Sports Picks & Predictions

6* Wake Forest/Rice NCAAF *CA$H COW* on Rice +19.5 

The Key: Rice had a great showing in Week 1 and only lost on a last minute touchdown to Army 14-7 as more than three touchdown underdogs.  I like what the new head coach from Stanford is doing with this team, upgrading the offensive line and becoming more physical.  Wake Forest is coming off a last-second win over a Utah State team that lost almost everyone from last year.  The Demon Deacons have their conference opener against UNC on deck and may not be fully focused for this game.  That’s especially the case after blowing out Rice at home last year.  They may not be taking this game serious enough.  Wake Forest is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points.  Rice is 45-25 ATS in its last 70 games as a home underdog.  Take Rice. 

7* Packers/Bears NBC *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 46.5 

The Key: The Bears will once again have one of the best defenses in the NFL.  They didn’t lose much from a unit that gave up just 17.6 PPG last year.  The Packers should be improved defensively this season as they finally spent some money in free agency and loaded up in the early rounds of the draft.  But the Packers could struggle early offensively as they have put in a new system under Matt LeFleur.  Aaron Rodgers didn’t play at all in the preseason and should be rusty.  The Bears were improved offensively last year, but they are still no juggernaut on that side of the ball.  They play to their strengths, which is their defense.  The UNDER is 7-3 in Packers last 10 games overall.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Bears last 5 games overall.  Take the UNDER. 

7* Fresno State/USC ESPN *HEAVY HITTER* on USC -13.5 

The Key: The USC Trojans come into the 2019 season flying under the radar for the first time in a long time.  That’s because they didn’t even make a bowl game last year with a 5-7 record.  But with the talent they recruit, the Trojans won’t be down for long.  They had won double-digit games in the previous two seasons under Clay Helton.  Fresno State has been a good story the last few years, but they lose a ton of talent from those teams.  They only have 9 starters back and are the 2nd-least experienced team in the country this year. USC comes in hungry to get their season off on solid footing and won’t be taking the Bulldogs lightly.  Take USC. 

7* Wisconsin/USF ESPN *HEAVY HITTER* on Wisconsin -10 

The Key: The Wisconsin Badgers are coming off a down year, which for them is 8-5.  They had won 10 or more games in 4 straight years prior.  And they should get back to being their dominant selves this year.  It starts with Week 1 against South Florida, which went 7-6 last year.  The Bulls won their first 7 games against weak competition, then lost their final 6 when they took a step up in class.  This is a step up in class for them as well.  Bets on road favorites of 10 to 21 points who were an excellent rushing team last season averaging 5.25 YPC or more are 26-6 ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Take Wisconsin. 

7* UCLA/Cincinnati ESPN *HEAVY HITTER* on Cincinnati -2 

The Key: The Cincinnati Bearcats went on the road and beat UCLA 26-17 last year as 14-point underdogs.  Now they get them at home in the rematch and it should be more of the same.  This is a Cincinnati team that won 11 games last year and has 14 starters back from that squad, including QB Desmond Ridder and RB Michael Warren, who rushed for 1,329 yards and 19 touchdowns last year.  The Bearcats went 6-0 at home last season and outscored opponents by 30.0 PPG.  Take Cincinnati. 

7* Florida/Miami ESPN *HEAVY HITTER* on Florida -7 

The Key: Dan Mullen turned Mississippi State into an SEC power, which is hard to do.  Then he took a 4-7 Florida team before arriving into a 10-3 team last year that beat Michigan 41-15 in the Peach Bowl.  Mullen is easily a Top 5 coach in the country, and he doesn’t get the respect he deserves.  Now the Gators have 13 returning starters this year with a loaded defense that has 8 starters back.  Having a proven QB in Feleipe Franks and all of his top receivers back from last year plus their leading rusher will help ease the pain of only having 5 returning starters on offense.  I just don’t trust Miami.  They went 7-6 last year and are going through a coaching change with Manny Diaz taking over after accepting the Temple job.  They only have 12 returning starters and will be starting a redshirt freshman quarterback.  Their offense was poor last year and will be again to start, especially facing a defense that caliber of Florida.  Remember last year Miami was dominated 17-33 by LSU in the opener, and they will get a similar fate here against another SEC power in the Gators.  The Hurricanes are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 neutral site games.  The Gators are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games.  Take Florida. 

7* Rams/Patriots Super Bowl *HEAVY HITTER*  on New England -2.5 

The Key: Experience, experience, experience.  The Patriots will be playing in their 9th Super Bowl in the past 19 seasons.  It’s a remarkable feat and will never be matched.  Playing in their 3rd straight Super Bowl, and extra hungry off the loss to the Eagles last year, the Patriots will beat the Rams thanks to their experience in these big games.  I trust Tom Brady over Jared Goff in a big way.  Brady threw for 505 yards and the Patriots didn’t punt once again the Eagles last year, and Brady has been dynamite in the playoffs once again this season.  The Rams have been relying heavily on their running game to take the pressure off of Goff, but you can bet Belichick won’t allow the Rams to run all over them.  They stopped the Chiefs and the Chargers on the ground, and that will be the game plan coming in again.  Goff won’t be able to make enough plays to beat them.  Take New England.

7* Patriots/Chiefs AFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Kansas City -3 

The Key: Home teams have won 10 straight AFC/NFL Championship Games over the past 5 seasons.  The Patriots went just 3-5 on the road this year and only scored 21.6 PPG.  They will be hard-pressed to keep up with Patrick Mahomes and company, who are scoring 35.1 PPG this year.  Tom Brady hasn’t been as efficient since losing Josh Gordon to suspension.  He averages 7.6/attempt with Gordon and 5.6/attempt without hime this year.  This play falls into a system that has been great in the playoffs.  Teams who scored 40 or more points in a win in their last game have gone 5-25-1 ATS in their next 31 playoff games, including 2-11-1 ATS in championship games.  Take Kansas City. 

7* Chargers/Patriots AFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Los Angeles +4 

The Key: You could make the argument that the Chargers are the best team in the NFL.  They are the only team that ranks in the Top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency.  And they won 12 games this season, the same amount the No. 1 seed Kansas City Chiefs did.  And they beat the Chiefs down the stretch.  In fact, the Chargers are 9-1 SU in their 10 road games this season playing their best football away from home.  They have beaten the Chiefs, Steelers, Ravens and Seahawks on the road this year.  The Patriots went just 2-2 SU & 1-3 ATS in their final 4 games despite every game being huge for them in trying to earn a first-round bye.  They are beatable, especially since losing their top big play threat in Josh Gordon recently.  Rob Gronkowski only has 3 TD receptions this season and is really becoming a non-factor as injuries have clearly caught up with him.  The Patriots are beatable, and this is the best chance the Chargers have had to beat them in years. I expect them to capitalize.  Dogs are 14-1 ATS in the last 15 playoff games.  Take Los Angeles. 

7* NFL Playoffs Total of the Year on Colts/Chiefs UNDER 57

The Key: It's expected to snow all day in Kansas City and the winds will be in the double-digit range.  I'm shocked this total hasn't dropped yet, but it will on game day.  Don't wait to get this bet in.  The Colts have a better defense than they get credit for, and the Chiefs should put forth one of their best defensive performances of the season with two weeks to prepare.  Once you see the conditions on the field Saturday you're going to feel very good about having the UNDER in your pocket.  Take the UNDER.

7* Alabama/Clemson *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 58 

The Key: Forecasts are calling for rain in Santa Clara and it’s going to be colder than normal.  It will likely be a sloppy field, which will benefit the UNDER.  Also benefitting the UNDER is that these are two of the best defenses in the country.  The Tigers allow just 12.9 PPG and 275 YPG while the Crimson Tide yield only 16.2 PPG and 308 YPG.  Neither of these offenses have faced a defense as good as the one they will be facing tonight.  Clemson is 9-0 UNDER against good teams who outscore their opponents by 10 or more points per game over the last 2 seasons.  Take the UNDER. 

7* Chargers/Ravens AFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Los Angeles +3 

The Key: The Chargers get the chance to face Lamar Jackson for a 2nd time, the only team in the NFL that gets to claim that.  And facing a strange offense like the one the Ravens run for a 2nd time is a huge advantage.  They actually held Jackson in check in the first meeting, but the offense was the problem as they were held to just 10 points.  Of course, an INT in the end zone and a fumble by Antonio Gates when the Chargers were driving to take the lead didn’t help matters.  They will make the adjustments, and continue their road success this season.  The Chargers are 8-1 on the road this year with wins at Seattle, Kansas City and Pittsburgh.  They have notoriously been a better road team than home team.  That trend continues Sunday.  Take Los Angeles. 

7* Seahawks/Cowboys NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Dallas ML -130 

The Key: The Dallas Cowboys have certainly enjoyed a nice home-field advantage this season.  They are 7-1 SU & 5-2-1 ATS at home this year with their defense only allowing 18.5 PPG and 290.9 YPG.  They are outgaining teams by 73 yards per game at home this year.  The Seahawks only have 3 road wins this year, and two of them came on last second field goals at Arizona and at Carolina.  They also won at Detroit, but they were coming off a bye that week.  Obviously the Cardinals, Panthers and Lions weren’t very good this season, so they really don’t have a good road win this year.  Dallas is good at stopping the run while Seattle is not good at stopping the run.  Whoever wins the line is scrimmage will win this game.  I expect that to be the Cowboys.  Take Dallas. 

7* NCAAF Bowl Game of the Year on Texas +12 

The Key: Tom Herman as an underdog is a scary proposition for opponents.  Herman is 12-2 ATS as a dog in his head coaching career and even better than that dating back to his time as an assistant at Iowa State and Ohio State with something like a 22-2 ATS record as a dog.  Georgia doesn’t want to be here.  The Bulldogs wanted to make the four-team playoff and are very disappointed they didn’t.  They were the final team left out.  Those teams never seem to show up when they were the final team left out, or right on the borderline of making the playoffs.  Texas will be able to hang around because of it.  Take Texas. 

7* Northwestern/Utah NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Northwestern +7 

The Key: Northwestern is relishing this opportunity to be playing in the Holiday Bowl.  I think Utah is the more disappointed team after scoring just 3 points in a loss to Washington that cost them a trip to the Rose Bowl.  Pat Fitzgerald has certainly gotten his team to play well in the underdog role.  Underdogs went 11-1-1 ATS in Northwestern games this season.  Northwestern pulled off 5 outright upsets in 7 tries as an underdogs this season.  And the two losses were to Michigan (by 3) and Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship.  The Wildcats are 6-0 ATS against teams who win 60% to 75% of their games over the last 2 seasons.  Take Northwestern. 

7* Colts/Titans AFC South Game of the Year on Indianapolis -4.5 

The Key: Andrew Luck is 10-0 lifetime against the Tennessee Titans.  Few of these games have even been close, including the 38-10 beat down the Colts laid on the Titans earlier this season.  And I give the Titans almost zero chance of even being competitive in this game Sunday without Marcus Mariota.  The Colts have gone 8-1 in their last 9 games overall and are on a mission to make the playoffs.  They won’t be denied by the Titans tonight.  Take Indianapolis. 

6* Browns/Ravens AFC North *CA$H COW* on Cleveland +7 

The Key: The Cleveland Browns are closing strong.  They have gone 5-1 in their last 6 games overall, the same record as the Ravens in their last 6 games, yet the Browns are 7-point dogs here.  And the Browns will treat this game as their Super Bowl as they can actually finish the season with a winning record with a victory, which would be a major accomplishment.  Baltimore choked at home in a must-win situation against the Bengals in Week 17 last year.  They’ll be hard-pressed to win this game, let alone win it by more than a touchdown or more to beat us.  Take Cleveland. 

6* Jets/Patriots AFC East *CA$H COW* on New York +14 

The Key: The Jets have been very competitive here down the stretch.  They realistically should be 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall, but since they are just 2-2-1 ATS, they are flying under the radar.  The Jets want to avenge their 13-27 home loss to the Patriots in which they were going in for a score late but threw an INT in the end zone that allowed the Patriots to cover as 13-point favorites.  They only lost 22-26 at Tennessee as 10.5-point dogs after leading most they way.  They won 27-23 at Buffalo as 4.5-point dogs.  They only lost 22-29 at home to Houston as 7-point dogs after blowing a lead with only four minutes left and giving up 10 unanswered points to close.  And last week they blew a 15-point 4th quarter lead and lost to the Packers 38-44 (OT) as 3-point home dogs.  They are playing well, especially since the return of Sam Darnold.  The Patriots aren’t the same juggernauts they’ve been in years’ past.  They are more vulnerable, going 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last 3 games.  They used to dominate the month of December, but not any more.  New York is 21-9 ATS in its last 30 road games when revenging a loss where they scored less than 14 points.  The Jets are 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  Take New York. 

7* Alabama/Oklahoma *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 79 

The Key: Alabama will utilize its running game to keep the Oklahoma offense off the field in this game.  And the Alabama defense is way better than anything Oklahoma has seen this season.  This should be much lower scoring than the oddsmakers anticipate.  Take the UNDER. 

6* Notre Dame/Clemson *CA$H COW* on Notre Dame +13.5 

The Key: Five times in college football history have two teams gone into bowl games undefeated with one team favored by a touchdown or more.  All five times, the underdog won the game outright.  I think Notre Dame is way better than it is getting credit for.  Take Notre Dame. 

6* Auburn/Purdue Music City Bowl *CA$H COW* on Purdue +3.5 

The Key: Purdue battled back from an 0-3 start this season to get to 6-6 and a bowl.  They pulled off upsets over Boston College and Ohio State along the way, and they needed to win at Indiana in their season finale to get their 6th win.  The Boilermakers certainly want to be here.  And they are better than their 6-6 record would suggest as they lost 4 games by 4 points or less this year.  They were really close to being a 10-2 team.  Auburn does not want to be here.  They lost to Alabama 21-52 in the Iron Bowl to punctuate what has been a very disappointing 7-5 season.  They only beat 2 bowl teams all season in Washington and Texas A&M, which were both close wins that could have gone either way.  Purdue is 9-1 ATS vs. good passing teams with a 58% completion percentage or better over the last 2 seasons.  The Boilermakers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games.  The Tigers are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games.  Take Purdue. 

7* Broncos/Raiders AFC West *HEAVY HITTER* on Oakland +3 

The Key: There is a good chance this will be the final game at the Oakland Coliseum ever.  The Raiders are looking for a place to play next year before moving to Vegas the following season.  From quotes I’ve ready from players and coaches alike, the Raiders will be up for this game.  And they’ve played well at home of late against two of the best teams in the NFL.  They upset the Steelers are double-digit underdogs and also only lost by 7 to the Chiefs as 14-plus point dogs.  The Broncos have lost 2 in a row and have officially been eliminated.  They have injuries on offense and defense that have really hampered them the last two weeks and they aren’t any healthier now.  The Raiders only lost 19-20 at Denver in their first meeting this season and will be looking to avenge that defeat.  Denver is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 road games off 2 or more straight ATS losses.  Take Oakland. 

7* SEA/KC Sunday Night Game of the Year on Seattle +2.5 

The Key: The Seahawks are tremendous as home underdogs.  And after losing last week, they need a win to clinch a playoff spot here.  And with the Chargers losing to the Ravens yesterday, the Chiefs can now relax knowing that they have a two-game lead on the Chargers for the division lead.  They can clinch at home against Oakland next week if need be.  The Seahawks will be the hungrier team given the situation.  And the Chiefs just aren’t playing well since losing three of their top playmakers on offense in Kareem Hunt, Spencer Ware and Sammy Watkins.  They have one of the worst defenses in the NFL, too, especially against the run.  They give up 5.0 yards per carry this season, and the Seahawks lead the NFL in rushing at 154.9 yards per game, so this is a bad matchup for Kansas City’s defense.  The Seahawks are 11-1-1 ATS since January of 2011 as a home underdog with 9 outright wins.  Seattle is 11-0 SU & 9-1-1 ATS in its last 11 games off a SU loss as a favorite.  Russell Wilson is 5-1 ATS in his career as a home dog.  Take Seattle. 

6* NFL Total of the Week on Steelers/Saints UNDER 53 

The Key: With the Saints only averaging 283 YPG on offense in their last 4 games, this total should not be this high.  And with both teams having great defenses, this total shouldn’t be this high.  Both of these teams are improved tremendously on defense this year.  The Steelers are 9th in total defense and give up only 22.6 PPG and 333.5 YPG.  The Saints are 11th in total defense and give up just 20.9 PPG and 341.6 YPG.  Their defense has been playing as well as any other D in the league down the stretch.  The Saints are yielding a mere 12.3 PPG in their last 6 games.  The UNDER is 36-15 in Steelers last 51 road games, including 12-2 in all road games over the last 2 seasons.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Saints last 5 games overall.  Take the UNDER. 

6* PIT/NO Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Pittsburgh +7 

The Key: The situation favors the Steelers here Sunday.  The Ravens beat the Chargers yesterday and now if the Steelers don’t win, they’ll be trailing the Ravens in the AFC North.  They would also need help to make a wild card.  Basically, their season is on the line today, and they can’t afford to have a letdown after their big win over the Patriots last week.  The Saints can relax knowing that even if they lose this game, they could still beat the Panthers next week at home and clinch the No. 1 seed.  That’s because the Rams were upset as 13.5-point favorites by the Eagles last week.  The Saints caught a big break there.  And the Saints just aren’t playing well at all right now offensively as they putting up only 283 YPG in their last 4 games.  The Steelers have the better offense and the better defense this season and shouldn’t be catching this many points given the situation.  Take Pittsburgh. 

7* Ravens/Chargers AFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Los Angeles -3.5 

The Key: The Chargers have a huge rest advantage here after playing last Thursday, while the Ravens played on Sunday and will be on a short week with this game being played on Saturday.  The Ravens have to travel clearly across country as well.  And the Chargers got some great news this week as that extra rest has allowed their two best playmakers on offense to get healthy and return to the lineup this week.  Leading receiver Keenan Allen and leading rusher Melvin Gordon are both back.  The Ravens won’t have enough firepower to match the Chargers offense.  The Ravens are too predictable as they have run for a lot of yards lately, but not passed for many.  And it’s worth noting that the 5 defenses Lamar Jackson has faced since taking over as starter all rank 24th or worse in total defense.  So they have faced five bottom 10 defenses.  The Chargers have the 8th-best defense in the NFL, and it has been even better here down the stretch since Joey Bosa returned.  They held the high-powered Chiefs to just 294 total yards last week.  And they have allowed 65 or fewer rushing yards in 3 of their last 4 games coming in.  They will be able to stop the run and make life difficult on Jackson.  The Chargers are 34-13 ATS after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games.  Take Los Angeles. 

6* Buffalo/Troy NCAAF *CA$H COW* on Buffalo PK 

The Key: Buffalo is far and away the best team in the MAC.  And because they blew a 19-point second half lead against NIU and lost 29-30 in the MAC Championship, they’ll be extra hungry to want to erase that sour taste.  Look for them to beat Troy here, which is deflated following its loss to Appalachian State in the season finale that cost them a trip to the Sun Belt title game.  Buffalo has played the tougher schedule and has put up better numbers than Troy, and thus are the better team.  The Bulls are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a loss and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss.  The Trojans are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games against MAC teams.  Take Buffalo. 

7* Ohio/San Diego State *HEAVY HITTER* on San Diego State +3 

The Key: Wrong team favored here.  Ohio getting too much respect for their finish to the season, while SDSU getting killed by oddsmakers for their 0-3 finish to the season.  The Aztecs weren’t motivated at all over their final 3 games and now will be motivated to finish off their season with a win.  The Bobcats were motivated down the stretch trying to win the MAC.  The MAC is just 6-24 SU in bowl games over the last 6 years.  And after an 0-2 start to this bowl season, the MAC is now 1-12 SU over the last 3 seasons in bowl games.  The Aztecs are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games as underdogs, which includes outright upsets over Boise State and Arizona State this season.  Take San Diego State. 

7* Saints/Panthers NFC South *HEAVY HITTER* on Carolina +7 

The Key: Despite losing 5 straight, the Panthers are still very much alive for the playoffs.  They need to win out, and it starts with this game against the Saints at home Monday Night.  They only trail the Vikings by a game in the wild card and hold the tiebreaker over the Eagles.  The Panthers are 5-1 at home this year and scoring 30.8 PPG on their home turf.  They have what it takes to hang with the Saints, whose offense has sputtered in recent weeks with just 262 YPG in their last 3 games.  And the Panthers will certainly be revenge-minded after losing all 3 meetings with the Saints last year, including playoffs.  Ron Rivera is 22-6 ATS off a road loss as the coach of the Panthers.  Take Carolina. 

6* Eagles/Rams Sunday Night *BAILOUT* on Philadelphia +14 

The Key: This line has gotten out of hand.  Oddsmakers have adjusted too much for the Carson Wentz injury.  It was obvious they didn’t need Wentz when they won the Super Bowl last year, and this line has jumped from 8 up to 13 and 14 in some places since it was announced that Wentz would be out.  Nick Foles is clearly a capable backup after what he did in the Super Bowl run last year.  And he’s out to prove to other teams that he can be their starter, and he’s a consummate pro wanting to help his teammates get back to the playoffs.  After all, the Eagles are still only a half-game out of the wild card even with how poorly this season has gone thus far.  The Rams have been overvalued for weeks.  They are just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.  The Rams are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 home games against a team with a losing road record.  The Eagles are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings with the Rams.  Take Philadelphia. 

7* Patriots/Steelers AFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Pittsburgh +3 

The Key: The Steelers need to right the ship quickly off 3 straight upset losses they had no business losing.  They should have beaten the Broncos, Chargers and Raiders, but late miscues cost them in all 3 games.  They are back home here today and ready to exorcize their demons against the Patriots.  The Pats are only 3-4 on the road this season, so they are beatable.  The Steelers are outscoring their opponents by 8.3 PPG at home this year behind an offense that puts up 34.5 PPG at home.  Mike Tomlin is 11-3 ATS off 3 or more consecutive ATS losses as the coach of the Steelers.  Take Pittsburgh. 

6* Sunday NFL *Upset Special* on New York Giants +2 

The Key: The Giants are 4-1 SU & 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.  And they blew a 16-point lead on the road against the Eagles in their only loss.  This is a team playing with a lot of confidence right now and still believing they are alive for the playoffs.  The Titans are only 2-5 on the road this season, where they’re scoring 16.4 PPG.  They should not be favored in this matchup.  Tennessee is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 road games following 2 or more straight up wins.  Take New York. 

6* Texans/Jets AFC *CA$H COW* on New York +7 

The Key: The Houston Texans are starting to get too much respect from oddsmakers now after going 9-1 in their last 10 games overall.  They lost outright at home to the Colts last week as 4-point favorites.  Consider that in Houston’s previous 6 road games this season, they haven’t been favored by more than 3 points once.  And now they’re laying a touchdown on the road to the Jets.  This is a Jets team that has been impressive since Sam Darnold returned from injury.  They led most the way at Tennessee two weeks ago and only lost 22-26 as 10-point dogs, easily covering the spread.  Then last week they had a nice 27-23 road win at Buffalo as 4.5-point dogs.  And they should be able to stay within 7 points of Houston with a legit chance to pull the upset this week.  The Texans are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following a loss.  The Texans are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 December games.  The Jets are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games against a team with a winning road record.  The dog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.  Take New York. 

7* December Bowl Total of the Year on ASU/Fresno State UNDER 53.5 

The Key: Two teams with great defenses square off in the Las Vegas Bowl Saturday.  Fresno State has been elite defensively, giving up only 13.7 PPG on the season.  Arizona State allows 25.1 PPG.  And these are two mediocre offenses.  But my favorite thing about these offenses is that they don’t turn the football overall.  Fresno State has committed just 11 turnovers in 13 games, while ASU has committed only 8 turnovers in 12 games.  Turnovers usually create easy points, and since both teams won’t be turning it over, I think that greatly benefits the UNDER.  ASU’s offense suffered a big blow when it was announced leading receiver N’Keal Harry would skip the bowl game to get ready for the NFL Draft.  He may be the best receiver in the Pac-12, catching 73 balls for 1,088 yards and 9 touchdowns this season.  The UNDER is 22-8 in Bulldogs last 30 games overall.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Bulldogs last 6 games this season with a total of 49.5 to 56 points.  Take the UNDER. 

7* Chargers/Chiefs AFC West *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 55 

The Key: This will be the 2nd meeting between the Chargers and Chiefs this season.  Both of these defenses have gotten a whole lot better since they met way back in Week 1.  The Chargers are giving up just over 16 PPG in their last 9 games coming in.  The Chiefs have held 7 of their last 10 opponents to 23 points or fewer.  And I think we see a defensive battle in this rematch tonight.  The Chiefs are missing their top two running backs and receiver Sammy Watkins, and Tyreke Hill is banged up.  The Chargers are missing their top two running backs as well, two guys in Gordon and Ekeler who are huge safety valves for Philip Rivers out of the backfield.  The UNDER is 10-1 in Chargers last 11 December games.  The UNDER is 8-1 in Chargers last 9 against AFC West teams.  The UNDER is 48-21-1 in Chiefs last 70 home games.  Take the UNDER. 

7* Vikings/Seahawks NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Minnesota +3.5 

The Key: I strongly believe the Vikings are the better team in this matchup and we’re getting 3.5 points with them.  This line should be closer to pick ‘em.  The Vikings have outgained 6 of their last 8 opponents and they are a legit team with a legit defense and a solid offense.  Sure, the Seahawks have on 3 in a row coming in, but they were outgained in 2 of those games by a combined 200 yards by the 49ers and Panthers.  The Seahawks have now been outgained in 4 of their last 5 games coming in.  The Vikings are 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 games following a loss.  Seattle is 4-17 ATS in its last 21 games off a blowout win by 21 points or more.  Mike Zimmer is 50-27 ATS as the coach of the Vikings.  Take Minnesota. 

6* Rams/Bears Sunday Night *BAILOUT* on Chicago +3 

The Key: The Chicago Bears have one of the best defenses in the NFL.  The Rams are in for a rude awakening against Chicago here tonight.  The Bears have forced more turnovers (30) than any team in the NFL.  They will be ready for Jared Goff and company.  Plus, they get Mitch Trubisky back at quarterback for this game after he missed the past two games.  The Bears should be able to take away Todd Gurley as they give up just 86 rushing yards per game this season, and just 66 rushing yards per game at home.  The Rams are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Bears are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 home games, including 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 home games against a team with a winning road record.  Take Chicago.

6* AFC Game of the Day on Oakland Raiders +10 

The Key: Big Ben just hasn’t been a quarterback that you can trust when on the road and laying points.  And now his job got a whole lot more difficult with the injury to James Connor.  Roethlisberger is 1-9 ATS as a double-digit road favorite lifetime.  And in six career starts against Oakland, Big Ben has gone just 2-4 SU & 1-5 ATS.  The Raiders have covered the spread 2 of the last 3 weeks and only lost by 7 to the Chiefs last week at home.  They can stay within 10 points of the Steelers, who lost at home to the Chiefs earlier this season.  Take Oakland. 

7* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month on San Francisco 49ers +3.5 

The Key: The Broncos are missing two key players this week that they had last week and during this run they’ve made.  Leading receiver Emmanuel Sanders is out with a torn Achilles suffered in practice earlier this week.  And top corner Chris Harris is out as well.  The loss of Sanders hurts because the Broncos traded away Demaryius Thomas and were already thin at receiver.  The 49ers have outgained their opponents by a total of 174 yards on the season.  They are clearly better than a 2-10 team, and I think they get to taste victory here against the Broncos Sunday.  The Broncos are 0-6 ATS vs. teams who force one or less turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons.  They are losing by 12.3 PPG on average to these teams.  Take San Francisco. 

7* Jaguars/Titans NFL *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 37.5 

The Key: The Jaguars and Titans played in a 9-6 ugly defensive battle in their first meeting in Jacksonville that saw 15 combined points.  I think we see another ugly defensive battle in the rematch, especially with the Jaguars going with Cody Kessler again at quarterback.  His first start last week resulted in a 6-0 win over the Colts.  The Jaguars have a great defense that ranks 3rd in the NFL in total defense at 315.6 YPG allowed.  The Titans also have a great defense that ranks 9th in the NFL in total defense at 340.9 YPG allowed.  And both teams have been terrible on offense.  The Jaguars are 24th in total offense and the Titans are 28th.  The Jaguars are 30th in scoring offense at 16.9 PPG, while the Titans are 28th at 18.4 PPG.  I don’t think either team tops 20 points in this one.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Titans last 7 vs. AFC South teams.  The UNDER is 4-1 in Jaguars last 5 vs. division opponents.  Take the UNDER. 

7* Redskins/Eagles NFC East *HEAVY HITTER* on Philadelphia -6 

The Key: The Eagles are in true must-win mode here.  They can’t lose this game because they’d be 5-7 and two games back of the 7-5 Cowboys with a head-to-head loss to them already, so essentially three games back.  The Redskins could afford a loss and still recover.  The Eagles can’t.  And I like the momentum the Eagles have from coming from 19-3 down to beat the Giants last week, 25-22.  Now they should be able to win by a touchdown or more against a banged-up Redskins team playing with a backup QB.  The injuries have taken their toll on the Redskins.  They are 1-3 in their last 4 games overall and their lone win against the Bucs was a fluke.  The Bucs had 501 total yards but managed just 3 points.  Figure that one out.  Bets on home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points off a game where they committed non turnovers against an opponent that had a -3 turnover margin or worse last game are 25-6 ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Take Philadelphia. 

7* Vikings/Patriots NFL Total of the Week on OVER 48.5 

The Key: Two of the better offenses in the NFL go at it this afternoon in New England.  Both the Patriots and Vikings are loaded with weapons and great quarterback play.  And both defenses are down a notch from year’s past as well.  Minnesota is 14-2 OVER in its last 16 games off three straight division games.  New England is 6-0 OVER in home games after gaining 6.25 or more yards per play in its previous game.  The OVER is 5-1 in Vikings last 6 road games.  The OVER is 6-1 in Vikings last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.  The OVER is 4-1 in Patriots last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.  Take the OVER. 

6* NFL Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Atlanta Falcons -2.5 

The Key: The Falcons come in on extra rest having played last Thursday.  They had their chances to beat the Saints on the road but squandered several opportunities with 4 turnovers, including 3 deep in New Orleans territory.  But they’re back home and rested this week and should be primed for a big performance against the Ravens.  This is a Ravens team that is getting too much love for wins over the Bengals and Raiders in consecutive weeks at home.  But now they are back on the road where they are 2-3 this season.  The Ravens are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a win by more than 14 points.  Take Atlanta. 

6* AFC Game of the Day on Cincinnati Bengals +4.5 

The Key: The Bengals are rejuvenated now with Jeff Driskel replacing Andy Dalton at quarterback.  They had a huge second half against the Browns last week with Driskel under center.  And now he gets another weapon in his arsenal this week with the much-anticipated return of AJ Green.  The Broncos are getting too much respect from the books after their improbable wins over the Chargers and Steelers as underdogs the last 2 weeks.  Now they’re being asked to go on the road and win by a margin as 4.5-point favorites.  This is not their preferred role.  These are two 5-6 teams fighting to stay alive for the playoffs, and we’re getting the home team at an excellent price.  The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.  Take Cincinnati. 

6* Fresno/Boise MWC *CA$H COW* on UNDER 53 

The Key: This will be the 4th meeting between Fresno State and Boise State in the last 2 seasons.  It will be the 2nd consecutive year that they’ve played in the regular season and then also in the MWC Championship Game.  To say they are familiar with one another would be an understatement.  And that clearly favors the UNDER.  They have combined for 45, 31 and 41 points in their first 3 meetings, and now we have a total of 53 here.  That’s 14 points more than the 39 points they have averaged in their 3 previous meetings.  Fresno is 9-0 UNDER off a home win over the last 2 seasons.  Fresno is 6-0 UNDER in road games this season.  The UNDER is 19-7 in Bulldogs last 26 home games.  The UNDER is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.  The UNDER is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings at Boise State.  Take the UNDER. 

6* Clemson/Pitt ACC *CA$H COW* on Pittsburgh +28 

The Key: The Pitt Panthers pulled the 43-42 upset over Clemson back in 2016 as 21.5-point underdogs.  They know what it takes to hang with this team.  And they are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall, so oddsmakers have failed to give them the respect they deserve here down the stretch.  It’s happening again here Saturday as they are 28-point underdogs to the Tigers.  Dano Swinney is only 3-12 ATS as a favorite of 21.5 to 31 points as the coach of Clemson.  This is the spot that the Tigers have failed to cover time and time again when the expectations are too high.  Take Pittsburgh. 

7* Alabama/Georgia SEC Game of the Year on Georgia +12 

The Key: Georgia wants to avenge its 26-23 (OT) loss to Alabama in the championship game last year.  This is the opportunity they’ve waited a year for, and I expect them to take advantage.  They are the team best equipped to beat Alabama in the country.  They have an elite defense and an experienced offense with yet another elite running game, plus Jake Fromm calling the shots at quarterback.  Bets on neutral field underdogs who average 200 or more rushing yards per game after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in 4 straight games are 24-4 ATS since 1992.  Take Georgia. 

7* NIU/Buffalo NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Buffalo -3 

The Key: I believe Buffalo to be the better of these two teams, and I don’t really even think it’s close.  While NIU has the better defense, they don’t have the offense that can keep up with Buffalo.  The Bulls score 35.2 PPG this season behind a balanced attack with 200 rushing yards and 219 passing yards per game.  And they have a pretty good defense of their own giving up 24.2 PPG.  NIU averages a putrid 19.9 PPG and 318 YPG.  The Huskies give up 20.9 PPG, so they have a good defense, but they are actually getting outscored and outgained on the season.  They were fortunate to make the MAC Championship to say the least as the MAC West was down this season.  The Huskies are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games as a neutral field underdog.  Buffalo is 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS against MAC opponents this season.  They are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 conference games dating back to last season.  The Bulls are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games overall.  Take Buffalo. 

7* Saints/Cowboys NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on Dallas +8 

The Key: The Saints are doing something that is rarely seen in the NFL.  They come in 9-0 ATS in their last 9 games overall.  But now the love for the Saints is getting to be too much as they’re being asked to lay more than a touchdown on the road here against the Cowboys.  And this is a Cowboys team that has played much better since trading for Amari Cooper.  They have won and covered 3 straight coming in.  Their offense is good enough to hang with the Saints, and they have the 3rd-best scoring defense in the NFL giving up only 19.4 PPG.  The Saints are not good on defense, and the Cowboys are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 against teams who give up 350 or more yards per game.  Take Dallas. 

7* Titans/Texans AFC South *HEAVY HITTER* on Houston -4 

The Key: The home team has won and covered 5 straight in this series between the Titans and Texans.  The Texans have won each of their last 6 meetings with the Titans all by 6 points or more.  And those 6 wins have come by an incredible 20 points per game.  With the Texans looking to avenge their 17-20 loss at Tennessee in their first meeting this season, I think they’ll have no problem covering this 4-point spread at home tonight.  And Marcus Mariota is far from 100% as he was questionable all week leading up to this game.  Take Houston. 

7* Packers/Vikings Sunday Night Game of the Year on Minnesota -3 

The Key: The Vikings are as healthy as they’ve been since Week 1.  The Packers have several key players questionable or out for this game.  And the Vikings are sure to be hungry off a loss to the Bears last week. The Packers have lost 3 of their last 4 coming in and just aren’t a very good team.  Aaron Rodgers lacks weapons because of all the injuries, and the defense remains poor.  The Packers have the biggest home/road split of any team in the NFL over the past decade.  They are great at home but terrible on the road.  The Packers are 0-5 SU & 1-3-1 ATS on the road this season, getting outscored by 8.2 PPG.  No team has been as good as the Vikings at home over the past several season.  Minnesota is 36-16-2 ATS in its last 54 home games.  Mike Zimmer is 27-11 ATS in home games as the coach of Minnesota.  This line of -3 seems very cheap Sunday night.  Take Minnesota. 

6* Giants/Eagles NFC East *CA$H COW* on New York +5.5 

The Key: Saquon Barkley guaranteed the Giants would win their final 8 games coming out of their bye.  And don’t look now, but they’re 2-0 since that guarantee with a realistic path to win the NFC East if they keep winning.  And now they face the Eagles, who are coming off back-to-back ugly losses to the Cowboys and Saints, including their 7-48 loss at New Orleans last week.  The Eagles are marred by injuries to several of their best players.  Their secondary is a mess, and even Eli Manning should be able to light it up.  I also like that this is a revenge game for the Giants after their 13-34 home loss to the Eagles earlier this season.  That was a very misleading final as the Giants actually outgained the Eagles 401 to 379 in that contest.  The Giants are 40-21 ATS in their last 61 road games off two or more consecutive wins.  Philadelphia is 0-10 ATS vs. teams who allow 6.0 or more yards per play over the last 3 years.  Take New York. 

6* Seahawks/Panthers NFC *CA$H COW* on Carolina -3 

The Key: The Carolina Panthers have had a huge home/road split this season.  They are just 1-4 on the road, but 5-0 at home.  And now they’re home here against the Seahawks Sunday.  I think we get a big effort from the Panthers off 2 consecutive road losses.  Players will have coach Ron Rivera’s back after his decision to go for a 2-point conversion to try and beat the Lions last week.  Rivera is 22-4 ATS off a road loss as the Panthers’ coach, including 9-1 ATS off an upset road loss.  Take Carolina. 

7* South Carolina/Clemson ESPN *HEAVY HITTER* on South Carolina +26.5 

The Key: Clemson will make the four-team playoff no matter what happens in this game against South Carolina as long as they beat Pitt next week in the ACC Championship.  The Tigers are getting too much love now after going 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.  They did not cover as 29.5-point favorites against Duke last week in a 29-point win.  And now they are 26.5-point favorites against South Carolina, a team that is much better than Duke.  The Gamecocks have their best offense of the Will Muschamp era this season as they are scoring 32.8 PPG.  And they still have a solid defense.  They have what it takes to stay within 4 touchdowns of the Tigers.  The Gamecocks are 7-0 ATS in road games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.  South Carolina is 7-1-1 ATS in its last 9 road games overall.  The Tigers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games.  Take South Carolina. 

6* Sun Belt Game of the Day on Georgia Southern -10.5 

The Key: Georgia Southern currently sits at 8-3 while having a tremendous season in the Sun Belt.  Two more wins and they can get to 10, which would be a huge accomplishment at the FBS level.  Georgia State has lost six straight while going 0-5-1 ATS in the process to drop to 2-9 SU & 2-8-1 ATS on the season.  This game is a matchup problem for Georgia State.  The Panthers have a horrible defense that gives up 37.6 PPG and 499 YPG on the season.  Their biggest weakness is against the run, where they give up 248 RYPG and 6.6 YPC.  Georgia Southern is a triple-option team that rushes for 259 RYPG and 5.2 YPC.  They will have their way on the ground against the Panthers today.  The Panthers are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 conference games.  Take Georgia Southern. 

6* AAC Game of the Day on Navy +6.5 

The Key: Navy isn’t a team that’s going to quit.  The Midshipmen showed that the last two weeks as they gave UCF a run for their money in an 11-point loss as 23.5-point dogs, and they beat Tulsa 37-29 as 5.5-point favorites.  They should be able to stay within a touchdown of Tulane and possibly pull the upset today.  Tulane is not playing well, only beating ECU by 6 as 10.5-point favorites, and losing 17-48 to Houston as 7.5-point dogs the last two weeks.  They are choking away their chance at making a bowl for a second straight season.  Navy is 82-45 ATS in its last 127 road games.  The Midshipmen are 22-7 ATS in their last 29 road games after having lost 2 of their last 3 coming in.  The Green Wave are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 home games off a blowout loss by 21 points arm ore to a conference opponent.  Ken Niumatalolo is 22-12 ATS as a road underdog as the coach of Navy.  Take Navy. 

7* Washington/Wash State NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Washington State -2 

The Key: This year just feels different.  I know Washington has owned Washington State in the Apple Cup, but this is the best Cougars team that Mike Leach has had yet.  And I think they’re ready to take that next step.  The Cougars are 10-1 SU & 10-1 ATS this season, getting overlooked all year.  Their only loss came early in the season by a field goal at USC.  Washington has been overvalued all season, going 8-3 SU & 2-9 ATS.  The Huskies are 0-6 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better this season.  Take Washington State. 

6* ECU/Cincinnati AAC *CA$H COW* on East Carolina +17 

The Key: Cincinnati is coming off its Super Bowl last week against UCF that decided the AAC East title.  After losing that game 13-38, I just can’t foresee the Bearcats playing well this week as a hangover is in effect.  And now they’ll be up against an ECU team that has proven it can play with anyone, especially now that freshman QB Holton Ahlers has taken over.  Ahlers has played the better part of 5 games this season, throwing for over 1,600 yards with 11 touchdowns and only 2 interceptions.  He has added 571 yards and 6 touchdowns on the ground, putting up monster numbers in only a handful of games this year. And he’ll make enough plays to keep the Pirates in this game Friday as well.  The Bearcats are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing 37 points or more.  Take East Carolina. 

6* Falcons/Saints NFC South *Total* Annihilator on OVER 60 

The Key: The Falcons and Saints should both top 30 points in this game tonight.  They combined for 80 points in the Saints’ 43-37 win over the Falcons in the Georgia Dome in their first meeting.  And now this total has been set 20 points lower than that result.  They’re back in a dome here in New Orleans.  Take the OVER. 

7* Redskins/Cowboys NFC East *HEAVY HITTER* on Washington +7 

The Key: The Cowboys win two games on the road and all of a sudden they are laying 7 points at home to the Washington Redskins.  They haven’t been favored by 7 points or more in any game this season.  And the Cowboys are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite when playing on less than 6 days’ rest.  Colt McCoy is one of the best backups in the league and has even guided the Redskins to a win in Dallas previously.  Take Washington. 

6* Colorado State/Air Force MWC *CA$H COW* on Colorado State +14.5 

The Key: Both Air Force and Colorado State have fallen short of bowl eligibility this season.  So both teams are playing for pride, and I don’t see an advantage for either team in that department.  Both are coming off crushing losses, but I was way impressed with Colorado State’s 24-29 loss as 29.5-point underdogs to Utah State last week.  Utah State is one of the best teams in the country, and the Rams outgained them 506 to 310 for the game and really should have won.  The Rams average nearly 300 passing yards per game this season, and they should have their way with an Air Force defense that gives up 8.7 yards per attempt through the air this year.  Air Force is 1-8 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.  Take Colorado State. 

7* Chiefs/Rams MNF Total of the Year on OVER 62.5 

The Key: This game has been moved from Mexico City to Los Angeles, yet the total hasn’t moved one bit. If anything it has gone down.  They were going to play on a terrible, sloppy field, and now they are going to play on a perfect field in perfect weather.  It’s going to be great scoring conditions Monday night for two of the best offenses in the NFL.  The Chiefs are putting up 35.3 PPG while the Rams are putting up 33.5 PPG.  And I expect both teams to reach or exceed their season averages in this contest.  It will be similar to the 45-35 Saints game the Rams played two weeks ago, and the 43-40 game the Chiefs played against the Patriots several weeks back.  Both offenses will shine, and the defenses will do little to stop them.  The OVER is 6-1 in Chiefs last 7 road games.  The OVER is 21-10 in Rams last 31 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Take the OVER. 

6* Titans/Colts AFC South *CA$H COW* on Indianapolis -1 

The Key: Andrew Luck is 9-0 SU & 8-0-1 ATS in in his last 9 meetings with the Titans.  He makes all the difference for this team.  And the Colts are flying under the radar right now.  They have won their last 3 games by a combined 49 points.  Now they catch the Titans in a tough spot off their win over the Patriots last week.  They are in line for a letdown here.  Take Indianapolis. 

6* Cowboys/Falcons NFC *CA$H COW* on Dallas +3.5 

The Key: The Cowboys got the statement win they needed with a 27-20 upset as 7.5-point road dogs at Philadelphia last week.  It gave them the confidence they needed to make a push for the NFC East title in the second half of the season.  And now they face a reeling Falcons team that just lost to the lowly Brown 16-28 last week.  The Cowboys have a much improved offense with Amari Cooper now, giving them the threat on the outside they have been missing.  The Cowboys should be able to do whatever they want to offensively against a Falcons defense that is yielding 28.2 PPG and 415 YPG.  They are giving up 5.2 yards per carry and 70.4% completions to opposing quarterbacks.  The Cowboys are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games after gaining 400 or more yards in their last game.  The Cowboys are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games vs. teams who allow 375 or more yards per game.  Take Dallas. 

7* NFC Game of the Month on New York Giants -1 

The Key: Odell Beckham Jr. and Saquon Barkley both stated that the Giants are going to win their remaining 8 games and salvage their season.  While I don’t believe them, I do think they’ll win this week against the Bucs.  And they won their first game back from the bye over the 49ers to start the streak.  It just shows that they aren’t quitting.  And it’s worth noting they played the toughest schedule in the NFL in the first half of the season.  It gets easier now, and it started with the 49ers and moves on to the Bucs this week.  Tampa Bay is 1-6 in its last 7 games overall.  The Bucs managed just 3 points in a 16-3 loss to an injury-ravaged Redskins team ripe for the picking.  Things are not good in Tampa Bay right now.  The Giants are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings with the Bucs.  Take New York. 

6* UNLV/Hawaii Mountain West *BAILOUT* on Hawaii -6.5 

The Key: The Hawaii Rainbow Warriors are 6-5 this season.  But they need one more win for a bowl because they play 13 games, which requires 7 wins.  And they have a road game on deck next week against San Diego State.  So this will be Hawaii’s Super Bowl.  And they should be well prepared considering they had a bye last week to get ready for it.  UNLV played and won its Super Bowl last week in a 27-24 upset at San Diego State as 24-point dogs.  But San Diego State was looking ahead to its game with Fresno State this week to decide the division title.  And UNLV won’t show up at all this week against the Rainbow Warriors in my estimation.  UNLV is 2-14 ATS in its last 16 games off a road win against a conference opponent.  Take Hawaii. 

6* Sun Belt Game of the Day on UL-Lafayette -17 

The Key: Lafayette sits at 5-5 and one win away from bowl eligibility here as they host South Alabama.  They want to take care of business here on Senior Day and will be hungry to do so because they don’t want to try and have to win next week against red-hot Louisiana-Monroe on the road.  They should handle their business against South Alabama, which is 1-6 in its last 7 games overall with all 6 losses coming by 17 points or more.  The Jaguars are 0-5 on the road this season and losing by 32.6 PPG on average.  Lafayette is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS at home and scoring 45.2 PPG with 554 YPG.  Their offense is built to cover big spreads like this.  South Alabama is 0-7 ATS in its last 7 games after having lost 6 or 7 of its last 8 games coming in.  The Jaguars are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 road games.  The Rajin’ Cajuns are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.  Take UL-Lafayette. 

6* Indiana/Michigan Big Ten *CA$H COW* on Indiana +28.5 

The Key: Michigan has its Super Bowl on deck against Ohio State.  I have to think the Wolverines will be looking past the Hoosiers and ahead to that game, which will decide the Big Ten East champion and possibly which team makes the four-team playoff.  Any lack of focus out of the Wolverines this week and it’s going to be tough to cover this 28.5-point spread.  Even if they show up it’s going to be tough because the Hoosiers are no pushovers.  They have yet to lose a game by more than 26 points despite playing a rugged Big Ten East schedule.  Jim Harbaugh is 0-6 ATS off a win by 35 points or more as the coach of the Wolverines.  Take Indiana. 

6* NCAAF Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Liberty +28 

The Key: Auburn has the Iron Bowl on deck against Alabama next week.  The Tigers just lost to Georgia last week.  This is a sandwich game for them.  They had a similar situation earlier this season when they only beat Southern Miss 24-13 at home as 27.5-point favorites.  Now they’re 28-point favorites against Liberty here, a Liberty team that has been competitive in almost every game this season.  Liberty is 7-0 ATS in its last 7 games as a road dog of 21.5 or more points.  Take Liberty. 

7* Mountain West Game of the Month on Wyoming -2.5 

The Key: Wyoming has fought its way back into bowl contention at 4-6 on the season.  The Cowboys went on the road and beat Colorado State 34-21 and topped San Jose State 24-9 at home.  Then they had a bye last week to get ready for the stretch run, where now if they beat Air Force and New Mexico they will get to a bowl, which is very doable.  It starts with taking care of Air Force here, and they have the rest advantage because Air Force played New Mexico last week.  The Falcons only run the football as they average just 14 pass attempts per game.  That bodes well for Wyoming, which is giving up just 114 rushing yards per game and 3.5 per carry this season.  The Falcons are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 conference games, and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The Cowboys are 14-3 ATS in the last 17 meetings, including 4-0 ATS in the last 4 home meetings.  Take Wyoming. 

7* Memphis/SMU NCAAF Friday Night Lights on SMU +9 

The Key: SMU can clinch a bowl berth with a win Friday night at home over Memphis.  Memphis has already clinched a bowl at 6-4.  It’s clear to me the hungrier team will be the home underdog Mustangs.  And they are fighting for a bowl and have been for weeks, going 3-1 in their last 4 games with their only loss coming to nationally ranked Cincinnati in overtime.  They upset Tulane as 9.5-point road dogs 27-23 and upset Houston 45-31 as 14-point home dogs.  And now they are catching too many points against Memphis.  The Tigers are just 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS on the road this season, where their defense is giving up 42 PPG and 504 YPG.  SMU has topped 500 total yards in each of its last two games against Houston and UConn while averaging 53.5 PPG and should be able to move the ball at will.  Bets on home dogs of 3.5 to 10 points who scored 42 or more points in 2 straight games coming in are 44-12 ATS over the last 5 years.  Take SMU. 

7* FAU/North Texas C-USA *HEAVY HITTER* on North Texas -3.5 

The Key: North Texas wants revenge from two losses to FAU last season.  They lost 69-31 in the regular season and 41-17 in the conference championship game.  But there’s no question the Mean Green have the better team in 2018, and it will show on the field Thursday night.  The Owls are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games.  The Mean Green are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 November games.  Take North Texas. 

6* Packers/Seahawks NFC *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 49.5 

The Key: Based on series history this total has been set too high.  The Packers and Seahawks have combined for 48 or fewer points at the end of regulation in each of their last 4 meetings.  They’ve averaging just 40.5 PPG combined at the end of regulation in those 4 meetings.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Seahawks last 4 Thursday games.  Take the UNDER. 

6* Buffalo/Ohio MAC *CA$H COW* on Ohio -2.5 

The Key: Buffalo knows it can clinch the MAC East title with a win over Bowling Green next week.  They won’t be putting all their eggs into one basket here against Ohio because of it, knowing they have another shot to clinch next week if they should lose this game.  I think Ohio comes in determined after a tough 2-point loss to Miami Ohio last week with the safety being the difference.  Ohio has gone 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their previous 6 games before that one and were playing some great football.  Now they want to prove that they are the best team in the MAC East by beating Buffalo tonight, and keeping their hopes alive of winning the division.  The Bobcats are 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS at home this year and winning by 23.7 PPG on average.  Ohio is 10-1 SU in its last 11 home meetings with Buffalo.  The Bobcats are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 vs. good offensive teams that score 34 or more points per game.  Take Ohio. 

7* Giants/49ers NFC *HEAVY HITTER* on San Francisco -3 

The Key: I know the 49ers aren’t going to quit.  They show up every week looking to win.  And it paid off last week with a 34-3 victory over the Oakland Raiders.  That coincided with Nick Mullens taking over for the terrible CJ Beathard at quarterback.  And Mullens has now earned another start after tossing 3 touchdown passes in the win.  The Giants are still going with Eli Manning.  He has started every game and the Giants are 1-7.  Their offense is about as inept as any in the league because of Eli and a terrible offensive line.  The 49ers have the better offense and the better defense, and they’re home on Monday Night Football.  I think the price is right to lay the field goal with them here.  The Giants are 1-9 ATS in all games with a line of +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.  The 49ers are 26-6 ATS in their last 32 MNF games.  Take San Francisco. 

6* Seahawks/Rams NFC West *CA$H COW* on Seattle +10 

The Key: Russell Wilson has never been a double-digit underdog in his career.  And he has only been a dog of 7.5 or more 3 times.  It’s no surprise that the Seahawks are 3-0 ATS in those 3 games.  I think the price is right to pull the trigger on the Seahawks here.  They just had their bye 2 weeks ago and came back from it with a 28-14 win at Detroit.  They should still be fresh.  The Rams haven’t had their bye yet and are starting to show signs of wearing down, especially defensively where they are allowing 27.3 PPG in their last 6 games overall.  And that’s why the Rams are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games.  Only one of those 6 games resulted in a double-digit win by the Rams.  The Rams are also 2-10 ATS vs. excellent passing teams who complete 64% of their passes or better over the last 3 seasons.  Their pass defense has been leaky, and Russell Wilson should be able to exploit it.  Take Seattle. 

7* NFC Total of the Year on Seahawks/Rams OVER 50.5 

The Key: The Seahawks and Rams combined for 64 points in their first meeting this season.  And now they’ll be in perfect weather in Los Angeles.  The Rams have arguably the best offense in the NFL as they’re scoring 33.2 PPG.  And their defense has been very leaky of late by allowing 27.3 PPG in their last 6 games.  The Seahawks have come alive offensively by scoring 27 or more points in 3 of their last 4 games.  I think both teams get to at least 27 today as well.  The OVER is 15-4 in Seahawks last 19 road games vs. teams who outscore their opponents by 10-plus PPG.  The OVER is 19-6 in Seahawks last 25 road games as a dog of 7.5 to 10 points.  Take the OVER. 

6* Patriots/Titans AFC *CA$H COW* on Tennessee +7 

The Key: The Patriots have to be getting tired.  They haven’t had their bye yet and they are now overvalued after going 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.  They are being asked to lay a full touchdown on the road against the Titans today.  This is a Titans team that is fresh after having a bye 2 weeks ago.  And they came back with an impressive 28-14 road win at Dallas as 4-point underdogs last week.  They have a very good defense that is giving up only 17.6 PPG this season.  That gives them a chance to be competitive here against the Patriots.  And Marcus Mariota torched that Dallas secondary.  He should be able to find plenty of holes in a Patriots defense that is allowing 381 YPG this season.  The Titans are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games.  The Titans are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Tennessee. 

7* FSU/Notre Dame Non-Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Florida State +17 

The Key: This line has hardly moved since it was announced that Ian Book was out at quarterback for Notre Dame.  Oddsmakers aren’t adjusting enough for his absence.  Brandon Wimbush will take his place, and he’s a terrible passer.  He’s completing just 55.3% of his passes this season compared to 74.5% for Book.  Wimbush has a 1/4 TD/INT ratio compared to the 15/4 mark for Book.  Wimbush is a running quarterback.  That plays right into Florida State’s hands.  The biggest strength of this entire FSU team is their run defense.  The Seminoles only give up 111 RYPG and 2.8 YPC!  That’s not what you would expect form a 4-5 team like them.  But this is the Super Bowl for the Seminoles and they’ll come to play tonight to try and knock off the unbeaten Fighting Irish.  The Seminoles are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games.  The Fighting Irish are 7-20-1 ATS in their last 28 November games.  All the pressure is on the Irish tonight.  Take Florida State. 

6* Oregon/Utah Pac-12 *CA$H COW* on Oregon +4.5 

The Key: Utah’s two best offensive players are out for this game.  QB Tyler Huntley is out with a broken collarbone, while star RB Zack Moss (1,092 yards, 11 TD, 6.1 YPC) is out with an ankle injury.  The Utes shouldn’t even be favored in this game tonight.  Justin Herbert and this Oregon offense will be the best unit on the field now.  Oregon has had Utah’s number, going 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS in the last 6 meetings.  The Ducks won outright as underdogs each of the last 2 seasons, and they’ll do the same again here Saturday given the huge injuries for the Utes.  Bets against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points who are coming off an upset loss as a road favorite of 7 or more, in weeks 10 through 13 are 35-9 ATS since 1992.  Take Oregon. 

6* Sun Belt Game of the Day on UL-Monroe -7 

The Key: The ULM Warhawks have reeled off 3 straight victories to get to 5-4 this season.  They can clinch bowl eligibility with a win Saturday and should be able to do so in blowout fashion against 2-7 South Alabama.  Few teams were more impressive than ULM last week.  They beat Georgia Southern 44-25 and outgained them by a ridiculous 357 yards in the process.  That was a one-loss GA Southern team at the time whose lone loss came to Clemson.  It was as impressive as any win in the Sun Belt this season.  Look for the Warhawks to keep rolling this weekend.  South Alabama is 1-14 ATS off a game where it committed one or fewer turnovers over the last 3 seasons.  Take UL-Monroe. 

6* Northwestern/Iowa Big Ten *CA$H COW* on Northwestern +10 

The Key: Underdogs are 9-0-1 ATS in Northwestern games this season.  The Wildcats have covered every time they’ve been a dog this season with one push.  And they are 5-1 in Big Ten play this season with wins over Michigan State, Wisconsin and Purdue.  They are a good team and they aren’t getting treated like it.  The Iowa Hawkeyes already have 3 conference losses and could suffer a hangover here off their two straight tough losses in the closing seconds to Purdue and Penn State.  Take Northwestern. 

6* Mississippi State/Alabama SEC *CA$H COW* on Mississippi State +24.5 

The Key: The Alabama Crimson Tide are prone to hangovers after big wins.  And this is the perfect spot for one after their huge win at LSU last week.  The Mississippi State Bulldogs have managed to stay within 25 points of Alabama in 11 of the past 14 meetings.  They have been competitive against what has been the most dominant football program ever over the past decade-plus.  Mississippi State certainly has the defense to be competitive this season, too.  The Bulldogs are yielding just 12.3 PPG this year.  They have been stout against the run and the pass.  Mobile QB Nick Fitzgerald should be able to do enough with his legs to put up enough points to stay within the number as well.  Take Mississippi State. 

7* Panthers/Steelers NFL *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 51.5 

The Key: This is a very high total for two teams with solid defenses.  The Panthers are allowing 344.7 YPG this season while the Steelers are giving up 348.2 YPG.  These teams are 11th and 12th in total defense, respectively.  The Panthers are 8-1 UNDER in road games on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.  The Panthers are 48-21 UNDER in their last 69 games off a win against a division rival.  The UNDER is 4-1 in Steelers last 5 Thursday games.  The UNDER is 17-8 in Steelers lsat 25 games following an ATS win.  Bets on the UNDER on road teams where the total is 49.5 or greater after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last 5 games, in November games are 30-7 since 1983.  Take the UNDER. 

7* Toledo/NIU MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Northern Illinois -3 

The Key: The Northern Illinois Huskies can basically wrap up to the MAC West title with a win tonight.  No question they’ll be motivated to get it done.  This has been one of the best teams in the MAC all season, and they should be able to handle Toledo by more than a field goal at home tonight.  NIU is 6-3 this season with its 3 losses coming to Utah, Iowa and Florida State.  The Huskies have handled their business in MAC play this year with a 5-0 conference record.  They also went on the road and upset BYU.  Toledo is still without starting QB Mitchell Guadagni.  Their backup has played well in his place, but against soft defenses, and he’s going to really get tested tonight against the best defense in the MAC.  The Huskies are giving up just 20.4 PPG and 327 YPG in MAC play this year.  That’s the difference in this game.  Toledo is allowing 26.4 PG and 445 YPG this season.  The Huskies are 7-0 ATS after outrushing their last opponent by 150 or more yards last game over the last 3 seasons.  The Rockets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a win.  Take Northern Illinois. 

7* Kent State/Buffalo MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Kent State +20 

The Key: Buffalo doesn’t even need to show up tonight.  The Bulls can lose outright and it won’t matter.  Next week’s game against Ohio will decided the MAC East champion.  I think their lack of motivation will allow Kent State to get the cover here.  And I also like that there is gusts of up to 50 miles per hour forecasted in this one, which should keep this a low scoring affair.  Take Kent State. 

7* Titans/Cowboys NFL *Total* Annihilator on OVER 40 

The Key: This is a very low total for an NFL game.  It doesn’t take much to go OVER 40 points in the NFL anymore with the rules that favor the offenses.  And I think with both teams off bye weeks they’ll have come up with some more creative game plans to spark their offenses.  The Cowboys should already get a spark with the addition of Amari Cooper.  They should have one of the better offenses in the league moving forward now that they have a legitimate No. 1 receiver.  The Cowboys are 9-1 OVER in their last 10 home games when playing with 2 or more weeks rest.  Bets on the OVER when the total is 35.5 to 42 against teams off a close loss by 7 points or less to a division opponent, in November games are 26-3 over the last 10 seasons.  Take the OVER. 

6* Packers/Patriots Sunday Night *BAILOUT* on Green Bay +6 

The Key: Getting Aaron Rodgers as a 6-point underdog against the Patriots is a nice proposition.  That’s especially the case when you consider Rodgers is a perfect 5-0 ATS as a dog of 6 points or more in his career.  It doesn’t happen often.  It happened last week and the Packers nearly won outright at the Rams, losing by just 2 points.  They would have won the game outright had Ty Montgomery not fumbled the kickoff in the closing minutes.  I actually like that the Packers lost that game because it means they’ll be playing with even more of a sense of urgency today against the Pats.  Take Green Bay. 

6* Bucs/Panthers NFC South *CA$H COW* on Tampa Bay +6.5 

The Key: The Tampa Bay Bucs are a team I want to back with Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback.  He utilizes the plethora of weapons the Bucs have at receiver much better than Jameis Winston does.  He’s not afraid to go deep.  He led the Bucs back from 21 points down to nearly beat the Bengals last week, losing on a last-second field goal.  And with Fitz the Bucs are never out of any game.  That makes them scary as 6.5-point dogs to the Panthers today.  The back door will always be open if we need it.  Tampa is 8-0 ATS off a game where 70 points or more were scored in their last 8 tries.  The Panthers are 0-6 ATS off 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better.  Take Tampa Bay. 

7* AFC Game of the Year on Cleveland Browns +9 

The Key: Backing teams in their first game with a new head coach is certainly a profitable move long-term.  It gives that team new life and new hope, and the first game out is the time to back them.  I’ll back the Browns today because of it.  The Chiefs are 31st in total defense this season, which makes them vulnerable despite having one of the top offenses in the NFL.  The Chiefs are 1-9 ATS off 4 straight games where they gained 6 YPP or more in their last 10 tries.  Take Cleveland. 

6* Boston College/VA Tech ACC *CA$H COW* on Boston College -2 

The Key: Virginia Tech used to have a great home-field advantage.  But that is clearly no longer the case.  The Hokies are just 8-9 SU at home in ACC play over the last 5 seasons.  Boston College is a perfect 7-0 ATS in its last 7 ACC road games.  The Eagles travel well and should be able to beat a down Virginia Tech team that is 1-2 at home this season with blowout losses to both Notre Dame (23-45) and Georgia Tech (28-49).  Their only home win came against William & Mary.  And they also lost on the road to Old Dominion (35-49) as 28-point favorites earlier this season.  The Hokies have one of the youngest defenses in the country.  They are giving up 5.8 yards per carry in ACC play this year.  Boston College, which rushes for 230 yards per game this season, should have its way on the ground against the Hokies.  The Eagles are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 conference games.  The Eagles are 8-0 ATS off a home games over the last 2 seasons.  The Eagles are 14-3-1 ATS in their last 18 games overall.  Take Boston College. 

6* Georgia/Kentucky SEC *CA$H COW* on Kentucky +9.5 

The Key: Kentucky just gets no respect from oddsmakers.  The Wildcats are 9.5-point home dogs to the Georgia Bulldogs this week despite being 7-1 and ranked #9 in the country.  The Wildcats have earned that ranking by going 5-1 in ACC play with their only loss coming in overtime on the road at Texas A&M.  And I think they have what it takes to hang with Georgia this week.  Georgia looked vulnerable with its 16-36 road loss at LSU a few weeks back.  And the Bulldogs are coming off the Cocktail Party win over Florida last week, making this a precarious spot for them.  Kentucky’s defense is good enough to keep them in this game.  The Wildcats are yielding just 13 PPG and 295 YPG this season.  This will be the best ever atmosphere in Lexington for a college football game with the SEC East title essentially riding on the outcome.  Take Kentucky. 

6* Kansas State/TCU Big 12 *CA$H COW* on Kansas State +8 

The Key: The TCU Horned Frogs have hit rock bottom.  They are just 1-5 SU & 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.  Their only win came on a last-second field goal in a 17-14 home win over Iowa State as 11.5-point favorites.  They are coming off a 26-27 loss at Kansas as 13-point favorites.  Gary Patterson seems to have lost this team.  And injuries haven’t helped.  TCU recently lost its best playmakers on offense in KaVontae Turpin.  Two of the best defensive players are out for this game in LB Ty Summers and S Niko Small.  Kansas State certainly won’t quit on Bill Snyder.  The Wildcats are 3-1 ATS in their last 4 games overall with their only blowout loss coming at Oklahoma last week.  They played Texas to a 5-point game and Baylor to a 3-point game while upsetting Oklahoma State 31-12.  At 3-5 this season, the Wildcats have a great shot to win their next 3 games as they host Kansas and Texas Tech after this.  That would get them into a bowl game.  The Wildcats are 13-1 ATS in their last 14 games following a blowout road loss by 21 points or more.  Take Kansas State. 

7* NCAAF Independent Game of the Year on Liberty +2 

The Key: Liberty is the better of these two teams.  They sit at 4-3 on the season with wins over the likes of Troy and New Mexico.  And they’ve been competitive in most of their games.  Plus they had a bye last week to get ready to face UMass this week.  UMass is coming off a fortunate 22-17 victory at UConn last week as they trailed most the way.  And UConn is one of the worst teams in the country.  The Minutemen are just 3-6 this season with their other two wins coming against Duquesne and Charlotte.  All 6 of their losses have come by double-digits.  Now they have to face an option team here in Liberty.  The last time they faced an option team they lost 13-34 at Georgia Southern as 1.5-point underdogs on September 8th. Liberty is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 games as a road underdog.  Take Liberty. 

6* Iowa State/Kansas Big 12 *CA$H COW* on Iowa State -14.5 

The Key: The Iowa State Cyclones continue to fly under the radar.  Since Matt Campbell took over, this has been one of the greatest turnarounds of any program in the country.  The Cyclones have gone 23-6-1 ATS in their last 30 games overall, including 20-5-1 ATS in their last 26 conference games.  They have played the toughest schedule in the country and have gotten through with a 4-3 record.  And they’ve been in every game they’ve played with all 3 of their losses coming by 10 points or less to Iowa, Oklahoma and TCU.  They beat West Virginia handily at home, won at Oklahoma State, and handled Texas Tech at home last week.  Now they catch Kansas at a good time.  The Jayhawks are coming off a rare win in the Big 12 with a 27-26 upset victory over TCU last week.  That’s a TCU team that appears to have quit.  And I think the Jayhawks will suffer a letdown this week off that monumental win.  Look for the Cyclones to make easy work of them just as they did last season in a 45-0 win in Ames.  The Cyclones are 16-3 ATS in Saturday games over the last 2 seasons.  Take Iowa State. 

7* Colorado/Arizona NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Arizona -2.5 

The Key: Khalil Tate finally looked healthy for the first time all season last week as he returned from injury to face Oregon.  The Wildcats played their best game of the season in a 44-15 victory.  Tate threw for 189 yards and 3 touchdowns in the win.  And now the Wildcats are getting zero respect for that victory as only 2.5-point home favorites over Colorado Friday night.  I think the Wildcats remain hungry because they are 4-5 and need 2 more wins to make a bowl, and this game is a must-win if they want to get to a bowl because they have a road game at Washington State next time out that they’re unlikely to win.  And they get a bye next week so they certainly want to go into their bye with a taste of victory.  Colorado blew a huge lead against Oregon State last week and lost 34-41.  I think they could suffer a hangover from that defeat.  The Buffaloes have now lost 3 straight as the competition has ramped up.  Colorado is 0-7 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 2 of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons.  The Buffaloes are also 0-7 ATS after playing a game where 60 or more points were scores over the last 2 years.  Take Arizona. 

7* Raiders/49ers NFL *Total* Annihilator on OVER 44.5 

The Key: Both the 49ers and Raiders don’t play any defense.  The Raiders have been moving the ball on offense just fine and have to air it out now without a running game.  They scored 28 on the Colts last week but also gave up 42.  The 49ers have been moving the ball fine even without Jimmy G at quarterback.  Beathard is banged up but should be able to produce one of his best games of the season against the Raiders tonight, and even if Mullens has to play I like the 49ers’ chances of keeping pace with Carr and company.  Either way there won’t be much defense being played tonight.  Take the OVER. 

6* Ohio/Western Michigan MAC *CA$H COW* on Ohio -3 

The Key: The Ohio Bobcats were MAC title contenders coming into the season and now they are playing like it after a rough start in the non-conference.  They have gone 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall and 4-1 SU in their last 5 games.  Their only loss came on the road at Northern Illinois by a field goal, 21-24.  Their last two wins have been 49-14 over Bowling Green and 52-14 over Ball State.  Now they face a Western Michigan team coming off a 24-51 home loss to Toledo.  And the Broncos suffered a huge loss in that game when starting QB Jon Wassink suffered an ankle injury.  Wassink has thrown or 2,009 yards and 16 touchdowns with only 6 interceptions this season.  He also rushed for 6 scores.  It’s a big blow for the Broncos and a big downgrade to Kaleb Eleby at quarterback.  No question the Bobcats have the best QB in the MAC in Nathan Rourke, who has thrown 14 touchdowns with 5 interceptions, while also rushing for 569 yards and 6 scores.  I’ll take the team with the much better quarterback tonight.  The Bobcats are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 vs. a team with a winning record.  The Broncos are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 conference games.  Take Ohio. 

7* Ball State/Toledo MAC *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 66 

The Key: Ball State has several key injuries right now that will hamper their ability to score points.  Riley Neal means everything to this team at the quarterback position.  He was knocked out for the season in their last game and won’t be returning.  That leaves backup QB Drew Pitt to take the reigns.  Also, leading rusher James Gilbert is questionable to play tonight with a back injury.  They have some serious injuries on the offensive line as well.  For Toledo, starting QB Mitchell Guadagni is questionable with a shoulder injury, and even if he plays he won’t be 100%.  Ball State is 12-2 UNDER in its last 14 games as a road dog of 14.5 to 21 points.  The UNDER is 7-2-1 in Cardinals last 10 games overall.  The UNDER is 7-1 in Rockets last eight Wednesday games.  The UNDER is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.  The UNDER is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Toledo.  Take the UNDER. 

7* Kent State/Bowling Green MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Kent State +1.5 

The Key: Both Kent State and Bowling Green are 1-7 this season.  But it’s clear to me that Kent State is better than their record, while Bowling Green is every bit as poor as its record.  The only win for Bowling Green came 42-35 at home over Eastern Kentucky.  The lone win for Kent State came 54-14 over Howard, the same Howard team that only lost 32-38 to Ohio.  And Kent State has losses by 1, 1, and 7 points this season to Illinois, Ohio and Akron.  Bowling Green’s 7 losses have all come by 7 points or more, and 6 of them by 15 points or more.  These teams have 2 common opponents with both losing, the difference being Kent State only losing by 13 PPG while Bowling Green losing by 25 PPG.  The Golden Flashes are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 vs. teams who average 250 PYPG or more and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. teams who allow 230 RYPG or more.  The Falcons are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 home games following a loss.  The Falcons are 1-10 ATS when the total is between 63.5 and 70 over the last 3 years.  Take Kent State.