Sports Picks & Predictions

7* NCAAF Upset Game of the Year on Nevada ML +105

The Key: I’ve backed Nevada 3 times already this season and am 3-0 with them.  Fortunately I stayed off them last time out when they didn’t cover against New Mexico.  But I’m back on them again this week at a great price when they should not be home underdogs to San Diego State.  The Wolf Pack are 4-0 this season and about to improve to 5-0 here against a SDSU team that has a bad loss to San Jose State already, and 3 easy wins over terrible teams in UNL, Utah Stat and Hawaii.  This is an experience Nevada team that returned 17 starters this year and Jay Norvell has coached them up well.  The Wolf Pack are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as home underdogs.  They have won their last 2 meetings with San Diego State outright as underdogs and will do it for a 3rd straight year here.  Take Nevada.

6* Conference USA *CA$H COW* on Rice +2

The Key: Both Rice and North Texas have had COVID problems this year which has seen Rice play just 2 games and North Texas play just 3 games.  But we’ve seen enough of a sample size to know that Rice is the better team.  And that was evident with their common opponent in Southern Miss.  Rice crushed Southern Miss 30-6 on the road while North Texas lost to that same team 31-41 at home.  Not to mention North Texas also lost 21-49 at home to a bad Charlotte team.  It’s an experienced Rice team that returned 17 starters this year.  And it’s one that should not be a dog to a North Texas team that they also upset last year 20-14 at home.  They had 19 first downs compared to just 10 first downs for North Texas in that game.  Rice is a running team that will be able to run the ball at will against a North Texas defense that is yielding 243 RYPG and 5.6 YPC.  And North Texas hasn’t played a game since October 17th so it will have been off for more than a month coming into this game.  That can’t be a good thing.  North Texas is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games off a win.  Rice is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 road games.  Take Rice.

7* NCAAF Friday Night Lights on UMass +33.5

The Key: Florida Atlantic can’t be laying 33.5 points to anyone with their putrid offense.  The Owls are scoring just 20.4 PPG and averaging 323 YPG this year.  UMass is not good, but this will be their easiest opponent they have faced this year after road losses to Georgia Southern and Marshall.  And they’ve had 2 weeks to get ready for Florida Atlantic while the Owls played FIU last week.  It’s an experienced UMass team that returned 14 starters this year while FAU only returned 9 starters and has a new head coach in Willie Taggart, who has been a disaster as a coach in recent years.  The Owls are 8-17-1 ATS in their last 26 against a team with a losing record.  The Owls are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 Friday games.  Take UMass.

7* Cardinals/Seahawks NFC West *HEAVY HITTER* on Seattle -3

The Key: The Seahawks will be extra hungry tonight after losing 3 of their last 4 following that 5-0 start.  One of those losses was to the Cardinals in overtime back on October 25th. And all 3 losses were on the road.  The Seahawks are back home now where they are 4-0 this year.  And with the division title possibly on the line here, I think we get the best version of the Seahawks and Russell Wilson.  The Cardinals have allowed 30 or more points in 3 straight games and a lot of that has to do with losing their best defender in DE Chandler Jones to injury.  Seattle is 32-15-4 ATS in its last 51 games off an ATS loss.  Pete Carroll has gone 12-2 ATS after 2 or more straight losses as the coach of the Seahawks.  Bets against dogs or PK who went over the total by 28 or more points in their last 3 games, in division games are 35-8 ATS over the last 5 years.  Take Seattle.

6* Tulane/Tulsa AAC *CA$H COW* on Tulsa -5.5

The Key: The Tulsa Golden Hurricane are a legit contender to win the American Athletic Conference this season.  They are 4-1 with their only loss coming in non-conference play in a game effort at Oklahoma State in a 7-16 loss as 23.5-point dogs.  Then they upset UCF as 20.5-point dogs to prove they are contenders before crushing South Florida 42-13 on the road.  They did barely squeak by ECU in a bad spot, but now they came back from their bye week and beat SMU 28-24 last week.  And that bye week is key as the Golden Hurricane will now be playing just their 2nd game in 3 weeks so they should be the fresher team.  The Tulane Green Wave will be playing 7 straight weeks here and are on a short week to boot.  Tulsa outgained SMU and UCF by nearly 100 yards combined while Tulane was outgained by over 500 yards by SMU and UFC combined.  The Golden Hurricane are clearly the better team here and it will show on the scoreboard Thursday night.  Take Tulsa.

7* WMU/CMU MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Central Michigan -1.5

The Key: Central Michigan made the MAC Championship Game in Jim McElwain’s first season on the job last year.  He is doing big things here for the Chippewas already.  They are off to a 2-0 start this season with a 30-27 win over Ohio as 2.5-point home dogs and a 40-10 blowout of Northern Illinois as 6-point road favorites.  The defense has been very good in allowing just 294.5 YPG and they are outgaining those two opponents by 135.5 YPG.  Western Michigan was fortunate to beat Toledo last week after trailing by 10 with just under 3 minutes left and getting 2 TD’s in the final minutes after an onside kick to win 41-38.  Even after 2 TD drives late they were still outgained by 64 yards by Toledo for the game.  Last year Central Michigan outgained Western Michigan on the road but lost 15-31 in a misleading final after committing 3 turnovers.  The Chippewas get revenge at home this time around.  The Broncos are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games as underdog.  Western Michigan is 4-17 ATS in its last 21 games off an ATS win.  The Broncos are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road games.  Central Michigan is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 home games.  The Chippewas are 10-0-1 ATS in their last 11 Wednesday games.  The favorite is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 matchups.  Take Central Michigan.

7* Akron/Kent State MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Akron +26

The Key: The Akron Zips really impressed me last week in their 10-24 loss at Ohio as 27-point dogs.  This was a 7-point game late and they were in it for 4 quarters.  They gained 435 yards on offense and only gave up 307 yards on defense and probably deserved to win outright.  Now they are catching 26 points from Kent State tonight.  Kent State only beat Eastern Michigan by 4 and then crushed the worst team in the MAC in Bowling Green by 38 last week.  That win over Bowling Green has the Golden Flashes getting too much respect from oddsmakers in this matchup.  Kent State is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 games as a home favorite.  The underdog is 10-4 ATS in the last 14 matchups.  Take Akron.

7* Vikings/Bears MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Chicago +3

The Key: The Chicago Bears are hungry for a win coming off 3 straight losses.  Those 3 losses were to 3 of the best teams in the NFL in the Saints, Rams and Titans.  Now they take a step down in competition here against the 3-5 Minnesota Vikings.  This is a very bad Vikings defense that yields 29.3 PPG and 413 YPG.  And while the Minnesota offense has put up good numbers this year, it has come against awful defenses outside the Colts, who they only managed 11 points against.  And the Bears are the Vikings’ kryptonite.  Chicago only gives up 21.1 PPG and 335 YPG this year.  The Bears are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 matchups with the Vikings while yielding only 16.3 PPG in those 6 contests.  They have won the last 4 outright.  Take Chicago.

6* Ravens/Patriots AFC *BAILOUT* on Baltimore -7

The Key: The Baltimore Ravens are 6-2 this season with their 2 losses coming to arguably the 2 best teams in the NFL in the Steelers and Chiefs.  Their 6 wins have come by 17.2 PPG this year so they are blowing out the teams they are supposed to.  And they should blow out the awful Patriots tonight.  New England has lost 4 of its last 5 with its only win coming on a last-second field goal over the Jets on Monday night.  Now the Patriots are on a short week with less time to prepare to try and stop Lamar Jackson and company.  That’s a huge disadvantage.  The Ravens should be able to run wild on this soft Patriots defense and name their score.  The Patriots are really lacking weapons on offense this season, and Cam Newton has been terrible.  New England QB’s have just 3 touchdown passes and 11 interceptions this year which is awful in today’s NFL.  The Ravens are 9-1 ATS in the 2nd half of the season over the last 2 years.  The Patriots are 0-6 ATS against good rushing teams that average 130 or more RYPG over the last 2 years.  Take Baltimore.

6* Bills/Cardinals Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Arizona -2.5

The Key: I like the situation for the Cardinals this week.  They were a little fat and happy coming into their bye week off their big win over the Seahawks the week prior.  And they laid an egg in an upset loss to the underrated Miami Dolphins last week.  They will be back focused this week.  Now they catch a fat and happy Bills team coming off an upset win of their own over the Seahawks.  That came after beating their biggest rivals in the Patriots the week prior.  They have a bye on deck next week and I think they could be looking ahead to it and not giving the Cardinals the proper attention they deserve.  This is a Cardinals offense that has put up 30-plus points in 4 straight and one that can out-duel Josh Allen and company.  The Cardinals also have the better defense as they yield only 22.5 PPG this year while Buffalo gives up 25.9 PPG.  The Cardinals are scoring 29.3 PPG while the Bills are scoring 26.9 PPG.  The numbers indicate the Cardinals should be more than 2.5-point home favorites, and the situation dictates it as well.  Arizona is 7-0 ATS in its last 7 games against poor pass defenses that allow 7 or more YPA.  The Cardinals are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games with a total of 49.5 or higher.  Take Arizona.

7* NFC East Game of the Year on Philadelphia Eagles -3.5

The Key: The Philadelphia Eagles are off their bye week and getting healthy to make a run in the 2nd half of the season.  They now have 4 playmakers back that they didn’t have before in RB Sanders, WR Jeffery, TE Goedert and WR Raegor.  They also have their 2 best offensive linemen back and healthy now in Johnson and Peters.  They didn’t have any of these guys when they played the Giants the first time.  They still managed to beat the Giants and put up 422 yards on them while limiting the Giants to just 305 yards.  That’s nothing new in this series as the Eagles are 8-0 SU in their last 8 matchups with the Giants.      The Giants only have 2 wins all season, and they both came against Washington by a combined 4 points.  And they only beat Washington by 3 last week despite being +5 in turnovers.  The Giants are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games as home dogs of 7 points or less.  Take Philadelphia.

6* SMU/Tulsa AAC *CA$H COW* on Tulsa -2.5

The Key: The Tulsa Golden Hurricane are a legit contender to win the American Athletic Conference this season.  They are 3-1 with their only loss coming in non-conference play in a game effort at Oklahoma State in a 7-16 loss as 23.5-point dogs.  Then they upset UCF as 20.5-point dogs to prove they are contenders before crushing South Florida 42-13 on the road.  They did barely squeak by ECU last time out, but now they’ve had 2 weeks to get ready for SMU coming off a bye week.  SMU has to be a tired team right now as they have played 8 games compared to just 4 for Tulsa.  And now the Mustangs will be playing for an 8th consecutive week.  After getting blown out 13-42 by Cincinnati, they were able to get by 2 bad teams in Temple and Navy the last 2 weeks.  But now this is a big step up in class and likely the 2nd-best team they’ve played all season here in Tulsa.  The Golden Hurricane want revenge rom a 37-43 (OT) loss to SMU last year as 12-point dogs.  They blew a 30-9 lead in the 4th quarter and have not forgotten.  It’s revenge time here Saturday.  The Mustangs are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games.  The Golden Hurricane are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 games off an ATS loss.  The Golden Hurricane are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 matchups.  Take Tulsa.

6* Northwestern/Purdue Big Ten *CA$H COW* on Purdue +3.5

The Key: Northwestern is starting to get too much love after starting the season 3-0.  Their last 2 wins were fortunate as they were outgained by 20 yards by Iowa in their 21-20 win and outgained by 125 yards by Nebraska in their 21-13 win.  Now they will be playing for a 4th straight week here.  Purdue is rested and ready off a bye week and off 2 straight wins over Iowa and Illinois.  The Boilermakers should not be catching 3.5 points at home here in what I have as a pretty evenly matched game, so the price is right to back the home team.  Purdue is 10-2 ATS as an underdog over the last 3 years.  The Boilermakers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as home dogs.  The Wildcats are 2-8-2 ATS in their last 12 games as favorites.  Take Purdue.

6* Baylor/Texas Tech Big 12 *CA$H COW* on Texas Tech -1.5

The Key: The Texas Tech Red Raiders are hungry for a win after 2 straight losses to Oklahoma and TCU after beating a very good West Virginia team at home.  They also took Texas to overtime at home earlier this year after blowing a 15-point lead.  This team has a nice home-field advantage and always has.  Baylor is coming off 4 straight losses after blowing a 21-7 lead to Iowa State last week.  The Bears are an inexperienced team that returned only 9 starters this year and lost a few more due to injury.  Now the Bears will be on the road for the 4th time in 5 games.  And the Bears have had zero success in Lubbock over the years.  Texas Tech is a perfect 9-0 SU in its last 9 home matchups with Baylor.  And we’re getting the Red Raiders at a great price here as only 1.5-point favorites in a game they basically just have to win to cover.  Take Texas Tech.

6* Saturday Sun Belt *Annihilator* on South Alabama +16

The Key: Louisiana is 6-1 SU this season but just 2-5 ATS.  They haven’t been able to put teams away as each of their last 5 wins have come by 10 points or fewer against the likes of Georgia State, Georgia Southern, UAB, Texas State and Arkansas State.  If those teams can play with them, South Alabama certainly can as well.  The Jaguars only lost by 17 to the best team in the Sun Belt last week in Coastal Carolina.  And this has been a very closely-contested series over the years.  Each of the last 6 matchups have been decided by 10 points or fewer.  South Alabama only lost by 10 as 28-point dogs last year and by 10 as 19.5-point dogs the year prior.  And this is an experienced Jaguars team that returned 15 starters this year and has the confidence that they can hang with Louisiana.  The Jaguars are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 conference games.  The Rajin’ Cajuns are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 conference games.  Take South Alabama.

7* Big 12 Game of the Month on West Virginia -3

The Key: West Virginia is one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They are just 4-3 this season but could easily be 7-0.  Their stats are that of a 6-1 team or better.  They are outgaining teams by 179 YPG this season and 1.2 YPP.  They had a win taken away from them last week by the refs at Texas as they refused to call a pass interference in the end zone on 4th down when they were going in for the game winning score.  Look for the Mountaineers to come back with a chip on their shoulder this week and make easy work of TCU.  The Horned Frogs rely heavily on their rushing game to move the football.  West Virginia only gives up 109 RYPG and 3.3 YPR this year.  They’ll stop the run with their elite defense and score enough points on this TCU defense to win this game with room to spare.  The Mountaineers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games off a game where they forced no turnovers.  The Mountaineers are 4-0 at home this year and winning by 25.0 PPG.  Take West Virginia.

7* NCAAF Friday Night Lights on East Carolina +28

The Key: East Carolina is better than its 1-5 record would suggest.  They had a win against Tulsa stolen from them by the refs.  And they haven’t lost by more than 23 points this year.  That 23-point loss came to UCF, a team that just runs at a frantic pace and puts up a lot of points on everyone.  Last year ECU only lost 43-46 at home to Cincinnati as a 24.5-point underdog.  The Pirates put up over 600 yards of offense in that defeat thanks to 535 passing yards and 5 total touchdowns from QB Holton Ahlers, who is back leading this ECU offense this season and having another great year.  Cincinnati has covered 3 in a row in wins over SMU, Houston and Memphis and now the price is too steep on them, especially since they are ranked in the Top 10 right now and getting 4-team playoff hype.  And they play UCF next week so could easily be looking ahead to that game and buying into the hype.  This game will be a lot closer than the oddsmakers expect.  Plus the Pirates are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as road dogs.  Take East Carolina.

7* Colts/Titans AFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Tennessee +1

The Key: The Tennessee Titans have picked up right where they left off last season.  They have gone 6-2 after making it all the way to the AFC Championship last year.  And for some reason this team just keeps flying under the radar.  Ryan Tannehill has played like an MVP since taking over at starting QB, and AJ Brown is one of the best receivers in the NFL.  Derrick Henry gets better as the season goes on and will be a big factor for them in the 2nd half of the season here.  The Colts have played the 32nd-ranked schedule in the NFL.  Their two toughest games they lost to the Ravens 10-24 at home and the Browns 23-32 on the road.  They also lost to the Jaguars in the opener.  I know the Colts have a great defense, but their offense leaves a lot to be desired as Philip Rivers just isn’t playing well at all.  Rivers has 10 touchdowns against 7 interceptions on the season.  Tannehill has 19 touchdowns and only 3 picks this year.  Henry has 843 yards and 8 touchdowns in 8 games and is on pace to lead the NFL in rushing.  The Titans are 4-1 at home this year with their only loss to the Steelers, who are 8-0 this year.  Take Tennessee.

7* Toledo/Western Michigan MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Western Michigan -2.5

The Key: The Western Michigan Broncos got in 8 spring practices and started off the season like gangbusters with their 58-13 throttling of Akron last week.  They outgained the Zips by 4.3 YPP in that game.  Toledo also had a nice win last week in a 38-3 victory over Bowling Green.  But head coach Jason Candle is struggling the last 2 seasons at Toledo with a combined 13-12 record.  The Rockets are on the decline and the Broncos have a great chance to beat them after losing the last 2 meetings.  Western Michigan went 6-0 at home last year, while Toledo is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 road games.  I like that combination here and the price with the Broncos as only 2.5-point home favorites.  Take Western Michigan.

7* Miami/Buffalo MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Buffalo -9.5

The Key: The Buffalo Bulls are loaded with 15 returning starters and the most talent in the MAC this season.  They are the favorites to win the conference.  They have everyone back on offense except for a couple offensive linemen from a unit that average 31.5 PPG last year.  That have 7 starters back on D from a unit that only gave up 21.3 PPG.  And they had 9 spring practices to boot.  Buffalo outgained Northern Illinois by 2.0 YPP in the opener and won 49-30 after leading 49-16.  Miami was outgained by 1.1 YPP by Ball State in the opener and was lucky to win 38-31.  Miami was also lucky to beat Buffalo last year despite getting outgained by 133 yards because they won the turnover battle 4-0.  They won’t be so fortunate in 2020 as Buffalo makes a statement here and avenges that defeat.  The Redhawks could be without starting QB Gabbert and they will be without their top 2 rushers from last year in Bester and Shelton.  The Bulls have won 7 of their last 8 games all by 19 points or more and are 7-1 ATS over that span.  Take Buffalo.

7* Patriots/Jets MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on New England -7

The Key: The New York Jets are 0-8 SU & 1-7 ATS this season.  They are losing by 18 PPG and all 8 losses have come by 8 points or more.  The Patriots still have hope to get back in this division race even after their loss to Buffalo last week.  It’s not like the Bills are playing great right now, and the Patriots had their chance to beat them, only losing by a field goal after Cam Newton fumbled.  The Patriots should get back on the winning track here against the Jets, who they have owned through the years.  That should continue in 2020 with the Jets being easily the worst team in the NFL right now.  Take New England.

7* Saints/Bucs NFC South Game of the Year on Tampa Bay -4.5

The Key: The Tampa Bay Bucs have gone 6-1 in their last 7 games overall and have outscored those 7 teams by 13.3 PPG.  They have been a completely different team since losing to the Saints in the opener, and now they are out to prove it and grab a stranglehold on this division as they get revenge at home.  The Bucs have scored at least 25 points in all 6 of their wins this year with an explosive offense.  They give up only 20.6 PPG and less than 300 YPG on the season with one of the top defenses in the NFL.  The Saints have won 4 straight games by 6 points or less and have been very fortunate.  They have a leaky defense that allows 28.1 PPG this year.  And Drew Brees isn’t what he used to be and is dealing with a shoulder injury right now.  The Saints are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games off 2 consecutive wins by 3 points or fewer.  Take Tampa Bay.

6* Dolphins/Cardinals Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Miami +4.5

The Key: The Arizona Cardinals had everything going their way going into their bye week with 3 straight victories.  So the bye week only could have hurt them from a mental perspective because it halts their momentum.  And their huge win over the Seahawks going into the bye probably has their heads a little bigger than they should be right now.  Miami is the type of team that nothing comes easy against.  The Dolphins are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall and have upset wins over the 49ers and Rams recently, 2 teams in the toughest division in the NFL.  They also played the Seahawks very tough, and now they get their shot at these Cardinals.  The Dolphins have the way better defense here giving up just 18.6 PPG this season.  They have also put up 26.9 PPG on offense and should unleash Tua this week at quarterback.  He didn’t have to do much last week because they jumped out to a 28-7 lead over the Rams.  The Dolphins are 7-0 ATS in Weeks 5 thru 9 over the last 2 years.  Take Miami.

6* Raiders/Chargers AFC West *CA$H COW* on Los Angeles PK

The Key: The Chargers might be the best 2-5 team I’ve ever seen, but they are now 0-3 in games in which they’ve had a 17-point lead or greater in 2020.  They blew another 21-point lead to the Broncos last week as things just spiraled against them.  But this is a young, resilient team that will try to bounce back this week and beat the Raiders.  The Chargers outgain their opponents by 53.1 YPG on the season, which is one of the best marks in the NFL.  The Raiders only outgain their opponents by 1.0 YPG on the season.  The Chargers are the better team, and we’re getting them at home as a pick ‘em.  This is a great value because the better public doesn’t want anything to do with them with their 2-5 record and all these blown leads.  That’s why you have to dig deeper into the numbers in the NFL and realize the Chargers are much closer to a 5-2 team than a 2-5 one.  Bets against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 after allowing 6 points or less last game against an opponent that is off a loss by 3 points or less are 34-8 ATS since 1983.  Take Los Angeles.

6* Washington State/Oregon State Pac-12 *BAILOUT* on Oregon State -1.5

The Key: Oregon State is a program on the rise.  After going just 2-10 in Jonathan Smith’s first year in 2018, the Beavers went 5-7 last year.  They won 4 Pac-12 games and had 3 losses by 3 points or less.  That’s how close they were to being an 8-4 team.  One of those close losses came to Washington State by a final of 53-54 that cost them a trip to a bowl game.  It’s now revenge time for the Beavers.  Smith is in his 3rd season with the program with 14 returning starters and his best team yet.  Washington State lost Mike Leach to Mississippi State and is in rebuilding mode.  They lose QB Anthony Gordon who had 5,579 yards and 48 TD last year.  They also lose their top 3 receivers, who combined for nearly 3,000 receiving yards and 26 TD.  The Cougars are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games.  The Beavers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.  Take Oregon State.

6* Stanford/Oregon Pac-12 *CA$H COW* on Stanford +10.5

The Key: The Stanford Cardinal have 16 starters back this year and are contenders in the Pac-12.  They have QB Davis Mills who gained valuable experience last year replacing an injured KJ Costello and completed nearly 66% of his passes on the season.  Oregon has just 9 returning starters and is a team on decline after losing QB Justin Herbert as an early first-round draft pick.  They have to replace all 5 starters on the offensive line and their quarterback.  I like to fade teams like this early in the season.  Take Stanford.

6* Houston/Cincinnati AAC *CA$H COW* on Houston +13.5

The Key: Cincinnati is coming off a massive win over Memphis last week.  The Bearcats had that game circled after losing to Memphis twice last season, including in the AAC Championship Game.  This is now a letdown spot for the Bearcats.  And this line is inflated because they hammered Memphis 49-10 and kept pouring it on.  They go from being underdogs to SMU to 6.5-point favorites over Memphis to now nearly 2-touchdown favorites against Houston.  And Houston may be better than both SMU and Memphis.  The Cougars played BYU very tough earlier this season and were leading in the 4th quarter.  They eventually lost to BYU, which is now 7-0 on the season.  They also lost to UCF, another team among the elite in the country.  And that 21-44 loss last week has this number inflated as well.  The Cougars are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 games as road underdogs.  Houston is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games off an ATS loss.  The road team is 4-0-1 ATS in the last 5 matchups.  Take Houston.

6* WVU/Texas Big 12 *CA$H COW* on West Virginia +6.5

The Key: West Virginia is one of the best teams in the country that not many know about.  You look at their numbers and they are better than their 4-2 record.  That showed up last week as they handed Kansas State their first conference loss of the season.  They dominated for 4 quarters and rolled to a 37-10 victory.  West Virginia is now outgaining its opponents by 209 YPG on the season with 465 YPG on offense and giving up only 256 YPG on defense.  Texas is only outgaining its opponents by 42 YPG.  The Longhorns were fortunate to beat Oklahoma State in overtime last week as they won the turnover battle 4-0 and were outgained by 243 yards.  West Virginia actually outgained Oklahoma State by 11 yards in their earlier meeting but lost.  Bets on road teams who allowed 225 or fewer yards in their previous game against an opponent that was outgained by 225 or more yards in their previous game are 34-6 ATS over the last 5 years.  Take West Virginia.

7* NCAAF Non-Conference Game of the Year on Liberty +15

The Key: The Liberty Flames are undefeated this season which includes a 17-point road win over Syracuse from the ACC.  This will be their toughest game yet, but they will be up to the task catching 15 points against the Virginia Tech Hokies.  Liberty is averaging 40 PPG this year and giving up only 24 PPG and 303 YPG.  They are loaded on offense behind former Auburn QB Malik Willis.  They are outgaining their opponents by 191 YPG this year.  Virginia Tech is giving up 31 PPG and 459 YPG this year.  They also give up 195 rushing yards per game, which is going to be a problem for them against a Liberty team that rushed for 257 yards per game.  Take Liberty.

7* Miami/NC State NCAAF Friday Night Lights on OVER 58.5

The Key: The OVER is 5-1 in NC State games this season.  The Wolfpack are built for high scoring games with a very good offense and a terrible defense.  They are giving up 34.2 PPG this year and have allowed 40-plus 3 times in 6 games.  They are scoring 31.5 PPG and even though they recently lost starting QB Devin Leary, they still managed to pass for 358 yards against UNC last time out.  Miami now has an elite offense this year thanks to Houston transfer D’Eriq King.  The Hurricanes have scored 31 or more points in 4 of their 6 games this year and will have no problem getting to 40-plus in this one.  The OVER is 3-0-1 in Hurricanes last 4 games as road favorites.  The OVER is 5-0 in Wolfpack last 5 games as an underdog.  Take the OVER.

7* Packers/49ers NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Green Bay -2.5

The Key: The Green Bay Packers are hungry for a couple of reasons here Thursday night.  They want to erase the taste of their upset loss to the Vikings last week, who were in a good spot coming off their bye week and the Packers just couldn’t stop Dalvin Cook.  And they also want revenge after losing to the 49ers in both matchups last year.  They were eliminated in the playoffs by a very good 49ers team.  But this 2020 version of the 49ers is a mash unit with all of their injuries.  It only got worse in their loss to the Seahawks last week with both Jimmy G and George Kittle having to leave the game with injuries.  I’m not even going to list all of their injuries because it would take too long.  Let’s just say their current roster has little chance of even being competitive against this 2020 Packers team.  The Packers are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS on the road this year with their only loss to the Bucs, who might be the best team in the NFC.  They beat the Saints, Vikings and Texans by a combined 31 points.  The 49ers are 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS at home this year with upset losses to the Cardinals, Eagles and Dolphins.  Bets on road teams off 5 straight games where they force 1 or fewer turnovers against an opponent that is coming off a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse are 36-13 ATS since 1983.  Take Green Bay.

6* Utah State/Nevada Mountain West *CA$H COW* on Nevada -15.5

The Key: The Nevada Wolf Pack are a real contender in the Mountain West this year.  They returned 17 starters, an elite offense, and a monster defensive line that is exactly what Jay Norvell has wanted since he arrived here.  The offense has put up 37 PPG thus far and the defense has limited the run, holding two good running teams in Wyoming and UNLV to 127 rushing yards per game and 3.8 per carry.  Utah State is in rebuilding mode after losing QB Jordan Love to the NFL and bringing back 13 starters this year.  That’s been evident as the Aggies have looked atrocious in their first two games.  They lost 13-42 to Boise State as 17-point dogs and 7-38 to San Diego State as 8.5-point dogs.  Their offense is averaging just 10 PPG and 209 YPG in the absence of Love, the first-round pick of the Green Bay Packers.  The Aggies are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games as underdogs.  The Wolf Pack are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.  The home team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 matchups.  Take Nevada.

7* Buffalo/NIU MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Buffalo -13

The Key: The Buffalo Bulls are loaded with 15 returning starters and the most talent in the MAC this season.  They should be the favorites to win the conference.  They have everyone back on offense except a couple offensive linemen from a unit that averaged 31.5 PPG last year.  They have 7 starters back on D from a unit that only gave up 21.3 PPG.  And then they got in 9 spring practices to boot.  Northern Illinois looks like one of the worst teams in the MAC with all of the transfers they lost and now having just 10 starters back or fewer.  They are likely to start 10 underclassmen and are lacking talent.  Buffalo went 7-1 ATS over its final 8 games last year with all 6 of its wins during that stretch coming by 19 points or more.  Take Buffalo.

7* Bucs/Giants MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on New York +11

The Key: All the value in backing the Bucs has gone by the wayside the last 2 weeks with their blowout wins over the Packers and Raiders.  Now they find themselves laying double-digits on the road against the New York Giants this week.  You just don’t want to be laying double-digits on the road in the NFL.  The price is right to back the Giants, who continue to play in close games and show up every week.  That’s why the Giants are 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games overall and have been a nice money maker.  They only lost by 4 to the Bears, by 8 to the Rams, by 3 to the Cowboys and by 1 to the Eagles and covered the spread in every one of those games.  One of their non-covers was a 20-19 win over Washington as 2-point favorites.  So, 5 of their last 6 games have been decided by 8 points or fewer.  They have a sneaky good defense that can keep them in games.  And Daniel Jones just got back his favorite receiver in Sterling Shepard from injury last week and he made an immediate impact.  Shepard has 6 receptions for 59 yards and a touchdown in a 21-22 road loss to the Eagles last Thursday.  That also means the Giants have extra time to prepare now after playing last Thursday.  New York is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games after playing a Thursday game.  Bets against road favorites who are outscoring opponents by 10 PPG or more off a win by 10 points or more are 51-20 ATS over the last 10 years.  Take New York.

6* Colts/Lions Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Detroit +3

The Key: The Detroit Lions have quietly gone 3-1 in their last 4 games overall.  They will be playing with a ton of confidence after knocking off the Falcons on the final play of the game last week.  And Matthew Stafford is enjoying having Kenny Golloday back at receiver after he missed the first 2 games of the season.  The defense is allowing just 18 PPG the last 2 weeks and things are looking up in Detroit.  The Indianapolis Colts are 4-2 but it has come against one of the easiest schedules in the NFL.  They have played the 32nd-ranked schedule thus far.  And the only teams they faced that have a winning record are the Bears and Browns who are both not as good as their records.  And they lost to the Browns.  The Lions have played 4 of their first 6 games on the road and have faced 4 winning teams.  Take Detroit.

6* Titans/Bengals AFC *CA$H COW* on Cincinnati +6

The Key: The Cincinnati Bengals continue to be a money maker due to their 1-5-1 SU record.  But they are 5-2 ATS with 6 of their 7 games decided by one score.  And all but one of their losses was by 5 points or less.  Their only blowout loss came at the hands of the Baltimore Ravens, which is understandable.  The Bengals now play the 5-1 Tennessee Titans who are nowhere near as good as their record.  The Titans are 4-1 in games decided by 6 points or less this year, so they have been very fortunate in close games.  And after losing after missing a last-second field goal to the unbeaten Pittsburgh Steelers last week, it’s one of those losses that could lead to a hangover here.  There’s no way the Titans will be as hungry to face the Bengals as they were the Steelers.  And we’ve seen bad teams like the Broncos, Jaguars, Vikings and Texans all take the Titans to the wire this season, so the Bengals are more than capable of doing the same.  Joe Burrow is having a huge rookie season and just threw for over 400 yards on the Browns last week.  He can keep them in games with all of the weapons he has on offense.  And he should find plenty of success against a soft Tennessee defense that yields 25.5 PPG and 402 YPG.  Bets on dogs of 3.5 to 10 points off a close loss by 3 points or less to a division opponent, a team that wins less than 25% of their games playing a team with a winning record are 31-9 ATS since 1983.  Take Cincinnati.

6* Rams/Dolphins Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Miami +4.5

The Key: Most people want to downgrade the Dolphins for switching from Ryan Fitzpatrick to Tua Tagovailoa.  While it is a questionable move, if you were going to do it, now is the time.  The Dolphins had a bye week to get Tua ready to run the offense.  And now the Rams have no idea what to prepare for this week.  I’m not downgrading the Dolphins like everyone else just yet.  This is a terrible spot for the Rams.  They are on a short week after beating the Bears on Monday Night Football.  And now they have to travel out East and face a 10:00 AM body clock game here against the Dolphins.  This is a Dolphins team playing well coming off back-to-back blowouts over the 49ers (43-17) and Jets (24-0).  Miami’s defense gives up just 18.8 PPG and is better than it gets credit for.  The Dolphins are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games off a bye week.  Take Miami.

6* Sunday NFL *UPSET SPECIAL* on Las Vegas Raiders +2.5

The Key: The Cleveland Browns are nowhere near as good as their 5-2 record would suggest.  Their 5 wins have come by a combined 32 points while their 2 losses have come by a combined 63 points.  They are actually getting outscored by 3.0 PPG this year.  The Las Vegas Raiders have faced a gauntlet of a schedule.  They have played 4 teams with winning records in the Saints, Bills, Chiefs and Bucs, and 2 teams at or around .500 in the Patriots and Panthers.  And they even upset the Saints 34-24 as 4-point dogs and the Chiefs 40-32 as 10-point dogs.  Football Outsiders shows the Raiders as having faced the single-toughest schedule in the NFL thus far.  They had some Covid issues last week that didn’t allow their offensive line to practice all week, plus they lost their best player on D in safety Johnathan Abram.  And it was a 24-20 game with the Bucs into the 4th quarter before things unraveled late.  Well, neither of those things will be an issue this week as they prepare to face the Browns.  Cleveland has the worse injury problems, especially now that they’ve lost their best receiver in Odell Beckham Jr. to a season-ending ACL tear suffered last week against the Bengals.  Bets on all teams with a line of +3 to -3 off 5 or more consecutive overs, an excellent offensive team that scores 27 PPG or more are 24-5 ATS since 1983.  The Raiders are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.  Take Las Vegas.

7* AFC North Game of the Year on Baltimore Ravens -3

The Key: The Baltimore Ravens are rested and ready to go coming off their bye week.  They won’t be lacking any motivation this week with their hated rivals in the Pittsburgh Steelers coming to town.  Having that opponent I’m sure made the Ravens sharp on their bye week.  And John Harbaugh is one of the best coaches in the NFL to back on extra rest.  He is 9-2 ATS off a bye as the coach of Baltimore.  The Ravens are 5-1 this year with their 5 wins coming by 17.8 PPG and their only loss coming to the Chiefs.  They will now hand the Steelers their first defeat of the season Sunday.  Take Baltimore.

6* Missouri/Florida SEC *CA$H COW* on Florida -12

The Key: The Florida Gators have had 3 weeks to get over their Covid-19 issues and get ready to face Missouri.  They are coming off their first loss of the season, a tough 38-41 road loss to a very good Texas A&M team.  So they should be playing with a chip on their shoulder and be ready to give a big effort for 4 quarters.  That should be enough to cover this 12-point spread against a Missouri team that is starting to get too much respect from the books.  After losing by 19 to Alabama and by 23 to Tennessee, Missouri has now pulled off 2 straight upset wins over LSU 45-41 on the road and Kentucky 20-10 at home.  But last week’s win over Kentucky comes with an asterisk.  The Wildcats lost starting QB Terry Wilson early in that game and could not get their offense going without him.  Florida will get its offense going against Missouri.  The Gators average 42.3 PPG and 464 YPG this year and have one of the best offenses in the country.  They can name their score against this Missouri defense that gave up 38 to Alabama, 35 to Tennessee and 41 to LSU.  The Tigers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games, and 7-20 ATS in their last 27 road games dating back further.  The Gators are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games off an ATS loss.  Take Florida.

6* Texas/Oklahoma State Big 12 *CA$H COW* on Texas +3.5

The Key: Oklahoma State is 4-0 but it has come against a soft schedule with their only road game thus far at Kansas.  Texas has played the much tougher schedule and is close to being 5-0 with a triple-OT loss to Oklahoma and a tough 31-33 loss to TCU in which they deserved to win.  If the Longhorns want any chance of winning the Big 12, this is a must-win now.  I think they get the job done with the better QB in Sam Ehlinger over Spencer Sanders.  Ehlinger has 17 touchdowns against 5 interceptions this year and has rushed for 293 yards and 7 scores.  He simply wills his team to wins.  Sanders has 1 TD and 2 INT and has only rushed for 80 yards and a score on 20 attempts.  He’s just a QB that I refuse to trust with my money.  Bets on road dogs of 3.5 to 10 points off a win by 10 points or more over a conference opponent against a team that’s off 3 straight conference wins are 70-32 ATS since 1992.  The road team is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 matchups.  Take Texas.

7* SEC Game of the Month on Auburn +3.5

The Key: LSU is getting too much respect as a road favorite here after beating South Carolina 52-24 last week.  Remember, this is the same team that lost 34-44 to Mississippi State as a 14.5-point favorite and 41-45 to Missouri as a 14-point favorite.  Their schedule has been extremely easy and they sit at just 2-2.  Freshman QB TJ Finley played well against South Carolina in place of Myles Brennan, who is doubtful to play this week.  But now Finley will be making his first SEC road start in a very tough place to play at Auburn.  Auburn has some great stats outside of their loss to Georgia.  They have outgained each of their last 3 opponents and outgained South Carolina by 179 yards but found a way to lose. LSU only outgained South Carolina by 138 yards and won by 28.  So those misleading final scores are providing us with some line value here on Auburn catching points at home.  Auburn is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games as a home underdog.  The home team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 matchups.  Auburn wants revenge from a 3-point loss last year and a 1-point loss to LSU in 2018.  Take Auburn.

6* UCF/Houston AAC *CA$H COW* on Houston +3

The Key: The Houston Cougars are loaded this season with 19 returning starters in the 2nd year under Dana Holgorsen.  Their lone loss came to a very good BYU team in which they led in the 4th quarter before getting outscored 22-0 in the final period.  They were only outgained by 40 yards by the Cougars.  They crushed Tulane 49-31 and Navy 37-21 in their other 2 games.  Clearly UCF has taken a step back this season with upset losses already to both Tulsa and Memphis.  And I think you can add another loss here against Houston.  The Knights are just too bad defensively to be trusted as they yield 33.4 PPG and 482.2 YPG this year.  UCF is 0-7 ATS after playing a game where 70 points or more were scored over the last 2 years.  Bets against road teams with a line of +3 to -3 with a good offense that averages 6.1 YPPG or more after allowing 475 YPG or more in their last 3 games are 24-4 ATS over the last 5 years.  Take Houston.

6* Saturday NCAAF *UPSET SPECIAL* on Georgia State +3

The Key: Coastal Carolina’s unbeaten season comes to an end this week.  Georgia State is the better team, especially now that the Chanticleers are expected to be without starting QB Grant McCall.  He has 11 touchdown passes and only 1 interception this season and has also rushed for 3 touchdowns.  He is irreplaceable for a team like Coastal Carolina.  Georgia State has an elite offense that averages 237 rushing yards and 229 passing yards this season behind the great play of freshman QB Cornelius Brown.  It’s a good matchup for the Panthers too as they give up just 97 RYPG and 3.2 YPC this year.  They have what it takes defensively to stop Coastal Carolina’s rushing attack, which averages 188 RYPG on 44 attempts per game.  Take Georgia State.

6* Hawaii/Wyoming Mountain West *BAILOUT* on Wyoming PK

The Key: I went against Wyoming last week as they were favored on the road against a Nevada team that I think has a legit shot to win the Mountain West this year.  But Wyoming made it interesting and never gave up, eventually losing 34-37.  But now I’m siding with Wyoming this week as they play their first home game against a Hawaii team that I believe to be overrated.  Hawaii is under a first-year head coach in Todd Graham.  They did beat a Fresno State team that’s in transition last week also with a new head coach.  But they were gifted that win with 4 turnovers.  Wyoming isn’t the type of team that gives away anything easy.  And they have a great home-field advantage in Laramie as they went 6-0 at home last year.  The weather will also be working in their favor as temps will be in the 30s Friday night with wind gusts of 15 to 25 MPH.  They play great defense under Craig Bohl in his 7th season and have allowed 22 PPG or fewer each of the last 3 years, so their performance against a good Nevada offense last week was an aberration.  Take Wyoming.

7* Falcons/Panthers NFC South *HEAVY HITTER* on Carolina -2.5

The Key: The situation couldn’t be much worse for the Atlanta Falcons this week.  They are coming off a 22-23 loss to the Lions when they had the game in the bag if they had just executed.  But they scored a TD instead of running the clock out and kicking a chip shot FG, opening the door for the Lions to win on the final play of the game.  Now the Falcons are 1-6 with nothing to play for the rest of the way.  The Panthers are 3-4 right now and could easily be 6-1.  They still believe they can make the playoffs and this is a huge game for them.  Teddy Bridgewater is playing great football and threw for 313 yards and 2 touchdowns in their 23-16 win in Atlanta earlier this year.  The Panthers could get Christian McCaffrey back this week.  This will only be the 2nd outdoor game for the Falcons this year.  They lost by 14 to the Packers in their only other outdoor game and are now 0-5 ATS in their last 5 grass games.  The Panthers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after yielding more than 350 yards in their previous game.  The home team is 11-5 ATS in the last 16 matchups.  Take Carolina.

6* South Alabama/Georgia Southern Sun Belt *CA$H COW* on South Alabama +4

The Key: South Alabama has a common opponent with Georgia Southern that makes be believe the Jaguars are the better team here.  South Alabama beat Louisiana Monroe 38-14 and Georgia Southern only beat that same team 35-30.  It’s also a good matchup for South Alabama’s defense as Georgia Southern rushes for 249 YPG but only passes for 114 YPG. South Alabama only gives up 135 RYPG and 3.9 YPC on the ground this season.  Their weakness defensively has been against the pass, but that won’t be an issue here.  And South Alabama clearly has the better offense averaging 412 YPG compared to 363 YPG for Georgia Southern.  And it’s also worth noting South Alabama has faced the much more difficult schedule.  Bets on road dogs who covered 4 of their last 5 games that win between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 32-10 ATS over the last 10 years.  The Jaguars are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games after yielding more than 280 passing yards last game.  Take South Alabama.

7* Bears/Rams MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Los Angeles -5

The Key: The Chicago Bears are a paper tiger.  They are 5-1 and could easily be 1-5 instead.  They came back from 17 down to beat the Lions and 16 down to beat the Falcons in the 4th quarter of both those games.  They came back from 13-0 down to beat the Bucs.  They needed a late stop to beat the Giants 17-13.  And last week needed a late stop to avoid OT against the Panthers.  They were beat worse than the 19-11 score against the Colts would indicate.  And they are getting outgained by nearly 25 YPG this year, which isn’t what you would expect from a 5-1 team.  They will get exposed by the Rams, who are 4-2 and outgaining their opponents by nearly 70 YPG on the season.  It is a Rams team that will be playing hungry after losing to the 49ers last week.  The Rams have actually been better defensively than the Bears this season in giving up 318 YPG compared to 337 YPG for the Bears.  And the Rams have the way better offense in averaging 388 YPG compared to 313 YPG for the Bears.  The Rams are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games off an ATS loss.  They will win this game by a TD or more Monday night.  Take Los Angeles.

6* Jaguars/Chargers Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Los Angeles -7.5

The Key: Without question, the Los Angeles Chargers are the best one-win team in the NFL this season.  They could easily be 4-1 instead.  They lost to the Chiefs by 3 as 9-point dogs, lost to the Panthers by 5, lost to the Bucs by 7 and lost to the Saints by 3.  Those are four teams who are all .500 or better this season, so they have played a brutal schedule.  Now they have had 2 weeks to regroup, rest and prepare to face the 2nd-worst team in the NFL in the Jacksonville Jaguars.  The Jaguars had a fluky win in their opener over the Colts in which they were outgained by more than 200 yards.  They have since gone 0-5 with those five losses coming by an average of 12.6 points per game.  Their leaky defense has allowed at least 30 points in all 5 defeats.  Justin Herbert is proving to be a steal in the draft as he has been nothing but impressive.  He is completing 68.8% of his passes and 8.5 YPA with 9 touchdowns against 3 interceptions.  He will light up this soft Jacksonville defense as the Chargers let out some frustration here with a blowout victory off their bye.  Bets against dogs of 3.5 to 10 points after allowing 30 points or more in 2 straight games against an opponent that scored 17 points or more in the first half of 2 straight games are 26-6 ATS since 1983.  Take Los Angeles.

7* Bucs/Raiders Sunday Night Game of the Year on Las Vegas +3

The Key: The Las Vegas Raiders have wins over the Saints 34-24 and the Chiefs 40-32.  If those two results don’t tell you how capable this team is, I don’t know what will.  Yet the Raiders are once again getting overlooked as 3-point home dogs to the Tampa Bay Bucs.  This is a letdown spot for the Bucs off their huge win over Aaron Rodgers and the Packers last week.  And we saw the Bucs go on the road and get beat by the Bears the last time they traveled as similar 3-point favorite.  The Raiders have an elite offense that score 30.2 PPG and will test this Tampa defense.  They are led by Derek Carr, who is having a career year with 73.1% completions and 11 touchdowns against only 1 interception this year.  He and Jon Gruden are on the same page right now.  The Bucs are 0-6 ATS in road games against teams that win 60% to 75% of their games over the last 3 years.  Take Las Vegas.

6* Panthers/Saints NFC South *CA$H COW* on Carolina +7.5

The Key: The Carolina Panthers had won 3 straight before laying an egg last week in a 16-23 home loss to the Chicago Bears.  It was a team not used to success, and they basically threw a pick-6 on their first drive and were chasing that 7 points the rest of the game.  They will had a chance to force OT at the end but came up short.  Look for them to come back with much better focus this week against a division rival in New Orleans.  And Teddy Bridgewater wants to prove to his former team that they made a mistake by going back to Drew Brees last season after Bridgewater had strung together several wins for them and looked impressive in doing so.  He might be the single-most underrated QB in the NFL today.  And Brees looks like a shell of his former self with terrible arm strength.  They lost to the Packers ar home and should have lost to the Chargers at home, but escaped with a 3-point victory.  They are beatable here in New Orleans, especially with the lack of fans due to the pandemic.  I think they are getting too much respect for home-field advantage here when there’s definitely not 7.5 points between these teams on a neutral.  Take Carolina.

6* Cincinnati/SMU AAC *BAILOUT* on SMU -2.5

The Key: The SMU Mustangs are 5-0 this season and a legit contender to win the American Athletic Conference.  Sonny Dykes is doing great things here, and the Mustangs have the numbers to back up their 5-0 record.  They have an explosive offense that averages 42.6 PPG and 563.2 YPG and a solid defense that yields 25.4 PPG.  Cincinnati is 3-0 but against a much easier schedule than SMU has faced.  Their 3 wins all came at home over Austin Peay, Army and South Florida.  They only managed 396 YPG and gave up 306.7 YPG against those 3 poor teams.  Now they will be going on the road for the first time this year.  I don’t think they have the firepower offensively to match SMU in this one.  Bets on home favorites who outgain their opponents by 100 YPG or more against a good team outgaining opponents by 50-100 YPG, after outgaining their last opponent by 175 or more yards are 26-6 ATS over the last 5 years.  SMU was much more dominant than the final score against Tulane last week as they needed OT despite outgaining the Green Wave by 194 yards.  They remain underrated despite being 5-0.  Take SMU.

7* Mountain West Game of the Month on Nevada +4.5

The Key: Nevada should not be a home dog to Wyoming in the Mountain West opener for both teams.  The Wolf Pack are a real contender in the MWC and my pick to win the West division this year.  They have 17 starters back and enter Year 4 under Jay Norvell, who has gotten them to a bowl game in each of his last 2 seasons.  They have a loaded offense with 10 starters back and should make big strides on that side of the ball.  And Norvell finally has a big defensive line with two DE over 270 pounds and two DT over 300 pounds.  It should be his best defense yet.  Wyoming is a tough team to trust to lay points because they never have a very good offense.  They do have a good defense year in and year out, but they will take a step back this year with only 5 starters back and the loss of their top 3 tacklers on D.  The Wolf Pack are 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 home games and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as home dogs.  Take Nevada.

6* Saturday NCAAF *UPSET SPECIAL* on Indiana +6.5

The Key: The Indiana Hoosiers finished with a winning record in the Big Ten and overall for the first since since 1993 last year.  Head coach Tom Allen has this team on the rise and this is his best team yet as he enters his 4th season in Bloomington.  The Hoosiers return 17 starters and want revenge from narrow losses to Penn State each of the last 2 seasons. They lost 28-33 to Penn State as 14-point home dogs in 2018 and outgained the Nittany Lions 554 to 417 in that game.  Last year they lost 27-34 despite once again having the 462 to 371 yardage edge.  They really should have won both those games, and they have not forgotten.  Now they right another wrong in their opener and pull the upset here at home.  Take Indiana.

6* Saturday NCAAF Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Liberty -11

The Key: Hugh Freeze is working his magic with this Liberty program.  The Flames are 4-0 this season and there has been nothing fraudulent about this start.  They just went on the road and beat Syracuse 38-21 handily as 3-point favorites to knock off a Power 5 team.  Their stats are so impressive.  They are gaining 484 YPG and giving up just 275 YPG on defense, outgaining foes by 209 YPG on the season.  Southern Miss has been hit hard by Covid-19.  They will now have their 3rd different head coach for Saturday.  They fired Jay Hopson after a season-opening loss to South Alabama.  Scotty Walden was named interim coach, but now he is out this week with Covid-19.  And that leaves Tim Billings will be in line to coach the team.  The Eagles are 1-3 this season with their only win coming against a terrible North Texas team.  They lost by 11 to South Alabama at home, by 1 to a bad LA Tech team that was missing several players due to Covid, and by 42 to a Tulane team that has shown they aren’t very good either.  Liberty will be the best team they have faced yet, and it’s really not even close.  They give up 40 PPG and 490.5 YPG on the season, so the Flames should be able to name their score and run away with this one.  Bets against any team that is outscored by 7 or more PPG, after 2 straight games where 70 or more points were scored are 50-15 ATS over the last 5 years.  Oddsmakers haven’t caught on to how good this Flames team is just yet, so we’ll keep capitalizing.  Take Liberty.

6* Oklahoma/TCU Big 12 *CA$H COW* on TCU +7

The Key: The TCU Horned Frogs have shown me enough against a brutal schedule to know they can compete with Oklahoma.  They are 1-2, but they only lost by 3 to Iowa Stat and by 7 to Kansas State, who are both 3-0 in Big 12 play.  They also upset Texas 33-31 as 10.5-point road dogs.  Oklahoma needed triple-OT to beat Texas and also lost by 7 to Iowa State.  Oklahoma also lost outright to Kansas State as a 28-point favorite.  The Sooners are way overvalued early in the season, and based on those results, these are pretty even teams.  TCU actually has the better QB in my opinion in Max Duggan, who is completing 68.8% of his passes and averaging 7.8 YPA this year.  And TCU certainly has the better defense in giving up 366.7 YPG compared to 40 PPG and 415 YPG for Oklahoma in conference play.  And the Sooners have a laundry list of injuries right now, while the Horned Frogs are very healthy.  Gary Patterson is 14-4 ATS in home games off a bye week as the coach of TCU.  Take TCU.

7* Illinois/Wisconsin NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Wisconsin -18.5

The Key: The Wisconsin Badgers have had this game circled all offseason.  They lost 23-24 as 29-point favorites at Illinois last year.  Now they are only 18.5-point home favorites in the rematch, a 10.5-point adjustment.  Oddsmakers are putting too much thought into the injury to Wisconsin QB Jack Coan.  It’s a blessing in disguise as redshirt freshman Graham Mertz is about as exciting of a recruit as the Badgers have ever had.  He should be their best QB since Russell Wilson was in Madison.  Wisconsin rebounded from that loss to Illinois to win the West and gave Ohio State a run for its money in the Big Ten Title game.  Now the Badgers have 15 starters back and one of the best defenses in the country with 9 starters back from a unit that gave up 16.9 PPG last year.  Illinois made a bowl game for the first time since 2014 last year.  But they lost their final 3 games, including a 19-point home loss to a bad Northwestern team and a 15-point loss to a bad Cal team in the bowl.  Wisconsin has won 7 straight home meetings with Illinois by an average of 19.1 PPG.  The last 2 in Madison have resulted in Badgers wins by 29 and 45 points.  Take Wisconsin.

7* Giants/Eagles NFC *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 43.5

The Key: The Giants are built for UNDERS right now.  They have a pitiful offense that is missing their two best players in Saquon Barkley and Sterling Shepard.  They are averaging just 16.8 PPG and 275 YPG on the season.  But their defense has been solid in yielding only 342 YPG.  The Eagles are struggling offensively because they are missing 9 starters due to injury.  They average just 329 YPG and give up 355 YPG.  Bets on the UNDER on road teams where the total is 42.5 to 49 versus division opponents, off a no-cover where they won straight up as a favorite are 25-5 over the last 10 years.  The Giants are 31-11 UNDER in their last 42 games off a win by 3 points or less.  The Eagles are 7-0 UNDER as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points over the last 3 years.  Take the UNDER.

6* Ark State/App State Sun Belt *CA$H COW* on Arkansas State +13.5

The Key: Arkansas State has shown they can play with two of the better teams in the country.  They covered in a 13-point loss to Memphis and beat Kansas State outright as 15-point dogs.  They also beat a very good Georgia State team last week.  Their only poor performance came in their first game off a Covid break against Coastal Carolina in which the Chanticleers simply played keep away from them and held the ball for over 41 minutes. The Red Wolves are good enough to hang with Appalachian State, which lost 7-17 to Marshall and isn’t as good as they have been the past few years.  Their two wins came over two bad teams in Charlotte and Campbell, and they only beat Charlotte by 15.  Arkansas State is better than Charlotte and will hang here as they try to prove they are contenders in the Sun Belt.  Take Arkansas State.

7* Chiefs/Bills MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Buffalo +5

The Key: This was only going to be about a 1-point spread before the Bills played the Titans on Tuesday.  Well, the Bills lost that game 16-42, but it was a misleading final score. The Bills actually outgained the Titans by 36 yards in that game but gave it away with turnovers.  Now the Bills come back as 5-point home dogs to the Chiefs, which is a 4-point adjustment.  The price is right to back the Bills now.  The Chiefs were exposed last week in their 32-40 loss to the Raiders, and there was nothing fluky about it.  The Raiders gashed the Chiefs for 490 yards and outgained them by 77 yards.  Speaking of gashed, the Chiefs are giving up 158 rushing yards per game and 5.0 yards per carry.  The Bills can run the football and keep Patrick Mahomes off the field, which is a great game plan.  And Buffalo can match Kansas City score for score offensively as these offenses have put up similar numbers.  The Bills are averaging 27.8 PPG and 401.8 YPG while the Chiefs are putting up 29.8 PPG and 407.2 YPG.  This is a much closer game than this 5-point spread would indicate, and you have to give the Bills some home-field advantage here too.  Take Buffalo.

6* Packers/Bucs NFC *CA$H COW* on Tampa Bay +1

The Key: I like the price we are getting on the Tampa Bay Bucs as home underdogs.  Bruce Arians is 9-1 ATS as a home dog of 3 points or less as a head coach in this league.  And it’s rare you get the chance to back Tom Brady as a home dog.  I like that combination.  The Packers don’t get the normal benefit of a bye week because the Bucs also had a makeshift bye of their own after playing the Bears last Thursday.  Aaron Rodgers is having an MVP season, but he’ll be up against an underrated Tampa Bay defense that only yields 298.2 YPG and 5.2 YPP this year.  To compare, the Packers give up 6.4 YPP on defense.  And I think both offenses will have success, but it’s the Tampa Bay defense that I trust to get the critical stops to win this game.  Take Tampa Bay.

6* Lions/Jaguars Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Detroit -3

The Key: The Detroit Lions’ 3 losses this season have come to the Bears, Packers and Saints who are a combined 11-3 on the season.  They also went on the road and beat the 3-2 Cardinals.  No team has played a tougher schedule than them.  And now they finally get a break and a bye week to get ready for the Jaguars.  This is a Jacksonville team coming off 4 straight losses by an average of 11.3 PPG.  The Lions are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games off a bye.  Take Detroit.

7* AFC South Game of the Year on Houston Texans +3.5

The Key: This is a terrible situation for the Tennessee Titans.  They are coming off a huge win Tuesday against the Buffalo Bills.  It was a misleading 42-16 final because the Bills actually outgained them by 36 yards but gave the game away with turnovers.  And now the Titans are working on an extra short week having to get ready for another game Sunday.  They won’t be ready, and keep in mind they were fortunate to win their first 3 games of the season against some bad teams.  They beat the Jaguars (33-30), Vikings (31-30) and Broncos (16-14) by a combined 6 points.  Those 3 teams are a combined 3-11 on the season.  The Texans were rejuvenated with the firing of head coach Bill O’Brien last week.  Romeo Crennel took over and led them to a 30-14 win over the Jaguars.  Their offense racked up nearly 500 total yards in the win.  That Houston offense should be able to do whatever it wants to against a Titans defense giving up 409.3 YPG and 6.3 YPP on the season.  And the Texans need this game more if they want to stay alive in the division with the Titans being 4-0 and the Texans being just 1-4.  The Texans have played the much tougher schedule though with their 4 losses coming to the Chiefs, Ravens, Steelers and Vikings.  They are undervalued right now because of that tough schedule.  Take Houston.

6* Saturday NCAAF *UPSET SPECIAL* on Memphis +3.5

The Key: The Memphis Tigers have had this game circled all offseason.  They have lost 13 straight to UCF and enough is enough.  Five of those losses have come by a TD or less and many have been recently.  UCF is ripe for the picking this year as evidenced by their 26-34 loss to Tulsa as 20.5-point favorites last time out.  They are missing several players to injury or personal reasons, and they are the most penalized team in the country.  The Tigers are 14-4 ATS off a loss by 3 points or less to a conference opponent and are coming off a 3-point loss to a very good SMU team on the road.  The Knights are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games off a loss.  The Tigers are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games off a bye week.  The Tigers are 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20 home games.  The home team is 12-1 ATS in the last 13 matchups, and the Tigers are 4-0 ATS int heir last 4 home matchups with UCF.  Take Memphis.

6* Pitt/Miami ACC *CA$H COW* on Pittsburgh +13.5

The Key: The Pitt Panthers could easily be 5-0 this year.  But they are coming off 2 straight crushing 1-point losses and want to rebound in a big way here if they want any chance to win the Coastal.  They take on the Miami Hurricanes, who got a dose of reality latst week in losing 17-42 to Clemson.  They were outgained by 340 yards by the Tigers and held to just 210 total yards.  Pitt has an elite defense that only gives up 264 YPG and 4.2 YPP this year.  Their defense will keep them in this game, and their offense has been great through the air and will test this Miami defense.  This spread is way higher than it should be.  Take Pittsburgh.

6* NCAAF Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Liberty -3

The Key: There has been nothing fraudulent about Liberty’s 3-0 starts with wins over WKU, FIU and LA Monroe.  They are averaging 471 YPG on offense and giving up just 264 YPG on defense, outgaining opponents by 207 YPG.  Syracuse is 1-3 with some terrible stats to boot.  The Orange are averaging just 254 YPG on offense and yielding 476 YPG on defense, getting outgained by 222 YPG.  And Syracuse just lost starting QB Tommy Devito to a season-ending ankle injury late in the loss to Duke last week.  That’s a huge blow as they will now have to turn to Rex Culpepper at quarterback.  Liberty is favored for good reason here and should be a bigger favorite.  Take Liberty.

6* Kentucky/Tennessee SEC *CA$H COW* on Kentucky +6

The Key: The price is right to back Kentucky in a game that I view as very evenly-matched, so getting 6 points is a nice value.  Kentucky really should be 3-0, but since they are 1-2 there’s value in the line.  They outgained Auburn by 60 yards in a loss.  They missed an extra point in overtime against Ole Miss that cost them the game.  And their true colors showed last week in a dominant 24-2 win over Mississippi State.  Tennessee was fortunate to beat South Carolina in the opener.  And they were exposed last week in a 21-44 loss to Georgia.  If they wanted to win the SEC East, they needed to win that game against the Bulldogs.  They will suffer a hangover from that defeat and won’t be fully recovered in time to face this hungry Wildcats squad.  Kentucky is 10-2 ATS off a home win over the last 3 years.  The Wildcats are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games off a win.  The Volunteers are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 against a team with a winning record.  The Vols are 8-17 ATS in their last 25 home games.  The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 matchups.  Take Kentucky.

7* SEC Game of the Year on South Carolina +3.5

The Key: South Carolina played both Tennessee and Florida tough in 2 losses.  They were only outgained by a combined 34 yards by those two teams.  Then they blitzed Vanderbilt 41-7 last week.  And now they will take down Auburn, who are fortunate to be 2-1 instead of 0-3.  The Tigers were outgained by 60 yards by Kentucky and needed a last-second field goal to beat terrible Arkansas.  They also lost by 21 to Georgia.  The Gamecocks are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home games off a win by 21 points or more against an SEC opponent.  Take South Carolina.

7* SMU/Tulane NCAAF Friday Night Lights on SMU -6

The Key: SMU is 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS this year and one of the best Group of 5 teams in the country.  They beat the best Group of 5 team last year in Memphis 30-27 last time out and now have had 2 weeks to get ready for Tulane.  The Green Wave are 2-2 SU & 1-3 ATS and fortunate to be 2-2.  They had to come back from a 24-7 deficit to beat lowly South Alabama 27-24 in their opener.  Then they lost to a bad Navy team 24-27 before beating terrible Southern Miss.  They lost 31-49 last week to Houston despite being +5 in turnovers.  They were outgained 211 to 476 by the Cougars in that defeat.  QB play gives SMU a huge edge here.  Former Texas transfer Shane Buechele is in the 2nd season in Sonny Dykes’ system.  He is completing 69.1% of his passes for 1,326 yards with 10 touchdowns against only 2 interceptions.  Tulane has one of the worst QB situations in college football as both Keon Howard and Michael Pratt have been terrible.  The Green Wave are completing just 43.6% of their passes for 146 yards per game and 5.8 per attempt on the year.  And they lost their top 2 running backs in Tyjae Spears and Corey Dauphine to season-ending injuries, so their offense is in a world of hurt right now.  SMU is going to get its points, and I just don’t think Tulane can keep up with their suspect offense. Take SMU.

6* Georgia State/Arkansas State Sun Belt *CA$H COW* on Georgia State +3.5

The Key: Georgia State returned 16 starters from the team that beat Arkansas State 52-38 last year.  The Panthers had 39 first downs and 722 total yards in that game while limiting Arkansas State to 421 total yards.  The Panthers look like one of the best teams in the Sun Belt through two games.  They took Louisiana to overtime and crushed East Carolina 49-29.  And now the Panthers have nearly 2 weeks to get ready for this game with Arkansas State.  The Red Wolves just played on Saturday against Central Arkansas after getting crushed by Coastal Carolina, 23-52.  So Arkansas State has just 4 days to prepare for Georgia State.  They are at a severe disadvantage here schedule-wise, especially since their team has been hit hard by Covid-19 in the past few weeks.  Take Georgia State.

6* Coastal Carolina/Louisiana-Lafayette Sun Belt *CA$H COW* on Louisiana -7

The Key: Louisiana beat Coastal Carolina 48-7 last year on the road.  If oddsmakers would have set this line before the season, Louisiana would be a minimum of a 14-point favorite and probably higher.  But we are getting Louisiana at -7 here despite the fact that Louisiana is 3-0 and has done what they are supposed to do.  They’ve done even more than that with their upset road win in the opener.  And they did not play well their last 2 games and still won, and part of that was due to a letdown and also Covid-19 problems.  The Rajin’ Cajuns are rested and back healthy now since they haven’t played since September 26th.  Coastal Carolina is also 3-0 but against a much softer schedule in Kansas, Campbell and Arkansas State.  This is a big step up for them and I don’t think they’re ready for it.  Louisiana should show out on this ESPN spotlight game tonight.  Take Louisiana.

7* Bills/Titans AFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Buffalo -3

The Key: The Buffalo Bills are better on both sides of the football in this matchup with the Tennessee Titans.  While the Bills have pretty much dominated and led almost the entire way during their 4-0 start, the Titans have not looked near as dominant in their 3-0 start.  Their 3 wins came against teams who are a combined 3-11 and they came by a combined 6 points with a 2-point win over Denver, a 3-point win over Jacksonville and a 1-point win over Minnesota.  The Titans gave up an average of 422.3 YPG against those 3 offenses and now have to face a dangerous Bills offense that averages 30.8 PPG and 409.8 YPG this year.  The Titans have been shredded on the ground for 166 RYPG and 5.8 YPC.  The Bills should be able to move the football at will on them either on the ground or through the air.  Bets against dogs of 3.5 to 10 points who allowed 30 points or more in 2 straight games against a team that scored 17 points or more in the first half of 2 consecutive games are 26-6 ATS since 1983.  The Bills are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as favorites.  Buffalo is 8-2-2 ATS in its last 12 road games.  Tennessee is 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 home games.  Take Buffalo.

7* Chargers/Saints MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Los Angeles +8

The Key: Los Angeles rookie QB Justin Herbert has been awesome in his 3 starts this season.  He is completing 72% of his passes and averaging 310.3 passing yards per game.  With him under center, the Chargers have a good chance of going on the road and knocking off the New Orleans Saints this week, who have a ton of key injuries on both sides of the ball.  And the Chargers have a pretty underrated defense with Bosa and Ingram leading the way as pass rushers.  Herbert and that defense have been keeping Los Angeles in games this season as all 4 of their games have been decided by 7 points or fewer.  The Chargers are 33-15-4 ATS in their last 52 games as road underdogs.  The Saints are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games as home favorites.  Take Los Angeles.

6* Dolphins/49ers Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Miami +9

The Key: The Miami Dolphins haven’t lost by more than 10 points this season despite being 1-3.  Those 3 losses came to the Bills, Seahawks and Patriots who have combined to go 10-2.  They were in every game, and they will certainly be in this game against the 49ers, who are worse than all 3 of those teams due to all their injuries.  And the 49ers have been terrible as home favorites over the years.  They are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games as a home favorite of -6.5 or more, which includes outright losses to both the Cardinals and Eagles this season.  Their only 2 wins this year came against the Giants and Jets, and I think most can agree those are the two worst teams in the NFL.  Take Miami.

6* LA/Washington NFC *CA$H COW* on Washington +7.5 

The Key: The Washington Football Team has new life with Kyle Allen replacing Dwayne Haskins.  Haskins was the worst starting quarterback in the NFL and turned the ball over too many times for Washington to have any chance of winning games.  The only game he didn’t turn it over they upset the Eagles.  Allen can only be an upgrade.  The Rams have one of the toughest early travel schedules that I’ve ever seen.  They have to go out East for the 3rd time in 4 weeks here after previously traveling to Philadelphia and Buffalo.  This is an early start time and a 10 AM body clock game for the Rams, which is always tough for West Coast teams.  Especially when having to do it 3 times in 4 weeks.  And the Rams showed signs of fatigue last week as they had to fight tooth and nail to beat the Giants 17-9 as 13-point favorites.  Their offense only had 240 total yards in that win.  And now they are up against another underrated defense here in Washington that should have Chase Young back healthy this week.  The Rams are 2-13 ATS after a home game in which they won SU but did not cover the spread.  Take Washington. 

7* AFC West Game of the Year on Las Vegas Raiders +13

The Key: The Raiders have looked very good against a very tough schedule this year.  They are 2-2 but could easily be 4-0.  They beat the Panthers on the road in Week 1, upset the Saints at home in Week 2, and then lost to the Patriots and Bills.  But they had their chances to win both of those games as they were only outgained by 31 yards by the Patriots and outgained the Bills by 46 yards.  I liked the fire I saw from QB Derek Carr after that loss to the Bills saying he’s tired of losing, and this team is too good for this.  Look for the Raiders to give the Chiefs a run for their money this week.  This is a tough scheduling spot for the Chiefs.  They are coming off 2 straight huge Monday Night Football wins over the Ravens and Patriots.  They were outgained by 34 yards by the Patriots last week, who were playing without Cam Newton too.  And now they are on a short week here.  You’re paying a tax to back the Chiefs now, and the tax is too steep this week.  Take Las Vegas.

6* Miami/Clemson ACC *CA$H COW* on Miami +14

The Key: The Miami Hurricanes finally have a QB in Houston transfer D’Eriq King.  The rest has fallen into place as the Hurricanes are off to a 3-0 start this year.  They beat a pesky UAB team 31-14, had no trouble in beating a good Louisville team 47-34 on the road, and blasted Florida State 52-10 at home.  Now the Hurricanes have had 2 weeks to get ready for Clemson after having a bye last week.  Meanwhile, Clemson played Virginia last week in a 41-23 win, failing to cover as 28-point favorites.  And they weren’t very impressive at all as they only outgained Virginia by 49 yards.  This is easily Clemson’s toughest test yet after also playing lowly Wake Forest and The Citadel.  The Tigers always come close to getting upset every year in one game, and this appears to be the one.  King is completing 67% of his passes with 6 TD and 0 INT, while also rushing for 157 yards and a score.  He is the game changer the Hurricanes have been missing, and he’s the reason they have a chance to hang with Clemson Saturday.  Take Miami.

6* FSU/Notre Dame ACC *CA$H COW* on Florida State +21

The Key: You won’t find the Florida State Seminoles at a better price than they are right now.  That’s because they are 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS to start the year.  But this team still has a ton of talent, and should have more continuity now under first-year head coach Mike Norvell.  Notre Dame only beat an 0-4 Duke team 27-13 in the opener.  So if Duke can hang around, Florida State certainly can.  The Fighting Irish are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games off 2 consecutive home wins by 14 points or more.  Notre Dame is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 home games off 2 consecutive home wins.  The price is right to back the Seminoles.  Take Florida State.

7* Big 12 Game of the Month on Kansas State +9

The Key: The Kansas State Wildcats are now 2-0 in Big 12 play.  They upset Oklahoma on the road as 28-point dogs and handled their business in a 31-21 win over Texas Tech at home.  Now the Wildcats continue to lack the respect they deserve as 9-point dogs at TCU.  The Horned Frogs are getting respect because they upset Texas on the road.  But Texas trailed Texas Tech by 15 points with under 3 minutes left in regulation, so they aren’t very good.  Kansas State is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games as road dogs.  The dog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 matchups.  The Horned Frogs are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games off an upset win as a road dog.  The Wildcats are 41-20-1 ATS in their last 62 games as underdogs.  Take Kansas State.

7* Bucs/Bears NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Tampa Bay -3.5

The Key: The Tampa Bay Bucs are averaging 32.3 PPG in their last 3 games, all victories by 7 points or more.  And they have a huge edge on offense here over the hapless Bears, who can’t decide whether Nick Foles or Mitch Trubisky is the man to lead their offense.  They have a good defense, but their offense just isn’t good.  They only managed 3 points for the first 58 minutes against the Colts last week in Foles’ first start with the team.  And it’s not going to get much easier against this improved, fast Tampa Bay defense tonight.  The Bears are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games against a team with a winning record.  Their 3 wins this year came against the Lions, Giants and Falcons, three teams that are a combined 1-11.  Take Tampa Bay.

6* Tulane/Houston NCAAF *Total* Annihilator on OVER 59

The Key: Michael Pratt took over early in the 1st quarter for the terrible Keon Howard and promptly led Tulane to 66 points in a 66-24 victory over Southern Miss last time out.  It’s a big upgrade at the QB position with his dual-threat skills.  And Tulane should keep it rolling offensively against Houston this week.  The Cougars have an offensive genius as a head coach in Dana Holgorsen, and he is working with 10 returning starters on offense and a terrible defense.  There should be some offensive fireworks in this one.  These teams combined for 69 points last year and 65 points two years ago, so this one should have no problem topping the 59-point total.  The Green Wave are 11-2 OVER in their last 13 games after scoring 20 points or more at halftime in 2 straight games.  The OVER is 10-4 in Cougars last 14 conference games.  Take the OVER.

7* Falcons/Packers MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Atlanta +7

The Key: The Atlanta Falcons are desperate for a win after opening 0-3 this year.  I like backing desperate teams.  They should be 2-1 as they blew a 15-point lead against the Cowboys and a 16-point lead against the Bears both in the 4th quarter.  But since they are 0-3 we are getting a good price on them.  The Packers are 3-0 and need to be faded this week, especially since Aaron Rodgers may not have Devante Adams and Allen Lazard.  Lazard is for sure out, while Adams sat out last week and is questionable with a hamstring. The Falcons are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as underdogs.  The Falcons are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games.  This is the role they are good in.  Take Atlanta.

6* Saints/Lions NFC *CA$H COW* on Detroit +4.5

The Key: Drew Brees is just a shell of his former self.  He has lost a ton of arm strength and that has been on display this season.  They were fortunate to beat the Bucs in Week 1, then their defense got gashed in 24-34 and 30-37 losses to the Raiders and Packers.  They have impact injuries on both offense and defense.  Matthew Stafford is one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the NFL.  He guided the Lions to a gutsy 26-23 win at Arizona last week.  He did everything he could to avoid a 23-6 collapse against the Bears in Week 1 by driving the Lions down and throwing a perfect pass that was dropped in the end zone that would have been a game-winner.  And Stafford just got his favorite receiver in Kenny Golloday back from a 2-game absence last week against the Cardinals, so he now has his full compliment of weapons.  Take Detroit.

6* Sunday NFL *Total* Annihilator on Seahawks/Dolphins OVER 54

The Key: The Seahawks are 3-0 to the OVER in 2020 with combined scores of 63, 65 and 69 points.  This one should see 60-plus too.  Russell Wilson has been the MVP of the league thus far in leading the Seahawks to 37 PPG.  They have really opened up their passing game this year and let Wilson shine finally with 2 of the best weapons in the NFL in Metcalf and Lockett.  But Seattle gives up 28.7 PPG and 497.3 YPG defensively.  They have injuries all over their defense and are a far cry from the legion of boom D they had back in the day.  Ryan Fitzpatrick will keep the Dolphins in this game and match Wilson score for score.  He completed 90% of his passes against the Jaguars last week.  He put up 28 points on the Bills and 31 points on the Jaguars the last 2 weeks, and he should reach or exceed both of those numbers again here.  Seattle is 6-0 OVER when eh total is 49.5 or higher over the last 3 years.  Miami is 8-1 OVER as a home dog of 7 points or less over the last 3 years.  Miami is 12-0 OVER in its last 12 against good rush defenses that give up 70 or fewer rushing yards per game.  Take the OVER.

7* SEC Game of the Month on Vanderbilt +21

The Key: Vanderbilt showed they are going to have one of the best defenses in the SEC when they only lost 12-17 to Texas A&M as a 31.5-point dog last week.  They returned all 11 starters on D, and Pro Football Focus actually graded their D-Line as the best unit in the country after that performance.  LSU’s defense was shredded for 44 points and 623 passing yards in their upset loss to Mississippi State last week.  This is an LSU team that lost 15 players to the NFL in the offseason.  That’s simply irreplaceable.  The road team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 matchups.  The Tigers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games against a team with a losing record.  Take Vanderbilt.

6* Texas Tech/K-State Big 12 *CA$H COW* on Kansas State -2

The Key: “We better put it behind us in a. Hurry or we’re going to not be ready on Saturday,” Kansas State head coach Chris Klieman said. “What you did today is great, but it pales in comparison to what you can do the next day.  Right now, we have to move on.  That’s been our mantra for a year-plus.  Stack great days and don’t worry about yesterday, worry about today.  Let’s win this dang day.”  I love the quotes coming from Klieman leading up to this game against Texas Tech.  And I think with the veteran leadership the Wildcats have, they can avoid the dreaded letdown off their incredible upset of Oklahoma as 28-point dogs last week.  I think getting humbled in their opener by Arkansas State, losing outright as 15-point dogs will make it easier to avoid that letdown.  Texas Tech blew a 15-point lead in the final minutes and lost in OT to Texas last week.  That’s harder to recover from.  And remember Texas Tech only beat Houston Baptist 35-33 as a 40.5-point favorite in their opener.  The fact of the matter is Kansas State is the better team in this matchup, and if they just show up with their ‘B Game’ they will win and cover.  The Red Raiders are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games off a SU loss.  Texas Tech is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 road games.  The Wildcats are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 conference games.  The Wildcats are 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last 9 matchups with Texas Tech.  Take Kansas State.

6* Sun Belt *CA$H COW* on Arkansas State -3

The Key: Arkansas State has been impressive against two tough opponents this year.  They only lost by 13 on the road to Memphis and upset Kansas State as 15-point road underdogs.  Then Kansas State went on to beat Oklahoma outright as a 28-point dog last week.  And keep in mind the Red Wolves didn’t have 10 starters for that game against K-State due to Covid-19.  Now they should be back to full strength this week and blast Coastal Carolina, which has played a much easier schedule in beating Kansas and Campbell thus far.  The Red Wolves have won all 3 matchups with Coastal Carolina over the last 3 years by an average of 21 PPG.  Coastal Carolina is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 home games.  Take Arkansas State.

6* Saturday NCAAF *UPSET SPECIAL* on West Virginia ML +115

The Key: Neal Brown is in his 2nd season at West Virginia.  They only had 7 starters back last year in his first season and still managed to win 5 games, including 3 Big 12 road games, which is no small feat.  But now Brown has 14 starters back this year and this should be one of the most improved teams in the country.  Baylor is the team rebuilding with just 9 starters back for new head coach Dave Aranda.  The Bears’ 47-14 win over Kansas last week was so misleading.  They only outgained Kansas by 24 yards and managed just 352 total yards.  But they got 2 special teams touchdowns.  West Virginia played Oklahoma State much tougher than the 13-27 final score would indicate last week as well.  The Mountaineers outgained the Cowboys by 11 yards and held them to just 342 total yards.  West Virginia only lost 14-17 at Baylor as 17.5-point dogs last year.  It’s revenge time as WVU looks to improve to 5-0 SU in home matchups with Baylor since joining the Big 12.  Take West Virginia on the Money Line.

6* South Carolina/Florida SEC *CA$H COW* on South Carolina +17

The Key: This has been a very closely contested series between South Carolina and Florida through in the year.  Each of the last 7 matchups were decided by 13 points or fewer, so with this 17-point spread I like the price we are getting on the Gamecocks.  South Carolina only lost 27-31 to a very good Tennessee team last week.  Florida beat Ole Miss 51-35, but gave up 613 total yards in the process and only outgained the Rebels by 29 yards.  That’s an Ole Miss team in transition with a new head coach in Lane Kiffin.  The Gamecocks are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games as road underdogs.  The road team is 5-1-1 ATS in the last 7 matchups.  Take South Carolina.

7* Broncos/Jets AFC *Total* Annihilator on OVER 40.5

The Key: Both the New York Jets and Denver Broncos have been up against some very good defenses this season.  The Jets have faced the Bills, 49ers and Colts while the Broncos have faced the Titans, Steelers and Bucs.  This is the chance for both offenses to open things up against the worst defenses that they will have faced yet.  The Broncos give up 23.3 PPG and 380 YPG and have injuries all over their defense, most notably to Miller, Casey and Bouye.  The Jets give up 31.3 PPG and 372 YPG and have just been gashed defensively.  This is a very low total for today’s NFL and there’s definitely some value with the OVER.  Take the OVER.

7* Chiefs/Ravens MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Baltimore -3.5

The Key: The Baltimore Ravens have blown the doors off their first 2 opponents with a 38-6 win over Cleveland and a 33-16 win at Houston.  The Kansas City Chiefs also beat the Texans 34-20, but they only outgained them by 9 yards in that contest.  And the Chiefs were outgained by 65 yards last week in a fortunate 23-20 (OT) win over the Chargers in which they gave up 479 total yards to rookie QB Justin Herbert and company.  The Ravens have lost their 2 matchups with the Chiefs by a combined 8 points over the last 2 seasons. It’s revenge time here as the Ravens prove they are the best team in the AFC Monday night.  Take Baltimore.

6* Lions/Cardinals NFC *CA$H COW* on Detroit +6

The Key: Teams failing to cover by 5 PPG or more who are also 0-2 ATS have gone 57-28-1 ATS in Week 3.  Teams like the Lions are undervalued after a poor start to the season.  They blew a 23-6 lead against the Bears in Week 1 and a 14-3 lead against the Packers in Week 2.  They aren’t as bad as their 0-2 record, and the Cardinals aren’t as good as their 2-0 record, beating a poor Washington team and taking advantage of a banged-up 49ers team.  Bets on road dogs or PK who allowed 335 or more total yards per game last season, after allowing 450 yards or more last game are 24-4 ATS since 1983.  The Lions are 24-9 ATS in their last 33 road games off a loss by 14 points or more.  Take Detroit.

7* Cowboys/Seahawks NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Dallas +5

The Key: Seattle’s defense is way too poor to trust the Seahawks to be laying 5 points to the Dallas Cowboys, who have one of the best offenses in the NFL.  That was on display last week when the Cowboys racked up 40 points and 570 total yards on the Falcons.  The Seahawks give up 27.5 PPG and 485 YPG this season.  The Cowboys are 16-4 ATS in their last 20 road games after trailing at halftime by 14 points or more last game.  Take Dallas.

6* Sunday NFL *UPSET SPECIAL* on Minnesota Vikings +3

The Key: Teams failing to cover by 5 PPG or more who are also 0-2 ATS have gone 57-28-1 ATS in Week 3.  Teams like the Vikings are undervalued after a poor start to the season.  They go from being favored by nearly a FG at home against the Packers in their opener to now 3-point dogs to the Titans in Week 3, basically a 6-point adjustment.  It’s time to buy low on the Vikings, and sell high on the 2-0 Titans who have beaten 2 bad teams in the Broncos and Jaguars by a combined 5 points.  The Vikings are better than both those teams and will likely win this game outright to get back on track.  Take Minnesota.

6* NC State/VA Tech ACC *CA$H COW* on Virginia Tech -6.5

The Key: The Virginia Tech Hokies are one of the most experienced teams in the country with 18 starters back this year.  NC State went 4-8 lsat year and has 15 starters back.  But the defense is clearly atrocious after giving up 42 points to Wake Forest last week.  Virginia Tech should be able to score at will and offer a lot more resistance on D than Wake did.  NC State is 1-8 ATS when the total is 56.5 to 63 over the last 3 years.  The Wolfpack are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games as underdogs.  NC State is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games off a win.    The Wolfpack are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 road games.  The Hokies are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 conference games.  The Hokies are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 matchups.  Take Virginia Tech.

6* Vanderbilt/Texas A&M SEC *CA$H COW* on Vanderbilt +30.5

The Key: Texas A&M is getting too much love early in the season ranked as a Top 10 team off an 8-5 season.  Jimbo Fisher is doing a good job recruiting but hasn’t put it together.  No question the Aggies will be good this year, but not 30.5 points better than Vanderbilt, which returns all 11 starters on defense and should have their best stop unit of the Derek Mason era.  The Aggies didn’t beat a single SEC team by more than 24 points last year.  Vanderbilt is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 road games with a total between 45.5 and 49 points.  Such a low total definitely favors the +30.5 underdog.  Take Vanderbilt.

6* FSU/Miami ACC *CA$H COW* on Miami -11

The Key: Miami finally has its QB in Houston transfer D’Eriq King and the Hurricanes look the part thus far.  They beat UAB 31-14 in their opener, and that’s a UAB team that just beat South Alabama 42-10 on Thursday.  That’s a South Alabama team that upset Southern Miss and also nearly upset Tulane.  Then Miami beat Louisville 47-34 last week with 3 scoring plays of 47 or more yards.  This is a very explosive offense with King, and the defense has plenty of studs to shut teams down.  FSU was thoroughly outplayed in its opener, a 13-16 home loss to Georgia Tech as 13-point favorites.  The Yellow Jackets outgained them by 131 yards.  Now FSU will be without its new head coach in Mike Norvell due to Covid-19.  Miami has won three straight over FSU, including a 27-10 road win last year.  The Hurricanes are even better this season with King.  Take Miami.

7* ACC Game of the Month on Virginia -4

The Key: Virginia has 15 starters back from a team that beat Duke 48-14 last year.  Duke lost by 14 to Notre Dame and by 20 to Boston College to start the year, so it’s clear the Blue Devils aren’t any better than they were last season.  This is a very short number for the defending Coastal Division champs to be laying to open their season.  Take Virginia.

6* Mississippi State/LSU SEC *CA$H COW* on Mississippi State +17

The Key: LSU lost a record 14 players to the NFL.  You can make that 15 now with receiver Ja’Marr Chase and his 1,780 yards and 20 TD from last season deciding to sit out and get ready for the NFL.  I just can’t see LSU being on their game in the opener with all that they have lost.  I know the situation isn’t great for Mississippi State either with a new head coach in Mike Leach, but at least their an experienced team with 11 returning starters and plenty of senior leadership with 13 projected starters being seniors.  I love the addition of Stanford transfer KJ Kostello at QB to run Leach’s Air Raid system.  This number just feels a bit too wide with all that LSU lost.  Take Mississippi State.

7* Dolphins/Jaguars AFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Miami +3

The Key: The Miami Dolphins hung 28 points on the Buffalo Bills last week and gave them everything they could handle.  They also hung tough with the New England Patriots on the road.  They are going to be able to score at will on this awful Jaguars defense that gave up 33 points to the Titans last week and that is giving up 400 YPG this year.  The Dolphins are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games off a SU loss.  The Jaguars are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as favorites.  Bets on road dogs who gave up 335 or more YPG last year after allowing 450 or more yards in their previous game are 24-4 ATS since 1983.  Take Miami.