Sports Picks & Predictions

ASA PLAY ON: OVER 211 LA Clippers @ Utah Jazz, 9PM ET - This game has HUGE playoff implications as the Clippers need to keep winning to get in while Utah is not locked in yet and fighting for positioning. Utah is 20-22 SU against other playoff teams this season with a negative efficiency differential but those games have averaged 206 total points per game. That number is 5-points higher than their overall numbers against Lottery teams which is important here. On the season the Jazz are average or 15th in offensive efficiency ratings at 1.082 points per possession. In their last five games they have the best OEFF in the NBA at 1.153PPP. That's a great recipe tonight against a Clippers team that is 7th overall in OEFF and pace of play on the season. The LA Clippers and non-playoff opponents have averaged 213PPG on the year. Against current playoff bound teams the Clippers and foes averaged 220PPG. In the two most recent meetings between these two teams they combined for 238 and 233 total points. The Over has cashed 4 of the last five meetings in Utah. The bet here is OVER!

ASA 10* PLAY ON: Detroit Pistons +3 over Philadelphia 76ers, 7PM ET - The Detroit Pistons have zero wiggle-room right now as a loss eliminates them from the playoffs but they've vowed to make Milwaukee earn it.  Detroit has played some of their best basketball down the stretch by winning 5 straight and 7 of their last eight (8-0 ATS).  The Pistons are 6-1 SU since point guard Reggie Jackson (right ankle sprain) returned from injury and their record is 25-15 SU with him in the lineup. On the year the Pistons have a plus +3.7 point home differential and are 8-6 SU at home against Eastern Conference Playoff teams this season. Philadelphia is on a red hot 11 game winning streak but only two of those wins were against +.500 teams and both were at home with Joel Embiid in the lineup. The Sixers are just 9-16 SU against the top 8 teams in the East and 2-11 SU away in that situation. Philly is playing their 3rd game in four nights and the second of a back-to-back while the Pistons have been off since Sunday. The 76ers are just 5-7 SU, 4-8 ATS when playing without rest and they have a much bigger game on deck Friday against the Cavs who are ahead of them in the standings. Take Detroit!

ASA PLAY ON: UNDER 221.5 Golden State Warriors @ Oklahoma City Thunder, 8PM ET – The contrarian play here is Under as public money is on the Over but we like the value and statistics that support Under. This is the 4th and final meeting of the season between these two rivals with the first three meetings all staying Under the number. In the lone clash in OKC these two teams combined for just 199 Total points. In two of the three meeting they also stayed below their average field goal attempts per game and below the league average. Much is made of these two teams offense, but their defenses are what make them what they are. OKC are 10th in defensive efficiency ratings while Golden State is 11th. Both basically allow 1.070 points per possession. The Warriors are coming off two higher scoring games, but they came against the Kings and Suns who are two of the worst defenses in the NBA. Prior to that they had scored 107 or less in five straight games. In the Thunder’s last six games they have played five that were low scoring by their standards with the highest point total being 213. Both teams have favored the Under when playing with 1 day rest with OKC averaging 210PPG in those games and GST averaging 216PPG. The Under has cashed in 8 of the last nine meetings. It’s and UNDER tonight!

ASA’s PLAY ON: Denver Nuggets -4 over Milwaukee Bucks, 8PM ET – These two teams are both playing for the post season but have various levels of urgency. The Bucks are in already and could move up to 7th or even 6th with some help from Miami and Washington. Denver though is fighting for their playoff lives as they are 2 games out of the post season which makes this game dramatically more important for them.  The Nuggets have been fantastic at home this year with a 27-10 SU record and a point differential of +6.2PPG which is 8th best in the NBA. The Bucks on the other hand are 18-20 SU away from home with a negative point differential of -1.1PPG. Denver’s last three home wins have all come by 7 or more points and in this do-or-die situation we expect a win by that margin or more. The Bucks are coming off a pair of road wins and playing their 4th straight away from home in a 6-day span. The Nuggets have owned the Bucks here covering 14 of the last eight meetings in Denver. We also like the value here considering the Nuggets were recently favored by -8.5 points against the Pistons. Take the Nuggets and lay the points.

ASA PLAY ON: New Orleans Pelicans (+4) @ Cleveland Cavaliers, 8PM ET - We won't hesitate to take the points and the Pelicans here as the Cavs continue to have the worst spread record in the NBA. On the season the Cavs are just 27-47-1 ATS, 10-25-1 ATS at home. I literally laugh out loud when I hear the talking heads proclaim the Cavs are playing great right and poised to make a run in the Playoffs. It couldn't be further from the truth and it Cleveland ends up with a first round series with Washington they not make it out of the opening series. The Cavs have won 7 of their last ten games but only 2 of those wins came against Playoff bound teams and both were at home. On the season the Cavs are just 17-20 SU versus current playoff teams, 4-11 SU against the top 8 teams from the West. The Cavaliers efficiency differentials in those 15 games is horrendous. Cleveland's defense is the problem as they rank 29th in the NBA in defensive efficiency ratings, only the Suns are worse. The Pelicans are in desperation mode here as they only lead the 9th place Clippers by 2 games in the Western Conf playoff race. New Orleans is 23-14 ATS on the road this season and have been rock solid against the best teams in the East with a 10-5 SU record versus the top 8 teams. The Pelicans road point differential  at plus .4PPG is nearly as good as Cleveland's home differential of +.8. Easy call here to take NO plus the points. 

ASA PLAY ON: OVER 225 Cleveland Cavaliers @ Charlotte Hornets, 7PM ET – Look for the Cavaliers to turn the thorough bread horses loose tonight after a ‘grinder’ last night in Miami. That made sense considering the Heat are the 4th slowest paced team in the NBA and 8th best in defensive efficiency ratings. Now the Cavs face a Charlotte team that is average in terms of DEFF and 8th in pace of play. The Hornets have nothing to play for which translates to very little defense and uptempo offense. Offensively the Bugs have put up 111, 140, 102 and 137 points in their last four games. Cleveland is one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA, wait, let me rephrase that. The Cavs are second to last in defensive efficiency ratings, only Phoenix is worse! Cleveland makes up for it though with an offense that is 5th in the NBA in offensive efficiency ratings. After scoring 120+ in four straight games the Cavs managed just 79 last night in Miami. The Cavs have gone OVER the total in 5 of their last six when coming off a loss and this series has played OVER in 4 straight in Charlotte. The number is higher than normal for a reason. BET OVER!

ASA PLAY ON 10* Toronto -8.5 over Denver, Tuesday at 7:30 PM ET

The situation clearly favors Toronto here as: 1) They catch the Nuggets off a game last night and are rested themselves. 2) Denver's leading scorer Gary Harris is out. 3) Toronto is coming off a RARE home loss to the Clippers in their previous game. If we look inside the numbers we find that Denver is just 4-9 SU, 6-7 ATS when playing the second night of a back-to-back, which gets magnified without their best player. Toronto off a loss have been fantastic with a 15-4 SU overall record, 8-0 SU at home. When the Raptors are playing at home off a home loss they are 4-0 and those four wins came by an average of 20PPG. Toronto has the best home court point differential in the NBA at +10.3PPG with a 30-7 SU record. Denver has not been a great road team all season long with a 13-24 SU road record and a minus point differential of -3.7PPG. The Raptors are still playing for something as they want the second best overall record in the NBA in case they would meet Golden State in the Finals they would have home court advantage. This one won't be close, lay the points!

ASA PLAY ON: OVER 217 NY Knicks @ Washington Wizards, 6PM ET – This number is set a little higher than league average, but we expect them to score plenty of points to push this OVER the Total. These two teams met a little over a month ago and combined to score 231 total points. In January they totaled 224 so you can see for yourself the reoccurring trend going on. In the Knicks last nine road contests they’ve allowed 111 or more points seven times and those games have given up an average of 118PPG. New York allows foes to hit 48% of their field goal attempts when away from home which plays right into the Wizards hands as they shoot over 48% at home. Washington averages 108PPG at home on the year and will be anxious to score here against this Knicks defense that is one of the 10 worst in defensive efficiency ratings. The Wizards average 1.099 points per possession on offense which is 9th best in the NBA. New York will score here too as they’ve topped 110+ points in 3 of their last five games. The OVER is now 5-1 the last six meetings between these two Eastern Conference rivals. BET OVER!

ASA PLAY ON: Indiana Pacers (-3) over LA Clippers, 7PM ET - We like the home team Pacers here and don't expect this game to be close. Indiana is coming off a really poor shooting night on the road Wednesday in New Orleans, but look for that to change on their home court where they shoot 48% on the year. The Pacers have a +3.2 point differential at home on the year and have covered 5 straight home games as a favorite. Also, the Pacers have cashed in 10 of their last fourteen as a small favorite of less than -3.5 points. The LA Clippers are in a tough stretch here with just 1 win in their last five games which came in their most recent game in Milwaukee on Wednesday. Prior to that the Clippers had lost three straight road contests. Both teams have plenty to play for here as Indiana is fighting for home court in the first round of the playoffs, while the Clippers are fighting just to get in. But in the end, Indiana is 24-13 SU at home and has several matchup advantages over the Clippers that should lead to a double digit win here. 

ASA PLAY ON: Philadelphia 76ers -8 over Orlando Magic, 7PM ET - Obviously we are laying a premium price here but it's still the only way to bet this game. Orlando is fighting for the #1 pick in the draft while the Sixers are fighting for the 4th spot in the East which would mean home court in the first round of the playoffs. The Magic are 21-50 and just two games "behind" Memphis and Phoenix for the worst overall record in the NBA. Orlando has lost 7 of their last eight games, including two straight at home by 9 to the short-handed Celtics, and by 7 to the Raptors. Philly has won 4 straight games with three of the four coming by 8 or more points. Orlando has the 8th worst overall point differential in the NBA at minus -4.7PPG. Conversely, the 76ers have the 9th best overall point differential in the NBA at plus +2.6PPG. In the two meetings earlier this season the 76ers won by 11 and 19. Effort will be the difference in this game and it will lead to a double digit win by the visitor. Take Philadelphia!

ASA PLAY ON: UNDER 209 Oklahoma City Thunder @ Boston Celtics, 8PM ET - Our Math Model predicts 206 Total points on this game which is not drastically lower than tonight's line but it's a start in the right direction. Let's first address that the Thunder are off a game against the Raptors on Sunday in which they totaled 257 points. OKC scored 132 but when you look closer you see anomalies, not normality. The Thunder shot 56% as a team overall and nearly 48% from beyond the arc (10 of 21). Both of those numbers are drastically higher than their season average of 45% overall FG percentage and 35% from 3. Expect a return to normal tonight against the league's most efficient defense of the Celtics that allows just 1.037 points per possession. Boston gives up just 100.4PPG at home on the year.  OKC is also a top 10 defensive efficiency team (9th) allowing just 1.07PPP. The Celtics are also missing their leading scorer and playmaker in Kyrie Irving and second leading scorer Jaylen Brown (14.1PPG). In their last four games, excluding OT, the Celtics have averaged just 96PPG offensively. With playoff implications for both teams on the line this shapes up to be a defensive struggle. BET UNDER!

ASA PLAY ON: Philadelphia 76ers -8.5 over Charlotte Hornets, 7PM ET - Several teams can't afford to relax these days and one of them is the 76ers. Philadelphia is in a tightly contested five-way battle for the third seed in the Eastern Conference playoff race, where just 3 1/2 games separate the current third-place Cleveland Cavaliers from the eighth-place Miami Heat. Of course the big reward is home court advantage if they can finish 4th or higher. This is clearly a bad match-up for the Hornets as they've lost to the Sixers twice this season by double-digits in both games. Charlotte is clearly a team that has cashed it in this season evidenced by their box scores where they are giving extended minutes to bench players. The Hornets have just two wins in their last nine games (3 covers) and those came against the Hawks and Suns who are two of the worst teams in the NBA. Philly is coming off a close win over Brooklyn which serve as a wake-up call for tonight. The 76ers have an average home point differential of +6.3PPG this season. Charlotte allows teams to hit 48% of their field goal attempts on the road this year while Philly shoots 47% at home. Philadelphia is 8-1 ATS their last nine at home versus teams with losing records and while we know we are laying a premium number here, we still feel it won't matter. Take the 76ers!

ASA PLAY ON: Charlotte Hornets (-6.5) over Brooklyn Nets, Thurs 7PM  ET - The scheduling clearly favors the home team here as Brooklyn is playing their 5th straight road game, three of which were just on the West Coast with the most recent coming against the Warriors. Now just 2 days later they are back on the East Coast to face the Hornets. Charlotte meanwhile is off 4 straight losses after winning five straight. The Hornets recent losing streak though comes against a few of the best teams in the East (76ers twice, Celtics and Raptors) which the Nets are not. Charlotte sits 6 games out of the 8th and final spot in the East and have to make a run starting tonight to have a shot at the post season. Brooklyn on the other hand is in the ‘tankathon’ with the rest of the bottom-feeders in the East as they jockey for the best Lottery position. Charlotte has beaten three similar teams to the Nets at home (prior to the loss to the Sixers) by 15, 16 and 15 over this same Nets team. The Hornets are 5-2 SU their last seven at home and the two losses came to Philly and Toronto. Brooklyn has the 8th worst average road point differential of minus 6PPG. Charlotte is 4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS at home this season when coming off a home loss. Those four wins came by an average of 11PPG. Lay the points with the home team here!

ASA PLAY ON: Cleveland Cavaliers (+3) over Denver Nuggets, 10:35PM ET - If you haven’t figured LeBron out yet then we’ll give you the abbreviated version. When motivated he can be absolutely incredible. One of the best athletes to ever play in the NBA along with Shag and Wilt. The downside is that he lacks the mental fortitude to ever be considered the GOAT and lacks the killer instinct the true greats had. But for our wager today we expect to have an engaged LeBron which is a good thing. The Cavs just lost at home to the Nuggets where LBJ scored 25 points, grabbed 10 boards and dished out 15 assists. Denver shot a ridiculous 19 of 35 from deep or 54% from beyond the arc which was drastically better than their 36.6% on the season. Since the monster trade the Cavs have been better defensively so expect a concentrated effort on that end of the floor this evening. Cleveland is 15-15 SU on the road this year and one of only 9 teams in the NBA with a positive road point differential. Denver just 4-8 ATS this season when playing without rest, 1-4 SU/ATS when playing without rest at home dating back to 2015. Cavs on 80% or 8-2 spread run as a road dog this season. Take Cleveland here.

ASA PLAY ON Under 218.5 Phoenix Suns @ Miami Heat, 7:35PM ET - We will play UNDER in this game as our Math Model predicts 210 points in this contest. Contrasting styles here as the Suns want to play fast (100.1 possessions per game) 27th fastest, while the Heat want to play slow (95.2PPP) 4th slowest. The home team sets the tempo here and have one of the league's best defenses allowing just 1.066 points per possession which is 7th best in the NBA. Miami was recently embarrassed at home by the Lakers who are a similar team to the Suns so expect a much better effort tonight. Miami also has a much bigger game on deck tomorrow night against the Wizards and they've gone UNDER in 8 of 10 games this season on the first night of back-to-backs. Makes sense right, conserve energy in Game 1 so you maximize your starters effort on the second night. While the Suns have not been good defensively all season long, they have held their last five opponents to 43.7% shooting which is solid. Phoenix has also stayed Under the total now in 5 of their last six away from home. Easy call here with UNDER!

ASA PLAY ON: #817/818 UNDER 208 Minnesota Timberwolves @ Utah Jazz, 10:35PM - Our predictive analytics and math model project just 203 Total points in this game and we couldn't agree more with the numbers. Minnesota is short handed here after losing Jimmy Butler to a knee injury and are playing the second night of a back-to-back so scoring could be tough. Minnesota has typically averaged less points per game when playing without rest. Scoring against the Jazz has been tough for everyone in the NBA as they allow just 1.059 points per possession which is 5th best in the league. The Jazz have held 9 straight opponents to 100 points or less and have scored 97 or less in three straight. In their last five games the Jazz are the slowest paced team in the NBA at 94.8 possessions per game and the 3rd worst offensive efficiency rating. Minnesota has NOT been good defensively all season long with the 26th ranked DEFF numbers overall, BUT in their last five games they are giving up just 1.102PPP which is 15th. In the two meetings this season these two teams have combined for 207 and 197 total points. The Under is now 4-1 the last five meetings. 

ASA play on: LA Lakers -4 over Dallas Mavericks, 10:30PM ET - We like the Lakers here by double-digits over the visiting Mavericks. Dallas has a huge black cloud over their franchise with Mark Cuban's recent comments about tanking and issues in the front office with a rumored bad work environment for women. Now we know this shouldn't effect play on the court but it certainly is a distraction for coaches and players. The Lakers on the other hand have some positives working for them with the return of Lonzo Ball and the new addition of Isaiah Thomas. This is also a quick revenge game for LA as they were recently beaten in Dallas by 7-points as a 3-point dog. The Lakers have lost 3 straight but all three were on the road. Now the Lakers are back home were they just beat OKC by 25 and Phoenix by 19. The Mavs are just 7-21 SU on the road this season, 1-7 SU their last eight with four of those losses coming by 7 or more points. The Mavs have the 8th worst road differential in the NBA at minus -5.6PPG. The Lakers 8-0 ATS home streak gets stretched to 8 after tonight. 

#559/560 ASA PLAY ON: UNDER 214 Oklahoma City Thunder @ Sacramento Kings, 10PM ET - Our math model suggests juts 206 total points in this contest  and we couldn't agree more. On the year these two teams rank in the bottom ten in the NBA when it comes to pace of play and in their last five games each they've played slower yet. Coming off the break we expect the defenses to have a little more energy here and scoring will be tough to come by. The Kings are going to have a hard time scoring regardless as they rank LAST in the NBA in offensive efficiency ratings (just 1.035 points per possession) and Thunder have the 7th most efficient defense in the NBA (allow just 1.065PPP).  Now granted, the Kings don't have a great defense but as we mentioned earlier the Thunder don't play fast so expect them to score their season average of 107PPG. When OKC is on the road this season their games average 211PPG. At home the Kings games have averaged 207PPG. In two meetings this season these two have combined for 180 and 184 total points. It won't be that low tonight but they won't score more than 207 either. BET UNDER!

ASA PLAY ON: UNDER 214 Denver Nuggets @ Milwaukee Bucks, 8PM ET - Since the coaching change in Milwaukee, the Bucks have played some outstanding defense, ranking 3rd overall in defensive efficiency ratings their past 5 games. The Bucks have allowed less than 1-point per possession in that span.  In their last five games the Bucks have played very deliberately with the 2nd slowest paced offense in the NBA. The Nuggets are coming off several games against faster paced teams including the Suns, Rockets, Hornets and Warriors which were all higher scoring games. Those results have given us the added value in the line today to make this Under wager. Since the firing of J-Kidd in Milwaukee no home game has finished with more points than tonight's Total. The bet here is UNDER!

ASA PLAY ON: Boston Celtics -4.5 over LA Clippers, 8PM ET – We love this situation with Boston coming off not one, but two home losses with the most recent being a blowout on National TV. They will rebound here with a max effort prior to the All-Star Break. Boston was just crushed at home by their rivals the Cleveland Cavaliers by 22 points which is significant as they are 4-0 SU & ATS when coming off a double-digit loss this season. The Celts are 21-10 SU at home with an average differential of +4.5PPG which is 11th best in the NBA. The difference here is defense as these two teams are similar in terms of offensive efficiency ratings but defensively the Celtics are far superior with the best DEFF in the NBA while the Clippers are 15th. L.A. has a losing road record and an average differential of -1PPG which is in the bottom half of the NBA. The Clippers have also played an ‘average’ road schedule and now step up against one of the best teams in the league, in a bad mood. In their last three road games the Clippers got a big win over the Pistons and their former teammate Blake Griffin, then lost at Philly by 14 as a 5-point dog, then won at Brooklyn by 13. Great spot to play on a motivated ‘A’ level team off a loss against a ‘B’ level team off a road win. Lay the points!

ASA PLAY ON: OVER 206 Miami Heat @ Toronto Raptors, 7PM ET - Our math models suggests Over here and we couldn't agree more. The Raptors are the 4th most efficient offense at home and score the 4th most points in the league on their home court at 112.7PPG. Miami is coming off a low scoring game against the Bucks but have allowed 109, 111 and 111 the three previous games. That's a great recipe for a high scoring game given they are going up against one of the highest scoring offenses in the NBA. The Heat have the 7th best defensive efficiency rating on the season but in their last five games they are 21st. The Raptors have had some monster offensive games lately with 123, 113, 111, 130, 119 and 123 point outputs in 6 of their last ten. A big reason for that success is their depth as the bench has played outstanding when the regulars are off the floor. Vegas has set a number on this game that is 6 or 7 points below the league average and yet the numbers say it will be right around that 212 mark. Bet the value and OVER here!

ASA PLAY ON: #703/704 UNDER 221.5 New Orleans Pelicans @ Detroit Pistons, 7PM ET - Our predictive analytics suggest just 212 total points in this contest and we agree with the math model. These same two teams just met a little over a month ago and Vegas had set a number of 211 on that game so you can see for yourself the value in tonight's number. Detroit is the home team here and they'll have a bigger influence on the pace of play which will be slower than normal for the Pelicans. The Pistons are the 20th slowest paced team in the NBA. New Orleans has the 11th best offensive efficiency numbers while Detroit is 17th. The Pistons are 10th in the league in defensive efficiency while New Orleans is 22nd. The Pelicans have averaged 217PPG on the road this year while the Pistons have averaged 208PPG at home. Detroit just gave up 118 points to a bad Hawks team and will tighten up their defense tonight. New Orleans is coming off a very high scoring OT game against a fast paced Nets team so expect a slower tempo out of them tonight. Easy call here with UNDER the Total. 

ASA PLAY ON: Utah Jazz (+3) over Portland Trailblazers, 9PM ET – Two hot teams square off tonight and the bet here is on the underdog. While the Blazers have won 9 of their last fourteen games it’s not as impressive as you might think. Of those nine wins only two came against good teams, Minnesota and Indiana. Utah on the other hand has won 8 straight and has some solid wins at New Orleans, at San Antonio, home against Golden State and at Toronto. Portland is 16-10 SU at home this year, but their home point differential is 16th in the NBA (average) at +2.5PPG. On the year the Jazz have an average point differential of -3.2PPG but they’ve had a ton of injuries early in the season. Portland was recently a home favorite of 3-points against Charlotte who isn’t nearly as good as this Jazz team. Utah has covered 6 in a row on the road against teams with winning home records and don’t be surprised when they win this game outright. 

ASA PLAY ON: #507 Washington Wizards (-6) over Chicago Bulls, 8PM ET - This is a great spot to play on a good team off a couple losses (Washington) versus a bad team off an upset win as a dog (Chicago). Washington has won 5 straight games prior to a pair of losses to the Celtics and 76ers in their most recent two games. Included in that 5 game run the Wiz had road victories by 9 over Indiana, 17 over Orlando and 25 over Atlanta. The Bulls are very comparable to those three teams (worse than Indiana). Prior to last night's upset win over the T'Wolves, the Bulls had lost 7 in a row overall, and 3 in a row at home. Chicago has the 6th worst home point differential in the NBA at home this year and a negative differential of -9PPG their last five. Bulls just 2-7 SU (3-6 ATS) when playing without rest this season and are forced to sit Zach Lavine tonight on the second day of a back to back.The Wiz have covered 10 of the last thirteen meetings. 

ASA PLAY ON: #816 Utah Jazz (-6) over Charlotte Hornets, 9PM ET – We’ve faded the Hornets two games in a row successfully and will play against them here too. Charlotte is in a tough scheduling situation as they played in Denver (higher altitude) on Monday, Portland last night which was OT and are now back in the thin air of Utah tonight. Not too mention, the Jazz are RED HOT right now having won 7 straight games and five of those wins came against current playoff caliber teams. Yes, the Jazz just traded away Rodney Hood but he was coming off the bench and it’s not like they lose a starter. Utah has found a rhythm offensively as they’ve put up 120 or more in 4 of their last five games and their two most recent wins came by 30 over the Warriors and 12 versus the Clippers. Three Hornets starters logged 39+ minutes last night so fatigue will certainly be a factor tonight for Charlotte. Charlotte is just 3-6 SU and ATS when playing the second night of a back to back this season. Utah is also playing with revenge as they recently lost in Charlotte. Utah has a +19.8PPG differential in their last five games which is the best number in the NBA over that 5-game span. It all adds up to a double-digit win by Utah tonight. Easy call here. 

ASA PLAY ON: #506 NY KNICKS (+1.5) over Milwaukee Bucks, 7:35PM ET - There is some tremendous value in this number as these same two teams just met a few nights ago in Milwaukee where the Bucks were favored by -4.5 points. The natural swing here should have the Knicks as a 4-point home favorite yet they are tabbed the dog here. The Knicks lost in Milwaukee by 2 points in a game they executed poorly down the stretch and should have won that game outright. They then came home and suffered a 'hangover' loss to the Hawks. New York is 16-10 SU at home and have the 10th best home differential in the NBA at +4.9PPG. The Bucks have played well since the firing of head coach Jason Kidd and are off a road win over Brooklyn. Milwaukee lost backup PG Dellavedova to an injury in that game and Giannis Antetokounmpo twisted his ankle for the second time in the past five games. The Greek Freak is expected to play tonight but certainly won't be 100%. NY has covered 5 straight when coming off a ATS loss, while Bucks just 2-6 ATS their last eight on the road off a win. Take the Knicks with revenge. 

ASA #710 Denver Nuggets -5.5 over Charlotte Hornets, 10PM ET - We don't have a problem laying points with a Denver team at home, facing an un-rested Hornets team . Granted, the Hornets have won 3 straight and 6 of their last ten but look at who those wins have come against (Phoenix, Indiana at home and at Atlanta). In other words we're really not impressed with Charlotte's current 'success' if you want to call it that. Denver on the other hand is 5 -2 SU their last seven games which included impressive wins over Portland, OKC and Golden State. The Nuggets two losses came against the Spurs and Celtics. Denver is 21-7 SU at home this season with an average differential of plus +6.1PPG. Charlotte is just 3-5 SU when playing the second day of a back to back and are stuck in the higher altitude of Denver which is a problem when playing without rest. Denver gets a double-digit home win here. 

ASA PLAY ON: #509 Boston Celtics (-5) over LA Lakers, 10:35PM ET - Geez, I'm surprised that the Lakers are on national TV again? It's stunning to think that a team with a 26-56 record from last season and is 17-29 this year would get so much national attention. It's obvious that Lonzo Ball is going to be a nice player in the NBA but he's not destined for greatness and the over-hype has run its course in my opinion. But I am happy to watch Brad Stevenson's Celtics with Kyrie Irving and Jayson Tatum. The Celts have lost three straight games with most recent being an embarrassing home loss to the Magic so expect a big effort here. Prior to the 3-game slide the C's had won 7 straight games and 5 of their last six on the road. The Lakers were on a 9-game losing streak from late December through early January before winning 4 in a row, losing 2, then winning two. Looking at the Lakers current six wins we find 3 came against, arguably, the three worst teams in the league and four of the six were against teams with losing records. Now they face the best team in the East who is motivated after three straight losses. There are only 9 teams in the NBA that have a negative point differential at home and L.A. is one of them. Celtics road differential of +4.1PPG is 4th best in the league. Lay the short number here with Boston!

 ASA PLAY ON OVER 214 Phoenix Suns @ Milwaukee Bucks, 8PM ET - Yes, even without the Greek Freak for the Bucks we like a higher scoring game here with the faster paced Suns in town. Milwaukee is coming off a pair of games against Miami and Philadelphia who are two of the leagues better defensive efficiency teams. Phoenix is not one of those as they rank 2nd to last in DEFF allowing 1.121 points per possession. The Suns also like to play fast with the 4th highest pace of play numbers in the league. Granted the Bucks are slower paced but they make up for it with the 11th most efficient offense. The Bucks are surprisingly one of the worst defense teams in the NBA too allowing 1.105PPG (25th in NBA). Phoenix has given up 112 or more points in three of their last four games while the Bucks have allowed 106 or more in 5 of their last nine, including 116 to Philly and 129 to Toronto. Former Sun Eric Bledsoe will fill the scoring void of Giannis for the Bucks but they can't replace his defense. This number is barely higher than the league average and our math model predicts 220 or more points given the circumstances. BET OVER!

ASA PLAY ON: #803 Miami Heat -2.5 over Brooklyn Nets, 7:35PM ET - The Heat have quietly made a run in the East and currently sit atop of the Southeast Division ahead of the Wizards. Miami suffered a beat down at home by the Nets back on December 29th and then ripped off seven straight wins, lost at Chicago and then beat Milwaukee. The Heats stats from their last five games are impressive as they have the 6th best defensive efficiency numbers allowing just 1.024 points per possession. In that same five game span the Nets are allowing 1.109PPP which is 21st in the NBA and worse than their season averages. The Heat have been better offensively too, averaging 1.074 points per possession which is up from their season numbers of 1.062PPP. Brooklyn's OEFF ratings are the 4th worst in the NBA on the season and in their last five games. The Nets have an average differential of -2.5 PPG at home this season which is the 5th worst number in the league. Miami is 4-1 ATS as a small favorite in this price range this season while the Nets are 1-3 ATS as a dog in this same price. After the horrible home beating the Heat suffered to the Nets less than a month ago they'll be prepared here and set for payback. Miami has covered 10 of the last thirteen meetings. Lay it.

ASA PLAY ON: UNDER 222 Denver Nuggets @ LA Clippers, 10:30PM ET – Let’s start with Denver. The Nuggets are the 13th slowest paced team in the NBA on the season averaging 96.3 possessions per game. When they play on the road they average less at 95.7 possessions (8th slowest) and in their last five games it’s slower yet at 94.9 possessions. In their last two games in this scheduling situation (off a home game and playing on the road without rest) the Nuggets have scored just 98 and 80 points. The LA Clippers are red hot right now and a lot of that has to do with their defense. On the season the Clippers are a top 10 team in terms of offensive efficiency ratings but a bottom 10 team in DEFF. In their last five games the Clippers are still top 10 in OEFF (7th) but are also 11th in DEFF allowing just 1.069 points per possession. LA just played a faster paced, more efficient Houston team which had a Total like this of 229 and those two teams combined for just 215 total points. Granted, the Clippers have gone Over the number in 4 of their last five but those circumstances were different than tonight’s. Denver counters with 4 straight Unders and we like their trend to continue, not the Clippers. In the last ten meetings between these two teams they have scored 221 or less in nine of those clashes. BET UNDER!

ASA PLAY ON: UNDER 213 New York Knicks @ Brooklyn Nets , 3PM ET – We like Under in this day game as our Math Model projects 208 total points in this contest. Ironically, the oddsmakers opened this line at 208 but it was bet up to the current number, meaning we have a ton of value here. Let’s look at each teams last five games. If you go by straight scoring, you’ll be misled as the Nets have played two OT games in their last 5 as have the Knicks. That extra session inflates their scoring averages. If you remove the OT’s you get a much better idea of pace and points. Over their last five games the Nets surprisingly have the 7th best defensive efficiency rating allowing just 1.04 points per possession, which is drastically better than the 1.084PPP they allow on the season. The Knicks defensively are at the league average in points per possession allowed at 1.082. A key factor here will be the pace of play. The Knicks are averaging just 95.1 possession per game their last five games which is the 4th slowest pace in the NBA. Brooklyn is playing a little faster in their last five games but have the worst offensive efficiency rating during that stretch. The numbers don’t lie, bet Under.

ASA PLAY ON: UNDER 213 Oklahoma City Thunder @ Minnesota Timberwolves, 8PM ET - The previous 3 meetings this season say you should bet Over here but we're betting numbers, and the value lies with an Under wager tonight. In the 3 meetings this season these two have combined for 228, 235 and 218 total points. But our Math Model projects just 208 total points in this contest and clearly we are making the wager Vegas doesn't want us to make. In the most recent meeting between these two teams the oddsmakers posted a Total of 208.5 points on the game. As you can see for yourself the number is now 4 full points higher just a month plus later. OKC has struggled a little offensively in their last two games with just 100 points against a bad defensive team in Phoenix and 106 versus Portland last night. On the season the Wolves have not been great defensively as they allow 1.093 points per possession (11th highest number in the NBA) but in their last five games they have the 3rd best defensive efficiency numbers in the league. On the season the Thunder have the 5th best DEFF rating allowing just 1.054PPP. On the season these two teams are the 8th (OKC) and 9th (Minn) slowest paced teams in the league. The Wolves have just put up some big offensive numbers in their last two games versus Cleveland and New Orleans, but those two defenses are a couple of the worst in the NBA, and not even close to the Thunders caliber. Fatigue is also an issue for OKC as they are coming off a game last night and when playing without rest their games have averaged just 207PPG. Bet contrarian here and PLAY UNDER!

ASA PLAY ON: 808 Milwaukee Bucks (+1) over Toronto Raptors, 8PM ET - Revenge angles only work in the NBA if the circumstances are right and it works tonight with the Bucks. Milwaukee just lost in Toronto on Monday 127-131 in OT in a very tight battle from start to finish. In this quick turnaround setting we like the Bucks to get a little payback here. Milwaukee has better overall offensive and defensive efficiency numbers their last five games compared to the Raptors and a better point differential. The Bucks are shooting over 50% their last five contests compared to the Raptors 44%. They are also allowing an average of 5-less points per game their last five too compared to Toronto. The Raps have a solid road record this season of 12-9 SU but they only have one quality win over the Rockets and nine of those W's came against teams with losing records. The Bucks are 13-6 SU at home this year, 4-1 SU their last five. The Bucks come to play tonight and get a big home win! 

ASA play on: #504 New York Knicks (+5) over San Antonio Spurs, 7:35PM ET - The value in this line is obvious as the Knicks just played in San Antonio a few nights ago and were plus 10.5 points and now are home getting +5.5 points. That's not a normal swing in points and is clearly an over-adjustment by the oddsmakers. The Spurs home/road dichotomies are drastically different and they aren't nearly as good on the road as they are at home. San Antonio's road point differential if -2.1PPG which is in the bottom half of the NBA. They have the second worst offensive efficiency ratings on the road but 3rd best defensive efficiency numbers. That disparity is a large reason why they are just 3-8 ATS on the road as a favorite this season.  The Knicks have been good at home this year with a 15-6 SU record and a home point differential of +6.3PPG which is 10th best in the NBA. New York has a top 10 OEFF ratings and a top 14 DEFF ratings in the Garden. Normally I'd be remiss to play against the Spurs off a loss but the facts are they have a 2-3 ATS record on the road in that role. The Knicks are 8-3-1 ATS as a home pooch this season. Grab the points!

ASA PLAY ON: #506 Milwaukee Bucks (-3.5) over Minnesota Timberwolves, 8PM ET - Scheduling clearly favors the Bucks here as the Wolves coming into this game off an OT win last night against Denver making this the second night of a back to back, not to mention the 3rd in four nights. Milwaukee comes into this game having lost two straight games, the most recent a home loss to the Bulls. Last night the Timberwolves starters all played 30+ minutes and three of the five (Butler, Wiggins and Gibson) all played 40 plus. That makes tonight's game so tough for them as their depth has been a concern all season long. Minnesota's bench averages just 13 minutes per game which is last in the NBA and their offensive/defensive efficiency stats are in the bottom four of the NBA in both categories. Milwaukee has lost two home games to the Bulls in the past two weeks but have won 6 other home games which included a 'W' over the Cleveland Cavaliers. The Bucks have covered 6 of the last seven meetings and will get a solid home win tonight over a tired Wolves team. Lay it. 

10* PLAY OVER 207 Indiana Pacers @ Detroit Pistons, 7PM ET - Our computer analytics suggest a higher scoring game than the oddsmakers have predicted here. Remember the league average total points scored per game is 210.2PPG. When we look at these two teams efficiency ratings we find the Pistons are the 10th slowest paced team in the NBA but the Pacers are the 10th fastest, wash! Indiana has the 6th most efficient offense in the NBA, the Pistons have the 14th best (above average). The Pistons are 12th in defensive efficiency rating but the Pacers are 20th. Both teams are scoring more points in their last five games compared to their season averages with the Pacer games averaging 215PPG and the Pistons games averaging 206. This is the 4th and final meeting of the season for these two teams and the lowest total of the four games (210, 211.5, 208)  so grab the value with over. The over is now 7-2 the last nine meetings in Mo'Town. 

ASA 10* PLAY ON: OVER 215 Brooklyn Nets @ Indiana Pacers, 7PM ET - This total is set a few points higher than the league average but yet it features two of the ten fastest paced teams in the league. The Pacers are 10th in pace while the Nets are 3rd. In terms of offensive efficiency ratings the Pacers are 6th in the NBA at 1.104 points per possession. Brooklyn isn't as efficient offensively as the Pacers but they still average 107.2PPG which is the 9th highest number in the league. When it comes to defense both teams rank in the bottom half of the NBA in defensive efficiency with the Pacers 19th overall and the Nets 20th. These two teams met a few days ago and Vegas posted a number of 219.5 on that game so you can see for yourself the value we are getting here. When playing without rest the Nets games average 216.4PPG while the Pacers with 2+ days of rest average 221PPG. This should be a shootout!

PLAY ON: Atlanta Hawks +11.5 over Oklahoma City Thunder, 8PM ET - Yeah, I know it's hard to bet 'ugly' teams like the Hawks but the value here is clearly on their side. OKC is being asked by the oddsmakers to cover a hefty number here, especially considering they haven't been a double-digit chalk since mid-November. The Thunder also have two much bigger games on deck at Utah and then a Christmas Day showdown with the Rockets, so they may get caught looking past the lowly Hawks. OKC has the 7th best home point differential in the NBA at +7.3PPG but that's not enough to get a cover here. Atlanta is just 2-11 SU their last 13 road games but NONE of those losses have been by more than tonight's point spread. In fact, only 2 of the Hawks road losses have come by 12 or more points all season long. On the season the Hawks road differential is -5.8PPG, less than tonight's number. In their last five games these teams are nearly identical in terms of offensive efficiency ratings so Atlanta can score with the Thunder. Grab the points with Atlanta!

ASA PLAY  ON: #714 CHICAGO BULLS (-5) over Orlando Magic, 8PM ET - We could make a case that nobody in the NBA is playing better than the Bulls right now and there aren't many teams playing worse than the Magic. Chicago has ripped off 6 straight wins which included victories over the 26-7 Celtics, 76ers and East contenders Milwaukee Bucks.  Chicago's average point differential in their last five games is +7.2PPG which is 4th best in the league. During that same 5-game stretch the Bulls have the 6th best defensive efficiency rating and the 11th best OEFF. Both of those numbers are DRASTICALLY better than their season averages which is what the point spread is based on. Conversely, the Orlando Magic are really struggling after a pretty good start. Orlando has lost 5 straight games and in those contests their average point differential was -8.6PPG which is 29th worst in the NBA. The Magic are just 1-10 SU their last eleven road games and their road point differential of -3.4PPG on the season is in the bottom half of the league. It looks like Evan Fournier and Aaron Gordon will be out for the Magic tonight which is just too much to overcome against the red hot Bulls. Lay the points. 

PLAY ON: #504 Indiana Pacers (+5) over Cleveland Cavaliers, 7PM ET - When these two teams last met in Cleveland on Nov 1 the Cavs were a 10-point favorite and lost 107-124. The natural swing of the line should make the Cavs favored here but not by this many points. The inflation of the number of course has to do with the Cavs current 13 game winning streak. But did you know that in that stretch of game the Cavs are just 6-7 ATS AND they've only played two teams with winning record. In fact, the combined records of the eleven losing teams the Cavs have beaten in this run is 89-172 so it's really not as impressive as you might think. Cleveland continues to be over-valued by the oddsmakers which is evident in their 3-16-1 ATS record as a favorite this season. Indiana has been a pleasant surprise this year at 14-11 SU, 8-4 at home. They've beaten the Raptors, Pistons and Spurs at home already this season so they can certainly beat this Cavs team. Indiana has covered 12 of the last 16 meetings with Cavaliers and will get it done tonight. 

ASA PLAY ON: OVER 218 Orlando Magic @ Charlotte Hornets, 7PM ET - These two teams want to play fast and that makes for a very high scoring game. Orlando is the 6th fastest paced team in the league while the Hornets are 10th. Last season the Hornets were 19th fastest paced team but have made a concentrated effort to increase offensive possessions this year. Orlando is a top 10 scoring team this season at 108PPG and have topped 100 points in 19 of their 24 games this season.  Charlotte has scored 100 plus points in 14 of their 21 games this season. Both teams are in the bottom half of the NBA when it comes to defensive efficiency rankings with the Hornets at 17th and the Magic 27th. Orlando played last night which helps our thought process here as their games after playing the previous night have averaged 224 total points per game. These two foes met earlier this season and combined to 233 total points which pushed their OVER record to 6-3 the last nine meetings. The bet here is OVER.

We will play ON #715 New Orleans Pelicans (-2.5) over @ Utah Jazz, 9PM ET. If you were a casual bettor and you looked at tonight's game you'd probably bet the home team here that has won 4 straight games and that's GETTING points. Utah's 9-4 SU home record is a little deceiving as only 4 of those wins came over teams with winning records. In their most recent four game winning streak they beat an awful Bulls team, good Bucks and Nuggets teams and a beat up, declining Clippers team.  We really love the fact the Pelicans are coming off an awful loss at home to the Wolves where Anthony Davis was ejected. Prior to that game the Pelicans had 3 days off so they'll be rested and ready here. Utah doesn't have the depth on the interior to match Boogie Cousins and Davis with Rudy Gobert on the shelf so points in the paint will be easy to come by for New Orleans. The Pelicans have covered 7 of eleven road games this year and will get a much need W in Utah tonight. 

Play OVER in the Washington Wizards @ Minnesota Timberwolves game, 8PM ET. - The average points scored in an NBA game this year is 211. The total on this game is set slightly higher than that but both teams averages suggest a higher scoring game. Both teams are right around the league average in pace of play with 97.5 possessions per game. When it comes to offensive efficiency ratings the Wizards rank 7th at 1.097 points per possession. Minnesota is slightly better at the 5th spot at 1.103PPP. In terms of defensive efficiency ratings the Wiz are slightly better than average while the Wolves are far worse with the 4th worst DEFF team in the league. Last year when these two teams faced off they produced total points of 223 and 217, both overs. When both teams are playing with rest they tend to score more too. The oddsmakers are suggesting this will be an 'average' NBA scoring game but the key stats suggest otherwise. PLAY OVER!

ASA play on: San Antonio Spurs (-1.5) over Charlotte Hornets, 7PM ET - The Bugs are coming off a very tough loss last night to the Cavaliers by a point and this marks their 3rd game in four nights, second of a back to back. San Antonio meanwhile is rested AND coming off a loss so expect a bounce back here. As you would expect the Spurs have a decisive advantage defensively with the 6th best defensive efficiency unit and the overall efficiency differential. The Spurs have been dealing with a multitude of injuries this season but are now starting to get healthy sans Kawhi Leonard. We expect a Hornets team to have a hard time getting back up tonight to play another A level team after last night's road loss. Charlotte is just 15-20-1 ATS since 2015 when playing without rest. Play on San Antonio.

ASA 10* PLAY ON: New York Knicks (+8) over Toronto Raptors, 7:35PM ET - If you haven't noticed this Knicks team is much better than the past few editions and we like them as a dog here against the Raptors. Toronto is solid 3-game road trip with a pair of wins over Houston and New Orleans, face New York tonight and have Washington up next. Don't be surprised if the Raptors overlook Knicks here as they've beaten them 7 straight times. New York made some changes in the offseason and it's paying off. The Knicks have won 5 of their last seven games, and 7 of ten. Last season in two meetings on this floor the Raptors were favored by 7.5 and 10-points respectively. Tonight they are laying 8-points to the improved Knicks. Last year the Knicks finished the season with an overall offensive efficiency rating of 107.8 and a defensive efficiency rating of 111.6 (difference of -3.8). This year those numbers have improved to 110.2 (OEFF) and 108.7 (DEFF) for a difference of +1.5. So a better team is getting the same value here tonight. New York's improved field goal percentage defense will be the difference here. Grab the points!

We like the Orlando Magic (+5) over the Portland Trailblazers, 10PM ET - These two teams have some similar season numbers in regards to efficiency ratings with the one exception being the Blazers advantage in defensive efficiency. But we temper those numbers considering the Blazers have played the 2nd easiest schedule in the NBA. Portland had the 24th worst defensive efficiency rating a year ago but are 3rd this year, which again is very misleading based on the schedule. Orlando is a top 10 team in terms of overall efficiency differentials and have played an 'average' schedule giving us a true indicator of where they stand. In their last five road games the Magic are 3-2 SU with two solid wins over Memphis and New Orleans. They lost most recently in Denver on the second night of a back to back and in Golden State. We like them to bounce back here against Portland who is 5-4 SU at home but only two of those wins came against teams with current winning records. The Blazers have a home point differential of just +2.4PPG while the Magic are 1 of just twelve teams in the league with a positive road differential (+1.9PPG). The number on this game is simply too high and we won't be surprised when Orlando wins outright. 

ASA PLAY ON: Toronto Raptors (+6.5) over Houston Rockets, 8PM ET - We like the points here with a good Raptors team coming off a loss against a Rockets team laying an inflated number. First off, the Rockets have won 6 straight but the wins aren't that impressive (Knicks, Hawks, Jazz, Cavs, Grizzlies and Pacers) who are a combined 12 games under .500. Now they step up against a Raptors team that is every bit as talented and motivated off a loss. These two teams are very similar in terms of offensive efficiency but the Rockets surprisingly are better in defensive efficiency ratings. The Raptors were 11th in DEFF a season ago and will trend back to those numbers as the season goes on. Toronto was one of just six teams in the entire NBA a year ago to have a positive road point differential, so this veteran team is certainly capable of winning anywhere in the NBA. The Raptors are a contender in the East and are getting too many points here considering the Rockets were just minus -6.5 points against the Jazz and minus -5.5 points against the Cavs who are not playing as well as Toronto right now (similar in OEFF but drastic difference in DEFF). The Raptors were plus +2.5 points less than a month ago in San Antonio. Against the better teams in the league the Raptors have road results of: -4 points @ San Antonio, -5 points at Golden State, -1 point at Boston.  Easy call here with the value and Toronto Raptors. 

We will PLAY ON the Minnesota Timberwolves (-3.5) over the Utah Jazz. We feel this is a short enough number to lay on the road with the Wolves who are coming off two straight road losses and will look to bounce back here. Minnesota hasn't played great overall defense this year but are trending in the right direction. They held three straight foes to under 100 points before playing the fast paced Suns and high scoring Warriors. Tonight they face a Utah Jazz team really struggling with their shooting. The Jazz have shot just 43.1% on the year which is 27th in the NBA. In their last five games they've hit less than 40% of their field goal attempts and have averaged just 99PPG. What makes matters worse for the Jazz is that they recently lost Rudy Gobert to a knee injury which takes away one of the league's best defensive centers.  Utah has lost 3 of their last four home games with the lone win coming their last time out against the Nets who are again one of the league's worst teams. Minnesota has won 3 of their last six road games (Pelicans, Heat and Thunder) and all three were over better teams than tonight's Jazz team. Based on trending efficiency numbers we like the Wolves to get a 10-point win here. 

We will play on the Orlando Magic (-3.5) over the Phoenix Suns, 9PM ET - It seems strange to be laying points on the road with the Magic but it's absolutely warranted here. Orlando has some very good metrics this season that may surprise a lot of casual bettors. The Magic are 9th in overall efficiency differential at +3.6 in the NBA while the Suns are dead last at -9.7. Orlando is in the top half of the league in offensive efficiency ratings, compared to the Suns who are bottom 5. The Magic are a top 5 offensive efficiency team, Phoenix is in the bottom 3. You can see for yourself these two teams are further apart based on efficiency differentials than the actual pointspread is tonight. Orlando is already 3-2 SU on the road this season and the three wins have come over much better teams than the Suns tonight (Grizzlies, Pelicans and Cavaliers). Phoenix has lost 4 straight games, 3 of which were by double-digits and two were home games against the Nets and Heat. Orlando is one of the better shooting teams in the league at 49% while the Suns struggle to shoot at just 43% and that will be a big factor in tonight's outcome. The Magic have covered 5 of the last six meetings against the Suns. Lay the points with Orlando. 

ASA PLAY UNDER 216.5 Oklahoma City Thunder @ Denver Nuggets, 10:35PM ET. The oddsmakers are projecting these two teams to score more than the league average of 211.4PPG but the metrics say differently. In fact, our computer analytics suggest 209.6 points in this contest. OKC is below average in terms of offensive efficiency ratings at 1.053 points per possession while the Nuggets are the league average at 1.072PPP. On the defensive side of the ball the Thunder are the second best defensive efficiency team in the league allowing jus t .992PPP. The Nuggets give up 1.067PPP which is slightly worse than the league average of 1.057PPP. The Thunder allow the least amount of points in the paint this season while the Nuggets are 11th. Meaning, no easy buckets for opponents. Neither team plays especially fast so it's not like we have to worry about a track meet here either. Denver is coming off two of the leagues fastest paced teams in the league in Golden State and Brooklyn and the results of those games have driven this Total higher than it should be. OKC and their opponents have combined to score more than 217 just two times this season. Nuggets on 7-2 home under run, OKC under 4 straight road games. 

PLAY ON: MIAMI HEAT - We will grab the points with the Miami Heat over the Golden State Warriors. The Heat are off a road win yesterday against the Clippers and will be playing without rest here, but the Warriors aren't in the best scheduling situation either. Golden State is off a 3-game road trip with their last game coming in the higher attitude of Denver AND they have a big TV game on deck versus the Wolves. Miami was 18-23 SU on the road last year and had the 10th best road differential in the league (tied with the Cavaliers) at minus -1.8PPG. Golden State had the best home point differential in the NBA a season ago at +15.9PPG but they are just 2-2 SU at home this year, 0-4 ATS. Miami can contend here because they defend the 3-point line (4th in league a year ago) as good as anyone in the NBA. Last season the Warriors won their home game against the Heat by 12 and Miami beat them in South Beach. The Heat were 10-4 ATS last year as a road dog of 7+ points. Grab the points with Miami.

PLAY ON: GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS (-) over LA Clippers, 10:30 PM ET - We will lay the points with the Golden State Warriors over the LA Clippers. I like the Clippers to be better than most experts are predicting but they aren't one of the best teams in the NBA either. Sure, they've gotten off to a 4-1 SU start without Chris Paul but they've also played Phoenix and the Lakers, two of the worst teams a year ago. The Warriors are just 4-3 SU on the season and coming off a home loss to the Pistons. Golden State has faced four playoff teams from a year ago and a much improved Pelicans team. Golden State is 15-3 SU off a loss their last eighteen games and are laying a marginal number here on the road considering their road point differential from a year ago was +7.4PPG (best in NBA). Golden State was 31-10 SU away in the regular season a year ago and is on a 38-11 SU streak as a road chalk. The Clippers aren't home dogs very often, just 7 times last year, but they were just 2-5 SU, 3-4ATS in that role. The clincher here is the dominance of the Warriors over the Clippers in recent years with a 10-0 SU record, which includes 4-0 last year with all 4 wins coming by double digits. The  two games played on this court were 13 and 17 point margins in favor of Golden State. Lay the points on the road with GST.

ASA PLAY UNDER 204 Utah Jazz @ Phoenix Suns, 10PM ET - Wait what, you're playing Under in a game with a team (Phoenix) that allows 125PPG? Yes, the Suns are the worst defensive efficiency team in the NBA and are giving up 1.184 points per possession  BUT they've also played the 7th, 8th and 9th highest scoring teams in the NBA this season. Now they face a Jazz team averaging just 95.8PPG which is the second lowest number in the league. Phoenix made a coaching change and it looks like new head coach Jay Triano is holding his young players to a much higher standard. The Suns were trying to play as fast as they possible could and in the process they were playing sloppy, bad basketball. In their first two games they attempted 89 and 92 field goal attempts but in their most recent game they attempted just 77 field goals. Utah is the SLOWEST paced team in the NBA in terms of pace of play and a top 10 team in defensive efficiency ratings allowing just 1.022 points per possession. The Under has cashed in 18 of the last 26 meetings overall and 4 of the last five in Phoenix which have averaged just 189.2PPG. Bet UNDER! 

Play on: Boston Celtics (+2) over @ Philadelphia 76ers, 7PM ET - The Celtics clearly suffered a huge blow on the opening night of the season when they lost Gordon Hayward and then were beaten by the Cavaliers. They returned home to face the up-and-coming Bucks at home and lost outright as a small chalk. Philly meanwhile lost at Washington and have core of young exciting talent on the roster. But has the 76ers roster improved that much they should be favored over the team that had the best overall record in the East last year? Granted, the Celtics have a new roster and lost Hayward, but Philly was a favorite just TWO TIMES all last season. In fact, the 76ers have been instilled as a chalk by the oddsmakers just 6 times in the past two full seasons! Boston is off two straight losses (24-13 65% SU off a 'L' last year) to start the season (versus playoff teams) and now step way down in talent here. The 76ers don't have anyone that can guard Kyrie Irving here yet Boston has Horford to defend Embiid. Easy bet on Boston.

We are going to play on the Golden State Warriors minus the points over the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight in Game 5. Before the series started we predicted a Warriors sweep or win in 5 games and we'll stick with that thought process. The first two games were dominated by the Warriors at home with a total differential of plus + 41 points. Just because the Cavs won the last game in this series doesn't mean they've suddenly turned their 'defensive ship' around and can stop the Warriors here. GST had a +15.0 point differential at home during the regular season and are averaging +17.9PPG at home in the playoffs. Cleveland is allowing 1.11 points per possession in the Playoffs after allowing 1.104PPP during the regular season. In case you don't remember this from previous posts, that defensive efficiency rating of 1.104PPP ranked them in the bottom third of the NBA this season. I'm not going to be fooled by the Cavs win in the previous game as the stars aligned perfectly for them and they made shots (at home) and benefitted from 22 free throw attempts in the first quarter. FYI - the league record for most attempts in a quarter in NBA HISTORY is 32. Back at home the Warriors will shoot better as they averaged 50% shooting on their home court and allowed opponents to hit just 43%. Golden State perfect 7-0 SU at home off a loss this year and bounce back here to end the series. 

We will play UNDER 228.5 in the Golden State Warriors @ Cleveland Cavaliers Game 4 Friday. Looking closely at Game 3 we see some indicators that suggest a lower scoring game even though that game went over the number. Combined in Game 3 the two teams attempted 173 field goals which is just 3 more than the league average of 170. The regular season average for total points scored in games was 211. Granted, these two teams make a lot of 3's which alters the baseline statistics but even with 28 made 3-pointers in the last game it still barely when over the number. The  oddsmakers have been forced to adjust their number even higher for Game 4 which gives us more value with an UNDER wager. The Warrior games away from home this full season averaged 219PPG while the Cavalier home games averaged 218PPG. The math says under along with value. 

We will play the Cleveland Cavaliers (+4) at home over Golden State in Game 3 Wednesday, 8PM ET. The Warriors were obviously very good to us in the first two games of this series and we do have Golden State as our series bet but if there is one game the Cavs will win it's this one. Here's what we saw in our break down of Game 2. As the game wore on the Cavs started grabbing and holding the Warriors more and more, especially Steph Curry, and the officials swallowed their whistles. Last year, the Cavs big turning point is the series was when Dellavedova employed his 'mugging' mentality against Curry and held him to 22PPG in the Finals. On Wednesday night we expect Curry to essentially get assaulted by Cleveland and doubt the officials are going to call much. When you are watching the game pay close attention to the Warrior players OFF the ball and you'll see what I'm talking about. Yes, the Warriors were a fantastic road team this year with a 37-10 SU record, but the Cavs were 36-11 SU at home and are off two humiliating losses. Last year in a similar setting the Cavs won Game 3 at home by 30 as a -1.5 point favorite. Based on the season long numbers the Cavs shouldn't be this big of an underdog here given these circumstances. In the past two season's the Cavs have produced a 25-5 SU (83%) record when playing at home and off a loss in their previous game.  Cleveland has been  the most efficient offense in the playoffs at home this season by averaging 1.213 points per possession and they have a home differential of +8.3PPG. LeBron will get every call imaginable tonight and the Cavs steal a game in the series. 

ASA PLAY ON: Golden State Warriors (-8.5) over Cleveland Cavaliers, Game 2 Sun, 8 ET - We will play ON the Golden State Warriors again minus the points over the Cleveland Cavaliers in Game 2. This is going to sound eerily like our first writeup but our base analysis remains the same. Offensively the Warriors were the #1 ranked regular season offensive efficiency team in the league averaging 1.156 points per possession. In the playoffs, they have improved that number to 1.181PPP and that uptick comes after playing the Spurs and Jazz who were 1st and 3rd in defensive efficiency ratings. Now the Warriors face a Cleveland team that was 21st in DEFF this regular season and have been slightly better in the post-season allowing 1.083PPP, which would still have ranked them 11th in the regular season. Don't forget the slight post-season improvement came against a Raptor and Celtics team missing their All-Star points guards in Lowry and Thomas. Defensively there is no comparison between these two teams, which was very apparent in Game 1, as the Warriors had the 2nd best defensive efficiency rating in the NBA during the regular season, allowing just 1.04 points per possession and they've bettered that number in the playoffs allowing just 1.018PPP. The Cavs defense was thoroughly exposed in Game 1 and they can’t just ‘flip a switch’ and be great defensively in the playoffs. It just doesn’t work that way. Also, don't be fooled into thinking the Cavs are a great bet here getting points as they were just 5-1 1 as a dog this season. When coming off a loss this year the Cavs are also just a 50/50 proposition with an 8-8 SU record. Looking at the shot chart from Game 1 we see the outcome of that game could have been much worse as the Warriors missed 20-point point-blank shots in the lane and 30 overall for the game. When LeBron and the Cavs organization assembled this roster, they should have considered some defensive minded players. In last year’s Finals the Warriors won Game 1 big then came back and blew the Cavs out by 33 in Game 2. With an average point differential of plus +16.5PPG at home this year we like the Warriors chances to get another double digit win in Game 2. Lay the points. 

You've already read everything possible on this series and have likely formed your own opinion on the series but we'll focus on Game 1 and the Total here. We will play OVER the Total here. At first glance the number on this game seems high but in reality it's not based on the regular season meeting here which had a Total of 227.5. That game was a blowout for the Warriors 126-91 which obviously stayed below the number. Golden State is coming off a series with the #1 ranked defensive efficiency team in the NBA, San Antonio, in which they scored 113, 136, 120 and 129 points. They scored 115 or more points in two of four games against Utah who was 3rd in the NBA in DEFF. Now the Warriors face a Cleveland team that was 21st in the NBA in defensive efficiency ratings allowing 1.104 points per possession. The Cavs have also put up some monster numbers offensively in the post season, including an offensive efficiency rating of 122.6 which is #1 in the playoffs. The Cavs have put up 106 or more points in every post season game and scored 130 plus in two of their last four games. Golden State is playing faster in the post-season than they did in the regular season. Cleveland is playing slightly slower in the playoffs than they did in the regular season, but again, because of their efficiency ratings they are scoring 5+ points per game more. These two teams are going to score points here and it will be enough to top the Total set on Game 1. 

We have been a steady OVER player in the playoffs and it’s paid off handsomely thus far, but tonight the numbers dictate an UNDER wager on this game. It was painfully evident the Celtics want to slow the tempo as much as possible as they feel it’s the best way to beat Cleveland. It obviously worked for most of three quarters before Kyrie went insane and lifted the Cavs to a win. These two teams combined attempted just 153 field goal attempts which is WAY below the league average of 170. Cleveland shot a ridiculous 59.5% (again due to Kyrie going 15 of 22) which helped them get to 112 points. It’s unlikely that is going to happen again based on Cleveland’s season shooting percentage of 47.4%, and Boston’s FG% defense that allowed 45.3% on the year. In Boston’s case, we would expect similar numbers as Game 4 as they shot just below their season averages, but again are without their leading scorer in Isaiah Thomas. The tempo is the key here and it looks like Boston has committed to slowing the pace as much as possible. The UNDER is now 7-1 the last eight meetings between these two teams in Beantown. We’re betting UNDER!

ASA OVER 215 Boston @ Cleveland, 8:35PM ET Tuesday - We will play OVER in the Boston @ Cleveland Game 4 Tuesday. The Totals on the first two games of this series were 218.5 and 219 then the number dropped to 214 for Game 3 with the news that Isaiah Thomas was out for Boston. The Celtics have averaged 106PPG in the playoffs and have been very efficient averaging 1.115 points per possession. The Cleveland Cavaliers, who have simply been on fire offensively in the playoffs, are averaging 1.214 points per possession (tops in the playoffs) and 116.3PPG. In 7 of their eleven playoff games they’ve scored 115 or more points and if they get to that number today this game goes OVER easily. In Game #3 the Cavs scored 108 points but only took 70 shots to get there and LeBron James had an abnormally low scoring game of just 11-points. Clearly James is going to put up points here as he's averaging over 32PPG in the post season. Boston and opponents averaged 210 total points per game on the road this year and Cav home games averaged 218. Our Math Model projects 220 total points being scored here.  

We will play OVER in the Boston @ Cleveland Game 3 Sunday. The Totals on the first two games of this series were 218.5 and 219 but this number has dropped to the 214 range as of this posting. The drop is due to the Celtics Isaiah Thomas being out for the playoffs with a hip injury. Granted, Thomas is Boston’s leading scorer but in this game, we feel if the Celtics can get to 100 to 105 points this game goes over. The Celtics have averaged 106PPG in the playoffs and have been very efficient averaging 1.115 points per possession. On the other bench is the Cleveland Cavaliers who have simply been on fire offensively in the playoffs. The Cavs are averaging 1.214 points per possession (tops in the playoffs) and 116.3PPG. In 7 of their ten playoff games they’ve scored 115 or more points and if they get to that number today this game goes OVER. Boston and opponents averaged 210 total points per game on the road this year and Cav home games averaged 218. Boston is on a 7-2 OVER streak when coming off a loss while Cleveland is 11-4 OVER their last fifteen off a win. The wager to make here is OVER!

UNDER 214 in the Golden State Warriors @ San Antonio Spurs Game 3 Saturday, 9PM ET. You’re not going to like this bet but it’s the right one to make. Public money is currently pouring in on the 'over' for this contest, but despite that, the line on the game has dipped down a little. That's an indication the smart players are on the 'under' and we couldn't agree more. These two teams were 1st and 2nd in the regular season in defensive efficiency ratings as both allowed 1.05 points per possession.  Not surprising, they were also the top two in the league in effective field goal percentage defense, two of just four teams in the entire league to allow less than 50% eFG%.  In the opener, these two teams attempted just 165 total field goals which is more than 5 less than the league average and should have produced less than 211 (league average) total points but didn’t. In Game 2 these same two teams combined for 189 FG attempts but it was a blowout from the start and the Warriors shot it at a ridiculous rate. Golden State was 50 of 89 from the field overall or 56.2% and made 18 of 37 3’s, both numbers substantially higher than their season averages. The Spurs 100 FG attempts were largely attributed to the fact they were getting blown out early and had to play catch up. When these two teams have met in San Antonio in the past the UNDER has cashed 6 of the last seven meetings. Plug your nose and bet under!

Play ON the Cleveland Cavaliers (-5) over the Boston Celtics, Fri 8:30PM ET. Yes, we know we are laying a premium price here based on the regular season meetings and earlier rounds of this playoffs, but we feel it's warranted. During the regular season the Cavs won 3 of four meetings and the last meeting was a Cleveland win by 23 on this same court. The Cavs unveiled some different defensive strategies against Thomas, and held Boston to just 91 points. In Game 1 the Cavaliers dominated the Celtics and the final score was misleading as Cleveland lead by as many as 28-points in the game. What stands out is how “poorly” the Cavs shot from beyond the arc as they hit “just” 38.8% from 3. In the post season, they are shooting just under 43% from the 3-point line. Boston had decent numbers in Game 1 and were still blown out by this Cavs team that is on a mission. Cleveland is 9-0 in the post season with an average point differential of +9.6PPG which is second only to Golden State's +17-point differential in the Playoffs. The Cavs playoff ROAD point differential or average margin of victory is 9.3PPG. If there was a game Boston was going to win this series it’s this one but we’re not about to go against this Cleveland team right now. 

We will play ON the Cleveland Cavaliers in Game 1 over the Boston Celtics, Weds 7:30PM ET. Yes, we know we are laying a premium price here based on the regular season meetings and earlier rounds of this playoffs, but we feel it's warranted. Boston is coming off that grueling 7-game series with Washington and have just 1-day rest. Cleveland meanwhile has been off since May 7th and comes into this game fresh. During the regular season the Cavs won 3 of four meetings and the most recent meeting was a Cleveland win by 23 on this same court. I went back and watched that game and what stood out to me, is how the Cavs unveiled some different defensive strategies against Thomas, and how they held Boston to just 91 points. There are some bad matchups in this game for the Celtics and the Cavs have had a ton of time to figure out the best way to exploit those advantages. Cleveland is 8-0 in the post season with an average point differential of +9.6PPG which is second only to Golden State's +14.9 point differential in the Playoffs. The Cavs playoff ROAD point differential or average margin of victory is 9.3PPG. Given the circumstances we will lay the points with Cleveland on the road here.

 We will play OVER in the Cleveland Cavaliers versus the Boston Celtics, Weds 7:30PM ET. 

We will play UNDER 210 in the San Antonio Spurs @ Golden State Warriors Game 2 Tuesday, 9PM ET. Public money is currently pouring in on the 'over' for this contest, but despite that, the line on the game has dipped down a little. That's an indication the smart players are on the 'under' and we couldn't agree more. In Game 1 the Spurs jumped all over the Warriors and seemed to be cruising to an easy victory. Then Kawhi Leonard was injured and it looked like the Alamo all over again for San Antonio.  In Game 1 the Spurs had put up 76 points in 28 minutes with Leonard in the game. After he was hurt the Spurs offense really struggled and they managed just 35 points in 20 minutes without him. And let's not forget they don't have Tony Parker here either. These two teams were 1st and 2nd in the regular season in defensive efficiency ratings as both allowed 1.05 points per possession.  Not surprising, they were also the top two in the league in effective field goal percentage defense, two of just four teams in the entire league to allow less than 50% eFG%.  In the opener these two teams attempted just 165 total field goals which is more than 5 less than the league average. San Antonio knows that to have any chance at winning this game they HAVE to slow the tempo and might try to play 'Big Ball' with Gasol and Aldridge on the floor at the same time. The two most recent regular season meetings between these two powerhouses ended with 208 and 192 total points which would obviously cash tonight. Bet UNDER here!

OVER 211 in the Washington Wizards at Boston Celtics, Game 7 Monday 8PM ET. We hit our last OVER bet in this series in Game 5 and will come right back with the same wager here. These two teams want to play fast and push the tempo on every possession. The Wiz were 11th in the NBA in pace of play while the Celts were 13th during the regular season. Both of these teams were top nine in the NBA during the regular season in offensive efficiency ratings with each team scoring 1.112 points per possession. But during the playoffs, Boston has been even more efficient averaging 1.123PPP while Washington is slightly less at 1.108PPP. On the other end of the court, the Wizards were 20th in the league in defensive efficiency allowing 1.094PPP which is nearly identical to what they are allowing in the post season. Boston was 13th in the league in DEFF during the regular season but in the post-season they are giving up 1.091PPP which would rank them 18th in the regular season. In summary, both teams will plays fast, score points and allow them and this total is set right around league average. The first two games of the series in Boston these two teams finished with 234 and 248 total points. Of course Game 2 was an overtime affair but at the end of the 4th quarter these two teams had totaled 228 points. In Game 5 these two teams totaled 224 total points which could have been higher had it been a closer game throughout. Washington's defense is atrocious on the road all season long and there is no reason to expect a dramatic improvement tonight. Boston has shot over 51% in the three home games of this rivalry and should 'get buckets' again tonight. Bet OVER!

ASA PLAY ON 10* Golden State -9.5 over San Antonio, Sunday at 4:30 PM ET

We like a focused, rested and motivated Warriors team to get a big home win to open this series. Let's face it the Warriors haven't been tested but will be here so we'll get a max effort. Golden State had a home average point differential of +15.9PPG at home this year which was the best number in the NBA. In the playoffs at home that differential is +16PPG.  They have won 7 of their 8 playoff games thus far by at least 10 points.  Granted, the Spurs are better than the teams they've faced but San Antonio is coming off two very hard fought series against Memphis and Houston and are without Parker and a less than 100% Leonard. Golden State on the other hand is rested and ready to make a statement in game 1.  The regular season meetings really don't tell us much as both teams rested players but the current situation clearly favors Golden State.  Surprisingly, since the start of the 2015 season, 7 of the 9 meetings between these 2 have been decided by at least 10 points.  We call for Golden State to keep that trend alive today.  This line may seem high but is it?  Just a few days ago San Antonio was an 8.5 point underdog @ Houston in Game 6.  Now laying just one point more with the Warriors in a much better situation is hardly too many points.  Lay in in Sunday with Golden State.

Play OVER 216 in the Boston Celtics @ Washington Wizards, Game 6 Friday 8PM ET. These two teams want to play fast which is great for OVER bettors and we don’t see these two teams slowing down tonight. The Wiz were 11th in the NBA in pace of play while the Celts were 13th. Both teams were top nine in the NBA during the regular season in offensive efficiency ratings with each team scoring 1.112 points per possession. But during the playoffs both teams are even more efficient averaging 1.123PPP. On the other end of the court, the Wizards were 20th in the league in defensive efficiency allowing 1.094PPP which is nearly identical to what they are allowing in the post season. Boston was 13th in the league in DEFF during the regular season but in the post-season they are giving up 1.104PPP which would rank them 21st in the regular season. In summary, both teams will play fast, score points and allow them and this total is set just a few points higher than the league average. Four of the five games in this series have ended with more than 215 total points and the most recent meeting had 178 FG attempts (league average 170) which resulted in 224 total points. Of course, Game 2 was an overtime affair but at the end of the 4th quarter these two teams had totaled 228 points. The Celtics best offensive weapon is Isaiah Thomas who averaged 28.9PPG on the season and for him to be most effective the Celtics have to play faster and with space so he can penetrate to score. In other words, Boston will not change their game strategy on the road even though Washington’s best asset offensively is playing fast too. Washington’s John Wall has had a fantastic playoff thus far and he’ll dictate a faster pace for the Wiz at home tonight in this elimination game. 

Play OVER 213.5 San Antonio Spurs @ Houston Rockets, 8:35PM ET Thursday – Houston is going to dictate tempo here at home and force the Spurs into a faster paced game. Houston was the second fastest paced team in the league at home which resulted in an average of 117PPG, also 2nd highest in the NBA. The Spurs preferred to play slow on the road but because they are so efficient (4th best on the road) they still managed to average 105PPG away from home. In three of the five games of this series, one of the two teams has scored 120+ and there is no reason to expect a change in that trend in Game 6. The pace of play numbers support an OVER bet here too as these two teams have gone from 171 field goal attempts in Games 1 & 2 to 174 in Game 3, 184 in Game 4 and 189 in Game 5 (granted OT). All of those games are more than the regular season league average of 170 and let’s not forget the total points scored per game during the season is 211. The case being here is we get 170 field goal attempts we should see more than 211 total points as these two teams are 3rd (Houston) and 9th (Spurs) in effective FG% shooting. Houston is 1st in the league in 3-pointers attempted per game and the Spurs are the best 3-point shooting team in the NBA. Again, the point we’re making is that we don’t necessarily need a fast-paced game to win an OVER bet when the number on this game is barely higher than league average. The OVER has won in 5 of the last six meetings. BET OVER!

Play OVER 215 in the Washington Wizards at Boston Celtics, Game 5 Wednesday 8PM ET. These two teams want to play fast which is fine with us as we'll take advantage with an OVER wager here. The Wiz were 11th in the NBA in pace of play while the Celts were 13th. Both of these teams were top nine in the NBA during the regular season in offensive efficiency ratings with each team scoring 1.112 points per possession. But during the playoffs both teams are even more efficient averaging 1.123PPP. On the other end of the court, the Wizards were 20th in the league in defensive efficiency allowing 1.094PPP which is nearly identical to what they are allowing in the post season. Boston was 13th in the league in DEFF during the regular season but in the post-season they are giving up 1.104PPP which would rank them 21st in the regular season. In summary, both teams will plays fast, score points and allow them and this total is set just a few points higher than the league average. Three of the four games in this series have ended with more than 215 total points with the first two games of the series in Boston finishing with 234 and 248 total points. Of course Game 2 was an overtime affair but at the end of the 4th quarter these two teams had totaled 228 points. The Celtics best offensive weapon is Isaiah Thomas who averaged 28.9PPG on the season and scored 33 and 53 in the two games of this series in Boston. In the two games in Washington he managed just 13 and 19 points respectively. He'll get back on track here and help Boston put up points in Game 5. Washington and John Wall are going to get there share too. Easy call with OVER THE TOTAL!

Play OVER Houston Rockets @ San Antonio Spurs, 8:35PM ET Tuesday - We are going contrarian here and not ‘zagging’ when most bettors will probably side with the UNDER here, but not us. In three of the four games of this series, one of the two teams has scored 120+ and there is no reason to expect a change in that trend in Game 5. The pace of play numbers support an OVER bet here too as these two teams have gone from 171 field goal attempts in Games 1 & 2 to 174 in Game 3 and 184 in Game 4. All of those games are more than the regular season league average of 170 and let’s not forget the total points scored per game during the season is 211. The case being here is we get 170 field goal attempts we should see more than 211 total points as these two teams are 3rd (Houston) and 9th (Spurs) in effective FG% shooting. Houston is 1st in the league in 3-pointers attempted per game and the Spurs are the best 3-point shooting team in the NBA. Again, the point we’re making is that we don’t necessarily need a fast paced game to win an OVER bet when the number on this game is barely higher than league average. The OVER has won in 6 of the last eight meetings between these two teams on this court. BET OVER!

We play OVER 206 in the Golden State Warriors @ Utah Jazz, 8PM ET Monday. Game 2 of this series went over rather easily and we predict a similar flow and output in Game 4 tonight. The results of Game 3 has provided us with value here on an over wager as these two teams produced just 193 points in the last meeting. They attempted 161 shots which is lower than the league average of 170 but let's not forget this number is essentially 3 baskets lower than the league average for total points scored per game (211). In Game 3 we had two abnormally bad shooting nights for both Steph Curry (6 of 20) and Klay Thompson (1 of 9) which clearly helped that game from being higher scoring. Those two combined were just 3 of 14 from beyond the arc which is unheard of. As a team the Warriors shot just 44% which is below their season average of 47.8% that they shoot on the road this year. The Warriors made just 9 of their 30 (30%) 3-point attempts too which is also lower than their season average of 35.8% away from home.  As far as the Jazz are concerned they also had a poor shooting night as they were just 30 of 77 from the field or 39% which is DRASTICALLY lower than their season average of 46.8% at home.  They also shot 31.8% from 3 which is lower than the 38.4% they shot all year long on their home court. This series has a strong under trend but we'll play contrarian and bet OVER here!

**ASA NBA PICKS OVERALL 18-7 RUN, 11-4 L14 AND CURRENT 10-2 O/U STREAK! Get a long term package today and SAVE!**

UNDER 212 in the Cleveland Cavaliers at Toronto Raptors game, 3:30Pm ET. The pace of play numbers has dropped in every game of this series and we expect that trend to continue. In the opener, these two teams finished with 174 field goal attempts, Game 2 was 165 and then 163 in Game 3. Remember, the league average for FG attempts in a game is 170 and the league average for points scored per game in the regular season was 211. In other words, this game has a ‘average’ point total (212) but the teams have played slower than league average in two of the three games. The main reason two of the three games have gone over the total is due to the Cavs shooting success as they hit over 54 percent overall and from beyond the arc. What’s surprising about that is the fact the Raptors had the 8th best FG% defense in the NBA this year and were 11th in defensive efficiency ratings. Also, the Cavs have shot dramatically better in the last two games of this series than their overall season averages and we can’t expect that success to continue. When these two have squared off recently in Toronto they have totaled less than today’s number in 4 of the last five meetings. Bet UNDER here. 

ASA play on the Houston Rockets (-5) over San Antonio Spurs, Game 3 Friday, 9:30PM ET. We successfully played on the Spurs in Game 2 but will flip side here with a wager on the Rockets at home. Houston played well for three quarters in the previous meeting and entered the 4th quarter down just 5-points. But unfortunately for them, the Spurs outscored them 33-13 in the 4th. San Antonio was in a must win situation at home and off and embarrassing loss so it was expected they play well in Game 2. The Spurs shot nearly 55% from the field but we doubt they can repeat that performance on the road tonight. In their 3 road games against an average Memphis team, they averaged 45% shooting from the field and went 1-2 SU. Now they travel to Houston to face a Rockets team off a poor overall showing where James Harden managed just 13-points. The Rockets have won 10 of their last twelve home games and were a perfect 3-0 SU against the Thunder in the opening round. Houston was 30-11 SU at home this year with the second best average home differential of +8.9PPG and they won 7 of nine at home when off a SU loss. Tony Parker of the Spurs was playing EXTREMELY well in the post-season and his loss will affect the team’s regular rotation. Houston gets a double-digit win here. Lay it!

Play on Washington Wizards (-5) over Boston Celtics, 7PM ET - The Wiz are obviously down 0-2 in the series and backed into a corner here. Washington has played really well in stretches against the Celtics in the first two games, but unfortunately for them they couldn't sustain it for four quarters. Now back at home, where they were 30-11 SU with an average point differential of +4.9PPG, they'll get the added energy from their home crowd to finish quarters. The home team has won and covered all six meeting this season between these two teams and there's no reason to think that will change here. Not to mention, the Wizard are 17-4 SU, 12-9 ATS this season when playing at home off a loss. Boston has shot the lights out the first two games of this series by making over 51% of their field goal attempts and a combined 32 three-pointers. On the season the C's have averaged 45% shooting when playing on the road so don't expect them to continue on their torrid shooting streak in Washington. The value on this game is not what it should be and we know we are laying a premium price but it's warranted here in this situation. Take the Wizard minus the points. 

ASA play on the Golden State Warriors (-13) over the Utah Jazz. At first glance this seems like a daunting number for a second-round playoff game but it’s not. The Warriors are rested, dialed in and on a mission. The Jazz should let down here after a HUGE emotional road win over the Clippers. Golden State is 19-7 SU against top 10 teams in the NBA this season. Utah in that same comparison is just 14-19 SU against that level of competition this season. Granted, that’s straight up and not against the spread but it’s also a solid indicator of how these teams do against the league’s best teams. The Warriors were 36-5 SU at home this year with a ridiculous average point differential of plus +15.9PPG. They opened the playoffs with a 12-point and 29-point home wins over the Blazers.  In the two regular season meetings between these two teams on this court the Warriors won the first meeting by 30-points. The second meeting was one of the last games of the season and the Warriors rested players in a throw away game, which resulted in a Jazz 6-point win. When you talk about the Jazz the first thing mentioned is defense. Utah had the 3rd best defensive efficiency in the NBA allowing just 1.053 points per possession. The problem is that Golden State is better in that same category allowing just 1.040PPP. Offensively, there is not comparison as the Warriors rank 1st in offensive efficiency averaging 1.156PPP while the Jazz are 13th at 1.096PPP. Golden State has covered 6 of the last seven at home against the Jazz and Game #1 is going to be a blowout!

ASA play on UNDER 218 Washington Wizards @ Boston Celtics, 8PM ET - There are several indicators here that tells us to bet the 'under' and we'll trust the process. For those of you that have followed us for any amount of time you know we are 'law of averages' guys and focus on the 'norm' not the moment. In Game #1 of this series the Wizards shot over 50% overall and made 10 of 23 3's for 43.5%. Those numbers are WELL above their season averages of 47.4% and 36.9%. The same can be said for Boston. The Celtics shot over 51% overall from the field in Game #1 and made 19 of 39 3-pointers for 48.7%. Boston was 16th in the NBA in overall FG% by shooting 45.5% for the year. From beyond the arc, the C's shot just 35.9% which was 14th in the league and they averaged 12 made 3's per game. Another indicator that the first game of this series was abnormally high scoring was their pace of play. Combined they attempted 177 field goals which is only 7 more than the league average. When we put the numbers through our Math Model it suggests the total on this game should be 214, which was what Game #1 opened at, and is where this number should be set. With the vast majority of the public betting 'over' right now we'll be contrarian and bet UNDER!

ASA Play on: Cleveland Cavaliers (-6.5) over Toronto Raptors, 7PM ET - I'm not going to lie, this wager for us has been brewing since October 28th when these two teams met in Toronto and we bet the Raptors +2.5 points at home over the Cavs. Going into that game, the Raptors had all summer to stew after losing to the Cavs in the playoffs last year, and looked like a perfect opportunity to wager on the Raps as a home dog. But Cleveland won by 3-points  and then proceeded to win the next two regular season meetings, before losing at the end of the season in a meaningless game at home (evidence it was meaningless as the Raptors were favored by 3 points on the road). Now the Cavs are laying a reasonable number at home considering the Raptors were just a 2-point dog in Milwaukee who is far worse than Cleveland. The Cavaliers were tied with the Spurs during the regular season with the 4th best point differential in the NBA at home of +8.1PPG. They are 75-19 SU at home the past two seasons and have a 15-10 ATS record at home in the playoffs the last two years. Since 2013 the Raptors have a playoff record of 12-24-1 ATS (33.3%) which is the second worst percentage in the NBA over that span of time. The mental aspect of this game clearly favors the Cavaliers and we are betting this game plays out much like last year's playoff home games for the Cavs when they beat Toronto on this court by 31, 19 and 38 points.  When we 'tweak' a couple important variables within our math model it suggests a double digit win by Cleveland. Lay it!

ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 216 - Washington @ Boston, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

These were two of the top 8 scoring offenses this season with Boston ranking 8th and Washington 5th.  The Wiz averaged 107 PPG in their opening round series vs Atlanta yet only shot 45% from the field and 31% from deep in those 6 games.  Those numbers are far below their regular season averages of 47.5% and 37% so the fact is, despite scoring at a high rate, they didn’t shoot the ball all that well.  On the defensive end they allowed a Hawks team that averaged 103 PPG during the regular season to average 106 PPG in the series.  Atlanta didn’t shoot the ball well either hitting 45% overall and only 30% from beyond the arc.  So neither team shot very well for the series yet they still averaged 213 PPG.  Boston’s offense was definitely off kilter their first 2 games, both losses, vs Chicago.  However, once they settled in, the Celts put up 104 or more in each of their last 4 games vs the Bulls.  Chicago’s offense was putrid in those 4 games but let’s not forget the Bulls ranked near the bottom of the NBA this season in scoring and shooting percentage.  Boston will not be able to slow down the Wizards nearly as easily as they did the Bulls.  These two met four times this season and the oddsmakers set 3 of those 4 totals higher than this current number of 216.  The lowest output of those four meetings was 211 and they averaged 220 points in those four games.  The two teams combined to shoot 46% in those four games so the fact is they put up a lot of points, yet didn’t shoot light’s out.  This one goes OVER the total.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 204 - Boston @ Chicago, Friday at 8:05 PM ET

Our computer says under along with several other indicators including public money on ‘over’ but the line has dipped. In the two meetings in Chicago the total points scored has ended up being 191 and 199. There has been a poor shooting performance by one of the two teams in nearly every game of this series. The ‘under’ is 5-0 the last five clashes between these two teams in the Windy City. Celtics ‘under’ in 13 of their last 16 road games. Bulls ‘under’ in 10 of their last eleven home games against teams with winning road records. That tells us the Bulls know they must slow the pace to have a chance to win. They’ll grind tonight and keep this from being a shootout. BET UNDER!

We will play UNDER 195.5 in the Toronto Raptors @ Milwaukee Bucks game. Tipoff is 7PM ET. We hit a big UNDER wager earlier in this series in Game 3 and will come right back here with the same bet. Looking at this first round matchup we see the Bucks have scored 97 or less points in 3 of the five games. Toronto has scored 87 or less points in 3 of the five. In the most recent meeting in Toronto, these two teams combined for 211 total points but they only took 139 shots to get there. Remember, the league average for field goal attempts per game is 170 and the league average for points scored is 211. So these two clubs scored the league average but took 31 LESS FG ATTEMPTS! In other words, they shot extremely well. Had the Bucks shot their regular season average percentage on the game they score around 83 points. The same can be said for the Raptors. If they shoot 'normally' at home they score approximately 100 points. In the two games in Milwaukee the Raptors scored 77 and 87 points and shot an average of 37.5%. The Bucks put up 104 and 76 points in the two games in Milwaukee but shot nearly 53% in the game they put up 104 (regular season average 47.5%). Lots of UNDER support here as 5 straight meetings on this court between these two franchises have all stayed below the posted number.  11-4 under record the last 15 meets. Based on pace of play we expect a low scoring game.  

ASA play on UNDER 195 Utah Jazz @ LA Clippers, 10:30PM ET - This is clearly a contrarian wager on our part and we'll explain why we're on the right side here. Take a look at the actual Totals posted by Vegas on the last three games of this series. In Game 2 the Total was 199.5 and the two teams combined for 190 points. That was with 154 combined field goal attempts. In Game 3 the number is set at 197.5 which is a logical adjustment by Vegas based on the first two games. The Jazz and Clippers have hot shooting nights and combine for 217 total points but they only attempts 144 field goals. After a high scoring game you'd expect the number to go up correct? In Game 4 though, the number drops to 196 and they total 203-points. They did it again with some remarkable shooting on just 149 attempts from the field. So after two straight overs and higher scoring games the number tonight dips to the lowest of the series at 195? The key here is the pace of play statistics. The league average for FG attempts per game is 170 but these two teams have combined for 144 and 149 in two straight games. Logically, statistics say their shooting percentages return to normal and at a slower paced game we get a very low scoring contest. Both teams are very good shooting teams on the season but in the last two games they've been abnormally good. The Jazz have shot a combined 53% (season ave 46.7%) while the Clippers shot 54% in Game 3 and have made 39% of their 3's the past two games which is also higher than their season numbers. The Under has cashed 5 of the last six meetings here. Play UNDER!

ASA play OVER 220 Golden State Warriors @ Portland Trailblazers 10:30PM ET.  To begin with our Math Model projected 228 total points on this game with the big indicators here being the pace of play. In the last two games these teams have combined for 181 FG attempts in each game which is substantially higher than the league average. In comparison to the league average for points scored per game (211) and field goal attempts this total has still not been set high enough. In other words we need 'average' shooting nights from both teams to cash in. Golden State’s road efficiency numbers are off the charts as they average 1.128 points per possession which is 2nd best in the NBA. They average 113PPG on the road and in the three meeting here against the Blazers this season they put up 127, 113 and 119 points. There is no reason the Warriors don’t get to 115 plus in this game, especially considering the Blazers have the 7th worst defensive efficiency defense in the NBA allowing 1.109PPP and 108.5PPG. But to get to 220+ we’ll need the Blazers to score and we feel they will. Portland was in the top half of the league in pace of play and 8th in the NBA in scoring at 107.9PPG. All four of the regular season meetings between these two ended with 224 or more points and just 1 of the three playoff meetings has ended with less than 230 total points. 9 of the last ten meetings has ended with more total points than tonight's number so let's keep this simple and not over-think it. BET OVER!

ASA's 10* NBA PLAYOFF GAME OF THE YEAR - PLAY ON San Antonio -3.5 over Memphis, Saturday at 8:00 PM ET

We love this wager on the San Antonio Spurs over Memphis Grizzlies, Game 4 Saturday, 8PM ET. The Spurs won the first two games of the series then played poorly in Game 3 and lost to the Grizzlies by 11-points. Memphis played great in Game 3 but the margin wasn’t insurmountable for the Spurs on an off day. The Grizzlies shot nearly 51% as a team, 41% from the 3-point line, 90% from the FT line and only had 5 turnovers. We like when elite teams are coming off a bad loss and with a marginal spread here this is an easy call to lay the points with the visitor. The Spurs road record of 31-11 SU this year is better than the Grizzlies 25-17 SU record. San Antonio had an average road point differential of +6.2PPG which is better than all but 6 teams HOME differentials in the entire league. That’s amazing when you really think about it! In comparison, the Grizzlies home differential was +2.1PPG which is 21st worst in the entire league. San Antonio was 16-5 SU this season when coming off a loss and an INCREDIBLE 95-30 SU (76%) off a beat since 2012. With this line being as low as it is we are basically just asking them to win this game outright and odds are when they win it will be by more than 4-points. Memphis lost a key defensive cog with the injury to Tony Allen and that’s one less defender to slow down Kawhi Leonard. Easy call here for a wager on Coach Popp and the Spurs to bounce back with a win over a mediocre Memphis team. Lay it!

ASA Play on: Milwaukee Bucks (-1.5) over Toronto Raptors. The natural shift in this line has this number right where it should be but we felt the Bucks would be a few points higher than it is. Milwaukee outplayed the Raptors in both games in our opinion and had two 3’s rim out late in Game 2 which would have given them a lead, and could have altered that outcome putting them up 2-0 in the series. The Bucks shot just 41.4% in Game 2 after hitting 44.7% in Game 1 and now that they are back home, expect those shooting percentages to go up. On the year, the Bucks shot 47.9% at home (6th best in the NBA),  and over 37% (13th) from beyond the arc. The Bucks closed the regular season out by winning 8 of their last ten home games which included a 7-point win against this same Raptors team as a 1-point favorite. Since 2013 the Raptors have the lowest ATS winning percentage in the NBA at 28.1% (9-23-1 ATS record) so it’s not like we are playing against a franchise with a solid recent history of winning in the post season. Not to mention, one of the Raptors key players, Kyle Lowry is not known as a clutch player in the postseason. Even though he made the game winner the other night, Lowry has a career playoff shooting percentage of just .381% which is well below his season averages. The Bucks were 7-3 ATS this season when tabbed a favorite of -2.5-points or less and we feel they take care of business at home in Game #3. 

We are going to play UNDER in the Portland Trailblazers @ Golden State Warriors game #2, Weds 10:30PM ET - Public money has been steadily coming in on the OVER tonight, yet the line has dropped from 221 to 220. The opening game of this series ended with 230 total points but there were some abnormal circumstances that we don't expect to repeat tonight. The Blazers starting backcourt of CJ McCollum and Damian Lillard went off in Game 1 as they combined for 75 of the 109 points the Blazers scored. Those two players were 28 of 54 from the field and 7 of 15 from beyond the arc. It's unlikely those two great players can duplicate a performance like that again tonight. The rest of the Blazers shot just 30% on the night. Meanwhile the Warriors shot 53% from the field and Kevin Durant contributed 32 points on 12 of 20 shooting. Durant is questionable tonight  and even if he does play he won't be 100% and won't put up those numbers again. Let's not forget the Warriors have the 2nd best overall defensive efficiency rating in the NBA overall, #1 when playing at home. Portland hasn't been great defensively all season long but they were better down the stretch of the regular season by holding five straight opponents to 106 points or less. All the indicators tell us the UNDER is the way to go here. 

We are playing OVER 194 in the Milwaukee Bucks @ Toronto Raptors game Tuesday. The line on this game has been over-adjusted by the Oddsmakers as its 4 full points less than Game 1. Granted, these two teams combined for just 180 total points in the opener but the Raptors couldn't make a shot in the second half and only scored 13-points in the 4th quarter. For the game the Raptors shot just 36%, going 27 of 75 from the field. That's an abnormally low number as Toronto shot 46.3% on the season which was 11th best in the NBA. Not to mention their 75 field goal attempts were 9 less than their season average of 84.3 on the year. If Toronto has an average night shooting and an average number of field goal attempts, the opener goes way over this number. The Bucks had a decent shooting night as they hit 44.7% from the field but that is still below their season average of 47.4% which was 4th best in the NBA. On the road this season the Bucks average 204 total points per game while the Raptors averaged 213 at home. Do you know how many times the Raptors and their opponent have totaled less than 200 points in Toronto this year? Just 9 times out of 42 games! This is the 6th meeting of the season between these two teams and 4 of the six had totals set by the oddsmakers of 203 or more. Value says bet OVER! 

ASA PLAY ON: Over 208 Indiana Pacers @ Cleveland Cavaliers, 7PM ET - All we need is an average game for this bet to win and we feel we get that tonight. What we mean by average is this. The league average for points scored in an NBA game is 211PPG this year and based on what these two teams did this year we are predicting 213 total points. Both clubs are right around league average when it comes to pace or possessions per game. Both Indiana and Cleveland are above average in terms of offensive efficiency ratings with the Cavs having the 3rd highest points per possession in the NBA at 1.137PPP. Both teams are also below average in defensive efficiency. In the opener these two combined for 217 total points and that was with the Cavs missing 13 free throws and Kyrie Irving going just 1 for 9 from beyond the arc. In the last four meetings between these two teams they've combined for 249, 217, 265 (OT) and 217. Both teams have some significant over trends right now and we'll predict another over tonight. 

ASA PLAY ON: @TORONTO RAPTORS (-7) over Milwaukee Bucks, 5:30PM ET - We are playing on the Toronto Raptors at home minus the points (-7) over the visiting Milwaukee Bucks. The Raptors are 60-22 SU at home last 2 seasons with an average point differential of 7.1PPG which is the 5th best differential in the entire NBA the past two years. They have a veteran team that is healthy right now and know what it takes to win in the playoffs. We feel the Lowry injury was a blessing for the Raptors how had the opportunity to develop some other players and build chemistry. As far as the season series is concerned, the Raptors won 3 of 4 meetings with Bucks this year and both home games were blowouts by 16 and 22 points. The young Bucks have a bright future and may win a few games in this series, just not the opener on the road. On the year the Bucks had a negative road differential of -2.9PPG which is exactly league average. Milwaukee was out-shot and out-rebounded in both games in Toronto and lost by a combined 38 total points AND that was with starter Jabari Parker in the lineup who scored 48 points in those 2 contests.  Raps 5-1 ATS last six meetings and chalk has covered 21 of the last 29 between these two teams.  Any way we slice it comes up Toronto in Game 1.

ASA play on: Dallas Mavericks (-2) over Denver Nuggets, 8:35PM ET - The Denver Nuggets were eliminated from the playoffs in heart-breaking fashion the other night at home when Russell Westbrook hit a 26-foot jumper at the buzzer to beat Denver. It's only human nature to let down here after that emotional beat. With literally nothing to play for we don't expect a focused Nuggets team to put up much of a fight here. Dallas on the other hand is coming off a blowout loss and will be playing their final home game of the season and will want to reward their loyal followers with a good showing. Sure, the Mavs are just 1-4 SU their last five home games but take a look at who they played: Spurs, Thunder, Raptors, Clippers and Warriors. Those are five of the best teams in the NBA (excluding OKC who is good but not great). The Nuggets were recently a 2-point home favorite over the Mavs which means this line should be much higher than it currently is. The Mavs as a low chalk have been great this year with a 7-1 ATS mark when laying 3.5 or less points. Nuggets have not covered a game in Dallas in 5 straight tries! Given the circumstances this sets up to be an EASY win for Dallas!

Today we play OVER 227.5 in the Oklahoma City Thunder @ Phoenix Suns game, 10PM ET. The Thunder are essentially locked into the 6th seed in the West so this game really isn't about playoff positioning. But it is about Russell Westbrook setting the all time record for the most triple-doubles in a season so expect a focused Thunders team tonight. OKC could play a better opponent than tonight's as the Suns are young, fun and want to run-n-gun! Westbrook is averaging 41.7 points, 13.7 rebounds and 13.7 assists against the Suns this season and had a pair of games with 51 and 48 points! He also needs just 6 assists tonight to ensure averaging double digits assists this year and who better to play than the Suns who he has a career best 22 assist game against. Phoenix waved the white flag a week ago and are sitting veteran players to see how the younger pieces fit. Defensively for the Sun's it's been a disaster as they've allowed 120+ in four straight and 112 or more in 9 of their last ten games. Phoenix has the 3rd worst defensive efficiency rating in the NBA on the year and are also the 2nd fastest paced team which helps our wager tonight. Just over a month ago these same two teams met and combined for 229 total points and that was with the Thunder shooting just 42.5% as a team against a Suns D that allows over 47% on their home court. OKC has played in a few lower scoring games of late but tonight they'll gladly play the Suns style and it will lead to 230+ points. 

ASA play on: OVER 202.5 Dallas Mavericks @ LA Clippers, 10:35PM ET - Based on the full season statistics our math model projects 207 total points in this game but when we dissect those numbers, we see a current trend toward an even higher scoring game. On the season the Mavs average 92.1 possessions per game which is what they've averaged their last five games. But their offensive efficiency numbers are better and their defensive efficiency numbers are worse. Dallas is coming off a game last night and when playing without rest the Mavs have averaged 205PPG on the season. The Clippers are about league average in pace of play and offensive efficiency ratings but below average in defensive efficiency. Don't forget the average total points scored in an NBA game this year is 211 so today's total on this game is set a full 8-points less than average. The Clippers have had 3 full days rest leading up to tonight and in the previous 4 games in this scheduling situation those games have averaged 234 total points. 

ASA play on: Utah Jazz (-6) over Portland Trailblazers, 10:35PM ET - This is clearly a big game for both teams as the Jazz are fighting for the 4th spot in the West and a first round home series versus the Clippers. Portland on the other hand is fighting for the 8th and final spot in the West. At first glance this looks like a tough call but really it's not. We consider the Jazz one of the 8 best teams in the league and this is a great spot to play on them considering they are off a loss in San Antonio their last game out. Utah is 5-1 SU their last six when playing at home off a loss and all five of those victories came by 6 or more points. The Jazz are 26-12 SU at home this season with the 7th best home differential in the NBA of +6PPG. Portland is 16-24 SU on the road this season with a negative differential of -3.8PPG. They have been good when playing without rest this year, but a key injury to starting center Jusuf Nurkic, has really hurt their depth and front court presence. Last night in Minny, Karl-Anthony Towns dominated the Blazers bigs with a 34-point, 12 rebound night. Jazz center Rudy Gobert could put up similar numbers tonight. The home team has been the bet in this series as they hold a 5-0 ATS record and four of the five wins by the home team have been blowouts. Play on the Jazz!

ASA play on: Toronto Raptors (-5.5) over Indiana Pacers. There really isn't a reason to expect the Pacers to suddenly turn around their road fortunes tonight in Toronto against a Raptors team that is really good on their home floor. Toronto is 25-13 SU on their home court this year with the 6th best average point differential in the NBA of +7.7PPG. By comparison, Indiana is just 11-26 SU away this season with a negative differential of minus -6.5PPG which is 8th worst in the league. The Pacers have lost 6 straight road games by an average of 13PPG, so as I said before, why would they do a 180 tonight and play well away from home? Both teams have plenty to play for as the Raptors are looking to move up in the East, while the Pacers are trying to hold on to a playoff spot. We do like the fact the Raptors are off a home loss here as they have covered 5 of their last six off a loss anyplace.  They have back to back home losses just once this season and that came to a San Antonio Spurs team that is one of the best teams in the league. Toronto recently beat the Pacers 116-91 and dominated the boards 51-33. Expect much of the same tonight.

UNDER 199 in the New Orleans at Utah Jazz game tonight, 10:30PM ET. There are several questionable players in the rotations for both teams but either way we expect a lower scoring game tonight. These same two teams recently met on this court (3/6) and produced just 171 total points. The Vegas number on that game was 197. Looking at the Pelicans most recent games they've played against some of the leagues faster paced teams which has led to some higher scoring games, hence a higher line on this game. But when they've played similar teams to the Jazz like Memphis and Toronto they've scored just 177 and 181 total points. Utah is the slowest paced team in the NBA at just 91.6  possessions per game and they have the 3rd best defensive efficiency rating allowing just 1.051 points per possession. New Orleans typically plays faster but they also have the 5th best DEFF rating allowing just 1.064PPP. We doubt New Orleans wants to get into an up-and-down game tonight after a game last night in Denver  which will clearly help out cause here. We bet UNDER the total!

ASA PLAY OVER 194 in the Toronto Raptors @ Dallas Mavericks game, 8:35PM ET. Our analytics or math model has put us on this total that has clearly been set to low by the oddsmakers. Our computers tell us the total points scored in this game should be 203 which is drastically different that the set number. Let's not forget the league average for points scored in an NBA game is 211. Both of these team are near the league average in pace of play so we know we'll get the tempo we need for points. They are slightly better than average in terms of defensive efficiency ratings and Toronto is far better in offensive efficiency than the Mavs. But again, we're talking averages here and what the projected total points that will be scored based on math. Part of the reason this number is so low is the fact these two teams recently playing in Toronto and that game ended with just 178 total points but the Mavs, who average 98PPG on the season, managed just 78. That won't happen at home today where they average 100.5PPG on the season. The value wager on this game is OVER the total!

ASA 3* PLAY UNDER 221 Brooklyn Nets @ Washington Wizards, 7PM ET.  We successfully played under in the Nets game last night and our  math model has put us on this under tonight. Quickly, comparing last night's Nets game with tonight's opponent, we see that Washington plays slower than Phoenix (Nets played last night) and are better defensively.  But yet the line on tonight's game is nearly the same. These same two teams just met in mid-February and combined for 224 in overtime. At the end of regulation the Nets and Wizards had combined for just 200 points in that game. As we mentioned last night, the Nets are playing much slower of late and it's led to 3 unders in their last four games. Last night they did put up 126 points but that was against a Suns team that is horrible defensively and they are a team that has quit on the season. Washington has a huge game on deck against the Cavs and play a tough stretch of games coming up so the last thing they'll want to do tonight is run-n-gun. When playing in Washington the Wizards, combined with their opponent, have topped 224 total points just two times in their last 13. Brooklyn games average 224PPG on the road this year, Washington home games average 215. Do the math! Both teams scoring and points allowed are trending down right now and we bet UNDER here!

The value NBA Total bet tonight is UNDER in the Phoenix Suns @ Brooklyn Nets game. Our math model projects 218 total points in this game. The oddsmakers opened a number of 219.5 which has gone up dramatically to the current total. Obviously, there is tremendous value with the UNDER here. Phoenix is one of the highest scoring teams in the NBA at 107.1PPG but in their last five games they are averaging just 99.4PPG which is the 6th lowest average in the NBA. While their offensive numbers have been on a slide down hill, their defensive statistics have improved. On the season the Suns allow 1.116 points per possession (5th worst) but in their last five games they are giving up an average of 1.068PPP which is 12th best in the league. Phoenix has scored 103 or less points in 6 straight games. The Nets have had a few slower paced games and it looks like the wear and tear of the season is catching up with them, much like the Suns. The Nets are the fastest paced team in the league on the year with 101.1 possessions per game but in their last five games that average has dipped to 97 possessions which is 18th slowest. On the year the Nets have one of the three worst offenses in terms of offensive efficiency ratings and they've averaged just 99PPG their last three games. When the Suns have played on the road this season those games have averaged 219PPG while the Nets home games have averaged 215PPG. This is an easy call with the UNDER!