Sports Picks & Predictions

ASA play on: LA Clippers -4.5 over Houston Rockets, 9:35PM ET – We are on the Clippers here minus the points in this Western Conference showdown. Clearly these are two of the best offensive teams in the NBA ranking 3rd (Houston) in offensive efficiency at 1.114 points per possession while the Clippers are 7th at 1.114PPP. The Rockets get their points by shooting over 45 3-pointers per game (1st) while the balanced Clippers get 49PPG in the paint (7th). Defensively is where these two teams are drastically different with the Clippers holding the 7th best defensive efficiency rating allowing just 1.043PPP compared to the Rockets 16th ranked DEFF allowing 1.092PPP. Los Angeles holds opponents to 34.2% shooting from beyond the arc which is 11th best in the NBA. Houston is 22nd in the NBA at points allowed in the paint per game so you can see the Clippers have several key advantages. This will be the third meeting of the season as the home team has won both thus far. Houston has played the much easier schedule, yet the Clippers have the better overall statistics. The Clippers have covered 4 in a row at home as a chalk, 5-0 after tonight.  

ASA 10* PLAY ON: Dallas Mavericks -8 vs. Miami Heat, 8:30PM ET

The Hear will have a hard time getting back up for this game after their marquee game against the Lakers last night at home. Miami hasn’t won a game this season when playing without rest and have lost those games by an average of 17PPG. The Heat are basically an ‘average’ team on the road with a 7-6 SU record and an average differential of -2.6PPG (16th in the NBA). Dallas is rested and lost their most recent home game so expect a focused effort here. The Mavs have the second-best average home point differential in the league at +9.1PPG and are the most efficient offense in the league at home. The Mavericks have covered 9 of their last ten as a favorite while Miami comes into this game 0-5 ATS their last five when playing without rest. Lay the points.

ASA PLAY ON: OVER 227.5 Milwaukee Bucks vs. Memphis Grizzlies, 8PM ET – The Bucks continue to roll through the NBA, and they weren’t slowed the other night playing without MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo, beating the Pelicans 127-112. Milwaukee has the deepest bench in the NBA and a plethora of players capable of stepping up to make shots and score double-digits. The Bucks are 1st in scoring at 120.8PPG, 2nd in team FG%, 14th in 3PT% and 1st in rebounding. Most importantly here, they are the fastest paced team in the NBA overall at 105.2 possessions per game and the fastest when playing on the road. That great for our wager here as we know one thing for certain, this will be an up-and-down affair with Memphis. The Grizzlies played a stretch of games without rookie point guard Ja Morant who returned the other night to help lead Memphis to back-to-back wins against Golden State and Phoenix. Memphis is also one of the fastest paced teams in the NBA at 103.6 possessions per game, so they’ll gladly play at the Bucks tempo. The Grizzlies are 20th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.115 points per possession and only the Wizards allow more points at home than them (110.8PPG). The total on this game is barely higher than league average (221.6) with a pair of teams that like to play fast. We gladly bet OVER in this one.

ASA PLAY ON: NY Knicks +9 over Portland Trailblazers, 10PM ET – The Knicks have one of the worst records in the NBA but they’ve clearly underachieved based on the marginal talent on the roster. New York has a solid core of vets with Randle, Gibson, Morris and younger talent in Barrett, Ntilikina Portis and Payton. The players did not buy in with former head coach Fitzdale’s system and should relate to new coach Mike Miller. New York played well in a 1-point loss to Indiana in Miller’s first game and should continue to get better. Considering the change, we predict for the Knicks going forward this line is not what it should be. New York was just a +9.5-point underdog in Toronto who is better than this Portland team. Speaking of underachieving, let’s talk about the 9-15 SU Blazers. Last season the Blazers won 53 games in the regular season with the 7th best average scoring differential in the NBA at +4.2PPG. Portland had the 3rd best average home differential last year at +8.4PPG which won’t cover tonight’s spread. Portland is just 4-6 SU at home this season with a negative average differential of -1.3PPG. The Blazers have been 9 or more-point home chalks twice this season and they barely covered in overtime against the Hawks and lost outright to the Warriors. Considering the defense been has been horrible their last five games it’s an easy call to take the points and the Knicks here.

ASA 10* play on: Oklahoma City Thunder +1 over Indian Pacers, 8PM ET – At first glance the Indiana Pacers streak of 6-1 their last seven games is impressive but lets take a closer look. In that seven game stretch the Pacers have beaten Memphis twice, Atlanta, Orlando and Brooklyn, none of which have a winning record. You can argue that Oklahoma City is in that same scenario with a losing record, but they’ve played a top ten strength of schedule and Indiana has played one of the easiest. The Thunder have won back to back games against the Pelicans but are just 4-6 SU their last ten games but take peek at who the loses have come against. Portland the Lakers twice, Clippers, this Pacers team and the Bucks. OKC has had a dominating home record in recent years and has a loyal following at home. The Thunder are 92-48 SU at home since 2016 with an average margin of victory of +5.1PPG. The Thunder were recently +1.5 points at Indiana so the line adjustment isn’t what it should be with them the home team. Playing with same season revenge we like the Thunder here by double-digits.

ASA play on: #550 Denver Nuggets -2 vs. LA Lakers, 9PM ET

We will play on the Denver Nuggets here minus the points at home over the Lakers. Los Angeles is certainly the media darling and has garnered a lot of attention with their 17-3 start. But the reality is the NBA set them up with one of the easiest schedules possible to start the season to ensure TV ratings early on and promote them as the team of destiny this season. On a side note, it hasn’t worked as NBA ratings are down this season but that will change as the season heats up. Back to basketball, the Lakers roster is an impressive one, but they’ve played the softest schedule to date and of their 20 games, ONLY 6 have been against teams with winning records and they are 3-3 in those games. The Lakers lofty offensive (8th) and defensive (4th) efficiency numbers are skewed as a result of the schedule. Denver on the other hand has faced much stiffer competition and is 1st in the NBA in DEFF and 20th in OEFF. The Nuggets at home have already beaten Boston, Houston, Philadelphia and Miami who are some of the league’s better teams. Even with that schedule the Nuggets still have an average margin of victory at home of +6.4PPG. Again, the Lakers are 1-1 on the road against winning teams this year yet only have an average margin of victory of +4.3PPG playing their weak schedule. The oddsmakers are begging us to bet the public Lakers here and we won’t bite. Denver has covered 5 straight against the Lakers on this court. Bet the Nuggets.

ASA PLAY ON: Oklahoma City Thunder -6 over Golden State Warriors, 10:30PM ET – The Thunder already own a pair of wins over the Warriors this season and there’s no reason they can’t beat them again by more than this spread. The Thunder have some solid efficiency numbers their last six games when you factor in the teams they’ve faced. OKC played the Lakers twice, the Clippers, Philadelphia, Indiana and Milwaukee. The Thunder lost to the Bucks by 2-points, beat Philly, lost to both L.A. teams by a combined 10-points. OKC has a negative point differential of minus -0.7PPG this season but they’ve faced the third toughest schedule. The roster is solid with veterans Chris Paul, Gallinari and Adams along with Gilgeous-Alexander who is playing great. Dennis Schroder and Terrance Ferguson round out the top six. The same can’t be said for Golden State who look like the walking wounded. The Warriors dressed just 8-players the other night in Utah due to injuries. GST has the worst overall average point differential in the NBA at minus -10.4PPG and the worst home differential at minus -9.0PPG. The line on this contest is slightly inflated but we feel Vegas is trying to keep us off Oklahoma City here. Lay the points.

ASA 10* PLAY ON: Denver Nuggets -5 over Boston Celtics, 9PM ET – In our opinion Brad Stevens is one of the best coaches in the NBA so it’s hard to believe his record off a SU loss is just 20-18 SU since the start of last season. Boston has gotten off to a fantastic 11-3 start this season but depth is a concern, especially in this situation with it being their 5th straight road game and the higher altitude of Denver. The Celtics have struggled with their shooting of late and we feel it catches up to them here. Boston has hit less than 42% from the field in four straight games. The Nuggets defensive efficiency rating is 4th best in the NBA and they are holding foes to under 43% shooting in their last five games. Denver got off to a slow start but are hitting their stride with wins in 7 of their last eight games which includes home wins over Miami, Philly and Houston who are all comparable to the Celtics. Denver is 44-12 SU at home since the start of last season with an average margin of victory of +9.2PPG. Lay the points.  

ASA 10* play on: Toronto Raptors -3 over Orlando Magic, 7:30PM ET – These two teams have met on this floor already this season with the Raptors coming out on top by 9-points as a 5-point favorite. That was the 5th straight time the Raptors have beaten the Magic and there is no reason to think that streak ends tonight. Orlando hasn’t won a road game this season and have a negative differential of minus -5.5PPG when away from home. Historically the Raptors have had some of the best numbers at home and this year their average point differential of +13.8PPG is second in the league. Much has been made of the Magic’s improved defensive efficiency numbers that rank them 9th in the NBA but Toronto has a better points per possession defense allowing just 1.030PPP which ranks them 5th. Orlando isn’t nearly as good as the Raptors on the other end of the court as Toronto ranks 10th in offensive efficiency, Orlando 24th. Yes, the Raptors don’t have Kyle Lowry in the lineup but VanVleet and Powell will pick up the slack in the backcourt. Lay the points with Toronto tonight.

ASA play on: Cleveland Cavaliers +4.5 over Miami Heat, 6PM ET - *Note early tip time* We love the Cavs here who are a team lumped together with some of the worst teams in the league, but are better than expected. Let’s talk line value first. The Cavs are catching a similar number at home as they were against Boston and Dallas recently who are both better than this Miami team as of this writing. Injuries: The Heat have suspended Dion Waiters, Justise Winslow is out and they have health concerns with Dragic, Johnson, and Herro who are all questionable tonight. The Cavaliers have played the 8th toughest schedule when it comes to efficiency ratings and yet they have the 17th average point differential of minus -0.9PPG. Miami is 3-3 SU on the road this season with a differential of minus -2PPG. Cleveland is 2-2 SU at home and their differential is minus -2.2PPG so in both those scenarios (Miami away, Cavs home) the Cavs are within the spread tonight. Let’s not forget the Cav vets are playing hard to showcase their talents for other teams in the league before trade deadline when this team gets blown up. Take the home dog here and the points!

ASA play on: LA Clippers +2.5 over Houston Rockets, 7:30PM ET – Obviously the biggest game on the card tonight is this one and we are betting the Clippers. These two teams are both 7-3 SU on the season and have some similarities when it comes to general statistics but the biggest advantage the Clippers have is defense. Let’s compare both teams: The Clippers are 8th in offensive efficiency ratings, the Rockets are 3rd. Los Angeles is 11th in defensive efficiency, Houston is 20th. To summarize the Rockets, have a slight edge offensively and the Clippers hold the advantage defensively. But the Clippers numbers have come against the 3rd toughest schedule to date while the Rockets stats have come against the SECOND EASIEST! Houston has one quality win on their resume which was at home against the Bucks.  The Clippers on the other hand have beaten Toronto, Portland, San Antonio, Utah and the Lakers. After facing the much tougher schedule the Clippers average point differential is +5PPG while the Rockets are +1.9PPG against a weak one. L.A. has covered 5 straight, the Rockets are 0-4 AGTS their last four against a team with a winning record. The better defensive team wins outright. Play on: LA CLIPPERS

ASA Play on: Utah Jazz +3 over Milwaukee Bucks, Friday 9PM ET – This is simply a bad number set by the oddsmakers and we’ll gladly take the value with the home team Jazz. Consider this: Utah was just favored by -2.5 points at home over a Philly team that is VERY comparable to Milwaukee and a -7.5 point favorite against the Clippers at home (minus Kawhi). The Jazz won both of those games and are unbeaten at home this season. Last year the Jazz were 29-12 SU at home with the 6th best home point differential at +7.9PPG. Going back further the Jazz are 30-16 their last 46 regular season home games with an average winning margin of +4.8PPG (11th best in the NBA). Milwaukee is clearly one of the best teams in the NBA and have some impressive road numbers including a 27-14 SU record away from home in the regular season last year. The Bucks road differential a season ago was +5.6PPG which was 2nd best in the league but that’s barely better than the spread here. The home team has won and covered 4 in a row in this series and with the vast majority of public money and tickets bet on the Bucks, we’ll go opposite and take the home team Jazz.

ASA 10* Play On: #552 Denver Nuggets -4.5 over Miami Heat, 9PM ET – We are getting value here with the home team Nuggets who are off to a slow start by the standards set for them this season, while the Heat are over-valued by a hot start. Miami does have a pair of quality wins on their resume against Houston and Milwaukee, but their other three wins have come against Atlanta and Memphis. With a 5-1 SU record and a public team, the Heat will have the Nuggets full attention tonight. Denver is 71-21 SU at home since the start of the 2017 season with an average margin of victory of +7.9PPG. Last season Denver had the second most efficient offense in the NBA at home last year at 1.172PPG and the 5th best defensive efficiency allowing 1.064PPP. Denver was 34-7 at home last year and won by an average of 10.6PPG. The Heat are clearly over-valued tonight considering they were a 7-point dog at a lesser Minnesota and +11.5 points in Milwaukee. This Nuggets team was one of the favorites to win it all this season. Denver lost their last home contest and will send a message tonight. Lay the points.

ASA 10* play on: LA Clippers -4 over Utah Jazz, 9PM ET – The Clippers are the best team in the NBA right now and Paul George hasn’t even seen the floor yet. Here’s what we’ve seen in this small sample size of the NBA. The Clippers have played the 4th toughest schedule to date based on opponents offensive and defensive efficiency ratings, yet they have the 11th best point differential at +4.7PPG. They are unbeaten at home with a point differential of +10.4PPG. Utah is going to be one of the better NBA teams this season, but they’ve played the second easiest schedule and current numbers are inflated. Utah faced the Lakers in Los Angeles earlier this season and were plus +3.5 points so the adjustment by the oddsmakers isn’t enough for the better of the two L.A. teams. Just how good is Kawhi Leonard you ask? He currently leads the Clippers in scoring, rebounding and assists. The Clippers just lost in Utah the other night but Kawhi was rested due to load management. He’ll play here and lead the Clippers to a double-digit home win.

ASA 10* play on: Indiana Pacers -5.5 @ Cleveland Cavaliers, 7PM ET

These two teams have very different season projections with the Pacers expected to win roughly 48 games while the Cavs season win total is 24. That essentially tells us what these teams are all about, so we have a good team off a loss laying a marginal number on the road. Granted, the Cavaliers are off a loss too but again, they are not a good team. Last season the Pacers were 18-17 SU off a loss, Cleveland was 15-47. Last year the Pacers were favored by -9.5-points and -7-points, so we have some value in today’s spread. Indiana had the 10th best road differential in the NBA a season ago with a top 10 road defensive efficiency ratings. The Cavs last season had the 3rd worst home point differential at minus -7.3PPG and were last in home defensive efficiency ratings. In the 4 meetings last season the Pacers won by 8 or more points. The Pacers have covered 5 of the last six meetings on this court. Lay the points.

ASA PLAY ON: Boston Celtics -2.5 over Toronto Raptors, 7PM ET – We like the situation and will back the home team Celtics here off a loss in the opener. Toronto is off a home win which was much tougher than it should have been against the Pelicans. The Celtics lost in Philly the other night and the main contributing factor was poor shooting by the C’s. Boston hit just 36.7% of their overall FG attempts and under 27% from beyond the arc. Those numbers are drastically lower than their season averages a year ago and now they are at home in a more friendly shooting environment. Last season Boston had a top 12 team at home in: margin of victory, offensive and defensive efficiency ratings. Granted, Toronto had good road numbers too but that was with Kawhi Leonard who is clearly one of the three best players in the entire NBA. Against a bad defensive team from a year ago, the Pelicans (23rd in DEFF), the Raptors shot just 40% a team and benefited from ‘home cooking’ and +15 free throw makes in their win. Boston is 84-49 SU versus the East since 2017 and 57-26 SU at home as a favorite in that same time frame. With the line where it is, we are basically asking the Celtics to just win this game which they’ll do by more than the spread. Boston has covered four straight at home over Toronto and the host is on a 9-0 spread run.

ASA PLAY ON: NY KNICKS +10.5 over San Antonio Spurs, 8:30PM ET – It’s a fresh start and the Knicks have a clean slate to start the season after tanking last year. New York doesn’t know how bad they’re going to be this season, so we expect a max effort tonight in San Antonio. In fairness to New York they will win more than 17 games this year with a semi-talented roster that can beat just about anyone in the East on any given night. Julius Randle is coming off his best season with 21PPG, 8.7RPG and 3.1APG and can play at a very high level. The backcourt is athletic with Dennis Smith Jr, Elfrid Payton, Reggie Bullock (out) and RJ Barrett. Marcus Morris and Taj Gibson brings veteran leadership and toughness while Kevin Knox and Bobby Portis have huge upside. New York was a dismal 8-32 SU on the road last season with an average differential of minus -10.8PPG which is essentially tonight’s spread AND that record is with them trying to lose to get the #1 pick in the draft! San Antonio returns a roster of veterans and youth and basically stood pat in free agency. They do get Dejounte Murray back from injury who is a budding star, but he did miss the entire season a year ago. The Spurs were 34-10 SU a year ago at home with an average margin of victory of just +6.7PPG. San Antonio was one of the slowest paced teams at home last year which makes covering larger numbers more difficult with less chances to score for each team. San Antonio was a double-digit home favorite 8 times last year and they only covered twice. New York stays within the number here. Grab the points!

ASA 10* play on: Under 211.5 Toronto Raptors @ Golden State Warriors Thursday 8PM ET – Way too many unknowns from a psychological aspect to wager on a Side of this contest but the Under still offers value.  The scenario surrounding KD has the Warriors organization, and the entire NBA in flux right now, and we’re not sure of the impact it has on the current Warrior players.  On the other side we have a Raptors team that has never “gotten over the hump” in a game of this magnitude and even though Kawhi is clearly the best player on the planet, he still needs support from his teammates. Three of the five games in this series has gone Over the total but one game finished with 213 total points and the two most recent game finished with just 197 total points and 211. In Game 4 of this series we saw the combined total field goals attempts dip to just for just 164 and both shot under 45% as a team. The average FG attempts this season in the NBA was 178 and teams averaged 45.9% shooting so both numbers were significantly lower than ‘average’.  In Game 5 the two teams combined for 167 field goal attempts and 74 of those were 3-pointers, which is 10 more than league average. Golden State knocked down 20 of 42 3-pointers or 47.6% which is ridiculous (made 45 total in the previous 4 games) while Toronto was just 8 of 32 from downtown. Golden State won’t make as many tonight and even if Toronto makes a few more it won’t equate to enough points to go Over the number. The Raptors defense has been the big difference in this series as they’ve held the Warriors to just 44%, which is significantly less than their season average of 48.8%. Golden State averaged 117PPG on the year but are scoring just 105PPG in the Finals. Toronto had two great shooting performances in this series, but the magnitude of this game will cause some tightness in the younger roster of the Raptors as they face a monumental opportunity to close out the Champs this evening. We predict another slower paced game by both teams and tremendous defensive intensity in this elimination game. Bet UNDER!

ASA play on: Under 215 Golden State Warriors vs. Toronto Raptors, Monday 8PM ET – Every logical approach to this game screams betting the Warriors and the statistical support is off the charts BUT my eyes are telling me the Raptors are just playing better right now and it’s not as close as the number suggest. So, we’re staying away from a side wager on this game and will bet Under the total. Three of the four games in this series has gone Over the total but one game finished with 213 total points which would win here, and the most recent game finished with just 197 total points. Tonight’s contest has all the makings of another game with less than 200 total points. The last time out these two teams combined for just 164 total field goal attempts and both shot under 45% as a team. The average FG attempts this season in the NBA was 178 and teams averaged 45.9% shooting.  The Raptors defense has been the big difference in this series as they’ve held the Warriors to just 44.2%, which is significantly less than their season average of 48.8%. Golden State averaged 117PPG on the year but are scoring just 104.7PPG in the Finals. Toronto had two great shooting performances in this series, but the magnitude of this game will cause some tightness in the younger roster of the Raptors as they face a monumental opportunity to close out the Champs this evening. The return of KD is also significant for the Warriors defensively as they can defend the arc better which has been an Achilles heel for them this series. We predict another slower paced game by both teams and tremendous defensive intensity in this elimination game. Bet UNDER!

ASA play on: Golden State -4.5 over Toronto Raptors, 9PM ET Friday, Game 4 – There are some key stats that support this wager but in laymen terms it boils down to a great team off a home loss as a favorite. The Warriors were 24-7 SU off a loss this season, 12-2 SU at home off a loss and the last six wins in a row at home off a beat are by an average of 15PPG. More specifically, when Golden State is off a home loss, they are 5-1 SU with wins by 7, 17, 14, 28 and 6 points respectively. The Warriors are 36-7 SU at home the past 3+ years in the playoffs with an average differential of +11.9PPG and only once in that time have, they lost back to back home games. Toronto shot the shit out of it in Game 3 with an effective field goal percentage of 62.8% which is basically unheard of. That is clearly abnormal too as the Warriors EFG % defense was 6th best in the NBA this season at 51%. Granted the Warriors 3-point defense was atrocious in Game 3 and a lot of that has to do with the absence of Klay Thompson and KD. Thompson will be back tonight which should make a difference in how the Warriors defend the Raptors beyond the arc tonight. The Raptors literally had everything go right in Game 3 and we just don’t see that happening in Oakland with the Warriors in a do-or-die situation. As we mentioned, defending the 3-point line will be key and we don’t see Danny Green and Kyle Lowry going 11 for 19 from downtown tonight. Steph Curry is certainly capable of a repeat performance of Game 3, but we must bet the rest of the Warriors play much better than they did in G3. The betting markets are backing Toronto tonight, yet the line is not fluctuating the way the money is flowing. That’s a clear sign to bet on Golden State tonight.

ASA play on: Toronto Raptors +4.5 over Golden State Warriors, 9PM ET Wednesday – The number on this game is extremely short and typically we wouldn’t like going against the Warriors at home with this low of a line, but we’ll make an exception here. This isn’t the same Warriors team as injuries has taken its toll and there are just too many to overcome or justify betting them here. In Game 2 the Warriors got a HUGE boost with Boogie back on the floor as the logged 27 minutes, grabbed 10 rebounds and added 6 big assists and scored 11-points. But now the Raptors will have a plan in place to counter his presence and take advantage of a hobbled Klay Thompson if he’s able to suit up. The other big loss that’s not being talked about is Kevon Looney who has been a big energy guy and defensive stopper for Golden State. Even with Thompson scoring 25 in the last game before being hurt and shooting 46.3% as a team the Warriors managed just a 5-point road win in Game 2. Toronto had a horrendous shooting night in Game 2 (37.2%) so even if they have a less than stellar performance tonight, they can still cover this number. Toronto already has 4 playoff road wins this post season and that includes wins in Philadelphia and Milwaukee which are as tough a venue as you find. During the regular season this Raptors team had a +4.6 point road differential which was 3rd best in the league. Golden State wasn’t their usual dominate selves at home this year with the 11th best home differential of +6.6PPG (down from +7.6PPG last year, +15.9PPG the year before). The Raptors lost just 9 road games by more than 5-points this season which correlates to their 3rd rated offensive efficiency rating on the road and 4th best DEFF rankings. In closing, even if Klay can play tonight, just how effective can he be on one leg? That’s asking too much of Steph Curry and the rest of the team to overcome. This will be close throughout so we grab the points!

ASA play on: Golden State +2 over Toronto Raptors, 8M ET – We are betting the more experienced, defending Champions, off a loss here. Toronto again got a huge game from Siakam in Game 1 but don’t count on a repeat performance here as he consistently hasn’t done that all season long. Leonard was again fantastic for the Raptors but he clearly was laboring throughout the game. The high or energy from the Game 1 win won’t be as pronounced for Toronto in Game 2 as they have a win under their belt. The Raptors are 41-11 SU at home this season with a +8.5 point differential. Golden State is 33-17 SU on the road this year with a +6.6 average point differential. Those numbers are some of the best in the league. This comes down to an experienced team that has “been here, done that” before against a team that has zero lottery players on their roster and almost none of them have played on this big of a stage before. The probability numbers we’ve run on this game tell us overwhelmingly to bet the underdog off a loss and the heavy factor against the Raptors is winning 6 straight games against the 2 other best teams in the NBA. Golden State was 23-7 SU off a loss this season, 72-19 SU or 79% since 2015. This Warriors team is a remarkable 44-11 SU their last 55 playoff games and we’re betting they bounce back here with a win in the North.

ASA play on: Golden State +1.5 over Toronto Raptors, 9PM ET – Thursday Game 1 – The most recent memory in bettors minds right now is the Raptors beating the Bucks in the Eastern Conference Finals and they have bet accordingly. Give credit to the Raptors in that series win and their defense which was the difference. The Bucks literally didn’t make any adjustments in the last four games and tried to stay with their offensive philosophy which allowed the Raptors to essentially play zone defense. That won’t be a luxury against this Warriors team as they have way too many shooters to space the floor. Toronto could play off several Bucks in the last series but can’t here. The Warriors have had extra rest coming into this game and really didn’t miss a beat when Durant went down with his calf injury. In fact, they adapted and morphed into the team they were without him. Draymond Green has been a beast with Durant sidelined and provides another match up nightmare for Toronto. The Raptors were 40-11 SU at home this season with a +8.5 point differential. Golden State was 33-16 SU on the road this year with a +6.6 average point differential. Those numbers are some of the best in the league. This comes down to an experienced team that has “been here, done that” before against a team that has zero lottery players on their roster and almost none of them have played on this big of a stage before. Not to mention the veteran team and defending champion is an underdog. Before we go, we want to leave you with this. Is it more impressive that Kawhi Leonard was able to drag this team and roster to the Finals than the team LeBron took to the Finals with Love and Irving? Yeah, Leonard has been outstanding but even he can’t carry this team past the Champs. Play on Golden State in Game 1.

Milwaukee Bucks +2 over Toronto Raptors, 8:30PM ET Saturday, Game 6 – The Raptors have had role players step up in big moments this series, but now that the spotlight and expectations are clearly high in this elimination game, we don’t expect the same production. Kawhi Leonard has been ridiculous in this series and I would argue has done more with less than LeBron and the Cavaliers a few years ago when they won their Ship. There is a reason the Bucks head coach Mike Budenholzer has been mentioned as a potential coach of the year and he’ll adjust here. If Giannis is on the floor then Bledsoe can’t be. The Bucks need to surround Giannis with shooters so the Raptors can’t collapse on him. If both Bledsoe and Giannis are on the floor, then Giannis needs to move to the baseline where he can roam behind the D. The Bucks are 10-4 SU in the post season with an overall average differential if +9.8PPG. The Bucks are 62-21 SU as a favorite this season with a 37-17 SU record versus other playoff teams this season. Let’s not forget just how dominate the Bucks have been this season as 52 of their 70 wins have come by double-digits. The Bucks road differential of +5.6PPG was second best in the NBA this season behind only the Golden State Warriors. Milwaukee had the 4th best road offensive efficiency at 1.123PPG and defensive efficiency allowing just 1.068PPP which was best in the league. We won’t ignore the Bucks 22-3 SU record off a loss, 10-2 SU on the road. The clincher for us though with this wager is value. The Bucks were favored by 3-points in the last game on this floor and are now a dog of 2 or more points. That is an over-reaction by the betting public and it’s always best to bet value over “feelings”. This series gets extended to a game 7.

ASA  play on: Milwaukee Bucks -7 over Toronto Raptors, 8:30PM ET Thursday, Game 5 – The Raptors sent a message in the last two games to remind everyone they had the 2nd best record in the NBA this season for a reason. But now that the venue changes and the teams head back to Wisconsin, we can expect Milwaukee to get a resounding win on their home court. Milwaukee had the second-best home record in the NBA during the regular season with a 33-8 SU record and an average differential of plus +12.1PPG. The Bucks are 10-3 SU in the post season with an overall average differential if +11.1PPG which balloons to +14.7PPG at home. The Bucks are one of the best shooting teams in the NBA at 47.4% and shoot 35% from beyond the arc and will find their groove again back at the Fiserv Forum. In Game 4 of this series the Raptors got HUGE production out of their bench and role players but that certainly won’t carry over on the road. Clearly the Raptors rely heavily on Kawhi Leonard and fatigue, along with a nagging knee/quad is becoming a huge factor for the Super Star as the playoffs wear on. The Bucks are 62-20 SU as a favorite this season with a 37-16 SU record versus other playoff teams this season. Let’s not forget just how dominate the Bucks have been this season as 52 of their 70 wins have come by double-digits. The Milwaukee Bucks had some of the best overall efficiency numbers during the regular season, and are the ONLY team left that have BETTER offensive and defensive efficiency numbers in the playoffs compared to the regular season. Nobody said this series was going to be an easy one for the Bucks and winning in Toronto is certainly a tough task, but back at home the Bucks get a much-needed win by a double-digit margin.

ASA 10* NBA PLAY ON Milwaukee -3 over Toronto, Tuesday at 8:30 PM ET

We’ve clearly lost value on this game with the Bucks going from an underdog in Game 3 to a favorite in tonight’s game. The Bucks starters were HORRENDOUS in Game 3, yet still could have won in double over-time. How bad were Milwaukee’s starters you ask? Middleton, Bledsoe, Antetokounmpo and Mirotic were a combined 14 of 59 from the field or 24% from the field. Those four also combined to make just 3 of 22 3-pointers. The Raptors benefitted from a non-call on a Kawhi Leonard double-dribble that led to an uncontested dunk at a critical juncture. Giannis was also called for his 6th foul on a questionable call which forced the Bucks superstar to the bench. Milwaukee has a near perfect record this season when coming off a loss with a 22-1 SU record. That’s not a coincidence either as a good coaching staff clearly knows how to adjust from one game to the next. And those wins have come by an average differential +15.4PPG. The Bucks had the 4th best road offensive efficiency rating on the road this season of 1.123PPP and a defensive efficiency of 1.068PPP which was 1st. Milwaukee’s +5.6 average point differential away from home was second best in the NBA this season. The Bucks bounce back in a big way with a double-digit win!

ASA play on: Portland Trailblazers +3 over Golden State Warriors, 9PM ET – Game 4 Monday – You know us, we are betting numbers and value, not teams. The play here is Portland at home. Teams down 0-3 in the past have not done well historically but the oddsmakers have factored that in and the over-adjustment is too great to pass up. Portland has been very good off a loss this season with a 23-12 SU record, 14-5 their last nineteen in that situation. In Game 1 the Blazers shot just 35% overall from the field (ssn ave was 45%) and made just 25% of their 3-point attempts (shot 35% during the reg ssn). In Game 2 the Blazers shot much better at 44.2% overall, 46.2% from the 3-point line. In Game 3 the Blazers made just 40% of their field goal attempts, 31.4% from beyond the arc. Portland has the 8th best overall and 3-point shooting percentage at home this season.The Warriors are 3rd in overall shooting percentage defense but 13th in defending the 3-point line. Damian Lillard has had a tough series, but we expect him to bounce back here after a dismal -23 differential in the last game. Portland was 32-9 SU at home in the regular season with the 3rd best average point differential of +8.4PPG. Portland was a home underdog just five times this season and they won four of those games outright. The movement of the line has us on Portland in this game.

ASA play on: Portland Trailblazers over Golden State Warriors, 9PM ET – Game 3 Saturday – Fatigue was clearly a factor in Game 1 of this series as the Blazers were coming off a huge 7-game series in Denver with four games played in the higher altitude. In Game 2 they had a little more rest and were off an embarrassing showing in Game 1 so the effort and attitude was drastically better. Portland led by 15 at halftime and had a legitimate chance to steal a road win Golden State before falling short late. Based on the money and tickets being bet on this game its clear the public is backing Golden State as a dog in Game 3 but we won’t fall for the trap. Portland has been very good off a loss this season with a 23-11 SU record, 14-4 their last eighteen in that situation. In Game 1 the Blazers shot just 35% overall from the field (ssn ave was 45%) and made just 25% of their 3-point attempts (shot 35% during the reg ssn). In Game 2 the Blazers shot much better at 44.2% overall, 46.2% from the 3-point line. Back at home expect another improvement in Game 3. Portland was 32-9 SU at home in the regular season with the 3rd best average point differential of +8.4PPG. The Warriors had some very good road differentials and efficiency numbers but that was with KD and now they are just 4-6 ATS their last ten on the road. Portland is going to win this home game.

ASA 10* play on: Milwaukee Bucks -6.5 over Toronto Raptors, 8:30PM ET Friday, Game 2 –

The results of Game 1 and the statistics therein have us betting the Bucks again in Game 2. Milwaukee is one of the best shooting teams in the NBA at 47.4% but in Game 1, on their home court, the Bucks managed just 39.8% as a team. From beyond the 3-point line they shot just 25% as a team which is drastically lower than their regular season average of 35%. We predict a return to norm in Game 2 and expect the Bucks to have a much better shooting night. As we said in our analysis of Game 1, the Raptors rely too much on Kawhi Leonard and fatigue became apparent late in the game. If history holds true, Kyle Lowry won’t have the night he did in Game 1 as he hit 10 of 15 FG attempts which is abnormal by his previous standards. Lowry was dreadful in three outings against the Bucks in the regular season as he averaged 6.3 points on 7-of-30 shooting from the field (1-of-20 from three) to go along with 8.3 assists and 5 rebounds.  The fact that Lowry failed to score a single point on 11 tries from the field in the 122 possessions he went up against Bledsoe in all three losses the Raptors had against the Bucks this year. Milwaukee will make the adjustment here and have Bledsoe on Lowry which will again put more pressure on Leonard. The Bucks have several players that can step up and fill the void if one of the stars isn’t hitting as was the case in Game 1 with Brook Lopez. The Bucks are 61-19 SU as a favorite this season with a 36-15 SU record versus other playoff teams this season. Let’s not forget just how dominate the Bucks have been this season as 52 of their 69 wins have come by double-digits. The Milwaukee Bucks had some of the best overall efficiency numbers during the regular season, and are the ONLY team left that have BETTER offensive and defensive efficiency numbers in the playoffs compared to the regular season. Milwaukee has now beaten this Raptors four of five this season and rolls to a Game 2 win by double-digits.

ASA play on: Portland Trailblazers +7 over Golden State Warriors, 9PM ET – Game 2 Thursday – After breaking down Game 1 of this series we like the Blazers chances to cover the spread in Game 2. First off, Terry Stotts is a good coach and will adjust in guarding Steph Curry in the pick-n-roll where he had the most success in the opener. Secondly, the Blazers were coming off a huge 7-game series in Denver and fatigue was clearly a factor. Now they have had a little more rest and are off an embarrassing showing in Game 1 so expect a much better effort here. The Warriors did lose two home games in the opening round to the Clippers and their average home differential is just +4.5PPG in the post-season. In the opener the Warriors were up only 6-points going into the fourth quarter before the Blazers collapse. Portland has been very good off a loss this season with a 23-10 SU record, 14-3 their last seventeen in that situation. In Game 1 the Blazers shot just 35% overall from the field (ssn ave was 45%) and made just 25% of their 3-point attempts (shot 35% during the reg ssn). So, expect a return to the more ‘normal’ statistics here which will lead to a Blazers cover. Ask yourself this, with Golden State off a commanding win in the opener by 22-points, why did this line open higher, with the money and tickets coming in on the Warriors, yet the line went down? Portland had the 8th best road differential in the league this year at 0PPG so they are more than capable of keeping this game close throughout.

ASA play on: Milwaukee Bucks -6 over Toronto Raptors, 8:30PM ET Wednesday, Game 1 - The Bucks are 60-19 SU as a favorite this season with a 35-15 SU record versus other playoff teams this season. Let’s not forget just how dominate the Bucks have been this season as 52 of their 68 wins have come by double-digits. Eric Bledsoe is averaging 16PPG in the playoffs on 47.8% shooting, Khris Middleton had a few rough shooting nights in the first two rounds but did average 16PPG in the series against the Celtics. Pat Connaughton and George Hill also provided some invaluable minutes off the bench for the Bucks in the first two rounds. Not to mention the Bucks get starter Malcolm Brogdon back for this series who makes them even deeper yet. Throw in the ‘bigs’ of Lopez, Mirotic and Ilyasova and you have a floor-spacing, 3-ball-makin bunch that are tough to defend. With the floor spaced it only make Giannis that much tougher to defend as he gets to the rim at will or drives and unselfishly kicks to open shooters. Game 7 of the Toronto/Philly series is a perfect example of why the Raptors won’t win this Eastern Conference Finals. You can’t rely solely on Kawhi Leonard to win a series. Leonard made a miraculous shot to win Game 7 against Philadelphia and put up 41 points in the process. It took Kawhi 39 shots to get to 41 and there were several opportunities for other players to take open shots, but they were reluctant to do so. Kyle Lowry is a notorious choker in the post-season, Pascal Siakam is an up-and-comer but still young and in an unfamiliar role. Marc Gasol is an adequate center but past his prime and not a rim protector. The rest of the supporting cast for the Raptors just isn’t good enough to provide Leonard with help to win this series or Game 1. The Milwaukee Bucks had some of the best overall efficiency numbers during the regular season, and are the ONLY team left that have BETTER offensive and defensive efficiency numbers in the playoffs compared to the regular season. Milwaukee beat this Raptors three of four this regular season and rolls a Game 1 win by double-digits.

ASA’s 10* play on: OVER 220.5 Portland Trailblazers @ Golden State Warriors, Game 1 Tuesday 9PM ET – The injuries to the Warriors has a dramatic impact on this line and what we expect Golden State’s game plan to be going into this series. As we saw in the clinching win over the Rockets, the Warriors reverted back to the “Klay and Steph” show which saw them play fast and attempt a ton of 3’s. Golden State chucked 38 three pointers in the game which was four more than their league average of 34. The Warriors were the 10th fastest paced team in the NBA this season, averaged 1.160 points per possession and 117.7PPG. This Golden State team was not as good defensively as past editions as they finished the season ranked 13th in defensive efficiency. Portland is coming off a touch series with a slower paced Nuggets team (4th slowest in paced during the regular season) and will enjoy a faster paced tempo here. Portland was the 3rd most efficient offensive in the NBA during the regular season averaging 1.146 points per possession and 114.7PPG. The Blazers defense ranked outside the top half of the league in defensive efficiency allowing 1.105PPP. Neither team does well defending the 3-pointer (13th and 15th) and both shoot it well (8th and 3rd). During the regular season the oddsmakers posted totals of 218.5 (Nov 23rd), 227, 226 and most recently 235 on Feb 13th. In other words, the most recent meeting between these two teams had a total of 235 and now we have a number of 220.5, which oh-by-the-way, is less than the league average of total points scored per game during the regular season. It all adds up to a higher scoring game. BET OVER!

ASA 10* play on: Portland Trailblazers +5.5 over @Denver Nuggets,330pm ET – We won’t ignore the fact that the Nuggets have some of the best efficiency numbers at home along with a +10PPG average differential but let’s also recognize that Portland was 8th in road differential at 0PPG which is 8th best in the NBA. So clearly the Blazers can play with anyone in the league when away from home, especially if the circumstances are right, which is the case tonight. Despite Denver’s fantastic home numbers, they do allow opponents to shoot 44.7% on their home court which can be exploited by a solid shooting team like the Blazers, who shot over 46% during the regular season and made 36.1% of their 3-point attempts. Granted neither team is shooting it well in this series, but I trust Lillard and McCollum way more than I do the Nuggets shooters. Prior to the last two games of this series the previous eight games had an average differential of +5.25PPG and we expect this elimination game to go to the wire again. Grab the points and the underdog.

ASA play on @Philadelphia 76ers +2 over Toronto Raptors, 8PM ET Thursday – We are playing on the ‘juvenile’ 76ers in this must win game at home tonight. It’s obvious the young 76ers still don’t full grasp the situation when Embiid is looking at cell phones on the bench, laughing in press conferences and easily distracted during games in the Playoffs. Ben Simmons isn’t much better, but when focused this team is clearly capable of beating anyone on any given night. The 76ers have the luxury of several go-to-guys with Embiid, Butler, Simmons and Harris who are all legitimate scorers in the NBA. Philly has won 75% of their games when coming off a loss and playing at home this season. The home team has won 7 of the last ten meetings between these two teams with the average margin of victory by the home team in those seven wins being 18.4PPG. Toronto had some great efficiency numbers on the road this year and a +4.4PPG differential when away from home but Phillies numbers are better. The Sixers home differential of +8.6PPG is one of the better numbers in the NBA (4th) which coincides with their 31-10 regular season record. Take the home dog as Philadelphia will extend this series.

ASA play on: OVER 220.5 Boston Celtics @ Milwaukee Bucks, 8PM ET – The Bucks had a horrible shooting night in the opener of this series and only managed 90 points. Then in Games 2 and 3 they put up 123 points, then followed up with 113 in Game 4. Based on the pace of play numbers from Game 4 the total points scored should have been much higher than the 214 that was put up. Boston and Milwaukee combined for 190 field goal attempts (league average 178 this season) but both had a terrible night from beyond the arc (Under 23% each) so the game finished with a relatively low total. Milwaukee is going to score in this game as they have at home in the post season. In four home contests the Bucks have put up 120 or more points in 3 of four games. Milwaukee wants to play fast as evidenced by their 104 possessions per game at home this season which is tops in the NBA. That faster pace has led to the Bucks being the highest scoring team in the league at home with a 119.9PPG average. Boston wasn’t particularly fast paced on the road this season, but they were 15th (average) in points scored on the road at 110.7PPG. The Over has cashed 17 of the last 24 meetings and we expect that trend to continue here.

ASA play on: Portland Trailblazers +4.5 over Denver Nuggets, 10:30PM ET – This has been a great series and even though everyone has the Rockets or Warriors in the NBA Finals, one of these two teams certainly could represent the West. With the dust settled after the first four games of this series the total differential separating these two teams is just 2 total points. All four games have been tight, and the dog has covered three straight. Even when we go back to the regular season, we find those four games were decided by an average of just 5PPG. Denver has some fantastic home efficiency and overall statistics at home this season, but Portland has some great numbers too. The Blazers were 14th in road defensive efficiency and 7th in offensive efficiency. Portland was 7th in average point differential on the road at 0PPG. Denver has struggled with their shooting in the previous five games as they’ve hit just 42.7% of their field goal attempts. The Blazers are on a solid 4-1 ATS streak when coming off a straight up loss and will keep this game close throughout. Grab the points and the dog here!

ASA play on Philadelphia 76ers -2 over Toronto Raptors, 3:30PM ET Sunday – We are going contrarian here and don’t expect Toronto to bounce back off a loss in the previous game. It’s obvious the Raptors don’t have enough talent surrounding Leonard and in today’s NBA one player can’t get it done. The 76ers have the luxury of several go-to-guys with Embiid, Butler, Simmons and Harris and it’s proving to be too much for Toronto to overcome. The Raptors will also be short Siakam here which makes Leonard’s job that much more difficult. The home team has won 7 of the last nine meetings between these two teams and all seven wins came by more than today’s spread. Toronto had some great efficiency numbers on the road this year and a +4.4PPG differential when away from home but Phillies numbers are better. The Sixers home differential of +8.6PPG is one of the better numbers in the NBA (4th) which coincides with their 31-10 regular season record. Toronto was 18-8 SU off a loss this season but just 6-4 on the road in that situation. A clear indicator that the 76ers are still being under-valued by the oddsmakers is their 6-1 ATS run, 4-1 spread record their last five home games. Philly grabs a commanding 3-1 lead in the series with a home win today!

ASA play on: Houston Rockets -3.5 over Golden State Warriors, 8:30PM ET – Everyone has jumped off the Rockets bandwagon after two losses to start this series but we’re not one of them. We bet Houston to win this series and even though they must win 4 of five against the Warriors to get it done they are still capable of doing so. Houston’s numbers on the season are just as good as Golden State in many key statistical categories. These two teams were both #1 and #2 in offensive efficiency and were #13 and #17 in defensive efficiency so they are very even teams. Houston beat a very good Utah team at home in the opening round by 32 and 20 and have an average point differential of +7.1PPG at home during the regular season. The Rockets were 31-10 SU at home during the regular season and most importantly, 13-4 SU at home when coming off a loss. Let’s not forget this Rockets team took Golden State to 7-games a year ago and are better overall this season. Golden State has some fantastic numbers on the road this season but in this scenario (up 2-0) we can see a letdown by the Champs. The money and line indicators clearly support a bet on Houston in this game.

ASA play on: Boston Celtics -2 over Milwaukee Bucks, 8PM ET (Game 3) In Game 1 of this series the Celtics had a fantastic game plan to limit Giannis and force other Bucks to beat them. It worked flawlessly and the Celtics drubbed the Bucks big on their home court. Milwaukee then adjusted, bounced back and crushed the Celtics in Game 2. Kris Middleton and Eric Bledsoe had huge Game 2’s after struggling under the weight of the pressure in Game 1.  Middleton made seven 3-pointers and totaled 28 points while Bledsoe chipped in with 21 points. Boston’s All-Star guard Kyrie Irving had a horrible shooting night in Game 2 with just nine points on 4 of 18 shooting. So, we are betting the numbers flip again in Game 3 on Boston’s home floor with the C’s off a BAD loss. The added pressure of being on the road in this opener will again get to the Bucks role players and the hot shooting they enjoyed in Game 2 won’t be the same here. Milwaukee enjoys some of the best road efficiency numbers in the NBA but again, as we’ve said in the past, they played a very soft schedule which influenced those statistics. Boston had an average differential of +6.9PPG at home while shooting 47% on their home court and allowing just 45%. Boston is 7-2 SU their last nine home games when coming off a loss and have covered 6 of the last seven clashes with the Bucks on this floor. Boston bounces back off a loss and gets a home win in Game 3.

ASA play on: OVER 217 Toronto Raptors @ Philadelphia 76ers, Game 3 Thursday 8PM ET – We are now getting 6 full points of value on this Over/Under compared to the first game of this series which opened at 223. In the first two games of this series these two teams combined for just 203 and 183 total points which has forced the oddmakers hand tonight. The pace of play and field goal attempts have been very low in the first two games but now that the venue has changed, we expect the 76ers to dictate the pace of play and force Toronto into a faster game. Philly was the 8th fastest paced team in the league at home this year at 101.6 possessions per game. When playing at home this season the 76ers games averaged 229 total points per contest. Toronto shot 47% on the road this season and averaged 113.2PPG while giving up 108.2PPG for an average of 221PPG. In the two regular season meetings on this court these two combined for 226 and 227 total points and the Over has cashed 7 of the last nine meetings in Philadelphia. The Sixers set the tempo tonight the Raptors are forced to play with them. BET OVER!

ASA play on: UNDER 220 Portland Trailblazers @ Denver Nuggets, 9PM ET – First off, the oddsmaker have adjusted this number up compared to Game 1 so we’ve picked up a few points of value. When we break down Game 1 we see a couple glaring reasons to bet Under in Game 2. The two teams combined to attempt just 160 field goals in the game which is drastically lower than the league average of 178, which typically produces 222 total points per game. Based on the law of averages and statistical analysis it’s logical to assume that 18 less field goal attempts per game is going to produce a total far less than the 2.5-points difference of tonight’s total compared to league average (222 vs 219.5). So why did Game #1 go so far Over the total? Both teams shot remarkably well with the Blazers making 51.9% of their FG attempts and 41.4% of their 3-point attempts. Those numbers are much higher than their season average of 46.7% and 36.2%. Denver also had a very good shooting night by making 50.6% of their attempts from the field and 41.4% from beyond the arc. Again, both numbers are quite a bit higher than their season average of 46.6% and 35.2%. Denver home games this season averaged 217 total points per game while Portland’s road contests averaged 222. The major factor in this Under wager is the pace of play as the Blazers were the 19th slowest in the NBA on the road this season at 99.4 possessions per game. Denver is literally one of the slowest paced teams in the NBA at home (27th) at just 97.3 possessions per game. With both teams preferring to play slower, and both shooting a more normal percentage, it will translate to an easy Under. Based on our highly successful Math Model we project 211 total points being scored tonight.

ASA play on: Houston Rockets +5.5 over Golden State Warriors, 10:30PM ET – Tuesday, Game 2 – I made a wager on the Rockets to win this series before it started and in hind-sight wish I would have waited until after Game 1 to get better odds. The Rockets are going to win this series and the landscape of the NBA will be altered because of the results (much like the Avengers Endgame alternate reality). In any regard, the Rockets took Golden State to a 7-game series a year ago and have a better chemistry this year. Golden State has not enjoyed as big of a home court advantage this season as they have in the past which we’ll explain here. Three years ago, the Warriors were 36-5 SU at home with a differential of +15.9PPG during the regular season. Those numbers dipped a year ago to 29-12, +7.6PPG. This season the Warriors were 30-11 SU at home in the regular season but their average point differential was just +6.6PPG. Houston was great on the road this season with the 5th best road differential of +2.4PPG and an offensive efficiency rating of 1.139 points per possession (2nd). Let’s not forget the Warriors lost two home games in the first round to the Clippers who were one of the 4 worst teams in the entire playoffs. Golden State was just 10-17 ATS at home against winning teams this season while the Rockets were 11-10 ATS on the road against winning teams, and many of those games were as a chalk. Houston was a solid 19-11 SU when coming off a loss this season, 15-2 SU their last seventeen in that situation. The Rockets shot just 41.9% in Game 1 which was uncharacteristically low for them so expect a better night from the field here. Despite the poor shooting in Game 1, multiple technical at the end of the game and questionable non-calls, the Rockets still only lost by 4-points. Easy call here with the Rockets and the points.

ASA play on: Boston Celtics +7.5 over @ Milwaukee Bucks, Tuesday 8PM ET Game 2 – If you had the opportunity to read our NBA analytics article on predicting Champions based on efficiency numbers, you already know the Celtics were one of four teams that can win it all this year. Of course, the Bucks are also one of those four teams too and have the best combined efficiency numbers in the league. But in this scenario, we are backing the dog and grabbing the points with Boston. The Celtics have a top 10 team in both offensive and defensive efficiency on the road this year, with the 7th best point differential at +2.1PPG. When these same two teams met on this court in late February the Bucks were a 6-point favorite and barely won by a point, 98-97. Then in Game 1 of this series the Celtics put together a fantastic game plan to stop Giannis and force the other Bucks to beat them which simply didn’t happen. Boston took control in the 3rd quarter and never looked back in a 22-point win. The Milwaukee Bucks have the best home point differential in the league at +12.1PPG, rank 2nd in DEFF at home and 6th in OEFF. But we must temper those numbers a little as the Bucks played in a weak Central Division and own the 17th easiest schedule in the NBA. Milwaukee is nearly perfect this season when coming off a loss with a 21-1 SU record but that was during the regular season AND they can still win this game but asking them to do so by 8 or more is too much to ask. We all doubted the Celtics this season, but they seem to have figured out their rotations and have come together at the end of the season with wins in 11 of their last thirteen games. The Celtics may be the only team in the East that can match the Bucks depth and it clearly showed in Game 1 which was an easy C’s win. What makes Boston so dangerous is that if their best player, Irving, is off they have so many others that can step up and carry the scoring load. This will be another close game. Grab the points.

ASA play on: Portland Trailblazers +4 over @Denver Nuggets, 10:30pm ET – Denver is coming off a very tough series with San Antonio and now play just a few days after a dramatic Game 7 win. Portland has had extra rest off their series with OKC and the extra game planning will be a huge factor tonight. During the regular season the Nuggets were favorited by 6-points and 4.5-points at home in the two clashes with the Blazers so you can see for yourself we’ve lost a little value here. But that won’t deter us from playing on Portland as we feel the adjustment is justified. The Nuggets have some of the best efficiency numbers at home along with a +10PPG average differential but Portland was 8th in road differential at 0PPG which is 8th best in the NBA. So clearly the Blazers can play with anyone in the league when away from home, especially if the circumstances are right, which is the case tonight. Despite Denver’s fantastic home numbers they do allow opponents to shoot 44.7% on their home court which can be exploited by a solid shooting team like the Blazers, who just shot over 47% in three of five games against the Thunder and have made over 40% of their 3-point attempts in the playoffs. Portland is 16-5 ATS their last 21 games when playing with 3+ days of rest and we feel that will be a big key tonight. This goes down to the wire, grab the points!

ASA play on: Boston Celtics +7.5 over @ Milwaukee Bucks, Sunday 1PM ET Game 1 – If you had the opportunity to read our NBA analytics article on predicting Champions based on efficiency numbers, you already know the Celtics were one of four teams that can win it all this year. Of course, the Bucks are also one of those four teams too and have the best combined efficiency numbers in the league. But in this scenario, we are backing the dog and grabbing the points with Boston. The Celtics have a top 10 team in both offensive and defensive efficiency on the road this year, with the 7th best point differential at +2.1PPG. When these same two teams met on this court in late February the Bucks were a 6-point favorite and barely won by a point, 98-97. The Milwaukee Bucks have the best home point differential in the league at +12.1PPG, rank 2nd in DEFF at home and 6th in OEFF. But we must temper those numbers a little as the Bucks played in a weak Central Division and own the 17th easiest schedule in the NBA. We all started doubting the Celtics this season, but they seem to have figured out their rotations and have come together at the end of the season with wins in 10 of their last twelve games. The Celtics may be the only team in the East that can match the Bucks depth and we like their chances to keep this contest close throughout. Grab the points!

ASA play on: @Toronto Raptors -6 over Philadelphia 76ers, Saturday 7:30PM ET – Game 1 – Both teams come into this contest with similar recent results. Each team lost the opener of the series in round 1 then won 4 straight games to close out the series. The Raptors enjoy a solid home court advantage in this game as they finished the regular season with a 32-9 SU record and a +7.5-point per game differential which was 7th best in the NBA. Toronto was top 9 in the league at home in both offensive and defensive efficiency ratings and of their 32 home wins, 25 came by 6 or more points. Both Raptors wins at home over Philadelphia were by 11 and 17-points respectively. Conversely, the 76ers had disappointing numbers on the road this season with a negative differential of -2.7PPG which was in the bottom half of the league. Philly was 16th in OEFF ratings on the road and 17th in DEFF. The Sixers weren’t great as underdogs in this price range either this year with a 3-9 ATS record when getting 5 or more points this season. Let’s not forget, this isn’t the same Toronto team that was poorly coached in the post season and choked in the past. The veteran leadership of Leonard and Gasol has had a big impact on the rest of the roster and made this team a legitimate contender in the East. In our opinion, Philly is not in the conversation because of their home/road dichotomies. Play on the Raptors at home in Game 1.

ASA play on UNDER 233.5 Golden State Warriors @ LA Clippers, 10PM ET Friday – These two teams combined for a monster total in the last game with 250 total points with the Clippers winning 129-121. There were some abnormal numbers in that game including the Clippers making over 54% of their field goal attempts from the field and 38.2% from beyond the arc. On the season the Clippers were a solid shooting team at 47.1% but clearly their performance in the last game was above and beyond. Another factor to consider is this, the Warriors have the 3rd best field goal percentage D in the NBA. The same scenario played out in Game 3 of this series (in Los Angeles) when the Warriors shot a ridiculous 54.8% overall and 42.9% from the 3-point line. If the Warriors shot a more ‘normal’ percentage in that game, it has no chance to go Over the number. So, based on true statistics the two games in L.A. of this series should have both been Unders. The Warriors play slower on the road than they do at home this season and when they face good teams (winning percentage above .600) they have stayed below the total in 7 of their last nine games. Looking at the regular season meetings in L.A. and the two playoff games it certainly could be four straight Unders. The first clash went Over the total, but the two teams combined for 25-points in the OT session or that game stays Under. In January, on this court they totaled 206 and then the two playoff games with the one Over barely getting there with the Warriors shooting an unrealistic percentage. Easy call on the UNDER here!

ASA play on: San Antonio Spurs -3 over Denver Nuggets, 8PM ET Thursday – The Nuggets have rebounded in this series to take a 3-2 lead but it’s not over yet according to our math model. The Spurs have won 14 of the last fifteen meetings against the Nuggets on their home floor and with their backs against the wall they’ll find a way to win this game tonight. In Game 3 the Spurs were favored by -4.5 points and now the line has fluctuated down to minus -3 as of this writing. We are going against the Nuggets here for the same reason we’ve faded the Spurs a couple games in this series and that’s home/road dichotomies. Denver has a negative road differential of -2.6PPG this season which is 4th worst of all the playoff teams. They are outside the top half of the league in both offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency on the road this season compared to top 5in both at home. San Antonio had the 10th best home differential in the league at +6.8PPG and were top 9 in both OEFF and DEFF on their home court. A big reason why the Spurs have a solid point differential at home is their 3-point shooting in their building which is best in the NBA at 41.6%. The Nuggets are slightly better than league average in defending the 3-point line when away from home. San Antonio has been extremely good off a loss and playing at home with a 12-3 SU record this season. This series gets extended with a Spurs win by 7 or more.

ASA play on: Utah Jazz +8.5 over Houston Rockets, Wednesday 8PM ET – Game 5 - The money is clearly on the Rockets in this game with the vast majority of tickets and money siding with the Rockets. But based on the volume of wagering the line hasn’t moved as it should. That’s a clear indicator that smart money is on the Utah Jazz. The Utah Jazz finished the regular season on a blistering 30-11 SU run but public bettors have forgotten that after three straight Rockets wins to start this series. The 3-1 Houston lead in this series has led to tremendous value with the Jazz here in Game 5. The Rockets potential undoing this post season will be there defense which ranked 18th in DEFF on the season. Of all the playoff teams, only the Spurs and Clippers were worse. Utah on the other hand had the 2nd best defensive efficiency rating in the NBA this season and it showed in Game 3 and 4. In Game 3, even though they lost, the Jazz held the Rockets to 38.4% shooting and 104 points. In Game 4, the Jazz limited the Rockets to just 35.4% from the field and 91 points. Both those numbers are drastically lower than their season average of 44.8% and 111.1PPG. The Utah Jazz have been plus 8 or more points just two times this entire season which tells us exactly how good they are. We know how well the favorites are doing in the post season but the value on this game is just too good to overlook the dog. Play on the Utah Jazz plus the points.  

ASA play on: Denver Nuggets -5.5 over San Antonio Spurs, Tuesday 9:30PM ET –  San Antonio was just 16-25 SU away from home this season with a negative differential of minus -3.5PPG during the regular season. That was the 19th worst road point differential in the league and the largest margin of any team left in the playoffs. Now they face a Denver team that was 34-7 SU at home with the second-best average point differential of +10.6PPG during the regular season. In fact, of the Nuggets 34 home wins this regular season all but nine were by more than today’s spread. The home team has won 12 of fourteen in this series with the favorite covering 12 of the last eighteen meetings. San Antonio allows foes to shoot nearly 48% when they are the visiting team and gave up an average of 114PPG when on the road. That’s not a good recipe against a Nuggets team that shoots 48.5% at home and averages 114.1PPG. The Spurs home/road dichotomies is drastic and because of their recent poor play the Nuggets find themselves a very low favorite in Game 5, with a chance to take back the advantage in the series. San Antonio had one of the worst defensive efficiency ratings in the NBA when away from home while Denver was 6th at home in DEFF, 2nd in OEFF. Denver found their shooting touch in Game 2 at home and Game 4 in San Antonio. Popp had a great game plan in Game 1 and stole a win on this court. The Nuggets have adjusted and get this crucial home win tonight by double digits.  

ASA play OVER 219.5 Milwaukee Bucks @ Detroit Pistons, Game 4 Monday – The Bucks have flexed their muscle in this series and will look to move on to a series against the Celtics as soon as possible. Milwaukee has scored 121, 120 and 119 in the three games of this series.  In 7 of 12 quarters of this series the Bucks have scored 30+ points, including 3 of four in Game 3 and the only reason they didn’t score 30 in the 4th quarter is because they called off the dogs. Our math model predicts the Bucks getting to 120 again here and the Pistons topping 100. Detroit has scored 86, 99 and then 103 in the three games of this first round. The Pistons didn’t have leading score Blake Griffin for the first two games and he had an immediate impact in Game 3 with 27-points. The pace of play numbers also indicates a trend to a faster paced game as they two teams have attempted 182, 189 and 182 field goals in the three games of the series. Remember the league average for field goal attempts per game is 178. Four of the last five in this series has gone Over the total. The league average for total points scored per game during the regular season was 222 so this game essentially has to be ‘average’ to go Over the number. BET OVER!

ASA play on UNDER 223 Portland Trailblazers @ Oklahoma City Thunder, 9:30PM ET – This series is heating up and the rivalry between Westbrook and Lillard is blossoming into a classic one. In the first two games of this series the Thunder failed to reach 100 points but they ‘exploded’ for 120 in Game 3 back at home. OKC had shot 10 of 61 from beyond the arc in the first two games but then hit 15 of 29 in Game 3. Expect a return to normal today for the Thunder who shoot 45.3% at home this year, 36.1% from beyond the 3-point line. In Game 1 of this series these two teams attempted 179 total field goals. In Game 2 that number dipped to 176 and in Game 3 they combined for just 160 FG attempts. That trend will continue today but we don’t expect both teams to shoot as well as they did in Game 3 (Portland 47%, OKC 48%). Another abnormality was Game 3’s third quarter when these two teams combined for 80 total points. The Blazers got a huge game from Damian Lillard in Game 3 when he went off in the third quarter for 25-points. Portland doesn’t mind playing slower on the road as they ranked 19th in the league in pace of play when away from home. With less field goals attempts, a slower pace, much tighter defense and not as good shooting this game should stay well below the total.

ASA play on: Utah Jazz -2.5 over Houston Rockets, Saturday 10:30PM ET – Game 3 -  The money is clearly on the Rockets in this game with the vast majority of tickets and cash siding with the Rockets. But based on the volume of wagering the line hasn’t moved as it should. That’s a clear indicator that smart money is on the Utah Jazz. The Utah Jazz finished the regular season on a blistering 30-11 SU run but public bettors have forgotten that after two beat-downs in Games 1 & 2 of this series which has led to tremendous value with the Jazz. These two teams met on this floor in early February with the Jazz favored by -7-points and now they are laying several points less than that. Utah has also won 22 of their last 26 home contests and have the 5th best overall home point differential in the NBA at +7.9PPG. They were 14th in offensive efficiency ratings at home and 3rd in DEFF. Houston is one of three teams in the NBA right now that we feel can win it all this season (Milwaukee and Golden State) but this is clearly a ‘play against’ situation. Houston was 22-19 SU on the road in the regular season with a positive road differential of +2.4PPG. The Rockets potential undoing this post season will be there defense which ranks 15th in DEFF on the road this season. Houston was just 17-23-1 ATS on the road this year, 9-11 ATS against other playoff teams when on the road. Utah is on a 13-6 SU run at home against other playoff teams and ALL thirteen of those wins came by more than today’s spread! That means when they win this game, they also cover the short number. In a must win situation, at home, the Jazz get a big win!

ASA play on San Antonio Spurs -3 over Denver Nuggets, Thurs 9PM ET – The Spurs have outplayed the Nuggets in 6 of the eight quarters of this series and if it weren’t for a HUGE 4th quarter in Game #2 this series would be 2-0 Spurs instead of 1-1. We went against San Antonio in the first two games with one main reason backing our analytics and that is the difference in home/road dichotomies for the Spurs. San Antonio has really poor road numbers but also have some really good home statistics. SA was 32-9 SU at home this year with a positive differential of +6.8PPG which was 10th best in the NBA. The Spurs had the 7th best home efficiency numbers and the 9th best defensive efficiency numbers on their home court. At the end of the regular season when Popp was resting players and adjusting his rotations the Spurs went 0-5 ATS and that has influenced the betting number on this game. If we eliminate that 0-5 ATS run the Spurs were 24-12 ATS at home on the season. Denver has not been a profitable road spread team this season with the 3rd worst ATS record in the NBA at 17-24 and just 10-11 as a road dog. Those are not statistics you would expect of a 2 seed in the West. The Nuggets regular season road differential of -2.6PPG is one of the worst differentials of all the playoff teams (only Philly, Spurs and Pistons are worse). Denver is 17th in offensive efficiency on the road this season, 16th in defensive efficiency. The chalk has covered 11 of the last sixteen and we like the Spurs here to win by 8. Lay it.

ASA play on: Indiana Pacers +7.5 over Boston Celtics, 7PM ET – The Pacers had a HORRIBLE shooting night in Game #1. They were awful from beyond the arc, from the stripe and everywhere else on the floor. The Pacers scored just 8-points in the entire 3rd quarter when they went 2 of 19 from the field. That was an aberration as the Pacers are the 6th best shooting team in the NBA. Indiana had the 10th best road differential in the NBA this season at minus -1PPG and were 19-22 SU away from home this season. The Pacers were 12-5 SU this season when coming off a double-digit loss so expect a bounce back here. Boston underachieved all season long but played well in Game #1. But are you betting on the Celtics team you saw play all year long or the one that showed up in the opener? Boston was 28-13 SU at home in the regular season with a point differential of +6.8PPG. The C’s have just one spread win on their home court in their last nine home games and the betting numbers suggest the public is betting based on perception instead of reality. Going back to early January the Celtics have just 7 home wins by 8 or more points. These two teams are closer than the line suggests. Grab the points.

ASA play on: Denver Nuggets -6.5 over San Antonio Spurs, Tuesday 9PM ET –  San Antonio was just 16-25 SU away from home this season with a negative differential of minus -3.5PPG during the regular season. That was the 19th worst road point differential in the league and the largest margin of any team left in the playoffs. Now they face a Denver team that was 34-7 SU at home with the second-best average point differential of +10.6PPG during the regular season. In fact, of the Nuggets 34 home wins this season all but nine were by more than today’s spread. The home team has won 10  of eleven in this series with the favorite covering 10 of the last fifteen meetings. San Antonio allows foes to shoot nearly 48% when they are the visiting team and gave up an average of 114PPG when on the road. That’s not a good recipe against a Nuggets team that shoots 48.5% at home and averages 114.1PPG. The Spurs home/road dichotomies is drastic and because of their recent poor play the Nuggets find themselves a very low favorite in Game 2, off a loss, in a MUST WIN situation. San Antonio had one of the worst defensive efficiency ratings in the NBA when away from home while Denver was 6th at home in DEFF, 2nd in OEFF. Denver had a horrendous shooting night in Game 1 from beyond the arc and from the free throw line so expect a return to average tonight which leads to a double digit win.  

Play on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over the Detroit Pistons. The underdogs cashed in on Saturday with the lone exception being Golden State’s blowout win over the Clippers. This game is eerily like that one and we expect a blowout by the Bucks. There are essentially 4 teams that have a legitimate shot to win it all this year and the Bucks are one of the favorites. The same can’t be said about the Pistons who rate the worst team in the post season. The second worse according to our numbers is the Clippers. Did you know the Bucks were favored in 72 games this year, second only to the Golden State Warriors (75), of which the Bucks won 54 straight up. In their 60 wins this season, 45 were by double-digits! Milwaukee was 27-14 SU against all other playoff teams this season and two of those losses were in the last few games when they had solidified the best record in the NBA. They have the best average point differential in the league at +8.9PPG and the best home court differential at +12.1PPG. Detroit was 15-26 SU away this year with the 17th worst average differential of minus -3.1PPG.  The Bucks beat this Pistons team four times this season with the two home wins coming by 23-points each. The home crowd will be electric today for Milwaukee and the lead will be too big for a back door cover late.

ASA play on: Denver Nuggets -5.5 over San Antonio Spurs, Saturday 10:30PM ET – Let’s make sure we are clear on this. The 2019 Spurs are not the Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker version.  San Antonio was just 16-25 SU away from home this season with a negative differential of minus -3.5PPG. That was the 19th worst road point differential in the league and the largest margin of any team left in the playoffs. Now they face a Denver team that was 34-7 SU at home with the second-best average point differential of +10.6PPG. In fact, of the Nuggets 34 home wins this season all but nine were by more than today’s spread. The home team has won 10 straight in this series with the favorite covering 10 of the last fourteen meetings. San Antonio allows foes to shoot nearly 48% when they are the visiting team and gave up an average of 114PPG when on the road. That’s not a good recipe against a Nuggets team that shoots 48.5% at home and averages 114.1PPG. The Spurs home/road dichotomies is drastic and because of their recent poor play the Nuggets find themselves a very low favorite in this opener. Denver was recently favored by -4.5 points at home over the Spurs and beat them 113-85. San Antonio had one of the worst defensive efficiency ratings in the NBA when away from home while Denver was 6th at home in DEFF, 2nd in OEFF. This game will be blowout by the time the 4th quarter starts.

ASA play on: Portland Trailblazers -8 over Sacramento Kings, 10:30PM ET – We’ve won a lot of money this year playing on or against the Kings and will finish off the regular season with a wager against them tonight. Portland has a lot to play for tonight and the Kings do not. With a win the Blazers have a chance to secure the 3rd seed in the West. That would mean home court in the first round and avoiding a red-hot Utah Jazz team. The Blazers have won 7 straight at home and those wins have come by an average of 8PPG. Portland has the 3rd best overall home differential in the league this year at +8.5PPG and are the 2nd most efficient offensively at home. Sacramento has played especially well at home this season but not as well on the road. The Kings road point differential is a negative 3.7PPG which is 19th worse in the league. Portland will take advantage of a Sacramento D that is 21st in the NBA in road defensive efficiency allowing 1.128 points per possession. The Kings are just 2-7 SU their last nine on the road and have yet to face the Blazers in Portland this season. Typically, we would be concerned about lost line value here but look at the Kings three most recent road games against similar teams to the Blazers. At Utah the Kings were +10, at Spurs +10.5 and at Houston +10 so the line here is not out of whack. Portland was double-digit home favorites over the Grizzlies, Mavs and Suns recently who are worse than the Kings, but not by a whole lot. Easy call here with Portland at home minus the points!

ASA play on: @Utah Jazz -2.5 over Denver Nuggets, 9PM ET – The Jazz are a dangerous team right not and not someone I’d want to face in the playoffs. Utah has won 7 of their last eight games, with the lone loss a disappointing showing against the Lakers.  The Jazz have won 12 of their last fourteen home games, including 7 straight. Of their last seven home wins all but one has come by 9 or more points. On the season the Jazz have one of the best overall home point differentials in the NBA at +7.8PPG. For being one of the best teams in the league this year the Nuggets haven’t been great on the road. Denver has a negative point differential of -2.4PPG on the road this year with a 20-20 SU record. If we dig deeper, we find that the Nuggets are just 2-13 SU on the road their last 15 when facing a current playoff team. In other words, they don’t beat the leagues better teams when playing on the road. Utah has beaten the Nuggets on this court 5 straight times and all five have come by 6 or more points. Easy call with the Jazz tonight. 

ASA play on: OVER 216.5 NY Knicks @ Chicago Bulls, 8PM ET – There won’t be much defense played in this game so each team should put up points in a rematch from April 1st. These two teams squared off just a few days ago and put up 218 total points in Madison Square Garden. The Bulls shot over 44% as a team while the Knicks hit 50%. That’s not a surprise given just how bad both franchises have been on the defensive end of the court this season. Both allow over 1.13 points per possession which ranks them 25th (Bulls) and 27th (Knicks) in defensive efficiency rankings. The Bulls have been especially bad their last five games by allowing 1.195PPP and 117 points per game. The Knicks have had some poor offensive showings in their last ten games but 8 of their last ten have come against playoff caliber teams. When the Bulls have played at home this season their games have averaged just under 218PPG while the Knicks on the road have averaged just over 218PPG. These two teams have locked up their positioning for the lottery so there is no reason for them to not to try tonight, like they have done for the second half of the season. The Bulls have gone Over the number in 6 straight games when hosting a bad team like the Knicks with a winning percentage less than .400 on the road. Both teams are trending a little slower than their season pace but we feel there will still be enough opportunities here to get both teams in the 110 range. Bet OVER!

ASA play on: @Boston Celtics -4.5 over Orlando Magic, 7:30PM ET – Both teams have plenty to play for here as the Magic need a win to clinch a playoff spot in the East, while Boston is fighting for the 4th seed and home court in the first round. The Celtics look like they flipped the switch here recently and are rounding into the team everyone thought they’d be all season long. Reports are that head coach Stevens and Kyrie Irving are on the same page right now and it’s starting to show in the teams play. Boston has won three straight all against desperate teams like Orlando with wins over Miami (twice) and Indiana. Let’s look at today’s number and talk about value. The Celtics were just a 7-point favorite at home over Miami and Indiana at home. The C’s were favored by 1-point in Indiana who is the current 5th seed. Now they are laying this short number at home against the Magic. The reason the number is what it is, is because the Magic are playing well and desperate too. But are they playing well or is it the competition? Orlando is 9-2 SU their last eleven games but look at six of those W’s: Cleveland, Atlanta (twice), New Orleans, Memphis and New York who are some of the worst teams in the league.  Their only good win in that stretch of games came at home against Philly. They also recently lost at Toronto by 12-points who are like the Celtics. The last time these two teams met was in Orlando and the Celtics were favored by 7-points. Now they’re laying less than that at home. Orlando is 15-24 SU on the road with an average differential of minus -1.7PPG. Boston has the 8th best home point differential in the league at +7.2PPG. The C’s are a team that can win it all this year, the Magic are not. Lay the points!

ASA play on: Brooklyn Nets +7 over Milwaukee Bucks, 5PM ET – The thought process for this game is pretty straight forward. The Bucks literally have nothing left to play for with the best record in the NBA and home court throughout the playoffs. The Nets control their own destiny but need to win to get a spot in the Eastern Conference playoffs. We wouldn’t make this bet if we still didn’t have value in the number though and based on these teams recent meeting, we get it here. The Bucks were just favored by -1.5 points in Brooklyn earlier this week so the natural swing would have them -9 or -10 in this game. The line opened -8.5-points but dropped immediately to where it is now. That tells us one HUGE factor in this game. MVP Giannis won’t play. We know he wants too but the Bucks would be stupid to play him here, especially with a tender ankle. Milwaukee is already short handed with several starters and key contributors out with injuries so covering any kind of spread is going to be tough. Plus, the Bucks are off a big come from behind road win in Philly AND just beat this Nets team earlier in the week. Brooklyn in the way more desperate team here and worth a bet.

ASA play on: @Charlotte Hornets +5.5 over Toronto Raptors, 7PM ET – The Bucks win last night have assured Milwaukee the best record in the East and overall NBA so the Raptors main concern is being healthy going into the post season. Charlotte still has an outside shot at making the playoffs but essentially needs to win out and get help from other teams. These same two teams just met a few weeks ago and the Raptors were favored by 11.5 points at home. The Hornets won that game 115-114. As you can see the line adjustment here by the oddsmakers is too great. Based on that last game the Hornets should be a slight favorite here. Revenge doesn’t work here for Toronto as it’s a meaningless game to them. Charlotte has been very good at home this year with a 24-15 SU record and a home differential of +4PPG. The Hornets have won and covered two straight as a home dog as they recently beat Boston at home as a 4-point dog and San Antonio as a 4-point dog. Charlotte is also 4-1 SU at home their last five games and the one loss was by 4-points to Philly. Toronto has won 5 straight games, so their sense of urgency is not the same as it is for Charlotte. The value in the line is key here along with the team that is more desperate. Grab the points!

ASA play on: OVER 228 Cleveland Cavaliers @ Sacramento Kings, 10PM ET – These two teams clearly have nothing left to play for so expect a lack of effort on the defensive end of the court tonight. That means plenty of good opportunities on the offensive end of the court and lots of scoring here. These two teams have not been good defensively to begin with as the Kings rank 19th in the NBA in defensive efficiency while the Cavs are dead last. If we look at the last five games the Kings are allowing 1.233 points per possession (29th) while the Cavs are giving up 1.242PPP which is last. Obviously, this proves our point on how these defenses are trending with nothing to play for. Sacramento is allowing over 119PPG their last five games; the Cavs are giving up 122.6PPG. On the season the Cavs average 87.7 field goal attempts per game but in their last three games they are averaging 94 attempts per game which leads to more scoring here, especially against a Kings D that lacks motivation. Sacramento just played three games against playoff teams from the West but prior to that had played two games against teams similar to the Cavs (Pelicans, Mavericks) and those games finished with 239 and 246 total points. Expect a fast-paced game with plenty of great shot opportunities which leads to an EASY OVER!

ASA UNDER 238 Philadelphia 76ers @ Atlanta Hawks, 7:30PM ET – At first glance you might want to be the Over here, but the numbers support Under the total. These two teams just met in Philly and combined for 256 total points so Over bettors will want to go that route. The Sixers are without Embiid here and potentially Jimmy Butler too. Those two players combined for 52 points in the most recent meeting. That’s a ton of points the 76ers will have to replace on the offensive end of the court.  Atlanta is coming off a game in San Antonio last night which is significant as the Hawks games average just 224 total points per game when Atlanta is not rested. That’s dramatically lower than their season average of 231 total points per game. The Hawks offense has slowed in their last three games as they’ve scored 111, 122 (in regulation vs. the Bucks) and 98 points respectively. The 76ers are essentially locked into the 3rd seed in the East so It’s more important to get rest and stay healthy which means different rotations and unfamiliar lineups together on the floor. That adds up to less scoring. The Sixers also have Milwaukee on deck, so I doubt they’ll be 100% focused on Atlanta tonight, even though the Hawks recently beat them. Even if we look at basic season averages the Hawks games at home average 234 total points while Philly averages 227 on the road. Both numbers are much lower than the posted number tonight. When we crunch the numbers with our math model we project just 229 total points in this contest. BET UNDER!

ASA play OVER 219 Denver Nuggets @ Golden State Warriors, 10”30PM ET –A big factor in the number movement tonight is the pace of play as both teams are playing much slower than normal at this time. In their last five games the Warriors are currently 26th in pace, while Denver is 28th.  That pace of play has forced the oddsmaker to over-correct this total and the value clearly lies with the OVER. In fact, these same two teams met less than a month ago and the Total on that game was 235 which means nearly 15-points of adjustment? You’ve heard the term buy low and sell high which is exactly what we are doing tonight. In the game on March 8th these two teams combined for 227 points. Denver is coming off one of their worst offensive showings of the season and should rebound here with a much better showing. The Warriors defense isn’t what it has been in the past as they currently rank 15th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.10 points per possession. Offensively though the Warriors are the best in the NBA with an offensive efficiency at averages 1.161PPP and 117.7 points per game. Denver is a top 10 defensive team in the NBA but also the 5th best offensively when it comes to efficiency ratings. The Nuggets are shooting nearly 47% on the season as a team and average 111PPG. The value in the number is the key here and it also helps that 12 of the last sixteen meetings have gone Over the number. This game finishes with 228 or more points. BET OVER!

ASA play on: Portland Trailblazers -3.5 over Minnesota Timberwolves, 80PM ET – The Blazers are battling for the 3rd or 4th seed in the West and home court in the first round of the playoffs. Minnesota is gearing up for the offseason and a little R&R.  Portland lost a key piece to their team when center Nurkic was lost for the season due to a horrific leg injury but Enes Kanter was brought in as an insurance policy if something like this happened. Without Nurkic the Blazers still outrebound Detroit 68-52 in their last outing despite losing. Kanter delivered 20 points and 15 rebounds in 34 minutes for his first double-double since taking over the starting spot. Kanter isn’t Nurkic, but the dropoff isn’t as dramatic as you might think. Minnesota has their own injuries to worry about. The Wolves are without Rose, Teague, Gibson and Covington who are all major contributors. Portland had won 8 of nine games before a loss in Detroit and we expect a bounce back here. The Blazers are 18-9 SU off a loss this year and considering the low nature of this number we expect a SU and ATS win. Portland has some poor early season road numbers but have since improved to 9th in overall road differential at -.1PPG. Again, that’s marginal considering tonight’s circumstances. Portland is on a 10-3 ATS road run and we like them here against a team like Minnesota that has called it a season.

ASA play on: Indiana Pacers -5.5 over Detroit Pistons, 7PM ET – We like the line and money indicators early on here and feel the move on the line is to attract Piston’s backers. We won’t bite and will side with the more desperate Pacers at home off a loss at home. Both are fighting for seeding position in the East but the Pacers are in 5th right now, tied with Boston who holds the tie breaker over them. Despite how Detroit is currently playing, we can’t ignore their 14-24 SU road record or their -3.4PPG differential which was 19th worse in the NBA. Indiana has been fantastic at home this season with a 28-10 SU record and the 3rd best home point differential of +8.9PPG. Indiana played poorly in their last home game against the Magic and will bounce back here. The Pacers are 10-4 SU at home this year off a loss, 3-1 when at home and off a home loss. Earlier this season the Pacers beat the Pistons at home by 37 and we feel they win this game big again, especially considering the Pistons will be without Blake Griffin in this one.

ASA Washington Wizards +11 @ Denver Nuggets, 9PM ET – Washington is officially eliminated from the playoffs, but they continue to play hard with Bradley Beal leading the way. It certainly helps that a few newcomers from the trade deadline are still trying to impress coaches and management. The Wiz are coming off a game a few nights ago in Utah and took the Jazz to the wire before losing 124-128. If they bring that same energy tonight this will be another easy cover. These same two teams recently met in Washington with the Nuggets winning by 5-points. Denver is in a tough spot here as they are coming off two huge road games in Houston and at OKC and have MUCH bigger games on deck with Golden State and then San Antonio. The Nuggets are battling the Warriors for the #1 seed in the West, so they’ll get caught looking ahead to that game, especially since they recently beat this same Wizards team. Denver isn’t playing their best basketball of the season right now with an average negative differential of -6.4PPG in their last five games. Washington has covered 4 of the last five in the series and get another cover here. Grab the points.

ASA 10* play on: Detroit Pistons -5 over Portland Trailblazers, 7:00PM ET – These same two teams just met in Portland where the Blazers won by 5. Detroit was in the middles of a 5-game road trip while the Blazers had 2 days rest. Now the roles have flipped. The Pistons are home and rested, Portland is off a game last night and playing their 3rd game in four nights.  The Pistons recently played three of the best teams in the West on the road (Denver, Golden State and this Portland team) and lost all three by a combined 15 points. Prior to that road trip, the Pistons had won 9 straight home games with 4 of those nine victories coming against other playoff teams and they just beat another in the Magic. Detroit is 24-13 SU at home on the season with a +2.9-point differential. Portland had center Nurkic in their most recent win over Detroit, but he has since been lost for the season with a horrible leg injury. Without Nurkic and another starter McCollum the Blazers depth will be tested in this back-to-back situation. Detroit is playing with revenge and have done extremely well at home against teams with winning records (6-0 ATS run). Portland now 0-4 ATS streak when playing without rest. Lay the points!

ASA play on: UNDER 228.5 Golden State Warriors @ Minnesota Timberwolves, 8PM ET – Minnesota was in the top half of the league in scoring this season but in their last eight games they’ve averaged just 106PPG which is six full points less than their season average. The Wolves are an ‘average’ team in terms of pace of play at 100.1 possessions per game and they’ve shot just 43.5% their last five games. Scoring will be tough tonight against a Warriors team ramping up their defense for a run at another Championship. Golden State has allowed an average of 108PPG (3-points less than reg ssn) their last five games and held foes to just 43.2% shooting. The Warriors are the 10th fastest paced team in the NBA this season but in their last five games they are the 25th slowest. These two teams met just 10-days ago, and the Vegas number was 229.5 and the two teams combined for just 224 total points. The number on this game hasn’t been adjusted enough based on that previous outcome. Minnesota has a ton of injuries (Rose, Teague, Gibson and Covington) and the current roster just isn’t capable of scoring 115 here. Not that this matters much (we base our decisions on stats not trends) but these two teams have stayed below the Total in 25 of their last thirty three meetings.

ASA play on: Detroit Pistons -3 over Orlando Magic, 7:00PM ET – Orlando is off a HUGE win over Miami which vaulted them into 8th in the East and we expect a letdown here. In the game against the Heat, the Magic shot below 42% as a team but had a huge rebounding advantage over Miami. They won’t have that advantage here against a Pistons team that is 13th in the league in total rebounds. We laid -4.5 points the other night with the Heat who were 8th in the East at the time, so we’ll lay less points with a better Detroit team at home and off a few losses. The Pistons just played three of the best teams in the West (Denver, Golden State and Portland) and lost all three by a combined 15 points. Prior to their current road trip, the Pistons had won 9 straight home games with 4 of those nine victories coming against other playoff teams. Another indicator of line value here is the spread on two of those home games when they were favored by -1.5 points over the Raptors and -2.5 over the Pacers. Granted, the Magic are hot right now, but they’re not nearly as good as those two team but are in a similar price range. Orlando has won six in a row but four of those W’s came against Cleveland, Atlanta, New Orleans and Memphis. Orlando won 5 of their last six games at home and now travel to Detroit who is 23-13 SU at home on the season with a +2.9-point differential.  Prior to this current hot streak, the Magic had lost 4 straight on the road and are 2-5 SU their last seven away with all five losses coming by more than tonight’s spread.

ASA 10* play on: UNDER 230 Washington Wizards @ Phoenix Suns, 10PM ET – These two teams have nothing to play for and we feel it shows tonight, especially on the offensive end of the court. Even when we look at general, all season numbers we see the Wizards games averaged 231 total points per game while the Suns games averaged 223PPG. Washington has scored 108 or less points offensively in 4 of their last five games and 113 or less in all five if you exclude OT in the game against the Bulls. The main reason is a much slower pace of play in their last five games. During the rest of the season the Wiz were the 9th fastest paced team in the NBA but in their last five they are 23rd slowest. Washington is also the 8th worst offensive efficiency team in the league over that 5-game span. Phoenix has really dipped offensive of late as they’ve scored 103 or less points in 6 of their last seven games. Over a 5-game span the Suns have the worst offensive efficiency rating in the NBA as they score just 1.029 points per possession. Phoenix and their opponent have totaled more than 230 points in just 2 of their last twelve games. Washington and their foe have totaled 230 or more points in just 2 of their last eight games but one of those was an OT affair. Based on the math and current trending numbers this game finishes with just 218 total points. BET UNDER!

ASA play on: OVER Boston Celtics @ Cleveland Cavaliers, 7PM ET – There was a big line move on this game as the opening total was quite a bit higher than the current number, but it wasn’t money that moved the line, it was injuries. The Celtics will sit Kyrie Irving tonight (maybe Tatum) but that shouldn’t have as big an impact on the move as it did. The reason being, the depth of the Celtics has proven to be a problem all season long as they simply have too many great players and not enough minutes to go around. Irving’s back up Rozier is a starter for at least half of the teams in the NBA. Cleveland is playing well right now and a lot of that has to do with two things. One, the return of Kevin Love who is coming off a 20-point, 19-rebound game on Sunday in Milwaukee.  Love has seven double-doubles in his 15 games since returning from a foot injury. Two, the emergence of Cavs rookie Collin Sexton. Sexton has scored 20+ points in 8 of his last nine games. The trending numbers that support our Over wager here are obvious. On the year, the Cavs are the 2nd slowest paced team in the NBA, 26th worst offensive efficiency team and last in defensive efficiency. But if you look at their most recent five games (with Love) they are playing the same tempo, but they are averaging 1.174 points per possession (9th) and are allowing 1.207 point per possession which is worse than their (worst) league average. In other words, scoring much more efficiently and allowing more points rather easily. Boston has similar trending numbers: 14th reg ssn in pace at 99.6, 7th last five games at 100.7. Offensive efficiency numbers are slightly lower their last five games but it’s a consistent number. Defensively is where the Celtics have struggled. On the season they are the 7th best defensive efficiency unit allowing just 1.078PPP but in their last five games they allow 1.175PPG which is 24th in the NBA. The Cavaliers have played two games against a Bucks team that is like the Celtics and Vegas posted numbers of 223 and 225.5 on those two contests. Boston has had 16 straight games where the Total has been 220 or higher. The value in the number is too great to pass on. Bet OVER!

ASA play on: UNDER 226 Brooklyn Nets @ Portland Trailblazers, 10PM ET – There are some indicators here that favor the Under as it pertains to public money and line fluctuation and we like what we are seeing. Brooklyn is coming off three straight games against teams from the West that like to play fast. The Kings are 2nd fastest, Lakers 3rd and Clippers are 8th in tempo in the NBA. That’s not the case with the Blazers that rank 18th in that category. That means the home team is going to dictate the style of play here. Recently when the Blazers have played two road games against similar teams to the Blazers the two games resulted in just 212 and 204 total points. In their last five games the Nets are shooting under 42% as a team but holding opponents to less that 44%. In their last five games the Nets and their opponents are averaging 222 total points. The Blazers in that same 5 game stretch are totaling 224 points. Portland prefers to play slower at home as they are the 10th slowest team when playing at home. In their most recent home game, the Blazers and Pistons combined for 229 total points, but the two teams attempted just 163 total field goal attempts which is 15 less than league average. The Nets are now on a 5-0 Under run when coming off a win while Portland is on an 8-1 Under run against teams with an above .500 record. These same two teams met in Brooklyn just over a month ago and combined for 212 total points. The bet here is UNDER!

ASA play on: UNDER 219.5 San Antonio Spurs @ Boston Celtics, 7:30PM ET – This game has meaning for both teams as the Celtics are battling for home court in the first round of the playoffs but currently sit 5th in the East. San Antonio sits safely in 8th in the West but are only a game out of 5th which would mean going to Portland instead of say Denver or Golden State. With plenty to play for we expect a defensive game which results in a lower total. We’re seeing the Spurs settling into playoff intensity as they’ve now gone Under the total in 8 of their last ten games. In their last six games the oddsmakers have adjusted their totals to 221 or less four times. San Antonio is 22nd in the league in pace of play on the season averaging 98.5 possessions per game. In their last five games the Spurs tempo has slowed even more to 96.8 possessions per game which is 5th slowest. Boston has also preferred to play slower all season long with the 17th slowest tempo in the NBA. The Celtics have the 6th best overall defensive efficiency rating for the season as they allow just 1.077 points per possession. The Spurs haven’t been great defensively on the season, but they have been their last five games allowing just 1.057PPG over that stretch of games. In their last three home games against similar teams from the Western Conference (Denver, Houston and Portland) the Celtics and those opponents have scored 219, 219 and 189 total points. When playing without rest this season the C’s games have averaged just 214.2PPG. After blowing an 18-point lead last night the Celtics will be much more focused on the defensive end of the court. The bet here is UNDER THE TOTAL!

ASA play on: #528 Portland Trailblazers -5 over Detroit Pistons, 10PM ET – First we’ll apologize for an abbreviated analysis today. The NCAA Tourney has us extremely busy. But rest assured we’ve done all the work as usual with our handicapping process but are limited with time for write ups. Both teams have plenty to play for as they battle for better position in their perspective conferences. We are aware of Detroit’s current 15-5 SU record but they haven’t been a good road team all season long with a 14-21 SU away mark. The Pistons road point differential of -3.2PPG is 16th in the league and a big reason why is their offensive struggles away from home (23rd in road OEFF ratings). Portland has been fantastic at home this season with a 27-9 SU record and an average differential of +8.2PPG which is 4th best in the league. They have the 2nd best offensive efficiency rating on their home court this season, averaging 1.170 points per possession. Taking a closer look at Detroit’s road results we see they’ve struggled against good teams on the road. Against playoff teams recently they lost at Miami by 34, Brooklyn by 28, San Antonio by 12, at Boston by 8 and at Utah by 6-points. Portland has had some impressive home wins lately against some of the best teams in the West and most recently beat a Pacers team at home by 8 who is rated better than the Pistons in the East. Even without McCollum we like the Blazers to get a double-digit home win here. Lay it!

ASA play on: #589/590 UNDER 218 Detroit Pistons @ Phoenix Suns, 10PM  - During the regular season the Pistons are the 4th slowest paced team in the NBA but in their last five games they are actually THE slowest paced at just 93.9 possessions per game. On the year the Pistons have the 11th best defensive efficiency rating while Phoenix is 29th or second to last. But the Suns have been much better defensively in their past five games allowing just 1.113 points per possession which is 15th best in the league. Detroit has really struggled to shoot the basketball of late as they are averaging below 40% their previous five games. In eight of their last ten games the Pistons have allowed 108 or less points to opponents. The Suns have allowed 111 or less in 5 of their last nine. The Pistons just allowed 126 points to the Cavs so their will be a concentrated effort to be much better on that end of the court. In fact, when the Pistons have allowed 125 or more points in a game, in their next contest the Under is 6-1. Phoenix has also played Under in 5 straight home games. The bet here is UNDER the total.

ASA play on: Washington Wizards -2.5 over Chicago Bulls, 8PM ET – Somebody in the Bulls front office needs to sit down head coach Jim Boylan and ask him what the hell he is doing? The Bulls currently sit a game and a half in front of the Cavs for a better chance at securing a better pick in this year’s draft. In any event, the Bulls return home off a 3-game road trip and are off a win in their previous game so expect a letdown here. Chicago has NO home court advantage as they own the worst point differential in the league on their home court of -8.7PPG. Chicago is the least efficient offensive team in the league at home and the 2nd worst in defensive efficiency. Granted the Wiz have been a horrible road team but they are still mathematically alive for the 8th seed in the East and have something to play for. Washington comes into this game off a loss and a horrendous shooting night by Bradley Beal so expect a concentrated effort here. Washington has won 3 of their last five games overall and are a healthier unit coming into this game. We like the added incentive of a few former Bulls (Portis and Parker) who were traded to the Wizards at the trade deadline, facing their previous team. Both have played much better since the deal and both were instrumental in a 9-point win here earlier this month. Take the better team with more to play for in this match up and lay the short number.

ASA play on: LA Clippers -4.5 over Indiana Pacers, 10:30PM ET – We’re not being stubborn here, we’re betting numbers and value, and the best value on the board today is the Clippers. Yes, we’ve lost with them twice in a row, but they had both games covered until very late in the game before the Bulls and Nets got back door covers. The Clippers are playing great right now and look like a tough out in the Western Conference playoffs this year. They have won 10 of their last 13 games, including 6-1 L7. In their last five games, which includes a loss, they have an average point differential of +4.4PPG. Those ten wins in this current run for the Clippers have come by an average of 12.1PPG and ALL but one of those victories were by more than tonight’s spread. The Pacers are in a tough spot here coming off a close loss in Portland last night, playing their 3rd in four nights (which includes a game in the higher altitude of Denver) and 4th game in six days. Their last three games have come against the much tougher Western Conference too. Both teams are fighting for a better seeding spot in their Conference, but the Clippers have been at home, are rested and should be focused off two straight close wins. The Pacers 22nd ranked road defensive efficiency unit catches up to them here against a Clippers offense that ranks 1st in efficiency their last five games.

ASA play UNDER 221 Denver Nuggets vs Boston Celtics, 7:30PM ET – With money and tickets coming in on the Over here, yet the line fluctuated down, we will bet Under here. The line was set higher than it should have been from the opener as the Celtics have played five straight higher scoring games. But those five games have come against the Hawks, Kings (twice), Lakers and Clippers who are all ranked top 10 in pace. The tempo tonight is going to be much slower as the Nuggets are the 5th slowest paced team in the NBA at 97.9 possessions per game. In their last five games the Nugs are playing even slower yet at just 94.5 possessions per game. Both teams are top ten in offensive efficiency but also top 11 in defensive efficiency. Prior to their most recent two home games against the fast-paced Kings and Hawks (1st and 2nd) the Celtics had played three straight Unders at home against Houston, Washington and Portland. Houston and Portland have some similar characteristics as Denver tonight. These two teams average fewer total points per game overall on the season, Denver averages 217 total points per game on the road while Boston averages 222 at home.  The Nuggets have stayed under in 6 straight road games against the good teams in the league with a winning percentage of .600 or better. When these same two teams met in early November the total was set at 209.5 so you can see for yourself the value with tonight’s number. BET UNDER!

ASA play on: LA Clippers -6 over Brooklyn Nets 9PM ET – We were counting the Clippers as a “winner” in their last game against the Bulls, as they were up 15-points late, but then let the backdoor cover happen. Count that as a lesson learned which won’t happen here against the Nets, especially with the smaller number. Prior to their two most recent games, the Clippers had won 5 games in a row by an average of 14PPG, and they’ve hit 6 of their last seven, all by a margin of more than today’s spread. The Clippers are 16th in home point differential at +3.4PPG, the 10th most efficient home offense but 23rd in home defensive efficiency ratings. LA has been good their past five games as they rank 7th in the league in average point differential (even with a loss in the mix) at +5.4PPG. They also have the best offensive efficiency numbers in that same 5-game span as they average 1.184 points per possession. The Nets are in a touch scheduling situation here as they played last night in Utah and will be playing their 3rd straight road game against a playoff team from the West. Brooklyn was a +7.5-point dog in OKC, plus 9 in Utah and those two teams are within two games of the Clippers in the West. The Nets lost both games by 12 and 16 points. Brooklyn is pretty much entrenched in the 6th – 8th seed in the East so this game isn’t as important to them. The Clippers on the other hand are just 2.5 games out of the 4th seed in the West which would be home court in the first round so they have way more to play for. Brooklyn is just 3-9 SU, 2-10 ATS when playing the second night of a back-to-back this season

ASA play on: #514 Denver Nuggets -7 over Indiana Pacers, 9PM ET – At first glance this line looks high considering the Pacers are a top 4 seed in the East and fighting for their playoff seeding lives. But Denver also has a lot to play for as they sit just one game behind the Warriors for the top overall record in the West. The Nuggets are one of a handful of teams that can win the NBA Championship and as they have 3rd best offensive efficiency numbers in the league and are 12th in DEFF. Their efficiency numbers at home are even better yet and they win on their home court by an average of 11.2PPG which is the second-best number in the league. The Pacers have some solid road efficiency numbers and an average road differential of -.3PPG which is 9th best but that clearly won’t get a cover today in Denver. When we evaluate the spread on this game, we can compare the Pacers last two road games in Philly and Milwaukee where they were +6 and +10 but got blown out in each. Denver is coming off a very close home win over a bad Dallas team which should serve as a wake-up call here. The Nuggets are 15-8 SU against the East this season and against comparable Eastern Conference teams at home they’ve beaten Philly by 16, Toronto by 8 and Boston by 9. They did lose to the Bucks at home, but Milwaukee is on another level. In usual fashion we will play contrarian here and go opposite of the money. BET DENVER MINUS!

ASA play on: UNDER 231 Golden State @ Oklahoma City Thunder, 8:30PM ET – This is clearly the biggest game on the card today and a marquee matchup between two Titans in the Western Conference. The number set by Vegas is significantly higher than what our math model suggests which is not a huge surprise considering the two teams involved. This will be the third time these two teams are meeting this season and the first two clashes had Totals set of 220 and 223. Both games stayed Under those numbers with combined points of 208 and 218. These are two of the top 10 teams in terms of pace of play this season BUT in their last five games both are playing slower than season averages. That change in style has led to 6 straight Unders for Golden State and 8 of their last ten. Oklahoma State is on a 4 game Under run and have stayed below the Total in 8 of their last ten. Golden State has been a defensive juggernaut the past few seasons, but their defensive efficiency has dropped off significantly this season. Even with that dip though, they are 12th in the league in points allowed per game on the road this year. OKC has the 4th best defensive efficiency numbers in the league as they allow just 1.063 points per possession.  The Thunder’s last three home games have finished with 212, 194 and 204 total points being scored. Without scoring machine Kevin Durant in this game for the Warriors we expect to see a scoring dip for the Warriors (scored just 106 in Houston last game). The Under is 5-1 the last six meetings between these two teams on this floor, 17-5 Under the last 22. The bet here is UNDER!

ASA play on: LA Clippers -8.5 over Chicago Bulls, 10:30PM ET – We successfully played against the Clippers in their last game against the Blazers as they were in a tough scheduling situation. Now with rest, we expect them to return to the form that saw them win 5 games in a row by an average of 14PPG. Included in that five-game winning streak the Clippers beat a similar team to the Bulls, the Knicks, by 21-points when they were favored by 10. The Bulls were officially eliminated from the post season in their last game and it clearly looks like they’ve quit on the season. The Bulls are just 1-5 SU their last six games and the last three losses have come by 8, 23 and 16 points. Their most recent defeat was at home to the Lakers by 16 and the other LA team isn’t nearly as good as this one. Chicago has the 6th worst road point differential in the NBA at minus -7PPG, rank 28th in offensive efficiency on the road and 17th in road defensive efficiency. The Clippers are 16th in home point differential at +3.3PPG, the 10th most efficient home offense but 23rd in home defensive efficiency ratings. LA has been really good their past five games as they rank 2nd in the league in average point differential (even with a loss in the mix) at +8.2PPG. They also have the 2nd best offensive efficiency numbers in that same 5-game span. The Bulls have not covered a came in their last six road contests against a team with a winning percentage greater than .600 and will nothing to play for here, the Bulls get beat by double-digits. Lay the points with the Clippers.

ASA play on: Indiana Pacers -1 over Oklahoma City Thunder, 7PM ET – This isn’t a good spot for the Thunder as they are off a game last night and have a HUGE game on deck with the Warriors. OKC was lucky to cover last night as the Nets outplayed them for 85% of the game but didn’t get calls late. The Thunder took a lead with 6-minutes to play which then pushed to double-digits and eventually a cover. The Thunder starters logged big minutes last night and OKC’s depth is a concern playing back to back nights. Both teams are fighting for playoff positioning, but the Pacers situation is a little more desperate as they are just 2-3 SU their past five games. The Pacers have the 3rd best home point differential in the NBA at +8.7PPG which can be attributed to their #1 ranked defensive efficiency unit at home allowing just 1.015 points per possession. You can see for yourself the value in this line as the last time these two teams met in Oklahoma City, the Thunder were favored by 1-point. It looks very easy to take the Thunder on the road here as they are one of the best teams in the West but we’re not about to bet the way Vegas wants us to. Play Indiana at home minus the points.

ASA play on: UNDER 230 Golden State Warriors @ Houston Rockets, 9:30PM ET – We hope these same two teams meet in the Playoffs as it will be a fantastic series. In one of our more recent picks we talked about betting Houston right now to win the NBA Finals. The lessons learned from last season will have them ready and they’re as dynamic as any team in the NBA. Bet that Future wager before you lose all value. On to tonight’s bet. We don’t see these two teams reaching this O/U number tonight. The Rockets are one of the slowest paced teams in the NBA this season, the slowest in the NBA the past 5 games at just 95.2 possessions per game. Golden State is not as fast as most think ranking 10th overall in the league. In the most recent meeting these two teams combined to score exactly 230 total points in Golden State. When they last played in Houston though they totaled just 193 total points. Tonight’s game is going to have a playoff feel to it and last year in their 7 game playoff series these two teams AVERAGED 206PPG. Without Kevin Durant in the lineup the Warriors aren’t going to be their fluid offensive selves. Bet UNDER!

ASA play on: Brooklyn Nets +7 over Oklahoma City Thunder, 7PM ET – The public money has flowed in on the Thunder yet the oddsmakers are reluctant to move this line any higher than it is. That tells us they over-compensated on the Thunder from the get-go. Brooklyn has earned their spot in the East with a great second half of the season surge with a 27-15 SU streak since early January. Most recently the Nets have won 4 straight games overall and 3 of their last four on the road. OKC has hit a hiccup here in the final stretch of the regular season which has seen them go 4-6 SU their last ten games. Granted, the injury to Paul George certainly didn’t help. But the Thunder haven’t been their usual self at home with a 2-2 SU record their last four games but the two wins came by a combined 5-points. The Thunder home differential is +6.5PPG which is 9th best in the league. Brooklyn is around ‘average’ or 16th in the NBA with a road differential of -2.7PPG. The Nets differentials in their past five games are outstanding as they are +9.2PPG, have shot over 45% as a team and held foes to under 38% shooting which is fantastic. OKC has struggled shooting it of late as they’ve hit just 42.3% in their last five games. The Nets have covered 5 of the last six here and will grab the cash as a dog in this setting.

ASA play on: Portland Trailblazers -2 over LA Clippers, 10:30PM ET -  Let’s first address the fact that the Clippers are playing well and clearly haven’t quit since the trading deadline. It’s a testament to Doc Rivers and his staff keeping this team together and playing for each other. But we must fade them in this situation. The Clippers are coming off a blowout win over the Celtics last night and now face a stiff test against the Blazers. Portland has fallen from the 3rd seed in the West to the 5th (no home court in the first round) and have just a 2-game lead on the Clippers. Portland is just a half-game behind the Thunder for 4th in the Western Conference. The Blazers recently had a solid road trip going 6-2 SU with quality wins over playoff bound: Boston, Philadelphia, Brooklyn and Charlotte who is currently 1.5 games out in the East. The Clippers have gotten two good wins at home in their last two games over Boston and OKC but prior to that their three most recent home wins were against the Knicks, Mavs and Suns who have a combined 56-145 SU record. Portland comes into this game with 2 days rest while the Clippers played last night so fatigue becomes a factor here. The Clippers are just 3-5 ATS as a dog in this price range while the Blazers are 7-4 ATS as a small favorite. The Trailblazers are 5-1 ATS the last six meetings and get a much-needed win tonight.

ASA play on: UNDER 226 Boston Celtics @ LA Clippers, 10:30PM ET – The betting markets came in with money on the Over here but the oddsmakers adjusted their number down, inviting more Over tickets. We will play contrarian and invest UNDER! The Clippers are 4-1 Under their last five games and those five games came against some of the fastest paced teams in the league. L.A. played OKC, LAL and Sacramento who are top 4 teams in the NBA when it comes to tempo. The Celtics come into this contest with the 18th slowest paced offensive in the league and that’s led to 6 Unders and just 1 Over in their last seven games. In their most recent game against the Lakers, the two teams combined for 227 Total points, but again that was versus a faster Lakers team that doesn’t play defense. The Celtics have the 5th best defensive efficiency rating in the NBA allowing just 1.067 points per possession. Boston has played 4 straight games against either fast paced or higher scoring teams and the highest output was 227. The Clippers have held their last five opponents to an average of 41.4% shooting and 108PPG. With both teams jockeying for playoff position we expect a tighter game than usual. BET UNDER!

ASA play on: UNDER 223 Detroit Pistons @ Brooklyn Nets, 7:30PM ET – The Pistons are the 26th slowest paced team on the season while Brooklyn is 11th fastest. Both teams are 17th or worse in offensive efficiency and both are 14th or better in defensive efficiency. So how do you assume they’ll score more than the league average in total points tonight? We don’t! If we look at how these teams have done recently, we find the Nets have the 7th most efficient defense in their last five games while Detroit is 10th best. The Pistons scoring is up dramatically their last five game but let’s factor in their schedule. They’ve played the Bulls twice; Minnesota and Cleveland and those teams are 27th or worse in defensive efficiency their last five games. The Pistons are on a strong Over run right now at 8-2 their last ten but examine what those numbers were that Vegas set. Seven of those eight Overs had totals of 222 or less, meaning an over-correction on tonight’s game, especially with Detroit coming off a game where they put up 131. Brooklyn is a team that plays fast against fast teams, slow against slower teams. In recent games when the Nets have played similar teams (Heat, Spurs) to the Pistons they’ve totaled 205 and 186 points. When Detroit is playing without rest this season those games have averaged 212.7PPG and that’s about where this one ends up. BET UNDER!

ASA play on: #511 Houston Rockets -9 over Dallas Mavericks, 7PM ET – We’re going to give you some added advice with this bet Sunday and that’s a future bet on the Rockets to win it all this season. Don’t wait to bet it either as you’ll steadily lose value as the season wears on. The Rockets are playing lights out right now with a 7-game winning streak as they climb the standings in the West. The Rockets have been impressive with three straight double-digit wins over three of the best teams in the East. They also have a 6-point win in Golden State in this stretch of games. So even though we are laying a premium price on this game as a 9-point road favorite it’s justified. The Mavs look like they’ve called it a season with four straight losses and just one win in their last ten games. In their last nine losses all but one has come by 10 or more points. The Mavericks have beaten the Rockets twice this season, so they won’t take them for granted here. Houston is 4-1 ATS their last five meetings in Dallas. Lay the point with the Rockets today!

ASA 10* play on: #574 Minnesota Timberwolves -7 over Washington Wizards, 8PM ET – Are you asking yourself, why are the T’Wolves favored by 7-points in this matchup? We feel the number isn’t high enough and our computer analytics predict a double-digit win by Minnesota. Despite a disappointing overall season, the Wolves are 21-10 SU at home with a +/- differential at home of +5.4PPG (12th in NBA). They have some solid home wins of late over OKC by 11, Sacramento by 7, Houston by 10, LA Clippers by 10 and a 1-point loss to Denver. The Wolves home/road dichotomies are drastically different which is why they are an attractive bet here. The other part of the equation here is Washington on the road and playing without rest on the road for the second consecutive night. The Wiz are 9-25 SU away from home this season with a +/- differential of MINUS -8.3PPG WHICH IS 4TH WORST in the NBA. The Wolves will put up plenty of points here against a Wizards defense that is 28th in the NBA in road shooting percentage defense against and last in the league in points allowed per game away from home at 119.1PPG. This is also a quick revenge game for the Wolves as they were just beat in Washington by the Wizards 135-121 earlier this month. Washington is just 2-8 ATS the last 10 here and it gets a loss worse after tonight. Lay it with Minnesota.

ASA play on: #555 Utah Jazz -4.5 over Memphis Grizzlies, 8PM ET – We are going contrarian here, as we like to do, and bet against the hot Grizzlies who have covered 3 straight. In fact, we just bet on Memphis the other night when they covered against Portland but let’s examine that game which has solid indicators for our bet against them here. Portland was wrapping up a brutal stretch of 7 road games and were favored by -5.5 at Memphis. The Blazers led by 16-points in the game but ran out of gas late and Memphis grabbed the upset home win. Now Utah comes into this game, who we rank higher in our metrics, laying less than Portland was the other night. Plus, Memphis is coming off a satisfying win over Portland and in for a letdown. Memphis 16-17 SU at home on the season with an average differential of plus + .1PPG which is 22nd worse in the NBA. Their home offensive efficiency numbers are awful as they average just 1.051 points per possession – last in the NBA! Utah is 16-16 SU on the road this year but they have the 7th best road differential in the NBA at plus +.7PPG. The Jazz shoot it well on the road this year with the 9th best road field goal percentage at 46.4%. The Jazz have recently beat a hot New Orleans team on the road by 10, won in Denver by 7, lost in OT by 1 at OKC (one of best home courts in NBA) and lost by 7 at Golden State. Now they step WAY down in talent to face a ‘fat’ Grizzlies team. Memphis is 2-3 SU their last five at home with the wins against Portland (tough spot) and the fading Lakers. They lost to Chicago, the Clippers by 6 and San Antonio. Utah wins this game by double digits!

ASA play on: #547 Indiana Pacers +10.5 over Milwaukee Bucks, 8PM ET. Well, we hit two more NBA plays last night which adds to our incredible NBA 84% winning streak of 21-4. It just goes to show how dialed in our math model is right now. Tonight, the numbers are crunched, and we like the double-digits with Indiana over Milwaukee. Yes, we are aware of the Bucks average point differential which is best in the NBA at +9.1PPG overall, +12.8PPG at home but this is not a good spot for them. Milwaukee has lost two straight, which hasn’t happened all season, and most bettors will look at this game and say it’s a ‘bounce’ back situation for a good team. But we are contrarian here and see another angle to this game which is fatigue and pressure is starting to get to a young Bucks team. The Bucks have shot under 39% in their last two games and now face a Pacers team that is 5th in the NBA in defensive FG% against at 44.8%. The numbers are starting to catch up to Milwaukee which is evident in their 1-3 ATS run as a home double-digit chalk. Speaking of double-digits, the Pacers haven’t been a dog of 10 or more points this season. Indiana has the 6th best road point differential in the NBA at +.8PPG with a 17-14 SU road record. The Bucks own the best defensive efficiency number in the league, but Indiana is second and more than capable of keeping this game close throughout. Grab the points with the Pacers!

ASA  play on: Denver Nuggets -5.5 over LA Lakers, 10:30PM ET – We’ve said this exact same thing the past two games that we’ve played against the Lakers, but the LeBron charade is pretty much over. He is solely responsible for the Lakers demise this season. He clearly doesn’t have the leadership skills to command the respect of his teammates and it’s always been a matter of time before his teams see through him. I’m not saying he’s not one of the most gifted players in the league as he is. But his ego has gotten the best of him and it’s infected the rest of the team, coaching staff and organization. And now that he’s quit playing hard for the season this team is obviously done. It’s been easy money betting against Los Angeles, so we’ll do it again. According to our rankings we have Denver as a top 5 team in the league with an offensive efficiency rating that is 3rd best in the league, a defensive efficiency that is 11th. Even on the road they have solid efficiency numbers ranking in the top half of the league in both OEFF and DEFF despite a .500 overall road record. The Nuggets have the 7th best point differential in the league right now in their past five games at +4.4PPG. The Lakers are in a free-fall with a 10-20 SU record their last 30 games, 1-5 their last six. Since the return of LeBron from injury the Lakers defense has been one of the worst in the league. In their last five games the Lakers are allowing 1.143 points per possession which is 22nd in the NBA and have a negative differential of minus -5PPG. Denver comes into this game having lost three straight and will play at a peak level against the high-profile Lakers. Denver by a dozen or more!

ASA play on: #532 Detroit Pistons -5 over Minnesota Timberwolves, 7PM ET – We like the situation here to bet the home team Pistons for several reasons.  Minnesota is coming off a high-profile game last night against a division rival the OKC Thunder and are also playing their 3rd game in four nights. This will also be the Wolves 4th road game in their last five, 6th in their last eight. The Wolves are just 2-7 SU when playing without rest with a negative differential of nearly 4PPG. The Wolves are all but officially eliminated from the post season as they are 6-games back with 19 to play.  Detroit on the other hand is rested, playing well and fighting for the 6th seed in the East. The 6th spot is critically important to the Pistons as that would mean a potential first round matchup with the Pacers (if the season ended today). Detroit is 8-2 SU their last ten games and have won 5 straight at home by an average of 12.2PPG. Included in those five W’s are victories over the Raptors, Pacers and Nuggets. Detroit is looking at three very winnable games in a row but need to get this win tonight first. The Wolves have the 10th worst road differential in the NBA at minus -5.1PPG and a big reason why is their road defense which is 27th in defensive efficiency ratings allowing 1.161 points per possession. The Pistons have covered 7 in a row against the T’Wolves, make it 8!

ASA play on: Memphis Grizzlies +6 over Portland Trailblazers, 8PM ET – If you’ve followed us for any length of time you know how much we like to be on the ‘uglies’ or contrarian Sides in the NBA. A general rule of thumb we’ve lived by for the past 30 years is to not be on the team Vegas wants you to bet. The Blazers look way too good to be true in this match-up, so we’ll take the ugly Grizzlies at home plus the points. Memphis has a defensive minded backcourt with Avery Bradley and Mike Conley that can defend or neutralize the Blazers strength, Lillard and McCollum. Granted, the Grizzlies had a different roster at the time but two months ago when these two teams met in Portland the Blazers were essentially favored by the same number as today’s game. I could argue the Grizzlies are a better team after the trade for Bradley and Valanciunas. Portland is fighting for a top 4 placement in the West and have a much bigger game on deck with Oklahoma City AND this will be their 7th straight road game so how focused are they? The Blazers have a losing road record this season and a negative differential of -1.7PPG which is 13th in the league. Memphis has a losing home record on the season, but their average differential is minus -.2PPG which clearly gets us a cover here.  Despite a disappointing season the Grizzlies still have the 6th best defensive efficiency rating in the NBA and they can keep this game close throughout. The obvious bet here is Portland…SO TAKE MEMPHIS!

ASA play on: LA CLIPPERS +4 over LA Lakers, 10:30PM ET – I wouldn’t bet the Lakers with someone else’s money right now. Since LeBron tried to orchestrate the trade for Anthony Davis the team has gone in the tank. The drama that follows LeBron everywhere he goes is a HUGE distraction and he’s just not a player that others want to follow. A lot of talk, but he doesn’t back it up. His playoff intensity has been embarrassing on the defensive end of the floor and he hasn’t inspired the younger players to another level.  In their last five games the Lakers have a negative differential of -6.6PPG, have allowed an average of 121PPG on 48.7% shooting by foes. Four of those last five games have come against non-playoff teams New Orleans twice, Phoenix and Memphis. The Clippers on the other hand made a big move at the trade deadline but have not given up on the season. The Clips have a positive differential their last five games of +.8PPG and three of those five games were on the road against playoff caliber teams in Sacramento, Utah and Denver. The Clippers have covered 4 straight in the series and they’re clearly the team that is still playing hard. Grab the points with the Clippers.