Sports Picks & Predictions

6* Ole Miss/Arkansas SEC *CA$H COW* on Arkansas +7 

The Key: Ole Miss has been embarrassed when stepping up in class.  They lost 7-62 at home to Alabama and 16-45 at LSU for their two losses this season.  Arkansas played Alabama last week and only lost 31-65, actually gaining over 400 yards on that Alabama defense.  Ole Miss was held to just 248 yards against Alabama.  Arkansas has an improved defense that held Auburn to 225 total yards three weeks ago and Texas A&M to 24 points and 377 total yards two weeks ago.  No question the Razorbacks are battle-tested now and won’t be phased by this Ole Miss offense.  And the Razorbacks are primed for their biggest offensive output of the season against an Ole Miss defense that has been shredded for 35.5 PPG and 504 YPG this season.  The Rebels should not be TD road favorites here Saturday with that leaky of a defense.  Ole Miss is 0-6 ATS off a home win over the last 2 seasons.  Arkansas is 21-8 ATS in its last 29 games following 3 or more consecutive losses.  The Rebels are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a win by more than 20 points.  The Razorbacks are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home meetings with the Rebels, and 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings overall.  The underdog is 7-0 ATS in the last 7 meetings.  Take Arkansas. 

6* Michigan State/Penn State Big Ten *CA$H COW* on Michigan State +13.5 

The Key: This is the preferred role when backing the Michigan State Spartans.  Not the role they’ve been in the last few weeks as double-digit favorites as they’ve failed to live up to expectations.  But the underdog role where Mark Dantonio thrives.  Penn State is reeling from the loss to Ohio State and could suffer a hangover, similar to last year when they were upset in East Lansing by the Spartans.  Penn State is 0-7 ATS in its last 7 home games off a home loss to a conference opponent.  The Nittany Lions are 1-10-2 ATS in their last 13 games following a SU loss.  The Spartans are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.  Take Michigan State.

6* UCF/Memphis AAC *CA$H COW* on Memphis +5 

The Key: UCF has benefited from playing one of the easiest schedules in the country.  Their 5 wins have come against UConn, South Carolina State, FAU, Pitt and SMU with 4 of those games at home.  They haven’t been on the road since August 30th against UConn.  This will easily be their toughest game of the season here at Memphis, which is 4-0 at home this season and winning by 36.8 PPG on average.  The Tigers want revenge from their 62-55 (OT) loss to UCF in the AAC title game last year.  Memphis is 8-0 ATS in its last 8 home games vs. teams who outscore their opponents by 17-plus PPG.  The Tigers have one of the best home-field advantages in the country, and it will be a great atmosphere Saturday with nationally ranked UCF coming to town.  Take Memphis. 

6* Oklahoma State/K-State Big 12 *CA$H COW* on Kansas State +7 

The Key: Both Kansas State and Oklahoma State are having down seasons.  Kansas State is 2-4 and in need of a victory after losing 3 straight.  They lost by 5 at home to Texas and by 3 at Baylor the last 2 weeks.  They are clearly hungry for a win and I think they have a good shot to get one Saturday at home against the Cowboys.  Oklahoma State has lost by 24 at home to Texas Tech and by 6 at home to Iowa State in two of the last three weeks with a 20-point win at Kansas in between.  And this has really been a tight series in recent meetings.  4 of the lsat 5 meetings have been decided by 6 points or less.  Oklahoma State hasn’t beaten Kansas State by more than 7 points in any of the last 7 meetings.  That’s a 7-0 angle backing the Wildcats.  Take Kansas State. 

7* SEC Game of the Month on Florida -7 

The Key: Many would expect Florida to have a letdown after their big 27-19 win over LSU last week.  However, the Gators have a bye on deck next week, so that kind of trumps that theory.  They will be laying it all on the line to get a win here against Vanderbilt knowing that they have next week off.  Florida is 25-1 SU in its last 26 meetings with Vanderbilt, including 13-0 in its last 13 trips to Vanderbilt.  The Commodores have been awful in their last 3 games.  They lost 14-37 at home to South Carolina, barely beat Tennessee State 31-27 as 28.5-point home favorites, and lost 13-41 at Georgia.  They have come back down to reality after a fast start to the season against weak competition.  The Gators have gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games with wins by 38 over Colorado State, by 26 at Tennessee, by 7 at Mississippi State and by 8 at home over LSU.  They continue rolling Saturday.  Take Florida. 

7* Arizona/Utah NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Arizona +14 

The Key: Utah is getting too much respect from its 40-21 win at Stanford last week.  The Cardinal were gassed in that game as they were playing a 3rd straight tough game after facing Oregon and Notre Dame the previous two weeks.  The Utes took advantage.  But now they’ll laying two touchdowns to the Arizona Wildcats, who have won 3 of their last 4 coming in with their only loss coming 20-24 to USC.  Seven of the last eight meetings between Utah and Arizona have been decided by 14 points or fewer.  The Wildcats can hang here, especially since the Utes have an underwhelming offense that makes it tough for them to win by a margin.  Take Arizona. 

6* Texas Tech/TCU Big 12 *CA$H COW* on TCU -7 

The Key: TCU has won 3 of its last 4 meetings with Texas Tech, including last year’s 27-3 victory as 6.5-point road favorites.  Now they are only 7-point home favorites this time around.  And TCU’s only two losses this season have come on a neutral to Ohio State and on the road to Texas, two of the best teams in the country.  Texas Tech lost by 8 at home to West Virginia and by 20 on a neutral to Ole Miss.  I believe TCU is the best team that they’ve faced yet.  And the Red Raiders have quarterback injury problems right now with both Bowman (lung) and Carter (ankle) highly questionable tonight.  They could be down to their third-stringer.  Either way, TCU has one of the best defenses in the country and will shut them down just as they did last year.  Gary Patterson is 14-3 ATS in home games off a bye week as the coach of TCU.  Take TCU. 

7* Sun Belt Game of the Month on Arkansas State +10.5 

The Key: This spread has gotten out of control with Appalachian State laying double-digits on the road against a Sun Belt power in Arkansas State that has won 5 titles in the past 6 seasons.  This one is all about strength of schedule for me.  App State has played a very weak schedule with three cupcakes and only one tough game at Penn State, which was back in Week 1.  Arkansas State has played 4 games already against solid programs in Alabama, Tulsa, UNLV and Georgia Southern.  I expect the Red Wolves to play the underdog card up tonight and be extra hungry for a victory.  They are 1-4 ATS this season and undervalued because of it, while App State is 4-0 ATS and overvalued.  This is simply too many points tonight.  Take Arkansas State. 

6* Conference USA Game of the Day on UAB +9.5 

The Key: This is a very difficult situation for Louisiana Tech.  The Bulldogs are coming off their two biggest games of the season over the last two weeks.  They only trailed 24-21 at LSU before eventually losing 21-38.  And then last week they upset North Texas 29-27 as 7.5-point road underdogs.  The Mean Green missed two fourth quarter field goals to aid their cause.  Now this is clearly a letdown spot for the Bulldogs, and they are starting to get a lot of respect from oddsmakers as 9.5-point favorites against a good UAB team.  This is a UAB squad that is 3-1 this season and coming off a dominant 28-7 win over Charlotte, which followed up an upset win over Tulane.  UAB beat LA Tech 23-22 as 9.5-point home underdogs last year.  They have 16 starters back from that squad and continue to be underrated here.  The Blazers are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 conference games.  The Blazers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.  Take UAB. 

6* AAC Game of the Day on SMU +24.5 

The Key: Bettors are starting to have to pay a tax to back UCF.  The Knights are 17-0 dating back to last season and have been covering machines.  Now they’re 24.5-point home favorites over SMU this week.  SMU has 14 starters back from a team that only lost 24-31 at home to UCF as 14.5-point dogs last year.  SMU has picked up back-to-back nice wins against Navy 31-30 and Houston Baptist 63-27.  They also only lost by 25 at Michigan as 36.5-point underdogs, and hung tough with TCU for a half.  They are capable of hanging with UCF enough to stay within this 24.5-point spread today.  Sonny Dykes is 11-2 ATS in road games off 2 or more consecutive wins as a head coach.  Take SMU. 

6* MAC Game of the Day on Kent State +12 

The Key: Both Kent State and Ohio have a common opponent in Howard.  Kent State beat Howard 54-14 as 9-point home favorites and outgained them by 241 yards.  Ohio only beat Howard 38-32 as 30.5-point home favorites and was outgained by 220 yards in that contest.  And somehow Ohio State is laying double-digits on the road to Kent State? Give me a break.  The Golden Flashes have a vastly improved offense this season.  They should be able to torch an Ohio defense that is yielding 38.2 points and 518 yards per game this season.  Frank Solich is 2-12 ATS after scoring 50 points or more last game in all games he has coached.  Take Kent State. 

7* Big 12 Game of the Month on Iowa State +9.5 

The Key: Iowa State is battle-tested already having played Oklahoma, Iowa and TCU with two of those games on the road.  And yet they still haven’t lost by more than 10 points in any game, being competitive in all of them.  Oklahoma State will be the fourth-best team they have faced yet.  And I would argue that Iowa State is probably the best team that Oklahoma State has played.  And the Cowboys lost 17-41 at home to Texas Tech as 14.5-point favorites, so they are beatable.  And the Cyclones want revenge from some close calls recently against the Cowboys.  They have lost 5 straight to Oklahoma State, including the last three all by 7 points or less.  I expect this one to go down to the wire as well, so the price is right to back the Cyclones here catching nearly double-digits.  The Cyclones are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 road games.  The Cyclones are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 vs. a team with a winning record.  Iowa State is 10-1 ATS vs. poor pass defenses that allow 58% competitions or more over the last 3 seasons.  Take Iowa State. 

6* Big Ten Game of the Day on Northwestern +10 

The Key: I believe Northwestern to be undervalued right now due to a 1-3 start and in the midst of a 3-game losing streak.  After beating Purdue in their opener, they were upset by both Duke and Akron, but they outgained Duke by 80 yards and Akron by 124.  And last week they nearly upset Michigan in a 17-20 home loss.  I like the price we are getting with the Wildcats, who should not be 10-point underdogs to an overrated Michigan State team.  The Spartans barely beat Utah State 38-31 as 23.5-point home favorites in their opener.  And they only won 31-20 over Central Michigan as 27.5-point home favorites last week.  If those two teams can hang with the Spartans, Northwestern can as well.  Northwestern is actually 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last 4 meetings with Michigan State despite being the underdog in all 4 contests.  The Wildcats are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games.  The Wildcats are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 conference games.  The Wildcats are a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 trips to Michigan State.  Take Northwestern. 

7* Utah State/BYU NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Utah State +2 

The Key: Utah State has gone on to prove that its narrow 31-38 loss to Michigan State as 23.5-point underdogs in the opener was no fluke.  They have since gone 3-0 with a 60-13 win over New Mexico State, a 73-12 win over Tennessee Tech and a 42-32 win over Air Force.  And now the Aggies are in the perfect spot having a bye since that Air Force win to get ready for BYU.  Meanwhile, BYU has played a brutal schedule to start and has had no time off.  They’ve played Arizona, Cal, Wisconsin, and Washington.  It looked like they ran out of gas last week against Washington, losing 7-35 while getting outgained by 270 yards.  I don’t think they’ll have much left in the tank here Friday on this short week against a rested Utah State squad.  The Aggies are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after gaining 450 or more total yards in their previous game.  The Aggies are 17-6-1 ATS in their last 24 Friday games.  The Cougars are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 home games.  The Cougars are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 Friday games.  BYU is 4-15 ATS in its last 19 home games vs. teams who average 450 or more yards per game on offense.  Take Utah State. 

6* Tulsa/Houston AAC *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 70.5 

The Key: There’s value with the UNDER tonight when you look at the series history between these teams.  The last 7 meetings between Tulsa and Houston have all seen 69 or fewer combined points.  They’ve averaged 60.6 combined PPG in those 7 meetings.  And I think we are getting about 10 points of value on this UNDER tonight.  Both Houston and Tulsa have better defenses than they get credit for.  And Tulsa’s offense is way down this season.  Tulsa is 7-0 UNDER vs. good offensive teams that average 5.9 YPP or more over the last 2 seasons.  Take the UNDER. 

6* MAC Game of the Day on Eastern Michigan -3 

The Key: The Eagles Michigan Eagles continue to lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers here as only 3-point favorites over Northern Illinois.  This is a team that has gone 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games overall and continue to be a covering machine.  They have showed their mettle with a 20-19 win at Purdue as 15-point dogs, a 28-35 road loss to a very good Buffalo team, and a 20-23 road loss to a very good San Diego State as 10.5-point dogs over the last 3 weeks.  They should be able to handle this down NIU team that is 1-3 with three double-digits losses.  Their only win was a 24-16 win over Central Michigan as 13.5-point favorites.  That’s a Central Michigan team that lost 31-7 at home to Kansas.  The Huskies have been embarrassing on offense this year, averaging just 14 PPG, 236 YPG and 3.5 YPP.  It doesn’t get any worse than that.  The Eagles are 11-1 ATS off a game where they forced 1 or fewer turnovers over the last 3 seasons.  The Eagles are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games following a loss.  The Huskies are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games.  Take Eastern Michigan. 

6* Big Ten Game of the Day on Northwestern +15 

The Key: Northwestern is primed for a big game Saturday.  The Wildcats have been steaming for two weeks following their upset loss to Akron in which the Zips had 3 defensive touchdowns.  They outgained Akron by 124 yards.  And they lost to Duke the week before despite outgaining them by 80 yards.  This is a Wildcats team that had high expectations coming into the season.  Not all is lost yet, and they have a chance to make a statement here Saturday and improve to 2-0 in Big Ten play.  Michigan is getting too much respect from the books.  They lost at Notre Dame in the opener, but have reeled off 3 straight home wins over Western Michigan, SMU and Nebraska since.  Big deal.  They will get more of a fight than they are expecting here from the Wildcats.  Michigan is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 games after scoring 31 or more points in 3 straight games coming in.  The Wolverines are 9-24 ATS in their last 33 games following an ATS win.  Michigan is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The Wildcats are 23-4 ATS in their last 27 games after allowing less than 100 rushing yards in their previous game.    Take Northwestern. 

6* Big 12 Game of the Day on Baylor +24 

The Key: Oklahoma is coming off a shocking 28-21 (OT) victory against Army last week.  The Black Knights played a great game and played keep away from the Sooners.  They held the ball for nearly 45 minutes compared to just over 15 for the Sooners.  I think that effort will have Oklahoma’s defense taxed this week, and Baylor can take advantage.  Remember last year Baylor nearly upset Oklahoma in a 41-49 home loss as 27.5-point underdogs.  And this Baylor team is much better than that one, while Oklahoma is not as good as last year.  The Bears have opened 3-1 with their only loss to unbeaten Duke.  They have outgained all four of their opponents this season, including Duke.  Bets on road underdogs off a home win against a conference opponent with 4 or more starters returning than an opponent, plus a returning QB starter against a team with a new QB are 31-7 ATS over the last 5 seasons.  Take Baylor. 

6* ACC Game of the Day on Virginia +6 

The Key: Bronco Mendenhall is doing big things in Year 3 at Virginia.  He clearly has his best team yet.  The Cavaliers are 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS this season.  Their only loss was a 4-point road loss to Indiana in the slop as 5-point underdogs.  They beat Richmond 42-13 as 14.5-point favorites.  They beat Ohio 45-31 as 4-point favorites.  And they dominated Louisville 27-3 as 4.5-point favorites.  Their offense is one of the most improved in the country, and their defense is also greatly improved over last year.  They are averaging 32.5 PPG and giving up just 16.7 PPG and 297 YPG.  NC State lost a ton of NFL talent from their defense last year and returned just 3 starters on that side of the ball.  After a weak schedule to open the season with wins over James Madison, Georgia State and Marshall, they take a big step up in class here against the Cavaliers.  Virginia is 7-0 ATS in road games in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons.  The Cavaliers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Virginia. 

7* NCAAF Non-Conference Game of the Year on UL-Lafayette +49.5 

The Key: Alabama is notorious for not being able to cover the spread in these situations.  They are coming off a big win over Texas A&M, and now they step out of the conference this week before playing another SEC game against Arkansas next week.  They just don’t seem like they are ever concerned with running up the score.  The starters should be out of the game early in the 3rd quarter.  That’s going to make it difficult for them to win by 50-plus to cover this spread.  Bets on underdogs of 31.5 or more points who failed to cover the spread in 2 of their last 3 games, a bad team that wins 25% to 40% of their games against a team with a. Winning record are 48-17 ATS since 1992.  Take UL-Lafayette. 

7* Memphis/Tulane NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Tulane +15 

The Key: This feels like a huge game for Tulane if they want to get to a bowl game this year.  The Green Wave have opened 1-3 with road losses to UAB and Ohio State and a home loss to Wake Forest amidst a brutal schedule.  I think they will be ‘all in’ here trying to get a win against Memphis.  This is a Memphis team that only beat lowly South Alabama 52-35 as 31.5-point home favorites last week.  If South Alabama can hang, I certainly believe Tulane can at home.  And Memphis lost its only road game this year 21-22 at Navy, getting upset at 6.5-point favorites.  The Tigers are 4-16 ATS in their last 20 games after scoring 50 points or more.  The Green Wave are 6-0 ATS in home games off a non-conference game over the last 3 years.  Tulane is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 home games overall.  Take Tulane. 

6* TCU/Texas Big 12 *CA$H COW* on Texas +3.5 

The Key: The Texas Longhorns are ready to take the next step this season.  They beat USC 37-14 at home last week and now they host TCU for their Big 12 opener looking to make a statement.  They get the Horned Frogs at a great time, too.  TCU will still be licking its wounds from a tough loss to Ohio State last week.  I love backing Texas head coach Tom Herman in the underdog role.  He has gone 21-1 ATS as an underdog lifetime as a head coach or an assistant coach in his 4 different stops.  Take Texas. 

6* Kansas/Baylor Big 12 *CA$H COW* on Baylor -7.5 

The Key: I love the price we are getting with the Baylor Bears at home today against the Kansas Jayhawks.  Baylor is coming off an upset home loss to Duke, while Kansas is coming off back-to-back upset wins over Central Michigan and Rutgers.  That’s why we are getting the Bears so cheap today.  Baylor went into Kansas and won 38-9 last year.  And the Bears are much better this season than they were a year ago.  Baylor is now 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings, winning by 29, 42, 59, 46, 45 and 27 points, respectively.  Expect another blowout win in the Bears’ favor here Saturday.  Take Baylor. 

7* ACC Game of the Month on Clemson -16 

The Key: The Clemson Tigers aren’t laying enough points to the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets.  That’s largely due to the fact that they are 0-3 ATS on the season, costing bettors money up to this point.  But I think the price is right to back them now here in a game they should win by 3 touchdowns and finally cash in a winning ticket.  They have owned Georgia Tech in recent seasons, holding them to a combined 17 points in the last 2 meetings.  They have figured out how to stop the triple-option, and they are coming off a dominant 38-7 win over Georgia Southern and their triple-option last week, giving them great preparation for this game Saturday.  The Tigers have held the Yellow Jackets to just 121 yards per game and 2.9 yards per rush on the ground in their last 3 meetings with them.  Georgia Tech lost 1,000-yard rusher KirVonte Benson a few weeks back against USF, and it’s no wonder they are coming off back-to-back losses as they fell to Pitt last week as well.  This should be somewhere in the neighborhood of a 31-7 victory Saturday, if not worse.  Take Clemson. 

6* Saturday NCAAF *BLOWOUT* on Iowa State -20 

The Key: Akron is coming off a huge upset win over Northwestern as 21-point underdogs last week.  They looked left for dead trailing 21-3 at halftime.  But then the craziness happened.  The Zips got 3 defensive touchdowns in the 2nd half and won 39-34.  Now they’re in a big letdown spot here against a hungry Iowa State team that is looking for its first win.  The Cyclones have played a brutal early schedule losing on the road at Iowa and at home to Oklahoma as dogs.  They will get right here against an Akron team they beat 41-14 on the road last season.  The Cyclones should have no problem winning this game by 3 touchdowns or more.  Iowa State is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 home games.  The Cyclones are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. MAC opponents.  Akron is 0-8 ATS in its last 8 games off an upset win as a double-digit underdog.  The Zips are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games off a road win.  Take Iowa State. 

6* Notre Dame/Wake Forest *CA$H COW* on Wake Forest +7 

The Key: Notre Dame is probably the most overrated team in the country.  The Fighting Irish are 3-0 but could easily be 0-3.  All 3 of their victories have come by 8 points or less, including a 24-16 win over Ball State as 33.5-point favorites and a 22-17 win over Vanderbilt as 13.5-point favorites.  Now the Fighting Irish hit the road for the first time this season against a pesky Wake Forest team that nearly beat Boston College at home last time out, losing 34-41.  And the Demon Deacons have had a couple extra days to prepare for Notre Dame after playing BC last Thursday.  Wake hung tough in a 37-48 loss at Notre Dame as 14.5-point underdogs last season.  They managed 587 total yards against the Notre Dame defense in the loss.  The Demon Deacons once again have an explosive offense this season that is averaging 36 PPG and 547 YPG on the year.  The Demon Deacons are 11-3 ATS as underdogs over the last 3 seasons.  The Fighting Irish are 1-8 ATS when playing against a team that wins 60% to 75% of their games over the last 3 years.  They are also 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs. a team with a winning record overall.  Take Wake Forest. 

7* FAU/UCF ESPN Friday Night Lights on Florida Atlantic +13.5 

The Key: I think UCF is overvalued due to having not lost a game since 2016.  And I think losing their game last week due to weather is a bad thing for them.  FAU is a team that returned 16 starters this year including 10 on defense.  The Owls have been tested as they’ve already played Oklahoma and Air Force.  They have had this game circled on their calendars and should put forth a home run effort.  UCF has not been tested yet playing Upon and South Carolina State.  The UConn put up 486 total yards on this UCF defense.  The Owls should have plenty of success with their running game, which is elite.  The Knights have allowed 198 rushing yards per game in their two games against awful competition.  The Owls are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Knights are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.  Take Florida Atlantic. 

7* Ohio State/TCU Top 25 *HEAVY HITTER* on TCU +14 

The Key: TCU is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 as an underdog under Gary Patterson.  And now Patterson is catching two touchdowns against Ohio State Saturday.  The Horned Frogs are licking their chops at the opportunity to face the Buckeyes.  Remember, a few years back Ohio State was the team that got into the four-team playoff to knock TCU out of it even though the Horned Frogs deserved to be in.  Patterson and company have not forgotten.  The Horned Frogs play too good defensively to not be competitive here.  And their offense is better than it’s getting credit for with Shawn Robinson at QB.  Even though this is technically a neutral field, it’s not far from TCU’s campus in Arlington and it will be a TCU-heavy crowd.  Take TCU. 

6* Boise State/Oklahoma State *CA$H COW* on Boise State ML +110 

The Key: Oklahoma State lost all of its stars on offense from last season.  The Cowboys won’t be that good on offense this season because of it.  But they haven’t been exposed yet because of the ease of their schedule getting to host both Missouri State as a 45-point favorite and South Alabama as a 30-point favorite.  But now they will get exposed against Boise State, which returns 16 starters this season and is the best Group of 5 team in the country.  The Broncos won 56-20 at Troy and 62-7 at home over UConn to prove they are for real.  Those are two better opponents than Oklahoma State has faced this season.  The offense is humming with 59 PPG and 617 YPG, and the defense is dynamite with 10 returning starters and allowing 13.5 PPG and 286 YPG thus far.  Brian Harsin is 10-2 ATS as an underdog in all games as a head coach.  Take Boise State on the Money Line.

6* Oklahoma/Iowa State Big 12 *CA$H COW* on Iowa State +19 

The Key: Oklahoma is the flavor of the week right now with its 63-14 win over Florida Atlantic and 49-21 win over UCLA to open the season.  Iowa State has only played one game, and it was an ugly 3-13 loss at Iowa.  I think we’re getting a few too many points here with the Cyclones at home.  They are different animal on their home field and proved that they once again have a great defense by limiting Iowa to just 271 total yards.  They will be able to limit Oklahoma this week.  The Cyclones pulled the 38-31 upset in Oklahoma as 30-point underdogs last season.  They also only lost 24-34 at home to Oklahoma in 2016 as 21-point dogs.  This game will be closer than expected.  The Cyclones are 11-2 ATS in Saturday games over the last 2 seasons.  The Cyclones are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games played on a grass field.  The Cyclones are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 vs. a team with a winning record.  The Sooners are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games.  The Sooners are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.  Take Iowa State. 

6* Saturday NCAAF *Upset Special* on Rutgers ML +125 

The Key: Kansas just ended a 46-game road losing streak with a win at Central Michigan last week.  That followed up a ugly home loss to FCS opponent Nicholls State.  I think the Jayhawks are actually better on the road because they get away from home, where there’s a lot of negativity to surround the program.  Fans will be quick to boo them this week if it goes south again.  I think Rutgers is the more talented of these two teams.  They were beaten badly by Ohio State last week on the road, otherwise they wouldn’t be underdogs here.  Kansas is overvalued off its road win against a bad CMU team.  Rutgers is 33-16 ATS in its last 49 non-conference road games.  The Scarlet Knights are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. Big 12 opponents.  The Jayhawks are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU win.  Kansas is also 7-18-1 ATS in its last 26 games following an ATS win.  Take Rutgers on the Money Line. 

6* Saturday NCAAF Dog of the Day on Georgia Southern +33 

The Key: I expect Clemson to be sleep-walking through this game Saturday morning.  They are coming off a huge 28-26 win at Texas A&M, and they have their ACC opener against Georgia Tech on deck next week.  They just want to get out of here with a win against Georgia Southern.  I think Georgia Southern will play this game closer than expected.  They beat South Carolina State 37-6 as 28.5-point favorites and UMass 34-13 as 1.5-point favorites.  They have 18 starters back from last year and have been notorious for giving Power 5 programs fits through the years with their triple option.  Georgia Southern lost in OT to Georgia in 2015, had a one-point road loss to NC State in 2014, and lost by only 4 points at Georgia Tech in 2014.  They also stunned Florida in Gainesville in 2013.  The Eagles are averaging 326 rushing yards per game this season and their triple-option will give Clemson a hard time here.  Take Georgia Southern. 

6* Penn State/Pitt ABC *CA$H COW* on Pittsburgh +7.5 

The Key: Penn State needing overtime in Week 1 to beat Appalachian State 45-38 as 24-point favorites is a telling sign of things to come for the Nittany Lions.  They lost a ton of playmakers on offense, and Trace McSorley was fortunate to bring them back for a win in the final seconds and in OT.  But the more concerning thing is a defense that gave up 38 points to the Mountaineers and returns just 3 starters from last year.  Pitt doesn’t have an explosive offense, but even they should be able to move the football and score points on this Penn State defense.  The Panthers do have a great defense, however, with 9 returning starters.  This should be Pat Narduzzi’s best defense yet in his 4th year at Pitt.  The Panthers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Pittsburgh. 

6* Clemson/Texas A&M ESPN *CA$H COW* on Texas A&M +12 

The Key: I like the fact that Jimbo Fisher knows Clemson well after coaching against them every year in the ACC at Florida State.  Fisher knows what it takes to beat Dabo Swinney and company.  And Fisher stepped into a great situation at Texas A&M with 16 returning starters, including QB Kellen Mond, who was offered by Clemson coming out of high school.  The Aggies made easy work of Northwestern State 59-7 last Thursday, outgaining them by 507 total yards.  And now they’ve had a few extra days to prepare for Clemson, which played on Saturday.  This will be the toughest game of the regular season for the Tigers as the 12th Man at Kyle Field is no joke.  The Aggies are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 September games, and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games.  Take Texas A&M. 

7* Georgia/South Carolina SEC Game of the Month on South Carolina +10.5 

The Key: South Carolina finally has a team that is capable of competing with Georgia.  The Gamecocks believe they are good enough to challenge the Bulldogs for an SEC East title this season.  They get their chance to prove it on the field at home Saturday in what will be a hostile environment.  The Gamecocks are 7-1-3 ATS in their last 11 conference games.  South Carolina is 18-7-1 ATS in its last 26 games off a win by more than 20 points.  The Gamecocks are 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  This is the best team that Will Muschamp has had yet at South Carolina, especially offensively with a great QB and two amazing playmakers at RB & WR.  Take South Carolina. 

6* Saturday NCAAF Dog of the Day on Buffalo +4.5 

The Key: I believe Buffalo has a better team than Temple this season and that will show on the field Saturday.  Buffalo has 14 returning starters and one of the more underrated QB/WR combos in the country with Tyree Jackson and Anthony Johnson, who had 76 receptions for 1,356 yards and 14 touchdowns last year.  The Bulls rolled Delaware State 48-10 in their opener.  Temple lost 17-19 at home to Villanova as 14.5-point favorites, a sign of bad things to come for the Owls this year.  They have just 12 returning starters and lose each of their top two receivers from a year ago.  Not only did they get beat by Villanova, they got dominated statistically by getting outgained by 154 yards.  Their offense is clearly in trouble after amassing just 251 total yards against Villanova.  The Bulls are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  Buffalo is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 September games.  The Owls are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 September games.  Temple is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 vs. MAC opponents.  Take Buffalo. 

6* Saturday NCAAF *Upset Special* on Kansas +4 

The Key: Central Michigan is a rebuilding team this year that returns only 10 starters and loses stud QB Shane Morris.  Their game against Kentucky wasn’t as close as the 20-35 final would indicate last week.  They were outgained by 172 yards in that matchup.  Kansas was upset 23-26 by Nicholls State in overtime, but that’s a great FCS program and the Jayhawks were single-digit favorites.  Nicholls State has given Georgia and Texas A&M fits in recent years, so it wasn’t much of an upset and it’s getting overblown.  This is still the best team that David Beatty has had at Kansas yet with 19 returning starters in his 4th season.  I believe they go on the road and get an ‘upset’ victory against this inexperienced Chippewas squad.  Take Kansas. 

7* TCU/SMU NCAAF Friday Night Lights on TCU -22 

The Key: The TCU Horned Frogs have owned the SMU Mustangs in recent years.  TCU has won the last 5 meetings by more than 31 PPG on average.  And that should be about the margin of victory for this year’s matchup.  TCU is another Big 12 title contender with an elite defense and an improved offense under a new QB.  And SMU is certainly going to take a step back now that Chad Morris is gone after improving dramatically under him and actually making a bowl last year.  But they lost that bowl by 41 points with Sonny Dykes at the helm, and they were blasted by 23 points at North Texas in Week 1 in Dykes’ first official first game as head coach last week.  The Mustangs are in for a rude awakening tonight.  Take TCU. 

6* VA Tech/FSU ACC *CA$H COW* on Virginia Tech +7.5 

The Key: It’s going to take some time for Florida State to get used to new head coach Willie Taggart’s systems.  They are talented on offense and will eventually be great, but I’m expecting plenty of mistakes form them in the opener.  And defensively is where they have the biggest questions because they return just 4 starters on D.  I trust Justin Fuente, who enters is 3rd season in Blacksburg and has already guided the Hokies to 10 and 9-win seasons in his first 2 years.  He has 12 returning starters to work with in 2018, including 7 on offense.  Bud Foster’s defense gave up just 14.8 PPG last year, so even though they lose some guys, they will be good again because they are every year.  The Seminoles are 0-6-2 ATS in their last 8 conference games.  FSU is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points.  The Hokies are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 as a road dog of 3.5 to 7 points.  Take Virginia Tech. 

7* Miami/LSU NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Miami -3 

The Key: The Miami Hurricanes won 10 games last year and are a team on the rise under Mark Richt.  They have 14 returning starters, including their starting QB and an elite defense.  LSU is headed in the wrong direction under Ed Orgeron.  And things aren’t getting any better for him this season with just 10 returning starters.  LSU is 1-8 ATS in September games over the last 3 seasons.  Orgeron is 4-13 ATS in September games as a head coach.  LSU is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 vs. ACC teams.  Take Miami. 

6* Saturday NCAAF *Total* Annihilator on SMU/North Texas OVER 71 

The Key: Two high-powered offenses go toe-to-toe Saturday when SMU takes on North Texas.  These teams played last year with SMU winning 54-32 for 86 combined points.  I think we see a similar combined point total in the 2018 rematch.  SMU put up 37.8 PPG last year.  They do lose head coach Chad Morris, but bring in another offensive-minded Sonny Dykes to take his place.  Dykes and his Air Raid offense are a perfect match for junior QB Ben Hicks, who threw for 3,569 yards and 33 touchdowns last year.  North Texas averaged 35.5 PPG last year and now welcomes back 9 starters on offense.  That includes junior QB Mason Fine, who threw for 4,052 yards and 31 touchdowns a year ago.  This is going to be a fun game to watch with Fine and Hicks trading blows for 60 minutes.  The OVER is 7-2 in Mustangs last 9 road games.  The OVER is 4-0 in Mean Green last 4 home games.  The OVER is 6-1 in Mean Green last 7 non-conference games.  North Texas is 6-0 OVER as a home favorite over the last 3 seasons.  Take the OVER. 

7* Washington/Auburn Top 10 *HEAVY HITTER* on Washington +2.5 

The Key: The Washington Huskies are one of the best teams in the country in 2018.  They return 17 starters from a team that won 10 games last year.  This is a statement game for them taking down an SEC team in Auburn on a neutral field.  The Huskies have the best unit on the field, which is their defense that gave up 16.1 PPG last year and returns 9 starters.  Their ability to shut down Jarrett Stidham and this Auburn offense will be the key to victory.  The Tigers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games.  Auburn is 0-5-1 ATS in its last 6 non-conference games.  Take Washington. 

6* Saturday NCAAF *Upset Special* on Northern Illinois +10 

The Key: Northern Illinois is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 games against the Big Ten.  The Huskies have been notorious for pulling off upsets against this conference throughout the years.  They even beat this same Iowa team on the road in 2013.  They beat Northwestern and Nebraska both since 2014, and they only lost by 7 to Ohio State as 34-point underdogs in 2015.  Iowa is just 1-5 ATS in its last six games against MAC teams.  I like this NIU squad that returns 14 starters.  They have everyone back on the offensive line to protect for talented sophomore QB Marcus Childers, who is coming off a great freshman campaign.  Iowa will be without its two starting offensive tackles for this game with suspensions.  They are also missing two key defensive linemen.  They already lose 6 of their top 8 tacklers on defense.  The Huskies are 34-16-3 ATS in their last 53 road games.  Take Northern Illinois. 

6* NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Utah State +24 

The Key: Utah State figures to be one of the most improved teams in the country this season.  The Aggies return 18 starts and are more than capable of keeping this game close against Michigan State.  I think the Spartans come in overrated after a 10-win season last year that nobody could have predicted.  They won 10 games in spite of an offense that managed just 24.5 PPG.  That offense won’t be much better this season.  They do have another good defense again, but asking them to lay this many points in the opener to a game Utah State team is too much.  The Aggies are 16-6-1 ATS in their last 23 Friday games.  The Spartans are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 Friday games.  Take Utah State. 

6* Northwestern/Purdue Big Ten *CA$H COW* on Purdue -1 

The Key: Purdue still enters 2017 getting no respect after making a bowl in Jeff Brohm’s first year.  They are just 1-point home favorites here against the Northwestern Wildcats.  And they have 13 starters back from that team, including 9 on offense.  This should be one of the best offenses in the Big Ten.  Northwestern has a great defense but its offense leaves a lot to be desired, especially with the loss of NU’s all-time leading rusher in Justin Jackson.  I believe Clayton Thorson is overrated and won’t be hitting on all cylinders in Game 1 as he returns from a torn ACL.  The Boilermakers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.  They’ll want revenge from a 23-13 loss at Northwestern last year.  Take Purdue. 

6* Hawaii/Colorado State MWC *CA$H COW* on Hawaii +17 

The Key: Colorado State is one of the least experienced teams in the country this season.  They rank 130th in terms of experience and have just 9 returning starters this year.  I think this is a hefty price for them to pay in their opener against a conference opponent in Hawaii.  The Warriors will be trying to win this game for the people of Hawaii, who are having to endure a Hurricane right now and all that comes with it.  This is a chance for them to get away to the mainland and focus on football for a day.  They went to the mainland and won their opener last season against UMass.  Take Hawaii. 

7* Alabama/Georgia NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Alabama -3.5 

The Key: It’s not often you’ll get the opportunity to back Alabama as this small of a favorite.  After all, they have been favored in 110 for their last 111 games with the only exception being 1-point underdogs at Georgia in 2015.  They blew out the Bulldogs 38-10 that year.  Alabama is equipped to stop Georgia considering the Crimson Tide have the best rushing defense in the country, giving up just 2.7 yards per carry.  Nick Saban is great at making his opponents play left-handed.  He will make Georgia’s freshman QB try and beat them through the air, and I don’t think he is capable of it.  Speaking of Saban, he’s 11-0 all-time against former assistants, winning by 29 PPG on average.  Kirby Smart is simply overmatched here.  Take Alabama. 

7* Alabama/Clemson NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Alabama -3 

The Key: Nick Saban and the Alabama Crimson Tide will be out for revenge from their loss to Clemson on the final play of the game as they were going for their 2nd consecutive national championship.  But now Clemson doesn’t have Deshaun Watson to dig them out of a hole again.  Saban is 10-2 straight up in revenge game as the coach of Alabama.  They had an extra week to get ready for this game because they finally didn’t make the SEC Championship.  Now they are getting healthy on defense for the first time in a long time.  Take Alabama. 

6* Georgia/Oklahoma NCAAF *CA$H COW* on Oklahoma +3 

The Key: Oklahoma has been able to handle the SEC and big teams better than basically any team in the country.  The Sooners are 4-0 in their last 4 against SEC opponents.  They are also 7-0 against the spread against teams that have won at least 75% of their games over the last 2 seasons.  They are 11-1 ATS against teams with winning records over the last 2 years as well.  I think Georgia is in for a rude awakening against by far the best offense they have seen this season, especially the best passing offense led by Baker Mayfield.  Take Oklahoma. 

7* NCAAF Bowl Game of the Year on Miami +6.5 

The Key: This will be a home game for the Miami Hurricanes played in the Orange Bowl down in Miami.  They had their two best performances of the season in home night games earlier this year.  They beat Virginia Tech 28-10 as 1.5-point favorites and Notre Dame 41-8 as 3.5-point underdogs.  I think they come forth with a huge effort here against Wisconsin to finish off their season the right way.  Miami will be the bet team Wisconsin has faced outside Ohio State as the Badgers played an extremely soft schedule.  And the Badgers were thoroughly outplayed by the Buckeyes in their lone loss of the season.  I think you can chalk up loss No. 2 for the Badgers here Saturday night.  Take Miami. 

7* Utah State/New Mexico State *Total* Annihilator on OVER 63 

The Key: Expect offensive fireworks between Utah State and New Mexico State tonight in the Arizona bowl in perfect conditions in Tucson.  Utah State scored 35 or more points in 6 of its 12 games this season.  New Mexico State scored 30 or more points in 7 of its 12 games.  Basically both teams need to get to 30 to secure this OVER, which shouldn’t be a problem.  New Mexico State is 13-4 OVER in its last 17 games playing on 2 or more weeks rest.  The OVER is 7-0 in Aggies last 7 road games off an ATS loss.  The OVER is 9-3 in Utah State's last 12 games overall.  The OVER is 22-8 in NMSU's last 30 non-conference games.  The OVER is 41-20-2 in NMSU’s last 63 games overall.  Take the OVER.

7* Stanford/TCU NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on TCU -3 

The Key: I’m getting the better defense and the better offense in this game with TCU -3 here over Stanford.  I’m also getting a home-field advantage for the Horned Frogs as this game will be played in the Alamo Dome in San Antonio, Texas.  The Frogs give up just 17.6 PPG and 329 YPG which is ridiculously impressive in the Big 12 these days.  They also average 33.2 PPG and 414 YPG on offense.  Stanford only averages 32 PPG and 381 YPG on offense while giving up 21.5 PPG and 399 YPG on defense.  They are actually getting outgained by 18 YPG on the season, which is a sign that their 9-4 record is fraudulent.  Gary Patterson has had plenty of time to scheme and prepare for Stanford’s Bryce Love, which is their only real weapon offense.  The Horned Frogs only give up 100 rushing yards per game and 2.9 per carry this season.  Take TCU. 

7* Missouri/Texas NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Texas +3 

The Key: Missouri feasted on a weak schedule down the stretch to get to a bowl game.  After a 1-5 start, they reeled off 6 straight victories against Idaho, UConn, Florida, Tennessee, Vanderbilt and Arkansas.  None of those 6 teams made a bowl games.  Texas went through the Big 12 gauntlet and played both USC and Maryland out of conference.  They went 6-6, but they were competitive in every game and 4 of their 6 losses came by 5 points or less.  Tom Herman is 15-1 ATS in his coaching career as an underdog.  The wrong team is favored in this game.  Take Texas. 

7* NIU/Duke NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Northern Illinois +7 

The Key: The Northern Illinois Huskies have been one of the better Group of 5 teams in the country for years.  They kind of get overlooked this season because they ‘only’ went 8-4, but this is still a very good team that nearly won the MAC.  All four losses came by 10 points or less, including three by 7 points or fewer to Boston College (20-23), San Diego State (28-34), Central Michigan (24-31) and Toledo (17-27) with three of those losses coming on the road.  They also beat Nebraska on the road.  So they were competitive in every game, and they will be competitive against Duke here.  The Blue Devils only beat two bowl teams this season.  What gives NIU a shot to pull the upset tonight is the fact that its defense ranks 20th in the country, giving up just 20.8 PPG, 328 YPG and 4.6 YPP on the season.  The offense has been fine in scoring 30.2 PPG.  Duke’s offense has been suspect at 25.7 PPG.  This just has the makings of a low-scoring, defensive battle, and that certainly favors the underdog getting 7 points.  The Huskies are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games off two straight games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse.  The Huskies are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games.  Take Northern Illinois. 

6* App State/Toledo NCAAF *CA$H COW* on Toledo -6 

The Key: I really like this spot for the Toledo Rockets.  They lost to Appalachian State in their bowl game last season, and now they get a shot at revenge this season.  I think they will be the more hungry team because of it.  And I think Appalachian State isn’t as good as last year, while Toledo is a better football team than it was a year ago.  The Rockets won the MAC this season.  Their only 2 losses both came on the road at Miami and at Ohio.  That Ohio game wasn’t that important because they had basically clinched the MAC West with a win over Northern Illinois the week before, so it was a letdown spot.  They went on to win their final 3 games by 29, 27 and 17 points.  And that 17-point win came after they let the foot off the gas following a 35-0 lead over Akron in which they committed 5 turnovers, or it would have been an even bigger blowout.  Appalachian State lost to the likes of UMass and UL Monroe this season.  The Mountaineers are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games after leading their previous game by 24 or more points at the half.  The Rockets are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games after leading their previous game by 17 or more at the half.  Take Toledo. 

7* Central Michigan/Wyoming NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Central Michigan +3 

The Key: The Wyoming Cowboys are overrated because of Josh Allen’s NFL prospects.  But this offense has been one of the worst in the country.  The Cowboys only average 22.3 points and 287 yards per game.  That’s not very good for a QB like Allen who was expected to be a top draft choice coming into the season.  Conversely, the CMU Chippewas are rolling offensively.  They have gone 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games behind an offense that has scored at least 31 points in all 5 games while averaging 41.2 PPG.  Miami transfer Shane Morris is lighting it up at the quarterback position, and the rushing offense has really gotten going too.  I like their momentum coming into this game and simply think they are the better team and shouldn’t be catching points.  Bets against favorites of 3 to 10 points off a close road loss by 3 points or less, with a winning record playing another winning team are 39-13 ATS since 1992.  Take Central Michigan.

7* Temple/FIU NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Temple -6.5 

The Key: This is one of the bigger strength of schedule differences of any bowl game.  Temple play the much tougher slate of games.  And after struggling to start, they made the switch at quarterback and have finished strong.  They have won 3 of their last 4 with their only loss coming to unbeaten UCF to get to 6-6 and bowl eligible.  This Temple senior class has never won a bowl game and will be motivated to do so after getting upset by both Toledo and Wake Forest the past two seasons.  FIU went 8-4 this season, but only 2 of the wins came against bowl teams in Marshall and WKU.  Their 4 losses all came by 7 points or more, including 3 by 20-plus points against the better opponents they faced.  They lost by 44 to UCF and by 28 to FAU.  I think Temple is only a notch below those 2 teams.  Temple is 7-0 ATS after allowing 125 or fewer passing yards over the last 2 seasons.  The Owls are 15-3 ATS after the first month of the season over the last 2 seasons.  Temple is 11-1 ATS vs. poor passing defenses that allow 58% completions or worse over the last 2 seasons.  The Owls are 6-0 ATS in road games versus poor defensive teams that allow 5.9 or more yards per play over the last 3 years.  The Owls are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. C-USA teams.  The Golden Panthers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games.  FIU is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 non-conference games.  Take Temple. 

6* LA Tech/SMU NCAAF *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 72 

The Key: The LA Tech Bulldogs are going to try to slow down the pace in this game and play to their strengths, which is their defense and running game.  They average just 28.7 points per game and cannot keep up with SMU in a shootout.  They rush for 175 yards per game and should have success moving the sticks and slowing down the pace against an SMU defense that allows 213 rushing yards per game.  The Bulldogs only give up 26.7 points per game on the season.  This is a much different team under Skip Holtz than in year’s past.  They just beat UTSA 20-6 at home in their season finale.  It won’t be that low-scoring of a game, but it won’t exceed 72 points either.  SMU is 16-5 UNDER in its last 21 games when playing on 2 or more weeks of rest.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Bulldogs last 6 games following an ATS win.  The UNDER is 4-0 in SMU’s last 4 bowl games.  The UNDER is 14-6 in Mustangs last 20 games following a win.  Take the UNDER. 

7* Akron/FAU NCAAF *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 66 

The Key: Florida Atlantic gets too much credit for its offense and not enough for its defense.  The Owls have held each of their last six opponents to 28 points or fewer, including 17 and 12 points allowed in their last two contests.  Akron is one of the worst offensive teams that they will have faced this season.  The Zips only average 23.6 points and 330 yards this season.  They do play decent defense and should do enough to slow down the Owls.  The Zips give up 26.3 points per game.  Akron is 10-3 UNDER in all games this season.  The Zips are 8-1 UNDER off a loss by 17 points or more over the last 3 seasons.  The UNDER is 8-2 in Zips last 10 road games.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Owls last 6 December games.  Take the UNDER. 

7* Oregon/Boise State ABC *HEAVY HITTER* on Oregon -7 

The Key: Oregon was 6-1 and averaged 51.2 points in games Justin Herbert started this season, while going 1-4 and scoring 15.0 points in games he was sidelined.  That’s all you need to know about this game.  The Ducks will hang a big number on the Boise State Broncos, and they won’t be able to keep up. Take Oregon. 

6* Saturday NCAAF *BLOWOUT* on New Mexico State -9.5 

The Key: We are going to get a max-motivated New Mexico State Aggies team here Saturday.  They sit at 5-6 on the season and need one more win for bowl eligibility, while 4-7 South Alabama has been eliminated from bowl contention.  New Mexico State hasn’t been to a bowl game since 1960!  Senior QB Tyler Rodgers has been the catalyst for the turnaround.  He sat out last game with a shoulder injury, but it 100% now and will make his return on Senior Day here.  These teams have 5 common opponents.  South Alabama is getting outgained by 113 yards per game against those 5 teams, while New Mexico State is outgaining those 5 teams by 13 yards per game.  It’s clear which of these is the better team, and which will be more motivated.  South Alabama is 0-8 ATS in road games in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.  The Jaguars are 0-7 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 years.  Take New Mexico State. 

6* NCAAF Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Louisiana-Monroe +26.5 

The Key: The LA-Monroe Warhawks have held their own against some very good competition this year.  They only lost 29-37 at Memphis as 28-point dogs, and that Memphis team has just one loss on the season.  They only lost 14-42 at Auburn as 39-point dogs, and Auburn is one win away from making the four-team playoff.  Now they face a worse team than both of those squads in 5-6 Florida State.  And the Seminoles are in turmoil right now with Jimbo Fisher announcing yesterday that he was signing a 10-year, $75 million deal with Texas A&M.  Players could revolt here.  They need one more win for a bowl game, but it’s hard to believe these players even want to play in a bowl now with Fisher gone.  The Seminoles are 0-6 ATS versus good offensive teams averaging 425 or more yards per game this season.  Take Louisiana-Monroe. 

7* Akron/Toledo MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Akron +21 

The Key: The Toledo Rockets cannot be 3-touchdown favorites in the MAC Championship Game.  They beat Akron 48-21 at home earlier this season for a 27-point victory.  But the Zips have improved since then and this game will be on a neutral field, and they’ll want revenge from that defeat.  They also have a more electric quarterback running the show now in freshman Kato Nelson, who has thrown 6 TD’s against 2 INT while leading the Zips to the MAC East title down the stretch.  He also adds a dual-threat element with 167 rushing yards and a score.  MAC dogs of 12 or more in championship games are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 tries.  The Zips are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games overall.  The Zips are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Akron. 

7* Stanford/USC NCAAF Friday Night Lights on USC -3.5 

The Key: The USC Trojans have had 2 weeks to get ready for Stanford after receiving their bye last week.  The Cardinal are on a short week after a tough game against Notre Dame in which they trailed into the 4th quarter Saturday night before the Fighting Irish gave the game away with 3 turnovers.  The situation favors the Trojans, who have already beaten the Cardinal 42-24 while racking up over 600 yards of total offense against them in their first meeting this year.  The Cardinal are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win.  Take USC. 

7* NCAA Football Game of the Year on Temple -3

The Key: The Temple Owls sit at 5-6 and one win short of a bowl berth.  They will be hungry to get that 6th victory here against Tulsa, a rebuilding team that is just 2-9 on the season.  The Owls should be bigger favorites here.  After beating both Navy and Cincinnati, they lost 19-45 to unbeaten UCF last week.  But that was a misleading final as they actually outgained the Knights and held them to 384 total yards, but they lost the turnover battle 5-0, which was the difference.  Tulsa's biggest game came last week when they fell just short 20-27 at South Florida.  They won't be nearly as hungry to win this week.  I think the line value is with Temple due to last week's results from these two teams as the scores weren't indicative of the kinds of games they were.  Temple is 6-0 ATS after a game where they committed 3 or more turnovers over the last 2 seasons.  Tulsa is 0-6 ATS in home games after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons.  The Owls are 11-1 ATS versus poor defensive teams that allow 425 yards/game or more over the last 3 seasons.  Take Temple.

6* Saturday NCAAF *BLOWOUT* on Florida Atlantic -23

The Key: Lane Kiffin and the FAU Owls are absolutely rolling right now.  They are 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.  Their only non-cover came when they took an intentional safety against Marshall in the final few seconds to blow the cover.  They have 4 wins by 25-plus points in their last 6 games. and now they take on 1-10 Charlotte.  The 49ers quit last week in a 21-66 loss at Southern Miss, giving up 363 rushing yards.  FAU rushes for 280 yards per game and 6.2 per carry and should score at will on this Charlotte defense, which gives up 32.9 PPG on the season.  Charlotte has one of the worst offenses in the country, averaging just 14.4 PPG on the season.  I fully expect the Owls to win by 4-plus touchdowns in this one.  The Owls are 7-1 ATS as a favorite this season, winning by 25.4 PPG.  Bets on road favorites of 14.5 or more points (FLA ATLANTIC) - after 2 straight wins by 21 or more points against opponent after trailing in their previous game by 17 or more points at the half are 25-3 ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Take Florida Atlantic.

6* Saturday NCAAF *UPSET SPECIAL* on Tulane +8

The Key: The Tulane Green Wave are 5-6 and one win away from a bowl game.  The SMU Mustangs are 6-5 and have already clinched a bowl.  The Mustangs have not played with much intensity the last three weeks, going 0-3 SU & 1-2 ATS in their last 3 games since clinching a bowl.  I don't expect them to show up this week either.  Tulane has won 2 in a row over ECU and Houston just to put itself in this position to make a bowl.  I think they finish the deal here and pull the upset.  The matchup couldn't be better for the triple-option attack of Tulane, which averages 237 rushing yards per game and 4.9 per carry.  SMU has been awful against the run this season, giving up 217 rushing yards per game and 5.1 per carry.  They gave up 559 rushing yards to Navy and 33 to Memphis the past 2 weeks.  The Green Wave are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.  The Mustangs are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall.  The Green Wave are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 trips to SMU.  Take Tulane.

7* Cal/UCLA NCAAF Friday Night Lights on California +7

The Key: The California Golden Bears are 7-4 ATS this season and have been consistently undervalued.  They gave Stanford all they wanted on the road last week as 14-point underdogs in a 14-17 loss.  They had a bye coming into that game, so they should still be fresh for UCLA here.  The Bruins have been overrated all season and are 5-6 SU & 4-7 ATS.  It's likely Jim Mora will be fired at season's end.  The Bruins put a lot into their 23-28 loss at USC last week, and they won't be nearly as motivated to play Cal this week.  The Bruins will have played for a 7th straight week here and will be the more tired team on this short week.  The Golden Bears are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. a team with a losing record.  The Bruins are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games following an ATS win.  Take California.

6* Tuesday NCAAF *CA$H COW* on Akron -15

The Key: The Akron Zips are playing for everything tonight.  A win would send them to the MAC Championship Game to face Toledo.  They put themselves in this position by upsetting Ohio 37-34 last week as 15.5-point underdogs.  Freshman QB Nelson has given this offense a spark since starting two games ago.  He threw for 322 yards and 4 touchdowns against Ohio, while also adding 45 yards on the ground.  He is the most talented QB on Akron's roster and has a bright future with the program.  Not only is Kent State just 2-9 SU, but also 3-8 ATS this season.  The staggering stat is that all 9 of Kent State's losses have come by 14 points or more, and Akron is only being asked to cover 15 points at home tonight.  Kent State is 1-10 ATS after having lost 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games over the last 3 seasons.  Akron is 8-1 ATS after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games over the last 3 seasons.  The Zips are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 conference games.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.  The Zips are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home meetings.  Take Akron.

6* Utah/Washington Pac-12 *BAILOUT* on Utah +17.5

The Key: The Washington Huskies just blew their chances of winning the Pac-12 and making the four-team playoff with their 22-30 loss at Stanford last week.  Now, since they can't win either, I don't expect them to be fully focused on this game against Utah.  And I think they would need to be to cover this inflated 17.5-point spread.  Utah needs another win to get to a bowl game and will be motivated.  Especially after they gave away their game against Washington State last week, committing 7 turnovers and still only losing 25-33.  Utah has played Washington extremely tough the past two years.  They won 34-23 as 3-point road dogs in 2015 and only lost 24-31 as 10-point home dogs last year.  Utah is 6-0 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.  The Utes are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games.  The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.  Take Utah.

6* Conference USA Game of the Week on Florida International +14.5

The Key: The FAU Owls are starting to get too much love now after winning 6 straight and covering the spread in 5 of those.  But it's a bit of a fraudulent run considering the Owls have been outgained in 4 of those 6 games.  I think this spread would be smaller had FIU not gotten upset by ODU last week.  It would have been for first place in the conference because FIU is 4-2 and FAU is 6-0.  I actually think that benefits FIU more here because FAU knows it can afford a loss and still win its side of Conference USA.  I think FIU will be the more motivated team to prove that they are the best team in the division.  FAU can lose this game and then win at lowly Charlotte next week and still win the division, and that has to be in the back of their minds.  Either way, getting 14.5 points here is a nice price because there isn't that big of a difference separating these two teams.  It's just an inflated number, period.  FAU is 9-23 ATS in its last 32 as a home favorite.  The Owls are 4-14-1 ATS in their last 19 home games.  The dog is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.  The Golden Panthers are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.  Take Florida International.

7* Big 12 Game of the Year on Kansas +38

The Key: The Oklahoma Sooners are coming off two straight massive wins against their top two contenders in the Big 12.  They beat Oklahoma State 62-52 and TCU 38-20.  Off those two huge wins, it's only human nature for them to suffer a letdown this week.  I'm not saying they'll lose to Kansas, but they certainly won't be focused enough to beat them by more than 38 points.  Kansas is improving down the stretch going 2-1 ATS in its last 3 games.  It only loss 20-30 at home to Kansas State as 25.5-point dogs and gained 482 total yards on the Wildcats.  The Jayhawks only lost 27-42 at Texas last week despite committing 4 turnovers.  That's a great showing against a good Texas defense.  The Jayhawks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 November games.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.  Take Kansas.

7* EMU/Miami Ohio MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Miami -2.5

The Key: The Miami Redhawks need to win their final 2 games to make a bowl game.  I like their outlook now with Gus Ragland back at quarterback.  He returned from injury last week to lead the Redhawks to a 24-14 home victory over Akron, throwing 3 touchdown passes in the process.  The Eastern Michigan Eagles are 3-7 and have no hopes of making a bowl game now.  The motivation and the situation really favor the Redhawks, who have outgained 8 of their 10 opponents this season.  That is the sign of an 8-2 team, not one that is just 4-6 right now.  Take Miami Ohio.

6* SEC Game of the Week on Missouri -12.5

The Key: Don't look now but the Missouri Tigers are 4-5 and just two wins away from bowl eligibility.  That didn't look possible after their 1-5 start, but they have since reeled off 3 straight blowout victories over Idaho 68-21, Connecticut 52-12 and Florida 45-16.  I know Florida is down this season, but that 29-point win was impressive nonetheless.  And now the Tigers face another down team in Tennessee, which has lost 4 of its last 5 games coming in.  The Vols winning 24-10 last week over Southern Miss was a bit fluky because they only managed 210 total yards.  And their offense has been awful, getting shut out against Georgia, scoring just 9 against South Carolina, and managing only 7 against Alabama.  They haven't topped 26 points in any of their last 7 games coming in.  They don't have the firepower to keep up with the Tigers here.  The Vols are 8-23-1 ATS in their last 32 games following an ATS win.  The Tigers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall, and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing record.  Take Missouri.

7* Pac-12 Game of the Year on Utah +1.5

The Key: Salt Lake City is one of the toughest places to play in college football.  Utah Utes' fans are right on top of you, and it makes is a heck of a home-field advantage.  Washington State is 1-2 in true road games with its only win coming against banged-up Oregon.  The Cougars were blown out by mediocre teams in California 3-37 and Arizona 37-58 in their other two road games.  Mike Leach is 0-9 ATS after having won 8 or more of his last 10 games in all games he has coached.  He has lost in this spot by 14.7 PPG on average.  The Cougars are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games.  Take Utah.

6* Conference USA Game of the Week on Middle Tennessee -12.5

The Key: Brent Stockstill is back and healthy at quarterback under head coach Rick Stockstill.  It was a rough go of it without him.  But it's no surprised that as soon as Stockstill returned to the lineup, the Blue Raiders blew out UTEP 30-3 as 17.5-point favorites last week.  Now they get to face a 1-8 Charlotte team and still need two more wins to get bowl eligible.  Charlotte was awful in a 6-0 loss at Old Dominion last week.  They stand no chance of even being competitive against Middle Tennessee tis week.  They are scoring just 12.9 PPG on the season and won't be able to keep up with Stockstill and company.  Middle Tennessee is 8-1 ATS off 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers over the last 3 seasons.  The 49ers are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 home games.  Take Middle Tennessee.

6* Big Ten Game of the Week on Michigan State +17

The Key: The Michigan State Spartans have outgained 8 of their 9 opponents this season.  They just don't get any love from the books despite being one of the better teams in the country.  In Mark Dantonio I trust when it comes to being an underdog.  In his last 21 games as an underdog, he has pulled off the upset 14 times, going 17-4 ATS against the number.  The Spartans were double-digit dogs against both Michigan and Penn State earlier this season, and pulled off the outright upsets in both of those games.  The last 6 meetings between Michigan State and Ohio State have all been decided by 12 points or fewer.  Take Michigan State.

6* Big 12 Game of the Week on Iowa State +7

The Key: Oklahoma State is in a prime hangover spot here and is unlikely to show up at Iowa State Saturday. The Cowboys just lost to Oklahoma 52-62 last week.  Off a loss against their biggest rivals, they won't be too excited to play the Cyclones this week.  Iowa State controls its own destiny in terms of making the Big 12 Championship.  Win out and they're in the title game.  They only lost by 7 at Oklahoma State last year and by 4 at home to Oklahoma State in 2015, both times blowing double-digit leads in the 4th quarter.  I think they exorcise their demons and get the win here Saturday against the Cowboys.  The Cyclones are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games.  Take Iowa State.

7* BYU/UNLV NCAAF Friday Night Lights on UNLV -2.5

The Key: What more could possibly go wrong for BYU?  The Cougars are 2-8 on the season and just lost starting quarterback Tanner Mangum to a torn Achilles last game.  Their interest level is at an all-time low right now.  UNLV, on the other hand, is 4-5 with a legitimate shot to make a bowl game.  The Rebels have put themselves in this position by winning their last two.  They won 26-16 at Fresno State as 21.5-point dogs, and beat Hawaii 31-23 as 8-point home favorites.  Now they basically just have to win by a field goal to cover against BYU tonight.  The Cougars are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  The Rebels are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games overall.  Take UNLV.

6* Ball State/NIU MAC *CA$H COW* on Ball State +32

The Key: The price is too good to pass up with Ball State catching 32 points tonight.  No doubt they have been terrible, going 0-6 SU & 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games.  However, it's also true that they haven't been this big of an underdog all season.  And they've played much better teams than Northern Illinois.  The Huskies had their biggest game of the season last week and lost 17-27 to Toledo, and now lose out on the tiebreaker with the Rockets to win the MAC West.  They should still be reeling from that defeat and won't bring their 'A' game against Ball State this week, feeling like they can just show up to win.  The Cardinals are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games after allowing 37 points or more in 2 straight games.  Ball State is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 road games versus good rushing defenses who give up 120 or fewer rushing yards per game.  Take Ball State.

7* EMU/CMU MAC Game of the Week on Eastern Michigan -2

The Key: The Eastern Michigan Eagles have been a hard-luck team all season.  They are just 3-6, but all 6 of their losses came by 7 points or less and by a combined 23 points.  They took out their frustration with a 56-14 beat down of Ball State last week.  And they still have a very good shot to make a bowl game with winnable games against Central Michigan, Miami Ohio and Bowling Green still to come.  The Eagles are 10-1 ATS in all road games over the last 2 seasons.  They get the win and cover here against Central Michigan.  Take Eastern Michigan.

7* Bowling Green/Buffalo MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Buffalo -7.5

The Key: The Buffalo Bulls have been a hard-luck team this season.  They are just 3-6, but 4 of their 6 losses have come by 4 points or less.  They are clearly better than their record.  They still have a chance to make a bowl considering they host Bowling Green and travel to Ball State next week, which should get them to 5-6 with Ohio at home in their finale.  Ohio may have nothing to play for in that game.  So the outlook for getting to a bowl game is still pretty good.  Bowling Green is just 2-7 with its only wins coming against Kent State and Miami Ohio.  The Falcons are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  The Bulls are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall, including 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games.  Take Buffalo.

6* AAC Game of the Week on SMU +14.5

The Key: The SMU Mustangs are one of the best teams the UCF Knights have played this year.  It's time to fade UCF this week after they have opened 7-0 SU & 6-0 ATS.  They have yet to lose against the spread.  But now they're up against an SMU that can and will score on them.  The Mustangs average 41.5 PPG, including 48.6 PPG at home.  The Mustangs are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS at home this year, winning by an average of 22.8 PPG.  Bets on underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (SMU) - after having won 4 out of their last 5 games, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a winning record are 30-5 ATS over the last 5 seasons.  Take SMU.

6* Mountain West Game of the Week on Nevada +20.5

The Key: The Boise State Broncos haven't covered a spread at home since 2015.  The Broncos are 0-10 ATS in their last 10 home games.  Nevada has covered 3 in a row with a 3-point loss to Air Force and a 2-point loss to Colorado State, two of the better teams in the Mountain West.  And the Wolf Pack are coming off their bye week.  They can hang around here.  Take Nevada.

6* Ohio State/Iowa Big Ten *CA$H COW* on Iowa +18.5

The Key: This is a bad spot for Ohio State.  The Buckeyes came back from a 35-20 deficit in the 4th quarter to beat Penn State 39-38 and avenge their overtime loss last year that cost them the Big Ten title.  If they were ever going to come out flat, it would be this week in Iowa City.  Iowa has only lost 8 of its last 115 home games by more than one score, and 4 of the last 115 by more than 2 scores.  The Hawkeyes just have a knack for playing Top 5 teams tough in Iowa City.  We saw them upset Michigan as 21-point dogs last year, and they nearly upset Penn State as 13-point dogs earlier this season.  The Nittany Lions needed a TD on the final play of the game to beat them.  Take Iowa.

7* Big Ten Game of the Year on Michigan State +10

The Key: Penn State is a bad spot here.  They are deflated after blowing a big lead to lose to Ohio State 39-38 last week.  And after back-to-back emotional games against Michigan and Ohio State, they won't have much left in the tank here.  Michigan State only has one Big Ten loss and is still very much alive to win the conference.  I think the Spartans come to play today and pull off the upset.  The Spartans have outgained 7 of their 8 opponents this year and are one of the most improved teams in the country.  Penn State is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses over the last 3 seasons.  Michigan State is 7-0 ATS in home games in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.  Take Michigan State.

6* Big 12 Game of the Week on Kansas +7.5

The Key: Both the Baylor Bears and Kansas Jayhawks have their best chance to get a Big 12 win this week because they play each other.  I think the Jayhawks at home have the better shot of getting that win, and we're getting 7.5 points with them.  They are coming off one of their best performances of the season.  They lost 20-30 to Kansas State as 25.5-point dogs and should have won that game.  They racked up 482 total yards on a good K-State defense, including 418 through the air.  Baylor is 2-10 ATS as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.  The Bears are 1-9 ATS off a home games over the last 2 years.  The Jayhawks are 9-1 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. bad defensive teams who give up 34 or more points per game.  Take Kansas.

7* UCLA/Utah NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Utah -7

The Key: Josh Rosen has a hand injury and will be a game-time decision tonight.  I would like Utah at -7 whether or not he plays, but if he doesn't it would obviously he would be a huge bonus.  Rosen hasn't practiced all week.  The Utes are hungry for a victory after losing 4 straight against a brutal schedule of Stanford, USC, ASU and Oregon.  Playing in the friendly confines of Salt Lake City tonight should help them get back on track.  The Bruins are 2-4 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games and have been overvalued all year.  They don't play any defense, giving up 37.6 points per game overall, including 49.2 points per game on the road.  They are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS on the road this year and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games overall.  Take Utah.

6* Navy/Temple AAC *CA$H COW* on Temple +7.5

The Key: I think the situation really favors the Temple Owls here.  Temple just faced a triple-option team in Army last time out, giving up a late touchdown and losing 28-31 in OT on the road.  So they were well-versed in the option right now and had their bye last week to get even more ready for it.  The Owls have played much better of late and should be 3-0 in their last 3 games instead of 1-2, which is keeping them undervalued.  Temple outgained ECU by 236 yards in a 34-10 road win, outginaed UConn by 225 yards in a 24-28 home loss, and then outgained Army by 117 yards in that overtime defeat.  Navy has been outgained in 3 straight games. I think this Midshipmen team is much more vulnerable than most years.  They are 5-2, but 4 of those wins came by 10 points or less, so they haven't been blowing teams out.  Temple is 8-1 ATS as a dog of 3.5 to 10 points over the last 3 seasons.  The Owls are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Temple.

7* Miami/Ohio MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Miami +10

The Key: The Miami Ohio Redhawks were expected to contend for a MAC title this year after going 6-0 over their final 6 regular season games last year.  They brought back 17 starts from that team.  So their 3-5 start comes as a bit of a surprise, and it has them getting zero respect from the books right now.  Conversely, Ohio is coming off back-to-back blowout wins over Bowling Green and Kent State and getting a lot of love.  But this is a team that lost to Central Michigan 23-26 at home prior to those two wins against MAC bottom feeders.  A big reason for the Redhawks' struggles is that they have been without starting QB Gus Ragland, who is a game-time decision tonight and may return since they had extra time before this game after last playing on November 21st.  The Redhawks still have a shot at a bowl game and will be fighting tooth and nail to get back to one.  The Bobcats are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.  The Redhawks are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 road games.  Take Miami Ohio.

6* Mississippi State/Texas A&M SEC *CA$H COW* on Texas A&M +2.5

The Key: Wrong team favored here.  Texas A&M is coming off its bye week and will be ready for Mississippi State both from preparation and rest standpoints.  The Aggies played Alabama tougher than anyone this season, only losing 19-27 as 25-point home dogs.  Maybe even more impressive was the fact that they didn't have a letdown the next week and beat Florida 19-17 on the road.  Mississippi State's last two road games have resulted in 3-31 and 10-49 blowout losses at Georgia and Auburn, respectively.  College Station is still one of the tougher places to play in college football.  Texas A&M was favored by 10 at Mississippi State last year and lost outright 28-35.  So it's a revenge game, and now they are dogs at home this time around AND off a bye.  The price is too good to pass up.  Take Texas A&M.

7* NCAAF Blowout Game of the Year on Florida Atlantic -6.5

The Key: The Florida Atlantic Owls are absolutely rolling right now.  And the markets haven't caught up to them yet.  They still haven't caught up to them this week.  They have gone 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games.  They get quick-strike touchdowns that their opponents can't get.  It's an FAU team that has hung 58 and 69 points in their last two games.  Western Kentucky has been getting too much respect in the betting markets all season with a 1-5-1 ATS record.  They have some awful performances against bad teams, including their 35-31 win over Old Dominion, the same ODU team that FAU waxed 58-28.  Take Florida Atlantic.

6* Penn State/Ohio State Big Ten *CA$H COW* on UNDER 58

The Key: With the Big Ten title basically on the line in this game, I expect it to be played closer to the vest.  What I mean by that is fewer chances taken and field position being the priority.  Both teams will be tight for this game.  And there's no question that these are the two best defenses that these teams have faced all season.  Penn State is allowing 9.6 PPG and 283 YPG and 4.0 YPP.  Ohio State is allowing 15.4 PPG, 305 YPG and 4.5 YPP.  Weather may be an issue as well with rain forecast for Saturday.  Take the UNDER.

6* FSU/Boston College NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Florida State -5

The Key: This line before the season would have been Florida State favored by roughly 21.  I think the price is right to pull the trigger now on the Seminoles as only 5-point favorites.  They have played one of the toughest schedules in the country which is why they are 2-4.  And if they are going to make a bowl game, they need this win over Boston College.  This is a prideful program and Jimbo Fisher does not want the bowl streak to come to an end.  Look for the Seminoles to handle their business tonight.  The Seminoles are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games after allowing 6.75 or more yards per play in their previous game.  Take Florida State.

6* Thursday MAC *CA$H COW* on Eastern Michigan +7.5

The Key: The Eastern Michigan Eagles are just 2-5 this season, but they have now lost 5 straight games by 7 points or less.  And dating back to last year, their last 7 losses have come by 7 points or fewer.  So we are getting a nice price with them here as +7.5 dogs to Northern Illinois.  The last 5 losses have all come to quality teams in Ohio, Kentucky, Toledo, Army and Western Michigan.  If they can play with those 5 teams, they can hang with Northern Illinois this week.  They will also be out to avenge a 31-24 home loss to NIU last year after they blew a 21-0 halftime lead.  We'll get a big effort from the Eagles in this game.  The Eagles are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games, and 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The road team is 12-3-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings.  Take Eastern Michigan.

6* Colorado/WSU Pac-12 *BAILOUT* on OVER 52

The Key: This total has been set too low tonight because Washington State has gone under the total in 4 straight games coming in.  That includes their 3-37 loss at Cal last week.  But they gave that game away by committing 7 turnovers as their offense just couldn't punch it in, turning it over 7 times in 13 drives, which is tough to do.  Look for a much more efficient showing from an offense that had scored at least 31 points in 5 straight games to start the season.  And Colorado will chip in its fair share with an offense that has scored at least 36 points in 4 of 7 games this year.  But the Buffaloes have taken a big step back defensively this season, giving up 35.5 points per game in conference play this season.  Colorado is 20-4 OVER in its last 24 road games after 2 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers.  These teams combined for 62 points last year in a 38-24 Colorado victory.  Expect a similar final score here in Washington State's favor.  Take the OVER.

6* Fresno/SDSU Mountain West *BAILOUT* on Fresno State +7.5

The Key: The Fresno State Bulldogs have gone 6-0 against the spread this season.  They have only lost to Alabama and Washington, two of the best teams in the land.  There's a good reason this line has dropped from +10.5 down to +7.5, but I still think there's plenty of value on backing the Bulldogs here in a game they can win outright.  San Diego State players were quoted as saying that they had the goal of going undefeated coming into the season.  But that goal was ended last week with a 14-31 home loss to Boise State.  It's the type of dream-crushing loss that is tough to recover from the next week.  I expect SDSU to be flat in this game here.  The Bulldogs are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games overall.   The Bulldogs are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 vs. teams with winning records.  Take Fresno State.

6* WVU/Baylor Big 12 *CA$H COW* on West Virginia -9

The Key: If Baylor was going to show improvement, it would have been last week when they were coming off their bye week, giving Matt Rhule two weeks to tweak some things.  But they fell flat on their faces once again to drop to 0-6 on the season.  They lost 16-59 at Oklahoma State, giving up 747 total yards to the Cowboys.  Now they have to face one of the best offenses in the country in West Virginia this week.  This number is short because WVU can name its number Saturday.  The Mountaineers are scoring 44.2 points per game and averaging 548 total yards per game despite playing a pretty difficult schedule against the likes of VA Tech, TCU and Texas Tech thus far.  Baylor is only 4-13 ATS in its last 17 games as a home dog of 7.5 to 14 points. WVU is 12-2 ATS in its last 12 road games when playing a team that is winning 25% or less of its games.  The Mountaineers are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  Take West Virginia.

7* Conference USA Game of the year on Louisiana Tech -2.5

The Key: The Louisiana Tech Bulldogs are in a good spot here coming off their bye week.  They are just 3-3 this season, but they have suffered two 1-point losses this season both on the road at South Carolina (17-16) and UAB (22-23).  But this team has been a great bet at home through the years.  LA Tech is 15-4 ATS in its last 19 games off an upset loss as a favorite.  The Bulldogs are 13-2 ATS in their last 15 home games off two straight unders.  Take Louisiana Tech.

6* WMU/EMU MAC *CA$H COW* on Eastern Michigan +3

The Key: I faded Western Michigan last week by backing Akron as my MAC Game of the Year, and the Zips delivered an outright 14-13 win as 13-point dogs.  And that game was played on Sunday due to getting postponed for weather on Saturday.  That means Western Michigan is working on a short week.  The Broncos just aren't anywhere near as good as they were last year with PJ Fleck, Zach Terrell and Corey Davis, but they are still getting treated like that team by oddsmakers.  Eastern Michigan went to a bowl last year and basically returned everyone.  But they have lost 4 straight games by 7, 4, 5 and 1 point drop to 2-4 on the season.  That 2-4 record has them getting no love from oddsmakers despite the fact that they've gone 5-1 against the spread.  Now they take out their frustration on the vulnerable Broncos today.  The Eagles are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Eastern Michigan.