Sports Picks & Predictions

This is a play on the EAST CAROLINA PIRATES for our CFB Thursday Star Attraction. SMU is 3-2 to start the season with the two losses coming against Big 12 opponents Oklahoma and TCU on the road so no hard, no foul there. Despite those games, the Mustangs have played a schedule ranked No. 103 in the country which shows how bad the rest of the schedule has been as they have defeated a below average Louisiana Tech, Prairie View of the FCS and a very bad Charlotte team while outgaining the 49ers by only 32 total yards. The Mustangs have inflated OVR and DVR numbers based on the schedule and while they have done a good job of not turning the ball over, the defense has only two takeaways. SMU certainly has not done enough to be favored by double digits on the road. It has been a rough start for East Carolina as it is 1-4 without an FBS win but there have been positives. The Pirates are coming off a loss at Rice last game by a touchdown as they outgained the Owls by 114 yards but a redzone turnover led to a Rice touchdown and the offense also failed to score on a drive that ended at the one yard line. There has been progress on offense in both areas after averaging just 252 ypg in its first two games against Michigan and Marshall which just lost its first game this past weekend. The Pirates have played very well defensively as they are ranked No. 59 in overall DVR including No. 8 in rushing DVR which is more impressive considering having played games against Michigan and Appalachian St. 10* (118) East Carolina Pirates

This is a play on the FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL PANTHERS for our CFB Wednesday Enforcer. A season that opened with high expectations is spiraling down for UTEP which has lost four straight games to fall to 1-5 on the season with the only win coming against Incarnate Word of the FCS and that was by only two touchdowns. Injuries have played a big part in this as the Miners have been missing playmakers on offense and last week they were without starting quarterback Gavin Hardison. He should be back but his tendonitis is a big concern as he has not been very good when he has played, completing only 56.6 percent of his passes with five touchdowns and seven interceptions. The starting offense has scored six touchdowns in its last four games with four of those coming against UNLV. UTEP turns it over way too much and does not generate turnovers, producing a -8 margin. Florida International opened the season 3-1 before losing against still undefeated Liberty and then against New Mexico St. last week by 17 points despite being outgained by only 42 yards. The Panthers have been hurt by their own turnovers but unlike the Miners, the defense generate takeaways and they are only -1 in margin. The passing offense struggled against Louisiana Tech in the opener and against Liberty but has averaged 294.3 ypg in their other four games and has a good matchup against a UTEP passing defense allowing 60 percent completions and 7.7 ypa, No. 77 in the country. 10* (108) Florida International Panthers

This is a play on the MIDDLE TENNESSEE ST. BLUE RAIDERS for our CFB Tuesday Supreme Annihilator. We played on Middle Tennessee St. last week and it lost to Jacksonville St. despite outgaining the Gamecocks 563-426 to make it three straight losses. The common theme in those defeats has been turnovers as they have been on the wrong end in all of those and -6 in margin combined. The Blue Raiders are 1-5 with the one win coming against Murray St. of the FCS and to their credit, the schedule has been tough besides that which includes a game against Colorado St. and three road games against Western Kentucky, Alabama and Missouri. They actually outgained the Rams and were outgained by the Tigers by only 31 yards and the Hilltoppers by 71 yards so they have been dominated just once which was against Alabama. Louisiana Tech is off to a 3-4 start and while it rolled over Northwestern St., that was an FCS opponent and the Bulldogs have not looked good in the six FBS games they have played. They got destroyed at SMU 38-14 as the offense mustered only 269 total yards which came after a season opening win against Florida International by only five points. They snapped a two-game losing streak with a big 24-10 win over UTEP but they were outgained by the Miners and benefitted from a punt return for a touchdown and then lost last week against Western Kentucky which was the fourth straight game they have been outgained. 10* (104) Middle Tennessee St. Blue Raiders

This is a play on the CALIFORNIA GOLDEN BEARS for our CFB Late Powerhouse. This game is more evenly matched than what the line is saying as from a statistical standpoint, there is not much. Rushing offense is nearly identical, rushing defense is a difference of just 30 ypg for Oregon St., passing offense is close to identical and passing defense favors the Beavers by only 45 yards. They both convert the same on third down at 41.3 percent and they both allow the same on third down at 31.2 percent. California has played tougher schedule by 10 spots and with all of this Oregon St. comes in as nearly a double-digit favorite and this is due to its impressive win over Utah last week but it was at home however and this presents a big letdown spot for the Beavers with UCLA on deck on top of it. The Golden Bears results are playing into the number as well with their narrow 24-21 win last week against Arizona St. and their 27-point loss to Washington the previous week but the Huskies are proving to be one of the top teams in the country. California is 3-2 which is just one win shy of its wins from all of last season and with 17 starters back, a big improvement was expected. Its other loss came against Auburn by only four points as it outgained the Tigers by 43 yards and had a chance for the win but was intercepts in the redzone. It is time for a marquee win and this could be it and needs to be it with Utah, USC and Oregon on deck but a close game is all we need. 10* (382) California Golden Bears

This is a play on the TEXAS TECH RED RAIDERS for our CFB Star Attraction. Baylor should be 1-4 right now but is coming off an improbable win last week to grab its first victory of the season. The Bears were upset at home against Texas St. to open the season as a 26.5-point favorite, blew a late lead against Utah and then were crushed against Texas with a win over Long Island of the FCS sandwiched in there to open 1-3, all three losses at home. They fell behind 35-7 against UCF last week but scored the final 29 points to pull out the one-point win that was aided by a 72-yard fumble return for a touchdown in what was a possible 14-point swing. Not much was expected this season with just 12 starters back and this is a big letdown spot for Baylor following that victory last week. Texas Tech is also 2-3 but unlike Baylor, its record could be better. Two losses against West Virginia and Wyoming were by a combined nine points and the Red Raiders won the yardage battle in both of those games but were just on the wrong end of the scoreboard and the other loss came against Oregon, arguably one of the best teams in the country, by only eight points as they blew a one-point lead with 1:10 left but allowed a field goal and were driving for their own field goal before a 45-yard pick six sealed the game. They are the better team here based on power rankings and they could not catch Baylor in a worse spot while gaining revenge from a 45-17 shellacking at home last season. 10* (383) Texas Tech Red Raiders

This is a play on the IOWA HAWKEYES for our CFB Supreme Annihilator. We lost with Iowa two weeks ago as it was crushed by Penn St. in an awful call as it managed only 76 yards of offense. The Hawkeyes bounced back last week against Michigan St. but failed to cover and did not look great on offense once again. Part of the problem was quarterback Cade McNamara left the game early and Deacon Hill was forced into action with no preparation and it showed. McNamara is very good so there is not a big downgrade with him being out as Hill brings in a big athletic presence and a week to work with his starting offense to square off against a defense that is bad in both aspects and one of the worst third down defenses in the country. Purdue is off to a 2-3 start and it has looked good only once which came against Virginia Tech and while it was on the road and it outgained the Hokies by 141 total yards and were +2 in turnovers, the Boilermakers only won by a touchdown. They have been crushed in the stats in two games against Fresno St. and Syracuse and while they outgained Wisconsin, it was only by eight yards as turnovers did them in and last week against Illinois, it was a misleading final score as they won by 25 points but outgained the Illini by only 31 total yards. As bad as Iowa has been on offense, it makes up for on defense and Purdue will have its hands full while catching a very small number. 10* (368) Iowa Hawkeyes

This is a play on the LOUISIANA RAGIN' CAJUNS for our CFB Signature Enforcer. Texas St. is one of the bigger surprises in the FBS this season as it is 4-1 and while an opening game upset looked great at the time, it is not looking as impressive now. The Bobcats are coming off a 14-point win over Southern Mississippi last week but it was a skewed final as they outgained the Wolf Pack by just six total yards as they opened the game with a kickoff return for a touchdown. Prior to that, it was a victory over Jackson St. of the FCS and a bad Nevada team that is 0-5 by only 11 points. While the offense has been potent, the defense has not been very good as they are allowing over 400 yards of offense and the Bobcats are allowing opponents to convert on 50 percent of third down conversions, tied for sixth worst in the nation. Louisiana is coming off a loss at Minnesota last week which came as no surprise as a double-digit underdog. The Cajuns are now 3-2 with the other loss coming at Old Dominion on the road and they have blown out their opponents in the three victories. To contend in the SBC West, this is a near must win as they face Troy and South Alabama on the road. Louisiana has the three rushing ypc edges on its side as it is outrushing its opponents by a significant amount, is averaging more ypc on offense than Texas St. and allows fewer ypc on defense than the Bobcats and while that is usually a solid situation for underdogs, that is close to what this line is. 10* (404) Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns

This is a play on the CENTRAL MICHIGAN CHIPPEWAS for our MAC Game of the Year. Central Michigan is 3-2 as it opened MAC play with a win over Eastern Michigan last week and it is now the likely team to contend with Toledo in the MAC East with Northern Illinois losing last week to the Rockets. This is where the Chippewas have to take care of business as the back end of the schedule is brutal as each of their final four games are against teams that are coming off a bye so they will be in for a handful. They are catching a short number here based on the fact all three of their wins have come by four points or less but this is an ideal matchup with strength against weakness. Central Michigan prefers running the ball and faces one of the worst rushing defenses in the entire country here. The Bulls put an end to their four-game losing streak to open the season with a win last week but it was against lowly Akron by only three points and while it was on the road, there is no significant home field edge for the Bulls. They lost both of their games played at home, one in which was a 28-point loss to Liberty and the other against Fordham of the FCS which is one of the lower ranked teams in that division. Buffalo did lost to Louisiana on the road by only seven points but it was dominated as the Cajuns hurt themselves with three turnovers. The Bulls did a good job against the Akron running game but the Zips are one of the worst rushing teams in the country. 10* (349) Central Michigan Chippewas

This is a play on the ARMY BLACK KNIGHTS for our CFB Afternoon Dominator. This is a great spot and a great number for Army as it comes in at 2-2. The Black Knights are coming off a bye week following a pair of road games where they split against UTSA and Syracuse and this marks their first home game in a month and just their second on the season. The first one was not a real test as it came against Delaware St. of the FCS but they did what they had to do in a 57-0 win. The other loss came against ULM by four points as they committed five turnovers and that is usually impossible to recover from. Boston College has been involved in four games decided by three points or less, going 2-2 and all of those games were at home. The Eagles lost their opener to Northern Illinois and then snuck out a win over Holy Cross the following week. The surprise came as they lost to Florida St. by only two points but the Seminoles were in a travel spot no ACC team prefers and they has Clemson on deck so that was a situational result more than a talent one. The Eagles snuck past a very bad Virginia team last week despite committing four turnovers so they were fortunate with that giveaway number. This is just their second road game of the season, the first resulting in a 28-point loss at Louisville and while we are not putting Army in the same category as the Cardinals, the linemakers are not either with this number being 11 points less. 10* (332) Army Black Knights

This is a play on the RUTGERS SCARLET KNIGHTS for our CFB Ultimate Underdog. Rutgers opened the season with three home wins over teams that will likely not see a bowl game and all currently sit at 2-3. While they were not tested, the Scarlet Knights rolled in all three of those games so they took care of business before going to Michigan in a tough spot with head coach Jim Harbaugh coming back for his first game. They did not play poorly as they hung in for most of the game but wore down as Michigan controlled the clock for over 12 minutes more. Rutgers go some positive momentum back last week with a blowout against Wagner of the FCS before heading to another tough environment but they are catching an inflated number against an overvalued team. Wisconsin does have the advantage of coming off a bye week following a blowout win against Purdue to open Big Ten action. That was the Badgers send straight win by 21 points, the first coming against Georgia Southern, but they hardly dominated either of those games. They were outgained by the Eagles by four yards and outgained by the Boilermakers by five yards but had a +8 turnover margin combined which made the difference. Those skewed final scores play into future numbers and that is the case here with Wisconsin having the yardage advantage in only one of four games which came in the opener against Buffalo. They have a slight rushing edge on offense but they allow more ypc than Rutgers with the Scarlet Knights also having the better rushing margin. 10* (365) Rutgers Scarlet Knights

This is a play on the OKLAHOMA ST. COWBOYS for our CFB Friday Primetime Dominator. Oklahoma St. is coming off a pair of losses following a 2-0 start that was pretty unimpressive anyway. The Cowboys put up a good effort against Iowa St. in their last game as they were outgained by only 13 total yards but as was the case in their other loss against South Alabama, turnovers hurt them as they were on the wrong end in both games 2-0. Quarterback Alan Bowman is coming off his best game even though he tossed a pair of picks and he has a decent matchup here against a defense allowing 237.8 ypg on a 62 percent completion rate. The running game has been adequate and they are putting up an average of 4.2 ypc and while the Wildcats are allowing only 73.2 ypg, teams have not ran the ball as the 29 attempts per game are tenth fewest in the country. Kansas St. bounced back from a tough loss against Missouri to roll past UCF but are now laying a much bigger number on the road than it was at home which is about an 11-point swing. The Wildcats offense has been producing at a high level but with a big chunk coming against SE Missouri St. of the FCS. Oklahoma St. has been playing well on defense despite the last two games points allowed as it allows just 3.9 ypc on the ground and 222 ypg on 7.4 ypa through the air. This is a big payback spot with the Cowboys losing in Manhattan last season 48-0 so it will be an amped environment in a primetime Friday game. Here, we play against teams averaging 6.2 or more yppl and after allowing 6.75 or more yppl in two consecutive games going up against a team allowing between 5.6 and 6.2 yppl. This situation is 39-10 ATS (79.6 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (316) Oklahoma St. Cowboys

This is a play on the WESTERN KENTCUKY HILLTOPPERS for our CFB Thursday Enforcer. Louisiana Tech is off to a 3-3 start and while it rolled over Northwestern St., that was an FCS opponent and the Bulldogs have not looked good in the five FBS games they have played. They got destroyed at SMU 38-14 as the offense mustered only 269 total yards which came after a season opening win against Florida International by only five points. They snapped a two-game losing streak with a big 24-10 win over UTEP but they were outgained by the Miners and benefitted from a punt return for a touchdown and that was the third straight game they have been outgained. Jack Turner has taken over at quarterback for the injured Hank Bachmeier who is questionable again and Turner has not been very good. The rushing attack averages 152 ypg on 4.7 ypc but that is severely skewed after gashing Northwestern St. for 367 on 38 carries (9.7 ypc) so the averages are 137 ypg on 38 carries per game (3.6 ypc) in their five FBS games. Western Kentucky also snapped a two-game slide with a win over Middle Tennessee St. and overall the Hilltoppers have played a schedule ranked 40 spots higher than that of Louisiana Tech which has played the sixth easiest schedule of all FBS teams in action this week. The offense has been fine with the exception of the Ohio St. game and while quarterback Austin Reed has not as potent as last season, he has been really good completing 61.6 percent of his passes for 1,361 yards with 11 touchdowns and two interceptions. The Rushing offense has not done much with 96.8 ypg but faces a Bulldogs defense that is allowing 226.2 ypg on 5.2 ypc. 10* (309) Western Kentucky Hilltoppers

This is a play on the MIDDLE TENNESSEE BLUE RAIDERS for our CFB Wednesday Star Attraction. We played against Jacksonville St. last Thursday and had a brutal beat with Sam Houston St. as it allowed a touchdown and two-point conversion with 13 seconds left that sent the game into overtime with the Gamecocks scoring the lone touchdown to cover by a half-point. Jacksonville St. is now 4-1 on the season but it has played the second easiest schedule ahead of only New Mexico St. Despite scoring 35 points last week, 21 were in the first 59:47 and it had not scored more than 21 points in any other of its FBS wins and now hits the road for a second straight week where its only loss of the season occurred at Coastal Carolina. The Gamecocks have benefitted from a +7 turnover margin and they have been outgained in three of their four games against FBS opponents. Middle Tennessee St. is on the opposite end of the records as it is 1-4 following a loss at Western Kentucky last week. The one win came against Murray St. of the FCS and to its credit, the schedule has been brutal besides that which includes a game against Colorado St. and two road games against Alabama and Missouri. The Blue Raiders have faced from excellent offenses yet the defense is holding its own to a degree, ranked No. 75 in yards allowed and No. 76 in yppl. As said, the Jacksonville St. offense has done nothing special even against a weak slate as it is ranked No. 72 in ypg and No. 82 in yppl. The weakness of the Middle Tennessee St. defense has been against the pass but the Gamecocks are No. 125 in passing ypg and No. 118 in ypa. 10* (302) Middle Tennessee St. Blue Raiders

This is a play on the UL-MONROE WARHAWKS for our CFB Signature Enforcer. Appalachian St. is coming off a disheartening loss last week in Laramie as it was up by five points late in the game but had a field goal blocked and returned for a touchdown and Wyoming went up by three points following the two-point conversion. The Mountaineers were driving again and were likely going to have a chance to tie but suffered a redzone interception and they fell to 2-2 on the season. The did dominate Wyoming in the stats and while that typically puts a team into a good spot in the next game, they go from a slight underdog to an overpriced road favorite based on name and program. Appalachian St. also falls into the worst of all rushing situations, allowing more ypc than gaining, gaining fewer ypc than opponent and allowing more ypc than opponent allows. UL-Monroe opened the season 2-0 and while one of those wins came against Lamar of the FCS, the Warhawks opened the season with a solid win over Army, part of their 2-0 home record. They are coming off a blowout loss at Texas A&M in their last game but had a bye last week to regroup from that defeat. The passing game has been a concern but they did not have to thrown in the first two games with a strong running attack and did not have a chance against the Aggies as they ran only 48 plays total compared to 73 for Texas A&M. 10* (196) UL-Monroe Warhawks

This is a play on the TROY TROJANS for our CFB Supreme Annihilator. We are seeing a reverse line move here with a big majority of money being on Georgia St. but seeing the go the other way. It has been a 2-2 start for Troy after winning 11 straight games to close last season and it has had some tough luck to its .500 start. While the scoreboard showed just a three-point win over Western Kentucky last week, the Trojans won the yardage battle 521-288 and its loss in the previous game against James Madison, it was by only two points with the yardage being equal. While they did lose to Kansas St. by 29 points, the game was a lot closer than that and it has been the same story in all four games, losing the turnover battle in all four and by a combined 10-4. Georgia St. is 4-0 following a win last Thursday against Coastal Carolina which is another oddity we are seeing a line drop because of the extra rest and return home. The Panthers were actually outgained 402-388 last week and were also outgained by Rhode Island of the FCS in their season opener. Overall, they are only +43 ypg in differential which is a very low positive variance for an undefeated team but unlike Troy, they have benefitted from a positive turnover differential of 7-2. A lot of this has to do with the schedule as Georgia St. has played the No. 157 ranked schedule compared to a No. 72 ranked slate for Troy. 10* (131) Troy Trojans

This is a play on the IOWA ST. CYCLONES for our CFB Star Attraction. Iowa St. bounced back from a pair of tough one possession losses against Iowa and Ohio with a solid win against Oklahoma St. last week to improve to 2-2. The offense had its biggest output of the season against the Cowboys as quarterback Rocco Becht is finding some rhythm after taking over for Hunter Dekkers who was charged with tampering amid the sports gambling investigation as he threw for a career high 348 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions. The defense is once again leading the way as the Cyclones are No. 19 in the nation, allowing 299 ypg which is split right between the previous two seasons while giving up only 16.5 ppg, four ppg fewer than both 2022 and 2021. Oklahoma is off to a 4-0 start following a lackluster effort against Cincinnati last week and while that could normally be a motivator, the real motivation awaits. The Sooners have the Red River Showdown against Texas on deck next week and there is extra juice for that one after getting shutout 49-0 last season, the most points allowed by Oklahoma in the entire 117- game series history. They are now favored by more points against a conference opponent than they were in their last home game against SMU despite Iowa St. and SMU ranked just one spot apart from each other. Too many to lay here. 10* (187) Iowa St. Cyclones

This is a play on the STANFORD CARDINAL for our Saturday Free Play. Oregon is coming off a blowout win at home over Colorado last week and while it was a big favorite, it came with a lot of hype and the Ducks were out to prove a point which they did. Now, they hit the road in a big letdown spot with a bye on deck followed by a massive road game at Washington after that. The thought is to get out of here unscathed with the meat of the schedule upcoming. Oregon has vaulted up to No. 9 in the AP Poll which is a factor in the big number as is the fact the Ducks are a perfect 4-0 ATS while covering those games by an average of 12.8 ppg. Stanford opened the season with a big win at Hawaii but has dropped three straight games including a pair in the Pac 12. The Cardinal are coming off a one point loss against Arizona last week in a back and forth game that was clean on both sides with no turnovers. In the previous two losses, Stanford gave it up five times and it can ill afford to do that in this matchup against one of the most powerful offenses in the country. One big thing that Stanford has been able to is run the ball as it is averaging 163.8 ypg on 4.3 ypc and success in that area can shorten the game which is important when backing a big underdog. Overall, the Cardinal have faced a schedule ranked No. 60 compared to Oregon which has played a slate ranked No. 108. Even with the massive number, Oregon is going to be a big public play this week after everyone watched them torch the Buffaloes last week and we will see nothing close to the same inspired effort from last Saturday. Play (174) Stanford Cardinal

Fargo is coming off win with Detroit to open Week 4 and he is on a POTENT 12-7 NFL Run! The NFL Regular and Postseason record is 79-55-1 (+$18,750) since the start of last season and Week 4 is loaded for another MASSIVE weekend with FIVE Sunday-Monday Winners! CFB off a win with NC State and SEVEN Saturday Winners!

This is a play on the HAWAII WARRIORS for our CFB Ultimate Underdog. We won Hawaii in its opener in Week 0 as it hung tough in a long trip east against Vanderbilt where it lost by just a touchdown. The Warriors are 2-2 in their other four games, losing those two games to Pac 12 teams so their losses have been more than expected coming against Power 5 teams. They jump into conference action with a very favorable schedule and they can put it all out here with a bye week on deck. The passing game has been strong with quarterback Brayden Schager, who is averaging 269.6 ypg while completing 64 percent of his passes with 12 touchdowns which is just one less than all of last season. UNLV is off to a 3-1 start but it is a skewed record. The Rebels defeated Bryant of the FCS despite being dead even in total yardage and another win came against Vanderbilt where they got outgained so based on expected simulated outcomes, they could be 1-3. Now UNLV is laying double digits against an FBS team for just the fourth time in five years and failed to cover any of the previous three times. A game against Michigan has strengthened their schedule but it still comes in ranked No. 132 in the country and while the offense is balanced which is a strength, the passing game is not good as they are completing only 57.9 percent of their passes with one touchdown against FBS teams. 10* (169) Hawaii Warriors

This is a play on the VANDERBILT COMMODORES for our CFB Powerhouse Play. Missouri is great fade material this week with significant factors on both sides favoring the home team. The Tigers won for us two weeks ago as they nailed a game winning 61-yard field goal to upset Kansas St. and they followed that up with a win over Memphis last week. Now they fall into a tough spot that is twofold. With the 4-0 start, Missouri cracked the AP Top 25 for the first time since 2019 when it got as high as No. 22 and it is currently one spot below that and it is always a good play against opportunity to play teams entering the poll this far into the season. Additionally, this is the Tigers first true road game of the season and are being asked to win by two touchdowns. Things have not been as good for Vanderbilt as it opened 2-0 but has lost three straight games although those have been misleading. The Commodores lost to Wake Forest by 16 points but were outgained by only 61 total yards, lost to UNLV by just three points but outgained the Rebels by 24 total yards and lost to Kentucky by 17 points despite getting outgained by only 37 total yards as the Wildcats scored two defensive touchdowns. The common theme in all three losses were they were negative in turnovers and -5 combined. Vanderbilt is 0-5 ATS as well which automatically adds value, especially at home at this price. 10* (204) Vanderbilt Commodores

This is a play on the NAVY MIDSHIPMEN for our AAC Game of the Year. South Florida came into the season with no expectations, picked to finish at or near the bottom of the AAC and coming off a record of 4-29 over the last three seasons combined. The Bulls have already gotten halfway to that combined total as they are 2-2 following a win over Rice last week. The one thing they do have in their favor is a closer than expected loss to Alabama as it was defeated by score of just 17-3 but the Tide are not the same Tide. The other victory came against Florida A&M of the FCS by two touchdowns but were outgained 393-360 but had a 5-0 turnover advantage. South Florida is coming off three straight home games and lost its only road game by 17 points at Western Kentucky. Navy was crushed by Notre Dame in its opening game in Ireland and then followed that up with a ho hum win over FCS Wagner. The Midshipmen did not get a scheduling break as they had to face Memphis on a short week the next Thursday but still played well in a four-point loss, outgaining the Tigers 432-408. The break comes this week however as they are coming off their bye week following a grueling early stretch even though it was only three games. The offensive running game should be the difference and defensively, they face an offensive line that has allowed 19 sacks, tied for second most in the nation. 10* (180) Navy Midshipmen

This is a play on the CONNECTICUT HUSKIES for our CFB Afternoon Dominator. We backed Connecticut in its season opener at home against NC State but have held back since then which has been the right move as the Huskies are off to a 0-4 start and have failed to cover the last three games. This is the third straight home game for Connecticut and while it should have defeated Florida International, the Huskies were destroyed by Duke last week. it was a bad 34-point loss, but against a very good team and now they go down in similar class yet are catching a bigger than expected number at home. This team is loaded with experience so there should be no quit and this has turned into a must win if they want to have any chance of heading back to a bowl game. Utah St. has not fared much better as it is off to a 1-3 start with the only win coming against Idaho St. of the FCS. The Aggies go from underdogs in all three FBS games to a favorite and on the road in what has been a rugged schedule start. They do not have a bye until the end of October and have alternated home and road games to start the season meaning travel every week and now they go from Logan all the way to the east coast for an early start. Utah St. has had no running game, rushing for just 268 yards on 81 carries (3.3 ypc) against FBS opponents and the Huskies have shored up their rushing defense the last two games. 10* (128) Connecticut Huskies

This is a play on the NC STATE WOLFPACK for our CFB Friday Enforcer. NC State moved to 3-1 with a road win at Virginia last Friday and the Wolfpack head back home for their second true test. They lost to Notre Dame by 21 points in their only home game against an FBS opponent and that loss against the spread is part of their 0-4 ATS record on the season. That is adding value here with NC State coming in as the underdog at home. Intangibles can be looked at this point into the season and NC State has been great on third down as it has converted 51.6 percent on offense while allowing just a 30 percent conversion rate on defense and that 21.6 percent disparity is ninth most in the FBS. Conversely, Louisville is with a positive percentage but only 5.6 percent which is good for only No. 53. The schedule can certainly play a role in these but the ranking of the two teams is only 12 spots apart. The Cardinals are 4-0 but the schedule setup tells a lot. They rolled over Murray St. is their non-FBS game while they struggled to put away both Georgia Tech and Indiana which were both away from home and decided by a combined 12 points. Louisville did roll past Boston College last week but that was at home and it was a letdown game for the Eagles coming off a near upset against Florida St. The Cardinals first three FBS have been against teams ranked at least 30 spots lower in the power rankings than NC State. Louisville has done a great job running ball as it is averaging 237.2 ypg on 6.0 ypc but face a defense that is allowing just 114.5 ypg on 3.7 ypc so this is the Cardinals biggest test on that front. 10* (114) NC State Wolfpack

This is a play on the SAM HOUSTON ST. BEARKATS for our CFB Thursday Star Attraction. The transition to the FBS has not been a good one for Sam Houston St. as it is off to a 0-3 start with the early schedule going totally against it. The Bearkats have yet to play a game at their campus home as they have had two true road games against BYU and Houston along with a neutral site game against Air Force and this has amounted to the No. 6 hardest schedule in the country. The offense has suffered as it has been horrid as the unit is last in success rate, yards per play and points per game this season but they finally get a break playing at home and going up against an opponent that has a much different start. Jacksonville St. is 3-1 but its schedule has been the complete opposite as it is ranked No. 168 in strength. The Gamecocks have played three of its four games at home including one against an FCS opponent as it lost by 14 points in its only road game at Coastal Carolina. Jacksonville St. has offensive questions of its own, yet to score more than 21 points against an FBS foe and this despite having a +9 turnover margin which is No. 2 in the country behind Penn St. so it has not been able to take advantage of this to go along with the soft schedule. This is not an explosive offense as the Gamecocks grind it out on the ground as they average 50 carries per game which is third most behind Air Force and Army and that has put the total as a ridiculously low 36.5 which favors the underdog at an inflated price. When factoring in the strength of schedule and other metrics, this line should be closer to a pickem than a touchdown. 10* (108) Sam Houston St. Bearkats

This is a play on the ARIZONA ST. SUN DEVILS for our CFB Star Attraction. USC comes in as a massive favorite which comes as no surprise as the Trojans have rolled the competition in their 3-0 start. They are averaging 59.3 ppg but they have not been tested as the last two games have come against Nevada and Stanford, ranked No. 132 and No. 105 respectively. The first game was against San Jose St. which was the best of the three at No. 78 and the Spartans were able to keep it close for a while and put up 28 points against this suspect defense. This will be their toughest opponent since then and the situation is not in their favor. USC is coming off a bye week which is insignificant here as its last two games can be constituted as byes and now the trojans hit the road for the first time with a game at Colorado on deck, also on the road. Arizona St. is off to a 1-2 start as it snuck by Southern Utah of the FCS in its opener and then lost to Oklahoma St. 27-15 before getting shutout last week against Fresno St. 29-0. The Bulldogs are a very underrated 3-0 but even with that, the Sun Devils gave the game away by losing the turnover battle 8-0 and no team is going to compete with a differential like that. To their credit, the defense played well, allowing just 350 yards of offense and holding Fresno St. to seven field goal attempts. Here, we play against teams with a turnover differential of +0.75 per game or better and after a game with a turnover margin of +3 or better going up against teams with a turnover differential of -0.75 per game or worse. This situation is 26-7 ATS (78.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (370) Arizona St. Sun Devils

This is a play on the IOWA HAWKEYES for our Big 10 Game of the Month. One of the late marquee matchups takes place in Happy Valley with Penn St. and Iowa squaring off in a big early conference showdown. The Nittany Lions are 3-0 while covering all three of those games which includes a win at Illinois last week in their Big Ten opener by a score of 30-13 but that was a misleading final. Penn St. won the yardage battle by just 29 total yards but were +5 in turnovers which completely skewed the game and the big win and cover are inflating this line which should be single digits according to our numbers. The Nittany Lions are ranked No. 7 in our rankings which is equivalent to the biased AP Poll while Iowa comes in No. 20, higher than its No. 24 ranking in the AP Poll. This place in tough at night for opponents but this has never been a good matchup for Penn St. and it should be another epic battle. Iowa is also 3-0 and while its wins are not as big, they have been equally impressive considering the schedule ranks are separated by only nine spots so the level of competition has been very similar. The offense came to life last week which was big for the confidence of this team as they were finally able to get a running game going. It will not be easy here but the Hawkeyes still bank on one of the top defenses in the country that has allowed just 12.3 ppg and faces an offense whose numbers are inflated by a 63-7 win over Delaware. Here, we play on road teams with a scoring defense allowing 14 or fewer ppg, after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games. This situation is 29-7 ATS (80.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (425) Iowa Hawkeyes

This is a play on the NEVADA WOLF PACK for our CFB Ultimate Underdog. Texas St. opened the season with one of the biggest upsets of the season as it won at Baylor by 11 points as a 26.5-point underdog which immediately put the Bobcats on the map. They followed that up with a loss against UTSA by a touchdown but they were outgained by 130 total yards as it really should not have been that close. Texas St. bounced back with a resounding 77-34 win last week but that was against Jackson St. of the FCS but the Tigers are not a very good team even from that division. That victory has propelled this line to nearly the same as they were favored by last week which is a complete overreaction even though it comes against a winless team. Nevada is off to a 0-3 start that does include a loss against Idaho of the FCS but the Vandals are actually one of the best teams there, ranked No. 4 in power rating among FCS teams. The Wolf Pack were thumped by USC which is not a concern as they were 38-point underdogs and they are coming off their best effort last week as they lost to Kansas by just a touchdown that was not decided until late in the fourth quarter and they closed as four-touchdown underdogs. Texas St. has consecutive road SBC games on deck which put it in a tough spot coming off a feel good about itself win and going into a lookahead situation while facing a nonconference opponent. Here, we play on road underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points off 2 or more consecutive unders and getting outscored by opponents by seven or more ppg on the season. This situation is 34-9 ATS (79.1 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (397) Nevada Wolf Pack

This is a play on the CENTRAL MICHIGAN CHIPPEWAS for our CFB Signature Enforcer. South Alabama is coming off a 10-3 season and comes into this campaign as the leading contender in the SBC West. The Jaguars are 2-1 to start the season and coming off a huge upset against Oklahoma St. last week as they won 33-7 as one touchdown underdogs with many calling it the biggest win in program history and that has inflated this number which is off by five points according to our numbers. South Alabama is a loaded team that brought back 18 starters but three key starters are out as its second leading running back from last season. The Jaguars had three home games last season following a road win and while they won all three, two were by just a touchdown as over two touchdown favorites and they open conference action next week on the road at James Madison. Central Michigan is 1-2 with bookend losses at Michigan St. and Notre Dame sandwiched around a win against New Hampshire of the FCS. The Chippewas have not done much in the passing game but this is a run first offense that brought back four of their top five rushers from last season. One of those is quarterback Bert Emanuel Jr. but he missed the game last week against Notre Dame due to illness but will be back this week. He was the MAC West Offensive Play of the Week two weeks ago. Here, we play on road underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points after allowing 6.25 or more yppl in their previous game, returning five or less offensive starters going up against teams returning eight or more defensive starters. This situation is 24-4 ATS (85.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (395) Central Michigan Chippewas

This is a play on the MICHIGAN ST. SPARTANS for our CFB Supreme Annihilator. Michigan St. opened the season with a pair of wins over Central Michigan and Richmond but it has all come crashing down. The Spartans were involved in the first big scandal of the college football season with head coach Mel Tucker being suspended last week, and eventually fired this week, and they were no match for Washington which came into East Lansing and rolled 41-7. Michigan St. clearly did not show up as it was unable to move the ball and while the defense was torched through the air, the distractions were too much against one of the best teams in the country. They remain home to host their conference opener which will be their last home game in a month and the line has moved in their direction and is inflated. The Terrapins are off to a 3-0 start but those wins were against Towson of the FCS, Charlotte and Virginia, the latter two ranked No. 149 and No. 110 respectively. Michigan St. is ranked No. 51 which is not good by its standards but easily the best team Maryland has faced. Additionally, all three of those games were at home and Maryland has been a suspect road team of late, going 7-17 in its last 24 road games. Quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa has gotten off to good start with 889 yards passing just at just a 66 percent slip while throwing only five touchdowns and two interceptions. Here, we play against road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points averaging 34 or more ppg and after scoring 37 points or more last game going up against teams allowing between 16 and 21 ppg. This situation is 28-7 ATS (80 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (380) Michigan St. Spartans

This is a play on the BALL ST. CARDINALS for our CFB Upset Special. This is an interesting scenario where Georgia Southern has a positive misleading factor in its favor but also a few negatives that may not be taken into account with this number. It is coming off its first loss of the season against Wisconsin by 21 points but it was a misleading final as the Eagles won the yardage battle but lost the turnover margin 6-0 and no team can recover from that. While they did outgain the Badgers, Wisconsin is not a good team so the fact that yardage advantage happened should be no surprise. The two victories came against The Citadel of the FCS and a pretty bad UAB team and overall, Georgia Southern has played a schedule ranked No. 160. Ball St. opened the season as tough as it can get and even though many are calling the SEC being in a down year, the Cardinals went on the road the first two weeks at Kentucky and Georgia so going 0-2 was a given. They bounced back with a win last week against Indiana St. of the FCS which is far from a quality win but it provided confidence and a chance to cure the ills. Ball St. has played the No. 9 ranked schedule. They got a spark from the running game and will utilize that here against an Eagles defense that was torched last week on the ground and while that might not be a surprise, The Citadel did the same in the opener. Here, we play against road favorites averaging 440 or more ypg and after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game going up against a team allowing between 330 and 390 ypg. This situation is 86-41 ATS (67.7 percent) since 1992. 10* (350) Ball St. Cardinals

This is a play on the CLEMSON TIGERS for our CFB Afternoon Dominator. One of the marquee games of the weekend will go a long way in which teams are going to make it to the ACC Championship. Florida St. will have the inside track with a win here as it could hand Clemson two conference losses and early money is banking on that happening but we do not see it. The Seminoles already own a big quality win over LSU which bodes well as far as having the experience of favoring a power opponent and winning for that matter. Obviously, the Seminoles looked horrible last week against lowly Boston College but we are not banking any of that on this play as they were clearly in lookahead mode. The big factor is the matchup as any strength they have is negated by the opposite strength from Clemson. The Tigers opened the season with a bad loss against Duke and not bad because it was Duke because the Blue Devils are an excellent team, but bad from the standpoint where they basically lost the game on their own. Clemson outgained Duke 422-374 but costly turnovers in the wrong places did them in. They have rebounded with a pair of winners over much lesser teams but that is not a bad thing as the Tigers have been able to get those kinks out. The home field edge will come into play here and it would be even more so if it was at night but it is still a great schedule spot. Here, we play on teams where the line is +3 to -3 averaging 34 or more ppg and after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games going up against teams allowing between 21 and 28 ppg. This situation is 45-16 ATS (73.8 percent) since 1992. 10* (336) Clemson Tigers

This is a play on the SAN JOSE ST. SPARTANS for our CFB Friday Enforcer. All four games on Friday feature home underdogs and the shortest of the bunch is San Jose St. and it is no surprise that Air Force is dominating the early money but this line is low for a reason and betting on just the record will be the popular play here. San Jose St. is off to a 1-3 start during nonconference action with the only win coming against Cal Poly of the FCS. Two of those losses were against USC and Oregon St. from the Pac 12 with the latter being a sleeper contender, and Toledo, which is a top contender in the MAC. While the talent level in the conference is not top notch, quarterback Chevan Cordeiro is one of the top signal callers in the MWC as he is a Preseason Second Team selection after a very underrated season a year ago where he threw for 3,251 yards with 23 touchdowns and six interceptions. Overall, nine starters on offense are back. Air Force is off to a 3-0 start and has dominated everywhere but it has played no one. The Falcons are a top team in the conference no doubt and have won eight straight games going back to last season but this is definitely a challenge. They have played Robert Morris of the FCS, San Houston St. which is one year removed from the FCS and a rebuilding Utah St. team so this is easily the first real test and it comes in their first true road game. The Falcons are dominating on the ground as per usual but gone from last season is quarterback Haaziq Daniels who was a three-year starter and ran the triple option to perfection. San Jose. St. has five starters back on defense and while it will not be easy, they can slow it down. Here, we play against road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points off a home win by 17 points or more, in the first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with three or more straight wins. This situation is 29-7 ATS (80.6 percent) since 1992. 10* (314) San Jose St. Spartans

This is a play on the COASTAL CAROLINA CHANTICLEERS for our CFB Thursday Star Attraction. Georgia St. is off to a 3-0 start with both FBS wins coming by at least 16 points. The Panthers have yet to be tested and they did get a scare in their opener against Rhode Island of the FCS as they won by a touchdown with the difference maker ending being an interception returned for a score. They are coming off their first road game of the season which came against a bad Charlotte team that is expected to finish near the bottom of the 14-team AAC. A bright spot was quarterback Darren Grainger who went off for 466 yards on 27-33 passing and three touchdowns. He will be facing a much tougher test against a Coastal Carolina defense that is allowing just 202 ypg passing on only 55.4 percent completions. The Chanticleers rolled over Duquesne last week in their FCS game and while that was not a good indicator of what to expect, they do have one solid opponent they have played. Coastal Carolina went to UCLA and played the Bruins tough as they fell 27-13 and it was a one-point game going into the fourth quarter and just a one possession game with less than six minutes remaining. That made it four straight losses for the Chanticleers going back to last season but all of those game were away from home and they have rolled in their two home games since and going back, the SBC contenders are 21-2 in their last 23 home games with one of those losses coming against Georgia St. two years ago by two points. As a matter of fact, these teams have met over the last six years with the home team yet to win and that streak finally comes to an end this season behind the best player on the field in quarterback Grayson McCall who can show his stuff in a stand alone game. 10* (304) Coastal Carolina Chanticleers

This is a play on the WYOMING COWBOYS for our CFB Ultimate Underdog. Wyoming has quietly put together two straight winning seasons and over the last seven seasons, the Cowboys have finished below .500 only once and that was the 2-4 COVID season in 2020. Head coach Craig Bohl has turned the program around and Wyoming should be better this season as it returns 15 starters including 10 from an already strong defense. They opened the season with an impressive come-from-behind win over Texas Tech in double overtime as they rallied from a 17-0 deficit. Wyoming followed that up with a less than impressive win over Portland St. by 14 points but a letdown was not a surprise especially with this game on deck. While this is their first road game, the spot and line set up great. Texas is coming off a monumental win at Alabama last week to improve to 2-0 and it has moved up to No. 4 in the AP Poll and in its own letdown spot this week with its Big XII opener on deck next week at Baylor. To their credit last season, they rolled over UTSA following their one point loss against Alabama but a loss is different than a win and that certainly affects the future line going forward. The Longhorns have played mistake free football as they have yet to turn it over, going +5 in turnover margin and while they were able to move the ball well against the Crimson Tide, they go up against a sneaky good defense here. 10* (201) Wyoming Cowboys

This is a play on the GEORGIA TECH YELLOW JACKETS for our CFB Star Attraction. Mississippi is coming off a fight last week at Tulane as it was a misleading final score. The Rebels were up by just one touchdown with less than two minutes remaining and were able to make it a two-score game on a 56-yard field goal and then scored on a fumble recovery to seal it. They outgained the Green Wave by only 21 total yards and this outcome probably would have been a lot different has Tulane quarterback Michael Pratt been able to play. That score result as well as the 73-7 shellacking of Mercer to open the season is inflating this number and it continued to rise after opening. Mississippi will not have an easy out here and with Alabama on deck, there could very well be a look ahead. Georgia Tech is 1-1 as it opened with a tough five-point loss against Louisville as it won the yardage battle but was -1 in turnovers and then bounced back last week with a 48-13 win over South Carolina St. Even though that was an FCS opponent, the Yellow Jackets have to feel good about their offense that has already scored more points in both games than they did in 11 games last season. This is nearly an identical situation as last year when it won an FCS game and then faced Mississippi only to lose 42-0 but that was with Geoff Collins as head coach who was fired immediately after. Brent Key has this team believing and is 5-5 since taking over with two of those losses coming by one possession. 10* (189) Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

This is a play on the ARKANSAS RAZORBACKS for our CFB Supreme Annihilator. Arkansas went through the motions last week against an undermanned Kent St. team and won by a score of just 28-6. The Razorbacks are 2-0 as they were favored by 38 points in both of those games and this is an important game to put together a solid effort on both sides of the ball. It is a brutal stretch coming up with four games against LSU, Texas A&M, Mississippi and Alabama with none of those taking place at home. The Razorbacks have held Western Carolina and Kent St. to 102 yards rushing on 65 carries (1.6 ypc) and while this will be a bigger test, it is not that much of a challenge coming in. Quarterback K.J. Jefferson has been efficient as he has completed nearly 74 percent of his passes for 382 yards with five touchdowns and no interceptions. BYU is also 2-0 but it is an unimpressive 2-0. The Cougars narrowly defeated Sam Houston St. 14-0, its first year at the FBS level, and then took out Southern Utah 41-16 last week but they outgained the Thunderbirds by only 48 total yards. They are led by quarterback Keydon Slovis who is with his third program in three years and he has been average fitting into another new system, completing just over 64 percent of his passes with four touchdowns and one interception. The running game has been non-existent as BYU has rushed for 158 yards on 57 carries (2.8 ypc). Tough atmosphere in the first night game in Fayetteville this season. 10* (198) Arkansas Razorbacks

This is a play on the FLORIDA GATORS for our SEC Game of the Month. Florida caught a tough scheduling break to open the season as it had to travel to Utah which came in on a 27-2 run its last 29 home games. The No. 10 ranked defensive line in the country held the Gators to 13 yards rushing on 20 carries and without that, they could get nothing going. Quarterback Graham Mertz played a solid game going 31-44 for 333 yards with one touchdown and one interception. Florida got its game together last week against McNeese St. and while it was far from a test, it got the needed reps to get the balance back and rushed for 327 yards with Mertz not needed and not playing the whole game. He can light this Tennessee defense up as the Volunteers were No. 128 last season in passing defense and came into this season with the No. 8 ranked secondary in the SEC. Tennessee had no issue with Virginia to open the season but came out slow last week against Austin Peay and won by a score of just 30-13. Call it a possible lookahead to this game but giving up 260 yards passing to the Governors is uncalled for. Quarterback Joe Milton III is still inaccurate while he did not play well in his lone road start at Vanderbilt and this is a much tougher test. The Volunteers will try and establish the run where it has been pretty average and Florida has been solid in both game stopping the run as it improved its talent along the front seven in the transfer portal. Upset alert in Gainesville. 10* (176) Florida Gators

This is a play on the NORTH TEXAS MEAN GREEN for our CFB Upset Special. North Texas came up small for us last week as the Mean Green lost to Florida International by a touchdown despite outgaining the Panthers as turnovers did them in. Three to be exact including an interception that was returned 40 yards for a touchdown. North Texas now goes from an 11.5-point road favorite to a 4.5-point road underdog against a team that is not 15 points better. The 0-2 start is playing into the line which is an overreaction. The defense has been bad over the first two games but they face an offense that has struggled against FBS foes and with a bye week on deck, full focus will be on display. Louisiana Tech is off to a 2-1 start and while it rolled over Northwestern St. last week, that was an FCS opponent and the Bulldogs have not looked good in the two FBS games they have played. They got destroyed at SMU 38-14 as the offense mustered only 269 total yards which came after a season opening win against Florida International by five points. They did win the yardage battle by a 268 yards but they struggled in key situations which led to five field goal attempts while committing a pair of costly turnovers. This is the first season for quarterback Hank Bachmeier who is a transfer from Boise St. and he has regressed each game while completing 67 percent of his passes for 684 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions. 10* (179) North Texas Mean Green

This is a play on the EAST CAROLINA PIRATES for our CFB Signature Enforcer. East Carolina has started 0-2 but it has been a tale of two different scenarios. The Pirates went to Ann Arbor and hung around admirably against Michigan in the 30-3 loss as they held the Wolverines to 122 yards rushing on 31 carries (3.9 ypc). Last week, they had their home opener against Marshall and East Carolina had a 13-10 lead before a lengthy weather delay completely changed the flow of the game and the Pirates came out of the break flat and allowed 21 fourth quarter points to lose 31-13. East Carolina has qualified for a bowl the last two seasons and while they lost a few key starters, a couple games under their belt in a benefit. This is a great bounce back spot as the Pirates are 14-3 ATS in heir last 17 games as single digit underdogs when coming off a double-digit loss. Appalachian St. is coming off a tough loss against North Carolina for a second straight season as it lost in overtime 40-34. The Mountaineers got bludgeoned on the ground, allowing 319 yards on 45 carries (7.1 ypc) after allowing 134 yards on 27 carries (5.0 ypc) against Gardner Webb of the FCS where they outgained the Bulldogs by just 29 total yards. Like the Pirates, they are down a lot of starters form last season including quarterback Chase Brice and Joey Aguilar was bottled up last week. Appalachian St. has been awful in this role of late, going 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games when laying points against FBS opponents. 10* (147) East Carolina Pirates

This is a play on the MISSOURI TIGERS for our CFB Afternoon Dominator. Kansas St. is off to a 2-0 start coming off its 10-4 season and based on this line, last year is still being taken into consideration. The Wildcats were favored by 14.5 points against Troy at home last week so if that was on the road, they would be favored by only five more points than they are against a team from the SEC this week. Both wins have been impressive on the scoreboard but they were against SE Missouri St. of the FCS and while the Trojans were riding a 12-game winning streak, their first win came against Stephen F. Austin where they allowed 30 points. Offensively, Kansas St. still has a good quarterback in Will Howard they lost running back Deuce Vaughn and four of their top six receivers and finally face a defensive test. Missouri has not exactly looked impressive in its two victories as it did roll South Dakota but failed to cover and then narrowly beat Middle Tennessee St. last week by four points. This is a good matchup despite the uptick in the level of competition. Despite the loss of Vaughn, the Wildcats are a run first team and Missouri has held its first two opponents to 109 yards rushing on 64 carries (1.7 ypc). Yes, this came against two lesser teams but the Tigers bring back eight starters that improved its rushing yards allowed by over 100 ypg from 2021 and gave up just 3.7 ypg and that is against heavy SEC competition. They are out for some revenge following the 40-12 loss in Manhattan last season. 10* (130) Missouri Tigers

This is a play on the UTSA ROADRUNNERS for our CFB Friday Enforcer. UTSA has come up on the short end of covers in its first two games and now it is in a situation in the spotlight to show what this team is actually made of. The Roadrunners opened the season with a three-point loss against Houston and then defeated Texas St. by seven points last week and based on the stats, both should have been easy wins. They outgained Houston and Texas St. by 78 and 130 total yards respectively but they are down 4-0 in turnovers which is the contributing factor. UTSA has controlled the line of scrimmage as it has rushed for 366 yards on 89 carries (4.1 ypc) while allowing just 137 yards on 64 carries (2.1 ypc) and this should come as no surprise as the Roadrunners came into the season with the No. 5 ranked offensive line and No. 1 ranked defensive line in the AAC. Army is also off to a 1-1 start but its competition has been a lot lighter. The Black Knights lost to ULM in their first game despite being an 8.5-point favorite but bounced back last week with a 57-0 win over Delaware St. of the FCS which is bad enough but it is ranked No. 108 out of 128 FCS teams. While it rolled last week, Army was outgained by the Warhawks as the offense still needs work. It is a new look Army team on offense this season s head coach Jeff Monken replaced his nine-year offensive coordinator despite averaging 5.8 yppl last season, the most since 2017, with Drew Thatcher who is implementing a new offensive shotgun zone read scheme. Here, we play on home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points averaging between 3.5 and 4.3 ypc and after allowing 125 or fewer rushing yards in two straight games going up against a team allowing between 3.0 and 3.5 ypc. This situation is 32-9 ATS (78 percent) since 1992. 10* (112) UTSA Roadrunners

This is a play on the SAN DIEGO ST. AZTECS for our CFB Signature Enforcer. UCLA is coming off a win over Coastal Carolina by 14 points that took a 13-0 fourth quarter to get it done but it was sloppy as the Bruins won the yardage battle by only 76 total yards while throwing three interceptions from their quarterback due as neither Ethan Garbers or Dante Moore took charge of the offense. While a lot of teams simply play fast which makes them immune to the new play clock rules, UCLA does not as they are more methodical and head coach Chip Kelly voice his displeasure for the rule change and this could be an issue in the early stages of the season until they get into that comfort zone. The Bruins hit the road in a tough environment as big favorites where they cannot be trusted at this point. San Diego St. snuck past of Ohio in its opener and what looked like a cakewalk last week against Idaho St. as a 34-point favorite turned into a closer than expected game as the Aztecs won by just six points. The Bengals did score a garbage touchdown with under a minute left but it was uninspiring and can be chalked up to a lookahead to this game. The passing game has been nonexistent as San Diego St. threw for only 85 yards against Idaho St. after throwing for just 164 yards against Ohio but Jalen Mayden has gone 30-46 so the efficiency is there, just nothing being broken away. That should come in time and that could be here after Grayson McCall went 27-42 for 271 yards but had two costly interceptions. Live underdog with a lot of points to work with. 10* (324) San Diego St. Aztecs

This is a play on the EASTERN MICHIGAN EAGLES for our CFB Ultimate Underdog. Minnesota escaped with a win against Nebraska as it benefitted from two late turnovers by the Huskers that led to the final 10 points of the game to secure the backdoor win. The Gophers were able to stop the Nebraska passing game, holding it to 114 yards through the air but the other three facets were bad. Minnesota allowed 181 yards rushing on 37 carries (4.9 ypc) while its own running game was nonexistent as it rushed for 55 yards on 25 carries (2.2 ypc) so that alone should have put them on the wrong side of the scoreboard. The Gophers had to replace four-year starter Tanner Morgan at quarterback and it showed. Athan Kaliakmanis threw for 196 yards which is not dreadful but he was only 24-44 and threw a pick. Eastern Michigan finished 9-4 last season and was co-champions of the MAC West and the Eagles are in the conversation of contending in the division again. They are coming off an uninspiring win over Howard last week as they built a 28-6 lead and let the gas off following a pair of kickoff returns for touchdowns. Granted, that can skew a score but it also skewed the stats as the Eagles were outgained overall because of that as those two scores took possessions away from the offense. The Eagles have the second rated secondary in the MAC which is bad news for the weak Minnesota passing game, to go along with the best special teams in the conference and those two intangibles alone can sway an entire game and with this line, we have a ton to play with. 10* (347) Eastern Michigan Eagles

This is a play on the RICE OWLS for our CFB Non-Conference Game of the Month. Rice hung around for a while at Texas last week as it was down just 16-3 at halftime but the athletes of the Longhorns took over with a 21-0 third quarter and the Owls fell 37-10 but were able to stay within the big number. They are back home for this rivalry game and take a big step down in class while still catching a big number. Despite going 5-7 last season, they were able to participate in a bowl game because there were not enough qualified teams to fill the 41 bowls and Rice topped the list of 5-7 teams on Academic Progress Rate. The Owls have 15 starters back so there is plenty of experience and they added former blue chip quarterback J.T. Daniels who played at Georgia and West Virginia and while he was not good last week, he will get there in his second game. Houston escaped with a 17-14 win over UTSA despite getting outgained 417-334 as it benefitted from a 3-0 turnover edge that led to a 14-point swing. Allowing that many yards and few amount of points is an anomaly so it was a complete misleading final score. Only five starters return to an offense that averaged 36.1 ppg and 456 ypg and the opening game numbers showed that as it was bailed out. The Cougars were horrible defensively and lost eight of their nine top tacklers and while they allowed only 14 points, it should have been much worse. They are arguably the better team but not by much if at all and this line is not pairing up with that. 10* (358) Rice Owls

This is a play on the BOISE ST. BRONCOS for our CFB Star Attraction. Here we have two teams coming off opposite results and the line is reflecting that as this line has flipped favorites from two weeks ago. We played against Boise St. last week as it was overmatched against Washington in the 56-19 loss. They head back to Boise for their home opener and it will be a test for sure the Broncos still possess one of the best home fields in the country and this is just the third time in the last decade plus they have been home underdogs. The Broncos allowed 490 yards passing which was what was expected with a young secondary against an elite quarterback on the road. Offensively, the Broncos bring back quarterback Taylen Green who had a solid yet unspectacular season but does have solid running ability and looked decent at times last week with 244 yards passing but overall it was not great. Eight additional starters are back and they face a weaker defense this week. UCF rolled over Kent St. which is arguably the worst team in the FBS (preseason rank 132 of 133 teams) so take it for what it is worth. The Knights could not be stopped offensively as they racked up 723 total yards but John Rhys Plumlee still threw two interceptions against that defense and heads to a tough place. The defense was pretty good last year and have seven starters back but benefitted from an easy early schedule where they allowed only 14.3 ppg in their first six games but gave up 30.6 ppg in the final eight games against decent and not even great offenses. 10* (382) Boise St. Broncos

This is a play on the NORTH TEXAS MEAN GREEN as part of our CFB Chalk Three-Pack. North Texas came up small for us last week and that was a bad read on California which has definitely improved. The Mean Green have made it to three straight bowl games and with 15 starters back, they will be better than what we saw last week. They hired Eric Morris as the new head coach and he comes over after leading the Washington St. offense last season and he will be bringing in a more spread out attack. North Texas has to replace quarterback Austin Anue but it is not a big downgrade with ULM transfer Chandler Rogers taking over. Helping him out is the return of the entire offensive line, ranked preseason No. 1 in the AAC, and the top six rushers as well as leading receiver Roderic Burns. They go from facing a Pac 12 team to a doormat team from C-USA. We have seen this line come down from opening because of the blowout loss from North Texas and not because Florida International has done anything special. The Panthers have played two games as they lost the opener at Louisiana Tech by only five points which may look good but they were outgained 450-182 as they benefitted from turnovers and the inability of the Bulldogs to covert which led to five field goal attempts. They followed that up with a 14-12 win over Maine of the FCS where they were outgained again 378-305. While a switch at quarterback led to 292 yards passing, Keyone Jenkins was just 15-30 and on the flip side, they were outrushed 165-13 (4.0-0.5). Not a good look. 10* (373) North Texas Mean Green

This is a play on the FLORIDA ATLANTIC OWLS as part of our CFB Chalk Three-Pack. Ohio is coming off a win over Long Island last week following a Week 0 loss against San Diego St. and it was not a pretty victory. The Bobcats won 27-10 which did not come close to covering the 34-point spread and while the defense did its job, the offense was putrid as they gained only 303 total yards. They relied on the running game as they threw the ball only 15 times and that was due to a lack of confidence. Ohio lost quarterback Kurtis Rourke after he played only two series against San Diego St. in its opener and he was absent last week which puts the Bobcats in a tough situation here. Backups C.J. Harris and Parker Navaro cannot win games with their arms as there is little trust. Rourke could possibly go here but they might not chance it with a massive revenge game next week against Iowa St. and they do not want to further risk him heading into MAC season where they are expected to make a championship run. Florida Atlantic was two points away from bowl eligibility last season as it lost its final game to Western Kentucky 32-31 to finish 5-7 and good things are expected this season with a trip to the AAC Championship in play. The Owls have 18 starters back and are coming off a 42-20 win over Monmouth as they let up the gas in the third quarter in a very balanced offensive attack where they rushed for 213 yards and threw for 280 yards behind a great performance from Nebraska transfer Casey Thompson. Lay it early if possible before the official Rourke decision. 10* (368) Florida Atlantic Owls

This is a play on the GEORGIA SOUTHERN EAGLES as part of our CFB Chalk Three-Pack. UAB welcomed in the Trent Dilfer era with a 35-6 win over North Carolina A&T and it was a game where the Blazers knew what was coming with the Aggies running the ball 41 times while throwing it only eight times and with a talent discrepancy, they were no match. Things will be a lot tougher this week as they not only face a strong FBS opponent but one that will bring a new element. The jury is still out after facing a team from the FCS as UAB has a roster full of questions as it brings back only seven starters overall from last season, three on offense and four on defense. Jacob Zeno was spectacular at quarterback last week going 38-41 for 291 yards and three touchdowns but he will have a much bigger test to overcome here as his inexperienced line that came into the season with only 11 total starts could be overwhelmed. It is a short line as this is a public team with the known name of Dilfer and past success but this is a rebuilding year. Georgia Southern blanked the Citadel 34-0 to win its opener and it also goes up in class but it is not a huge leap to a weak FBS team. Ironically, the Eagles also faced a team that threw it only eight times so the secondary will get a challenge it has not seen yet but should be more than up to the task. Offensively, the Eagles moved from the option to a more spread offense last season and it worked and now David Brin is at quarterback and he looked good and should once again behind one of the best lines in the conference. 10* (370) Georgia Southern Eagles

This is a play on the UTSA ROADRUNNERS for our CFB Supreme Annihilator. UTSA killed us last week as it lost in Houston 17-14 in a game it should have won but mistakes cost the roadrunners. They outgained the Cougars 417-334 and that advantage would normally cover any 2.5-point spread handicapping turnovers is nearly impossible and it came from an unexpected source. Quarterback Frank Harris is in his seventh season and holds more than 30 team records, including passing yards, passing touchdowns and total offense but he cost them the game as he tossed three interceptions on his first three drives of the second half. The first came at the Houston 22-yard line and the last led to the eventual winning touchdown for the Cougars. It is safe to say, he is ready to make amends for that especially in their home opener where local philanthropist Harvey E. Najim purchased 7,100 tickets to make this place full. Texas St., not Colorado, is coming off the biggest upset last week as it went to Baylor and defeated the Bears by 11 points as a 27-point underdog. The Bobcats were outgained by 83 yards as the defense allowed 524 yards but forced four field goal attempts as Baylor was not clutch and also committed two turnovers. That victory coupled with the UTSA loss is keeping this line down even though it has been bet up slightly since opening. More shocking is the fact that Texas St. has been picked to finish dead last in the SBC as it has only 11 starters back and is working with a ton of transfers. now it is time for UTSA to roll. 10* (342) UTSA Roadrunners

This is a play on the NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS for our CFB Afternoon Dominator. Overreaction or underrated? Maybe it is a little bit of both for Colorado as it stunned TCU last week as a three-touchdown underdog and we are seeing upwards of a 12-point line swing as the Buffaloes were +8.5 just two weeks ago at MGM. Colorado won with 87 new players on the roster and while it was a big upset, a lot of the blame has to go on the Horned Frogs who had to replace a ton from their playoff team of last season. With the victory, the Buffaloes have entered the AP Top 25 which is a joke to begin with and this is a typical overreaction. The line will be big behind Colorado at the ticket window and we are already seeing 80 percent of the money on the Buffaloes and this is before the majority of the public has put their money in. Nebraska is coming off a loss at Minnesota in a game it could have and should have won. The Huskers had a 295-251 yardage advantage including 181-55 on the ground but were -3 in turnovers. Two of those turnovers came in the last five minutes of the game right around midfield when Nebraska had a 10-3 lead and those led to the final 10 points for the Gophers. It was a very disappointing loss for the Huskers and head coach Matt Rhule in his debut but they will come off the mat and be ready while Colorado is still celebrating. The scheduling is big as well as the Huskers will have had a couple extra days to get ready while Colorado is playing on a normal schedule coming off an up and down game in extremely hot and humid weather. 10* (317) Nebraska Cornhuskers

This is a play on the DUKE BLUE DEVILS for our CFB Monday signature Enforcer. After finishing no worse than No. 3 in the final CFP rankings for six straight years, the Tigers finished No. 19 and No. 7 the last two seasons and they are ready to get back to the top. Clemson is ranked No. 9 in the preseason AP Poll and is the slight favorite to win the ACC but nothing is guaranteed and it is being overpriced because of what should be the norm. The Tigers bring back a ton this season after going 11-3 and they are finally settled at the quarterback spot with Cade Klubnik taking over for the inconsistent D.J. Uiagalelei who transferred out to Oregon St. But it will not be a seamless transition as two of the top receivers are gone but he is behind a very strong offensive line. Clemson regressed defensively but should get back to its dominance but this is not an easy test. Duke put together a 9-4 season last year and some will think of it as a fluke because it was considered a soft schedule but teams cannot dictate who they play, it just comes to them and the Blue Devils took care of business. The four losses were all by one possession and by just 16 points combined so it could have been even better. Duke did benefit from a +16 turnover margin and that tends to trend back toward the mean the following season but there is more than enough to make up for that. The Blue Devils have 18 starters back including 10 on offense led by quarterback Riley Leonard who grades out as the second best quarterback in the ACC heading into the season. The defense improved by 17.7 ppg and nearly 170 ypg from 2021 and that can be attributed to the defensive mind of head coach Mike Elko. 10* (236) Duke Blue Devils

This is a play on the LSU TIGERS for our CFB Sunday Star Attraction. Head coach Brian Kelly took over an LSU program with no expectations and led them to a 10-4 season. This team is loaded with experience and talent and this first game will be a true indication of where it has come. Quarterback Jayden Daniels led the way last season as he threw for over 2,900 yards and 17 touchdowns while rushing for 885 yards and 11 touchdowns. One issue that has to be addressed is pass protection as LSU was the second worst in the SEC in sacks allowed but four starters are back and it will be better. The remaining top four rushers are all back, although John Emery is out here, and the Tigers added Logan Diggs from Notre Dame where he ran for 822 yards. The Tigers have improved defensively each of the last two years and are stacked for improvement again. Florida St. is getting a lot of sleeper CFP love and rightfully so. The Seminoles closed out last season with six straight wins, are right behind Clemson at +155 to win the ACC and have entered this season ranked No. 8 in the preseason AP Poll. Quarterback Jordan Travis was Second Team ACC last season and is exceptional but he lost a lot of production from his receiving corps and while the transfer portal will help, that could take some time and the tigers will be keying in on Johnny Wilson. The offensive line is solid but this will be the toughest defense it sees all season. The Seminoles improved dramatically on defense last season but had a tough time against the run and that will be a problem here. LSU was 10-1 when going for 140 yards and Florida St. allowed at least that six times. 10* (231) LSU Tigers

This is a play on the SOUTH ALABAMA JAGUARS for our CFB Saturday Signature Enforcer. Tulane had a magical season in 2022 as it went 12-2, tied with the 1998 team for most wins in school history, culminated by an amazing comeback in the Cotton Bowl against USC. We see a regression for sure and while it will not be same as that 1999 team that went 3-8, the Green Wave caught a lot of breaks last year catching some teams at the right place at the right time. Six starters are back on offense including Second Team AAC quarterback Michael Pratt who was sensational but all of his playmakers from last season are gone. The defense will be a solid unit once again with eight starters back but they face a really tough opening test. After finishing last season No. 9 in the final AP Poll, they come in No. 24 this season and while polls can be meaningless, it shows regression there as well. South Alabama finished 10-2 during the regular season last year, losing the two games to UCLA and eventual SBC Champion Troy by a combined five points. The Jaguars will be contenders again as they bring back nine starters on each side of the ball where both units dominated throughout. Quarterback Carter Bradley returns and despite setting the school record for passing yards in a season, he was only Fourth Team SBC but is preseason Second Team this year behind Grayson McCall. Six of his top seven receivers are back as well as the top three rushers along with four of five offensive linemen so yes they are loaded. The defense had its best showing in a decade and are extremely experienced and should be even better. 10* (219) South Alabama Jaguars

This is a play on the UTSA ROADRUNNERS for our CFB Game of the Week. Seeing Houston as a home underdog is going to have many scrambling to get on the Cougars but it looks like it is going to be a tough season. After going 12-2 in 2021, the Cougars opened last season in the top 25 with some big expectations only to finish a disappointing 8-5. To their credit, they did suffer two overtime losses but on the flip side, Houston won half of its games by only one possession and that was with having First Team AAC quarterback Clayton Tune who is now in the NFL. Only five starters return to an offense that averaged 36.1 ppg and 456 ypg and taking the place of Tune will be Texas Tech transfer Donovan Smith who is talented but turns the ball over and also gone are the two top receivers from last season. The Cougars were horrible defensively and lost eight of their nine top tacklers. That is good news for UTSA which is the preseason favorite in the AAC following the last two seasons where it went a combined 23-5. The Roadrunners are loaded again with eight starters back on both sides of the ball. They have the best quarterback in the conference in Frank Harris who is back for his seventh season, yes seventh, where he holds more than 30 team records, including passing yards, passing touchdowns and total offense. He does lose his top receiver but the next four are all back as it leading rusher Kevorian Barnes who was also a First Team player despite being a freshman playing only seven games. The offensive line is deep and there will be no drop off from their 36 ppg average each of the last two seasons. 10* (211) UTSA Roadrunners

This is a play on the NORTH TEXAS MEAN GREEN for our CFB Saturday Ultimate Underdog. North Texas has not been able to get over .500 since 2018 which led to head coach Seth Littrell being let go after seven seasons but it is not a do over. The Mean Green have made it to three straight bowl games and with 15 starters back, the cupboard is not bare. They hired Eric Morris as the new head coach and he comes over after leading the Washington St. offense last season and he will be bringing in a more spread out attack. North Texas has to replace quarterback Austin Anue but it is not a big downgrade with ULM transfer Chandler Rogers taking over. Helping him out is the return of the entire offensive line, ranked preseason No. 1 in the AAC, and the top six rushers as well as leading receiver Roderic Burns. One intangible is Morris knows the opposing defense and shredded them last season for 343 yards passing. California should be improved after three straight losing seasons including a 4-8 record last season. The Golden Bears lost some close games and they bring back 15 starters but being favored on the road by this many points after going 1-12 in their last 13 road games is a bit aggressive. Jack Plummer was great at quarterback last season but he is off to Louisville and California will have to find a new starter for a second straight season and there is no one competing that has been in this system. The defense does bring back nine starters but they were horrible last season, allowing 27.8 ppg and nearly 430 ypg and will not have much to go off of here. North Texas can easily win outright with the points being a premium. 10* (214) North Texas Mean Green

This is a play on the WASHINGTON HUSKIES for our CFB Saturday Star Attraction. A first look at this number will put a lot of people on Boise St. getting over two touchdowns especially with what the Broncos did last season and expectations for this season. However, those expectations are in the very below average MWC and they will likely start the season 0-2 before facing FCS North Dakota as they are overmatched here. Boise St. ended up 10-4 last season but the schedule played a big part in that as of those 10 wins, seven were games in which they were favored by double digits so those were inflated. Offensively, the Broncos bring back quarterback Taylen Green who had a solid yet unspectacular season but does have solid running ability. Eight additional starters are back but lighting it up here will be a challenge. Defensively, they were No. 5 in passing defense so it looks as though they could challenge the Huskies but faced hardly any above average passing teams and have only five starters back on the entire defense. Washington finished 11-2 last season with the two losses coming back-to-back on the road at UCLA and Arizona St. by eight and seven points respectively, closed last season with seven straight wins and finished No. 8 in the AP Poll. The Huskies come into this season No. 10 in the preseason AP Poll and will again be in the hunt in the loaded Pac 12. Quarterback Michael Penix was second in the country in passing yards and led an offense that improved by 18.2 ppg and 196 ypg from 2021 and he has his top five receivers back. He should have no problem lighting this defense up. 10* (198) Washington Huskies

This is a play on the TEMPLE OWLS for our CFB Saturday Supreme Annihilator. Temple went just 3-9 for a second straight season but the Owls improved on both sides of the ball from 2021 and four of the losses last year were by one possession. They should continue to improve as they bring back 16 starters that includes seven on offense led by quarterback EJ Warner, the son of Kurt. He was the AAC Freshman of the Year after throwing for over 3,000 yards on a 61 percent completion percentage clip and while he did throw 12 interceptions, half of those were in his first four career starts. He loses his top receiver but will get transfer help and has an experienced and improved offensive line. The Owls will be stronger defensively with nine starters back and get a perfect first opponent. Akron had only one win last season against an FBS opponent and while the Zips also improved on both sides of the ball from 2021, but this is still a big work in progress. Offensively, the Zips bring back quarterback D.J. Irons, who is also the leading returning rusher and while he was not awful, he had no protection. They were the worst in the conference in tackles for loss allowed and No. 118 in the country in sacks allowed. It is a big work in progress on defense with a revamped defensive line and not much experience at linebacker. Akron is tied with Kent St. in the MAC for the worst combined ratings of the offensive and defensive lines and that is where it all starts. Temple was favored only once last season against an FBS opponent and easily covered so laying a number with the Owls is not an issue. 10* (172) Temple Owls

This is a play on the BOWLING GREEN FALCONS for our CFB Saturday Afternoon Dominator. After four straight bowl appearances from 2012-2015, Bowling Green went south quickly with six straight losing seasons and no bowl games but the Falcons turned things around last season. They did finish with a losing record but that was due to a bowl loss and they are building on that heading into this season. The offense has been bad for years and while they did show improvements last season, they should take a big step this season. Bowling Green brought in quarterback Conner Bazelak through the transfer portal after being a two-year starter at Missouri and for most of last year at Indiana, throwing for 7,370 career yards with 36 touchdowns. He should be able to sling it around with good protection from the offensive line which can open up the running game. Liberty had its fourth straight winning season a year ago but there could be some regression this season despite what looks like a very easy schedule. Gone is head coach Hugh Freeze to Auburn and in comes former Coastal Carolina coach Jamey Chadwell who is very solid but there are numerous questions at both of the coordinator positions. The Flames have to replace 14 starters and while there is experience at quarterback with great depth, Chadwell will not have Grayson McCall and his remarkable season around. Defensively, it is close to a total overhaul from a unit that led the nation in tackles for loss and was third in sacks and now has to replace eight starters. This line is too big and based too much on the past and not the present. 10* (161) Bowling Green Falcons

This is a play on the GEORGIA TECH YELLOW JACKETS for our CFB Friday Star Attraction. Louisville has a new head coach as Scott Satterfield left to take over at Cincinnati and the Cardinals brought in Jeff Brohm from Purdue which is basically a lateral move. It might seem like a great hire considering the Boilermakers won the Big Ten West but they did it with an easy schedule and five of the seven FBS wins were by one possession. Back to Louisville, it has a project on its hands, namely the offense. This was a very balanced offense and Brohm is bringing in a more wide open passing attack which could flourish later in the season but not now. Jack Plummer takes over at quarterback after coming over from California where he was solid but there are unknowns at receiver as the top two and four of the top five are gone while three starters have to be replaced along the offensive line. Georgia Tech opened the season 1-3 and Geoff Collins, who entered the season on the hot seat, was let go and it was pretty evident he was a bog part of the recent year struggles as the Yellow Jackets rallied around Brent Key to close the season 4-4. Going 5-7 by playing the No. 6 ranked schedule in the country is not horrible and while they are in the same boat as Louisville in terms of returning starters, the same systems are still in place. Quarterback Haynes King won the starting job and while he is new to a system as well, it is not as pass heavy and the running game should be strong. This is especially the case with four starting offensive linemen returning. While hot a true home game, this is a significant neutral field number. 10* (154) Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

This is a play on the CONNECTICUT HUSKIES for our CFB Thursday Ultimate Underdog. It was a disaster of a start for Connecticut and first year head coach Jim Mora in his first season in Storrs as it lost its first four FBS games by an average of 33.8 ppg. The Huskies then turned a corner as they defeated a very good Fresno St. team to start a 5-1 run and they became bowl eligible for the first time since 2015. While they lost to Marshall, the added practice time was very beneficial and they bring back 17 starters. The defense has eight coming back on a unit that made dramatic improvements from the previous four seasons. Joe Fagnano on the starting quarterback job over Zion Turner and this is pretty significant. He was a multi-year starter at Maine, where he threw for more than 5,600 yards and he is familiar with the Huskies system as their new offensive coordinator is Nick Charlton, who was the Black Bears head coach from 2019 through 2021. NC State is coming off a disappointing season as it closed 4-5 following a 4-0 start and while it is not a complete rebuild, many key parts have to be replaced. Quarterback was an issue last season but there is help with Brennan Armstrong coming over from Virginia and reuniting with offensive coordinator Robert Anae so this should be a potent part of the offense but later in the season. The Wolfpack lost three of their top four receivers while the offensive line will be a work in progress, coming in ranked No. 10 out of 14 teams in the ACC. The defense finished No. 20 overall and No. 15 in scoring but six starters have to be replaced. NC State rolled over Connecticut 41-10 last season so there is revenge in play for the Huskies and the 23-point line swing from that game is telling us the story as well. 10* (144) Connecticut Huskies

This is a play on the HAWAII WARRIORS for our CFB Game of the Month. Year one for head coach Timmy Chang did not go as planned and while not much was expected, a 3-10 season was a big disappointment. Things should be better as after a rough start where the Warriors lost their first four FBS games by 53, 32, 46 and 19 points, four of the last six losses were by a touchdown or less so they became more competitive. They have only five starters back on offense but the quarterback, two starting receivers and a key running back return with the offensive line needing the biggest overhaul. That is not a huge concern in this matchup, however. Defensively, Hawaii was not good but has nine starters back from a unit that improved dramatically down the stretch. Vanderbilt was a win shy from its first bowl games since 2018 and with a decent group of 17 starters back, the Commodores can make some improvements. But they do not have any business laying a number this big as they have been a double-digit favorite over FBS competition just twice the last four seasons and failed to cover both, losing one outright. The point being, this is not a program accustomed to this spot. Playing in the SEC is not optimal for Vanderbilt and while this is a big step down in competition, the intangibles are not in their favor. Offensively, the passing game will be fine but quarterback A.J. Swann is just a sophomore and they have to replace their top two running backs and that is bad news for a team that likes to grind it out. There is experience on defense but nothing spectacular. 10* (311) Hawaii Warriors

This is a play on the NAVY MIDSHIPMEN for our CFB Opening Kickoff Winner. The hype behind Notre Dame is pretty typical every year but this season it is not getting as much love. The Irish come in ranked No. 13 in the preseason AP Poll after finishing No. 21 in the final CFP Poll last year which followed up a pair of top five finishes. This is the lowest preseason ranking since 2017 when they were unranked but expectations and high and this is Notre Dame with the name alone adding value to the opponent. The big gain for the Irish is Wake Forest transfer quarterback San Hartman who should flourish but it could take a bit with five of the top six receivers gone. They will be solid defensively again with eight starters back but the first game presents an unknown. After 15 full seasons at Navy, head coach Ken Niumatalolo was let go and defensive coordinator Brian Newberry was promoted in hopes of turning around a program that is coming off three straight losing seasons. This recent run is another cause for this inflated line as that is all there is to go off of when in reality, the Midshipmen have some hidden advantages. The main one is the fact Notre Dame does not have much to look at for preparation as while the system is not dramatically changing, there are new wrinkles in the offense coming from Grant Chesnut, who was hired as offensive coordinator after having the same position at Kennesaw St. for nine years. Different looks and more of a pass game can keep Notre Dame off balance. Excellent value for the 2023 season opening game from Ireland. 10*(299) Navy Midshipmen

This is a play on the TCU HORNED FROGS for our CFB Bowl Game of the Year. TCU is the surprise of the college football season and it continues to get no respect. Despite a 12-0 record, the Horned Frogs were underdogs in the Big 12 Championship because no one wants to bet on this team and while they lost, it took overtime in a game they outgained the Wildcats by 65 yards and were more impressive last week. Many thought of it to be a mismatch against Michigan even with its high-powered offense but they scored 51 points and put up 488 yards against one of the best defenses in the country which showed the Horned Frogs do belong. They obviously have another big test here against one of the best defenses in the country but possess one of the best offensive minds in college football in head coach Sonny Dykes who worked with the late, great Mike Leach at Texas Tech and turned around offenses in his stops before heading to TCU. In the last two games, the Georgia defense has given up 850 yards passing and it has been middle of the road all season at No. 52 overall. Georgia no doubt has a power offense of its own and the fact TCU allowed 45 points against Michigan is a concern but overall, the Horned Frogs held some very solid defenses from the Big 12 in check. The Horned Frogs had more wins over ranked opponents (6) than Georgia (4) and while the teams cannot dictate who they play in not giving Georgia the same amount off opportunities, the fact that they won those games tells a lot for TCU. Power rankings call for Georgia being a touchdown favorite here which shows an inflated line which was also the case against Michigan that unfortunately we did not take advantage of. One overlooked factor here is that Georgia had the advantage of playing the SEC Championship and the CFP Semifinals at Mercedes-Benz Stadium which is not too far from campus so there was hardly any travel and that has been the case for most of this season. Eight games were played away from Athens including four neutral sites that were all close by and the furthest trip was to Missouri and we all saw what almost happened there. This is not an end all be all aspect but counts some. 10* (287) TCU Horned Frogs

This is a play on the UTAH UTES for our CFB Rose Bowl Winner. Utah will be out for some retribution following a loss in the Rose Bowl last season, falling by a field goal to Ohio St. and it has a good matchup here to do so. Penn St. and Utah both do a fantastic job of getting pressure on the quarterback, stopping the run and creating turnovers but it is Utah that has played the tougher schedule and is better equipped to handle it here. Utah is one of five Power 5 teams that rank in the top 20 in both total offense and defense and led the Pac 12 in both categories. The offense is balanced led by underrated quarterback Cam Rising who threw for 2,939 yards and 25 touchdowns and just seven interceptions while completing 66.2 percent of his passes. The Utes will be without leading rusher Tavion Thomas but they have great depth and will be fine with Ja'Quinden Jackson and Micah Bernard. Over the last two games, Jackson rushed for 222 yards on 9.7 ypc and five touchdowns while Bernard rushed for 179 yards on 7.8 ypc and two touchdowns. One huge asset the Nittany Lions have is a strong rushing defense that is ranked No. 14 in the country despite allowing a whopping 418 rushing yards against Michigan. That is key because Penn St. faced some horrible rushing teams besides that. It was a great season for Penn St. with its only losses coming against Michigan and Ohio St. and it backed into the Rose Bowl because those two teams both qualified for the CFP. The Nittany Lions possess a very balanced offense led by veteran quarterback Sean Clifford who numbers rival those of Rising but faced some poor defenses down the stretch. Utah is ranked No. 20 in total defense with a strong rushing defense of its own as it is ranked No. 16 against the run. Here, we play on teams in the second half of the season averaging between 190 and 230 rushing ypg and after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game going up against teams allowing between 140 and 190 rushing ypg. This situation is 99-54 ATS (64.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (283) Utah Utes

This is a play on the ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE for our CFB Nonconference Game of the Month. Not too often will you hear Alabama and line value uttered in the same sentence but that is the case in the Sugar Bowl. The Crimson Tide have been favored by double-digits in all but one game this season which was a true road game at Tennessee where they were favored by nine points. Now they are favored less than that on a neutral field in a game where they will be playing with a chip on their shoulder and with no opt outs, they are here to win and win big. Alabama is out to prove something after missing out on the College Football Playoff, which it did not deserve a spot, but it did in its own mind and that is motivation enough. The Crimson Tide offense is at full strength after averaging 40.8 ppg during the regular season, good for No. 4 in the nation. The Wildcats are a respectable No. 53 in the country in total defense at 365.8 ypg and in the two games they faced a high-powered offense against TCU, they allowed 38 and 28 points, and in the two other games they points, those were against two offenses not on the same level as Alabama. The Kansas St. offense has been on a roll of late as the Wildcats have scored 30 or more points in five of its last six games but facing Big 12 defenses will do that. Obviously, one of those wins came against TCU but the Horned Frogs do not have a very good defense despite being the No. 3 team in the country and the best defense Kansas St. has faced over this six-game stretch is ranked No. 50. Alabama checks in at No. 15 and is ranked in the top 30 in all major defensive categories. Kansas St. has a great running back in Deuce Vaughn as he has 1,425 yards on the ground and a cause for concern is that the Crimson Tide allowed 318 yards rushing against Auburn but we can categorize that as an aberration as just four other teams managed to go over 100 yards on the ground against their defense this season. Alabama has big edges on both sides of the ball and we will gladly lay the short price. 10* (272) Alabama Crimson Tide

This is a play on the OHIO BOBCATS for our CFB Friday Enforcer. Wyoming is in a very tough spot as it has one of the worst offenses in the country as it is ranked No. 118 in total offense and No. 112 in scoring offense and is now down a ton in the Arizona Bowl. The Cowboys leading rusher Titus Swen, who had 1,039 yards on the ground entered the transfer portal as did leading receiver Josh Cobbs, who had just 407 yards which shows how bad the passing game has been. With Swen on the move, there is a ton of pressure on quarterback Andrew Peasley who was pretty bad as he threw for just 1,388 yards with nine touchdowns and eight interceptions while barely completing over half of his passes. They will be facing one of the worst defenses in the country against the pass but that will not matter here as Wyoming scored just 31 points total over their last three games. The Bobcats would struggle against a good offense but certainly not here. Ohio had one of the best offenses in the country as it was led by MAC Offensive Player of the Year quarterback Kurtis Rourke but he sustained a season ending injury late in the year so that offense will definitely not be as prolific. CJ Harris has played two games and was pretty good so that experience and extra preparation time will benefit him going up against a very good Wyoming defense. But that defense is also down some key players as it best corner Cameron Stone and edge rusher Oluwaseyi Omotosho, who was second on the team with 6.5 sacks, both entered the transfer portal. We can expect a big game from running back Sieh Bangura, the MAC Freshman of the Year, as he led the team with 940 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns. We are catching a small line because of the Rourke absence but Ohio is in great shape for its first 10-win season since 2011. Here, we play against teams where the line is +3 to -3 after gaining 250 or less total ypg over their last three games. This situation is 34-10 ATS (77.3 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (266) Ohio Bobcats

This is a play on the UCLA BRUINS for our CFB Friday Afternoon Dominator. The transfer portal has affected these two teams in different ways with UCLA players showing the classy way to go out. Pittsburgh and UCLA had the leading rushers in their respective conferences with Israel Abanikanda leading the ACC with 1,431 yards and Zach Charbonnet leading the Pac 12 with 1,359 yards but only Charbonnet will be present on Friday as Abanikanda opted out to get ready for the NFL Draft. That is a big loss for the Panthers who will also be without starting quarterback Kedon Clovis who entered the transfer portal and is off to BYU leaving Pittsburgh with a makeshift offense. This is not good news for an offense that was average to begin with and now it will be Nick Patti and/or Nate Yarnell making the start at quarterback after throwing for just 258 yards combined on only 32 passing attempts. The UCLA defense is not very good and would have been vulnerable against a full Panthers offense but should be able to keep the Panthers in check. The defense did have its moments against some average offenses and that is what we can classify Pittsburgh at this point. Conversely, the UCLA offense is in fine shape with Charbonnet and do everything quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson playing despite both going to be taken in the NFL Draft and respect for them to play with their teammates in what was a great season. The Bruins finished No. 3 in the country in total offense and what made it so lethal was the balance as they were the only team in the country to have at least 2,900 yards rushing and 3,100 yards passing. Thompson-Robinson was exceptional as he accumulated 3,514 total yards and 39 touchdowns both through the air and on the ground and while facing a solid defense, that unit also lost players that have opted out including all-American tackle and NFL prospect Calijah Kancey. There will be plenty of motivation for the Bruins as they seek their first 10-win season since 2014, the same year they had their last bowl victory. 10* (262) UCLA Bruins

This is a play on the FLORIDA ST. SEMINOLES for our CFB Thursday Supreme Annihilator. We typically do not lay big numbers in bowl games but this will be an exception. Both teams should have plenty of motivation here as Oklahoma will want to avoid a losing season for the first time since 1998 so there will be pride while on the other side, the Seminoles will be out its first 10-win season since 2016 and looks to set the tone for 2023 which could be a special one given the talent that they are returning and bringing in via the transfer portal and recruiting class. These were two of the best rushing teams in the country during the regular season but they will be totally different heading into the bowl game. The Sooners would have had a significant edge against a pretty bad Florida St. rushing defense but star running back Eric Gray, who rushed for 1,364 yards, opted out of the game as did both starting tackles leaving the ball in the hands of quarterback Dillon Gabriel who did have a decent season but now has no running game to rely on and he will be missing his deep threat receiver Theo Wease who also opted out. He faces a Seminoles passing defense that allowed just 158.9 ypg which as No. 3 in the country. on the other side, the Seminoles finished just ahead of Oklahoma in rushing offense at No. 12 with 217.8 ypg and the difference here is that everyone will be playing. Their four leading rushers all eclipsed 4.9 ypc and together they combined for 26 touchdowns. Oklahoma ranked No. 107 in rushing defense, giving up at least 203 rushing yards five times and to no surprise, they lost all five of those games. The Sooners are just 1-6 when allowing more than 14 points this season and that will not be an issue for Florida St. to surpass that number. Pride can only go so far as the Sooners are severely undermanned in this matchup and what looks good on paper could potentially turn into a blowout. 10* (256) Florida St. Seminoles

This is a play on the TEXAS TECH RED RAIDERS for our CFB Wednesday Enforcer. Mississippi opened the season 7-0 and got itself into the top ten but then the schedule stiffened and the Rebels folded. They lost four of their last five games with the only win over that stretch coming against a bad Texas A&M team. That was the story this season as they beat just one Power 5 team that qualified for a bowl game all season which was Kentucky and went 0-4 in their other meetings with Power 5 bowl teams. Their rushing attack has been lethal as they average 261.6 ypg which is the most in the country from a non-option running team so the Red Raiders will have their hands full. But they possess a very underrated defense that was the best one to take the field in years as this season, Texas Tech is ranked No. 45 in EPA per play and No. 33 in success rate. Even more impressive is the fact they allowed 29.5 ppg which is nothing great but it is the fewest it has allowed in over a decade. The Red Raiders closed the season with three straight wins, two coming against bowl teams, part of four victories they have against bowl teams overall. The results are a bit surprising with this being the first season with head coach Joey McGuire and some low expectations coming in but they overachieved to finish 7-5 and will be amped up to carry some momentum into next season. One thing that has not changed is the offense that goes fast and is one of the best in the country. The Red Raiders average the most offensive plays in the country while their 44.2 passing attempts per game is the third most in the nation. That has led to the No. 13 ranked passing offense which will find success as the Rebels defense is ranked No. 98 in pass success rate which is a better indicator than the raw yards allowed. Despite some gaudy passing numbers, the running game is very effective and can keep defenses off balance as Texas Tech is averaging a solid 152.1 ypg on the ground. 10* (252) Texas Tech Red Raiders

This is a play on the DUKE BLUE DEVILS for our CFB Wednesday Afternoon Dominator. Central Florida opened this game as the favorite but the line has flipped with the Knights coming in banged up and shorthanded. UCF lost two of its last three games including a defeat in the AAC Championship and this is not the destination it was expecting just a few short weeks ago. Knights quarterback John Rhys Plumlee is not on the injury list but dealt with a hamstring injury down the stretch and that hurts the offense besides the passing game as he led UCF in rushing during the regular season with 841 yards. He could be limited against a Duke defense that finished No. 24 in the country in yards allowed per game and 18th in rush play success rate. While the running game could be hampered, the passing attack is hurt as top receiver Ryan O'Keefe is entering the transfer portal and will not play. The weakness of the Blue Devils defense is against the pass but they catch a break here. Duke is coming off an 8-4 season and while there were not many quality wins, the fact it was able to get to eight wins was a huge achievement for a team picked to finish near the bottom of the ACC. The Blue Devils won four of their last five games with the only loss coming to Pittsburgh by two points. They have a dynamic offense that is very balanced as Duke ranked No. 3 in the conference in rushing with 184.8 ypg and No. 6 in passing with 236.4 ypg while also averaging 33.1 ppg. The offensive line is responsible for a lot of the success, especially on the ground as they are ranked No. 4 in stuff rate, No. 9 in line yards, and No. 31 in the country in rush play success rate. The Knights passing defense is a big weakness, ranked No. 81 in coverage rate while allowing 268 passing ypg over its last nine games taking Navy out of the equation. Over the last three games, the Knights allowed 267 ypg rushing so this unit has been gashed all over the place and has been very inconsistent. 10* (246) Duke Blue Devils

This is a play on the WISCONSIN BADGERS for our CFB Tuesday Enforcer. Oklahoma St. was a favorite in the Big 12 coming into the season and after a 5-0 start, things were looking good. The Cowboys then suffered a loss in overtime against TCU which put them in a tailspin and while they did respond with a win against Texas, the closed the season on a 1-4 run with the only win coming against bottom feeder Iowa St. despite getting outgained by 89 yards and posting just 244 yards of total offense. The Cowboys averaged just 13.6 ppg over that five-game closing stretch and now have to go into the bowl game without starting quarterback Spencer Sanders who entered the transfer portal. Backups Gunner Gundy and Garret Rangel were not good when pressed into play as they completed 52 percent of their passes while throwing five touchdowns and seven interceptions so it is a significant drop off. They will not be facing one of the best defenses it has seen all season. The Badgers dropped their regular season finale against Minnesota to finish 6-6but it was a good rally following the firing of head coach Paul Chryst and there is motivation for Wisconsin to end the season with a win for interim head coach Jim Leonard who is a player favorite and did not get the permanent head coaching position. The offense struggled this season and will also have to play with a backup quarterback as starter Graham Mertz also entered the transfer portal but the drop off is not as significant even though there is little experience as they are not a passing team to begin with, ranking No. 22 in the country in running percentage. Leading rusher Braelon Allen is questionable after missing the last game but Wisconsin goes up against an Oklahoma St. defense ranked No. 100 in opponent yards per play. On the other side, Wisconsin ranked 12th in the nation in opponent yards per play when facing FBS opponents while allowing more than 24 points only once in its last seven games. 10* (244) Wisconsin Badgers

This is a play on the UTAH ST. AGGIES for our CFB Tuesday Afternoon Dominator. A pair of underwhelming teams square off in Dallas and that typically favors the underdog, especially one that is getting a significant amount of points. Utah St. had its three-game winning streak snapped in a fluky loss at Boise St. to close the regular season as it was down by just five points midway through the fourth quarter before the Broncos scored on a 91-yard touchdown run and then on a 48-yard interception return for a score to close the game. It was an excellent run to close the season after the Aggies opened 1-4 and while the top level stats show weaknesses, digging deeper does show some edges in key areas. They possess an underrated defense where it is ranked No. 22 in Stuff Rate and No. 32 in Passing Success Rate so it can slow this Memphis offense down whose own top level numbers are inflated. Memphis also finished 6-6 and closed the season with a loss against SMU which snapped its own two-game winning streak. The Tigers beat the teams it should have but struggled against the rest of the slate as they went 1-6 against bowl teams. The Tigers passing game is solid but as mentioned, they will be facing a strong pass defense. Memphis does not run the ball well at all and it is ranked No. 84 in ERA per rush and No. 104 in line yards and that goes right up against the Utah St. strength along the line of scrimmage. Their defense is overrated as while they are No. 63 in total defense, they are No. 77 in EPA per play and No. 88 in Success Rate and the passing defense is a real weakness as the tigers are No. 95 in EPA per pass and No. 109 in Passing Success Rate and Utah St. can take advantage. Here, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that have been outscored by opponents by seven or more ppg, after allowing 31 points or more in three straight games. This situation is 76-38 ATS (66.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (239) Utah St. Aggies

This is a play on the NEW MEXICO ST. AGGIES for our CFB Monday Enforcer. Bowling Green closed the season winning four of its last six games to earn a trip to a bowl game for the first time since 2005 but this is not a good team. The Falcons are ranked No. 97 or worse in six of the eight statistical categories including No. 105 in total offense and No. 106 in total defense and in its 12 games, Bowling Green has been outgained nine times. Despite a 5-3 MAC record, the offense scored 17 or fewer points five times and the Falcons will be facing a pretty strong defense. Quarterback Matt McDonald is coming off one of his worst games of the season and has been inconsistent throughout and keeping him clean will be a problem as he has been sacked three times or more in each of the last seven games. While this game is being played closer to home for Bowling Green, any advantage of having a home crowd on its side is minimal as there will be no one at this game. New Mexico St. had to play a non-scheduled game against Valparaiso of the FCS to get a special bowl waiver since two of its victories were against FCS teams but nonetheless, the Aggies are bowling for the first time since 2017 as head coach Jerry Kill has done an outstanding job in his first season, taking a program to the postseason that had not finished better than 3-10 since 2018, going 8-30 over that stretch. They have played a softer schedule but face an opponent right at their level and getting a favorable number. The Aggies are ranked No. 37 in the country in Points Per Opportunity which is based on getting inside the opponents 40-yard line and the Bowling Green defense has struggled defending that as it is ranked No. 100 in defensive Points Per Opportunity. Here, we play against teams after allowing 37 points or more last game going up against an opponent after two straight wins by 28 or more points. This situation is 131-69 ATS (65.5 percent) since 1992. 10* (235) New Mexico St. Aggies

This is a play on the MIDDLE TENNESSEE ST. BLUE RAIDERS for our CFB Saturday Enforcer. Two fairly even teams square off on Christmas Eve in Hawaii and we are getting value in this line with the Blue Raiders. Middle Tennessee St. closed the season with three straight wins to finish 7-5 and while those came against some weak competition, it matches up well here. The offense was middle of the pack as the passing game led the way. Quarterback Chase Cunningham completed 67.4 percent of his passes for 2,920 yards with 19 touchdowns and nine interceptions to lead a passing attack that is ranked No. 31 in the country. Now while they face a San Diego St. defense that has only allowed 206.6 ypg which was good for No. 35, those came mostly against teams in the MWC that had no semblance of a passing game with five teams ranked in the bottom 15 in the country in passing offense. A passing game that has an edge even though the stats do not state that from the top line is even better when that teams is a significant underdog. San Diego St. also finished the season 7-5 with just two solid wins against Toledo and San Jose St. as the other four FBS wins came against teams a combined 12-37. The offense was one of the worst in the country as the Aztecs averaged 321.8 ypg and 21.3 ppg, No. 117 and No. 109 in the country respectively and while it did improve over the second half of the season with a quarterback change, it was not overwhelming. Jalen Mayden, who is a converted safety, completed 62.3 percent of his passes for 1,721 yards with 10 touchdowns and seven interceptions so he did not light it up and actually regressed after teams got film on him. He was sacked 15 times in seven games and will be facing a solid Middle Tennessee St. defensive line that registered 34 sacks and while the defense was next to last in passing defense, there is not much worry here and the strength of the San Diego St. offense will be negated by the Blue Raiders No. 27 ranked rushing defense. 10* (233) Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders

This is a play on the WAKE FOREST DEMON DEACONS for our CFB Friday Enforcer. Wake Forest was a ranked team in late October but it closed the season with losses in four of its last five games to finish the regular season 7-5. It will be out to close the season strong and the roster is fully on board as it is just a little more intact with no optouts and quarterback Sam Hartman is the key piece as he easily could have to get ready for the NFL Draft but chose the noble move to end his five-year career here and play in the final bowl game. Wake Forest has the No. 10 ranked passing offense and will be facing a strong Missouri defense but it will be down heading into this game. The defense was shredded many times this season but those were against alite offenses and that will not be the case here. Missouri has momentum in its favor, having won its last two games to clinch a bowl berth but it struggled for the most part against good teams, going 1-4 against FBS teams with a winning record. Missouri was not hit too hard with the transfer portal but did lose top receiver Dominic Lovett which will hurt an already anemic passing offense and the Tigers will also be missing some key pieces on the defensive line. While dual-threat quarterback Brady Cook will be difficult to contain, if this game turns into a shootout, his throwing ability will not be able to keep up. The Missouri defense struggles when facing off against elite slot receivers and Wake Forest has two of the best in the ACC in Taylor Morin and Ke'Shawn Williams. Here, we play on teams after being beaten by the spread by 49 or more points total in their last five games, in December games. This situation is 55-22 ATS (71.4 percent) since 1992. 10* (231) Wake Forest Demon Deacons

This is a play on the AIR FORCE FALCONS for our CFB Thursday Enforcer. Air Force comes into Thursday following four straight victories to close the regular season and finished in a three-way tie for second place in the MWC Mountain Division. A win over Baylor would give the Falcons a 10-win season for the second consecutive year and the fifth time over the last 16 seasons which is saying something for a service academy program. Air Force is 9-3 with the three losses coming against Wyoming, Utah St. and Boise St., all bowl teams, all by one possession and two of those being true road games. The solid record shows in the stats as the Falcons possess the top ranked rushing game in the country as they cause fits for most teams and will do so here against a team that fired its defensive coordinator at the end of the regular season. The flexbone offense has three productive backs so defenses cannot key on one particular player while getting confused by the numerous counters and fakes. Baylor has lost three straight games, albeit all against ranked teams, so it comes in with little momentum and after high expectations coming into the season, it has been a disappointing one at 6-6. The Bears have an above average offense led by quarterback Blake Shapen who has been wildly inconsistent especially down the stretch. Over his last four games, he has three touchdowns and five interceptions and none of those games came against a defense ranked in the top 50. Now, Baylor goes up against the top ranked defense in the country and the Falcons are great at both levels as they are No. 1 against the pass and No. 3 against the run and while this can be attributed to facing the fewest snaps by far, they are still No. 13 in yards per play allowed. Because of leading the country in time of possession, the defense is fresh throughout the game which leads to its great success. 10* (227) Air Force Falcons

This is a play on the WESTERN KENTUCKY HILLTOPPS for our CFB Wednesday Enforcer. South Alabama is coming off its best season since entering the FBS in 2012 as it posted its best winning percentage after going 10-2 with the two losses coming by a combined five points against UCLA and Troy so it is no surprise the Jaguars come in as the favorite. Half of its wins came by one possession so things could have gone worse as the Jaguars have the No. 12 ranked Luck Factor Rating so deep analytics can tell a different story. They have a good but not great offense as they are ranked No. 40 or worse in all categories and while facing a below average defense, the Hilltoppers improved immensely on that side of the ball over the second half of the season. The Hilltoppers closed the season with wins in three of their last four games with the only loss at Auburn and they won the yardage battle in all of those contests. Western Kentucky was on the other side of the Luck Factor Ratings as they have been unfortunate coming in ranked No. 117. South Alabama comes in with a with a very solid defense but the one liability is the passing defense where it allows 215.8 ypg which is ranked No. 52 and while not horrible, it has a horrible matchup. The Hilltoppers bring in the No. 2 ranked passing offense and they are fortunate to be at full strength. They are led by transfer quarterback Austin Reed who was named C-USA Newcomer of the Year after throwing for 4,249 yards and 36 touchdowns, which are ranked No. 2 and No 4 in the country respectively. They are fortunate as Reed initially entered the transfer portal in hoping to go to Louisville but has since reversed course and will be playing with a chip on his shoulder. The rushing offense is not as good but the passing game has done enough to bring in the No. 10 ranked total offense and No. 18 ranked scoring offense. The Jaguars earlier faced Georgia Southern who came in with the No. 6 ranked passing offense and they were lit up by quarterback Kyle Vantrease yet escaped with a 14-point come-from-behind win. 10* (226) Western Kentucky Hilltoppers

This is a play on the SAN JOSE ST. SPARTANS for our CFB Tuesday Supreme Annihilator. San Jose St. comes in as a relatively short favorite hear which is based on its 0-6 ATS stretch to close the season as the public rides those streaks while those are the ones we go against. San Jose St. comes in with two key edges in the quarterback matchup and the defensive advantage. Quarterback Chevan Cordeiro, an All-Mountain West second-team selection has thrown for 2,885 yards with 20 touchdowns and just four interceptions. The offense overall has not been great but it has been efficient as the Spartans are No. 4 in the country in turnover margin as they have only turned the ball over six times all season while the defense has grabbed 18 takeaways. Corderio has led an offense that is No. 34 in passing and while facing a tough passing defense, he should be just fine here. The Spartans are 16-6-1 ATS in their last 23 games against teams with a winning record. Eastern Michigan brings in a similar offense overall but it is way down the ranks in both rushing and passing so it does not flourish in any one area. The Eagles are No. 86 in passing offense and No. 74 in rushing offense and they have a bad matchup here. Defensively, the Spartans are No. 25 overall and No. 22 in points allowed as they are a great pressure team and have the ability to get into the opponent backfield. San Jose St. in ranked No. 5 with 36 sacks on the season, led by defensive linemen Viliami Fehoko and Cade Hall which will be playing on Sunday in the near future, and the Eagles are ranked No. 85 in pass protection after giving up 30 sacks. Expect San Jose St. to be under pressure all day with quarterback Taylor Powell under duress. The Eagles are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game. Here, we play on teams after being beaten by the spread by 49 or more points total in their last five games, in December games. This situation is 55-21 ATS (72.4 percent) since 1992. 10* (222) San Jose St. Spartans

This is a play on the MARSHALL THUNDERING HERD for our CFB Monday Enforcer. In their first season under of head coach Jim Mora, the Huskies are back in a bowl for the first time since 2015 and have a chance for their first winning season since 2010. There is a ton of motivation for this program but this is not a good matchup. We played against Connecticut in its final game of the regular season and while it won the overall yardage battle, Army controlled the game with its rushing attack as it gained 320 yards on 5.5 ypc. Connecticut is ranked No. 88 in rushing defense and while the Marshall running game is a difference scheme than that of the Black Knights, it is still a powerful one. The Thundering Herd are No. 21 in rushing offense led by Khalan Labon and his 1,423 rushing yards and 16 touchdowns while freshman quarterback Cam Fancher has done a solid job taking over for an injured Henri Colombi and has led a balanced attack where he has also utilize his legs. On the other side, the Huskies rely solely on their running game as they are a solid No. 32 in rushing offense but have no passing game to speak of and that is a problem here. The Thundering Herd have the No. 5 rushing defense in the country so Connecticut will have a hard time getting anything going on the ground and relying on freshman quarterback Zion Turner is a problem as he has not been as effective as his counterpart as he has thrown for only 1,242 yards on the entire season while throwing just nine touchdowns and seven interceptions. It has been a nice story for the Huskies but playing a soft Independent schedule helped as they are ranked just No. 132 in the current ratings and are ranked below many teams with losing records. This will be a boring game with a lot of running on both sides with Marshall having the ability to control the line of scrimmage from start to finish. 10* (220) Marshall Thundering Herd

This is a play on the FRESNO ST. BULLDOGS for our CFB Saturday Supreme Annihilator. Fresno St. had a rough start to the season as it opened 1-4 due to the loss of starting quarterback Jake Haener but his return brought a resurgence as the Bulldogs closed the season with six straight wins as the defense also picked it up late. Haener has thrown for 2,616 yards on 72.6 percent completions while throwing 18 touchdowns and only three picks and has an ideal matchup here. This line has done a big flip but justifiably so with the Cougars taking a big hit with absences. Washington St. is down some key players and personnel heading into its bowl game. Wide receivers De'Zhaun Stribling and Donovan Ollie and middle linebackers Francisco Mauigoa and Travion Brown went into the transfer portal. But the biggest one is outside linebacker Daiyan Henley, an All-Pac-12 first-team selection, opted out of the LA Bowl to declare for the NFL draft. Additionally, defensive coordinator Brian Ward left for Arizona St. early this month while offensive coordinator Eric Morris left the team to take over the head coaching job at North Texas. The transfer portal has done a number on a bunch of teams and Washington St. has been one of the most affected and scrambling in an early bowl game makes it more demanding. The Cougars had won three straight games before getting pummeled by Washington in the Apple Cup to close the regular season. Here, we play on teams after allowing 17 points or less in three straight games going up against an opponent after a loss by 17 or more points. This situation is 54-25 ATS (68.4 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (211) Fresno St. Bulldogs

This is a play on the CLEMSON TIGERS for our ACC Game of the Month. Clemson came up small for us last week in a 31-30 loss against South Carolina as the passing game was non-existent with just 99 yards through the air which negated another great game from the rushing attack. With that defeat, the Tigers are out of the CFP picture but they would have been out nevertheless as they did not get any needed help from other teams last week. Now, the goal is to regain the ACC Championship title that they held for six consecutive years before Pittsburgh won it in 2021. While the offense struggled through the air, the Tigers rushed for 237 yards against the Gamecocks, the fourth time in the last five games they have surpassed 200 rushing yards. They face a North Carolina defense that is very bad at all levels that will get lit up here. Quarterback D.J. Uiagalelei was just 8-29 through the air but head coach Dabo Swinney gave him the vote of confidence as he will start this week. The secondary gave up over 350 yards passing to South Carolina and that is concerning with Drake Maye and the high-powered Tar Heels offense on deck and we should see a better effort in this rebound spot. Defensive coordinator Wes Goodwin knows getting his group back with the right mindset will be key, and early on he has liked the way the unit has responded. Since claiming the ACC Coastal Division title three weeks ago, and knowing the ACC championship matchup with Clemson was forthcoming, North Carolina lost its final two games of the regular season so that is not the momentum it wants coming into this game. there is not a whole lot to say about this team as it is very transparent with a great offense and an awful defense and both matchups are not in their favor this week especially against a Clemson team out for blood after having its 40-game home winning streak come to an end. Here, we play on teams in the second half of the season averaging 4.8 or more ypc and after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards last game going up against teams allowing between 4.3 and 4.8 ypc. This situation is 34-13 ATS (72.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (321) Clemson Tigers

This is a play on the TULANE GREEN WAVE for our CFB Saturday Enforcer. Tulane captured the AAC regular season championship with its victory at Cincinnati last Saturday, snapping the Bearcats 32-game home winning streak, and closed the season with a perfect 5-0 record on the road. They return home where the Green Wave get to host the championship game in looking to add to their 5-2 record at Yulman Stadium. One loss came against Southern Mississippi by three points despite outgaining the Golden Eagles 198 total yards with the difference being allowing an interception return for a touchdown late in the fourth quarter. The other defeat came against these Knights 38-31 in a game Tulane never led so there will be plenty of motivation in addition to its first ever AAC Championship. Head coach Willie Fritz has led the Green Wave to only their second double-digit win campaign in program history that runs 118 seasons so this has been a special one and the fear of him leaving is gone as it was announced Tuesday that he will be around amid rumors he was leaving for Georgia Tech. Tulane is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 games against teams averaging 31 or more ppg. Central Florida was in the championship game no matter the result of the Tulane/Cincinnati game as it defeated both and it limped in to end the regular season with a loss against Navy and then a seven-point win against South Florida as a 19.5-point favorite. Going through the motions was probably inevitable and while the Knights come in riding a three-game road winning streak, all of those wins were by one possession and this is a tough travel spot with this being their fourth road game in five weeks. They will expect to see a better defensive effort from Tulane this time around as they put up 336 yards rushing in the first meeting but 67 of those yards came on one play. Central Florida 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games after scoring 42 points or more last game. Here, we play on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points revenging an upset loss against opponent as a home favorite, off a win by seven points or less over a conference rival. This situation is 40-14 ATS (74.1 percent) since 1992. 10* (314) Tulane Green Wave

This is a play on the BOISE ST. BRONCOS for our CFB Supreme Annihilator. Boise St. came away with a win last week against Utah St. in one of the craziest endings of the season that got the Broncos the cover and they bring in a three-game winning streak into the championship game. They rolled to an 8-0 record in the conference with all four home wins coming by at least 19 points. Boise St. is 5-1 at home with the lone loss coming against BYU that was decided on an acrobatic catch by the Cougars and played into their victory. Offensively, the Broncos are ranked No. 28 in rushing offense and racked up a season high 316 yards on the ground in the regular season meeting and should go off again against a Fresno St. rushing defense ranked No. 95 that allows 4.9 ypc on the road. The Broncos are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game. Fresno St. comes in on a heater as it has won seven straight games to win the MWC West Division by two games over San Diego St. and San Jose St. The Bulldogs went 3-3 on the road with the three wins coming within the conference against teams that finished 3-21 in the MVC. The best news for Fresno St. is that is has a healthy Jake Haener at quarterback as he missed four games but the bad news is the defense they will be facing. Haener faced just two defenses that were ranked inside the top 40 and those resulted in a loss to Oregon St. and a narrow midseason win over San Diego St. were he totaled only four touchdowns and had two of his three interceptions on the season. Boise St. enters with the No. 7 ranked total defense and No. 9 ranked total defense and the Broncos are ranked in the top 5 in four passing defense statistics so they can shut him down. He did not play in the 40-20 loss early in the season. The Bulldogs are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. here, we play against teams where the line is +3 to -3 revenging a road loss against opponent by 14 points or more, off three straight wins against conference rivals. This situation is 38-13 ATS (74.5 percent) since 1992. 10* (316) Boise St. Broncos

This is a play on the USC TROJANS for our Pac 12 Championship Winner. Utah has a shot to make it to back-to-back Rose Bowl games which would be the first team since Stanford did it in 2013 and 2014 but it will not be easy with this matchup. Last season, the Utes had a big mismatch with Oregon which it also dominated during the regular season and while they have already defeated USC this season, that game was at home and it was far from a domination in a one-point victory. Utah backed into this game as it went down to the fourth tiebreaker between them, Washington and Oregon and it had the edge in conference strength of schedule of the three. The Utes finished 6-0 at home but only 3-3 away from home with all three of those wins coming in the Pac 12 against teams that had losing conference records. This is no doubt an all-around great team as they are ranked in the top 20 on both sides of the ball but the difference here will be its defense will not be able to stop the USC offense similar to where it allowed 556 yards in the regular season meeting at that was at home. The Trojans had a couple scares along the way with one possession wins at Arizona, Oregon St. and UCLA but they won the yardage battle in all of those true road games and the Utah game was the lone game they were outgained this season and that was by only six total yards. This offense has been humming as USC has scored 38 or more points in six straight games while accumulating over 500 yards five times, averaging 551.3 ypg over that stretch and there is no reason for that to end especially against a defense that is has already schooled. Quarterback Caleb Williams has come into his own as he has averaged 353.6 ypg with 20 touchdowns over the last six games after averaging 265.0 ypg with 14 touchdowns in his first six games and he has tossed only three interceptions all season long. The Trojans are back and a win gets them into the CFP as long as there is no Ohio St. bias. 10* (306) USC Trojans

This is a play on the APPALACHIAN ST. MOUNTAINEERS for our CFB Saturday Supreme Annihilator. This is the lone game on Saturday that features a matchup of both teams needing to win to become bowl eligible. Appalachian St. had a promising start to the season as it opened 5-3 but it has lost two of its last three games and is now in must win mode. The Mountaineers do have six wins but they need seven victories to become bowl eligible since two of their wins have come against FCS teams and they are out to extend their streak of seven straight seasons of being bowl eligible. They are coming off a dominating performance last week against Old Dominion as they amassed 498 total yards, the most against a conference opponent this season and their 207 rushing yards made it five times this year they have gone over 200 yards rushing and that is bad news for a Georgia Southern defense that is ranked No. 130 in rushing defense. Georgia Southern was looking like a bowl shoe in as it was 5-3 with three home games over its final four contests but it has dropped its last three games and now it is do or die for the Eagles. There is plenty of motivation on this side as well however this team has been fraudulent for most of the season. An early season over Nebraska looked good at the time but that is no longer the case and Georgia Southern has now been outgained in eight straight games as the defense continues to be an issue. In addition to the poor rushing defense, the Eagles are ranked No. 129 overall and No. 108 in points allowed and while the offense has shown good flashes, they will be facing a tough Mountaineers defense that is ranked No. 28 overall and No. 49 in scoring. They have been led by quarterback Kyle Vantrease who leads the No. 8 ranked passing offense but he has completed just 61 percent of his passes while throwing 13 interceptions. 10* (173) Appalachian St. Mountaineers

This is a play on the UTEP MINERS for our CFB Saturday Enforcer. With 15 starters returning this season, the Miners were out for a big season after going 7-6 last year as they were out to put together consecutive winning seasons for the first time in 17 years. It has come down to the final game of the regular season for the Miners as they are 5-6 and need a victory to become bowl eligible. The bad news is they are massive underdogs which does not give them much of a chance but the matchup could be on their side here against what we think is an overvalued UTSA team. UTEP took out FIU last week which snapped a two-game losing streak and it looks to win consecutive games for the second time this season. The strength of the offense is the running game as the Miners are ranked No. 58 and have added another dimension in backup quarterback Calvin Brownholtz who was part of a season high 335 yards rushing last week. That will be the key here as a big underdog is always appealing when controlling the running game and eating clock. UTSA enters its final regular season game with a 9-2 record including a perfect 7-0 record in C-USA and is gearing up for the championship game and a second straight double-digit win season. The two losses this season have come against Houston and Texas so there have been no bad losses and while the Roadrunners are riding an eight-game winning streak, the last three games have come against teams playing their backup quarterback so the last two games that were combined victories of 92-14 are slightly skewed because of that. They are solid on offense, ranked No. 13 overall and No. 14 in scoring and while taking nothing away from that, playing a schedule ranked No. 114 in the country has helped. This will be the second straight season the Roadrunners will be hosting the C-USA Championship after clinching that feat last week so there is definitely the letdown factor as well. 10* (223) UTEP Miners

This is play on the BUFFALO BULLS for our CFB Saturday Afternoon Dominator. Unfortunately, Buffalo is a team that got a tough break due to the winter storm last weekend as its game against 1-9 Akron was cancelled and it originally forced Buffalo to win this game against Kent St. to become bowl eligible. The good news is that it was announced on Wednesday that the game has been rescheduled for Friday, December 2 so they now have two shots once again and as we all know with the MAC, anything can happen and if Buffalo had played and won, this game would not be as important but now it is and the Bulls do not want to wait for a week to capture a bowl bid. It was not that long ago that the Bulls sat atop the MAC East Division but they have lost their last two games including a 45-24 loss at first place Ohio that sealed their fate. Kent St. lost at home against Eastern Michigan last week which pushed the Golden Flashes to 4-7 and their season ends on Saturday and the chance to play in back-to-back bowl games for the first time in program history is gone. Kent St. has outgained only two FBS opponents this season and now it has to close out the season with nothing to play for and might have to do so without quarterback Collin Schlee as he left the last game against the Eagles with an injuries and will be a gametime decision. It is likely he does not go so he does not get worse with nothing on the line. This will deter the offense that is ranked No. 41 overall and Devin Kargman showed he is not ready for primetime as he went just 7-19 for 91 yards last week in relief. Whichever quarterback goes, it will not matter with the motivated Bulls getting back to the postseason after missing out last season after a run of three straight bowl games under then head coach Lance Leipold. 10* (172) Buffalo Bulls

This is a play on the CLEMSON TIGERS for our College Football Game of the Year. South Carolina is coming off its most complete game of the season as it pulled off one of the biggest upsets of the season, rolling over Tennessee 63-38 as it outgained the Volunteers 606-507 but that defensive effort is a little concerning heading into the season finale against rival Clemson. The Gamecocks improved to 7-4 on the season and while this is a big rivalry, there is little chance that they are going to replicate that game from this past Saturday. The previous six wins were all garbage victories as they defeated 4-7 Georgia St., 3-9 Charlotte and South Carolina St. of the FCS in nonconference action while the three SEC wins were against fading Kentucky, 5-6 Vanderbilt and 4-7 Texas A&M. South Carolina has been a road underdog of a touchdown or more twice this season and failed to cover both of those games, losing at Florida and Arkansas by a combined 36 points. Clemson dominated Miami last week 40-10 as it outgained the Hurricanes 447-98 and held Miami to only six first downs in a dominating victory for its second straight following that debacle at Notre Dame. This is the third straight home game for the Tigers where they are 6-0 and have outgained opponents by 134 ypg and could not be catching their rival at a better time. Clemson can actually thank South Carolina with that win over Tennessee as the Tigers will make a move up in the CFP rankings and keep its outside shot to making it into the playoffs alive and now it comes down to style points as a blowout win here and one against North Carolina in the ACC Championship will now look a whole lot better. They obviously need help but losses by TCU and USC over the next two weeks could put them in prime position as they are currently tied with the Trojans at No. 5 at +2000 so they are far from done. The 40-game home winning streak is extended with what looks like a great blowout spot. Here, we play against road teams off an upset win as a home underdog of seven points or more, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. This situation is 53-22 ATS (70.7 percent) since 1992. 10* (158) Clemson Tigers

This is a play on the FLORIDA GATORS for our CFB Friday Star Attraction. Florida and Florida St. enter this rivalry game the opposite of what many thought they would be before the season started. The Gators opened the season with a very impressive win over Utah which has looked better and better as the season has progressed based on the Utes success. They followed that up with a bad loss at Kentucky while the next three defeats against Tennessee, LSU and Georgia were no surprise but many will be eyeing what happened last week as Vanderbilt took out Florida by a touchdown as a 13.5-point underdog. The public sees that and will avoid the Gators and the books have made the adjustments to the line based on that but Florida outgained the Commodores by 162 total yards as it was hurt by two turnovers, one of which was a fumble that was recovered in the endzone for a Vanderbilt touchdown and they were just 4-15 on third down. In a rivalry like this, they will come to play to improve their bowl position. Florida St. meanwhile had low expectations and after a 4-0 start, heads started turning but then the Seminoles lost three straight games and the here we go again rumblings surfaced. But Florida St. recovered and has won four straight games to build some great momentum going forward to end the season and going into next year. However, those wins came against a bad Georgia Tech teams, an even worse Miami team, a Syracuse team that has fallen off the planet and last week a 5-6 Louisiana team from the Sun Belt Conference, not exactly a solid stretch of victories. The numbers are great as Florida St. is ranked No. 16 in total offense, No. 23 in scoring offense, No. 11 in total defense and No. 13 in scoring defense but this has come against a schedule ranked ahead of only Michigan and Washington of teams ranked in the Top 20. Here, we play against home teams in the second half of the season averaging between 230 and 275 passing ypg and after allowing 4.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game going up against teams allowing between 230 and 275 passing ypg. This situation is 41-17 ATS (70.7 percent) since 1992. 10* (135) Florida Gators

This is a play on the BAYLOR BEARS for our CFB Friday Afternoon Dominator. We won with Baylor last week against TCU even though it lost on a last second field goal and while that could typically provide a letdown going forward, not in this matchup. Texas always has a bullseye on its back and the Bears will be out to snap a two-game slide before heading into their bowl game. Baylor had won three straight games prior to last week where it put up a clunker against Kansas St. with its worst offensive performance of the season with just 306 yards and three points and some will argue that the Wildcats are a more complete team than TCU. The Baylor defense has struggled against the more finesse teams as it is a physical unit which matches up well against the Longhorns. Based on the line last week, Baylor would have roughly been a touchdown underdog had the game been at TCU and now the Bears are getting a bigger number at Texas? Sorry, that is plain wrong and it is based on name and name alone. The Bears are 4-1 ATS as underdogs this season and this is the biggest line they have seen all season. Texas is coming off one of its most complete efforts of the season as it rolled over Kansas, whose season has taken a downward spiral over the second half of the season, and the Longhorns are now 2-2 over their last four games following a three-game winning streak. Prior to the Kansas game, Texas was outgained in four straight games and have been outgained in six of their last 10 games. All four of their losses this season have been by one possession so they have been competitive throughout and have avoided the big blowout that seems to hit them at least once over the last few seasons. That being said, a season that could have been has turned into another average one and they are looking forward to another fresh start next year with Arch Manning coming to Austin. Here, we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points averaging between 5.6 and 6.2 yppl and after gaining 6.25 or more yppl in their previous game going up against teams allowing between 4.8 and 5.6 yppl. This situation is 42-19 ATS (68.9 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (115) Baylor Bears

This is a play on the CINCINNATI BEARCATS for our CFB Friday Enforcer. One thing that both Tulane and Cincinnati have in common is both of their losses came against Central Florida so should the Knights defeat South Florida as close to a three-touchdown favorite on Saturday, they are in the AAC Championship as they own the tiebreaker meaning the loser of this game is out. Tulane has had a very special season that no one saw coming as it is 9-2 with both losses coming at home and the Green Wave bring in a 4-0 road record so something has to give with Cincinnati being 5-0 at home. Tulane defeated Kansas St. on the highway early in the season and that has turned into a very impressive win but two of the other two wins came at South Florida and Tulsa, both of which are staying home for the postseason, with the fourth coming at Houston in overtime where they were outgained by 110 total yards. The Green Wave will have a challenge here and the first road loss of the season seems inevitable for a team that has not been in a situation like this in a long time. The Bearcats other loss came at Arkansas in their season opener so they have won nine of ten games with the four-point loss against the Knights being the only blemish. The season has not been as good as last season but it is better than expected with so much lost from that special year and they are on another mission with a New Year's Six bowl berth at stake. The five home wins have extended the Cincinnati home winning streak to 32 games and with a short line, a win likely means a cover. They have dominated here by outscoring opponents by 20 ppg with a couple close calls involved and overall, the defense has once again led the way as the Bearcats are No. 22 in both total defense and scoring defense and with quarterback Ben Bryant questionable, the defense will really have to step up which we totally expect. Here, we play on home teams with a winning percentage of .800 or better coming off a double digit road win, playing a team with a winning record. This situation is 63-30 ATS (67.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (164) Cincinnati Bearcats

This is a play on the MISSISSIPPI ST. BULLDOGS for our CFB Thursday Star Attraction. The Egg Bowl takes center stage on Thanksgiving night but the teams are not in the forefront as we head into the game but it is the coaches. The rumor mill, albeit from very substantial sources, have indicated that Mississippi head coach Lane Kiffin will be taking the head coaching job at Auburn as early as Friday and while he dismissed it and even addressed the team squashing the hearsay, his terminology was vague as he said he has not accepted any job and even Auburn said they have not hired a coach. Maybe not officially, but either way, this is a big distraction for a team that has gone in the wrong direction after a 7-0 start and a top seven ranking as the Rebels have lost three of their last four games including a blowout at Arkansas last week where the final score does not show the Razorbacks dominance. This was one of the most overrated teams in the country as the Rebels best win is arguably in their season opener against Troy and their four SEC wins came against three fraud teams in Kentucky, Auburn and Texas A&M that looked good coming into the season but clearly are not, and Vanderbilt. Mississippi St. is coming off a blowout win over East Tennessee St. which is a stupid scheduling spot but that is here nor there. The Bulldogs became bowl eligible well before that and of their four losses, three came on the road against Alabama, LSU and Kentucky with the loss against the Wildcats admittedly a bad one, and the home loss came against Georgia and while a game worse than the Rebels, they are arguably the better team as they possess the lone top 30 win of these two teams and have played a schedule ranked No. 17 compared to No. 43 for the Rebels. The stats are very close overall and going back to the coaching angle, there is a rumor on this side that Mike Leach is going to retire so there is a huge coach motivation advantage on the Mississippi St. side. Here, we play against teams where the line is +3 to -3 after allowing 6.25 or more yppl in their previous game going up against an opponent after outgaining opponent by 175 or more total yards in their previous game. This situation is 77-36 ATS (68.1 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (111) Mississippi St. Bulldogs

This is a play on the OREGON DUCKS for our CFB Saturday Supreme Annihilator. We lost with Oregon last week as it blew a great chance to take charge in the Pac 12 and a possible spot in the playoffs but still controls its own destiny to make a trip to the Pac 12 Championship. The winner here will face USC if the Trojans do not implode so there will be no letdown from that loss last week with what is still on the line. The Ducks outgained the Huskies by 70 yards but gave the game away on a questionable fourth down call in their own territory that led to the game-winning Washington field goal. Oregon piled up 592 yards of offense and while facing a strong defense here, it should have no issues once again with this spread attack that is ranked No. 2 in total offense and No. 4 in scoring offense and the running game got back on track with 312 yards last week. Quarterback Bo Nix had another solid game and has been outstanding with 2,775 yards passing with 24 touchdowns and five interceptions and two of his worst games came against Arizona and California of all teams but those were on the road. Utah has won four straight games that started win a huge one-point win over USC and three of those four wins came at home. The Utes are 2-2 on the road with the best win coming at Washington St. which is just 3-4 in the conference while the other came against Arizona St. which is staying home this bowl season. This is no doubt a very solid team but not on the same level from the Rose Bowl team from last season. Utah is No. 22 or better in total offense and defense and scoring offense and defense but are heading into a tough spot. The Utes defeated Oregon twice last season by a combined score of 76-17 and the Ducks have not forgotten those losses. 10* (394) Oregon Ducks

This is a play on the ARKANSAS RAZORBACKS for our CFB Saturday Enforcer. It has been an up and down season for Arkansas as it opened the season with three straight win, then lost three straight, bounced back with a pair of win and has since lost its last two games, both coming at home. This is a rare three-game homestand late in the season and the Razorbacks have to take advantage after a pair of tough losses against Liberty and LSU by a combined five points. Three of their five losses have come by a field goal or less and were in a bad spot last week against the Tigers as they had a season low 249 yards and 10 points having to play a hot team without their quarterback but KJ Jefferson will be back this week to knock off a Mississippi team that beat them by a point last season in triple overtime on a missed two-point conversion. The Razorbacks offense is a lot better that was on display last week in atypical cold temps without their leader and over, they are ranked No. 23 in total offense and face a defense that has regressed a lot over the second half of the season. Mississippi is coming off a tough home loss against Alabama and it was very capable of winning that game and it will be tough to recover from that. This was one of the most overrated teams in the country before it was eventually hammered at LSU 45-20 three games back and one look at the resume will show that. The Rebels best win is arguably in their season opener against Troy and that is a legit argument and their four SEC wins came against three fraud teams in Kentucky, Auburn and Texas A&M that looked good coming into the season but clearly are not, and Vanderbilt. The wins and stats are skewed and their schedule rank of No. 53 is second lowest in the SEC, only ahead of South Carolina by four spots. The fraud comes out again here. 10* (400) Arkansas Razorbacks

This is a play on the IOWA ST. CYCLONES for our CFB Big 12 Game of the Month. Raise your hand if you saw this one coming because we certainly did not. With two games left in the season, Iowa St. is sitting in last place in the Big 12 Conference at 1-6 after a 3-0 nonconference start so the Cyclones have to win out to become bowl eligible and with TCU on deck on the road, it is not looking good. First things first, they have to take care of business in their final home game of the season and it is a great spot to get right with a very favorable line. Iowa St. has outgained its opponent in four of its six losses and five of those losses have come by one possession so while losing, there has been some bad luck involved as opposed to bad play. The Cyclones defense is still one of the best in the country as they are ranked No. 10 overall and No. 10 in scoring and this includes No. 11 in passing defense and No. 12 in rushing defense so they are solid all around and can sloe down this Texas Tech offense. Iowa St. is 6-0 ATS in its last six games after a game where they committed three or more turnovers. We won with Texas Tech last week as it defeated Kansas 43-28 to move to 5-5 so it has to win one of its final two games, the finale coming against Oklahoma at home, to make it to a bowl game. The Red Raiders improved to 5-1 at home with the win over the Jayhawks but they hit the road where they are 0-4 with all four losses by double-digits and while those were all against winning teams, they were all against teams ranked No. 45 or better in the Sagarin ratings and Iowa St. is well within that group despite the losing record. The offense has led the way this season as it is No. 18 overall and No. 31 in scoring and will not be efficient here. The defense has been the big letdown at No. 81 in total defense and the No. 83 ranked Iowa St. offense will have a solid opportunity as the last time it faced a defense this bad, it hung 34 points on West Virginia. Texas Tech is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 games after one or more consecutive wins against the spread. 10* (320) Iowa St. Cyclones

This is a play on the BAYLOR BEARS for our CFB Saturday Afternoon Dominator. TCU remains No. 4 in the latest CFP rankings sitting at 10-0 and hit the road for the final time and are only laying a field goal or less to Baylor. The line opened at -2 and has been bet up which is no surprise with close to 70 percent of tickets and money on the Horned Frogs and come gameday, the public will be all over them. TCU has outgained all but one opponent this season but of late, it has been hardly dominant, outgaining the last three by 84 yards or less. This is a great story for a team that came into the season with a win total set at 6.5 and since playing Colorado and Tarleton St. to open the season, the Horned Frogs have not been favored by more than nine points and that is a telling sign compared to the other top ranked teams that are laying over two touchdowns and much more on a weekly basis. The offense has been great but will be facing a very formidable defense here and its own defense is below with its best category being rushing where it is a pedestrian No. 44 in the country. This is the ripe spot for that small upset. Baylor had won three straight games prior to last week where it put up a clunker against Kansas St. with its worst offensive performance of the season with just 306 yards and three points and some will argue that the Wildcats are a more complete team than TCU. The Bears will be seething after that and will no doubt want to put an end to this Cinderella story especially in their final home game of the season. The defense will be the focal point in performing well and it needs to be noted that last week against Texas, a defense that is right in line with Baylor, held the Horned Frogs to season lows in points and yards. As for the offense, the Bears are No. 34 overall and No. 25 in scoring and can no doubt get back on track here. 10* (398) Baylor Bears

This is a play on the ILLINOIS FIGHTING ILLINI for our CFB Saturday Star Attraction. Michigan has rolled through its schedule with nine of ten wins coming by double-digits but has not played anyone with the exception of Penn St. which played the Wolverines tough for a half before getting rolled in the second half. The nonconference schedule of games against Colorado St., Hawaii and Connecticut was an absolute joke and think that is going to come back to haunt them at some point. They were favored by only a touchdown in that game and are now well over that here which is based on the Illinois recent run. One big factor in this game is the total which is currently 41.5 as of Wednesday and that suggests a low scoring game which always favors the underdog, let alone one getting this many points. The Michigan rushing offense is ranked No. 4 in the country as it has run over everyone but this is a very tough spot as the lowest total yardage output of the season came against Iowa, one of the best defenses in the country and now faces an even better one here. Illinois is coming off a pair of disappointing losses against Michigan St. and Purdue and the loss against the Spartans was especially disheartening as they outgained by 147 total yards and it felt the sting as it could not recover last week. While the Wolverines have the top ranked defense in the country, both overall and in scoring, Illinois is ranked No. 2 and No. 3 in the nation respectively in those categories and will bank on that to keep this game close. We can see that happening as an ugly game is just what the Illini want and keep this close. Michigan has the Ohio St. game on deck and escaping with a win is all it needs as it is comfortably in a CFP spot where style points will not matter. 10* (343) Illinois Fighting Illini

This is a play on the TULANE GREEN WAVE for our AAC Game of the Month. Tulane had its five-game losing streak snapped with a 38-81 loss at home against Central Florida and it is now tied atop the AAC at 5-1 with the Knights and Cincinnati so this is a must win to get a chance to go to the AAC Championship with their season finale next week at the Bearcats. The only other loss this season came against Southern Mississippi at home by three points despite outgaining the Golden Eagles by 198 total yards as it was done in by an interception returned for a touchdown midway through the fourth quarter. The Green Wave have those two losses at home and with this being the last home game of the season on Senior Night on national TV, they will be out to get it done. This is an excellent matchup as while they face a top ranked offense, the defense has led the way as they are No. 20 overall and No. 18 in scoring and the effort last week will be fresh in their head. The Tulane offense is slightly behind at No. 49 overall and No. 37 in scoring and can get the job done here against a porous defense. SMU has won three straight games and the Mustangs have covered four in a row which is an auto play against given the right situation and this is definitely it. The offense has had two of its top three season performances over their last two games but this is the best defense it has seen over that stretch and the only other top ranked defense it has faced was against Cincinnati and was held to 24 points. The Mustangs have been outgained is five of their last seven games and that is due to the defense that has been a sieve. SMU is ranked No. 120 in total defense and No. 117 is scoring defense and Tulane can have its way here. Revenge is a factor after Tulane lost at SMU last season 55-26 and was outgained by close to 200 yards. Here, we play against road underdogs after going over the total by 49 or more points total in their last five games, in weeks 10 through 13. This situation is 38-11 ATS (77.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (314) Tulane Green Wave

This is a play on the KENT ST. GOLDEN FLASHES for our CFB Wednesday Enforcer. It has been a disappointing season for Kent St. even though it started very similar to last season but the recent results have not been the same. In 2021, after a 1-3 nonconference start, the losses against Texas A&M, Iowa and Maryland, the Golden Flashes righted the ship, going 6-2 in the conference and went to the MAC Championship for the first time since 2012. They started this season 1-3 1-3 in nonconference action with losses against Washington, Oklahoma and Georgia but the MAC results have seen them go just 3-3 with two of those losses coming by just one possession and while they have no chance in the MAC East Division, they have a lot to play for as they have to win their final two games to become bowl eligible. They are coming off a big 40-6 win at Bowling Green last week and now Kent St. hosts its final home game of the season before travelling to Buffalo to close out the regular season. Comparing the offenses and defenses in this matchup, the Golden Flashes have one significant edge which is in the running game as they are ranked No. 19 in the nation, averaging 210.3 ypg and face a poor rushing defense here. Kent St. is 7-0 ATS in its last seven home games after allowing nine points or less last game. Eastern Michigan defeated Akron in its last game to become bowl eligible but it was just a six-point victory over the worst team in the conference and one of the worse in the country. The Eagles nonconference was unlike that of Kent St. and while it includes a win over Arizona St., that was when the Sun Devils has quit on their coach while another came against Eastern Kentucky of the FCS by one possession and the third came against 1-9 Massachusetts by one possession as well. Two of their three conference losses were by 19 and 29 points and while they played Toledo tough in a 27-24 loss, they were outgained by 157 total yards. Eastern Michigan is ranked No. 104 in total offense and while the defense is better, it is not by much and that rushing defense is ranked No. 89 in the nation. Eastern Michigan is 4-20 ATS in its last 24 games after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game. Here, we play on teams averaging 4.8 or more ypc and after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards last game going up against teams allowing between 4.3 and 4.8 ypc. This situation is 33-8 ATS (80.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (306) Kent St. Golden Flashes

This is a play on the OREGON DUCKS for our CFB Saturday Supreme Annihilator. Washington defeated Oregon St. on a late field goal to improve to 4-2 in the Pac Ten and 7-2 overall but now finds itself in a tough spot facing one of the hottest teams in the country. The Huskies are just 1-2 on the road and those losses both came when favored and this is the first time this season that they have gotten points which shows the slate they have faced. The passing attack is the best in the country but it is a very unbalanced offense as Washington is ranked No. 99 in rushing offense. The defense allows 26.9 ppg which is just No. 75 in the country and the one offense it has faced that is potent was UCLA and they allowed 500 yards. Oregon has reeled off eight straight wins following its loss against Georgia in the season opener where it could muster only three points and 313 yards of offense. Since then, the Ducks have scored at least 41 points in every game and has gone over 500 yards six times. The run has put the Ducks at No. 6 in the CFP rankings with the loss against the Bulldogs obviously not being a bad one as they are the top ranked of the three 8-1 teams from the Pac 12. Quarterback Bo Nix has been outstanding with 2,495 yards passing and 22 touchdowns and just five interceptions while rushing for 457 yards and 13 touchdowns. There is one key stat that is skewed as Oregon is ranked No. 117 in passing defense but a lot of those yards have come because of teams needing to play catch up and yards piled up in garbage time. Ony a backdoor cover by Washington St. back in September has prevented Oregon from being on a perfect 8-0 ATS run which shows the dominance it has put forth. Here, we play on home favorites averaging 440 or more ypg and after gaining 7.25 or more yppl in two consecutive games going up against teams allowing between 330 and 390 ypg. This situation is 71-27 ATS (72.4 percent) since 1992. 10* (194) Oregon Ducks

This is a play on the TEXAS TECH RED RAIDERS for our CFB Saturday Enforcer. Kansas has been the story on the Big 12 Conference and it made it into the AP Poll for the first time since 2009 and became bowl eligible with a win over Oklahoma St. last week for the first time since 2008. With that demon having left the building, we can see a letdown this week. The offense has led the way as the Jayhawks are No. 36 overall and No. 15 in scoring with quarterback Jalon Daniels being a big part of that but he remains out after missing the last four games but Jason Bean has performed well in relief yet he has been on the wrong side of their three losses. The defense was the big problem in those games and has been all season as Kansas is No. 113 in total defense including No. 121 in passing defense which falls right into the Texas Tech wheelhouse. Kansas is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games after gaining 350 or more rushing yards last game. Texas Tech has lost two straight games and four of its last five following a 3-1 so it needs to more wins to make it to a bowl game and this is essentially a must win with remaining games at Iowa St. and at home against Oklahoma. The Red Raiders held their own against TCU last week as they lost by just 10 points on the road and was outgained by only 83 yards. The home team has dominated their games this season, going 8-1 including Texas Tech going 4-1 at home. The Red Raiders are ranked No. 11 in passing offense and while quarterback Behren Morton was forced to leave last week against TCU and is questionable this week but this is not as there is experience behind him that has seen plenty of time. Texas Tech is 6-0 ATS in its last six games coming off a road loss. Here, we play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points off a home win against a conference rival going up against an opponent off two consecutive losses by 10 points or more to conference rivals. This situation is 26-6 ATS (81.2 percent) since 1992. 10* (158) Texas Tech Red Raiders