Sports Picks & Predictions

6* Saturday NCAAF *Total* Annihilator on Texas Tech/Kansas OVER 68

The Key: Texas Tech has been a great OVER bet.  They are 3-1 OVER in their last 4 games overall while combining for 75 points with FIU, 105 points with Texas and 83 points with TCU.  They should combine for 68-plus with Kansas here.  This is a terrible Kansas defense that has yielded 45 or more points in all 4 games against FBS competition.  Texas Tech will get to 45, which means Kansas would just need 23-plus here.  The Jayhawks have actually been decent on offense in averaging 5.1 YPPG against teams that give up only 4.7 YPP.  Their schedule of opposing defenses has been brutal, which is why the PPG is down.  But Texas Tech does not have a good defense as they yield 34.3 PPG, so the Jayhawks should have one of their best offensive performances of the year.  Kansas is 10-1 OVER in its last 11 games as an underdog.  The OVER is 5-1 in the last 6 matchups in Kansas.  Take the OVER.

6* Kent State/Western Michigan MAC *CA$H COW* on Kent State +7

The Key: Kent State is one of the better teams in the MAC.  The 3-3 start has them lacking the respect they deserve from oddsmakers.  The 3 losses have come to Texas A&M, Iowa and Maryland all on the road.  They have handled their business in the other 3 games with 3 wins by a combined 67 points.  They will be able to hang with Western Michigan, which is coming off a 20-45 home loss to Ball State.  The Broncos are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games off a double-digit home loss.  The Golden Flashes are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 conference games.  Take Kent State.

6* Kentucky/Georgia SEC *CA$H COW* on UNDER 45

The Key: Two of the best defenses in the country square off Saturday when Kentucky visits Georgia.  The Bulldogs have the best defense in the nation yielding only 5.5 PPG, 203.5 YPG and 3.6 YPP.  The Wildcats yield 17.5 PPG, 305 YPG and 4.6 YPP.  Kentucky has a terrible offense against this year.  They may get shut out here.  It's no surprise recent matchups in this series have been extremely low scoring.  Georgia won 14-3 last year and 21-0 in 2019.  So Kentucky has only managed 3 points total in 2 matchups with them the last 2 years.  Kentucky is 9-1 UNDER in its last 9 road games against teams that average 32 possession minutes and 21 first downs per game.  The Wildcats are 10-1 UNDER in their last 11 road games against elite run defenses that yield 2.75 YPC or less.  Take the UNDER.

7* MAC Game of the Month on Ball State -1

The Key: After a rough start to the season, the Ball State Cardinals are back to looking like the team that won the MAC last season.  They are coming off a 12-point win over Army as a 10.5-point dog and a 25-point win at Western Michigan as a 12.5-point dog.  Now they basically are a pick 'em against Eastern Michigan, a team that isn't nearly on those other two teams' levels.  Eastern Michigan is 4-2 but the wins have come against 4 of the worst teams in the nation.  They are in over their head here against the defending champs.  Ball State is 7-0 ATS in its last 7 against a team with a winning record.  The Cardinals are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games off an upset win as a dog.  Take Ball State.

6* Rutgers/Northwestern Big Ten *CA$H COW* on Northwestern +2

The Key: The situation is a great one for the Northwestern Wildcats.  They are coming off their bye week and hungry to get their first Big Ten victory here against Rutgers.  I like their chances because Rutgers is tired.  The Scarlet Knights will be playing their 7th straight week.  They are coming off 3 straight grueling games against Michigan, Ohio State and Michigan State.  They won't have much gas left in the tank for Northwestern.  Rutgers is 0-8 ATS in its last 8 games against bad pass defenses that allow 62% completions or higher.  The Scarlet Knights are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing 6.25 YPP or more last game.  The Wildcats are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing 575 or more yards last game.  Take Northwestern.

7* California/Oregon NCAAF Friday Night Lights on California +14

The Key: The Oregon Ducks just had their dreams of making the college football playoff crushed with a 24-31 loss to Stanford last game.  The game prior was a misleading 41-19 win over an 0-5 Arizona team.  They were outgained by 42 yards by the Wildcats but were +5 in turnovers.  This Oregon team continues to get too much respect for its upset win at Ohio State.  Oregon just lost leading rusher C.J. Verdell and his 397 yards and 5 TD to a season-ending injury, too.  California always seems to play Oregon tough.  The Bears are 1-1 SU & 2-0 ATS in the last 2 matchups the last 2 seasons.  They won outright 21-17 as 9-point home dogs last year.  The only lost 7-17 as 21.5-point road dogs in 2019.  They have the defense to keep them in this game for 4 quarters.  They need their offense to play like it did at Washington 2 games back when they had 457 yards against a very good Huskies defense in an OT loss.  The Golden Bears are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games as road underdogs.  The Ducks are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games as favorites.  Take California.

7* Georgia Southern/South Alabama NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on UNDER 51

The Key: Two teams that love to run the football and are both good against the run square off in this Sun Belt showdown Thursday night.  The clock will be moving constantly to help aid in cashing this UNDER.  Georgia Southern averages 47 rushing attempts per game and only 23 passing.  South Alabama averages 40 rushing attempts per game and only 30 passing.  Georgia Southern is holding opponents to 150 RYPG, while South Alabama is holding foes to 121 RYPG.  The UNDER is 2-0 in the 2 matchups between these teams the last 2 years with 41 and 37 combined points scored.  The UNDER is 18-7-1 in Jaguars last 26 games overall.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Jaguars last 7 home games.  The UNDER is 8-1 in Jaguars last 9 games on grass.  We've seen 51 or fewer combined points in 7 of the 11 games played between these teams this year.  Take the UNDER.

6* App State/Louisiana Sun Belt *CA$H COW* on Louisiana +5

The Key: I like the price we are getting on Louisiana as a home underdog to Appalachian State tonight.  The money has poured in on the Mountaineers as they have been bet up from -1 to -5.  It's now time to take the points with the Rajin' Cajuns.  They certainly don't have as good of numbers as the Mountaineers this year, but they have kind of been going through the motions against some mediocre teams.  I know we'll get the Rajin' Cajuns 'A' game tonight, and it will be good enough to cover this 5-point spread.  The Mountaineers are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games after yielding fewer than 20 points in their previous game.  The Mountaineers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 against a team with a winning record.  Appalachian State is 5-11 ATS in its last 16 games as a favorite.  The Rajin' Cajuns are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games as underdogs.  Take Louisiana.

6* Memphis/Tulsa AAC *CA$H COW* on Tulsa -3

The Key: Tulsa will put its best foot forward Saturday with its season on the line after a 1-4 start.  The Golden Hurricane deserve better as they had both Oklahoma State and Ohio State on the ropes late in the 4th quarter on the road.  Those 2 efforts showed their potential.  And that potential will be unleashed here against a down Memphis team that is coming off 2 straight upset losses to UTSA and Temple.  The Golden Hurricane are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games after a game where they forced one or fewer turnovers.  The Tigers are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games as road underdogs.  Tulsa is 22-8 ATS in its last 30 against a team with a winning record.  The Golden Hurricane are 22-8-1 ATS in their last 31 games off an ATS loss.  Take Tulsa.

7* Pac-12 Game of the Month on Utah +3

The Key: The Utah Utes are coming off their bye week and have had time to put the distractions and the poor start behind them.  Look for them to put their best foot forward against USC Saturday.  Utah is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games off a conference win.  The Utes are 35-16-1 ATS in their last 52 games as road dogs.  Utah is 46-22-2 ATS in its last 70 games as a dog.  The Utes are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 October games.  Take Utah.

6* UTSA/WKU Conference USA *CA$H COW* on Western Kentucky -3

The Key: Western Kentucky has gone through the gauntlet the last 3 weeks with competitive losses to Army by 3, Indiana by 2 and Michigan State by 17.  This is actually a step down in class despite the fact that UTSA is 5-0.  The Roadrunners are 5-0 against a very weak schedule.  Western Kentucky will test them with a high-octane offense that averages 39 PPG and 521 YPG despite the tough schedule of opposing defenses.  WKU averages 7.6 YPP while UTSA only averages 5.5 YPP on offense.  UTSA does have the better defense at 4.9 YPP compared to 5.8 YPP for WKU, but when you factor in schedule of opposing offenses faced it's actually pretty close.  The 1-3 team is favored over the 5-0 team for good reason in this matchup.  Take Western Kentucky.

6* West Virginia/Baylor Big 12 *CA$H COW* on West Virginia +3

The Key: Baylor is 4-1 but should have lost to Ohio State.  West Virginia is 1-3 but could easily be 5-0 with 3 losses by 6 to Maryland, by 3 to Oklahoma and by 3 to Texas Tech.  Because of this fact, we are getting the Mountaineers at a nice underdog price here despite the fact that they are the better team.  This is a circle the wagons game for the Mountaineers with their season on the line.  Bets against home favorites like Baylor after scoring 14 points or less last game against an opponent that scored 3 points or less in the first half last game are 37-11 ATS over the last 5 years.  Take West Virginia.

6* Michigan State/Rutgers Big Ten *CA$H COW* on Rutgers +5.5

The Key: I like the spot for Rutgers.  They just played 2 of the best teams in the Big Ten in Ohio State and Michigan.  This is a step down in class against Michigan State despite the Spartans being 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS.  They have done it against a weak schedule and are clearly getting too much respect from the books now after the unbeaten start and #11 national ranking.  Rutgers has played the toughest schedule and is only giving up 21.2 PPG and 319 YPG.  They are holding opponents to 82 YPG below their season averages.  Michigan State gives up 429 YPG, allowing 110 YPG more than Rutgers.  So the Scarlet Knights make up for their worse offense than Michigan State with the much better defense.  This line should be closer to PK.  So the price is right to back the Scarlet Knights +5.5 at home.  The Scarlet Knights are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after playing their last game at home.  Rutgers is 6-0 ATS in its last 6 games off an ATS loss.  Take Rutgers.

7* Stanford/Arizona State NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Stanford +13.5

The Key: The Arizona State Sun Devils are starting to get too much love after 2 straight blowout wins over Colorado and UCLA.  They are being asked to win this game by at least 14 points and it's too much.  Stanford has been underrated all season.  They have upset wins over both USC and Oregon, which were expected to be the 2 best teams in the Pac-12 coming into the year.  So they have proven what they are capable of.  And they are more than capable of going on the road and hanging with Arizona State and possibly pulling the upset.  The Cardinal are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 road games.  The Cardinal are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games against a team with a winning record.  The Sun Devils are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games as home favorites.  Take Stanford.

6* Coastal Carolina/Arkansas State NCAAF *Total* Annihilator on OVER 73

The Key: Coastal Carolina puts up 48.2 PPG this year and can name their number against an Arkansas State defense that gives up 45.6 PPG and 563.8 YPG.  The Chanticleers won't take their foot off the gas because this is a National TV standalone game.  Arkansas State is capable of keeping up as they average 32.0 PPG this year and 72 plays per game.  They play at one of the fasted paces in the country.  The OVER is 20-9 in Chanticleers last 29 road games.  The OVER is 8-2 in Chanticleers last 10 games against a team with a losing record.  Take the OVER.

7* NCAAF Non-Conference Game of the Year on Louisiana Tech +19

The Key: The LA Tech Bulldogs are close to being 4-0 despite a brutal schedule.  Their 2 losses are to Mississippi State and SMU by a combined 3 points.  And they had both of them on the ropes with late leads in the 4th quarter.  This couldn't be a worst situation for NC State.  They are feeling fat and happy off their win over Clemson last week.  They won't give the Bulldogs their full attention this week.  The Wolfpack are 0-9 ATS in their last 9 games against good passing teams that average 8 YPA or more.  Take Louisiana Tech.

6* Oregon/Stanford Pac-12 *CA$H COW* on Stanford +8

The Key: The Oregon Ducks are 4-0 this season and getting too much respect from the books because of it.  Their 41-19 win over Arizona last week was very misleading.  They were +5 in turnovers and didn't pull away until late.  They were outgained by 42 yards by the awful Wildcats.  Stanford has shown me enough the last 3 weeks to know they can hang here.  The Cardinal pulled the 42-28 upset at USC, then went on the road and won 41-23 at Vanderbilt.  They did lose by 11 at home to UCLA, but I like the fact that they are home again here for a 2nd straight week.  They were a tired team from all the travel going into that UCLA game.  The Ducks are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as favorites.  Take Stanford.

6* Nevada/Boise State MWC *CA$H COW* on Nevada +5

The Key: Nevada has 2 full weeks to get ready for Boise State.  The Wolf Pack are a serious contender in the Mountain West and will prove that Saturday.  Boise State's numbers have not been good this season.  They are 2-2 and getting outgained by nearly 50 YPG.  Their 27-3 win over Utah State last week was very misleading as Utah State managed just 3 points despite 435 yards.  The Wolf Pack are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games as dogs.  Nevada is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games off an ATS loss.  The Broncos are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games off a win.  Take Nevada.

7* NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Iowa -3

The Key: The Iowa Hawkeyes are 4-0 this season behind an elite defense that is one of the best in the country.  And defense clearly travels, so I like Iowa to cover this short 3-point spread on the road at Maryland tonight.  The Hawkeyes are giving up just 11.0 PPG and 271.5 YPG while forcing 9 turnovers in 4 games.  These teams have a common opponent in Kent State.  Iowa only gave up 264 yards to Kent State.  Maryland allowed 458 yards to the Golden Flashes.  While Iowa has already played two Top 25 teams in Indiana and Iowa State, Maryland has feasted on a weak schedule during its 4-0 start.  The Hawkeyes are more battle-tested and will get the job done here.  The Hawkeyes are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games as road favorites.  The Terrapins are 9-27 ATS in their last 36 games off a win.  Maryland is 7-20 ATS in its last 27 vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Iowa.

6* Indiana/Western Kentucky NCAAF *CA$H COW* on Western Kentucky +9.5

The Key: Indiana remains overrated with a 28-point loss at Iowa and a 14-point home loss to Cincinnati.  Western Kentucky is underrated, nearly upsetting Army in their last game.  And the Hilltoppers now have a bye week to get ready for the Hoosiers, who will be reeling from that Cincinnati loss last week.  Senior QB Bailey Zappe has already thrown for 859 yards and 10 touchdowns in 2 games for the Hilltoppers.  Take Western Kentucky.

6* Akron/Ohio State NCAAF *CA$H COW* on Akron +49.5

The Key: The Akron Zips face a poor Ohio State defense that is allowing 471 YPG this year.  QB Demarcus Irons had a huge game last week accounting for 432 total yards and 4 touchdowns as a dual-threat.  The Buckeyes will be without their starting QB in CJ Stroud for this game.  Underdogs of at least 49 points in a matchup of 2 FBS teams are 12-1 ATS in their last 13 tries dating back to 1996.  Take Akron.

6* Saturday NCAAF *Total* Annihilator on Tennessee/Florida OVER 63

The Key: Josh Heupel brought his up-tempo offense from UCF with him to Tennessee.  Dan Mullen is also an up-tempo guy.  This game has offensive fireworks written all over it.  Florida has put up 35 points on FAU, 42 against USF and 29 against Alabama while averaging 74 plays per game and 553 YPG.  Tennessee is scoring 42.7 PPG this season and running 78 plays per game.  The OVER is 6-0 in Gators last 6 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Take the OVER.

7* SEC Game of the Month on South Carolina +5.5

The Key: The South Carolina Gamecocks are underrated this season.  They are 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS and just played Georgia last week in a cover.  Now they get to host Kentucky, which will be playing its first road game of the year.  The Wildcats weren't impressive in their 7-point home win over Missouri or their 5-point home win as a 31-point favorite against UT-Chattanooga last week.  They barely escaped with victory over that bad FCS team, and they shouldn't be road favorites here against the Gamecocks.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 matchups.  Take South Carolina.

6* UCLA/Stanford Pac-12 *CA$H COW* on Stanford +5

The Key: The Stanford Cardinal backed up their 42-28 upset win as 17-point dogs at USC with a 41-23 road win as 12.5-point favorites at Vanderbilt in a tricky spot last week.  Inserting Tanner McKee into the starting QB role against USC has made all the difference for this team.  He is completing 71.4% of his passes for 570 yards with 5 TD's and zero INT's.  Stanford is 12-1 SU & 10-2-1 ATS in its last 13 matchups with UCLA.  Take Stanford.

7* NCAAF Friday Night Lights on UNLV +30.5

The Key: The Fresno State Bulldogs are in the ultimate letdown spot tonight.  They just upset UCLA late Saturday night in a 40-37 win as 10.5-point dogs.  That was one of the most exciting, back-and-forth games of the season.  QB Jake Haener played through an injury and just kept coming in one of the most remarkable games you will ever see by a quarterback.  He had to basically be carried off the field and cannot be 100%.  Look for the Bulldogs to be cautious with him.  They just won't be able to get up for UNLV.  This is actually a step down in competition for UNLV after facing Arizona State and Iowa State the last 2 weeks.  The Rebels are expected to get back QB Doug Brumfield after he missed the last 2 games with injury.  He played well in the opener against Eastern Washington with 117 passing yards and 9.0 YPA as well as 27 rushing yards and a score.  The Rebels only lost that game 33-35 (OT) as 2.5-point dogs against one of the best teams in FCS.  Fresno State has only won one of its last 10 matchups with the Rebels by more than 29 points.  Take UNLV.

7* Marshall/App State NCAAF *Total* Annihilator on OVER 59

The Key: Marshall is a dead nuts OVER team this year.  They average 43.7 PPG and 603.7 YPG on offense and run 80 plays per game.  Appalachian State's offense will have no problem keeping up with them as they average 33.3 PPG and 446.3 YPG along with 68 plays per game.  Marshall just scored 80 combined points with East Carolina last game and gave up 553 yards to a mediocre Pirates offense.  The OVER is 21-5 in Thundering Herd last 26 non-conference games.  The OVER is 6-1 in Thundering Herd last 7 September games.  Take the OVER.

6* Oklahoma State/Boise State NCAAF *BAILOUT* on Boise State -3

The Key: Oklahoma State is fortunate to be 2-0 SU despite being a 38-point favorite in a 23-16 win over Missouri State and a 10.5-point favorite in a 28-23 win over Tulsa.  They needed 21 points in the 4th quarter to beat Tulsa.  This team just isn't very good, and they have all kinds of injury problems on offense at receiver and along the offensive line.  Even QB Spencer Sanders is playing through injury and cannot be trusted in a hostile road environment here at Boise State to not turn the ball over.  Boise only lost 31-36 at UCF before crushing UTEP 54-13 last Friday.  Now they have had an extra day to get ready for this game against the Cowboys and will be amped up with a Big 12 team coming to the Blue Turf.  The Cowboys are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games overall.  The Broncos are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as home favorites.  Take Boise State.

6* Stanford/Vanderbilt NCAAF *CA$H COW* on Vanderbilt +12

The Key: The Stanford Cardinal are in a letdown spot after upsetting USC last week.  Now they step outside the Pac-12 here against Vanderbilt before having to play UCLA and Oregon the next 2 weeks.  Stanford lost 24-7 to Kansas State in the opener and that result seems to be forgotten here with this line.  Vanderbilt upset Colorado State 24-21 on the road last week and improved as much as anyone from Week 1 to Week 2.  The number is just too high here in a game that is likely to be decided by one score either way.  Bets on home dogs that allowed 5.5 YPC or more last game against an opponent that has allowed 5.5 YPC or more in 2 straight games are 26-5 ATS since 1992.  Take Vanderbilt.

7* NCAAF Game of the Week on Utah -8.5

The Key: Kyle Whittingham called out his team after losing the line of scrimmage to BYU in their upset loss last week.  Look for his players to respond here, and for the Utes to put it on the San Diego State Aztecs.  San Diego State will be without starting QB Jordan Brookshire after he was knocked out of the Arizona game last week.  The Aztecs have played a weak schedule of New Mexico State and Arizona thus far, so this is a big step up in competition.  San Diego State was actually outgained by New Mexico State in their opener.  That's a New Mexico State team that lost 30-3 to UTEP and 34-25 to New Mexico.  Whittingham is 22-7 ATS after a game where his team forced zero turnovers as the coach of Utah.  The Utes are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 against Mountain West teams.  Utah is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last 5 matchups with four of the wins coming by 16 points or more.  Take Utah.

6* Tulsa/Ohio State NCAAF *CA$H COW* on Tulsa +25

The Key: Tulsa had a bunch of key players suspended when they were upset by Cal Davis in their opener.  They got those players back last week against Oklahoma State and played more like their true selves.  They only lost 23-28 as 10.5-point dogs after giving up 21 points in the 4th quarter to the Cowboys, nearly pulling the upset.  They have the belief that they can hang with Ohio State, which cannot stop anyone.  They gave up 31 points to a bad Minnesota offense in their opener and gave up 35 points and 505 yards to Oregon last week in their upset loss.  Their problems on defense just aren't fixable in one week.  Tulsa has a great defense of its own that was one of the best in the AAC last year and has almost everyone back this year.  The Golden Hurricane are 28-11 ATS in their last 39 road games, including 6-0 ATS in road games over the last 2 years.  The Buckeyes are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games.  Take Tulsa.

6* Nebraska/Oklahoma NCAAF *CA$H COW* on Nebraska +22.5

The Key: Nebraska should be 3-0.  They gave the game away in the opener against Illinois with turnovers and mistakes.  But they have responded well with back-to-back wins and covers in a 52-7 win over Fordham and a 28-3 win over Buffalo.  They can hang with Oklahoma, which let Tulane nearly upset them in the opener in a 40-35 win as 31-point favorites.  The Sooners just can't get enough stops defensively to trust them to cover this big of a number.  Adrian Martinez is playing the best football of his career and is a veteran QB who can keep the Huskers in this game.  Take Nebraska.

7* NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Illinois +7

The Key: I like the price we are getting on Illinois tonight as 7-point dogs to Maryland.  We are getting this price because Illinois is coming off two bad losses in a row to UTSA and Virginia.  But keep in mind that Illinois upset Nebraska at home in their opener with a healthy Brandon Peters at quarterback.  Peters left that game and hasn't returned since.  But Peters is now back this week and will give the offense a spark.  I think Maryland is overrated off a 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS start that included a win against Howard.  The other win was gift-wrapped to them by West Virginia who lost the turnover battle 4-0 in a 30-24 win by the Terrapins.  The Fighting Illini will put up a much better fight than they have the last 2 weeks in this standalone home game in front of a good crowd and with Peters back under center.  Bets on home dogs of 3.5 to 10 points after allowing 6.25 YPP or more last game that has 8 or more offensive starters including their QB returning in the first month of the season are 23-5 ATS since 1992.  Take Illinois.

6* Ohio/Louisiana NCAAF *CA$H COW* on Ohio +21

The Key: This line would have been closer to a touchdown coming into the season, so the price is right to back Ohio off 2 straight upset losses to Syracuse and Duquesne.  The betting public wants nothing to do with this team now, which is why we are catching 3 touchdowns.  But Louisiana hasn't been any more impressive, losing by 20 as 8.5-point dogs at Texas and only beating Nicholls State by 3 as 25.5-point favorites last week.  They allowed over 500 yards to Nicholls State.  The Bobcats are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games as underdogs.  The Bobcats are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 Thursday games.  Take Ohio.

6* Washington/Michigan NCAAF *CA$H COW* on Washington +7

The Key: I like the price we are getting on Washington after an upset loss to Montana last week.  Montana is one of the best FCS teams in the country.  The Huskies gave the game away being -3 in turnovers.  Their defense is elite and held Montana to 232 total yards.  And their defense is good enough to keep this game with Michigan competitive.  The Wolverines are getting some respect now after blowing out Western Michigan 47-14 last week.  This will be a much stiffer challenge for them, especially now that they lost their best receiver in Ronnie Bell to a knee injury last week.  Washington is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 road games after a game with a turnover margin of -3 or worse.  Michigan is 32-51 ATS in its last 83 games as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points.  The Wolverines are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games against Pac-12 teams.  Take Washington.

6* Saturday NCAAF *Total* Annihilator on Missouri/Kentucky UNDER 57

The Key: The UNDER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings between Kentucky and Missouri.  They have combined for 56 or fewer points in 6 of those 7 matchups.  The last three have been very low scoring with combined scores of 30, 36 and 29 points.  The UNDER is 21-8 in Tigers last 29 games overall.  The UNDER is 7-1 in Tigers last 8 road games.  The UNDER is 19-7 in Wildcats last 26 conference games.  Take the UNDER.

6* Texas A&M/Colorado NCAAF *CA$H COW* on Texas A&M -16.5

The Key: The Texas A&M Aggies are loaded this year under Jimbo Fisher.  They finished as the #4 ranked team in the country last season and brought back 15 starters, including 9 on defense.  That defense held Kent State to just 10 points and 336 total yards last week, and that's a Kent State offense that has an NFL QB and is one of the best offenses in the country.  They also scored 41 points and freshman starter Haynes King got his feet wet.  He should be much sharper this week against Colorado.  The Buffaloes won their opener 35-7 as 38-point favorites over Northern Colorado.  The Buffaloes had terrible QB play and lost starter Sam Noyer to the transfer portal.  Brandon Lewis went 10 of 15 passing for 102 yards against Northern Colorado.  I think when the Buffaloes fall behind big early they aren't going to be able to play catch up.  They have one of the worst QB situations in the country.  Tennessee transfer JT Shrout was expected to start this season but is out with a knee injury.  Lewis is a good runner but very inaccurate with his throws.  Bets on favorites of 10.5 to 21 points after one or more consecutive wins in the first month of the season after closing last season with three or more consecutive wins are 27-6 ATS over the last 10 years.  Fisher is 9-1 ATS in non-conference games at Texas A&M.  The Aggies are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 non-conference games.  Take Texas A&M.

7* NCAAF Game of the Week on Middle Tennessee +20

The Key: Middle Tennessee is primed to be one of the most improved teams in the country this year.  16th-year head coach Rick Stockstill brought back 19 starters and added in NC State transfer Bailey Hockman at quarterback.  The Blue Raiders won their opener 50-15 over Monmouth as an 8.5-point favorite.  That was a quality FCS team that came into the season ranked 13th in the country.  Hockman went 17-of-22 passing for 215 yards and three touchdowns in the win.  This is a letdown spot for Virginia Tech coming off a big upset win over North Carolina in the opener last week.  The Hokies took advantage of three UNC turnovers in a 17-10 win.  Their offense is a problem with just 296 total yards against a weak UNC defense.  And they are going to have a hard time covering this big number with their offense.  Hockman and company can keep up with them on the scoreboard.  And don't be surprised if the Hokies are flat off that upset win, and with a game against West Virginia on deck.  The Blue Raiders are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as underdogs.  The Hokies are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games off a win.  Take Middle Tennessee.

6* Tulsa/Oklahoma State NCAAF *CA$H COW* on Tulsa +13

The Key: Tulsa went 6-3 last year and only lost 24-27 to Cincinnati in the AAC Championship Game.  Their other 2 losses came by 9 at Oklahoma State and by 2 to Mississippi State in the Armed Forces Bowl.  There was a brawl at the end of that game that led to some key suspensions for the Golden Hurricane for their opener against Cal Davis.  That's a big reason they were upset 17-19 as 23.5-point favorites.  But those players are back this week and this is a strong team that returns 18 starters from last year.  They will give the Cowboys another run for their money, just as they did in their matchup last year.  Oklahoma State was unimpressive in its opener, too.  The Cowboys only beat Missouri State 23-16 as 38-point favorites.  Asking them to come back and win by 2 touchdowns against this quality Tulsa team is asking a lot.  The Golden Hurricane are 27-11 ATS in their last 38 road games, including 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games.  Take Tulsa.

7* NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Kansas +26.5

The Key: The Kansas Jayhawks had one of the best hires of the offseason by bringing in Lance Leipold from Buffalo.  He took the Bulls to 2 MAC title games the past 3 seasons and previously went 109-6 at D-3 Wisconsin-Whitewater.  He is one of the best up and coming head coaches in the country.  Les Miles didn't leave the cupboard bare as he has 16 returning starters and Miles recruited as well as he could have to Kansas.  The Jayhawks went 0-9 last year, so the fact that they finally won a game even though it was against South Dakota in the opener is a big step in the right direction.  It will give these players some confidence moving forward.  Now they face an overrated Coastal Carolina team that nearly went undefeated last year.  Because of that, you are paying a tax to back Coastal Carolina.  Keep in mind Kansas was a 4.5-point home favorite against Coastal Carolina last year and is now a 26.5-point underdog this year, a 31-point adjustment.  Kansas lost that game 23-38, but they outgained Coastal 367 to 318 for the game.  But they were -3 in turnovers which was the difference.  I just think the price is right to back the Jayhawks here as they stay within 4 touchdowns of the Chanticleers.  Take Kansas.

7* Louisville/Ole Miss NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Ole Miss -9

The Key: There's a lot to like about Ole Miss this year coming off a 5-5 season in which they took Alabama to the wire and beat Indiana in their bowl game.  The Rebels have an elite offense that put up 39.2 PPG and 556 YPG last year.  They have 8 starters back on offense and QB Matt Corral.  They have 9 starters back on defense and will be improved there.  Louisville went 4-7 last year with its 4 wins all coming in the role of the favorite against overmatched teams like WKU, Syracuse, Florida State and Wake.  Only 13 starters return for the Cardinals and they lose all of their big playmakers on offense, which is going to make it hard for them to keep up with Ole Miss on the scoreboard in a shootout in this one.  The Rebels will get their points.  Take Ole Miss.

7* Notre Dame/FSU NCAAF *Total* Annihilator on OVER 55

The Key: Florida State and Notre Dame played last year with the Fighting Irish winning 42-26 for 68 combined points.  This rematch should sail OVER the number.  Florida State's defense is not very good after giving up 36 PPG last year and 7 starters back on D this year.  But the Seminoles will have their best offense in years in Mike Norvell's 2nd season.  He led the high-powered offenses at Memphis going 38-15 in his 4 years there including a New Year's 6 Bowl in 2019 before coming here.  McKenzie Milton comes over from UCF to give him his next great quarterback.  And he has 10 returning starters on offense to work with.  Notre Dame will be better than expected on offense this year despite all they lost.  They will also be weaker on defense this year, and that's even after giving up 31 or more points in 4 of their final 6 games.  Take the OVER.

6* Utah State/Washington State NCAAF *BAILOUT* on Utah State +17.5

The Key: Utah State went from 11-2 in 2018 to 7-6 in 2019 and just 1-5 last year.  Gary Andersen was clearly not the answer over the last 2 seasons.  Enter Blake Anderson, who comes over from Arkansas State after leading the Red Wolves to 6 bowls in the past 7 seasons.  He brings with him some elite transfers from the Red Wolves in QB Logan Bonner, first-team All-Sun Belt LB Justin Rice and WR Brandon Browning.  He inherits some good talent with 19 returning starters as well, so this isn't a rebuilding year.  I do think Washington State is also a team on the rise, but this line is too high for Week 1.  The Cougars went 1-3 in Nick Rolovich's first season with their only win coming against lowly Oregon State in their opener.  The three losses all came by 14 points or more.  Take Utah State.

6* Saturday NCAAF *Total* Annihilator on NMSU/SDSU UNDER 51

The Key: New Mexico State is clearly going to have problems offensively this season.  They managed just 3 points and 190 total yards in their 30-3 loss to UTEP last week.  And that's a pretty bad UTEP defense.  San Diego State has one of the best defenses in the country year in and year out.  The Aztecs will be great on that side of the ball this season after giving up 17.89 PPG last year and 12.7 PPG in 2019.  They have 8 starters back on D.  The problem with the Aztecs is they never have a good offense.  They have averaged 24.6 PPG or fewer in 3 straight seasons.  They like to run the ball, control the clock and rely on defense to win games.  San Diego State beat New Mexico State 31-10 in their last matchup in 2019 with a similar total of 50.5.  The Aztecs are 9-1 UNDER in their last 10 home games.  The Aztecs are 9-1 UNDER in their last 10 games as a home favorite of 21.5 or more.  The UNDER is 10-1 in Aztecs last 11 games against Independent teams.  The UNDER is 17-3 in Aztecs last 20 games overall.  Take the UNDER.

6* Saturday NCAAF *UPSET SPECIAL* on UTSA +5

The Key: The Illinois Fighting Illini pulled the upset over the Nebraska Cornhuskers in their opener last week.  But they lost starting QB Brandon Peters, and now they'll be going with backup Art Sitkowski, who was terrible at Rutgers before coming here.  And Nebraska basically gave that game away.  Now Illinois is in a letdown spot facing UTSA, a team from Conference USA.  But this is one of the best teams in Conference USA and fully capable of pulling the upset.  The Roadrunners went 7-5 last year with one of their losses coming at BYU by just 7 points, and that was one of the best teams in the country last year.  They also only lost by 7 to Louisiana (11-1) in their bowl game.  The Roadrunners have 21 returning starters and are absolutely loaded.  They didn't have a single spring practice last year and now they get a full spring to get better in Jeff Traylor's 2nd season.  The Roadrunners are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 road games.  UTSA is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games as a road dog.  The Fighting Illini are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.  Take UTSA.

6* SJSU/USC NCAAF *CA$H COW* on San Jose State +14

The Key: San Jose State won the underrated Mountain West Conference last year.  They return 19 starters from that team including QB Nick Starkel, who is an absolute stud.  10 starters are back on defense from a unit that allowed just 19.9 PPG last year.  USC is getting a lot of hype this year after going 5-1 last year.  But 3 of those wins came by 5 points or less so they were fortunate to have that record.  And I'm just not sold on the Trojans yet until I see them live up to expectations.  San Jose State can give them a run for their money here in the opener.  I like that the Spartans have a game under their belt, winning 45-14 over Southern Utah as a 25.5-point favorite.  That will give them an edge here.  The Spartans are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games as road dogs.  The Trojans are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 non-conference games.  Take San Jose State.

7* Fresno/Oregon NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Fresno State +20.5

The Key: The Fresno State Bulldogs looked great in their 45-0 win over Connecticut.  The had 538 yards of offense and will be great on that side of the ball again this year.  They gave up just 107 yards on defense and will be improved there as well.  Oregon did give up 28.3 PPG and 406 YPG last year and won't be great defensively, especially with all the players they are missing in their secondary for the opener.  Anthony Brown is a downgrade at QB now that Tyler Shough left.  Oregon will be good this year, but they are now 3 touchdowns better than this tough Fresno State team from an underrated Mountain West Conference.  The Bulldogs are 35-17-2 ATS in their last 54 games, including 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Pac-12 games.  Take Fresno State.

7* NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Duke -6.5

The Key: The Duke Blue Devils are flying under the radar coming into the 2021 season.  That's because they went just 2-9 last season.  But they were much better than their record.  Amazingly, the Blue Devils finished -19 in turnover differential last year.  It can only get better this year with improved QB play as Chase Brice transferred and was a turnover machine.  One of Duke's win last year came against this same Charlotte team as they blew them out of the building, 53-19.  Now they are just being asked to cover a 6.5-point here and win by a TD or more to cover.  I certainly like the price.  Charlotte went 2-4 last year with its only wins coming against North Texas and UTEP.  Three losses came by 15 points or more.  The 49ers only have 5 starters back on defense and should get picked apart on that side of the field this season.  Take Duke.

7* Thursday NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on East Carolina +10

The Key: The East Carolina Pirates were much better than their 3-6 record last year.  They got robby against Tulsa by the refs the week after losing to Navy by 4.  But they played their best football of the season the last 2 games beating Temple by 25 and upsetting SMU outright by 14 as 12-point dogs.  That gives them a lot of momentum heading into 2021.  Now they have a whopping 20 starters back and a veteran QB in Holton Ahlers who will be starting for a 3rd straight year.  It is head coach Mike Houston's 3rd season here and it is his best team by far.  Appalachian State took a step back in Shawn Clark's first season last year with a 9-3 record.  The 9 wins were all against bad teams, and they lost to the best teams they faced in Louisiana, Coastal Carolina and Marshall.  The Mountaineers will be starting a new QB this year in Duke transfer Chase Brice.  I just think it's asking a lot of them to win this game by double-digits in their opener against what will be a much improved ECU team from the AAC.  It is also on a neutral field in Charlotte and not a true home game for App State, which is big because they've had such a huge home-field advantage through the years.  Take East Carolina.

6* Saturday NCAAF *CA$H COW* on UConn +28

The Key: I like the price on the UConn Huskies catching 4 touchdowns today to the Fresno State Bulldogs.  Nobody wants to bet on UConn because they sat out last season.  So we're buying at a bargain in Week 1.  The Huskies do have 14 starters back and this should be the best team that Randy Edsall has had since he returned to Connecticut.  Edsall said during a normal football season your team does not get bigger and stronger, but the Huskies were able to do that last fall.  They had 25 practices and 3-4 weight sessions per week.  They also had 12 spring practices and 91 players available.  Fresno went 3-3 last year with its 3 wins coming against the bottom feeders of the Mountain West in UNLV, Utah State and Colorado State.  They didn't win any of those games by more than 21 points.  Asking them to win by more than 4 touchdowns here is asking a lot.  Take UConn.

7* Ohio State/Alabama NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Alabama -8.5

The Key: The Alabama Crimson Tide are going to go down as one of the best teams in college football history.  They have an elite defense as always, giving up 19 PPG.  But their offense is a record-setting one that will continue to pile on the points against Ohio State.  The Crimson Tide average 48.2 PPG and 535 YPG this year as they have outscored their foes by 29.2 PPG on the season.  And they have let up in the 2nd half of most their games.  They won't let up against the Buckeyes after seeing what they did to Clemson last week.  That was an aberration as the Buckeyes managed just 22 points against Northwestern in the Big Ten Championship the week prior.  Clemson just allowed receivers to get behind them the entire game, which was a terrible strategy.  I trust Nick Saban to make the proper adjustments defensively.  And the weakness of this Ohio State defense is their secondary, which allowed 491 passing yards to Indiana and 400 more to Clemson.  That's bad news going up against Mac Jones, Devonta Smith and perhaps Jaylen Waddle returning.  The Buckeyes are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after yielding more than 280 passing yards in their last game.  The Crimson Tide are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 against Big Ten opponents.  The Crimson Tide are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games off an ATS loss.  Take Alabama.

7* UNC/Texas A&M NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Texas A&M -7

The Key: Texas A&M just completed a dominant 8-1 season in which they proved they were one of the best teams in college football.  Their lone loss came to Alabama, which could be the best team in college football history.  And now the Aggies want to punctuate their season.  They don't have anyone really opting out for this one, and it's a senior-led team.  And they'll be up against a UNC team from a weak ACC conference that has almost all of their best players opting out and getting ready for the NFL draft.  Their top NFL prospect on defense and leading tackler Surratt is out.  They are without 2-time 1,000-yard receiver Brown, plus two 1,000-yard rushers in Carter and Williams.  QB Sam Howell might as well opt out as well with all the weapons he is missing.  It will go about as well for him as it did for Kyle Trask and Florida when they got blasted by Oklahoma earlier this week.  The Aggies are 20-9-1 ATS in their last 30 games as favorites.  Texas A&M is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 non-conference games.  Take Texas A&M.

6* Oregon/Iowa State NCAAF *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 58.5

The Key: The Iowa State Cyclones are one of the best defensive teams in the country, and certainly one of the best defensive teams in the Big 12.  They have held their last 4 opponents to an average of just 13.3 PPG which is extremely impressive when you consider 2 of those teams were Oklahoma and Texas.  Now they will shut down an Oregon offense that was just held to 243 total yards by a bad USC defense.  They were also held to 17 points by Cal the week before.  I think Oregon's defense is good enough to limit Iowa State here as well.  The Ducks have held 3 of their 6 opponents this season to 24 points or fewer.  The UNDER is 9-0-1 in Iowa State's last 10 neutral site games, including 7-0-1 in their last 8 bowl games.  The UNDER is 36-14-2 in Cyclones last 52 games as a favorite.  The UNDER is 20-5-1 in Cyclones last 26 vs. a team with a winning record.  Take the UNDER.

6* Kentucky/NC State NCAAF *CA$H COW* on Kentucky -2.5

The Key: We'll side with the SEC over the ACC in this bowl game.  It has been a bad look for the ACC so far with Miami losing to Oklahoma State and Wake Forest losing to Wisconsin.  And we know that Kentucky played a much tougher schedule in the SEC than NC State did in the ACC.  The Wildcats only went 4-6, but the 6 losses came to teams that were .500 or better with the exception of Ole Miss, who was 4-5 and gave Alabama all they could handle.  And 3 losses were to 3 of the best teams in the SEC in Alabama, Florida and Georgia.  NC State is a team the Wildcats can handle.  NC State is a fraudulent 8-3.  They only beat one Power 5 team with a winning record, which was 6-5 Pittsburgh.  They struggled winning their final 3 games over the season over Liberty, Syracuse and Georgia Tech as all 3 games were decided by 10 points or fewer.  Kentucky's strength of schedule was 21st while NC State's was 65th.  The Wildcats are 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last 3 bowl games under Mark Stoops with 2 upset victories over Penn State and VA Tech as well as a 1-point loss to Northwestern as a 7-point dog.  This is a senior-led team that will want to post their 3rd straight bowl win and go out as one of the most accomplished classes in program history.  The Wildcats are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games against teams that average 60 or more penalty yards per game.  NC State is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 against good rushing teams that average 4.75 YPC or more.  The Wildcats will have the edge at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball with a big talent advantage in the trenches.  The Wolfpack are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games off a conference home win.  Take Kentucky.

7* Notre Dame/Alabama NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Alabama -19.5

The Key: The Notre Dame Fighting Irish keep coming up short in big games.  It happened against in the ACC Championship when they lost 10-34 to Clemson.  And that game was every bit the blowout it seemed as Clemson outgained Notre Dame 541 to 263.  And it will be more of the same here against Alabama.  This may be the best Alabama team we've ever seen as they are outscoring opponents by 30.2 PPG this season.  They definitely have their best offense of the Saban era at 49.7 PPG.  And the Crimson Tide have outscored their opponents 131-47 in their last 4 playoff semifinal games.  They beat Notre Dame 42-14 in their last playoff matchup.  Ian Book isn't good enough to keep up with Mac Jones and company.  The Fighting Irish have allowed over 200 rushing yards in 2 straight games coming in, so the Crimson Tide should be able to run the ball when they need to late to keep margin.  Alabama is 7-0 ATS in its last 7 games off an ATS loss.  The Crimson Tide are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall.  Take Alabama.

7* Ball State/San Jose State NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Ball State +10

The Key: The San Jose State Spartans were undervalued all season.  They went 7-0 SU & 6-0-1 ATS this year en route to winning the Mountain West title.  They beat Boise State in the Championship Game.  This team was an underdog in 4 of their 7 games this season and won them all outright.  But now the Spartans are getting respect heading into this bowl game due to those perfect records both SU and ATS.  And asking them to win by 10-plus points to cover this number against Ball State is asking too much.  I don't see the Spartans being too excited to face a MAC opponent in their bowl game as I think they feel they deserved a better bowl game.  They will be content with their season no matter what happens here.  Ball State has been a different team since losing a fluky game to Miami Ohio in the opener.  The Cardinals have gone 6-0 SU & 4-2 ATS since while beating the best teams the MAC had to offer in Toledo, Central Michigan, Western Michigan and Buffalo.  Their outright 38-28 win over Buffalo as a 12-point dog showed what they are capable of.  And now the Cardinals will feel disrespected again as big dogs in their bowl game and will be playing with a chip on their shoulder.  No question the Cardinals have the better quarterback here, which is why they will never be out of this game.  Drew Plitt is one of the more underrated quarterbacks in the country.  He completed 65.8% of his passes for 1,947 yards with 16 TD and only 6 INT this season.  And this Ball State defense got better down the stretch, holding each of its final five opponents to 28 points or fewer.  This is a senior-laden Cardinals team that wants a bowl win desperately.  They haven't been to a bowl since 2013 and the program is 0-7 all-time in bowls.  They have a chance to make history here and I wouldn't be surprised at all if they win this game outright.  Take Ball State.

7* Florida/Oklahoma NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Oklahoma -6.5

The Key: The Oklahoma Sooners have gone 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall en route to yet another Big 12 title.  And while the Sooners will be almost at full strength for this one, the Florida Gators will not be.  The writing is pretty much on the wall that the Gators don't care about this game after losing to Alabama in the SEC Championship.  They will be without each of their top 4 receivers with 3 opt outs and one due to COVID.  And they will be missing several other key players as well as they prepare for the NFL Draft.  The Sooners should make easy work of the Gators in this game even if Kyle Trask decides to play.  He won't have anyone to throw the ball to.  This Florida defense has allowed an average of 511.5 YPG and 44.5 PPG in back to back losses to LSU and Alabama.  The Sooners should be able to name their score.  Take Oklahoma.

7* Oklahoma State/Miami NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Miami +1

The Key: The wrong team is favored in this matchup.  Miami is getting docked too much from a 62-26 loss to UNC in the season finale that put a bad taste in their mouths heading into the bowl season.  The Hurricanes still finished 8-2 with their other loss to Clemson.  Oklahoma State is getting too much respect for its 42-3 win over Baylor in the season finale.  That was a Baylor team coming off a tough loss to Oklahoma and they just failed to show up.  Remember the Cowboys went 2-3 SU & 0-5 ATS in their previous 5 games and had been very overrated.  They only beat Kansas State by 2 and Texas Tech by 6 for their 2 wins during that stretch and lost by 28 to Oklahoma.  The news that D'Eriq King announced he is coming back next year at QB for Miami has energized this team.  And they want to make amends for an upset loss to LA Tech in their bowl game last year.  They will be hungry for a win and we should see the best version of Miami because of it, which should be good enough to beat Oklahoma State.  The Hurricanes are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.  Take Miami.

7* NCAAF Bowl Game of the Year on Georgia State -3.5

The Key: Conference USA is 0-3 in bowl games this year through Wednesday and has been outscored by a combined 78 points in those 3 defeats.  Now it's Western Kentucky's turn to get blasted.  The Hilltoppers went 5-6 this year with their 5 wins coming against either FCS opponents or teams that won 3 games or fewer.  The 4 C-USA teams they beat have a combined 8-22 record this year.  WKU had the worst offense in all of C-USA this season at 18.8 PPG.  Appalachian State beat North Texas 56-28 and Georgia Southern beat LA Tech 38-3 in a pair of Sun Belt vs. C-USA matchups already this bowl season.  Georgia State only lost to App State 17-13 and beat Georgia Southern 30-24.  The Panthers average 32.7 PPG this year and will have a huge edge on offense in this matchup.  This should be another Sun Belt over C-USA blowout Saturday.  Take Georgia State.

7* Marshall/Buffalo NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Buffalo -5

The Key: The Buffalo Bulls went undefeated in the regular season before falling to Ball State in the MAC Championship.  Their numbers have been dominant all year as they average 47.8 PPG and give up just 23.8 PPG.  And now they take on a team from Conference USA in Marshall.  Conference USA is 0-3 in bowl games this year and has been outscored by a combined 78 points in those 3 defeats.  That's bad news for a Marshall team that has averaged just 6.5 PPG in losing its last 2 games to Rice (20-0) and UAB (13-22).  Marshall went 7 straight quarters without scoring a single point over those 2 games before getting 13 points in garbage time in the 4th quarter against UAB.  Marshall QB Wells has completed just 45% of his passes over the last 2 games with 2 touchdowns and 5 interceptions.  Marshall will be without leading rusher RB Knox, leading tackler LB Beckett and top offensive lineman G Ball as they all try and get ready for the NFL.  Buffalo is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games.  Marshall is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games off a loss.  Take Buffalo.

7* Hawaii/Houston NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Hawaii +9.5

The Key: The Hawaii Rainbow Warriors finished 4-4 this season with 4 losses against quality opponents, including an 8-point loss to Boise State.  They also upset Nevada, which just beat AAC member Tulane 38-27 in their bowl game.  And now they take on an AAC team in Houston that is just 3-4 on the season.  The Cougars didn't have any impressive wins this year as their 3 victories came against the bottom of the AAC with Navy, South Florida and Tulane.  And they lost 3 times by 17 points or more as well.  This feels like it will be a one-score game either way.  I like Hawaii QB Cordeiro who has totaled 18 touchdowns passing and rushing in 8 games this year.  He will make enough plays with his arm and feet to keep the Rainbow Warriors in this game for 4 quarters with a possible upset.  Take Hawaii.

7* UFC/BYU Boca Raton Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on BYU -6

The Key: The BYU Cougars (10-1) are the better team in this matchup with the UCF Knights (6-3).  They will be the more hungry team here too with UCF used to playing in much bigger bowls than the Boca Raton Bowl.  And BYU will pretty much have its full compliment of players for this game while UCF has some guys opting out, including leading receiver Marlon Williams who had 71 receptions for 1,039 yards and 10 touchdowns this year. Both teams have explosive offenses with UCF averaging 44.3 PPG and 6.8 YPP while BYU averages 43.0 PPG and 7.7 YPP.  But the difference in this game is defensively.  BYU only gives up 14.6 PPG, 308.9 YPG and 4.8 YPP.  UCF allows 31.4 PPG, 473.7 YPG and 5.9 YPP.   UCF is 1-8 ATS in its last 9 games with a total of 70 or higher.  The Knights are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games overall.  UCF has losses to Cincinnati, Tulsa and Memphis this season.  BYU's only loss came to Coastal Carolina on only a few days' notice.  And that's an 11-0 Coastal Carolina team.  Take BYU.

7* Pac-12 Game of the Year on Stanford +7

The Key: The Stanford Cardinal have won 3 straight and have all the momentum right now going into this final game of the season.  That includes their upset win over Washington as a double-digit underdog.  And now they are catching 7 points against a UCLA team that is 3-3 and coming off a 3rd heartbreaking loss this season.  This one was a 38-43 loss to USC in which they allowed a TD with 16 seconds left.  They were in control of the game the whole way, too.  I don't expect this young UCLA team to be able to handle that loss very well, and they likely won't even show up this week against Stanford.  The Cardinal are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 matchups with UCLA, including 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 matchups at UCLA.  Take Stanford.

6* Ole Miss/LSU SEC *CA$H COW* on Ole Miss -2.5

The Key: LSU is coming off a shocking 37-34 win over Florida as more than 3-touchdown underdog.  The Gators were clearly looking ahead to their SEC Championship Game against Alabama this week.  And that win has LSU getting too much respect from the books this week.  Ole Miss is in the better situation.  The Rebels haven't played in 3 weeks and will be fresh.  They have won 3 in a row coming in and also gave Alabama their stiffest test of the season to flash their potential.  LSU just beat Florida and won't care nearly as much about beating Ole Miss this week because of it.  The situation favors the Rebels.  The Tigers are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games off an upset win as a road dog.  Take Ole Miss.

6* Oklahoma/Iowa State Big 12 *CA$H COW* on Iowa State +6

The Key: The Iowa State Cyclones have saved their best football for last.  They are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall while outscoring their last 5 opponents by a total of 121 points and by an average of 24.2 PPG.  That's why they are getting so much hype in the college football playoff rankings, and deservedly so.  But now they are getting disrespected once again as 6-point dogs to Oklahoma in the Big 12 Championship Game.  They upset Oklahoma as 7.5-point home dogs, 37-30 in their first matchup this year.  The Cyclones are now 5-0 ATS in their last 5 matchups with Oklahoma with an average cover of 16 PPG.  They haven't lost any of the last 5 matchups by more than 10 points, so Matt Campbell clearly has this Oklahoma team figured out.  And it's a Sooners team coming off one of their worst performances of the season.  They managed just 269 total yards in a 27-14 win over Baylor as a 23-point favorite.  They were actually outgained by the awful Bears in that contest.  Iowa State is 20-8-1 ATS in its last 29 games as an underdog.  The Cyclones are 11-1 ATS under Campbell against good passing teams that average 8.5 or more yards per attempt.  The Sooners are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games as favorites.  Take Iowa State.

7* NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Rutgers +7

The Key: Nebraska is just 2-5 and should not be favored this heavily over Rutgers in the season finale for both teams.  The Huskers are coming off an upset loss to Minnesota as 8-point favorites.  Rutgers has the momentum, coming off an upset win over Maryland last time out.  They also upset Purdue two games ago as a double-digit dog.  They have been competitive in most their games this year, too.  The Scarlet Knights now have a chance to win four Big Ten games for the first time since joining the conference in 2014.  "This Nebraska game is everything," head coach Greg Schiano said. "We're shooting for something that has not been done at Rutgers.  ANd, to do it in a situation where you play nine straight.  And, to do it in a situation where you didn't have a non-conference to work out any of the kings.  I think everybody in our program has a chance to do something special."  It's clear that the Scarlet Knights want this game more than Nebraska does.  Bets against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points who have lost 3 of their last 4 games, in conference games are 70-38 ATS over the last 5 years.  The Huskers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as favorites.  The Scarlet Knights are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as dogs.  Take Rutgers.

6* Virginia/VA Tech ACC *CA$H COW* on Virginia +3.5

The Key: The Virginia Cavaliers are clearly trying to make the most of this season.  They have won 4 straight and are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall.  A win here Saturday over rival Virginia Tech would assure that they finish the season with a winning record.  They have wins over UNC, Louisville and Boston College during this stretch and only a 5-point loss at Miami.  Virginia Tech sits at 4-6 and is going the other direction.  The Hokies are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.  They are coming off two straight blowout losses to Pitt by 33 and Clemson by 35.  They haven’t shown much fight in either game and I don’t see them showing up today, either.  The Hokies are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 home games against at team that wins 51% to 60% of their games.  The Cavaliers are 11-1-2 ATS int heir last 14 games after scoring more than 40 points in their last game.  Take Virginia.

7* USC/UCLA Pac-12 *HEAVY HITTER* on UCLA +3.5

The Key: The UCLA Bruins are very close to being 5-0 this year.  They lost by 6 to Colorado and by 3 to Oregon, both on the road.  And they have wins over Cal by 24, Arizona by 17 and Arizona State by 7.  They are battle tested and ready to beat a team like USC.  The Trojans are 4-0 but could easily be 2-2.  They only beat Arizona State by 1 and Arizona by 4, the same two teams that UCLA beat by a combined 24 points.  The Bruins actually have the better stats too as they are outgaining teams by 0.8 yards per play while USC is outgaining teams by 0.5 yards per play.  The Trojans have also benefitted from being +6 in turnovers and forcing a whopping 12 of them in four games.  The Trojans are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games as road favorites.  USC is 16-35-2 ATS in its last 53 road games overall.  The Bruins are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall . The home team is 12-5 ATS in the last 17 matchups.  Take UCLA.

6* Houston/Memphis AAC *CA$H COW* on Memphis +5.5

The Key: The Houston Cougars have not played a game in a month and will be rusty here.  They should not be 5.5-point road favorites over the Memphis Tigers.  It has been a down season for Memphis, but they are still 6-3 this year and want to finish the season strong.  Houston is 3-3 with losses to the three best teams they’ve faced all by 17 points or more.  Their 3 wins have come against USF, Navy and Tulane.  Memphis is 4-0 SU in its last 4 matchups with Houston and hasn’t lost to the Cougars by more than 4 points in any of the last 6 matchups.  The Tigers are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 home games against good offensive teams that score 31 PPG or more.  Dana Holgorsen is 6-18 ATS as a head coach coming off a bye week.  The Cougars are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games off a win by more than 20 points.  The Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as home dogs.  Take Memphis.

7* Nevada/SJSU NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Nevada +1.5

The Key: Nevada has been the best team in the Mountain West this year in my opinion.  I’ve cashed on them several times already, and I’ll take them again tonight as they should not be dogs to San Jose State.  The Wolf Pack are outgaining their opponents by 81.0 YPG this year while San Jose State is outgaining opponents by 72.0 YPG.  And I like the situation for Nevada better here.  The Wolf Pack get to stay in Nevada as this game will be played at Sam Boyd Stadium.  The Spartans had to fly back from Hawaii over the weekend and now have to travel to Nevada too on this short week.  The Wolf Pack will be the fresher, more prepared team for this one.  Nevada is 10-1 SU in the last 11 matchups.  The Wolf Pack are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as underdogs.  Take Nevada.

7* Pittsburgh/Georgia Tech ACC *HEAVY HITTER* on Georgia Tech +7

The Key: Pitt just hasn’t been able to get margin on Georgia Tech in recent matchups.  Their largest win in the last 7 matchups came by 10 points last year against a very bad Georgia Tech team that was in the first season under Geoff Collins trying to switch from the triple-option to a pro style offense.  The previous largest win for Pitt was by 5 points in those 7 matchups.  The Yellow Jackets have improved tremendously this year even though they are just 3-6 on the season.  They have been competitive in a lot more games and have now outgained their last two opponents in Duke by 141 yards and NC State by 15 yards coming into this game.  They face a Pitt team still reeling from a 17-52 loss to Clemson.  And they will give the Panthers a run for their money tonight.  The Panthers just had DE Rashad Weaver and his 7.5 sacks opt out for the rest of the year, which will make life easier on this Georgia Tech offense.  Take Georgia Tech.

6* SJSU/Hawaii Mountain West *CA$H COW* on San Jose State -1.5

The Key: Brent Brennan deserves some love for what he is doing with this San Jose State program.  He is in his 4th season here.  After going 5-7 last year with 3 losses by 3 points or less, the Spartans came out motivated in 2020 to do big things and make a bowl.  They have opened 4-0 SU & 3-0-1 ATS this season.  They beat two very good teams by double-digits with their 17-6 win over Air Force and their 28-17 road win at San Jose State.  Their defense is balling, yielding just 15.3 PPG and 349.3 YPG this year.  Hawaii is just a mediocre team in the Mountain West after losing head coach Nick Rolovich to Washington State.  Their defense is not good, yielding 29.7 PPG this year.  And that is going to be the difference in this game is SJSU will get key stops while Hawaii will not.  The Spartans have had the last 2 weeks off and will be ready to go Saturday night.  The Warriors are coming off 3 straight huge games against SDSU, Boise and Nevada the last 3 weeks and will be playing for a 7th consecutive week.  I have to think they are starting to get tired after that gauntlet.  The Spartans want revenge from 4 straight losses in this series, including losses by 2 and 3 points the last 2 years.  They lost in OT 2 years ago and by just 2 points last year.  The Spartans are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games as road favorites.  The road team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 matchups.  The Spartans are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 trips to Hawaii.  Take San Jose State.

7* Big Ten Game of the Year on Illinois +13.5

The Key: Illinois QB Brandon Peters played against Nebraska in their last game for the first time since the opener because of COVID-19 issues.  He threw for 205 yards and a touchdown to improve to 7-5 in his career in games he’s able to complete.  The Fighting Illini tried four others at QB in his absence and it did not go well.  Peters makers all the difference for this team.  He led the Illini to a 41-23 win at Nebraska two weeks ago with 490 yards of total offense.  And now the Fighting Illini have had 2 weeks to get ready to face rival Iowa.  The Hawkeyes are starting to get too much respect from the books now as they have won 4 straight since an 0-2 start.  They barely held on to beat that same Nebraska team 26-20 as 12-point home favorites last week.  And now they are in their largest favorite role of the season here as 13.5-point favorites over Illinois.  It’s too much for an Iowa team that isn’t getting very good play at all from first-time starter Spencer Petras.  Iowa only beat Illinois 19-10 as 15-point home favorites last year.  The Illini rushed for 192 yards in that game, and they are 2nd in the Big Ten with 222.4 RYPG this season.  Illinois is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 conference games.  The Illini are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games off a win.  Take Illinois.

6* West Virginia/Iowa State Big 12 *CA$H COW* on UNDER 49.5

The Key: The two best defensive teams in the Big 12 square off Saturday when Iowa State hosts West Virginia.  The Mountaineers give up just 17.8 points and 274.0 yards per game this season and have what it takes to slow down the Cyclones.  Iowa State yields just 23.0 PPG and 346.6 YPG this year and has played a gauntlet of a schedule, making their numbers even more impressive.  WVU has yet to face Oklahoma.  The UNDER is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.  Iowa State has limited WVU to fewer than 200 yards of total offense in the past two meetings in this series.  And I think this WVU defense is the best unit that the Cyclones have probably ever faced as they allow just 112 RYPG and 162 PYPG.  Iowa State is 6-0 UNDER in its last 6 games off 3 straight wins.  The Cyclones are 6-0 UNDER in their last 6 games after committing zero turnovers in their previous game.  The UNDER is 8-0 in Mountaineers last 8 games as underdogs.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Mountaineers last 6 road games.  The UNDER is 21-6-1 in Cyclones last 28 against. a team with a winning record.  The UNDER is 21-4-2 in Cyclones last 27 games off a win.  Take the UNDER.

7* Louisiana/Appalachian State NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Louisiana +3

The Key: Louisiana is revenge-minded Friday night.  The Rajin’ Cajuns have lost each of their last 7 matchups with Appalachian State, including 4 losses over the last 2 seasons while ending with losses in the Sun Belt Title game.  Louisiana played well enough to win in the rematch last year as they had 513 yards compared to 416 for App State, but lost 38-45.  But now App State has already been eliminated from Sun Belt title contention with their earlier loss to Coastal Carolina, so they won’t be as hungry here as they’d normally be.  I was impressed with Louisiana hanging 70 points on rival Louisiana-Monroe last week, clearly not looking ahead to this game.  And they had the previous week off due to Covid-19 concerns.  So they are still going to be very fresh here.  App State will be playing for a 7th consecutive week here.  Louisiana is 5-0 SU on the road this year with an outright upset of Iowa State, which is ranked 9th in the playoff rankings.  The Rajin’ Cajuns are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 road games against excellent rushing teams that average 230 or more RYPG.  The Mountaineers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  Take Louisiana.

7* LA Tech/North Texas C-USA *HEAVY HITTER* on LA Tech ML +100

The Key: LA Tech went through a gauntlet of a schedule before having the last month off due to Covid-19 problems.  They lost to Marshall by 18, UTSA by 1 and upset UAB by 3 as 12.5-point dogs.  They were improving with each game.  And now they will be ready to play a game for the first time in a month here.  That’s the only reason they aren’t favored is because they have been off for so long.  But North Texas has no business being favored in this game.  They are coming off a 17-49 loos to UTSA in which they gave up 624 total yards to the Roadrunners.  And their defense has been atrocious all season.  The Mean Green give up 41.0 PPG, 535 YPG and 7.0 YPP.  It’s hard to trust a team that cannot stop the run, and the Mean Green yield 244 RYPG and 5.8 YPC.  LA Tech is 6-0 ATS against good passing teams that average 250 PYPG or more over the last 3 years.  North Texas is 0-7 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 years.  The Mean Green are 0-8 ATS against teams that allow 250 PYPG or more over the last 3 years. The Bulldogs are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 matchups and 4-0 ATS in the last 4 matchups at North Texas.  Take Louisiana Tech.

6* Nevada/Hawaii Mountain West *BAILOUT* on Nevada -7

The Key: I’ve backed Nevada 4 times already this season and am 4-0 with them.  They delivered against San Diego State last week, and they’ll deliver again this week against Hawaii.  They’ll be hungry to avenge a fluky 54-3 upset loss to Hawaii last year.  And these teams have already played the same 3 teams this year that shows Nevada is by far the superior team.  Nevada is 3-0 against Wyoming, New Mexico and San Diego State and has outscored them by a total of 15 points.  Hawaii is 1-2 against those same 3 teams and has been outscored by 42 points total.  Hawaii hasn’t had much of a home-field advantage at all in going 11-27-1 ATS in its last 39 home games.  Take Nevada.

6* LSU/Texas A&M SEC *CA$H COW* on Texas A&M -14

The Key: The Texas A&M Aggies have a legit shot to make the 4-team playoff if they win out.  They are 5-1 this year with their only loss on the road to Alabama.  They have a win over Florida, a fellow playoff contender.  And they are going to need some style points the rest the way.  That’s why I’m not worried about laying 14 points here with the Aggies Saturday against LSU.  The Aggies have had the last 2 weeks off so they’ll be fresh and ready.  LSU played last week and was fortunate to beat Arkansas 27-24.  They ran 91 plays for only 419 yards against Arkansas, an average of just 4.6 YPP.  Arkansas ran just 53 plays for 443 yards against LSU, an average of 8.4 YPP.  The Tigers are now giving up 472.7 YPG and 7.3 YPP defensively this year.  Texas A&M only allows 338.2 YPG and 5.6 YPP defensively.  That’s where the difference lies between these two teams.  Plus Texas A&M has the better offense at 6.7 YPP compared to 5.9 YPP for LSU.  And Texas A&M has played the tougher schedule.  The Aggies are 7-0 ATS after outrushing their last opponents by 150 or more yards over the last 3 years.  Take Texas A&M.

6* Saturday NCAAF *Total* Annihilator on Louisville/Boston College OVER 54.5

The Key: This total is too low Saturday for 2 good passing offenses like Louisville and Boston College.  Boston College has a great freshman QB in Jurkovec who is completing 60% for 2,355 yards with 17 touchdowns and 5 interceptions this year.  The Eagles are averaging 262 PYPG.  Cunningham is completing 64% for 2,126 yards with 16 TD and 11 INT this year.  The Cardinals average 243 PYPG and 8.4 YPA.  But they also have a great rushing attack to compliment it with 194 RPYG and 5.2 YPA.  Both defenses are sub par as Louisville yields 26.4 PPG and BC gives up 26.9 PPG.  Last year these teams played in an absolute shootout with Louisville winning 41-39 for 80 combined points.  And that has been the norm in this series.  Each of the last 4 matchups have seen 58 or more combined points and 6 of the last 7 have seen 57 or more.  The OVER is 9-1 in Eagles last 10 games as a home favorite.  The OVER is 6-0 in Cardinals last 6 games off a home win.  The OVER is 6-0 in Cardinals last 6 games off an ATS win.  The OVER is 4-0 in the last 4 matchups.  Take the OVER.

7* NCAAF Game of the Year on Louisiana-Monroe +28.5

The Key: Louisiana-Lafayette had 33 players on coronavirus protocol last week and had their game cancelled.  Head coach Billy Napier came down with it as well and hasn’t been able to be at practice all week.  This team should not be laying 28.5 points in a rivalry game against Louisiana-Monroe.  They haven’t won a single game by more than 28 points this year, and Monroe has only 2 losses by more than 25 points this year.  6 of the last 7 matchups were decided by a single score, including only a 31-30 win by Louisiana last year as a 20.5-point favorite.  And Louisiana has their huge game with Appalachian State on deck next week so this just screams flat spot for them this week.  The dog is 16-3-1 ATS in the last 20 matchups.  Take Louisiana-Monroe.

6* Maryland/Indiana Big Ten *CA$H COW* on Maryland +12

The Key: The Maryland Terrapins bounced back from their ugly loss to Northwestern with two shocking upsets of Minnesota as a 17.5-point underdog and Penn State as a 27.5-point underdog.  Tualia Tagovailoa, the brother of Miami Dolphins QB Too Tagovailoa, has lived up to the hype the past 2 games.  He has thrown for a combined 676 yards with 6 touchdowns and only 1 interception in those 2 victories.  And this offense should do what it wants against an Indiana defense that gave up 42 points and 607 yards to Ohio State last week.  That makes this a letdown spot for the Hoosiers after playing Ohio State and with Wisconsin on deck next week.  The Hoosiers are 5-0 ATS this season and oddsmakers are giving them too much respect this week now as a double-digit favorite over a live underdog like Maryland.  Each of the last 4 matchups between these teams were decided by 6 points or fewer and I could easily see that happening for a 5th straight year here.  Take Maryland.

7* NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Oregon State +14

The Key: The Oregon State Beavers are a team on the rise in the Pac-12.  They went 5-7 last year but had 3 losses by 3 points or fewer.  And this year they brought back 14 starters.  They are just 1-2, but the losses came by 10 points to Washington State and only by 6 to Washington.  They beat Cal last week and believe they are good enough to beat Oregon.  I like the price here on Oregon State catching 14 points considering they only lost by 14 to a much better Oregon team last year.  This Oregon team is 3-0 but not as good as last year.  They barely got by UCLA 38-35 last week as 18.5-point favorites and were outgained by the Bruins in the win.  The Beavers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as underdogs.  The Beavers are 7-0 in their last 7 home games following a home game.  Take Oregon State.

6* Liberty/NC State Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Liberty +5.5

The Key: The Liberty Flames are a legit 7-0 team and Hugh Freeze might be the single most underrated head coach in the country.  Freeze is now 60-35 ATS as a head coach taking back to his time at Ole Miss after opening up 6-1 ATS this season.  The Flames are outgaining opponents by nearly 200 YPG this year and just upset Virginia Tech in ACC play a few weeks back.  And now they step down in competition here against NC State and one again find themselves as dogs when they should be favorites.  Liberty QB Malik Willis is one of the best QB’s in the country.  He is completing 67.8% with 15 TD’s and only 1 INT along with 700 rushing yards, 9 TD and 7.1 YPR on the ground.  He leads a balanced offensive attack that averages 255 RYPG and 255 PYPG.  That’s bad news for an NC State defense that yields 33.9 PPG, 456.5 YPG and 178 RYPG.  Dave Doeren is 0-8 ATS against good rushing teams that average 230 or more RYPG as the coach of NC State.  The Wolfpack are 0-8 ATS against good passing teams that average 8 YPA or more over the last 2 years.  NC State is 0-6 ATS off a conference home win over the last 3 years.  Take Liberty.

7* NCAAF Upset Game of the Year on Nevada ML +105

The Key: I’ve backed Nevada 3 times already this season and am 3-0 with them.  Fortunately I stayed off them last time out when they didn’t cover against New Mexico.  But I’m back on them again this week at a great price when they should not be home underdogs to San Diego State.  The Wolf Pack are 4-0 this season and about to improve to 5-0 here against a SDSU team that has a bad loss to San Jose State already, and 3 easy wins over terrible teams in UNL, Utah Stat and Hawaii.  This is an experience Nevada team that returned 17 starters this year and Jay Norvell has coached them up well.  The Wolf Pack are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as home underdogs.  They have won their last 2 meetings with San Diego State outright as underdogs and will do it for a 3rd straight year here.  Take Nevada.

6* Conference USA *CA$H COW* on Rice +2

The Key: Both Rice and North Texas have had COVID problems this year which has seen Rice play just 2 games and North Texas play just 3 games.  But we’ve seen enough of a sample size to know that Rice is the better team.  And that was evident with their common opponent in Southern Miss.  Rice crushed Southern Miss 30-6 on the road while North Texas lost to that same team 31-41 at home.  Not to mention North Texas also lost 21-49 at home to a bad Charlotte team.  It’s an experienced Rice team that returned 17 starters this year.  And it’s one that should not be a dog to a North Texas team that they also upset last year 20-14 at home.  They had 19 first downs compared to just 10 first downs for North Texas in that game.  Rice is a running team that will be able to run the ball at will against a North Texas defense that is yielding 243 RYPG and 5.6 YPC.  And North Texas hasn’t played a game since October 17th so it will have been off for more than a month coming into this game.  That can’t be a good thing.  North Texas is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games off a win.  Rice is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 road games.  Take Rice.

7* NCAAF Friday Night Lights on UMass +33.5

The Key: Florida Atlantic can’t be laying 33.5 points to anyone with their putrid offense.  The Owls are scoring just 20.4 PPG and averaging 323 YPG this year.  UMass is not good, but this will be their easiest opponent they have faced this year after road losses to Georgia Southern and Marshall.  And they’ve had 2 weeks to get ready for Florida Atlantic while the Owls played FIU last week.  It’s an experienced UMass team that returned 14 starters this year while FAU only returned 9 starters and has a new head coach in Willie Taggart, who has been a disaster as a coach in recent years.  The Owls are 8-17-1 ATS in their last 26 against a team with a losing record.  The Owls are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 Friday games.  Take UMass.

6* Tulane/Tulsa AAC *CA$H COW* on Tulsa -5.5

The Key: The Tulsa Golden Hurricane are a legit contender to win the American Athletic Conference this season.  They are 4-1 with their only loss coming in non-conference play in a game effort at Oklahoma State in a 7-16 loss as 23.5-point dogs.  Then they upset UCF as 20.5-point dogs to prove they are contenders before crushing South Florida 42-13 on the road.  They did barely squeak by ECU in a bad spot, but now they came back from their bye week and beat SMU 28-24 last week.  And that bye week is key as the Golden Hurricane will now be playing just their 2nd game in 3 weeks so they should be the fresher team.  The Tulane Green Wave will be playing 7 straight weeks here and are on a short week to boot.  Tulsa outgained SMU and UCF by nearly 100 yards combined while Tulane was outgained by over 500 yards by SMU and UFC combined.  The Golden Hurricane are clearly the better team here and it will show on the scoreboard Thursday night.  Take Tulsa.

7* WMU/CMU MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Central Michigan -1.5

The Key: Central Michigan made the MAC Championship Game in Jim McElwain’s first season on the job last year.  He is doing big things here for the Chippewas already.  They are off to a 2-0 start this season with a 30-27 win over Ohio as 2.5-point home dogs and a 40-10 blowout of Northern Illinois as 6-point road favorites.  The defense has been very good in allowing just 294.5 YPG and they are outgaining those two opponents by 135.5 YPG.  Western Michigan was fortunate to beat Toledo last week after trailing by 10 with just under 3 minutes left and getting 2 TD’s in the final minutes after an onside kick to win 41-38.  Even after 2 TD drives late they were still outgained by 64 yards by Toledo for the game.  Last year Central Michigan outgained Western Michigan on the road but lost 15-31 in a misleading final after committing 3 turnovers.  The Chippewas get revenge at home this time around.  The Broncos are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games as underdog.  Western Michigan is 4-17 ATS in its last 21 games off an ATS win.  The Broncos are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road games.  Central Michigan is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 home games.  The Chippewas are 10-0-1 ATS in their last 11 Wednesday games.  The favorite is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 matchups.  Take Central Michigan.

7* Akron/Kent State MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Akron +26

The Key: The Akron Zips really impressed me last week in their 10-24 loss at Ohio as 27-point dogs.  This was a 7-point game late and they were in it for 4 quarters.  They gained 435 yards on offense and only gave up 307 yards on defense and probably deserved to win outright.  Now they are catching 26 points from Kent State tonight.  Kent State only beat Eastern Michigan by 4 and then crushed the worst team in the MAC in Bowling Green by 38 last week.  That win over Bowling Green has the Golden Flashes getting too much respect from oddsmakers in this matchup.  Kent State is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 games as a home favorite.  The underdog is 10-4 ATS in the last 14 matchups.  Take Akron.

6* SMU/Tulsa AAC *CA$H COW* on Tulsa -2.5

The Key: The Tulsa Golden Hurricane are a legit contender to win the American Athletic Conference this season.  They are 3-1 with their only loss coming in non-conference play in a game effort at Oklahoma State in a 7-16 loss as 23.5-point dogs.  Then they upset UCF as 20.5-point dogs to prove they are contenders before crushing South Florida 42-13 on the road.  They did barely squeak by ECU last time out, but now they’ve had 2 weeks to get ready for SMU coming off a bye week.  SMU has to be a tired team right now as they have played 8 games compared to just 4 for Tulsa.  And now the Mustangs will be playing for an 8th consecutive week.  After getting blown out 13-42 by Cincinnati, they were able to get by 2 bad teams in Temple and Navy the last 2 weeks.  But now this is a big step up in class and likely the 2nd-best team they’ve played all season here in Tulsa.  The Golden Hurricane want revenge rom a 37-43 (OT) loss to SMU last year as 12-point dogs.  They blew a 30-9 lead in the 4th quarter and have not forgotten.  It’s revenge time here Saturday.  The Mustangs are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games.  The Golden Hurricane are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 games off an ATS loss.  The Golden Hurricane are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 matchups.  Take Tulsa.

6* Northwestern/Purdue Big Ten *CA$H COW* on Purdue +3.5

The Key: Northwestern is starting to get too much love after starting the season 3-0.  Their last 2 wins were fortunate as they were outgained by 20 yards by Iowa in their 21-20 win and outgained by 125 yards by Nebraska in their 21-13 win.  Now they will be playing for a 4th straight week here.  Purdue is rested and ready off a bye week and off 2 straight wins over Iowa and Illinois.  The Boilermakers should not be catching 3.5 points at home here in what I have as a pretty evenly matched game, so the price is right to back the home team.  Purdue is 10-2 ATS as an underdog over the last 3 years.  The Boilermakers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as home dogs.  The Wildcats are 2-8-2 ATS in their last 12 games as favorites.  Take Purdue.

6* Baylor/Texas Tech Big 12 *CA$H COW* on Texas Tech -1.5

The Key: The Texas Tech Red Raiders are hungry for a win after 2 straight losses to Oklahoma and TCU after beating a very good West Virginia team at home.  They also took Texas to overtime at home earlier this year after blowing a 15-point lead.  This team has a nice home-field advantage and always has.  Baylor is coming off 4 straight losses after blowing a 21-7 lead to Iowa State last week.  The Bears are an inexperienced team that returned only 9 starters this year and lost a few more due to injury.  Now the Bears will be on the road for the 4th time in 5 games.  And the Bears have had zero success in Lubbock over the years.  Texas Tech is a perfect 9-0 SU in its last 9 home matchups with Baylor.  And we’re getting the Red Raiders at a great price here as only 1.5-point favorites in a game they basically just have to win to cover.  Take Texas Tech.

6* Saturday Sun Belt *Annihilator* on South Alabama +16

The Key: Louisiana is 6-1 SU this season but just 2-5 ATS.  They haven’t been able to put teams away as each of their last 5 wins have come by 10 points or fewer against the likes of Georgia State, Georgia Southern, UAB, Texas State and Arkansas State.  If those teams can play with them, South Alabama certainly can as well.  The Jaguars only lost by 17 to the best team in the Sun Belt last week in Coastal Carolina.  And this has been a very closely-contested series over the years.  Each of the last 6 matchups have been decided by 10 points or fewer.  South Alabama only lost by 10 as 28-point dogs last year and by 10 as 19.5-point dogs the year prior.  And this is an experienced Jaguars team that returned 15 starters this year and has the confidence that they can hang with Louisiana.  The Jaguars are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 conference games.  The Rajin’ Cajuns are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 conference games.  Take South Alabama.

7* Big 12 Game of the Month on West Virginia -3

The Key: West Virginia is one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They are just 4-3 this season but could easily be 7-0.  Their stats are that of a 6-1 team or better.  They are outgaining teams by 179 YPG this season and 1.2 YPP.  They had a win taken away from them last week by the refs at Texas as they refused to call a pass interference in the end zone on 4th down when they were going in for the game winning score.  Look for the Mountaineers to come back with a chip on their shoulder this week and make easy work of TCU.  The Horned Frogs rely heavily on their rushing game to move the football.  West Virginia only gives up 109 RYPG and 3.3 YPR this year.  They’ll stop the run with their elite defense and score enough points on this TCU defense to win this game with room to spare.  The Mountaineers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games off a game where they forced no turnovers.  The Mountaineers are 4-0 at home this year and winning by 25.0 PPG.  Take West Virginia.

7* NCAAF Friday Night Lights on East Carolina +28

The Key: East Carolina is better than its 1-5 record would suggest.  They had a win against Tulsa stolen from them by the refs.  And they haven’t lost by more than 23 points this year.  That 23-point loss came to UCF, a team that just runs at a frantic pace and puts up a lot of points on everyone.  Last year ECU only lost 43-46 at home to Cincinnati as a 24.5-point underdog.  The Pirates put up over 600 yards of offense in that defeat thanks to 535 passing yards and 5 total touchdowns from QB Holton Ahlers, who is back leading this ECU offense this season and having another great year.  Cincinnati has covered 3 in a row in wins over SMU, Houston and Memphis and now the price is too steep on them, especially since they are ranked in the Top 10 right now and getting 4-team playoff hype.  And they play UCF next week so could easily be looking ahead to that game and buying into the hype.  This game will be a lot closer than the oddsmakers expect.  Plus the Pirates are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as road dogs.  Take East Carolina.

7* Toledo/Western Michigan MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Western Michigan -2.5

The Key: The Western Michigan Broncos got in 8 spring practices and started off the season like gangbusters with their 58-13 throttling of Akron last week.  They outgained the Zips by 4.3 YPP in that game.  Toledo also had a nice win last week in a 38-3 victory over Bowling Green.  But head coach Jason Candle is struggling the last 2 seasons at Toledo with a combined 13-12 record.  The Rockets are on the decline and the Broncos have a great chance to beat them after losing the last 2 meetings.  Western Michigan went 6-0 at home last year, while Toledo is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 road games.  I like that combination here and the price with the Broncos as only 2.5-point home favorites.  Take Western Michigan.

7* Miami/Buffalo MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Buffalo -9.5

The Key: The Buffalo Bulls are loaded with 15 returning starters and the most talent in the MAC this season.  They are the favorites to win the conference.  They have everyone back on offense except for a couple offensive linemen from a unit that average 31.5 PPG last year.  That have 7 starters back on D from a unit that only gave up 21.3 PPG.  And they had 9 spring practices to boot.  Buffalo outgained Northern Illinois by 2.0 YPP in the opener and won 49-30 after leading 49-16.  Miami was outgained by 1.1 YPP by Ball State in the opener and was lucky to win 38-31.  Miami was also lucky to beat Buffalo last year despite getting outgained by 133 yards because they won the turnover battle 4-0.  They won’t be so fortunate in 2020 as Buffalo makes a statement here and avenges that defeat.  The Redhawks could be without starting QB Gabbert and they will be without their top 2 rushers from last year in Bester and Shelton.  The Bulls have won 7 of their last 8 games all by 19 points or more and are 7-1 ATS over that span.  Take Buffalo.

6* Washington State/Oregon State Pac-12 *BAILOUT* on Oregon State -1.5

The Key: Oregon State is a program on the rise.  After going just 2-10 in Jonathan Smith’s first year in 2018, the Beavers went 5-7 last year.  They won 4 Pac-12 games and had 3 losses by 3 points or less.  That’s how close they were to being an 8-4 team.  One of those close losses came to Washington State by a final of 53-54 that cost them a trip to a bowl game.  It’s now revenge time for the Beavers.  Smith is in his 3rd season with the program with 14 returning starters and his best team yet.  Washington State lost Mike Leach to Mississippi State and is in rebuilding mode.  They lose QB Anthony Gordon who had 5,579 yards and 48 TD last year.  They also lose their top 3 receivers, who combined for nearly 3,000 receiving yards and 26 TD.  The Cougars are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games.  The Beavers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.  Take Oregon State.

6* Stanford/Oregon Pac-12 *CA$H COW* on Stanford +10.5

The Key: The Stanford Cardinal have 16 starters back this year and are contenders in the Pac-12.  They have QB Davis Mills who gained valuable experience last year replacing an injured KJ Costello and completed nearly 66% of his passes on the season.  Oregon has just 9 returning starters and is a team on decline after losing QB Justin Herbert as an early first-round draft pick.  They have to replace all 5 starters on the offensive line and their quarterback.  I like to fade teams like this early in the season.  Take Stanford.

6* Houston/Cincinnati AAC *CA$H COW* on Houston +13.5

The Key: Cincinnati is coming off a massive win over Memphis last week.  The Bearcats had that game circled after losing to Memphis twice last season, including in the AAC Championship Game.  This is now a letdown spot for the Bearcats.  And this line is inflated because they hammered Memphis 49-10 and kept pouring it on.  They go from being underdogs to SMU to 6.5-point favorites over Memphis to now nearly 2-touchdown favorites against Houston.  And Houston may be better than both SMU and Memphis.  The Cougars played BYU very tough earlier this season and were leading in the 4th quarter.  They eventually lost to BYU, which is now 7-0 on the season.  They also lost to UCF, another team among the elite in the country.  And that 21-44 loss last week has this number inflated as well.  The Cougars are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 games as road underdogs.  Houston is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games off an ATS loss.  The road team is 4-0-1 ATS in the last 5 matchups.  Take Houston.

6* WVU/Texas Big 12 *CA$H COW* on West Virginia +6.5

The Key: West Virginia is one of the best teams in the country that not many know about.  You look at their numbers and they are better than their 4-2 record.  That showed up last week as they handed Kansas State their first conference loss of the season.  They dominated for 4 quarters and rolled to a 37-10 victory.  West Virginia is now outgaining its opponents by 209 YPG on the season with 465 YPG on offense and giving up only 256 YPG on defense.  Texas is only outgaining its opponents by 42 YPG.  The Longhorns were fortunate to beat Oklahoma State in overtime last week as they won the turnover battle 4-0 and were outgained by 243 yards.  West Virginia actually outgained Oklahoma State by 11 yards in their earlier meeting but lost.  Bets on road teams who allowed 225 or fewer yards in their previous game against an opponent that was outgained by 225 or more yards in their previous game are 34-6 ATS over the last 5 years.  Take West Virginia.