Sports Picks & Predictions

ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors -1.5 vs. Denver Nuggets, 10:10 PM ET - At first glance, why are the Warriors favored in this game? This number is a drastic swing from the Nuggets recently being an 8-point home favorite over the Warriors, but it’s warranted given these circumstances. Denver is coming off a game last night in Sacramento, playing their 3rd day and 4th in five days. The Nuggets are 5-7 on the season when playing without rest with a negative differential. Golden State just lost here in Denver 3 days ago, but they opted to sit all of their starters and were still competitive, losing by 7-points. The Warriors had lost 5 straight games but got a much-needed win against the Clippers on Tuesday. These two teams have near identical offensive numbers, but defensively the Warriors are much better. Golden State ranks top 5 defensively in points allowed FG% D, 3PT% D and rebounding. Golden State is playing with revenge and rested and the oddsmakers clearly are baiting you into backing Denver. We won’t bite!

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 223 Orlando Magic @ New Orleans Pelicans, 8:10 PM ET - We are grabbing the extra value with the Under in this game as our model is predicting a lower possession and scoring game. We are weighing both teams' current play more than their regular season numbers in this handicap which projects 216 total points being scored. Since the All-Star break these two teams rank 1st and 2nd in overall defensive efficiency allowing less than 1.066-points per possession. Those numbers are significantly better than their overall averages for the season as they rank 19th and 20th respectively. Granted, the Pels have been much more efficient offensively since acquiring CJ McCollum, but the Magic hold the 2nd worst offensive efficiency ratings since the break at 1.042PPP. Both teams are coming off a game last night which factors in here as they Magic games have averaged less than 210 total points per game when Orlando isn’t rested. Orlando is 8-3 Under their last eleven in this scheduling situation. When New Orleans is playing the second night of a back-to-back those games have averaged 217.2PPG. The last 12 times the Pelicans have been a home favorite they stayed Under the number in nine of those games. With both team’s 20th or worse in scoring we can’t see this game getting into the 220’s.

ASA top play on 10* Atlanta Hawks +5.5 over Milwaukee Bucks, 7:30 PM ET - We will start with the obvious here and the fact the Bucks have been horrendous at home as a favorite this season with a 11-20 ATS record and a +/- of +5.3PPG in those games. Milwaukee is just 4-3 SU their last 7 at home and just can't get untracked at home. Scheduling clearly favors the Hawks with the Bucks coming off a game Tuesday night in OKC and they are just 3-8 ATS this season when playing without rest. Milwaukee is also playing their 3rd game in 4 nights and have a much bigger game on deck at Golden State. We like the Hawks who are rested and coming off an embarrassing loss to Detroit on Monday night as an 8-point favorite. Atlanta is 8th in offensive efficiency since the All-Star break, 17th in DEFF 1.150PPP which is drastically better than their season average of 27th allowing 1.146-points per possession. Since the break the Hawks have a +3.3 PPG differential. Atlanta is a matchup problem for the Bucks as they’ve beaten them twice this season already. Hawks 13-5 ATS their last eighteen meetings in Milwaukee

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 220.5 Phoenix Suns @ Orlando Magic, 7:10 PM ET - The Suns are missing several key components here with Johnson, Booker and Paul all out. Those three players account for over 53PPG for the Suns. Orlando has had difficulty scoring all season long with the 2nd worst overall offensive efficiency in the NBA at .993-points per possession. Scoring will be even more difficult for the Magic here going up against a Suns defense that is 3rd in the NBA in defensive efficiency. Not to mention, the Suns are coming off an embarrassing defensive showing against the Bucks last time out in which they allowed 132-points. Despite a 16-49 SU record the Magic have the 20th ranked DEFF numbers on the year and since the All-Star break they are 2nd in defensive efficiency at 1.070PPP. The Suns road games have averaged 219.5 total points per game, the Magic home games 215.8PPG. The Suns have stayed Under the Total in 15 of their last twenty-one games when coming off a loss. The Magic are on a 4-1 Under streak overall. The bet here is UNDER.

ASA top play on 10* Detroit Pistons +7.5 over Atlanta Hawks, 7:10 PM ET - The Pistons have looked like a completely different team since the trade deadline which has led to a 5-2 SU record in their last seven games as they gun for their 3rd straight win tonight. The Pistons wins have been solid too as they’ve beaten the Raptors, Hornets, Cavs and Celtics in that stretch. Detroit continues to be under-valued by the oddsmakers and it shows in their ATS streak which now stands at 7 covers in a row. The Hawks are making a playoff push themselves and have also won 5 of their last seven and two in a row but this isn’t a great spot for them, off a win and facing the Bucks next. In their last five games the Pistons have shown a dramatic improvement in both offensive and defensive efficiency numbers and they have an average +/- of -0.8PPG. The Hawks average +/- in their last five games is +4.6PPG which clearly doesn’t get a cover in this match up. Atlanta is 12-19 SU on the road this season with an average MOV of minus -2.2PPG. The Hawks may get a win here but it’s going to be close. Grab the dog and points.

ASA top play on 10* LA CLIPPERS -4.5 over NY Knicks, 10 PM ET - Remember when the Knicks started the season off with one of the best offenses in the NBA? Yeah, that was through the first few weeks of the season and was short lived. New York is the 27th lowest scoring team in the league, 27th in FG% at 43.4% and 16th in 3-point%. The Knicks are 25th in overall offensive efficiency at 1.089-points per possession and have a net differential on the road of minus -2.8PPG. The Knicks have lost 7 straight games and have a 3-13 SU record their last sixteen games. The Clippers are gaining traction in the West with 5 straight wins and 7 of their last eight overall. At home the Clippers have been especially tough with a 7-1 SU record their last eight and the lone loss came against the defending Champions, Milwaukee Bucks. Since the All-Star break the Clippers have the 3rd best overall defensive efficiency rating and a +/- of +9.5PPG. We like the Clippers to get a double-digit win in this one.

ASA top play on 10* Sacramento Kings +7.5 over Dallas Mavericks, 5:10 PM ET - This is a great opportunity to sell the Mavericks when their stocks are high and buy the Kings when they are low. The Mavs enter this game having won 9 of their last eleven games which has driven this number higher than it should be. Not to mention, the Mavericks are coming off a huge 3-game winning stretch against the Warriors (twice) and the Lakers. The last loss on the Mavs schedule was against the Utah Jazz who coincidentally is next on their schedule. You can’t blame Dallas for looking ahead to that game as the Jazz currently sit 4th in the West, one spot ahead of Dallas who is 5th. The Kings have alternated wins in their last four games and are coming off a solid road win in San Antonio last time out. It's a well-known fact the Kings aren’t good defensively but can the Mavs 25th ranked scoring offense take advantage and cover a number as high as this? When laying more than 5-points this season the Mavericks are 7-11 ATS which ties into their record as a home favorite the past two seasons of 10-17 ATS. Dallas is 21-11 SU at home on the year with an average MOV of +5.2PPG which won’t get it done here. The Kings have covered 7 of the last nine meetings in Dallas and 22 of the last thirty-one meetings overall. Given the situation and the price we like the Kings here.

ASA top play on 10* Chicago Bulls +5 over Milwaukee Bucks, 7:30 PM ET - This is a big game in the Eastern Conference as the Bulls currently sit 3rd overall at 39-24, the Bucks rank 4th at 38-25. The Bulls are clearly the more desperate team here having lost 3 straight games. Chicago had won 6 straight games prior to that and the three losses came to Memphis, Miami and Atlanta so it’s not like they were lower level teams. The value in the line clearly sides with the Bulls considering they were just +5 AT Miami the other day and even +2.5 at home against a red-hot Memphis team who is 26-7 their last 33 games. Milwaukee is coming off a big win at home against the Heat and may let down here. The Bucks were down in the 4th quarter of that game and rallied from behind for the last second win. The Bucks defense has slipped this season ranking 16th in points allowed per game and 12th in 3-point% defense. The Bulls can take advantage with the 8th highest scoring offense in the league and the best 3-point shooting percentage in the NBA. The Bulls are 14-9 ATS off a loss this season with a +2.4PPG differential. Milwaukee is 3-10 ATS their last 13 when coming off a win.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 221.5 Miami Heat @ Brooklyn Nets, 7:30 PM ET - The Heat are coming off a disappointing 119-120 loss last night in Milwaukee which factors into tonight’s wager which we’ll get to shortly. The Heat have now scored 110 or more points in 9 of their last eleven games and have played Over the Total in 11 of their last sixteen road games. The Heat are known for their defense which is 6th best in the league in terms of defensive efficiency allowing just 1.083-points per possession. But the Heat struggle on the defensive end of the court when playing without rest as they have gone Over in 39 of their last 56 games when playing the 2nd night of a back-to-back. This season the Heat are 9-1 Over without rest and those games have averaged 225.5PPG. You would think with Durant and Irving missing most of their games this season the Nets would have struggled offensively but they’re better than you think. Brooklyn is 11th in scoring, 10th in overall FG% at 46.5% and 15th in offensive efficiency. There is a good chance Kevin Durant is back tonight which will give the Nets offense an immediate boost. Brooklyn isn’t known for their defense either as they give up 111.6PPG which ranks 20th in the NBA. These two teams met in early February and produced 226 total points. Bet OVER here.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 226 Miami Heat @ Milwaukee Bucks, 8:10 PM ET - HUGE game in the Eastern Conference with Miami Heat 1st at 41-21 while the Bucks are 4th at 37-25. The Bucks hold an advantage offensively with the 4th most efficient offense in the NBA at 1.139-points per possession compared to the Heat’s 1.131PPP which ranks 7th. The Heat are better defensively with the 6th best DEFF numbers allowing 1.081PPP versus the Bucks who rank 13th allowing 1.103PPP. We see this game playing out much like a Playoff game with defensive energy at a very high level. In the first meeting of the season the Heat exploded for 137 points and that game went Over the number. The last two meetings this season have resulted in 226 and 217 Total points and the most recent clash had an O/U set of 218 and now we have a number nearly 10-points higher here. The Bucks have played a stretch of games against some of the league’s highest scoring or fastest paced teams in the NBA and it’s resulted in some very high Totals which has forced the oddsmakers to adjust this number. Miami is the 2nd slowest paced team in the NBA and will want to keep this a low scoring affair much like they just did to a Bulls team the other night. Our math model is projecting 218 total points and we couldn’t agree more with it.

ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors pick’em over Minnesota Timberwolves, 8:10 PM ET - Much like our win last night on the Bucks, the Warriors fall into a similar situation here against the Wolves. Golden State is off a horrible loss the other night (we had them), when they gave up a 19-point lead in the 4th quarter and lost to the Mavs. The Warriors have a day of rest off that terrible loss while the Wolves are coming off a game last night in Cleveland. So not only is the 2nd night of a back-to-back but their 4th game in six days. That’s significant considering the Wolves are 3-7 SU this season when playing without rest with an average loss margin of -7PPG and they’ve failed to cover 5-straight. These two teams have some similar numbers offensively, but the Warriors are far superior on the season defensively ranking 1st in defensive efficiency while the Wolves rank 17th. Golden State has the 8th best average margin of victory on the road this season and a 17-11 SU record. Expect a bounce back in this one.

ASA top play on 10* Milwaukee Bucks -10.5 over Charlotte Hornets, 8:10 PM ET - This is a solid spot to back an elite team like the Bucks off a home loss, playing at home and play against a Hornets team off an OT road game yesterday. Last time out the Bucks lost a big game at home to the Nets as a -9.5-point favorite. Milwaukee is 10-6 SU off a loss, playing at home this year, 8-8 ATS. Going back to 2018 there is no team better in the NBA when coming off a loss that the Bucks who have a 70-34 SU record. In general, the Bucks are 123-36 SU at home their last 159 at home with a +10PPG average. The Hornets played a fast-paced over-time game yesterday in Detroit and haven’t fared well in recent years when playing without rest with a 16-37 SU record. Lastly, these two teams met they played a back-to-back set of games in Charlotte with the Hornets winning both which will provide a little extra incentive for Milwaukee here. The big difference between these two teams is defense. The Bucks have been one of the best defensive units in the NBA in recent years and currently rank 13th in defensive efficiency. The Hornets are 22nd in DEFF overall, 24th on the road and are 28th in points allowed per game which makes it that much easier for a double-digit favorite to cover a big number.

ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors -4 over Dallas Mavericks, 7:40 PM ET - We like the Warriors in their first game after the All-Star break for several reasons and we feel this team is poised to make a serious run at the top spot in the West. Golden State shot 51% as a team and held the Blazers to just 39% in their 132-95 blowout win the other night. Dallas is off a loss at Utah as a +6.5-point underdog on Friday night and we don’t feel the adjustment by the oddsmakers is warranted here. These two teams are somewhat similar defensively with the Warriors holding a slight edge but offensively it’s close. Golden State is 10th in points per game, 6th in FG% and 6th in 3-point percentage. Dallas on the other hand is 20th or worse in those same categories. Golden State has the best home court differential in the NBA this season at +11.8PPG and they beat the Mavs here handily earlier this season 130-92. Golden State lost their most recent home game so expect a focused effort in this one and a double-digit win.

ASA top play on 10* Denver Nuggets -8.5 over Sacramento Kings, 9:10 PM ET - These same two teams just met in Sacramento the other night with the Nuggets winning by 18-points. You would think that makes this a revenge spot but we can’t ignore the value in the number and will side with Denver. The Nuggets were just a 4-point road favorite at Sacramento and are now laying just a few more points at home. Denver was covering this game the entire 4th quarter and had a remarkable shooting night. The Nuggets shot 56% from the field and 43% from beyond the arc, which is abnormally high, but what’s to say they can’t repeat that performance? Sacramento is 29th in scoring defense allowing 115.1PPG, 29th in overall field goal percentage defense and 26th in defending the 3-point line. That’s a bad matchup against a Nuggets team that is 13th in scoring, 3rd in FG% and 11th in 3-point percentage. Denver has the 10th best average margin of victory at home at +4.9PPG. Sacramento has the 27th worst road differential in the NBA at minus -8.5PPG. Bet the value, bet Denver.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 223 San Antonio Spurs @ Washington Wizards, 7:10 PM ET - The Spurs are one of the fastest paced teams in the NBA and 9th in the league in scoring at just under 112PPG. They score the 7th most points on the fast break which is a big reason why they are the 9th best shooting team in the NBA at 46.6%. Washington doesn’t necessarily play fast, ranking 22nd in pace but in their last five games they have the 11th best offensive efficiency numbers and are shooting over 48% as a team in that same stretch of games. Neither team is known for their defense as both rank 18th or worse in defensive efficiency allowing 1.114 or more points per possession. Both teams are fresh off the break and will have fresh legs for a faster paced game (Overs 5-2 last night). The Over is 7-1 the last eight meetings between these two teams.

ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors -9 over Portland Trailblazers, 10 PM ET - The Warriors limped into the All-Star break with losses in 4 of five games, including their most recent 2 games against the Clippers and Nuggets. Portland on the other hand won 4 straight games with quality wins over the Lakers, Bucks and Memphis. The Blazers though were dealt another injury blow as starting center Nurkic (scored 32-points last game) is out for this game which leaves a short-handed Blazer team even more depleted. Portland used to be fantastic at home with a 76-44 SU home record between 2018-2021 but are just 16-16 SU this season with a negative differential of minus -0.8PPG. Golden State struggles can be directly attributed to some poor shooting by Steph Curry who found his stroke in the All-Star game, scoring 50-points. We expect that momentum to carry over here. The Warriors are 4-0 this year when playing on 4 or more days rest with a +12PPG differential. They have beaten the Blazers by double-digits twice already so a third doesn’t seem to be asking too much. Lay the points.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 226 Miami Heat @ Charlotte Hornets, 7:10 PM ET - Let’s start with the baseline O/U numbers in the NBA. The league average currently in the NBA is 218.2PPG but in the last three weeks games have trended up to 221PPG. The Over is 84-66 in the last three weeks of the NBA season. The Hornets games have finished with the highest average points per game this season at 228.4PPG. The Heat are the best Over team this season with nearly 63% of their games going Over the number. The Hornets play at a break-neck speed with the fastest paced offense in the NBA at 100.8 possessions per game. They also rank 11th in offensive efficiency in large part because they average 16.1PPG via the fast break which is 2nd in the league. What Charlotte doesn’t do well is defend with the 24th ranked defensive efficiency. They also rank 22nd in 3-point percentage defense which doesn’t bode well versus the Heat who are 3rd in the NBA in 3-point percentage offense at 37.5%. The Heat are 7th in offensive efficiency this season and are a top ranked DEFF team but they do have one weakness defensively. Miami is ‘average’ in defending the 3-point line and Charlotte is 9th in 3-point shooting. Miami is also 14th or near average in the NBA is points allowed off the break. These two recently stayed Under the total with 190 points but both teams had poor shooting nights and the Hornets managed just 8-points in the 3rd quarter. Expect a revert back to normal for both teams and a higher scoring game.

ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors -5.5 over Denver Nuggets, 10 PM ET - We have an opportunity to buy low with the Warriors here who have lost 3 of their last four games overall, including a most recent loss against the Clippers. That ties into this wager as the Warriors are 12-3 SU off a loss, 8-1 SU at home off a beat. The Warriors are 26-5 SU at home and have the best home court point differential in the league at +12.2PPG. Golden State is coming off a very poor defensive showing against the Clippers and will play with a chip on their shoulder here. The Warriors have #1 ranked defensive efficiency numbers at home this season allowing just 1.019-points per possession. They also have the 8th best offensive efficiency at home The Nuggets will have a size advantage with Jokic but the Nuggets concern comes on the defensive end of the court where they rank 13th in defensive efficiency and 22nd in opponents FG%. The Nuggets are 16-15 SU on the road this season with a negative differential of -0.2PPG. The Nuggets have lost 3 of their last four road games against similar opponents to the Warriors. Golden State has covered 6 of the last seven meetings between these two teams at home and we like them to get a double-digit win in this one.

ASA top play on 10* Philadelphia 76ers +3.5 over Boston Celtics, 7:30 PM ET - This is a bad line and a clear over-reaction to the Celtics current hot streak so we will grab the value and play on Philadelphia. Boston is 10-1 SU their last eleven games and gaining ground in the Eastern Conference. At closer look though the current streak might be a little overrated. The best wins came at home over a depleted Hawks and Heat team and the Denver Nuggets. The road wins the Celtics had in that stretch came against a Nets team without Durant, Harden and Irving and versus Orlando, Detroit, New Orleans and Washington. Those four teams have a combined record of 76-155 SU. The 76ers have two straight wins including a solid win over the Cleveland Cavaliers. Philly was dealing with distracting issues during the trade deadline and now are rid of Ben Simmons in the deal for James Harden who is not expected to play tonight. Granted, the 76ers are without Seth Curry now but they were just favored by 1.5-points at home against the Suns and are now a home dog to Boston? That doesn’t add up according to our model. Philly has covered 7 straight in the series and 4 in a row at home. Embiid and company get it done tonight.

ASA top play on 10* San Antonio Spurs +3.5 over Chicago Bulls, 8:10 PM ET - We like the Spurs and the points over the short-handed Bulls are expected to be without Zach LaVine here. The Bulls are 21-8 SU at home, yet have the worst average Margin of Victory at home of all the teams that have 20 or more home wins this season. Chicago wins at home by +4.8PPG which is 9th in the NBA. A big reason why the Bulls don’t win by large margins is their lack of defense at home. Chicago ranks 21st in defensive efficiency at home allowing 1.119-points per possession. The Bulls have the best home efficiency numbers in the league at home but will be without one of their main offensive weapons in LaVine. San Antonio is 11-17 SU on the road this season but their average loss margin is -0.4PPG. The Spurs have the 7th best road defensive efficiency numbers in the NBA allowing 1.088PPP. The Spurs have two straight wins as road dogs and we expect them to keep this game close.

ASA top play on 10* Minnesota Timberwolves -6.5 over Indiana Pacers, 3:10 PM ET - Let’s consider this basic analysis first. Before the trade deadline the Pacers were just a +1.5 home underdog to the Chicago Bulls. They then traded away their two leading scorers in Sabonis and LeVert along with key role player Craig and were +6.5 points at home to the Cavs in the first game after the trade. Yes, they added talented Haliburton and Hield but clearly the oddsmakers feel they will regress in the short-term. The Wolves are off back-to-back losses but had won 5 straight games prior to that with a pair of impressive double-digit wins over the Jazz and Nuggets. The Pacers are on an 0-5 ATS streak while the Wolves are 5-1 ATS their last six games coming off a double-digit loss. As a favorite the Wolves have an average +/- of +9PPG and they have covered 11 of fifteen on the road against sub .500 teams. Don’t be scared off by the number, bet Minnesota.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 215.5 LA Clippers @ Dallas Mavericks, 8:40 PM ET - These two teams just met the other night with the Mavericks winning 112-105 for 217 Total points. Both teams shot well above their season averages with Luke Doncic of the Mavs having a big night with 51-points on 17 of 26 shooting. Dallas made 49% of their FG attempts (season average is 45.4% 19th in NBA) while the Clippers hit 48% (Clippers 22nd in NBA at 45.4%). The pace of play obviously favored the Under which would have cashed had they not both shot it so well. The Mavericks are the 28th slowest paced team in the NBA, the Clippers are 15th. Both teams are exceptional at defending the 3-point line with the Mavs holding the 5th best 3PT% D, the Clippers are 6th. The Clippers have the 9th best defensive efficiency rating in the NBA allowing 1.093-points per possession, the Mavericks are better yet ranking 5th at 1.072PPP. The Over is 2-1 this season between these two teams but they had an abnormally hot shooting night on Thursday and barely went Over the number, played on OT game to go Over and then scored 188 in the first meeting of the season. We like UNDER in this one.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 226.5 Charlotte Hornets at Detroit Pistons, 7:10 PM ET - We know two constants in this matchup and that is pace and poor defense. Both teams are going to play fast which means plenty of possessions to get an Over here. Charlotte is the 2nd fastest paced team in the NBA at 100.4 possessions per game, Detroit is 12th at 98.8. Defense, or lack of defense is the other trait both teams share. The Hornets rank 24th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.130-points per possession, the Pistons rank 26th allowing 1.132PPP. We are getting tremendous value here with Charlotte’s recent offense struggles but the main reason they haven’t scored is the defenses they’ve faced. In 6 of their last seven games they’ve faced a team with a top 13 defensive efficiency rating. It will become much easier to score here against this Pistons D that is giving up 112.3PPG. Charlotte is the 9th best 3-point shooting team in the NBA, Detroit is 30th in defending the 3. We get a marginal Total set by the oddsmakers and the value clearly lies with the OVER!

ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns -3 over Milwaukee Bucks, 10 PM ET - The Suns are 44-10 SU on the season and clearly playing at another level. Milwaukee is turning the corner and moved to 2nd place in the Eastern Conference. We don’t use “revenge” often in the NBA but that’s the case tonight as the Suns will be at another level emotionally tonight after losing to the Bucks in the Finals last year. The Bucks do have a positive road differential of +3.6PPG on the season but the Suns are 22-5 SU at home this season with the second-best margin of victory at +8.3PPG. Both teams are highly rated in terms of offense, but the difference tonight will be the Suns defense that ranks 4th best in the league in efficiency compared to the Bucks who rank 15th in points allowed per game this season. The energy and home crowd will carry the Suns to a double-digit win here.

ASA top play on 10* Chicago Bulls Money Line -120 over Charlotte Hornets, 7:40 PM ET - LaMelo Ball has made a big splash in the NBA this season and he’s been rewarded with an All-Star appearance as an alternate. He is dynamic offensively, but arguably the worst defender in the NBA. Charlotte will need to make a correction on the defensive end of the court to really ascend to the next level. The Hornets rank 28th in points allowed per game allowing over 114PPG, allow opponents to make 46.3% of their field goal attempts (20th) and 35.9% of their 3-point attempts (23rd). The Bulls aren’t great defensively, but they are better than the Hornets and rate slightly stronger offensively. Chicago is 5th in offensive efficiency (Hornets (12th) rank 8th in scoring, 1st in FG% and 3rd in 3-point shooting percentage. Charlotte has lost 5 straight game and we don’t see them correcting here against the Bulls who are also off two straight losses to the Suns and 76ers. The Bulls are 22-12 ATS as a favorite and we trust their Big 3 of LaVine, DeRozan and Vucevic much more than the Hornets lineup, especially without Hayward. In the last meeting the Bulls led by as many as 23-points and eventually won by 14. We expect similar results tonight.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 228.5 Houston Rockets @ New Orleans Pelicans, 8:10 PM ET - These two teams just met the other night and combined for 227 total points. The points for both teams came via great shooting by both teams. The Pelicans hit 53% from the field overall, 41% from beyond the arc (12-29) and made 26 free throws. The Rockets shot above their season averages too with 48% overall and 36% from the 3-point line. To put these numbers into perspective, these two teams rank in the bottom 10 of the league in both FG% and 3-point FG%. Watch for a regression here by both teams as they trend back to the “norm” in this rematch. Houston’s road games average 224 total points, New Orleans home games average 217PPG. The longterm history between these two teams favors the Under with 19 of the last 27 meetings in the Big Easy staying below the total. Bet UNDER here.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 224 Toronto Raptors @ Charlotte Hornets, 7:10 PM ET - We have a great play for you on Monday with the Over in this contest. This line is lower than it should be based on Charlotte's recent offensive struggles and lower scoring outputs. The Hornets have put up 90, 107, 101 and 86 points in their last four games. BUT those numbers come against Miami, Cleveland, Boston and the Clippers who ALL rank top 8 in the league in defensive efficiency. Toronto ranks 17th in DEFF, allow 46% shooting by opponents (18th) and 35.7% 3-point shooting by foes (21st). Charlotte is going to find their shooting groove here with the 2nd highest scoring offense in the NBA at nearly 114PPG and the 7th best 3-point shooting offense. Toronto is going to score here too against a Hornets defense that is 28th in points allowed per game (114.2PPG), 20th in FG% defense and 23rd in 3-point percentage D. Over the course of their last five games the Raptors have the 10th most efficient offense in the league at 1.162-points per possession. These two teams met in late January and produced 238 total points. More of the same tonight!

ASA top play on 10* OVER 221 Atlanta Hawks @ Dallas Mavericks, 6:10 PM ET - This shapes up to be a high scoring affair with plenty of points from both teams. The Mavs were on a strong UNDER streak in mid-January with 8 straight games staying below the Total but recently they’ve gone OVER in 5 of six. Dallas has the 4th best offensive efficiency rating in the NBA over the last five game span at 1.222-points per possession. On the season they have a top 5 defensive efficiency rating but in their last five games they’ve regressed on that end of the court to 11th allowing 1.123PPP. The Mavs recently put up 132 points against the Pacers and Blazers and they shouldn’t have a problem scoring here against a Hawks defense that is one of the worst in the league. Atlanta is 27th in DEFF, 24th in points allowed per game, 23rd and 25th in overall FG% defense and 3-point% defense. What Atlanta does to well is score points. The Hawks are 7th in scoring, 6th in shooting and 1st in 3-point percentage offensively. With current injuries to both teams we are projecting small ball lineups for both teams which should lead to a faster tempo and an up-and-down game. Four of the last six meetings have resulting in 221 or more points. The bet here is OVER.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 227.5 Miami Heat vs Charlotte Hornets, 7:10 PM ET - Miami is the alpha team in this matchup, and they’ll dictate tempo in Charlotte. The Heat are the 2nd slowest paced team in the NBA, behind only the Knicks when it comes to possessions per game. Charlotte is the 2nd fastest for the season but in their last five games they’ve slowed, and their offensive efficiency has dipped. Miami is 5th in points allowed per game, giving up just 104.8PPG behind the 8th best field goal percentage defense. The Heat are 8th in defensive efficiency allowing1.087-points per possession. At first glance, the Heat have played OVER in 7 of their last eight games but 7 of those eight games finished with less than 226 points (in regulation). Miami just played the Spurs, a very similar team to the Hornets and that game finished with 207 total points. Charlotte has been a high scoring team all season long, but they haven’t topped 220 total points in three straight games and 7 of their last ten. These teams have met once this season and that game finished with 213 total points. We like UNDER here.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 219 Atlanta Hawks @ Toronto Raptors, 7:40 PM ET - We are going contrarian here, grabbing the extra value with UNDER in this contest. This line opened 215.5 and has since moved to the current number of 219 giving us extra value. Not only that, these same two teams just met the other night in Atlanta and the O/U was 212.5. Both teams are coming off big emotional wins last night as the Raptors beat the Bulls in OT while the Hawks defeated the Suns at home. When playing the second night of a back-to-back these two teams average right around 215 total points per game and combined, they are 10-8 to the Under. These two teams rank 19th and 28th in pace of play so they prefer the slower tempo to begin with but given the circumstances this game should be slower yet. The Canadian government is not allowing fans at games, yet which makes this a dead environment and lacking energy for either team to feed off. Toronto’s home games this season have averaged 215 total points per game which is the 3rd lowest number in the NBA. Bet UNDER.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 220.5 Miami Heat vs San Antonio Spurs, 8:40 PM ET - These two teams go about scoring their points in different manners. The Spurs score by getting out in transition and forcing tempo with the 5th fastest paced offense in the NBA. San Antonio is 9th in scoring this season at 111.4PPG, 13.4 of those points come via the fast break which is 8th highest in the NBA. They are also the 7th most efficient team in the NBA when it comes to scoring on the break. Miami on the other hand prefers to play slow, ranking next to last in the league when it comes to pace of play. But the Heat are the 5th most efficient offense in the league at 1.127-points per possession. The Heat are the 2nd best 3-point shooting team in the NBA at 37.5% and the Spurs have a tough time defending the 3-pointer with the 19th ranked 3PT% defense. San Antonio ranks 9th in overall FG% and 13th in 3PT% and the Heat rank 18th in 3PT% defense. Miami is coming off 3 straight lackluster offensive performances and now get a chance to put up big offensive numbers against a Spurs defense that is 20th in efficiency that has given up 115 or more points in 7 of their last nine games. Get your play in on the OVER.

ASA top play on 10* LA Lakers -3.5 over Portland Trailblazers, 10:40 PM ET - Man, I hate betting on the Lakers! LA is obviously a very popular and public team which means they more than likely are over-priced most nights. Since LeBron joined the Lakers, they are a money-burning 136-162-6 ATS (45.6%) which is the second worst spread record in the NBA since 2018. Portland has been horrible on the road this season though with a 7-17 SU record and the 4th worst average loss margin of -8.9PPG. They rank 25th in offensive efficiency on the road and last in road defensive efficiency. The Lakers have played a large portion of the season without Anthony Davis, so their home statistics are somewhat misleading. In games he’s played at home they are 9-7 SU. Yes, the Lakers will be without James here, but the Blazers continue to play and lose without their best player Lilliard. LA has covered 4 straight when coming off a spread loss and recently beat the Blazers by 33 at home. We like Los Angeles to get a solid home win and cover on Wednesday.

ASA top play on 10* Minnesota Timberwolves -5 over Denver Nuggets, 8:10 PM ET - We like the home team to prevail by double-digits in this matchup and will back the Wolves here. Let’s get this out of the way first. The Nuggets are playing lights-out right now with 5 straight wins and 8 of their last ten. We do like they are coming off a blowout win of the World Champion Milwaukee Bucks and may letdown here, especially with a potential look-ahead with the Jazz. The Nuggets have won 4 straight on the road but other than the Bucks they won at New Orleans, at Brooklyn who played without the Big 3 and at Detroit. In contrast, let’s look at the Wolves' most recent home games. They beat the Jazz by 20, the Nets by 11 with Irving and Harden and the Warriors by 20. Minnesota is 6-1 SU their last seven at home with all six wins coming by 6 or more points. The Nuggets are a respectable 15-12 SU on the road this season but only 6 of those wins came against teams with a winning record. That ties into the Nuggets 8-18 ATS record in their last twenty-six road games versus a team with a winning home record. We like the Wolves by 10+

ASA top play on 10* Portland Trailblazers -3.5 over Oklahoma City Thunder, 8:10 PM ET - This is one of those “plug your nose” bets as we are backing a losing team as a road favorite. We will though for several reasons including going against a Thunder team that is 14-34 SU on the season and a team without their best player. The Thunder have the 4th worst overall point differential in the NBA at minus -7.2PPG and lose at home by an average of -4.3PPG. OKC is better than the Blazers statistically on the defensive end of the court but are much worst offensively. The Blazers are 16th in offensive efficiency ratings and are the 7th best 3-point shooting team in the NBA. The Thunder rank 30th in points, FG% shooting and 3-point% shooting with the worst offensive efficiency numbers at 1.025-points per possession. Scoring will be even tougher tonight without their best players Shai Gilgeous-Alexander who is averaging 24.4 points, 7.1 assists and 5.5 rebounds in wins this season. The Thunder haven’t won this season without SGA in the lineup and stand 0-5 SU on the year. In those five losses the Thunder have been beaten by 12, 6, 73, 18 and 9 points. Going back further we find the Thunder are a miserable 6-36 SU without Alexander over the past two full seasons. OKC has lost 12 of their last thirteen. Portland is on a 5-0 spread run their last five games when coming off a loss of 10 or more points. The bet here is backing Portland.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 211.5 Dallas Mavericks @ Orlando Magic, 7:10 PM ET - We are getting some extra value here after the Mavs put up over 130 points offensively in two straight games. Dallas shot extremely well in big wins over the Pacers and Blazers by hitting over 53% in both games which is drastically higher than their season average of 45.2% (19th). It also helps that the Pacers and Blazers are two of the worst defensive efficiency teams in the NBA. Orlando isn’t great by any means, but they do rank 18th in opponents FG% and 21st in defensive efficiency ratings. The Magic will have a tough time scoring themselves with the 28th ranked scoring offense facing a Mavs defense that allows just 103.PPG which is 3rd best in the NBA. Dallas is coming off a game last night and the dominant team in this setting so they’ll dictate the pace of play which will be slow. The Mavs rank 29th in the league in tempo or possessions per game. When playing the second night of a back-to-back the Mavs are 8-1 to the Under and those games have averaged 205.2PPG. These two teams met a few weeks back and combined for 200 total points. More of the same today. Bet under!

ASA top play on 9* Chicago Bulls -5 over Portland Trailblazers, 3:40 PM ET - We like the situation to play an elite team in the NBA off a disappointing loss, versus a bad team off a win. The Bulls are coming off a loss in San Antonio and have been solid at home when coming off a beat with a 6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS record. Portland defeated the Rockets in their most recent game and have struggled in this situation with a 3-8 SU/ATS record when coming off a win and on the road. Portland is 7-15 SU away this year with the 4th worst point differential in the league at minus -8.4PPG. The Blazers have the 29th ranked road defensive efficiency and 22nd offensive efficiency numbers. Chicago is 17-6 SU at home with the 8th best average MOV at +4.7PPG. The Bulls were recently a -4-point home favorite over the Raptors who are playing much better than the Blazers and now this line is only a 1.5-points higher?

ASA top play on 10* Washington Wizards +5.5 over Memphis Grizzlies, 8:10 PM ET - The Grizzlies are coming off a big game last night versus the Jazz and are ripe for a letdown. Memphis is playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, 3rd in four nights and 7th in thirteen days. Washington meanwhile has been off since the 25th and will come into this game well rested. The Wizards are getting healthy with Dinwiddie, Beal, Bryant and Hachimura all back in the lineup. Washington is coming off an embarrassing home loss to the Clippers (lost by 1-point after leading by 35-points) the last time out and will be highly motivated here. Memphis is 5-4 SU when playing without rest, but their average margin of victory is minus -1.7PPG. The Wiz are a respectable 10-13 SU away from home on the season and not only do we like them to cover here, but we also won’t be surprised if they win outright.

ASA top play on 10* Chicago Bulls +1.5 over San Antonio Spurs, 8:40 PM ET - We successfully played against the Spurs the other night with part of our analysis touching on scheduling and fatigue being a factor for San Antonio. It showed late in the game and the Grizzlies took advantage with a cover. This isn’t a back to back for the Spurs but this will be their 9th game in sixteen days. The Bulls are 30-17 on the season and sit second in the East behind the Heat. Chicago went through a funk recently with a 4-6 SU record their last ten games but that was largely due to injuries to Zach Lavine and DeMar DeRozen. Both are back here and played well in their most recent game, a win over Toronto. Chicago ranks in the top half of the NBA in most key statistical categories when playing on the road. The Spurs on the other hand rank 25th in defensive efficiency at home which will show in this game with the weapons the Bulls have offensively. Chicago is the 2nd best overall shooting team in the NBA, 1st in 3-point percentage and they should take advantage of a Spurs defense hemorrhaging points in the paint. The Bulls get this road win.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 218.5 LA Lakers @ Philadelphia 76ers, 7:30 PM ET - When I started writing the analysis on this game the number was 220 but has since dropped to the current total but we still have value with the Under. The Lakers got Anthony Davis back who instantly give the Lakers a defensive presence in the paint and a rim protector they’ve been lacking. The Lakers have also focused on the defensive end of the court in recent games with the 3rd best defensive efficiency rating in their last five games. That’s a drastic improvement compared to their season rank of 14th. L.A. has also made a point of playing slower in recent games. On the season the Lakers average 100.4 possessions per game which ranks 3rd most, but in their last five games that number dips to 14th at 98.3 possession per game. Philly is also playing much slower with the 4th slowest tempo in the NBA over their last five games and on the season. The 76ers are 8th in the NBA in points allowed per game at 105.7, have the 13th best 3-point percentage defense and overall FG% defense. The Sixers are also missing one of their top offensive threats in this game with Seth Curry sidelined. The Under has cashed in 5 of the last six meetings between these two teams on this court and we see another low scoring game here.

ASA top play on 9* UNDER 217 Dallas Mavericks at Portland Trailblazers, 10:10 PM ET - The Mavs are coming off one of their worst defensive showings of the season when they allowed 130 points to the Warriors last night. Dallas is 14-33-1 UNDER on the season and have stayed below the Total in 8 of their last nine games and 13 of their last fifteen. On the season the Mavericks are 5th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.072-points per possession. Dallas is also one of the slowest paced teams in the league at 95.8 possessions per game. The Blazers are slightly faster than the Mavs when it comes to pace but still rank as the 13th slowest in the NBA. The Mavs rank 22nd in offensive efficiency ratings and won’t take advantage of a poor Blazers defense. Portland has struggled offensively all season ranking 17th in offensive efficiency after finishing 2nd in that category a year ago. These are two poor shooting teams with the Blazers ranking 23rd in FG% offense, Dallas checks in at 20th with both teams shooting under 45%. Dallas is coming off a game last night and they are 8-0 UNDER this season when playing without rest and those games finished with only 200 total points. Bet UNDER.

ASA top play on 10* Memphis Grizzlies -4.5 @ San Antonio Spurs, 8:40 PM ET - We love the spot to fade the Spurs and back the Grizzlies in this matchup. First off, the line on this game looks “fishy” and higher than it should be. San Antonio was just a +1-point home underdog against Brooklyn and Philadelphia and are now catching 4 or more points here? Vegas clearly wants you to bet on the Spurs so in contrarian fashion we will back Memphis. The Spurs are coming off a game last night in Houston and played their best basketball of the season. But now they are unrested playing the second night of a back-to-back, their 3rd game in four nights and 8th game in only 13 nights. Fatigue will be a major factor tonight. Memphis meanwhile is coming off a loss on the 23rd in Dallas so they are rested and hungry for a W. The Grizz are 6-2 SU with 2 days rest this season while the Spurs are 4-5 SU without rest. Memphis is significantly better in terms of offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency with a 15-8 SU road record to their credit. Spurs are on an 0-5 ATS streak as a dog, Grizzlies have covered 4 straight off a spread loss. Lay it!

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 210 Dallas Mavericks vs Golden State Warriors, 10 PM ET - These teams are easily two of the best defensive clubs in the NBA currently with the Warriors ranking 1st in defensive efficiency allowing 1.029-points per possession, Dallas is 4th at 1.067PPP. In their most recent 5 games the Mavs are 1st in DEFF, the Warriors are 4th. Both teams also rank in the bottom half of the NBA in pace of play with the Warriors ranking 19th, Dallas 23rd. The Mavericks have stayed Under in 8 straight games and 13 of their last fourteen. Golden State has also favored the Under with a 7-4 record their last eleven games overall, with 5 of their last six at home staying below the number. When these two teams met earlier this month, they combined for 181 total points. Bet Under.

ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns -9 over Utah Jazz, 7:10 PM ET - The Jazz have struggled offensively of late with Donovan Mitchell sidelined. The Jazz managed just 92 points last night against the Warriors and put up 111 in games against Houston and Detroit who are two of the worst defenses in the NBA. Utah has the #1 ranked offensive efficiency in the NBA for the season but in the last five games they slip to 10th. It will be especially tough to score tonight against a Suns team that is 2nd in the NBA in defensive efficiency allowing .995-points per possession. The red-hot Suns have won 9 of their last ten games and five straight with the average margin of victory in those five games coming by 15.4PPG. This is a really tough spot for the Jazz who are playing the 2nd night of a back-to-back, 3rd game in four days AND 6th game in nine days. These same two teams met again in Utah on Wednesday so expect the Suns to make a statement here.

ASA top play on 10* Charlotte Hornets -3 over Atlanta Hawks, 7:10 PM ET - The Hornets are quietly making some noise in the East with an overall 26-20 record, while the Hawks have disappointed at 20-25. On the season the Hawk are 9-14 SU on the road with a negative differential of minus -3.1PPG which ranks 20th. A large reason why Atlanta has struggled away from home is their defensive efficiency ratings which is 2nd to last in the NBA. Charlotte has the 9th best average point differential in the league at home at +4.4PPG. They have the 5th best home OEFF numbers which is clearly a significant advantage against the Hawks D. Charlotte has won 7 of their last eight games with impressive wins against the Bucks (twice), at Philly and at Boston. Atlanta has won three in a row but all three were at home. Charlotte is 9-3-1 ATS the last 13 meetings with Atlanta in Charlotte.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 220 Indiana Pacers @ Phoenix Suns, 9:10 PM ET - These same two teams met Jan 14th in Indiana and that game finished with 206 total points which finished well Under the number of 219.5. The Pacers managed just 94 points in the contest and that was with their full complement of players. Indiana just played and beat Golden State on the road with their top 6 players out of the lineup. The bench and role players stepped up for that game but don’t expect a repeat performance. A big anomaly in the game against GST was the Pacers 3-point shooting as they made 15 of 35 3’s. Indiana is 26th in the NBA in 3-point percentage shooting and won’t have another big night from beyond the arc against the Suns defense which is 3rd in points allowed, 1st in FG% D, 5th in 3pt% D and 8th in rebounding. The Pacers are 17th in scoring this year averaging 108.3PPG. Phoenix allows the 5th fewest points per game at home this season where their games have averaged 216 total points. Indiana’s road games have averaged 214 total points. Both teams are trending around average in pace of play their last five games so it won’t be an up-and-down affair. This shapes up to be an easy UNDER.

ASA top play on 10* UTAH JAZZ -13.5 over Detroit Pistons, 9:10 PM ET - Detroit is 4-19 SU away from home and they’ve been beaten by an average of -14.2PPG which is the worst numbers in the NBA. The Pistons are LAST in the league in offensive efficiency on the road averaging less than 1.000 points per possession and they 26th in DEFF allowing 1.151PPP. Detroit is 24th in points allowed per game, 29th in opponent FG% D, 28th fin 3-point percentage D and 25th in rebounding. Now they face a jazz team that is 1st in scoring, the 3rd best shooting team at 47.5%, 6th in 3-point percentage and 4th in rebounding. Offensively the Pistons aren’t any better than they are defensively. Detroit is 28th in scoring, 29th in FG%, 29th in 3-point percentage and 28th in offensive rebounding. The Jazz are top 12 defensively in all the key categories. What makes this play more attractive is the fact the Pistons are coming off a big come from behind win at Sacramento while the Jazz are off a disappointing home loss to the lowly Rockets. The Jazz recently lost in Detroit as a -10.5-point favorite and will get a 20-point win here.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 209.5 New Orleans Pelicans vs New York Knicks, 7:35 PM ET - Let’s start with the pace of play for both teams. The Knicks are THE slowest paced team in the NBA at 95.1 possessions per game, the Pelicans are 21st slowest at 97.1. Most recently in their last five games both are playing slower yet. New York gives up the 6th fewest points per game in the league and New Orleans is 24th in scoring. The Knicks are 23rd in offensive efficiency averaging 1.092-points per possession, New Orleans is 25th at 1.082PPP. These are two of the worst shooting teams in the NBA at 43.8% for New York and 43.7% for the Pelicans. The Knicks are on a 7-0 UNDER run when they are favored, the Pelicans are 5-1 UNDER in their last six overall. We don’t see this game getting over 205 total points.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* SACRAMENTO KINGS -6 over Detroit Pistons - Scheduling clearly favors the Kings here with the Pistons coming off a marquee game versus the Warriors on Tuesday night. When playing without rest the Pistons are 2-5 SU this season with a net differential of minus -17PPG. Detroit is 3-18 SU away from home and they’ve been beaten by an average of -14.8PPG which is the worst numbers in the NBA. The Pistons are LAST in the league in offensive efficiency on the road averaging less than 1.000 points per possession and they 26th in DEFF allowing 1.147PPP. Sacramento hasn’t been great at home this year with a negative differential of minus -2.7PPG and a 12-15 SU record but they have won 3 of their last six at home with quality wins over the Lakers and Heat included. The Kings most recent home game was a disappointing loss to the Rockets who shot incredibly well for the game at 54% overall and 40% from 3. The Kings have been off since Sunday and are 3-0 ATS +10PPG when in this scheduling situation. Detroit is playing the 2nd of a B2B, 3rd in four nights and 4th in 6 days.

ASA top play on 10* Miami Heat -3.5 over Toronto Raptors, 7:40 PM ET - We like the situation here with the Heat coming off a horrible home showing and loss, while the Raptors are off a big road win over the Bucks. Miami is 13-5 SU at home with a +/- of +6.6PPG which is 4th best in the NBA. The Raptors are 9-8 SU away from home with a negative differential of -1.7PPG. The Heat have won 4 of their last five at home and are coming off a brutal loss to the 76ers. Miami shot just 38% for the game and 26% from beyond the arc which are both well below their season averages. Butler, Lowry and Robinson combined to shoot 4 of 31 from the field. The Heat have the 2nd best offensive efficiency numbers in the NBA over their last five games at 1.210PPP compared to a Raptors team that is 18th over that span of games. Toronto is better defensively in the last five games but only barely with a DEFF rating of 1.102PPP compared to 1.111PPP for the Heat. Given the situation we like Miami to get a solid home win here.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 216 Golden State Warriors vs. Minnesota Timberwolves, 8:10 PM ET - First off we’ll apologize for this shorter analysis but its football Sunday and time is limited. This game features two of the top 12 teams in scoring this season with both averaging over 109PPG. GST is 11th in offensive efficiency at 1.113-points per possession and 12th in overall pace of play on the year. Minnesota is 6th in pace and will want to play fast here at home. Most recently, in their last five games the Wolves have the 5th most efficient offense in the NBA at 1.170PPP. The Wolves are on a 5-0 Over streak against a team with a winning record, Golden State is on a 4-0 Over run against teams with a losing record. The last four meetings between these two teams have finished with more than 233 total points. Yes, we know there is not Steph Curry here, but they do have Klay Thompson back in the mix and their best defender Draymond Green is out. BET OVER!

ASA top play on 10* OVER 209 Philadelphia 76ers @ Miami Heat, 8:10 PM ET - Both teams are coming off big games last night so we expect both defenses to be lax here in what sets up to be a higher scoring game. This Total is set significantly lower than the league average of points scored of 216.8PPG. Miami relies on their 3-point shooting on offense with the 2nd best league average at 37.8%. The Heat have the best overall offensive efficiency rating in the NBA right now in the last five games at 1.214PPP. The 76ers have also been highly efficient in their last five averaging 1.126PPP which is 10th best in the league. Over their last five games the Sixers are shooting 47.9% which is up from their season average of 46.1%. As we mentioned before, this is the second game of a back-to-back and these two teams combined are OVER 8-1-1 when playing without rest and those games averaged 216.8 and 220.8PPG. The Bet here is OVER!

ASA top play on 10* OVER 213.5 Toronto Raptors @ Detroit Pistons, 7:10 PM ET - We expect a higher scoring game here between the Raptors and Pistons with a predicted finish of 220+ by our computer analytics. Toronto is coming off a defensive grinder against the Suns and will be eager to get their offensive rhythm back prior to a much bigger game tomorrow night versus the Bucks. The Raptors were averaging 118PPG in their 6 previous games before facing a Suns defense that is 2nd in defensive efficiency allowing 1.049-points per possession. Toronto’s 9th best offensive efficiency should have a much easier time scoring tonight against a Pistons defense that ranks 22nd in DEFF and allows 111.3PPG which is 24th. Looking at the Pistons last ten games we see they’ve allowed 133, 140 and 144 points so the potential for a really big number from Toronto is not out of question. Detroit is one of the least efficient offenses in the NBA but they are the 8th fastest which means plenty of possessions. The Raptors aren’t much better defensively than the Pistons as they give up 1.118-points per possession which ranks 20th in the NBA. These two teams met in November and put up 248 points. It won’t be that high tonight but it will be more than the 214 set by the oddsmakers.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 215 LA Clippers @ New Orleans Pelicans, 8:10 PM ET - This number is set slightly lower than the average NBA total right now of 216.6PPG but our math model suggests that this game will not get 210. It starts with pace for both teams with the Clippers checking in at 15th and the Pelicans slower yet at 20th. In their most recent 5 games both are playing slower yet and that shouldn’t change here. If we look at LA’s last five games, we see they are 28th in offensive efficiency at 1.016-points per possession, shooting just 42.9% from the field. New Orleans has been one of the worst offenses in the NBA this season averaging 105.7PPG on 43.7% shooting (26th) and 33.8% 3-point shooting which is 23rd. The Clippers have a top 8 defense in FG% D, 3PT% D and points allowed, giving up 105.3PPG. The Pels have some bad defensive numbers of late but the games they’ve allowed teams to score big numbers have come against some of the league’s elite offenses (Wolves, Suns, Jazz, Bucks) who all rank top 11 in scoring. The Clippers are 23rd in the NBA in average points per game. This is an UNDER BET!

ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets +2.5 over Chicago Bulls, 10 PM ET - Scheduling has a lot to do with this bet as the Bulls are playing their 4th game in seven days and the 2nd of a back-to-back tonight when they face the Nets. Of course, playing status can change throughout the day but as of now the Nets will have their Big 3 in the lineup with Irving, Durant and Harden. The Nets had won 3 straight road games prior to a loss in Portland the other night, but they were without Harden. The Bulls have been a great surprise this season and are playing well but their 9-1 SU results recently are misleading. In their last nine wins, only one has come against a team with a winning record (Washington 21-20 SU) and they lost the lone game against a winning team in Dallas. Brooklyn is looking up at the Bulls in the standings and have lost to them twice already this season making this game a little more important for them. The glaring advantage the Nets have in this game is their 3-point defense which is 1st in the league compared to the Bulls which ranks 20th.

ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns -3.5 over Toronto Raptors, 7:40 PM ET - Any chance we get to back an elite team off a bad loss we’ll consider it and tonight we get that opportunity with the Suns. Phoenix lost their most recent game at home to Miami 100-123, and it was never close. The Suns shot just 38% for the game which was below their season average of 47.3% which is 3rd best in the NBA. Phoenix is 13-4 SU on the road this season with a +/- of +5.4PPG which is also 3rd best in the league. Toronto is playing well right now with 6 straight wins, but we’re not overly impressed with that resume considering the competition included New Orleans, San Antonio, the Knicks and Clippers. The two wins over the Bucks and Jazz in that stretch is misleading as the Bucks were without 3 starters including Giannis and the Jazz sat everyone that game. Toronto really doesn’t enjoy much of a home court advantage (12-10 SU) as fans aren’t allowed in Canada. Phoenix is 25-11 SU off since the start of last season with an average differential of +7.1PPG. Easy call with a focused Phoenix team.

ASA top play on 10* Philadelphia 76ers -10.5 over Houston Rockets, 8:10 PM ET - The Rockets look like a dumpster fire right now and are in a tough spot here coming off a game yesterday, playing their 3rd game in four days AND facing a rested Sixers team. Houston gave up 141 points last night to Minnesota and continue to be the worst defensive teams in the NBA. The Rockets give up 127.8PPG on the season and 1.233-points per possession. Houston is getting beat by an average of -8.6PPG on the season, but in their last five games they have a negative differential of minus -14.4PPG. Philadelphia on the other hand is playing really well right now with a +/- differential of +12.4PPG in their last five games. In that same span of five games the Sixers have the 5th best offensive efficiency numbers and 9th best defensive efficiency numbers. These two teams just played in Philly earlier this month with the 76ers winning by 20 points. Philadelphia is rested and will be primed for a big road win here. Lay it.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 229.5 Minnesota Timberwolves @ Houston Rockets, 7:10 PM ET - Houston is coming off a 106-130 loss to the Mavericks and the significance of that game is the following. The Mavs are one of the slowest pace teams in the NBA ranking 28 out of 30 teams. Minnesota is one of the fastest ranking 8th. Dallas averages just 105.6PPG and they managed 130 versus this Rockets defense which is not a surprise considering Houston ranks 2nd to last in the league in defensive efficiency. In their last five games the Rockets are giving up an average of 124PPG. Minnesota has their Big 3 back on the court with Towns, Russell and Edwards and they’ll play fast and score plenty of point to help this game get Over the number. The Wolves are 14th in scoring this season at 109PPG. Houston is the 3rd fastest paced team in the NBA which means plenty of possessions for both teams and more scoring opportunities. When these same two teams met in October, they combined for 230 points. The bet here is OVER!

ASA top play on 10* OVER 217 Miami Heat @ Phoenix Suns, 9:10 PM ET - We’ve been successful on several occasions recently with the OVER in the Heat game and will go back to the well today. Without a proven rim protector on defense teams are in attack mode when they face the Heat. Miami averages just 3.1 blocks per game which is last in the NBA and most recently in their last five games that average dips to just 2.0BPG. Miami is allowing over 112PPG in their last five games and their defense efficiency rates near the bottom of the NBA. Scoring hasn’t been an issue for the Heat though and they recently got two of their best shooters back in the lineup with the return of Duncan and Strus. In the last five games the Heat are scoring 115PPG and have the 5th best offensive efficiency rating. Miami is the 4th best 3-point shooting team in the NBA on the year at 37.3% but in their last five games that number improves to 41%. On the other side of the court we have the Suns who rank 3rd overall in scoring this season at 112.4PPG, 8th in offensive efficiency and 5th in pace of play. Phoenix is the 2nd best shooting team in the league at 47.5% and 5th in 3-point percentage at 36.9%. The Suns have some gaudy offensive numbers in recent games with 123 and 133 points in two of their last three games. This total is set slightly higher than league average of 216.8 and our analytics suggest it will be much higher scoring than that.

ASA top play on 10* Philadelphia 76ers -7.5 over San Antonio Spurs, 7:10 PM ET - The Spurs are not in a good situation here playing their 5th straight road game and are short-handed without their second and third leading scorers, Kelson Johnson and Derrick White. Also out tonight are key reserves Vassell and Young. The 76ers have a few players out too but have their key players available in Embiid, Harris and Curry. The Sixers are 7-8 SU at home but come into this game having won 5 straight games. Their most recent home game was a 20-point blowout win over the Rockets. San Antonio is 8-12 SU on the road this season with a negative differential of minus -0.6PPG. In their last five games the 76ers have some impressive numbers with the 9th best defensive efficiency and the 4th best offensive efficiency rating. In comparison the Spurs are 27th in OEFF their last five games, 17th in DEFF. Lastly, the 76ers have a +12.8PPG average differential their last 5 games and our analytics say that will be the margin here. Bet Philly

ASA top play on 10* OVER 217.5 Detroit Pistons vs Memphis Grizzlies, 8:10 PM ET - The Pistons are one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA and it showed last night when they allowed 140 points last night to Charlotte. On the season the Pistons allowed 111PPG, are the 29th worst FG% defense, 28th defending the 3-points line and 24th in defensive rebounding. Memphis is quietly putting together a fantastic season having won 6 straight to improve to 25-14 on the year. The Grizzlies are 5th in scoring at 111.3PPG but have averaged over 115PPG in their last six games. Detroit is the 10th fastest paced team in the NBA, the Grizzlies are 12th so expect plenty of possessions to push this game over the Total.

ASA top play on 10* Charlotte Hornets -10 over Detroit Pistons, 7:10PM ET - This line looks “fishy” in our opinion as if the oddsmakers are baiting you to bet the Pistons. We won’t bite and will side with the Hornets. Detroit is coming off their biggest win of the season, a road victory at Milwaukee. The young Pistons let down here against a Hornets team off two straight losses. Prior to their most recent losses the Hornets had won three straight including a 24-point home win over the Rockets as an 8-point chalk. Detroit is 3-15 SU on the road this season with a negative differential of minus -11.4PPG. Charlotte is a respectable 9-5 SU at home with a +1.9PPG +/-. Charlotte is 4-0 ATS at home off a loss this year, Detroit is 1-6 ATS off a win.

ASA top play on 10* Toronto Raptors -6.5 over the San Antonio Spurs, 7:10 PM ET - Our handicapping methods have certainly been altered the past few years as you can’t rely solely on statistics to base your wagers. Much of what you do today has to rely on the lineups and who’s playing on any given night. The Raptors don’t have great overall statistics this season as they’ve been dealing with injuries and covid more so than most teams. They are getting back to full strength, and it’s shown in their play with two straight solid wins over the Clippers and Knicks. San Antonio is dealing with covid and injuries with Doug McDermott and Lonnie Walker IV joining Dejounte Murray in Covid protocols which means the Spurs will be down their 1st, 5th, and 6th leading scorers. The Raptors have been a strong home team in the past and we like them to get a double-digit win here against a depleted Spurs team.

ASA top play on 10* Utah Jazz -9 over New Orleans Pelicans, 8:10 PM ET - We like the situation as an elite team like the Jazz are off a loss against one of the leagues weaker teams. Utah has nearly everyone back at full strength but the Pels do not as Ingram and Valanciunas are both doubtful tonight. New Orleans was just a -12.5-point underdog at home to the Bucks and lost by 23 points. Utah is 12-3 SU on the road this season with the best average differential of +11.8PPG. The Jazz have the best offensive efficiency numbers away from home and the 2nd best defensive efficiency numbers. The Pelicans have the 24th worst average +/- at home and 24th in DEFF on their home court. A motivated Jazz team get a 16-point win here.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 214.5 Indiana Pacers @ Cleveland Cavaliers, 6:10 PM ET - Both teams are dealing with covid issues or injuries so we don't see either of these teams wanting to get into a track meet here. On the season both have favored lower paced games with the Pacer being the 24th slowest paced team in the NBA, the Cavs are 19th. The Cavaliers have the 3rd best defensive efficiency numbers in the league, holding opponents to 1.051-points per possession. The Pacers have been known for their defense but have slipped this year ranking 19th in DEFF but they do hold opponents to 107.6PPG. Indiana is an average shooting team overall but one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the league. Cleveland is better offensively but they're also missing several key players from their rotation. The Pacers are now 11-2 their last 13 road games, while the Cavs are on a 7-2 Under streak as a home favorite.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 218.5 Chicago Bulls vs Washington Wizards, 7 PM ET - This number is slightly higher than the league average of 216PPG but we expect it to be much higher scoring than that. The Bulls were scoring at will going into their game last night versus Indiana. Chicago had scored 130+ points in 3 of their prior four games and 113 or more in 5 straight before running into the Pacers. Last night the Bulls shot poorly at 41% which is significantly lower than their season average of 47%. The Bulls will make more shots tonight against a Wizards team that is 16th in opponents FG% defense and 19th in points allowed per game at 108.5. Washington will get their points too with the 7th best shooting offense in the NBA and they have All-Star Bradley Beal back in the lineup after missing a few games with Covid. Don’t be misled by the Wizards defense in their last game against the Cavaliers where they gave up 93-points because the Cavs were short handed. Prior to that game the Wiz had allowed 116 or more points in 7 of their last nine games. The Bulls are 4-1 Over their last five games playing without rest, while Washington Over 5 of six when coming off a win. BET OVER!

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 217.5 Atlanta Hawks vs Cleveland Cavaliers, 6:40PM ET - Both teams are dealing with the “omnicold” protocols with players out which has left each team with shortened rotations. These two teams prefer to play slower to begin with as they rank 19th and 20th in pace of play. Now with limited regular players you can bet neither team will be anxious to get into a run and shoot game here. The Hawks just played two higher scoring games against the Bulls who are one of the highest scoring teams in the league at 110PPG. Prior to those two games the Hawks had stayed Under in 3 straight games with less than 202 total points scored in each. Cleveland is really hurting at the point guard position, and it has led to some lower scoring games. The Cavs have totaled less than 215 points in 6 of their last seven games. When these two teams met in October at full strength, they combined for 196 total points which was the 5th straight Under in this series. We are betting that trend continues here.

ASA top play on 10* Washington Wizards -3.5 over Cleveland Cavaliers, 7:10 PM ET - This is a wager on the team with “less attrition” as the Cavaliers are decimated at the point guard position right now. The Cavs lost Sexton early on but didn’t miss a beat with Garland and Rubio filling in, but now both of those players are out now too. Cleveland is also missing Osman and Allen, both key rotation players. The Wizard are also shorthanded, but they may be getting Bradley Beal back tonight if he clears protocols. Without Beal the Wizard battled in Miami the other night getting key contributions from Gafford, Kuzma, Dinwiddie and Bertans who all scored 16+ points. Washington has been a solid bet on team at home off a loss this season with a 3-1 ATS record. Cleveland on the road off a loss is 1-3 ATS. The bet here is Washington.

ASA top play on 10* Cleveland Cavaliers -4.5 @ New Orleans Pelicans, 8:10 PM ET - Both teams are missing a few key players with either injuries or Covid protocols, but the Pelicans losses are more significant at the moment. The Cavs have had a few games to adjust to without key personnel and the Pels have not. The line on this game is telling us as much and you shouldn’t be scared off by this number considering the Cavs recent success. Cleveland's past 11 wins have come by at least 10 points, and the Cavs lead the Eastern Conference with 15 double-digit victories. Cleveland has the 3rd best average point differential on the road this season at +5.7PPG. The Cavaliers are one of very few teams in the NBA that can boast a top 10 offensive and defensive efficiency on the road this season. Speaking of defense, the Pelicans don’t play any. New Orleans is 24th in DEFF ratings allowing 1.123-points per possession. They are 23rd or worse in 3-point field goal percentage defense, 26th in FG% D and 27th in points allowed per game. Cleveland can pull another double digit road win here.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 229 Utah Jazz at San Antonio Spurs, 8:40 PM ET - This is a big number, but our model suggests it’s not high enough. Scoring is trending up in the NBA right now and we see this game finishing with more than 232 total points. These two teams recently met and combined for 254 points. There were 193 field goal attempts in the game which is significantly higher than the league average of 176. The Spurs are 6th in pace of play while the Jazz are 11th so we know we will get an up-and-down type of game. The Jazz hold the highest offensive efficiency in the NBA while the Spurs rank 11th. San Antonio has scored 112 or more points in 9 straight games and are coming off a 138-point outing against the Lakers and 144 versus the Pistons. Utah has scored 118 or more points in 7 of their last nine games and 123+ points in 5 of nine. The Jazz are on a 13-4-1 Over run, Spurs Over in 21 of their last 28 at home. The Jazz are without Donovan here and the Spurs are minus Murray but we still like these two teams to score a ton of points here.

ASA top play on 10* PHOENIX SUNS -5.5 over Golden State Warriors, 5:10 PM ET - This is certainly a contrarian play as this number doesn’t look right at all. Consider this, the Warriors have been an underdog twice this season. Once recently in Toronto when they sat their starting lineup and again the first game of the season versus the Lakers. The Warriors were recently a 7-point favorite at home against the Suns and won by 22. Phoenix didn’t have Devin Booker in that game and they shot well below their season average by hitting just 38% from the field. The two teams had met in Phoenix prior to that game with the Suns winning by 8-points as a -3.5-point chalk. Phoenix has the 2nd best home point differential in the NBA at +10.8PPG while the Warriors have a +3.7-point differential on the road. The home team has won 5 straight in this rivalry and all five of those wins came by 6 or more points. Merry Christmas from ASA.

ASA top play on 10* INDIANA PACERS -8.5 over Houston Rockets, 7:10 PM ET - The Rockets are coming off a big road game in Milwaukee last night and they’ve really struggled when playing without rest. Houston is 0-4 SU on the year when playing the 2nd night of a B2B with a negative differential of minus -17PPG. The Rockets are playing their 6th game in 10 days and 3rd in four nights. Fatigue is going to be a major issue. Indiana is coming off an embarrassing 96-125 loss in Miami on Tuesday night and will be primed for a good effort here. The Pacers are much better than their 13-19 SU record as they rank 13th in offensive efficiency and 16th in DEFF. Houston is 27th in both offensive and defensive efficiency.

ASA top play on 10* DENVER NUGGETS -6 over OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER - Thunder off a satisfying win over the Grizzlies who had beaten them earlier this season 152-79 and now let down against the rested Nuggets. Denver has been off since the 17th after their game against the Nets was canceled due to covid. It’s not like OKC has a great home court as they are just 5-10 SU at home this year. The Thunder have the 3rd worst home point differential in the NBA at minus -5.6PPG. The Nuggets have the 8th best OEFF on the road and should outscore a Thunder offense at home that is 3rd worst in the league at 1.040PPP. Lay it.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 220.5 Phoenix Suns @ LA Lakers, 10 PM ET - The Lakers are one of the fastest paced teams in the NBA but also one of the least efficient with the 25th ranked OEFF at 1.006 points per possession. For our wager though, the Lakers offense has been better in recent games averaging 1.055PPP which is 6th best. Phoenix also likes to play fast with the 5th fastest tempo in the NBA which means a lot of extra possessions in this game. The Suns are also one of the most efficient offenses in the NBA and average 112PPG. The Lakers are coming off a 51% shooting night and are the 8th best shooting team in the league. Phoenix is 2nd in overall team FG% and 5th in 3-point percentage. This regular season game won’t be like their playoff series of a year ago and we predict plenty of points here for an easy OVER.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 223 Sacramento Kings @ Golden State Warriors, 10 PM ET - The value in the number is what has us on this Under as this O/U is set 4-points higher than what it should be according to our math model. Consider this, the Kings just faced the Spurs and Grizzlies who are similar to the Warriors in terms of pace of play, but neither of those teams defend like the Warriors. Golden State in #1 in the NBA in defensive efficiency allowing 1.018 points per possession. Oddsmakers had posted O/U numbers on the Kings/Spurs, Kings/Grizzlies games of 227.5 and 221 so in the ballpark of this number. The Kings will have a tough time scoring here with a bottom half of the league offensive efficiency rating and team that doesn’t shoot particularly well at 45.4% overall and 33.5% from 3-point line. Last night the Kings shot 51% from the field and 56% from the 3-point line which was obviously an aberration. Golden State has held 5 of their last ten opponents to 100 or less points and haven’t put up gaudy offensive numbers themselves with 7 games of scoring 107 or less points. With players out for both teams we see this being a low scoring affair. BET UNDER.

ASA top play on 10* Minnesota Timberwolves -3.5 over Dallas Mavericks, 8:10 PM ET - The Wolves have made great strides defensively this season and it’s showing in their record. Minnesota ranks 11th in defensive efficiency this season after ranking 28th a year ago. The Wolves are averaging 108.7PPG which is 12th best in the NBA and are the 10th best rebounding team. Dallas is 26th in scoring this year and the 24th worst offense rebound team in the NBA. Dallas does hold teams to 104.6PPG this year but a lot of that has to do with how slow they play (3rd slowest in the NBA). The Mavs have the 22nd ranked FG% defense in the league. The Wolves have three impressive wins in a row over Portland, Denver and the Lakers most recently by 18-points. The Mavs are coming off a 3-point loss to that same Lakers team. Lay the points with Minnesota.

ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -4.5 over NY Knicks, 7 PM ET - Something isn’t quite right with this number and it looks very much like a trap to bet on the Knicks. So, we’ll side with Boston here minus the points. Granted the Celtics are coming off a game last night, but they also had 3 days off prior to Friday’s action so lack of rest isn’t an issue. The Knicks started the season out hot with a 5-1 SU record in October but since then they’ve struggled with an 8-15 run. In the Knicks most recent nine games they have just 2 wins and they came at the expense of the 9-20 Rockets and 10-17 Spurs. On paper the Celtics look similar to the Knicks with a 1-5 SU record in their last five games but take a look at that schedule. They’ve faced the Lakers, Clippers, Suns, Bucks and Warriors. Those five teams all rank top 9 in defensive efficiency and now the Celtics face a New York team that is 22nd in DEFF. Boston has advantages on the offensive end of the floor with the 13th highest scoring average compared to the Knicks 23rd ranked average. New York beat Boston in October at home by 4 in OT and we like the Celtics to get a measure of revenge here with a double-digit win.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 223.5 San Antonio Spurs @ Utah Jazz, 9 PM ET - These two teams are top 11 in the NBA in scoring with the Spurs averaging 108.8PPG while the Jazz put up 115.6PPG but each does it in different manners. The Spurs play fast with the 6th fastest tempo in the NBA while the Jazz play slower but are the #1 efficiency team in the league. San Antonio wants to get out in transition with the 6th best fast break scoring average in the NBA, which has also helped them own the 5th best field goal percentage in the league at 46.7%.. The Jazz are 1st in scoring, 1st in overall FG% and 3rd in 3-point percentage. Utah is averaging 122PPG their last five games with an incredible 1.244-points per possession. Yes, we know the Jazz are one of the best defensive teams in the NBA but the Spurs are not. In the end, both teams score plenty here for this to get OVER the total.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 212.5 Washington Wizards vs. Phoenix Suns, 9:10 PM ET - The line/money indicators suggest this game is going Over and our math models project 219 points being scored. Phoenix is missing leading scorer Booker but Ayton is back and they have plenty of other options including Chris Paul, Bridges and Crowder. We like the Suns field goal attempts in recent games which has been 93 or more in four straight games. Phoenix is the 5th fastest paced team in the NBA and the home team here which means they get the tempo they want. Washington is off a game last night in Sacramento who is similar to the Suns in pace and offensive efficiency and the Kings scored 119-points. Washington has allowed 113 or more points in 6 of their last seven games and their defensive efficiency in their last five games is 26th worst in the league. When playing without rest this season the Wizards are 4-0 to the Over with those games averaging 225PPG. This one goes OVER rather easily.

ASA top play on 10* Sacramento Kings +2.5 over Washington Wizards, 10 PM ET - The Kings are coming off a couple road losses and return home where they had won 2 straight and 3 of their last four. The Kings held a player only meeting after the recent 3 game road trip and aired some differences regarding effort amongst the team. Now that they are back at home, we expect a much better effort in this one. Washington meanwhile is coming off a tough game in the higher altitude of Denver on Monday night and will be shorthanded again here without Kyle Kuzma who is in Covid protocol. The Wizards opened the season by winning 6 of their first eleven road games but have since lost four of five away from home. Washington has the 21st worst average road differential in the NBA at minus -3.9PPG. If you look at overall season statistics it shows Washington has an advantage defensively but when you focus on their last five games the Kings have the better defensive efficiency numbers. Offensively the Kings have been better all season long and in their most recent five games too at 1.126-points per possession. Sacramento gets it done tonight at home.

ASA top play on 10* Portland Trailblazers +3 over Phoenix Suns, 10 PM ET - Scheduling certainly favors the home team Blazers as the Suns are off a game last night against the Clippers. That’s significant considering the multitude of injuries the Suns currently have with 6 players out including starters Booker and Ayton. Portland has been much better at home than on the road this year with a 10-5 SU season record and four of those losses have come this month. Portland is coming off a home loss as a favorite and primed for this huge Western Conference showdown. This will be the third meeting of the season with the home team winning both and 6 of the last seven meetings. Phoenix has been dominating this season but that is with a full supporting cast. Not tonight. Bet the Blazers.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 216.5 Washington Wizards @ Denver Nuggets, 9:10 PM ET - The Wizards are averaging 105.7PPG on the season which ranks 23rd in the NBA. Denver is scoring less at 105.5PPG (24th). Both are near average or below in offensive efficiency and each rank 17th or worse in 3-point shooting under 34.6%. When it comes to defensive efficiency numbers the Nuggets rank 15th and Washington is 19th so again near average. The key here is the pace of play as both like to play slow. The Nuggets are 28th in pace of play at 96 possessions per game, Washington is 24th at 96.1. Denver is coming off two straight high scoring games but that was against the fast paced Spurs team. The Under is 4-0 the last four meetings in Denver between these two teams. Bet UNDER

ASA top play on 10* OVER 218 Utah Jazz @ Washington Wizards, 7:10 PM ET - The Jazz are quietly flying under the radar right now with everyone focused on the Suns and the Warriors in the West, but Utah has won 6 straight and 10 of their last twelve. In the most recent 6 game winning streak they have averaged 126PPG with an efficiency rating of 1.288PPP. The Wizards have seen their scoring go up in their last five games averaging 107PPG compared to their season average of 105PPG. Washington has also allowed more in their most recent games allowing 111PPG their last five. Both teams can shoot it with the Jazz holding the #1 FG percentage in the NBA at 47.9% while the Wizards are 9th at 46.2%. The Jazz are on a 5-1 Over streak, Washington is Over in 6 of their last seven. The bet here is OVER THE TOTAL.

ASA top play on 10* LA Lakers -4.5 over Oklahoma City Thunder, 8:10 PM ET - I’ll start by saying this, I hate betting on the Lakers as I simply don’t trust them to play hard every night, which is a byproduct of their best player not being the hardest worker in the gym. Tonight I will make an exception as I do feel the Lakers will put forth a maximum effort against the Thunder. OKC has beaten the Lakers twice this season and came from behind in both after trailing by 19 and 26 in each game. Those embarrassing losses should have L.A. focused tonight, not to mention they are coming off a loss last night to Memphis. The Lakers were just a 4-point favorite in Memphis and are now laying just 5-points to the 8-win Thunder. OKC has won two straight, but one of those came at the 4-20 Pistons expense, while the other was against a Raptors team coming off two big wins over Washington and Milwaukee. Prior to their two wins the Thunder had lost 8 straight, two of which came against a bad Rockets team. The Lakers have a slight edge in defensive efficiency and huge advantage offensively as they rank 5th in scoring compared to an OKC team averaging just 99.3PPG which ranks 30th in the NBA.

ASA top play on 10* LA Clippers -3 over Boston Celtics, 10:30 PM ET - This is a tough spot for the Celtics who are coming off a marquee game against the Lakers last night and are playing their 4th game in 6 days. The Clippers have had two days off and will be the much fresher team in this match up. The Clippers have underachieved thus far, but they have won 3 of their last four games including a pair of road wins against the Lakers and Blazers. The Celtics are 7-7 SU on the road this season but only 3 of those wins came against a team with a winning record. The Clippers are 40-22 SU their last 62 home games with a +/- differential of plus +5.8PPG. The bet here is the Clippers as a low favorite.

ASA top play on 10* Brooklyn Nets -2.5 over Dallas Mavericks, 7:30 PM ET - The Mavericks have potential injuries to Luka and Porzingis and even if they do play we like the visiting Nets. Brooklyn is coming off a home loss to the Bulls on Saturday (which we called) and is very good off a “beat” this season with a 6-0 record. Brooklyn’s James Harden has not shot it well this season but a return to the state of Texas may do wonders for his confidence. Brooklyn is better on both ends of the court in this matchup with the 5th ranked defensive efficiency compared to the Mavericks 18th ranked unit. Offensively the Nets also have the advantage offensively ranking 11th in OEFF compared the Mavs who rank 21st. The Nets are 8-2 SU away from home this season with the 3rd best overall point differential of ++6.7PPG. The Mavs have lost two straight at home to inferior teams and this will be their 3rd.

ASA top play on 10* OVER 212.5 Washington Wizards @ Indiana Pacers, 7 PM ET - Scoring is starting to trend up in the NBA after a slow start to the season. The league average of a NBA game is currently 215PPG and we see this game as above average in terms of scoring and predict 222 total points. These teams have met once this season already and combined for 246 points in regulation. Washington has gone Over in 4 of their last five games and all of those four Overs finished with 215 or more points. Indiana has also favored the Over in recent games with a 5-1 record and all five of those finished with 211 or more points. Wizards on a 4-1 Over streak on the road, Pacers 5-0 Over their last five at home. The analytics say this game will be slightly higher scoring than league average. Bet Over.

ASA top play on 10* UTAH JAZZ -4.5 over Cleveland Cavaliers, 3:40 PM ET - There is a lot of buzz surrounding the Suns and Warriors as the best teams in the NBA but don’t sleep on this Jazz team. Even though they have 7 losses this season they are 8th in overall defensive efficiency and 1st in offensive efficiency. The Cavaliers have been a pleasant surprise this season and are doing it on the defensive end of the court with the 3rd best DEFF in the NBA. The difference between these two teams though is on the offensive end of the court where the Cavs rank 18th in OEFF. The Jazz have the best road differential in the NBA this season at +8.4PPG and they’ll win by at least that margin here.

ASA top play on 10* Sacramento Kings pick’em over LA Clippers, 10:10 PM ET - This is an interesting scheduling situation as these two teams just met on December 1st with the Kings winning on the road 124-115. Since then, the Kings have been off and resting while the Clippers are coming off an emotional game against the Lakers last night. L.A. is their 4th game in five nights and the second of a back-to-back so fatigue becomes a factor. In fact, the Clippers are 0-4 ATS their last five games when playing without rest. The Clippers have played a home-heavy schedule this season with 13 of their last 15 played on their home court, the two road games they played in that stretch were losses at New Orleans and Memphis. The Kings are the 7th highest scoring team in the NBA and are capable of scoring with anyone. The Clippers are 19th in scoring and the 20th ranked shooting team in the league. Scheduling favors the Kings here to get a solid home win.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 217.5 Phoenix Suns @ Golden State Warriors, 10 PM ET - These two teams just met on Tuesday with the Suns winning at home 104-96. That game stayed well below the total of 221 and we feel this game does too. Phoenix lost their best offensive player Devin Booker (23PPG, 4.5APG) early in that game and he’ll be out the entire game tonight with a pulled hamstring. These two teams feature two of the best overall defenses in the NBA as the Warriors rank 1st in defensive efficiency while the Suns are 2nd. Golden State has the #1 rated field goal percentage defense allowing just 42.3% on the season, the Suns are 6th allowing 43.4%. The last 8 times the Suns have been a road underdog the Under has cashed in 6 of those. The Warriors are on a 4-0 Under run and 9 of the last ten meetings has been an Under.

ASA top play on 10* New York Knicks +2 over Chicago Bulls, 7:40 PM ET - We are betting value here with the Knicks as a home dog. These two teams met on Nov. 21st in Chicago and the Bulls were favored by -5.5-points and are now laying 2 on the road which doesn’t add up. New York was also just a +4-point dog at home against the Suns who have won 17 straight games. Chicago is off a home win, New York is off a road loss. We expect the revenge minded Knicks to get payback here. The Bulls have failed to cover here in 4 straight visits and are 3-7 ATS the last ten clashes.

ASA top play on 10* LA Clippers -6.5 over Sacramento Kings, 10:30 PM ET - This will be a tough spot for the Kings. The Kings are playing their 5th game in 8 days, 3rd in 4 nights and 2nd of a B2B. When playing without rest this season the Kings are 1-2 SU/ATS. The Clippers are rested and coming off two straight home losses but one was to the red hot Warriors. On Monday the Clippers were embarrassed at home by the Pelicans. Pels center Valanciunas had a monster 39/15 game. LA is solid off a loss with a 23-19 ATS record, their last 42 in that role with a +6.2PPG differential. The biggest difference between these two teams is on the defensive end of the court where the Clippers rank 2nd in defensive efficiency while the Kings rank 26th. Also, the Kings are the 25th worst 3-pt shooting team in NBA, Clippers 12th best. The Clippers have covered 10 of the last 13 meetings with the Kings.

ASA top play on 10* Detroit Pistons +9.5 over Portland Trailblazers, 10:10 PM ET - The Blazers are in a tough spot here coming off a game last night in the higher altitude of Utah and playing their 5th game in seven days. Detroit was off on Monday after playing the L.A. on Sunday. The Pistons have been competitive in their two most recent road games losing by 4-points to the Lakers and 11 to the Clippers. If we look at the Blazers last four home games, all wins, but they took advantage of the Nuggets and 76ers with injuries and barely beat the Bulls and Raptors by 5-points each. Detroit is on a 4-1 ATS streak and continues to be undervalued by the oddmakers. Portland is 2-3 SU this season when playing without rest with a negative differential of minus -1.3PPG. Grab the points.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 217.5 Indiana Pacers @ Minnesota Timberwolves, 8 PM ET - The Pacers are unrested here after a game on Sunday against the Bucks. That factors in here as the Pacers are 4-0 Under their last four when playing without rest. In those four games played without rest the Pacers games averaged 200-total points per contest. Indiana ranks 13th in defensive efficiency and give up 106PPG. Minnesota has been a big surprise this season and a lot of their success is a result of their defensive intensity. Minnesota is 11th in DEFF this season which is significantly higher than the 27th ranked unit they featured a year ago. In 7 of their last ten games they have held opponents to 101 or less points. The Wolves are 26th in team field goal percentage and the Pacers are 20th in 3-point percentage. Indiana is 8-1 Under their last nine away from home. Wolves Under in 9 of their last 12 home games. BET UNDER.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 212 Miami Heat @ Chicago Bulls, 8:10 PM ET - We have a match up of two teams that both rank in the top 10 in defensive efficiency (Heat 4th, Bulls 10th) and points allowed per game as the Heat give up 102.4PPG, Bulls 104.6PPG. The pace of this game shouldn’t be fast as the Bulls are average in possession per game while the Heat are 27th and one of the slowest in the NBA. Chicago played a game last night against the Magic and allowed 88-points. When playing without rest the Bulls have averaged only 196 total points. The Heat have 1 day rest and playing in that scenario they average 206.4PPG. Last season when NBA games averaged 224 total points these two teams played in three low scoring affairs with totals of 212, 207 and 191. With NBA scoring down this season to 214 we expect even less scoring in this game. The bet here is UNDER.

ASA top play on 10* Indiana Pacers -3.5 over Toronto Raptors, 8:10 PM ET - This is a great spot to fade the Raptors who are coming off a solid road win, while the Pacers are off a disappointing OT home loss to the Lakers. This will be the Raptors 6th straight road game and they are just 2-4 SU in those recent away games. Indiana is 4-1 SU their last five home games and also 3-1 ATS this season at home when off a loss. These two teams have met twice already this season with the Raptors winning both meetings so we expect the revenge minded Pacers to get a solid home win here.

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 212.5 Miami Heat @ Minnesota Timberwolves, 8:10 PM ET - Look out NBA, here come the Minnesota Timberwolves! The Wolves are playing well right now with 4 straight wins and 5 in their last six games. That streak has been fueled by a stingy defense allowing less than 100-points in 5 straight games and 6 of their last seven. Minnesota catches the Heat coming off a game last night in Detroit so fatigue becomes an issue on the offensive end of the court for Miami. The Heat have totaled less than 212 total points in 4 straight games and are once again one of the best defensive teams in the league. Miami has allowed less than 105 points in 6 straight games and have the 4th best defensive efficiency rating in the NBA. Minnesota is 9th in DEFF for the season which is a DRAMATIC improvement over last year’s numbers and they have the best DEFF in the NBA over the last 5 games. Miami is the slowest paced team in the NBA over their last five games while Minnesota is 14th slowest. This shapes up to be a defensive battle with a very low total. BET UNDER.

ASA top play on 10* NY Knicks -3.5 over LA Lakers, 7:35 PM ET - The Lakers will be without LeBron James in this game after he was ejected in the last game against the Pistons. The altercation was the main story from the other night but from our standpoint the issue was the Lakers were trailing the 4-12 Pistons by 15-points entering the 4th quarter. Prior to their win over the Pistons the Lakers had lost 4 straight road games by an average of 13PPG. LA was one of the best defensive teams in the NBA a season ago, but now rank 20th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.091-points per possession. The Lakers offense has been even worse ranking 24th in offensive efficiency. The Knicks are coming off a disappointing road loss in Chicago in which they led big before late game collapse and a 6-point loss. The Knicks are 11th in offensive efficiency and 17th in DEFF but both of those rankings are better than the Lakers. The Knicks have covered 4 straight at home against LA and are on a 3-0 SU streak when home coming off a loss.

ASA top play on 10* Indiana Pacers +4.5 over Chicago Bulls, 8 PM ET - This is a great spot to fade the Bulls as they are off a 5 game West coast road trip, then hosted the Knicks on Sunday night and now must face a rested Pacers team. Indiana is just 2-9 SU on the road this season, but they’ve been in tight games recently and have an average loss margin of -3.6PPG. Chicago is 5-2 SU at home this year with a +/- of 8.8PPG but this isn’t sustainable. The Bulls are better this season, but they were 15-20 SU at home last year with an average Margin of Victory of -1.7PPG. The Pacers are 6-2 ATS the last 8 meetings and catch the Bulls in a bad spot. Grab the points.

ASA top play on 10* Milwaukee Bucks -12.5 over Oklahoma City Thunder, 8:10 PM ET - We can’t add a ton of statistical support to this game as the Bucks have been dealing with several key injuries to start the season with starters Lopez, Middleton, Holiday and Giannis all missing games. Statistically there isn’t support this season but last year the Bucks were 36-11 SU at home with an average margin of victory of +8.9PPG. OKC was 12-24 SU on the road a year ago with a negative differential of -9.2PPG. Recently the Thunder were just a 9-point home dog to Brooklyn and got beat by 24-points. The line on that game clearly shows us this number on the Bucks at home isn’t out of line. Let’s also consider Milwaukee was just a 9-point home favorite over the Lakers. The Bucks are still without Lopez but everyone else and they won’t be looking past this OKC team with Orlando on deck. Bucks by 20.

ASA top play on 10* Memphis Grizzlies +1.5 over LA Clippers, 8:10 PM ET - The Clippers are 9-5 SU on the season, but they’ve benefited from playing 10 of those games at home. The Clippers record is very misleading because of the favorable schedule, and they have just 2 wins over teams with a winning record and one of those came against Charlotte who is 9-7. One of LA’s losses this season came at home against this Memphis team 114-120. The young Grizzlies are still trying to figure out how to be more consistent, but they seem to get up for the league’s best teams. Memphis has beaten this Clippers team, the Warriors and Denver twice. LA has a long injury list right now with three key players banged up as Morris, Batum and Mann are on the injured list. Memphis comes into this game rested, off a solid home win and healthy. Our computers has the Grizzlies favored by 3-points in this game so grab the value with Memphis.