Sports Picks & Predictions

7* NFC South Game of the Year on Atlanta Falcons +14 

The Key: No analysis this weekend.  On vacation. 

6* NCAAF Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on BYU -17 

The Key: No analysis this weekend.  On vacation. 

6* NCAAF Mountain West *CA$H COW* on Utah State +6 

The Key: No analysis this weekend.  On vacation. 

7* LSU/Alabama SEC Total of the Year on UNDER 64 

The Key: No analysis this weekend.  On vacation. 

7* Chargers/Raiders AFC West *HEAVY HITTER* on Oakland +1.5 

The Key: The Raiders are hitting on all cylinders offensively with the balanced attack of Derek Carr’s precision passing and Josh Jacobs’ tough-nosed running.  The Raiders have reached or exceeded 24 points in 5 straight games.  The Chargers have scored 20 or fewer points in 6 of their last 8 games overall.  Philip Rivers is showing his age, and the Chargers have been a one-dimensional passing team.  I like backing home teams on Thursday nights, especially if they played at home the week before since there is no travel, which is the case for the Raiders after beating the Lions 31-24 in Oakland on Sunday.  The Raiders know this is their last season in Oakland, and they are showing out for their home fans.  The Raiders are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games.  Take Oakland. 

6* Temple/USF AAC *CA$H COW* on South Florida +2 

The Key: South Florida is hungry to make a bowl game this year.  The Bulls have won 3 of their last 4 by an average of 18 PPG and need this win against Temple to make a bowl as they sit at 4-4 with a tough schedule coming up after.  Temple has lost 2 straight by an average of 33 PPG.  I’m shocked they are road favorites here.  The Owls are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games.  The Bulls have been running the ball with authority on teams and will be able to run the ball on Temple tonight, which is going to be the difference in this game.  Take South Florida. 

6* Miami/Ohio MAC *CA$H COW* on Miami +7 

The Key: Miami Ohio has played a much tougher schedule than Ohio.  Both teams are 3-1 in conference play, but I believe the Redhawks are the better team and shouldn’t be catching a touchdown.  They have 3 common opponents.  Miami is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS against those same 3 teams that Ohio has played.  Miami is only giving up 20 PPG and 361.3 YPG against those 3 teams.  Ohio is 2-1 SU but 0-3 ATS against those 3 teams.  The Bobcats are allowing 32.3 PPG and 454.7 YPG against those teams.  It’s easy to side with the team with the much better defense tonight in the Redhawks.  The Redhawks are 7-0 ATS off 2 straight conference games over the last 2 years.  Take Miami. 

7* Cowboys/Giants NFC East *HEAVY HITTER* on New York +7 

The Key: The Giants want to avenge their season opening loss to the hated Cowboys on the road.  The Cowboys were 7-point home favorites in that game, and now they are 7-point road favorites in the rematch.  That’s essentially a 6-point adjustment since the start of the season when you adjust for home-field advantage and I believe it’s too much.  The Giants have been a lot more competitive since Daniel Jones took over at quarterback.  They only have 2 losses by more than 6 points in Jones’ 6 starts this year and those came against the Vikings and Patriots.  And they had a bunch of injuries in those 2 games, but are now as healthy as they have been at any point this season.  The Giants will be able to stay within a touchdown of the Cowboys at home tonight and could pull off the upset.  After all, the Cowboys lost outright to the Jets as 7-point favorites in their last road game.  Take New York. 

7* AFC Game of the Month on Cleveland Browns -4 

The Key: The Browns have played one of the toughest schedules (4th) in the NFL this season.  They have a great chance to make up some ground in the AFC North starting with a win Sunday at the lowly Denver Broncos.  It’s a Broncos team that is 2-6 on the season and will now be without Joe Flacco for the foreseeable future.  They are forced to start Brandon Allen at quarterback.  I can’t see that going very well for Allen, especially since the Broncos have one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL, while the Browns have a solid pass rush.  Take Cleveland. 

6* Bucs/Seahawks NFC *CA$H COW* on Tampa Bay +5 

The Key: The Tampa Bay Bucs have played one of the toughest schedules (2nd) in the NFL this year.  The Seattle Seahawks have faced a much easier schedule (23rd) . I actually think the Bucs are the better team in this matchup despite the difference in records with the Bucs being 2-5 and the Seahawks being 6-2.  The Seahawks are just 2-2 at home this year and their 2 wins came by a single point.  They are very close to being 0-4 at home this year.  The Seahawks are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games.  Take Tampa Bay. 

6* Titans/Panthers Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Carolina -3.5 

The Key: We are getting the Panthers cheap Sunday at home because they are coming off a blowout road loss to the 49ers.  That’s a 49ers team that is making a lot of teams look bad.  Kyle Allen is still 5-1 as a starter in his career and he led the Panthers to 4 straight wins prior to that defeat.  Look for the Panthers to bounce back at home today.  The Titans come in getting too much respect from the books after winning 2 straight home games against the Chargers and Bucs.  They easily could have lost both of those games and were fortunate to win both.  Now Ryan Tannehill has to make his first road start of the year.  Things won’t be easy for him as the Titans are banged up.  They will be without C Ben Jones and TE Delanie Walker.  They will also be without arguably their best defender in DT Jurrell Casey.  Ron Rivera is 9-2 ATS off a blowout road loss by 14 points or more as the coach of the Panthers.  Take Carolina. 

6* SEC Game of the Week on Vanderbilt +16 

The Key: The South Carolina Gamecocks upset Georgia 20-17 three weeks ago as 20.5-point dogs.  They didn’t deserve to win that game, but since they did they are still getting too much credit for it.  They have since gone on to lose and fail to cover against both Florida (27-38) and Tennessee (21-41).  Now they’re being asked to lay a ridiculous 16 points to Vanderbilt.  This is a Vanderbilt team coming off their bye week following a 21-14 upset win over Missouri as 21.5-point dogs.  There was nothing fluky about that win either as they won the box score against the Tigers.  The Commodores still feel like they can make a bowl game and they know they need this win here if they are going to make a run at one.  The Commodores are 6-0 ATS after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games over the last 2 years.  The Gamecocks are 5-13-1 ATS in their last 14 against a team with a losing record.  The Commodores are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 November games.  Take Vanderbilt. 

6* NCAAF Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Tennessee -12.5 

The Key: Give Tennessee coach Jeremy Pruitt credit for not losing his team after a tough 1-4 start.  They have gone 2-1 since with their only loss to Alabama on the road in a game in which they played the Crimson Tide a lot tougher than the 13-35 final would indicate.  And they’ve pulled off 2 upset home wins over Mississippi State 20-10 as 5-point dogs and South Carolina 41-21 as 4-point dogs.  Even their 14-43 loss at Georgia was misleading the previous week because they were only down 15 with 6 minutes to go.  The Vols have covered the spread by a combined 51.5 points in their last 3 games so they are grossly underrated right now.  Now they are laying less than 2 touchdowns to UAB this week.  UAB was great last year, and they are 6-1 this year, but they are nowhere near as good as that record.  They have faced the 189th-ranked schedule in the country as there are actually 58 FCS teams that have played a more difficult schedule!  Their 6 wins have come against Alabama State, Akron, South Alabama, Rice, UTSA and ODU.  Their only loss came against the toughest team they faced in Western Kentucky.  And Tennessee is by far the best team that they will have faced now as the Blazers are at a huge talent disadvantage.  It’s an inexperienced UAB team that returned only 8 starters from last year’s very good team.  UAB is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 games after scoring 31 points or more in 2 straight games.  The Blazers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 against SEC teams.  Take Tennessee. 

7* Miami/Florida State ACC *HEAVY HITTER* on Florida State -3 

The Key: Both Miami and Florida State are 4-4 this season and in the midst of disappointing years.  However, the biggest difference is that Florida State (32nd) has played the tougher schedule than Miami (63rd).  And Florida State looks like a much better team with Alex Hornibrook as their starter.  Hornibrook has been a lot better than James Blackman.  Hornibrook is completing 68.4% of his passes averaging 8.7 YPA and has 6 touchdowns against only one interception.  Miami 17-12 win over Central Michigan at home as 30.5-point favorites showed everything you need to know about this team.  They went on to get upset by VA Tech at home as 14-point favorites the next week.  They were lucky to beat both Virginia and Pitt as they were outgained in both of those contests.  And they were also upset by Georgia Tech as 18.5-point home favorites.  This team just isn’t very good, especially offensively as they are playing musical chairs at quarterback.  The Seminoles are 24-11 ATS in their last 35 games with a line of +3 to -3.  The Hurricanes are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 road games and 6-14 ATS in their last 20 conference games.  Take Florida State. 

6* AAC Game of the Week on UCF -21.5 

The Key: UCF could should probably be 8-0 but they are 6-2 with their 2 losses coming by a combined 4 points both on the road at Cincinnati and Pitt.  Few teams have a more impressive win than the one the Knights pulled off last week.  They won 63-21 at Temple as 11-point favorites.  That’s a Temple team that has upset both Maryland and Memphis at home and are great as underdogs.  They had 348 more total yards than Temple in that game.  Now they will blow the doors off of Houston, which has decided to look to next year by redshirting their two best players at QB and WR.  The Cougars are just 3-5 this season and likely won’t even be going to a bowl game this year.  Their defense is giving up 462.7 YPG, which is bad news against a UCF offense that scores 46.6 PPG and averages 561.4 YPG.  The Knights are 6-0 ATS in home games after gaining 6.25 YPP or more in 2 consecutive games over the last 2 years.  Take UCF. 

6* MAC Game of the Week on Eastern Michigan +1 

The Key: Eastern Michigan is coming off a tough 3-point loss at Toledo.  I expect the Eagles to bounce back at home Saturday against the Buffalo Bills.  Buffalo is coming off a misleading 43-20 home win over Central Michigan.  That’s a CMU team that gave the game away with 5 turnovers.  This is an awful Buffalo offense that averages 355.1 YPG, including 351.5 YPG in conference play.  It’s a good time to jump on Eastern Michigan after failing to cover the spread in 4 of their last 5 games coming in.  I like this EMU offense that averages 414.5 YPG in conference play and is completing 66.6% of its passes for 288 YPG on the year.  The Eagles are 9-1 ATS off a conference loss over the last 3 seasons.  The Eagles are 8-0 ATS off a close conference loss by 7 points or less over the last 3 years.  The Bulls are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games.  The Eagles are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games following an ATS loss.  The home team is 4-0 SU in the last 4 meetings.  Take Eastern Michigan. 

7* Navy/UConn NCAAF Friday Night Lights on OVER 54 

The Key: The Navy Midshipmen have one of the most explosive offenses they’ve ever had this season.  They are scoring 37.9 PPG this season and it’s a big reason why they are 6-1.  They should be able to name their score against a soft Connecticut defense that yields 37.7 PPG on the year.  The Huskies have showed some offensive punch this season scoring at least 21 points in 5 of their 8 games, including 56 against UMass last week.  I think they can get to 21 here as well to help out this OVER.  The OVER is 6-1 in Navy’s last 7 games against a team with a losing record.  Take the OVER. 

7* 49ers/Cardinals NFC Total of the Month on OVER 43 

The Key: The 49ers will cover the majority of this total on their own.  They are scoring 29.6 PPG on the year and will shred an Arizona defense that ranks 29th in giving up 27.9 PPG and 407 YPG.  The Cardinals at least have a decent offense under Kliff Kingsbury and will get some points themselves.  This has the makings of somewhere in the neighborhood of a 30-20 final.  Bets on the OVER on road teams where the total is 42.5 to 49 off a home win by 10 points or more, undefeated on the season are 40-14 since 1983.  Take the OVER. 

6* WVU/Baylor Big 12 *CA$H COW* on Baylor -18 

The Key: The Baylor Bears have been flying under the radar this season despite being 7-0.  Now they get a chance to show the world how good they are at home on National TV Thursday night, and I think they come through with one of their best performances of the season because of it.  It’s not like the Bears are beating up on cupcakes.  They beat a very good Iowa State team at home, crushed Kansas State 31-12 on the road, and beat Oklahoma State 42-27 on the road.  That’s the same Kansas State team that just upset Oklahoma, and an Oklahoma State team that nearly beat Texas on the road and also just upset Iowa State on the road.  West Virginia is awful.  They lost at home to Texas by 11, at home to Iowa State by 24 and on the road to Oklahoma by 38.  They also lost at Missouri by 31 and have been very bad on the road.  Baylor is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games as a home favorite of 14.5 to 21 points.  Take Baylor. 

7* Monday Night Football Game of the Year on Miami Dolphins +15 

The Key: Ryan Fitzpatrick plays with a fire that is contagious.  He nearly led the Dolphins from 14 points down to beat the Redskins but just came up short on a 2-point conversion.  Then he nearly beat one of the best teams in the NFL on the road in the Bills last week, who were coming off their bye.  Fitzpatrick is ready for the big Monday Night Football stage now.  The Steelers aren’t good enough offensively to pull away from the Dolphins.  They are 28th in total offense.  I would argue the Dolphins are actually the better offensive team in this matchup with Fitzpatrick.  This line has gotten out of hand with Miami catching more than 2 touchdowns. The Steelers are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games off a bye week.  The Steelers are also 12-28 ATS in their last 40 games as a favorite of at least 10 points.  Take Miami. 

7* NFL Total of the Year on Packers/Chiefs OVER 47.5 

The Key: Oddsmakers have adjusted this total too much for Patrick Mahomes being out.  Andy Reid has 10 days to get Matt Moore ready to run this offense after the Chiefs last played on Thursday.  And I think the Chiefs will continue to be one of the best offensive teams in the NFL this week even with Moore at QB because the scheme is great and the weapons are some of the best in the NFL.  I also expect Aaron Rodgers to put up a ton of points and continue playing at an MVP level.  The Packers are putting up 30.6 PPG in their last 5 games overall.  Now they’ll be up against a Chiefs defense that ranks 25th in yielding 377.4 YPG.  And the Chiefs are likely to be without their 2 best pass rushers in Chris Jones and Frank Clark, as well as one of their top corners in Kendall Fuller.  The Packers are 26th in total defense at 381 YPG allowed.  They have recently allowed 563 yards to the Cowboys and 484 yards to the Raiders in 2 of their last 3 games coming in. The OVER is 19-7 in Packers last 26 road games.  The OVER is 8-2 in Chiefs last 10 against a team with a winning record.  The OVER is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.  Take the OVER. 

6* Cardinals/Saints NFC *CA$H COW* on Arizona +10.5 

The Key: The love for the New Orleans Saints is getting out of hand.  They are 6-1 this season and have covered 5 straight coming in.  The price is right to now go against them.  I think the Saints are making a mistake likely bringing back Drew Brees this week.  This line has gone to double-digits since that news came out.  And they could still be without Alvin Kamara.  The Cardinals are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last 3 games, yet they aren’t getting any credit for it.  Patrick Peterson recently returned from a 6-game suspension and has given the defense a big boost.  The Cardinals have stayed relatively healthy compared to most teams, too.  And Kyler Murray is starting to thrive in Kliff Kingsbury’s offense as the Cardinals are scoring 29 PPG in their last 3 games.  They have the firepower to hang with the Saints, and to get in the back door if it comes to it.  The Cardinals are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games.  The Saints are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games.  Take Arizona. 

6* Jets/Jaguars AFC *CA$H COW* on New York +6.5 

The Key: This line was Jaguars -4.5 before the Jets played the Patriots on Monday Night Football.  After they lost 33-0, this line has been adjusted up to Jaguars -6.5.  It’s too big of a move, and the price is right to pull the trigger on the Jets now.  The Patriots are making almost every quarterback they face look bad, and Sam Darnold can attest to that as the Jets turned the ball over 6 times.  The Jaguars aren’t the Patriots.  They had lost 2 in a row before pulling away late thanks to a defensive touchdown to beat the winless Bengals 27-17.  The fact that they were in a dog fight with the Bengals until the very end tells you all you need to know.  The Jaguars can’t be favored by nearly a TD over a Jets team that is way better than the Bengals.  Keep in mind the Jets beat the Cowboys outright as 7-point dogs the week before losing to the Patriots.  The Jaguars are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 after allowing 75 or fewer rushing yards in their previous game.  Jacksonville is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games off a win.  Take New York. 

6* Boston College/Clemson ACC *CA$H COW* on Boston College +34.5 

The Key: The Boston College Eagles just aren’t getting any respect from oddsmakers as nearly 5-touchdown underdogs to Clemson.  This despite that the Eagles are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.  They beat Rutgers by 14 on the road, only lost by 3 to Wake Forest as 4.5-point dogs, only lost by 2 to Louisville as 4-point dogs, and put forth their best effort of the season last week in a 45-24 home win over NC State as 4-point dogs.  Boston College is putting up huge numbers offensively, which makes me think they can hang.  They had 533 yards against Wake Forest, 563 yards against Louisville and 532 yards against NC State in their last 3 games coming in.  They like to run the ball and control the clock, which will give them a better chance of keeping this game close by shortening the game.  13 of the last 14 meetings were decided by 27 points or fewer and that’s a 13-1 angle supporting the Eagles.  Take Boston College. 

6* Oklahoma State/Iowa State Big 12 *CA$H COW* on Iowa State -10.5 

The Key: Iowa State has put up some of the most impressive stats in the country this year on both sides of the ball.  They are scoring 37.1 PPG and averaging 481.1 YPG and giving up only 21.3 PPG and 333.9 YPG.  Oklahoma State has a good offense but a terrible defense, allowing 30.0 PPG and 432.3 YPG.  The Cowboys have turnover problems as they have committed at least 2 turnovers in 6 straight games, including 8 the last 2 weeks against Texas Tech and Baylor.  They lost both those games by double-digits, and they’ll lose by 11 or more to Iowa State here Saturday as well.  Oklahoma State QB Spencer Sanders is a turnover machine.  The Cowboys are a run-first team, and the Cyclones are stopping the run well this year.  Iowa State only gives up 114 rushing yards per game and 3.3 per carry.  Iowa State is 12-1 ATS after covering the spread in 3 of their last 4 games over the last 3 seasons.  The Cyclones are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.  Take Iowa State. 

6* NCAAF Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on UMass +10 

The Key: UConn shouldn’t be double-digits favorites against anyone.  These are 2 of the worst teams in college football.  But UMass is good enough to hang, especially at home here in what could be their final opportunity for a win this season.  And the Minutemen have had 2 weeks to get ready for UConn after having a bye last week.  Bye weeks are much more beneficial to teams like UMass that have a first-year head coach. UConn is 1-19 ATS in its last 20 games as a favorite.  Take UMass. 

6* Saturday NCAAF *Upset Special* on Central Michigan +3 

The Key: Wrong team favored here.  Jim McElwain was one of the best hires of the offseason and he has quickly turned the Central Michigan Chippewas into MAC title contenders in his first season.  The Chippewas are 5-3 this year with their only losses coming to Wisconsin, Miami and Western Michigan all on the road.  They only lost 12-17 at Miami as 30.5-point dogs.  And they lost 15-31 at Western Michigan, but that game was closer than the final score as the Chippewas actually outgained the Broncos.  They have outgained 6 of their 8 opponents this year and were only outgained by 55 yards by Miami.  In the 6 games they won the yardage battle, they won 5 of them by 102 yards or more.  Buffalo is 3-4 with two of its wins coming against Robert Morris and Akron.  It’s a rebuilding year for the Bulls, who are one of the least experienced teams in the nation with just 8 returning starters.  Bets on road teams that average 5.6 to 6.2 YPPG against a team that gives up 4.8 YPP to 5.6 YPPG after gaining 525 or more yards in their last game are 24-4 ATS over the last 10 years.  Take Central Michigan. 

7* Pac-12 Game of the Year on Stanford PK 

The Key: Stanford is too prideful to pack it in.  The Cardinal are 3-4 this season but they’ve played the 3rd-ranked schedule in the country.  They are coming off a bad loss to UCLA, but that was with their 3rd-string QB, which is one of the worst QB’s I’ve ever seen.  Now the Cardinal should get back either starter KJ Costello or 2nd-stringer Davis Mills this week from injury.  Both have been effective, so as long as one of them starts as I’m expecting, we’ll be good to go.  Arizona lost 27-51 at home to Washington and 14-41 at USC in its last two games.  The Wildcats are getting too much respect from oddsmakers this week.  The Wildcats are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 road games.  The Cardinal are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings winning 4 of those games by 24 points or more.  The Wildcats are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 road games off 2 straight conference games.  Take Stanford. 

7* Redskins/Vikings NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Washington +17 

The Key: The Redskins have two former Vikings on their team that are arguably their two biggest leaders, and they want to win this game for them.  Case Keenum led the Vikings to a deep playoff run before the Vikings let him go the following season.  And Adrian Peterson had a great career with the Vikings.  You know both players want to beat their former team, and you know the Redskins will have their backs.  That’s why I don’t question their motivation after a tough 1-6 start to the season.  The Vikings are getting a lot of respect from the books now after going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last 3 games.  They won’t have Adam Thielen for this game, and they shouldn’t be laying 17 points.  The Redskins haven’t lost by more than 8 points to the Vikings in any of their last 10 meetings.  Take this 10-0 angle straight to the bank tonight.  Take Washington. 

6* SMU/Houston AAC *CA$H COW* on SMU -13 

The Key: The SMU Mustangs are 7-0 and boast one of the best offenses in the country.  They have scored 41 or more points in 6 straight games and are averaging 44.3 PPG this season.  They will score 40-plus in this one against a soft Houston defense.  And they will cover this spread because of it.  The Cougars were outgained by 152 yards by UConn last week, which is all you need to know about how poor of a team this Houston squad is right now.  Sonny Dykes is 10-1 ATS in road games off 3 or more consecutive wins as a head coach.  Take SMU. 

7* AFC East Game of the Year on New York Jets +10 

The Key: Sam Darnold was one of the best quarterback in the NFL down the stretch last year as he improved greatly throughout his rookie season.  And he played well against Buffalo in the opener in a 16-17 loss before going down with a case of Mono.  He finally returned last week following the Jets’ bye week and promptly led them to a 24-22 upset win over the Cowboys.  Darnold threw for 338 yards and 2 touchdowns to lead the win.  He finally got Jamison Crowder and Robbie Anderson involved, which are the team’s two best weapons.  And we know what Le’Veon Bell is capable of.  Darnold should open up the running game moving forward now that the Jets finally have a threat of the pass.  The Patriots are 6-0, but they have played the league’s 32nd-ranked schedule as they have only beaten one team that is .500 or better.  The Jets have played the 10th-toughest schedule this year with 4 of their 5 games against .500 or better teams.  I love the price we are getting with the Jets catching double-digits at home here against the Patriots in a rematch from a 14-30 road loss with Luke Falk as their quarterback.  Darnold moves the needle for this team and is worth probably close to 10 points against the spread over Falk.  Bets on dogs of 3.5 to 10 points who are off a home win and revenging a same season loss are 37-13 ATS over the last 10 years.  Take New York. 

6* Chargers/Titans AFC *CA$H COW* on Tennessee -2 

The Key: The Tennessee Titans weren’t going anywhere with Marcus Mariota at quarterback.  I think inserting Ryan Tannehill at QB this week will give the team a spark in the short term.  He’s one of the best backup QB’s in the NFL and did well with what he had to work with when he was with the Miami Dolphins.  The Titans have more weapons than the Dolphins did, and I think he can get this offense on track.  The Chargers are broken at 2-4 on the season and have been hit harder by injuries than any other team in the NFL.  They are playing without S Derwin James, S Adrian Phillips, WR Dontrell Inman, WR Travis Benjamin and C Mike Pouncey.  They could also be without NT Brandon Mebane, DL Justin Jones, K Michael Badgley and DE Melvin Ingram, who are all questionable.  They just haven’t been able to overcome these injuries, and they won’t this week either.  The Titans are 26-13 ATS in their last 39 games as a home favorite of 3 points or less.  The Titans are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 home games after scoring 9 points or less last game.  The Chargers are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.  Take Tennessee. 

6* Raiders/Packers Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Oakland +5.5 

The Key: The Raiders are in a great situation Sunday.  They have 2 weeks to get ready for the Packers after having their bye last week.  And the Packers are on a short week after a fortunate 23-22 win on Monday Night Football that was gifted to them by the refs.  The Packers are fortunate to be 5-1 this year as they keep winning all their close games.  Oakland continues to get no respect from oddsmakers.  They have been an underdog in all 5 games, and they’ve gone 3-2.  They upset Denver 24-16 as 3-point home dogs, upset the Colts 31-24 as 6-point road dogs, and upset Chicago 24-21 as 7-point road dogs.  They are averaging 4.9 yards per carry on offense behind rookie RB Josh Jacobs and Derek Carr is quietly having a great season.  Carr is completing 73.3% of his passes on the year.  Jon Gruden is coming up with great game plans week after week and proving that he still has the magic touch as a play caller.  The Packers give up 4.9 yards per carry, which is one of the worst marks in the NFL.  So Jacobs should find plenty of success on the ground.  The Raiders are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 games after leading in their last 2 games by 10-plus points at halftime.  Take Oakland. 

7* NFC Game of the Year on New York Giants -3 

The Key: The New York Giants got extra time to prepare for the Cardinals after playing the Patriots last Thursday.  They were very short-handed in that game against the Patriots and battled hard for 4 quarters before eventually relenting.  Now the Giants get some key playmakers back this week in RB Saquon Barkley and TE Evan Engram, who are their two best players on offense.  And they just recently got Golden Tate back from suspension, so they have ample weapons this week now for Daniel Jones, who is proving he belongs in the NFL.  Arizona could easily be 0-6.  Their 2 wins this season came by a combined 4 points.  They have a terrible defense that gives up 28.5 PPG and 414 YPG, so the Giants should score at will on them.  The Cardinals have a decent offense but are only scoring 22.3 PPG this year.  I think the Giants win in a shootout and get more stops than Arizona does.  Having the extra time to prepare for the dual-threat in Kyler Murray is a big advantage for New York’s defense.  The Giants are 10-0 ATS in their last 10 games after playing a Thursday game.  The Giants are 16-2 ATS in their last 18 after allowing 17 points or more in the first half of 2 straight games.  Take New York. 

6* Tennessee/Alabama SEC *CA$H COW* on Tennessee +35 

The Key: The Alabama Crimson Tide are coming off a huge 47-28 road win at Texas A&M.  It was closer than the final score showed as Alabama’s defense was once again porous.  Teams can score on this Alabama defense as South Carolina scored 23, Ole Miss scored 31 and Texas A&M scored 28.  The Vols will never be close to not covering in this game as massive 35-point dogs.  They were only down 15 to Georgia late in the fourth quarter two weeks ago, and last week they upset Mississippi State 20-10 as 5-point home dogs in a dominant effort that was no fluke.  The Crimson Tide are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 against a team with a losing record.  Alabama is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 games following an ATS win.  The road team is 17-6-1 ATS in the last 24 meetings.  Take Tennessee. 

7* SEC Game of the Year on Georgia -24.5 

The Key: Poor Kentucky.  The Wildcats get to be the punching bag that Georgia takes out its frustration on after getting upset by South Carolina last week.  The Bulldogs gave away that game by committing 4 turnovers in what was a very fluky loss.  Now they take on a Kentucky team that has lost both of its road games in blowout fashion 13-28 at Mississippi State and 7-24 at South Carolina.  If they couldn’t hang with those 2 teams on the road, they have no chance of hanging with Georgia.  Kentucky is down to a 3rd-string QB who was a former receiver.  They can only run the football, making them one-dimensional.  That will be easy for Georgia to stop.  Georgia only allows 73 RYPG and 2.7 YPC this year.  Once Georgia gets up 28-plus, there will be no back door coming because Kentucky doesn’t have a passing game.  The Bulldogs are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS loss.  The Bulldogs are 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings.  Take Georgia. 

6* Oregon/Washington Pac-12 *CA$H COW* on Washington +3 

The Key: The Washington Huskies have one of the biggest home-field advantages in the country.  I like the price we are getting on the Huskies as home dogs to Oregon Saturday.  The Huskies are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS at home this year and winning by 19.5 PPG.  They are coming off their best performance of the season in a 51-27 road win at Arizona last week.  And now they are back home here to take down rival Oregon.  The Ducks are 0-6 ATS in road games against good offensive teams that score 31 or more points per game over the last 3 years.  They are losing by 20.0 PPG in this situation.  Oregon is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 road games.  The Ducks are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games off an ATS win.  The Huskies are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 against a team with a winning record.  Take Washington. 

7* Marshall/FAU NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Florida Atlantic -4.5 

The Key: Many bettors forgot about Florida Atlantic after they were blown out by 2 of the best teams in the country in Ohio State and UCF to open the season.  But they’ve gone 4-0 since with 4 double-digit victories.  I look for them to win this game by a touchdown or more at home against a Marshall team that has been very disappointing.  The Thundering Herd are 3-3 SU & 1-5 ATS this year.  Their 3 wins have come over VMI, Old Dominion and Ohio (by 2) all at home.  They lost to a bad Middle Tennessee team 13-24 on the road, were blown out at home by Cincinnati 14-52, and lost 7-14 at Boise State in a game that was a bigger blowout than the final score showed.  Marshall only had 172 total yards against Boise State and gave up 437 yards.  The Owls are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing 125 or fewer rushing yards in 2 straight games.  Take Florida Atlantic. 

7* Chiefs/Broncos AFC West *HEAVY HITTER* on Denver +3.5 

The Key: Teams are starting to beat the Chiefs by controlling the ball and the time of possession.  They are doing so thanks to a banged up Chiefs defense that ranks 30th against the run.  The Chiefs have yielded 192, 180, 186 and 203 rushing yards in their last 4 games, respectively.  The Broncos have rushed for an average of 147 yards in winning each of their last 2 games over the Chargers and Titans.  Denver hasn’t lost by more than 2 points in any of its 3 home games this year.  This is clearly a game the Broncos can win outright.  The Broncos are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 Thursday games and have a big advantage here playing at home on a short week after playing at home against the Titans on Sunday.  They don’t have to travel at all.  The Chiefs won’t handle playing in the altitude on a short week here on the road very well, especially with all the injuries they are dealing with right now.  Take Denver. 

7* South Alabama/Troy Sun Belt *HEAVY HITTER* on South Alabama +17 

The Key: This game just means a lot more to South Alabama than Troy.  The Jaguars are looked at the little brother in this rivalry of Alabama schools.  But they’ve gone 3-3 SU & 4-2 ATS in the last 6 meetings with only one loss by more than 7 points.  They pulled two outright upsets 19-8 and 24-18 at Troy as 18 and 6-point dogs in their last two road trips in this series.  And their three losses came by 1, 7 and 21 points.  This is one of the worst Troy teams we’ve seen in years largely due to head coach Neal Brown leaving the program.  They are 2-3 with their only wins coming against Akron and Campbell.  South Alabama has kept some games close this season against some good teams, losing by 14 at Nebraska as 35-point dogs, by 13 at Louisiana-Monroe as 13-point dogs and by 3 to Georgia Southern as 10-point dogs.  They are hungry for their first win against an FBS opponent, and they would love nothing more than for it to come against Troy.  The Jaguars are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 against a team with a losing record.  The Jaguars are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 conference games.  The Trojans are 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 home games against a team with a losing record.  The Trojans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.  Take South Alabama. 

7* Lions/Packers NFC North *HEAVY HITTER* on Green Bay -3.5 

The Key: This line was 6.5 on the lookahead line last week.  What has changed since then?  Green Bay blew out Dallas 34-24, while Detroit had a bye week.  Now this line has moved all the way down to 3.5.  The price is now right to pull the trigger on the Packers at home here.  No team in the NFL has a bigger home-field advantage than the Packers as their home field is probably worth 4 points.  And I have the Packers favored over the Lions on a neutral field, so I have no choice but to lay this short number with them.  I think the Lions are grossly overrated this year.  They are giving up 406 YPG on defense, and Aaron Rodgers should be able to name his score offensively.  The Packers have been great against the pass but poor against the run this year, but the Lions can’t exploit that as they average just 3.9 YPC this season.  The Packers are 25-3 SU & 18-8-2 ATS in their last 28 home meetings with the Lions and winning by 10 PPG on average.  Take Green Bay. 

6* Texans/Chiefs AFC *CA$H COW* on Kansas City -4 

The Key: The price is right to back the Kansas City Chiefs this week.  They are coming off two straight non-covers against Detroit and Indianapolis, including a shocking upset loss to the Colts last week.  Now they are laying only 4 points when this line was expected to be upwards of 8 points as early as last week.  I know that the Chiefs have some injury concerns, but Patrick Mahomes is going to play and they could get Tyreke Hill back this week as he has been practicing on a limited basis.  I just think the Texans are getting too much respect for their 53-32 home win over the Falcons last week, an Atlanta team that looked like they quit in the second half.  Don’t forget they had lost to the Panthers 10-16 and were fortunate to beat the Jaguars 13-12 in recent weeks.  Bill O’Brian is 0-7 ATS against good offensive teams that score 29 PPG or more as the coach of the Texans.  The Texans are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 against a team with a winning record.  They can’t keep up with the Chiefs in this one.  Take Kansas City. 

6* Sunday NFL *UPSET SPECIAL* on Cleveland Browns +2 

The Key: I also like backing good teams after they get embarrassed.  The Browns were thoroughly embarrassed on Monday Night Football on the road against a 49ers team that is looking more and more like one of the best teams in the NFL.  Now they are back home and playing with a chip on their shoulder this week.  And the Browns should get some key pieces back on defense as both starting CB’s in Denzel Ward and Greedy Williams actually practiced on a limited basis this week.  The injury news isn’t as good for the Seahawks, who are expected to be without two starting offensive linemen in G D.J. Fluker and T Duane Brown.  The Browns do have a good pass rush led by Myles Garrett, and I expect Russell Wilson to be running for his life.  It’s also a letdown spot for the Seahawks off their huge 30-29 home win over the hated Rams last week.  The Browns are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a loss, and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games off an ATS loss.  They are also 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games off a loss by more than 14 points.  The home team is 3-0-2 ATS in the last 5 meetings.  Take Cleveland. 

7* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Year on Jacksonville Jaguars -1 

The Key: The Jacksonville Jaguars have gone 2-2 with Gardner Minshew at quarterback and he has kept them in every game.  Minshew has thrown 9 touchdowns against only one interception this year and is completing 67% of his attempts.  He has led a suddenly potent Jaguars offense to an average of 481 YPG the last 2 weeks.  New Orleans has struggled offensively in its 2 road games this season.  The Saints are only averaging 255 YPG on the highway this year.  Teddy Bridgewater has been good at home, but not so good on the road.  This will be a tough environment for him up against a good Jaguars defense.  And life could be even more difficult if the Saints are without Alvin Kamara, who is listed as questionable after missing practice on Friday.  Bets on favorites in a game involving two mediocre defensive teams that give up 23-27 PPG, after 2 straight games where 50 or more total points were scored are 35-11 ATS over the last 10 years.  Take Jacksonville. 

6* Hawaii/Boise State MWC *BAILOUT* on Hawaii +13 

The Key: Hawaii is 4-1 this season with its only loss coming on the road to Washington.  The Warriors also have wins over Arizona, Oregon State and Nevada.  How good does that win over Arizona look now?  They won that game despite committing 6 turnovers, and Arizona has gone on to win each of its next 4 games since.  Now Hawaii is rested off a bye week following its dominant 54-3 ‘upset’ win at Nevada 2 weeks ago.  Boise State scored a late touchdown to cover against UNLV last week after returning an onside kick inside UNLV’s 10-yard line.  It was a misleading 38-13 final score.  I think Boise State is vulnerable, and that showed in 2 home wins over Marshall 14-7 and Air Force 30-19.  Both those games went down to the wire, and Hawaii is better than both of those teams.  Brian Harsin is 0-8 ATS as a home favorite of 10.5 to 14 points as the coach of Boise State.  Take Hawaii. 

6* Florida/LSU SEC *CA$H COW* on LSU -13 

The Key: The transformation of this LSU offense can almost exclusively be attributed to getting the passing game coordinator from the New Orleans Saints in the offseason.  LSU is scoring 54.6 PPG and putting up 571 YPG on offense.  We’ve never seen an LSU offense this potent, and neither has Florida.  That’s why I’m willing to lay the big number with the Tigers, especially since this will be one of the best atmospheres in all of college football down in Baton Rouge Saturday night.  Florida has a good defense, but hasn’t seen an offense nearly this explosive.  The Gators are also 5-0, but they have played Miami, Tennessee-Martin, Kentucky, Tennessee and Auburn.  That’s an awful slate of opposing offenses.  This is a bad spot for the Gators after their big home win against the frauds of Auburn last week.  LSU made easy work of Utah State last week 42-6 and will be rested and ready to go.  Florida QB Kyle Trask suffered a knee injury, and now the freshman is banged up and won’t be ready for the atmosphere he’s about to encounter Saturday night.  The Tigers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.  The Tigers are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 conference games.  The home team is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings.  Take LSU. 

6* Nebraska/Minnesota Big Ten *CA$H COW* on Nebraska +7.5 

The Key: The Minnesota Golden Gophers are 5-0 this year, but it has come against one of the softest schedules in the country.  And it’s worth noting that 4 of Minnesota’s 5 wins have come by 7 points or less.  So now the Golden Gophers will be playing the best team they have faced all season in Nebraska, and I think the price is right to pull the trigger on the Huskers +7.5.  If they want to win the Big Ten West like they were favored to do prior to the season, this is a must-win game for them.  I think we get the best effort we’ve seen yet from the Huskers this week as a result.  The Huskers are 21-10-1 ATS in their last 32 road games.  Take Nebraska. 

6* North Texas/Southern Miss C-USA *CA$H COW* on Southern Miss -3 

The Key: I don’t agree with this line move of Southern Miss from -6 down to -3 this week.  The price is right to now pull the trigger on the Golden Eagles.  They are a loaded team with 16 returning starters and among my favorites to win Conference USA this year.  They are 3-2 with their only losses coming on the road to Mississippi State and Alabama.  They also upset Troy on the road.  They have played a much more difficult schedule than North Texas, which is 2-3 this season with its only wins over Abilene Christian and UTSA.  The 25-46 home loss to Houston last week as 7.5-point favorites was terrible for North Texas.  The Mean Green were up against a Houston team that had just decided to redshirt their QB and top WR the previous week.  They laid a complete egg and aren’t very good.  The Golden Eagles get back their best defensive player from injury at linebacker this week, and he is their leader and quarterback of the defense.  North Texas is 1-9 ATS after the first month of the season over the last 2 years.  The Mean Green are 3-16 ATS in their last 19 road games against good offensive teams that average 5.9 YPP or more.  The Mean Green are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  Take Southern Miss. 

7* Conference USA Game of the Year on Florida Atlantic -10.5 

The Key: The FAU Owls were quickly forgotten about after opening 0-2 with losses to Ohio State and UCF.  But those are 2 of the best teams in the country, and they actually played Ohio State as tough as anyone has in a 21-45 road loss.  They’ve since gone 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS with blowout wins at Ball State 41-31, at home over Wagner 42-7 and at Charlotte 45-27.  Now they will beat a bad Middle Tennessee team by double-digits tonight.  All three of MTSU’s losses have come by 19 points or more.  Their only wins were at home against Tennessee State and Marshall.  They only outgained Tennessee State by 138 yards as 26-point favorites and were outgained by 177 yards by Marshall in a misleading final.  FAU is refreshed and refocused as it will be returning from its bye week and ready to go this week.  The Owls want to avenge a 24-25 road loss at MTSU last year.  MTSU is 1-14 ATS in its last 15 against teams with a turnover margin of +1 per game or better.  The Blue Raiders are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 against a team with a winning record.  Take Florida Atlantic. 

7* Colorado/Oregon NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Colorado +21.5 

The Key: The Oregon Ducks are laying too many points tonight.  They haven’t been able to put teams away by big margins.  They only beat Montana by 35 as 39.5-point favorites, Stanford by 15 and Cal by 10 in their last 3 games coming in.  Colorado is good enough to stay within 3 touchdowns of Oregon.  The Buffaloes are 3-2 this season with their 2 losses coming by 7 and 5 points.  They beat Nebraska and Arizona State, so they have played a pretty tough schedule thus far.  The Buffaloes have the offense to keep up with the Ducks.  They are scoring 34.6 PPG overall and 43.0 PPG on the road.  They have a veteran QB in Steven Montez who won’t be fazed by playing in Eugene.  Montez is completing 67% of his passes for 1,463 yards with 10 touchdowns and only 2 interceptions while averaging 8.3 YPA.  Oregon is 0-6 ATS against teams that commit one or fewer turnovers per game over the last 3 years.  Take Colorado. 

7* Giants/Patriots NFL *HEAVY HITTER* on New England -16.5 

The Key: The New England Patriots are 5-0 this season.  They are outscoring their opponents by 24.2 PPG on the year so laying 16.5 points isn’t too much with them.  They have the No. 1 scoring (6.8 PPG) and total (238 YPG) defense in the NFL this year.  The Giants’ offense will be short-handed this week as they will for sure be without Barkley, Gallman and Shepard, and they could be without Engram as well.  Bill Belichick owns rookie quarterbacks and he’ll be bringing the heat all game on Daniel Jones.  Tom Brady and this New England offense are primed for a big game against the Giants No. 30 defense (409 YPG) Thursday night.  The Patriots are 40-17-2 ATS in their last 59 home games.  Take New England. 

7* App State/Lafayette Sun Belt *HEAVY HITTER* on Louisiana-Lafayette -1 

The Key: This is a rematch from the Sun Belt title game last year.  Lafayette lost by 10 at Appalachian State in the regular season and by 11 in the championship game, which was also at App State.  Now the Rajin’ Cajuns are playing with double revenge and finally get the Mountaineers at home this year.  That will make all the difference.  We are going to get a big effort from the Rajin’ Cajuns, who are clearly the better team this year.  They are 4-1 with their only loss coming on the road at Mississippi State by 10.  The Rajin’ Cajuns are outgaining teams by 195 YPG on the season.  Appalachian State is 4-0, but they are only outgaining teams by 9 YPG on the year.  And this despite playing the 143rd-ranked schedule in the nation.  This will easily be the Mountaineers’ toughest test yet.  Lafayette is 5-0 ATS in all games this year and will improve to 6-0 with a win and cover Wednesday.  Take LA-Lafayette. 

7* Browns/49ers Non-Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on San Francisco -3.5 

The Key: The numbers show that the 49ers are one of the best teams in the league this year.  They ranked Top 5 in total offense and Top 5 in total defense, and they are the only team in the NFL to accomplish that feat to this point.  They are outgaining their opponents by 138 YPG on the year.  Now they come off a bye week and will be ultra prepared to face the Browns.  And their home fans will be excited to see them as they have played 2 of their first 3 games on the road.  Things are looking up for Kyle Shanahan in San Francisco now that his team has finally remained relatively healthy.  The Browns are off a big division win over rival Baltimore last week.  I think now oddsmakers are giving them too much respect for that upset victory.  The Browns are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games off a win by 10 points or more against a division opponent.  Take San Francisco. 

6* Packers/Cowboys NFC *CA$H COW* on Dallas -3 

The Key: The Cowboys got the humbling they needed after a 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS start with 3 straight blowout wins to start the season.  They lost 10-12 at the Saints last week, and now they should be able to refocus with the Packers coming to town.  This is a Packers team they hate and one that has caused them a lot of heartbreak over the last few seasons, especially in the playoffs.  And now they get a shot at revenge here.  They won’t have to face star WR Devante Adams, who has been ruled out with a toe injury.  T Bryan Bulaga is questionable, and RB Jamal Williams is doubtful.  This severely hampers a Packers offense that has struggled all season with just 21.2 PPG and 338 YPG.  The Cowboys have an elite defense that yields only 14.0 PPG and 318 YPG.  Offensively, the Cowboys are rushing for 145 YPG and should be able to shred a Packers defense that gave up gaping holes in the running game to the Eagles last week.  The Packers are now allowing 142 RYPG and 5.0 YPC on the season.  The Packers are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 road games.  Take Dallas. 

6* Broncos/Chargers AFC West *CA$H COW* on Denver +6.5 

The Key: The price is right to back the Broncos this week.  They are an 0-4 team hungry for their first win of the year.  Three of their four losses came by one score, and it would have been all four if not for a missed field goal at Green Bay.  That’s why getting 6.5 points here is a nice price.  I know the Broncos won’t give up on their first-head head coach in Vic Fangio because players actually like him a lot.  They’ll keep fighting, just as they have every week.  Now they face a Chargers team that has more injury problems than probably any other team in the league.  They are missing Derwin James, Russell Okung, Hunter Henry, Adrian Phillips, Melvin Ingram and Dontrelle Inman.  They could be missing Travis Benjamin, Mike Williams, Virginia Green and Michael Badgley, who are all questionable.  Their defense is a mess, especially in the secondary, and their offense is missing a ton of key weapons.  Joe Flacco hasn’t been horrible as he is completing 66.2% of his passes this year and is primed for his best game of the season.  Teams are 0-3 ATS this season after facing the Dolphins.  After an easy win against the Dolphins 30-10 in which they pulled away late last week, the Chargers will get more of a fight from the Broncos than they bargained for Sunday.  Bets on road teams who are being out-rushed by 40 or more YPG on the season, after being out-rushed by 100 YPG or more last game are 23-5 ATS over the last 5 years.  Take Denver. 

7* AFC North Game of the Year on Pittsburgh Steelers +3.5 

The Key: The Pittsburgh Steelers catching points at home is a nice price to pull the trigger on them.  Let alone the are catching more than a field goal.  They have never been a home underdog of +3.5 or more to the Ravens in this rivalry.  And this is a rivalry that is often decided by a field goal or less, having happened 13 of the last 25 times these teams have squared off.  The Ravens have been atrocious defensively this year.  They are yielding 396 YPG and 7.0 YPP, which ranks last in the NFL.  Mason Rudolph finally got on track last week by leading the Steelers to 27 points in a blowout win over the Bengals.  He could look even better this week against this soft Ravens defense.  There’s no question the Steelers have the better defense, and I always like taking home underdogs when they have the better D.  The underdog is 7-1-1 ATS in the last 9 matchups.  The Ravens are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 against the AFC North.  Take Pittsburgh. 

6* Tulsa/SMU *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 64.5 

The Key: Both Tulsa and SMU have good defenses this season, and it’s going to be hard to envision them combining to score 65 points or more to beat us with this UNDER Saturday.  Tulsa is giving up 26.2 PPG against a gauntlet of a schedule that has featured Michigan State and Oklahoma State.  SMU is allowing 26.6 PPG against an also tough schedule that has featured some good offenses in Arkansas State, North Texas and TCU.  SMU has 25 sacks this season, and Tulsa gets sacked 4 times per game.  Tulsa’s offense is mustering up only 21.5 PPG this year.  SMU will be able to stop them, and I think Tulsa will hold SMU to its lowest point total yet this season.  This was a 27-24 game for 51 combined points when these teams met last year.  Tulsa is 9-0 UNDER in the first half o the season over the last 2 years.  SMU is 6-0 UNDER in October games over the last 3 years.  Tulsa is 7-0 UNDER when up against a team that wins more than 75% of their games over the last 3 years.  Tulsa is 9-1 UNDER against good offensive teams that average 5.9 or more YPP over the last 3 years.  Take the UNDER. 

6* Michigan State/Ohio State Big Ten *CA$H COW* on Michigan State +21 

The Key: The Michigan State Spartans just have a way of playing to their competition.  That’s why you should almost never lay big points with them, but you should certainly look to back them in the underdog role.  This is a classic Mark Dantonio game where the Spartans will come close to beating Ohio State, if not pull off the upset.  The Buckeyes are coming off a huge win at Nebraska with ESPN’s College Gameday on site.  This is definitely a letdown spot for them now.  And the Buckeyes are 5-0 and have covered 4 straight coming in, so the price is getting too steep to back them now.  Ohio State is 0-6 ATS off 5 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 years.  They are actually losing in this spot outright by 2.5 PPG.  The road team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  The underdog is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings.  Take Michigan State. 

6* Conference USA *Total* Annihilator on Rice/UAB UNDER 44.5 

The Key: It’s hard to see where the points are going to come from in this matchup between two very bad offensive teams in Rice and UAB.  Rice is scoring just 14.8 PPG and averaging 282 YPG.  UAB is scoring 25.7 PPG and averaging 376 YPG.  UAB has another great defense this year as they are giving up just 15.5 PPG.  Rice’s defense is improved with 29.4 PPG allowed against a tough schedule of Army, Wake Forest, Texas, Baylor and LA Tech.  Both teams prefer to run the ball as UAB averages 41 rushing attempts per game and only 26 pass attempts.  Rice also prefers to run the ball with 36 rushing attempts per game and only 26 passing attempts, which speaks volumes about their offensive strategy considering they have been trailing all season.  That will keep the clock moving.  UAB is 8-0 UNDER in October games over the last 3 years.  UAB is 6-0 UNDER in home games in the first half of the season over the last 3 years.  The UNDER is 6-1-1 in Owls last 8 conference games.  The UNDER is 13-4 in Blazers last 17 conference games.  The UNDER is 7-2 in Blazers last 9 home games.  Take the UNDER. 

7* ACC Game of the Year on Georgia Tech +11 

The Key: This is the ultimate flat spot for the UNC Tar Heels.  They came up just a 2-point conversion short of upsetting Clemson last week.  Now they have to try and get back up off the mat and face a Georgia Tech team that is 1-3 on the season.  They won’t be interested at all in this game.  The Tar Heels are extra defeated right now after losing 3 straight games by 6 points or less after winning their first 2 games by 4 points or fewer.  So all 5 of their games have been decided by 6 points or less, and this one will go down to the wire as well.  Georgia Tech now had 4 games under its belt in the new schemes under Geoff Collins, who arrived from Temple.  And that loss to Temple last week was far from the 24-2 blowout it appeared.  The Yellow Jackets were only outgained by 18 yards by the Owls on the road but committed 3 costly turnovers.  Georgia Tech is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings, and 4-1 ATS in the last 5 home meetings.  Take Georgia Tech. 

6* Saturday AAC *CA$H COW* on Connecticut +11.5 

The Key: The South Florida Bulls have to be close to firing head coach Charlie Strong.  A loss to UConn on the road Saturday would do the trick.  The Bulls are 1-3 this season with a 49-0 blowout home loss to Wisconsin and a 21-48 blowout home loss to SMU.  They trailed SMU 41-0 last week before scoring 3 late touchdowns.  They also lost to Georgia Tech on the road, and their only win came against South Carolina State at home.  They only outgained South Carolina State by 83 yards in that game but benefitted from forcing 8 turnovers, which resulted in a misleading final.  I don’t think they’re that much better than UConn.  The Huskies were blown out not he road by Indiana and UCF, but that’s to be expected.  They beat Wagner at home and only lost to Illinois by 8 as 21-point dogs in their 2 home games this year.  Randy Edsall has this team fighting and their are definitely improved over last year, when they only lost 30-38 at South Florida as 33.5-point dogs.  The Huskies are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games off 2 consecutive road losses.  Take Connecticut. 

7* UCF/Cincinnati ESPN Friday Night Lights on Cincinnati +4.5 

The Key: Cincinnati has played a schedule that is almost two times as hard as that of UCF to this point.  I like that they’ve been tested early and are 3-1 with their only loss coming on the road to powerhouse Ohio State.  UCF is 4-1, but they lost on the road to Pittsburgh, a team that lost badly to Virginia and barely beat FCS Delaware by a field goal last week.  If Pittsburgh can knock them off, there’s no question Cincinnati can.  I love home underdogs in weeknight games because the atmosphere is electric, and it will be a Nippert Stadium in Cincinnati Friday night as well.  This Bearcats defense will be the best stop unit that UCF has seen yet this season.  They are giving up just 20.7 PPG and 297 YPG this year.  Take Cincinnati. 

7* Rams/Seahawks NFC West *HEAVY HITTER* on Seattle PK 

The Key: The Los Angeles Rams just gave up 55 points to the Tampa Bay Bucs Sunday.  Their defense is gassed, and their offense may be even more tired after trying to come back from a 21-0 deficit.  Now they have to play on a short week here and travel to Seattle Thursday night.  The Seahawks will have plenty left in the tank after beating the Cardinals 27-10 on the road last week.  The Seahawks want to avenge 2 losses to the Rams by a combined 7 points last year.  I believe the Seahawks have the better team this year with all they added in the offseason compared to all the Rams lost.  Los Angeles has a terrible offensive line and can’t get a consistent run game going.  Jared Goff is under constant pressure, which helps explain why he had just 6 touchdowns and 6 interceptions through 4 games.  Take Seattle. 

7* Bengals/Steelers AFC North *HEAVY HITTER* on Pittsburgh -3 

The Key: The Bengals have a banged up defense that is soft as butter.  They have allowed an average of 494 YPG to a couple of mediocre offenses the last 2 weeks in the 49ers and Bills.  The Steelers will get their ground game going against the Bengals, who allow 169 RYPG and 4.9 YPC.  And the Steelers will slow down Andy Dalton and company, who clearly miss AJ Green at receiver.  They also have several offensive linemen banged up, so the Steelers should be able to get after Dalton.  Take Pittsburgh. 

7* Cowboys/Saints NFC *BAILOUT* on New Orleans +3 

The Key: The Cowboys should not be favored on the road over the Saints in the dome Sunday night.  The Cowboys have taken advantage of the easiest schedule in the NFL with games against the Giants, Redskins and Dolphins, who are a combined 1-8.  The Saints have played one of the toughest schedule against the Texans, Rams and Seahawks, who are a combined 7-2.  Two of those games were on the road.  The Saints are 12-1 SU & 13-0 ATS in their last 13 home games against a team with a winning percentage of 80% or better on the season.  Take New Orleans. 

6* Vikings/Bears NFC North *CA$H COW* on Chicago ML -112 

The Key: I look at the Vikings and Bears as almost mirror images of one another.  They both have mediocre offenses and great defenses.  That’s why getting the Bears at a pick ‘em at home is a value play Sunday.  The Bears won both meetings with the Vikings last year and terrorized Kirk Cousins in the process.  They won 25-20 at home and held the Vikings to 268 total yards.  They won 24-10 on the road and held the Vikings to just 164 total yards.  The Bears had over 300 yards of offense in both wins, so they were able to figure out Minnesota’s defense.  Chicago is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 home games against a good rushing team that averages 5.0 YPC or more.  The Vikings are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 against a team with a winning record.  The Bears are 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 home games against a team with a winning record.  The Bears are 16-6-1 ATS in their last 23 home games.  The Bears are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 against the NFC North.  Take Chicago. 

6* Patriots/Bills AFC East *CA$H COW* on Buffalo +7.5 

The Key: The Bills finally have a team that can handle the Patriots and end this series domination that New England has held over them for years.  Josh Allen has improved by leaps and bounds this season, and he finally has some weapons.  The Bills have averaged 391 YPG thus far.  But what really gives them a chance to pull this upset is a defense that is just as good as last year after dominating last season.  The Bills are only allowing 15.7 PPG and 300 YPG.  The Patriots are really banged up on offense and have taken advantage of an easy schedule thus far against the Steelers, Dolphins and Jets, who are a combined 0-9.  Bets against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points who average 27 or more PPG, after allowing 14 or less points in 2 straight games are 23-5 ATS over the last 10 years.  Take Buffalo. 

7* Mountain West Game of the Year on Nevada -2 

The Key: Nevada is for sure one of my favorite plays of the entire 2019 season.  They host Hawaii Saturday night in Reno.  Game-time temps are expected to be in the 40’s as there’s a cold front moving through Nevada.  Hawaii has had upper 80’s temps all week, so they will be a little shell shocked for these 40-degree temps.  And this game will be played in altitude.  Nevada is 5-0 in their last 5 home meetings with Hawaii, and 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings overall with an average cover of 10 PPG.  Their dominance of the Rainbow Warriors should continue here Saturday.  Take Nevada. 

6* NCAAF Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Marshall +4 

The Key: Cincinnati was exposed in its 42-0 road loss at Ohio State.  The Bearcats should not even be favored in this game.  Marshall’s only loss came on the road at Boise State as 14-point dog in a 7-point loss.  The Thundering Herd gave the Broncos all they could handle.  Luke Fickell is 2-11 ATS off a home win in all games he has coached.  Doc Holliday is 6-0 ATS against AAC opponents as the coach of Marshall.  The Bearcats are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games.  The Thundering Herd are 16-4-2 ATS in their last 22 home games against a team with a winning record.  Take Marshall. 

6* SEC *CA$H COW* on Ole Miss +38.5 

The Key: The Ole Miss Rebels have been a punching bag for the Alabama Crimson Tide the last 2 seasons.  But they are finally in a position to put up a fight in 2019.  They brought in Rich Rodriquez to be their offensive coordinator, and they also brought in Mike MacIntyre to be their defensive coordinator.  The Rebels could easily be 4-0 but they are just 2-2 right now, which has them undervalued.  They only lost by 5 at Memphis and by 8 at home to Cal.  They were stopped inside the 1 from forcing OT against Cal and put up over 500 yards against their vaunted defense.  Bets against favorites of 31.5 or more points off a home win, with a winning record on the season are 29-7 ATS over the last 5 years.  Take Ole Miss. 

7* Duke/Virginia Tech ESPN Friday Night Lights on Virginia Tech -2.5 

The Key: We are getting the Virginia Tech Hokies cheap tonight.  They aren’t off to the most impressive start in the world, but they had a bye week to get things corrected and come out and take care of business at home here against Duke.  Turnovers have been a problem with 9 of them in 3 games, so look for that to be the focal point leading up to this game.  Virginia Tech has won 13 of its last 15 meetings with Duke and I expect that series domination to continue tonight.  The Hokies are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games against a team with a winning road record.  Take Virginia Tech. 

7* Eagles/Packers NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Philadelphia +4.5 

The Key: The Philadelphia Eagles need this win more.  They are 1-2 and have failed to cover the spread in all 3 games despite not once losing by more than 4 points.  The Packers are not only 3-0 straight up but also 3-0 against the spread.  I think oddsmakers are giving them too much respect tonight.  The Eagles get some key players back from injury, while the Packers have lost some key players to injury since Sunday. Bets against favorites who are off a home win in the first month of the season are 78-39 ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Take Philadelphia. 

7* Bears/Redskins NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Chicago -3.5 

The Key: The Bears are head and shoulders the better team in this matchup with the Washington Redskins Monday Night.  They should be more than 3.5-point favorites in this game.  The Bears haven’t gotten their offense going yet, but they will here against a Redskins defense that has yielded 31.5 PPG and 455 YPG this season.  And the Bears still have an elite defense after leading the league in basically every major defensive category last year.  Chicago is giving up just 12 PPG and 292.5 YPG this year.  Not to mention, the Redskins are giving up 6.8 YPP, while the Bears are yielding just 4.6 YPP.  The Bears will shutdown this suspect Washington offense, and Mitchell Trubisky will finally make some plays for the Bears and lead them to a big road win to get to 2-1 on the season while dropping the Redskins to 0-3 in the process.  Take Chicago. 

6* Sunday NFL Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Miami Dolphins +23 

The Key: Only 5 teams in the last 30 years have been favored by more than 3 touchdowns in the NFL.  This week there are 2 of those teams.  Those 3 TD favorites have not done well, and I think the Dolphins are going to stay within the number here against the Cowboys.  The Dolphins have played 2 of the best teams in the NFL both at home in the Ravens and Patriots.  I actually think they will be a better road bet than a home bet this season.  There’s so much negativity in Miami media right now that it can only do them good to get on the road and get away from it.  I have a feeling the Cowboys aren’t going to show up with the focus they need to put Miami away by more than 3 touchdowns.  They’ve also heard the negativity, and they are overvalued coming in off 2 straight division wins over the Giants and Redskins, 2 of the worst teams in the NFL.  Jason Garrett is 18-33 ATS as a home favorite as the coach of the Cowboys.  Garrett is 7-17 ATS in home games off a division game as the coach of Dallas.  Bets against home favorites a good offensive team from last year averaging 5.4 YPP or more, after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game are 34-11 ATS over the last 10 years.  Take Miami. 

6* Ravens/Chiefs AFC *CA$H COW* on Baltimore +7 

The Key: It’s expected to be a sloppy field in Kansas City Sunday with rain in the forecast Friday, Saturday and Sunday.  That favors the better running team, which is clearly the Ravens.  They are averaging 223 rushing yards per game and 5.7 YPC thus far in 2019.  The Ravens rushed for 198 yards on 39 carries against the Chiefs last year in their 24-27 loss at Arrowhead Stadium.  They want revenge from that defeat.  The Ravens are a much more dynamic offensive team this year as Lamar Jackson has already thrown 7 touchdown passes, and he is fitting the ball into tight windows when he needs to.  New coordinator Greg Roman has experience with these dual-threat QB’s as he guided Colin Kaepernick nearly to a Super Bowl in San Francisco and Tyrod Taylor to the playoffs in Buffalo.  Bets against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points off 2 consecutive covers as a favorite against an opponent that’s off a home win are 34-10 ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Take Baltimore. 

7* AFC Game of the Month on New York Jets +23 

The Key: Only 5 teams in the last 30 years have been favored by more than 3 touchdowns in the NFL.  This week there are 2 of those teams.  Those 3 TD favorites have not done well, and I think the Jets are going to stay within the number here against the Patriots.  The Patriots are the definition of overvalued right now after covering the spread by a combined 49.5 points in their first 2 games against the Steelers and Dolphins.  This is a division game against the Jets, so there is familiarity.  That favors the Jets to keep this game closer than expected.  And I like what I saw from Luke Falk on Monday Night Football against the Browns.  Falk was 20 of 25 passing for 198 yards in relief of an injured Trevor Siemian.  Now that he’s preparing to be the starter all week he should be comfortable.  Le’Veon Bell showed he’s still a workhorse with 68 rushing yards and 10 receptions for 61 yards in the loss.  Bets against favorites who are off 2 straight wins by 21 points or more against a team that scored 3 points or less in the first half last game are 36-13 ATS since 1983.  Take New York. 

6* WMU/Syracuse NCAAF *CA$H COW* on Western Michigan +5.5 

The Key: This is a clear flat spot for the Syracuse Orange.  They are coming off back-to-back blowout losses to Maryland (by 43) and Clemson (by 35).  After facing Clemson last week in a big night game, there’s no way they will get up for Western Michigan this week.  Syracuse is one of the most overrated teams in the country as you can see with those 2 blowout losses.  Western Michigan has been impressive and may be the best team in the MAC.  Their only loss came on the road against Michigan State, and they beat Monmouth by 35 and Georgia State by 47 at home.  That’s the same Georgia State team that upset Tennessee on the road earlier this year.  It’s a veteran WMU bunch that returned 17 starters this year.  Bets against home favorites after allowing 6.5 or more rushing yards per attempt in 2 straight games are 35-8 ATS over the last 10 seasons.  WMU is rushing for 208 YPG and 5.8 YPC this season, and Syracuse is giving up 190 YPG and 5.3 YPC this year.  Take Western Michigan. 

6* ULM/Iowa State NCAAF *CA$H COW* on Louisiana-Monroe +19 

The Key: Iowa State is deflated following its 17-18 home loss to rival Iowa in the Cy-Hawk series last week.  The Cyclones have their Big 12 opener on deck next week against Baylor.  That makes this a sandwich game for them.  The Cyclones won’t be fully up for this game against Louisiana-Monroe.  It’s a good spot for the Warhawks as they are coming off a bye week following a 44-45 (OT) loss at Florida State.  That game showed their potential as they nearly upset the Seminoles as 23-point road dogs.  And they know they have what it takes to compete with Iowa State now.  I think the field conditions at Iowa State will favor the underdog here as it’s supposed to be sloppy with rain in the forecast the next several days leading up to the game.  We saw last year Iowa State nearly lose to Drake as more than a 40-point favorite in sloppy conditions.  Take Louisiana-Monroe. 

7* Cal/Ole Miss ESPNU *HEAVY HITTER* on Ole Miss -2.5 

The Key: Ole Miss wants revenge from a 16-27 upset loss at Cal 2 years ago.  Now they get Cal at home this time around in an early start game that will be a 9:00 AM body clock game for the Golden Bears.  I think Cal players will still feel sleepy by the time this game starts, and they won’t be ready for the men among boys on the other sideline.  I’ll almost always side with SEC over Pac-12, especially when it’s two middle of the road teams here like Cal and Ole Miss.  The Rebels are one of the most improved teams in the country defensively this season, holding Memphis to just 15 points on the road in the opener.  And the Rebels are clearly the better team offensively.  Take Ole Miss. 

7* Utah/USC NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Utah -3.5 

The Key: The Utah Utes are a legit Pac-12 title contender this season.  This is a huge game for them to go on the road and handle their business against USC.  These teams already have a common opponent in BYU.  Utah won at BYU 30-12, while USC lost at BYU 27-30.  Clay Helton just has not been able to deliver in this underdog role.  Helton is 1-12 SU & 2-11 ATS as an underdog at USC with 11 losses by double-digits.  The 12 losses have come by an average of 18.8 PPG.  Take Utah. 

7* Titans/Jaguars AFC South *HEAVY HITTER* on Jacksonville +2 

The Key: Gardner Minshew has been playing as well as any quarterback in the NFL thus far.  He has completed 77.6% of his passes and is averaging 8.4 YPA this season.  The Jaguars finally get a break on the schedule here with the Titans coming to town after facing the Chiefs at home and Texans on the road.  This is a game they must win to stay in the playoff hunt as they cannot afford to fall to 0-3.  Take Jacksonville. 

6* Houston/Tulane AAC *CA$H COW* on Tulane -4.5 

The Key: Tulane looks like a real contender in the AAC.  They have an improved offense in their new spread option look, and their defense is one of the best int he conference.  Tulane is averaging 35.3 PPG and giving up just 14.7 PPG this year.  And that includes games against two very good teams in Auburn and FIU.  Houston has a leaky defense, and that is going to be the difference in this game.  And D’Eriq King doesn’t look as good in Dana Holgorsen’s offense as he did in their offense last year.  Tulane is 8-0 ATS in its last 8 home games off a win by 28 points or more.  The Green Wave are 7-0 ATS in home games in the first half of the season over the last 3 years.  Take Tulane. 

7* Browns/Jets AFC *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 45.5 

The Key: The Jets are going to try to shorten this game by giving the ball to Le’Veon Bell as much as possible.  They brought him in to be their workhorse, and now with Sam Darnold out, they will ride him.  Trevor Siemian will be making short throws and just trying not to turn the ball over.  They will have a conservative game plan, just as they did last week in their 16-17 home loss to the Bills that saw only 33 combined points.  The Jets also have a nice advantage defensively as defensive coordinator Greg Williams held the same position with the Browns last year and knows Freddie Kitchens’ offense.  The Browns have a terrible offensive line, and the Jets should be able to exploit it by bringing pressure all game long.  All of these factors favor a low scoring game.  Not to mention UNDERS are 12-3 this week as offenses just aren’t clicking this early in the season.  Cleveland is 10-2 UNDER after going over the total in their previous game over the last 3 seasons.  Bets on the UNDER on any team against the total off an upset loss as a favorite against an opponent that is off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite are 30-9 over the last 10 seasons.  The UNDER is 9-1 in Browns last 10 games off a double-digit home loss.  Take the UNDER. 

7* Eagles/Falcons NFC *BAILOUT* on Atlanta +2 

The Key: The Atlanta Falcons did themselves in last week by committing 3 turnovers against the Vikings.  They just couldn’t get out of their own way.  The final stats outside the turnovers were actually in their favor.  They had 345 total yards and held the Vikings to just 269 total yards.  Now back home, look for the Falcons to play with a sense of urgency to avoid falling to 0-2.  They will be much sharper, and you’ll see their offense live up to their potential, which is massive with all the weapons they have.  The Eagles gave up 27 points and 398 total yards to a bad Redskins offense last week.  Matt Ryan is 10-1 SU & 10-1 ATS in home openers since coming into the league.  Take Atlanta. 

6* Cardinals/Ravens Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Arizona +13 

The Key: This line was Baltimore -9.5 last week.  But the betting public is now overreacting to the Ravens’ blowout of the league-worst Dolphins last week.  So this line has moved up to the point where there’s definitely value on the Cardinals.  I liked seeing what Kyler Murray could do in the 2nd half last week against the Lions in leading the Cardinals back from an 18-point deficit.  They went hurry up and will do more of the same this week to utilize Murray’s strengths and try and tire out Baltimore’s defense.  This Baltimore defense isn’t nearly as good as it was last year with all the studs they lost in free agency.  And they are without 2 starting cornerbacks due to injury, which is a recipe for disaster against an Arizona offense that likes to spread out the opposition.  Lamar Jackson won’t be nearly as good as he was in Week 1 as he is still limited as a passer, which will make it hard for the Ravens to win by margin.  Take Arizona. 

6* Jaguars/Texans AFC South *CA$H COW* on Jacksonville +9.5 

The Key: This line was Texans -3 last week.  Then Nick Foles got hurt and the Jaguars lost by 14 at home to the Chiefs.  I can forgive them for that loss.  But the betting public doesn’t seem to be forgiving them.  And they aren’t seeming to give backup QB Gardner Minshew any credit for going 22 for 25 passing against the Chiefs for 275 yards.  It was as good a performance as I’ve seen from a backup QB coming in for an injured starter in a long time.  He’ll have plenty of success against a bad Houston defense that gave up over 500 yards to the Saints last week.  The Jaguars will be much better defensively this week than they were against the Chiefs and should be able to get to Deshaun Watson, who was sacked more than any QB in the NFL last year and 6 times in Week 1.  Take Jacksonville. 

6* TCU/Purdue NCAAF *CA$H COW* on TCU -1 

The Key: Purdue QB Elijah Sindelar is leading the nation in passing through 2 games.  He suffered a concussion against Vanderbilt and is questionable to play this week.  Even if he goes, he won’t be 100%.  You can bet TCU head coach Gary Patterson will have his team ready for Purdue’s spread system.  The Horned Frogs are coming off a bye week and consistently have one of the best defenses in the Big 12.  They see many offenses in the Big 12 that are similar to Purdue, which also helps.  Purdue is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 home games after 2 straight games where 60 total points or more were scored.  Take TCU. 

6* FSU/Virginia ACC *CA$H COW* on Virginia -7 

The Key: Fans of the Virginia Cavaliers are excited about this team.  They are coming off an 8-5 season in which they nearly won the Coastal.  And they have 14 starters back from that squad including QB Perkins, who is probably the 2nd-best QB in the ACC.  This is a night game in Charlottesville which will mean that fans will be more boisterous than normal, especially with a program the caliber of Florida State coming to town.  But these aren’t the same old Seminoles.  They went 5-7 last year and are fortunate to not be 0-2 this year.  They lost to Boise State at home and needed overtime to be Louisiana Monroe as a 23-point favorite.  The Seminoles have one of the worst defenses in the country in allowing 40 PPG and 520 YPG.  Virginia has one of the best defenses in the country giving up 15.5 PPG and 228 YPG.  Willie Taggart is 0-7 ATS off a home games as the coach of the Seminoles.  Take Virginia. 

6* Saturday NCAAF *Total* Annihilator on Texas State/SMU OVER 62 

The Key: We have two offensive minds going at it here in Jake Spavital of Texas State and Sonny Dykes of SMU.  This should be a shootout.  Dykes got a huge transfer in Shane Buechele from Texas and he is off to a great start this season.  SMU’s offense is averaging 43.0 PPG and 505 YPG in its first 2 victories over a couple of quality Arkansas State and North Texas teams.  Texas State should finally get its offense going after being held down by 2 very good defenses in Texas A&M and Wyoming.  SMU’s defense is sub par to say the least in allowing 28.5 PPG and 405 YPG thus far.  Dykes is 15-5 OVER as a home favorite lifetime as a head coach.  The OVER is 4-0 in Mustangs last 4 non-conference games.  Take the OVER. 

6* Southern Miss/Troy NCAAF *CA$H COW* on Troy -2.5 

The Key: Troy had a bye last week following its 43-14 win over Campbell in the opener.  Now they have 2 weeks to get ready for Southern Miss.  The Eagles are coming off a 15-38 loss at Mississippi State and it will be hard for them to be as hungry for this game as they were with that opportunity to face an SEC school.  It was also a physical game that would have taken a lot out of them.  Troy is one of the best Sun Belt programs there is as they are in title contention almost every year.  And they have 13 starters back for new head coach Chip Lindsey.  The Trojans are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games following a win.  Troy is 13-4-1 ATS in its last 18 games overall.  Take Troy. 

7* Iowa/Iowa State Rivalry Game of the Year on Iowa State +1.5 

The Key: The Iowa State Cyclones had a bye week to get ready for Iowa.  It’s exactly what they needed as they were humbled in needing OT to beat UNI, so it should have been a productive two weeks of practice.  I think this line is an overreaction to that UNI win.  Iowa State outgained Northern Iowa by 201 yards as that was a misleading final.  Iowa has played Miami Ohio and Rutgers, two terrible teams and is getting too much credit for blowing out both.  Iowa State is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games as a home dog.  Take Iowa State. 

7* Washington State/Houston NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Houston +9.5 

The Key: No team has played an easier schedule than Washington State.  The Cougars are getting too much respect from oddsmakers for their blowout wins over New Mexico State and Northern Colorado.  This team lost a lot of talent from last year and now they step up in class here against Houston.  This is a Houston team that is battle tested with their 31-49 loss to Oklahoma in the opener.  They’ll be ready for Washington State, and this is basically a home game for them played at the Texans’ stadium in Houston.  D’Eriq King is one of the best quarterbacks in the country and will be ready to match Mike Leach and company score for score.  Take Houston. 

7* Bucs/Panthers NFC South *HEAVY HITTER* on Carolina -6.5

The Key: Jameis Winston has now lost 9 straight road starts as the quarterback of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.  Winston was awful in his first start under Bruce Arians, who was supposed to be his savior.  He threw 3 interceptions and 2 of them were returned for touchdowns in their 17-31 home loss to the 49ers.  Cam Newton has been great at home as they had won 10 straight home games with him under center before getting injured last year with his shoulder.  He is back healthy this year and coming off a decent start against the Rams in a tough 27-30 loss.  I trust Newton and the Panthers to bounce back at home tonight.  The Panthers beat the Bucs 42-28 at home last year.  They outgained the Bucs by 106 yards in that game and outgained them by 129 yards in a fluky losing effort in Tampa Bay last year.  Ron Rivera is 11-3 ATS in home games after allowing 30 points or more as the coach of the Panthers.  Take Carolina. 

7* Broncos/Raiders ESPN *BAILOUT* on Oakland +2.5 

The Key: This line indicates that the Broncos would be roughly 5.5-point favorites on a neutral field.  I’m not buying it, and I think these are two evenly matched teams this year.  The Broncos have the better defense, but the Raiders clearly have the better offense, and it’s not really even close.  Oakland should have beaten Denver in each of the last 3 meetings.  They won at home 21-14 in 2017 and 27-14 in 2018, including an upset win as a home dog last year.  And they only lost 19-20 in Denver as 5.5-point underdogs last year.  They have had the Broncos’ number.  Now the Raiders should be much improved in Year 2 under Gruden, while the Broncos are breaking in a new head coach in Vic Fangio.  The Broncos are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 division games.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.  Take Oakland. 

7* Steelers/Patriots NBC *BAILOUT* on Pittsburgh +6 

The Key: The Pittsburgh Steelers have played the Patriots tough in their 2 meetings over the last 2 seasons.  They only lost 24-27 in fluky fashion in 2017.  They came back with a 17-10 home win over the Patriots last year.  I think this game is likely to be decided by a field goal, so the price is right to pull the trigger on the Steelers.  Their offense is loaded and their defense is as good as it has been in years.  The Patriots always seem to start slow out of the gate.  They won’t be a juggernaut offensively early as they try and figure out how to make due without Rob Gronkowski.  Mike Tomlin is 30-19 ATS as a dog as the coach of the Steelers.  Take Pittsburgh. 

6* Sunday NFL *Total* Annihilator on Chiefs/Jaguars UNDER 51 

The Key: The Jaguars have one of the best defenses in the NFL.  They gave up just 13.9 PPG at home last year and didn’t once allow more than 20 points at home.  The Chiefs have an improved defense with all the personnel changes they made in the offseason.  I don’t expect both offenses to be hitting on all cylinders in Week 1.  The Chiefs beat the Jaguars 30-14 last year for 44 combined points.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Jaguars last 5 home games.  The UNDER is 7-1 in Jaguars last 8 games on grass.  Take the UNDER. 

6* Titans/Browns AFC *CA$H COW* on Cleveland -5.5 

The Key: The Cleveland Browns will have one of the best offenses in the NFL this season with Mayfield, Beckham, Landry, Chubb and Njoku leading the way.  The Titans didn’t even score 20 PPG last year, and I don’t think they made any improvements offensively in the offseason.  I think these defenses are a wash as they are both similarly talented.  Cleveland’s offense will be the difference, plus their tremendous home-field advantage, which saw them go 5-2-1 at home last year.  Take Cleveland. 

6* Western Michigan/Michigan State NCAAF *CA$H COW* on Western Michigan +16 

The Key: Western Michigan is probably the class of the MAC this season.  They returned 17 starters and are coming off a 48-13 trouncing of Monmouth in the opener.  Michigan State looks to have the same offensive struggles they had last year as they only beat Tulsa 28-7 as 23.5-point favorites.  They only had 303 total yards against a bad Tulsa defense.  Not being able to score consistently is going to make it difficult for the Spartans to cover this lofty number Saturday against a much better team than Tulsa.  The Spartans are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games.  The Broncos are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 against Big Ten teams.  Take Western Michigan. 

6* North Texas/SMU NCAAF *CA$H COW* on SMU -3 

The Key: The SMU Mustangs are on a mission to make a bowl game this year after just missing out with a 5-7 record last year.  They are off to a good start with their 37-30 upset road win over a very good Arkansas State program last week.  This is a Mustangs team that returned 16 starters and added Texas transfer Shane Buechele at quarterback, massively upgrading the position.  North Texas gave up 31 points to Abilene Christian last week and it’s clear their defense isn’t very good with just 5 returning starters, so the Mustangs should be able to score at will.  Home field advantage has been big in this series as the home team is 9-1 SU & 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  SMU won 54-32 at home against North Texas in 2017.  This is a short number for them to have to cover at home Saturday.  North Texas is 0-7 ATS after a game where they forced one or fewer turnovers over the last 2 seasons.  The Mean Green are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games overall.  Take SMU. 

7* NCAAF Non-Conference Game of the Year on Texas State +7.5 

The Key: The Texas State Bobcats should be one of the most improved teams in the country this season.  They brought back 19 starters and nabbed an offensive-minded head coach in Jake Spavital and he brought some great coordinators with him.  It didn’t show against Texas A&M in the opener as they lost 7-41 as 34-point dogs, but that’s expected against a team the caliber of the Aggies.  Wyoming is coming off a misleading 37-31 upset of Missouri, setting the Cowboys up for a big letdown spot.  They gave up 537 yards and were outgained by 148 yards in that game.  Missouri twice turned it over going into the end zone, and also gave up another turnover for a score.  Their 3 turnovers were essentially a 24-point swing.  Bets on home dogs of 3.5 to 10 points who allowed 6.25 or more yards per play in their previous game, with 8 or more offensive starters and the QB returning in the first month of the season are 22-3 ATS since 1992.  Take Texas State.