Sports Picks & Predictions

This is the highest total of the three New Year's Eve games and we will take advantage of that by playing the under. While this game features two offenses that can move the ball and score a ton of points, it also features two underrated defenses. While Boise St. and Arizona are ranked 39th and 103rd respectively in total defense, it seems like the Broncos have the far better defense when looking at yppl, Boise St. remains around the same ranking while the Wildcats jump up to 68th which is a better indication of where they stand. As far as the matchup, Boise St. is expected to run the ball a lot behind Jay Ajayi and for Arizona, with quarterback Anu Solomon struggling against Oregon and eventually getting benched, it is unlikely the Wildcats are going to set him free. The Broncos had a stretch of seven straight unders prior to their MWC Championship and one look at the opposition will tell you why. Both teams fall into a phenomenal late season bowl game situation that favors a low scoring game as we play the under in the second half of the season on a neutral field where the total is between 63.5 and 70 in a game involving two teams allowing between 21 and 28 ppg, in non-conference games. This situation is 24-4 (85.7 percent) to the under the last 10 seasons with the average score being just 51.3 ppg. The under is 7-2-1 in the Broncos last 10 games in December while the under is 6-1 in the Wildcats last seven games against teams with a winning record. 10* Under (251) Boise St. Broncos/(252) Arizona Wildcats

Georgia's season did not end like it wanted as it fell to Georgia Tech in its season finale in overtime which basically took the Bulldogs out of a big time bowl and landed them in the Belk Bowl in Charlotte. That loss was devastating and doesn't bode well for a team that is heading to a minor bowl games as pre-New Years Day bowl favorites of six or more points are just 10-24-3 ATS following a straight up loss as a favorite and the once again underachieving Bulldogs are once again ripe for an outright loss. Louisville meanwhile is coming off a win over Kentucky to end the regular season on a three game winning streak to move to 9-3 overall. That is big as the Cardinals are going after three straight seasons of double-digit victories for the first time in the history of the program and apparently, that has been a big motivator for coaches and players heading into this bowl game. Motivation plays a big part in bowl success, or lack thereof, and here we have two teams on complete opposite sides of the spectrum and we are catching a big number as well. The Cardinals possess the third best rushing defense in the country and they are one of a very few amount of teams that can slow down the Georgia run game. Louisville is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games away from home against winning teams while going 6-0 ATS in its last six games coming off a spread loss. 10* (245) Louisville Cardinals

Coming into the season with high expectations, Notre Dame started off great with a 6-0 record before a controversial loss against Florida St. was a dagger it could not remove as the Fighting Irish finished on a 1-5 run including losses in their last four games. Many people like to fade teams in bowl games coming in with significant losing streaks but I think this time it provides a great deal of motivation not to mention great line value. Notre Dame was an underdog of a touchdown or more just once and it covered at Florida St. and of its five losses, three were by four points or less. LSU isn't coming in with any great momentum either as it lost two of its final three games and went just 4-3 in its final seven games of the season and 5-4 over its last nine. The Tigers again possess one of the best defenses in the country but Notre Dame has an offense that can compete with that stop unit, as long as they do not turn the ball over. On the other side, the Fighting Irish defense got gashed during the second half of the season but LSU has been extremely inconsistent on offense and head coach Les Miles does not plan on altering much in this game. Of the eight wins for the Tigers, four came by six points or less including three of the last four and LSU is just 1-8 ATS in its last nine games away from home following a win. 10* (243) Notre Dame Fighting Irish

An old rivalry is reborn tonight when Texas and Arkansas get reacquainted from the days of the Southwest Conference. It has been an up and down season for both of these teams and with identical 6-6 records, this seems to be a pretty even matchup but that is not what the linesmakers are telling us. After losing four of its first six, Texas found its stride, winning three straight and gaining a berth into the postseason although it is coming off a blowout loss against TCU to close the regular season. Internally, it was tough at times for the Longhorns with many player suspensions and dismissals but head coach Charlie Strong did things the right way and yesterday he announced that all of his players are eligible to play tonight. Prior to back-to-back shutouts over LSU and Mississippi, Arkansas had dropped 17 straight SEC games so it is hard to back up the Razorbacks as suddenly having figured things out. Most surprisingly, they were outgained by the Rebels despite a 30-0 win and followed those two wins by losing to Missouri and getting outgained by 135 yards. Texas falls into a fantastic situation as we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in the second half of the season that are averaging between 21 and 28 ppg going up against teams averaging between 28 and 34 ppg, after scoring three points or less in the first half last game. This situation is 50-16 ATS (75.8 percent) since 1992. 10* (241) Texas Longhorns

This line has come down from opening due to the official word that West Virginia quarterback Clint Trickett is out due to concussions which has ultimately forced him to quit football. Skyler Howard played in only three games for West Virginia, taking over for Trickett against Kansas State and starting the regular-season finale versus Iowa State. On the other side, Aggies freshman quarterback Kyle Allen, hit 61.3 percent of his passes for 764 yards with nine touchdowns and four interceptions in four games since supplanting sophomore Kenny Hill as the starter. One big factor here is that the Texas A&M defense will be playing with a chip on its shoulder after the school fired defensive coordinator Mark Snyder following the loss to LSU in the regular season finale. Interim defensive coordinator Mark Hagen, also the linebackers coach, will be calling plays. One reason the defense was so bad was because that it was on the field the third more in the nation so having over a monthly off is huge. Motivation is on the side of the Aggies as head coach Kevin Sumlin has been preaching to his players that they can become the first team in program history to win four straight bowl games. West Virginia is 0-7 ATS in its last seven after a bye week while the Aggies are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game. 10* (238) Texas A&M Aggies

Nebraska finds itself in a rare position of being a ranked team playing in a bowl game without its head coach because he was fired. But that is the case tonight for the Huskers after Bo Pelini was dismissed on November 30th, two days after a 37-34 overtime win at Iowa. It surprised many including many players that loved playing for Pelini and there will be a ton of motivation for Nebraska to win this one for him. Barney Cotton, who served in a number of capacities as an assistant under Pelini, will lead an interim staff of Pelini's assistants so there will be a smooth transition. USC ended its season with a resounding win over Notre Dame but it is not overly impressive considering the Irish's downward spiral at the end of the season. Still, it was disappointing for USC which lost big to UCLA and lost out on a chance to play in the Pac 12 Championship and while this team is good, it should not be favored by this much. The Trojans rely on a strong passing offense but the Huskers match up very well as they finished third nationally with a 100.6 opponents' passer rating, allowing 12 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. Nebraska is 6-0 ATS in its last six games away from home against teams with a completion percentage of 58 percent or better. USC meanwhile is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 games off a home win while going 2-11 ATS in its last 13 games after outgaining opponent by 125 or more total yards in their previous game. 10* (235) Nebraska Cornhuskers

The underdog came through in two of three bowl games yesterday and we will start Saturday by grabbing the dog in the first game with Virginia Tech. The Hokies had a very trying season as they finished 6-6 and it wasn't until the season finale against Virginia that they were able to punch their ticket into the postseason for the 22nd straight year, the second longest streak in the nation. They are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games but seven of those games were in the role of favorite and overall, Virginia Tech went 3-1 ATS when getting points. Cincinnati comes in riding a seven-game winning streak so it is unfortunate that it had to take a break in-between the regular season and now as momentum can be hurt from it. These are streaks we like to go against especially considering that only two wins over the stretch came against teams going bowling. Virginia Tech is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games away from home after a win by six points or less and falls into a solid situation where we play on teams in the second half of the season that are averaging 3.5 to 4.3 ypc going up against teams allowing 4.3 to 4.8 ypc, after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game. This situation is 36-11 ATS (76.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (227) Virginia Tech Hokies

Central Florida comes in riding a four-game winning streak with all four of those games covering as well and I feel that is helping with this number tonight. The Knights concluded their season with a 51-yard Hail Mary as time expired to give UCF a 32-30 road win over East Carolina and the AAC title. So not only is that to overcome but the fact that the Knights played in the Fiesta Bowl last season is a big letdown for this group. NC State had a great turnaround season as it went from three wins last season to seven wins in 2014 and back into postseason play for the fourth time in five years. The Wolfpack concluded their season with a resounding win over rival North Carolina which was its second straight win following a 1-5 stretch that included some blowout losses against some power teams. They too have momentum coming in and a rushing game that should have success as NC State averaged 206 ypg on 5.4 ypc and that came against a difficult schedule. While the Knights possess a tough defense, they did not face a tough slate as five of their last six wins came against non-bowl teams. Look for the Wolfpack to run wild and take this one outright. 10* (225) NC State Wolfpack

At first glace, a power conference team getting a substantial amount of points from a non-power conference team may be tempting but it is this big for a reason. Illinois is fortunate to even be in a bowl game as it defeated Penn St and Northwestern to end the season which got it the necessary six wins to become eligible. Prior to that, the Illini had dropped five of its previous six games while getting outgained in all six of those games and by an average of 222.2 ypg so they were dominated thoroughly. The defense is awful, allowing 464.3 ypg especially the rushing defense which is giving up 249.6 ypg on 5.1 ypg, the worse of any team playing in the postseason. Louisiana Tech dropped a tough one to Marshall in the C-USA Championship by three points which was its third loss by three points this season. Louisiana Tech has benefitted from not only an opportunistic defense but also senior quarterback Cody Sokol, who came from Iowa, and passed for 3,189 yards and 29 touchdowns this season. The Bulldogs are 13th nationally in scoring offense, putting up 37.5 ppg. Louisiana Tech went a perfect 4-0 ATS this season after a loss, with the three outright wins coming by 28, 49 and 45 points. 10* (222) Louisiana Tech Bulldogs

This is one of those odd situations where we see a team with a losing record in a bowl game but because Fresno St. got to the mandatory six wins and also because of conference affiliations, here they are. The Bulldogs 13th game came in the MWC Championship which they lost to Boise St. but it was actually one of their better games of the season. They came on strong after a poor start that began at 0-3 but overall, they are getting outgained by 37 ypg and a suspect defense allowed three teams to achieve season highs in yardage. The Bulldogs defense has been atrocious to say the least, ranking 111th in yards allowed, 96th vs. the pass, 105th vs. the run and 101st in points allowed (32.6 ppg). Rice also started the season 0-3 but closed on a 7-2 run that including winning the yardage battle in all but two games against Marshall and Louisiana Tech which are a combined 21-6. Allowing 76 points in the season finale to Louisiana Tech was an anomaly as the Owls possess a strong defense as they allowed 23 points or less in all seven of their wins. Rice is 10-1 in its last 11 games against teams with a losing record while going 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games when having more than the typical week of preparation. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs are 5-16-1 ATS in their last 22 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. 10* (220) Rice Owls

Some may be surprised by this number but I think it could be a lot higher as giving the Marshall offense over two weeks of preparation can be deadly for the opponent. The Thundering Herd had two bye weeks this season and in the following game, they tallied 56 and 63 points and while this will be a tougher test, don't think that Marshall cannot put up a huge number today. Northern Illinois was struggling for a while before catching fire as it finished the season with seven straight wins including covers in each of the last three. Conversely, after covering eight of nine games, Marshall failed to cover in its last three games which sets up a great contrarian scenario here. Even though Marshall failed .to go through the season undefeated which many anticipated, there is still plenty of motivation. 14 seniors will be playing their final game for the Thundering Herd including senior quarterback Rakeem Cato. The Northern Illinois defense has been solid but has seen nothing like Cato. No quarterback has thrown more than two touchdowns against the Huskies this season, a mark Marshall Cato has either matched or eclipsed in all but two games in 2014. This is a spot the Huskies have not had success in as they are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games away from home against teams outscoring opponents by 17 or more ppg, losing those games by an average of 29 ppg. 10* (214) Marshall Thundering Herd

BYU and Memphis come into this game riding significant winning streaks and both offenses put up some big numbers over the last three games played for each. That being said, the time off is a big advantage for the defenses and the Memphis defense has been playing at a high level all season long. Coming in to this game the Tigers have the fifth ranked defense in points allowed and BYU had a tough time when it did face a strong stop unit. The Cougars defense has not been as consistent but they have been strong in such situations as head coach Rocco Mendenhall is 12-4 to the under against teams that are outscoring opponents by 17 or more ppg. Additionally, both teams fall into similar situations as we play the under in the second half of the season where the total is between 49.5 and 56 in a game involving two teams that are outgaining opponents by 50-100 ypg. This situation is 36-8 (81.8 percent) to the under over the last five seasons. Memphis has gone under the total in its last six games against teams with a winning record and is 19-8 to the under in its last 27 games against teams averaging 31 or more ppg. Meanwhile, the under is 20-8 in the Cougars last 28 games against teams with a winning record. 10* Under (211) BYU Cougars/(212) Memphis Tigers

Bowling Green and South Alabama enter the Camellia Bowl in not great form as the Falcons lost their last three games and the Jaguars went down in four of their last five games. There should be plenty of motivation on both sides to try and win considering Bowling Green has not won a bowl game since 2004 and South Alabama is making its first ever appearance in a bowl game. In this case, the matchup is a good one for a lot of points to be scored. Keeping opponents off the scoreboard has been a problem for Bowling Green, which surrendered over 40 points six times and is ranked 101st in the country in scoring defense, allowing 33.9 ppg. The rushing defense is especially bad and the Jaguars can take advantage as they have five players which ran the ball at least 65 times so they can bring it from a lot areas. Even though running keeps the clock moving, the can move it in big chunks and that of course will set up the passing game. On the other side, South Alabama was solid on defense up until its final two games of the season and it could be in for a long night here. Bowling Green features one of the nation's quickest offenses, averaging 29.8 ppg and 427.8 ypg and of its 43 touchdown drives, 27 took less than 120 seconds. We should see plenty of big plays and as long as we can avoid turnovers in deep enemy territory, this one should fly over the number. 10* Over (209) South Alabama Jaguars/(210) Bowling Green Falcons

Utah comes in as the favorite despite having the worse record mainly because the Utes reside in a stronger conference. They have played a stronger schedule than Colorado St. but it is hard to ignore the numbers as they have been outgained in nine of their last 10 games and their last five wins have come by a total of 18 points so they have been squeaking by. Colorado St. will be without its head coach Jim McElwain to has taken the job at Florida and a lot of time that can discourage a team heading into its bowl game but that won't be the case here. Offensive coordinator Dave Baldwin will serve as the interim coach and every other coach is here so it will be business as usual for the Rams. The offense will not miss a beat as they ranked 12th in the country in total offense led by quarterback Garrett Grayson, the Mountain West Offensive Player of the Year with 32 touchdown passes and six interceptions and he finished second in FBS passer rating behind Oregon Heisman winner Marcus Mariota. The Utes offense averaged over 120 ypg less than Colorado St. and with both defenses pretty equal, the Rams have the edge and we are getting points on top of it. The Rams are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss and the last game they were defeated by Air Force despite outgaining the Falcons by 95 yards. 10* (206) Colorado St. Rams

This series has been dominated by Navy in recent years as it is riding a 12-game winning streak over Army dating back to 2002. It is the longest winning streak by either team in this series that goes back to 1890 and the linesmakers are not believing that Army breaks that streak this season. Four of the last five meetings have been decided by less than what Army is getting this year and surprisingly, this is the highest pointspread in this series since 2006 when Army was getting 19 points and covered. What makes that surprising is the fact Army has come into this game with three or fewer wins six times since 2006 and it has more than that this season while Navy, at 6-5, has come into this game with seven or more wins seven times since 2006 so while the team's records are closer, the line is not. The Midshipmen are not having a great year and even though they come in with wins in four of their last five games, they are overvalued in this spot. The Army ground game is good enough to keep pace and the Navy defense will not provide much resistance. Taking care of the ball is paramount for the Black Knights as they have win the yardage battle three of the last four years only to lose because of costly turnovers. While the streak may not end this year, we will grab the generous points while rooting for the outright win. 10* (303) Army Black Knights

It was a very unfortunate break for Ohio St. when quarterback J.T. Barrett was lost for the season last week against Michigan. Now down to their third quarterback, the Buckeyes will not be able to win in a shootout and they will have to try and dictate the pace of this game for them to have their best shot at winning. We are still seeing a rather high total though and part of that is due to the recent history as Wisconsin has gone over in two of its last three games with a push and Ohio St. has gone over 10 of its last 11 games. So not only is there value in the number based on the contrarian angles but also the way we should see the game play out. The Badgers will try to grind out a win here by pounding the ball with running back Melvin Gordon, who rushed for 151 yards and one touchdown in last week's 34-24 win over the Golden Gophers. Ohio St. knows it has to stop the run which it has done a good job of this season. On the other side, the Wisconsin defense is ranked No. 2 in the nation because of an aggressive 3-4 scheme. The Badgers allow just 260.3 ypg and 16.8 ppg and while Cardale Jones is a capable backup quarterback, he will not be able to take control of the game against this defense. With a lot of running from both sides, the clock runs and this one stays under the total. 10* Under (127) Wisconsin Badgers/(128) Ohio St. Buckeyes

Alabama can get into the College Football Playoff with a victory here so this is a big game for obvious reasons. The Crimson Tide have been very inconsistent this season though as they have annihilated some teams while letting others stick around when they probably shouldn't. They are just 4-8 ATS which shows how much the linesmakers tend to overvalue Alabama and that is the case here and even more so away from home. Missouri has quietly put together a fantastic season, going 10-2 and they come into this game riding a six-game winning streak. The Tigers never should have lost to Indiana early in the season and their only bad game of the season came against Georgia. They have outgained their last five opponents by a total of 719 yards and while Alabama presents the biggest challenge, they have the strong defense that can keep this close. Missouri is tied for sixth in FBS with 3.33 sacks per game behind ends Shane Ray, who has an SEC-best 14, and Markus Golden (nine) and has five players with at least three QB stops. Missouri is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games against teams with a winning record while going 8-1 ATS in its last nine games as an underdog. Meanwhile, the Tide are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game. 10* (123) Missouri Tigers

It hasn't been the typical strong season for Oklahoma St. and it is in a bad rut right now but at 5-6, it can still become bowl eligible with a victory here so this game is huge. The linesmakers are not giving the Cowboys much of a shot here but in a big rivalry game, anything can happen and we are getting a generous number to work with. This is the highest pointspread in this series since 2001 when Oklahoma St. was getting 27.5 points. This is a 30-point swing from last season and the separation between these two teams has not gotten that big to warrant a line swing like that. Oklahoma is 8-3 on the season but coming in as a National Championship contender, it has been a disappointing season for the Sooners as well. In their last game, they were favored by 25 points over Kansas and it is safe to say that that the Jayhawks are just five points worse than the Cowboys. Here we play against home favorites of 10.5 to 21 points with a rushing defense allowing 3.25 or less rushing ypc, after allowing 1.0 or less rushing ypc last game. This situation is 23-3 ATS (88.5 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Additionally, Oklahoma St. is 13-3 ATS after allowing 17 points or more in the first half in two straight games. 10* (119) Oklahoma St. Cowboys

We won with Northern Illinois on Saturday as it defeated Western Michigan to gain a berth into the MAC Championship. The Huskies have won six straight games so they are obviously playing their best football of the season but now they go from more than a touchdown underdog to a touchdown favorite and I think that is too big of a move. Bowling Green ended the season with two straight losses but it meant little as the Falcons had already won the MAC East and while they didn't want to lose last time out at home on Senior Day, you could tell the intensity wasn't there. Bowling Green would like nothing more than to win this championship for a second straight season. Last year, No. 14 Northern Illinois entered seeking a third straight championship and in the conversation regarding a Bowl Championship Series game. Bowling Green won in a 47-27 rout, and Northern Illinois was relegated to the Poinsettia Bowl, where it lost 21-14 to Utah State. The Huskies would like payback but it isn't going to easy. Here, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in conference games, off a loss to a conference rival as a favorite of 10 or more. This situation is 49-21 ATS (70 percent) since 1992. 10* (106) Bowling Green Falcons

Playing road favorites is meant for only a few certain spots and this is one of those UAB is coming off two straight losses at home but those were against Louisiana Tech and Marshall who are the leaders of their respective divisions in C-USA. The Blazers came into that two-game stretch with a 5-4 record so now sitting at 5-6, this is a must win to gain bowl eligibility. UAB has a couple of road wins this season so it can no doubt win on the highway and not only does it need this game for the postseason but the Blazers will be out for revenge after last season's embarrassment. Southern Mississippi was 0-11 with nine of its previous 10 losses coming by double-digits when it traveled to UAB and destroyed the Blazers 62-27 as more than a two-touchdown underdog. There wasn't as much on the line then for UAB which makes this one extra strong. The Golden Eagles have three wins this season which is two more than the last two seasons combined so this is an improved team but they enter this game at the wrong time against the wrong team. Additionally, the Blazers are 17-8-1 ATS in their last 26 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game. 10* (379) UAB Blazers

Arguably the most surprisingly bad season in college football this season can be given to Texas-San Antonio. The roadrunner defeated Houston in their opener and then played Arizona tough before everything fell apart. What makes it so surprising is the fact that this was the most experienced team in the country coming into the season and they were a preseason favorite to win the C-USA West Division but now at 3-8, this is the final game for an incredible 19 senior starters and you know they all want to go out winners. The good news is that they are playing an opponent that has been nearly as bad as North Texas will not be going bowling either as it is 4-7 and coming off a rare win. The Mean Green are 0-5 on the road this season and they have not covered any of those games, losing by 18, 20, 35, 25 and 31 points. UTSA has been favored in its last four home games and while it has failed to cover, this is the lowest spread it has had to lay down. Overall, the Roadrunner have failed to cover their last four games which adds up to the value play here. We play against road teams that are +/- 0.6 yppl going up against teams that are being outgained by 0.6 to 1.2 yppl after allowing 225 or less total yards in their previous game. This situation is 36-10 ATS (78.3 percent) since 1992. 10* (426) Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners

We played on Rice last Friday and won as it took care of UTEP and that was more of a play against the Miners which had covered five straight games and had not defeated one team with a winning record as five wins came against teams 3-7 or worse and the best win came against 4-6 Old Dominion. Now the Owls hit the road with a lot on the line as the C-USA West Division is up for grabs. Rice is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games so we are getting value with the number because of that. Rice is 3-3 on the road with wins coming against teams no better than 4-8. Louisiana Tech could have wrapped up the division last week but lost at Old Dominion in overtime so this is an angry bunch ready to take out some frustrations on the Owls, a team the Bulldogs were hammered by last season 52-14. Louisiana Tech is 19-9 ATS in its last 28 games against teams with a winning record and 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games coming off a loss as a favorite. Rice meanwhile is 3-14 ATS in its last 17 road games after having won five or six out of its last seven games. 10* (362) Louisiana Tech Bulldogs

It has been a very disappointing season for Stanford as after winning at least 11 games in each of the last four years, the Cardinal are just 6-5 heading into their regular season finale. To their credit, they have lost some close games, three by a field goal in fact, but two of those came at home and on the highway, they are just 2-3. While they are bowl eligible, they would certainly like to get to seven wins but there is a lot more on the line for UCLA which is peaking at the right time. The Bruins have won five straight games and while a couple of those were close, they have outgained opponents by an average of 142 ypg and on the season, UCLA has been outgained only twice all season. Because the Bruins have already defeated Arizona and Arizona St., a win here and they clinch the Pac 12 South to earn a trip to the Pac 12 Championship. Stanford is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games after a win by 17 or more points while UCLA is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 home games after gaining 450 or more total yards in two consecutive games. 10* (338) UCLA Bruins

After Navy's destruction of Georgia Southern two weeks ago, it because one win away from bowl eligibility with this game and the annual game against Army remaining. The Midshipmen have been all over the place this season and look nothing like the Navy team we have seen over the last few years. In addition, this is a tough scheduling spot as this is their first true road game since October 4th, a span of nearly two months. South Alabama is already bowl eligible with six wins but going to a bowl is no guarantee so getting to seven wins is a must. The Jaguars are getting a ton of points here and a lot of that is due to their recent run of six straight non-covers and those are streaks we like to buck especially when asking an average team to cover close to double-digits. South Alabama would also like to get some payback from its 42-14 loss at Navy a season ago. We play against road favorites averaging 440 or more ypg going up against teams averaging between 330 and 390 ypg, after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game. This situation is 27-6 ATS (81.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (334) South Alabama Jaguars

We Lost with going against Western Michigan last week as it went on the road and defeated Central Michigan to keep the logjam in place in the MAC West. The Broncos are tied with Toledo and Northern Illinois at 6-1 with a berth in the MAC Championship on the line this week. While Western Michigan has the edge of playing at home, this line is not where it should be as these teams are pretty equal as far as power rankings go so there is an inflation based on the fact that the Broncos have covered an insane 10 straight games. They have won six straight games which betters North Illinois' winning streak by just one. The Huskies have won five straight with three of those coming on the road and at 5-1 on the highway, winning away from home is no problem. This has been a series the Huskies have dominated and even though the Broncos are vastly improved, a 43-point line shift from last year's meeting is simply too much. Northern Illinois is 10-0 ATS in its last 10 games off an upset win over a conference rival as an underdog. 10* (319) Northern Illinois Huskies

Ohio enters this game with a 5-6 record so it needs a win to become bowl eligible for the sixty straight season and while a bowl game is no guarantee, the Bobcats have to win and hope. Avoiding a sub-.500 season and a loss to the hated RedHawks certainly isn't a bad prize either for the Bobcats. One look at the schedule shows the season it has been as Ohio is 0-5 against teams with a winning record and 5-1 against everyone else. That lone loss was against a very good Kentucky team and the Bobcats are 3-0 against teams in the MAC East that they are either tied with or are below them. It has been an improved season for Miami as it has won twice following a 21-game losing skid and some of the losses this year were close ones but it will be tough for the RedHawks to pull this one out. Ohio, faced with rebuilding an offense in 2014, lost starting quarterback Derrius Vick for five games in the middle of the year because of injury. But his return, and the emergence of freshman running back A.J. Ouellette have provided the offense with some stability in recent weeks. With Ouellette and Vick providing a 1-2 rushing punch in the backfield, the Bobcats could find success against a Miami defense that ranks 11th in the MAC in points allowed (32.5) and rushing yards allowed (201.8) per game. The Bobcats are 4-1 ATS in their last five games against teams with a losing record while the Redhawks are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games against teams with a losing record. Look for Ohio to pull away here and at least have a chance at playing in another bowl game. 10* (301) Ohio Bobcats

It has been a struggle for Wyoming as it is 4-6 on the season and will have to win out against Boise St. and New Mexico to become bowl eligible. The Cowboys looked great in a victory against Fresno St. two games back but gave it back at home against Utah St. in a 20-3 loss but they did outgain the Aggies in that one. Wyoming is coming off a bye week which is big advantage here especially getting the opportunity to remain home for the duration between the two games. This is a great time slot for the Cowboys as they can play a night game and it was picked up by ESPN2 which will make the atmosphere even better. Boise St. is on a five-game winning streak but it has covered only two of those games and is on a two-game cover skid after not being able to defeat New Mexico or San Diego St. by significant amounts. Boise St. sits in a three-way tie fir first place in the MWC East Division and its game against Utah St. at home next Saturday will play into who becomes the champion. Here, we play against favorites of 10.5 to 21 points in the second half of the season that are off one or more straight overs and averaging 34 or more ppg going up against teams averaging between 16 and 21 ppg. This situation is 25-2 ATS (92.6 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (168) Wyoming Cowboys *LATE NIGHT BAILOUT*

Iowa has quietly put together a very solid season as it is 7-3 with two of those losses coming by a combined 10 points. The Hawkeyes put up a stinker against Minnesota two games back but they bounced back with a win last time out at Illinois and are back home after that two-game roadtrip where they are 4-1 on the season. They have had this game circled for over a year as last season Wisconsin came in and won 28-9 so they will be out for revenge. Wisconsin has lost a couple close games this season as well and since the last one at Northwestern, they have reeled off five straight wins, covering the last four. That is giving us a lot of value here and the fact that the Badgers are favored by more than what they were favored at Northwestern is a huge surprise. Wisconsin brings in a potent rushing attack but Iowa head coach Kirk Ferentz has been a master when it comes to this as under him, the Hawkeyes are 22-3 ATS versus teams averaging 5.25 or more rushing ypc. Additionally, we play against road favorites with an excellent rushing defense allowing 100 or less rushing ypg, after gaining 5.5 or more rushing ypc in two straight games. This situation is 47-17 ATS (73.4 percent) since 1992. Iowa has a great shot at this one outright so we will gladly jump on the generous points given to us. 10* (158) Iowa Hawkeyes *GAME OF THE YEAR*

We played against Appalachian St. last Saturday and lost but we won't hesitate going against the Mountaineers again here as we are getting a great line. They came to play last week as they outgained Arkansas St. by 235 yards for their fourth straight victory to improve to .500 on the season. That winning streak is no doubt helping us here as they were getting four and half points more last week than this week despite playing a team that is undefeated in the Sun Belt Conference. Louisiana is 6-0 in the conference following a win over rival UL-Monroe which was its sixth straight victory after opening the season 1-3. People were writing off the Cajuns after that slow start but they are clearly playing their best football of the year at the right time. They are two wins away from securing back-to-back conference championships and would get the automatic bid even if Georgia Southern stays undefeated since they are on probation coming up from the FCS. They are at 3-8 Troy next Saturday which makes this the final home game for 16 seniors. We play against road underdogs that are coming off a win over a conference rival as an underdog of six or more points going up against an opponent off a win against a conference rival. This situation is 84-38 ATS (68.9 percent) since 1992. 10* (186) Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns *ENFORCER*

Western Michigan is riding the nation's longest winning streak against the number as it has covered nine straight games after losing the cover in its opening game against Purdue by just a point and a half. The Broncos have won five straight games and they sit in a three-way tie for first place in the MAC West with Northern Illinois and Toledo. While it is a big game, it is not a must win though as they play the Huskies as home next Friday which could decide the division champion. Central Michigan is on a three-game winning streak following a tough three-point loss against Ball St., a game in which it outgained the Cardinals by 139 yards but lost the turnover battle 5-1. Overall, the seven wins are the most Central Michigan has recorded during the regular season under fifth-year head coach Dan Enos. This could be considered an even bigger game for Central Michigan which is a half-game back in the MAC West and with a win over Northern Illinois already, a victory over the Broncos could put them right in the mix. The Chippewas fall into an excellent situation where we play against road favorites that are averaging 440 or more ypg going up against teams averaging between 330 to 390 ypg, after allowing 6.25 or more yppl in their previous game. This situation is 26-6 ATS (81.2 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (150) Central Michigan Chippewas *AFTERNOON DOMINATOR*

We have been pretty high on UTEP as it has been playing solid of late. The Miners have won four of their last five games including a big win over North Texas last time out to become bowl eligible and more importantly for bettors, they have covered each of those last five games. The problem is however that UTEP has not defeated one team with a winning record as five wins have come against teams 3-7 or worse and the best win came against 4-6 Old Dominion. The last time the Miners faced a team with a winning record resulted in a 55-3 loss to Louisiana Tech back on October 4th. Rice comes in with the same 6-4 record and while its résumé is similar as far as wins and losses go, the Owls have fared much better against the better teams as they are outgaining opponents on average while the Miners are not. Rice had won and covered six straight games before getting blown out by Marshall in its last game but that has been the case for a lot of teams this year. They are at Louisiana Tech in their final game of the season so a win here likely means a 7-5 finish which is definitely needed for better bowl consideration. This number has come down from its opening which is what we wanted knowing that UTEP is 0-6 ATS in its last six games against losing teams while Rice is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games following a game on the road. 10* (118) Rice Owls *ENFORCER*

We lost with Arkansas St. last week as the Red Wolves opened a big lead but failed to hold on as they were outgained by 235 total yards. It was their worst effort of the season and I expect a big bounce back here on the road where they have won two of their last three. With no chance to win the Sun Belt Conference any more, a bowl game in no guarantee even if they finish 6-6. Arkansas St. will likely have to go 8-4 and with a sure home win next week against New Mexico St., this has become a really big game. Going back to the road success, the Red Wolves have covered 11 of their last 12 road games after the first month of the season. Texas St. is 5-5 and looking to achieve bowl eligibility but as decent as that record may look, it is impossible to ignore the numbers. The Bobcats have been outgained in seven of nine games against FBS competition and surprisingly, the two games they won the yardage battle, they lost. They have four wins against FBS foes and those have come against teams 2-8, 1-9, 3-7 and 2-8. To their credit, the Bobcats played South Alabama and Georgia Southern tough the last two games but trying to do so against a quality opponent for a third straight game is too much to ask. A big reason to go against Texas St. is the fact that it has covered four straight games and those are the streaks we like to go against when reaching that level. 10* (115) Arkansas St. Red Wolves *SUPREME ANNIHILATOR*

This was a late opener due to the fact that Massachusetts has quarterback issues. Quarterback Blake Frohnapfel was carted to the locker room in the fourth quarter last Wednesday against Ball St. with an injury to his right leg. He was questionable tonight but was downgraded to doubtful overnight and his loss is huge as Frohnapfel has accounted for 437 of the Minutemen's 442 passing attempts while throwing for 3,345 yards with 23 touchdowns and just 10 picks. Freshman quarterback Austin Whipple is the backup and he has yet to throw a collegiate pass. The Minutemen have banked on their passing game to run their cover streak to six straight games but that is in serious jeopardy tonight. Akron meanwhile has been just the opposite as it has gone six straight games without a cover while losing its last four outright. The Zips were in great position to secure a bowl bid but now they are forced to win their last two games to get eligible but both games are against teams not going bowling to it is very attainable. Three of these last four games were on the road however and Akron is 3-2 at home with the losses coming against 10-0 Marshall and 7-3 Bowling Green and they actually outgained the latter but lost the turnover battle 5-1. Akron falls into a great rushing angle, something Massachusetts may have to reluctantly rely upon, as we play on conference home teams in the second half of the season that average between 3.5 to 4.3 ypc going up against teams averaging between 3.0 to 3.5 ypc. This situation is 35-8 ATS (81.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (102) Akron Zips

Oregon St. opened the season 4-1 but it has dropped its last four games to fall a game under .500 for the first time this late in the season since 2011. The Beavers have failed to cover and of those last four games as well so this line is based on that as well as a high profile team coming to visit. It will be up to the Oregon St. offense to trying and get things going as it has been moving the ball well but failing to find the end zone and settling for field goals has been the big issue. And the Beavers have a great chance here to bust out and the time slot for this game could not be any better for them. Arizona St. is in first place in the Pac 12 South, while sporting an 8-1 overall record thanks to five straight wins. The most recent was a 55-31 beatdown of Notre Dame, which also put the Sun Devils into the College Football Playoff discussion where they are currently sixth. But they are in a horrible spot as the Sun Devils are coming off back-to-back victories at home against ranked opponents so there is a chance they could be due for a letdown on the road. The home team has dominated this series with four straight wins and well as victories in seven of the last eight meetings. Oregon St. is 22-9 ATS in its last 31 games coming off a loss by seven points or less and under head coach Mike Riley, it is 6-0 ATS after allowing 450 or more total yards in two consecutive games. 10* (394) Oregon St. Beavers

This is an interesting matchup in that both Utah and Stanford are coming off blowout losses against Oregon in their last game. The Utes lost last week 51-27 which was their second straight loss and the fact they are even as good as 4-3 over their last seven games is astounding as they have been outgained in every one of those seven games. Overall, Utah is 6-3 but it has been outgained by an average of 18.2 ypg which may not seen significant but it is important because lines and public perception go hand-in-hand with the records of teams. Stanford lost two weeks ago at Oregon 45-16 but it was only a 15-point game in the fourth quarter and the Cardinal were outgained by just 97 total yards so that loss was not nearly as bad as the final score shows similar to the Utah game. But that game was on the road which is a big difference. While Stanford is a game worse than Utah, it is outgaining opponents by 106.6 ypg which is a better indication of how it is playing compared to Utah but the touchdown spread is attracting Utah money because of the records and Stanford's supposed struggles. The Cardinal have been a great bounceback team as they are 22-9 ATS after allowing 42 points or more last game while going 6-0 ATS in home games after playing their last game on the road over the last 2 seasons and 6-0 ATS in home games after one or more consecutive losses against the spread over the last 2 seasons. This is the final home game for the Stanford seniors and they will make it count. 10* (356) Stanford Cardinal

After starting the season 1-5 with the lone victory coming over Campbell of the FCS and one of those losses coming off another FCS team, Appalachian St, has turned the corner and won its last three games. Now the Mountaineers are catching double-digits for just the third time this season but don't think we will be jumping on the bandwagon here. They were blown out in those two games when getting double-digit points and this current win streak has come against teams that are a combined 6-23. Arkansas St. still has a lot to play for as it is 4-1 in the Sun Belt Conference and still has a shot at its fourth straight conference championship. It will need help along the way but the Red Wolves have no choice but to win out and with the three remaining teams sitting below them in the standings, this should happen. Arkansas St. is already bowl eligible but there is certainly more to play for and playing at home has been a great advantage as they are 4-0 straight up and against the number in Jonesboro. Arkansas St. has been favored by double-digits five times this season and they have gone 4-1 ATS in those games with the lone spread loss coming by just a half-point. Here, we play against road underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points that are coming off a win by 3 points or less over a conference rival, in November games. This situation is 34-10 ATS (77.3 percent) since 1992. Arkansas St. is 6-0 ATS in its last six games against teams averaging 450 or more ypg and 8-0 ATS in its last eight games after scoring 31 points or more in three straight games. 10* (352) Arkansas St. Red Wolves

This is one of the biggest games in recent memory for Minnesota as it sits in a three-way tie in the Big Ten West Division at 4-1 with Nebraska and Wisconsin. Here's the deal. If the Golden Gophers win out, they are the division champions but with the final two games of the season against the aforementioned Huskers and Badgers on the road, that probably isn't likely. Still, this is a very solid team that should be undefeated in the conference as a loss to Illinois is the lone blemish despite outgaining the Illini by 148 yards. The Gophers are coming off a destruction last week against a very good Iowa team so the confidence is sky high. Ohio St. continued its march toward the College Football Playoff as it took care of Michigan St. last week without much problem. This is the Buckeyes final road game of the season before closing at home against Indiana and Michigan so a trip to the Big Ten Championship seems imminent. Ohio St. has covered all but one of its last seven games since losing to Virginia Tech so the lines are shaded the other way and the Gophers are catching a higher than expected number here. This is also a big letdown spot for the Buckeyes after their revenge win over the Spartans. Minnesota's only other loss came at TCU where it committed five turnovers. Here, we play against road favorites that are averaging 440 or more ypg going up against a team allowing between 330 to 390 ypg, after allowing 6.25 or more yppl in their previous game. This situation is 49-19 ATS (72.1 percent) since 1992. 10* (326) Minnesota Golden Gophers

Tulsa snapped its seven-game losing streak with a win last week against SMU which really isn't saying much. It has been a struggle for a second consecutive season for the Golden Hurricane as they will miss out on a bowl game again after a string of three straight bowl games. The defense has been the issue which is evidenced by their 8-1 over mark on the season but they have faced some tough offenses along the way. That cannot be said on Friday however as UCF is averaging just over 330 ypg which is 112th in the country. The Knights are coming off a loss against Connecticut in their last game as their own defense, which is the strength of the team, let them down by allowing 37 points. They came into that game allowing an average of just 14 ppg over their previous five games so that unit is going to come into this one ready to made amends. They have gone over the total in two straight games but now they are seeing their biggest total of the season which present some great value going the other way. This is an interesting dynamic whereas Tulsa has produced an average of 922 yards in its games which is 15th most in the country but UCF has produced an average of just 638.4 yards in its games which is the fourth fewest in the country. The Knights are the better team by far which means the game will be controlled by their game thus resulting in a low scoring game. 10* Under (317) Tulsa Golden Hurricane/(318) Central Florida Knights

East Carolina has absolutely dominated the stat book this season as it has outgained all eight opponents but somehow has a couple losses in there. The worst one came last time out against Temple and even though it was on the road, the Pirates were big favorites by 9.5 points and lost by 10 points despite outgaining the Owls by 293 total yards. Losing five fumbles will do that to just about any team. When you outgain the opponent in every game, the net yardage variance is usually big and for East Carolina, it has +210.1 ypg differential which is fifth best in the country. After covering their first four games, the Pirates have failed to cover their last four and that is giving us tremendous value even though they are favored once again. Cincinnati has won three straight games while covering all three as well which goes along with the contrarian value again. Despite being 5-3 overall, the Bearcats are actually getting outgained by an average of close to 10 ypg so we are talking about a huge statistical variance between these two teams and while both may be 3-1 in the AAC, they are very different 3-1 teams. East Carolina is 11-0 ATS in its last 11 games after one or more consecutive straight up losses while Cincinnati is 0-8 ATS in its last eight home games after two consecutive covers as a favorite. 10* (311) East Carolina Pirates

Bowling Green because bowl eligible last Tuesday with a win over Akron and it now has a 1.5 game lead over Ohio in the MAC East with three games remaining. After scoring 31 or more points in six of their first seven games, the Falcons have totaled just 41 points in their last two games and going back, they have gone under in their last four games. That presents us with a great opportunity to cash the over on Wednesday as Bowling Green is working with its lowest total of the season and its first one in the 50's all year. Falcons games have produced an average of 974.3 ypg this season which is the sixth highest yardage output in the country. Kent St. fell to 1-8 with a loss against Toledo last Tuesday in a game that also stayed below the total, the second straight under for the Golden Flashes. The offense has been hit or miss this season and has been the latter the majority of the time but even Kent St. should have success moving the ball against Bowling Green's 123rd ranked defense. On the other side, the defense has shown signs of good play but those times have been rare and the Golden Flashes are just 88th in total defense. They have faced four teams ranked in the top 50 in offense and have allowed an average of 38.3 ppg while allowing just 23.6 ppg in the other five games against teams ranked outside the top 50. Bowling Green falls into the former so we should see plenty of points. 10* Over (307) Kent St. Golden Flashes/(308) Bowling Green Falcons

This game has turned into a big rivalry in the MAC and this year there is a lot on the line with first place in the MAC West in the sights for both teams. The winner will keep pace and be in good position while the loser could very well be eliminated after tonight. Northern Illinois has won three straight games and trails Toledo by a game so a victory will put it into a first place tie but the Huskies would hold the tiebreaker. After two straight road games, this is the first home game in three weeks and it is also the final home game of the season which given Northern Illinois a big edge for Senior Night. Toledo has yet to lose in the conference but it has had some close calls along the way. This game was off the board until Monday due to the injury situation for Toledo. Logan Woodside has now been downgraded to doubtful for tonight with a leg injury suffered last week at Kent St. He has thrown for 1,711 yards with 14 touchdowns and just five picks and has been the general in a Toledo offense that has had no problem putting points on the board. The Rockets will likely lean on redshirt freshman Michael Julian, who finished out the last game against Kent St. but was largely ineffective. Even if Woodside cane go, he will not be close to 100 percent. The Huskies have a great contrarian situation on their side as we play against underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are coming off two straight wins against conference rivals going up against an opponent off a double digit road win. This situation is 42-10 ATS (80.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (304) Northern Illinois Huskies

Oregon and Utah both come in riding 4-0 ATS runs but there is a huge difference between the two. Utah has lost the yardage battle in all four of those games and is actually 0-6 in TYD over its last six games, while Oregon has outgained its opponent in three the last four games including three in a row. We played against the Utes last Saturday against Arizona St. and it was an extremely frustrating non-cover as they were outgained by 203 total yards but lost by just three points in overtime. Now Utah faces the most explosive offense it has seen and one that surely will keep the pedal down in order to impress the playoff committee. The Ducks are right back in the hunt in the latest College Football Playoff rankings as they moved from fifth lace to fourth place so now they control their own destiny for the most part and that is a huge motivator. Laying points on the road can be tricky but if there is one team that has no problem doing it, it is the Ducks are they are 15-6 over their last 21 games as a road chalk including 3-0 ATS when favored by single digits. Additionally, the Ducks are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games against teams with a winning home record while the Utes are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game and 0-5 ATS in their last five games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. 10* (193) Oregon Ducks

UTEP cashed for us last week as it rolled over Southern Mississippi even though the Miners played far from their best game. We will be riding them again this week as they are getting points against a team that is going in the opposite direction. UTEP has won three straight games and is just one win from bowl eligibility so it has already matched its win total for the last two seasons combined. The big turnaround can be attributed to a defense that has allowed only 14 points over the last two games and while it will b e facing a tougher offense this week, it is the defense on the other side that makes this one pop. Western Kentucky has been able to stop no one of late as it has allowed 42, 45, 51 and 59 points the last four games, each getting worse going forward. That is not a good sign going up against a Miners offense that is clicking at the right time by averaging 37 ppg over its last three games. We have two great situations on our side as first, we play against home teams after allowing 37 points or more last game against going up against an opponent after two straight wins by 17 or more points. This situation is 54-21 (72 percent) over the last five seasons. Second, we play on teams in the second half of the season that are +/- 40 ypg in rushing differential going up against teams getting outrushed by 50 or more ypg, after allowing 100 or less rushing yards in two straight games. This situation is 24-5 ATS (82.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (167) UTEP Miners

We have been involved in only one Kansas game this season and that was back in Week Five when we bet against the Jayhawks and they were shutout at Texas. That was the first of five straight losses to open Big XII action and Kansas is now one loss away from staying home in the postseason for the sixth straight season. While we would not touch the Jayhawks if they were laying any sort of number, the fact they are getting points here against a team that is just as bad shows tremendous value. The Cyclones come in with an identical 2-6 record and while they do own one quality victory this season against Iowa, it has been a rough stretch since then. Iowa St. is 1-4 over its last five games while getting outgained by 716 yards over that stretch. The last time Iowa St. was asked to lay points on the road was close to two years ago in this same stadium and while it succeeded with a big win over Kansas, the situation was totally different as the Cyclones needed that win to become bowl eligible. And now, they are laying more points with the slightest chance of going bowling this season. Here, we play on home teams in the second half of the season in a game involving two teams getting outscored by 10 or more ppg, after allowing 42 points or more last game. This situation is 48-18 ATS (72.7 percent) since 1992. Additionally, Kansas is 6-0 ATS in its last six games after a loss by 35 or more points. 10* (140) Kansas Jayhawks

We have gone against Army on the road twice this season at Stanford and at Wake Forest and it has not won a road game since 2010 as it has lost 19 straight game on the highway. That is the true highway however and this game is being played on a neutral field at Yankee Stadium and not counting the game against Navy, a perennial beatdown, the Black Knights in fact won their other neutral site game last season against Louisiana Tech. Connecticut is coming off an upset win at home last weekend against Central Florida which snapped a five-game losing streak. The Huskies took advantage of four turnovers which ended up being the difference as they scored a season high 37 points. They managed only 327 yards of offense which has been the issue all season and despite the eight-point win, Connecticut was outgained by 102 yard. It was the seventh time in eight games that the Huskies have been outgained this season with the only positive yardage differential being just 35 yards against Temple. Now Connecticut is being asked to lay points for the first time this season against a team from the FBS and going back, they are 0-5 ATS in their last five games as a favorite, losing four of those games outright with the lone victory coming against Stony Brook of the FCS by just three points. Connecticut is 0-6 ATS in its last six games against teams who give up 34 or more ppg while going 3-10-1 ATS in its last 14 games following a win. 10* (158) Army Black Knights

We are going the opposite way with our total on Friday as we are catching another matchup with a skewed over/under based on recent results. Utah St. travels to Wyoming for a rare nationally televised game in Laramie. The Aggies became bowl eligible last Saturday with a win at Hawaii, its second straight win over a bottom feeder from the MWC. Both of those games went over the total as well as last week they were able to surpass the 41.5 number with ease. Now Utah St. is seeing a higher number this week with a lot that based on the other side. Wyoming snapped a four-game losing streak with a victory last week at Fresno St. as it scored a season high 45 points. The Cowboys offense has picked things up lately, scoring 28 or more points in three of its last four games after scoring 20 points or less in its first five games. This has a lot to do with the defenses faced however and this week they will take on an Aggies stop unit that has allowed 20 points or less in five straight games and one that is ranked 39th in total defense. Wyoming has gone over the total in five straight games and that is helping with the number this week. Four of those games were on the road and the other game at home took overtime to surpass. The under is 10-3 in the Aggies last 13 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game while the under is 12-3 in the Cowboys last 15 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. 10* Under (115) Utah St. Aggies/(116) Wyoming Cowboys

It is rare to see a total this low in college football but with recent offensive struggles by both teams, it isn't all that surprising. What is surprising though is the struggles on offense on the Clemson side as it has been unable to do nothing on that side of the ball the last three games. The Tigers have scored 23, 17 and 16 points over their last three games but they have played some solid defenses in those games that are ranked 6th, 11th and 38th. Wake Forest will be the worst defense it has faced over this stretch and I expect this offense to come back around behind quarterback Cole Stoudt who has actually been very solid in his three games since replacing Deshaun Watson. The Demon Deacons have allowed an average of 32 ppg over their last three games and two of those came against Boston College and Syracuse, ranked 65th and 93rd respectively in total offense. Wake Forest has had problems on offense all season long as it has not surpassed 24 points in any game. It has gotten even worse of late but we are banking on some success Thursday night despite playing a very tough Tigers defense. This number is low enough to where we do not need Wake Forest to go off as a limited amount of points will help as the Clemson offense takes care of most of this total. Wake Forest has gone under in five straight and Clemson has gone under in four straight so that makes this a huge contrarian value play. 10* Over (111) Clemson Tigers/(112) Wake Forest Demon Deacons

Northern Illinois has to get out of this game with a win and then gets a chance to host first place Toledo next Tuesday with first place in the MAC West on the line. The Huskies have not been the dominating team like they have been in the past but they are sitting at 3-1 in the conference which is just a game out of first place. The proof of not being dominant this season is looking at their recent ATS record as Northern Illinois is currently on a five-game losing streak against the number. That sets us up very well here as we are catching a very manageable number to cover by. Ball St. is 3-5 overall including a 2-2 record in the MAC. The Cardinals have won two straight games which came after a five-game losing skid. They defeated Colgate out of the FCS in their season opener while outgaining the Red Raiders by 287 yards but since then, they are 1-5-1 TYD (Total Yardage Differential) and are getting outgained by close to 40 ypg. On the flip side, Northern Illinois is outgaining opponents by 62.3 ypg and cit has been outgained only twice all season. Ball St. will be fired up for a home game on national TV but that won't be enough here as the Huskies are still the much better team with a lot more at stake. The Huskies are 8-0-1 ATS in their last nine road games against teams with a non-winning home record. 10* (107) Northern Illinois Huskies

Toledo is coming off a win against Massachusetts in its last game by just seven points and now it is laying its second biggest number of the season and on the road no less. The Rockets have not been able to cover much this season as they are 1-6 against FBS teams and a big reason for that is that they are still a public favorite and they have yet to win a game against an FBS opponent by more than 14 points. They have been outgained on four of their seven games against teams from the FBS as their defense has been horrendous as they have allowed 35 or more points four times. This is a defense that even Kent St. should be able to break through as it has not been able to do so very much. The Golden Flashes have scored more than 17 points only once this season but their defense has kept some of their games within reason as not counting games against Virginia and Ohio St., four of the other five losses have been by 10 points or less. Toledo is in first place in the MAC West with a 4-0 record but right on its heels is 3-1 Northern Illinois which plays Wednesday and the Rockets travel to face the Huskies next Tuesday which puts them in a classic lookahead spot here. While the Rockets may come away with the victory here, doing so by more than two touchdowns is too much to ask. 10* (104) Kent St. Golden Flashes

We missed the good opening number on this one but it should not come into play anyway. UTEP won its second straight game, a 34-0 shutout of UTSA on Saturday and it dominated just as the score indicates as the Miners won the yardage battle by 281 yards. Now they head back home where they are 2-1 and they are also 2-1 in the conference while a victory will have them one win away from bowl eligibility. Not bad for a team that won only five games over the last two years combined. Southern Mississippi has also made some positive strides as after missing only one games over the last two seasons, the Golden Eagles already have three wins this season. Two of those wins came against struggling North Texas and Appalachian St. while the third was against Alcorn St. of the FCS. They played well for most of the game last week against Louisiana Tech but suffered a blow when starting quarterback Nick Mullens went down with a foot injury and he is questionable for this week. UTEP is favored by less than what North Texas was favored by in the last road game for Southern Mississippi and that should not be the case. Here, we play on teams that have a +/- 5 ppg differential) going up against a team with a -10 ppg differential or worse, after allowing 14 points or less last game. This situation is 36-11 ATS (76.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (398) UTEP Miners

We lost with Oklahoma St. last week as it fell behind 14-0 and could not recover. It was the second straight loss but they were outgained by only 12 yards but the problem was that they could not covert when needed as the Cowboys were just 3-20 on third and fourth down. Things won't get any easier this week but Oklahoma St. is getting a very favorable number and the setup is outstanding as this is a great bounceback opportunity. Kansas St. is coming off its second straight really big win as it took down Oklahoma two weeks ago and then shut out Texas last week. Overall, it was the Wildcats four straight victory and their fifth straight cover which in itself is a solid go against angle. With the Cowboys slumping and coming off two big win, it would not be shocking to see Kansas St. come in lethargic especially with a game at TCU next week. This series has been very tightly contested as each of the last seven meeting has been decided by fewer points than what the Cowboys are getting this week. Oklahoma St. falls into a fantastic contrarian situation as well as we play against favorites of 10.5 to 21 points after allowing nine points or less last game going up against an opponent after two straight losses by 17 or more points. This situation is 29-7 ATS (80.6 percent) since 1992. Also, the Cowboys are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a double-digit loss at home. 10* (367) Oklahoma St. Cowboys

It was expected that Vanderbilt was in for a tough season with all of the losses in incurred and that has proven true as the Commodores are 2-6 overall including 0-5 in the SEC. the two victories have come by a combined four points and one of those was by just a single point against Charleston Southern of the FCS. Vanderbilt has been outgained in every game this season and while it is on a solid 4-1 ATS run, all of those covers came as an underdog of at least 16.5 points. Now the Commodores go back to the role of favorites where they are 0-3 ATS on the season. What started out as a good season for old Dominion has gone south quickly as the Monarchs have lost four straight games and was unable to cover any of those games. Those games were against some solid competition however and despite playing a team from the SEC this week, they are not at a big disadvantage at all. While the defense has been horrible, Vanderbilt has an offense that is ranked third to last in the country so it cannot take advantage. And on the flip side, Old Dominion has a solid offense and should have no issues keeping it going here. The Monarchs fall into a solid situation where we play against home favorites team from a major division conference going up against a team from a second tier conference, off a road loss against a conference rival. This situation is 56-25 ATS (69.1 percent) since 1992. 10* (377) Old Dominion Monarchs

Miami Ohio may be out of bowl contention already, but it continues to play hard and expectations were low coming in so everything positive at this point is a great stepping stone for next season. The RedHawks were 0-12 last season but they already have two wins this season and have missed out on a couple more by narrow margins. They were outscored by nearly 24 ppg last season but this year, they are getting outscored by just 8.1 ppg which is a dramatic increase. Miami has won two straight at home and has won the yardage battle in its last three home games. Western Michigan is having an even better turnaround season as it has gone from 1-11 last year to 5-3 through eight games in 2014. This includes three straight wins and the Broncos are tied for the longest ATS winning streak in the country with seven straight covers. That is certainly playing into this number and after playing their first five road games as an underdog, the Broncos are now favored on the road for the first time which is a red flag. Miami Ohio is 5-0 ATS this season when getting a touchdown or more and its only underdog loss came by just a point and a half when it lost by eight points as a 6.5-point dog against Buffalo. The Redhawks are 4-0 ATS in their last four games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game while Western Michigan is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games as a road favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. 10* (344) Miami Ohio RedHawks

After three wins all of last season, Memphis already has surpassed that as it is 4-3 including 2-1 in the AAC which is just a game out of first place. I'm not completely sold on the Tigers however and they should not be favored by this much against a team with a pulse. They were favored by 22 at SMU last time out but the Mustangs are arguably the worst team in the FBS. This is taking nothing away from what head coach Justin Fuente has done this season but at 4-3, are the Tigers really this good according to the line? Tulsa is not having a good season and one more loss means its bowl hopes are gone and it will be sitting at home during the postseason for a second straight year. The chances of closing out with five straight wins is pretty much guaranteed not to happen but if we are going to see an all out effort at least one more time, this is the game with elimination on the line. The Golden Hurricane have lost their last six games while covering only one of those but this is the biggest number they have seen against a team not names Oklahoma. Three of the six losses have been within this number so they have not been completely dominated. Tulsa is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games as an underdog coming off a bye week and in this case, Memphis has only five days to prepare for this one. The Tigers are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 games off a double digit road win and 4-16 ATS in their last 20 games after scoring 42 points or more last game. 10* (307) Tulsa Golden Hurricane

Rushing advantages/disadvantages are a lot more prevalent in college football than in the NFL and those variances can often be the biggest deciding factor in a win/loss or cover/non-cover. That is definitely the case here as Georgia Southern will have no issues moving the ball on the ground. The Eagles have won five straight games and are sitting at 6-2 on the season with the only losses coming against NC State and Georgia Tech by a combined five points. They are in first place in the SBC with a 5-0 record and control their own destiny at this point. Troy is riding a two-game losing streak and its only win this season came against lowly New Mexico St. and this is certainly not the season head coach Larry Blakeney envisioned in his final one with the Trojans. The Eagles are averaging 402.1 ypg on 7.4 ypc both of which are the highest averaged in the country. Troy meanwhile is allowing an average of 244.6 ypg on 5.7 ypc which is near the bottom in the entre nation so stopping this attack will be next to impossible. Two situations are in our favor also. First, we play against road underdogs outrushed by their opponents by 1.25+ yards/carry on the season, after allowing 6.5 or more rushing yards/attempt in 2 straight games. This situation is 25-4 ATS (86.2 percent) since 1992. Second, we play on favorites of 21.5 to 31 points that are averaging 230 or more ypg rushing against teams averaging between 100 and 140 ypg rushing, after gaining 275 or more rushing yards last game. This situation is 25-5 ATS (83.3 percent) since 1992. 10* (304) Georgia Southern Eagles

Florida St. is the reigning National Champion and is sitting undefeated against this season at 7-0 following a thrilling, albeit fortunate win over Notre Dame two Saturday's ago. The Seminoles have been able to get the job done for the most part but they have not been nearly as dominating like they were last season and that is proven by their 1-6 record against the number. They have won both true road games but failed to cover against NC State and Syracuse and this is now the biggest road test of the season. Louisville is 6-2 and has outgained all but one opponent and that negative was just three yards against Virginia. The Cardinals are 4-0 at home and while this will be their biggest home test, they are getting a substantial amount of points for a team that has a big edge in a significant category. That is rushing. The Seminoles are ranked 94th in rushing ypc and have really struggled against the better defenses they have faced in Notre Dame, Clemson and Oklahoma St. Now comes Louisville which is ranked number one in the country in rushing defense and total defense for that matter. And schedule strength doe not come into play as both have played fairly similar schedules. I love the fact that Bobby Petrino has had extra time to prepare for this one as he should have his offense ready as well. Florida St. is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game while Louisville is 5-1 ATS in its last six games after allowing less than 20 points in its previous game. 10* (306) Louisville Cardinals

It has been a very disappointing season for South Carolina as it came into season ranked in the top ten in the Preseason AP Poll only to get blown out on opening night. It has not gotten much better since then as it has lost two other times and it now just 4-3 on the season after a less than thrilling win over Furman last week. The Gamecocks are 0-6 ATS as favorites but won and covered in their only game as an underdog which came against Georgia. The number was small but that cannot be said about this one as they are catching their biggest number since 2009 when they caught double-digits twice, and covered both. Auburn is coming off its first loss of the season two weeks ago against Mississippi St. The Tigers were able to rebound last season after losing early in the season but I think it is going to be more difficult this time around. Because of the down season South Carolina is having, the Tigers may not be fully focused here and may be more concerned about their trip to Mississippi next week. We are catching great value as this line was -7 when it was first released by the Golden Nugget over the summer and While South Carolina has regressed, I don't think it is that much. The Gamecocks are 96-2 ATS in 11 games under Steve Spurrier after a win by 28 or more points while going 16-6 ATS under Spurrier against teams outscoring opponents by 17 or more ppg. 10* (117) South Carolina Gamecocks

We got burned badly last week with Oklahoma St. as TCU was able to bounce back after their loss against Baylor. We will back the Cowboys again this week as we are banking on them doing the bouncing back this week. They were pounded by 33 points, outgained by 418 total yards and they failed to score in double-digits for the first time since 2009. it was the second straight poor effort on the road for Oklahoma St. as it squeaked out a seven-point win over lowly Kansas the previous week but now it heads home where it is 4-0 on the season. The Cowboys have lost here only four times since 2010 and those losses were against Oklahoma (twice, Texas and Nebraska. Losing here to West Virginia is not an option, especially after losing in Morgantown last year so revenge comes into play. The Mountaineers pulled off the huge upset last week against Baylor to improve to 5-2 and crack the AP and USA Today top 25 polls. Those are obviously meaningless and that big win over the Bears provides a great letdown opportunity. Oklahoma St. is 17-3 ATS in its last 20 home games following a loss by 21 or more points while the Mountaineers fall into a negative situation as we play against road teams coming off an upset win as a home underdog of seven or more, in weeks 5 through 9. This situation is 32-8 ATS (80 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (192) Oklahoma St. Cowboys

Taking big underdogs in college football can be a stress maker if they get behind big and have to force a comeback but the one strategy that should always be in play when backing a large underdog is that it needs to be a team that can put a lot of points on the board, thus keeping the backdoor open at all times. UAB is one of those teams. We played against the Blazers last week and won simply because they were favored when they should not have been. Now they are a huge underdog and while they take a big step up in class, look at the second game of the season when they went to Starkville and lost to Mississippi St. by just 13 points while scoring 34. UAB has been outgained only once all season and that was by a mere three yards as they actually outgained the Bulldogs 548-516. This is also a play against Arkansas and as good as it looked against Alabama two weeks ago, it got stuck in neutral last week against Georgia even though it still won the yardage battle. Look for the Razorbacks to go on cruise control for this one as they are coming off three tough games and have Mississippi St. on deck. Here, we play on road underdogs in the second half of the season that are averaging between 5.6 and 6.2 yppl going up against teams allowing between 5.6 and 6.2 yppl. This situation is 31-7 ATS (81.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (157) UAB Blazers

After winning just two games last season, South Florida has surpassed that win total through its first seven games and is coming off a huge confidence boosting victory last week. Trailing Tulsa 27-7 at halftime, the Bulls outscored the Golden Hurricane 31-3 in the second half to produce the biggest come-from-behind victory in school history. Those 31 points were more points scored than any of the previous five complete games and that is big to carry over here. Going back, the Bulls are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games after trailing their previous game by 17 or more points at the half. The Bearcats are coming off a win over horrid SMU to improve to 3-3. It was a big win as it snapped a three-game skid, all by blowouts, and while it can bring some confidence back, this Cincinnati team is not very good. There is something to be said about coaches getting teams prepared in different situations and one of those is playing on the road. It is safe to say that Bulls head coach Willie Taggart knows how to do it as since his days at Western Kentucky, his teams are an incredible 23-3 ATS on the road. And the home field edge is not great for Cincinnati as the Bearcats are playing all their 2014 home games at Paul Brown Stadium while Nippert Stadium is undergoing an $86-million renovation and expansion project. Cincinnati is playing with revenge from lost at USF last year but this is too many points to be laying and the Bearcats are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games following a win of more than 20 points. 10* (111) South Florida Bulls

Thursday nights in Blacksburg aren't what they used to be when Virginia Tech was a perennial top ten team but this is still a very tough place to play and Miami will be challenged. The Hurricanes should be able to meet that challenge however as they are the better team right now and it isn't really that close. The Hurricanes are coming off a bye week following a demolition of Cincinnati in their most recent game and they match up just as good here. The Hokies are struggling on both sides of the ball. Coming off a game in which it rushed for just 26 yards on 22 carries last Thursday against Pittsburgh, Virginia Tech is shuffling its starting offensive line and that is never a good thing. On the other side, ACC Preseason 1st Team defensive tackle Luther Maddy needs surgery on his injured knee and will miss the remainder of the season, and linebacker Chase Williams, the team's leading tackler, will miss the game after suffering a knee injury at Pittsburgh. The latter is bad news for Virginia Tech that will try and stop Duke Johnson who has 787 yards and six touchdowns while averaging 7.2 ypc. The Hokies were fortunate last year to miss Johnson, who was out the final five games with a broken ankle but they are not as lucky this season. Virginia Tech has been great in this spot as a home underdog over the years but this is a different Virginia Tech team so those past streaks do not mean much in this one. The Hurricanes are part of a solid situation as we play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 after covering the spread in two out of their last three games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. This situation is 44-18 ATS (71 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (107) Miami Hurricanes

Two of the three remaining undefeated teams in Sun Belt Conference action take the field tonight with the winner still in the mix for the conference championship and the loser likely out. The reason for that is that neither team plays first place Georgia Southern this season so the winner is likely going to have to win out because of the Panthers remaining schedule. Louisiana won for us last week as the offense got going and I expect that to continue. Louisiana came into the season as the preseason favorite to win the conference and after a rough stretch, it is finally hitting its stride and is still the team to beat with the dynamic Terrance Broadway at quarterback. The Cajuns have put up 34 points in each of the last two games so they are playing at their highest level of the season. Arkansas St. meanwhile has also been hitting its stride on offense, scoring 28 and 52 points in its two conference games as quarterback Fredi Knighten has been outstanding in his own right. Both of these defenses have been playing at a high level but a lot of that has to do with the opposition and both will be taking a big step up in class here. And it is those defenses that is keeping this total low as both has numbers in the 60's in their last game and now they are catching it in the low 50's. Last year saw an O/U of 69 so we are seeing a two-touchdown adjustment for a Louisiana team that has not changed and an Arkansas St. team that does have new personnel but has a new head coach that has an offense mind. Weather will not be an issue. 10* Over (101) Arkansas St. Red Wolves/(102) Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns

San Diego St. is 3-3 on the season and has yet to win consecutive games but this a great spot to finally begin a winning streak. The Aztecs have been a great second half team the last two years as they started 3-3 in both 2012 and 2013 and went on to go 10-2 after the midway point in those season and we can expect more of the same this season. A big reason is the fact they returned only 10 starters from last season so it has taken some time for the chemistry to come around and they are coming off their most dominating game of the season, outgaining New Mexico by 204 total yards. Hawaii is also coming off a win and its most dominating game of the season, outgaining Wyoming by 191 total yards. But that was at home. The road and Hawaii mix like oil and vinegar as it has lost 15 consecutive games off the island and while it has covered seven of those games, the number makes the difference. Hawaii is 2-5 ATS in those games when getting only single digits and I feel this spread is way too low as well. The Warriors have put up only 26 points in their two road games combined while San Diego St. is allowing just 12 ppg at home. San Diego St. is 6-0 ATS in its last six games as a favorite between 3.5 and 10 points. 10* (406) San Diego St. Aztecs

We played against Northern Illinois last week and it paid off as the Huskies lost outright against Central Michigan as more than a touchdown underdog. It was mentioned that they are not the same team as in years past and continue to struggle as the offense has been unable to generate points but I think that finally changes here. Because of the struggles, we get to buy Northern Illinois low and feel the spot is ideal this week. Miami is coming off a loss at Akron last week which came after its first win of the season against Massachusetts prior to that. That victory actually snapped a 21-game losing streak so while it was big to end the enormous slide, clearly little momentum was gained from it. Northern Illinois has lost consecutive regular season games only once since 2010, going 4-1 following a defeat and the one time it did lose a back-to-back, the second came against Wisconsin. Miami s 4-13 ATS in its last 17 games off a road cover where it lost as an underdog and we play against underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points with a winning percentage of .250 or worse after having lost four or five out of their last six games, playing a team with a winning record. This situation is 46-19 ATS (70.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (318) Northern Illinois Huskies

Here is another situation, like Thursday, where I think the wrong team is favored and it is largely based on recent results which is what most gamblers usually only remember. Middle Tennessee is coming off a blowout loss against Marshall which has been the case for most teams playing the Thundering Herd and that snapped its two-game winning streak. Meanwhile, UAB defeated North Texas by 35 points but was actually outgained by the Mean Green. The Blazers took advantage of five turnovers, three of which were directly returned for touchdowns. That victory, along with the Middle Tennessee loss to Marshall, is what is driving this line and it is a rarity for UAB to be favored on the road as it has happened only six times the last eight years. Coming back home is big for the Blue Raiders as they are 3-0 here this season and are 10-1 in their last 11 home games. Additionally, Middle Tennessee has won seven of its last nine games after a loss while going 6-1 ATS in its last seven games following an ATS loss. On the other side, UAB is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 games after scoring 31 points or more in two straight games. Middle Tennessee has a chance to improve to 4-1 in the conference and can ill afford a loss in a winnable game to keep bowl hopes alive. 10* (366) Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders

We made a bad call on Texas A&M last week as we should have stuck to our guns from the previous week after saying the Aggies have not defeated any team of note with arguably the best win coming against Arkansas. The season is starting to slip away already and it can only get worse here as the situation could not be worse for Texas A&M heading into a hornets nest. Alabama is not the same Alabama we are accustomed to, at least that is what we are hearing from the talking heads but I have to disagree with that assessment. The Crimson Tide have struggled away from home as it was in a tight battle against West Virginia in the Georgia Dome, lost at Mississippi and then won at Arkansas by just one point. They have dominated at home however, winning by a combined 135-33 and while this game will be the biggest test, I expect the Tide to pass with flying colors as a return home is just what they need. Texas A&M is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games against teams averaging 425 or more ypg while going 1-11 ATS in its last 12 road games after gaining 450 or more ypg in three straight games. Alabama meanwhile is 7-1 ATS in its last eight SEC games against teams off a double-digit loss. 10* (370) Alabama Crimson Tide

Rankings are based on opinions from some people who should not even be giving opinions. That is the case here for Utah and taking nothing away from the Utes and their 4-1 record, but they should not be ranked. One win came against Idaho St. of the FCS, another case against Fresno St. which is having a very disappointing season. The other two victories would have been considered marquee victories early in the season but Michigan and UCLA have been majors busts this season. The Utes have been outgained the last three games and that is a major concern. Oregon St. comes in with an identical 4-1 record with the lone loss coming at USC in blowout fashion. While the Beavers schedule has been nothing special either, it needs to be noted that they have won the yardage battle in their four victories, and by a lot. Oregon St. is 17-5 ATS in its last 22 games coming off a conference win by seven points or less while going 11-1 ATS in its last 12 games with a line between +3 and -3 coming off a bye. Additionally, we play against road favorites that are averaging 34 or more ppg going up against teams allowing between 21 and 28 ppg, after a win by six or less points. This situation is 30-7 ATS (81.1 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (308) Oregon St. Beavers

Louisiana was the preseason pick to win the Sun Belt Conference by most and sitting at 1-0, it is certainly in the mix. The Cajuns will try to keep pace with Georgia Southern which is already off to a 4-0 start and this could be the statement game they need. They have yet to cover a game against an FBS opponent, most recently sneaking by Georgia St. by three points as a 16-point favorite. Back-to-back blowout losses on the road against Mississippi and Boise St. preceded that which is a big reason they are underdogs in this spot. Texas St. also comes in at 1-0 in the conference following its win over Idaho in its last game. The Vandals are arguably the worst team in the FBS and are 0-6 yet the Bobcats had a tough time, winning by just five points and getting outgained by 57 yards. They have actually been outgained by all four FBS opponents so despite the 2-2 record, things seem to be skewed. Louisiana is the most experienced team in the conference on both sides of the ball and that will show tonight. The Cajuns are is 13-4 ATS in their last 17 road games versus teams averaging 425 or more ypg while going 6-0 ATS in their last six road games against teams averaging 31 or more ppg. Meanwhile, the Bobcats are 0-4 ATS in their last four games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game. 10* (301) Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns

We played against Texas A&M last week as it suffered its first loss of the season at Mississippi St. that was a tough spot for the Aggies as it was their first true test of the season and while they failed, I expect them to bounce back this week. A big factor here is the timing of this game as it is a night start at College Station which makes for an even bigger atmosphere. Typically with a big game on deck, we would not go this route but even with a game at Alabama next Saturday, Texas A&M knows it needs to bounce back here. Speaking of Alabama, the Rebels are coming off a huge upset of the Crimson Tide last Saturday to move to 5-0 on the season. They jumped all the way from 11th in the nation into a tie for 3rd with Mississippi St. in the AP Poll and that is a pretty lofty move. That isn't saying it wasn't well deserved because of the upset but I don't think this team is a top five team at the time. Add to the fact the letdown factor and Mississippi should be in ripe shape for its first loss. The Aggies are playing their first true hole game since September 13th which only adds to the edge they will have here. Texas A&M will be ready and after winning the last two meetings the last two years in Mississippi by three points each, the Aggies get the job done at home is easier fashion by what many think will be an upset but that is not the case. 10* (188) Texas A&M Aggies

We snuck out a win with Michigan last week as it stayed within the number but still suffered its third straight loss to fall to 2-4 on the season. The time has come where the Wolverines are in a true must win scenario or the season will be ready to spiral downhill quickly as they are on the cusp on that right now. I like the fact they have lost two straight home games as it should certainly have them stoked to get a win plus it gives us some excellent value with the line. They will also be out for revenge from last year's overtime loss almost a year ago to the day which was the fourth straight loss in this series. Penn St. was off last week as it tried to regroup from its 23-point loss at home against Northwestern two weeks ago and the bye definitely came art the right time I just don't know how much it cam help. This is the first road game in a month for the Nittany Lions and while they did win at Rutgers where Michigan just lost, it was far from dominating as it was a game that could have gone either way. Michigan has rival Michigan St. on deck but with everything at stake, that matters little especially considering the Wolverines will be entering their first bye week of the season. The Wolverines are 5-2 ATS in their last seven home games against teams with a winning road record and they add to that with a possible season saving win on Saturday. 10* (194) Michigan Wolverines

The Chippewas picked up a big win last time out as they crushed Ball St. by 18 points and while that margin of victory may not seem huge, they fact they outgained the Bobcats by 280 total yards was dominating. It was the second game that running back Thomas Rawls and wide receiver Titus Davis were back in the lineup and it made a huge difference as the two accounted for 426 of their 467 total yards. I expect them to use that game as a momentum boost to try and snap their two-game losing streak against the Huskies. This line may seem low to some for Northern Illinois considering it was favored by 26 points last week against Kent St. and last season, it was favored by 14.5 points at Central Michigan but this line is too big in my opinion. This is not the same Huskies team we are used to as the loss of quarterback Jordan Lynch is still being felt. The offense has not been clicking like it used to and scoring only 17 points last week against the Golden Flashes is a big concern. After defeating Presbyterian out of the FCS, the Huskies have struggled in all of their other games including a win against UNLV that needed a late touchdown to pull away. They are outgaining FBS opponent by just 55 yards total on the season. Momentum is not on their side as the Huskies are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game while the Chippewas are 14-5-1 ATS in their last 20 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. 10* (177) Central Michigan Chippewas

It has been a very rough stretch for North Carolina as it has lost its last three games by a combined 61 points and it has not been kind to its backers as it has yet to cover a game this season. The Tar Heels are 0-5 against the number counting their game against Liberty of the FCS and they definitely are not getting much support here. The opportunity here though sets up very well for a bounceback even though they are facing their toughest opponent of the season. Notre Dame is coming off a huge win over Stanford as it scored the game winning touchdown with just one minute left to move to 5-0, moving it into 6th place in the most recent AP Poll. If that isn't a spot for a letdown, nothing is and making matters even tougher this week is that the Irish travel to top ranked Florida St. next week so they are in a letdown/lookahead scenario this week. The defense has been outstanding as Notre Dame has yet to allow more than 17 points but the Tar Heel have the ability to score a lot and this could be the one game that Notre Dame won't be 100 percent vested. The Tar Heels are 28-12-1 ATS in their last 41 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game while going 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a double-digit loss at home. Meanwhile, Notre Dame is 2-5 ATS in its last seven home games against teams with a losing road record. 10* (175) North Carolina Tar Heels

The quarterback situation for both San Diego St. and New Mexico is not good as both starters are likely out for this one but that actually helps us with this total. Aztecs quarterback Quinn Kaehler missed the last game against Fresno St. and the offense suffered as they put up just 270 total yards as backup Nick Bawden had a horrific game. The extra prep time going into this one can only help and the opponent is a benefit as well. The fact that New Mexico allowed just nine points last week against UTSA can be considered an anomaly as prior to that, the Lobos had allowed at least 31 points in each of their first four games. The defense is still a very porous unit overall as they are ranked 116th in total defense, allowing a whopping 504.2 ypg while giving up 33.6 ppg. On the other side, Lobos quarterback Cole Gautsche came back after missing significant time only to leave once again. Backup Lamar Jordan was efficient once again but he will not be asked to win as the triple-option pistol ground attack is ranked fourth nationally with an average of 322.4 ypg on the ground. San Diego St. has been decent on defense but it is skewed by its first game against Northern Arizona of the FCS when it allowed just 312 yards and seven points. This is by far the lowest total each team has seen this season and while the quarterback situation is aiding that, the Aztecs have gone under is every game while New Mexico has gone under in two straight so we are getting value based on that as well. 10* Over (107) San Diego St. Aztecs/(108) New Mexico Lobos

BYU got knocked off last Friday for the first time this season as it lost to Utah St. as a 21-point favorite. The Cougars have now dropped three straight games against the number, all as double-digit favorites but they are in a completely different role this Thursday. Speaking of losing, BYU has to deal with losing quarterback Taysom Hill for the season after he suffered a broken leg against the Aggies and it was all downhill from there as replacement Christian Stewart was horrible. Coming in non-prepared like that is tough for any quarterback but even though this week is a short week, Stewart at least will have taken reps with the first team so the adjustment will be a lot better now. Central Florida won last Thursday over Houston as it forced a late turnover to pull out the win and improve to 2-2 on the season. Now the Knights are sandwiched in-between two conference games and while playing under the Thursday night lights is big, they are not the better team here, even with Hill out. The quarterback situation in Central Florida is just as bas if not worse so the Knights are being forced to run which is the strength of the Cougars defense. We are getting a huge line edge here also as the loss of hill has adjusted this line by over 10 points which is simply too much. The Cougars are 13-1 ATS in their last 14 games as regular season underdogs while going 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss. The value is too hard to pass up here. 10* (103) BYU Cougars

We played against Boise St. last Saturday and it worked out for us as the Broncos lost at Air Force as big favorites. The main reason they lost was that they committed seven turnovers and they were unable to work back from a 28-0 deficit. Boise St. outgained the Falcons 467-335 so while it was the better team on the day, it was not the better team on the scoreboard. All that does is set the Broncos up this week for one of our "misleading public reversals" and it gets even better. Nevada won last week at San Jose St. 21-10 but it was on the wrong side of the yardages as it was outgained by 190 total yards. The Wolf Pack were fortunate to win the turnover battle 3-0, one of which was returned for a touchdown. This adds to the Boise St. reversal and the two misleading scores help us immensely this week as we are catching a great number and one that is smaller than it should be. Looking at the history of this series and you will see that Nevada has covered the last five meetings but Boise St. won four of those and the spread wins were based on big lines, not like the one we have here. Boise St. is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games after a game with a turnover margin of -3 or worse while going 7-1 ATS in their last eight games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game. Meanwhile, the Wolf Pack are 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 games following a win. 10* (415) Boise St. Broncos

After a perfect 3-0 start, Pittsburgh has lost its last two games against Iowa and Akron and both of those were as favorites. Losing to Iowa was a downer as the Panthers outgained the Hawkeyes by 124 total yards but were unable to hold onto a 10-point lead. Last week's loss to the Zips was inexcusable and it was clear that Pittsburgh did not come to play after the previous loss but the defeat last week can now serve as a wake up call. A loss this week could be devastating and head coach Paul Chryst could have a tough time not losing his team. The Panthers are on a bye so there are now no excuses. Virginia was picked to finish dead last in the ACC Coastal Division but it is off to a surprising 3-2 start which is already one more win than all of last season. Even the losses weren't bad as the Cavaliers fell to UCLA and BYU by eight points each and going back to last season, they have now covered seven straight games. What that does is cause this line to be overadjusted which is certainly the case here as Virginia is a favorite against a power conference team for the first time since being favored by two points over Duke last season. Virginia is 0-5-1 ATS in its last six games as a single digit favorite while Pittsburgh falls into one of the best college situations around as we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in conference games, off a upset loss as a double digit home favorite. This situation is 39-11 ATS (78 percent) since 1992. 10* (331) Pittsburgh Panthers

Michigan been in the news a lot this week but for all of the wrong reasons. Whether it was because of mishandling of injuries or demonstrations to fire the athletic director or talk about the head coach needing to be let go, it is not very pleasant in Ann Arbor right now. This is where players need to recognize what is going on and play like they should play and not like the way they did last week in a home loss against Minnesota. Hitting the road after a three-game homestand is just what this team needs right now so the situation is in the Wolverines favor. They have dropped four straight against the number since destroying Appalachian St. opening week and that is putting the majority on the other side. Rutgers is 4-1 to start the season but it does not own a marquee victory as its toughest opponent was Penn St. and that resulted in the lone defeat. The Scarlet Knights have been outgained in three of five games this season including one against Howard from the FCS. Michigan meanwhile has outgained four of five opponents so despite the records, it can be argued Michigan is still the much better team and that is hard to disagree with. While Hoke is getting a lot of grief, and rightfully so, he has been great in getting his teams to bounce back off poor performances. The Wolverines managed a mere 171 yards of offense against Minnesota last week and in his career, Hoke is 7-0 ATS after gaining 125 or less passing yards in last game and 14-2 ATS in 16 road games after gaining 100 or less rushing yards last game. 10* (399) Michigan Wolverines

Navy is off to a disappointing 2-3 start following consecutive losses the last two Saturday's. Both of those came at home no less where they are 0-2 but the Midshipmen have won both of their road games while outgaining both opponents in doing so. They were favored then and they are favored again here for good reason and they will come in hungry and look to avoid matching their loss total from all of last season. We won with Air Force last week as it was aided by seven Boise St. turnovers. Had that not occurred, chances are the Falcons would not have won outright but I feel that puts them in a tough spot here against a team they have had trouble with over the years. This has been a tightly contested series over the last few years but Navy has covered 13 of the last 16 meetings. The Falcons have already surpassed their win total from last season but last week can be considered a fluke and a won over Nicholls St. was far from impressive. In the other victory over Georgia Southern, Air Force was outgained there also and the good fortunes cannot last all season. Navy is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 road games against teams allowing 3.25 or fewer ypc so it knows how to adjust. Additionally, the Midshipmen are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 road games after allowing 475 or more total yards in their previous game. Meanwhile, Air Force is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games after one or more consecutive wins against the spread and 3-14 ATS in its last 17 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in its previous game. 10* (373) Navy Midshipmen

Louisville is coming off a less than stellar effort last week against Wake Forest. Or was it? The Cardinal won by only 10 points and were actually trailing in the fourth quarter but a lot of that can be attributed to three lost fumbles, two short made field goals and two missed field goals. They did not allow an offensive touchdown as the only time Wake Forest got into the endzone was because of a fumble recovery. Louisville allowed only 10 first downs and 100 total yards of offense and overall it is ranked third in total defense (225.2 ypg) and ninth in scoring defense (14 ppg). I don't see that changing here against a Syracuse offense that is struggling to score. We were on the Orange last week and it was not a good call as they were able to keep it as close as they did thanks to a 5-1 edge in turnovers. Syracuse put up a decent 429 total yards but could muster only 15 points and six of those came on an interception return for a touchdown. It scored 40 points at Central Michigan but we can now call that an anomaly because the Orange have scored only 52 points in regulation in their other three games combined. Overall Syracuse is 48th in total offense but just 85th in scoring offense so there is definitely a disconnect somewhere and facing the toughest defense to date won't help matters. Louisville quarterback Will Gardner is questionable but that is not a concern at all. The Cardinals have a great situation on their side as we play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games. This situation is 35-11 ATS (76.1 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (309) Louisville Cardinals

At first glace, grabbing over three touchdowns with a 4-0 Arizona team seems like a good take but I don't think that will be nearly enough in this spot for the Wildcats. Arizona was off last week following its improbable comeback against California where it trailed by 18 points going into the fourth quarter and eventually won on a last second 47-yard touchdown pass. While it has had time to recover from that jubilation, it is coming into a tough environment for this Thursday night clash. The Wildcats won their lone road game but that came by only three points at Texas-San Antonio and this is a whole different animal. Oregon meanwhile is also coming off a bye following a closer than expected win at Washington St. two weeks ago as it won by just a touchdown as a 23-point chalk. Now the Ducks are back home where they have won 10 straight games and playing with a lot of added motivation. That comes from the 42-16 drubbing they took from Arizona is Tucson last season which closed the door on an outside shot at the National Championship. Now it is revenge time and Oregon will not let off the gas as it will want nothing more than to return the favor. The Ducks have numerous situations in their favor with the strongest being to play on home favorites of 21.5 to 31 points that are averaging 6.4 or more yppl, after gaining 6.75 or more yppl in two consecutive games. This situation is 30-4 ATS (88.2 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Meanwhile, Oregon is 17-3 ATS in its last 20 games after gaining 7.25 or more yppl in two consecutive games while Arizona is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games against teams averaging 450 or more ypg. 10* (308) Oregon Ducks

We played against Notre Dame and won when it could cover against Purdue and once again, it comes in with an inflated number. The Irish are off to a 3-0 start and have looked good in doing so but not as good as you may think. Wins over Rice and Purdue are far from good wins as both programs are rebuilding while Michigan is certainly not the same team we thought they would be sitting at 2-2 following an upset loss against Utah last week. Now the Irish hit the highway again for the second straight game on a neutral field and not to mention it has a revenge game at home against Stanford next week. Both the offense and defense have been solid but playing the easy schedule thus far has skewed those averages. The score shows a 14-point loss against Maryland last week but the game was a different story as Syracuse outgained the Terrapins by 220 total yards. The Orange were done in by two turnovers, one of which was an interception returned 88 yards for a touchdown as well as a 90-yard touchdown pass by Maryland in the first quarter. Plays like that cannot be allowed in order to win and Syracuse found that out the hard way. Now it goes down to New Jersey where its fan base travels very well in hopes of pulling off the upset. They have 15 starters back form last year's bowl winning season and after the near debacle against Villanova, the Orange have looked very good on both sides of the ball. Syracuse is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games after outgaining opponent by 175 or more total yards in two consecutive games. 10* (166) Syracuse Orange

We lost a tough one last week in going against Duke and while the final score of 47-13 may not sound like that is the case, the game was not as bad as that outcome is. Tulane was outgained by only 46 total yards but five turnovers and 13 penalties killed the Green Wave and it was arguably the most deceiving final score of the weekend. 21 of Duke's points came off turnovers including two interception returns for scores. While the Blue Devils are 4-0, this is a team I am not sold on yet and a lot of that has to do with playing the 190th ranked schedule in the country. A road win at Troy has been the only highway trip and things will be a lot tougher here. Miami lost at Nebraska last week to fall to 2-2 with the other loss coming at Louisville so the Hurricanes have played in some tough venues. Now they are back home where they have won 10 of their last 11 games and are playing for some serious revenge following last year's 18-point beatdown in Durham. Miami is a different team now as it is a lot healthier than it was during that trip to Duke including having Duke Johnson back at running back. Look for him to have a monster game against the nation's 92nd ranked rushing defense which is actually worse than that based on the cupcake schedule. Freshman quarterback Brad Kaaya is getting more comfortable and he is actually 30th in the nation in passing efficiency. Duke has won and covered six straight road games going back to the start of last season and because of the public love, we are catching a smaller than anticipated number which we take advantage of. 10* (180) Miami Hurricanes

Since opening the season with a loss against Mississippi, Boise St. has rolled to three straight wins and covers but let's face it, the opposition has been pretty bad. The Broncos had easy home wins over Colorado St. and UL-Lafayette but despite a 17-point win over Connecticut on the road, they outgained the Huskies by just two total yards. It comes as no secret that Boise St. is a better home team than road team and laying this type of number has been a problem as Boise St. is 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games when favored by double-digits against an opponent that is coming off a win. Air Force defeated Georgia St. two weeks ago and while that victory isn't saying much, a win is a win and playing with two weeks to prepare is even bigger. This is the first home game for Air Force since opening the season against Nicholls St. back in August so the Falcons were will extra pumped here against a quality foe. They are also playing with revenge following last season's 22-point loss at Boise and they bring in a perfect 6-0 ATS record coming off a bye week when getting fewer than 19 points. Additionally, we play on underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points with a winning percentage between .600 and .800 that are coming off a no-cover where the team won as a favorite, playing a team with a winning record. This situation is 33-9 ATS (78.6 percent) over the last 10 seasons. The Broncos are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games following a win of more than 20 points while going 1-7 ATS in their last eight games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. 10* (198) Air Force Falcons

Stanford is off a bye last week which followed its easy win over Army at home the previous week. The Cardinal now hit the road for the first time this season and while that normally could be as cause for concern, the situation at hand totally negates that. Prior to Army, the Cardinal lost against USC and it can ill afford to start Pac 12 play at 0-2 especially with the challenges that lie ahead in the second half of the season. While we are not overly keen about laying more than a touchdown on the road, Stanford will show that it is far superior and expose the Huskies. Washington has not been very impressive this season as it opened with a one point win at Hawaii and then defeated Eastern Washington of the FCS by only seven points. The Huskies took care of Illinois by 25 points but last week fell behind against Georgia St. 14-0 before having to rally back for the win. They lost a ton from its offense last season and while the point totals have been big, this will be by far the best defense it has seen this season. Stanford is ranked first in the country in total defense and that is more impressive knowing it help the potent Trojans in check. Stanford knows the task here will not be easy as it defeated Washington by only three points last year and lost here in Seattle back in 2012 by four points. Here, we play on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points that are allowing 16 or fewer ppg against teams allowing between 21 and 28 ppg, after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game. This situation is 38-12 ATS (76 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (173) Stanford Cardinal

Texas is coming off a much needed bye week as after opening the season with a blowout win over North Texas, it has lost two straight games against BYU and UCLA. Those teams remain undefeated so while losses are bad, those aren't necessarily bad losses and the Longhorns take a big step down in class here. The Longhorns have back-to-back games against Baylor and Oklahoma immediately after this game and while that could normally trigger a lookahead, that won't happen here with Charlie Strong at the helm as his teams have gone 12-3 ATS in 15 games following a loss and the last thing they want is a three-game losing streak heading into the game against the Bears. Kansas is 2-1 for the second straight season but it went on to lose eight of its last nine games. The Jayhawks have defeated SE Missouri St. and Central Michigan, not exactly the best of opposition and they were both very unimpressive victories. Kansas has lost its Big 12 opener each of the last four years with three of the losses coming by 48, 40 and 38 points and a similar result here would not be surprising. The quarterback play has been atrocious from Montell Cozart sand now her will be facing a tough defense that has eight starters back from last season and is now healthy. On the other side, quarterback Tyrone Swoopes has directed the offense the last two games, completing 44 of 65 passes for 377 yards. His completion percentage (67.7) ranks No. 19 in the nation and he has committed just one turnover in his two starts. Texas has dominated this series as the Longhorns have won all 11 matchups in Big 12 play and have outscored Kansas by an average of 42.8-14.4 points per game in that stretch. 10* (175) Texas Longhorns

Because of Appalachian St.'s loss to Southern Mississippi, we are getting some value with the Mountaineers. They rallied from a 14-0 deficit to nearly tie the game but missed the extra point because of a block in the final seconds to lose by one point. Appalachian St. actually outgained the Golden Eagles 455-329 but costly turnovers, three missed field goals sand penalties did it in. Five of eight drives that went into Southern Mississippi territory resulted in no points. Georgia Southern meanwhile is coming off a rout against South Alabama to square its record at 2-2. The Eagles have covered all four games and are now 8-0 against the spread since 2010 but are now favored against an FBS opponent by more than one point for the first time every and it is over two touchdowns no less. This team could be 4-0 overall as losses against NC State and Georgia Tech came by a combined five points so this is no doubt a very good team but the Eagles are in unchartered territory with this line and with it being a rival game that goes back to the SoCon days, it adds more for the underdog. While Georgia Southern gets the accolades for being a great rushing team, the Mountaineers are right there. Heading into conference play, Appalachian St. ranks third in the Sun Belt Conference in rushing with 212.3 ypg. Since the beginning of the 2010 season, the Mountaineers are 20-2 when they run the ball 40 or more times and 11-19 when they run the ball less than 40 times. Look for a much closer than expected game. 10* (103) Appalachian St. Mountaineers

After a 2-0 start, Wyoming ran into the buzzsaw of Oregon last week and fell to the Ducks by 34 points. In actuality, it was not that bad of a loss as the Cowboys were outgained by only 117 total yards and were down by only six points late in the second quarter before Oregon was able to pull away. Wyoming put up 439 total yards of offense against a very strong and underrated Ducks defense so they have to be happy coming back home following their best output of the season. This is a brand new system that new head coach Craig Bohl has brought in so it would take some time and is clicking around the right time. Florida Atlantic picked up its first win of the season last week at home against Tulsa in a surprising blowout. To their credit, the Owls opened the season with games against Nebraska and Alabama so getting blown out in those games was nothing to be ashamed of. I don't like the situation here though for them as they travel out west, furthest they have gone in a decade, with their conference opener taking place next week. They have been strong road underdogs the last couple years but they have been double-digit dogs in 14 of their last 17 road games so clearly this is a different scenario. Wyoming is 15-4 ATS in its last 19 games after allowing 7.25 or more yppl in their previous game and falls into an excellent situation where we play on teams (after scoring 17 points or less in three straight games against opponent after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game. This situation is 49-20 ATS (71 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (342) Wyoming Cowboys

BYU is 3-0 for the first time since 2001 when it opened the season 12-0 and it has a chance to go deep again this year. The Cougars did not cover their last game but they have dominated all three games, winning the yardage battle by at least 158 total yards each time out. They have the benefit of a couple extra days off for this game and they have had this one circled as they went to Virginia in the season opener last season and lost by three points despite outgaining the Cavaliers by 139 total yards. Revenge will certainly be in play this week and while BYU has Utah St. on deck, it is not for another two weeks. Virginia has looked very good through three games as it narrowly lost to UCLA on opening weekend and followed that up with two wins including an upset of Louisville last week to open ACC play. Considering the Cavaliers won two games all of last season, it has already been a success but now Virginia hits the road for the first time this season. It has won only once in its last nine road games and going back, the Cavaliers are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 non-conference games. We look for BYU to control the line of scrimmage here and have success running the ball which sets up solid situation as we play on home favorites that are averaging 230 or more rushing ypg going up against a team averaging between 100 and 140 rushing ypg. This situation is 42-17 ATS (71.2 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (368) BYU Cougars

There are very few marquee games this weekend but this can classify as one even though the Gators are not ranked. They are coming off a very fortunate win over Kentucky at home last Saturday and while many will look at that final score and think they will not have a chance here, that was a difficult spot with Alabama on deck. On top of that, Kentucky is a much improved team and if Alabama had the Wildcats last week, a closer than expected outcome would not have been surprising there either. The Crimson Tide have been cruising along to start the season but they have failed to cover against some inferior competition. They have not covered a game since last November, going 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven games and we are catching a good number here that is above two touchdowns. Florida has a new offense and it has looked very good through two games and while it has not faced a defense like Alabama yet, that stop unit is not up to form yet so the Gators can move the ball here. The Tide defense has allowed more yards in each of the last three years including over 100 more ypg last season than they did in 2011. Florida is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games after two consecutive games with a turnover margin of +2 or better while Alabama is 11-28 ATS in its last 39 home games after two consecutive game where they committed one or less turnovers. This is the first meeting since 2011 and Florida is getting the most points in this series since the early 90's. 10* (357) Florida Gators

Akron last played two weeks ago at Penn St. and while it was competitive for the majority of the game, the Nittany Lions were able to pull away and avoid the backdoor cover. The Zips extra prep time is big here as they have the opportunity to work on things to slow down the Marshall offense and their defense is good enough to do so. After suffering though three straight 1-11 seasons, the Zips went 5-7 last year including wins in four of their last five games. With seven starters back on both sides of the ball, this team should continue to improve. Marshall is 3-0 following another blowout victory, this time over Ohio as it shellacked the Bobcats by 30 points and outgained them by 328 total yards. This team is no secret as the Thundering Herd came in as one of the possible non-BCS conference teams to run the table and go undefeated. They are overvalued here however as the are a different team on the road than they are at home. Marshall is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games as a favorite of more than a touchdown off a non-conference game while going 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games as a road favorite. Meanwhile, the Zips are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games following a bye week. Akron falls into a great situation as we play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after allowing 6.25 or more yppl in their previous game, with an experienced quarterback returning as starter, in the first month of the season. This situation is 33-11 ATS (75 percent) since 1992. 10* (312) Akron Zips

The Friday night football schedule has been pretty lame as far as entertainment goes and this Friday should be no exception with two of the worst teams from the AAC squaring off. Both Connecticut and South Florida are 1-2 heading into their conference openers with both of those victories coming against FCS teams and by very narrow margins to say the least. This game looks like a tossup as far as the winner but we can expect another boring contest as far as schemes go and this total is still too high for this matchup. The offenses for both dies have been horrible as the Huskies come in ranked 115th in the nation, averaging 289.3 ypg while the Bulls are not much better at 113th, averaging 300.3 ypg. While it can be said the opposing defenses have something to do with it, it comes down to the inexperience of the quarterbacks and very poor offensive line play. Both sides are willing to grind it out and not take chances that can hurt the offense. The last four meetings in this series have stayed well under the total with the highest scoring game reaching just 35 points. South Florida is 8-0 to the under in its last eight games after going over the total last game while going 7-0 to the under in its last seven games against teams with a losing record. Meanwhile Connecticut is 4-0 to the under in its last four games following a double-digit home loss while going 15-5 to the under in its last 20 games as a road underdog of seven points or less. Despite what we have seen this year, this is the highest posted total over the last five meetings. 10* Under (305) Connecticut Huskies/(306) South Florida Bulls

Auburn comes into Thursday night riding the longest ATS winning streak in the country as it has now covered 13 straight games going back to last season. That alone is making this line bigger than it should be and from a pure power ranking standpoint, I have this game as Auburn being a six-point favorite on a neutral field so this line is a touchdown higher than it should be based on venue. The tigers have rolled to wins over Arkansas and San Jose St. but now this is their toughest opponent to date and it is their first road game of the season on top of it. Kansas City is also 2-0 but it failed to cover either of its games against Stephen F. Austin and Iowa St. so that is also playing into this number. The Wildcats are not home underdogs very often but they have taken advantage of late as they are 5-1 ATS in their last six games a home pup and even better, they are 12-4 ATS as underdogs the last three seasons. Head coach Bill Snyder continues to get the job done and in his career at Kansas St. he has won 64 of 68 home games against non-conference opponents. Additionally, the Wildcats are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games against teams with a winning record while going 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a bye week. Kansas St. also falls into a great situation where we play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in non-conference games, with an experienced quarterback returning as starter, in the first month of the season. This situation is 130-71 ATS (64.7 percent) since 1992. 10* (304) Kansas St. Wildcats

Purdue went 1-11 last season and while it has already matched that win total this year, the Boilermakers are coming off a disappointing loss last week against Central Michigan. That will certainly have them motivated here as they try to snap a six-game losing skid to rival Notre Dame. The Irish have been on cruise control through their first two games but after winning the last game in the series against Michigan last Saturday night, the first shutout against the Wolverines since 1984, this spells major letdown. This is an interesting matchup from a statistical point of view from last week. Notre Dame was outgained by nine yards against Michigan while Purdue was outgained by seven yards against Central Michigan. Those resulted in two completely different opposite scores as Notre Dame won by 31 points and Purdue lost by 21 points. The difference was turnovers which can change the outcome of a game even if it is played closer than the score shows. The linesmakers are basing this line on the score and not the games so we take advantage of the value. Notre Dame was favored by 17 points at Purdue last year and won by just a touchdown so based on a neutral field change, it is arguably favored by a touchdown more than it should be. The Boilermakers are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a double-digit loss at home while the Irish are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games following a win of more than 20 points. This is also the last meeting in this series after 68 years and even though it will reconvene in 2020, Purdue should be extremely motivated to end their losing skid to the Irish. 10* (179) Purdue Boilermakers

This is similar to one of our other plays where we should see a heavy favorite take no prisoners on its overmatched opponent. Stanford did not get off to the start in the Pac 12 it was hoping for as it lost to USC by a field goal at home. A late game winning touchdown was called back because of a penalty and on the day, the Cardinal outgained the Trojans by 122 total yards so it was the better team on the field last week. They threw for 285 yards but could manage only 10 points but that won't be the case this week. We won with Army against Buffalo last week as the Black Knights built a big lead and needed all of it as they withstood a late Bulls rally to win by eight points. They were outgained by 83 yards and while Army was again solid with its offensive rushing, the fact it gave up 554 total yards is a huge concern. This is the first of three straight road games for Army and the other two are quite winnable so getting down early will but the Black Knights in a corner they won't be able to get out of. As for Stanford, it is off next week so there is no reason to think it will not go all out here and try to fix the scoring issue from last week. And they have done it in the past as the Cardinal are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game. The last time it happened was a three-point loss to USC last season and they won by 50 over California in their next game. 10* (168) Stanford Cardinal

We won with South Alabama last week and we will ride them again this week. The Jaguars went 2-11 in 2012 but closed last year by winning three straight games to finish 6-6 and even though it did not get a bowl game, that should change this year and they will be playing with a chip on their shoulder. This is the first home game of the season for South Alabama and this is by far the most high profile opponent to come to Ladd-Peebles Stadium ever. Mississippi St. comes in a perfect 2-0 but has not really been tested. The Bulldogs shutout Southern Miss which came in on a 1-23 run and then took out UAB last week, they defeated the Blazers by just 13 points and were actually outgained by 32 yards and this was at home. The real clincher in going against Mississippi St. is that it opens SEC action next week at LSU and it is a big revenge spot on top of it as it lost to the Tigers by 33 points last season, easily its worst loss of the year. The Bulldogs have not been favored by this much on the road since 2011 and even though it comes against a Sun Belt Conference team, they have not shown anything to justify it. These team met in Starkville in 2012 and the Jaguars lost by only 20 points and that was part of a 2-11 season. Mississippi St. is 2-10 ATS in it 12 games under Dan Mullin following a two-game homestand while the Jaguars are 6-0 ATS in their last six games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. 10* (158) South Alabama Jaguars

The country watched Michigan go into Notre Dame as a four-point underdog and leave with its tail between its legs after suffering a 31-0 beatdown. That isn't go to deter the public to back the Wolverines most likely but that is just fine with us as we are getting exceptional value based on the score and not the actual game. Michigan actually outgained Notre Dame by nine yards but it had four turnovers that did the damage. The Wolverines will be out to beat up on someone and what better team than Miami Ohio, losers of 18 straight games. The Warhawks have dropped both games this year at home and one was against Eastern Kentucky of the FCS. Competing on the road has been a real issues lately as they have lost games by 46, 38, 34 and 36 points in the four game against BCS conferences and two of those were against Illinois and Kentucky last season which won a combined six games. If Michigan goes out and actually puts forth the expected effort, it can name the score and you can pretty much guarantee it has not forgotten what happened against Akron last season. Here, we play on home favorites of 21.5 or more points that are averaging 4.8 ypc or more going up against a team allowing between 3.5 and 4.3 ypc, after allowing 2.0 or less ypc last game. This situation is 22-3 ATS (88 percent) since 1992 with the average scoring differential being +37.9 ppg. The Wolverines are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a loss of more than 20 points. 10* (120) Michigan Wolverines

We waited on this game to confirm some injury reports. Baylor is getting quarterback Bryce Petty back for this game which is definitely a big boost after he hurt his back in the season opener. He missed the last game against Northwestern St. but he was not needed in the 70-6 win against the FCS Bears. While Petty returns, it is his main targets that we are concerned about and none of them will be in action tonight. Receivers Clay Fuller and Levi Norwood were already out but it is now clear that Antwan Goodley and Corey Coleman will also not play tonight due to leg injuries. All total, that is 3,111 yards, 185 receptions and 26 touchdowns from last season that will not be on the field tonight. Buffalo is coming off a loss last week at Army but it made a gallant effort in trying to come back after trailing by 30 as it scored the final 22 points to lose by eight. The Bulls racked up 554 yards of offense and they will give the Bears their biggest test of the season. Baylor has only four starters back on defense and Buffalo can take advantage as it won't take much on offense to stay within this huge number. This line has gone up because of the Petty news but the other key injuries are not being taken into consideration. This is a revenge game for Buffalo which lost at Baylor last season 70-13 and while the chances of winning are slim, staying within the number are good and even if Baylor does build a lead, Petty will likely exit to stay healthy for the Big XII opener in two weeks. 10* (110) Buffalo Bulls

BYU is coming off a big win over Texas to improve to 2-0 on the season, both wins coming on the road. This is the home opener for the Cougars and based on their lopsided wins, they are laying a bigger than expected number and I feel it will prove to be too big. Houston easily took care of Grambling 47-0 to win its first game of the season following a season opening loss against UTSA. That was a game the Cougars never got in because of turnovers so that 20-point loss is somewhat skewed. Both teams are on the plus side in yardage differentials and it is not as big as everyone thinks. BYU has a +1.7 yppl margin which is solid as anything on the plus side is obviously good but Houston checks in with a +1.4 yppl margin so it is not far behind. BYU won a thriller against Houston last season 47-46 which brings revenge into play as it snapped Houston's undefeated start to the season which was 5-0. The Cougars are 0-9 in their last nine home games against teams playing with revenge. Additionally, BYU is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 games coming off two consecutive road wins since 1992 and it falls into a negative situation where we play against home favorites after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games going up against an opponent after leading in their previous game by 24 or more points at the half. This situation is 32-9 ATS (78 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (105) Houston Cougars

Because bettors have significant short-term memories, lines need to adjusted based on recent results and that is certainly the case here. Duke rolled over Elon last week by 39 points as it outgained the Phoenix by 239 total yards and it now hits the road for the first time this season. While it was a dominating win, Elon was coming off a 2-10 season and breaking in a new head coach. While the Blue Devils were 5-0 on the road last year, none of the wins came by more than what they are favored by this week. Troy meanwhile got pummeled at UAB, losing by 38 points and getting outgained by 218 yards. The Trojans return home where they have had only one losing season the last decade and of their 12 losses over that stretch, only one has been by more than 17 points which came in 2011. I think we will see a different team at Veterans Memorial Stadium where Troy has lost only once in its last 21 home openers. Now Duke comes in as a massive road favorite and it is completely inflated. Last season, the Blue Devils were 13.5-point home favorites against Troy and now they are favored by close to a touchdown more on the road. They were a road favorite twice last season at Memphis and Wake Forest but both of those lines were a touchdown or less. The last time Duke was a road favorite of more than 17 points? You have to go back to 1994. The Trojans are 5-0 ATS in their last five games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game. 10* (362) Troy Trojans

We played against Vanderbilt last Thursday and easily won as the Commodores lost by 30 points against Temple and now they go from 8.5-point favorites to 20-point underdogs in the span of a week. That is what we call overreaction. The loss to the Owls was not a good one but Vanderbilt was outgained by just 73 yards and it was seven turnovers which led to 27 points, many of which came on a short field. Defensively, it was a pretty solid effort from Vanderbilt and that should continue here. Mississippi was on the opposite end of things last week as it defeated Boise St. by 22 points but only outgained the Broncos by 59 yards. The Rebels were up by only one point early in the fourth quarter before a barrage of four touchdowns led to the runaway victory. Two of those came on a short field while another came on a 76-yard bomb so Mississippi was fortunate the game was not closer at the end. Because of the two differing outcomes, the Rebels are now massive favorites on the road and while it is not at the Vanderbilt campus, it is at LP Field in Nashville. Mississippi has been favored by 20 points on the road only once over the last decade which came against Tulane and resulted in a loss and it doesn't deserve to be here against another SEC foe. The Commodores are 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 games following a double-digit loss at home while the Rebels are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games against teams with a losing home record while gong 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games anywhere against teams with a losing record. 10* (348) Vanderbilt Commodores