Sports Picks & Predictions

7* Jags/Patriots AFC *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 46

The Key: The Jaguars have a Top 2 defense this season.  They have the top-ranked pass defense.  They have the formula and the players to limit what the Patriots can do offensively, which few teams can claim.  But the Jaguars also have one of the worst offenses and one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL.  That’s why they go with a run-heavy approach, shortening the game and playing to the strength of their defense.  The Patriots have been awesome defensively down the stretch.  They have allowed 17 or fewer points in 11 of their last 13 games overall.  I certainly don’t foresee the Jaguars topping 17 points in this one.  Bets on the UNDER on road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points off a big road win scoring 31 or more points are 28-6 since 1983.  Take the UNDER. 

7* Jaguars/Steelers AFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Pittsburgh -7 

The Key: The Pittsburgh Steelers committed 5 turnovers and gave up two pick-6’s the first time these teams played.  But the Steelers have gone 10-1 since that loss to the Jaguars in Week 5.  And the only loss was to the Patriots on a controversial call that overturned a game-winning TD.  The Steelers are now basically fully healthy going into the playoffs for the first time in a long time.  They have a high-powered offense and an improved defense.  Blake Bortles won’t be able to keep up with a motivated Big Ben who will want to make amends for that 5-pick effort back in Week 5.  And Le’Veon Bell is primed for a huge game as he gets the bulk of the action in this game against a Jags run D that has been sub-par all season.  The Steelers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 playoff home games, including 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 Divisional Playoff games.  Their experience wins out in this one.  Take Pittsburgh. 

7* Titans/Patriots AFC *HEAVY HITTER* on New England -13

The Key: No analysis Saturday due to a funeral

7* Alabama/Georgia NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Alabama -3.5 

The Key: It’s not often you’ll get the opportunity to back Alabama as this small of a favorite.  After all, they have been favored in 110 for their last 111 games with the only exception being 1-point underdogs at Georgia in 2015.  They blew out the Bulldogs 38-10 that year.  Alabama is equipped to stop Georgia considering the Crimson Tide have the best rushing defense in the country, giving up just 2.7 yards per carry.  Nick Saban is great at making his opponents play left-handed.  He will make Georgia’s freshman QB try and beat them through the air, and I don’t think he is capable of it.  Speaking of Saban, he’s 11-0 all-time against former assistants, winning by 29 PPG on average.  Kirby Smart is simply overmatched here.  Take Alabama. 

7* Panthers/Saints NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on New Orleans -6.5 

The Key: The Saints have owned the Panthers.  They have gone a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 meetings with Carolina.  They have scores 31 and 34 points in their two meetings this season, outscoring the Panthers 65-34 in the process.  Their offense has had no trouble moving the ball and scoring points on Carolina’s defense.  That will continue here inside a hostile atmosphere in New Orleans.  Cam Newton went just 14-of-34 passing last week against the Falcons, and I don’t think the Panthers have the firepower on offense to keep up.  Newton has only thrown for over 185 yards twice in his last 9 games.  The Saints are 20-0 SU & 16-3-1 ATS in their last 20 home games when they have a winning record.  It’s just a completely different atmosphere inside the Mercedes-Benz Superdome when they are good.  Take New Orleans. 

7* Falcons/Rams NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Atlanta +6 

The Key: The Atlanta Falcons won 10 games this season despite playing the 4th most difficult schedule in the NFL.  The Rams had a great season but only had to face the 17th schedule.  And teams that played the tougher schedule in these wild card games are 41-19 straight up and 41-18-1 against the spread.  They are 24-5 straight up and 23-5-1 against the number when the difference is 10 or more.  Take Atlanta. 

7* Alabama/Clemson NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Alabama -3 

The Key: Nick Saban and the Alabama Crimson Tide will be out for revenge from their loss to Clemson on the final play of the game as they were going for their 2nd consecutive national championship.  But now Clemson doesn’t have Deshaun Watson to dig them out of a hole again.  Saban is 10-2 straight up in revenge game as the coach of Alabama.  They had an extra week to get ready for this game because they finally didn’t make the SEC Championship.  Now they are getting healthy on defense for the first time in a long time.  Take Alabama. 

6* Georgia/Oklahoma NCAAF *CA$H COW* on Oklahoma +3 

The Key: Oklahoma has been able to handle the SEC and big teams better than basically any team in the country.  The Sooners are 4-0 in their last 4 against SEC opponents.  They are also 7-0 against the spread against teams that have won at least 75% of their games over the last 2 seasons.  They are 11-1 ATS against teams with winning records over the last 2 years as well.  I think Georgia is in for a rude awakening against by far the best offense they have seen this season, especially the best passing offense led by Baker Mayfield.  Take Oklahoma. 

7* Bills/Dolphins AFC East *HEAVY HITTER* on Buffalo -2.5 

The Key: The Bills must win to get into the playoffs.  They need some help, but first they must win.  The Dolphins can’t be trusted to offer much resistance with the way they are playing down the stretch.  They have gone just 2-7 in their last 9 games overall.  The Bills have won 2 of their last 3 with their only loss coming to the Patriots on the road, and that game was tied 16-16 in the 3rd quarter and the Bills really got screwed by the refs having a touchdown called back that changed the complexion of the game.  The Bills just beat the Dolphins 24-16 at home a few weeks back.  Miami is 1-9 ATS off a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse over the last 3 seasons.  The Dolphins are 5-23 ATS in their last 28 games after allowing more than 250 passing yards in their previous game.  I’ll side with the more motivated Bills in this matchup.  Take Buffalo. 

6* Cowboys/Eagles NFC East *CA$H COW* on Dallas -3 

The Key: The Philadelphia Eagles are more concerned with keeping guys healthy going into the postseason.  They just locked up the No. 1 seed so they have literally nothing to play for.  The Cowboys want to finish strong as evidenced by several quotes from their two offensive leaders in Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott earlier in the week.  I think they roll the Eagles’ scrubs, who could enter this game as early as the first quarter.  Take Dallas.

6* Jets/Patriots AFC East *CA$H COW* on New York +15.5 

The Key: No team has played the Patriots tougher than the Jets over the last few years.  In fact, the Jets are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 meetings with the Patriots.  They have only lost by more than 7 points once in their last 9 meetings.  Now they’re catching 15.5 points against the Patriots today and it’s simply too much.  Take New York. 

7* NCAAF Bowl Game of the Year on Miami +6.5 

The Key: This will be a home game for the Miami Hurricanes played in the Orange Bowl down in Miami.  They had their two best performances of the season in home night games earlier this year.  They beat Virginia Tech 28-10 as 1.5-point favorites and Notre Dame 41-8 as 3.5-point underdogs.  I think they come forth with a huge effort here against Wisconsin to finish off their season the right way.  Miami will be the bet team Wisconsin has faced outside Ohio State as the Badgers played an extremely soft schedule.  And the Badgers were thoroughly outplayed by the Buckeyes in their lone loss of the season.  I think you can chalk up loss No. 2 for the Badgers here Saturday night.  Take Miami. 

7* Utah State/New Mexico State *Total* Annihilator on OVER 63 

The Key: Expect offensive fireworks between Utah State and New Mexico State tonight in the Arizona bowl in perfect conditions in Tucson.  Utah State scored 35 or more points in 6 of its 12 games this season.  New Mexico State scored 30 or more points in 7 of its 12 games.  Basically both teams need to get to 30 to secure this OVER, which shouldn’t be a problem.  New Mexico State is 13-4 OVER in its last 17 games playing on 2 or more weeks rest.  The OVER is 7-0 in Aggies last 7 road games off an ATS loss.  The OVER is 9-3 in Utah State's last 12 games overall.  The OVER is 22-8 in NMSU's last 30 non-conference games.  The OVER is 41-20-2 in NMSU’s last 63 games overall.  Take the OVER.

7* Stanford/TCU NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on TCU -3 

The Key: I’m getting the better defense and the better offense in this game with TCU -3 here over Stanford.  I’m also getting a home-field advantage for the Horned Frogs as this game will be played in the Alamo Dome in San Antonio, Texas.  The Frogs give up just 17.6 PPG and 329 YPG which is ridiculously impressive in the Big 12 these days.  They also average 33.2 PPG and 414 YPG on offense.  Stanford only averages 32 PPG and 381 YPG on offense while giving up 21.5 PPG and 399 YPG on defense.  They are actually getting outgained by 18 YPG on the season, which is a sign that their 9-4 record is fraudulent.  Gary Patterson has had plenty of time to scheme and prepare for Stanford’s Bryce Love, which is their only real weapon offense.  The Horned Frogs only give up 100 rushing yards per game and 2.9 per carry this season.  Take TCU. 

7* Missouri/Texas NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Texas +3 

The Key: Missouri feasted on a weak schedule down the stretch to get to a bowl game.  After a 1-5 start, they reeled off 6 straight victories against Idaho, UConn, Florida, Tennessee, Vanderbilt and Arkansas.  None of those 6 teams made a bowl games.  Texas went through the Big 12 gauntlet and played both USC and Maryland out of conference.  They went 6-6, but they were competitive in every game and 4 of their 6 losses came by 5 points or less.  Tom Herman is 15-1 ATS in his coaching career as an underdog.  The wrong team is favored in this game.  Take Texas. 

7* NIU/Duke NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Northern Illinois +7 

The Key: The Northern Illinois Huskies have been one of the better Group of 5 teams in the country for years.  They kind of get overlooked this season because they ‘only’ went 8-4, but this is still a very good team that nearly won the MAC.  All four losses came by 10 points or less, including three by 7 points or fewer to Boston College (20-23), San Diego State (28-34), Central Michigan (24-31) and Toledo (17-27) with three of those losses coming on the road.  They also beat Nebraska on the road.  So they were competitive in every game, and they will be competitive against Duke here.  The Blue Devils only beat two bowl teams this season.  What gives NIU a shot to pull the upset tonight is the fact that its defense ranks 20th in the country, giving up just 20.8 PPG, 328 YPG and 4.6 YPP on the season.  The offense has been fine in scoring 30.2 PPG.  Duke’s offense has been suspect at 25.7 PPG.  This just has the makings of a low-scoring, defensive battle, and that certainly favors the underdog getting 7 points.  The Huskies are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games off two straight games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse.  The Huskies are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games.  Take Northern Illinois. 

7* Steelers/Texans AFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Houston +9 

The Key: I question the motivation of the Pittsburgh Steelers today.  They blew their game against the Patriots and lost a game that decided the No. 1 seed in the AFC.  And with the Jaguars losing yesterday, the Steelers can afford a loss today and still get a first-round bye by winning next week against the lowly Browns at home.  They will suffer a hangover from that loss to the Patriots last week.  Plus they don’t have two of their best players in Antonio Brown and Ryan Shazier.  And the Steelers have several close wins against bad teams of late as 6 of their last 7 games have been decided by 5 points or fewer.  Bets on teams that were beaten by the spread by 49 or more total points in their last 7 games against an opponent that went over the total by 28 or more points in their last 3 games are 39-13 ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Texans couldn’t be more undervalued than they are right now off 3 straight double-digit losses.  Take Houston. 

6* Sunday NFL *BLOWOUT* on Detroit Lions -3 

The Key: The Detroit Lions have to be more than 3-point favorites over the Cincinnati Bengals today based on the motivation of these two teams.  The Lions have managed to stay alive in the playoff race by going 5-2 in their last 7 games overall.  Now they play a Bengals team that has clearly quit, losing their last 2 games to the Bears and Vikings by a combined score of 14-67.  Marvin Lewis has announced he is done after the season, so the players have nothing left to fight for.  And the Bengals are a mash unit due to all of their injuries both on the offensive line and all over the defense.  Cincinnati is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games after railing its previous game by 21 or more at the half.  Detroit is 10-2 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record in the 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.  The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.  Take Detroit. 

6* Sunday NFL *UPSET SPECIAL* on Denver Broncos +3 

The Key: Brock Osweiler had a near-perfect QBR in his last game against the Colts.  He is trying to show teams that he can still be a starting quarterback in this league.  The Broncos have throttled the Colts and Broncos by a combined 48-13 score over the past 2 weeks.  Now they have extra prep time to get ready for the Washington Redskins after playing last Thursday.  They have the league’s top-ranked defense this season and will make life miserable on Kirk Cousins and the banged-up Redskins.  Washington was fortunate to win last week against the Cardinals limiting them to 5 field goals instead of touchdowns.  I think Osweiler and company punch it in a few more times this week, and the defense shuts down this anemic Washington offense.  The Redskins are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a win.  Take Denver. 

7* NFL Game of the Year on Tennessee Titans +7 

The Key: Two weeks ago you could have bet the Los Angeles Rams at a pick ‘em against the Tennessee Titans.  This line has moved 7 points since then.  That’s based solely on public perception.  The Rams are coming off their biggest win of the season, a 42-7 beat down at Seattle.  After basically clinching the division with that victory, I expect them to suffer a letdown this week against the Titans.  The Titans have since lost back-to-back games and that’s why the perception on them is down.  But they have everything to play for here at 8-6 as they are fighting for a playoff spot in the crowded AFC.  And they still have a chance to win the division if they can win out.  That’s why I expect the best effort of the season from the Titans in this game.  And we’re getting 7 points with them at home.  This is one of the best values I’ve ever seen in the NFL.  Take Tennessee.

6* App State/Toledo NCAAF *CA$H COW* on Toledo -6 

The Key: I really like this spot for the Toledo Rockets.  They lost to Appalachian State in their bowl game last season, and now they get a shot at revenge this season.  I think they will be the more hungry team because of it.  And I think Appalachian State isn’t as good as last year, while Toledo is a better football team than it was a year ago.  The Rockets won the MAC this season.  Their only 2 losses both came on the road at Miami and at Ohio.  That Ohio game wasn’t that important because they had basically clinched the MAC West with a win over Northern Illinois the week before, so it was a letdown spot.  They went on to win their final 3 games by 29, 27 and 17 points.  And that 17-point win came after they let the foot off the gas following a 35-0 lead over Akron in which they committed 5 turnovers, or it would have been an even bigger blowout.  Appalachian State lost to the likes of UMass and UL Monroe this season.  The Mountaineers are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games after leading their previous game by 24 or more points at the half.  The Rockets are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games after leading their previous game by 17 or more at the half.  Take Toledo. 

7* Colts/Ravens AFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Indianapolis +14 

The Key: The Baltimore Ravens don’t have a potent enough offense to be laying 2 touchdowns to the Indianapolis Colts today.  In fact, they have one of the worst offenses in the entire NFL.  They have been living off turnovers this season, which is hard to sustain.  They are plus-17 in turnover differential.  But the Colts don’t turn the ball over as Jacoby Brissett has thrown just 7 interceptions on the season.  The Colts have committed 1 or fewer turnovers in 11 of their 14 games this year.  They aren’t going to give the Ravens the gifts they have been used to getting this year.  That’s going to make it hard for them to cover this massive spread.  The Colts have shown up every week and given a great effort for Chuck Pagano.  He is doing a good job, and it’s unfortunate that he may lose that job at the end of the season.  But it won’t be for a lack of fighting, and I expect his players to show up for him this week once again.  This is also a good spot for the Colts as they are rested after playing last Thursday against the Broncos, getting extra time to prepare, while the Ravens are on a short week after beating the Browns on Sunday.  Bets against home favorites a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) against a losing team are 70-38 ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Pagano is 23-13 ATS off a loss as the coach of Indianapolis.  The Colts are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a double-digit home loss.  The Ravens are 3-8-2 ATS in their last 13 games following a win by more than 14 points.  The Colts are 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Take Indianapolis. 

7* Central Michigan/Wyoming NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Central Michigan +3 

The Key: The Wyoming Cowboys are overrated because of Josh Allen’s NFL prospects.  But this offense has been one of the worst in the country.  The Cowboys only average 22.3 points and 287 yards per game.  That’s not very good for a QB like Allen who was expected to be a top draft choice coming into the season.  Conversely, the CMU Chippewas are rolling offensively.  They have gone 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games behind an offense that has scored at least 31 points in all 5 games while averaging 41.2 PPG.  Miami transfer Shane Morris is lighting it up at the quarterback position, and the rushing offense has really gotten going too.  I like their momentum coming into this game and simply think they are the better team and shouldn’t be catching points.  Bets against favorites of 3 to 10 points off a close road loss by 3 points or less, with a winning record playing another winning team are 39-13 ATS since 1992.  Take Central Michigan.

7* Temple/FIU NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Temple -6.5 

The Key: This is one of the bigger strength of schedule differences of any bowl game.  Temple play the much tougher slate of games.  And after struggling to start, they made the switch at quarterback and have finished strong.  They have won 3 of their last 4 with their only loss coming to unbeaten UCF to get to 6-6 and bowl eligible.  This Temple senior class has never won a bowl game and will be motivated to do so after getting upset by both Toledo and Wake Forest the past two seasons.  FIU went 8-4 this season, but only 2 of the wins came against bowl teams in Marshall and WKU.  Their 4 losses all came by 7 points or more, including 3 by 20-plus points against the better opponents they faced.  They lost by 44 to UCF and by 28 to FAU.  I think Temple is only a notch below those 2 teams.  Temple is 7-0 ATS after allowing 125 or fewer passing yards over the last 2 seasons.  The Owls are 15-3 ATS after the first month of the season over the last 2 seasons.  Temple is 11-1 ATS vs. poor passing defenses that allow 58% completions or worse over the last 2 seasons.  The Owls are 6-0 ATS in road games versus poor defensive teams that allow 5.9 or more yards per play over the last 3 years.  The Owls are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. C-USA teams.  The Golden Panthers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games.  FIU is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 non-conference games.  Take Temple. 

6* LA Tech/SMU NCAAF *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 72 

The Key: The LA Tech Bulldogs are going to try to slow down the pace in this game and play to their strengths, which is their defense and running game.  They average just 28.7 points per game and cannot keep up with SMU in a shootout.  They rush for 175 yards per game and should have success moving the sticks and slowing down the pace against an SMU defense that allows 213 rushing yards per game.  The Bulldogs only give up 26.7 points per game on the season.  This is a much different team under Skip Holtz than in year’s past.  They just beat UTSA 20-6 at home in their season finale.  It won’t be that low-scoring of a game, but it won’t exceed 72 points either.  SMU is 16-5 UNDER in its last 21 games when playing on 2 or more weeks of rest.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Bulldogs last 6 games following an ATS win.  The UNDER is 4-0 in SMU’s last 4 bowl games.  The UNDER is 14-6 in Mustangs last 20 games following a win.  Take the UNDER. 

7* Akron/FAU NCAAF *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 66 

The Key: Florida Atlantic gets too much credit for its offense and not enough for its defense.  The Owls have held each of their last six opponents to 28 points or fewer, including 17 and 12 points allowed in their last two contests.  Akron is one of the worst offensive teams that they will have faced this season.  The Zips only average 23.6 points and 330 yards this season.  They do play decent defense and should do enough to slow down the Owls.  The Zips give up 26.3 points per game.  Akron is 10-3 UNDER in all games this season.  The Zips are 8-1 UNDER off a loss by 17 points or more over the last 3 seasons.  The UNDER is 8-2 in Zips last 10 road games.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Owls last 6 December games.  Take the UNDER. 

7* Falcons/Bucs NFC South *HEAVY HITTER* on Atlanta -6.5 

The Key: The Atlanta Falcons have done whatever they wanted to offensively in their last two meetings with the Bucs.  They won 43-28 in Tampa last year with 461 total yards, and they won 34-20 at home earlier this season behind 516 total yards.  The Bucs rank last in the NFL in total defense and won’t offer much resistance tonight either.  The Bucs are a mess at 4-9 on the season and haven’t had a bye all year.  They are tired, they are beat up, and they stand no chance of keeping this game close against Atlanta.  They are going to be without 2 of their best players on defense in DT Gerald McCoy and LB Lavonte David.  Tampa Bay is 0-6 ATS as an underdog this season.  The Bucs are 0-6 ATS vs. teams who average 235 or more passing yards per game this season.  The Falcons are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Monday games.  The Bucs are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 vs. NFC opponents, and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. NFC South opponents.  Take Atlanta. 

7* NFL Total of the Year on Cowboys/Raiders UNDER 45.5 

The Key: The Dallas Cowboys have been missing Ezekiel Elliott offensively.  They scored 9 or fewer points in 3 consecutive games without him.  They get him back next week, but until then their offense will continue to struggle moving the football.  Their defense got a big boost with the return of Sean Lee, and their numbers with and without him have been staggering.  They held the Redskins to 14 points two weeks ago and the Giants to just 10 points last week.  The Raiders are lacking offensive punch, and now they’re without their best receiver in Amari Cooper, who re-injured his ankle in a 15-26 loss to the Chiefs last week.  I think both teams will struggle to score points tonight.  Both teams will lean on the run, which will keep the clock moving.  Dallas is 11-1 UNDER in road games in the 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.  The UNDER is 17-6 in Cowboys last 23 road games, and 5-1 in their last six games overall.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Raiders last 4 games overall, and 4-1 in their last 5 home games.  Take the UNDER. 

6* Sunday NFL *BLOWOUT* on Buffalo Bills -3 

The Key: Don’t look now but the Buffalo Bills are in the playoffs if the season were to end today.  They have a lot to play for, and it’s as hard to win in Buffalo in December as it is anywhere else in the NFL.  Now they get to host the Dolphins, who are in the ultimate letdown spot following their upset win over the Patriots on Monday.  They are also on a short week, and this warm weather team won’t like the conditions in Buffalo.  This game just screams Bills’ blowout because they get starting QB Tyrod Taylor back from injury this week, and they are the better running team in this cold weather.  Bets on any team (Buffalo) after being beaten by the spread by 42 or more points total in their last 5 games against an opponent that went over the total by 35 or more points in their last 5 games are 41-13 ATS over the last 10 years.  The Bills are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 home games in the 2nd half of the season vs. bad defensive teams that give up 24 or more points per game.  The Dolphins are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 Sunday games following a Monday game.  Take Buffalo. 

6* Sunday NFL *UPSET SPECIAL* on Arizona Cardinals +4 

The Key: The Arizona Cardinals have won 2 of their last 3 games coming into this contest over the Titans and Jaguars, two teams poised to make the playoffs.  They should be able to handle the Washington Redskins, who sit at 5-8 and are done for.  This Redskins defense looks to have basically quit as they have allowed 30 or more points in 6 of their last 8 games.  The Cardinals still have an elite defense as they are yielding just 242 yards per game in their last 3 contests.  I’m not sure how the Redskins can be favored by more than a field goal in a game that they’ll likely lose outright.  They are just 14-28 ATS in their last 42 home games as a favorite in the 3.5-7 range.  The Redskins are also just 11-28-2 ATS in their last 41 home games when playing against a team with a losing record.  Take Arizona. 

6* Chargers/Chiefs AFC West *CA$H COW* on Los Angeles PK 

The Key: The Chargers have been one of the best teams in the NFL down the stretch.  They have won 4 straight games by a combined 78 points, or an average of 19.5 points per game.  The Chiefs have lost 4 of their last 5 with their only win coming at home against the hapless Raiders.  They also lost to the Giants, Bills and Jets during this stretch.  It’s clear to me which team is playing better football right now and most likely to get the win in this pick ‘em game.  Philip Rivers knows this is one of his last chances to make the playoffs, and he’s not going to squander it.  Take Los Angeles. 

7* Oregon/Boise State ABC *HEAVY HITTER* on Oregon -7 

The Key: Oregon was 6-1 and averaged 51.2 points in games Justin Herbert started this season, while going 1-4 and scoring 15.0 points in games he was sidelined.  That’s all you need to know about this game.  The Ducks will hang a big number on the Boise State Broncos, and they won’t be able to keep up. Take Oregon. 

7* Broncos/Colts AFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Denver -2.5 

The Key: The Denver Broncos actually have the No. 1 defense in the NFL based on a number of different statistical categories.  That is the difference in this game as the Colts have one of the worst defenses in the NFL, giving up 26.4 points and 375.3 yards per game.  And the Colts have one of the worst offenses as well, averaging just 16.3 points and 290.7 yards per game.  This is a complete mismatch, and even this stagnant Denver offense should be able to get going against this weak Colts defense tonight.  The Colts are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 home games after scoring 17 points or fewer in 3 straight games.  Take Denver. 

7* Patriots/Dolphins AFC East *HEAVY HITTER* on Miami +12 

The Key: The Patriots will be playing their 4th road game in 5 weeks here.  They also have to play a team they just beat by 18 points 2 weeks ago.  And they have their ‘game of the year’ against the Steelers on deck next week.  This couldn’t be a worse situation for the Patriots.  I think their 6-game ATS winning streak comes to an end Monday night.  They are being asked to lay too many points in Miami.  The home team is 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings between these teams.  The Dolphins have won 2 of their last 3 home meetings with the Patriots outright.  Take Miami. 

7* NFL *Blowout* Game of the Month on Los Angeles Chargers -6 

The Key: The Redskins have nothing to play for after losing 14-38 to the Cowboys last week.  It was their last stand, and now they’re done.  And they’ve been hit so hard by injuries that they never had a chance anyway.  The Chargers have everything to play for as they are tied for first place in the AFC West with the Chiefs and Raiders.  They have won 6 of their last 8 and Philip Rivers has a 12-to-1 TD/INT ratio in the six wins.  He’s playing at a high level, and he’s backed by a defense that is great against the pass and getting to the quarterback.  That makes this a bad matchup for the Redskins and Kirk Cousins.  The Chargers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games during Week 14.  The favorite is 4-0-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.  Take Los Angeles. 

6* Sunday NFL *UPSET SPECIAL* on Chicago Bears +6.5 

The Key: The Cincinnati Bengals suffered a crushing loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers on Monday Night Football.  They blew a 17-point lead in that game.  It was their last stand.  Now they’re on a short week and won’t be excited at all to face the Bears.  And they are missing numerous players on defense, and possibly their entire starting secondary.  The Bears continue to fight despite the poor media attention.  I think they can go into Cincinnati and pull the upset, but we’ll take the points for some added cushion.  The Bears have been competitive in every game by one that Mitch Trubisky has started.  They have only lost by more than 8 points once in their last 8 games, and that was at Philadelphia.  The Bengals only have 2 wins by more than 4 points all season.  John Fox is 10-1 ATS when he total is 35.5 to 42 as the coach of Chicago.  The Bengals cannot be this heavily favored considering the bad spot for them off the Steelers game Monday, and all of their injuries on defense.  Take Chicago. 

6* Raiders/Chiefs AFC West *CA$H COW* on Kansas City -4 

The Key: The Chiefs have lost 6 of their last 7 after a 5-0 start.  They are now tied for first place in the AFC West with the Raiders and Chargers.  I think we are getting them at a discount now after this poor run.  Their offense came to life last week with 31 points while averaging over 10 yards per play against the Jets.  I think they score in bunches here against an awful Raiders defense.  The Chiefs will want revenge on the Raiders after losing on the final play of the game 31-30 in their first meeting.  The Raiders likely won’t have Amari Cooper because of an ankle injury.  That’s huge considering Cooper has 11 receptions for 210 yards and 2 touchdowns against the Chiefs in the first meeting.  Bets on home favorites revenging a loss against opponent, off an upset loss as a favorite are 33-11 ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Chiefs are 7-0 ATS after gaining 6.5 or more yards per play in their previous game over the last 2 seasons.  Kansas City is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 vs. AFC West foes.  Take Kansas City. 

7* Saints/Falcons NFC South *HEAVY HITTER* on Atlanta -2 

The Key: The Atlanta Falcons are ‘all in’ tonight as they can’t afford to lose this game if they want to make the playoffs.  Look for them to get the job done at home against the Saints, who have beaten up on such a soft schedule of late.  The one time they stepped up on class?  They lost 20-26 on the road to the Rams two weeks ago only after scoring a touchdown in the closing seconds to make the score look closer than was.  Now this is another step up game for the Saints.  The Falcons get two starting cornerbacks back this week from injury, and that’s going to be huge for them.  The Saints are still banged up everywhere, especially on defense.  Bets on home favorites after having won 2 of their last 3 games, a marginal winning team 51% to 60% playing a winning team are 28-6 ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Take Atlanta. 

7* AFC North Game of the Year on Cincinnati Bengals +6 

The Key: The season is on the line for the Cincinnati Bengals tonight.  At 5-6 they need a win to stay in the playoff hunt.  The Steelers are 9-2 and can afford a loss now.  Because they host the Patriots in a couple weeks, they can lose this game and win that one and still be the No. 1 seed in the AFC.  I believe this line is way off as the Steelers were only 3.5-point favorites over the Bengals at home in their first meeting, and now they are 6-point road favorites in the second meeting.  That’s an 8.5-point adjustment.  And the Steelers have recent 3-point wins over both the Colts and Packers, so it’s not like they are playing at an extremely high level.  The Steelers are 8-24-1 ATS in their last 33 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  Take Cincinnati. 

6* Browns/Chargers AFC *CA$H COW* on Cleveland +14 

The Key: This line has gotten way out of whack.  The Chargers can’t be 2 touchdown favorites against anyone.  I realize the Cleveland Browns are 0-11, but they are better than they get credit for.  One quick look at the stats shows that.  The Browns are only getting outgained by 8 yards per game on the season, averaging 310 yards per game on offense and giving up 8 per game on defense.  Their problem has been red zone struggles on both sides of the ball.  But now the Browns are in the largest underdog role they’ve been all season, and it’s coming against a mediocre 5-6 Chargers team that has zero home-field advantage.  Bets on underdogs of 10.5 or more points off 7 or more consecutive losses against opponent off 2 or more consecutive wins are 23-7 ATS since 1983.  Bets on road underdogs off 6 or more consecutive losses in weeks 10 through 13 are 35-13 ATS since 1983.  Take Cleveland. 

6* Patriots/Bills AFC *CA$H COW* on Buffalo +9 

The Key: The Patriots have some mass injuries right now they are dealing with.  They will be without receiver Chris Hogan, offensive tackle Marcus Cannon and sack leader Trey Flowers.  They also could be without cornerback Eric Rose and offensive tackler LeAdrian Waddle, who are both questionable.  The Bills earned a huge 16-10 win in Kansas City last week to keep their playoff hopes alive.  Their defense was awesome, limiting the Chiefs to just 10 points and 236 total yards.  They have a knack for playing the Patriots tough.  They have actually won 2 of the last 5 meetings outright and have only lost once by more than 8 points in those 5 meetings.  The Bills are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.  The Bills are 26-13 ATS in their last 39 home games in weeks 10 through 13.  Take Buffalo.

7* NFL Blowout Game of the Year on Baltimore Ravens -3 

The Key: This game is all about the matchup.  The Ravens have 14 sacks over the past month and have forced 13 turnovers in their past 4 games.  Mathew Stafford has been sacked 10 times in the past 3 weeks and they are starting to turn the ball over more.  Stafford is nursing an ankle injury that will have him far from full strength.  And there are injuries along the offensive line that are going to allow the Ravens to get after him for 4 quarters.  The Vikings put up 30 points and 408 total yards on this Detroit defense last week, and I think Joe Flacco and the offense will do enough to support their dominant defense in this one.  Bet on home favorites that have won 2 of their last 3 games coming in, who are winning 51% to 60% of their games and playing another winning team are 27-6 ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Take Baltimore. 

6* Saturday NCAAF *BLOWOUT* on New Mexico State -9.5 

The Key: We are going to get a max-motivated New Mexico State Aggies team here Saturday.  They sit at 5-6 on the season and need one more win for bowl eligibility, while 4-7 South Alabama has been eliminated from bowl contention.  New Mexico State hasn’t been to a bowl game since 1960!  Senior QB Tyler Rodgers has been the catalyst for the turnaround.  He sat out last game with a shoulder injury, but it 100% now and will make his return on Senior Day here.  These teams have 5 common opponents.  South Alabama is getting outgained by 113 yards per game against those 5 teams, while New Mexico State is outgaining those 5 teams by 13 yards per game.  It’s clear which of these is the better team, and which will be more motivated.  South Alabama is 0-8 ATS in road games in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.  The Jaguars are 0-7 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 years.  Take New Mexico State. 

6* NCAAF Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Louisiana-Monroe +26.5 

The Key: The LA-Monroe Warhawks have held their own against some very good competition this year.  They only lost 29-37 at Memphis as 28-point dogs, and that Memphis team has just one loss on the season.  They only lost 14-42 at Auburn as 39-point dogs, and Auburn is one win away from making the four-team playoff.  Now they face a worse team than both of those squads in 5-6 Florida State.  And the Seminoles are in turmoil right now with Jimbo Fisher announcing yesterday that he was signing a 10-year, $75 million deal with Texas A&M.  Players could revolt here.  They need one more win for a bowl game, but it’s hard to believe these players even want to play in a bowl now with Fisher gone.  The Seminoles are 0-6 ATS versus good offensive teams averaging 425 or more yards per game this season.  Take Louisiana-Monroe. 

7* Akron/Toledo MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Akron +21 

The Key: The Toledo Rockets cannot be 3-touchdown favorites in the MAC Championship Game.  They beat Akron 48-21 at home earlier this season for a 27-point victory.  But the Zips have improved since then and this game will be on a neutral field, and they’ll want revenge from that defeat.  They also have a more electric quarterback running the show now in freshman Kato Nelson, who has thrown 6 TD’s against 2 INT while leading the Zips to the MAC East title down the stretch.  He also adds a dual-threat element with 167 rushing yards and a score.  MAC dogs of 12 or more in championship games are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 tries.  The Zips are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games overall.  The Zips are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Akron. 

7* Stanford/USC NCAAF Friday Night Lights on USC -3.5 

The Key: The USC Trojans have had 2 weeks to get ready for Stanford after receiving their bye last week.  The Cardinal are on a short week after a tough game against Notre Dame in which they trailed into the 4th quarter Saturday night before the Fighting Irish gave the game away with 3 turnovers.  The situation favors the Trojans, who have already beaten the Cardinal 42-24 while racking up over 600 yards of total offense against them in their first meeting this year.  The Cardinal are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win.  Take USC. 

7* Redskins/Cowboys NFL Total of the Week on UNDER 47.5 

The Key: This has the makings of a low-scoring game tonight between Washington and Dallas.  Both teams have banged-up offensive lines, and the Redskins are missing several key weapons on offense.  The Redskins are improving defensively, giving up just 10 points and 170 total yards to the Giants last week.  The Cowboys are faltering on offense, averaging just 7.3 points and 235 yards per game in their last 3 games.  Neither team was that effective on offense in their first meeting, a 33-19 Dallas win that was misleading.  The Cowboys only managed 307 total yards while the Redskins were held to 285.  With those small yardage outputs, their shouldn’t have been 52 total points scored.  Dallas is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 after gaining 250 or less total yards in 2 consecutive games.  The Cowboys are 10-2 UNDER when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.  Take the UNDER. 

7* Texans/Ravens NFL *Total* Annihilator on OVER 39

The Key: Oddsmakers can't set a Monday Night Football total below 40.  These prime time games have been going over the total at an alarming rate over the last several weeks, and I think the books have made another mistake here setting this total too low Monday night.  The Ravens are clicking offensively right now, and they should be able to score at will on a depleted, bad Houston defense.  The Texans got their offense going last week for the first time with Tom Savage at quarterback, scoring 31 points and managing 357 total yards against a good Arizona defense.  They should score enough to help push this game OVER the total.  Houston is 10-2 OVER in road games off one or more straight ATS wins over the last 3 seasons.  They are scoring 50.6 combined points per game in this situation.  Take the OVER.

6* Jags/Cardinals Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Arizona +5

The Key: The Jacksonville Jaguars have benefited from an extremely soft schedule of late.  They have won 4 in a row and are starting to become a public team.  Now they are laying 5 points on the road here to the Arizona Cardinals.  The Cardinals played well enough to win their last two games against Seattle and Houston.  Blaine Gabbert made his first start with the team last week on the road at Houston, and should be much more effective at home this time around in his 2nd start.  And you can bet Gabbert wants revenge on his former team here.  The Jags are without some key starters in OL Jeremy Parnell, OL Patrick Omameh, CB Jalen Ransey and WR Allen Hurns.  Not having Hurns will allow Patrick Peterson to lockdown Marquise Lee, who is the only real threat at receiver now for the Jaguars.  Bruce Arians is 10-2 ATS as a home dog of 7 points or less in all games he has coached.  Take Arizona.

6* NFC Game of the Week on Chicago Bears +14.5

The Key: The Chicago Bears have been a profitable team to back this season.  They are now in their largest underdog role of the season, while the Philadelphia Eagles are in their largest favorite role of the year.  Mitch Trubisky has helped make the Bears at least competitive.  In his 6 starts, the Bears have not lost by more than 8 points once.  He has been protecting the football very well with just 3 turnovers in their last 4 games.  The Eagles are in a letdown spot off their big win over Dallas Sunday night.  They could also be looking ahead to a huge stretch with back-to-back road games at Seattle and the LA Rams in their next two games.  John Fox is 9-2 ATS when facing teams who average 5.65 or more yards per play as the coach of Chicago.  Take Chicago.

7* AFC East Game of the Year on Miami Dolphins +17

The Key: After going 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall, the New England Patriots are becoming that public darling once again.  The betting public is going to line up to back them at any number.  That provides some line value to fade them as the Patriots are now 17-point favorites against the Dolphins this week.  This is their biggest favorite role of the season as they have only been a double-digit favorite one other time.  The Miami Dolphins have lost four straight and haven't covered a point spread in any of their last 5 games.  The betting public wants nothing to do with them, especially after their 20-30 loss to the Bucs last week.  But they should have won that game as they lost the turnover battle 5-0 and managed 448 total yards.  Matt Moore will find success against this soft New England defense that gives up 402 yards per game and 6.5 yards per play this season.  The Patriots have a ton of injuries right now and will be without two starting offensive linemen in C David Andrews and OL Marcus Cannon.  Bets on road teams (MIAMI) - after being beaten by the spread by 49 or more points total in their last five games, in weeks 10 through 13 are 23-4 ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Take Miami.

7* NCAA Football Game of the Year on Temple -3

The Key: The Temple Owls sit at 5-6 and one win short of a bowl berth.  They will be hungry to get that 6th victory here against Tulsa, a rebuilding team that is just 2-9 on the season.  The Owls should be bigger favorites here.  After beating both Navy and Cincinnati, they lost 19-45 to unbeaten UCF last week.  But that was a misleading final as they actually outgained the Knights and held them to 384 total yards, but they lost the turnover battle 5-0, which was the difference.  Tulsa's biggest game came last week when they fell just short 20-27 at South Florida.  They won't be nearly as hungry to win this week.  I think the line value is with Temple due to last week's results from these two teams as the scores weren't indicative of the kinds of games they were.  Temple is 6-0 ATS after a game where they committed 3 or more turnovers over the last 2 seasons.  Tulsa is 0-6 ATS in home games after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons.  The Owls are 11-1 ATS versus poor defensive teams that allow 425 yards/game or more over the last 3 seasons.  Take Temple.

6* Saturday NCAAF *BLOWOUT* on Florida Atlantic -23

The Key: Lane Kiffin and the FAU Owls are absolutely rolling right now.  They are 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.  Their only non-cover came when they took an intentional safety against Marshall in the final few seconds to blow the cover.  They have 4 wins by 25-plus points in their last 6 games. and now they take on 1-10 Charlotte.  The 49ers quit last week in a 21-66 loss at Southern Miss, giving up 363 rushing yards.  FAU rushes for 280 yards per game and 6.2 per carry and should score at will on this Charlotte defense, which gives up 32.9 PPG on the season.  Charlotte has one of the worst offenses in the country, averaging just 14.4 PPG on the season.  I fully expect the Owls to win by 4-plus touchdowns in this one.  The Owls are 7-1 ATS as a favorite this season, winning by 25.4 PPG.  Bets on road favorites of 14.5 or more points (FLA ATLANTIC) - after 2 straight wins by 21 or more points against opponent after trailing in their previous game by 17 or more points at the half are 25-3 ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Take Florida Atlantic.

6* Saturday NCAAF *UPSET SPECIAL* on Tulane +8

The Key: The Tulane Green Wave are 5-6 and one win away from a bowl game.  The SMU Mustangs are 6-5 and have already clinched a bowl.  The Mustangs have not played with much intensity the last three weeks, going 0-3 SU & 1-2 ATS in their last 3 games since clinching a bowl.  I don't expect them to show up this week either.  Tulane has won 2 in a row over ECU and Houston just to put itself in this position to make a bowl.  I think they finish the deal here and pull the upset.  The matchup couldn't be better for the triple-option attack of Tulane, which averages 237 rushing yards per game and 4.9 per carry.  SMU has been awful against the run this season, giving up 217 rushing yards per game and 5.1 per carry.  They gave up 559 rushing yards to Navy and 33 to Memphis the past 2 weeks.  The Green Wave are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.  The Mustangs are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall.  The Green Wave are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 trips to SMU.  Take Tulane.

7* Cal/UCLA NCAAF Friday Night Lights on California +7

The Key: The California Golden Bears are 7-4 ATS this season and have been consistently undervalued.  They gave Stanford all they wanted on the road last week as 14-point underdogs in a 14-17 loss.  They had a bye coming into that game, so they should still be fresh for UCLA here.  The Bruins have been overrated all season and are 5-6 SU & 4-7 ATS.  It's likely Jim Mora will be fired at season's end.  The Bruins put a lot into their 23-28 loss at USC last week, and they won't be nearly as motivated to play Cal this week.  The Bruins will have played for a 7th straight week here and will be the more tired team on this short week.  The Golden Bears are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. a team with a losing record.  The Bruins are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games following an ATS win.  Take California.

7* Giants/Redskins NFC East Game of the Month on New York +7.5

The Key: The Giants have gone 6-2 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last 8 meetings with the Redskins.  They haven't lost any of their last 10 meetings with the Redskins by more than 6 points.  The Redskins being 7.5-point favorites in this game is a big line mistake from the books, especially with all of the injuries they are dealing with right now.  The offensive line is banged up, the front 7 defensively is missing key players, and the top two running games in Chris Thompson and Rob Kelley are out for the season.  The Redskins are just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games.  The underdog is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings.  Take New York.

6* Tuesday NCAAF *CA$H COW* on Akron -15

The Key: The Akron Zips are playing for everything tonight.  A win would send them to the MAC Championship Game to face Toledo.  They put themselves in this position by upsetting Ohio 37-34 last week as 15.5-point underdogs.  Freshman QB Nelson has given this offense a spark since starting two games ago.  He threw for 322 yards and 4 touchdowns against Ohio, while also adding 45 yards on the ground.  He is the most talented QB on Akron's roster and has a bright future with the program.  Not only is Kent State just 2-9 SU, but also 3-8 ATS this season.  The staggering stat is that all 9 of Kent State's losses have come by 14 points or more, and Akron is only being asked to cover 15 points at home tonight.  Kent State is 1-10 ATS after having lost 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games over the last 3 seasons.  Akron is 8-1 ATS after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games over the last 3 seasons.  The Zips are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 conference games.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.  The Zips are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home meetings.  Take Akron.

7* Falcons/Seahawks NFL *Total* Annihilator on OVER 44.5

The Key: The two meetings between the Seahawks and Falcons last season saw 50 and 56 combined points.  I think we get another shootout here Monday night.  The Falcons and Seahawks have two of the better offenses in the NFL statistically.  The Seahawks aren't as formidable on D as they once were, especially with all their injuries right now. The Legion of Boom secondary is only a shell of its former self with all of the injuries.  Richard Sherman is out for the season, and Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor are both banged up.  Fellow cornerback Shaquille Griffin is also hurt.  Matt Ryan should carve up their defense, and Russell Wilson is fully capable of keeping pace with all of the weapons at his disposal.  6 of the last 7 meetings in this series have seen 50 or more combined points.  Atlanta & Seattle have averaged 57.7 combined points per game in those 7 meetings.  Take the OVER.

6* Bills/Chargers AFC *CA$H COW* on Buffalo +4.5

The Key: The Los Angeles Chargers just can't cover the spread as favorites, let alone win games.  The last 27 times that the Chargers have been favored by 1 to 5 points, they have actually lost the game outright 18 times.  Bets on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (BUFFALO) - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3 PPG differential.), after scoring 14 points or less last game are 64-28 ATS since 1983.  The price is right to pull the trigger on the Bills this week thanks to their blowout loss to the Saints last week.  Look for them to likely win this game outright.  Take Buffalo.

6* Sunday NFL *Total* Annihilator on Rams/Vikings OVER 45.5

The Key: Two of the better offensive teams in the NFL square off Sunday when the Rams play the Vikings in a dome built for scoring.  The Rams are putting up 32.9 PPG and averaging 389 YPG and 6.2 YPP this season.  The Vikings are scoring 24.1 PPG, averaging 364 YPG and 5.7 YPP this year.  The Rams have scored 33-plus in 3 straight and 4 of their last 6.  The Vikings have scored 71 combined points in their last 2 games and Case Keenum has been better than he is getting credit for.  The Rams are 13-3 OVER in their last 16 after allowing 17 points or less in 3 straight.  Minnesota is 29-13 OVER in its last 42 vs. teams who average 7.5 or more passing yards per attempt.  Bets on the OVER on road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (LA RAMS) - quick starting offensive team - scoring 14+ PPG in the first half, after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games are 29-7 over the last 10 seasons.  Take the OVER.

7* NFL Dog of the Month on Cleveland Browns +8

The Key: The Cleveland Browns have kept fighting.  They are trying to win games, and that was evident last week.  But once again they shot themselves in the foot despite outplaying the Lions for most of the game.  They had a 7-point lead late in the 3rd quarter, but Deshon Kizer got hurt and they went backwards on offense.  Kizer returned to lead them down the field, but threw an INT on first and goal from the 5 to lost 24-38 and fail to cover as 10-point underdogs.  They also had the clock run out on them on the 1-yard line on the final play before halftime.  They outgained the Lions 413 to 345 for the game.  The Browns have one of the better defenses in the NFL.  The key to stopping the Jaguars is stopping the run, and the Browns do a great job of that.  They are only giving up 86 rushing yards per game and 3.1 per carry.  That's very good when you consider they have been trailing for the majority of their games, and the opponents have been wanting to run the football.  Bets on home dogs or PK who failed to cover 2 of their last 3, a team that's winning 25% or less of their games playing a team with a winning record in the 2nd half of the season are 71-33 ATS since 1983.  Take Cleveland.

6* Utah/Washington Pac-12 *BAILOUT* on Utah +17.5

The Key: The Washington Huskies just blew their chances of winning the Pac-12 and making the four-team playoff with their 22-30 loss at Stanford last week.  Now, since they can't win either, I don't expect them to be fully focused on this game against Utah.  And I think they would need to be to cover this inflated 17.5-point spread.  Utah needs another win to get to a bowl game and will be motivated.  Especially after they gave away their game against Washington State last week, committing 7 turnovers and still only losing 25-33.  Utah has played Washington extremely tough the past two years.  They won 34-23 as 3-point road dogs in 2015 and only lost 24-31 as 10-point home dogs last year.  Utah is 6-0 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.  The Utes are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games.  The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.  Take Utah.

6* Conference USA Game of the Week on Florida International +14.5

The Key: The FAU Owls are starting to get too much love now after winning 6 straight and covering the spread in 5 of those.  But it's a bit of a fraudulent run considering the Owls have been outgained in 4 of those 6 games.  I think this spread would be smaller had FIU not gotten upset by ODU last week.  It would have been for first place in the conference because FIU is 4-2 and FAU is 6-0.  I actually think that benefits FIU more here because FAU knows it can afford a loss and still win its side of Conference USA.  I think FIU will be the more motivated team to prove that they are the best team in the division.  FAU can lose this game and then win at lowly Charlotte next week and still win the division, and that has to be in the back of their minds.  Either way, getting 14.5 points here is a nice price because there isn't that big of a difference separating these two teams.  It's just an inflated number, period.  FAU is 9-23 ATS in its last 32 as a home favorite.  The Owls are 4-14-1 ATS in their last 19 home games.  The dog is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.  The Golden Panthers are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.  Take Florida International.

7* Big 12 Game of the Year on Kansas +38

The Key: The Oklahoma Sooners are coming off two straight massive wins against their top two contenders in the Big 12.  They beat Oklahoma State 62-52 and TCU 38-20.  Off those two huge wins, it's only human nature for them to suffer a letdown this week.  I'm not saying they'll lose to Kansas, but they certainly won't be focused enough to beat them by more than 38 points.  Kansas is improving down the stretch going 2-1 ATS in its last 3 games.  It only loss 20-30 at home to Kansas State as 25.5-point dogs and gained 482 total yards on the Wildcats.  The Jayhawks only lost 27-42 at Texas last week despite committing 4 turnovers.  That's a great showing against a good Texas defense.  The Jayhawks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 November games.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.  Take Kansas.

7* NFL Total of the Week on Titans/Steelers OVER 44

The Key: The Pittsburgh Steelers have cluster injuries on their defense right now.  Safety Mike Mitchell probably won't play tonight, and CB Joe Haden has been lost for the season.  Veteran stalwart James Harrison is also questionable with a bad back.  The Titans have one of the better offenses in the NFL and will be able to move the ball and score points on the Steelers' defense.  But the Titans have a poor defense that gives up 23.7 PPG this season despite playing mostly suspect offenses.  Against the better offenses they faced, they gave up 57 points to Houston, 27 to Seattle and 26 to Oakland.  Pittsburgh qualifies as a good offensive football team.  Take the OVER.

7* EMU/Miami Ohio MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Miami -2.5

The Key: The Miami Redhawks need to win their final 2 games to make a bowl game.  I like their outlook now with Gus Ragland back at quarterback.  He returned from injury last week to lead the Redhawks to a 24-14 home victory over Akron, throwing 3 touchdown passes in the process.  The Eastern Michigan Eagles are 3-7 and have no hopes of making a bowl game now.  The motivation and the situation really favor the Redhawks, who have outgained 8 of their 10 opponents this season.  That is the sign of an 8-2 team, not one that is just 4-6 right now.  Take Miami Ohio.

7* Dolphins/Panthers NFL *Total* Annihilator on OVER 38

The Key: In today's NFL, it's tough to set any total under 40 points.  This is a passing league and there's just so many variables that favor the offenses.  I think this 38-point total has clearly been set too low tonight.  The Dolphins have a better passing attack right now than they've had all season with Jay Cutler and DeVantae Parker back healthy.  Cutler completed 34 of 42 passes for 309 yards and 3 touchdowns in his return from injury against the Raiders last week.  He'll have to air it out to try and keep up with the Panthers in this one.  Bets on the OVER on any team against the total (CAROLINA) - an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential) against a terrible team (worse than -7 PPG differential), after allowing 17 points or less in 3 straight games are 28-5 since 1983.  Take the OVER.

6* Cowboys/Falcons NFC *CA$H COW* on Atlanta -3

The Key: The season is on the line for the Atlanta Falcons this week.  They can't afford a loss to the Cowboys if they want to make the playoffs.  They already trail the Saints and Panthers within their division, and the Cowboys are a team they will be fighting with for a wild card spot.  The Falcons have played 3 straight on the road and will be happy to return home this week.  They get 4 of their next 5 games at home and this is a stretch where they can really make some hay.  But because they have lost 4 of their last 5, they are only laying 3 points here to a Cowboys team that is without Ezekiel Elliott, has both Dez Bryant and Terrance Williams banged up, and are likely to be without tackle Tyron Smith.  The Cowboys are getting a lot of love from the books right now due to their 3 straight wins over the 49ers, Redskins and Chiefs.  Dallas is 9-23 ATS in its last 32 road games after covering the spread in 3 of its last 4 games coming in.  Take Atlanta.

6* AFC Game of the Week on Jacksonville Jaguars -4.5

The Key: This matchup couldn't be better for the Jacksonville Jaguars.  They lead the NFL record in sacks by a wide margin, and they are on pace to set the record for most sacks in a season.  Their pass defense is also 1st in the NFL by a landslide as they give up just 156 passing yards per game and 4.9 per attempt.  That's unheard of in today's NFL.  Now they're up against a Chargers team with an immobile quarterback that almost exclusively relies on the pass to move the football.  And the Chargers only rush 22 times per game for 89 yards per game.  Leonard Fournette is back from suspension and will be able to run on a Chargers' defense that is one of the worst in the NFL against the run, giving up 135 rushing yards per game and 4.6 per carry.  The Chargers are 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a loss.  Los Angeles is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.  The Jaguars are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 vs. AFC opponents.  Take Jacksonville.

7* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Year on Buffalo Bills +3

The Key: The Buffalo Bills have one of the more underrated home-field advantages in the NFL.  The Bills are 4-0 at home this year while beating their opponents by 10.5 points per game.  Now Tyrod Taylor will have two key weapons back this week in Charles Clay and Kelvin Benjamin.  Clay still leads the team in receiving despite not playing since Week 5, so he is very important.  Benjamin will play in his first game in a Bills' uniform since being traded from Carolina.  The Saints are getting a lot of respect now after winning 6 in a row.  But their opponents have been lackluster to say the least.  They beat a banged-up Cam Newton and the Panthers, Jay Cutler and the Dolphins, Matt Stafford and the Lions, Brett Hundley and the Packers, Mitchell Trubisky and the Bears and a banged-up Jameis Winston and the Bucs.  They have only played one true road game in their last five games.  Now they have to head up to Buffalo and play outdoors in the cold weather, which hasn't been a good combination for Drew Brees in the past.  The Bills have extra time to prepare after playing the Jets last Thursday.  New Orleans is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 after covering 6 or 7 of its last 8 against the spread.  Buffalo is 26-12 ATS at home in its last 38 games during weeks 10 through 13.  Bets against favorites (NEW ORLEANS) - excellent offensive team - scoring 27 or more points/game, after allowing 14 points or less in 2 straight game are 27-7 ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Take Buffalo.

6* SEC Game of the Week on Missouri -12.5

The Key: Don't look now but the Missouri Tigers are 4-5 and just two wins away from bowl eligibility.  That didn't look possible after their 1-5 start, but they have since reeled off 3 straight blowout victories over Idaho 68-21, Connecticut 52-12 and Florida 45-16.  I know Florida is down this season, but that 29-point win was impressive nonetheless.  And now the Tigers face another down team in Tennessee, which has lost 4 of its last 5 games coming in.  The Vols winning 24-10 last week over Southern Miss was a bit fluky because they only managed 210 total yards.  And their offense has been awful, getting shut out against Georgia, scoring just 9 against South Carolina, and managing only 7 against Alabama.  They haven't topped 26 points in any of their last 7 games coming in.  They don't have the firepower to keep up with the Tigers here.  The Vols are 8-23-1 ATS in their last 32 games following an ATS win.  The Tigers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall, and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing record.  Take Missouri.

7* Pac-12 Game of the Year on Utah +1.5

The Key: Salt Lake City is one of the toughest places to play in college football.  Utah Utes' fans are right on top of you, and it makes is a heck of a home-field advantage.  Washington State is 1-2 in true road games with its only win coming against banged-up Oregon.  The Cougars were blown out by mediocre teams in California 3-37 and Arizona 37-58 in their other two road games.  Mike Leach is 0-9 ATS after having won 8 or more of his last 10 games in all games he has coached.  He has lost in this spot by 14.7 PPG on average.  The Cougars are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games.  Take Utah.

6* Conference USA Game of the Week on Middle Tennessee -12.5

The Key: Brent Stockstill is back and healthy at quarterback under head coach Rick Stockstill.  It was a rough go of it without him.  But it's no surprised that as soon as Stockstill returned to the lineup, the Blue Raiders blew out UTEP 30-3 as 17.5-point favorites last week.  Now they get to face a 1-8 Charlotte team and still need two more wins to get bowl eligible.  Charlotte was awful in a 6-0 loss at Old Dominion last week.  They stand no chance of even being competitive against Middle Tennessee tis week.  They are scoring just 12.9 PPG on the season and won't be able to keep up with Stockstill and company.  Middle Tennessee is 8-1 ATS off 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers over the last 3 seasons.  The 49ers are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 home games.  Take Middle Tennessee.

6* Big Ten Game of the Week on Michigan State +17

The Key: The Michigan State Spartans have outgained 8 of their 9 opponents this season.  They just don't get any love from the books despite being one of the better teams in the country.  In Mark Dantonio I trust when it comes to being an underdog.  In his last 21 games as an underdog, he has pulled off the upset 14 times, going 17-4 ATS against the number.  The Spartans were double-digit dogs against both Michigan and Penn State earlier this season, and pulled off the outright upsets in both of those games.  The last 6 meetings between Michigan State and Ohio State have all been decided by 12 points or fewer.  Take Michigan State.

6* Big 12 Game of the Week on Iowa State +7

The Key: Oklahoma State is in a prime hangover spot here and is unlikely to show up at Iowa State Saturday. The Cowboys just lost to Oklahoma 52-62 last week.  Off a loss against their biggest rivals, they won't be too excited to play the Cyclones this week.  Iowa State controls its own destiny in terms of making the Big 12 Championship.  Win out and they're in the title game.  They only lost by 7 at Oklahoma State last year and by 4 at home to Oklahoma State in 2015, both times blowing double-digit leads in the 4th quarter.  I think they exorcise their demons and get the win here Saturday against the Cowboys.  The Cyclones are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games.  Take Iowa State.

7* BYU/UNLV NCAAF Friday Night Lights on UNLV -2.5

The Key: What more could possibly go wrong for BYU?  The Cougars are 2-8 on the season and just lost starting quarterback Tanner Mangum to a torn Achilles last game.  Their interest level is at an all-time low right now.  UNLV, on the other hand, is 4-5 with a legitimate shot to make a bowl game.  The Rebels have put themselves in this position by winning their last two.  They won 26-16 at Fresno State as 21.5-point dogs, and beat Hawaii 31-23 as 8-point home favorites.  Now they basically just have to win by a field goal to cover against BYU tonight.  The Cougars are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  The Rebels are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games overall.  Take UNLV.

7* Seahawks/Cardinals NFC West *HEAVY HITTER* on Arizona +7

The Key: The Arizona Cardinals are looking at this game like a must-win.  They trail the Rams by two games and the Seahawks by one game within their own division.  They have to win this game if they want any hope of making the playoffs.  They had a bye two weeks ago, which should help keep them fresh after beating the 49ers 20-10 last week and working on this short week.  The Seahawks have a lot of injuries right now, most notably along the offensive line and to safety Earl Thomas, plus several players in the defensive front seven.  Given their current state, the Seahawks can't be laying a touchdown on the road here.  The Cardinals are 10-2 ATS as a home underdog of 7 points or less under Bruce Arians.  Take Arizona.

6* Ball State/NIU MAC *CA$H COW* on Ball State +32

The Key: The price is too good to pass up with Ball State catching 32 points tonight.  No doubt they have been terrible, going 0-6 SU & 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games.  However, it's also true that they haven't been this big of an underdog all season.  And they've played much better teams than Northern Illinois.  The Huskies had their biggest game of the season last week and lost 17-27 to Toledo, and now lose out on the tiebreaker with the Rockets to win the MAC West.  They should still be reeling from that defeat and won't bring their 'A' game against Ball State this week, feeling like they can just show up to win.  The Cardinals are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games after allowing 37 points or more in 2 straight games.  Ball State is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 road games versus good rushing defenses who give up 120 or fewer rushing yards per game.  Take Ball State.

7* EMU/CMU MAC Game of the Week on Eastern Michigan -2

The Key: The Eastern Michigan Eagles have been a hard-luck team all season.  They are just 3-6, but all 6 of their losses came by 7 points or less and by a combined 23 points.  They took out their frustration with a 56-14 beat down of Ball State last week.  And they still have a very good shot to make a bowl game with winnable games against Central Michigan, Miami Ohio and Bowling Green still to come.  The Eagles are 10-1 ATS in all road games over the last 2 seasons.  They get the win and cover here against Central Michigan.  Take Eastern Michigan.

7* Bowling Green/Buffalo MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Buffalo -7.5

The Key: The Buffalo Bulls have been a hard-luck team this season.  They are just 3-6, but 4 of their 6 losses have come by 4 points or less.  They are clearly better than their record.  They still have a chance to make a bowl considering they host Bowling Green and travel to Ball State next week, which should get them to 5-6 with Ohio at home in their finale.  Ohio may have nothing to play for in that game.  So the outlook for getting to a bowl game is still pretty good.  Bowling Green is just 2-7 with its only wins coming against Kent State and Miami Ohio.  The Falcons are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  The Bulls are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall, including 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games.  Take Buffalo.

7* Lions/Packers NFC North *HEAVY HITTER* on Green Bay +3

The Key: The Green Bay Packers have won 24 of their last 25 home meetings with the Lions dating back to 1992.  Now they are home dogs here Monday night.  Granted, Aaron Rodgers isn't playing, but Brett Hundley should be much better than he was in his first career start against the Saints.  He has had two weeks to get ready for the Lions and that will certainly help.  It will also help that the Packers have a healthy offensive line for the first time this season now.  Take Green Bay.

7* Cardinals/49ers NFC West *HEAVY HITTER* on Arizona -2

The Key: The Arizona Cardinals played in London two weeks ago.  They then had their bye last week.  Teams in this situation have been tremendous bets the first game back from their bye.  Teams returning from London off their bye are 9-0-1 ATS since 2015.  The 49ers are a mess right now with all of their injuries along the offensive line and receiver.  Joe Staley is out, and Trent Grown and Gary Gilliam are questionable.  Pierre Garcon is out for the season.  CJ Bethard never had a chance, and now they have Jimmy Garoppolo waiting in the wings.  Bethard gets thrown to the wolves one last time here Sunday.  Take Arizona.

6* Rams/Giants NFC *CA$H COW* on Los Angeles -5.5

The Key: The Los Angeles Rams played in London two weeks ago.  They then had their bye last week.  Teams in this situation have been tremendous bets the first game back from their bye.  Teams returning from London off their bye are 9-0-1 ATS since 2015. The Rams are the healthiest team in the NFL right now and could easily be 6-1 instead of 5-2.  The Giants have a laundry list of injuries and won't be competitive the rest of the way after their 1-6 start.  This is a complete mismatch ladies and gents.  Take Los Angeles.

6* Bucs/Saints NFC South *CA$H COW* on Tampa Bay +7

The Key: The Tampa Bay Bucs are playing with their season on the line today.  At 2-5, and with the Saints at 5-2, their season is essentially over if they lose this game.  They should be playing with a chip on their shoulder here.  The Bucs still have the talent to match the Saints.  And they are catching 7 points, which is a ton when you consider each of the last 6 meetings in this series have been decided by 7 points or less.  The Buccaneers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a double-digit loss at home.  Take Tampa Bay.

6* AAC Game of the Week on SMU +14.5

The Key: The SMU Mustangs are one of the best teams the UCF Knights have played this year.  It's time to fade UCF this week after they have opened 7-0 SU & 6-0 ATS.  They have yet to lose against the spread.  But now they're up against an SMU that can and will score on them.  The Mustangs average 41.5 PPG, including 48.6 PPG at home.  The Mustangs are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS at home this year, winning by an average of 22.8 PPG.  Bets on underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (SMU) - after having won 4 out of their last 5 games, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a winning record are 30-5 ATS over the last 5 seasons.  Take SMU.

6* Mountain West Game of the Week on Nevada +20.5

The Key: The Boise State Broncos haven't covered a spread at home since 2015.  The Broncos are 0-10 ATS in their last 10 home games.  Nevada has covered 3 in a row with a 3-point loss to Air Force and a 2-point loss to Colorado State, two of the better teams in the Mountain West.  And the Wolf Pack are coming off their bye week.  They can hang around here.  Take Nevada.

6* Ohio State/Iowa Big Ten *CA$H COW* on Iowa +18.5

The Key: This is a bad spot for Ohio State.  The Buckeyes came back from a 35-20 deficit in the 4th quarter to beat Penn State 39-38 and avenge their overtime loss last year that cost them the Big Ten title.  If they were ever going to come out flat, it would be this week in Iowa City.  Iowa has only lost 8 of its last 115 home games by more than one score, and 4 of the last 115 by more than 2 scores.  The Hawkeyes just have a knack for playing Top 5 teams tough in Iowa City.  We saw them upset Michigan as 21-point dogs last year, and they nearly upset Penn State as 13-point dogs earlier this season.  The Nittany Lions needed a TD on the final play of the game to beat them.  Take Iowa.

7* Big Ten Game of the Year on Michigan State +10

The Key: Penn State is a bad spot here.  They are deflated after blowing a big lead to lose to Ohio State 39-38 last week.  And after back-to-back emotional games against Michigan and Ohio State, they won't have much left in the tank here.  Michigan State only has one Big Ten loss and is still very much alive to win the conference.  I think the Spartans come to play today and pull off the upset.  The Spartans have outgained 7 of their 8 opponents this year and are one of the most improved teams in the country.  Penn State is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses over the last 3 seasons.  Michigan State is 7-0 ATS in home games in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.  Take Michigan State.

6* Big 12 Game of the Week on Kansas +7.5

The Key: Both the Baylor Bears and Kansas Jayhawks have their best chance to get a Big 12 win this week because they play each other.  I think the Jayhawks at home have the better shot of getting that win, and we're getting 7.5 points with them.  They are coming off one of their best performances of the season.  They lost 20-30 to Kansas State as 25.5-point dogs and should have won that game.  They racked up 482 total yards on a good K-State defense, including 418 through the air.  Baylor is 2-10 ATS as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.  The Bears are 1-9 ATS off a home games over the last 2 years.  The Jayhawks are 9-1 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. bad defensive teams who give up 34 or more points per game.  Take Kansas.

7* UCLA/Utah NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Utah -7

The Key: Josh Rosen has a hand injury and will be a game-time decision tonight.  I would like Utah at -7 whether or not he plays, but if he doesn't it would obviously he would be a huge bonus.  Rosen hasn't practiced all week.  The Utes are hungry for a victory after losing 4 straight against a brutal schedule of Stanford, USC, ASU and Oregon.  Playing in the friendly confines of Salt Lake City tonight should help them get back on track.  The Bruins are 2-4 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games and have been overvalued all year.  They don't play any defense, giving up 37.6 points per game overall, including 49.2 points per game on the road.  They are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS on the road this year and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games overall.  Take Utah.

7* Bills/Jets AFC East *HEAVY HITTER* on New York +3.5

The Key: I like backing underdogs with divisional revenge in mind.  The Jets lost to the Bills 21-12 on the road back in Week 1 in their first meeting.  But this has been a much better Jets team since then.  The Jets are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall while going 3-3 straight up and their 3 losses coming to the Pats by 7, Falcons by 5 and Dolphins by 3.  So they have been competitive in every game with a chance to win late.  And getting 3.5 points here is a nice value as this game could easily be decided by a field goal.  The Jets are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games and 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  They are also 19-6 ATS in their last 25 home games off a home loss.  Give me New York.

6* Navy/Temple AAC *CA$H COW* on Temple +7.5

The Key: I think the situation really favors the Temple Owls here.  Temple just faced a triple-option team in Army last time out, giving up a late touchdown and losing 28-31 in OT on the road.  So they were well-versed in the option right now and had their bye last week to get even more ready for it.  The Owls have played much better of late and should be 3-0 in their last 3 games instead of 1-2, which is keeping them undervalued.  Temple outgained ECU by 236 yards in a 34-10 road win, outginaed UConn by 225 yards in a 24-28 home loss, and then outgained Army by 117 yards in that overtime defeat.  Navy has been outgained in 3 straight games. I think this Midshipmen team is much more vulnerable than most years.  They are 5-2, but 4 of those wins came by 10 points or less, so they haven't been blowing teams out.  Temple is 8-1 ATS as a dog of 3.5 to 10 points over the last 3 seasons.  The Owls are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Temple.

7* Miami/Ohio MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Miami +10

The Key: The Miami Ohio Redhawks were expected to contend for a MAC title this year after going 6-0 over their final 6 regular season games last year.  They brought back 17 starts from that team.  So their 3-5 start comes as a bit of a surprise, and it has them getting zero respect from the books right now.  Conversely, Ohio is coming off back-to-back blowout wins over Bowling Green and Kent State and getting a lot of love.  But this is a team that lost to Central Michigan 23-26 at home prior to those two wins against MAC bottom feeders.  A big reason for the Redhawks' struggles is that they have been without starting QB Gus Ragland, who is a game-time decision tonight and may return since they had extra time before this game after last playing on November 21st.  The Redhawks still have a shot at a bowl game and will be fighting tooth and nail to get back to one.  The Bobcats are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.  The Redhawks are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 road games.  Take Miami Ohio.

7* Broncos/Chiefs AFC West *HEAVY HITTER* on Kansas City -7

The Key: The Denver Broncos have lost their two road games a a combined 47-16 this season.  Those were to the Bills and Chargers.  Now they face their toughest road test of the season and the best team they have faced all year.  And they are banged up at receiver and along the offensive line.  They get a hungry Chiefs team coming off consecutive losses and on extra rest after playing last Thursday, and Andy Reid is the best in the business when given extra time to prepare.  Take Kansas City.

6* Steelers/Lions Sunday Night *BAILOUT* on Pittsburgh -3

The Key: The Detroit Lions are coming off a bye, which is keeping this line shorter than it should be.  But they have some key injuries still that the are dealing with along the offensive line and at receiver.  And I think that they are still overvalued due to their 3-1 start, but we've seen their true colors show in their last two games with a 24-27 home loss to the Panthers and a 38-52 road loss to the Saints.  But those games were bigger blowouts than the final scores as the Lions made late runs in both.  They trailed the Panthers 27-10 and the Saints 45-10.  The Steelers look like perhaps the best team in the NFL right now with their 19-13 road win over the Chiefs and their 29-14 home win over the Bengals.  They have one of the league's top defenses, and Le'Veon Bell cannot be stopped.  The Steelers are 9-1 ATS after going over the total in their previous game over the last 3 seasons.  Take Pittsburgh.

6* Sunday NFL *Total* Annihilator on Raiders/Bills OVER 46

The Key: The matchup here favors the over.  Derek Carr threw for 417 yards last week, and the Raiders will have to almost exclusively throw the ball now that Marshawn Lynch has been suspended for this game.  And the Bills have given up over 700 passing yards combined in their last 2 games due to all of their injuries in the secondary.  The Bills will be able to move the ball at will on this weak Raiders defense as well.  The OVER is 13-3 in Bills last 16 home games.  The OVER is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings.  The OVER is 10-1 in all Bills home games over the last 2 seasons.  Take the OVER.

7* NFC Game of the Year on San Francisco 49ers +13

The Key: The Philadelphia Eagles are getting too much respect from oddsmakers now after their 6-1 start to the season.  It's time to fade away in this flat spot for them off their big win over the Redskins on Monday Night football, which makes it a short week for them as well.  It's also time to back the 49ers off their 30-point loss to the Cowboys as the public perception of them is way down right now.  But they had lost 5 straight games by 3 points or fewer prior to that blowout defeat, so they are clearly capable of being competitive.  Bets on dogs is 10.5 or more points off a loss y 14 points or more against an opponent who scored 30 or more points last game are 26-4 ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Take San Francisco.

6* Mississippi State/Texas A&M SEC *CA$H COW* on Texas A&M +2.5

The Key: Wrong team favored here.  Texas A&M is coming off its bye week and will be ready for Mississippi State both from preparation and rest standpoints.  The Aggies played Alabama tougher than anyone this season, only losing 19-27 as 25-point home dogs.  Maybe even more impressive was the fact that they didn't have a letdown the next week and beat Florida 19-17 on the road.  Mississippi State's last two road games have resulted in 3-31 and 10-49 blowout losses at Georgia and Auburn, respectively.  College Station is still one of the tougher places to play in college football.  Texas A&M was favored by 10 at Mississippi State last year and lost outright 28-35.  So it's a revenge game, and now they are dogs at home this time around AND off a bye.  The price is too good to pass up.  Take Texas A&M.

7* NCAAF Blowout Game of the Year on Florida Atlantic -6.5

The Key: The Florida Atlantic Owls are absolutely rolling right now.  And the markets haven't caught up to them yet.  They still haven't caught up to them this week.  They have gone 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games.  They get quick-strike touchdowns that their opponents can't get.  It's an FAU team that has hung 58 and 69 points in their last two games.  Western Kentucky has been getting too much respect in the betting markets all season with a 1-5-1 ATS record.  They have some awful performances against bad teams, including their 35-31 win over Old Dominion, the same ODU team that FAU waxed 58-28.  Take Florida Atlantic.

6* Penn State/Ohio State Big Ten *CA$H COW* on UNDER 58

The Key: With the Big Ten title basically on the line in this game, I expect it to be played closer to the vest.  What I mean by that is fewer chances taken and field position being the priority.  Both teams will be tight for this game.  And there's no question that these are the two best defenses that these teams have faced all season.  Penn State is allowing 9.6 PPG and 283 YPG and 4.0 YPP.  Ohio State is allowing 15.4 PPG, 305 YPG and 4.5 YPP.  Weather may be an issue as well with rain forecast for Saturday.  Take the UNDER.