Sports Picks & Predictions

Fresno St. is coming off a blowout loss against USC, it second straight loss to the Trojans going back to last season's Las Vegas Bowl. The Bulldogs opened up 10-0 last year and were making a run at a BCS Bowl game but a loss at San Jose St. killed that. Now they are trying to move on without quarterback Derek Carr who is now taking snaps with the Oakland Raiders. Saturday was not pretty for the defense as it allowed 701 yards against USC but we should see a huge improvement here as it takes a step down in class. Utah was solid on offense last week against Idaho St. but that should be the case when facing a school from the FCS. Last year, the Utes defeated Weber St. 70-7 only to come back and lose at home the next week against Oregon St. so big wins do not always lead to momentum boosts. Utah has gone 5-7 each of the last two seasons and it brings back 12 starters from last year so there isn't a whole lot of reason to believe it will be vastly improved. The Utes have been a double-digit home favorite over FBS teams four times the last three years, going 1-3 ATS in those games. The Bulldogs need to run the ball to be effective and last week, they gained more yards per rushing play (4.8) than passing play (4.4), which had not happened in a regular-season game since a victory at Nevada during the 2012 season. I like the bounceback angles here as bettors remember last week and ride it. The Utes are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following a win of more than 20 points while the Bulldogs are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following an ATS loss. 10* (337) Fresno St. Bulldogs

South Alabama kicks its season off with a road game at Kent St. as it looks to improve upon last season. The Jaguars went 2-11 in 2012 but closed last year by winning three straight games to finish 6-6 and even though it did not get a bowl game, that should change this year. They bring back 15 starters including nine on an offense that averaged 29.4 ppg and 426 ypg and the defense should be an improved unit as well as they return all four starters in the secondary. Kent St. is coming off a loss against Ohio last week 17-14 as the Bobcats kicked a 44-yard field goal on the last play of the game. It lost the game despite having a 4-0 advantage in turnover margin and that is a rarity which shows how poorly the Golden Flashes really played. They were outgained by 142 total yards and while the defense was solid in allowing only 17 points, the offense could muster up only 295 yards. The Golden Flashes are young up front and really struggled to run the ball last Saturday against Ohio and making matters worse, Trayion Durham is again questionable this week. Here we play against home teams off a home loss, in the first two weeks of the season. This situation is 37-10 ATS (78.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Additionally, Kent St. is 0-6 ATS in its last six home games while going 0-4 ATS in its last four games following a loss. South Alabama is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games in the first half of the season over the last three seasons. 10* (335) South Alabama Jaguars

Boston College and Pittsburgh meet for the first time since 2004 when they were in the Big East. The Eagles are coming off an impressive opener as it was able to take down Massachusetts with relative ease after a slow start. Boston College outgained the Minutemen by 309 total yards and while Massachusetts is expected to be one of the worst teams in the country, it was a big game for the Boston College offense which lost a ton from last season. The Eagles gained 511 total yards and Florida transfer Tyler Murphy was outstanding at quarterback. Pittsburgh was equally impressive as it destroyed Delaware 62-0, outgaining the Blue Hens by 444 total yards. As dominating as it was, the Panthers are another team that is going through some rebuilding changes, especially on the defensive side of the ball. Sure they allowed only 57 total yards but it is tough to gauge exactly how good that is when playing an FCS opponent and a very average one at that. Last season, the Eagles went 5-1 at Alumni Stadium, giving Florida St. a competitive game in their only defeat. They were able to cover both games as a home underdog and it is hard to substantiate them being a home underdog here with so many question marks still looming on the other side. Boston College falls into a great early season situation as we play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after one or more consecutive straight up wins, in the first two weeks of the season. This situation is 41-14 ATS (74.5 percent). 10* (304) Boston College Eagles

UTSA came through for us last Friday and while it wasn't overly dominating, it was good enough to put us back on them here. The Roadrunners won by 20 points thanks to a +3 turnover margin advantage but the potential was there to be more dictating, 14 penalties for 115 yards limited their production on both sides. Still, the defense was outstanding as it allowed only 213 yards against a potentially potent offense and it is hard to look past the experience of this team as UTSA has 12 starters back. Arizona was very impressive last week as it destroyed UNLV by 45 points while outgaining the Rebels by 416 total yards. The Wildcats put up 787 total yards which was the most of any team last weekend so the Roadrunners will have their hands full but I expect them to be up to the task in their home opener. This is a very young Arizona offense so we cannot take last week's performance too serious against a UNLV team that has a bowl ban and motivation is low. UTSA lost by 25 points at Arizona last year but it was only outgained by 43 total yards and it will be out for revenge. Arizona is 3-14 ERA in its last 17 road games after outgaining its last opponent by 225 or more yards while UTSA falls into a solid situation as we play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that had a winning record last season, in non-conference games. This situation is 30-6 ATS (83.3 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (302) Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners

The Miami Hurricanes made some noise last season by starting off 7-0 and making it as high as seventh in the polls but then they ran into Florida St. and were blown out, the start of three straight losses. While the start of last season was special, it could be even better in 2014 as Miami enters this season free of distractions with there no longer being a cloud hanging over the program because of NCAA investigations. Last season, we talked about how freshman quarterback Jameis Winston was the real deal before his first game against Pittsburgh and that proved correct. Miami is in a similar situation this season as it is also starting a freshman quarterback in Brad Kaaya and he too is the real deal. With the healthy return of running back Duke Johnson and a great corps of receivers, the offense should be solid and will go up against a Louisville defense that returns only four starters from last season. Miami is catching Louisville at the best possible time as the Cardinals break in a new quarterback after Teddy Bridgewater fled to the NFL and his replacement does not have the same hype. Will Gardner takes over and while he has had a great spring and fall, he will be without his top target as receiver Devante Parker is out with a foot injury and the Preseason ACC First Team players is expected to miss six weeks. That is a big loss for sure. The Hurricanes defense was atrocious last season but they bring back seven starters and the defense will be tougher and more disrupting. The game is a rematch of last season's Russell Athletic Bowl, a game #18 Louisville won 36-9 so the Hurricanes will be out for revenge and ruin the Cardinals ACC Debut. Miami is 10-1 ATS under head coach Al Golden when the line is +3 to -3 while going 8-3 ATS in the last 11 games as conference underdogs of seven points or less. 10* (209) Miami Hurricanes

LSU is once again one of the top teams in the SEC despite losing a ton of talent to the NFL including its starting quarterback, starting running back and top two receivers. The Tigers are now in rebuilding mode and while the recruiting was once again strong, we may see some early issues in the beginning of the season. LSU is going to pound the ball on the ground because of the lack of experience at quarterback. The Tigers will start either sophomore Anthony Jennings or true freshman Brandon Harris and they have never had a true first-year player start a season opener at quarterback. Wisconsin went 9-3 during the regular season last year with all three losses coming by a touchdown or less and the Badgers are the favorite to win the Big Ten West. Wisconsin brings back only 10 returning starters but has 23 different players who made at least one start last year so there is plenty of depth and experience. While the Tigers have never lost a non-conference regular season game under head coach Les Miles, going 45-0 over that stretch, they have not faced too many tests along the way either. In the past 10 years, Wisconsin is 34-2 against non-conference opponents in the regular season, with their only two losses coming to Oregon State in 2012 and Arizona State in 2013, both of which ended with controversial calls against Wisconsin. This game takes place in Houston so there is no real home field edge for either side although LSU should have the higher fan base but it will be insignificant. These two teams are more evenly matched than what the line is telling us and being on a neutral field, I have this game as a pickem so we are catching significant value. Here, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in the first two weeks of the year, bowl team from prior season who lost their last two games. This situation is 34-10 ATS (77.3 percent) since 1992. 10* (204) Wisconsin Badgers

After consecutive double-digit winning seasons, Georgia took a step backward last year with only eight wins and finished the season with an 8-5 record after losing to Nebraska in the Gator Bowl. The Bulldogs suffered through numerous injuries to key players on offense, came into the season with just three returning starters on defense, were -7 in turnover margin and suffered four of their losses by five points or less. All of that equates to a big turnaround this year and they have dropped at low as 18-1 in some spots to win the National Championship Game. Granted, Georgia has to move on without Aaron Murray at quarterback but Hutson Mason is very skilled and he has a lot around him including a healthy Todd Gurley at running back. The defense now brings back eight starters and will be vastly improved. The good news here is they face a Clemson offense that lost some huge impact players including quarterback Taj Boyd, receiver Sammy Watkins and running back Roderick McDowell. I do expect Clemson to have a solid season but this is not the opponent it wants to be facing in its first game of the season ,especially one that is playing with revenge. The Tigers won the meeting last year by a field goal despite getting outgained by 78 total yards and the change in venue only solidifies the revenge factor as Georgia has won 16 straight home openers and are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games against the ACC. The number may seem big here as the teams are only four spots away in the Preseason AP Poll but we all know those rankings mean little. This could be considered a statement game for Georgia as since 2008, it has started every season ranked in the preseason AP Top 25 but only once did it finish the season ranked higher than where it started. This is a big game to get the season rolling. 10* (182) Georgia Bulldogs

Houston comes into the season as a sleeper team from the AAC as it returns 17 starters from last year's 8-5 squad. The Cougars will be potent once again on offense but the issue is the defense where they allowed big numbers once again under head coach Tony Levine, his second with the program. Houston benefited from a +25 turnover margin last season and those things certainly tend to reverse themselves or at least become more in line to the median the following year. Texas-San Antonio is also coming off a wining season and this is a team that could fly under the radar for at least the first part of the season. The Roadrunner have only been in existence since 2009 and didn't start competing until 2011 but having Larry Coker as the head coach was a perfect hire for a new program. They were ineligible for a bowl game last season and they bring a lot of momentum into this season as they won their last five games and carrying that over should not be an issue with 20 starts returning from last year. UTSA is picked to win the C-USA West by a lot of outlets and the schedule sets up well to do so. They went -7 in turnover margin last season and that comes directly into play in this one as the Roadrunners coughed it up five times against Houston last year in a 59-28 loss. Making it even more frustrating is the fact that UTSA actually outgained Houston by two total yards in that game signaling it was a lot closer than the final score indicated. UTSA was favored in that game by a field goal so now we are seeing a line move that is roughly 14 points in most spots and that is too big of an adjustment. The Roadrunners are 9-3 ATS lifetime on the road and this atmosphere will not be intimidating to the them at all. 10* (151) Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners

Rutgers begins its first season in the Big Ten and many are picking the Scarlet Knights to finish last in the conference in addition to last in the East Division. While they probably won't be going bowling after making the postseason the last three years, this is still a very talented team that returns 16 starters from last season and they should be a competitive bunch. The schedule is not only brutal but they are facing 12 teams they did not face last season so there will be no familiarity in gameplanning. Rutgers has a good opportunity to open the season 4-1 however as this is a very winnable game in my opinion. Washington St. is nothing special and this game isn't even taking place on its home field as it is being played in Seattle. The Cougars will clearly have the fan base but it is just not the same. They finished 6-6 last season and went to a bowl game for the first time since 2003 but lost to Colorado St. There is little optimism for improvement this year and while the offense should again be potent, the loss of three starters on the offensive line is a concern. Washington St. has been favored against a BCS opponent just three times in the Mike Leach era. It was a 1.5-point favorite against California and Utah last year and while it won both games, there is little reason to believe that the Cougars should be more than a touchdown favorite here. Rutgers falls into a great contrarian as we play on any team in the first two weeks of the year, bowl team from last season who lost four or more of their last 5 games and finished with a losing record. This situation is 27-6 ATS (81.8 percent) since 1992. 10* (143) Rutgers Scarlet Knights

It was a huge disappointing season for Tulsa last year. The Golden Hurricane finished 3-9 overall including 2-6 in C-USA and now they take the jump to the much more competitive AAC. The good news is that Tulsa should be much more competitive as well. Last season, they had just nine starters coming back from an 11-3 season in 2012 which was its third straight winning season. Additionally, the Golden Hurricane suffered a ton of injuries along the way but now they are healthy and have 15 starters back including 10 on the defensive side of the ball. Losing their last five home games last season should have them pretty amped up come Thursday night on national television. Tulane was a pleasant surprise last season as it went 7-5 and went to its first bowl game since 2002 but ended up losing to Louisiana in the New Orleans Bowl. Overall, the Green Wave dropped four of their last five games so they come in with very little momentum and they will also have to make up for the loss of eight starters. They still struggled away from home last season despite the overall success as they were 2-4 in true road games and have not won more than two road games in a season in over a decade. Tulsa will be playing with revenge in mind as it lost at Tulane 14-7 which was the first loss to the Green Wave after eight straight wins. All of those wins were covers as well and the last four home victories for Tulsa over the Green Wave were by 35, 28, 49 and 35 points and with these teams going in different directions from last season, I expect an easy win for the home team here. 10* (138) Tulsa Golden Hurricane