Sports Picks & Predictions

College Football Archive
Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
10-20-17	Colorado State v. New Mexico OVER 59		27-24	Loss	-110	11 h 51 m	Show
6* Colorado State/New Mexico NCAAF Friday Night Lights on OVER 59 The Key: This Colorado State offense has been lighting up scoreboards since the second half of last season. The OVER is 8-3 in Colorado State's last 11 games overall. They are coming off a 44-42 shootout victory over Nevada last week. The OVER is 11-3 in New Mexico's last 14 games on grass. The OVER is 20-8 in the Lobos' last 28 home games. These teams played in a 49-31 shootout last season with 80 combined points. I think we see a similar result here. Take the OVER.
10-19-17	UL-Lafayette +13 v. Arkansas State		3-47	Loss	-110	7 h 38 m	Show
6* Lafayette/Arkansas State Sun Belt CA$H COW on Louisiana-Lafayette +13 The Key: This scheduling spot favors the LA-Lafayette Rajin' Cajuns. They have had a full week to get ready for this game after playing last Thursday. Arkansas State is on a short week after playing on Saturday. And I think these teams are a lot more evenly-matched than this 13-point spread suggests. Plus, Lafayette has had Arkansas State's number in recent years. The Rajin' Cajuns are 6-3 SU & 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings. Take Lafayette.
10-15-17	Akron +13 v. Western Michigan	Top	14-13	Win	100	4 h 53 m	Show
7* MAC Game of the Year on Akron +13 The Key: I'm going to fade Western Michigan in this spot Sunday. The Broncos are coming off a 7-overtime 71-68 victory at Buffalo. I'm just not sure what they have left in the tank now, and not only do they have to win, but they have to win by 2 touchdowns to cover the spread against a game Akron team. This is an Akron team that has been competitive in every game outside of its Power 5 opponents in Penn State and Iowa State. But WMU didn't fare well in its two Power 5 games either against USC and Michigan State. I really think this game will be closer than the oddsmakers expect. The Zips are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning record. Take Akron.
10-14-17	Georgia Tech +6.5 v. Miami-FL		24-25	Win	100	13 h 52 m	Show
6* Miami/GA Tech ACC CA$H COW on Georgia Tech +6.5 The Key: The situation couldn't be better for Georgia Tech here. The Yellow Jackets are coming off their bye week. They should be 4-0 but they lost 41-42 to Tennessee despite outgaining them by 300 yards. They have outgained their 4 opponents by a combined 877 yards this season, or by an average of 219 yards per game. TaQuon Marshall may be the best QB in Georgia Tech history when it's all said and done. He has rushed for 523 yards and 9 scores, while averaging 10.1 yards per attempt passing and 4 touchdowns with 0 interceptions. Miami is primed for a letdown following a huge last-second 24-20 win at Florida State to end its losing streak to the Seminoles. Not to mention the Hurricanes lost their two best playmakers in that game in RB Mark Walton and WR Ahmmon Richards. Walton is out for the season, while Richards is questionable with a hamstring injury. Paul Johnson is 6-0 ATS in road games off 4 or more consecutive ATS wins as the coach of Georgia Tech. Mark Richt is 2-14 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a 75% or better win percentage in all games as a head coach. Take Georgia Tech.
10-14-17	Kansas v. Iowa State UNDER 65		0-45	Win	100	10 h 42 m	Show
6* Kansas/Iowa State Big 12 CA$H COW on UNDER 65 The Key: There is a 100% chance of rain in Ames, Iowa Saturday. Both the Jayhawks and Cyclones are going to be asked to run the football a lot due to the weather conditions. And neither of them have been very successful on the ground this season. Iowa State is averaging just 107 rushing yards per game, while Kansas is averaging 161. Iowa State has been good against the run, giving up 130 yards per game. The UNDER is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings. Iowa State and Kansas haven't combined for more than 55 points in any of their last 4 meetings. The Cyclones are 13-3 UNDER in their last 16 home games vs. a team with a losing record. The UNDER is 17-7 in Jayhawks last 24 road games. The UNDER is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings at Iowa State. Take the UNDER.
10-13-17	Clemson v. Syracuse OVER 57	Top	24-27	Loss	-110	8 h 38 m	Show
7* Clemson/Syracuse ACC Total of the Month on OVER 57 The Key: Look for a shootout in this ACC showdown between Clemson and Syracuse tonight. Dino Babers has brought his up-tempo game to Syracuse and they're having some success with it. They are scoring 32 points per game and averaging 467 yards per game this season. And they've played some great teams in LSU and NC State. Their defense leaves a lot to be desired, so a Clemson offense that is averaging 35 points and 471 yards per game should have its way. The Tigers hung 54 points on the Orange last year. But the Orange lost starting QB Eric Dungey in the first quarter of that game. Dungey is back healthy this season and playing very well. Clemson is 8-0 OVER in its last 8 games as a road favorite of 14.5 or more. Take the OVER.
10-12-17	Texas State v. UL-Lafayette -13.5		7-24	Win	100	8 h 35 m	Show
6* Texas State/Lafayette Sun Belt CA$H COW on Lafayette -13.5 The Key: The Lafayette Rajin' Cajuns should blow out Texas State like they usually do. Lafayette is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last 4 meetings with Texas State, winning all 4 games by 22 or more points. Texas State is once again one of the worst teams in college football this season. The Bobcats are 1-5 this season. They have lost by 30, 35 and 18 points in their last 3 games coming in. Their offense has been terrible in averaging just 14.5 points per game. Their defense hasn't been any better, giving up 33.7 points per game. Bets on home favorites of 10.5 to 21 points with a winning percentage between 40-49% on the season, in conference games are 37-13 ATS over the last 10 seasons. Take Lafayette.
10-11-17	South Alabama v. Troy OVER 49		19-8	Loss	-102	9 h 56 m	Show
6* South Alabama/Troy Sun Belt CA$H COW on OVER 49 The Key: I think the price is right to pull the trigger on the OVER in this game Wednesday. The value is there because of the fact that South Alabama and Troy have combined to go 9-1 to the under in their 10 games thus far. Now this is the lowest total of any game that they have played outside the 48.5-point total in the Troy/LSU game. The other nine have all been higher than 50 points. South Alabama is 6-0 OVER when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons. The OVER is 20-9 in Trojans last 29 home games, and 4-1 in Jaguars last 5 road games. Take the OVER.
10-07-17	Alabama v. Texas A&M +27	Top	27-19	Win	100	28 h 48 m	Show
7* SEC Game of the Year on Texas A&M +27 The Key: Alabama has won its last two games by a combined score of 125-3. It's safe to say the betting public is all over them now, which has inflated this number on the road against Texas A&M this week. The Aggies could easily be 5-0 if not for blowing a massive lead against UCLA in the opener. And Kevin Sumlin has found a way to be competitive against Nick Saban in recent years. The Aggies have only lost by more than 19 points once in their last five meetings since 2012, and that was on the road. Defensive coordinator John Chavis has turned this Aggies stop unit into a respectable one. And what can keep Texas A&M in this game is a run defense that is only giving up 96 rushing yards per game and 3.1 per carry this season. Bets on home dogs of 14.5 or more points off two or more consecutive wins, with a winning record on the season are 40-11 ATS since 1992. Take Texas A&M.
10-07-17	Arkansas -2.5 v. South Carolina		22-48	Loss	-115	24 h 28 m	Show
6* Arkansas/South Carolina SEC CA$H COW on Arkansas -2.5 The Key: The South Carolina Gamecocks are frauds, and that has shown the last few weeks. It also didn't help that they lost their best player in WR Deebo Samuel to a season-ending injury in Week 2. The Gameocks were outgained by 258 yards in their opener against South Carolina yet somehow won the game. Then they beat a bad Missouri team before falling at home to Kentucky 13-23. They barely beat a bad LA Tech team 17-16 at home, and then lost 17-24 at Texas A&M last week while getting outgained by 117 yards. Arkansas' only two losses have come against TCU and to Texas A&M in overtime. I think the Razorbacks are the better team, and they only have to win by a field goal or more to cover this spread. Arkansas is 13-2 ATS in its last 15 road games where the total is 45.5 to 49. Bets against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 after going under the total by 21 or more points total in their last three games, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 26-6 ATS since 1992. Take Arkansas.
10-07-17	Tulsa v. Tulane -4.5		28-62	Win	100	19 h 27 m	Show
6* AAC Game of the Week on Tulane -4.5 The Key: Good spot here for Tulane. The Green Wave had a bye last week following a grueling stretch against Navy, Oklahoma and Army in consecutive weeks. Now they'll be rejuvenated and they get to go up against a tired Tulsa team that hasn't had a bye and is coming off a grueling stretch of their own with Toledo, New Mexico and Navy in consecutive weeks. This is the perfect matchup for a run-heavy Tulane team that averages 244 rushing yards per game and 5.2 per carry. The Golden Hurricane allow 320 rushing yards and 6.7 per carry this season. The Green Wave are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Tulsa is 6-20 ATS in its last 26 after being outgianed by 125 or more yards in 2 consecutive games. The Green Wave are 17-6 ATS in their last 23 as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points. Take Tulane.
10-06-17	Boise State v. BYU +9	Top	24-7	Loss	-115	10 h 28 m	Show
7* Boise/BYU ESPN Friday Night Lights on BYU +9 The Key: The BYU Cougars are a prideful team and clearly aren't happy with their 1-4 start. They gave the game away against Utah State by committing a ridiculous 7 turnovers last week. They held Utah State to just 288 total yards to prove that their defense isn't broken. Boise State just can't be laying this kind of price on the road tonight with what we've seen from them so far. They lost their last game 23-42 at home to Virginia as 14-point favorites, failing to cover by 33 points. The home team is 6-0 SU in the last 6 meetings. The Cougars are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings with Boise State. The Broncos are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games overall. Boise State is 0-7 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 2 of its last 3 games over the last 3 seasons. Take BYU.
10-05-17	Louisville v. NC State +4.5	Top	25-39	Win	100	9 h 9 m	Show
7* Louisville/NC State ACC HEAVY HITTER on NC State +4.5 The Key: Louisville is just a one-man show with Lamar Jackson. He has a shaky offensive line, and now he's without his best receiver in Jaylen Smith due to a wrist injury. That makes this a bad matchup against NC State, which has one of the more underrated defensive lines in the country and NFL talent up front. Ryan Finley actually has a better QBR than Jackson this season. Finley has thrown 9 touchdowns and zero interceptions on the year. It's revenge time after NC State was blown out 13-54 at Louisville last season. It was a clear flat spot for the Wolfpack after they had lost in overtime to Clemson 17-24 the previous week. They didn't even show up. They will Thursday night in front of a packed home crowd to claim their revenge. Take NC State.
09-30-17	Nevada v. Fresno State -9	Top	21-41	Win	100	25 h 0 m	Show
7* Mountain West Game of the Year on Fresno State -9 The Key: I think the Fresno State Bulldogs are one of the most underrated teams in the country. They have been undervalued in the markets, going 3-0 ATS in their 3 games this season. They won 66-0 over Incarnate Ward, then had to play Alabama and Washington in back-to-back weeks. So their bye week came at the perfect time last week, and now they'll be fresh and ready to go in their Mountain West opener. Nevada is clearly not any good this season, going 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS. They lost at home to Idaho State as a 32.5-point favorite, then were punked 7-45 at Washington State the last two weeks. The Wolf Pack come in on normal rest and won't be nearly as fresh as Fresno. Jeff Tedford is one of the best offensive minds in college football, so look for Fresno to score at will here against this suspect Nevada defense. Fresno is 7-0 ATS in its last 7 after scoring 17 points or less in 2 straight games. The Bulldogs are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home games. Take Fresno State.
09-30-17	Clemson v. Virginia Tech +7.5		31-17	Loss	-115	23 h 14 m	Show
6* Clemson/VA Tech ACC Game of the Week on Virginia Tech +7.5 The Key: Virginia Tech showed it could play with eventual national champion Clemson in a 35-42 loss last year in the ACC Championship Game on a neutral field. Now they get their shot at revenge on the Tigers at home in Blacksburg with ESPN College Game Day on site. It's safe to say it's going to be a madhouse. I fully expect the Hokies to pull the upset, but we'll take the 7.5 points just in case. Clemson was actually tied 7-7 with Boston College at home last week as 33-point favorites, so they are vulnerable. The Hokies are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall. The Hokies are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Take Virginia Tech.
09-30-17	Akron -2.5 v. Bowling Green		34-23	Win	100	21 h 0 m	Show
6* MAC Game of the Week on Akron -2.5 The Key: I think Akron is still one of the better teams in the MAC. But they are flying under the radar because of their 1-3 start. That's solely due to playing a brutal schedule with games at Penn State and Troy, and a home game against Iowa State. They were double-digit dogs in all three games. The blew out Arkansas-Pine Bluff 52-33 in between. Bowling Green is 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS and not only one of the worst teams in the MAC, but one of the worst in the country. They lost by 42 at Northwestern, and even lost at home to FCS foe South Dakota. Bowling Green is 0-7 ATS off a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons. The Falcons are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 September games. Take Akron.
09-30-17	Miami-OH +21.5 v. Notre Dame		17-52	Loss	-115	20 h 9 m	Show
6* Miami/Notre Dame Non-Conference CA$H COW on Miami +21.5 The Key: Off a big win at Michigan State last week, and with UNC on deck, the Notre Dame Fighting Irish could be in a flat spot here. And now they're up against a pesky Miami Ohio team that will fight them for four quarters. Miami won their final 6 games last year and easily could be 4-0 this year. They lost 26-31 at Marshall despite outgaining them by 162 yards. They also lost 17-21 to Cincinnati and blew a big lead in the 4th quarter. Notre Dame was outgained by 141 yards by Michigan State last week as that 38-18 final couldn't have been more misleading. The Redhawks are 9-2 ATS as a dog over the last 2 seasons. The Redhawks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games. The Fighting Irish are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games following an ATS win. Take Miami.
09-30-17	Eastern Michigan +14.5 v. Kentucky		20-24	Win	100	19 h 60 m	Show
6* NCAAF Non-Conference Game of the Week on Eastern Michigan +14.5 The Key: The Kentucky Wildcats are not in a good state of mind right now after blowing yet another late lead and losing to Florida, 28-27 last week. They have now lost 31 straight to the Gators. Now they have to step back out of conference and try and get motivated to play a MAC team, and I don't believe they will be. They only beat Eastern Kentucky 27-16 earlier this season as 33-point favorites. They have yet to win any game by more than 11 points this season. Now they're up against a game Eastern Michigan squad that made a bowl last year and returned 18 starters. EMU already upset Rutgers on the road, too. They can hang with Kentucky here. The Eagles are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. a team with a winning record. The Eagles are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games. The Wildcats are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games. Take Kentucky.
09-29-17	Miami-FL v. Duke +7	Top	31-6	Loss	-125	11 h 0 m	Show
7* Miami/Duke ACC HEAVY HITTER on Duke +7 The Key: Duke has been grossly underrated to start the season. The Blue Devils are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS, winning all four games by double-digits over NC Central (60-7), Northwestern (41-17), Baylor (34-20) and UNC (27-17). I think they continue being underrated here as 7-point home dogs to Miami. The Blue Devils have played the Hurricanes tough at home, not losing once by more than 7 points in their last 3 home meetings. Take Duke.
09-28-17	Texas v. Iowa State OVER 62		17-7	Loss	-107	7 h 50 m	Show
6* Texas/Iowa State Big 12 Total Annihilator on OVER 62 The Key: The Iowa State Cyclones hung 41 points on a very good Iowa defense. In fact, they have scored 40-plus points in all 3 games this season. They will be able to keep soaring on offense against a leaky Texas defense that gave up 51 points to Maryland. The Longhorns should only get better offensively as the season goes on under Tom Herman, and I expect them to have several new wrinkles on offense with two weeks to get ready for this game. Expect another patented Big 12 shootout in this game Thursday night. The Cyclones are 6-0 OVER off a win by 17 points or more over the last 3 seasons. The OVER is 10-0-1 in Cyclones last 11 games following a win. Take the OVER.
09-23-17	Toledo v. Miami-FL -13.5		30-52	Win	100	7 h 54 m	Show
6* Saturday NCAAF Non-Conference BLOWOUT on Miami -13.5 The Key: The Miami Hurricanes have a real shot to win the ACC this season. Mark Richt has a loaded team that went 9-4 last season. I think the Hurricanes are flying under the radar right now because they haven't played in 3 weeks. And the betting public hasn't heard from them, so nobody is on them right now. They should be favored by more than 2 touchdowns against Toledo. This is a Toledo team that only beat Tulsa 54-51 last week at home, and that's a Tulsa team that lost by 35 at Oklahoma State. I think Miami is on Oklahoma State's level. And you have to think the Rockets are going to be a little gassed after that shootout with Tulsa. The Hurricanes are 7-0 ATS after scoring 37 points or more in their previous game over the last 3 seasons. Take Miami.
09-23-17	Central Florida v. Maryland -4		38-10	Loss	-105	6 h 24 m	Show
6* UCF/Maryland Non-Conference CA$H COW on Maryland -4 The Key: The Maryland Terrapins are one of the most underrated teams in the country. DJ Durkin has a tremendous coaching staff that came through with a Top 20 recruiting class over the offseason. Things are on the rise here. And Maryland's 51-41 win at Texas as 19-point dogs in the opener looks even better now. Texas went on to beat San Jose State 56-0, and then took USC to overtime on the road in a 24-27 loss. UCF is a team that will be a contender in the AAC this season, but Maryland is in a different class in my opinion. That will show on the field Saturday. Take Maryland.
09-23-17	Arkansas +3 v. Texas A&M	Top	43-50	Loss	-110	3 h 15 m	Show
7* Arkansas/Texas A&M SEC West Game of the Year on Arkansas +3 The Key: The Arkansas Razorbacks are coming off a bye week. So they've had two full weeks to get ready for Texas A&M. And boy, do they ever want revenge on the Aggies. They have lost 5 straight meetings with Texas A&M over the last 5 seasons, including two of the last three in overtime. The Aggies are clearly down this season and vulnerable, so this is their chance to have their revenge. They lost at UCLA in the opener, only beat Nicholls State 24-14 as 37.5-point favorites, and actually trailed UL Lafayette 21-14 at halftime last week as 23.5-point favorites. Arkansas did lose to TCU, but the Horned Frogs are one of the better teams in the country, so that's not a bad loss. The Aggies are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games overall. The Razorbacks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a bye week. Texas A&M is 0-8 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread over the last 2 seasons. Take Arkansas
09-22-17	Virginia v. Boise State -12.5		42-23	Loss	-110	7 h 24 m	Show
6* NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Boise State -12.5 The Key: The Boise State Broncos have been terrible ATS at home over the last few seasons. That has provided some line value here on them moving forward, and I think this -12.5 spread is a bargain against an awful Virginia team that is rebuilding. Take Boise State.
09-21-17	Temple v. South Florida -19.5		7-43	Win	100	6 h 54 m	Show
6* Temple/USF AAC CA$H COW on South Florida -19.5 The Key: The South Florida Bulls had their get right game last week with a 47-23 win over Illinois. The Bulls amassed 680 total yards in that win and have one of the best offenses in the country. This is an offense that has put up at least 30 points in 19 consecutive games now. That makes it easier to lay big numbers knowing that they can score. Temple has looked terrible in its 3 games this season. The Owls were blown out at Notre Dame, and then they easily could have lost to both Villanova and UMass at home in wins by a combined 11 points. They were outgained by both of those teams. USF will want revenge from a 46-30 loss to Temple last year that basically decided the AAC champ. The Bulls are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 home games. Take South Florida.
09-16-17	Texas +16 v. USC	Top	24-27	Win	100	16 h 13 m	Show
7* Texas/USC Non-Conference HEAVY HITTER on Texas +16 The Key: Tom Herman has been an underdog 11 times in his career as a coordinator for Ohio State and as a head coach at Houston. His teams have gone a PERFECT 11-0 SU & 11-0 ATS in those 11 games. The Longhorns are flying under the radar now after getting upset by Maryland in the opener. They got right with a 56-0 win over San Jose State last week. Look for USC to have a bit of an emotional letdown here after their huge win over USC last week. Take Texas.
09-16-17	Cincinnati v. Miami-OH -4.5		21-17	Loss	-110	16 h 33 m	Show
6* NCAAF Favorite of the Week on Miami (Ohio) -4.5 The Key: The Miami Ohio Redhawks may be the best team in the MAC this season. This is a team that made a bowl game last year after their 0-6 start by winning their final 6 games. They returned 17 starters from that squad this year. I think their 26-31 loss at Marshall has them flying under the radar. But they outgained Marshall by 162 yards in that game and should have won. Cincinnati and Miami have both hosted Austin Peay. Miami won 31-10, while Cincinnati only won 26-14. Cincinnati is going to have a hard time getting motivated for this game after playing at Michigan last week, and with another big game at Navy on deck next week. The Bearcats are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 non-conference games. The Home team is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 meetings. The Bearcats are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings. Take Miami Ohio.
09-16-17	Georgia State +37.5 v. Penn State		0-56	Loss	-110	15 h 13 m	Show
6* NCAAF Dog of the Week on Georgia State +37.5 The Key: The Georgia State Panthers were upset in their opener by Tennessee State as 15-point favorites. They gave that game away by committing 4 turnovers. Now they are flying under the radar after that poor performance, and they've had 2 full weeks to fix their issues and prepare for Penn State. This is a clear flat spot for the Nittany Lions. They just played in-state rival Pitt last week, and though they won 33-14, they were actually outgained by the Panthers by 30 yards. Now they have their Big Ten opener at Iowa on deck next week, making this a sandwich spot. James Franklin will be more worried about keeping everyone healthy than blowing the doors off Georgia State. This is a Georgia State team that only lost 17-23 as 34-point road dogs at Wisconsin last year, and they have 15 starters back from that squad. They can hang around here. The Panthers are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games as a road underdog. The Panthers are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Take Georgia State.
09-15-17	UMass +15 v. Temple		21-29	Win	100	7 h 1 m	Show
6* NCAAF Friday Night Lights on UMass +15 The Key: The UMass Minutemen have had a hard-luck start to the 2017 season. They are 0-3, but all 3 of their losses have come by 10 points or less. The Temple Owls are clearly rebuilding this year with the loss of Matt Rhule and 12 starters from last year's team. That showed in their 16-49 loss to Notre Dame and their fortunate 16-13 win over Villanova. Temple shouldn't be this heavy of a favorite against a UMass team they only beat 25-23 two years ago. Take UMass.
09-09-17	Stanford +5.5 v. USC	Top	24-42	Loss	-110	13 h 25 m	Show
7* Stanford/USC Pac-12 HEAVY HITTER on Stanford +5.5 The Key: The Stanford Cardinal simply own the USC Trojans. They have gone 7-2 SU in the last 9 meetings, and both of their losses came by exactly 3 points. That's important when you consider this spread is 5.5. David Shaw is not only 8-2 ATS in his last 10 games as an underdog, but also 8-2 SU in those games. USC did not look good against Western Michigan in the opener in a 49-31 win as they pulled away in the 4th quarter. Stanford couldn't have looked better in its 62-7 win over Rice. Plus the Cardinal have had 2 weeks off since that game to get ready for USC. The Trojans allowed a ridiculous 263 rushing yards to Western Michigan. The Cardinal are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 trips to USC. Take Stanford.
09-09-17	North Texas v. SMU -13.5		32-54	Win	100	12 h 55 m	Show
6* Saturday NCAAF BLOWOUT on SMU -13.5 The Key: I'm very high on SMU this season and believe they'll make a bowl game for the first time since 2012. It's the 3rd year under Chad Morris, which is where teams make their most improvement. And he has 14 starters back this season, including 9 on an offense that put up 427 yards per game last year. Each of the top 4 receivers are back, as is 1,000-yard rusher Braeden West. SMU won 34-21 at North Texas last year and outgained them by 178 total yards. They won 31-13 at home in 2015 and outgained them by 206 yards. Expect more of the same here considering this is Morris' best team yet. The Mean Green are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. Take SMU.
09-09-17	Northwestern v. Duke UNDER 55		17-41	Loss	-110	5 h 56 m	Show
6* Saturday NCAAF Total Annihilator on Northwestern/Duke UNDER 55 The Key: Northwestern and Duke have both struggled offensively throughout the years. Expect more of the same in 2017. These teams have met each of the last 2 years. Northwestern won 29-10 in 2015 and 24-13 in 2016 for 39 and 37 combined points, respectively. Dating back further, NW & Duke have combined for 54 or fewer points in 10 straight meetings. That makes for a 10-0 angle backing the UNDER when factoring in this 55-point total. Take the UNDER.
09-08-17	Ohio v. Purdue -3		21-44	Win	100	8 h 47 m	Show
6* Ohio/Purdue NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Purdue -3 The Key: Jeff Brohm stepped into a good situation at Purdue. The Boilermakers already had a capable offense last year, it was their defense that let them down. Brohm is an offensive guru with what he did at Western Kentucky over the past few seasons. And the Boilermakers are only going to be better under him. He came up with a good game plan against Louisville and they surprised, only losing 28-35 as 25.5-point dogs. They even committed four turnovers in that game, yet still hung tough. If they can hang with a power like Louisville at home, they should be able to take care of business against a MAC opponent in Ohio here. Frank Solich is 2-10 ATS after scoring 50 points or more last game in all games he has coached. Take Purdue.
09-04-17	Tennessee -3 v. Georgia Tech	Top	42-41	Loss	-110	74 h 53 m	Show
7* GA Tech/Tennessee ACC vs SEC HEAVY HITTER on Tennessee -3 The Key: Tennessee has a big edge in talent over Georgia Tech. Butch Jones is a master recruiter and he has finally put the Vols back on the map. They were the best team in the SEC East last season as they beat Florida, but played a brutal schedule and suffered a couple of upsets in letdown games. Georgia Tech lost its best triple-option QB maybe ever in Justin Thomas to graduation. That offense won't click as well without him. The Vols are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games. They have dominated the bowl games under Jones, and they will make easy work of this middle of the road ACC team here Monday night. Take Tennessee.
09-03-17	West Virginia v. Virginia Tech OVER 51.5		24-31	Win	100	49 h 19 m	Show
6* WVU/VA Tech Total Annihilator on OVER 51.5 The Key: Dana Holgorsen is one of the best offensive minds in the game. His WVU Mountaineers have averaged at least 31 points in three straight seasons. Now he has one of his best QB's yet in Will Grier, who transferred in from Florida and was the best QB the Gators have had since Tim Tebow. Similarly, Justin Fuente is also a great offensive mind. He did wonders at Memphis with Paxton Lynch, and he in his first season at VA Tech, he led the Hokies to their most productive offensive season in years. They averaged 35 PPG last season. WVU had a great defense last year, but that won't be the case in 2017 because they lost 8 starters and 8 of their top 11 tacklers on defense. This is a very low total at 51.5, and I think this one flies OVER the number. The OVER is 13-3 in Hokies last 16 non-conference games, including 8-1 in their last 9 September games. Take the OVER.
09-02-17	Maryland v. Texas OVER 56		51-41	Win	100	18 h 51 m	Show
6* Maryland/Texas NCAAF CA$H COW on OVER 56 The Key: Tom Herman brings his offensive juggernaut with him to Texas and has even more talent to work with than he had in Houston the past two years. Herman led Houston to 40.4 and 35.8 PPG the past two seasons, respectively. Now he inherits a Texas offense that put up 491 yards per game last season and returns 7 starts, including QB Shane Buchele and 4 starters on the O-line. Texas can pretty much name it score here against Maryland, which allowed 38 to Penn State, 59 to Michigan and 62 to Ohio State last year. But the Terrapins do have some talent on offense, especially in the backfield with Ty Johnson (1,031 yards, 9.1/carry) and Lorenzo Harrison (664 yards, 7.2/carry). They'll score enough to help push this game OVER the total. Take the OVER.
09-02-17	Kent State +40 v. Clemson		3-56	Loss	-110	18 h 50 m	Show
6* NCAAF Dog of the Week on Kent State +40 The Key: Clemson is coming off a national title and the loss of Deshaun Watson. I don't expect the Tigers to be firing on all cylinders in Week 1. Kent State has a good defense that gave up 387 yards per game last season. The Golden Flashes will be competitive here. They lost 48-0 at Alabama last year as 43-point dogs. This is a similar point spread, but I don't think this Clemson team is nearly as good as that Alabama team was last year. Kent State lost by 20 at Penn State last season as well. This team is used to playing upper-echelon programs and won't be overwhelmed. I think they'll stay within 40 here with relative ease. Clemson has Auburn next week and will take the starters out early in this one. Bets against home favorites of 21.5 or more points in the first 2 weeks of the season, after closing last year with 4 or more wins in their last 5 games, a team that won 80% or more of their games against a team that won 25% to 40% from last year are 26-6 ATS since 1992. Take Kent State.
09-02-17	Ball State v. Illinois -6.5	Top	21-24	Loss	-110	18 h 51 m	Show
7* NCAAF Game of the Week on Illinois -6.5 The Key: The Illinois Fighting Illini were in a clear rebuilding year last season under Lovie Smith. They went just 3-9 and now are getting no attention heading into 2017. These are the teams I like to back. Smith will be more successful in year two. The Fighting Illini open as only 6.5-point favorites over a middle-of-the-pack MAC team. The Illini clearly have more talent, and I look for that to show on the field here Saturday. This defense returns 4 of the top 5 tacklers from last year and will be better. The offense should hold its own, especially on the ground with both Kendrick Foster (5.7/carry) and Reggie Corbin (6.1/carry) back to lead the way. Leading receiver Malik Turner is back, as is Mike Dudeck, who has over 1,000 receiving yards as a freshman but missed last season with a torn ACL. Ball State only has 4 starters back on defense after giving up 30.1 points and 470 yards per game last season. The Illini should have plenty of success on the ground and through the air against their soft D. They'll easily win by a TD or more. Take Illinois.
09-01-17	Colorado State v. Colorado -3.5		3-17	Win	100	6 h 45 m	Show
6* Colorado State/Colorado Rivalry CA$H COW on Colorado -3.5 The Key: The Colorado State Rams are the flavor of the week right now. They just beat Oregon State 58-27 last Saturday at home. But the Beavers gave that game away by committing 5 turnovers. Now the Rams are on a short week here, while the Buffaloes have been able to spend the offseason training to face Colorado State, while the Rams had to focus on Oregon State. I love this spot for the Buffaloes. They are flying under the radar again this year after winning 10 games last year. Nobody wants to give them any credit. They do lose a lot on defense, but the offense brings back 9 starters and should be even better in 2017. Colorado State has an awful defense, but that is getting overlooked. The Buffaloes have won 5 of their last 7 meetings with the Rams, including a 44-7 beat down last year. Colorado is 7-0 ATS in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Take Colorado.
08-31-17	New Mexico State v. Arizona State -22	Top	31-37	Loss	-115	11 h 44 m	Show
7* NMSU/ASU Non-Conference BAILOUT on Arizona State -22 The Key: The Arizona State Sun Devils are flying under the radar heading into 2017. They had won 10 games in back-to-back seasons in 2013 and 2014, but slipped to 6-7 in 2015 and 5-7 in 2016. They opened 5-1 last year but lost their final 6 games. But this is a team that returns 13 starters after having just 10 back last year. The offense will be one of the best in the Pac-12, and the defense cannot be as bad as it was a year ago. Following those 6 straight losses to close out last season, the Sun Devils have been hungry all offseason, and they're prepared to take out their frustration on lowly New Mexico State tonight. The Aggies went 3-9 last season. When they stepped up in competition they did not fare well. They lost 42-62 at Kentucky, 6-52 at Troy, 23-55 at Idaho, 10-52 at Texas A&M and 7-37 to Appalachian State. They have a lot back but this team is simply outclassed here. Take Arizona State.
08-26-17	Hawaii v. UMass -3	Top	38-35	Loss	-110	9 h 26 m	Show
7* Hawaii/UMass NCAAF HEAVY HITTER on UMass -3 The Key: Last year UMass had just 9 returning starters and went from playing an easy MAC schedule to a much tougher Independent schedule. They went just 2-10, but were only outgained by 97 yards per game. They are a much more veteran squad this year with 15 returning starters and the schedule gets easier. The Minutemen played Hawaii in the regular season finale last year. The Warriors needed a win to make a bowl, so they had a lot more to play for. But UMass gave them everything they wanted at Hawaii and only lost 40-46. Now they get their shot at revenge right away in 2017, this time at home. Amazingly, Hawaii is 1-23 in true road games over on the mainland over the past 4 seasons. The Warriors are getting too much love here from oddsmakers. Take UMass.
01-09-17	Clemson +6.5 v. Alabama	Top	35-31	Win	100	56 h 24 m	Show
7* Alabama/Clemson National Championship HEAVY HITTER on Clemson +6.5 The Key: The Clemson defense just shut out a very good Ohio State offense. I think the Tigers have the front seven that can make life very difficult for Jalen Hurts and company. The Crimson Tide basically did nothing outside of a 68-yard run by Bo Scarbrough against Washington last week in which he broke like 10 tackles. The offense only accounted for 17 points. Hurts only threw for 57 yards in the win. Clemson put up 550 yards on Alabama's defense along with 40 points last year. Deshaun Watson is rolling right now and ready to cap off his Clemson career with a National Title. Dabo Swinney certainly knows how to coach in big games, winning 5 of his last 6 bowl games while going 6-0 ATS despite being an underdog in all 6 contests. The lone loss was that 5-point setback against Alabama last year. I don't think Alabama can win by a TD or more, and I actually think Clemson wins this game outright, so a play on the money line would be a good bet as well. Take Clemson.
01-02-17	USC -7 v. Penn State	Top	52-49	Loss	-125	5 h 1 m	Show
7* USC/Penn State Rose Bowl HEAVY HITTER on USC -7 The Key: The USC Trojans come into this game playing as well as anyone in the country. They have won 8 straight with 7 of those victories coming by at least 13 points. They have outgained 9 straight opponents, Sam Darnold is one of the best quarterbacks in the land, and the defense has really stepped up. Penn State has overachieved this season. It was a good story, but this team doesn't have the horses to matchup with an athletic, talented team like USC. And the Big Ten is clearly overrated as we just saw their top two teams in Ohio State and Michigan get beat 31-0 by Clemson and by Florida State, respectively. And I don't believe Penn State is as good as either Ohio State or Michigan, and USC is every bit as good if not better than Clemson and Florida State. The Trojans are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games overall. Take USC.
12-31-16	Washington +14.5 v. Alabama	Top	7-24	Loss	-115	4 h 22 m	Show
7* Washington/Alabama Playoff HEAVY HITTER on Washington +14.5 The Key: Chris Petersen is one of the best head coaches in the country that nobody talks about. He has been a great bet in the underdogs role. Petersen is 6-0 ATS as a dog with two or more weeks to get ready for an opponent. He will give the Huskies their best chance to beat the Alabama Crimson Tide. The Huskies rank in the Top 10 in the country in both offensive and defensive efficiency. They are the best team that the Crimson Tide will have played. This is too many points in a game that I think goes right down to the wire. Take Washington.
12-30-16	South Alabama +14 v. Air Force	Top	21-45	Loss	-103	12 h 29 m	Show
7* Friday NCAAF Bowl HEAVY HITTER on South Alabama +14 The Key: The Sun Belt has shown extremely well in these bowl games. They are 4-1 as a conference. Appalachian State beat Toledo as underdogs, Arkansas State topped UCF 31-13 as dogs, Idaho won 61-50 over Colorado as 15-point dogs and Troy beat Ohio 28-23 and covered as 4.5-point favorites. The only loss was LA-Lafayette as 6.5-point dogs in a 7-point loss to Southern Miss. I think South Alabama is getting way too many points here against Air Force. The Jaguars have pulled some huge upsets already this season. They beat Mississippi State 21-20 as 28-point road dogs, and they also upset San Diego State 42-24 as 19.5-point home dogs. They are fully capable of beating Air Force here, let alone staying within two touchdowns. Air Force is 0-6 ATS vs. poor rushing defenses that allow 4.75 or more yards per carry over the last 2 seasons. I think the extra time to prepare will have the Jaguars ready for the Falcons' triple-option. Take South Alabama.
12-29-16	Oklahoma State v. Colorado -2.5		38-8	Loss	-115	8 h 28 m	Show
6* Oklahoma State/Colorado Bowl CA$H COW on Colorado -2.5 The Key: The Colorado Buffaloes managed to win 10 games this season despite playing the 8th-most difficult schedule in the country. Their 3 losses were to Washington, USC and Michigan, 3 of the top teams in the country. I think they handle this Oklahoma State team that is overrated due to finishing tied for 2nd in the down Big 12. The Cowboys only played the 61st-most difficult schedule this season. Colorado's pass defense is one of the best in the nation, making this a very good matchup for them because the Cowboys like to sling it around. I'll back the better defense and the more physical Buffaloes who are ecstatic to be playing in the Alamo Bowl. Take Colorado.
12-28-16	Indiana v. Utah -6	Top	24-26	Loss	-110	7 h 27 m	Show
7* Indiana/Utah Bowl HEAVY HITTER on Utah -6 The Key: The Utah Utes have been a great bowl bet for years. They have gone 15-4 in their last 19 bowl games overall. They are 9-1 under Kyle Whittingham alone. The Utes have beat up on the Big Ten as well, going 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six matchups with that conference. Indiana barely made a bowl game at 6-6 after beating Purdue 26-24 in the season finale despite being 21-point favorites. The Hoosiers lost their head coach in Kevin Wilson, and there is clearly some distractions around the program because of it. Utah went 8-4 this season with its 4 losses coming by a total of 19 points. The Utes were one of the best teams in the Pac-12 this year. Take Utah.
12-27-16	Baylor +7.5 v. Boise State	Top	31-12	Win	100	11 h 40 m	Show
7* Baylor/Boise Cactus Bowl BAILOUT on Baylor +7.5 The Key: We are getting extra points here with Baylor because they have lost 6 straight games coming into the bowl season. There were getting extra points in their finale against West Virginia as well, covering as 17-point dogs in an impressive 3-point road loss. Boise State is once again laying too many points as it has been all season. The Broncos are just 3-9 ATS in their 12 lined games this year. The Bears will be the more talented team on the field in the Cactus Bowl. They boast the nation's No. 5 ranked offense at 543 yards per game. They can run the football as well as almost anyone, and Boise State allows 180 rushing yards per game despite playing such a soft schedule. Boise is 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games vs. good rushing teams that average 4.8 or more yards per carry. Baylor averages 250 rushing yards per game and 5.1 per carry. Take Baylor.
12-26-16	Maryland v. Boston College +2	Top	30-36	Win	100	3 h 9 m	Show
7* Maryland/BC Quick Lane Bowl HEAVY HITTER on Boston College +2 The Key: Boston College pulled the 17-14 upset at Wake Forest to punch its ticket to the postseason in the season finale. The Eagles are very excited to be here after winning their final 2 games. Their offense isn't great but was improved this year, and they had the 12th-ranked defense in the country according to our rankings. Maryland doesn't do any one thing well and was a bad team this year. Of the Terrapins' six wins, four have been against teams outside the Top 100, and hteir best win by far was against a 3-9 Michigan State team. The Terrapins have no passing game and can only run the football on offense. Well, that makes this a great matchup for the Eagles, who give up just 107 rushing yards per game and 3.3 per carry. The Terrapins give up 218 rushing yards per game and 4.9 per carry this season. Maryland is 0-6 ATS off a conference win over the last 3 seasons. The Terrapins are 3-15 ATS in their last 18 games following a straight up win. The Eagles are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games. Take Boston College.
12-23-16	Eastern Michigan +6 v. Old Dominion	Top	20-24	Win	100	7 h 16 m	Show
7* Eastern Michigan/Old Dominion NCAAF HEAVY HITTER on Eastern Michigan +6 The Key: It's safe to say that the Eastern Michigan Eagles are happy to be going bowling. After all, they haven't been to a bowl game in 29 years. The Eagles haven't been handed anything this year. They've earned it with a pair of wins over conference championship participants in Ohio (MAC) and Wyoming (Mountain West). The Eagles are led by three-time MAC Offensive Player of the Week Brogan Roback, who guided an offense that set school records for total offense (5,447), passing offense (3,549) and total points (396). The offensive line has allowed the 12th-fewest sacks in the national and the second-fewest tackles for loss. There is another motivational angle that favors the Eagles. They want revenge from a 38-34 loss to Old Dominion last season, and they are far and away better than they were last season. The Eagles are 7-0 ATS off 1 or more consecutive unders this season. The Eagles are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. The Monarchs are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games. Take Eastern Michigan.
12-20-16	Memphis +7 v. Western Kentucky		31-51	Loss	-115	6 h 42 m	Show
6* Memphis/WKU ESPN National TV Annihilator on Memphis +7 The Key: The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers lost head coach Jeff Brohm to Purdue. He is a bigger loss than most head coaches because he calls the plays on offense. And the Hilltoppers have had one of the best offenses in the country since he took over. They are sure to suffer a little bit on that side of the ball with Brohm's departure. I don't think these WKU players are going to be all that motivated to win this bowl game because their season is already a success after winning Conference USA. Memphis went 8-4 this season against a tougher schedule than what WKU faced. The Tigers beat the likes of Houston and Temple, which are two better wins than anything WKU has. And the Tigers can match the Hilltoppers score for score with an offense that averages 39.5 points per game and played even better down the stretch, scoring 51, 42, 34 and 48 points in their final 4 games, respectively. The Tigers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 vs. C-USA foes. The Hilltoppers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games. Take Memphis.
12-17-16	Texas-San Antonio v. New Mexico -7.5	Top	20-23	Loss	-110	11 h 46 m	Show
7* UTSA/New Mexico NCAAF HEAVY HITTER on New Mexico -7.5 The Key: The New Mexico Lobos will be playing in their hometown bowl for a second consecutive season. After falling just short in a 37-45 loss to Arizona last year, they will be hungry to earn their first bowl win since 2007 Saturday. That's why I'm not concerned about any lack of motivation playing in this bowl game again. Bob Davie has done as good a coaching job as anyone in the country. He got them to their first bowl since 2007 last year, and now the Lobos have a chance to win 9 games. Davie has this Lobos' offense hitting on all cylinders with 37.8 points per game and a FBS-best 361 rushing yards per game. The Lobos have a big-play offense with two running backs in Teriyon Gipson (1,209 yards, 12 TD) and Tyrone Owens (1,084 yards, 7 TD) who both average over 8.0 yards per carr on the season. UTSA's offense is only averaging 376 yards per game and 5.4 yards per play this season. They don't have the firepower to keep up with the Lobos in this one. New Mexico is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games off an upset win over a conference opponent as a home dog. The Lobos come in confident after throttling Wyoming 56-35 as 3-point dogs in their season finale. They put up 690 total yards on the Cowboys, who went on to play in the MWC Championship Game. The Roadrunners are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win. Take New Mexico.
12-03-16	UL-Lafayette v. UL-Monroe +6.5		30-3	Loss	-110	21 h 14 m	Show
6* Saturday NCAAF UPSET SPECIAL on Louisiana-Monroe +6.5 The Key: This has been a very closely-contested in-state rivalry. Six of the last 7 meetings between UL-Monroe and UL-Lafayette have been decided by a touchdown or less. Monroe has played pretty well at home this year, beating both South Alabama and Texas State, while only losing to Idaho by 3. That's an Idaho team that is 5-2 in Sen Belt play this year. The Warhawks have been running the ball well in conference play as they average 204.3 rushing yards per game. Lafayette is in a prime letdown spot in this game. It beat Arkansas State 24-19 at home last week, handing the Red Wolves their first conference loss of the season. But the Rajin' Cajuns were thoroughly outplayed in that game as they were outgained by 229 yards. They shouldn't be laying nearly a touchdown on the road to the Warhawks a week later in this clear letdown spot, especially considering the Warhawks have had 2 full weeks to prepare for this game after last playing on November 19. The underdog is 16-2-1 ATS in the last 19 meetings. Take Louisiana-Monroe.
12-03-16	Oklahoma State +11 v. Oklahoma	Top	20-38	Loss	-110	19 h 44 m	Show
7* Okie State/Oklahoma Big 12 HEAVY HITTER on Oklahoma State +11 The Key: This is a much more evenly-matched game than this spread would indicate, and thus I find value on the double-digit underdog in this rivalry game with the Big 12 title at stake. Oklahoma State is outscoring teams by 13.2 PPG this season and Oklahoma by 14.8 PPG. The Sooners can't be trusted to cover this big number because they have their worst defense in years. They allow 30.5 points, 443 yards per game and 5.9 yards per play this season. Two of the three meetings between these teams between 2012 and 2014 went to overtime, and the other was decided by 9 points. But the Cowboys will be out for revenge from their 58-23 loss to the Sooners last year. That was closer than the score as the Sooners only outgained the Cowboys by 67 yards. The Cowboys have actually played their best on the road this season as they won 44-20 at Kansas, 43-37 at Kansas State and 31-6 at TCU. They were dogs in those latter two games. The Cowboys are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games after rushing for more than 200 yards in their previous game. The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Take Oklahoma State.
12-03-16	Temple v. Navy UNDER 61		34-10	Win	100	18 h 14 m	Show
6* Temple/Navy AAC Championship CA$H COW on UNDER 61 The Key: Navy has been putting up video game-type numbers offensively of late against very suspect defenses, which has inflated this total. They scored 75 on SMU just last week to cover the over themselves. But now they'll be up against one of the best defenses they've faced all year. Temple only gives up 17.8 points and 273 yards per game. And the Owls are elite at stopping the run, giving up only 128 rushing yards per game and 3.6 per carry. I don't expect either team to get to 30 points in this game as it's played on the ground as both teams prefer to run the football. Temple averages 42 rushes compared to 27 passes per game. There will be plenty of punts in this game, something that Navy hasn't been accustomed to doing in recent weeks. Navy is 26-10 UNDER in its last 36 vs. teams who possess the ball for 32 or more minutes per game. The UNDER is 4-0 in Owls last 4 games overall. The UNDER is 7-2 in Owls last 9 games vs. a team with a winning record. Each of the last 6 meetings between these teams have seen 60 or fewer combined points and an average of 53 points per game. There is clearly value with the UNDER in this contest. Take the UNDER.v
12-02-16	Ohio v. Western Michigan UNDER 59		23-29	Win	100	7 h 26 m	Show
6* Ohio/WMU MAC Championship CA$H COW on UNDER 59 The Key: These are two of the best defensive teams in the MAC, which is a big reason why both are in the MAC Championship Game tonight. Western Michigan only allows 19.2 points per game this season while Ohio gives up just 21.7 points per game. The Broncos are allowing only 18.4 points per game in MAC play, while the Bobcats are yielding only 16.7 points per game in conference action. Ohio also features a below-average offense that puts up 21.9 points per game in MAC play. All of these numbers really show that the books have set this 59-point total too high. The UNDER is 10-1-1 in all Ohio games this season, including 7-0-1 in all Oho conference games. Take the UNDER.
11-26-16	Utah v. Colorado -9		22-27	Loss	-109	22 h 32 m	Show
6* Utah/Colorado Pac-12 CA$H COW on Colorado -9 The Key: Looking ahead last week this game appeared to be for all the marbles in the Pac-12 South. Colorado took care of its business with a home win over Washington State, but Utah failed to do the same. It was upset 30-28 at home by Oregon on a last-second touchdown. Talk about a deflating loss because now the Utes are eliminated from the Pac-12 race. I don't see them getting up emotionally for the Buffaloes this week after that loss to Oregon. The Buffaloes need a win and they'll be playing Washington in the Pac-12 title game. A loss would allow USC to partake. The Buffaloes have been undervalued all season as they are 10-1 ATS this year. They are 5-0 at home and winning by nearly 28 points per game. The Utes are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. The Buffaloes are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 vs. a team with a winning record. Utah is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 meetings with the Buffaloes. Take Colorado.
11-26-16	Virginia +18.5 v. Virginia Tech		10-52	Loss	-106	14 h 2 m	Show
6* NCAAF Situational SLAM DUNK on Virginia +18.5 The Key: This is a great situation to back Virginia. The Virginia Tech Hokies just took a collective sigh of relief when they saw North Carolina get upset by NC State on Friday. That's because the Hokies were gifted the ACC Coastal Division title with that upset. Now they don't have nearly as much at stake in this game, and they will most certainly be more worried about saving up for Clemson next week in the ACC Championship Game. But this game means everything to Virginia, which won't be going to a bowl game, so it will be their Super Bowl. We've seen the Cavaliers be competitive all season as they haven't lost once by more than 21 points this year. Bronco Mendenhall is getting his players to show up week in and week out. This has been a very tight series recently. The Cavaliers are 3-1 ATS in the last 4 meetings as they've all been decided by 10 points or less, and by 20 points total. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Virginia is 18-8 ATS as an underdog over the last 3 seasons. The Cavaliers are 6-2-2 ATS in their last 10 road games. The Hokies are 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Take Virginia.
11-26-16	Michigan v. Ohio State -5	Top	27-30	Loss	-106	14 h 2 m	Show
7* Michigan/Ohio State Big Ten HEAVY HITTER on Ohio State -5 The Key: This is a very cheap price for the Ohio State Buckeyes here. They have the home-field edge and a big edge at quarterback with J.T. Barrett over John O'Korn. The Buckeyes are beating teams by 42 points per game at home this season. We saw Michigan lose on the road at Iowa and struggle beating Michigan State away from home. We also saw O'Korn struggle against Indiana at home last week. Ohio State has won 11 of its last 12 meetings with Michigan and there hasn't been an upset in this series in 11 years. Urban Meyer is 8-0 ATS when favored by less than 10 points or an underdog in his last 8 games as a head coach. Take Ohio State.
11-25-16	Washington -6 v. Washington State		45-17	Win	100	12 h 44 m	Show
6* Washington/Washington State Apple Cup CA$H COW on Washington -6 The Key: The Washington Huskies are by far the superior team in this matchup. They have played the tougher conference schedule having to face USC, Utah and Stanford. Washington State has only had to play one of those three teams this season and has benefited from a watered-down conference schedule. But the Cougars took a step up in class last week and lost 24-38 at Colorado while getting outgained by 141 yards. Washington owns Washington State, going 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings. All 6 wins have come by at least a touchdown and 5 have come by double-digits. They won 45-10 as only 7.5-point home favorites last year. Their defense will be the difference in this game as it is way better than the stop unit Washington State has to offer. And the Huskies only give up 196 passing yards per game and 6.0 per attempt, so they are equipped to stop Luke Falk and the Cougar passing attack. Washington is 6-0 ATS off 2 or more consecutive ATS losses over the last 3 seasons. The Huskies are 6-0 ATS in road games vs. poor defensive teams that allow 5.9 or more yards per play. Take Washington.
11-25-16	Northern Illinois -5 v. Kent State	Top	31-21	Win	100	8 h 24 m	Show
7* NCAAF Friday HEAVY HITTER on Northern Illinois -5 The Key: The Northern Illinois Huskies are playing very well here down the stretch at 4-3 SU & 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall. They have found their QB of the future in Daniel Santacaterina, who led them back from 21-0 down to beat Eastern Illinois last week. He rushed for 91 yards in the second half alone after taking over for their injured starting QB. Kent State is down to its 3rd-string QB now after losing 7-42 at Bowling Green last week. That was an alarming loss and it's hard to tell what kind of effort you are going to get from the Golden Flashes this week. The Huskies are 8-0 SU & 6-1-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings winning seven of those by at least 7 points. The Huskies are 8-0-1 ATS in their last 9 road games against a team with a losing home record. Take Northern Illinois.
11-24-16	LSU -6.5 v. Texas A&M		54-39	Win	100	17 h 55 m	Show
6* LSU/Texas A&M ESPN National TV Annihilator on LSU -6.5 The Key: LSU is by far the superior team in this matchup with Texas A&M. The Tigers do have 4 losses, but they came to Wisconsin, Auburn, Alabama and Florida, and they could have won every one of those games. Texas A&M is on a downward spiral while going 0-7 ATS in its last 7 games overall. The Aggies barely beat lowly UTSA 23-10 last week after falling to both Mississippi State and Ole Miss, two teams that LSU has beaten this season. The Aggies will get run over in this game defensively behind the power rushing attack of the Tigers. The Aggies have allowed 282-plus rushing yards in 3 of their last 6 contests. LSU is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in its last 5 meetings with Texas A&M. Look for that series dominance to continue as the Tigers send Ed Orgeron out a winner in the regular season finale. Take LSU.
11-22-16	Central Michigan v. Eastern Michigan +1.5	Top	21-26	Win	100	7 h 34 m	Show
7* CMU/EMU MAC HEAVY HITTER on Eastern Michigan +1.5 The Key: Eastern Michigan is looking to get to its first bowl game since 1987. The Eagles are 6-5 this season, but they may need another victory to secure their spot in the postseason. And after blowing a 21-0 lead and losing to Northern Illinois last week, they will come back very hungry on Senior Night here against Central Michigan. The Chippewas are also 6-5, but with their win over Oklahoma State earlier this season, they're probably going to a bowl either way. They had lost 3 straight before winning 27-20 over Ohio last week, but Ohio pretty much gave that game away by committing four turnovers. CMU was held to just 286 total yards in that game and outgained by 71 yards. EMU is 6-0 ATS off one or more consecutive unders this season. The Eagles are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game. The Eagles are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. Take Eastern Michigan.
11-19-16	Stanford -10.5 v. California	Top	45-31	Win	100	18 h 51 m	Show
7* Pac-12 Game of the Month on Stanford -10.5 The Key: The Stanford Cardinal have won three straight games by double-digits, including a 24-point win at Arizona and a 25-point win at Oregon. They should keep this streak going against the Cal Bears, who have lost three straight games by at least 21 points each while getting outscored by an average of 31.7 points per game. Their defense has given up 662 yards per game during this stretch. Stanford will have its way rushing the football in this game as the Golden Bears allow 283 yards per game on the ground, and frankly I don't know how they are going to ever stop Stanford from scoring. The Cardinal have owned this series with 6 straight victories over Cal and 5 of those coming by 13 points or more. The Cardinal are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 when favored by 10.5 to 21 points. Take Stanford.
11-19-16	Ohio State v. Michigan State +22		17-16	Win	100	12 h 21 m	Show
6* Ohio State/Michigan State Big Ten CA$H COW on Michigan State +22 The Key: Michigan State is coming off a 49-0 shutout win over Rutgers in its best performance of the season. This team is not just going to lay down as Mark Dantonio will have them ready. Remember, they put up 401 yards on Michigan's defense in a 9-point loss as 24.5-point dogs. In fact, Dantonio is 11-2 ATS the last 13 times he has been an underdog, and 8 of those have been outright upsets. Ohio State will be looking ahead to its huge showdown with Michigan next week. Urban Meyer is 1-5 ATS the week before playing Michigan. The Buckeyes are way overvalued right now after back-to-back 62-3 wins over Nebraska and Maryland. It's time to fade them this week in this rivalry game. Take Michigan State.
11-19-16	Oklahoma State v. TCU -5		31-6	Loss	-120	12 h 21 m	Show
6* Oklahoma State/TCU Big 12 CA$H COW on TCU -5 The Key: TCU head coach Gary Patterson is a ridiculous 14-1 ATS at home off a bye. And TCU is off a bye this week following its best performance of the season, a 62-22 road win at Baylor as 7-point underdogs. The Horned Frogs racked up 688 total yards in the win, including 431 rushing. And they held Baylor to a respectable 417 total yards. Oklahoma State is extremely fatigued right now off back-to-back barnburners in a 43-37 win at Kansas State two weeks ago, and a 45-44 home win over Texas Tech last week. The Cowboys are ripe for the picking, especially since their have their rivalry on deck against Oklahoma and could be looking ahead to that. Take TCU.
11-18-16	UNLV +28.5 v. Boise State	Top	25-42	Win	100	8 h 47 m	Show
7* UNLV/Boise NCAAF Friday Night Lights on UNLV +28.5 The Key: The UNLV Rebels just beat Wyoming in Triple Overtime last Saturday. That gives these teams a common opponent at Boise State actually lost to Wyoming 30-28. And UNLV gained 653 yards against Wyoming and outgained them by 168 yards. Boise State was actually outgained by 2 yards by Wyoming in that loss. UNLV averages 253 rushing yards per game this season and will find success on the ground against Boise State. After all, the Broncos have allowed 215 or more rushing yards in 3 straight games to Wyoming, San Jose State and Hawaii. The Broncos haven't won by more than 14 points at home this season, and they are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games at home dating back to last season. Take UNLV.
11-17-16	Louisville v. Houston +15		10-36	Win	100	8 h 2 m	Show
6* Louisville/Houston ESPN National TV Annihilator on Houston +15 The Key: The Houston Cougars have kind of just been going through the motions over the past month. Because they've had upset losses to Navy and SMU, they are clearly undervalued right now. But you can bet that Houston will get up for this game against Louisville. Let's not forget that Houston beat Oklahoma 33-23 and it is fully capable of beating Louisville when it brings its 'A' game. And this will be a hostile atmosphere at home. Louisville's 44-12 win over Wake Forest was very misleading last week. It actually trailed 12-3 midway through the 3rd quarter. The Cardinals scored 34 points in the 4th quarter of that game. I think that 'blowout' win has provided us with some line value here. Bets on home dogs of 14.5 or more points off 2 or more consecutive wins, with a winning record on the season are 38-10 ATS since 1992. The Cougars are 7-0 ATS as underdogs over the last 3 seasons. Take Houston.
11-16-16	Ball State +20.5 v. Toledo		19-37	Win	100	6 h 27 m	Show
6* Ball State/Toledo MAC CA$H COW on Ball State +20.5 The Key: The Toledo Rockets finally put an end to a 7-game losing streak to Northern Illinois with a 31-24 victory last Wednesday. Now they have an even bigger game on deck against unbeaten Western Michigan next week. That makes this a sandwich game for the Rockets, and I don't expect them to put forth the kind of effort it's going to take to beat Ball State more three or more touchdowns to cover this 20.5-point spread. Ball State is still alive for a bowl at 4-6 this season and will keep fighting until the end. Five of Ball State's six losses this season have come by 10 points or less with the only exception being Western Michigan. The Cardinals haven't lost by more than 20 points to Toledo in any of the last 11 meetings. Take Ball State.
11-15-16	Ohio v. Central Michigan	Top	20-27	Win	100	7 h 34 m	Show
7* Ohio/CMU MAC HEAVY HITTER on Central Michigan PK The Key: The Central Michigan Chippewas need a win to get bowl eligible as they sit at 5-5 on the season. They will be motivated here at home. I question the motivation of the Ohio Bobcats, who can lose tonight and still win the MAC East with a home win over Akron next week. The Bobcats have played one of the easiest schedules in the country up to this point and are extremely overrated. Central Michigan went on the road and beat Oklahoma State. Ohio is coming off 3 straight ATS covers, while CMU is coming off 3 straight ATS losses. That has put the value squarely on the home team in this contest tonight. Take Central Michigan.
11-12-16	USC v. Washington -7.5		26-13	Loss	-100	17 h 57 m	Show
6* USC/Washington FOX National TV Annihilator on Washington -7.5 The Key:* Washington is easily one of the Top 5 toughest places to play in the country. I look for the unbeaten Huskies to feed off of their home crowd and improve to 10-0 with a blowout win over USC this weekend. Everyone is making a big deal about USC winning 5 straight games coming in, but 4 of those came at home and they were mostly against soft competition. I like using common opponents to compare team. USC is 3-2 while winning by 11.8 points per game against common opponents of Washington this season. Washington is 5-0 against those 5 and winning by 28.0 points per game. There's no doubt in my mind that the Huskies are by far the superior team, and those numbers prove that. USC is 0-6 ATS as an underdog over the last 2 seasons, losing by 19.3 points per game. USC is 0-7 ATS in road games after winning 4 or 5 of its last 6 games coming in over the last 3 seasons. Take Washington.
11-12-16	Stanford -3 v. Oregon		52-27	Win	101	13 h 27 m	Show
6* Stanford/Oregon Pac-12 CA$H COW on Stanford -3 The Key: The Oregon Ducks are just 3-6 SU & 1-7-1 ATS this season, but they still continue to get too much respect from the books here as only 3-point underdogs to the Stanford Cardinal. Stanford is by far the superior team. While the slight edge on offense goes to Oregon, the massive edge on defense goes to Stanford. The Cardinal have held their last four opponents to an average of 11.2 points per game. Oregon is allowing 49.0 points and 601.5 yards per game in conference play this season. The Ducks give up 239 rushing yards per game and 5.5 per carry. Christian McCaffrey is primed for perhaps the biggest game of his career. The Cardinal have rushed for 301 yards per game in their last two contests. Stanford wants revenge from a 36-38 home loss to Oregon last season that likely cost the Cardinal a spot in the four-team playoff. They would love nothing more than to hand Oregon its 7th loss and assure that the Ducks won't be going to a bowl game. The Cardinal are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games. The Ducks are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall. Take Stanford.
11-12-16	Wyoming -7.5 v. UNLV	Top	66-69	Loss	-105	13 h 57 m	Show
7* Mountain West Game of the Year on Wyoming -7.5 The Key: Wyoming is 5-0 in conference play with a win over Boise State to boot. With wins in 2 of their final 3 games, the Cowboys will be going to the conference championship game. But they still have tough games coming up at home against San Diego State and on the road at New Mexico. They really need to win this game against UNLV if they want to reach their goals. I look for them to continue playing well against the Rebels here. UNLV has lost 3 of its last 4 with its only win coming against Hawaii, and I don't expect it to put up much of a fight here. That includes a 23-42 home loss to Colorado State, which is the same team Wyoming beat 38-17 on the road earlier this season. UNLV is a one-dimensional running team that only completes 45.2% of its passes for 163 yards per game. Wyoming has been great against the run, giving up just 139 rushing yards per game and 4.1 per carry. Bets on favorites on of 3.5 to 10 points after beating the spread by 49 or more points total in their last seven games, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team are 25-3 ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take Wyoming.
11-11-16	Boston College +20.5 v. Florida State	Top	7-45	Loss	-102	6 h 43 m	Show
7* BC/FSU NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Boston College +20.5 The Key: The Florida State Seminoles have already suffered 3 losses this season and are merely playing for bowl positioning. They're not concerned at all about this game against Boston College. They were flat last week in their 24-20 win over NC State, and I don't see them putting forth a much better effort here. Keep in mind that Boston College also beat NC State 21-14 on the road as 14-point dogs two weeks ago. Speaking of 14, the Eagles haven't lost by more than 14 points to Florida State in any of the past 3 meetings. The Eagles are 7-0 ATS in road games off an ATS loss over the last 3 seasons. After failing to cover in a blowout loss to Louisville last week, the Eagles are undervalued here. Take Boston College.
11-10-16	North Carolina -11 v. Duke		27-28	Loss	-108	8 h 0 m	Show
6* UNC/Duke ESPN National TV Annihilator on North Carolina -11 The Key: The North Carolina Tar Heels are 5-1 in conference play with their only loss coming to Virginia Tech in the slop left over by Hurricane Matthew. They have a great chance to win the Coastal for a second consecutive season. They have won their last 3 games in impressive fashion with a 7-point win at Miami, a 21-point win at Virginia, and a 28-point home win over Georgia Tech. I look for this blowout streak to continue as they put Duke away early. The Tar Heels have blown out the Blue Devils each of the last 2 seasons. They won 45-20 on the road in 2014 and 66-31 at home in 2015. Bets against home teams who have lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games against opponents who have won 3 of their last 4 games are 34-7 ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take North Carolina.
11-09-16	Bowling Green v. Akron -10.5		38-28	Loss	-105	8 h 14 m	Show
6* Bowling Green/Akron MAC CA$H COW on Akron -10.5 The Key: One thing is certain, and that is the fact that the Akron Zips will show up to play tonight. It is Senior Night for the Zips, and sitting at 5-5 on the season, they need another win to get bowl eligible. The same cannot be said for Bowling Green, which at 1-8 on the season, may not show up tonight. The Falcons lost by 14 at home to Miami Ohio and by 25 on the road to Northern Illinois in their last two games. Another double-digit blowout loss can be expected here against the Zips. Bowling Green is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games overall. The Zips are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game. Take Akron.
11-08-16	Eastern Michigan v. Ball State		48-41	Win	100	7 h 7 m	Show
6* EMU/Ball State MAC CA$H COW on Eastern Michigan PK The Key: Eastern Michigan can get bowl eligible with a win tonight over Ball State, which is huge for a program that hasn't played in the postseason since 1987. The Eagles are one of the most improved teams in the country. They easily covered against both Toledo and Western Michigan in competitive games, and playing those two teams tough is no small feat. Ball State just lost to Western Michigan 20-52 last week, while EMU only lost 31-45 on the road to WMU a couple weeks ago. EMU QB Brogan Roback has thrown 10 touchdowns and only 3 interceptions this season as the Eagles are averaging 282 passing yards per game. Ball State gives up 296 passing yards per game, so Roback should have a big day. The Eagles only give up 3.9 yards per carry, and the Cardinals rely heavily on the run as they run it 46 times per game. Eastern Michigan is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 road games, while Ball State is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 home games. Take Eastern Michigan.
11-05-16	Oregon +17 v. USC		20-45	Loss	-102	20 h 32 m	Show
6* Oregon/USC ESPN National TV Annihilator on Oregon +17 The Key: The USC Trojans have won four in a row, but now they're starting to get a little too much love from oddsmakers. It's time to sell on them and buy on the Oregon Ducks, who are just 1-6-1 ATS this season, thus they are getting to love from the betting public. But the Ducks are coming off their best performance of the season in a 54-35 win over Arizona State behind 734 yards of total offense. They have found their QB of the future in freshman Justin Herbert, who has thrown for 747 yards and 10 touchdowns against 1 interception in the last two games alone. Oregon is 8-0 ATS in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons. USC is 0-6 ATS after winning 5 or 6 of its last 7 games over the last 3 seasons. The Ducks are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 November games. The Trojans are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points. Take Oregon.
11-05-16	Florida v. Arkansas +4	Top	10-31	Win	100	16 h 3 m	Show
7* SEC Game of the Year on Arkansas +4 The Key: The Arkansas Razorbacks are fresh off their bye week. They needed it after playing the likes of Alabama, Ole Miss and Auburn in consecutive weeks. Quarterback Austin Allen is now healthy and ready to lead his troops at home against 11th-ranked Florida. The Gators may be the most overrated team in their country because their 6-1 start has come against a very easy schedule. They best team they've played is Tennessee, and they lost 38-28 on the road. They also barely beat Vanderbilt 13-6 in their other true road game. The Razorbacks are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games off a loss by 21 points or more. The Gators are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a cover against the spread. The wrong team is favored in this game. Take Arkansas.
11-05-16	Virginia v. Wake Forest -3		20-27	Win	100	16 h 32 m	Show
6* ACC Game of the Week on Wake Forest -3 The Key: The Wake Forest Demon Deacons had a chance to become bowl eligible last week. They couldn't do it as they lost to a pesky Army team. I expect them to take advantage of this opportunity this week at home against Virginia as they'll be extremely motivated to do so. And Virginia is getting way too much respect from the books for playing Louisville tough last week. That was a huge effort, but now I expect them to suffer a hangover after falling just short. They won't get up to play Wake Forest this week. The Demon Deacons are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss. The Cavaliers are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Take Wake Forest.
11-04-16	San Jose State +30 v. Boise State	Top	31-45	Win	100	9 h 28 m	Show
7* SJSU/Boise State NCAAF Friday Night Lights on San Jose State +30 The Key: The Boise State Broncos just had their dreams crushed of playing in the Cotton Bowl. They lost 28-30 at Wyoming last week as 14.5-point underdogs. I expect them to come out flat tonight against the San Jose Spartans, which is going to make it extremely difficult to cover this 30-point spread. The Broncos have been one of the worst bets in college football, yet they still keep getting a ton of respect from oddsmakers. They are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall. They only won by 1 at home over BYU, by 5 at home over Colorado State, by 11 at home over Utah State and by 3 at home over Washington State in their four home games, where they've gone 0-4 ATS. The Spartans come in with confidence after winning 2 of their last 3 games while not committing a single turnover in that stretch, which has made the biggest difference. The Broncos are 0-7 ATS vs. teams who give up 8 or more yards per pass attempt over the last 3 seasons. They are only beating these teams by 4.8 points per game. Take San Jose State.
11-03-16	Oklahoma v. Iowa State +20.5		34-24	Win	100	7 h 13 m	Show
6* Oklahoma/Iowa State ESPN National TV Annihilator on Iowa State +20.5 The Key: The Iowa State Cyclones have had some weekday magic over the years. They beat previously unbeaten and national title contender Oklahoma State as 27-point underdogs in 2011. They only lost to Texas 30-31 in 2013 and should have won that game as the refs blew a fumble call in the final minutes. Now they take on Oklahoma and should give the Sooners are run for their money. The Sooners are down to one scholarship running back, and he's a freshman. That's because Samaje Perine is hurt, and Joe Mixon is suspended. The Cyclones are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall. They only lost to Baylor by 3 at home and to Kansas State by 5 at home. Iowa State is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 home games overall, while Oklahoma is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 games following an ATS win. Take Iowa State.
11-02-16	Toledo -10 v. Akron		48-17	Win	100	7 h 43 m	Show
6* Toledo/Akron MAC CA$H COW on Toledo -10 The Key: The Toledo Rockets have been very impressive this season. They are 6-2 on the season with their two losses coming by a combined 7 points. Off their first conference loss, I look for them to come out hungry tonight against Akron, which just lost by 21 to lowly Buffalo last week. The Rockets have outgained all 8 foes this season and by an average of 167 yards per game. Akron has been outgained in 6 of 9 games this season and by an average of 82 yards per game. This looks like an obvious mismatch on paper and should be on the scoreboard as well. The Rockets are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 road games. Take Toledo.
11-01-16	Western Michigan v. Ball State +17.5		52-20	Loss	-105	9 h 44 m	Show
6* Western Michigan/Ball State MAC CA$H COW on Ball State +17.5 The Key: The Ball State Cardinals are one of the most improved teams in the MAC this season. They have gone 4-4 this season and what impresses me most is that they have been in every game they have played. All four of their losses have come by 10 points or less. That includes a 3-point loss at Central Michigan and a 10-point loss at Indiana in their two toughest games this season. They are capable of keeping up with Western Michigan. The Broncos are clearly overvalued right now due to their 8-0 SU & 6-2 ATS start this season. They haven't covered in 2 of their last 3 games as their lines have simply been too big, similar to this one tonight. I'll take all the points I can get with the Cardinals here. Take Ball State.
10-29-16	Northwestern +27.5 v. Ohio State		20-24	Win	100	23 h 37 m	Show
6* Northwestern/Ohio State Big Ten CA$H COW on Northwestern +27.5 The Key: The Northwestern Wildcats are playing their best football of the season right now and are clearly capable of giving Ohio State a run for its money. The Wildcats are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last 3 games overall. They won 38-31 at Iowa as 11-point dogs, 54-40 at Michigan State as 6-point dogs, and 24-14 at home against Indiana as 3-point favorites. Their offense is hitting on all cylinders. Clayton Thorson is the third-leading passer in the Big Ten at 240.9 yards per game and 14 touchdowns. Justin Jackson is the conference's leading rusher with 792 yards, and Austin Carr is the conference's leading receiver with 50 catches for 720 yards and nine scores. Ohio State's offense just hasn't been the same of late, They only managed 383 yards against Indiana, scored 23 points in regulation against Wisconsin, and were held to 21 points against Penn State. They're going to need to score close to 50 to cover this 27-point spread, but I don't think they're capable of it against this Northwestern defense, which gives up 21.9 points per game. Ohio State is 0-6 ATS in home games off one or more straight unders over the last 2 seasons. Take Northwestern.
10-29-16	Miami (Fla) v. Notre Dame +1.5	Top	27-30	Win	100	23 h 32 m	Show
7* Miami/ND Non-Conference Game of the Month on Notre Dame +1.5 The Key: This is the start of a new season for the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. They have started 2-5 this year and will have to get four wins in their last five games to make a bowl. There's no question this team is shooting for that target, and the next four games are all winnable against Miami, Navy, Army and Virginia Tech. Now they've had a bye week to catch their breath and should play one of their best games of the season this week. It's worth noting that all five of Notre Dame's losses have come by 8 points or less, so they are better than their record. Maimi has been overmatched in three straight losses to FSU, UNC and VA Tech. They have been outgained in 4 straight games, while Notre Dame has actually outgained 4 of 7 opponents this season. The Hurricanes are 0-6 ATS vs. teams who pass for 250 or more yards per game over the last 2 seasons. They are losing by 17.2 points per game on average. Take Notre Dame.
10-29-16	Michigan v. Michigan State +24.5		32-23	Win	100	19 h 2 m	Show
6* NCAAF Rivalry Game of the Week on Michigan State +24.5 The Key: The Michigan State Spartans haven't been this big of home underdogs since 1991. And this is a rivalry game, so I don't believe the Spartans should be catching this many points. I understand that Michigan wants revenge considering the Spartans are 7-1 SU & 8-0 ATS in the last 8 meetings in this series. But they will gladly take a win, even if its by 24 points or fewer, which is likely going to be the case in this game. This will only be Michigan's second road game of the season with the first coming at lowly Rutgers. The schedule has been rather soft for the Wolverines to say the least, and I believe them to be overvalued because of it. Take Michigan State.
10-28-16	San Diego State -5 v. Utah State		40-13	Win	100	7 h 4 m	Show
6* NCAAF Friday Night Lights on San Diego State -5 The Key: The San Diego State Aztecs are one of the best non-power 5 teams in the country. They are 6-1 this season and coming off a 42-3 win over San Jose State. They went undefeated in conference play last year, and they're 3-0 in conference play this year, winning by 24.0 points per game on average. Utah State is just 1-3 in conference play this season with its only win coming at home over Fresno State, which is probably the worst team in the Mountain West. All three of Utah State's conference losses have come by 7 points or more. SDSU beat Utah State 48-14 last year and outgained them by 190 yards thanks to 336 rushing yards. The Aztecs are 24-9-2 ATS in their last 35 conference games and 9-1 ATS int heir last 10 vs. a team with a losing record. The Aztecs are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs. a team with a winning record and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a win. Take San Diego State.
10-27-16	California v. USC -16		24-45	Win	100	11 h 26 m	Show
6* Cal/USC ESPN BAILOUT on USC -16 The Key: The USC Trojans come into this game fresh and ready to go. They haven't played in almost two weeks. They are 3-0 in their last 3 games overall, winning by an average of 19.7 points per game and outgaining foes by 206 yards per game. Cal doesn't have the same luxury. It played a double-OT game last Friday against Oregon and will not be fresh at all for this contest. The Cal defense, which gives up 41.3 points per game this season, might give up 60 to the Trojans in this one. I look for USC to score at will and to get enough stops to easily cover this 16-point spread given the situation. After all, the Trojans have won 12 straight meetings in this series, and they're 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Take USC.
10-22-16	Washington State -7.5 v. Arizona State		37-32	Loss	-110	33 h 16 m	Show
6* Washington State/ASU Pac-12 BAILOUT on Washington State -7.5 The Key: After losing to Eastern Washington and Boise State by a combined 6 points to open the season, the Washington State Cougars have gone 4-0 since with four straight dominant victories against some really good competition. They beat Idaho 56-6, Oregon 51-33 and Stanford 42-16 on the road. They 'only' beat UCLA 27-21 at home last week, but that game was played in a downpour, and it was a bigger blowout than the final score as the Cougars led 24-7 in the second half. Arizona State is clearly one of the worst teams in the Pac-12. The Sun Devils have been outgained badly in four straight games. They were outgained by 183 yards by Cal, by 220 yards by USC, by 168 yards by UCLA, and by 381 yards in a 16-40 loss to Colorado last week. The Cougars are legitimate contenders to win the Pac-12 and will continue their mission this week with a dominant victory against the overmatched Sun Devils. The Cougars are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 conference games and 9-0 ATS in their last 9 vs. a team with a winning record. Take Washington State.
10-22-16	TCU +6.5 v. West Virginia	Top	10-34	Loss	-109	27 h 46 m	Show
7* Big 12 Game of the Year on TCU +6.5 The Key: The TCU Horned Frogs are fresh off their bye after an uninspiring 24-23 win at Kansas two weeks ago. Gary Patterson has gotten the attention of his players, and I look for the Horned Frogs to put forth their best effort of the season Saturday. Patterson is the king of using the bye week to his advantage. His teams are 12-1 SU & 13-0 ATS in their last 13 off regular season bye weeks. It's time to sell high on the West Virginia Mountaineers, who are 5-0 but struggled to put away both BYU and Kansas State, beating those two teams by a combined 4 points. TCU will be the best opponent that WVU has faced this season. The Mountaineers are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 vs. a team with a winning record. Take TCU.
10-22-16	Indiana v. Northwestern -2.5		14-24	Win	100	23 h 11 m	Show
6* Indiana/Northwestern Big Ten CA$H COW on Northwestern -2.5 The Key: The Northwestern Wildcats are 3-3 on the season and desperately need this win if they want to get to a bowl game. That's because they have games against Ohio State and Wisconsin on deck, so if they lose this game, they would have to go 3-0 in their final three games to make a bowl. The Wildcats are getting no respect despite back-to-back road wins over Iowa and Michigan State in which they scored 38 and 54 points, respectively. Indiana is in a tough scheduling spot here after three straight games against Michigan State, Ohio State and Nebraska in which they went 1-2. Northwestern has won the last four meetings, including the last two years where the Wildcats scored 44 and 59 points. Their offense should continue to play at a high level here, and the Wildcats should be much bigger home favorites in this one. The Wildcats are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. Take Northwestern.
10-21-16	San Jose State +23 v. San Diego State	Top	3-42	Loss	-110	12 h 57 m	Show
7* NCAAF Friday Night Lights on San Jose State +23 The Key: The San Jose State Spartans have played much better in Mountain West play. They lost by a touchdown to New Mexico, beat Nevada and lost to Hawaii as a favorite. San Diego State lost at South Alabama by 18 a few weeks ago, ruining their perfect season. They came back with flat efforts in a 26-7 win over UNLV and a 17-3 win over Fresno State the past two weeks. The Aztecs have an elite defense, but their offense simply isn't good enough to lay big numbers like this 23-point spread. They have no passing game, and Donnel Pumphrey may be wearing down. He has 167 carries already, including 69 in the past two games. San Diego State is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 home games after gaining 275 or more rushing yards in its previous game. Take San Jose State.
10-20-16	BYU v. Boise State -6.5		27-28	Loss	-106	11 h 36 m	Show
6* BYU/Boise State ESPN BAILOUT on Boise State -6.5 The Key: BYU couldn't have played a tougher schedule to this point and it has yet to have a bye week. It is coming off a double-overtime win against Mississippi State last week. I can't help but think the Cougars are going to be fatigued heading into this showdown with 6-0 Boise State. The home team has won 5 straight meetings in this series, including a 25-point win by the Broncos over the Cougars in 2016. The Broncos are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning record. Take Boise State.
10-15-16	New Mexico +14 v. Air Force		45-40	Win	100	8 h 4 m	Show
6* Mountain West CA$H COW on New Mexico +14 The Key: A lot of folks are mistaking this as a home game for Air Force, but that's not the case as it will be played in the Cotton Bowl in Dallas, TX. Both New Mexico and Air Force play similar styles as they are primarily running teams. And the Lobos get a nice boost this week with the return of top RB Teriyon Gipson. Since these teams play similar styles, they know each other well, and the results in recent meetings have been nail-biters. In fact, each of the last 4 meetings have been decided by 12 points or fewer with margins of 12, 4, 8 and 5 points. New Mexico beat Air Force 47-35 last year and outgained them 512 to 389 for the game. The Falcons are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games following a straight up loss. The Lobos are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Take New Mexico.
10-15-16	Western Kentucky v. Middle Tennessee State -2		44-43	Loss	-107	7 h 4 m	Show
6* Conference USA CA$H COW on Middle Tennessee -2 The Key: Middle Tennessee is in a great spot here. It is coming off a bye week, so it has had two full weeks to prepare for Western Kentucky. This is the biggest game of the season for the Blue Raiders as they feel they are the best team in Conference USA and want to prove it against the defending conference champs. Middle Tennessee beat LA Tech 38-34 at home three weeks ago. That's the same LA Tech team that WKU lost to 52-55 on the road last week in a game that was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate. WKU trailed 52-31 in the 4th quarter before making a big comeback and was still outgained by 134 yards. The Hilltoppers continue to be overvalued as they are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Take Middle Tennessee.
10-15-16	Pittsburgh v. Virginia +4	Top	45-31	Loss	-104	5 h 4 m	Show
7* NCAAF Situational Game of the Year on Virginia +4 The Key: The Virginia Cavaliers have gone 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall. Yet, they still get no love from oddsmakers here. They are coming off their two best games of the season with a 49-35 home win over Central Michigan as 5-point dogs and a 34-20 road win at Duke as 3-point dogs. They had a bye last week, so they'll be fresh and ready to go at home against Pitt this week. Pitt is dead tired right now after playing 6 straight weeks to open the season, and 4 of its last 5 games were decided by 7 points or less. I believe the Panthers will run out of gas this week, especially after having to face Georgia Tech's triple-option last week. The home team is 5-0 SU & 4-0-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. The Cavaliers are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 conference games and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a bye week. Take Virginia.
10-14-16	Mississippi State v. BYU UNDER 56.5	Top	21-28	Win	100	12 h 44 m	Show
7* Miss State/BYU ESPN Friday Night Lights on UNDER 56.5 The Key: Mississippi State is 54-36 UNDER in all games with Dan Mullen as head coach. The Bulldogs are 4-1 UNDER in their 5 games this season as well. Four of those five finished with 52 or less points. BYU is 4-2 UNDER in its 6 games this season. Four of those finished with 45 or fewer combined points. Given that evidence, it appears the oddsmakers have inflated this total. Both teams are run-first offenses, and both defenses are excellent at stopping the run, so the matchup favors the UNDER as well. The UNDER is 30-8 in BYU's last 38 games vs. a team that averages 4.75 or more yards per carry. Take the UNDER.
10-12-16	Appalachian State v. UL-Lafayette UNDER 48.5	Top	24-0	Win	100	8 h 21 m	Show
7* Appalachian State/LA-Lafayette ESPN 2 TOTAL Annihilator on UNDER 48.5 The Key: Lafayette is coming off back-to-back overtime games that have inflated this total. They were tied with Tulane 16-16 at the end of regulation two weeks ago for 32 combined points, then proceeded to score 48 points in OT. They were tied with New Mexico State 24-24 at the end of regulation last week for 48 combined points, but added 20 more points in OT. Last year, Appalachian State beat LA Lafayette 28-7 for 35 combined points, and I expect to see a similar result here. Three of Appalachian State's five games this season finished with 38 or fewer combined points, including last week's 17-3 win over Georgia State. Both offenses are subpar, and both defenses are better than average, especially Appalachian State. Both teams also prefer to keep the ball on the ground as the Mountaineers rush 47 times per game while the Rajin' Cajuns rush 46 times per game. That will keep the clock moving. Both defenses are good against the run as App State allows 134 yards per game while Lafayette gives up only 116 yards per game. The UNDER is 4-0 in Mountaineers last 4 games following a bye week. Both teams have had extra time to prepare, which also favors the UNDER. Take the UNDER.
10-08-16	UCLA v. Arizona State +10		20-23	Win	100	31 h 20 m	Show
6* UCLA/Arizona State Pac-12 BAILOUT on Arizona State +10 The Key: Arizona State comes in way undervalued as a 10-point home underdog to UCLA this week. The Sun Devils were blown out by USC on the road last week while UCLA blew out an injury-ravaged Arizona team at home. Those two results have created some artificial line inflation this week that we're going to take advantage of. Another reason the public is all over UCLA is because ASU will be starting freshman QB Brady White. But White was the top-rated QB recruit in the history of ASU coming out of high school. He actually led Arizona State on two scoring drives in the fourth quarter against USC last week to get his feet wet. I think he'll be just fine here, especially in front of his home fans. Last year, ASU beat UCLA 38-23 on the road and outgained the Bruins by 123 yards. Josh Rosen only completed 22 of 40 passes in the loss for UCLA and figures to struggle again here. The Sun Devils are 22-8 ATS in their last 30 home games after failing to cover the spread in 2 of their last 3 games coming in. The Bruins are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 following an ATS win, 0-6 ATS in their last 6 following a win of more than 20 points, and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games. The Sun Devils are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games, and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. These 5 trends off a 27-0 angle backing the Sun Devils. Take Arizona State.

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