Sports Picks & Predictions

20* NBA Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Oklahoma City Thunder +2.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder gave the Golden State Warriors all they wanted in a 139-141 loss without their best player in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.  He returned to lead them to a 126-117 home win over the surging Atlanta Hawks last time out.

Now the Thunder are rested and ready to go playing just their 2nd game in 5 days with their best player back.  They have been the single-most undervalued team in the NBA over the last three years and are off to an impressive 5-2 ATS start this season.

The Cleveland Cavaliers are 3-4 SU & 2-5 ATS this season and remain overvalued here as road favorites.  This is a potential letdown spot for the Cavaliers after beating the Warriors 115-104 at home last time out.  They are getting healthier too and will be a bet on team soon, just not tonight.

Oklahoma City is 27-8 ATS in its last 35 games vs. poor offensive teams scoring 108 points per game or fewer.  The Thunder have won each of their last two meetings with the Cavaliers 112-100 at home and 108-105 on the road, which came earlier this season as 2.5-point dogs.  Now they are 2.5-point home dogs in the rematch in a game I expect them to win outright.  Bet the Thunder Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Florida Atlantic -6

The Florida Atlantic Owls went 35-4 last season and made the Final Four.  Amazingly, all five starters return from that team in Johnell Davis (13.8 PPG), Alijah Martin (13.4 PPG), Vladislav Golden (10.2 PPG, 6.5 RPG), Nick Boyd (8.9 PPG) and Bryan Greenlee (7.3 PPG).  It's safe to say this team is going to have a lot of chemistry from the jump.

Loyola-Chicago went 10-21 last season and 4-14 in Atlantic 10 play.  No question they will be improved this season, but they are getting too much respect here for a team that just isn't as dominant since losing Porter Moser to Oklahoma.  Drew Valentine has not been able to fill the massive shoes he left behind.

Florida Atlantic is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 non-conference games.  Loyola-Chicago is 9-22 ATS in its last 31 games overall.  Bet Florida Atlantic Wednesday.

15* CBB PLAY OF THE DAY on Iowa -19.5

The Iowa Hawkeyes dominate in non-conference play every year, especially at home.  The Hawkeyes are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 non-conference home games.  They are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 home games overall.  Fran McCaffery is 100-62 ATS as a home favorite as the coach of IOwa, including 55-29 ATS as a home favorite of 10 points or more.

Paul Sather is 11-26 ATS in non-conference games as the coach of North Dakota.  Sather is 19-40 ATS in road games as their head coach.  North Dakota went 13-20 last season and won't be much better in 2023.

Iowa is undervalued due to losing Kris Murray to the NBA draft.  They bring back seniors Tony Perkins and Patrick McCaffery, and junior Payton Sandfort to form a veteran core.  The freshman class is a good one with Pryce Sandfort, Brock Harding, Owen Freeman and Ladji Dembele.

Freeman will make an immediate impact with his size and skill, and he was teammates with Harding as they won a 4A State Championship together at Moline.  Harding was Mr. Basketball in Illinois in 2023.  Pryce Sandfort is Payton's younger brother and was Iowa's Mr. Basketball last season.  Dembele was a 4-start recruit from Africa and has been crushing it in the weight room, getting up to 260 pounds.  Bet Iowa Tuesday.

20* USC/Kansas State CBB Season Opener on USC -2.5

USC returns leading scorer Boogie Ellis, who averaged 17.7 points per game last season and is the USC Preseason Player of the Year.  They added ESPN's No. 1-ranked recruit in the class of 2023 in Isaiah Collier, who was named the co-MVP of the McDonald's All-American game after scoring 25 points.  

Junior guard Kobe Johnson and 6-foot-11 senior Joshua Morgan are both great defensively and can score.  7-foot-1 Vincent Iwuchukwu returns from a healthy scorer and senior DJ Rodman transfers in from Washington State.  They will be just fine as they await the debut of Bronny James, who had a health scare with his heart.

Kansas State is overvalued after making a run to the Elite 8 last year.  Gone to the NBA are Keyontae Johnson and Markquis Nowell, who combined to average 35 of K-State's 76.2 points per game last year.  The leading return scorer is Nae'Qwan Tomlin, who averaged 10.4 points and 5.9 boards last season.  But Tomlin is suspended to start the season, leaving the Wildcats with not much experience at all in what will be a rebuilding year.

This game will be played on a neutral court, but USC will have the crowd advantage with the short trip to Paradise, NV at T-Mobile Arena.  Andy Enfield is 9-1 ATS as a neutral court favorite of 3 points or less or PK as the coach of USC.  Bet USC Monday.

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Utah Jazz +8.5

The Utah Jazz are coming off a tough 2-point home loss to the Orlando Magic.  That followed up a 133-109 home win over Memphis the previous night as it was the 2nd of a back-to-back for them.  They also played the defending champion Nuggets tough in a 102-110 road loss as 8.5-point road dogs in their previous game.  This team is trending in the right direction.

Speaking of the defending champion Nuggets, the Timberwolves just beat them 110-89 at home to avenge their playoff loss to the Nuggets last season.  They will be flat as a pancake off such a big win.  I don't expect them to play with the kind of intensity tonight that it's going to take to put away the Jazz by 9-plus points.

Home-court advantage meant nothing in this series last season.  The road team went 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS with the Jazz winning outright as 4.5-point road dogs and outright as 8-point road dogs.  Utah is 21-7 ATS in its last 28 games after losing two of its last three games.  The Jazz are 35-15 ATS in their last 50 games as underdogs.  Bet the Jazz Saturday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Orlando Magic +4

The Orlando Magic will be out for revenge from a 103-106 road loss to the Lakers are 3-point underdogs on October 30th just a few days ago.  Now they are 4-point home underdogs in the rematch, which is too big of an adjustment.

I know the Magic will be without Wendell Carter Jr., but they are a deep team and can handle the loss.  The Lakers are without Gabe Vincent and Rui Hachimura and could be without Taurean Prince tonight.  They aren't a very deep team and can't afford these losses.

While the Magic will be highly motivated for revenge, the Lakers won't be that motivated at all to beat the Magic for the 2nd time in a week.  That's especially the case considering it's also a massive letdown spot for the Lakers coming off a 130-125 (OT) win over the Clippers that ended an 11-game losing streak in the series.  The Lakers will be flat as a pancake tonight.  Bet the Magic Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Wizards +9.5

The Miami Heat needed the play-in round just to make the playoffs as a No. 8 seed last year.  They struggled in the regular season and were one of the biggest money burners in the NBA.  But they turned it on in the playoffs to make it all the way to the NBA Finals.  Postseason Miami is much better than regular season Miami.

That is playing out in the early going again this season.  The Heat whiffed on Damian Lillard while also losing two key role players in Gabe Vincent and Max Strus in the offseason.  The Heat are 1-4 SU & 0-4-1 ATS through five games with their lone win coming by a single point at home against the lowly Detroit Pistons as 9.5-point favorites.  They lost by 8 at Boston, by 16 at Minnesota and by 8 at Milwaukee.  They were also upset as 6.5-point home favorites by the Nets.

I know the Wizards are rebuilding and not very good, but Miami cannot be expected to win by double-digits against anyone right now, which is what it's going to take to beat us.  The Wizards have played a tough schedule with their three losses to Indiana, Boston and Atlanta, and they covered in that loss to the Hawks.  They also beat Memphis at home.  They can hang with the Heat tonight.

Each of the last four meetings between Washington and Miami were decided by 8 points or less.  Six of the last seven meetings were decided by 8 points or less as well.  Miami is 2-14 ATS in its last 16 games as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points.  Bet the Wizards Friday.

15* NBA Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Orlando Magic +1

This is a good spot to back the Orlando Magic.  They are coming off consecutive losses to the Lakers and Clippers on the road, which was a tough spot playing them on back-to-back days.  Those are also two of the best teams in the NBA.  Now the Magic take a big step down in class here against the Utah Jazz.  They are rested and ready to go playing just their 3rd game in 6 days, and they are fully healthy.

The spot couldn't be much worse for the Jazz.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days.  They beat Memphis last night, but everyone is beating Memphis as the Grizzlies are still in search of their first victory.  The Jazz won't have a whole lot left in the tank for the Magic tonight.

The Magic are 21-10 ATS in their last 31 non-conference games.  The Jazz are 6-18 ATS in their last 24 games as home favorite of 6 points or fewer.  Orlando is 17-6 ATS in its last 23 games following two consecutive road games.  Bet the Magic Thursday.

20* Clippers/Lakers ESPN No-Brainer on Los Angeles Clippers +5.5

I took a bad number here as it moved to +7 shortly after I released it on the news that both Kawhi Leonard and Paul George are questionable to play tonight due to rest.  I still think the Clippers can be competitive with the Lakers if one or both sit.

The Clippers are 11-0 SU & 10-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings with the Lakers.  It's rare you get the opportunity to back them as underdogs to the Lakers, and the only reason we are tonight is due to the rest situation and the Clippers playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 118-102 win over the Magic last night.  But that was a blowout and the starters rested late in the 4th quarter and will still be fresh if they play tonight, plus there's no travel involved getting to stay at home here.

This is a fade of the Lakers more than anything.  The Lakers are 2-2 SU & 0-4 ATS this season with their two wins coming 100-95 at home over the Suns, who were playing without both Booker and Beal, and 106-103 at home over the Magic who were playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  They haven't blown out anyone and aren't going to blow out the Clippers tonight.  Bet the Clippers Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on Milwaukee Bucks -4.5

It was going to take some time for Giannis, Lillard and the Bucks to gel.  Now that they have three games under their belts, I like the prospects of this team moving forward.  The Giants/Lillard pick and roll is pretty much unstoppable.

The Toronto Raptors are clearly one of the worst teams in the NBA this season.  They lost Fred VanVleet in the offseason and their offense ranks dead last in the NBA in efficiency.  They are scoring just 99.5 points per game on 42.5% shooting this season, which is terrible in today's NBA.

The Raptors are 1-3 SU this season and lost by 7 to the 76ers and by 8 to the Blazers in their last two home games coming in.  That's a really bad loss to Portland because they are also one of the worst teams in the NBA.  This will be their toughest test yet.

Milwaukee is 37-17 ATS in its last 54 games as a road favorite.  Bet the Bucks Wednesday.

20* NBA GAME OF THE WEEK on San Antonio Spurs +7.5

The San Antonio Spurs took both the Dallas Mavericks and Houston Rockets to the wire in their first two games this season.  But they were blasted by 40 points on the road to the Los Angeles Clippers last time out.  Now it's time to 'buy low' on the Spurs catching 7.5 points against the Phoenix Suns.

Conversely, it's time to 'sell high' on the Suns after opening 3-0 ATS through their first three games.  It's going to catch up with them not having Devin Booker and Bradley Beal because this team doesn't have much talent outside the Big 3 in those two and Durant.  They shouldn't be favored by 7.5 points here over the Spurs without Booker and Beal tonight.

Phoenix is 32-54 ATS in its last 86 home games following a win by 20 points or more.  Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (San Antonio) - after scoring 95 points or less against an opponent that scored 125 points or more are 38-13 (74.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Spurs Tuesday.

15* NBA Western Conference ANNIHILATOR on New Orleans Pelicans -3.5

The New Orleans Pelicans have been dominant when Zion Williams, CJ McCollum and Brandon Ingram have been healthy at the same time.  They had the best record in the West last season before Zion went down.  They are off to a 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS start this season, winning 111-104 at Memphis and 96-87 at home over the Knicks.

While the Pelicans are rested and ready to go tonight playing just their 2nd game in 5 days, the Golden State Warriors will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd road game in 4 days.  They won't have much left in the tank for the Pelicans tonight, and don't be surprised to see them rest a starter or two.

The home team went 4-0 SU in four meetings between the Warriors and Pelicans last season with the home team winning by 9 points or more in all four.  Golden State is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 games as a road dog of 6 points or less and was one of the worst road teams in the NBA last season.  Bet the Pelicans Monday.

15* NBA Monday Night BLOWOUT on Milwaukee Bucks -5

The Milwaukee Bucks will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back tonight, but not all back-to-backs are created equal.  They were blasted 127-110 at home by the Hawks last night, so they will be motivated to bounce back with a victory.  There's no travel involved as they are home again tonight, and the blowout nature of that loss meant the Bucks didn't play their starters much in the 4th quarter.  They should still be fresh and pissed off to bounce back.

Adding to their motivation is the fact that they were knocked out of the playoffs in the 1st round by the Miami Heat last year.  They want revenge, and they could have easily been overlooking the Hawks yesterday and looking ahead to this revenge game.

The Heat are one of the most overvalued teams in the NBA this season because of their historic run to the NBA Finals as an 8th seed.  They are much worse in the regular season than they are in the playoffs, needing the play-in round just to get into the playoffs last year.  They struck out on Damian Lillard in the offseason, and now he's with the Bucks.  The Heat just lack talent overall especially after losing Gabe Vincent and Max Strus.

Miami is 1-2 SU & 0-2-1 ATS this season with their lone win coming 103-102 at home as 9.5-point favorites against Detroit.  They then lost by 8 as 8-point dogs at Boston and by 16 as 8.5-point dogs at Minnesota.  They are without two key role players in Caleb Martin and Josh Richardson, leaving too much on Jimmy Butler's shoulders.  They are relying on aging veterans Kyle Lowry and Kevin Love.  Their only good three healthy players are Butler, Adebayo and Herro, who is making his way back from injury.  This is a team I want to fade early in the season.  

Milwaukee is 16-6 ATS in its last 22 games as a home favorite of 6 points or less.  Plays on favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Milwaukee) - off an upset loss as a favorite, in the first 6 games of the season, a playoff team from last season that lost 4 or more of their final 5 games are 54-22 (71.1%) ATS since 1996.  Bet the Bucks Monday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Indiana Pacers -2.5

The Indiana Pacers are one of the most talented young teams in the NBA this season.  They brought back all their key pieces from last season including Haliburton, Mathurin and Turner.  They added Denver's key 6th man in Bruce Brown and Obi Toppin from the Knicks.

The Pacers are off an running with a 143-120 home win over the Wizards as 5-point favorites and a 125-113 road win at Cleveland as 3-point favorites.  There's value on the Pacers are only 2.5-point home favorites to the Chicago Bulls tonight.  The Pacers rank 1st in offensive efficiency and 3rd in pace through two games.

The Bulls are 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS this season with their lone win coming by a single point in OT at home against the Raptors where they needed a late comeback just to force OT.  The Bulls lost 104-124 as 2.5-point home favorites to OKC and 102-118 as 2.5-point road favorites at Detroit.  This is a bad Chicago team relying on a bunch of veterans that are pair their primes.  There's not much to like about this team, and Billy Donovan may be the first coach fired.

Indiana went 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its final three meetings with Chicago last season.  The Bulls are 6-17 ATS in their last 23 games following a road loss.  Indiana is 17-7 ATS in its last 24 games when playing just its 2nd game in 5 days.  Bet the Pacers Monday.

15* Lakers/Kings NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento -2.5

Getting the Sacramento Kings as a short home favorite over the Los Angeles Lakers is a discount.  The Lakers were blasted by the Nuggets 119-107 on the road in their opener.  They needed a big 4th quarter comeback to beat the Suns 100-95 at home despite the Suns being without both Devin Booker and Bradley Beal.  The Lakers aren't hitting on all cylinders in the early going, and we'll fade them here today with LeBron James on a minutes restriction early.

The Sacramento Kings brought back 10 players that won the Pacific Division and took the Warriors to 7 games in the playoffs last year.  They brought back all five starters.  They are healthy to start the season and blasted Utah 130-114 on the road in their opener.  Now we get the chance to 'buy low' on the Kings after losing 114-122 at home to the Warriors last time out.  They simply hat an off shooting night at 43.6% while the Warriors were on fire at 55.2%.  The Lakers don't shoot it like the Warriors do.

The Kings went 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS against the Lakers last season with their lone loss coming by 2 points, and all three wins coming by 5 points or more.  The Kings are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 games following a home loss.  Bet the Kings Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Oklahoma City Thunder +4.5

I like backing teams early in the season with a lot of chemistry.  The Oklahoma City Thunder have the best young nucleus in the entire NBA.  They made the play-in round last year and are in line for bigger things this year.

The Thunder returned four starters and get a healthy Chet Holmgren at center this season.  They have key holdovers coming off the bench, plus add rookie Cason Wallace to the mix.  This is basically the same team as last year except with the additions of Holmgren and Wallace.  

They're off to a good start with a dominant 124-104 win at Chicago as 2.5-point road dogs in the opener and a 108-105 win at Cleveland as 2.5-point road dogs.  Now the Thunder get their home opener and have some of the best fans in the NBA.  You know they are going to turn out to support this team with the defending NBA champion Denver Nuggets coming to town Sunday.

I think the Nuggets are being overvalued due to winning the title and are going to be fighting a championship hangover early in the season.  They were able to escape with a win over the Lakers in the opener with a big 4th quarter, and also escaped with a 108-104 win at Memphis as 5.5-point road favorites.  Memphis is way down early in the season without JA Morant while missing a few other guys to key injuries.  This will be Denver's toughest test of the young season by far.

The Thunder are 31-12 ATS in their last 43 games after allowing 105 points or less.  The Thunder are 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings with the Nuggets.  Bet the Thunder Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Detroit Pistons +2.5

The Detroit Pistons are grossly undervalued to open the season.  They only had Cade Cunningham for the first 12 games last season.  Cunningham is back and paired with Jaden Ivey in the backcourt, and this team has a lot of chemistry as they bring back mostly all the same guys and have a ton of depth.

That has shown in their first two games this season as they nearly upset Miami in a 102-103 loss as 9.5-point road dogs.  Then they upset Charlotte 111-99 as 4.5-point dogs last night.  Their depth will help them a lot in these back-to-back situations, and they won't have any problem coming up with the energy tonight in their home opener in front of some excited Detroit fans ready to see this team.

The spot is much worse for the Bulls on the 2nd of a back-to-back.  They needed OT to beat Toronto 104-103 as 2.5-point home favorites last night.  DeRozan played 41 minutes, Vucevic 40 minutes, White 40 minutes and LaVine 38 minutes last night.  Now LaVine has a back injury and is questionable.  The Bulls don't have near the depth that the Pistons do.  

Chicago has been overvalued as well losing by 20 at home to the Thunder as 2.5-point favorites and then barely beating a rebuilding Toronto team as short home favorites.  They should not be favored on the road here against the upstart Pistons.  Bet the Pistons Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Orlando Magic -2.5

I like backing teams early in the season that have a lot of chemistry.  That's especially the case when they are facing a team with no chemistry and a lot of new faces.  That's what we have here with the Orlando Magic over the Portland Trail Blazers.

The Magic were one of the most profitable teams to back in the 2nd half of the season last year because they were healthy and formed chemistry with their young nucleus.  They returned all 5 starters from that team plus key bench players in Cole Anthony, Gary Harris and Mo Wagner.  They also have a healthy Jonathan Isaac to start the season, plus added veteran Joe Ingles.

The Magic blasted the Rockets 116-86 in the opener at home.  Now they take on a Blazers team that lost 111-123 on the road at the Clippers, and that was an even bigger blowout than the score showed as the Clippers called off the dogs up 26 points going into the 4th.

The Blazers are adjusting to life without Damian Lillard.  They are relying on newcomers Scoot Henderson, DeAndre Ayton, Malcolm Brogdon and Robert Williams III to try and pick up the pieces.  It's going to take some time for these guys to gel with holdovers Jerami Grant, Anfernee Simons and Matisse Thybulle.  Bet the Magic Friday.

20* Warriors/Kings ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento -3

I like backing teams early in the season that have a lot of chemistry.  The Kings returned 10 players from a team that won the Pacific Division last season and took the Warriors to 7 games in the playoffs.  They returned all five starters.  Now they want revenge from getting bounced in the playoffs by the Warriors, and they don't have to wait long to get it.

They host a Warriors team that is coming off a 108-104 home loss to the Phoenix Suns.  The Warriors aren't at full strength in the early going, missing Draymond Green right now with an ankle injury.  He is missed on both ends of the court, especially defensively.  Things come easier for Stephen Curry when he's out there setting screens for him, and without him the Warriors just don't run as smoothly, and too much is on Curry's shoulders.

Golden State is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 games as a road dog of 6 points or less.  Bet the Kings Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Oklahoma City Thunder +3.5

I like backing teams early in the season with a lot of chemistry.  The Oklahoma City Thunder have the best young nucleus in the entire NBA.  They made the play-in round last year and are in line for bigger things this year.

The Thunder returned four starters and get a healthy Chet Holmgren at center this season.  They have key holdovers coming off the bench, plus add rookie Cason Wallace to the mix.  This is basically the same team as last year except with the additions of Holmgren and Wallace.  They're off to a good start with a dominant 124-104 win at Chicago in the opener.

Now they take on a Cleveland Cavaliers team with injury problems in the early going.  The Cavaliers are without C Jarrett Allen, which really hurts them defensively.  They could also be without PG Darius Garland, who is nursing a hamstring injury.  They should not be 3.5-point favorites over the Thunder without these two.  They escaped with a 114-113 win at Brooklyn in the opener, but won't be as fortunate tonight as they take a big step up in class against OKC.  Bet the Thunder Friday.

20* Suns/Lakers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -5.5

The Phoenix Suns are going to be without both Devin Booker and Bradley Beal tonight.  They can't afford to lose these two, especially Booker, with their lack of depth and talent.  They're relying on Kevin Durant and a bunch of replacement-level players tonight.

Booker went 13-of-21 for 32 points and 8 assists to lead the Suns to a 108-104 upset victory at Golden State on opening night.  The rest of the Suns went 29-of-74 (39.2%) from the field in that game, so he is going to be desperately missed.

The Lakers should fire back here after giving the Denver Nuggets a run for their money on the road only to fall short in the 4th quarter.  They are back home here where they have been dominant dating back to the end of last season.  The Lakers are 12-3 SU & 9-6 ATS in their last 15 home games.

I love the additions of Vincent, Prince, Reddish and Wood to go along with all five returning starters for the Lakers, though Jared Vanderbilt remains out in the early going.  Their great depth plus the lack of depth for the Suns right now will be the key to them winning this one handily.

The home team is 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings between the Lakers and Suns.  Bet the Lakers Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Pistons +9

A shin injury ended Cade Cunningham's season after 12 games last year and pretty much ended their season.  He comes back healthy this season, and he and Jaden Ivey form one of the most underrated backcourt duos in the NBA.  I think the Pistons come into the season undervalued as a result.  They have great depth with Alec Burks, Joe Harris, Marvin Bagley III and James Wiseman coming off the bench.

The Miami Heat were terrible in the regular season last year and barely made the playoffs, needing the play-in round to get through.  They would go on a crazy run to the NBA Finals behind Jimmy Butler's heroics.  But regular season Jimmy is much different than playoff Jimmy.  I think there will be a hangover effect early in the season for the Heat after coming up just short, losing to the Denver Nuggets in the NBA Finals.

It was a tough offseason for the Heat, who struck out on Damian Lillard and watched key role players Gabe Vincent and Max Strus go elsewhere.  They will get Tyler Herro back from a broken wrist, but depth is going to be an issue, especially with Josh Richardson out to start the season.  They are going to be relying on Kevin Love, Thomas Bryant , Duncan Robinson, Caleb Martin and Nikoa Jovic.  This is one of the worst benches in the NBA, plus starting PG Kyle Lowry isn't getting any younger and declining rapidly.

Miami is 22-39 ATS in its last 61 games as a favorite.  The Heat are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games as home favorites of 6.5 to 12 points.  Bet the Pistons Wednesday.

20* Lakers/Nuggets 2023 NBA Season Opener on Los Angeles +6

The Los Angeles Lakers were swept by the Denver Nuggets in the playoffs last year.  But all four games went down to the wire with three decided by 6 points or less, including both meetings in Denver.  The Lakers will be out for revenge on the Nuggets, and I like their chances of staying within this inflated number.

There's usually a championship hangover early in the season for teams that win the NBA Finals.  They just don't come back as motivated to start the next season, and it's very tough to repeat.  I think the Nuggets will be going through the motions early in the season.

"If anybody is still talking about the Lakers in the NBA Finals, that's on them." said Denver head coach Michael Malone in June.  "The've gone fishing. We're still playing.".  The comment angered LeBron James and Anthony Davis.

"It was just a lot of talking," Davis said on media day earlier this month. "We get it, y'all won, but me and Bron had some conversations.  We can't wait to play them."

"I go play every game the way I'm going to pgo play the first game against them," Lakers guard Austin Reaves said. "But I think it adds a little bit of motivation to go play really well."

The Nuggets lost key 6th man Bruce Brown and Jeff Green in the offseason.  The Lakers added Gabe Vincent, Cam Reddish and Taurean Prince to a very experienced roster.  I like the moves the Lakers made to get better, and I think the Nuggets are down a notch from last year after losing Brown especially.  Bet the Lakers Tuesday.

15* Heat/Nuggets Game 5 ANNIHILATOR on Miami +9

The Miami Heat have had their backs against the wall all playoffs and have thrived in this situation.  They won't go down without a fight in Game 5 tonight.  The Denver Nuggets have never won an NBA Title, so the pressure is all on them now to try and close out this series.  I think the Heat hang around in Game 5 and possibly pull off the upset similar to when they did in Game 2 in Denver.

The Nuggets are not a very good defensive team, but the Heat just haven't shot the ball that well in this series with the exception of Game 2 when they shot 48.7% and won outright.  They shot just 40.6% in Game 1, 37% in Game 3 and 44.9% in Game 4.  I have to think Miami is in line for a better shooting Game 5.  The Nuggets have shot 49.4% or better in every game in this series and have some regression in store.

Miami is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 road games after losing four or five of its last six games coming in.  The Nuggets are 6-19 ATS in their last 25 games following two consecutive wins by 10 points or more.  Bet the Heat in Game 5 Monday.

25* NBA Finals GAME OF THE YEAR on Miami Heat +3.5

The Miami Heat have only lost two consecutive games once in the entire playoffs.  That was when they nearly blew a 3-0 lead to the Celtics, only to really show their resiliency by taking Game 7 in Boston.  They will come through once again with their backs against the wall in Game 4 tonight.

Everything went wrong for the Heat in Game 3 as they shot just 37% as a team while the Nuggets shot 51.2% and got huge games from both Jokic and Murray.  The shots will fall at a much more efficient rate in Game 4, similar to Game 2 when the Heat pulled the upset on the road in Denver.

The Heat are 34-18 SU at home this season while the Nuggets at 24-25 SU on the road.  Miami is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games following a SU loss.  The Heat are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games following an ATS loss.  Miami is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 games when playing on one days' rest.  I trust Spoelstra to make the right adjustments as he has all playoffs.  Bet the Heat in Game 4 Friday.

20* Nuggets/Heat Game 3 No-Brainer on Miami +2.5

The resilient Miami Heat struck again in Game 2.  They came back from double-digits down in the first half and 8 points down entering the 4th quarter to upset the Denver Nuggets 111-108.  They gained home-court advantage with that victory, and now I expect them to protect it at least for Game 3 tonight.

The Heat made a great adjustment by making Nikola Jokic into a scorer.  And when Jokic scores 40-plus points in the playoffs, the Nuggets are 0-3.  So there's something to it.  Making Jokic a scorer instead of a passer keeps everyone else uninvolved and out of sync.  

Jamaal Murray took just 15 shots and nobody else even had double-digit shot attempts while Jokic had 28 and scored 41.  I trust Miami's role players more, who came up clutch in Game 2 with Vincent, Strus and Robinson all having big contributions.  With Jimmy Butler's father struggling with his health, that gives this team even more of a reason to rally around him right now.

The Heat are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games overall.  Miami is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 home games.  Bet the Heat in Game 3 Wednesday.

20* Heat/Nuggets Game 2 No-Brainer on Miami +9.5

The Miami Heat shot 40.6% as a team and attempted only two free throws in Game 1.  Yet they still only lost by 11 points and had a chance to cover the 9-point spread late.  It's safe to say they have a ton of room for improvement.

Jimmy Butler was passive in Game 1 and getting his guys wide open looks all game that they would normally make.  Max Strus and Caleb Martin were particularly bad combining to shoot 1-of-17 for the game.  Butler will be more aggressive in getting to the rim in Game 2, and the shots will start falling.

The Heat have been a resilient team all season and I expect them to bounce back with a big effort in Game 2.  Miami is 27-15 ATS in its last 42 games as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points.  The Heat are 30-17 ATS in their last 47 games when revenging a road loss.  Miami is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 games overall.  Bet the Heat in Game 2 Sunday.

20* Heat/Nuggets Game 1 No-Brainer on Miami +9

Rust will be a factor for the Denver Nuggets in Game 1 tonight.  They have been off since May 22nd and have been getting patted on the back after sweeping the Lakers.  I expect them to be flat and out of sync in Game 1 despite it being the NBA Finals.  That's going to make it very difficult for them to win by double-digits, which is what it's going to take for them to beat us here.

The Miami Heat have beaten the Bucks, Knicks and Celtics to get here yet they continue to get disrespected.  I love that Jimmy Butler didn't even acknowledge winning the Eastern Conference Finals and MVP trophies, telling his teammates there are bigger fish to fry.  His leadership is a big reason the Heat have been able to get this far, and it's a key reason they will give the Nuggets more of a fight than most are anticipating, including in Game 1.

I also like the fact that the Heat got two days off after that Game 7 win over Boston to rest and recover, which is a big deal.  They get two games off in between games a lot this series as well, so they'll be able to recover.  I think they will be the sharper team tonight as well after having just played on May 29th.

Plays on road underdogs (Miami) - revenging a home loss against an opponent that is off a road win by 3 points or less are 32-11 (74.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Miami is 27-14 ATS in its last 41 games as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points.  The Heat are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games overall.  Bet the Heat in Game 1 Thursday.

20* Nuggets/Lakers Game 4 No-Brainer on Los Angeles -3

The Los Angeles Lakers won't go away quietly.  They are 11-2 in their last 13 home games dating back to the regular season.  They are also 7-1 at home in the postseason dating back to the play-in win over the Timberwolves.

Considering the Lakers were 5.5-point home favorites in Game 3 and are now only 3-point home favorites in Game 4, we are getting a discount on them here and the value is there to pull the trigger.  Game 3's home loss was their lone defeat at home in the postseason, and was the abberration.

The Nuggets shot 50% as a team in Game 3 and 17-of-41 (41.5%) from 3-point range and committed only five turnovers..  I have a hard time believing they are going to shoot that well again, or take care of the ball that well.  Look for them to relax a little after taking a commanding 3-0 lead knowing they got two more home games to finish off the Lakers if need be.

Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LA Lakers) - revenging a same-season loss vs. opponent that's off an upset win by 10 points or more as a road underdog are 37-10 (78.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Denver is 9-18 ATS following three or more consecutive wins this season.  Los Angeles is a perfect 7-0 ATS in its last seven games following a loss by more than 10 points.  Bet the Lakers in Game 4 Monday.

20* Celtics/Heat Game 3 No-Brainer on Boston -3

The Boston Celtics have come up with clutch road wins in the playoffs when they have needed them over the past couple seasons.  They staved off elimination with a win in Game 6 at Milwaukee in the Eastern Conference Finals last year.  Last series, they staved off elimination with a 95-86 win at Philadelphia in Game 6 to force a Game 7.

This is essentially a must-win for the Celtics after losing the first two games of this series to the Heat at home.  I think we get their best effort here as a result, and it will be good enough to cover this 3-point spread.  They are still the better team in this series and that will show tonight.

Miami is 13-27 ATS following an ATS win this season.  Boston is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 games following two consecutive upset losses as a favorite.  The Celtics are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS loss.  Boston is 4-1 ATS In its last five trips to Miami.  Bet the Celtics in Game 3 Sunday.

25* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Los Angeles Lakers -3.5

Note: I locked this in at -3.5 as soon as the line came out.  I would still play it up to -5.5.

The Los Angeles Lakers won't go down without a fight and showed that in the first two games of this series.  They lost by 6 points in Game 1 despite the Nuggets shooting 54.9% as a team and 46.9% from 3.  They lost by 5 in Game 2 despite shooting just 8-of-30 (26.7%) from 3 themselves while the Nuggets made six more 3-pointers than them and Jamal Murray going off in the 4th quarter.

Now the Lakers are back home where they are 7-0 in the postseason dating back to the play-in win over the Timberwolves.  The Lakers are 11-1 SU in their last 12 home games dating back to the regular season.  They have a huge home-court advantage.  The Nuggets have been vulnerable on the road going 1-3 SU in their last four playoff road games.  They have a losing record (21-25) on the season away from home.

Denver is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 road games following two or more consecutive wins.  The Lakers are 5-0 ATS in their last five playoff games following a loss, covering the spread by 17.2 points per game.  Los Angeles is 8-1 ATS in home games when playing against a good team (60% to 70%) this season . The Lakers are 10-1 ATS in home games vs. good teams outscoring their opponents by 3-plus points per game in the 2nd half of the season over the last two seasons.  Los Angeles is 5-1 ATS in its last six home meetings with Denver.  The home team has won all six meetings between the Nuggets and Lakers this season all by 5 points or more.  Bet the Lakers in Game 3 Saturday.

20* Heat/Celtics Game 2 No-Brainer on Boston -8.5

The Boston Celtics were flat in Game 1 after winning Game 7 against the Philadelphia 76ers last series.  I cashed the Heat +8.5 anticipating that would be the case.  But I expect the Celtics to fire back with a blowout victory in Game 2 at home.

The Heat shot 54.1% as a team and 16-of-31 (51.6%) from 3-point range in Game 1.  That's not going to happen again.  The Heat will be the team relaxing a little here after gaining home-court advantage and won't be playing with the same sense of urgency that they did in Game 1.

Boston is 19-9 ATS off an upset win as a home favorite this season.  The Heat are 12-27 ATS following an ATS win this season.  Teams down 0-1 in a series at home are now 23-1 SU & 22-2 ATS since 2019.  This has been a very profitable system and it makes 100% sense.  Bet the Celtics in Game 2 Friday.

20* Lakers/Nuggets Game 2 No-Brainer on Los Angeles +6.5

The Los Angeles Lakers trailed by 20-plus points against the Nuggets but still had a chance to tie Game 1 late a couple times.  They wound up losing by 6.  The adjustments they made in the 2nd half are something that can work to their advantage the rest of this series, including in Game 2.

The Lakers switched Rui Hachimura onto Nikola Jokic and he did a great job staying in front of him.  That allowed Anthony Davis to roam around and be a stopper inside.  The weak link of the Nuggets is Aaron Gordon from 3-point range, so the Lakers can let Davis guard Gordon so he can roam and make him try to beat them.

The fact that the Nuggets shot 54.9% from the field and 15-of-32 (46.9%) from 3-point range in Game 1 and still only won by 6 is a good sign for the Lakers moving forward.  They aren't likely to shoot that well again the rest of the series.

The Lakers are 22-12 ATS when revenging a loss this season.  Denver is 8-17 ATS following three or more consecutive wins this season.  Los Angeles is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 games following a loss.  Bet the Lakers Thursday.

20* Heat/Celtics Game 1 No-Brainer on Miami +8.5

The Miami Heat have been counted out the entire playoffs, and they are being counted out again in this series.  Expect them to play with a chip on their shoulder in Game 1 of this series with the Celtics, who they beat in each of their final two regular season, including once on the road as 7-point dogs.

I expect the Celtics to take a breather after winning Game 7 against the 76ers last series.  They will come out flat in Game 1.  They were flat in practice and I don't expect them to turn it on for Game 1.  The Heat also have a nice rest advantage last playing on May 12th while the Celtics last played on May 14th.

Miami is 24-13 ATS in its last 37 games as a road dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points.  Boston is 0-9 ATS in home games when revenging a road loss this season.  The Heat are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall.  Miami is 13-5 ATS in its last 18 trips to Boston.  Bet the Heat in Game 1 Wednesday.

20* Lakers/Nuggets Game 1 No-Brainer on Los Angeles +6

The Los Angeles Lakers have made a statement in Game 1 in each of their first two series this season.  They went on the road and beat Memphis 128-112 as a 5-point underdog.  They went on the road and beat Golden State 117-112 as a 4.5-point dog as well.

I think it will be more of the same here in Game 1 at Denver.  LeBron James knows the importance of winning Game 1 of a series.  The Lakers will be 'all in' to get the job done, and at the very least I think it will be good enough to cover this 6-point spread.

The Lakers have proven themselves more than the Nuggets have in these playoffs.  They were underdogs in both of their series against Memphis and Golden State, the defending champs.  They disposed of both in six games.  The Nuggets got to play the Timberwolves and a depleted Suns team with no depth and needed six games to get past them.

The Lakers have remained healthy all postseason which has been their key, and are healthy coming into this one.  The Nuggets are also healthy outside Jamal Murray, who is a non-covid related illness coming into Game 1 and is questionable.  Denver is 6-18 ATS following two consecutive wins by 10 points or more over the last three seasons.  Bet the Lakers in Game 1 Tuesday.

15* Knicks/Heat ESPN ANNIHILATOR on New York +6.5

Jalen Brunson refused to let his team lose in Game 5 as the Knicks avoided elimination with a 112-103 victory behind 38 points from Brunson, 26 from Barrett and 24 from Randle.  Brunson and company won't go down without a fight in Game 6, either.

The Miami Heat were counted out and it's impressive they have gotten to this point despite being an underdog in eight of their 10 playoff games thus far.  But now they are getting too much respect as 6.5-point favorites in Game 6.  They were only 4 and 4.5-point favorites against the Knicks in their first two home games in this series.  The value is clearly with the road underdog here.

The Knicks are 38-18-1 ATS in their last 57 road games.  Bet the Knicks in Game 6 Friday.

20* 76ers/Celtics TNT No-Brainer on Boston -7.5

The Boston Celtics bounced back from an upset loss in Game 1 where James Harden went off for the 76ers with a 121-87 home victory in Game 2.  After Harden went off in Game 4, I don't trust him to put together two consecutive monster games as he rarely does.

The 76ers need him to because Joel Embiid is clearly hobbled with that knee injury and not himself.  Al Horford owned in him the 4th quarter and OT of Game 4, which isn't something that would happen if Embiid was healthy.  That puts a lot of Harden and company, especially going on the road here in a hostile environment in Game 5 against a pissed of Celtics team.

The Celtics are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six games following a loss.  Boston is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games following an ATS loss.  The Celtics are 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  We get a big effort from the Celtics in Game 5 tonight that should have them covering this 7.5-point spread.  Bet the Celtics Tuesday.

20* Knicks/Heat TNT No-Brainer on New York +4.5

It's a good time to 'buy low' on the New York Knicks in Game 4 tonight.  They have failed to cover the spread in every game in this series and are coming off a 19-point loss in Game 3 in which they shot 34.1% as a team and 8-of-40 (20%) from 3-point range.  They aren't going to shoot even close to that poorly again in Game 4.

Jalen Brunson is the leader of this team and had a big Game 2 after an inspirational speech to his team after a Game 1 loss.  He showed how good he could be in the playoffs last year with the Mavericks, and he is one of the most underrated players in the league.  Look for Brunson to respond with a huge Game 4 to lead the way for the Knicks in a game I think they win outright to even this series, but we'll take the 4.5 points for some insurance.

Brunson had 30, Randle 25 and Barrett 24 in the Game 2 response.  Look for this trio to lead the way in Game 4.  The Heat don't have three players that can match these three as it's Butler, Adebayo and a bunch of role players that have played well to get them to this point.  I'm just not sure it's sustainable the rest of the way, including in Game 4 tonight.

The Knicks are a perfect 7-0 ATS after scoring 100 points or less this season, bouncing back to win by an average of 11.2 points per game in this spot.  New York is 38-17-1 ATS in its last 56 road games.  Bet the Knicks in Game 4 Monday.

15* Nuggets/Suns TNT ANNIHILATOR on Phoenix -2.5

Devin Booker and Kevin Durant scored 86 points combined to lead the Suns to a critical Game 3 victory.  They are two of the best players in the NBA and are capable of doing it again.  Plus, they had others step up around them and that will continue at home tonight.

Cameron Payne pushes the tempo more than Chris Paul and got them a lot of easy looks with his six assists.  Jack Landale was huge off the bench and actually played better than DeAndre Ayton, and it would be a bonus if the Suns could get anything from Ayton.  TJ Warren hit two huge shots late to help them seal the victory.  But either way, Booker and Durant are good enough to carry this team to victory again.

Phoenix is 31-14 at home while Denver is just 20-24 on the road.  The Suns were 4-point home favorites in Game 3 and now we are getting them at a discount in comparison as only 2.5-point home favorites in Game 4.  We'll take the value and back them to get the job done in Game 4.

Denver is 6-18 ATS in its last 24 road games when revenging a road loss.  Bet the Suns in Game 4 Sunday.

20* Celtics/76ers ESPN No-Brainer on Philadelphia +2.5

This is a must-win for the 76ers in Game 4 if they want to get back in this series.  With how good their home-court advantage is, I expect them to get the job done and to avoid losing three in a row to the Celtics after upsetting them in Game 1.

The 76ers are 31-13 SU & 27-17 ATS at home this season.  They only shot 39.7% as a team in Game 3 and I can't see them shooting that poorly again.  They also shot just 39.2% on the road in Game 2 after shooting 50.6% in Game 1.  Look for them to get back to closer to that 50% mark in this one.

Philadelphia is 22-10 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season.  The 76ers are 17-7 ATS when revenging a loss this season.  Philadelphia is 15-5-1 ATS in its last 21 games following a double-digit home loss.  Bet the 76ers in Game 4 Sunday.

25* NBA 2nd Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Los Angeles Lakers -2.5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Los Angeles Lakers after getting blown out in Game 2 at Golden State.  We saw them relax in Round 1 upsetting the Grizzlies in Game 1 before losing by double-digits in Game 2.  They came back and beat Memphis by double-digits at home in Game 3, and it will be more of the same here against the Warriors.

Golden State is one of the worst road teams in the NBA let alone in the playoffs.  The Warriors are 13-32 SU & 15-30 ATS on the road this season.  The Lakers are 9-1 SU in their last 10 home games and have won all four playoff home games by 6 points or more.

The Lakers are 25-9 ATS in their last 34 playoff games when the series is tied.  The Warriors are 17-36-1 ATS in their last 54 road games.  Golden State is 0-4 ATS in its last four games following an ATS win.  The Warriors have made 42 3-pointers in two games in this series and won't be nearly as effective shooting the 3 on the road here.  Bet the Lakers in Game 3 Saturday.

15* Knicks/Heat ABC ANNIHILATOR on New York +4

The New York Knicks have failed to cover the spread in each of their first two games in this series against the Miami Heat.  It's now time to 'buy low' on the Knicks as 4-point dogs in Game 3.  They were 4-point favorites in Game 1 and 9-point favorites in Game 2, so this is a massive adjustment.

Jimmy Butler is expected to return today, but he's still going to be a little hobbled with that ankle injury.  And I believe the Knicks are the better team even with a healthy Butler, so getting 4 points with them is a nice value.

The Heat shot the 3 terribly all season and have just gotten hot from 3 in the playoffs to get to this point.  I don't see it lasting, and this team still has a lot of flaws outside of Butler.  He has way too much on his shoulders to carry this team much further.

The Knicks are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games after outrebounding their last opponent by 15-plus boards.  New York is 38-16-1 ATS in its last 55 road games and has been one of the best road teams in the NBA this season.  The Heat are 11-28-1 ATS in their last 40 games following an ATS win.  Bet the Knicks Saturday.

20* Nuggets/Suns ESPN No-Brainer on Phoenix -3.5

The Phoenix Suns are in must-win mode in Game 3 tonight after losing the first two games of this series to the Denver Nuggets.  I expect them to bounce back in a big way at home to get back into this series.

The Suns are 30-14 at home this season while the Nuggets are 20-23 SU & 19-22-2 ATS on the road.  I think the Nuggets relax a bit after retaining home-court advantage, including a 4th quarter comeback win in Game 2.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 6-0 SU in the last six meetings.  The Suns are 3-0 SU in their last three home meetings with the Nuggets winning by 4, 7 and 29 points.

Denver is 4-12 ATS in road games following two or more consecutive wins this season.  The Nuggets are 6-17 ATS in their last 23 games following two consecutive wins by 10 points or more.  Phoenix is 13-4 ATS in home games after playing a road game this season.  The Suns are 21-10 ATS in their last 31 games as a home favorite of 6 points or less.  Bet the Suns in Game 3 Friday.

15* Celtics/76ers ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Philadelphia +2.5

After getting embarrassed with an 87-121 loss at Boston in Game 2, we'll 'buy low' on the Philadelphia 76ers in Game 3 as home underdogs.  They will respond in a big way tonight, especially with Joel Embiid in his second game back from injury.  He will be much more effective at home tonight, and James Harden should bounce back as well.

After making 17 3-pointers in Game 1's upset victory, the 76ers went just 6-of-30 (20%) in Game 2.  They aren't going to shoot that poorly again.  Also don't expect the Celtics to make 20 3-pointers again like they did in Game 2.

The 76ers have played the Celtics tough at home in their two meetings this season.  They lost by 3 as 1-point dogs and won outright as 3.5-point dogs.  The 76ers are 31-12 SU & 27-16 ATS at home this season and have one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA.  Philadelphia is 12-2 ATS when revenging a road loss this season.  The 76ers are 26-12 ATS in their last 38 home games.  Bet the 76ers in Game 3 Friday.

20* Lakers/Warriors TNT No-Brainer on Los Angeles +4.5

I like fading teams in Game 1 of their next series after winning a Game 7 the series prior.  A 7-game series takes a lot out of a team, and it especially took a lot out of the Warriors having to play the up-tempo Kings.  The Warriors lack depth this season, which is a big reason they aren't as good as they have been in previous seasons.

The Warriors have only had one day off to recover from that seven-game series and will be playing their 4th game in 7 days.  Meanwhile, the Lakers have had the last three days off and will be rested and ready to go for this series.  That's a huge rest advantage heading into Game 1, and I fully expect the Lakers to pull off the upset tonight because of it.

The Lakers have shown what they are capable of when healthy since the All-Star Break.  They are 22-9 SU in their last 31 games overall.  They won Game 1 on the road against Memphis 128-112 as 5-point dogs.  The Lakers are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three meetings with the Warriors this season winning outright by 8 as 5-point home dogs, by 13 as 6-point home favorites and outright by 6 as 5.5-point road dogs.  Bet the Lakers in Game 1 Tuesday.

20* Suns/Nuggets TNT No-Brainer on Phoenix +4.5

Kevin Durant is 25-3 in his last 28 games in which he has played dating back to Thanksgiving.  I liked what I heard from him in the press conference after a bad Game 1 loss to the Nuggets.  I fully expect Durant and the Suns to bounce back, and getting them as 4.5-point underdogs in Game 2 is a tremendous value.

While the Suns will fire back with a better effort, the Nuggets could relax a little after winning Game 1 so convincingly.  I have a hard time seeing Jamal Murray playing as well as he did again, and for the Nuggets to make nine more 3-pointers than the Suns again.

Denver is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 home games after two straight games allowing a shooting percentage of 50% or higher.  Phoenix is 28-14 ATS in its last 42 games when revenging a loss by 10 points or more.  Phoenix is 5-2 ATS in its last seven trips to Denver.  We may never get the opportunity to back the Suns as this big of an underdog again, so we'll take advantage.  Bet the Suns in Game 2 Monday.

20* Warriors/Kings ABC No-Brainer on Sacramento +1.5

Although this series is tied 3-3, it's clear to me that the Sacramento Kings have been the better team in this series.  Their resiliency in Game 6 winning blowing out the Warriors 118-99 as 7-point road underdogs says all you need to know about the mental state of this team.

The Kings made all the right adjustments in Game 6 and really showed what they were capable of defensively limiting the Warriors to fewer than 100 points.  Nothing came easy for the Warriors, while a lot came easy for the Kings, including getting out in transition.  They will push the pace again, and they will come up with another great defensive effort at home to win this series in Game 7.

The Warriors have many shortcomings this season that have come to fruition in the playoffs, most notably they aren't a very good defensive team.  Curry, Poole and Thompson are all bad defenders, and the Kings have been exploiting them all series.  The Warriors aren't comfortable playing Poole for big minutes because of his liabilities on defense, but they lose a lot without him on the court offensively.  They are just getting a lot of credit due to their reputation in the past, but this isn't the same old Warriors.  These aren't the same old Kings either as they won the most stacked division in the NBA and it was no fluke.

The Warriors are 12-32 SU & 14-30 ATS on the road this season.  Sacramento is 10-1 ATS after losing three of its last four games this season.  The Warriors are 16-36-1 ATS in their last 53 road games overall.  Sacramento is 17-7 ATS in the last 24 meetings.  Bet the Kings in Game 7 Sunday.

20* Suns/Nuggets TNT No-Brainer on Phoenix +3.5

It's rare that you're going to get the opportunity to back the Phoenix Suns as an underdog the rest of the way.  We'll take advantage in Game 1 and back a Suns team that is currently the second-favorite to win the NBA title due to all the talent they have on hand.

Kevin Durant is now 25-2 in the last 27 games he has played dating back to Thanksgiving.  The Suns are really forming chemistry with Durant, Booker, Ayton and Paul and their starting five is the best in the NBA.  They do have some depth concerns, but they are rested after having the last three days off and are primed for a big effort in Game 1.

The Timberwolves took the Nuggets to the wire in each of the final four games last series.  The Nuggets have too many holes defensively as Jokic, Porter Jr. and Murray are not known for defense.  That is going to really hurt them in this series, starting with Game 1.  The Suns have more experience in these big game situations as the Nuggets continue to be a disappointment in the playoffs.  Bet the Suns in Game 1 Saturday.

20* Grizzlies/Lakers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -4.5

The Memphis Grizzlies are 0-24 SU in their last 24 games as road underdogs.  That includes 0-18 SU & 2-16 ATS as road underdogs this season.  The Grizzlies are 1-15 ATS as a road underdog of 6 points or less this season as well.

LeBron James took Game 5 off and saved up for Game 6.  Now expect a big effort from James and company in Game 6 at home tonight to close out this series.  The Grizzlies haven't had an answer on the road all season against good teams, including in this series.  It will be a tremendous atmosphere in Los Angeles Friday night and a tremendous advantage for the Lakers laying this short number.

JA Morant is battling wrist, ankle and knee injuries right now.  Luke Kennard just suffered a shoulder injury in Game 5 and likely will miss Game 6, leaving the Grizzlies short on outside shooting.  The Lakers are fully healthy and showing what they are capable of when that's the case with the way they closed out  the regular season just to make the playoffs, plus how they have played in the playoffs to this point.  It continues with another big effort tonight.  Bet the Lakers in Game 6 Friday.

20* Kings/Warriors ESPN No-Brainer on Sacramento +7.5

Four of the five games in this series went down to the wire decided by 8 points or fewer.  The lone exception was Game 3 in a must-win for the Warriors after losing the first two games in Sacramento.  I think Game 6 goes to the wire as well, so there's clear value here catching 7.5 points with the Kings.

Sacramento is 9-1 ATS in road games when playing with triple revenge over the last two seasons.  The Kings are 8-1 ATS in road games when revenging a same-season loss this season.  Sacramento is 35-17-1 ATS in its last 53 road games.  The Kings are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 trips to Golden State.  Bet the Kings in Game 6 Friday.

15* Knicks/Cavaliers NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on Cleveland -5.5

I'll gladly back the more motivated Cleveland Cavaliers with their backs against the wall tonight against a New York Knicks team that can relax a little after taking a 3-1 series lead by winning both games at home.  This game will play out similarly to Game 2 when the Cavaliers bounced back from an upset home loss in Game 1 with a 107-90 blowout in a game that was never competitive.

Cleveland has one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA as they are 32-11 at home this season.  The Cavaliers are 9-1 ATS in home games after failing to cover the spread in four or five of their last six games this season.  Bet the Cavaliers in Game 5 Wednesday.

15* NBA PLAY OF THE DAY on Minnesota Timberwolves +10

The close out game is always the hardest, especially for a team like the Denver Nuggets that has been a disappointment in the playoffs for years under Nikola Jokic.  They failed to close out the Timberwolves in Game 4 and lost in OT, giving Minnesota new life.

I think the Timberwolves are a dangerous team now playing on house money catching 10 points against the Nuggets in Game 5.  They have been competitive in each of the last three games, which have all been decided by 9 points or less.  Game 1 can pretty much be thrown out because it was a terrible spot for the Timberwolves coming off a pair of play-in games and on little rest.

The Timberwolves are 24-9 ATS in their last 33 meetings in Denver.  The Nuggets are 21-35 ATS in their last 56 home games after playing a road game.  Bet the Timberwolves in Game 5 Tuesday.

20* Grizzlies/Lakers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -4

The Los Angeles Lakers are simply the better team in this series.  They are fully healthy and showing what they are capable of when that's the case.  They are now 12-3 SU In their last 15 games overall and came up clutch just trying to make the playoffs, and that has carried over into the postseason.

The Grizzlies are missing key players in Steven Adams and Brandon Clark, which really hurts them defensively.  Dillon Brooks is a mad man whose head isn't in this series, and he's more concerned with his antics.  And JA Morant suffered a wrist injury in Game 1 that he's playing through, plus another injury in the final seconds of Game 3 to his lower leg that could hamper him heading into Game 4.

I think it says everything that Morant had 45 points in Game 3 and the Grizzlies were still never in that game or competitive.  They trailed 38-9 to start the game and most of his points came in garbage time with the game pretty much decided.  The Grizzlies don't have very good depth off the bench, while this is some of the best depth LeBron has ever had.  The Lakers actually increased their lead in Game 3 when he went to the bench.  Guys like Reaves, Hachimura, Russell, Schroder and Vanderbilt are playing very well to compliment LeBron and AD.

Memphis is 0-17 SU & 2-15 ATS as a road underdog this season, including 1-14 ATS as a road underdog of 6 points or less.  We'll continue fading the Grizzlies as road underdogs here as they have been a terrible team away from home all season, and I don't expect that to change in Game 4.  Bet the Lakers in Game 4 Monday.

25* NBA 1st Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Los Angeles Lakers -4.5

After winning Game 1 128-112 on the road, the Lakers relaxed in Game 2, especially with the Grizzlies without JA Morant due to a wrist injury.  They won't make the same mistake in Game 3, and I look for them to fire back with a blowout home victory in this one.

Dillon Brooks called LeBron James old after the Game 2 win.  You know LeBron won't take that lightly and will be fully locked in to make a statement, and his teammates will have his back.  The Lakers' role players have played well in this series, and I expect them to play even better at home to support LeBron and AD.

The Lakers are now 11-3 SU in their last 14 games overall coming up clutch just to try and get into the playoffs.  They are showing how good they can be when healthy, which they are right now.  The Grizzlies are missing up to three key players if Morant doesn't return.  They aren't good enough to hang with the Lakers in this series given their current state, and especially not a 100% motivated Lakers team, which will be the case in Game 3 tonight.

Memphis is 2-14 ATS as a road underdog this season, including 1-13 ATS as a road underdog of 6 points or less.  Memphis is 1-9 ATS in road games vs. good shooting teams making 48% or better this season.  The Grizzlies are just 16-25 SU on the road this season and have not played well at all away from home.  The Lakers have won six of their last seven at home.  Bet the Lakers in Game 3 Saturday.

20* Nuggets/Timberwolves ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Minnesota +2.5

It's now or never for the Minnesota Timberwolves after falling down 0-2 in this series to the Denver Nuggets.  I expect them to fire back in Game 3 here at home.  The Timberwolves have played three of their last four playoff games on the road and were competitive in two of them, taking the Lakers to OT in the play-in game and the Nuggets to the wire in Game 2.

But now the Timberwolves at back home where they were much more comfortable.  In their lone playoff home game, the Timberwolves crushed the upstart Thunder 120-95 as 5.5-point favorites.  I think they are getting disrespected here as home underdogs to the Nuggets and will make a statement.

Denver is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 road games following two or more consecutive wins.  Minnesota is 31-16 ATS in its last 47 games when revenging a road loss.  Bet the Timberwolves in Game 3 Friday.

20* Suns/Clippers NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on Phoenix -2.5

The Phoenix Suns are by far the superior team over the Los Angeles Clippers.  They have four stars in Durant, Booker, Ayton and Paul compared to one for the Clippers in Kawhi Leonard, who is having to shoulder too much of the load for them.  They are relying on several guys past their primes including Eric Gordon and Russell Westbrook.

Leonard had 31 points in Game 2 and the Clippers still lost by 14.  I think we are getting the Suns very cheap here as only 2.5-point favorites in Game 3.  Kevin Durant is 22-2 SU in his last 24 games dating back to Thanksgiving.  The Suns are finally forming chemistry with him and will be a dangerous team moving forward.

The Clippers are 1-8 ATS in home games off a road loss this season.  Los Angeles is 4-15 ATS when revenging a loss by 10 points or more this season.  The Suns are 5-1 ATS in their last six trips to Los Angeles.  The Clippers only went 23-18 at home this season and don't have that big of a home-court advantage.  Bet the Suns in Game 3 Thursday.

20* Clippers/Suns TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Phoenix -7.5

That was a rare loss for Kevin Durant in Game 1.  Durant is 21-2 in his last 23 games dating back to Thanksgiving.  I fully expect the Suns to bounce back with a blowout victory in Game 2 after getting upset by the Clippers in Game 1 of this series.

A lot of times in the playoffs you see a team pull off the upset on the road in Game 1 and then let down in Game 2.  The home team comes back more motivated and wins in a blowout to tie the series.  I believe that's what we see here as the Suns are clearly the better team in this series.

The Suns only made six 3-pointers in Game 1.  You can expect them to make double-digits from 3 in Game 2 which will be a big difference in the result.  The Clippers remain without Paul George and I think that puts too much of a burden on Kawhi Leonard.  The Suns were dominant with Durant prior to that Game 1 loss.

Plays on any team (Phoenix) - revenging a loss as a home favorite of 7 points or more, off an upset loss as a home favorite are 43-12 (78.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (LA Clippers) - in the 2nd game of a playoff series are 24-5 (82.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Suns in Game 2 Tuesday.

20* Knicks/Cavs TNT No-Brainer on Cleveland -5

The Cleveland Cavaliers got dominated on the boards in Game 1 which was their demise.  They lost the rebounding battle 51-38 and gave up 17 offensive rebounds.  The Cavaliers are a great rebounding team on the season, so don't expect that to happen again.

I expect the Cavaliers to bounce back with a blowout home victory in Game 2 tonight.  A lot of times in the playoffs you see a team pull off the upset on the road in Game 1 and then let down in Game 2.  The home team comes back the more motivated team and wins in a blowout to tie the series.  I believe that's what we see here as the Cavaliers are clearly the better team in this series.

Cleveland is 8-1 ATS in home games after failing to cover the spread in four or five of their last six games this season.  Plays against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (New York) - in the 2nd game of a playoff series are 24-5 (82.8%) ATS over the last five season.  Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Cleveland) - off two or more consecutive home losses in April games are 43-17 (71.7%) ATS since 1996.  Bet the Cavaliers in Game 2 Tuesday.

15* Nets/76ers TNT ANNIHILATOR on Brooklyn +10.5

The Philadelphia 76ers made 21 3-pointers and had a 19-8 advantage in turnovers in Game 1 over the Brooklyn Nets to win by 20.  A lot went right for them in that game, and I don't expect it to be nearly as easy for them in Game 2.  I expect the Nets to take this game to the wire tonight.

The Nets are 144-97 ATS in their last 241 road games when revenging a loss.  Brooklyn is 14-6 ATS when revenging a road loss this season.  The Nets are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games after a blowout loss by 15 points or more.  Bet the Nets in Game 2 Monday.

20* Clippers/Suns TNT No-Brainer on Phoenix -7.5

The Phoenix Suns showed what they were capable of down the stretch when fully healthy and trying to clinch a spot in the playoffs.  They went 7-0 SU & 5-2 ATS for a stretch with four wins by double-digits.  Kevin Durant is now 21-1 SU in his last 22 games played.

This would have been a great series if Paul George was healthy.  Instead, there's too much on Kawhi Leonard's shoulders now, and while he is a great player he isn't good enough to beat the Suns on his own.  He is going to be trusting too much in Russell Westbrook and Eric Gordon, two veterans on the downside of their careers.  Westbrook has been a cancer everywhere he has gone.

I think Durant is the better player than Leonard, plus Booker and Ayton are both better than anything the Clippers have. They won't be able to match up with Booker on the perimeter or Ayton inside as the Clippers are very weak in the paint with Zubac handling most the minutes.

The Clippers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following a win.  The Suns are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games when playing on three or more days' rest.  The Suns are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  This rest is exactly what the doctor ordered for the Suns as they are now ready to make their playoff run as likely the best team in the West as currently constructed.  Bet the Suns in Game 1 Sunday.

20* Warriors/Kings ABC Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento PK

The Sacramento Kings will be making their first playoff appearance since 2006.  It's safe to say it's going to be a tremendous atmosphere for Game 1 of this series with fans ready to let out years of frustration in support of this team.

Mike Brown is the coach of the year leading the Kings to a 48-34 record this season and the 3rd seed in the West.  They have stayed remarkably healthy all season and are one of the deepest teams in the NBA.  I think they have a huge advantage over the Warriors when the backups are in as the Warriors lack the depth of years' past when they made NBA Finals runs.

Most just expect the Warriors to flip on the switch, but it's not that easy.  Andrew Wiggins returns but is going to be rusty after missing the past 25 games.  And the Warriors have been one of the worst road teams in the NBA all season, going 11-30 SU & 13-28 ATS on the highway.

Sacramento is 12-1 ATS after failing to cover the spread in two or more consecutive games this season.  Golden State is 16-34-1 ATS in its last 51 road games.  The Kings are 13-5 ATS in the last 18 meetings.  Bet the Kings Saturday.

15* Hawks/Celtics ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Atlanta +9.5

The Atlanta Hawks have come up clutch here down the stretch with these games mattering most.  They have gone 4-1 SU in games in which they were actually trying and not resting starters, including their dominant 116-105 win at Miami as 5.5-point underdogs in the Play-In to punch their ticket into the playoffs.

The Hawks are brimming with confidence now and ready to give the Celtics a run for their money in Game 1 of this series today.  The Celtics are getting a lot of love after making the NBA Finals last year.  But they kind of snuck up on everyone in the playoffs last year, and now they are the hunted instead of the hunters.  Asking them to win by double-digits in Game 1 to beat us is asking too much.  

The Hawks are actually more battle-tested and ready after playing a meaningful game earlier this week.  Boston hasn't played a meaningful game since April 4th and could be rusty to open this series as a result.  Bet the Hawks Saturday.

20* Thunder/Timberwolves ESPN No-Brainer on Oklahoma City +5.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder are brimming with confidence after upsetting the Pelicans 123-118 on the road last game.  The Minnesota Timberwolves are questioning themselves after blowing a double-digit lead and scoring just 16 points in the final 16 minutes in an OT loss to the Lakers.

The Timberwolves are also dealing with the Rudy Gobert distractions and some significant injuries heading into this one.  I think 5.5 points is too many for them to be laying against this up-and-coming Thunder team that has been consistently undervalued for two straight seasons and one that just has a knack for playing in close games.

The Thunder are 11-1 ATS when revenging a close loss by 3 points or less over the last two seasons.  The Timberwolves are 2-7 ATS in their last nine home games.  Oklahoma City is 6-1 ATS in its last seven trips to Minnesota.  Bet the Thunder Friday.

20* Bulls/Heat TNT No-Brainer on Chicago +5.5

The Chicago Bulls come into this game with a ton of confidence after coming back from 19 points down to beat the Raptors last game.  I think they are once again catching too many points against the Miami Heat tonight after the Heat are questioning themselves after getting upset 105-116 at home by the Hawks in a game they were never really in.

Adding to the Bulls' confidence is the fact that they are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their three meetings with the Heat this season with three outright upset victories as underdogs.  It should be more of the same here as I expect them to win this game outright, but we'll take the points for some insurance.

The Heat are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games following a loss by more than 10 points.  Chicago is 14-5 ATS off an upset win as an underdog this season.  Miami is 9-22 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.  Bet the Bulls Friday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on New Orleans Pelicans +4

The Pelicans came up clutch last year late in the season and in the play-in before giving the Suns a run for their money.  That experience is paying off this year as the Pelicans are 9-2 SU & 8-2- ATS in their last 11 games overall and coming up clutch again.

Now the Pelicans have a lot to play for here to try and either move up in the play-in and possibly get a Top 5 seed if everything breaks their way, or at the very least lock in a Top 8 spot with a win over the Timberwolves here.  I trust them much more than the Timberwolves, who are still trying to form some chemistry with all the new pieces.

Minnesota will also be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back here after a 151-131 shootout win in San Antonio last night.  That puts them at a big disadvantage, and I love the value we are getting on the Pelicans as underdogs here after having yesterday off and with all that big game experience gained over the past couple seasons.

The Pelicans are 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight games when playing on one days' rest.  The Timberwolves are 1-7 ATS in their last eight home games.  Minnesota is 0-6 ATS in its last six home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  New Orleans is 5-1 ATS in its last six trips to Minnesota.  Bet the Pelicans Sunday.  

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Pistons +7.5

The Detroit Pistons have already locked up the worst record in the NBA and optimal odds to get the 1st pick in the draft.  They are no longer tanking to close out the season and trying to win these final couple games.  They pulled the 122-115 upset at Indiana as 6.5-point dogs last game, and I think they have a great shot to pull the upset as 7.5-point road dogs at Chicago today.

The Bulls have nothing to play for and are locked into the 10th seed.  They will be in the play-in round against the Raptors.  They are unlikely to play starters today as a result, and could care less about winning this game.  They should not be this big of favorites when they are unmotivated and just trying to get healthy going into the playoffs.

Chicago is 1-8 ATS in home games following two consecutive home games this season.  Bet the Pistons Sunday.

15* NBA Friday Night BLOWOUT on New Orleans Pelicans -8

The New York Knicks are locked into the 5th seed in the East and will play the Cleveland Cavaliers in the first round of the playoffs.  They could care less about winning these last two games.  Their three best players will sit tonight in Julius Randle, Jalen Brunson and RJ Barrett.  They won't be competitive as a result.

The New Orleans Pelicans have a lot to play for still trying to get a Top 8 seed in the Western Conference.  They are tied with the Lakers for 7th, one game back of both the Warriors and Clippers, and one game ahead of the Timberwolves.

The Pelicans came up clutch last year late in the season and in the play-in before giving the Suns a run for their money.  That experience is paying off this year as the Pelicans are 8-2 SU & 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall and coming up clutch again.  Now they will make easy work of the short-handed, unmotivated Knicks tonight.

New Orleans is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games when playing on one days' rest.  Bet the Pelicans Friday.

20* Heat/76ers TNT No-Brainer on Miami +3.5

The Miami Heat are still playing to try to avoid the play-in round or at the very least earn the 7th seed which will give them the advantage in the play-in round. They are 1.5 games behind the Nets for 6th and 1.5 games ahead of the Hawks for 7th.

While this game means something to the Heat, it means absolutely nothing to the 76ers. They are locked into the 3rd seed in the East. Don't be surprised if they rest their starters over the final three games as a result. At the very least, they won't be motivated to win these games.

Miami is 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last four meetings with Philadelphia winning its last two trips to Philly outright as underdogs. Bet the Heat Thursday.

15* NBA Western Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on New Orleans Pelicans -3.5

The New Orleans Pelicans came up clutch last season just to make the playoffs and then gave the Phoenix Suns a run for their money in the playoffs. They are coming up clutch again this season, and that experience from last season is really helping them.

The Pelicans are playing their best basketball of the season right now going 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall with all seven wins by 8 points or more and six of them by double-digits. Their lone loss came on the 2nd of a back-to-back at Golden State where they blew a 17-point halftime lead and ran out of gas.

The Sacramento Kings are starting to feel the pressure of trying to win the Pacific Division. They are also just kind of going through the motions right now essentially locked into the 3rd seed in the West. They just lost outright at home to the Spurs are 16-point favorites. This young team is not used to the pressure of playoff basketball and will not handle it as well as the Pelicans will tonight.

The Pelicans are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four meetings with the Kings with all three wins in blowouts by 32, 14 and 30 points. New Orleans is 14-2 ATS vs. terrible defensive teams that allow 48% or higher this season. Bet the Pelicans Tuesday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Chicago Bulls -3.5

The Chicago Bulls have saved their best basketball for last coming up clutch to not only make the playoffs, but to also try and improve their seeding. Now they have a chance to change spots with the Atlanta Hawks and move up again, and I think they take advantage with a blowout victory at home.

The Bulls are 9-4 SU & 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games overall. They are coming off a pair of blowout wins by 30 at Charlotte and by 21 at home over Memphis. They have won two of their three meetings with the Hawks with their lone loss coming by a single point at the buzzer.

The Hawks have been trading wins and losses and are 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a win. They are without De'Andre Hunter (15.4 PPG) and Trae Young (26.2 PPG, 9.9 APG) tonight.

The Hawks are 0-8 ATS in their last eight road games when revenging a loss by 10 points or more. The Bulls are 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. The Hawks are 18-41 ATS in their last 59 games following a win. Bet the Bulls Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +5.5

The Orlando Magic have been one of the most profitable teams to back all season, especially of late. They continue to fly under the radar as this is a young, talented team with a very bright future and they continue showing up on a nightly basis.

The Magic are 6-3 SU and a perfect 9-0 ATS in their last nine games overall with upset wins over the Knicks and Clippers. They were even competitive in all three losses losing by 3 at Phoenix, by 6 at the Lakers and by 5 at Memphis.

The Magic can stay within 5.5 of the Cavaliers at home tonight and possibly pull off the upset. Cleveland is just 18-21 SU on the road this season. They are kind of going through the motions right now basically locked into the 4th seed in the East. They are 1-2 SU & 0-2-1 ATS in their last three games overall losing at Atlanta, losing by 16 at home to the Knicks and only beating the depleted Pacers by 10 as 12-point home favorites. Bet the Magic Tuesday.

20* SDSU/UConn Championship Game No-Brainer on UConn -7

The UConn Huskies are as good as anyone in the country at their best.  They are loaded at guard  with Hawkins (16.3 PPG), Newton (9.9 PPG, 4.6 APG, 4.3 RPG) and Jackson (6.8 PPG, 6.4 RPG, 4.7 APG) and especially in the post with the trio of Sanogo (17.1 PPG, 7.5 RPG), Karaban (9.5 PPG, 4.4 RPG) and Clingan (7.1 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 1.8 BPG).

KenPom now has UConn as the No. 1 ranked team in the country based on all the data, even better than Houston and Alabama.  They have virtually no weaknesses, ranking 3rd in adjusted offense and 8th in adjusted defense.  They rank 8th in effective field goal percentage defense, 15th in 3-point percentage defense and 25th in block percentage defense.  Their completeness has really shown up in the Big Dance.

The Huskies have gone 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the NCAA Tournament while COVERING those five games by an average of 16.1 points per game.  They won by 24 over Iona as a 9.5-point favorite, by 15 over St. Mary's as a 4-point favorite, by 23 over Arkansas as a 3.5-point favorite, by 28 over Gonzaga as a 2.5-point favorite and by 13 over Miami as a 5.5-point favorite. We are witnessing one of the greatest teams in NCAA Tournament history.

San Diego State is lucky to be here.  The Aztecs snuck by Charleston in the opener, and they became the first team in NCAA Tournament history to win their Elite 8 and Final 4 games by a single point each.  They needed a 14-point comeback against FAU in the 2H to win that game and never led in the 2H until the buzzer.  FAU gave up a five offensive rebounds on free throws alone to give the game away.

Well, UConn won't have a problem keeping San Diego State off the glass.  The Huskies rank 2nd in offensive rebounding and 63rd in allowing offensive rebounds.  San Diego State ranks 76th in offensive rebounding and 68th in allowing offensive rebounds.  The Huskies will win the battle on the boards.

But the biggest advantage the Huskies have here is at guard, where their guards are elite and the Aztecs come up short in that department.  Matt Bradley has been hit or miss and shoots only 40.1% from the field on the season, Darrion Trammell has a lot of heart but is undersized and shoots just 36.1% and Lamont Butler shoots 41.8%.  Their poor shooting is a big reason the Aztecs rank just 218th in effective field goal percentage offense.  These guards and San Diego State in general have a lot of heart, but unfortunately they don't have the talent to match that of the Huskies.

I think the Aztecs have been very lucky to catch teams on 'off' shooting nights to this point with four wins by 7 points or fewer.  Creighton shot 2-of-17 (11.8%) from 3, Alabama shot 3-of-27 (11.1%), Furman shot 6-of-26 (23.1%) and Charleston shot 5-of-24 (20.8%).  So those four teams shot a combined 16-of-94 (17%) from 3 in this tournament.  That's good defense, but it's also a lot of luck.  FAU shot a more reasonable 9-of-22 (40.9%) against them and are a good shooting team like UConn that can spread you out with four good shooters on the court at all times.  The Huskies have made at least nine 3-pointers in all five Tournament games and shoot 36.3% from 3 on the season.

UConn is 16-0 SU & 15-1 ATS in non-conference games this season.  It's clear the Big East was a lot better than it got credit for as the Huskies have destroyed everyone outside the conference.  It will be more of the same against the overmatched Aztecs as the Huskies pull off yet another dominant win in the Championship Game.  Bet UConn Monday.

25* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Milwaukee Bucks -4.5

I love the spot for the Milwaukee Bucks tonight.  They are coming off their worst loss of the season to the Boston Celtics when playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  They have no had the last two days off to rest and recover and will come back pissed off after that defeat.

Adding to their motivation is the fact that the Bucks will be looking for revenge from a 130-133 home loss to Philadelphia on March 4th in their most recent meeting.  It's a much worst spot for the 76ers, who will be playing their 6th game in 10 days.

The Bucks are 6-0 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six games following a loss and haven't lost consecutive games since January 12-14.  The Bucks only lead the Celtics by 1.5 games for 1st place in the East so they have no margin for error, also adding to their motivation.

Milwaukee is 9-1 ATS following an upset loss as a favorite this season.  Bet the Bucks Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Night BLOWOUT on Sacramento Kings -15.5

The Sacramento Kings are still looking to improve their playoff positioning as they trail the Grizzlies by two games for 2nd place in the West.  They are handling their business right now beating the Blazers by 40 and 24 points in their last two games.  Now they get another Western Conference bottom feeder in the Spurs tonight, and the result should be the same.

The Spurs are 0-6 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall and tanking to try and get the No. 1 pick.  That's evident by the fact that all six losses came by 11 points or more including a 35-point loss at New Orleans, a 36-point loss at Milwaukee and a 44-point loss at Boston during this stretch.  They are resting almost all of their best players right now and are playing as a G League team.

The Kings are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last six meetings with the Spurs.  San Antonio is 9-26 ATS in its last 35 road games.  Bet the Kings Sunday.

20* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota Timberwolves -16.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves are battling to make the playoffs right now.  They are in 9th place in the West but just 2 games ahead of the Mavericks in 11th.  They have a great chance of improving their standing, and they won't be taking the Portland Trail Blazers lightly today.

The Portland Trail Blazers are obviously tanking to close out the season for the 2nd consecutive season.  The Blazers are resting their top four scorers in Lillard, Simons, Grant and Nurkic and playing a G League team right now.  Their injury report is laughable with 10 players on it right now.

The Blazers are 1-11 SU & 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  Eight of their last nine losses have come by 14 points or more and by an average of 21.6 points per game.  Their last three losses have come by 24, 40 and 34 points.  That's why I'm willing to fade them here and lay this big number with the Timberwolves.

This is a big step down in class for the Timberwolves after playing 16 consecutive games against teams that would be in the playoffs or the play-in round if the season were to end today.  They have won four of their last six games including upset road wins over the Knicks, Warriors and Kings.  Minnesota is 6-0 ATS in its last six home meetings with Portland.  Bet the Timberwolves Sunday.

20* Miami/UConn Final 4 No-Brainer on UConn -5

The UConn Huskies are as good as anyone in the country at their best.  They are loaded at guard  with Hawkins (16.3 PPG), Newton (9.9 PPG, 4.6 APG, 4.3 RPG) and Jackson (6.8 PPG, 6.4 RPG, 4.7 APG) and especially in the post with the trio of Sanogo (17.1 PPG, 7.5 RPG), Karaban (9.5 PPG, 4.4 RPG) and Clingan (7.1 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 1.8 BPG).

KenPom now has UConn as the No. 1 ranked team in the country based on all the data, even better than Houston and Alabama.  They have virtually no weaknesses, ranking 3rd in adjusted offense and 11th in adjusted defense.  They rank 8th in effective field goal percentage defense, 13th in 3-point percentage defense and 25th in block percentage defense.  Their completeness has really shown up in the Big Dance.

The Huskies have gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the NCAA Tournament while covering those four games by an average of 17.8 points per game.  They won by 24 over Iona as a 9.5-point favorite, by 15 over St. Mary's as a 4-point favorite, by 23 over Arkansas as a 3.5-point favorite and by 28 over Gonzaga as a 2.5-point favorite.

Miami needed a 9-point comeback in the final 5 minutes to beat Drake and a 13-point comeback in the final 12 minutes to beat Texas.  They did dominate both Houston and Indiana, and I take nothing away from them for those two victories.  No question Miami has the best trio of guards in this tournament, but opponents haven't exploited their biggest weakness, which is their defense, especially on the interior.

Drake, Indiana and Texas were all pretty weak on the interior at least defensively.  Texas was without its best big man in Dylan Disu, who was their best player dating back to the start of the NCAA Tournament.  UConn ranks 2nd in the country in offensive rebound rate grabbing 38.5% of its own misses.  Miami ranks 104th in adjusted defense, 207th in effective field goal percentage allowed and 179th in allowing offensive rebounds.  The Hurricanes will finally get punished for their defensive flaws in the Final 4.

Miami only has one productive big man in Norchad Omier, and he isn't going to be able to contain the three big men of UConn.  We saw how much Drew Timme struggled against them for Gonzaga and got into foul trouble and fouled out.  Omier will likely get into foul trouble in this one as UConn will keep attacking him with these big men, plus drives to the rim.  The Hurricanes are doomed if he gets in foul trouble, and probably doomed even if he doesn't as it's just too tall a task to ask of him to try and hang in the paint with UConn.  The Huskies are 28th in average height while the Hurricanes are 224th.

UConn is 15-0 SU & 14-1 ATS in non-conference games this season. Clearly, the Big East was better than it got credit for this season.  The Huskies are only 5-point favorites here while Houston was an 8-point favorite over Miami.  Again, KenPom has the Huskies as the better team than Houston, so comparing past lines there's value here with the favorite.  Bet UConn in the Final 4 Saturday.

20* Clippers/Pelicans NBA No-Brainer on New Orleans -2.5

The New Orleans Pelicans are 1.5 games out of 6th place in the West and only 2 games ahead of 11th place.  They need these games like blood here down the stretch and are playing like it.  The Pelicans are 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall with all six wins by double-digits and their lone loss coming on the 2nd of a back-to-back on the road at Golden State where they blew a 17-point halftime lead and ran out of gas.

Speaking of running out of gas, the Los Angeles Clippers will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 9th game in 15 days after losing 94-108 in Memphis last night.  They will have nothing left in the tank for the Pelicans, who had yesterday off and will the fresher, more motivated team.  The Clippers are also without Paul George and Marcus Morris and are likely to be without Eric Gordon, who left the Memphis game with a hip injury.

The Pelicans simply own the Clippers, going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings despite playing all three of those games on the road and pulling off two blowouts in upset wins as underdogs by 21 points each in their two meetings this season.  New Orleans is 40-17 ATS in the last 57 meetings, including 22-6 ATS in the last 28 home meetings.  The Pelicans are 6-0 ATS in their last six games when playing on one days' rest.  Bet the Pelicans Saturday.

20* FAU/San Diego State Final 4 No-Brainer on Florida Atlantic +2

I said going into the tournament that the FAU/Memphis winner would make a run to the Elite 8.  That's how high I was on both teams.  After backing Memphis in the Round of 64 against FAU, I have been on the Owls ever since.  They were fortunate to steal victory from the jaws of defeat in the final seconds against Memphis, and they have been riding that momentum and confidence ever since.

FAU was in a tough spot not being the cinderella against Fairleigh Dickinson, but managed to handle their business in a 78-70 victory.  They then came back and upset Tennessee 62-55, beating a Vols team that is very similar to this San Diego State squad.  And they made all the clutch free throws they needed to to hold off Kansas State in a 79-76 victory in the Elite 8.

FAU comes out of Conference USA, which is the best mid-major conference in the country.  That has been proven with C-USA teams going 17-1 SU in postseason tournaments this season.  Charlotte won the CBI, North Texas and UAB will play in the NIT Championship Game, and now FAU is in the Final 4.  The Owls have been more battle-tested than they get credit for playing in such a tough conference, and now with four consecutive wins in the NCAA Tournament to get here.

FAU has very few weaknesses.  They rank 24th in adjusted offense and 29th in adjusted defense.  They rank 25th in effective field goal percentage offense and 15th in effective field goal percentage defense.  They have five players on the court at all times that can hit 3-pointers.  Their four guard lineups are tough to tame, and versatile big man Vladislav Goldin (10.3 PPG, 6.6 RPG, 1.2 BPG, 62.7% FG's) is a matchup nightmare.  They go nine deep and all seven guards shoot at least 32.3% from 3, and four of the top five shoot at least 36.6% from 3.

A lot has been made about San Diego State's 3-point defense, but they haven't faced a team that can shoot it like FAU and is as versatile.  I think the Aztecs have been very lucky to catch teams on 'off' shooting nights to this point with three wins by 7 points or fewer.  Creighton shot 2-of-17 (11.8%) from 3, Alabama shot 3-of-27 (11.1%), Furman shot 6-of-26 (23.1%) and Charleston shot 5-of-24 (20.8%).  So the four teams they have faced have shot a combined 16-of-94 (17%) from 3 in this tournament.  That's good defense, but it's also a lot of luck.  I think their luck runs out against FAU.

Guard play wins in the tournament, and the Aztecs don't have the best guards.  Matt Bradley has been lost the last couple games and shoots only 40.1% from the field on the season, Darrion Trammell has a lot of heart but is undersized and shoots just 36.1% and Lamont Butler shoots 41.8%.  San Diego State is brutal on offense and goes on long scoring droughts, and one of those is going to be costly against FAU.  San Diego State ranks 223rd in the country in effective field goal percentage on offense.

Florida Atlantic is 11-2 ATS in non-conference games this season.  The Owls are 10-0 ATS following two consecutive non-conference games this season.  The other three Mountain West teams all lost their first NCAA Tournament games and the MWC is now 4-13 SU & 4-13 ATS in their last 16 NCAA Tournament games.  All four wins belong to SDSU this tournament.  I'll gladly side with C-USA over MWC in this game as FAU is the better team in my opinion with fewer weaknesses and should not be the underdog.  Bet Florida Atlantic Saturday.

20* NBA Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State Warriors -15.5

The Golden State Warriors finally flipped the switch to playoff mode and are a dangerous team right now.  They have gone 4-1 in the last five games overall with their lone loss coming by 3 points.  They are rested and ready to go coming in on two days' rest and motivated to avoid the play-in round of the playoffs.  They will not take the San Antonio Spurs lightly as a result.

The Spurs are clearly tanking right now.  They are 0-5 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall losing by 35 at New Orleans, by 36 at Milwaukee, by 12 at Washington, by 44 at Boston and by 11 at home to Utah.  They have lost those five games by an average of 27.6 points per game, which is why I'm not scared to lay this big number with the Warriors.

The Spurs' injury report is laughable at this point with eight players on it.  They will be without Zach Collins and Jeremy Sochan and are likely to rest Keldon Johnson, Devin Vassell and Romeo Langford for injury management.  The Warriors are fully healthy with the exception of Andrew Wiggins, who has been out for a couple months now.

San Antonio is 1-12 ATS when revenging a home loss by 10 points or more this season.  The Spurs are 0-7 ATS following four consecutive losses by 10 points or more this season.  The Warriors are 31-8 SU & 26-12-1 ATS at home this season.  The Spurs are 7-23 ATS in their last 30 road games.  The Warriors are 38-15-1 ATS in their last 54 home games.  Bet the Warriors Friday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Sacramento Kings -14.5

The Portland Trail Blazers are obviously tanking to close out the season for the 2nd consecutive season.  The Blazers are resting their top four scorers in Lillard, Simons, Grant and Nurkic and playing a G League team right now.  Their injury report is laughable with 10 players on it right now.

The Blazers are 1-10 SU & 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  Seven of their last eight losses have come by 14 points or more and by an average of 21 points per game.  That's why I'm willing to fade them here and lay this big number with the Sacramento Kings.

The Kings are fully healthy right now and should make easy work of the Blazers.  They beat the Blazers by 40 on Wednesday and by 17 in their two most recent meetings.  They play at a fast pace and lead the NBA in offensive efficiency, so that's another reason why I have no problem laying this big of a number.  I just don't think the Blazers have the firepower to keep up missing all these players.

The Kings are 8-1 ATS in their last nine road games.  Portland is 1-7 ATS in its last eight home games with seven losses by double-digits.  The Blazers are 4-17-1 ATS in their last 22 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Kings Friday.

20* Pelicans/Nuggets TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on New Orleans +7

The New Orleans Pelicans are 1.5 games out of 6th place in the West and only 1.5 games ahead of 11th place.  They need these games like blood here down the stretch and are playing like it.  They Pelicans are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with all five wins by double-digits and their lone loss coming on the 2nd of a back-to-back on the road at Golden State where they blew a 17-point halftime lead and ran out of gas.

While the Pelicans are playing with a sense of urgency, the Denver Nuggets have plenty of margin for error.  They have a 3.5-game lead over the Grizzlies for 1st place in the West with seven games left.  They could decide to rest Nikola Jokic, who is very questionable with calf injury.  Either way, I like the Pelicans to stay within this 7-point spread given all the motivation factors.

Willie Green is 14-2 ATS vs. terrible defensive team that allow 48% shooting or higher as the coach of New Orelans.  Plays against home favorites (Denver) - following two or more consecutive home wins in March games are 30-8 (78.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Pelicans are 6-2 ATS in their last eight trips to Denver.  Bet the Pelicans Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on Sacramento Kings -13.5

The Portland Trail Blazers are obviously tanking to close out the season for the 2nd consecutive season.  The Blazers are resting their top four scorers in Lillard, Simons, Grant and Nurkic.  They are also expected to be without Reddish and Watford tonight, who are both listed as doubtful.

The Blazers are 1-9 SU & 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  Six of their last seven losses have come by 14 points or more and by an average of 18.6 points per game.  That's why I'm willing to face them here and lay this big number with the Sacramento Kings.

The Kings are fully healthy right now and should make easy work of the Blazers.  They beat the Blazers by 17 in their most recent meeting.  They play at a fast pace and lead the NBA in offensive efficiency, so that's another reason why I have no problem laying this big of a number.  I just don't think the Blazers have the firepower to keep up missing six of their best players.

The Kings are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games.  Sacramento is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games following a loss.  Portland is 1-6 ATS in its last seven home games with six losses by double-digits.  The Blazers are 4-16-1 ATS in their last 21 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Kings Wednesday.

20* Pelicans/Warriors TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on New Orleans +9.5

The New Orleans Pelicans came up clutch last season behind Brandon Ingram and CJ McCollum just to get into the playoffs.  They are coming up clutch again behind these two with their season on the line trying to make the playoffs again this year.

Indeed, the Pelicans have saved their best basketball for last, going 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall with all five wins by double-digits and by an average of 23.8 points per game.  Yes, they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back here, but that is mitigated by the fact that they got to rest their starters in the 4th quarter of a 124-90 blowout win in Portland.

The Pelicans will be plenty fresh tonight, and they'll have no problem getting up to face the defending champs, who they trail by just a 0.5 games in the standings.  The Warriors have been overvalued all season, especially of late going 5-7 SU & 4-8 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  That includes an upset home loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves as 6.5-point favorites last time out.  Bet the Pelicans Tuesday.

20* Utah Valley/UAB NIT No-Brainer on Utah Valley +2

I've been riding Conference USA in the NIT and the NCAA Tournament, but I think it's time to fade the conference here and go against UAB.  Not because I don't think the Blazers are good, I just think Utah Valley is better and the wrong team is favored here.

Utah Valley is 28-8 this season and should have won their conference tournament but lost by a single point to Southern Utah.  They have taken out their frustration in the NIT thus far, winning at two of the toughest places to play in the country.

Utah Valley went into New Mexico and won 83-69 as 5.5-point dogs.  They followed it up with an 81-69 win at Colorado as 4.5-point dogs.  They finally got to play a home game and took advantage, topping Cincinnati 74-68 as 1.5-point favorites.  That was previously the biggest game in program history, and now this will be the biggest game in program history in the semifinals.

One hidden factor here is that this will essentially feel like a home game for Utah Valley State being played in Las Vegas.  Fans will be making the 5-hour trek to Las Vegas to support their team.  Nobody from UAB is driving the 26 hours to Vegas.  They may fly, but I can't see them having nearly the support that the Wolverines do.

The Wolverines are 22-5 ATS in their last 27 games overall.  The Blazers are 7-15-1 ATS in their last 23 games following an ATS win.  UAB had the much easier path to get here beating Southern Miss and Morehead State at home as well as a short-handed Vanderbilt team on the road.  Utah Valley had three better wins than them and are more battle-tested.  Bet Utah Valley Tuesday.

25* NIT GAME OF THE YEAR on North Texas -1

Conference USA was one of the best mid-major conferences in the country this season. C-USA is now 15-1 SU in all tournament games this season. Florida Atlantic, UAB and North Texas were all NCAA Tournament-worthy teams, and FAU is still playing in the Final 4 as of this writing. That easily could have been North Texas instead.

North Texas was dominant in its first two NIT games beating Alcorn State by 16 and Sam Houston State by 20.  The Mean Green then went on the road and upset Oklahoma State by 6 as 4.5-point dogs.  The Mean Green are now 14-2 SU & 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games overall.

Wisconsin benefited from a pretty easy path to get here.  They beat Bradley and Liberty (by 4) at home before going on the road and upsetting Oregon 61-58.  But Oregon was without three of its best players, and that line was steamed from Wisconsin +5 down to +1.5 after the news came out.  Yet the Badgers were still life and death with the Ducks.  

This will be Wisconsin's stiffest test yet, and the Big Ten only had one team remaining in the Sweet 16, and Michigan State lost to Kansas State to go to the Elite 8.  Wisconsin is 1-9-2 ATS in its last 12 games following a win.  The Badgers are 0-5-2 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS win.  This is one of the biggest games in program history for the Mean Green, and not only are they the better team, but they simply want it more.  Bet North Texas Tuesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Indiana Pacers +1

Note: I released this play before the news of Luka Doncic having his 16th technical rescinded, thus being able to play tonight.  I would still make this a 20* play at the current line of Pacers +4.  The Mavericks have been terrible with or without Doncic, and he will be on tired legs.  I still think the Pacers win this game outright.

The Indiana Pacers are still fighting to stay alive for a play-in spot in the East.  Five of their last six games have come against playoff teams and all on the road, and they managed to win two of them as 12-point dogs at Milwaukee and 9.5-point dogs at Toronto.  Now the Pacers are back home here for just the 2nd time in their lats nine games.

The Pacers are 19-17 SU & 21-14-1 ATS at home this season and welcome the hapless Dallas Mavericks, who are falling apart at the seams.  They just they lost four consecutive games including back-to-back losses to the Hornets as 15.5-point home favorites and 12.5-point road favorites.

Luka Doncic picked up his 16th technical foul yesterday against the Hornets and scored 40 points in the process.  But now they won't have his scoring because he has been suspended for this game, terrible timing for the star player on a team that is currently on the outside looking in for the playoffs.  I just don't trust this team at all right now as they are simply imploding.

Rick Carlisle has stuck it to his former team with the Pacers after he got fired by the Mavericks.  The Pacers are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four meetings with Dallas.  He would love nothing more than to deal them another blow to their playoff hopes.  The Pacers had yesterday off, while the Mavericks will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 8 days.

Dallas is 5-17 ATS in non-conference games this season.  The Mavericks are 5-13 ATS as road favorites this season.  Dallas is 7-23-1 ATS in its last 31 games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Mavericks are 0-4 ATS in their last four games when playing on zero rest.  Bet the Pacers Monday. 

20* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Orlando Magic -2

The Brooklyn Nets will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 8 days tonight.  Three starters played at least 34 minutes last night in their upset win over the Miami Heat in Bridges, Dinwiddie and Claxton.  They won't have much left in the tank tonight for Orlando, and this is now a bit of a letdown spot for them.

The Magic have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA in the second half of the season.  They have gone 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall which includes an upset road win over the Clippers, a 3-point loss at Phoenix, a 6-point loss at LA Lakers, a 10-point home win over the Wizards and a 5-point home win over the Knicks.  Now they come in rested and ready to go after having the last two days off.

Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Orlando) - revenging a same-season loss against an opponent that is coming off an upset win by 10 points or more as a road underdog are 32-10 (76.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Brooklyn is getting too much respect off that upset win at Miami last night.  Bet the Magic Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Indiana Pacers +9.5

The Indiana Pacers are fighting for their playoff lives right now.  They are in 11th place in the East and within 3 games of the Hawks, Raptors and Bulls for the final three spots.  They continue to battle through injury and are getting healthy here for the stretch run, making them a dangerous team.

The Pacers just got Tyrese Haliburton back from injury last night and are still 8-7 SU & 9-6 ATS in their last 15 games overall.  They did get blown out by 25 points, so that allowed them to rest starters in the 4th quarter to remain somewhat fresh for the Hawks tonight, a team they will be extra motivated to beat since it's one of the teams they are trailing.

Asking the Hawks to beat the Pacers by double-digits to beat us is asking too much.  They are just 2-4 SU in their last six games overall with a 9-point home loss to Boston, a 21-point home loss to Minnesota, an 8-point road loss at San Antonio as a double-digit favorite and a 1-point loss at Minnesota.  Top three scorers Trae Young, Dejounte Murray and De'Andre Hunter are all questionable to play for the Hawks tonight.

Indiana is 10-2 ATS after scoring 105 points or fewer this season.  Atlanta is 10-26 ATS in its last 36 games following an ATS win.  The Hawks are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games playing on two days' rest.  Bet the Pacers Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento Kings -3

The Phoenix Suns are without two key starters in Kevin Durant and DeAndre Ayton right now.  With all the talent they traded away to get Durant, they cannot afford to be without these two.  That has shown up of late as the Suns are 1-5 SU & 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall.

Their lone win came at home against the Magic by 3 as 8-point favorites.  They lost on the road to the Lakers by 11, the Warriors by 11 and the Thunder by 4.  They also lost at home to the Bucks by 12 and the Kings by 9, so they have rarely even been competitive of late.  It's too much on Devin Booker's shoulders and he can't carry the load.

The Kings should be more than 3-point home favorites tonight considering they are fully healthy and playing well.  They also come in off consecutive losses and will be motivated for a victory, plus they come in on two days' rest.  The Kings can inch closer to winning the division tonight, and it's going to be a tremendous atmosphere at home tonight as Sacramento fans absolutely love this team, especially when they are in contention.

The Kings are 10-1 ATS after failing to cover the spread in two or more consecutive games this season.  They are outscoring opponents by 11.5 points per game in this spot.  This one has blowout written all over it tonight.  Bet the Kings Friday.

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -2

The Chicago Bulls are battling here down the stretch to try and make the playoffs.  They are currently 10th in the East and in the final play-in spot.  They have gone 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall with their only losses coming to the Kings and 76ers.  They upset the 76ers as 8.5-point road dogs and upset the Nuggets as 9-point road dogs during this stretch.

Now the Bulls take on the hapless Portland Trail Blazers, who are simply going through the motions here down the stretch as they have been all but eliminated from the playoffs.  The Blazers are 1-6 SU & 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall with five losses by 14 points or more.  They are without Simons and Grant right now and could be without Nurkic, leaving way too much on Damian Lillard's shoulders to handle.

The Blazers are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four home games losing by 11, 14, 15 and 16 points.  They have zero home-court advantage right now as the fans have given up on this team this season.  I'll gladly back the more motivated, healthier Bulls tonight.  Bet the Bulls Friday.

15* Xavier/Texas Sweet 16 Late-Night BAILOUT on Texas -4

The Texas Longhorns are playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They have won six consecutive games and are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  That includes a pair of blowout wins over Kansas by 20 in the Big 12 Tournament and by 16 at home.

The Longhorns now go back to Kansas City for the Sweet 16, a familiar venue for them as they just won the Big 12 Tournament there by beating Oklahoma State by 14, TCU by 6 and Kansas by 20.  They are now 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games in Kansas City, and their familiarity with the venue is a hidden advantage as it will feel like a home game for them.

Xavier is overvalued after an easy path to the Sweet 16.  They needed a 13-point comeback in the final 12 minutes against Kennesaw State to win 72-67.  Then they beat a Pittsburgh team 84-73 that arguably shouldn't have even been in the NCAA Tournament.  This is a big step up in class for Xavier compared to what they have faced thus far, while Texas fended off a red hot Penn State team that was playing as well as anyone in the Big Ten down the stretch.

Texas has no weakness ranking 5th in KenPom at 15th in adjusted offense while 10th in adjusted defense.  Xavier is an elite offensive team, but they struggle on the other end ranking 64th in adjusted defense.  I always like backing the better defensive team in the NCAA Tournament given the choice.  Dylan Disu will dominate the paint in this one.  He is shooting 72.2% while averaging 17.8 points and 9 rebounds per game since the start of the Big 12 Tournament.  The Musketeers have nobody inside that can match up with him, plus Texas has three elite guards which wins in the tournament as well.  Bet Texas Friday.

20* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Indiana Pacers +12.5

The Indiana Pacers are fighting for their playoff lives right now.  They are in 11th place in the East just 1.5 games behind the Bulls and 2 games behind the Raptors for the final two play-in spots.  They continue to battle through injury and are getting healthy here for the stretch run, making them a dangerous team.

The Pacers are coming off a 118-114 win at Toronto as 9.5-point dogs without Tyrese Haliburton.  There's a decent chance they get him back tonight, which would mean they are at full strength.  But they have been a money maker even without him, going 8-6 SU & 9-5 ATS in their last 14 games overall.

The Boston Celtics are just 6-6 SU & 5-7 ATS in their last 12 games overall and getting way too much respect from oddsmakers tonight.  This is a terrible spot for the Celtics as it's their first game back home following a six-game road trip.  I always like fading teams in that first home game back from an extended road trip because there are a lot of distractions to deal with at home, and it tends to be a flat spot.

The Pacers are 2-2 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings with the Celtics with two outright wins as 9.5-point dogs, a 5-point loss as a 15-point dog and a 4-point loss in OT as a 7.5-point dog.  It's safe to say the Pacers match up very well with the Celtics, and getting 12.5 points is too much tonight.  Bet the Pacers Friday.

15* San Diego State/Alabama Sweet 16 ANNIHILATOR on Alabama -7

I've faded the Mountain West with success for years in the NCAA Tournament.  It work out well with all teams not named San Diego State this season, but the Aztecs will be taking a big step up in class here against the most complete team in all of college basketball.

The Mountain West is 2-13 SU & 2-13 ATS in the last 15 NCAA Tournament games.  The Mountain West is also 0-6 SU & 1-5 ATS in the last six Sweet 16 games.  This conference has been grossly overvalued for years, and the Aztecs aren't about to break that trend in the Sweet 16 here.  They beat two of the worst teams in the tournament in Charleston and Furman to get here.

Now they face an Alabama team that ranks 18th in adjusted offense and 3rd in adjusted defense.  They have no weaknesses.  San Diego State ranks 70th in adjusted offense and doesn't have the firepower to keep up with the Crimson Tide if they fall behind.  Maryland tried to muck it up last round against Alabama and was blown out 73-51.  San Diego State will try to muck it up too, but they just aren't on the same level as Alabama.

These teams have a common opponent in Arkansas.  San Diego State lost 78-74 to Arkansas on a neutral, while Alabama won both meetings with the Razorbacks by a combined 18 points this season.  If Arkansas got 78 points on them, Alabama can certainly do more damage offensively as they are much better shooting team than the Razorbacks.

This will feel like a home game for Alabama being played in Louisville, Kentucky while San Diego State has to travel clear across the country here.  Alabama is a perfect 8-0 ATS vs. good ball handling teams that commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game this season, winning by an average of 21.6 points per game in this spot.  The Aztecs are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a win by more than 20 points and are getting way too much respect following the blowout win over Furman.  Bet Alabama Friday.

15* Gonzaga/UCLA Sweet 16 Late-Night BAILOUT on Gonzaga +2

The UCLA Bruins are without their best defensive player in Jaylen Clark (13.0 PPG, 6.0 RPG, 2.6 SPG).  Adam Bona (7.7 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 1.7 BPG) is playing through a shoulder injury, and David Singleton (9.1 PPG) suffered a bad ankle injury in the Round of 32 and is very questionable to play against Gonzaga.

The Bruins were able to survive a 68-63 scare from Northwestern last round, but they won't be so fortunate as they take a big step up in class here against Gonzaga while dealing with all these injuries.  The Bulldogs have made relatively easy work of both Grand Canyon and TCU, but the Horned Frogs made a late comeback to make the final score seemed closer than it really was.

Gonzaga comes in playing its best basketball of the season riding an 11-game winning streak.  That includes a pair of dominant wins over St. Mary's 77-68 at home and 77-51 in the WCC Championship Game.  St. Mary's plays a similar grind it out style to UCLA.

UCLA is ranked 3rd in KenPom right now, which has them inflated as a favorite here.  But they aren't the 3rd-best team in the country.  I would have a handful of teams ranked ahead of them, including Gonzaga given their current injury situation.  And UCLA hasn't seen an offense as potent as Gonzaga all season.  The Bulldogs rank 1st in offensive efficiency and 1st in effective field goal percentage.  They are also 12th in turnover rate so they don't beat themselves.  They shoot 38.4% from 3 and 52.6% from 2 while averaging 87.3 points per game.

This game will be played in Las Vegas, and Gonzaga just won the WCC Tournament in Las Vegas.  They always get tremendous fan support there and it will feel like a home game for them.  UCLA is 0-7 ATS in its last seven road games vs. teams that shoot 48% or better, and 1-8 ATS in its last nine road games vs. good offensive teams that average 77 or more points per game.  Bet Gonzaga Thursday.

20* FAU/Tennessee Sweet 16 No-Brainer on Florida Atlantic +5.5

Everyone was on Duke last week including myself.  But I didn't plan for big man Mark Mitchell getting injured in practice the day before the game and sitting out.  They missed his big body against Tennessee, a physical team that relies on defense to win games.

Now the Volunteers are starting to get respect from oddsmakers this week after beating Duke.  But this team is a fraud and it will rear its ugly head here in the Sweet 16 against Florida Atlantic.  The Volunteers are still just 7-7 SU & 5-9 ATS in their last 14 games overall and without their starting PG in Zakai Zeigler.  They are one of the worst offensive teams left in this tournament, which makes it tough for them to get margin.  That showed up in a 58-55 win over Louisiana in the opener.

Florida Atlantic is 33-3 this season and came out of one of the best mid-major conferences in the country.  Both North Texas and UAB were NCAA Tournament-worthy, and the Owls outlasted both.  North Texas and UAB are both making runs in the NIT as of this writing to show how good this conference really is.  So I think FAU has played a tougher schedule than it gets credit for.

The win over Memphis was a really good one as the Tigers were playing as well as almost anyone in the country.  They had beaten Houston in the AAC ChampionshIp Game, and I expected them to make a deep run in the tournament.  I was pissed they got matched up with FAU because I figured the winner of that game had a great chance to make a deep run and beat Purdue.  Well, Fairleigh Dickinson did that for them both in the opening round.

FAU instead of playing the cinderella actually played the role of hated favorite against FDU as the entire country was rooting against them.  That was a tough spot for them to be in, and they handled it well pulling away late to beat FDU 78-70.  Now they can get back to being that cinderella role and playing with a chip on their shoulder getting a chance to face a Power 6 team.

KenPom has Tennessee ranked 6th right now with Florida Atlantic 22nd.  Tennessee being power-rated too highly has them overvalued.  The Vols have scored 71 or fewer points in 11 of their last 14 games overall.  They should be ranked much worse than 60th in adjusted offense.  They will struggle to get anything easy against a FAU defense that ranks 35th in adjusted defense and 15th in effective field goal percentage.

Rick Barnes is just 3-14 ATS in its last 17 NCAA Tournament games.  Florida Atlantic is 9-2 ATS in non-conference games this season.  The Owls are 22-10-1 ATS in their last 33 games overall.  Florida Atlantic is 8-0 ATS following two consecutive non-conference games this season.  Bet Florida Atlantic Thursday.

25* Sweet 16 GAME OF THE YEAR on UConn -3.5

The UConn Huskies are as good as anyone in the country at their best.  They are loaded at guard  with Hawkins (15.9 PPG), Newton (10.1 PPG, 4.7 APG, 4.2 RPG) and Jackson (6.8 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 4.4 APG) and especially in the post with the trio of Sanogo (17.3 PPG, 7.5 RPG), Karaban (9.4 PPG, 4.3 RPG) and Clingan (7.1 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 1.8 BPG).

The Huskies have virtually no weaknesses.  That's why KenPom has them as the 4th-best team in the country, and I agree with it.  He only has Houston, Alabama and UCLA ranked ahead of them, and I would have them ahead of the Bruins given their current injury situation.  UConn ranks 3rd in adjusted offense and 14th in adjusted defense.

Arkansas is getting a lot of respect after upsetting Kansas.  But Kansas was a fraud No. 1 seed along with Purdue.  KenPom had Kansas ranked five spots below UConn and they probably should have been worse with the way they played to finish the season.  Arkansas is ranked 18th according to KenPom while St. Mary's was 12th, yet UConn is a shorter favorite against Arkansas than they were against KenPom.  That's value.

The matchup is a good one for the Huskies.  Arkansas consistently tries to get to the room and get fouled or get layups because they are a terrible shooting team.  They rank 317th in the country in 3-point percentage at 31.3%.  UConn is 19th in the country in 2-point defense at 45.4%.  They are 24th in block percentage and have the big men inside that won't allow Arkansas to get easy buckets at the rim like Kansas and Illinois did.  

Even then, Arkansas shot just 38.1% against Illinois and 41.4% against Kansas and now faces a better defensive team here in UConn.  Arkansas ranks 138th in allowing offensive rebounds defensively, while UConn ranks 2nd in the country in offensive rebounding.  Winning the battle on the glass will also be a key factor in the Huskies running away with this game.

UConn is 11-2 SU & 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games overall and playing its best basketball of the season with all 11 wins coming by 6 points or more, and the two losses coming by a combined 5 points in road/neutral environments to Creighton and Marquette.  That includes blowout wins by 24 over Iona and by 15 over St. Mary's to start the NCAA Tournament.  UConn is 12-1 ATS in non-conference games this season.  Bet UConn Thursday.

15* Suns/Lakers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +1

The Phoenix Suns are without two key starters in Kevin Durant and DeAndre Ayton right now.  With all the talent they traded away to get Durant, they cannot afford to be without these two.  That has shown up of late as the Suns are 1-4 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.

Yet the Suns continue to get too much respect from oddsmakers tonight as road favorites over the Los Angeles Lakers.  This is a Lakers team that needs wins like blood right now trying to make the Western Conference playoffs.  It's also a Lakers team that is fully healthy with the exception of LeBron James, and unlike the Suns, they are deep enough to still win without him.

The Lakers are 9-5 SU & 8-5-1 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  De'Angelo Russell recently returned to the lineup and is playing well as the Lakers have scored 108 or more points in eight consecutive games now.  Anthony Davis is playing like the superstar they need him to be and will dominate tonight not having to face Ayton, and the role players are all doing their parts as well to try and get this team into the playoffs.  Bet the Lakers Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on Utah Jazz -4.5

The Utah Jazz are fighting to make the playoffs right now in 10th place in the West just a half-game ahead of both the Lakers and Pelicans.  They have come up clutch going 4-2 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall with their two losses coming by 4 points apiece to the Mavericks and Heat, both on the road in games they covered.

They have done this despite missing both Jordan Clarkson and Collin Sexton.  Lauri Markkanen has even missed some games, but he is upgraded to probable tonight.  The Jazz are showing they are much deeper than they get credit for, and I know I'm going to get max effort from them tonight given what they've shown of late and their current standing.

I also think it's safe to assume we are going to get a below average effort from the Blazers, who just seem to be going through the motions right now 4 games out of a playoff spot.  The Blazers are 0-6 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall losing by 22 at Boston, by 17 at New Orleans, by 16 at home to New York, by 16 at home to Boston and by 15 at home to the Clippers.

As you can see, the Blazers haven't even been competitive during this six-game losing streak.  They are without two of their top three scorers right now in Anfernee Simons (21.1 PPG, 4.1 APG) and Jerami Grant (20.5 PPG), and Damian Lillard has been voicing his frustration in the media.  It's just a really bad look for the Blazers right now, and there's no reason to believe they are going to show up tonight.

Utah is 10-0 ATS in its last 10 home games after covering the spread in five or more consecutive games coming in.  The Blazers are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Utah is 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet the Jazz Wednesday.

20* Utah Valley/Cincinnati NIT No-Brainer on Utah Valley PK

Utah Valley is 27-8 this season and should have won their conference tournament but lost by a single point to Southern Utah.  They have taken out their frustration in the NIT thus far, winning at two of the toughest places to play in the country.

Utah Valley went into New Mexico and won 83-69 as 5.5-point dogs.  They followed it up with an 81-69 win at Colorado as 4.5-point dogs.  Now they get to host Cincinnati in the Quarterfinals, and this is the biggest game in program history.  It will be a tremendous atmosphere, and these kids would love nothing more than to play in Las Vegas for the NIT Semis.

Cincinnati has also been impressive in beating Virginia Tech and Hofstra thus far.  I don't want to take anything away from them, but I just think it means more for Utah Valley.  We also saw Utah Valley beat both BYU and Oregon on the road in the non-conference as they really tested themselves.

I think a hidden factor here is that Cincinnati is listed as the bottom team in the rotation order, so many think Cincinnati is the home team here.  I think we're getting value because of that flaw with Utah Valley actually being the home team instead.  The Wolverines are 21-5 ATS in their last 26 games overall.  The Wolverines are 9-1 ATS after scoring 80 points or more this season.  Bet Utah Valley Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Indiana Pacers +9.5

The Indiana Pacers are getting healthier and trying to make one final playoff push.  They are 2.5 games back of the Bulls for 10th and 3 games back of the Raptors.  Well, they get to play the Raptors tonight with a chance to cut into that deficit.

The Pacers clearly match up well with the Raptors.  They are 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS against them this season winning 118-104 and 122-114.  There's a chance the Raptors are without Scottie Barnes (15.5 PPG, 6.9 RPG, 4.7 APG), who is questionable with a wrist injury.

It's a good time to 'sell high' on the Raptors after going 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  Asking the Raptors to win this game by double-digits to beat us is asking too much.  Bet the Pacers Wednesday.