Sports Picks & Predictions

There is one thing that Orlando did in Game Five that didn't allow to Atlanta to even compete and that was it got off to a fast start. It is going to have to duplicate that here because the last two games in Atlanta, both losses by the Magic, they never led in the first quarter and their biggest lead in both games was just two points. Game Five showed us that Orlando can be the superior team when it wants to be and now it is going to have to prove that on the road to avoid an early summer.

It is no secret that the Hawks will be playing with desperation to avoid having to go back to Orlando for the deciding Game Seven. If the Magic can match the Hawks energy level, which they have not done in either game in Atlanta, the Hawks will have no choice but to go back to Orlando and try and win the series on the road. Despite all of the negatives for Orlando, we have to remember that it lost by only seven combined points in those two games so anything better than those energy efforts means a win here.

The fact that Dwight Howard got into early foul trouble, played only 28 minutes and scored only eight points in Game Five was a huge blessing in disguise for Orlando. It made the other players step up and that they did which evoked some confidence which should carry over into here. The Magic, who shot miserably from beyond the arc during the first three games of this series, hit 11-of-26 from long-range in Game Five. Desperation is one thing but the pressure is on Atlanta here.

Orlando has a spectacular long-term situation on its side for this one as well. Play on teams where the line is +3 to -3 after allowing 35 points or less in the first half last game going against an opponent after scoring 90 points or less 3 straight games. This situation is 26-6 ATS (81.2 percent) since 1996 including a perfect 8-0 ATS over the last five years. Also, Orlando is 34-16 ATS in its last 50 road games after allowing 80 points or less while the Hawks are 14-27 ATS in their last 41 games revenging a loss where the opponent scored 100 or more points. Back to Orlando they go. 10* (529) Orlando Magic

It is obviously do or die time for the Spurs. Throughout this series they have showed that they are too old and too slow to keep up with the more athletic and young Grizzlies but this is the game where the pride comes out. This is where the heart is worn on the sleeve and San Antonio comes out to play its best game so far. The Spurs have played good enough to win in all three losses so far but they just have not had enough in the tank to get it done down the stretch but that changes here.

You have to give credit to Memphis for taking the number one seed to the brink of elimination but going in, the Grizzlies were thought to have had the matchup advantages and that has come to fruition through four games. During the regular season, Memphis split the season series so it has San Antonio's number to some extent and going back to the end of last season, the Grizzlies have covered nine straight meetings. That is a main reason why this number is not higher than it is as trend players are all over Memphis.

Had it not been for a three-pointer from Shane Battier in Game One and an improbable one from Zach Randolph in Game Three, perhaps the Grizzlies would be the ones on the brink of elimination. That doesn't mater now and as the Spurs are saying, they now have everything to lose. Memphis has been unstoppable when it is hot, but very beatable when cold. The Grizzlies know they cannot take the pedal of the gas because they want to end this series as soon as possible but the Spurs will have something to say about it first.

The Spurs fall into a very powerful situation here as well based on the last two losses against the Grizzlies. Play on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are playing with double revenge against opponent that is coming off a win over a division rival as an underdog. This situation is 39-16 ATS (70.9 percent) since 1996. San Antonio is 11-3 ATS this season revenging a straight up loss as a favorite and it is 33-12 ATS in its last 45 home games following a loss by 15 or more points. 10* (526) San Antonio Spurs

We have seen this line fluctuate quite a bit in all four games so far in this series. I won on the Bulls/Pacers 'under' in Game Two, which was set at 193 and a big reason for playing that was due to the jump from the last game which had a closing total of 188.
For Game Three, we saw the number go back down to where it was in Game One but playing the 'over' did not come through. The number went down further in Game Four and now again in Game Five so we will once again go 'over'.

With the last three games being low scoring affairs, the value is on our side now as we are catching the lowest total of the series thus far. I also expect the Bulls to finally get their offense going as well. With a soft Indiana defense, the Bulls should have taken it to the Pacers but they shot just 38.9 percent in Game Three and 37.8 percent in Game Four while scoring 88 and 84 points respectively. This comes after scoring 104 and 96 points in the first two games at home and that is what we should see take place again.

Despite losing both games on the road, the Pacers shot a respectable 44.1 percent from the floor in the two games combined in Chicago which is more than what the Bulls have allowed at home, which is 42 percent. For the Pacers to extend this series, they will need to keep that same offense going as they actually scored more points in this series on the road than at home which is a big surprise since they have averaged more at home during the regular season.

The Pacers fall into a great situation based on last game. Play the 'over' involving a team after scoring 35 points or less in the first half last game and where both teams scored 90 points or less in that game. This situation is 42-16 (72.4 percent) to the 'over' over the last five seasons. Also, Chicago is 26-13 to the 'over' coming off a loss as a favorite while the Pacers are 9-3 to the 'over' in their last 12 games when playing with two days rest and they are 4-1 to the 'over' this season with a total of less than 190. 10* Over (519) Indiana Pacers/(520) Chicago Bulls

I had the 'over' in this matchup on Saturday and a bad second half did us in, making it two straight 'unders' in this series. Even though the first game of this series went 'over' this number keeps dropping and it is the lowest so far in this entire series and the first time it has fallen below 190. It is actually the first time since January of 2009, a span of 12 meetings, that these teams have met with a total of fewer than 190. That represents value and we will take it on Monday.

The first game of this series went 'over' and while it did not go 'over' by much, that game was in San Antonio and figuring the first game in Memphis went 'under', that allows even more value to come into play. The two regular season meetings played in Memphis went 'over' and they went 'over' by quite a bit as they surpassed the number by a combined 27.5 points. With this being the playoffs, totals tend to be set lower and that is the case here as this number in down from those two previous games in Memphis.

Looking at straight numbers alone, the Spurs are averaging 201.1 ppg in their games this season while the Grizzlies are averaging 197.1 ppg in their games this season and both of those averages are well above the O/U for tonight. When looking at home/road splits, those two averages are 200.8 ppg and 198.1 respectively so the venue switch does not hurt. These are two of those most efficient offenses in the league and the Spurs and Grizzlies are ranked fifth and sixth respectively in offensive shooting.

Memphis falls into a fantastic situation for a high-scoring game. Play the 'over' involving home teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points coming off a divisional win by three points or less while playing only their second game in five days. This situation is 35-8 (81.4 percent) since 1996. The 'over' is 11-3 in the last 14 games for the Spurs following a loss and the 'over' is 10-3 in their last 13 conference games while the 'over' is 8-1 in Memphis' last nine games as a home underdog of fewer than five points. 10* Over (511) San Antonio Spurs/(512) Memphis Grizzlies

Atlanta has seized control of this series as it has taken a 2-1 lead over Orlando following its win on Friday. The line has stayed relatively the same but the total has actually dropped down even more following the second straight 'under' in this series. We were on the wrong side of that one Thursday but I am coming back with the 'over' here as I feel the value is completely on that side once again. The zig zag theory comes into play with the totals and while it has not been as highly publicized, it has been more profitable.

Basically I am playing this one for a lot of the same reasons as in Game Three. Because of recent results and series history, we are being given incredible value on the 'over'. The four regular season meetings this season all finished 'under' with the lowest posted total being 188.5 and that game was just played three weeks ago. Now we are seeing a posted total that is more than eight points less than that and even less than the Game Three total. The last two results have driven down this number too much.

Going back further, 11 of the last 13 meetings have played 'under' the total but only three of the totals are similar to what we are dealing with Sunday and both of those were the playoff games. While the recent meetings are helping us, the end of the regular season is also aiding us in value. Atlanta closed by going 'under' in its final three games but it should be noted that all of those games finished with higher totals than the O/U for this game. Trend players will be all over the 'under' but that is extremely skewed.

Meanwhile Orlando went 'under' in its final two games but both of those totals closed at 191 or higher. This total for the game here is much lower than what both teams are normally used to seeing as Atlanta has been involved in only two games with a total fewer than 180 while Orlando has yet to see a number this low before today. Granted the playoffs tend to be played more on the defensive side of things, but the value is too strong. 10* Over (505) Orlando Magic/(506) Atlanta Hawks

On Saturday we saw the Pacers stave off from being eliminated as they kept their series alive with the Bulls and I fully expect the Knicks to do the same against the Celtics. Heading back to New York, the Knicks had to have been kicking themselves being down 2-0 as a couple bounces the other way could have been the difference of them actually being up 2-0. They never got going Friday as they never led, fell behind by as many as 23 points and are now pretty much dead in this series.

The Celtics played their best game of the series Friday but I do not see a repeat of that here. They shot 50.6 percent from the floor on offense in Game Three including an incredible 58.3 percent from long range on 14-24 shooting. Take that away and we would have had another close game. That was the big talk following the game as was the 20 assists that Rajon Rondo but lost in the shuffle was the 20 turnovers that the Celtics committed. They are averaging 15.3 tpg ion this series.

This line has done a complete 180 and this is all due the zig zag theory and the fact this is a must win game for the Knicks. New York was favored by 3.5 points in Game Three but now for Game Four, they are underdogs by the same amount and that is a huge line adjustment that does not involve a chance of venue. Normally that signals a play on the team that it has been adjusted against but in this case, the Knicks qualify based on the matchups and the value is simply too strong.

The Knicks fall into a solid situation. Play on teams in the second half of the season that are averaging 102 ppg or more going up against teams averaging between 92 and 98 ppg, after a loss by 15 points or more. This situation is 47-20 ATS (70.1 percent) over the last five seasons. Boston is 1-11 ATS in its 12 games this season following a double-digit road win and 2-13 ATS in its 15 games following a double-digit win of any kind. The Knicks are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games as an underdog of fewer than five points. 10* (504) New York Knicks

This is another great example of how recent results are affecting the next game line. The zig zag theory comes into play with the totals and while it has not been as highly publicized, it has been much more profitable. Wednesday's game stayed 'under' the total by 14.5 points but looking at the individual quarters shows that the game could have played 'over' as it had quarters of 51 and 49 points. A 34-point first quarter was the difference in keeping this one lower than it should have been.

The closing total from Game Two was 194.5 and because of the 'under', this total is three or more points less than that and that provides value to the other side. The first game of this series went 'over' and while it did not go 'over' by much, a change in venue will help us out here. The two regular season meetings played in Memphis went 'over' and they went 'over' by quite a bit. With this being the playoffs, totals tend to be set lower and that is the case here as this number in down from those two previous games in Memphis.

Looking at straight numbers alone, the Spurs are averaging 201.4 ppg in their games this season while the Grizzlies are averaging 197.3 ppg in their games this season and both of those averages are well above the O/U for tonight. When looking at home/road splits, those two averages are 201.3 ppg and 198.6 respectively so the venue switch does not hurt. These are two of those most efficient offenses in the league and the Spurs and Grizzlies are ranked fifth and sixth respectively in offensive shooting.

The Spurs are 14-4 to the 'over' as a road underdog this season and 10-2 to the 'over' in road games after playing two consecutive home games this season. They are also 10-2 to the 'over' in their last 12 games within the conference. Memphis meanwhile is 8-0 to the 'over' as a home favorite of three points or less this season and 11-3 to the 'over' in its 14 home games this season revenging a road loss against the opponent. Also, the 'over' is 5-2 in the last seven meetings in this series. 10* Over (749) San Antonio Spurs/(750) Memphis Grizzlies

I won with the 'over' in the first game of this series and after a very low scoring contest in Game Two, I am going back with the 'over'. The zig zag theory comes into play with the totals and while it has not been as highly publicized, it has been much more profitable. Tuesday's game stayed 'under' the total by 12.5 points but looking at the individual quarters shows that the game could have played 'over' as it had quarters of 52 and 51 points. A 29-point third quarter was the difference.

Because of that and going back further, this game also has 'under' written all over it, thus the drop in the posted total. We are once again going the other way due to the fact that these prior games is providing us with incredible value on the 'over'. The four regular season meetings this season all finished 'under' with the lowest posted total being 188.5 and that game was just played three weeks ago. Now we are seeing a posted total that is eight points less than that and even less than the Game Two total.

Going back further, 10 of the last 12 meetings have played 'under' the total but only two of the totals are similar to what we are dealing with Friday and both of those were the playoff games. While the recent meetings are helping us, the end of the regular season is also aiding us in value. Atlanta closed by going 'under' in its final three games but it should be noted that all four games finished with higher totals than the O/U for this game. Trend players will be all over the 'under' but that is extremely skewed.

Meanwhile Orlando went 'under' in its final two games but both of those totals closed at 191 or higher. This total for the game here is much lower than what both teams are normally used to seeing as Atlanta has only had five games with a total of less than 180 while Orlando has been involved in only two games with a total less than 181 or less. Granted the playoffs tend to be played more on the defensive side of things, but the value is too strong. We will zig while everyone else zags. 10* Over (741) Orlando Magic/(742) Atlanta Hawks

We have seen this line fluctuate quite a bit in all three games so far and we have seen the total come through based on the move. I won on the Bulls/Pacers 'under' in the last game, which was set at 193 and a big reason for playing that was due to the jump from the last game which had a closing total of 188. Now for Game Three, we are seeing the number go back down to where it was in Game One. All of these adjustments are made based on the past game results and that spells value in going the other way.

With a shift back to Indiana, we should see some more offense as the Bulls defense is a much better unit on its home floor. Despite losing both game on the road, the Pacers shot a respectable 44.1 percent from the floor in the two games combined which is more than what the Bulls have allowed at home, which is 42 percent. Indiana shoots the ball much better at home, 45.2 percent, compared ton on the road, where it shoots 4..3 percent so all of this should mean a more efficient offense for Indiana.

On the other side, Chicago shoots 46.2 percent at home compared to 45.9 percent on the road so there is not much of a difference when the Bulls take to the road. With a soft Indiana defense, Chicago should once again be able to put up a significant amount of points as the dropoff in points scored is not much. In this series, Chicago put up 102 in regulation and 99 points in the two games played in Indiana and while the two games split with the total, the game that went 'over' had a higher posted number.

With this total set below 190, it is in great position to be a higher scoring game as the Bulls are 11-6 with a total set between 185 and 189.5 while the Pacers are 4-0 to the 'over' in those parameters. Chicago also falls into a great league-wide situation. Play the 'over' with teams that have won eight or more consecutive games and with a winning percentage of .750 or greater and playing a team with a losing record. This situation is 77-38 (67 percent) since 1996 with the average points scored being 201.4. 10* Over (733) Chicago Bulls/(734) Indiana Pacers

This is a very similar spot to the one that Orlando was in last night and even though the Magic did not cover, they should have. After losing Game One of their series. I expected Orlando to come back strong and it built an 11-point lead before the Hawks made a late run to get the backdoor cover. The Lakers are in the same boat. Los Angeles dropped Game One by nine points which came as a surprise as it swept the regular season series 4-0 so this is now a must win for the Lakers.

Even though the Hawks have a size edge against the Magic, Orlando negated that. It is the opposite here as the Lakers have the size edge and that will be the determining factor. Emeka Okafor is the only real inside presence the Hornets boast of and his season averages of 12 ppg and 10 rpg against the Lakers pale in comparison to the 22 ppg and 12 rpg Pau Gasol posted on average against New Orleans. Andrew Bynum was never dominant in the games against the Hornets but his presence is still huge.

The Lakers were manhandled down low against New Orleans in that first game as they were outscored in the paint 52-34. it was the first time in the five meetings this season that Los Angeles was outscored down low by the Hornets and Gasol shouldered the blame from Game One. "I know when I have to be more aggressive and I know when I just have to be more productive out there. I wasn't able to do that in Game One," Gasol said. "It's more my fault than their credit."

Normally we will see a big line jump in Game Two following a Game One loss, or even non-cover sometimes, but this line has not gone up as much as I thought it would as it is less than a bucket more than it was in the opener and that presents value in my opinion. The Hornets covered for just the first time in their last seven games as a playoff underdog in Game One so the victory and the cover can be graded as an aberration. Look for the Lakers to come out totally focused and step on the Hornets Wednesday. 10* (732) Los Angeles Lakers

We have seen the zig zag theory go the other way in recent years in the NBA Playoffs as linesmakers and even the law of averages have turned this once profitable theory into a bust. The last time we saw it however was in last seasons NBA Finals and in the five games that were in play, going with the zig zag theory resulted in four wins. While that may not trigger a complete comeback that was so lucrative a couple decades back, it does show that playing these in the right spots can give positive results.

One of those spots is with Orlando that lost outright against Atlanta in Game One of their series. Not only did it lose outright but it lost by double digits which only makes it stronger. It was Orlando's 13th home loss this season, after losing only nine games all of last season, so it is more than normal but it has lost back-to-back games at home only twice all season and only once since mid-November. With the importance of this game, we can expect the Magic to bring their best effort on Tuesday.

The Magic's biggest lead in that game against the Hawks was only four points and with the exception of Dwight Howard, they were dominated all over the floor. Is this a must win for Orlando? Not yet but it is close. Howard then spoke up Sunday and challenged his team to play better defensively. As dominant as Howard was for the Magic inside, the Hawks were equally unstoppable on the perimeter. That has to change as does the fact that the Hawks will not shoot lights out once again.

The Magic are favored by the same amount of points they were favored by in Game Pone which is rare when talking about the zig zag but that is just fine with us. It helps also as we play on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are playing with double revenge against opponent off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog. This situation is 39-14 ATS (73.6 percent) since 1996. The Hawks have covered five straight in this series and that is one reason the public is lining up behind Atlanta once again. 10* (724) Orlando Magic

We saw a very low scoring contest in Game One of the Boston and New York series but I expect a much higher scoring game this time around and we have the value to go along with it. The closing total in Game One was 197 and we are seeing the number for Game Two sit four points less and that certainly is exceptional value. You will hear a lot of the zig zag theory during the NBA playoffs and while it has cooled off and the spots need to be found as opposed to being bet blindly, the totals are more lucrative with this theory.

The first game finished with 172 points scored which was 25 points below the total as well as being the lowest scoring game of the season between these two rivals. This is the sixth meeting this season and only two of the first five meetings went 'under' the number. The three games that went 'over' finished with 214, 234 and 206 points scored so there is obviously the potential for these two teams to be involved in a shootout. The only game that had a total this low finished with 214 points scored.

The Knicks will be better on offense for one simple reason and that is that it is unlikely Carmelo Anthony will play as bad as he did in the first game. He drew two early fouls and sat out almost all of the first quarter and he finished 1-11 in the second half while going just 5-18 overall, finishing with 15 points. Had he played even a little better, the Knicks could be up 1-0 right now but his offensive presence, and his presence on the floor alone, will be big in Game Two.

The Knicks were held below their season average for shooting while they held the Celtics to a shooting percentage lower than they normally do and when both of those happen, you can expect a low scoring game. Not this time. Boston is one of the best shooting teams in the NBA and was held way below its shooting average in Game One. Asking the Knicks to duplicate that will be next to impossible although the first game can be blamed on poor Celtics shooting and not a newfound Knicks defense. 10* Over (721) New York Knicks/(722) Boston Celtics

We are seeing a big jump from the total of Game One to the total of Game Two and thus we are getting value in the opposite move. The Pacers and Bulls combined for 203 points in the opening game in this series which was good enough to go 'over' the closing 188 total. Because of that result, we are seeing value in the 'under' as the number has risen by four points as of late Sunday night in comparison to the O/U on Saturday and could go up even more by gametime.

Chicago finished the regular season with the best defense in the NBA, allowing just 43 percent shooting from the floor. The Bulls also finished second in points allowed with only 91.3 ppg given up. After allowing 99 points on 46.5 percent shooting in Game One and realistically almost losing it, you can bet the emphasis will be on the defensive side of the floor tonight. In the most recent meeting prior, the Pacers piled up 102 points in regulation in a win so now it is time for the defense to buckle down.

This total falls into a good range as the Bulls are 16-9 to the 'under' with a total between 190 and 194.5 while the Pacers are 12-6 to the 'under' with a total between 190 and 194.5. Also the Bulls are 25-11 to the 'under' when playing with a day of rest and that comes down to coaching. The 'under' is 9-4 in the Pacers last 13 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game while the 'under' is 10-4 in the Bulls last 14 games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.

Following that narrow win should put the Bulls defense on alert and that has already been the case this season as Chicago is 13-4 to the 'under' following a win by six points or fewer this season. The number is also a good contrarian for both sides as the Pacers are 23-11 to the 'under' in their last 34 road games against teams shooting 46 percent or better while the Bulls are 25-16 to the 'under' this season against teams allowing 99 ppg or worse. We will see a completely opposite type of game Monday. 10* Under (719) Indiana Pacers/(720) Chicago Bulls

Oklahoma City finished five games better than the Nuggets this season but the four and five seeds were not determined until the final week of the season. The Thunder won the final two meetings of the regular season to secure the fourth seed in the Western Conference and the home court advantage and that should make a big difference in this series. The Nuggets finished with a better home record than Oklahoma City but the Thunder won a lot more road games and that is a huge playoff edge.

Denver was obviously the biggest surprise in the NBA after the All-Star break. The Nuggets traded away Carmelo Anthony and Chauncey Billups and while it may be an overreaction to say they were tossing in the towel, it was fairly obvious that they were building toward the future. So all they have done is go 18-6 in the 24 games since the trade to make a surprising run into the playoffs. However, a lack of chemistry in the playoffs is going to hurt.

While Denver was the talk after the trade deadline, Oklahoma City was doing pretty good in its own right. After the trade deadline, Oklahoma City picked up speed and reeled off a stellar 19-5 record in the last month-and-a-half of the season, and very much look the part of Western Conference contender. The two victories over Denver at the end of the season were done so by a significant rebounding edge and its ability to slow down the Denver attack. Those factors will once again be on the Thunders side, especially at home.

Play against road underdogs that are coming off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog, in a game involving two teams with winning percentages between .600 and .800. This situation is 42-12 ATS (77.8 percent) since 1996. Play on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points in the second half of the season that are allowing between 98 and 102 ppg after scoring 100 points or more two straight games going up against teams allowing 102 or more ppg. This situation is 42-18 ATS (70 percent) since 1996. 10* (716) Oklahoma City Thunder

This game has 'under' written all over it based on recent games from both sides as well as the season series between Atlanta and Orlando. With that said, we are going the other way due to the fact that these prior games is providing us with incredible value on the 'over'. The four meetings this season all finished 'under' with the lowest posted total being 188.5 and that game was just played over two weeks ago. Now we are seeing a posted total that is nine points less than that.

Going back further, nine of the last 10 meetings have played 'under' the total but none of those closing numbers have been close to what we are dealing with Saturday. While the recent meetings are helping us, the end of the regular season is also aiding us in value. Atlanta closed by going 'under' in its final three games but it should be noted that all four games finished with higher totals than the O/U for Game One of this series. Trend players will be all over the 'under' but that is extremely skewed.

Meanwhile Orlando went 'under' in its final two games but both of those totals closed at 191 or higher. This total for the first game here is much lower than what both teams are normally used to seeing as Atlanta has only had three games with a total of less than 180 while Orlando has not been involved in a game with a total less than 180.5. Now all of a sudden, the O/U is the lowest all season. Granted the playoffs tend to be played more on the defensive side of things, but the value is too strong.

Both teams also fall into solid league-wide situations. Play the 'over' with road teams in the second half of the season where the total is between 170 and 179.5 points after one or more consecutive unders, in a game involving two teams allowing between 92 and 98 ppg. This situation is 31-10 (75.6 percent) to the 'over' since 1996. Also, play the 'over' with teams after allowing 85 points or less where the total is 179.5 or less in a game in a game involving two teams allowing between 92 and 98 ppg. This situation is 35-7 (83.3 percent) to the 'over' since 1996. 10* Over (705) Atlanta Hawks/(706) Orlando Magic

Playing big favorites in the playoffs may not seem like the correct move however in this case, it happens now for the opening game. Teams in the playoffs tend to be more equal because they are in the postseason but in the Eastern Conference, there is a wide gap. That is especially true when we are dealing with the two seed against the seven seed. Miami finished the season strong by winning its last four games and going 15-3 in its last 18 games after a five-game losing streak to grab the second seed.

Miami is out to prove something. The Heat have had doubters all season long and it can to a head during that recent five-game losing streak but they responded huge down the stretch. They want nothing more than to send a statement right our of the gates. Miami had its problems against the elite teams, going 9-14 against the top ten but 49-10 against every other team. The Sixers meanwhile were 7-19 against the top ten in the league and all of this includes a Miami 3-0 season series sweep.

The Sixers are limping into the playoffs and that is not a good thing. The 3-13 start to the season was more promising than the 38-28 finish, which included losses in five of their final six games no thanks to key injuries. While Miami is filled with star talent, the Sixers lack in that category and that is huge come playoff time. Philadelphia is a superstar away from being able to compete with the likes of Boston, Miami, Chicago and Orlando in the Eastern Conference.

For Miami, it took a whole season to find its chemistry but that is just fine. In the end, there was symmetry, the Heat finishing the season second in the league in field-goal percentage, as well as second in defensive field-goal percentage. That is going to be a tough combo for any team to compete with but it will be more evidenced in this early round. As mentioned, this is a statement game for the Heat to declare they are the here and getting off to a strong starts is the key. 10* (704) Miami Heat

With this being the final regular season game for both teams, the situations need to be looked at more differently than during any other point in the season. Minnesota enters this game on a 14-game losing streak and no matter the outcome, it is guaranteed to at least tie for the worst record in the NBA. To save any face, the Timberwolves will want to end their third worst season in franchise history with a win. The fact that it is at home makes the situation that much stronger.

Houston is coming off a loss at home against Dallas which was its third loss in four games following a solid run of 15-5 in its 20 games previous to this. The Rockets played their last game without starters Kyle Lowry and Luis Scola who are averaging a combined 31.8 ppg and they will do so again tonight as both are nursing injuries. That recent game was an overtime loss against rival Dallas so all of those scenarios put together make it tough for the Rockets to get up for this game.

Obviously the Rockets are the better team here as they have 25 games on Minnesota but when looking at the home and road splits, they are only five games better and that certainly does not equate to being favored by 6.5 points on the road. To their credit they have been solid this season as road favorites but again, this situation is completely different being the last day of the season. The last time Houston was favored on the road, it was still in contention for the playoffs and that is hardly the case here.

The Rockets are 1-5 ATS in their last six games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game while Minnesota is 4-1 ATS in its last five games after allowing more than 125 points in its previous game. Minnesota also falls into a solid situation. Play on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are shooting between 43.5 and 45.5 percent going up against opponents allowing between 45.5 and 47.5 percent shooting, after two straight games of allowing a shooting percentage of 50 percent or higher. This situation is 49-21 ATS (70 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (518) Minnesota Timberwolves

This is obviously a big game for the Lakers and one that they need to win for a few reasons. First and foremost, a win gets them closer to the second seed. Dallas has one game remaining against New Orleans on Wednesday, meaning the Lakers would secure the number two seed if they win their remaining two games tonight and Wednesday at Sacramento. Even if Dallas beats New Orleans, the Lakers winning out would secure the tiebreaker over the Mavericks because the Lakers won the Pacific Division.

Second, mired in a five-game losing streak, Los Angeles needs to win simply to get itself right heading into the playoffs. Momentum can play a big role in playoff success or failure and right now the Lakers have none and are teetering on the brink of a full collapse. This five-game losing streak is the longest since 2006-07 and it seems almost inconceivable considering the Lakers had won nine consecutive games and also were 17-1 after the All-Star break prior to this skid.

The good news is that tonight they face a team that has locked down the top seed in the Western Conference and is more concerned about rest at this point in the season. However we won't see the entire team take the night off like the Celtics did last night. Though history would suggest a heavy prescription of rest for Spurs regulars over the next two games, head coach Gregg Popovich seems to be leaning toward employing a quasi-standard lineup. They are still fighting for the overall best record with the Bulls.

Last year, the Lakers went 12-10 in March and April, yet recovered in time to win the NBA title so all hope is not lost. Los Angeles knows this is a big game and we should see a fully focused squad. "It

The playoffs start a few days early for Memphis and Portland, both of which are already in the playoffs but are still jockeying for playoff positioning. The Blazers have a game lead over Memphis for the number six seed in the Western Conference so win here locks up that spot. And it is a big spot should the Lakers win out and grab the second seed. The Blazers went 3-1 against San Antonio and 2-2 against Dallas this season while going 1-3 against the Lakers so the simple look says they want the Mavericks first.

Memphis has made a solid run to get here as it is 6-1 over its last seven games and 9-2 over its last 11 contests so it will head into the playoffs with some solid momentum. This game is a big one for the Grizzlies also but this is not a good situation. Their last four games have been at home as well as six of the last seven and they have played only six road games since the beginning of March. Memphis is 16-23 on the road this season which is the worst road record of all Western Conference playoff teams.

Portland is 10-4 in its last 14 games and the addition of Gerald Wallace in a trade deadline deal has proved to be a difference for the Blazers down the stretch as Wallace has averaged 19.5 ppg and shot 54.1 percent from the field over the last 12 games. Since Wallace joined the team, the Blazers are 6-2 against the top four teams in the Western Conference. The Blazers will be bolstered tonight by the return of center Marcus Camby, who has missed the past two games with a neck strain.

The last meeting saw Memphis clobber Portland 86-73. The Blazers have not forgotten and we play on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points revenging a loss scoring less than 85 points going up against an opponent off a home win against a division rival. This situation is 23-5 ATS (82.1 percent) over the last five seasons. Also, play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points off a divisional win by 20 points or more going up against opponent off a home win. This situation is 27-6 ATS (81.8 percent) since 1996. 10* (704) Portland Trailblazers

Charlotte has gone 'over' the total in three straight games and that may be taking some value away with this total but I still think there is enough value for this one to be played. The three recent results all flew 'over' the number as the defense has allowed 111, 112 and 112 points in those games and there is no reason to think that changes here. Charlotte is 12-9 to the 'over' this season when playing with no rest including a 5-1 record to the 'over' when going from home to on the road.

The Nets meanwhile are coming off their second straight 'under' but looking at those closing totals gives us a good indication of why as they closed at 212.5 and 207. And with the number for tonight, the value increases significantly. New Jersey had gone 'over' in five straight games prior to that and similar to the Bobcats, the Nets tend to play high scoring games with no rest. They are 13-8 to the 'over' in the second of back-to-back games including a 4-1 record to the 'over' when going from the road to home.

This is the fourth and final meeting this season with the first three meetings all staying 'under' and despite this being the highest total of them all, this one has the best chance of surpassing the number. The finishing scores had 168, 175 and 183 points put up and this one is trending the right way. This is the first meeting since early February and the teams have changed a ton since then and none of those three earlier meetings were played with no rest as is the case with this one.

New Jersey falls into a solid situation favoring the 'over'. Play the 'over' where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points on teams that are coming off a road loss against a division rival going up against an opponent off a home loss. This situation is 96-56 (63.2 percent) to the 'over' since 1996. Charlotte meanwhile is 17-5 to the 'over' in its last 22 games when playing its fifth game in seven days while going 7-3 to the 'over' in its last 10 games following a double-digit home loss. 10* Over (507) Charlotte Bobcats/(508) New Jersey Nets

Boston could not get it done on Thursday against Chicago but it has a second chance to prove something and possibly lock down the number three seed in the Eastern Conference. A win over Miami puts the Celtics up by a game over the Heat and in reality two games because of the head-to-head tiebreaker that Boston possesses. The Celtics bounces back Friday with an easy win over Washington which at least restores a winning attitude heading into this game.

Miami won on Friday as well over Charlotte but that still does not make up for its horrible loss on Wednesday at home against Milwaukee which was already eliminated from the playoff picture. The Heat are in a good position to nail down the second seed in the Eastern Conference as a win puts them up a game with just two remaining but there is not a lot of confidence in backing a team that has been so inconsistent. Granted it is a revenge game but being down 3-0 in the season series tells us something.

Building off that 0-3 record against Boston is the fact that Miami has struggled all season against the top teams in the league. The Heat are 36-5 against teams ranked outside the top 16 in the NBA but they are just 19-19 against the top 16 including a pretty bad 8-14 record against the top 10. Boston meanwhile is 24-14 against the league's top 16 teams including a solid 14-8 against the top ten and those 14 wins are tied for second most in the NBA. These records alone make Miami a weak favorite of six points.

Miami is just 13-25 ATS as a home favorite this season while going 18-30 ATS in its last 48 games against teams that are outscoring opponents by three or more ppg. This includes a 2-6 ATS home record against teams that possess a winning road record. Boston meanwhile is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games as an underdog despite the Thursday loss and this game matches the largest amount of points the Celtics have gotten this season, which happened to be against Miami resulting in an outright Boston win. 10* (703) Boston Celtics

I played on the Denver/Oklahoma City 'over' last night and one bad quarter, the first quarter had 34 combined points, killed that ticket. The Nuggets are now back home which should give them a good opportunity to see a higher scoring game on back-to-back nights. The low scoring game last night extended the Denver run to 10-1-1 to the 'under' in its last 12 games and while it may seem like bad judgment to go against the streak, it is that streak that is giving us value in the total.

Minnesota is coming off a lower than expected scoring game last time out as it stayed 'under' against Phoenix on Wednesday. The Timberwolves are now 3-1 to the 'under' in their last four games and while the streak is not nearly as long as that of the Nuggets, it still is providing value in my opinion. Minnesota is 8-4 to the 'over' in its last 12 road games and the bad defense has been the catalyst. Overall the Timberwolves have allowed 100 or more points in 11 of their last 13 games.

While there is value in this total based on recent results, there is also value because of what has taken place in the first three meetings in this season series. The first three meetings between Denver and Minnesota have had two games go 'over' and those were with very high totals, all of which were higher than tonight's. The lone game that went 'under' had a total of 222.5 and it finished with 213 points which would have been a push with the over/under for this meeting.

Denver is 7-4 to the 'over' this season when playing with no rest and the first game taking place on the road to the travel aspect has played a role in higher scoring games in the second of a back-to-back set. Also, the Nuggets are 61-35 to the 'over in their last 96 home games after having won six or seven of their last eight games and 13-3 to the 'over' against teams that average six or more made three-pointers per game. Meanwhile Minnesota is 11-4 to the 'over' against divisional opponents this season. 10* Over (509) Minnesota Timberwolves/(510) Denver Nuggets

This is the last chance for Boston. Chicago currently has control of the top seed in the Eastern Conference and a win over the Celtics would all but eliminate them from the race for the top seed. The Bulls would be four games ahead of Boston with four to go in the regular season. With the Bulls being 34-5 at home this season, they are getting a lot of love in this matchup with over two-thirds of the action on Chicago yet we have not seen the line move as of Thursday morning.

Back to the Celtics. A win closes them to within two games of Chicago with a game at Miami being the lone remaining test and should they win out and catch the bulls for the tie, they win the tiebreaker over Chicago based on a better conference record. The Celtics enter this game with a 23-15 road record which is tied for second best in the Eastern Conference and they are 5-2 in their last seven games away from home after suffering a three-game road losing streak in mid-March.

While Chicago looks to be on pace for the number one seed in the Eastern Conference, not everything is perfect. The Bulls were beaten on the boards for the third time in five games Tuesday against Phoenix, although they're still outrebounding opponents by a league-high 5.56 rpg, and they let a 22-point lead in the second half dwindle to two before pulling out a 97-94 win. Motivation could have played a big part in that and there will not be lack of that tonight but the same goes for the other side as well.

The Celtics are not underdogs very often and especially underdogs of a significant number. Boston is 8-2 ATS as an underdog this season including a percent 4-0 ATS when grabbing three or more points. The Celtics have gotten this many points only once all season when they received 6.5 points against Miami way back in November. One of those ATS losses came here against Chicago as they lost by 11 points and Boston is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 road games revenging a road loss over the last two years. 10* (501) Boston Celtics

I played New Orleans on Sunday as it handled the Pacers and will once again back the Hornets as the lack of respect continues. New Orleans is currently in seventh place in the Western Conference, trailing Portland by a half-game and ahead of Memphis by a half-game. The only real threat to knocking them out of the playoff picture is tonight's opponent as Houston is the only remaining team in the Western Conference that still has a chance that isn't already mathematically eliminated.

The Rockets are coming off a brutal loss last night at home against Sacramento and that could have been the nail in the coffin with just four games remaining. That snapped a two-game winning streak and dropped Houston three games out of the playoff picture. That obviously makes this game a must win for the Rockets but even they know it is likely done. "It was definitely an opportunity wasted," Rockets center Chuck Hayes said. "If we were going to go down, we didn

Memphis has now played three straight games that have gone 'under' the number and none were ever in jeopardy of going 'over'. Meanwhile the Clippers have stayed 'under' the number in their last two games with the most recent one against the Thunder staying 'under' by more than 15 points. These recent results give us excellent value in this total in my opinion as the number has been adjusted just enough to make it a value play as well as making it a contrarian selection.

I played Memphis to go 'over' in its last game against Minnesota and it really should have. Memphis shot 51.1 percent from the floor and while the Timberwolves shot 48.6 percent from the floor, they hoisted only 72 shots, well below their season average, as they committed 26 turnovers. The Grizzlies defense has allowed fewer than 100 points in seven of their last eight games but in reality, the defense is not that great as they allow 45.8 percent shooting including 46.6 percent at home, sixth worst in the NBA.

The Clippers offense has been hit or miss lately but they are shooting a very healthy 46.5 percent from the floor over their last five games while averaging 98.8 ppg and that average should be higher. A low number of field goal attempts have played into that. The defense meanwhile has allowed 102.2 ppg over that five-game stretch and the Grizzlies offense should take advantage as they are shooting 52.5 percent from the floor over the last five games.

The first two meetings of this series have played 'under' and that also helps with the value here. The problem has been bad shooting by one team in each game as Memphis shot 41.8 percent in the first game and the Clippers shot 40 percent in the second game. Those two efforts are definite aberrations as based on overall, home/road splits and recent stats, no team is below 45 percent shooting on both offense or defense and that percentage is a key number. They finally combine for a high-scoring game Tuesday. 10* Over (667) Los Angeles Clippers/(668) Memphis Grizzlies

Indiana is riding a three-game winning streak but all of those wins came at home and now the Pacers hit the road where they are just 13-26 on the season. This is a rare game against the opposing conference as late season games usually stay within the conference and that is not a good thing for Indiana which is 9-20 against the Western Conference on the season. The Pacers are 11-17-1 ATS in those games including four straight losses against the number.

New Orleans meanwhile is coming off a loss at home against Memphis on Friday and I expect a big bounceback here. I played on the Hornets two games back when they defeated Portland at home and am going along the same lines here with value on their side coming off a loss. While Indiana has struggled out of conference, the Hornets have flourished, going 18-11 straight up and 17-11-1 ATS against the Eastern Conference. The Hornets are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games against teams with a losing record.

One big factor that seems to be big news is the injury situation for the Hornets. They lost forward David West for the season with a torn ACL which is no doubt a huge loss. However, taking his place in the starting lineup is Carl Landry who was brought over from the Kings at the trade deadline and he has done a great job. He is averaging 11.1 ppg with New Orleans but he has scored 19, 24, 21 and 19 points in the four games he has started while averaging six rpg.

The Pacers are 10-29 against teams ranked in the top 16 in the league and this is a revenge game for the Hornets as well as they lost to Indiana by a point earlier this season which snapped a five-game winning streak in this series. This is a game New Orleans needs since it is in eighth place in the Western Conference and have five tough games left on the schedule to close the season. Indiana is just 6-14 ATS this season coming off a home win and 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games following a win of any sort. 10* (518) New Orleans Hornets

Memphis picked up a huge win last night on the road at New Orleans to pull even with Hornets for seventh place in the Western Conference. I do not expect a total letdown here based on the importance of the game, but after allowing just 81 points last night, I do expect a letdown from the defense. The Grizzlies defense has allowed fewer than 100 points in six of their last seven games but in reality, the defense is not that great as they allow 45.8 percent shooting including 46.5 percent at home, sixth worst in the NBA.

Minnesota is coming off a game last night against Miami and it was actually in it for a while before the Heat closed the door with a 21-1 run to start the third quarter. The Timberwolves allowed 111 points which was the ninth time in their last 10 games they have allowed 100 or more points as well as the 13th time in the last 15th. We cashed the 'under' last night but that was mostly due to Miami and what was expected. Minnesota has allowed 107.4 ppg in its last eight road games and that won't change here.

Both Memphis and Minnesota are coming off 'unders' last night which I feel adds value to this number as does the fact that the first three meetings in this season series have all played 'under'. The closing total has come down in each game and this one is currently only a point higher than the last meeting so there is not a significant change. In each of those three games, Memphis scored 102 or more points while the Timberwolves scored 95 points or less. I expect the former to stay the same and the latter to improve here.

Minnesota is 22-9 to the 'over' in its last 31 road games with a total between 200 and 209.5 while Memphis is 20-9 to the 'over' in its last 29 home games against teams allowing 46 percent shooting or worse. The Timberwolves are also part of a subtle contrarian situation. Play the 'over' with a total greater than or equal to 200 and with a team going under the total by 48 or more points total in its last ten games with a winning percentage of .250 or worse. This situation is 44-21 (67.7 percent) to the 'over'. 10* Over (801) Minnesota Timberwolves/(802) Memphis Grizzlies

This is the fourth and final meeting of the season between the Bucks and Pacers and this one is by far the most important as playoff implications are on the line tonight. Because of the importance of games such as this, there tends to be an emphasis on defense and that is backed up even more based on recent results from both sides. The last two meetings of this series both went 'over' so going the other way goes against conventional thinking but that is where the value lies.

Milwaukee is coming off a rare high-scoring game as it tallied 104 points against Toronto and the game went 'over', just the 29th 'over' in 74 games for the Bucks. The Bucks have actually gone 'over' in three of their last four which sets up a good spot. Milwaukee uses strong defense and a slow tempo effort on offense in its gamelan and that is the main reason so many of its games have been low scoring. Milwaukee is averaging 184.3 ppg in all of its games this season and that average only jumps to 186.8 ppg in road games.

On the season, Milwaukee is 20-6 to the 'under' after one or more consecutive 'overs' so it rarely puts together consecutive high-scoring games. The Bucks are more of an 'under' team home than on the road but this situation is on our side. When playing two or more consecutive games on the road and the previous game went 'over', the Bucks have come back with a 6-1 record on the 'under' in that next game while averaging just 183.1 ppg. The lone game that went 'over' eclipsed the total by just a half-point.

Indiana obviously sees more points scored in its games than Milwaukee does but the Pacers are 23-11 to the 'under' in their last 34 home games as a favorite of six points or fewer. In the last meeting, the Pacers put up 103 points in their victory and Milwaukee is 12-3 to the 'under' in its 15 games this season when revenging a loss when the opponent scored 100 or more points. The Bucks are 23-11 to the 'under' against teams allowing 99 or more ppg and 26-12 to the 'under' against teams averaging 99 or more ppg. 10* Under (505) Milwaukee Bucks/(506) Indiana Pacers

After stumbling into the All-Star break with three straight losses including a defeat against the lowly Cavaliers, the Lakers have picked it up a notch in the second half. They are the hottest team in basketball right now, going 15-1 over their last 16 games with the only loss coming against the Heat in Miami. Los Angeles is a perfect 9-0 at home over this stretch and this includes its last six games all taking place at home which is a big advantage because of no travel. But of course, we are going against all of this.

Dallas is playing some pretty good basketball of its own as it is riding a five-game winning streak following a pretty uneven stretch where it went 3-5, losing all five games against Western Conference playoff teams. Despite the recent Lakers run, the Mavericks are just a half-game behind them for second place in the Western Conference standings so this is a huge game for both sides. Despite the teams being less than a game apart, the linesmakers are not giving Dallas much credit with this inflated line.

Dallas played last night in this same building as it defeated the Clippers so the lack of travel will help and playing with no rest has not been a problem. The Mavericks are 13-4 in the second game of a back-to-back set (12-5 ATS) and with the second game taking place on the road, Dallas is 11-3 in 14 games (10-4 ATS). Surprisingly, it has responded better off of wins than losses which is usually the opposite in this league but the Mavericks are 8-13 ATS after a loss and 30-19-2 ATS when coming off a win.

Dallas is 12-4 ATS as a road underdog this season, winning 10 of those games outright and it has been an underdog of six or more points only three times, going 2-1 ATS. The only loss was when Dirk Nowitzki was out. The Lakers meanwhile are just 1-9 ATS this season when involved in big runs, having won 15 or more of their last 20 games and they are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 home games following a game where they allowed 85 or fewer points. Also, Los Angeles is just 2-11 ATS in its last 13 Thursday spotlight games. 10* (703) Dallas Mavericks

We cashed with the Golden St./Oklahoma City 'over' last night and it was a fortunate win as the game went into overtime and that was needed to push the number 'over' the total. Because of that, we are catching a much better number tonight to go the other way and it is not only loaded with value but we also have the bounce angle in our favor. Golden St. has now gone 'over' in three of its last four games and despite hitting last night, it has seen a lot more games go 'under' on the road, 24 of 38 in fact.

The value lies in the 'under' and one quick comparison shows the difference from last night. The O/U posted tonight is 3.5 points less than what it was last night between the Warriors and Thunder but the scoring variance shows it is not a big enough drop. Oklahoma City averages 205.6 ppg in its games while Memphis averages 198.2 ppg so based on simple match, we should see a total that is roughly seven points lower than last night but that is not the case. That high scoring game has inflated this number.

Memphis is coming off a high scoring game last time out as it defeated San Antonio 111-104 on Sunday and that is also helping with the value of this one. 22 of 36 home game for Memphis have gone 'over' but of those 22 games, the closing total was less than 199 in 14 of those and only three of those had closing totals of 210 or more. So while the majority of games have gone 'over' the main reason is due to low totals. The Grizzlies are 21-16 to the 'under' when playing a team with a losing record.

In addition, the first two meetings have gone 'over' so the posted number tonight definitely has to take that into account. Those games saw 227 and 224 points scored so that will sway the public once again to hope for another high scoring game. Golden St. is 21-9 to the 'under' in its last 30 road games in the second half of the season against teams averaging 99 or more ppg and 15-7 to the 'under' in its last 22 road games where the total is greater than or equal to 210. 10* Under (517) Golden St. Warriors/(518) Memphis Grizzlies

Houston has been playing some its best basketball of late as it recently just had a five-game winning streak snapped at Miami on Sunday. The Rockets run pushed them over .500 where they are now three games above .500 and they are sniffing the playoffs as they trail Memphis by two and a half games for the eighth and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. While Houston is the better team overall, the questions remains whether or not it should be such large road favorites.

New Jersey returns home following a three-game roadtrip where it went 1-2. The Nets are 16-18 at home this season which is far from stellar but it is better than the Rockets 16-21 record on the road which makes the large home points even more attractive. New Jersey has been a home underdog more than a home favorite for obvious reasons and it has done well in that spot, going 16-11 ATS when getting points including a 5-2 ATS mark in its last seven games.

Houston has been a road favorite only eight times this season and while it is a respectable 5-3 ATS, this is the biggest pointspread it has had off all of those games which makes it even more difficult to back it in a spot like this. The Rockets are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as road favorites between 5.0 and 10.5 points and those games were when the Rockets were a solid contender in the Western Conference. New Jersey meanwhile is 22-12 ATS this season against teams with a winning record.

Playing against the Western Conference has played a part in that and overall this season, New Jersey is 12-1 ATS in its 13 home games against the Western Conference with the only loss coming against San Antonio. Also, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are shooting team between 43.5 and 45.5 percent and after allowing 50 percent or worse shooting in two straight games, going up against teams allowing between 45.5 and 47.5 percent. This situation is 47-20 ATS (70.1 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (754) New Jersey Nets

This is not a good spot for Boston and the short road favorite price is getting the public all over the Celtics. Boston is coming off a win last night against Minnesota on the road but it was not easy and some will argue the Celtics will come back with a strong effort tonight. They are a great road team with a 22-13 record and they are fighting for the number one spot in the Eastern Conference while also trying to fight off Miami which is just a half-game back. The situation however is not a good one.

The problem is that Boston has been horrible this season playing with no rest as it is 4-11 ATS in the second game of a back-to-back set. The Celtics are 3-8 ATS when the second game is on the road and while going 4-0 straight up when the second game is at home, they are just 3-8 straight up when the second game is on the road. They are just 17-18 ATS on the road and while going 5-2 ATS as a road underdog, they are just 12-16 ATS as a road favorite.

Indiana has dropped two straight games against two of the worst teams in the NBA, Detroit and Sacramento and the latter came at home on Friday by 17 points so it will be out looking for a better performance on its home floor. While this game is big for Boston as far as playoff seedings, it is even bigger for Indiana. The Pacers are currently eighth in the Eastern Conference, just a game ahead of Charlotte and two games ahead of Milwaukee so it is getting to be do or die time.

Boston easily won the first three meetings this season by 12,12 and 11 points so the Pacers are looking to avenge those defeats as well. The Pacers offense, which averages close to 100 ppg, has been held to 88 points or fewer in all three of those meetings but we should see a better effort here as Indiana has scored 100 or more points in 12 of its last 14 games at home. While the Celtics no rest record is bad, they are also just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games against teams with a losing record. 10* (734) Indiana Pacers

Toronto is coming off an embarrassing 38-point loss last night in Golden St. which is driving this line higher than it should be. A quick comparison shows that the Warriors are three games better than the Clippers yet they were favored by seven points Friday while the Clippers are laying an additional four points tonight. The Raptors are obviously not a strong team, especially on the road as witnessed last night, but this is exactly the type of game where a bounceback can be expected.

Los Angeles is coming off a tough loss last night to the rival Lakers as it fell behind big early and came close to fighting all the way back. That presents us with a letdown situation tonight despite the loss as the Clippers go from playing one of the best teams to one of the worst teams and that will make it a challenge to get up for. In a huge swing, the Clippers go from 9.5-point underdogs to double-digit favorites and that is an absolutely huge jump.

This game sets up very similar to another recent contest for the Raptors. After getting destroyed in Denver by 33 points, they came back and fought hard against Phoenix, losing by just right points. Clearly, that is part of what we call the bounce angle as no matter how bad teams are, stringing together back-to-back poor performances is rare in this league. With this being the last road game for Toronto on this trip, we should see a strong effort to make up for the debacle from last night.

The Clippers have been favored by eight or more points only three times all season and they are 0-3 ATS in those games. Also, they are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. The Raptors fall into a solid situation also as we play on road underdogs of 10 or more points after a double-digit loss going up against an opponent after a combined score of 215 points or more in two straight games. This situation is 28-9 ATS (75.7 percent) since 1996. 10* (511) Toronto Raptors

I played against New Orleans last night and while early players lost, late players won on Utah as the Hornets closed at -5. New Orleans needed overtime to bring that victory home and now it plays its second of back-to-back games tonight against the Suns which are on the outside of the playoff picture looking in. The Hornets are three games under .500 on the road now after last night and playing with no rest, they are 5-11 on the season including a 2-7 record when both games take place on the road.

The Suns are three games out of the eighth and final playoff spot in the Western Conference so every game is meaningful at this point. Phoenix is coming off a home win over Toronto on Wednesday which came after the instant classic on Tuesday against the Lakers, a triple-overtime setback. Phoenix responded well against the Raptors after an expected slow start and now with a day of rest, the Suns should be ready. The home team has won both meetings this season and five of the last six going back to last year.

After being big road favorites last night, the Hornets go back to the underdog role tonight and this is not a good number as they are 0-5 ATS in their last five games as an underdog of fewer than five points. Meanwhile the Suns are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games overall with the one push coming at New Orleans coincidentally. Phoenix lost by five points which sets up a revenge situation tonight and the Suns extend their 3-0-1 ATS mark in this series as they keep pace in the playoff picture. 10* (872) Phoenix Suns

Utah returns home from a 0-3 roadtrip which dropped it to four games out of the eighth and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. With four teams all trying to grab that final position, it is going to be an uphill climb for the Jazz but six of their final ten games are at home including the next four and holding strong on their home court is imperative. The Utah home floor has not been as strong as it has been in years past but the Jazz are still five games over .500 at EnergySolutions Arena.

While the Jazz have been on the road, the Hornets have been home for an extended period, playing five straight games in New Orleans. It went 3-2 and it clings on to the seventh spot in the Western Conference so these games are important for the Hornets as well. The difference is that playing on the road has been a challenge where they are 16-20 on the season including a 5-9 record over their last 14 games since the end of January. New Orleans is 19-12-2 ATS as an underdog but just 15-21-1 ATS as a favorite.

The includes the Hornets going 4-8 ATS as a road favorite and having a losing road record with the Jazz having a winning home record makes the line an interesting one in that New Orleans should probably not be laying points. And the line has actually gone up from the opening number. Utah has been a home underdog only four times all season long with three of those coming against the Celtics, Spurs and Lakers, and it is 2-2 ATS in those games with one of the losses being by only a half-point.

Coming off a big loss last night is not a big deal as Utah is 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight games following a double-digit loss while going 3-1-1 ATS in its last five games after allowing 100 or more points. The Hornets are 10-23 ATS in their last 33 road games after playing two consecutive home games and 11-23 ATS in their last 34 games against teams allowing 99 or more ppg. New Orleans is also 3-10-1 ATS in its last 14 games following a spread loss and it has covered just once in the last nine meetings in Utah. 10* (804) Utah Jazz

Everybody is down on New York right now making this the best time to pounce. The Knicks have dropped three straight games and the media is all over them for being no where near the team they thought they would be at this point. On Monday, the Knicks lost for the sixth time in seven games and fell to 7-9 since acquiring Carmelo Anthony and against Boston, Anthony scored 22 points, but neither he nor Amare Stoudemire had a field goal in the fourth quarter and that inconsistency has been the problem.

The Magic won their third straight games as they easily handled the Cavaliers although they did fail to cover by a point after getting outscored 28-17 in the fourth quarter. It was the fourth win in the last six road games for Orlando which improved to 20-15 away from home. The problem with the recent run however is that all four of those road wins came against teams that are not in current playoff positions. The Magic are now 18-25-1 ATS this season following a win while going just 11-15 ATS as a road favorite.

Orlando has won five straight meetings in this series with the last four of those coming in Orlando and the last one was especially troubling for the Knicks. The Knicks led 84-79 entering the final period but were outscored 37-26 to lose by six points. It was Anthony's fourth game with New York and it happened to come right after their big road win in Miami which it may have still been celebrating from. This is the first crack at home this season against the Magic for New York and this would be a good time to right the ship.

This game sets up very good for New York as it is 45-28 ATS revenging two straight losses where the opponent scored 100 or more points and despite dropping the last game as an underdog, the Knicks are 23-9 ATS as underdogs this season while going 22-6 ATS in 28 games when the total is between 200 and 209.5. Orlando meanwhile is 8-19 ATS in its last 27 games coming off a double-digit road win while going 1-8 ATS in its last nine games after going 'under' the total in three or more consecutive games. 10* (766) New York Knicks

Oklahoma City has been involved in three straight low scoring contests as it has had results of 181, 181 and 188 points and that is providing us value here tonight. The Thunder have actually gone 'under' in six straight games which is a huge aberration since before this stretch, it had gone 'over' in 38 of its first 64 games including one push. The last two low scoring games have come at home which is even more of an aberration as it was 21-11 to the 'over' in its prior 32 home games.

Utah is coming off a loss at Memphis on Monday by 18 points as the offense was completely held in check. The Jazz still shot 48.5 percent but the problem was that they committed 17 turnovers and managed to put up just 66 shots which is over 14 less than its season average. The 85 points scored against the Grizzlies were the fewest since scoring 83 points way back on February 11th against the Suns. Since then, Utah has scored 100 or more points in 12 of its last 16 games, averaging 103.3 ppg over this stretch.

The Thunder have put up fewer than 100 points in three straight games and this is definitely surprising coming from a team that is averaging 101 ppg this season. This is the perfect opportunity to bust out as they have not gone more than three games this season without scoring 100 points. I thought they would have been able to be productive last time out against Toronto but they shot only 40 percent from the floor against one of the worst defenses in the league. Utah falls into this category as well.

Utah is 8-1 to the 'over' this season as a road underdog between 6.5 and 12 points while Oklahoma City is 15-7 to the 'over' this season as a home favorite between 6.5 and 12 points. The 'over' is 27-8 in Utah's last 35 games against division opponents and the 'over' is 26-9 in its last 35 games against teams with winning percentages between .600 and .700. The Thunder are 23-9 to the 'over' in their last 32 games after playing two straight home games which also helps the offense in what should be a bounce back performance. 10* Over (761) Utah Jazz/(762) Oklahoma City Thunder

I played on the Hawks the last time these two teams met in Atlanta when it staged a big fourth quarter comeback to defeat the Bulls. Nine days later, Chicago got its revenge at home as it whacked the Hawks by 18 points and now the revenge is on the home team that is once again getting points. It has been a rough stretch for Atlanta but it is coming off a win and cover on Sunday against the Pistons and that should provide some much needed momentum which came after two straight blowout losses at home. The Bulls lost at Indiana in overtime on Friday which snapped an eight-game winning streak but they bounced back last night with a 40-point victory over Sacramento at home. That lopsided win helps us here as it goes with the bounce angle, especially considering the Bulls are on the road now. Chicago shot 61.3 percent last night including an unheard of 70.6 percent from long range (12 for 17) and had 34 assists on 49 made baskets and those numbers certainly will not be happening again tonight. Chicago improved to 31-4 at home which is the best record in the Eastern Conference and the second best home record in all of the NBA. Things are different on the road where Chicago is 19-15, still very respectable, but it still brings up the question about should it be favored on the road against a playoff team? Atlanta is 21-14 at home which is slightly better than the Bulls road record so that is not being taken into consideration as only the overall records are driving this line. Chicago is 13-5 this season when playing with no rest but the breakdown puts it at a disadvantage here. When that second game is at home, the Bulls are 9-1 but when on the road, they are just 4-4 both straight up and against the number. This is the final home game of a six-game homestand for the Hawks and with the cover against Detroit, Atlanta is now 14-3 ATS in its last 17 home games after playing four consecutive home games. The Hawks have covered four straight at home in this series as well. 10* (652) Atlanta Hawks

Orlando is coming off a very low scoring game last time out as it totaled 167 points against the Nuggets on Friday and that game stayed 'under' by 37.5 points. The Magic have actually been involved in three straight low scoring games with 182 points being the most totaled over that stretch but this is a great situation for that trend to reverse itself. Orlando is capable of scoring big points against bad teams with bad defenses as it tallied 106, 120 and 111 points against the Kings, Warriors and Suns prior to this recent run. Cleveland certainly fits the bill as being a bad team with a bad defense. The Cavaliers are allowing 105.5 ppg on 47.8 percent shooting, 27th and 28th respectively in the NBA. The numbers do not get much better at home and facing a team that has struggled over its last three games on offense is not a good thing as good teams find way to bust out and that is what Orlando will do. They are coming off four straight games that went 'under' and that is definitely helping out with the value in this game. The Cleveland offense going up against the Orlando defense seems to be a concern here but with a total this low, it should not even come into play. Based on season averages, the Cavaliers can be projected to score 95 points and based on home/road splits, that number increases to 97 points. That assures an 'over' if Orlando hits the century mark and I expect the Magic to go well above that. Since after Christmas, Orlando has averaged 110.9 ppg in eight road games against teams not currently in playoff positions. This is the fourth and final meeting of the season between Orlando and Cleveland with the 'over' 2-1. The two games that had a closing total in the 190's, similar to this one, went 'over' while the most recent meeting went 'under' but that total was set at 206 which provides value in this one. The 'over' is 32-21-1 for the Cavaliers this season following a loss and the 'over' is 10-4 in their last 14 games against winning teams. For the Magic. The 'over' is 7-3 in its last 10 games when listed as a road favorite. 10* Over (603) Orlando Magic/(604) Cleveland Cavaliers

After getting beaten by Denver by 15 points as a favorite, Atlanta went out two nights later and was hammered by Miami by 21 points. A big finish for the Hawks made that game more respectable as they trailed at one point by 32 points before Miami turned off the jets. That makes this game pretty important for the Hawks as they need to right this ship before facing Chicago on Tuesday. After snapping a three-game home losing streak with, Atlanta won two straight at home prior to this stretch so this will be a hungry team. While the Hawks have been losing, the Pistons have been winning. Detroit has won two straight games over Toronto and New York but both of those came at home. Beating the Raptors is far from impressive and while a win over New York seems very impressive, it came the night after the Knicks won by 21 points at home against Memphis setting up a letdown spot. Playing on the road is a different story for Detroit which is 7-27, one of only 10 NBA teams sitting with single-digit victories. The Pistons have dumped six straight games on the road with their last road win coming in Cleveland back on February 9th. Overall, six of the seven wins have come against teams currently not in any playoff position so this is a perfect team to come visit for Atlanta to move in the right position and there is still a shot at moving up. Atlanta can nary afford to rest on its earlier success as it still has a remote chance of catching the Magic for the fourth playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. Atlanta is just 3-7 in its last 10 games but all seven of those losses have come against playoff teams. Overall, Atlanta is 4-17 against the league top ten but 35-13 against the rest of the NBA. The Hawks have beaten the Pistons five consecutive games at Philips Arena and they are 13-3 ATS in their 16 home games after playing four straight games at home so long homestands have been kind. Also, they are 4-1 ATS in their last five games against teams with a winning percentage below .400. 10* (704) Atlanta Hawks

I was expecting the Celtics to be the road favorites here simply because of the better overall record but instead the line came out even and Boston is actually getting a point in some place. This could change as we go through Saturday but we are catching a lot value in the Celtics in my opinion. Boston is coming off a disaster last night as it lost by 17 points in Houston and the game was not even that close as the Celtics trailed by 29 points at one point and a big fourth quarter made it look a little more respectable. New Orleans has been off since Wednesday when it defeated the Suns by five points at home. This is the Hornets fifth straight home game before they take to the road and they are currently 3-1 and a win here would be a big one before their roadtrip. However, New Orleans has been very inconsistent lately as it is just 9-14 in its last 23 games and despite being 14 games over .500 at home, the Hornets have gone just 5-5 in 10 home games over this stretch. Three wins over the Clippers, Wizards and Kings are unimpressive. Boston is 19-12 on the road this season after the setback last night but that is still the second best road record in the Eastern Conference. Being a half-game behind the Bulls for the overall top spot, these games are becoming big for Boston with each one getting more important. The Celtics have been bad with no rest but we have to remember they were the favorite in the majority of those. They are 3-11 ATS but a more respectable 6-8 straight up and they are 2-2 ATS when both back-to-back games are on the road. The Celtics have a score to settle and while road revenge is a tough angle to play, Boston remembers the Hornets being just one of six teams it has lost to at home. Playing with revenge in this situation is a great scenario for Boston, especially coming off that bad loss last night. Boston is 17-6 ATS in its last 23 road games revenging a same season loss and it is 22-9 ATS in its last 31 games following a loss including 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games following a double-digit loss. 10* (505) Boston Celtics

Miami is coming off a horrible offensive effort against Oklahoma City in its last game and we should expect a big turnaround tonight. Miami was held to 85 points against a below average Thunder defense and this is a perfect opportunity for a bounceback. In their last five games after scoring fewer than 90 points, the Heat have averaged 106.2 ppg so they have been able to pick up the offense following a poor effort. More important for us here is that Miami went 4-1 to the 'over' in those next games. The Hawks meanwhile are also coming off a poor offensive showing as they scored just 87 points against Denver. The Nuggets are one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA both overall and on the road and while Atlanta faces a tougher challenge, it should be up to the challenge despite being very inconsistent over the last couple weeks. Miami has one of the best defenses in the NBA but over its last 17 road games, it has allowed 101.3 ppg after allowing just 89.8 ppg in its first 16 road games. These recent results has given us value in the total tonight as well as the fact that the first two games in this series this season have been low scoring. The first meeting had 166 points while the second meeting had 182 points and that included overtime. Both games stayed 'under' the total and those closing over/unders were 192.5 and 194 respectively so we are getting close to 10 points going the other way in this meeting which is taking place only two months later. Note that Miami is 11-4 to the 'over' in its last 15 road games after going 'over' just six times in its first 18 road games and despite that, this is only the second time in the last seven games Miami has had a total in the 180's. Miami is 23-9 to the 'over' in its last 32 games after scoring 85 points or fewer while Atlanta is 68-44 to the 'over' in its last 112 games after playing three consecutive home games. We catch an excellent number tonight and go contrarian. 10* Over (807) Miami Heat/(808) Atlanta Hawks

Orlando comes into Friday following an overtime win against Milwaukee which followed a blowout loss against the Lakers two days prior. The victory over the Bucks capped a five-game roadtrip where the Magic went 3-2 but just 1-4 against the number and going back further we see Orlando riding a 1-6 ATS run which provides value for tonight. This is the first home game in 12 days for the Magic and considering their last two home games resulted in losses, we can expect a hungry home team tonight. I played against the Nuggets Wednesday and they looked solid once again against Atlanta. Denver has been riding high since the trade of Carmelo Anthony and Chauncey Billups as it is 9-2 with the only losses coming against the Clippers and Blazers. Both of those were on the road where it is 4-2 over this span to move to 14-20 on the season. This is the third of four straight road games for the Nuggets, all against playoff bound teams with this being the toughest of the bunch. This is the second meeting this season between Orlando and Denver and the Nuggets were able to win the first game by 17 points which sets up a big revenge spot for the home team. Carmelo Anthony had a huge game and the Nuggets outscored Orlando 46-22 in the paint and that is certainly something the Magic will want to avenge. It will be up to the Magic defense which is third in the NBA in scoring defense at home as the Nuggets have shot 53 percent or better in three consecutive games. This setup is not good for Denver as it is 2-14 ATS in its last 16 road games off two or more consecutive wins as an underdog while going just 2-13 ATS in its last 15 road games when playing against teams with a winning percentage between .600 and .700. Orlando also falls into a great situation. Play on home favorites after failing to cover five or six of their last seven games, in a game involving two teams with winning percentages between .600 and .750. This situation is 49-21 (70 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (806) Orlando Magic

I won with the hawks last night and will go right back with them here. Last night's win over Milwaukee was by 25 points and the blowout occurred early which meant the starters got a lot of rest which is very beneficial when playing the next night. No Atlanta player logged more than 34 minutes which is the equivalent of fewer than three quarters. Even with that the Hawks are a solid 11-8 ATS when playing with no rest including 7-3 ATS the last 10 and they are 7-0 straight up in the seven times the second game is home. Atlanta hit a rough stretch where it lost four straight games but it was able to bounce back Saturday and then carried that into last night. That brought the Hawks to 20-12 at home which is far from strong but we have to remember that this is after a 3-5 start to the season at Philips Arena. The Hawks are now two and a half games behind Orlando in the Eastern Conference standings and into fifth place which means no home court advantage. That makes each game from here on out very important if it wants to catch Orlando. I played against the Nuggets Monday and they were surprisingly a winner once again. Denver has been riding high since the trade of Carmelo Anthony and Chauncey Billups as it is 8-2 with the only losses coming against the Clippers and Blazers. Both of those were on the road where it is 3-2 over this span to move to 13-20 on the season. This is the second of four straight road games for the Nuggets, all against playoff bound teams so this will certainly be a test to see if the recent run is for real. Denver's run has been impressive but only one of the last six games has come against teams in current playoff positions and the Nuggets are 5-14-2 ATS in their last 21 road games against teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. They are also 15-29 ATS in their last 44 games with a line between +3 and -3 while going 13-24 in their last 37 games in the second of consecutive road games. Atlanta is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings at home and that streak continues here. 10* (602) Atlanta Hawks

I won with the Bucks on Saturday as they defeated the Sixers pretty handily in a revenge spot. They came back on Sunday and were flattened by the Celtics however as they managed only 56 points against Boston. Normally, we'd look for a bounceback in a situation like this however, losing has been very contagious with Milwaukee this season as the defeats have been coming in bunches. The Bucks have followed a up a loss after a win with another loss in 12 of 15 occurrences this season. Atlanta hit a rough stretch where it lost four straight games but it was able to bounce back Saturday with a win over Portland. The brought the Hawks to 19-12 at home which is far from strong but we have to remember that this is after a 3-5 start to the season at Philips Arena. The recent skid has dropped the Hawks three and a half games behind Orlando in the Eastern Conference standings and into fifth place which means no home court advantage. That makes each game from here on out very important. This has been a series of revenge games and winners so far this season as Milwaukee won the first meeting by 17 points following the playoff loss from last season, Atlanta came back with a 15-point win and the Bucks then won the last meeting by eight points. That of course sets up another revenge situation tonight for the Hawks. Milwaukee was actually getting two points at home in that last meeting and with the switch in venue, we are getting value with Atlanta here. The Hawks seemed rejuvenated after snapping the winning streak and getting Sunday off as they seemed to have a little bit more juice. Atlanta welcomes back Al Horford tonight and it will be good to have a full lineup once again as it has been rare of late. The offensive effort in its last game does not bode well for Milwaukee as it is 1-4 ATS in its last five games after scoring 75 points or fewer in its previous game and if the Hawks defense shows up for this one, it could be another long night for the Bucks offense. 10* (532) Atlanta Hawks

The streaky Hornets remain home following wins in their last two games over Dallas and Sacramento. They have now won four of their last games following a 4-12 run in late-January and mid-February which came right after a 10-game winning streak so the streakiness of this entire season continues. The only loss during this most recent run came at Chicago and that was one of the two games that Chris Paul missed after he was injured against Cleveland. Denver has been riding high since the trade of Carmelo Anthony and Chauncey Billups as it is 7-2 with the only losses coming against the Clippers and Blazers. Both of those were on the road where it is 2-2 over this span to move to 12-20 on the season. This is the first of four straight road games for the Nuggets, all against playoff bound teams so this will certainly be a test so see if the recent run is for real. They are coming off a 30-point home win which puts them in a bad spot here. New Orleans has won the first two meetings of this series this season which does set up double-revenge for the Nuggets but playing road revenge is a difficult angle especially for a team that is 11 games worse than the Hornets in home/road splits. The Hornets enter tonight

Golden St. was favored by three points at Minnesota exactly two weeks ago and now it I favored by only 3.5 points more on its home floor. The Warriors are coming off a big win Friday over Orlando in overtime and they will carry that momentum into this revenge game. This came after a miserable 2-5 roadtrip with the only wins being against Washington and Cleveland, the two worst teams in the Eastern Conference. They now face the two worst teams in the Western Conference tonight and tomorrow. Minnesota is on a two-game winning streak following home wins over Indiana and Utah but taking to the road has been a huge issue this season. The Timberwolves are just 5-27 on the road this year and while three of those have come in their last seven games, this situation does not call for them to add to it. Minnesota has not won three straight games at all this season and it is 0-3 on the year in its three previous attempts following two straight victories. Golden St. falls into a great situation with it being the first time it has occurred this season. Play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are coming off a win by 20 points or more over a divisional opponent going up against team that are coming off a home win. This situation is 26-6 ATS (81.2 percent) since 1996. The Warriors, which tallied 123 points against Orlando, are 16-4 ATS in their last 20 home games after scoring 120 or more points in their previous game. 10* (882) Golden St. Warriors

The Sixers have won the first two meetings this season against Milwaukee which brings up a double-revenge spot for the Bucks. Milwaukee has not played since Wednesday when it crushed the Cavaliers and it has now won two straight games. The other win came against Washington and while neither of those are very impressive, wins are big nonetheless as the Bucks are a game out of the eighth and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. With only 19 games remaining, every one is important. Philadelphia is making a charge in the Eastern Conference and it continues to be one of the top ATS teams in the NBA with a 41-23-1 ATS record. The problem here is that this spot is a horrible one as Philadelphia is coming off a home revenge win against rival Boston last night. That provides a big letdown spot for the Sixers which have been bad on the road to begin with as they are 12-20 away from home which is nearly the opposite of their 22-1 record at the Wells Fargo Center. The Bucks offense has been extremely inconsistent but they are 18-8 ATS in their last 26 games after scoring 105 points or more. And 25-11-2 in their last 38 games after scoring 100 points or more. Milwaukee also falls into a great situation. Play on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 after a win by 10 points or more going up against opponent an after a game where both teams scored 90 points or less. This situation is 25-6 ATS (80.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (512) Milwaukee Bucks

While normally staying away from road favorite, I feel this is a great opportunity to back the road team as the number is short enough to still have value. Both Boston and Philadelphia are coming off home losses on Wednesday and the key is to find out which team recovers and which teams carries that loss into tonight. The Celtics loss at home to the Clippers was horrendous and can be chalked up as a bad effort but it is a game they can easily recover from in the short time frame. Philadelphia meanwhile is coming off a devastating loss in overtime against Oklahoma City as it blew a five-point lead in the final minute and managed only four points in overtime. That type of defeat is tougher to overcome and facing a test like the one the Celtics will bring will make it even tougher. Philadelphia has been one of the better teams in the conference since a bad start to the season but it is hard to overlook its 6-15 record this season against teams ranked in the NBA's top ten. This is a revenge game for Philadelphia and it is actually a double-revenge scenario from two losses this season. The Sixers covered both of those games, losing by just five points combined but the situation is different this tome around. The first game, Boston was playing with no rest, where it is 3-10 ATS this season, and the second game was before a Christmas Day game at Orlando. Boston is 11-4 following a loss this season including a 4-1 record following a loss at home which includes wins in its last four games. The Celtics are now 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games following a loss and they are 11-1 ATS this season following non-covers in two or more consecutive games. They also fall into a great situation based on their most recent game. Play on favorites that are outscoring their opponents by six or more ppg after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half. This situation is 26-8 ATS (76.5 percent) over the last five seasons with the average point differential being +15.1 ppg. 10* (805) Boston Celtics

It is a pretty safe bet that everyone knows Miami is struggling right now. The Heat have lost five straight games and the most surprising part is that four of those have come at home. The media is bashing them, the fans are calling for head coach Erik Spoelstra's head and betters are running away fast. That leads to value and with a team as talented as Miami getting points at home, we have to grab them up as this game opened at Even in most place and quickly shot top Miami +2. While Miami is struggling, the Lakers are red hot. After the debacle that ended right before the All-Star break where the Lakers dropped three straight games and were on a 5-6 run, they have come back with vengeance as they have won their first eight games following the break. Five of those games have been on the road with four coming in pretty tough environments. This is probably not considered as big of a test as the game in San Antonio but I disagree as they will be facing a very desperate team. Even Kobe Bryant agrees.

The recent results for both teams is driving this total higher than it really should be in my opinion. Oklahoma City and Philadelphia have gone 'over' the total in three straight games with a large number of points in each game. The Thunder have averaged 221 ppg in their last three games while the Sixers have averaged 221 ppg over their last three games as well. That is going to be a public 'buy' on the 'over' no doubt and with the value hitting the other side, we will banking on a lower than expected scoring game. The Thunder have been a successful 'over' team this season, eclipsing the number in 37 of their 62 games. An average defense and an above-average offense have let to this but playing on the road, the numbers have been down. At home, Oklahoma City is averaging 209.5 in its games while on the road, this average drops to 204.6 ppg which is still less than the posted number for tonight. Conversely, the Sixers are averaging 194.8 ppg in their home games this season. As a quick comparison, Oklahoma City played Memphis in its last game which was also on the road. Memphis allows one more ppg on defense and averages one more ppg on offense than the Sixers yet that total closed three points less than tonight's. Philadelphia has not seen many totals this high and when it does, it is usually against horrible defenses which was the case in two recent games against Minnesota and Golden St. Oklahoma City's defense is far prom potent but it is far from one of the worst. The Sixers are allowing 94.4 ppg at home which is tied for the eighth fewest amount of points allowed in the league. They have been unable to slow down Oklahoma City the last three meetings and those have resulted in three Thunder wins as they averaged 112.3 ppg in those games. The focus for tonight will be on defense for Philadelphia. The 'under' is 11-4 in Oklahoma City's last 15 games as a road underdog while the 'under' is 5-0 in the Sixers last five home games against winning teams. 10* Under (607) Oklahoma City Thunder/(608) Philadelphia 76ers

After the debacle that ended right before the All-Star break where the Lakers dropped three straight games and were on a 5-6 run, they have come back with vengeance as they have won their first seven games following the break. The last game was the most impressive as they absolutely hammered the best team in the NBA, defeating the Spurs by 16 points in a game that was not as close as that final indicates. The Lakers built a 32 point leads in the second half before taking the foot off the pedal. While the Lakers are hot, the Hawks are not. They had a very impressive come-from-behind win over Chicago last Wednesday but they have dropped their two games since the, both of which came at home including a rather embarrassing 13-point loss to the Knicks in their most recent outing. I won with the Hawks in that game against the Bulls and part of the rationale for that Atlanta needed to start the four-game homestand strong. Just as important, the Hawks need to end it strong as well before a rematch with Chicago. Los Angeles now has to try and focus once again but this time against a desperate team. That win over San Antonio puts it in a letdown spot and with a game at Miami on deck, it also puts the Lakers in prime lookahead mode. Prior to the recent homestand for the Hawks, they had a rough roadtrip, and the worse loss of it came against the Lakers as they were defeated by 24 points. That obviously sets up a revenge situation and one similar to last season when they avenged a loss at Los Angeles with a 17-point home win. The Lakers has been outstanding of late and that has led to four consecutive games going 'under' the total. That leads to a couple solid angles for this game. First off, play against road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points after four or more consecutive 'unders'. This situation is 55-25 ATS (68.8 percent) over the last five seasons. Second, as far as the Lakers go, they are 2-14 ATS in their last 16 games coming off four or more consecutive 'unders'. Also, they are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games following a double-digit win. 10* (558) Atlanta Hawks

Memphis is coming off a big upset win at Dallas last night and while that normally could spell letdown, I do not think it is the case with this team as the Grizzlies have been in this position before and succeeded. They won on a last second shot after trailing by as many as 18 points and while those are normal angles to fade, a loss tonight would make that Sunday win pretty meaningless. Memphis is currently in the eighth and final playoff spot as it is just a game and a half ahead of Phoenix and Utah so every game counts. Negating the Memphis letdown is a possible Oklahoma City letdown as well as the Thunder are also coming off a win last night, at home against Phoenix in overtime. That was their third straight victory following three consecutive losses so the streak has turned around but things have been difficult on the road recently. After winning four straight games away from home, the Thunder have dropped three of their last four and while they are coming off a win over Atlanta in the last, that was a letdown for the Hawks. The Grizzlies did lose their last game played at home, which was on Friday against New Orleans but they had won five straight and nine of 10 prior to that with the lone loss coming against the Lakers and wins against Orlando and San Antonio. Going back even further shows that Memphis has gained a significant home court advantage as it started the season with a 2-4 record at FedEx Forum but has since gone 19-5. Memphis is now ranked 11th in the NBA in power ranking, just three spots behind the Thunder. Both teams are playing the second game of a back-to-back set and that favors the home team. Memphis is 14-3-1 ATS when playing on no rest including a 4-0-1 record when the second game is at home. Oklahoma City 7-4 ATS when playing with no rest but it is 1-3 straight up and 2-2 against the number when going from home to the road. The Grizzlies are 10-2 ATS this season following an outright win as underdogs while going 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games against teams with a winning percentage greater than .600. 10* (512) Memphis Grizzlies

This is a great number for a

The Clippers won for us on Wednesday and we will go with them again tonight. They defeated the Rockets while sneaking out the cover and situation is extremely similar tonight. Houston was on a roll with a five-game winning streak before losing and tonight, Denver comes in with a three-game winning streak as well as a 6-1 record over its last seven games. The Nuggets have played six games since Anthony and Billups left and they have gone 5-1. Four wins have come at home while going 1-1 on the road. It was a big win for the clippers on Wednesday as they needed it badly. Heading into that game against the Rockets, they had lost five straight and eight of their last nine games. Going back even further, Los Angeles was 2-12 over its last 14 games and of those, 12 were on the road as they were involved in a huge road swing. The two home games resulted in losses however they came against the Celtics and Bulls, two of the top teams in the Eastern Conference so there is some legitimacy to that bad run. This is the fourth meeting of the season between these two teams as the home team has won each of the first three games but note that the Clippers have covered all three of those. This is a solid price for Los Angeles and even though it has not fared well as a short chalk, the Nuggets offset that with issues as a short underdog. Despite the huge variance in records overall, the Clippers home record is five games better than the Nuggets road record and that should equate to a bigger line, which is line value on our side. We lost a tough one with the Nuggets Thursday as Utah missed layup in the final second on the game prevented overtime. The home team has actually won eight straight meetings in this series and with the line for tonight, a win by the home team is a probable cover. Denver is just 12-23 ATS in its last 35 road games following a road game while the Clippers are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games as well as 5-0 ATS in their last five games as a home favorite of fewer than five points. 10* (512) Los Angeles Clippers

This is a tough spot for Miami. The Heat are coming off a game Thursday night against Eastern Conference rival Orlando and now they must play the next night on the road against the best team in the NBA. To Miami

These teams met in Golden St. just less than two weeks ago and while that game did go

Denver has arguably been playing a lot better since the massive trade that took place recently and even though everyone said that the Carmelo Anthony situation was not a distraction is not speaking the truth. It was a huge distraction for him, the coaching staff and the other players. Now that everything has settled down, the Nuggets are playing some great team basketball but that being said, the situation tonight calls for a look at the opposite side as Denver is ripe for a loss. The Nuggets have played five games since Anthony and Billups left and they have gone 4-1 in those games. All four wins have come at home while the only loss happened to be the only road game played at Portland. That ended up being a close overtime loss but I expect a much more significant defeat this time around. Denver is coming off two straight double-digit wins including a 40-point victory last night over Charlotte. If there is aver a time to play the bounce angle, it is after a win like that. Utah has not been playing very well and coupled with the Denver success, it is steering people toward the Nuggets and thus increasing our line value on the Jazz. Utah has dropped two straight and seven of its last nine games and the once intimidating home floor advantage is no more. The Jazz have dropped six straight games at home to drop to 17-14 on the season at EnergySolutions Arena. Three of those came against title contenders and while excuses aren

Exactly one month ago, these teams met in Orlando and we had an

I played and won against Phoenix on Monday as it ended up winning straight up against the Nets but failed to cover the number. The Suns have won all three games to begin this roadtrip but obviously the test becomes a little stiffer here. The situation is not in their favor as the last two games easily could have been lost but Phoenix won both of those games on last second shots in overtime and something says the basketball gods are not going to hang around Phoenix very long. Boston went 3-1 on its roadtrip and it is now home for a short two-game homestand before heading to Milwaukee over the weekend. The Celtics have been solid at home this season by going 25-5 with four of those five losses coming against elite teams. A surprising loss against Houston was the shocking one but sense then, Boston is 7-0 against teams it should be beating and Phoenix fits that list. The Celtics are also 25-5 overall against teams ranked in the bottom half of the NBA. This is a very big revenge game for Boston as the Celtics lost in Phoenix back in late January in a game that was never close. The Celtics fell behind by a lot early and could not recover. That was the second game of a back-to-back on the road and Boston has been horrible in that situation, going 2-7 this season with no rest with the second game being on the road. Overall, the Celtics are 6-7 straight up playing with no rest and 37-8 in all of the other games. The old guys need some time to gets refreshes is all. Making this even more of a revenge game is the fact that Boston has lost three straight against the Suns and Phoenix is the only team Boston has not defeated in the last two years which really says something about the Celtics but also how the Suns have had their number. Trust me, these players remember. The Celtics are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game and 4-1 ATS in their last five games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. 10* (712) Boston Celtics

Dallas comes into this game on a huge run as it has won six straight games including all three since the All-Star break and going back even further, the Mavericks are 16-1 in their last 17 games with the only defeat coming by just one point at Denver. I played against Dallas on Saturday as it won but failed to cover against Washington but it then came back and rolled against Toronto on Sunday. This one is the biggest test on this east coast swing and the recent run is giving us excellent line value on the home team. While the Mavericks have been hot, so have the Sixers. They have also won their first three games since the All-Star break and have won four straight overall and going back to January they are 13-4 over their last 17 games. It is not quite the same record as Dallas but it is pretty close and that put Philadelphia in a good spot with this number at home. The Sixers are 19-9 at home this season but they have been better after a slow 1-5 start in their first six games as they have gone 18-4 last in their last 22 home games. Dallas took the first meeting of this season series by nine points at home way back in November which was right in the middle of the Sixers rough start where they opened 3-13 in their first 16 games. They have since gone 27-16 and are looking more like a team that is ready to cause some headaches for the top teams in the conference. Philadelphia continues to reward its backers as it is 37-21-1 ATS on the season and that is the highest ATS win percentage in the league yet it still is flying under the radar. As mentioned this is a revenge game for the Sixers and they have been outstanding in payback mode this season, going 15-3 ATS in their 18 games revenging a road loss. They are also set up with other runs that play into this game as they are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games as home underdogs of fewer than five points and 8-1 ATS in their last nine games against tea with a winning percentage greater than .600. The mavericks are rolling but Philadelphia is right there and the advantage goes to the home team. 10* (506) Philadelphia 76ers

New Jersey returns home for the first time in two weeks following a three-game roadtrip that overlapped the All-Star break. The Nets went 0-3 on the trip, losing to the Celtics, Spurs and Rockets. Going back further the Nets have dropped five in a row with two home losses against the Knicks and Spurs so the recent schedule has been a tough one. New Jersey however catches a great situation tonight as it is the first game of a seven-game homestand and that can definitely get the batteries recharged. Phoenix meanwhile has won three straight games including the first two on this homestand over Toronto and Indiana. The latter came on Sunday in overtime over the Pacers on a last second three-pointer no not only are the Suns playing with no rest but they are playing in a severe letdown scenario. They are now a game under .500 on the road which is just a half-game better than the Nets home record so the fact that Phoenix is a favorite is based on name and overall record only. Phoenix is 0-4 straight up and 1-3 ATS when playing the second of back-to-back road games. The Suns won the first meeting in Phoenix but that came in overtime and they were able to cover the six-point number thanks to a big overtime period. They fought back from a 15-point deficit so that win and cover is definitely misleading in what really happened in that contest. Based on the change in venue, the number should shift about seven points based on the home court shift and that is where we get additional value. Despite some recent struggles, the Nets are playing well against the big boys as they are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games against teams with a winning record. They have also owned the Western Conference which may sound surprising but they are 9-1 ATS in their 10 home non-conference home games this season. New Jersey has also been a great team to rebound on its home floor as it is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 home games after having lost five or six of their last seven games this season. 10* (704) New Jersey Nets

Houston is 3-0 out of the gates following the All-Star break but I

Washington returns home after a gallant effort in Miami as it lost by just eight points. The Wizards are now 1-28 on the road so a loss certainly came as no surprise but they are a much more respectable 14-14 at home and the new roster should see more action tonight. Maurice Evans, Mike Bibby and Jordan Crawford played only 32 combined minutes in their first game since coming over from Atlanta. The Wizards are ATS in their last 10 home games against teams with a road winning percentage greater than .600. Dallas is once again playing exceptional basketball as it has won four straight games and 14 of its last 15 contests with a one-point loss in Denver being the only setback. The Mavericks rolled over Utah in their last game and that has been the only game played since before the All-Star break, a span of 10 days. That hurts momentum as teams want to keep playing when things are going good. Washington meanwhile has already played three games and I feel that is a big edge. These teams played less than a month ago and Dallas was favored by 9.5 points on its home floor. Now the Mavericks are favored by that same amount on the road and that is a massive overadjustment or we could say that it is an adjustment that has not been made due to the venue change. Both teams have been playing the opposite since then but we have to remember that laying close to double-digits at home and laying close to double-digits on the road are two completely different matters in this league. The loss of momentum for the Mavericks as mentioned is also part of a league-wide contrarian situation favoring the Wizards. Play against road teams that have covered six or seven of their last eight games against the spread and are playing only their 2nd game in seven days. This situation is 38-12 ATS (76 percent) over the last five seasons with the average point differential being +7.2 ppg actually favoring the home team. This is a very generous number which we can take advantage of tonight. 10* (506) Washington Wizards

This is a great setup for Orlando. The Magic are coming off a dreadful home loss against Sacramento on Wednesday as they were favored by 14.5 points but ended up losing by six points. Whether they were looking ahead to this game or not makes no difference but that loss puts Orlando in a much better position that had it rolled over the Kings like it should have done. The last two times this season that Orlando lost at home with a home game that followed, it rolled over the Spurs and Lakers by 22 and 14 points respectively. Oklahoma City is coming off a tough loss of its own but it was against the best team in the NBA in San Antonio so it was expected. The Thunder ended up covering that game after blowing an eight-point lead and then coming back from 11 points down to make a game of it. Oklahoma City has been a solid road team this season as it is 16-12 but eight of those 12 losses came as an underdog and even though this is a big game, the Thunder host the Lakers on Sunday and there is the possibility of a lookahead there. Oklahoma City

I am also playing on the

I played against Chicago Wednesday as it was its first game back from the All-Star break and it had this game to look forward to. The Bulls won the last meeting with Miami at home on 1/29 and while the Heat will be out for payback, it will not be easy here. Playing at home has been a completely different story as the Bulls are 25-4 on their home floor and they have lost only one home game in 2011 as they are 12-1 since the start of the year and going back further they are 15-1 in their last 16 games. Miami had a laugher on Tuesday in its first game back against a shorthanded Sacramento team. The Heat have certainly picked things up after a slow start to the season as they are 42-15 overall and they have won 11 of 12 games. However, taking a look at the schedule and you can see why as only two wins came against teams that will be in the playoffs, Orlando and Oklahoma City while the lone loss came against a similar team in Boston. Miami opened as the favorite despite a worse road record than Chicago

Remember when Phoenix used to have a home court advantage? The Suns have lost 13 gamers this season after losing only nine all of last season, so they have definitely lost a lot of that edge. They are just 12-17 against the number in their home games showing the role of favorite has not treated them very well. For the most part, the Suns have defeated the teams they should beat and lost to the teams they should lose to as they are 17- against the bottom half of the league but just 10-21 against the top half. I played against the Hawks last night as they were blasted by the Lakers by 24 points. That was more of a play on Los Angeles because of its recent struggles and the main concern last night was the Hawks 3-10 record against teams ranked in the top ten and while that record dropped to 3-11, they don

This is a pretty big game for the Lakers coming out of the All-Star break. They finished the first half on a seven-game roadtrip and it started out great with a 4-0 record but they dropped their last three games including an embarrassing loss against Cleveland, a team they defeated earlier in the season by 55 points. After that loss, every media outlet was all over them stating that the reigning champs are done. I have a feeling that Los Angeles players will have something to say about that. The Hawks are involved in an unusual trip as they played their final two games prior to the All-Star break on the road, went home, and now they are starting a five-game west coast trek. Atlanta was rolling along pretty good at the start of January with five straight wins but it has been a rough time since then as the Hawks are just 8-7 over their last 15 games including a 1-3 record over their last four games. They have played the easiest schedule in the NBA so the record should be better than it actually is. Atlanta has beaten up on the bad teams in the league, going 24-8 against the bottom half of the NBA but it is just 3-10 against teams ranked in the top 10. And with all of the negative talk, yes the Lakers are still in that group. Playing at home is definitely an edge and the importance of this game is even more considering the Lakers were 1-3 in their last four home games prior to the recent roadtrip. The six days off could not have come at a better time for a team that needs a recharge. The Lakers have been one of the most overvalued teams in the NBA this season as proven by their below average ATS mark but I feel there is actually value on them in this game based on the recent struggles and the public possibly jumping ship. As mentioned, the Hawks have struggled with the elite teams in the NBA and that carries over into their ATS record as they are 4-10 ATS into their last 14 games against teams with a winning record. The home team has won six straight in this series, covering five of those. 10* (516) Los Angeles Lakers

We played on Chicago on Tuesday and won as the Bulls defeated Charlotte by 12 points. They remain home to play their final game before the All-Star break and it comes against the best team in the NBA which will no doubt be a motivating factor. Chicago is a game over .500 on the road but playing at home has been a completely different story as the Bulls are 24-4 and they have lost only one home game in 2011 as they are 11-1 since the start of the year and going back further they are 14-1 in their last 15 games. This is the final road game for San Antonio and its annual rodeo trip and it has been a success thus far with a 6-2 record. While it has been a long one, it has been an easy one with the Lakers being the only challenge and this is arguably the biggest test of the bunch. Five of the Spurs last six games in this roadtrip have come against teams not even close to playoff spots while the one game against the Sixers, the only playoff contender, resulted in the lone loss. The Spurs are now 34-3 when scoring at least 100 points and 12-6 when they don

Portland is finishing strong right before the All-Star break as it comes into this final game riding a five-game winning streak. Granted the competition has been pretty dreadful with the exception of a home win over Chicago but wins are wins and they provide a lot of confidence and momentum moving forward. A win here would be big as the other end of the homestand after the break is going to be extremely tough for the Blazers. This is also a big double-revenge spot so motivation is not an issue. The Hornets have arguably been the streakiest team in the NBA this season as they started out 11-1 and then went 7-13 over its next 20 games followed by another upswing by going 13-2, including a 10-game winning streak, before going 2-7 in their last nine games heading into Golden St. on Tuesday. They have dropped eight of nine against the number and we did take them in the one game they did cover against Orlando but this is a team that is clearly struggling for any sort of positive outcomes. It would have been good to bet Brandon Roy and Marcus Camby back for this game as last week, this was the targeted game but both are likely out until after the break. On the plus side, it does provide a better line for us that those two will not be in the lineup and if for some reason one or both can play, it is a bonus. The Hornets won by 20 and 19 points in the first two meetings this season but both were in November when they were playing good. Portland still remembers despite those games being so long ago. The Hornets are 15-8 ATS against the Eastern Conference but just 12-19-1 against the Western Conference and that tells a lot right there. Portland has won 24 of 33 games when favored this season including 15 of 20 at home so this is a role it is accustomed to and succeeded in. The Blazers have covered five of their last seven against the Western Conference as well so beating those Eastern Conference bottom feeders is not going to provide any sort of letdown here, especially with payback on the line. 10* (724) Portland Trail Blazers

Chicago is back home following a pretty successful roadtrip where it went 3-2 to move to over .500 in its 25 road games this season. Playing at home has been a completely different story as the Bulls are 23-4 on their home floor and they have lost only one home game in 2011 as they are 10-1 since the start of the year and going back further they are 13-1 in their last 14 games and the lone loss happened to come against these same Bobcats, which is the second loss against Charlotte in two meetings this season. The Bobcats head into this game following a game on Monday against the Lakers and that is a game every team gets up for, especially on its home floor. That definitely spells a letdown situation here even though the Bulls are one of the top teams in the Eastern Conference. Charlotte has struggled this season when playing with no rest as it is 5-11 ATS in the second of a back-to-back set and this includes a 1-4 ATS record when going from home to on the road. Chicago was favored by 7.5 points in that most recent meeting less than a month ago and the line has risen past that this time around. It may seem high but this is right in the Bulls range as they are 6-1 ATS when laying between 8.0 and 9.5 points while the Bobcats are 1-3 ATS as underdogs of the same price range. The 27 Bulls home games have been decided by an average of just under 10 ppg and the 23 wins have come by an average of 13.3 ppg. Of those, 12 were by double-digits and only six were by fewer than nine points. Play on teams with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 that are revenging a straight up loss as a home favorite of seven points or more to teams with a winning percentage between .400 and .499. This situation is 48-21 ATS (69.6 percent) since 1996. Also, the Bulls are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games after playing three consecutive road games and the Bobcats are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 road games when playing against teams with a winning percentage between .600 and .700 in the second half of the season. 10* (508) Chicago Bulls

Milwaukee was horrible last night as it shot 36.4 percent from the floor in its loss against Memphis. Despite that horrible offensive effort, the Bucks were involved pretty much throughout the game and ended up losing by just three points. It is no consolation but at least Milwaukee gets to return home after playing five of its last seven games on the road while losing six of those. The Bucks have been decent this season when playing with no rest, going 9-5 ATS and they fin themselves in a solid spot. The Pacers are a changed team since Jim O

We are taking another shot at the Bucks

After defeating the Hawks by 34 points in Atlanta on Tuesday, the Sixers came back down to earth as they lost at home the following night to Orlando by four points. That was a very good example of the

The first meeting between Boston and Los Angeles saw a high scoring game and one that went well over the total. That game was only 11 days ago and yet, we are seeing a jump in the posted total from a closing of 185.5 in that first meeting to 187.5 in this second meeting. Prior to that game on January 30th, the Celtics and Lakers played five straight

The Bucks have been a solid

Detroit has gone

Charlotte has burned us in its last two games but we hop back on here in what is arguably the best situation of them all. The Bobcats have dropped the first two games of this homestand against Miami and Dallas, two teams playing exceptionally well right now. Charlotte has fallen to a game under .500 at home but it certainly is not because of bad play. In 2011, the Bobcats have played nine home games and seven of those have come against teams currently holding down playoff spots. Boston is coming off a big win yesterday over Orlando and this spot is very similar to when we played against the Celtics back on January 28th. Boston has been struggling in this situation all season long as it is just 6-6 straight up and 3-9 ATS in the second of a back-to-back set. Being one of the older teams in the NBA, it does not come as much of a surprise that the Celtics have struggled. Also, Boston is just 2-6 both straight up and against the number when playing with no rest and the second game coming on the road. Not only is Boston coming off a big win over a conference rival and playing with no rest, the upcoming schedule should have it peeking ahead as the Celtics host the Lakers and the Heat in their two upcoming games this week. That makes this game against Charlotte the ultimate sandwich spot. We are also getting some exceptional line value as Charlotte was getting eight points in Boston just over three weeks ago which means this line should be closer to a pickem than to its current 4.5 points. The Bobcats have had their problems during this recent stretch of home games against the top teams they have faced but Charlotte is 22-9 ATS in its last 31 games after having lost four of their last five games. Meanwhile, on top of the bad no rest record, Boston has covered back-to-back games only once since mid-December and it is just 3-12-1 ATS in its last 16 games following a win and going back further it is 14-36-1 ATS in its last 51 games following a double-digit win. 10* (702) Charlotte Bobcats

Indiana is 3-0 since head coach Jim O

You wouldn

Like Orlando, Miami is coming off a big game last night and one that it almost let get away. The Heat nearly blew a 23-point lead against Orlando in the fourth quarter but they managed to hold on and pull off the outright underdog win. That sets up a great situation in itself as explained later. Miami was a very motivated team last night as proven by LeBron James and his postgame comment.

This is the third meeting between the Heat and Magic with the first two games splitting the totals. What makes those different from tonight

Cleveland has lost 21 straight games including eight straight at home. That should tell you something right there. Not to defend the losing streak, but 13 of those games have been on the road including 10 of the last 13 games so it has been a rough slate. Speaking of rough, while the majority of the games have been on the road, the majority of the overall games have come against playoff contending teams as of those 21 games, 17 have come against squads either qualified for postseason or within three games. Indiana is coming off a home win against the Raptors in the first game under interim head coach Frank Vogel. The Pacers played with renewed energy under the new coach and that is generally the case when a coach is fired as the team tends to step up in such instances. However it usually does not last long as a team cannot be very good to begin with if their coach was let go and that is certainly the case for the Pacers. Indiana is nine games under .500 including 10 games under .500 on the road. The Pacers have not been road favorites since the last day of November and the reason is that they are 1-14 over their last 15 road games. They have to be put into the role of road favorite here only because they are playing a team that has not won since before Christmas but nonetheless, they do not deserve it. Cleveland will break out eventually and this is a good spot to do it in as its toughest schedule ranking in the NBA is causing some inflated numbers even it should not be seeing. The Cavaliers may be considered risky by some but the Pacers cannot be trusted as they have won just five games during the span of the Cleveland losing streak. The Pacers are just 1-7 ATS in their last eight games as road favorites dating back to last season and the Cavaliers fall into a very solid contrarian situation. Play on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points after eight or more consecutive losses and playing their 3rd game in four days. This situation is 61-30 ATS (67 percent) since 1996. 10* (704) Cleveland Cavaliers

We have been spot on with the Celtics the last two games and we will get involved with them again on Tuesday. Boston put up a dud in Phoenix on Friday as they were hammered by the Suns in what looked to be a lookahead game to the Lakers on Sunday. We sides with Boston against Los Angeles as it was a very emotional and focused team that went into Staples Center as it was the first time the Celtics had seen the Lakers since the loss in the NBA Finals a season ago. With that big win and this being the final game of this west coast roadtrip, I expect Boston to come out flat once again especially with its recent domination in this series. The Kings have gotten things together somewhat and are playing much better lately. They are coming off back-to-back wins against the Lakers and Hornets and while their 4-8 record over the last 12 games looks bad, the schedule has had a lot to do with that as nine of those 12 games were on the road. Since the end of December, Sacramento has played just seven home games and they are 4-3 in those games. Wins came against Memphis, Phoenix, Denver and the aforementioned Hornets so they have been against some stellar opposition. The losses came against Charlotte, Portland and Atlanta by five, four and six points respectively. This came after a 3-14 start at home so it is pretty obvious the Kings have been able to turn things around and at least become competitive on their home floor. The situations definitely favor Sacramento here as the Kings are 5-0 ATS in their last five games against teams with a winning record while the Celtics are 1-4 ATS in their last five games against teams with a losing record. Boston is 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 games after a win and 15-35-1 ATS in its last 51 games following a double-digit win. Also, the Celtics are only 1-7 ATS in their last eight games following a cover while Sacramento is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games as an underdog between 5.0 and 10.5 points. 10* (504) Sacramento Kings

Both teams had Sunday off and both are coming off low scoring games on Saturday. The Bucks defeated New Jersey by 10 points in easily the lowest scoring game of the night as just 172 points hit the board. The Clippers defeated the Bobcats by 15 points as they allowed only 88 points and that game stayed

Denver has started 3-0 on its current roadtrip which is pretty impressive considering it entered the trek with a 5-13 record in its first 18 games away from home. The road wins are big for a team fighting for positioning in the Western Conference but as big as they have been, they are pretty unimpressive. The Nuggets were favored in all three which should tell you something right there as they came against three of the five worst teams in the Eastern Conference. That is not exactly overpowering. The Sixers were rolling along with three straight wins until Friday and an absolute nightmare of a fourth quarter. They headed into the final period with a 16-point lead and were outscored by Memphis 42-21 and lost by five points. Philadelphia actually had a lead of 21 points at one point in the third quarter but the monumental collapse left it with questions to answer. The Sixers looked at the last quarter on film to use that as a motivator and I expect them to come out fully focused here. The problem in that final quarter against the Grizzlies was a lack of focus which led to turnovers, 11 of them in fact. The Sixers finished with 22 turnovers, only the second time they have committed more than 20 in a game. They are tied for third in the NBA with the fewest turnovers with 12.8 per game. This is a revenge game for Denver which lost at home to Philadelphia by six points the day after Christmas but as mentioned several time, road revenge is a very difficult thing to attain in the this league. The Nuggets are extremely banged up down low. While Chris Anderson returns, both Al Harrington and Kenyon Martin will not play and the time Nene will see is still a question as he battles a strained calf. Philadelphia is 9-1 ATS when playing against teams with a winning percentage between .600 and .700 while Denver is 3-12-2 ATS in its last 17 road games against teams with a home winning percentage greater than .400. The Sixers are also 16-4 ATS against strong offenses shooting 46 percent or better from the floor. 10* (808) Philadelphia 76ers

Neither Houston nor San Antonio played last night which should benefit the defense of both sides as extra rest means fresher legs. The Spurs are home following a three-game roadtrip and this is their final home game until after the All-Star break as their annual rodeo roadtrip is here. They are coming off two relatively high scoring games, at least for San Antonio standards, and both of these games went

Miami rattled off 21 wins in 22 games before dropping four straight games right after that. The Heat came back with a home win over Toronto in their last game which was all the back to Saturday. The last loss was the Tuesday prior so Miami has had a very long stretch with only two games played and a lot of needed rest thrown in there. That four-game skid seems like a long time ago and in fact it was so expect Miami to come into this game fresh and ready to start another big winning streak. The Knicks were rolling along with 18 wins in 24 games but they have since gone 2-7 over their last nine games with the last victory snapping a six-game losing streak. The win was important to stop the bleeding but it came against the Wizards who remain winless on the road so it was far from a great win. The Knicks are only two games over .500 at home and while they have been great covering as underdogs, they are just 1-4 ATS in their last five games as home underdogs of fewer than five points. The effort from New York against Washington was not good enough to prepare them for Miami. They allowed the Wizards to battle back from a 13-point deficit in the second quarter and stay neck-and-neck until midway through the fourth. Offensively, the Knicks were able to do some of the things that they were doing well during their positive run but the Wizards defense helped out in that. Miami has the NBA's second-best defense, as measured by field-goal percentage, allowing just 42.9 percent shooting from the floor. Miami falls into a great situation. Play on road favorites after having lost four or five of their last six games that have played five or less games in 14 days. This situation is 28-11 ATS (71.8 percent) since 1996. As mentioned earlier, the Knicks have not done well as home underdogs of late and Miami is 19-9 ATS in its last 28 games as a road favorite and it is 7-3-1 ATS in its last 11 road games against teams with a winning home record. Like the first meeting in New York this season, the Heat roll. 10* (501) Miami Heat

This game sets up pretty similar to the San Antonio game on Monday which won against Golden St. Oklahoma City is not coming off as embarrassing of a loss as the Spurs were but the Thunder lost in New Orleans on Monday after blowing a 15-point lead and that sets up a good spot for the road favorite. Oklahoma City is 12-10 on the road this season and sitting just a game behind Dallas for third place in the Western Conference, these are the games it needs to win. I would normally take a look at Minnesota in the home underdog role here but after a decent late December run, the Timberwolves have been playing very poorly. They have lost nine of their last 10 games with the only win coming against Washington at home, which are still winless on the road. Minnesota has defeated only two teams with a winning record this season, New York and New Orleans, and it is 1-16 overall against teams ranked in the top ten in the league. Overall, the Thunder have dropped three of their last four games and the problem has been poor shooting. They are shooting 43.8 percent from the floor including 22.9 percent from long range but they face one of the league

Washington found a way to lose again on the road as it once again faltered in the second half. The Wizards dropped to 0-21 on the road but as noted earlier on this team many times, they are a much different team at home. They are 13-9 at home and this includes a win last time out against the Celtics on Saturday. We won with Washington in that game and we are coming back with the Wizards again as they catch a great number. Against Boston, it was more revenge but against Denver, it is road woes on the other side. Denver is 20-5 at home, one of only four teams in the NBA to have 20 or more home wins on the season. The problem is that the Nuggets are 5-13 on the road and their 23-game differential in home/road wins and losses is second in the league behind, you guessed it, Washington. So we have the teams with the two biggest margins on the floor and yet the road team is favored. Making matters worse for the Nuggets is that this is just their second road game since January 6th, a span of nine games. This is the start of a five-game roadtrip for Denver and the best news is that all five games are against teams that have losing records and that is good because Denver is 16-6 against teams with losing records this season. The bad news is that five of those six losses came on the road. While this roadtrip is important for Denver, this game is important for Washington as following this, it plays its next four games on the road all against Western Conference teams virtually assured of the playoffs or well within reach. Denver is on a 5-16 ATS run the last two seasons as a road favorite of six or fewer points while going 2-11 ATS in its last 13 road games following a game where 225 or more total points were scored. Despite being one of the top teams recently, the Nuggets have struggled against poor teams, going 9-23 ATS in their last 32 games against teams getting outscored by three or more ppg. Washington meanwhile is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games against the NBA Southwest Division. 10* (502) Washington Wizards

I would normally be taking a hard look at the home underdog in this spot as I

With a short Sunday card, we are taking a look at the total tonight and I think there is a lot of value on the

I think the Knicks can hang around in this game and stop the recent bleeding that has been taking place. New York was on a 4-1 run as well as a 19-7 run going back to late November but it has dropped four straight games including the last two on the road. It has been a case of the defense playing bad when the offense is playing good and the offense playing bad when the defense is playing good. This is a team that has shown many times this season that it is able to bounce back against the best. The Spurs continue their torrid run through the NBA. San Antonio has won seven straight games following a small two-game skid, its only two-game losing streak of the entire season. One of those consecutive losses happened to come in New York so many will be on the Spurs here playing the revenge angle and while that is an angle that can be very successful, it is not here as explained later. The Spurs are an NBA best 23-2 at home but they are just 14-11 ATS which shows the value going the other way. Danilo Gallinari is back in the lineup for the Knicks following an absence of six games with New York going 3-3 in those games. They have dropped both since his return but they are once again readjusting the rotations which can cause early issues. New York has allowed 114.3 ppg during its losing streak, and Amare Stoudemire sounded fed up after the latest defeat. New York's only win in 10 games when allowing 100 points came against San Antonio. The Spurs will be highly motivated for some payback tonight after their horrible effort in New York earlier in the month but they are just 14-27 ATS in their last 41 games revenging a road loss. The Knicks are 16-5 ATS as underdogs this season and fall into a situation where you play on road teams that are averaging 103 or more ppg on the season, after a blowout loss by 15 points or more. This situation is 78-42 ATS (65 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (815) New York Knicks

We won with the Mavericks last night but we are going the other way tonight. While last night wasn

The Clippers have been playing much better this season of late as they have won nine of their last 13 games including a huge home upset last night against the Lakers. That said, I expect a huge letdown today from Los Angeles as it will be difficult to bring that same energy to the floor against the Pacers. The Clippers have had the luxury of a very soft schedule of late as this is their ninth home game in their last 12 games and both road games were in California to the travel has been minimal. Indiana begins a four-game west coast trip following a loss at home against the Bulls on Friday. It has been a very difficult stretch for the Pacers as they are 5-11 over their last 16 games including a 1-6 record on the road but they did win their most recent road game against Philadelphia and now they are fully healthy for the first time in a long while. Indiana is calling this a big game and a big trip as well.

This may start to sound old but we will be backing Charlotte again tonight. The Bobcats may have lost last night in Boston but they put forth an excellent effort and they were able to cover the big number to make it five straight spread wins. They head back to Charlotte tonight where they are 11-9 on the season and Charlotte has the better home/road split record in this matchup. The Bobcats opened as the underdog but quickly moved to the favorite despite the majority of action being on the road team. The coaching change that the Bobcats have gone has paid off thus far. After beginning 9-19 under Larry Brown, Charlotte has gone 6-3 under interim coach Paul Silas. The players, who were said to have quit under Brown, are playing with more energy as they are running once again and the up-tempo style so far has been a success. They have scored 96 or more points in six of those nine games and under Brown, they put up 96 or more points only eight times in 28 games. This is the third game in four nights for the Bobcats but it is also the same for New Orleans and the Hornets situation is much different. They are coming off an overtime win last night in Houston which came on the heels of an overtime win over Orlando on Wednesday. New Orleans is 6-2 over its last eight games so it is playing well but motivation will play a role as well as Charlotte will be looking for some payback following a 16-point loss in New Orleans back in December. The Bobcats record could be better as bad luck has been on their side as 10 of the 22 losses have been by five points or fewer. The Bobcats are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games against teams with a losing road record which ties into their 16-5 ATS record in their last 21 games as a home favorite of fewer than five points and this season they are 5-1 ATS as a favorite of fewer than four points. The roll continues Saturday as the Bobcats rebound from last night and get their revenge. 10* (506) Charlotte Bobcats

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This is a very good setup for the Pacers. Indiana has won two straight games following a stretch of going 1-6 prior to that. The Pacers have kept things really competitive however even during that bad stretch as they are 5-1 ATS in their last six games. At home this season, they are 10-9 but that record could be a lot better as losses against the Spurs, Thunder and Magic came by four points or fewer. Indiana remains in seventh place in the Eastern Conference with three teams only two games back. I played against the Bulls on Wednesday and won as Charlotte defeated them outright as three-point underdogs. This is the second game of a two-game roadtrip and while they are 17-3 at home which is the best home record in the Eastern Conference, they are two games under .500 on the road which is a typical scene in this league. Chicago has dropped four of its last five games on the road with the only win coming in overtime against Detroit by three points. The Bulls are 0-5 ATS in those four away games. Making this spot even more difficult is the fact that Chicago hosts Miami tomorrow night which puts it in a typical lookahead situation. This has not been a huge angle to play yet this season as Eastern Conference teams that are playing back-to-back games with the Heat being the second contest are 3-2 in those first games but the Pacers can add extra motivation to this one as they are out for revenge following a 19-point drubbing in Chicago last month. As mentioned, the Bulls are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games and they are also 2-5 ATS in their last seven games against teams with a losing record. The Pacers meanwhile are 11-5-2 ATS in their last 18 home games against teams with a losing road record and as the offense picks up, so doesn

We won last night on the Clippers and we will once again go against the Heat tonight. Miami put up a dud in Los Angeles last night and while an argument will be made it was looking ahead to this game, it is highly doubtful that was the case with the numerous streaks on the line. Now that Miami has finally lost, it may be time for a streak to start going the other way. LeBron James is a question mark tonight with an ankle injury and if he goes, he is not close to 100 percent. The Heat had won nine straight games and are now 21-2 over their last 23 games while covering 15 of those games. Most of those spread wins came early on in the streak when Miami was coming off a bad stretch and the lines were not inflated. Since that run started, the numbers have been adjusted and Miami is a more pedestrian 7-7 ATS over its last 14 games. Not to say Miami