Sports Picks & Predictions

This is a play on IOWA ST. for our SATURDAY ENFORCER. This game sets up perfectly for Iowa St. as three weeks ago, the Cyclones probably would have been favored here but now that Texas is again back on the public radar, the overadjusted line is in full force. The Longhorns upset Oklahoma three weeks ago then had a bye week and then defeated Kansas St. last week, which has some of its worst talent in years. Now they go from a seven-point home favorite to a road favorite of nearly the same because name and recent history. Iowa St. is just 2-5 on the season including losses in three straight games but those three games were against Baylor, TCU and Texas Tech. Those teams are ranked first, second and third in total offense respectively in the nation. Texas is ranked 107th so it is safe to say that the defense takes a big step down in class. It may be a surprise to some that the offense is what has made headlines this week as offensive coordinator Mark Mangino was fired as well it was announced that Joel Lanning would replace Sam B. Richardson as the Cyclones starting quarterback. While these moves may be a cause for concern, this is when the players rally around everyone. This is especially the case here where this game has been circled for a while. Two years ago, the Cyclones were in position to win but the referees misses a pair of fumble calls and Texas won by a point and followed it up with a three-point last season. And then there is the bulletin board material from Texas defensive tackle Paul Boyette stating that Iowa St. is not a very good team. The Cyclones are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games against teams with a losing road record while going 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games against teams averaging 150 or fewer passing ypg. 10* (164) Iowa St. Cyclones

The Vanderbilt offense has been horrible of late but playing in the SEC can do that to teams. Now playing an out of conference game against a team with a weak defense can change that. The Commodores have scored a grand total of 53 points over their last four games and they have been terribly inefficient, ranking 115th nationally in turnovers and 126th in red-zone scoring. While not great numbers, they take on a Cougars defense that has been very inconsistent as well. They have allowed just 17 points the last two games but those came against UCF and Tulane which are a combined 2-13. The Houston offense will give Vanderbilt a challenge even though the Commodores possess a tough stop unit. Houston's offense is averaging 569 ypg over the last five games while scoring no fewer than 38 points. This is the lowest over/under the Cougars have seem all season and it is that way because of the results from Vanderbilt which has yet to go over a total this season. Houston is 16-6 to the over in its last 22 home games coming off a double-digit conference win while going 12-3 to the over in its last 15 home games after scoring 24 or more points in the first half of its previous game. While the Commodores are on an under run, they are 9-3-1 to the over in their last 13 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. 10* Over (167) Vanderbilt Commodores/(168) Houston Cougars

This is a play on NC STATE for our ACC GAME OF THE YEAR. Clemson is one of the bigger surprises in the country as it has climbed the charts from a preseason No. 12 team to its current ranking of No. 3 in the AP Poll. The Tigers leapfrogged LSU and TCU from the No. 6 spot because of the 58-0 win over Miami and while the voters made a kneejerk reaction, the linesmakers have as well. They opened the season with wins over Wofford and Appalachian St. then snuck by Louisville and Notre Dame, the latter which should have been a loss, followed by wins over Georgia Tech, losers of five straight and a mediocre Boston College team. Sure, Clemson is undefeated but other than a fortunate win in a monsoon over the Irish where they were actually outgained by 141 yards, the Tigers are a tad overrated. NC State won three games in 2013 in Dave Doeren's first season but turned things around last season by recording eight wins and this team is even better. Two straight losses against Louisville and Virginia Tech have the Wolfpack 1-2 in the ACC but this is a very underrated team. Florida transfer Jacoby Brissett quarterback is one of the best that no one has heard of as he has an absurd 33/6 TD/INT ratio the last two seasons and can keep this team in this game from an underdog standpoint. Clemson has played a tougher schedule but the fact it is outgaining opponents by 201.9 while the Wolfpack are outgaining opponents by just 40 ypg less shows these teams are much more eve. Here, we play against road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points in a game involving two teams outgaining opponents by 100 or more ypg, after gaining 6.25 or more yppl in their previous game. This situation is 48-17 ATS (73.9 percent) since 1992. 10* (136) NC State Wolfpack

It has been a tale of two seasons for San Diego St. After defeating San Diego on the FCS, the Aztecs dropped three in a row but they have caught fire since then with four consecutive victories and with that comes value issues. They are now a road favorite for the first time this season which is pretty aggressive for a team that has previously struggled in this role. Colorado St. picked up its first conference win with a convincing victory against Air Force and is now a game under .500 in the MWC and overall. That game took place two weeks ago so the Rams have the edge for added preparation and rest following seven straight weeks of action. Two losses this season have come in overtime while a third loss against Utah St. was due to a 3-0 disadvantage in turnovers. San Diego St. now goes from a home underdog to a road favorite which is very aggressive switch and the Aztecs have a negative situation on their side as we play against any team with a winning percentage between .600 and .800 that is coming off a win by 21 or more points as an underdog, playing a team with a losing record. This situation is 37-11 ATS (77.1 percent) since 1992. Additionally, San Diego St. is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 games after three or more consecutive wins against the spread while Colorado St. is 22-9 ATS in its last 31 home games after having lost two out of their last three games. 10* (148) Colorado St. Rams

This has the makings of a shootout which is the reason for the big number. The California offense is an explosive one but has been held in check the last two games against Utah and UCLA as it scored just 24 points in each game. Those were both on the road however so a return home is what the Golden Bears need to get the offense going again. Possible No. 1 pick in next year's NFL Draft, Jared Goff, leads the passing offense that ranks second behind only pass happy Washington State in the Pac 12 with 346 ypg. The Trojans did a phenomenal job getting pressure on Travis Wilson last week, forcing him into throwing four interceptions, but have been exposed by the likes of Kevin Hogan and DeShone Kizer. The young secondary will surely be tested here. USC quarterback Cody Kessler isn't far behind as the Trojans are averaging over 326 ypg which is 14th in the nation and he has thrown 18 touchdowns to just five interceptions. The Golden Bears have allowed 70 points the last two games while giving up 259.6 ypg and 12.4 yards per completion as the secondary is a very weak unit. California's secondary was carved up by UCLA freshman QB Josh Rosen, who completed 34-of-47 passes for 399 yards and three touchdowns. Kessler had a huge game against Cal last season, completing 31-of-42 for 371 yards with four touchdowns and one interception. 10* Over (153) USC Trojans/(154) California Golden Bears

We played on Old Dominion last week and got burned as Florida International scored the game's final 24 points and pulled out the cover. The Monarchs actually won the yardage battle by 50 total yards and we are coming back with them here as a massive home underdog. They were getting 14 points on the road last week and are now getting over three touchdowns at home with a lot of that due to them not having covered a game yet this season. Old Dominion is 0-7 ATS which gives us huge contrarian value. Western Kentucky is a very solid team no doubt and had its four-game winning streak snapped last week at LSU. The Hilltoppers will be out to get back into the win column but laying this type of road lumber is too much. They were big road favorite at North Texas and won by 27 points but the Mean Green are one of the worst teams in the nation, sitting at 0-7. This is the third straight road game for Western Kentucky which puts it into a very tough position especially when being asked to win in a blowout. The Hilltoppers are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 road games after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored while going 0-6 ATS in their last six road games after allowing 6.25 or more yppl in their previous game. While the Monarchs have yet to cover this season, it is important to note that this is the largest spread they have seen all season and it will prove to be too much. 10* (182) Old Dominion Monarchs

We played against Rutgers last week as it managed just seven points against the Buckeyes and while it is facing another tough defense, there is the hope of more offense this week. The Scarlet Knights defense has been atrocious of late as they have allowed 49 and 52 points which is right around where this number sits and it happens to be the lowest over/under Rutgers since facing Penn St. back on September 19th. The under has come in four of their last five games which helps with the value and the number itself. Wisconsin is on a much longer streak as it has stayed below the total in six straight games after starting the season 2-0 to the over. Defense has been the story as the Badgers have allowed just 7.7 ppg throughout this under streak while the offense has been pretty average. Wisconsin has scored no more than 28 points but it has faced some tough defenses along the way and Rutgers is not classified in that group. The Scarlet Knights are ranked 111th in total defense so the Badgers are expected to have a big day offensively. Despite the recent run of unders, Wisconsin is 15-3 to the over in its last 18 home games coming off a double-digit conference win and 28-14 to the over in its last 42 games when playing against teams with a losing record. 10* Over (131) Rutgers Scarlet Knights/(132) Wisconsin Badgers

Rice comes in a big home underdog despite being right in the thick of the C-USA West Division race as a win here could put the Owls in first place. They are coming off a pair of unimpressive wins over Florida Atlantic and Army West Point but at 4-3 and 2-1, there is not a huge dropoff between the Owls and Louisiana Tech as much as this line is telling us. Rice had to contend with some poor weather each of its last two weeks and that has had a lot to do with the closer than expected results. Louisiana Tech bounced back from a non-conference beating against Mississippi St. with a big win over Middle Tennessee St. by 29 points. That improved the Bulldogs to 3-1 in C-USA which is good for a tie for first place with Southern Mississippi in the C-USA West Division. They have been favored on the road in half of their four road games and failed to cover either of those as both of those games resulted in three-point decisions. Rice has had this game circled for a while as it came into the season finale against Louisiana Tech with a 7-4 record and got pounded 76-31 while getting outgained 677-371. It was a 28-24 game until the Bulldogs ran off 41 unanswered points and the 76 points allowed were the most since the Owls allowed 77 points against LSU back in 1977 so that is a pretty big motivator. Louisiana Tech is 8-21 ATS in its last 29 games off a win by 21 or more points while Rice is 18-3 ATS in its last 21 home games after gaining 6.25 or more yppl in its previous game. 10* (120) Rice Owls

We are laying a large number here with Georgia Southern but this has the potential to be a woodshed job. We played against the Eagles last Thursday as they ended up getting trounced by Appalachian St. which put them a half-game behind the Mountaineers and Red Wolves in the Sun Belt Conference. Appalachian St. became the first team to ever defeat the Eagles in a Sun Belt Conference game as they were 11-0 in Sun Belt play since joining the league in 2014. That alone should provide plenty of motivation heading into this week. Texas St. snapped a three-game skid with a home win over South Alabama and while the scoreboard showed an 18-point win, the Bobcats were actually outgained by 44 yards. They have been outgained in all five games against FBS teams and in three road games, they have been outgained by a total of 799 yards so clearly they have struggled on the highway. As far as a matchup edge, the Eagles have run the ball on 81.8 percent of their plays, totaling 31 rushing touchdowns and 2,587 rushing yards this season. Both marks lead the entire nation and they face a Texas St. defense that is ranked is 123rd in rushing defense. Don't expect the Eagles to look past Texas St. as they have a game with Troy on deck so there is no lookahead and they have not forgotten last year when they defeated the Bobcats by just three points while getting outgained 439-268. Following its first loss of the season, a 44-0 drubbing against West Virginia, Appalachian St. bounced back with a 26-point win over a solid Western Michigan team and we should see an even bigger blowout Thursday. 10* (110) Georgia Southern Eagles

Florida Atlantic looks to grab its second win of the season with the first coming against Charlotte which is in its first full year in the FBS. The Owls won and covered that game despite getting outgained by the 49ers and while they come in after suffering a couple close losses, they are overpriced here. They have been a horrible favorite of late, going 11-22 in their last 33 games as a favorite. UTEP has been a major disappointment thus far as it is 2-4 and was expected to contend for a second straight bowl game. While that is certainly still a possibility, this is a must win situation. The Miners need a statement win, and although a win against the second-to-last place team in the conference might not impress most, it could work as a confidence boost that the team desperately needs. Although the Miners have struggled, the team remains positive. The team is taking their losses, but not losing sight of the good things they have accomplished. UTEP is coming off its bye week and head coach Sean Kugler conveyed that it was a very productive week off where coaches did self evaluations on players and units to try and make improvements all-around. The Miners are one of a couple teams in the country that have yet to cover a game this season, going 0-5-1 ATS so it is not a huge surprise they are the underdogs here based on that reason. Going back, they are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games following a road loss by 28 or more points while the Owls are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games following a double-digit loss at home. 10* (404) UTEP Miners

Old Dominion is coming off a win last week against Charlotte as it spotted the 49ers early leads but came back to move to 3-3 on the season including 1-1 in C-USA. The Monarchs did not play a great game as they were outgained by 54 yards but did enough in the passing game to pull out the victory. They now hit the road where they are 1-1 and look to get back over .500 after starting the season 2-0 prior to losing three straight games. They have been underdogs in three of their last four games including the lone road game at Marshall which is 6-1 and was favored by roughly only three points more than what they are getting here. That has a lot to do with the fact Old Dominion has yet to cover a game this season and the public is flocking the other side which is inflating this line. Florida International is coming off a loss against Middle Tennessee to fall to 3-4 on the season and 1-2 in the conference. The Golden Panthers do come in with a 2-0 record at home but both of those opponents are not in the same group with Old Dominion. The Monarchs match up well here as they face a very tough passing offense but lately, the Monarchs have had a better pass defense as they have allowed only 195.8 ypg through the air over their last five matchups. The Golden Panthers are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game. 10* (387) Old Dominion Monarchs

Based on contrarian theory, which I am a big believer in, this has a potential to be a very high scoring game. Recent results completely go against that but that is where we get the most value as these totals need to be adjusted almost to the point where a game cannot be played the other way. Missouri is coming off a defensive battle against Georgia last weekend as it lost 9-6 to the Bulldogs which was its seventh straight under to start the season. The offense has been inept the last two weeks as the Tigers have managed just nine points total but they will definitely improve upon that this week against Vanderbilt based on the bounce angle. The Commodores come in on a 5-0 under run in its lined games as they have also had trouble on the offensive side of things. They will face a defense that is ranked eighth in the nation in total defense but for both sides, this is the lowest over/under so far this year. The under run is surprising for the Commodores as they lead the SEC with an average of 39.7 pass attempts per game. Even in the Commodores two victories, they averaged 30 passing attempts. Overall, Vanderbilt is averaging 399 ypg, much better than last season's 283.3 ypg. Here, we play the over involving road teams where the total is 42 or less after allowing three points or less in the first half last game going up against an opponent after scoring 14 points or less last game. This situation is 26-5 (83.9 percent) to the over the last 10 seasons. 10* Over (333) Missouri Tigers/(334) Vanderbilt Commodores

Tennessee is coming off a win in its last two against Georgia which happened to be two weeks ago so the extra time heading into this game is a big benefit. That was the first conference win of the season for the Volunteers after losing two straight games and at 3-3, this is arguably the best three-loss team in the nation. One loss came to Oklahoma in overtime after blowing a 17-0 lead while the other two losses against Arkansas and Florida by a combined five points after blowing double-digit leads in each of those games as well. Tennessee has lost eight straight meetings against Alabama but this is probably the best team since the 2007 squad that started the skid. The Crimson Tide lost against Mississippi, which is becoming even more shocking with the recent struggles of the Rebels, but the Tide have since buckled up and produced four straight double-digit victories. They are a game back in the SEC West and it happens to be against LSU which Alabama travels to in its next game. All in all, this is a bad spot for Alabama from a situational standpoint and while many will deny this is a winnable game for Tennessee, it would not surprise me for Tennessee to keep this one closer than most expect. Tennessee falls into a great contrarian rushing situation as we play against home favorites of 10.5 to 21 points with a defense that is allowing 2.75 or fewer rushing ypc, after allowing 40 or less rushing yards last game. This situation is 53-24 ATS (68.8 percent) since 1992. Also, Tennessee is 16-3 ATS in its last 19 road games after two straight games where it forced one or fewer turnovers. 10* (349) Tennessee Volunteers

Duke ranks second nationally in passing defense with 131.2 ypg, second in scoring defense with 9.3 ppg and fourth in total defense with 252.8 ypg, a stark contrast to the offensive-minded teams that have come to define the Blue Devils' recent resurgence under coach David Cutcliffe. Of the five FBS teams the Blue Devils have played, four - Army, Northwestern, Boston College and Tulane - are ranked 109th nationally or worse in yards per game. The only Duke opponent in the top half of FBS offenses is Georgia Tech, which barely made the cut at 58th. Virginia has played much of the season with backup quarterback Brenden Motley though that will change this week with Michael Brewer back in the starting lineup. Brewer gives the team a more stable option with his experience and despite playing with a backup as well as facing three teams that currently reside in the top 20 nationally in total defense, the Hokies are averaging 5.49 yppl which is half a yard better than last season. Virginia Tech was long known for its defense but that is not the case this season as it is a pretty average unit. The Blue Devils have been average on that side of the ball as well but facing Northwestern and Boston College, ranked 18th and 1st in the country respectively, has had a lot to do with that. Duke is 7-0 to the under while Virginia Tech has gone under in three straight games and that puts this total into another great contrarian situation that we can take advantage of with a low posted total. 10* Over (361) Duke Blue Devils/(362) Virginia Tech Hokies

We played against Central Michigan last week and it was certainly a poor call as the Chippewas rolled Buffalo at home but we are going against them this week on the road. One of the big reasons is the fact that Central Michigan is a perfect 7-0 ATS on the season, the best record against the number in the country. That is factoring into this line as the Chippewas come in as a large road chalk, the first time they have been favored on the road all season after being underdogs in all three previous games, all resulting in losses. Ball St. meanwhile has lost four straight games which is also playing into the line. The Cardinals opened the conference season with a win against Eastern Michigan but then lost to Toledo and Northern Illinois, arguably the two best teams in the MAC before getting upset last week at home against Georgia St. which was clearly a letdown spot after those two conference losses. Toledo is a ranked team, coming in at No. 19 this week, yet the Rockets were favored by fewer points than what the Chippewas are favored by on this same field. Ball St. falls into a great contrarian situation based on recent results as we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after beating the spread by more than 21 points in their previous game going up against an opponent after being beaten by the spread by more than 21 points in their previous game. This situation is 23-6 ATS (79.3 percent) since 1992. Additionally, the Cardinals are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games following a double-digit loss at home. 10* (318) Ball St. Cardinals

We played on Syracuse and Virginia to go under the total last Saturday and it was one of the worst total beats you will see. It went over the total by 31 points which may not seem like a bad beat at all but consider the fact that after scoreless first quarter, 35 fourth quarter points were scored including two defensive touchdowns. Then the game was sent into overtime on a field goal as time expired and then 34 overtime points were scored. That made it six straight games that have gone over the total to start the season after closing last season with six straight unders. Pittsburgh meanwhile is coming off a high scoring game against Georgia Tech which is also playing into this total. The number this week is slightly higher than it was last week despite playing a Syracuse offense that is ranked 110th in the nation in total offense compared to the Yellow Jackets being ranked 61st in total offense. Georgia Tech does have a better defense but not much as it is ranked 52nd compared to 69th for Syracuse. This has been a very low scoring series of late, averaging 32.3 ppg with all three of those staying well below the total. Going back, Syracuse is 25-11 to the under in its last 36 games after allowing 37 points or more last game and 17-6 to the under in its last 23 games after three or more consecutive straight up losses. Meanwhile, the under is 5-2 in the Panthers last seven games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. 10* Under (325) Pittsburgh Panthers/(326) Syracuse Orange

Memphis came away with a big win for us last Saturday as it defeated Mississippi by 13 points as a 10-point home underdog and now the Tigers have caught the attention of many, including the linesmakers. They are in a very rare situation where they go from a double-digit home underdog to a double-digit road favorite which is a massive swing from one game to the next in a span of a week. While Memphis may have dominated the scoreboard against the Rebels, they only outgained them by 11 total yards but it was a signature win that spells letdown this week. Tulsa lost at East Carolina last week by 13 points and it was the first score of the game that was the difference. The Pirates picked off a pass and returned it 100 yards for a touchdown which was a 14-point swing. The Golden Hurricane won the yardage battle by 81 yards so overall, we are seeing this line move being based on the scoreboard and not what was inside the game book. the Golden Hurricane are lead by an offense that ranks sixth nationally in total yards. Quarterback Dane Evans has thrown for more than 2,000 yards, and wide receiver Josh Atkinson is working on a five game streak with more than 100 yards receiving while Keyarris Garrett is the leading receiver with 698 yards. Either or both could be in for a big game against the Tigers, who let Mississippi star receiver Laquon Treadwell run rampant on Saturday. Treadwell had his best game of the season against Memphis, catching a career-high 14 passes for 144 yards and a touchdown. 10* (312) Tulsa Golden Hurricane

We won with the Appalachian St./ULM over last Saturday as the Mountaineers offense paced the way to put up 59 points and a big victory to move to 2-0 in the Sun Belt Conference. They are a game out of first place, trailing Arkansas St. which won on Tuesday night, and Georgia Southern which makes this a big matchup for both sides. The Eagles are riding a five-game winning streak and have been dominant with their wins as they have outscored the opponents by 26, 35, 24, 20 and 30 points. Both teams feature two great rushing offenses as the Eagles are averaging 7.1 ypc and the Mountaineers are averaging 6.0 ypc so there certainly will be movement. Appalachian St. has the edge on the other side as it is holding opponents to just 3.2 ypc on defense and playing at home can make a bigger difference also. This is a revenge game for Appalachian St. but not just because it lost by 20 points last season. The Mountaineers have had this game circled for over a year as in last season's 34-14 victory in Statesboro, the Eagles gashed the Mountaineers for 408 yards on 60 rushes. More importantly, it was a night that has stuck with a few of the Mountaineers thanks to what they perceived as vulgar chants and things being thrown by Eagles fans. They also fall into a great situation where we play on home teams after two straight wins by 21 or more points going up against an opponent after scoring 42 points or more in two straight games. This situation is 25-5 ATS (83.3 percent) since 1992. 10* (306) Appalachian St. Mountaineers

This line has risen a significant amount since opening at -6.5 and we will take advantage of the value. These teams are fairly equal as far as power rankings and both came into the season in position to contend in the Sun Belt Conference. Arkansas St. is coming off a win last Tuesday at South Alabama and it was a fairly fortunate win as it was an 18-point victory thanks to 29 fourth quarter points that included two defensive touchdowns. That moved the Cajuns to 2-0 in the conference and while playing with double revenge, this defense is bad enough to keep the backdoor open. Louisiana won its conference opener for the eighth straight season and it has the edge of having a few extra days off to recover from some injuries. The Cajuns are averaging 433.6 ypg on the season which is 44th in the country so the offense matches up well with this defense. The Cajuns are 4-0 in Tuesday night games since 2013, including a 3-0 mark on the road. They fall into a great situation where we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are coming off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival going up against an opponent after a road game where both teams scored 31 points or more. This situation is 42-14 ATS (75 percent) since 1992. Additionally, Louisiana is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 road games after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous game while going 12-3 ATS in its last 15 road games following a win against the spread. Meanwhile, Arkansas St. is 7-25 ATS in its last 32 games against teams averaging 4.75 or more rushing ypc. 10* (301) Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns

Georgia last lost two straight games to fall from out of playoff consideration and this feels like the game that the offense is going to explode. The Bulldogs are averaging 37.3 ppg on the season while putting up 451.3 ypg and with the absence of running back Nick Chubb, we should see the Bulldogs air the ball out more. Georgia now is seeing its smallest total of the season and one that is close to two touchdowns lower than that of last week. Part of that is due to the opponent as Missouri has struggled on offense in half of its games but the potential is there against a defense that has been gashed the last two games. The total is low as expected because of the inconsistent offense with another reason being the Tigers going under the total in all six of their games this season. Quarterback Maty Mauk will not be in uniform against and freshman Drew Lock will be making his third start which is typically the time quarterbacks start becoming more comfortable. His first start came against South Carolina and Georgia's defense is more in line with the Gamecocks defense as opposed to Florida who he faced last week and struggled. The Gatos defense is ranked 16th in the nation in total defense. Missouri falls into a great situation for a high scoring game as we play the over involving teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 coming off three or more consecutive unders, and averaging between 16.5 and 21 ppg going up against teams averaging 21 and 28 ppg. This situation is 32-10 (76.2 percent) to the over since 1992. 10* Over (165) Missouri Tigers/(166) Georgia Bulldogs

Appalachian St. is coming off its first conference win over Georgia St. as it hung 37 points on the Panthers as the offense remains explosive. The Mountaineers played a game against Clemson and its 13th ranked defense so take that game out and they are averaging 41.5 ppg and surpassing that number this week should be no issue. They face a ULM defense that is allowing 412.8 ypg and 34 ppg, 87th and 101st in the nation respectively so there will once again be little resistance. Surprisingly, Appalachian St. has stayed under the total in all five of its games but the matchups have had a lot to do with that and this one screams over. The Warhawks offense has been pretty solid against like opposition as take out games against Georgia and Alabama and they are averaging 34 ppg in their other three games. They will be facing a tough defense so it is not going to be easy for ULM but playing at home certainly helps and we are not asking them to even come close to that 34 ppg average as most of the points will be coming from the other side. The Warhawks have gone under the total in three of their last four which is also because of matchups. This week, the Mountaineers are seeing their lowest posted total and ULM is seeing its second lowest. The over is 28-13-1 in the Warhawks last 42 games against teams with a winning record including a 4-0 over run in their four home games vs. a team with a winning road record. This one should fly over the number. 10* Over (185) Appalachian St. Mountaineers/(186) ULM Warhawks

Both Oklahoma and Kansas St. are coming off disappointing losses last weekend but the Sooners are the team that will be able to recover based on how they happened last Saturday and what is at stake on both sides. The Sooners obviously did not take Texas serious as they fell behind early and could not recover in time. Kansas St. meanwhile blew an 18-point lead and after falling behind in the fourth quarter, the Wildcats tied the game only to allow a huge touchdown with a minute remain to fall to the Horned Frogs. That is a very difficult loss to recover from and I don't think they will recover. Even the Sooners have a loss, they are far from done as they still get to play No. 2 Baylor, No. 3 TCU and unbeaten No. 16 Oklahoma State. They are using Ohio St.'s example from last season as a rallying cry and they have not lost back-to-back regular-season games since 1999, a span of 34 straight wins following losses. There is additional motivation here as Oklahoma lost at home to Kansas St. by a point last season which was the fourth straight season the road team has won in this series and while we are not into road revenge that much, the recent history shows the home edge simply is not there. The Sooners have won 12 of their last 13 true road games and they are 16-5 ATS over their last 21 games after scoring 20 points or fewer last game. 10* (167) Oklahoma Sooners

Teams tend to have a bad beat or two per season but it has been ridiculous for Nebraska this year. The Huskers are 2-4 on the season with those four losses coming by a combined 11 points as they have lost all four games in the final seconds. This year's four losses have come on a Hail Mary by BYU with no time left, in overtime against Miami and with 10 seconds left against Illinois and 4 seconds left against Wisconsin. Turning all of those around is tough to comprehend but this teams is four plays away from being a perfect 6-0 and while losing this way is difficult, the confidence is there knowing how close they are. SMU in 2007 is the only FBS team besides Nebraska to lose four games in a season in the last 10 seconds or overtime, according to STATS records dating to 1996. The reality is that new coach Mike Riley's team must win four of its last six games just to become bowl eligible. Minnesota has been on the opposite end for the most part as three of its four wins have come by three points. The Gophers exploded for 41 points last week against Purdue but this offense is not very good and will not be as successful against the Huskers who are out for double-revenge following losses the last two years. Nebraska has covered nine of its last 11 road games and is 4-0 ATS in its last four games after allowing 450 or more yards while Minnesota is 2-5 ATS in its last seven games following a win. 10* (163) Nebraska Cornhuskers

We were on Michigan St. last weekend and lost as the Spartans won at Rutgers but were unable to cover the two-touchdown spread. People are getting very down on Michigan St. right now as it has yet to put together a complete game where it has dominated and no one is giving the Spartans a chance here as well. This line opened at -6.5 and has moved over a touchdown as of Tuesday afternoon and going back shows how much the public perception has shifted. When this line came out over the summer, the Spartans were a 4.5-point favorite so we are seeing close to a two-touchdown shift which is enormous. Of course, the way Michigan is playing has a lot to do with that as well. The Wolverines lost their season opener at Utah but have won five straight games since then, allowing a grand total of 14 points including posting a shutout in three straight games. This is no doubt impressive but the fact that Michigan St. has yet to lose makes this too big of an adjustment in my opinion. Despite winning the final two games by just 10 points combined, the Spartans outgained Purdue and Rutgers by a combined 245 yards so while the scoreboard isn't showing it, they are doing just fine. They have covered eight straight road games following two straight conference wins and they fall into a great situation where we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points that are allowing 125 or fewer rushing ypg, after outrushing opponent by 150 or more yards last game. This situation is 48-20 ATS (70.6 percent) over the last 5 seasons. 10* (173) Michigan St. Spartans

We have played against Old Dominion a couple times this season as it was routed by NC State and then got shut out against Appalachian St. 49-0. Following a loss by 20 points against Marshall, the Monarchs fell to 2-3 while failing to cover any of those games. That is a streak we like to play against as the law of averages is on our side and with that record, the value of the line is clearly on our side. Old Dominion would not be this small of a favorite has it covered at least two of their games but that is the case here. Making this an even better spot is the fact that the Monarchs are coming off a bye week and in desperate need of a win. They lost record breaking quarterback Taylor Heinicke which was a big part of playing against them early on but Shuler Bentley has a great opportunity here against a poor defense with two weeks to prepare. Charlotte opened its first season the FBS with a pair of wins but one of those came against an FCS team and the other came against 1-4 Georgia St. The 49ers have since dropped their last three games, getting outscored by a combined 127-24 and while they are also coming off a bye week, the talent is not in place to succeed just yet. The Monarchs were bowl eligible last season in their first year in FBS but were not invited to go so they are playing with a chip on their shoulders and a blowout win is what they need to make a second half run against some very weak teams. 10* (188) Old Dominion Monarchs

Virginia opened the season with an under against UCLA with the closing total being 53. Since then, the Cavaliers have had no games go under the total and all of those closed in the 40's. On the other side, Syracuse is a perfect 5-0 to the over on the season and like Virginia, all of those totals closed in the 40's. Because of the high scoring games (Syracuse is averaging 55.6 ppg and Virginia is averaging 58 ppg) the total this week is the highest both teams have seen. Granted the total is still below what each team is averaging in its games but because the number is way above what they are accustomed with, the value is big. The defenses of both sides are not great but the offenses do not have much going for them and will still find it tough going. Syracuse is 108th in total offense while Virginia is 99th in total offense and typically when a poor offense goes up against a poor defense, the latter succeeds more the majority of the time. Syracuse offensive coordinator Tim Lester has struggled to establish the run early in the last couple games, but don't expect him to abandon course with freshman Eric Dungey at quarterback. Running back Jordan Fredericks should test a Virginia defense that's allowed more than 4.5 ypc this season and of course, more running the better as it eats more clock. Syracuse is 31-12 to the under in its last 43 games after being outgained by 17 or more total yards in its previous game while Virginia has gone 8-1-1 to the under in its last 10 ACC games. 10* Under (137) Syracuse Orange/(138) Virginia Cavaliers

We lost by playing against Central Michigan last week as we were on Western Michigan but got backdoored as the Broncos allowed 20 fourth quarter points. We are going against the Chippewas again this week as they go from close to a touchdown underdog to over a touchdown favorite and the quality of opposition is not that much different while home field advantage is not that big in the MAC. Central Michigan is overpriced here for the simple fact that it has covered every game this season, going a perfect 6-0 ATS and we are bucking that trend once again. Buffalo has dropped two straight games to fall to 2-3 on the season and it has been a strange season for the Bulls. They outgained Nevada by 108 yards yet lost at home no thanks to a -3 turnover margin while the other two losses against Penn St. and Bowling Green, two very quality teams, they were outgained by just 90 total yards combined. Buffalo has covered all three games as an underdog which I think is being overlooked here. They are outscoring opponents by close to a touchdown and outgaining opponents overall which certainly makes them a strong underdog. Buffalo is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games against teams averaging 120 or fewer ypg rushing while going 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games against teams with a losing record. We have a rushing dog that can win this one outright. 10* (123) Buffalo Bulls

We won with Tulsa last week as it snapped a two-game skid against ULM and while it takes up a step in class here, this is close to a 21-point line swing and that is simply too big of a move involving a quality team like the Golden Hurricane. As mentioned last week, they lost to Oklahoma by just 14 points as a 31.5-point underdog and they were in that game for the most part as they were down by just seven points late in the third quarter before the Sooners ran off two straight touchdowns. The other loss came by 14 points against 5-0 and No. 24 Houston. Overall, Tulsa is ranked seventh in the nation in total offense, averaging 568 ypg. East Carolina lost a ton of talent from last season but it is holding its own as it won against Virginia Tech and had narrow losses against Florida and BYU but now the Pirates are favored by the most they have been favored by this season against a team from the FBS. They have covered three straight but two of those were as double-digit underdogs and the other as a less than touchdown favorite. Tulsa has covered five of its last six road games while East Carolina is 0-9 ATS in its last nine games with a total great than 70 showing it struggles against potent offenses while going 0-6 ATS in its last six games after gaining 475 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games. 10* (181) Tulsa Golden Hurricane

This is a great spot for Memphis. One of the best scenarios is playing a home underdog than can actually move the ball and score as the Tigers can certainly do that. It means they can keep up throughout the game and if need be, the back door is always wide open. Memphis is off to a 5-0 start and while this is the toughest opponent to dated, the line is reflecting that and to be honest, this is far from the same SEC we are accustomed to. The Tigers are ranked eighth in the country in total offense while ranked fourth in scoring offense, averaging 47.8 ppg. The defense is banged up and not very good to begin with but the offense can make up for it. Mississippi is coming off a blowout win over New Mexico St. in its last game as it wasn't challenged at all and that can be good or bad and in this case, it could be a detriment. With a home game on deck against Texas A&M, the Rebels could easily be looking ahead to that game. Everyone will look at their win on the road at Alabama but that is game they were more jacked up for and you can also point to the blowout loss at Florida. We aren't comparing Memphis to those two SEC teams but this is a legitimately very good team, especially at home where it has won seven of its last eight. Memphis is coming off a bye which is a big edge as well. 10* (206) Memphis Tigers

Fresno St. is supposed to contend in the West Division of the MWC but it is off to a 0-3 start and time is running out. The good news is that the West Division is by far the weaker of the two divisions so all is not lost just yet. A loss here however and the Bulldogs are done so this is the biggest game of the season thus far. They have dropped their last five games and none have even been close so that is a big reason they are a home underdog here. Additionally, Fresno St. has failed to cover all five of these games but this is by far the most winnable of the bunch and is an underdog once again. UNLV is a rare road favorite despite being just one game better than the Bulldogs and while it has covered all three road games, the Rebels have been the underdog by at least a touchdown in all of those. UNLV is 3-8 straight up as a road favorite going all the way back to 2004 which shows not only lack of success but also lack of opportunity. The Bulldogs will be out for payback as well as they will be out to avenge a loss in Las Vegas last season in overtime, snapping a 10-game winning streak in this series. Fresno St. is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 home games after gaining 125 or fewer rushing yards in two straight games while under head coach Tim DeRuyter, the Bulldogs are 10-1 ATS against teams that are averaging 4.75 or more rushing ypc. Meanwhile, the Rebels are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 road games against teams with a losing home record. 10* (118) Fresno St. Bulldogs

Auburn snuck by San Jose St. in its last game to fall to 0-5 ATS on the season so the value continues to be there despite recent close calls. Going back, the Tigers have failed to cover their last 10 games which is pretty hard to do. The Tigers are coming off a bye week which came at a great time coming off a narrow win over a nonconference opponent and now getting back into SEC play. Quarterback Sean White was limited against the Spartans as he made only 10 passes but that part of the offenses wasn't needed. He has progressed well with learning the playbook during the bye week. Kentucky is coming off its bye also and the Wildcats are off to a solid 4-1 start but the wins have been pretty unimpressive. All four wins have come by eight points or less including an overtime win over Eastern Kentucky of the FCS in their last game. Kentucky has not played a difficult schedule either with Florida being the toughest of the bunch while Auburn has played the 15th toughest schedule in the nation. The Wildcats are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game and they fall into a negative situation where we play against home teams with a winning percentage between .600 and .800 where the line is +3 to -3 coming off a home win, playing a team with a winning record. This situation is 23-4 ATS (85.2 percent) over the last five seasons. Also, Auburn head coach Gus Malzahn is 7-0 ATS in his seven road games against teams allowing a completion percentage of 58 percent or higher. 10* (105) Auburn Tigers

Arkansas St. and South Alabama are both coming off season opening conference wins last weekend with the winner Tuesday moving into a first place tie with Georgia Southern in the Sun Belt Conference. The Red Wolves are winless on the road but those games came against Toledo and USC as this marks the first winnable game on the highway. Arkansas St. won the conference in 2012 and was picked along with Georgia Southern and Appalachian St. to contend this season. Red Wolves quarterback Fredi Knighten will return after missing the last three games and his return will be huge as he was sensational last season with over 3,00 yards passing and over 1,000 rushing, excluding sacks. South Alabama snuck by Troy, picked to finish 10th in the conference, for its first conference victory but not much is expected from the Jaguars after losing so much from last season. They returned just five starters from last season's 6-7 team and while they have three wins, none were against top caliber competition and they were blown out against upper class opposition. The big edge here is the balance of the Red Wolves as they average 193 ypg rushing, 202 ypg passing and 30.4 ppg. Last year's meeting in Jonesboro, Arkansas, was a blowout as Knighten accounted for 266 yards and three touchdowns rushing and passing in a 45-10 Arkansas St. win. While revenge will come into play, there is just not enough talent on the South Alabama side to counter. Going back, the Red Wolves are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games against team with a winning record while the Jaguars are 0-6 ATS in their last six games following a win. 10* (101) Arkansas St. Red Wolves

One look at Wyoming's 0-5 record and the first thought that comes to mind is that this team is horrible. Certainly 0-5 is not good but of the five winless teams remaining in the nation, the Cowboys are the best of the bunch. Typically, that is still nothing to be prod of but considering Wyoming has been outgained by just 10.8 ypg through those first five games shows it has been a lot more competitive than what the scores are indicating. This is a great example of how lines are inflated because of records. This number coincides with what the Cowboys were getting at Appalachian St. and Washington St., two teams that are right around the same power number as Wyoming, and the Cowboys covered those two games by over a touchdown each. Air Force is not the same Air Force we are accustomed to as the quarterback play has been extremely weak which was expected coming into the season and now starter Nate Romine is out for the season. Air Force emerged from a pair of road games at undefeated Michigan State and Navy with little to show other than a long list of injuries and questions about its offense. The passing game has been nonexistent early in games, accounting for just 16 combined yards in the first half of the past three games. Winning here may not seem possible with the size of this spread but this is a big rivalry that can even things up in some cases. Even with that, the Cowboys are better than what the record shows as mentioned earlier and going back, they are 4-1 ATS over their last five road games and going back further, they are 22-9 ATS in their last 31 games as road underdogs. Air Force is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 games after a road loss by 21 or more points and 3-17 ATS in its last 20 home games after scoring three points or less in the first half last game. 10* (345) Wyoming Cowboys

Last week was an almost unprecedented week where the under came in 45 of 57 lined games in college football and that has affected the totals for many of this week's games, especially for those teams that are on under runs. We will be using both of these to our advantage for the three games we are playing the over in. This is a situation where both teams have seen a huge majority of their games go under the number. Colorado is coming off its third straight under and fourth in fifth games as 65 points were scored against Oregon but that was still not enough to push it over. In five games, the posted closing total wax in the 60's while the other was at 56.5 so the Buffaloes are facing their lowest total of the season. Colorado is ranked 38th in total offense so it has the ability to move the ball. Arizona St. meanwhile has seen all five of its games stay below the number which is also part of the reason of the huge overadjustment this week. Both offense and defense have been up and down and overall, the Sun Devils are ranked 44th in total offense and 60th in total defense. All five of the Sun Devils games have had closing totals in the 60's so there is huge value in their side of this total as well. While the teams are a combined 9-1 to the under, that would go to 5-5 had the total be what they are using this week. Colorado is 11-3 to the over in its last 14 games when playing against a team with a winning record and 21-5 to the over in its last 26 games after scoring 20 points or more in the first half in two straight games while Arizona St. is 10-2 to the over in its last 12 games after failing to cover the spread in two out of its last three games. Over (369) Colorado Buffaloes/(370) Arizona St. Sun Devils

Michigan St. is coming off another lethargic effort as snuck past Purdue last week. The Spartans jumped out to a 21-0 halftime lead but the Boilermakers would not go away as they pulled to within three points and got the ball to midfield before turning it over on down and ending the game. It was a scare for sure and with Michigan on deck, Michigan St. can ill afford another effort like that heading into its first really big game of the season. Michigan St. has not completely dominated a game this year even though it is more than capable of doing so and thus, the Spartans are off to a 0-5 ATS start. Because of that, we go a pretty decent number to open and it has come down a significant amount. Rutgers is a mess. The Scarlet Knights are coming off a win to improve to 2-2 but that was against lowly Kansas while the other win came against Norfolk of the FCS. They were blown out by Penn St. and lost at home against Washington St. but it is internally even worse off. The Scarlet Knights surprised many with an 8-5 record in their first season in the Big Ten. But the campaign lacked a signature win, as the Knights were dominated by the best teams in the conference. One of those losses was a 44-3 beatdown against Michigan St. and while Rutgers is using that as motivation for the rematch, the talent gap is simply too big. Head coach Kyle Flood will be serving the final game of his three-game suspension and while not a huge deal, it is still a disadvantage. The Spartans fall into a solid situation as we play against underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points with a completion percentage of 62 percent or better, after allowing eight or more passing ypa last game. This situation is 112-58 ATS (65.9 percent) since 1992. 10* (401) Michigan St. Spartans

Nevada is coming off a disappointing loss last week against rival UNLV as it outgained the Rebels but failed on fourth down conversions in its final two drives to lose by six points. The Wolf Pack are now 2-3 on the season and that loss was the first in conference play so a win here is imperative as to not fall to 0-2 in the Mountain West Conference. Junior quarterback Tyler Stewart went 20-of-44 for 202 yards passing with one touchdown against UNLV. Stewart set career-high marks in completions (20), passing attempts (44) and rushing yards (61) while his 202 passing yards ranked tied for second in his career. That is a big performance as his production is big to back up the 40th best rushing attack in the country. New Mexico defeated rival New Mexico St. last time out which isn't saying much as the Aggies have lost 14 straight games. The Lobos still only outgained the Aggies by just 30 yards total. They are now 3-2 overall including 2-2 against FBS teams and they have been outgained by a total of 343 yards in those four games. New Mexico is a dismal 9-46 in Mountain West Conference action the last seven years and this is the best five-game start since 2007 so that is really saying something about the state of this program. The Lobos in fact have a very solid running game as well but if you can stop New Mexico on first and second down, you will slow the offense down as the passing game still lags. New Mexico ranks 119th in passing efficiency as quarterback Lamar Jordan hits on just 50.9 percent of his passes for fewer than 85 yards per game. Nevada is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following a loss while going 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games following an ATS loss. Meanwhile the Lobos are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a win. 10* (406) Nevada Wolf Pack

Neither ULM nor Tulsa are off to great starts and both come in riding two-game losing streaks. Tulsa looks to be the team that has the best chance to break the skid as it remains home looking to bounce back from an embarrassing home loss against Houston. Prior to that, the Golden Hurricane lost to Oklahoma by just 14 points as a 31.5-point underdog and they were in that game for the most part as they were down by just seven points late in the third quarter before the Sooners ran off two straight touchdowns. The Cougars and Sooners are a combined 8-0. Tulsa should not have to worry about any sort of that happening here. The Warhawks are 1-3 with the lone victory coming against Nichols St. of the FCS and all of the losses coming by at least 20 points while getting outgained by 184 yards, 211 yards and 224 yards. Granted two of those losses came against Alabama and Georgia but a bad home loss against Georgia Southern wasn't called for. ULM has one of the better defenses in the Sun Belt Conference but we have yet to see it and in order for this team to turn things around, the defense needs to step up as the offense is on rough shape. The Warhawks lost their starting quarterback and top rusher and while they have gotten decent production from quarterback Garrett Smith, his six interception are a concern and there is no running game to speak of. On the other side, the Warhawks currently rank 121st in the nation with 248.5 rushing ypg allowed and while the passing defense has been solid, it has not needed to be tested. Overall, Tulsa is ranked seventh in the nation in total offense, averaging 569.3 ypg and should have no issues in keeping it going here. 10* (366) Tulsa Golden Hurricane

What has happened with Central Florida? The Knights came into the season as contenders in the AAC East but they are off to a 0-5 start including a loss in Tulane last week. UCF has been dominated on the road in all three games, losing by 14, 17 and 24 points but things have been better at home even though both games resulted in losses. The Knights have dropped both home games by a single point each so those could have gone either way. The thing is though this is the second AAC game of the season so there is plenty of time to turn things around. Connecticut lost at BYU last Friday as the offense once again was unable to get much done. The Huskies snuck by Villanova of the FCS and then snuck by a poor Army team by five points in each game. You can argue they played a solid game against Missouri in a 9-6 loss but the jury is still out on the Tigers which has been pretty up and down this season. They key here is the Huskies offense as they are averaging just 15.8 ppg after averaging 21 ppg last season and over they are ranked 122nd in total offense and 125th in scoring offense. Granted, the UCF offense is not much better but it has played a much tougher schedule and we always like the desperate team in these situations. Connecticut is 1-10 over its last 11 road games which is not a good record in what essentially a pickem game. The Huskies are 0-6 ATS in their last six games against teams being outscored by 10 or more ppg and 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games after one or more consecutive straight up losses. Meanwhile, UCF is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 game off games consecutive road losses. UCF closed last regular season 9-1 in its last 10 games with the lone loss coming in Connecticut so revenge is in play as well. 10* (382) Central Florida Knights

Last week was an almost unprecedented week where the under came in 45 of 57 lined games in college football and that has affected the totals for many of this week's games, especially for those teams that are on under runs. We will be using both of these to our advantage for the three games we are playing the over in. This is the biggest contrarian situation of all three and we are catching an unheard of number in the college game. Michigan and Northwestern bring in two of the best defenses in the country as the Wolverines are ranked 2nd in total defense and 2nd in scoring defense while the Wildcats are ranked 5th in total defense and 1st in scoring defense. Those are obviously some incredible rankings but we have to take a look at the opposition. Of the nine FBS teams that they have faced, the total offense rankings are 112th, 64th, 63rd, 31st, 114th, 81st, 87th, 111th and 76th. So the schedules have been very favorable. Because of the stout defenses, both teams have stayed below the number in all five of their games and because of that, we are getting great value on this adjusted total. Rarely do you see a college game with an over/under in the mid-30's but that is the case here. While the defenses could still control the game, it will not take a lot for this one to go over. Michigan has a great situation on its side to go high as we play the over involving teams that are averaging 4.8 or more ypc going up against a team averaging between 3.5 to 4.3 ypc, after allowing 1.5 or less ypc last game. This situation is 36-9 (80 percent) to the over the last five seasons. Additionally, Northwestern is 17-6 to the over in its last 23 games against teams who allow 14 or fewer ppg. Over (373) Northwestern Wildcats/(374) Michigan Wolverines

Last week was an almost unprecedented week where the under came in 45 of 57 lined games in college football and that has affected the totals for many of this week's games, especially for those teams that are on under runs. We will be using both of these to our advantage for the three games we are playing the over in. Toledo is expected to win the MAC West behind an offense that averaged close to 500 ypg and 36.6 ppg a season ago. While only five starters are back, the quarterback, leading rusher and leading receiver are three of those. The Rockets are averaging 26.8 ppg which is a significant decline but they have scored 30 or more points two times. Because of the offense not hitting its potential and a defense that has overachieved, Toledo has gone under the total in all four games. Kent St. meanwhile is coming off a low scoring game against Miami Ohio which was its second under in four games. The total against the RedHawks closed at 43 and we are seeing a very light increase here despite playing an offense that is significantly better. As for Toledo, this is the lowest over/under it has seen this season by over 10 points so it is a massive overadjustment. It should be noted that Kent St.'s two best defensive efforts came against teams ranked 105th and 112th in total offense and 121st and 126th in scoring offense. The over is 5-1 in the Golden Flashes last six games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game while the over is 20-7 in Toledo's last 27 home games when playing against a team with a losing record and the over is 15-3 in its last 18 home games after outgaining opponent by 125 or more total yards in its previous game. Over (333) Kent St. Golden Flashes/(334) Toledo Rockets

Western Michigan returns home following a loss at Ohio St. in its most recent game two weeks ago. The Broncos are 1-1 at home with a win over Murray St. and a very impressive effort against Michigan St. in the lone setback. They have been outgained in all three games against FBS opposition but this is by far a big step down in class and that is no disrespect to Central Michigan but the Broncos has an extremely tough nonconference slate. Central Michigan is coming off an upset at home last week against Northern Illinois as it won by 10 points despite getting outgained by 41 total yard. The Chippewas can thank the Huskies for coughing up the ball four times which was the difference in the game. Central Michigan is 0-2 on the road with an overtime loss at Syracuse and a 20-point loss at Michigan St. The value here is based on the fact the Chippewas have covered all five of their games thus far so the bounce angle comes into play. The turnover aspect for Central Michigan last week was fortunate but Western Michigan is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games after committing one of fewer turnovers last games while going 10-2 ATS in it last 12 games following a win against the number. The defensive effort wasn't there against the Buckeyes but that was not a good matchup and going back, the Broncos are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game. While the road team has won the last three meetings, it is important to note the home team was not favored but the chalk has covered five straight games in this series. The Cannon Trophy and the Michigan MAC trophy are at stake Saturday, but this game could also go a long way in deciding the MAC West Division and Western Michigan has a big advantage with having had an extra week to prepare for this one. 10* (342) Western Michigan Broncos

With the win last week against North Texas, Southern Mississippi matched its win total from all of last season and one more victory will match the win total from the previous three seasons combined. This is no doubt a team on the rise after a miserable run however, the linesmakers have now caught up after being behind for a bit. The Golden Eagles are a perfect 5-0 ATS and that is keeping this line down and it has actually gone down from the opening which is giving us huge value under a key number. Marshall is 4-1 to start the season which may surprise some considering it lost record breaking quarterback Rakeem Cato and leading rusher Devon Johnson. But there is an abundance of talent on this squad and the lone loss came against a similar 4-1 team on the road in Ohio. The Thundering Herd are coming off a win over Old Dominion, a team that has failed to cover a game this season so now they go against a team in just the opposite scenario and getting a huge value number because of it. Southern Mississippi defeated Texas St. on the road two games back and allowed 50 points in doing so which is not a good sign as the Bobcats have scored a grand total of 30 points in their other two games against FBS competition. That win was by six points against a team not even on the same level as Marshall. Marshall is 17-1 over its last 18 home games while going 11-6-1 ATS in them and the majority of those have been double-digit spreads. Marshall has dominated this series the last three years with wins by an average of 43 ppg and while Southern Mississippi is an improved team, have they improved enough to make up that much ground? No way. 10* (308) Marshall Thundering Herd

Both Washington and USC are coming off an under in their last games which is providing some value heading into this one. The Huskies have gone under the total in three of four games with the lone game going over by just 2.5 points while USC is 2-2 with totals with one of those games going over by just 1.5 points. The USC defense is not as good as it may look as far as points allowed, which sits at 17.5 ppg. The Trojans are allowing 410 ypg on the season which is 90th in the country and that includes holding Idaho to 311 total yards. In the last game against Arizona St., USC allowed just 14 points but gave up 454 total yards and was the beneficiary of four Sun Devils turnovers. Washington meanwhile is allowing just 15.8 ppg and 321 ypg which is 17th and 29th in the nation but those numbers and rankings are skewed because of a game against Sacramento St. of the FCS where they pitched a shutout and gave up 212 total yards. Take that game out of the equation and the numbers are much more average. Washington allowed 481 yards to California in its last game and while that offense is great, the Trojans offense is even better. The Trojans fall into a solid situation favoring a high scoring game as we play the over involving teams off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival going up against opponent off an upset loss as a home favorite. This situation is 63-28 (69.2 percent) over the last five seasons. Additionally, Washington is 18-5 to the over in its last 23 road games teams averaging 37 or more ppg while USC is 12-2 to the over in its last 14 home games after scoring 31 points or more in four straight games. 10* Over (305) Washington Huskies/(306)USC Trojans

Arizona St. could not capitalize on USC coming off a bad loss against Stanford two weeks ago as it fell behind 35-0 at halftime and could not recover. The Sun Devils were ready to pull within two touchdowns but fumbled the ball and USC returned it 94 yards for a touchdown and then fumbled the kickoff and the Trojans pushed in another touchdown. Arizona St. was outgained by just one yard but allowed 28 points off turnovers. They are now 2-2 and have yet to cover but are getting a big number this week. UCLA rolled over Arizona by 26 points but like Arizona St., the Wildcats were killed by turnovers as they were outgained by just 29 yards and the fact quarterback Anu Solomon had to leave the game with an injury did not help matters. The Bruins are 4-0 and now ranked No. 7 in the AP Poll but have yet to cover at home. Freshman quarterback Josh Rosen is a great talent and while he has not lost games, he has been pretty average and he is a mistake or two away sending the Bruins to a couple losses. UCLA scored 21 points off turnovers last week as it was able to build a 42-14 halftime lead and was never threatened after that. I'm not much into road revenge but the sun Devils will be out to avenge a 62-17 loss from last season. The Sun Devils are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game while the Bruins are 1-4 ATS in their last five games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. 10* (151) Arizona St. Sun Devils

This is the ultimate contrarian play based on numbers against the spread but because of that, North Texas is getting a great number. The Mean Green are off to a 0-3 start and has not looked good in doing so but the potential is there to turn things around and match their four wins from last season. Granted, they have been a horrible road team since the start of last season but the number they are getting does not match the level of competition in this matchup. Southern Mississippi is 2-2 and is just one win away from matching its win total from all of last season. The Golden Eagles have defeated Austin Peay from the FCS and Texas St. which has lost all three FBS games with the defense allowing 59, 56 and 59 points so that was certainly another unimpressive win. On top of that, the Golden Eagles allowed 50 points and Texas St. has scored just 30 points combined in its other two FBS games. Southern Mississippi has not seen a spread very often and have been favored by double-digits only once against another FBS team since 2012 and that resulted in an outright loss against Florida International. Going back to that 2012 season, they are 0-5-1 ATS as a home favorite against teams from the FBS. The Mean Green are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game while the Golden Eagles are 2-14-1 ATS in their last 17 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. 10* (197) North Texas Mean Green

The Tigers have burned us the last two weeks with losses against LSU and Mississippi St. to drop to 0-2 in the SEC but we are going back to the well with Auburn one more time. The season is close to completely slipping away and this is a massive game to turn things around as they need a dominant effort before heading into their bye week. The Tigers outgained the Bulldogs last week with excellent balance as Sean White was solid in his first start at quarterback but was unable to convert critical third down conversions. That won't happen here. This is a horrible time for San Jose St. to face Auburn as they are catching the Tigers at a bad time. The Spartans have played well at home with wins over New Hampshire and Fresno St. but they have been equally as bad on the road. They have lost to Air Force and Oregon St. while getting outgained by 162 and 185 yards in those games respectively. Auburn has yet to cover a game this season which is keeping this line within reason as well as the fact the tigers have not covered in nine straight games going back to last season. The Spartans have been very poor in this spot as they have gone 10 straight games without covering when getting points. These teams met here just over a year ago with Auburn rolling by 46 points as a 33-point favorite, outgaining San Jose St. 493-319, so the line differential from then until now is huge. 10* (180) Auburn Tigers

Rice got absolutely blasted last week as it lost against Baylor 70-17 while getting outgained by 547 total yards but of course, the Bears are one of the top teams in the country. The Owls are not as bad as that loss looks but because it just happened last week, the prior work is already being ignored. They outgained all three previous opponents including a game at Texas even though a lot of those yards were in garbage time. The point is gamblers have very short term memories and seeing a blowout loss is lining them up on the other side which inflated the line. Western Kentucky had its first three games decided by three points or less but finally was able to blowout an inferior opponent as it defeated Miami Ohio last week by 42 points as a 20-point home favorite. Now the Hilltoppers hit the road for the second time this season and are a surprising large favorite. They were road favorites only once last season and lost outright at UAB. Rice is a perfect 12-0 ATS in its last 12 home games against teams averaging 275 or more passing ypg and falls into a great situation where we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are allowing 6.4 or more yppl, after gaining 3.75 or less yppl in their previous game. This situation is 33-10 ATS (76.7 percent) since 1992. 10* (146) Rice Owls

The Bobcats won for us last weekend but did lose the game outright against Minnesota. While many will back Ohio again sensing a bounceback, we are going against that here as the Bobcats are overpriced. They have covered all four of their games thus far and that is a big component when making future lines and say the Bobcats were 2-2 against the number, they very well would not be favored here. Akron is 2-2 but it is trending the right way as after blowout losses against Oklahoma and Pittsburgh, the Zips own two blowout wins the last two weeks, including an impressive win at Louisiana last weekend. That moved them to 4-34 over their last 38 road games and that victory could be huge going forward for possible bowl implications should it come down to that. This is a very improved team and despite a 5-7 record last season, it was favored in all MAC home games so being a home underdog is a gift. Ohio is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 road games after getting outgained by 125 or more total yards last game while the Zips have thrived on momentum, going 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games following a win of more than 20 points. This is a big game for Akron with four of the next five games taking place on the road so this one needs to be taken. 10* (122) Akron Zips

Maryland got crushed last Saturday at West Virginia as the Terrapins went down by 39 points while getting outgained by 275 total yards. A new season starts this weekend however as conference play gets underway and this has all of a sudden turned into a big game for them and head coach Randy Edsall who could be leaning toward the hot seat after two consecutive 7-6 seasons that ended in blowout losses in mediocre bowls. The Terrapins are at Ohio St. next week so this is a big one for sure. Michigan lost its opener at Utah but has string together three straight wins but all of those came at home. The Wolverines have allowed just 14 points in the three victories but because of the lopsided victories, they are now favored on the road by double-digits for the first time since 2013, a game they won by just three points. They are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as road favorites. Jim Harbaugh has done a great job as head coach but let's not forget these are not his players so getting into the heart of the Big Ten schedule could cause some issues. Michigan is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games following a home win while Maryland is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games following a road loss by 28 or more points. Additionally, Edsall is 11-2 ATS in his 13 games after scoring nine points or less. 10* (206) Maryland Terrapins

Missouri is coming off a surprising loss last week at Kentucky after starting the season 3-0 but unimpressively. The Tigers defeated SE Missouri St. of the FCS so that was not a big deal but a seven-point win over Arkansas St. and a three-point win over Connecticut were very concerning leading up to last Saturday. The loss to the Wildcats has the fan base concerned following back-to-back awesome seasons but despite the early struggles, this team is much better that what they have shown. South Carolina was able to shake off a slow start against UCF last week and like Missouri, it has been a slow start for the Gamecocks. They also lost to Kentucky while getting blown out by Georgia and barely sneaking by North Carolina. The difference here though is we knew there would be issues coming into the season and we are seeing those. Lorenzo Nunez took over as starting quarterback and while he played pretty solid, making his first road start will be a challenge to try and repeat that success. Missouri has been a single digit home favorite only twice over the last two plus years and the Tigers were able to cover both of those. Missouri is 6-0 ATS in its last six games after allowing seven points or less in the first half in two straight games while going 16-5 ATS in its last 21 home games off a road loss. *Please note that quarterback Maty Mauk is suspended for this game but it is still a play as he has been below average anyway.* 10* (188) Missouri Tigers

We are basing this on contrarian theory as we have seen some low scoring games between these two teams. Connecticut has seen all four of its games go under the total as the offense has really struggled to move the ball and to score as the Huskies are ranked 120th in total offense and 125th in scoring offense. Something says they get it going this week however as BYU has allowed at least 24 points in each game. The Cougars have gone under in each of their last two games as the offense is coming off a pair of bad efforts. They will be facing another tough defense but returning home will make a big difference as they tallied 35 points in their lone home game this season against Boise St. and the Broncos have a better defense than Connecticut. BYU is ranked 107th in total offense as the running game has held it back but it is tied for first in the nation in redzone offense. These teams played last season and while that game stayed below the total, it closed over a touchdown higher than what the number is this year. The Cougars have not seen a total this low since 2012 which represents a big overreaction to what has transpired early in the season. 10* Over (109) Connecticut Huskies/(110) BYU Cougars

We played on Cincinnati last week as it lost but was able to cover in its shootout with Memphis. That was the fourth straight game to go over the total for the Bearcats and because of that, we are seeing a ridiculously high number this week. Miami meanwhile has gone over the total in two of three games including the last two with the lone game staying under being a game against FCS Bethune Cookman. This is the highest total the Hurricanes have seen this season so we are definitely getting value going the other way. Both offenses have been leading the way but the defenses should be able to have success here. Cincinnati had to tangle with one of the best offenses in the nation last week and it takes a step down here. Miami meanwhile is ranked 27th in total defense while sitting 13th in passing efficiency defense. The Bearcats will be without Gunner Kiel at quarterback after suffering a scary head injury last week and while backup Hayden Moore was sensational, there will be a lot more resistance here. Miami 6-0 to the under in its last six games after gaining 6.25 or more yppl in three consecutive games over the last three seasons while Cincinnati is 19-8 to the under in its last 27 games after scoring 42 points or more last game. 10* Under (103) Miami Hurricanes/(104) Cincinnati Bearcats

We lost with Auburn last week in a horrible call as they were annihilated at LSU by 24 points while getting outgained by 225 total yards. The Tigers return home winless against the spread and we are now getting a very favorable number in a game that they need to win big to turn the season around before it completely implodes. Mississippi St. is coming off an impressive win but it was against an unimpressive Northwestern St. team. Looking two games back, the Bulldogs made things interesting against LSU as they came back late before just falling short. They opened the season on the road against Southern Mississippi and while they won by 18 points, they outgained the Golden Eagles by just 29 yards. They failed to cover and going back, have covered just once in their last five road games. Auburn meanwhile is 22-9 ATS in its last 31 home games against teams who give up 17 or fewer ppg, 17-5 ATS in its last 22 games off a loss by 21 points or more to a conference rival and 10-2 ATS in its last 12 home games after being outrushed by 125 or more yards last game. The Tigers are making a switch at quarterback as Jeremy Johnson has been benched and they are going with redshirt freshman Sean White which can only help matters at this point. 10* (374) Auburn Tigers

Mississippi and Alabama played one of the more entertaining games last Saturday and the Rebels were able to hold off a late charge from the Tide to win by six points. The Rebels were outgained however and were very fortunate on a 66-yard touchdown pass that really changed the flow of the game. Mississippi moved from No. 15 to No. 3 in the AP Poll which is a huge jump and all of this does is make them a public darling, thus an inflation of the line. Vanderbilt picked up its first win of the season over Austin Peay last week and while that can be considered unimpressive, looking back at its two losses tells us more. The Commodores lost to a very solid Western Kentucky team despite winning the yardage battle by 147 total yards. Next up, they faced Georgia and while losing by 17 points, they were outgained by just 22 yards against the Bulldogs. One reason for fading the Rebels here is the letdown factor and while it can be argued that they defeated Texas A&M last season after taking down Alabama, they were underdogs against the Aggies and now they are a massive chalk. Additionally, they have Florida on deck. Vanderbilt falls into a great situation where we play on road underdogs that average between 4.8 to 5.6 yppl going up against teams allowing between 4.2 to 4.8 yppl, after allowing 225 or less total yards in their previous game. This situation is 28-4 ATS (87.5 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (343) Vanderbilt Commodores

California got away with one last week as it defeated Texas on a shanked extra point with just over a minute remaining to move to 3-0 on the season. The Golden Bears were actually outgained by 102 total yards last week against the Longhorns as the defense allowed a whopping 650 yards after Texas gained 440 yards in its first two games combined. That shows how bad the California defense really is and we expect it to get lit up again. Washington is off to a 2-1 start including an impressive win over Utah St. last week. The Huskies offense has been average but facing California will be a quick cure. The defense is the story however as Washington leads the Pac 12 in total defense while being ranked 13th in the country. The Golden Bears have a very potent offense so it will not be an easy task but at this point of the season, I do not think California is a better team than Washington but the linesmakers are saying that the Golden Bears are more than a touchdown better on a neutral field. Here, we play against road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points in a game involving two teams that are outgaining opponents by 100 or more ypg, after gaining 6.25 or more yppl in their previous game. This situation is 46-17 ATS (73 percent) since 1992. California is 4-21 ATS in its last 25 games as a road favorite of seven points or less. 10* (404) Washington Huskies

Illinois has not had a winning season since 2011 but that should change in 2015. The Illini have started out 2-0 the last three year before losing game three only to bounce back and win game four the last two seasons and will see a repeat of that here. They were very impressive with wins over Kent St. and Western Illinois, albeit those teams are not good, but those victories came by a combined 96-3. Illinois did lose by 34 points last week at North Carolina but it was outgained by just 72 total yards as six drives inside North Carolina territory gained only 14 points. Middle Tennessee comes in 2-1 with two blowout wins over weak opposition as well. The lone loss came on the road at Alabama and it was able to cover because of a late garbage touchdown. The Blue Raiders were outgained by 257 yards and while we aren't comparing Illinois to Alabama, playing a team from a power conference will be another challenge and we are laying a short price going against them. They are 2-21 in their last 23 games against power teams (and BYU) since 2016. The Blue Raiders are 0-6 ATS in their last six games off a home win against a conference rival while Illinois is 6-0 ATS in its last six home games after a game where they committed one or less turnovers. 10* (348) Illinois Fighting Illini

Tennessee has put together two high scoring games but the last one can be discounted against Western Carolina of the FCS. The first came against Bowling Green but the Falcons have no defense to speak of and the Volunteers will be facing its toughest defensive test of the season. In their game against Oklahoma, they were shutout in the second half and 12 points in overtime skewed the final score that still remained under the total. Florida has also been involved in two high scoring games but is coming off a defensive game against Kentucky last week. The Gators will also be facing its toughest defense so far so do not expect results like the ones from their first two games. Both teams fall into great low scoring situations. For Tennessee, we play the under involving teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 in a game involving two teams outscoring opponents by 10 or more ppg, after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game. This situation is 58-25 (70 percent) to the under the last 10 seasons. For Florida, we play the under involving teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 in a game involving two teams outscoring opponents by 10 or more ppg, after allowing three points or less in the first half last game. This situation is 42-15 (73.7 percent) to the under the last 10 seasons. 10* Under (357) Tennessee Volunteers/(358) Florida Gators

We won with NC State last week against Old Dominion and we will be playing Appalachian St. for many of the same reasons. The Mountaineers won their final six games last season and are preseason favorites to win the Sun Belt Conference this season. After non being eligible last year in their first year. They are loaded with 10 returning starters on both sides of the ball and while they were blown out against Clemson in their last game, four turnovers did them in as they were outgained by just 94 yards. That was two weeks ago as well so they have had a long time to stew about that defeat. Old Dominion surpassed expectations last year when it went 6-6 in its first year at the FBS level. The Monarchs won their first two games as it defeated Eastern Michigan despite getting outgained and then beat a weak Norfolk St. team. While there are 15 starters back, the big loss was at quarterback with Taylor Heinicke as his 3,476 yards and 30 touchdowns are gone. He was the 2012 Walter Payton Award winner for the best player in the FCS. Old Dominion is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games after allowing 37 points or more last game and 0-6 ATS in its last six games after one or more consecutive straight up losses. Meanwhile, the Mountaineers are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games following a loss of more than 20 points. 10* (389) Appalachian St. Mountaineers

Penn St. came into the season with high expectations but a loss against Temple was not the way to get started. The Nittany Lions bounced back with wins over Buffalo and Rutgers but the offense continues to struggle as they are averaging just 21.7 ppg through three games. Quarterback Christian Hackenberg came in with even higher expectations as a Heisman hopeful and he has been struggling. He has thrown for 372 yards on just 49.3 percent completions while throwing just one touchdown and two interceptions. He has been sacked 10 times and overall Penn St. is ranked 115th out of 128 teams in total offense. The issue comes down to the offensive line which remains a mess. San Diego St. is not having a good year as it has also been struggling on offense and underachieving as well. The Aztecs lost a tough one at home last week against South Alabama as they allowed a 46-yard field goal at the end of regulation and ended up losing in overtime. They hit the road again and while playing on the east coast is not a good situation for west coast teams, the fact that this game is at 3:30 instead of noon is a big advantage. Additionally, the line is overinflated for a team to try and cover by nearly as many points as it is averaging. As for the angles that back the 100% Perfect Power Play, Penn St. is 0-6 ATS in its last six games coming off a home win by 17 points or more while going 0-12 ATS in its last 12 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in its previous game. 10* (327) San Diego St. Aztecs

The Bobcats won for us two weeks ago against Marshall and they are off to a 3-0 start both straight up and against the number after another win last week. They are once again a very solid team as they have 18 starters back on a team that has been riddled with injuries the last couple years but still have not had a losing season since 2008. They have the opportunity to contend once again in the MAC East and while conference play begins next week, they will be out for a quality win this week and we are getting an overabundance of points on top of it. Minnesota is a good team as it played TCU very tough in its opener but struggled to win against Colorado St. and really struggled last week against Kent St. at home as it defeated the Golden Flashes 10-7. The Gophers offense has been very inconsistent and this will not be an easy game to get it rolling. Ohio has eight starters back on a defense that improved from 2013 and should be much better this season which we are in fact witnessing. Minnesota has really struggled against non-conference teams the last couple years as it is 2-7 in its last nine non-conference games while being unable to come close to dominating the stats. Meanwhile, the Bobcats have covered five straight non-conference games. 10* (359) Ohio Bobcats

Massachusetts won for us last week as it dropped a tough two-point game against Temple to fall to 0-2 on the season. While winning this game is unlikely, the Minutemen could not be in a better spot this week. Massachusetts has had a rough start to its FBS career as it is 5-32 but showed drastic improvements last season. The Minutemen lost five games by a touchdown or less and they bring back 19 starters from last season and are the most experienced team in the nation. While Massachusetts will be amped up to be playing here, Notre Dame could probably care less about this game. Coming off a big upset win over Georgia Tech and with Clemson on deck, the injury riddled Fighting Irish want nothing more than to shorted this came and come away without any further injuries. It is no secret that Notre Dame is a huge public betting favorite which means linesmakers have to inflate their lines in games like these so it comes as no surprise that the Fighting Irish are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 games as favorites between 21.5 and 31 points. And talk about a letdown, they are 0-7 ATS when laying double-digits following an outright win as a dog. Massachusetts is on the opposite side of things as it gets bigger lines than it probably should and despite a 3-11 record since the start of last season, it is 9-5 against the number. 10* (365) Massachusetts Minutemen

We are catching a lower than expected number here with Navy and I think it should be able to name the score. The Midshipmen are 2-0 and while a win over Colgate was far from impressive, a 24-point win over a very solid East Carolina team last was impressive. That was their first ever win as a member of the AAC after being an independent for 134 years so it was certainly a special victory. Don't expect a letdown here though as now they will be out for their first ever road conference win and quite honestly, the makeup of this team typically does not allow a letdown. They lead the nation in rushing with 393 ypg and while Connecticut has been decent against the run, they have yet to come close to facing a rushing offense like this. The Huskies snuck by Villanova of the FCS and hen snuck by a poor Army team by five points in each game. You can argue they played a solid game last week against Missouri in a 9-6 loss but the jury is still out on the Tigers which struggled in their first two games against weaker opposition than Connecticut. They key here is the Huskies offense as they are averaging just 16 ppg after averaging 21 ppg last season so they will not be able to keep pace with Navy. The Midshipmen are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games after a two-game homestand while Connecticut is 5-17-1 ATS in its last 23 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game. 10* (323) Navy Midshipmen

We played against Stanford last week and we got burned as the Cardinal came out and defeated USC outright as a 10-point underdog but now the line shifts more than 25 points which is a massive move. While that was a great win, it spells letdown going forward and playing on the road in that spot makes it even tougher. Additionally, they have a game against Arizona on deck which makes it even tougher. It is hard to forget their only road game which came at Northwestern and how bad they were dominated. Playing on national TV on a Thursday night is not ideal coming off the victory over the Trojans. Oregon St. is 2-1 and while the wins were unimpressive over mediocre opposition, those games were important for this very experienced team. This is especially true for freshman quarterback Seth Collins who got his ears wet and looked pretty solid in doing so. A big factor here is that Gary Anderson is the coach that took over for Mike Riley and he is very solid and has been in many a big game so he knows how to get his team ready. While we expect Stanford quarterback Kevin Hogan to play, he is listed as questionable and may not be close to 100 percent which would be a big blow after him playing so well last week. Here, we play on home underdogs of 14.5 or more points in conference games, returning eight or more offensive starters going up against an opponent returning five or fewer defensive starters. This situation is 48-18 ATS (72.7 percent) since 1992. 10* (308) Oregon St. Beavers

This will be a very unpopular pick this week based on the results we have seen but that is what gets us the value. Cincinnati is off to a 2-1 start but has not looked good in doing so as the loss came to Temple, which albeit is having a solid season, and one win came against Miami Ohio by just four points. The Bearcats are 0-3 against the number as they were unable to cover against Alabama A&M as a 46-point favorite so that can be tossed out. The thing is that they have outgained all three opponents and despite losing to Temple, they outgained the Owls by 261 yards. Five turnovers were the difference there. Memphis is 3-0 as it survived a scare last week against Bowling Green winning 44-41 thanks to scoring the final 10 points of the game. Blowouts over Missouri St. and Kansas were far from impressive. Cincinnati quarterback Gunner Kiel suffered a concussion last week in the third quarter and was listed as questionable yesterday, then went to doubtful and has since gone back to questionable. The line has moved four points because of this and we made the play thinking he would not play and if he does, it only benefits us that much more. Memphis is 5-18 ATS in its last 23 games after scoring 42 or more points and the Bearcats will be out for payback after losing by 27 points at home last season. 10* (303) Cincinnati Bearcats

Toledo provided one of the biggest upsets in Week Two as it went to Fayetteville and defeated Arkansas 16-12 as a 22.5-point underdog. Everyone will remember that score but they do not know the full story as Toledo was outgained by 197 total yards while Arkansas doubled the Rockets in first downs 30-15. The problem was that the Razorbacks constantly stepped on their own feet as they made it inside the Toledo redzone in each of their last four drives but came away with just three points. The Rockets dodged a bullet and now they are paying the price for the outright win as his line is inflated because of it. The Rockets actually had a game in Week One as it hosted Stony Brook but it was postponed due to bad weather after one half of play. They led by only nine points at the break so that was a pretty unimpressive start. Iowa St. lost at home against rival Iowa as the Hawkeyes were playing with revenge from last year's loss. Coming off a big rivalry game can provide a letdown but usually only if our team won so I am not worried at all about any sort of letdown. Toledo is playing with revenge here following a seven-point loss last season but being favored by this much over a power conference team is just too much. The Cyclones have covered four straight against the MAC while the Rockets are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. 10* (167) Iowa St. Cyclones

We won with Stanford last week as it bounced back from its upset loss at Northwestern with a blowout win over Central Florida, outgaining the Knights by 310 yards. While it was a dominating performance, it has to be noted that Central Florida is not a good team with just nine starters back and playing on the west coast after an embarrassing loss put it in a horrible spot. Now the spot becomes horrible for Stanford as it hits the road again in its Pac 12 opener against sixth ranked USC. The Trojans are 2-0 with ho-hum wins over Arkansas St. and Idaho so while they were not tested, we already know what this team is capable of. The sanctions have been lifted and the Trojans finally have depth again. We saw how bad Stanford got beat in the trenches against Northwestern and USC has one of the best offensive lines in the country. The loss of defensive tackle Harrison Phillips is a big setback for Stanford in this matchup as he is out for the season with a torn ACL. On the other side, Stanford is averaging just 3.2 ypg and that puts them in a negative situation explained later. Last season USC opened the season with a blowout win and had Stanford in its second game and won that on the road and while the last five meetings have all been close, this is the one that breaks that string. We play against teams that are averaging between 3.0 to 3.5 ypc going up against a team allowing between 3.0 to 3.5 ypc, in conference games. This situation is 46-14 ATS (76.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (196) USC Trojans

California came through for us in a big way last week against San Diego St. as it spotted the Aztecs a 7-0 lead before scoring the final 35 points and easily covering. The Golden Bears were favored by 12.5 points which would have made them less of a favorite at San Diego St. than they are against Texas and that simply does not make sense. California is an up and coming team with high expectations and a Heisman Trophy caliber quarterback but I do not think they are ready to be laying points on the road quite yet. They have not been in this role since 2012 and this is not the time or place to be doing it. Texas has looked shaky to start the season as it was blown out by Notre Dame and then had a tougher than expected game against Rice last week. That game needs to be examined further however as while Texas only won by 14 points, it was up by 28 in the fourth quarter where the Owls scored their garbage touchdowns and outgained Texas 175-16. It is often when fourth quarter anomalies take place that can mess up what really happened. The Longhorns could use a big effort heading into conference play and this is the perfect opportunity to do so. The defense has not looked like the defense it is supposed to be and this will no doubt be a tough yet attainable challenge. California is 5-14 ATS in its last 19 games after gaining 450 or more yards last game. 10* (184) Texas Longhorns

Arkansas is coming off a baffling loss last week at home against Toledo so you have to feel for Texas Tech and the wrath that is about to be put upon them. The Razorbacks had chances to win last week but could not get the job done as they ended up inside the Toledo redzone on their final four drives but came away with only three points total. They outgained the Rockets by 197 total yards and that is most important to us in a follow up game as it shows who was the better team despite the loss and the defeat actually helps us going forward for motivational purposes. Arkansas is a sleeper pick by some in the SEC even with a brutal schedule as it brings back 15 starters. Texas Tech is off to a 2-0 start with wins over San Houston St. and UTEP. While the latter was a blowout, the Red Raiders were actually outgained by San Houston St. The Bearkats are one of the best FCS teams out there but if Texas Tech could not outgain them at home, what are they going to do against an SEC team on the road? Arkansas blasted the Red Raiders last season in Lubbock so there is no reason for it to be any different at home. Here, we play on favorites of 10.5 to 21 points that averaged 31 or more ppg last season, in a non-conference game between two teams from major conferences. This situation is 37-10 ATS (78.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (170) Arkansas Razorbacks

This is a lot of points to be laying on the road but I like the situation and the matchup on top of that. NC State was one of the most improved teams in the country last season as it went from three wins in 2013 to eight wins in 2014. While that may signal a reversal the other way this season, I don't see it that way at all. The Wolfpack are coming off two wins over inferior competition but not much is changing here or next week for that matter when they face South Alabama so there is no chance of a lookahead. NC State snapped a 0-9 ATS skid as a road favorite by blasting USF last season and with 15 starters back, they know how to win on the road. Old Dominion surpassed expectations last year when it went 6-6 in its first year at the FBS level. The Monarchs are already off to a 2-0 start as it defeated Eastern Michigan despite getting outgained and then beat a weak Norfolk St. team last week. While there are 15 starters back, the big loss was at quarterback with Taylor Heinicke as his 3,476 yards and 30 touchdowns are gone. He was the 2012 Walter Payton Award winner for the best player in the FCS so replacing him will be a challenge especially trying to stay up with an offense like that of NC State. The Wolfpack will also get a boost with the return of last season's leading rusher Shadrach Thornton who missed the last two games while serving a suspension. 10* (129) NC State Wolfpack

Pretty much everyone saw, or at least heard, about Auburn nearly losing to Jacksonville St. as a 40-point favorite last Saturday so the masses will be lining up behind LSU this week as gamblers have very short memories. The Tigers also struggled to get past Louisville it their opener but we still feel this is a better team than they are being made out to be as it is a complete rarity to find a team that is undefeated and drop 12 spots in the polls. Clearly, Auburn was not focused on the Gamecocks but more so on LSU this week and it almost bit them. They have no where to go but up and that is what we are expecting here as this team is loaded. LSU burned us last week as it led Mississippi St. 21-6 only to let the Bulldogs come roaring back but they were fortunate that they missed a two-point conversion as well as a possible game winning field goal. LSU moved up only one spot in the polls since the preseason as it is currently No. 14 so while there is not much of a difference between these two teams, LSU's home field advantage is not worth seven points which is basically what this line is telling us. Since this line came out over the summer, it has gone up four points which is all public reactions. Here, we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in the first month of the season, bowl team from prior season who lost their last two games. This situation is 46-16 ATS (74.2 percent) since 1992. 10* (149) Auburn Tigers

As often stated, teams are not as good as they may have looked a week ago and vice versa. That can certainly be said for Temple which is off to a 2-0 start but it is extremely skewed. Looking at just the scores will show nothing more than possible flaws so digging deeper is imperative. In this case, the Owls defeated Penn St. and to their credit, they did dominate as a weak Nittany Lions offensive line allowed 10 sacks. They then upset Cincinnati on the road last week by eight points as a six-point dog. If only it were that simple. Temple was outgained by 261 total yards against the Bearcats but was able to force five turnovers which was the ultimate difference. Massachusetts has had a rough start to its FBS career as it is 5-31 but showed drastic improvements last season. The Minutemen lost five games by a touchdown or less and they bring back 19 starters from last season and are the most experienced team in the nation. They did fall short in their season opener at Colorado but are back home with this game being played at Gillette Stadium which is a big boost from their 17,000 on-campus stadium. This is the last shot for Massachusetts for a while as it leaves the MAC after this season and goes independent. The 2016 schedule is absolutely brutal so the time to win is now and while there have not been many wins, they are capable even though the linesmakers won't have you believe so. 10* (112) Massachusetts Minutemen

Typically we stay away from road favorites the majority of the time but this situation calls for playing the road chalk. Florida St. is off to a 2-0 start with expected victories over Texas St. and South Florida so while the opponents have not given it a test, they Seminoles are not taking a huge step up in class here. Many will remember the close call Florida St. had against Boston College at home last season where it took a last second field goal to win. That is ideal for us here. The Seminoles are not going to be taking the Eagles lightly and this is another revamped Boston College team. The Eagles are also 2-0 but have played no one as they have faced two teams from the FCS and actually struggled in one of those. They defeated Maine by just 18 points and last week they rolled over Howard, which is a step above a high school team. The east schedule has skewed the numbers as Boston College leads the country in total defense but we know that is a farce. The Eagles have only 10 returning starters and while the defense will be good, they are in for a test here. Offensively, Florida St. has just four starters back but as usual, it is loaded at the key positions. Boston College lost its leading passer and rusher in quarterback Tyler Murphy while also losing two of its top three receivers. This one could be real ugly. 10* (105) Florida St. Seminoles

Overreacting to the first couple weeks of the season is a common mistake for bettors and of course being the contrarian type, we love the fact that the lines have to be adjusted because of it. Louisville is off to a 0-2 start including a home loss last week to Houston as a 13.5-point favorite. The Cardinals lost their opener in Auburn by seven points which looked good at the time but based on the Tigers near loss against FCS Jacksonville St., we aren't sure what to believe. Still, Louisville is better than its 0-2 record and we will see a focused bunch that knows a 0-3 start could spell disaster for the rest of the season. Clemson is coming off a couple blowout wins over some mediocre opposition and now comes its first real test. Going back to last season, the Tigers have won five straight games by double-digits but none of those have been true road games and this is not an ideal spot as the Tigers went 0-3 ATS last season as road chalk. The offensive line has just one starter back from last season while only three starters are back on a defense that led the nation last season in total defense. Additionally, we play against road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points in the first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with three or more straight wins. This situation is 48-15 ATS (76.2 percent) since 1992. 10* (104) Louisville Cardinals

Stanford got manhandled pretty good last week at Northwestern as it was outgained by 90 total yards and scored just six points. The Cardinal have been the team over the past few years that wins the battle of the trenches but that was far from the case against the Wildcats as they were outgained on the ground 225-85 but I am not concerned about that at all. Northwestern ran the ball twice as much (54-27) and the ypc differential was off by just one yard. The fact that the Cardinal kicked off at 9:00 AM their time didn't help matters. If anything, Stanford comes home to take their frustrations out on an inferior team and that is what we have here. UCF is coming off an embarrassing loss as well as it fell to Florida International by a point but making it worse was that it was at home. Now the Knights have to fly across the country to face an upset Stanford team. They only have nine starters back and while they are expected to contend in the weak AAC, facing a tough PAC 10 team is no easy task. The Cardinal has been a great bounceback team under head coach David Shaw as they are 6-0 ATS in their last six games following an upset loss as a favorite while going 4-0 ATS in their last four games after gaining fewer than 225 total yards. 10* (400) Stanford Cardinal

Mississippi St. opened 2015 with a victory over Southern Mississippi by 18 points but the game was a lot closer than that as the Bulldogs won the yardage battle by just 29 total yards as one of their scores was set up by a blocked punt and they also had a kickoff return for a touchdown. A win is a win of course but it is skewed which could be playing with this line. Mississippi St. contended last year in the SEC West but that seems unlikely this season considering they are bringing back just seven starters. LSU should have a game and a win under its belt but its game with McNeese St. was postponed last week after just 11 plays due to inclement weather. That could be a good thing here however as there was no film for Mississippi St. to look at to prepare for this one. The Tigers have 15 starters back, the most since 2005, including nine on offense that regressed slightly from its 2013 numbers so the unit should be a lot stronger this season. This is not the time of year the Bulldogs want to face an experienced LSU team as they schedulemakers did them no favors. The Tigers have not forgotten last year's upset at home to Mississippi St. so revenge comes into play. LSU is 9-2 ATS under head coach Les Miles as a road favorite of a touchdown or less. 10* (323) LSU Tigers

We played against Nebraska last week and while the cover was a done deal, the way it lost outright was shocking and it spoiled the coaching debut of Mike Riley. Teams can either let that bother them the following week or use it as motivation and we should see the latter here. The Huskers take a big step down in class this week and South Alabama certainly catches them at the wrong time. The Jaguars won their season opener against Gardner Webb from the FCS and it was a pretty unimpressive win. They won by 10 and while they won the yardage battle by 99 yards, their four touchdowns came on plays of 49, 50, 56 and 92 yards and that is not going to happen against Nebraska. South Alabama had a very solid season in 2014 as it went to its first ever bowl game but after getting 15 starters back last year, they have just five starters back this season and going into a hornets nest in the first road game will be a challenge for the new guys. The Jaguars do not have the talent or depth to keep up as I expect Nebraska to score at will behind Tommy Armstrong Jr. who had a very solid game last week. Backing home teams coming off a home loss can be a difficult wager at times but not when the disparity is like this. 10* (390) Nebraska Cornhuskers

This is the first matchup of the season between two top ten teams and it has the makings of a great one. I do not think it is going to be close as some may think however as Michigan St. has the potential to move up the rankings even more with a quality win. We played against the Spartans last week and they were able to win on the road at Western Michigan but failed to cover the number. It was a possible lookahead to this one as the Spartans will be out for revenge following last year's 19-point loss in Eugene. They were only outgained by 25 total yards and actually led late in the third quarter before getting outscored to end the game. Oregon cruised over Eastern Washington last week but came away with a lot of questions, especially on defense. The Ducks allowed 42 points and 549 yards at home against an FCS team and while the Eagles are no slouch, Michigan St. is a different beast altogether. Oregon has just six starters back on each side of the ball and while talented, I think the Ducks are overrated where they are ranked and that certainly skews the public perception. This is a team that could struggle early in the season and they are fortunate that most of the tough games don't come until late in the season. That is with the exception of this one. 10* (392) Michigan St. Spartans

Losing on Purdue was a kick in the teeth last week as Marshall was outgained by the Boilermakers by 57 total yards but it used two interception returns for touchdowns to pull off the frontdoor cover. We are going against the Thundering Herd as they come in favored for the simple reason that they beat a team from the Big Ten even though they were outplayed. Ohio won its season opener at Idaho and while it wasn't overly dominating, winning the first game of the season on the road is always big. The Bobcats have 18 starters back on a team that has been riddled with injuries the last couple years but still have not had a losing season since 2008. They have the opportunity to contend once again in the MAC East and the home opener will be energetic for more than one reason. Ohio will be out for some payback as it lost in Huntington by 30 points as the defense was gashed for 705 yards by the Marshall offense. As mentioned last week, the Thundering Herd are rebuilding and the offense put up only 397 yards at home last week and now they hit the road to face the best defense in the MAC behind Northern Illinois on paper at least early in the season. They are projected to have the best linebacking corps and second best secondary and will hold their own here. 10* (330) Ohio Bobcats

We are getting great line value here based on what the public saw last week. Western Michigan played Michigan St. pretty tough, losing by just 13 points and getting outgained by just 69 total yards. The Broncos are expected to contend in the MAC East but they are a team to fade in situations like this. Georgia Southern meanwhile got hammered by West Virginia 44-0 as it was outgained by 320 total yards and because of that, the Eagles come in as the home underdog. This is the typical spot where the public goes against these teams but Georgia Southern is far from as bad as it may have looked last week. It is going to contend in the Sun Belt Conference after going 8-0 last season but it was unable to go to a bowl game as it was ineligible so there is plenty of motivation to get the wins it needs to get and that includes this one. The Eagles have 13 starters back and is tough to prepare for because of the option offense behind the starting quarterback and top four rushers all back. Here, we play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in the first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with 4 or more wins in last 5 games, with an experienced quarterback returning as starter. This situation is 26-6 ATS (81.2 percent) since 1992. 10* (310) Georgia Southern Eagles

This number has jumped considerably since it opened but that is not going to deter us as California is back from the dead. After one victory in 2013, the Golden Bears had five wins last season and have 17 starters back this season, the most in the entire PAC 12. They opened this season with a bludgeoning of Grambling 73-14 as the offense put up 656 total yards, the sixth highest total from last week. Obviously the opposing defense will be tougher this week but I'm not quite sold on the Aztecs. They finished 22nd in total defense last season but the schedule they played was not a tough one at all and this will be the toughest offense they have seen. San Diego St. managed only 305 total yards on offense last week against San Diego from the FCS as the quarterback play from Max Smith was horrid. On the flip side, the Golden Bears possess the possible top rated quarterback in the upcoming draft in Jared Goff should he leave after his junior year. Here, we play on home teams that averaged 450 or more total ypg with an experienced quarterback returning as starter, in the first month of the season. This situation is 92-49 ATS (65.2 percent) over the last five seasons. California has not been great in the role of home favorites the last few years but this is the best California team over this stretch. 10* (358) California Golden Bears

You have to commend head coach Jerry Kill and what he has done at Minnesota since coming over in 2011. The Gophers have put up 8-5 records the last two seasons while going to a bowl game the last three seasons even though they lost all of those. Minnesota opened the season with TCU last week and stayed relatively competitive as a late touchdown may have skewed the final score some. The Gophers were outgained by 108 total yards which is certainly respectable but they comer in here favored because of the narrow six-point loss and the fact that Colorado St. has to replace not only a head coach but also an All American quarterback as well as some other key players. But they have 15 starters back and showed they can be plenty explosive on offense still as they hung 65 points on Savannah St. behind a strong performance from new starting quarterback Nick Stevens. Sure playing an FCS team will give you numbers like that but that was an important game as teams with new starting quarterbacks needs those to gain confidence and not be thrown into the fire right away. New head coach Mike Bobo was the Georgia offensive coordinator the last eight years so he knows what he is doing. Plain and simple, we play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that had a winning record last season, in non-conference games. This situation is 30-8 ATS (78.9 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (344) Colorado St. Rams

This is a big game for Western Kentucky. While the win over Vanderbilt was big, the Hilltoppers need to prove it was no fluke and show they have the ability to keep momentum going similar to the end of last season. It was an ugly win as they were outgained by 147 total yards but the defense came through when needed while the offense could get nothing going against an underrated Commodores defense. Western Kentucky is very solid on offense despite last week as it has seven starters back including quarterback, two top receivers and two top running backs on an offense that averaged 44.4 ppg. Louisiana Tech blew away Southern in a glorified scrimmage last week behind the strong play of Florida transfer quarterback Jeff Driskel. He should have more success than he did at Florida but when he was bad, he was really bad. The defense should be the strength for the Bulldogs again but they will have their hands full here on the road after trouncing the Hilltoppers 59-10 last season and holding the powerful offense to 297 total yards. Revenge time. Here, we play on home teams that averaged 450 or more total ypg with an experienced quarterback returning as starter, in the first month of the season. This situation is 92-49 ATS (65.2 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (302) Western Kentucky Hilltoppers

Ohio St. is the preseason favorite to win a second straight National Championship and this team is loaded no doubt. Typically, we would take a look at the home underdog here because of the point value that usually comes with it but we are going the other way here. The Buckeyes will come in with some serious motivation after losing the season opener to the Hokies last season and to not lose again the rest of the season. Ohio State's offensive line got better throughout the course of last season. Against Virginia Tech, they had four new starters and Taylor Decker, who was playing at left tackle for the first time after starting on the right side the year before. The Buckeyes think they're better prepared for whatever the Hokies throw at them. The fact they have named the starter yet may concern some but it is a huge preparation disadvantage for the Hokies. Virginia Tech scored only 24 points before J.T. Barrett's last-minute pick-six last season and I don't see them scoring much here. There is always the talk of how good Virginia Tech is at home primetime games and while that may be the case, the Hokies have played the No. 1 team eight times in their history, and have lost all eight, seven by double figures. 10* (209) Ohio St. Buckeyes

We waited this one out hoping to get over the magic number in most spots and that is the case now. Marshall was one of the best stories last season as it started off 11-0 before losing its first game against Western Kentucky 67-66 in overtime. The Thundering Herd are far from the same team however as they lost superstar quarterback Rakeem Cato as well as linebacker Neville Hewitt, Conference USA's Player of the Year. Michael Birdsong takes over for Cato at quarterback and the transition could be difficult. He will ease into the system after his transfer from James Madison and this will be his first start in 21 months. Purdue has raved about its rigorous offseason workouts, with players becoming bigger and stronger. The Boilermakers have started a different quarterback in five straight season openers but the good news this year is after starting the final seven games last season, Austin Appleby maintained his spot atop the quarterback depth chart for this season. One big edge is in the trenches where Purdue brings back all five starters from its offensive line while Marshall lost 80 percent of its players along the defensive front. For the Boilermakers, Marshall has been the focus since offseason workouts started in January and they even had "Marshall Mondays" to ramp up the intensity and to keep the concentration on the season opener. Purdue has every chance to win this game outright but we will gladly grab the points. 10* (207) Purdue Boilermakers

Since playing in its first ever bowl game in 2005, Akron has suffered through nine straight losing seasons. Three consecutive 1-11 seasons from 2009-2011 were tough to swallow but last year arguably trumped those. A win in the season finale against then 1-9 Kent St. would have made the Zips bowl eligible but instead, they allowed a touchdown with a minute left to fall short of a possible postseason bowl berth. Even with a strong coaching staff and a solid amount of returning players, winning on the road has been a problem for Akron, going 3-33 on the highway since 2009. So it may seen surprising that we are backing the Zips here as I feel they are an underrated team heading into the season based on past failures which is being reflected in this line. Oklahoma came into last season with high expectations but finished 8-5 and while expectations are high once again, don't expect the Sooner to be clicking on all cylinders early on in the season. They have a new offensive coordinator which means new offensive schemes and they have to replace four players along the offensive line. Overall, it is a very young Oklahoma team as it has only 10 seniors in the two-deep while having six freshmen there. Since coming to Akron in 2012, head coach Terry Bowden has fared well against Power Five teams with good showings at Tennessee, at Michigan, at Penn St., and even a win at Pittsburgh last season. This is the biggest number that Akron has received since that Michigan game two years ago and we will take full advantage. 10* (183) Akron Zips

Kentucky was one of our under the radar teams last season as they were projected with a 3.5-preseason win total and went on to win five games which may not seem great but it was a big step for a team coming off consecutive two-win seasons. This is the year that the Wildcats are expected to make an even bigger move and their first bowl game since 2010. Most of the players on the team are head coach Mark Stoops recruits and have been here for the High-Intensity training under Eric Korem. The Wildcats return major contributors in just about every position on offense and defense highlighted by quarterback Patrick Towles who will take a major step forward this season with even more firepower on offense and a new offensive coordinator in Shannon Dawson. Lafayette went 9-4 last season for a fourth straight year but the Cajuns are in a major rebuild right now. They opened camp with redshirt junior Brooks Haack, redshirt junior Jalen Nixon (Carencro High) and redshirt freshman Jordan Davis all vying to succeed three-year starter Terrance Broadway at quarterback and a starter will not be named until right up to gameday most likely but it won't matter who starts as there will be struggles. There are new coaches on defense and the defensive line is thin which is a concern. They are expected to contend in the Sun Belt again but even facing a non-elite SEC team in the first game of the season in not ideal and the talent differential will show big time here. 10* (192) Kentucky Wildcats

This is a great matchup for the underdog Cougars which once again plays a daunting schedule. BYU went 8-5 last season but it could have been a lot better as it started 4-0 before losing starting quarterback Taysom Hill for the season because of a broken leg. He is back at full health and is a Heisman Trophy candidate, albeit a longshot and the offense will again revolve around his accurate arm and strong running game. The defense was up and down last season and didn't end particularly good by allowing 55 points against Memphis in the Miami Beach Bowl but improvements are expected with plenty of returning experience especially on the defensive line. Nebraska has a new head coach in Mike Riley who came over from Oregon St. in a somewhat surprising move. That means changes are in order and at the top of the list is he has installed a new pro style offense behind returning starting quarterback Tommy Armstrong Jr. He was not very efficient last season as he completed just 53 percent of his passes and he will be asked to throw more this season and that is not going to be a good thing early in the season. The offensive line brings back just one starter that played every game last season and the Cougars should have a big edge in the trenches. The attitude is much different for BYU as well. "Entering this season there is a different feel than previous seasons. It's … team unity and excitement," captain Bronson Kaufusi said. "Everyone is united with the same goal. Everybody wants the same thing. There is a different level of confidence." 10* (177) BYU Cougars

Quarterback is a huge area of concern for Northwestern as senior Zack Oliver, sophomore Matt Alviti and redshirt freshman Clayton Thorson competed closely throughout the spring but no one broke away. Thorson has been named the starter so we cannot expect to see a lot of explosiveness from the Wildcats. There are a ton of unknowns around him as well as the running backs and wide receivers lack experience. Stanford lost a lot on defense as well so that unit will be rather green but there is a lot of potential and when comparing the Northwestern offense and the Stanford defense, the latter has the biggest upside. Stanford ranked 3rd nationally last year in defensive rushing S&P+, and 4th in passing S&P+, while Northwestern ranked 111th out of 129 teams in offensive S&P+. The Wildcats defense was not very good last season as they were riddled with injuries but the players that were forced into action gained valuable experience. They are not going to be an elite unit but they will be good enough to keep Stanford from going off. The Cardinal offense brings back four of five starters from the offensive line and the running game will be at the forefront after last season, they failed to produce a 1,000-yard rusher for the first time since 2007. Under head coach David Shaw, Stanford is 18-4 to the under in its 22 road games while under head coach Pat Fitzgerald, Northwestern is 13-4 to the under in its 17 non-conference home games. 10* Under (171) Stanford Cardinal/(172) Northwestern Wildcats

This is the first time since 2008 that Michigan St. has opened the season with a true road game and for Western Michigan, this is the first time it has opened a season at home since 2004. That happened to be the last time the Broncos opened the season with a victory and while the outright win here is not likely, the number is certainly on our side here. Western Michigan won eight games last season after winning just once in 2013 so the turnaround under head coach P.J. Fleck, now in his third season, was huge. The Broncos have the ability to be even better this season as they bring back 16 starters overall while nine starters return from an offense that ranked second in the MAC in scoring at 33.8 ppg. Michigan St. comes into the season ranked fifth in the AP Preseason poll so the fact the Spartans are favored by so much is not surprising. The have one of the top quarterbacks in the Big Ten and a stout offensive line but they have to replace Big Ten Receiver of the Year Tony Lippett and 1,500-yard rusher Jeremy Langford so it will not be a seamless transition from last season. On the other side, the big issue for the Spartans defense is in the secondary that has to replace its top two players from last year and in addition are breaking in a new defensive coordinator as Pat Narduzzi moved on to take the head job at Pittsburgh. This is a no pressure game for the Broncos and we expect them to keep this highly competitive and stay within the inflated number. 10* (156) Western Michigan Broncos

Hawaii head coach Norm Chow has won just eight games in his three seasons and he enters this year clearly on the hot seat. A brutal early season schedule that features this game along with road games at Ohio St., Wisconsin and Boise St. is not ideal to turn things around but this is a very winnable game and one that this team needs for confidence. The normal powerful offense has been anything but however that could change here as up-tempo coordinator Don Bailey comes over from Idaho St. where the Bengals topped the FCS in passing yards per game (348.1) in 2014. Quarterbacks completed 60 percent of their passes and averaged an aggressive 12.9 yards per completion while throwing picks less than 2 percent of the time and getting sacked less than 3 percent of the time. Colorado expects to be an improved team this season as well but going from 2-10 to a better record shouldn't take much anyway. Offensively the Buffaloes will be solid and they plan to exploit a young Hawaii defense but it is the other side that is the problem. The Buffaloes ranked 102nd in the nation in rushing defense and 116th in scoring defense last season and there is not a lot of hope for a big improvement, that is where this number is good for Hawaii as they have the offense that can backdoor this spread if necessary. Even though not as intimidating as usual, Hawaii is always a tough place to play for opponents and the outright win here would not be surprising. 10* (150) Hawaii Warriors

UTSA and Arizona squared off last season and we won with the Roadrunners as they lost by just three points at home as a 7.5-point underdog. They were outgained by over 100 total yards however but were able to stay within the number thanks to an amped up home field but that will not be the case this season. UTSA goes from one of the most experienced team in the country with 20 starters returning to one of the least experienced teams with just three starters back this season, all on defense. The Roadrunners are the only team in the country that has to replace all starters on both lines so facing a strong Arizona team in their first game is not ideal. The Wildcats made it to the Pac 12 Championship last season and while it will be tough to get back there, the potential is there for another strong season. Wildcats quarterback Anu Solomon was brilliant at times last season and in others, he looked like a freshman. He has a lot to learn still but talent returns everywhere and he can get a lot better. He should have no problem against this defense. Sophomore tailback Nick Wilson rushed for 1,375 yards last season and has a chance for a big game. Arizona should improve on defense as well but even if it will take time, there is no worry here against an offense that has no one back. The close call in the meeting last season will no doubt have Arizona focused here. 10* (148) Arizona Wildcats

Week One of the college football season can be tricky as there is not much to work off of but the same goes for the linesmakers as well. They have the tough job in setting these lines and a lot of that is based on last year and predictions going forward for this season. Duke had an outstanding season last year and it has won 25 games over the past three season but 2015 could be tough out of the gate. Replacing quarterback Anthony Boone and receiver Jamison Crowder have moved on so the explosive offense from last season will be tough to replicate. Defensively, the Blue Devils are strong in the secondary but very weak up front. Tulane can take advantage. The Green Wave struggled with the passing offense behind Tanner Lee but they will be better and the running game is the strength anyway. Four offensive line starters are back and the three-headed backfield of Sherman Badie, Lazedrick Thompson and Dontrell Hilliard is one of the best in the American Athletic Conference. Tulane fell from 22nd in total yards allowed in 2013 to 55th last season but it should be on the way back up with several key starters returning. These teams met last season with Duke winning at home by 34 points despite outgaining the Green Wave by just 46 total yards. Duke was favored by 16.5 points there and the line is pretty equivalent based on the venue change which means it is way too high over the span of a year. 10* (144) Tulane Green Wave

This total continues to climb which is what we were hoping for and expected and it could reach 70 by gametime which would be the highest total either team has seen all season long. We saw a low scoring game yesterday in Birmingham, or lower than we have seen of late, and while that total went down from opening, a lot of that was weather related. Prior to yesterday, the over was 11-3-1 over the last 15 bowl games so it is to a point where the linesmakers have to overadjust these numbers based on heavy public action. This is another example of that as we have two potent offenses taking the field in Mobile. The big factor here is preparation time which I feel is a big edge for the defenses as well as the makeup of both offenses. While they both like to run a faced paced attack, both rely heavily on the run as Arkansas St. averages 12.7 more runs than passes while Toledo averages 10.5 more runs than passes. Those are significant differentials and we all know how much rushing can effect a total with the clock running as much as it should be. The defenses are nothing special but both have been decent against the run which could help limit the number of really big plays. Toledo is 9-0 to the under in its last nine games against teams averaging 31 or more ppg while Arkansas St. is 7-0 to the under in its last seven games away from home after allowing 31 points or more in two straight games. 10* Under (275) Toledo Rockets/(276) Arkansas St. Red Wolves

Florida is 6-5 and would be 7-5 if not for its game against Idaho being canceled early in the season and there is a lot at stake for the Gators as they are playing for their coaches and their futures with the program. Not only does Florida want to prove that it deserves respect with a 7-5 record, the players also want to make sure incoming head coach Jim McElwain is well-aware that they are talented and prepared to make an impact in 2015. after not going to a bowl game last season, the Gators will be highly motivated to win this one. This is a difficult spot for East Carolina as it is still trying to recover but its season ending loss against Central Florida on a last second hail mary. East Carolina comes in with a high powered offense but will be facing its toughest opposing defense of the season and will also be facing the elements as the weather may play a factor in slowing the Pirates down. The Gators are ranked eighth in the nation in total defense, they hold opponents to 4.45 yppl, have allowed opposing offenses just 23 touchdowns and have yielded 311.0 ypg. On the other side, despite its struggles, Florida's offense has been an efficient scorer in the red zone, converting 38-of-42 opportunities (.905) which is good for third in the SEC and 12th nationally. East Carolina will be without top running back Breon Allen who hurt his knee Wednesday as well as two key defensive players, All-AAC nose tackle Terry Williams and safety Domonique Lennon, who were ruled ineligible. 10* (274) Florida Gators

Oklahoma St. falls into the category of a below average team that was fortunate enough to make it to a bowl game because of conference affiliations. We won with the Cowboys in their regular season finale against rival Oklahoma as they won outright to become bowl eligible but it was a fortunate outright win as they returned a punt 92 yards with under a minute left to force overtime. Still, Oklahoma St. was outgained by the Sooners which was the case over its last seven games and by an average of 164.9 ypg and that alone tells you this is not a very good football team. Washington finished 7-5 and comes in riding a two-game winning streak. All five losses came against Pac 12 bowl teams and all of those teams have at least eight wins on the season so there is nothing weak about the record for the Huskies. Expectations were average coming into the season as Washington went 9-4 last season but brought back just 14 starters and lost most of its star power on offense. The big factor here is that the Huskies want to carry some positive momentum into next season and they have the coach that can do that with Chris Peterson in his first bowl game with the Huskies and we saw what he did with Boise St. in the postseason. His teams are 10-2 ATS in 12 games against teams that force one or fewer turnovers per game while Oklahoma St. is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine games against winning teams. 10* (272) Washington Huskies

Coming into the season, Tennessee was the only team in the nation that had to replace its entire offensive and defensive lines, so going 6-6 and making it to a bowl game is a huge achievement. The Volunteers are going to be good, very good, in the coming years but I do not think they are there quite yet and nor do I think they should be favored in a bowl game. The conference affiliation has a lot to do with this but the SEC has shown a lot of weakness as its teams are just 5-5 thus far with Tennessee and Florida remaining and the Volunteers reside in the weak East Division on top of it. One of the Volunteers win was over FCS Chattanooga, another against 5-7 Kentucky and the victory that got them bowl eligible came over 3-9 Vanderbilt by just a touchdown. Tennessee is outgaining opponents by just 3.1 ypg and while Iowa comes in at 7-5, it is outgaining opponents by 63.8 ypg and has been outgained just once over its last six games. The Hawkeyes lost to Nebraska in overtime to close the regular season, their second straight loss by three points or less and third overall on the season. Iowa is 6-0 ATS in its last six games away from home following a loss and head coach Kirk Ferentz knows how to get this team prepared, covering five of their last six bowl games, winning five of those outright. Tennessee meanwhile is just 8-20-1 ATS in its last 29 games against winning teams while going 1-5 ATS in its last six games following a win. 10* (267) Iowa Hawkeyes

The first year of the College Football Playoffs definitely came with some controversy but in the end, we have four very capable teams of taking home the National Championship. The second matchup is the Sugar Bowl between Ohio St. and Alabama. The Buckeyes snuck into the final four thanks to a 59-0 win over Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship as they leapfrogged TCU and now face another stiff test. Alabama had no issues with Missouri in the SEC Championship and it is a big favorite to make it to the championship game on January 12th. We will be looking at the total here however as I feel it is too big of a number with two outstanding defenses. Sure, both offenses can score a bunch and we have seen that of late with Ohio St. going over the total in three straight games and Alabama going over the total in its last two games. Those five games were basically surpassed by the offense that rolled to at least 42 points in each game. But taking a look at the defenses faced tells the story with the exception of Wisconsin which decided no to show up. Now the offenses will be facing the 10th ranked Crimson Tide defense and the 15th ranked Buckeyes defense. And I think these defenses can dictate the game and we are getting a very favorable number to work with. Both teams fall into a similar situation where we play the under in the second half of the season in a game involving two teams averaging 8.3 or more ypa, in non-conference games. This situation is 26-8 (76.5 percent) to the under the last five seasons. 10* Under (263) Ohio St. Buckeyes/(264) Alabama Crimson Tide

The first year of the College Football Playoffs definitely came with some controversy but in the end, we have four very capable teams of taking home the National Championship. The first matchup is the Rose Bowl between reigning champion Florida St. and Oregon. The Seminoles have lost three times since mid-2011, going 34-3 over their last 37 games with two of those losses coming by a single point. They are riding a 29-game winning streak but looking at this line, no one seems to be buying into it. Florida St. plain and simple finds ways to win and it remains the team to beat until it loses. It will be a challenge against Oregon for sure as the Ducks come in at 12-1 and they too come in a model of consistency with just four losses over the last three years. But as good as they have been, they should not be laying this kind of wood especially to a team that has not been an underdog since Week Four of 2011, a span of 50 games. And not only are they getting points but they are getting points greater than one possession which makes this a sure take. Luckily, no suspensions have been given out which is always a concern in these games so playing this one late didn’t matter but it is a chance well taken. Oregon has covered eight straight while Florida St. has failed to cover in three straight which is adding to the value. 10* (261) Florida St. Seminoles

While players tend to get up when their coach who they respected a great deal is fired, case in point Nebraska, players tend to also rise to the occasion when coaches betray them on move on and that will be the case with Wisconsin. Head coach Gary Anderson in a bizarre move left Wisconsin to take over the head coaching job at Oregon St. after Mike Riley left to become the new coach at Nebraska. AD Barry Alvarez will be on the sidelines for the Badgers for his second bowl game in three years as he also stepped in for Brett Bielema when he bolted to Arkansas. He will be the motivator as Wisconsin tries to bounce back from a 59-0 drubbing against Ohio St. in the Big Ten Championship and the Badgers should bounce back just fine. Auburn didn't exactly close with a flourish as it dropped three of its final four games and is now being asked to lay a touchdown against a very strong team. The Tigers will be without receiver D'haquille Williams who was suspended for this game for a violation of team rules and that is going to hurt the offense for sure. Wisconsin is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games against teams averaging 31 or more ppg while going 16-4 ATS in its last 20 games after being outrushed by 125 or more yards last game. 10* (255) Wisconsin Badgers

They say the best way to strop Georgia Tech is with extra time to prepare and based on its bowl record, that seems to be true as the Yellow Jackets are 1-5 in bowl games under head coach Paul Johnson. That can certainly be attributed to their opponents having at least two weeks to prepare for the triple option but it can also be attributed to the situation at hand. That being said, the lone Georgia Tech bowl win came in 2012 against USC which looked to have packed it in following a disappointing ending to the season where it lost four of its final five games heading into the postseason. While not as big of a skid, Mississippi St. is definitely in a down mood following losses in two of its last three games to from National Championship dreams to just an above average season. The Bulldogs made great strides this season and they have already guaranteed themselves 10 wins for the first time since 1999. They are 3-1 under Dan Mullen in bowl games including a win last season so there is not a ton of motivation heading into the Orange Bowl. The biggest factor is that it is another SEC team that has an inflated line because of what conference it is in. The Yellow Jackets won both games outright this season when getting a touchdown or more and they are getting the same amount they got in that USC bowl game with the four losses coming as a favorite or a shorter underdog. 10* (253) Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets