play was simply because the desperation factor of San Antonio was unknown and if strong enough, it would have negated any sort of line value that it was against. Obviously that desperation was not strong enough as the Spurs were humbled at home to drop to 0-3 in the series and now it is really desperation time. Basically, the Spurs can toss in the towel along with the Hawks and Jazz as no team has ever come back from a 3-0 series deficit in the NBA and I doubt that is going to change this season. That doesn

This game sets up very similar to the Suns/Spurs game last night although I think this time around the results will be different. There was absolutely no value last night in San Antonio as the seventh seed was a huge favorite over the third seed but tonight we get more value in the fifth seed over the first seed as this line is more in line where it should be. Because of the must-win tag that has been put on Utah, the line is probably a point more than it should be based on the first two lines in this series coupled with the venue change. In my opinion however there is still a lot of value on the Jazz. They went 32-9 at home this season, winning 11 more games than they did on the road. The home/road disparity was even more pronounced by only five other teams in the NBA. The Jazz additionally can take comfort in being back home, having won all three games in Utah against Denver in the first round and going back to a February 22 loss to Atlanta, the Jazz have won 13 of their last 14 games at EnergySolutions Arena. Getting the Jazz even more charged up is the fact that there has been plenty of bulletin board material thrown out there that Utah does not have a chance in this series at all. Granted only 14 of 223 teams in league history have come back to win a seven-game series after losing the first two games but we are more concerned about just this game. One writer at the Los Angeles Times wondered if the Lakers really need to go through the formality of winning four games to advance.

Momentum is very big in this league and right now the Celtics have it in this series as they are coming off a win in Cleveland that tied the series at 1-1 and gave Boston home court advantage. However, while that win was big, the Celtics were hurt the most with the extended time off between Game Two and Game Three as any momentum gained may have been taken away with the days of rest. You would think an aging team like the Celtics would cherish this extended time but they are just 3-6 ATS this season when playing with three or more days of rest and this followed a 1-3 ATS mark last season. Playing every other day is what Boston needed to keep the Cavaliers back on their heels but now that Cleveland has had three off days to vent, it will be ready Friday night. The rest was beneficial to both sides for LeBron James and Kevin Garnett to heal up but the latter is questionable going into Friday and his absence would be a big blow following his identical 18-point, 10-rebound performances in the first two games. The season series is now split at three games apiece so it will be argued by some that Boston has Cleveland

Call me crazy to back the Hawks again after getting absolutely annihilated on Tuesday but I am going that way again. Atlanta looked good for the first 14 minutes against Orlando and then the bottom fell out. The Hawks suffered their worst ever playoff loss and one of he worst ones in recent years but I see a big bounceback here. The line remains the same which is very rare for a Game Two in the playoffs as the line tends to come back down following a loss to counter the bettors who go after the losing team after that defeat. This time however it has not changed and while the line easily could have gone the other way based on the 43-point margin, I feel there is still value with the Hawks. Atlanta was in a very similar situation a season ago as it is now. After losing their first game in Miami in the Conference Quarters by 31 points, the Hawks came back in Game Four and won in Miami by 10 points two nights later. Orlando is definitely aware of this however but I can

We won with the Suns in Game One and we come back with Phoenix again tonight as the zig zag theory, once a very popular betting proposition in the NBA playoffs, has given us value in the home team. This theory basically used to say to bet the loser of the previous game in the next game but linesmakers have caught up to this rationale in recent years as you will see that the line in the second game is usually lower even if the home team won that previous game in the series. We tend to see roughly a point to a point and a half line dip to the next game, which is the case here but when a line drops from say -8 to -6.5, that is one thing, but when it drops from -4 to -2.5, that is totally different. The lower that the line started and finished, the greater the percentage becomes in value for the home team. In this case it is a 37.5 percent drop for the Suns. In addition, it puts the line under a possession which is always a big key number in hoops. The Game One win was a big one for Phoenix as it put it a step closer to getting the San Antonio money off its back as the Spurs have ousted the Suns the last four times they have met in the postseason, the last coming in the first round in 2008. Phoenix feels it is better equipped this season to turn it around. The difference from the last go around in 2008 is that Phoenix now has the home court advantage and that is obviously a big factor in the playoffs. Losing Game Two means San Antonio has home court advantage and takes all of the wind out of the Suns sails making Game One almost meaningless. With the 111 points scored Monday, Phoenix is now 48-8 (42-14 ATS) including 4-0 ATS against the Spurs, when scoring 106 or more points. San Antonio is now 11-24 ATS in its last 35 games revenging a road loss while Phoenix improved to 15-4 ATS in its 19 games against Southwest Division opponents this season. 10* Phoenix Suns

We lost a tough one with the Lakers Sunday as a late foul and two free throws from Utah cost us at least a push. We come back with Los Angeles again tonight as the zig zag theory, once a very popular betting proposition in the NBA playoffs, has given us value in the home team. This theory basically used to say to bet the loser of the previous game in the next game but linesmakers have caught up to this rationale in recent years as you will see that the line in the second game is usually lower even if the home team won that previous game in the series. Granted, it did not pan out well for Cavalier backers last night but I believe this situation is a lot different based on the dominance of the Lakers in this series at home. They have won 15 straight meetings while going 11-4 ATS in those games. Only three of those 15 wins were by single-digits with the average margin of victory being 12.7 ppg. The Jazz showed their struggles in Denver in the first round despite winning one of the three games played there and going back a ways, they have struggled in this spot going 5-16-1 ATS in their last 22 games as road underdogs between 5.0 and 10.5 points. Kobe Bryant has scored 31 and 32 points the last two games after coming off efforts of 12 and 13 points and Bryant says he is encouraged with the way he feels and that has spiked his confidence. And that means bad news for the Jazz. I also expect the Lakers second unit to do a better job tonight after it gave up the lead in the fourth quarter on Sunday. They were called out afterward by teammates and head coach Phil Jackson who said he was very disappointed in the effort. The Lakers also fall into a great situation as well. Play against underdogs that are coming off a cover as an underdog but lost straight up, in a game involving two teams with winning percentages between .600 and .750. This situation is 44-12 ATS (78.6 percent) since 1996. 9* Los Angeles Lakers

This game not only offers exceptional value for the Hawks but it favors them in this spot by a wide margin in my opinion. Looking at the regular season, Orlando won the season series 3-1 with those three wins being relatively easy blowouts. That is going too put a lot of people on Orlando based on the head-to-head advantage but it needs to be looked at in more detail. Looking at the two games in Orlando, the Magic were favored by 3.5 and 5.5 points and now the number has jumped considerably. This is largely in part to Orlando having swept the Bobcats in the opening round plus the fact that it is riding a 10-game winning streak and going back further, being 24-3 over its last 27 games. That is impressive to say the least. However, I am a big believer in momentum and Orlando has lost a lot of that seeing it has sat for eight days following that Game Four victory over the Bobcats. Atlanta is playing on just a day of rest but the Game Seven win was a big momentum booster and it ended up being a game that was far from tough so a lot of energy was not even used. The Hawks won the final meeting of the regular against Orlando and even though that was in Atlanta, the Hawks will have some confidence following losses against the Magic in six straight meetings dating back to last season. There is no doubt that rest is good in this league this late in the season but too much rest can be a detriment and that is the case with the Magic. The Hawks are a perfect 4-0 ATS this season as underdogs of six points or more and 7-1 ATS as underdogs of five points or more. They are also 15-6 ATS this season coming off a double-digit home win and 12-2 ATS on the season when playing teams with a winning percentage greater than .700. 10* Atlanta Hawks

Phoenix was able to get by the injury riddled Blazers in six games and it now faces a playoff nemesis. The Spurs have ousted the Suns the last four times they have met in the postseason, the last coming in the first round in 2008. You could call it a mental thing, a matchup thing or a combination of both but Phoenix feels it is better equipped this season to turn it around. The difference from the last go around in 2008 is that Phoenix now has the home court advantage and that is obviously a big factor in the playoffs. The Spurs upset the second seeded Mavericks in the Conference Quarterfinals so they are obviously playing some good hoops as well. They only won one of the three games played in Dallas and they lost both meetings in Phoenix during the regular season. One big factor for Phoenix is Amare Stoudemire who has given the Spurs a lot of problems. He has scored 28, 41 and 29 against San Antonio this season and over the last three playoff series, he has averaged 28.8 ppg and 31.7 in the series without Shaquille O'Neal in 2008. Similar to the Portland series, tempo will be a factor and if the Suns get the offense going, they will be near impossible to beat. When scoring 106 or more points, they are 47-8 (41-14 ATS) including 3-0 ATS against the Spurs, so putting up a ton of points is the way to win. It is rare for Phoenix to allow teams to miss the century mark but in the 25 games it has done so, it is 23-2 (21-3-1 ATS). The Suns are 16-5 ATS this season against top teams with a winning percentage between .600 and .700. Both teams are well rested here and while you would think that favors the Spurs, it doesn

The Lakers are coming off a tougher than expected series against Oklahoma City and it is imperative they get off to a strong start in the conference semifinals. Los Angeles won the first two meetings against the Thunder at home but both were closer than expected and that led to the Lakers losing both of the first two road games at Oklahoma City. The Lakers are well aware of how good Utah is on its home floor so they cannot afford any sort of slip up at the Staples Center, especially in Game One when the momentum could shift to the Jazz for the entire series. Los Angeles took three of four from Utah, with the lone loss coming in Salt Lake City and that was a big revenge game for the Jazz which three nights before lost in Los Angeles by 24 points. Speaking of game in Los Angeles, the Lakers have absolutely dominated this series at home of late, winning 14 straight meetings while going 11-3 ATS in those games. Only two of those 14 wins were by single-digits with the average margin of victory being 13.3 ppg. The Jazz showed their struggles in Denver in the first round despite winning one of the three games played there and going back a ways, they have struggled in this spot going 4-16-1 ATS in their last 21 games as road underdogs between 5.0 and 10.5 points. The Lakers have been far from efficient following wins but this one is different as it is a brand new series and that means a lot in the conference. The Lakers have taken out Utah in each of the last two postseasons, both coming in five games, so this is certainly nothing new and the result here won

This one is filled with line value. The Hawks are favored by 9.5 points in most shops and that is the highest they have been favored by in any game against Milwaukee this season. In my opinion, that should not be the case in a series that has gone the distance as well as the fact that Milwaukee has already won in Atlanta once this season. The Bucks had a chance to win this series on their home floor but picked the worst time to play one of their worst games of the season as they shot a miserable 32.9 percent from the floor while scoring a season-low 69 points. Milwaukee can sulk and prepare for the worst or once again come out and play hard and try to steal another win. At worst, a tight game either way means a win for our ticket. The plan is pretty simple actually and that is they just need to make some shots. Either way, it

At first glace you see that Boston and Cleveland split the regular season series at two games apiece but that really doesn

We were able to win at home with the Nuggets on Wednesday and Denver once again needs to win to extend this series. Playing in Denver is one thing for the Nuggets but playing on the road is a different matter so we have to ask if this team is capable of winning a huge road playoff game. I do not think so, especially with their center sitting on the sidelines as Nene is out with a sprained knee and he was having a solid series before that Game Five injury. This has only added to the severe lack of depth for Denver up front and with two days to prepare for this, I give Utah coach Jerry Sloan an enormous advantage over Denver interim coach Adrian Dantley. The coaching edge was already there but in a situation like this, it is only stronger. With George Karl coaching, the Nuggets beat the Jazz three out of four during the regular season. The Game Five win for Denver was obviously a huge one but it was not the win I thought would take place as I thought the Nuggets would take care of business from the start and coast with an easy win. Instead it took a late 13-2 run to pull away and even that was a surprise considering the Nuggets had a 42-25 advantage in free-throw attempts, making 14 more of those. Even with two of its starters out, the Jazz have been the better team in the series for two reasons. It has played together, and it has strong leadership from the bench. They played their worst game of the series and still had a chance late in the fourth quarter to win. Utah is 17-4 ATS following a road loss this season including 9-1 ATS off a double-digit road loss. Denver meanwhile is just 9-18 ATS this season following a double-digit win. 9* Utah Jazz

We won with the Lakers in Game Five as they were able to finally run away with a game and take a 3-2 series lead. The home team has won all five games thus far and I think that finally comes to an end tonight. As good as Oklahoma City has played in this series, I think any sort of looseness that it may have had is now gone and the pressure squarely falls on their shoulders. I simply cannot see the top seed in the Western Conference being taken to seven games in the first round and Los Angeles will make sure that does not happen. This game sets up a lot like the Phoenix game from last night where we cashed a ticket on the Suns. The higher seed was able to capture Game Five at home and that is a huge advantage and it almost deflated the opposing team. The team that wins Game Five in a series that is tied ends up taking the series 83 percent of the time and we can add Phoenix to those statistics now. The Lakers that we saw on Tuesday is one that we expected some time ago but was in hibernation for too long. They absolutely dominated the game from the start in every phase while building a 32-point lead and coasting in. Kobe Bryant got some needed rest while big men Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum went a combined 18-26 from the floor and showed the big edge Los Angeles has in the paint and it will need to continue that. This one comes down to the Lakers focus and state of mind as they clearly showed that the Thunder do not belong on the same court. Now it is just a matter of not letting up and that will be the case tonight. 10* Los Angeles Lakers

Milwaukee is getting absolutely no respect in this series and it is not only because this is a must win game for the Hawks. Atlanta went from a -7.5-point favorite to a 9-point favorite in its last two home games and in game in Milwaukee, it went from +1 to -2 and is now -2 once again. Yes it is a must win game for the Hawks but that certainly does not mean it is going to happen. This team is solid but they have no matchup advantages here and this has pretty much been shown throughout the season series. The last game for Atlanta is completely frustrating as it blew a 13-point lead and was on the wrong end of a late 14-0 run and while that was two nights ago, that is going to have lingering effects. Right now all of the pressure is on the Hawks, who have won just one road postseason game in the last three appearances and had their 14-game home winning streak snapped. Milwaukee was not a very strong road team during the regular season and it is now 19-25 away from home and the Hawks are not much better on the road either, going 19-24 after that last loss. Milwaukee is 11 games better at home than Atlanta is on the road and that is simply not being taken into consideration once again. It can be argued that if Milwaukee can win on the road, Atlanta can as well. Sure it can but I don

A week ago, Portland was feeling pretty good about itself. It had stolen a game in Phoenix and headed home with the series split at one game apiece and took over the home court advantage. Now just seven days later, the Blazers are on the brink of elimination making this a must win situation. That is going to put a lot of pressure on them and I just don

We won with Dallas on Tuesday as the Mavericks kept their season alive with an easy home win over San Antonio. I am sticking with Dallas once again as I believe they finally breakthrough in San Antonio after two close calls. The Mavericks lost the two games by a combined seven points while missing the cover by a half-point in each game. In reality, this series could already be over or at the very least, Dallas being the team possessing the 3-2 series lead. The gameplan is pretty simple for Dallas and that is to score points by keeping the game at a quicker pace. It is easier said than done of course but the Mavericks did it in Game Five and they now must translate that to the road. Something has to give in San Antonio for this Dallas team as there are two conflicting streaks here. The Mavericks were the best road team in the NBA this season with a 27-14 record but the playoff road run has been horrid as they have a 2-15 road record in the playoffs since taking a 2-0 lead against Miami in the 2006 NBA Finals. They know better than to get rattled in a road setting. Truth be told, they handled the situations well in Games Three and Four in San Antonio, but lapsed just long enough to get beat in a couple of close games. Dallas simply needs to carry over what it did in Game Five and that is once again play with a sense of urgency. Dallas outrebounded San Antonio by 11, its largest margin of the series. The Mavericks totaled 21 blocks and steals, easily their highest total of the series and they consistently attacked the basket instead of settling for jumpers and wound up shooting 33 free throws and totaling 20 assists. San Antonio is just 10-23 revenging a road loss over the last two seasons and Dallas is a perfect 5-0 ATS in its last five games following a double-digit win. 9* Dallas Mavericks

We cashed with Utah the last two games and with the Jazz having a chance to move onto the Conference Semifinals, we will be going the other way here. The value in this line has shrunk for the Nuggets, meaning it has gone up for the Jazz, but the home team is the play here no matter the line as I expect Denver to make a statement. The Nuggets looked great in their first home game in this series, winning by 13 points as 5.5-point favorites but it was the complete opposite in Game Two as the Jazz turned the tables. That game Denver did not look like the same team that dominated at home the majority of the season. The Nuggets have won six of the last eight meetings at home and they bring in a 35-8 home record and their 34-7 regular season record was tied for the second best home record in the league. The Jazz did have a great season on the road as they finished a game over .500 during the regular season but that was actually tied for the second worst of all Western Conference playoff teams. The Nuggets fall into a great simple yet effective revenge situation as well. Play on home favorites that are playing with triple revenge in a game involving two teams with winning percentages between .600 and .750. This situation is 75-37 ATS (67 percent) since 1996. Denver is 16-3 ATS as a home favorite between 6.5 and 9.0 points over the last two years while also going 19-9 ATS in its last 28 games coming off a double-digit loss over the same span. Utah meanwhile is a miserable 4-16-1 ATS in its last 21games as an underdog between 5.0 and 10.5 points. 10* Denver Nuggets

I thought this would be a much more popular pick but the Lakers are catching some rare value in my opinion. After losing Game Three against the Thunder, Los Angeles suffered its worst playoff loss since Boston's clinching 131-92 victory in Game Six of the 2008 NBA Finals. Not many people would have guessed that Game Five is now a must win situation for the Lakers but here it is and we get a very decent line in going along with that. Making this important is the fact that the Lakers do not want an elimination game in Oklahoma City plus they are 17-0 in best-of-seven series when they win Game Five at home. Game Four was a nightmare. The Thunder outscored them 24-2 in fast break points, out rebounded them by seven, made 14 more free throws (42) than the Lakers even attempted (28) and led by as many as 29 in the second half en route to a 21-point win. The Lakers will target one area in particular in Game Five and that is the fact that Oklahoma City has run them off the court this series, outscoring them in fast break points by a staggering 72-17 margin.

Dallas is on the unfortunate end of a 3-1 series deficit and it could very well be up 3-1 right now showing just how close this one has been. Now back home, the Mavericks will need to obviously win to keep the series going and they must do so with their own brand of basketball and that is to run the Spurs out of American Airlines Arena. Making shots would help as would making stops on defense. During the last three games, all Spurs wins, San Antonio has shot 48.2, 47.3 and 48.7 percent from the field. Meanwhile Dallas has been slow out of the gates, scoring 20, 16 and 17 points in the first quarter while shooting a combined 20-of-61 (30.5 percent) from the floor. Scoring in transition is the key.

Atlanta won the first two games of this series by 10 points and the Bucks returned the favor with an 18-point win in Game Three. Based on the linesmakers, they are expecting the Hawks to bounceback tonight as they are favored again but I once again disagree with that. We won with Milwaukee on Saturday and we look to do it again while getting points at home so an outright win means the cover yet again. Milwaukee was not a very strong road team during the regular season and it is now 18-25 away from home and the Hawks are not much better on the road either, going 19-23 after that last loss. Milwaukee is 10 games better at home than Atlanta is on the road and that is simply not being taken into consideration. Atlanta won the last regular season meeting in Milwaukee but the other two regular season meetings were a split with the Bucks winning at home and losing in Atlanta in overtime. The Bucks started the season very strong with an 8-3 opening run but then went 4-15 in its next 19 games and many thought that was the end. Instead the Bucks finished the season as one of the hotter teams in the league. The Hawks have a bad history in the playoffs away from home, going 4-17 ATS in their last 21 road playoff games. Also they are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games following a loss while Milwaukee is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games following a double-digit home win. 10* Milwaukee Bucks

We cashed a ticket with Utah in the last game in this series and we will go right back with the Jazz here. It is almost verbatim as well. Denver and Utah finished with identical records and claimed the fourth and fifth seeds respectively in the Western Conference. They were separated by just two games with their home records yet the linesmakers are not thinking these teams are very equal and that is where we are seeing the value. Denver was favored by -5.5 and -6 in its two home games while Utah was favored by just -2.5 points in that first home game in Salt Lake City and the line is even less here in most places. The Nuggets are by far the more publically favored team and that should not be the case especially after a split in the first two games of this series and a Utah rout in Game Three. Obviously the injury factor is also playing a role but the Jazz have overcome it before and they have done so again here though the first couple games. Adversity, forward C.J. Miles figures, isn't necessarily a bad thing.

Dallas missed the cover by a half-point last time out and now trailing 2-1 in this series, it is now desperation time. The last game was lost at the free throw line as the Spurs were able to take 11 more attempts while converting six more of those. It has now also been two straight games where Dallas has not shot the ball well and it needs to get back to simply making shots. It is easier said than done but Dallas is a great shooting team and the exceptionally tough defenses of the Spurs are a thing of the past. There is also the simple fact that the Mavericks need to win the smaller aspects of the game such as rebounding and second chance points. Home court advantage has moved to the San Antonio side but the Spurs are not as dominating at home as they used to be. The Spurs are 30-12 at home this season, but the Mavericks were one of the 12 to win there during the regular season. Overall Dallas is 27-15 on the road which is tied for the best road record in the NBA with the Celtics. The Mavericks won 10 of their last 12 games away from American Airlines Center during the regular season, including victories in tough spots at Orlando, Atlanta and Charlotte on a back-to-back after a home game. They have not lost back-to-back road games since mid-February. 10* Dallas Mavericks

The Game Three win by Boston put a dagger in Miami and pretty ended this series. No NBA team has ever come back from a 3-0 series deficit and just knowing that will bring the confidence down for those teams on the wrong end. While some will argue that the team with the series lead will take the gas pedal off, the Celtics are taking a different approach to this game.

The Bucks had trouble in Atlanta as they lost the first two games of this series by 10 points each but heading home will certainly turn things around. Milwaukee was not a very strong road team during the regular season and it is now 18-25 away from home and the Hawks are not much better on the road either, going 19-22 during the regular season. The Bucks started the season very strong with an 8-3 opening run but then went 4-15 in its next 19 games and many thought that was the end. Instead the Bucks finished the season as one of the hotter teams in the league and they will need to make a statement here to turn this series around. Atlanta won the last regular season meeting in Milwaukee but the other two regular season meetings were a split with the Bucks winning at home and losing in Atlanta in overtime. The Hawks have a bad history in the playoffs away from home, going 4-16 ATS in their last 20 road playoff games while Milwaukee is 15-7 ATS this season as a home favorite of fewer than six points and 20-5 ATS as a favorite of fewer than five points in all games. Atlanta is just 7-13 this season as a road underdog and a straight up loss likely means a cover loss with this short number. 10* Milwaukee Bucks

It is do or die time for the Bobcats. Orlando has been dominant the first two games of this series but a trip back to Charlotte is what the Bobcats need. The Magic are a solid road team with a 25-16 record away from home but the Bobcats are 31-10 on their home floor and I think that is not being taken into account in this line. The first two games of this series were not very competitive but the regular season series was however with Charlotte covering two of the last three meetings with the lone setback coming in overtime. The Bobcats are 7-4 ATS as a home underdog this season while going 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine games following a loss. It is pretty evident that Charlotte will be looking to get off to a quicker start as it has fallen behind early and by a significant margin in the first two games of this series. Playing at home will allow the Magic not to get out to that big start. Charlotte is part of a great situation. Play on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 and with a winning percentage between .510 and .600 that are coming off two or more consecutive road losses playing a winning team. This situation is 54-24 ATS (69.2 percent) since 1996. 9* Charlotte Bobcats

Denver and Utah finished with identical records and claimed the fourth and fifth seeds respectively in the Western Conference. They were separated by just two games with their home records yet the linesmakers are not thinking these teams are very equal and that is where we are seeing the value. Denver was favored by -5.5 and -6 in its two home games while Utah is favored by just -2.5 points in this first home game in Salt Lake City. Why is there such a discrepancy? The big reason is public choice as the Nuggets are by far the more publically favored team and that should not be the case especially after a split in the first two games of this series. Obviously the injury factor is also playing a role but the Jazz have overcome it before and they have done so again here though the first couple games. Adversity, forward C.J. Miles figures, isn't necessarily a bad thing.

We cashed a ticket with San Antonio in Game Two as the Spurs won outright and we will stick with the road team here expecting Dallas to bounce back. Last night we cashed with Phoenix on the road and this situation is pretty similar as we catch the much better team getting points. The Mavericks were dominated at home but it was more of a bad case of shooting than anything else as Dallas shot just 36.5 percent from the floor including 36.8 percent from long range. Also like Phoenix, Dallas needs to control the tempo as it will want to run it and make it a quicker-paced game just like it has done in other meetings this season. There is also the simple fact that the Mavericks need to win the smaller aspects of the game such as rebounding and second chance points. Home court advantage has moved to the San Antonio side but the Spurs are not as dominating at home as they used to be. The Spurs are 29-12 at home this season, but the Mavericks were one of the 12 to win there. Overall Dallas is 27-14 on the road which is the best road record in the NBA so winning away from home and getting the home court advantage back is far from a stretch. The Mavericks won 10 of their last 12 games away from American Airlines Center, including victories in tough spots at Orlando, Atlanta and Charlotte on a back-to-back after a home game. Dallas falls into a solid situation as well. Play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are revenging a same season loss and coming off a loss as a favorite. This situation is 117-70 ATS (62.6 percent) since 1996. 10* Dallas Mavericks

Portland is feeling pretty good about things after leaving Phoenix with a series split and heading home for the next two games. The Blazers really have to be concerned about the second game however as Phoenix made some adjustments, minor ones, and blew away Portland. That was the Suns team I expected to show up in Game One and now they cannot afford to lose another game right after as getting home court back is the biggest thing now. With the Game Two win, the Suns once again are in the driver

Chicago had every opportunity to steal Game Two in Cleveland but it fell apart in the final quarter and now the Bulls must try to regroup and win both games at home to get back into this series. That is easier said than done but I do believe the return to Chicago will have them ready tonight even though getting back into the series may seem like a longshot. LeBron James went off for 40 points on Monday as he was pretty much on fire. The Bulls used a great defensive strategy against him as they forced him to beat them with jump shots and he did just that. The same strategy will be used again and the percentages are definitely in the Bulls favor even though James is one of the greatest. Overall he is not a consistent jump shooter and Chicago will ban k on the inconsistency of that for tonight. The aggressiveness of the Bulls came through in Game Two as well. The Bulls won the rebounding battle 37-36 after getting stung on the boards in the opener. Chicago led the league in rebounding but was outrebounded 50-38 and allowed 13 offensive rebounds that led to the Cavaliers' 42-26 edge in second-chance points. This time around it attacked the basket a lot more than they did in game one and was able to get easy transition baskets and putbacks on misses. The Bulls also finished with only four turnovers which was a franchise playoff low and while we won

The favorites were the story again last night as three chalks covered in the four games, two by over 20 points each. That is going to get the public on the home teams once again and despite that, this is the typical NBA playoff game two line move where there is actually a better price on the favorite. Dallas seems to be the public

The Magic have been playing outstanding and some are saying they have a great shot at representing the Eastern Conference in the NBA Finals for a second straight season. That would not surprise me at all but I think this is a difficult spot for Orlando. Charlotte was able to cover game one of this series but the Bobcats were never really in that game. They fell behind early and big and while putting together a big rally, they readily admitted that they did not come into the game with the right focus. This time it will be different as we will see a looser team that feels the pressure has shifted the other way. According to the Orlando Sentinel it was pretty evident that the Bobcats felt uneasy entering their playoff series. Guard Stephen Jackson remembered the locker room being quiet and tight Sunday evening before Game 1. The Bobcats started the game focused intensely on Magic center Dwight Howard, and in the meantime got burned by point guard Jameer Nelson. By the time Charlotte settled down, Orlando had a double-digit lead. The Bobcats made the game more respectable by the time it was over and they improved to 6-1 ATS this season as underdogs of eight points or more and they are now 10-3 ATS on the season when playing against teams with a winning percentage of .700 or better. The regular season series was won by Orlando three games to one but only the first game was out of hand when the Magic won by 12 points in Charlotte. Including Sunday, the Bobcats have covered three of the last four meetings with the lone ATS setback coming in overtime making the road team a perfect 5-0 ATS this season. While the Bobcats will come into this game with a totally different mindset, Orlando may be doing the same but not necessarily in a good way. The Magic did not practice on Tuesday and Charlotte is using that as a motivator.