Sports Picks & Predictions

6* Colorado/USC Pac-12 *CA$H COW* on USC -5.5

The Key: Colorado is getting a lot of love from oddsmakers right now due to a 5-0 ATS start.  But the Buffaloes' luck is about to run out.  USC finally played up to its potential last week in a 41-20 home win over Arizona State.  The Trojans led this game 41-6 entering the 4th quarter before taking their foot off the gas.  Since starting freshman QB Sam Darnold, the offense has really taken off the last two weeks against USC and Utah.  I believe Darnold and company continue to roll and easily cover this small number at home against Colorado.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings in this series, including a 56-28 and 50-6 wins by USC.  The Trojans have won 7 straight in this series, including 5 of the last 6 by 18 points or more.  Take USC.

7* American Athletic GAME OF THE YEAR on East Carolina +16

The Key: The East Carolina Pirates have been impressive this season.  The beat NC State 33-30 at home, lost at South Carolina 15-20 while outgaining the Gamecocks by 207 yards, lost 17-54 at VA Tech and was only outgained by 19 yards, and lost to UCF 29-47 despite outgaining the Knights by 148 yards.  Their stats have been tremendous considering the competition faced.  They are averaging 523 yards on offense and giving up 393 on defense, outgaining teams by 130 yards per game.  Now they catch South Florida in a letdown spot off a big road win at Cincinnati last week.  The Bulls are simply getting to much respect from oddsmakers here.  The Pirates are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a double-digit loss at home.  The Bulls are 3-11-1 ATS in their last 15 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The road team has won both meetings the last 2 years and 4 of the last 6 outright despite being underdogs for the majority of the meetings.  Take East Carolina.

7* Clemson/BC ESPN Friday Night Lights on Boston College +17

The Key: Boston College has the best defense in the country this season, giving up just 202 yards per game and 3.6 yards per play.  That stop unit will keep the Eagles competitive here against Clemson, which is in a massive letdown spot after the win over Louisville on Saturday.  I like Eagles QB Patrick Towles, who has thrown for 806 yards with a 6-to-3 TD/INT ratio.  I think he can make enough plays to keep the Eagles within striking distance.  Boston College is 3-0 ATS in the last 3 meetings and hasn't lost by more than 17 to Clemson in any of the last 4 meetings.  The underdog is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  Take Boston College.

6* Temple/Memphis AAC *CA$H COW* on Temple +10

The Key: The Memphis Tigers are coming off their biggest game of the season in a 28-48 loss to Ole Miss on the road.  Now they're on a short week and it will be hard for them to come back from that.  Temple beat SMU 45-20 last week and will have no problem coming back on a short week after that blowout win.  This comes down to me to last year's game, which saw Temple dominate Memphis 31-12 while outgaining the Tigers by 229 yards.  Their defense only gave up 232 yards to the Tigers, and that stop unit is dominant once again this season in allowing only 319 yards per game on average.  Memphis is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games as a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 points.  Take Temple.

7* Sun Belt Total of the Week on Georgia Southern/Arkansas State OVER 54

The Key: Georgia Southern boasts an offense that puts up 33.0 points and 458 yards per game on the season.  The Eagles are averaging 318 rushing yards per game, making this a great matchup for them.  Arkansas State is giving up 36.0 points per game and 239 rushing yards per contest.  This Arkansas State offense started slow, but it has been much better the past two games with Justice Hansen at quarterback.  He threw for 287 yards against Utah State and 424 against Central Arkansas.  He was actually one of the top-rated recruits coming out of high school when he signed with Oklahoma before transferring to junior college last year and then here.  Arkansas State is 8-0 OVER vs. teams who average 4.75 or more rushing yards per attempts over the last 3 seasons.  The Red Wolves are 8-0 OVER against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.  The OVER is 22-4 in Red Wolves last 26 conference games.  Take the OVER.

7* Pac-12 Game of the Year on Washington State +2.5

The Key: The Washington Cougars won nine games last year and contended for a Pac-12 title.  They brought back a ton of talent from that team, including QB Luke Faulk and 8 starters on offense.  So the 1-2 start is shocking, but it also has the Cougars flying under the radar.  They lost their two games by a combined 6 points, including a 3-point loss at Boise State in a game they arguably outplayed the Broncos.  They gained 520 yards against Boise State and held them to 420 yards.  Oregon is 2-2 and has one of its worst teams in years, yet it is a favorite here.  The Ducks have given up at least 26 points in every game and will have their hands full with Faulk.  Oregon does have another good offense that loves to run the ball, but Washington State counters that with a defense that is giving up only 103 rushing yards per game and 3.8 per carry.  WSU is coming off a bye week, and that's a nice advantage here to prepare for the Ducks, who they are 1-1 against the last two years in games that were both decided by a TD.  Betting against teams who outscore opponents by 7 or more points per game who have allowed 31 points or more in 2 straight games are 27-3 ATS over the last 5 years.  We'll bet against the Ducks here, who fit that criteria.  Take Washington State.

6* NCAAF Saturday *UPSET SPECIAL* on Charlotte +9

The Key: Charlotte is just 1-3 and getting no love from oddsmakers.  But all three losses came in the role of underdogs, including two times where they were big road dogs at Louisville (38.5) and Temple (25.5).  But now they have a winnable game here against Old Dominion, whose two wins have come at home against UTSA and Hampton.  The Monarchs were blown out on the road at Appalachian State by 24 and NC State by 27, failing to cover the spread both times.  Charlotte wants revenge from a 34-37 road loss at Old Dominion as 4.5-point dogs last year.  The 49ers outgained the Monarchs 536-482 in that contest.  I think they can pull off the upset at home this time around, and getting 8.5 points here is way too much.  Old Dominion is 0-7 ATS in October games over the last 3 seasons.  The Monarchs are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games.  Take Charlotte.

6* Oklahoma/TCU Big 12 *CA$H COW* on Oklahoma -3

The Key: Oklahoma comes in off a bye week following its bad loss to Ohio State at home.  The Sooners will be looking to get that sour taste out of their mouth with their Big 12 opener at TCU here.  TCU played last week and only led SMU 6-3 at halftime.  This TCU defense isn't very good and Baker Mayfield and company should score at will.  The Sooners have played Houston and Ohio State already, two playoff contenders, and they are still scoring 35.3 points per game while averaging 479 yards per game on the season.  TCU has played the much softer schedule and actually lost to Arkansas at home, which I don't believe is as good as Oklahoma.  The Sooners are one of the best teams to back following a loss as they are 25-11 ATS in their last 36 in this situation.  They get back on track in a big way Saturday.  Take Oklahoma.

7* Stanford/Washington ESPN Friday Night Lights on Washington -3

The Key: The Washington Huskies are ready to change the landscape of the Pac-12, which has gone through Stanford over the past few years.  And with one of the best home-field advantages in the country inside Husky Stadium for this Top 10 showdown, you can bet they are going to be feeding off of the energy.  But the bottom line is that the Huskies are actually the more talented team in this matchup.  They have the better defense, and certainly the more explosive offense as Stanford has been held back by its shaky QB play this season.  The Cardinal were lucky to beat UCLA last week on the road, but they won't be so fortunate this time around.  Take Washington.

6* UConn/Houston AAC *CA$H COW* on Houston -27

The Key: The Houston Cougars' only loss last season came on the road at UConn when Greg Ward Jr. got hurt.  They have that memory to motivated them this week and to blow the Huskies out of the building, which is precisely what I believe they'll do.  UConn doesn't have the offense to keep up in this one.  Houston is averaging 44.7 points per game this season.  Its defense has been awesome, giving up 10.5 points and 229 yards per game.  The Cougars are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring 42 or more points in their previous game.  The Huskies are 6-20-1 ATS in their last 27 road games.  UConn is 1-13 ATS in its last 14 games after playing a home game.  Take Houston.

7* Big 12 Game of the Month on Baylor -7.5

The Key: Everyone is down on Baylor because they haven't played anyone.  But they've taken care of business like they're supposed to with all three of their wins coming by 27 points or more.  The fact that they're 0-3 ATS gives us some line value here.  Last year, Baylor beat Oklahoma State 45-35 on the road while racking up 700 yards of total offense and outgaining the Cowboys by 259 yards.  Now they get the Cowboys at home, where they are 17-3 in their last 20 Big 12 home games.  I'm not impressed with Oklahoma State with a loss to Central Michigan and a fortunate win against Pitt, both of which came at home.  The Cowboys are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog of 7.5 to 10 points.  Take Baylor.

6* Florida/Tennessee SEC *CA$H COW* on Tennessee -5

The Key: Florida's 11-game winning streak against Tennessee comes to an end today.  The Vols will simply want this one more.  They led Florida 27-14 on the road last year before giving up 2 touchdowns in the final minutes and losing 28-27.  Now they get the Gators at home.  They will be amped up for this game, just as they were when they beat a very good Virginia Tech team 45-24 in Bristol a few weeks back.  The Vols have as much talent as anyone in the country.  The Gators will be starting backup QB Austin Appleby, and I don't expect him to be able to handle this environment very well.  The Vols are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Tennessee.

6* Wisconsin/Michigan State Big Ten *CA$H COW* on Michigan State -3.5

The Key: Michigan State continues to lack respect from oddsmakers as only 3.5-point home favorites here against Wisconsin.  The Spartans racked up 501 total yards in a 36-28 win at Notre Dame last week, outgaining the Fighting Irish by 100 yards.  They actually led that game 36-7 and it only became closer in garbage time.  Wisconsin barely survived in a 23-17 win over Georgia State last week after actually trailing 17-13 in the fourth quarter.  Home-field advantage has been huge between these teams.  The home team is 8-1 straight up in the last 9 meetings.  Mark Dantonio is 9-1 ATS versus excellent rushing defenses who allow 90 or fewer rushing yards per game as the coach of Michigan State.  Take Michigan State.

7* NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Utah -2.5

The Key: The Utah Utes are 8-1 at home dating back to last season.  Their stadium, Rice-Eccles, is one of the most underrated venues in all of college football.  The Ute faithful will be out in full force tonight in Salt Lake City with the USC Trojans coming to town.  The Trojans couldn't have looked worse to this point, and now they are starting a freshman QB in Sam Darnold.  Darnold will be up against a Utah team that had 10 sacks last week and boasts one of the best defenses in the nation.  Look for the Utes to play a clean game here offensively, while the Trojans and Darnold make mistakes that will be the difference in this game.  The Trojans are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 road games.  Take Utah.

6* Clemson/Georgia Tech *TOTAL* Annihilator on UNDER 58

The Key: I look for a defensive battle tonight between Clemson and Georgia Tech.  These have been two of the best defenses in the country in the early going.  Clemson is giving up 12.3 points and 250 yards per game, while Georgia Tech is allowing 10.3 points and 316 yards per game.  Georgia Tech runs a triple-option offense that will keep the clock moving with the ball on the ground for the majority of the game.  The Yellow Jackets will play at a slow pace to try and slow down the game and keep Deshaun Watson and company off the field.  The last two meetings at Georgia Tech have been low-scoring with 34 combined points in 2014 and 48 combined points in 2011.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Tigers last 5 September games.  The UNDER is 5-1-1 in Yellow Jackets last 7 games overall.  The UNDER is 4-1-1 in the last 6 meetings at Georgia Tech.  Take the UNDER.

6* Ohio State/Oklahoma Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Oklahoma +1

The Key: Oklahoma hasn't been a home underdog since 2000, where it upset then-No. 1 Nebraska.  The Sooners have an awesome home-field advantage, which is evident by the fact that Bob Stoops is 96-8 at home since coming to Norman.  The Buckeyes have a ton of talent, but this is one of the youngest teams in the country, and this is their first true road game against a veteran Oklahoma squad.  The Sooners are essentially playing for their season here as they cannot afford another loss if they want to get back to the four-team playoff.  Ohio State could recover from this loss.  The edge in motivation and experience makes me like the Sooners quite a bit here.  Take Oklahoma.

6* Michigan State/Notre Dame NBC National TV Annihilator on Notre Dame -7.5

The Key: Michigan State won't be able to produce enough offense to keep up with Notre Dame's high-octane attack in this one.  The Spartans only beat Furman 28-13 at home as 37.5-point favorites in their opener while managing only 361 total yards.  Replacing QB Connor Cook is a problem, and new QB Tyler O'Connor only threw for 190 yards against Furman, while the rushing attack averaged only 4.3 per carry.  Notre Dame puts up 47 points against Texas and 39 against Nevada in its first two games.  The Fighting Irish are 3-0 SU & 2-0-1 ATS in their last 3 meetings with the Spartans, winning by 4, 17 and 18 points.  Notre Dame is 6-0 ATS in home games in the first month of the season over the last 3 seasons. The Spartans are 0-6 ATS in their last six non-conference games.  Take Notre Dame.

7* Alabama/Ole Miss SEC *HEAVY HITTER* on Alabama -11

The Key: Alabama wants revenge from two straight losses to Ole Miss the past 2 seasons.  The Crimson Tide have been dominant in beating USC 52-6 and Western Kentucky 38-10, but they really want this game.  Ole Miss has been shaky with an 11-point loss to Florida State and only a 38-13 win over Wofford in which they allowed over 200 rushing yards.  Alabama gave away the game to Ole Miss last year by committing 5 turnovers.  Look for a more disciplined performance here.  Alabama is 4-0 in true road games against ranked teams since that loss to Ole Miss in 2014.  It has won these games by an average of 22 points per game.  Expect another blowout here.  Take Alabama.

7* NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Utah State -9

The Key: Utah State has one of the most underrated home-field advantages in the country.  The Aggies have gone 24-3 in their last 27 home games.  They are also 11-4 under Matt Wells coming off a loss.  That's key because they played USC and lost 7-45 last week on the road in a game that was closer than the final.  The Aggies were only outgained by 169 yards in that game.  Compare that to Arkansas State, which was outgained by 290 yards in a 10-31 home loss to Toledo and by 380 yards in a 14-51 road loss at Auburn, and it's easy to see Utah State is the better team.  The Aggies should roll here by double-digits.  Bets on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points in the first month of the season after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses against opponent that closed out last season with 4 or more wins in last 5 games are 38-12 ATS since 1992.  Take Utah State.

6* Houston/Cincinnati ESPN *CA$H COW* on Cincinnati +7

The Key: The Cincinnati Bearcats are one of the best-kept secrets in college football.  That's because they underachieved last season by going 7-6 despite outgaining teams by 129 yards per game.  They put up 538 yards per game offensively last year.  Now the Bearcats have opened 2-0 and are playing up to their potential this season, especially in their impressive 38-20 road win at Purdue last week.  Houston couldn't be more overvalued than it is right now with the No. 6 ranking in the country.  Cincinnati is no easy place to play as the Bearcats are 27-5 in their last 32 home games.  They want revenge from their 30-33 road loss to Houston last year in which they outgained they Cougars by 162 yards and dominated really.  Cincinnati is 13-2 ATS in its last 15 games after a game with a +4 turnover margin or better.  Take Cincinnati.

6* NCAAF Dog of the Week on Eastern Michigan +24

The Key: Any time Missouri is a big favorite I will look to fade them.  That's because the Tigers do not have any offense and can't cover big numbers because of it.  They scored a measly 13.6 points per game last season.  Their offense doesn't appear to be much better in 2016 thus far as they only managed 11 points in their 11-26 loss to West Virginia last week.  Eastern Michigan is improved this year and put together a convincing 61-14 rout of Mississippi Valley State in its opener.  The Eagles had 16 starters back this season and a lot more experience.  Missouri only had one win by more than 14 points last year, and that was a 31-point win over SE Missouri State as 41-point favorites in its opener.  The Tigers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games in September.  This is simply too big of a number.  Take Eastern Michigan.

7* NCAAF Non-Conference Game of the Week on SMU +32.5

The Key: SMU is a team on the rise in the second year under Chad Morris.  They put up 27.8 points per game last year after only averaging 11.1 in 2014.  Morris has a great offensive mind and the Mustangs will have the firepower to stay within 32 points of Baylor today.  Just last year the Mustangs only trailed the Bears 21-28 at half before getting blown out in the second half.  The Mustangs gained 572 yards in a 34-21 win at North Texas last week, outgaining the Mean Green by 178 yards.  Bets on dogs of 31.5 or more points after outgaining their last opponent by 175 yards or more are 26-6 ATS since 1992.  Take SMU.

6* Penn State/Pitt *CA$H COW* on Penn State +4

The Key: James Franklin has his best team in 3 years at Penn State with 14 starters back.  He has a new dual-threat QB in Trace McSorley, which will help improve the offense after a couple of down years on Christian Hackenberg's watch.  Pitt is a solid team, but it doesn't have a QB and only managed 261 total yards in a 28-7 win over Villanova last week.  Pitt doesn't have an offense in general, which makes it tough for it to cover spreads when favored.  The Panthers went 8-5 last season, but 8 of those games were decided by a TD or less.  Franklin is 8-0 ATS lifetime following a game where his team won but failed to cover the spread, as was the case last week in a 33-13 win over Kent State as 21-point favorites.  Take Penn State.

7* Louisville/Syracuse ESPN 2 Friday Night Lights on Syracuse +15

The Key: I like the direction Dino Babers has the Syracuse Orange headed.  In his first game they beat Colgate 33-7 at home and got their offense going with 554 yards.  Babers inherited 16 returning starters and more talent than most coaches could expect in their 1st year with a new team.  The Carrier Dome is no joke.  Syracuse is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 home games.  The Orange went 3-3 at home last year with a 10-point loss to LSU as 24-point dogs, a 3-point loss to Pitt as 9-point dogs, and a 10-point loss to Clemson as 30-point dogs.  If they could hang with those 3 teams at home, they certainly can hang with Louisville.  Take Syracuse.

7* Ole Miss/FSU ESPN Monday *HEAVY HITTER* on Florida State -6

The Key: Florida State has 17 starters back this season and is a legit national title contender.  Ole Miss only has 10 starters back this year and is primed for a down year after winning 10 games last year with Hugh Freeze's best team yet.  But Freeze has lost a lot of talent to the NFL and this is probably a rebuilding year.  Look for Florida State to roll in their opener, especially with home-field advantage with this game being played in their home state of Florida.  Take Florida State.

6* Notre Dame/Texas NCAAF *CA$H COW* on Texas +3.5

The Key: This is the year that Charlie Strong finally makes progress at Texas.  He has his players in place now entering Year 3.  This team is freakishly athletic and physical, which is a staple of a Texas team.  They will have a vastly improved offense thanks to new coordinator Sterling Gilbert, who comes over from Tulsa.  They have 15 starters back this year compared to just 9 returning starters for Notre Dame.  I think the Fighting Irish come into 2016 overvalued.  Plays on dogs of 3.5 to 10 points who have 6 or more returning starters than their opponent in the 1st month of the season are 58-24 ATS since 1992.  Take Texas.

6* Clemson/Auburn Saturday Night *BAILOUT* on Clemson -8

The Key: After going 14-1 last season with their only loss to Alabama by 5 points in the National Championship, the Clemson Tigers want more in 2016.  They are loaded once again, especially offensively with 8 starters back, including Heisman Trophy favorite Deshaun Watson.  Look for this offense to hang a big number on an Auburn defense that loses 4 of its top 5 tacklers from last year.  Auburn also has questions at QB once again and will struggle to move the ball on a Clemson defense that only gave up 21.7 points and 313 yards per game last year.  Auburn is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 home games, including 0-6 ATS at home last year.  Auburn is 1-8 ATS in its last 9 non-conference games.  Take Clemson.

6* Southern Miss/Kentucky *CA$H COW* on Kentucky -4.5

The Key: I'll gladly back the team from the SEC at home as only small 4.5-point favorites over the team from Conference USA in Southern Miss.  Kentucky has 14 starters back this year, including 9 on offense and will be explosive on that side of the ball.  Southern Miss comes into 2016 overvalued after making the C-USA Championship Game last year.  But now they lost head coach Todd Monken to the NFL, and there will be an adjustment period with new head coach Jay Hopson despite having 13 starters back.  USM has faced SEC opponents the last 3 years and hasn't been very competitive in any of them.  The Eagles lost by 21 to Arkansas in 2013, by 49 to Mississippi State in 2014, by 40 to Alabama in 2014, and by 18 to Mississippi State in 2015.  Take Kentucky.

7* NCAAF Game of the Week on Texas A&M -3

The Key: Kevin Sumlin has a loaded roster in 2016 with 13 starters back and the additions of Oklahoma transfers in QB Trevor Knight and RB Keith Ford.  The defense is one of the best in the SEC with 7 of the top 8 tacklers back from a unit that gave up 22.0 points per game last year.  The offense can only be improved with better QB play from Knight and his set of receivers that are as talented as anyone in the country.  UCLA has all kinds of questions surrounding the offense around QB Josh Rosen with only 4 starters back.  The Aggies have gone 11-4 ATS in their last 15 September games and are 26-2 in their last 28 home openers.  Take Texas A&M.

7* Kansas State/Stanford NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Stanford -12

The Key: The Stanford Cardinal are on another level than the Kansas State Wildcats.  The Cardinal are among the favorites to win the Pac-12 and to make the four-team playoff.  It's easy to see why considering they have Christian McCaffrey back and are dominant up front along the offensive and defensive lines.  I think that dominance up front will be the key in them making easy work of the Wildcats, who went just 7-6 last season and barely made a bowl game.  Kansas State lost to the two best teams it played last year badly with a 55-0 loss to Oklahoma and a 45-23 loss to Arkansas.  Stanford beat Iowa by 29 in the Rose Bowl, and a blowout can be expected here.  The Cardinal are 8-0 ATS as a favorite in the 10.5 to 21 range over the last 3 years.  Take Stanford.

7* South Carolina/Vanderbilt SEC *HEAVY HITTER* on Vanderbilt -4

The Key: Vanderbilt is in much better shape entering 2016 than South Carolina.  The Commodores have a 3rd-year head coach in Derek Mason, who brings back 15 starters this year.  He has 7 starters back on a defense that only gave up 21.0 points per game last year.  South Carolina is a rebuilding team under 1st-year head coach Will Muschamp.  The Gamecocks have the least amount of experience returning in the SEC and only 9 starters back.  This is a team that went 3-9 overall and 0-5 on the road last year.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.  Take Vanderbilt.

7* Cal/Hawaii NCAAF *TOTAL* Annihilator on OVER 64

The Key: Both Cal and Hawaii are going to be awful defensively this season.  Cal only brings back 4 starters on defense and loses each of its top 6 tacklers from last year.  Hawai'i gave up 35.6 points per game last season and has just 5 starters back on D while losing 7 of its top 9 tacklers.  But the Warriors should be better offensively with Nick Rolovich as their head coach.  He was the offensive coordinator at Nevada the past 4 seasons.  He has a 9 returning starters to work with on offense.  I know Cal loses Jared Goff, but they replace him with a good one in Texas Tech transfer Davis Webb, who ran the same system with the Red Raiders that Sonny Dykes runs.  Look for these 2 teams to put on a show in Australia offensively and to easily top this 64-point total.  Cal is 7-0 OVER in its last 7 road games vs. Mountain West opponents.  Take the OVER.

7* Alabama/Clemson NCAAF Championship *HEAVY HITTER* on Clemson +7

The Key: The Clemson Tigers are the No. 1 ranked team in the country and have been for most of the season.  Yet they are underdogs in both of their playoff games.  They made a statement with their 37-17 blowout of Oklahoma, and now they'll make another statement now that they've been listed as 7-point dogs to the Crimson Tide.  These players are fully aware that they are underdogs and used that as motivation against Oklahoma, and they'll do so again here.  Clemson is outgaining teams by 209.7 yards per game this season, which is the top mark in the country, and shows that it is the best team as well.  Alabama is outgaining teams by 167.1 yards per game, which is impressive, but still a far cry from Clemson.  Deshaun Watson is going to be the difference as he has rushed for 100-plus yards in three straight games coming in.  The Crimson Tide have not done well against dual-threat quarterbacks in the past, and they'll struggle to contain Watson here.  The Tigers have won each of their last four bowl games outright as underdogs, and they're 6-0 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games.  Take Clemson.

7* Penn State/Georgia TaxSlayer Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on Penn State +6.5

The Key: James Franklin is a proven winner in bowl games.  He has gone 3-0 straight up in bowl games dating back to his time at Vanderbilt.  He will certainly have his players ready to go after the Nittany Lions lost their final three games to close out the regular season.  I believe that finish has them undervalued heading into this TaxSlayer Bowl against Georgia.  The Bulldogs won each of their last 4 games to close out the season, which has them overvalued.  But they only beat Auburn by 7, Georgia Southern in overtime, and Georgia Tech by 6.  This Penn State team can play with Georgia in its current state.  The Bulldogs have a new head coach, a new offensive coordinator and a new defensive coordinator for this bowl game.  They will be at a severe coaching disadvantage as a result, and the Nittany Lions will simply want this game more.  Dogs of 3.5 to 10 points who are 1-3 ATS in their last 4 games who win 51% to 60% of their games on the season are 37-13 ATS over the last 10 years.  Take Penn State.

6* Ole Miss/Oklahoma State New Year's Day Bowl *BAILOUT* on Ole Miss -7

The Key: Ole Miss boasts the top offense in the SEC this season.  It is averaging 40.2 points and 515 yards per game on the season.  The Rebels should be able to score at will against an Oklahoma State defense that is one of the worst in the Big 12.  The Cowboys gave up an average of 44 points and 629 yards per game in their three games against TCU, Baylor and Oklahoma.  The Rebels scored 52 points against Arkansas, 43 against Alabama, 38 against LSU and 38 against Mississippi State.  Ole Miss is 6-0 ATS with a total set of 63.5 to 70 points over the last 3 years.  It is winning by 24.3 PPG in this spot.  Take Ole Miss.

7* Bowl GAME OF THE YEAR on Iowa +6

The Key: This is like a normal Big Ten game for the Hawkeyes.  The Stanford Cardinal play a physical brand of football, and the Hawkeyes match up well with physical teams that like to run the ball.  Kirk Ferentz 33-11 ATS versus teams who average at least 200 rushing yards per game in his career at Iowa.  The Hawkeyes defend the run very well this year as they give up 115 yards per game and 3.4 per carry.  The Hawkeyes also like to the run the ball themselves as they average 192 yards per game on the ground.  I think they'll find some holes against this Stanford defense that gives up 4.6 yards per carry.  Plus, starting RB Jordan Canzeri is healthy for this game after getting hurt in the loss to Michigan State, which is an added bonus.  Take Iowa.

7* Oklahoma/Clemson Orange Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on Oklahoma -3.5

The Key: The Oklahoma Sooners went 7-0 over their final seven games with six of those wins coming by double-digits.  The only exception was a 1-point win over TCU, but they were leading that game by 17 entering the fourth quarter.  They beat Oklahoma State by 35 on the road in their finale and are playing much better than Clemson coming in.  The Tigers have gone 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall with narrow wins over UNC, South Carolina, Syracuse and Florida State all by 10 points or less.  The Tigers got some bad news when deep threat Deon Cain was suspended for this game this week and sent home.  Cain is second on the team in receiving with 582 yards, five touchdowns and 17.1 yards per receptions.  That is a big loss.  The Sooners are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games off a win by 21 points or more.  Take Oklahoma.

7* Wisconsin/USC Holiday Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on USC -3.5

The Key: The Wisconsin Badgers went 9-3 this year, but they did not beat a team that finished with a winning record.  They played about as easy a schedule as you can have, and they lost to the three best teams they played in Alabama, Iowa and Northwestern.  They played the 70th most difficult schedule this year.  To compare, USC took on the 3rd most difficult schedule.  I just think this USC team is going to overwhelm the Badgers athletically.  The Trojans have a much more explosive offense, and their defense is good enough to limit a lackluster Wisconsin offense that only averages 3.8 yards per carry.  The Trojans lost in the Pac-12 Championship to Stanford.  That sets them up for a good situation here.  The Trojans are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a loss.  Take USC.

7* Baylor/UNC Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on North Carolina -2

The Key: Baylor doesn't even want to be playing in the Russell Athletic Bowl.  The Bears had higher hopes coming into the season, but after losses in their final two games to TCU and Texas, they were left out of the four-team playoff.  Injuries to this team have really hurt their cause.  They will be without the best receiver in the country in Corey Coleman and one of the best running backs in the Big 12 in Shock Linwood.  They are also playing a 3rd-string quarterback.  I just see no way they'll be able to hang with this improved UNC squad whose only losses have come by a TD or less to Clemson and South Carolina.  Baylor has committed at least 3 turnovers in three straight games, and it is 2-14 ATS in its next game after committing at least 3 turnovers in 3 straight.  Take North Carolina.

6* Nebraska/UCLA Foster Farms Bowl *BAILOUT* on Nebraska +7

The Key: Nebraska is the definition of a team that is better than its record.  The Huskers were fortunate to get to a bowl with their 5-7 record this year, but this easily could have been somewhere close to a 10-2 team.  Amazingly, all seven of its losses came by 10 points or less, including five by 5 points or fewer, and four by 3 points or less.  That means that the Huskers were in every game they played, and they will be in this bowl game against UCLA, which makes getting 7 points a very profitable proposition.  UCLA doesn't even want to be here.  It blew its chances of playing in the Pac-12 Championship with a 40-21 loss at USC in the season finale.  So, instead of potentially playing in the Rose Bowl, the Bruins have been sent to the Foster Farms Bowl.  They won't even show up for this game.  The Huskers will be out to prove that they were deserving of a bowl game and will want this one more.  Take Nebraska.

6* NCAAF *BLOWOUT* GAME OF THE DAY on Washington -8

The Key: Washington came through clutch down the stretch by winning its final two games just to get bowl eligible.  Now the Huskies want to taste victory in their bowl game after losing to Oklahoma State in their bowl last year.  This is a team that easily could have gone 5-0 in its last five games as it outgained five straight opponents, but found ways to lose to both to Utah and Arizona State.  But the other three games were mighty impressive as the Huskies rolled by 46 over Arizona, by 45 over Oregon State and by 35 over Washington State.  You can add another blowout victory here as they get to take on a Southern Miss team that is one of the worst opponents they've faced this year.  The Huskies faced the 21st-toughest schedule in the country, while the Golden Eagles went up against the 135th-toughest schedule.  It's going to be tough sledding for this Southern Miss offense as it will be tasked with going up against the best defense in the Pac-12 as the Huskies allow only 17.7 PPG and 350 YPG this season.  The Huskies are 8-1 ATS as a favorite in the 3.5 to 10-point range over the last 3 years.  Take Washington.

7* Georgia Southern/Bowling Green *TOTAL* Annihilator on OVER 63.5

The Key: Expect plenty of offensive fireworks in this GoDaddy Bowl between Georgia Southern and Bowling Green to push the final score over the 63.5-point total.  The Falcons have one of the best offenses in the country as they put up 43.4 points and 561.0 yards per game.  They push the tempo and don't let up for four quarters.  The Georgia Southern Eagles are an offensive juggernaut of their own as they put up 34.7 points and 417.4 yards per game this season.  The Eagles should find success on the ground against a Falcons defense that gives up 162 rushing yards per game.  The OVER is 4-0 in Falcons last 4 bowl games.  The OVER is 5-2 in Eagles last 7 non-conference games.  Take the OVER.

7* Toledo/Temple Bowl Game of the Week on Temple -2.5

The Key: Temple's Matt Rhule has taken this Owls team from 2-10 to 6-6 to 10-3 in his three seasons here.  He was a hot head coaching candidate for other schools, but he chose to stay here at Temple and signed a new 6-year contract after the season.  The Owls were snubbed from a bowl game last year, so they are certainly hungry to be playing in the postseason for the first time since 2011.  Matt Campbell did not stay at Toledo.  He haded for green pastures at Iowa State, and now the Rockets will have an interim coach.  I don't trust them any more without Campbell.  Besides, the Owls are the better team with a better defense that played a much tougher schedule than the Rockets.  Toledo did beat Iowa State in overtime and Arkansas by 4 this season, but it could not have gotten any luckier in doing so as it was outgained by nearly 400 yards combined by those two teams.  Toledo is 0-7 ATS after allowing at least 6.25 yards per play in its previous game over the last 3 years.  Take Temple.

6* BYU/Utah Las Vegas Bowl 2-0 Parlay SWEEPER on BYU +3/UNDER 51

The Key for BYU: Utah doesn't even want to be in this bowl game.  It was considered a playoff contender when it was 6-0 and ranked #3 in the country.  But instead of even making the Rose Bowl, the Utes have been sent to Las Vegas, which is among the worst bowl games for Pac-12 teams.  Throw in the fact that the Utes played their bowl game in Las Vegas last year, and they really don't want to be here.  The Cougars love the opportunity to play their former Mountain West rival in the Utes.  Players have been stating that they will be laying it all on the line for head coach Bronco Mendenhall, who decided to stay and coach this bowl game instead of leaving early for his new gig at Virginia.  Mendenhall will be going for his 100th win.  These teams have four common opponents this year.  BYU beat Fresno State 52-10 at home, lost 23-24 at UCLA, and beat Utah State 51-28 on the road.  Utah beat Fresno State 45-24 on the road, lost to UCLA 9-17 at home, and beat Utah State 24-14 at home.  The Cougars outscored those three teams by 74 points, while the Utes outscored them by only 23 points.  Utah is missing its best player in Devontae Booker, who has accounted for nearly 1,600 yards from scrimmage and 11 touchdowns in just 10 games.  Take BYU.

The Key for the UNDER: With this being a rivalry game, these teams are very familiar with one another.  That usually leads to a low-scoring affair.  Four of the last five meetings have seen 49 or fewer points with combined scores of 33, 45, 64, 33 and 49 (OT) points in the last five meetings, respectively.  Both teams are good defensively as the Cougars and Utes both allow just 21.8 points per game.  Utah is 14-4 UNDER in its last 18 vs. a team with a winning record.  Utah is 21-5 UNDER off a win by 7 pints or less against a conference foe.  BYU is 16-6 UNDER in its last 22 on a neutral field.  Take the UNDER.

6* BYU/Utah Las Vegas Bowl 2-0 Parlay SWEEPER on BYU +3/UNDER 51

The Key for BYU: Utah doesn't even want to be in this bowl game.  It was considered a playoff contender when it was 6-0 and ranked #3 in the country.  But instead of even making the Rose Bowl, the Utes have been sent to Las Vegas, which is among the worst bowl games for Pac-12 teams.  Throw in the fact that the Utes played their bowl game in Las Vegas last year, and they really don't want to be here.  The Cougars love the opportunity to play their former Mountain West rival in the Utes.  Players have been stating that they will be laying it all on the line for head coach Bronco Mendenhall, who decided to stay and coach this bowl game instead of leaving early for his new gig at Virginia.  Mendenhall will be going for his 100th win.  These teams have four common opponents this year.  BYU beat Fresno State 52-10 at home, lost 23-24 at UCLA, and beat Utah State 51-28 on the road.  Utah beat Fresno State 45-24 on the road, lost to UCLA 9-17 at home, and beat Utah State 24-14 at home.  The Cougars outscored those three teams by 74 points, while the Utes outscored them by only 23 points.  Utah is missing its best player in Devontae Booker, who has accounted for nearly 1,600 yards from scrimmage and 11 touchdowns in just 10 games.  Take BYU.

The Key for the UNDER: With this being a rivalry game, these teams are very familiar with one another.  That usually leads to a low-scoring affair.  Four of the last five meetings have seen 49 or fewer points with combined scores of 33, 45, 64, 33 and 49 (OT) points in the last five meetings, respectively.  Both teams are good defensively as the Cougars and Utes both allow just 21.8 points per game.  Utah is 14-4 UNDER in its last 18 vs. a team with a winning record.  Utah is 21-5 UNDER off a win by 7 pints or less against a conference foe.  BYU is 16-6 UNDER in its last 22 on a neutral field.  Take the UNDER.

7* Army/Navy NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Army +22

The Key: This is a ton of points for a rivalry game.  Records can pretty much be throwing out the window when these two teams get together.  We saw that last year with Army only losing 17-10 to Navy as 16.5-point underdogs.  That was the third time in the last four years that this game was decided by 7 points or less.  In fact, Army has only lost by more than 14 points to Navy once in the last 6 meetings.  Army is much better than its 2-9 record this season.  8 of its 9 losses have come by 17 points or less, including 7 by 10 points or fewer, and 6 by 7 points or less.  The Black Knights are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.  The Midshipmen are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.  Take Army.

7* Pac-12 GAME OF THE YEAR on USC +4.5

The Key: It's tough to beat a team twice in the same season.  That's especially a team as talented as this USC outfit. These players are motivated to win for their new head coach in Clay Helton, who was just given a 5-year contract to stay at USC.  They love this guy and have responded well to him.  He has led them to a 5-2 record with his only losses coming against Notre Dame and Oregon, which are two of the best teams in the country.  Cody Kessler is going to move the ball up and down the field on this Stanford defense, which is without two starting cornerbacks in Alijah Holder and Ronnie Harris.  Notre Dame did the same thing against Stanford last week, and the Cardinal were fortunate to escape with a 1-point victory on a last-second field goal.  With revenge in mind, the Trojans will be the more motivated team here.  The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.  Take USC.

6* Air Force/SDSU MWC Championship *TOTAL* Annihilator on UNDER 50

The Key: I fully expect a defensive battle between San Diego State and Air Force Saturday in the Mountain West Championship.  These are two teams who run the football.  Air Force averages 60 rushing attempts for 323 yards per game, and just 12 pass attempts per contest.  SDSU averages 48 rushing attempts and 235 yards per game, and just 19 passes per contest.  Both teams are great against the run, especially SDSU.  SDSU allows 95 rushing yards per game and 2.8 per carry, while Air Force gives up 139 rushing yards per game and 4.2 per carry.  The last three meetings in his series have gone under 50 combined points.  They combined for 44 last year, 47 in 2013 and 37 in 2012.  Expect that trend to continue this year.  SDSU is 11-1 to the UNDER as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons.  SDSU is 22-8 UNDER in its last 30 vs. poor passing teams that average 150 or fewer passing yards per game.  Take the UNDER. 

6* Southern Miss/WKU C-USA Championship *CA$H COW* on Southern Miss +7.5

The Key: Southern Miss has won six straight coming into this game with all six wins coming by 21 points or more.  They just keep getting better as the season goes on, and they just upset Louisiana Tech 58-24 as 5-point underdogs in their last game, covering the spread by 39 points.  The betting public has not caught on to this team yet, which is why they are once again showing great value as 7.5-point dogs.  WKU only beat LA Tech 41-38 at home earlier this season.  Common opponents show that Southern Miss is clearly the better team.  They are more balanced on offense, and they have the better defense.  The Golden Eagles have outgained each of their last eight opponents by at least 150 yards.  They are 10-2 ATS in all games this season, and 8-0 ATS off one or more straight overs the last two years.  Take Southern Miss.

6* Northern Illinois/Bowling Green ESPN 2 National TV Annihilator on Bowling Green -13

The Key: Northern Illinois freshman QB Tommy Fiedler was a 5th-string QB coming into the year.  But injuries to the other four quarterbacks ahead of him have forced him into action in the MAC Championship Game.  Needless to say, I don't expect it to work out very well for the Huskies tonight.  Bowling Green wants revenge from a 51-17 loss to NIU in the MAC Championship last year.  The Falcons have the team to get it as they've been the best team in the MAC this season.  They boast a high-powered offense that is putting up 47.0 points, 553.1 yards per game and 7.0 per play in MAC action, and an underrated defense that is allowing 21.9 points, 394.1 yards per game and 5.0 per play within the MAC.  The Falcons are 8-0 ATS off a win by 28 points or more over the last 3 seasons.  The Falcons are 8-0 ATS after gaining 6.25 or more yards per play in their previous game this season.  The Falcons are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.  Take this combined 23-0 angle backing the Falcons straight to the bank tonight.  Take Bowling Green.

6* Sun Belt Game of the Week on New Mexico State +17.5

The Key: The New Mexico State Aggies have quietly been a money-making machine down the stretch.  They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last 3 games overall.  They beat Idaho 55-48 as 7-point home dogs before going on the road and beating Texas State 31-21 as 16.5-point dogs and LA-Lafayette 37-34 as 14.5-point dogs.  Now they're going to be even more motivated to go up against the first-place team in the Sun Belt in the Arkansas State Red Wolves.  The Red Wolves are going to think that they can just show up and win this one, but that mindset is going to keep the Aggies in the game for four quarters.  NMSU certainly has the offense to make this interesting as it has put up 641, 527 and 498 total yards in its last three games overall.  Plays on home underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (NEW MEXICO ST) - in conference games, with 8 or more offensive starters including the QB returning are 153-86 ATS since 1992.  Plays against favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (ARKANSAS ST) - after going over the total by 21 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going over the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games are 28-8 ATS over the last 10 years.  Take New Mexico State.

7* NCAAF Rivalry GAME OF THE YEAR on South Carolina +19

The Key: The betting public wants nothing to do with South Carolina right now after it lost 22-23 at home to The Citadel last week.  But the Gamecocks didn't show up for that game.  They were highly competitive in their previous four games under their interim coach, which is a lot more significant to me than The Citadel result.  They won 19-10 over Vanderbilt in their first game without Steve Spurrier.  They went on to lose 28-35 at Texas A&M as 14-point dogs, 24-27 at Tennessee as 17-point dogs, and 14-24 at home to Florida as 7.5-point dogs only after the Gators tacked on a late TD to put the game away.  If they can hang with those four teams, they can certainly keep it close against Clemson at home.  South Carolina players met amongst themselves to get some things off their chest leading up to this game.  Shawn Elliott believes he sees a determined look in his players' eyes leading into this game.  ''You can kind of look at an individual and tell if they've got it or not,'' he said. ''I think everyone got it.''  This is South Carolina's National Championship as it won't be going to a bowl game.  Clemson continues to be overvalued due to its No. 1 national ranking, going 0-3 ATS in its last three games overall.  It won by 10 of FSU (-12.5), by 10 over Syracuse (-30) and by 20 over Wake Forest (-29) as a big favorite in each game.  It is too big of a favorite once again this week.  Clemson is 0-6 ATS in weeks 10 through 13 over the last two seasons.  The Gamecocks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. ACC.  The Tigers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs. a team with a losing record.  Clemson is 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings, and 0-4 ATS in its last 4 trips to South Carolina.  Take South Carolina.

6* ACC Game of the Week on Virginia Tech -3

The Key: Frank Beamer has stated this will be his last season.  Virginia Tech needs a victory at rival Virginia on Saturday in the Commonwealth Cup to send Beamer into retirement with a 23rd consecutive bowl game appearance. The Hokies fought valiantly for him in a 27-30 (OT) loss to North Carolina last week, and the Tar Heels are one of the best teams in the country.  The task is much easier against the 4-7 Cavaliers this week.  VA Tech is 11-0 in its last 11 meetings with Virginia with all 11 victories coming by 3 points or more.  VA Tech has held Virginia to 21 or fewer points in all 11 games, including 14 or less in 9 of those.  The Hokies are 27-7 ATS in their last 34 games as a road favorite of 7 points or less.  Mike London is 3-14 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 as the coach of Virginia.  Take Virginia Tech.

6* Oregon State/Oregon Civil War Rivalry Play on Oregon State +36

The Key: The Oregon Ducks made a valiant effort to try and win the Pac-12 North for a second consecutive season.  They won each of their last five games, which includes victories over both Stanford and USC in their last two games.  But they still needed Stanford to lose to Cal last week, and that didn't happen, which means Oregon will not be going to the Pac-12 Championship.  That is a huge emotional letdown for the Ducks right now, and one that is getting overlooked here with this massive 36-point spread.  Plus, records haven't really mattered in the Civil War as the Beavers have pulled off some huge upsets.  Obviously, the betting public wants nothing to do with Oregon State, which has gone 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games overall.  But with that poor ATS record comes some serious line value here as 36-point dogs.  The Beavers have only been dogs of more than 21 points once this season.  They were 26-point dogs at Utah and only lost 12-27.  Oregon State hasn't lost to Oregon by more than 28 points in any of the last 9 meetings.  It only lost 35-36 as 24-point dogs in its last trip to Eugene in 2013.  Take Oregon State.

6* Iowa/Nebraska Big Ten *CA$H COW* on Nebraska +2.5

The Key: This is a tough scheduling spot for Iowa and a great one for Nebraska.  The Huskers had a bye last week and have had 12 days in between games as a result.  The Hawkeyes had to play Purdue last Saturday and have had only 5 days between games.  That extra rest of a big reason I'm taking Nebraska here.  But I also like the fact that a win get the Huskers to a bowl game, plus they are better than their 5-6 record.  Their six losses this season have come by an average of 3.8 points per game, so they've had brutal luck in close games all year.  They finally got some luck to go their way in a 39-38 upset win over Michigan State in their last home game, and they followed that up with a 31-14 win at Rutgers.  The Huskers are 22-8 ATS in their last 30 home games vs. teams who win more than 75% of their games and 17-5 ATS in their last 22 home games vs. good offensive teams that score 34 or more points per game.  Mike Riley is 19-8 ATS off a bye week in all games he has coached.  Take Nebraska.

7* Western Michigan/Toledo MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Toledo -8

The Key: Toledo is 9-1 and has a chance to cap the regular season with its best record in 15 years and play for the MAC Championship.  A win would put the Rockets in the MAC Championship for the first time since 2004.  They have this opportunity because Northern Illinois lost to Ohio on Tuesday.  Now I fully expect this re-energized group to take advantage and to pick up its sixth consecutive victory over Western Michigan in this series.  The Rockets scored on their first six possessions and held Bowling Green's high-octane offense to a season-low 368 total yards in a 44-28 road win last week.  Western Michigan gives up 185.3 rushing yards per game and has surrendered 525 rushing yards and five rushing TDs in its last two games.  Kareem Hunt has gained 406 yards with six touchdowns over his last three games and is primed for a big day.  The Rockets are 11-1-2 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  Take Toledo.

6* Texas Tech/Texas Big 12 *CA$H COW* on Texas +2

The Key: Texas Tech has already clinched its bowl berth, but Texas still needs two more wins to get bowl eligible.  I like the motivational angle of the Longhorns here.  I also like the fact that the Longhorns simply have the Red Raiders figures out.  Indeed, they are 6-0 in their last six meetings with all six wins coming by double-digits.  That includes a 34-13 road win last year and a 41-16 home win in 2013.  Also, Texas Tech hasn't won in Austin since 1997.  It has lost eight straight visits by an average of 26.3 points per game.  The Longhorns are 41-13-1 at home on Thanksgiving Day.  They have rushed for 256.4 yards per game over their last five games.  Texas Tech gives up 259.9 rushing yards per game, which is one of the worst marks in the country.  Take Texas.

7* Bowling Green/Ball State MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Ball State +23.5

The Key: I really question the motivation of the Bowling Green Falcons right now.  They already locked up their spot in the MAC Championship Game two weeks ago with a win over Western Michigan.  They promptly fell flat on their faces last week in a 28-44 home loss to Toledo despite being 7-point favorites.  They are in the exact same situation as last year where they clinched with two games left and lost their final two games before getting rolled by Northern Illinois in the Championship Game as well.  In their season finale last year, the Falcons lost 24-41 as 10-point home favorites over Ball State.  The Cardinals would like to end their season on a positive note with a win here, and it's also Senior Night, so they will be motivated.  I have little doubt they'll stay within three touchdowns of Bowling Green in this one.  They haven't lost by more than 14 points at home this year.  They are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games following two straight games where they gave up 37 or more points.  Take Ball State.

6* NCAAF Non-Conference Game of the Week on Idaho +34

The Key: How can Auburn be trusted to lay 34 points with the season it is having right now?  The Tigers are 5-5 and still not bowl eligible.  They needed overtime to beat Jacksonville State as a 39-point favorite earlier this year and were outgained in that game by 37 yards.  In fact, they have been outgained in seven of their 10 games this season.  Idaho is better than Jacksonville State.  It has been competitive this season as only one of its seven losses came by more than 27 points.  That was a 9-59 loss at USC back in Week 2.  Idaho does have a good offense that is averaging 29.2 points and 414.8 yards per game and put some points on the board to help with the cover.  The Vandals have scored 27 or more points six times this year.  Sophomore QB Matt Linehan is a stud, completing 63.8 percent of his passes while ranking third in the country in passing yards per game (274.6).  Auburn is 2-10 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better over the last two seasons.  The Tigers will be looking ahead to their Iron Bowl showdown with Alabama next week and won't be up for the Vandals this week.  The Tigers are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games.  Take Idaho.

7* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Pittsburgh -2

The Key: The Pittsburgh Panthers are 7-3 this season and having a great year.  Their three losses were to Notre Dame, Iowa and Pittsburgh, who have a combined two losses on the season.  Both Notre Dame and Iowa are playoff contenders.  The Panthers weren't overmatched against any of those three teams, losing by 12 points or less in all three games with a 3-point loss at Iowa, a 7-point loss to UNC, and a 12-point loss to Notre Dame.  Now it will be up against a mediocre 6-4 Louisville team that has narrow wins over Boston College (17-14), Wake Forest (20-19) and Virginia (38-31) in three of its last four games.  I look for the Panthers to take care of business at home.  They are coming off a 31-13 road win at Duke in what was one of their most complete performances of the season.  That's key because the Panthers are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 home games off a win by 10 points or more.  Pitt is 5-1 ATS in its last six meetings with Louisville, winning four of the last five outright.  Take Pittsburgh.

6* NCAAF Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Florida Atlantic +31

The Key: It's all about survive and advance right now for the Florida Gators, which is precisely what they've done the last two weeks in lackluster performances.  They only beat Vanderbilt 9-7 two weeks ago at home as 20.5-point favorites, and then needed a late TD to put away South Carolina 24-14 on the road last week.  They aren't going to be concerned with how much they beat Florida Atlantic by, instead they'll be looking ahead to next week's showdown with Florida State that will determine whether or not it is a legitimate playoff contender.  The Gators lack the firepower to put up big points as they average just 28.1 points and 371 yards per game.  Florida Atlantic has been much better than its 2-8 record shows.  All 8 of its losses have come by 24 or fewer points, including seven by 18 or less.  They have played some good teams too in Miami, Marshall, Western Kentucky and Middle Tennessee.  Florida only has one win by more than 28 points this season, which was back in the opener against an awful New Mexico State team.  The Owls are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  FAU is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 road games and 4-1 ATS in its last 5 vs. SEC opponents.  The Gators are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Take Florida Atlantic.

7* Cincinnati/USF NCAAF Friday Night Lights on South Florida +2

The Key: The South Florida Bulls have a realistic shot of winning the AAC East division.  They are one game back of Temple, which plays Memphis on Saturday.  The Bulls beat the Owls 44-23 at home last week in a dominant effort, outgaining them by 176 yards behind 230 rushing yards from Marlon Mack.  That followed up a 22-17 road win at East Carolina in which they outgained the Pirates by 222 yards.  South Florida has been tough to beat at home, going 4-1 SU & 4-0-1 ATS this season, winning by an average of 21.4 PPG.  The Bulls are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.  Cincinnati is 1-3 on the road this season with its only win coming by 4 points over Miami Ohio as 21-point favorites.  The Bulls are 7-0 ATS in games played on a grass field this year.  Take South Florida.

6* ECU/UCF ESPN National TV Annihilator on Central Florida +14.5

The Key: Because they are 0-10, the UCF Knights are show great value today as two-touchdown underdogs to the ECU Pirates.  The betting public wants nothing to do with this 0-10 team.  But the Knights are better than their record and played Tulsa very tough in their last game.  ECU has really struggled of late with three straight losses while averaging just 14.7 points per game in them.  This has become a nice rivalry, so the Knights will be motivated, especially since this game will be aired on ESPN.  UCF has not lost by more than 14 points to ECU in any of the last 9 meetings, making for a 9-0 angle backing the Knights dating back to 2005.  The Pirates are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 Thursday games, while the Knights are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 Thursday showdowns.  Take UCF.

6* WMU/NIU ESPN2 National TV Annihilator on Western Michigan +3

The Key: Western Michigan wants revenge from a 21-31 home loss to Northern Illinois last year that kept it out of the MAC Championship Game.  The Broncos led 21-0 but committed six turnovers to give the game away in the second half.  They have the team to beat Northern Illinois this year and get over the hump.  The Huskies are playing with their backup QB in Ryan Graham, which is a big disadvantage.  Western Michigan is averaging 543 yards per game and giving up just 376 in conference play, outgaining teams by 167 yards per game.  The Broncos are 5-1 against common opponents with Northern Illinois, which is 4-2 against those same teams.  Western Michigan is a perfect 6-0 ATS in conference road games the last two seasons, and 9-2 ATS as an underdog the last two years.  Take Western Michigan.

7* Toledo/Bowling Green MAC GAME OF THE MONTH on Toledo +8

The Key: Bowling Green already clinched the MAC East title for the second consecutive season.  It is now already penciled into the MAC Championship Game.  Toledo is tied with Northern Illinois and Western Michigan atop the MAC West with 5-1 records each.  The Rockets still have some work to do, and motivation will clearly be on their side in this one, while we don't know what we'll get from Bowling Green.  The Falcons were in the same situation last year having clinched the MAC East early, and they proceeded to lose each of their final three games of the season, including a 17-point loss to Ball State at home as 10-point favorites.  Toledo has won five straight meetings with Bowling Green.  The Rockets are 10-1-2 ATS in their last 13 games overall, including 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games.  Take Toledo.

6* Utah/Arizona Pac-12 *BAILOUT* on Arizona +6

The Key: Arizona needs one more win to get bowl eligible and would love to get it here against a highly-ranked Utah team.  It doesn't want to have to bank on pulling the upset next week as road underdogs to Arizona State.  The Wildcats are coming off one of their better performances of the season in a 30-38 road loss at USC as 19-point underdogs last week.  Utah was fortunate to win at Washington last week as the Huskies committed four turnovers and gave the Utes a bunch of easy points.  The Utes only gained 346 total yards in that game.  Utah is only outgained teams by 17.6 yards per game on the season, so it is very fortunate to be 8-1 because it continues winning the turnover battle, which is luck more than anything.  Arizona is outgaining teams by 47 yards per game this season behind an offense that is putting up 502.1 per contest.  The Wildcats beat the Utes 42-10 as 5.5-point road underdogs last year while racking up 520 total yards of offense.  Kyle Whittingham is 8-24 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points as the coach of Arizona.  Rich Rodriquez is 6-0 ATS off two or more straight losses as the coach of Arizona, with the Wildcats coming back to win by 15.8 points per game in this situation.  Take Arizona.

6* Oklahoma/Baylor Big 12 *CA$H COW* on Baylor -2

The Key: Baylor is 29-1 at home over the last five seasons.  The Bears have won 20 straight at home by an average of 25 points per game with their 61-58 win over TCU last year the only game that was decided by less than a TD.  That includes 13 straight Big 12 home wins as well.  Baylor has beaten Oklahoma by 29 and 34 points the last two years while outgaining the Sooners by 222 and 225 yards, respectively.  The Bears have averaged 42 PPG, 511 YPG and 6.2 YPP in their last four meetings with the Sooners.  They have scored TDs on 21 of their 56 drives with nearly a quarter of their plays going for 10-plus yards.  Jarrett Stidham is better than he's getting credit for here as he's thrown 9 touchdowns without an interception this season while completing 77% of his passes.  The Bears are a ridiculous 26-7 ATS in their last 33 home games overall.  Take Baylor.

7* American Athletic GAME OF THE YEAR on South Florida +3

The Key: South Florida is 3-1 at home this season with its only loss to Memphis coming by a final of 24-17.  USF has won its other three games at Raymond James Stadium by a combined 134-41 score.  "I know one thing about Ray Jay, when it's rocking it's hard for any opponent to come in here and play," coach Willie Taggart told the Bulls' official website. "I've been on the other side of that coming in here and playing when that place is rocking. That's how we need it Saturday night."  A win would have the Bulls becoming bowl eligible for the first time since 2010, so expect a great crowd Saturday night.  Temple is very beatable and is overvalued as the favorite here due to going 5-1 ATS in its last six games.  It needed some late-game magic to beat both East Carolina and SMU on the road recently, which are two teams that aren't as good as this South Florida outfit.  USF also beat ECU on the road and SMU by 24 at home.  The Bulls have won four of their last five with their only loss coming at Navy 17-29 in a game that was very close until the 4th quarter.  USF is 6-0 ATS in games played on a grass field this season.  Take South Florida.

6* Big 12 Game of the Week on Kansas +45.5

The Key: The TCU Horned Frogs are going to suffer a hangover Saturday from their 29-49 loss at Oklahoma State that likely cost it a shot to play in the four-team playoff.  With Oklahoma and Baylor on deck, this is a sandwich game that the Horned Frogs aren't going to show up for.  That's why they won't be able to put away Kansas by this ridiculous 45.5-point margin.  Star WR Josh Doctson was knocked out of the Oklahoma State game with a wrist injury and the Horned Frogs never recovered.  While he may return Saturday, he's not going to be 100% and won't be the factor he usually is, making this TCU offense less explosive.  TCU has struggled to beat Kansas State the last three years.  It is 0-3 ATS, only winning 20-6 as 18.5-point road favorites in 2012, 27-17 as 24-point home favorites in 2013, and 34-30 as 28-point road favorites last year.  The Jayhawks were only outgained 418-463 by the Horned Frogs last season.  Take Kansas.

6* Ohio State/Illinois *EARLY RISER* on Ohio State -16.5

The Key: J.T. Barrett returns from his 1-game suspension and will be eager to lead the Buckeyes to a blowout win over Illinois Saturday.  He missed last game against Minnesota, and Ohio State struggled offensively in a 28-14 win with Cardale Jones.  Barrett had started his first game of the season the week before, leading the Buckeyes to a 49-7 win at Rutgers.  Barrett threw for 223 yards and three touchdowns, while also rushing for 101 yards and two touchdowns in the win.  He is the real deal, and this offense goes as he goes.  Illinois has been a punching bag for Ohio State in recent years and I look for that to continue.  The Buckeyes have won the least three meetings by 41, 25 and 30 points, or by an average of 32.0 points per game.  The Buckeyes are 38-16-1 ATS in their last 55 road games.  The Fighting Illini are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games following a ATS win.  Take Ohio State.

6* USC/Colorado Pac-12 *TOTAL* Annihilator on OVER 59

The Key: This one is pretty easy folks as this game is going to be a shootout between Colorado and USC.  They combined for 86 points last year in a 56-28 USC victory in which Cody Kessler threw a school-record 7 touchdown passes.  That followed up a 76-point effort in 2013 when USC won 47-29 at Colorado.  USC has combined for 66 or more points with 3 of its last 4 opponents.  Colorado has combined for 65 or more points in 4 of its last 6 games with its opposition.  Colorado is 9-1 to the OVER in its last 10 games against teams that win 60% to 75% of their games with 74 points per game on average in this spot.  Take the OVER.

6* UL-Lafayette/South Alabama Sun Belt Game of the Week on UL-Lafayette +2

The Key: Despite sharing identical 4-4 records, there's no question in my mind that UL-Lafayette is by far the superior team in this matchup with South Alabama.  The Rajin' Cajuns are outgaining teams by 2 yards per game this season, while the Jaguars are getting outgained by 30 yards per game.  Lafayette is also only getting outscored by 1.3 points per game, while South Alabama is getting outscored by 9.9 points per game.  This is a great matchup for the Rajin' Cajuns.  They are a run-first team that averages 211 rushing yards per game and 5.3 per carry.  They'll be up against a South Alabama defense that gives up 218 rushing yards per game and 5.1 per carry.  Their ability to run the football at will is going to prove to be the difference in this one.  South Alabama is 1-11 ATS in weeks 10 through 13 in its last 12 tries.  The Jaguars are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. win.   Plays against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 off a home win after the first month of the season are 58-19 ATS over the last 5 years.  Take Lafayette.

6* Bowling Green/Western Michigan MAC *CA$H COW* on Western Michigan +3

The Key: Western Michigan is 4-1 at home this season with its only loss coming 24-37 to Michigan State.  It is outscoring teams by an average of 18.0 points per game at home this year.  The Broncos will pick up another win as home underdogs to the Bowling Green Falcons tonight.  Western Michigan has the better defense in this one, and its balance offensively with 208 rushing yards per game and 278 passing is a nice asset to have.  The Broncos are 4-0 in their last four meetings with the Falcons, including last year's 26-14 road win.  Western Michigan is 9-1 against the spread in its last 10 games as an underdog.  Take Western Michigan.

7* Toledo/CMU NCAAF Tuesday *HEAVY HITTER* on Central Michigan +4.5

The Key: The Central Michigan Chippewas are a sensational 8-1 against the spread in 2015.  The oddsmakers continue to undervalue this team, and that's the case here as 4.5-point home underdogs.  They have lost four games this year, but they covered the spread in all four and arguably should have won three of them.  They outgained Michigan State, Western Michigan and Syracuse.  Oklahoma State, which is 9-0, only outgained them by 77 yards in an 11-point road win.  Central Michigan is rested having last played on October 31.  Toledo is in a tough spot here after playing on November 3 last Tuesday in a 32-27 home loss to Northern Illinois.  That loss is likely going to keep the Rockets out of the MAC Championship Game again, and these players know it.  It's going to be hard to bounce back from that loss as a result.  Central Michigan has won its last three home games all by 10 points or more, including a 29-19 victory over that same Northern Illinois team.  The Chippewas are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  Take Central Michigan.

7* LSU/Alabama NCAAF Rivalry GAME OF THE YEAR on Alabama -7

The Key: LSU has breezed to 7-0 thanks to a soft schedule that has featured five home games.  But the two road games the Tigers have played in, they didn't play nearly as well.  They only won 21-19 at Mississippi State as 3-point favorites and 34-24 at Syracuse as 23.5-point favorites.  Alabama is built to stop the run and dominates all teams that think they can just run the football on them.  LSU is a one-dimensional offense that only averages 11 pass completions per game.  Alabama will be highly motivated to stop Leonard Fournette, who has benefited from playing such a soft schedule to this point.  Alabama only gives up 78 rushing yards per game and 2.6 per carry.  Two other one-dimensional running teams didn't have any success against the Crimson Tide this year.  They beat Wisconsin 35-17 and Georgia 38-10, both on the road.  Alabama can both pass (233 yards/game) and run (188 yards/game), and its balance offensively will be huge in this game.  LSU has allowed at least 19 points in all seven of its games this season, so it is no juggernaut defensively.  The Tigers are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games following a win.  Take Alabama.

6* C-USA Game of the Week on Old Dominion +8.5

The Key: Old Dominion is 0-8 against the spread this season, still the only team to fail to cover at least one spread all year.  The betting public obviously doesn't want anything to do with this team because of their futility against the number.  But there's a ton of sharp money on the Monarchs as this line has been bet down from 12 to 8.5 already.  I still don't think it's enough because the Monarchs are the better team in this one.  They are 3-5 on the season and needing to win 3 of their last 4 games to become bowl eligible.  It starts this week against UTSA, which is just 1-7 on the season and has nothing to play for but pride.  So I like the motivational advantage for the Monarchs here  They still play UTSA, UTEP, Southern Miss and Florida Atlantic in their final four games, so winning three of those is very doable.  UTSA is so bad that it just lost to North Texas 23-30 last week, which fired its head coach earlier this year.  The Roadrunners have been outgained in five of their last seven games, and by 144-plus yards in four of those.  They shouldn't be laying this kind of weight against the Monarchs.  Plays against of 3.5 to 10 points (UTSA) - off an upset loss as a road favorite of 7 or more in weeks 10 through 13 are 29-6 ATS since 1992.  Take Old Dominion.

6* Sun Belt Game of the Week on New Mexico State +17

The Key: New Mexico State is coming off its first win of the season last week in a 55-48 victory over Idaho.  But make no mistake, this team is better than 1-7.  The Aggies have three losses by 9 points or less this year, so they have been competitive in most of their games.  They should not be catching 17 points against a Texas State team that has rarely even been competitive in a 2-5 start.  Four of Texas State's five losses have come by 22 or more points.  The only exception was a 50-56 home loss to Southern Miss.  Texas State's two wins have come against FCS foe Prairie View A&M and South Alabama.  But the 36-18 home win over South Alabama was very fluky as the Bobcats were outgained by 44 yards in that contest.  Texas State gives up 43.1 points, 553 yards per game and 7.2 per play.  New Mexico State is no slouch offensively, averaging 26.5 points, 419 yards per game and 6.0 per play.  The Aggies will be able to score enough points to stay within the number here.  Texas State only beat NMSU 37-29 last year and shouldn't have won that game at all.  The Aggies outgained the Bobcats 639-430 for the game and will be playing with revenge in mind.  Plays against home favorites (TEXAS ST) - after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after going over the total by 28 or more points total in their last three games are 33-8 ATS since 1992.  Take New Mexico State.

6* NCAAF Non-Conference Game of the Week on Army +17

The Key: In rivalry games like this, I usually look to side with the underdog first.  I can't help but think there is some serious value here with Army catching 17 points against Air Force.  For starters, Army has had two full weeks to prepare for Air Force after last playing on October 24 in a 31-38 road loss to Rice.  Meanwhile, Air Force had to travel all the way to Hawaii last weekend.  The Falcons won that game 58-7 against a hapless Warriors bunch that hasn't been competitive against anyone lately.  That final score has inflated this line higher than it should be.  The spread for the Army/Navy game hasn't been higher than 17 points in any of the last 11 meetings.  Army hasn't lost to Air Force by more than 17 points in any of the last four meetings.  Army QB Ahmad Bradshaw is probable for this game.  He is a decent passer completing 50% of his passes with a 3-to-2 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 336 yards and four touchdowns while being limited to only six games this year due to injury.  Army has played its best football on the road this year with a 5-point loss at UConn as 6.5-point dogs, a 22-point win at Eastern Michigan as 2-point favorites, a 6-point loss at Penn State as 25.5-point dogs, and a 7-point loss at Rice as 7-point dogs.  So, the Black Knights are 3-0-1 ATS in road games this year.  The road team is 11-4 ATS in the last 15 meetings.  Take Army.

6* ACC Game of the Week on Duke +7.5

The Key: Duke got the shaft when Miami's kick return TD on the final game of the play wasn't overturned.  Instead of winning like they should have, they lost 30-27.  For most teams it would be hard to recover from that kind of result, but that won't be the case for Duke.  That's because if they win out, they'll still win the ACC Coastal Division and play in the ACC Championship Game.  "Even if we (had beaten Miami), we would still need to beat UNC to make it to (first place in) the Coastal," defensive lineman A.J. Wolf said Tuesday. "That helps us refocus up and say, `Guys, this game's huge.' We still need to beat them to make it there. We're still in the driver's seat."  In UNC's two toughest games this year, they only beat both Georgia Tech and Pittsburgh by a touchdown each.  I believe there's a good chance this game is decided by a TD or less as well.  Duke is outgaining its foes by 126 yards per game and the Tar Heels by 112.  Duke is not only 8-1 ATS in its last nine regular season games as an underdog, but also 8-1 straight up in those.  Take Duke.

7* BYU/San Jose State NCAAF Friday Night Lights on San Jose State +13

The Key: San Jose State is a better team than it gets credit for.  It is 4-1 ATS in its last five games overall while outgaining four of its last five opponents.  The Spartans outgained Fresno State by 296 yards, Auburn by 64 on the road, UNLV by 41 on the road, and New Mexico by 163 at home while winning three of those four contests.  BYU is a team that relies heavily on the pass to move the football, averaging 294 yards per game through the air.  That makes this an excellent matchup for the Spartans, who lead the country in giving up just 122 passing yards per game and 5.8 per attempt.  BYU is without three starting offensive linemen in Ryker Matthews, Ului Lapuaho and Kyle Johnson, so it is short-handed up front, too.  The Spartans are actually outgaining opponents by 63.6 yards per game this season.  The home team is 3-0 in the last three meetings in this series, including a 20-14 win by the Spartans in their only home meeting with the Cougars.  Even in their two road losses they only lost by 13 as 14.5-point dogs and by 3 as 18-point dogs.  This one will go right down to the wire as well.  BYU is 0-6 ATS off a bye week over the last three seasons, losing by 5.8 points per game.  Take San Jose State.

6* Baylor/Kansas State Big 12 *TOTAL* Annihilator on UNDER 68

The Key: The Kansas State Wildcats aren't going to be able to put up enough points to help get this over.  They have been held to a combined 9 points in their past two games with a 55-0 loss to Oklahoma and a 9-23 loss at Texas.  The Sooners held them to 110 total yards while the Longhorns held them to 242.  QB Joe Hubener has completed 30 of 78 passes with one touchdown and five interceptions in Big 12 play.  This Baylor defense is one of the strongest in the Big 12 in allowing just 25.1 PPG this season.  Kansas State does still have a respectable defense that is allowing 28.9 PPG this season.  Baylor won't be as prolific offensively with a freshman QB making his first start in the absence of Seth Russell.  I also like that both teams have had nearly two weeks to prepare for one another, which certainly favors defense over offense.  They have combined for 65 and 60 points in their last two meetings.  Take the UNDER.

7* Ohio/BG MAC Game of the Week on Ohio +20

The Key: The betting public loves backing high-scoring teams like the Bowling Green Falcons.  They have been rewarded this year as the Falcons have gone 6-2 straight up and 6-2 against the spread up to this point.  But now the oddsmakers have over-adjusted here in listing the Falcons as 20-point favorites over rival Ohio.  Adding to this adjustment is that Ohio has been blown out in its past two games against Western Michigan and Buffalo.  But the loss to Buffalo was far from the 17-41 final score as the Bobcats actually outgained the Bulls by 49 yards in the game, but shot themselves in the foot with four turnovers.  Ohio has played some good football on the road this year, winning 14-12 at Akron and only losing 24-27 at Minnesota.  The Bobcats still believe they can win the MAC, but it starts with an upset here of the Falcons.  Look for them to put their best foot forward in this rivalry game.  The Bobcats are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.  The Bobcats are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a bye week.  Take Ohio.

7* Northern Illinois/Toledo MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Northern Illinois +7.5

The Key: Northern Illinois is the king of the MAC and isn't ready to let Toledo take its throne this year.  I like the 7.5 points we're getting here with how dominant the Huskies have been in this series.  They have gone 5-0 in their last five meetings with the Rockets.  They are 6-1 in the last seven meetings as well with their only loss coming by a single point.  Northern Illinois has three losses this year, but all three came by 10 points or less and all three on the road.  That includes a 13-20 loss at Ohio State in which they held the Buckeyes to less than 300 yards.  They have the better defense in this one.  Toledo is 7-0 but should have lost to both Arkansas and Iowa State.  It was outgianed by 197 yards by Arkansas and by 172 yards by Iowa State.  The Rockets also trailed 10-28 at UMass in their last game before coming back to win.   The Huskies are 19-6-2 ATS in their last 27 road games & 7-1-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a win by 21 points or more.  The underdog is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings and the road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.  Take Northern Illinois.

6* Stanford/Washington State Pac-12 *BAILOUT* on Stanford -10

The Key: Stanford has been a completely different team since a season-opening 6-16 loss at Northwestern.  It has gone 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in its last six games overall and has clearly climbed back into the national title discussion.  All six wins came by 10 points or more, including five by 17-plus points.  That includes wins over USC, Arizona and UCLA.  This game with Washington State is for first place in the Pac-12 North, so the Cardinal will not be taking the Cougars lightly.  This is a Washington State team that lost 17-24 at home to Portland State in the opener.  It has rebounded nicely since, but it is also overvalued as a result.  The Cougars have a good offense, but now they'll be up against the conference's top defense.  Stanford leads the Pac-12 with 339.3 total yards allowed per game, and only 204.7 through the air.  The Cardinal are 7-0 in their last seven meetings with the Cougars with an average margin of victory of 26.6 points per game.  They have held Washington State to just 15.1 points per game while scoring 41.7 per contest themselves during this streak.  Their last three trips to Washington State have resulted in blowout wins by 38, 30 and 26 points.  Take Stanford.

6* NCAAF Dog of the Week on Tulane +31.5

The Key: Memphis is rolling right now at 7-0 and ranked in the Top 25.  Many feel that this is the best Non-Power 5 team in the country and that the Tigers are deserving of a New Year's 6 bowl bid.  While I won't argue against that much, the fact of the matter is that it's time to sell high on the Tigers.  They are coming off back-to-back wins and covers against Ole Miss and Tulsa.  They know that their fate rests in their next three games following this matchup with Tulane, which makes this a lookahead spot.  They have a trio of key AAC games on deck in Navy, Houston and Temple.  Don't expect them to put their best foot forward against Tulane this week.  Tulane is coming off one of its strongest performances of the season.  In a losing effort at Navy, it actually outgained the Midshipmen 386-291 for the game.  The Green Wave do have a good defense that can keep this game closer than expected.  They are also going with a change at QB in Jordy Joseph, who led them on an 88-yard TD drive late against Navy.  I like that change because this offense needs a spark and he's a veteran.  Last year Memphis beat Tulane 38-7 despite the Green Wave outgaining the Tigers 351-334 for the game.  It was a fluky final score because Memphis returned two interceptions for touchdowns to turn a close game into a blowout.  Memphis is 4-17 ATS in its last 21 games off a road win by 10 points or more.  The Tigers are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games after a game where 80 or more combined points were scored.  Take Tulane.

6* USC/Cal Pac-12 *PUNISHER* on USC -4

The Key: Utah head coach Kyle Whittingham said it best after his team's 24-42 loss at USC last week.  He stated that USC is the best 4-3 team in the country, and that's a massive understatement.  The Trojans could easily be 7-0 right now, but their 4-3 record has them undervalued.  Their offense averaged 38.9 points and 492.0 yards per game, while their defense gives up just 21.7 points and 395.4 yards per game.  They are outscoring opponents by 17.2 points per game and nearly outgaining them by 100 yards per game despite playing a difficult schedule that has included Stanford, Notre Dame, Utah, Arizona State and Washington.  California breezed to a 5-0 start against soft competition, but has met its match the last two weeks.  The Golden Bears lost 24-30 at Utah and then 24-40 at UCLA last week.  They gave up 573 total yards to the Bruins, and now they will be up against another high-powered offense here in USC.  USC is 11-0 in its last 11 meetings with Cal since 2004 with an average margin of victory of 19 points per game.  Last year's 38-30 USC win was the closest the Golden Bears have come since 2007, but that game only got close because Cal scored two late touchdowns long after the game had been decided.  Take USC.

6* USF/Navy AAC *EARLY RISER* on Navy -7

The Key: I'm always looking to back Ken Niumatalolo's teams and the triple option at the right opportunity.  Navy just joined the AAC this year, so other teams aren't familiar with the triple-option, which is a big reason for Navy's 5-1 start to the season.  The Midshipmen are 3-0 in AAC play with wins over ECU (45-21), UConn (28-18) and Tulane (31-14).  Now they face a South Florida team that is overvalued after going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three games off wins over Syracuse, UConn and SMU.  USF coach Willie Taggart is an offensive guy, and first-year defensive coordinator Tom Allen has not seen anything like the triple-option at the FBS level.  Despite being 4-3, South Florida has actually been outgained in six of its seven games this year.  The Bulls are getting patted on the back because they aren't used to winning, but this team clearly isn't as good as the 4-3 record suggests.  Plus, QB Quinton Flowers is playing banged up right now.  Expect Navy QB Keenan Reynolds to be the difference in this one as he's primed for a big game against an unprepared USF defense.  The Midshipmen are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games and 10-4 ATS in their last 14 vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Navy.

7* Big Ten GAME OF THE YEAR on Penn State -4.5

The Key: Penn State is 5-0 at home this season and outscoring opponents by 16.4 points per game.  The Nittany Lions have held the opposition to just 11.8 points per game at home this year.  They lead the nation in sacks (31), and now they'll be up against a primary passing team in Illinois and Wes Lunt.  He won't have the luxury of handing the ball off to top running back Josh Ferguson, who is out with an injury.  Lunt will be under pressure all game as this Penn State defense carries it to victory.  The Nittany Lions are 8-1 straight up in their last nine home meetings with the Fighting Illini.  Not only do they win this one, but they cover with ease winning by a touchdown or more.  I also like the fact that James Franklin is 7-0 ATS off an ATS loss where his team won straight up as a favorite in all games he has coached.  Take Penn State.

7* Wyoming/Utah State ESPN 2 Friday Night Lights on UNDER 49

The Key: Wyoming is only averaging 19.5 points per game this season.  And that's with a healthy QB Cameron Coffman and a healthy WR in Tanner Gentry for most the year.  Both both Coffman and Gentry are going to miss this game due to injury.  Coffman was completing 65.8 percent of his passes with a 15-to-7 TD/INT ratio, so that's a big loss.  His backup is freshman Nick Smith, who has completed just 7-of-21 (33.3%) of his passes this year.  Gentry leads the team with 678 receiving yards and is also a huge loss.  I don't expect Wyoming to do much against this Utah State defense, which only gives up 321.3 yards per game.  At the same time, Utah State lacks firepower offensively as well.  It only averages 338.1 yards per game this year.  Both teams like to run the football as Wyoming rushed is 40 times per game and Utah State averages 38 attempts per contest.  That will keep the clock moving and aid this under.  Utah State beat Wyoming 20-3 last year and 35-7 in 2013 in two pretty low-scoring games that finished well under this 49-point total.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Cowboys last 4 games overall.  Wyoming is 17-3 UNDER as a road underdog of 21.5 or more points since 1992.  Take the UNDER.

6* Oregon/Arizona State ESPN *BAILOUT* on Arizona State -2.5

The Key: The Arizona State Sun Devils want revenge from eight consecutive losses to Oregon coming in.  The Sun Devils are certainly a great team this season that already has three losses.  But those three losses have come to Texas A&M, Utah and USC with two of them on the road.  They are 3-1 at home with their only loss to USC, but despite the lopsided final score, they were only outgained by one yard by the Trojans.  They also went on the road and beat UCLA 28-13 while outgaining the Bruins by 123 yards.  Oregon also has three losses and is way down this year.  Its four wins have come against Eastern Washington, Georgia State, Washington and Colorado.  It has lost to Utah (by 42), Washington State and Michigan State.  ASU actually led Utah 18-14 on the road in the fourth quarter in its last game, too.  Oregon's defense allows 36 points and 462 yards per game this season.  Oregon's offense relies heavily on its rushing attack, which produced 297 yards per game.  But ASU is one of the best in the country against the run, giving up only 129 yards per game and 3.2 per carry.  The Sun Devils have allowed 76 or less rushing yards in four straight to some very good teams in USC, UCLA, Utah and Colorado.  The Sun Devils are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring 20 points per fewer in their previous game.  Take Arizona State.

7* Mountain West GAME OF THE YEAR on Wyoming +35

The Key: Wyoming is just 1-6 this season, but it is flying under the radar right now.  The Cowboys have covered the spread in three straight games, but yet they are still catching 35 points against Boise State tonight.  They only lost by 18 at Appalachian State as 26-point dogs, by 14 at Air Force as 21-point dogs, and they beat Nevada 28-21 at home last week as 6.5-point dogs.  They played their best game of the season against Nevada, racking up 485 yards of total offense while outgaining the Wolf Pack by 80 yards in the win.  They also have a 17-point loss as 25.5-point road dogs to Washington State this season.  This team has proven it can go on the road and play with good teams, and that will be the case again Saturday.  Wyoming is 16-3 ATS in its last 19 road games after a game where it committed no turnovers.  The Cowboys are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games.  The Broncos are 7-16 ATS in their last 23 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Take Wyoming.

6* C-USA Game of the Week on Old Dominion +13

The Key: Old Dominion is undervalued right now because it is 0-6 against the spread this season.  But it has gone 3-3 straight up and is a better team than this line suggests.  Florida International has no business being this big of a favorite here.  FIU's three wins this season have come against UCF, NC Central and UTEP, three of the worst teams in the country.  FIU even lost to a terrible team in UMass a few weeks ago 14-24.  That was a bigger blowout than the score showed as the Golden Panthers were actually outgained by 307 yards by the Minutemen.  These teams played a very close game last year with ODU winning 38-35 at home.  But the Monarchs should have won by more as they outgained the Golden Panthers 525-388 for the game.  I expect another close game, and while FIU may win the rematch, it won't be by two TD's or more.  The Golden Panthers are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.  Take Old Dominion.

6* AAC Game of the Week on SMU +13.5

The Key: SMU has played one of the toughest schedules in the country, which makes it easy to see why it is just 1-5 on the season.  It has already played three ranked teams in Baylor, TCU and Houston, actually covering the spread in all three of those games while playing those teams tougher than expected.  The Mustangs also have a loss to East Carolina, which is clearly a solid team.  South Florida has played a much softer schedule and it is overvalued due to back-to-back wins over Syracuse and UConn.  Now the Bulls face a well-rested SMU team that will have had 15 days in between games since its loss at Houston.  The Mustangs were only outgained by 58 yards by Houston in a game that was closer than the 21-point final would indicate.  South Florida has been outgained in four of its last five games.  The Mustangs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games.  The Bulls are 7-19-2 ATS in their last 28 home games.  South Florida is 3-12-1 ATS in its last 16 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The road team has won each of the last two meetings in this series over the past two years, and they were decided by a combined 11 points.  Take SMU.

6* ACC Game of the Week on Syracuse +7

The Key: Pitt just moved into the Top 25 rankings due to its 5-1 start and a 56-yard field goal that helped it beat Georgia Tech 31-28 on the road last week.  This is now a letdown spot for the Panthers, who will be playing their 5th road game in seven weeks.  They have a Thursday night showdown with North Carolina on deck for the top spot in the Coastal Division, followed by Notre Dame.  Pitt is averaging only 314 yards per game and 24 points per game on the road this year.  Syracuse really needs a win here if it wants to keep its bowl hopes alive.  The Orange are 3-1 at home this season with their only loss to LSU, a game in which the Orange actually had a 21-17 edge in first downs, and only lost 24-34.  Opponents are only scoring 18.8 points per game against the Orange at home.  Syracuse is 6-0 ATS after allowing 37 or more points in its previous game, coming back to win by 16.2 points per game in this spot.  Take Syracuse.

6* Big 12 Game of the Week on Texas -6.5

The Key: The 24-17 win over Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry will catapult the Longhorns into bigger and better things the rest of the season.  Not only did they win that game, they really dominated it.  They outgained the Sooners 368-278 for the game.  That's significant because Kansas State just lost to Oklahoma 55-0 at home last week.  The Wildcats were outgained 110-568 for the game.  The Wildcats will have a hard time rebounding considering they are 0-3 in Big 12 play and their goals are no longer reachable.  Now they have to take on a Texas team that is brimming with confidence and chomping at the bit to get back on the field after having last week off.  The home team has won three straight meetings in this series.  The Longhorns are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a bye week.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.  Take Texas.

7* Memphis/Tulsa ESPN Friday Night Lights on Tulsa +10.5

The Key: The Memphis Tigers are in a very bad spot here.  They are coming off their biggest win in program history over Ole Miss last week.  It was their 13th straight victory, and this team is clearly overvalued as a result.  I don't expect the Tigers to put their best foot forward against Tulsa in this one.  The Golden Hurricane are only 1-3 in their last four games, but the three losses came to Oklahoma, Houston and ECU.  They were competitive in all three games with losses to both the Sooners and Cougars by 14 points, and then a 13-point loss to the Pirates where they actually held a 463-382 yard edge.  The Golden Hurricane clearly have the offense to score at will on this soft Memphis defense.  QB Dane Evans and company are averaging 550.5 yards per game and 6.0 per play behind the expertise of former Baylor offensive coordinator Philip Montgomery.  Tulsa will be amped up for this home game on ESPN.  The Golden Hurricane have won four of the last five meetings with the Tigers.  Memphis is 13-28 ATS in its last 41 games following two straight wins.  Take Tulsa.

7* NCAAF Thursday Night *TOTAL* Annihilator on Georgia Southern/Appalachian State UNDER 62

The Key: I like this UNDER quite a bit for a couple reasons.  The first is that both teams run the football a lot as Georgia Southern averages 56 attempts per game while Appalachian State averages 47.  Both teams are good at stopping the run too as Georgia Southern gives up 136 rushing yards per game (3.9 YPC) and Appalachian State yields 109 rushing yards per game (3.2/carry).  The Mountaineers have only given up 6.0 points per game against all teams outside of Clemson.  These teams have combined for 59 or fewer points in each of their three meetings over the last three years, and an average of 53.0 PPG.  Appalachian State is 5-1 UNDER in all games this season with 51 or fewer combined points in five of six.  Take the UNDER.

6* Lafayette/Arkansas State *TOTAL* Annihilator on OVER 57.5

The Key: This total has been bet down from 63.5 to 57.5 and I believe it's going in the wrong direction.  There is now plenty of value in backing the OVER in this game as a 31-28 final will do the trick.  I look for both teams to at least get to 28 in this high-scoring affair.  Last year, these teams combined for 95 points in a 55-40 win by Lafayette.  Both offenses are averaging over 30 points per game this season with Lafayette putting up 30.8 and Arkansas State averaging 33.5.  The Arkansas State offense is especially explosive, but QB Freddi Knighten has missed three games due to injury.  Knighten returned last week to lead the Red Wolves to a 49-31 win at South Alabama.  Both defenses aren't very good again this season as Lafayette yields 32.4 points per game, while Arkansas State gives up 32.0 points per contest.  The Red Wolves are 8-0 OVER off a conference game over the last two seasons.  Arkansas State is 6-0 OVER in the second half of the season the last two years.  The Red Wolves are 7-0 OVER vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better over the last two years.  Arkansas State is 6-0 OVER vs. bad defensive teams that allow 31 or more points per game the last three seasons.  Take this 27-0 angle backing the OVER straight to the bank.  Take the OVER.

6* SEC Game of the Week on Missouri +14.5

The Key: The Georgia Bulldogs should not be favored by more than two touchdowns against any SEC team right now.  They are down in the dumps after losing the last two weeks to Alabama and Tennessee.  After losing 10-38 at home to Bama, they blew a 21-point lead to Tennessee and lost 31-38 on the road last week.  Now they are without their best player in Nick Chubb for the rest of the season.  This is going to be a defensive battle with Missouri and one that favors the underdog with a total set of just 46 points.  Missouri has one of the best defenses in the country, givin gup 13.5 points and 275.8 yards per game.  The Tigers are really good against the run, allowing 113 yards per game and 2.9 per carry.  Georgia is a one-dimensional running team that struggles to throw the football due to poor QB play.  Missouri wants revenge from a 34-0 loss last year to Georgia in which it gave the game away by committing 5 turnovers.  The Tigers won 41-26 in their last visit to Georgia in 2013.  Missouri is 6-0 ATS off a loss over the last 3 seasons, coming back to win by 16.3 PPG.  The Tigers are 10-2 ATS in all road games over the last 3 years.  Take Missouri.

6* Big Ten Game of the Week on Michigan State +7

The Key: Michigan State is an underdog for the first time this season.  I'll gladly back the Spartans in this underdog role as they'll come out with something to prove for the first time this year.  After all, Michigan State is 6-1 SU & 7-0 ATS in its last 7 meetings with Michigan, so it has had the Wolverines' number and has to feel disrespected that it is an underdog here.  Michigan is one of the most overrated teams in the land because of what it has done recently against some extremely soft competition.  The Spartans are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 road games, 7-0 ATS in their last 7 vs. good rushing defenses that allow 3.25 or less yards per carry, and 8-0 ATS in their last 8 road games off two straight conference wins.  Take Michigan State.