Sports Picks & Predictions

ASA play on: UNDER 226 Denver Nuggets @ Golden State Warriors, 10:10 PM ET - We really liked this Under bet when the opening number came out at 229.5 but has since been bet down to the current number. We still feel there is enough value and won’t be scared off by the move. The last time these two Western foes met was back in January, but they combined for just 218 total points. In that game the Warriors had Wiseman, Oubre Jr. and Paschall who combined for 40-points in that game and all three of those GST players are out tonight. Denver had Murray for that previous game, who is out tonight also, and he scored 17-points for the Nuggets. Denver struggled offensively yesterday scoring just 87-points in a loss to the Celtics. They’ll focus on their half-court offense here with a key advantage in the middle with Jokic against anyone the Warriors can throw at him. The Nuggets are playing their 4th game in just 7 days so fatigue will be a factor here. The Nuggets are one of the slowest paced teams in the NBA and will walk it up every chance they get. The Warriors are obviously explosive offensively with Steph Curry but the offense has had it’s ups-and-downs this season. In their last ten games alone, the Warriors have scored 111 or less in six games. Golden State has the 21st offensive efficiency rating in the NBA this season but are 9th defensively. Warriors 7-2 Under their last nine at home against a team with a winning record, Nuggets 5-0 Under run on the road versus teams with a winning home record. The bet here is UNDER!

ASA top play on 10* Memphis Grizzlies -3 over Indiana Pacers, 8:10 PM ET - The Pacers may have won two straight games but those wins came against two of the worst teams in the NBA in Orlando and Minnesota. The Pacers are 3-4 SU their last seven games and 7-7 their last fourteen on the road. Memphis is off a loss in New York but have won 4 of their last five games and are playing well. Memphis has the best offensive efficiency rating in the NBA over their last five games at 1.235PPP and a defensive efficiency rating of 1.124PPP which is 15th. In comparison the Pacers are in in the bottom ten in both OEFF and DEFF their last five games. Memphis is 14-10 ATS off a loss this season, 9-5 ATS at home in that situation. The Pacers are 8-15 ATS off a win this season, 2-8 ATS their last ten. Indiana embarrassed Memphis earlier this season at home 134-116 so expect payback here for the Grizzlies.

ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns -11.5 vs Washington Wizards, 10:10 PM ET - As you know we love to play on elite teams when they are off a loss which is the case for Phoenix here. The Suns lost a tough one to the Clippers last time out and will be focused here for the Wizards who are coming off a game Friday night versus the Warriors. Washington is just 8-16 SU on the road this year with the 5th worst average differential of minus -6.9PPG. Phoenix is 19-8 SU at home with the 2nd best average point differential of +8.6PPG. The Suns hold a decisive advantage on both ends of the court with the 4th best offensive AND defensive efficiency in the league. In comparison the Wiz are 25th in NBA in road offensive efficiency and 19th in road defensive efficiency. Washington is 1-7 SU on the road their last eight and the lone win came against the worst team in the league the Orlando Magic. Phoenix is 28-7 SU their last 35 games and are 12-3 ATS when coming off a loss. Earlier this season the Suns lost in Washington by 21-points so expect payback here.

ASA top play on 10* Washington Wizards +4.5 over Golden State Warriors, 10:10 PM ET - We like the early money/bets movement on this game and how the line fluctuated based on early action. It’s a solid indicator the play here is on the visiting Washington Wizards. Golden State is coming off a very big home win over the Milwaukee Bucks who were without Giannis for the game. Prior to that win though the Warriors had lost three in a row and 7 of their last eight so it’s not like they are currently playing well. Washington is coming off a much-needed win over the Magic and a big part of that success was the return of Beal and Hachimura which now give the Wiz their complete starting lineup. Beal is leading the league in scoring at over 31PPG and had a nice return game with 26-points on 11 of 19 shooting. Washington has been getting great play out of Russell Westbrook who is averaging a triple-double AGAIN this season but nobody is talking about it. We will play against a favorite (Warriors) who have an average negative differential of -10.2PPG their last five games. Beal and Russell keep this game close. Grab the points.

ASA top play on 10* LA Clippers -6 over Phoenix Suns, 10:10 PM ET - The Suns are in a tough scheduling situation here playing the second night of a back-to-back and third game in four nights. Not only that but they are off a draining affair last night, an OT win over Utah. The “Big 3” of the Suns, Ayton, Paul and Booker all played 40+ minutes last night so fatigue will be an issue. The Clippers on the other hand are rested and will be focused to beat a team that is above them in the standings. The Suns are playing great, but the Clippers are finding their groove with wins in 8 of their last ten games. L.A. is 8-2 SU their last ten home games and all eight of those wins have come by more than tonight’s spread. In fact, the Clippers last eight home wins have come by an average of 19PPG. The Suns have an outstanding straight-up and spread record when playing without rest, but this situation is different as last night’s game was a huge home win over the West leading Jazz. The Clippers are getting healthy with the return of Beverly and starting to look like the contender in the West they were projected to be before the start of the season. Bet the Clippers here.

ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns +2 over Utah Jazz, 10:10 PM ET - This is obviously the biggest game on the schedule with the top two teams in the West squaring off. Both teams are red hot with the Suns coming into this game with wins in 18 of their last twenty-two games, while the Jazz have won 9 of their last ten. Phoenix has been a home dog just three times this year, once was very early in the season before we know just how good they were going to be. Phoenix is 18-8 SU at home this season with the second-best average margin of victory of +8.8PPG. They are 2nd in offensive efficiency at home and 6th defensively. Utah has been even more dominating at home but not as much on the road where they are 16-10 SU on the season with the 6th best average point differential of +4.1PPG. In fact, the Jazz are slightly better than league average in road defensive efficiency ratings at 14th. Utah is just 1-6 ATS their last seven road games against a team with a winning home record. The Suns have won 6 straight home games and are 9-2 ATS their last eleven as a dog. Phoenix in a close win.

ASA top play on 10* LA Clippers -5.5 over Portland Trailblazers, 10:10 PM ET - This is a great spot to fade Portland for a couple different reasons. The Blazers are off a 133-85 blowout of the Thunder and will come into this game with a false sense of security. OKC is 20-30 SU on the season and easily one of the worst teams in the NBA. In fact, the Blazers are 4-1 SU their last five games, but all four wins have come against teams with a combined 86-122 record. Their loss in that five-game stretch came by 18 to Milwaukee who is on the same level as this Clippers team. The other part of this equation is Jusif Nurkic, the Blazers center, who played in the last five games but is out with another injury here. When betting the Clippers, you need to know who’s playing and who isn’t but tonight they will have both Kawhi Leonard and Paul George in the lineup which is key. Los Angeles is 18-8 SU at home on the season with the 4th best home point differential in the league at +7.4PPG. Portland has a winning record of 16-10 SU on the year against the West, but their margin of victory is a negative -0.2PPG. In comparison the Clippers are 19-10 against the West with a plus +4.5PPG average MOV. The Clippers are 20-13 as a favorite of 5 or more points this season. Bet the Clippers.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 214 Orlando Magic @ Denver Nuggets, 10:10 PM ET - The last place the Magic need to play right now is in the higher altitude against the red-hot Denver Nuggets. The Magic currently have 8 healthy players and it showed how tough it is to play an NBA game with a limited roster in a blowout loss to the Jazz. The Magic scored just 91-points in that game and have scored 103 or less in regulation in four straight games. Orlando has failed to reach 100 points in 5 of their last ten games and in their last five games they have the 4th worst offensive efficiency numbers in the NBA. Orlando gutted their roster before the trade deadline which included trading Aaron Gordon to this Nuggets team. Denver is coming off a big win over the Clippers and will look past this Orlando team that is really struggling. The Nuggets are the second slowest paced team in the NBA and prefer a half-court type game where Jokic is more effective. Denver doesn’t have great defensive efficiency numbers, but they are 9th in points allowed per game at 110PPG. Orlando’s offense is 29th in the NBA at just 104.2PPG and that’s when they had a much better roster. According to our math model this game should end with 209 total points. Bet Under

ASA top play on 10* Indiana Pacers -4 over Charlotte Hornets, 8:10 PM ET - We love the spot here to play the Pacers and fade the Hornets. Charlotte is coming off a big game last night against the Nets which makes this a second consecutive game in two days. Not only that but its also their 3rd game in four days. Charlotte is just 4-5 SU when playing without rest and 3-5 SU when playing in this situation of 3rd game in four nights. Charlotte is a respectable 11-13 SU on the road with a negative differential of minus -2.3PPG but this is a bad spot for them. Indiana is coming off a home loss to Miami on March 31st so they’ve had a full day to stew about it and will be ready to go here. The Pacers suffered through several key injuries early on but are now getting healthy with Caris Levert back in the mix. Levert is averaging 17PPG and gives the Pacers much needed scoring they’ve lacked. Indiana has covered 4 straight at home over the Hornets and we like them to get another cover here.

ASA top play on 10* Under 220 Golden State Warriors @ Miami Heat, 8:10 PM ET - Yes, the Warriors have Steph back in the lineup but we still like Under in this one. Sure, the Warriors are one of the fastest paced teams in the league but their offensive efficiency ratings is 22nd at 1.096 points per possession. They still play defense though with the 8th best defensive efficiency rating allowing only 1.105PPP. Miami is always good defensively with the 6th best overall defensive efficiency and in their last five games they are the second slowest paced team in the league at just 94.1 possessions per game. The Heat have really struggled offensively this season with the 24th worst offensive efficiency rating and in their last three games they haven’t topped 105 points. Golden State has been a solid proposition as an Under on the road with a 9-2 record their last 11 away from home. Miami has also stayed Under in 5 of their last seven at home against a team with a sub .500 road record. The call here is Under!

ASA top play on Boston Celtics +1 over Dallas Mavericks 7:40PM ET The Celtics are off a disappointing home loss to the Pelicans and an uncharacteristic bad shooting night of 43% overall and 33% from beyond the arc. Boston is the 13th best overall shooting team in the league and 8th best 3-point shooting team so expect a return to normal tonight. Boston is 7-2 SU at home off a loss this year and considering the line on this game, all they have to do is essentially win and we get a cover. Dallas is coming off a win over the Thunder, but everyone is beating OKC these days so we’re not overly impressed. The Mavericks have played well on the road this year with a 13-11 SU record but only 6 of those wins have come against a team with a current winning record. Earlier this season the C’s were -2.5-points in Dallas and lost outright so the correction in the line for this game is not what it should be. Take Boston at home in a bounce back situation playing with revenge.

ASA top play on 10* Charlotte Hornets -3.5 over Washington Wizards, 7:10 PM ET - This is a great spot to play on the Hornets and fade the Wizards. Charlotte is rested and off a loss, while the Wiz are coming off a big emotional win last night against the Indiana Pacers. Westbrook expended a ton of energy with a monster 35-point, 21 assists and 14 rebound night. The Wiz shot ridiculously well at 56% (season average is 46.8% or around league average) and will have a tough time duplicating that here. Charlotte is 3-1 SU their last four games and they even played well in a 4-point overtime loss to the Phoenix Suns. The Hornets are just 2-3 SU their last five road games but the three losses came to the Nuggets, Lakers (w/James) and Clippers. Washington is just 10-14 SU at home with a negative differential of -2.4PPG which is 22nd in the league. The line on this game is an indicator that Beal will not be in the lineup again for the Hornets so the play here is on Charlotte.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 239 Minnesota Timberwolves @ Brooklyn Nets, 7:30 PM ET - These are two of the faster paced teams in the NBA which translates to a lot of possessions and more scoring opportunities. Minnesota is 4th in pace, Brooklyn is 13th. The Nets are the #1 offensive efficiency team in the NBA at 1.184-points per possession and they should put up 130 or more here against the Wolves defense that is 27th in the league in defensive efficiency allowing 1.147-PPP. Speaking of defense, or lack of, the Nets aren’t much better than the Wolves in DEFF ranking 25th. The number on this game is an indicator Kyrie Irving will be back in the lineup with Harden which means Brooklyn is going to score at will here. If the Wolves get to 113 here, like we feel they will, this game goes Over.

ASA top play on 10* Atlanta Hawks +4.5 over Denver Nuggets, 9:10 PM ET - The trade deadline came and went and both teams were involved in some deals as the Hawks were rumored to be set to trade John Collins but instead made a minor move with Rondo. Denver made a big splash by landing McGee from Cleveland and Aaron Gordon from Orlando. We actually feel the Nuggets might have just made the moves needed to win the West. The Nuggets will go through a minor adjustment period injecting Aaron Gordon into the lineup and playing him starter minutes. Atlanta has quietly played well by winning 9 of the last eleven games and the two losses were close at the Clippers and at the Kings (who are playing well right now). Denver has also played well of late but are coming off a three-game road trip and have a much bigger game on deck with Philadelphia. The Nuggets are just 1-5 SU coming off a win and the Hawks have covered 9 of the last eleven meetings with Denver. Denver also just 2-6 ATS their last eight home games as a favorite.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 228.5 Memphis Grizzlies @ Utah Jazz, 9:10 PM ET - This is a quick turnaround game as these teams just played last night and totaled 231 Total points. The Jazz built a big lead, but the Grizzlies hung in there and almost pulled off the road win. The two teams combined for 195 total field goal attempts which is 15 more combined attempts than these two averages for the season. One anomaly from last night’s game is the Grizzlies 3-point shooting of 40% which is higher than normal considering they are the 23rd worst team in the NBA in 3PT%. Both teams have been lights out defensively of late with the 8th and 9th best defensive efficiency numbers in the NBA over their last five games. When these teams have played without rest this season the Grizzlies have averaged 226.9PPG, Utah has averaged 223.3PPG. The Jazz are 5-2 to the Under this season when playing without rest, Memphis has stayed Under in 3 straight in this scheduling situation. The Bet here is UNDER

ASA top play on 10* Denver Nuggets -1.5 over New Orleans Pelicans, 8:10 PM ET These two teams met a few games ago with the Pelicans winning 113-108 in Denver and payback is on hand tonight. As of this posting we don’t know if the Nuggets will have their new additions of Aaron Gordon or Javale McGee, but we are factoring in they don’t play, if they do, that’s a bonus. Denver is coming off a horrible loss to Toronto, giving up 135 points to the Raptors in a blowout. The Nuggets are 7-3 SU their last ten games overall, 6-1 SU their last seven on the road with an impressive win over the Bucks. Denver is 12-5 SU off a loss this season and the number is obviously low enough here to get a road win and cover. New Orleans has won two straight and are coming off a big win over the Lakers, but they are just 5-5 SU their last ten. The Pelicans are the 28th ranked defensive efficiency team in the NBA and will have a hard time containing the Nuggets 4th ranked offensive efficiency team here. Denver has the 6th best road differential in the NBA at +4.4PPG which is good enough for a cover here. Bet the visitor.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 225.5 Washington Wizards vs NY Knicks, 7:40 PM ET - These two teams just met the other night and they combined for 244 total points in the Knicks 131-113 win. New York shot exceptionally well in that game hitting over 50% from the field and beyond the arc but is that a huge surprise given the Wizards defense? Washington is 30th in points allowed per game, 25th in field goal percentage defense and 27th in defending the 3-point line. The Knicks have struggled at times this season offensively, but they are the 10th best 3-point shooting team in the NBA at 37.7%. We know New York plays slow and don’t have great offensive numbers but the Wizards are the fastest paced team in the league at 104.2 possessions per game and rank 7th in scoring at 114.9PPG. The Knicks are on a 4-1 Over streak as a favorite, 7-1 Over their last eight following a win of 10+ points. The Wiz are on a 4-1 Over run as an Underdog and 4-1 Over off a loss. This total is only a few points higher than league average so its not like we are asking them to score a ridiculous number of points. Just be slightly better than average and we get a win.

ASA top play on 10* Atlanta Hawks -2.5 over Sacramento Kings, 10 PM ET - The “tell” on this game is the number as Vegas is trying to bait you into betting the Kings as a home dog. We won’t fall into that trap and will take the red hot Hawks here. Atlanta is coming off a disappointing loss to the Clippers where they led by 22-points in the 3rd quarter but ended up losing by 9-points. Prior to that game the Hawks had won 8 straight games, four of which were on the road. Sacramento is playing better of late with wins in 3 of their last four games but they haven’t been consistent, especially at home where they are 9-12 SU with the 27th worst average loss margin in the NBA of minus -4.9PPG. Sacramento has the worst defensive efficiency rating in the NBA overall and at home where they allow 121PPG. Atlanta is 11-12 SU on the road this season but do have a positive road differential which ranks 13th best in the league. Yes, this is a quick turnaround game and the Hawks just beat the Kings but Atlanta has been in California for a few days and the Kings are coming off a 6-game East coast road trip. Atlanta is a perfect 4-0 ATS when favored on the road this year. Lay it.

ASA top play on 10* Under 217 Denver Nuggets @ Orlando Magic, 7 PM ET - The Nuggets are the 2nd slowest paced team in the NBA while the Magic are the 19th slowest. That means this is going to be a slower tempo game with less possessions than an average NBA contest. The Nuggets are one of the higher scoring teams in the NBA because of fantastic offensive efficiency numbers, but Orlando is not with the 27th worst OEFF ratings in the league. The Magic are 29th in scoring, 30th in field goal percentage shooting and 20th in 3-point shooting. Orlando has scored less than 98 points in 4 of their last five games but have also allowed less than 113 in six straight. The betting indicators also support our Under wager here. Bet UNDER

ASA top play on 10* LA Clippers -6 over Atlanta Hawks, Monday 10 PM ET - The Atlanta Hawks are rolling right now and are coming off a HUGE win over the Lakers. Because of their current 8-game winning streak this line is a few points lower than it should be. But lets also consider who the Hawks have beaten in this streak. They beat the Lakers after LeBron was injured just 10-minutes in. They have wins over OKC, Houston, Cleveland, Sacramento, Toronto, Orlando and Miami. Other than Miami, none of those teams have a winning record and four of those teams are in the bottom 6 of the entire NBA. The Clippers are 14-6 SU at home with the 5th best point differential of +7.3PPG which gets a cover here. L.A. has the 2nd best offensive efficiency numbers at home and average 117PPG on their home court. Atlanta is 19th in road defensive efficiency rankings and will have a hard time stopping the Clippers in this one. LA is rested and ready…LAY IT!

ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns -4 over LA Lakers, 10:15 PM ET - Several Sports Books have come out with a line on this game of Phoenix minus 4-points but we don’t expect that to be the number at tipoff. The Lakers are without LeBron James and Anthony Davis which makes them a below average team in the West. The Suns on the other hand are one of the best in the West and would have been favored by 4-points here had LeBron been playing. With that said we will lay up to 9-points with the Suns if this line moves. Phoenix is 14-8 SU at home with the 3rd best average point differential of plus +7.5PPG on the season. The Lakers are just 4-5 SU their last nine road games and only two of those wins came against a team with an above .500 record. The Lakers are just 3-3 SU when playing without rest this season and this factor becomes magnified now without LeBron in the lineup. The Suns take care of business against the leagues best teams as they hold a 11-1 ATS record their last twelve games against teams with an above .600 winning percentage.

ASA top play on 10* Philadelphia 76ers -6.5 over Sacramento Kings, 8 PM ET - We rarely pass up an opportunity to play on an elite NBA team off an embarrassing loss which is the case for the 76ers in this situation. Philly was just beaten by the Bucks at home and will be eager to atone here. The Sixers are 18-4 SU at home with the 4th best margin of victory of +7.2PPG. They hold the 3rd best defensive efficiency rating at home and the 12th best offensive efficiency. While the 76ers are in a great situation (at home, rested and off a home loss) the Kings are in a bad situation. Sacramento is off a HUGE upset win over the Celtics as a 7-point dog, playing the second night of a back-to-back, playing their 3rd in four nights and 5th game in eight days. The Kings have the 24th worst road differential in the NBA at minus -5.4PPG, rank 27th in road defensive efficiency and 16th in offensive efficiency. The Kings are 2-6 SU, 4-4 ATS when playing without rest with a negative differential of minus -8.2PPG. Philly 7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS at home when coming off a loss. Easy call for a BIG win by Philadelphia.

ASA top play on 10* Indiana Pacers +4 over Miami Heat, 8 PM ET - This line opened higher than it currently sits, then received a volume of money on the Heat and yet the line moved down. That’s a great first indicator the Pacers are the play here. Looking at each teams last ten games we find completely opposite results. Miami is 8-2 SU their last ten games while the Pacers are 2-8 SU. But on closer inspection we see the Heat have just two wins in that stretch over teams with winning records and one of them came against 21-20 Atlanta. Indiana has played a brutally tough schedule recently with games against the Nets, Nuggets twice, Suns, Lakers, 76ers, Knicks and Celtics. In comparison the Pacers were getting similar points at Denver, at the Lakers and at Philly. Despite a 12-8 SU home record the Heat have an average margin of victory of just 0.6PPG which is 16th worst in the NBA. Pacers have a negative road differential of -0.2PPG which is well within this point spread. Grab the points.

ASA top play on 10* Charlotte Hornets +8 over LA Lakers, 10:40 PM ET - Typically, a solid situation is betting against teams off games in the higher altitude of Denver if they are playing without rest such as the Hornets tonight. But we are going contrarian for a couple key reasons. First off, the Hornets were down big early and barely played the starters in the second half so fatigue won’t be an issue. Secondly, the line value is obvious as the Hornets were just plus +6.5-points at Denver who is rated higher than the Lakers, who are laying 8-points here. The Lakers are average or below in most offensive categories including efficiency which they rank 15th in. Los Angeles is 18th in scoring and 22nd in 3-point percentage shooting. L.A. has the 4th most wins in the NBA (easy first half schedule) but their average point differential is just +6PPG. Charlotte is above .500 this season and getting great play from their young talent including LaMelo Ball. The Hornets have won 4 of their last five games and 6 of their last nine. Charlotte is 8-11 SU on the road with an average point differential of minus -2.9PPG. The Hornets have been great off a loss recently with a 6-0 ATS run. Any time you play the Lakers it’s a big game so expect Charlotte to be dialed in tonight. Lakers 1-4 ATS their last five off a win of 10+ points.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 222.5 San Antonio Spurs @ Chicago Bulls, 8PM ET - We are betting value here and will side with Vegas on this Over. This line opened 227.5 which is a ton of value compared to the current number. We are betting the oddsmakers had the correct number to begin with. The correction in the number is based on the Spurs current stretch of games that has resulted in 4 of five Unders but let’s consider who they’ve played in that stretch. The Spurs recently played Detroit, Orlando and OKC who are bottom seven of the NBA in scoring and offensive efficiency. They had a game against Dallas who is middle of the pack in scoring and Philadelphia who is 7th in points allowed per game defensively. Now the Spurs face a Bulls team that is the 6th fastest paced team in the NBA and 11th in scoring at 114.4PPG. Chicago is coming off a game last night and they have averaged 225.5PPG this year when playing without rest. The Bulls just scored 118 and 123 in their last two games after a pair of lower scoring games so the offense is back on track. San Antonio is average or slightly below in most offensive categories, but the Bulls defense isn’t great, allowing 114.3PPG (24th) and 47.4% shooting (23rd). Let’s not forget, an average NBA game this season finishes with 224-points and this number is below that. Bet OVER

ASA top play on 10* Portland Trailblazers -120 over New Orleans Pelicans, 10 PM ET - The Blazers get some much-needed help back in their lineup with the return of CJ McCollum. McCollum was having a career year before his injury averaging 26.7PPG on 44.1% shooting from beyond the arc and over 47% from the field. He provides an additional scoring option the Blazers so desperately need to go along with Damian Lillard who scored 43 against the Pelicans the last time these teams met. Both teams have been bad defensively ranking 28th and 29th in defensive efficiency but both rank in the top 6 when it comes to offensive efficiency. The scheduling dynamics favor the Blazers who are off a disappointing loss at Minnesota while the Pelicans are off a 135-scoring output and win against the Clippers. Portland is a solid 10-6 off a loss this year, 6-2 at home in that situation. New Orleans is just 5-12 SU on the road this year with the 22nd worst road differential in the league at minus -3.3PPG. The NBA is driven by 3-point shooting and this is where the Blazers have a key advantage as they shoot 38% from beyond the arc which is 8th best in the NBA and the Pelicans allow 39% 3-point shooting which is 28th worse in the league. Pelicans just 1-6 ATS when coming off a game in which they score 125 or more points, while Portland is 8-3 ATS their last eleven at home against a sub .400 road team.

ASA top play on 10* Charlotte Hornets -3 over Sacramento Kings, 7 PM ET - The Hornets are quietly playing well right now with three straight wins to climb over the .500 record for the season. Charlotte recently beat Minnesota, Detroit and Toronto who are all very comparable to this Kings team. The Hornets have been very solid at home with a 6-1 SU record their last seven home games AND they won those games by an average of 11PPG. Sacramento has not been a good road team this year with a 6-11 SU record and one of the worst road differentials in the NBA at minus -5.7PPG. The Kings are 1-6 SU their last seven road games, and that one win came against the Pistons who are one of the worst teams in the NBA. Not only that, those six losses all came by more than the tonight’s spread. Sacramento is 1-7 ATS their last eight as a dog. Charlotte takes care of business when it comes to weaker teams with a 6-1 ATS run versus teams with a losing record. Easy call here with Charlotte by double-digits.

ASA top play on 10* New Orleans Pelicans +6 over LA Clippers, 8 PM ET - Obviously, the Clippers are one of the better road teams in the NBA at 12-8 SU with a point differential of +5.6PPG, but they’ve struggled of late with a 1-4 SU record their last five away from home. New Orleans is 2-3 SU their last five home games and one of those wins came against the Utah Jazz as a +7-point underdog. The Pelicans are 11-10 SU on their home floor this season and also have a positive plus/minus of +2.2PPG (12th best in the NBA). The Pelicans have cashed 7 of the last ten meetings in this series overall and 20 of the last twenty-seven in New Orleans. Based on our line analysis and the money moves on this game we are siding with the home team here plus the points.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 240 Sacramento Kings @ Atlanta Hawks, 7:30PM ET - The Kings are average in road offensive efficiency, ranking 15th BUT they are HORRIBLE defensively on the road, ranking 27th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.171PPP. The Hawks at home have the 12th best offensive efficiency numbers in the league but are 22nd in defensive efficiency. In other words, both are solid offensively and bad defensively. The Kings are 9th in pace while the Hawks are 22nd. Both teams are top 10 in offensive efficiency and both average over 112PPG. Defense is another matter as they both rank in the bottom 8 teams in the NBA in defensive efficiency, the Kings are last. The Kings have gone Over in 48 of their last 71 games overall, 38-18 Over their last 56 when a dog. The Hawks are on a 12-3 Over streak and have played Over in 35 of their last 50 at home against a team with a losing record. Vegas has set this number this high to scare you off. Don’t let it…BET OVER!

ASA top play on 10* Memphis Grizzlies +3.5 over Denver Nuggets, 8 PM ET - Both teams are trending up right now as the Nuggets have won four straight, while the Grizzlies have won 3 of their last four. We like the fact the Grizz have played a game after the All-Star break (beat Washington) while Denver has yet to play. Memphis has a pair of great games against two of the best teams in the NBA at home recently as they beat the Clippers bad (122-94) and lost by 1-point to Milwaukee. The Grizzlies have covered four in a row overall and have cashed 5 of the last six against the Nuggets in Memphis. The break couldn’t have come at a worse time for Denver who had won four in a row. The line on this game is the “tell” though as the Nuggets were just a -3.5-point favorites at Indiana who we rate higher than Memphis. Why the low number? In contrarian fashion we will be the opposite of the way Vegas wants you to bet. Back the home dog here.

ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets -2.5 over Boston Celtics, 7:35 PM ET - Brooklyn is the team to beat in the East and Boston has certainly slipped in our power rankings since the start of the season. The Celtics went into the All-Star break on a 4-game winning streak but prior to that had been just average. In comparison the Nets have played extremely well in their last ten games going 9-1 SU with an average differential of +10PPG. Brooklyn has shot 51% over that ten-game span and face a Celtics defense that 17th in defensive field goal percentage at 46.7%. The Nets are the 2nd best 3-point percentage shooting team in the league too at 40.7% which has helped them average 121PPG. The line on this game is clearly off as the Celtics were recently a +4.5-points underdog at home to the Clippers and the Nets rate near even to the LA in our metrics, meaning the Nets should be at least -4.5 here. When laying -4.5-points or less this season the Nets are 100% or 6-0 ATS. Bet the Nets at home in this one.

ASA top play on 10* San Antonio Spurs +4.5 over Dallas Mavericks, 8:30PM ET - We like the Spurs here and the points in this Texas showdown. When you think of the Mavs you think of offense and points, but the reality is, they rank just 4-spots higher in total offense than the Spurs do and both are in the bottom half of the NBA in scoring. The big advantage the Spurs have here is defense. San Antonio ranks 10th in points allowed per game compared to the Mavericks ranking 18th. The Spurs can also exploit the Mavericks on the glass with the 10th best offensive rebounding margin in the NBA, going up against the Mavs 22nd ranked defensive unit. The Spurs limped into the All-Star break but were hampered by injuries. Dallas won 8 of their last twelve games which is why this line is what it is and offering value. San Antonio has been incredible on the road this season with a 9-4 SU record and a +3.9PPG average margin of victory which is 9th best in the NBA. Dallas on the other hand has a negative differential at home of minus -2.2PPG which ranks 20th. Easy call with the Spurs here and the points.

ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Sun -6.5 over Golden State Warriors, 10PM ET - The Warriors could feel the effects of a close game last night in Portland where the key starters saw 30+ minutes of action, while the Suns were at home resting. Phoenix is coming off an impressive win over the Lakers in which Devin Booker was ejected in the 3rd quarter and the second unit played the majority of the 4th quarter in a convincing road win. Golden State relies heavily on Steph Curry to carry the offensive load while Draymond Green does all the dirty work on the defensive end of the court. The Warriors are 3-6 SU their last nine road games and have a loss here earlier this season by 21-points. The Warriors rank 23rd in the NBA with a negative road point differential of minus -4.3PPG. Phoenix is 11-6 SU at home and have the 3rd best average margin of victory at home of +7.2PPG. Both teams are near even when it comes to offensive statistics, but the Suns hold a decisive advantage defensively allowing 5 less points per game than Golden State and rank 2nd in the NBA in 3-point percentage defense. Golden State is 6-17-1 ATS their last 24 games playing without rest and that trend continues here.

ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets -8 over Houston Rockets, 7:30 PM ET - This game sets up very similar to when we bet on the Nets over the Warriors in KD’s first game back in the Bay when Brooklyn handled Golden State. James Harden will play with a chip on his shoulder tonight back in Houston for the first time since being traded to the Nets. The NBA is driven by 3-point shooting and the Nets are the 2nd best shooting team from beyond the arc this season at 40.5%. Houston is LAST in the league in 3-point shooting at 33%. Brooklyn will have their way offensively here with the highest scoring offense in the NBA at 120.8PPG going up against a Rockets defense that gives up 112.2PPG (18th). The Rockets are clearly reeling right now with 11-straight losses and 8 of those beats came against teams with sub .500 records. Brooklyn has won and covered 6 straight road games and they’ll get another big win here.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 215.5 NY Knicks vs. San Antonio Spurs, 8:35 PM ET - Both teams have favored the Under on the season with a combined 25-40 Under record and tonight they add to that record. These two teams are similar in many regards including poor offense ranking 21st (Spurs) and 29th (Knicks) in scoring in the NBA. When it comes to offensive efficiency the Spurs are 21st in the league while the Knicks are 23rd. It’s also no secret both teams like to play defense. The Knicks allow just 104PPG on the year which is the best overall number in the NBA while the Spurs give up 111.7PPG which ranks 12th. New York has the 2nd best defensive efficiency numbers allowing just 1.081-points per possession, the Spurs give up 1.108PPP which is 11th best in the NBA. The other important factor here is pace of play. The Knicks are the slowest paced team in the NBA at 96.2 possessions per game so playing slow is a priority for New York. The Spurs are 12th in pace of play but they are coming off a game last night so expect them to play at a slower tempo here. In fact, in games that the Spurs have played without rest the average total points scored in those contests is just 205.8PPG. San Antonio is on a 4-1 Under run at home and have stayed Under in 6 of their last eight overall. New York is on a ridiculous 14-3 Under streak their last 17 road games. Bet UNDER in the Knicks vs. Spurs.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 226 Denver Nuggets @ Chicago Bulls, 8 PM ET - Points shouldn’t be a problem for these two teams tonight as both average 114+ points per game and rank in the top 8 in overall scoring. The interesting part though is both teams score in different fashions. The Bulls get their points with volume scoring opportunities as they are the 4th fastest paced team in the NBA. The Nuggets don’t play fast, but score with the 5th most efficient offense in the NBA at 1.17-points per possession. Another reason for plenty of scoring here is the lack of defense by both teams. You have to scroll down the defensive efficiency list to 14th to find the Bulls and 20th for the Nuggets. Chicago has the 9th best 3-point shooting FG percentage in the NBA, Denver is 5th. Both teams rank 7th or higher in overall field-goal percentage. Nuggets on 20-6 Over streak as a road favorite, Bulls 7-3 to the Over their last ten as a home dog.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 223 Golden State Warriors @ LA Lakers, 8 PM ET - Our analytics don’t see these two rivals combining for more than 218 total points in this contest. You’ll be surprised to know that neither of these two teams rank in the top half of the NBA when it comes to offensive efficiency. The Warriors (18th) average 1.11PPP while the Lakers (19th) average 1.109PPP. In their last five games the Lakers have been worse yet averaging 1.029PPP which is 29th in the league, barely above the Timberwolves. On the other end of the court though both teams have been outstanding this season when it comes to defense. The Lakers are the #1 rated defensive efficiency team in the league while the Warriors are 4th. Inside their DEFF numbers a couple key stats that stand out are each teams FG% defense as they Warriors rank 2nd overall in the NBA, the Lakers 5th. Golden State is coming off a high scoring game against a bad defensive team in Charlotte, but prior to that game had totaled less than 220 total points in three straight games. As we mentioned before the Lakers offense has been atrocious without Anthony Davis in the lineup as L.A. has failed to reach 100-points in three of their last five games and 102 or less in four of five. Golden State on 5-1 Under run their last six road games, Lakers Under in 5 of their last six.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 215 NY Knicks @ Detroit Pistons, 8 PM ET - This certainly isn’t a marquee game on the ticket Sunday but it’s one that offers the best opportunity to win. Let’s start with pace of play first. These two teams are two of the slowest paced teams in the NBA and neither want to get up and down here. In fact, the Knicks are the slowest paced team in the NBA at 96.1 possessions per game, while the Pistons are the 6th slowest. When it comes to offense both teams struggle as the Pistons average just 108PPG which ranks 25th in the NBA. Detroit is 28th in field goal percentage and 25th in 3-point percentage. The Pistons are 25th in offensive efficiency rating averaging .979-points per possession. New York has similar numbers when it comes to offense as they score just 104.7PPG (29th), shot just 45.1% (24th) and 36.4% from beyond the 3-point line. The Knicks are also one of the worst offensive efficiency teams in the league ranking 23rd. Defensively the Knicks are 3rd in the NBA in points allowed per possession at 1.087PPP while the Pistons are 19th at 1.123PPP. The Knicks are 4-13 Under on the road this season while the Pistons are 6-9 Under at home. Pistons on 5-1 Under run overall, while Knicks on 21-9 Under streak last 30 games. These two don’t reach 210 total points here.

ASA top play on 10* New York Knicks +1 over Indiana Pacers, 8 PM ET - We like the situation to fade the Pacers here who are playing the second night of a back-to-back and 3rd game in four nights. Indiana lost a big game last night against the Celtics with four of their five starters logging heavy minutes. That’s a big concern considering they rank 25th in bench scoring in the NBA and lack depth. The Pacers will have a tough time scoring here against a Knicks team that is 1st in points allowed per game, 1st in FG% defense and 1st in 3-point percentage D. New York allows just 1.087 points per possession which ranks 3rd overall in the NBA. New York has struggled offensively for the season but seem to have found their rhythm after putting up 140 points against the Kings. The Knicks have won 5 of their last seven games including 4 of their last five at home. The play here is New York.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 237.5 Minnesota Timberwolves @ Washington Wizards, 7PM ET - The Total on this game seems relatively high in the mid-230’s but our predictive analytics are projecting 240 plus in this game. Minnesota recently made a coaching change but it won’t affect their style of play as new coach Finch prefers to play fast and shoot a lot of 3’s. The Wolves currently 6th in the league in possessions per game which plays right into Washington’s hands who rank 1st in the NBA in pace. Washington is one of the highest scoring teams in the league led by the 1-2 combination of Beal and Westbrook. The Wolves are coming off a game against the Bulls who are similar to Washington in terms of pace and efficiency ratings and that game had 238 total points at the end or regulation. The Wiz are coming off three straight games against some of the leagues slower paced teams and will welcome the faster pace they prefer on Saturday. Neither team is known for their defense as the Wizards own the 27th ranked defensive efficiency unit while the Wolves are 22nd. Minnesota gives up 116.1PPG (27th) while Washington allows 119.5PPG (29th). The last five meetings between these two teams have all resulted in 239 or more points. BET OVER!

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 222.5 Sacramento Kings @ NY Knicks, 7:30 PM ET - Two contrasting styles square off in the Garden Thursday night where the faster paced Kings (20th in pace) take on the leagues slowest paced team in the Knicks. New York is one of the best defensive teams in the NBA allowing just 1.084 points per possession which is 3rd best in the league. The Kings on the other hand are last in the league in DEFF allowing 1.190PPP. Offensively the Knicks are 23rd in the NBA in offensive efficiency averaging 1.081PPP, the Kings rank 11th at 1.131PPP. The Kings have given up a ton of points in their last five games which has driven this Total up to as high as it currently is but the reality is they’ve faced some of the NBA’s highest scoring teams recently. Sacramento gave up 127 and 136 to the Nets (1st in scoring), 128 to Milwaukee (2nd), 122 Chicago (8th) and 118 to the Heat who are finally healthy. The Knicks aren’t interested in playing a fast-paced game and getting into a shootout, so they’ll dictate tempo. New York has held 5 of their last ten opponents to less than 100-points and they’ve scored less than 110 in 8 of their last ten. The Kings are on a 5-0 Under run against losing teams while the Knicks are 10-1 Under their last eleven against sub .500 teams. The bet here is UNDER the Total.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 217.5 San Antonio Spurs @ Oklahoma City Thunder, 8 PM ET - When we combined these two team’s overall O/U records we see there is a slight trend towards the Under with a 27 Over & 31 Under combined record. The Spurs are in a tough spot here playing their first game after a 10-day layoff because of Covid protocols. San Antonio had to call up some players from the G-league and will be down to 10-players on the roster tonight. Missing from the Spurs lineup are FIVE double-digit scorers and a combined 71.4 points per game! OKC comes into this game having scored 105 or less points in regulation in 5 of their last nine games and 110 or less in 6 of nine. The Thunder are the WORST offensive efficiency team in the NBA at 1.050 points per possession, the Spurs aren’t much better (21st) at 1.100PPP. Both teams are solid defensively though with San Antonio ranking 10th in defensive efficiency, the Thunder are 13th in DEFF. When the Spurs have face losing teams with a below .400 winning percentage, they are 5-2 to the Under this season. Tying into that same train of thought, the Thunder are Under 14 of their last twenty when facing a team with a winning record. The bet here is UNDER

ASA top play on 10* Philadelphia 76ers Money Line -120 over Toronto Raptors, 7:35 PM ET - We like the 76ers in this second game of the back-to-back with the Raptors who won the first meeting by 7-points. The Raptors won Sunday but Philly clearly had some anomalies which attributed to Toronto’s win. 76ers center Joel Embiid had a poor shooting night going 6 of 20 from the field, which is well below his season average of 53.6%. Embiid was coming off a 50-point game so the let down is not a surprise given the circumstances. Because of Embiids poor shooting night, the Raptors outscored the Sixers in the paint which is not normal considering Philly is 14th in the league compared to Toronto being 28th in points in the paint. Philadelphia is the 9th best shooting team in the NBA at 47.7% but shot just 39% on Sunday. The Raptors are the 22nd worst shooting team in the league, yet shot 49%, well above their season average against Philly on Sunday. The Raptors do not enjoy a home court advantage like they typically have in the past as their home games are currently played in Florida. With the 76ers back at full strength and coming off a loss to Toronto we like them here in payback mode.

ASA top play on 10* Washington Wizards +7 over LA Lakers, 10 PM ET - If you’ve followed ASA for any length of time you know stats, averages, numbers drive our handicapping process. But there also other factors that go into it and we couldn’t help but notice how tired LeBron looked in the Lakers last game against the Heat. James played 37+ minutes, scored 19-points on 7 of 21 shooting, with 11 rebounds and 9 assists. It’s clear the real MVP of the Lakers is Anthony Davis and without him on the court the Lakers and the aging James are good, but not great. We are ignoring the full season statistics for both teams in this matchup and focusing on the last five games for each. Without AD the Lakers offensive efficiency numbers have plummeted as have their defensive efficiency ratings. The Lakers have the #1 ranked defensive efficiency on the season, but in their last five games they rank 14th. Los Angeles is 2-3 SU their last five games and off two straight losses against Brooklyn and Miami. The Wizards on the other hand look like they’ve started to figure things out. Washington has won 4 straight games and they’ve come against quality competition (Boston, Houston, Denver & Portland). The Wiz have one of the worst defensive efficiency ratings in the NBA on the season but in their last five games they rank 4th best. In their last five games the Wiz are shooting 46.5% and holding foes to 43% shooting. In that same span of those games the Lakers are shooting 45.5% and allowing 47.6%. The Lakers are 0-7 ATS when playing a below .500 opponent this season and this number is too much for the short-handed Lakers to cover. Wizards on a 5-1 ATS run their last six against a team with a winning record.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 237 Sacramento Kings @ Milwaukee Bucks, 9 PM ET - The Bucks are coming off a couple low scoring games against Toronto and Oklahoma City but now face a Kings team that is one of the worst in the NBA defensively. In fact, the Kings rank 30th in the NBA in defensive efficiency as they allow 1.187 points per possession or 119.3PPG. Sacramento’s defense is last in the league in field goal percentage D and 29th in 3-point percentage D. This game presents the perfect opportunity for a Bucks offense that has been struggling to return to early season success. Milwaukee is 2nd in the league in scoring at 118.9PPG, 2nd best shooting team overall and own the 3rd best 3-point FG%. Obviously, to get this Over to cash we are going to need both teams to play fast. The Bucks are 5th in the league in pace of play while the Kings are 11th so we can expect a faster paced game. Also, we will need Sacramento to score here to get to this number and the Kings rank 12th in offensive efficiency at 1.131PPP. Based on recent Total on Milwaukee games this number is actually a bargain considering the opponent. Bet OVER here.

ASA top play on 10* Portland Trailblazers -4 over Washington Wizards, 10 PM ET - The Wiz have the 4th worst average loss margin in the NBA when playing on the road at minus -8.1PPG and hold a 3-12 SU road record. Portland has been better on the road than they’ve been at home this season, but they have won three straight home games and are on a red hot 6-game winning streak overall. The Blazers current run of 6 straight wins have come by an average of 8.6PPG. On the season the Blazers have some disturbing defensive numbers but so do the Wizards as both teams rank in the bottom six of the league in efficiency numbers. In their last five games though the Blazers are averaging 1.257 points per possession which is 5th best in the NBA. Even though Washington has won 3 straight games, their offensive efficiency their last five games ranks 22nd in the league and they have a negative differential of -2.6PPG. The biggest separator here is 3-point shooting. Washington holds the 25th worst 3-point percentage defense in the NBA allowing 38.4% while Portland is the 5th best 3-point shooting team in the NBA at 38.9%. The All-Star starters were recently released and MVP candidate Damian Lillard got snubbed so expect a motivated effort from him here. Washington is just 2-6 ATS their last eight road games, Blazers 6-1 ATS their last 7 at home against a team with a losing record.

ASA top play on 10* Chicago Bulls +8.5 over Philadelphia 76ers, 7:35PM ET - The Bulls have played better than expectations this season as evidenced by their overall winning spread record of 16-11 versus the number. Chicago has a losing overall record of 12-15 SU but their average loss margin is -0.8PPG which gets you a lot of covers as an underdog. In fact, the Bulls are on a wallet stuffing 10-1 ATS streak as a road underdog. The Bulls are more than capable of trading points with the 76ers with a top 10 scoring offense, 8th best overall shooting percentage in the NBA and the 7th best 3-point percentage at 38%. Philadelphia is 19-10 SU on the year with an average margin of victory of +3PPG. When playing at home the Sixers have a +/- differential of +6PPG which is 6th best in the league but still not enough to cover this spread against the Bulls. Philly is 5-2 ATS their last seven games at home as a favorite but only of those covers were as a favorite of this magnitude. In fact, when laying 7 or more points at home the 76ers are on a 1-3 ATS slide. Philly has a pair of bigger games on deck coming against Toronto and may look past this Bulls team. Grab the points.

ASA top play on 10* Sacramento Kings +1.5 over Miami Heat, 10 PM ET - Scheduling clearly favors the Kings here who are rested and facing a Heat team coming off a big game against the Warriors last night AND have the Lakers looming on deck. Can you blame the Heat if they look past a Kings team that has lost four straight at home? Sacramento put together a four-game winning streak, prior to the 0-4 run, versus solid competition with wins against the Pelicans, Celtics, Nuggets and Clippers. A big reason the Kings have a losing record is their lack of defense, but Miami’s offensive numbers have been just as bad as the Kings defense. The Heat are 4-9 SU on the road this season with a negative differential of minus -5.5PPG. Let’s not forget Miami was bad on the road a year ago too with a 14-19 SU record and a -2.7 margin of victory. We expect the Kings to get a solid home win here given the scheduling circumstances.

ASA top play on 10* Atlanta Hawks +3 over Boston Celtics, 7:35 PM ET - This game has some interesting movement on the spread as the line opened with Boston a larger favorite, got public support, and the line moved in the opposite direction. That’s a strange move consider the Hawks are just 2-8 SU their last ten games and have lost four straight. Granted we have lost a little value in this number, but the Hawks are the play here. In their last five games the Celtics have a 2-3 SU record with a negative differential of -1.2PPG. Boston’s offensive efficiency is down considerably in their last five games but they’re defensive efficiency numbers are good. In comparison, the Hawks have lost four of five, yet they have better OEFF numbers than the Celtics but worse DEFF. Atlanta has a plus/minus differential of minus -4.8PPG in this five game streak which isn’t far off this spread. The Hawks are 5-7 SU on the road this season but have a positive differential of +1.2PPG which is 13th best in the NBA. The Hawks are very good at defending the 3-point line (2nd best in the NBA) and negate the Celtics strength of 3-point shooting (6th). Boston is coming off a huge win last night over Denver and let down a little here. Bet the Hawks.

ASA top play on 10* Milwaukee Bucks -5.5 over Toronto Raptors, 8 PM ET - The Bucks are coming off a straight up loss as a double-digit favorite and we like them to bounce back here against the Raptors who beat them in the conference finals two years ago. Milwaukee is coming off a tough six game West coast road trip with three straight losses but now return home where they are 9-2 SU on the season. Milwaukee’s two losses at home this year came against the Lakers and Jazz who are arguably the two best teams in the league. The Bucks have the second-best overall point differential in the NBA at +8.1PPG, the highest NBA average at home at +13.5PPG. The Bucks last three home wins have come by 20, 28 and 14-points. The Raptors are playing their 7th road game in their last eight contests and have a 6-9 SU road record on the year. Toronto’s road differential is 13th in the league at +1.2PPG. Both teams shoot the 3-ball well and don’t defend it well but Milwaukee is the better overall shooting team at 49.2% compared to 45.1% for Toronto. Since 2018 the Bucks are 76-15 SU on their home floor with an average margin of victory of +13.2PPG. Lastly, earlier this season the Bucks were favored by -6.5-points at Toronto (in Miami) and now laying less here.

ASA top play on 10* Miami Heat +3.5 over LA Clippers, 10 PM ET - The line on this game suggests Paul George won’t be in the lineup for the Clippers tonight and the Heat, who are nearly back to full strength, will take advantage. Miami has struggled to a 11-15 SU record but they’ve been hit harder by injuries to their starting lineup with Butler, Herro, Dragic and Bradley all missing extended time. Butler and Herro are back and the Heat have won 4 of their last five games. In their last five games the Heat have the best overall defensive efficiency numbers allowing just 1.029-points per possession. The Clippers have the best overall offensive efficiency numbers in the NBA which can largely be attributed to great 3-point shooting. We feel LA’s hot shooting must regress and is unsustainable for a long period of time. The Clippers are shooting over 42% from deep this season which is significantly better than the league average of 36.8%. Miami is allowing near league average in 3-point percentage shooting by opponents this season, but injuries have had an impact. Last year the Heat were the 5th best team in the NBA defending the 3-point line. The Clippers have won 7 of their last ten games but NONE of those have come against a team with a winning record. Miami is off a loss (34-16-1 ATS run off a loss) in Utah in their previous game while the Clippers have a HUGE two game set against the Jazz next.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 228.5 San Antonio Spurs @ Charlotte Hornets, 7PM ET - These two teams have been playing at a faster rate lately but their offensive efficiency numbers haven’t been very good for the season. The Spurs are the 21st worst offensive efficiency team in the NBA while the Hornets are 18th. San Antonio is the 20th ranked shooting team in the league and 17th from beyond the arc. Charlotte doesn’t shoot it much better at 45.7% overall (18th) but do hit 38% of their 3’s which is top ten. San Antonio has a top ten defensive efficiency rating allowing just 1.104-points per possession on the season. Charlotte is average in DEFF, ranking 16th at 1.118PPP. The Hornets have been much better at home defensively though with the 11th best DEFF and the Spurs in their last five games move up the rankings to the 5th best defensive efficiency number. The Hornets are on a 7-3-1 Under run at home as a dog while the Spurs on a 7-3 Under run when favored. Our computers project 223 total points here and we couldn’t agree more.

ASA top play on 10* New Orleans +3 @ Dallas Mavericks, 7:35 PM ET - The bet here is New Orleans. If we look at the full season the Pelicans have the 8th best overall offensive efficiency rating in the NBA and in their last five games, they improve to 2nd overall. On the season the Mavs have the 15th best OEFF, or an average number by league standards. In their last five games though the Mavs have played better than average with the 4th best offensive efficiency numbers. The difference is the Pelicans improvement offensively in their last five games came against three teams that rank in the top 10 of the NBA in defensive efficiency. In comparison the Mavs played three games against teams that rank in the bottom half of the league in DEFF so their improvement shouldn’t come as a shock. Defensively Dallas has been far worse than New Orleans in their last five games as the Mavs are allowing 1.251-points per possession which is the second worst number in the NBA. Both teams are 4-1 SU their last five games but again, the Pels wins came against better overall competition AND they have a +9.6PPG differential compared to the Mavs negative or minus -3.4PPG. As a dog of +4.5 or less the Pelicans are 5-2 ATS this season and they’ve covered 4 straight as a Dog. As a favorite in that same price range the Mavs are just 4-6 ATS. It hasn’t been profitable to play the Mavericks at home in recent times as they sport a 5-16 ATS record at home in their last 21.

ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -3.5 over Toronto Raptors, 7:35 PM ET - This is a great spot to fade the Raptors and back the Celtics. This is a fill in game tonight and the Raptors are in a horrible scheduling situation with this being the backend of a second consecutive games. This will also be Toronto’s 5th game in just seven days. The Raptors played their starters extended minutes last night in their fast paced game against the Wizards and fatigue is going to be a factor. Boston has last night off and is coming off a pair of losses against two of the better teams in the West the Suns and Jazz so you can bet the C’s will be focused here. Boston is a perfect 3-0 ATS at home this season when coming off a SU loss. The Celtics have the 10th best home court point differential in the NBA at +4.4PPG and are 4-1 ATS as a home chalk this season. Boston has covered 7 of the last nine meetings and our metrics have them winning this game by 10+ points.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 233.5 Atlanta Hawks vs. Dallas Mavericks, 7:35PM ET - We have to bet the value here and play Under. These two teams just met a week ago and the oddsmaker set a number of 223 on the game and now this game is a full 10-points higher. In the meeting last week these two teams scored 238 total points but both teams shot extremely well in that game and field goal attempts (+8 combined for the game) for both teams were above normal. Both teams are in the bottom half of the league in pace or tempo and Dallas is average in offensive efficiency. The Hawks are 11th in the league in OEFF but in their last five games they are 17th and their scoring is down 2PPG. The Hawks are on a 6-1 Under streak their last seven road games while Dallas is 7-3 to the Under this season against the East.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 226.5 Houston Rockets @ New Orleans Pelicans, 7:35 PM ET - These same two teams squared off Jan 30th with the two teams scoring 238 total points. Both teams attempted 91 and 92 field goals in that game which are above league average and more than each teams 87FGA average this season. With this being such a close turnaround meeting we expect both teams defenses to outperform the offenses. The Pelicans are one of the slower paced teams in the NBA (20th) and the RESTED home team so we expect them to dictate tempo. The Rockets are playing the second night of a back to back and 3rd in four nights so you can bet they aren’t interested in playing fast. The Rockets are the second most efficient defense in the NBA behind the Lakers and have held their last five opponents to 107.6PPG. The Pelicans have put up some impressive offensive numbers in their last three games but none of those defenses are as good as the one they’ll see tonight. Lastly, in the meeting on Jan 30th the oddsmakers set a Total of 223.5 on the game and it went well Over the number so why no adjustment here? Bet Under!

ASA top play on 10* Cleveland Cavaliers +7.5 over Phoenix Suns, 9 PM ET - The situation is right for a Cavs cover here with the Suns coming off a big win over the Celtics and have a marquee game on deck against the Bucks. The Suns are 6-4 SU at home with a solid point differential of +6.2PPG but even at that number it’s still not enough to cover this spread. Three of the Suns home wins have come by less than 10-points. Cleveland comes into this game on a three-game losing streak, but the losses came against the Bucks twice and the Clippers who are easily two of the best teams in the NBA, and while the Suns are good, they are not on that level yet. The Cavs have the worst road point differential in the NBA but if you eliminate one horrible 38-point loss in Boston that number drops significantly to just -7PPG. Phoenix is in unfamiliar territory here as this big of a favorite as they’ve laid 7 or more points only two other times this season going 1-1 ATS. We expect a letdown by Phoenix here and a much better effort by the Cavs off several poor showings. Bet Cleveland.

ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns -3 over Boston Celtics, 2 PM ET - It would be interesting to flip these two teams into the other conference and see where they stand. As it is right now the Suns are a mid-to-lower playoff team in the West while Boston is considered a top 4 team in the East. Our metrics suggest the Suns would be regarded similarly as the Celtics currently are in the East and vice versa. The Suns are 5-2 SU as a home favorite this season with an average margin of victory of +9.4PPG. Three of the Suns losses this season have come against Denver twice and the Clippers who are two of the top four teams in the West along with the Lakers and Jazz. Boston is coming off a road win against the Clippers, but they were in a favorable scheduling situation as the Clippers were off a long East coast trip. Boston’s other road wins this season have come against teams that have a combined 56-79 SU record. The C’s rank 11th in offensive efficiency on the road but drop all the way to 18th in DEFF. Phoenix is 15th in OEFF at home but rank 2nd in defensive efficiency allowing just 1.055-points per possession on their home court. Boston is without a pair of starters here in Jaylen Brown and Marcus Smart and don’t have enough depth to overcome those losses. Our computers have the Suns winning by 7 here.

ASA top play on 10* Atlanta Hawks +5 over Toronto Raptors, 8 PM ET - The line move on this game is an indicator Trae Young will be in the lineup for the Hawks tonight and we like Atlanta as a home dog here. Let’s start there. Atlanta is coming off their worst shooting night of the season as they hit just 33% from the field versus the Jazz in a blowout loss. Our models like them to bounce back here against an average Toronto team coming off a big upset of the Nets last night. The Hawks schedule of late has been brutal with five games against five of the best teams in the NBA (Jazz, Lakers, Clippers, Nets and Bucks). Now they take a step down against a Raptors team that has the same record as they do at 10-12 SU. Toronto has a positive road differential of +.5PPG but they are just 4-7 SU away from home and they are 0-2 SU this season when playing without rest. Atlanta is 0-4 ATS as a home dog this season BUT those losses came against some of the league’s elite teams and Toronto is not on that level. Toronto is 2-3 ATS as a road chalk this year. Finally, consider this, the Lakers just played here and were -7-points and now the Raptors are laying a number near that? Bet the Atlanta Hawks in this one.

ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets -4.5 over Toronto Raptors, 7:30 PM ET - The Nets win with offense and when the Big 3 of Kyrie, Harden and Durant are on the floor they’re nearly impossible to defend. In their last five games the Nets have an offensive efficiency rating of 1.252 points per possession and are averaging 129.4PPG. The concern for Brooklyn is their defense but they have the ability to turn it up against good teams. The Nets are allowing 1.136PPP on the season which ranks then 26th in the NBA but in their last eight games against winning teams that efficiency rating improves dramatically. In their last five games the Nets have a +8PPG point differential which is 5th best in the league. Toronto has struggled out of the gate this NBA season with a 9-12 SU, 8-13 ATS record. The Raptors are off two wins versus an Orlando team that is 8-14 SU and dealing with injuries so we’re not impressed. Making a line comparison we see the Raptors were just +4.5 points at Indiana who isn’t on the same level as this Brooklyn team. Brooklyn is 5-1 SU their last six games and on a 5-0 spread run at home with the wins coming by an average of +6PPG. Toronto has an offensive efficiency rating of 1.116PPG which ranks 18th in the NBA and they’ll have a tough time keeping pace with the Nets here.

ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors +3 over Dallas Mavericks, 7:35 PM ET - It’s not a good spot for the Mavs who are off a game last night in Atlanta, playing their 3rd game in four days and 4th in six. Dallas will sit Porzingis here as he’s not ready for that type of workload and they don’t want to jeopardize a set back to his injuries. Porzingis is off a 24-point 11 rebound night in Atlanta last night. Golden State on the other hand is off a close loss a few nights ago but are rested here. The big difference between these two teams is 3-point shooting. The Mavs are the 30th ranked 3-point shooting team in the NBA at 32.7% and you don’t win in today’s NBA if you can’t shoot beyond the arc. The Warriors on the other hand shoot over 36% from deep which is 17th in the league. Granted the Warriors are without two of their “bigs” here in Looney and Wiseman, but the Mavs prefer the small ball lineup with Green at the five and the Mavs don’t have the personnel to take advantage. Dallas is 1-3 SU and ATS when playing without rest this season and they’ve lost those games by an average of 11PPG. Dallas is 0-5 ATS their last five at home, 0-4 ATS as a home favorite. Warriors have won seven of eight when playing against sub .500 teams this season and a road win here looks promising.

ASA top play on 10* Under 224 - Dallas Mavericks vs. Atlanta Hawks, 7:30 PM ET - This game is not going to get to league average or 222 total points. Let’s start with 3-point shooting for both teams. The Mavs rank 30th in 3-point shooting at 32.8%, Atlanta is 23rd at 35.2%. The Mavs average 108.7PPG, the Hawks score 112.5PPG. Both rank in the bottom half of the NBA in overall FG percentage shooting. Dallas and their opponents have totaled less than 224 total points in four straight games and seven of their last ten. When we examine the Hawks' scores, we see they have not topped 224 total points in eight of their last ten games (if you eliminate OT’s). Both teams rank in the bottom half of the league in pace of play so we can’t see these two teams turning this into a transition track meet. The Under has cashed 4 straight in this series and Hawks on 7-0 Under streak when coming off a spread loss. The bet here is UNDER.

ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets +1.5 over LA Clippers, 7:35 PM ET - This is clearly a marquee game between two of Star ridden teams and we like the Nets at home in a win. The Clippers have won 10 of their last eleven games and are starting to look like the team that was supposed to win a Championship last season. But a closer look at this current streak doesn’t have us as excited as Clipper fans are. In their last ten wins the Clippers best win is over the Indiana Packers who are 11-9 SU on the season and not ONE of the other wins came against a team that is above .500 right now. The Clippers are one of the top teams in the NBA in offensive efficiency and have risen up the ranks in defensive efficiency (11th) lately because of the weak schedule. We like the fact Brooklyn comes into this game off an upset loss against a very motivated Wizards team and will look to get back on track here. The Nets have won 7 of their last ten games with one of those coming at home against the Bucks. James Harden sat out the other night but is expected back here giving the Nets their vaunted “Big 3” on the offensive end of the court which makes them extremely difficult to defend. The Clippers have some injury questions of their own with two starters (Batum, Beverley) potentially out again tonight. The bigger Stars rise to the occasion tonight and get a home win.

ASA top play on 10* Atlanta Hawks +6 over the LA Lakers, 7:30 PM ET - Don’t bet this game on the names of the front of the jerseys or the history of the franchises, bet this game on value in the number. Surprisingly, the Hawks rank 8th in offensive efficiency ratings at 1.126 points per possession which coincidentally is the exact same OEFF as the Lakers. The Hawks defensive efficiency rating is 10th best in the NBA at 1.096PPP. L.A. leads the league at 1.048PPP allowed per game. The Lakers average point differential is +7.7PPG but the Hawks aren’t far behind at +3PPG. So, looking at the overall numbers there really isn’t as big separator between these two teams as you might think. LA has been on the road for six straight games with a 2-4 SU record but the four wins haven’t been blowouts by any means at +1, +7, +11 and +7PPG. The Hawks have played well with a 6-4 SU record their last ten games and the losses came at Utah, at Portland, at Milwaukee and home in overtime versus the Nets. This line looks like a trap with the Lakers so let’s bet the team Vegas doesn’t want us to, the Hawks!

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 219 Cleveland Cavaliers @ Minnesota Timberwolves, 7 PM ET - The Under is the play here with two of the worst offensive efficiency teams in the NBA. These two teams are literally 29th and 30th in the league in offensive efficiency averaging less than 1.05 points per possession. The Cavs are also 29th in the NBA in pace of play at 97 possessions per game and 12th in defensive efficiency. Minnesota plays fast and doesn’t play much defense but even with those two negatives their games have still averaged 224 total points per game this season. The games the Cavs have played in though have averaged just 213PPG. These are two poor shooting teams as the Cavaliers hit just 45% of their field goal attempts while the Wolves make just 43.5% of their shots which ranks them both in the bottom third of the league. Minnesota hasn’t cracked 100 points in 4 of their last seven games while Cleveland has scored 108 or less points in 7 of their last ten. We don’t see this game getting close to league average and will bet UNDER HERE.

ASA top play on 10* Golden State -5.5 over Detroit Pistons, 10 PM ET - Scheduling favors the Warriors here who are at home off a loss while Detroit is off a huge upset win of the Lakers. The Pistons are 1-7 SU on the road this season with an average differential of minus -6.5PPG. The Pistons have THE WORST defensive efficiency on the road this year 1.183PPP OR 119PPG. Detroit has lost three straight road games by 15, 8 and 6-points. Golden State has had their ups and downs, but they are still 7-4 SU at home with a plus +5.1PPG differential. The Warriors were just -8.5 and -9 points at home over the Timberwolves who are similar to this same Pistons team and Golden State won both by 22 and 12 points respectively. We like Golden State to bounce here off the loss to the Suns.

ASA top play on 10* Cleveland Cavaliers over NY Knicks, 7:30 PM ET - We like the spot to go against the Knicks here off a four-game west coast road trip and playing their first game back home. New York went 1-3 SU our west with their only win coming at Golden State. Cleveland seems to have found the right rotations and the new additions are paying immediate dividends. The Cavs have won 4 of their last six games with a pair of impressive wins over the Nets. Cleveland also has a home win over the Knicks in that stretch of games and that was without Prince or Allen. In their last five games the Cavs have the 4th best offensive efficiency rating in the NBA while the Knicks are 23rd in that same stretch of games. Cleveland has faced the Lakers, Celtics and Nets twice in that five-game span. New York has the 22nd worst home point differential in the NBA at minus -3.6PPG. Lastly, when Vegas sets a number on a game that begs you to take a team….don’t! It looks like a trap to take the Knicks so bet Cleveland.

ASA top play on 10* Houston Rockets -4 over Portland Trailblazers, 7:35 PM ET - The Rockets looked impressive in their 19-point win over Washington the other night when they had their version of the Big 3 on the court with Wall, Oladipo and Cousins. Unfortunately, Portland doesn’t have their full complement of players healthy right now with McCollum and Nurkic out for an extended time while Hood and Covington are less than 100%. The Blazers have four road wins this season but two of those were against the Kings who are 6-10 on the season. Portland was bad on the road a year ago with a 14-24 SU record and an average loss margin of minus -4.2PPG. We can’t pull statistics from the Rockets previous games this season (with Harden) but we can project what this collective group of players can accomplish based on individual efficiency statistics. Houston beat the Blazers earlier this season by 2-points in OT in Portland with McCollum and Nurkic combining for 56 points, 14 rebounds and 14 assists. It looks like a great time to buy low with Houston so we’ll back the Rockets here.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 219.5 Denver Nuggets @ Miami Heat, 7:35 PM ET - We will start with tempo here as these two teams rank in the bottom half of the league when it comes to pace with Denver 26th and Miami 18th. The number on this game is set slightly below league average, yet we can’t see these two teams getting there based on pace of play. Miami has struggled offensively without Jimmy Butler or Tyler Herro in the lineup which is a big reason why they are 24th in the NBA in offensive efficiency ratings. In their last five games the Heat are averaging just 1.055 points per possession which is 2nd to last in the league. In that same five game span though the Heat have picked it up on the other end of the floor with the 12th best defensive efficiency rating. As we mentioned, Denver plays slow but they do make up for it with a highly efficient offense which can largely be attributed to Nikola Jokic who is nearly averaging a triple-double this season. But Jokic will have his hands full with defensive stopper Bam Adebayo and that will impact the overall efficiency of the entire Nuggets offense. Miami and their opponents have scored 220 or less points in 5 of their last six. If we eliminate over-time, Denver games have also totaled 220 or less in 5 of their last six games. Based on value, pace and Bam Adebayo we like Under here.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 223 Denver Nuggets @ Dallas Mavericks, 8:35 PM ET - Denver is coming off a pair of overtime games against Phoenix and the last thing they want to do here is play a fast-paced up-and-down affair with the Mavs. That shouldn’t be a concern though as the Mavericks are the 21st slowest paced team in the NBA and prefer to play slow. Denver is also one of the slowest paced teams in the league ranking 26th at 97.6 possessions per game. If we eliminate the overtimes the Nuggets have played in three of their last ten games, we find they’ve combined with their opponents to scored less than 223 points in seven of those ten games. While we are on the subject of overtimes, these two teams met on Jan 7th and totaled 218-points prior to an OT period. Dallas is coming off a game against the Rockets in which they allowed 133 points on 55% shooting by Houston. The Mavs have the 12th best FG% defense in the NBA at 45.5%. Dallas also gives up the 10th fewest points in the league at 109.4PPG. Prior to the OT game between these two earlier this year these same two teams had not totaled more than 218 points in five straight meetings. The bet here is UNDER.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 221 New Orleans Pelicans at Minnesota Timberwolves, 8 PM ET - The oddsmakers are telling us this game should be average in scoring based on league numbers, but our math models tell us differently. Our projections are 218.5 total points being scored here and a solid Under bet. Today’s NBA is driven by 3-point shooting and these two teams are two of the worst in the NBA from beyond the arc as both shoot just 33.4% which ranks 26th and 27th. The Pelicans new coach Stan Van Gundy has a reputation for defense, but they’ve given up ton of points their last five games. When we analyze those last five games though we see the Pels have played the 1st, 5th, 7th and 14th ranked offensive efficiency teams in the league. The Timberwolves are on the complete opposite end of the spectrum in that regard with the 29th (second to last) OEFF in the NBA. Minnesota has scored less than 100-points in four of their last five games. The Pelicans have had their own offensive struggles this season with an offensive efficiency rating of 1.092 which ranks 19th. New Orleans is one of the slower paced teams in the NBA this season and the Wolves have been much slower in their last five games compared to season averages. The last four times these two teams have met in Minny it’s resulted in an Under. That trend continues here. BET UNDER!

ASA top play on 10* Sacramento Kings -4 over NY Knicks, 10 PM ET - This is certainly a bad spot for the Knicks playing the second night of a back to back and third game in four days. New York is coming off a game last night against the Warriors so fatigue will be a factor. The Knicks are just 4-9 SU the past two years when playing without rest and they’ve lost those games by an average of -10.5PPG. Overall New York does not do well when it comes to facing a Western Conference opponent with a 7-19 SU record their last 26 and they typically get beat bad by an average of 10.3PPG. Even though Sacramento has a 36-51 SU record the past two years they are 8-8 SU at home as a favorite. The Kings have lost 4 in a row but two of those came against the Clippers and one was against Portland and New Orleans who are all better than the Knicks. The Kings have the 11th best offensive efficiency rating in the NBA while the Knicks are 26th. New York has a solid overall defensive efficiency but they’ve played a soft schedule. Sacramento is desperate for a win and should get one by double digits here.

ASA top play on 10* Utah Jazz -6.5 over New Orleans Pelicans, 10 PM ET - We successfully played on the Jazz the other night against this Pelicans team and will do it again here. Despite playing just 5 home games and 9 road games the Jazz have a +/- differential this season of plus +6PPG which rates 4th best in the NBA. Utah has caught fire with six straight wins and covers, most recently a win against this same Pels team. The Jazz are one of three teams in the NBA that can boast a top 10 offensive and defensive efficiency rating in the NBA and the other two are the Lakers and Bucks. The Jazz are 54-25 SU at home since 2018 with an average margin of victory of +6.2PPG. In our opinion the Pelicans made a bad hire with Stan Van Gundy as their coach. It’s not that he isn’t a great coach, he’s just not the right fit for the Pelicans. New Orleans is 1-5 SU & ATS their last six games and three of those games were at home. The Pels are in the bottom half of the league in both offensive and defensive efficiency and they struggle to shoot the 3-ball at 33.4%. Why won't the Pelicans get a measure of revenge here with a win? The main reason is their inability to defend the 3 which was evident in the game the other night when Utah 21 of 47 3's or 45%. The Pels can't fix that defensive liability in 2 days so expect similar results. New Orleans has played three road games against similar competition to the Jazz and lost all three by double-digits. We like Utah by 10-points here.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 228 San Antonio Spurs @ Golden State Warriors, 9 PM ET - Our model is projecting 222 total points in this game or league average. We can make an immediate comparison with the Spurs most recent game against the Blazers. Vegas set a number of 226.5 in that game and they scored 229. But Portland is one of the worst defenses in the NBA allowing 1.14 points per possession while Golden State is better at 1.103PPP. Golden State is faster in pace of play than Portland but also way worse in offensive efficiency as the Warriors rank 24th. The Spurs have played Under in 4 of their last five games and if we eliminate the Overtime period they played against Minnesota, their total points scored in games has been less than 228 in 7 of their last ten. Golden State is struggling on the offensive end of the floor with the 24th ranked offensive efficiency rating in the NBA, shooting just 44% from the field overall and having the 20th ranked 3-point percentage. The Warriors defense has shown steady improvements though allowing 108 or less points in 5 of their last seven and the two games they gave up more than that were against two of the best offenses in the NBA (Nuggets/Lakers). San Antonio is below average in terms of offensive efficiency and scoring this season. Golden State has played in some higher scoring games this season, but they came against bad defensive teams and the Spurs rank 11th in DEFF so it won’t be easy tonight. We don’t see these two scoring more than 222.

ASA top play on 10* Utah Jazz -6 over New Orleans Pelicans, 9PM ET We know home favorites in the NBA have not done well this season, and the fact the Jazz are just 2-2 SU at home, but we like them here minus the points. Despite playing just 4 home games and 9 road games the Jazz have a +/- differential this season of plus +5.1PPG which rates 5th best in the NBA. Utah has caught fire with five straight wins and covers, most recently a road win at Denver, when their best player Donovan Mitchell didn’t play well. The Jazz are one of three teams in the NBA that can boast a top 10 offensive and defensive efficiency rating in the NBA and the other two are the Lakers and Bucks. The Jazz are 53-25 SU at home since 2018 with an average margin of victory of +6.2PPG. In our opinion the Pelicans made a bad hire with Stan Van Gundy as their coach. It’s not that he isn’t a great coach, he’s just not the right fit for the Pelicans. New Orleans is 1-4 SU & ATS their last five games and three of those games were at home. The Pels are in the bottom half of the league in both offensive and defensive efficiency and they struggle to shoot the 3-ball at 33.4%. New Orleans has played three road games against similar competition to the Jazz and lost all three by double-digits. We like Utah by 10-points here.

ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets +2.5 over Milwaukee Bucks, 7:30 PM ET - We are NOT betting this game because of the Harden deal! Yes, that’s certainly a factor but our analytics have the Bucks grade lower than the oddsmakers as they aren’t playing up to last years standards. The Bucks are 9-4 SU with a +/- differential of plus 10.8PPG. but they’ve faced an extremely easy schedule. Milwaukee has only faced two teams with current winning records, and they lost both of those games (Jazz, Celtics). In their current four game winning streak the teams they’ve beaten have a combined record of 21-27. The Nets now are the favorite in the East with arguably the three best individual scorers in the NBA on their roster. Harden, Durant and Irving can literally go for 50 on any given night and opposing coaches/teams will have nightmares trying to figure out how to stop them. Brooklyn has also played a soft schedule BUT they’ve beaten the four best teams they’ve faced (Denver, Philly, Utah & Boston). The Nets have too many superstars and will be out to prove a point here.

ASA top play on 10* Chicago Bulls +7 @ Dallas Mavericks, 3 PM ET - The Bulls have lost four straight games, but they’ve been competitive in all of those losing by a combined 11 total points. Prior to this losing streak they had won 4 of five games including a win at home over this Dallas team. In their last four game the Bulls lost to the Clippers by 3-points and the Lakers by 2-points, both on the road. As a dog this season the Bulls have covered 8 of ten games. The Mavs look like a MASH unit right now with several key contributors currently sidelined, but they did recently get Porzingis back in the lineup. Dallas is also on a nice spread run with five straight covers but all but one of those were as a dog or small favorite. The Mavs have a winning record at 6-5 SU with an average point differential of +4.3PPG which is not enough to cover here. Chicago has a negative differential of -4.8PPG this season which is good enough to get the money here. Dallas may win this game but it won’t be by a wide margin.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 227.5 LA Clippers @ Sacramento Kings, 10 PM ET - The Kings have struggled to stop anyone this season and teams have put up a ton of points against Sacramento’s defense. The Kings are allowing 122PPG on the season which ranks 30th in the NBA, they allow opponents to make 49.5% of their FG attempts (30th) and allow 38.9% 3-point shooting which is 26th. Factoring into this wager of course is the Kings pace of play which rates 8th fastest in the NBA and an offense that is 12th in the league in efficiency scoring 1.123 points per every possession. Sacramento has given up 122 or more points in 7 of their last eight games so expect the Clippers to get to at least that here. Speaking of the Clippers, they are coming off a game against the Bulls who have very similar numbers to the Kings and that game ended with 257 total points. L.A. is the 3rd most efficient offense in the NBA at 1.159 points per possession, but their defense ranks 26th worst allowing 1.144PPP. Let’s not forget the league average for total points scored in an NBA game this season is 222.8PPG and the Kings score and allow more than league average while the Clippers score more but allow slightly less. The opening total on this game by Vegas was accurate and the move down gives us added value. Bet Over.

ASA top play on 10* Toronto Raptors -7.5 over Charlotte Hornets, 7:30 PM ET - We have waited for a spot to play on the Raptors and this is a solid one. Toronto has gotten off to a horrible start by their expectations and are coming off a 4 game West coast road trip where they went 1-3 SU. They have just 2 wins on the season after going 53-19 in the regular season a year ago. Charlotte hasn’t been a great road team going 27-48 SU the past two years, last season they had the 4th worst average loss margin in the NBA of -8.1PPG. The Hornets are in a bad scheduling situation here playing their 3rd game in four nights and the second of a back to back after a game last night versus Dallas. This line is set up to draw Charlotte money and we won’t bite. Back the Raptors in this one.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 220 Dallas Mavericks @ Charlotte Hornets, 7 PM ET - An average NBA game this season finishes with 222.8 points per game this season. This number is obviously slightly lower than that but our analytics tell us this game won’t be ‘average’. These two teams know how to play defense with both ranking in the top 10 in the NBA in defensive efficiency. The Mavs are giving up just 106PPG on the season, Charlotte allows just 108PPG. The Mavericks are the 6th slowest paced team in the NBA at 98.2 possessions per game, Charlotte is the 10th slowest at 99.8 possessions. When it comes to offensive efficiency ratings both rate in the bottom half of the NBA with Dallas checking in at 17th, Charlotte is 12th. In their last five games both teams have put the clamps down defensively allowing 42% shooting by opponents which is significantly better than league average of 46%. Combined these two teams have stayed Under the number 14 of twenty games. The bet here is Under.

ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets +1 over Denver Nuggets, 7:30 PM ET - The Nets are off back-to-back losses and look to bounce back at home over Denver. Brooklyn had to play a few games without Kevin Durant who was in Covid protocols, then were without Kyrie Irving for a few games. No Irving here but they do have KD who scored 36-points in their most recent home loss to OKC. Brooklyn is currently in elite company in the NBA with a top 11 efficiency rating in both offense and defense with only the Bucks as the other team that can make that claim. Denver has the 2nd best offensive efficiency numbers in the league, but their defense ranks near the bottom on the NBA at 25th in defensive efficiency. Denver is 4-1 SU their last five games but two of those wins came over a bad Minnesota team, Dallas and Philly were both short-handed with Covid issues and the Knicks are really struggling right now. The current perception is the Nuggets are playing well but that’s a byproduct of weak competition. The Nets are off a pair of losses and motivated at home. Nuggets have not covered as a dog in four straight.

ASA top play on 10* Indiana Pacers -3 over Phoenix Suns, 7 PM ET - Two of the best defenses square off here when Phoenix rolls into Indianapolis for a game against the Pacers. Indiana has a scheduling advantage with the Suns come off a game last night in Detroit while the Pacers are rested. This will also be the Suns 3rd game in four days. Early on the Suns led the league in defensive efficiency but they’ve been steadily dropping in that category as the season has gone on. Indiana on the other hand has not and they can defend every position with the 7th best defensive efficiency in the NBA. The Pacers can also shoot it with the 2nd best overall FG% offense in the NBA at 49%. Indiana is 3-0-1 ATS their last four home games against a team with a winning road record and they catch the Suns in a favorable situation.

ASA top play on 10* NY Knicks -2.5 over Oklahoma City Thunder, 7:30 PM ET - The Knicks continue to compete, especially on the defensive end of the court which has been a trademark of head coach Tom Thibodeau wherever he’s been. It’s early in the season but the Knicks are 8th in defensive efficiency this season allowing just 1.062-points per possession. Last season the Knicks were 23rd in DEFF, giving up 1.130PPP. New York is holding foes to under .30% shooting from beyond the arc and below 44% from the field which both rank in the top 4 of the NBA. Oklahoma City has trouble scoring the way it is with the 30th ranked offense in terms of scoring this season at 102PPG. The Thunder don’t shoot well at 43.8% overall and 33% from the 3-point line. OKC is last in the league in offensive efficiency at 1.007PPP. Oklahoma City has the 2nd worst average point differential in the NBA at minus -8.7PPG. The Knicks have only played three home games but are 2-1 SU with impressive wins over the Bucks and Jazz and the lone loss against an elite 76ers team. The Thunder are coming off a road win over the Pelicans, but New Orleans is struggling right now so we’re not impressed. New York continue to be undervalued and we’ll buy low here.

ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets +2.5 over Philadelphia 76ers, 7:35 PM ET - This is a favorable schedule situation for the Nets as the 76ers played last night making this the back end of consecutive nights. This is also the Sixers 3rd game in four nights. The Sixers have enjoyed some “home cooking” this season with just 3 road games thus far where they are 2-1 SU. Brooklyn is without Kevin Durant here, but the Nets didn’t need him in a blowout the other night of the Jazz. The Nets have some solid depth which is why they don’t need to rely solely on their two SuperStars. Philly holds the advantage on the defensive end of the court but the gap between these two teams in terms of defensive efficiency isn’t great. The Nets though enjoy a definite advantage offensively with the 5th best offensive efficiency number compared to Philadelphia’s 15th (or league average). Philly is just 15-25-1 ATS as a road favorite their last 41 games and fatigue becomes a factor tonight.

ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns -3 over Toronto Raptors, 9 PM ET - We don’t have a reason to believe in the Raptors turning things around anytime soon as rumors are swirling about chemistry issues within the team. Toronto has gotten off to a 1-5 SU start with their only win coming at home against the Knicks. They didn’t show up for a HUGE game against Boston the other night at home when the Celtics looked like a MASH unit and still lost by 12-points. In three road games the Raptors have been beaten by 4 at New Orleans, 7 at Philly and 5 at San Antonio. If you don’t think the Suns are for real, think again. Phoenix has gotten off to a 5-2 start with impressive home wins on their resume over Dallas and New Orleans. The Suns are coming off a home loss which will have them focused and motivated here. Phoenix is doing it with the 4th best defensive efficiency rating in the NBA allowing just 1.045 points per possession and an offense that is ranked 10th overall in offensive efficiency. Toronto is one of the worst offensive teams in the NBA right now (29th in OEFF) and their defense isn’t what it was a year ago with Ibaka and Gasol now in L.A. The numbers haven’t caught up with the Raptors yet so this is a bargain price to play against them.

ASA top play on 10*: 501/502 #UNDER 231.5 Utah Jazz @ Brooklyn Nets, 7:35 PM ET - The Nets were already without a starter and one of their leading scorers in Dinwiddie and now must endure without Kevin Durant who is out after testing positive for Covid. The Nets have improved tremendously on the defensive end of the court allowing just 1.083 points per possession which is 13th best in the NBA. Utah is better yet, ranking 11th in DEFF allowing 1.075PPP. Brooklyn is one of the faster paced teams in the NBA ranking 7th BUT that’s a byproduct of playing games against Golden State, Washington, Atlanta twice and Charlotte who are all ranked in the top half of the league in pace of play. Now Utah comes to town who is the 24th slowest paced team in the league. Both teams shoot slightly better than league average, but both are much better in defensive FG% than the league norm. The Jazz are coming off their highest scoring game of the season a 130-point output against the Spurs where they shot the lights out. Those results have driven this line up and gives us tremendous value with the UNDER!

ASA top play on 10* Miami Heat -8 over Oklahoma City Thunder, 7:30 PM ET - This won’t be the last time we play against the Thunder as we just don’t feel they are going to be very good this season. The Thunder do have two road wins this season at Charlotte and Saturday in Orlando, but this is not a great spot for them. Miami is coming off a horrible offensive showing and loss in Dallas and will look to bounce back with a big home win Monday. Miami has been remarkable off a loss recently with a 28-7 SU run, +7.2PPG. The Heat were 25-7 SU last year at home with an average winning margin of +9.3PPG which was the third best differential in the NBA. The Heat have covered four straight at home as a favorite while Thunder 1-5 ATS last six on the road against a team with a winning record.

ASA top play on 10* Denver Nuggets –4.5 over Phoenix Suns, 9 PM ET - Love the scheduling dynamics to play on Denver here and against Phoenix. The Suns have gotten off to a fantastic start this season at 4-1 and have picked up where they left off last season in the Bubble with an 8-0 run. But this is not an ideal situation for them as they played last night and are playing their 3rd game in four days. Not to mention they are playing in the higher altitude of Denver tonight which is never a good thing for unrested teams. The Nuggets meanwhile are home, rested AND coming off a loss in their previous game. Denver is off to a very disappointing 1-3 start this season, 2 of those losses coming at home. The Nuggets are 65-20 SU their last 85 home games with an average margin of victory of +8PPG. When facing an opponent that is unrested the Nuggets are 28-15 SU their last 43. Off a loss Denver is 44-28 their last 72 games. Denver has beaten this Suns team 5 straight and make it six in a row here.

ASA top play on 10* Over 231.5 Chicago Bulls @ Milwaukee Bucks, 8 PM ET - Yes, the number on this game is extremely high compared to an average NBA game but these two teams don’t play at an average pace. The Bulls are the 2nd fastest paced team in the NBA at 108.4 possessions per game. The Bucks prefer to play uptempo also with the 9th fastest pace in the league at 103.4 possessions per game. Milwaukee is the second highest scoring team in the league at 124.2PPG while Chicago is 12th at 113.3PPG. The Bulls have been especially bad defensively allowing 123PPG which is 28th in the NBA. The Bucks haven’t been good on that end of the floor ranking 17th in points allowed per game at 113.4PPG. Against a similar team to the Bulls, Golden State, the Bucks put up 138 points. The Bulls are coming off a 263-point total with Washington last night and this game could get to a number in the 240’s rather easily. Bucks 4-1 Over their last five games on 1 day rest. Bulls 4-0 Over on no rest. Bet Over here.

ASA Play on: UNDER 219 Phoenix Suns @ Utah Jazz, 9 PM ET - We love the two young rising SUPERSTARS in this game with Devin Booker of Phoenix and Donovan Mitchell of Utah. The Suns made some offseason moves in bringing in vets Chris Paul and Jae Crowder who gives them toughness and a defensive mindset. It’s showed early on with Phoenix going Under in all four games this season. The Suns are 2nd in defensive efficiency this season allowing just .992PPP (last year they were 17th). Phoenix is also one of the slowest paced teams in the NBA this year ranking 28th. The Jazz can play some defense too ranking 13th in DEFF which is where they ranked last season. Utah is also the 21st slowest paced team in the league this season at 100.6 possessions per game. The most points scored in a Suns game this year was 216. They have allowed 106 or less in all four games. The Jazz played one higher scoring game against Portland but the Blazers like to play fast, ranking 5th in pace. Both teams are top 8 in points allowed per game this year Under 109. Both are also in the bottom half of the league in 2pt FG% and 3pt %. Bet Under

ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets -6.5 over Atlanta Hawks, 7:30PM ET We like to bet on elite teams off a bad loss which is the case in this setting Wednesday as Brooklyn is off a pair of losses and face an unbeaten Hawks team. That 3-0 Atlanta record has kept this line in check, and we will take advantage of a soft number here. The Nets lost in Charlotte two games ago then rested Kyrie and KD in an OT loss to Memphis. The Nets with their pair of “mega-stars” are a team capable of flipping the switch on any given night and in their first two games when motivated they blew out Golden State and Boston. As we mentioned, Atlanta has gotten off to that perfect 3-0 start, but the wins have come against Detroit, Chicago and Memphis who have a combined 2-9 SU record. Yes, the Hawks have improved their roster, but this is still a team that had a negative road differential of minus-13.4PPG during the regulars season a year ago, which was the worst number in the NBA. Brooklyn gets an easy double-digit win here.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 223 Milwaukee Bucks @ Miami Heat, 7:30 PM ET - The Bucks were bounced from the Playoffs last season by this Heat team so expect some high emotions in this early season showdown. The recipe the Heat used to beat the Bucks was defense, defense and more defense. If you eliminate the one overtime period they played, Miami held the Bucks to 104PPG in their 5-game playoff series which is 15 points less than their season average. The Heat were able to dictate pace and they prefer a slow tempo (24th in the NBA a year ago in pace). These were also two of the top nine teams in the league in defensive efficiency a year ago so don’t expect many easy opportunities here. Milwaukee just gave up 130 points to the Knicks and will make defense a priority in this contest. The Under is 9-4 the L13 meetings. The bet here is UNDER

ASA top play on 10* Denver Nuggets -7.5 over Houston Rockets, 9 PM ET - We think the oddsmakers had the correct number when they opened the Nuggets minus 9 here but since public money has forced the line down to the current number. At the end of last season, the Denver Nuggets were being talked about as possible title contenders with Jokic and Murray playing at a very high level. The Nuggets have gotten off to an 0-2 start with an OT loss to Sacramento and then a beatdown by the Clippers who were playing with revenge from last season’s playoffs. Denver was 26-11 SU at home last season before Covid hit with an average point differential of +4.2PPG. This is not the same Houston Rockets team we saw last year. James Harden is back, but for how long? Houston’s next three best players are not on this current trip as Wall, Cousins and Gordon are home in Covid protocols. The Rockets played well in the opener against Portland but are in a bad spot here. The home team has won four straight meetings in this series by 7 or more points. Denver was 23-13 SU off a loss last season and at 0-2 they’ll play with a little more motivation here. Lay it.

ASA top play on 10* New Orleans Pelicans -5 over San Antonio Spurs, Sunday 7 PM ET - Scheduling favors the Pelicans here as the Spurs are off a game last night with the Raptors while the Pels were home resting. San Antonio has jumped out to a 2-0 start but now face a Pelicans team off a loss in Miami and rested. The Spurs are 9-13 SU their last 22 when playing without rest. You would think the storied franchise of San Antonio would thrive as an underdog but that is not the case. Since 2018 the Spurs are 25-27-1 ATS as a dog and they’ve lost those games by an average of -7.8PPG. New Orleans is an up-and-comer in the West and have several pieces in place to make a strong run at a playoff berth. It starts with Zion Williamson who was on restricted minutes last year but is a full go this season. Add in All-Star Ingram, two great perimeter defensive guards in Bledsoe and Ball and a rim protector in Adams and you have a solid foundation. The play here is New Orleans minus the points.

ASA top play on 10*: Indiana Pacers -4.5 over Chicago Bulls, 8PM ET The Pacers have enough talent on their roster to be a threat in the East this season, especially with Oladipo back to full strength. The Pacers were just a -7.5-point favorite at home over the Knicks who aren’t much worse than this Bulls team and Indy beat New York by 14. The Bulls lost their season opener to the Hawks by 20, who expect to be better this season, but still aren’t at the Pacers level. Last season the Bulls were 27th in offensive efficiency averaging just 1.067 points per possession while Indiana was 19th at 1.100PPP. Chicago was in the top half of the league in defensive efficiency last season ranking 12th but Indiana was even better yet at 6th. Chicago had a negative point differential of -3.1PPG overall last season which was one of the 8 worst numbers in the league. Indiana beat the Bulls 4 times last season, all by more than this spread and three of which were by 9+ points. Lay the short number with the Pacers.

ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets -2.5 over Boston Celtics, Friday 5PM ET Let’s be up front on this. Our computer analytics don’t have a lot of data on this game considering Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant are taking the court together for just the second time this season. We can still accurately predict this game based on both teams’ openers though. With 30+ years’ experience handicapping the NBA we know a good team when we see one. In fact, we predicted the Nets to win it all in 2021. The young Nets played extremely well in the Bubble last season with several breakout players stepping up into bigger roles. Even without Durant and Kyrie this team was going to be a playoff team this season. Brooklyn beat this same Celtics team twice last year without KD or Kyrie. Brooklyn had 20 turnovers in their games against Golden State and still won by 26-points. We expect them to clean that part of their game up here against a Celtics team they would love to send a message to early in the season. Boston is off a HUGE win over the Bucks with Tatum banking in a 3-pointer with .04 seconds left in the game. The Celtics have depth concerns already and will be without Kemba Walker here. Last season the Nets were 15-21 SU on the road with an average road differential of minus -2.9PPG (again without KD, Kyrie). This game will have a little extra meaning for Kyrie (former Celtic) and the Nets who are considered the Celtics “little brother” in the East. The oddsmaker clearly have bought into the Nets as this line is nearly the same as the Bucks number in their first game against Boston.

ASA NBA top play on 10* UNDER 220.5 LA Clippers vs. LA Lakers, 10 PM ET - If you are any kind of a basketball fan you shouldn’t need a history lesson on these two teams, so we’ll keep it short. These two Los Angeles rivals don’t like each other and will again be the two contenders to come out of the West. Both made significant changes in the offseason which included Clippers head coach Doc Rivers getting the boot. The Lakers lost several key assets in Rondo, Howard, McGee and Avery Bradley but brought in Schroder, Marc Gasol, Wes Matthews and Montrezl Harrell. As long as the Lakers have LeBron and AD though it doesn’t matter who else is on the roster. The Clippers had some turnover too and brought in Serge Ibaka, Luke Kennard and Nicolas Batum. The Clippers will go as far as Kawhi Leonard and Paul George can take them. Defense is the name of the game here as both teams finished the regular season in the top five in defensive efficiency ratings as the Clippers allowed 1.077-points per possession while the Lakers gave up 1.076PPP. The number set on this game by Vegas reflects what teams were scoring at the end of the regular season and the playoffs last season in the Bubble games. Shooting and scoring was up late in the season as the smaller confines and no crowds made for better shooting sightlines. In the four meetings between these two teams last year, they combined for total points of 204 (in Bubble), 215, 217 and 214, all of which stayed Under the total. Based on our math model we have 216 total points being scored in this one. BET UNDER.

ASA top play 10* on: UNDER 216.5 Miami Heat vs LA Lakers, Friday 9 PM ET

We are betting this game is similar to the last two games in this series which have slowed down dramatically with shooting percentages dropping. In the last game these two teams combined for 154 total field goal attempts and shot a combined 43% which resulted in 198 total points. In the previous game the end result was 219 total points but the 159 FG attempts were lower than Games 1 & 2 which had 173 and 168. Let’s not forget these two teams ranked 3rd and 11th in defensive efficiency rating in the regular season and both have similar numbers in the post season. Both teams are also playing slower than their regular season pace of play. With this being a potential elimination game, I expect a very deliberate game with high intensity on the defensive end of the floor. With the added pressure shots won’t fall as easily in this game. Bet Under

ASA top play 10* on: Miami Heat +7.5 over LA Lakers, 9PM ET

The Heat got back into this series with a win in Game 3 and we feel that confidence carries over to another extremely competitive game here. The Heat got a monster game out of Jimmy Butler who scored 40-points, grabbed 11 rebounds, and handed out 13 assists. Another key factor to the wins was the balanced scoring by the entire Heat team, which has been a staple in this postseason. Miami had five players score in double-digits including Kelly Olynyk (17) who has given them another viable scoring option. If we use the full season as a baseline, we know the Lakers were a below average 3-point shooting team (ranked 21st) at 35%. In Game 3 we saw the Lakers hit just 33% of their 3-point attempts and shoot a more average overall 43% from the field. That was a better indicator of what they should shoot, and it resulted in a much closer game with the Heat making more plays down the stretch. The Lakers are not a great team as a favorite in this price range at 6-4 ATS nor is their 14-8 SU record off a loss overwhelming. In fact, the Lakers average win margin off a loss this season is just +2.6PPG which isn’t enough to get a cover in this game. The Heat may get some help and add to their depth with Bam Adebayo or Dragic back for this game. Both are listed as questionable, but it sounds likely they’ll have Bam. There is a reason that Vegas has dropped this line 2-points compared to the last game and yet money and tickets are coming in on L.A. Bet the Heat in a close win or loss.

ASA top play 10* on: OVER 219.5 Miami Heat vs. LA Lakers Game 3 Sunday - The Heat had a horrible shooting night in Game 1 which resulted in just 98-points. In Game 2 they bounced back and hit 51% overall from the field and made 11 of 27 from beyond the arc. Those were a drastic improvement over Game 1’s numbers of 43% and 31% and helped the Heat score 114-points against Los Angeles. Miami has the 4th best offensive efficiency numbers in the post-season averaging 1.143 points per possession which is nearly identical to their regular season PPP when they averaged 112PPG. Defensively the Heat were the 11th best defensive efficiency team in the NBA allowing 1.097PPP but in the Playoffs that number has risen to 1.115PPP. In essence, the Heat are scoring about the same as in the regular season but allowing more points per game in the Playoffs. Even without Dragic and Adebayo they still managed 114 in Game 2 and if we get a similar scoring output today this game goes Over easily. We haven’t forgotten about the Lakers who have put up 116 and 124 points in the first two games. In Game 1 they could have easily put up 130 had they wanted to but the game was out of reach early so they coasted down the stretch. The Lakers have shot 45% and 51% in the two games with Anthony Davis nearly setting a Playoff record in shooting percentage by hitting 15 of 20 from the field. The Heat don’t have an answer for the Finals MVP as Davis is an impossible matchup for them without Adebayo. The Lakers have the 2nd best offensive efficiency numbers of all Playoff teams as they average 1.170 points per possession and 98 possessions per game which is 7th highest. The pace of play numbers, offensive and defensive efficiency numbers suggest this will be a slightly higher scoring game than a normal NBA contest which was around 223PPG during the regular season. Our Model predicts 230 Total points and we couldn’t agree more with it!