Sports Picks & Predictions

ASA top play on 10* Atlanta Hawks -4 over Boston Celtics, 7:40 PM ET - At first glance it looks like it would be hard to bet against the Celtics who are on 7-0 ATS streak but all streaks come to an end. Atlanta is 2-6 ATS their last 8 games – but the 6 spread losses came against some of the league's best teams. @Denver, @Utah, @Golden State, @ Phoenix, Utah and @ Brooklyn. Atlanta came home off that tough West coast trip and drubbed the Bucks by 20 and the Magic by 18 at home. The venue has a lot to do with this wager. The Hawks have the 4th best average point differential at home of +11.9PPG, with a 5-1 record. Last year the Hawks were 25-11 SU at home +6.3PPG. They had the 6th best offensive efficiency numbers at home (1.173PPP) and 13th best home defensive efficiency (1.109PPP). Boston 5-4 SU away this season but were 15-21 SU away from home a year ago with a negative differential of -0.1PPG. The Hawks have covered 23 of their last 27 home games as a favorite and the home team has covered 5 of the last 7 in this series.

ASA top play on 10* NY Knicks -3 over Indiana Pacers, 7:40 PM ET - This sets up nicely for a bet on the Knicks as they are off a disappointing loss at Charlotte in which they led big but blew it late for an 8-point loss. That was Friday night so they are well rested going into this home game. Indiana on the other hand is in a tough scheduling situation as they played 4 west coast games, came home, got a big win over Philadelphia and now go back on the road to face the Knicks. New York has covered 6 of their last eight when playing on 2 days rest and have covered 13 of the last 19 meetings with the Pacers in the Big Apple. We like the small home favorite here in New York to get back on track with a solid home win.

ASA top play on 10* Portland Trailblazers -6.5 over Houston Rockets, 8 PM ET - Let’s get this out of the way immediately, the Blazers haven’t won a road game this season 0-6. But the young Rockets have just one win on the season with a 1-10 SU record. Houston has the 5th worst average differential of minus -7.5PPG whereas Portland is +0.9PPG. Portland is far superior offensively with the 7th best offensive efficiency rating compared to the Rockets who rank 27th. Defensively these two teams are similar with Houston ranking 18th in defensive efficiency and Portland 23rd. The Blazers are off two tough road losses against a pair of the best teams in the West and step way down in talent here against the Rockets. Besides their lone home win of the season over a bad OKC team, the Rockets have lost every other home game by 8 or more points. Portland gets a big road win here.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 216 Indiana Pacers vs Utah Jazz 9 PM ET - The Pacers are in a really tough spot here after playing in Denver last night. It’s a small sample size but Indiana has played two games this season without rest and those two games both stayed below the number and averaged 192 total points. Last night the Pacers faced a Denver defense that is 2nd in the NBA in defensive efficiency and they managed just 98 points. Utah is the 5th best team in the league based on efficiency ratings. Utah has allowed 107 or less points in 7 of their last ten games. These two teams are 19th and 20th in pace of play so don’t expect them to play fast here. Scoring continues to be down this year as games are averaging just 214PPG and this total is higher than that. Indiana has scored 110 or less points in 8 of their last ten and the Under has cashed 4 straight on Pacer games, 6 of their last seven. Utah Under in 6 of their last 8. This game stays below the number.

ASA top play on 10* New York Knicks -3 over Milwaukee Bucks 7:30 PM ET - The Knicks benefit from rest while the Bucks are off a game last night in Philly and will be playing their 3rd game in four nights. The Bucks are shorthanded without Middleton and Lopez out of the lineup and the lack of rest is magnified here. Milwaukee is 4-6 SU on the season and not playing well right now with offensive and defensive efficiency ratings 18th or worse. In comparison, the Bucks were the #1 DEFF team a year ago and 6th in OEFF. New York is 3rd in offensive efficiency this season and have improved dramatically on that end of the court. The Bucks struggled to beat a shorthanded 76ers team on Tuesday night and now face a Knicks team that beat them by 15 points in Milwaukee on Nov 5th. Milwaukee is on a 0-4 ATS streak when playing without rest and New York has won 3 of the last four meetings. The bet here is the Knicks as a short favorite.

ASA top play on 10* Utah Jazz -7.5 over Atlanta Hawks, 9:10 PM ET - Atlanta is coming off a big game in Golden State last night while Utah is rested but off two straight losses. The Jazz beat the Hawks last week in Atlanta by 18-points but then lost in Miami and then suffered an embarrassing loss at Orlando. In their previous meeting the Jazz beat Atlanta handily without their best player Donovan Mitchell. Atlanta comes into this game playing the 2nd night of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in four nights. The Hawks are 6-10-1 ATS their last 17 games when playing without rest. The Jazz have the 3rd best overall Margin of Victory average this year at +9.1PPG, which improves to +13PPG at home. Given the scheduling we won’t be scared off by this number and will back the home team minus the points.

ASA top play on 10* Atlanta Hawks +3.5 over Golden State Warriors, 10 PM ET - The Warriors have the best record in the NBA at 8-1 SU while the Hawks are a disappointing 4-6 SU. A major factor in those results are the strength of schedule for both teams as the Warriors have played the 28th easiest schedule, while the Hawks have faced the 8th toughest. In their last six games the Hawks have faced Phoenix, Utah, Brooklyn, Washington twice and Philadelphia. They are coming off a loss Saturday in Phoenix by 4 as a +3.5-point dog. In comparison the Warriors last four wins have come against Houston, New Orleans, Charlotte and OKC who are a combined 10-30 SU and none have a winning record. Despite the tough schedule the Hawks have a negative differential of -2.2PPG which will get us a cover here. Golden State is coming off a game last night and will be playing their 3rd in four days. Golden State was 6-9 ATS last season when playing without rest with a negative differential of -5PPG. Easy call with the Hawks here.

ASA top play on 10* Miami Heat -6 over Boston Celtics, 7:40 pm ET - Miami continues to play at a very high level while Boston is not. The Heat are 6-1 SU on the season with their lone loss coming in OT in Indiana. Miami has the highest average point differential in the NBA at +16.7PPG, are 2nd in both offensive and defensive efficiency and enjoy a scheduling advantage of being off last night. Boston on the other hand is 19th in defensive efficiency and 21st in offensive efficiency with the 21st worst average point differential in the league. The Celtics are also coming off a game last night. Boston has 3 wins on the season and two of those have come against Houston and Orlando who a combined 3-13 SU this season. The Heat are on a 5-0 spread run while Boston is 0-5 ATS their last five as a road dog. Back the better team, laying a marginal number at home against an over-rated opponent.

ASA top play on 10* Charlotte Hornets +6 over Golden State Warriors, 10:10 pm ET - If I gave you one guess who the best 3-point shooting team in the NBA is you’ll probably say Golden State. That’s a good guess, but the answer is actually the Charlotte Hornets at 41.1%. The Hornets are the highest scoring team in the league at 117.5PPG and look a little like the Warriors of old. Don’t get me wrong, the Warriors are still a upper echelon team but they’ve won a few close games with their of their wins this season coming by 8 points or less. Charlotte has quality wins this season against Portland and Brooklyn and are more than capable of winning this game outright. Last season these two teams played a pair of tight contests with the Warriors winning by 9 at home and Charlotte winning by 2 on their floor. The Hornets have covered 4 straight when coming off a loss and we’ll back them here with the points.

ASA top play on 10* Utah Jazz -9 over Sacramento King, 9:10 PM ET - At first glance you might think this is a high number but in reality, it’s low based on their meeting on October 22nd when the Jazz were favored by 6-points in Sacramento. Utah won that game by 9-points. Utah is 5-1 SU on the season with the 2nd best average margin of victory at +12.8PPG. The Kings are 3-3 SU with a negative differential of minus -2.8PPG. These two teams are similar in terms of offensive efficiency, but the Jazz are far superior in terms of defensive efficiency as they rank 3rd while the Kings are 25th. The Kings have matchup issues here as they’ve lost 5 straight to Utah with last year’s three wins coming by 22, 49 and 16-points. Lay the points with Utah.

ASA top play on 10* #542 Atlanta Hawks -5.5 over Washington Wizards, 7:40 PM ET - This is a quick rematch from last week when the Wizards beat the Hawks by 11-points in Washington. The interesting part of that games is the fact that the Hawks were -4-points IN Washington and are now laying -5.5-points here. The Hawks shot 55% in the game but the Wiz made 8 more free throws and 7 more 3-pointers. Atlanta then followed up that loss with a horrible showing against the Sixers and a 28-point loss. Back at home we like the Hawks to get a measure of revenge here against Washington. The Hawks are 2-0 at home this year with a 18-point and 26-point win. Atlanta was 25-11 SU last year at home with the 8th best average margin of victory at +6.3PPG. Washington is 17-22 SU their last 39 on the road. Expect a big game out of Trae Young and cast at home. Lay it!

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 215.5 Dallas Mavericks @ Denver Nuggets, 10:10 pm ET - Scoring in the NBA is down dramatically this season with games averaging just 217.2 total points per contest, down from 224 a year ago. The Unders have been cashing at a profitable 62% rate with games staying Under the totals by an average of -5.8PPG. The interesting part is that pace of play is up slightly at 100.5 possessions per game but offensive efficiency as a whole is down to 1.070-points per possession. Last season the NBA average for OEFF was 1.120PPP. A big reason why is the adjustment in the number of fouls being called (or not being called), particularly on jump shooters which has impacted the number of free throws teams are shooting this year. In any regard, this game features two teams that rank 18th or worse in pace of play, are 24th and 25th in offensive efficiency at 1.026PPP and rank 14th or better in defensive efficiency. The Mavericks have held 3 of four opponents to less than 100-points and are scoring just 102PPG themselves. The Nuggets have held two of four foes to under 100 and have scored less than 105 in 3 of four. With this number being set higher than the league average we like the value with UNDER!

ASA top play on 10* OVER 214 New York Knicks vs Chicago Bulls, 8:10 PM ET - The number set on this game is largely based on these two teams from a year ago but a lot has changed with both the Bulls and Knicks. New York brought in Kemba Walker and Evan Fournier to pair with Randle. The Bulls went out and signed Lonzo Ball and DeMar DeRozan giving them additional pieces to go with LaVine. The Knicks style of play is different this season too as they’ve attempted 46 3-pointers per game this season which is significantly higher than the 30 they averaged a year ago. The Knicks are also making their 3’s this season at 38% which is 8th best in the NBA. The Bulls are the #1 3-point shooting team in the league right now at 42.3%. Chicago has played in a couple low scoring games this year against the Pistons (who might be the worst team in the league) but will have to score here. Both clubs are in the top half of the league in offensive efficiency with the Knicks averaging 119PPG and the Bulls checking in at 108PPG. Scoring is down early in the season but this number is set lower than our math model suggests. BET OVER.

ASA top play on 10* Miami Heat +4.5 over Brooklyn Nets, 7:40 PM ET - This is a big game in the East between two teams that could contend at seasons end. Brooklyn is clearly led by the two-headed monster of Harden and Durant but they miss Kyrie and his playmaking ability. The Heat added Kyle Lowry in the offseason to pair with Jimmy Butler and Adebayo to get over the hump. Miami has gotten great play from Tyler Herro off the bench who gives them a legitimate scorer with the second unit. The Nets are 2-2 SU on the season and were just a -5.5-point favorite at home over Washington, who isn’t at the same level of this Heat team. Miami could easily be 3-0 this season as their lone loss came in OT at the Pacers. The Heat blew out the Bucks earlier this season while the Nets lost in Milwaukee. Brooklyn isn’t anything special as a home favorite with a 19-17 ATS record since the start of last season. Miami was a top 10 defensive team a year ago while Brooklyn was a bottom 10 team. Give me the dog and points here.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 229.5 Milwaukee Bucks @ Indiana Pacers, 7:10 PM ET - We get two of the faster paced teams in the NBA tonight with the Bucks who ranked 3rd in possessions per game a year ago and the Pacers who were 5th. Both teams were also top half of the NBA in offensive efficiency with the Bucks checking in with the 5th best OEFF numbers last season, Indiana was 14th. The Bucks have Totaled 230 or more points in all three games this season. Indiana played in two higher scoring games to start the season but then had a horrible shooting night against the Heat last time out with just 193 total points. The Pacers shot just 39% against the Heat which is well below their season average from a year ago of 47.5% which was 11th best in the NBA. Last year in three meetings these two teams combined for 275, 253 and 240 points. Bet OVER here.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 223 Milwaukee Bucks vs Miami Heat, 8:10 pm ET - We like the value in the number here and an OVER wager on these two Eastern Conference rivals. The Heat knocked the Bucks out of the playoffs two years ago, then the Bucks returned the favor last year on their Championship run. During the regular season a year ago these two teams met 3 times and all three finished with 227 or more points. The Over/Unders set on those games were 226.5 or higher so you can see the value we have here. An average NBA game last season finished with roughly 223 total points and this number is barely higher than that with two upper echelon teams in the East. The Bucks had the 5th best EFG% in the league last season, Miami was 14th. The Bucks were 5th in offensive efficiency last year, Miami was 19th. Both were top ten in defensive efficiency, but the Bucks struggled to defend the 3-point line with the 24th worst field goal percentage defense at 37.7%. Miami shot 35.6% from beyond the arc but expect that number to increase this season with the addition of Kyle Lowry who is off a 39.6% season. 6th man Tyler Herro has looked outstanding in the preseason, after a subpar season last year, and scored at will in the exhibition. Duncan Robinson was 5th in 3-pointers made a season ago. The Bucks were 4th in fast break points scored last year along with 10th in points in the paint, meaning they get easy opportunities. Milwaukee looked great in the opener against the Nets and it’s clear they plan to get 3’s up this season as they attempted 45 against Brooklyn. This all shapes up to be an above average score with more than 223 Total points.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 232.5 Sacramento Kings @ Portland Trailblazers, 10:10pm ET - Both these teams return nearly everyone from last years roster which means their won’t be a “breaking in” period with new players. The Kings return the blazing fast PG Fox who averaged over 25PPG and 7 assists per game a season ago. Second year player Haliburton (13PPG) is going to be a solid player for years to come, Hield is a proven scorer (career 40% 3-point shooter) and then they round out the roster with veterans Barnes and Harkless along with others. The Kings top ten in pace of play last year and 12th in offensive efficiency at 1.136-points per possession. Sacramento’s issues are on the defensive end of the court where they’ve been one of the worst in the league for several years. Last season the Kings were dead last in defensive efficiency ratings. Portland is eerily like the Kings when it comes to defense as they were 29th in DEFF allowing 1.160-PPP. Offensively they don’t play fast to score but are highly efficient, averaging 1.178-points per possession which ranked 2nd in the NBA. The Blazers “Big 3” of McCollum, Lillard and Nurkic can lead this team to the playoffs again in 2021 and we predict a fast start to the season. Last season in three head-to-head matchups these two scored 224, 258 and 242 total points. These two teams have combined for 234 or more points in 6 of their last eight meetings. The bet here is OVER!

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 222.5 Phoenix Suns vs Milwaukee Bucks Game 6 Tuesday 9 PM ET - Game 5 results have pushed this Total to the highest it’s been in the entire series so we will bet the added value and Under. These two teams shot ridiculously well in Game 5 as both team hit over 55% of their field goal attempts. Those numbers are much higher than league average of 46.6% and are not sustainable, especially in this elimination game setting. The pace of play numbers have been consistent the last two games with 175 and 174 field goal attempts which is slightly lower than league average. These two combined for 98-points in the paint in Game 5 which is also well above the league standards so don’t expect that to happen again here. In this pressure packed game both teams are going to value every possession and our computers suggest a much slower pace in Game 6. The Under is now 6-3 the last nine meetings between these two teams in Milwaukee and that trend continues here. BET UNDER!

ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns -3.5 over Milwaukee Bucks, Game 5 Saturday, 9:05 PM ET - I have to admit how hilarious the national media is and how they are so quick to overreact to the most recent or current events. After winning Games 1 and 2 of the series the pundits couldn’t stop praising the Suns and anointing them as the next NBA Champion. Those same “experts” are now saying the Bucks are two games away from winning the Finals. This series is 2-2 with the home team winning all four games and we are betting that trend continues here. The Suns were dominating at home this season with a 27-9 SU record and the 3rd best average margin of victory at +8.9PPG. Phoenix is 8-2 SU at home in the playoffs with an average differential of +9PPG. Phoenix is 17-5 AT their last 22 home games versus quality teams or teams with a winning record. The Suns have also covered 10 of their last fourteen games as a favorite. Phoenix is 9-2 SU at home when coming off a loss and we predict a bounce back here by the home team.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 220.5 Phoenix Suns vs Milwaukee Bucks, 9 PM ET Game 4 - We like UNDER again in Game 4 and expect a lower scoring game when these two teams take the floor Wednesday night. We’ve seen a steady decline the scoring in the three games thus far as they scored 223 and 226 total points in the first two games then 220 in Game 3. Most importantly we’ve seen a decline in field goal attempts and a slower pace. In Game 1 these two attempted 176 combined shots, in Game 2 it was 181 then in Game 3 it was the lowest number yet with 173 field goal attempts. As this series goes on we expect the pressure to grow and less shots to go in. Both teams shot 48% in Game 3 but that percentage isn’t sustainable given both teams defenses. Both teams have been outstanding defensively in the playoffs allowing just 1.090-points per possession (Suns) and 1.071PPP (Bucks). Those numbers are drastically better than the season PPP they allowed during the regular season. Suns are 4-1 Under their last five coming off a loss, while the Bucks are 7-3-1 Under their last eleven home games. With more money and tickets coming in on the Over the line has not fluctuated and even ticked down a little. That’s an indication to bet UNDER!

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 222 Phoenix Suns @ Milwaukee Bucks, Game 3 Sunday - The first two games crept Over the number but we expect a lower scoring game here. In fact, we lost our play on the Under in Game 2 but we had a great opportunity to win as a few meaningless fouls late pushed it Over the number. Both teams have shot relatively well in both games and the Suns were ridiculously hot in Game 2 from beyond the arc making 20 3-pointers. We do expect the Bucks to shoot better at home but not well enough to push this game Over the number. Giannis shredded the Suns on the interior last game with 42-points but that number isn’t sustainable either. These two teams have the best defensive efficiency numbers in the Playoffs allowing just 1.073PPP (Bucks) and 1.081PPP (Suns). Those numbers are dramatically lower than the season averages both allowed during the regular season. Milwaukee is playing significantly slower in the post-season than they did in the regular season with 5-less possessions per game in the Playoffs. The Suns were the 5th slowest paced team in the NBA during the regular season and are averaging that same pace in the Playoffs. Phoenix played a couple deliberate or slower paced games on the road against the Clippers which resulted with 164 and 198 total points. With both of the games thus far going Over the number it’s strange the oddsmakers didn’t set this number higher than this which means they want us to bet Over. We won’t bite and like UNDER.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 220.5 Milwaukee Bucks vs Phoenix Suns, Game 2 Thursday 9 PM ET - We got a win with the Over in Game 1 of this series but now we feel these two teams stay Under with a much lower scoring game. These two combined for 223 Total points in Game 1 but it took 45% shooting by the Bucks and 16 of 36 3-point shooting or 44%. The Bucks 3-point shooting was well above their season average of 38.9%. Phoenix also had a hot shooting night by hitting 47% overall from the field and 32% from beyond the Arc. The Suns were also near perfect from the free throw line at 25 of 26. In Game 2 we expect a return to norm for both teams with each team's defenses stepping up. These two teams combined for just 176 field goal attempts in the opener which is around league average but again they had better than normal shooting nights. These two teams are ranked first and second in defensive efficiency in the Playoffs allowing less than 1.080-points per possesion. The betting indicators clearly support the Under here too as more money has flowed in on the Over, yet the line has dipped from 221.5 to 219.5 which tells us volumes. We expect a slightly slower pace, not as good of a shooting night and both defenses to improve from Game 1. The bet here is UNDER!

ASA top play on 10* OVER 218.5 Milwaukee Bucks vs Phoenix Suns, Game 1 Tuesday 9 PM ET - We are betting this unfamiliar territory for both teams is going to start fast and have some high energy throughout which is going to lead to a faster paced game and higher scoring output. Our computer simulator has played this matchup 10,000 times and the total projections it is producing is 222.3. These two teams were two of the highest points per possession offenses in the NBA ranking 5th and 6th in offensive efficiency. Playoff scoring is down for both teams but that is expected given the circumstances. The value in the number is obvious as these two teams played twice in the regular season and Vegas set Totals of 229 and 232. Thus far in the playoffs the Bucks and their opponents have had a Total of 219 or less just two times out of seventeen games. The Suns had a few low scoring games in their most recent series with the Clippers but even half of those games finished with more points than tonight’s Total and all of their games against Denver resulted in more than 218 total points. The Bucks screen-n-roll defense has been atrocious, and the Suns have been one of the best mid-range or pull-up shooting team in the playoffs. When these same two teams met in the regular season, they combined for 249 and 232 points (in regulation). Both have strong Over support in this scenario, and we see Game 1 ending with a higher total than projected.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 217.5 Milwaukee Bucks @ Atlanta Hawks, Saturday 8:30 PM ET - We are betting the defenses for both teams rise to the occasion and expect both offenses to struggle here. The Bucks put together a masterful performance without Giannis in the last game and got huge offensive contributions from Brook Lopez (14 of 18 shooting) with 33-points and 22-points from Bobby Portis Jr. Based on year long statistics those numbers will be extremely hard to maintain as both players averaged under 13PPG on the season. In fact, both teams shot well in the last game at 46% for the Hawks and 51% for the Bucks. We are betting this game reverts back to the form we saw in the previous two games played in Atlanta which ended with 198 and 215 total points. Atlanta on 4-0 Under run at home, Bucks Under 9-2-1 their last 12 road games against teams with a winning home record. Even if both teams get their Superstars back in the lineup tonight, neither will be close to 100%. This potential elimination game will be a tight defensive affair, bet UNDER.

ASA top play on 10* Milwaukee Bucks -2.5 over Atlanta Hawks, Thurs July 1st 8:30 PM ET - The line on this game obviously tells us who Vegas wants everyone to bet and that’s the underdog Hawks, but we won’t bite. Milwaukee loses 2-time MVP Giannis to a knee injury in the last game, yet the Bucks are still favored at home. We’ve seen this time and time again and most recently in the last game of this series, when a team loses a Super Star, a role player steps up. In Game 4 the Hawks were without Trae Young and Lou Williams stepped up for the injured star with 21-points on 7 of 9 shooting along with dishing out 8-assists. The Bucks still have capable weapons in Jrue Holliday and Khris Middleton and in this situation we expect one of them to step up in the absence of Giannis and have a big game. The Bucks got off to a slow start again in Game 4 but expect them to play much better at home were they were 26-10 SU during the regular season with a +7.7PPG differential. In the playoffs the Bucks have the 4th best overall average point differential at +5.5PPG and they have won 12 of 18 home games this season when coming off a loss. The contrarian bet here is to take the Bucks.

ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns +1 over LA Clippers Game 6 Wednesday - The Clippers got a much-needed win at home in Game 5 but it came at a herculean price as starters logged exhausting minutes which makes them a “play against” here. Paul George put up a huge 41-point night, but the minutes are starting to add up. George has played more minutes than anyone in the post season and it’s not even close. Marcus Morris Sr. had a great game last time out but at times looked like he could barely job back defensively. The Clippers as a whole shot 55% which is well above their season average of 48.2%. As a team the Suns shot 45% in the last game after shooting just 39% and 36% in the previous two games. Phoenix opened this series with 55% and 50% games. Phoenix is 18-7 SU off a loss this season and had the 8th best average road +/- in the NBA at +2.6PPG. Granted, the Clippers were outstanding at home this season but that was with Leonard in the lineup for a majority of those games. Our numbers say Phoenix is the best team in the West and they’ll get this road win in Game 6.

ASA top play on 10* Under 219 Milwaukee Bucks at Atlanta Hawks, Game 4 Tuesday - Trae Young’s availability for tonight’s game is in question as he has a bone bruise on his ankle. We are basing this wager on him playing in this game but certainly not being 100%. Young is averaging 25PPG on the season and has 5 playoff games where he has scored 34+ points. Atlanta relies heavily on his scoring and if he’s not at full strength the Hawks will have a hard time putting up points here. The first game of this series ended with 229 total points, but it took 197 field goal attempts to get to that number. In Game 2 the number of field goal attempts dropped to 178 and 216 total points, then in Game 3 the teams combined for 172 FGA’s and just 215-points. Both teams have seen a decline in their overall shooting percentages in this series which ties into lower offensive efficiency ratings too. The Bucks and Hawks are both averaging less points per possession in the playoffs than they did in the regular season and Milwaukee’s defense has played at a high level. The Bucks are allowing just 1.044-points per possession in the playoffs which is significantly lower than their season PPP allowed of 1.107. These two teams have stayed Under in four straight meetings in Atlanta and 4 of the last five overall. The oddsmakers have adjusted this number down but they haven’t moved it enough. Bet UNDER.

ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns -5 over LA Clippers, Game 5 Monday - We are betting this series ends tonight and the Suns advance to the NBA Finals. The Clippers don’t have enough weapons without Leonard and its obvious to see they are wearing down. Neither team shot well in the last game but the Suns have more options than the Clippers do and we expect them to bounce back at home with a much better shooting night. L.A. has some solid numbers when playing off a loss this season but that was with Kawhi in the lineup. Phoenix is 7-1 ATS when coming off a win and have won 10 of their last eleven games overall. 5 of the Suns six home wins in the playoffs have all come by more than today’s spread and our models predict a double-digit win here.

ASA top play on 10* Atlanta Hawks +4.5 over Milwaukee Bucks Game 3 Sunday 8:35 PM ET - We are not going to overreact to the Bucks blowout win in Game 2 and get suckered into betting a bad number in Game 3. The Bucks were just favored by 8-points at home in a must win situation and are now laying 4.5-points on the road? The natural swing here should have this game as a pick’em. Not only that, but the line on this game also opened with Milwaukee as a 5-point favorite and a large volume of tickets have come in on the Bucks yet the line dropped. The Bucks have lost three road playoff games this postseason and the Hawks have won 14 of their last sixteen at home, which included a win over this Bucks team in the regular season. Atlanta doesn’t have great year long statistics as they suffered from a slow start, yet they still have the 8th best home court point differential at +6.3PPG. In the end this comes down to grabbing the extra value with Atlanta at home.

ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns -110 over LA Clippers Game 4 Saturday - The Clippers got a much-needed win at home in Game 3 yet the oddsmakers haven’t adjusted this line and made them favorites at home. That tells us something and we’ll put our money on the side Vegas doesn’t want us to be on. Phoenix had a horrible shooting night in Game 3 with Chris Paul and Devin Booker combining to go 10 of 40 so expect both to return to more normal averages here. As a team the Suns shot just 39% in the last game after shooting 55% and 50% in the first two games of the series. Phoenix was 18-6 SU off a loss this season and had the 8th best average road +/- in the NBA at +2.6PPG. Granted, the Clippers were outstanding at home this season but that was with Leonard in the lineup for a majority of those games. Our numbers say Phoenix is the best team in the West and they’ll get this road win in Game 4.

ASA top play on 10* Milwaukee Bucks -7.5 over Atlanta Hawks, Game 2 8:35 PM ET Friday - This is basically the elimination game of this series as the Bucks can’t afford to go down 0-2 to start the Eastern Conference finals. I’ve said it before and will say it again, Coach Budenholzer for Milwaukee needs to be fired ASAP as his team continually underperforms despite the talent advantage. Even with Bud we like the Bucks to get this home win by a substantial margin. After watching film, the Bucks will make adjustments and switch screens involving Trae Young and not allow him to get free for easy floaters in the lane (48-points on 17 of 34 shooting in Game 1). Young was a big reason why the Hawks shot 49% for the game which will be tough to duplicate against the Bucks 5th best field goal percentage defense. Milwaukee had an off-shooting night by hitting just 8 of 36 three-pointers which is drastically lower than their regular season average of 38.9% (5th best in NBA). We are betting Khris Middleton will have a much better shooting night than his 0-9 performance in the opener. Milwaukee is 31-11 SU at home this season with a +/- of +8.1PPG. The bet is the Bucks to bounce back here with a double-digit win.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 221 Phoenix Suns @ L.A. Clippers, Game 3 Thursday 9 PM ET - Game 1 finished with 234 total points which forced the oddsmakers to adjust the Total up from 220 in the opener to 224 in Game 2. Now in Game 3 we are back in the 220 range. In Game 1 these two teams combined for just 177 field goal attempts which is right around league average, so the pace of play was not the driving force for the higher score. Exceptional shooting impacted this outcome and forced the game Over the Total. The Suns hit 55% of their field goal attempts and made 13 of 32 3-pointers or 41%. Phoenix shot 49% on the season and 37.8% from beyond the arc, both lower than what they shot in Game 1. The Suns weren’t the only team shooting well in G1 as the Clippers made 45% of their FGA’s and hit 20 of 47 3’s or 43%. The Clippers attempted 47 3-pointers which is 12 more than they averaged during the regular season. In Game two we had a much slower tempo than Game 1 as these two teams attempted just 160 total field goal attempts. The Suns shot well again at 50% overall while the Clippers hit 45%. In Game 2 these two clubs combined for less than 51-points in three of the four quarters. As we mentioned in our previous analysis. The three regular season meetings between these two teams finished with 210, 216 and 219 Total points and Game 2 finished with 207. We see another defensive struggle with a low scoring affair.

ASA top play on 10* Milwaukee Bucks -7.5 over Atlanta Hawks, Game 1 Wednesday 8:35 PM ET - We will start by saying this, the Hawks are playing outstanding right now and head coach Nate McMillan has guided this team to a level of play many didn’t think possible. But the situation warrants a bet on the Bucks who are more rested, been here before and have the two best players on the floor in Giannis and Middleton. Trae Young has been great but he’s not on that level yet and also is a little banged up with a bad shoulder. The Hawks are also concerned with Bogdanovic who played just 21 minutes and scored 4-points in their Game 7 win over Philly. Atlanta is coming off two very physically demanding series against the Knicks and 76ers and will suffer a letdown here. Milwaukee just beat the best team in the East in Brooklyn and have a roster than can win it all this season. The Bucks have the best offense in the NBA and currently the #1 ranked defensive efficiency number in the playoffs allowing just 1.032-points per possession. We know the Bucks Achilles-heel is their 3-point defense which ranks near the bottom of the NBA, but the Hawks shoot 37.3% from beyond the arc which ranks them 12th. Milwaukee was 26-10 SU at home this season with the 5th best average point differential of +7.7PPG and they’ve gone 5-0 at home in the playoffs at +13PPG. The future games of this series may be much closer but we expect a blowout in Game 1 by the Bucks

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 224 LA Clippers @ Phoenix Suns, Game 2 Tuesday 9 PM ET - Game 1 finished with 234 total points which has forced the oddsmakers to adjust this number up from the 220 it was in the opener. That added value has us on the Under here. In Game 1 these two teams combined for just 177 field goal attempts which is right around league average, so the pace of play was not the driving force for the higher score. Exceptional shooting impacted this outcome and forced the game Over the Total. The Suns hit 55% of their field goal attempts and made 13 of 32 3-pointers or 41%. Phoenix shot 49% on the season and 37.8% from beyond the arc, both lower than what they shot in Game 1. The hype of this game will wear off and expect the young Suns to return to normal here. The Suns weren’t the only team shooting well in G1 as the Clippers made 45% of their FGA’s and hit 20 of 47 3’s or 43%. The Clippers attempted 47 3-pointers which is 12 more than they averaged during the regular season. The three regular season meetings between these two teams finished with 210, 216 and 219 Total points and this game is going to stay right around that average or 215 total points.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 216 Atlanta Hawks vs Philadelphia 76ers, 8PM ET Sunday - The numbers suggest this is going to be a tightly contested game between two young teams that are new to this type of a high-pressure situation. The added weight of a Game 7 will lead to a lower scoring game and defensive grinder. The last three games in this series have resulted Unders and 203, 215 and 103 total points being scored. Shooting percentages for both teams have trended down as the series has gone on with the most recent game ending with both teams shooting just 41% from the field. The Hawks have stayed Under in 5 of their last six road games against quality teams such as Philly while Philly on 4-1 Under streak when favored. The Sixers have the 4th best defensive efficiency numbers in the playoffs as they allow just 1.088-points per possession. Atlanta is 5th in DEFF, giving up just 1.096PPP. The 76ers are averaging 1.137PPP in this series, which is right around their season average, but the Hawks are well below their season average at 1.087PPP. Both teams have played well below their season averages in pace of play in this series and if that continues today, we cash an easy Under.

ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets -120 over Milwaukee Bucks, 8:30 PM ET - Historically, home teams in Game 7’s dominate to the tune of 80% win rates and there is no reason to doubt that logic here. Brooklyn enjoyed one of the best home courts in the NBA this season with a 34-8 SU record despite not having parts of the “Big 3” available most nights. The Nets will be without Kyrie here, but it doesn’t seem to matter as KD is the most dominant player in the league and is nearly unstoppable offensively. The Nets are on a fantastic 15-2 SU run at home and have covered 13 of those games. The Bucks Achilles heel defensively is their 3-point defense which ranks as one of the worst in the league. The Nets have taken advantage at home of where they shoot nearly 40% from beyond the arc which is one of the better numbers in the NBA. The Bucks got a HUGE offensive performance from Middleton (38-pts) in their Game 6 win but the rest of the Bucks were a dismal 2 for 25 from beyond the 3-point line. We are betting the Bucks implode late in this game and will revert back to iso-ball which doesn’t work for them. Not too mention poor free throw shooting in a close game. The bet here is on the best player in the NBA and the Nets.

ASA top play on 10* Utah Jazz money line -125 over LA Clippers, 10 PM ET – Game 6 Friday - There is a reason the Jazz are favored on the road in this possible elimination game. We won’t be deterred by our last game loss with the Jazz and will come right back with a bet on them here. Leonard is out again here so the Clippers will have to find a way to win again without their Superstar. In this series, the two wins by the Clippers at home were anchored by incredible games by Kawhi. Leonard scored 31 & 34 points in both wins and grabbed 19 total rebounds. In the losses he scored just 21 and 23-points. In Game 5 the Clippers got a HUGE game from Paul George who scored 37, grabbed 16 rebounds and handed out 5 assists. When Superstars are out of games the reserves typically step up in the next contest but then regress to the norm after that. Tonight, the Clippers will sorely miss Leonard’s 50% shooting in this series not to mention his defensive presence. Donovan Mitchell had scored 30 or more points in the first four games of this series and 37+ in three of the four before a dude in Game 5 of 21-points. Utah was one of the best team in the NBA all season long on the road with a 21-15 SU record at home in the regular season with a +5.3PPG differential (#1 in NBA). The Jazz are 16-7 SU off a loss this season and they will find a way to win this road game and force a Game 7.

ASA top play on 10* Philadelphia 76ers -7 over Atlanta Hawks, 7:30 PM ET – Game 5 Wednesday - The 76ers find themselves in a battle for the East from an unexpected round two opponent in the Hawks but tonight they flex their muscle in a convincing home win. In Game 4 the 76ers lost by just 3-points despite Joel Embiid going 4 for 20 from the field and 0-12 in the second half. So despite a horrible showing by Embiid the Sixers still had a chance to steal a road win in Atlanta. Philly is 16-9 SU off a loss this season and 12-2 SU, 11-2-1 ATS at home off a beat. Philadelphia has a +8.9 average point differential at home this season which is the second-best number in the NBA. When playing at home and coming off a loss the 76ers had an average winning margin of +14PPG in their last nine games in that situation during the regular season. The bet here is Philly in a double-digit home win.

ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets +4.5 over Milwaukee Bucks, Game 5 Tuesday 8:30 PM ET - This number is the second highest the Nets have been as a dog this season at home and even without Kyrie and Harden they are the bet here. KD can obviously carry a team himself and back at home we expect the reserves to step up. Let’s not forget Joe Harris was bordering an All-Star level of play before the Super Star additions and he’s more than capable of filling it up from beyond the Arc. Let’s face it, Brooklyn 33-8 SU at home this season and a majority of those wins came without one of the Big 3 playing. The Nets were 10-3 SU at home off a loss this season and they’ll find a way to keep this one close throughout.

ASA top play on 10* Utah Jazz +5 over LA Clippers, Game 4 Monday 10 PM ET - Before the playoffs started, we felt the Jazz were the best team in the West and our opinion hasn’t changed even though the Suns look outstanding. Utah had the most wins during the regular season at 52 and are 6-2 SU in the playoffs. Utah had a +9.2PPG differential (1st) overall and the best margin of victory on the road too at +5.3PPG. The Jazz ranked top seven in both road offensive and defensive efficiency. The Clippers are obviously a good team with star power in George and Leonard, but they haven’t been unbeatable at home with three losses in the opening round to Dallas. In Game 3 the Clippers shot well above their season averages at 56% overall and 53% from beyond the arc. Those numbers are significantly higher than their season averages of 48% and 41%. Not to mention the Jazz are the 2nd best field goal percentage defense in the NBA. The Clippers have just one cover in their last nine games when coming off a double-digit win while the Jazz are 16-5 SU off a loss, 8-4 on the road. Grab the points and the underdog here.

ASA top play on 10* Utah Jazz +4.5 over LA Clippers, Game 3 Saturday 8:25PM ET Yes, we are going to ignore the zig-zag theory here and bet the overall better team in the Jazz. Utah was the best team in the NBA all season long and have flown under the radar because of a late season injury to Donovan Mitchell but they are clearly in top form now. Speaking of Mitchell, the Clippers have no answer for him right now as he’s put up 45 and 37-points in the first two games of this series. The Clippers were built for a Championship, but they are missing a piece or two and the dynamic duo of Paul George and Kawhi Leonard aren’t enough. Utah is 35-6 SU on the road this season and had the best road point differential in the league at +5.3PPG, the 7th best offensive efficiency and the 6th best defensive efficiency numbers when away from home. Examining the previous meetings this season we see the Jazz have won and covered 4 of five and the lone loss was by 4-points. Let’s not forget the Clippers lost three home games in the last round to the Mavericks so they are not unbeatable on their home floor. Back the better team and the grab the points.

ASA top play on 10* Atlanta Hawks +1.5 over Philadelphia 76ers, Game 3 Friday 7:35 PM ET - The home crowd will be rocking in Atlanta tonight when the Hawks look to take a 2-1 lead in the series. Atlanta has been fantastic since head coach Nate McMillan took over with a 27-11 SU record and have improved in all areas of their game. The Hawks were 25-11 SU at home during the regular season with the 8th best average margin of victory at home of +6.3PPG. Atlanta has the 6th best offensive efficiency rating at home and the 13th best defensive efficiency. The 76ers defensive efficiency numbers have been good at home and on the road where they rank 3rd overall but offensively their road efficiency is 1.106-points per possession which ranks 19th. We don’t expect Seth Curry and Shake Milton having incredible shooting nights by coming to go 9 of 11 from beyond the 3-point line as they did at home in Game 2. The Hawks have covered 6 straight at home against the Sixers and we are betting it’s 7 in a row after tonight. 

ASA top play on 10* OVER 234 Brooklyn Nets @ Milwaukee Bucks Game 3 Thursday 7:30 PM ET - The Bucks have let their backers down in two different ways in this series by not being able to produce offensively. We are not about to support the Bucks here at home in this game but will try out luck on the Over again. Milwaukee has two straight abysmal shooting nights which clearly isn’t the norm for several reasons. First off, the Bucks were one of the best shooting teams all season long with the 3rd best overall FG percentage in the NBA and 5th best 3-points shooting. Secondly, the Nets have been a below average defensive team all season long ranking 22nd in overall defensive efficiency, 14th in 3-point defense and 7th in overall FG% D. The Bucks are a horrendous 14 of 57 from beyond the Arc in the series but we expect that to change back at home where the Bucks shot 39.8% on the season from the 3-point line. We know the Nets are going to score again as the Bucks don’t seem to have an answer for KD who has scored at will in both games thus far on 24 of 43 shooting and 51-points. Milwaukee was 29th in 3-point percentage defense this season so expect the Nets shooters to continue to get open looks. The Bucks average 120PPG at home this year and will have a much better offensive showing here. Bet OVER.

ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns -5.5 over Denver Nuggets, 9:30 PM ET - The Suns got a solid 17-point win in the opener and were the much better team on both ends of the floor. The Nuggets may have the best player on the floor in MVP Jokic, but the Suns depth and balance is the difference. Phoenix had four players score 20+ points in Game 1 with the team shooting over 54% from the field and 38% from beyond the Arc. Without Jamal Murray the Nuggets lack their best playmaker off the bounce and forces Denver to rely too heavily on Jokic. The longer, more athletic Ayton held Jokic to 22-points in the opener and defensively could be the difference in this series. Phoenix has covered 4 of their last five as a favorite and had the 4th best average home point differential in the league this season of +8.9PPG. The Nuggets second best scorer Porter Jr is listed as questionable tonight and not 100% which only magnifies Denver’s lack of scoring here. Lay the points in Game 2.

ASA top play on 10* Philadelphia 76ers -6 over Atlanta Hawks, 7:30 PM ET - Let’s not forget the 76ers were the best team in the East all season long and have a MVP level player in Joel Embiid and a Hall of Fame coach in Doc Rivers. Granted, Embiid isn’t 100% but he wasn’t in Game 1 either and he put up 39-points, 9 rebounds and 4 assists. Philadelphia is going to bounce back here against a young Atlanta team that will let down after their Game 1 win. Both teams shot extremely well in the opener, but the difference was the Hawks 20 made 3-pointers to the 76ers 10. Those numbers are startling considering both teams are top 10 in 3-point percentage defense and rank 11th and 12th in 3-point shooting offensively. The 76ers are 6th in points allowed per game this season and 4th in overall field goal percentage defense. Philadelphia was 2nd in the league in defensive efficiency this season while the Hawks were 21st. Atlanta does hold a slight edge offensively with the 8th best offense efficiency rating, but Philly is 13th. The Hawks were just +2-point dogs at New York which makes tonight’s line a bargain with a much better Sixers team that is off a loss. These teams met in late April in Philly with the 76ers dominating in a 44-point (no Trae Young) and 22-point (w/Trae Young) home wins. The 76ers had the second-best home point differential in the NBA this season at +8.9PPG and were 29-7 SU on their home court this season. Philly was 14-9-1 ATS off a loss this season at 10-2-1 ATS at home off a beat. In their last eleven home games when coming off a loss the 76ers are 10-1 SU with an average margin of victory of 13PPG. This game has all the makings of a pointspread blowout.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 235.5 Milwaukee Bucks vs Brooklyn Nets, 7:35 PM ET - The Under came through in Game 1 but the pace of play suggest it should have gone Over despite poor shooting by the Bucks. The results of that game have driven this line down so we will side with the value here and Over. These two teams attempted 200 field goals in Game 1 which is drastically higher than league average this season of 187. Milwaukee had a horrible 3-point shooting night in Game 1 by making just 6 of 30 3-point attempts or 20%. The law of averages suggest that was an aberration as the Bucks were the 5th best 3-point shooting team in the NBA this season at 38.9%. Not only that, the Nets 3-point percentage defense was 14th in the league allowing 36.5%. The Nets lost James Harden in Game 1 but it didn’t seem to matter as KD and Kyrie carried the Nets to a solid win in the opener. These two teams are the highest scoring teams in the NBA at 120.1PPG (Bucks) and 118.6PPG (Nets) and this number suggests Vegas is telling us one of these two teams has to get to 120 to win. The math suggests both teams get to 120+ which means we cash the Over bet.

ASA top play on 10* Over 220.5 Atlanta Hawks vs Philadelphia 76ers, 1 PM ET - These same two teams met in late April and the oddsmakers set totals of 213 and then 224 in the most recent contest. The Hawks were without Trae Young and Boban Bogdanovic in the first game but Young played in the second, so the number was adjusted up drastically. Obviously, both will be in the lineup here but the 76ers may be without Embiid who is listed as questionable. Even without Embiid the 76ers put up 129 points against Washington in that series closeout game. Atlanta just held the Knicks to under 105 points in every game of their first round series, but the Knicks offense is horrible with the 8th worst offensive efficiency in the NBA. Philly is 13th in OEFF this season and average 113.6PPG while the Hawks put up 113.7PPG on the season. Scoring will come from beyond the 3-point line with both ranking in the top 12 in 3-point percentage shooting. We expect this series to start fast with plenty of scoring from both teams. This number is set slightly lower than an ‘average’ NBA game so bet the value and play Over.

ASA top play on 10* Under 239.5 Milwaukee Bucks vs Brooklyn Nets, Game 1 Sat 7:35 PM ET - These are two of the highest scoring teams in the NBA, but we don’t think they’ll get to this number. The Bucks have the 10th best defensive efficiency numbers this season and have been outstanding in the playoffs holding the Heat to 103 or less points (in regulation) in all four games. The Bucks defensive efficiency rating of .966-points per possession are beyond outstanding. Yes, that will get tested here by the dynamic Nets, but the Bucks can matchup with Brooklyn much better than other teams can. These two teams met in early May and Vegas set totals of 243 on those two games and James Harden wasn’t in the lineup. With Harden here the number is set 3 or 4 points lower, and more money is coming in on the Over, but the line is dropping. That’s a sure tell the smart money is coming in on the Under which is the way we’ll bet this opening round game.

ASA top play on 10* LA Clippers -2.5 over Dallas Mavericks, 9 PM ET - This has been a strange series with the road team winning all five matchups. The Clippers are facing elimination here and will put forth a monster effort to extend this series. In Game 5 Luke Doncic followed up a horrible outing in Game 4 with a huge game for the Mavericks with 42 points and 14 assists. Despite Luka playing a near flawless game the Clippers still had a chance to win that game late. Odds are he can’t have another game as good as that against one of the better defensive teams in the league (Clippers rank 8th in defensive efficiency allowing just 1.113PPP). Let’s not forget the Mavs were 17th in the league in average point differential at +0.3PPG while the Clippers had the second best road differential at +4.3PPG. L.A. is 8-2 ATS the last ten meetings in Dallas and are 19-9 SU off a loss this season. The Clippers are 10-4 SU (9-5 ATS) when playing on the road and off a loss. Obviously a very big game for both teams but Kawhi and Paul George will lift the Clippers to a win and cover.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 227.5 Denver Nuggets @ Portland Trailblazers, 8:05 PM ET - This has obviously been an Over series as 4 of the five games have eclipsed the Total and all four of those finished with more than 232 plus points. In the most recent game the Blazers and Nuggets had scored 242 total points in regulation. In the one game that didn’t go Over the number the Nuggets had a horrible shooting night at just 34% overall and 30% from the 3-point line. That was very uncharacteristic of the Nuggets who are the 4th best shooting team in the NBA at 48.5% and 8th best 3-point shooting team at 37.7%. Not to mention the Blazers defense ranks 25th in overall field goal percentage defense. Had the Nuggets had a normal shooting night they score a minimum of 20 more points and Game 4 goes Over the number easily. These same two teams also met the last game of the regular season and scored 248 in that game. This matchup features two of the top 10 offenses in terms of scoring and one of the worst defenses in the NBA (Portland ranks 29th in defensive efficiency rating). The Over is 5-1 the last six meetings and 7-3 Over in the last ten in Portland. If we get and ‘average’ shooting night by both teams this game gets to the 230+ mark again.

ASA top play on: NY Knicks money line -117 over Atlanta Hawks, 7:35 PM ET - This is similar to a 1980’s series as it’s gotten chippy with both teams playing physical, intense and we like the home team Knicks to come out on top tonight. New York was 10th in the NBA in average home point differential at +4.1PPG, were 15th in offensive efficiency at home and 4th in defensive efficiency. Atlanta was 18th in average road differential at -0.4PPG and 16-20 SU away from home. The Hawks had the 11th best OEFF on the road in the league but were 27th in DEFF. Atlanta is just 1-6 ATS their last seven road games and the home team has obviously won 3 of the four meetings thus far in this series. New York is 11-4 SU at home off a loss and they basically just have to win this game at the current number to cover. Trae Young has had his way with the Knicks in the series but expect Knicks coach Thibodeau to have a scheme in place to limit his effectiveness in this contest. A big home crowd in the Garden tonight will help propel the Knicks to a win.

ASA top play on 10* LA Lakers +5 over Phoenix Suns, 10 PM ET - It’s clear LeBron can’t carry a team to a championship by himself anymore which is why he recruited Anthony Davis to come to Los Angeles in the first place but he’s got enough help to keep this critical game 5 close. After a loss in game 1 the Lakers benefited from some favorable calls and went to the free throw line 31 times on the road which is abnormal. All four games have been very low scoring which makes the points even more attractive. Yes, the Lakers are without AD but they’ve gone from being a 2-point road favorite in Game 2 to being a 5-point dog here? That’s too much of an adjustment by the oddsmakers. The Lakers have been profitable off a loss with a 17-13-1 ATS record this season and a majority of those covers came without key players in the lineup. Los Angeles has covered 4 in a row when off a loss. Phoenix has their own injury concerns and Chris Paul is clearly not 100% with a shoulder injury. The Lakers improve on their 5-2 ATS record in Phoenix with a close game tonight.

ASA top play on 10* Philadelphia 76ers -8 over Washington Wizards, 7 PM ET - There has been an adjustment by the oddsmakers here but we don’t feel it’s enough and we’re betting the 76ers end this series today with a resounding win. After a close game (7-point Philly win) in Game 1 the Sixers have crushed the Wizards in two straight games by 25 and 29-points respectively. Washington had the 3rd highest scoring average (116PPG) in the NBA on the season, but the stifling Philly defense has held them to 95 and 103 points in the previous two games. Washington is just 10 of 57 from beyond the arc in Games 2 & 3. The Wiz have no answer for Joel Embiid who is 31 of 46 from the field in the three games thus far. Washington is the worst overall efficiency team in the playoffs and the Sixers have exposed their lack of depth beyond Westbrook and Beal. Teams that lead a playoff series 3-0 have won 60% of the time and we can’t see a Washington team that didn’t enjoy much of a home court advantage (19th in home point differential) this season to make this a contest. Washington just 9-14 SU at home off a loss. Lay it with Philly.

ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets -7.5 over Boston Celtics, 7 PM ET - We are betting the Celtics won’t have the offensive explosion in this game that they had in the previous one. After scoring 93 and 108 points in the first two games of this series on 37% and 42% shooting, the Celtics exploded for 125 in Game 3. Boston shot 51% for the game and 41% from beyond the arc which are well above their season averages. Jayson Tatum will have a tough time duplicating his 50-point performance as the Nets will make adjustments here to limit his offensive production. Boston could also be without their second best offensive option with Kemba Walker who is listed as questionable, but we are assuming he plays. After a pair of double-digit wins in the first two games we expect the Nets to rebound off that embarrassing loss with a big win here. The Nets were 15-9 SU off a loss this season and have covered 7 of their last eight games overall. Boston is just 1-6 ATS their last seven games when coming off a win. Back the elite team here off a loss.

ASA top play on 10* Portland Trailblazers -4.5 over Denver Nuggets, 4 PM ET - With the Blazers at home and off a loss we like them to get a double-digit win in Game 4. When we examine Game 3 we find several anomalies that directly impacted the end result and the Nuggets win. Denver shot 53% from Downtown, making 20 of 38 3-pointers. That’s a stat line you’d typically find for Portland who shot just 31% from beyond the Arc (14 of 45). Denver also made 11 more free throws than Portland who typically attempt 21+ FT’s per game. As we talked about in our last analysis on this series Portland typically gets it done offensively by shooting 3’s while Denver relies on 2’s. Portland is the 6th best 3-point shooting team in the NBA and attempt the 5th most 3’s in the NBA. Over the last ten games of the regular season the red hot Blazers had the best offensive efficiency at 1.241PPP with an average differential of +11.6PPG. In their last ten games the Nuggets were average or below in those same two offensive categories. Portland has covered 7 of their last nine games against teams with a winning percentage of .600 or better while Denver is 1-4 ATS their last five road games against an opponent with a winning record.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 211. NY Knicks at Atlanta Hawks, 7 PM ET - The number on this game has been adjusted down from the opening game by 3 full points now so we’ll grab the value and bet the Over in Game 3. The first playoff game in Atlanta tonight is going to be electric and we expect the home team Hawks to feed off that energy. After both teams shot well in Game 1 at 45% or better, they fell well below their season averages at 38% for New York and 37% for the Hawks. On the year these same two teams shot 46% or better. Obviously, the Knicks are one of the best overall defensive teams in the NBA, but the Hawks can counter with the 8th best offensive efficiency rating in the NBA at 1.157-points per possession. The Knicks games averaged 209 total points per game on the road this season while the Hawks home games averaged 225 total points. All three games between these two teams in the regular season went Over the total and averaged 234-points in regulation. We like the trending pace of play and expect a much better shooting night here compared to Game 2. Bet OVER.

ASA top play on 10* Portland Trailblazers -3.5 over Denver Nuggets, 10:35 PM ET - This is a great series and would be even better if Jamaal Murray was healthy for the Nuggets but unfortunately, he is out for the season. With the Blazers returning home we like them to get a double-digit win in Game 3. The difference here is the depth of Portland who can get scoring from several players including Lillard, McCollum, Melo, Nurkic and even Powell. Portland gets it done offensively by shooting 3’s while Denver relies on 2’s. Portland is the 6th best 3-point shooting team in the NBA and attempt the 5th most 3’s in the NBA. Both teams have shot well in each game but when you’re making 3’s over 2’s you’re going to win. Over the last ten games of the regular season the red hot Blazers had the best offensive efficiency at 1.241PPP with an average differential of +11.6PPG. In their last ten games the Nuggets were average or below in those same two offensive categories. Portland has covered 7 of their last eight games against teams with a winning percentage of .600 or better while Denver is 0-4 ZTS their last four road games against an opponent with a winning record. The oddsmakers haven’t adjusted this number enough based on the first two games and the value lies with Portland at home.

ASA top play on 10* Utah Jazz -9 over Memphis Grizzlies, 10 PM ET - The Jazz have been the best team in the NBA for the entire season but are flying under the radar right now because of moderate play late in the season. Utah finished the season 52-20 SU with the best average point differential of plus +9.2PPG which is a full 3-points better than second place L.A. Clippers. The Jazz are 3rd in offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency and clearly the best team in the NBA statistically. Late in the season the Jazz played without Donovan Mitchell and Mike Conley and their victories weren’t as impressive which has given us value here. Memphis is coming off three very big wins just to get here as they held off the Spurs in the playoff game then went on the road and beat a weary Warriors team in OT, then upset Utah in Game 1. This young Memphis team was 6th in DEFF this season but 15th in OEFF with a point differential of +1PPG which was league average. Memphis is just 2-7 ATS their last eight when coming off a win. The Grizzlies Utah was a remarkable 31-6 SU at home this year and won those games by +13.2PPG. Uncharacteristically, the Jazz shot just 26% from beyond the arc in Game 1 which is much lower than their 4th best season average of 39%. Not to mention the Grizzlies 3-point percentage defense is 18th worse in the NBA. Utah is 15-2 SU, 7-1 at home when coming off a loss. Utah was reportedly getting Donovan Mitchell back for the last game but he was a late scratch after warming up. He is expected to play tonight which will give Utah an edge mentally and physically.

ASA top play on LA Clippers -6.5 over Dallas Mavericks, 10:35 PM ET - This is a great opportunity to bet an elite team off an embarrassing loss. The Clippers were eliminated early from the playoffs last year and were just upset as a home favorite in Game 1 of this series. If there is any game, they “show up” for it’s this one. The Mavs had a perfect storm in Game 1 with 50% shooting overall and 47% from beyond the arc. Dallas shoots just 46% on the season and 36.5% from the 3-point line. Not only that, but the Clippers defense was also 13th best shooting defense in the NBA, 6th in 3-point percentage D. The Clippers had a poor shooting night in the opener which is surprising considering they were the 5th best overall shooting team in the NBA and the best 3-point percentage. Especially, considering the Mavs defense wasn’t particularly good defending opponents shooting (13th overall, 18th 3PT%). The Clippers are d18-8 SU off a loss this year and 9-4 SU at home off a beat. Los Angeles was 26-10 SU at home during the regular season and won those games by an average of +8PPG. The Clippers are 9-4 ATS the last thirteen meetings with the Mavs and in this situation they get a resounding home win.

ASA top play on 10* Miami Heat +4.5 over Milwaukee Bucks, 7:35 PM ET - This series is going to be a dogfight from start to finish and we like the points with Miami here. The Heat were covering for 99% of Game 1 and the Bucks largest spread differential was +1.5PPG, and they did it with their two best offensive players (Butler & Adebayo) having off nights. Butler and Adebayo combined to shoot just 8 of 37 from the field for 26-total points. If we get anywhere near an average game from both, it will lead to an easy cover if not a win outright. The big separator last year when these two teams played was coaching. Heat coach Spoelstra will make adjustment and Bucks coach Budenholzer will not. These two teams are near even when it comes to defensive efficiency ratings, but the Bucks have the season long advantage when it comes to offensive efficiency. In their last ten games though the Heat have the 3rd best offensive efficiency rating in the NBA at 1.218-points per possession. Miami has covered 4 of the last five meetings in Milwaukee and they’ll keep this game close throughout again. Grab the points.

ASA top play on 10* Utah Jazz -8.5 over Memphis Grizzlies, 9:35 PM ET - The Jazz have been the best team in the NBA for the entire season but are flying under the radar right now because of moderate play late in the season. Utah finished the season 52-20 SU with the best average point differential of plus +9.2PPG which is a full 3-points better than second place L.A. Clippers. The Jazz are 3rd in offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency and clearly the best team in the NBA statistically. Late in the season the Jazz played without Donovan Mitchell and Mike Conley and their victories weren’t as impressive which has given us value here. Memphis is coming off two very big wins just to get here as they held off the Spurs in the playoff game then went on the road and beat a weary Warriors team in OT. This young Memphis team was 6th in DEFF this season but 15th in OEFF with a point differential of +1PPG which was league average. Memphis is just 1-7 ATS their last eight when coming off a win. Utah was a remarkable 31-5 SU at home this year and won those games by +13.2PPG and a fully healthy Jazz team get a double-digit win here.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 231.5 Boston Celtics vs Brooklyn Nets, 8 PM ET - We love this situation for an Over bet as the Celtics last game against a high scoring, fast paced Wizards team resulted in an Under, which influenced the bookmakers here. Looking at that Celtics/Wizards game we see those two teams scored 218 total points but they attempted 188 field goal attempts (league average is 176) but shot just 43% and 40% from the field. Washington was a dismal 3 of 21 from the 3-point line or 14%. We make that comparison because the Nets and Wizards are similar in style of play. The Nets are the #1 overall shooting team in the league and 2nd in 3-point percentage at 39.2%. They average 118.6PPG which is 2nd in the league. Boston doesn’t defend the 3-point line well with the 22nd highest percentage allowed from beyond the arc. The Celtics have a top 10 shooting offense from beyond the arc and are 10th in the NBA when it comes to offensive efficiency. Both teams are 15th or worse in defensive efficiency with the Nets ranking 22nd. These two teams met on April 23rd but both teams were missing key offensive contributors with Walker out for the C’s while the Nets played without KD and Harden. Based on our math model this game is going to result in the 240’s. Bet OVER!

ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors -4.5 over Memphis Grizzlies, 9 PM ET - There is a lot we can talk about here when it comes to breaking down numbers and statistics but in the end the team with the best player is going to advance and that is the Warriors. Steph Curry has put together a MVP type season (if I had a vote if would go to Jokic) and has lifted this Golden State team to the next level. The Warriors are 15-6 SU their last 21 games and their average differential in those games is +8.7PPG. One concern we have in this game is with the Warriors coming off such a huge emotional game against the Lakers, but Golden State is 11-2 ATS this season when playing at home off a loss. Clearly home court and having fan support is a factor right now in the NBA play in games as the home teams have won every game. Memphis looked like they were going to bury the Spurs early on the other night, but they’ve made a habit of blowing leads this season and the game finished much closer than it should have. These teams have similar overall efficiency numbers on the season but down the stretch the Warriors have been much better than the Grizzlies. Memphis is just 1-7 ATS their last eight games when coming off a win and Golden State’s 6-0 spread run goes to seven after tonight.

ASA top play on 10* LA Lakers -5.5 over Golden State Warriors, 10 PM ET - This is clearly the marquee matchup of the start of the playoffs with LeBron/AD facing off against Steph Curry. The difference is the Lakers have many more weapons than Golden State right now and several capable defenders to continually throw at Curry. Between Schroder, Pope and Caruso they can rotate fresh bodies at Curry and keep him in check. If Curry isn’t “cooking” the Warriors have a tough time scoring, especially with Kelly Oubre Jr out of the lineup. The Lakers dealt with the injuries to LBJ and AD but both are back which led to the Lakers winning 5 straight to close the season and that included a pair of quality wins over the Knicks and Suns. The Warriors were red hot to close out the season with 5 straight wins of their own and 8 of their last ten. Five of the Warriors last eight wins though came against teams that didn’t qualify for the postseason. In fact, nine of the Warriors last fifteen wins have come against teams that didn’t make the playoffs. Golden State has a slight advantage offensively when it comes to efficiency ratings but the Lakers hold the edge in terms of defensive efficiency. The Lakers have a healthy LeBron, Schroder and Anthony Davis along with newly acquired Andre Drummond which makes them a much more diverse team and too much for the Warriors to overcome. Lay the points with the Lakers.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 227.5 Charlotte Hornets vs. Indiana Pacers, 6:40 PM ET - Our math model and analytics project 220.6 total points being scored in this game or a result slightly less than the league average for points scored in a game this season. On the season an average NBA game resulted in 224.2 total points with teams attempting on average 88.4 field goal attempts. If we look at the raw data, we find both of these teams right around average in both offensive and defensive efficiency ratings. The Pacers rank 14th in OEFF, Charlotte is 22nd. Defensively the Pacers are 14th while the Hornets are 18th. Indiana is a top 5 team in terms of pace of play, but the Hornets rank 21st. We also like the value in this number as the three previous meetings this season all had totals set of 222 or less and now, we get a number much higher than that here. Charlotte has been a strong Under bet with a 9-3 Under record their last 12 on the road as a dog and are 26-11 Under their last 37 overall. Indiana is 44-27-1 Over on the year but 20-16 Over at home and those home games averaged slightly more than 228 total points. The defensive intensity for both teams will be elevated here and we don’t see this game getting to 220 or more points. Bet UNDER!

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 228.5 Memphis Grizzlies vs Golden State Warriors, 3:40 PM ET - There are a lot of meaningless games being played today but this isn’t one of them. The winner of this game secures the 8th seed in the West at a minimum which obviously has its advantages. These two team have been elite all season long with it comes to defensive efficiency ratings ranking 5th (Golden State) and 6th (Memphis). When it comes to offensive efficiency you won’t find either team in the top 14 of the entire league as the Grizzlies average 1.123-points per possession, Golden State puts up 1.111PPP. Another key factor here is pace of play. Both teams have slowed considerably their last five games with possessions per game dropping. These two teams have faced each other two times already this season and produced 219 and 214 total points. The Totals set on those two games were set around 221 which is significantly lower than today’s number. The Under has cashed in five of the last six meetings and this one should continue that trend.

ASA top play on 10* Charlotte Hornets +5.5 over NY Knicks, 1 PM ET - Both teams have incentive to win here as they jockey for positioning in the East and we expect a close game throughout with the Hornets cashing in as a sizable underdog. New York just clinched their first playoff spot in a long time and will be a dangerous team in the postseason. Charlotte has a young exciting cast but won’t be a viable team in the East for years to come. New York has the 10th best average margin of victory in the NBA at home this season of +4PPG which obviously doesn’t get a cover in this matchup. The Knicks rely on a stellar defense but struggle offensively with the 15th ranked home offensive efficiency in the Garden. Charlotte has the 23rd ranked road differential in the NBA but it’s less than today’s spread at -3.5PPG. New York is 3-0 ATS this season when favored by 5 or more points but this is clearly an unfamiliar role for them has it’s happened just three times this season. These two teams have split this season but Charlotte has covered 4 of the last five meetings. Expect a playoff like intensity by both teams today and a close game that goes down to the wire.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 226.5 Sacramento Kings vs. Memphis Grizzlies, 9:10 PM ET - The Grizzlies just eliminated the Kings from the playoffs last night so do not expect a full effort from Sacramento tonight. The Kings have been a strong Under play lately with 7 of their last eight games staying below the number. They’ve also stayed Under in their last five road games against a team with a losing home record. The Under is also 19-9 the last 28 meetings between these two teams. Memphis is also on a 4-1 Under run and 20-7 Under their last 27 home games against a team with a losing record. The Grizzlies have played dramatically slower in their last five games and we expect that trend to carry on here. Memphis has averaged 97.7 possessions per game their last five which is lower than their season average of 100.4PPP. Our model is projecting just 220 total points in this contest. Bet Under

ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns -4.5 over Portland Trailblazers, 10:10 PM ET - We went against the Blazers last night and lost but will go right back to the well here with a wager on the Suns. Portland has been better on the road this season but going back to 2018 they are 56-62 SU with a negative differential of -1.2PPG. Phoenix is 26-9 SU at home this season with the second-best average margin of victory at +9.2PPG. The Suns have won 13 of their last fourteen home games and have three straight solid wins over other playoff teams (beat Knicks by 23, Jazz by 21 and Clippers by 8). The Suns have been especially good when coming off a loss this season with a 16-5 SU record, 8-2 at home. After a pair of disappointing losses, we like the Suns to get a double-digit win against a Blazers team coming off a huge road win last night and playing unrested.

ASA top play on 10* Utah Jazz Money Line -113 over Portland Trailblazers, 9:40 PM ET - The Jazz had won five straight games prior to their most recent game, a loss to the Warriors by 3-points. Utah gets back on the winning track tonight against Portland who has been equally as hot with a 8-1 record their last nine games. Utah is 31-4 SU at home this season with the best average point differential of +13.8PPG and going back to 2018 they are 82-27 SU at home +8.8PPG. Portland has been better on the road this season but going back to 2018 they are 56-61 SU with a negative differential of -1.2PPG. The Jazz have covered 4 straight at home against the leagues better teams with a winning percentage of .600 or better. The Jazz have covered 7 of the last ten meetings at home against the Blazers and get a much needed win here tonight.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 230.5 Phoenix Suns @ Golden State Warriors, 10:10 PM ET - Golden State is in a tough scheduling situation as they are off a big win last night against the Jazz, are playing their 3rd game in four days and 6th in nine days. Golden State has played in some lower scoring games when playing without rest with a 10-4 Under record with games averaging 218.5PPG. These two teams are top 6 in the league when it comes to defensive efficiency ratings as both allow less than 1.11-points per possession. Both teams rely heavily on their 3-points shooting but both are excellent at defending beyond the arc as the Suns rank 6th in 3-pt% D while the Warriors are 8th. Golden State is the 2nd fastest paced team in the league, but they are 22nd in offensive efficiency. Phoenix is the 5th slowest paced team in the NBA so they’ll prefer to walk it up in this one and without rest, the Warriors will play slower too. The Under has cashed 10 of the last eleven meetings overall and 4 straight in the Bay. The two meetings this season have resulted in 218 and 207 total points. Easy UNDER here.

ASA top play on 10* Milwaukee Bucks -6.5 over San Antonio, 8:30 PM ET - The Spurs are fighting for their playoff lives but the Bucks still have an outside shot at the #1 seed in the East. Milwaukee has gotten it going with a five-game winning streak which includes a pair of wins over the Brooklyn Nets. Milwaukee is 19-14 SU on the road this season, but they have the 2nd best average margin of victory in the league at +5PPG. In their last seven road games the Bucks average MOV is +11.2PPG. The Spurs last home game came against the 76ers and they were a +10-point dog in that game and the difference in this number is too high. San Antonio is 13-20 SU at home this season with the 24th worst differential at minus -3.1PPG. These two teams have similar defensive numbers but the Bucks #1 scoring, 3rd best shooting is far superior to the Spurs offense that ranks 20th in PPG scored and is 20th in FG%. The Spurs 2-5 losing ATS home streak continues here.

ASA top play on 10* NY Knicks +7.5 over LA Clippers, 3:30PM ET The Knicks have been a great surprise this season and will be a dangerous draw come playoff time. The Clippers are one of a few teams that can certainly win it all this season. New York has the 13th best road differential in the NBA at +0.4PPG even though they have a losing overall record. They have rewarded their backers with a current 11-3 ATS run their last fourteen road games. New York has also been solid off a loss recently with a 4-1 ATS streak. New York relies on their defense which is one of the best in the NBA allowing just 1.081-points per possession on the road this year, 3rd best in the NBA. We are not ignoring the fact that the Clippers are 26-9 SU at home this season and they’ve won those games by an average of +8.5PPG but winning by that margin will be tough today. The Clippers are just 1-5 ATS their last six games as a favorite, 3-3 SU. The Clippers are off a big win over the Lakers and New York is off a bad loss. Grab the points with New York.

ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets -4 over Denver Nuggets, 10:10 PM ET - The first aspect of this game that grabbed our attention was the line. Consider this, why are the Nuggets this big of a home dog and why is Brooklyn laying the same spread as they were in Dallas a few nights ago? The answer is obvious, they want us to bet Denver and we won’t fall into that trap. In fact, it’s showing in the betting markets as more money and tickets have come in on the Nuggets yet the line has fluctuated up slightly. Brooklyn is in a battle in the East with Milwaukee for the best overall record and come into this game having lost four straight games which gives us extra motivation here. The Nuggets on the other hand are in a bad scheduling situation as they are off a HUGE game last night with Utah and now play without rest in the higher altitude of Denver. Brooklyn as a small favorite has been “money” this season with a 11-2 ATS record when laying 4.5 or less points. Denver on the other hand has struggled as a small dog in this same price range with a 4-8 ATS record. Denver has a long list of injuries to key contributors which makes playing without rest that much more difficult. Granted the Nets don’t have Harden yet but they still have Kyrie and KD which will be more than enough to get this much need road win by a decent margin. Bet the Nets with confidence!

ASA top play on: Over 225 San Antonio Spurs vs Sacramento Kings, 10:10 PM ET - This game has huge playoff implications for both teams as they battle for a top 10 spot in the Western Conference. San Antonio is coming off several lower scoring game but the last three games have come against two of the top three defensive teams in the NBA (Utah & Philadelphia). Now the Spurs face a Kings team that is last in the league in defensive efficiency and 28th in points allowed per game at 118PPG. Sacramento is going to score too in this game with the 11th highest scoring offense in the NBA at 114PPG. The Kings are also the 9th fastest paced teams in the league so they’ll get plenty of shots up in this contest. These two teams met in March and totaled 226 and 247 total points in the two games and the numbers set on those games were both above 230. The Spurs are on a 5-1 Over run overall and have played to the Over in 4 straight versus a team with a losing record. The Over is also on a 5-1 run when these two teams have met in Sacramento. This will be a higher scoring game with both teams getting to 115 or more. BET OVER

ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets -3 over Dallas Mavericks, 7:40 PM ET - The Nets are off 3 straight losses, two of which came against the Bucks in Milwaukee. Brooklyn is a team capable of winning it all this season with or without James Harden and we can’t say the same for Dallas. The Mavs have put together a very good season overall but this is a great spot to play against them. Dallas is coming off a solid road win in Miami where they shot ridiculously well at 53% overall and made 22 of 48 3-pointers. We expect a return to their season averages of 47% overall and 36% from beyond the arc. Dallas is just 4-5 SU their last nine home games and have the 19th worst home point differential in the NBA at minus -1.1PPG. Brooklyn on the other hand have the 9th best road point differential in the league at +2.5PPG. The Nets are 14-8 SU this season off a loss and we like them to get a 6+ point win here.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 227.5 Phoenix Suns vs Atlanta Hawks, 8:10 PM ET - The Hawks are coming off a game against the Blazers and those two teams produced 237 total points. Prior to that game the Hawks had some lower scoring contests but a few of those games came without Trae Young, their leading scorer in the lineup. Atlanta has given up more than 114 points in 3 of their last four games and 126+ in two. The Phoenix Suns are clicking offensively right now with 118 or more points in five of their last six games. Over the course of their last five games the Suns have the 2nd most efficient offense in the NBA at 1.247-points per possession. Phoenix is on a 4-0 Over streak their last four road games, while the Hawks have rewarded Over bettors with an 19-7 streak when a home dog. Both offenses will get it going here with these two teams combining for 230+ points

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 228 Sacramento Kings at Oklahoma City Thunder, 8:10 PM ET - We will start with the number that has been set on this game. Consider this, the Kings just played the Mavericks and Vegas set a similar Total on that game. Let’s compare the Mavericks and Thunder and see why this number is set too high. The Mavs are 8th in offensive efficiency, the Thunder are LAST. Defensively, the Mavs and Thunder are 20th and 21st in DEFF so equal. The Thunder score just 105.4PPG on the season which ranks 28th. The Kings on the other hand are 11th in scoring and 11th in OEFF but a lot of their offensive success has come with PG De’Aaron Fox and his 25.2PPG and 7.2APG on the court who is out tonight with an injury. Sacramento is averaging 88.4 field goal attempts per game (about league average) but in their last six games they have averaged just 82.5FGA per game. The Kings had an aberration against the Jazz when they allowed 154 points but in 3 of their last four games, they’ve allowed 106 or less. Looking at OKC’s last ten teams we see 7 games where they scored 109 or less points, three of which they did not reach 96. 5 of the last six meetings between these two teams in OKC have resulted in an Under.

ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets +2 over Milwaukee Bucks, 7:40 PM ET - This is a quick rematch from the other day when the Bucks beat the Nets at home 117-114. The Bucks got 49-points from Antetokounmpo in the win while Brooklyn relied on Kevin Durant who scored 42. The difference was a bad shooting night by the Nets as they hit just 43% from the field while the Bucks shot 49%. Obviously, there was that big of a discrepancy in shooting, yet the Bucks only won by 3-points. Brooklyn is the BEST shooting team in the NBA at 49.2% so expect a return to normal tonight. The Nets are 7-3 ATS their last ten as a road dog and have covered 4 of their last five following a loss. As a favorite of 7-points or less the Bucks are 10-17 ATS this season, the Nets as a dog in that same price range are 10-6 ATS. Kyrie Irving had a relatively quiet night the other night and we expect a much better showing from him and the Nets here. Bet the revenge minded Nets.

ASA top play on 10* Atlanta Hawks -2 over Portland Trailblazers, 8:10 PM ET - There is no denying the Blazers are clicking right now but this is a great spot to fade them due to scheduling. Not only is Portland coming off a BIG win yesterday over Boston, they are playing their 5th game in seven days. Atlanta though had a day off and were at home the previous game so they are rested and didn’t have to travel. The Hawks are 9-3 ATS when playing with 1 day rest. If you look at the Hawks recent games they played several without Clint Capela, Trae Young or both but they are in the lineup tonight. Atlanta has won and covered 5 straight at home with quality wins against the Bucks, Pacers and Heat. Atlanta is 13-3 ATS their last 16 as a home favorite and they get a solid home win here.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 211 Miami Heat vs Charlotte Hornets, 8:10 pm ET - This number is surprisingly low and our computer math model is calling for 218 or more total points. These same two teams have already met twice this season and they had totals higher than this number of 213.5 and 216.5 and they went Over in both those games. Miami and their opponents have totaled 212 or more points in 4 of their last five games and are on a 5-0 Over streak. Charlotte got LaMello Ball back last night who pushes the pace for the Hornets and gives them an added scoring option they’ve missed recently. When playing without rest the Hornets are 6-7 Over this season but those games have averaged 220PPG. These two teams are in the bottom half of the league in both pace of play and scoring but let’s not forget league average of NBA games is around 222PPG and this number is well below that. The Over has cashed 4 straight times in this series, make it 5 after today.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 222 LA Clippers vs Denver Nuggets, 10:10 PM ET - This game features two of the elite teams in the West and both are without significant contributors offensively as the Clippers are without Leonard (25.7PPG), while the Nuggets are missing Murray (21.2PPG). In fact, these two teams met in early April with those two players and the teams combined for just 195 total points. That was with Leonard/Murray combining for 47 points that won’t be on the floor in this game. Strangely enough the Over/Under set on that previous game was 220 and lower than this number. These two teams are both top 12 in defensive efficiency and most importantly the 3rd and 4th SLOWEST paced teams in the NBA. With neither team interested in playing fast we can’t see this game getting to a league average of 222 total points. In the last nine meetings between these two teams these two teams have totaled less than today’s number eight times. Going back further, these two have stayed Under the total in 24 of the last 33 meetings in L.A. BET UNDER!

ASA top play on 10* San Antonio Spurs +4.5 over Boston Celtics, 7:40 PM ET - Both teams have plenty to play for as the Spurs are fighting for an “at large bid” and a chance to play in, while the Celtics are trying to lock in a top 6 seed which would keep them out of the play in games. San Antonio is playing well right now with 5 wins in their last seven games and a couple of those victories were impressive as they beat a red-hot Wizards team and the Phoenix Suns. Conversely, the Celtics are 2-4 SU their last six games and two of those loses came against two of the league’s weakest teams in Charlotte, and Oklahoma City. The Spurs are coming off a tough loss in Miami, but they’ve cashed 80% in this situation as they are 8-2 ATS on the road off a loss. Boston is coming off a 9-point win over Charlotte as a -6.5-point favorite which also contributes to our prediction here as the C’s are 7-15-1 ATS their last 23 when coming off a win. This game shapes up to be a tight affair which has us on the Underdog plus the points.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 234.5 Golden State Warriors @ Minnesota Timberwolves - These are two of the four fastest paced teams in the NBA for the season but in their last five games both teams have slowed significantly. In the two meetings in January between these two teams they combined for 234 and 238 total points but the field goal attempts were very low compared to both team’s season averages. Golden State is 8th in defensive efficiency while the Wolves are 28th, but with the return of Karl Anthony Towns and DeAngelo Russell the Wolves DEFF has improved to 11th best in the NBA in their last five games. Golden State just played horrendous defense last game against the Mavericks so expect a much better effort tonight. There are plenty of trend support for the Under here as the Warriors are 6-1 Under their last seven road games as a favorite. Wolves are on a 4-1 Under run their last five games following a straight up win. Historically, the Under has cashed 27 of the last 39 meetings. The bet here is UNDER

ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns -4 over LA Clippers, 10:10 PM ET - This game has been marked on our calendar since these teams last met and we were hoping this line would come out as low as it has so we could play on the Suns. There is some “bad blood” between these two teams with hard fouls, technical and ejections occurring in the previous two meetings. The last time these rivals met the Clippers held on to win at home 113-103. Kawhi Leonard, who is out here, poured in 27-points, grabbed 5 rebounds and had 5 assists for the Clippers. L.A. is also without Beverly who would typically “dog” either Chris Paul or Devin Booker in this matchup. These two teams are right behind the Jazz in the standings and both would love the #1 seed in the West. Phoenix has one of the best home court advantages in the NBA with a 23-9 SU record and the third best average margin of victory of +8.4PPG. The Suns have the 5th best offensive efficiency at home, 4th best DEFF at home. The Clippers have solid road differentials but they haven’t been as good defensively on the road ranking 12th in defensive efficiency away from home. Phoenix is 8-1 ATS their last nine home games against a team with a winning record while the Clippers are 2-5 ATS their last seven road games against a team with a plus .500 home record. The Suns get revenge here in a big win!

ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors -5 over Dallas Mavericks, 9:40 PM ET - Dallas is dealing with several key injuries including Porzingis, Richardson, Redick and potentially Doncic tonight and won’t have a full compliment of players to deal with a hot Warriors team. Golden State has won 7 of their last ten games including two straight against the Kings and Nuggets. The Warriors three loses in that ten game stretch came to the blistering Wizards and Celtics. The Mavs have cooled a bit with a 5-5 SU record their last ten games and are coming off a game last night at Sacramento. This will be the Mavericks 5th game in seven days and the second of a back-to-back which will be tough to overcome. We basically need the Warriors to win outright and Golden State is 22-13 SU this season when playing with a day rest. The Mavericks are just 5-7 SU and ATS when playing without rest. Dallas is on an 0-4 ATS streak when coming off a loss. We like Steph and company to get a big win here.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 215.5 Phoenix Suns @ NY Knicks, 7:40 PM ET - We have a pair of top six defensive teams going head-to-head tonight when the Knicks and Suns square off. New York has the 3rd best defensive efficiency numbers in the league at 1.083-points per possession while the Suns allow just 1.101PPP. The other key aspect of this wager is the pace of play numbers. New York is the slowest paced team in the NBA at 96 possessions per game, Phoenix is 7th at 97.2. We get two teams that want to play slow and play outstanding defense, yet the number set on this game is just 6-points lower than league average. The Knicks have the #1 ranked overall field goal percentage defense and the 3-point percentage D while the Suns check in at #10 in overall FG% D and are 5th in 3PT% defense. Phoenix is coming off a game yesterday against the Nets and have slightly favored the Under when playing without rest with a 6-8 Under record on the year in this scheduling situation. New York has played some higher scoring games recently, but they haven’t faced a top 10 defense in ten straight games. In fact, the last good defensive team the Knicks played was the Lakers and that game ended with just 207 total points. We like a low scoring game here and a solid Under bet.

ASA top play on: OVER 229.5 Sacramento Kings @ Golden State Warriors, 10:10 PM ET - The Kings are without DeAaron Fox here but the line has been adjusted for his absence but not enough according to our models. The Kings are atrocious defensively allowing 119PPG (last in the NBA), have the 30th ranked field goal percentage defense and are 29th defending the 3-point line. How do you think that is going to stop Steph Curry and the Warriors who are 12th in 3-point shooting and average 115PPG. Sacramento is the 9th fastest paced team in the NBA and won’t slow down here just because Fox is out. The Kings will also put up points with the 7th highest scoring offense in the NBA at 114.6PPG, 6th best FG% shooting offense and 16th best 3-point percentage. Golden State is also the 2nd fastest paced team in the NBA so they’ll gladly play uptempo with the Kings. In the two meetings this season these two teams have combined for 260 and 243 total points. The Kings are on a 7-3 Over run when playing on the road against a team with a winning home record. The Warriors are 4-1 Over their last five home games against a team with a losing road record. The bet here is OVER!

ASA top play on 10* Philadelphia 76ers +7.5 over Milwaukee Bucks - These two teams just met on Thurs with the Bucks winning 124-117. The 76ers shot 51% overall, 44% from 3 and had 33 rebounds. The Bucks outdid them though and shot 56% overall, made 20 of 40 3-pointers and outrebound the Sixers by 12. The Bucks are now 2-0 vs. Philly this year which makes this game that much more important for Philadelphia. The 76ers are 17-13 SU on the road with a +3.5PPG MOV which is 7th best in the NBA. Philly is in a much more desperate situation having lost 3 straight games while Milwaukee has won 4 of their last six. The 76ers are 12-7 SU when off a loss this year, 11-7-1 ATS. The 76ers are 3-7 ATS as a road dog this season – BUT those losses have come by an average of just -2.5PPG. This game is going to have a playoff like intensity which has us on the Underdog. Make sure you check the starting lineups before tipoff and Joel Embiid is scheduled to play.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 228 Denver Nuggets @ Golden State Warriors, 10:10 PM ET - This is a quick turnaround game for these two teams as they just met on April 12th with the Warriors winning 116-107. The O/U on that game was 227.5 and that was with Jamal Murray in the lineup for the Nuggets. In that game the Nuggets attempted just 83 field goals while the Warriors shot just 81 times. Those are both well below their season averages for each team. Golden State is coming off a tough five game East coast road trip and it was obvious Steph Curry ran out of our gas against Washington last time out. The Nuggets are the 2nd slowest paced team in the NBA and will certainly walk it up here against a Warriors team that typically plays fast, but off that road trip will play slower here. Golden State has been improving their defensive efficiency numbers and have climbed to 7th in the NBA while the Nuggets are 15th in DEFF but 10th in points allowed defense. The Nugs are on a 5-0 Under streak on the road, Golden State Under 4-1 their last five versus teams with a winning record. The Under is 5-1 the last six meetings between these two, including both meetings this season with end results of 218 and 223. The bet here is UNDER the total.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 225.5 Philadelphia 76ers vs. Milwaukee Bucks, 7:10 PM ET - These two teams are clearly a pair of the best teams in the East and could certainly represent in the NBA Finals and both have MVP caliber players in Giannis and Embiid. The Bucks were held by Memphis and Phoenix to 115 and 116 points in regulation their last two games and those teams are similar defensively to the 76ers but not quite as good. Philly is 2nd in the NBA in defensive efficiency rating allowing just 1.076PPP. While we are on the subject of defense, the Bucks have seen their defensive numbers improve recently and now rank 8th in DEFF allowing just 1.107PPP. The 76ers have the 4th best FG% defense allowing 45.3% on the season, Milwaukee is 5th best at 45.4%. These two played on March 17th and totaled 214 total points in OVERTIME. This game has a playoff feel and several key scorers could be out for both teams making scoring more difficult. The bet here is UNDER!

ASA top play on 10* Washington Wizards +2 over Golden State Warriors, 7:10 PM ET - There is no denying the play of Steph Curry right now is off the charts but even he won’t have enough in the tank to carry the Warriors to a win here. The Wizards have gone on a nice run with five straight wins and 7 of their last ten. Washington recently beat the Warriors 110-107 in Golden State as a 4-point road dog. There is a vast majority of money and tickets coming in on Golden State in this game yet the line has moved in the opposite direction which is a clear indicator the smart players are backing Washington. Golden State has the second worst road spread record in the NBA at 12-19 ATS with the 8th worst road point differential at minus -4.3PPG. Golden State is coming off a very big win in Philly which ties into their 13-15 ATS record this season (with a negative differential) when coming off a win. Russ and Beal can trade buckets with Curry tonight.

ASA top play on LA Clippers -8.5 over Portland Trailblazers, 10:10 PM ET - These same two teams met earlier this month with the Clippers winning 133-116 and the Blazers had Damian Lillard for that game, but he is out here. Another starter missing from the line up is starting center Nurkic and his 9.3PPG and 7.5RPG. Los Angeles is playing well with a 9-1 SU record their last ten games and a 4-0-1 ATS streak their last five games overall. Portland is in a funk right now with a 2-5 SU record their last five games and they have three home losses this month to teams similar to the Clippers (Celtics, Heat, Bucks). L.A. is 17-11 SU on the road this year with the 3rd best scoring differential of +5.1PPG on the season. Portland has a winning home record on the season but their average margin of victory is just 0.1PPG and 16th in the NBA. The Clippers have a top five offense in terms of scoring, field goal percentage and 3-points shooting while the Blazers rank in the bottom eleven defensively in those same categories. The Clippers have covered 5 straight versus the Blazers, make it six in a row after tonight.

ASA top play on 10* Denver Nuggets -7.5 over Memphis Grizzlies, 9:10 PM ET - We like the Nuggets here as they catch the Grizzlies are coming off a huge upset of the Bucks in Milwaukee a few nights ago. The Grizzlies shot ridiculously well at 55% which is well above their season average and had Valanciunas in the lineup who is out tonight. Memphis could also be without another starter here in Dillon Brooks who is questionable with a thigh injury. Memphis is playing their 4th game in six days which will be a factor playing in the higher altitude of Denver. The Nuggets have been off for a few days and have adjusted to being without Murray with two straight wins. The Nugs have won 10 of their last twelve games. Denver is 19-10 SU at home on the year with the 6th best average home differential of +6PPG. Ten of the Nuggets last fourteen home wins have come by 9 or more points. Memphis has some impressive road numbers this season, but with the current situation and injuries this will be a difficult spot for them to cover. Denver has a top 5 offense when it comes to 3pt%, FG% and points and should have an easy time scoring against a Grizzlies defense that is in the bottom half of the NBA in FG% D, scoring D and 11th in 3pt% defense. Memphis hasn’t covered in Denver in four straight trips here. Lay the points.

#577/578 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 219.5 Points – Houston vs Orlando, Sunday at 7:10 PM ET - Two of the worst offensive teams in the NBA facing off here and we look for a low scoring affair. The Rockets are 24th in the league averaging just 108 PPG while Orlando is 29th in the NBA putting up just 104 PPG. The only team in the NBA that averages fewer points than the Magic is Cleveland. When it comes to offensive efficiency these teams are 27th and 29th in the NBA averaging just 105 & 106 points per 100 possessions. They also rank 28th and 30th in field goal percentage. The Rockets have been held to under 110 points in 4 of their last 6 games while the Magic have been limited to 106 points or less in 4 of their last 5 games. Going back even further, Orlando’s offense has not topped 116 points in 15 straight games. Over their last 19 games Orlando is averaging just 101 PPG and they’ve been held under 100 points 9 times. Now when we add the injury situation, these two offenses, who are already among the worst in the NBA, will absolutely have problems scoring in this game. The Rockets have 64 PPG sitting on the bench and out for this game with Gordon, Wall, Brown, Augustin, and Nwaba all out for this one. Orlando will be missing Carter-Williams, Fultz, Porter Jr, and Bamba who combine account for 37 PPG on the season. Just too much offensive firepower missing from two teams that already struggle offensively. Take the UNDER here.

#559 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cleveland Cavaliers +1.5 over Chicago Bulls, Bulls playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and 4th game in seven days while the Cavs are rested. Chicago will be shorthanded here with All-Star Zach LaVine sidelined due to illness. Prior to Friday nights game the Bulls had lost 4 straight games all by an average of 9PPG. Despite a 3-3 SU record their last six games the Cavs have played better overall. The Cavs have some of the worst offensive numbers in the NBA on the season including offensive efficiency (28th) and scoring 30th. But with the return of Kevin Love the offense has been much better ranking 14th in OEFF their last five games. The Cavs are 5-0 ATS their last five road games versus a team with a losing record. We mentioned the rest factor in favor of the Cavs as the Bulls are 0-5 ATS their last five games when playing without rest.

#536 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia -2.5 over LA Clippers, Friday at 7:10 PM ET - The Sixers should definitely be the fresher team in this one as they had a day off on April 13th after completing a successful road trip, then played on April 14th at home before another day off yesterday. The Clips, on the other hand, will be playing their 3rd road game in 4 nights here. Philly is also the healthier team in this match up. LA is banged up with Kawhi Leonard possibly missing his 4th straight game here and Beverly & Ibaka still out. The Clippers are 3-0 with Kawhi out however those wins have coming vs Detroit (twice) and Indiana, both below .500 with the Pistons sitting with the worst record in the East. LA barely got by Detroit on Wednesday 100-98 with ex-Piston Reggie Jackson hitting a shot at the buzzer for the win. Philly has been fantastic at home with a 21-5 record, the 2nd best in the NBA behind Utah. They have a +7 PPG point differential at home and they are getting healthy. Both Embiid and Simmons are good to go tonight and Harris looks like he’ll be a go as well (sore knee). We feel this team is undervalued despite their impressive 38-17 record. That’s because the 3 players listed above have combined to miss 30 games this season and the Sixers have been forced to use 20 different starting line ups in the process. They are still 21 games above .500 despite that. When healthy, like tonight, they are outstanding. They have the #2 defense in the NBA allowing 107 points per 100 possessions and they are off a big home win over the Nets on Wednesday when Embiid, Simmons, and Harris combined for 82 points and 18 rebounds. Now they’ve had a day off to get ready for tonight’s big match up with the Clippers. Los Angeles topped Philly in late March but the 76ers weren’t at full strength with Embiid out. Now catching LA in a tough spot, we like Philadelphia tonight.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* LA Lakers +6.5 over Boston, Thursday at 10 PM ET - The Celtics are coming off back to back road wins over Denver & Portland so they are a bit overvalued coming into LA. Boston was an underdog in both of those games now laying 6.5 on the road in their 3rd road game in 6 nights. Since LeBron has been out with injury, LA has been a home dog of +6 vs the Sixers and +8.5 vs Milwaukee, 2 of the top teams in the NBA. Now they are getting around the same number vs Boston? This is a bad line in our opinion. The Lakers are off a 4-3 road trip including a blowout win @ Brooklyn the team with the 2nd best record in the East. With LeBron and AD still on the shelf, the Lakers have gotten a big boost with the acquisition of Andre Drummond who has averaged 10 PPG and 11 RPG in his 4 games with LA. Even without their 2 stars the Lakers have been competitive with a 6-7 overall record since LeBron went out and they’ve covered 4 of their last 5. They are undervalued with those 2 on the sideline. Boston steps in off a big 1-point win @ Portland in a back and forth game that could leave them a bit heavy legged for this one just 2 days later. The Celts have a losing road record this season and they are just 4-9 ATS in their 13 games this year as a road favorite. They’ve lost 8 of those 13 games outright. Lakers keep this close and pick up the cover at home.

ASA top play on 10*: Denver Nuggets -4 over Miami Heat 10:10PM ET We have obviously been doing this for a very looooong time and one situation that has been profitable for us repeatedly is betting a team in their first game since losing a star player. The Nuggets suffered a huge blow when Jamaal Murray injured his knee late in their game Monday. Typically, what happens is that role player replacement rises to the occasion when they get extended minutes. The separator of great NBA players and say bench players is consistency. Monte Morris, Will Barton or Campazzo will step up and fill the Murray void for this game. There are other parts of this wager we like including an elite team like Denver coming off a bad loss on Monday to Golden State. The Nuggets also catch a scheduling break with the Heat coming off a game last night and playing their 5th game in just nine days. Unfortunately, the Heat also lost last night (1-5 ATS L6 following a double-digit loss) but the lack of rest in the higher altitude of Denver will be an issue. Miami is just 8-12 ATS against winning teams, 3-6 ATS when a dog of 4.5-points or less versus anyone. Denver is 18-10 SU at home with the 7th best average point differential in the league at +5.5PPG. The Nuggets are 6-1 SU their last seven at home and get an 8-point home win here, even without Murray.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 223 Atlanta Hawks vs Toronto Raptors, 7:40 PM ET - We feel the line on this game has been heavily influenced by each teams last games and is much lower than it should be. The Hawks are coming off a game against the struggling Hornets (7-3 Under their last 10 games) where they totaled just 206 points. The Raptors are coming off the defensive minded, slow paced Knicks and totaled just 198 total points. As far as the Hawks are concerned, they had gone Over in 7 of their last nine games prior to playing Charlotte. Atlanta games have totaled more than this number in 9 of their last ten. Atlanta is 8th in the NBA in offensive efficiency at 1.155-points per possession. As we mentioned, the Raptors are coming off a very low scoring game but prior to that had put up 135-points against the Cavs and totaled 235 the game before against the Bulls. Toronto also has another 130-point game in their last six games, so they are more than capable of putting up a big number here. Toronto is top 13 of the league in offensive efficiency and pace. The first two meetings of this season between these two teams has resulted in 241 and 253 total points. Bet OVER here.