Sports Picks & Predictions

6* UAB/South Alabama NCAAF *CA$H COW* on South Alabama +7

The Key: South Alabama won outright as a 15-point dogs at Southern Miss in its opener and only lost 24-27 as a 10-point dog to Tulane in their next game.  And they led 24-6 over Tulane and should have won.  I actually think this is a step down in class for South Alabama against UAB Thursday night.  UAB only beat Central Arkansas by 10 as a 21.5-point favorite and gave up 35 points to that FCS team.  UAB also lost by 17 to Miami as a 15.5-point dog.  UAB suffered a big blow when starting QB Tyler Johnson hurt his shoulder against Miami and backup Bryce Lucero came in and completed just 33% of his 12 attempts.  Lucero is a redshirt freshman and cannot be trusted.  South Alabama is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 home games.  The Jaguars are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as underdogs.  The Blazers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games.  Take South Alabama.

7* Saints/Raiders MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Oakland +5.5

The Key: All the playmakers the Raiders added in the offseason paid off in a big way against the Panthers in Week 1.  Las Vegas scored 34 points and will be a tough team to stop offensively all season.  Their defense is better than it showed against the Panthers and played well in giving up only 15 points through 3 quarters, but Carolina made a comeback in the 4th.  The Saints did not beat the Bucs as badly as the 34-23 final would suggest.  They only had 271 total yards but forced 3 turnovers and didn’t give the ball away once.  They slowed down without Michael Thomas, who suffered an ankle injury in that game and is now out this week.  There’s just no replacing what Thomas does for this offense.  He had 149 receptions for 1,725 yards and 9 TD in 2019 after having 125 receptions for 1,405 yards and 9 TD in 2018.  He is arguably the best receiver in the NFL.  Take Las Vegas.

6* Lions/Packers NFC *CA$H COW* on Detroit +6.5

The Key: The Detroit Lions just blew a 23-6 lead over the Chicago Bears in the 4th quarter. They are the kinds of close losses dating back to last season, and they don’t want to be known as the team that cannot finish this year.  Look for them to be playing with a chip on their shoulder Sunday against the Packers.  And since the Lions have such a knack for losing close games, getting 6.5 points with them here is a nice price.  The Packers are over-hyped after beating up on a young, banged-up Minnesota defense last week, winning 43-34.  The Lions will offer a lot more resistance than the Vikings did on both sides of the ball.  Detroit is 4-2 SU & 6-0 ATS in its last 6 meetings with Green Bay with the 2 losses both coming last year by 1 and 3 points.  They have revenge in mind in this first matchup of 2020.  Take Detroit.

6* Rams/Eagles NFC *CA$H COW* on Philadelphia PK

The Key: Philadelphia blew a 17-0 lead against Washington last week and was outscored 27-17 the rest the way.  The offense stalled, and Carson Wentz had a poor game as he just didn’t have any time and was sacked 8 times.  Injuries on the offensive line contributed to it.  But the Eagles got good injury news this week as both G Jason Peters and T Lane Johnson will play Sunday, plus they get RB Mile Sanders back after missing last week.  Johnson means everything to the O-Line.  The Eagles are 36-17 with Lane under Doug Pederson, but just 6-12 without him.  The Rams played good enough to win over the Cowboys, who had all kinds of injuries hit their defense last week.  The Rams won that game 20-17.  Now they faced a pissed off Eagles team, and the challenge will be much tougher for them this week.  I love the price getting the Eagles as a pick ‘em at home as I still think they are the better team than the Rams.  Take Philadelphia.

7* AFC South Game of the Month on Jacksonville Jaguars +9

The Key: The Jacksonville Jaguars were singled-out as the worst team in the NFL in the offseason by most media outlets.  They are taking it personally.  They respond with a 27-20 win over Indianapolis as 7-point dogs in Week 1.  I was on them in that game, and I’m back on them again this week as 9-point dogs to the Tennessee Titans.  Gardner Minshew continued proving his doubters wrong, completing 19-of-20 passes against the Colts with his only incompletion being a catchable ball.  With Minshew at QB, they will be able to compete.  The Titans are over-hyped after making the AFC Championship last year.  They barely beat the Broncos 16-14 on Monday Night Football, which means they are now on a short week while the Jaguars have an extra day to get ready.  The Titans are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game.  The Jaguars are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 September games.  Take Jacksonville.

6* Wake Forest/NC State ACC *CA$H COW* on NC State -1

The Key: NC State is a prime bounce-back candidate this year off a disappointing 4-8 season.  The Wolfpack had won 9 games each of the previous 2 seasons.  But they lost 14 players from those 2 teams combined to the NFL.  So last year was a rebuilding season.  Now the Wolfpack have 15 starters back this year and a ton of talent, especially on offense where 10 starters are back.  Wake Forest looks like the rebuilding team this year.  They went 8-5 last year but now only return 11 starters, including just 3 on offense.  They lose their QB, leading rusher and leading receiver.  NC State wants to avenge its embarrassing 10-44 loss to Wake Forest last year, and you can bet they’ve been using it as motivation all offseason.  The Wolfpack will be ready to play at home Saturday.  The home team is 16-4 ATS in the last 20 matchups.  Take NC State.

7* Miami/Louisville ACC *HEAVY HITTER* on Louisville -2.5

The Key: The Louisville Cardinals have 16 starters back from a team that went 8-5 last year in Scott Satterfield’s first season coming over from Appalachian State.  They are loaded everywhere and it showed last week as they outgained Western Kentucky by 239 yards and put up 487 yards of offense.  They will now take down Miami and avenge a 27-52 loss at Miami last year.  But they outgained Miami by 47 yards in that game and never should have lost by 25.  They lost the turnover battle 3-0 which proved to be the difference.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 matchups.  The Cardinals are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games.  The Hurricanes are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 road games.  Take Louisville.

6* Syracuse/Pitt ACC *CA$H COW* on Syracuse +21.5

The Key: This line is out of whack due to what happened last week.  Syracuse lost 6-31 to a UNC team that is a serious contender to win the ACC.  Pitt beat Austin Peay 55-0 and easily covered the 26.5-point spread.  And keep in mind Syracuse was only trailing that juggernaut of a UNC team 6-10 entering the 4th quarter before things spiraled out of control in the final period.  Pitt hasn’t been this big of a favorite over an FBS opponent since the Panthers were favored by 24 over Syracuse in 2016.  They only won that game by 15 points.  The Panthers are 8-19 ATS in their last 27 games as home favorites.  Take Syracuse.

7* Bengals/Browns AFC *Total* Annihilator on OVER 43.5

The Key: There are some key injuries on defense for both teams heading into this Thursday night affair.  The Browns are missing 3 starters in the secondary, and the Ravens diced them up for 38 points last week.  They also lost LB Jacob Phillips in that game and he is out this week.  The Bengals are without their best defensive player in DT Geno Atkins, plus starting S Shawn Williams.  The OVER is 4-0-1 in the last 5 matchups with combined scores of 44 or more points in all 5 games.  They combined for 46 and 56 points in their 2 matchups last year.  Take the OVER.

7* Steelers/Giants NFL *HEAVY HITTER* on Pittsburgh -6

The Key: The Pittsburgh Steelers did a great job of getting to 8-8 last season without Ben Roethlisberger.  They got there behind a defense that ranked 5th in total defense at 304.1 YPG and 5th in scoring defense at 18.9 PPG.  They were also 1st in sacks (54) and 1st in takeaways (38).  Rookie QB Daniel Jones had 23 turnovers last year, including 11 lost fumbles and he didn’t even play the entire season.  The Giants have a makeshift offensive line to start the season, so the Steelers will dominate the line of scrimmage defensively, and that will be the key to them winning and covering.  Big Ben just has to be decent for the Steelers to put away the Giants.  And all reports coming out of training camp is that he has great velocity on his balls and looks like the old Big Ben.  Take Pittsburgh.

6* Dolphins/Patriots AFC East *CA$H COW* on Miami +7.5

The Key: The Miami Dolphins came on strong at the end of last season under Brian Flores. They even upset the New England Patriots in Week 17.  And now the Dolphins have almost everyone back, plus brought in some talent on defense.  They will go with QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, who gives his team a chance to win every week.  The Patriots are in a world of hurt replacing Tom Brady with Cam Newton.  But they are even worse off on defense with all of the players that have opted out.  The Patriots can’t be favored by more than a TD here given their current state entering Week 1.  Take Miami.

6* Jets/Bills AFC East *CA$H COW* on New York +7 

The Key: There’s a lot of hype on the Buffalo Bills after making the playoffs last year.  But they were 10-6 while the Jets were 7-9 and really not that far behind.  And I don’t think there is 7 points separating these teams entering Week 1 of 2020, so I like the price we are getting with the Jets here.  The Jets blew a big lead in Week 1 last year to the Bills and lost 16-17.  But they got revenge in a 13-6 win in Week 17.  And this game will likely be decided by a TD or less, just as the last 3 matchups have been.  Take New York.

7* NFL Game of the Week on Jacksonville Jaguars +8

The Key: The Jaguars have been getting trashed all offseason.  There is a lot of hype around the Colts with the addition of Philip Rivers.  That narrative has created some nice line value here to back the Jaguars catching more of a touchdown at home in their opener. Gardner Minshew had a great rookie season and should only build off of it this year.  The Jaguars are still loaded with talent on defense, and the offense isn’t that bad under Minshew.  Rivers is far past his prime and I don’t think he’ll be as good as everyone is expecting.  He had great weapons with the Chargers, and he has a downgrade in weapons with the Colts.  Take Jacksonville.

6* Coastal Carolina/Kansas NCAAF *BAILOUT* on Coastal Carolina +7

The Key: Coastal Carolina beat Kansas 12-7 last year as identical 7-point dogs.  I think we could see more of the same here in the 2020 rematch.  Coastal has 14 starters back while Kansas only has 11 back.  Coastal got in 15 spring practices, more than almost anyone in the country.  Kansas got in 0 spring practices.  Kansas has to break in a new starting QB this year, while Coastal gets back 8 starters on offense, including its top 2 QB’s from last year in Payton and Carpenter.  Plus redshirt freshman QB Grayson McCall is a stud, so they have good options there no matter who they go with.  The Chanticleers return their top 3 tacklers on D.  They had 4 losses by 7 points or fewer last year in their 5-7 campaign.  This is the 3rd year for head coach Jamey Chadwell and his best team yet.  Take Coastal Carolina.

7* Saturday NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on South Alabama +11

The Key: This South Alabama team looks very promising with the way they closed out last season and now have 15 starters back.  They were competitive in every game when freshman Desmond Trotter took the reigns at quarterback.  They went toe-to-toe with Louisiana in a 27-37 loss and beat Arkansas State 34-30.  Those were 2 of the best teams in the Sun Belt last year.  Trotter has accuracy and mobility, plus smart decision making as he threw 8 touchdowns against only 2 interceptions last year.  He picked up right where he left off in the opener, leading South Alabama to a 32-21 upset win over Southern Miss as 15-point dogs.  Trotter threw for 299 yards and 2 TD while also rushing for 41 yards while leading South Alabama to 526 total yards in the win.  Tulane only has 12 starters back this year and loses it QB, top 2 receivers and top 2 RB’s from last year.  This is another game that the Jaguars have a chance to win outright, especially with a game under their belts already.  Take South Alabama.

6* Louisiana/Iowa State NCAAF *CA$H COW* on Iowa State -11

The Key: Louisiana won a school record 11 games last year and is getting too much respect from oddsmakers entering 2020 because of it.  They lost 3 picks to the NFL draft, including their top 2 offensive linemen.  They will be without their top 3 receivers from last year now that Jamal Bell is out for the year with a knee injury.  They are also without both Brian Smith Jr. and Calif Gossett at receiver as both were expected to add depth.  I don’t expect the chemistry to be very good in the opener between QB Levi Lewis and his receivers.  Louisiana was very fortunate to only give up 19.7 PPG last year when they gave up 372 YPG, an average of a huge 18.9 yards per point allowed.  There will be some regression on that side of the ball.  Iowa State has one of the best defenses in the Big 12 with 8 starters back from a unit that gave up 25.9 PPG and 369 YPG last year.  They will shut down this Louisiana offense.  The Cyclones only return 5 starters on offense, but they are their 2 best players in QB Brock Purdy and RB Breece Hall.  They are just better everywhere on the field, and that will show up on the scoreboard here.  The Rajin Cajuns are 1-5 ATS in their last 5 against Big 12 teams.  Take Iowa State.

6* Texans/Chiefs *Total* Annihilator on OVER 53

The Key: The Chiefs and Texans are 2 of the better offensive teams in the NFL this season, especially the Chiefs.  And both have suspect defenses, especially the Texans.  I think we see plenty of offensive fireworks in this Week 1 opener tonight to push this total OVER 53 points.  The Texans gave up 25.3 PPG and 393 YPG last year.  The Chiefs can score at will on them.  We saw that in the playoffs when the Chiefs won 51-31 for 82 combined points with the Texans.  Houston won the regular season matchup 31-24 for 55 combined points. This total is 53 is simply too low in today’s NFL and with these 2 teams.  Take the OVER.

6* MTSU/Army NCAAF *CA$H COW* on Army -3.5

The Key: Army went 11-2 in 2018 but plummeted to 5-8 in 2019.  They weren’t nearly as bad as their record last year as they still outscored their opponents 28.3 to 23.0 on the season and outgained them 379 to 342 on average.  They simply had bad luck in close games as they lost 6 games by single-digits.  The Black Knights have 12 starters back this year which is more than they had each of the last 2 seasons.  I especially like the defense with 7 starters back from a unit that gave up 23 PPG.  The offense should be fine with Jabari Lewis at QB.  He actually averaged 6.4 YPC last year compared to 5.1 for starter Hopkins.  And he completed 16 of 20 passes for 80% completions, so he may even be better than Hopkins was.  Middle Tennessee went 4-8 last year thanks to an awful defense that gave up 29.9 PPG and 459 YPG.  They only have 5 starters back on D and will be terrible again.  They gave up 194 RYPG and 4.9 YPC last year, which is bad news going up against this triple-option of Army.  The Black Knights will be able to move the ball on the ground at will in this game.  Take Army.

6* Thursday NCAAF *CA$H COW* on South Alabama +15

The Key: This South Alabama team looks very promising with the way they closed out last season and now have 15 starters back.  They were competitive in every game when freshman Desmond Trotter took the reigns at quarterback.  They went toe-to-toe with Louisiana in a 27-37 loss and beat Arkansas State 34-30.  Those were 2 of the best teams in the Sun Belt last year.  Trotter has accuracy and mobility, plus smart decision making as he threw 8 touchdowns against only 2 interceptions last year.  Southern Miss should be a pretty good team with 14 starters back from a squad that went 7-6 last year.  But I don’t expect them to come close to winning this game by more than 2 touchdowns in the opener.  Take South Alabama.

7* 49ers/Chiefs Super Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on San Francisco +1.5 

The Key: The San Francisco 49ers are the most compete team in the NFL this season and certainly deserve their spot in the Super Bowl.  They are 15-3 on the year and those 3 losses all came on the final play of the game.  And they battled through injuries all season and are now as healthy as they’ve been since the start of the year.  They buried both the Vikings and Packers early with a 27-10 win over the Vikings and a 27-0 lead over the Packers.  They are 4th in total offense and 2nd in scoring offense this year.  They are 2nd in total defense this year.  They simply have no weaknesses.  The Chiefs have plenty of weaknesses that the 49ers can exploit.  Kansas City’s offensive line isn’t very good and won’t be able to handle the best D-Line in the NFL.  That’s going to make Mahomes’ job a lot harder as he faces San Francisco’s #1 ranked pass defense.  The Chiefs are weak defensively up the middle as they are 26th against the run and 28th in YPC (4.9) allowed.  The 49ers are 2nd in rushing offense and just rushed for 186 yards on the Vikings and 285 on the Packers, who rank similar to the Chiefs in run D stats.  The 49ers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games against a team with a winning reocrd.  The 49ers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as underdogs.  Take San Francisco. 

6* Packers/49ers NFC *CA$H COW* on San Francisco -7.5 

The Key: The 49ers got 3 defensive starters back last week and held the Vikings to just 10 points and 147 total yards.  They have the best defense in the NFL and that was on display in the 1st meeting.  They beat the Packers 37-8 and held them to 198 total yards including 81 passing.  Green Bay has a terrible offensive line, especially up the middle where they will be overmatched by Armstead and Thomas.  And then you have Bosa and Ford on the outside as arguably the best pass rushing tandem in the NFL.  Not even a QB the caliber of Aaron Rodgers can overcome this elite San Francisco defense.  Take San Francisco. 

7* NFL Playoffs Game of the Year on Kansas City Chiefs -7 

The Key: The Chiefs dominated the first meeting with the Titans but found a way to lose 32-35.  That won’t happen again in the rematch, especially since it’s being played at Arrowhead Stadium.  And now the Chiefs feel invincible after coming back from 24-0 down to win 51-31 over the Texans last week.  The Chiefs outgained the Titans 530 to 371 in their first meeting.  Those kinds of numbers would usually result in a double-digit blowout.  The Chiefs are 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games overall winning by 17 PPG.  Take Kansas City. 

7* Clemson/LSU NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on LSU -5 

The Key: The LSU Tigers have an unstoppable offense and one of the best offenses we’ve ever seen in college football.  And their defense has been lights out down the stretch.  Clemson was fortunate to beat Ohio State and has played a much easier schedule than LSU this year.  The Tigers will have the home field edge with this game being played in New Orleans.  They cap off a tremendous season with a win and cover over Clemson Monday.  Take LSU. 

7* Seahawks/Packers NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Green Bay -4 

The Key: No write up Sunday. On vacation. 

7* NFL Playoffs Total of the Year on Vikings/49ers OVER 44 

The Key: No write up.  On vacation. 

7* Miami (OH)/Lafayette Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on Miami Ohio +14 

The Key: The Miami Ohio Redhawks are playing in just their 2nd bowl game in the last 9 years.  They only lost 16-17 to SEC power Mississippi State as 14-point dogs in their last bowl game in 2016.  And Chuck Martin really thrives in the role of the dog as the coach of Miami Ohio.  They came out of nowhere to win the MAC after upsetting Central Michigan in Detroit.  And Martin is 9-1 ATS off an upset win as a dog as the coach of Miami.  Martin is 32-17 ATS as a dog as the coach of Miami overall.  Take Miami. 

7* NFL Wild Card Total of the Year on Seahawks/Eagles UNDER 45 

The Key: It’s hard to believe the books have set this total this high when you look at all the injuries to both offenses.  The Seahawks had Gordon suspended, are missing at least their top 2 running backs and could be without 2 starting offensive linemen.  Their offense has been broken in recent weeks because of it.  They scored 12 on the Rams, 13 on the Cardinals and 21 on the 49ers in 3 of their last 4 games.  The Eagles’ injury situation is worse.  They are without Lane Johnson, DeSean Jackson, Alshon Jeffery, Nelson Agholor and could be without Zach Ertz again this week.  I think we see a similar game to the 17-9 final for 26 combined points that the Eagles and Seahawks just played earlier this season.  I like that they’ve already played each other this year because that familiarity favors the defenses.  The Eagles are 9-1 UNDER vs. good passing teams that average 235 or more yards per game over the last 10 seasons.  The Eagles are 7-0 UNDER in home games against poor defensive teams that allow 350 or more yards per game over the last 2 years. The Eagles are 7-0 UNDER in home games off a division game over the last 3 years.  The UNDER is 8-1-1 in Eagles last 10 playoff home games and 16-5 UNDER int heir last 21 home games overall.  The UNDER is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.  Take the UNDER. 

7* Bills/Texans AFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Houston -2.5 

The Key: We’re getting the Houston Texans pretty cheap here in a game they basically just have to win to cover at home.  The Bills haven’t done well when they have stepped up in class.  They are 1-4 against playoff teams this year with their only win coming against the Titans when Marcus Mariota was their quarterback.  The Texans have gone 3-3 against playoff teams with wins over the Chiefs, Patriots and Titans.  One of their losses was to the Titans when they rested their starters in Week 17.  They should be fresh and ready to go, plus they get back JJ Watt and a few others from injury that makes them a stronger team going into the playoffs.  Bets on teams when the line is +3 to -3 who are a good passing team at 6.7-7.3 YPA against an average passing team 5.9-6.7 YPA after gaining 5.5 or fewer passing yards per attempt last game are 24-5 ATS over the last 10 years.  Take Houston. 

7* Tennessee/Indiana Gator Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on Tennessee -3 

The Key: There’s a huge difference in this game that should have Tennessee favored by more than 3 over Indiana.  The Vols have gone 4-5 against teams that are 6-6 or better this season.  The Hoosiers have gone 0-4 against teams that are 6-6 or better.  So as you can see, Tennessee played a very tough schedule compared to Indiana and actually beat 4 teams that were bowl eligible while Indiana went 0-4 against those teams.  The Vols are 21-4 ATS in their last 25 road games off 2 consecutive games where they forced one or fewer turnovers.  The Vols are 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall with that one loss coming on the road at Alabama.  Take Tennessee. 

7* Baylor/Georgia Sugar Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on Georgia -4 

The Key: This line has dropped enough to where there’s value on Georgia laying this small number.  They have the talent edge.  And I think they will learn from last year’s loss to Texas where they were upset as 13.5-point favorites in the Sugar Bowl.  They didn’t want to be playing in that game last year.  I think the fact that they were blown out by LSU in the SEC Championship makes it easier for them to accept their fate in the Sugar Bowl this year.  Baylor went to OT against Oklahoma with a chance to make the 4-team playoff.  I think that loss is a loss harder to get over than Georgia’s loss to LSU.  And we saw Oklahoma lose by 35 points and give up 7 straight touchdowns to open the game against LSU last week.  The Big 12 has not looked good with a 1-4 record in bowls thus far.  Georgia is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 neutral site games and 8-1 ATS in its last 9 neutral site games as a favorite.  Georgia is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games off an ATS loss.  This will feel like a home game for the Bulldogs being played in SEC country in New Orleans.  Take Georgia. 

7* Georgia State/Wyoming Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on Wyoming -7 

The Key: The difference between these 2 teams defensively is about as big a difference as you will see in bowl season.  Wyoming only gives up 17.8 PPG and Georgia State gives up 36.1 PPG.  I usually like to back the better defensive team in bowl games.  Wyoming is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games against Sun Bel Teams.  Georgia State hasn’t been the same since QB Dan Ellington tore his ACL.  Give him credit for playing through it, but he hasn’t been the same dual threat QB he was before the injury.  They lost 3 of their last 4 games by an average of 23.7 PPG.  Their only win was at home against South Alabama.  Georgia State is 2-8-2 ATS in its last 12 games against a team with a winning record.  Take Wyoming. 

7* WMU/WKU Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on Western Michigan +3.5 

The Key: The Western Michigan Broncos are hungry for a bowl win after losing 4 of their last 5 bowl games.  But keep in mind they played a tough bowl schedule losing to the likes of Wisconsin, BYU, Purdue and Air Force.  The only bowl game they won during this stretch was against Middle Tennessee 45-31, which is a fellow Conference USA team to Western Kentucky.  I’ll side with WMU’s offense, which averages 34.2 PPG and 457 YPG this year.  WKU only puts up 25.6 PPG and struggles to get margin due to their poor offense.  I like the price we are getting with the Broncos are 3.5-point dogs.  The Hilltoppers are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games as a favorite.  The Broncos are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games off an ATS loss and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games off a SU loss.  Take Western Michigan. 

6* 49ers/Seahawks NFC West *BAILOUT* on San Francisco -3 

The Key: The 49ers are an elite team and a Super Bowl contender, while the Seahawks are a pretender.  The 49ers are +164 in point differential on the season while the Seahawks are only +12.  It’s a minor miracle the Seahawks even have a chance to win the division.  That chance will go by the wayside this week as the 49ers handle their business.  They have a healthy George Kittle and Emmanuel Sanders now, which they didn’t have in their 1st meeting with the Seahawks.  And Seattle will be playing with a lot of different players than they did in that 1st meeting with the 49ers due to their plethora of injuries up and down their roster.  I mean, they even had to sign Marshawn Lynch off the street they are so desperate.  Take San Francisco. 

7* NFC East Game of the Year on New York Giants +4 

The Key: The New York Giants are playing well here in their last 3 games and would like to knock the NFC East rival Eagles out of the playoffs.  The Giants are 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last 3 games overall.  They won 36-20 at home over the Dolphins and 41-35 on the road at the Redskins.  Daniel Jones was great as the Giants had 552 total yards on the Redskins last week.  And now the Giants want to avenge their only loss here down the stretch, a 17-23 (OT) loss at Philadelphia.  Now the Giants get the Eagles at home and are catching 4 points.  It’s a depleted Eagles team that will be without Zach Ertz, Nelson Agholor and several others.  Bets against favorites who are off an upset win as a home dog that win 51% to 60% of their games when playing a losing team are 26-5 ATS since 1983.  Take New York. 

6* Sunday NFL *UPSET SPECIAL* on Cincinnati Bengals +3 

The Key: The Bengals want to avenge their 19-27 loss at Cincinnati earlier this month.  The Browns have a lot more injuries since that meeting, and the Bengals are a lot healthier plus they have gone to Andy Dalton at QB.  Plus the Bengals should have won that game, anyway.  They had 451 yards in that game and outgained the Browns by 118 yards.  The Browns haven’t shown much interest in finishing the season strong at all after losing by 14 at Arizona and by 16 at home to Baltimore.  They were dominated in the stat department in both those games.  Take Cincinnati. 

7* Bowl Total of the Year on Clemson/Ohio State UNDER 63.5 

The Key: Clemson and Ohio State have arguably the 2 best defenses in the country.  Ohio State gives up 12.5 PPG while Clemson allows 10.6 PPG this year.  There’s no way this total should be set this high with these 2 defenses.  Ohio State and Clemson have great offensive numbers, but they have done most of their damage against bad defenses, especially in Clemson’s case.  Texas A&M held Clemson to 24 points and Ohio State can do the same.  Penn State and Wisconsin held Ohio State to 38 or fewer points in all 3 of those games.  Clemson can hold Ohio State below 30.  Clemson is 6-0 UNDER with 2 or more weeks rest over the last 3 years and we’re only seeing 40.9 PPG in this situation.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Clemson’s last 4 semifinal playoff games.  The UNDER is 4-1 in Buckeyes last 5 bowl games.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Buckeyes last 6 games against a team with a winning record.  Take the UNDER.

6* Iowa State/Notre Dame Bowl *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 54.5 

The Key: Two teams with great defenses square off in the Camping World Bowl between Iowa State and Notre Dame.  The Fighting Irish hold opponents to 10.3 PPG and 77 YPG less than their season averages this year.  The Cyclones have one of the best defenses in the Big 12, holding foes to 5 PPG & 50 YPG less than their season averages.  Notre Dame actually runs the ball more than they throw it, attempting 36 rushes per game.  Iowa State runs it more than most Big 12 teams with 32 attempts per game.  The UNDER is 21-10-2 in Iowa State’s last 33 games overall.  The UNDER is 6-0-1 in Iowa State’s last 7 bowl games.  The UNDER is 8-2 in Notre Dame’s last 10 neutral site games as a favorite.  The UNDER is 13-2 in Iowa State’s last 15 games on turf.  The UNDER is 9-0 in Iowa State’s last 9 games after a game where they committed zero turnovers.  Take the UNDER. 

6* Memphis/Penn State Bowl *CA$H COW* on Penn State -7 

The Key: The Memphis Tigers had a great year in the AAC.  But this is a big step up in class against Penn State, which will be the best opponent they have faced yet this year.  And Memphis just lost head coach Mike Norvell to Florida State.  The Tigers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 bowl games and 1-10 ATS in their last 11 December games.  Penn State’s defense gives up only 14.1 PPG and will have an answer for Memphis’ offense.  It will be men amongst boys with their defensive line up against Memphis’ offensive line.  Take Penn State. 

6* USC/Iowa Bowl *CA$H COW* on USC +2.5 

The Key: I’ll side with USC’s athletes and explosive offense over Iowa’s physicality and poor offense in the Holiday Bowl.  USC is loaded at receiver, and senior WR Michael Pittman will play in this game.  Freshman QB Kedon Slovis is completing 72% of his passes with 28 touchdowns and only 9 interceptions.  Slovis threw for over 400 yards in each of his final 3 games to close out the season with 12 touchdowns and only 1 pick.  He faced 2 great defenses too in ASU and Cal.  Iowa hasn’t faced an offense as good as USC all season.  And I don’t think the Hawkeyes can keep up if they get behind.  Iowa is averaging just 19 PPG in their final 8 games this year.  The underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 Holiday Bowls.  Clay Helton has retained his job and offensive coordinator Graham Harrell will stay, giving USC some continuity and some motivation to build for next year.  Helton is 9-2 ATS after gaining 525 or more yards last game as the coach of USC.  Take USC. 

7* Michigan State/Wake Forest Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on Michigan State -3.5 

The Key: It could be Mark Dantonio’s final game at Michigan State.  The Spartans won their final 2 games to make a bowl game, so they clearly want to be here.  Michigan State played a much tougher schedule than Wake Forest with all 6 losses coming to bowl teams.  Their schedule ranked 34th while Wake played the 69th schedule.  Wake has lost 3 of its last 4 games and a big part of that is losing WR Sage Surratt to injury.  Surratt had 66 receptions for 1,001 yards and 11 touchdowns in 9 games this year.  Michigan State will win the battle of the line of scrimmage on both sides and that will be key to victory.  Big Ten teams are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS against ACC teams in the Pinstripe Bowl.  Bets on teams who have been beaten by the spread by 49 or more points in their last 5 games in December games are 44-18 ATS since 1992.  Take Michigan State. 

7* Eastern Michigan/Pitt Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on Eastern Michigan +13 

The Key: The Pitt Panthers are 7-5 this year, but all 7 wins have come by 10 points or less. That’s a 12-0 angle supporting the Eastern Michigan Eagles with this 13-point spread.  Pitt doesn’t have a good enough offense to put away Eastern Michigan.  The Panthers are scoring just 20.1 PPG on the season and 18.0 PPG in road games.  I’d argue EMU has the better offense.  The Eagles are scoring 29.1 PPG and they throw for 280 yards per game as QB Mike Glass is certainly an underrated signal caller.  The Eagles are 21-7 ATS in their lsat 28 games as an underdog.  Eastern Michigan is 17-5 ATS in its last 22 non-conference games.  Take Eastern Michigan. 

7* BYU/Hawaii Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on BYU -2 

The Key: BYU played a tougher schedule than Hawaii and I trust them more to win this game from what I’ve seen from both teams.  BYU went 2-2 against Top 30 teams with wins over USC and Boise State, while Hawaii went 0-3 against Top 30 teams.  BYU also beat Tennessee on the road and thumped Utah State 42-14 on the road.  That’s a Utah State team that is probably just as good as Hawaii in the Mountain West.  Hawaii is 1-9 ATS off a road loss over the last 3 years.  Nick Rolovich is 0-7 ATS off a conference road loss as the coach of Hawaii.  Take BYU. 

7* Packers/Vikings NFC North *HEAVY HITTER* on Minnesota -4.5 

The Key: The numbers show the Vikings are the better team than the Packers despite having the worse record.  Well, the Vikings can pull even with the Packers for 1st place in the NFC North with a win.  They would still need some help next week, but first things first, and I think they handle their business at home tonight.  The Packers are 21st in offense while the Vikings are 10th in offense.  The Packers are 22nd in defense and the Vikings are 14th in defense.  The Vikings have outscored the opposition by 119 points this year, while the Packers have only outscored their opponents by 47 points.  Minnesota is 36-15-1 ATS in its last 52 home games and 22-8 ATS in its last 30 games as a home favorite of 7 or less.  The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 matchups.  Take Minnesota. 

7* AFC West Game of the Year on Oakland Raiders +7.5 

The Key: The Chargers can’t be trusted to lay 7.5 points to the Raiders.  The Chargers aren’t a team that wins or loses many blowouts.  Though they did get worked 10-39 by the Vikings last week.  The Raiders had a bad loss to the Jaguars that they deserved to win.  But that has gotten us some extra value on them this week.  The Chargers have zero home-field advantage and I wouldn’t be surprised at all if the Raiders have more fans attend this game.  The Chargers are 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 home games.  Los Angeles is 0-5-1 ATS in its last 6 games as a home favorite.  The Raiders are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 trips to Los Angeles.  The underdog is 16-5 ATS in the last 21 meetings.  Take Oakland. 

6* NFL Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Jacksonville Jaguars +7.5 

The Key: The Falcons are off a massive upset win as 10-point dogs at San Francisco.  This is an obvious letdown spot for them now as they return home to host the Jaguars.  The Falcons have been awful at home this season.  They are just 2-5 at home this year.  The Jaguars showed some fight in coming back from a 16-3 deficit to beat the Raiders last week.  They clearly have not quit.  And now that the hated Tom Coughlin was just fired, players can breathe a sigh of relief.  I look for a great effort from them today.  Jacksonville gets back leading receiver DJ Chark from injury this week to help out the offense.  Atlanta has lost 7 straight and 12 of its last 13 to AFC opponents.  The Falcons are 0-14 ATS in their last 14 against AFC foes.  Take Jacksonville. 

6* Sunday NFL *Total* Annihilator on Panthers/Colts OVER 46.5 

The Key: Two teams who have been eliminated from the playoffs square off today in Indianapolis.  I don’t think the defenses of either of these teams will be too interested.  And the injuries to both defenses favors the OVER.  The Colts are missing potential 3 starters in the secondary.  The Panthers are missing a handful of guys along their front 7.  The Panthers have allowed 29 or more points in 5 straight games.  Carolina will let rookie Will Grier throw the ball as much as possible in this game to see what he can do, which also favors the OVER.  Carolina is 10-2 OVER in games played on turf over the last 3 years and 36-14-1 in the last 51 games on turf.  The OVER is 21-8 in Panthers last 29 games as a road dog.  Take the OVER. 

6* UAB/Appalachian State Bowl *BAILOUT* on Appalachian State -17 

The Key: Appalachian State went 12-1 this season and lost their head coach for a 2nd straight year.  Last year they went on to beat Middle Tennessee 45-13 after losing head coach Scott Satterfield to Louisville.  And now they will crush this UAB team.  UAB was blasted 6-49 by FAU in the C-USA title game.  They were also blasted by Tennessee and Southern Miss earlier this year.  Their only wins came against bad teams as they played the 138th-ranked schedule in the country.  App State is outscoring opponents by 19.2 PPG on the year, so they have no problem winning by margin.  Sun Belt teams are 11-3 ATS in the New Orleans Bowl since 2005.  Take Appalachian State. 

7* Rams/49ers NFC West *HEAVY HITTER* on San Francisco -6.5 

The Key: The Rams lost all hope of making the playoffs last week with their 44-21 loss to the Cowboys.  Now they’ll be officially eliminated after getting blasted by the 49ers for a 2nd time this year.  The 49ers won 20-7 on the road and held the Rams to just 165 total yards.  Now they’ll win by more than a touchdown at home today.  The 49ers will be hungry after their upset loss to the Falcons last week, which was predictable given the spot off 3 straight huge games and with the Rams and Seahawks on deck.  Now the 49ers can’t afford a loss if they want to get the #1 seed in the NFC.  Take San Francisco. 

6* Bills/Patriots AFC East *Total* Annihilator on OVER 37 

The Key: This is a sneaky good OVER bet with a very low total of 37 points.  It’s sneaky because you wouldn’t think it, but both Buffalo and New England have been pushing the pace offensively.  The Patriots are 1st in the NFL since Week 10 in amount of seconds between snaps, playing faster than anyone.  They will use some no-huddle here to try and negate Buffalo’s pass rush.  Buffalo is 7th in the NFL in offensive pace since Week 10, which coincided with OC Dabol moving to the booth to call plays.  My math model shows 42 points in this game, giving us 5 points of value on the OVER.  Take the OVER. 

7* Kent State/Utah State ESPN 2 Friday Night Lights on Kent State +7 

The Key: Teams that had 3 or fewer wins the previous season and made a bowl game have gone 16-2 ATS in their bowl games over the last 3 years.  Kent State is a qualifier.  The Golden Flashes overcame the odds and pulled out 3 straight upsets to close the season to get to 6-6.  They obviously want to be here.  I don’t think the same can be said for Utah State, which won 11 games last year and dropped to 7 wins this year.  6-6 teams in general have gone 60% ATS since 2000 in bowls and 6-6 teams off a win as an underdog have gone 70% ATS since 2000.  Take Kent State. 

7* Colts/Saints NFL *HEAVY HITTER* on Indianapolis +10 

The Key: The Indianapolis Colts don’t get blown out often.  They are still alive for the playoffs and will give the Saints all they can handle.  The Colts are 6-7 but only have one loss by more than 7 points this year, which was their 14-point loss to the Titans a few weeks back in a game they dominated up until having a blocked FG returned for a TD.  The Saints already have the NFC South title locked up and won’t be all that hungry here to finish the season.  Bets against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points who have won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games that win 75% or more of their games in the 2nd half of the season are 34-12 ATS over the last 5 years. Take Indianapolis. 

6* Bills/Steelers AFC *BAILOUT* on Pittsburgh PK 

The Key: This play falls into an angle that I’m going to back this week in 3 games I like anyway.  When the line is between the 3’s, we’ll back a team off a SU & ATS win against a team off a SU & ATS loss.  This system has gone 22-4 ATS over the last 2 years.  Take Pittsburgh. 

6* Rams/Cowboys NFC *CA$H COW* on Los Angeles  +1

The Key: This play falls into an angle that I’m going to back this week in 3 games I like anyway.  When the line is between the 3’s, we’ll back a team off a SU & ATS win against a team off a SU & ATS loss.  This system has gone 22-4 ATS over the last 2 years.  Take Los Angeles. 

7* AFC South Game of the Year on Tennessee Titans -3 

The Key: This play falls into an angle that I’m going to back this week in 3 games I like anyway.  When the line is between the 3’s, we’ll back a team off a SU & ATS win against a team off a SU & ATS loss.  This system has gone 22-4 ATS over the last 2 years.  Take Tennessee. 

7* Jets/Ravens AFC *HEAVY HITTER* on New York +17 

The Key: The New York Jets have won 4 of their last 5 games and should not be catching 17 points against the Baltimore Ravens.  This is a good matchup for the Jets, who lead the NFL in giving up just 3.0 YPC and only 78.8 RYPG.  The Ravens lead the league in rushing, so it is strength against strength.  And the Jets get a hobbled Lamar Jackson who is nursing a quad injury, so the Ravens won’t be as potent as they have been in the past.  The 49ers held them to 20 points and the Bills held them to 24 points while both teams held them to near season lows in yardage.  The Jets will have success defensively against them, and Sam Darnold is playing some of the best football of his career during this 4-1 stretch.  Take New York. 

7* Giants/Eagles NFC East *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 45.5 

The Key: Weather is expected to be a factor in Philadelphia tonight in this NFC East rivalry game with the New York Giants.  There is a good chance for rain and winds will be around 13 miles per hour.  The Giants will be more restricted offensively with Eli Manning returning to the lineup in place of Daniel Jones.  This Giants defense is playing better of late in giving up just 294 yards to the Jets, 335 yards to the Bears and 322 yards to the Packers in their last 3 games overall.  The Eagles still have an elite defense that has yielded 17 or fewer points in 4 of their last 5 games overall.  They yield just 18 PPG at home this year and score only 21.3 PPG.  The Giants managed just 19.2 PPG on the season.  Philadelphia is 16-4 UNDER in its last 20 games after scoring and allowing 30 points or more last game.  The UNDER is 8-1 in Eagles last 9 games after allowing 6.5 YPP or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Eagles last 6 home games against poor defensive teams that allow 350 YPG or more.  The UNDER is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings in Philadelphia.  Take the UNDER. 

6* Ravens/Bills AFC *CA$H COW* on Buffalo +6.5 

The Key: The Bills have the rest advantage in this one after playing last Thursday while the Ravens just finished a physical game with the 49ers on Sunday.  This line indicates the Bills would be 12.5-point dogs in Baltimore, which is absurd.  The Bills have the #3 defense in the NFL and will be able to slow down the Ravens.  I love the price we are getting with the Bills at home today because the Ravens have won 8 straight coming in.  Bets against road favorites off 8 or more straight wins in December games are 23-4 ATS since 983.  Take Buffalo. 

6* Lions/Vikings NFC North *CA$H COW* on Detroit +13 

The Key: The Lions have the rest advantage after playing last Thursday while the Vikings played in Seattle on Monday.  Despite being 3-8-1 this season, the Lions have held a lead in all 12 games at one point or another. And all 8 of their losses have come by 12 points or less, including 7 by 8 points or fewer.  They will not be losing a game by 13-plus points for the first time all season Sunday.  I was impressed with David Blough and this extra practice time will get him ready for the Vikings.  Minnesota is still going to be without Adam Thielen, plus the other 2 top weapons on this team in Dalvin Cook and Stefon Diggs are banged up.  Bets on road teams who have failed to cover the spread in 3 of their last 4 games in December games are 42-16 ATS over the last 5 years.  Take Detroit. 

7* 49ers/Saints NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on San Francisco +2.5 

The Key: The 49ers are the better team in this matchup with the Saints and the numbers show it.  Wrong team favored here.  The 49ers are outgaining opponents by 127 YPG, while the Saints are only outgaining opponents by 38 YPG.  The 49ers rank 1st in the NFL in total defense and 1st in the NFL against the pass.  They have a dominant defensive line that will give the Saints’ banged-up offensive line troubles.  The Saints are without 2 starters on the O-Line and could be without a 3rd.  That’s not what you want when you’re up against the best defensive line in the NFL.  The 49ers are 5-1 on the road this year with their only loss coming at Baltimore by 3 points.  That effort showed they could play with anyone.  I like that the 49ers stayed in Florida after the Ravens game so they won’t have all that travel in between games.  When teams meet at a location to get ready for a game the next week, they usually come out and play well.  The Saints are 0-6 ATS in home games off a division game over the last 3 years.  Bets on road dogs off a close road loss by 3 points or less in the final 4 weeks of the regular season are 23-5 ATS since 1983.  Take San Francisco. 

6* Hawaii/Boise State MWC *CA$H COW* on Hawaii +14 

The Key: This is a rematch from an earlier meeting this season.  Hawaii lost 37-59 at Boise State.  But that game was much closer than the final score as Hawaii was only outgained by 80 yards.  The Warriors gave the game away by losing the turnover battle 4-1 and losing three fumbles.  That’s very unlikely to happen again.  The Warriors have been lacking respect most the season and can cap off a 10-win season here with a victory.  They will give Boise State everything they can handle.  And fortunately for Hawaii, the weather is expected to be perfect in Boise with temps close to 50 and no precipitation.  Bets on dogs of 10.5 to 21 points who are revenging a loss with 4-plus more total starters and an experienced QB returning against a team with a new QB are 41-13 ATS since 1992.  Take Hawaii. 

7* Cincinnati/Memphis AAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Cincinnati +9.5 

The Key: The Cincinnati Bearcats and Memphis Tigers are in rare air here.  It’s only the 4th time in the playoff era that teams square off in the final week of the regular season and again in the conference championship game.  The underdogs in this situation have gone 3-0 ATS in the previous 3 tries.  And I expect that trend to continue here as Cincinnati keeps it close and covers this 9.5-point spread.  Cincinnati only lost 24-34 in their first meeting at Memphis last week.  But that game was closer than the final score as the Bearcats lost the turnover battle 3-1.  And now after playing a backup QB last week, the Bearcats get their starter back this week in Desmond Ridder.  The Tigers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 December games.  Take Cincinnati. 

6* Saturday NCAAF *Total* Annihilator on LA-Lafayette/App State UNDER 58 

The Key: Lafayette and Appalachian State are in rare air here.  They will meet for the 4th time in 2 seasons after meeting in the regular season and the conference title game last year.  They also met in the regular season and will meet in the conference title game this year.  They have combined for just 44, 49 and 24 points in the previous 3 meetings, including that 24-point effort in their first meeting this year.  That’s an average of only 39 combined points per game.  I think the price is right to pull the trigger on the UNDER in this 4th matchup because of the familiarity of these two teams.  Lafayette is 9-1 UNDER in its last 10 games against teams that put up 31 or more points per game.  Take the UNDER. 

7* Oregon/Utah NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Oregon +7 

The Key: This number has been adjusted too much in Utah’s favor based on the fact that they need to win to get into the four-team playoff.  They haven’t been in very many of these National TV games this season, and it’s a lot of pressure on them.  There is zero pressure on Oregon because they will likely be going to the Rose Bowl win or lose.  I’ll side with the loose, free-rolling Ducks in this game tonight catching a touchdown.  Oregon is 44-14 ATS in its lsat 58 games after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game.  This is an elite Oregon defense and the best defense that Utah has faced yet.  It’s going to be an ugly, low-scoring game with some bad weather, which favors the underdog.  The Ducks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games off an ATS loss.  Take Oregon. 

7* Cowboys/Bears NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Dallas -3 

The Key: The Dallas Cowboys are 1st in the NFL in offense and 8th in defense.  They sit at 6-6, but they are a sleeping giant because of their record.  They are way better than they’ve shown record-wise, and I think that comes to fruition tonight as the Cowboys blast the Bears.  This is a Bears team that has struggled to put away the Giants and the Lions the last two weeks.  And now they’ll meet their match in the Cowboys here tonight.  The Bears are 29th in offense and 7th in defense.  Their offense just cannot be trusted.  Chicago is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games overall.  The Bears are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games after yielding 350-plus yard in their previous game.  Take Dallas. 

7* Vikings/Seahawks NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Minnesota +3 

The Key: The Minnesota Vikings are the better team in this matchup with the Seahawks and should not be underdogs.  The Vikings have won 6 of their last 7 and 6 of their 8 wins this year have come by at least 10 points, so they haven’t been getting lucky in close games like the Seahawks.  The Seahawks are 9-2 this year but 8 of those wins have come by one score.  They are 8-1 in one-score games this year, which is hard to keep up.  Mike Zimmer has 2 weeks to get ready for Russell Wilson as the Vikings are coming off their bye week.  Wilson has only averaged 161 passing yards per game in his 3 lifetime starts against Zimmer’s Vikings.    The Seahawks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games.  Their 3 home wins this year have come by 1, 1 and 6 points with that 6-point win coming in overtime over the Bucs.  Take Minnesota. 

7* Pats/Texans AFC *BAILOUT* on OVER 46 

The Key: The Patriots will finally get their offense going this week after three straight weeks against good defenses in the Ravens, Eagles and Cowboys.  Not to mention the Eagles and Cowboys games were played in terrible weather.  It will be perfect conditions in Houston tonight for a high-scoring affair.  The Patriots have a good chance of getting both Sanu and Dorsett back at receiver after both players missed last week.  And the Texans have one fo the best offenses in the NFL when Will Fuller is healthy, which he is.  They basically have two #1 WR’s who are tough to tame.  Houston is 18-6 OVER in its last 24 games off 3 consecutive under.  The Texans are 30-15 OVER in their last 45 games as a home dog of 7 points or less.  The OVER is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings.  Take the OVER. 

6* Packers/Giants NFC *CA$H COW* on New York +7 

The Key: Daniel Jones is proving to the Giants that their move to get him in the 1st round was warranted.  He has played well and has kept the Giants competitive in most games.  Jones should dice up a Packers defense that just gave up 37 points to the 49ers last week.  The Packers have one of the worst defenses in the NFL.  They are 28th in total defense in allowing 380.5 YPG with only the Lions, Dolphins, Cardinals and Bengals being worse.  It’s hard to ask them to go on the road and win by more than 7 points with such a bad defense. The Giants are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games against teams that commit one or fewer turnovers per game in the 2nd half of the season.  The Giants are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.  Take New York. 

6* 49ers/Ravens Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on San Francisco +6 

The Key: If there’s one team that can tame the Ravens, it’s certainly the San Francisco 49ers.  That’s because they have the top-ranked defense in the NFL.  The 49ers only allow 248 YPG on the year.  Their offense is clicking after scoring 37 points on the Packers last week and getting both Emanuel Sanders and George Kittle back from injury recently.  The Ravens are working on a short week after beating the Rams on Monday Night Football.  The 49ers will have the edge in rest and preparation as a result.  Baltimore is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 home games off a Monday Night game.  The Ravens are only 3-9 ATS in their last 12 home games overall.  Take San Francisco. 

6* Mountain West *CA$H COW* on San Jose State +2.5 

The Key: Fresno State won the Mountain West last year but lost almost everyone from that team and have had a disappointing 4-7 season.  Now they won’t be going to a bowl and look like they may have quit because they aren’t playing for anything.  They have lost 3 straight coming in.  Their only 4 wins this year came against Sacramento State by 14, New Mexico State by 13, UNLV and Hawaii by 3.  They have beaten some bad teams outside of Hawaii.  San Jose State is one of the most improved teams in the country.  They have 5 losses by 10 points or less including losses to bowl teams in Nevada by 3, SDSU by 10, Boise by 10 and Hawaii by 2.  They have proven they can play with almost anyone in the conference.  They will want to go out a winner on Senior Night here and cap off a nice season.  San Jose State is 8-1 ATS against good offensive teams averaging 5.9 YPP or more over the last 2 years.  Fresno is 6-18 ATS in its last 24 road games off a home loss.  Take San Jose State. 

7* NCAA Football Game of the Year on Florida Atlantic -9 

The Key: The FAU Owls would clinch Conference USA’s East division with a win Saturday over Southern Miss.  They will be hungry and will show up on Senior Day.  I question Southern Miss’ motivation after losing 10-28 at home to Western Kentucky last week.  Losing that game meant they don’t control their own destiny now.  They lost to LA Tech and LA Tech hosts UTSA as a 20.5-point favorite this week.  There’s almost zero chance for the Golden Eagles to win the West Division now.  I think they suffer a hangover from that loss.  Plus, the Golden Eagles lost QB Jack Abraham to a leg injury in that game against Western Kentucky and he’s highly questionable to return this week.  He means everything to their team.  FAU is 9-1 ATS against teams that complete 62% or more of their passes over the last 3 years.  Take Florida Atlantic. 

6* Conference USA *CA$H COW* on Western Kentucky -9 

The Key: The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers should be more than 9-point home favorites over the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders today.  WKU is coming off two straight impressive upsets with a 28-10 win at Southern Miss and a 45-19 win at Arkansas.  They are 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS in conference play this year with their only losses coming to FAU by 11 and Marshall by 3, two of the best teams in the conference.  Middle Tennessee is 0-5 on the road this season and losing by 19.2 PPG.  The Blue Raiders are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 against a team with a winning record.  The Hilltoppers are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 conference games.  The Hilltoppers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 against a team with a losing record.  Take Western Kentucky. 

7* Sun Belt Game of the Year on South Alabama +11 

The Key: Arkansas State has been eliminated from Sun Belt title contention.  And they have won a lot of close games here of late that has them getting too much respect from the books.  Their last 3 wins have come by 1, 5 and 7 points.  And I think this game against South Alabama goes down to the wire.  South Alabama only lost by 10 at home to LA-Lafayette 2 weeks ago, which is the best team in the Sun Belt alongside Appalachian State.  They only lost by 2 to Texas State and by 13 to Georgia State in their last 2 road games.  They are back home here where they have been very competitive with a 3-point loss to Georgia Southern as 10-point dogs as well.  South Alabama upset Arkansas State 24-19 as 13-point home dogs 2 years ago.  The Jaguars will look at this game as their Super Bowl on Senior Day.  The Jaguars are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games against a team with a winning record.  The Red Wolves are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS win.  Take South Alabama. 

7* Saints/Falcons NFC South *HEAVY HITTER* on Atlanta +7 

The Key: The Atlanta Falcons will show up today against the New Orleans Saints.  They hate the Saints more than any other team in the NFL.  And they just beat New Orleans a few weeks back 26-9 on the road as 14-point dogs.  Now the Falcons are at home catching 7 points.  The Falcons are 11-0 ATS in their last 11 home meetings with the Saints with a spread of +7.  They haven’t lost by more than 6 points to the Saints at home since 2007.  Take Atlanta. 

6* Bills/Cowboys Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Buffalo +7 

The Key: The Buffalo Bills are 8-3 this season and have just one loss by more than 6 points.  That means they’d be 10-1 ATS in all games with a line of +7 for them.  I believe the Bills are one of the best teams in the NFL, but they don’t get the credit that other teams do.  The Cowboys are in a tough spot after a physical, rainy game against the Patriots on Sunday in a late-afternoon game.  Now they have to come back and play on a short week after facing the defending champion Patriots.  I usually like fading teams after playing the Patriots because it’s always a letdown spot.  And that’s the case here.  The Bills are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 road games.  The Cowboys are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 against a team with a winning record.  Take Buffalo. 

7* Western Michigan/NIU MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Western Michigan -8.5 

The Key: I like the situation for Western Michigan tonight.  The Broncos need a win to clinch a trip to the MAC title game.  They are coming off a bye week, so they’ve had 2 full weeks to get ready for Northern Illinois.  And they’re facing an NIU team that just suffered their 7th loss last Thursday in a 17-45 setback to Eastern Michigan at home.  They won’t be going to a bowl game now, and they won’t be very hungry tonight because of it.  NIU is 0-6 ATS in home games against good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better over the last 3 years.  The Huskies are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 home games against a team with a winning record.  Take Western Michigan.

7* Ravens/Rams NFL *Total* Annihilator on OVER 47 

The Key: I like the OVER quite a bit tonight.  The Ravens are scoring 34.1 PPG this season and can take care of most of this OVER on their own.  The Rams get both Robert Woods and Brandon Cooks back at receiver this week after both missed last week.  The Rams are scary offensively when they have Woods, Cooks, Kupp and Gurley all healthy at the same time.  Bets on the OVER on road teams with a total of 42.5 to 49 who are good teams that outscore opponents by 4 PPG or more when allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game are 72-31 over the last 10 years.  Take the OVER.

6* Bucs/Falcons NFC South *CA$H COW* on Atlanta -3.5 

The Key: No team has been more impressive than the Falcons in the 2nd half of the season this year.  They came out of their bye and promptly upset the Saints 26-9 as 14-point road dogs.  They proved it was no fluke by following it up with a 29-3 win at Carolina as 4.5-point dogs.  And now they are home only laying 3.5 points against a bad Tampa Bay team that can’t seem to get out of their own way.  The Bucs are 1-5 SU & 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games overall.  Jameis Winston cannot be trusted to not turn the ball over.  The Bucs have committed 19 turnovers in their last 5 games overall, which is absolutely atrocious.  Winston will likely continue giving the ball to the Falcons today, an improved Atlanta defense that has allowed just 12 points total the last 2 weeks combined.  Take Atlanta. 

6* Steelers/Bengals AFC North *CA$H COW* on Cincinnati +6.5 

The Key: The Steelers are a mash unit offensively right now.  I just don’t see them being able to score many points against the Bengals today considering they are without starting C Maurkice Pouncey, RB James Conner and WR JuJu Smith-Schuster.  Those are arguably their 3 best players on offense.  The Bengals showed some fight last week in Oakland and only lost by 7.  They will certainly show some fight against a division rival in the Steelers this week, and there’s no doubt they want to end this losing streak against them.  The Steelers only managed 7 points against the Browns last week and committed 4 turnovers.  They’ll continue to struggle to move the football and score points this week.  Take Cincinnati. 

7* AFC Game of the Month on Cleveland Browns -10.5 

The Key: The Browns played the toughest schedule in the entire NFL in the first half of the season.  Now the schedule has eased up, and the Browns have taken advantage.  After beating a good Bills team 19-16 at home, the Browns crushed the Steelers 21-7 last Thursday.  Now the Browns have had extra time to get ready for the Dolphins and are primed for one of their best games of the season.  The Dolphins have injuries all over their defense, especially in the secondary.  The Browns should take advantage and have one of their best offensive outputs of the year.  Cleveland has Kareem Hunt playing now and forming a dynamic 1-2 punch with Nick Chubb.  The Dolphins gave up 37 points to a bad Bills offense last week.  The Dolphins are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 after having won 2 of their last 3 games coming in.  Miami is 1-8 ATS in road games off one or more consecutive ATS losses over the last 3 years.  Take Cleveland. 

7* Pac-12 Game of the Month on UCLA +14 

The Key: UCLA is playing well in the 2nd half of the season once again this year.  The Bruins have gone 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last 4 games overall with 3 double-digit wins over Stanford, ASU and Colorado.  They did lose badly to Utah on the road last week, but that was due to committing 5 turnovers and not cashing in any red zone trips, and they had a bunch of them.  They will be able to move the ball much more effectively and score points on this soft USC defense.  UCLA has played USC tough the last 2 years, upsetting the Trojans as 3-point home dogs last year and only losing by 5 as nearly identical 14.5-point dogs in 2017.  USC is 2-10 ATS off 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 years.  Take UCLA. 

6* Texas A&M/Georgia SEC *CA$H COW* on Texas A&M +13 

The Key: Georgia feels like it cleared its final hurdle last week with a huge 21-14 win at Auburn that clinched the SEC East.  And now I think they won’t be giving Texas A&M the attention they deserve this week.  Texas A&M is more than capable of coming into Georgia and giving the Bulldogs a game.  The Aggies are the fresher team after having a bye 2 weeks ago.  They have been blowing out teams in the 2nd half of the season with a 19-point win over Mississippi State, a 31-point win over UTSA and a 24-point win over South Carolina in their last 3 games coming in.  Georgia is coming off that physical game at Auburn and there’s no question the Aggies will be the fresher team.  Jimbo Fisher is 6-0 ATS after allowing 75 or fewer rushing yards as the coach of Texas A&M.  Fisher is 10-2 ATS against good defensive teams that allow 285 yards per game or fewer in all games as a coach.  Georgia is 0-8 ATS in its last 8 home games off 3 or more consecutive ATS wins.  Take Texas A&M. 

6* NCAAF Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on UMass +40.5 

The Key: BYU clinched a bowl last week with a 42-10 win over Idaho State as 33.5-point favorites.  They had a chance to punch it in from the 1-yard line and took a knee.  And I think they will show similar mercy to 1-10 UMass this week.  This is the final game of the season for UMass, so we should be getting their best effort.  They actually played Northwestern a lot tougher than the 6-45 final showed last week.  They were only outgained by 100 yards by the Wildcats and managed 310 total yards.  Look for BYU to run, run and run some more in the 2nd half to try and get this game over with.  It will favor UMass staying within the number.  Take UMass. 

7* Colts/Texans AFC South *HEAVY HITTER* on Indianapolis +3.5 

The Key: The Colts will win the battle in the trenches on both sides of the football.  That’s why I trust them more than the Texans.  They have by far the better defense, and by far the better offensive line.  The Colts rushed for 264 yards in their 33-13 win over the Jaguars last week.  The Texans gave up 263 rushing yards in their 7-41 loss to the Ravens and managed just 232 total yards on offense.  Deshaun Watson was sacked 7 times as his offensive line continues to struggle.  And not having JJ Watt makes Houston’s defense one of the worst in the NFL.  The Colts are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 against winning teams, while the Texans are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 against winning teams.  The Colts are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings in Houston.  Take Indianapolis. 

6* Toledo/Buffalo MAC *Total* Annihilator on OVER 54 

The Key: The OVER is 4-0 in Toledo’s last 4 games with combined scores of 66, 71, 68 and 59 points.  I think this total of 54 has been set too low.  The OVER is 3-0 in Buffalo’s last 3 games with combined scores of 63, 57 and 57 points.  Buffalo is 8-1 OVER as a home favorite over the last 3 years.  The OVER is 4-1 in Rockets last 5 road games.  The OVER is 7-0-1 in Bulls last 8 games against a team with a winning record.  Take the OVER. 

6* Ohio/Bowling Green MAC *Total* Annihilator on OVER 55 

The Key: Bowling Green has one of the worst defenses in the country.  They give up 34.8 PPG and just gave up 44 points last week to a mediocre Miami Ohio offense.  Ohio has a good offense that averages 31.8 PPG in MAC play and will hang a big number on them as well.  But I look for Bowling Green’s offense to have much better success against Ohio’s soft defense than they did against Miami Ohio last week.  Ohio allows 29.7 PPG and 432.6 YPG on the year.  Ohio is 7-0 OVER against awful pass defenses that allow a completion percentage of 62% or higher over the last 3 years.  The OVER is 5-1 in Bobcats last 6 games off a loss.  Take the OVER. 

7* Chiefs/Chargers MNF *Total* Annihilator on OVER 52 

The Key: The altitude in Mexico City will take its toll on both defenses in the second half of this game.  I look for both offenses to score at will after intermission.  The Chiefs got Patrick Mahomes back last week and he showed no signs of rust as the Chiefs racked up 530 total yards including 433 passing in their 32-35 loss to the Titans.  Clearly the offense was not the problem, but they still have a soft defense that yields 370 YPG.  The Chargers have gotten healthier on offense with the returns of Hunter Henry and Melvin Gordon recently.  They are more potent now and put up 26 points on the Packers and 24 on the Raiders and probably should have scored more on Oakland but committed 3 turnovers.  Both meetings last year went OVER the total with 66 and 57 combined points in them.  The Chiefs and Chargers should have no problem combining for 52-plus in their first meeting of 2019.  The Chiefs are 6-0 OVER in road games after gaining 400 or more YPG in their last 3 games over the last 3 years.  The Chiefs are 8-1 OVER against good passing teams that average 7 YPA or more over the last 2 years.  The OVER is 9-1 in Chiefs last 10 games after gaining 350 or more yards in their last game.  Take the OVER. 

6* Cardinals/49ers NFC West *CA$H COW* on Arizona +10 

The Key: The 49ers are a mash unit right now.  They are without George Kittle and Emmanuel Sanders.  We saw how they fell apart against Seattle on Monday after Sanders went out with injury.  They are without RB Matt Breida, and fellow RB’s Tevin Coleman and Raheem Mostert are both questionable.  Not to mention the 49ers have injuries all over their offensive line.  I foresee Jimmy G struggling again without all his weapons.  The Cardinals sped up their offense in their 25-28 loss to the 49ers a few weeks ago and had success.  Look for them to go no huddle earlier in this game and find more success against the 49ers.  The Cardinals are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.  The Cardinals are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games after yielding 6.0 YPP or more in their previous game.  Take Arizona. 

6* NFL Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Denver Broncos +10.5 

The Key: The Denver Broncos are in a good spot today coming off their bye week.  The Vikings are in a bad spot coming off a huge win on Sunday Night Football over the Cowboys.  They could let down here pretty easily.  The Broncos are better than their 3-6 record.  Only 2 of their losses have come by double-digits, and one was an 11-point loss.  So they have only really been blown out once all season, and that was by the Chiefs.  I don’t think Brandon Allen is much of a downgrade at all from Joe Flacco.  And I like that he has had 2 weeks to run with the first-team offense and prepare to face Minnesota.  But the reason the Broncos can keep this close is their defense.  They are 4th in the NFL in total defense and 6th in scoring defense, yielding just 18.9 PPG and 309.7 YPG.  They rank 9th in giving up just 4.0 YPC on the ground, so they will be able to slow down Dalvin Cook.  The Broncos are 19-6 ATS in their last 25 games off bye week.  Take Denver. 

7* AFC East Game of the Month on Miami Dolphins +7 

The Key: The Dolphins outgained the Bills 381 to 305 in their first meeting this season just a few weeks ago.  But the Dolphins lost that game 21-31 in a very misleading final.  The Dolphins covered the spread in that game and they are now 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall.  Now the Dolphins are getting 7 points in the rematch at home and will be out for revenge.  The Bills are not as good as their record and have feasted on some bad teams this year.  I can’t remember the last time they were laying a touchdown on the road.  Nobody seems to want to buy into the Dolphins which is why they have gone 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games.  And they’re not buying into them this week either.  We’ll go contrarian and back the Dolphins.  The Bills are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 road games against a team with a losing home record.  Take Miami. 

7* Minnesota/Iowa Big Ten *HEAVY HITTER* on Minnesota +3 

The Key: The Minnesota Golden Gophers won’t have a letdown off their biggest win perhaps in program history over Penn State.  There is a lot more on the line than a win over Penn State.  Minnesota is basically assured of a Big Ten West title if they beat Iowa this week.  And they have a chance to make the four-team playoff if they go undefeated.  So everyone that talks about how the Gophers are going to have a letdown is dead wrong.  PJ Fleck went on the playoff show on Tuesday and said they hadn’t won at Kinnick Stadium since 1999, which was Kirk Ferentz’s first season with the Hawkeyes.  That’s 20 years.  If that’s not enough motivation, I don’t know what is.  Of course, Minnesota has a better team this year than they’ve had in the last 20 years, so that stat is pretty irrelevant.  The Gophers were never 9-0 going into the Iowa game before.  I realize the Gophers struggled in non-conference play to put away teams, but no team in the country has improved as much as them in conference play.  Not only are the Gophers winning, they are dominating.  They are 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in conference play winning by 23.2 PPG.  The Penn State game was the only one decided by less than 7 points, and they were up 24-10 in that game before the Nittany Lions expectedly made a little comeback.  The Gophers never trailed in that game so it wasn’t a fluke.  PJ Fleck is clearly one of the best head coaches in the country with leading Western Michigan to an unbeaten season until the narrow bowl loss to Wisconsin.  And now he’s taken Minnesota to 9-0.  He knows what buttons to push, and there’s plenty for him to push this week, including the underdog and disrespect cards.  Take Minnesota. 

6* Mountain West *CA$H COW* Utah State -4.5 

The Key: The Utah State Aggies have one of the best quarterbacks in the country.  That has helped them mask some other problems they’ve had when it comes to living up to expectations they created for themselves last year.  Despite the massive respect they’ve gained from their efforts last season, they’ve still managed to exceed expectations this year.  They are 5-4 ATS and coming off a 37-35 road win over Fresno State as 5-point dogs.  They racked up 525 yards on a solid Fresno State defense a week after gaining 521 yards on a good BYU defense.  That was one of the most misleading finals this season as Utah State lost 14-42 due to 5 turnovers.  The only games they really weren’t competitive in came on the road against Air Force and LSU, which is understandable seeing what those 2 teams are doing this year.  Wyoming lost a 17-20 heartbreaker at Boise State last week and won’t be recovered in time to face Utah State.  And the Cowboys lost their starting QB in Sean Chambers, who was playing great in leading Wyoming to a 6-2 start.  Chambers has 567 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns this season, and not having that dual-threat element with backup Tyler Vander Waal the rest of the way makes Wyoming very predictable.  Vander Waal was their starting QB last season and they were horrible with him at the helm.  Getting future NFL QB Jordan Love of Utah State as only a 4.5-point home favorite in this matchup with Wyoming’s Vander Waal is a steal.  Take Utah State. 

6* Conference USA *CA$H COW* on UTEP +17.5 

The Key: The UAB Blazers played the easiest schedule in the country en route to their 6-1 start this season.  Their 6 wins came over Alabama State (by 5), Akron (by 11), South Alabama, Rice, UTSA and ODU.  Those games against terrible teams in Alabama State and Akron tell all you need to know about how down UAB is compared to last season when they won Conference USA.  And when they finally stepped up in class this year, they have gotten blown out the last 2 weeks by Tennessee (by 23) and Southern Miss (by 35).  Now UAB is without stud starting QB Tyler Johnson III, who meant everything to their offense.  There’s a reason they only scored 2 points against Southern Miss on a safety without him.  UTEP is good enough to stay within 17 points.  The Miners covered as 13-point dogs in a 21-28 loss to Charlotte last week to prove they have not quit.  UAB’s chances of winning Conference USA are pretty much out the window now that they have have 2 conference losses on the season, so don’t expect them to show up this week.  Take UTEP. 

7* Fresno State/SDSU NCAAF Friday Night Lights on San Diego State -1 

The Key: The San Diego State Aztecs are 7-2 this season and 4-2 in conference play.  That 4-2 record has them in first place alone in the West Division.  They knew they could afford to lose to Nevada last week and that’s exactly what happened.  Now the Aztecs have zero margin for error, and they know they need to handle their business tonight at home against Fresno State.  This is a Fresno State team that is grossly overrated this season due to their ATS success the past 2 seasons.  But they had to replace nearly their entire team this year.  This inexperienced squad has gone 4-5 SU & 3-5-1 ATS this year as a result.  The Bulldogs are once again getting too much respect from oddsmakers tonight in basically a pick ‘em game at SDSU.  Fresno State is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 road games after allowing 525 or more yards last game.  The Bulldogs have allowed 500-plus yards in 3 straight games now to Colorado State, Hawaii and Utah State.  The Aztecs will have one of their best offensive performances of the season tonight against this soft Fresno defense.  And the Aztecs once again have one of the best defenses in the country.  They give up just 14.4 PPG and 277 YPG on the season.  Fresno allows 32.4 PPG this year.  The Aztecs are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 against a team with a losing record.  Take San Diego State. 

7* Steelers/Browns NFL *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 42 

The Key: The UNDER is 6-3 in all Steelers games this season.  The Steelers have a terrible offense and a great defense, which is why they have been an UNDER team.  The Browns have been terrible offensively as well scoring just 19 PPG on the year.  The Steelers are 12-1 UNDER in road games against conference opponents over the last 3 years.  The UNDER is 15-3 in Steelers last 18 road games, and 38-15 in their last 53 road games overall.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Browns last 4 Thursday games.  The UNDER is 17-7-1 in Browns last 25 home games.  Take the UNDER. 

6* UNC/Pitt ACC *CA$H COW* on UNC +4 

The Key: The UNC Tar Heels just have a knack for playing in close games.  Eight of their 9 games have been decided by 7 points or less with the lone exception being their blowout win over a bad Georgia Tech team.  Six of their 9 games have been decided by 4 points or fewer as well, including their one-point loss to Clemson that showed what they are capable of.  Pitt has a poor offense that scores 20.9 PPG this year and it won’t allow them to get margin.  UNC has a good offense at 27.9 PPG and 446 YPG and will be in this game for four quarters.  Pitt is 4-17 ATS in its last 21 off 2 consecutive games where it committed 3 or more turnovers.  The Panthers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games against a team with a losing road record.  The Tar Hills are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.  Take UNC. 

7* Bowling Green/Miami Ohio MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Bowling Green +17.5 

The Key: Bowling Green is still alive for a bowl game and is certainly improved this year.  This is their last stand as 17.5-point dogs to Miami Ohio.  The Falcons are coming off a 35-6 win over Akron and have had 10 days off since that game.  Miami Ohio is only on normal rest after playing and upsetting Ohio 24-21 on the road last Wednesday.  It’s definitely a letdown spot for the Redhawks off that huge win that puts them in the driver’s seat to win their division in the MAC.  Miami hasn’t beaten Bowling Green by more than 15 points in any of the last 9 meetings, which makes for a 9-0 angle backing the Falcons.  The Falcons won 37-29 as 17-point dogs their last trip to Miami in 2017.  Take Bowling Green. 

7* Western Michigan/Ohio MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Ohio +1 

The Key: Western Michigan has already clinched a bowl game at 6-4 on the season.  Ohio is 4-5 on the season and really needs a win here to get to a bowl.  Adding to the motivation for the Bobcats is that this is Senior Night and their final home game.  Their best player in QB Nathan Rourke is a senior, and he has meant so much to this program that you know these players want to get him one final home win.  Western Michigan is 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS on the road this year.  The Broncos should not be favored in this matchup.  The Broncos are 1-10 ATS after playing a home game over the last 2 years.  Western Michigan is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 road games.  The Bobcats are 37-18 ATS in their last 55 against a team with a winning record.  Take Ohio. 

7* Seahawks/49ers NFC West *HEAVY HITTER* on San Francisco -6 

The Key: No analysis Saturday thru Monday.  On vacation. 

6* Vikings/Cowboys NBC *BAILOUT* on Dallas -3 

The Key: No analysis this weekend.  On vacation. 

6* Ravens/Bengals AFC North *CA$H COW* on Cincinnati +10.5 

The Key: No analysis this weekend.  On vacation.