Sports Picks & Predictions

6* ACC Saturday Afternoon *CA$H COW* on Georgia Tech -3

The Key: After going 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall, the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets are hungry for a victory.  They have played a brutal schedule during this stretch with 3 road games against Notre Dame, Duke and Clemson.  But now they return home where they are outscoring opponents by 37.0 points per game this season. Head coach Paul Johnson has said that his players need to get back to the basics, and that means a tough week of practice that will have the Yellow Jackets firing on all cylinders Saturday against Pittsburgh.  The Panthers aren't used to preparing for the triple-option, and that will be an advantage to the Yellow Jackets in this one.  Georgia Tech is 22-10 ATS in its last 32 games following a loss by 17 points or more.  The Panthers are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games following a S.U. win.  The Yellow Jackets are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games.  Take Georgia Tech.

6* NCAAF Non-Conference Game of the Week on Ole Miss -10.5

The Key: Ole Miss is by far the superior team in this matchup with Memphis.  The Rebels have no margin for error if they want to accomplish their ultimate goal, which is making the 4-team playoff.  They have the talent to do it and actually come in undervalued in this game because of their loss to Florida a few weeks back.  But make no mistake, this is still one of the best teams in the country, and they proved that with their 43-37 win at Alabama.  Memphis is overvalued due to its 5-0 start against an extremely easy schedule.  The Tigers have put up huge offensive numbers, but now they run into an Ole Miss defense that is only allowing 19.7 points per game.  But the key will be the Ole Miss' offense scoring almost every time it touches the ball.  The Rebels are averaging 40.6 points per game this season.  They'll be up against a soft Memphis defense that allows 26.8 points and 438.4 yards per game.  Ole Miss beat Memphis 24-3 last year and outgained the Tigers by 322 yards, limiting them to only 104 yards of offense.  The Rebels are 24-7-1 ATS in their last 32 non-conference games, and 7-0 ATS off a game where they committed 3 or more turnovers.  Take Ole Miss.

7* ACC GAME OF THE YEAR on Louisville +7

The Key: The Louisville Cardinals have really impressed me this season.  They have been in every game they've played, but they are just 2-3 on the year.  They lost to Auburn 24-31, Houston 31-34, and Clemson 17-20 to open the season.  But they have rebounded nicely since, beating Sanford 45-3 at home before going on the road and topping NC State 20-13.  So, they haven't lost a game yet this season by more than a touchdown.  That's key because they are catching a TD against Florida State, which may be the most overrated team in the country.  FSU has escaped with wins each of the last three weeks 14-0 over Boston College, 24-16 at Wake Forest, and 29-24 at home against Miami.  I believe Louisville is better than all three of those teams.  The Cardinals are off their bye week, so they will have had two weeks to rest and prepare for the Seminoles.  They have had this game circled all offseason fter blowing a 21-7 halftime lead to FSU last year to lost 31-42.  Louisville is 20-5 ATS in its last 25 road games with a total set of 42.5 to 49 points.  The Cardinals are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games off a conference game.  The Cardinals are 26-8 ATS in their last 34 road games.  The Seminoles are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games.  Take Louisville.

7* Cincinnati/BYU Non-Conference Game of the Week on Cincinnati +7

The Key: Statistically, the Cincinnati Bearcats are one of the best teams in the country.  They outgain their opponents by an average of 190 yards per game thanks to an offense that is putting up 587.2 yards per game.  I look for the Bearcats to have their way with a fatigued BYU defense that is working on a short week of rest after playing on Saturday.  Cincinnati hasn't played since October 1 and will be fresh and ready to go for this one.  This is a huge scheduling advantage for the Bearcats, and one that should have them likely winning this game outright.  Cincinnati is 6-0-1 ATS in its last 7 games following an ATS win.  BYU is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 home games vs. teams who force one or fewer turnovers per game.  The Bearcats are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after gaining 475 or more yards in their previous game.  The Cougars are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 home games off a 2-game home stand.  Take Cincinnati.

6* Auburn/Kentucky SEC *CA$H COW* on Auburn PK

The Key: When you look at the talent rankings, it's clear that Auburn is a vastly superior team than Kentucky.  While the Tigers haven't lived up to their potential yet, I believe they will tonight as they have had nearly two weeks to prepare for this game.  I expect Gus Malzahn and Will Muschamp to have this team prepared better than they have been for any game yet this season.  They now take on a Kentucky team that is very fortunate to be 4-1 as all five of its games were decided by a TD or less.  That includes ugly home wins over non-conference opponents in Eastern Kentucky 34-27 (OT) and Louisiana-Lafayette 40-33.  The Wildcats were actually outgained in those two games combined, which is awful.  Auburn is 8-0 in its last 8 trips to Kentucky.  The Wildcats are 1-10 straight up in their last 11 vs. SEC West opponents.  Auburn will be the best team that the Wildcats have faced this season.  Take Auburn.

7* Arkansas State/South Alabama Sun Belt *HEAVY HITTER* on Arkansas State -3.5

The Key: Arkansas State is just 2-3 this season, but the three losses have come to USC, Missouri and Toledo, and all three of those teams have been ranked in the Top 25 this year.  The Red Wolves even had Missouri on the ropes in a 27-20 home loss.  I really like this team because they have even played three games without their best player in QB Fredi Knighten, and they returned 15 starters from last year to make yet another run at a Sun Belt title.  Knighten returns from his 3-game absence tonight against South Alabama.  The Red Wolves are 3-0 all-time against South Alabama, including a 45-10 home win last year.  Knighten led the way with two passing touchdowns and a rushing touchdown.  The Red Wolves outgained the Jaguars 400-201 for the game.  This is a very inexperienced South Alabama team that returned only 5 starters from last year.  But a surprising 3-2 start has the Jaguars overvalued.  Their two losses weren't even close as they lost at Nebraska 9-48 and at home to NC State 13-63.  There's no doubt Arkansas State would have given those teams a better fight.  Arkansas State is rushing for 193 yards per game, which is bad news for a South Alabama defense giving up 205 rushing yards per game and 5.1 per carry.  The Jaguars are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following a win.  Take Arkansas State.

6* NCAAF Saturday Night *BLOWOUT* on Michigan State -13

The Key: Michigan State is 0-5 against the spread in its five games this season and is actually undervalued now as a result.  The Spartans actually dropped from No. 2 in the rankings down to No. 4 even after winning last week to improve to 5-0 on the season.  They held a 21-point lead over Purdue at half but had to hang on to win 24-21.  You can bet that head coach Mark Dantonio is going to preach finishing this week, and I look for the Spartans to put forth their best second-half effort of the season to put away a very poor Rutgers team.  Rutgers' two wins this season have come against Norfolk State and Kansas, and its 13-point win over the Jayhawks at home was far from impressive.  Kansas is easily the worst Power 5 team in the nation, and Rutgers is close to being the worst.  It lost at home to Washington State 34-37, which is the same WSU team that lost to an FCS opponent.  It also lost 3-28 at Penn State in its hardest game this season.  If the Scarlet Knights couldn't hang with the Nittany Lions, they stand little chance of keeping this one close against by far the best team they have played yet.  The Spartans are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better.  Michigan State is 18-7-1 ATS in its last 26 road games, including 8-1 ATS in its last 9 conference road games.  This line has been bet down from 16.5 to 13, so there's clearly some value here.  After all, the Spartans beat Rutgers 45-3 at home last year.  Take Michigan State.

6* Arkansas/Alabama SEC West *CA$H COW* on Arkansas +17

The Key: The Arkansas Razorbacks lost 14-13 last year to Alabama thanks to a missed extra point.  They will be in revenge mode after really outplaying the Crimson Tide in that game last year, outgaining them 335-227.  Arkansas has played its best two games the past two weeks.  It lost in overtime 21-28 to a very good Texas A&M team hile outgaining the Aggies by 34 points.  The Razorbacks then beat Tennessee 24-20 on the road last week while outgaining the Vols by 142 yards.  This is a letdown spot for Alabama off its big win over Georgia last week in a game that was closer than the 38-10 margin indicated.  The Crimson Tide only outgained the Bulldogs by 80 yards in that contest.  Alabama is 0-9 ATS in its last 9 home games vs. poor passing defenses that surrender 250 or more yards per game.  Take Arkansas.

6* SEC Game of the Week on South Carolina +20

The Key: The LSU Tigers struggle to blow out teams due to the style of football the play.  They are a ball control team that runs it the majority of the time, which eats up clock and makes it harder to win by big margins.  They failed to cover as 23-point favorites in a 34-24 win at Syracuse two weeks ago.  They didn't even come close to covering as 44.5-point home favorites against Eastern Michigan in a 44-22 win last week.  If they can only beat Syracuse by 10 and EMU by 22, then they don't have much of a chance to cover this 20-point spread against South Carolina, which is probably the second-best team they have played this year.  SC is way undervalued right now due to going 2-3 SU & 2-3 ATS up to this point and 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in SEC play.  The Gamecocks are simply catching too many points here.  Their defense is vastly improved the last two weeks as they held UCF to just 230 total yards and Missouri to 299 total yards.  LSU is 5-18 ATS in its last 23 games as a home favorite of 14.5 to 21 points.  It is only winning by 11.0 points per game in this spot.  The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.  Take South Carolina.

7* Big Ten GAME OF THE YEAR on Northwestern +10

The Key: Northwestern is 5-0 with impressive wins over Stanford, Duke and Minnesota by a combined score of 62-16.  Those are three really good opponents, and the Wildcats have made easy work of them.  But they still aren't getting any love here from the books as they are double-digits dogs to the Wolverines.  The Wildcats have lost the last 3 meetings to Michigan all by a single possession.  They lost in 2012 and 2013 in overtime and by a final of 10-9 last year.  It's safe to say that they are going to want revenge pretty badly in this one.  "Thinking back, those losses definitely stick out to me over the years so I definitely want to get one this week," senior left guard Matt Frazier said. Plays on road underdogs after allowing 9 points or less last game against an opponent that allowed 3 points or less in the first half of last game are 33-9 ATS over the last 5 years.  The Wolverines are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.  The underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings.  Take Northwestern.

6* MAC Game of the Week on Central Michigan +6

The Key: Central Michigan should not be an underdog to Western Michigan in this game.  CMU is the better team this year, and oddsmakers are putting too much stock into the fact that WMU has a bye coming in.  It's not going to matter.  Central Michigan's three losses this year have come against three very good teams in Oklahoma State (13-24), Syracuse (27-30, OT) and Michigan State (10-30).  The Chippewas were only outgained by 77 yards by the Cowboys, they outgained Syracuse by 194 yards, and they also outgained Michigan State by 16 yards.  They have stood toe-to-toe with some of the best teams in the country.  Western Michigan has been outgained in 3 of its 4 games this season.  It was outgained by 173 yards by Ohio State, 168 yards by Georgia Southern, and 69 yards by MIchigan State.  Cooper Rush is one of the most underrated QB's in the country, completing 67% of his passes for 1,450 yards with 8 touchdowns and 4 picks for the Chippewas.  Home-field advantage has meant very little in this series as the road team has won each of the last 3 meetings.  The Chippewas will be looking to avenge their 20-32 home loss to the Broncos last year.  CMU is 6-0 ATS vs. terrible defensive teams that allow 6.25 or more yards per play the last 3 years.  WMU is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 home games vs. excellent passing teams who average 275 or more yards per game.  Take Central Michigan.

7* NC State/VA Tech ESPN Friday Night Lights on Virginia Tech -2

The Key: VA Tech QB Michael Brewers returns from a shoulder injury that has sidelined him since the Ohio State game.  That's going to give this offense a huge boost.  The Hokies were on their way to upsetting Ohio State before Brewer got hurt, and they have been in a tailspin ever since.  But with him back, this offense is going to be much better tonight against NC State, which lost its first game of the season at home to Louisville last week after playing a bunch of cupcakes coming in.  The Hokies have one of the best defenses in the nation, too.  The Hokies are 18-4 ATS (+13.6 Units) after gaining 3.75 or less yards/play in their previous game since 1992.  Take Virginia Tech.

6* Washington/USC Pac-12 *PUNISHER* on USC -16.5

The Key: Washington is in rebuilding mode under Chris Petersen this season.  He returned just 9 starts and lost a ton of talent to the NFL.  In their two toughest games this year, the Huskies were thoroughly outplayed by Boise State and California.  They were outgained by Boise State by 158 yards and outgained by Cal by 222 yards.  Their offense only put up 179 yards on Boise State and 259 on California.  Now they will be up against the best team they have faced yet in USC.  Their offense won't be able to score enough points to keep up.  USC averages 47 points, 532 yards and 8.1 yards per play this season.  It beat down Arizona State 42-14 on the road last time out, and this Washington team isn't nearly as good as ASU.  USC is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 home games following a win by 28 or more points on the road.  Take USC.

6* Clemson/Notre Dame ABC Saturday Night *BAILOUT* on Clemson -1.5

The Key: The Clemson Tigers are one of the best teams in college football.  With all of their injuries, the Notre Dame Fighting Irish are no longer one of the best teams in the land.  That will show Saturday as Clemson gets it done and continues its success at home.  After all, the Tigers are 28-2 at home over the past 5 seasons.  This is a great spot for Clemson too because it last played on September 17 and will have had 15 days of rest in between games.  Notre Dame is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 road games after gaining 7.25 or more yards per play in its last game.  The Fighting Irish are 6-22 ATS in their last 28 games against elite defenses that give up 285 or fewer yards per game.  The Tigers are only allowing 12.3 points and 261.0 yards per game this year.  Take Clemson.

6* Miss State/Texas A&M SEC West *CA$H COW* on Texas A&M -5

The Key: The Texas A&M Aggies are a team on the rise with 16 starters back from last year.  The Mississippi State Bulldogs are on the decline with only 7 starts back this season.  Texas A&M has already beaten two very good teams in Arizona State (38-17) and Arkansas (28-21) during its 4-0 start.  Both of those games were at neutral sites, and now the Aggies get to play inside a hostile atmosphere at Kyle Field.  Mississippi State only managed 19 points against LSU and 17 against Auburn.  Texas A&M has its best defense since Kevin Sumlin arrived here and will limit the Bulldogs as well.  But the Aggies have a distinct advantage on offense as they are putting up 41.5 PPG thus far.  Plays on any team after gaining 6.25 or more yards per play in 3 straight games, who return 8-plus offensive starters and their QB against teams returning 5 or less defensive starters are 44-15 ATS over the last 10 years.  Sumlin is 9-1 ATS in home games after a game where his team committed zero turnovers in all games he has coached.  Sumlin is 8-0 ATS in home games vs. poor passing defenses that allow a 62% or more completions.  Take Texas A&M.

6* NCAAF Non-Conference Game of the Week on Vanderbilt +3

The Key: This is SEC vs. Conference USA and really an easy choice here with getting Vanderbilt as an underdog.  Yes, Vanderbilt already lost to once C-USA team in Western Kentucky, but they gave that game away and should have won.  They lost 12-14 to WKU despite outgaining the Hilltoppers by 147 yards and limiting their high-powered offense to only 12 points and 247 total yards.  I was really impressed with Vanderbilt's efforts against Georgia and Ole Miss, too.  They were only outgained by 22 yards by Georgia in their 14-31 loss.  They only lost to le Miss 16-27 despite being 27-point underdogs.  And as you know, many consider Ole Miss to be the best team in the country after they went on the road and beat Alabama.  Vanderbilt is 29-11 ATS in its last 40 road games after playing its last game on the road.  The Commodores are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 road games with a total set between 45.5 and 49 points.  The Commodores are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. C-USA opponents and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games.  The Blue Raiders are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.  Take Vanderbilt.

7* ACC Game of the Month on Boston College +7

The Key: The Duke Blue Devils are coming off a massive win over the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets last week by a final of 34-20.  But they were very fortunate to win that game because they only gained 279 yards of total offense and were outgained by the Yellow Jackets by 37 yards.  They are now in a letdown spot this week against Boston College.  This is a very good Boston College team and perhaps one of the most underrated in the country.  After wins over Howard and Maine by a combined 100-3 score, the Eagles have really shown what they could do against great competition the last two weeks.  They were only outgained by 22 yards in a 0-14 loss to Florida State.  They outgained Northern Illinois by 173 yards in a 17-14 home win that was a bigger blowout than the score showed.  That's also the same NIU team that only lost to Ohio State 20-13.  Boston College has the type of defense that will keep it in a lot of games.  The Eagles are giving up an absurd 7.7 points and 118.0 yards per game this season.  Opponents are only averaging 2.3 yards per play against this stingy bunch, which may be the best in the country.  The Eagles are 38-20 ATS in their last 58 when playing against a team with a winning percentage of 75% or better.  The Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Steve Addazio is 9-2 ATS off 1 or more consecutive ATS losses as the coach of BC.  Take Boston College.

6* Big Ten Game of the Week on Iowa +6

The Key: The Iowa Hawkeyes are the best team in the Big Ten West division from what I've seen this year.  It has a good road win over Iowa State by 14 and a solid home win over Pittsburgh by a field goal.  It has thoroughly dominated its two lesser opponents, outgaining Illinois State by 200 yards in its 31-14 home win, and crushing North Texas 62-16.  It is outgaining the opposition by an average of 144.7 yards per game this year.  Wisconsin has only played one good team in Alabama, and it was thoroughly dominated 17-35 in a bigger blowout than even that final score showed.  Its other three wins have come against Miami Ohio, Troy and Hawaii, and it only scored 28 points against the latter two teams.  Iowa wants revenge from a 24-26 home loss to Wisconsin last year.  Iowa is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 games after scoring 50 or more points in its previous game.  The Hawkeyes are 40-16 ATS versus good rushing teams that average 4.75 or more yards per carry since 1992.  Iowa is only giving up 84 rushing yards per game and 2.6 per carry.  Wisconsin is without top running back Corey Clement for 4-6 weeks.  The Hawkeyes are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Iowa is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 road games overall.  Take Iowa.