Sports Picks & Predictions

ASA Top Play on 10* UNDER 227 Oklahoma City Thunder at Golden State Warriors, 10:10 PM ET - The Warriors will be without Draymond Green (who doesn’t impact this number significantly) and Steph Curry who clearly has a huge impact on the game/outcome. Curry has carried the Warriors offensively this season averaging 30.7 points per game, on 49% shooting from the field and 45% from beyond the Arc. His absence was obvious in their most recent game against the Wolves when they managed just 101-points and shot just 42% from the field as a team. They also hit just 13 of 39 3-pointers in the game. Another factor is the pace of play and how it changes with the aging Chris Paul on the floor who prefers to play slow. The Warriors are 24th in the league in effective FG% at 52% but have an EF% of 47.4% in their last three games. It won’t be an easy task scoring tonight against a Thunder defense that ranks 7th in overall efficiency ratings allowing just 1.097-points per possession. OKC has held their last three opponents to 105 (Kings), 99 (Suns) and 87 (Spurs) points. This has been a very high scoring series but without Curry on the floor we expect a much lower scoring output in this one. If we go back to 2019 the Warriors are 78-89 (53.3%) Under when coming off a loss.

ASA top play on #513 Sacramento Kings +1.5 vs LA Lakers, 10 PM ET - This is a very favorable scheduling situation for the Kings as they catch the Lakers off a win last night over Memphis. Not only is this the second night of a back-to-back, it’s also the 3rd game in four nights and 4th in six days. How much will LeBron even play tonight? The Kings have had their ups and downs but now have DeAaron Fox back from injury and have won 3 straight. The Kings last game/win came on Nov 13th over the Cavaliers 132-120. These two teams have similar efficiency ratings when it comes to defense, but offensively It’s not close as the Kings average 1.127 points per possession compared to the Lakers 1.088PPP. Last season in this scheduling situation the Lakers had one of the worst efficiency differentials in the NBA at minus -10.7 and they won just 40% of those games. The Kings have been especially good on the offensive glass in their last three games, averaging 13 O-boards per game compared to the Lakers 8.7. This means more to the Kings who have always had to look up to the Lakers and it’s shown in recent years with the Kings winning 5 of the last six meetings, including a 5-point win earlier this season. We like Sacramento here over a fatigued Lakers team.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 225.5 Atlanta Hawks @ Detroit Pistons, 7:10 PM ET - This line opened 233.5 and has moved down giving us added value with an Over bet. The Hawks are the 3rd fastest paced team in the league at 102.2 possessions per game. Detroit is slightly below average at 99.5 for the season. Detroit is 21st in offensive efficiency, averaging 1.103 points per possession. The Hawks are 5th at 1.177PPP. The key here is that both are in the bottom third of the league when it comes to defensive efficiency as both allow more than 1.140 points per possession. In their last five games, each team has been worse on the defensive end of the court allowing 117.6PPG (Hawks) and 118.6PPG (Pistons). Atlanta does a great job on the offensive boards with the 5th best average in the league compared to the Pistons who rank 14th in allowing O-boards. Conversely, the Pistons are 7th in the NBA in offensive rebounds per game, while the Hawks the 15th most. Both teams convert in transition extremely well ranking 3rd and 9th in fast break efficiency. Atlanta is coming off two straight games against top 10 defensive efficiency teams in the Heat and Magic and those games finished with 226 and 239 total points. Detroit is coming off two lower scoring games by their standards, but they faced a top 10 defense in Philly and the 3rd slowest paced team in the Bulls. Last season in four meetings these two teams scored 231, 248, 235 and 236. Bet Over!

ASA top play on 10* Minnesota Timberwolves -6 @ San Antonio Spurs, 8:10 PM ET - The Wolves have opened some eyes this season with a current 4 game winning streak with impressive wins against Boston and Denver in that stretch. Granted, both W’s were at home but now they face a young Spurs team going through growing pains. San Antonio is 4-6 SU on the season but have now lost 3 straight with one of those being at home to the Raptors as a +3.5-point underdog. The Wolves should be a bigger favorite here if Toronto was laying -3.5. Minnesota is 3rd in the league in average point differential at plus +10.6PPG. San Antonio is last in the league in +/- at minus -12.5PPG. Neither offense has been great, ranking near league average in offensive efficiency, but defensively it’s not close. In fact, there couldn’t be a great difference between two teams in the league when it come to DEFF with the Wolves ranking 1st and the Spurs 30th. We will lay the points and predict a double-digit win by Minnesota in this one.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 219.5 LA Lakers @ Houston Rockets, 8 PM ET - We don’t see many points being scored in this contest and will bet UNDER the total. Houston is actually playing defense for their new coach Udoka which shouldn’t be a surprise considering his Celtics in 21-22 was #1 in the league in defensive efficiency. Houston has held the Kings to 97 and 89 points in their last two games and also held the Warriors to 106 four games ago. The Kings and Warriors were both top 10 in offensive efficiency a year ago. Now they face a Lakers team that was 20th in OEFF last season and currently rank 25th this season at 1.047-points per possession. Houston is ranked near league average in both offensive and defensive efficiency with their games averaging 218.8 total points per game. The Lakers are scoring less than the league average at 111.1PPG and rank 29th in team 3PT% at 29.8%. Both teams favored the UNDER last season when playing in this rest schedule with a combined 12-17-1 combined record.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 227.5 in Washington Wizards @ Philadelphia 76ers, 7 PM ET - NBA games are averaging 225.2 points per game but this game will be anything but ‘average’. The Wiz are the fastest paced team in the league 105.5 possessions per game. They have to play fast because they don’t play defense and they are not overly efficient on the offensive end. Washington is averaging 115PPG but allowing 125.2PPG. They are 29th out of 30 teams in the NBA when it comes to defensive efficiency. That’s not a good recipe for success against a Philadelphia team that is averaging 1.188-points per possession which is 4th best in the league. The Sixers are the 6th best FG% team in the league at 48.6%, 6th in 3PT% at 39% and it doesn’t hurt they make their free throws at 81.8% which is 5th. Washington has some of the worst defensive numbers in the league including being last in FG% D and 28th in 3PT% D. The Wiz have faced Atlanta, Boston and Indiana this season who have similar scoring number to Philly and those three teams put 130, 126 and 143 points against Washington. Easy Over call here.

ASA Top Play 10* on: #513 Sacramento Kings -2 @ Houston Rockets, 8:10 PM ET - We will back a good team in the West, the Kings, off a loss against one of the worst teams in the NBA off their first win of the season. Houston shot INSANELY well in their win over the Hornets by hitting 57% or 21 of 37 3-pointers. Going into that game the Rockets were shooting just 29.3% from deep. Houston put up 128 points but that was against a Charlotte defense that is one of the worst in the NBA. Against two comparable defenses to the Kings, the Rockets have failed to top 100 points against the Magic and Warriors. Sacramento grades out near even to the Warriors in our power ratings and Golden State was a 7-point favorite on this floor just last week. The Kings are 10th in offensive efficiency this season and 15th defensively. In comparison the Rockets are 23rd in OEFF and 27th in DEFF. Sacramento has beaten this team 6 straight times and only one of those wins was by less than 3-points. You’ll be surprised to know that the Kings are the best team in the league ATS when coming off a loss since the start of last season with a 24-14 ATS record. Lay the small points or consider the money line in the -125 range.

ASA Top Play on 10* OVER 225.5 Cleveland Cavaliers at Indiana Pacers – 7:10PM ET - This is a rematch from a game earlier this season in Cleveland where these two teams combined for 238 total points. Two things stand out from those results. 1) The Cavs had a 12-point quarter which is drastically lower than an average NBA quarter. 2) The Cavaliers played without their best player and leading scorer Donovan Mitchell who averages over 31PPG. The Pacers may be without T Haliburton here but that just means more minutes/opportunities for Aaron Nesmith who scored 26 points against this Cavs team in the first meeting. Indiana is 4th in pace of play which means they’ll want to play fast here. Cleveland is one of the slower teams, but they average 1.048 points per possession which is the 6th most efficient offense in the league. Indiana has the 2nd worst defensive efficiency rating in the NBA at 1.204 points per possession allowed. Cleveland hasn’t been as good defensively to start this season ranking 16th in DEFF. These two teams combined for 225 or more points in 4 of the last five meetings. The bet here is OVER THE TOTAL.

ASA Top Play 10* on: #559 Orlando Magic Pick'em at Utah Jazz, 9:10 PM ET - Yes, you read that correctly, we are taking the road favorite Magic tonight. Scheduling will be a factor here as the Jazz are coming off a game last night versus Memphis and also just played in Denver on the 30th. Last season when playing without rest the Jazz were 4-11 SU with a negative differential. The Magic will hold a huge advantage on the defensive end of the court as they rank 1st in the league in defensive efficiency allowing just 1.001 points per possession. The last place or 30th team in the NBA in DEFF is the Utah Jazz allowing 1.223PPP. In terms of offensive efficiency these teams are nearly identical at 1.111 points per possession. The Jazz were 16-21 SU last season off a win, and this is going to be a tough situation against a rested Magic team off a loss in their previous game. Take the better defense and back the Magic.

ASA top play 10* on: #546 Minnesota Timberwolves +3.5 vs. Denver Nuggets – 8:10 PM ET - We like the situation to back the Wolves at home here as they are coming off a loss to the Hawks and playing with revenge from last year’s playoffs series loss to Denver. Minnesota actually played well in Atlanta the other night but couldn’t overcome some hot shooting by the Hawks. Minnesota shot 49% from the field overall and 48% from beyond the Arc. Denver is 4-0 to the start the season but we’re not sold on their record as it’s come against the Lakers, Grizzlies, Thunder and Jazz. Only one of those wins comes against a team with a winning record and two of those wins are against teams with a combined 1-7 SU record. The Wolves were 22-19 SU at home last season with an average Margin of Victory of +0.9PPG while the Nuggets weren’t a great road team with a 19-22 SU record -3.1PPG. Denver may have a top 10 offensive efficiency rating this season, but the Wolves are 7th in defensive efficiency. Last season Karl-Anthony Towns missed all four regular season meetings with the Nuggets and he’ll have a big impact in this game that Minnesota has had circled since last season’s playoffs. Grab the points.

ASA top play on 10* New Orleans Pelicans -2.5 vs. Golden State Warriors, 8:10 PM ET - We were not high on the Warriors heading into the season and nothing on the court has changed that opinion. The Warriors were atrocious on the road last season with a 11-30 SU record and an average point differential of minus -4.3PPG which was 8th worst in the NBA. Tonight, they are playing the second end of a back-to-back and face a rested Pelicans team playing their second straight home game. The Pels have already beaten two playoff teams from a season ago with a 7-point win in Memphis and a 9-point home victory over the 76ers. Despite missing Zion Willamson all of last season and Brandon Ingram for a portion of the season the Pels still put together a 27-14 SU home record with an average +/- of +5PPG. Last season at home the Pelicans beat the Warriors twice, once by 9-points and once by 45. Golden State is still a marquee team and opponents ‘get up’ every time they face the Warriors and you can bet the Pelicans bring their ‘A’ game tonight. Lay the short number.

ASA top play on 10* New Orleans Pelicans -3.5 vs. NY Knicks, 7 PM ET - This is a great early season situation to back the Pelicans at home facing the unrested Knicks. New York is off a hard fought game last night in Atlanta making this the 2nd night of a back to back and 3rd game in four nights. Last night the Knicks had a tight rotation with essentially 8 players getting all the minutes so fatigue becomes a factor in this one. New Orleans got off to a great start to the season with a road win on Oct 25th in Memphis. This will be their home opener where the Pels were 27-15 SU with an average +/- of plus 4.8PPG last season. New Orleans achieved that record despite not having Zion Williamson for the season and missing Brandon Ingram for 37 games. In the season opener they had their starting five in place for the 111-104 win over Memphis where they dominated the glass with a 52-37 rebound advantage. This game has blowout written all over it. Back the Pelicans at home here.

ASA NBA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets +6.5 at Dallas Mavericks, 8:40 PM ET - We like the situation here with a Nets team off a home loss, while the Mavs are off a road win. Dallas got a 7-point win over the young San Antonio Spurs who won just 22 games a year ago. Brooklyn took a contender in the Eastern Conference down to the wire and lost by 1-point to the Cavaliers. The Nets suffered that close loss despite their best players having off nights. Mikal Bridges, Cameron Johnson and Spencer Dinwiddie led the Nets in scoring a year ago at 26.1PPG, 16.6PPG and 16.5PPG respectively. Between the 3 of them in the opener they managed just 37-total points. Those players will see a dramatic improvement in their scoring tonight seeing they just faced a Cavs team that was 1st in defensive efficiency a year ago. Dallas by comparison was 23rd in the league in DEFF a season ago. The Nets had a winning record on the road last season at 22-19 with a +/- of -1.3PPG. Dallas at home was 23-18 SU with an average Margin of Victory of +2.7PPG. Last season the Mavs were the worst home favorite in the NBA with a 10-23-2 ATS record. As an away dog the Nets were a profitable 15-11 ATS. Easy call to grab the points with Brooklyn

ASA NBA top play on 10* Philadelphia 76ers +6.5 at Milwaukee Bucks, 7:30 PM ET - Clearly this is a big marquee match up of two of the favorites to come out of the Eastern Conference this season and both have made big news in the offseason. The Bucks made a blockbuster trade and brought in Damian Lillard, the 76ers were dealing with distractions in James Harden. A great side story to this game is the new head coaches for both teams. The 76ers brought in former Raptors coach Nick Nurse (I desperately wanted the Bucks to hire him) while the Bucks hired first time head coach Adrian Griffin. Griffin was an assistant under Nurse in Toronto and won a ring in 2019. In regard to tonight’s game. The Bucks may have an adjustment period with Dame in the lineup with Giannis as you have two Alpha males that averaged over 31PPG a season ago. The 76ers played without Harden enough though so they really won’t have a tough time adjusting in this opener. The Bucks were 33-11 SU at home a season ago with an average +/- of +5.9PPG. Philadelphia had the second-best road record a year ago at 29-18 SU with a plus/minus of +2.9PPG. The Underdog covered 3 of four last year in this series as every game but one was close. In fact, the dog won 3 of the four outright. This Sixers roster is still very good with a budding star in Maxey, an MVP candidate in Embiid and solid vets as a supporting cast in Beverley, Harris and Tucker. A sneaky good addition to the roster is Kelly Oubre Jr who can be a game changer when motivated. We like the veteran coach to have the upper hand tonight in what should be a close game throughout. Grab the points.

ASA top play on 10* BOSTON CELTICS -3 at NY Knicks – 7:10 PM ET - If you missed our Futures bet article, we had the Celtics over their win total this season. The Celtics went through a major overhaul of their roster BUT the players they brought in are selfless and will conform to the Boston way much quicker than others might. That’ the genius of GM Brad Stevens who knows he had a core to get to a Championship series, he just needed a few other parts to win it all. Those key pieces are Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis. This team won’t miss a beat and will open the season with a big win over the rival Knicks. Including the playoffs, the Celtics were 31-19 SU on the road with an average +/- of +2.9PPG which was best in the league. New York pretty much stood pat with their roster in the offseason with a team that went 47-35 SU and owned the 7th best overall Margin of Victory of +2.9PPG. Boston and New York were very similar in terms of offensive efficiency with both ranking in the top 4 but defensively it wasn’t close as the Celtics finished the year 3rd in DEFF while the Knicks were 19th. The Knicks beat the C’s 3 straight in the series, all as underdogs but we like Boston to open this season with a W.

ASA NBA top play on: LA Lakers +5.5 at Denver Nuggets – 7:30PM ET - The Nuggets swept the Lakers out of the Playoffs last season, but all four games were decided by 11-points or less. Three of the four games had a final margin of 6-points or less. A couple things we know for certain tonight, which we may not know in the regular season, is that LeBron and Anthony Davis are both eager to play. Nuggets head coach Malone had some things to say about the Lakers after they swept them last season and apparently the Lakers took offense. In reality, talk is cheap, and that motivation will only last early in the game and then it’s business as usual. We do like the Lakers' improvements to their roster. Gabe Vincent gives them another playmaking guard that can shoot. Cam Reddish and Taurean Prince add to their depth along with Christian Wood. The Lakers were 20-21 SU on the road a season ago with an average plus/minus of -2.1PPG. Denver was 34-7 SU at home in the regular season with an average +/- of +9.8PPG. The Lakers made solid strides in the second half of the season, especially defensively as they finished the year allowing just 1.140-points per possession. The Nuggets lost two key components to their roster with the departure of Bruce Brown and Jeff Green while the Lakers got stronger with their additions. Don’t be surprised if LA wins this game outright.

ASA Top Play on 10* DENVER NUGGETS -8.5 vs Miami Heat, Game 5 Monday, 8:30 PM ET - The Heat have been a fantastic story this postseason after upsetting the two best teams in the East to make the Finals, but their season comes to an end tonight. Miami got some incredible contributions from a few of their role players but it’s apparent that Cinderella story has come to an end. Max Strus, Caleb Martin and Duncan Robinson have essentially disappeared in the Finals and Adebayo/Butler can only carry the load so far. Denver’s three wins in this series have all come by double-digits and in the most recent game they got a less than normal performance from their two SuperStars Murray and Jokic. With the Nuggets back at home where they are 9-1 SU in the playoffs, and currently own an average +/- of +9.9PPG on the entire season, we expect a convincing win against a team that has run out of gas. The Nugs have also won 37 of their last 42 home games.

ASA top play on 10* MIAMI HEAT +3.5 vs. Denver Nuggets, Game 4 Friday 8:30 PM ET - This is tough for me as we predicted the Nuggets in 5 games but with how the last game played out, we expect Game 4 to go down to the wire. The Nuggets adapted in Game 3 after the Heat used Jimmy Butler as the primary defender on Murray in G2 and it paid off with Jamal scoring 34-points. Now it’s Spoelstra’s turn to make an adjustment and we’re confident he will have a new dynamic in Game 4 for the Nugget to try and figure out. Denver used Jokic and Murray in an exclusive 2-man game and told the rest of the team to watch and it worked perfectly. Miami’s defense wasn’t the main culprit though as their offense failed them. The Heat shot just 37% overall and 31% from the 3-point line. In the postseason, the Heat are shooting .469% overall and .392% from beyond the arc. Miami has been the best overall 3-point shooting team in the playoffs. With their backs against the wall, we like the Miami shooters to find the range at home in this do-or-die Game 4. Miami is 17-6 SU at home off a loss this season including a 5-2 SU record in the postseason. Grab whatever points are available.

ASA NBA top play on 10* UNDER 214.5 Denver Nuggets @ Miami Heat, Game 3 Weds 8:30 PM ET - We’ve hit our two Side wagers on the first two games of this series and will now bet the Over/Under in Game 3. We like UNDER the Total and expect a lower scoring game. In the opener these two teams combined for 197 total points on 175 FG attempts. Miami had a poor shooting night and only attempted 2 FT’s in the game. In Game 2 there were only 153 field goal attempts, yet the game creeped Over the Total of 216 when 219 points were scored. The big reason that Over cashed was incredible shooting by the Heat in the 4th quarter. Miami made 7 straight FG’s to start the 4th on their way to a 36-point quarter. Both teams also shot well above expectations in Game 2 so expect a regression in Game 3. As far as the pace of play is concerned these two teams were two of the slower paced teams in the league during the regular season ranking 2nd slowest (MIA) and 8th (DEN). Both of these teams have averaged fewer possessions per game in the postseason too. The Nuggets head coach Malone and veteran Jeff Green called out their team defensively after Game 2 so expect a much better effort on that end of the court here. BET UNDER!

ASA NBA Top Play on 10* Miami Heat +8.5 vs. Denver Nuggets, Game 2 Sunday 8 PM ET - Game 1 went according to plan as the Nuggets dominated a tired Heat team and had the spread covered with 5-minutes to go in the 2nd quarter and never let the lead slip below double digits. We like Denver to win this series BUT we will grab the points in Game 2 given how Game 1 played out. The Heat lost by 11-points despite shooting just 41% overall and making 13 of 39 3-point attempts. They also attempted just 2 free throws the entire game. All of those numbers are extremely low based on what Miami has done this entire postseason. The Heat own the best 3PT% in the playoffs at .387%. They have been the 6th best overall shooting team at .468%. On average they have attempted 20 free throws per game, making on average 16.1. In Game 1 the Nuggets shot above expectations at 51% overall, made 30% of their 3’s (slightly lower than playoff average) and hit 16 of 20 FT’s. If Miami has an ‘average’ game by their playoff standards, they will keep this game within double digits. They now have extra days rest and time to get acclimated to the higher altitude of Denver. We are betting on Jimmy Butler being much better than his 13-points on 14-field goal attempts. We also expect Martin, Strus and Robinson to shoot much better from beyond the arc than they did in Game 1 when they were a combined 2 for 16. Yes, Denver has not lost at home in the postseason, but the Heat have also won 6 road games in the playoffs. This game will be much closer than the last. Grab the points.

ASA top play on 10* Denver Nuggets -8.5 vs. Boston Celtics, Game 1 Thursday, 8:30 PM ET - I was watching Game 7 of the Heat/Celtics the other night and when it became obvious that the Heat were going to win, I started immediately thinking about Game 1 of the Finals. I actually said to my wife, if the playoff sporadic Celtics were favored by 10-points at home in Game 2 of that series that suggests the Nuggets should be favored by 12 in Game 1 given the circumstances. The Heat have played a gauntlet of brutally tough games/series and now must travel to the higher altitude of Denver to face a Nuggets team that has been off 9-days. Eventually, everyone’s legs will go for the Heat as they are not that deep to begin with. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Heat “sacrifice” Game 1 to try and steal Game 2. Teams with at least 7 days of extra rest are 4-1 SU in Game 1’s. The Heat were the 4th worst 3-point shooting team in the NBA this season but have miraculously shot over 43% in their series against the Bucks and Celtics. Miami has the 23rd EFG% in the NBA at 53.2% while Denver has the best overall EFG% at 57%. Denver had the 13th best EFG% defense, Miami own’s the 23rd worst. The Nuggets are undefeated at home in the playoffs with an average +/- of +12PPG. Denver was also a much better team defensively at home this season allowing just 1.107-points per possession (5th) during the regular season. Lastly, I typically don’t talk matchups, but the Nuggets have a decisive advantage with Nikola Jokic over anyone the Heat throw at him. Adebayo can’t match him in the post and can’t exploit him defensively on the perimeter. In fact, Joker is 10-2 SU lifetime versus Adebayo. Overall, the Nuggets have won 9 of the past 10 meetings over the last 5 seasons. We like Denver BIG in Game 1.

ASA top play on Boston Celtics -7 vs. Miami Heat, Game 7 @ 7:30 PM ET - Pressure! All the pressure now sits squarely on the Miami Heat as they have blown a 3-0 lead in this series and could potentially be the first team ever to lose a playoff series in that scenario. Last time out the shooting for both teams was the storyline. Boston couldn’t make a 3-pointer as they shot just 20% from Deep. They did, however, shoot 63% on 2-pointers and made 29 of 34 FT’s. Miami on the other hand shot 47% from beyond the arc but hit just 30% from inside the line. The added value in the line is also significant in this elimination game. The three previous games between these two teams in Boston had you laying -8.5, -10 and -8.5 points. I’m betting the Celtics have another shooting game as they did in Game 5 at home when they won by 13-points. The C’s shot 41% from the 3-point line in that game and own the 6th best 3PT% in the NBA. Would we be surprised to see Miami struggle to shoot again? No! The Heat were a bad shooting team all season long ranking 26th in team FG% and 27th in 3PT%. The Celtics average margin of victory at home this season was 2nd best in the NBA at +10PPG. Miami had a road differential of -1.8PPG but have clearly played much better in the postseason. Not only that, but the Celtics have far superior defensive statistics ranking 5th in PPG allowed, 5th in opponents FG% and 4th in 3PT% defense. The Heat are 2nd in PPG given up but rank 22nd in opponents FG% and 3PT%. We like Boston at home and predict a Celtic win by 15.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 210.5 Boston Celtics @ Miami Heat Game 6 Saturday 8:30 PM ET - These two teams just shot 51% against each other and still only managed 207 total points in the last game. The reason why was the slow deliberate pace by both teams with a combined 157 field goal attempts. The field goal attempts in the first two games were below league average with 166 attempts in Game 1 and 172 in Game 2. The NBA average for FGA per game this season was 176. In Games 3 & 4 they attempted 179 and 162. During the regular season the Heat owned the 9th best defensive efficiency rating allowing just 1.135-points per possession. Boston was 3rd giving up 1.115PPP. In the Playoffs the Celtics are allowing 1.130PPP which is obviously very good, but Miami has been better yet allowing just 1.117PPP which is 4th best. Also, in the postseason both teams’ pace of play has slowed. Two big injuries will also have an impact on the total points scored by these teams. Malcom Brogdon has issues with his shooting arm and may not play. If he does how effective can he be shooting? The big loss for the Heat is Gabe Vincent who has been outstanding in the playoffs. Vincent is averaging 13.5PPG in this series and has provided Miami with another 3-point threat (11 of 22 from Deep vs. Boston) with Tyler Herro on the bench. Both defenses will play at a peak level in this game and expect both teams to favor a much slower tempo. Bet UNDER!

ASA top play on Miami Heat +8 vs. Boston Celtics, 8:30 PM ET - Boston may win this game but asking them to cover is too much. The Heat have clearly been the better team in this series overall and have largely outplayed Boston for the majority of the series. In the Celtics Game 4 win the Heat shot poorly at 44% overall and 25% from the 3-point line. The Heat had shot well in the previous 3 games by hitting over 52% from Deep in two of three games and over 46% in all three. Miami has the 2nd best average point differential in the NBA in the Playoffs at +4.7PPG which trails only the Nuggets at +8.3PPG. Miami is 5th in points allowed per possession in the postseason compared to the Celtics who rank 10th allowing 1.138PPP. Offensively the Celtics have a slight edge in the playoffs averaging 1.182-points per possession, but the Heat are right behind the at 1.170PPP. The Heat match up well with Boston which is why they’ve covered 5 of the last six meetings overall and 4 of the last five in Boston. We like the points here with Miami.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 216 Boston Celtics @ Miami Heat, 8:30 PM ET Game 4 - All three games of this series have gone Over the total. That’s somewhat surprising considering they have been below the league average in field goal attempts in 2 of three games. But hot shooting by the Heat has been the driving factor. Miami is 26th in the NBA in shooting percentage at 46% and 27th in 3-point percentage at 34.4%. In this series they shot 54%, 46% and 57% in the three games. They have also shot over 52% in two of the three games from beyond the arc. Boston had one of the best defensive efficiency ratings in the regular season, but they are giving up 1.142-points per possession in the Playoffs. Off that embarrassing Game 3 blowout I’m betting the Celtics Stars Tatum and Brown will come out firing in this elimination game. The Over has cashed in 5 of the last six meetings. The O/U line is low again so grab the value with Over.

ASA top play on 10* LA LAKERS -3 vs. Denver Nuggets – Game 4 Monday, 8:30 PM ET - We're betting there is enough pride left in the Lakers locker room to come out with a motivated effort here to avoid getting embarrassed and swept in the Playoffs. The Lakers have outplayed the Nuggets for a majority of the games but have fallen victim to big runs by the Nuggets, like the 13-0 run in the 4th quarter of last game. The key to this game is the line value. This line is where the Game 3 number should have been so now, we get to back a L.A. team at the proper number. The Lakers were 30-19 SU at home this season with an average margin of victory of nearly +5PPG. They shoot 48.1% overall at home and hold foes to 45.2%. Denver has not been a great road team this season with a 22-25 SU road record and an average differential of minus -2.1PPG. The Nuggets defense on the road has been suspect this season as they allow opponents to make 49.4% of their field goal attempts and give up 115.1PPG. As long as LeBron and Anthony Davis show up tonight we should be in a good position to win with the Lakers.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 222.5 Denver Nuggets @ LA Lakers, 8:30 PM ET Game 3 - These two teams had an incredible shooting night in Game 1 and produced 258-total points between them. Both teams shot extremely well with the Lakers hitting 46 of 84 FG attempts while the Nuggets went 50 of 91. That 55% shooting by both teams was well above both teams season averages. To go along with that shooting theme, both hit above 46% from beyond the arc. That is highly unusual for the Lakers who were 25th in the NBA in 3-point percentage this season at 34.6%. In Game 2 we got a game that was much more predictive of what these two teams really are. They combined for 211 total points on 171 field goal attempts. The Lakers came back to Earth with a 44% shooting night and 8 of 30 Game 3 from beyond the arc. Denver was close to their season averages of 44% overall and 37% from deep. This Nuggets team was 23rd in pace of play at 98.1 possessions per game during the regular season. In the postseason, the Nuggets are playing slower yet at 95.5 possessions per game. While we are on the subject of pace, the Lakers averaged 101.3 possessions per game during the regular season and are now averaging 98.8 possessions per game AND that is after playing the Grizzlies and Warriors who were 5th and 1st in pace. Defensively both teams have stepped up in the Playoffs as the Lakers are giving up just 1.077-points per possession (1st) and the Nuggets are allowing 1.106PPP which is 4th best. If you paid close attention to Game 2 then you saw what we saw which was too very fatigued teams from the intensity and higher altitude in Denver. The Lakers defense at home in the postseason has been outstanding as they have held all of their opponents to 104 or less points in regulation time. This will be another low field goal attempt game and stay UNDER the total.

ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -8.5 vs. Miami Heat, Game 2 at 8:30 PM ET - Don’t be intimidated by the number in this one. When the Heat faced the Bucks they were dogs by 9-points and 13-points in two of the games in Milwaukee. The Celtics just faced the #3 seed 76ers and were favored by -7.5, -8 and -6-points in the three home games in which Embiid played. In the two regular season meetings on this floor the Celts were favored by -9.5-points and -7-points. We’ve mentioned this several times throughout the Playoffs, but the Celtics average margin of victory at home this season was 2nd best in the NBA at +10PPG. Miami had a road differential of -1.8PPG but have clearly played much better in the postseason. Miami has some suspect offensive numbers ranking 30th in scoring, 26th in FG% and 27th in 3PT% which will make it tough to keep pace with the C’s 4th ranked scoring O, 14th best field goal percentage and 6th best 3-point percentage. Not only that, but the Celtics have far superior defensive statistics ranking 5th in PPG allowed, 5th in opponents FG% and 4th in 3PT% defense. The Heat are 2nd in PPG given up but rank 22nd in opponents FG% and 3PT%. In Game 1 the Heat caught fire (no pun intended) by hitting 54% of their FG attempts and 52% of their 3-point attempts (16 of 31). As we previously reported, that won’t continue in Game 2 as the Celtics have the 4th best 3PT% defense in the league and the Heat are 27th in the league 3PT% at 34.4%. We like Boston at home off that loss and predict a Celtic win by 15.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 227 LA Lakers @ Denver Nuggets, 8:30 PM ET Game 2 - Everyone just watched these two teams produce 258 total points in Game 1 of this series. Both teams shot extremely well with the Lakers hitting 46 of 84 FG attempts while the Nuggets went 50 of 91. That 55% shooting by both teams was well above both teams season averages. To go along with that shooting theme, both hit above 46% from beyond the arc. That is highly unusual for the Lakers who were 25th in the NBA in 3-point percentage this season at 34.6%. This Nuggets team was 23rd in pace of play at 98.1 possessions per game during the regular season. In the postseason, the Nuggets are playing slower yet at 95.5 possessions per game. While we are on the subject of pace, the Lakers averaged 101.3 possessions per game during the regular season and are now averaging 98.8 possessions per game AND that is after playing the Grizzlies and Warriors who were 5th and 1st in pace. Defensively both teams have stepped up in the Playoffs as the Lakers are giving up just 1.077-points per possession (1st) and the Nuggets are allowing 1.106PPP which is 4th best. The Lakers defense just held the Warriors to 101 or less points in 3 games of that series and should make adjustments to limit Jokic and Murray from scoring 30+. The Nuggets defense has also been outstanding allowing 109 or less points in 5 of their last eight. Don’t expect Anthony Davis to have a repeat performance of 40 points and it’s unlikely they get 40 combined from Reaves and Hachimura.

ASA top play on Boston Celtics -7.5 vs. Miami Heat, Game 1 8:30 PM ET - The value in the number tells us to back the Celtics at home in the opener. In the two games in Milwaukee that Giannis played in the Bucks were favored by 9-points and 13-points. The Celtics just faced the #3 seed 76ers and were favored by -7.5, -8 and -6-points in the three home games in which Embiid played. In the two regular season meetings on this floor the Celts were favored by -9.5-points and -7-points. These two teams split their regular season meetings with the favorite covering 3 of the four. We’ve mentioned this several times throughout the Playoffs, but the Celtics average margin of victory at home this season was 2nd best in the NBA at +10PPG. Miami had a road differential of -1.8PPG but have clearly played much better in the postseason. Miami has some suspect offensive numbers ranking 30th in scoring, 26th in FG% and 27th in 3PT% which will make it tough to keep pace with the C’s 4th ranked scoring O, 14th best field goal percentage and 6th best 3-point percentage. Not only that, but the Celtics have far superior defensive statistics ranking 5th in PPG allowed, 5th in opponents FG% and 4th in 3PT% defense. The Heat are 2nd in PPG given up but rank 22nd in opponents FG% and 3PT%. We like Boston by double-digits in the opener.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 222.5 LA Lakers @ Denver Nuggets, 8:30 PM ET Game 1 - With more money and tickets on the Over you would expect this line to go up, but it didn’t and one respected Sports Book is even carrying 222 on this game. That has us liking the Under even more coupled with our standard statistical projections. The Lakers just faced a Warriors team that was the fastest paced team in the NBA during the regular season AND was the 2nd highest in scoring and the series averaged 222.5PPG. Now the Lakers face a Nuggets team that was 23rd in pace of play a t98.1 possessions per game during the regular season. In the postseason, the Nuggets are playing slower yet at 95.5 possessions per game. While we are on the subject of pace, the Lakers averaged 101.3 possessions per game during the regular season and are now averaging 98.8 possessions per game AND that is after playing the Grizzlies and Warriors who were 5th and 1st in pace. Defensively both teams have stepped up in the Playoffs as the Lakers are giving up just 1.077-points per possession (1st) and the Nuggets are allowing 1.106PPP which is 4th best. When the Nuggets have been at home in the Playoffs thus far they have stayed Under 223 total points in 4 of six games. The Lakers defense just held a Warriors team to 101 or less points in 3 games of that series and should be up for the challenge of slowing this Nuggets team down. The Nuggets defense has also been outstanding allowing 109 or less points in 5 of their last seven. Our model projects 216 total points here.

ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -6.5 vs Philadelphia 76ers, Game 7 - We liked the Celtics to come out of the East before the Playoffs started and will back them here in this Game 7 over Philly. Examining the last game, the Celtics won despite a horrible game by Tatum. Jaylen Brown wasn’t great either with 17 points and 7 rebounds. In this situation it’s hard to back a Philadelphia team that will need a great James Harden, who has a penchant for not showing up in big games, to be just that…great. Embiid is obviously one of the best players in the game, but it will be hard for him to carry this team to the finish line. Boston had the 3rd best offensive and defensive efficiency numbers at home this season. Philly was 1st in DEFF on the road but 10th in OEFF away from home. The C’s also owned the 2nd best average Margin of Victory at home at +10PPG during the regular season and we don’t see them losing a third home game in this series to the 76ers.

ASA top play on 10* Miami Heat -5.5 vs. NY Knicks, 7:30 PM ET - We were grateful for the Knicks win in the last game of this series, but the facts of the matter are the Heat have clearly been the better team overall. The oddmakers have obviously seen what we’ve seen as they’ve bumped this line higher than the previous two games in Miami. The home team has won 4 straight with a 3-1 ATS record. Going back further the host has won 7 of the last nine meetings. The last four wins by the home team have all come by 6+ points. New York was good away from home all season long but it’s obvious the Heat have “flipped a switch” in the postseason and are playing at another level. Miami is 32-15 SU at home on the season and have won 5 straight home playoff games. Even when you factor in the play in loss to the Hawks at home the Heat have an average +/- at home in the PO’s of +9PPG. The Heat have covered 7 of the last ten meetings with the Knicks on this floor and are also on a 4-0 ATS streak when coming off a loss. Miami is the tougher team and they finish this series tonight with a double-digit win over the Knicks.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 212 Boston Celtics @ Philadelphia 76ers, 7:30 PM ET - The five games in this series have finished with 234, 208, 216, 214 (in regulation) and 218 total points. The Celtics had scored 114 or more in each game, up until the last one when they managed just 103 points. Boston had a poor shooting night in Game 5 by hitting just 40% overall and 32% from deep. Boston shoots 47.5% as a team overall and 37.7% from the 3-point line. The one game in this series that has stayed below the Total, the 76ers had an exceptionally bad shooting night at 39% overall and 20% from the 3-point line. Those numbers are not indicative of the Sixes offense this season that owned the 6th best FG% in the league at 48.7% and was 1st in 3PT% at 38.7%. These two teams ranked 3rd and 2nd in offensive efficiency with Philly averaging 1.178-ponts per possession, Boston averaged 1.181PPP. Seven of the last ten meetings between these two teams has finished with more than 214 total points. Let’s not forget, an average NBA game this season finished with 228 total points being scored so getting to 213 for these two teams shouldn’t be a problem.

ASA top play on 10* NY Knicks -3.5 vs. Miami Heat, 7:30 PM ET - We will go back to the well with the Knicks in this elimination Game 5. New York was embarrassed in Game 3 as the Heat beat them by 19-points, then in Game 4 the Heat pulled another stunning road upset of the Knicks by 8. The Knicks shot poorly in Game 3 by hitting just 34% overall and 20% from Deep. Those numbers were well below their season averages of 47% and 35.4% and came against a Miami defense that was 22nd in both FG% D and 3PT% D. In Game 4 the Knicks played well throughout most of the game until the 4th quarter when they shot just 33% for the quarter and gave up 7 offensive rebounds in the final stanza. New York was one of the best rebounding teams in the NBA at 46.6 boards per game but have been out rebounded by 11 in the last two games. We expect that to change in this do-or-die situation at home and will back the small home favorite. New York is 13-6-1 ATS this season when tabbed a favorite of 3-7-points. Miami as a dog in this same price range is 6-9 ATS.

ASA top play on 10* Denver Nuggets -5 vs. Phoenix Suns, 10 PM ET - The home team has won and covered all 4 meetings thus far in this series and we are betting that trend continues. In the first two games of this series the Nuggets dominated at home with an 18-point and 10-point win. The two games in Phoenix were relatively close and in the pivotal Game 3 the Suns won by 5-points despite shooting 57% overall and 45% from Deep. The Nuggets are 39-7 SU at home this season with an average margin of victory of +10.2PPG. Phoenix is 19-26 SU on the road this season with a negative differential of minus -0.9PPG. Denver was exceptional off a loss this season with a 10-2 SU, 8-4 ATS record at home when coming off a defeat. The Nugs have covered 6 of their last seven at home and our computer simulator has them winning this game and getting a cover in the process.

ASA top play on 10* NY Knicks +4.5 vs. Miami Heat, 7:30 PM ET - The Knicks have the right makeup to battle through adversity with a tough-minded defensive team and proven coach. New York was embarrassed in Game 3 as the Heat beat them by 19-points, but we like them to bounce back here. The Knicks shot uncharacteristically badly in Game 3 by hitting just 34% overall and 20% from Deep. Those numbers were well below their season averages of 47% and 35.4% and came against a Miami defense that was 22nd in both FG% D and 3PT% D. Miami was the benefactor of 31 free throw attempts to the Knicks 22 and the Heat made 28 of those attempts. Miami had an average +/- at home this season of just +1.2PPG which was 20th in the NBA. The Knicks average point differential on the road was 5th best in the league at +1.6PPG. This Knicks team found a way to win 2 road games in Cleveland in the 1st round and they’ll keep this game close to the final buzzer.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 214.5 Boston Celtics @ Philadelphia 76ers, 3:30 PM ET - The three games in this series have finished with 234, 208 and 216 total points. The Celtics have done their jobs offensively scoring 114 or more in each. The one game that stayed below the Total, the 76ers had an exceptionally bad shooting night at 39% overall and 20% from the 3-point line. Those numbers are not indicative of the Sixers offense this season that owned the 6th best FG% in the league at 48.7% and was 1st in 3PT% at 38.7%. James Harden has been especially bad in the last two games, scoring just 12 and 16-points after scoring 45 in Game 1. We predict James will get back on track at home in this pivotal Game 4. Embiid scored 30-points in his second game back from injury and should be even better with a couple games now under his belt. These two teams ranked 3rd and 2nd in offensive efficiency with Philly averaging 1.178-ponts per possession, Boston averaged 1.181PPP. 5 of the last eight meetings between these two teams has finished with more than 214 total points. Let’s not forget, an average NBA game this season finished with 228 total points being scored so getting to 214 for these two teams shouldn’t be a problem.

ASA top play on 10* LA Lakers -3 vs. Golden State Warriors, 8:30 PM ET - The Lakers stole Game 1 of this series with a win on the Warriors home court. Anthony Davis had a monster 30-point 23-rebound game in that road victory for L.A. In a must-win situation the Warriors pounded the Lakers by 27-points after hitting 48 of 95 field goal attempts (51%) and going 21 of 42 from beyond the Arc (50%). AD didn’t show up for the Lakers in Game 2 with 11-points and 7-rebounds. With this series shifting to Los Angeles, we like the Lakers in Game 3 and expect a regression from the Warriors and their insane Game 2 shooting. The Lakers defense was significantly better after the All-Star break as they allowed the 9th fewest points per game in the league. Much has been made in regard to the Warriors horrible road record this season of 13-32 SU away from home. During the regular season the Warriors had the 24th worst average road differential at minus -4.3PPG. To put that into perspective, it was barely better than Orlando or Charlotte. The Lakers were better than average at home during the regular season with a 23-18 SU record and an average +/- of +3.2PPG. The Lakers have covered 4 of the last five in L.A. versus the Warriors and four straight games overall when coming off a loss. We expect the Warriors road woes to continue and will support the Lakers in Game 3.

ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns -4 vs. Denver Nuggets, 10 PM ET - We actually like this game and number more with Chris Paul out of the game for the Suns. Paul is obviously a great player, but this just opens the door for KD and Booker to take over the game offensively for the Suns. Phoenix was handled in Games 1 and 2 in Denver but bounce back at home off those two embarrassing losses. KD was especially bad in Game 2 when he shot 10 of 27 overall, just 2 of 12 from Deep. As a team the Suns shot just 40% overall and 19% from beyond the Arc. We are betting they return to form offensively at home where they shot 47% overall and 38.5% from the 3-point line. As we mentioned in our previous wager on the Nuggets, they are great defensively at home but not so much on the road. Denver allowed 1.178-points per possession on the road this season which was 22nd in the NBA. They allowed opponents to shoot 49.3% when away from home and average 115.2PPG. Denver had a negative road differential of -3.1PPG which was also the 22nd worst number in the league. Phoenix was 9th in the NBA with an average margin of victory at home of plus +4.9PPG. The Suns get it done with a huge effort in this do-or-die situation and win by double-digits.

ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors -5.5 vs. LA Lakers, 9 PM ET - We had the Lakers in Game 1 but will now side with Golden State at home in Game 2 off that loss. This isn’t spread related but the home team that has lost Game 1 of the series has now won 15 straight times in Game 2 after the Celtics big win last night over Philly in this same scenario. The Warriors have been really good off a loss this season with a 18-3 SU home record, 14-7 ATS spread record. Golden State is 35-10 SU at home this season with an average Margin of Victory of +7.1PPG which is the 5th best average in the NBA. The Lakers are 22-23 SU away from home this season with a negative differential of minus -2.0PPG. L.A. won Game 1 by 5-points but also benefited from 29 free throw attempts compared to just 6 for the Warriors. The Warriors are 3-point reliant so they typically don’t shoot as many free throws as their opponents but the disparity in Game 1 will likely be more even in Game 2. The Warriors have covered 4 of their last five when coming off a loss and are in full desperation mode here. The Lakers did lose 2 of 3 games in Memphis with the two losses coming by double-digits. Back the Warriors in this one.

ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -9.5 vs Philadelphia 76ers, Game 2 - We like the Celtics to bounce back at home and get a big win to even this series at 1-1. James Harden turned back the clock in Game 1, scoring 45 points on 17 of 30 shooting. Harden has a long history of underperforming in the Playoffs and it’s unlikely he can repeat that performance. As a team the 76ers shot 51% overall and 45% from beyond the Arc. I’m betting the Celtics defense will adjust and run the Sixers off the 3-point line in G2. Boston was the 3rd best defensive efficiency team in the NBA this season allowing just 1.115-points per possession. The C’s also owned the 2nd best average Margin of Victory at home at +10PPG during the regular season. Philly had some impressive road numbers but without Embiid they are not the same team. Boston is 19-9 SU off loss this season 10-5 SU at home. We like Boston big in this one.

ASA top play on 10* LA Lakers +4.5 vs. Golden State Warriors, 10 PM ET - The Warriors are off an emotional and physical 7-game series against the Kings which just finished on Sunday. Kerr relied heavily on his starters in that game with three (Curry, Wiggins and Green) all logging 37+ minutes. The Lakers have been off since Friday and will be well rested for this series opener. Los Angeles stole Game 1 from Memphis in the previous series and are more than capable of getting a W here. We will disregard the season statistics of the Lakers as they have been much better since the trade deadline, especially defensively. Since the All-Star Break the Lakers are allowing just 110.6PPG which is 7th best in the NBA. The Warriors are allowing an average of 113.7PPG which is 14th. The Warriors have been slightly better offensively since the ASB scoring 118.8PPG compared to 116.2PPG for L.A. The Warriors have great home numbers but given the circumstances of short rest versus the Laker 3-days rest we have to grab the points with the Underdog. The Lakers have won 3 of four meetings this season and 4 of the last six.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 227 Phoenix Suns @ Denver Nuggets Game 2 Monday, 10 PM ET - The O/U on game 1 of this series was the same Total it is here at 227.5 and the two teams combined for 232-points. We expect another similar outcome in Game 2. These two teams combined for 185 field goal attempts in the opener which is 9 more than the regular season average for the entire NBA. Phoenix has the 7th best 3PT% in the league but connected on just 7 of 23 attempts for 30%. The Nuggets scored 125 points on 48% shooting and 43% from beyond the arc. We don’t expect a dramatic change in Denver’s output but do expect the Suns to score more. Phoenix did average 113.6PPG on the year and rated the 13th best offensive efficiency. Phoenix is on a strong 7-1-1 Over streak their last 9 games, Denver is over 4 of their last 5 overall. The last five meetings between these two teams has averaged 244PPG. This game isn’t getting to that number, but based on pace and efficiency ratings this game goes OVER the Total.

ASA NBA top play 10* on NY Knicks -4 vs. Miami Heat, 1 PM ET - We have waited patiently for the perfect opportunity to release a big play of this magnitude and today’s the day. The Miami Heat are coming off a stunning first round upset of the #1 seed Milwaukee Bucks. Jimmy Butler and head coach Erik Spoelstra carried the Heat to that series victory but now must face a very underrated Knicks team that is also coming off a big opening series win over the Cavaliers. Miami was one of the worst offensive efficiency teams in the league this season, ranking 25th. Butler cannot sustain his round 1 numbers of 37.6PPG against a Knicks team that is allowing just 1.031-points per possession in the Playoffs. Butler and the Heat don’t have the benefit of facing the Bucks head coach Budenholzer who is incapable of making adjustments in series. Tom Thibodeau of the Knicks is one of the best defensive minds in the NBA and he will have a game plan in place to limit Butler and force someone else to beat them. Let’s not under appreciate the Knicks round 1 domination over a very good Cavs team. The Knicks held the Cavs to 94.2PPG and both home wins were by 9 and 20-points. Miami was 30th in the league in scoring this season, 26th in FG% and 27th in 3PT%. The Knicks offensively were much better, and they have a defense that was 13th in PPG allowed, 3rd in opponents FG% and 12th in 3PT%. The biggest advantage the Knicks will have in this game and the series is rebounding. The Knicks were 8th in defensive rebounding this season, the Heat were 25th. New York was 3rd in offensive rebounding this season, the Heat were 23rd. Cleveland had comparable rebounding numbers as the Heat and the Knicks outrebounded them by a total of 41 rebounds. In the regular season the Knicks won 3 of four with the Heat and have covered 4 of the last five meetings. Lay the points!

ASA top play on 10* Denver Nuggets -3 vs Phoenix Suns, 8:30 PM ET - We are going to tread lightly with Game 1 of this series but do like the Nugget enough to make a small wager on them here. The Nuggets are 37-7 SU at home this season with an average +/- of +9.8PPG. Phoenix wasn’t a great road team this season with a 17-24 SU record in the regular season with a +/- of minus -0.7PPG. Granted, they didn’t have Kevin Durant for the majority of those games, but they still clearly underperformed away from home. Denver had the 2nd best offensive efficiency rating in the NBA at home at +1.205-points per possession. Overall, they weren’t a great defensive team, but when at home they were very good ranking 5th in DEFF allowing just 1.108PPP. Again, Phoenix was in the 12th and 13th in road OEFF and DEFF so good, but not elite. In the opener we like the home team minus the points.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 235.5 Sacramento Kings vs. Golden State Warriors, 8 PM ET - The Kings were one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA this season allowing 1.169-points per possession which ranked 25th. In the playoffs they are allowing just 1.130PPP which is 11th best. What makes those numbers even more impressive is the fact they are facing the Warriors and one of the best offenses in the league. During the regular season the Warriors O averaged 1.164PPP which was 8th. The Kings offensive efficiency numbers have dropped in the postseason also going from 1.195PPP to 1.100PPP. De’Aaron Fox who has a fractured finger on his shooting hand was not 100% in Game 5, but still managed 24 points on 9 of 25 shooting. Fox has scored 27% of the Kings points in the playoffs and clearly didn’t shoot it well last time out. These two teams combined for 239 total points in Game 5 which barely crept over the number in the late stages of that game. We expect both defenses to rise to the occasion tonight and predict a game in the mid-220’s.

ASA Top Play on 10* Boston Celtics -6.5 vs Atlanta Hawks, 8:30 PM ET - We expect the Celtics to close this series out tonight in Atlanta. The Hawks won in Boston last time out and did it by shooting 47% overall and 46% from beyond the arc. Trae Young had a monster night with 38-points on 14 of 33 shooting. Boston has enjoyed a huge advantage with points in the paint this series and we full expect them to exploit that advantage again in this potential elimination game. The Celtics rank 4th in PPG scored, 14th in team FG%, 6th in 3PT% and 7th in rebounding. The Hawks have similar offensive numbers ranking 3rd in PPG, 9th in FG%, 21st in 3PT% and 10th in rebounding. The big separator comes defensively with the Celtics ranking 5th or better in PPG allowed, FG% D and 3PT% D. Atlanta allows the 26th most PPG, rank 25th in opponents FG% and 10th in 3PT%. Boston has done well when coming off a loss this season with a 18-9 SU overall record, 8-4 on the road. All 3 of the C’s wins in this series have come by 8 or more points. That trend continues here.

ASA top play on 10* Memphis Grizzlies -4 vs. LA Lakers, 7:30 PM ET - We like the home team to get a double-digit win in this critical Game 5. The Lakers reputation has impacted this number and we will gladly take the better team all season long at home with this short price. Memphis was 35-6 SU at home in the regular season with the best average margin of victory at +10.6PPG. Of their 35 home wins, only 1 came by less than 3-points. The Lakers were 20-21 SU on the road this regular season with the 18th worst average differential at minus -2.1PPG. These two teams have met seven times this season with the home team winning six and all but one of those wins came by more than tonight’s spread. Memphis was 15th in offensive efficiency this season and the Lakers were 21st. Defensively, the Grizzlies were 2nd in defensive efficiency, the Lakers were 12th. Memphis was up 7 points with just over 5 minutes to play in Game 4 and couldn’t close the game out. Memphis is 12-4 SU at home off a loss. Tonight, at home they will get it done.

ASA top play on UNDER 224.5 LA Clippers @ Phoenix Suns, 10 PM ET - The Clippers really struggled offensively in Game 4 at home without Kawhi Leonard and it’s not going to get any better tonight. Even with Russell Westbrook pouring in 37-points the Clippers as a team managed just 100. The average field goal attempts in an NBA game this season was 176 and these two teams have attempted 176 or less in all four games. In the regular season the Suns were the 9th slowest paced team in the league at 98.2 possessions per game. The Clippers were the 7th slowest at 97.9. Thus far in the Playoffs these two teams are averaging 96.3 possessions per game which ranks 12th and 13th out of 16 playoff teams. The Suns get a lot of attention for their offense but in reality it’s their defense that deserves the credit. They rank 6th in points allowed per game, 6th in FG% defense and 11th in 3PT% D. The Clippers weren’t on that level but still allowed just 113.1PPG which was 12th best in the NBA. The first two games of this series finished with 225 and 232 total points but Leonard had 69 of those points. Without him here this game doesn’t get to 224.

ASA top play on 10* Milwaukee Bucks -5.5 vs. Miami Heat, 7:30 PM ET - The winner of this series will be the team that is the healthiest. Right now, that team is the Bucks, even with Giannis questionable tonight. Our insiders suggest that he will play tonight, even if he doesn’t, we like Milwaukee. The Heat lost Tyler Herro to a broken hand and just lost Victor Oladipo to a knee injury. That doesn’t seem like a big injury, but it will have an impact on their depth at the guard position. Jimmy Butler also went down with a lower back injury, and we expect him to play tonight but he certainly won’t be 100%. Most importantly for this game is the fact that the Bucks are really good when coming off a loss with a 19-7 SU record and a +4.2PPG average MOV. The Bucks had the second-best road record in the NBA this season at 26-16 SU, +0.9PPG. Miami did have a solid home record of 27-14 SU during the regular season but their average +/- was just +1.2PPG. The Heat really struggled offensively against good teams as they averaged just 109.8PPG which was 28th in the league. Milwaukee is a much deeper team and will find a way to get this ‘must win’ on the road in Miami.

ASA NBA top play on 10* Sacramento Kings +7.5 vs. Golden State Warriors, 3:30 PM ET - We were on the Warriors in Game 3 but will flip and side with the Kings in Game 4. This line is inflated and value currently sides with the Kings when you evaluate the lines from the first two games. Granted, Draymond Green is back but the move in the line is too drastic. Sacramento shot just 38% from the field in Game 3, 23% from Deep. Those numbers are uncharacteristically low for the Kings who were 1st in scoring this season 2nd in overall FG% shooting and 9th in 3PT%. After jumping out to a 2-0 lead in the series it was only natural for them to come back to Earth in Game 3. Now we have a solid number, a team that was 21-13 SU off a loss this season and had the 4th best average road differential at +2.1PPG. Sacramento was the better team all season long and have covered 11 of the last 14 meetings in Golden State. This will be closer than the oddsmakers think.

ASA top play on 10* LA Lakers -4 vs. Memphis Grizzlies, 10 PM ET - I think if you’ve followed us for any length of time you can guess how we feel about the Lakers and LeBron. If you haven’t, let’s just say we aren’t big fans. But that doesn't impact our handicapping and tonight we have to back the Lakers at home minus the short number. This series is tied 1-1 and Anthony Davis and LeBron haven’t even played that well. Back at home in Game 3 we expect big games from both of these Super Stars. Since the trade deadline the Lakers have been much better, especially defensively as they have allowed just 111.8PPG which is 8th best in the NBA. Over that same period of time, they have an average +/- of nearly +5PPG. Memphis has struggled on the road this season with a 16-25 SU record and an average point differential of minus -2.7PPG. The Lakers don’t have a great home record of 24-18 SU but they do have a solid +/- of +3.3PPG. The home team has covered 4 of the last five meetings and we expect that trend to carry over here. Lay the points.

ASA top play on NY Knicks -115 vs. Cleveland Cavaliers, 8:30 PM ET - We love the situation here to back the home team Knickerbockers minus the short number. After winning Game 1 of this series, the Knicks lost badly in Game 2 by 17-points. In Game 1 most numbers were pretty even for both teams, but the Knicks enjoyed a +13 rebound night which was the difference. Game 2 saw the Cavs out-board the Knicks by 7 but the big separator was shooting as the Cavs hit 49% overall and 42% from beyond the arc. New York shot just 37% overall and 24% from Downtown. The Knicks will get great support at home tonight where they were 23-18 SU on the season with a +/- of +4.3PPG on the year. Cleveland was 20-21 SU away from home with an average margin of victory of +2.6PPG. If we look at the season series the Knicks won 3 straight after a loss way back in October. Two of those wins were by double-digits. The Cavs were just 4-9 ATS as a dog of less than +4.5 points, while the Knicks were 11-9 ATS as a favorite of -4.5-points or less. New York has won 10 of their last twelve at home and we expect them to win this game by a comfortable margin.

ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors -5.5 vs. Sacramento Kings, 10 PM ET - It’s well documented that Golden State is 11-32 SU on the road with an average +/- of minus -4.3PPG which was 24th in the NBA, so while I’m surprised, they are down 0-2 I’m not shocked. The venue changes though and now the Warriors are at home where they had the 5th best average MOV at +8.0PPG with a 33-8 SU record. Consider this, the Warriors were 17th in defensive efficiency this season allowing 1.108PPP, but at home they rank 4th allowing 1.060PPP. Golden State was 9th overall in OEFF and had the 9th best overall OEFF at home but there was an improvement from 1.123PPP to 1.137PPP. Golden State has covered 4 of their last six games when coming off a loss and own a 17-3 SU home record when off a beat. These two teams have similar offensive statistics, but the Warriors are much better defensively when it comes to FG% D (9th), 3PT% D (18th) and points allowed per game (21st). Compare those standings with the Kings that ranked 29th, 26th and 25th in that same order. The Kings held an edge in FT’s at home 47-36 with +16 more attempts. That changes with the Warriors now the home team. Golden State has covered 37 of their last 51 home games against a team with a winning road record. Even without Draymond Green we like the Warriors by double-digits in this one.

ASA top play on 10* Memphis Grizzlies +1.5 vs. LA Lakers, 7:30 PM ET - The Grizzlies are undervalued here by our metrics, even without Ja Morant in the lineup and we like the home team to get a win in Game 2 and even the series. In Game 1 the Lakers got some huge contributions from Hachimura and Reaves who chipped in 29 and 23 points respectively. The Lakers shot unusually well at 53% overall and 43% from beyond the arc which are both well above their season averages. Not to mention, the Grizzlies had the #1 ranked FG% defense and 9th best 3PT% defense in the league this year. Expect a return to normal in Game 2. The Lakers reputation has impacted this number and we will gladly take the better team all season long at home with this short price. Memphis is 35-7 SU at home this season with the best average margin of victory at over +10PPG. Of their 35 home wins, only 1 came by less than 3-points. The Lakers are 21-21 SU on the road this season with the 18th worst average differential at minus -2.1PPG. These two teams met three times during the regular season with the home team winning all three. Memphis was 15th in offensive efficiency this season and the Lakers were 21st. Defensively, the Grizzlies were 2nd in defensive efficiency, the Lakers were 12th. Memphis has covered 6 of the last 9 meetings with the Lakers at home. Grab the home team!

ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns -7.5 vs LA Clippers, 10 PM ET - The Clippers played as well as they could in the opener and stole Game 1 in Phoenix. Tonight, we are betting the Suns will bounce back with a double-digit home win. Statistically the game was very even with the exception being offensive rebounding. The Clippers grabbed 15 O-Boards compared to just 6 for the Suns. These two teams were similar offensively when it comes to efficiency ratings this season with the Suns 14th and the Clippers 16th. In defensive efficiency the Suns ranked much better in defensive efficiency at 7th compared to the Clippers at 17th. The Suns got off to a slow start in G1 but expect a different mindset to open Game 2. Phoenix had the 7th best 3PT% numbers in the league this season without Kevin Durant playing many games for them and they should exploit a Clippers defense that was 19th in opponents 3PT% defense. Lay it with Phoenix.

ASA top play on Golden State Warriors -1 @ Sacramento Kings, 10 PM ET - We are not neglecting the fact Golden State was 11-31 SU on the road with an average +/- of minus -4.3PPG which was 24th in the NBA. It looked to us like the Warriors went into Game 1 of this series with the mentality of just showing up would be good enough to win the game. The Kings on the other hand played at an incredible level throughout the game and were inspired by the energy from their home crowd. DeAaron Fox had a monster game for the Kings with 38-points and 5-assists. Malik Monk chipped in with 32 and went 14 of 14 from the free throw line. As a team the Kings shot 45% overall, 38% from 3 and made 26 of 32 FT’s. Despite playing at a high level the Warriors still had several great looks late in the game that could have sent it to OT. A Championship team like the Warriors will respond after that loss. Golden State has covered 4 of their last five games when coming off an “L”. These two teams have similar offensive statistics but the Warriors are much better defensively when it comes to FG% D (9th), 3PT% D (18th) and points allowed per game (21st). Compare those standings with the Kings that ranked 29th, 26th and 25th in that same order. We mentioned the Warriors poor regular season road number but also note the Kings are 4-7 SU with a negative +/- of -5.3PPG as a home underdog. Elite teams bounce back off a loss! Back the Warriors.

ASA top play on 10* Memphis Grizzlies -3.5 vs. LA Lakers, 3 PM ET - The Grizzlies are undervalued here by our metrics and we like the home team to get a double-digit win in the opener. The Lakers reputation has impacted this number and we will gladly take the better team all season long at home with this short price. Memphis was 35-6 SU at home this season with the best average margin of victory at +10.6PPG. Of their 35 home wins, only 1 came by less than 3-points. The Lakers were 20-21 SU on the road this season with the 18th worst average differential at minus -2.1PPG. These two teams met three times this season with the home team winning all three. Memphis was 15th in offensive efficiency this season the Lakers were 21st. Defensively, the Grizzlies were 2nd in defensive efficiency, the Lakers were 12th. Memphis has covered 6 of the last 8 meetings with the Lakers at home. Lay the points!

ASA top play on 10* Sacramento Kings Pick'em vs. Golden State Warriors, 8:30 PM ET - This is one of those fishy lines the oddsmakers will set to bait you into betting the media team such as the Warriors. Who isn’t betting the Warriors as a pick’em against the downtrodden Kings? The facts of the matter are this. The Kings have been the better team all season long and everyone has been waiting for the Warriors to ‘flip the switch’ and be great this season but it hasn’t happened. Golden State was 11-30 SU on the road with an average +/- of minus -4.3PPG which was 24th in the NBA which was barely better than Orlando. Sacramento was 23-18 SU at home on the season with a +3.2PPG MOV. Both teams are good offensively with the Kings holding the #1 rated offensive efficiency numbers at 1.195PPP while the Warriors were 8th. Golden State held the season long advantage in defensive efficiency but they still ranked 18th compared to the Kings at 25th. The Kings may not win the series but we expect them to open up with a win in Game 1.

ASA NBA top play on 10* Chicago Bulls +6 over Miami Heat, 7 PM ET - I have had a hard time trusting Miami all season long and I’m certainly not going to back them here. Its not a coincidence that after any extended period of time teams with Jimmy Butler eventually regress which is the current state in Miami. This Heat team had a net point differential of -0.3PPG on the season which was 21st in the league. Miami was 27-14 SU at home but their +/- on their home court was +1.2PPG which was 20th and only better than the Wolves of all the playoff teams. In comparison the Bulls had a average margin of victory of +1.3PPG overall which was 13th best in the league. On the road the Bulls +/- was -0.3PPG which was 7th best in the NBA. Chicago has won all three meetings this season and all 3 wins have come by 8+ points. Grab the points with Chicago and expect another game to the wire.

ASA top play on 10* Chicago Bulls +5.5 @ Toronto Raptors, 7 PM ET - This is a great spot to grab the points with the Bulls in this match up and an outright win would not surprise us. These two teams have very similar offensive and defensive efficiency numbers on the season with the Raptors slightly better offensively, but the Bulls have an edge defensively. When it comes to home/road numbers we like the fact that the Bulls had the 7th best average margin of victory on the road in the NBA at -0.3PPG. Toronto was 27-14 SU at home on the season but their average point differential was +4.7PPG which won’t get a cover for them here. After the All-Star break the Bulls have allowed just 107.9PPG which is the best number in the league. Chicago has also averaged 113.2PPG since the break which is significantly better than the 111.7PPG the Raptors have averaged. The Bulls have shot 50% since the ASB, Toronto has shot .464%. That ties in nicely with the Bulls having an advantage offensively with the 4th best overall shooting offense in the league going up against a Raptors D that is 27th in FG% defense. This is a great chance to back a defensive dog and a little moneyline action might be worth a shot in this one.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 226.5 Atlanta Hawks @ Miami Heat, 7:30 PM ET - Let’s start with the average NBA total points scored in a game this regular season which was 228.6 points per game. We don’t see this game being ‘average’ based on several factors. We will start with the Hawks defense that is 22nd in the league in defensive efficiency ratings allowing 1.164-points per possession. That is the second worst of all the playoff teams (Kings are 25th). Since the All-Star break the Hawks have given up 121.7PPG. They rank 26th in PPG allowed, 25th in opponents FG%, but are 10th in 3PT%. The Hawks are also 19th in defensive rebounding. The Hawks beat teams by out-scoring them. Atlanta was 7th in offensive efficiency at 1.167PPP and were the 9th fastest paced team in the league. Since the break they have averaged 123.7PPG. Miami has gone through their struggles offensively this season, but they are clearly trending up to end the season. Prior to the All-Star break they were the lowest scoring team in the NBA at 108.3PPG. Since the break that average has jumped to 112.4PPG. In their last five games the Heat have the 1.251PPP which is the second highest average in the league behind the Warriors. Miami is known for their defense, but they haven’t been as good on that end of the court this season as they’ve been in past years. Case in point, last season the Heat were 5th in defensive efficiency rating allowing 1.091PPP. This season the Heat are allowing 1.135PPP. It all adds up to a higher scoring game tonight.

ASA NBA Top Play 10* New Orleans +3.5 vs Minnesota Timberwolves, 3:30 PM ET - This game has meaning for both clubs and we like the advantage the Pelicans have in the schedule and how they are playing overall at this time. Minnesota is coming off a game yesterday and even though they have winning record at 8-5 SU when playing without rest, their average margin of victory in those games is 1-point, which is not enough for a cover here. New Orleans is on a solid 9-2 SU streak with several impressive wins on that resume including New York, Memphis, the Clippers twice and Denver. The Pelicans have won 4 of their last five road games. These two teams have some similar statistics offensively, but defensively the Pelicans hold the advantage and that will be the difference in today’s game. The Wolves +/- at home this season was 22nd in the league at +0.8PPG. The Pelicans had the 10th best road differential at 1.1PPG. This visiting team has covered 7 of the last eight meetings in this series and 8 of the last ten. Grab the points and the Pels.

ASA NBA top play on 10* UNDER 230 Portland Trailblazers @ LA Clippers, 4 PM ET - Both teams have games again tomorrow so it’s highly unlikely they are going to let this game turn into a fast-paced game. Especially the Clippers who still have seed positioning to play for AND need to manage minutes for older players such as Kawhi. This line is clearly too high as the Blazers just faced a Spurs team that is one of the fastest paced teams in the NBA and one of the worst defensively and that total was 227. The Clippers are the 7th slowest paced team in the league and are around average in defensive efficiency. Portland has 14 players on their injury report as of today and are basically trotting out a G-league team. The Blazers offense has been hit hardest as they’ve scored 96 or less points in 3 of their last eight games and outside of one high scoring game against the Spurs, have averaged 101PPG in 7 of their last 8. With the Clippers content to get a win without exerting themselves we can’t see this game getting into the 230’s.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 228.5 Houston Rockets @ Charlotte Hornets, 7 PM ET - This is going to be a glorified AAU game and we don’t expect either team to play any defense in this one. The Rockets have given up 120 or more points in 6 of their last nine games and 130+ in three of those. Charlotte has been equally as bad allowing 120 or more in 4 straight games and an average of 126PPG in those four games. Houston ranks 28th in points allowed per game at 118.8, 22nd in opponents FG% and 28th in 3PT% defense. Charlotte ranks 22nd in PPG allowed at 117.5 per game, 19th in FG% defense and 13th in 3PT% D. The most critical defensive metric though is defensive efficiency as the Rockets are 29th in the NBA allowing 1.197PPP, while the Hornets are 20th at 1.158PPP. Charlotte has been one of the faster paced teams in the NBA all season long and the Rockets have picked up their tempo in their last five games. With nothing left to play for these two teams won’t expend any energy on the defensive end of the court and it will lead to a high scoring game.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 220.5 Miami Heat @ Philadelphia 76ers, 7:30 PM ET - This game has a playoff feel as both teams could use a win here as they jockey for a better playoff position. Miami needs a win to lock in a spot in the postseason party and avoid a play-in situation. With a win the other night over Boston the Sixers still have a shot at catching the Celtics as the 2nd seed. It starts with defense for both teams as they rank 8th and 9th in defensive efficiency ratings. Both teams play slow too, with Miami ranking as the 2nd slowest team in the NBA at 96 possessions per game, the Sixers are the 4th slowest. Philly is one of the most efficient offenses in the league but Miami is 25th. A big reason why the 76ers rank so high in OEFF is Joel Embiid. Embiid has struggled against the Heat averaging just 21.3PPG in the last six meetings which is well below his season average of 33.2PPG. In the two meetings this season between these two teams they’ve produced 215 and 200 total points. We expect another Under here.

ASA top play on 10* Dallas Mavericks -5 vs. Sacramento Kings, 8:40 PM ET - We went against the Kings last night and lost but will come right back with a play against them again here. This will be the Kings 2nd game of a back-to-back and 3rd game in 4 days. Last night they unexpectedly played hard against the Pelicans but reports are that head coach Mike Brown came down on them hard after a loss in their previous game. Now that he made his point, and they have nothing to play for, don’t expect them to put forth a max-effort here. Dallas is in desperation mode after 3 straight losses to playoff teams from the East. The Mavs are currently in a battle with the Thunder for the 10th and final play-in spot in the West with just 3 games remaining. These two teams have met twice already this season splitting both games played in Sac-Town. Luka and Kyrie are both expected to play on Wednesday night, and even though they haven’t meshed on the court at the same time they are still two dynamic players that can carry their team in this do-or-die situation.

ASA top play on 10* New Orleans Pelicans -2 vs. Sacramento Kings, 8 PM ET - This game has huge implications for the Pelicans who are in a battle for the 7th seed in the West, while the Kings sit comfortably in 3rd. Granted the Kings mathematically have a shot to catch Memphis for the 2nd seed, but they can’t get caught by Phoenix and the 3 seed may be a better option in the West. The Pelicans on the other hand would host as a 7 seed and would have a clear advantage come playoff time. That’s not the only reason we like New Orleans here as they are playing well right now having won 7 of their last 8 games. That stretch of success includes three quality wins over the Clippers (twice) and Nuggets. The Pelicans suffered through several key injuries this season but are now mostly healthy and playing at the level everyone predicted they could play at. Since the All-Star break the Pel are allowing the least amount of points in the NBA at 108.3PPG and have a +/- of +4PPG. The Kings have been a great story all season, but their lack of defense will be their demise in the playoffs. The Kings rank 23rd for the season in defensive efficiency ratings allowing 1.167PPP. Since the All-Star break Sacramento is giving up 120.3PPG which is the 25th most in the NBA. Even with significant injuries the Pelicans still hold the 8th best average net point differential at home this season at +5.5PPG with a 25-13 SU record. The home teams has won 4 of the last five meetings and we are betting that trend continues here.

ASA Top Play on 10* OVER 234 Golden State Warriors @ Denver Nuggets, 8:40 PM ET - You will want to watch the pregame injury report and confirm Nikola Jokic is in the lineup for the Nuggets before making this wager. The Warriors are going to play small ball here and use Draymond Green at the Center position. That means they are planning a fast-paced game and will push tempo. Golden State is the fastest paced team in the league at 101.7 possessions per game. They are 3rd in scoring at 118.3PPG. They should score at will against this Nuggets defense that is barely above average in defensive efficiency and rank 20th in opponents FG% against. Denver doesn’t play fast but they are highly efficient offensive with the 3rd best OEFF rating in the NBA at 1.180PPP. Golden State has historically been a great defensive team but that hasn’t been the case this season as they check in as the 19th worst defensive efficiency team allowing 1.149PPP. The Nuggets will put up points with their 10th scoring offense and the #1 ranked FG% unit at 50.6% and 2nd ranked 3PT% offense at 38.4%. In the two clashes between these two teams this season they have produced total points of 251 twice. We expect another high scoring game today.

ASA top play on 10* Philadelphia 76ers +5.5 @ Milwaukee Bucks, 8:10 PM ET - There is one negative with this bet and that’s the fact the Bucks are coming off a humiliating loss at home to the Celtics and we typically shy away from this type of situation. We will make an exception here as we get a live dog in Philly that is every bit as good as Milwaukee and can certainly come out of the East. Milwaukee has a 30-8 SU home record this season but the 76ers are 23-15 SU away. The Sixers own the best average margin of victory on the road in the NBA at +3.8PPG. They have the best offensive efficiency rating on the road and 11th best DEFF. Milwaukee has an average +/- at home of +6.8PPG but that should be higher based on their SU record. We like the fact that the Bucks have struggled recently with the good teams they’ve played with a 1-8 ATS record their last nine games against teams with an above .600 winning percentage. When facing one of the top 8 teams in the Eastern Conference the Bucks have a +0.4PPG differential, the 76ers are better at +1.8PPG. 4 of the last five meetings have been decided by 3-points or less, all five have been decided by 8-points or less. We expect another close game and will grab the points.

ASA NBA top play on 10* UNDER 227 LA Clippers @ New Orleans Pelicans, 8:30PM ET - These two teams just met last Tuesday in L.A. with the game finishing with 241 total points. The O/U number on the game was 225 so we are getting a little extra value here. There were a few anomalies in that game as the Pelicans shot extremely well at 53% overall and they made 21 of 34 3-pointers or 62%. Those percentages were well above their season averages of 48% FG% and 36.3% 3PT%. The Clippers also had an above average shooting night at 52% overall and 45% from beyond the arc. Again, both of those numbers are well above the Clippers 47.6% FG% and 38.2% 3PT%. The Clippers are about average in defensive efficiency at 1.143-points per possession allowed while the Pelicans are 5th best. In their most recent 5-games the Pels have the best PPP allowed at 1.019PPP. Prior to the hot shooting game in the previous meeting the 4 clashes prior between these two teams all resulting in 219 or less points. Bet UNDER here.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 232.5 LA Lakers @ Minnesota Timberwolves, 8:10 PM ET - If the Playoffs where to start today this would be the 7/8 matchup play in game. In a playoff like atmosphere for both teams we like the defenses to rise to the occasion. Prior to the All-Star Break the Lakers were 25th in points allowed per game, giving up 118.2 per. The Timberwolves were better allowing 115.8PPG. Los Angeles has improved dramatically since the trade deadline and are giving up just 111PPG which is 6th best in the league. Minnesota has slipped slightly allowing 116.5PPG. Both teams were scoring more prior to the break too. The Lakers rank 11th in defensive efficiency on the season while the Wolves are 10th giving up just 1.139-points per possession. Both teams prefer to play up-tempo, but recently (in their last five games) each team has slowed significantly in pace of play. Both teams are near average or below in offensive efficiency. These two teams have met twice this season and produced total points of 212 and 213. This game won’t be that low but it will be around 222.

ASA top play on 10* New Orleans Pelicans +7.5 @ Denver Nuggets, 10 PM - We will try our hand with the Pelicans again tonight as a big dog in Denver. The Pelicans had won 5 straight games before blowing a game in Golden State on Tuesday. New Orleans led by 20-points in that game before succumbing to the Warriors in an 11-point loss. The Nuggets have won 4 straight and are coming off a big win over the 76ers on Tuesday night. Denver has a 3-game lead over the Grizzlies for the top spot in the West so they don’t have the sense of urgency the Pelicans have who sit 8th. Denver has one of the best offenses in the NBA but are average in terms of defensive efficiency. The Pels on the other hand have been very good defensively allowing 1.124-points per possession which rank 5th best in the league. These two teams met in late January with the Nuggets winning two tight games by 1-point and by 9-points. Brandon Ingram for the Pels did not play in either of those games which makes a big difference here. Grab the points.

ASA top play on 10* NY Knicks -4 vs. Miami Heat, 7:30 PM ET - This is a great spot to back the Knicks AND fade the Heat. Miami is coming off a big game last night in Toronto and now face a rested Knicks team in New York. Not to mention these same two rivals just met in South Beach last week with the Heat winning 127-120 as a +2-point dog. The Knicks may be without Jalen Brunson, but the Heat are without Jimmy Butler. The Knicks rate advantages both offensively and defensively over the Heat, especially on the offensive end of the court. Miami is 30th in scoring, 26th in shooting and 27th in 3PT%. In comparison the Knicks are 14th in scoring, 3rd in team FG% and 9th in 3PT%. New York has a +4.3PPG average differential at home, the Heat have a negative -2.4PPG differential away from home. In this quick rematch we like the home team by double-digits.

ASA top play on 10* New Orleans Pelicans +9.5 vs Golden State Warriors, 10 PM ET - We have had a tough time figuring this Pelicans team out at times this season but today is a perfect opportunity to back them as a sizable dog. New Orleans has quietly gone on a 5-game winning streak and have 7 W’s in their last 10 games. They recently beat the Clippers in LA as a +5-point dog. The Pelicans are 13-24 SU on the road this season but their average point differential away from home is a respectable minus -2.4PPG. Golden State is clearly one of the best home teams in the NBA at 30-8 SU with a +7.6PPG differential, but that number is down from last year’s number of +9.9PPG. The last time these teams met in early March, the Warriors were favored by -5-points and won by 9. Golden State has slipped defensively this season as they allow 117.7PPG which ranks them 23rd. The Pelicans defense gives up 112.7PPG which ranks them 12th. This is an inflated pointspread and the value clearly lies with the underdog Pelicans.

ASA top play on UNDER 224.5 Chicago Bulls @ LA Clippers, 10:40 PM ET - The Bulls are coming off a big upset win over the Lakers on Sunday which makes this the 2nd night of a back-to-back. This is also their 3rd game in 4 days and 4th in 6. The Clippers meanwhile are coming off a home loss to the Pelicans on Saturday night. New Orleans shot ridiculously well overall by hitting 53% from the field and by making 21 of 34 3-pointers. Those numbers are clearly an anomaly as the Clippers are solid defensively. While we are on the subject of defense, the Bulls allow the 7th fewest points per game this season, rank 6th in opponents FG% and 11th in 3PT% defense. Offensively neither team is great with the Bulls ranking 20th in scoring at 113.4PPG and the Clippers 23rd at 112.8PPG. The Clippers have stayed Under at home in 19 of their last 26 games when facing a team with a sub .500 record. The Bulls are 4-1 to the Under when playing without rest and those games have averaged 218PPG. When these teams met in late January, they produced just 211 total points. Expert another UNDER here.

ASA top play on 10* Orlando Magic -2 vs Brooklyn Nets, 6:10 PM ET - The Orlando Magic catch the Nets in a favorable scheduling situation as Brooklyn is playing the 2nd night of a back to back and 3rd game in 4 days. Meanwhile the Magic have been off since the 23rd. Orlando likes to play fast and will dictate tempo here as the rested home team. The Magic are averaging 100.1 possessions per game over their last five games which is 6th fastest in the NBA. Brooklyn has faced a gauntlet of playoff caliber teams in Miami, the Cavaliers twice, Denver and Sacramento so the mental and physical fatigue will catch up to them here. Orlando clearly hasn’t quit on the season as they’ve won 3 of their last four games and also played the Suns and Lakers well in 6-point and 3-point road losses. Orlando has covered 5 straight games overall.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 225 New Orleans Pelicans @ LA Clippers, 10:30 PM ET - In recent times this has been a low scoring series. In their last four meetings the most points produced in a game was 219, the other three finished with 206 or less. The Pelicans play solid defense and have held their last two opponents to 96 and 84 points. That’s not a huge surprise considering they own the 6th best defensive efficiency rating in the league at 1.126-points per possession allowed. The Pelicans have also held their last five foes to an average of 43.8% shooting. The Clippers also know a little something about defense. LA is 12th in DEFF ratings and they hold opponents to 47.1% shooting which is 12th. In their last 7 games the Clippers defense has allowed 105 or less points five times. Neither team is a great shooting team ranking 11th and 16th in team FG%. The Clippers will dictate tempo here and they prefer a slower pace. New Orleans is average in pace of play. It all adds up to a big Under winner Saturday.

ASA top play on 10* Indiana Pacers +11.5 over Boston Celtics, 7:10 PM ET - These teams have met twice this season and it’s evident the Pacers match up well with the Celtics. Indiana won here in late December as a +9.5-point underdog and then took the C’s to overtime and lost by 4-points in late February. The current injury report says Pacers All-Star PG Tyrese Haliburton should be ready to go against Boston Friday night. Indiana has 3 quality road wins on their resume in their last ten games as they won at Chicago, in Milwaukee and at Toronto. The Pacers have a 9-3 ATS record when tabbed a dog of +7.5 or more points. Boston is obviously one of the best teams in the NBA, but they are coming off a long 6-game West Coast Road trip and have lost 2 of their last three at home. Boston’s average home differential is impressive at +9PPG but that’s not enough to get a cover here. Indiana is the desperate team here fighting for the 10th spot and play in game in the East. Grab the points.

ASA top play on 10* LA Clippers -2.5 vs. Oklahoma City Thunder, 10:30 PM ET - Even with the loss of Paul George we have to back the home team Clippers who are playing with immediate revenge after losing to OKC 100-101 on Tuesday. Typically, in games like this when a key starter goes out, the role players step up given the opportunity. Los Angeles has won 5 of their last seven games and are starting to play well with Russell Westbrook in the lineup. The Thunder have put together a fantastic season with a 36-36 record and they have won 8 of their last ten games but it’s going to be tough to beat a team the caliber of the Clippers twice in their own joint, in consecutive games. The Clippers average margin of victory against .500 or less teams this season is +6PPG and they still have a very capable Kawhi Leonard on the roster. The home team has won 9 of the last ten meetings and we like that trend to continue here.

ASA top play on 10* LA Lakers +1.5 vs. Phoenix Suns, 10 PM ET - This is a meaningful game for both teams as the Suns are fighting for the 4 seed in the West, which would mean home court in the first round of the playoffs, while the Lakers are just trying to get in. Los Angeles has been MUCH better defensively with LeBron out of the lineup as they are allowing just 110.5PPG since the All-Star break. That’s significantly lower than the 118.2PPG (25th in NBA) prior to the break. The Suns defense has slipped a little since the break and are giving up +2 more PPG than they did pre-All-Star break. The Suns will be without their starting center Deandre Ayton who can defend Anthony Davis for the Lakers. Without Ayton the Suns don’t have an answer for AD who is capable of carrying this Lakers team (five 30-point games in last ten). The Suns aren’t a great road team at 15-21 SU away with a negative -0.6PPG differential. The Lakers have an average +/- at home of plus nearly 3PPG. Both teams need a win, but the Lakers are the more desperate team here.

ASA Top Play on 10* UNDER 236.5 Oklahoma City Thunder @ LA Clippers, 10:40 PM ET - When these two teams met earlier this season they produced total points of 202 and 228. Our analytics suggest another game in the mid 220’s. When it comes to defense there aren’t many teams playing better than the Clippers, who are allowing 1.118-points per possession in their last five games. One of the three other teams that rate better than the Clippers in that 5-game stretch is the Thunder. OKC is 1st in the NBA in points per possession allowed in the last five games at 1.062PPP. LA is the home team here and they will dictate tempo or pace which should be slow. The Clippers are the 7th slowest paced team in the NBA this season. The Thunder average 121.1PPG at home which is the second highest average in the league. But on the road that average dips to 114.1PPG. The Clippers are the 4th lowest scoring team in the league when playing at home at 111.4PPG, but also give up just 109.8PPG. 12 of the last sixteen meetings on this court between these two teams has stayed Under the number.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 226 Chicago Bulls @ Philadelphia 76ers, 7:10 PM ET - The pace of play should be very slow in this contest as the 76ers are the 5th slowest paced team in the NBA and the Bulls are 14th. On the season these two teams are also both stout defensively with the 5th and 6th ranked defensive efficiency units allowing 1.128-points per possession. In each teams last five games they have been even better defensively allowing just 1.108PPP (Bulls) and 1.102PPP (76ers). Both teams defend the 3-point line well too ranking 4th and 12th in 3PT% defense. Chicago is coming off a game against the Heat which finished with 212 total points and 162 total field goal attempts. Philly recently played a game against the Cavaliers in which there were only 160 FGA’s but the Sixers put up 118 points on unusually high shooting percentages of 52% overall and 47% from beyond the arc. The Bulls have some favorable road Under numbers while the 76ers have one of the lowest total points average when at home.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 231.5 Orlando Magic @ LA Lakers, 9:40 PM ET - The Lakers are fighting for their playoff lives while the Magic have been eliminated for quite some time. The young Magic have had flashes of being a viable team, but recently the grind has started to catch up with them. Orlando is 3-6 SU their last nine games but are coming off a win over the Clippers. For the season the Magic are right around league average in pace of play and defensive efficiency ratings. They rank 26th in offensive efficiency though, averaging just 1.120PPP. For the season the Lakers have been one of the faster paced teams in the league, but with LeBron out they run the offense through Anthony Davis which has led to a slower pace of play. Case in point is their pace of play in the last five games of 96.9 possessions per game which ranks 22nd slowest in the NBA. It’s no coincidence that the Lakers defense has been much better without LeBron too as they allowed over 118PPG prior to the All-Star break and are giving up just 111PPG without him on the court. In their last five games the Lakers hold the 11th best defensive efficiency rating in the league. Both teams defend the 3-point line extremely well ranking 8th (Magic) and 2nd (Lakers) and neither shoots it well from Downtown. Orlando ranks 24th in the league in 3PT% at 34.6%, while the Lakers rank 27th at 33.9%. No chance these two teams get to more than 230 total points.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 224 Minnesota Timberwolves @ Toronto Raptors, 7:10PM ET - This line opened 228 and has bet down to the current number and we love the added value with an Over bet here. Minnesota is coming off a double-overtime game last night in Chicago and have been a slight Over team when playing without rest. The Wolves O/U record when coming off a game the night before is 6-5 but those games have averaged 240.5PPG. On the season the Wolves games have averaged over 231 total points. When playing away from home the Wolves games average slightly more at 232.1PPG. Toronto is very consistent with their scoring as they average right around 224 total points from game both home and away. The Raptors offense has clicked in two straight games with 125 versus the Nuggets and 128 last time out against the Thunder. Minnesota shoots it at a 49.1% rate which is 4th best in the NBA and the Raptors defense allows opponents 49.2% which ranks 28th worst. Toronto is on a 6-1 Over streak, while Minnesota is 5-1 Over their last six road games versus teams with a +.600 or better record. Bet OVER HERE!

ASA top play on 10* Cleveland Cavaliers -6 vs. Washington Wizards, 7:40 PM ET - The Cavs are clearly an elite team in the NBA and we like the situation with them coming off a loss at home against the 76ers. Washington had lost 3 straight games, then beat the lowly Pistons 117-97. Both of these offenses have similar statistics when it comes to scoring, shooting and 3-point percentages. The biggest difference is defensively as the Cavs allow just 1.105-points per possession (2nd best) compared to the Wiz who allow 1.148PPP (19th). The Cavaliers have the 4th best average point differential at home at +8.7PPG to go with a 28-8 SU record. Washington is 16-20 SU away from home on the year with a negative differential of minus -0.4PPG. The Cavs are 10-4 SU, 9-4-1 ATS at home when coming off a loss this season. Cleveland has beaten the Wizards twice this season with both wins coming by 10 or more points. That trend continues here.

ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets -2.5 vs. Sacramento Kings, 7:40 PM ET - We went against the Kings last night and lost a tough one with Chicago. The Bulls shot poorly at 39%, which is well below their season average and still only lost by 3-points. Tonight, the Kings are going to have a tough time on the second night of a back to back. This is also Sacramento’s 5th game in an 8-day span. Last night the Kings starters Sabonis logged 40 minutes, Barnes played 35+ and Fox was on the floor for nearly 33-minutes. Fatigue will be a factor in this game! Brooklyn is 5-2 SU, 6-1 ATS their last seven games and are coming off a disappointing loss in OKC on Tuesday. The Nets own the 4th best overall team FG% offense and rank 4th in 3PT%. They should be able to exploit a tired Kings team that ranks 29th in opponents FG% and 25th in 3PT% defense. This isn’t as much a play on the Nets, but more of a play against the Kings. The revenge angle also helps here as Nets allowed over 150 in ugly loss at Sacramento earlier this season. Perfect spot for a play against the Kings!

ASA top play on 10* Chicago Bulls +1.5 vs Sacramento Kings, 8:10 PM ET - We like this Kings team and hope they make some noise in the Playoffs but today we are on the home team Bulls as a small dog. We like the scheduling advantage for the Bulls who have been off since last Saturday. The Kings have faced a brutal schedule of late with games 13 straight games against teams in the Playoff hunt. They are coming off a big game against the Eastern Conference leading Bucks. The big difference between these two teams is defense. Chicago owns the 6th best defensive efficiency rating allowing 1.128-points per possession. With the new addition of defensive minded Pat Beverly they are allowing 1.103PPP in their last three games. Sacramento has the 3rd worst DEFF allowing 1.209PPP on the season and 1.230PPP in their last three games. Granted, the Kings have a decided edge offensively, but given the scheduling we like the home defensive dog. Chicago’s 9th ranked FG percentage defense can limit the Kings 2nd best shooting offense. Sacramento ranks 29th in FG% defense and the Bulls are the 5th best shooting team in the league at 49%. Back the Bulls!

ASA TOP PLAY 10* UNDER 232.5 Milwaukee Bucks @ Phoenix Suns, 10:10 PM ET - Both teams are playing their second night of a back-to-back and 3rd game in four nights so fatigue becomes a factor. That should lead to less possessions and scoring opportunities as both will regress in pace of play here. When these two teams met in Milwaukee in late February, they combined for 182 field goal attempts (slightly more than league average) but produced just 205 total points. When it comes to pace of play the Suns are one of the slowest in the league at 98 possessions per game which ranks 22nd. Milwaukee plays faster ranking 11th overall, but given the schedule we expect them to play at the Suns preferred tempo tonight. Both teams can defend as the Bucks rank 3rd overall in defensive efficiency allowing just 1.108-points per possession. The Suns rank 8th at 1.129PPP. When the Bucks have faced an above .500 team this season those games have averaged 224.8 total points per game. When the Suns have faced a team of the same caliber (above .500) those games have averaged 222.5PPG. We expect both defenses to shine tonight. Bet UNDER!

#555 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Phoenix Suns +4.5 over Golden State Warriors, Monday at 10 PM ET - The Suns have owned this series winning all 3 meetings this season and none have been particularly close with margins of victory being +9, +11, and +12. On top of that, the Suns were only at full strength for 1 of those games with Booker, Ayton, and Paul missing time and Steph Curry scored 50 points in one of those games and Phoenix still got the win. Phoenix is still waiting for the return of Kevin Durant from the unfortunate injury when he was warming up for his home debut, but they are healthy otherwise and have been solid with an 8-3 record since Devin Booker returned to the lineup from an injury. Their overall record of 37-30 doesn’t paint an accurate picture as Phoenix was just 11-16 in the 27 games Booker missed. Since the All Star break, the Suns are 5-2 but lead the NBA in efficiency differential at +9.9 while the Warriors are 10th at +2.8. We’re also getting a well rested Suns team as they’ve played just 7 games since the All Star break while Golden State has played 10 games. We like the situation here with Golden State off huge OT win vs Milwaukee (minus Giannis) on Saturday while were getting Phoenix off a loss on Saturday vs Sacramento. The Suns have performed very well coming off a loss with a 7-1 ATS record dating back to early January. The Warriors have been very tough at home this season but we still like the points here and expect the Suns to have a solid shot at the win, if not we anticipate a close game.

ASA top play on OVER 240 Milwaukee Bucks @ Golden State Warriors, Saturday, 8:30 PM ET - We expect a very high scoring game between these two teams on Saturday. The Warriors season long statistics are somewhat misleading as they’ve dealt with major injuries to their superstars. Even with that being the case they are still 3rd in the NBA in scoring at 118.1PPG. Golden State is 4th in effective FG% shooting at 56.8% and 4th in overall 3PT% at 38.3%. Milwaukee is 15th on the season in offensive efficiency at 1.148-points per possession but in their last five games they rank 3rd at 1.251PPP. The Bucks are averaging 115.8PPG on the season and have put up 127PPG in their last three games. The Bucks have maintained a top defensive efficiency rating this season but the Warriors have not, ranking 17th. Golden State simply wants to outscore their opponents which is why they rank 1st in pace of play at 102 possessions per game. The Bucks will play fast too as they rank 12th pace at 100.1. When these two teams met earlier this season they combined for 239 total points. Last year when these two teams met in Cali they produced 231 total points. We are betting this game will be a shootout.

ASA top play on 10* Washington Wizards +1.5 vs Atlanta Hawks, 7 PM ET - This is a quick rematch from Wednesday night when the Hawks beat the Wizards by 2. Statistically the game was about as even as it gets with the Hawks benefitting from +10 free throw attempts. Washington was in a tough scheduling situation having played the night before and they were playing their 4th game in six days. Atlanta won’t have that scheduling advantage and are also playing into immediate revenge. Washington is 15-16 SU at home on the season with a negative differential of -0.4PPG. Atlanta is 13-19 SU when coming off a win, 4-10 SU when away off a W. The Hawks have a losing road record of 15-20 SU with a negative average point differential of minus -1.7PPG. Washington has covered 6 of the last eight meetings with Atlanta and will get a big home win here.

ASA top play on 10* Indiana Pacers -9 vs Houston Rockets, 7:10 PM ET - The Rockets are playing out the schedule and have a lot to gain if they stay within the bottom three teams in the league for the worst overall record (chance for #1 draft pick). Houston is 2-12 SU their last 14 games and the two wins came against the worst team in the league the Spurs. Recently the Rockets beat the Spurs twice but prior to that stretch they had lost 11 in a row. During that 11-game losing streak the Rockets lost 8 of those games by double-digits. After beating the Spurs the Rockers were trounced at home by the Nets by 22. Houston has the 2nd worst overall average point differential at minus -7.9PPG for the season, they rank 28th in offensive efficiency and 29th in DEFF. When playing away from home the Rockets get beat by an average of 11.3PPG. The Pacers are playing much better again with their All-Star PG Haliburton back in the lineup. They have won 3 of their last five games and one of those two losses came against the 76ers. Indiana is still fighting for a playoff spot and have enough talent on the roster to win this game by double digits. The Pacers have covered 11 of the last 15 meetings with the Rockets in Indianapolis.

ASA top play on 10* LA Clippers -3.5 vs. Toronto Raptors, 10:10 PM ET - Now that the Clippers “got the monkey off their backs” with a win over the Grizzlies we like them to continue to trend up as they adjust to the addition of Russell Westbrook. LA had lost 5 straight prior to their most recent win but all 5 of those L’s came against top teams in the West. Now they face an average team with a below .500 record from the East. Toronto is 12-21 SU on the road this season with a negative differential of minus -1.9PPG. The Raptors two most impressive road wins in recent weeks are at Washington and at Detroit neither of those teams compare to this Clippers team. Los Angeles is 16-15 SU at home with a +/- of +1.2PPG. Neither team shoots it overly well overall with the Raptors hitting just 45.5% of their field goal attempts (26th), while the Clippers make 47.1% good for 17th. Where the Clippers do excel though is from beyond the arc with the 6th best 3PT% at 36.7%. Toronto is second-to-last in the NBA in defending the 3-point line allowing 37.7%. The Clippers have an added day of rest while the Raptors played 2 nights ago in the higher altitude of Denver. Buy low on the Clippers tonight!

ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets -6 @ Houston Rockets, 8:10 PM ET - Most experts wrote the Nets off after the trade deadline when they dealt Kevin Durant to Phoenix and Kyrie Irving to Dallas. But Brooklyn is 5-5 SU their last ten games and still in the thick of the Eastern Conference playoff race. The Nets are starting to gel offensively and building around Mikal Bridges who has scored 30+ points in four games since joining Brooklyn. The Nets are off two wins over the Celtics and Hornets and have a winning road record of 17-16 SU for the season. Brooklyn is 3rd in overall FG% offense, 3rd in 3-point shooting and 18th in scoring (granted those numbers include KD and Kyrie). The Rockets are playing out the schedule and have a lot to gain if they stay within the bottom three teams in the league for the worst overall record (chance for #1 draft pick). Houston has won 2 straight over the 16-win Spurs but had lost 11 straight going into that home-and-home. During that 11-game losing streak the Rockets lost 8 of those games by double-digits. Houston has the 2nd worst average point differential at minus -7.9PPG for the season, they rank 28th in offensive efficiency and 29th in DEFF. Houston is just 9-22 SU with a negative +/- of minus -4.4PPG at home this season. Lay the points with the short road favorite here.

ASA top play on 10* Charlotte Hornets +10 @ NY Knicks, 7:40 PM ET - This is one of those plug your nose bets, but several key indicators have us on the Hornets. The red-hot Knicks have covered 10 of their last twelve games but now they are being asked to cover a double-digit spread. New York has only been favored by 10 or more points once this season and they failed to cover in a 3-point win over the Spurs. With more tickets and money flowing in on the Knicks this line moved from -9.5 to minus -10, and is now getting bet back by the Sharps. The Knicks have played a brutally tough schedule of late, including an OT game against the Celtics last time out. They are about to embark on a West Coast trip so it will be easy for them to look past the struggling Hornets here. Charlotte had won 5-straight games, lost PG Ball to a broken ankle, then lost three straight. Charlotte is 7-5-1 ATS this season when tabbed a double-digit underdog. NY is 21-25-2 ATS as a home chalk since the start of last season. This is one of those games where the oddsmakers are begging you to bet the Knicks, so bet contrarian and take the ugly underdog!

ASA top play on 10* Denver Nuggets -6 vs. Toronto Raptors, 9:10 PM ET - Denver has the 2nd best overall record in the NBA and the best home record at 29-4 SU. They win at home by an average of +11.9PPG which is best in the league. In their three most recent home games they were favored by similar numbers over three Western Conference teams that rate better than Toronto and they won all three by 9+ points. Toronto is 12-20 SU on the road this season with a negative differential of minus -1.9PPG. As an away dog the Raptors are 11-9 ATS. As a home favorite the Nuggets are 20-10-1 ATS with an average cover margin of +4.2PPG. Toronto was recently +7.5 points at a similar Cleveland team and lost by 25-points. The Nuggets last played March 3rd so they have extra rest and a rest advantage. When playing with a rest advantage the Nugs are 11-4-1 ATS. When playing on 2 or more days off they are 9-3 ATS this season. The Raptors two most impressive road wins in recent weeks are at Washington and at Detroit which doesn’t impress us. The Nuggets have plenty to play for which is the #1 record overall (trail the Bucks by 1-game) which would mean home court advantage if they make the Finals.

ASA top play on 10* Atlanta Hawks +3 over the Miami Heat, 7:30 PM ET - This is a quick rematch game for both teams as they just played Saturday in Miami with the Heat winning 117-109. Only 1.5 games separate these two teams in the Eastern Conference Playoff standings so it takes on an added importance for both teams. On Saturday, Miami held slight edges shooting at 51% compared to 47% overall and 37% to 30% from beyond the Arc. The Heat won that game by 8-points despite the Hawks two leading scorers Dejounte Murray (21PPG) and Trae Young (26.7PPG) being held to 10 and 7-points respectively. We are betting those two have much better games tonight. Miami has a winning record at home but their +/- is 24th in the league at +0.8PPG. As a home favorite, the Heat own the 2nd worst winning percentage in the NBA at 25.9% ATS with a 7-20-2 spread record. Atlanta has a losing road record at 14-19 SU but it should be much better based on the fact they own the 11th best average MOV at -1.9PPG. As a road dog this season, they are .500 or 11-11 ATS. We like the Hawks here plus the points in this immediate revenge game.

ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -5 vs NY Knicks, 7:40 PM ET - This is one of our favorite scheduling situations as we get an elite team in the NBA off a loss laying a short number, at home and playing with recent revenge. Boston is coming off a home loss to the Nets, a game in which they led by as many as 28-points. That result, plus the fact they just lost to the Knicks on Feb 27th will have them focused and motivated here. In their recent loss to New York the Celtics were favored by -2-points and are now laying just a few more at home. Boston is 25-8 SU at home with an average +/- of plus 8.7PPG which is 4th best in the NBA. The C’s have the 4th best offensive efficiency rating at home and the 11th best defensively. The Knicks are playing well right now with 8 straight wins but it hasn’t come against an overly difficult schedule and the win against the Celtics came with Boston’s Jaylen Brown sitting out. NY has some solid road statistics with top 10 OEFF and DEFF rankings but are in a bad situation here with a very soft spread. The Knicks don’t shoot it as well as the Celtics and both have very comparable defensive statistics so we expect that edge to be the difference here. Bet the value and Celtics in this great situation.