Sports Picks & Predictions

7* Pats/Bills AFC *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 45 

The Key: The Bills have the worst offense in the NFL.  They are averaging just 11.6 PPG and 234 YPG.  And their offense has been even worse without Josh Allen.  Derek Anderson came out of retirement to quarterback the team.  It didn’t go well last week as the Bills managed just 5 points against the Colts.  But the Bills do have a solid defense as they are only giving up 321 YPG this season, which is one of the best marks in the league.  And they can slow down the Patriots enough to keep this total UNDER the number.  Bets on the UNDER on road teams when the total is 42.5 to 49 points in conference games, off a road win where they scored 31 or more points are 24-5 since 1983.  Bets on the UNDER on road teams after going over the total by more than 14 points in consecutive games, after the first month of the season are 35-10 over the last 10 seasons.  Take the UNDER.

6* Broncos/Chiefs AFC West *CA$H COW* on UNDER 54 

The Key: The Broncos and Chiefs are meeting for a 2nd time in the month of October already today.  They combined for 50 points in their first meeting.  And I like the price on this UNDER 54 in the rematch Sunday.  Familiarity favors defense and I think both of these defenses will be up to the task today.  Denver is 13-3 UNDER vs. teams who give up 24 or more points per game over the last 3 seasons.  The UNDER is 47-20 in Chiefs last 67 home games.  Take the UNDER. 

6* Jets/Bears Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on OVER 41 

The Key: I know there’s rain in the forecast in Chicago today.  However, this total has been bet down from 46 to 41 because of it, and now I like the price on the OVER.  Both of these offenses are better than they get credit for, and both defenses aren’t as good as they get credit for.  The Bears are scoring 28.3 PPG behind an improved offense under head coach Matt Nagy.  The Jets are scoring 26 PPG under QB Sam Darnold, who may wind up winning Rookie of the Year honors.  The OVER is 4-0 in Jets last 4 games overall.  Take the OVER. 

7* NFL Total of the Week on Ravens/Panthers UNDER 44.5 

The Key: The Ravens lead the NFL in scoring defense and total defense this season.  It’s no wonder they have gone UNDER the total in 5 straight games with 41 or fewer combined points in 4 of those.  And I like the price we are getting with the UNDER 44.5 on them here Sunday against another defensive minded team in the Carolina Panthers.  Take the UNDER. 

7* Pac-12 Game of the Year on California +12 

The Key: The Cal Golden Bears finally snapped out of their funk with a 49-7 beat down of Oregon State.  That result was more indicative of the potential of this team than the three consecutive losses that preceded it.  The Golden Bears gave away those three games by committing a combined 14 turnovers in them, which is almost unheard of.  They only gave the ball away once against Oregon State and amassed 539 total yards.  They can play with Washington if they don’t turn the ball over, and likely beat them.  The Huskies are just 2-6 ATS in their 8 games this season and have been overrated all season.  They should not be double-digit road favorites over the Bears this weekend.  Cal is 7-0 ATS off a game where they committed one or fewer turnovers over the last 2 seasons.  Take Cal. 

6* Iowa/Penn State Big Ten *CA$H COW* on Iowa +5.5 

The Key: Iowa has opened 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS this season.  The Hawkeyes have been one of the most underrated teams in college football.  And they really should be 7-0.  They led Wisconsin in the final minutes, and that was even after they committed two special teams mistakes that led to Badgers touchdowns.  This team is the real deal and they will prove it by beating Penn State on the road Saturday.  The Nittany Lions had their dreams crushed with back-to-back home losses to Ohio State and Michigan State.  And then last week they were lucky to win 33-28 at Indiana as 14-point favorites because they were outgained by 137 yards and gave up 554 yards to the Hoosiers.  Iowa is one of the best teams in the country at stopping the run, giving up 80 RYPG and 2.7 YPC.  That bodes well for them being able to stop a Penn State rushing attack that is averaging 241 RYPG and 5.9 YPC.  Kirk Ferentz is 27-5 ATS vs. excellent rushing teams that average 5.25 YPC or more as the coach of the Hawkeyes.  Take Iowa. 

6* Saturday NCAAF *Upset Special* on Arizona State +3.5 

The Key: USC suffered its third loss of the season last week in a 28-41 setback at Utah.  That was a much worse loss than the final score showed as the Trojans were outgained by 336 yards.  I think the air has been lifted out from underneath their sails now.  They have no chance to win the Pac-12 and little to play for the rest of the way.  Arizona State is a team that will keep battling under first-year head coach Herm Edwards.  The Sun Devils sit at just 3-4 this season, but all 4 losses came by 7 points or less, so they’ve had a chance to win every game.  They are much better than their record suggests.  And they’ve had extra rest after playing last Thursday in a 13-20 home loss to Stanford in a game they should have won as they outgained the Cardinal by 79 yards.  Look for them to come back with a chip on their shoulder this week, rested and ready to go.  The Sun Devils are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a loss.  The Trojans are 5-16-1 ATS in their last 22 games overall.  USC is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games following an ATS loss.  The Trojans are 0-6 ATS off 3 straight conference games over the last 2 seasons.  Take Arizona State. 

7* Wyoming/Colorado State NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Colorado State -1.5 

The Key: I love the price we are getting on Colorado State as less than a field goal home favorite over Wyoming Friday night.  The Rams still have something to play for at 3-5 as they need to win 3 of their final 4 games to make a bowl.  And this one is their most winnable, so they should handle their business.  The Rams have a full week to get ready for this game after playing last Friday.  Their offense put up 489 total yards against Boise State in what was a misleading 28-56 loss.  The Broncos got 2 special teams touchdowns and the Rams outgained them by 17 yards.  Collin Hill took over for Carta-Samuels at QB midway through the game and finished 12-of-14 for 135 yards and a touchdown.  Hill is expected to get the start this week and is an upgrade over Carta-Samuels.  Wyoming is just 2-6 with very little to play for at this point.  It is coming off 4 consecutive losses, and its two wins this season have come against Wofford (17-14) and New Mexico State.  The Cowboys have been atrocious on offense in averaging just 15.5 PPG and 289 YPG this season.  I’m not sure how they are going to keep up with this potent Colorado State offense.  The Cowboys are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall.  Wyoming is 8-20 ATS in its last 28 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  Take Colorado State. 

6* Dolphins/Texans AFC *Total* Annihilator on OVER 44 

The Key: The Texans are primed for an offensive explosion tonight.  They have played one of the toughest schedule in terms of opposing defenses this season.  But they went off for 37 points against the Colts a few weeks back, and they should go off again against a Miami defense that yields 25.3 PPG and 405 YPG this season.  But the Dolphins have been able to put up some points on offense, even the last two weeks with Brock Osweiler at quarterback.  They scored 31 against Chicago and 21 against Detroit.  They even had over 500 total yards against a good Bears defense.  They should help contribute to this OVER as well.  The Dolphins are 7-0 OVER after allowing 25 points or more in 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons.  The Dolphins are 8-1 OVER off a non-conference game over the last 3 years.  The Texans are 16-5 OVER in their last 21 games off 3 or more consecutive unders.  I think the price is right to back the OVER tonight.  Take the OVER. 

7* Georgia Tech/Virginia Tech ACC *HEAVY HITTER* on Virginia Tech -3 

The Key: I love the situation for the Hokies tonight.  Both them and Georgia Tech are coming off bye weeks, and that clearly favors the Hokies.  Any time a team has extra time to prepare for the triple-option I’m looking to back that team because it’s so critical to get that extra prep time.  Whether it be off a bye or for a bowl game, it’s a huge advantage.  And defensive coordinator Bud Foster will be extra hungry after losing to Georgia Tech each of the last two seasons.  The Yellow Jackets are 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.  Georgia Tech is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games overall.  The Hokies are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 home games.  The Hokies are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a bye week.  Take Virginia Tech. 

7* Troy/South Alabama Sun Belt *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 54.5 

The Key: The Troy Trojans lost starting QB Kaleb Barker to a torn ACL two games ago.  Backup Sawyer Smith started against Liberty and the Trojans lost a defensive battle, 16-22.  This should be another defensive battle here against South Alabama if the recent series history is any indication.  The UNDER is 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings with combined scores of 27 (2017), 49 (2016), 42 (2015) and 40 (2014) points.  I’m shocked to see this total sitting at 54.5 given the series history plus Troy’s QB situation.  Take the UNDER. 

7* Giants/Falcons NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on New York +4.5 

The Key: The Falcons haven’t been covering this season because they can’t play defense.  They are 2-4 ATS, but their two covers came by 2 points over the Falcons and by 2 points over the Bucs.  That Bucs win last week needed a 57-yard field goal from Matt Bryant in the closing seconds to cover the 3-point spread in a 5-point win.  And Bryant hurt his hamstring on the kick and will miss this game.  As far as kickers go, Bryant is one of the most valuable in the league.  And his role is even larger in recent seasons with all of the red zone struggles by the Falcons.  But the biggest reason I’m fading the Falcons this week is their defense.  They are giving up 32 PPG and 418 YPG this season.  They are missing 3 defensive starters due to injury and haven’t been able to replace them.  The Giants have extra time to prepare after playing last Thursday.  The Giants are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 games following a Thursday game.  The Giants are also 13-2 ATS in their last 15 games after allowing 17 points or more in the first half of 2 straight games.  Take New York. 

6* Bengals/Chiefs Sunday Night *BAILOUT* on Kansas City -6 

The Key: The Chiefs have played 4 of their first 6 games on the road this season, yet they’ve gone 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS.  Oddsmakers just can’t seem to price them right.  Their only loss was 40-43 to New England on the road last week.  They should get right here against the Bengals.  The Chiefs are 2-0 at home this season and an 11-point win over the 49ers and a 16-point win over the Jaguars.  The Chiefs are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  Take Kansas City. 

6* NFL Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Detroit Lions -3 

The Key: This is a great situation for the Detroit Lions Sunday.  They are coming off their bye and feeling good after beating the Packers 31-23 going into their bye.  They have gotten healthy and have been an underrated team, going 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.  They can get back to .500 on the season with a win here Sunday and will be hungry to do so.  The Dolphins are getting too much respect from oddsmakers due to their 4-2 start this season.  But they’ve been winning with smoke and mirrors as all four wins were one-score games, and they came against the Titans, Jets, Raiders and Bears.  They stepped up in class and lost to the Patriots 7-38 and to the Bengals 17-27.  The Lions crushed the Patriots earlier this season.  Brock Osweiler will get the start against Sunday, and I’ll gladly fade him knowing that it’s unlikely he puts two good games in a row together.  Matt Patricia will make life tough on Osweiler with two weeks to get ready to face him.  The Lions are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a bye week. The Dolphins are 17-45-3 ATS in their last 65 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Take Detroit. 

7* Titans/Chargers London *Early Riser* on Los Angeles -6.5 

The Key: The Chargers are hitting on all cylinders right now.  They are 4-2 on the season with their only two losses coming to the Rams and Chiefs, who are the two best teams in the NFL to this point.  They crushed the Raiders by 16 at home before an even more impressive 38-14 road win over the Browns in their last two games.  They should have another blowout victory over the Titans here.  The Titans lost 21-0 last week to the Ravens and just have no semblance of an offense whatsoever.  They rank near the bottom of the NFL at 14.5 PPG and 263 YPG on offense.  Philip Rivers and company are scoring 29.2 PPG with 412 YPG on offense.  I just don’t see how the Titans can hang with Rivers and company here.  The Chargers are 29-4 ATS in their last 33 vs. AFC South teams.  The Titans are 17-42-4 ATS in their last 63 vs. AFC teams.  Take Los Angeles. 

6* USC/Utah Pac-12 *BAILOUT* on OVER 48 

The Key: Both USC and Utah have come alive offensively.  Utah scored 40 against Stanford and 42 against Arizona in its last two games.  USC scored 39 against Washington State, 24 against Arizona and 31 against Colorado in its last three games.  I think this is a very low total given how well both offenses are clicking right now.  They’ve combined for 58 and 55 in their last two meetings.  USC is 7-0 OVER in its last 7 road games off 2 conescutive games where they committed 3 or more turnovers.  Utah is 8-0 OVER in its last 8 home games after gaining 6.25 or more yards per play in 2 consecutive games.  Take the OVER. 

6* Alabama/Tennessee SEC *CA$H COW* on Tennessee +29 

The Key: The Tennessee Vols are improving rapidly under first-year head coach Jeremy Pruitt, who was the defensive coordinator at Alabama before coming here.  And Pruitt knows Alabama’s personnel and most of its playbook, which would be a big advantage for the Vols.  The Vols are coming off a 30-24 upset road win over Auburn as 15.5-point favorites.  They covered against Georgia the previous week as 31-point road underdogs, and now they should cover as 28.5-point home dogs to Alabama.  Tennessee has never been this big of a home underdog at least dating back to 1980.  There’s some value here with the Vols.  Take Tennessee. 

6* Conference USA Play of the Day on UTEP +23.5 

The Key: I like the spot for this improving UTEP squad Saturday.  They are coming off a bye and have to be gleaming with confidence after a 24-27 home loss to North Texas as 24.5-point dogs last time out.  North Texas is one of the best teams in Conference USA, so that was an impressive performance.  They only lost by 24 at Tennessee as 33.5-point dogs earlier this season, and have only lost by more than 24 points once this season.  But because they are 0-6 they aren’t getting any respect from oddsmakers.  LA Tech is getting too much respect for its 31-3 win at UTSA last week.  That followed up a 7-28 home loss to UAB.  The last 3 meetings in this series were decided by 21, 21 and 2 points, and the Miners were massive underdogs in all 3 games.  They are once again massive dogs here and showing good value.  Take UTEP. 

6* Oklahoma/TCU Big 12 *CA$H COW* on TCU +8 

The Key: TCU is going to be in a sour mood with Oklahoma coming to town Saturday.  They have lost 3 of their last 4 games, but the losses to Ohio State and Texas weren’t bad.  Their loss to Texas Tech was.  And Gary Patterson should have his team ready to go this week to make amends.  The Horned Frogs also want revenge from 2 losses to the Sooners last year, including in the Big 12 title game.  Oklahoma is just 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games and has been an overvalued commodity.  Patterson is 10-2 ATS after having lost 3 of their last 4 games as the coach of TCU.  Lincoln Riley is 0-6 ATS when the total is between 56.5 and 63 as the coach of Oklahoma.  Take TCU. 

7* SEC Game of the Week on Ole Miss +4 

The Key: I think Auburn has thrown in the towel already.  The Tigers had SEC title aspirations coming into the season, but now they’ve lost 3 games already.  And they just aren’t that good.  They are coming off an ugly 24-30 home loss to Tennessee as 15.5-point favorites.  And I question their motivation now with 3 losses.  Ole Miss is feeling good with a 5-2 start with its only losses coming to LSU and Alabama, two of the best teams in the country.  They got a big 37-33 comeback road win at Arkansas last week.  The Tigers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Ole Miss. 

7* Colorado State/Boise State NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Colorado State +24 

The Key: Colorado State has played Boise State tough the last 2 years.  The Rams only lost by 5 as 28-point road underdogs in 2016 . And last year they lost by 7 in overtime as 6.5-point home dogs.  They led by 14 late in that game and it took a miracle for Boise State to win.  So the Rams will be out for revenge for sure.  And they are catching a whopping 24 points in this year’s meeting.  I just think Boise State is overrated right now.  They lost to San Diego State outright and barely beat Nevada in their last two games.  The Broncos are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 home games.  The Rams are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Take Colorado State. 

6* Stanford/ASU Pac-12 *CA$H COW* on Stanford -2.5 

The Key: Stanford really needed the bye week to get Bryce Love healthy and recover from a grueling 3-week stretch.  They played Oregon, Notre Dame and Utah in consecutive weeks coming into their bye.  They looked worn down by the time they lost 21-40 to Utah.  Now they can regroup, and I trust David Shaw as one of the best head coaches in the country to get his team ready to go this week against Arizona State.  The Sun Devils have not fared well when they’ve stepped up in class this year, losing to San Diego State, Washington and Colorado.  They did beat Michigan State 16-13, but scored 10 unanswered points in the 4th quarter and were fortunate to win that contest.  The Cardinal are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games following a loss.  The Cardinal are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 against good offensive teams that average 5.9 or more yards per play.  Take Stanford. 

7* Broncos/Cardinals NFL *HEAVY HITTER* on Denver -1 

The Key: We’re getting the better team here in the Broncos where they just have to win the game to cover the spread.  I’ll take it.  The Broncos need a win here after 4 straight losses against a tough schedule where they were underdogs in all 4 games.  But here they’re back to a favorite against the worst team in the NFL in the Arizona Cardinals.  It’s a Cardinals team that is putting up just 13.7 PPG and 220 YPG this season on offense.  You can’t win in today’s NFL with that kind of offense.  And now the Cardinals will be down two starting offensive linemen in Justin Push and Mike Iupati.  That doesn’t bode well for them against this dominant Denver defensive line.  The Broncos are moving the ball just fine averaging 388 YPG and 6.2 YPP.  The Broncos have won 8 of their last 9 meetings with the Cardinals for an 89% success rate.  Take Denver. 

7* 49ers/Packers NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Green Bay -9 

The Key: The Packers are 2-0-1 at home this season.  The last time they were at home they blew out the Bills 22-0.  And they’ll be hungry for a victory today after giving the game away against Detroit last week in a 23-31 road loss.  They outgained the Lions by 257 yards in that game a week after outgaining the Bills by 276 yards.  But they missed out on 10 possible points from kicker Mason Crosby and lost he turnover battle 3-0.  The 49ers just lost by 10 at home to the lowly Cardinals of all teams last week.  The 49ers are now 1-12 in games in which Jimmy G doesn’t start over the last 2 seasons, and most of those losses can be attributed to the inept CJ Beathard.  It doesn’t help that the 49ers have all kinds of injuries at receiver and along the offensive line as well.  I don’t expect them to be able to stay within double-digits of the Packers tonight.  The Packers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The 49ers are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 October games.  The Packers are 19-9-1 ATS in their last 29 October games.  The Packers are 11-4-2 ATS in the last 17 meetings, including 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 home meetings with the 49ers.  Take Green Bay. 

6* Rams/Broncos Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on UNDER 51.5 

The Key: Weather reports in Denver are calling for snow and below 30 degree temperatures today.  I think we see a heavy dose of Todd Gurley and the Broncos running back by committee in this one.  Don’t expect Jared Goff and Case Keenum to be asked to do too much in these conditions.  Denver is 11-2 UNDER in its last 13 games after allowing 25 points or more in 3 straight games coming in.  The UNDER is 9-3 in Rams lsat 12 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  Take the UNDER. 

6* Bucs/Falcons NFC South *CA$H COW* on OVER 57 

The Key: It’s well documented that the Falcons have the worst injuries on defense of any team in the NFL this season.  They are without 4 starters right now in Keanu Neal, Deion Jones, Grady Jarrett and Ricardo Allen.  Those are arguably their 4 best players on defense, too.  So it’s no surprise they are playing in shootouts week after week.  The OVER is 4-0 in Falcons last 4 games overall with combined scores of 55, 80, 73 and 58 points.  Their defense has allowed 43, 37 and 41 points the last 3 weeks.  Now we’re seeing a total of 57, which would normally be high for most teams, but not the Falcons.  They have an elite offense that has scored 31 or more points 3 of the last 4 weeks.  And they’re up against a Bucs defense that is allowing 34.7 PPG and 446 YPG this season.  The Bucs have been great on offense though, putting up 28 PPG and 433 YPG.  And now Jameis Winston is ready to lead the offense off a bye.  The Bucs and Falcons have combined for 54 or more points in 3 of their last 4 meetings.  Atlanta is 10-1 OVER in its last 11 home games with a total of 49.5 or higher.  Take the OVER. 

7* AFC North Game of the Year on Pittsburgh Steelers +2 

The Key: Big Ben and the Steelers own the Bengals and should not be underdogs in this AFC North battle.  Especially not since they need the win more trailing the Bengals by 1.5 games right now.  The Steelers have won 6 straight meetings with the Bengals.  They are 8-1 in their last 9 trips to Cincinnati as well.  And Big Ben is 25-4-1 in the state of Ohio in his career.  The Bengals just don’t match up well with the Steelers at all, and they are very fortunate to be 4-1 this season.  They get a dose of reality Sunday.  Take Pittsburgh. 

6* Ole Miss/Arkansas SEC *CA$H COW* on Arkansas +7 

The Key: Ole Miss has been embarrassed when stepping up in class.  They lost 7-62 at home to Alabama and 16-45 at LSU for their two losses this season.  Arkansas played Alabama last week and only lost 31-65, actually gaining over 400 yards on that Alabama defense.  Ole Miss was held to just 248 yards against Alabama.  Arkansas has an improved defense that held Auburn to 225 total yards three weeks ago and Texas A&M to 24 points and 377 total yards two weeks ago.  No question the Razorbacks are battle-tested now and won’t be phased by this Ole Miss offense.  And the Razorbacks are primed for their biggest offensive output of the season against an Ole Miss defense that has been shredded for 35.5 PPG and 504 YPG this season.  The Rebels should not be TD road favorites here Saturday with that leaky of a defense.  Ole Miss is 0-6 ATS off a home win over the last 2 seasons.  Arkansas is 21-8 ATS in its last 29 games following 3 or more consecutive losses.  The Rebels are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a win by more than 20 points.  The Razorbacks are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home meetings with the Rebels, and 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings overall.  The underdog is 7-0 ATS in the last 7 meetings.  Take Arkansas. 

6* Michigan State/Penn State Big Ten *CA$H COW* on Michigan State +13.5 

The Key: This is the preferred role when backing the Michigan State Spartans.  Not the role they’ve been in the last few weeks as double-digit favorites as they’ve failed to live up to expectations.  But the underdog role where Mark Dantonio thrives.  Penn State is reeling from the loss to Ohio State and could suffer a hangover, similar to last year when they were upset in East Lansing by the Spartans.  Penn State is 0-7 ATS in its last 7 home games off a home loss to a conference opponent.  The Nittany Lions are 1-10-2 ATS in their last 13 games following a SU loss.  The Spartans are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.  Take Michigan State.

6* UCF/Memphis AAC *CA$H COW* on Memphis +5 

The Key: UCF has benefited from playing one of the easiest schedules in the country.  Their 5 wins have come against UConn, South Carolina State, FAU, Pitt and SMU with 4 of those games at home.  They haven’t been on the road since August 30th against UConn.  This will easily be their toughest game of the season here at Memphis, which is 4-0 at home this season and winning by 36.8 PPG on average.  The Tigers want revenge from their 62-55 (OT) loss to UCF in the AAC title game last year.  Memphis is 8-0 ATS in its last 8 home games vs. teams who outscore their opponents by 17-plus PPG.  The Tigers have one of the best home-field advantages in the country, and it will be a great atmosphere Saturday with nationally ranked UCF coming to town.  Take Memphis. 

6* Oklahoma State/K-State Big 12 *CA$H COW* on Kansas State +7 

The Key: Both Kansas State and Oklahoma State are having down seasons.  Kansas State is 2-4 and in need of a victory after losing 3 straight.  They lost by 5 at home to Texas and by 3 at Baylor the last 2 weeks.  They are clearly hungry for a win and I think they have a good shot to get one Saturday at home against the Cowboys.  Oklahoma State has lost by 24 at home to Texas Tech and by 6 at home to Iowa State in two of the last three weeks with a 20-point win at Kansas in between.  And this has really been a tight series in recent meetings.  4 of the lsat 5 meetings have been decided by 6 points or less.  Oklahoma State hasn’t beaten Kansas State by more than 7 points in any of the last 7 meetings.  That’s a 7-0 angle backing the Wildcats.  Take Kansas State. 

7* SEC Game of the Month on Florida -7 

The Key: Many would expect Florida to have a letdown after their big 27-19 win over LSU last week.  However, the Gators have a bye on deck next week, so that kind of trumps that theory.  They will be laying it all on the line to get a win here against Vanderbilt knowing that they have next week off.  Florida is 25-1 SU in its last 26 meetings with Vanderbilt, including 13-0 in its last 13 trips to Vanderbilt.  The Commodores have been awful in their last 3 games.  They lost 14-37 at home to South Carolina, barely beat Tennessee State 31-27 as 28.5-point home favorites, and lost 13-41 at Georgia.  They have come back down to reality after a fast start to the season against weak competition.  The Gators have gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games with wins by 38 over Colorado State, by 26 at Tennessee, by 7 at Mississippi State and by 8 at home over LSU.  They continue rolling Saturday.  Take Florida. 

7* Arizona/Utah NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Arizona +14 

The Key: Utah is getting too much respect from its 40-21 win at Stanford last week.  The Cardinal were gassed in that game as they were playing a 3rd straight tough game after facing Oregon and Notre Dame the previous two weeks.  The Utes took advantage.  But now they’ll laying two touchdowns to the Arizona Wildcats, who have won 3 of their last 4 coming in with their only loss coming 20-24 to USC.  Seven of the last eight meetings between Utah and Arizona have been decided by 14 points or fewer.  The Wildcats can hang here, especially since the Utes have an underwhelming offense that makes it tough for them to win by a margin.  Take Arizona. 

7* PHI/NY NFC East Game of the Month on New York +3 

The Key: Despite being 1-4, the Giants are actually just one game out of first place in the NFC East.  It’s been a bad division and the Giants at least still feel like they’re in it.  So they won’t be giving up on their season any time soon.  And they showed a lot of heart by coming back from 17-3 down to actually take a lead in Carolina on Sunday.  But they lost 31-33 on a 63-yard field goal.  The Giants will be hungry to beat the defending Super Bowl champion Eagles tonight.  The Eagles are getting everyone’s best shot, and they aren’t handling it too well.  They are just 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games with their only win coming 20-16 over the Colts.  They are two goal-line stands away from being 0-5.  They have injuries everywhere, especially on offense that are holding them back.  And the Super Bowl hangover just appears to be real with this squad.  They should not be 3-point road favorites over the Giants this week.  Thursday NFL home teams are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS this season.  It’s a huge advantage to play at home on a short week.  The Giants are 6-0 ATS after gaining 75 or fewer rushing yards in two straight games over the last three seasons.  Take New York. 

6* Texas Tech/TCU Big 12 *CA$H COW* on TCU -7 

The Key: TCU has won 3 of its last 4 meetings with Texas Tech, including last year’s 27-3 victory as 6.5-point road favorites.  Now they are only 7-point home favorites this time around.  And TCU’s only two losses this season have come on a neutral to Ohio State and on the road to Texas, two of the best teams in the country.  Texas Tech lost by 8 at home to West Virginia and by 20 on a neutral to Ole Miss.  I believe TCU is the best team that they’ve faced yet.  And the Red Raiders have quarterback injury problems right now with both Bowman (lung) and Carter (ankle) highly questionable tonight.  They could be down to their third-stringer.  Either way, TCU has one of the best defenses in the country and will shut them down just as they did last year.  Gary Patterson is 14-3 ATS in home games off a bye week as the coach of TCU.  Take TCU. 

7* Sun Belt Game of the Month on Arkansas State +10.5 

The Key: This spread has gotten out of control with Appalachian State laying double-digits on the road against a Sun Belt power in Arkansas State that has won 5 titles in the past 6 seasons.  This one is all about strength of schedule for me.  App State has played a very weak schedule with three cupcakes and only one tough game at Penn State, which was back in Week 1.  Arkansas State has played 4 games already against solid programs in Alabama, Tulsa, UNLV and Georgia Southern.  I expect the Red Wolves to play the underdog card up tonight and be extra hungry for a victory.  They are 1-4 ATS this season and undervalued because of it, while App State is 4-0 ATS and overvalued.  This is simply too many points tonight.  Take Arkansas State. 

7* Redskins/Saints NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Washington +6 

The Key: The Redskins have put up the kind of numbers this season that should make you think twice about them.  Most write them off as just a mediocre team.  But the numbers say otherwise.  They are averaging 383 yards per game on offense while giving up a mere 278 yards per game on defense.  They are gaining 5.9 yards per play on offense and giving up 4.9 yards per play on defense.  You won’t find many teams that can claim having anything close to that good of numbers thus far.  And now the Redskins are fresh because they had a bye last week.  The Saints lost outright to the Bucs at home and beat the Browns by a field goal in their two home games this season.  I can’t see them winning this game by a touchdown or more against the Redskins, who are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 meetings with the Saints.  Take Washington. 

6* Jaguars/Chiefs AFC *CA$H COW* on Kansas City -3 

The Key: The Kansas City Chiefs are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS this season.  Oddsmakers just haven’t caught up with how good they are.  And now as only 3-point home favorites over the Jaguars Sunday, I still don’t think they have adjusted enough.  This is strength vs. strength.  And the last 6 times the leagues No. 1 offense has faced the No. 1 defense, the offense has won 5 times in the regular season.  I’ll take the Chiefs’ offense over this Jacksonville defense, which has faced an awful slate of opposing offenses to this point.  The Jaguars are 4-17 ATS in their last 21 games after allowing 200 or fewer total yards in their previous game.  The Chiefs are 6-0 ATS in their last six games against excellent passing offenses that average 260 or more passing yards per game.  Bets on teams who are coming off 2 consecutive games where they committed no turnovers against an opponent that is coming off a game with a turnover margin of -3 or worse are 24-5 ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Take Kansas City. 

6* Packers/Lions NFC *CA$H COW* on Detroit +1 

The Key: The Green Bay Packers have some serious injuries right now at wide receiver.  There’s no way they should be favored on the road over the Lions with these injuries.  Devante Adams, Geronimo Allison and Randall Cobb are all questionable to play this week for the Packers.  Aaron Rodgers could be short on weapons.  The Lions are actually 5-4 SU in their last 9 meetings with the Packers so they have figured them out.  And this is a huge game for the Lions after a 1-3 start as they need a win to save their season.  The beat the Patriots 26-10 at home in Week 3 to show that they can come up big in big games.  And they were beating Dallas on the road last week until the last few seconds.  Bets against road teams with a line of +3 to -3 after allowing 6 points or less last game against opponent that’s off a loss by 3 points or less are 26-6 ATS since 1983.  Take Detroit. 

7* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month on Pittsburgh Steelers -3 

The Key: The Falcons and Steelers are two similar teams in that they both have great offenses and suspect defenses.  But the Steelers can get stops, and I’m not sure the Falcons can due to all their injuries right now.  The Falcons are without 4 starters in D in S Keanu Neal, LB Deion Jones, S Ricardo Allen and DT Grady Jarrett.  Top pass rusher Vic Beasley is also questionable with an ankle injury.  The Falcons have given up 43 points to the Saints and 37 to the Bengals in consecutive weeks.  Ben Roethlisberger and company should have their way with this Atlanta defense too.  Pittsburgh is 15-3 ATS in its last 18 home games off an upset loss to a division foe as a favorite.  It is coming back to win by 9.7 points per game in this situation.  Take Pittsburgh. 

6* Conference USA Game of the Day on UAB +9.5 

The Key: This is a very difficult situation for Louisiana Tech.  The Bulldogs are coming off their two biggest games of the season over the last two weeks.  They only trailed 24-21 at LSU before eventually losing 21-38.  And then last week they upset North Texas 29-27 as 7.5-point road underdogs.  The Mean Green missed two fourth quarter field goals to aid their cause.  Now this is clearly a letdown spot for the Bulldogs, and they are starting to get a lot of respect from oddsmakers as 9.5-point favorites against a good UAB team.  This is a UAB squad that is 3-1 this season and coming off a dominant 28-7 win over Charlotte, which followed up an upset win over Tulane.  UAB beat LA Tech 23-22 as 9.5-point home underdogs last year.  They have 16 starters back from that squad and continue to be underrated here.  The Blazers are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 conference games.  The Blazers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.  Take UAB. 

6* AAC Game of the Day on SMU +24.5 

The Key: Bettors are starting to have to pay a tax to back UCF.  The Knights are 17-0 dating back to last season and have been covering machines.  Now they’re 24.5-point home favorites over SMU this week.  SMU has 14 starters back from a team that only lost 24-31 at home to UCF as 14.5-point dogs last year.  SMU has picked up back-to-back nice wins against Navy 31-30 and Houston Baptist 63-27.  They also only lost by 25 at Michigan as 36.5-point underdogs, and hung tough with TCU for a half.  They are capable of hanging with UCF enough to stay within this 24.5-point spread today.  Sonny Dykes is 11-2 ATS in road games off 2 or more consecutive wins as a head coach.  Take SMU. 

6* MAC Game of the Day on Kent State +12 

The Key: Both Kent State and Ohio have a common opponent in Howard.  Kent State beat Howard 54-14 as 9-point home favorites and outgained them by 241 yards.  Ohio only beat Howard 38-32 as 30.5-point home favorites and was outgained by 220 yards in that contest.  And somehow Ohio State is laying double-digits on the road to Kent State? Give me a break.  The Golden Flashes have a vastly improved offense this season.  They should be able to torch an Ohio defense that is yielding 38.2 points and 518 yards per game this season.  Frank Solich is 2-12 ATS after scoring 50 points or more last game in all games he has coached.  Take Kent State. 

7* Big 12 Game of the Month on Iowa State +9.5 

The Key: Iowa State is battle-tested already having played Oklahoma, Iowa and TCU with two of those games on the road.  And yet they still haven’t lost by more than 10 points in any game, being competitive in all of them.  Oklahoma State will be the fourth-best team they have faced yet.  And I would argue that Iowa State is probably the best team that Oklahoma State has played.  And the Cowboys lost 17-41 at home to Texas Tech as 14.5-point favorites, so they are beatable.  And the Cyclones want revenge from some close calls recently against the Cowboys.  They have lost 5 straight to Oklahoma State, including the last three all by 7 points or less.  I expect this one to go down to the wire as well, so the price is right to back the Cyclones here catching nearly double-digits.  The Cyclones are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 road games.  The Cyclones are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 vs. a team with a winning record.  Iowa State is 10-1 ATS vs. poor pass defenses that allow 58% competitions or more over the last 3 seasons.  Take Iowa State. 

6* Big Ten Game of the Day on Northwestern +10 

The Key: I believe Northwestern to be undervalued right now due to a 1-3 start and in the midst of a 3-game losing streak.  After beating Purdue in their opener, they were upset by both Duke and Akron, but they outgained Duke by 80 yards and Akron by 124.  And last week they nearly upset Michigan in a 17-20 home loss.  I like the price we are getting with the Wildcats, who should not be 10-point underdogs to an overrated Michigan State team.  The Spartans barely beat Utah State 38-31 as 23.5-point home favorites in their opener.  And they only won 31-20 over Central Michigan as 27.5-point home favorites last week.  If those two teams can hang with the Spartans, Northwestern can as well.  Northwestern is actually 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last 4 meetings with Michigan State despite being the underdog in all 4 contests.  The Wildcats are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games.  The Wildcats are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 conference games.  The Wildcats are a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 trips to Michigan State.  Take Northwestern. 

7* Utah State/BYU NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Utah State +2 

The Key: Utah State has gone on to prove that its narrow 31-38 loss to Michigan State as 23.5-point underdogs in the opener was no fluke.  They have since gone 3-0 with a 60-13 win over New Mexico State, a 73-12 win over Tennessee Tech and a 42-32 win over Air Force.  And now the Aggies are in the perfect spot having a bye since that Air Force win to get ready for BYU.  Meanwhile, BYU has played a brutal schedule to start and has had no time off.  They’ve played Arizona, Cal, Wisconsin, and Washington.  It looked like they ran out of gas last week against Washington, losing 7-35 while getting outgained by 270 yards.  I don’t think they’ll have much left in the tank here Friday on this short week against a rested Utah State squad.  The Aggies are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after gaining 450 or more total yards in their previous game.  The Aggies are 17-6-1 ATS in their last 24 Friday games.  The Cougars are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 home games.  The Cougars are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 Friday games.  BYU is 4-15 ATS in its last 19 home games vs. teams who average 450 or more yards per game on offense.  Take Utah State. 

7* Colts/Patriots AFC *HEAVY HITTER* on New England -10 

The Key: This is such a tough spot for the Colts.  They are on a short week and coming off an overtime game against the Texans.  And they now have to travel to New England.  Home teams have dominated Thursday games for the last several years because it’s such an advantage for them.  And add in the fact that the Colts have a massive injury report and I just don’t see them even being competitive tonight.  The Patriots are 7-0 in their last 7 meetings with the Colts.  They have won the last 5 meetings by an average of 24.6 PPG.  Enough said.  Take New England. 

6* Tulsa/Houston AAC *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 70.5 

The Key: There’s value with the UNDER tonight when you look at the series history between these teams.  The last 7 meetings between Tulsa and Houston have all seen 69 or fewer combined points.  They’ve averaged 60.6 combined PPG in those 7 meetings.  And I think we are getting about 10 points of value on this UNDER tonight.  Both Houston and Tulsa have better defenses than they get credit for.  And Tulsa’s offense is way down this season.  Tulsa is 7-0 UNDER vs. good offensive teams that average 5.9 YPP or more over the last 2 seasons.  Take the UNDER. 

7* Chiefs/Broncos AFC West *Total* Annihilator on OVER 54 

The Key: The Chiefs have been unstoppable on offense thus far.  They are scoring 39.3 PPG and averaging 398 YPG.  Patrick Mahomes has already thrown 13 TD passes without an interception.  I don’t think they’ll get much resistance from the Broncos this week.  Opposing quarterbacks are completing 70% of their passes against Denver’s defense this year and they’re giving up 263 passing yards per game and 7.5 per attempt.  Case Keenum has actually been pretty good as he’s leading a Denver offense that is averaging 383 yards per game and 6.0 YPP.  The Chiefs are giving up 30.7 PPG, 474 YPG and 6.9 YPP as they’re the worst defense in the league to this point.  They are allowing 363 PYPG and 7.7 yards per attempt.  Expect more offensive fireworks tonight between these two teams.  The OVER is 4-0 in Chiefs last 4 Monday games.  The OVER is 5-2 in Broncos last 7 Monday games.  The OVER is 5-0-1 in the last 6 meetings.  Take the OVER. 

6* AFC Game of the Day on New York Jets +7.5 

The Key: The Jaguars managed just 6 points last week in a loss to the Titans at home.  They have some key injuries right now that won’t help them the rest of the way.  They lost left tackle Cam Robinson to a torn ACL.  And Blake Bortles just doesn’t have many weapons outside.  Leonard Fournette is still banged up.  I just don’t think Jacksonville can be laying these kinds of prices with how poor their offense is.  And the Jets are in a good spot here with extra rest having played last Thursday in a tough loss at Cleveland.  They’ll be looking to bounce back here and have played well in their two road games, also winning 48-17 at Detroit.  The Jets are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss.  The Jaguars are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 September games.  Take New York. 

6* Sunday NFL *Upset Special* on Houston Texans +1 

The Key: The Texans need a win and should get one here Sunday against a Colts team that they are clearly betting than.  The Texans are outgaining opponents by 46 yards per game this season, so they are clearly better than their 0-3 record.  The Colts are getting outgained by 58 yards per game and are fortunate to be 1-2 as they have the stats of an 0-3 team.  The Texans are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games in Week 4.  The Colts are 2-6 in their last 8 against the AFC South.  The road team is 5-1-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings.  Take Houston. 

7* NFL Total of the Month on Bengals/Falcons OVER 52.5 

The Key: The Falcons have one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL, especially when they are playing at home.  They are averaging 34 points and 424 yards per game at home this year in their two contests.  They should light it up against a Bengals defense that is giving up 26 points and 394 yards per game this season.  And the Bengals have clearly improved offensively this season averaging 30 points and 366 yards per game.  They should be able to take advantage of an Atlanta defense that is giving up 28 points and 402 yards per game.  The Falcons have so many injuries right now that on defense.  They are without 3 starters in Keanu Neal, Deion Jones and Ricardo Allen.  The Falcons are 6-0 OVER in home games vs. poor defensive teams that allow 350 or more yards per game over the last 3 seasons.  Atlanta is 9-1 OVER in home games with a total of 49.5 or more over the last 3 seasons.  The Falcons are 7-0 OVER after allowing 400 or more yards in their previous game over the last 3 years.  Take the OVER. 

6* MAC Game of the Day on Eastern Michigan -3 

The Key: The Eagles Michigan Eagles continue to lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers here as only 3-point favorites over Northern Illinois.  This is a team that has gone 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games overall and continue to be a covering machine.  They have showed their mettle with a 20-19 win at Purdue as 15-point dogs, a 28-35 road loss to a very good Buffalo team, and a 20-23 road loss to a very good San Diego State as 10.5-point dogs over the last 3 weeks.  They should be able to handle this down NIU team that is 1-3 with three double-digits losses.  Their only win was a 24-16 win over Central Michigan as 13.5-point favorites.  That’s a Central Michigan team that lost 31-7 at home to Kansas.  The Huskies have been embarrassing on offense this year, averaging just 14 PPG, 236 YPG and 3.5 YPP.  It doesn’t get any worse than that.  The Eagles are 11-1 ATS off a game where they forced 1 or fewer turnovers over the last 3 seasons.  The Eagles are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games following a loss.  The Huskies are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games.  Take Eastern Michigan. 

6* Big Ten Game of the Day on Northwestern +15 

The Key: Northwestern is primed for a big game Saturday.  The Wildcats have been steaming for two weeks following their upset loss to Akron in which the Zips had 3 defensive touchdowns.  They outgained Akron by 124 yards.  And they lost to Duke the week before despite outgaining them by 80 yards.  This is a Wildcats team that had high expectations coming into the season.  Not all is lost yet, and they have a chance to make a statement here Saturday and improve to 2-0 in Big Ten play.  Michigan is getting too much respect from the books.  They lost at Notre Dame in the opener, but have reeled off 3 straight home wins over Western Michigan, SMU and Nebraska since.  Big deal.  They will get more of a fight than they are expecting here from the Wildcats.  Michigan is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 games after scoring 31 or more points in 3 straight games coming in.  The Wolverines are 9-24 ATS in their last 33 games following an ATS win.  Michigan is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The Wildcats are 23-4 ATS in their last 27 games after allowing less than 100 rushing yards in their previous game.    Take Northwestern. 

6* Big 12 Game of the Day on Baylor +24 

The Key: Oklahoma is coming off a shocking 28-21 (OT) victory against Army last week.  The Black Knights played a great game and played keep away from the Sooners.  They held the ball for nearly 45 minutes compared to just over 15 for the Sooners.  I think that effort will have Oklahoma’s defense taxed this week, and Baylor can take advantage.  Remember last year Baylor nearly upset Oklahoma in a 41-49 home loss as 27.5-point underdogs.  And this Baylor team is much better than that one, while Oklahoma is not as good as last year.  The Bears have opened 3-1 with their only loss to unbeaten Duke.  They have outgained all four of their opponents this season, including Duke.  Bets on road underdogs off a home win against a conference opponent with 4 or more starters returning than an opponent, plus a returning QB starter against a team with a new QB are 31-7 ATS over the last 5 seasons.  Take Baylor. 

6* ACC Game of the Day on Virginia +6 

The Key: Bronco Mendenhall is doing big things in Year 3 at Virginia.  He clearly has his best team yet.  The Cavaliers are 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS this season.  Their only loss was a 4-point road loss to Indiana in the slop as 5-point underdogs.  They beat Richmond 42-13 as 14.5-point favorites.  They beat Ohio 45-31 as 4-point favorites.  And they dominated Louisville 27-3 as 4.5-point favorites.  Their offense is one of the most improved in the country, and their defense is also greatly improved over last year.  They are averaging 32.5 PPG and giving up just 16.7 PPG and 297 YPG.  NC State lost a ton of NFL talent from their defense last year and returned just 3 starters on that side of the ball.  After a weak schedule to open the season with wins over James Madison, Georgia State and Marshall, they take a big step up in class here against the Cavaliers.  Virginia is 7-0 ATS in road games in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons.  The Cavaliers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Virginia. 

7* NCAAF Non-Conference Game of the Year on UL-Lafayette +49.5 

The Key: Alabama is notorious for not being able to cover the spread in these situations.  They are coming off a big win over Texas A&M, and now they step out of the conference this week before playing another SEC game against Arkansas next week.  They just don’t seem like they are ever concerned with running up the score.  The starters should be out of the game early in the 3rd quarter.  That’s going to make it difficult for them to win by 50-plus to cover this spread.  Bets on underdogs of 31.5 or more points who failed to cover the spread in 2 of their last 3 games, a bad team that wins 25% to 40% of their games against a team with a. Winning record are 48-17 ATS since 1992.  Take UL-Lafayette. 

7* Memphis/Tulane NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Tulane +15 

The Key: This feels like a huge game for Tulane if they want to get to a bowl game this year.  The Green Wave have opened 1-3 with road losses to UAB and Ohio State and a home loss to Wake Forest amidst a brutal schedule.  I think they will be ‘all in’ here trying to get a win against Memphis.  This is a Memphis team that only beat lowly South Alabama 52-35 as 31.5-point home favorites last week.  If South Alabama can hang, I certainly believe Tulane can at home.  And Memphis lost its only road game this year 21-22 at Navy, getting upset at 6.5-point favorites.  The Tigers are 4-16 ATS in their last 20 games after scoring 50 points or more.  The Green Wave are 6-0 ATS in home games off a non-conference game over the last 3 years.  Tulane is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 home games overall.  Take Tulane. 

7* Vikings/Rams NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Minnesota +7.5 

The Key: The Vikings are simply catching too many points tonight against the Los Angeles Rams.  The Vikings have been downgraded big time by the public after their upset loss to the Bills last week.  But that loss will only have them even more hungry to bounce back tonight.  And the Rams could not be viewed any higher in the public’s eyes after their 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS start.  But they have beaten three teams in the Raiders, Cardinals and Chargers who have a combined one win between them this season.  Minnesota shut down the Rams 24-7 at home last year.  Jared Goff hasn’t seen a defense nearly as strong as the one he will be up against tonight.  The Vikings are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 games following a loss.  The Vikings are 43-21 ATS in their last 64 games overall.  Take Minnesota. 

7* Steelers/Bucs MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Pittsburgh -1 

The Key: Before the season, the Steelers would have been close to a touchdown favorite here at Tampa Bay.  But after two weeks, the perception of the Steelers is way down because they tied the Browns and lost to the Chiefs.  But it’s clear the Chiefs are one of the best teams in the NFL, and the Browns are one of the most improved teams in the league.  The Bucs are 2-0 out of nowhere with upset wins over both the Saints and Eagles.  Their perception is through the roof right now.  They are overvalued.  Pittsburgh is still the better of these two teams.  They have the better defense and the better offense.  And now they are playing extra hungry looking for their first win of the year.  Expect the Steelers to come out like gangbusters in this one.  Mike Tomlin is 17-6 ATS after allowing 30 points or more last game as the coach of the Steelers.  The Steelers are 23-9-2 ATS in their last 34 road games vs. a team with a. Winning home record.  The Steelers are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.  The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.  Take Pittsburgh. 

7* Chargers/Rams *HEAVY HITTER* on Los Angeles Chargers +7 

The Key: The Rams are getting too much hype right now.  They beat two bad teams in the Raiders and Cardinals and now everyone is crowning them Super Bowl champs already.  And they’re being priced like is as they are now the Super Bowl favorites, and they are 7-point favorites here against a good Chargers team.  The Rams won’t have much of a home-field advantage in this one as both of these teams are based in Los Angeles.  And the Chargers have notoriously been a better road team than home team.  The Chargers are 41-23 ATS in their last 64 games as a road dog of 3.5 to 7 points.  The Chargers are 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 road games.  The Rams are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 home games.  Take the Chargers. 

6* Bengals/Panthers Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Carolina -3 

The Key: The Cincinnati Bengals are getting too much love now after their 2-0 start.  But they were outgained by 50 yards by the Colts and by 52 yards by the Ravens.  They are fortunate to be 2-0.  The Panthers will be hungry for a win here off their loss to the Falcons last week.  They beat the Cowboys 16-8 at home in Week 1 and are a great home team.  RB Joe Mixon, LB Vontaze Burfict and C Billy Price will all beat out for the Bengals this week.  The Panthers are 58-35 ATS in their last 93 games off a road loss.  Ron Rivera is an incredible 20-3 ATS off a road loss as the coach of Carolina.  The Panthers are winning by 7.8 PPG in this spot.  Take Carolina. 

6* Broncos/Ravens AFC *CA$H COW* on Baltimore -5 

The Key: The Ravens are in a supreme spot here.  They have an extra 3 days of rest and preparation after losing to the Bengals on the road last Thursday.  Now they return home fresh and ready to go.  They beat the Bills 47-3 at home in Week 1 and have a big home-field advantage.  The Broncos will be hitting the road for the first time after narrow home wins over the Raiders and Seahawks by a combined 4 points.  I believe the Broncos to be overvalued off their 2-0 start.  The Ravens are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games off a loss.  The Broncos are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games.  The Ravens are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home meetings with Denver.  Take Baltimore. 

6* TCU/Texas Big 12 *CA$H COW* on Texas +3.5 

The Key: The Texas Longhorns are ready to take the next step this season.  They beat USC 37-14 at home last week and now they host TCU for their Big 12 opener looking to make a statement.  They get the Horned Frogs at a great time, too.  TCU will still be licking its wounds from a tough loss to Ohio State last week.  I love backing Texas head coach Tom Herman in the underdog role.  He has gone 21-1 ATS as an underdog lifetime as a head coach or an assistant coach in his 4 different stops.  Take Texas. 

6* Kansas/Baylor Big 12 *CA$H COW* on Baylor -7.5 

The Key: I love the price we are getting with the Baylor Bears at home today against the Kansas Jayhawks.  Baylor is coming off an upset home loss to Duke, while Kansas is coming off back-to-back upset wins over Central Michigan and Rutgers.  That’s why we are getting the Bears so cheap today.  Baylor went into Kansas and won 38-9 last year.  And the Bears are much better this season than they were a year ago.  Baylor is now 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings, winning by 29, 42, 59, 46, 45 and 27 points, respectively.  Expect another blowout win in the Bears’ favor here Saturday.  Take Baylor. 

7* ACC Game of the Month on Clemson -16 

The Key: The Clemson Tigers aren’t laying enough points to the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets.  That’s largely due to the fact that they are 0-3 ATS on the season, costing bettors money up to this point.  But I think the price is right to back them now here in a game they should win by 3 touchdowns and finally cash in a winning ticket.  They have owned Georgia Tech in recent seasons, holding them to a combined 17 points in the last 2 meetings.  They have figured out how to stop the triple-option, and they are coming off a dominant 38-7 win over Georgia Southern and their triple-option last week, giving them great preparation for this game Saturday.  The Tigers have held the Yellow Jackets to just 121 yards per game and 2.9 yards per rush on the ground in their last 3 meetings with them.  Georgia Tech lost 1,000-yard rusher KirVonte Benson a few weeks back against USF, and it’s no wonder they are coming off back-to-back losses as they fell to Pitt last week as well.  This should be somewhere in the neighborhood of a 31-7 victory Saturday, if not worse.  Take Clemson. 

6* Saturday NCAAF *BLOWOUT* on Iowa State -20 

The Key: Akron is coming off a huge upset win over Northwestern as 21-point underdogs last week.  They looked left for dead trailing 21-3 at halftime.  But then the craziness happened.  The Zips got 3 defensive touchdowns in the 2nd half and won 39-34.  Now they’re in a big letdown spot here against a hungry Iowa State team that is looking for its first win.  The Cyclones have played a brutal early schedule losing on the road at Iowa and at home to Oklahoma as dogs.  They will get right here against an Akron team they beat 41-14 on the road last season.  The Cyclones should have no problem winning this game by 3 touchdowns or more.  Iowa State is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 home games.  The Cyclones are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. MAC opponents.  Akron is 0-8 ATS in its last 8 games off an upset win as a double-digit underdog.  The Zips are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games off a road win.  Take Iowa State. 

6* Notre Dame/Wake Forest *CA$H COW* on Wake Forest +7 

The Key: Notre Dame is probably the most overrated team in the country.  The Fighting Irish are 3-0 but could easily be 0-3.  All 3 of their victories have come by 8 points or less, including a 24-16 win over Ball State as 33.5-point favorites and a 22-17 win over Vanderbilt as 13.5-point favorites.  Now the Fighting Irish hit the road for the first time this season against a pesky Wake Forest team that nearly beat Boston College at home last time out, losing 34-41.  And the Demon Deacons have had a couple extra days to prepare for Notre Dame after playing BC last Thursday.  Wake hung tough in a 37-48 loss at Notre Dame as 14.5-point underdogs last season.  They managed 587 total yards against the Notre Dame defense in the loss.  The Demon Deacons once again have an explosive offense this season that is averaging 36 PPG and 547 YPG on the year.  The Demon Deacons are 11-3 ATS as underdogs over the last 3 seasons.  The Fighting Irish are 1-8 ATS when playing against a team that wins 60% to 75% of their games over the last 3 years.  They are also 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs. a team with a winning record overall.  Take Wake Forest. 

7* FAU/UCF ESPN Friday Night Lights on Florida Atlantic +13.5 

The Key: I think UCF is overvalued due to having not lost a game since 2016.  And I think losing their game last week due to weather is a bad thing for them.  FAU is a team that returned 16 starters this year including 10 on defense.  The Owls have been tested as they’ve already played Oklahoma and Air Force.  They have had this game circled on their calendars and should put forth a home run effort.  UCF has not been tested yet playing Upon and South Carolina State.  The UConn put up 486 total yards on this UCF defense.  The Owls should have plenty of success with their running game, which is elite.  The Knights have allowed 198 rushing yards per game in their two games against awful competition.  The Owls are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Knights are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.  Take Florida Atlantic. 

7* Jets/Browns AFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Cleveland -3 

The Key: The Browns are just 1-32-1 in all games over the past 3 seasons.  However, I believe they are favored for a reason here.  They took the Steelers to overtime and tied them.  They should have beaten the Saints last week in a 21-18 loss in which they lost 8 points by the kicker, who was subsequently cut.  This Browns defense is loaded.  Greg Williams loves to blitz, and blitzing rookie quarterbacks is a winning strategy in the NFL.  This will be Sam Darnold’s stiffest test yet after facing weak Lions and Dolphins defenses in his first 2 games.  The Browns have forced 8 turnovers thus far and will force a few more here against Darnold and company.  Cleveland’s offense takes care of the football behind Tyrod Taylor.  That will be the difference in this game.  Take Cleveland. 

7* Seahawks/Bears NFC *Total* Annihilator on OVER 43 

The Key: The Bears should be a great ‘over’ team this season.  They added a ton of weapons in the offseason, and new head coach Matt Nagy is an offensive guy who came over from Kansas City.  So far so good as the Bears lost to the Packers 23-24 in their opener and went OVER 44.5 points.  The Seahawks are also an ‘over’ team this season.  They can’t run the ball and have to throw it around 40 times a game with Russell Wilson.  And their defense has lost like 6 stars from last season, and they’re banged up right now as well with KJ Wright, Bobby Wagner and Byron Maxwell all unlikely to play.  So far so good for them as well as they lost 24-27 to the Broncos and went OVER 42.5 points.  They gave up 470 yards to the Broncos in the loss.  Pete Carroll is 16-4 OVER as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points as the coach of Seattle.  The OVER is 8-1 in the last 9 meetings.  The OVER is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings in Chicago.  Take the OVER. 

7* AFC East Game of the Month on New York Jets -2.5 

The Key: I’m a believer in the Jets.  They beat the Lions 48-17 in Week 1 in a dominant defensive effort, an impressive debut of Sam Darnold, and a solid rushing game that produced 169 yards.  Now the Jets head home for their first home game this season, and the fans will be packing the stands in Week 2 to see their rookie QB first-hand.  And the Jets are only 2.5-point favorites in this matchup with the Dolphins, who I believe to be one of the worst teams in the NFL.  And the Dolphins were gassed in the 4th quarter of that 7-hour marathon against the Titans that was continually delayed by lightning last week.  They won 27-20, but now they hit the road for the first time.  The Jets are 6-0 ATS in home games when playing with 6 or less days’ rest over the last 2 seasons.  The Jets are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 home games.  The Dolphins are 0-5 ATS in the last 5 road games.  Take New York. 

6* Chiefs/Steelers AFC *CA$H COW* on Kansas City +5.5 

The Key: The Pittsburgh Steelers are very beatable this season, especially early on.  That was evident last week when the Browns took them to overtime in a tie.  The Steelers turned the ball over 6 times.  They clearly miss Le’Veon Bell and his leadership and passing skills out of the backfield.  Big Ben suffered an elbow injury and didn’t practice until late in the week.  The defense was awful last year once Ryan Shazier went out and they didn’t replace him this offseason.  CB Joe Haden is doubtful this week, and you don’t want to be without a starting corner when going up against this explosive Chiefs offense.  Guard David DeCastro is doubtful as well.  The Chiefs rolled the Chargers 38-28 and got explosive play after explosive play from Tyreke Hill and company.  The Chiefs have as many weapons as any team in the NFL.  The Chiefs are 9-1 ATS after allowing 400 or more yards in their previous game over the last 3 seasons.  Kansas City is 8-0 ATS after gaining 6.5 or more yards per play in their previous game over the last 3 years.  Take Kansas City. 

6* Browns/Saints Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on New Orleans -9 

The Key: The New Orleans Saints will be hungry to bounce back with a blowout victory over the Cleveland Browns today following their upset loss to the Tampa Bay Bucs in Week 1.  This is a Cleveland defense that gave up 472 total yards to the Steelers last week.  They were +5 in turnover differential and still could only get a tie out of it.  And they were lucky to even get that as they trailed 21-7 in the 4th quarter as their offense just couldn’t get going.  Then Josh Gordon had a late TD catch to tie.  But now Gordon has been ruled out for this game and the Browns are looking to trade him.  They have some the worst weapons in the NFL, and there’s no way Tyrod Taylor and company can hang with the Saints in this one.  And they’re missing their leader on defense in LB Christian Kirksey, who is the QB of their D.  The Browns are 8-24 ATS in their last 32 games overall.  Cleveland is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 vs. a team with a losing record.  The Browns are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 vs. NFC opponents.  The Browns are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games on field turf.  Take New Orleans.

7* Ohio State/TCU Top 25 *HEAVY HITTER* on TCU +14 

The Key: TCU is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 as an underdog under Gary Patterson.  And now Patterson is catching two touchdowns against Ohio State Saturday.  The Horned Frogs are licking their chops at the opportunity to face the Buckeyes.  Remember, a few years back Ohio State was the team that got into the four-team playoff to knock TCU out of it even though the Horned Frogs deserved to be in.  Patterson and company have not forgotten.  The Horned Frogs play too good defensively to not be competitive here.  And their offense is better than it’s getting credit for with Shawn Robinson at QB.  Even though this is technically a neutral field, it’s not far from TCU’s campus in Arlington and it will be a TCU-heavy crowd.  Take TCU. 

6* Boise State/Oklahoma State *CA$H COW* on Boise State ML +110 

The Key: Oklahoma State lost all of its stars on offense from last season.  The Cowboys won’t be that good on offense this season because of it.  But they haven’t been exposed yet because of the ease of their schedule getting to host both Missouri State as a 45-point favorite and South Alabama as a 30-point favorite.  But now they will get exposed against Boise State, which returns 16 starters this season and is the best Group of 5 team in the country.  The Broncos won 56-20 at Troy and 62-7 at home over UConn to prove they are for real.  Those are two better opponents than Oklahoma State has faced this season.  The offense is humming with 59 PPG and 617 YPG, and the defense is dynamite with 10 returning starters and allowing 13.5 PPG and 286 YPG thus far.  Brian Harsin is 10-2 ATS as an underdog in all games as a head coach.  Take Boise State on the Money Line.

6* Oklahoma/Iowa State Big 12 *CA$H COW* on Iowa State +19 

The Key: Oklahoma is the flavor of the week right now with its 63-14 win over Florida Atlantic and 49-21 win over UCLA to open the season.  Iowa State has only played one game, and it was an ugly 3-13 loss at Iowa.  I think we’re getting a few too many points here with the Cyclones at home.  They are different animal on their home field and proved that they once again have a great defense by limiting Iowa to just 271 total yards.  They will be able to limit Oklahoma this week.  The Cyclones pulled the 38-31 upset in Oklahoma as 30-point underdogs last season.  They also only lost 24-34 at home to Oklahoma in 2016 as 21-point dogs.  This game will be closer than expected.  The Cyclones are 11-2 ATS in Saturday games over the last 2 seasons.  The Cyclones are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games played on a grass field.  The Cyclones are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 vs. a team with a winning record.  The Sooners are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games.  The Sooners are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.  Take Iowa State. 

6* Saturday NCAAF *Upset Special* on Rutgers ML +125 

The Key: Kansas just ended a 46-game road losing streak with a win at Central Michigan last week.  That followed up a ugly home loss to FCS opponent Nicholls State.  I think the Jayhawks are actually better on the road because they get away from home, where there’s a lot of negativity to surround the program.  Fans will be quick to boo them this week if it goes south again.  I think Rutgers is the more talented of these two teams.  They were beaten badly by Ohio State last week on the road, otherwise they wouldn’t be underdogs here.  Kansas is overvalued off its road win against a bad CMU team.  Rutgers is 33-16 ATS in its last 49 non-conference road games.  The Scarlet Knights are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. Big 12 opponents.  The Jayhawks are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU win.  Kansas is also 7-18-1 ATS in its last 26 games following an ATS win.  Take Rutgers on the Money Line. 

6* Saturday NCAAF Dog of the Day on Georgia Southern +33 

The Key: I expect Clemson to be sleep-walking through this game Saturday morning.  They are coming off a huge 28-26 win at Texas A&M, and they have their ACC opener against Georgia Tech on deck next week.  They just want to get out of here with a win against Georgia Southern.  I think Georgia Southern will play this game closer than expected.  They beat South Carolina State 37-6 as 28.5-point favorites and UMass 34-13 as 1.5-point favorites.  They have 18 starters back from last year and have been notorious for giving Power 5 programs fits through the years with their triple option.  Georgia Southern lost in OT to Georgia in 2015, had a one-point road loss to NC State in 2014, and lost by only 4 points at Georgia Tech in 2014.  They also stunned Florida in Gainesville in 2013.  The Eagles are averaging 326 rushing yards per game this season and their triple-option will give Clemson a hard time here.  Take Georgia Southern. 

7* Ravens/Bengals AFC North *HEAVY HITTER* on Baltimore +1 

The Key: The Baltimore Ravens are now 6-0 this season when you count the preseason.  They are not only winning, they are dominating.  They have won those 6 games by an average of nearly 17 points per game, including their 47-3 drubbing of the Bills last week.  They lost to Cincinnati in their season finale last year with a trip to the playoffs on the line.  It’s revenge time here for the Ravens, who are clearly the better team and simply just have to win this game to cover.  Take Baltimore. 

7* Rams/Raiders MNF *BAILOUT* on Los Angeles -5.5 

The Key: The Los Angeles Rams should be one of the best teams in the NFL this season, parlaying 2017 Coach of the Year Sean McVay’s big season last year into another great one this year.  They added Brandon Cooks and now have as many weapons as any team in the NFL offensively.  Defensively, they added DT Suh and CB’s Peters and Talib.  They should also have one of the best defenses in the NFL.  The Raiders are in transition in Jon Gruden’s first season and won’t be that good this year.  They traded away their best defensive player in Kahlil Mack, and many teammates weren’t happy about it.  I just don’t think the Raiders have the offensive punch to hang with the Rams, or the defense to slow them down in Week 1 here.  Take Los Angeles. 

6* NFC Total of the Day on Panthers/Cowboys UNDER 42.5

The Key: Two sub-par offenses meet two great defenses in this matchup between Carolina and Dallas.  The Cowboys managed 22.1 PPG last year on offense while the Panthers averaged 22.9 PPG.  Both modest numbers.  And I believe the Cowboys to be worse off on offense this season with the losses of Dez Bryant and Jason Witten, plus a banged-up offensive line to open the season.  The Cowboys only gave up 20.7 PPG last year and there’s reason to believe they will be even better this season since they have more depth along the defensive line, and get a healthy Sean Lee for at least the start of the season.  The Panthers gave up 21.1 PPG last year and have consistently been one of the NFL’s top stop units.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Cowboys last 4 games.  The UNDER is 19-7 in Cowboys last 26 road games.  The UNDER is 13-6-1 in Panthers last 20 games on grass.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Panthers last 6 games during Week 1.  Take the UNDER. 

7* NFL Game of the Week on Denver Broncos -2.5 

The Key: The Denver Broncos have one of the best defenses in the NFL in 2018.  They were 3rd in total defense last year and only got better this offseason with the addition of the 5th overall pick in Bradley Chubb.  Teams are going to regret passing up on him.  The pass rush and secondary are the strengths of the Broncos, and that makes this a great matchup for them against a suspect Seattle offensive line.  Russell Wilson is in line for a rough game Sunday in Denver.  The Seahawks are just 1-9 ATS in road games in the first two weeks of the season under head coach Pete Carroll.  Take Denver. 

6* AFC Total of the Day on Bengals/Colts UNDER 48

The Key: I’m shocked to see this total so high when these were two of the worst offensive teams in the NFL last season.  The Bengals averaged just 18.1 PPG and 280 YPG while the Colts managed just 16.4 PPG and 285 YPG.  Of course, the Colts should be better with Andrew Luck this year, but he won’t come out too sharp in Week 1, which is his first start in nearly two seasons.  The Bengals have a solid defense and the Colts have an improving stop unit.  The Colts are 11-1 UNDER in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.  The Bengals are 12-3 UNDER when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 years.  Cincinnati is 27-11 UNDER in its last 38 road games with a total of 45.5 or higher.  The UNDER is 8-0 in Colts last 8 games overall.  The UNDER is 37-18 in Colts last 55 home games.  The UNDER is 13-6 in Bengals last 19 road games.  The UNDER is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Indianapolis.  Take the UNDER. 

6* Penn State/Pitt ABC *CA$H COW* on Pittsburgh +7.5 

The Key: Penn State needing overtime in Week 1 to beat Appalachian State 45-38 as 24-point favorites is a telling sign of things to come for the Nittany Lions.  They lost a ton of playmakers on offense, and Trace McSorley was fortunate to bring them back for a win in the final seconds and in OT.  But the more concerning thing is a defense that gave up 38 points to the Mountaineers and returns just 3 starters from last year.  Pitt doesn’t have an explosive offense, but even they should be able to move the football and score points on this Penn State defense.  The Panthers do have a great defense, however, with 9 returning starters.  This should be Pat Narduzzi’s best defense yet in his 4th year at Pitt.  The Panthers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Pittsburgh. 

6* Clemson/Texas A&M ESPN *CA$H COW* on Texas A&M +12 

The Key: I like the fact that Jimbo Fisher knows Clemson well after coaching against them every year in the ACC at Florida State.  Fisher knows what it takes to beat Dabo Swinney and company.  And Fisher stepped into a great situation at Texas A&M with 16 returning starters, including QB Kellen Mond, who was offered by Clemson coming out of high school.  The Aggies made easy work of Northwestern State 59-7 last Thursday, outgaining them by 507 total yards.  And now they’ve had a few extra days to prepare for Clemson, which played on Saturday.  This will be the toughest game of the regular season for the Tigers as the 12th Man at Kyle Field is no joke.  The Aggies are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 September games, and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games.  Take Texas A&M. 

7* Georgia/South Carolina SEC Game of the Month on South Carolina +10.5 

The Key: South Carolina finally has a team that is capable of competing with Georgia.  The Gamecocks believe they are good enough to challenge the Bulldogs for an SEC East title this season.  They get their chance to prove it on the field at home Saturday in what will be a hostile environment.  The Gamecocks are 7-1-3 ATS in their last 11 conference games.  South Carolina is 18-7-1 ATS in its last 26 games off a win by more than 20 points.  The Gamecocks are 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  This is the best team that Will Muschamp has had yet at South Carolina, especially offensively with a great QB and two amazing playmakers at RB & WR.  Take South Carolina. 

6* Saturday NCAAF Dog of the Day on Buffalo +4.5 

The Key: I believe Buffalo has a better team than Temple this season and that will show on the field Saturday.  Buffalo has 14 returning starters and one of the more underrated QB/WR combos in the country with Tyree Jackson and Anthony Johnson, who had 76 receptions for 1,356 yards and 14 touchdowns last year.  The Bulls rolled Delaware State 48-10 in their opener.  Temple lost 17-19 at home to Villanova as 14.5-point favorites, a sign of bad things to come for the Owls this year.  They have just 12 returning starters and lose each of their top two receivers from a year ago.  Not only did they get beat by Villanova, they got dominated statistically by getting outgained by 154 yards.  Their offense is clearly in trouble after amassing just 251 total yards against Villanova.  The Bulls are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  Buffalo is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 September games.  The Owls are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 September games.  Temple is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 vs. MAC opponents.  Take Buffalo. 

6* Saturday NCAAF *Upset Special* on Kansas +4 

The Key: Central Michigan is a rebuilding team this year that returns only 10 starters and loses stud QB Shane Morris.  Their game against Kentucky wasn’t as close as the 20-35 final would indicate last week.  They were outgained by 172 yards in that matchup.  Kansas was upset 23-26 by Nicholls State in overtime, but that’s a great FCS program and the Jayhawks were single-digit favorites.  Nicholls State has given Georgia and Texas A&M fits in recent years, so it wasn’t much of an upset and it’s getting overblown.  This is still the best team that David Beatty has had at Kansas yet with 19 returning starters in his 4th season.  I believe they go on the road and get an ‘upset’ victory against this inexperienced Chippewas squad.  Take Kansas. 

7* TCU/SMU NCAAF Friday Night Lights on TCU -22 

The Key: The TCU Horned Frogs have owned the SMU Mustangs in recent years.  TCU has won the last 5 meetings by more than 31 PPG on average.  And that should be about the margin of victory for this year’s matchup.  TCU is another Big 12 title contender with an elite defense and an improved offense under a new QB.  And SMU is certainly going to take a step back now that Chad Morris is gone after improving dramatically under him and actually making a bowl last year.  But they lost that bowl by 41 points with Sonny Dykes at the helm, and they were blasted by 23 points at North Texas in Week 1 in Dykes’ first official first game as head coach last week.  The Mustangs are in for a rude awakening tonight.  Take TCU. 

7* Falcons/Eagles NFC *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 45 

The Key: The Falcons and Eagles both made deep runs in the playoffs last year due to their defenses, not their offenses.  The Eagles gave up just 18.2 PPG last season while the Falcons surrendered just 19.1 PPG.  I believe this total to be too high tonight.  The Falcons regressed big-time on offense last year, averaging just 21.6 PPG.  That was due to losing coordinator Kyle Shanahan.  The Eagles weren’t nearly as good on offense once Carson Wentz went down last year.  Wentz remains out to start the season, leaving the job to backup Nick Foles, who was awful in the preseason and has been awful in basically every game other than the Super Bowl.  Go figure.  And top wideout Alshon Jeffrey is out with a shoulder injury right now, as is fellow WR Mack Hollins.  The Eagles are limited on weapons in Week 1.  The UNDER is 7-0 in Falcons last 7 games overall.  The UNDER is 7-0 in Falcons last 7 vs. NFC teams.  The UNDER is 4-1 in Eagles last 5 home games.  The UNDER is 9-3-1 in the last 13 meetings.  Take the UNDER. 

6* VA Tech/FSU ACC *CA$H COW* on Virginia Tech +7.5 

The Key: It’s going to take some time for Florida State to get used to new head coach Willie Taggart’s systems.  They are talented on offense and will eventually be great, but I’m expecting plenty of mistakes form them in the opener.  And defensively is where they have the biggest questions because they return just 4 starters on D.  I trust Justin Fuente, who enters is 3rd season in Blacksburg and has already guided the Hokies to 10 and 9-win seasons in his first 2 years.  He has 12 returning starters to work with in 2018, including 7 on offense.  Bud Foster’s defense gave up just 14.8 PPG last year, so even though they lose some guys, they will be good again because they are every year.  The Seminoles are 0-6-2 ATS in their last 8 conference games.  FSU is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points.  The Hokies are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 as a road dog of 3.5 to 7 points.  Take Virginia Tech. 

7* Miami/LSU NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Miami -3 

The Key: The Miami Hurricanes won 10 games last year and are a team on the rise under Mark Richt.  They have 14 returning starters, including their starting QB and an elite defense.  LSU is headed in the wrong direction under Ed Orgeron.  And things aren’t getting any better for him this season with just 10 returning starters.  LSU is 1-8 ATS in September games over the last 3 seasons.  Orgeron is 4-13 ATS in September games as a head coach.  LSU is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 vs. ACC teams.  Take Miami. 

6* Saturday NCAAF *Total* Annihilator on SMU/North Texas OVER 71 

The Key: Two high-powered offenses go toe-to-toe Saturday when SMU takes on North Texas.  These teams played last year with SMU winning 54-32 for 86 combined points.  I think we see a similar combined point total in the 2018 rematch.  SMU put up 37.8 PPG last year.  They do lose head coach Chad Morris, but bring in another offensive-minded Sonny Dykes to take his place.  Dykes and his Air Raid offense are a perfect match for junior QB Ben Hicks, who threw for 3,569 yards and 33 touchdowns last year.  North Texas averaged 35.5 PPG last year and now welcomes back 9 starters on offense.  That includes junior QB Mason Fine, who threw for 4,052 yards and 31 touchdowns a year ago.  This is going to be a fun game to watch with Fine and Hicks trading blows for 60 minutes.  The OVER is 7-2 in Mustangs last 9 road games.  The OVER is 4-0 in Mean Green last 4 home games.  The OVER is 6-1 in Mean Green last 7 non-conference games.  North Texas is 6-0 OVER as a home favorite over the last 3 seasons.  Take the OVER. 

7* Washington/Auburn Top 10 *HEAVY HITTER* on Washington +2.5 

The Key: The Washington Huskies are one of the best teams in the country in 2018.  They return 17 starters from a team that won 10 games last year.  This is a statement game for them taking down an SEC team in Auburn on a neutral field.  The Huskies have the best unit on the field, which is their defense that gave up 16.1 PPG last year and returns 9 starters.  Their ability to shut down Jarrett Stidham and this Auburn offense will be the key to victory.  The Tigers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games.  Auburn is 0-5-1 ATS in its last 6 non-conference games.  Take Washington. 

6* Saturday NCAAF *Upset Special* on Northern Illinois +10 

The Key: Northern Illinois is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 games against the Big Ten.  The Huskies have been notorious for pulling off upsets against this conference throughout the years.  They even beat this same Iowa team on the road in 2013.  They beat Northwestern and Nebraska both since 2014, and they only lost by 7 to Ohio State as 34-point underdogs in 2015.  Iowa is just 1-5 ATS in its last six games against MAC teams.  I like this NIU squad that returns 14 starters.  They have everyone back on the offensive line to protect for talented sophomore QB Marcus Childers, who is coming off a great freshman campaign.  Iowa will be without its two starting offensive tackles for this game with suspensions.  They are also missing two key defensive linemen.  They already lose 6 of their top 8 tacklers on defense.  The Huskies are 34-16-3 ATS in their last 53 road games.  Take Northern Illinois. 

6* NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Utah State +24 

The Key: Utah State figures to be one of the most improved teams in the country this season.  The Aggies return 18 starts and are more than capable of keeping this game close against Michigan State.  I think the Spartans come in overrated after a 10-win season last year that nobody could have predicted.  They won 10 games in spite of an offense that managed just 24.5 PPG.  That offense won’t be much better this season.  They do have another good defense again, but asking them to lay this many points in the opener to a game Utah State team is too much.  The Aggies are 16-6-1 ATS in their last 23 Friday games.  The Spartans are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 Friday games.  Take Utah State. 

6* Northwestern/Purdue Big Ten *CA$H COW* on Purdue -1 

The Key: Purdue still enters 2017 getting no respect after making a bowl in Jeff Brohm’s first year.  They are just 1-point home favorites here against the Northwestern Wildcats.  And they have 13 starters back from that team, including 9 on offense.  This should be one of the best offenses in the Big Ten.  Northwestern has a great defense but its offense leaves a lot to be desired, especially with the loss of NU’s all-time leading rusher in Justin Jackson.  I believe Clayton Thorson is overrated and won’t be hitting on all cylinders in Game 1 as he returns from a torn ACL.  The Boilermakers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.  They’ll want revenge from a 23-13 loss at Northwestern last year.  Take Purdue. 

6* Hawaii/Colorado State MWC *CA$H COW* on Hawaii +17 

The Key: Colorado State is one of the least experienced teams in the country this season.  They rank 130th in terms of experience and have just 9 returning starters this year.  I think this is a hefty price for them to pay in their opener against a conference opponent in Hawaii.  The Warriors will be trying to win this game for the people of Hawaii, who are having to endure a Hurricane right now and all that comes with it.  This is a chance for them to get away to the mainland and focus on football for a day.  They went to the mainland and won their opener last season against UMass.  Take Hawaii. 

7* Eagles/Patriots Super Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on New England -175 

The Key: I trust the experience of Tom Brady and the Patriots much more than that of Nick Foles and the Eagles.  And instead of laying the points, I’m going to back the Patriots at a great money line price of -175 today.  Bill Belichick is 28-0 against the money line after successfully covering the spread in 8 or more of their last 10 games as the coach of the Patriots.  Enough said.  Take New England.