Sports Picks & Predictions

7* NCAAF Non-Conference Game of the Year on Liberty +15

The Key: The Liberty Flames are undefeated this season which includes a 17-point road win over Syracuse from the ACC.  This will be their toughest game yet, but they will be up to the task catching 15 points against the Virginia Tech Hokies.  Liberty is averaging 40 PPG this year and giving up only 24 PPG and 303 YPG.  They are loaded on offense behind former Auburn QB Malik Willis.  They are outgaining their opponents by 191 YPG this year.  Virginia Tech is giving up 31 PPG and 459 YPG this year.  They also give up 195 rushing yards per game, which is going to be a problem for them against a Liberty team that rushed for 257 yards per game.  Take Liberty.

7* Miami/NC State NCAAF Friday Night Lights on OVER 58.5

The Key: The OVER is 5-1 in NC State games this season.  The Wolfpack are built for high scoring games with a very good offense and a terrible defense.  They are giving up 34.2 PPG this year and have allowed 40-plus 3 times in 6 games.  They are scoring 31.5 PPG and even though they recently lost starting QB Devin Leary, they still managed to pass for 358 yards against UNC last time out.  Miami now has an elite offense this year thanks to Houston transfer D’Eriq King.  The Hurricanes have scored 31 or more points in 4 of their 6 games this year and will have no problem getting to 40-plus in this one.  The OVER is 3-0-1 in Hurricanes last 4 games as road favorites.  The OVER is 5-0 in Wolfpack last 5 games as an underdog.  Take the OVER.

6* Utah State/Nevada Mountain West *CA$H COW* on Nevada -15.5

The Key: The Nevada Wolf Pack are a real contender in the Mountain West this year.  They returned 17 starters, an elite offense, and a monster defensive line that is exactly what Jay Norvell has wanted since he arrived here.  The offense has put up 37 PPG thus far and the defense has limited the run, holding two good running teams in Wyoming and UNLV to 127 rushing yards per game and 3.8 per carry.  Utah State is in rebuilding mode after losing QB Jordan Love to the NFL and bringing back 13 starters this year.  That’s been evident as the Aggies have looked atrocious in their first two games.  They lost 13-42 to Boise State as 17-point dogs and 7-38 to San Diego State as 8.5-point dogs.  Their offense is averaging just 10 PPG and 209 YPG in the absence of Love, the first-round pick of the Green Bay Packers.  The Aggies are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games as underdogs.  The Wolf Pack are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.  The home team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 matchups.  Take Nevada.

7* Buffalo/NIU MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Buffalo -13

The Key: The Buffalo Bulls are loaded with 15 returning starters and the most talent in the MAC this season.  They should be the favorites to win the conference.  They have everyone back on offense except a couple offensive linemen from a unit that averaged 31.5 PPG last year.  They have 7 starters back on D from a unit that only gave up 21.3 PPG.  And then they got in 9 spring practices to boot.  Northern Illinois looks like one of the worst teams in the MAC with all of the transfers they lost and now having just 10 starters back or fewer.  They are likely to start 10 underclassmen and are lacking talent.  Buffalo went 7-1 ATS over its final 8 games last year with all 6 of its wins during that stretch coming by 19 points or more.  Take Buffalo.

6* Missouri/Florida SEC *CA$H COW* on Florida -12

The Key: The Florida Gators have had 3 weeks to get over their Covid-19 issues and get ready to face Missouri.  They are coming off their first loss of the season, a tough 38-41 road loss to a very good Texas A&M team.  So they should be playing with a chip on their shoulder and be ready to give a big effort for 4 quarters.  That should be enough to cover this 12-point spread against a Missouri team that is starting to get too much respect from the books.  After losing by 19 to Alabama and by 23 to Tennessee, Missouri has now pulled off 2 straight upset wins over LSU 45-41 on the road and Kentucky 20-10 at home.  But last week’s win over Kentucky comes with an asterisk.  The Wildcats lost starting QB Terry Wilson early in that game and could not get their offense going without him.  Florida will get its offense going against Missouri.  The Gators average 42.3 PPG and 464 YPG this year and have one of the best offenses in the country.  They can name their score against this Missouri defense that gave up 38 to Alabama, 35 to Tennessee and 41 to LSU.  The Tigers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games, and 7-20 ATS in their last 27 road games dating back further.  The Gators are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games off an ATS loss.  Take Florida.

6* Texas/Oklahoma State Big 12 *CA$H COW* on Texas +3.5

The Key: Oklahoma State is 4-0 but it has come against a soft schedule with their only road game thus far at Kansas.  Texas has played the much tougher schedule and is close to being 5-0 with a triple-OT loss to Oklahoma and a tough 31-33 loss to TCU in which they deserved to win.  If the Longhorns want any chance of winning the Big 12, this is a must-win now.  I think they get the job done with the better QB in Sam Ehlinger over Spencer Sanders.  Ehlinger has 17 touchdowns against 5 interceptions this year and has rushed for 293 yards and 7 scores.  He simply wills his team to wins.  Sanders has 1 TD and 2 INT and has only rushed for 80 yards and a score on 20 attempts.  He’s just a QB that I refuse to trust with my money.  Bets on road dogs of 3.5 to 10 points off a win by 10 points or more over a conference opponent against a team that’s off 3 straight conference wins are 70-32 ATS since 1992.  The road team is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 matchups.  Take Texas.

7* SEC Game of the Month on Auburn +3.5

The Key: LSU is getting too much respect as a road favorite here after beating South Carolina 52-24 last week.  Remember, this is the same team that lost 34-44 to Mississippi State as a 14.5-point favorite and 41-45 to Missouri as a 14-point favorite.  Their schedule has been extremely easy and they sit at just 2-2.  Freshman QB TJ Finley played well against South Carolina in place of Myles Brennan, who is doubtful to play this week.  But now Finley will be making his first SEC road start in a very tough place to play at Auburn.  Auburn has some great stats outside of their loss to Georgia.  They have outgained each of their last 3 opponents and outgained South Carolina by 179 yards but found a way to lose. LSU only outgained South Carolina by 138 yards and won by 28.  So those misleading final scores are providing us with some line value here on Auburn catching points at home.  Auburn is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games as a home underdog.  The home team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 matchups.  Auburn wants revenge from a 3-point loss last year and a 1-point loss to LSU in 2018.  Take Auburn.

6* UCF/Houston AAC *CA$H COW* on Houston +3

The Key: The Houston Cougars are loaded this season with 19 returning starters in the 2nd year under Dana Holgorsen.  Their lone loss came to a very good BYU team in which they led in the 4th quarter before getting outscored 22-0 in the final period.  They were only outgained by 40 yards by the Cougars.  They crushed Tulane 49-31 and Navy 37-21 in their other 2 games.  Clearly UCF has taken a step back this season with upset losses already to both Tulsa and Memphis.  And I think you can add another loss here against Houston.  The Knights are just too bad defensively to be trusted as they yield 33.4 PPG and 482.2 YPG this year.  UCF is 0-7 ATS after playing a game where 70 points or more were scored over the last 2 years.  Bets against road teams with a line of +3 to -3 with a good offense that averages 6.1 YPPG or more after allowing 475 YPG or more in their last 3 games are 24-4 ATS over the last 5 years.  Take Houston.

6* Saturday NCAAF *UPSET SPECIAL* on Georgia State +3

The Key: Coastal Carolina’s unbeaten season comes to an end this week.  Georgia State is the better team, especially now that the Chanticleers are expected to be without starting QB Grant McCall.  He has 11 touchdown passes and only 1 interception this season and has also rushed for 3 touchdowns.  He is irreplaceable for a team like Coastal Carolina.  Georgia State has an elite offense that averages 237 rushing yards and 229 passing yards this season behind the great play of freshman QB Cornelius Brown.  It’s a good matchup for the Panthers too as they give up just 97 RYPG and 3.2 YPC this year.  They have what it takes defensively to stop Coastal Carolina’s rushing attack, which averages 188 RYPG on 44 attempts per game.  Take Georgia State.

6* Hawaii/Wyoming Mountain West *BAILOUT* on Wyoming PK

The Key: I went against Wyoming last week as they were favored on the road against a Nevada team that I think has a legit shot to win the Mountain West this year.  But Wyoming made it interesting and never gave up, eventually losing 34-37.  But now I’m siding with Wyoming this week as they play their first home game against a Hawaii team that I believe to be overrated.  Hawaii is under a first-year head coach in Todd Graham.  They did beat a Fresno State team that’s in transition last week also with a new head coach.  But they were gifted that win with 4 turnovers.  Wyoming isn’t the type of team that gives away anything easy.  And they have a great home-field advantage in Laramie as they went 6-0 at home last year.  The weather will also be working in their favor as temps will be in the 30s Friday night with wind gusts of 15 to 25 MPH.  They play great defense under Craig Bohl in his 7th season and have allowed 22 PPG or fewer each of the last 3 years, so their performance against a good Nevada offense last week was an aberration.  Take Wyoming.

6* South Alabama/Georgia Southern Sun Belt *CA$H COW* on South Alabama +4

The Key: South Alabama has a common opponent with Georgia Southern that makes be believe the Jaguars are the better team here.  South Alabama beat Louisiana Monroe 38-14 and Georgia Southern only beat that same team 35-30.  It’s also a good matchup for South Alabama’s defense as Georgia Southern rushes for 249 YPG but only passes for 114 YPG. South Alabama only gives up 135 RYPG and 3.9 YPC on the ground this season.  Their weakness defensively has been against the pass, but that won’t be an issue here.  And South Alabama clearly has the better offense averaging 412 YPG compared to 363 YPG for Georgia Southern.  And it’s also worth noting South Alabama has faced the much more difficult schedule.  Bets on road dogs who covered 4 of their last 5 games that win between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 32-10 ATS over the last 10 years.  The Jaguars are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games after yielding more than 280 passing yards last game.  Take South Alabama.

6* Cincinnati/SMU AAC *BAILOUT* on SMU -2.5

The Key: The SMU Mustangs are 5-0 this season and a legit contender to win the American Athletic Conference.  Sonny Dykes is doing great things here, and the Mustangs have the numbers to back up their 5-0 record.  They have an explosive offense that averages 42.6 PPG and 563.2 YPG and a solid defense that yields 25.4 PPG.  Cincinnati is 3-0 but against a much easier schedule than SMU has faced.  Their 3 wins all came at home over Austin Peay, Army and South Florida.  They only managed 396 YPG and gave up 306.7 YPG against those 3 poor teams.  Now they will be going on the road for the first time this year.  I don’t think they have the firepower offensively to match SMU in this one.  Bets on home favorites who outgain their opponents by 100 YPG or more against a good team outgaining opponents by 50-100 YPG, after outgaining their last opponent by 175 or more yards are 26-6 ATS over the last 5 years.  SMU was much more dominant than the final score against Tulane last week as they needed OT despite outgaining the Green Wave by 194 yards.  They remain underrated despite being 5-0.  Take SMU.

7* Mountain West Game of the Month on Nevada +4.5

The Key: Nevada should not be a home dog to Wyoming in the Mountain West opener for both teams.  The Wolf Pack are a real contender in the MWC and my pick to win the West division this year.  They have 17 starters back and enter Year 4 under Jay Norvell, who has gotten them to a bowl game in each of his last 2 seasons.  They have a loaded offense with 10 starters back and should make big strides on that side of the ball.  And Norvell finally has a big defensive line with two DE over 270 pounds and two DT over 300 pounds.  It should be his best defense yet.  Wyoming is a tough team to trust to lay points because they never have a very good offense.  They do have a good defense year in and year out, but they will take a step back this year with only 5 starters back and the loss of their top 3 tacklers on D.  The Wolf Pack are 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 home games and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as home dogs.  Take Nevada.

6* Saturday NCAAF *UPSET SPECIAL* on Indiana +6.5

The Key: The Indiana Hoosiers finished with a winning record in the Big Ten and overall for the first since since 1993 last year.  Head coach Tom Allen has this team on the rise and this is his best team yet as he enters his 4th season in Bloomington.  The Hoosiers return 17 starters and want revenge from narrow losses to Penn State each of the last 2 seasons. They lost 28-33 to Penn State as 14-point home dogs in 2018 and outgained the Nittany Lions 554 to 417 in that game.  Last year they lost 27-34 despite once again having the 462 to 371 yardage edge.  They really should have won both those games, and they have not forgotten.  Now they right another wrong in their opener and pull the upset here at home.  Take Indiana.

6* Saturday NCAAF Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Liberty -11

The Key: Hugh Freeze is working his magic with this Liberty program.  The Flames are 4-0 this season and there has been nothing fraudulent about this start.  They just went on the road and beat Syracuse 38-21 handily as 3-point favorites to knock off a Power 5 team.  Their stats are so impressive.  They are gaining 484 YPG and giving up just 275 YPG on defense, outgaining foes by 209 YPG on the season.  Southern Miss has been hit hard by Covid-19.  They will now have their 3rd different head coach for Saturday.  They fired Jay Hopson after a season-opening loss to South Alabama.  Scotty Walden was named interim coach, but now he is out this week with Covid-19.  And that leaves Tim Billings will be in line to coach the team.  The Eagles are 1-3 this season with their only win coming against a terrible North Texas team.  They lost by 11 to South Alabama at home, by 1 to a bad LA Tech team that was missing several players due to Covid, and by 42 to a Tulane team that has shown they aren’t very good either.  Liberty will be the best team they have faced yet, and it’s really not even close.  They give up 40 PPG and 490.5 YPG on the season, so the Flames should be able to name their score and run away with this one.  Bets against any team that is outscored by 7 or more PPG, after 2 straight games where 70 or more points were scored are 50-15 ATS over the last 5 years.  Oddsmakers haven’t caught on to how good this Flames team is just yet, so we’ll keep capitalizing.  Take Liberty.

6* Oklahoma/TCU Big 12 *CA$H COW* on TCU +7

The Key: The TCU Horned Frogs have shown me enough against a brutal schedule to know they can compete with Oklahoma.  They are 1-2, but they only lost by 3 to Iowa Stat and by 7 to Kansas State, who are both 3-0 in Big 12 play.  They also upset Texas 33-31 as 10.5-point road dogs.  Oklahoma needed triple-OT to beat Texas and also lost by 7 to Iowa State.  Oklahoma also lost outright to Kansas State as a 28-point favorite.  The Sooners are way overvalued early in the season, and based on those results, these are pretty even teams.  TCU actually has the better QB in my opinion in Max Duggan, who is completing 68.8% of his passes and averaging 7.8 YPA this year.  And TCU certainly has the better defense in giving up 366.7 YPG compared to 40 PPG and 415 YPG for Oklahoma in conference play.  And the Sooners have a laundry list of injuries right now, while the Horned Frogs are very healthy.  Gary Patterson is 14-4 ATS in home games off a bye week as the coach of TCU.  Take TCU.

7* Illinois/Wisconsin NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Wisconsin -18.5

The Key: The Wisconsin Badgers have had this game circled all offseason.  They lost 23-24 as 29-point favorites at Illinois last year.  Now they are only 18.5-point home favorites in the rematch, a 10.5-point adjustment.  Oddsmakers are putting too much thought into the injury to Wisconsin QB Jack Coan.  It’s a blessing in disguise as redshirt freshman Graham Mertz is about as exciting of a recruit as the Badgers have ever had.  He should be their best QB since Russell Wilson was in Madison.  Wisconsin rebounded from that loss to Illinois to win the West and gave Ohio State a run for its money in the Big Ten Title game.  Now the Badgers have 15 starters back and one of the best defenses in the country with 9 starters back from a unit that gave up 16.9 PPG last year.  Illinois made a bowl game for the first time since 2014 last year.  But they lost their final 3 games, including a 19-point home loss to a bad Northwestern team and a 15-point loss to a bad Cal team in the bowl.  Wisconsin has won 7 straight home meetings with Illinois by an average of 19.1 PPG.  The last 2 in Madison have resulted in Badgers wins by 29 and 45 points.  Take Wisconsin.

6* Ark State/App State Sun Belt *CA$H COW* on Arkansas State +13.5

The Key: Arkansas State has shown they can play with two of the better teams in the country.  They covered in a 13-point loss to Memphis and beat Kansas State outright as 15-point dogs.  They also beat a very good Georgia State team last week.  Their only poor performance came in their first game off a Covid break against Coastal Carolina in which the Chanticleers simply played keep away from them and held the ball for over 41 minutes. The Red Wolves are good enough to hang with Appalachian State, which lost 7-17 to Marshall and isn’t as good as they have been the past few years.  Their two wins came over two bad teams in Charlotte and Campbell, and they only beat Charlotte by 15.  Arkansas State is better than Charlotte and will hang here as they try to prove they are contenders in the Sun Belt.  Take Arkansas State.

6* Saturday NCAAF *UPSET SPECIAL* on Memphis +3.5

The Key: The Memphis Tigers have had this game circled all offseason.  They have lost 13 straight to UCF and enough is enough.  Five of those losses have come by a TD or less and many have been recently.  UCF is ripe for the picking this year as evidenced by their 26-34 loss to Tulsa as 20.5-point favorites last time out.  They are missing several players to injury or personal reasons, and they are the most penalized team in the country.  The Tigers are 14-4 ATS off a loss by 3 points or less to a conference opponent and are coming off a 3-point loss to a very good SMU team on the road.  The Knights are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games off a loss.  The Tigers are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games off a bye week.  The Tigers are 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20 home games.  The home team is 12-1 ATS in the last 13 matchups, and the Tigers are 4-0 ATS int heir last 4 home matchups with UCF.  Take Memphis.

6* Pitt/Miami ACC *CA$H COW* on Pittsburgh +13.5

The Key: The Pitt Panthers could easily be 5-0 this year.  But they are coming off 2 straight crushing 1-point losses and want to rebound in a big way here if they want any chance to win the Coastal.  They take on the Miami Hurricanes, who got a dose of reality latst week in losing 17-42 to Clemson.  They were outgained by 340 yards by the Tigers and held to just 210 total yards.  Pitt has an elite defense that only gives up 264 YPG and 4.2 YPP this year.  Their defense will keep them in this game, and their offense has been great through the air and will test this Miami defense.  This spread is way higher than it should be.  Take Pittsburgh.

6* NCAAF Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Liberty -3

The Key: There has been nothing fraudulent about Liberty’s 3-0 starts with wins over WKU, FIU and LA Monroe.  They are averaging 471 YPG on offense and giving up just 264 YPG on defense, outgaining opponents by 207 YPG.  Syracuse is 1-3 with some terrible stats to boot.  The Orange are averaging just 254 YPG on offense and yielding 476 YPG on defense, getting outgained by 222 YPG.  And Syracuse just lost starting QB Tommy Devito to a season-ending ankle injury late in the loss to Duke last week.  That’s a huge blow as they will now have to turn to Rex Culpepper at quarterback.  Liberty is favored for good reason here and should be a bigger favorite.  Take Liberty.

6* Kentucky/Tennessee SEC *CA$H COW* on Kentucky +6

The Key: The price is right to back Kentucky in a game that I view as very evenly-matched, so getting 6 points is a nice value.  Kentucky really should be 3-0, but since they are 1-2 there’s value in the line.  They outgained Auburn by 60 yards in a loss.  They missed an extra point in overtime against Ole Miss that cost them the game.  And their true colors showed last week in a dominant 24-2 win over Mississippi State.  Tennessee was fortunate to beat South Carolina in the opener.  And they were exposed last week in a 21-44 loss to Georgia.  If they wanted to win the SEC East, they needed to win that game against the Bulldogs.  They will suffer a hangover from that defeat and won’t be fully recovered in time to face this hungry Wildcats squad.  Kentucky is 10-2 ATS off a home win over the last 3 years.  The Wildcats are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games off a win.  The Volunteers are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 against a team with a winning record.  The Vols are 8-17 ATS in their last 25 home games.  The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 matchups.  Take Kentucky.

7* SEC Game of the Year on South Carolina +3.5

The Key: South Carolina played both Tennessee and Florida tough in 2 losses.  They were only outgained by a combined 34 yards by those two teams.  Then they blitzed Vanderbilt 41-7 last week.  And now they will take down Auburn, who are fortunate to be 2-1 instead of 0-3.  The Tigers were outgained by 60 yards by Kentucky and needed a last-second field goal to beat terrible Arkansas.  They also lost by 21 to Georgia.  The Gamecocks are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home games off a win by 21 points or more against an SEC opponent.  Take South Carolina.

7* SMU/Tulane NCAAF Friday Night Lights on SMU -6

The Key: SMU is 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS this year and one of the best Group of 5 teams in the country.  They beat the best Group of 5 team last year in Memphis 30-27 last time out and now have had 2 weeks to get ready for Tulane.  The Green Wave are 2-2 SU & 1-3 ATS and fortunate to be 2-2.  They had to come back from a 24-7 deficit to beat lowly South Alabama 27-24 in their opener.  Then they lost to a bad Navy team 24-27 before beating terrible Southern Miss.  They lost 31-49 last week to Houston despite being +5 in turnovers.  They were outgained 211 to 476 by the Cougars in that defeat.  QB play gives SMU a huge edge here.  Former Texas transfer Shane Buechele is in the 2nd season in Sonny Dykes’ system.  He is completing 69.1% of his passes for 1,326 yards with 10 touchdowns against only 2 interceptions.  Tulane has one of the worst QB situations in college football as both Keon Howard and Michael Pratt have been terrible.  The Green Wave are completing just 43.6% of their passes for 146 yards per game and 5.8 per attempt on the year.  And they lost their top 2 running backs in Tyjae Spears and Corey Dauphine to season-ending injuries, so their offense is in a world of hurt right now.  SMU is going to get its points, and I just don’t think Tulane can keep up with their suspect offense. Take SMU.

6* Georgia State/Arkansas State Sun Belt *CA$H COW* on Georgia State +3.5

The Key: Georgia State returned 16 starters from the team that beat Arkansas State 52-38 last year.  The Panthers had 39 first downs and 722 total yards in that game while limiting Arkansas State to 421 total yards.  The Panthers look like one of the best teams in the Sun Belt through two games.  They took Louisiana to overtime and crushed East Carolina 49-29.  And now the Panthers have nearly 2 weeks to get ready for this game with Arkansas State.  The Red Wolves just played on Saturday against Central Arkansas after getting crushed by Coastal Carolina, 23-52.  So Arkansas State has just 4 days to prepare for Georgia State.  They are at a severe disadvantage here schedule-wise, especially since their team has been hit hard by Covid-19 in the past few weeks.  Take Georgia State.

6* Coastal Carolina/Louisiana-Lafayette Sun Belt *CA$H COW* on Louisiana -7

The Key: Louisiana beat Coastal Carolina 48-7 last year on the road.  If oddsmakers would have set this line before the season, Louisiana would be a minimum of a 14-point favorite and probably higher.  But we are getting Louisiana at -7 here despite the fact that Louisiana is 3-0 and has done what they are supposed to do.  They’ve done even more than that with their upset road win in the opener.  And they did not play well their last 2 games and still won, and part of that was due to a letdown and also Covid-19 problems.  The Rajin’ Cajuns are rested and back healthy now since they haven’t played since September 26th.  Coastal Carolina is also 3-0 but against a much softer schedule in Kansas, Campbell and Arkansas State.  This is a big step up for them and I don’t think they’re ready for it.  Louisiana should show out on this ESPN spotlight game tonight.  Take Louisiana.

6* Miami/Clemson ACC *CA$H COW* on Miami +14

The Key: The Miami Hurricanes finally have a QB in Houston transfer D’Eriq King.  The rest has fallen into place as the Hurricanes are off to a 3-0 start this year.  They beat a pesky UAB team 31-14, had no trouble in beating a good Louisville team 47-34 on the road, and blasted Florida State 52-10 at home.  Now the Hurricanes have had 2 weeks to get ready for Clemson after having a bye last week.  Meanwhile, Clemson played Virginia last week in a 41-23 win, failing to cover as 28-point favorites.  And they weren’t very impressive at all as they only outgained Virginia by 49 yards.  This is easily Clemson’s toughest test yet after also playing lowly Wake Forest and The Citadel.  The Tigers always come close to getting upset every year in one game, and this appears to be the one.  King is completing 67% of his passes with 6 TD and 0 INT, while also rushing for 157 yards and a score.  He is the game changer the Hurricanes have been missing, and he’s the reason they have a chance to hang with Clemson Saturday.  Take Miami.

6* FSU/Notre Dame ACC *CA$H COW* on Florida State +21

The Key: You won’t find the Florida State Seminoles at a better price than they are right now.  That’s because they are 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS to start the year.  But this team still has a ton of talent, and should have more continuity now under first-year head coach Mike Norvell.  Notre Dame only beat an 0-4 Duke team 27-13 in the opener.  So if Duke can hang around, Florida State certainly can.  The Fighting Irish are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games off 2 consecutive home wins by 14 points or more.  Notre Dame is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 home games off 2 consecutive home wins.  The price is right to back the Seminoles.  Take Florida State.

7* Big 12 Game of the Month on Kansas State +9

The Key: The Kansas State Wildcats are now 2-0 in Big 12 play.  They upset Oklahoma on the road as 28-point dogs and handled their business in a 31-21 win over Texas Tech at home.  Now the Wildcats continue to lack the respect they deserve as 9-point dogs at TCU.  The Horned Frogs are getting respect because they upset Texas on the road.  But Texas trailed Texas Tech by 15 points with under 3 minutes left in regulation, so they aren’t very good.  Kansas State is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games as road dogs.  The dog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 matchups.  The Horned Frogs are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games off an upset win as a road dog.  The Wildcats are 41-20-1 ATS in their last 62 games as underdogs.  Take Kansas State.

6* Tulane/Houston NCAAF *Total* Annihilator on OVER 59

The Key: Michael Pratt took over early in the 1st quarter for the terrible Keon Howard and promptly led Tulane to 66 points in a 66-24 victory over Southern Miss last time out.  It’s a big upgrade at the QB position with his dual-threat skills.  And Tulane should keep it rolling offensively against Houston this week.  The Cougars have an offensive genius as a head coach in Dana Holgorsen, and he is working with 10 returning starters on offense and a terrible defense.  There should be some offensive fireworks in this one.  These teams combined for 69 points last year and 65 points two years ago, so this one should have no problem topping the 59-point total.  The Green Wave are 11-2 OVER in their last 13 games after scoring 20 points or more at halftime in 2 straight games.  The OVER is 10-4 in Cougars last 14 conference games.  Take the OVER.

7* SEC Game of the Month on Vanderbilt +21

The Key: Vanderbilt showed they are going to have one of the best defenses in the SEC when they only lost 12-17 to Texas A&M as a 31.5-point dog last week.  They returned all 11 starters on D, and Pro Football Focus actually graded their D-Line as the best unit in the country after that performance.  LSU’s defense was shredded for 44 points and 623 passing yards in their upset loss to Mississippi State last week.  This is an LSU team that lost 15 players to the NFL in the offseason.  That’s simply irreplaceable.  The road team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 matchups.  The Tigers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games against a team with a losing record.  Take Vanderbilt.

6* Texas Tech/K-State Big 12 *CA$H COW* on Kansas State -2

The Key: “We better put it behind us in a. Hurry or we’re going to not be ready on Saturday,” Kansas State head coach Chris Klieman said. “What you did today is great, but it pales in comparison to what you can do the next day.  Right now, we have to move on.  That’s been our mantra for a year-plus.  Stack great days and don’t worry about yesterday, worry about today.  Let’s win this dang day.”  I love the quotes coming from Klieman leading up to this game against Texas Tech.  And I think with the veteran leadership the Wildcats have, they can avoid the dreaded letdown off their incredible upset of Oklahoma as 28-point dogs last week.  I think getting humbled in their opener by Arkansas State, losing outright as 15-point dogs will make it easier to avoid that letdown.  Texas Tech blew a 15-point lead in the final minutes and lost in OT to Texas last week.  That’s harder to recover from.  And remember Texas Tech only beat Houston Baptist 35-33 as a 40.5-point favorite in their opener.  The fact of the matter is Kansas State is the better team in this matchup, and if they just show up with their ‘B Game’ they will win and cover.  The Red Raiders are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games off a SU loss.  Texas Tech is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 road games.  The Wildcats are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 conference games.  The Wildcats are 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last 9 matchups with Texas Tech.  Take Kansas State.

6* Sun Belt *CA$H COW* on Arkansas State -3

The Key: Arkansas State has been impressive against two tough opponents this year.  They only lost by 13 on the road to Memphis and upset Kansas State as 15-point road underdogs.  Then Kansas State went on to beat Oklahoma outright as a 28-point dog last week.  And keep in mind the Red Wolves didn’t have 10 starters for that game against K-State due to Covid-19.  Now they should be back to full strength this week and blast Coastal Carolina, which has played a much easier schedule in beating Kansas and Campbell thus far.  The Red Wolves have won all 3 matchups with Coastal Carolina over the last 3 years by an average of 21 PPG.  Coastal Carolina is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 home games.  Take Arkansas State.

6* Saturday NCAAF *UPSET SPECIAL* on West Virginia ML +115

The Key: Neal Brown is in his 2nd season at West Virginia.  They only had 7 starters back last year in his first season and still managed to win 5 games, including 3 Big 12 road games, which is no small feat.  But now Brown has 14 starters back this year and this should be one of the most improved teams in the country.  Baylor is the team rebuilding with just 9 starters back for new head coach Dave Aranda.  The Bears’ 47-14 win over Kansas last week was so misleading.  They only outgained Kansas by 24 yards and managed just 352 total yards.  But they got 2 special teams touchdowns.  West Virginia played Oklahoma State much tougher than the 13-27 final score would indicate last week as well.  The Mountaineers outgained the Cowboys by 11 yards and held them to just 342 total yards.  West Virginia only lost 14-17 at Baylor as 17.5-point dogs last year.  It’s revenge time as WVU looks to improve to 5-0 SU in home matchups with Baylor since joining the Big 12.  Take West Virginia on the Money Line.

6* South Carolina/Florida SEC *CA$H COW* on South Carolina +17

The Key: This has been a very closely contested series between South Carolina and Florida through in the year.  Each of the last 7 matchups were decided by 13 points or fewer, so with this 17-point spread I like the price we are getting on the Gamecocks.  South Carolina only lost 27-31 to a very good Tennessee team last week.  Florida beat Ole Miss 51-35, but gave up 613 total yards in the process and only outgained the Rebels by 29 yards.  That’s an Ole Miss team in transition with a new head coach in Lane Kiffin.  The Gamecocks are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games as road underdogs.  The road team is 5-1-1 ATS in the last 7 matchups.  Take South Carolina.

6* NC State/VA Tech ACC *CA$H COW* on Virginia Tech -6.5

The Key: The Virginia Tech Hokies are one of the most experienced teams in the country with 18 starters back this year.  NC State went 4-8 lsat year and has 15 starters back.  But the defense is clearly atrocious after giving up 42 points to Wake Forest last week.  Virginia Tech should be able to score at will and offer a lot more resistance on D than Wake did.  NC State is 1-8 ATS when the total is 56.5 to 63 over the last 3 years.  The Wolfpack are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games as underdogs.  NC State is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games off a win.    The Wolfpack are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 road games.  The Hokies are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 conference games.  The Hokies are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 matchups.  Take Virginia Tech.

6* Vanderbilt/Texas A&M SEC *CA$H COW* on Vanderbilt +30.5

The Key: Texas A&M is getting too much love early in the season ranked as a Top 10 team off an 8-5 season.  Jimbo Fisher is doing a good job recruiting but hasn’t put it together.  No question the Aggies will be good this year, but not 30.5 points better than Vanderbilt, which returns all 11 starters on defense and should have their best stop unit of the Derek Mason era.  The Aggies didn’t beat a single SEC team by more than 24 points last year.  Vanderbilt is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 road games with a total between 45.5 and 49 points.  Such a low total definitely favors the +30.5 underdog.  Take Vanderbilt.

6* FSU/Miami ACC *CA$H COW* on Miami -11

The Key: Miami finally has its QB in Houston transfer D’Eriq King and the Hurricanes look the part thus far.  They beat UAB 31-14 in their opener, and that’s a UAB team that just beat South Alabama 42-10 on Thursday.  That’s a South Alabama team that upset Southern Miss and also nearly upset Tulane.  Then Miami beat Louisville 47-34 last week with 3 scoring plays of 47 or more yards.  This is a very explosive offense with King, and the defense has plenty of studs to shut teams down.  FSU was thoroughly outplayed in its opener, a 13-16 home loss to Georgia Tech as 13-point favorites.  The Yellow Jackets outgained them by 131 yards.  Now FSU will be without its new head coach in Mike Norvell due to Covid-19.  Miami has won three straight over FSU, including a 27-10 road win last year.  The Hurricanes are even better this season with King.  Take Miami.

7* ACC Game of the Month on Virginia -4

The Key: Virginia has 15 starters back from a team that beat Duke 48-14 last year.  Duke lost by 14 to Notre Dame and by 20 to Boston College to start the year, so it’s clear the Blue Devils aren’t any better than they were last season.  This is a very short number for the defending Coastal Division champs to be laying to open their season.  Take Virginia.

6* Mississippi State/LSU SEC *CA$H COW* on Mississippi State +17

The Key: LSU lost a record 14 players to the NFL.  You can make that 15 now with receiver Ja’Marr Chase and his 1,780 yards and 20 TD from last season deciding to sit out and get ready for the NFL.  I just can’t see LSU being on their game in the opener with all that they have lost.  I know the situation isn’t great for Mississippi State either with a new head coach in Mike Leach, but at least their an experienced team with 11 returning starters and plenty of senior leadership with 13 projected starters being seniors.  I love the addition of Stanford transfer KJ Kostello at QB to run Leach’s Air Raid system.  This number just feels a bit too wide with all that LSU lost.  Take Mississippi State.

6* UAB/South Alabama NCAAF *CA$H COW* on South Alabama +7

The Key: South Alabama won outright as a 15-point dogs at Southern Miss in its opener and only lost 24-27 as a 10-point dog to Tulane in their next game.  And they led 24-6 over Tulane and should have won.  I actually think this is a step down in class for South Alabama against UAB Thursday night.  UAB only beat Central Arkansas by 10 as a 21.5-point favorite and gave up 35 points to that FCS team.  UAB also lost by 17 to Miami as a 15.5-point dog.  UAB suffered a big blow when starting QB Tyler Johnson hurt his shoulder against Miami and backup Bryce Lucero came in and completed just 33% of his 12 attempts.  Lucero is a redshirt freshman and cannot be trusted.  South Alabama is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 home games.  The Jaguars are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as underdogs.  The Blazers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games.  Take South Alabama.

6* Wake Forest/NC State ACC *CA$H COW* on NC State -1

The Key: NC State is a prime bounce-back candidate this year off a disappointing 4-8 season.  The Wolfpack had won 9 games each of the previous 2 seasons.  But they lost 14 players from those 2 teams combined to the NFL.  So last year was a rebuilding season.  Now the Wolfpack have 15 starters back this year and a ton of talent, especially on offense where 10 starters are back.  Wake Forest looks like the rebuilding team this year.  They went 8-5 last year but now only return 11 starters, including just 3 on offense.  They lose their QB, leading rusher and leading receiver.  NC State wants to avenge its embarrassing 10-44 loss to Wake Forest last year, and you can bet they’ve been using it as motivation all offseason.  The Wolfpack will be ready to play at home Saturday.  The home team is 16-4 ATS in the last 20 matchups.  Take NC State.

7* Miami/Louisville ACC *HEAVY HITTER* on Louisville -2.5

The Key: The Louisville Cardinals have 16 starters back from a team that went 8-5 last year in Scott Satterfield’s first season coming over from Appalachian State.  They are loaded everywhere and it showed last week as they outgained Western Kentucky by 239 yards and put up 487 yards of offense.  They will now take down Miami and avenge a 27-52 loss at Miami last year.  But they outgained Miami by 47 yards in that game and never should have lost by 25.  They lost the turnover battle 3-0 which proved to be the difference.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 matchups.  The Cardinals are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games.  The Hurricanes are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 road games.  Take Louisville.

6* Syracuse/Pitt ACC *CA$H COW* on Syracuse +21.5

The Key: This line is out of whack due to what happened last week.  Syracuse lost 6-31 to a UNC team that is a serious contender to win the ACC.  Pitt beat Austin Peay 55-0 and easily covered the 26.5-point spread.  And keep in mind Syracuse was only trailing that juggernaut of a UNC team 6-10 entering the 4th quarter before things spiraled out of control in the final period.  Pitt hasn’t been this big of a favorite over an FBS opponent since the Panthers were favored by 24 over Syracuse in 2016.  They only won that game by 15 points.  The Panthers are 8-19 ATS in their last 27 games as home favorites.  Take Syracuse.

6* Coastal Carolina/Kansas NCAAF *BAILOUT* on Coastal Carolina +7

The Key: Coastal Carolina beat Kansas 12-7 last year as identical 7-point dogs.  I think we could see more of the same here in the 2020 rematch.  Coastal has 14 starters back while Kansas only has 11 back.  Coastal got in 15 spring practices, more than almost anyone in the country.  Kansas got in 0 spring practices.  Kansas has to break in a new starting QB this year, while Coastal gets back 8 starters on offense, including its top 2 QB’s from last year in Payton and Carpenter.  Plus redshirt freshman QB Grayson McCall is a stud, so they have good options there no matter who they go with.  The Chanticleers return their top 3 tacklers on D.  They had 4 losses by 7 points or fewer last year in their 5-7 campaign.  This is the 3rd year for head coach Jamey Chadwell and his best team yet.  Take Coastal Carolina.

7* Saturday NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on South Alabama +11

The Key: This South Alabama team looks very promising with the way they closed out last season and now have 15 starters back.  They were competitive in every game when freshman Desmond Trotter took the reigns at quarterback.  They went toe-to-toe with Louisiana in a 27-37 loss and beat Arkansas State 34-30.  Those were 2 of the best teams in the Sun Belt last year.  Trotter has accuracy and mobility, plus smart decision making as he threw 8 touchdowns against only 2 interceptions last year.  He picked up right where he left off in the opener, leading South Alabama to a 32-21 upset win over Southern Miss as 15-point dogs.  Trotter threw for 299 yards and 2 TD while also rushing for 41 yards while leading South Alabama to 526 total yards in the win.  Tulane only has 12 starters back this year and loses it QB, top 2 receivers and top 2 RB’s from last year.  This is another game that the Jaguars have a chance to win outright, especially with a game under their belts already.  Take South Alabama.

6* Louisiana/Iowa State NCAAF *CA$H COW* on Iowa State -11

The Key: Louisiana won a school record 11 games last year and is getting too much respect from oddsmakers entering 2020 because of it.  They lost 3 picks to the NFL draft, including their top 2 offensive linemen.  They will be without their top 3 receivers from last year now that Jamal Bell is out for the year with a knee injury.  They are also without both Brian Smith Jr. and Calif Gossett at receiver as both were expected to add depth.  I don’t expect the chemistry to be very good in the opener between QB Levi Lewis and his receivers.  Louisiana was very fortunate to only give up 19.7 PPG last year when they gave up 372 YPG, an average of a huge 18.9 yards per point allowed.  There will be some regression on that side of the ball.  Iowa State has one of the best defenses in the Big 12 with 8 starters back from a unit that gave up 25.9 PPG and 369 YPG last year.  They will shut down this Louisiana offense.  The Cyclones only return 5 starters on offense, but they are their 2 best players in QB Brock Purdy and RB Breece Hall.  They are just better everywhere on the field, and that will show up on the scoreboard here.  The Rajin Cajuns are 1-5 ATS in their last 5 against Big 12 teams.  Take Iowa State.

6* MTSU/Army NCAAF *CA$H COW* on Army -3.5

The Key: Army went 11-2 in 2018 but plummeted to 5-8 in 2019.  They weren’t nearly as bad as their record last year as they still outscored their opponents 28.3 to 23.0 on the season and outgained them 379 to 342 on average.  They simply had bad luck in close games as they lost 6 games by single-digits.  The Black Knights have 12 starters back this year which is more than they had each of the last 2 seasons.  I especially like the defense with 7 starters back from a unit that gave up 23 PPG.  The offense should be fine with Jabari Lewis at QB.  He actually averaged 6.4 YPC last year compared to 5.1 for starter Hopkins.  And he completed 16 of 20 passes for 80% completions, so he may even be better than Hopkins was.  Middle Tennessee went 4-8 last year thanks to an awful defense that gave up 29.9 PPG and 459 YPG.  They only have 5 starters back on D and will be terrible again.  They gave up 194 RYPG and 4.9 YPC last year, which is bad news going up against this triple-option of Army.  The Black Knights will be able to move the ball on the ground at will in this game.  Take Army.

6* Thursday NCAAF *CA$H COW* on South Alabama +15

The Key: This South Alabama team looks very promising with the way they closed out last season and now have 15 starters back.  They were competitive in every game when freshman Desmond Trotter took the reigns at quarterback.  They went toe-to-toe with Louisiana in a 27-37 loss and beat Arkansas State 34-30.  Those were 2 of the best teams in the Sun Belt last year.  Trotter has accuracy and mobility, plus smart decision making as he threw 8 touchdowns against only 2 interceptions last year.  Southern Miss should be a pretty good team with 14 starters back from a squad that went 7-6 last year.  But I don’t expect them to come close to winning this game by more than 2 touchdowns in the opener.  Take South Alabama.

7* Clemson/LSU NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on LSU -5 

The Key: The LSU Tigers have an unstoppable offense and one of the best offenses we’ve ever seen in college football.  And their defense has been lights out down the stretch.  Clemson was fortunate to beat Ohio State and has played a much easier schedule than LSU this year.  The Tigers will have the home field edge with this game being played in New Orleans.  They cap off a tremendous season with a win and cover over Clemson Monday.  Take LSU. 

7* Miami (OH)/Lafayette Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on Miami Ohio +14 

The Key: The Miami Ohio Redhawks are playing in just their 2nd bowl game in the last 9 years.  They only lost 16-17 to SEC power Mississippi State as 14-point dogs in their last bowl game in 2016.  And Chuck Martin really thrives in the role of the dog as the coach of Miami Ohio.  They came out of nowhere to win the MAC after upsetting Central Michigan in Detroit.  And Martin is 9-1 ATS off an upset win as a dog as the coach of Miami.  Martin is 32-17 ATS as a dog as the coach of Miami overall.  Take Miami. 

7* Tennessee/Indiana Gator Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on Tennessee -3 

The Key: There’s a huge difference in this game that should have Tennessee favored by more than 3 over Indiana.  The Vols have gone 4-5 against teams that are 6-6 or better this season.  The Hoosiers have gone 0-4 against teams that are 6-6 or better.  So as you can see, Tennessee played a very tough schedule compared to Indiana and actually beat 4 teams that were bowl eligible while Indiana went 0-4 against those teams.  The Vols are 21-4 ATS in their last 25 road games off 2 consecutive games where they forced one or fewer turnovers.  The Vols are 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall with that one loss coming on the road at Alabama.  Take Tennessee. 

7* Baylor/Georgia Sugar Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on Georgia -4 

The Key: This line has dropped enough to where there’s value on Georgia laying this small number.  They have the talent edge.  And I think they will learn from last year’s loss to Texas where they were upset as 13.5-point favorites in the Sugar Bowl.  They didn’t want to be playing in that game last year.  I think the fact that they were blown out by LSU in the SEC Championship makes it easier for them to accept their fate in the Sugar Bowl this year.  Baylor went to OT against Oklahoma with a chance to make the 4-team playoff.  I think that loss is a loss harder to get over than Georgia’s loss to LSU.  And we saw Oklahoma lose by 35 points and give up 7 straight touchdowns to open the game against LSU last week.  The Big 12 has not looked good with a 1-4 record in bowls thus far.  Georgia is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 neutral site games and 8-1 ATS in its last 9 neutral site games as a favorite.  Georgia is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games off an ATS loss.  This will feel like a home game for the Bulldogs being played in SEC country in New Orleans.  Take Georgia. 

7* Georgia State/Wyoming Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on Wyoming -7 

The Key: The difference between these 2 teams defensively is about as big a difference as you will see in bowl season.  Wyoming only gives up 17.8 PPG and Georgia State gives up 36.1 PPG.  I usually like to back the better defensive team in bowl games.  Wyoming is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games against Sun Bel Teams.  Georgia State hasn’t been the same since QB Dan Ellington tore his ACL.  Give him credit for playing through it, but he hasn’t been the same dual threat QB he was before the injury.  They lost 3 of their last 4 games by an average of 23.7 PPG.  Their only win was at home against South Alabama.  Georgia State is 2-8-2 ATS in its last 12 games against a team with a winning record.  Take Wyoming. 

7* WMU/WKU Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on Western Michigan +3.5 

The Key: The Western Michigan Broncos are hungry for a bowl win after losing 4 of their last 5 bowl games.  But keep in mind they played a tough bowl schedule losing to the likes of Wisconsin, BYU, Purdue and Air Force.  The only bowl game they won during this stretch was against Middle Tennessee 45-31, which is a fellow Conference USA team to Western Kentucky.  I’ll side with WMU’s offense, which averages 34.2 PPG and 457 YPG this year.  WKU only puts up 25.6 PPG and struggles to get margin due to their poor offense.  I like the price we are getting with the Broncos are 3.5-point dogs.  The Hilltoppers are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games as a favorite.  The Broncos are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games off an ATS loss and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games off a SU loss.  Take Western Michigan. 

7* Bowl Total of the Year on Clemson/Ohio State UNDER 63.5 

The Key: Clemson and Ohio State have arguably the 2 best defenses in the country.  Ohio State gives up 12.5 PPG while Clemson allows 10.6 PPG this year.  There’s no way this total should be set this high with these 2 defenses.  Ohio State and Clemson have great offensive numbers, but they have done most of their damage against bad defenses, especially in Clemson’s case.  Texas A&M held Clemson to 24 points and Ohio State can do the same.  Penn State and Wisconsin held Ohio State to 38 or fewer points in all 3 of those games.  Clemson can hold Ohio State below 30.  Clemson is 6-0 UNDER with 2 or more weeks rest over the last 3 years and we’re only seeing 40.9 PPG in this situation.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Clemson’s last 4 semifinal playoff games.  The UNDER is 4-1 in Buckeyes last 5 bowl games.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Buckeyes last 6 games against a team with a winning record.  Take the UNDER.

6* Iowa State/Notre Dame Bowl *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 54.5 

The Key: Two teams with great defenses square off in the Camping World Bowl between Iowa State and Notre Dame.  The Fighting Irish hold opponents to 10.3 PPG and 77 YPG less than their season averages this year.  The Cyclones have one of the best defenses in the Big 12, holding foes to 5 PPG & 50 YPG less than their season averages.  Notre Dame actually runs the ball more than they throw it, attempting 36 rushes per game.  Iowa State runs it more than most Big 12 teams with 32 attempts per game.  The UNDER is 21-10-2 in Iowa State’s last 33 games overall.  The UNDER is 6-0-1 in Iowa State’s last 7 bowl games.  The UNDER is 8-2 in Notre Dame’s last 10 neutral site games as a favorite.  The UNDER is 13-2 in Iowa State’s last 15 games on turf.  The UNDER is 9-0 in Iowa State’s last 9 games after a game where they committed zero turnovers.  Take the UNDER. 

6* Memphis/Penn State Bowl *CA$H COW* on Penn State -7 

The Key: The Memphis Tigers had a great year in the AAC.  But this is a big step up in class against Penn State, which will be the best opponent they have faced yet this year.  And Memphis just lost head coach Mike Norvell to Florida State.  The Tigers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 bowl games and 1-10 ATS in their last 11 December games.  Penn State’s defense gives up only 14.1 PPG and will have an answer for Memphis’ offense.  It will be men amongst boys with their defensive line up against Memphis’ offensive line.  Take Penn State. 

6* USC/Iowa Bowl *CA$H COW* on USC +2.5 

The Key: I’ll side with USC’s athletes and explosive offense over Iowa’s physicality and poor offense in the Holiday Bowl.  USC is loaded at receiver, and senior WR Michael Pittman will play in this game.  Freshman QB Kedon Slovis is completing 72% of his passes with 28 touchdowns and only 9 interceptions.  Slovis threw for over 400 yards in each of his final 3 games to close out the season with 12 touchdowns and only 1 pick.  He faced 2 great defenses too in ASU and Cal.  Iowa hasn’t faced an offense as good as USC all season.  And I don’t think the Hawkeyes can keep up if they get behind.  Iowa is averaging just 19 PPG in their final 8 games this year.  The underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 Holiday Bowls.  Clay Helton has retained his job and offensive coordinator Graham Harrell will stay, giving USC some continuity and some motivation to build for next year.  Helton is 9-2 ATS after gaining 525 or more yards last game as the coach of USC.  Take USC. 

7* Michigan State/Wake Forest Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on Michigan State -3.5 

The Key: It could be Mark Dantonio’s final game at Michigan State.  The Spartans won their final 2 games to make a bowl game, so they clearly want to be here.  Michigan State played a much tougher schedule than Wake Forest with all 6 losses coming to bowl teams.  Their schedule ranked 34th while Wake played the 69th schedule.  Wake has lost 3 of its last 4 games and a big part of that is losing WR Sage Surratt to injury.  Surratt had 66 receptions for 1,001 yards and 11 touchdowns in 9 games this year.  Michigan State will win the battle of the line of scrimmage on both sides and that will be key to victory.  Big Ten teams are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS against ACC teams in the Pinstripe Bowl.  Bets on teams who have been beaten by the spread by 49 or more points in their last 5 games in December games are 44-18 ATS since 1992.  Take Michigan State. 

7* Eastern Michigan/Pitt Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on Eastern Michigan +13 

The Key: The Pitt Panthers are 7-5 this year, but all 7 wins have come by 10 points or less. That’s a 12-0 angle supporting the Eastern Michigan Eagles with this 13-point spread.  Pitt doesn’t have a good enough offense to put away Eastern Michigan.  The Panthers are scoring just 20.1 PPG on the season and 18.0 PPG in road games.  I’d argue EMU has the better offense.  The Eagles are scoring 29.1 PPG and they throw for 280 yards per game as QB Mike Glass is certainly an underrated signal caller.  The Eagles are 21-7 ATS in their lsat 28 games as an underdog.  Eastern Michigan is 17-5 ATS in its last 22 non-conference games.  Take Eastern Michigan. 

7* BYU/Hawaii Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on BYU -2 

The Key: BYU played a tougher schedule than Hawaii and I trust them more to win this game from what I’ve seen from both teams.  BYU went 2-2 against Top 30 teams with wins over USC and Boise State, while Hawaii went 0-3 against Top 30 teams.  BYU also beat Tennessee on the road and thumped Utah State 42-14 on the road.  That’s a Utah State team that is probably just as good as Hawaii in the Mountain West.  Hawaii is 1-9 ATS off a road loss over the last 3 years.  Nick Rolovich is 0-7 ATS off a conference road loss as the coach of Hawaii.  Take BYU. 

6* UAB/Appalachian State Bowl *BAILOUT* on Appalachian State -17 

The Key: Appalachian State went 12-1 this season and lost their head coach for a 2nd straight year.  Last year they went on to beat Middle Tennessee 45-13 after losing head coach Scott Satterfield to Louisville.  And now they will crush this UAB team.  UAB was blasted 6-49 by FAU in the C-USA title game.  They were also blasted by Tennessee and Southern Miss earlier this year.  Their only wins came against bad teams as they played the 138th-ranked schedule in the country.  App State is outscoring opponents by 19.2 PPG on the year, so they have no problem winning by margin.  Sun Belt teams are 11-3 ATS in the New Orleans Bowl since 2005.  Take Appalachian State. 

7* Kent State/Utah State ESPN 2 Friday Night Lights on Kent State +7 

The Key: Teams that had 3 or fewer wins the previous season and made a bowl game have gone 16-2 ATS in their bowl games over the last 3 years.  Kent State is a qualifier.  The Golden Flashes overcame the odds and pulled out 3 straight upsets to close the season to get to 6-6.  They obviously want to be here.  I don’t think the same can be said for Utah State, which won 11 games last year and dropped to 7 wins this year.  6-6 teams in general have gone 60% ATS since 2000 in bowls and 6-6 teams off a win as an underdog have gone 70% ATS since 2000.  Take Kent State. 

6* Hawaii/Boise State MWC *CA$H COW* on Hawaii +14 

The Key: This is a rematch from an earlier meeting this season.  Hawaii lost 37-59 at Boise State.  But that game was much closer than the final score as Hawaii was only outgained by 80 yards.  The Warriors gave the game away by losing the turnover battle 4-1 and losing three fumbles.  That’s very unlikely to happen again.  The Warriors have been lacking respect most the season and can cap off a 10-win season here with a victory.  They will give Boise State everything they can handle.  And fortunately for Hawaii, the weather is expected to be perfect in Boise with temps close to 50 and no precipitation.  Bets on dogs of 10.5 to 21 points who are revenging a loss with 4-plus more total starters and an experienced QB returning against a team with a new QB are 41-13 ATS since 1992.  Take Hawaii. 

7* Cincinnati/Memphis AAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Cincinnati +9.5 

The Key: The Cincinnati Bearcats and Memphis Tigers are in rare air here.  It’s only the 4th time in the playoff era that teams square off in the final week of the regular season and again in the conference championship game.  The underdogs in this situation have gone 3-0 ATS in the previous 3 tries.  And I expect that trend to continue here as Cincinnati keeps it close and covers this 9.5-point spread.  Cincinnati only lost 24-34 in their first meeting at Memphis last week.  But that game was closer than the final score as the Bearcats lost the turnover battle 3-1.  And now after playing a backup QB last week, the Bearcats get their starter back this week in Desmond Ridder.  The Tigers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 December games.  Take Cincinnati. 

6* Saturday NCAAF *Total* Annihilator on LA-Lafayette/App State UNDER 58 

The Key: Lafayette and Appalachian State are in rare air here.  They will meet for the 4th time in 2 seasons after meeting in the regular season and the conference title game last year.  They also met in the regular season and will meet in the conference title game this year.  They have combined for just 44, 49 and 24 points in the previous 3 meetings, including that 24-point effort in their first meeting this year.  That’s an average of only 39 combined points per game.  I think the price is right to pull the trigger on the UNDER in this 4th matchup because of the familiarity of these two teams.  Lafayette is 9-1 UNDER in its last 10 games against teams that put up 31 or more points per game.  Take the UNDER. 

7* Oregon/Utah NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Oregon +7 

The Key: This number has been adjusted too much in Utah’s favor based on the fact that they need to win to get into the four-team playoff.  They haven’t been in very many of these National TV games this season, and it’s a lot of pressure on them.  There is zero pressure on Oregon because they will likely be going to the Rose Bowl win or lose.  I’ll side with the loose, free-rolling Ducks in this game tonight catching a touchdown.  Oregon is 44-14 ATS in its lsat 58 games after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game.  This is an elite Oregon defense and the best defense that Utah has faced yet.  It’s going to be an ugly, low-scoring game with some bad weather, which favors the underdog.  The Ducks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games off an ATS loss.  Take Oregon. 

6* Mountain West *CA$H COW* on San Jose State +2.5 

The Key: Fresno State won the Mountain West last year but lost almost everyone from that team and have had a disappointing 4-7 season.  Now they won’t be going to a bowl and look like they may have quit because they aren’t playing for anything.  They have lost 3 straight coming in.  Their only 4 wins this year came against Sacramento State by 14, New Mexico State by 13, UNLV and Hawaii by 3.  They have beaten some bad teams outside of Hawaii.  San Jose State is one of the most improved teams in the country.  They have 5 losses by 10 points or less including losses to bowl teams in Nevada by 3, SDSU by 10, Boise by 10 and Hawaii by 2.  They have proven they can play with almost anyone in the conference.  They will want to go out a winner on Senior Night here and cap off a nice season.  San Jose State is 8-1 ATS against good offensive teams averaging 5.9 YPP or more over the last 2 years.  Fresno is 6-18 ATS in its last 24 road games off a home loss.  Take San Jose State. 

7* NCAA Football Game of the Year on Florida Atlantic -9 

The Key: The FAU Owls would clinch Conference USA’s East division with a win Saturday over Southern Miss.  They will be hungry and will show up on Senior Day.  I question Southern Miss’ motivation after losing 10-28 at home to Western Kentucky last week.  Losing that game meant they don’t control their own destiny now.  They lost to LA Tech and LA Tech hosts UTSA as a 20.5-point favorite this week.  There’s almost zero chance for the Golden Eagles to win the West Division now.  I think they suffer a hangover from that loss.  Plus, the Golden Eagles lost QB Jack Abraham to a leg injury in that game against Western Kentucky and he’s highly questionable to return this week.  He means everything to their team.  FAU is 9-1 ATS against teams that complete 62% or more of their passes over the last 3 years.  Take Florida Atlantic. 

6* Conference USA *CA$H COW* on Western Kentucky -9 

The Key: The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers should be more than 9-point home favorites over the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders today.  WKU is coming off two straight impressive upsets with a 28-10 win at Southern Miss and a 45-19 win at Arkansas.  They are 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS in conference play this year with their only losses coming to FAU by 11 and Marshall by 3, two of the best teams in the conference.  Middle Tennessee is 0-5 on the road this season and losing by 19.2 PPG.  The Blue Raiders are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 against a team with a winning record.  The Hilltoppers are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 conference games.  The Hilltoppers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 against a team with a losing record.  Take Western Kentucky. 

7* Sun Belt Game of the Year on South Alabama +11 

The Key: Arkansas State has been eliminated from Sun Belt title contention.  And they have won a lot of close games here of late that has them getting too much respect from the books.  Their last 3 wins have come by 1, 5 and 7 points.  And I think this game against South Alabama goes down to the wire.  South Alabama only lost by 10 at home to LA-Lafayette 2 weeks ago, which is the best team in the Sun Belt alongside Appalachian State.  They only lost by 2 to Texas State and by 13 to Georgia State in their last 2 road games.  They are back home here where they have been very competitive with a 3-point loss to Georgia Southern as 10-point dogs as well.  South Alabama upset Arkansas State 24-19 as 13-point home dogs 2 years ago.  The Jaguars will look at this game as their Super Bowl on Senior Day.  The Jaguars are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games against a team with a winning record.  The Red Wolves are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS win.  Take South Alabama. 

7* Western Michigan/NIU MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Western Michigan -8.5 

The Key: I like the situation for Western Michigan tonight.  The Broncos need a win to clinch a trip to the MAC title game.  They are coming off a bye week, so they’ve had 2 full weeks to get ready for Northern Illinois.  And they’re facing an NIU team that just suffered their 7th loss last Thursday in a 17-45 setback to Eastern Michigan at home.  They won’t be going to a bowl game now, and they won’t be very hungry tonight because of it.  NIU is 0-6 ATS in home games against good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better over the last 3 years.  The Huskies are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 home games against a team with a winning record.  Take Western Michigan.

7* Pac-12 Game of the Month on UCLA +14 

The Key: UCLA is playing well in the 2nd half of the season once again this year.  The Bruins have gone 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last 4 games overall with 3 double-digit wins over Stanford, ASU and Colorado.  They did lose badly to Utah on the road last week, but that was due to committing 5 turnovers and not cashing in any red zone trips, and they had a bunch of them.  They will be able to move the ball much more effectively and score points on this soft USC defense.  UCLA has played USC tough the last 2 years, upsetting the Trojans as 3-point home dogs last year and only losing by 5 as nearly identical 14.5-point dogs in 2017.  USC is 2-10 ATS off 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 years.  Take UCLA. 

6* Texas A&M/Georgia SEC *CA$H COW* on Texas A&M +13 

The Key: Georgia feels like it cleared its final hurdle last week with a huge 21-14 win at Auburn that clinched the SEC East.  And now I think they won’t be giving Texas A&M the attention they deserve this week.  Texas A&M is more than capable of coming into Georgia and giving the Bulldogs a game.  The Aggies are the fresher team after having a bye 2 weeks ago.  They have been blowing out teams in the 2nd half of the season with a 19-point win over Mississippi State, a 31-point win over UTSA and a 24-point win over South Carolina in their last 3 games coming in.  Georgia is coming off that physical game at Auburn and there’s no question the Aggies will be the fresher team.  Jimbo Fisher is 6-0 ATS after allowing 75 or fewer rushing yards as the coach of Texas A&M.  Fisher is 10-2 ATS against good defensive teams that allow 285 yards per game or fewer in all games as a coach.  Georgia is 0-8 ATS in its last 8 home games off 3 or more consecutive ATS wins.  Take Texas A&M. 

6* NCAAF Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on UMass +40.5 

The Key: BYU clinched a bowl last week with a 42-10 win over Idaho State as 33.5-point favorites.  They had a chance to punch it in from the 1-yard line and took a knee.  And I think they will show similar mercy to 1-10 UMass this week.  This is the final game of the season for UMass, so we should be getting their best effort.  They actually played Northwestern a lot tougher than the 6-45 final showed last week.  They were only outgained by 100 yards by the Wildcats and managed 310 total yards.  Look for BYU to run, run and run some more in the 2nd half to try and get this game over with.  It will favor UMass staying within the number.  Take UMass. 

6* Toledo/Buffalo MAC *Total* Annihilator on OVER 54 

The Key: The OVER is 4-0 in Toledo’s last 4 games with combined scores of 66, 71, 68 and 59 points.  I think this total of 54 has been set too low.  The OVER is 3-0 in Buffalo’s last 3 games with combined scores of 63, 57 and 57 points.  Buffalo is 8-1 OVER as a home favorite over the last 3 years.  The OVER is 4-1 in Rockets last 5 road games.  The OVER is 7-0-1 in Bulls last 8 games against a team with a winning record.  Take the OVER. 

6* Ohio/Bowling Green MAC *Total* Annihilator on OVER 55 

The Key: Bowling Green has one of the worst defenses in the country.  They give up 34.8 PPG and just gave up 44 points last week to a mediocre Miami Ohio offense.  Ohio has a good offense that averages 31.8 PPG in MAC play and will hang a big number on them as well.  But I look for Bowling Green’s offense to have much better success against Ohio’s soft defense than they did against Miami Ohio last week.  Ohio allows 29.7 PPG and 432.6 YPG on the year.  Ohio is 7-0 OVER against awful pass defenses that allow a completion percentage of 62% or higher over the last 3 years.  The OVER is 5-1 in Bobcats last 6 games off a loss.  Take the OVER. 

7* Minnesota/Iowa Big Ten *HEAVY HITTER* on Minnesota +3 

The Key: The Minnesota Golden Gophers won’t have a letdown off their biggest win perhaps in program history over Penn State.  There is a lot more on the line than a win over Penn State.  Minnesota is basically assured of a Big Ten West title if they beat Iowa this week.  And they have a chance to make the four-team playoff if they go undefeated.  So everyone that talks about how the Gophers are going to have a letdown is dead wrong.  PJ Fleck went on the playoff show on Tuesday and said they hadn’t won at Kinnick Stadium since 1999, which was Kirk Ferentz’s first season with the Hawkeyes.  That’s 20 years.  If that’s not enough motivation, I don’t know what is.  Of course, Minnesota has a better team this year than they’ve had in the last 20 years, so that stat is pretty irrelevant.  The Gophers were never 9-0 going into the Iowa game before.  I realize the Gophers struggled in non-conference play to put away teams, but no team in the country has improved as much as them in conference play.  Not only are the Gophers winning, they are dominating.  They are 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in conference play winning by 23.2 PPG.  The Penn State game was the only one decided by less than 7 points, and they were up 24-10 in that game before the Nittany Lions expectedly made a little comeback.  The Gophers never trailed in that game so it wasn’t a fluke.  PJ Fleck is clearly one of the best head coaches in the country with leading Western Michigan to an unbeaten season until the narrow bowl loss to Wisconsin.  And now he’s taken Minnesota to 9-0.  He knows what buttons to push, and there’s plenty for him to push this week, including the underdog and disrespect cards.  Take Minnesota. 

6* Mountain West *CA$H COW* Utah State -4.5 

The Key: The Utah State Aggies have one of the best quarterbacks in the country.  That has helped them mask some other problems they’ve had when it comes to living up to expectations they created for themselves last year.  Despite the massive respect they’ve gained from their efforts last season, they’ve still managed to exceed expectations this year.  They are 5-4 ATS and coming off a 37-35 road win over Fresno State as 5-point dogs.  They racked up 525 yards on a solid Fresno State defense a week after gaining 521 yards on a good BYU defense.  That was one of the most misleading finals this season as Utah State lost 14-42 due to 5 turnovers.  The only games they really weren’t competitive in came on the road against Air Force and LSU, which is understandable seeing what those 2 teams are doing this year.  Wyoming lost a 17-20 heartbreaker at Boise State last week and won’t be recovered in time to face Utah State.  And the Cowboys lost their starting QB in Sean Chambers, who was playing great in leading Wyoming to a 6-2 start.  Chambers has 567 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns this season, and not having that dual-threat element with backup Tyler Vander Waal the rest of the way makes Wyoming very predictable.  Vander Waal was their starting QB last season and they were horrible with him at the helm.  Getting future NFL QB Jordan Love of Utah State as only a 4.5-point home favorite in this matchup with Wyoming’s Vander Waal is a steal.  Take Utah State. 

6* Conference USA *CA$H COW* on UTEP +17.5 

The Key: The UAB Blazers played the easiest schedule in the country en route to their 6-1 start this season.  Their 6 wins came over Alabama State (by 5), Akron (by 11), South Alabama, Rice, UTSA and ODU.  Those games against terrible teams in Alabama State and Akron tell all you need to know about how down UAB is compared to last season when they won Conference USA.  And when they finally stepped up in class this year, they have gotten blown out the last 2 weeks by Tennessee (by 23) and Southern Miss (by 35).  Now UAB is without stud starting QB Tyler Johnson III, who meant everything to their offense.  There’s a reason they only scored 2 points against Southern Miss on a safety without him.  UTEP is good enough to stay within 17 points.  The Miners covered as 13-point dogs in a 21-28 loss to Charlotte last week to prove they have not quit.  UAB’s chances of winning Conference USA are pretty much out the window now that they have have 2 conference losses on the season, so don’t expect them to show up this week.  Take UTEP. 

7* Fresno State/SDSU NCAAF Friday Night Lights on San Diego State -1 

The Key: The San Diego State Aztecs are 7-2 this season and 4-2 in conference play.  That 4-2 record has them in first place alone in the West Division.  They knew they could afford to lose to Nevada last week and that’s exactly what happened.  Now the Aztecs have zero margin for error, and they know they need to handle their business tonight at home against Fresno State.  This is a Fresno State team that is grossly overrated this season due to their ATS success the past 2 seasons.  But they had to replace nearly their entire team this year.  This inexperienced squad has gone 4-5 SU & 3-5-1 ATS this year as a result.  The Bulldogs are once again getting too much respect from oddsmakers tonight in basically a pick ‘em game at SDSU.  Fresno State is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 road games after allowing 525 or more yards last game.  The Bulldogs have allowed 500-plus yards in 3 straight games now to Colorado State, Hawaii and Utah State.  The Aztecs will have one of their best offensive performances of the season tonight against this soft Fresno defense.  And the Aztecs once again have one of the best defenses in the country.  They give up just 14.4 PPG and 277 YPG on the season.  Fresno allows 32.4 PPG this year.  The Aztecs are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 against a team with a losing record.  Take San Diego State. 

6* UNC/Pitt ACC *CA$H COW* on UNC +4 

The Key: The UNC Tar Heels just have a knack for playing in close games.  Eight of their 9 games have been decided by 7 points or less with the lone exception being their blowout win over a bad Georgia Tech team.  Six of their 9 games have been decided by 4 points or fewer as well, including their one-point loss to Clemson that showed what they are capable of.  Pitt has a poor offense that scores 20.9 PPG this year and it won’t allow them to get margin.  UNC has a good offense at 27.9 PPG and 446 YPG and will be in this game for four quarters.  Pitt is 4-17 ATS in its last 21 off 2 consecutive games where it committed 3 or more turnovers.  The Panthers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games against a team with a losing road record.  The Tar Hills are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.  Take UNC. 

7* Bowling Green/Miami Ohio MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Bowling Green +17.5 

The Key: Bowling Green is still alive for a bowl game and is certainly improved this year.  This is their last stand as 17.5-point dogs to Miami Ohio.  The Falcons are coming off a 35-6 win over Akron and have had 10 days off since that game.  Miami Ohio is only on normal rest after playing and upsetting Ohio 24-21 on the road last Wednesday.  It’s definitely a letdown spot for the Redhawks off that huge win that puts them in the driver’s seat to win their division in the MAC.  Miami hasn’t beaten Bowling Green by more than 15 points in any of the last 9 meetings, which makes for a 9-0 angle backing the Falcons.  The Falcons won 37-29 as 17-point dogs their last trip to Miami in 2017.  Take Bowling Green. 

7* Western Michigan/Ohio MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Ohio +1 

The Key: Western Michigan has already clinched a bowl game at 6-4 on the season.  Ohio is 4-5 on the season and really needs a win here to get to a bowl.  Adding to the motivation for the Bobcats is that this is Senior Night and their final home game.  Their best player in QB Nathan Rourke is a senior, and he has meant so much to this program that you know these players want to get him one final home win.  Western Michigan is 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS on the road this year.  The Broncos should not be favored in this matchup.  The Broncos are 1-10 ATS after playing a home game over the last 2 years.  Western Michigan is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 road games.  The Bobcats are 37-18 ATS in their last 55 against a team with a winning record.  Take Ohio. 

6* NCAAF Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on BYU -17 

The Key: No analysis this weekend.  On vacation. 

6* NCAAF Mountain West *CA$H COW* on Utah State +6 

The Key: No analysis this weekend.  On vacation. 

7* LSU/Alabama SEC Total of the Year on UNDER 64 

The Key: No analysis this weekend.  On vacation. 

6* Temple/USF AAC *CA$H COW* on South Florida +2 

The Key: South Florida is hungry to make a bowl game this year.  The Bulls have won 3 of their last 4 by an average of 18 PPG and need this win against Temple to make a bowl as they sit at 4-4 with a tough schedule coming up after.  Temple has lost 2 straight by an average of 33 PPG.  I’m shocked they are road favorites here.  The Owls are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games.  The Bulls have been running the ball with authority on teams and will be able to run the ball on Temple tonight, which is going to be the difference in this game.  Take South Florida. 

6* Miami/Ohio MAC *CA$H COW* on Miami +7 

The Key: Miami Ohio has played a much tougher schedule than Ohio.  Both teams are 3-1 in conference play, but I believe the Redhawks are the better team and shouldn’t be catching a touchdown.  They have 3 common opponents.  Miami is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS against those same 3 teams that Ohio has played.  Miami is only giving up 20 PPG and 361.3 YPG against those 3 teams.  Ohio is 2-1 SU but 0-3 ATS against those 3 teams.  The Bobcats are allowing 32.3 PPG and 454.7 YPG against those teams.  It’s easy to side with the team with the much better defense tonight in the Redhawks.  The Redhawks are 7-0 ATS off 2 straight conference games over the last 2 years.  Take Miami. 

6* SEC Game of the Week on Vanderbilt +16 

The Key: The South Carolina Gamecocks upset Georgia 20-17 three weeks ago as 20.5-point dogs.  They didn’t deserve to win that game, but since they did they are still getting too much credit for it.  They have since gone on to lose and fail to cover against both Florida (27-38) and Tennessee (21-41).  Now they’re being asked to lay a ridiculous 16 points to Vanderbilt.  This is a Vanderbilt team coming off their bye week following a 21-14 upset win over Missouri as 21.5-point dogs.  There was nothing fluky about that win either as they won the box score against the Tigers.  The Commodores still feel like they can make a bowl game and they know they need this win here if they are going to make a run at one.  The Commodores are 6-0 ATS after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games over the last 2 years.  The Gamecocks are 5-13-1 ATS in their last 14 against a team with a losing record.  The Commodores are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 November games.  Take Vanderbilt. 

6* NCAAF Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Tennessee -12.5 

The Key: Give Tennessee coach Jeremy Pruitt credit for not losing his team after a tough 1-4 start.  They have gone 2-1 since with their only loss to Alabama on the road in a game in which they played the Crimson Tide a lot tougher than the 13-35 final would indicate.  And they’ve pulled off 2 upset home wins over Mississippi State 20-10 as 5-point dogs and South Carolina 41-21 as 4-point dogs.  Even their 14-43 loss at Georgia was misleading the previous week because they were only down 15 with 6 minutes to go.  The Vols have covered the spread by a combined 51.5 points in their last 3 games so they are grossly underrated right now.  Now they are laying less than 2 touchdowns to UAB this week.  UAB was great last year, and they are 6-1 this year, but they are nowhere near as good as that record.  They have faced the 189th-ranked schedule in the country as there are actually 58 FCS teams that have played a more difficult schedule!  Their 6 wins have come against Alabama State, Akron, South Alabama, Rice, UTSA and ODU.  Their only loss came against the toughest team they faced in Western Kentucky.  And Tennessee is by far the best team that they will have faced now as the Blazers are at a huge talent disadvantage.  It’s an inexperienced UAB team that returned only 8 starters from last year’s very good team.  UAB is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 games after scoring 31 points or more in 2 straight games.  The Blazers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 against SEC teams.  Take Tennessee. 

7* Miami/Florida State ACC *HEAVY HITTER* on Florida State -3 

The Key: Both Miami and Florida State are 4-4 this season and in the midst of disappointing years.  However, the biggest difference is that Florida State (32nd) has played the tougher schedule than Miami (63rd).  And Florida State looks like a much better team with Alex Hornibrook as their starter.  Hornibrook has been a lot better than James Blackman.  Hornibrook is completing 68.4% of his passes averaging 8.7 YPA and has 6 touchdowns against only one interception.  Miami 17-12 win over Central Michigan at home as 30.5-point favorites showed everything you need to know about this team.  They went on to get upset by VA Tech at home as 14-point favorites the next week.  They were lucky to beat both Virginia and Pitt as they were outgained in both of those contests.  And they were also upset by Georgia Tech as 18.5-point home favorites.  This team just isn’t very good, especially offensively as they are playing musical chairs at quarterback.  The Seminoles are 24-11 ATS in their last 35 games with a line of +3 to -3.  The Hurricanes are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 road games and 6-14 ATS in their last 20 conference games.  Take Florida State. 

6* AAC Game of the Week on UCF -21.5 

The Key: UCF could should probably be 8-0 but they are 6-2 with their 2 losses coming by a combined 4 points both on the road at Cincinnati and Pitt.  Few teams have a more impressive win than the one the Knights pulled off last week.  They won 63-21 at Temple as 11-point favorites.  That’s a Temple team that has upset both Maryland and Memphis at home and are great as underdogs.  They had 348 more total yards than Temple in that game.  Now they will blow the doors off of Houston, which has decided to look to next year by redshirting their two best players at QB and WR.  The Cougars are just 3-5 this season and likely won’t even be going to a bowl game this year.  Their defense is giving up 462.7 YPG, which is bad news against a UCF offense that scores 46.6 PPG and averages 561.4 YPG.  The Knights are 6-0 ATS in home games after gaining 6.25 YPP or more in 2 consecutive games over the last 2 years.  Take UCF. 

6* MAC Game of the Week on Eastern Michigan +1 

The Key: Eastern Michigan is coming off a tough 3-point loss at Toledo.  I expect the Eagles to bounce back at home Saturday against the Buffalo Bills.  Buffalo is coming off a misleading 43-20 home win over Central Michigan.  That’s a CMU team that gave the game away with 5 turnovers.  This is an awful Buffalo offense that averages 355.1 YPG, including 351.5 YPG in conference play.  It’s a good time to jump on Eastern Michigan after failing to cover the spread in 4 of their last 5 games coming in.  I like this EMU offense that averages 414.5 YPG in conference play and is completing 66.6% of its passes for 288 YPG on the year.  The Eagles are 9-1 ATS off a conference loss over the last 3 seasons.  The Eagles are 8-0 ATS off a close conference loss by 7 points or less over the last 3 years.  The Bulls are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games.  The Eagles are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games following an ATS loss.  The home team is 4-0 SU in the last 4 meetings.  Take Eastern Michigan. 

7* Navy/UConn NCAAF Friday Night Lights on OVER 54 

The Key: The Navy Midshipmen have one of the most explosive offenses they’ve ever had this season.  They are scoring 37.9 PPG this season and it’s a big reason why they are 6-1.  They should be able to name their score against a soft Connecticut defense that yields 37.7 PPG on the year.  The Huskies have showed some offensive punch this season scoring at least 21 points in 5 of their 8 games, including 56 against UMass last week.  I think they can get to 21 here as well to help out this OVER.  The OVER is 6-1 in Navy’s last 7 games against a team with a losing record.  Take the OVER. 

6* WVU/Baylor Big 12 *CA$H COW* on Baylor -18 

The Key: The Baylor Bears have been flying under the radar this season despite being 7-0.  Now they get a chance to show the world how good they are at home on National TV Thursday night, and I think they come through with one of their best performances of the season because of it.  It’s not like the Bears are beating up on cupcakes.  They beat a very good Iowa State team at home, crushed Kansas State 31-12 on the road, and beat Oklahoma State 42-27 on the road.  That’s the same Kansas State team that just upset Oklahoma, and an Oklahoma State team that nearly beat Texas on the road and also just upset Iowa State on the road.  West Virginia is awful.  They lost at home to Texas by 11, at home to Iowa State by 24 and on the road to Oklahoma by 38.  They also lost at Missouri by 31 and have been very bad on the road.  Baylor is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games as a home favorite of 14.5 to 21 points.  Take Baylor. 

6* Boston College/Clemson ACC *CA$H COW* on Boston College +34.5 

The Key: The Boston College Eagles just aren’t getting any respect from oddsmakers as nearly 5-touchdown underdogs to Clemson.  This despite that the Eagles are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.  They beat Rutgers by 14 on the road, only lost by 3 to Wake Forest as 4.5-point dogs, only lost by 2 to Louisville as 4-point dogs, and put forth their best effort of the season last week in a 45-24 home win over NC State as 4-point dogs.  Boston College is putting up huge numbers offensively, which makes me think they can hang.  They had 533 yards against Wake Forest, 563 yards against Louisville and 532 yards against NC State in their last 3 games coming in.  They like to run the ball and control the clock, which will give them a better chance of keeping this game close by shortening the game.  13 of the last 14 meetings were decided by 27 points or fewer and that’s a 13-1 angle supporting the Eagles.  Take Boston College. 

6* Oklahoma State/Iowa State Big 12 *CA$H COW* on Iowa State -10.5 

The Key: Iowa State has put up some of the most impressive stats in the country this year on both sides of the ball.  They are scoring 37.1 PPG and averaging 481.1 YPG and giving up only 21.3 PPG and 333.9 YPG.  Oklahoma State has a good offense but a terrible defense, allowing 30.0 PPG and 432.3 YPG.  The Cowboys have turnover problems as they have committed at least 2 turnovers in 6 straight games, including 8 the last 2 weeks against Texas Tech and Baylor.  They lost both those games by double-digits, and they’ll lose by 11 or more to Iowa State here Saturday as well.  Oklahoma State QB Spencer Sanders is a turnover machine.  The Cowboys are a run-first team, and the Cyclones are stopping the run well this year.  Iowa State only gives up 114 rushing yards per game and 3.3 per carry.  Iowa State is 12-1 ATS after covering the spread in 3 of their last 4 games over the last 3 seasons.  The Cyclones are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.  Take Iowa State. 

6* NCAAF Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on UMass +10 

The Key: UConn shouldn’t be double-digits favorites against anyone.  These are 2 of the worst teams in college football.  But UMass is good enough to hang, especially at home here in what could be their final opportunity for a win this season.  And the Minutemen have had 2 weeks to get ready for UConn after having a bye last week.  Bye weeks are much more beneficial to teams like UMass that have a first-year head coach. UConn is 1-19 ATS in its last 20 games as a favorite.  Take UMass.