Sports Picks & Predictions

Arizona St. has looked solid out of the gates with two big wins to open the season. The Sun Devils defeated Northern Arizona by 31 points opening weekend then took out Texas Tech last week by 13 points which was highlighted by an incredible eight-touchdown performance from Kalen Ballage. Digging a little deeper however shows that the wins were not as impressive as the scores show as Arizona St. won the yardage battle by just 31 and 40 yards respectively. While offensively the Sun Devils are a potent unit, the defense has been very unimpressive as they have allowed an average of 518.5 ypg which is No. 119 in the country and that will always leave the backdoor open. UTSA defeated Alabama St. in its opener and while it was only by 13 points, the Roadrunners won the yardage battle by 162 yards. They played well last week against Colorado St., losing by just 11 points and being outgained by only 93 yards and that was on the road. They went just 3-9 last season but a big reason for that was experience as they had just five total starters returning and that number jumps to 13 this season. While listed as questionable, UTSA running back Jarveon Williams is expected to play and that is big coming off a 1,000-yard rushing season a year ago. Going back, the Sun Devils are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game. 10* (108) Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners

Following its upset against Oklahoma in Week One, Houston is a legitimate playoff contender as there is not a whole lot standing in its way. The Cougars have a test here on the road and then not another one until a home game against Louisville in Week 12. And this one will be a test. The Cougars are big road favorites because of what already happened and the public is riding them yet again. Cincinnati is also off to a 2-0 start following a solid road win at Purdue last week and it has had this game circled for some time now. Last season, the Bearcats lost at Houston despite outgaining the Cougars 589-427 and they will be out for some payback as they feel they are getting no respect based on the Houston hype and the pointspread assigned to this one. The Bearcats have two solid situations on their side. First, we play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points they were a good passing team from last season with a completion percentage of .580 or better, with an experienced quarterback returning as starter. This situation is 28-7 ATS (80 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Second, we play against road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with three or more straight wins and also had a winning record. This situation is 36-11 ATS (76.6 percent) since 1992. Additionally, Houston is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 games after allowing six points or fewer while Cincinnati is 13-2 ATS in its last 15 games following a game with a turnover margin of +4 or better. 10* (104) Cincinnati Bearcats

This is a play on ARKANSAS ST. for our NCAAF Game of the Week. Both Arkansas St. and Auburn are coming off losses last week and while Auburn comes from the far superior conference, it is laying way too many points here. The Tigers lost at home against Clemson by just six points so that may be considered a moral victory but they were outgained 399-262 so the game was not as close as the final score indicated. Clemson is arguably the best team in the country so this is a big step down in class for Auburn but this is a horrible spot. Coming off that disappointing loss and with Texas A&M and LSU on deck, the Tigers will have a tough time getting up for this one. The offense is not powerful enough to cover a number this big especially facing a defense that could be the best in the Sun Belt Conference. That was not the case last week however as Arkansas St. got pummeled at home 31-10 to Toledo while getting outgained by 290 total yards. The biggest surprise of that defeat was that Arkansas St. was actually favored by four points and that was just the fifth loss at home since 2011, going 26-5 over this stretch and while the road has been not nearly as good, the Red Wolves are catching Auburn at the right time. They play at Utah St. next week so there is no lookahead and the Red Wolves are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. Meanwhile Auburn has covered just two of its last 12 home games. 10* (345) Arkansas St. Red Wolves

This is a play on GEORGIA SOUTHERN for our Saturday Supreme Annihilator. While there were plenty of upsets last week in college football, the biggest under the radar one was arguably South Alabama defeating Mississippi St. on the road as close to a four-touchdown favorite. The Jaguars rallied from a 20-7 deficit in the fourth quarter as they scored a touchdown with 57 seconds remaining and dodged a bullet when Mississippi St. junior Westin Graves missed a 28-yard field-goal attempt by hitting the left upright with six seconds remaining. This team has been pretty solid since entering the FBS but South Alabama will have a tough time this week. Georgia Southern has been even better since entering the FBS as it has gone 19-7 following its 54-0 romp over Savannah St. last week. The Eagles, which were the fourth best rushing team in the nation last year, started right where they left off as they rushed for 420 yards on 6.1 ypc and that should continue. South Alabama had one of the worst rushing defenses last season, giving up 221 ypg on 5.4 ypc and it allowed 239 yards on the ground last week. In the meeting last season, the Jaguars jumped out to a 7-0 lead but Georgia Southern closed the game out 55-10 and outgained South Alabama 489-74 on the ground. While the disparity may not be that big this time around, it should not be narrowed by too much which gives the Eagles a dominance at the line of scrimmage which leads to an easy cover. The Eagles are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game while the Jaguars are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games following a straight up win. 10* (375) Georgia Southern Eagles

As stated in a different analysis, Mississippi St. losing to South Alabama was probably the biggest of all of the upsets last week based on the pure talent disparity. While the Bulldogs lost a lot from last year, namely quarterback Dak Prescott, there is no excuse for a SEC from the SEC losing to a team from the Sun Belt Conference that has never had a winning season at the FBS level. While the rushing offense and rushing defense dominated at the line of scrimmage the line of scrimmage, the passing numbers were the difference but we will not have to worry about that in this matchup. South Carolina won a snoozer against Vanderbilt last Thursday 13-10 on a 55-yard field goal with just 35 seconds remaining. The Gamecocks allowed only 242 total yards but that came against one of the worst offenses in the country from a season ago. They will be tested more here both on the ground and through the air where Bulldogs quarterback Damian Williams was very sharp, going 20-28 although it resulted in just 143 yards. One thing is for sure, the Bulldogs are not going to take South Carolina for granted and we can give that credit to head coach Dan Mullin as they are 17-4 ATS in their last 21 home games against teams with a winning road record. Meanwhile the Gamecocks have covered just twice in their last eight games against teams with a losing record. Mississippi St. will be the hungrier team and even though these teams have not met since 2013, coach Mullin will have them know that Mississippi St. has dropped seven straight in this series, last win coming in 1999. 10* (364) Mississippi St. Bulldogs

This is a play on AKRON for our Saturday Enforcer. We often talk about letdowns and this is the perfect example of one as Wisconsin took down No. 5 LSU last week 16-14 at Lambeau Field so recovering from that should be next to impossible. Sure, the talent gap is pretty wide between these two teams but focus can go a long way and a spread like this only adds to that. After the win over the Tigers, the celebration was huge with Badger players doing the Lambeau Leap and like fans charging the floor in college hoops, it is a great go against spot. Akron had no issues with VMI last week and while things will not be nearly as easy, the linesmakers have done the work for us as the line difference between last week and this week is 53 points. Akron was looking another losing season straight in the face last year but rallied to win its final four games of the season to become bowl eligible and then went on to defeat Utah St. to claim it first ever bowl win. So the Zips have now won six straight games and while we are not calling for the outright win here, it is too many points to pass up with the situation at hand. Momentum goes a long way and the Akron program has plenty of that right so it can inspire a lot of confidence. The Badgers are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game while the Zips are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points. 10* (329) Akron Zips

We love to bet on good teams coming off subpar efforts because it carries with it excellent line value next time out. In this case, it is Florida which is coming off a pretty poor effort against a pretty bad and inexperienced Massachusetts team. The Gators won 24-7 so they clearly did not show up to play on both sides. The defense did its part by allowing just 187 total yards but the offense could must just 363 yards against a defense that allowed 448 ypg last season and brought back just five starters. There may have been a lookahead to this game and while it is just lowly Kentucky, the Gators surely have not forgotten the meeting from last season when they escaped in Lexington by a score of just 14-9. Overall, the Florida offense was pretty poor last season but was expected to much better this season with a lot of experience back and we should see the breakout here. Kentucky was defeated by Southern Mississippi as it was outscored 34-0 after blowing a 35-10 lead and those losses are sometimes the worst to bounce back from. The Wildcats were supposed to turn things around under head coach Mark Swoops but they have done anything but that as they have not had a winning season under him in three years and in his victories, the best win came against South Carolina in 2014 which went on to finish 7-6. The talent gap is too big here and this is where Kentucky has really struggles as the Wildcats are 7-21 ATS in their last 28 road games. 10* (352) Florida Gators

Kansas snapped a 15-game losing streak with a resounding 55-6 win over Rhode Island and it seemed like the Jayhawks had just won the Big XII Championship after watching the fans storm the field. It must have not known that Rhode Island was a 1-11 team from last season. Good for Kansas to snap that losing streak but now it looks to go 2-0 for the first time since 2011. As a matter of fact, that was the last time the Jayhawks have won consecutive games, going 0-8 in their last eight games following a victory. Wins over FBS teams has been rare as well as since 2011, Kansas is 10-51, half of those victories coming against teams from the FCS. The Bobcats lost a tough one in their opener as they fell to Texas St. in triple overtime. They led late but Texas St. sent the game into overtime with a field goal and eventually Ohio lost the game on a failed two-point conversion. The Bobcats are coming off a solid 8-5 season and they are expected to once again contend in the MAC East. Last year could have been a lot better but they were derailed with injuries and that actually helps them this year with the experience of a lot more players than they normally would have had. All of this makes the loss to Texas St. that much more baffling especially considering they were favored by 17 points. This game has seen a big line move as Ohio came in as the favorite but the line has shifted up to five points depending on what book. 10* (311) Ohio Bobcats

This is a play on RICE for our Saturday Afternoon Dominator. Army treated us well last Friday night as it went into Temple and won outright 28-13 as a two touchdown underdog. While it was a play on Army, it was more of a play against Temple which was completely overvalued after its spectacular season a year ago. The outright victory from the Black Knights was not expected but it certainly helps us this week with line value and for situational purposes. An adage brought up a lot is that teams are not as good as they looked in their last game and teams are not as bad as they looked in their last game so while that applies to Army, it also applies to Rice. The Owls got destroyed at Western Kentucky last week by a score of 46-14 but the Hilltoppers are expected to contend once again in C-USA. After three straight winning seasons and three straight bowl appearances, which was a first for the program, the Owls slipped to 5-7 last season after a 4-3 start. There should be plenty of motivation to get back to a bowl game and with 16 returning starters, third most in C-USA, Rice has the ability to succeed. Last week may not have shown that loss put them in a spot knowing it needs to bounce back, especially with a game against Baylor next Friday. This teams is a lot like the 2013 team that brought back 17 starters and won 10 games, something that had not happened since 2008. Army is a putrid 0-14 since 2011 following a victory and now it is laying double-digits against a team desperate for a win. No thanks. 10* (309) Rice Owls

This total looks to be on the high side considering the meeting last year had the closing over/under at 50.5 but it has jumped up for a reason. After a second straight losing season, head coach Scott Shafer was let go at Syracuse and the school brought in Dino Babers from Bowling Green which looks to be a great hire to make some changes for the good. First and foremost, he brings in a fast paced offense, something that Syracuse has not implemented in quite some time. It was on display last week against Colgate as the Orange racked up 554 total yards and they should have put up more than 33 points but struggled a bit on third down. Granted, it was only Colgate but it was a very positive sign compared to last season when they managed only 426 yards in their opener against Rhode Island, a team that went 1-11 at the FCS level. They will be facing a tougher defense here for sure but moving the ball will not be an issue, especially at home where the Louisville defense will not have the crowd behind them. The Cardinals decimated Charlotte last Thursday 70-14 as they racked up 663 total yards and while they will not be matching those numbers this week, the offense will not be slowed down much. The Syracuse defense is at a disadvantage from a talent perspective, which does not help its case and side of the ball is expected to struggle all season. Both offenses play at a high pace with mobile quarterbacks so we should see some offensive fireworks come Friday night. 10* Over (303) Louisville Cardinals/(304) Syracuse Orange

We have seen No. 3 and No. 5 go down already this weekend so Florida St. is on upset alert but the Seminoles should have no issues tonight. The Seminoles have been looking forward to this one since last season when they were beaten pretty soundly by Houston 38-24. Mississippi comes in as the No. 11 team in the nation and this is no longer a program that is going to sneak up on any team, especially one that will br vying for a National Championship. There is talk about how good the Rebels rushing defense is going to be and while that may be the case, the Seminoles are in fine shape with Dalvin Cook. Last season, Cook, who averaged 7.38 ypc, played six of the top 30 defenses in yards per carry: No. 1 Boston College, No. 6 Houston, No. 8 Louisville, No. 17 Florida, No. 20 Clemson and No. 29 South Florida. Florida St. has a great situation on its side as we play against teams in the first week of the season, after closing out last season with 3 or more straight spread covers, team that had a good record last season (60% to 80%) playing a team that had a winning record. This situation is 27-5 ATS (84.4 percent) since 1992. 10* (212) Florida St. Seminoles

This is a play on WYOMING for our SATURDAY ENFORCER. Last year was considered a down season for Northern Illinois as it won just eight games, the first time since 2009 it failed to win at least 11 games. The Huskies will once again contend for the MAC Championship but it will not be easy with the conference getting better as a whole. They did not end well last year with a 20-point loss to Bowling Green in the MAC Championship and then getting blown out 55-7 to Boise St. in the Poinsettia Bowl. This can certainly have them hungry heading into the season but there are still plenty of doubts, namely on the defense. Northern Illinois allowed 418 ypg which was the most since 2007 and while they return six starters, two big losses are in the front seven with two First Team All-MAC players gone. Wyoming had a miserable season last year as it went just 2-10 but there is optimism this year as the Cowboys welcome back 17 starters. The offense struggled last season but was extremely young and there are nine returnees on that unit. Junior running back Brian Hill was a major contributor for the Cowboys offense last season. He finished with 1,631 rushing yards (135.9 ypg, 5.8 ypc) and was a Doak Walker Finalist. While they averaged just 19 ppg, they will be better and have a chance to come out strong against a weak Huskies defense. Laramie is not an easy place for teams coming from the east to play based on the altitude and this team could be gassed late in the game. Wyoming falls into a solid situation where we play on Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that were a good passing team from last season with a completion rate of 58 percent or better, in non-conference games. This situation is 37-10 ATS (78.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (208) Wyoming Cowboys

This is a play on CLEMSON for our SATURDAY STAR ATTRACTION. This is the perfect game for Clemson to start with this season as a quality road win is just what it needs. The Tigers have some unfinished business to take care of after running the table with a 14-0 record but ultimately losing to Alabama in the BCS Championship. They are certainly going to out on a mission and with games on deck against Troy and South Carolina St., there will be no looking ahead here despite knowing the struggles of Auburn as this is a tough environment no matter what. The Clemson offense finished No. 11 overall and should be even better this season with eight starters back and numerous returnees on the two-deep chart. The defense will be the concern with only four starters back but it was still very solid last season despite bringing back only three starters. Additionally, a ton of players that did not start last year got quality playing time. Auburn went just 6-6 last season but was able to pull out a bowl win over Memphis to give it some positive momentum heading into this season. The offense had its worst year since 2012 as the Tigers averaged just 370 ypg which was down by 115 ypg from the previous year. The offense has thrived in the past with mobile quarterbacks but once again, they will not have that luxury as Sean White, more of a true drop back passer, won the starting job. That is not an ideal scheme against an aggressive Clemson defense that will be keying on stopping the run and blitzing from all angles. While this is the perfect opener for Clemson as mentioned, it is the worst possible opener for Auburn facing one of the best offenses in the nation while sorting out its defense with another new defensive coordinator. 10* (183) Clemson Tigers

This is a play on NEBRASKA for our SATURDAY SUPREME ANNIHILATOR. The first year under head coach Mike Riley was not a huge disappointment despite the 5-7 record. The Huskers were the most unfortunate team in the country as they had five last second losses including a loss on Hail Mary against BYU in their season opener which pretty much set the tone for the rest of the season. Despite a 5-7 record, they were invited to a bowl game because there were not enough qualified teams and they gladly accepted it. Nebraska defeated UCLA in the Foster Farms Bowl which was a big win to carry forward into this year. While winning the Big Ten may be a stretch, the Huskers will be contending for the West Division even though their three biggest obstacles are taking place on the road. Nebraska has 13 starters back led by an offense that returns starting quarterback Tommy Armstrong as well as its leading rusher and top six receivers. Fresno St. really struggled last season as it had five straight FBS losses to open the season and was never able to recover as it went just 3-9 after three straight winning seasons. The Bulldogs should take a step forward this season but it will likely be just a small step. The Bulldogs averaged a mere 178.3 passing ypg last season and will start a redshirt freshman, Chason Virgil, at quarterback. Overall, Fresno St. ranked No. 100 or higher in seven of nine major national statistical categories on offense and defense last season. On defense, it is definitely a rebuilding effort with only five returning starters and a new defensive coordinator. This is not a good sign for a team that finished No. 118 in the nation in scoring defense and No. 116 in rushing defense. The Bulldogs are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games while Nebraska is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 non-conference games. 10* (200) Nebraska Cornhuskers

This is a play on UL-LAFAYETTE for our GAME OF THE WEEK. After four straight 9-4 seasons for Louisiana, 2015 was a lot different. Last season was a major disappointment as the Cajuns failed to possess a winning record for the first time under head coach Mark Hudspeth so there should be a big rebound in Lafayette. The offense, despite having to replace its starting quarterback, should be better with All American candidate Elijah McGuire at running back. Taking over at quarterback is Anthony Jennings, a graduate transfer from LSU who started 12 games for the Tigers in 2014 so he has some big game experience. Overall, 14 starters are back and Louisiana is expected to regain its form to contend in the Sun Belt Conference. The Cajuns will be tested right out of the gate and because of the struggles last season, they are getting a huge number here at home. Boise St. went just 9-4 last year which was a disappointment mostly because it was unable to win the MWC. The Broncos are expected to have a better season although they do come in unranked. Offensively, they bring back the main cogs and will be explosive but the defense is a huge concern. The Broncos are set at linebacker, but have little experience on the defensive line and in the defensive backfield. It will be up to the defensive veterans to lead the defense as it grows and finds itself. Overall, they only have five starters back on that side of the ball. The Cajuns have cherished the role of underdog, going 18-9 ATS under Hudspeth including a perfect 2-0 as home underdogs, both resulting in outright winners. This was originally scheduled for a 7:00 PM local time start but was moved up to the afternoon and that is a huge edge for the home team with the forecast calling for a hot and humid day, something the Broncos are not accustomed to. 10* (204) UL-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns

Football starts early on Saturday as Boston College and Georgia Tech square off in Ireland in what can be considered a must win for both teams. They are both coming off dreadful seasons a year ago which was more surprising for Georgia Tech than it was for Boston College. The Yellow Jackets went 3-9 including a 1-7 record in the ACC and after a 2-0 start, they were unable to get anything going. The Eagles finished with an identical 3-9 record but went winless in the conference as their offense was dreadful. Two of their wins came against teams from the FCS while the other was a three-point win at home against Northern Illinois. We need to figure out which team, if any, can bounce back this season and the answer to that is Georgia Tech. Last year was the worst season at the school for head coach Paul Johnson and he will no doubt have his team focused for this opening game. He has always been a strong starter and going back, the Yellow Jackets are 24-8 ATS in the first two weeks of the season including an 18-9 ATS record under Johnson and he has only lost twice in the first game of the season against an FBS team. Georgia Tech gets its quarterback, top three running backs and top two receivers back so after slipping in offense last season, it should be ready for a big rebound. Six of its nine losses were by one possession so the Yellow Jackets were closer to having a good season than the record shows. The Eagles lost some close games as well only because the defense kept things close but they will have a tough time with this option offense. Look for the Yellow Jackets to pull away in this one. 10* (153) Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

Temple was one of if not the biggest surprises of college football last season, winning 10 games after winning just eight in the first two seasons under head coach Matt Rhule. The Owls nearly upset Notre Dame along the way as well so they will be coming into this season as significantly overrated and we are seeing it already in Game One of the season. This is the first time since 2008 that Temple is favored in a season opener against a team from the FBS and it is a pretty big number to say the least. Army disappointed last season with a 2-10 record but it was the best double-digit loss team in the country if there is such a thing. The Black Knights were outgained by an average of just 38 ypg and outscored by only 5.7 ppg which shows how competitive they really were. Army lost seven games by a touchdown or less including four by four points or less and while they were not against any elite teams, we definitely cannot put Temple into that category despite their solid record last season because it played a fairly easy schedule as well. Army has 16 starters back so it can build on what was accomplished last season even though it did not show up in the win column. One of those is quarterback Ahmad Bradshaw who left the team a couple weeks ago only to change his mind the next day and return to West Point. Conversely, Temple has just 12 starters back after returning 19 starters a season ago so bringing back experience can go a long way for sure. The road has been unkind to the Black Knights since 2011 with just one victory but that win came last season while this is the most experienced team over this timeframe. 10* (147) Army Black Knights

Indiana went to a bowl game last season for the first time since 2007 and despite a 6- overall record, the Hoosiers were a lot better than that record shows as five losses came by a touchdown or less and three of those were against Ohio St., Michigan and Iowa. While the Hoosiers went 3-2 on the road last season, equaling that mark will not be easy especially with the loss of their starting quarterback, leading rusher and seven other starters. Indiana covered both games last season when laying points on the road but those were both under a touchdown. Things have improved in each of the three years for Florida International under head coach Ron Turner, going from one win to four wins to five wins. There is room for an even bigger jump this season thanks to nine returning starters on offense, a unit that struggled last season but should get a lot better. The big factor is returning quarterback Alex McGough who was solid last season, completing 64 percent of his passes while tossing 21 touchdowns and just eight picks. He struggled late in the season because of injuries to his receivers and offensive line but the entire line is back as is his top three receiving targets. Defensively, the Golden Panthers were pretty bad but should also be better this season as the back seven returns five of their starters. There is a solid revenge factor here as Florida International went to Indiana last season and had a lead in the fourth quarter but failed to pull it off as a 96-yard pick-six was the difference. As far as line value, the Golden Panthers were getting 7.5 points and now they are getting more at home. Additionally, we play on home underdogs 3.5 to 10 points that had a completion percentage of .620 or better, in non-conference games. This situation is 27-3 ATS (90 percent) since 1992. 10* (134) Florida International Golden Panthers

Tennessee enters the 2016 season with some very lofty expectations and rightfully so. The Volunteers are ranked No. 9 in the Preseason AP Poll and while rankings are meaningless now and throughout the season, it does show how they are expected to compete. Tennessee actually received a first place vote in the USA Today/Amway Coaches Preseason Poll and it would not be surprising for this team to make a playoff run. The two toughest SEC games are at home against Alabama and Florida and the rest of the slate is very doable. Momentum is huge as the Volunteers win their last six games last season and all of their four losses were by seven points or less. Additionally, they are loaded with 17 starters returning. While Appalachian St. has had a lot of success since moving into the FBS in 2014, we have to remember where it plays and which teams it plays against. The Mountaineers have gone 13-3 in the Sun Belt Conference which is a phenomenal record no matter where a team plays but the level of competition is a lot different here. They have gone 5-4 in non-conference games the last two years but three of those wins came against teams from the FCS while two of the losses came against power conference teams by a combined score of 93-24. As a matter of fact, since their upset win at Michigan in 2007, they have gone 0-6 against the power conferences, losing by an average of 37.8 ppg. Appalachian St. was a road underdog just once last season which shows its level of competition. Momentum is big in this spot as we play on favorites of 10.5 to 21 points in the first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with three or more straight wins, with an experienced quarterback returning as starter. This situation is 27-6 ATS (81.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (190) Tennessee Volunteers

California had eight straight winning seasons between 2002 and 2009 but has had just two since then and while last year was one of those, it was a major disappointment. The Golden Bears had one of the top quarterbacks in college football in Jared Goff but managed an underachieving 8-5 record that included four wins by six points or less. While Goff has departed, so have plenty of other starters on offense and it will take a while for this unit to come together. The Golden Bears lost their six top receivers as well and while quarterback Davis Webb, a graduate transfer from Texas Tech, has the ability to put up big numbers, it may not happen right away as this offense will need time to gel. Additionally, they lost offensive coordinator Tony Franklin who left for Tennessee. On the other side, the defense allowed 27 or more points nine times, allowing an average of 30.7 ppg which was No. 89 in the country and there is no reason to believe the defense will improve this season. California returns just five starters from last season and overall it lost six of its top eight defensive linemen, five of its top seven linebackers, and two starters in the secondary. This is a recipe for disaster since the Golden Bears defense will be on the field a ton because of the pass happy offense. Hawaii has been a disaster for years, going 11-39 over the last four seasons. The Warriors brought in a new head coach in Nick Rolovich, a former quarterback that is expected to turn things around. Hawaii had one of the worst offenses in the nation last season but it brings back a lot on that side of the ball including an experienced quarterback in Ikaika Woolsey and nine other starters. The Warriors will be better on defense and catching a rebuilding California offense now is perfect timing. This line is based on past history and the Golden Bears are completely overvalued considering they have been favored away from home only three times since 2012. 10* (292) Hawaii Warriors

We made a bad call on Michigan St. against Alabama and in hindsight it was the type of matchup that the Crimson Tide thrive on defensively but Clemson brings in a whole different system. The Tigers took it to Oklahoma and while that defense is far from that of Alabama, they can have some success against the Crimson Tide. I am not expecting them to move it up and down the field the whole game, but they will get their shots. Deshaun Watson is the type of quarterback who gives the Tide problems. He has eclipsed 100 rushing yards in five of his last six games and is averaging 107.7 ypg on 5.92 ypc. Of the past six quarterbacks who beat Alabama, Chad Kelly of Mississippi, Cardale Jones of Ohio St., Bo Wallace of Mississippi, Trevor Knight of Oklahoma, Nick Marshall of Auburn and Johnny Manziel of Texas A&M, only Wallace averaged fewer than 4 ypc in that season while Knight, Marshall and Manziel each averaged more than 6 ypc. Watson poses not only a run threat but also a deep passing threat, where Alabama has been vulnerable at times. The Alabama offense put up 440 yards against Michigan St. but now faces a quicker and more athletic defense in Clemson and quarterback Jake Coker will not have nearly the same success here as he did against the Sooners. Clemson is 27-11 ATS in its last 38 games away from home after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous game while going 6-0 in its last six neutral site games. Meanwhile, the Crimson Tide are 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 non-conference games. 10* (152) Clemson Tigers

The two semifinal playoff games went under the total which was due to the defenses not allowing hardly anything. While the offenses put up 37 and 38 points, those were against defenses that do not compare to what they will be facing here. Alabama comes in ranked 1st in scoring defense and 2nd in total defense while Clemson comes in ranked 16th in scoring defense and 6th in total defense and it needs to be noted that Oklahoma and Michigan St. did not rank inside the top 25 in either of those categories. I do expect Clemson to have more success on offense than Michigan St. did but the Tigers are not going to have a field day all night for sure. On the other side, Alabama will be facing a much quicker and more athletic defense and they will have their own troubles. Both teams fall into a great low scoring situation where we play the under for neutral field teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 in a game involving two teams outgaining opponents by 1.2 or more yppl in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences. This situation is 32-8 (80 percent) to the under since 1992. Clemson is 12-3 to the under in its last 15 games after outrushing opponent by 200 or more yards last game while going 10-3 to the under in its last 13 games against winning teams. Meanwhile, Alabama is 33-14 in its last 47 games against teams averaging 200 or more rushing ypg. The teams combined to go 12-6 to the under when the total was between 40 and 55 this season and we can expect that to continue here. 10* Under (151) Alabama Crimson Tide/(152) Clemson Tigers

This is a play on ARKANSAS for our Bowl Game of Year. Surprisingly, there have been three teams this bowl season that entered with five wins and won their bowl game, San Jose St., Minnesota and Nebraska. I do not see that happening for Kansas St., not even close. I consider them a five-win team because one win came against South Dakota of the FCS and another came against 0-12 Kansas so the six wins are skewed. It would be a great way to end the career of head coach Bill Snyder but this is a horrible matchup for the Wildcats. And it still may not even be his last year because rumors are swirling he wants to come back for one more season. Arkansas was supposed to have a breakout season but instead, finished 7-5 no thanks to early losses against Toledo, Texas Tech and Texas A&M. The Razorbacks did go on to win sic of their last eight games however, one loss coming against Alabama and the other coming against Mississippi St. by just one point. Three of those victories came on the road at Tennessee, Mississippi and LSU so those were definitely quality wins. The offense really got things going late in the season and the Razorbacks finished 2nd in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency while on the other side of the ball, Kansas St. finished 75th in adjusted defensive efficiency so it will be a complete mismatch. The Wildcats offense also finished 75th so those are two horrible rankings for a supposed bowl team. Arkansas was not a great defensive team but the only team that lit it up in regulation was Mississippi St. as three of their games went into overtime. Arkansas has a great situation on its side as we play against underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points that are coming off a win by three points or less over a conference rival, with a winning percentage between .450 and .550 on the season. This situation is 28-4 ATS (87.5 percent) since 1992. 10* (276) Arkansas Razorbacks

Oklahoma St. had a chance to run the table in the Big XII after a 10-0 start but was gashed at home against Baylor and two different backup quarterbacks before getting annihilated against Oklahoma, also at home, to end the regular season. I don't see how this team can get up even though it is a major bowl game. And even if the Cowboys do, they are going to have a tough time stopping the Mississippi offense. The Rebels are ranked 10th in total offense and 12th in scoring offense, racking up 514.8 ypg and 40.3 ppg respectively. They are balanced and the running game will be a huge advantage here as they really picked things up the last five games since the return of Laremy Tunsil on the offensive line. Oklahoma St. is ranked 83rd against the run with 185.3 ypg allowed and gave up 344 to the Sooners in their last game. The Rebels amassed 200 or more yards in three of those final five games. Oklahoma St. has an explosive offense but the Rebels match up well. We saw a similar outcome on Tuesday when LSU, which has a similar defense, held another spread offense, Texas Tech, to just 27 points and 399 total yards. The Rebels will be without defensive tackle Robert Nkemdiche which is a tough loss but there is plenty more talent on that side of the ball. The Cowboys quarterback situation is sticky as starting quarterback Mason Rudolph missed most of the Oklahoma game because of a foot injury which required surgery. He is questionable and is far from 100 percent. 10* (271) Mississippi Rebels

This game has the look and the feel of an ugly low scoring game which some people prefer. It looks pretty attractive to me considering this total is relatively high for this matchup and has actually gone up slightly since opening. The offenses have put up a ton of points this season on both sides but those came against some very poor defenses and mismatches. Iowa comes in with the 21st ranked total defense while Stanford comes in with the 46th ranked total defense. The Hawkeyes play a base defense and play it very well as they are in the top 25 nationally in rush defense, total defense and scoring defense. Going back, the Stanford offense struggles the majority of the time against Big Ten defenses. The Stanford defense is not as good but the Hawkeyes offense is not as good as the numbers it has put up as it has faced five defenses ranked 100th or worse. I don't see them having much success here. Both teams fall into two great under situations. First, we play the under involving two teams from major conferences on a neutral field where the total is between 49.5 and 56 after having won 3 out of their last 4 games. This situation is 23-4 (85.2 percent) to the under the last 10 seasons. Second, we play the under where the total is between 49.5 and 56 in a game involving two teams with winning percentages of .800 or better in major bowl games played in January. This situation is 52-20 (72.2 percent) to the under since 1992. 10* Under (269) Iowa Hawkeyes/(270) Stanford Cardinal

Entering the Fiesta Bowl, Ohio St. comes in ranked 28th in scoring offense with 35.0 ppg while Notre Dame comes in 31st in scoring offense with 34.8 ppg. The defenses have been great on both sides, more so for the Buckeyes but this game has the feel that the offenses will be able to run the table. One big reason for this is the coaching as we have two great offensive minds and with so much time to prepare, it only adds to it. Starting with Notre Dame, its offensive balance (215.6 ypg rushing/256.3 ypg passing) has been an asset all season long and it can keep the Buckeyes defense off balance. One huge edge for the Fighting Irish offense is that Ohio St. is missing two senior starting defensive tackles as Tommy Schutt is out with an injury while Adolphus Washington has been suspended. Notre Dame running back could be back after missing the last game against Stanford which would be a big boost. On the other side, Ohio St. has been relying on the run but don't surprised to see Urban Meyer chance that here as air it our more as the injuries to the Notre Dame secondary makes it a huge weakness. While the Buckeyes have been a big under team this season, most of those took place at home and going back, they 8-1 to the over in their last nine games away from home against teams outscoring opponents by 10 or more ppg while going 11-2 to the over in their last 13 games with a total between 56.5 and 63. Meanwhile Notre Dame is 6-0 to the over in its last six games following an ATS loss. 10* Over (267) Notre Dame Fighting Irish/(268) Ohio St. Buckeyes

Not many seem to giving Michigan St. a chance in this game and the line is telling us a similar story but the Spartans match up pretty well with Alabama and have a legitimate shot at an upset as long as they do not shoot themselves in the foot. The Crimson Tide have one of the best defenses ever under head coach Nick Saban and that is saying a lot as there have been some outstanding stop units in Tuscaloosa. Slowing down the penetration of the Alabama defensive line is critical for the Spartans they have the talent on their offensive line to do so. That will help quarterback Conner Cook, who has declared himself as 100 percent healthy, be able to stay in the pocket and create some plays downfield. On the other side, Derrick Henry is a beast, but Alabama's offense plays into the hands of Michigan St.'s defense as the Spartans want you to run the ball because their defensive weakness is in the secondary. Alabama quarterback has done a solid job of running the offense but he has not been asked to make big plays in key situations and has not been a downfield threat all season. Michigan St. falls into a solid contrarian situation where we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points that are allowing 125 or fewer rushing ypg, after outrushing opponent by 150 or more yards last game. This situation is 53-25 ATS (67.9 percent) over the last five seasons. Additionally, Michigan St. is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games against teams allowing 3.25 ypc or less and 7-0 ATS in its last seven games away from home against teams with a winning percentage of .7500 or better. 10* (259) Michigan St. Spartans

This line opened anywhere from -1 to -3 pretty much across the board and now we are seeing a minimum of -3.5 everywhere as of early Tuesday. That is the number we wanted and will hit it with Clemson getting at least a hook over the key number. These are two of the best offenses in the country as Oklahoma is ranked 6th in total offense with Clemson coming in 11th in total offense, the difference being just over 30 ypg. Both teams are extremely balanced and have the ability to score anywhere from the field so there is no huge advantage either way. Defensively, Clemson is better by 54.5 ypg and there is a pretty big intangible involved here where the Sooners numbers are skewed. They won at Baylor and at home against TCU against backup quarterbacks and they won those by just 11 points combined. They rolled over Oklahoma St. in their final game but still allowed 457 total yards. Clemson has the 7th ranked passing efficiency defense and 23rd in rushing defense so the Tigers are balanced on that side of the ball as well. They defeated North Carolina by just eight points in the ACC Championship but completely dominated the yardage battle and held the Tar Heels to more than 100 yards below their season average. Some will point to motivation for the Sooners after getting thumped last season 40-6 in the Russell Athletic Bowl but that has no bearing here as motivation is not an issue on either side and one team will not be more motivated than the other. This line should be more around a pickem so we will grab the inflated number here. 10* (262) Clemson Tigers

Prior to the two playoff games New Year's Eve, we have a solid matchup in the afternoon featuring Houston against Florida St. The Cougars were looking to crash the party but a loss at Connecticut knocked them out of any chance to think about a playoff berth. Still, they got a solid bowl against a solid opponent and while their offense has been potent, they will have a tough time here. Florida St. comes in ranked 16th in the nation in total defense and 5th in scoring defense and Houston has struggled against good defenses. It was held to 17 points against Connecticut and 24 points against Temple and those defenses are ranked 16th and 17th in scoring defense respectively. The Seminoles aren't going to scare anyone with their offense as taking out games against Texas St. and Chattanooga where they scored 59 and 52 points, their scoring averages drops from 32.3 ppg to 27.7 ppg which would put it 74th in the country. Houston typically is known for playing poor defense but the Cougars are 53rd overall and a very solid 20th in scoring defense, allowing just 20.5 ppg. This was a good one to wait out as the total has risen a couple points from opening. Both teams fall into a great low scoring bowl situation as we play the under in bowl games between teams from major conferences with winning percentages of .800 or better where the total is between 49.5 and 56. This situation is 46-16 (74.2 percent) to the under since 1992. 10* Under (257) Houston Cougars/(258) Florida St. Seminoles

This spread has shifted over a touchdown as Louisville has gone from a three-point underdog to a 4.5-point favorite which makes the side play unplayable at this point. The reason for the swing is because of Aggies quarterbacks Kyle Allen and Kyler Murray deciding to transfer out with Jake Hubenak taking over as the starter. While this hurts them to win and/or cover, it helps the under which has come down only three points. It is going to be difficult for the offense to get anything going as in his first season since transferring from Blinn College, Hubenak made four appearances and went 12 of 27 for 92 yards with one touchdown. Louisville played solid on defense this season and should prosper here. On the other side, the Aggies boasted a very strong defense as they finished 28th in points allowed and were exceptionally good against the pass, allowing just 161.2 ypg, good for 4th in the nation. They match up well here against a Louisville offense that did nothing from the start. The Cardinals problems stem from youth as the offense has used two true freshman tackles, a true freshman quarterback, three true freshman wide receivers, a redshirt freshman tight end and a redshirt freshman guard. It has been reported that during bowl practices, Louisville basically reinstalled its offense which is not a good sign for success. Louisville is 7-0 to the under in its last seven games away from home after outgaining opponent by 175 or more total yards in its previous game while the under is 6-2 in the Aggies last eight games following a straight up loss. 10* Under (253) Louisville Cardinals/(254) Texas A&M Aggies

This bowl, going back to the days of the Continental Tire Bowl and the Meineke Car Care Bowl, has produced some high scoring games and I project another one this season in the fifth edition of the Belk Bowl. It has been a mixed bag of over/unders for both NC State and Mississippi St. but the matchup between the two should produce some big offensive numbers. We have two exceptional quarterbacks taking the field today as the Wolfpack's Jacoby Brissett threw for 2,448 yards with 19 touchdowns and just four interceptions while the Bulldogs Dak Prescott threw for 3,413 yards with 25 touchdowns and also just four interceptions. Overall, NC State has scored 34 or more points in eight of its 12 games and while the defense has put up some solid numbers, a lot of that is who it played against. When facing good offenses, the defense yielded 45, 34 and 56 points and the Bulldogs can take advantage as they fall into that category. Their defense is not nearly as good however, especially of late as Mississippi St. gave up 31, 50 and 38 points over its last three games. Prior to that, the Bulldogs played very poor offenses. We should see some big plays from both sides and because of that, this relatively smaller than expected total won't be an issue. The over is 11-3-1 in the Wolfpack's last 15 games following an ATS loss while the over is 4-0 in the Bulldogs last four games following a straight up loss. 10* Over (251) NC State Wolfpack/(252) Mississippi St. Bulldogs

This was by far the worst season offensively under Gus Malzahn at Auburn as they finished 77th in the country with 27.2 ppg, and 95th in the nation with 367.3 ypg. A lot of that can be blamed on the fact that the Tigers were never able to find consistency from the quarterback position which continues here. Auburn has yet to name a starting quarterback in this game and while that could be a disadvantage for Memphis because of preparation, it is really telling us that the quarterback situation is a mess for Auburn. Defensively, Auburn was just as bad as it had one of its worst years in recent memory as it finished 91st in total defense and will surely struggle against this Memphis offense that is ranked 12th in yardage and sixth in points scored. Quarterback Paxton Lynch had a great season, throwing for 3,670 yards and 28 touchdowns and just three picks so there is a clear advantage at that position for Memphis. Additionally, defensive coordinator will Muschamp will not be coaching as he headed to South Carolina which further complicates matter for Auburn. Head coach Justin Fuente has moved on to Virginia Tech but there should not be much continuity lost as Darrell Dickey will be the interim head coach and he has been with Fuente during all four years at Memphis as the co-offensive coordinator so the offense will not suffer. Here, we play on teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are averaging 34 or more ppg going up against teams allowing between 21 and 28 ppg, after allowing 14 points or less last game. This situation is 52-21 ATS (71.2 percent) since 1992. 10* (249) Memphis Tigers

It was a great start to the season for LSU as it was ranked second in the initial College Football Playoff rankings but then faced Alabama and was dominated in the trenches. That was the first of three straight losses but the Tigers defeated Texas A&M in their season finale which saved head coach Les Miles' job. While the season long goals have been lost, a win here is big to gain momentum going into next year while proving that keeping Miles was the smart move and the Tigers should no issues rolling in this matchup. Motivation should be pretty high for Texas Tech as well but motivation can only go so far when matchups are at a huge disadvantage. The Red Raiders test their second-ranked offense against a top-25 defense that is fast and athletic. The Tigers as mentioned struggled against Alabama while also struggling against a similar style in Arkansas but match up well against a spread offense as witnessed in the game against Texas A&M. The Red Raiders rank 126th out of 127 FBS teams in total defense, including giving up 273.3 ypg on the ground which is ranked 126th. That is where LSU is going to control the game as the running game behind Leonard Fournette will have a field day. Fournette rushed for 1,741 yards this year and his only bad games were the three losses but those were against rushing defenses ranked 1st, 16th and 28th. The Red Raiders allowed Texas to run for 403 yards on 8.4 ypc in their season finale and will get gashed again here. 10* (248) LSU Tigers

We should see a highly motivated North Carolina team on Tuesday despite a tough finish to the season. North Carolina was picked to finish No. 5 in the Coastal Division after a 6-7 record in 2014 but the Tar Heels went undefeated in the ACC and lost a tough one against Clemson in the ACC Championship. The offense will be the key here as the Tar Heels ranked No. 20 in total offense, and actually led the Bears in yards per play (7.33 to 7.25). Quarterback Marquise Williams had a great season but was overshadowed by Deshaun Watson from Clemson and he presents big problems for Baylor as he is a duel threat signal caller. He has a bevy of receivers to throw the ball to and he also has Elijah Wood in the backfield who was a First Team All-ACC back after putting up 1,345 yards and 17 touchdowns. Baylor sophomore quarterback Chris Johnson has been clearly to play but he is far from the same player as Seth Russell and Jarrett Stidham. Johnson has thrown for 220 yards and three touchdowns but his completion percentage is just 39.5 percent. Not only that but the Bears will be without Biletnikoff winner Corey Coleman. He has been by far the most targeted receiver as he has 34 percent of receptions, 37 percent of receiving yards and 74 percent of touchdown receptions. Additionally, All-Big XII running back Shock Linwood has been downgraded to doubtful. We have seen the line shift the other way but it is the right move and will not come into play. 10* (244) North Carolina Tar Heels

There have been a large number of shootouts in the early bowl games and we should see another starting out on Tuesday. We have contrasting styles on offense going against each other here in the Armed Forces Bowl and both units have excellent matchups against the opposing defenses. California brings in the 9th ranked offense in the country including ranking fourth in passing offense and while the Air Force defense has been solid overall, the Falcons have struggled against the pass, allowing 8.4 ypa away from home and they haven't been overly tested in those games. The Golden Bears are ranked 110th in total yards including 104th in rushing defense so Air Force will have no issues moving the ball and that sets up the possibility of big plays through the air. While they do not throw it much, the Falcons are ranked 2nd in the nation in yards per completion at 21.23. California has allowed a gaudy 261 ypg on 5.7 ypc on the ground away from home this season so we should see some big plays. Air Force has been a big over team this season, surpassing the total in eight of 12 games. California has been a surprising under team this season based on the stats but the totals have been inflated in a lot of cases. The Golden Bears are 22-7-1 to the over in their last 30 non-conference games while the Falcons are 20-7 to the over in their last 27 games after covering the spread in three of their last four games. 10* Over (241) Air Force Falcons/(242) California Golden Bears

12 of the first 18 bowl games have gone over the total but we should start Monday with a low scoring game in the Military Bowl from Annapolis. We have a few factors on our side as both are slower paced teams and both prefer to run the ball more than they pass it. That is a pretty obvious statement for Navy but Pittsburgh is more of a running team as they rush it close to 60 percent of the time. It is important to keep the running game going which will give the Panthers an edge, or remaining close to even in time of possession so they do not wear down. Giving up only about 21.3 ppg, the Midshipmen rank 26th in the nation in scoring defense and Pittsburgh is not far back, allowing 24.6 ppg. Both teams fall into the same situation where we play the under in the second half of the season involving teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 in a game involving two teams that are +/- 50 ypg in differential, in non-conference games. This situation is 44-14 (75.9 percent) to the under the last 10 seasons. The teams are a combined 8-4 to the under when the total is between 48.5 and 55 while Navy is 25-8 to the under in its last 33 games against averaging 2 or more timer possession minutes while Pittsburgh is 27-11 to the under in its last 38 games away from home following a straight up loss. 10* Under (237) Pittsburgh Panthers/(238) Navy Midshipmen

Indiana is playing its first bowl game since 2007 and searching for its first bowl win since the 1991 Copper Bowl. If that isn't a motivator, I don't know what is. The Hoosiers finished just 6-6 on the season but they played a lot better than the record shows. They opened the season 4-0 and while the only good win was against Western Kentucky, it put them in place to get ot the postseason. Indiana went on to lose six straight games, five against elite teams, and that includes losses against Ohio St., Iowa and Michigan by 7, 8 and 7 points and those teams finished a combined 32-5. The Hoosiers needed two wins to close the season to become bowl eligible and they did just that with blowout wins over Maryland and Purdue, both on the road. While they were outgained overall on the season, they were not outgained as much as Duke was. The improbable loss against Miami took the wind out of the Blue Devils sails as that started a four-game losing streak and the final three losses were bad ones. They did defeat Wake Forest on the road to end the season but that was by just six points. Duke should have some success a poor Indiana defense but the key here is on the other side where Indiana averaged 490.8 ypg, good for 17th in the nation and best in the Big Ten by a substantial amount. Balance is the key as Indiana averaged over 200 ypg on the ground and over 285 ypg through the air. Duke finished 46th in total defense and 45th in scoring defense, pretty decent but not good enough to stop the Hoosiers offense. 10* (231) Indiana Hoosiers

Washington St. was picked by many to finish at or near the bottom of the Pac 12 North but the Cougars had an awesome season with an 8-4 record, their most wins since 2003. And it could have been better. They opened the season with an inexcusable loss against Portland St. of the FCS but bounced back strong. Losses against California and Stanford were by just six and two points respectively and some of the wins were quality as they defeated Oregon, Arizona, Arizona St. and UCLA. Washington St. did get hammered in the Apple Cup against Washington as it lost by 35 points but I expect that to be a huge motivator against Miami. The Hurricanes also finished 8-4 and they closed the season 4-1 after head coach Al Golden was fired. Three of those wins were by six points or less and all against teams not as good as Washington St. Miami was horrible on defense for most of the season and they will be in trouble here and you have to look at two games to prove that. The Hurricanes allowed 58 points to Clemson and 59 points to North Carolina, two of the best offenses they faced and Washington St. is ranked right up there with them. With a new coach coming in after this game, motivation could be in question for the Hurricanes but on the other side, Washington St. hasn't won a bowl game since defeating Texas in the Holiday Bowl in 2003 so motivation will not be an issue for the Cougars. 10* (228) Washington St. Cougars

Seven of the first 10 bowl games going into Thursday have gone over the total but the first game on Saturday has the potential to be a snoozer. When you think Marshall, you typically think offense but that wasn't the case this season as the Thundering Herd averaged 401.3 ypg which was 64th in the nation and while they ranked 43rd in scoring offense, they will be tested here. Connecticut allowed just 352.3 ypg which was 34th in the nation and it allowed only 19.8 ppg, good for 16th lowest. The Huskies held some prolific scoring teams to season lows and we should see another strong effort here. On the other side, the Huskies averaged just 318.4 ypg and 17.8 ppg, 119th and 118th respectively in the country. They scored more than 20 points only three times and will face a Marshall defense that allowed just 372.3 ypg and 18.4 ppg, 47th and 13th respectively. That unit is good enough to keep Connecticut in check for sure. We are seeing a low total here but it is for good reason and should prove to not be low enough. Here, we play the under in the second half of the season involving teams (Connecticut) where the total is between 42.5 and 49 that are averaging between 4.8 and 5.6 yppl going up against teams allowing between 4.2 and 4.8 yppl, after being outgained by 125 or more total yards last game. This situation is 53-22 (70.7 percent) to the under since 1992. The under is 10-1 in the Huskies last 11 games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points while the Under is 6-0 in Thundering Herd last 6 games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points while the under is 6-0 in the Thundering Herd's last six games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points. 10* Under (225) Connecticut Huskies/(226) Marshall Thundering Herd

This has the potential to be one of the higher scoring games even though we have already seen our share of offensively dominated matchups. Middle Tennessee averages 458.7 ypg and 34.3 ppg which are 30th and 34th in the nation respectively and it is coming off a pair of high output games to close the season. The defense allowed just seven points in those games but they were against non-bowl teams and while the stop unit has allowed a respectable 25.1 ppg, the Blue Raiders have allowed 41 ppg against bowl teams. Western Michigan can certainly take advantage as it averages 480.9 ypg and 35.3 ppg, which are 22nd and 27th in the country respectively. They were held in check only a few times this season but those came against some elite defenses. The Broncos defense played poor down the stretch and overall they ranked 78th in total defense and 77th in scoring defense. The game features some of the top receivers in the country you have never heard of. Western Michigan's Corey Davis and Daniel Braverman have over 1,200 yards receiving each this season while Middle Tennessee's Richie James and Ed Batties have combined to catch 177 passes for 2,180 yards and 19 touchdowns this year. Middle Tennessee falls into a situation favoring a high scoring game as we play the over in the second half of the season involving teams that average 440 ypg, after outgaining their opponent by 175 or more total yards in two consecutive games. This situation is 67-33 (67 percent) to the over since 1992. 10* Over (221) Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders/(222) Western Michigan Broncos

This is a great setup for Georgia Southern as there are plenty of solid angles on their side. First off, this is the first ever bowl game for the Eagles which finished solo third in the Sun Belt Conference this season after going 8-0 last season but were denied a bowl game because it was their first year as a fulltime FBS member. That is good enough motivation alone. They are a rushing dog and a big one at that as Georgia Southern averages 355.6 ypg on 6.5 ypc, both of which are best in the country. Bowling Green also possesses a potent offense but from a passing standpoint as the Falcons are led by quarterback Matt Johnson who finished second in the country in passing yards. The Falcons will be without head coach Dino Babers who took the head coaching job at Syracuse and coming from a Baylor background, he will be missed. Granted, the Eagles are also working with an interim coach as Willie Fritz moved on to take over the coaching job at Tulane but the impact should not be as big in this offense. Georgia Southern got clobbered in its last game against Georgia St. so it will be out to end the season on a high note and going back, the Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a straight up loss. Meanwhile, Bowling Green is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games after a game where they forced five or more turnovers. 10* (219) Georgia Southern Eagles

This total has come down slightly but we should be in for a pretty vanilla game from each offense which squares off against pretty solid defenses. Neither team has played a ton of potent offenses but both of these units fall into the same category of what they both faced this season. Akron is ranked 97th in total offense while Utah St. comes in only slightly better at 91st and as far as points, both are in the lower half as well. On the other side, the defenses are clearly the better units as the Zips are ranked 17th in total defense while the Aggies are 22nd which is the main reason this total is as low as it is. Akron linebacker Jatavis Brown led the MAC in sacks with 10.5 and tackles for loss with 17.5, while leading the team in tackles at 108. For Utah St., linebackers Kyler Fackrell and Nick Vigil both made first-team all-MWC, and Vigil leads the Aggies with 140 tackles and 12.5 tackles for loss. Utah St. quarterback Chuckie Keeton is back but he is far from the same start quality quarterback from a couple years ago. He came back for the final two games and once again looked really shaky down the stretch as was just 34-of-72 for 352 yards with only one touchdown and one interception. Akron has gone under in its last six non-conference games away from home while Utah St. has gone under in six of its last seven December games. 10* Under (213) Akron Zips/(214) Utah St. Aggies

This has the potential to be a shootout as these offenses are two that are capable of big plays. Combined, they average 77 ppg which shows the linesmakers are keen on these defenses and there is no reason to be. The offenses are both ranked in the top 40 in offensive efficiency and the end of the season saw even greater numbers. Western Kentucky has averaged 52.3 ppg over its last three games while South Florida has averaged 51 ppg over the same stretch with two of the three games for each team coming against other bowl teams. On the other side, the Hilltoppers are ranked 60th in total defense while the Bulls are 37th in total defense so while both are above average, neither are dominant enough to hold down the opposing offenses. This total is the second highest of the season for the Bulls but the last one easily went over and as for Western Kentucky, this is on the low side and for the season, the Hilltoppers have gone over the total in nine of 12 games when the over/under is 62 or higher. The good thing is that this is an early bowl game so there is not a ton of time off which can often hurt an offense. Western Kentucky is 13-4 to the over after scoring 31 or more points in two straight games while South Florida is 5-2 to the over after scoring 40 or more points. 10* Over (211) Western Kentucky Hilltoppers/(212) South Florida Bulls

I have brought up motivation before and will do so again and that is a factor in this game a well. Georgia St. is a pretty amazing story this season as after going 1-23 the last two seasons, its first two as a full FBS member, and being picked to finish last in the Sun Belt Conference, the Panthers won their last four games to make it to their first ever bowl game. The turnaround from the start of the season to the end of the season was one of the best in the nation and it can be attributed to the offense led by quarterback Nick Arbuckle who is less than 100 yards away from breaking the all time SBC record for total offense. San Jose St. has no business being here as it defeated only four FBS teams this season and three of those teams finished a combined 9-28. This is the clear example of why there are too many bowl games and while the Spartans may be excited to have their season extended, this is not a good position for them to be in. Georgia St. falls into a great situation where we play on teams where the line is +3 to -3 after one or more consecutive losses against the spread going up against an opponent after three or more consecutive wins against the spread. This situation is 50-19 ATS (72.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (208) Georgia St. Panthers

For the first time in its history, the BYU football program is in the middle of a bowl week being led by an outgoing coach. It is a big positive that Bronco Mendenhall is sticking around for this game instead of heading right to Virginia. "I can't wait to play in the bowl game because of how hard we're going to fight for this guy," wide receiver Mitch Mathews told the media after the BYU athletic department accepted the bowl invitation. This is a huge rivalry that was unfortunately cut off a couple years ago and there will be plenty of motivation on both sides. The Cougars closed the season strong by winning seven of their last eight games with the lone loss coming against Missouri by just four points. Utah meanwhile moved up to No. 3 in the country but that was short lived as the Utes closed the season by going 3-3 while getting outgained in four of those. Utah has played a tougher schedule and is arguably the better team but the motivator here is winning this game for Mendenhall as this will be his 100th win as the BYU head coach. Additionally, we play on teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are averaging 34 or more ppg against teams allowing between 21 and 28 ppg, after a win by 21 or more points. This situation is 75-36 ATS (67.6 percent) since 1992. 10* (203) BYU Cougars

Motivation plays a huge role in bowl games and Arizona will not have much here. Picked to contend in the Pac 12 South, the Wildcats were a major disappointment. After a 3-0 start, they were blown out at home against UCLA and that set the tone for the rest of the season. Arizona lost four of its last five games and it has not won a game in regulation since October 17th and that was by just a touchdown against Colorado. New Mexico on the other hand is extremely excited to be in this game as it is not only its first bowl game since 2007, it is a virtual home game since it is being played at its home stadium. The Lobos were a pleasant surprise for sure and while the numbers aren't great, the one thing they do well which is important is run the ball exceptionally well, averaging 249.2 ypg on 5.3 ypc. Arizona has had trouble stopping the run this season which makes the Lobos a "rushing dog" in a bowl game which is a huge advantage. If this game were being played in September, Arizona would likely roll but the scenario is completely different here. 10* (202) New Mexico Lobos

We won with Army in this game last season and despite straight up losses in the last four, the Cadets have covered three of those and we have been on them in each of those. While this version of Army may seem worse, the line is taking that into consideration and it is getting the most points in this series since getting the same point spread way back in 2003. The Cadets cannot match their four wins from last season and that is a reason this line is much bigger than last season but after being -72 ypg in differential last season, they are -44 ypg in differential this season. Additionally, their ppg differential has improved by 2 ppg, down from 8 ppg to 6 ppg. It has been a frustrating season for Army as it has lost only one game by more than 20 points while six of nine losses have been by seven points or less. Navy is having a great season and is certainly one of the better teams in recent years but this team has been good for a long time now as it has had eight or more wins every season but one since 2003-04. Navy split its games against the spread this season when favored by 20 or more points while Army covered its only game of +20 or more as it lost to Penn St. by just six points as a 25-point dog. Army is now 7-1 ATS in its last eight games at that price range. 10* (103) Army Cadets

This line came out shorter than expected as Clemson is the No. 1 teams in the country while North Carolina has not played an overly difficult schedule. The Tar Heels however have an excellent team and riding an 11-game winning streak shows they are doing something right. The offense can match Clemson point for point and while the Tigers come in with the much more heralded defense, North Carolina's stop unit has steadily improved yardage wise and that credit can be given to defensive coordinator Gene Chizik who will no doubt have a solid gameplan here. Here, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are coming off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival going up against an opponent after a road game where both teams score 31 points or more. This situation is 44-17 ATS (72.1 percent) since 1992. While it has been said that North Carolina has not defeated anyone of note, the Tar Heels are 6-0 ATS in their last six games against teams with a winning record while Clemson is just 3-9 ATS in their last 122 games following a loss against the spread. An outright win is not out of the question here. 10* (329) North Carolina Tar Heels

While there are teams this season that have not played many elite opponents, their overall body of work makes up for that in some cases but that is not the case for Iowa. The Hawkeyes have not lost this season but they have a very east schedule as they avoided all of the big teams in the big Ten and while the fault is not on them but on the schedulemakers, there is not much to like. We played against Iowa last week and while it covered against Nebraska, it was outgained by 183 total yards which came after getting outgained by 2-10 Purdue. Michigan St. destroyed Penn St. last week as Conner Cook was back in the lineup behind center and had a great game. The Spartans are one bad call away from being undefeated and while that can be countered with their fortunate win over Michigan, the win over Ohio St. shows that this team is on another level. This is where they step up as the Spartans are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games against teams with a winning percentage of .750 or better. The Hawkeyes are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game while Michigan St. is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 games off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival. 10* (331) Michigan St. Spartans

One of the great college football coaches will be on the sidelines for his final regular season game as Bill Snyder concludes a historic career where he turned the Kansas St. program around not once but twice. While this season has been pretty average, the Wildcats have the opportunity to send their coach to one more bowl game as a win over Kansas last week has kept the postseason alive. West Virginia has had a very streaky season as it went undefeated in September, winless in October and undefeated in November. The schedule had a lot to do with it and the current four-game winning streak is unimpressive in my opinion as three of those wins came at home while the lone road win was at 0-12 Kansas. There really is no reason the Mountaineers should be a road favorite here. Kansas St is 21-7 ATS in its last 28 home games when playing against teams with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 while going 6-1 ATS as a home underdog over that stretch. 10* (314) Kansas St. Wildcats

Alabama is rolling right now with nine straight wins with eight of those coming by double-digits but it is hard to trust a team laying this many points in a conference championship game. The Crimson Tide have covered four straight games but they have gone just 2-7 ATS as a favorite of more than a touchdown against trams playing with revenge. That role is with Florida which was blasted last season at Alabama by 21 points while getting outgained by 472 yards. We lost with Florida last week against Florida St. and while the final deficit was by 25 points, the Gators were outgained by just 42 total yards. The offense has struggles of late which is a big reason for this massive line but Florida is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games after failing to cover the spread in two out of their last three games while going 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a loss. While mentioned that Alabama has covered four straight games, it needs to be noted that under head coach Nick Saban, it is 0-7 ATS away from home after four or more consecutive wins against the spread. 10* (325) Florida Gators

Northern Illinois and Bowling Green square off for the third straight season in Detroit for the MAC Championship. Things are different this time around as the Huskies were favored in both of the previous two meetings but now it is the Falcons that come in as a huge chalk tonight with the main reason being the Northern Illinois quarterback situation. Drew Hare is done for the season and Ryan Graham, who led them to that improbable win over Toledo and then led them to two more win, was hurt last week. Freshman Tommy Fielder is expected to start tonight and there is no doubt that a run heavy gameplan has been put into place. Bowling Green has a very potent offense behind quarterback Matt Johnson but the Huskies have a sneaky good defense that has done enough to have their last two games go under the number while allowing more than 30 points only once this season. Northern Illinois is 12-2 to the under as an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points while Bowling Green is 6-0 to the under in its last six games against teams averaging 31 or more ppg and 14-4 to the under after covering as a double-digit favorite. Both teams fall into a great under situation as we play the under involving teams where the total is greater than or equal to 63 and having two teams averaging between 4.3 and 4.8 ypc. This situation is 46-18 (71.9 percent) to the under the last five seasons. 10* Under (303) Northern Illinois Huskies/(304)Bowling Green Falcons

This is a play on OKLAHOMA ST. for our Saturday Star Attraction. Bedlam has some pretty high stakes this season. Oklahoma can lock up a trip to the College Football Playoff with a win while Oklahoma St. can jump back into the mix, albeit a very small probability of making it through. If nothing else, the Cowboys want to destroy the Sooners chances of going to the final four and they will certainly want to make up for last week's poor effort against Baylor as they had control of their own destiny. Last week, Trevor Knight filled in for Baker Mayfield and he completed only 5 of his 16 passes, for a paltry 76 yards. The Sooners could be in major trouble if Knight gets dinged again. Oklahoma St. is 16-3 ATS in its last 19 games after allowing 17 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games and the last time these teams played here and both ranked in the top ten, the Cowboys won in blowout fashion 44-10. 10* (214) Oklahoma St. Cowboys

This is a play on FLORIDA for our Saturday Supreme Annihilator. Gamblers have very short memories and this is a case in point. The Gators opened as favorites and we have now seen a line shift of 5.5 points. This is partly due the fact they almost lost last week to Florida Atlantic but it's pretty clear they had their eyes set on this game leading up to the SEC Championship. Looking at the big picture, Florida has lost only once this season and while it was a game it never should have lost, going down at LSU is not too difficult to do. Florida St. has won two in a row although last week's win came against Chattanooga. The Seminoles are 2-2 on the road and while one loss came at Clemson, losing at Georgia Tech was uncalled for and in the tow wins, they were outgained by Wake Forest and outgained Boston College by just 22 yards. The Seminoles are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game while the Gators are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following an ATS loss. 10* (188) Florida Gators

This is a play on TEMPLE for our Blowout Game of the Month. It has been quite a season for Temple and it can cap the regular season off in style. If Temple wins Saturday, the Owls win the American Athlete Conference East Division and earn a spot in inaugural AAC championship game against either Navy or Houston. They held Memphis to four field goals last week to get into this position. Connecticut has been solid down the stretch as the Huskies have won three straight and this past weekend they earned their most impressive victory of the campaign, beating previously undefeated Houston, 20-17. They are bowl eligible now and sets up a great letdown possibility. Temple falls into two great situations. First, we play against road underdogs that are coming off a win over a conference rival as an underdog of six or more points going up against an opponent off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival. This situation is 31-4 ATS (88.6 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Second, we play against underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points coming off an extremely close win by three points or less over a conference rival, with a winning percentage of between .450 and .550 on the season. This situation is 27-4 ATS (87.1 percent) since 1992. 10* (156) Temple Owls

This is a play on NC STATE for our Saturday Enforcer. There is a lot on the line for North Carolina in the eyes of many but in reality, there isn't. The Tar Heels already have their ticket into the ACC Championship next week against Clemson and even though this is a rivalry, peeking ahead to the Tigers is a distinct possibility. North Carolina has reeled off 10 straight wins but against who? This is why they are nowhere near the top of the College Football Playoff rankings. NC State can get to eight wins for a second consecutive season and the Wolfpack have to feel disrespected here getting points at home for the fourth straight meeting at home but this is the best team they have had over that stretch. Additionally, this is the highest North Carolina has been favored by on the road and last week, it was -3.5 against a 5-6 Virginia Tech team which shows the value here. 10* (182) NC State Wolfpack

This is a play on IOWA ST. for our Saturday Ultimate Underdog. While we would typically fade teams that aren't playing to get into a bowl game or with not much to play for, that is not the case today. As reported last Sunday, Iowa St. fired head coach Paul Rhodes after seven seasons but he has been given the chance to coach the final game of the season and being a big time players coach, they will be out to win his final game here. Of the Cyclones eight losses, three have been by four points or less or in overtime and other three losses came against teams either undefeated or with one loss. West Virginia has won three straight games after a four-game losing streak, after a three-game winning streak. This is the final home game for the Mountaineers but they will get everything Iowa St. has thrown at them Saturday. Here, we play against home favorites averaging 4.8 or more ypc going up against a team allowing between 4.3 and 4.8 ypc, after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in 3 straight games. This situation is 32-8 ATS (80 percent) since 1992. 10* (157) Iowa St. Cyclones

Massachusetts is guaranteed to win three games or less for a fourth consecutive season as it lost its home finale last week Miami-Ohio as a favorite to fall to 2-9. The Minutemen did win their last road game but that came against Eastern Michigan, one of the worst teams in college football. Going back, Massachusetts is 3-21 in its 24 road games since 2012 and if it hasn't been bad enough, it is one of only seven teams in the country that has played 12 games without a bye week. Buffalo was looking good toward getting a bowl berth but has lost two straight games which makes this is must win situation. All six losses this season have come against teams that are already bowl eligible so the Bulls have won the games they needed to win and this is definitely one of those. Buffalo has qualified for only two bowl games in the programs history and will be out to get back after missing out last season. The Minutemen are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games against teams with a losing record while the Bulls are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine home games against teams with a losing road record. 10* (122) Buffalo Bulls

We played on Boise St. last Friday as we figured the Broncos would bounce back from a rare home loss but instead, they lost two home games in a season for the first time since 1998. Now with the Broncos out of the MWC East Division race, they hit the road in a bad state of mind but they are still heavy favorites simply because it is Boise St. While there is little to play for now for the Broncos, San Jose St. has a lot to play for. The Spartans need a win here to become bowl eligible for the first time since 2012 when it went 11-2. There will be some extra incentive as back in 2013, the Spartans also finished 6-6 but were snubbed for a bowl game. The situation is pretty similar as the Spartans needed a win in their final game to get to six wins and they did it with a victory over No. 16 Fresno St. They have lost twice at home, one against San Diego St. which is 7-0 in the MWC and the other against BYU by just one point. Boise St. has dominated this series but this is the first meeting since 2010 so the run is meaningless here. Here, we play against road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points coming off a loss as a favorite going up against an opponent off a road win. This situation is 35-11 ATS (76.1 percent) since 1992. 10* (142) San Jose St. Spartans

Now it is becoming very real for Iowa which moved to 11-0 following a win over Purdue last Saturday and it has moved up to No. 3 in the College Football Playoff rankings. It was a confusing move considering the Hawkeyes were actually outgained in that game and have not defeated any team of real significance. Nebraska is far from significant but a few bounces its way and it could be. Five of the Huskers six losses have come by five points or less so they have been on the cusp of a great season. This line is telling us a lot as typically, a No. 3 team in the nation is usually favored by more than one point over a team with a losing record. Nebraska needs this game to become bowl eligible and falls into a great situation where we play against teams where the line is +3 to -3 after one or more consecutive losses against the spread going up against an opponent after two or more consecutive wins against the spread. This situation is 95-44 ATS (68.3 percent) over the last five seasons. Additionally, Nebraska is 17-5 ATS in its last 22 home games teams averaging 34 or more ppg while the Hawkeyes are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games against teams with a non-winning home record. 10* (118) Nebraska Cornhuskers

While this is a big game for Texas if it wants to retain any sort of hope for the postseason, I think this is just as big of a game for Texas Tech even though it is already bowl eligible. It has been a nightmare of a season for Texas which has a quality win over Oklahoma but the other three wins are against teams a combined 8-24. The loss by the Sooners is certainly perplexing but anything can happen in a rivalry game and we can make that argument here. Texas has owned this series with a 30-5 record at home against the Red Raiders and Texas has not lost here since 1997, a span of eight straight wins. Of course, those Texas teams were a lot stronger than this current edition and Texas Tech knows it can take advantage and get some long awaited revenge. Winning this also knocks a potential bowl game away from Texas and Texas Tech would love to hand that to the Longhorns. The Red Raiders defense is horrid but they have struggled against the best offenses in the conference as they allowed 55, 63, 63 and 70 points to TCU, Baylor, Oklahoma and Oklahoma St. In all other FBS games, they have allowed 28.3 ppg and Texas isn't even averaging that many points. On the other side, Texas Tech will have no issues with a very weak Texas defense as the Red Raiders are ranked No. 2 in scoring offense and No. 3 in total offense. They also fall into a solid rushing situation where we play on road underdogs that are allowing 5.25 or more rushing ypc, after gaining 6.0 or more rushing ypc last game. This situation is 32-10 ATS (76.2 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (113) Texas Tech Red Raiders

It was an unfortunate situation for Ohio in mid-October when injuries really hit the team hard after a 5-1 start and the Bobcats lost three straight games to essentially fall out of the MAC East race. The real Ohio team has been on display the last two weeks, granted against much weaker opposition, but this team is much better than what this line is telling us here. Northern Illinois needs the win to go to its sixth straight MAC Championship but winning by more than two touchdowns may be too much to ask for against the surging Bobcats. Ohio combined for over 600 rushing yards in the Bowling Green and Kent St. game and then put together a 607-yard game against Ball St. The Huskies are rolling with six straight wins and have not lost against the number over that stretch which is a big reason this number is as big as it is. Northern Illinois has been a double-digit favorite three times within the conference but the best of those teams was Ball St. at 3-8 and the Huskies are actually favored by more against Ohio. This is not considered a big rivalry but it has played like one over the last few years as this is always a closely contested game. This includes a win by Northern Illinois last year in Athens and the interesting part is that the Huskies were favored by one point there. That makes this a minimum 12-point swing from then and that is too big of a gap as these teams are actually closer to each other this year than last year. 10* (103) Ohio Bobcats

This is a play on SMU for our NCAA Game of the Year. SMU will be the play here and while backing a 1-9 team doesn't seem feasible, the situation could not be any better. It has been a tough season for the Mustangs but we knew that was going to be the case but this is their final game on the season and it takes place in primetime on an ESPN channel. SMU has lost only one game to an FBS team with a losing record and that to a decent East Carolina team that was playing its best football of the season at the time. Since then, the Mustangs have played five straight games against teams .500 or better not to mention earlier games against Baylor and TCU. Overall, they have played the 41st ranked schedule and while there was a loss against FCS James Madison, the Dukes are ranked in the top ten in the latest FCS coaches poll. Tulane is not much better and I don't think it is any better at all. The Green Wave are coming off a win over Army last week to snap a five-game losing streak and it was quite the celebration afterward. It was their first road win of the season and they have only won 12 road games since 2005, none of which have come consecutively. SMU has been favored only once against an FBS team and that resulted in a blowout win over North Texas. The Mustangs fall into a great situation as we play on home teams in the seconds half of the season in a game involving two teams outscored by opponents by 10 or more ppg, after allowing 42 points or more last game. This situation is 51-18 ATS (73.9 percent) since 1992. Tulane is 4-15 ATS in its last 19 road games coming off a win as a road underdog including 0-8 ATS off a win by three points or less. Additionally, we are getting value with the number because of the win last week and the fact it has covered four straight while has failed to cover four in a row. 10* (388) SMU Mustangs

After a 4-3 start, Rice has lost three straight games but there is still room to become bowl eligible and the schedule sets up well for it to happen. After facing 2-8 Texas-San Antonio, the Owls square off against Charlotte to close the season so a 6-6 record is more than doable. The job head coach David Bailiff has done has been outstanding as this could be the fourth straight bowl game for Rice, something that has never happened in the history of the program. Rice struggles against potent passing attacks but that certainly is not the case of Texas-San Antonio. The Roadrunners are coming off a win over Charlotte but it came by just three points and it was the eighth time this season they have been outpassed. They were outgained overall and on the season, they have been outgained in all four home games where they are winless. Despite a horrible season, this is the third straight game that Texas-San Antonio has been the favorite which is surprising. Rice is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games against teams with a losing record while going 21-10-1 ATS in its last 32 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game. 10* (395) Rice Owls

This is a play on PITTSBURGH for our Saturday Enforcer. Pittsburgh snapped a two-game slide with a road victory over Duke to remain in the hunt in the ACC Coastal Division as it trails the Tar Heels by a game. Because of the loss to North Carolina, the Panthers have to finish a game better but with their final two games taking place at home and North Carolina playing its final two games on the road, this is the setup they need. The three losses this season have come against teams a combined 28-2, two of which were by one possession, so the 7-3 is actually better than it looks. Louisville has won four straight games but each of those four game have come against teams currently at 3-7 and the Cardinals own just one victory against a team with a winning record. Three of those four games were at home while the lone road win was at Wake Forest by just one point. While Pittsburgh has yet to cover a game at home this season, it is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 home games coming off a double-digit conference victory while the Cardinals are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. 10* (320) Pittsburgh Panthers

This is a play on MICHIGAN ST. for our Saturday Star Attraction. The Big Ten season really gets going Saturday as Michigan St. heads to Columbus to take on the Buckeyes with the winner taking over first place in the East Division. Ohio St. has not lost a game since Game Two of last season and while unblemished this year, it really hasn't been tested with the exception of a game against Penn St. The Buckeyes continue to be overvalued as proven by their 3-7 record against the spread yet they come in pretty big favorites against a team just one back behind them. Michigan St. feasibly should be undefeated this season but it got a bad deal in the loss against Nebraska two games back. The Spartans bounced back with a win and cover last week even though they were outgained by the Terrapins and after starting the season 0-6 ATS, they have covered three of their last four games. They fall into a situation where we play on road underdogs after allowing nine points or less last game going up against an opponent after allowing three points or less in the first half last game. This situation is 34-10 ATS (77.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (371) Michigan St. Spartans

This is a game where the wrong team is favored in my opinion but the reason is that Duke is riding a three-game losing streak, both straight up and against the number. The last two have been blowouts and all three came against winning teams and Virginia does not fall into that category. The Blue Devils have their six wins for bowl eligibility but two more wins (Wake Forest next week) would boost the chance of a better bowl. The Cavaliers are 3-7 with one win over William & Mary of the FCS by just six points and the other victories coming against teams both of which are 3-7. The loss against Louisville last week killed any chance of a postseason berth for Virginia so expect a sleepwalking effort here. The Cavaliers have covered four straight games but they were dogs in all of those and they are 0-3 ATS this season as favorites. Duke is 6-0 ATS in its last six games against teams with a winning percentage between .250 and .400 and 6-0 ATS in its last six games after scoring 14 points or less last games. Meanwhile, the Cavaliers are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven home games against teams with a winning road record. 10* (351) Duke Blue Devils

We are at the point of the season with only a few games remaining where teams are just playing out the string while others are still striving to win and improve their record. We are seeing both sides here as Georgia Tech is coming off a loss last Thursday, its seventh loss in its last eight games, to eliminate it from bowl contention and snapping its streak of 18 consecutive bowl games. As rocky of a season Miami has had, it is bowl eligible for a third straight season as it is 6-4. The four losses have all been against teams with a winning record, three of which have come against teams a combined 27-3. The Hurricanes are 4-1 at home with this being their final home game of the season. Georgia Tech will be very disinterested here after especially with rival Georgia on deck next week, a game they will treat as their bowl game. The Yellow Jackets are 0-7 ATS after four consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse while going 1-8 ATS in their last nine road games after failing to cover the spread in three out of their last four games. 10* (366) Miami Hurricanes

Boise St. is coming off a shocking loss at home against New Mexico last weekend, just the fifth time since 2000 that the Broncos have lost at home. They no longer control their own destiny to win the MWC East Division but they are not out of it yet. The loss last week was not only shocking because of the Broncos huge home field edge but because of the way it happened. Boise St. outgained the Lobos by 225 total yards, had a 40-11 first down advantage and held New Mexico to 0-10 on third down. They hurt themselves by not getting the job done in the redzone so we will see a more efficient effort here. Air Force has won four straight games following a home upset over Utah St. which registered its 12th straight win at home. The road is an issue as the Falcons are 1-3 with the lone victory coming at 2-9 Hawaii and they have not defeated a winning team on the road since 2011. Their run, along with the skewed Boise St. loss is keeping this number down much lower than it should be. The Broncos have been outgained only twice this season and by a combined 21 total yards so they have been extremely dominant and we will see that domination here. Boise St. is 32-11 ATS in its last 43 games after failing to cover two of its last three games while going 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up loss. Air Force is 12-25 ATS in its last 37 road games against teams averaging 425 or more ypg. 10* (318) Boise St. Broncos

Many predicted a dropoff from East Carolina this season following a 26-13 three-year run and we are definitely seeing that. The Pirates lost quarterback Shane Carden, their top running back and their two top wide receivers so replacing that production was sure to be a challenge. Add to that, the defense lost six starters and that unit has dropped off as well. East Carolina has now dropped three straight games to fall to 4-6 and its decade-long bowl run is in jeopardy. Granted, winning this one seems like a layup facing a winless UCF Knights team but winning by more than two touchdowns does not seem possible against any opponent at this point. While it has been a dropoff for the Pirates, it has been even worse for UCF. Over the same three-year span, the Knights went 31-9 so they have already dropped more games this season than those three years combined. The most troubling part is that UCF came into the season as contenders in the AAC thanks to nine starters returning on offense. Only two of their last seven games have been at home and both came against teams .500 or better so the schedule hasn't done much to help. The Pirates have been favorites in their last three losses to fall to 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games in that role including going 1-4 ATS as a road favorite. ESPN did not anticipate the records of these teams when scheduling this game but it is what it is and UCF will treat this one as its bowl game. 10* (312) UCF Knights

As mentioned yesterday, we are at the point of the season with only a few games remaining where teams are just playing out the string while others are still striving to win and improve their record. We backed Ohio which rolled to its seventh win of the season last night and seven wins is a minimum when it comes to gaining a bowl berth in this conference and Central Michigan finds itself in a predicament. The Chippewas lost to Toledo last week to fall to 5-5 so they have to win out to make any sort of claim for a postseason berth and they should be able to accomplish this with a light finish to the schedule. One reason for playing against Ball St. last night was because it registered its seventh loss in its previous game so motivation going forward was a question and we saw there was none. That should be the case with Kent St. tonight as the Golden Flashes lost their seventh game of the season last Tuesday at Ohio which makes it three straight years of not going to a bowl game. We do not have to worry about a backdoor cover here as Kent St. has one of the worst offenses in the country as it is averaging 283.7 ypg, third worst overall while its 4.12 yppl is in fact the lowest in the country. The Golden Flashes are the lowest scoring team in all of the FBS with 14.3 ppg and that drops to 7.8 ppg over their last five games. Kent St. is 4-19 ATS in its last 23 games after gaining 225 or fewer total yards in its previous game while the Chippewas are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games following a loss. 10* (307) Central Michigan Chippewas

We are at the point of the season with only a few games remaining where teams are just playing out the string while others are still striving to win and improve their record. That is the case in this game where we see Ohio at 6-4 after securing bowl eligibility last week with a win against Kent St. while Ball St. saw its postseason hopes shattered in an ugly 54-7 loss against Western Michigan. The Cardinals are 3-7 and will have little interest here on the road especially with their final game of the season taking place next week at home. The Bobcats have struggled on offense over the last four games but it has progressively gotten better which is a good sign and now facing Ball St., we should see another big jump. Ball St. is one of 10 teams in the country that are allowing more than 500 ypg as it is ranked 118th in that category, ahead of only Eastern Michigan of all MAC teams. The Cardinals have been outgained in each of their last seven games including being outyarded by a whopping 559 yards in their last game against the Broncos. The Bobcats are 6-2 ATS in their last eight home games against teams with a losing road record while the Cardinals are 1-4 ATS in their last five games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game. 10* (304) Ohio Bobcats

We lost with the over in the California/Oregon game last week by three points as 72 points were scored in the game where the posted total closed at 75. We will come back with the over this week as the Golden Bears are on a 6-0 under streak but two things are in our favor here. A lot of those unders were close to going over and this is the lowest posted total over this stretch and at this number, half of those would have gone over. The offense is ranked 23rd in the nation and needs to get rolling again after a strong start but having a tough time scoring points the last few weeks. Of course, three of those games were on the road and the lone home game was against USC. We lost with Oregon St. last week as tit was dismantled at home against UCLA, its sixth straight loss. Backing them against to cover is not happening this week as the 92nd ranked defense faces another massive test but what makes the Beavers a good over bet here is that the offense will be facing the 110th ranked defense in the country. This after facing two tough defenses in the first two games without starting quarterback Seth Collins. While the Golden Bears are on an under run, the Beavers have gone under in three straight games but the over is 4-0 in the Beavers last four games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game. 10* Over (195) Oregon St. Beavers/(196) California Golden Bears

This is a play on BAYLOR for our Saturday Star Attraction. Baylor continues to get snubbed in the College Football Playoff as it was place No. 6 last week and did not move this week despite a solid win at Kansas St. And the Bears were leapfrogged by Iowa, which moved from No. 9 to No. 5 despite a poor win over Indiana. This is the chance for the Bears to prove their worth and the fact this game is a primetime nationally televised game will only help them. This is clearly the toughest opponent they have faced but Baylor owns a 22-game home winning streak and there have been some big wins along the way and this is ne of the best Bears teams over that span. Oklahoma is looking good still as it is ranked No. 12 with big games left so this is definitely a must win for the Sooners. The Sooners have dominated of late but have played no one and in two games away from home against teams with a pulse resulted in a loss to Texas and a game they should have lost against Tennessee. Baylor falls into a solid situation as we play against road underdogs in the second half of the season that are averaging 6.2 or more yppl going up against teams allowing between 4.8 and 5.6 yppl, after gaining 525 or more total ypg over their last two games. This situation is 27-6 ATS (81.8 percent) since 1992. Baylor is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 home games while the Sooners are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game. 10* (188) Baylor Bears

This is a play on KENTUCKY for our Saturday Enforcer. Kentucky was supposed to make some noise in the SEC and after 4-1 start with the lone loss coming against Florida by just five points, things were looking that way. Since then, the Wildcats have lost four straight but it has not been an easy slate. They lost to an average Auburn team by just three points but it has been three blowouts since then although those came against Mississippi St., Tennessee and Georgia, a pretty tough slate. Kentucky has to win two of its last three games to become bowl eligible and with the season finale against Louisville, this game, along with next week against Charlotte, are must wins games. Vanderbilt is also in must win mode as it has to win out to become bowl eligible but it is not going to be easy with Texas A&M and Tennessee after this. The Commodores have a very solid defense but they simply cannot score as they have not scored more than 10 points in four straight games. They are coming off a brutal loss last week as they had Florida on the ropes but lost on a late field goal 9-7 and that will be tough to recover from and the feeling here is they won't. Kentucky falls into a great situation as we play on road underdogs after two straight losses by 17 or more points going up against an opponent after scoring 14 points or less last game. This situation is 41-16 ATS (71.9 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (153) Kentucky Wildcats

San Jose St. hits the road following three straight home games and that is a big factor here in playing the over involving the Spartans. All three of those games went under the total as the defense was the difference and has been all season based on the venue. The Spartans are allowing 20.8 ppg in five home games but that average jumps to 33.5 ppg in four road games. The offense is ranked 73rd in the nation which is a little below average but they take on a very average Nevada defense that has overachieved the last six games. We say that because the teams they have faced over this stretch are ranked 121st, 122nd, 100th, 93rd, 64th and 81st so the numbers are definitely skewed. This of course has helped with all six of those games going below the total and this is despite the fact the Wolf Pack have scored 30 points or more in three of those six games. Because of that stretch, Nevada is seeing its lowest posted total of the season and while not by much, every little bit counts when it comes to these mid-range totals. This has historically been a low scoring series but again, this is the lowest number between these two teams since 2008. Going back, the over is 8-3 in the Spartans last 11 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. 10* Over (193) San Jose St. Spartans/(194) Nevada Wolf Pack

This is a play on INDIANA for our Big Ten Game of the Year. We lost a tough one with the Hoosiers last week against Iowa as they came within a point of the cover. After opening the season 4-0, Indiana has dropped its last five games but the home contests have been more than competitive. Prior to last week, Indiana nearly shocked Ohio St. at home and the other conference home game resulted in a three-point loss against Rutgers despite winning the yardage battle. Now the Hoosiers are getting close to a touchdown more this week than they got against now 9-0 Iowa and while solid, we don't think Michigan is a better team than the Hawkeyes. The Wolverines have suffered a pair of tough losses this season and while they have dominated at home, the road has been more difficult and this is just their second road game since the begging of October with the only other game on the highway resulting in just a three-point win at Minnesota. Give credit to Michigan for bouncing back from that Michigan St. loss as it dominated Rutgers last week but with games against Penn St. and Ohio St. on deck, this is a tough sandwich spot. Michigan is 5-19 ATS in its last 24 road games after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous game while the Hoosiers are 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 home games against teams with a winning road record. 10* (128) Indiana Hoosiers

It has been quite a turnaround for Southern Mississippi as after winning four games combined the last three seasons, the Golden Eagles because bowl eligible two weeks ago with a win over UTEP. They have been doing it with defense by allowing just 33 points over the last three games combined but those came against teams ranked 95th or worst in total offense. As far as the offense goes, Southern Mississippi is ranked 13th in the country, averaging 507.7 ypg which is close to 150 ypg more than last season. They have been held to fewer than 28 points only twice all season and that offense should flourish once again here as Rice comes in with the 102nd ranked defense and has allowed an average of 38.5 ppg against FBS teams, taking out an 16-point effort against Wagner. The Owls are ranked a respectable 59th in total offense and the Owls have gone over the total in 17 of their last 23 games after consecutive ATS losses while Southern Mississippi falls into a great over situation. Here, we play the over where the total is between 56.5 and 63 involving teams after gaining 450 or more total yards in three consecutive games. This situation is 24-5 (82.8 percent) the last 10 seasons. Look for this one to fly over the number as the Golden Eagles snap their six-game under run. 10* Over (175) Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles/(176) Rice Owls

This is a play on MICHIGAN ST. for our Saturday Supreme Annihilator. Michigan St. got hosed by the referees last week at Nebraska which was unfortunate as the Spartans were rolling along and had a legitimate shot as making the College Football Playoff should it have gone into Ohio St. undefeated and pulled off the upset. The season is far from done however and a team like the Spartans can only be extremely motivated after the debacle from last week. That puts them in a great spot this week and because of that alone with the inability to cover the majority of their games this season, they are getting exceptional line value here. Maryland has lost six straight games and with the loss against Wisconsin last week, the Terrapins have seven losses so there will be no bowl game in their future and that is a big deal going forward as there is not much to play for at this point. They have lost six straight games but because they have covered four in a row, this number is lower than it should be based on the situation. The number has come down a field goal since opening as of Wednesday afternoon and we can take advantage of waiting this one out. The Spartans are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games after playing their last game on the road and are a perfect 6-0 ATS in home games after gaining 325 or more passing yards in last game under head coach Mark Dantonio. 10* (134) Michigan St. Spartans

Despite two straight losses, Colorado still remains in the postseason hunt as it has six losses so it must win out in its 13-game slate to become bowl eligible. While winning the last three games may seem like a stretch, the fact of the matter is that the Buffaloes are mathematically alive so there is plenty of motivation Friday night. They were hammered at home last week against Stanford while getting 14.5 points and here they are getting more points against a team that is not as good as the Cardinal. Additionally, Colorado is the first team playing its final home game of the season and laying in the national TV spotlight adds to it. USC has been playing well and is still alive for the PAC 12 South thanks to three straight wins but this is not an ideal spot for a blowout win. The Trojans last two games are against Oregon, which they have not faced since 2012, and rival UCLA, which they will be out for revenge after last season's 38-20 loss. Colorado has not fared well in this series since joining the PAC 12 but this is the best Buffaloes team that has faced the Trojans so being competitive should not be an issue. Bouncing back from last week's loss should happen as Colorado is 4-0 ATS I its last four games after putting up 275 or fewer yards last games while USC is just 8-21 ATS in its last 29 games following a win. 10* (116) Colorado Buffaloes

It has been a disappointing season for Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech but definitely more so for that latter. The Yellow Jackets came into the season ranked in the preseason top 20 and got up to No. 14 before losing to Notre Dame in the third game and it was all downhill from there. That started a string of five straight losses and they actually outgained the opponent in three of those. Four of six losses have been by just one possession and there is no room for error as Georgia Tech has to win out to become bowl eligible and keep its streak of 18 consecutive bowl games going. Georgia Tech has scored 20+ points in 19 consecutive ACC games dating back to 2013, the longest active streak in the ACC. Virginia Tech is 4-5 and can afford only one loss to remain bowl eligible for a 23rd straight year. The Hokies are coming off a win over Boston College but they have not won consecutive FBS regular season games since the middle of last season, going 0-4 in its last four games. While getting an extra week to prepare for the Yellow Jackets offense may seem like a benefit, the Yellow Jackets are 8-3 in their 11 games against teams that have more than a week to prepare. The Hokies are 9-20 ATS in their last 29 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game while the Yellow Jackets are 17-8-2 ATS against teams with a losing record. 10* (112) Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

Northern Illinois continued its recent dominance over Toledo as it defeated the Rockets last Tuesday to hand them their first loss of the season. It was a big win for the Huskies to keep their MAC West hopes alive and speaking of big wins, it was their first quality win of the season as the first four FBS wins came against teams a combined 9-30. Hitting the road for a second straight game will be a difficult challenge and on top of that, the Huskies paid a price with that victory however as quarterback Drew Hare was lost for the season and while Ryan Graham looked good in relief as he rallied his team to the victory, it is still a big step down. Buffalo is having a solid season at 5-4 including 3-2 in the MAC and while taking out Bowling Green in the MAC East is next to impossible, the goal now is to grab that sixth victory to become bowl eligible. The Bulls are just 2-2 at home but one loss came against Nevada by three points despite outgaining the Wolf Pack by 108 yards as turnovers did them in while the other loss came against aforementioned Bowling Green by just six points. While there have been decent Buffalo teams in the past, this is one of the better ones and once of the most vulnerable Northern Illinois teams so Buffalo has a great chance at breaking its seven-game losing streak against the Huskies since joining the MAC in 1999. 10* (108) Buffalo Bulls

With Northern Illinois defeating Toledo last week, it brought a lot of teams from the MAC West right back into the mix. The Rockets had won their four previous MAC games but they were fortunate to have a very soft front end of the schedule as those first four games were against teams currently sitting at 8-30. Now, counting last week, the final four conference games are against teams that have no more than one conference loss and are a combined 24-12. Central Michigan is one of those teams that has a shot at the division as it is 4-1 and the final two games after this are against Kent St. and Eastern Michigan, a combined 4-15. The lone conference loss cam by just two points at Western Michigan, which tops the West at 5-0 but has a tough game tomorrow against 5-0 Bowling Green so a loss there can make it a bigger logjam. There is plenty of motivation for the Chippewas as they have lost five straight meetings in this series by double-digits but this is the best Central Michigan team over that stretch as two losses have come by three points or less and another came by just 13 points against 9-0 Oklahoma St. The Chippewas fall into a potent situation where we play against road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points that are coming off a loss as a favorite going up against an opponent off a road win. This situation is 35-11 ATS (76.1 percent) since 1992. 10* (102) Central Michigan Chippewas

While we are playing the over in the game with the lowest posted total of the day, we are also playing the over in the game with the third highest total of the day. We played the over in the California/USC game last week and the Golden Bears could not get an offensive rhythm going as the Trojans controlled the time of possession. That won't be the case this week as Oregon does not have close to the same defense as USC. The Ducks are ranked 116th in the nation in total defense and they allow 38.4 ppg which is 117th in the country. California's offense should wake up here after scoring 24 points or less the last three games, a number they surpassed in all five of their first games. While Oregon is struggling with a 5-3 record, the offense is still dynamic and is ranked 12th in total offense and 10th in scoring offense. Here, we play the over involving teams where the total is 70 points or higher coming off a win as an underdog from Week Ten on. The over is 23-4 (85.2 percent) over the last ten seasons. Additionally, Oregon is 7-0 to the over in its last seven home games following a Thursday game. 10* Over (401) California Golden Bears/(402) Oregon Ducks

Well, we have gotten burned by Old Dominion for the last three weeks and we are not going to get off the Monarchs as they are more than due for a cover as they are off to a 0-8 ATS start although some may have pushed last week against Western Kentucky. Going against the Hilltoppers proved to be a bad call as they are 5-0 in the conference but now Old Dominion faces a team with a worst record yet is getting a double-digit line. Texas-San Antonio is 1-3 in the conference and 1-7 overall with the only win coming against UTEP. The Roadrunners are coming off a loss against previously winless North Texas so this team is much worse off as their hopes of a bowl game are now shot. While Old Dominion has struggled against the number, it is still within reach of the postseason at 3-5 so motivation is still there. The Monarchs have a solid situation on their side as well as we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points that are coming off a loss as a road favorite of 7 or more points, after Week Ten of the season. This situation is 29-6 ATS (82.9 percent) since 1992. Additionally, the Roadrunners are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games following one or more consecutive losses while going 0-6 ATS in their last six games against teams allowing 200 or more ypg. 10* (403) Old Dominion Monarchs

This is a play on OREGON ST. for our Saturday Ultimate Underdog. I'm not sure what the Bruins have done to be laying this kind of road lumber but we will take advantage of this inflated line. UCLA has won two straight games following a two-game losing streak and while it is 3-2 in the Pac 12, the Bruins have been outgained overall in doing so. They struggled with Colorado at home last weekend as they won by just four points while getting outgained by 154 total yards. The Beavers have struggles this season as they are 0-5 in the conference but they have definitely played better at home than on the road. They lost to the same Colorado team by just four points but unlike the Bruins, they won the yardage battle by 73 yards. In the only other home game, Oregon St. lost to Stanford and was actually getting less points there than it is this Saturday. The Beavers have struggled on offense but they face an injury riddled defense and UCLA will continue to have trouble stopping the run against an adept zone-read team in Oregon St. Defensive coordinator Tom Bradley admitted that the personnel issues have limited what they wanted to do from a strategic standpoint. Oregon St. falls into a great situation where we play against favorites of 10.5 to 21 points in the second half of the season that are coming off one or more straight overs, that are averaging 34 or more ppg going up against teams averaging between 16 and 21 ppg. This situation is 26-6 ATS (81.2 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (386) Oregon St. Beavers

This is a play on OKLAHOMA ST. for our November Underdog Game of the Month. The Big XII got the biggest shaft after the first edition of the college Football Playoff Poll as all three undefeated teams are ranked lower than their AP and USA Today rankings including both teams in this matchup. Not a lot should be read into this as the meat of the schedule is still to come and this is the first of many big games in November. TCU has been near the top of the rankings all season and has played very well although it has struggled on a few occasions. The Horned Frogs have played four road games and won three of those by a touchdown or less, with a game at Iowa St. being the exception. They failed to cover the two games as a single-digit road favorite and they will have their hands full here. Oklahoma St. is also 8-0 and it too has also won a handful of close games. The Cowboys have scored 128 points in its last two games, piling up 1,245 total yards, including 859 yards through the air. They fell down 24-0 last Saturday at Texas Tech and trailed early in the fourth quarter yet still won 70-53. TCU sent Oklahoma St. on a five-game losing streak with a 42-9 win in Fort Worth last season so there will revenge in play as well. Here, we play against road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points in a game involving two teams outgaining opponents by 100 or more ypg, after gaining 6.25 or more yppl in their previous game. This situation is 48-17 ATS (73.8 percent) since 1992. 10* (384) Oklahoma St. Cowboys

This is a play on FLORIDA ST. for our Saturday Enforcer. Clemson is coming off another offensive explosion last week against NC State to remain undefeated and we missed the cover on the Wolfpack no thanks to a late Tigers field goal. Now the Tigers come in with the bulls-eye on their backs as they are ranked No. 1 in the first edition of the College Football Playoff rankings and of course, they are paying the price for it. This is no doubt an excellent football team and deserves to be where it is but is there a 21-point difference between these two teams from last season to this season? The Tigers were close to double-digit underdogs a season ago and now they are double-digit favorites and something says that the Seminoles will have something to say about that. Florida St. recovered from its heartbreaking defeat to Georgia Tech on a blocked field goal return at the end of the game as it destroyed Syracuse last week, preventing any chance of a letdown or a possible lookahead. The loss to the Yellow Jackets snapped a 28-game ACC Winning streak but this team is still equipped to win big games. The Seminoles have not allowed more than 24 points this season and while this will be the most diverse offense they have faced, the Clemson offense will have its hands full. The Tigers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating more than 450 yards on offense in their previous game and while the home field is a big edge here, Florida St. keeps this one close. 10* (387) Florida St. Seminoles

The most overrated team in the first College Football Playoff rankings arguably is Iowa. Yes, the Hawkeyes are an impressive 8-0 on the season but how impressive is it really? They did have an impressive win over Northwestern on the road but the Wildcats were just coming off a tough loss against Michigan. Iowa also defeated Wisconsin on the road but was outgained while doing so by 99 yards. The rest of the schedule has been tame at best and the rest of the schedule is far from tough as Iowa has been fortunate this season to miss Ohio St., Michigan St., Penn St. and Michigan, the top four teams in the Big Ten East Division. Indiana comes in with a 4-4 record, all four of those losses being within the conference and all coming in the last four games. This is keeping the public off the Hoosiers this week but we are backing the home underdog here. Indiana nearly shocked Ohio St. at home and the other conference home game resulted in a three-point loss against Rutgers despite winning the yardage battle. Indiana has had two weeks to prepare for this revenge battle which brings up a great situation when facing undefeated teams. Going back, Indiana is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 home games after allowing 525 or more total yards in their previous game while going 12-3-1 ATS in its last 16 home games against teams with a winning road record. 10* (338) Indiana Hoosiers

Washington St. is coming off a heartbreaking loss against Stanford as the Cougars had a late lead but allowed a field goal with less than two minutes remaining and could not get the lead back, eventually falling by two points as they missed a last second field goal. That is a loss that will be extremely tough to recover from and while Washington St. is one win away from bowl eligibility, the desperation on the other side is greater. The loss snapped a three-game winning streak but the Cougars still got the cover which was their fifth straight cover and that is adding value in this line the other way. Arizona St. lost late last Thursday night against Oregon in triple overtime which dropped the Sun Devils to 4-4 overall and 2-3 in the Pac 12. Now with the Pac 12 South Division out of reach, the goal is to make it to a fourth straight bowl games under head coach Todd Graham. While it was a tough loss to take for the Sun Devils, they outgained the Ducks by 241 total yards as the offense remains powerful. It has an ample number of playmakers and the defense is relentless in its backfield pursuit, leading the Pac 12 in sacks and tackles for loss. Washington St. is 6-17 ATS in its last 23 home games against teams allowing 250 or more passing ypg while going just 2-6 ATS in its last eight home games. 10* (415) Arizona St. Sun Devils

The third over we are going with is a middle of the road number that is going against a recent team trend. After opening the season with three straight overs, Mississippi has gone under the total in its last six games. The defense has led the way but now the defense faces the best offense it has seen since facing Memphis where the Rebels allowed 37 points. Arkansas has gotten its offense in gear the last two games and now comes in ranked 33rd in the country in total offense and 50th in scoring offense. The Razorbacks defense has been gashed for 30.7 ppg over the last six games and while the Mississippi point totals have been average of late, which is a main reason for the under run, but on the season, the Rebels are averaging 519.6 ypg which is 11th highest in the nation. They will be playing with a chip on their shoulder as well as Mississippi was shutout in Arkansas last season 30-0 so they will have a lot to prove. The Rebels control their own destiny in the SEC West so they will be ready. Arkansas is 21-9 to the over in its last 30 road November games. 10* Over (409) Arkansas Razorbacks/(410) Mississippi Rebels

This is the lowest total on the board for Saturday and we will take advantage of the number that the linesmakers were forced to post. The Commodores have failed to go above the total in any game this season and while they are coming off a game where they were shutout, that makes this a good spot for the offense to do at least a little something. This is the lowest total Florida has seen this season and it too has been on an under run, going below the total in three of its last four games. While the Gators will be facing a strong Vanderbilt defense, they are averaging 31 ppg this season and last week, the Commodores allowed a season-high 34 points against Houston. Despite the midseason quarterback change as a result of Will Grier's suspension for testing positive for a substance banned by the NCAA, the Gators quickly stabilized when Treon Harris took over. Of his 44 completions, 12 have gone for 20 or more yards (27.3 percent) and his big play ability is good for the offense. Florida has gone over the total in eight of its last 11 home games while going 7-3 to the over in its last 10 games after allowing 20 points or fewer. 10* Over (341) Vanderbilt Commodores/(342) Florida Gators

Temple is coming off a very tough loss at home last Saturday night and that can lead to a letdown here. When teams fall into this situation, it tends to affect the defense more which I expect to happen here. Saturday night marked the first game Temple played in which both teams were ranked which also provides quite the letdown. The good news for the Owls is that they are facing a horrible team and the offense that has struggled the last couple games should be able to score at will. While the defense will not completely collapse, all we should need is a couple SMU scores to push this one over. The Mustangs have lost six straight games with the defense being the big culprit as they have allowed point totals of 56, 48, 49, 49, 38 and 40 points. Overall, SMU is ranked 120th in total defense and 123rd in scoring defense while Temple comes in 58th in scoring offense. Another factor that helps here is the pace of the game as the Mustangs have run 608 plays in just eight games and the 76 plays per game on offense are good for 29th most in the nation. The solidifier is the fact that each team has gone under the total in their last two games and that is providing some value. Temple is 10-1 to the over in its last 11 road games after allowing 6.75 yppl or more in their previous game while SMU is 6-0 to the over in its last six games coming off a home conference loss. 10* Over (319) Temple Owls/(320) SMU Mustangs

Mississippi St. comes in a hefty road favorite in Missouri as it has rolled to three straight wins following a loss to Texas A&M while the tigers are riding a three games losing skid as the offense has been nowhere to be found. The Bulldogs hit the road for the first time in over a month but after scoring 45, 45 and 42 points their last three games, I expect that offense to keep chugging along despite playing a very tough defense in Missouri. The Tigers have gone under the total in all eight of their games this season thanks to a good defense and an offense that has shut down of late. They have scored just 12 points over their last three games but Missouri has faced three very strong defenses in those three games as the opposition was ranked 15th, 21st and 23rd while Mississippi St. comes in 53rd in total defense. That is a respectable ranking but the Bulldogs are far from dominant. We are getting a great number here to work with as this is about right on track with recent Missouri closing totals but this one is 10 points lower than the lowest over/under Mississippi St. has seen all season. That alone is worth the play here and the one team with the contrarian value, Missouri, is 9-1 to the over in its last 10 home games following a loss as a favorite while going 23-7 to the over in its last 30 games after two straight games of forcing one or fewer turnovers. It won't take a lot to push this one over the total. 10* Over (315) Mississippi St. Bulldogs/(316) Missouri Tigers

Baylor may be playing with a chip on its shoulder after being picked No. 6 in the first edition of the College Football Playoff Top 25 despite being ranked second in both the AP and USA Today Polls. But despite rolling through everyone the Bears have played, I think the ranking makes sense considering the opposition they have faced. Obviously it is one game at a time and Baylor cannot afford to slip up however the fact it has Oklahoma, Oklahoma St. and TCU on deck could provide a firm lookahead spot. Kansas St. is having a tough season as it is off to a 0-4 start in the Big XII and while the stats do not look good, the Wildcats have shown fight. They lost by just two points at Oklahoma St., seven points against TCU and the loss to Texas was by 14 points but a late touchdown by the Longhorns provided the winning margin. A home loss to Oklahoma was ugly but the Sooners were in a terrific spot there. Kansas St. will be out to avoid a third straight home loss for the first time since 2008. The Wildcats fall into a great situation where we play on underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points after scoring 17 points or less in two straight games going up against an opponent after two straight games where 60 total points or more were scored. This situation is 26-6 ATS (81.2 percent) over the last 10 seasons. This is the most points the Wildcats have seen at home since 2008 and look for a much closer than expected game here. 10* (308) Kansas St. Wildcats

With Toledo losing Tuesday night, Western Michigan is now in the drivers seat in the MAC West, sort of. The Broncos are 4-0 and while they control their own destiny, it is not going to be easy. They face Bowling Green, which was 4-0 going into Wednesday, and then close with consecutive road games at Northern Illinois and at Toledo so after Thursday, the combined record of the final three teams they face is 12-2. That means they cannot slip up here and with the way they are currently playing, that should be no concern. Ball St. is coming off a win on Halloween against Massachusetts which snapped a five-game losing streak. It was not a pretty win though as the Cardinals won by just 10 points against the 1-7 Minutemen and were outgained in doing so. Going back, Ball St. has been outgained in six straight games and that is not a good trend to possess. Additionally, the Cardinals are coming off the luxury of a three-game homestand so this marks their first road game in 26 days. Here, we play against road teams coming off a win over a conference rival as a home underdog going up against an opponent off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival. This situation is 88-46 ATS (65.7 percent) since 1992 with the average point differential being close to three touchdowns. The Cardinals are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game while Western Michigan has covered seven of its last eight games after scoring 37 or more points. 10* (314) Western Michigan Broncos

Bowling Green is playing at an exceptionally high level right now but you have to pay the price to bet them, a huge price. The Falcons have won five straight games, covering four of those, with the lone non-cover coming by just a point. They are in prime position to win the MAC East as they have a two-game cushion. If they beat Ohio, all they need is one more win or one more loss from whomever wins between Buffalo and Kent St. on Thursday. Bowling Green has outscored Massachusetts, Akron and Kent St. 169-48 in its last three games. Ohio was in the mix but has since dropped its last two games and neither were very pretty. The Bobcats are tied with aforementioned Buffalo and Kent St. at 2-2 so a win here is imperative to remain in the hunt. The good news is that for our purposes we are simply looking for a closer game than is expected with what is a very inflated line because of recent results. Stopping the Falcons high flying offense will be a challenge but the Bobcats are not being asked to stop it, just slow it down enough to make it a game. Ohio allows just 370.3 ypg which is 53rd in the nation. The Bobcats are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game while the Falcons are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game. 10* (303) Ohio Bobcats

When these two teams are brought up, the word shootout comes to mind and that has been the case recently for both. The Rockets have gone over the total in two straight games while the Huskies have gone over the total in three straight games. But when it comes to these two playing each other, it has been a lower scoring series with the under coming through in the last three meetings. Both teams do bring in highly potent offenses but they also come in with very underrated defenses and those are the units that should take greater control tonight. Toledo and Northern Illinois are ranked 51st and 52nd respectively in total defense and both the rushing and passing units are equally good. Offensively, they are not as similar but both want to be a run team and establishing the run will be the goal tonight. That is a clock eater and while both teams has been hitting with big plays, that likely will not happen tonight because of the strength of the defenses. Northern Illinois is 16-5 to the under in its last 21 games after gaining 525 or more total ypg over their last three games while Toledo is 22-10 to the under against teams averaging 425 or more ypg. The situation and opponent also calls for a low scoring game as the under is 5-0 in the Huskies last five road games against teams with a winning home record and the under is 12-4 in the Rockets last 16 games against teams with a winning record. 10* Under (301) Northern Illinois/(302) Toledo Rockets

Notre Dame is back in the playoff hunt following its double-digit win over USC two weeks ago. It was a game it feasibly could have lost as the Irish were outgained by 114 total yards but survived thanks to taking advantage of turnovers and blocking a punt for a touchdown. This is just the third road game of the season for Notre Dame and the first two were far from perfect as one was a loss in Clemson while the other was the miracle win in Virginia in the final seconds. Temple has to be the biggest surprise in the nation as it is 7-0 for the first time in team history yet is getting no respect. The Owls are ranked No. 21 in the current AP Poll and amazingly this is the first time in the history of the program that is will be competing as a ranked team against a ranked team. That makes the atmosphere here on Saturday an electric one especially with a team like Notre Dame coming to town in primetime and with ESPN Gameday on campus as well. This is a bad spot yet the Irish are laying double-digits on the road and part of that is because of public love while also the fact that they have covered five straight games which the public loved flocking to. Going back, Notre Dame is 5-20 ATS in its last 25 games after covering the spread in five or six out of their last seven games while going 2-11 ATS in its last 13 road games after gaining 7.25 or more yppl in their previous game. 10* (156) Temple Owls