Sports Picks & Predictions

ASA top play on 10* OVER 231.5 Sacramento Kings at LA Lakers, 10:40 PM ET - No LeBron tonight, no problem concerning this Over-Under. Let’s face it, LeBron tends to slow the offense at times as he’s very deliberate when he has the ball in his hands on the offensive end of the court. With him out of the lineup that means more time for Westbrook who pushes the tempo every chance he gets. The Lakers are currently the 3rd fastest paced team in the league at 102.3 possessions per game. Sacramento is 13th in pace at 100.3 possessions per game. The Kings have solid offensive numbers as they rank 10th in offensive efficiency, 9th in scoring at 115.9PPG and are the 7th best shooting team in the NBA. They should improve on their scoring numbers against a Lakers defense that is not good this season ranking 19th in defensive efficiency and 24th in PPG given up at 116.1. Granted, the Lakers offense has not been good either this season, but they have a great opportunity to ‘get right’ tonight against a Kings D that is 25th in PPG allowed (117.1), 29th in both overall FG% and 3PT% defense and 25th in DEFF. In the two most recent meetings between these two teams they produced 241 and 236 total points. Bet OVER!

ASA top play 10* on #547/548 UNDER 223 Phoenix Suns at Minnesota Timberwolves, 8:10 PM ET - In the first week of the NBA season, scoring was up with games averaging 228 total points per game. That has trended back to the norm with games averaging 224.8-total points per game currently. In other words, this game has to be slightly lower scoring than an average game, which is what our model is predicting. Let’s start with the fact these two teams are a combined 6-15 to the Under this season. The addition of Rudy Gobert to the Wolves lineup is taking time for the team to adjust to. Last year the Wolves were the highest scoring team in the league at 115.4PPG but this year they are down to 113.7PPG which ranks 12th. Those numbers should be considerably higher given the fact that the Wolves have played the Spurs three times who are last in the league in points allowed per game at 120.6. They’ve also faced the Rockets and Knicks who are bottom 10 in PPG given up. Now they face a Suns team that is 2nd in points allowed per game at 103.5PPG, and rank 3rd in defensive efficiency. Another key factor is pace. Minnesota has faced several fast tempo teams this season, but the Suns are the 3rd slowest in pace of play at 95.7 possessions per game. The presence of Gobert (multiple defensive player of the year awards) has made the T-Wolves better defensively. Minnesota is 9th in defensive efficiency ratings at 1.105-points per possession allowed. Phoenix was 5th overall in scoring a year ago at 113.8PPG but are currently 15th at 112.4PPG. This game is shaping up to be very similar to the Bucks/Wolves game the other night which finished with 217 total points. Bet UNDER!

ASA top play 10* on #544 Atlanta Hawks -2.5 vs. Utah Jazz, 7:40 PM ET - The Hawks have strung together three quality wins over the Knicks, Pelicans and most recently the Bucks. The win over Milwaukee was significant considering Trae Young did not play. He is expected to be in the lineup tonight versus the Jazz. Atlanta is 4-1 SU at home this season with a +5PPG differential. The Hawks were 27-11 SU a year ago at home with the exact same +/- of +5PPG. As a home favorite the Hawks are 22-17 ATS their last 39 and they win those games by an average of +6.1PPG. Utah has certainly been one of the biggest surprises early on as nobody predicted them to be 9-3 SU at this point after trading away Mitchell and Gobert. The Jazz are 4-3 SU on the road but only one of those four road wins came against a team with a winning record (6-5 Clippers). Utah isn’t great as a road dog with a 7-7-1 ATS record dating back to the start of last season with a negative differential of minus -6.9PPG. Lastly, we like to fade a team like the Jazz off a HUGE 139-point offensive showing and win over a hated rival like the Lakers. These two teams are very similar in terms of offensive and defensive efficiency numbers but the situation and setting favors the Hawks.

#506 ASA top play on 10* Detroit Pistons +2 vs. Oklahoma City Thunder, 7:40 PM ET - The Pistons are 2-8 SU on the season and off to a disappointing start with their young roster. OKC on the other hand is 4-5 SU and playing above expectations. In this scenario though we have to back the home underdog with Detroit. The Pistons are coming off a horrible home loss to the Cavs on Friday night after winning their previous home game over the Warriors by 14. Sandwiched between those two home games were a pair of losses in Milwaukee. OKC is also off a pair of losses after winning 4 straight. The Thunder are 1-3 SU on the road this season and if we look at a larger sample size, we find they were 12-29 SU away from home last year. In those road contests in 202122 they had a net differential of minus -9.8PPG which was one of the worst average W/L margins in the NBA. This is more of a play against the Thunder who find themselves in an unfamiliar role as a road favorite which has happened once since 2020. The Pistons have a solid cover rate as a home dog at 57.9% since the start of last season.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UNDER 220 Cleveland Cavaliers @ Detroit Pistons, 7:10 PM ET - We have a great comparative opponent analysis here as the Pistons just faced the Bucks in two games who are very similar to the Cavs in terms of pace, offensive and defensive efficiency. In those two games the Bucks/Pistons totaled 207 and 218 total points. Cleveland has the 2nd best DEFF rating in the league allowing just 1.055-poins per possession and are the 3rd slowest paced team in the NBA. The Pistons are 10th in pace, but have the 4th worst offensive efficiency numbers in the league. Cleveland is the ‘alpha’ team here and they’ll dictate tempo and keep this game from being high scoring. It looks like the Cavs may rest Donovan Mitchell here and his 31PPG will be missed. Last season, in the four meetings between these two teams they totaled 222 or less in all four. The bet here is UNDER.

ASA top play on 10* Oklahoma City Thunder +6.5 vs. Denver Nuggets, 8:10 PM ET - The value in the number has us on OKC tonight. These two teams met on Oct 22nd in Denver and the Nuggets were favored by 9-points and won by 5. That means they should be a 1-2-point favorite on the road in this matchup. On the season the Thunder have a net differential of +2PPG, while the Nuggets are negative at -2.9PPG. Denver is 1-3 SU on the road this season with the 3rd worst average MOV of -13PPG. The Nuggets have the worst defensive efficiency rating when away this season. OKC is 3-1 SU at home on the season with an average MOV of +5PPG. The Thunder have won four straight games with a pair of solid wins over the Clippers and a big road win in Dallas. In the first meeting this season the Nuggets shot 53% from Deep which is well above their season of 39.4%. We don’t expect a repeat performance for them on the road, plus the Thunder rank 5th in 3-point percentage defense. The Thunder have a budding Star in Shai Gilgeous Alexander who is putting up insane numbers to start the season. Grab the home dog in this one.

ASA top play on 10* Charlotte Hornets +5.5 at Chicago Bulls, 7:40 PM ET - Scheduling plays an important part of the equation tonight as the Hornets are rested while Chicago is off a game in Brooklyn last night. Another key factor is the results of both teams previous games. The Hornets are off an embarrassing home loss to the Kings, Chicago is off an upset win over the Nets. Chicago is 0-2 SU/ATS this season when playing the second night of a B2B and have been lost by 5 and 32-points. Dating back to the start of last season, the Bulls are 8-10-1 ATS with a negative differential of minus -3.8PPG. When playing with rest advantage the Hornets are 12-9-1 ATS dating back to the start of last season. Charlotte is 26-19 ATS their last 45 road games with an average margin of victory of minus -0.7PPG which gets us an easy cover here. One key aspect of this game that clearly favors the Hornets is their 7th best 3-point percentage shooting against a Bulls defense that ranks 29th in defending the 3-point line. Chicago’s starter saw extended minutes last night so fatigue becomes a factor late and the Hornets get a solid cover.

ASA top play on 10* Miami Heat Even vs. Golden State Warriors, 7:40 PM ET - We get two elite teams in this showdown with both coming off 2 straight losses making this game a higher priority. Last Thursday these same two teams met in Golden State with the Warriors coming out on top 123-110 as a minus -5.5-point favorite. That natural swing in the line should have the Heat favored by -2.5-points here so let’s grab the value with Miami. The Heat were 36-15 SU in the regular season at home last year with a +/- of +5.8PPG. Golden State is 41-50 SU since 2020 on the road with a negative differential of minus -1.7PPG. The Warriors live and die by the 3-pointer and the Heat historically under coach Spoelstra defend the arc as well as anyone. This season they are 26th in the league in 3-point percentage D but they’ve been top 11 the past three years, 2nd a year ago. The Warriors defense is 30th in the NBA in points allowed this season and 23rd in defensive efficiency. Miami has covered 5 of the last seven at home versus the Warriors. Bet the home team!

ASA top play on 10* Atlanta Hawks +3.5 @ Toronto Raptors, 7:40 PM ET - The one negative to this wager is the fact the Raptors are off a home loss which we don’t like but the value in the number clearly favors the Hawks. Atlanta is also off a loss in Milwaukee by 8-points 115-123. The Hawks were getting +5.5-points in that game against the 5-0 Bucks who have an average margin of victory of +10.4PPG. Now they are catching +4 at Toronto? Another comparison is the Raptors were just-3.5 at home against the 76ers who were playing without Embiid. Both teams have solid spread results when coming off a loss so that’s a wash. Were the Hawks have a big advantage is offensively as they average 1.164-points per possession (8th) compared to the Raptors 1.104PPP which is 24th in the league. Defensively these two teams are relatively even with both giving up around the league average in terms of points per possession. The Hawks have one of the best scoring point guards in the league in Trae Young who could be in line for a big game seeing the Raps just gave up 44-points to the Sixers Maxey.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 228.5 Chicago Bulls at San Antonio Spurs, 8:40 PM ET - Tempo or pace plays an important component of this wager as we have one fast paced team in the Spurs (102.7 possessions per game) and the Bulls who are slightly faster than league average at 100. San Antonio is the 4th fastest team in the NBA, Chicago is 14th. But the Bulls pace numbers are a little misleading as four of the five teams they’ve faced are some of the slowest paced teams in the NBA. The one game they faced a fast-paced team like the Spurs they finished with 233 points against Indiana and that Total was set at 234.5. In that comparison, the Spurs are just as fast as Indiana, way better offensively with the 9th most efficient offense and nearly identical defensively. San Antonio has struggled defensively allowing 121.6PPG but are also scoring 118PPG. The strength and weaknesses of both teams will exploit each other here. Both teams shoot the 3-ball well with the Spurs hitting 38.6% from deep which is 8th in the NBA. The Bulls hit 37.1% from beyond the arc which is good for 13th in the league. Neither team defends the deep ball well either with the Spurs ranking 25th in 3PT% “D” and the Bulls ranking 29th. Both teams have similar makeups to last years rosters and in the two meetings a season ago they put up 229 and 253 total points. Easy Over!

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 228.5 Dallas Mavericks @ Brooklyn Nets, 7:40 PM ET - Brooklyn is coming off an embarrassing loss in Milwaukee last night and we should see a much better effort at home against the Mavs. The Nets/Bucks had a Total set of 228.5 last night and managed just 209 combined points. This number of 228.5 is the highest number set on a Mavs game this year by 9-full points. Pace will play an important role in this outcome as we have the 3rd slowest paced team in the Mavs and 15th in Brooklyn. When it comes to offensive efficiency the Nets are 12th in the league at 1.115-points per possession, the Mavericks are 1st at 1.231PPP which is not sustainable. In comparison, last season Dallas had an OEFF of 1.129PPP which was around league average. Last season in the two regular season meetings these two combined for 224 and 201 total points. Both teams have shot well above expectations early on but that should trend down as the weeks go on. Our projections have this game in the low 220’s. Bet UNDER.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 233.5 San Antonio Spurs @ Minnesota Timberwolves, 8 PM ET - This is a home-home series as these same two teams just met on Oct 24th in Minnesota. That game finished with 221 points and had a posted Total of 235. That game could have easily gone over the number but each team had an abnormal quarter. After putting up a combined 124-points in the first half it looked like a sure Over bet winner. Then the Wolves managed just 14-points in the 3rd quarter while the Spurs put up 12-points in the 4th. We should see another high scoring affair here with two teams that like to play fast. The Spurs are 4th in pace of play, the T-Wolves are 5th so we know there will be plenty of possession for a high scoring game. Minnesota is 13th in defensive efficiency, the Spurs are 21st so neither are exceptional on that end of the floor. San Antonio is scoring 117PPG, Minnesota is putting up 115.8PPG. Last season when these two teams met they put huge totals in 2 of the four games with 288 and 248-points. The oddsmakers lowered this Total by a few points so let’s grab the value and bet OVER.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 226 Golden State Warriors @ Phoenix Suns, 10 PM ET - Money and tickets have driven his number up throughout the betting markets which gives us some added value on the Under. The Warriors have scored 123 and 130 in their last two games but those results came against Sacramento and Denver which rank 22nd and 29th in defensive efficiency. Tonight, they face a Phoenix team that allows just 1.053-points per possession which is 5th in the NBA. That’s not a shock either as the Suns were 3rd last season in DEFF. Golden State cannot maintain the pace of play they are currently playing at of 109.6 possessions per game. A great comparison is what they averaged last season of 98.3 possessions per game. Phoenix will want to slow this home game down as they are the 4th slowest paced team in the league at this point of the season. In fact, Phoenix just played a similar team to the Warriors in terms of scoring when they went to Portland who is averaging 117.3PPG and held them to 102-points in regulation. In the four meetings last season these two teams combined for 200, 214, 223 and 210 total points. That trend continues here…BET UNDER!

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia 76ers -3.5 vs Milwaukee Bucks, Thursday, 7:30 PM ET - This is a really good spot to back the 76ers who have a game under their belt against the Bucks playing their first game which is also on the road. Not too mention, the Sixers are off a loss to the Celtics in their season opener on Tuesday night. Philly has been solid off a loss with a 33-28-2 ATS record dating back to the start of 2020 and they’ve won those games by an average of +4PPG. Philly has the 4th best average Margin of Victory at home since 2020 at +6PPG. The Bucks may struggle out of the gate this season with All-Star Khris Middleton sidelined for 4-6 weeks and now Pat Connaughton out for this game. You may be surprised to know the Bucks were not a good road underdog last season with a 6-11 ATS record and a negative differential of minus -9PPG. The road team won all three meetings a year ago but that changes tonight. Lay the short number with Philly.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 215. Cleveland Cavaliers at Toronto Raptors, 7:40 PM ET - The Raptors has essentially their roster intact from a year ago but the Cavs made the biggest offseason splash in the league with a trade for Donovan Mitchell (Jazz). Cleveland will take some time to adjust with Mitchell on the floor with Darius Garland so expect some lower scoring early on. These two teams were two of the best on the defensive end of the court and that’s not going to change this season. The Raptors were 10th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.106-points per possession. The Cavs were 7th at 1.097PPP. Both teams played extremely slow with the Cavs being the 26th slowest paced team in the league, while the Raptors were 27th. Neither team was great offensively with the Raptors ranking 15th in offensive efficiency, the Cavaliers were 20th at 1.119PPP. Under is the play here.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 216.5 Philadelphia 76ers @ Boston Celtics, 7:30 PM ET - The Under is the play here between a pair of Eastern Conference teams that don’t like each other. Last season in four regular season meetings these two combined for 222, 210, 211 and 175-total points. The highest scoring game came in mid-February when the Celtics scored a ridiculous 135-points. The O/U’s on all four games were set lower than this number. The Celts were 24th in pace of play last season, the 76ers were 25th. Boston was the 2nd best defensive efficiency team, the Sixers were 12th. In the last six meetings between these two teams in Boston the Under is 5-1. We expect the offenses for both teams to struggle in the opener and predict a low scoring game. Bet UNDER!

ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -3.5 over Golden State Warriors, Game 6 @ 9 PM ET - It obviously didn’t work in Game 5 but we will stick with our system of betting on great teams off a loss and Boston fits that category as they are now 12-2 SU/ATS their last fourteen off a loss and a near perfect 7-1 SU/ATS in the postseason. Six of their last twelve wins in that situation have come by 20+ points. Boston was 28-13 SU at home during the regular season with the 5th best average point differential of +7PPG. We don’t feel the Celtics will succumb to the pressures of this situation as they have too many good players that can step up in any given situation. The Warriors are 4-5 SU on the road in the playoffs and they weren’t a great road team in the regular season with a 22-19 SU record and a +/- of 1.2PPG. Granted, Steph Curry is not going to miss every 3-pointer he takes in this game as he did in the last, but the Celtics defense will again provide a stiff challenge and make every point tough to come by. This is going to be a 7-game series and we like the Celtics to get a double-digit win in this one.

ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics +4 over Golden State Warriors, 9 PM ET - Steph Curry is great! He literally carried the Warriors to a win in Game 4 with 43 points on 14 of 26 shooting overall and 7 of 14 from Deep. Those types of numbers are tough to duplicate no matter how good you are, and we just don’t see his supporting cast stepping up enough in this one to get a cover. The amazing stat of this series is this, despite every game being decided by 9 or more points, the total points scored by both teams is 422 to 421. This game is going to be tight to the end as both know the winner of this game is more than likely going to win the series. We must stick with our system of betting on great teams off a loss and Boston fits that category as they are 12-1 SU/ATS their last thirteen off a loss and a perfect 7-0 SU/ATS in the postseason. Six of their last twelve wins in that situation have come by 20+ points. Now this doesn’t mean we are backing Boston to win here, but it’s a clear indicator of just how good they are off a loss. The Celtics are 16-3-1 ATS their last twenty on the road and they owned the best average point differential in the NBA during the regular season at +7.6PPG. I know some guys will be on the Moneyline here with Boston and I don’t disagree with the assessment but I can’t ignore the points as Golden State may win but it’s going to be close.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 213.5 Golden State Warriors @ Boston Celtics, Game 4 9 PM ET - Two of the three meetings have finished with more than tonight’s Total posted by Vegas and we like that trend to continue in Game 4. More money and tickets are coming in on the Under here, yet the line has trickled up which tells us to follow the move. In Game 3 the pace of play and shooting had the game on pace for a Total near 230 at the end of the 3rd quarter but then the Warriors couldn’t make a shot in the 4th. Golden State scored just 11-points in the final quarter on 5 of 15 shooting including 1-8 performance from the 3-point line. Golden State shot 46% overall and 38% from beyond the arc. Klay Thompson finally found his stroke scoring 25-points. Boston had 3 players score 20+ and haven’t had problems hunting shots against the Warriors in two of the three games where they shot 51% in Game 1 and 48% in Game 3. The Celtics averaged 110PPG at home this season and held the 12th best offensive efficiency rating at home. The Warriors have been the 3rd best offensive efficiency numbers in the playoffs at 1.160-points per possession. Our model is projecting 221 total points in this game. Bet OVER.

ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -3.5 over Golden State Warriors, Game 3 Wednesday 8 PM ET - If you spend any amount of time watching the “talking heads” on ESPN, TNT or the rest of the hype media, we recommend you don’t. I love how those guys, who aren’t held accountable when they lose, just spew predictions without consequences. Where I’m going is this, after a dominating Game 1 Boston win the so-called experts were saying the series was over, the Celtics were the much better team and going to win the series etc…Then Golden State crushes the C’s in Game 2 and they all flip-flop to the Warriors and are now predicting them to win again in Game 3. How about nobody over-reacts and looks at this objectively. We like Boston to bounce back after that humiliating loss and get a resounding win at home in Game 3. The Celts were 28-13 SU at home in the regular season with the 5th best average of Margin of Victory at +7PPG. Granted the Celtics are 5-4 SU in the postseason at home but overall they are 4-0 SU/ATS when coming off a loss with an average +/- of +16.25PPG. On the year, the C’s are 26-12 SU off a loss, 12-5 SU at home off a loss, 10-7 ATS. Golden State has already lost 4 road games in the playoffs and were an unimpressive 22-19 SU away from home during the regular season with a +/- of +1.2PPG. We also like the fact Scott Foster will be officiating this game which means Draymond Green will be on a shorter leash than normal. Boston will have great energy at home tonight and win big.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 215.5 Boston Celtics @ Golden State Warriors Game 2 Sunday 8 PM ET - We are betting Under in Game 2. The Celtics made 13.3 3-pointers per game during the regular season and then exploded for 21 in Game 1. Overall, the Celtics shot 51% for the game and scored 40 points in the 4th quarter alone. We expect a regression in Game 2 and a trend back to the norm. Boston was 15th in the league in team field goal percentage at 46.6% and 14th in 3PT% ranking 14th. We certainly don’t see them shooting as well in Game 2 considering the Warriors were 2nd in team FG% defense at 43.8% and 3rd in 3PT% at 33.9%. Golden State was 39 of 88 from the field overall (44%) and 19 of 45 from Deep or 42%. Boston is going to make some defensive adjustments and do a better job of defending Curry who started red-hot in Game 1 before coach Kerr sat him for an extended amount of time in the 2nd quarter to cool him off. Let’s not forget, the Celtics allow the least number of points in the league, have the best field goal percentage defense and rank 1st defending the 3-point line. These two teams ranked 1st and 2nd in defensive efficiency allowing 1.070-points per possession. This game is going to be a dog fight and we expect both teams to ratchet up their defensive intensity. Bet Under.

ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors -3.5 vs. Boston Celtics, 9 PM ET - The best part about this series is the fact that we have the two best teams vying for the Championship and it should be a fantastic series. These were the two best defensive teams in the league during the regular season allowing just 1.070-points per possession. Boston was the better offensive team during the regular season, but the Warriors have flipped the switch in the postseason and have averaged 1.171-points per possession. The Celtics have a pair of quality series wins over the Bucks and Heat, but Milwaukee was without Khris Middleton and the Heat played games without Butler, Herro and Lowry. The Celtics defense contributed to some of the Heat’s 3-point shooting struggles, but a bigger part of the equation was just poor shooting by Miami. Now the Celtics face a Warriors team that is dialed in from beyond the Arc. Golden State just faced the 4th best 3-point percentage defense in the NBA of the Mavericks and they torched them from Deep by hitting 59 of 143 or 41%. Golden State is 40-10 SU at home this season with the best average Margin of Victory at +10.4PPG. Boston was good on the road this season at 30-20 SU but the young Celtics are faced with their biggest challenge ever in this pressure packed environment. Golden State is 9-0 SU at home in the playoffs and they’ve won those games by an average of +15PPG. This is going to be a great series but we have to side with the veteran home team in the opener.

ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -2.5 over Miami Heat, Game 7 Sunday 8:30 PM ET - If you’ve spent any time watching the NBA playoffs you better know the Celtics are the better team and capable of winning the title this season. Yes, Miami has the best player with Jimmy Butler but he doesn’t have enough supporting talent around him right now. Jimmy hasn’t shown up in a few games so I don’t trust him here when he’s less than 100% on a bum knee. Boston has the better roster and have multiple players capable of taking over the game themselves in Tatum, Brown, Smart and Horford. Home court doesn’t mean much here considering the road team has won 4 games already in this series and it’s clear the oddsmakers agree with the road team favored. In fact, Boston is 20-4 SU this season when favored on the road and they’ve won those games by an average of +14.5PPG. I like Boston off a loss. The Celtics are 25-11, 23-13 ATS this season overall when coming off a loss. They are 10-1 SU/ATS their last eleven off a loss including a 5-0 record in the playoffs. Without Butler’s 40+ points in Game 6 the Heat are blown out. Lowry has struggled with his shooting until the last game and we don’t expect a repeat performance in this pressure situation. Prior to the Playoffs we liked Boston to get to the Finals and we’ll stick with that prediction and like them to get a win here.

ASA top play on 10* Over 201.5 Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat, 8:30 PM ET - VALUE! The two other games played in Boston in this series had Over/Under numbers of 208 and 206 so you can see the value we are getting here. Three of the five games have finished with more than this total and overall the games have averaged 212.5PPG. The two games that didn’t go Over the number were Games 4 &5 which both featured horrendous shooting nights at 33% & 32% by Miami, which are both well below their season average of 46.7% (13th). The Heat are the #1 or best 3-point shooting team in the NBA this season, yet are coming off a game in which they made just 7 of 45 3-point attempts or 16%. That clearly is an aberration and can’t continue. Boston has many offensive weapons on offense with Tatum, Brown, Horford and Smart if he plays. The Celtics shot just 40% in Game 4 at home but bounced back with a 46% night in Game 5 in Miami. We like that trend to continue here at home in this elimination game. The field goal attempts have been high enough to produce higher scores with 165 in Game 5 and 168, 162, 170 and 169 in the previous games of this series. Boston’s home games have averaged 213PPG this season, Miami’s road contests have averaged 213.1PPG. Grab the value and bet OVER!

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 215.5 Dallas Mavericks @ Golden State Warriors, 9 PM ET - This is another closeout game for the Warriors who lead this series 3-1 and are at home with one of the best defenses in the NBA. This series has been a classic Zig-Zag when it comes to the Over-Under with Game 1 staying Under, 2 going Over etc…Dallas has been a poor shooting team all season long ranking 18th in overall team FG% at 46.1% and 19th in 3-point% at 35%. They had shot poorly in this series until Game 4 at home in Dallas when they hit 50% from the field and 47% from Deep. We don’t expect that to happen again against this Warriors defense that 3rd in points allowed per game, 2nd in defensive field goal percentage allowed and 34rd in 3PT% defense. The Mavericks have been a great defensive team all season too ranking 6th in defensive efficiency allowing just 1.094PPP and giving up just 104.7PPG. Dallas also holds the 4th ranked 3PT% defense in the league allowing 34%. The Mavs made some offensive adjustments in Game 3 which improved their offense against the Warriors zone defense, so now expect Golden State to make another adjustment to counter the Mavs. This one stays Under!

ASA top play on 10* Over 203.5 Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat, 8:30 PM ET - Three of the four games have finished with more than this total and overall the games have averaged 212.5PPG. The only game that didn’t go Over the number was Game 4 in Boston when the Heat had a horrendous shooting night at 33% which is well below their season average of 46.7% (13th). With Miami coming back home tonight we expect a much better shooting performance. Boston has many offensive weapons on offense with Tatum, Brown, Horford and Smart if he plays. The Celtics put up 102 points in the most recent game but they basically coasted in the second half, scoring 45-points after putting up 57 in the first half. The field goal attempts have been high enough to produce higher scores with 168 in Game 4, 162, 170 and 169. Based on those FGA’s, shooting percentages this game should result with a minimum of 214 total points. The Heat home playoff games have averaged 213.25 total points. Bet Over

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 215.5 Golden State Warriors @ Dallas Mavericks, Tuesday Game 4 - The Mavs are facing elimination in large part because of poor offensive execution and bad shooting. For all his greatness, Luka is a ball-stopper on offense and there is very little movement by the rest of the players. That’s why the Mavs were last in the league in average time of possession before taking a shot at 15.5 seconds. In the regular season this Dallas team had just 7,902 total possessions which was by far the lowest number in the league. The Mavericks were not a great shooting team during the regular season, ranking 18th at 46.1% overall and 19th in 3-point percentage at 35%. Against a very good Warriors defense they have really struggled at 41% overall and 32% from Deep in this series. Golden State is 3rd overall in the league allowing 105.5PPG, 2nd in FG% D at 43.8% and 3rd in 3PT% defense allowing 33.9%. Golden State is obviously known for their shooters and offense but their points haven’t come easy against this sold Dallas defense that makes them earn every point. Dallas was 6th in defensive efficiency during the regular season allowing just 1.094PPP and 104.7PPG. What we have seen in this series is a steady decline in total field goal attempts with 168 in Game 1, 160 in Game 2 and 156 in Game 3. Those are well below the league average. We like Under here.

ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -6.5 vs. Miami Heat, Game 4 Monday 8:30 PM ET - The Celtics laid an egg in Game 3 against the Heat and will bounce back here on their home court. Boston was flat in the previous game, scoring just 18 points in the 1st quarter after allowing 39. Miami was in control throughout the entire game before the C’s made it interesting late. Tatum had a horrible night for Boston by going 3 of 14 from the field for just 10-points so expect a much better showing in Game 4. Miami could be without their best defender in this game as Jimmy Butler only played 19+ minutes in G3 after reaggravating a lingering knee injury. Not only does that hurt Miami’s defense and primary defender on Tatum or Brown, it takes 21.4PPG and 6RPG away from their offense. Strangely enough, the Heat have only won 2 of the 12 quarters played in this series, yet still hold a 2-1 series advantage. The Law of Averages will start to even out beginning in Game 4 which is now a must-win for Boston. Boston is 24-11 SU when coming off a loss this season with the best average Margin of Victory in the league at +7.6PPG. Including the post season the C’s are 32-16 SU at home and they’ve won those games by +6.8PPG. Miami is 3-3 SU on the road in the playoffs and the three losses have come by an average of 10PPG. If Butler plays or doesn’t we still like Boston big at home.

ASA top play on 10* Dallas Mavericks -2.5 over Golden State Warriors, 9 PM ET - This series shifts to Dallas and the host is going to get a home win here. Golden State blew the Mavs out in Game 1, then Dallas jumped out to a big lead in Game 2 early, then produced just 45 points in the second half to lose by 9. Dallas is in a must win situation here and elite teams find a way to win these games. The Mavs were 29-12 SU at home this season with a +/- of +6.3PPG. Dallas is 5-1 SU at home in the playoffs and their average margin of victory is +11.8PPG. Golden State was 22-19 SU on the road in the regular season which is solid, but they haven’t been great in the postseason with three losses away from home. One of those losses was a 30-point blowout in Memphis. Dallas was 25-11 SU this season off a loss, 10-4 at home. Their average margin of victory when coming off a loss is +6.0PPG. Golden State is 0-4 ATS their last four road games, Dallas has covered 7 of their last eight at home as a chalk. Luka and company will find a way to get this home win!

ASA top play on 10* OVER 207.5 Miami Heat @ Boston Celtics, Game 3 Saturday, 8:30 PM ET - In Game 1 the Celtics did not shoot well from Downtown against Miami as they hit just 11 of 34 3PT attempts. In Game 2 the Celtics shot 51% overall and 50% from beyond the Arc in their blowout win over Miami. Miami, who is the best 3-point shooting team in the league, had an off night from beyond the arc, hitting just 10 of 30 in Game 1 but still managed to score 118 points. In Game 2 the Heat really struggled with a 10 of 34 night from beyond the 3-point line or 29%. These two teams combined for 225 total points in the opener and that’s with Boston scoring only 14 points in the 3rd. In Game 2 the Celtics scored 30 or more points by themselves in 3 of four quarters. Miami is on an 8-1 Over streak their last nine games against a team with a winning record. Boston is 9-2 Over their last eleven when also facing a team with a winning record. In 8 of the last ten meetings between these two teams they’ve combined for more than 207 total points.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 214 Dallas Mavericks @ Golden State Warriors, Game 2 Friday 9 PM ET - After the blowout loss in Game 1 we expect the Mavericks offense to return tonight and a much better shooting performance by Dallas in Game 2. Dallas shot just 36% overall and 23% (11 of 48) from beyond the Arc. Those numbers are well below their season averages of 46.1% and 35%. Dallas managed just 36 total points in the 1st and 4th quarter combined which is well below their season average of 52PPG scored in those two quarters during the regular season. The Warriors shot 56% from the field in Game 1 or 46 of 82. The game plan was clearly to attack the Mavs interior defense which is lacking a rim protector as evidenced by their 29 3-point attempts which was much lower than their season average of 39.5. Both teams are going to make adjustments and have more success from Deep in Game 2 which should push this game Over the number rather easily. Golden State’s home games have averaged 217 total points per game in the postseason. The Mavs road playoff games have averaged 214 total points. The Over is 60% or 6-4 the last ten meetings. We expect both teams to have a much better shooting night from the 3-point line, along with a slightly faster pace throughout the entire game (slowed dramatically in the 4th with the Warriors in cruise control). Bet OVER!

ASA top play on 10* OVER 207.5 Boston Celtics @ Miami Heat, Game 2 Thursday, 8:30 PM ET - The pace of play in Game 1 was extremely slow with only 159 field goal attempts but the big reason the game went Over the total was the volume of free throws by both teams and 3-pointers attempted and made. In Game 1 these two teams attempted 66 free throws which is 22 more than league average for an NBA game. As we predicted in G1 the Celtics would not shoot as well from Downtown against Miami as they did against the Bucks, and they hit just 11 of 34 3PT attempts. We expect adjustments here and a slightly better shooting night in Game 2 from Boston. Miami, who the best 3-point shooting team in the league, had an off night from beyond the arc, hitting just 10 of 30. The Heat should settle in and have a better night from distance in G2. These two teams combined for 225 total points in the opener and that’s with Boston scoring only 14 points in the 3rd. Miami’s home games in the playoffs have averaged 209.5PPG. Boston’s road playoff games have averaged 216 total points. Both teams are in the top half of the league in 3-point attempts which will help this game get Over the number in Game 2.

ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors -4.5 vs Dallas Mavericks, 9 PM ET - This is a tough spot for the Mavs who are coming off a huge upset of the #1 seed Suns with a road win and now travel to face a rested Warriors team. Golden State was 31-10 SU at home in the regular season with the best average Margin of Victory at +9.9PPG. At home the Warriors allowed just 1.039-points per possession which was tops in the league. Golden State is 6-0 in the playoffs with an average MOV of +15PPG with 5 of their wins coming by 6 or more points. Dallas was solid on the road this season during the regular season with a 23-18 SU record and a +/- of +0.3PPG. The Mavericks have very good defensive efficiency numbers on the season but they were much better at home than they were on the road as they ranked 12th in DEFF when away from home. Offensively the Mavs may not have enough weapons to compete with Golden State in this series. Dallas is currently 24th in the league in scoring, Golden State is 13th. The Mavs are 18th in overall team FG%, Golden State is 6th. Dallas is the 15th ranked 3PT shooting team in the NBA, the Warriors are 4th. In the playoffs these teams have similar numbers with the Warriors averaging 1.148PPP and Dallas averaging 1.156PPP. Golden State has been slightly better defensively than the Mavs in the postseason allowing 1.108PPP compared to 1.109PPP for the Mavs. Luka is the best overall player left in the playoffs but the Warriors have too many weapons with Klay, Steph, Draymond and Poole.

ASA top play on 10* Miami Heat Money Line -125 over the Boston Celtics, 8:30 PM ET - Boston is coming off a draining 7-game series over the Bucks, had to travel and have just 1 day off after playing a very short rotation against Milwaukee. The Heat have been off since Thursday the 12th and are plenty rested here. The Celtics benefitted from great 3-point shooting in their series against the Bucks who have a horrible defensive philosophy defending the 3 (and ranked 19th in the NBA in 3PT% D). The Celtics made 53 more 3’s than Milwaukee in the series. Boston isn’t going to get those wide-open looks against Miami who held the 2nd best 3PT% defense in the NBA this season at 33.9%. The C’s were an average shooting team during the regular season, ranking 15th in overall FG% and 14th in 3PT%. Miami shot 46.7% during the regular season which was 13th overall but they were the best or #1 ranked 3-point shooting team at 37.9%. Granted, the Celtics are great at defending the Arc, but they won’t hold this Heat team to 12% as they did the Bucks in Game 7. Miami is 29-12 SU at home this regular season with a +/- of +5.6PPG which is 7th best in the NBA. They’ve gone 6-0 SU at home in the postseason with an average Margin of Victory of +17PPG. This is a bad situation for Boston and a great one for Miami. Bet the Heat!

#524 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Boston -5 over Milwaukee, Sunday at 3:30 PM ET - The Bucks had a chance to put this series away at home on Friday night and came up well short losing 108-95. Milwaukee led in that game for a grand total of 3 minutes! In fact, since the start of the 2nd quarter in game 5, the Bucks have led for just 4:40 of a possible 84:00 minutes and somehow they were able to split those 2 games. Each team won in blowout fashion to split the first 2 games of the series, since then Milwaukee won 2 down to the wire games by 2 & 3 points in which they trailed with under 1:00 minute remaining in each while the Celtics 2 wins since then were by 13 & 8 points. In those 2 tight wins by the Bucks, Boston star Jason Tatum was a combined 16 of 48 from the field (33%) and 2 of 18 from beyond the arc (11%). Even with that, Boston nearly won both of those games. When Tatum has played well, Boston has won comfortably and we expect a big game from him on Sunday. Despite the series being tied at 3-3, Boston has a point differential of +27 in 6 games despite shooting just 40.7% from the field with Milwaukee making 42% of their shots. The Celts are also +18 points vs the spread so far in 6 games. The Bucks are lucky to still be alive in this series. We think it will be very difficult for Milwaukee to win on the road for the 3rd time in this series. We’ll lay the points with Boston.

ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors -8 vs. Memphis Grizzlies, 10 PM ET - The Warriors were HUMILIATED in the last meeting and teams of this caliber will be extra motivated and focused here. Golden State was down 50 in the 3rd quarter of game 5 and were never in it. Let’s not forget the Warriors were 31-10 SU at home with the best average margin of victory at +9.9PPG. GST is also 5-0 at home in the playoffs with a +/- of +15PPG and own a 30-point win a few games ago versus this same Grizzlies team. Golden State was 12-4 SU off a loss this season when playing at home and are 9-4 ATS off a loss of 20+ points this season. The experience and home court advantage will be too much for the Grizzlies to overcome.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 207.5 Miami Heat @ Philadelphia 76ers, 7 PM ET Thursday - The 76ers played well at home in Games 3 & 4 with the return of Joel Embiid and tied this series up 2-2. Then Miami flexed their muscle in Game 5 at home in a blowout. We are betting the 76ers don’t shoot as well as they did in the two home games when they shot 48% overall in Game 3, 48% from Deep. In Game 4 they were even better at 54% overall and 48% from beyond the Arc. In Game 5 they shot just 36% overall and 28% from 3. Philly was below average in terms of team average FG% at 46.6% and had a team 3PT% of 36.4%. Not to mention, the Heat held the 4th best FG% defense this season at 44.7% and were the 2nd best 3PT% defensive team in the league allowing opponents to make 33.9% of their attempts. Miami had two abysmal shooting performances in the two games in Philly. In Game 3 the Heat shot just 35% overall and 23% from 3. Miami then shot 46% in Game 4 but hit just 7 of 35 from Deep or 20%. We don’t expect Miami to shoot as well as they did in the previous game when they hit 54% of their FG attempts and scored 120-points. The field goal attempts for this series has been unusually low with 171, 162, 144, 150 and 169. Don’t forget, league average during the regular season was around 176.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 214.5 Milwaukee Bucks @ Boston Celtics, 7 PM ET Wednesday - We are betting this game will be an old fashion Eastern Conference defensive battle from start to finish. This teams don’t like each other, and it’s elevated both teams play, especially on the defensive end of the court. The first three games of this series all stayed Under the Total and Game 4 was on pace to stay Under again but then the Celtics exploded for 69 points in the second half on 63% shooting. Al Horford for the Celtics “backpacked” his team in the second half with a career playoff high of 30-points. We can’t see the 37-year-old duplicating that type of performance. The Bucks shot just 41% in Game 4 and coach Bud for some unexplained reason played defensive minded George Hill over Bobby Portis which clearly hurt the Bucks offense. In the two games played in Boston the Bucks struggled with their shooting at 43.5% as a team, well below their season average of 46.8%. During the regular season the Bucks were a disappointing 13th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.118-points per possession, but they played a large portion of the season without Brook Lopez. In the Playoffs the Bucks have the #1 ranked DEFF allowing just .998PPP. These two teams have played slow in the postseason with the Celtics ranking 10th of all 16 playoff teams in pace, the Bucks rank 12th. These two teams both end up in the 90’s in this one!

ASA top play on 10* Miami Heat -3 over Philadelphia 76ers, 7:30 PM ET Tuesday - The 76ers got an emotional boost in Games 3 & 4 at home with the return of Joel Embiid and tied this series up 2-2. We are betting the 76ers cannot continue to shoot as well as they did in the two home games when they shot 48% overall in Game 3, 48% from Deep. In Game 4 they were even better at 54% overall and 48% from beyond the Arc. Those numbers aren’t sustainable as Philly was below average in terms of team average FG% at 46.6% and had a team 3PT% of 36.4%. Not to mention, the Heat held the 4th best FG% defense this season at 44.7% and were the 2nd best 3PT% defensive team in the league allowing opponents to make 33.9% of their attempts. Miami also had two abysmal shooting performances in the two games in Philly but should find their stroke again back in South Beach. In Game 3 the Heat shot just 35% overall and 23% from 3. Miami then shot 46% in Game 4 but hit just 7 of 35 from Deep or 20%. Those 3-point statistics are unusually strange considering the Heat are the best 3-point shooting team in the NBA this season at 37.9% and the 76ers allowed 34.6% so expect a much better shooting performance by Miami back at home. Miami was very good off a loss this season with a 20-11 SU record, 10-5 SU at home. The Heat are 34-12 SU at home this season, 5-0 SU in the playoffs. Expect the Heat’s defense to step up here and their 3-point shots to fall. Bet Miami in Game 5.

ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics +1.5 vs Milwaukee Bucks, Game 4 Monday 7:30 PM ET - This game presents another “Zig-Zag” opportunity, so we’ll back the Celtics in this pivotal Game 4. With a win the Celtics can even the series and reclaim home court advantage. Good or bad shooting has played the biggest role in this series and the Celtics are coming off a horrible shooting Game 3 and we expect a correction here. Boston shot just 37% overall and 27% in Game 3 after shooting 47% from beyond the Arc in Game 2. Jayson Tatum (averages 26.9PPG, 8RPG) will bounce back after a poor game in which he scored 10 points on 4 of 19 shooting (0-6 from 3). Even with their All-Star and best player (Tatum) struggling the Celtics still played the Bucks to a 2-point game. Giannis was absolutely incredible in Game 3 with 42-points, 12 rebounds and 8 assists but we doubt he can replicate that performance here. Jrue Holiday contributed 25-point in the G3 win but it took him 30 field goal attempts to get it which isn’t a good sign. Boston has a roster capable of winning it all this season and they’ll bounce back off the previous game loss. The Celtics are 21-12 SU off a loss this season, 10-7 away from home.

ASA top play on 10* Miami Heat +2 over Philadelphia 76ers, 8 PM ET - The 76ers got an emotional boost in Game 3 with the return of Joel Embiid in their 20-point home win, which makes this a 2-1 series in favor of Miami. Embiid didn’t have a big statistical impact with 18-points and 11-rebounds and he’s clearly not 100% with a bad thumb and orbital fracture. The 76ers had a great shooting Game 3 at home with 48% overall and 48% from beyond the 3-point line. Maxey and Green had unusually great games with a combined 42-points and 12 of 15 shooting from beyond the arc. Those numbers aren’t sustainable and will revert back to the norm. Miami also had an abysmal shooting performance in G3 of 35% overall and 23% from 3. The Heat are the best 3-point shooting team in the NBA this season at 37.9% and the 76ers allowed 34.6% so expect a much better shooting performance by Miami in this one. The Heat aren’t intimidated playing on the road as they finished the regular season 24-17 SU with a +/- of +3.4PPG. The 76ers were slightly above average in terms of average margin of victory at +3.1PPG when playing at home this season. Miami was very good off a loss this season with a 20-10 SU record, 10-5 SU away from home. Expect the Heat’s defense to step up here and their 3-point shots to fall. Bet Miami in Game 4.

ASA top play on 10* Milwaukee Bucks -117 over Boston Celtics, 3:30 PM ET - Based on the line in the opening game of this series this number should be slightly higher than it is so we’ll gladly take the value and the Bucks off a loss, back at home. Specifically in Game 2, the Celtics had a remarkably well shooting night from beyond the arc at 47% or 20 of 43. Those are surprising numbers considering Boston was 14th in the league in 3PT% at 35.5%. Granted, the Bucks aren’t great defending the 3-point line (35.6%) but the 47% in Game 2 was more of an aberration than a norm. Speaking of 3-pointers, the Bucks were the 5th best 3-point shooting team in the NBA this season at 36.6% but in Game 2 they hit just 17% or 3 of 18. That’s not going to happen again with the Bucks back on their home court. Milwaukee was 22-11 SU off a loss this season, 13-7 at home. Let’s not forget the Bucks are 12-2 SU their last 14 home playoff games dating back to last season and the Celtics are a young team playing a huge game on the road. This is a classic Zig-Zag spot to back the home team Bucks!

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 211 Miami Heat @ Philadelphia 76ers, 7 PM ET - Game 1 finished with 198 total points, Game 2 ended with 222 but based on the field goal attempts, they both should have finished Under the Totals. In Game 1 these two teams attempted 171 field goals, in Game 2 it dropped to 162. League average this season was 176 which contributed to roughly 220PPG. The 76ers offense has struggled without potential MVP Joel Embiid in the lineup for the first two games and he’s been ruled out again for Game 3. The 76ers have shot under 22% from beyond the arc in the series and 44% overall from the field. Miami has had two solid shooting nights on their home floor at 47% overall but expect some struggles on the road in this pivotal Game 3. Philadelphia was the 7th best defense in terms of points allowed at home this season (106.8) while the Heat were the 2nd best team in the league in points allowed on the road at 105.6PPG. Miami was the 3rd slowest paced team in the NBA during the regular season, Philadelphia was 6th slowest and in the playoffs both have been slower yet. This game sets up for an Under wager!

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 216.5 Dallas Mavericks @ Phoenix Suns, 10 PM ET - These two teams combined for 235 total points in Game 1 but did it by taking just 120 field goal attempts. That’s insane! The league average for FGA in an average game is 176 this season. The Mavs averaged 1.20-points per possession, Phoenix was even better yet at 1.30PPP. What makes that especially unique is the fact that these two teams finished top 6 in the NBA in defensive efficiency during the regular season. Phoenix was 3rd in the league allowing just 1.074PPP, Dallas gave up just 1.094PPP. The Mavericks were the slowest paced team in the NBA during the regular season while the Suns were 8th fastest but, in the postseason, they’ve preferred a much slower tempo averaging 93.4 possessions per game. We can assume Dallas will shoot better than the 41% they hit in Game 1 but it is highly unlikely the Suns shoot 64% from the field and 50% from deep in Game 2. Granted Game 1 went Over because of the Suns shooting but the three regular season meetings between these two teams all finished with 216 or less points. The Under is the play here.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 227.5 Golden State Warriors @ Memphis Grizzlies, 9:30 PM ET - Game 1 of this series is a clear indicator of how this game is going to play out too as the two teams combined for 188 total field goals which is 12 more than league average. The Warriors had 106 possessions in Game 1, Memphis had 104 and both teams attempted a shot within the first 13.8 seconds of their offensive possession. Those numbers dramatically suggest another Over here when you consider the league averages for the entire season of 99 possessions per game and on average it took teams 14.5 seconds to get a shot up. Again, looking at the baseline of the regular season we see all NBA games finished with roughly 220 total points. This number is barely higher than that and it’s not like either team shot insanely well in Game 1 and they got to 233 total points. Golden State shot 47% on the season and hit 48% in G1. Memphis shot 46% for the year but only hit 43% in the opener and still scored 116 points. The oddsmaker have adjusted this number up slightly compared to Game 1 but it’s not enough. BET OVER!

ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -4.5 vs. Milwaukee Bucks, 7 PM ET - Let’s not over-react to Game 1 of this series and predict the Bucks are winning this series. Did the Bucks play extremely well in the opener, or did Boston play that poorly? We feel it was the latter and the Celtics under-performed. Don’t forget Boston is 30-7 SU their last thirty-seven games and were the best team in the NBA the second half of the season. In Game 1, the Celtics really struggled, shooting only 33.3% from the field, which is WELL below their season average of 46.6%. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown were especially bad, shooting 32.3%, and combining for just 33-points. In the four games against the Nets those two combined to average 52-points per game. For the season the Celtics were 30-14 SU at home with an average +/- of +6.4PPG which was the 5th best average MOV in the NBA this season. When coming off a loss the Celtics were 20-12 SU on the year with a +/- of +6.3PPG, 10-5 SU at home. Granted, Milwaukee was very good on the road this season at 27-17 SU but given the circumstances of: no Khris Middleton and his 20PPG average, along with Boston in a must-win situation, we have to lay the points here.

ASA top play on: Phoenix Suns 5.5 vs Dallas Mavericks, 10 PM ET - We felt going into the Playoffs that the Suns were the team to beat. In this opening series game we like them to flex their muscle at home and produce a double-digit win over the Mavs. Dallas is 23-18 SU on the road this season with a +/- of +.03 which is clearly respectable. The Phoenix Suns though were 32-9 SU at home this season with the 4th best average Margin of Victory of +8.9PPG. In the two regular season meetings in Phoenix the Suns were favored by -8 and -8.5 points so we are getting slight value with them here in this matchup. Phoenix swept the 3-game season series with all three wins coming by 7 or more points. Defensively these teams are eerily similar to each other ranking 3rd and 6th in defensive efficiency but offensively the Suns hold a big advantage with the 5th best OEFF rating compared to the Mavs 14th. Dallas ranks 18th and 19th in overall FG% and 3PT% while the Suns are the best overall shooting team in the NBA and rank 9th in 3-point percentage. The Mavericks don’t rebound the ball well with the 24th ranked offensive rebounding unit in the league so second chances are going to be hard to come by. Phoenix wins this game big.

ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors -120 @ Memphis Grizzlies, Sunday 3:30 PM ET - The Grizzlies are about to step up to the big time with a playoff series against an experienced playoff team that is built to win Championships. Memphis got past a young Minnesota team that blew several second half double-digit leads because of their youth and inexperience. That’s not about to happen here against the Warriors. Memphis beat the Warriors the last two meetings of the regular season but most recently the Warriors were without Klay Thompson, Steph Curry and Draymond Green. On Jan 11th these teams met in Memphis with the Grizzlies winning 116-108 but Golden State was without Green and Thompson was just coming back and only played 19-minutes. The Warriors looked like a serious contender in their near series sweep of the Nuggets in opening round with an offense that averaged 1.219-points per possession. Golden State shot 54.5% in the series overall and 45.1% from Deep in the opening round. Rest will be a key factor here also as the Warriors have 3+ days off, while Memphis just played Friday night in Minnesota in their emotional win. Golden State is 7-1 ATS their last eight games when playing with this type of rest while the Grizzlies have failed to cover 4 straight as a Dog. Speaking of being a dog here, why is the #2 Seed and home dog in this game? That’s right, the oddsmakers are telling us something here, bet the road favorite! Value here with the low money line rather than laying the bucket so we'll grab the money line here!

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 229 Memphis Grizzlies @ Minnesota Timberwolves, 9 PM ET - Three of the five meetings in this series have stayed Under 229 total points with the most recent game finishing with 220. Over the course of the regular season the Grizzlies attempted 94 field goals per game while the Wolves attempted 90 per game. In this series those attempts have dropped significantly with the Grizz taking 88.2 FGA per game, the Wolves are getting up just 81.6. The five games themselves have averaged 224.6 total points scored per game. Both teams are also shooting below their season field goal percentages in this series with Memphis shooting 45.1%, Minnesota is hitting 44.1%. With the pressure on for both teams we don’t expect shots to fall in this elimination game and the defenses will step up. Bet UNDER.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 209.5 Dallas Mavericks @ Utah Jazz, 10 PM ET - With the Mavs holding a 3-2 advantage in this series the pressure is on for both teams which will lead to a lower scoring game. With that said we expect the defensive energy to be high for both teams. Pace is critical here and these two teams are the two lowest possession teams currently in the Playoffs as the Mavs have 365 total possessions, Utah sits with 368. These teams averaged 96 (Dallas) and 98 (Utah) possessions per game during the regular season and are now averaging just 92. Not only that, but the Mavs have, on average, taken 16.8 seconds per field goal attempt which is slowest among all Playoff teams. Utah is faster at 14.7 seconds per FGA, but they’ve struggled to score as a byproduct of the Mavs perimeter defense and their lack of 3-point makes and attempts. Utah is reliant on 3-pointers with the 2nd most 3-point attempts per game during the regular season at 39.8 per game. They made 35.9% of those 3-point attempts during the regular season but have made just 30.7 % in the five games of this series. These two teams were both top 10 in defensive efficiency during the regular season allowing less than .970-points per possession. The first game of this series in had a posted Total of 208.5 so this number is still slightly higher than what Vegas originally projected. The Jazz offense has really struggled against this Dallas defense scoring 104 or less in 4 of the five games and now their best offensive player in Donovan Mitchell is either out or less than 100% with a pulled hamstring.

ASA top play on UNDER 217.5 Chicago Bulls @ Milwaukee Bucks, 7:30 PM ET - The Bulls offense has really struggled in this series and now they will be without a key piece as Zach LaVine is in health and safety protocol. A combination of great Bucks defense and poor Bulls offense has led to Chicago scoring just .94-points per possession in this series which is the lowest among all playoff teams. Milwaukee hasn’t been much better at 1.07PPP which is 13th worst out of 16 teams. In this series the Bulls have shot 39.8% overall and just 28% from beyond the arc. That’s significant considering the Bucks don’t defend the 3-point line well at all ranking 19th in the NBA in that defensive category. Milwaukee has overcome the loss of Khris Middleton with two straight huge games by Grayson Allan scoring 22-points on 8 of 12 shotting form the field including 5 of 7 from deep in Game 3. Then Allan put up 27-points on 10 of 12 shooting including 6 of 7 from downtown. The Bulls will make adjustments here and you cannot expect him to continue shooting that well here. Chicago has scored 95 or less in 3 of the four games and it’s going to be tough to score here without LaVine. The Under is the bet here.

ASA top play on 10* Miami Heat –6.5 vs Atlanta Hawks, 7 PM ET Tuesday - If you read our Efficiency Champions article you know we talked about the Heat being one of just five teams that historically, fall into a category that can win it all in 2022. Miami is 10th in offensive efficiency for the season and owns the 5th best defensive efficiency rating allowing 1.091-points per possession. The Heat's defense has been even better in this series by holding the Hawks to 1.030PPP which is the second-best number in the postseason behind the Bucks. Miami has held Hawks All-Star guard Trae Young to a pair of his worst offensive showings all season long. Atlanta can’t boast the same statistical dominance that the Heat have as the Hawks ranked 2nd in offensive efficiency but were 26th in defensive efficiency which is the worst of any playoff team. Miami is the BEST 3-point shooting team in the NBA at 37.9% and the Hawks are 25th in the league in defending the 3. Conversely, the Hawks rely on their 3-point shooting at 37.4% (2nd) but the Heat defend the Arc with the 2nd best 3PT% D in the league allowing just 33.9%! Miami was 29-12 SU at home with a +/- of +5.6PPG during the regular season and have won both home games versus the Hawks by double-digits in this series. The Hawks were 16-25 SU away from home with a negative differential of minus -1.9PPG during the reg ssn. Miami has covered 7 of the last eight on this court against the Hawks.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 213 Utah Jazz @ Dallas Mavericks, 9:30 PM ET - With this series even at 2 games apiece this becomes a huge swing game in the winners favor to advance. With that said we expect the defensive energy to be high for both teams. Pace is critical here and these two teams are the two lowest possession teams currently in the Playoffs. Not only that, but the Mavs have, on average, taken 16.8 seconds per field goal attempt which is slowest among all Playoff teams. Utah is faster at 14.7 seconds per FGA, but they’ve struggled to score as a byproduct of the Mavs perimeter defense and their lack of 3-point makes and attempts. Utah is reliant on 3-pointers with the 2nd most 3-point attempts per game during the regular season at 39.8 per game. They made 35.9% of those 3-point attempts during the regular season but have made just 324 % in the four games of this series. These two teams were both top 10 in defensive efficiency during the regular season allowing less than .970-points per possession. The first two games of this series in Dallas had Totals posted of 208.5 and 206 so grab the extra value with the current number and bet UNDER!

ASA top play on 10* Miami Heat -120 over Atlanta Hawks, 7 PM ET - We are going to keep this one pretty simple in terms of analysis and back the Heat in Game 4. In the first two games of the series the Heat outscored the Hawks by a combined +34-points and then lost Game 3 by 1-point late. Miami has clearly been the dominant team in the series and are one play away from being up 3-0. The Heat have averaged 1.160-points per possession in the series, the Hawks have averaged 1.050PPP which is the 3rd worst number of all the teams in the first round. Let’s also point out the Heat were the 4th best defensive efficiency team in the NBA during the regular season allowing just 1.080PPP compared to the Hawks who ranked 26th worst, giving up 1.130PPP. Miami was very good off a loss this season with a 14-7 SU record and even if Lowry can’t go they’ll get this road win and a commanding lead in the series.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 232.5 Memphis Grizzlies @ Minnesota Timberwolves, 10 PM ET - These two teams were 1st and 3rd in pace of play during the regular season at 100.3 and 100.9 possessions per game. Not only did they play fast, but they were also efficient offensively ranking 5th and 7th in OEFF at 1.144-points per possession and 1.147PPP. During the regular season those two key factors translated to nearly 116PPG for each team. In the Playoffs though, they’ve continued to play fast but their offensive numbers have dipped to 1.126PPP for the Grizzlies and 1.046PPP for the Wolves. What these two teams did especially well during the regular season was play defense when either at home or on the road. Minnesota owned the 7th best road defensive efficiency rating in the league allowing 1.074-points per possession, Memphis was 9th on the road in DEFF giving up 1.109PPP. Seven of the 12 quarters in this series has seen 55 or less points being scored. Both teams struggled shooting the ball in Game 3 as the Wolves hit just 39% of their attempts, Memphis made 42%. This series has gotten chippy and will have an intense defensive attitude in Game 4 which will lead to an easy UNDER!

ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets -2.5 over Boston Celtics, 7:30 PM ET - Much has been made of Kevin Durant and his struggles in this series, but that is about to change here. Statistically, we are betting things return to normal for KD back in the friendly confines of Brooklyn. Durant shot just 9 of 24, 1 of 5 from 3 in Game 1. He then struggled in Game 2 by going 4 of 17 from the field and 1 of 2 from Deep. On the season he’s a 51.8% shooter from the filed and 38.3% from beyond the arc. Let’s also consider the Nets have average 1.160-points per possession in the two games even with his shooting woes. Boston has played extremely well in the first two games but now go on the road and face a veteran team in a must win situation. Don’t be misled by the Nets home numbers this season as Kyrie missed most of the home games due to Covid mandates. Brooklyn did go 7-2 SU their last nine home games and every one of those wins came by 5 or more points. We are banking Kyrie and KD will make a series of this yet and it has to start here. Lay it!

ASA top play on 10* Chicago Bulls +3 vs Milwaukee Bucks, 8:30 PM ET - The Bucks look like the Playoff Bucks from a year ago where teams have made adjustments to stop their offensive flow, but coach Bud doesn’t make any counter moves. Now the Bucks need to find a way to win without their second-best scorer Khris Middleton who is out with a knee injury. The Bulls struggled in the opener managing just 86-points in Game 1 on 32.3% shooting. In Game 2 the Bulls found a rhythm on offense adn shot 49.4% from the field. After struggling in Game 1, DeMar DeRozan bounced back in Game 2 by hitting 16 of 31 (51.6%) and scored a career playoff-high 41 points. In Game 1, the Bulls' “Big 3” of DeRozan, Nikola Vucevic and Zach LaVine went 21 of 71 (29.6%) from the field. In Game 2 those three players were 33 of 62 (53.2%). Milwaukee is going to miss Middleton’s scoring and we don’t see anyone stepping up to fill the void. In Game 1 it wasn’t a case of the Bucks playing great, as we touched on, the Bulls couldn’t buy a basket. Milwaukee won a close game with Middleton going 5 of 20 from the field for 11-points. Chicago shot 48.5% at home this season and the atmosphere/energy will be high tonight in Game 3. The Bulls were 27-14 SU at home in the regular season with a +/- of +2.4PPG. Grab the points with the home dog.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 224.5 Golden State Warriors @ Denver Nuggets, 10 PM ET - Both games have gone Over the number but we like this one to stay Under. In Game 2 the Warriors had another incredible shooting night at 55% overall and 42% from Deep (17 of 40) which helped that game go Over the number. These two teams had an insanely high scoring 3rd quarter in Game 2 of 74-points and we don’t see them duplicating that type of number here. Golden State won’t shoot as well on the road as they did at home where they made 33 of 75 3-pointers in the first two games. We doubt Jordan Poole can continue his torrid shooting on the road too as he’s accounted for 10 of 17 made 3-pointers for the Warriors. Golden State has averaged 1.300-points per possession in the two games which is not sustainable and significantly higher than the league average of 1.130PPP, which is what Denver is averaging. Denver has scored 107 and 106 points and we don’t see much changing here as the Warriors defense has been one of the best in the league all season long allowing 1.070-points per possession (2nd). Golden State was 14th in pace of play this season, Denver was 19th so neither wants to play fast. In fact, in the two playoff games these two these two teams have both averaged 15.2-seconds to get a shot up which is in the bottom half of all the teams left in the post season. Both games in this series have gone Over, yet the Total remains the same? Bet UNDER!

ASA top play on 10* Chicago Bulls +10 at Milwaukee Bucks, 9:30 PM ET - We are betting Game 2 is going to be a dog fight and we like the double-digits with the Bulls. Game 1 of this series was ugly to say the least. The Bucks averaged .93-points per possession in the opener, the Bulls .85PPP. Those numbers were well below both teams' season averages of 1.14PPP (Bucks) and 1.12PPP (Bulls). The Bulls had an especially bad shooting night at 32% which is WELL below their season average of 48% which was the 3rd best shooting percentage in the NBA this season. Chicago also hit 36.9% from beyond the arc in the regular season but hit just 7 of 37 from deep or 19%. The Bucks didn’t shoot overly well either but not nearly as bad as Chicago. The Bucks were one of the worst home favorites in the NBA this season and their +/- at home wasn’t great at +4.2PPG which is down from +8.9PPG a year ago. Milwaukee was 14-24 ATS at home laying points this season with an average margin of victory in those games of +4.9PPG. Consider this, the Bulls have been double-digit dogs just two times this season and they are 2-0 ATS. Chicago has covered 8 of the last eleven here and will keep this game close throughout.

ASA top play on 10* Memphis Grizzlies -6.5 over Minnesota Timberwolves. Tuesday 8:30 PM ET - It’s do-or-die here for the Grizzlies after the opening series loss at home in Game 1. The Grizzlies didn’t look interested from the opening tip and thought they were going to cruise to a victory. The Wolves started hot, gained confidence, and played well throughout. We don’t see Minnesota shooting 50% in Game 2 or outrebounding the Grizzlies by a +11 margin. Minny shot well above their season average from beyond the arc, Memphis shot well below. Memphis is one of only 5 teams in the entire NBA that ranks top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, and they own the 4th best efficiency differential in the league. The Grizzlies have the second-best home +/- in the league at +9.2PPG to go along with their 31-11 SU home record. As a home favorite the Grizz are 19-12 ATS with an average Margin of Victory of +11.6PPG. The Wolves were 21-21 SU away from home this season with a +/- of plus +0.2PPG. Minnesota had the 2nd best offensive efficiency ratings on the road this season but were 25th in DEFF allowing 1.161-points per possession. The Wolves are not a great shooting team averaging 45.7% from the field which is 22nd in the NBA. They’ll have a tough time scoring against a Grizzlies team that allowed the 12th fewest points in the league, held foes to 45.5% (10th) and 34.9% from beyond the arc (11th). The glaring difference between these two is rebounding as the Grizzlies are 1st in the NBA in offensive rebounds per game, 7th in defense. Minnesota (who isn’t a great shooting team) ranks 16th in offensive rebounding, 23rd in defensive. Memphis is 10-4 SU at home off a loss this season.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 224.5 Denver Nuggets @ Golden State Warriors, 10 PM ET - These two teams combined for 230 total points in the opener but 70 of those points came in the 4th quarter. Golden State shot exceptionally well in the game at 52% overall and 46% from Deep. The Warriors scored 1.28 points per possession which was much higher than their season average of 1.126PPP. The pace of play wasn’t overly fast as the Warriors had 95 possessions to the Nuggets 94 which are both less than league average. Over the course of the regular season the NBA average for a team to shoot on offense was 14.5 second and the Warriors took 15.8 seconds per possession, the Nuggets were 14.7. Denver was near their season average for offensive efficiency at 1.14-points per possession. Golden State finished the regular season as one of the best overall defenses in the NBA ranking top 5 in most key categories. Denver was 10th in 3-point percentage defense so don’t expect the Warriors to light it up from deep again with the Nuggets making some adjustments. This game stays below 220.

ASA top play on 10* Utah Jazz -5 @ Dallas Mavericks, 8:30 PM ET - I am going contrarian here as the numbers tell us its not time to use the Zig-Zag theory in this series. The Jazz got off to a slow start in Game 1 with an offensive efficiency rating or .91 in the 1st quarter which is well below their season average of 1.160PPP. For the game the Jazz shot 43% as a team overall and 32% from beyond the arc. Those numbers are significantly lower than their season averages of 47.1% and 36% which both rank in the top 11 of the NBA. Utah has had some issues with closing out games recently but the confidence gained in the opener should carry over here. Dallas averaged 1.010PPP in Game 1 which is lower than their season statistics but it’s still higher than anticipated with the absence of Luka Doncic. The Mavs will struggle to score again in this contest as Brunson and Dinwiddie can’t carry a team like Luka does. As we mentioned previously, the Jazz are one of five teams with offensive and defensive efficiency numbers good enough to win it all this year. Back them here as a short favorite.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 229.5 Chicago Bulls @ Milwaukee Bucks, 6:30 PM ET - We have two of the better offenses squaring off here with a Bucks team that is the 3rd most efficient offense in the NBA at 1.152-points per possession, while the Bulls are 13th at 1.132PPP. The Bucks have slipped defensively this season to 13th in DEFF allowing 1.118PPP while the Bulls are 22nd giving up 1.136PPP. The Bucks are 3rd in points scored per game, 12th in shooting and the 5th best 3-point shooting percentage. Chicago is 13th in scoring, 3rd in team FG% and 4th in 3PT%. Neither team defends the 3-point line well at all with the Bulls ranking 27th in 3PT% defense, the Bucks are 19th giving up 35.6%. Milwaukee is the home team here and they will dictate tempo which should be fast. The Bucks are 6th in pace of play on the season with 99.9 possessions per game, since the All-Star break though they have played faster yet at 101.4 possessions per game. In the three most recent meetings between these two teams (since March 4th) they have combined for 230, 234 and 233 total points. They should get to 230+ here too.

ASA top play on 10* Miami Heat -6.5 vs Atlanta Hawks, 1 PM ET Sunday - If you read our Efficiency Champions article you know we talked about the Heat being one of just five teams that historically, fall into a category that can win it all in 2022. Miami is 10th in offensive efficiency for the season and owns the 5th best defensive efficiency rating allowing 1.091-points per possession. The Heat put up those impressive statistics with a roster that was hit harder than most with Covid issues. The Hawks have won two emotional games in the play-in contest and will have a hard time getting up for a third big game in a row. Not to mention they lost their starting center Capela versus the Cavs. Atlanta can’t boast the same statistical dominance that the Heat have as the Hawks ranked 2nd in offensive efficiency but were 26th in defensive efficiency which is the worst of any playoff team. Miami is the BEST 3-point shooting team in the NBA at 37.9% and the Hawks are 25th in the league in defending the 3. Conversely, the Hawks rely on their 3-point shooting at 37.4% (2nd) but the Heat defend the Arc with the 2nd best 3PT% D in the league allowing just 33.9%. These two teams met on April 8th in a meaningless game for the Heat (had sown up the #1 seed) and a purposeful game for Atlanta, yet the Heat won by 4-points. This time around it’s going to be much worse, and we call for a BLOWOUT! Miami was 29-12 SU at home with a +/- of +5.6PPG. The Hawks were 16-25 SU away from home with a negative differential of minus -1.9PPG. Miami has covered 5 of the last six here against the Hawks.

ASA top play on 10* Memphis Grizzlies -6.5 over Minnesota Timberwolves. Sat 3:30 PM ET - We’re not sure everyone fully realizes just how good this Grizzlies team is and we feel they could make a serious run in the West. Memphis is one of only 5 teams in the entire NBA that ranks top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, and they own the 4th best efficiency differential in the league. The Grizzlies have the second-best home +/- in the league at +9.2PPG to go along with their 31-10 SU home record. As a home favorite the Grizz are 19-11 ATS with an average Margin of Victory of +11.6PPG. Minnesota is coming off a big home win over the Clippers and celebrated like they won the NBA Finals and we expect a letdown here. The Wolves were 20-21 SU away from home this season with a +/- of plus +0.2PPG. Minnesota had the 2nd best offensive efficiency ratings on the road this season but were 25th in DEFF allowing 1.161-points per possession. The Wolves are not a great shooting team averaging 45.7% from the field which is 22nd in the NBA. They’ll have a tough time scoring against a Grizzlies team that allowed the 12th fewest points in the league, held foes to 45.5% (10th) and 34.9% from beyond the arc (11th). The glaring difference between these two is rebounding as the Grizzlies are 1st in the NBA in offensive rebounds per game, 7th in defense. Minnesota (who isn’t a great shooting team) ranks 16th in offensive rebounding, 23rd in defensive. Memphis is 10-3 SU at home off a loss this season and the home team has won all four meetings between these two teams this season by an average of 16PPG.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 234 Minnesota Timberwolves @ Memphis Grizzlies 3:30 PM ET - PACE! These two teams are going to play fast which means plenty of extra possessions for each team and more scoring opportunities. The Wolves are the fastest paced team in the league at 100.9 possessions per game. Memphis is 3rd in pace at 100.3 possessions per game. Not only do these teams get up and down the court in a fast manner but shots go up quickly. The Wolves average a FG attempts every 13.8 seconds on offense which is 2nd fastest, Memphis is 7th at 14.1 seconds. It typically doesn’t take opponents long to get a shot up against these defenses either as teams playing Memphis take 14.3 seconds to get a field goal attempt up, Minnesota foes take 14.4 seconds to attempt to score. The Grizzlies are 1st in the league in fastbreak points per game, the Wolves are 4th. Both teams also struggle to stop opposing fastbreak points per game with the Wolves ranking 26th worst in the NBA, Memphis is 21st. These two teams are also top 8 in offensive efficiency as the Grizzlies average 1.147-points per possession, the Wolves are 7th at 1.144PPP. Minnesota has gone OVER in 36 of 52 road games this season, Grizzlies OVER in 7 of their last eight when playing with 3 or more days rest. In the most recent meeting between these two teams the O/U posted was 240 and the two teams combined for 233 total points. In that recent game the Grizzlies shot just 39% which is well below their season average of 46.1%. This has all the makings of a shootout!

ASA top play on 10* LA Clippers -3.5 vs New Orleans Pelicans, 10 PM ET - We like this situation for several reasons. First the win/loss results of each teams play-in games with the Clippers home off a loss and the Pelicans on the road off a win. Despite not having their two best players for portions of the season (Leonard has been out all year) the Clippers own a 25-16 SU record at home this season with a +/- of +2.5PPG. Again, despite injuries the Clippers are a respectable 22-19 SU off a loss this season, 11-8 SU at home in that situation. L.A. has played well in Paul George’s return going 7-2 SU their last nine games allowing 109 or less points defensively in 5 straight games. The Clippers hold a decisive advantage over the Pelicans defensively with a unit that ranks 11th in PPG allowed, 6th in FG% defense and 7th in 3-point percentage. Comparatively, the Pelicans rank 13th in points allowed, 24th in opponents FG% and 26th defending the 3-point line. Offensively these two teams are similar and we would even lean towards the Clippers on that end of the floor with the return of George and Powell. Both teams rank in the low 20’s in scoring and overall FG% but the Clippers are by far the better 3-point shooting team at 37.4% compared to the Pels 33.2%. We like the Clippers who have covered 5 of their last six as a Chalk, against a Pelicans teams that is 1-5 ATS their last six against a team with an above .500 record.

ASA top play on 10* New Orleans Pelicans -5 over San Antonio Spurs, 9:30 PM ET - The Pelicans have played really well since they traded for CJ McCollum shortly before the All-Star break. Since the break the Pelicans are just 13-10 SU but they have the 6th best average point differential in the league at +4.7PPG. In that same time frame, they own the 9th best offensive efficiency ratings (1.181PPP) and defensive efficiency rating (1.133PPP) and they did that with Brandon Ingram missing several games. The young Spurs have played well also but they are hovering around league average in both OEFF and DEFF for the season. For the year the Spurs are 18-23 SU on the road but do own a +/- of +0.4PPG. This game comes down to the veteran leadership of McCollum, Ingram and Valanciunas who are better than the top 3 for the Spurs. New Orleans by double-digits.

ASA top play on 10* Minnesota Timberwolves -2.5 vs LA Clippers, Tuesday 9:30 PM ET - Granted the Clippers recently got Paul George back and Norman Powell but the Timberwolves have been the better team all season long. Remember we predicted the Wolves would go over their win total this season and we will continue to back them here. Karl Anthony Towns has been outstanding this season averaging 24.6PPG and 9.8 rebounds per game along with 1.1 blocks and 3.6 assists per game. The Clippers have won 5 straight games but those wins need to be taken with a grain of salt. They beat two horrible teams in the Thunder and Kings that were tanking. Phoenix was off a big win the night before against the Lakers and were locked into the #1 seed. The game before they beat the #9 seed Pelicans and prior to that they beat a Bucks team that sat their starters. So don’t be fooled by that current streak. Minnesota was pretty much settled into their playoff position and were focused on staying healthy and fresh for the postseason. The Wolves are far superior offensively ranking 8th in offensive efficiency compared to the Clippers who rank 24th. Defensively the Clippers hold an advantage ranking 8th in DEFF but the gap isn’t as wide as you’d think with the Wolves 14th. Minnesota is much better at home defensively allowing 1.074-points per possession compared to their season PPP allowed of 1.118PPP. Minny is 26-15 SU at home this season with an average +/- of +5PPG. The Clippers are 17-24 SU away from home this season with a negative differential of minus -2.4PPG which is 19th in the NBA. Throw out history here and simply bet the team that is currently better. Bet Minnesota!

ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors -4.5 over New Orleans Pelicans, 9:30 PM ET - The Warriors still have some incentive to win here as they lock up the #3 seed in the West with a win. The Pelicans are locked into the 9 seed and will host San Antonio in a play-in game. Both teams played last night but the Pelicans will be playing their 3rd game in four days and are in their 6th game in a 10-day span and rest right now is more important than anything. New Orleans will give their bench players (which isn’t good to begin with, 8th worst in bench scoring) extended playing time here. The Warriors will play starters less in this game, but they have a bench that has produced the 11th most points per game in the NBA. In general, when playing unrested the Pels are 3-11 SU with an average +/- of -6.4PPG while the Warriors are 9-5 SU +4.5PPG. New Orleans ranks in the 20’s in most key defensive categories, the Warriors rank top 5. Offensively it isn’t close either as the Pels are 21st in scoring, 21st in 3PT% and 27th in 3PT%. Golden State is 15th in scoring, 12th in FG% and 9th in 3PT%. This is a short number and we’ll lay it with the road team!

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 216.5 Toronto Raptors vs. NY Knicks, 7 PM ET - The Raptors are set for the 5th seed in the East and have nothing to play for. The Knicks are done for the year and are looking forward to the offseason. The Knicks offense has been bad all season long ranking 27th in scoring, 27th in shooting and 13th in 3PT% offense. They hold the 22nd ranked offensive efficiency rating at 1.106PPP. Putting up points in this game will be tough to do versus a Raptors defense that is 5th best in defensive efficiency since the All-Star break and ranks 7th in PPG allowed. Conversely, the Raptors could struggle to score here against a Knicks defense that is 6th in points allowed, 5th in FG% defense, 6th in 3PT% defense and 10th in defensive rebounding. Toronto is 20th in scoring at 109.6PPG, 25th in shooting 19th in 3PT%. Toronto has played in 4 higher scoring games recently but that came against either fast paced teams or higher scoring teams and the Knicks are neither. The Knicks are on a 5-2 Under streak, Toronto Under in 5 straight road games. The play here is UNDER!

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 224.5 Sacramento Kings @ LA Clippers, 9:40 PM ET - Our model is projecting just 219 total points being scored here with the Kings out of the playoffs and the Clippers settled into their seed. LA is locked into their positions in the Western Conference and will face the Timberwolves on Tuesday. They are still in the process of building chemistry with Paul George and Norman Powell back in the lineup but they really don’t have anything to play for here. Sacramento’s season has been over for a long time and now it’s all about a higher lottery pick. Looking at the recent schedule of the Kings we see they’ve really struggled offensively against good defensive teams and only put up points against a Rockets defense that is one of the worst in the league. Since the All-Star break the Kings are averaging 112PPG and 1.106-points per possession which is 26th in the NBA. In their last five games the Kings have been even worse with an average of 1.093PPP and that’s with two games versus the Rockets, who allow 1.166PPP (2nd to last in the league). The Clippers own the 8th best defensive efficiency numbers in the league at 1.106PPG and hold foes to 108.8PPG (11th). LA is 6th in team FG% defense, 10th in 3PT% defense. Neither offense is great as both rank in the bottom half of the league in most key offensive categories (FG%, 3PT%, PPG). The Clippers are 25th in offensive efficiency, the Kings are 24th. The Clipper home games have averaged 216.7 total points per game. In the two most recent meetings between these two teams they have scored 194 and 203 total points. BET UNDER

ASA top play on 10* OVER 232 Charlotte Hornets @ Chicago Bulls, 8:10 PM ET - Both teams have incentive to play well tonight as they still have a chance to improve their playoff positioning. Charlotte has been one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA all season long allowing 1.137-points per possession which is 24th in the NBA. Chicago hasn’t been much better giving up 1.132PPP which is 21st worst in the league. Since the All-Star break both teams have been even worse yet allowing more than 1.163-points per possession. The Hornets allow 115PPG which is 26th in the NBA, allowing 46.6% shooting (20th) and 36.1% 3-point shooting which is 22nd. Chicago’s numbers look similar to the Hornets allowing 111.6PPG, 47.2% shooting by opponents and 36.5 3PT%. What both teams do well though is play fast and score points. The Bulls rank 3rd in team FG%, 5th in 3PT% and score over 111PPG. Charlotte is 4th in the NBA in scoring at 115PPG with the 10th best 3PT% shooting and 14th best overall FG%. Charlotte is coming off a game last night and in that scheduling situation they are 8-6 Over with those games averaging 239.4PPG. The Bulls are off 4 low scoring games but those came against 4 of the better defenses in the NBA. All the indicators say OVER here.

ASA top play on 10* Chicago Bulls -2 over Charlotte Hornets, 8:10 PM ET - Both teams have incentive to play well here so we know what kind of effort to expect from both teams. Scheduling clearly favors the Bulls here who are rested but off three straight losses and looking to rebound off a blowout loss to the Celtics. Charlotte is coming off a game last night and playing their 3rd game in four days. The Hornets beat the Magic last night but had suffered a pair of crushing losses to the Heat and 76ers where they gave up 144-points in each. The Bulls three recent losses came against the Celtics, Bucks and Heat who are the three best teams in the Eastern Conference. The Bulls have been solid at home all season long with a 27-13 SU record and a +/- of +2.8PPG. The Hornets are a respectable 20-20 SU away with a +/- of -1PPG. Charlotte is 1-13 SU on the season when playing without rest, 3-11 ATS minus nearly -6PPG. The Bulls have struggled covering numbers of late but this line is so low we’re basically just asking them to win. Easy call on the Bulls!

ASA top play on 10* OVER 222 LA Lakers @ Golden State Warriors, 10 PM ET - Hasta la vista Lakers! This roster was put together by LeBron and was destined to fail right from the start. Los Angeles will miss the playoffs and will have to make major moves in the offseason if they expect to compete next season. Was it a coincidence that LeBron sat several games down the stretch against good defensive teams and when his team was in dire need of him to make the playoffs? He needs to play in the final three games to be eligible for the scoring title so I’d be surprised if he doesn’t play here. The Lakers are 12th in scoring at 111.6PPG and 7th in overall FG% offense and if they get to 110 or more this game goes Over. A big reason why will be the points the Warriors put up. Golden State is still playing for a better playoff position, so we know what kind of effort we’ll get from them. The Warriors should score plenty here against a Lakers defense that is 26th in points allowed, 22nd in FG% defense and 16th in defending the 3. The Lakers have allowed 1.230-points per possession in their last five games and 122.9PPG. The Warriors are 10th in both overall FG% and 3PT%. The three meetings this season between these two teams has ended with 240, 232 and 235 total points. More of the same here.

ASA top play on 9* LA Clippers +1.5 vs Phoenix Suns, 10 PM ET - Here’s the deal. The Suns are locked into the #1 seed in the Western Conference and overall. They had lost two straight prior to facing the Lakers on Tuesday night. They started and played regulars against the Lakers as it gave them a chance to help eliminate L.A. so they don’t face them in the playoffs. But expect a night off for the regulars against the Clippers on Wednesday. The Clippers have been without Paul George for a large portion of the season but he’s back now and they are trying to build continuity before the start of the playoffs. These two teams are very similar defensively and rate two of the better defenses in the NBA. The Suns have much better offensive numbers, but the Clippers have missed Kawhi Leonard for the entire season and George for most of it. The Clippers have been home underdogs just 8 times since the start of the 2020 season and they’ve covered six of those games. This is a tough game to find statistical support for the Clippers ,but the situation couldn’t be better for the home team here. Grab the points!

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 227 Phoenix Suns @ LA Clippers, 10 PM ET - These two teams are founded on defense. The Suns allow the 9th fewest points in the NBA at 107.1PPG, the Clippers give up just 108.8PPG. L.A. ranks 7th in team field goal percentage defense allowing 45.6% and 10th in 3-point percentage defense allowing 34.6%. The Suns are better than the Clippers in FG% defense allowing 44.4% and rank 1st in the NBA defending the 3-point line allowing 33.9%. The Suns are 9th in the league in pace of play but the Clippers are 17th and prefer a slower tempo. Looking at recent games for the Suns we see they’ve played three higher scoring games but they came against Memphis, Nuggets and T’Wolves who are all top 7 of the league in offensive efficiency rating. The Clippers aren’t in that category as they rank near the bottom of the league in OEFF at 25th scoring 1.097-points per possession. The Clippers put up some sizable offensive numbers in recent games but none of those defenses are equal or better than Los Angeles. The one defense they played recently that resembles the Clippers in the 76ers and they managed just 97-points in that game. This will be the 4th meeting of the season for these two teams and all three thus far have stayed Under the total. In fact, the oddsmakers haven’t set a line on the three games higher than 223. All three meetings have totaled 206 or less points and never threatened going Over. The Suns are off a game yesterday, have locked up the #1 seed and aren’t interested in scoring a ton of points here. Easy call on the UNDER!

ASA top play on 10* OVER 228.5 Milwaukee Bucks @ Chicago Bulls, 8:10 PM ET - There is tremendous value in this number and we like OVER here. These two teams met in late March and Vegas set a number of 235.5 total points. On March 4th the Over/Under was set at 240. Both games stayed Under the number, but one game finished with 230 total points and the other was 224. This game has huge playoff seeding implications for both teams as the Bucks could fall as low as 4th in the Eastern Conference, the Bulls could fall as low as 7th and be in the play-in game. You can bet we will see both teams’ full rosters on Tuesday night and we will get max efforts from both teams. This total is set slightly higher than the league average of a NBA game right now of 220.2PPG. In their last five games the Bucks have given up an average of 126.6PPG, while scoring 118 or more in 3 of the five. These two teams can score with the Bucks averaging 115PPG on the season while the Bulls score 111.7PPG. Both are top 12 in shooting and top 5 in 3-point percentage shooting. Neither has put up great defensive numbers on the season as both rank in the bottom half of the league in points allowed per game. This game doesn’t even have to be a shootout to go Over the Total!

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 225 Philadelphia 76ers @ Cleveland Cavaliers, 6:10 PM ET - Philadelphia just put up 144 points against the Charlotte Hornets who are one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA. Philly shot 61% from the field overall, made 21 of 43 3-point attempts (49%) and hit 17 of 21 free throws. Those numbers are insanely high compared to their season averages of 109.2PPG (20th in NBA) 46.3% FG% and 36% 3-point percentage. In other words, they aren’t sustainable here, especially versus a solid Cavs defense. Cleveland is 6th in the NBA in defensive efficiency this season allowing just 1.094-points per possession and 107.4PPG. The Cavs rank 4th in points allowed, own the 6th best FG% defense and 16th 3-point percentage D. The Cavs are also coming off an anomaly game in which they shot 54% as a team, 44% from deep and made 16 of 21 FT’s against the Knicks yesterday. The Cavs are 25th in scoring this season and own the 18th ranked 3-point percentage in the league. Both teams are coming off games yesterday which factors in here. How much will the 76ers play Embiid and Harden on the second day of a back-to-back? On zero days rest this season the 76ers games have averaged 210.4PPG. The Cavs playing without rest have averaged 206.7PPG. When playing without rest the Cavs are 21-10 UNDER their last 31. The Sixers 4-1 Under in their last five games without rest. These two teams met twice in March and both games went Over yet the pace of play was very slow. That will be the case today and neither shoots it well enough to go Over. The UNDER is the play here!

ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets -120 @ Atlanta Hawks, 7:40 PM ET - This game has playoff implications as the Hawks and Nets are trying to avoid the play in situation in the Eastern Conference. Brooklyn is coming off a very disappointing home loss to the Bucks and will be highly motivated here. Both teams are top 7 shooting teams in the NBA with the Nets ranking 4th at 47.4% while the Hawks re 7th at 47%. But the Nets play much better defense that the Hawks holding opponents to 45.3% shooting (9th in NBA) and 34.6% 3-point percentage which is also 9th best. In comparison the Hawks are 26th in FG% defense, 27th in defending the 3-point line. Brooklyn is also the #1 ranked efficiency offense when it comes to fast break points per possession at 1.892. Atlanta is 20th in opponents fast break efficiency, allowing 1.704PPP. Isn’t it strange the Nets are favored here against a Hawks team that has won four straight and 7 of their last ten. The Hawks last four wins aren’t impressive considering they came against a Cavs team that is struggling, the Thunder, Pacers and a shorthanded Warriors team. The Hawks don’t have an answer for KD and Kyrie and we expect those two to shine in this playoff like atmosphere. The Nets have beaten the Hawks twice this season by 8 and 9-points respectively.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 231.5 Portland Trailblazers @ San Antonio Spurs, 8:40 PM ET - San Antonio clearly has plenty to play for as they battle the Lakers for the 10th spot in the West. Portland’s season has been over for quite some time. These teams met on March 23rd with the Spurs winning 133-96 in Portland. The Spurs shot extremely well for the game by making 19 of 44 3-pointers, hitting 49% of their FG attempts overall and making 92% of their free throws. San Antonio has been playing “playoff” like defense of late allowing less than 112PPG in 4 of their last five contests. On the offensive side they scored 133 against this Blazers team but have scored 111 or less in four of their last six games. Portland’s offense has been atrocious this season since the Lillard injury and trade of McCollum. In fact, since the All-Star break this team is last in the league in offensive efficiency averaging just 1.041-points per possession and 104.7PPG. Since the Break the Spurs are also in the bottom half of the league in OEFF. In the last five meetings between these two teams, they have not topped 230 total points and let’s not forget this number is significantly higher than the league average of points scored in an NBA game of 220.2PPG. The bet here is UNDER!

ASA top play on 10* Atlanta Hawks -5 vs. Cleveland Cavaliers, 7:40 PM ET - This is a very big game for both teams as they jockey for better playoff positioning in the Eastern Conference. The Cavs currently hold the 7th spot in the East, the Hawks are 10th but only 3 games separate the two teams. The Cavs are struggling right now with a 1-4 SU record their last five games and injuries have a lot to do with it. Cleveland has been without All-Star Jarrett Allen and now are playing without Evan Mobley. Those two are the Cavs best two frontline players and its showed in recent games as they’ve been outscored by 68-points in the paint the past three games. Atlanta has won 3 straight games and 4 of their last five and are making a strong late season push. The Hawks have won 8 of their last nine home games and one of those wins came against this same Cavs team 124-116. The Cavs had Mobley for that game and he grabbed 10 rebounds and scored 22-points. The Hawks have a +5.8PPG average MOV at home this season, while the Cavs have a negative differential in their last five games of -6PPG. The healthy Hawks get a big home win here.

ASA top play on 10* Minnesota Timberwolves +3 at Toronto Raptors, 7:40 PM ET - Both teams are coming off opposite results with the Raptors coming off a big OT win over the Celtics, while the Timberwolves are off a bad loss in Boston. The Wolves have lost 3 of their last four games but those beats came against the Celtics, Mavericks and Suns. Minnesota is 19-8 SU their last 27 games and a team nobody wants to face in the Western Conference playoffs. Toronto is 9-2 SU their last eleven games which has me wondering why they are such a low home favorite here. The Wolves have the 10th best road margin of victory in the NBA at +.5PPG and they’ve covered 5 of their last six away from home. Minnesota is 16-17 SU off a loss but have covered 8 of their last nine in that situation. Toronto is just 2-6 ATS their last eight as a home favorite and really struggled beating a Celtics team the other night that was without Tatum, Brown, Williams and Horford. Grab the points with Minnesota.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 223 Chicago Bulls @ Washington Wizards, 7:10 PM ET - These aren’t two of the faster paced teams in the NBA and the Wizards rank in the bottom 3rd of the NBA in offensive efficiency, the Bulls rank 10th. Chicago scores 111.6PPG, Washington 108.3PPG. What both teams do have in common is their lack of defense. The Bulls rank 20th in defensive efficiency allowing nearly 1.130-points per possession, the Wiz are worse yet at 25th giving up 1.141PPP. Both have been even worse since the All-Star break when it comes to DEFF. The league average points scored in an NBA game right now is 220 and this number is only slightly higher than that. Chicago is coming off a game last night and they’ve gone Over the total in 9 of their last twelve games in that scheduling situation. The Wizards have gone over the total in 10 of their last fourteen games and 7 straight as a home underdog. We are betting this game will be slightly higher than league average and get to the high 220’s.

ASA top play on 10* San Antonio Spurs -6.5 vs. Houston Rockets, 8:10 PM ET - Obviously, the Spurs have everything to play for right now as they still have a shot at getting into the post season. With just 20 wins the Rockets season is essentially done. The line on this game opened -5.5 points and was immediately bet up by the Sharps. There is still value and we’ll take the road favorite. The Spurs are significantly better offensively than the Rockets who rank 19th in scoring, 22nd in FG%, 21st in 3-point% and 30th in rebounding. The Spurs rank 8th in scoring, 12th in shooting and 17th in 3-point% with the 9th best offensive rebounding average in the league. Defensively the Spurs aren’t great ranking mid-20’s in most key defensive categories but the Rockets are far worse ranking 30th in points allowed and opponents FG%. San Antonio has won 3 straight and 4 of five. Houston has won 2 in a row but both were against Portland. The Rockets are just 1-4 SU their last five home games and they have the 3rd worst +/- at home in the NBA at minus -6.8PPG. The Spurs have drubbed this Rockets team in the two most recent meetings by 30 and 25-points respectively. Lay the points!

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 220 NY Knicks at Detroit Pistons, 3:40 PM ET - We like the spot for an Under here with the Knicks coming off a big road win over Miami and another big game looming with the Bulls. New York is running out of chances to make the playoffs as they sit 5 games behind the Hawks and 6 behind Charlotte. The Knicks have recently played some lower scoring games against Miami, Utah, Washington, and Dallas who are slower paced teams in the NBA more similar to Detroit. Yes, they’ve had a few higher scoring games but that was versus uptempo teams or high efficiency offenses. The Pistons are slightly above league average in pace of play but rank 28th in offensive efficiency scoring 1 point per every 105.4 possessions per game. The Pistons have been a money-making machine since the trade deadline and that has a lot to do with them not dealing Jerami Grant. Grant has been the Pistons leading scorer but was injured last game and won’t play here. Detroit has scored 109 or less points in 6 of their last nine games and only managed 97-points last game when Grant was hurt just a few minutes into the contest. Detroit is on a 6-1 Under streak at home as a dog, the Knicks are 4-0 their last four as a road favorite. The two meetings this season have resulted in 196 and 179 total points. Bet Under!

ASA top play on 10* San Antonio Spurs +5 vs. New Orleans Pelicans, 5 PM ET - This is a quick turnaround revenge game for the Spurs who were blown out by the Pelicans on March 18th, 91-124. Coach Popp was ejected in the second quarter after the Spurs scored just 10-points in the 1st. This game has huge playoff implications as both are fighting to stay in the top 10 in the West. After the loss to the Pels the Spurs bounced back with a win over the Warriors then blew out the Blazers. The Pelicans are off a big home win over the Bulls but are 1-3 SU their last four at home. New Orleans is 17-20 SU at home and below average in +/- of +1.1PPG. San Antonio is 15-21 SU on the road but they are 15th in the league in average MOV at +0.2PPG. The Spurs have covered 6 straight in New Orleans and are 7-1 ATS the last eight meetings overall. Grab the points.

ASA top play on 10* Utah Jazz -3.5 over Charlotte Hornets, 7 PM ET - We love to back elite NBA teams when they are off embarrassing losses which is the case here for Utah. The Jazz are coming off a humbling 97-125 loss against the Celtics on Wednesday night and should rebound here with a big effort. After facing the #1 ranked defense in the NBA the Jazz step down here to face a Charlotte team that is 23rd in the league in defensive efficiency allowing 1.135-points per possession. Utah is one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the NBA and they couldn’t buy a basket from deep against the Celtics but should have success here versus a Hornets D that allows 35.9% which is 21st in the league. Utah ranks top 7 in the NBA in points scored, FG% offense, 3-PT% and rebounding. They are also top 11 defensively in those same categories. While the Hornets are top 13 in most key offensive categories, they rank 28th in points allowed 19th in FG% D, 21st in 3-PT% and 29th in defensive rebounding. Charlotte has won 5 of their last six games but are coming off a loss to the Knicks. Charlotte doesn’t possess a great home court advantage which is why they are 19-18 SU at home with a below average +/- of +0.4PPG. We like the bounce back factor with the Jazz in this one.

ASA top play on 10* Utah Jazz +5.5 over Boston Celtics, 7:40 PM ET - This line is clearly higher than it should be because of the Celtics current hot streak. That makes it a great opportunity to sell high and buy low with Utah. We must acknowledge Boston’s 20-3 SU run and won’t pretend that it doesn’t exist, but this is a solid spot to fade them. Utah doesn’t have a great overall road record at 19-16 SU but they do own the 5th best average margin of victory at +3.3PPG. Boston has a 24-12 SU home record with a differential of +5.5PPG. These two teams own two of the best defenses in the NBA with the Jazz top 10 in points allowed FG% D and 3-point % D and rank #1 in rebounding. The Celtics are 1st in points allowed 1st in FG% D and 2nd in 3-point% but 14th in rebounding. Utah holds a huge advantage offensively with a unit that ranks top 6 in scoring, FG%, 3PT% and rebounding. In comparison the Celtics rank 16th or worse in the three main offensive categories and 5th in offensive rebounding. Utah is a solid 15-11 SU when coming off a loss, while the C’s are 8-14-1 ATS when off a win. In a few of their recent road games the Jazz have been favored over the Nets, Knicks and Mavericks and now they are getting an inflated number here. Will you be surprised in the Jazz win this outright? I won’t!

ASA top play on 10* Milwaukee Bucks -5.5 versus Chicago Bulls, 8:10 PM ET - We like the scenario here with the Bulls coming off a game last night and the Bucks coming off a horrible loss a few nights ago in Minnesota. There is value in this number. Earlier this month these two teams squared off in Chicago and the oddsmaker set a spread of Bucks -5.5-points. Now the Bucks are laying 6-points at home! Chicago has not faired well against the leagues elite teams and are currently 0-5 ATS their last five versus teams with a winning percentage greater than .600. On the season the Bulls are 4-18 SU against the top 10 teams in the league. The Bucks have been terrible as a home favorite this season, but they have covered 5 of their last six as a chalk. The Bucks have a +/- of 4.6PPG, the Bulls have a negative road differential of -2.9PPG. Given the circumstances and the fact the Bucks just laid a similar number in Chicago (and won by 6-points) we like them here by double-digits.

ASA top play on 10* Charlotte Hornets -5.5 over New Orleans Pelicans, 7PM ET - The Hornets have been a “hot or cold” team all season long and right now they are currently “hot” with 4 straight wins and covers. Included in this four game stretch is a 142-120 win over the Pelicans as a -3.5-point favorite in New Orleans. The Pels did play without McCollum and Ingram in that game and will again be without Ingram their leading scorer here. New Orleans is coming off a road win yesterday in Atlanta and also playing their 3rd game in a four-day span. Last night saw their starters all get extended minutes and the bench is short the way it is. When playing without rest this season the Pels are 2-10 SU with an average loss margin of -8PPG. The Pelicans aren’t great off a win either with a 6-11 SU road record in that situation. The Hornets last four wins have all come by double digits and they own the 5th best average point differential in the NBA over the last five games. Charlotte has covered 6 straight as a favorite and they get a big 10+ point win in this one.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 222.5 Utah Jazz at New York Knicks, 7:40 PM ET - We expect a low possession, low scoring defensive batter today in the Garden when the Jazz and Knicks square off. The Knicks rank 26th out of 30 NBA teams when it comes to pace of play with 96.1 possessions per game. Utah is slightly faster at 97.6 which ranks 20th in the league. When playing away from home the Jazz are slower yet at 97 possessions per game. Both of these teams excel on the defensive end of the court as each rank in the top 10 when it comes to points allowed per possession or defensive efficiency. The Jazz may be the most efficient offense in the NBA but they’ll be without Mike Conley here and Donovan Mitchell is less than 100%. The Knicks rank 23rd in OEFF at 1.098PPP. Our model is projecting both teams to score less than 110 points. The Jazz have stayed Under in 4 straight road games, Knicks Under in four straight when playing a team with a winning record. The Under is now 4-0 the last four times these two teams have met.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 225.5 Dallas Mavericks at Charlotte Hornets, 7 PM ET - Given the circumstances we must play Under in this one. The Mavs are off a game last night in Philadelphia and they’ve been a strong Under team when playing without rest with a 2-8 mark. Those ten games have averaged 206.5PPG. Charlotte has been off for two days and in that scenario they are 4-6 Under with those games averaging 223.5PPG. On the season the Mavs have the 6th best defensive efficiency ratings in the league and they are the slowest paced team in the NBA. Dallas is also below average in offensive efficiency ranking 18th and 26th in scoring at 106.6PPG. Charlotte for the season is the 3rd fastest paced team in the NBA at 100.3 possessions per game. Since the All-Star break though they have slowed to 98.7 possessions per game which is 19th slowest. Charlotte is one of the highest scoring teams in the NBA but in recent games against similar defenses to the Mavs they’ve struggled to score with 101 vs. Boston, 119 vs. Cleveland and 106 against the Bucks. We don’t see these teams getting into the 220’s.

ASA top play on 10* Philadelphia 76ers -2.5 vs Dallas Mavericks, 7:10 PM ET - Yes, we know just how hot the Mavericks have been, but we like the situation to fade them here. Dallas is coming off a huge last second win over Brooklyn on Wednesday night and we expect a letdown here. Philly is coming off a win in Cleveland, but they didn’t play well so expect a rebound here back at home. The Mavs were recently a +6.5-point underdog at Boston which means this line is off by a few points. Philadelphia was a home favorite of -3.5-points two games ago at home against Denver who rates higher than the Mavs in our power index. The Mavs don’t have anyone that can match up with Joel Embiid who is scoring nearly 30PPG with 11.4 rebounds per game this season. This is a great opportunity to back a low home favorite that is underpriced given the circumstances.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 237.5 Atlanta Hawks @ Charlotte Hornets, 7PM ET - Very rarely will you find us on an Over when the number in nearly 240 points but today we break the rules. Both of these two teams are getting into the 120’s tonight with a pair of high powered offenses and bad defenses. The Hornets have put up 121 or more points in 6 of their last nine games and are coming off a 142 outburst and 134 in consecutive games. They’ve also given up more than 120 in 4 of their last eight games. Atlanta has had back to back games with 131 and 122 points and have scored 122 or more in 4 of their last nine. Charlotte gives up nearly 115PPG on the season which is 28th in the NBA. Atlanta allows 112PPG which ranks 21st. The Hawks have been one of the most efficient offenses all season long ranking 2nd behind only Utah. Since the All Star break the Hornets have produced the 2nd best offensive efficiency numbers at 1.216-points per possession. Charlotte will force the tempo here at home and the Hawks will efficiently score. It results in an easy OVER.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 217.5 Detroit Pistons @ Miami Heat, 7:40 PM ET - The Heat are one of the best defensive teams in the NBA allowing 104.8PPG which is the 4th lowest number in the league. They have the 4th best overall FG% defense, 6th in defending the 3-point line and 1st in rebounding. Miami should be able to contain a Pistons offense that 29th in scoring, FG%, 3PT% and 27th in rebounding. Offensively the Heat rank 17th in the league in scoring at 109.4PPG. The Pistons are 18th in defensive efficiency on the season and have been better on that end of the floor recently by allowing 106 or less points in 3 of their last six games. What’s most important here will be the pace of play. The Heat are the 2nd slowest paced team in the NBA on the season while the Pistons have been the 2nd slowest team since the All-Star break. Two of the three meetings between these two teams have been in the 190’s. This game won’t be that low but it will stay Under 216.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 224.5 Washington Wizards vs. Golden State Warriors, 10:10 PM ET - This is a marginal Over-Under based on the overall NBA season averages and we expect both teams to get to 115 or more. The Warriors are going to put up points in this game against a Wizards defense that has allowed 115 or more points in five straight games. Most alarming is the 127 they just allowed to a Portland offense that has REALLY struggled scoring 95 or less points in 5 of their last seven games. The Warriors are starting to find their offensive groove again and are coming off a 122-point showing against a solid Bucks defense last time out. Since the All-Star Break the Warriors are averaging 116.3PPG and 1.182-points per possession which is 9th best in the NBA. Coincidentally, the Wizards have the 5th best offensive efficiency average since the Break while scoring over 117PPG. Golden State is going to feast on this defense and the Wiz will put up their fare share of points as well. The bet here is OVER!

ASA top play on 10* Dallas Mavericks +7.5 over Boston Celtics, 3:30 PM ET - The Celtics have been playing lights out and garnering a ton of media attention which has driven this line higher than it should be. If I ask you which of these teams has a better overall record you would be quick to tell me Boston. If I were to say who has won 12 of their last fifteen you would probably reply Boston. In reality the team I’m talking about is Dallas. The Mavs have flown under the radar for most of the season and are the bet in this situation. Dallas owns the 8th best average point differential in the NBA at +3.1PPG. Boston is slightly better at +5.7PPG. Boston owns a slightly better overall offensive efficiency rating but both are near equal defensively ranking 3rd (Boston) and 5th (Dallas). Boston has the 5th best home average margin of victory in the league at +5.7PPG but Dallas holds the 7th best road differential at +1.7PPG. Dallas has been an underdog of more than +7.5 points just three times this season and they are perfect against the spread in those games or 3-0 ATS. Boston hasn’t faired well as a bigger favorite this season with a 7-11 ATS mark when laying -7.5 or more points. Dallas has covered 9 of the last 12 meetings in Beantown. Grab the points.

ASA top play on 10* Chicago Bulls -3 over Cleveland Cavaliers - The Cavs are coming off a big game last night in Miami and have a tough matchup here against a highly motivated Bulls team that is 1-5 SU their last six games. The lack of rest for the Cavaliers is magnified in this game as they are missing two of their top 6 players with LeVert and Allen sidelined. With rest advantage the Bulls are 12-5 SU (10-7 ATS) +3.4PPG in those 17 contests. The home team has won 4 straight in this rivalry, both games this season. The Bulls are 24-10 SU this season at home with a +/- of 4.4PPG. Chicago will get starting center Vucevik back here and likely LaVine. Chicago has the 5th best offensive efficiency numbers in the league this season, the Cavs rank 19th. Given the scheduling circumstances we like the Bulls to get a 8 or more point win here.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 228.5 Charlotte Hornets @ New Orleans Pelicans, 8:10 PM ET - The Pelicans will be shorthanded on Friday night as Ingram and McCollum are both out of this contest. That will make scoring incredibly hard for the Pelicans as those two combine for 45PPG and we don’t see that production coming from other players that easily. The Hornets defense has been bad all season long, allowing 115PPG, but without Ingram and McCollum on the floor they won’t look as bad as usual. New Orleans is allowing 109PPG which ranks them 14th in the NBA but since the All-Star break, they rank 2nd best in the league in defensive efficiency allowing just 1.069-points per possession. On the season the Hornets are the 3rd fastest paced team in the league but since the break they have slowed considerably to rank 18th. Charlotte is 5-0 Under when coming off a loss, Pelicans Under in 9 of their last twelve when off a loss.