Sports Picks & Predictions

6* Saturday NCAAF *Upset Special* on Central Michigan +3 

The Key: Wrong team favored here.  Jim McElwain was one of the best hires of the offseason and he has quickly turned the Central Michigan Chippewas into MAC title contenders in his first season.  The Chippewas are 5-3 this year with their only losses coming to Wisconsin, Miami and Western Michigan all on the road.  They only lost 12-17 at Miami as 30.5-point dogs.  And they lost 15-31 at Western Michigan, but that game was closer than the final score as the Chippewas actually outgained the Broncos.  They have outgained 6 of their 8 opponents this year and were only outgained by 55 yards by Miami.  In the 6 games they won the yardage battle, they won 5 of them by 102 yards or more.  Buffalo is 3-4 with two of its wins coming against Robert Morris and Akron.  It’s a rebuilding year for the Bulls, who are one of the least experienced teams in the nation with just 8 returning starters.  Bets on road teams that average 5.6 to 6.2 YPPG against a team that gives up 4.8 YPP to 5.6 YPPG after gaining 525 or more yards in their last game are 24-4 ATS over the last 10 years.  Take Central Michigan. 

7* Pac-12 Game of the Year on Stanford PK 

The Key: Stanford is too prideful to pack it in.  The Cardinal are 3-4 this season but they’ve played the 3rd-ranked schedule in the country.  They are coming off a bad loss to UCLA, but that was with their 3rd-string QB, which is one of the worst QB’s I’ve ever seen.  Now the Cardinal should get back either starter KJ Costello or 2nd-stringer Davis Mills this week from injury.  Both have been effective, so as long as one of them starts as I’m expecting, we’ll be good to go.  Arizona lost 27-51 at home to Washington and 14-41 at USC in its last two games.  The Wildcats are getting too much respect from oddsmakers this week.  The Wildcats are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 road games.  The Cardinal are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings winning 4 of those games by 24 points or more.  The Wildcats are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 road games off 2 straight conference games.  Take Stanford. 

6* SMU/Houston AAC *CA$H COW* on SMU -13 

The Key: The SMU Mustangs are 7-0 and boast one of the best offenses in the country.  They have scored 41 or more points in 6 straight games and are averaging 44.3 PPG this season.  They will score 40-plus in this one against a soft Houston defense.  And they will cover this spread because of it.  The Cougars were outgained by 152 yards by UConn last week, which is all you need to know about how poor of a team this Houston squad is right now.  Sonny Dykes is 10-1 ATS in road games off 3 or more consecutive wins as a head coach.  Take SMU. 

6* Tennessee/Alabama SEC *CA$H COW* on Tennessee +35 

The Key: The Alabama Crimson Tide are coming off a huge 47-28 road win at Texas A&M.  It was closer than the final score showed as Alabama’s defense was once again porous.  Teams can score on this Alabama defense as South Carolina scored 23, Ole Miss scored 31 and Texas A&M scored 28.  The Vols will never be close to not covering in this game as massive 35-point dogs.  They were only down 15 to Georgia late in the fourth quarter two weeks ago, and last week they upset Mississippi State 20-10 as 5-point home dogs in a dominant effort that was no fluke.  The Crimson Tide are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 against a team with a losing record.  Alabama is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 games following an ATS win.  The road team is 17-6-1 ATS in the last 24 meetings.  Take Tennessee. 

7* SEC Game of the Year on Georgia -24.5 

The Key: Poor Kentucky.  The Wildcats get to be the punching bag that Georgia takes out its frustration on after getting upset by South Carolina last week.  The Bulldogs gave away that game by committing 4 turnovers in what was a very fluky loss.  Now they take on a Kentucky team that has lost both of its road games in blowout fashion 13-28 at Mississippi State and 7-24 at South Carolina.  If they couldn’t hang with those 2 teams on the road, they have no chance of hanging with Georgia.  Kentucky is down to a 3rd-string QB who was a former receiver.  They can only run the football, making them one-dimensional.  That will be easy for Georgia to stop.  Georgia only allows 73 RYPG and 2.7 YPC this year.  Once Georgia gets up 28-plus, there will be no back door coming because Kentucky doesn’t have a passing game.  The Bulldogs are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS loss.  The Bulldogs are 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings.  Take Georgia. 

6* Oregon/Washington Pac-12 *CA$H COW* on Washington +3 

The Key: The Washington Huskies have one of the biggest home-field advantages in the country.  I like the price we are getting on the Huskies as home dogs to Oregon Saturday.  The Huskies are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS at home this year and winning by 19.5 PPG.  They are coming off their best performance of the season in a 51-27 road win at Arizona last week.  And now they are back home here to take down rival Oregon.  The Ducks are 0-6 ATS in road games against good offensive teams that score 31 or more points per game over the last 3 years.  They are losing by 20.0 PPG in this situation.  Oregon is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 road games.  The Ducks are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games off an ATS win.  The Huskies are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 against a team with a winning record.  Take Washington. 

7* Marshall/FAU NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Florida Atlantic -4.5 

The Key: Many bettors forgot about Florida Atlantic after they were blown out by 2 of the best teams in the country in Ohio State and UCF to open the season.  But they’ve gone 4-0 since with 4 double-digit victories.  I look for them to win this game by a touchdown or more at home against a Marshall team that has been very disappointing.  The Thundering Herd are 3-3 SU & 1-5 ATS this year.  Their 3 wins have come over VMI, Old Dominion and Ohio (by 2) all at home.  They lost to a bad Middle Tennessee team 13-24 on the road, were blown out at home by Cincinnati 14-52, and lost 7-14 at Boise State in a game that was a bigger blowout than the final score showed.  Marshall only had 172 total yards against Boise State and gave up 437 yards.  The Owls are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing 125 or fewer rushing yards in 2 straight games.  Take Florida Atlantic. 

7* South Alabama/Troy Sun Belt *HEAVY HITTER* on South Alabama +17 

The Key: This game just means a lot more to South Alabama than Troy.  The Jaguars are looked at the little brother in this rivalry of Alabama schools.  But they’ve gone 3-3 SU & 4-2 ATS in the last 6 meetings with only one loss by more than 7 points.  They pulled two outright upsets 19-8 and 24-18 at Troy as 18 and 6-point dogs in their last two road trips in this series.  And their three losses came by 1, 7 and 21 points.  This is one of the worst Troy teams we’ve seen in years largely due to head coach Neal Brown leaving the program.  They are 2-3 with their only wins coming against Akron and Campbell.  South Alabama has kept some games close this season against some good teams, losing by 14 at Nebraska as 35-point dogs, by 13 at Louisiana-Monroe as 13-point dogs and by 3 to Georgia Southern as 10-point dogs.  They are hungry for their first win against an FBS opponent, and they would love nothing more than for it to come against Troy.  The Jaguars are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 against a team with a losing record.  The Jaguars are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 conference games.  The Trojans are 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 home games against a team with a losing record.  The Trojans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.  Take South Alabama. 

6* Hawaii/Boise State MWC *BAILOUT* on Hawaii +13 

The Key: Hawaii is 4-1 this season with its only loss coming on the road to Washington.  The Warriors also have wins over Arizona, Oregon State and Nevada.  How good does that win over Arizona look now?  They won that game despite committing 6 turnovers, and Arizona has gone on to win each of its next 4 games since.  Now Hawaii is rested off a bye week following its dominant 54-3 ‘upset’ win at Nevada 2 weeks ago.  Boise State scored a late touchdown to cover against UNLV last week after returning an onside kick inside UNLV’s 10-yard line.  It was a misleading 38-13 final score.  I think Boise State is vulnerable, and that showed in 2 home wins over Marshall 14-7 and Air Force 30-19.  Both those games went down to the wire, and Hawaii is better than both of those teams.  Brian Harsin is 0-8 ATS as a home favorite of 10.5 to 14 points as the coach of Boise State.  Take Hawaii. 

6* Florida/LSU SEC *CA$H COW* on LSU -13 

The Key: The transformation of this LSU offense can almost exclusively be attributed to getting the passing game coordinator from the New Orleans Saints in the offseason.  LSU is scoring 54.6 PPG and putting up 571 YPG on offense.  We’ve never seen an LSU offense this potent, and neither has Florida.  That’s why I’m willing to lay the big number with the Tigers, especially since this will be one of the best atmospheres in all of college football down in Baton Rouge Saturday night.  Florida has a good defense, but hasn’t seen an offense nearly this explosive.  The Gators are also 5-0, but they have played Miami, Tennessee-Martin, Kentucky, Tennessee and Auburn.  That’s an awful slate of opposing offenses.  This is a bad spot for the Gators after their big home win against the frauds of Auburn last week.  LSU made easy work of Utah State last week 42-6 and will be rested and ready to go.  Florida QB Kyle Trask suffered a knee injury, and now the freshman is banged up and won’t be ready for the atmosphere he’s about to encounter Saturday night.  The Tigers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.  The Tigers are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 conference games.  The home team is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings.  Take LSU. 

6* Nebraska/Minnesota Big Ten *CA$H COW* on Nebraska +7.5 

The Key: The Minnesota Golden Gophers are 5-0 this year, but it has come against one of the softest schedules in the country.  And it’s worth noting that 4 of Minnesota’s 5 wins have come by 7 points or less.  So now the Golden Gophers will be playing the best team they have faced all season in Nebraska, and I think the price is right to pull the trigger on the Huskers +7.5.  If they want to win the Big Ten West like they were favored to do prior to the season, this is a must-win game for them.  I think we get the best effort we’ve seen yet from the Huskers this week as a result.  The Huskers are 21-10-1 ATS in their last 32 road games.  Take Nebraska. 

6* North Texas/Southern Miss C-USA *CA$H COW* on Southern Miss -3 

The Key: I don’t agree with this line move of Southern Miss from -6 down to -3 this week.  The price is right to now pull the trigger on the Golden Eagles.  They are a loaded team with 16 returning starters and among my favorites to win Conference USA this year.  They are 3-2 with their only losses coming on the road to Mississippi State and Alabama.  They also upset Troy on the road.  They have played a much more difficult schedule than North Texas, which is 2-3 this season with its only wins over Abilene Christian and UTSA.  The 25-46 home loss to Houston last week as 7.5-point favorites was terrible for North Texas.  The Mean Green were up against a Houston team that had just decided to redshirt their QB and top WR the previous week.  They laid a complete egg and aren’t very good.  The Golden Eagles get back their best defensive player from injury at linebacker this week, and he is their leader and quarterback of the defense.  North Texas is 1-9 ATS after the first month of the season over the last 2 years.  The Mean Green are 3-16 ATS in their last 19 road games against good offensive teams that average 5.9 YPP or more.  The Mean Green are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  Take Southern Miss. 

7* Conference USA Game of the Year on Florida Atlantic -10.5 

The Key: The FAU Owls were quickly forgotten about after opening 0-2 with losses to Ohio State and UCF.  But those are 2 of the best teams in the country, and they actually played Ohio State as tough as anyone has in a 21-45 road loss.  They’ve since gone 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS with blowout wins at Ball State 41-31, at home over Wagner 42-7 and at Charlotte 45-27.  Now they will beat a bad Middle Tennessee team by double-digits tonight.  All three of MTSU’s losses have come by 19 points or more.  Their only wins were at home against Tennessee State and Marshall.  They only outgained Tennessee State by 138 yards as 26-point favorites and were outgained by 177 yards by Marshall in a misleading final.  FAU is refreshed and refocused as it will be returning from its bye week and ready to go this week.  The Owls want to avenge a 24-25 road loss at MTSU last year.  MTSU is 1-14 ATS in its last 15 against teams with a turnover margin of +1 per game or better.  The Blue Raiders are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 against a team with a winning record.  Take Florida Atlantic. 

7* Colorado/Oregon NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Colorado +21.5 

The Key: The Oregon Ducks are laying too many points tonight.  They haven’t been able to put teams away by big margins.  They only beat Montana by 35 as 39.5-point favorites, Stanford by 15 and Cal by 10 in their last 3 games coming in.  Colorado is good enough to stay within 3 touchdowns of Oregon.  The Buffaloes are 3-2 this season with their 2 losses coming by 7 and 5 points.  They beat Nebraska and Arizona State, so they have played a pretty tough schedule thus far.  The Buffaloes have the offense to keep up with the Ducks.  They are scoring 34.6 PPG overall and 43.0 PPG on the road.  They have a veteran QB in Steven Montez who won’t be fazed by playing in Eugene.  Montez is completing 67% of his passes for 1,463 yards with 10 touchdowns and only 2 interceptions while averaging 8.3 YPA.  Oregon is 0-6 ATS against teams that commit one or fewer turnovers per game over the last 3 years.  Take Colorado. 

7* App State/Lafayette Sun Belt *HEAVY HITTER* on Louisiana-Lafayette -1 

The Key: This is a rematch from the Sun Belt title game last year.  Lafayette lost by 10 at Appalachian State in the regular season and by 11 in the championship game, which was also at App State.  Now the Rajin’ Cajuns are playing with double revenge and finally get the Mountaineers at home this year.  That will make all the difference.  We are going to get a big effort from the Rajin’ Cajuns, who are clearly the better team this year.  They are 4-1 with their only loss coming on the road at Mississippi State by 10.  The Rajin’ Cajuns are outgaining teams by 195 YPG on the season.  Appalachian State is 4-0, but they are only outgaining teams by 9 YPG on the year.  And this despite playing the 143rd-ranked schedule in the nation.  This will easily be the Mountaineers’ toughest test yet.  Lafayette is 5-0 ATS in all games this year and will improve to 6-0 with a win and cover Wednesday.  Take LA-Lafayette. 

6* Tulsa/SMU *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 64.5 

The Key: Both Tulsa and SMU have good defenses this season, and it’s going to be hard to envision them combining to score 65 points or more to beat us with this UNDER Saturday.  Tulsa is giving up 26.2 PPG against a gauntlet of a schedule that has featured Michigan State and Oklahoma State.  SMU is allowing 26.6 PPG against an also tough schedule that has featured some good offenses in Arkansas State, North Texas and TCU.  SMU has 25 sacks this season, and Tulsa gets sacked 4 times per game.  Tulsa’s offense is mustering up only 21.5 PPG this year.  SMU will be able to stop them, and I think Tulsa will hold SMU to its lowest point total yet this season.  This was a 27-24 game for 51 combined points when these teams met last year.  Tulsa is 9-0 UNDER in the first half o the season over the last 2 years.  SMU is 6-0 UNDER in October games over the last 3 years.  Tulsa is 7-0 UNDER when up against a team that wins more than 75% of their games over the last 3 years.  Tulsa is 9-1 UNDER against good offensive teams that average 5.9 or more YPP over the last 3 years.  Take the UNDER. 

6* Michigan State/Ohio State Big Ten *CA$H COW* on Michigan State +21 

The Key: The Michigan State Spartans just have a way of playing to their competition.  That’s why you should almost never lay big points with them, but you should certainly look to back them in the underdog role.  This is a classic Mark Dantonio game where the Spartans will come close to beating Ohio State, if not pull off the upset.  The Buckeyes are coming off a huge win at Nebraska with ESPN’s College Gameday on site.  This is definitely a letdown spot for them now.  And the Buckeyes are 5-0 and have covered 4 straight coming in, so the price is getting too steep to back them now.  Ohio State is 0-6 ATS off 5 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 years.  They are actually losing in this spot outright by 2.5 PPG.  The road team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  The underdog is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings.  Take Michigan State. 

6* Conference USA *Total* Annihilator on Rice/UAB UNDER 44.5 

The Key: It’s hard to see where the points are going to come from in this matchup between two very bad offensive teams in Rice and UAB.  Rice is scoring just 14.8 PPG and averaging 282 YPG.  UAB is scoring 25.7 PPG and averaging 376 YPG.  UAB has another great defense this year as they are giving up just 15.5 PPG.  Rice’s defense is improved with 29.4 PPG allowed against a tough schedule of Army, Wake Forest, Texas, Baylor and LA Tech.  Both teams prefer to run the ball as UAB averages 41 rushing attempts per game and only 26 pass attempts.  Rice also prefers to run the ball with 36 rushing attempts per game and only 26 passing attempts, which speaks volumes about their offensive strategy considering they have been trailing all season.  That will keep the clock moving.  UAB is 8-0 UNDER in October games over the last 3 years.  UAB is 6-0 UNDER in home games in the first half of the season over the last 3 years.  The UNDER is 6-1-1 in Owls last 8 conference games.  The UNDER is 13-4 in Blazers last 17 conference games.  The UNDER is 7-2 in Blazers last 9 home games.  Take the UNDER. 

7* ACC Game of the Year on Georgia Tech +11 

The Key: This is the ultimate flat spot for the UNC Tar Heels.  They came up just a 2-point conversion short of upsetting Clemson last week.  Now they have to try and get back up off the mat and face a Georgia Tech team that is 1-3 on the season.  They won’t be interested at all in this game.  The Tar Heels are extra defeated right now after losing 3 straight games by 6 points or less after winning their first 2 games by 4 points or fewer.  So all 5 of their games have been decided by 6 points or less, and this one will go down to the wire as well.  Georgia Tech now had 4 games under its belt in the new schemes under Geoff Collins, who arrived from Temple.  And that loss to Temple last week was far from the 24-2 blowout it appeared.  The Yellow Jackets were only outgained by 18 yards by the Owls on the road but committed 3 costly turnovers.  Georgia Tech is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings, and 4-1 ATS in the last 5 home meetings.  Take Georgia Tech. 

6* Saturday AAC *CA$H COW* on Connecticut +11.5 

The Key: The South Florida Bulls have to be close to firing head coach Charlie Strong.  A loss to UConn on the road Saturday would do the trick.  The Bulls are 1-3 this season with a 49-0 blowout home loss to Wisconsin and a 21-48 blowout home loss to SMU.  They trailed SMU 41-0 last week before scoring 3 late touchdowns.  They also lost to Georgia Tech on the road, and their only win came against South Carolina State at home.  They only outgained South Carolina State by 83 yards in that game but benefitted from forcing 8 turnovers, which resulted in a misleading final.  I don’t think they’re that much better than UConn.  The Huskies were blown out not he road by Indiana and UCF, but that’s to be expected.  They beat Wagner at home and only lost to Illinois by 8 as 21-point dogs in their 2 home games this year.  Randy Edsall has this team fighting and their are definitely improved over last year, when they only lost 30-38 at South Florida as 33.5-point dogs.  The Huskies are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games off 2 consecutive road losses.  Take Connecticut. 

7* UCF/Cincinnati ESPN Friday Night Lights on Cincinnati +4.5 

The Key: Cincinnati has played a schedule that is almost two times as hard as that of UCF to this point.  I like that they’ve been tested early and are 3-1 with their only loss coming on the road to powerhouse Ohio State.  UCF is 4-1, but they lost on the road to Pittsburgh, a team that lost badly to Virginia and barely beat FCS Delaware by a field goal last week.  If Pittsburgh can knock them off, there’s no question Cincinnati can.  I love home underdogs in weeknight games because the atmosphere is electric, and it will be a Nippert Stadium in Cincinnati Friday night as well.  This Bearcats defense will be the best stop unit that UCF has seen yet this season.  They are giving up just 20.7 PPG and 297 YPG this year.  Take Cincinnati. 

7* Mountain West Game of the Year on Nevada -2 

The Key: Nevada is for sure one of my favorite plays of the entire 2019 season.  They host Hawaii Saturday night in Reno.  Game-time temps are expected to be in the 40’s as there’s a cold front moving through Nevada.  Hawaii has had upper 80’s temps all week, so they will be a little shell shocked for these 40-degree temps.  And this game will be played in altitude.  Nevada is 5-0 in their last 5 home meetings with Hawaii, and 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings overall with an average cover of 10 PPG.  Their dominance of the Rainbow Warriors should continue here Saturday.  Take Nevada. 

6* NCAAF Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Marshall +4 

The Key: Cincinnati was exposed in its 42-0 road loss at Ohio State.  The Bearcats should not even be favored in this game.  Marshall’s only loss came on the road at Boise State as 14-point dog in a 7-point loss.  The Thundering Herd gave the Broncos all they could handle.  Luke Fickell is 2-11 ATS off a home win in all games he has coached.  Doc Holliday is 6-0 ATS against AAC opponents as the coach of Marshall.  The Bearcats are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games.  The Thundering Herd are 16-4-2 ATS in their last 22 home games against a team with a winning record.  Take Marshall. 

6* SEC *CA$H COW* on Ole Miss +38.5 

The Key: The Ole Miss Rebels have been a punching bag for the Alabama Crimson Tide the last 2 seasons.  But they are finally in a position to put up a fight in 2019.  They brought in Rich Rodriquez to be their offensive coordinator, and they also brought in Mike MacIntyre to be their defensive coordinator.  The Rebels could easily be 4-0 but they are just 2-2 right now, which has them undervalued.  They only lost by 5 at Memphis and by 8 at home to Cal.  They were stopped inside the 1 from forcing OT against Cal and put up over 500 yards against their vaunted defense.  Bets against favorites of 31.5 or more points off a home win, with a winning record on the season are 29-7 ATS over the last 5 years.  Take Ole Miss. 

7* Duke/Virginia Tech ESPN Friday Night Lights on Virginia Tech -2.5 

The Key: We are getting the Virginia Tech Hokies cheap tonight.  They aren’t off to the most impressive start in the world, but they had a bye week to get things corrected and come out and take care of business at home here against Duke.  Turnovers have been a problem with 9 of them in 3 games, so look for that to be the focal point leading up to this game.  Virginia Tech has won 13 of its last 15 meetings with Duke and I expect that series domination to continue tonight.  The Hokies are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games against a team with a winning road record.  Take Virginia Tech. 

6* WMU/Syracuse NCAAF *CA$H COW* on Western Michigan +5.5 

The Key: This is a clear flat spot for the Syracuse Orange.  They are coming off back-to-back blowout losses to Maryland (by 43) and Clemson (by 35).  After facing Clemson last week in a big night game, there’s no way they will get up for Western Michigan this week.  Syracuse is one of the most overrated teams in the country as you can see with those 2 blowout losses.  Western Michigan has been impressive and may be the best team in the MAC.  Their only loss came on the road against Michigan State, and they beat Monmouth by 35 and Georgia State by 47 at home.  That’s the same Georgia State team that upset Tennessee on the road earlier this year.  It’s a veteran WMU bunch that returned 17 starters this year.  Bets against home favorites after allowing 6.5 or more rushing yards per attempt in 2 straight games are 35-8 ATS over the last 10 seasons.  WMU is rushing for 208 YPG and 5.8 YPC this season, and Syracuse is giving up 190 YPG and 5.3 YPC this year.  Take Western Michigan. 

6* ULM/Iowa State NCAAF *CA$H COW* on Louisiana-Monroe +19 

The Key: Iowa State is deflated following its 17-18 home loss to rival Iowa in the Cy-Hawk series last week.  The Cyclones have their Big 12 opener on deck next week against Baylor.  That makes this a sandwich game for them.  The Cyclones won’t be fully up for this game against Louisiana-Monroe.  It’s a good spot for the Warhawks as they are coming off a bye week following a 44-45 (OT) loss at Florida State.  That game showed their potential as they nearly upset the Seminoles as 23-point road dogs.  And they know they have what it takes to compete with Iowa State now.  I think the field conditions at Iowa State will favor the underdog here as it’s supposed to be sloppy with rain in the forecast the next several days leading up to the game.  We saw last year Iowa State nearly lose to Drake as more than a 40-point favorite in sloppy conditions.  Take Louisiana-Monroe. 

7* Cal/Ole Miss ESPNU *HEAVY HITTER* on Ole Miss -2.5 

The Key: Ole Miss wants revenge from a 16-27 upset loss at Cal 2 years ago.  Now they get Cal at home this time around in an early start game that will be a 9:00 AM body clock game for the Golden Bears.  I think Cal players will still feel sleepy by the time this game starts, and they won’t be ready for the men among boys on the other sideline.  I’ll almost always side with SEC over Pac-12, especially when it’s two middle of the road teams here like Cal and Ole Miss.  The Rebels are one of the most improved teams in the country defensively this season, holding Memphis to just 15 points on the road in the opener.  And the Rebels are clearly the better team offensively.  Take Ole Miss. 

7* Utah/USC NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Utah -3.5 

The Key: The Utah Utes are a legit Pac-12 title contender this season.  This is a huge game for them to go on the road and handle their business against USC.  These teams already have a common opponent in BYU.  Utah won at BYU 30-12, while USC lost at BYU 27-30.  Clay Helton just has not been able to deliver in this underdog role.  Helton is 1-12 SU & 2-11 ATS as an underdog at USC with 11 losses by double-digits.  The 12 losses have come by an average of 18.8 PPG.  Take Utah. 

6* Houston/Tulane AAC *CA$H COW* on Tulane -4.5 

The Key: Tulane looks like a real contender in the AAC.  They have an improved offense in their new spread option look, and their defense is one of the best int he conference.  Tulane is averaging 35.3 PPG and giving up just 14.7 PPG this year.  And that includes games against two very good teams in Auburn and FIU.  Houston has a leaky defense, and that is going to be the difference in this game.  And D’Eriq King doesn’t look as good in Dana Holgorsen’s offense as he did in their offense last year.  Tulane is 8-0 ATS in its last 8 home games off a win by 28 points or more.  The Green Wave are 7-0 ATS in home games in the first half of the season over the last 3 years.  Take Tulane. 

6* TCU/Purdue NCAAF *CA$H COW* on TCU -1 

The Key: Purdue QB Elijah Sindelar is leading the nation in passing through 2 games.  He suffered a concussion against Vanderbilt and is questionable to play this week.  Even if he goes, he won’t be 100%.  You can bet TCU head coach Gary Patterson will have his team ready for Purdue’s spread system.  The Horned Frogs are coming off a bye week and consistently have one of the best defenses in the Big 12.  They see many offenses in the Big 12 that are similar to Purdue, which also helps.  Purdue is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 home games after 2 straight games where 60 total points or more were scored.  Take TCU. 

6* FSU/Virginia ACC *CA$H COW* on Virginia -7 

The Key: Fans of the Virginia Cavaliers are excited about this team.  They are coming off an 8-5 season in which they nearly won the Coastal.  And they have 14 starters back from that squad including QB Perkins, who is probably the 2nd-best QB in the ACC.  This is a night game in Charlottesville which will mean that fans will be more boisterous than normal, especially with a program the caliber of Florida State coming to town.  But these aren’t the same old Seminoles.  They went 5-7 last year and are fortunate to not be 0-2 this year.  They lost to Boise State at home and needed overtime to be Louisiana Monroe as a 23-point favorite.  The Seminoles have one of the worst defenses in the country in allowing 40 PPG and 520 YPG.  Virginia has one of the best defenses in the country giving up 15.5 PPG and 228 YPG.  Willie Taggart is 0-7 ATS off a home games as the coach of the Seminoles.  Take Virginia. 

6* Saturday NCAAF *Total* Annihilator on Texas State/SMU OVER 62 

The Key: We have two offensive minds going at it here in Jake Spavital of Texas State and Sonny Dykes of SMU.  This should be a shootout.  Dykes got a huge transfer in Shane Buechele from Texas and he is off to a great start this season.  SMU’s offense is averaging 43.0 PPG and 505 YPG in its first 2 victories over a couple of quality Arkansas State and North Texas teams.  Texas State should finally get its offense going after being held down by 2 very good defenses in Texas A&M and Wyoming.  SMU’s defense is sub par to say the least in allowing 28.5 PPG and 405 YPG thus far.  Dykes is 15-5 OVER as a home favorite lifetime as a head coach.  The OVER is 4-0 in Mustangs last 4 non-conference games.  Take the OVER. 

6* Southern Miss/Troy NCAAF *CA$H COW* on Troy -2.5 

The Key: Troy had a bye last week following its 43-14 win over Campbell in the opener.  Now they have 2 weeks to get ready for Southern Miss.  The Eagles are coming off a 15-38 loss at Mississippi State and it will be hard for them to be as hungry for this game as they were with that opportunity to face an SEC school.  It was also a physical game that would have taken a lot out of them.  Troy is one of the best Sun Belt programs there is as they are in title contention almost every year.  And they have 13 starters back for new head coach Chip Lindsey.  The Trojans are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games following a win.  Troy is 13-4-1 ATS in its last 18 games overall.  Take Troy. 

7* Iowa/Iowa State Rivalry Game of the Year on Iowa State +1.5 

The Key: The Iowa State Cyclones had a bye week to get ready for Iowa.  It’s exactly what they needed as they were humbled in needing OT to beat UNI, so it should have been a productive two weeks of practice.  I think this line is an overreaction to that UNI win.  Iowa State outgained Northern Iowa by 201 yards as that was a misleading final.  Iowa has played Miami Ohio and Rutgers, two terrible teams and is getting too much credit for blowing out both.  Iowa State is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games as a home dog.  Take Iowa State. 

7* Washington State/Houston NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Houston +9.5 

The Key: No team has played an easier schedule than Washington State.  The Cougars are getting too much respect from oddsmakers for their blowout wins over New Mexico State and Northern Colorado.  This team lost a lot of talent from last year and now they step up in class here against Houston.  This is a Houston team that is battle tested with their 31-49 loss to Oklahoma in the opener.  They’ll be ready for Washington State, and this is basically a home game for them played at the Texans’ stadium in Houston.  D’Eriq King is one of the best quarterbacks in the country and will be ready to match Mike Leach and company score for score.  Take Houston. 

6* Western Michigan/Michigan State NCAAF *CA$H COW* on Western Michigan +16 

The Key: Western Michigan is probably the class of the MAC this season.  They returned 17 starters and are coming off a 48-13 trouncing of Monmouth in the opener.  Michigan State looks to have the same offensive struggles they had last year as they only beat Tulsa 28-7 as 23.5-point favorites.  They only had 303 total yards against a bad Tulsa defense.  Not being able to score consistently is going to make it difficult for the Spartans to cover this lofty number Saturday against a much better team than Tulsa.  The Spartans are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games.  The Broncos are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 against Big Ten teams.  Take Western Michigan. 

6* North Texas/SMU NCAAF *CA$H COW* on SMU -3 

The Key: The SMU Mustangs are on a mission to make a bowl game this year after just missing out with a 5-7 record last year.  They are off to a good start with their 37-30 upset road win over a very good Arkansas State program last week.  This is a Mustangs team that returned 16 starters and added Texas transfer Shane Buechele at quarterback, massively upgrading the position.  North Texas gave up 31 points to Abilene Christian last week and it’s clear their defense isn’t very good with just 5 returning starters, so the Mustangs should be able to score at will.  Home field advantage has been big in this series as the home team is 9-1 SU & 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  SMU won 54-32 at home against North Texas in 2017.  This is a short number for them to have to cover at home Saturday.  North Texas is 0-7 ATS after a game where they forced one or fewer turnovers over the last 2 seasons.  The Mean Green are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games overall.  Take SMU. 

7* NCAAF Non-Conference Game of the Year on Texas State +7.5 

The Key: The Texas State Bobcats should be one of the most improved teams in the country this season.  They brought back 19 starters and nabbed an offensive-minded head coach in Jake Spavital and he brought some great coordinators with him.  It didn’t show against Texas A&M in the opener as they lost 7-41 as 34-point dogs, but that’s expected against a team the caliber of the Aggies.  Wyoming is coming off a misleading 37-31 upset of Missouri, setting the Cowboys up for a big letdown spot.  They gave up 537 yards and were outgained by 148 yards in that game.  Missouri twice turned it over going into the end zone, and also gave up another turnover for a score.  Their 3 turnovers were essentially a 24-point swing.  Bets on home dogs of 3.5 to 10 points who allowed 6.25 or more yards per play in their previous game, with 8 or more offensive starters and the QB returning in the first month of the season are 22-3 ATS since 1992.  Take Texas State. 

6* Wake Forest/Rice NCAAF *CA$H COW* on Rice +19.5 

The Key: Rice had a great showing in Week 1 and only lost on a last minute touchdown to Army 14-7 as more than three touchdown underdogs.  I like what the new head coach from Stanford is doing with this team, upgrading the offensive line and becoming more physical.  Wake Forest is coming off a last-second win over a Utah State team that lost almost everyone from last year.  The Demon Deacons have their conference opener against UNC on deck and may not be fully focused for this game.  That’s especially the case after blowing out Rice at home last year.  They may not be taking this game serious enough.  Wake Forest is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points.  Rice is 45-25 ATS in its last 70 games as a home underdog.  Take Rice. 

7* Fresno State/USC ESPN *HEAVY HITTER* on USC -13.5 

The Key: The USC Trojans come into the 2019 season flying under the radar for the first time in a long time.  That’s because they didn’t even make a bowl game last year with a 5-7 record.  But with the talent they recruit, the Trojans won’t be down for long.  They had won double-digit games in the previous two seasons under Clay Helton.  Fresno State has been a good story the last few years, but they lose a ton of talent from those teams.  They only have 9 starters back and are the 2nd-least experienced team in the country this year. USC comes in hungry to get their season off on solid footing and won’t be taking the Bulldogs lightly.  Take USC. 

7* Wisconsin/USF ESPN *HEAVY HITTER* on Wisconsin -10 

The Key: The Wisconsin Badgers are coming off a down year, which for them is 8-5.  They had won 10 or more games in 4 straight years prior.  And they should get back to being their dominant selves this year.  It starts with Week 1 against South Florida, which went 7-6 last year.  The Bulls won their first 7 games against weak competition, then lost their final 6 when they took a step up in class.  This is a step up in class for them as well.  Bets on road favorites of 10 to 21 points who were an excellent rushing team last season averaging 5.25 YPC or more are 26-6 ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Take Wisconsin. 

7* UCLA/Cincinnati ESPN *HEAVY HITTER* on Cincinnati -2 

The Key: The Cincinnati Bearcats went on the road and beat UCLA 26-17 last year as 14-point underdogs.  Now they get them at home in the rematch and it should be more of the same.  This is a Cincinnati team that won 11 games last year and has 14 starters back from that squad, including QB Desmond Ridder and RB Michael Warren, who rushed for 1,329 yards and 19 touchdowns last year.  The Bearcats went 6-0 at home last season and outscored opponents by 30.0 PPG.  Take Cincinnati. 

7* Florida/Miami ESPN *HEAVY HITTER* on Florida -7 

The Key: Dan Mullen turned Mississippi State into an SEC power, which is hard to do.  Then he took a 4-7 Florida team before arriving into a 10-3 team last year that beat Michigan 41-15 in the Peach Bowl.  Mullen is easily a Top 5 coach in the country, and he doesn’t get the respect he deserves.  Now the Gators have 13 returning starters this year with a loaded defense that has 8 starters back.  Having a proven QB in Feleipe Franks and all of his top receivers back from last year plus their leading rusher will help ease the pain of only having 5 returning starters on offense.  I just don’t trust Miami.  They went 7-6 last year and are going through a coaching change with Manny Diaz taking over after accepting the Temple job.  They only have 12 returning starters and will be starting a redshirt freshman quarterback.  Their offense was poor last year and will be again to start, especially facing a defense that caliber of Florida.  Remember last year Miami was dominated 17-33 by LSU in the opener, and they will get a similar fate here against another SEC power in the Gators.  The Hurricanes are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 neutral site games.  The Gators are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games.  Take Florida. 

7* Alabama/Clemson *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 58 

The Key: Forecasts are calling for rain in Santa Clara and it’s going to be colder than normal.  It will likely be a sloppy field, which will benefit the UNDER.  Also benefitting the UNDER is that these are two of the best defenses in the country.  The Tigers allow just 12.9 PPG and 275 YPG while the Crimson Tide yield only 16.2 PPG and 308 YPG.  Neither of these offenses have faced a defense as good as the one they will be facing tonight.  Clemson is 9-0 UNDER against good teams who outscore their opponents by 10 or more points per game over the last 2 seasons.  Take the UNDER. 

7* NCAAF Bowl Game of the Year on Texas +12 

The Key: Tom Herman as an underdog is a scary proposition for opponents.  Herman is 12-2 ATS as a dog in his head coaching career and even better than that dating back to his time as an assistant at Iowa State and Ohio State with something like a 22-2 ATS record as a dog.  Georgia doesn’t want to be here.  The Bulldogs wanted to make the four-team playoff and are very disappointed they didn’t.  They were the final team left out.  Those teams never seem to show up when they were the final team left out, or right on the borderline of making the playoffs.  Texas will be able to hang around because of it.  Take Texas. 

7* Northwestern/Utah NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Northwestern +7 

The Key: Northwestern is relishing this opportunity to be playing in the Holiday Bowl.  I think Utah is the more disappointed team after scoring just 3 points in a loss to Washington that cost them a trip to the Rose Bowl.  Pat Fitzgerald has certainly gotten his team to play well in the underdog role.  Underdogs went 11-1-1 ATS in Northwestern games this season.  Northwestern pulled off 5 outright upsets in 7 tries as an underdogs this season.  And the two losses were to Michigan (by 3) and Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship.  The Wildcats are 6-0 ATS against teams who win 60% to 75% of their games over the last 2 seasons.  Take Northwestern. 

7* Alabama/Oklahoma *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 79 

The Key: Alabama will utilize its running game to keep the Oklahoma offense off the field in this game.  And the Alabama defense is way better than anything Oklahoma has seen this season.  This should be much lower scoring than the oddsmakers anticipate.  Take the UNDER. 

6* Notre Dame/Clemson *CA$H COW* on Notre Dame +13.5 

The Key: Five times in college football history have two teams gone into bowl games undefeated with one team favored by a touchdown or more.  All five times, the underdog won the game outright.  I think Notre Dame is way better than it is getting credit for.  Take Notre Dame. 

6* Auburn/Purdue Music City Bowl *CA$H COW* on Purdue +3.5 

The Key: Purdue battled back from an 0-3 start this season to get to 6-6 and a bowl.  They pulled off upsets over Boston College and Ohio State along the way, and they needed to win at Indiana in their season finale to get their 6th win.  The Boilermakers certainly want to be here.  And they are better than their 6-6 record would suggest as they lost 4 games by 4 points or less this year.  They were really close to being a 10-2 team.  Auburn does not want to be here.  They lost to Alabama 21-52 in the Iron Bowl to punctuate what has been a very disappointing 7-5 season.  They only beat 2 bowl teams all season in Washington and Texas A&M, which were both close wins that could have gone either way.  Purdue is 9-1 ATS vs. good passing teams with a 58% completion percentage or better over the last 2 seasons.  The Boilermakers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games.  The Tigers are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games.  Take Purdue. 

6* Buffalo/Troy NCAAF *CA$H COW* on Buffalo PK 

The Key: Buffalo is far and away the best team in the MAC.  And because they blew a 19-point second half lead against NIU and lost 29-30 in the MAC Championship, they’ll be extra hungry to want to erase that sour taste.  Look for them to beat Troy here, which is deflated following its loss to Appalachian State in the season finale that cost them a trip to the Sun Belt title game.  Buffalo has played the tougher schedule and has put up better numbers than Troy, and thus are the better team.  The Bulls are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a loss and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss.  The Trojans are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games against MAC teams.  Take Buffalo. 

7* Ohio/San Diego State *HEAVY HITTER* on San Diego State +3 

The Key: Wrong team favored here.  Ohio getting too much respect for their finish to the season, while SDSU getting killed by oddsmakers for their 0-3 finish to the season.  The Aztecs weren’t motivated at all over their final 3 games and now will be motivated to finish off their season with a win.  The Bobcats were motivated down the stretch trying to win the MAC.  The MAC is just 6-24 SU in bowl games over the last 6 years.  And after an 0-2 start to this bowl season, the MAC is now 1-12 SU over the last 3 seasons in bowl games.  The Aztecs are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games as underdogs, which includes outright upsets over Boise State and Arizona State this season.  Take San Diego State. 

7* December Bowl Total of the Year on ASU/Fresno State UNDER 53.5 

The Key: Two teams with great defenses square off in the Las Vegas Bowl Saturday.  Fresno State has been elite defensively, giving up only 13.7 PPG on the season.  Arizona State allows 25.1 PPG.  And these are two mediocre offenses.  But my favorite thing about these offenses is that they don’t turn the football overall.  Fresno State has committed just 11 turnovers in 13 games, while ASU has committed only 8 turnovers in 12 games.  Turnovers usually create easy points, and since both teams won’t be turning it over, I think that greatly benefits the UNDER.  ASU’s offense suffered a big blow when it was announced leading receiver N’Keal Harry would skip the bowl game to get ready for the NFL Draft.  He may be the best receiver in the Pac-12, catching 73 balls for 1,088 yards and 9 touchdowns this season.  The UNDER is 22-8 in Bulldogs last 30 games overall.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Bulldogs last 6 games this season with a total of 49.5 to 56 points.  Take the UNDER. 

6* Fresno/Boise MWC *CA$H COW* on UNDER 53 

The Key: This will be the 4th meeting between Fresno State and Boise State in the last 2 seasons.  It will be the 2nd consecutive year that they’ve played in the regular season and then also in the MWC Championship Game.  To say they are familiar with one another would be an understatement.  And that clearly favors the UNDER.  They have combined for 45, 31 and 41 points in their first 3 meetings, and now we have a total of 53 here.  That’s 14 points more than the 39 points they have averaged in their 3 previous meetings.  Fresno is 9-0 UNDER off a home win over the last 2 seasons.  Fresno is 6-0 UNDER in road games this season.  The UNDER is 19-7 in Bulldogs last 26 home games.  The UNDER is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.  The UNDER is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings at Boise State.  Take the UNDER. 

6* Clemson/Pitt ACC *CA$H COW* on Pittsburgh +28 

The Key: The Pitt Panthers pulled the 43-42 upset over Clemson back in 2016 as 21.5-point underdogs.  They know what it takes to hang with this team.  And they are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall, so oddsmakers have failed to give them the respect they deserve here down the stretch.  It’s happening again here Saturday as they are 28-point underdogs to the Tigers.  Dano Swinney is only 3-12 ATS as a favorite of 21.5 to 31 points as the coach of Clemson.  This is the spot that the Tigers have failed to cover time and time again when the expectations are too high.  Take Pittsburgh. 

7* Alabama/Georgia SEC Game of the Year on Georgia +12 

The Key: Georgia wants to avenge its 26-23 (OT) loss to Alabama in the championship game last year.  This is the opportunity they’ve waited a year for, and I expect them to take advantage.  They are the team best equipped to beat Alabama in the country.  They have an elite defense and an experienced offense with yet another elite running game, plus Jake Fromm calling the shots at quarterback.  Bets on neutral field underdogs who average 200 or more rushing yards per game after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in 4 straight games are 24-4 ATS since 1992.  Take Georgia. 

7* NIU/Buffalo NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Buffalo -3 

The Key: I believe Buffalo to be the better of these two teams, and I don’t really even think it’s close.  While NIU has the better defense, they don’t have the offense that can keep up with Buffalo.  The Bulls score 35.2 PPG this season behind a balanced attack with 200 rushing yards and 219 passing yards per game.  And they have a pretty good defense of their own giving up 24.2 PPG.  NIU averages a putrid 19.9 PPG and 318 YPG.  The Huskies give up 20.9 PPG, so they have a good defense, but they are actually getting outscored and outgained on the season.  They were fortunate to make the MAC Championship to say the least as the MAC West was down this season.  The Huskies are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games as a neutral field underdog.  Buffalo is 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS against MAC opponents this season.  They are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 conference games dating back to last season.  The Bulls are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games overall.  Take Buffalo. 

7* South Carolina/Clemson ESPN *HEAVY HITTER* on South Carolina +26.5 

The Key: Clemson will make the four-team playoff no matter what happens in this game against South Carolina as long as they beat Pitt next week in the ACC Championship.  The Tigers are getting too much love now after going 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.  They did not cover as 29.5-point favorites against Duke last week in a 29-point win.  And now they are 26.5-point favorites against South Carolina, a team that is much better than Duke.  The Gamecocks have their best offense of the Will Muschamp era this season as they are scoring 32.8 PPG.  And they still have a solid defense.  They have what it takes to stay within 4 touchdowns of the Tigers.  The Gamecocks are 7-0 ATS in road games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.  South Carolina is 7-1-1 ATS in its last 9 road games overall.  The Tigers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games.  Take South Carolina. 

6* Sun Belt Game of the Day on Georgia Southern -10.5 

The Key: Georgia Southern currently sits at 8-3 while having a tremendous season in the Sun Belt.  Two more wins and they can get to 10, which would be a huge accomplishment at the FBS level.  Georgia State has lost six straight while going 0-5-1 ATS in the process to drop to 2-9 SU & 2-8-1 ATS on the season.  This game is a matchup problem for Georgia State.  The Panthers have a horrible defense that gives up 37.6 PPG and 499 YPG on the season.  Their biggest weakness is against the run, where they give up 248 RYPG and 6.6 YPC.  Georgia Southern is a triple-option team that rushes for 259 RYPG and 5.2 YPC.  They will have their way on the ground against the Panthers today.  The Panthers are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 conference games.  Take Georgia Southern. 

6* AAC Game of the Day on Navy +6.5 

The Key: Navy isn’t a team that’s going to quit.  The Midshipmen showed that the last two weeks as they gave UCF a run for their money in an 11-point loss as 23.5-point dogs, and they beat Tulsa 37-29 as 5.5-point favorites.  They should be able to stay within a touchdown of Tulane and possibly pull the upset today.  Tulane is not playing well, only beating ECU by 6 as 10.5-point favorites, and losing 17-48 to Houston as 7.5-point dogs the last two weeks.  They are choking away their chance at making a bowl for a second straight season.  Navy is 82-45 ATS in its last 127 road games.  The Midshipmen are 22-7 ATS in their last 29 road games after having lost 2 of their last 3 coming in.  The Green Wave are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 home games off a blowout loss by 21 points arm ore to a conference opponent.  Ken Niumatalolo is 22-12 ATS as a road underdog as the coach of Navy.  Take Navy. 

7* Washington/Wash State NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Washington State -2 

The Key: This year just feels different.  I know Washington has owned Washington State in the Apple Cup, but this is the best Cougars team that Mike Leach has had yet.  And I think they’re ready to take that next step.  The Cougars are 10-1 SU & 10-1 ATS this season, getting overlooked all year.  Their only loss came early in the season by a field goal at USC.  Washington has been overvalued all season, going 8-3 SU & 2-9 ATS.  The Huskies are 0-6 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better this season.  Take Washington State. 

6* ECU/Cincinnati AAC *CA$H COW* on East Carolina +17 

The Key: Cincinnati is coming off its Super Bowl last week against UCF that decided the AAC East title.  After losing that game 13-38, I just can’t foresee the Bearcats playing well this week as a hangover is in effect.  And now they’ll be up against an ECU team that has proven it can play with anyone, especially now that freshman QB Holton Ahlers has taken over.  Ahlers has played the better part of 5 games this season, throwing for over 1,600 yards with 11 touchdowns and only 2 interceptions.  He has added 571 yards and 6 touchdowns on the ground, putting up monster numbers in only a handful of games this year. And he’ll make enough plays to keep the Pirates in this game Friday as well.  The Bearcats are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing 37 points or more.  Take East Carolina. 

6* Colorado State/Air Force MWC *CA$H COW* on Colorado State +14.5 

The Key: Both Air Force and Colorado State have fallen short of bowl eligibility this season.  So both teams are playing for pride, and I don’t see an advantage for either team in that department.  Both are coming off crushing losses, but I was way impressed with Colorado State’s 24-29 loss as 29.5-point underdogs to Utah State last week.  Utah State is one of the best teams in the country, and the Rams outgained them 506 to 310 for the game and really should have won.  The Rams average nearly 300 passing yards per game this season, and they should have their way with an Air Force defense that gives up 8.7 yards per attempt through the air this year.  Air Force is 1-8 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.  Take Colorado State. 

6* UNLV/Hawaii Mountain West *BAILOUT* on Hawaii -6.5 

The Key: The Hawaii Rainbow Warriors are 6-5 this season.  But they need one more win for a bowl because they play 13 games, which requires 7 wins.  And they have a road game on deck next week against San Diego State.  So this will be Hawaii’s Super Bowl.  And they should be well prepared considering they had a bye last week to get ready for it.  UNLV played and won its Super Bowl last week in a 27-24 upset at San Diego State as 24-point dogs.  But San Diego State was looking ahead to its game with Fresno State this week to decide the division title.  And UNLV won’t show up at all this week against the Rainbow Warriors in my estimation.  UNLV is 2-14 ATS in its last 16 games off a road win against a conference opponent.  Take Hawaii. 

6* Sun Belt Game of the Day on UL-Lafayette -17 

The Key: Lafayette sits at 5-5 and one win away from bowl eligibility here as they host South Alabama.  They want to take care of business here on Senior Day and will be hungry to do so because they don’t want to try and have to win next week against red-hot Louisiana-Monroe on the road.  They should handle their business against South Alabama, which is 1-6 in its last 7 games overall with all 6 losses coming by 17 points or more.  The Jaguars are 0-5 on the road this season and losing by 32.6 PPG on average.  Lafayette is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS at home and scoring 45.2 PPG with 554 YPG.  Their offense is built to cover big spreads like this.  South Alabama is 0-7 ATS in its last 7 games after having lost 6 or 7 of its last 8 games coming in.  The Jaguars are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 road games.  The Rajin’ Cajuns are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.  Take UL-Lafayette. 

6* Indiana/Michigan Big Ten *CA$H COW* on Indiana +28.5 

The Key: Michigan has its Super Bowl on deck against Ohio State.  I have to think the Wolverines will be looking past the Hoosiers and ahead to that game, which will decide the Big Ten East champion and possibly which team makes the four-team playoff.  Any lack of focus out of the Wolverines this week and it’s going to be tough to cover this 28.5-point spread.  Even if they show up it’s going to be tough because the Hoosiers are no pushovers.  They have yet to lose a game by more than 26 points despite playing a rugged Big Ten East schedule.  Jim Harbaugh is 0-6 ATS off a win by 35 points or more as the coach of the Wolverines.  Take Indiana. 

6* NCAAF Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Liberty +28 

The Key: Auburn has the Iron Bowl on deck against Alabama next week.  The Tigers just lost to Georgia last week.  This is a sandwich game for them.  They had a similar situation earlier this season when they only beat Southern Miss 24-13 at home as 27.5-point favorites.  Now they’re 28-point favorites against Liberty here, a Liberty team that has been competitive in almost every game this season.  Liberty is 7-0 ATS in its last 7 games as a road dog of 21.5 or more points.  Take Liberty. 

7* Mountain West Game of the Month on Wyoming -2.5 

The Key: Wyoming has fought its way back into bowl contention at 4-6 on the season.  The Cowboys went on the road and beat Colorado State 34-21 and topped San Jose State 24-9 at home.  Then they had a bye last week to get ready for the stretch run, where now if they beat Air Force and New Mexico they will get to a bowl, which is very doable.  It starts with taking care of Air Force here, and they have the rest advantage because Air Force played New Mexico last week.  The Falcons only run the football as they average just 14 pass attempts per game.  That bodes well for Wyoming, which is giving up just 114 rushing yards per game and 3.5 per carry this season.  The Falcons are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 conference games, and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The Cowboys are 14-3 ATS in the last 17 meetings, including 4-0 ATS in the last 4 home meetings.  Take Wyoming. 

7* Memphis/SMU NCAAF Friday Night Lights on SMU +9 

The Key: SMU can clinch a bowl berth with a win Friday night at home over Memphis.  Memphis has already clinched a bowl at 6-4.  It’s clear to me the hungrier team will be the home underdog Mustangs.  And they are fighting for a bowl and have been for weeks, going 3-1 in their last 4 games with their only loss coming to nationally ranked Cincinnati in overtime.  They upset Tulane as 9.5-point road dogs 27-23 and upset Houston 45-31 as 14-point home dogs.  And now they are catching too many points against Memphis.  The Tigers are just 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS on the road this season, where their defense is giving up 42 PPG and 504 YPG.  SMU has topped 500 total yards in each of its last two games against Houston and UConn while averaging 53.5 PPG and should be able to move the ball at will.  Bets on home dogs of 3.5 to 10 points who scored 42 or more points in 2 straight games coming in are 44-12 ATS over the last 5 years.  Take SMU. 

7* FAU/North Texas C-USA *HEAVY HITTER* on North Texas -3.5 

The Key: North Texas wants revenge from two losses to FAU last season.  They lost 69-31 in the regular season and 41-17 in the conference championship game.  But there’s no question the Mean Green have the better team in 2018, and it will show on the field Thursday night.  The Owls are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games.  The Mean Green are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 November games.  Take North Texas. 

6* Buffalo/Ohio MAC *CA$H COW* on Ohio -2.5 

The Key: Buffalo knows it can clinch the MAC East title with a win over Bowling Green next week.  They won’t be putting all their eggs into one basket here against Ohio because of it, knowing they have another shot to clinch next week if they should lose this game.  I think Ohio comes in determined after a tough 2-point loss to Miami Ohio last week with the safety being the difference.  Ohio has gone 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their previous 6 games before that one and were playing some great football.  Now they want to prove that they are the best team in the MAC East by beating Buffalo tonight, and keeping their hopes alive of winning the division.  The Bobcats are 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS at home this year and winning by 23.7 PPG on average.  Ohio is 10-1 SU in its last 11 home meetings with Buffalo.  The Bobcats are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 vs. good offensive teams that score 34 or more points per game.  Take Ohio. 

7* FSU/Notre Dame Non-Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Florida State +17 

The Key: This line has hardly moved since it was announced that Ian Book was out at quarterback for Notre Dame.  Oddsmakers aren’t adjusting enough for his absence.  Brandon Wimbush will take his place, and he’s a terrible passer.  He’s completing just 55.3% of his passes this season compared to 74.5% for Book.  Wimbush has a 1/4 TD/INT ratio compared to the 15/4 mark for Book.  Wimbush is a running quarterback.  That plays right into Florida State’s hands.  The biggest strength of this entire FSU team is their run defense.  The Seminoles only give up 111 RYPG and 2.8 YPC!  That’s not what you would expect form a 4-5 team like them.  But this is the Super Bowl for the Seminoles and they’ll come to play tonight to try and knock off the unbeaten Fighting Irish.  The Seminoles are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games.  The Fighting Irish are 7-20-1 ATS in their last 28 November games.  All the pressure is on the Irish tonight.  Take Florida State. 

6* Oregon/Utah Pac-12 *CA$H COW* on Oregon +4.5 

The Key: Utah’s two best offensive players are out for this game.  QB Tyler Huntley is out with a broken collarbone, while star RB Zack Moss (1,092 yards, 11 TD, 6.1 YPC) is out with an ankle injury.  The Utes shouldn’t even be favored in this game tonight.  Justin Herbert and this Oregon offense will be the best unit on the field now.  Oregon has had Utah’s number, going 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS in the last 6 meetings.  The Ducks won outright as underdogs each of the last 2 seasons, and they’ll do the same again here Saturday given the huge injuries for the Utes.  Bets against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points who are coming off an upset loss as a road favorite of 7 or more, in weeks 10 through 13 are 35-9 ATS since 1992.  Take Oregon. 

6* Sun Belt Game of the Day on UL-Monroe -7 

The Key: The ULM Warhawks have reeled off 3 straight victories to get to 5-4 this season.  They can clinch bowl eligibility with a win Saturday and should be able to do so in blowout fashion against 2-7 South Alabama.  Few teams were more impressive than ULM last week.  They beat Georgia Southern 44-25 and outgained them by a ridiculous 357 yards in the process.  That was a one-loss GA Southern team at the time whose lone loss came to Clemson.  It was as impressive as any win in the Sun Belt this season.  Look for the Warhawks to keep rolling this weekend.  South Alabama is 1-14 ATS off a game where it committed one or fewer turnovers over the last 3 seasons.  Take UL-Monroe. 

6* Northwestern/Iowa Big Ten *CA$H COW* on Northwestern +10 

The Key: Underdogs are 9-0-1 ATS in Northwestern games this season.  The Wildcats have covered every time they’ve been a dog this season with one push.  And they are 5-1 in Big Ten play this season with wins over Michigan State, Wisconsin and Purdue.  They are a good team and they aren’t getting treated like it.  The Iowa Hawkeyes already have 3 conference losses and could suffer a hangover here off their two straight tough losses in the closing seconds to Purdue and Penn State.  Take Northwestern. 

6* Mississippi State/Alabama SEC *CA$H COW* on Mississippi State +24.5 

The Key: The Alabama Crimson Tide are prone to hangovers after big wins.  And this is the perfect spot for one after their huge win at LSU last week.  The Mississippi State Bulldogs have managed to stay within 25 points of Alabama in 11 of the past 14 meetings.  They have been competitive against what has been the most dominant football program ever over the past decade-plus.  Mississippi State certainly has the defense to be competitive this season, too.  The Bulldogs are yielding just 12.3 PPG this year.  They have been stout against the run and the pass.  Mobile QB Nick Fitzgerald should be able to do enough with his legs to put up enough points to stay within the number as well.  Take Mississippi State. 

7* Toledo/NIU MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Northern Illinois -3 

The Key: The Northern Illinois Huskies can basically wrap up to the MAC West title with a win tonight.  No question they’ll be motivated to get it done.  This has been one of the best teams in the MAC all season, and they should be able to handle Toledo by more than a field goal at home tonight.  NIU is 6-3 this season with its 3 losses coming to Utah, Iowa and Florida State.  The Huskies have handled their business in MAC play this year with a 5-0 conference record.  They also went on the road and upset BYU.  Toledo is still without starting QB Mitchell Guadagni.  Their backup has played well in his place, but against soft defenses, and he’s going to really get tested tonight against the best defense in the MAC.  The Huskies are giving up just 20.4 PPG and 327 YPG in MAC play this year.  That’s the difference in this game.  Toledo is allowing 26.4 PG and 445 YPG this season.  The Huskies are 7-0 ATS after outrushing their last opponent by 150 or more yards last game over the last 3 seasons.  The Rockets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a win.  Take Northern Illinois. 

7* Kent State/Buffalo MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Kent State +20 

The Key: Buffalo doesn’t even need to show up tonight.  The Bulls can lose outright and it won’t matter.  Next week’s game against Ohio will decided the MAC East champion.  I think their lack of motivation will allow Kent State to get the cover here.  And I also like that there is gusts of up to 50 miles per hour forecasted in this one, which should keep this a low scoring affair.  Take Kent State. 

6* Boston College/VA Tech ACC *CA$H COW* on Boston College -2 

The Key: Virginia Tech used to have a great home-field advantage.  But that is clearly no longer the case.  The Hokies are just 8-9 SU at home in ACC play over the last 5 seasons.  Boston College is a perfect 7-0 ATS in its last 7 ACC road games.  The Eagles travel well and should be able to beat a down Virginia Tech team that is 1-2 at home this season with blowout losses to both Notre Dame (23-45) and Georgia Tech (28-49).  Their only home win came against William & Mary.  And they also lost on the road to Old Dominion (35-49) as 28-point favorites earlier this season.  The Hokies have one of the youngest defenses in the country.  They are giving up 5.8 yards per carry in ACC play this year.  Boston College, which rushes for 230 yards per game this season, should have its way on the ground against the Hokies.  The Eagles are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 conference games.  The Eagles are 8-0 ATS off a home games over the last 2 seasons.  The Eagles are 14-3-1 ATS in their last 18 games overall.  Take Boston College. 

6* Georgia/Kentucky SEC *CA$H COW* on Kentucky +9.5 

The Key: Kentucky just gets no respect from oddsmakers.  The Wildcats are 9.5-point home dogs to the Georgia Bulldogs this week despite being 7-1 and ranked #9 in the country.  The Wildcats have earned that ranking by going 5-1 in ACC play with their only loss coming in overtime on the road at Texas A&M.  And I think they have what it takes to hang with Georgia this week.  Georgia looked vulnerable with its 16-36 road loss at LSU a few weeks back.  And the Bulldogs are coming off the Cocktail Party win over Florida last week, making this a precarious spot for them.  Kentucky’s defense is good enough to keep them in this game.  The Wildcats are yielding just 13 PPG and 295 YPG this season.  This will be the best ever atmosphere in Lexington for a college football game with the SEC East title essentially riding on the outcome.  Take Kentucky. 

6* Kansas State/TCU Big 12 *CA$H COW* on Kansas State +8 

The Key: The TCU Horned Frogs have hit rock bottom.  They are just 1-5 SU & 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.  Their only win came on a last-second field goal in a 17-14 home win over Iowa State as 11.5-point favorites.  They are coming off a 26-27 loss at Kansas as 13-point favorites.  Gary Patterson seems to have lost this team.  And injuries haven’t helped.  TCU recently lost its best playmakers on offense in KaVontae Turpin.  Two of the best defensive players are out for this game in LB Ty Summers and S Niko Small.  Kansas State certainly won’t quit on Bill Snyder.  The Wildcats are 3-1 ATS in their last 4 games overall with their only blowout loss coming at Oklahoma last week.  They played Texas to a 5-point game and Baylor to a 3-point game while upsetting Oklahoma State 31-12.  At 3-5 this season, the Wildcats have a great shot to win their next 3 games as they host Kansas and Texas Tech after this.  That would get them into a bowl game.  The Wildcats are 13-1 ATS in their last 14 games following a blowout road loss by 21 points or more.  Take Kansas State. 

7* NCAAF Independent Game of the Year on Liberty +2 

The Key: Liberty is the better of these two teams.  They sit at 4-3 on the season with wins over the likes of Troy and New Mexico.  And they’ve been competitive in most of their games.  Plus they had a bye last week to get ready to face UMass this week.  UMass is coming off a fortunate 22-17 victory at UConn last week as they trailed most the way.  And UConn is one of the worst teams in the country.  The Minutemen are just 3-6 this season with their other two wins coming against Duquesne and Charlotte.  All 6 of their losses have come by double-digits.  Now they have to face an option team here in Liberty.  The last time they faced an option team they lost 13-34 at Georgia Southern as 1.5-point underdogs on September 8th. Liberty is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 games as a road underdog.  Take Liberty. 

6* Iowa State/Kansas Big 12 *CA$H COW* on Iowa State -14.5 

The Key: The Iowa State Cyclones continue to fly under the radar.  Since Matt Campbell took over, this has been one of the greatest turnarounds of any program in the country.  The Cyclones have gone 23-6-1 ATS in their last 30 games overall, including 20-5-1 ATS in their last 26 conference games.  They have played the toughest schedule in the country and have gotten through with a 4-3 record.  And they’ve been in every game they’ve played with all 3 of their losses coming by 10 points or less to Iowa, Oklahoma and TCU.  They beat West Virginia handily at home, won at Oklahoma State, and handled Texas Tech at home last week.  Now they catch Kansas at a good time.  The Jayhawks are coming off a rare win in the Big 12 with a 27-26 upset victory over TCU last week.  That’s a TCU team that appears to have quit.  And I think the Jayhawks will suffer a letdown this week off that monumental win.  Look for the Cyclones to make easy work of them just as they did last season in a 45-0 win in Ames.  The Cyclones are 16-3 ATS in Saturday games over the last 2 seasons.  Take Iowa State. 

7* Colorado/Arizona NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Arizona -2.5 

The Key: Khalil Tate finally looked healthy for the first time all season last week as he returned from injury to face Oregon.  The Wildcats played their best game of the season in a 44-15 victory.  Tate threw for 189 yards and 3 touchdowns in the win.  And now the Wildcats are getting zero respect for that victory as only 2.5-point home favorites over Colorado Friday night.  I think the Wildcats remain hungry because they are 4-5 and need 2 more wins to make a bowl, and this game is a must-win if they want to get to a bowl because they have a road game at Washington State next time out that they’re unlikely to win.  And they get a bye next week so they certainly want to go into their bye with a taste of victory.  Colorado blew a huge lead against Oregon State last week and lost 34-41.  I think they could suffer a hangover from that defeat.  The Buffaloes have now lost 3 straight as the competition has ramped up.  Colorado is 0-7 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 2 of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons.  The Buffaloes are also 0-7 ATS after playing a game where 60 or more points were scores over the last 2 years.  Take Arizona. 

6* Ohio/Western Michigan MAC *CA$H COW* on Ohio -3 

The Key: The Ohio Bobcats were MAC title contenders coming into the season and now they are playing like it after a rough start in the non-conference.  They have gone 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall and 4-1 SU in their last 5 games.  Their only loss came on the road at Northern Illinois by a field goal, 21-24.  Their last two wins have been 49-14 over Bowling Green and 52-14 over Ball State.  Now they face a Western Michigan team coming off a 24-51 home loss to Toledo.  And the Broncos suffered a huge loss in that game when starting QB Jon Wassink suffered an ankle injury.  Wassink has thrown or 2,009 yards and 16 touchdowns with only 6 interceptions this season.  He also rushed for 6 scores.  It’s a big blow for the Broncos and a big downgrade to Kaleb Eleby at quarterback.  No question the Bobcats have the best QB in the MAC in Nathan Rourke, who has thrown 14 touchdowns with 5 interceptions, while also rushing for 569 yards and 6 scores.  I’ll take the team with the much better quarterback tonight.  The Bobcats are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 vs. a team with a winning record.  The Broncos are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 conference games.  Take Ohio. 

7* Ball State/Toledo MAC *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 66 

The Key: Ball State has several key injuries right now that will hamper their ability to score points.  Riley Neal means everything to this team at the quarterback position.  He was knocked out for the season in their last game and won’t be returning.  That leaves backup QB Drew Pitt to take the reigns.  Also, leading rusher James Gilbert is questionable to play tonight with a back injury.  They have some serious injuries on the offensive line as well.  For Toledo, starting QB Mitchell Guadagni is questionable with a shoulder injury, and even if he plays he won’t be 100%.  Ball State is 12-2 UNDER in its last 14 games as a road dog of 14.5 to 21 points.  The UNDER is 7-2-1 in Cardinals last 10 games overall.  The UNDER is 7-1 in Rockets last eight Wednesday games.  The UNDER is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.  The UNDER is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Toledo.  Take the UNDER. 

7* Kent State/Bowling Green MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Kent State +1.5 

The Key: Both Kent State and Bowling Green are 1-7 this season.  But it’s clear to me that Kent State is better than their record, while Bowling Green is every bit as poor as its record.  The only win for Bowling Green came 42-35 at home over Eastern Kentucky.  The lone win for Kent State came 54-14 over Howard, the same Howard team that only lost 32-38 to Ohio.  And Kent State has losses by 1, 1, and 7 points this season to Illinois, Ohio and Akron.  Bowling Green’s 7 losses have all come by 7 points or more, and 6 of them by 15 points or more.  These teams have 2 common opponents with both losing, the difference being Kent State only losing by 13 PPG while Bowling Green losing by 25 PPG.  The Golden Flashes are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 vs. teams who average 250 PYPG or more and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. teams who allow 230 RYPG or more.  The Falcons are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 home games following a loss.  The Falcons are 1-10 ATS when the total is between 63.5 and 70 over the last 3 years.  Take Kent State. 

7* Pac-12 Game of the Year on California +12 

The Key: The Cal Golden Bears finally snapped out of their funk with a 49-7 beat down of Oregon State.  That result was more indicative of the potential of this team than the three consecutive losses that preceded it.  The Golden Bears gave away those three games by committing a combined 14 turnovers in them, which is almost unheard of.  They only gave the ball away once against Oregon State and amassed 539 total yards.  They can play with Washington if they don’t turn the ball over, and likely beat them.  The Huskies are just 2-6 ATS in their 8 games this season and have been overrated all season.  They should not be double-digit road favorites over the Bears this weekend.  Cal is 7-0 ATS off a game where they committed one or fewer turnovers over the last 2 seasons.  Take Cal. 

6* Iowa/Penn State Big Ten *CA$H COW* on Iowa +5.5 

The Key: Iowa has opened 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS this season.  The Hawkeyes have been one of the most underrated teams in college football.  And they really should be 7-0.  They led Wisconsin in the final minutes, and that was even after they committed two special teams mistakes that led to Badgers touchdowns.  This team is the real deal and they will prove it by beating Penn State on the road Saturday.  The Nittany Lions had their dreams crushed with back-to-back home losses to Ohio State and Michigan State.  And then last week they were lucky to win 33-28 at Indiana as 14-point favorites because they were outgained by 137 yards and gave up 554 yards to the Hoosiers.  Iowa is one of the best teams in the country at stopping the run, giving up 80 RYPG and 2.7 YPC.  That bodes well for them being able to stop a Penn State rushing attack that is averaging 241 RYPG and 5.9 YPC.  Kirk Ferentz is 27-5 ATS vs. excellent rushing teams that average 5.25 YPC or more as the coach of the Hawkeyes.  Take Iowa. 

6* Saturday NCAAF *Upset Special* on Arizona State +3.5 

The Key: USC suffered its third loss of the season last week in a 28-41 setback at Utah.  That was a much worse loss than the final score showed as the Trojans were outgained by 336 yards.  I think the air has been lifted out from underneath their sails now.  They have no chance to win the Pac-12 and little to play for the rest of the way.  Arizona State is a team that will keep battling under first-year head coach Herm Edwards.  The Sun Devils sit at just 3-4 this season, but all 4 losses came by 7 points or less, so they’ve had a chance to win every game.  They are much better than their record suggests.  And they’ve had extra rest after playing last Thursday in a 13-20 home loss to Stanford in a game they should have won as they outgained the Cardinal by 79 yards.  Look for them to come back with a chip on their shoulder this week, rested and ready to go.  The Sun Devils are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a loss.  The Trojans are 5-16-1 ATS in their last 22 games overall.  USC is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games following an ATS loss.  The Trojans are 0-6 ATS off 3 straight conference games over the last 2 seasons.  Take Arizona State. 

7* Wyoming/Colorado State NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Colorado State -1.5 

The Key: I love the price we are getting on Colorado State as less than a field goal home favorite over Wyoming Friday night.  The Rams still have something to play for at 3-5 as they need to win 3 of their final 4 games to make a bowl.  And this one is their most winnable, so they should handle their business.  The Rams have a full week to get ready for this game after playing last Friday.  Their offense put up 489 total yards against Boise State in what was a misleading 28-56 loss.  The Broncos got 2 special teams touchdowns and the Rams outgained them by 17 yards.  Collin Hill took over for Carta-Samuels at QB midway through the game and finished 12-of-14 for 135 yards and a touchdown.  Hill is expected to get the start this week and is an upgrade over Carta-Samuels.  Wyoming is just 2-6 with very little to play for at this point.  It is coming off 4 consecutive losses, and its two wins this season have come against Wofford (17-14) and New Mexico State.  The Cowboys have been atrocious on offense in averaging just 15.5 PPG and 289 YPG this season.  I’m not sure how they are going to keep up with this potent Colorado State offense.  The Cowboys are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall.  Wyoming is 8-20 ATS in its last 28 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  Take Colorado State. 

7* Georgia Tech/Virginia Tech ACC *HEAVY HITTER* on Virginia Tech -3 

The Key: I love the situation for the Hokies tonight.  Both them and Georgia Tech are coming off bye weeks, and that clearly favors the Hokies.  Any time a team has extra time to prepare for the triple-option I’m looking to back that team because it’s so critical to get that extra prep time.  Whether it be off a bye or for a bowl game, it’s a huge advantage.  And defensive coordinator Bud Foster will be extra hungry after losing to Georgia Tech each of the last two seasons.  The Yellow Jackets are 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.  Georgia Tech is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games overall.  The Hokies are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 home games.  The Hokies are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a bye week.  Take Virginia Tech. 

7* Troy/South Alabama Sun Belt *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 54.5 

The Key: The Troy Trojans lost starting QB Kaleb Barker to a torn ACL two games ago.  Backup Sawyer Smith started against Liberty and the Trojans lost a defensive battle, 16-22.  This should be another defensive battle here against South Alabama if the recent series history is any indication.  The UNDER is 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings with combined scores of 27 (2017), 49 (2016), 42 (2015) and 40 (2014) points.  I’m shocked to see this total sitting at 54.5 given the series history plus Troy’s QB situation.  Take the UNDER. 

6* USC/Utah Pac-12 *BAILOUT* on OVER 48 

The Key: Both USC and Utah have come alive offensively.  Utah scored 40 against Stanford and 42 against Arizona in its last two games.  USC scored 39 against Washington State, 24 against Arizona and 31 against Colorado in its last three games.  I think this is a very low total given how well both offenses are clicking right now.  They’ve combined for 58 and 55 in their last two meetings.  USC is 7-0 OVER in its last 7 road games off 2 conescutive games where they committed 3 or more turnovers.  Utah is 8-0 OVER in its last 8 home games after gaining 6.25 or more yards per play in 2 consecutive games.  Take the OVER. 

6* Alabama/Tennessee SEC *CA$H COW* on Tennessee +29 

The Key: The Tennessee Vols are improving rapidly under first-year head coach Jeremy Pruitt, who was the defensive coordinator at Alabama before coming here.  And Pruitt knows Alabama’s personnel and most of its playbook, which would be a big advantage for the Vols.  The Vols are coming off a 30-24 upset road win over Auburn as 15.5-point favorites.  They covered against Georgia the previous week as 31-point road underdogs, and now they should cover as 28.5-point home dogs to Alabama.  Tennessee has never been this big of a home underdog at least dating back to 1980.  There’s some value here with the Vols.  Take Tennessee. 

6* Conference USA Play of the Day on UTEP +23.5 

The Key: I like the spot for this improving UTEP squad Saturday.  They are coming off a bye and have to be gleaming with confidence after a 24-27 home loss to North Texas as 24.5-point dogs last time out.  North Texas is one of the best teams in Conference USA, so that was an impressive performance.  They only lost by 24 at Tennessee as 33.5-point dogs earlier this season, and have only lost by more than 24 points once this season.  But because they are 0-6 they aren’t getting any respect from oddsmakers.  LA Tech is getting too much respect for its 31-3 win at UTSA last week.  That followed up a 7-28 home loss to UAB.  The last 3 meetings in this series were decided by 21, 21 and 2 points, and the Miners were massive underdogs in all 3 games.  They are once again massive dogs here and showing good value.  Take UTEP. 

6* Oklahoma/TCU Big 12 *CA$H COW* on TCU +8 

The Key: TCU is going to be in a sour mood with Oklahoma coming to town Saturday.  They have lost 3 of their last 4 games, but the losses to Ohio State and Texas weren’t bad.  Their loss to Texas Tech was.  And Gary Patterson should have his team ready to go this week to make amends.  The Horned Frogs also want revenge from 2 losses to the Sooners last year, including in the Big 12 title game.  Oklahoma is just 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games and has been an overvalued commodity.  Patterson is 10-2 ATS after having lost 3 of their last 4 games as the coach of TCU.  Lincoln Riley is 0-6 ATS when the total is between 56.5 and 63 as the coach of Oklahoma.  Take TCU. 

7* SEC Game of the Week on Ole Miss +4 

The Key: I think Auburn has thrown in the towel already.  The Tigers had SEC title aspirations coming into the season, but now they’ve lost 3 games already.  And they just aren’t that good.  They are coming off an ugly 24-30 home loss to Tennessee as 15.5-point favorites.  And I question their motivation now with 3 losses.  Ole Miss is feeling good with a 5-2 start with its only losses coming to LSU and Alabama, two of the best teams in the country.  They got a big 37-33 comeback road win at Arkansas last week.  The Tigers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Ole Miss. 

7* Colorado State/Boise State NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Colorado State +24 

The Key: Colorado State has played Boise State tough the last 2 years.  The Rams only lost by 5 as 28-point road underdogs in 2016 . And last year they lost by 7 in overtime as 6.5-point home dogs.  They led by 14 late in that game and it took a miracle for Boise State to win.  So the Rams will be out for revenge for sure.  And they are catching a whopping 24 points in this year’s meeting.  I just think Boise State is overrated right now.  They lost to San Diego State outright and barely beat Nevada in their last two games.  The Broncos are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 home games.  The Rams are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Take Colorado State. 

6* Stanford/ASU Pac-12 *CA$H COW* on Stanford -2.5 

The Key: Stanford really needed the bye week to get Bryce Love healthy and recover from a grueling 3-week stretch.  They played Oregon, Notre Dame and Utah in consecutive weeks coming into their bye.  They looked worn down by the time they lost 21-40 to Utah.  Now they can regroup, and I trust David Shaw as one of the best head coaches in the country to get his team ready to go this week against Arizona State.  The Sun Devils have not fared well when they’ve stepped up in class this year, losing to San Diego State, Washington and Colorado.  They did beat Michigan State 16-13, but scored 10 unanswered points in the 4th quarter and were fortunate to win that contest.  The Cardinal are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games following a loss.  The Cardinal are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 against good offensive teams that average 5.9 or more yards per play.  Take Stanford.