Sports Picks & Predictions

15* Loyola/K-State Elite 8 ANNIHILATOR on Loyola-Chicago +1.5 

I’ve been riding Loyola-Chicago hard through the first three rounds of the NCAA Tournament.  I’m not about to stop now when they’re up against arguably the worst team they’ve had to face yet in Kansas State in the Elite 8.  They already dispatched of Miami, Tennessee and Nevada, and yet here they are once again underdogs when they should be the favorites. 

The Ramblers just have no weaknesses.  They play elite defense, giving up just 62.4 points per game and 41.6% shooting, including only 32.9% from 3-point range.  Offensively, they shoot 50.7% as a team and 39.7% from 3-point range with a plethora of their regular players being able to knock down the 3-pointer.  Plus, they share the basketball better than anyone in the tournament, averaging 16 assists per game. 

Kansas State caught a break getting this far.  They beat an injury-plagued Creighton team, got to face UMBC after their upset over Virginia, and caught Kentucky on an off night where the Wildcats couldn’t throw the ball into the ocean, especially from the free throw line.  And K-State got hot from 3-point range against Kentucky despite the fact that they only shoot it at a 34.5% clip for the season.  Their luck runs out tonight. 

I also like the fact that Loyola-Chicago got to play the early game on Thursday.  That means they were able to sit around after beating Nevada and watch the K-State/Kentucky game.  That’s a huge advantage for the team that played the first game in terms of rest and preparation heading into the next round when there’s only one day in between games. 

Kansas State is 0-7 ATS off three or more consecutive wins this season.  Loyola is 10-0 ATS after allowing 30 points or less in the first half of two straight games this season.  The Ramblers are 6-0 ATS when playing with one or less days’ rest over the last two years.  Loyola is 5-0 ATS in its last five neutral site games.  These four trends combine for a perfect 28-0 system backing the Ramblers.  Take Loyola-Chicago Saturday. 

15* Texas Tech/Purdue Sweet 16 No-Brainer on Texas Tech +2 

The Texas Tech Red Raiders were the best team in the Big 12 for the majority of the season.  They went into Kansas and won early in the conference season back when they were at full strength. 

But then injuries hit and the Red Raiders struggled down the stretch.  Leading scorer Keenan Evans had turf toe, and the Red Raiders went 2-5 during that stretch.  Zach Smith also missed 14 games with an injury.   

But now both Evans and Smith are back to being healthy, and the Red Raiders are playing like they did earlier this season.  They are basically 24-4 in games in which Evans had been healthy.  This is a dangerous team and one capable of a Final Four run because they are loaded everywhere and play elite defense.  They give up just 64.6 points per game and 40.3% shooting on the season. 

Purdue suffered a big blow when center Isaac Haas (14.7 ppg, 5.7 rpg) suffered a broken elbow in the Round of 64.  The Boilermakers were fortunate to get by Butler 76-73 without him last round, but now they take a step up in class here. 

The Boilermakers have been struggling for quite some time anyway, going just 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall.  They are also 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games following a win.  Take Texas Tech Friday. 

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on San Antonio Spurs -2.5

The San Antonio Spurs have responded well.  Just over a week ago they were in 9th place in the West and in jeopardy of missing the playoffs for the first time since the 1996-97 season.  But they knew they had a great stretch coming up with a six-game home stand. 

The Spurs have taken advantage by going 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  They have won three times by 14 points or more with four of their five wins coming against playoff teams.  Look for them to cap off this 6-game home stand with another win and cover at home against Utah. 

The Spurs will be highly motivated for a win to avoid the season sweep against Utah, which has won the first three meetings.  The Spurs are 39-8 SU & 30-14-3 ATS in their last 47 home meetings with the Jazz.  And now they catch a tired Jazz team that will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days following a 119-112 win in Dallas last night. 

Plays on favorites of 3 to 9.5 points (San Antonio) - after leading their last three games by 5-plus points at halftime against opponent after scoring 115 points or more are 28-8 (77.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Spurs are 11-3 ATS in home games off a home win this season.  Bet the Spurs Friday. 

15* Clemson/Kansas Sweet 16 ANNIHILATOR on Kansas -4.5 

Because they earned a No. 1 seed, the Kansas Jayhawks have had the luxury of playing near home.  They played in Wichita, KS the first two rounds, and now they get to play in Omaha, NE the next two rounds.  They will certainly have a big home-court advantage for this Sweet 16 matchup with Clemson. 

I think this line is lower than it should be for two reasons.  One, Kansas failed to cover as 4.5-point favorites in an 83-79 win over Seton Hall.  But Seton Hall couldn’t miss from 3-point range down the stretch as the Jayhawks couldn’t sustain their double-digit lead.  And the Pirates even got a 3-pointer at the buzzer to cover. 

Conversely, Clemson had its best game of the season in an 84-53 win over rival Auburn.  But that Auburn team was fading down the stretch due to injuries and was ripe for the picking.  They had nearly lost in the Round of 64 the game before.  So Clemson’s win over Auburn looks more impressive than it really was. 

Kansas just got back stud center Udoka Azubuike (13.2 ppg, 6.9 rpg) for the Round of 32 matchup with Seton Hall.  Now with a game under his belt, and with four days off since their win over the Pirates Saturday, Azubuike should be back in game shape and ready to dominate.  Clemson is undermanned inside and will have a really difficult time dealing with him. 

Clemson is 0-6 ATS after leading its last two games by 10-plus points at the half over the last two seasons.  Kansas is 8-1-1 ATS in it last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Jayhawks are 5-1 ATS in their last six vs. ACC opponents.  The Tigers are 0-4 ATS in their last four vs. Big 12 foes.  Roll with Kansas Friday. 

15* Hawks/Kings NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento -1.5 

The Sacramento Kings are rested and ready to go tonight.  They have had two days off since last playing on Monday in a disappointing home loss to the Pistons.  But they were without one of their best scorers in Bogdan Bogdanovic for that game, and he is expected to return to the lineup tonight. 

The Hawks ended a six-game losing streak with a shocking 99-94 win at Utah as 13.5-point underdogs last time out.  Dennis Schroeder had a career-high 41 points in the win.  Off such a big victory, it’s only human nature for the Hawks to suffer a letdown here against the Kings their next time out. 

Home-court advantage has been big in this series as the home team is a perfect 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Sacramento is 8-1 ATS in its last nine vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The Kings are 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  Take the Kings Thursday. 

25* Sweet 16 GAME OF THE YEAR on Kentucky -5.5 

The Kansas State Wildcats caught a lucky break getting UMBC in the Round of 32 after the Retrievers upset Virginia in the biggest upset in tournament history.  They did not play well against UMBC, and were fortunate to come away with a sloppy 50-43 victory as 10-point favorites.  Their luck runs out in the Sweet 16. 

Now they have to go up against the buzz saw that is Kentucky.  In typical John Calipari fashion, his young team has gotten better as the season has progressed and they have hit their stride.  Indeed, the Wildcats are 9-1 SU & 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  And now they are only being asked to lay 5.5 points to a middling Big 12 team that was fortunate just to get into the NCAA Tournament. 

Not only have the Wildcats been winning during this run, they’ve been dominating.  Seven of their nine wins have come by double-digits, including victories over fellow NCAA Tournament teams Alabama (by 10), Arkansas (by 15), Missouri (by 21), Alabama (by 23) and Buffalo (by 20).  This game against Kansas State is actually a step down in class compared to what they’ve been up against recently. 

Kentucky is 31-15-5 ATS in their last 51 neutral site games, including 7-1 ATS in neutral site games this season.  Kansas State is 1-5 ATS in its last six non-conference games.  Bet Kentucky Thursday. 

20* Texas A&M/Michigan Sweet 16 No-Brainer on Michigan -2.5 

The line value is clearly with Michigan in this one.  Texas A&M was a 7-point underdog North Carolina in its last game.  But after its best game of the season, it is now just a 2.5-point underdog to Michigan.  I look at UNC and Michigan as pretty equal teams, if anything the Wolverines are better. 

After their best game of the season, obviously the Aggies are overvalued right now.  And couple that with the fact that the Wolverines are coming off a fortunate buzzer-beating win over Houston, and it’s easy to see why this line has been adjusted so much.  But I think it’s too much, and Michigan is more than 2.5 points better than Texas A&M on a neutral. 

I think North Carolina was overrated and Houston was underrated as well.  That was a rare test for Michigan here to close out the season.  The Wolverines have been dominating, going 11-0 SU & 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  Nine of those 11 wins have come by 9 points or more, including victories over the best in the Big Ten in Ohio State (by 12), Michigan State (by 11) and Purdue (by 9). 

Texas A&M is 0-7 ATS after allowing 30 points or less in the first half of two straight games overall rate last two seasons.  The Aggies are 3-11 ATS after scoring 85 points or more over the last three years.  Texas A&M is 2-9 ATS in road games after having won four of their last five games over the last two seasons.  The Wolverines are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 neutral site games.  The Aggies are 7-22-1 ATS in their last 30 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.  Take Michigan Thursday. 

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Orlando Magic +8 

The Orlando Magic have continued to play for pride.  They beat Milwaukee, and gave both Boston and Toronto a run for their money in their last three games.  Well, Toronto and Boston are the two best teams in the East.  Now they play another Eastern Conference playoff team in Philadelphia and are catching 8 points at home tonight. 

The 76ers are being overvalued coming off four consecutive victories.  But this is a tough spot for them as they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 8 days.  I don’t believe they’ll have much left in the tank for the Magic tonight. 

Philadelphia is 4-12 ATS in road games after playing a home game this season.  The Magic are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games following a loss.  The 76ers are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 road games.  Philadelphia is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 Thursday games.  Orlando is 14-6 ATS in its last 20 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  Bet the Magic Thursday. 

15* Utah/St. Mary’s NIT Late-Night BAILOUT on Utah +7 

The way the Utah Utes are playing to close out the season, they certainly should not be 7-point underdogs to St. Mary’s with a trip to Madison Square Garden on the line tonight.  The Utes are 8-2 SU & 6-3-1 ATS in their last 10 games, and 11-4 SU & 9-4-2 ATS in their last 15. 

There’s no question the Utes are the more rested team here after they made easy work of LSU in a 95-71 victory on Monday.  Meanwhile, the Gaels were in a dog fight with Washington in an 85-81 victory as 11-point favorites.  And Utah is a better team that Washington in my opinion. 

The Gaels aren’t playing well enough down the stretch to warrant being 7-point favorites, either.  They are still disappointed they didn’t make the NCAA Tournament.  They have gone just 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall, consistently being overvalued by oddsmakers. 

These teams have played six games against common opponents this season.  Utah has gone 5-1 in those games and outscored those teams by an average of 10.3 points per game.  St. Mary’s has gone 4-2 in those games while only outscoring those teams by 3.7 points per game.  Common opponents are a great way to compare teams, and it shows that Utah is actually the better team in this matchup. 

Utah is 8-2 ATS off a home win by 10 points or more this season.  The Utes are 6-0 ATS after a game where they made 13 or more 3-point shots over the last three years.  St. Mary’s is 3-11 ATS when playing with one or less days’ rest this season.  The Gaels are 1-7 ATS vs. good defensive teams that allow 42% shooting or less this season.  St. Mary’s is 1-5 ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Utah Wednesday. 

20* Raptors/Cavs ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on Cleveland -1.5 

The Cleveland Cavaliers have won three of their last four games with their lone loss coming at red-hot Portland.  They are rested having yesterday off and will be highly motivated for a victory tonight with the top team in the Eastern Conference coming to town.  They want to show that they are still the kings of the East. 

This is a very tough rest situation for the Raptors.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, their 5th game in 7 days, and their 10th game in 16 days.  That’s about as difficult as it gets in terms of rest situations.  Plus, the Raptors could be without two key players in DeMar DeRozan and Fred VanVleet, who are both questionable with thigh and wrist injuries, respectively. 

Cleveland is 8-1 SU & 6-3 ATS in its last nine home meetings with Toronto.  Rarely will you get the opportunity to back the Cavs as this small of a home favorite, so we’ll take advantage tonight.  The Raptors are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games when playing on 0 days’ rest.  Bet the Cavaliers Wednesday. 

20* Rockets/Blazers TNT GAME OF THE MONTH on Portland +5 

What more do the Portland Trail Blazers have to do to get some respect?  They have gone 15-1 SU & 14-2 ATS in their last 16 games overall.  And yet they’re still 5-point home underdogs to the Houston Rockets tonight. 

The Blazers have really some some damage at home.  They are 18-1 SU & 17-2 ATS in their last 19 home games.  It will be a packed house with the Houston Rockets coming to town tonight.  Look for the Blazers to pull off the upset, though we’ll take the points for some added insurance. 

I question Houston’s motivation the rest of the way.  The Rockets basically have the No. 1 seed in the West wrapped up.  They are 3.5 games ahead of the Warriors, who are without Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Kevin Durant right now.  They know they can basically coast to the finish line now and still get the No. 1 seed. 

The Blazers are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Rockets are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the Blazers Tuesday. 

15* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans -8.5 

The New Orleans Pelicans are on a mission to make the playoffs.  They are currently the No. 7 seed in the West at 40-30 on the season, but they are just 2.5 games ahead of 9th place L.A. Clippers.  They cannot afford to take any teams lightly the rest of the way, and they certainly haven’t been. 

Indeed, the Pelicans are playing their best basketball of the season right now.  They are 12-4 SU & 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games overall.  Two of those losses came without Anthony Davis, who is back healthy and playing at an MVP level.  They just blasted Boston 108-89 at home last time out. 

The Mavericks are not healthy and have nothing to play for.  Both Dennis Smith Jr. and Wesley Matthews are out, while Jose Barea is questionable.  The Mavs are just 22-48 on the season, including 8-26 on the road.  The Pelicans just beat the Mavs 126-109 on the road as 3.5-point favorites on March 4th, and now they get them at home this time around. 

Dallas is 2-10 ATS vs. teams who allow 110 or more points per game this season.  The Pelicans are 6-1 ATS in their last seven vs. a team with a losing record.  Roll with the Pelicans Tuesday. 

15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +10.5 

I question the motivation of the Toronto Raptors the rest of the way.  They have a 5-game lead over the Boston Celtics for the No. 1 seed in the East.  And now the Celtics are playing without Kyrie Irving, Marcus Smart and Jaylen Brown.  They Celtics are basically locked in to the No. 2 seed. 

The Magic have played tough in their last two games, upsetting Milwaukee 126-117 as 10-point home underdogs, and giving Boston a battle at home as 7-point underdogs.  They will certainly show up for the Toronto Raptors tonight, and they’ll be rested.   

The Magic have had the last three days off and come in fresh.  The spot is a bad one for Toronto, which has a road game on deck tomorrow against Cleveland and will likely be looking ahead to that matchup.  The Raptors won’t give the Magic their full attention, and that will allow the Magic to hang tough for four quarters. 

Orlando is 22-10 ATS as an underdog of 10 or more points over the last three seasons.  Plays on home teams (Orlando) - revenging a home loss vs. opponent of 10 points or more, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 36-13 (73.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Magic Tuesday. 

20* Pistons/Kings NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento +3.5 

The Sacramento Kings have been flying under the radar for weeks.  They have gone 5-5 SU but 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  They have beaten the Warriors and Heat outright as underdogs, while also giving teams like Utah and Oklahoma City a run for their money on the road during this stretch. 

The Detroit Pistons have basically packed it in.  They are now 6.5 games out of 8th place in the East and won’t be making the playoffs.  They simply cannot be favored on the road tonight with the way they are playing right now.  The Pistons are 3-13 SU in their last 16 games and 3-14 ATS in their last 17 games. 

The Kings are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a loss.  Sacramento is 5-0 ATS in its last five home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Detroit is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 road games.  The Pistons are 0-3-2 ATS in the last five meetings.  These four trends combine for a 22-1 system backing the home team tonight.  Bet the Kings Monday. 

15* Warriors/Spurs ESPN Monday No-Brainer on San Antonio -7 

The San Antonio Spurs have faced some adversity here of late and have responded well.  Just a few days ago they were in 9th place in the West and in jeopardy of missing the playoffs for the first time since 1996-97.  They have gotten healthy and played some of their best basketball this past week. 

Indeed, the Spurs are 3-00 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games.  They beat the Magic by 36 at home, the Pelicans by 5 at home and the Timberwolves by 16 at home.  This run has coincided with the healthy returns of both LaMarcus Aldridge and Rudy Gay to the lineup, among others. 

The Warriors are in terrible shape right now.  They are missing their top three scorers in Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Kevin Durant.  They are also without key role player Omri Casspi.  It’s no wonder the Warriors are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight games overall. 

The Spurs are 11-3 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points this season.  The Warriors are 0-6 ATS in their last six games following a win.  Golden State is 1-7 ATS in its last eight road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Take the Spurs Monday. 

15* NIT Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on Stanford +8 

The Stanford Cardinal have been one of the most underrated teams in the Pac-12 all season.  They have gone 14-6 ATS in their 20 games in 2018, which has been the bulk of their Pac-12 season and into the NIT with their 86-83 win over BYU last week.  Now they are catching 8 points against Oklahoma State, which is too much. 

The Cowboys felt like they should have made the NCAA Tournament with the way they played down the stretch.  But they didn’t get in, and I have to question their motivation playing in this ‘consolation’ tournament.  They did beat Florida Gulf Coast 80-68 as 11-point favorites in their opener, but now they take a big step up in class tonight. 

The Cowboys are just 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. Pac-12 opponents.  The Cardinal are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a win.  Stanford is 4-1 ATS in its last five vs. a team with a winning record.  The Cardinal are 11-4 ATS when playing just their 2nd game in a week this season.  Stanford is 32-15 ATS in its last 47 road games off a win by 6 points or less.  Roll with Stanford Monday. 

20* Blazers/Clippers NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -2 

Note: I’m writing this analysis on Saturday night.  I’m taking the Los Angeles Clippers largely because of the situation.  The Blazers will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days here, while the Clippers had Saturday off and will be rested. 

I think the Blazers are overvalued right now due to their NBA-high 11-game winning streak, which would extend to 12 if they are to beat the Pistons as expected at home as 8.5-point favorites Saturday night.  They are starting to get a lot of love from the betting public and thus the oddsmakers, and this is a great spot to fade them. 

Meanwhile, the Clippers have been flying way under the radar.  They have gone 14-7 in their last 21 games overall and are on the verge of making the playoffs at 37-31 on the season.  They are only 1.5 games back of 8th place in the West.  They need this victory more, and they’ll be hungry off back-to-back tough losses at Houston and Oklahoma City in which they had a chance to win both games in the closing minutes. 

The Clippers have won four of their last five meetings with the Blazers.  The Blazers have had the luxury of playing eight of their last nine games at home as this will be just their 2nd road game since February 24th. They barely won 108-103 over the Lakers in their lone road game during this stretch.  They won’t be so fortunate against these pesky Clippers tonight.  Bet the Clippers Sunday.

20* Marshall/West Virginia CBB Late-Night BAILOUT on Marshall +12.5 

Marshall showed the world what they were capable of when they won 81-75 over Wichita State in the opening round as 13.5-point underdogs.  It was just the fruits of head coach Dan D’Antoni’s labor.  This is one of the most dangerous teams in the tournament because of how well they shoot the ball in D’Antoni’s system. 

The Thundering Herd are a tough team to prepare for because they spread you out and shoot 28 3-pointers pe game.  The result has been a high-octane offense that averages 84.2 points per game.  The Thundering Herd’s top six scorers this season all shot 32.5% or better from 3-point range, led by Jon Elmore (22.8 ppg, 6.9 apg, 6.0 rpg), C.J. Burks (20.5 ppg) and Ajdin Penava (15.5 ppg, 8.5 rpg, 3.9 bpg). 

I think you throw in the rivalry element here and Marshall won’t just be satisfied with beating Wichita State.  Now they want to upset their ‘big brother’ in West Virginia, which has decided to end the yearly rivalry unless Marshall agrees to play in Morgantown every year.  The Thundering Herd would love nothing more than to exact their revenge here and end the Mountaineers’ season. 

Marshall is a perfect 10-0 ATS when playing with one or less days’ rest this season.  I think the lack of time for opponents to prepare for them has worked in their favor all season, and it will certainly be an advantage for them here against West Virginia.  The Thundering Herd got to play the early game in this San Diego regional on Friday and got to watch West Virginia play afterward, which is also an advantage.  Bet Marshall Sunday. 

15* FSU/Xavier CBB Sunday No-Brainer on Xavier -5.5 

The Xavier Musketeers aren’t getting the same respect that some of these other top seeds are getting.  That is evident here as they are only 5.5-point favorites over Florida State in the Round of 32.  I’ll certainly trust backing the veteran Musketeers over this young Florida State squad every time. 

Xavier is an elite offensive team that just put up 102 points on Texas Southern in their opener.  They are scoring 84.8 points per game this season on 49.3% shooting as a team.  That’s bad news for a Florida State team that has allowed 73 or more points in 18 of its last 20 games overall. 

Leonard Hamilton has been known as a defensive coach in his time at Florida State, but he clearly hasn’t gotten his players to respond on that end this season.  They give up 73.8 points per game on the year.  And they could be without one of their best players in Terrance Mann (12.8 ppg, 5.6 rpg), who suffered a groin injury against Missouri and is very questionable to play Sunday. 

These teams met last year in the NCAA Tournament with Xavier winning 91-66, and I believe we will see a similar result here.  The Musketeers are 24-6-2 ATS in their last 32 NCAA Tournament games.  The Seminoles are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a win.  Roll with Xavier Sunday. 

15* Syracuse/Michigan State Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Michigan State -8 

Give Syracuse credit for pulling off two straight upsets over Arizona State and TCU to get here after most doubted they should even be in the NCAA Tournament.  But now playing their 3rd game in 5 days is too tall of a task to ask of them to even be competitive against a team the caliber of Michigan State. 

The Spartans have a massive home-court edge here with this game being played in Detroit, Michigan.  And I also believe this line is lower than it should be because the final score against Bucknell (82-78) was much closer than the game was.  The Spartans actually led by 16 with only a few minutes left before Bucknell got hot from the 3-point line. 

This is a Michigan State team that has only been beaten four times all season.  They have gone 30-4 with their four losses coming to Duke, Ohio State and Michigan (twice).  Syracuse isn’t in the same class as those three teams, and that will show up on the scoreboard today. 

Syracuse is 1-8 ATS in road games after two straight games committing 11 or fewer turnovers over the last three seasons.  Michigan State is 19-14 ATS when playing just its 2nd game in 8 days over the last three years.  The Orange are 2-11 ATS in road games vs. teams who make 8 or more 3-point shots per game over the last two seasons.  The Spartans are 14-2 ATS vs. poor passing teams who average 12 or fewer assists per game over the last three years.  Take Michigan State Sunday. 

15* Timberwolves/Spurs NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on San Antonio -4 

The San Antonio Spurs find themselves barely clinging on to the No. 8 seed in the Western Conference.  They are 39-30 and just one game ahead of the Nuggets.  They are in jeopardy of missing the playoffs for the first time since the 1996-97 season.  It’s safe to say the Spurs will be highly motivated for a victory tonight at home against the Timberwolves. 

"Yeah, it's a live or die for us right now,” LaMarcus Aldridge told reporters. "So, you know, you've got to bring it every game. And these teams that we're going to play, they're fighting for their position, and their lives too. So tonight was tough, but guys competed and just made plays."

The Spurs went through a rough patch recently due to all their injuries, but they have gotten healthy and it’s no surprise they have gone 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS in their last two games since.  They beat the Magic by 36 as 10.5-point home favorites and the Pelicans by 5 as 4.5-point home favorites. 

San Antonio is 25-8 at home this season, while Minnesota is just 14-21 on the road.  This is a very short price to be laying with the Spurs tonight.  That’s especially the case when you consider the Spurs are 24-1 SU in their last 25 home meetings with the Timberwolves. 

Minnesota is 1-9 ATS in road games vs. teams who force 14 or fewer turnovers this season.  The Timberwolves are 0-5 ATS in their last five games when playing on three or more days’ rest.  Minnesota is 4-12 ATS in its last 16 road games.  The favorite is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings.  Take the Spurs Saturday. 

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Kansas -4.5 

The Kansas Jayhawks played their best basketball of the season down the stretch.  It looked like their Big 12 title winning streak was in jeopardy late in the season, but they sucked it up and have gone 9-1 SU & 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games.  The Jayhawks cruised through the Big 12 Tournament with three straight double-digit victories in arguably the toughest conference in the country.   

They even did it without star center Udoka Azubuike (13.7 ppg, 7.1 rpg).  Their guards in Graham, Mykhailiuk, Newman and Vick really stepped up in his absence.  After missing their 76-60 win over Pennsylvania Thursday, Azubuike is expected back for this game against Seton Hall, which is going to make them a very dangerous team moving forward. 

Kansas clearly is getting overlooked among the No. 1 seeds.  That was evident as they were only 13.5-point favorites over Penn, and now they only 4.5-point favorites over Seton Hall.  This despite that fact that they have a huge home-court advantage with this game being played in Wichita, KS.  I think the price is too cheap to pass up Saturday. 

I really like this Seton Hall team, but I think they are in over their heads here.  They didn’t fare so well when they took a step up in competition this season.  They went 0-4 against Villanova and Xavier this year, losing by an average of 9.5 points per game in those matchups.  Kansas is as good or better than both of those teams. 

Seton Hall played after Kansas on Thursday, which is an advantage for the Jayhawks getting to see the Pirates play afterward.  And the Pirates were in a shootout with their 94-83 win over NC State, which will have taken more out of them.  Seton Hall is 0-8 ATS after playing a game where both teams scored 80 points or more over the last two seasons.  Kansas is 8-0 ATS in road games after having won four of their last five games this season.  The Jayhawks are 8-0-1 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Kansas is 4-0 ATS in its last four non-conference games.  These four trends combine for a perfect 28-0 system backing the Jayhawks.  Take Kansas Saturday. 

20* Rockets/Pelicans NBA Saturday No-Brainer on New Orleans +7.5 

The New Orleans Pelicans are playing well enough to beat the Houston Rockets tonight.  The Pelicans are 11-3 in their last 14 games overall.  Two of their losses came without Anthony Davis, but he’s back healthy now and this team will get back to how they were playing during their 10-game winning streak. 

The Rockets see what’s going on with the injuries at Golden State and it would only be human nature for them to relax.  The Warriors are without Steph Curry, Klay Thompson and Kevin Durant right now among others.  They just lost at home to the Kings last night, and they are no longer a threat to the No. 1 seed to the Rockets.  The Rockets have a 2.5-game lead over the Warriors and basically have it locked up now. 

The Pelicans have played the Rockets tough in their two meetings this season.  They upset the Rockets 115-113 as 5-point home underdogs, and also covered as 14-point road dogs in a 123-130 loss.  They should not be catching 7.5 points at home tonight to the Rockets. 

New Orleans is 22-8 ATS in its last 30 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. The Pelicans are 9-4 ATS int heir last 13 home meetings with the Rockets.  The underdog is 20-9-1 ATS in the last 30 meetings.  Bet the Pelicans Saturday. 

25* Round of 32 GAME OF THE YEAR on Loyola-Chicago +6 

The Loyola-Chicago Ramblers were one of the most underrated teams in the country this season.  They took over Wichita State’s role of dominating the Missouri Valley.  And indeed they did just that, going 29-5 SU and 18-3 within the conference.  They also went 20-9-1 ATS in their lined games to show just how undervalued they really were.  They beat Florida on the road as 17-point underdogs 65-59 as well to show what they are capable of. 

There’s a lot to like about the Ramblers.  For starters, they are an elite defensive team, giving up just 62.2 points per game on 41.5% shooting.  They are also a tremendous 3-point shooting team, making 39.7% of their attempts this season.  They have seven players who play regularly that shoot 34.8% or better from 3-point range.  And they have a stud big man in Cameron Krutwig (10.5 ppg, 6.3 rpg) who is one of the hardest workers in the country.  They also share the ball very well, averaging 16 assists per game, which has been the key to them shooting 50.6% as a team. 

I think Tennessee is being overvalued here off its 73-47 win over Wright State.  Now they are 6-point favorites here when this line should be closer to a pick ‘em.  It’s hard to trust this Tennessee team because they are such a streaky shooting bunch.  They shoot just 43.9% on the season as a team and rely way too much on contested jumpers. 

Loyola is 8-0 ATS after allowing 30 points or less in the first half of two straight games this season.  Tennessee is 1-7 ATS after two straight games making 78% of their free throws or better this season.  The Ramblers are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Ramblers are 24-8 ATS in their last 32 games following a win.  After winning on a buzzer-beater against Miami, the Ramblers are oozing with confidence and will be a tough out for the Vols tonight.  Bet Loyola-Chicago Saturday. 

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Rhode Island +9.5 

The Rhode Island Rams are getting overlooked in the NCAA Tournament.  That’s because they didn’t win their conference tournament despite dominating the regular season.  They are now 26-7 on the season with four of their seven losses coming by 4 points or less.  They have great senior leadership with EC Matthews and are a very balanced team. 

Duke hasn’t exactly been world beaters this season at 27-7.  The Blue Devils lost to both UNC and VA Tech late in the season.  They have a lot of talent but haven’t exactly put it all together.  I think asking them to have to win by double-digits to cover this spread Saturday is asking too much. 

I also like the fact that Rhode Island got to play the first game of the Round of 64 Thursday with a 12:15 EST tip.  That means after they beat Oklahoma, they got to watch Duke play Iona afterwards.  I always think that’s a huge advantage for the team that played the first game, and it will be a factor here. 

The Rams are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 neutral site games.  Rhode Island is 21-7 ATS in its last 28 road games vs. teams who make 8 or more 3-point shots per game after 15-plus games.  The Rams are 11-4 ATS vs. teams who make 45% of their shots or better this season.  Rhode Island is 13-4 ATS after committing 8 or fewer turnovers in their previous game over the last three years.  Mike Krzyzewski is 9-19 ATS as a neutral court favorite of 9.5 to 12 points as the coach of Duke.  Roll with Rhode Island Saturday. 

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Sacramento Kings +12 

The Golden State Warriors are an absolute mash unit right now.  They will be without both Klay Thompson and Stephen Curry.  They could be without Kevin Durant, who is questionable with a rib injury.  And Draymond Green is battling a shoulder injury that forced him to miss the last game. 

The Kings have been undervalued for weeks now.  They are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall.  They have only lost twice by double-digits during this stretch.  Given the injury situation for the Warriors, the Kings have the potential to pull off the upset, just as they did back on November 27th in a 110-106 win at Golden State as similar 12.5-point dogs. 

Plays on underdogs of 10 or more points (Sacramento) - a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) against a horrible defensive team (102-plus PPG), after allowing 105 points or more are 41-12 (77.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  

The Kings are 5-0 ATS in their last five after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  Sacramento is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 road games.  The Warriors are 14-30 ATS in their last 44 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  Golden State is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games overall.  The Warriors are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a win.  Bet the Kings Friday. 

15* Syracuse/TCU Late-Night BAILOUT on TCU -3.5 

The TCU Horned Frogs get the advantage of having plenty of time off to get ready for the NCAA Tournament.  They had won four straight before losing their final two games, a 75-79 loss at Texas Tech in the regular season finale and a 64-66 (OT) loss to Kansas State in their first game of the Big 12 Tournament. 

The Horned Frogs come in undervalued because of those two tough closes losses.  And they got to watch Syracuse play on Wednesday and scout them, which is also a big advantage.  Now they will be ready for that Syracuse zone, which is similar to the one that they play against Baylor every year. 

And TCU owned Baylor in the two meetings this season.  The Horned Frogs won 81-78 at Baylor as 1.5-point favorites and shot 49.1% from the field.  They also beat Baylor 82-72 at home as 5.5-point favorites and shot 54% from the floor.  Clearly, they have the players and the game plan to attack a zone defense after averaging 81.5 points per game in their two meetings with Baylor this season. 

Syracuse doesn’t even deserve to be in the NCAA Tournament.  They beat Arizona State on Wednesday despite shooting just 40.8% from the field.  That’s because the Sun Devils had an off shooting night at 40.4% themselves.  This a Syracuse team that is shooting just 41.8% on the season.  They don’t have the firepower offensively to match TCU, which averages 83.0 points per game and shoots 49.8% on the season, including 40% from 3-point range. 

The Orange are 7-15 ATS in their last 22 games following a win, including 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games following an ATS win.  The Horned Frogs are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games following a loss.  TCU is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 neutral site games.  Roll with TCU Friday. 

15* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Dallas Mavericks +10.5 

The Toronto Raptors are in a tough situation tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 7th game in 11 days.  It doesn’t get much tougher than that.  Plus, they had to come back from a big deficit in the 4th quarter to beat the Pacers last night.  They won’t have much left in the tank tonight. 

The Dallas Mavericks continue to play for pride.  They have gone 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall with their only loss coming to Houston.  They beat Denver by 11, Memphis by 34 and New York by 13.  This team is much better than it is getting credit for tonight as double-digits road dogs to the Raptors. 

Plays against home teams (Toronto) - off two or more consecutive road wins, when playing on Friday nights are 38-15 (71.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Mavs will be by far the fresher team here as they’ve had two days’ rest in between games having last played on Tuesday. 

Dallas is 18-7-2 ATS in its last 27 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Mavericks are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 road games overall.  Dallas upset Toronto 98-93 as 5.5-point home underdogs in their first meeting this season.  They will give the Raptors a run for their money here again tonight.  Take the Mavericks Friday. 

15* CBB Friday UPSET SHOCKER on Arkansas +1.5 

The Arkansas Razorbacks played really well down the stretch to make the NCAA Tournament.  They went 8-3 SU & 7-3-1 ATS over their final 11 games.  They beat fellow NCAA Tournament teams Florida, Auburn, Alabama and Texas A&M along the way. 

I think Arkansas’ style is perfect for the NCAA Tournament.  They pressure you defensively, forcing 14 turnovers per game while committing just 11 turnovers per game themselves, which is a recipe for success.  They can light it up on offense as they score 81.1 points per game and shoot 40% from 3-point range as a team. 

Butler is not a very good defensive team, and one of their biggest weaknesses is allowing the 3-pointer.  They allow opponents to make 37.4% of their 3-pointers against them this season.  They have small guards that Arkansas studs Jaylen Barford (18.0 ppg, 43.4% 3-pointers) and Daryl Macon (16.9 ppg, 42.9% 3-pointers) will be able to exploit. 

Butler is 0-8 ATS in road games after a game where they made 78% of their free throws or better this season.  The Bulldogs are 0-7 ATS in road games after a combined score of 155 points or more this season.  Butler is 2-12 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season. The Razorbacks are 5-1 ATS int heir last six non-conference games.  Take Arkansas Friday. 

20* CBB Friday Line Mistake on Providence +3.5 

The Providence Friars are a veteran squad that returned all five starters from last year.  That experience certainly paid off down the stretch when the Friars found themselves on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament.  But they played their way in by going 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS over their final six games. 

The Friars beat fellow NCAA Tournament teams Creighton and Xavier in the Big East Tournament.  Then they took Villanova to overtime in the Championship Game.  They also beat Villanova earlier this season.  What they’ve done against those two No. 1 seeds in Villanova and Xavier shows they can play with anyone. 

I really don’t like this Texas A&M team very much.  They were terrible down the stretch, going 3-4 SU & 2-5 ATS in their final seven games with two of those three wins coming by a combined 3 points.  They lost starting point guard Duane Wilson in mid-February and haven’t been the same team since.  They have two stud big men, but their guards are some of the worst in the tournament.  And guards win out in the NCAA Tournament.  I strongly believe the wrong team is favored in this matchup. 

Texas A&M is 1-7 ATS in road games when playing against a good team (60% to 80%) this season.  Providence is 7-1 ATS vs. teams who are called for 17 or fewer fouls per game after 15-plus games this season.  The Friars are 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a winning record.  The Aggies are 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet Providence Friday.

25* Round of 64 GAME OF THE YEAR on Virginia Tech -2 

The turnaround at Virginia Tech under Buzz Williams has been remarkable.  The Hokies were one of the better teams in the ACC this season and finished 21-11.  They beat all the best teams in the ACC, knocking off Duke, Clemson and North Carolina at home, while handing Virginia one of its two losses this season on the road. 

Alabama shouldn’t even be in the NCAA Tournament.  The Crimson Tide went just 19-15 this season.  They went 2-6 over their final eight games, which includes home losses to Arkansas (by 3) and Florida (by 21).  They were blown out by Kentucky 63-86 in their final SEC Tournament game as well. 

While the Hokies play the definition of team basketball, the Crimson Tide rely too heavily on one player in freshman Colin Sexton.  He averages 19.0 points per game, but shoots just 44.4% from the field.  And the Crimson Tide could be without their second-best player in Dante Hall (10.9 ppg, 6.8 rpg, 72.1% FGs), who is battling a concussion and missed their last game against Kentucky. 

Alabama is 0-7 ATS after allowing 85 points or more over the last three seasons.  The Hokies are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following an ATS loss.  Virginia Tech is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games overall.  The Hokies are 5-1 ATS in their last six non-conference games.  Bet Virginia Tech Thursday. 

20* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on San Antonio Spurs -3.5 

The San Antonio Spurs all of a sudden find themselves at 38-30 on the season and in 9th place in the Western Conference.  They are in jeopardy of missing the playoffs for the first time since 1996-97.  It’s safe to say they will be locked in and motivated the rest of the way. 

The Spurs have a chance to get a win against a team they are trailing in the New Orleans Pelicans tonight.  San Antonio has recently gotten healthy as injuries have been a big reason for their struggles of late.  They put it to Orlando 108-72 last time out, and now I expect them to do the same to the Pelicans. 

San Antonio will also be highly motivated for a win to avenge two straight losses to the Pelicans this season. But home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 21-7 ATS in the last 28 meetings.  The Spurs are 24-8 at home this season. 

San Antonio is 13-4 ATS after failing to cover five or six of their last seven against the spread over the last two seasons.  Plays on favorites (San Antonio) - after allowing 75 points or less against opponent after a combined score of 205 points are 29-7 (80.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Spurs Thursday. 

15* NBA Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Indiana Pacers +4 

What more do the Indiana Pacers have to do to get some respect?  They have gone 10-3 SU & 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  They are coming off back-to-back upset road wins at Boston (99-97) as 4.5-point underdogs and at Philadelphia (101-98) as 6-point dogs.   

Now they find themselves catching 4 points at home to the Toronto Raptors tonight.  The Pacers have been great at home all season, going 23-12 SU & 20-15 ATS.  And home-court advantage has been huge in this series.  The home team is a perfect 9-0 SU & 6-3 ATS in their last nine meetings.   

The Pacers are 7-2 ATS in those nine meetings.  They beat the Raptors 107-104 as 2.5-point home underdogs in their first meeting this season.  They only lost 115-120 as 7-point road underdogs in their second meeting. 

Indiana is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 vs. NBA Atlantic Division opponents.  Toronto is 1-5 ATS in its last six road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  The Raptors are 0-4 ATS in their last four trips to Indiana.  Take the Pacers Thursday. 

15* CBB Thursday UPSET SHOCKER on Loyola-Chicago +2 

The Loyola-Chicago Ramblers were one of the most underrated teams in the country this season.  They took over Wichita State’s role of dominating the Missouri Valley.  And indeed they did just that, going 28-5 SU and 18-3 within the conference.  They also went 19-9-1 ATS in their lined games to show just how undervalued they really were.  They beat Florida on the road as 17-point underdogs 65-59 as well to show what they are capable of. 

There’s a lot to like about the Ramblers.  For starters, they are an elite defensive team, giving up just 62.2 points per game on 41.2% shooting.  They are also a tremendous 3-point shooting team, making 39.8% of their attempts this season.  They have six players who play regularly that shoot 37.3% or better from 3-point range.  And they have a stud big man in Cameron Krutwig (10.5 ppg, 6.3 rpg) who is one of the hardest workers in the country.  They also share the ball very well, averaging 16 assists per game. 

The Miami Hurricanes are extremely vulnerable here.  It was a bad look for them in a 17-point loss to North Carolina to get knocked out of the ACC Tournament.  They also lost to New Mexico State 54-63 in non-conference play as 9-point favorites.  Three of their final four wins this season came by a combined 5 points.  I think the Hurricanes are ripe for an upset here. 

Loyola-Chicago is 7-0 ATS in road games after a combined score of 115 points or less over the last three seasons.  Miami is 0-6 ATS vs. good defensive teams that allow 42% shooting or less after 15-plus games this season.  The Ramblers are 13-3 ATS int heir last 16 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Hurricanes are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall.  Miami is 1-5 ATS in its last six NCAA Tournament games.  Roll with Loyola-Chicago Thursday. 

20* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Kansas -13.5 

The Kansas Jayhawks played their best basketball of the season down the stretch.  I looked like their Big 12 title winning streak was in jeopardy late in the season, but they sucked it up and went 8-1 SU & 6-3 ATS in their final nine games. 

The Jayhawks cruised through the Big 12 Tournament with three straight double-digit victories in arguably the toughest conference in the country.  They even did it without star center Udoka Azubuike (13.7 ppg, 7.1 rpg).  Their guards in Graham, Mykhailiuk, Newman and Vick really stepped up in his absence.  But now Azubuike is expected back for the NCAA Tournament, which is going to make them a very dangerous team. 

Kansas clearly is getting overlooked among the No. 1 seeds.  That is evident by the fact that they are only 13.5-point favorites here against Pennsylvania.  It’s only the 2nd time in NCAA Tournament history that a No. 1 seed was favored by 15 points or less against a No. 16 seed.  In fact, No. 1 seeds favored by 20 or less are a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last seven tries.  This is too short of a price to pass up. 

Pennsylvania is getting a lot of love because they shot lights out against suspect competition in Ivy League play down the stretch.  But we saw what happened to them when they faced a No. 1 seed in Villanova back in November.  They lost that game 62-90.  And this game will be played basically on home turf for the Jayhawks in Wichita, KS. 

Pennsylvania is 1-7 ATS off three or more consecutive wins this season.  The Quakers are 1-5 ATS int heir last six NCAA Tournament games.  Kansas is 6-0 ATS when playing its 3rd game in a week this season.  The Jayhawks are 7-0 ATS in road games after having won four of their last five games this season. The Jayhawks are 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Add in the 7-0 system on No. 1 seed favorites of 20 or less, and these last four trends combine for a perfect 27-0 system backing the Jayhawks.  Take Kansas Thursday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Sacramento Kings +7 

This young Sacramento Kings squad continues to play hard.  They aren’t thinking about tanking at all.  That is evidenced with the fact that they’ve gone 3-4 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They took both Oklahoma City and Utah down to the wire in losses, and handled their business against Brooklyn, New York and Orlando. 

Now the Kings face a depleted Miami Heat team that is missing two of its best players.  The Heat will be without stud center Hassan Whiteside and legend Dwyane Wade.  It didn’t go so well without these two the other night in a 16-point loss at Portland. 

The Kings are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a loss.  Sacramento is 4-0 ATS in its last four after allowing 100 points or more in its previous game.  The Kings are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games.  Sacramento is 12-3-1 ATS in its last 16 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  Bet the Kings Wednesday. 

15* NIT Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Stanford -2 

Stanford was a tough out at home all season.  The Cardinal went 13-5 at home this season, and they really turned it on down the stretch.  I think they are being short-changed here as only 2-point home favorites over BYU in their NIT opener. 

Stanford went 7-1 SU in its final eight home games.  That includes wins over Arizona State (by 9), Oregon (by 35) and Washington (by 16).  The only loss suffered by the Cardinal at home during this stretch came against the best team in the Pac-12 in Arizona by a final of 71-73 as 6-point underdogs. 

Stanford is 7-0 ATS in home games vs. good teams who outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game after 15-plus games over the last two seasons.  The Cardinal are 7-1 ATS in home games vs. good shooting teams who make 45% or better this season.  The Cardinal are 8-1 ATS in their last nine home games.  The Cougars are 8-17-2 ATS in their last 27 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Stanford Wednesday. 

15* Arizona State/Syracuse First Four No-Brainer on Arizona State -1.5 

It was a tale of two seasons for the Arizona State Sun Devils.  They went a perfect 12-0 in non-conference action, beating two No. 1 seeds in Kansas and Xavier on the road, as well as topping another NCAA Tournament team in Kansas State. 

But once the Sun Devils got into conference play, other teams had film on them and it was tougher to win playing teams twice a season.  They went just 8-11 within the Pac-12.  But now they get back outside the conference against Syracuse. 

Syracuse is a team that was fortunate to make the NCAA Tournament.  I believe they are one of the worst teams in the field among the bigger conferences.  They lack a scoring punch and certainly did not perform well against the better teams they played.  This is a good matchup for the Sun Devils as they are a great 3-point shooting team, and the key to beating the Syracuse zone is to make 3-pointers. 

Arizona State is 10-1 ATS in non-conference games this season.  The Orange are 2-6 ATS in their last eight neutral site games.  The Sun Devils are 8-2 ATS after scoring 85 points or more this season.  Syracuse is 0-6 ATS in road games vs. teams who make 8 or more 3-point shots per game this season.  Roll with Arizona State Wednesday. 

15* Nuggets/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +2 

The Lakers are playing their best basketball of the season right now as they continue to fight to make the playoffs.  They are 15-7 SU in their last 22 games overall, including a 127-113 home victory over the Cleveland Cavaliers last time out. 

I love this spot for the Lakers, too.  Their last loss came at Denver on March 9th just a few days ago by a final of 116-125.  Now they don’t have to wait long for revenge just four days later, and it will be at home this time around. 

The Nuggets should not be road favorites here considering they are just 11-20 SU & 12-17-2 ATS on the highway this season.  Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as well.  The home team is a perfect 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. 

The Lakers are 10-1 ATS off a home win by 10 points or more this season.  Los Angeles is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 home games.  The Lakers are 8-1 ATS in their last nine home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The Nuggets are 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 games following a win by more than 10 points.  Take the Lakers Tuesday. 

15* St. Bonaventure/UCLA First Four No-Brainer on St. Bonaventure +3.5 

St. Bonaventure played its best basketball of the season down the stretch to earn an at-large bid into the NCAA Tournament.  The Bonnies went 13-1 over their final 14 games, which includes wins over both Rhode Island and Davidson, who fellow NCAA Tournament teams. 

I am very down on the Pac-12 this season, and so is the NCAA Tournament committee.  The conference got just three teams into the NCAA Tournament, which is the same number as the Atlantic 10.  And this UCLA team isn’t nearly as good as the one last year with Lonzo Ball and company.  The Bruins are ripe for the upset here. 

St. Bonaventure returned four starters this season and a veteran group.  They are led by the most underrated guard duo in the country in Jaylen Adams (19.8 ppg, 5.4 apg, 45.7% 3-pointers) and Matt Mobley (18.5 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 38.3% 3-pointers).  Guards win out in the NCAA Tournament, and the Bonnies are equipped to make a run. 

The Bonnies are 12-3 ATS in road games after allowing 80 points or more over the last three seasons.  The Bruins are 9-22 ATS after having won two of their last three games over the past three years.  UCLA is 5-13 ATS in its last 18 games following a loss.  The Bonnies are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following an ATS loss.  Roll with St. Bonaventure Tuesday. 

20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans -5 

The New Orleans Pelicans will be highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They have lost two straight to Washington and Utah coming in.  Fortunately for them, they get the opportunity to face the struggling Charlotte Hornets to get back on track tonight. 

The Pelicans are still 10-2 SU & 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  They are playing at an extremely fast tempo and putting pressure not their opponents.  Now they’re up against a Hornets defense that has been lacking to say the least. 

The Hornets are just 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  They have given up 110 or more points in five of those six games, and an average of 119.2 points per game.  That spells trouble for the Hornets, who are better off tanking the rest of the way because they aren’t in playoff contention. 

Charlotte is 0-8 ATS off three or more consecutive overs this season.  The Hornets are 1-10 ATS after allowing 105 points or more in three straight games this Eason.  Charlotte is 3-21 ATS vs. teams who force 14 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  New Orleans is 6-0 ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Hornets are 0-8 ATS in their last eight vs. Western Conference foes.  These five trends combine for a 53-4 system backing the home team tonight.  Bet the Pelicans Tuesday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Sacramento Kings +12.5 

The Thunder just have a way of playing to the level of their competition.  They cannot be trusted tonight to put away the Sacramento Kings by 13 points or more, which is what it would take to cover this spread. 

That’s especially the case with some of the injuries they are dealing with right now.  Perhaps the most underrated big man in the league in Steven Adams, and he’s questionable with an ankle injury.  Guard Terrance Ferguson is out tonight with a concussion. 

The Kings have played the Thunder extremely tough in their three meetings this season.  The Kings are 3-0 ATS in those three games, winning by 8 at home, losing by 3 at home, and losing by 7 on the road. 

The Kings are 4-0 ATS in their last four games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game.  Sacramento is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games following a loss.  Oklahoma City is 1-8 ATS in its last nine Monday games.  The Thunder are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following an ATS win. 

Plays on underdogs of 10 or more points (Sacramento) - a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) against a horrible defensive team (102+ PPG), after allowing 105 points or more are 40-12 (76.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Kings Monday. 

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Dallas Mavericks +10 

There is going to be a hangover factor here Sunday with the Houston Rockets.  They just had their 17-game winning streak snapped on Friday with a 105-108 loss in Toronto.  It will be hard for them to get up for this game now that their streak has ended. 

The Rockets shouldn’t be double-digit road favorites here even if they were healthy.  But they aren’t even healthy as they will be playing without their best player and likely league MVP James Harden due to a knee injury.  Sharpshooter Ryan Anderson is also out with a hip injury. 

I think the books are putting too much stock into this being the 2nd of a back-to-back for the Mavericks.  But they’ll be fresh not only because they crushed Memphis 114-80 yesterday, but also because they had three days off prior to that game.  So I believe the back-to-back to be a non-issue here. 

The Mavericks are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five games when playing on 0 days’ rest.  Dallas is 24-9 ATS in its last 33 Sunday games.  Houston is 0-5 ATS in its last five games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Rockets are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games following a loss.  Take the Mavericks Sunday. 

20* Kentucky/Tennessee SEC Championship No-Brainer on Tennessee -1.5 

The Tennessee Vols are the better team in this matchup.  They were the second-best team in the SEC all season, and I believe they prove they are the best now with Auburn getting knocked out.  This team has been grossly underrated all year. 

The Vols are 25-7 SU & 18-12 ATS this season, including 12-5 SU & 12-5 ATS in all road/neutral games.  The Vols have won six straight coming in, including their impressive 84-66 win over Arkansas yesterday.  Tennessee beat Kentucky in both regular season meetings by 11 at home and by 2 on the road. 

Kentucky is getting too much respect for its 86-63 win over Alabama yesterday.  But that was a gassed Alabama team playing their 3rd game in 3 days.  It was also a short-handed one as the Crimson Tide were missing a couple key players. 

Kentucky is 2-11 ATS in road games off two straight wins over conference opponents over the last two seasons.  The Vols are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 neutral site games.  The Vols are 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings with the Wildcats.  Bet Tennessee Sunday. 

20* USC/Arizona Pac-12 Late-Night BAILOUT on Arizona -3 

The Arizona Wildcats have regrouped amidst the Sean Millers news that he reportedly knew about a $100,000 payment to his top recruit.  But Miller strongly denied the report, and the Wildcats have seemed to really play for him in their last few games. 

The Wildcats are 4-0 in their last four games since the report.  They beat Stanford by 8, Cal by 11, Colorado by 16 and UCLA by 11.  Of course, it helped that they got Alonzo Trier (19.0 ppg) back from a suspension just in time for this four-game run.  And their stud forward DeAndre Ayton (19.6 ppg, 11.2 rag) is playing like a man possessed. 

I just don’t trust USC without Bennie Boatright to be able to beat a team the caliber of Arizona.  The Trojans have had the easier path to get here and are overvalued as a result, beating Oregon State and Oregon. 

Arizona is 10-2 SU & 9-3 ATS in its last 12 meetings with USC, winning seven times by double-digits.  That includes their 81-67 home win in their lone meetings with the Trojans this season. 

Arizona is 10-1 ATS vs. teams who commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game after 15-plus games over the last two seasons.  The Wildcats are 9-1 ATS in road games after covering two of their last three against the spread over the last two years.  Bet Arizona Saturday. 

20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Miami Heat -4.5 

I love the spot for the Miami Heat tonight.  They will be out for revenge from a 113-117 loss at Washington just a few days ago on March 6th.  Now they get the Wizards at home this time around. 

They also get to play a tired Washington team that will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a win in New Orleans last night.  These two angles make the Heat and easy choice as only 4.5-point home favorites here Saturday. 

Miami is 30-15 ATS when revenging a same season loss over the last two seasons.  The Heat are 20-5 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last two years.  Miami is 8-1-2 ATS in its last 11 games overall.  Bet the Heat Saturday. 

15* WVU/Kansas Big 12 No-Brainer on West Virginia -1.5 

West Virginia will be highly motivated for revenge on Kansas after losing both meetings to the Jayhawks in the regular season.  And they’ll have a distinct advantage this time around as they are fully healthy, while Kansas is not. 

The Jayhawks have been able to get by two middle-of-the-pack Big 12 teams in Oklahoma State and Kansas State without their best player.  But they won’t be able to get by West Virginia without Udoka Azubuike (13.7 ppg, 7.1 rpg).   

The Mountaineers will own the Jayhawks on the glass and in the paint in this one, which will be the key to victory.  West Virginia is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Roll with West Virginia Saturday. 

15* Arkansas/Tennessee SEC ANNIHILATOR on Tennessee -3 

The Tennessee Vols will be the more rested team here as they had a double-bye and only had to play one game in the SEC Tournament thus far.  They are the better team as it is and should be more than a 3-point favorite against Arkansas. 

Meanwhile, the Razorbacks are coming off two grueling wins over South Carolina and Florida by 5 and 8 points, respectively.  And they play a pressing style that will wear them out and make it very tough to play well in their 3rd game in 3 days today. 

Tennessee wants revenge from a 93-95 loss as 5-point underdogs at Arkansas in their lone meeting this season.  The Vols are 14-5 in SEC play and have won five straight games coming in. 

Tennessee is 6-0 ATS after allowing 25 points or less in the first half of last game this season.  The Vols are 9-0 ATS vs. teams who commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  They are winning by 14.0 points per game on average in this spot.  Take Tennessee Saturday. 

20* Warriors/Blazers NBA Saturday No-Brainer on Portland +1.5 

The Golden State Warriors have all kinds of injury issues right now.  Stephen Curry will miss a couple games with an ankle injury.  Jordan Bell and Patrick McCaw are out, Andre Iguodala and David West are questionable, and Klay Thompson is battling a hip injury. 

Making matters worse for the Warriors tonight is the fact that they’ll be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back following a hard-fought 110-107 home victory over the Spurs last night.  The Warriors needed to exert a lot of energy to outscore the Spurs 32-20 in the 4th quarter to escape with the victory. 

Now they must deal with one of the hottest teams in the NBA in the Portland Trail Blazers, who have gone 8-0 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.  Not to mention, Portland is 14-1 SU & 12-2-1 ATS in its last 15 home games.  Take the Blazers Friday. 

20* SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on Florida -3.5 

Florida has the rest advantage in this one after receiving a double-bye.  The Gators last played on March 3rd in an impressive 80-67 home win over Kentucky.  They’ll be rested and ready to go tonight after closing the season on a three-game winning streak of Auburn, Alabama and Kentucky. 

The same cannot be said for Arkansas, which played yesterday and was in a dog fight with South Carolina.  The Razorbacks won 69-64 as 5-point favorites. 

Florida has owned Arkansas.  The Gators are 8-0 SU in their last eight meetings with the Razorbacks.  They are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings, winning by 18, 13, 9 and 7 points, respectively. 

The Razorbacks are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a winning % above .400.  The Gators are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Take Florida Friday. 

15* UCLA/Arizona Pac-12 ANNIHILATOR on Arizona -4.5 

The Arizona Wildcats have regrouped amidst the Sean Miller news that he reportedly knew about a $100,000 payment to his top recruit.  But Miller has strongly denied the report, and the Wildcats have seemed to really play for him here in their last few games. 

The Wildcats are 3-0 in their last three games since the report.  They beat Stanford by 8, Cal by 11 and then Colorado by 16 in their Pac-12 Tournament opener.   

Of course, it helped that they got Alonzo Trier (19.0 ppg) back from a suspension just in time for these last three games.  And their stud forward DeAndre Ayton (19.6 ppg, 11.2 rpg) is playing like a man possessed. 

The Bruins are 1-6 ATS in their last seven Friday games.  Arizona is 9-1 ATS vs. teams who commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game after 15-plus games over the last two seasons.  Roll with Arizona Friday. 

20* AAC GAME OF THE MONTH on Tulsa -4 

The Tulsa Golden Hurricane are playing excellent basketball down the stretch.  They have gone 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall with their only loss coming 74-82 at Cincinnati as 16-point underdogs. 

Now Tulsa enters the AAC Tournament with momentum and rested having last played on March 4th.  The same cannot be said for Memphis, which barely escaped with a 79-77 win over South Florida as 9-point favorites yesterday. 

Things are not good at Memphis right now.  There are rumors that Tubby Smith will be fired and replaced by Penny Hardaway.  And their best player in Jeremiah Martin (18.9 ppg) suffered a season-ending ankle injury in late February. 

Tulsa is 7-1 ATS vs. teams who are called for 17 or fewer fouls per game this season.  Memphis is 1-9 ATS revenging a loss where they scored 60 points or less over the last three years.  Tulsa beat Memphis 64-51 at home in their last meeting.  Bet Tulsa Friday. 

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Miami Heat +1 

The Miami Heat should not be home underdogs to the Philadelphia 76ers tonight.  The 76ers are just 15-19 on the road this season and should not be getting this much respect from oddsmakers. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series.  The home team is 8-0 SU in the last eight meetings.  Miami is 6-0 SU in its last six home meetings with Philadelphia. 

The 76ers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 Thursday games.  Philadelphia is 2-7-1 ATS in its last 10 road games.  The Heat are 7-1-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  Miami is 12-2-2 ATS in its last 16 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Take the Heat Thursday. 

15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Mississippi State -1.5 

With revenge fresh in their minds and being a bubble team for the NCAA Tournament, the Mississippi State Bulldogs will be highly motivated for a victory here against LSU in their SEC Tournament opener. 

LSU mopped the floor with Mississippi State 78-57 at home in their regular season finale.  But that result was an aberration, and I agree with oddsmakers making the Bulldogs the favorite in the rematch because they are simply the better team and have been all season. 

Mississippi State is 9-1 ATS off a road loss by 10 points or more over the last three seasons.  LSU is 0-6 ATS off a win by 10 points or more over a conference opponent over the last two seasons.  Bet Mississippi State Thursday. 

15* SEC Tournament PLAY OF THE DAY on Missouri -4 

The Missouri Tigers have a few key advantages here.  Not the least of which is that this will basically be a home game for them played in St. Louis, Missouri.  They also get Michael Porter Jr. into the lineup, the top recruit in the country for the SEC Tournament. 

Then there’s the rest advantage with Missouri playing their first SEC Tournament game while Georgia had to play yesterday in a 78-62 win over Vanderbilt.  The Tigers will be the fresher team, and they should win going away because of it. 

Missouri crushed Georgia 68-56 in its lone meeting with the Bulldogs this season.  Georgia is 6-15 ATS after covering two of their last three against the spread over the last two seasons.  The Bulldogs are 5-18 ATS vs. teams who shoot 45% or better and give up 42% or less over the last three years. Georgia is 1-5 ATS in its last six games following a win.  Roll with Missouri Thursday. 

20* Big East GAME OF THE MONTH on Providence +4 

Providence is squarely on the bubble and needs a win over Creighton to get into the NCAA Tournament.  The Friars will be the more motivated team against a Bluejays team that should be in regardless of what happens in this game. 

Creighton has dealt with some injuries down the stretch that have really hurt this team.  The Bluejays are just 4-5 SU in their last nine games, and 2-7 ATS in their last nine lined games.  They should not be favorites in this matchup. 

Providence beat Creighton 85-71 in their most recent meeting this season.  The Bluejays are 1-8 ATS in road games when revenging a same-season loss over the last three seasons.  Creighton is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet Providence Thursday. 

15* ACC Tournament PLAY OF THE DAY on Clemson -4.5 

The Clemson Tigers have a huge rest advantage over Boston College today.  The Tigers earned a double-bye in the ACC, while Boston College will be playing its 3rd game in 3 days.  Given this advantage, the Tigers should be much bigger favorites here. 

Clemson has owned Boston College, going 6-0 SU & 4-2 ATS in the last six meetings.  Four of those six wins came by double-digits.  The Eagles are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 neutral site games.  Boston College is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 games after scoring 75 points or more in five consecutive games.  Take Clemson Thursday. 

15* Cavs/Nuggets ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Cleveland +3 

The Cleveland Cavaliers don’t have to wait too long for their shot at revenge against the Denver Nuggets.  They just lost at home to the Nuggets on Saturday, March 3rd by a final of 117-126.  Look for them to have their revenge no the road just a few days later here tonight. 

This is a tough spot for the Nuggets, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 107-118 loss to the Dallas Mavericks on the road last night.  The Cavs will be the fresher team after having yesterday off following a 112-90 blowout home win over Detroit on Wednesday.   

The Cavs inserted Larry Nance into the starting lineup, and he delivered with one of the best games of his career.  Their best lineup in terms of plus-minus has been Lebron and the four new players they got via trade, and I think Tyronn Lue has figured that out and will take advantage of it moving forward. 

Plays against any team (Denver) - off a double-digit loss as a favorite of 6 points or more, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 63-29 (68.5%) ATS since 1996.  The Cavs are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games.  The Nuggets are 0-6 ATS in their last six when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.  Cleveland is 4-1-1 ATS in its last six trips to Denver.  Bet the Cavs Wednesday. 

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Orlando Magic +7 

The Orlando Magic have been a nice money maker for backers over the last couple months.  They have gone 16-7 ATS in their last 23 games overall.  Now they are as healthy as they have been all season with the recent returns of Aaron Gordon and Nikola Vucevic to the lineup. 

The Lakers are starting to get too much respect from oddsmakers after going 9-4 SU & 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  Now they are being asked to lay prices that they shouldn’t be.  In fact, this will be just the second time that they have been a favorite of more than 4 points since January 11th. 

The Magic are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games.  Orlando is 6-0 ATS in its last six games following a SU loss of more than 10 points.  The Magic are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games following an ATS loss.  The Lakers are 11-24 ATS off a loss by 6 points or less over the last three seasons.  Roll with the Magic Wednesday. 

25* SEC Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on South Carolina -2.5 

The South Carolina Gamecocks should be getting more respect than they are from oddsmakers as only 2.5-point favorites against Ole Miss in the SEC Tournament opener.  They have gone a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall and are playing their best basketball of the season, beating Auburn, Georgia and LSU all by 9 points each in three of their last six games, while also only losing by 3 at Tennessee, by 4 at Mississippi State and by 9 at Auburn. 

Ole Miss should not be getting this much respect.  The Rebels have been a mess since Andy Kennedy resigned.  They are 1-10 SU & 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  All 10 of those losses have come by 6 points or more as they have rarely even been competitive. 

Ole Miss is 0-8 ATS in Wednesday games over the last two seasons.  The Rebels are 1-9 ATS vs. teams who average 6 or fewer steals per game this season.  The Rebels are 2-15 ATS vs. good ball handling teams that commit 14 or fewer turnovers per game this year.  Bet South Carolina Wednesday. 

15* Atlantic 10 Tournament PLAY OF THE DAY on George Washington -6 

George Washington played its best basketball down the stretch this season.  The Colonials went 5-3 SU & 5-3 ATS over their final eight games with all five of those wins coming by double-digits.  That includes a 72-56 home win over Fordham on February 28th, the same team they will face tonight. 

Fordham was atrocious to close the season.  The Rams went 0-6 SU & 1-5 ATS int heir last six games, losing all six by double-digits.  Now they’ll have to be the road team again here as the Atlantic 10 Tournament will be held on George Washington’s home court in Washington, DC. 

Fordham is 1-9 ATS vs. teams who are called for 17 or fewer fouls per game this season.  George Washington is 6-0 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a losing record this season.  The Rams are 0-6 ATS after allowing 80 or more points over the last two seasons.  These three trends combine for a 21-1 system backing the Colonials.  Take George Washington Wednesday. 

15* Pelicans/Clippers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -2.5 

The Los Angeles Clippers are currently in 9th place in the Western Conference.  They have put themselves in this position by going 23-10 SU in their last 33 games overall.  Doc Rivers is doing one of the best coaching jobs of his career as this cast of players has really gelled as a team. 

There is just 4 games separately 3rd through 10th place in the Western Conference.  The Pelicans are in 4th place currently thanks to their eight-game winning streak.  So they are a team that the Clippers are chasing.  The Clippers will be the more motivated team at home tonight, and I fully expect them to end this streak. 

The Clippers have scored 114 or more points in seven of tier last eight games overall.  They have shot 50% or better from the field in seven of those eight games as well.  The Pelicans are a terrible defensive team, giving up 111.6 points per game on the season, and 117.0 points per game in their last five. 

Plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (New Orleans) - hot team having covered six or seven of their last eight against the spread, with a winning record on the season are 71-35 (67%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Clippers are 20-7 ATS vs. poor defensive teams that allow 106 or more points per game this season.  Los Angeles is 8-0 SU & 6-2 ATS in its last eight home meetings with New Orleans, winning by an average of a whopping 17.5 points per game.  Roll with the Clippers Tuesday.   

20* Rockets/Thunder TNT Tuesday No-Brainer on Oklahoma City +5 

The Oklahoma City Thunder have played their best against the best teams in the NBA.  They have played their worst against the worst teams.  They just have a knack of playing to the level of their competition.  Look for them to come up big tonight and end Houston’s winning streak. 

The Rockets are way overvalued right now due to their 15-game winning streak.  They’re being asked to go on the road and lay 5 points against one of the better teams in the Western Conference.  The Thunder are 3-1 against the Rockets and Warriors this season, the two best teams in the West. 

Plays against road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Houston) - after a win by 6 points or less against opponent after scoring 100 points or more in four consecutive games are 34-11 (75.6%) ATS since 1996. 

The Thunder are 41-18-3 ATS in their last 62 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  Oklahoma City is 13-5 ATS in its last 18 games when playing on two days’ rest.  The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the Thunder Tuesday. 

20* Wake Forest/Syracuse ACC Tournament ANNIHILATOR on Syracuse -4.5 

The Syracuse Orange (19-12, 8-10 ACC) must make a run in the ACC Tournament if they want to make the NCAA Tournament.  They are currently the first team listed on the ‘next four out’ line according to Joe Lunardi.  So they’ll be highly motivated to pick up a few wins here, starting with Wake Forest tonight. 

The Orange helped their cause by beating a ranked Clemson squad 55-52 at home in their regular season finale.  And they will certainly have a home-court advantage with the ACC Tournament being played in their home state of New York inside the Barclays Center in Brooklyn. 

Wake Forest is just 11-19 on the season, including 4-14 SU & 5-13 ATS in ACC play.  The Demon Deacons have been one of the worst teams in the ACC this season.  They should not be getting this much respect tonight from oddsmakers as only 4.5-point underdogs to Syracuse. 

Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Syracuse) - a good team (60% to 80%) playing a bad team (20% to 40%), in March games are 60-35 (63.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Demon Deacons are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games overall.  The Orange are 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet Syracuse Tuesday. 

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on San Antonio Spurs -11 

The San Antonio Spurs come in highly motivated for a victory Monday after losing two straight and six of their last seven.  They also come in rested as this will be just their 3rd game in 8 days.  I expect a big effort from them and a blowout home victory over the lowly Memphis Grizzlies. 

A big reason for the Spurs’ recent struggles has been injuries.  But they have gotten healthier with all this time off as Rudy Gay is returning to the lineup, and LaMarcus Aldridge is likely to return tonight as well.  They only significant player they should be missing is Kawhi Leonard, who has been out for quite some time now. 

The Spurs will be able to get right against a Grizzlies team that is clearly tanking.  The Grizzlies are 0-13 in their last 13 games overall with six double-digit losses along the way.  Now they are in worse shape injury-wise than they have been all season.  The Grizzlies will be without Mike Conley, Tyreke Evans, Mario Chalmers and Andrew Harrison tonight, and Marc Gasol is questionable with an ankle injury. 

The Spurs are 5-0 SU & 4-0-1 ATS in their last five meetings with the Grizzlies, winning their three previous meetings this season by an average of 16 points per game.  The Grizzlies are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games.  Bet the Spurs Monday. 

15* MAC Tournament No-Brainer on Miami Ohio -3 

It’s safe to say that Miami Ohio was already going to be motivated with their season on the line today in the MAC Tournament.  But adding to their motivation is the fact that they have lost twice to Ohio in the last few weeks.  Now they’re playing with double-revenge. 

They just lost at home to Ohio 66-75 on March 2nd in their regular season finale.  With that game fresh in their minds, I think you’ll see their best effort of the season tonight.  It was a rare road win for the Bobcats, who are just 2-9 SU in true road games this season. 

Plays on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Miami Ohio) - revenging a home loss vs. opponent, off an upset loss to a conference opponent as a favorite are 79-36 (68.7%) ATS since 1997. 

Miami Ohio is 9-1 ATS after playing a home game this season.  Ohio is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games following a win.  The Redhawks are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS loss.  Roll with Miami Ohio Monday. 

15* Nets/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -7.5 

The Los Angeles Clippers might be the single-most underrated team in the NBA right now.  They have been on a roll since trading Blake Griffin and their deep roster that is short on superstars but long on hard workers has a lot to do with it. 

The Clippers have gone 22-10 SU In their last 32 games overall to put themselves in position to make the playoffs in the Western Conference at 33-28 on the season.  I think Doc Rivers is doing one of the best coaching jobs of his career, and this squad plays together as a team as well as almost anyone in the NBA. 

The Nets won’t offer much resistance tonight as they are just 2-14 SU in their last 16 games overall.  They are 0-8 SU & 2-6 ATS in their last eight road games, losing six times by 9 points or more. 

The Clippers are 6-0 SU & in their last six home meetings with the Nets, winning by an average of 17.3 points per game.  They have won their last three home meetings with the Nets by an average of 27 points per game.  Roll with the Clippers Sunday. 

20* AAC GAME OF THE MONTH on Tulsa -2 

The Tulsa Golden Hurricane want revenge from a 58-59 road loss at Temple as 8-point underdogs in their first meeting this season.  I expect them to get that revenge with a win and cover as only 2-point home favorites over the Owls at home this time around. 

Tulsa is clearly the better team and has been undervalued most of the season.  They are 18-11 SU & 17-9 ATS in all games.  They are also 12-2 SU at home this season with a very underrated home-court advantage.  They are closing the season strong by going 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS in their final eight games with their only loss coming 74-82 at Cincinnati as 16-point underdogs. 

Temple is just ready to get on to the AAC Tournament.  The Owls are 1-3 in their last four games to fall to 16-13 on the season.  That includes a 21-point home loss to Houston and an upset road loss at Connecticut. 

Tulsa is 9-1 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less or PK over the last three seasons.  The Golden Hurricane are 10-1 ATS in home games vs. teams who are called for 17 or fewer fouls per game after 15-plus games over the last three years.  Bet Tulsa Sunday. 

15* Illinois State/Loyola-Chicago MVC Championship No-Brainer on Illinois State +8.5 

Loyola-Chicago is likely to make the NCAA Tournament no matter what happens in this game Sunday.  The same cannot be said for Illinois State, which needs a win to make the big dance.  And I think that extra motivation for them will be key here. 

I also think this is as simply as it gets because Illinois State played Loyola tough in both meetings during the regular season.  The Redbirds only lost by 7 points at home and by 7 points on the road in their regular season finale.  Now they are getting 8.5 points on a neutral and I believe there to be a ton of value here because of it. 

Illinois State is 9-1 ATS when revenging a same-season loss over the last three seasons.  It is winning by 7.3 points per game on average in this spot.  The Redbirds are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall and continue to lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers here.  Take Illinois State Sunday. 

15* Thunder/Blazers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland -4 

The Portland Trail Blazers beat the Warriors 123-117 at home as 6-point underdogs in their final game prior to the break.  They have used that win as a springboard to go 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  They are also 12-1 SU & 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 home games. 

Now they get to face a tired Oklahoma City squad that will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and its 3rd game in 4 days.  The Thunder were fortunate to escape with a 124-116 win in Phoenix last night after closing the game on an 8-0 run.  They won’t be so fortunate against the Blazers tonight. 

Portland simply owns Oklahoma City, going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  They won by 4 at home and by 11 on the road in their two meetings this season.  Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 10-2 SU In the last 12 meetings.  Portland is 7-0 SU in its last seven home meetings with OKC. 

The Thunder are 2-11 ATS against division opponents this season.  OKC is 3-13 ATS when revenging a same season loss this season.  The Blazers are 8-1 ATS in their last nine home games.  Portland is 9-2-1 ATS in its last 12 vs. Western Conference foes.  The home team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  Roll with the Blazers Saturday. 

25* Celtics/Rockets NBA on ABC GAME OF THE YEAR on Boston +9 

The Boston Celtics came out of the All-Star Break on a mission.  They had lost their final three games prior to the break to fall into second place behind the Raptors in the East.  But they got a healthy Marcus Smart back in the lineup after the break, and he is starting to show his value to the team. 

The Celtics are 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in their four games since the Break.  They won by 12 at Detroit, won by 9 at New York, won by 11 at home over Memphis and won by 28 at home over Charlotte.  Now they have had two days off to get ready for the Houston Rockets.  The Celtics are one of the few teams to have beaten the Rockets this season as they won their lone meeting at home. 

The Rockets are starting to be overvalued now due to their current 14-game winning streak.  No question they are playing well, but now they are being asked to lay a whopping 9 points to one of the best teams in the NBA in the Celtics.  Boston won’t go down without a fight here Saturday night.  The Celtics have only lost six times by double-digits all season.  This won’t be one of those times. 

Houston is 1-8 ATS in non-conference home games this season.  The Rockets are 1-10 ATS off three consecutive covers as a favorite over the last three seasons.  Houston is 4-13 ATS in home games revenging a road loss vs opponent over the last two seasons.  The Rockets are 3-16 ATS after covering the spread in three or more consecutive games over the last three years.  Boston is 10-2 ATS as an underdog this season.  The Celtics are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 road games.  Boston is 5-1 ATS in its last six meetings with Houston.  The underdog is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet the Celtics Saturday. 

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Cleveland Cavaliers -4.5 

After going just 2-3 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall, I believe the Cleveland Cavaliers are now undervalued as just 4.5-point home favorites over the Denver Nuggets tonight.  Look for them to play with a sense of urgency and to get the win and cover to end this rough stretch. 

They get to face the Nuggets rested as they had yesterday off.  Meanwhile, the Nuggets will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after winning 108-102 in Memphis last night.  And this is a Nuggets team that has struggled on the road all season, going just 10-19 SU & 11-16-2 ATS on the highway. 

The Cavs have won their last two home meetings with the Nuggets by 16 and 33 points, respectively.  Denver is 12-26 ATS off a road win over the last three seasons.  The Nuggets are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.  The home team is 3-0-1 ATS in the last four meetings.  Take the Cavaliers Saturday. 

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Notre Dame +9 

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are a bubble team for the NCAA Tournament.  They caught some bad breaks with injuries to their two best players in Bonzie Colson (20.7 ppg, 10.3 rpg) and Matt Farrell (17.1 ppg, 5.4 apg).  Colson missed 15 games while Farrell missed 5 earlier this season, but both are back healthy. 

It has paid huge dividends as the Fighting Irish have stepped up big down the stretch and played up to their potential.  They are 3-1 in their last four games with their only loss coming to Miami by 3 points.  They went on the road and beat Boston College by 17 and Wake Forest by 5, while also crushing Pitt by 17 at home.  Now they’ll be motivated for a win over the No. 1 ranked team in the country in Virginia, which would almost certainly get them off the bubble and into the big dance. 

Virginia has nothing to play for right now.  The Cavaliers have already wrapped up the ACC regular season title and will be a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament no matter what happens from here on out.  They were fortunate to beat Louisville 67-66 last time out on a banked 3-pointer at the buzzer.  I fully expect them to not show up today and for the Fighting Irish to give them a run for the money and stay within this lofty spread. 

Virginia is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games after having won 18 or more of its last 20 games.  The Cavaliers are way overvalued right now due to their ranking.  Bet Notre Dame Saturday. 

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Texas Tech -4.5 

It’s safe to say the Texas Tech Red Raiders will be highly motivated for a victory on Senior Day today.  They are coming off four consecutive losses with three of those coming on the road to Baylor, Oklahoma State and WVU, and the other a tough 2-point home loss to Big 12 champion Kansas.  Look for them to lay it all on the line today to get a win. 

TCU comes in overvalued due to its four-game winning streak both straight up and ATS.  But three of those four games came at home against Oklahoma State, Baylor and Kansas State, and their only road win came against the worst team in the Big 12 in Iowa State. 

Texas Tech is 16-1 at home this season with its only loss coming to Kansas.  The Red Raiders are outscoring their opponents by 18.4 points per game at home this year.  The Horned Frogs are just 3-6 in true road games.  Texas Tech has three key players expected to play that have missed time with injuries prior in Keenan Evans, Zach Smith and Justin Gray.  That should give them a big boost at home today. 

TCU is 5-14 ATS in road games off a win over the last three seasons.  Texas Tech is 8-1 ATS in home games after a combined score of 155 points or more.  Take Texas Tech Saturday. 

15* Michigan/Michigan State Big Ten No-Brainer on Michigan State -3.5 

Michigan will be playing its 3rd game in 3 days here.  The Wolverines were fortunate to get by Iowa in overtime in their Big Ten Tournament opener.  Then Nebraska couldn’t throw the ball in the ocean and shot just 30.2% against them in Game 2, while the Wolverines couldn’t miss from 3-point range.  I think they meet their match here in Michigan State. 

The Spartans are 28-3 this season and vying for a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament.  They will also be motivated to avenge one of their three losses this season, which came in upset fashion 72-82 at home to Michigan.  The Spartans are the fresher team here after receiving the double-bye and playing just one game up to this point.  They are also the more motivated team and should be more than 3.5-point favorites because of it. 

Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Michigan State) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, playing their 2nd game in 3 days are 113-63 (64.2%) ATS since 1997.  The favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Roll with Michigan State Saturday. 

15* Baylor/K-State Big 12 No-Brainer on Kansas State -1.5 

The Kansas State Wildcats are showing excellent value as only 1.5-point home favorites over the Baylor Bears today.  They already beat Baylor 90-83 on the road this season and have their number, going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings. 

Now the Wildcats should be able to handle the Bears at home.  Kansas State is 13-3 at home this season and winning by 11.3 points per game.  Baylor is just 2-8 SU in true road games, losing by 7.4 points per game on average. 

Kansas State will be motivated for a win on Senior Day here, and also to bounce back from two straight road losses to Oklahoma and TCU coming in.  The Wildcats are 10-2 ATS off two straight conference losses over the last three seasons.  Bet Kansas State Saturday. 

15* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Atlanta Hawks +13 

The Atlanta Hawks continue to battle.  They just upset Indiana 107-102 as 4-point home underdogs in their last game and are 4-2 ATS in their last six games.  Now they have the defending champion Warriors coming to town and will certainly be up for this game Friday night. 

The Hawks have been able to play the Warriors extremely tough in recent meetings.  In fact, each of the last four meetings were decided by 10 points or less.  Atlanta hasn’t lost any of its last four home meetings with the Warriors by more than 10 points. 

Atlanta is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games vs. Western Conference foes.  The Hawks are 5-1 ATS in their last six game splaying on one days’ rest.  The Warriors are 2-6 ATS in their last eight road games.  Golden State is 1-4 ATS in its last five vs. Eastern Conference teams.  Take the Hawks Friday. 

25* Big Ten Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Nebraska +4.5 

The Nebraska Cornhuskers have made me more money than any other college basketball team this season. It’s because they have been the single-most underrated team in the country.  I’m not about to buck them now with what’s at stake in the Big Ten Tournament. 

According to Joe Lunardi, Nebraska is a ‘first four out’ team despite going 22-9 overall and 13-5 in Big Ten play to earn a double-bye and the 4th seed.  If that’s not disrespect, I don’t know what is.  So the Huskers will still be playing with a chip on their shoulder here just like they have been all season.  It has propelled them into going a mind-blowing 18-2 ATS in their last 20 games overall. 

Now they get to face a Michigan team that they already beat 72-52 at home in their lone meeting this season.  And it’s a Michigan team that will be playing the second consecutive day after beating Iowa 77-71 in overtime yesterday.  That’s a huge advantage for the Huskers, who will be rested while the Wolverines will be extra fatigued from having to go to OT. 

Nebraska is 9-0 ATS in road games after allowing 30 points or less in the first half of two straight games over the last three seasons.  The Huskers are 10-0 ATS vs. good shooting teams that make 45% of their shots or better after 15-plus games this season.  The Huskers are 13-0 ATS vs. good ball handling teams that commit 14 or fewer turnovers after 15-plus games this year.  These three trends combine for a perfect 32-0 system backing the Huskers.  Bet Nebraska Friday. 

15* Stanford/Arizona Pac-12 Late-Night BAILOUT on Stanford +10.5 

The Arizona Wildcats are a team I really want to fade right now.  I did so with success by fading them at Oregon last time out, and I’ll do so again tonight as they are way overvalued as 10.5-point home favorites over the Stanford Cardinal. 

The reason to fade the Wildcats is all the distractions surrounding head coach Sean Miller and the $100,000 payment that was made to star forward DeAndre Ayton (19.9 ppg, 11.2 rpg).  That’s a lot for a freshman to handle.  The Wildcats are also playing without their best scorer in Alonzo Trier (19.6 ppg), who tested positive for a banned substance and has been ruled ineligible for now. 

Stanford has been one of the most underrated teams in the Pac-12 this season.  The Cardinal are 10-6 SU & 10-6 ATS in conference play.  They will certainly be wanting revenge from a 71-73 home loss as 6-point underdogs to the Wildcats back on January 20th in their first meeting this season. 

Arizona is 1-7 ATS after having won three of their last four games this season.  Stanford is 30-15 ATS in its last 45 road games off a win by 6 points or less.  The Cardinal are 9-1 ATS versus good 3-point shooting teams who make 37% or better after 15-plus games over the last two seasons.  Arizona is 1-7 ATS versus good rebounding teams that outrebound their opponents by 4-plus boards per game this year.  The Cardinal are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Arizona is 1-6-1 ATS in its last eight home games.  The Wildcats are 4-16-1 ATS in their last 21 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with Stanford Thursday. 

20* 76ers/Cavs TNT Thursday No-Brainer on Cleveland -2.5 

The Cleveland Cavaliers are grossly undervalued right now as only 2.5-point home favorites over the Philadelphia 76ers tonight.  They hit a rough patch coming out of the break, which is why the betting public isn’t all over them.  But now it’s time to pounce at this price range as you’ll rarely find the Cavs as this small of a home favorite. 

Conversely, the Philadelphia 76ers are overvalued right now due to their recent seven-game winning streak.  But six of those seven wins were at home with their only road win coming 116-115 as 7.5-point favorites at Chicago.  They have since lost two straight on the road to Washington (94-109) and Miami (101-102).  I faded them in both of those games with success, and I’ll do so again tonight as they continue to get too much respect from oddsmakers. 

Cleveland simply owns Philadelphia.  The Cavs are 11-0 SU in their last 11 meetings with the 76ers, including a 22-point road win and a 7-point home win in their two meetings this season.  The 76ers are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven road games.  Philadelphia is 1-8 ATS in its last nine Thursday games.  The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet the Cavaliers Thursday. 

15* Virginia/Louisville ACC ANNIHILATOR on Louisville +4 

Louisville could really use a win over Virginia to get on the right side of the bubble.  The Cardinals are currently on the ‘last four in’ line according to Joe Lunardi, so they have no room to spare.  A win over the top team in the ACC would do them wonders tonight.   

Not only will they be motivated to punch their tickets to the big dance, they’ll also be motivated because it’s Senior Night and they want to send their seniors out with a memorable victory in their final home game.  The Cardinals also want revenge from a tough 64-74 loss at Virginia as 10.5-point dogs in their first meeting this season on January 31st.  They played them tough four 40 minutes and will certainly do the same at home tonight. 

I really question Virginia’s motivation over these final two games of the regular season.  The Cavaliers already have the ACC title locked up with their 15-1 record.  Even if they were to lose their final two games, they would still be a 1-seed in the NCAA Tournament because everyone is talking about how they are the only sure thing to get a 1-seed.  I doubt they’ll be putting their best foot forward here. 

Louisville is 14-4 at home this season and winning by 12.6 points per game on average.  Three of their four home losses have come by 5 points or less, so they are really close to being 17-1 at home.  They have one of the better home-court advantages in the country and it will certainly be a hostile crowd here on Senior Night with the No. 1 team in the country visiting the KFC Yum Center.  Take Louisville Thursday. 

25* College Basketball GAME OF THE YEAR on Clemson -3 

The Clemson Tigers have many reasons to be motivated for a win today at home against the Florida State Seminoles.  For starters, it’s Senior Night as this will be their final home game.  Look for them to put forth a huge effort tonight to get the win and cover. 

Secondly, Clemson lost 79-81 at Florida State in overtime on February 14th exactly two weeks ago today.  So, they’ll want revenge from that defeat.  Also, the Tigers are looking to get a double-bye in the ACC Tournament.  They are currently tied for 4th place with NC State at 10-6, but they own the tiebreaker so they control their own destiny.  Win out and they will get that double-bye. 

Clemson is 14-1 SU & 9-3 ATS at home this season.  The Tigers are winning by 14.9 points per game on average on their home floor.  Their only loss came to Duke.  Clemson is also 14-6 SU & 15-5 ATS in its last 20 home meetings with Florida State. 

The Seminoles are not playing well at all right now.  They are 2-3 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.  They have lost their last two road games in blowout fashion by 15 at Notre Dame and by 20 at NC State.  They are just 4-6 in true road games this season. 

It’s worth nothing that Shelton Mitchell (11.9 ppg, 3.8 apg) suffered a concussion against Florida State in their previous meeting.  He missed their next two games against Duke and VA Tech, and they went 0-3 in that three-game stretch without him.  But Mitchell returned to score 14 points against Georgia Tech last time out.  They are 21-4 with him fully healthy, and 0-3 when he doesn’t play the full game. 

Clemson is 8-2 ATS as a home favorite or PK this season.  The Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a win.  Plays against road teams as a dog or PK (Florida State) in a game involving two good teams that outscore their opponents by 8-plus points per game, after allowing 75 points or more in three straight games are 71-32 (68.9%) ATS since 1997.  Bet Clemson Wednesday. 

15* Villanova/Seton Hall Big East No-Brainer on Seton Hall +6.5 

The Seton Hall Pirates were getting dangerously close to the bubble with their four-game losing streak to start the month of February.  But this veteran squad has shown their resiliency, going 3-0 in their last three games with a home win over DePaul, and impressive upset road wins at Providence and at St. John’s. 

Now the Pirates are locked in and ready to give Villanova a run for its money tonight.  Seton Hall has gone 13-2 at home this season while winning by 12.6 points per game on average.  And now they get one of their best players in Desi Rodriquez (18.1 ppg, 5.0 rpg) back from an ankle injury just in time to face the Wildcats. 

Villanova has certainly proven vulnerable in recent games.  They are just 3-3 SU and 3-3 ATS in their last six games overall.  They were upset at home by St. John’s 75-79 as 16-point favorites, lost 71-76 at Providence as 9.5-point favorites, and lost 83-89 at Creighton as 7.5-point favorites.  There’s no question the Pirates are capable of upsetting them as well, let alone staying within this lofty 6.5-point spread. 

Seton Hall is 24-11 ATS as an underdog over the last three seasons.  The Pirates are 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  The Wildcats are 2-5 ATS in their last seven trips to Seton Hall.  Roll with Seton Hall Wednesday. 

20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Pistons -1.5 

It’s safe to say the Detroit Pistons will be highly motivated for a victory at home tonight against the Milwaukee Bucks.  They have lost six of their last seven games overall while going 0-8 ATS in their last eight games, which I believe has them way undervalued right now as only 1.5-point favorites in this matchup. 

The Pistons still have a shot to make the playoffs at 28-32 on the season, just 3.5 games back of eighth place in the Eastern Conference.  But if they are going to make a run, it needs to start now.  Look for them to put forth one of their best efforts of the season tonight. 

Meanwhile, the Bucks are in a tough spot here playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after losing at home to the Wizards last night.  And home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 5-0 SU In the last five meetings.  Detroit is 35-13 SU in its last 48 home meetings with Milwaukee. 

Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Detroit) - off a road loss by 10 points or more, in February games are 44-20 (68.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Bucks are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  Bet the Pistons Wednesday. 

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Orlando Magic +9.5 

I’ve been riding the Orlando Magic pretty hard here lately because they have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA since the calendar turned to 2018.  Indeed, they are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games overall.  They just got back two of their best players from injury after the All-Star Break in Aaron Gordon and Nikola Vucevic as well.  Now they are catching a whopping 9.5 points at home to the Toronto Raptors tonight. 

Conversely, the Raptors come in overvalued after going 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall.  They are now having to lay prices that are going to make it very difficult for them to cover.  They are the No. 1 team in the East right now and the betting public has taken notice. 

The Magic have been able to figure out the Raptors.  They are 3-5 SU in the last eight meetings but 6-2 ATS in those eight games.  Only twice have they lost by double-digits during this stretch.  They have won two of the last three meetings outright as 5 and 11-point underdogs. 

The Magic are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games following a loss.  Orlando is 4-0 ATS in its last four games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Magic are 4-1 ATS in their last five home meetings with the Raptors.  Take the Magic Wednesday. 

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Kentucky -8.5

In typical John Calipari fashion at Kentucky, this team is getting better as the season moves along.  It’s easy to see why with the Wildcats.  They are always loaded with freshmen and it takes time for them to learn.  It is also a testament to how underrated a coach Calipari is. 

Indeed, the Wildcats have played some of their best basketball of the season over the last few weeks.  They have gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS while beating Alabama 81-71 as 4.5-point home favorites, Arkansas 87-72 as 5-point road dogs and Missouri 87-66 as 5-point home favorites. 

Kentucky is 22-4 against Ole Miss since 1997, including 10-1 in all home meetings during that stretch.  This Ole Miss team is a mess as Andy Kennedy stepped down as head coach a few weeks ago.  The Rebels have gone 1-8 SU & 1-8 ATS in their last nine games overall.  They are clearly just ready for their season to be over. 

Ole Miss is 0-7 ATS in Wednesday games over the last two seasons.  The Rebels are 4-12 ATS after playing a home game this season.  Ole Miss is 1-9 SU in true road games this year, getting outscored by 12.7 points per game.  The Rebels have lost four of their last five road games by double-digits.  Ole Miss is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Rebels are 2-13 ATS vs. teams who commit 14 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  Take Kentucky Wednesday. 

20* Atlantic 10 GAME OF THE MONTH on St. Bonaventure -2 

St. Bonaventure is currently a bubble team to make the NCAA Tournament.  Win out and they are likely in.  They have put themselves in this position by winning 10 straight games to get to 22-6 on the season. 

Their last loss came on the road at Davidson 73-83 back on January 19th.  So they’ll be out for revenge in the rematch at home this time around.  They’ll also be motivated to win on Senior Night with this tremendous class of seniors.  Not to mention a berth in the big dance is likely at stake tonight. 

The Bonnies are 12-1 at home this season and outscoring their opponents by 14.2 points per game.  The Wildcats are just 7-9 in all road games this year.  They should not be getting this much respect from oddsmakers tonight. 

Davidson doesn’t have a chance to make the NCAA Tournament unless they win the conference tournament.  In a battle between two evenly matched teams, I’ll take the more motivated square at home tonight at an excellent value as only 2-point favorites.  Bet St. Bonaventure Tuesday. 

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Miami Heat +1 

The Philadelphia 76ers are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers right now due to going 7-1 in their last eight games overall.  But six of those seven wins came at home.  Their only road win came 116-115 as 7.5-point favorites at Chicago.  They also lost 94-109 at Washington last time out.  The 76ers are now just 13-17 SU & 13-17 ATS on the road this year. 

The Miami Heat are playing well right now but not getting the respect they deserve.  They are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  They did lost three games straight up, but all three losses came on the road by 3, 2 and 1 point.  They beat Milwaukee by 6 and Memphis by 26 at home. 

That 2-point loss was a 102-104 loss at Philadelphia on February 14th in their final game before the All-Star Break.  That places the Heat in revenge mode at home this time around.  In fact, they have actually lost two road meetings at Philadelphia in the month of February with the other coming by 6 points.  So they are playing with double-revenge. 

The Heat are 5-0 SU in their last five home meetings with the 76ers while winning by a whopping 14.2 points per game on average.  Miami is a perfect 8-0 ATS revenging a close loss vs. opponent by 3 points or less over the last two seasons.  Roll with the Heat Tuesday. 

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Mississippi State -1.5 

The Mississippi State Bulldogs have been one of the most underrated teams in the SEC this season.  There were little expectations coming in, but now sitting at 21-8 and 9-7 within the conference, they have played themselves into the ‘first four out’ line according to Joe Lunardi. 

Obviously, the Bulldogs are going to be highly motivated for a win over Tennessee that would likely get them in the tournament.  They will also be motivated for Senior Night as this is their final home game.  And boy have they been good at home, going 18-1 this season with their only loss coming to the best team in the SEC in Auburn. 

Tennessee has lost two of its last three road games with a 50-78 loss at Alabama and a 62-73 loss at Georgia.  The Vols’ only win came 73-65 at Ole Miss, a team that has basically quit since Andy Kennedy resigned.  The Vols are safely in the tournament and don’t need this win nearly as much as the Bulldogs. 

Mississippi State is 13-4 ATS in home games against conference opponents over the last two seasons.  The Bulldogs are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall.  Mississippi State is 6-0 ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Take Mississippi State Tuesday. 

15* T’Wolves/Kings NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento +5.5 

The Sacramento Kings have been playing some real competitive basketball of late.  They are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall, which includes a 106-111 road loss at Minnesota as 13-point underdogs on February 11th.  Now they will be looking for revenge at home this time around on the Timberwolves. 

The Timberwolves suffered a big blow when Jimmy Butler recently sustained a sprained knee.  He is now going to miss an indefinite amount of time, and there’s no question they are going to miss his leadership, defense and scoring.  They will be vulnerable moving forward. 

The Timberwolves can’t be 5.5-point road favorites without Butler here.  They are just 12-19 SU & 13-16-2 ATS on the road this season.  The Timberwolves are 0-9 ATS in road games versus teams who are outscored by 3-plus points per game in the second half of the season over the last three seasons. 

Minnesota is 1-6 ATS in its last seven road games.  The Timberwolves are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Minnesota is 18-46 ATS in its last 64 games after scoring 120 points or more in its previous game.  The Kings are 5-1 ATS in their last six games when playing on one days’ rest.  Roll with the Kings Monday. 

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Orlando Magic +10 

The Oklahoma City Thunder are in a massive hangover spot here.  They are coming off a road loss to the defending champion Golden State Warriors where tempers were high.  They had won their previous two meetings with the Warriors this season.  Now they’ll have a hard time getting back up to face the Orlando Magic at home tonight and covering this lofty 10-point spread. 

The Magic have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA in 2018.  They have gone 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games overall.  In fact, they have lost by double-digits only twice in their last 18 games, making for a 16-2 system backing them pertaining to this 10-point spread. 

The Magic have been competitive despite the injuries.  And now they are getting healthy and will be a tough out the rest of the way for any team.  Both Aaron Gordon (18.2 ppg, 8.2 rpg) and Nikola Vucevic (17.3 ppg, 9.2 rpg) returned from injury after the All-Star Break, and now that both have a few games under their belts they should have shaken the rust off by now. 

The Magic have been a thorn in OKC’s side.  The Magic are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 meetings with the Thunder.  They have only lost by double-digit to the Thunder once in the last 10 meetings.  Dating back further, the Thunder have only beaten the Magic by double-digits three times in the last 27 meetings, making for a 24-3 system backing Orlando.   

The Thunder are 0-10 ATS when revenging a straight up loss vs. opponent as a road favorite this season.  The Magic beat them 121-108 as 5.5-point home underdogs in their first meeting this season.  Bet the Magic Monday. 

15* Duke/VA Tech ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Virginia Tech +6 

The Virginia Tech Hokies are currently among the ‘last four byes’ according to Joe Lunardi.  They are clearly a bubble team and could really use a signature win here of Duke to punch their ticket to the big dance.  That’s especially the case with a tough road game at Miami coming in their season finale Saturday. 

So it’s clear the Hokies will be highly motivated for a victory tonight for their NCAA Tournament chances.  They will also be motivated because it’s Senior Day and these seniors have really helped turn around this program under Buzz Williams.  They also want to avenge a 52-74 loss at Duke in their first meeting this season. 

I certainly think the Blue Devils are starting to be overvalued after going 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  And they could be looking ahead to their huge showdown Saturday with their biggest rivals in the UNC Tar Heels at home.  Plus they are dealing with the distractions of being named in the FBI probe. 

Virginia Tech is 11-1 ATS when playing its 2nd game in 3 days over the last three seasons.  The Hokies are 8-1 ATS in their last nine Monday games.  The Hokies are 27-12-1 ATS in their last 40 home games.  The home team is a perfect 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings, including an 89-75 upset win over Duke at home last year for the Hokies.  Take Virginia Tech Monday. 

20* 76ers/Wizards ESPN Sunday No-Brainer on Washington -1.5

The Washington Wizards have actually been better without John Wall.  They have gone 8-3 SU & 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  They have wins over the likes of Oklahoma City, Toronto, Indiana and Cleveland during this stretch as well.  They have been consistently undervalued without Wall, and they are actually sharing the basketball better and playing more as a team without him. 

Philadelphia comes into this game way overvalued after going 7-0 SU & 5-2 ATS in its last seven games overall.  But six of those seven games were at home, and they escaped with a 116-115 win at Chicago as 7.5-point favorites in their only road game during this stretch. 

The 76ers are just 13-16 SU & 13-16 ATS on the road this year as they’ve done all their damage at home.  And now they are in a tough spot here as they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days. 

Home-court advantage has been huge recently in this series as the home team is a perfect 6-0 SU in the last six meetings with all six wins coming by 5 points or more.  The 76ers are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games.  Washington is 8-0 ATS in home games off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite over the last three seasons.  These three trends combine for a perfect 19-0 system backing the Wizards tonight.  Take the Wizards Sunday. 

25* Big Ten GAME OF THE YEAR on Nebraska PK 

The Nebraska Cornhuskers have been grossly undervalued all season.  So it’s no surprise that they are once again a pick ‘em at home against Penn State today when they should be laying 5-6 points.  We’ll take advantage and back them on Senior Day in what is a huge game for them to make the NCAA Tournament. 

Despite going 21-9 this season and 12-5 in Big Ten play, which has them in fourth place, the Huskers are actually one of the first teams out according to Joe Lunardi.  He still thinks they have work to do, and they should be motivated by it. 

The Huskers have gone a ridiculous 17-2 ATS in their last 19 games overall.  They have been an extremely tough at out home, going 15-1 SU & 12-2 ATS at home this year with their only loss coming to Kansas by a single point 72-73.  What more does this team have to do to earn some respect? 

Nebraska is a perfect 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in its last five home meetings with Penn State.  The Huskers will also be motivated for revenge from a 74-76 loss at Penn State on January 12th in their first meeting this season.  Nebraska is 8-0 ATS when playing against a team with a winning % from 60% to 80% this season.  Bet Nebraska Sunday. 

15* Michigan State/Wisconsin CBS Early ANNIHILATOR on Wisconsin +8 

The Michigan State Spartans need a win Sunday to avoid sharing the Big Ten title with Purdue and Ohio State.  But that is clearly priced into the line as they are whopping 8-point road favorites at Wisconsin.  I think the value is with the home underdog Badgers because they aren’t going to make it easy for the Spartans. 

Wisconsin comes in playing its best basketball of the season.  The Badgers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  They are 4-1 SU in their last five games with upset road wins at Illinois (78-69) and Northwestern (70-64), as well as home wins over Purdue (57-53) as 11-point dogs and Minnesota (73-63). 

The Badgers would love nothing more than to spoil Michigan State’s Big Ten title hopes, and they’ll also be motivated for Senior Day.  They want revenge from a 61-76 loss at Michigan State as 17-point underdogs in their first meeting this season as well. 

Michigan State is 1-8 ATS in road games off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival over the last two seasons.  Wisconsin is a perfect 6-0 ATS in home games when playing against a top-level team with a winning percentage of greater than 80% over the last two seasons.  It is actually winning these games by 15.7 points per game on average.  Roll with Wisconsin Sunday. 

20* Arizona/Oregon ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Oregon -2 

The Arizona Wildcats are in a tough spot here.  They were already without leading scorer Alonzo Trier (19.6 ppg) due to testing positive for a banned substance recently.  Now it came out on Friday that Sean Miller was caught talking a $100,000 payment to star freshman Deandre Ayton.  He is surely to lose his job, and sanctions will come down.  This is a huge distraction for the Wildcats right now. 

Meanwhile, Oregon is locked in and focused.  The Ducks currently sit at 18-10 on the season and are a bubble team for the NCAA Tournament.  They picked up a huge win against Arizona State on Thursday at home, and now another win over Arizona would go a long way in getting them into the tournament. 

With the way the Ducks are playing at home of late, they should have no problem covering this small 2-point spread.  They are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five home games with a 3-point win over UCLA, an 8-point win over Oregon State, a 25-point win over Washington, a 27-point win over Washington State and a 7-point win over Arizona State.  Arizona needed overtime to beat Oregon State on the road Thursday, and now they will be tired on top of the distractions. 

Oregon is 12-1 ATS off a conference home win over the last two seasons.  The Ducks are 8-1 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 75 points or more over the last three years.  The Wildcats are 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Ducks are 43-21 ATS in their last 64 Pac-12 games.  The Ducks are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet Oregon Saturday. 

15* WCC PLAY OF THE DAY on San Francisco -3.5 

This is an awful spot for the San Diego Toreros.  They just gave Gonzaga all they could handle in a 72-77 home loss.  Now they will clearly suffer a hangover after falling just short against the WCC champs.  They won’t bring the kind of effort it’s going to take to match San Francisco’s intensity Saturday. 

Meanwhile, the Dons want revenge from a 63-73 loss at San Diego in their first meeting this season.  That was a rare loss for San Francisco in this series as they had won their previous four meetings all by 6 points or more.  This is also Senior Night for San Francisco, adding to their motivation. 

The Dons come in playing their best basketball of the season.  They have gone 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with their only loss coming 73-75 as 9.5-point underdogs at BYU.  That includes a 70-63 home upset of St. Mary’s as 9-point underdogs. 

San Francisco is 8-2 ATS in Saturday games this season.  The Dons are 8-2 ATS when playing their 2nd game in 3 days this season.  The Toreros are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a loss.  Roll with San Francisco Saturday. 

15* Auburn/Florida SEC No-Brainer on Florida -2 

The Florida Gators are dangerously playing their way onto the bubble.  They have done so by losing three straight by a combined 11 points coming in.  Now they are desperate for a signature win over the team with the best record in the SEC in Auburn.  I fully expect a big effort from the Gators at home here Saturday to save their season. 

Auburn has been hit hard by the injury bug here of late.  First it was Anferneed McLemore (7.4 ppg, 5.3 rpg) to go down with a season-ending ankle injury on February 17th.  Now it’s second-leading scorer Mustapha Heron (16.1 ppg, 5.4 rpg) who is dealing with the flu and is highly questionable to suit up for this one.  The Tigers are clearly more vulnerable right now than they have been all season. 

Florida simply owns Auburn, going 10-0 SU in the last 10 meetings, and 23-3 SU in the last 26 meetings.  The Gators are 11-0 SU in their last 11 home meetings with the Tigers.  Florida is 34-14 ATS in its last 48 after failing to cover the spread in three or more consecutive games.  Roll with Florida Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma -3.5 

This is the ultimate ‘get right’ spot for the Oklahoma Sooners.  They have lost six straight games coming in and are now back to being undervalued after being overvalued for the majority of conference season following their hot start in non-conference play. 

This 0-6 stretch is understandable considering the Sooners have played four of their last six games on the road with home losses to WVU by 2 and Texas by 11.  Now they face a team they can handle in Kansas State, and they are certainly going to want some revenge after losing to the Wildcats in Manhattan in their first meeting this season. 

The Sooners are 11-2 at home this season and scoring 93.2 points per game.  The home team is 9-2 SU in the last 11 meetings.  The Wildcats are 0-6 ATS off three or more consecutive wins this season.  They are clearly overvalued right now.  Look for a huge effort from the home team tonight.  Take Oklahoma Saturday. 

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on West Virginia -16 

The Iowa State Cyclones are an absolute mess right now.  They are without three of their best players in Donovan Jackson (15.4 ppg), Nick Weiler-Babb (13.3 ppg, 6.8 apg) and Solomon Young (7.2 ppg, 5.9 rpg).  That leaves them extremely short-handed heading into this game with West Virginia. 

That makes this a terrible matchup for the Cyclones against WVU’s press.  The Cyclones only played seven players against TCU on Wednesday.  They even had Jackson for that game, but he has decided to take some extra time off to mourn the loss of his father.  Iowa State will wear down quickly in this one and will be begging for mercy by halftime. 

West Virginia will have no mercy considering they lost to Iowa State 77-93 on the road in the first meeting. Now the Cyclones have to hit the road, where they have been atrocious.  Indeed, the Cyclones are 0-8 & 1-7 ATS in true road games this season, losing by a whopping 14.0 points per game on average.  And they were healthy for almost all of those games, which isn’t the case now. 

Iowa State is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 road games after playing five consecutive games as an underdog.  The Cyclones are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 road games.  The Mountaineers are 12-3 at home this season and winning by 20.8 points per game on average.  Bet West Virginia Saturday.